tv Whatd You Miss Bloomberg March 18, 2016 4:00pm-5:01pm EDT
alix: u.s. stocks closing higher today. 2016,p recent losses for with the worst start ever to a year. but the question is, what did you miss. the job is challenged in court. our guest says the riyal is overvalued. scarlet: and white protections on the emerging political cycle does not make economic free-trade. >> consumer confidence funds -- fall to a five-month low. we have charts you must not miss. scarlet: we begin with the market minutes. you mentioned the s&p turning positive for the year. joining the dow jones industrial average. we had the highest levels of the year, a recent declines. six out of 10 industry groups within the index climbed with health care leading the advance.
>> these numbers are pretty amazing. a $.5 trillion added to stocks value around the world in the month of march alone. we did not see just a huge amount of movement in u.s. stocks, but to your point it was really in emerging markets that saw a lot of moving happening today. the emerging market index is right above the 200 day moving average, and that means two things. a longer term trend line, and double market your it turkey, leading the way. scarlet: we saw a pickup in volume because of the quadruple witching hour. >> everything is higher, everything is increasing. alix: there is one other thing rallying, and that is bonds. we have seen the treasury, the 10 year continue up, up, up, and the yield gets slower. digging of the yield, we have to talk about the 10 year japanese government bond yield reaching a
record low earlier today, which is pretty amazing. scarlet: there it is. >> a lot of people thought it would not get much lower, but there is. scarlet: in currency, the dollar has rebounded from the eight-month low. it had gotten as low as 2% the previous two days. that after the fed showed to rate hikes this year instead of four originally signaled, bringing a closer to what the market consensus is. >> and commodities, coffee going into a bull market today. we related to currencies as the riyal strengthened. brazil's
export ability of copy was weekend. -- coffee was weekend. $40 per barrel, one rig was added last week. it goes to show there is a response when it comes to the oil rally. you do see it reflected in the u.s. market. alix: i guess the question is whether everyone serves to added
rigs and we have prices coming down again. >> we've got to stay alive. scarlet: celestica deep dive into the bloomberg. a quick note, you can find all of them in the function at the bottom of your screen. >> we talked about the emerging bull market. here is why. i looking at the emerging market index versus the euro and the dollar to coincide. so this is a historical spread between the two. itthe euro gets a bigger, as actually strengthened, the dollar falls, energy -- emerging markets rally. as we look at
the historical spread, there is negative correlation, when you are seeing right there, between of lowered euro, stronger dollar. this correlation inching into positive territory, meaning there is a positive correlation between a stronger euro and a weaker dollar and emerging markets. this is a fancy way of saying a weaker dollar is better for you
emerging market stocks. market, and so a bull another weight around that up. speaking of a dollar, a dollar to again is what i am looking at. -- to yen is what i am looking at. yen white line shows the appreciated in value. when i want to compare it to is the nikkei 225, the japanese stock benchmark. we have negative interest rates and the fed widening back expectations for a rate hike, it appears that yen has rallied in strength. they are looking for yen to strengthen to 103, with a yellow arrow is by the year and. that is versus the previous estimate of 110. about 1000 points up. -- oh, we are manipulating the chart. .000 points lower the last support was at 103. >> i that the boj is keeping a
close eye on that one. speaking of the boj and all things japan, i am going to go back to the 10 year japanese government bond to take a look at this chart. it shows the yield on the pgp. you can see the green line here is something called the yen basis swap. it has been tracking the yield. what is happening here is that even though the 10 year yield is really low and negative, investors can swap currencies or swap interest rates in different currencies and get it positive yield on jgb. this is one reason we are seeing the rally. i want to mention as well, we have the overnight call rate, which is the deposit rate set by the to boj. we are below that rate now, which means japan is now the proud owner of an inverted yield curve. alix: that is an amazing charge. -- chart.
