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tv   BBC News Special  BBC News  September 9, 2019 9:00pm-10:30pm BST

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are you hello, i'm christian fraser, you're watching a bbc news special. mps in westminster are due to vote again on holding a snap election, before parliament is suspended. this is the scene live in the house of commons where mps are once again debating brexit, the vote on an election is due to take place close to midnight. de ayes to the right, 311, the noes wrote to the left... earlier the government sufered another defeat, with mps voting to force it to hand over documents and messages
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between officials, about a no—deal brexit earlier in dublin, the prime minister held talks with his irish counterpart and insisted he wanted to avoid a no deal brexit. be in no doubt, that outcome would bea be in no doubt, that outcome would be a failure in statecraft for what would be all of our responsibility. if there is no deal it will be a failure for british and irish people alike. you can send in any questions you have to us here at open source. it's a crucial week for the future of the uk. tonight, mps will be voting again on whether to hold a general
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election before the brexit deadline of 31 october. borisjohnson tried this last week but couldn't get the votes. that will happen again in the next few hours. parliament has already passed one motion tonight — demanding the government release documents and messages sent between key officials — about a no—deal brexit. this was the moment in parliament... the ayes to the right 311, the noes wrote to the left, 302. —— noes to the left, 320. the ayes to the right 311, the noes to the left, 302. —— noes to the left, 320. unlock! so, another defeat for the government.
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the motion forces the publication of private text messages between mps on the proroguing or the suspension of parliament. it also requires the government to publish more detail on its assessment of the impact of no—deal, the yellowhammer report. this is their preparedness for a no—deal brexit, but whether those documents will be forthcoming remains to be seen, because we had a similar motion last year regarding the backstop, but that details not so the backstop, but that details not so forthcoming. we will watch to see what happens and we will hope to speak to dominic grieve who brought that motion this evening late in the programme. you mention that number ten might not be obliged to offer up these text messages and documents, what is available to mps who voted for the motion to make sure it
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happens? the difficulty is the fact that parliament is about to be prorogued, of course, for the next five weeks. we will hear from dominic grieve later, as i said, but back before they had the vote on the widdall agreement, it back before they had the vote on the widdallagreement, it took back before they had the vote on the widdall agreement, it took them all the —— the withdrawal agreement, it took them a long time, and it was only when keir starmer demanded they published it, that they got some detail, but not all of it was forthcoming. summer will be sceptical about what documents might be provided. —— some. sceptical about what documents might be provided. -- some. so much going on at the moment, the issue of proroguing parliament which was
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greeted with fury when it happens, it has not gone on to the back burner but this is one of a number of issues being discussed. opposition mps are still furious? yes, they are, there has been debate about it today, and part of the discussion for the dominic grieve motion was about the reasoning behind it, was it to shorten the debate? or was it as borisjohnson says, for a new prime minister to put forward a queen's speech and his legislative programme? his critics would say that is difficult to believe because he is also calling foran believe because he is also calling for an election. there is concern about it and it takes us all the way to the 14th of october meaning there is only a fortnight between that and the official brexit cut—off date as it stands at the moment which is the sist it stands at the moment which is the 31st of october. just to say, the house has approved jeremy corbyn‘s motion that the government should
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uphold the law, namely the legislation that they passed last week. demanding that the prime minister go back to brussels and request the extension if there is no deal agreed with the eu by the 17th of october. we can now speak to dominic grieve. he brought the emergency motion this evening. what are the government hiding? i don't necessarily know exactly, but there have been indications that the government has not been forthright and clear about their reasons for prorogation. the prime minister's office said in late august there is no talk of proroguing and then he said later on he thought prorogation was a good idea but we now know from documents that have already emerged that the prime minister was annotating memos over a week earlier about prorogation, and after that it
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started to become apparent there was no official in whitehall who was prepared to swear an affidavit explaining how the government had come about deciding to prorogue, so once that happened information it started to leak out to mps, all of the same characters saying it was suggesting that in fact there had been a plan, a plot if you would like to call it, in order to prorogue parliament and marginalise it and prevent it interfering with a no—deal brexit and that that was in contemplation by the middle of august if not earlier. you call it a plot but it is entirely constitutional and indeed the prerogative of the prime minister to prorogue parliament, that is in his power. absolutely, but the government must act with clean hands. governments must not mislead the public or parliament or anybody
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else about why they are doing something. it is central to the way the uk government operates, it is the uk government operates, it is the responsibility of ministers especially the attorney general and other ministers and the civil service to make sure that the government is telling the truth. at all times. and is factually accurate. it is an extremely serious matter if a government decides to mislead the public, and if it is inaccurate by inadvertence it should corrected as quickly as possible and it certainly should not seek to conceal a motive if in fact the true motive is other than the one they are putting forward. you are well versed in what discussions will have gone on behind closed doors and there might have been a array of reasons why they have prorogued, they may have wanted a queen's speech, this is the longest parliament in many years, so it could be, both things could be true, he wanted a queen's speech and it was convenient to prorogue
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parliament so he could create space in his negotiation with the eu? he should not have said what he said, and furthermore there has been litigation in front of the courts where the government has a duty of candour in which they seem to have been unable to produce a short account of why they had decided to prorogue, and that raises alarm bells for me. it seems to be part of a slide where standards of government arejust a slide where standards of government are just slipping away, and if that is the case the uk's ability to maintain its parliamentary democracy is at risk of being undermined. i should not have had to make today's application, it should not have been necessary , application, it should not have been necessary, and i asked the minister at the dispatch box when he was winding up, could he explain why no official had been able to swear an affidavit? there was no answer. he just avoided the question. very quickly, before i let you go, there was a motion in november last year
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to get the advice the attorney general provided to theresa may on the backstop and that advice was not forthcoming and in fact they had to be another motion from keir starmer in december, so what happens if the government is not forthcoming with this information? i trust very much that the government will be forthcoming and i trust that in the next 48 hours, but if they are not, it isa next 48 hours, but if they are not, it is a very serious matter. and at some point when parliament comes back it will be able to attend to it but i have to say this should not be necessary and if this is what the government is planning to do, it is really serious, it amounts effectively to a revolution in our constitutional affairs. dominic grieve, thanks forjoining us. those are the thoughts of dominic grieve. it sounds to me that they will take it further if those documents are not forthcoming but they cannot do it until parliament comes back which is the 14th of october. christian, thank you. we
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have plenty to explain. as well as the news we have heard reflected on, and parliament has approved a motion requiring the government to uphold the rule of law, this was the scene inside parliament. the government has said it will test to the limit a new law which forces boris johnson to go back to the eu and ask what a brexit extension if a deal is not done between the uk and the eu by october the 19th. legal experts, some of them have said that could put the prime minister in contempt of court, although we don't know if he will seek to circumvent this law. at the moment not much is known about the strategy he will deploy in the coming weeks. the motion was put forward by the opposition leader jeremy corbyn. i hope the prime minister will live up to the office he holds and accept the decision is made of this parliament and carry
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out the wishes of that bill, that act, to make sure that an application is made to prevent this country crashing out on the 31st of october with all the damage that will do to food supplies, medicine supplies, industrial supplies and his longer term ambitions of heading this country in a totally different direction which many many people are truly frightened. conservative mpjohn redwood is a chief proponent of brexit and a critic of the new hilary benn law. here he is urging parliament to think again. this undermines the prime minister and more importantly it undermines oui’ and more importantly it undermines our country, it makes it extremely unlikely that all those remain supporting mps who could live with oui’ supporting mps who could live with our exit with a variant of the withdrawal agreement are not going to get that because they have deliberately undermined the pressure oui’ deliberately undermined the pressure our prime minister may place on the european union in his negotiations he is trying to undertake. this is
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dominic raab. dominic raab is a former brexit secretary and now the foreign secretary — he's taken a hardline view on brexit. here he is defending the government in the commons today. this government will always respect the rule of law. that has been our clear position consistently and frankly it is outrageous that that is even in doubt. of course, how the rule of law will be respected is normally straightforward, but sometimes it can be more complex. because there are conflicting laws and competing legal advice. that has happened today. this is another element of the brexit story. the speaker of the house of commonsjohn bercow announced he would stand down. if the house votes tonight for a early general election, my ten years
