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tv   Bloomberg Markets Americas  Bloomberg  December 13, 2016 10:00am-11:01am EST

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vonnie: we will take you from new york to london and cover stories out of moscow and tokyo. here is what we are watching. hesident-elect trump says has a choice for secretary of state. we look at the impact of the selection with the former nato ally commander. mark: all three u.s. averages hit all-time highs. the 20,000 point mark. will the gains continue into next year? then, whoestion with has one of the lowest s&p targets on the street. the fomc begins its
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final policy meeting of the year. will janet yellen say anything about president-elect donald trump? about 30 minutes into the trading day. >> welcome back. a lot of record highs to greet you. the dow s&p 500 and nasdaq are all trading at record highs. the dow is creeping closer to 20,000. we have the dow about 100 points, little more than 100 points away from the marker. on paper, the seventh record close in a row. some real strength for the dow. the dow can gain to 20,000 today, it will be the fastest 1000 point gain ever. we take a look at thousand point gains here. to 11,000 ined just 35, the longest streak here back in 2007 to 12,000. today, it will be a 21 day 1000 point climb. stocks.momentum for
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a big topic to certainly keep an eye on. as for the bonds, interestingly as we have stocks rallying, bonds are rallying a little bit as well. we see this with the today view of the 10 year yield. price traits in verse two yield. this is ahead of the fed meeting tomorrow. we look at the wirp function 30 122.btv we see there is a 100% probability the fed will in fact hike rates tomorrow at the som -- fomc policy decision meeting. will there be surprises? there is an 8% chance the fed could raise rates by 50 basis points. it will be a big day tomorrow. shop -- dow chart that you showed, a wonderful chart pair that is my favorite chart of the day. .t wonderful chart
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we are the highest levels since january. still down just by 3.5%, records for all the three averages there. 14% below the record. we saw in april 2015 how the two have diverged since then. health care, media leading the advanced today. it is all about one bank in europe. italy's biggest lender promises to raise 13 billion euros. it wants to sell off bad loans, boost probability, boost its capital level. the target is four point 7 billion euros in net profit by 2019 with a return on tangible equity above 9% and as part of the three-year strategy, it wants to shed a -- an additional forthousand jobs as it aims annual cost savings. 11% higher today. shares have fallen by 53% in
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2016. capital concerns and profitability concerns, can they be put to bed by today's news? a little later on banks. love this chart. banks covereuropean , the white line is the stoxx 600 banks index. the blue line is market -- financial index, essentially comprising cds's. the white line is rising. the blue line, credit risk is falling. credit risk is falling. credit spreads are tightening. you can see the peaks in credit risks in june around brexit and at the beginning of the year when there were china concerns. bank stocks reached a january high last thursday after jumping 46% since july's almost five
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year low. let's talk about big data today that came out of china. it had a ripple effect across the rest of the world. the stabilization seems to be holding, offering policy makers time to switch from stimulus word curbing financial risk. industrial production climbed 6.2% versus a year earlier in november ahead of estimates. that is the blue line. the white line is retail sales, climbing as well, 10.8% last month, the biggest gain since december. investment increased 8.3% in the first 11 months of the year. the economy, the world's second-biggest, showing signs of stabilization. vonnie: thanks. president-elect donald trump has picked exxon mobil ceo rex tillerson to be secretary of state. a wide variety of reaction. isdoleezza rice says the ceo
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an excellent choice for the job. republican senator of florida says he has serious concerns about rex tillerson's ties to russia. we are joined from trump tower , withn manhattan endorsements of the like from condoleezza rice and dick cheney, is it fair to assume rex tillerson will be a hawkish secretary of state? aboutare learning more his foreign policy. of supportng a lot from condoleezza rice and dick cheney. there are a lot of concerns about his business ties to , his close relationship to vladimir putin and the areian government, and we even hearing republicans like john mccain and marco rubio and lindsey graham who have said they have serious concerns. we expect to hear more about his foreign-policy experience during his senate confirmation hearing. those hearings will be in credibly tough because democrats
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and republicans will ask very tough questions. -- honor to him by the kremlin. an interesting thing for the secretary of state to have received. that a foregone conclusion he will be nominated? will he need some democrats that may be are not lining up for him right now? toluse: well, it would be hard to expect democrats to support picks,sident-elect's given his ties to russia and all of the troubles concerning russian meddling in the election. i think republicans are saying they will give him a chance, a chance to explain what his foreign-policy would be, a chance to explain whether or not he supports russia, whether or not his role of ceo of exxon mobil would translate over to his role as chief diplomat, whether or not he would change some of his policies once he becomes the secretary of state.
