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tv   BBC Business Live  BBC News  November 16, 2017 8:30am-9:01am GMT

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this is business live from bbc news with jamie robertson and sally bundock. zimbabweans are waiting to see what steps the military will take next after seizing control of the country. live from london, that is the top story, thursday, 16th november. —— zimbabweans are waiting to see what happens next after the military seize control of the country. the soaring cost of living in zimbabwe, could the dark days of hyperinflation be returning? and warnings about serious risks facing china's economy. senior government officials say the country's financial sector needs needs to reform quickly if it is to avoid a crisis. market starting on a positive note but we have seen some fairly sharp falls. market seem a bit tired of going upwards for ever. we will have a bit more of that in a moment. also in the programme,
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there may be uncertainty in zimbabwe, but across the border in south africa, there's a thriving community of young entrepreneurs. we'll talk to the woman behind the incubator looking to harness all that potential. we want your views on the da vinci frenzy, was it worth it? what you make of the record—breaking da vinci auction. we start in zimbabwe. president mugabe remains under house arrest after what the african union says "seems like a coup",
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something denied by the country's military. the economy is a huge source of unrest in zimbabwe. its currency was scrapped in 2009 after hyperinflation reached several billion percent! it was replaced with foreign currencies, today it's mostly the us dollar. but that hasn't helped ordinary people. zimbabwe's official inflation rate was 2.24% in october. but some analysts who track the cost of consumer goods in zimbabwe think they're rising at over 65% a year. that's because of a shortage of dollars needed to pay for imported goods. in fact, economist steve hanke from john hopkins university thinks the situation is far worse. he recently wrote in forbes magazine that the actual inflation rate is almost 243%. he's warning that hyperinflation is returning to the country. theo acheampong is a senior analyst at ihs markit. a lot of commentary on what is
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unfolding in zimbabwe, what is your prediction on what might happen in the next 2a, 48 hours, prediction on what might happen in the next 24, 48 hours, it is hard to tell. it is hard to tell but we have also seen some really good indicators of how this might play out. we are likely to see the ousted vice president, coming back to lead some form of transitional government in the country, but this is more so because he has the active backing of notjust the military, but because he has the active backing of not just the military, but the because he has the active backing of notjust the military, but the likes of the important political backers. in terms of the indicators going forward , in terms of the indicators going forward, what we have observed over the last 72 hours, our prediction and assessment is that yes, there is and assessment is that yes, there is a high possibility that the ousted vice president emmerson mnangagwa comes in and would lead a transitional government, while
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robert mugabe and his wife are removed from the country. let's talk about what that means, it is a political crisis, a political split within zanu-pf, political crisis, a political split within zanu—pf, those who support grace mugabe and those who support the vice president, as it were, but behind—the—scenes, economic crisis that has been gripping zimbabwe full—year score, that was being outlined with some statistics, but one i find astonishing, 95% of the working population is out of work. this issue with a cash crisis... they are allowed to withdraw a few dollars a day, and they try to do that each day. there is a big political/ economic appearance to all of this but going forward, the indication to look out for is the
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likes of the finance minister, who was ousted in the cabinet, in a reshuffle, on october nine, ignatius chombo, he was trying to push for economic reforms. with the vice president likely coming back to lead the transition, we will see him and a couple of the allies who are much more pro—business and pro—reform and pro—economics, coming in, and they would see reforms and measures put in place that would then be to the economy picking up. is there a mood for re—form, a mood for liberalisation, forforeign companies to come in? yes, to an extent, not really big or massive, but we have seen indications to that effect. basically, with the vice president and the finance minister, we saw them driving and engaging with the imf, with the donor
