tv Bloomberg Markets Asia Bloomberg November 30, 2016 9:00pm-10:01pm EST
lift, aussie oil stocks their highest in years. let's get back to our top story, strength and china, the official factory gauge the highest since july 2014, 51.7, expecting just 51. rishaad: a private survey showing growth, but below what the thinking is out there. tom mackenzie, take it away. 51.7.he official number we have been looking into the details of this number, strong new orders from the manufacturing sector. we saw that in october as well. export demand has picked up, consumers still playing a role.
that is some of the breakdown we are getting. picking upe prices for the first time in four years earlier this year, so proving positive as well. inflation is helping the manufacturing sector as well. industry,in the steel and on the nonmanufacturing side, strength of their as well. the official number coming in for october at 54, and strengthened again this month back around 53.7. then, we have questions over the growth drivers when it comes to what we are seeing in the manufacturing sector. analysts saying this is further evidence of cheap credit going thate manufacturers, and the state owned enterprises are benefiting from it. expandeder firms have at a less quick paced than
previous months. consumption helping to some degree, so there is the verge and's between large companies and how quickly they are expanding and the smaller firms. does give an element of strength to policymakers going forward here in china. recovery hasf this been driven by loose monetary policy and turning on the leverage taps. what is the likely response from policymakers to this data? consensus seems to be that there is no need for any tightening at this stage. any loosening of monetary policy at this stage, that there will be steps towards gradual, moderate tightening because they want to keep this balance, where as they want to rein in this credit and ensure that growth
continues, a tricky balance to get, but they are now firmly on target. this gives them a stronger platform in which to continue to tackle, for example, the house price mending, credit to home lending, and trying to rein in those prices and tackle some of the excess credit in some of the older sectors, steel and coal industry. seen strength in the steel industry and manufacturing from this november pmi data. this window won't stay open forever. haidi: certainly. tom mckenzie there for us. let's talk about oil. rishaad: front and center after the opec deal. , theer than many expected first output cut in eight years. let's find out more. it extends beyond the
cartel members. let's get some analysis from singapore. we were talking about this yesterday. i guess we were managing expectations. how did this come together in the end? were going up, we to this meeting and it looked like saudi arabia, iran, and iraq had big gaps. saudi arabia and iraq made the biggest cuts of any members and opec, saudi arabia 500,000 barrels a day, iraq 200,000 barrels a day. that allowed iran to get what it wanted, to keep increasing production, but it agreed to increase it to a smaller level than it wanted to. those members on board, everyone else fell in line. it is not just the members of opec. it is also russia, the world's biggest producer of oil,
agreeing to cut its production by 300,000 barrels a day after saying it would prefer to freeze as opposed to cut, so everyone coming together to try to stem this overflow of inventory in the world. it seems to have worked for one day at least with prices shooting up 10%. outside of opec, who does the market see as the winners and losers here? in theare seeing it equity markets all over the world. producers of energy are the big winners, the u.s. s&p 500 sub index for producers went up the most since 2008. oil producers in australia are benefiting. seeingina, so you're these guys as the big winners. big users like airlines have been heard. pricess who like low oil because they buy oil and want to sell gasoline cheaply, they are hurt by this. in the long run, there is a big
question about the oil market. morgan stanley said that while higher oil prices are good now, it will lead to more investment, which down the road might lead to further instability and oil price this time next year. haidi: while opec was putting the finishing touches on this deal, indonesia suspended its membership in the group. what happen this time? >> indonesia was a longtime member of opec. in 2008, it suspended its membership saying we are no longer a big oil exporter. then last year after president -- came into office, they came back and got to this meeting and saw again, realizing higher oil production cuts come higher oil prices benefit them, so they decided to bow out again.
long time coming to the reunion to only last a year, but indonesia back at the net importers table instead of the net exporters table now. haidi: thank you so much for that. the oil priceurse has gone up so much, energy companies are on a tear. let's get the latest. juliette: it was the first cut in eight years. you are seeing australia's energy sector have its biggest 7% inn eight years, up the oil and gas sector, the best gain in the sector since october 2008. out of the five major players in that space, zero are falling, five rising, led i woodside petroleum, up right over 6%. beach energy13%, also strong there.