>> we are in such new territory with negative rates in ultra low yields, and the old testament about does this any mean about recession, nobody knows. alix: thank you. you can see all of these charts and more on twitter. i want to bring in the guest bloomberg news reporter all of a running, who has been following all of it action. oliver. good afternoon, one of your chart is on client flows, and it shows companies are a big drivers year for s&p prices. what are other sources of demand? reporter: this is a continuation of a pattern may have seen this year. this is from bank of america clients this comes out weekly. the essentially show what is going on both on the investors spectrum and the sectors. but let's start first with who is looking at buying by their flows. this is basically hedge funds,
institutions, private clients, and corporations. all the investors that you is this with bank of america. including the net number, the only one is positive is corporations going and buying their own shares areas buybacks are a big part of it. last week, the flow from the other types of investors, hedge funds, institutional investors and refund, has been huge. they said it was the second-biggest net outflow or net selling of stocks from institutions they have had since compiling this data. so you have this huge dichotomy between what is happening with the demand perspective on the equities equation where you have companies who are the only ones liquidating the stocks -- lifting the stocks. and we have the other chart that shows where people have been -- i picked the first top-five, where these flow in. the only one positive last week was materials. what is interesting, think about
the rally. it is not going to be energy companies, it is industrials and materials. there was a short coming early on, but now we are past it. corporations are the only ones signaling they want to own these stocks. scarlet: we should mention that j.p. morgan and income america -- bank of america, they announced a buybacks. alix: this was really interesting because we have been talking about the fragility of the rally since early march, but now it has gained such a pace. we still think it is fragile based on indicators you just pointed out? fragile. i think it is i was talking to j.p. morgan today, and the strategist i keep in touch with. he is positive stocks. he says i think we have room to go from here. you still say look, it is not built on fundamentals. picture frome in
the economic front, it has not been a change from the company front. we have not had earnings. we are in between seasons right now. the buyback, short recovery a couple of weeks ago. when you look at the economic picture, there is no reason to say that is driving all 12% of the gains we are seeing in stocks right now. scarlet: and you had great chart of the s&p versus the snp forecast for strategist. as we rally, forecasters are rolling over this. reporter: it is really incredible. you guys are still bullish over all, but we have slightly more than 5% increase. you can see what is circled. before we started rebounding here, they were taking down their estimates. falling, this is getting out of hand quickly. i need to pull done my estimates. even with the stages of rallies, we have seen s&p cuts, morgan stanley lowering the target estimate. we'll have a lot of hesitation
on what their exit buying and what they see with projections as well. the big wild card the fed and its decision this week and the unexpectedly dovish statement we saw? doesn't that change the game for risk assets? reporter: for a long time it did. we are running into a period where people are starting to question the efficacy of quantitative easing and easy monetary policy around the world. ecb is negative, japan is already there all the way up to the 10 year. you look at those markets that have not been working out the way they planned. no,ink the argument is needs to go better. it is not the situation. then you look at the fed going in the opposite direction. even though it is less than we thought, a couple hikes instead of four, i think this was enough -- i don't think it will be enough to really take us up to the next level. that is what strategists are saying very at the moves on days were the fed is dovish, it
helps, it helps folks that like that kind of easy policy and the stocks,mium to state on but ultimately what happens the more goes on, investigators -- investors will move on it. and the ecb been pretty dramatic, you did not see much enormous risk at sustainable risk rallies. >> central banks are no longer causing -- alix: they are smacked up areas. .carlet: finally, mutual points they are the cheapest in a decade. reporter: this flew under the radar last week. it is interesting because as we have seen a lot of hedge funds over the past year run into some trouble, i will branch this out onto something more than it is. basically we have had a lot of , full fitness key have pulled their doors. more active investors involving in etf's, making it difficult to invest in.