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community and with the chinese, trying to get investment into the country, the chinese had actually promised at some point to bring in 4 billion us dollars over three years, into the country, but that comes with reforms and comes with some conditionality attached to it, particularly from the imf. there is the mood for reform, but the question remains, how far would that go? we will be watching with great interest, theo acheampong, with his analysis. obviously, today, tomorrow, we will be across it, telling you any development as we hear them. let's take a look at some of the other stories making the news. barbie maker mattel has rebuffed the latest takeover approach from rival hasbro, according to sources quoted by reuters, casting doubt over the potential
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merger between the world's two largest toy companies. mattel believes the offer undervalues it and doesn't address potential antitrust concerns, the sources claim. european regulators have warned banks working on post—brexit plans that they will "need to have substance locally" to serve european clients. the european central bank says some proposals are inadequate and risk creating "empty shells". many banks currently access the european market through uk offices but are working on contingency plans, adding space in cities such as frankfurt and dublin. the president of angola, joao lourenco, has fired the daughter of his predecessor as head of the country's state oil company sonangol. isabel dos santos, the billionaire daughter of former presidentjose eduardo dos santos, is africa's richest woman with a net worth of over $3 billion. president lourenco, known asjlo, says he will tackle corruption. interesting story that broke earlier in china today. a senior chinese government official has warned that china's financial sectorfaces bubble risks due to the build—up of
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debt in the economy. leisha santorelli is in singapore with more on this. quite extraordinary for an official to come out and say this? comments we re to come out and say this? comments were candid, the warning comes from a widely respected financial policy expert who was recently promoted to the top ranks of government after having served as the mayor of one of the biggest cities in china, the issue has to do with chinese economic growth, which has come in ata economic growth, which has come in at a huge economic growth. huang qifan said today that the ratio of the financial sector to the overall economy is the highest ratio in the world, which is not a good thing. international investors have been warning about this for years, policymakers are aware of the problem because recently they have been cracking down on speculative investments in areas like shadow
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banking, we must see those areas work notjust in banking, we must see those areas work not just in financial sector but in the problematic property sector. thank you very much. little bit of a slide going on here, we will talk about that in more detail. european markets... all started up, and they are still up, not a huge amount, but a bit. and samira hussein has the details about what's ahead on wall street today. the big business story will be walmart's earnings report, the company has been able to get more people into its physical stores, like to give sales numbers a boost. walmart is the largest retailer in the world, continuing to cut prices, making more investments into its online business. of course, investors are going to want to hear about the upcoming quality. also reporting earnings, best buy, so the
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holiday season is very key for the country, —— company, historically it makes up almost half of its profit for the entire year. —— best buy. what could impact however this quarter is the waves of hurricane matthew burrell that have hit the us. and feynman —— finally, gap will report earnings. —— the waves of hurricanes. joining us is richard hunter, head of research, wilson king investment management. bit of a shift, this rally that went on and on, it is a blip? they are taking the airout on and on, it is a blip? they are taking the air out of the tyres, all their indexes have hit record highs in the states and also we have just
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put the match finished third quarter reporting season, for the most part, extraordinarily strong. justifying those valuations, the problem is, this is kind of after the party now, with the lack of any immediate catalysts it is time to take profits. one of those catalysts might be movement on us tax reform, nothing has happened with that yet, thatis nothing has happened with that yet, that is kind of getting on peoples... can i say nervous? and if anything does happen that could be a good story to kick us off in 2018, obviously, most unlikely. is the us market trading on hopes of tax reform or what you were just saying, are they trading on solid earnings? solid earnings, i believe, it is very difficult to price in any tax reforms at the moment, not least of which because nobody is entirely sure what us companies will do with the money, whether they will reinvest in staff and technology or