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as speaker and my time as mp will end when this parliament ends, and if the house does not so vote i have concluded that the least disruptive and most democratic course of action would be for me to stand down at the close of business on thursday october 31. because we know plenty about that date because that is the brexit deadline. the speaker is elected by mps in a secret ballot and holds a key role — he or she chairs debates and rules on procedure. mr bercow‘s done the job since 2009. he's been critical of boris johnson of late — calling the decision to prorogue
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a constitutional outrage. more generally, brexiteers in the conservative party believe he has tried to obstruct brexit — something he denies. well, earlier he turned to his decision last week to allow mps to try and take control of the parliament's business — which paved the way for them to block a no deal brexit. to deploy a perhaps dangerous phrase, i have also sought to be the backbench‘s backstop... phrase, i have also sought to be the backbench's backstop... laughter not everyone is a fan. this is an article by the business secretary andrea leadsom in which she blamesjohn bercow for "giving power to the opposition." and announced the conservatives would stand a candidate against him at the next election — which is a complete break with convention. although as he's standing down that's no longer going to happen. so, that's the conservatives. here's labour leaderjeremy corbyn
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with his assessment. this parliament is stronger for your being speaker and our democracy is the stronger for your being the speaker, and whatever you do when you finally step down from parliament, you do so with the thanks of a very large number of people. and as one who has made the role of speaker in the house more powerful and not as powerful, i welcome that. —— not less powerful. christian fraser is in westminster. what connection does this have to the people at home? it matters because he's the man sitting in the middle, and he is supposed to neutral in that position but of course he was a remainer and people would say, his critics, they would say he has facilitated one side against the other, and so in choosing when to go, the 31st of
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october, so parliament can choose his successor, in a way he lays down an opportunity for parliament to pick somebody that is more in keeping with their position, and that has been one of the big debates. we can pick that up now. in setting the terms for the date that he goes and saying this parliament chooses my successor, he has a very big bearing on what comes next? parliament will have the advantage when they are looking at candidates for a speaker in choosing between people they know, instead of a different set of mps which might... at the moment it doesn't have a working majority, of course, the government. at the moment they can achieve very little whether that is legislation or choosing the speaker. if he had set his leaving date for art of the general election you might have had a conservative
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government with a majority and that might have resulted in a different speaker? —— after the general election. it might have done and that might have been a factor in his decision, as well as a need to move things along, and that the parliamentary agenda goes at a rapid clip because this is quite a busy period. that might have been a factor in his decision but who can say? those who support john bercow will say he facilitated the role of parliament and that was the crucial thing he did. dominic grieve has been on the programme, talking about the emergency motion he put down, he has got that approved. the government is obliged to provide not only its reasons for proroguing parliament but also crucially the documents that support the operation yellowhammer document in a whole —— asa yellowhammer document in a whole —— as a whole. these are the preparedness documents. as a whole. these are the preparedness documentslj
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as a whole. these are the preparedness documents. i wonder if those documents might be more consequential in the short term, because in parliament there was debate about the propriety of asking people to provide private social media posts, chat which might be private, but with the yellowhammer brexit prepared a document it is harderfor brexit prepared a document it is harder for the government to say, you can't have that. although there have been lea ks you can't have that. although there have been leaks from that, there might be important details they need to know about the state of brexit preparedness, things like stockpiling of medicines, what medicines are being stockpiled? which are at risk? details like this will be very important in the short term, and! will be very important in the short term, and i don't want to dismiss the argument about the government's motives in terms of race war parliament but the yellowhammer —— the government's motives in terms of proroguing parliament but the yellowhammer documents may be more
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important. it has been said the yellowhammer document which was prepared through july, is yellowhammer document which was prepared throuthuly, is not really releva nt prepared throuthuly, is not really relevant anymore. that is the line government ministers can use but can you enlighten us with what has been said since the document, that would be the follow—up to that. whether or not it is outdated, opposition mps would clearly like to have it at their disposal. thanks forjoining us. in the commons at the moment they are discussing a crucial issue, a sub—issue in a way, because we are waiting for the vote of the general election, but they are discussing northern ireland at the moment, and if there were a new deal, northern ireland being without an executive, it would be critical to put something in place, and maybe there would have to be direct rule in northern ireland but the problem is if you introduce legislation to do that it would be amendable. the
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government is resisting putting any new legislation in. it is not a good time at the moment when you don't have a majority to be tidying up in the house of commons for all the problems it could cause for boris johnson. thanks, kristian. if you -- if —— if you have any questions for christian, send them in. now parliament has passed a law that insists the the prime minister asks for a brexit delay — if there's no deal by october 19. borisjohnson has said he'd rather be be "dead in a ditch" than ask for an extension. trouble is he also failed in his efforts to get an election in mid—october — which means he's on course to be in power if and when that law kicks in. despite all this — he does have some options — four of them, we think. let's work through them.
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option1 is accepting the bill and having an election — but some time after october 31st. let's speak to rob watson. how does this work? it is something which the prime minister is incredibly reluctant to do, he said he would rather die in a ditch and ask for an extension to the brexit process but theoretically despite what he said and the difficulty politically, he could basically say he understands he can't have an early election on the 15th of october and he accepts this law that says they cannot be a no—deal brexit, and so he could say he accepts the extension and then he is going to have an election and my goodness the theme of that election is going to be, the people versus parliament, all those pesky people we have been watching the last few weeks, he will say, who stood in the way of people getting their brexit. 0k. the second option is that
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borisjohnson could get a deal with the eu before october 19. some critics argue he may not even want one. take for instance amber rudd who resigned from the cabinet at the weekend saying she'd seen no evidence of work being done on a deal. and she said that "80—90% of government time is going into preparing for no—deal". mrjohnson insists that doesn't mean he prefers no deal. this was earlier in dublin. i want to find a deal. i want to get the deal. like you, i look carefully at no deal and i've assessed its consequences for our country and yours, and yes, of course, we could do it, the uk could certainly get through it, but be in no doubt that outcome would be a failure of statecraft for which we would all be
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responsible. i'll turn to the prime minister's trip to dublin in more detail later. next here's option 3 — this one is politically nuclear. boris johnson resigns to force a general election. how would this work? as i understand this option, and i didn't scribble them down, so i should understand them, ——i them down, so i should understand them, —— i did scribble them down, soi them, —— i did scribble them down, so i should understand them, the prime there is no way he is writing foran prime there is no way he is writing for an extension to the brexit process , for an extension to the brexit process, he resigns on someone else has to write the letter, namely jeremy corbyn, the leader of the opposition —— the prime minister says there is no way he is writing foran says there is no way he is writing for an extension. and then we have a general election on the basis of the people versus parliament, boris johnson is the one who will finally get brexit delivered, as he would say, versus jeremy get brexit delivered, as he would say, versusjeremy corbyn at the other opposition parties who have
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been standing in the way —— and the other opposition parties. borisjohnson says he will abide by the law, but we know his team have been exploring their options of bypassing it, without breaking it. and that brings us to option 4. ready for this? the prime minister could send two letters to the eu — one which asks for brexit, and another which sets out that the government doesn't want a delay at all. the daily telegraph calls this the ‘sabotage plan'. lord falconer wasjustice secretary under tony blair whe labour was in power. "statutory purpose of request letter is to get extension. "to seek to destroy statutory
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purpose is to break law." the criminal bar association had a similiar assessment. it says such a move, "undermines the entire justice "system, opens the door wide open to mob rule and very "quickly to anarchy." "the law applies equally to everyone; this "is what the rule of law means." and this the former supreme courtjustice lord sumption on the bbc‘s today programme. to send the letter and then try and neutralise it seems to me to be plainly a breach of the act. i think you have got to realise that the courts are not very fond of loopholes. they're going to interpret this act in a way that gives effect to its obvious purpose unless there's something in the act that makes it completely impossible to do so. and there isn't. if boris johnson did go down this route — and we should say we don't know if he is willing to — he may commit a criminal offence.
