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tv   Inside Story 2020 Ep 31  Al Jazeera  January 31, 2020 8:32pm-9:01pm +03

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russian backed separatists volodymyr zeland ski's been meeting secretary of state mike pompei o in kiev his visit coincides with the impeachment trial against back in washington thousands of palestinians in gaza held demonstrations against donald trump's proposed deal between palestinians and israelis protesters say they'll maintain garza's isolation and the blockade against it similar demonstrations being held in jordan turkey and lebanon state of emergency has been declared in australia's capital as bushfires threatened camber and the surrounding region record temperatures and strong winds are fanning the flames is the worst fire threat cambra has seen in 2 decades well those are your headlines the news continues here in algiers syria after inside story.
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it breaks it is finally happening britain and the european union up to more than 3 years of political calles but what does it stand to gain for the quotes in the blog and does it signal the beginning of the breakup of the u.k. itself this is inside still. welcome to the program i'm nick clegg also more than 3 years of political wrangling 2 general elections and angry protests across the united kingdom brics it is finally here $2300.00 g.m.t. on friday the time that goes down in history the out of the u.k.
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became the 1st country to leave the european union ending its 47 year membership of the bloc britain has until the end of the year to reach a deal with the e.u. on the future relationship but as emma haywood reports many fit it will take much longer to reach a comprehensive agreement. breaking away from what many have known for nearly a lifeguard there is an appetite for a different picture very much outside the e.u. here in the seaside town of great yarmouth where just over 70 percent of people voted to leave 3 and a half years ago on the design of the bricks it is still strong i think it's high time it starts to happen i think the uncertainty of the last few years has been it's not been good for anybody really there's nothing about immigration it's about being in control and boy people who've got no interest in this country whatsoever. just think the pain is real is too much you know we should be all independent. and
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everything is going to get going again businesses and everything just get the borders control just everything we want breaks for where another child was we are no one i think short term but long time. in the winter months it can be a like this is a place time forgot like other resources that ebbs and flows the energy sector has helped bring money in but there are pockets of poverty and wages are lower than the national average many people are pinning their hopes on bricks it hoping that somehow it will transform their lives on a local on a national level that it will bring prosperity to this town and that it's not just tear it's in leave voting communities up and down the country the imperial hotel has been in the same family since the 1930 s. it's busy all year but there are concerns about what breaks it might bring i voted against the leave because i feel we were better off in the year i fully recognize now the fact that we are leaving the u.
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but i'm still greatly concerned about what the future will hold what the future will hold for this business what the future will hold for getting supplies in from europe what the future will be for getting my staff to come and work here that we need no one knows exactly what brics it will bring what impact it will have only that the changes won't be felt in the next few months but the decades to come and he would al-jazeera great yarmouth. well little will change immediately the transition period last 11 months but there are big challenges of course ahead a top priority for the british government is to work out a trade deal with the e.u. before the december 31st deadline but analysts warn it could take years to reach agreements the u.k. will create a new immigration system and although the rights of e.u. nationals currently living in the united kingdom will not be affected at the number of new arrivals from the e.u. will drop it will also be hard if you can a citizens to live and work in the european union britain will now share a 483 kilometer land border with the e.u.
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between northern ireland and the irish republic but it's unclear how a northern island can stay in the u.k.'s customs territory while applying rules on its agricultural and manufactured products. all right let's turn away bring in our guests in belfast we have david finn him or he's a professor of european politics at queen's university belfast in london catherine mcbride senior economist at the international trade and competition unit at the institute of economic and fares and joining us from stockholm in sweden also via skype call built former swedish prime minister and now a co-chair of the european council on foreign relations welcome all to the program you know we've been through this all so many times but this time it is real so i'm going to start by asking you 1st of all what your general assessment is of where we're at and 1st up katherine mcbride is the daughter of a bright new era as boris johnson would have it or one of for good and gloom what do you reckon. oh it's definitely the dawn of
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a bright new era that's for sure however if it's going to be a long though on because we don't really get out of the 8 years or spaces until january the 1st and next year so now we go through a transition period where we still follow all of the e.u. rules and we're still paying into the e.u. . 8 represented in that parliament but it does it does give us a chance to start to make our own trade agreements and start to explore how we can expand outside of the you know which will be great call built a moment of national renewal as some would have it what do you think what remains to be seen in the lead we don't know as well or the dark the u.k. remains of virtually everything except the solution they need for the next year at least and that it's nice that it's also sort of catching up with the un or that there are roughly $600.00 agreements of a year house with different parts of the world that they think it's not really.