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immediately to manoeuvre their own balance sheet, in terms of increased dividends etc, which would be less ofa dividends etc, which would be less of a boost to the economy, but at this moment, even if you listen to us commentators, the debate is, is it tax reform, is it a tax cut? briefly, your thoughts on oil, up and down like a yo—yo. briefly, your thoughts on oil, up and down like a yo-yo. it is indeed but if we look over the last few months, seems to have settled in a range of 55 to 60, certainly the oil companies are comfortable with that, because they have had time to adjust to local levels. thank you very much, later, richard will be giving us much, later, richard will be giving us his views on many things not least, the leonardo da vinci painting going for $400 million.|j would not have spent that much. that wasn't me that spent that money, i wa nt to wasn't me that spent that money, i want to reveal that on air. yes, i dropped out very early... (i) coming up: young, gifted and south
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african, we will meet the woman looking to promote the country's next superstar entrepreneurs. the royal mail has posted its latest results and it's sales are up. our business correspondent theo leggett joins us from the business newsroom with the details. these results problem be about as good as royal mail could have hoped for, revenues up 2%, operating profit down 33% but if you strip out what the company calls transformation cost, cost associated with modernisation of the business, they were up 7%. the letters business used to be the core of the business, that is in decline but the international parcels business, gls, doing rather well, revenues up 9%. pretty good result for the company all told, you can see that in the share price, rallying very sharply. failing off a little bit, some of
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that may be due to people betting on the share price, settling positions, but generally, enthusiastic reception. well mail is under pressure at the moment, these results are about as good as we could have hoped for. you have voice got to worry about industrial action with royal mail, that is always in the wind, in the background. certainly is at the moment, communication workers union have voted for a strike at royal mail in the run—up to christmas, royal mail we nt the run—up to christmas, royal mail went to the courts to prevent that happening and forced the union to go into mediation but it admits that industrial unrest could hit profits over the rest of the financial year. what about pension costs, things like that. royal mail is trying to adapt, close down expensive pension syste m adapt, close down expensive pension system and introduce a cheaper system, that is what the communication workers union does not like. another pressure on the company, the parcels market is extremely competitive, doing well at the moment but the run—up to christmas will be very important indeed. thank you very
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i like ted baker. i shouldn't actually endorse that. we will retract that comment. revenues up by seven points 2% in three months. bucking the trend with many clothing retailers, marks and spencer... i like them too. you like them too! spreading it about. digging myself deeper. let's move on. bank of england governor mark carney in the headlines... i like him to start your gushing today. i know. the bank of england in the news, read all about it on the website. you're watching business live — our top story: zimbabweans are waiting to see what steps the military will take next after seizing control of the country. we are keeping a really close eye
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and bbc news and will update chill on any developed ones. a quick look at how markets are faring.... trading for 45 minutes. games across—the—board following a mixed day in asia and is a day of declines before on wall street. they say when jobs are scarce, it brings out the entrepreneurial spirit in people. that's the thinking behind one initiative in south africa — a collaboration between a famous whisky brand, and entrepeneurs injohannesburg. for young south africans, prospects are bleak — nearly half of those aged between 15 and 34 were out of work last year. the economy is under duress, despite emerging from recession and growing by 2 and half percent in the 3 months to september. so two years ago, j&b hive was set up by the 268—yearj&b whisky brand, owned by diageo, and independents united to help south africa's budding entrepreneurs get free access to a workspace, computers, wifi and training. today, it has around 100 members.