where we have seen the negative affect is in terms of those airlines. this will weigh a little on their profits, so some of these players in the region coming under pressure, singapore air down 1%, japan airlines off by 2%. deal did this surprise catch the market by surprise, so to speak, and you are seeing solid gains across the region. also, we have seen the dollar yen weaker.in similarly in hong kong, energy producers lifting the hang seng petrochina, sinopec, all this having a massive positive
affect in terms of equities, but you are seeing bonds completely sold off under new to of higher inflation. you're seeing the australian yield on the tenure and -- 10-year note up a by seven points. similarly japan, movement coming through in the yield as well, but an impressive day for equities particularly in that energy space. rishaad: thank you. the latest on the energy companies on a bit of a tear. haidi: great day for oil prices. let's get the latest first word news with sophie kamaruddin. sophie: donald's nominee for treasury secretary says there will be no tax cut for what he calls the upper class. steve mnuchin told cnbc that high income tax reductions would be offset by fear deductions. he said he would label china a currency manipulator if warranted. says tax reform is
his overriding priority. korea's president may have bought herself time after offering to resign. president's ruling party said it will accept her resignation at the end of april, giving her nine tables for --ducing a timetable for nine days for producing a timetable for leaving. is said to have frozen accounts to determine whether american clients are hiding money from the irs. sorcerers say it is investigating powers of attorney to identify owners of undeclared accounts. the justice department wants to know why the bank failed to mention $200 million in assets held by u.s. citizens who have admitted to conspiring to defraud the irs. valid from a pseudo-goes plunged after talks about its gastrointestinal drug division broke down. the discussions fell apart mainly over the price. valeant will pursue interests in
the future sale. it would increase pressure on the company to find ways to reduce its near $30 billion of debt. global news 24 hours a day powered by more than 2600 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. this is bloomberg. haidi: thank you for that. coming up next on "bloomberg markets: asia", we speak to bmws asia ahead and how growth is affecting sales later this hour. rishaad: next, china is better expected pmi numbers and what they really say about the economy. ♪
the target of the biggest insider-trading investigation in u.s. history. haidi: china may have added new restrictions to contain capital outflows, not approving requests to transfer cash abroad unless there is a valid business reason. former bank of korea policy makers says he sees worrying echoes of the asian financial crisis two decades ago , warning household that could spark a similar crisis and says the president park influence scandal is adding to risk. is said toon of debt not pose a serious threat, at least yet. haidi: let's get back to our top story. the cage is coming out of china
showing strength, maintaining that improvement. however, it reinforces that picture that it is the old economy driving the recovery. rishaad: how solid is the stabilization? getting over to singapore, thank you for joining us. it shows we have the old economy doing the heavy lifting. that is good news at the end of the day. i mean, perhaps it is also bad news because it shows the rebalancing has not really gain traction. -- gained traction. >> i think that it is also good show acause the pmi does lot of the demand coming through is from domestic demand, so probably not just the industries driving the growth. it is also the smaller companies or medium-size companies as well
as large companies driving improvement in the chinese manufacturing economy. haidi: i want to show you this chart, which looks at the last couple of years when it comes to this pmi gauge. we have not seen the official manufacturing pmi at these levels since 2014. we've been talking about this to versions picture when it comes to the old and new economies, state-owned companies versus private smes, how would policymakers be reacting to this? recovery ise driven not sustainable forever. policy, theof government is probably still going to stay on the course of rebalancing the economy. the survey shows we have seen economy, soin the there is some form of growth coming in through the chinese
market, and i think that going forward, probably there is less markers tor policy divert from what they are currently in terms of their policy settings. rishaad: absolutely, that's just it, but right now front and is this opec deal. i think it is the biggest cut in output and eight years or thereabouts. did this, as a surprised you? is it good news overall? price factor, the whether they will cut, i think there is a lot of noise in the markets about that. think this is positive for oil prices, but having said that, i think we have seen commodity prices .ising rapidly in the month
