tv Inside Story 2017 Ep 333 Al Jazeera December 1, 2017 10:32am-11:01am +03
barrels and ruin your repeated use of arrived in these refugee camps in the last couple of months. it's about his new president to emerson more non-god has announced his cabinet it includes politicians loyal to the ruling party and members of the military who helped form a leader robert mugabe. people in honduras of protests against the long time it's taken to count the ballots from the presidential election supporters of the main opposition candidate salvador threw rocks and sits barricades on fire outside the electoral center that's where the final votes of sunday's poll are being tallied the opposition is accusing the government of trying to steal the election. japan's emperor akihito is to step down in april two thousand and nineteen making him the first monarch to abdicate in two hundred years. cities age and health would make it difficult for him to fulfill his duties the eighty three year old will be succeeded by his son crown prince now though he too the argentinian navy has ended the search
for the crew of the missing submarine contact with the sun one was lost on november the thirteenth aircraft and ships from eighteen countries have been looking for the submarine forty four people were on board. those are the headlines the news continues on al-jazeera of the inside story. in jakarta school students are taking up weapons to fight in deadly street battles. one on one east investigates this violin phenomenon. at this time on al jazeera. more demands from the u.s. aimed at china from the united states after north korea's latest missile with the government in pyongyang claiming the u.s. mainland is now the bridge will be taking action and help diffuse the crisis this is inside story.
hello and welcome to the program today with me this one was bigger and more powerful and it set off the alarm bells in capitals around the world especially in washington after successfully testing a new type of intercontinental ballistic missile north korea says it could hit the u.s. mainland pyongyang's bold declaration and the boldness of its leader kim jong un has done little to ease fears of a nuclear showdown which would inevitably pull in south korea as ever right in the middle so now the white house is today urging all nations to cut ties with north korea we'll get to our panel in just a moment but first kathy novak reports from seoul. following the latest in a series of ballistic missile launches north korea says its rocket weaponry system
development is complete and it's finally a nuclear state the day after firing what the north says is its most advanced intercontinental ballistic missile yet state t.v. showed leader kim jong un overseeing the night time test the u.s. president again called kim little rocket men and added a new unflattering description. little rocket man rocket fuel for the american guy . is a sick puppy for the ninth time this year the united nations security council discussed yet another crisis centered on north korea this test is another confirmation that the north korean threat has changed dramatically you know humans both in scope and scale the threat us shifted from being regional to global.
and from the u.s. ambassador a direct plea to china to exert greater economic pressure on its ally and neighbor we need china to do more president called chinese president xi this morning and told him that we have come to the point that china must cut off the oil from north korea that would be a pivotal step in the world's effort to stop this international pariah but no such pledge from china instead it called again on the u.s. to explore a freeze for freeze scenario in which north korea would slow its missile program if the u.s. and south korea lowered their military posture on the peninsula this position supported by russia. we proposed a solution based along the principle of suspension for suspension which in visions of d.p. r. k. stopping missile tests while at the same time the u.s. and south korea decreasing the scale of their military exercises this in turn will pave the way for the principles of peaceful coexistence and peaceful discussions
between washington and pyongyang. but this has been repeatedly and vehemently ruled out by the u.s. another round of joint exercises between the u.s. and south korean military forces are due to start here next week north korea has said the drills are a rehearsal for war at the united nations america's ambassador has said the u.s. doesn't seek war but if it does start north korea's leaders would be in her words utterly destroyed calving know that al-jazeera seoul. ok let's bring in our guests joining us now to beijing back to go director of the china maschler sociate of international studies in washington we have richard white's director of the center for political military analysis at the hudson institute and joining us on skype to taipei roster all fine gold asia political risk analyst welcome to you all that coming to you first nikki haley is saying all
nations should cut ties with north korea how likely is that i think china has expressed the firm position that denuclearization is the ultimate goal that we all need to work towards however each country should have the freedom to decide what's the best way to proceed is specially under the umbrella of the united nations security council resolutions and i think china will do this in this spirit and the ultimate goal is inevitably the denuclearization but china does not want to be forestalled pressured by any other country as to what's the right thing to do what's the wrong thing to do and china has pressured the united states to do the right thing that is to enter into direct negotiation with deep eochaid to achieve denuclearization richard whites in washington nikki haley also saying that if it comes to it north korea will be quote utterly destroyed that surely is no more than