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and a big part of its work is helping female entrepreneurs to get started. clare beaumont—adam is senior strategist at independents united. your extremely involved in terms withj your extremely involved in terms with j and your extremely involved in terms with] and b hive, tell us more about how this operates in johannesburg and who is making the most of the opportunity? as you said we we re most of the opportunity? as you said we were set up predominantly for 18-35 we were set up predominantly for 18—35 —year—olds, based in johannesburg. we have a co—working space which is free for members to use, camera and video equipment and importantly we run skills and training workshops, mentoring and offers some investment. this concept offers some investment. this concept ofan offers some investment. this concept of an incubator, big company providing incubators for small, new companies is quite well—established within tec knowledge of but this is
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quite new, food and tricks. importantly quite new, food and tricks. importa ntly what we quite new, food and tricks. importantly what we are based on as creative entrepreneurs, social entrepreneurs, for the designers to content makers. slightly different who we are attracting but relevant to the market. what doesjmp get out of it? it was about recognition as a brand, they needed to look at connecting with consumers in a different way. traditionally brands will tell a consumer of what they need to think and feel what we did is we said actually, what you need to do is provide what consumers, to do is provide what consumers need. jmp, the entrepreneurs in the space, we ask them integratejmb whiskey in a way that feels authentic... give me an example. an example could be if we have an artist, we had an artist who created this book packaging for one of their products, and it was all their design come of what they wanted, their vision. if they are a content
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maker and they have an event screaming they sampled jmp whiskey there. i think i am screaming they sampled jmp whiskey there. i thinki am probably going to ask the same question as you. we will see, you can tell me afterwards. the people you're meeting, in their 20s, these are young people who have not grown up under apartheid, many of them you said to us earlier, their parents would not have had access to education going on to further education going on to further education if they were from the black community and you are seeing a shift from that point of view. absolutely, it had a difficult political background and i think when you look at this now, there is a hungerfor when you look at this now, there is a hunger for making when you look at this now, there is a hungerfor making a change and authentically telling the african story from africa. a lot of the entrepreneurs we work with tell us how africa is portrayed by western media outside the country and it's a brilliant place, vibra nt media outside the country and it's a brilliant place, vibrant place, lots going on, it this is an opportunity to give people a platform to tell the world what is going on. why are you concentrating on women? not
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women specifically, we had 20% women in yearone, the women specifically, we had 20% women in year one, the second intake that was down to 15% and that was important for us to recognise whether the barriers to entry was something we were doing or something coming externally. interesting statistics, look out there, men are 60% more likely to get funding for their business than women when pitching the same idea, so it's like 0k, pitching the same idea, so it's like ok, what can we do to try and level the playing field? why, do you think? we asked men and women to save what is the barrier, why are people not coming in, what is the hesitation? and interesting enough, women are at more risk averse, this is what we found and they like to be fully prepared when they have got a business idea and have a long vision for it. what we found with male entrepreneurs, they would tested quickly, doesn't matter, we will make it work. we win it. i think that's it. you look, there is a
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massive lack of skills and training in south africa as a market, the global entrepreneurship index ranks south africa at 55 out of 137. you provide mentoring as well. i want to getan provide mentoring as well. i want to get an example of a kind of business which you have brought on, a woman running it. can you give me an idea of the kind of person you have brought on? absolutely, a lady who does fashion for plus size woman, she recognised as a plus size woman herself there was few channels and outlets for her to have great fashionable clothing so she set it up, got some products out there and recently was invited to brussels for fashion week and it has escalated. how do you bring that intojmb? fashion week and it has escalated. how do you bring that into jmb? it's a co nte nt how do you bring that into jmb? it's a content play as well, the brand can go we have this amazing woman showing at fashion week, working with celebrities and we can create stories out of that and the brand can use it on their content. fascinating. thank you so much for
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coming in, it really is fascinating andi coming in, it really is fascinating and i imagine you could serve whiskey. you prepare so well before these programmes and ijust wing it. that is why you need more women on the boards. it is true. let's tell you how to stay in touch with us. we will keep you up—to—date with all the latest analysis and we want to hear from you, the latest analysis and we want to hearfrom you, get the latest analysis and we want to hear from you, get involved in the bbc business live web page. on twitter, and you can find us on facebook. business live on tv and online. whenever you need to know. joining us is richard hunter, head of research, wilson king investment management. you have just heard from michelle how to keep in touch with us, you