have seen inflationary pressure is starting to pick up in our surveys again. haidi: given this bounce in the oil price and newfound optimism in the markets, do we see another leg for the commodities rally? >> i think in terms of the , again, you look at the sub indices and the global pmi surveys, the numbers recently, we have seen a sharp rise in input costs, part of it driven by a rise in commodity prices such as industrial metals and part of this is also oil. deliveryof suppliers times, were not seeing suppliers get easier, so this does suggest that there is a lot of speculation in the market .riving up in put prices in terms of fundamentals, as of now, the pmi is not indicating a fundamental reason or driver for
in put prices. one of the net losers of high energy prices live in the amount of energy they import is japan. they seem to not be able to get it together, can they? what needs to be done? >> in terms of japan, the pmi number does show some pickup in inflationary pressure. in fact, after 10 months of numbers, deflation inflation has picked up, at least ever lies, so we can see that probably get some room for the boj to sit back and let their current policy settings go on. in terms of the manufacturing sector, we have also seen the manufacturing economy being led by that to growth in exports, so that it is also positive, and that also reflects a combination
of factors, including the recent depreciation in the yen, reviving demand in many export the markets. -- export markets. as well as stronger japanese economic growth. haidi: i want to talk about the dollar and where it goes from here. if you assume the market is feeling good about the president-elect pick, business friendly, wall street friendly, if we assume for the strength come how a struggle is a country like malaysia in? >> i think if we see further dollar strength, that will be negative for countries with high foreign debt, because the higher dollar strength also is premised on the fact that the market will see higher u.s. interest rates, and that will probably affect emerging-market debt. foreign u.s. denominated debt.
rishaad: i guess indonesia is in the same boat. you are an economist and not them are specialist, at what point do we see the money returned to emerging markets, and where will it go in your view? who has the strongest fundamentals? economy --ms of the think in terms of the economy, the current economic conditions they do show some pickup in asia manufacturing economies, but of course the pickup is not broad-based across all the asian countries. performe some that will better, for example, china and japan showing stronger signs of manufacturing sector, while we have other countries such as malaysia and decline inhowing a the manufacturing sector, so in
dollar-yen? how far can it go? question, really the isn't it? there is a split, not surprisingly, and the split revolves around the policies of donald trump. he was vocal in campaigning for two things, tax cuts and infrastructure spending, which is what the market seems to have keyed on, those reflationary policies. at the same time, he was protectionist in his rhetoric and the dollar-yen their camp is saying that the market has got it wrong and once trump gets going, he will be implementing protectionist policies first, quickee an unwind of the surgeon dollar-yen we have seen through november. not everyone is a dollar-yen whole. what are some of the bears saying in this context? >> that is exactly it, isn't it?
,he protectionist idea really but when they comes down to what the actual policies are going to look like, bulls and bears alike are saying we don't know yet. we don't have enough clarity yet. one strategist i was speaking to 115 should be the limit of where we can go based on expectations for what is going to happen. through 115break earlier today, a new nine-month high for dollar-yen, but the there, so rebuffed the first number to watch is 115, but certainly there are seeing it going higher as lower, but people including morgan stanley for example who see it going beyond 120. their call is 130 by the middle much longera
sophie: china's official factory gauge climbs to the highest since july 2014 thanks to a credit-field recovery of smokestack industries. the pmi rose to 51.7. , butrivate gauge with 50.9 economic stabilization is letting policy shift to rein in financial risk from a credit housingd red hot market. opec confounded skeptics and agreed on its first production cut in eight years. iraq arabia, iran, and ridge to their differences. opec will cut production by 1.2
million barrels a day, with saudi arabia alone cutting 486,000 barrels. russia will reduce output. >> during the meeting when we were drawing up the accord, but we still had some difficult administrative questions to resolve, which are essential, the russian energy minister gave the information that he would reduce by 300,000 barrels a day. the fed beige book paints a rosy picture, the report based on anecdotal information between mid-october and 18 november shows continued economic expansion. retail, real estate, and business services saw rising activity with little inflation. related uncertainty persists in some states even after donald trump's victory. investigators will look at whether the plane that crashed in columbia may have run out of fuel.