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except that it happened on friday and take where they would be had the there and that's extremely uncertain and it would take years for that ok well we're going into the nitty gritty of that in just a moment the 1st david from the more we have to remember of course that britain's departure is a moment of profound sadness for a half of the nation can those divisions be healed do you think. i think it's going to be very difficult because as was indicated earlier there's still plenty more to be worked out in terms of the relationship with the european union and i think for a lot of people though they hope this very very be very close relationship with european where they might actually go to retain some of what they've had as part of being of being part of europe being but he could be on the other hand we've got something we want a very very clean break from the european union and how they can reconcile the 2 positions on that is going to be very very difficult and also you've got big divisions within the u.k.
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not just between remain as leaders but also the position of scotland these are the the rest of the u.k. laws position that in this process as well i think the whole process a revealed a whole number of divisions within the day which are going to take some time to to address catherine to provide those divisions are they going to complicate issues or breaks it is would say that freed of the the dead hand of the e.u. the u.k. will thrive but the division is going to get in the way of that. i actually think there will be very few divisions i think a lot of people have been exaggerating the difference that leading the e.u. will make people will still be able to travel to europe and still be able to buy european goods you can buy european goods all around the world in lots of countries that don't have trade agreements with europe certainly in australia you can buy a promise and cheese in new york you can buy a shuttle if it you know you don't actually need a trade agreement to trade with the e.u. and nor do you need to trade agreement to go and visit the europe you will
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obviously need some kind of these if you want to work there but i think in you when you look at the numbers the the u.k. absorbs many more europeans than goes the other way there are more british people living in a straight up and there are british people living in the u. so i think that it's actually been exaggerated and i think most people will realise they're going about it here how little they needed the new but it won't it won't apply if a promise prosperity doesn't come and if you talk about numbers his look has some numbers of british car production is falling to its lowest level in almost a decade with the trade body warning of the dangers of bricks that thursday the bank of england further downgraded its view of the economic prospects to the lowest level since the 2nd world war doesn't sound good does it matter. well actually the c.b.i. has come out with the most independent businesses are feeling very buoyant so and
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the c.p.i. is not a fan of bricks by any stretch so i think if they can turn around and say actually most of our members feel quite. jubilant then that's a good thing but with the. car production that is nothing to do with bricks it a the biggest car producers in the u.k. are actually japanese or churman or indian owned and they. the big markets for cars all around the world are in fact in the asia pacific area with an increasing urbanization many young people aren't even bothering to get driver's licenses. so they're not buying as many cars and aging populations which all of europe has especially in well germany but the u.k. as well. older people tend not to renew their cars so easily and get new cars especially when people are waiting for new technology the fact that the whole of
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europe has said that we will be moving to 0 carbon or low carbon i think a lot of people won't buy a new car now until they can buy the most efficient electric car ok. that they can recharge it short install claim you talked about it's all going to take a long time which is certainly will but we've got one year to make the start of a trade deal you saying that the chances are this will just be in the event it'll just be an agreement to make further agreements down the line. i haven't heard anyone really believes that if the in this or develop the in. one year remember we have been together reading them in somewhat later i was sad but the u.k. as being in the european union for 47 years as an enormous amount of commonalities and called moves an arrangement more than we are aware of and go through all of this that didn't stop that there were there it's going to take quite some time to get probably your ideas of sanity minimalistic free trade leave and that should be
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forceable of that desire but full time for a lot of the things that have to do with domestic see the euro standard solar climate but i think that is an example. that they might some time to slow down and that is why we're heading into a period of some some kind of significant inserted events that they want some time right and david wenham of european union's chief pressing negotiator michel barnier monday he warned that it would only this whole process would only ever me an exercise in damage limitation. well i think that's certainly the european union's view and i think that would be widely shared beyond the european union as well i think what you've got with great is a whole series of significant challenges in some states getting out of the e.u. has been the really easy bit now you've actually got to piece together the relationship build up the range of trade and other agreements so that you can get the level of continued cooperation that you actually want and i think this is as
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was indicated earlier going to take a considerable amount of time i think it's actually naive to assume that this can be done in 11 months would be totally unprecedented particularly when you're on top of the time machine you've got the big differences between the u.k. and the e.u. on some quite fundamental issues if we look at the way in which the e.u. concludes its trade agreements with other countries it's always arguing in favor of a level playing field fit with european countries and think that the whole of the future prospect of the u.k. benefiting from breaks it is predicated on assumption that he can retain a lot of the access to the single market in the u.k. carney has a moment unless the u.k. is going to sign up to regulate realignment a level playing field i can't see the u.k. the e.u. agreeing to maintain a level of access the single market we have a moment right so if this is the hobbit we've already seen how difficult it was to resolve the easy bit this is the hard bit what if no resolution is found what if we just don't look at why happens then major challenges ahead catherine actually i
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don't agree where net importers from e.u. in a large way and i don't think that the u.k. will change that a lot of people's tastes have gravitated to buy new e.u. products. but we've also had 47 years of comparative advantage within the e.u. so that we don't actually compete anywhere near as much as people think and even within the say car produces they will have one factory that produces all of the engines and another one that produces all caps and there will swap there there are projects around so that this kind of division of labor has has benefited the the u.k. to the point where we don't have the the big fight to make a lot of trade deals are about protecting your local industries as well as trading with other countries now because we've gone through 47 years of dividing up who's good at what in the u.