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the financial times writes... "this issue is a test case for strongman politics — and puts borisjohnson in a group of other leaders who have shown willingness to break the law. none of which means the prime minister will choose this route. but it's an option. none of these are great options?” was about to say, first of all, massive condiments to the production tea m massive condiments to the production team at open source, what an amount of work you have been doing exploring option four, and regarding those options, it reminds me, it makes me think of the way in which the brexit deadlock doth make men mad, forgive me for mangling shakespeare. and to be fair to the brexiteers, they would say when you
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look about getting round the law, we represent people who are furious that brexit hasn't happened, but to not be a politician, i suppose, and to get round to answering your question, none of the options are great, and one criticism that could be made of borisjohnson is that last week he effectively lost control of the brexit process when he lost a couple of key votes in parliament and of course lost his majority and booted out a number of conservatives into the bargain. quick question on the practicalities of those who are trying to take on borisjohnson. at of those who are trying to take on boris johnson. at the of those who are trying to take on borisjohnson. at the moment they are based in westminster and they are based in westminster and they are talking to each other and they are talking to each other and they are in the same building, but parliament is about to be prorogued and presumably they go home and the coordination becomes harder? yes and no. one of the reasons why it is thought that parliament... why the government wanted parliament
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suspended was to stop too many troublesome questions, but politics will continue and the parties will be having their political conferences like their conventions in the us, and my goodness there's the media, my dear chap, and the idea of taking the message out to the people. politics will continue and the idea it will stop until the 14th of october is ridiculous. they will still have jobs and the debate will still have jobs and the debate will go on. the question they could not answer, the question —— the question i could not answer, which of the options the prime minister will go for, i have no idea, but stay tuned. if you keep watching you will find out eventually. we only need you to explain what is happening now, we don't need you to predict the future! thanks for joining us. we can now turn to what boris johnson has been doing today. he has
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beenin johnson has been doing today. he has been in dublin visiting leo varadkar. johnson said that a no deal brexit would be a failure of statecraft from both sides. there is already a deal between the uk and the eu — agreed after months of negotiations. but the uk's parliament keeps rejecting it. in part because many brexiteers objected to the irish border backstop. we have spoken about this a lot. it's designed to ensure that there are no border checks between the republic of ireland and northern ireland in the event britain and europe can't agree a new trade deal. it does it by keeping the uk aligned to the eu's customs union — which means the uk can't make its own trade deals. borisjohnson wants the backstop gone, he says it's undemocratic, because britain can't get out of it unless the eu signs a trade deal.
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the eu is adamant it must stay — in part to maintain peace on the island of ireland. in part to protect its single market. and that's the nub of the deadlock. borisjohnson wants the uk out of the eu's single market and customs union. and doesn't want checks on the irish border. and he hasn't convinced the eu he has worked out how to do that. with all that in mind, here's the irish prime minister with borisjohnson earlier. avoiding a return to hard border on this island, protecting our place in the single market, are the irish government's priorities in all circumstances. we must protect the peace and also the burgeoning all ireland economy. and that is why for us the backstop continues to be a critical component of the withdrawal agreement. unless and until alternatives are found. but we are open to alternatives, but they must be realistic ones, legally binding and workable, and we haven't received such proposals to date.
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body languages experts have had a field day trying to work out what to make of borisjohnson's reacting as he listened. here you go. a hair rub, then something close to an aerobics move. that generated a lot of comment. as did this. prime minister, negotiating ftas with the eu and the us and securing their ratification in less than three years i think is going to be a herculean task for you. but we do want to be your friend and your ally, your athena in doing so. and i think the manner in which you leave the european union will determine whether that is possible. interesting choice by leo varadkar — he plays athena to boris johnson's hercules. richard chambers is a journalist in ireland. "for the benefit of those of us not classically—educated... hercules went mad and killed
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his wife and children but athena stepped in, knocked him out and stopped his killing spree. she then helped him through the rest of his 12 labours to atone for his streak of lunacy." well, we heard leo varadkar arguing there can be no ‘clean break‘ with brexit. but look at this. pollster yougov tweeted this today. "a majority of both conservative (55%) and leave (60%) voters think a no—deal brexit would result in a clean break from the eu, meaning the country could then focus on something else". i don't mean to be the bearer of bad news, but whatever the rights and wrongs of a no deal, brexit‘s not going anywhere. aside from the ongoing realignment of british politics, the ongoing push for a new independence referendum in scotland, and the uk economy widely predicted to take a sizeable hit with a no deal — brexit itself is in the foothills. even if the uk leaves with a deal, the nature of new trade deals
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with the eu and others will be highly politicised and will take years. if the uk leaves without a deal — all those issues we know so well — the irish border, citizens rights, the divorce bill — will be in future negotiations over trade. and they will take years. plus — and i don't mean to keep saying this but it matters — if the uk wants to exit the eu's single market and customs union, and treat the uk as one entity rather than treating northern ireland differently, and wants to avoid any border checks between northern ireland and the republic of ireland — someone has to come up with a plan that currently doesn't exist or at least hasn't been shared with us. and will need to create a border like no other on earth. that's not to say it's not possible — but it's unlikely to be quick or without controversy. one of the options boris johnson has been looking at involves a common food standards zone across the island of ireland.
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that means once britain leaves the eu, frictionless trade could continue for agriculture at least. here's john campbell from bbc northern ireland. many brexit supporters say you can use technical and technological means like trusted traders schemes. but when it comes to food standards those sorts of schemes simply will not wash. that is because the eu has very strict rules on the imports of food. basically if food products are coming into the eu from an non—member state, they must go through a border inspection post and that post must be very close to the frontier. so that would lead to hardening of the border in ireland. so one way round that is for northern ireland to continue to follow the same rules as the republic of ireland. effectively continue to follow those eu rules. that would build upon something which already exists because when animals are coming into northern ireland from great britain they are already checked. they are checked at the northern ireland ports but not checked as they cross the border into the republic of ireland.
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so you could just expand on that scheme, so as well as checking cows you are checking lasagne, checking all sorts of other foodstuffs as they come in to northern ireland. sounds sensible, but for unionists, those people who treasure the link between northern ireland and the rest of the uk, it creates a problem because they say we could end up in a situation where northern ireland is following rules which are not set in the stormont parliament in belfast, not set in westminster, in fact set in brussels. so they said they would only consider an all ireland food zone if the stormont government, the stormont parliament, would have some say, perhaps even a veto over those rules. another option that's being given serious consideration is changing the backstop so that it only applied to northern ireland. theresa may's version of the backstop would keep all of the uk in the eu's customs union to allow frictionless movement of goods. parliament rejected that three times. but it may come back — with only northern ireland in the backstop.