audio tapes reveal the pilot declaring an emergency just before the disaster and pleading for permission to land immediately. air safety experts say the jet was at the limits of its range. the brazilian soccer team were among 71 victims. global news 24 hours a day powered by more than 2600 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. this is bloomberg. rishaad: sophie kamaruddin there. todi: china's rich will have dig deeper if they want that new ferreri or bentley for christmas. rishaad: a luxury car tax to reduce emissions and save energy ber supercars,e u aren't they? ultraluxury $189,000, soe than
aston martins, lamborghinis, for ferreris.-- it is a tiny percentage of the luxury car market. the ministry of finance is saying the reason is to cut emissions and cut down on energy as well. is such a tiny percent of the market, it is questionable as to its impact. plus, if you are wealthy enough to buy one of these cars, a 10% tax may not put you off in the first place. haidi: we have seen this anti-extravagance crackdown when it comes to what chinese policymakers are doing, but when it comes to new car models being launched, it is still that chinese buyer they are looking too. >> the chinese buyers run across a range, but at the moment, i huge popularity in suvs.
they like bigger cars. we see cars like bentley putting out its first suv, and bentley saying it had strong demand from china for that. surged this year, up 546% in the first 10 months of the year, 35% of total passenger vehicles in china now. then talking about suvs and luxury, this bentley we are looking at right now, this starts at 3.9 8 million yuan, $570,000 without bells and whistles. in termsit is limited of how fast it can go to 301 kilometers per hour. >> it is a heavy car, very spacious, and in the past, carmakers have said they have had to change because they like
big interiors. there are a lot of people in china who like to have a driver and not drive themselves, so they like to have a lot of space. haidi: there you go. let's stay with luxury cars. indeed, the end of using 20% growth in asia for the first 10 months of the year. tell us about what is going on and how bmw is doing. you talk about growth, southeast asia holds a lot of potential for bmw. guest,peak to our next you are betting on markets like vietnam where you are saying -- seeing 40% growth?
is that sustainable going forward? >> good morning. haslinda: good morning. >> i'm pretty optimistic for the next couple of years in vietnam, but there are other countries. i am betting also on the even if the gdp growth in indonesia is not strong at the moment, but the long-term potential, the market is immense. haslinda: what is contributing to this phenomenal growth? it is not just a low base. >> it is starting from a low base, and gdp growth is important. the region has seen constant growth, 5%, 6%, which you don't see anywhere else in the world. haslinda: what are they buying, the higher end, the bigger cars? in asia, a brand reflects your wealth. wealth.flects your
status is important for asians. when you enter the market, we start at a high level, so they talk about seven series, five series, and then the middle class is growing up, and you're talking about the entry models in our range. colleague was talking about how china as slapping attacks on luxury cars costing more than $180,000. do such moves impact sales? how resilient our car sales? definitely impacts the business, at least short term. it takes time for the customers to get used to the new price levels for sure. we are used to it. we will react to it, and i am sure long-term that it will not affect the business much. haslinda: talk of the town right now would be green cars, and bm w is going to it in a big way.
we are not quite ready for green cars, singapore for example. >> it requires a lot of changes. it is customer behavior. we are used to combustion engine cars. we see around the world that it witho be a certain way manufacturers in the government that wants to have the change to give customers certain incentives. it does not always mean financial incentives. we have countries where you can use the bus lane for free or free parking, that encourages people to try our new technology. we are strong believers in the future that will be electric and therefore we are pushing products in the market. haslinda: were looking at what, 10 your timeframe for asia? >> it also depends on the market. in china, you see a lot of electric cars on the road. a lot of local manufacturers pushing into the electric car, but as long as there is not an
incentive by the government, it will take longer, but we see many governments thinking about moving to that direction and giving incentives to the customer. a competitives space, and tesla wants to dominate that space. how are you competing with the likes of tesla in the green car area? happyst of all, i am about any competitor going into that market because it allows us to know the confidence in the , and tesla is obviously doing very good marketing. and you compare figures, they are selling 50,000 cars globally this year. bmw is doing over 2 million, and were planning to sell 100,000 electric or hybrid cars next year already, so i think the market is really growing very fast now. haslinda: what kind of expansion rate are you looking at? >> sorry? haslinda: what kind of expansion rate are you looking at? cars, 30-50
kilometers, and also depending on incentives where now the cars are becoming comparable to combustion engine cars on the price level. haslinda: we are seeing a slow down throughout asia. we know luxury goods like jewelry and watches have been impacted in a big way. what are you seeing in terms of sales? has that been dented given the slowdown across asia? >> i have not seen that in my figures, across the region, 20% growth from our side. as i said, it depends on the market. indonesia is a difficult one for us. haslinda: interest rates are rising though? change, but it will quickly in those markets. as i said, overall, i am confident that southeast asia will see a lot of growth in the future. haslinda: what do you see as the biggest risk?
