tv Bloomberg Markets Middle East Bloomberg May 9, 2016 12:00am-1:01am EDT
♪ ♪ manus: foil arises -- oil rises. saudi arabia says it will maintain near-record output and any freeze must include iran. rishaad: middle eastern governments are stepping back from remaining reserves by reopening access to bond markets. manus: and a glimmer of hope for india's rural economy. forecasters say the monsoon should be above normal this
year. it is 8:00 a.m. across the emirates, 5:00 in london. i am manus cranny in dubai. salamat inam rishaad hong kong. welcome to "bloomberg markets middle east." manus: no-show would be complete without the news over the they have decided to change directions a little bit in what is happening to the oil markets. that's pretty much where we will kick off "bloomberg markets middle east." put it in context for you. what happens? a number of factors in play in deciding production. saudi arabian oil production is trending higher. will they go for more, as we go towards the next opec meeting? hale producers are rising, but it is on leverage and not
profit. brent crude is rising. traders are cutting net long positions and short bets are rising. net long positions are dropping over 4%. re: at an inflection -- are we at an inflection point in oil markets? rishaad: there are so many unknowns here. what happens? we are not seeing any freeze in production. suddenly iran does not want to play ball here. they are just one element amongst many things which could oilupporting a lower prices moving head. we have problems with the shale oil fields in canada, on fire at the moment, one million barrels a day in production being lost. and libya not able to export oil. what about iraq? can they ramp up production? there could be more supply coming on board. let's look at what's happening, with about 20 minutes of trading
in mumbai. this is the situation right now. x, one of the first gains in seven sessions. in hong kong a 0.5% moved to the upsidfe. dubai coming online at 10:00 a.m. local time. dubai, abu dhabi, doha, with the watar market -- qatar market on the way down. manus: thank you. let's check in on other stories making headlines around the world. shery ahn is with us this morning. aramco is planning a listing in london, new york, and hong kong. they are hoping exxon mobil, sinopec, and bp will take strategic stakes.
that would turn the world's biggest oil exporter into the largest public we traded company, with a valuation that could reach $2.5 trillion. in touch withet bondholders to explain why they failed to make an interest payment last month. the malaysian state oil company has -- will have a call scheduled to him take place on may 23. defaulted on a $1.75 billion bond last month after a dispute with a co-guarantor. the greek government says it has enough support among lawmakers to approve pension and income tax reforms as part of a $6.2 billion package to secure further aid from the imf. parliament debated the issue that day before -- the day before eu funded ministers will review status of the bailout. they will consider whether to
release the second installment of the $98 billion rescue package after a six-month delay. the outgoing philippine president benigno aquino cast his vote in six sessions his successor and for national and local lawmakers. more than 50 million people are eligible to cast ballots. the presidential favorite is the city mayor, with recent polls giving him 33% of the vote. powered by 2400 journalists in 150 bureaus around the world, this is bloomberg news. i am shery ahn. rishaad: wildfires raging through canada's oilsands region , shutting down an estimated $1 million of -- one million barrels of production a day. joining us from alberta -- rebecca, how quickly will these companies get production back up , and where are we with these fires right now?
rebecca: it's interesting, because today even as companies including suncor and conoco phillips were shutting down production, they were talking about getting it back up again. the massive fire that has extended to double the size of new york city in northern alberta continues to spread, but it is moving east, away from the oilsands facilities, which is giving them some comfort they can start the process of getting production back online. today, with mckenzie they were saying it could be about a week before they get things back up. it could take a wild longer to get production back up to full capacity, but about a week from when the immediate risk subsides. rishaad: some workers in the oilsands have lost their homes. entire neighborhoods in fort mcmurray were incinerated. what are you hearing from these people, and will they return and rebuild?
