tv Inside Story 2018 Ep 192 Al Jazeera July 11, 2018 8:32pm-9:01pm +03
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what will it take for a smooth briggs's as government ministers resign britain's prime minister is accused of being soft on divorce from the e.u. but how cantor reason may please everyone and convince e.u. leaders to this is inside story. hello welcome to the program i'm adrian finnegan britain's prime minister's reason may is defending her plans for briggs it in the face of protest resignations from her governing conservative party julia ministers as well as two vice chairs of step down following the resignations of ministers briggs that david davis and foreign secretary boris johnson who says the dream of briggs it is dying but may insists that her current position will let the e.u. k. leave the e.u.
in a smooth and orderly way in brussels where she attended the nato summit she said her brings it deal will protect jobs and british commitments to will the island the checkers deal is a plan has been put together it's been agreed government will be publishing our blank paper this week which will set out more detail on it it's there because it delivers on the day that people gave on bret's it it delivers the fact that we will have an end to free movement that we will have an end to the jurisdiction of the european court of justice in the u.k. we won't be spending vast vast contributions to every we ask the common agricultural policy out of the common fisheries policy. that breaks it and we do it in a way that the text jobs and livelihoods and meets our commitment and britain voted in what was billed at the time as an advisory referendum two years ago to become the first country to leave the european union then prime minister david cameron who called the referendum resigned in march last year his successor to reason may
invoke the european law now. as article fifty the formal mechanism to leave the e.u. set the wheels in motion after forty four years as an e.u. member a new rules gave the british government two years to negotiate the divorce after months of disagreement within the government may says she's ready to deliver a brink's agreement that keeps absolute faith with the people's decision to leave so let's bring in our guests for today's discussion both of whom are in london jonathan lists is the deputy director of the business advisory group british influence and john johnston is a political reporter at politics home gentlemen welcome to you both jonathan list let's start with you the now former foreign secretary boris johnson said in his resignation letter that the brig's it dream is dying suffocated by self-doubt is he right. dream is the opposite word because it never existed except in his imagination imagination is but a cool breakfast is it was always going to be
a case that the breaks that he wants he could never be delivered you either have a break say in accordance with what the e.u. says which is boosting the market in full customs union or who you have. a wish to advise the case in the markets between northern ireland and great britain or you have no deal a tool there is never any option for cherry picking boris johnson has been living on for too long not just boris johnson it seems that briggs it is within the conservative party the governing conservative party appear not to understand that the e.u. is a rules based organization of the u.k. just can't cherry pick aspects of membership that it wants to keep and those that it wishes to discard i mean that's what's led to all of this infighting isn't it. absolutely it's the kind of exceptionalism that britain has you know still maintains e.-k. government is still maintained this ludicrous position that he needs us more than we need them that's all we had during the referendum campaign twenty sixteen and it's kind of led the policies of the government ever since it's simply not true it
never has been true never will be true so when the e.u. set off the referendum you can't cherry pick this in the markets you can't if you want to end free movement that means you have to go for both on a trade deal they still mean it now so when the u.k. government goes to check yours and comes out with this deal which leaves the departure of two cabinet ministers the easiest ones to still but you're asking for a single market it gets but not in services people kept so that simply won't wash john johnston. do the brigadier's within the conservative party have any idea of how the you the e.u. works or the the now former minister in charge of exiting the e.u. david davis implied this week that this fudge that we've been seeing within the conservative party this apparent. complete ignorance about the way that the the e.u. works is a negotiating tactic in the that the british government the cabinet this week has done the u.k. great harm by backing a plan that will lead to a to
a less hard briggs it. yes well obviously the the government has now got this plan that they are going to take to the european union that is already in tatters before we even get there so it remains to be seen how the e.u. are going to respond there's certainly parts of the checkers plan that they have looked at that they have already said they would not agree with and now we have to wait and see tomorrow when the fool detail of the white paper comes out how they will accept it there's obviously the problem is that if they reject this plan out right it's going to tourism is position in jeopardy and i think the the view in the european union the moment is that she is the only person who can possibly come up with a deal that both sides can pass to reason may now has a more pragmatic flexible cabinet with the resignation of david davis and boris johnson is her position now save the scene off any potential leadership challenge
and reasserted her authority. well the first thing to say is that series i'm a is a very resilient prime minister she's seen off crisis as the other leaders would have taken them down but no she's certainly not out of the woods when it comes to a leadership challenge we're getting the breaks a tears are drip feeding resignations and in order to try and force her to change their policy position but ultimately if she won't change and by which words are demands they will probably make a move against her in order to do that they need to file forty eight letters of no confidence in her it seems likely that they maybe have those letters ready to go but what that will that mean is a leadership challenge and it remains to be seen whether they can convince fifty percent plus one of their m.p.'s to vote turned down because if they do that it still doesn't change the parliamentary math and it could trigger a general election in which jeremy corbin could feasibly when which is certainly