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i wonder what the eu makes of that idea. here's katya adler, europe editor. it was its original and preferred backstop plan. it was theresa may that asked for the backstop to apply to the whole of the united kingdom. the eu thinks the northern ireland only backstop ticks a lot of boxes for both sides. from the eu perspective it allows it to protect its single market and a member state, ireland, and the northern ireland peace process. and the eu thinks from the uk perspective it would allow great britain to make whatever trade deals it wants while northern ireland economically could benefit from the advantages of both sides and politically could keep its relationship unchanged with the rest of the united kingdom. now polls indicate in northern ireland that the majority there are in favour of the backstop. and recently the prime minister has said he was open when it comes to trade in agricultural products for northern ireland to be aligned with ireland. so why not for the rest of trade, asked the eu.
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the eu knows that the prime minister if he is open to the idea of the northern ireland only backstop, needs the numbers in parliament and there will be some unionist opposition, for sure. could he pull it off before a general election? or after a general election? that is one of the reasons the eu leaders are very likely indeed to grant another brexit extension if the prime minister asks for it. yes, france at the weekend said don't take that extension for granted but all the rest of my contacts across the eu say forget france, we know they like playing brexit bad cop. if the rest of eu leaders are in favour of an extension then france is very unlikely to veto it. helen is with us now. where have we got to the honest external evening? this evening we had an emergency debate in parliament and mps have voted to pass what is called humble
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address to compel the government to publish its operation yellowhammer planning documents, the documents for the fallout of a no—deal brexit. ministers have until wednesday evening to produce here in the house of commons. but the humble address also included are part compelling the government to publish text m essa 9 es the government to publish text messages exchanged on messaging apps. messages exchanged on messaging apps, e—mails exchanged between nine government advisers including some of the most senior aides in downing street about the decision to prorogue parliament which is due to happen later tonight. this was brought by former conservative mp dominic grieve who said he wanted to explore allegations about white that decision was made. the government said it was disappointed the humble address was passed and described the information asked for is unprecedented and disproportionate and said it will now consider the implications of this boat and respond in due course. in terms of the vote later on with regards to an election everyone i can find seems
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to be saying this is not going to go how borisjohnson to be saying this is not going to go how boris johnson wants. opposition parties have been clearer sang they will not back it and because this is done under the fixed—term parliaments act is not good enough for borisjohnsonjust parliaments act is not good enough for boris johnson just to parliaments act is not good enough for borisjohnson just to get a majority, he needs two thirds of mps to vote for this. opposition parties say they will not do that because they do not trust him to make the election pass over the 31st of october or some other engineer i no—deal brexit from that so will not lead to a poll until it is impossible to have a no—deal brexit so we expect that to fail once again and then we expect parliament to be formally later tonight. thank you very much. let's go to speak to miami grimly. what kind of
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conversations have you had about where borisjohnson has got to?m feels that he has left himself little room for manoeuvre and in pa rt little room for manoeuvre and in part that is because he dealt with those tory rebels in such a strict way with a heavy stick rather than trying to persuade them or perhaps using more subtle methods. for example means that he can kiss goodbye now to the idea of an election in october. the fact that mps will not be sitting beyond today will mean that at the earliest willie an election can be held for him is around the 21st of november. that is an example of how his tactics have essentially blown up in a face and handed to his opponents with the power to say when an election will be. let me ask you about theresa may and her deal, we had a stephen clinic of the labour
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party trying to bring that back and we heard katya adler saying if there was a change to the nature of the backstop perhaps the eu could be interested. is there any appetite at all to bring this back and if there we re all to bring this back and if there were how would that happen?m all to bring this back and if there were how would that happen? it is interesting because earlier when we we re interesting because earlier when we were listening to borisjohnson and leo varadkar are talking at that press co nfe re nce leo varadkar are talking at that press conference there seem to be a slight change in tone from the prime minister. he said no deal would be a failure of statecraft from which we would all be held responsible. of course he is partly talking to an irish audience but also it is a sign that he realises that being the prime minister in place when a no deal happens with all the predictions of economic turmoil and problems to things like medicine supplies, may not be he may not want to be the prime minister in charge at that time. so it is quite possible that he will try and
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reintroduce the theresa may deal but perhaps with some changes and possibly as we have been talking about going back to these idea of a northern ireland only backstop. which ironically was the first suggestion from michel barnier and one theresa may got changed because she wanted to appease the democratic unionists. well we've had a message from the us saying that the uk opts backin from the us saying that the uk opts back in brexit happens?m from the us saying that the uk opts back in brexit happens? if brexit happens the uk would have to just apply again like any other wannabe state but that would mean they would have to sign up to certain things that they have not had to sign up to in the past. for example being a member of the euro and also a member of the schengen zone. so it could create more problems than britain has at the moment and some would say they have the ideal economic
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situation as it is. thank you very much. good to speak to you. one journalist saying some downing street sources say boris johnson journalist saying some downing street sources say borisjohnson may help to bring back some of the 21 conservative mps who he expelled last week. at the moment that is just unnamed sources so we will see how that shakes down. but there does remain pressure on borisjohnson over that decision to expel those 21. on the point we should make, to understand this week in politics or even what is happening just on monday we need to remember what happened last week. on tuesday boris johnson suffered his first defeat when parliament voted 328 to 301 to take control of parliamentary business the next day. 21 tory members were expelled from the conservative party after rebelling against the government.
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the prime minister also lost his working majority when philip lee mp defected tojoin the liberal democrats. then on wednesday, parliament approved a bill, put forward by labour mp hillary benn, to block a no—deal brexit. that went through. so after insisting he didn't want an election, borisjohnson then asked mps to vote for one on october 15. they didn't. on to thursday — and the morning featured the prime minister's brotherjojohnson quitting as a minister and an mp — because of brexit. he said he was "torn between family loyalty and the national interest". the day finished with this speech at a police training centre in west yorkshire.