rebecca: it is quite amazing, the result of this community. it is a very tightknit community, and most people are involved in oil and gas, connected in some way. extremely well to. people from around the world. i was interviewing a lot of them south of fort mcmurray, who escaped the fires earlier this week, and all most everyone said they will go back and rebuild if their home burned down. there is another element to it, in that oil prices have fallen and some of these people are unemployed, without work, so some will not go back. it resoundingly i am hearing for the most part they intend to rebuild. let's talk about the fire itself. have officials worked out what started it? rebecca: they do now believe , it was as caused by human cause, but they are not elaborating on why. beyond that, alberta has been suffering from very dry
conditions heading into what is normally a wildfire season. fort mcmurray and the oilsands ,re surrounded by boreal forest and every year we see wildfires. a combination of el niño, lower rainfall, and some would say, , inge also added to what issue that may have started with throught spread tinder-dry conditions. rishaad: rebecca, thanks very much. rebecca penty, live from edmonton. manus: saudi arabia is expected to keep pumping crude at near-record levels. the new oil minister will maintain policy. with ourcuss the guest, robert mills, who joins us in the studio. we have the word "continuity" established early. my question is, the upcoming -faliheetings, will al
drive a harder bargain? has taken a much more prominent media role in defending this policy, being clear that the saudis would not cut production, and if there was a deal on production, a freeze of production, it would have to include iran. vocal in defending the line of the prince. manus: market share is a parody and iran needs to get on board, he has made it clear. is there a question of accepting a mid-first quarter production level for iran, is that the stumping block? robin: iran is coming back after sanctions, so the iranians say not unreasonably, well, we cannot freeze productions at the sanction level because we are not under sanction ourselves, so we need to see iran get back to a sustainable level, whatever that is, and that is probably later this year, third quarter or fourth quarter, we will know
if iran is at a sustainable level, and then they can have a level they can talk about freezing from. rishaad: robin, the thing is here, what do we, do we expect any change in policy? as you have been alluding to, no change in the idea of a freeze that iran must be included in, but will we see any change of direction after 20 years of having ali al-naimi? robin: not so much a change of direction, but a change of emphasis. we saw the opec meeting in doha iast month, and ali al-naim thought he was close to a deal on freezing production that did not clued iran, and they decided at the last moment to change position. falih said that will be the direction from now on, definitely sticking to this line, a line they were already sticking to much more clearly. manus: robin, in the best bloomberg style, we have a chart
for you. this is fair value. it says you will get oil transcending all these issues, breaking above the $50 mark, up to $62 by 2023. where are we at the moment -- do you believe this rally? is it a sustainable rally? what needs to happen to keep it there and break higher? robin: we have seen a strong rally already this year, driven partly by the opec talk about the freezing, but more by lossning production, with of in canada with the fires we have seen, losing production from nigeria, from iraq, which has been supportive to the market. u.s. oil production is falling, and at some places prices have to go higher to encourage u.s. production to come back, or at least not false on much, and to rebound later this year. manus: the question is when we
balance. stay with us, robin, qamar energy's robin mills. rishaad: i will get some action of what is going on market-wise. a mixed bag. japan is having a better time of it. picture bit of a mixed to start the trading week here in asia. we are seeing good gains on the 0.7%, with the weaker yen helping sentiment. we were also boosted by the from wall street on friday, the weaker than expected nonfarm payroll numbers, boosting expectations we will not see another left off in june from the fed. likely moving out to september. in hong kong we are seeing good gains after a terrible week last week for hong kong equities. the hang seng is up 0.5%, with five sessions in a row of losses. you can look at some gains we're seeing here, but also a lot of
those energy producers. talking about oil all morning on this program, but we have been seeing a lot of those energy producers moving higher in hong kong as well. here is where things start to get a little interesting, though. the trade data out of china over the weekend has really put a downward pressure on sentiment in shanghai. so actually holding at a seven-we glow. korea is also -- seven-week low. korea is also trading down, as is new zealand. pretty mixed around southeast asia. having a quick look at some of the other things we are watching. we have been talking about oil all morning, but i want to show you what the japanese yen is doing as well, because that weakness in the yen is really what is driving the sentiment in japan. rishaad: thanks, juliette. more on that and all our news at
the new digital destination tailor-made for the middle east, with reports and market data region. and all of our reports and special content available only online. manus: coming up later in the hour, voting continues in the philippines, where more than 50 million people are choosing a new president. we will cross live to our correspondent in manila a little later. next, a reprieve for oilsands facilities in canada. more from our guest robin mills when we return. this is "bloomberg markets middle east." ♪
cabinet, ending the worst week for gulf stocks in two months. is markets finally see saudi making a move to reduce dependence on oil. bute had a lot of rhetoric, it certainly appears investors are judging this to be a turning point of sorts, giving much needed optimism when it comes to saudi arabia and stocks. they ended the longest losing streak since march. have a look at this function, bcg200 to bring up this chart. the top 200 equities in the market value.n in terms of the top gainers, saudi electricity, saudi basic p, the biggest gainers in the session. ising as much as 1.2% in the