something the breakthroughs do not want to happen or it's a journalist to what extent is that is the cabinets and the m.p.'s within the governing conservative party fall into line behind the prime minister simply because it is running scared of the opposition labor party. i think that it's a very important point that many of them are sort of clinging to their words they say but the point is that even if treason may were to be deposed then the new prime minister would still be in the same weak position that any prime minister would be in at the moment because the u.k. has almost no cards to play against the european union and so when the e.u. says we're not going to accept this check is deal you'll either have the full thing about and customs union or none of it except northern ireland then no prime minister no matter how strong or charismatic is going to be able to change that position because the e.u. at the moment has no incentive to to give britain what it wants because the e.u. is its credibility and each interest stake and the e.u. has all the power at the moment because it knows that the u.k. cannot settle for no deal partly because it gives
a part of it would never accept that and partly because its equipment and national self-immolation is simply not a viable option for the government and that means that the u.k. will concede to pretty much everything the e.u. ones and has done in the last year already all right so you talked about the checkers deal jonathan that was the agreement fleshed out last friday at the prime minister's country residence when she got her cabinet together to finish flesh out a briggs's ambition that they could all unite behind as john was saying the details of that deal are due to be published in a white paper on thursday as far as you're concerned john of the what's wrong with the checkers deal then why is it an unworkable and what do you make of it as a opening bid as far as negotiations with the e.u. a concern. why i think it's very important to say there is an opening bit and i think that we do need to recognise that the u.k. government has come a long way from the unicorn chasing of two years ago when it said it could basically have all the advantages of the single market without any responsibilities
so now it's at least saying that yes we will be announcing about the gates if the u.k. parliament doesn't accept something then we'll have that will have consequences but the checkers agreement is unworkable for two key reasons the first one is about northern ireland it's absolutely clear to anyone who understands the situation or an island that northern ireland itself must be in a single market for goods and a customs union importantly but treason may is refusing to accept the idea that we will be in a customs union because she still wants the power to arrange country trade deals with the us australia and so on so we have this really peculiar causes partnership maxim facilitation newcastle's partnership and all the things which the e.u. has already rejected by the bottom line is northern ireland has to be in the customs union otherwise our customs barriers and that means that the u.k. the whole u.k. has to be in the customs union otherwise we'll have customs barriers between great britain and northern ireland which effectively splits up the u.k.
so that's one of the reasons why some work will the other reason why it's unworkable is that it's asking for one of the freedoms of the single market which is a freedom of goods but not the other three services capsule and importantly people free movement of people in such a totality issue for the e.u. they will not allow the case to get benefits the single market without having free movement of people so john johnson why if the capital knows that it that it's unworkable that the e.u. is going to reject most of the proposals within the so-called checkers deal what why did the cabinet back it well the cabinet back to it because the they need to try and come up with a position that the tory party would accept and at the time when the checkers deal was finalized it seemed like to me. may had been able to ambush her here cabinet members with the hope that their backing of the deal which quell some of the bricks at rebellion on her back benches but as we've seen with the resignation of david davis and forced johnson that has not happened the breaks tears are now in full
revolt jacob reese morgan other prominent tears have put down amendments to monday's trade bill to try and dampen down elements of the checkers deal the whole thing is now falling apart but originally the reason behind it was so they had something they could bring to the e.u. that was unified whether that you were going to reject it or not they had to have something unified and now they no longer have that what about boris johnson's political career is a lot of media criticism over the former foreign secretary following his resignation say that he's been the worst foreign secretary in british history. is it over for boris johnson no it certainly appears to be i mean boris johnson being elevated to the foreign office many people saw was just the rise and rise of his career but in many ways this stint in the foreign office has killed off his chances again boris has boris as everyone says he could buy him spock but it seems very unlikely that he would get the backing of enough of his own m.p.'s in
a leadership race to make it into the final ballot to members if he did however there is still the possibility that the tory membership would back him and he could end up the prime minister here you say at the moment he wouldn't get the backing i mean he's very popular still with the grassroots supporters of the conservative party what happens if there is a grassroots rebellion if if members of parliament are going back to their constituencies and getting criticism from from party members locally. as i said boris johnson very popular with the local party members still i mean what happens if there is a grassroots rebellion within the conservative party not just in the parliamentary one well certainly that's what some breakfast here and piece are saying that there . even from their activists they're refusing to go out and campaign because they are so upset with this what they perceive as betrayal of the bracks votes but ultimately it comes down to m.p.'s have got to be the ones who trigger the vote of no confidence in the prime minister and for them the great risk in doing that is