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the prime minister put in an odd rambling low energy performance. but did say he would rather die in a ditch than ask for a brexit delay — which is a soundbite that stuck. let's ta ke let's take a look at what is happening in the house of commons. debates are continuing, they began this afternoon with the announcement that the speak of the house john barker was standing down. they then spent over an hour largely paying tribute tojohn barker spent over an hour largely paying tribute to john barker and spent over an hour largely paying tribute tojohn barker and then moved on to debate one motion brought by dominic grieve, former attorney general. he wants messages and documents from within the number ten machine handed over to mps so they can better understand the thinking on a no—deal brexit. there was a second motion brought by the labour leaderjeremy corbyn about the rule of law and a fierce debate about whether that law proposed by
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hilary benn that blocks the prime minister from hilary benn that blocks the prime ministerfrom pursuing a no—deal brexit has put in an impossible position where it is reasonable to consider not following a law. that case made by some eurosceptics and on the flip side of that we had from people like jo on the flip side of that we had from people likejo swinson leader of the opposition liberal democrats who made a passionate argument that it was absurd that the house of commons was absurd that the house of commons was even having a debate about whether a prime minister should follow the rule of law. then we go into this evening where we get another boat on whether to have a snap election, this brought by the prime minister but as we have been hearing in the last few minutes the chances of that going through are very low. bearing in mind all of that let's bring in christian in westminster in a moment. the final piece of the westminsterjigsaw today i should tell you about is that when this vote happens and we very much expect the prime minister to be defeated and for no election
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to be defeated and for no election to be defeated and for no election to be called, then it is prorogued or suspended to use another word and that means that for five weeks mps will not sit in the house of commons. i should emphasise it is not like they would have been met by the whole five weeks anyway, as we have party conference season coming up have party conference season coming up so they would have been gone for several weeks but the amount of time that they have two debate matters concerning brexit and other policies has been reduced by the prime minister and his decision to prorogued parliament. he argues it is in orderfor him to be able to bring a queen's speech with a raft of new policies to pursue but in reality especially given his current parliamentary status with a number of mps that he commands, pursuing any policy is just about impossible. he has not won a single vote in the house of commons since he became prime minister and in fact i think i'm right in saying since in the middle ofjuly the government has not won a vote in the house of
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commons. that is the current state of british politics when you have a prime minister and a government who are not able to control the house of commons in any way so you have this absolute disconnect between what the prime minister wants and what the commons want. and when i read this general election happens and it seems unlikely to be in october, whenever it happens whether it november, december or later, one of the key dynamics in the campaign that we will see will be between one side saint parliament was stopping us side saint parliament was stopping us to our work, from delivering brexit and other saying well parliament is the core of british democracy and so it is entirely appropriate that mps vote in the way that they believe serves the needs of their constituents. that is the background. christian and miami are in westminster. i would like to
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understand what happens in the next five weeks, how do the parties go about setting out their stall and how did things get done?” about setting out their stall and how did things get done? i think borisjohnson is how did things get done? i think boris johnson is going how did things get done? i think borisjohnson is going to carry on in campaign mode so we can expect more government announcements as if an election is imminent. of course one of the problems for him is that he is no longer in control of the timing ofa he is no longer in control of the timing of a general election. it does not seem that we will get one now before the end of november. but of course the days are very short andi of course the days are very short and i think voters will not be in the mood for canvassers knocking at the mood for canvassers knocking at the door when they may be just want to go to bed early and have a few glasses of wine. we have seen surprisingly quite a lot of close alliance between the various opposition parties in the last few days and today the leaders of the opposition parties met again today.
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so spells while parliament is not sitting in the next five weeks they will consulting and talking together and one of the big decisions they need to take is what if within three days of coming back boris johnson resigns. would they support jeremy corbyn and sent him to brussels to deliver a letter in behalf of the uk parliament demanding that extension or when they pick someone else, a father figure or mother figure from the house of commons who would go on their behalfjust with that purpose before they declare an election. there's a lot to decide in the interim even though they're not sitting on the benches. and this is normally when parties thrash out positions and party conference, so labour has this nuanced position where it would negotiate a new deal and then possibly campaign against that deal. we'll wait thrash out that deal. we'll wait thrash out that kind of thing at the conferences? no doubt it would be discussed at the labour party co nfe re nce discussed at the labour party conference because many labour mps
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in remained constituencies are not happy with the current state of affairs namely as you say they would go to brussels and maybe negotiate a new deal although go to brussels and maybe negotiate a new deal althouthohn go to brussels and maybe negotiate a new deal although john mcdonnell said maybe just put the original theresa may deal in the referendum alongside and remain option. and then some of the mp5 would be able to campaign for remain and others would campaign for brexit. of course that underlines the divisions within the party so i'm sure that there will be a vociferous debate at party co nfe re nce will be a vociferous debate at party conference as to which way the girl and particularly looking at the opinion polls. for all the chaos that has been borisjohnson has been defeated five times if you include these votes tonight but in fact the tory figures are quite robust. they've gone up in some polls and labour really not going anywhere, the bill movies are the liberal democrats and they are taking votes from labour. so a lot of pressure on jeremy corbyn and the shadow front bench to come up with a proposal that takes it to the liberal democrats. i think it will also come
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into sharp relief at the conferences that there are these northern labour leader cleaning constituencies like wigan for example, middlesbrough, where labour is worried about the performance of the brexit party and feared that they may cheat them of traditional labour seats. so that will be played out at the conference, no doubt. a question from one viewer about the good friday agreement saying the european union signals that it cares about it a great deal but there is no mention of it in the restored deal. i think the suggestion is the irish border has become a political device by which to some ways undermined brexit. is that a view shared by any mps? in fairness to michel barnier if you hear him talk about northern ireland he talks about the good friday agreement being one of the great european achievements of the la st great european achievements of the last 20 years. so it is one of those things that europe believesjust like the single market that it wants
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to defend. i think the problem is the whole brexit debate has got mired in the question of the border and that is why boris johnson mired in the question of the border and that is why borisjohnson might be tempted by this idea to put the border in the irish sea and have a northern ireland only backstop. an idea that michel barnier actually did suggest himself back when theresa may was prime minister but she switched to the idea of the uk wide backstop because she was under pressure at that time from the dup. i think the one thing i do not think the european union and the government in dublin have fully a nswered government in dublin have fully answered if what happens if there is no dealfor the answered if what happens if there is no deal for the both sides said they would not reimpose a high border and we had reports this weekend in the irish papers that maybe there would bea irish papers that maybe there would be a gradual approach to putting alternative arrangements in place south of the border. that there would be some understanding on the pa rt would be some understanding on the part of the eu but of course if you do that than the likes of alan
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patterson and the erg and eurosceptics here would say if you're not going to put a border back then why are we about the backstop, why do we not alljust talk about these alternative arrangements because you may need to use them if it comes to an ideal scenario. thank you both very much for the moment. we canjust look at this precise issue. at the centre of the current brexit escalation is the prospect of a no deal brexit. if it happens, the uk immediately leaves the european union, incluing all of its regulations and agreements — and its single market and the customs union. and there will be no agreements to replace all of these things. that means no plan for the border between northern ireland and the republic of ireland. ireland has already said it thinks checks near to the border are inevitable. the sinn fien party which wants a united island of ireland has already condemend this possibility.
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in terms of trade — the uk and eu would immediately revert to trading by world trade organisation regulations. brexiteers say this won't be a problem and will open up new trade deal opportunities — but business leaders say this would badly hurt their trade operations, which in turn hurts the united kingdom's economy. last week the bank of england boss mark carney told mps that in a worst case no deal scenario, the uk will see a "5.5% decline in gdp". today accountancy giant kpmg forecast that no deal could trigger "the uk's first recession for a decade". some brexiteers argue that the warnings are wrong. others argue that no deal isn't desirable, but that it is a necessary option in order to negotiate with the eu. for example, this is the chancellor sajid javid at the weeked. i will tell you what has been making the most difference to concentrate their minds
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is a preparation for no deal. we don't want no deal but if we have to we will leave on october the 31st with no deal. but it is that very issue, the fact that we are willing to do that that is focusing minds. there is though a concern among conservative rebels and opposition mps that no deal has moved from a bargaining chip to a policy. here's amber rudd — speaking after she resigned from cabinet at the weekend. there is this huge machine preparing for no deal, which is fine. you might expect in the balance between getting a deal and no deal, 50—50 in terms of work. but it's not that, it's like 80, 90% of government time going into preparing for no deal and the absence of actually trying to work to get a deal is what has driven 21 of my colleagues to rebel and i need tojoin them. this is where the public is on no deal. the graph combines five polls.