a red rag to a bull. i think that the concern among the administration is that the leadership in and counting has not fully assess the risks of its current course of action i mean so far it's been able to test missile after missile a nuclear weapon after nuclear weapon and suffer sanctions think increasingly severe but really doesn't seem to be thinking through the consequences of where this could lead and i think that the speech which is what was dramatic and of course echoes some of the president's rhetoric was a desire to frighten the north koreans enough and to think to sitting back and thinking about what we're going to end up with at this position continues and it was also an indirect means to put pressure on china russia and others to take a firm stand if they think through the consequences as well most are also angled in taipei they haven't thought through the consequences of the risk of sounding a bit so caustic why would you say they haven't so far and no amount of strong
language no amount of u.n. resolutions passed made them do that. well this actually goes to why the trump administration including the president as well as the senior foreign policy team have been very critical of past approaches not just under the obama administration but the bush administration as well and yeah that goes to your point why would they because previous presidents in the united states and frankly other nations that are stakeholders in the situation have allowed north korea to get away with its behavior for far too long without sufficient consequences so of course north korea feels that the you know national community is not going to do enough is not going to take those necessary steps so they continue to do what they're doing and hence we see the trump administration saying we're not going to continue on the same path that previous administrations or the international community failed that previously let's talk about the obama administration's the next couple of minutes but to go the obama administration was either according to its critics feckless and this
policy of patients was never ever going to work. no i think at this particular moment it's not that meaningful to argue about whether president obama did the right thing or marte i think the more urgent and pressing question is what is the better thing to do right now involving all the countries i would say close cooperation between china and the united states is crucially a very important ingredient in whatever final solution there may be to the denuclearization of the korean peninsula however from the chinese perspective the united states is not doing the right thing the united states is asking china to do more on the korean peninsula but the united states is insulting and humiliating china are many other fronts and this is not a consistent message from washington i think the better message from washington is to create consistency and continuities of its positions and asking china really to
get along with the united states i think in this way china and the united states will be better to coordinate their actions on the d.p. r. k. nuclear weapon question but also on other major issues in the world involving major international issues but also major pilots are all issues between china and the united states richard waits in washington there are military exercises planned for just around the corner if those military exercises were canceled or delayed would that help because you then give you then give a signal surely to pyongyang that china is not going to wobble because pyongyang needs to know that that security aspect is there and arguably the south koreans would be happy as well the idea i can't tell when these exercises is something that originally it was proposed by tying are and it's now been picked up by the russians and the idea is you have this freeze for three is the sanctions for a suspension so north korea starts testing us or start testing nuclear weapons in
the united states and korea stop. major military exercises and possibly put constraints on the missile defenses and then coordinate the russians us with lead to a further phase of bilateral negotiations with the third stage mean a comprehensive peace agreement all fine and good except that there is no evidence that north korea has shown any interest in this idea there is also a clear problem in that what the u.s. and south korea are doing the military exercises are legal under international law what north korea is doing is not legal fundamentally though i agree with victor gao that it's really important for china and i think it's work well on this issue and i agree that sometimes the because of such a complex relationship we have copyright in some areas and disagree and others we end up with this problem of priorities and i think are really important for the thompson ministration to prioritize the korea issue over the other areas in dispute
such as economic and so on which they were doing initially but it's a message it's become a little less clear recently how it's like to really i agree with victor when to reaffirm the centrale of the that but i disagree that this freeze for freeze supposable would really make any progress at this point given how much capability north korea has given their lack of interest senate and given the challenges it would present in terms of the equivalence it would suggest with what the u.s. is doing with north korea's doing roshi were trying to come in there what was your point. well i think there's some inconsistency is in victor's position because we do have to look at the mistakes of the obama administration because frankly that's why we got here it's not just the ministration it's the international community the efforts of some countries to be north korea's friend have not worked out trading with them allow the north korea regime to further build its missile a nuclear programs so yes there might be a need to do a humanitarian business with north korea so that people have food but beyond that