that any new leader would be under immense pressure to call a general election and in doing that they risk jeremy corbin winning it's very feasible that he could win with the tory party in such chaos and obviously notorious he wants to be the one responsible for bringing jeremy corbyn into number ten but jonathan lis what about the much touted briggs it dividend the financial windfall that the country would receive as a result of the longer having to pay into the e.u. there are those that argue that there simply wouldn't be one whatever the form of brigs that the u.k. eventually settles for but let's just suppose for a moment that the briggs it is a right that there would have been some kind of a dividend this checkers deal would surely watered down any form of dividend if there was to be one wouldn't it. absolutely i mean certainly the financial dividend is a total fallacy but the one thing the braces really wanted of course was these third country trade deals i mentioned and what the government has just committed itself
to is to align itself an agricultural standards now that kills the u.s. trade deal of birth because the u.s. has been absolutely clear that they will only accept a trade deal with the u.k. only push for one if we adopt our agricultural standards to allow treated beef korean chicken etc that means we can't do that and also australia might well ask who are interested beef as well we simply won't do that the government is now admits that the government has basically said that we're going to get a lot b.s. on the single market so instead of we were removing ourselves from the room and going outside it's trying to influence what happens inside it boris johnson rule that he's wrong about was absolutely right in his resignation letter when he pointed out that the government has for years been arguing with with bits of regulations it disagrees with and now it's accepted it has to accept them all wholesale without any ability to influence them who vote for them and so that means that the brakes that is being presented here by the government is not acceptable to leavers all remain as it's a price it's the worst of all worlds it's a it's dead on arrival jonathan i just want to bring in
a third voice into our discussion also in london leadership is the director of data and polling at restless and global welcome to inside story that we were talking before you arrived about to resume getting a cabinet together to flesh out a briggs's proposal that cabinet could unite around the details due to be published in thursday's white paper what chance is there that the european union will accept those proposals. well i think that that is going to be the basis for the conversation of to start a conversation let's not forget that two years after britain voted to leave the e.u. it's taken the cabinet this long to even put to forward a proposal as to what it once read the future relationship even though we've seen the cabinet implode over this proposal put forward by trees that may i think that realistically you have to accept that there will have to be further concessions from the u.k. when it comes to the e.u. but the e.u. is obviously very well aware of trees have made tenuous position at home therefore
you know trees are made before she even put a proposal for cheese been sending her deputies around the e.u. to make sure that they didn't shoot it down assoon as it was put on the table but the u.k. will have to make for the concessions to the e.u. the e.u. will see it as a starting point to start the conversation need now it's amazing to reason they have the linda head of the nato summit germany's chancellor angela merkel said that it's a good thing that we have proposals on the table now that remark was jumped upon by briggs it is as an encouraging sign a even a modest indorsement to what extent is germany key in allowing to resume a to secure this smooth and orderly briggs's that she's promised look it's very interesting that treason may had supposedly discussed her proposals with angela merkel before she even presented them to the cabinet of course germany will be key as will all the other european countries in order to keep the conversation going i think it's really important to distinguish that germany can't unilaterally make the decisions in the e.u. there is twenty seven member states who the u.k.'s negotiating with and the people
who are going to be doing the negotiating for the e.u. is of course michelle by me and the commission team so i know americal i wouldn't go so far as say that you know she saw this as an endorsement as her comments were an endorsement obviously germany's position is going to stay the same germany has been adamant throughout the backs of negotiations that there can be no cherrypicking so that means that the u.k. can't carve off bits of the single market that it. once while not having to pay for any of its obligations germany has been one of the hardest countries in the negotiations germany and i'm glad merkel supposedly even asked why the u.k. should have a transition period off to wreck that because that is indeed what the u.k. needs in order to keep the continuity for businesses so i wouldn't go so far as saying angela merkel is endorsing the you case position and they already mention the u.k. will have to make for the concessions that i let merkel is very much aware of the difficult domestic politics the trees the man she's keen to keep the negotiations going john johnston for anyone who doesn't follow the money you should have british