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slightly more people oppose no deal than support it — but it's tight. and rememberfor those who prefer it — the brexit party's policy is that no deal brexit is best. its leader nigel farage pushed back borisjohnson's claim that a no deal brexit would be a failure of statecraft. he says "a clean break brexit is the only way forward". but clean break is not necessarily the most accurate way to describe what may well happen. all the unresolved issues — the irish border, the divorce bill and so on — will be factors when the uk seeks a new trade deal with the eu. a really clean break would mean not seeking to establish new arrangements with the eu. not many brexiteers currently advocate that. now one thing we should be clear on that the brexit party doesn't have a monopoly on favouring no
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deal. this is the conservative mp nigel evans on the bbc‘s today programme earlier. mps should not pick and choose the laws that they obeyjust like mps should not pick and choose referendum results that they should obey either. and the obligation clearly on behalf of parliament is to deliver the brexit that people voted for. that is where we are. now at one minute to ten o'clock in the uk. house of commons here in westminster and there will be a relatively late night for those mps as they are still weeping some way away from voting on whether to grant the prime minister's wish for a new general election for the bear in mind last week he was defeated and did not get the votes that he required, did not get two thirds and has come back to
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call another vote. all the briefing suggest that he is not going to get this in action but the vote will come through in an hour to and we will find out one way or another for definite. now house of commons here in westminster and there will be a relatively late night for those mps as they are still weeping some way away from voting on whether to grant the prime minister's wish for a new general election for the bear in mind last week he was defeated and did not get the votes that he required, did not i'm ros atkins, this is outside source. mps are due to vote again on holding a snap election, before parliament is suspended. the vote on an election is due to take place close to midnight, before that a debate, with the prime minister to speak
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first, that's expected in the next few minutes. earlier the government sufered another defeat, with mps voting to force it to hand over documents and messages between officials, about a no—deal brexit an emotionalfarewell from the speaker of the house of commons, john bercow, as he announces he'll step down at the end of october. not everyone was applauding, he is a controversial figure. this has been — let me put it explicitly — the greatest privilege and honour of my professional life, for which i will be eternally grateful. if for which i will be eternally grateful. if you for which i will be eternally grateful. if you need for which i will be eternally grateful. if you need any for which i will be eternally grateful. if you need any more for which i will be eternally grateful. if you need any more background for which i will be eternally grateful. if you need any more background on for which i will be eternally grateful. if you need any more background on any for which i will be eternally grateful. if you need any more background on any elements for which i will be eternally grateful. if you need any more background on any elements of for which i will be eternally grateful. if you need any more background on any elements of the for which i will be eternally grateful. if you need any more background on any elements of the story for which i will be eternally grateful. if you need any more background on any elements of the story you for which i will be eternally grateful. if you need any more background on any elements of the story you can get for which i will be eternally grateful. any elements of the story you can get that for which i will be eternally grateful. any elements of the story you can get that online for which i will be eternally grateful. any elements of the story you can get that online whenever for which i will be eternally grateful. any elements of the story you can get that online whenever you for which i will be eternally grateful. any elements of the story you can get that online whenever you need for which i will be eternally grateful. any elements of the story you can get that online whenever you need it at for which i will be eternally grateful. get that online whenever you need it at the for which i will be eternally grateful. get that online whenever you need it at the bbc for which i will be eternally grateful. get that online whenever you need it at the bbc website.
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i've said this a few times but this really is a crucial week for the uk and while explaining about brexit is not rocket science it is starting to feel as complicated, but don't worry, we will work through the whole story step—by—step. first of all to what is happening in the next couple of hours. mps will be voting again on whether to hold a general election before the brexit deadline of the 31st of october. boris johnson tried this last week but could not get the votes. borisjohnson says a general election is necessary because mps have blocked the possibility of a no deal brexit — which he argues means he can't negotiate a good deal — and so needs a new mandate.
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but looks certain opposition mps will reject that — they argue an election before 31 october leaves open the possibility of a no deal brexit — which they refuse to allow. so there's a stand—off between government and parliament. the clock is ticking. that's coming to a head with 52 days until the eu's brexit deadline. so a lot to sort out. but the sorting out won't be done in parliament — as once that election vote is done, in a highly unusual move, parliament will be suspended for five weeks — at borisjohnson's request. that is focused on the next couple of hours. christian is in westminster. this is the pitch in the house of commons at the moment, we are into the northern ireland debate, nigel dodds of the dup is on his feet. nigel dodds had dinner with the prime minister this evening a p pa re ntly with the prime minister this evening apparently in the canteen. the previous prime minister did not eat in the mps canteen but borisjohnson
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was there talking with nigel dodds, presumably talking about his day in dublin. this is a precursor to the vote on a snap election which the prime minister will begin at ten o'clock, just after ten o'clock, very shortly, we are told. this is an important precursor because mid—october, the parliamentary authority for the civil service in northern ireland, without the stormont executive, runs out. the northern ireland secretary julian smith is of the opinion that they will have to have some emergency powers for northern ireland whether it is brexit or not on the 31st of october, but the government is in a fix over that because of it brings anything forward there is the possibility that the northern ireland bill would be amended and it could have many amendments on it. in a bit ofa could have many amendments on it. in a bit of a fix with that. later this evening we will have the vote on the snap election and this is the second vote that borisjohnson has brought about because he doesn't —— but
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because he doesn't have a working majority we expect opposition parties will deny him again that election and then shortly after when business has been concluded, parliament will be prorogued for five weeks, so the commons will march over to the house of lords for one of these arcane ceremonies they have in the palace of westminster, and this parliament, which has set four more days in any parliament since the english civil war, this parliamentary session will be brought to a close —— which has sat four more days. there were two emergency motions, one from dominic grieve who is demanding the evidence given to the prime minister ahead of his decision to prorogue parliament, or the text messages and e—mails and exchanges between him and his staff -- all exchanges between him and his staff —— all the text messages. what were the reasons for proroguing? dominic grieve is also asking for the
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details on the government's preparedness for no deal. i spoke to him earlier. they have been a number of indications that the government has not been forthright and clear about their reasons for prorogation and there's already evidence the government said, the prime minister's office said in late august, there is no talk of race—1—macro, and then later he said he thought prorogation was a good idea —— there is no talk of proroguing. but we know from documents that have emerged that the prime minister was annotating memos over a week earlier about prorogation and after that it started to become apparent there was no official in whitehall who was prepared to swear an affidavit explaining how the government had come about deciding to prorogue, so once that happened information started to leak out to mps, all of the same characters, saying, suggesting, it is only a suggestion, i can't verify it, but in fact that
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there had been a plan, a plot, if you would like to call it this way, in order to raise macro parliament and marginalise it and prevent it from interfering with a no—deal brexit —— in order to prorogue parliament. and that that was all happening in mid—august if not earlier. it is in the power of the prime minister to prorogue parliament? absolutely, but governments must act with clean hands, governments must not mislead the public or parliament or anybody else about why they are doing something, it is central to the way the uk government operates. it is the uk government operates. it is the responsibility of ministers especially the attorney general and other ministers and the civil service to make sure the government is telling the truth at all times and is factually accurate. it is an extremely serious matter if a
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government decides to mislead the public, if it is inaccurate by inadvertence it should correct it as quickly as possible, and it certainly should not seek to conceal a motive if in fact the true motive is other than the one they are putting forward. you are well versed in what discussions would have gone on behind closed doors, they might have been an array of reasons why they are proroguing, they might have wa nted they are proroguing, they might have wanted a queen's speech, and this parliament has sat four more days in session and it could be, that both things are true, he wanted a queen's speech and it was convenient to prorogue parliament so he could create space in his negotiations with the eu? but he should not have said what he said, and furthermore there has been litigation in front of the courts where the government has a duty of candour in which they seem to have been unable to produce a short account of why they decided
