tv Inside Story 2020 Ep 148 Al Jazeera May 27, 2020 8:32pm-9:01pm +03
exploded in syria's italy province when that convoy passed by it happened on the main supply route the opposition forces in the syrian government have been fighting . european commission has unveiled an ambitious proposal for a coronavirus economic recovery plan it was to borrow $825000000000.00 for its stimulus fund it's likely to face opposition by some member states. u.k. prime minister johnson has told m.p.'s that it's time to move on from the scandal surrounding his top adviser dominic cummings traveled with his family from london to northeast england in march while he and his wife were showing commitment 1900 times prime minister says he does not think an inquiry into the matter is necessary and that the government needs to focus on dealing with the pandemic. all right you have to stay with the headlines are not 0 this news hour coming up in half an hour right after inside story laughing now.
the u.s. accuses russia of sending fighter jets to libya moscow says it wants a cease fire at its ally he suffered losses after turkish military interventions one of the options to stabilizing libya in an increasingly complex war this is inside story. hello welcome to the program. russia is one of the main players in the war in libya
it supports a warlord. who wants to take the capital tripoli from the un recognized government but the campaign has suffered a series of setbacks officials in tripoli said russian transport planes moved out hundreds of mercenaries who've been fighting with have tossed forces in southern tripoli russia is now calling for an immediate cease fire foreign minister sergei lavrov told an ally. but he backs what he calls a constructive dialogue involving old libyan political forces to end the conflict but at the same time russia is accused of sending warplanes to libya the u.s. military says these photos show russian fighter jets arriving recently via syria to support afghans forces it says the planes were repainted to conceal the origin a russian m.p. rejected the allegation as fake names. russia isn't the only country involved in the war the un recognized government of national accord based in the capital
tripoli has the backing of italy catarrh and turkey recent turkish military intervention has helped its forces push have to our back from southern tripoli and other parts of the northwest the warlord launch an offensive to take the capital more than a year ago hafta is backed by rival administration into broke in the east the u.n. says one $1200.00 russian mercenaries would have ploy to help after hours forces egypt the united arab emirates and france also provide support. let's bring in our guests in touch and in the u.s. state of new jersey we have jason packer founder of the consultancy libya analysis as well see and in vienna wolfgang post-i a security and policy analyst and austria's former defense attash 8 to libya and in tripoli by phone sami a trash
a lawyer and head of the political office of the libyan national assembly february 17th revolution welcome to you all jason 1st of all russian foreign minister sergei lavrov says he wants a cease fire while we hear that the russians have sent 14 disguised fighter jets to libya what's going on. well that's not as paradoxical as it may seem one always wants to negotiate from a position of strength rather than one of weakness the russians are on the back foot as are their clients the ellen de and therefore the russians and the emirates for the 1st time in a long time are talking about steve's fires because when you're losing and the momentum is against you it's a very convenient time to be calling for a cease fire of course they knew that those fighter jets would be discovered they might not have known that afrikan would call them out as vociferously as they have but the russians still have a lot of leverage in the conflict and they have been put on the back foot in the
aerial war but they're not lost and it seems that they have a deal with their turkish opponents that by withdrawing mercenaries from many will lead to drive for up those mercenaries will now not be attacked from and therefore if they were drawn their air assets from places in the west which they did such as what t.-a to draw from it seems like there won't be attack there and now we await the next phase in the battle for tomorrow not as well as negotiations on a global scale about what comes next for libya ok wolf is that what it is the russians putting a gun on the table but really everybody wants a ceasefire. well actually if i were russians it's if 2 of the 3 g. interests in libya this means they intend by all means maintain to full told at least in eastern libya to dissent for the time being they want to prevent the
island they from getting defeated in tripoli tamia we see how far they got they will get may be able to pull off if they recently arrived at the chance also be offensive of the libyan national army again to with the pretty pena but i doubt that the couple of fight the chits is enough to change that i think and to allow the end of an 8 with back again but with 3 pretty it seems to be more like it that this fight the chits if the number remains limited have to propose to buy just some time for the libyan national army who gets closer to some kind of negotiated settlement it could also well be that the purpose of this fight the chance is to peta the turks and the operational cannell from attacking towards eastern libya we see i guess the next days and weeks and show ok sami turkey the u.a.e. have call for a ceasefire all geria the e.u. is calling for a ceasefire are we going to get a cease fire. i would like to start with the mention.
