tv Bloomberg Best Bloomberg July 16, 2016 8:00am-9:01am EDT
♪ coming up on "bloomberg best ," the stories that shaped the weekend business around the world. equities soar while bond yields drop. boe resists a rate cut and earnings season begins with banks in the spotlight. >> is a case of no news is good news. erik: a new prime minister takes over in britain. >> we will forge a bold new positive role for ourselves and the world. >> it doesn't sound like she is a huge proponent of austerity. >> what he said is well, well done. you won. you fix it.
erik: we get more exclusive perspective on what a brexit means for business. >> they will have to redeploy people and decide what countries they are going to. >> this will require a complete reassessment going forward. erik: from highflying deals to augmented reality, it is all straight ahead on "bloomberg best." ♪ erik: hello and welcome. i erik schatzker. this is "bloomberg best," your weekly review of the most important business news, analysis and interviews from bloomberg television around the world. let's start with the day by day look at the top headlines. many investors had thursday and friday circled on the calendar, waiting anxiously for bank earnings. but the week began with equity markets on an unexpected tear.
close wasvious record 2130.8. we barely missed that on friday but we are blown through it today at 2137. 2137.4e blown through the intraday high. we have beat it today. here is something really weird. are you ready for this? higher rates on government securities. most days whether the market is up or down we see lower rates. two-year yield up to 2.65. i feel like it would be a lot of excitement about these new highs, but because we see yields grinding lower today it feels like people are very nervous about what this market is really telling them. >> especially when you see the 10-year spike backup seven points quickly today. those yield can move quickly and really for personal whole thing
you had going into it. >> i think it's going to be scrutinized incredibly. at a record 500 with the great jobs report on friday, it makes you wonder do we really deserve to keep rates this low indefinitely? it could potentially be a self-defeating route. the stoxx 600. 60 and up, three down. rising for the fourth consecutive day. stress-- longest winning since july 3. >> of about 5.4%. also the case on a risk adjustment return basis when you take into account price swings. >> is not just the u.k., europe, it's also global markets rally into the fourth day. i want to look into my terminal because i have this chart showing what japanese stocks are doing. the topics headed biggest
two-day jump since february, one of the broadest gains in months. >> on the equities side we had brand-new records for the s&p 500 and the dow jones industrial average. bc dow and 18 347, breaking through the may 2015 hi and the s&p 500 at 2152 with an all-time high. >> also big gains in the russell 2000. >> we are in uncharted territory. can we go higher? >> we will go higher. modestlooking at a very earnings environment. 3%, 4% earnings growth a year. with volatility down with companies integrate job managing cash flow and getting capital back to shareholders we will see a multiple push higher and stocks will rise. britain's prime minister is pulling up to 10 downing street, her future home.
she is this country's second woman to be in the job. margaret thatcher was the first. you see her stepping up alongside her husband, philip, banker in the city of london. here she is. let's listen in. >> we are in an important moment in our country's history. following a referendum we face a time of great national change. i know because we are great britain that we will rise to the challenge. as we leave the european union we will forge a bold new positive role for ourselves in the world. and we will make britain the country that works not for the privileged few, but for everyone of us. >> i thought was also fascinating she spoke directly to those she said were disenfranchised. those over looking for work. she gave a clear mission statement. >> it doesn't sound like he is a huge proponent of austerity and
a budget cutting and spending cuts, which this country has been through a lot of over the last six years. i think some of this is she knows the referendum, though it was about the u.k.'s membership in the european union, was in some ways about a lot more. it was an antiestablishment vote. it was a vote against london. it was a vote against privilege. it was a vote against elitism. i think what we're seeing is her attempts to address that. in addition to saying -- though she did not talk about it in the speech, you will get your exit from the european union. but i also hear you. i think this is what she was channeling -- i hear what you are saying about social justice. >> some breaking news in the bank of england. rates unchanged. 0.5%. ratem majority expecting a cut the coming down to 0.25%.