trading with north korea to make a profit or in the hopes that doing business with them would result in a more enlightened country just hasn't worked out so we do have to look back and see what mistakes that previous u.s. administrations or other governments have made in dealing with north korea because that informs what decisions we will make going forward think to going forward are there any other lever's that beijing can put pressure on here because beijing obviously does not want to be pressurized itself point number one point number two it might be happy quietly in darker rooms it might be happy with the idea of regime change but it doesn't want regime collapse because it does not want hundreds of thousands of north koreans trying to get across the border no i would say up to today all the efforts that deal who cries ation and slowing down the nuclear weapon program the launch vehicle program of the palkee have failed china the united
states russia japan as of korea all these countries and the united states have failed in their efforts the only country which has seoul fall wotton in promoting its own strategic objective is d p r k has scaled one milestone after another in strengthening its nuclear weapon capacity and launch vehicle capacity therefore i think all the countries who genuinely want to achieve denuclearization on the korean peninsula need. to close rank and stop bickering about it and try to really parcel out responsibility onto each other as if that will solve the nuclear weapons program itself i think coles closing round between china and the united states is the most important thing and it will require all the incentives from china from the united states to do the right thing together because otherwise is d p r k make it
away from this they may split china away from the united states they may split the united states away from china and continue to be at the strategic and tactical successes they have accumulated i think time is passing out and the tipping point is getting very close but china and the united states really need to get down to the same page get into the same bolt in how to come up with a clear cut to strategy and tactic in achieving this goal every two countries have to see eye to eye on this major issue richard just come back to you for a brief second if there is an overarching principle here of diluting all the issues and getting everyone into the same place on to the same page surely mr trump did not do the best thing by putting north korea on the list of state sponsors of terrorism. ok i just want to actually come back to your question to victor i thought it was really fundamental i think that was the basis of the u.s. strategy so far the assumption that at some point the chinese would
recognize it was in their interest to have a unified korea or a korea with a different type of regime at least the north then what we have now i think that was basically the strategy that some point russia china and the us would agree that we should put enough pressure on north korea so that the current leader is removed from power perhaps with chinese assistance i think with the hope in washington if not stated and i think you did hear chinese talk about that the from their point of view the regime in north korea the current leader a ship was causing them so many security problems that it would be better to receive a unified korea under something that looks like what we have now in south korea but unfortunately a last few years perhaps because of the tightening ties between japan south korea
and the u.s. on security issues i seem less indication of that so i think a few years ago in the back rooms in private talks chinese would say yes they better to have a unified korea and rather than we have now now you hear that less than you mention the that you mentioned then that more tactical question about trumps the sign put north korean lesson of supporting terrorism. you know that may have been a mistaken tactic or bad timing but i think the north koreans were going to test inevitably i think i think it was just a matter of time and you're going to keep on going until we end up with the new leadership in north korea and i think we grieve course we don't want to process the chaotic but i think that's the endgame we should aim for well presidential trump today of course took to twitter to always does during his opinion on the latest chinese efforts to resolve the standoff the chinese. 's envoy who just returned from north korea seems to have had no impact on little rocket man hard to believe his people and the military put up with living in such horrible conditions russia
and china condemned the launch will settle feingold in taipei this idea of a unified korea even if you could get china to accept that might that fly if they could build in certain guarantees because it's not just a leader that would have to go for it the tens of thousands of officials and civil servants they would want literally guarantees for their financial security the security of their families as well woods that whole supply complete the chicks all it's so speculative and frankly it doesn't go to the more immediate issues with that that are the missile tests and the nuclear program the other misbehaviors of north korea whether it's proliferation dealing in drugs counterfeit currency hacking there is so much misbehavior by north korea that needs to be dealt with immediately that discussions about the regime change and whether or not china would support unify korea is just so speculative and far off to the point where it might
be unproductive and we don't know how china really feels about this and we don't know how south korea feels about this because the expectation is the south korean taxpayer would have to foot the bill for the uniform as costs of unification and in frankly we have a new south korean president who campaigned on a platform of discussions with north korea and we see how that's worked out the result has been worth korea continuing with its mis behaviors so regime changes is probably not something that's going to occur in the near term and it's unlikely that china really supports that which brings us back to dealing with the more immediate issues of the missile and nuclear programs. victor coming back to you for a second there is a school of thought that says if pyongyang does something appalling first that is in effect assisted suicide because this is something that mcmaster the u.s.