'd behind the syrian. and russia. busy busy busy to get the. muck being the game and then you pranced about it over more 'd than a chameleon. done that for. since both for the 2019 remains also active but without. 'd observing good always. of course. i mean most of them to be and for the city to be empty or that of the russian movement and. they have been deceived by it on. both fronts that i shall in spite of this both of them to mention that i do human giant on to some books which i was a 9 to them to see then for the game to convince me and now the intervention team
did if you're obviously to everyone to mention eugenie and so far left i mean in the event of a theory of evolution that you reject in both goals in the newsgroups by our own actions. the best is finished or dismiss it because we through 'd this go discuss stuff to declare themselves and goodness how 'd 'd old would be. very big to have a democracy and to serve in the state therefore we are not going to redo any codes for a ceasefire or the. visual ok jason not much optimism not much likelihood of a ceasefire coming from tripoli but all the major players seem to be asking for was one going to be full stall them somehow well sandy is right we've entered a new stage if you look at the libya conflict from 2011 to now as having 5 stages we've just entered the tests. the 1st stage is the 20 alleged libyan uprising and
those were an uprising is not a civil war because the mass of the population oppose khadafi and only about 20 percent of his core tribal supporters like the magog the far and some of the warfalla and his family supported him then we had some good years in 20122013 the oil price was high and it was inability to rebuild and then we had the 1st libyan civil war and that was starting in the summer of 2014 it was fought over the tripoli airport and the former revolutionaries fell out amongst themselves so is a town in misrata which fought together against gadhafi fell out and the intro our election was contested with the parliament fleeing to the east that were quieted down but it led to the treaty that sammy was mentioning the surat agreement of 17 december 25th tina and rather than resolving matters that complicated matters
because it introduced a 3rd government the g.s.a. and that government was not really produced inside libya and the international actors who said that they supported it actually supported different sides and began a proxy dynamic this then led to the 4th face which is the 2nd war a post office succession or the war for tripoli that began on april 4th 2019 and former. enemies and allies switch sides so this in turn is in misrata and who fought together against gadhafi some of them worked together to oppose huffed arson attack on tripoli in this new civil war that 2nd civil war has now ended with the fall of what he airbase and we're entering a 5th phase will that phase be a ceasefire a negotiated settlement i don't think so i agree with sami that this ceasefire talk is posturing force is still going to have to play out out there is an opportunity
for the turks will want they are the victors of the 2nd libyan civil war if the troops wanted to be moderate and not push their advantage they could be conveners but everything about their previous behavior earlier ones skills show that there are unlikely to do that and they're going to try to exact a victory dividend and in so doing the conflict will continue into this new and 5th uncertain phase ok wolf. do you think we are relying on turkey to push for the idea of a cease fire will turkey go for that although they want to exact more before they go for that. well i would say it's quite likely that turkey will push for a cease fire right now we need to keep in mind what other turkey's strategic interests in libya and one of the key interests is certainly to maintain and to continue obviously that libyan maritime agreement if there would be a ceasefire right now if there would be
a cease fire off the delany is defeated can be pretty tainio it could easily happen to the eastern part of libya who would split off if the eastern part of leave it would split off deck you could forget the politics maritime agreement because they're a complement have it be in benghazi they would certainly not and also sign any kind of agreements to the favor of turkey so for turkey it is crucial ate up to maintain one libyan state dominate by government favor of turkey ought to continue to with steve just to continue towards the east not only to the sea at the basine but also to big ozzy and this could easily bring them in conflict with a chipped. something is the price that is exacting from the tripoli government was it worth giving access to these mediterranean possible gas deposits in return for the support he's giving it. to great extent because as we know