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a lot of that will come out during the nomination hearings. right now, expect a very tough nomination experience. reporting outside trump tower there in manhattan, thank you. mark: joining us on the phone is retired u.s. army general wesley clark. general clark, thank you for joining us today. gen. clark: thank you. 'srk: does rex tillerson association with vladimir putin make him unsuitable for the role of secretary of state? gen. clark: i don't think so but i do think congress has to ask tough questions and be reassured that he understands how to put america's interests first in this relationship. it is always a transition coming --m one mind shed to another one mindset to another. speaking on behalf of the united states. rex tillerson is an honorable man, a patriot.
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no reason to believe he will not make the transition. he has got some great international experience and background in leadership. one other thing to note. with the u.s. and russia relations, it is such a long way up. it is not a bad thing to start off with somebody who has a personal relationship with our potential adversary. it is not that that is going to change the balance of interest or the course of the activity, but it is a better place to start than with people who do not know each other or who cannot get along. in that sense, it is a good pick. obviously, there will be tough questions, but i'm intrigued by the choice. mark: is it too early, or premature, to be talking about the unwinding of sanctions toward russia given his nomination? it islark: well, i think
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premature to talk about that because i do not think sanctions auld be --unless there is quid pro quo and that has to be progress in normalizing the situation in ukraine and reversing what has happened in crimea. is exactlyillerson the right person with mr. trump's backing to get that done. ceo has saidxxon if sanctions were to be lifted, the black sea drilling could go ahead. with that inform his treatment of russia at all or would he be completely impartial when dealing with russia? you comek: anytime into government, you bring the knowledge and experiences of the past with you. he will know of an aspect of russia, he will know the geology, the economics, the he will have those particular interests. we have got to give him the benefit of the doubt. this is a smart guy, he has been
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the leader of a huge organization, he knows how to negotiate, how to study the issues, how to present a case. when you give him a different portfolio, he will take that portfolio and we hope he will do a great job with it. he has got the potential to do it. think we will count on congress to ask the right questions and let's give him a chance to do this. it could be a fresh start for our relations with russia. i think we would all like to see that. clark, whatral would your hope before the nato alliance under secretary of state tillerson were he to beacons -- confirmed? now clark: it is essential because the moves that mr. putin made has sent shockwaves throughout europe. people are very concerned and i have been to the baltics. we do not want these governments destabilized, we do not want
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investment cut off. we need that investment in there. i am hopeful mr. trump and mr. tillerson will be able to someure mr. putin, reverse of those policies, turn off the threatening actions that russia has taken, and restore harmony without giving up anything on the part of nato, which is, after all, just a way of reassuring these countries. mark: how do you view president-elect trump's attitude to foreign-policy so far, as patterns emerged with china due to the telephone call with the taiwanese president and the whole one china policy seems to be under debate. how do you view and how do you will president-elect trump go about foreign-policy in the next four years? think president trump will challenge conventional assumptions.
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i think he will push on the boundaries of what conventional thought has been. he will look for different angles to bring advantage to america and strengthen america's interests. that is what he said he would do during the election campaign and we have to take him at his word for that mark:. -- that. mark: thank you. coming up, we will continue the conversation about exxon and rex tillerson. in the next hour, in interview jonathan, blackstone's's global head of real estate. this is bloomberg. ♪
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that is what we call a dreary beauty shot, an oxymoron. live from london and new york, i am mark barton. vonnie: i guess it can be beautiful. not always. this is "bloomberg markets." president-elect donald trump says he intends to nominate next exxon ceo rex tillerson for secretary of state. joining us now on the phone from presidentan bremmer, and founder of the eurasia group. i think one of your most recent tweets on this matter really says it all. tillerson is at respected ceo but the question is, what values or priorities do you want driving u.s. foreign policy? decide those? donald trump or rex tillerson, should he be the nominee? be: i think they will
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similar. let's face it, if tillerson had been appointed by obama as secretary of state, i think it would not have been a problem. i think people would have said, a good counterpoint. ,bama did not know the leaders and obama certainly focuses on a lot of things that tillerson does, multilateralism rule of law and human rights. together, i think they work well. i think the issue will be that trump himself is a very transactional leader who does not care about the values, likes the strongmen. that is very similar to what you would expect from the ceo of a big oil company, even a successful one, perhaps especially a successful one. the russia point is particularly interesting. trump has been surprisingly positive about russia. it is not just obama has messed up the russia relationships and trump wants to normalize it.