session. let's see if we can bring up that chart for you. we did also see strong gains regionally. in terms of the tadawul session we lost some momentum, closing 0.8% higher, but a second session of gains. 112 stocks closing higher. you can see why investors are feeling happier about the session in terms of this turning point, in terms of really putting the money where their mouth is in terms of the blueprint, that saudi arabia appears to be walking the walk, not just talking the talk when it comes to reducing dependence on crude. this next chart really shows how much saudi stocks correlate with oil. it is very obvious. the white line here is the l index index -- tadaqu index and the blue
line is brent crude. new oils saying the minister will likely cause them to tap more into other mineral resources, not just oil. haidi, thanks for a much indeed for that. haidi lun there. manus: still with us here in the energy ceoo is qamar robin mills. you are watching that and we were chatting about correlation between oil and stocks. it is inextricable at the moment. you can't break it. robin: this is the challenge could we had the prince saying they need to break that link, so you don't see the saudi economy completely dependent on what is going on in the oil market. manus: integral to that piece on the chessboard is the ipo of aramco. you talk to many companies in the gulf region. what is the most pressing issue,
when they re-envision 2030, when they hear from the crown prince. what is the most pressing issue? robin: they are all concerned about what this means for the saudi economy. simply, is it going to work? because the saudi economy is the biggest in the region, and affects everything else, all of its neighbors, the oil markets as well. ofus: there is a level fiscal constraint here. we saw a blue dobby pullback and -- abu dhabi pull back and now the saudis are pulling back. past, in the diversification was largely about putting oil money into new projects, and now they say they have to have other sources of financing for the project i have new growth that is driving itself and driving foreign investment. manus: when we look at the plan, when we look at vision 2030, where is the biggest opportunity
as you sift through the news that keeps coming in waves and waves? is it the execution by the saudi s? are they going to come as it were, spread the good news around, spread the goodwill around in terms of reaching it international companies coming into saudi in terms of military spending, in terms of the actual program? robin: it's a great opportunity for the saudis' neighbors to get involved in the program, and for international companies as well. bey the based in the -- will based in the uae. for me it is really about the diversification process, non-oil companies to get established. we hear noise about the ipo of story, butcinating maybe not so relevant for the small investor. but a critical strategic move. if you said that a year ago you
would be booted out of riyadh, and now it is part of the plan. manus: robin, thank you for your insight and context. robin mills, ceo at qamar energy. a glimmer of hope for india after back-to-back damaging droughts. the forecast for the monsoon and fect on the economy is next. this is "bloomberg markets middle east." ♪
india has been suffering from back-to-back droughts for the last couple years. the situation is so grim in maharashtra, no incomes, no debt have been e forcing farmers to commit suicide. but this is a glimmer of hope, with average rainfall expected to be the highest since 1994. if that happens, it could provide much-needed relief. more importantly, this is significant for two reasons. 70% of indians depend on agriculture for sustenance, and more importantly the timeframe between june and september, the first phase of the monsoon, ir rigates nearly half of india's farmland. so if this forecast translates to reality, it would provide a lot of succor for the large farm land of india. rishaad: the thing is here. it
is really all about firing up a huge engine of the indian economy, which has been kind of idling, hasn't it? how does it affect india's projections for growth, and inflation? two important consequences to this. if indeed india has a good monsoon, which is widely expected, that will help both demand and supply. side, good crops means good income for the farmers, meaning higher disposable income and health for the economy. on the supply side, india has been facing extraordinary high inflation that has gradually come down, but you do expect if theon to be tamed supply-side situation improves. on the overall headline gdp number, the survey done by bloomberg, 32 economists on the
median expect gdp to grow 7.75%. the finance minister said he expects india to grow 8.5%. but take all i say with a pinch of salt. this is just a forecast at this point in time. as i am standing today in mumbai, it is sweltering hot outside and there is no sign of rainfall yet. rishaad: it is a bit early for the monsoon. in aoes a good monsoon perverse way not help india? because it masks all these problems of infrastructure, the amount of food actually wasted in the country? a: you have no choice but to look at that, don't you? this is a classic problem india faces every year. large parts of india's population looks up to the rain gods because of the complete absence of policy response from the government, consistently
aiding reserves by opening the door to bond markets. manus: drought-ravaged india welcomes a forecast for better-than-average monsoons. rishaad: we have an hour and a half to go before markets -- we have just half an hour before markets resume. 12:30 in hong kong. manus: 8:30 a.m. in dubai. >> and 5:30 a.m. in london. i am anna edwards. we continue to count towards the start of the european trading day. good morning. a bit of a heads up of what's coming up in europe today. we will focus, as ever, on the brexit debate gripping the united kingdom. david cameron will appeal to britain's patriotism by of evoking imagery of wartime leader winston churchill later on today, saying in a speech around 8:00 u.k. time that the european union has helped
reconcile countries which were at each other's throats for decades. so politics is very much at the fore in this particular installment of the brexit debate, but that doesn't mean that the country is anymore decided than it was. 42%latest poll i have seen, for remain and 40% for leaving. i have the chart next to me on bloomberg, showing the exactly how the end these two are running in the polling, and how many undecideds we have. 19% to 20% undecided in many polls coming through. they can names will be speaking on the subject, manus. mark carney, christine lagarde, and george osborne, and boris johnson, of course, for the leave side. grexiti thought brexit, was back on the horizon -- we have contingency measures. the imf demanding contingency measures. this is just a never-ending story, isn't it? anna: the never-ending greek saga.