or do you. remain on board. most of that in the west reduce. konami cutting the money time and distance from chad and if that means the connection to all of the benefits of that to the truth was signed. but nevertheless i think it was just really have committed to the section to get him a government a good measure internationally even to the rest i think as close as it have to general visiting with us i mean to bury the whole country from the military junk to their mission and this we finish this concept of our border and i don't think we can really. give any democratic state but there's something beneath me i have to burn down to the audience and to get. to
my server you have to remind ourselves that we should not be built when on the beat in spite of the. mentor so-called bottom of the government's got a. 'd mysterious gen x. that's really amazing that misstatement on the fight. made this call born into the english industry a challenge cutting the growth so out of the chair and i'm talking on behalf of. somebody of going to be lucian wants to reduce separate that we have determined under the new. really understood the fact that without eliminated and clearly of this military regime we would never do this to britain. on 2011 revolution of $77.00 ok so this is really the main boim we have to
consider in spite of the political stance of the governments jason if turkey strategic goals are to exploit potential gas reserves in the mediterranean basin and to get contracts to rebuild libya for turkish construction companies it needs stability to achieve those goals doesn't it's not going to get much further without stability. that would be a rational way of looking at it and i would hope that that would prevail in omkara but as we know the road to peace in libya does go through on camera and has shown itself since ata turk to be very good at the military right out of turk was a military man and the military dominated the turkish state for its 1st 80 years after the ottoman empire early one has risen to power and he has a problem with the military which is ataturk yes but he has carved out a patch for them and it's a nato country and they have access to the best technology and they've shown to
good effect that they're able to use that technology and skills and to win in libya what bird on has not shown that he has the ability to do is to negotiate he has not been a very good negotiator he's a rogue internationally he's ostracized from europe he hasn't honored some of the migrant deals and frankly i would love to see that he could pivot and extract a peace dividend but it seems like they're going for a victory dividend do they need stability as you mentioned maybe not they want the g.n.a.t. to give them back their construction contracts and back payments but us what's going smartly pointed out they want to have a victory over all of that be a because it's only in the eastern waters that they can extract that gas dividend the only power that can really bring together all of the sides and factions is america. unfortunately america has a bipolar policy towards libya and we're not going to see a new policy until the election in november and that's something i'd like to talk
more about but you know we just have to hold our breath because there's no will in either europe or america right now to really do the serious heavy lifting and humans work you know to convene the international community so until that point the turks and the russians are what we have in terms of actually trying to make it work and wolfgang what is russia's strategic interest in libya we know europeans are particularly concerned about russian interests in libya why it's but as i understand that well not only part russians interests it's also other affair you forgot the russia russia has in particular geostrategic interests they forgot to libya very it would like to say that probably eastern libya will be sufficient to achieve this day egypt will establish a military base to eager to establish a naval base but they have craft kariya in eastern libya there is the help of pop rock which could very very well fit into these intentions they are eager to use
libya a power projection and the influence the with the sahara states yet either to get their share as turkey on the reconstruction of libya be eager to get put into the door before it got too many other major projects in the and actually at the end of the cut off a time like turkey there are many conflicts with russian companies and russian would be to continue if these contracts however it would be easier for russia to leave only be for the eastern part of libya then for turkey to exist only if the western part of libya. when we handle about these competing interests from outside forces in libya when are we ever going to arrive at the stage where people like you in the west are going to get together with people libyans in the east and work out a future of your country together it doesn't seem a lot thoughts on the horizon does it. finally i mean really.