is a very popular products. people will come under the region. it is sort of an interesting trend. ici pointed out, for whatever quality you may have in investing, it is making investing in mutual funds and stock funds cheaper because they are easier to maintain, bring down prices, and if you are in active management funds, you have to see the fact that fees are getting lower everywhere. investing in mutual funds, stocks and mutual funds, bonds, they are all cheapest as they are 20 years. scarlet: good stuff. all of a running of bloomberg news. now we have picking up steam as protests increase in brazil. political drama is affecting the economy and market. ♪
♪ crumpton, let's go to first word news. after an intense four-month manhunt across europe and beyond, police of captured atop putative in the paris attacks in the same muslim neighborhood where he grew up -- police have captured a top fugitive from the paris attacks in the same muslim neighborhood where he grew up. two explosions also occurred after authorities with riot shields cordoned off the.. brussels, one of the attackers who killed 130 people at a rock concert in national stadium and cafes in there is on the river 13. a federal judge has suspended an injunction the blocked president deal marissa's appointment of fermenter, former president
louise da silva as chief of staff. she will now take office for the ruling and still be overturned by the federal appeals court in rio de janeiro. leaves for cuba sunday. he will have a meeting with president castro and will hold discussions with dissidents. he will also attend a baseball game between the u.s. and come even -- and cuban national teams. astronauts and cosmonauts are headed to the international space station. they will ride also use rocket that endedace a crew up your long stay. alix: the latest turn in the political drama in brazil. the brazilian judge it is suspending an injection that blocks the president her appointment of her mentor, former president lula as her chief of staff. the really can still be overturned. move by the president has been met by protest with
brazilian lawmakers and citizens. scarlet: brazilian stocks entered a bull in your -- market. there'll be a change in government. the is perspective is global fx strategy at rbc capital markets. he joins us from london. riyal is 8% the overvalued. how did you come up with that? >> one of the things in brazil is that there has been a significant decline investment and productivity as the policies of the admonition has taken over the years. this is really the main reason the cost is so overvalued. and inflation is very high. they still have inflation over 100%. alix: to talk about the rally in the riyal. what about you seeing? >> the underlying factor, if you have a change in regime, then clearly you are going to see a
very significant improvement in investment spending going forward. all models do not detect those changes in regime. the market you are seeing here is a higher probability to keep falling within the next few weeks. scarlet: but you don't see that happening. you say the only way for brazil to get out of this mess is by higher inflation to lower real yield, and that means a weaker riyal. >> correct. you think that even if there was to be a change in the regime, to fallriyal were tomorrow, you still have a debt struggle you need to solve, which keeps inflation quite high. as a result, if the currency does not weaken, we could see a steel over with the account deficit increasing back again. alix: but we have seen is that the market is actually pricing out higher inflation. we have a chart from danny that shows that. the 20-20 fiven
plane. it is the top line there. the eight year even. the 10 year break even is also falling. 22 fawn -- 2022 bonds also falling. you can't see any pickup in inflation from here. scarlet: very interesting shift in town from investors. regime change a side, which is what everyone seems to be counting on, what are fundamental reasons to go along on brazilian aspects? >> it is a very large economy that has been mismanaged for 14 years, and again, if things were to change, you do have a very large resourceful economy that for aen under invested long, long time. that is changing and resource location could be the upside for investors. alix: i want to go back to the currency issue for a second. the whole idea of currency wars
was point by the brazilian finance minister back in 2010. it seems like over the past week we have seen a bit of a detente in the currency devaluation war. we saw the ecb and boj not weakening their currencies. you recommend that this is the answer for brazil. >> yes, it all depends on what is the endgame for brazil. we have an environment where a company that was worth 20 times what it is today is basically a situation of low investment, a cash flow problem over the next few years there he and this is only one example. we have more going on in brazil as a result of corruption charges we have seen. once those are corrected, we are going to see a change in that, and as a result of the country can start growing again. this could take quite some time.
alix: we haven't seen that happened yet. 25 percent of investors are actually foreigners. if we don't see the kind of progressive action that you are calling for, what kind of the loft white greasy and socks -- what kind of selloff might we see and socks? >> it has already been announced a renewal of loans to begin to local governments as part of the sweeteners to keep the support in the government and the cabinet. this goes back to the same of distorted resource allocation and brazil. i'm worried we might see them going back to lowe's. alix: and final question, we are talking about brazil as if it is isolated. what kind of value does brazil offer when you compare with other commodity currencies or em currencies? a great question. in brazil, if there was to be a
change in regime, ahead of many other countries that do need also regime changes, like south africa is the best example out there. investors will be searching for those markets for the next ones. i would be looking for markets that there is room or there is upside if there was to be regime change and search for them. out that itld point brazilian stocks go back to january lows, that is a 35% decline, so definitely a lot of risk. china smog problem. but it has to do with this picture. ♪
facebook, running in beijing and blowing up the internet because of the gray sky and the smog out there. a lot of people commenting on why he wasn't wearing a facemask. also the political implications and the significance of him running through tenement square. enmen square. line, the more pollutants in the air. i have color-coded it. anything after the green bands in the bottom, pollution is good or air quality is good. anything in yellow is unhealthy. red is very unhealthy, and magenta at the top is hazardous. we have hazardous earlier this month in march. we also have very unhealthy a couple of days ago. >> this is one of the most depressing charts on the bloomberg. the other i can think of more worrisome than this is the dog kill index. alix: yes.