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this is despite the fact the cia has now said there is direct evidence of russian hacking the election. trump does not want to see the evidence. the fact that russia itself will be such a political issue, especially when obama ordered a comp has of intelligence review of russian behavior and that comes out, it does not mean he itl not be confirmed but could become a much more politicized question for a lot of people in congress. apart from the confirmation hearings, let's ask the question, will russia be his first priority? huge deal is with russia but also saudi arabia, iraq, and the kurdish areas of the note -- of the north. is it fair to assume he will begin with russia? ian: it is fair to assume if you compare him to any other ceo, his relationship with russia is
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by far the best. it is his biggest relationship, the one putin has respected the most. exxon mobil has been quite savvy oftenrategic, quite directly anti-american kremlin's, we have been very successful. but it is not only their experience across eurasia and ,entral asia, for example across the middle east. i'm in dubai right now. i have been speaking with many leaders today. positivefeel much more that the trump administration, nomination,he someone they have known over time, then you see from the european or asian allies, did badly under obama, and they are hoping that what trump has to say about islam when he was running was just for show.
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look, they will see if they are being naive around that or not. it does not surprise me. political risk is your thing. when it comes to trump globally, what is the best case scenario from a global perspective and what is the worst-case scenario and what are you betting on? scenario ist case he does not do much on foreign-policy. a lot of talk and rhetoric, but actually reality stays fairly similar to where it is right now, and the focus is domestic. he has a lot of progress people -- pro growth people. they focus on infrastructure, the size of the government, simple fine tax code, reducing corporate tax code, civil fine regulation, and people believe in the u.s. economy and that makes them popular.
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the worst-case scenario is what you have seen from him on china, for example, there is a lot of volatility, he does not get rid of his companies, and their are -- that is the way you get trump to do some business with them. able -- could lead to some unexpected confrontation. china in particular, you have got a big problem that really rattles the market spirit one thing you have to recognize is six months ago, the likelihood of the u.s. being involved in a direct military conflict with another major power, it is essentially zero. it is not high cost now, but if you want to talk about worst-case scenarios given what we have seen with trump's conversations with taiwan and iran and his reaction there, you have to recognize that is in the mix as a possibility.
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clearly, the markets have to price that in. mark: this year was the year of trump, brexit, the italian referendum no vote. could 2017, excuse the pun, trump 2016 when it comes to political shocks? beat the impact of trump and the end of the tax americana. it is a geopolitical era, we are now entering a massive geopolitical obsession, -- recession, in the postwar era. i do not think you can beat that. u.s.deterioration of policy influence has been coming pretty steadily since the 2008 financial crisis. trump's's election speeds it up. many things can happen in 2017. , thank you bremmer for joining us today. two markets, another day,
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another record. three major averages hitting all-time highs. the dow inching closer to the 20,000 mark and the s&p is rallying. now 6% since the u.s. election. our next guest is waving a big cautionary flag to investors. later, the target for 2016, -- 2267 with less than two weeks or roughly two weeks ago in the year. >> yes. we are walking a little bit of a tight rope here. ,ooking at the next year or so i think the market is rightly focused on this growth pick up. we have been starved for growth the last few years. that is completely understandable and i agree with that. what we are more focused on is valuations are high -- valuation multiples are high. historically, those multiples have come down. vonnie: we get the rate increased tomorrow.
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there are various interpretations of how the down plot looks, how the projections will look. is there anything that will cause the s&p to go lower now given that we are in a trump rally? ben: as we are moving tonight's year, we see these expectations moving -- no earnings growth in the last year or two to something close to 10%. i think there is upside to that. but historically when the fed has been raising rates, valuation multiples have come down maybe 10% a year. i think that will be somewhat less this time around. it is a pretty benign cycle. is the fed'sthat target. they are doubling the pace of the cycle. i agree with the growth expectations but valuations are higher than normal. i think you have to be a little bit cautious to that. overweight u.s.,
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focused on commodity rather than trade there. you raise japan to neutral. i am looking at europe. you are staying cautious. why is that? what is behind your caution? places are looking for globally where earnings will surprise. positively in the u.s. emerging markets. i suspect they surprise negatively in europe. the only way europe looks attractive or valuations look attractive is if you get a positive surprise to earnings. that looks unlikely to us given the extra narrowly high levels of economic policy uncertainty that you have, historical levels. raised china to overweight and we had dated today confirming the stabilization of the economy but we are approaching the one-year anniversary of chinese jitters. various markets highlighting unease in china yesterday. could we see a repeat of 2016 and early 2017, the china jitters rattling global markets?
