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tv   Counting the Cost 2017 Ep 48  Al Jazeera  December 3, 2017 6:32am-7:01am +03

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nations nikki haley says the agreement is inconsistent with u.s. policies. pope francis has defended his silence in minamata over the plight of range of refugees saying he spoke the truth in private he's been facing international criticism for not directly addressing the crisis during his visit earlier this week the pontiff didn't mention the ethnic minority until he was in bangladesh where he met ranger would escape the military crackdown across the border. i mean. i was interested in my message getting through so i saw that in my speech if i'd use that word the door would have slammed shot describe the situation the riots that no one should be excluded citizenship to allow me in my private meetings to go further i was very very satisfied with the discussions i was able to have egyptian presidential hopeful ahmed shafik has reportedly arrived in a carrot after being arrested and deported from the united arab emirates had been based in the u.a.e. since losing to the muslim brotherhood candidate mohamed morsi in egypt's twenty
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twelve presidential election the former prime minister and air force commander announced last week he plans to run for president in twenty eighteen incumbent president abdel fattah el-sisi is widely expected to seek another term but those were the headlines the news continues here on al-jazeera after counting the cost statement that's a lot of. documentaries . at this time. round. oh i'm has i'm sick of this is counting the cost on to your weekly look at the world of business and economics this week oil sweet spot what price does a barrel of oil have to be so that consumers and producers benefit also this week
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bitcoins making headlines again but the biggest names in finance can't agree on what it's worth plus african and european union leaders have condemned the refugee slave trade in libya but still no real details on how to stop the smuggling. so what is the ideal price of a barrel of oil well that's something that opec and its allies had to think long and hard about this week in vienna but agreeing to keep a tight lid on crude oil supplies to boost prices involve some tough negotiations here's paul brennan. question marks going into this opec meeting was whether russia would insist that the declaration of cooperation should be shorter should go from march maybe to the middle of next year in fact the message coming out of this meeting from opec and opec nations alike is one of reassurance what they've done is effectively amend the declaration of corporation it won't start from march of next
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year it will actually start from the first of january they've amended it so it's a one year agreement and that is intended to send a message of stability and reassurance to the markets it's likely to have the desired effect i think as far as rumors going around here that russia was exerting perhaps over and june influence over the the negotiations and the considerations the president of opec was at pains to say there is no light between himself and his russian counterpart he said they stand shoulder to shoulder they are totally in alignment and the other thing to say is that opec has said that look i know that they're going to keep this agreement in place through to the end of two thousand and eighteen but if the market conditions change there will be the capacity to be nimble about it the three driving factors he said in response to the markets over the next twelve months will be the supply the demand and the inventors so joining
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us now from london is dr manish tech in a global oil and energy consultant thanks for being with us so we talk about an oil sweet spot what do you what do you think it is that sweet spot for what is the best the idea of price right now for both oil producers and consumers well that is of course a very good question but there is no simple answer i wish i knew but i'll pick and the oil industry in general through its history as always try to balance that. if the price is too high of course then they would become pretty two to oil and they would lose that the producers will lose market share and if their price is. too low then they will be to watch demand and will be shortage of supply and this cycle has been repeated so many times and where we are now in the last two three years has been the cycle of excess supply because of technological improvements shade or and
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because of a guy decided not to have any control but sense beginning of this year the producers are time interesting lee has been countries the fourteen countries plus russia and few other non opec countries interest really joined forces and since the beginning of this year they have reduced their supply by about one point eight million barrels per day totally and although people had been the skeptics i mean observers were the skeptic and negative read their outlook at the beginning i think they all agree in our dot servers and the city exists and information showed that this group and i know pick have been relatively well disciplined and they have done what they had promised morris and so the prices have improved nevertheless some countries are more desperate than others to see higher prices because of their say the state of their economies and their budgets and so on which ones would you say are are more desperate to see that. i think most oil producers are in the case of
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venues elaborate comes to my mind which is has a financial serious financial problem shortages of food and imports problems but that is partly political but in reality it is the revenue of oil which has fallen in the last two three years which has put so much pressure on venezuela but then let's not forget the richest countries saudi arabia itself is also under stress because the saudi economic policies and its budgets and so on where based on the assumption of in two three years ago of eighty dollars one hundred dollars two hundred twenty dollars a barrel and then they get a fair to about forty or thirty dollars two years ago of course it has put pressure on the stress even under a rich country like saudi arabia and so i think i wouldn't say which one all of them are so what does all of this mean then for for consumers we're going to see higher higher prices at the pump then what's going to be for the rest of us well on