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have not held back, we are talking about the leonardo da vinci painting which went for $400 million. a lot more to this story than what happened overnight. quite apart from the eye watering figure of $400 million, this is a painting which for example in 1958 was sold in a london auction for £45. there is a bit of inflation for you. underneath all of that it would appear in the art community there is some debate as to further its a real, genuine, da vinci at all. i always have my doubts! laughter soul underneath that, a quite extraordinary thing, not 100% justifiable potentially. the other thing, it's an absolute public relations triumph in terms of the marketing campaign for christies, they send out videos previous to the auction, they have been dropping up interest and they
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have had $100 million reserve. ironically it was sold in 1958 for $45. ironically it was sold in 1958 for $45, at auction in london. the way they describe it, fascinating, they hyped it up as this amazing event, it's like discovering a new planet. that was christies. absolutely right, the other thing they did was put it into the contemporary art sale when of course it is an old master. isn't that the czar? that's because the old masters market is... doesn't appear to be as sexy. it is interesting that leonardo vinci is a contemporary! let's see what some of you have to say, camilla who says, it's got nothing to do with art, it was worth $10,000 some years ago, it's just about money. chuck says art is like the emperor's new clothes, it is to whoever bought it. i guess. i wonder what will happen to it. as it is going to sit in a room and someone
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to it. as it is going to sit in a room and someone will look at it? some are hoping it will go on display and an art gallery in new york. we don't know yet. what would you do with it, richard?” york. we don't know yet. what would you do with it, richard? i would probably do witches hang onto it for about five years and sell it at a massive profit? sold about three times in the last 12 years. in 2005 at $10,000, and we have 127 million last purchased prior to this. no shortage of money around. was watching another option the other day for the biggest diamond... in geneva. went for 29, christies really on a roll. they are, they absolutely. and we've got a couple of people within the story saying this marketing is the way forward. richard thanks so much. if you bought it, let us know. that's it from business live today. good morning, going to get colder it
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through the course of today but with colder are moving in we will see sunshine. the sunshine coming in behind this weather front, this cold front and with it some outbreaks of rain which will ease as we push further south. after a bright start in southern areas. behind weather front some sparkling sunshine this afternoon. to end the day, war cloud across south—west england into the south—east, mild are here, temperatures reaching a maximum of 15 degrees in the far south—east, head for midlands, wells, northern england, scotland, northern ireland, sunshine developing, turning colder. temperatures dropping and with that colder air and showers across scotland, the risk of some snow over higher ground, even down to low—level suite could see some help. tonight at cloud in the south clearing, showers across northern areas which could turn wintry. a
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cold night. temperatures in towns and cities between 2—4d. in the countryside falling below freezing, any of us on friday could need to de—ice the car with some frost around. a lovely start to the date for most. lots of sunshine. showers continuing across scotland throughout friday. quite a strong wind, some showers turning heavy. a little bit wintry over higher ground. sunny spells on friday, fine day, but cold, temperatures between 7-10d. day, but cold, temperatures between 7—10d. called are over the weekend, milderair 7—10d. called are over the weekend, milder air trying to merge from the south, southern parts during saturday, just a little bit less cold, the boundary between the cold and mild are bringing outbreaks of rain on saturday across central and southern parts. to the north, drier weather, sunshine in the far north—east. going into sunday, we
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will see largely dry weather, high—pressure trying to hold on, whether it systems edging their way in from the west, we could see rain across northern ireland into wales, south—west england, but the majority on sunday, should be dry, the best of the sunshine across the far east. more details available on the website. that's all from me. goodbye. hello it's thursday. it‘ 9 o'clock, i'm chloe tilley, welcome to the programme. police investigating the grenfell tower tragedy say 70 people and a still—born baby make up the final death toll. everyone has now been identified. we'll have the details. zimba bwe's elderly leader, robert mugabe, remains under house arrest this morning. he's being held by the country's military in what many see as a move to stop him handing power to his wife. jacob zuma has sent a team from
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south africa to reach out to the different leaders here, in the military, as well as president robert mugabe, to try to form some sort of solution. that is what the people are waiting for. we'll have the latest and find out what ordinary zimbabweans think of what's going on.
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