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ben: inventor -- investors are very cautious. the margins are extraordinarily low, growth is pretty robust, investors are underweight, currencies are reasonably cheap. , but i think the risk reward for emerging markets next year looks pretty attractive and the selloff you have seen in the last few weeks has maybe given everyoneportunity to who missed the first bit of this rally today. you are still overweight energy and materials. our thanks to ben laidler. still ahead, the fed starts its two-day meeting. when a rate hike is a foregone conclusion, investors will be tuned into janet yellen's comments. ♪
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live from bloomberg world headquarters in london, i'm vonnie quinn.
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>> vladimir putin says he is prepared to meet donald trump at any moment. include -- according to an interview, prudent says there are no problems from our side. putin says the meeting between the two leaders is more likely after trump's inauguration in january. 's nomination to be the next secretary of state is being praised by condoleezza rice, who once held the post. meanwhile, general electric ceo jeff says tillerson has a ground-level view of the nation's most important relationship. not everyone is so enthusiastic. republican senator marco rubio of florida says he has serious concerns about tillerson. rubio earlier expressed reservations about his relationship with vladimir putin. in syria, government troops are almost in complete control of aleppo. it was once a rebel stronghold.
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the fighters that have not fled are caught in an enclave. a victory in aleppo would give the government of bashir al-assad control of all of syria's's largest cities. it is christmas in orbit. arrivedse cargo ship -- it also said there are christmas presidents for two americans, three russians, and one frenchman on board. news 24 hours a day powered by more than 2600 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. this is bloomberg. that.: thank you for market movers, including the industries themselves, with abigail doolittle. abbott: one of the big stories is that we may see the dow climbed to 20,000. earlier, the dow was 84 points away from the milestone.
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with this is the possibility we will see the fastest point climb in the dow ever. we see a look passed and that back in 1999, it took the dow 35 days to climb to 11,000. this is during the tech bubble and the longest stretch was in 2007, recovery out of the tech bubble to 12,000. right now, we are on day 22 from 19,000. will it be the fastest? it could be. two weeks ahead, it could still be a record thousand point increment for the dow. one of the top percentage pointers for the dow, it is pretty bullish. five reasons to buy the shares of apple, including that iphone eight super cycle we have all been hearing about, helping the s&p 500 and the nasdaq as well. we also have amazon and facebook. we see a recovery of the stocks after it was hit pretty hard
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after the election. both stocks are still down but again on the way to a recovery today. we are looking at the casino stocks after it came out that checks are showing gaining revenue is on pace to grow in the month of december, and this follows the decline going into august. we have seen a bit of a turn for in august,evenue september, november, and now we are looking at december. this could help the stocks climb higher p roth three casino stocks are up 30% or more this year. not so bad. vonnie: that is a win. abigail, thanks. as abigail said, u.s. major averages are hitting the decisions p are traitors pricing and 100% of a rate hike. what fed chair janet yellen will conference ands pass future hikes, and
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president-elect donald trump. joining us is bloomberg news executive editor of economics dan maas. will havenet yellen an opportunity to give markets a little more. it seems like markets have placed in an increased tomorrow. traders expecting an increase. what will janet yellen say, given any fiscal assumptions? >> we cannot plug in any fiscal assumptions. have, the assertions become hard policy and then they have to pass. god knows what the sausage looks like when it comes out. that is precisely why she will not want to draw on this on any -- in any great detail. a operate in any information they have in the forecast in front of them, which most economists think will warrant about two increases next year. vonnie: what will she say when she is asked?
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>> she will probably say we will be watching for an array of indicators including fiscal policy. she probably cannot do much more than that. mark: what will trump tweet afterwards given his criticism of both fed chair janet yellen and during the campaign trail at the fed's hike rate tomorrow? and 2018, in 2017 what do we expect the president-elect to say? a great question. he obviously retained this phone by his side. one thing on the broader relationship between the president-elect in the fed, he has been a critic, as were other republican candidates. once presidents get into office, they tend to like low interest rates. as a year of diversions, that is what -- how we were sold
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in 2016. the fed would hike a number of times with japan loosening, with the ecb loosening. it did not quite turn out like that. will 2017 be the year of bank divergence? dan: this has ended up being the year of sustainability. if you look at what the boj has done, they switch from aggressive qe to really targeting a point on the yield curve p are the bank of england said it could go either way. whether you call it a tape or the fed is increasing the forecast. they were not forced to cut again. isn we look back, this pretty critical, the most critical time since 2008 and 2009. vonnie: presidents like low
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interest rates with the caveat that they do not run inflation. is not a foregone conclusion that president trump will be happy with higher rates. dan: but no one is saying that rates will go back to the levels they are. one thing that was missed in the whole postelection narrative about a new paradigm is that only a few months ago, we were talking about permanently lowered mutual interest rate, the rate at which a central bank policy peeked through the course of the cycle. that is still coming down. we are not going back to the vulcan area in terms of inflation or vonnie: policy. dan maas. we will have to check in with you again. dan moss. we will have to check in with you again. mark: how the donald trump presidency will --
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this is bloomberg. ♪
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vonnie: you are watching bloomberg and i am vonnie quinn. mark: i am mark barton. decline in the pound leading to a surge in inflation. one step closer to meeting antitrust -- after.ibya five years the country is still in turmoil. inflation in the united kingdom, rose the fastest in more than two years.