rates unchanged at the bank of england. 0.5%. they stay where they have been since march 2009. the asset purchase program remains where it was at 375 billion pounds. >> what they are saying is we don't have enough information to make a decision at this stage. some are suggesting in the beginning of august we may see a rate cut coming through. it was 8-1. that speaks for itself. washat do you think it pulling them back this time around? >> closely at the medications thing. the three-week wait until august is not very long. it gives him the chance to explain why they are cutting, how much they are cutting, they have a new forecast. they are hoping to explain with her actions are. >> you expect the racing another zero eventually. does it, all at once? >> i think if you look at today's decision there was only
one member that voted for a rate cut. even he voted for a 25 basis point cut. i'm not sure they will do all the 50 basis points we expect in one go in august, but i think we get at least 25. i do see a bigger movement 40 or 50 basis points in august. another option is to do more tv, more -- qe, asset purchases and also some corporate bonds. jpmorgan, the big banking story today, setting the bar high for bank earnings this quarter. the biggest u.s. bank by assets said revenue increased nearly 3%. loan growth and higher rates also giving the bank a boost. >> we saw strong results, especially in the markets revenue lines which help of the revenue be that you referenced before. jpmorgan is always used as the strongest manager and in
volatile times this is the type of stock investors want to own. we saw proof of that as a result. >> whether you are looking at mortgages, that is something they were able to bring up, as well as deposits on the retail side. on the investment banking side, equities trading as well, everything was really great. >> our top story, terror returns. france in a state of emergency. they will deploy numbers of security forces after eight the attackay -- bastille day in nice kills 84 people. >> they drove for more than a mile. >> france has had at seven -- its seventh terrorist attack. terrorist threat is gaining critical mass among people who are vulnerable to
radicalization. i think that is the conditions that are not likely to change. >> and all of this at a time when pressure is increasing. europe is increasingly asking itself what it is -- the political construct of europe. that's a dangerous combination, isn't it? >> i think one of the aims of soworism such as this is to political instability. >> is no longer a geographically contained problem. it is all over the world. we are seeing more and more of it and we will see more and more of it because individuals become inspired by these articles of hatred that come out by social media. the french are going to do this. they are a extended their period of emergency and are much more vigilant than other countries. still it does not prevent these things. we dig deeperead,
app sort to the top of download charts and nintendo's stock has skyrocketed. >> if you walk around you was the multitudes of people running around playing this game. what is it mean for the company down the road once the fever dies off? >> it's been a tough time for nintendo. they are seen as not "keep up with the changes in the gaming console sales have slowed and people move towards mobile gaming apps. now investors see this is just the tip of the ip iceberg of nintendo. thatbrand has such pull they are able to make markets by capitalizing on their franchises, the potential is enormous. that is why we are seeing these insane skyrockets in its stock price. >> nintendo's it was game has their stock soaring. this is lifted value by $7.1 billion. if the premium model, any game by an out -- in app purchases.
how does this translate into money? --essentially, players casinos in vegas advantage players with card counters. you can buy your way and as you play this game. it's a premium model or the download for free and they've been able to get a lot of people to download and benefit from this. >> there has been a change the top of burglary. -- burbery. the ceo willis in the title chief creative officer. he is joining bailey at the helm of the company. >> i have led the search for marco. board quite a while ago about all the opportunities in identifying all the opportunities that we had ahead of us. address i wanted to
these skills that we needed in order to execute on those. outrtainly did not start the search looking for a ceo, but the more i meant different people and when i finally met with marco i started talking about a partnership. it just felt i would like to get marco into the company and it evolved from there. diane wonda -- amc has agreed to buy that is the biggest takeover says the brexit vote. what does this mean for amc? >> it was the back of the directory of being a world leader in operators. best theyrolled by have been talking about taking over car mike in the u.s. -- carmike in the u.s. the offer was too low. now this new bid is looking like
it's been much a done deal. it is expected to close at the end of this year. amc is back on track. >> what does this mean for wonda now? wonda saidrman of for some time he was to control 20% of the global movie market by 2020. you can see he is clearing doing that through the cinema business. >> amazon prime day. amazon says worldwide orders climbed more than 60% over the last year. a hot seller -- fire tv stick. is the best-selling amazon gadget that help them triple last year's sales. they conflict limiter estimates that suggested sales were flat. how big a success to you think it was? results were generally in line with expectations.