greeks are fighting to unlock the next tranche of aid money. ministers will be gathering in brussels today, putting this back on the radar. at issue is contingency measures the imf demanded greeks implement worth 3.5 billion euros, about 3% of the greek gdp, a politically thorny issue for a prime minister who came into power by promising he would oppose extra austerity. he only has a three-c parliamentary -- three-seat ary majority.re manus: anna, denmark warned -- what is that about? many asnmark is seen by a test case for the negative interest rate phenomenon that has swept much of the developed world. they had it for four years, and
at the imf is warning about asset bubbles in the housing market. another reminder of the, of how much of a frontier of the latest thinking by central banks on policy denmark is in europe. we will be watching closely. inus: anna, we will see you just under 25 minutes. can't wait. rish? rishaad: middle eastern companies and governments are o pening to the bond market. gcc members have been sounding out opportunities. our economy editor joins us. what's going on here exactly? >> well, these governments are going from surpluses into a trillionith nearly dollars projected in deficit in the gcc by 2021.
qatar is talking about tapping the market. saudi arabia said they will do their first international bond issuance by the end of the year, possibly a program over two to three years. this is something we will continue to see as they try to tap domestic deposits and the international bond market. rishaad: thank you very much. manus: also with us to discuss the bond market stories, our guest --welcome to "bloomberg markets middle east." there is a big demand for bonds in the region. abu dhabi, a $17 billion demand. this market is hot. >> i think, you know, you said it earlier. if you are getting zero on treasuries, negative interest rates, whatever it is globally,
if you can get 3% or more for double-a credit, why not? we have had a strong rally. on the jpmorgan index. down about 60 to 75 basis points. a lot of it is because we did not see a lot of supply, but in april the floodgates opened, with $5 billion, and now you have a pretty active pattern going. that should have some impact on spreads. demand will be pretty strong. manus: let's talk about the spreads. i have a chart set up for you here. we are down to 4.79%. my question is, is there more compression to come with this issuance? how much more compression could there be? this has,: a lot of the back of a rebounding oil
price, and a more stable oil environment, with less volatility. i think, like i said, relatively low supply up until april -- with newer supply, i don't think there will be a huge amount of further compression, at least not to the extent we have seen. i don't think we are going to int what we did way back january, february. we probably are going to be 4.7%, between 4.5% and 4.9%, but i don't think there will be breaking much wider than 5%, or much better than 4.5%. when you look a little bit deeper, and i'm curious to get your thoughts on this, the s&p cut three levels on saudi. did they go too far? abdul kadr: you have to look at the rate saudi was burning through reserves. they went through $146 billion in no time at all. i think that sort of scared a
lot of people, including the rating agencies. that has slowed down significantly now, and i think that has stabilized. oil is stable, subsidies have kicked in. the reduction of subsidies kicked in. i think the rating agencies are feeling a little better now. manus: they action got ahead of the curve? dr: they have, at least one of them. i think we are probably stable as far as ratings are concerned in the short-term. it will depend, i think, because a lot of this vision 2030 stuff, how it is starting to get executed, i think some of this will determine the direction of of ratings going forward, as will obviously oil prices. manus: the s&p cuts three levels. moody's goes negative on qatar. bahrain is already junk. my question is, where do i want to be in the region in terms of a little security and a moderately good deal? kadr: the one country you
did not mention is the uae, so obviously -- manus: i will get e-mails on that. [laughter] abdul kadr: that is more stable credit. a rating isdouble not under threat. having said that, i think saudi will be a first-time issuer and there will be some rarity value around that. qatar has not issued in a long time, so there will be some interest around that issue. i think in general, you know, investors, one of the things investors like about this region, despite the fact it is, has always negative headlines about geopolitics and oil, is that this region never had an issue with willingness to repay debt, and as an emerging market investor that is a positive going into a position. so there clearly is some benefit to that. indeed, there is still outsidebhara -- outside bahrain