what is keeping you up at night? >> what is keeping me up is the last-minute changes from the government. haslinda: like china. >> like china. we had one in vietnam yesterday as well. we had one from sri lanka, so these are the things that are keeping us awake where we have to react quickly to fulfill customer demand. haslinda: we thank you for your insights today. there you have it. rishaad: thank you very much indeed for that. haidi: that's all right. i will take it. next, we will take a look at what is behind this reversal of fortunes are hong kong developers. this is bloomberg. ♪
markets: asia". i am haidi lun. rishaad: i am rishaad salamat. there is only one game in town, it's opec. is.ette: it certainly look at this rally in energy producers across the asian region, particularly australia. the energy sector on the asx 200 at its highest level since october 2008. each energy of 10%, santos up almost 13%. it continues with a all players well bid today. energy producers in hong kong up , petrochina and sinopec again a good rally. where we are seeing negativity from this prize deal between opec members is in the airlines, theirrease likely to hurt margins, particularly when they're trying to do cost-cutting to remain competitive, so some weakness coming through.
the japanesee of airlines, air china as well, down 1%. qantas and australia down by 2.6%. new zealand flat at the moment, down earlier in the session though. the oil price, a little dip in the early session after that 9.3% rally following the deal between the opec members, but it is coming back, now of .3%, so getting close to that $50 a barrel mark, even though many in the market were saying we could have seen a substantial fall if a deal had not been agreed upon, so now a lot of analysts scrambling to get their forecast for the crude price in check. picture, a solid day on the asia-pacific equities front, the nikkei going into that lunch break 20 minutes ago, up 2.3 percent, that strong dollar as well weighing on the yen, pushing up the energy players, but also other export
stocks. across the region, some solid strength. the philippines index up by 2%, the shanghai composite up .7 percent, so energy producers getting that solid boost today. haidi: thank you for that. rishaad: property developers in hong kong may need to brace for more declines after the stock rally fizzled in november, shares going from first to worst. ouri: let's get over to asia stocks reporter. why is this happening? what factors are at play here? >> it is a dramatic reversal we are seeing. still assessing the fed rate hike. now things have changed. we had the big duty hike in november that her developers, hikehe odds of a fed rate have increased, so that is
worrying investors. absolutely, what are analysts saying about the outlook are these companies in hong kong? developers have a high portion of by ratings, but some analysts have cut ratings are reduced to the target price. right, of america is developers will underperform the hang seng index over the next five months or so. haidi: what are the longer-term prospects you're looking at? even in an upmarket, the real estate sector dragging .4% when it comes to hong kong stocks. are things looking up or is there more concern? >> one thing to watch out for are the home prices, which was recovering from a six-month correction bottom in march, but that has now stalled since the stamp duty hike, so that is one thing to watch out for.
one interesting things analysts have pointed out is the the oneg yuan could be bright part because it would increase demand from mainland investors. quited: it is serendipitous you are on the set, because ubs came out with a that property sales may slow down sharply next year. we are already seeing that, that is the point. the fed hike and the stamp duty, but even longer-term, there are issues that investors have pointed out, affordability. rishaad: exactly, they don't see any room in china to have an interest rate cut next year either, so there we go. haidi: more things to worry about. rishaad: as if there was not enough already. haidi: thank you so much for that. let's get a check of business flash headlines. rishaad: lufthansa agrees to some demands.