'd between the libyan forces way that is actually. used the civil war the. 'd problem description according to my understanding from that end if you get in libya every time i read we are ready to sit with the reasonable people who believe in their separate state and democrat the constitution. but we can help to reduce this to be a sort of accept any agreement which even to the contrary the values that are set forth in there because i gave them signed 'd on. 'd december 6th and. this is have 52 words which states which community have agreed with. them and we are ready to go off on that but the 3 i'm. going to mention and the other good. job that and used it is that i'm
up to the square leg and this is going to be made above the commission i couldn't make it up the gold money anymore because they did for the one really hoping that he would be writing for the power and really know why an. institution stuck to very m.b.m. in 2000 maybe 3 men for. communicating should of course it does. the constitution i'm. 'd going to organize 'd in should which have being elected. every stage of the revolution so now that the mission according as it has. been good the very night the nation on board or. 'd not or to the nation all the democratic rules which all agreed to include the commission i committed i wonder about this look at the russian community watch and. watch and.
it is also used to going to deduce or and kind of a vision you know have been. felt by anyone so far no and that's the tension as i said of the libyan people that i've been briefed and that is no no because that could have come from them beyond any doubt but then the mystery to. 'd me and through the bush years in fact with which we understood that it clearly and also the community have understood that. jason. africa the u.s. african and while it was unusual for it to state so clearly that he suspected these jets were coming from russia can we take some hint from the u.s. that they are paying attention to what's happening in libya or 'd is it as you
suspect the not really going to get involved in an election year well to 1st address sami's point there yes it would be lovely to have a libyan libyan peace process and the only solution is a libyan libyan wanted can't be imposed from outside but unfortunately somebody showed the 0 sum thinking that prevails in libya he calls his opponents a military junta without. pointing out that the easterners have legitimate grievances about the distribution of wealth and power from the coffee period institutions so that's a shame and it's going to require much more dialogue and openness than he points out now to pivot to the very good question that you mentioned that african statement calling out the russian jets has to do with the bipolarity of american policy and that's that on the one hand we have civil servants and experts and professionals and on the other we have team trump and appointees and this is
something that all americans are familiar with these are the the coronavirus response the experts and the health officials say hey we can't open up and please wear a mask and we've got to flatten the curve and then tim trump and the vice president says we're going to reopen by memorial day that it will be behind us the president appears in public without a mask and says everything is fine we need to reopen the economy so in the libya case this bipolarity is that. trump called her to juan and asked for a ceasefire and pompei a last week called so rajan said oh we don't want any foreign interference you know don't push the advantage don't have the turks comment so team trump and the appointees do the bidding of the u.a.e. and we've seen that before when trump called hotwired april of last year where as the experts and the professionals of the civil servants they are motivated by the traditional american foreign policy aims of deterring russia or wolfgang no coherent american response and the u.a.e.
you also gives the view from europe we have france on different sides of the italians come the the e.u. is also seeming powerless to try and bring calm to libya well currently the european union can do next to nothing about the situation in libya the reason is easy currently that's a military conflict turkey is using the military's tool of strategy to use the military to distract the cheap to counterbalance the libyan national army now turkey spits using a success in libya if the military tool of strategy watching the european union to shelve the bomb. bomb the libyan national army a european still not in the future in a boy as such that's simply not the way the european union bucks the european union member could get again to big game if there is an opportunity if there is separate i stated made that they could again try to broker a cease fire you mentioned that the print european interests this is understandable
if you look just to italy and to france italy has the key has key economic interests before you got to libya they tell you an economic interests mostly focus them best than libya ok italy has key security interests also focus to western libya in particular to make ration for france it's different for them what counts is counterterrorism count that there isn't which is terrorism which is a particular threat that the french might. interests in the central sahara region and therefore the french are also key leaning towards the libyan national army if you want to fight terrorism safe havens in southern libya the only one choice you have to cooperate leave is the libyan national army you may like it or not all right we are unfortunately out of time but thanks to jason pack to wolfgang puts ty in tripoli to sami our trash and thank you too for watching you can see the
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