furtively strong -- fairly strong investment-graded countries. the show to talk credit at any time. at maastrichter capital. rishaad: let's get more on the to be she making headlines. juliette: we saw mitsubishi heavy shares rise on the nikkei, lifting the nikkei even higher than it was earlier. the second-best-performing stock at the moment, up 7%. it was up 9% couple minutes ago as we got the news coming through on the wire. mitsubishi has forecast a full-year profit gain, a very nice pickup coming through in share prices, as we see on the screen in the intraday. it was up almost 10%. we are seeing those gains coming through in japan. a weaker yen helping things out
there. australia just turning positive now, up 0.1%. new zealand, a bit of mixed movement. have a look at the divergence between what we see in hong kong and shanghai, both on their lunch breaks. the shanghai h sharemarket down 2.2%, a hefty fall today, really to do with the fact that we have had the trade data coming through out of the weekend which has disappointed investors. in hong kong, though, we see good moves from the likes of the energy players, and a number of other stocks moving higher. index up 1.5%. good moves in japan and the mixed moves in hong kong are helping the regional index out, which is slightly higher. defensive health care stocks are doing quite well. seeing a switch out of basic material players. oil and gas is up 0.3% as we continue to see brent and new york contracts rising in futures trading.
having a look at other players we have been watching in the region, we see singapore iron ore futures tumbled significantly early today. fortis skew -- fortescue under pressure. raised topgrade, neutral. and a little commentary on the hong kong property market today, saying they expect house prices in hong kong to drop 25%, saying you should be buying into the developers as they see a little stabilization coming through in the hong kong poverty market -- property market. most of the focus is on japan, leading the region higher. shanghai very much dragging today. rishaad: thanks, juliette. coming up, the world's most secretive state, but over the
manus: welcome back. you are watching "bloomberg markets middle east." 10 to get you up to speed with other stories around the world. shery ahn is here. shery: donald trump has been speaking about taxes, saying his biggest concern is giving the middle class a sizable break. he said he is less worried about helping the rich. trump outlined his strategy last september, but acknowledged things will change if he wins and has to discuss plans in greater detail. he has frequently shifted his economic proposals, including suggesting he would not eliminate the national debt because he can renegotiate it. the new mayor of london has promised to work for all communities in the city, saying he not only tolerates, but
celebrates adversity. khan sees the election as a challenge to rising right-wing rhetoric, including from marine le pen and donald trump. khan was sworn in on saturday after beating conservative zac goldsmith. the governor general has formally dissolve parliament in australia after the prime minister announced a call for an election. the economy is front and center. malcolm turnbull wants to end a cycle of six prime ministers in eight years. the odds are close, with the opposition labor party polling 50-50. reports from india say authorities have asked interpol to issue a red notice for the arrest of a tycoon. the drinks and aviation mogul is living in the u k, and is set to
owe $1.4 billion connected to his defunct kingfisher airline. india has asked the british forrnment to arrest him to address his creditors. he has said he intends to pay up. powered by 2400 journalists in 150 bureaus around the world, this is lumbered news. i am -- this is bloomberg news. i am shery ahn. rishaad: voting is underway in the philippines, where more than 50 million people are choosing a new president as well as lawmakers on the national and local levels. some suggest this election could be the most important in 30 years. our southeast asia correspondent has haslinda amin is in manila. there is quite a bit at stake here. he has said he intends to pay up. powered by 2400 journalists in 150 bureaus around the world, this is lumbered news. ihaslinda: well, a lot is at stake. the future of the economy is at stake. we are looking at an economy growing 6% on average.
it is no longer the sick man of asia. ihs says the philippine economy could be a $1 trillion economy by 2030. but that cannot be taken for granted. the next president will decide if the momentum continues, or if the country takes two steps back. if you take a look at the list of candidates, it is a dense list of people. leading the popularity poll is rodgrigo duterte, who is seen as a renegade leader. he is a man who is a self-confessed womanizer, and says that in order to bring the crime rate around the country down he will kill 100,000 criminals. the comments have spooked community of investors. if you look at how the peso has been doing in april, it has been declining.