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to prorogue, that raises alarm bells for me, and it seems to be part of a slide where standards of government arejust slipping away, slide where standards of government are just slipping away, and slide where standards of government arejust slipping away, and if slide where standards of government are just slipping away, and if that is the case then the uk's ability to maintain its parliamentary democracy is at risk of being undermined. i should not have had to make today's application, it should not have been necessary. i asked the minister at the dispatch box when he was winding up, could he explain why no official had been able to swear an affidavit, but there was no answer, he just avoided the question. very quickly, before i let you go, there was a motion in this —— like this in november, to get the advice that the attorney general provided to theresa may on the backstop, but the advice was not forthcoming and there was another motion brought forward in december by keir starmer. what happens if the government is not forthcoming with this operation?” trust the government will be forthcoming and i trust in the next
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48 hours... if they are not? it is a very serious matter and when parliament comes back it will be able to attend to it, but this should not be necessary and if this is what the government is planning to do, it is really serious. it amounts effectively to a revolution in our constitution affairs. when theresa may's government did not produce the advice she had from the attorney general, the conservative government was held in contempt of parliament so it is possible this government would be held in contempt if it did not not produce those documents but the difficulty is that parliament is to be prorogued this evening and so they could not bring this about until the 14th of october and it depends on what kind of information is out there. dominic cummings, there was a story out there that he did not use gmail and had encouraged the chancellor not to use it, so if these messages are on other encrypted formats digitally,
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it is difficult to think they will be —— there will be anything they could produce which would satisfy dominic ray. —— dominic grieve. could produce which would satisfy dominic ray. -- dominic grieve. what happens when parliament is prorogued, is that a ceremony? oh yes, the motion will be sent to the house of lords and a black rod will bang on the door of the comments at the clerk of the commons will say that the black rod is here and then —— on the door of the commons. they will march over to the house of lords taking any bills which still need royal assent and those bills will be read out by the clerk of the commons and they will respond by giving those bills royal assent. there will be doffing of hats and norman french will be in evidence, it is all said in norman french, and
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when that has finished the benches will be emptied and parliament will be no more, not this parliament, anyway, not until the 14th of october. i'm glad i asked, speak to you later! thank you for the moment. we will go back to the house of commons and christian throughout the evening, of course. almost everyone on both sides of the argument seems to think this will not go the way of borisjohnson. to think this will not go the way of boris johnson. let's to think this will not go the way of borisjohnson. let's look to think this will not go the way of boris johnson. let's look at what parliament was doing earlier. parliament has approved a second motion too — requiring the government to uphold the rule of law. yesterday the government said it would ‘test to the limit‘ the new law which forces borisjohnson to go back to the eu and ask for a brexit extension — if a deal isn‘t reached by october 19th. but some mps are threatening to take the prime minister to court if he flouts the law. here‘s the leader of the opposition,
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jeremy corbyn. i hope the prime minister will live up to the office he holds and accept the decisions made of this parliament and carry out the wishes of that bill, that act, to make sure that an application is made to prevent this country crashing out on the 31st of october with all the damage that will do to food supplies, medicine supplies, industrial supplies and his longer term ambitions of heading this country in a totally different direction which many many people are truly frightened. conservative mpjohn redwood is a chief proponent of brexit and a critic of the new hilary benn law. he spoke during the debate. this undermines the prime minister and more importantly it undermines our country, it makes it extremely unlikely that all those remain supporting mps who could live with our exit with a variant of the withdrawal agreement are not
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going to get that because they have deliberately undermined the pressure our prime minister may place on the european union in his negotiations he is trying to undertake. dominic raab is a former brexit secretary and now the foreign secretary. this government will always respect the rule of law. that has been our clear position consistently and frankly it is outrageous that that is even in doubt. of course, how the rule of law will be respected is normally straightforward, but sometimes it can be more complex. because there are conflicting laws or competing legal advice. we can now turn to what boris johnson has been doing today. he has been in dublin
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visiting leo varadkar. borisjohnson visited dublin earlier — and johnson said that a no deal brexit would be a failure of statecraft from both sides. there is already a deal between the uk and the eu — agreed after months of negotiations. but the uk‘s parliament keeps rejecting it. in part because many brexiteers objected to the irish border backstop. it‘s designed to ensure that there are no border checks between the republic of ireland and northern ireland in the event britain and europe can‘t agree a new trade deal. it does it by keeping the uk aligned to the eu‘s customs union — which means the uk can‘t make its own trade deals. borisjohnson wants the backstop gone, he says it‘s undemocratic, because britain can‘t get out of it unless the eu signs a trade deal. the eu is adamant it must stay. this is the irish prime minister. avoiding a return to hard border on this island, protecting our place in the single market,
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are the irish government‘s priorities in all circumstances. we must protect the peace and also the burgeoning all ireland economy. and that is why for us the backstop continues to be a critical component of the withdrawal agreement, unless and until alternatives are found. but we are open to alternatives, but they must be realistic ones, legally binding and workable, and we haven‘t received such proposals to date. another option that‘s being given serious consideration is changing the backstop so that it only applied to northern ireland. theresa may‘s version of the backstop would keep all of the uk in the eu‘s customs union to allow frictionless movement of goods. but if you look at this and just applied it to northern ireland, maybe it would have a chance of getting through the house of commons. katya adler is our europe editor. the eu have said nothing with the
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withdrawal agreement could change? nothing can change until it can change come at the eu has a ready changed something in the withdrawal agreement, it had to change the exit date which was meant to be the 29th of march stop but no longer. the eu is insisting that it can‘t change but this is not an untouchable text, isa but this is not an untouchable text, is a contract drawn up between theresa may and her cabinet at the eu, and eu leaders are not pleased there‘s a new prime minister who now wa nts a there‘s a new prime minister who now wants a brexit deal but they do want a brexiteer. that is why they are focusing on the northern ireland backstop at the moment, and this is nothing new, this was their original backstop proposal, so it already exist in written terms. if the prime minister was to go for it, they could get it written up in no time at all, it is basically ready so it could be ready for the crucial eu summit in mid—october by which time the minister has promised that he would have a renegotiated deal on the table, bingo. except not bingo
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because although the northern ireland only backstop offers things to both sides, for the eu to protect the northern ireland peace process and member state ireland and their single market, great britain would be free to make whatever trade deals it wanted after brexit and northern ireland politically would not have its relations changed at all with the uk. on the other hand theresa may said no british prime minister could sign up to this because in regulatory terms it splits northern ireland and the rest of the uk and evenif ireland and the rest of the uk and even if boris johnson ireland and the rest of the uk and even if borisjohnson can sign up to it, what about the rest of the mps? a majority would have to agree and what about scotland ? a majority would have to agree and what about scotland? would scotland not push for a special deal with the eu after brexit if northern ireland got one? this is far from straightforward which is why the eu thinks if boris johnson straightforward which is why the eu thinks if borisjohnson is serious about renegotiation he will have to ask for an extension like it or not. the other thing i want to ask about is something we talked about last
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week, the possibility of france being bad cop, being awkward on the extension and you said they might make noises but they won‘t, then we have the comments over the weekend. i have thought, but she will say that france will not do this in the end, is that what you think? that is right, that is what my eu contacts across the rest of the european union tell me. one diplomat from a northern european country said it is more french blah blah, he said. emmanuel macron said he enjoys playing bad cop when it comes to brexit and i don‘t think this will come as a surprise. before other brexit extensions france have made similar noises but they have given in. there was more reason for emmanuel macron to dig his heels in in april when he was heading to those european elections and his archrival was a french eurosceptic marine le pen but now he doesn‘t have that kind of beef. france has a