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i think we've actually gone through the hardest part of what we protect. and then we. just have to agree to keep doing kind of what we've been doing to a certain degree. i wouldn't buy into the level playing field i think that's. dangerous for many reasons and i'm not sure that there is a level playing field at the moment in europe anyhow. every country seems to have various carve outs that they. don't want to level up. in the terms of taxation if you look at the taxes in hungary or the taxes in ireland or the taxes in a stoning or they are very very different from the taxes in france. the same with financial services there are. german local banks that have now where they wouldn't live in this building societies so you know there is it's not as level as people like to make out and so i wouldn't buy into that and i think we can do. i trade
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dale it might be ideal because people are saying i will use the candidate dale we can take that off the shelf if you like and just change the numbers and the words are here and i have been told by both i can see we were going to 1000 last night and we need to move it around a bit and failed and i got a job interview on that path now i think that all of us if not everything is all that i see inside the european union merely harmonized what is necessary but what is necessary is necessary to take that in the result of that but speaking from certain experience i would say the answer your 100 meetings of the council of ministers in the european union i found the value of really these i have the year on were the exact thing over the coming week it reminds the instance in coordinate activities and that is of value in because we're going to move you carry is a smaller country in the world that is very very fast and delivers that particular
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possibility to be together with european former eastern dress the different judges they're going to have every month i don't see in the countries that are outside of the e.u. and have their poor diplomats you know very well in the door and trying to listen to what is discussed between the european union minutes as every month i think is going to be difficult you carries on who's going to lose solved in terms of influence and weight in political or from everything discussed how many percentage of g.d.p. apart from the economic loss the owner of one of the small that i just want to source helen is going to jump in is right we do need to move on the most of the issues to cover yet having just come back briefly 30 seconds if you would on that well i mean the u.k. is a much bigger country that's waiting and also a much bigger country been norway but it's managed to be separate in a country the u.k. is 10 times bigger than new zealand or around saying
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a poet. smaller population than japan but the landmass is probably similar you know i don't buy into this you don't have influence if you are separate from the u. i mean switzerland has a small population and it's a smaller country and it's a much bigger noise in the world david what's your take on this if you have a huge flag flew at brussels and it's consigned to the e.u. museum would you say that it goes there along with you kay's position geopolitically that the u.k. is diminished as a geo political force because of this oh i think it's a vast majority of member states including the large member states of the european union believe that membership of the european union provides them a greater voice on the international stage now the broad agreement on that i think it follows therefore that the u.k. leaving the e.u. will see its voice diminished initially at least and it's going to be a major challenge for it to ensure that its voice continues to be heard on the
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world stage is that those of us who are a little peaceful medium sized country it's no longer one of the big plays that it used to be alone and i think it is going to find it very difficult to get that voice protected i think what we also think about the european union union and the e.u. will be quite important in determining what regulations govern trade across europe and u.k. is going to be ours for the decision making processes on that if we think about the role that you can use going to be playing in addressing climate change that's going to be important if it wants to set itself as a world leader that i can see the u.k. taking on the world leading role there would be far more influential if it was within a group such as the european union promoting a shared view which could be representative of a much larger empathise a population than than the u.k. probably had david just change the tax slightly you're in belfast the northern island where there's been this whole issue of the customs union massive issue they tell us what the mood is like there right now. what i would say is any mood of
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jubilation at all of them is a mood of quite considerable concern yes we've now got the protocol on our the northern island such that we will not have a hard border on the island of ireland come the end of 2020 but there are serious concerns being expressed by business and politicians about the implications of that increase in checks and controls and formalities on the movement of goods both from northern ireland into great britain but also importantly from great britain to normal and they are anticipating edition of course happen to be borne by businesses which for consumers in orbit is likely see an increase in the price of goods there's also concerns around the disruption to supply chains that having customs controls and regulation controls in the border but a likely to me and how this is actually going to play out is going to be highly contingent on the extent to which the u.k. in its relationship with the e.u. moves as close as possible to the e.u. in terms of customs arrangements and also in terms of regulate tree alignment and
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if you don't have those then we are faced with quite serious disruption to the movement of goods across the irish sea and that then feeds into politics as well where i think unison particular lawyers community within islam is very concerned about what this all means for nor laws position within the united kingdom and this internal market so breaks it is proved to be highly disruptive and highly concerning for a lot of people in northern ireland and just because the u.k. is leaving. that night i does not mean to say that any of those concerns are going to go away that's simply exacerbated just as we come to the final couple minutes of program want to move on to the integrity of the united kingdom itself the headline in the scotsman newspaper saying it's farewell not good bye that is to say that scotland will rejoin at some point catherine if you could be brief on this is going to herald the breakup of the union as it. well i doubt it because 60 percent of scottish trade is with the u.k. of with the rest of the u.k.