3xy said it was threex -- growth for party sales. you can but with the realization they probably did about $1 billion in total gross sales and $500 million in net sales. a year ago it was $400 million approximately. i think that was roughly in line with expectations. the stock is in running up. it did not gap up because expectations were already there. it was probably as expected. >> why such a gap between the third-party advisers were saying and what amazon is saying? >> i suspect some of it has to the third-party access. they could not see a lot of the traffic because a lot of it was captured and amazon themselves. it's a separate story and a good one because it shows us how ability to appear at the amazon is quite limited, more limited and we thought. line forre a straight tech ipo success? is looking that way for line, the japanese messaging company
that would public today and the biggest technology ipo so far this year. in the excitement be sustained? >> in markets like japan, taiwan, indonesia, the top markets it's very sticky. that is what we have seen the investor interest momentum going into this listing. the big question is whether that can continue. there is some scarcity about it being one of very few in the biggest tech ipo this year. that is driving up demand. when it comes to u.s. investors we have seen they can be pretty fickle when it comes to social platform. tech stocks can they expand in asia and do they have opportunities in other markets like the u.s. when they don't have the penetration that some other apps do. >> a lot of people are wondering. having raise $1 billion, what are you going to do with this money? >> first of all, i'm very happy. we are very happy with the
initial response from the investor. i feel a great responsibility of the same time. most of all we are going to focus on investing and strengthening our services. citi and wells fargo reported falling profits in the second quarter. let's start with citi. what did you take a work in their earnings report? >> with respect to citi and jpmorgan yesterday, it's a case of no news is good news. investors were worried about the effects of brexit. the first quarter saw increasing losses due to oil and gas prices. a little bit of worry about consumer credit. what we saw is not of the things are really a big problem. citi navigated the quarter very well on the trading side, although investment banking revenue was down.
consumer credit performed very well around the world. in the u.s., asia, latin america. credit quality is improving to some extent. , the rate environment is not as big as the head went as we might've expected. >> wells fargo has been the driver and earnings among large banks. a little disappointing this time. what was the problem? >> wells fargo is little bit more interest rate sensitive. they place a limit bigger bet that some of the other banks on rising rates. grow loans and deposits as much as jpmorgan. looking at jp's results they were so strong in gaining on both sides of the balance sheet. i think there was a little bit of an expectation that wells would also be similar. just a slight disappointment i would say. ♪
it's been a momentous week in global politics. the transfer of power from david cameron to new prime minister theresa may and three weeks of limbo for the united kingdom. the new leadership inherits a host of difficult decisions, starting with the formation of a new cabinet. >> we have just learned that philip hammond, the former secretary of this country is just been appointed chancellor of the exchequer. he will be britain's finance minister. he has been in parliament for the last good 20 years. he was defense secretary before he was foreign secretary. clearly this country's finance minister will have a big role in the negotiations with the european union. he is well suited to that job, at least in terms of his background. he was foreign secretary. he knows many of the leaders of the eu countries. crucial for the
chancellor of the exchequer to maintain access to the single market. >> boris johnson is back. how did that happen? >> just a few days ago if you had asked what boris johnson was going to do now, i think everyone outside would've been scratching her head. it was almost as if he had been wiped out of the political landscape in the u.k. yet he is now foreign secretary. very interesting to see in this cabinet that theresa may is putting together you have both brexiteers and remainers that now to act as one team to lead this country. a very divided country after that referendum. one that she is intent to lead of the european union. ar, whatew brexit cz are his credentials? >> he has been around the political scene from longtime on the conservative side. he ran for leadership back in the mid to thousands. -- 2000's.
a lot of the dimensions to this guy. a little bit about his stance triggering article 50. he wrote an article in the u.k. about that. he is broadly on the same page as theresa may on that one. he has talked about doing quick trade deals with other countries around the world. he sees free trade with europe a possibility. fox,so it flies the liam who is always been a philanthropist. and boris johnson as well. they are all from the broom -- liberal end of the brexit union. one of the reasons for ditching brussels is they wanted -- they thought britain could survive well as an independent free trading nation. the problem with the brexit moving it is to groups of people. one group that like that kind of that is and one kind more numerous.