politics with the governing conservative party in such disarray where is the political opposition surely with this mess they should be riding high in the opinion polls and would the opposition labor party be any better at delivering brigs it than the governing conservatives will certainly we've seen that labor party have not been able to fully capitalize in the polls in terms of taking over the conservatives. they have a problem also with threats at their bricks that position is quite ambiguous for them i think at the moment as the opposition that works well they're able to allow the conservative party to tear itself apart and they only really have to face up to coming up with a plan for bracks it if the government falls over say they want to do that and if that happens i think the labor party are also going to find themselves in trouble when it comes to coming up with a coherent position on. guns and less is briggs it inevitable can anything no prevent it a second referendum perhaps. in the events the last few days have made situation
much like we have now three months ago the food the final summits not table where this is all meant to be wrapped up and signed off now the moment the governments in disarray to reason may has still not accepted that we're going to be in excess of customs e. and the single market or else the k.'s going to be split so there are over lot more concessions to the u.k. size and when she makes those concessions she may well be defenestrated by either one of her wings so she advocates spacing out the u.k. she might be brought down by the democratic unionist party in northern ireland and a lot of other m.p.'s are sites and if she goes the full single market customs option a cousins in option then she might be brought down by the bricks to is so she may well not be long for this prime ministerial world as the chaos rudd ramps up the freefall will take place and inside that void there could be
a real romance and from both sides to change course and that's the point at which that could be a renewed call for people's votes to ask the british people is really what we want leadership what do you make of what you heard there what damage has this infighting within the governing party over briggs it done to britain standing in the world. obviously isn't a tremendous amount of damage to britain's standing in the world again let's not forget that it's been two years since britain voted to leave the european union the kind of domestic political turmoil you've since seen since then i don't think has even climax i think there's a lot more on the way the reason for that as many european political analysts let such as myself we've been looking at the complicated relationship between the u.k. and the e.u. for the past x. amount of years is that of course this was going to be difficult and a lot of politicians made promises especially on the back side which are impossible to deliver so as to raise the mates government has been slowly mugged by reality
there's been a lot of casualty shall we say in the political scene one of them being boris johnson you know as foreign secretary i mean we just know him as somebody who is prone to gaffes all the time he certainly didn't do very well for britain as its chief diplomat on the world and i think that a lot of people are just looking at britain baffled and wondering what's going on and as i already mentioned i think there's a little bit more of that still to come john john so if you had to put money on it briggs itself briggs it no briggs it's i think at the moment the prospects of a new deal scenario is looming we have a deal that will probably not be accepted by europe and the red lines it's a reason they would have to cross in order to get the deal through will not be accepted in the u.k. parliament so at the moment i think that the new deal scenario is starting to look a lot more likely and what happens then that britain crashes out i can see just a list disagree green with that jonathan. yeah i think you know
deal is has always been impossible. no do we have to have to look at what a no deal actually means it grounds planes between the u.k. and the e.u. it stops radioisotopes potentially from traveling to the good the bad sides of radiotherapy patience is a total catastrophe it means a breakdown of the u.k. economy overnight and in ireland which could resume sort of instability in an even war in that province and so it's a total disaster no government could ever advocate that position and we know government has been running from it because they have made every concession necessary to the e.u. over the last year because they're so such so scared of a no deal story and it needs no did you want to chip in there very brief answer i need for me please. i agree with jonathan that the no deal sonar is the nuclear option and it's nobody wants to have that neither the u.k. noid the e.u. nonetheless very strange things have been happening in global politics in the past
two years and i wouldn't put it beyond this government to see that there could be a no deal option simply because that's a negotiations get completely log jammed because of domestic politics here at home politics on the european stage and global events with you know what donald trump is doing for example at the nato summit this week so i don't think it's impossible i don't think it's my base case scenario but the most astros outcome is still very much an option on the table jonathan this one last question to you the independence that the now online newspaper wondered on wednesday if with one hundred days to go the divisions within the u.k. societies within u.k. society rather over brigs it can ever be healed. it will be a very very long process funny isn't it when when a break tastes a new referendum or people's votes will be that it would be incredibly divisive
breaks it is always going to be divisive whatever happens from now on is going to divide us and if it turns out that we deeper exit and the economy disintegrates people lose their jobs when they're promised prosperity and sovereignty and control and all of those things go down and that is going to be the most divisive event of our generation ok there we're going to have to leave it many thanks indeed to all of you jonathan listening to schick and john johnston all of whom are in london and thank you too for watching don't forget you can see the program at any time just by going to the website al-jazeera dot com for further discussion join us at our facebook page at facebook dot com forward slash a.j. inside story you can also join the conversation on twitter our handle at a.j. inside story for me adrian for the good of the whole team here in doha thanks for watching we'll see you again by phone.
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