the german carrier proposing a 4.4% raise plus $21,000 bonus per private while dropping a demand for concessions on benefits. shares down after more than 4000 flights canceled. haidi: gopro swinging the acts as it struggles with new cameras and drones, cutting 15% of its workforce and shutting down its entertainment division, a signal that the company is narrow ring its focus. wall street has long been skeptical of their plans to build a media empire. shares have lost half their value this year. threed: amazon introduces new artificial intelligence services allowing customers to create web applications that recognizes what is displayed in photos and recognizes what users are saying. more companies invest in the cloud, spending may rise 17% to $204 billion this year. rishaad: up next, that the
of sinopec, saying mainland companies have what he called tremendous room to improve efficiency. at $60 a barrel to stabilize slumping airport. industrybing the oil as an elephant that will become a dinosaur without reforms. haidi: japan braces for an unusually cold weather time. buy powere forced to from other utilities or risk rolling blackouts if consumers don't conserve electricity. tokyo saw its first november snowfall and more than 50 years last week. reports from china save beijing's last three: mines will be closed in the next four years. so far this year, beijing has close to mines with an annual capacity of 1.8 million tons. ae chinese capital has
history of coal mining the dates back 800 years with sides renowned for high quality. china to india, the economy grew less than expected in the third quarter, putting pressure on the rbi. rishaad: the economy is tipped to slow even further. is this number for the last quarter, less than anticipated, wasn't it? indeed, 7.3 percent was less than anticipated, but the real story will be the october-december quarter revealing whether the de-monetization drive of the prime minister and the impact on the economy. the numberveals could drop as low as 6.5%. background, november 8, the prime minister announced that the de-monetization drive with a hundred and 1000 rupee notes.
the intention was to squeeze out ore currency and black money untaxed wealth, but it has quite not gone to script. while the tent has been noble and many experts agree it is good for the economy in the long term, it has been ridden with fraud. linese seeing long outside of banks and atms have run dry. has has created difficulties for those it did not have access to a formal banking system. , whichs caused hardships is why economists are revising their full-year forecast has low as 7.4% for the full financial year. are expecting this to potentially weigh on the next numbers given that it is too soon for us to see the sustained impact of the de-monetization.
how our markets reacting? they have not done terribly well. >> it is sending out confusing signals. the real story is the attention -- attention shifted away from real questions about the economy. were not talking about jobs anymore. markets have seen their worst november benchmark indices at an hastime low, the rupee taken it on the chin by 2.5% largely due to global factors. rbi will meet and decide on interest rates. there is pressure to cut by 25 basis points. they have already park to their surplus cash, so all this is going on. aboutile, we did speak
the game changer in india due to gdp. great talking to you. haidi: just ahead on "bloomberg markets: asia", angie and dave will update you on the big stories of the day. what do you have for us? , theat is old is new again industry and investment out of china, pmi coming out and showing that it is back to the old industrial playbook, better than expected when it came to manufacturing pmi, but the question is this fight policy moves to redirected to a services-led economy, the credit-fueled economy smokestack industry is gaining omentum. will it continue? we talk about that and efforts to rein in capital outflows. concerns are mounting in beijing over a surge and output causing
divided ration of the renminbi. back to you. rishaad: that is all on the way. right, a quick check of the markets. the nikkei 225 on its lunch break, but it is all about opec. haidi: it is. oil producers, energy gaining in japan, the yen weaker as well. rishaad: there we go. ,articularly true and australia singapore as well, a move to the upside. i rising tide is lifting all the boats. haidi: in hong kong, gains except for property. weakness still across these developers. this is bloomberg. ♪
announcer: from our studios in new york city, this is "charlie rose." jeff: good evening. news,eff glor from cbs filling in for charlie rose, who is traveling. we begin with the economy. president-elect trump has outlined an ambitious economic agenda. he has proposed a massive public spending initiative on roads, bridges, and other infrastructure. he is expected to roll back regulations and introduce tax cuts not seen since the george w. bush era. today, trump announced to cabinet appointments, tom price, a staunch critic of obamacare to lead the health and human services and elaine chow.