>> is it wise putting of these brexiteers in prominent roles? >> some say it is shrewd against the end result is not passable, palatable for the nation. >> i think it's a little bit too machiavellian. position,t people in david davis is particularly welcome. he is very able. he has thought a lot about these issues. he will be determined to make a great success of it, the extrication of britain from the european union. test ofll be the acid the first term of theresa may's premiership. >> talk to me about philip hammond. is it a safe pair of hands? >> i don't think he will be any surprises, but i don't think he will be at a great reforming
chancellor. i do think he is a safe pair of hands. >> boris johnson is foreign secretary, michael that's not always -- osborne not even in the cabinet. one of the shockers? >> those will do. boris johnson was and continues to be the big surprise. it is a really interesting choice. i would not have been surprised if you've given him nothing. his leadership campaign blew up on the launchpad. one thing she could have done is said to all the brexiteers, all who had similarly difficult launches, you guys have had your shot. i am here now and i will fix it. what she has said in fact is well, well done. you won. you fix it. >> in australia and japan this week incumbent leaders appeared to strengthen their legislative positions.
but it remains to be seen whether the political gains will translate into more momentum for their dragging economies. stocks set for gains on monday after prime minister about them herbal finally claimed election victory more than a week after the polls closed. those are still being counted. let's not forget that. the result is a look clear now. >> it does. the australian electoral commission is not going to declare a final tally until july 15 when the deadline closes for postal votes. the government has been returned with the slim majority. we take a look at the tally, the coalition on 76 seats. the opposition labor party at 69. the government may get to 77 seats. >> also putting australia on negative credit watch last week may 20 headlines. it seems the market shrugged it off. >> australia still looks good.
the u.s. and u.k. had a downgrade but investors still like those bonds. look at japan's debt. that has negative yields as well. currency, equity and bond markets are unconcerned. >> japanese from his or shinzo abe-- prime minister shinzo has a convincing victory in the upper house elections. does this put abe and a stronger position to move forward with the stimulus plan? >> it does put him in a stronger position. it looks like he is heading for a two thirds majority in the upper house. the question remains how will he use that majority? in the past three and half years we seen a lot of action since the first era of monetary policy. the bank of japan has been a lot of money, bought a lot of assets a government bonds to help stimulate the economy. we are also seeing fiscal spending.
the government spent quite a lot. many cups comes to the third arrow of economic reform. that is the question mark. you have to see if you will knuckle down to do more for economic reforms. >> there is a lot of calls for fiscal stimulus from abe, including a close advisor calling for a 20 trillion yen boost. 199 billion u.s. dollars. are we going to get it? >> we're certainly going to get more stimulus. will we get 20 trillion? i'm not sure about that. >> here is another of the week's geopolitical shots that will reverberate through global markets. ruledernational tribunal against china in his dispute with the philippines over control of the south china sea. claim to what 80% of the south china sea has been ruled know and void. -- null and void.
china's efforts have exceeded the law. china make clear it will not comply with this ruling. there is no enforcement mechanism either, no international maritime police force. what is the significance of this ruling beyond the fact that it's illegal -- a legal ruling? >> it might mean a lot. it sets in normative baseline by which to judge claims over the south china sea and elsewhere. it also puts china on notice that it needs to abide by international law. this is a case where people around the world are judging it based on his actions, not just what it says. >> china saying they hope they can resolve this diplomatically through talks. what is the likelihood of that? >> is clear that china will not abide by the tribunal ruling. now is aa would expect
set of negotiations with the philippines. it is probably what the philippines, especially under the new government, the president, would like to achieve. he does not want to go from china. he was elected on domestic issues, not international issues. to help poverty and inequality and criminality. he -- he was to diffuse the crisis, but more importantly to convince china there is a need for massive investment to come to the philippines. erik: coming up, the future of business in the u.k. and europe has taken center stage since the
♪ erik: you are watching "bloomberg best." britain has a new prime minister and a new cabinet, but as the u.k. prepares to negotiate its exit it's unclear how businesses will be affected. throughout the week on bloomberg television we spoke with high profile business leaders about their brexit concerns and their plan to deal with the changes. let's start with my exquisite conversation with the head of
the ubs investment bank. i asked him what brexit will mean for the thousands of people he employees in the u.k. considerld need to living a number of our employees to european union countries. we will still have a base in the u.k., still deal with the u.k. and way we deal with the u.k. today. are looking ate other countries that are not european union based would not change. part of the business that is eu business done from london would you to be done from elsewhere. erik: we are talking about 5000 people that you employ currently in london in that scenario. how many of them i were talking about moving? >> i would say you have a significant impact. i would say ubs is a swiss organization that has had plans in place for a long time to follow market development. i would not say it is something
that is on our doorstep tomorrow. it is something we have some time, although not as much as we would like to prepare for. erik: the world need to know the applications are for london as a financial center and for all the banks that operate there. are we talking about half your people? in his half your people in london, are they going to zurich, frankfurt, are they going to paris, madrid? >> i do think -- when i say significant people it would be a significant percentage. i can't tell you how many. it would be relevant for everyone to be concerned that this will require a complete reassessment of our model going forward. >> last week saw nearly $18 billion for the u.k. funds shutter or gate. you chose a different road.