national security advisor has hinted at he's basically said look pyongyang has got x. number of nuclear warheads but we've got so many more and we will react no i think at this particular moment any talk about complete annihilation of. any talk about regime change any talk about. getting rid of the current regime in d.v.r. k. is not can structure of talk at all because put yourself into the mentality of the leaders in d p r k do you really force them into a deeper bunker mentality and this probably is one of the reasons why the rush and raise towards having the bomb and having more of the bombs and more sophisticated bombs and to achieve large capacities to reach every quarter in the world we need to create a situation where they do not need to worry about their survivability where they do not near really need to worry about the survivability of their own lives where they
me they may need to have a greater sense of security whatever we do to achieve that that's another technical issue but that will create a better condition whereby they will realize that nuclear weapons are no longer that much needed and they can even destroy that or do away with that and i think that will be a better situation talking about. launch a war which may eventually require the use of nuclear war is calamity to mankind and i think any person with the decency of the mind should walk away for any thought about that we need to keep peace in the korean peninsula we need to do away with any thought by whichever country of using nuclear weapons to achieve any goal on the korean peninsula ross from your vantage point if you're trying to predict for us the chinese reaction to this i mean everyone except the united states here
is basically saying look mutually assured self-destruction would never work but might the political dynamic that leads to that stance work if you get to a stage where for example the u.s. guarantees the security of south korea and china guarantees the security of north korea and there is a political cold war a microcosm of a political cold war on the peninsula. well the challenge with that concept is it's not historically been something that the people's republic of china seeks to do with its neighbors or its allies enter into that kind of relationship and then the result would be it's frankly squaring off against the united states south korea military alliance as well as potentially the u.s. japanese military alliance so it's very unlikely that china would be willing to do that and just to go back to victor's points in calling on the u.s.
really to do more and the u.s. to see eye to eye with china on what the right approach is it's really you know accurate to put the blame for this situation or for resolving it in a peaceful manner on united states and where the trump administration were in this situation because of the decisions made by warthe korea and frankly up to now china has continued to support those decisions now all even though there are in forcing some of the sanctions they're still doing a level of trade with north korea which allows a good north korean government to continue to pursue these programs so to put the blame on the united states or south korea or japan is bordering on the farcical the problem here is worth korea and we shouldn't lose sight of that let's talk about to washington richard whites is the forest is it time for somebody to gets to the north korean leadership and teach them a little bit of
a history lesson to say look one hundred fifty to one nine hundred fifty three there was a horrible war one hundred eighty thousand people died that seems to be something that the north korean leadership simply does not want to engage with. right i would agree that the current leadership doesn't want a war they want to gain everything they can without a war so what they want is fair enough for us our kitties that were just mentioned they're engaged they want to and the only gauge without interruption they want to be able to make provocations against south korea japan not have to worry about u.s. military intervention i think that's why they're trying to gain the capacity to launch a warhead against a us city. and that's you know so we could say you're going to have a massive war if you in continuous activities are really isn't that credible to make it as a direct threat i think that's why how i interpret the strategy of. ambassador haley for example by saying that even if it's not paying attention of the united
states have a war it will you couldn't you can think of many possible past a war if we continue on this current this current situation there could be a misfired north korean missile there could be a miscommunication misinterpretation and i think that may communicate the kind of warnings we want but i still think it's got to be something that's going to trigger some kind of internal coup for some radical change within north korea ok the current leadership appears to be. hardening to these kind of communities a message of can i just very quickly lost all three of you the same question and i want you to and so yes or no victor in beijing will the be a nuclear conflict yes or no no i don't see any reason for that richard yes or no a nuclear war no not a deliberate one not a deliberate one interesting on rolf's nuclear conflict and i know that all that
some worry about no but these decisions are up to the north koreans. gentlemen we have to leave it there many thanks for your time today here on inside story thanks to all our guests we were joined by the richard whites and ross daryl feingold and thank you to you too for your company you can see the program again anytime on our website al-jazeera dot com and for further discussion check out our facebook page that's facebook dot com forward slash inside story you can also join the conversation on twitter our handle at a.j. inside story or i'm at peta don't be one for me peter davi on the entire team here in doha thanks for watching we'll do it all again at the usual time tomorrow. news has never been more available it's a constant barrage of it with every day but the message is a simplistic you have the brain a good logical rational people versus crazy monsters and misinformation is rife
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