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. not with the e.u. . scotland would have to start by getting its own currency running its own finances a lot better than it presently does if it wanted to make a living or another referendum going well she is she lost the last one and maybe if she keeps asking the same question she might eventually win it but. i don't think i think i think the scots very canny i think is the word and i don't think they will fall for that one you know if the oil price when the last referendum was held the oil price was about $150.00 us dollars a barrel now it's less than half of that and scotland is not the economic powerhouse it would be. with the low oil price. so i don't think that they can make it as an independent country and there are already 5 independent countries waiting to get
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into the you so i'm not sure that the e.u. would even. let them jump the queue or if. they would have so you need all of the use what's your assessment of this go build how do you sense that the unity of the united kingdom. that's up to the united in the side of the it for us so outside of the united kingdom and if you saw i buy i would hope i am safe 1st and by hope the united nations they get there because i think integration inside them you like it in them is good as much as i think that we very soon inside of you the news is good . news borders and your barriers in your it's not something i'm in favor of them if they don't see you inside the united kingdom inside or any of the e.u. actually. right and david honeyboy from norman his perspective people have been bringing them into that conversation on the the concept of the united kingdom as well. yes well i think i've already indicated there are concerns about what the
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implications of the protocols mean for the position in the entire market i think that the way in which the whole withdrawal agreement process was handled by london has reflected a limited desire to really effectively engage with the devolved ministrations without being more in or thought of it in wales or in scotland and i think a key challenge for the united kingdom government going it in the coming is is to ensure that the devolved administrations all consulted on what sort of future the u.k. is going to have with the e.u. this cannot simply be a process which is driven by essentially an english conservative party governing in in london the voices from more modern for scotland and from wales need to be heard if the u.k. is going to reduce some of the tensions which of been revealed in the british process so far over the last of the last number of years well we're finally there we shall see how it all unfolds that's it for this program thanks to all our guests david moore catherine mcbride and call bill thanks very much indeed and thank you
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for watching and you can see the program again any time by visiting our website al-jazeera dot com and for further discussion just go to our facebook page that's facebook dot com forward slash a.j. inside story you can also join the conversation on twitter our handle for that is that a j inside story so for me nick clarke and the whole team here it's goodbye from. i.
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gives you a deal dead and did you get the peace prize too soon. is this going to hurt or help donald trump's reelection chances and in theory for one thing you could shoot somebody on 5th avenue and not have any consequence this is not a muslim issue this is a human calling the issues join me man in the hot sun as i put up from questions to my special guests and challenge them to some straight talking political debate here on al-jazeera. the president's on donald trump jr was promised damaging information about hillary clinton not like a shilling to see an investigation stick the troops did the trump campaign with russia did you at any time of the urge the former f.b.i. director james comey in any way shape or form to close or to back down the investigation into michael flynn and also as you well know you know. next question bottle field washington on al jazeera. this is a 4th trip to boozy in 2 days the fisherman's using his boat to risk you as many
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people as he can was stranded in the flood hit area off to psycho to die struck mozambique i was up when i 1st saw women with babies on their backs crying for help saying they were dying i knew i had to do something i was late and from the dop a faint whistle in the distance alerts us to people calling for help women children and the elderly are brought on board 1st hungry and thirsty it hasn't taken much time to pull the boat about 200 people have been rescued and more want to get on but this simply no space. to. play.
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the use. of the on. al-jazeera. hello i'm sorry is a that this is the news hour live from go coming up in the next 60 minutes decision time if u.s. senators reach a pivotal moment president thompson trial where the law even the u.s. capitol. evacuees make it out of china travel restrictions in lobel health emergencies. hello i'm maryanne demasi in london with the top story from
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europe to the u.k. gets ready to big farewell to the european union tonight the country will formally end nearly half a century as a member.

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