i don't know who decided to put that one on there. >> the number of animals that died during air travel. chartooking at a perfect from a quarry that shows the recent rally be of seen in metal a disaster going forward. this is global alumina production. the first dotted line is the shanghai price. the other one is the premium. all of the production low the first dotted line is making money right now. reductionlion tons of -- production is making money last year. 45% was not making. the rebel you see in the chart has been shutting in a lot of -- purple you see in the chart has been shutting in a lot of china. now they are making money on the restart, what they add to the huge surplus they already have on the market, capping any rally and exacerbating any kind of oversupply issue. alix: this is a whole vicious
cycle in commodities. all right, i want to talk about valeant, one of my favorite stories of the week. we have them in top with vendors to what they will demand in exchange for waving a default. we know they have been exchanging -- struggling with that issue. we have the price of one valeant 2022.oan in the red line, it has been increasing, which you might not expect. 'se thinking is that valeant loans could work out quite well in recovery process. we are seeing distinguished in the stock prices. scarlet: a lot of people are talking about the bond prices. >> bond has not changed not that much. you are seeing the change over the structure. scarlet: we take a look into how
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follow every pitch, every play and every win. change the way you experience tv with x1 from xfinity. ♪ mark: let's get to first word news. after four months at large the main fugitive from the deadly terror attacks in paris in november is in custody. the deputy mayor said he was shot in the leg and detained by police. otherities have two suspects in custody. he was among several attackers who police say targeted cafes, a rock concert, and a stadium in paris in the deadly attacks which took place in november. angela merkellor said the deal that close between the eu and turkey to slow down
the flow of refugees to greece will hit smugglers hard. chancellor merkel said it sends a clear message that would be refugees planning on coming to europe [indiscernible] illegallyhe crossing began sunday. the u.s. is calling for the meeting of the un security council did his best to discuss north korea's latest blistered mitchell -- ballistic missile launch. it fired a missile into the sea. calling on the cat -- counsel to r sanctions.o two law enforcement officials say the letter contained a white powder but preliminary tests indicated it was not hazardous. it was boat smart -- postmarked
trump'sand referenced presidential build -- bid. manning was on hand for the announcement in indianapolis. his first nfl home. last month he announced his retirement in denver after leading the broncos to victory in super bowl 50. global news 24 hours a day powered by our 2400 journalists in more than 150 news bureaus around the world. i am mark emden. -- crumpton. emerging markets, their stocks have risen 20% from their low in january which was a six into a half year low. this is the emmy -- msci index.g-markets this is after the fed signaled only two rate increases instead of the four have projected.
leading investors to take on risky assets. alix: lower dollar, you will have that rally and risk assets means a lot more money into emerging markets and that encapsulates what we saw this week. what'd you miss? the battle for her soul. fisher is worried about rising inflation. writing this would mark an undesirable reason inflation which would require a relatively abrupt policy tightening. they should keep the expansion on a sustainable track. aboutt: he is not worried not enough inflation. expectations may have
edged lower. we should be cautious in assessing that a tightening labor market would move inflation back to 2%. you totally called this. how did brainerd win over young versus fisher? started to warn, wait a second. i am not sure that we can raise interest rates at this pace and that looks fairly prophetic. i the time we get first quarter. the aspectddered at of for interest rate hikes and that was a critical factor in swaying the committee to janet yellen -- to brainerd's point of view. the fed isevidence keeping an eye on financial markets and what is going on around the world in terms of volatility? >> that is one of the conclusions and it is impossible
to avoid. there is too much feedback between the policies and what happens the rest of the world. to ignore the issues of the dollar in global financial stability. aat we're seeing here is continuation of the process where the fed is acknowledging those external risks and recognizing it is hard to break away from the rest of the world when the rest of the world is living toward zero interest rates. into --rd is putting the expectations. how reliable do those inflation expectation measures play out to be? that is a fantastic question, one that the federal reserve is struggling with. the survey measures have drifted downward. the michigan numbers were stronger today. then there's the question of how the do they read into market based measures of market expectations or inflation compensation.