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veto, every eu leader dies on the extension, but they don‘t use their veto is willingly —— every eu leader does on the extension. if you use a veto you lose a lot of goodwill, so why would france waste their veto over something they don‘t care that much about? that is ouch over brexit but really it is no skin off the nose of emmanuel macron to extend another brexit extension for three months, and one more thing, although the eu once a deal and sees the sliver of hope of a deal for brexit, everybody is thinking about the blame game that will inevitably follow if there is a no—deal brexit and eu leaders will not want to be seen to have slammed the door in the face of the uk as long as there is the sliver of hope and that is why you are the sliver of hope and that is why you a re pretty the sliver of hope and that is why you are pretty much guaranteed if borisjohnson you are pretty much guaranteed if boris johnson holds you are pretty much guaranteed if borisjohnson holds his nose and asks for an extension of the eu leaders will grumble but say yes. one question about the eu leaders, we are approaching the end of an era with donald tusk and jean—claude
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juncker not too long in theirjob and new people coming in, those not have any impact on the position of the eu? -- have any impact on the position of the eu? —— does that have any impact. is it mainly about the big guns? the eu has been in existence for a long time and france and germany are the main paris but when it comes to brexit, ireland is absolutely key —— the main powers. that‘s another reason why france will not say no to an extension if ireland says yes because ireland got so much to lose, but also france, neighbouring the uk, stands to take it, but ireland has got the peace deal to think about and there‘s no way the other eu leaders, if ireland say they need the extension, that another eu leader would say, forget the peace deal, don‘t worry about it, we will forget about an extension, and it doesn‘t matter who is president of the european commission or the european council,
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and amongst the eu leaders themselves, i know france likes to ta ke themselves, i know france likes to take the other line in public but in private that much disagreeing and all of them want to get on with brexit and they are keen to keep the pressure on which is why the bad cop routine doesn‘t go down badly in eu circles and they want mps to decide what they do want are notjust circles and they want mps to decide what they do want are not just what they don‘t want other brexit, but i don‘t want to walk away with a no—deal brexit if they can avoid it. how is the tv version of brexit cast going? we are premiering this thursday so i hope you will be watching. i will. if thursday so i hope you will be watching. iwill. if you thursday so i hope you will be watching. i will. if you subscribe to the brexit cast podcast it is coming into the form in the next few days, a half—hour version, to add to the podcast. you can hear what our correspondence have got to say, it is brilliant. we will pause a moment and think about the broader
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political context of what we are seeing play out in the last few days. david cameron‘s decision to call the referendum in 2016, we will go back there now. one of his hopes was to end to the conservative party‘s long internal debate about europe. that‘s not really worked out. he lost the referendum, resigned as prime minister — and last week his party began to split in two. 21 conservative mps were ejected for voting against the government. others join opposition parties or became independents — and there‘s this, too. the bbc‘s political editor laura kuenssberg says 37 mps have said they‘ll stand down altogether. borisjohnson‘s own brotherjo johnson resigned from the cabinet. this weekend amber rudd did the same. here are her reasons. the conservative party at its best should be a moderate party that embraces people with
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different views of the eu. under the last prime minister, we had a lot of rebellions on eu matters. i thinkjacob rees—mogg rebelled 100 times. lots of people rebelled on her withdrawal agreement. if they hadn‘t, of course, we would have left the eu by now. and some of those are now in cabinet. i think it is disproportionately unfair to single out this group who have a different view on leaving the european union and remove the whip from them. theresa may tried to deliver brexit while keeping her party together. borisjohson and his main advisor dominic cummings want brexit above everything. the ft quoted a source in downing street saying dominic cummings would "take a chainsaw to anything" standing in his way. that is one way of putting it. take that with a pinch of salt — but no—one doubts his commitment to brexit. and it‘s turning the conservatives
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into a quite different party. all of which means it may have new allies. brexit party leader nigel farage says the party won‘t stand against anti—europe conservative mps. so might the tories work with him? here‘s the chancellor sajid javid. can you say publicly now there will be no pact, no deal, no alliance with nigel farage and the brexit party? we don‘t need an alliance with anyone. but let me also... would you rule it out? the point that you‘ve made there about, the picture i think you could say our opponents are painting of us and of course, they would paint a false picture. this was conservatives... no, we are proud centre—right, moderate, one nation party. there is nothing extremist about wanting to meet the will of the british people on a simple question which was, do you want to leave the eu or not. people want that honoured. there is nothing
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extremist about that. i'mjust i'm just asking you one question... and we are as committed to everyone in our society about healing the wounds and that is what you will see from this government. i'm asking you one question, really here, can you rule out an agreement with the brexit party, yes or no? look, we are not in an election yet. so, you can't. .. when we get there, i am clear that we don‘t need an alliance with anyone. christian... i‘ve heard talk of political realignment and more often than not it doesn‘t quite materialise, is it different this time? you have to look at what boris johnson inherited, and that was a working majority of one, and so he was left with very few options in all truth to get through the policy he put forward in the leadership contest. there are people who say the approach he has taken has backfired and that might well be, 21 rebels who lost the whip who were suspended from the party and i understand they are looking at ways of returning the
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whip, in other words bringing them back into the conservatives fold. but he was up against it in any way shape orform but he was up against it in any way shape or form to get his brexit policy through. although it has been a very chaotic few weeks you would have to ask what options did he have apart from trying to return party discipline and trying to lean on those, a significant minority in his party, who did not agree with his brexit proposal, and this is one way he has gone about it and some say it is right to return party discipline because it was so bad under theresa may, either so you are splitting the party and realigning the party closer to the brexit party and maybe that has been the main theme of the last few weeks, don‘t forget, boris johnson won a majority of conservatives mps in the leadership contest in a vast majority of the conservative membership, they want this solved and they don‘t want another extension that is what he is to go about. one more thing, this is
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a tweet from the liberal democrats quoting their leaderjo swinson. this is a new proposal to be voted on at the lib dems conference. that is pretty clear. very clear, and potentially rules out any alliance with the labour party if the liberal democrats were not to get a majority, and it would be very difficult for them to get a majority, they only have... i lose count, but maybe they are up to 16, 17? they could do very well in the south—west where they are up against the conservatives and there will be some conservative seats where remainers do not feel they can sit with the conservative party, they might pick up seats there, but this is interesting, jo swinson put
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revoking article 50 is an option to counter no deal, but now saying that they will put on their manifesto revoking article 50 in all circumstances. she will be looking to tempt some of the remain voters away from labour because the labour policy at the moment is a bit confused in the sense that they want to renegotiate the deal but many of the shadow front bench want to campaign against that, if it came to a second referendum, but this would bea a second referendum, but this would be a clear manifesto choice for the liberal democrats that they would revoke article 50 and remain in the eu. some people would be uncomfortable with the hilary benn bill, who say these mps say they wa nted bill, who say these mps say they wanted to stop no—deal brexit but their true motivation isjust stopping brexit, you must have heard that many times? we heard that from the backbenches and the conservative party, that they knew what they were about, these remainer mps, they were
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trying to string it out and help few hope the negotiation store, —— and hope the negotiation store, —— and hope the negotiation stored, and then have another referendum and win that referendum. —— stalled. but there are many conservatives within there are many conservatives within the party as well who fear the consequences of a no—deal brexit and we might see the details of what that would mean for the uk economy if they are good to their word and they publish the details around the yellowhammer documents, which because they are obliged to do after the motion published this evening. we will be back with you i‘m sure because in the next few minutes we think prime minister borisjohnson will speak... there is the live feed from the house of commons, looking low— key from the house of commons, looking low—key but it will start to fill up. it would be the last vote for a number of weeks, a vote on whether the prime minister

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