ute -- you devalue the fun. are you going to gate the fund? give us a sense of what happens next for your property exposure. >> monday last week we saw zero -- $2 almost at million on a $3 billion fund. then the surprise news came in the afternoon that one of the funds was skating -- gating. that caused the panic selling in the market. you can understand people taking money out of a property find at nav in investing at a 20% discount. it was a good arbitrage. we took the view that one of our obligations was to provide liquidity to our holders. ourot a valuation done by valuer on a stress valuation.
they came back about 20% to 25%. >> 2008 injury down by about 40%. this will cause commercial property assets to be sold. how much will commercial property assets drop by? >> we are in a very, very different environment this time. 2007-2008 was a liquidity driven crisis. there was no liquidity in the market. the world was awash with liquidity at the moment. we are seeing a huge institutional interest in u.k. property. we are obviously very big and committed to both the u.k. anti-europe. -- and to europe. we are fantastic customers in that market. we will help them anyway we possibly can. >> would you have to rethink your operation in europe or the
u.k. because the regulations? >> no matter how it does unfold we will be very active in helping our customers and aggressively focused on the market. >> what issues would be on your radar before determining you will tweak the operations in those markets? >> the things that are effective or affect our decisions in markets are availability of people. do we have access to quality people coming out of probably universities so we can build our workforce? we make various decisions on where to house service support and sales operations. we would like to bring this operations is close to customers and is close to talent as we possibly can. most of our decisions when we hire and development centers really revolve around access to talent, access to markets, access to customers. >> do you think the doomsday
scenarios we've heard before the vote took place, will they still play out? >> i think it will have a impact. you have to negotiate on the exit terms. how long is that going to take? it may take two years or four years. once that happens nobody's company can pass for the europe. you will have to redeploy people and decide which countries to go to. ireland, or the netherlands, or where? where to have their headquarters. will all the people leave, all the business leaf? -- leave? i don't think so. we have a large operation and we have a new company that passports in the europe, we will have to change that. i don't think it will change
that much. lords.ll be only about 4% of their business is in sterling. i feel -- i don't think that will be a big problem but there will be an adjustment period. the automobile industry and the u.k. will be hard-hit. once you get rid of all the treaties, the economic treaties, is going to cause a problem. erik: from business conditions on the ground to big business and the air. conversations from the farmer -- air show are coming up next. this is bloomberg. >♪
we are heading back to england now where this week the world's top aviation executives gathered to talk shop and strike deals with the farnborough airshow. guy johnson was there to get their thoughts on the state of the industry and the impact of brexit. tell me what brexit means for your business. >> for other than the foreign exchange of peoples due to this -- of people's due to this, we still a passenger numbers. we have passengers traveling in and out of europe. as a matter of fact more and more people are now flying into the u.k. because of the lower -- >> wouldn't this be a golden opportunity to raise that state? we stock is suppressed. >> are at 15.24 everyone to stay at that level. we are long-term investment so thise confident relationship between us and aig will keep growing and we will
keep on benefiting from each other's purchasing power. >> you don't see this as an opportunity to raise the state? >> we are not thinking about that at all. >> are you worried about the instability? >> we are not worried about instability. we have full confidence in the british economy and the british government. things will rebound and things will be as usual. this is what i think will happen. we don't see brexit affecting long-term plans. we have a long-term perspective. we have been in the u k for 75 years and will continue to ramp up. we don't see our plans changing. >> the pound continues to fall. is there a competitive currency story here we need to talk about? >> we'll see currency fluctuations changing the behavior of our customers a lot. in the long-term business like aerospace local currency fluctuations don't tend to drive our decision on supply chain.