there is enormous amounts of uncertainty of what is going on with inflation expectations but by most measures they have been on the soft side. that resonates with federal reserve officials. if you have to think about where the balance of risks lie it does not try with the factors that would normally be associated with rising inflation expectations. >> they have been taking up ever so slightly recently. we saw yellen look through the servant -- survey-based measures. tos that give an insight as how she feels? >> she pays attention to them but she is also skeptical of the degree of information they contain. thehis is an issue where fed is going to search through something that is hard to measure. it has been so long since inflation has overshot consensus.
what happens when inflation goes down what we expected? for the federal reserve is that we start to make to make decisions on the basis of higher expectations of inflation. generally when we see that higher inflation we are concerned the economy is increasingly random in the sense that returns for one sect him -- the sector are relatively higher than returns for the other sector. >> we have a function at the terminal that looks at them. you can see how the whole world is falling short. the actual target versus where we are at. and in reality, you only really seeing australia may be kind of close to that to present level. scarlet: that is a good point.
2% becoming the global benchmark. when oil was stable before began its historic collapse, how reliable was inflation expectations as an indicator? are talking what we about. there has been some concerns that measures of inflation expectations that we use such as the market based measures are not telling us that much about inflation five years from now. they're telling us something about a modem the markets that as one thaterpreted is inflationary or recessionary or deflationary. i'm not sure again the fed has that much faith in the exact numbers that are coming out of those market-based measures. brainerd won this round. issue going to be victorious for the foreseeable future or is and other hawks going to stage a comeback?
>> this is looking into the back half of this year. the important question is, how fed -- how dovish does the remain even as the economy adds jobs at a fairly rapid pace. even as inflation is going to take up from here. i think the answer is the fed is going to be fairly tolerant going forward. there is a lot of uncertainty about the downside risks to raising interest rates. the fed is looking at the global environment. when we try to raise interest significant feedback effects. what may have been 100 basis points of easing -- tightening in the old model now it should be 50 basis points but how well brainerd can keep the fed on that path versus the concern that i will see stronger data later on is the key issue for the second half of this year and
it relates to how much is janet yellen going to tolerate overshooting of the inflation target. alix: is there going to be and -- a battleground, economic indicator in the back half of the year? >> what it would be is some common nation of wages and actual inflation data. there would be sufficient to suggest that we are reaching full of florida might consider that inflation be an issue. the fed has been clear that inflation will weigh heavily in their decision. looking in the back half of this year what does happen to inflation assuming the economy stays on track. we have to get through the april meeting and the june meeting first. what is the hawkish message we will get from the fed in this meeting? >> most hawkish is a signal that jim would be on the table.
au would have to look toward , that the fedks was willing to assess more directly. the balance of risk is turning into a test of whether they are ready to raise rates the next meeting. at a minimum the most hawkish thing we will see in august is the balance of risks return and the fed and the risks are balanced and they put june on the radar. still -- it is not really a clear call. one idea is they do june and december and another idea is they do september and december. the issue of june is i am not sure we have enough data to confirm the fed is ready to move. alix: thank you for your time. donald trump and other
premium beans favored by us and starbucks. the company is keeping the character limit at 140. current limit is a constraint that allows for upward movement. twitter was considering raising the limit earlier this year. that is a bloomberg business flash. alix: protectionism is becoming a huge theme. donald trump wants to raise taxes on chinese imports by 40%. even hillary clinton is backing way from the transpacific partnership. what is it about the economic environment that is making protectionism so popular? let's ask our guest. he worked on multiple trade deals under president clinton. thanks for joining us. why protectionism is so hot right now.