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the crude price when we talk about the consumers there are two important aspects one is the price of crude in the international market that you're talking about everyone knows but another one another factor is the taxation on petroleum products so we talk about the consumers people going taking their cars and to the petrol station to fill their tanks they are paying in some cases seventy percent eighty percent tax. to their own governments in the united kingdom in france and europe in japan there is a high taxation in united states is probably about thirty percent so i think the consumers so to speak would benefit when the price of crude comes down but not to the extent that the price has fallen you know hundred fifteen to about fifty sixty dollars no they are paying more taxes so as for the former consumers concerned in london for example the price hasn't gone down that much good to speak with your manager tacon joining us there from london thank you you're welcome all right still
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to come on counting the cost financial bubbles and speculation are nothing new well look at the psychology behind things like to look mania and ask if the current bitcoin craze is indeed a bubble waiting to burst. first on last week's show we looked at how a modern day slave trade was operating in libya this week leaders there agreed to evacuate refugees and migrants facing abuse in detention camps the plan has been drawn up at a joint e.u. african union summit in ivory coast it's not clear how the deal will be enforced but migrants are expected to be sent back mainly to their home countries the tatar butler reports from abidjan. the message should fit and i worked on african and european union leaders condemned the refugee slave trade in libya in their final statement they promised a task force to tackle traffickers and urgently repatriate anyone who's trapped
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there the fun it is on fire just on those units you just there are women and children living in inhuman conditions we have agreed along with the e.u. and the un to set up a task force for repatriating at least three thousand eight hundred people the. leaders say there are more than forty refugee camps in libya where people are bought and sold by those with little respect for human life. well the leaders here have committed to helping refugees in libya there were very few details as to exactly how and when they will repair create them and they were also very very good about the new task force they say they'll put in place to combat people smuggling so. there was also no mention of the french president's remarks to reporters that military action against traffickers is a possibility the u.n. secretary general told summit leaders on wednesday that new ideas a needed to deal with migration including more legal ways to into europe is that
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something that you discussed and something which you wouldn't visit each you have to. strengthen the throat of legal immigration but that the same time we have to stop to get the illegal migration this is our. common obligation youth workers say until young people have real opportunities little change we want next time african leaders in rebel leaders to come together and say we are going to support two hundred five hundred one thousand youth start up but from africa and from europe and here are the resources that we put in place those are practical things to do you see of telling us in the declaration that yes we are going to empower the end people but how are we going to empower the people there's no doubt that ending the slave trade is an urgent priority but unless gnostic solutions a found to persuade people to stop leaving home in the first place human rights
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abuses will continue to affect africa's most fun mobile that's been a roller coaster week for bitcoin which saw values soar past an all time high of eleven thousand dollars this week but then they dramatically reversed lower bitcoin and bubble are now two words the most people use when describing the cryptocurrency skeptics say it's value has no relation to the real financial market or the economy because when believers say it is the future of finance well reynolds has more. but a year ago you could buy one bitcoin for about seven hundred thirty dollars in currency exchange sites online now the same bad coin is worth nearly ten thousand dollars why most likely it is because there's a lot of speculators that have seen the rapid price rise and bitcoin and decided that this would be a good gamble for them to get in there have been signs the financial world has become more accepting of the virtual currency japan has recognized it as an
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official method of payment and the world's largest derivatives exchange operator c.m.e. group plans to start offering bitcoin futures before yours and bitcoins market capitalization is now larger than giant reality based companies like walt disney and i.b.m. investors have taken notice point base a popular online trading platform now has more than thirteen million users up more than three hundred thousand in the past week alone some financial experts see the rapid run up in bitcoins price as a classic symptom of economic delusion bitcoin as a speculative bubble the only question is when it's going to burst and who's going to be left holding the bag in the end the people that are holding it will hold something that is worth nothing big going trading as historically been extremely volatile with the price spiking and crashing as it did in two thousand and thirteen and two thousand and fourteen and bitcoin has also been linked to crime as hackers
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narcotics sellers and child pornography peddlers prefer the anonymity it provides for illicit transactions. history has shown that every so often investors can get caught up in a bubble and asset bubble happens when human emotion takes over markets the belief that we are in a new era where the price of something can only move in one direction this is known as the wow factor in the higher the prices go the more convinced investors become that they will keep going up the bubble burst when investors are no longer willing to buy at the inflated price in a massive selloff sends it into a freefall and more recently there been two major bubbles the dot com boom and bust of the late one nine hundred ninety s. and the housing bubble in two thousand and seven to two thousand and eight or the first recorded speculative bubble happened in holland back in the sixteen hundreds to that mania crashed horribly taking a lot of the dutch economy with it so joining us now from london is matthew nighty