well for the leading candidate of the presidential race here in the philippines. rishaad: we all know how hawkish he is, the front runner. is he hawkish when it comes to geopolitics? what are the indications there? well, when it comes to geopolitics, i think you are referring to relationships with the likes of the u.s. and china. if you take a look at the u.s., the philippines increasingly have relied on the u.s. to help it respond to china in the south china sea. duterte being the front runner is making things unbalanced. when the u.s. complains about a comment he made, he challenges the bilateral
relationship between the countries. geopolitics plays a huge role, and the u.s. is reliant on the philippines to strike the balance with china. following the moment in the philippines closely, and who emerges who will leave the country for the next six years -- lead the country for the next six years. rishaad: haslinda amin, our southeast asia correspondent. manus: the north korean leader kim and has announced a five-year plan, the first since the 1980's. he put the focus on energy, agriculture, and light manufacturing. our china correspondent tom mackenzie was in pyongyang for the party congress, looking at how north korea has changed under can's -- kim's rule. tom: the old economy still dominates in north korea. vast factories churning out basic products, like this copper cable maker in pyongyang. the country exports some
commodities, so far fewer now that its biggest trading partner, china, has banned most imports in line with u.n. sanctions. it makes money by sending laborers abroad and relies heavily on agriculture. but in pyongyang, there have been some notable changes. new buildings have sprung up. there are more cars on the road. there is a growing choice of shops and restaurants. we got to ride in a city taxi, operated by one of the country's multiple government controlled cab firms. even the public transfer system has seen some minor upgrades. we are inside the pyongyang metro. it is big, grand, and lots of people are using it. but they are still relying on these very old german trains. -madehave introduced dprk trains, and they say that is a sign of economic development here. passengers can also now swipe in
rather than rely on paper tickets. back on the city streets, there is evidence of a more significant technological upgrade. pyongyang residents are avid smartphone users, and can now choose from a number of different brands. we visited this store, selling one make reportedly produced here in north korea. $400op model cost around and comes preloaded with an android operating system and a host of apps, including five versions of "angry birds." but as is often the case in north korea, things are not always what they seem. blockedional calls are on cell phones here, and the only surfing you can do is on the government controlled intranet. for bloomberg news, i am tom mackenzie in pyongyang. manus: great reporting from tom mackenzie and the team. ow, say it for long enough and it is bound to come true. the prediction from the 1990's
rishaad: you are back with "bloomberg markets middle east." just one hour before markets open across the emirates. what do you have in mind here? manus: i just wonder, are we going to keep the trend intact? we have oil rocking a little bit higher this morning. nymex up, and brent on the rally. the gcc stocks have broken trend, the longest losing streak . the bloomberg gcc 200 index. there is a belief in this new accession to power in the saudi oil ministry.
we jumped the most in over two weeks in our market here. 65% of companies rallied yesterday in the uae. volume is a little bit light, 65% of average volume. abu dhabi volumes were just a little higher. the relation between oil and markets is inextricably linked, though they would say it is not about oil driving the credit market. you are channeling george soros. rishaad: george soros, looking at what is going on with the yen. he predicted a weaker yen, comparing what's going on in terms of the size of the monetary base. the size of the monetary base, that has gotten wider and wider, nearly 100% of that of the u.s.. you see that in the white line.
the orange one, showing a recent depreciation of the yen. this will eventually make itself felt, and we will have the yen turning weaker. we have japan, europe, the united states, who have widened balance sheets, and we have not seen much in terms of liquidity injected into the system. china has an advantage in all that. when they introduce more stimulus, more credit, it works, and that works because sometimes it is good to have a command economy. so they are able to turn the taps on much easier than the japanese or indeed mario draghi or janet yellen as well. so that's really what's going on. soros is printing a weaker yen because of the size of the monetary base, nearly the size of that of the united states. manus? manus: thank you very much. anna edwards and i will be back
oil is on the rise. expanding wildfires in canada knock out one million barrels a day of output. saudi shakeup. the kingdom replaces ali al-naimi with khaled al-falih as its new oil minister. he promises to keep pumping in a bid to break the -- and channeling churchill. david cameron speaks of memories of the wartime leader as he presses the case of keeping britain within the eu. a w