we can drive affordability, we try to take advantage of it. >> let's talk about interest rates. they are incredibly low. is that offset the cheaper oil prices? they can run all the planes a little longer to new were planes at low interest rates. does one offset the other? >> i think it helps in the overall financing marketplace and create economic movement around the world. i think it's advantageous and encourages some additional investment infrastructure, which i think is a key enabler for the aerospace business. community as a whole expects decisions to be taken. uncertainty is not good. the new prime minister, i think, is good news for everybody. regarding airbus, we are committed to the country. we are disappointed but we don't expect it will affect our relationship as we have more than 15,000 employees.
david cameron yesterday confirmed that the u.k. will remain a business friendly land and will support aerospace. >> expectations were low and where demand is going to be. is demand for aircraft now falling? >> he have seen traffic numbers. that increased by 6.5% globally last year. the first six months we can see another 6% year after year. the market is bullish. airlines need more aircraft faster. especially for the family. i would not be surprised if tony more familyuld need from the aircraft. -- friendly aircraft. >> boeing in the dust on the second day of the air show. airbus lended a $12.6 billion
airliner deal from air asia. a huge order coming through. $12.6 billion. i'm assuming you did not pay list price. >> no, i wouldn't be standing here if i did. >> in terms of purchasing aircraft, it's very important. this is a buyers market. >> let's be real. there are not too many orders going around this airshow. it is been a dryer period after a boom period. timing is everything. we are very happy with airbus. there is plenty of liquidity out there. on top of the fact we are disposing a lot of the older aircraft. we are a leasing company that we are going to sell. cash is not the main issue here. >> interest rates around the world -- >> that's another reason for
european markets. they have been big, big underperformers. >> i also like to look in currencies. i pulled up wcrs to see a role reversal today. check out these currencies against the dollar. friday at the top if the british gaining 2% against the dollar. down at the very bottom in the japanese yen losing 2% against the dollar. erik: there are about 30,000 functions on the bloomberg. we always enjoy showing you our favorite some bloomberg television. maybe they will become your favorites. here is another function you will find useful. quic go. it will take you to quick takes we can get context and insights about timely topics. the subject of this week's quick take is the black lives matter movement. >> they exist because of this. >> and this.
and this. >> you shop for bullets into him, sir. he was just getting his license and registration, sir. >> they can rise to this. >> black lives matter! >> it's a #, a rallying cry in a movement. is direct the intersection of race relations and deadly force in america. the u.s. government does not keep an official count of shootings by law enforcement, but an ongoing watch group tallied 990 fatal shooting's by law enforcement in 2015. of the 93 unarmed civilians killed by police in each cases, more than 40% are black despite the fact of black people make up 13% of the nation's population. in 1992, los angeles police opposites were acquitted of the beating of black driver rodney king. there was anger and riots but no movement. today the difference is social media.
how did this movement start? in 2012 trayvon martin was gunned down by george zimmerman, a neighborhood watch volunteer he claimed he shot him in self-defense. after zimmerman's acquittal, the first black lives matter debuted as a hashtag on twitter. you reemerged in a vaguely a year later when michael brown was shot by ferguson police officer darren wilson at a protest freedom ride that took place under the black lives matter banner. more than 500 people attended. in august 2014 the #black lives matter was used more than 52,000 times. here is the argument. following the shootings of police officers doing a protest march in dallas, the black lives matter movement is spilling over to being an election issue. although not a clear-cut one. while hillary clinton is staunchly in favor of the movement, she has not impressed the movement's leaders. they disrupted a speech and
private fundraiser as well as a speechwriter husband, former president bill clinton. >> i love protesters. except when they will let you answer. >> donald trump is in favor. >> you can hear it once. all lives matter. >> trump's been critical of the black lives matter protesters and said police are " the most mistreated people in this country." erik: that was just one of the many quick picks you can find on the bloomberg. you can also find them at bloomberg.com, along with all the latest business news and analysis 24 hours a day. that will be all for "bloomberg best." things are watching. i'm erik schatzker. this is bloomberg. ♪