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is a digital strategist and blogger thanks very much for being with us has a speculative nature of what we're seeing with big coin and its price surge compare with previous bubbles. well i think the difference is technology this is not just about people who have access to trading floors and markets in auctions it's very easy for anybody to install an application a wallet on their phone and just put one or two pounds in and i think that's what is driving a large portion of its growth it's not too dissimilar to a lottery where you go well you know i'm going to lose a pound worst case scenario if i don't get anything back from the lottery but the benefits hey you see that pound grow to two pounds three pounds you know if you've had money in there over twelve months ago you've seen a significant return on that investment and that compels you to say well maybe to put a little bit more in a little bit more and continue to see that investment grow the risk is of course
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that if there is a sudden run on those markets and people start to extract that bitcoin and convert it back into currency there isn't necessarily the security there to protect those investments so where's that money going to be coming from the reality is you can't really buy any think with bitcoin at the moment you have to generally convert into another currency they're obviously plenty of stories around dot dot markets and the run somewhere attacks that we saw a couple of months ago being exchange in in bit corny crypto currencies but the reality is the value is purely speculative and i think when that bubble burst they can see a lot of people losing a significant amount of investment i guess the difference is that you've had a cheer up volpe in the previous example but now it's literally a virtual currency and that's i think personally another reason why i think this is such a growth curve that we're saying it's it's just a number on a screen it's relatively easy to see it on one bank balance having
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a ten dollar amount and then seeing it transferred to another screen it's a little bit like playing with monopoly money so what do you think drives the psychology of investors when they look at the coin. i think there is. a desire to see a huge return on investment and they are seeing that there's a confirmation bias in effect that they're seeing that growth. but i think what is fueling a large amount of the market is those investors who don't necessarily have the heritage who know how to read the markets who know how to balance that risk and it seems like a relatively easy investment with high rewards the reality is that the markets just aren't normalizing we don't know where this is going to go the larger organizations the hedge funds the government you know the japanese government seem relatively supportive of crypto currency whereas china is fairly anti it they're looking at the larger market not just bitcoin but crypto currency at large there's
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a big difference between the block chain the actual technology and the cryptography which sits behind this that enables these transfer value exchange and i think that's not going to work go away. because itself does seem to be something which is extremely volatile but it's very easy when you're seeing large numbers being reported in the press day on day about this huge dramatic growth you know we saw a thousand dollar increase in value in just the case of kind of twelve twenty four hours so that's very easy to just jump on and go oh well i'll have a little bit of that and see your value increase i think the biggest challenge is it's very easy to buy portions of bitcoin but it's relatively hard to get that money back out of the system again and what's distinctive about big corners well is is that it's an unregulated currency largely no one owns the bitcoin network it's not tied to any government or country does that add to the uncertainty about its
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future or is that in fact what makes it attractive to many investors yes to both questions it certainly drives it's on certainty and. bitcoin itself is recently fort into two different versions of its own currency because of a disagreement within the developer community of who actually creates this software that allows it to to exist so yeah there is a huge amount of volatility volatility from the software itself the way that the market works from investors from people taking money out of that system but as you mentioned it's deregulated it's decentralized i think as far as crypto currency is concerned certainly the block chain we are set to see that only increase in its strength in its use across private markets of potentially nations looking at how they can use crypto currency in the block chain to create more secure and authentic transactions especially across borders that's one of the most powerful things
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around crypto currency is that the transfer across borders is so much easier than with currency so it has. complete felicity in terms of a transfer mechanism but there's just not enough of a secured growth an understanding of how the patterns work yet for any kind of significant investors to say this is something which we want to put as a long term investment it's just too risky and has many similarities to day trading at the moment good to speak with you matthew knight joining us from london thank you thank you i want to vest is corbet point above all they are not so dismissive of the technology behind it the idea underlying bitcoin is called block chain give you the power has more on this from hong kong. hong kong has always positioned itself on the cutting edge as a financial industry which is why the buzzword at this annual conference is blocking and how the entire trading world can cash in on the technology the time warner it comes at
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a price it is posing new regulatory challenges but the speed with which technological changes are taking place are much higher than we've seen before and secondly new entrants new entrants which are in particular startups but also big tech companies an example would be trying to contain the cryptocurrency phenomena in two thousand and nine bitcoin was the first to enter the scene using block change technology there are now hundreds of crypto currency set here for the problem lies they cannot be treated like pass the script a card jesus actually is open for future use and in most cases that you said you have to be defined so that created a lot of speculation making it a highly volatile investment for large gains and losses can be made very quickly for this reason and september mainland china suspended the trading of crypto currency and banned the launch of new ones or initial calling offering forcing