guess: it is so hot right now because people have lost trust in the government and the economy. and those who governed it could redistribute the gains from free trade to make them win-win. whenever you have a trade deal, whenever you have a cut in tariffs, some people will get jobs and some people will lose job. a whole bunch more people will get to buy cheaper products and hope is that there will be enough adjustments and enough economic growth, then when the dust settles, everyone or almost everyone has managed to get ahead and was out -- as a result. the confidence that will be the case has been lost over the past 30 years. proponentsid overcome that hurdle and convince people that on the whole, society and the economy will be better off? >> that is very interesting. they have a very hard roto deas
-- because it is difficult to argue that the furniture manufacturers of the carolinas or the manufacturing cities of them it -- the midwest benefit from nafta as much as the rest of the country benefits from more and better mexican vegetables and fruits and ability to import manufactured products. scarlet: if a politician could be honest and realistic about trade rather than simply taking cheap shots and looking for soundbites, what should he or she say to voters? >> that we as a whole are going to benefit from freer trade if we do our business of properly making sure that the economy remains dynamic and rapidly growing enough that those who are going to close this year from whatever happens in the economy are going to gain from economic policy next year or the year after or 10 years down the pike.
so that even if you might lose this year as a result of the transpacific partnership, the government is going to do other things that that makes possible that will put you ahead in a decade. interview, tom donahue's -- talked about the proposed tariffs. they would probably impeach donald trump when they figured out what that really meant. that is overstatement. i am try to make it very clear, if you double the price of something we are buying from , the citizens to go to walmart and target and go to and people that buy components, they are going to pay for this. alix: what is the downside of
protectionism for the economy, u.s. and global? >> the downside to imposing a 50% tariff on imports from china is that your average american suddenly has to pay 500 bucks more for the stuff they are going today. and that 500 bucks a year more for every item -- every average american is a major downer. we benefit from the apple ii put those parts of manufacturing that require a lot of cheap labor for assembly and that americans are by and large no longer very interested in doing overseas in places where people are very, very interested in doing and in making up the money by selling what we do best to china. thank you so much for joining us today. university of michigan survey showed a drop in
alix: consumer confidence declined in the first half of march as lower income americans grew more concerned about prospects for the u.s. it -- economy. mammals are has been digging through the report and found three charts outside the headline number. we are talking about american steel's financial situation. up and weex has gone found some negatives and vice versa. this month was definitely the opposite where there is some very positive numbers underlying the report. one of them is the percentage of people who feel like they are in
a better financial situation now than they were a year ago. based on higher income. and so this matched a post-crisis high this month which was made in february 2015 as well which is when the overall index topped. in terms of financial situation and how you feel about your situation based on higher income , we have fully recovered over the last year so that is a good sign. it should support spending. like agest looks 35-54. that is gen x expecting income games -- gains. increasede expecting income gains in the coming year. you can see my this chart that the 18 to 34-year-old segment is recovered to levels where he was before the crisis and this 35 to 54 segment, what we have been
waiting for to accelerate, they see the highest income over the next year in the last eight or nine years so that is a really good sign. one other thing you pulled for us has to do with u.s. car sales which sounds really boring to me because i am a terrible millennium -- paul o'neill who does not drive or own a car. it says something interesting about the effects of low interest rates. matt: car sales have been one of the key things underpinning consumer spending in the cycle. it has been interesting to look at why are people saying it is a good time to buy a car and the university of michigan survey asked this question and if you compare it to 10 years ago when we were at the last peak of the auto market you can see that now low interest rates have become a much larger part of the decision to buy cars. that goes to show you that the fed's easing money policy is
supporting things that hopefully that continues to be the case. it does not seem like they will be raising interest rates anytime soon so hopefully that continues. scarlet: one thing that might get folded in that question, when you lease a car it is counted as a sale. it is not the same thing as buying a car in terms of payments. the leasing structures different than actually buying a car. matt: in 2006 when we go back to that chart it shows you that and 26 -- 2000 six people were buying cars because they were cheap and now it is because interest rates are low. if you think of the whole thing, the whole decision to buy a car based on the price of the car in the financing it is the same thing. scarlet: we're thinking monthly payments. alix: thank you. what you need to know for next week. ♪
don't miss this. the china develop and form is this week in beijing. it has been called the chinese davos. don't miss this earlier -- later in the week. the ferry meeting was down 8.8%. -- february meeting was down 8.8%. and one more thing. it is a big one. it is revised fourth-quarter u.s. gdp coming out on friday which is good friday. markets are closed. someone is always awake.
mark: with all due respect to the pope, baby he will read the comments. maybe he will read the comments. ♪ good evening, earthlings. i am here in selleck city where anholdingmp and event. ted cruz is spending the day in arizona. he is holding two events including one at the u.s.-mexico border. this is the first day that the surviving trio