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companies like this one to shut down their trading platforms across the board or its founder agrees new regulations are needed but such drastic actions are not necessary in hong kong. when you're blocking the trip by going right now at retail manager background and we share actually similar beat to the regulators to the rest protections and the money laundering top securities the hong kong monetary authority has told our desire it will continue to support financial innovations in the industry and currently is unlikely to tighten regulations or follow china's lead which is good news for the unprecedented numbers of fin tech entrepreneurs setting up in hong kong like matthew to come who has just launched a block chain company they are playing the same regulation in congress leaving china yet and we won't be able to train them to use it to karate anymore but look in technology not only about three to currencies and exchanges and so you can still
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use look transit knology for the field experts agree they say within two years block change technology will touch every aspect of our lives the transport banking insurance or just paying bills the city now has to find a way to control some of the risks that come with this new technology without slowing down its evolution and finally environmental groups have warned that the billion dollar all of all industry is in danger from italy to tunis lebanon to greece hotter summers and unpredictable winters have seen yields decline by as much as twenty percent is in fear for. it's a tradition almost as ancient as the civilizations that first settled these hills for thousands of years all of those have been hand picked across southern lebanon much like they are today the fruit is a staple in mediterranean kitchens and all of oil is a crucial ingredient. lebanese farmers typically press oil at their own small batch
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facilities it's a complex process that sees the all the fruit washed pitted ground into a paste and then pressed into a golden oil the family has been in the business for as long as anyone can remember he says he can't imagine doing anything else while but they go in with a going on of all is very nutritious and has so many benefits even god spoke about it in one of the verses in the koran olive oil is medicine it is the greatest of all use. modernization has made pressing all of us into oil less labor intensive and more lucrative but in recent years farmers have been struggling to keep up with demand all of oil production is becoming increasingly risky business crossed the mediterranean the land of birth according to environmental with climate change is leading to increasing reports. from southern europe to north africa to the levant hotter than average summers and cold winters have seen harvest shrink
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according to forecasters at the international of council mediterranean oil production has declined by around twenty percent when compared to averages from the decade between two thousand and two thousand and ten delivering a major setback to the billion dollar industry and as the region supply becomes increasingly unpredictable some boss players have started looking elsewhere for future sources of all of oil including california australia and new zealand something producers in lebanon say could destroy their ancient way of life. and we are very worried about the import of all of us on all of oil from abroad we must be able to export our own harvest i only hope our industry works to keep these markets open for us because our oil is of the best quality growing global demand for all of oil as a food and health product is also putting pressure on the mainly mediterranean base apply ors to produce even more but with all of harvest continuing to decline
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because of the region's changing climate it's hard to see how they'll be able to do that so that is our show for this week you can get in touch with us by tweeting me at has a and b. is that. when you do or drop us an email account in a cost that is in a dot net is our address and has more few online at c.n.n. dot com slash see that take you straight to our page which has individual reports links and entire episodes for you to catch up on that's it for this edition of counting the cost and has a secret from the whole team here thanks for joining us the news on al-jazeera is next. kingfish indulge your five senses are your own from the election that shook
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washington both the republican and democratic parties are struggling to adjust to a polarized electorate it really is an identity crisis you just run against drugs or do you really stake out a set of positions that offer us a clear alternative not just a truck but to the politics that gave truck pulled lines examines the shifting sands of american politics life of the party this time on all jazeera. al-jazeera. where every. when we managed the financial system between one thousand forty five one thousand nine hundred seventy one there was not a single financial crisis anywhere in the world and then in one thousand seven hundred the bank has lobbied and they said no no we don't need controls you know
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the market will discipline us banks love to make loans to sovereigns why because behind the sovereign a millions of taxpayers we can see in reaction to the liberalisation of finance just as we saw it in the one nine hundred twenty s. and it's going to be going to ready is ugly in many parts of the world where people are saying if my government went look after my interests then i will look for a stronger if he's a fascist i don't care if he promises to secure the stability of my life and my people i will vote for him i think that's where we're heading and i don't think i need. ages and a vision to understand that's the threat that we think. if you are in beijing looking out the pacific ocean you'd see american warships when mess was that somehow time is aiming to replace america and around the world but the chinese are not that stupid these guys want to dominate
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a huge chunk of the planet this sounds like a preparation for our first president george washington said if you want peace prepare for war the coming war on china at this time on a just. a daring road trip across west africa on a mission to redefine a continent too often misrepresented. the weapon of choice digital cameras. it was so one of the new african football that he takes on the rainy season on its quest for the perfect even his story of creative government rather invisible war this this time on al-jazeera. what. words.

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