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an increase of an annual rate of leadingnovember carrie to higher import prices. the recent deal to cut production will likely lead to higher energy costs. goldman sachs's president and ceo told that saying goodbye is hard and he is leaving the giant and a strong position next he accepts donald trump economic policy adviser. today, for a variety of reasons, capital, regulatory, the landscape has changed dramatically. we are in an unique position as we ever have been in a competitive landscape. i look forward in the future years of goldman sachs. it is as exciting as i have ever seen it. mark: he will head the national internet -- the council to help
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coordinate and develop the president positive economic program. -- a japaneseket company p are for the first time, they have shorted the motor maker. the firm reports that shares fall as much as 52% from yesterday's close. highlye accused of using aggressive accounting. the property says it has a totally different view. miller's by s&p business for $7.8 billion. that brings it about one step closer to meeting antitrust requirements. earlier, it agreed to buy a be interest. context and background
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on issues of interest. the 2011 uprising that led to qaddafi's eventual death, country beope the turned into an international pariah and lower investment. fighting-- between between doing governments. the turmoil a loud groups like islamic state to take root. here is the situation. on one side of the divide is control of the capital in mid-2014. on the other side are lawmakers that reload it'd in the east. they are allied with a renegade general claim for the 2012 death in benghazi. islamic state tax both feuding sides. u.s. airstrikes have diminished the area under u.s. control. here is the background. oil -- the 10th largest reserve.
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outputs, about one third of pre-2011 levels. they transform the company of 6.4 million to one of the -- into one of the wealthiest. foundab spring uprising ground in libya, shedding the violence that led to nato airstrikes on gaddafi's forces. here is the argument. given the transnational threat, a number of countries have pushed the idea of some kind of intervention. 21 countries, including the u.s., said in may they are willing to report an arms for west by a unity government. libya parties the would eventually use the weapons on the other, worsening turmoil. you can learn more at and i quick. mark: u.s. stocks are trading at
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all-time highs ahead of the fed decision tomorrow. have 100% highs. joining us now, chief executive of stocks and head of index services. thank you for joining us today. looks like it is uncertainty that rates will be raised tomorrow. does that mean it is an uncertainty we will see further upside from the financials, the s&p financials index? going to continue to rise since the trump presidency? >> what we're seeing is a different performance in the market than what we are expecting. interest rates going up usually has a negative effect on bonds and the performance of fixed and usuallyities also have a significant effect on the currency aspect. four months on companies that arrive -- derive a specific portion of revenues domestically.
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how is the regulatory landscape in the financial sector, how will that change under president-elect trump? >> it is not for us to say. we provide tools for investors to provide the best possible , different economic scenarios and market scenarios. we will make sure our job is index provider, make sure investors have the best possible tools to face the different market conditions. what we have done is we're seeing a significant diversions in the market, mostly driven by the market. u.s., aucture in the
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significant component of utilities. that component drags down the underperformance compared to what would be the effect the policy has on the u.s. economy. vonnie: they are pretty europe centric, i would imagine. is there ever a potential to get forecast -- >> we caf au lait on a yearly basis. it is linked by the number they currently are standing. some of those sooner or later will be used by the strategies. it is not a straightforward process. it usually takes a lot of time. the stoxx 600's stock in a
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20 point range in july until only recently. we are at levels we have not seen since january. has the stoxx 600 finally got wind in its sales? tteo: we have seen a significant increase in the past week. this is a year where asset classes offer significant outflows. european equities down in terms of total, and is driven by the volatility we are seeing an significant uncertainty where seeing in europe. it is clearly adding to some of that. vonnie: it has been a pleasure to speak to you. the labour party here is quite to make its voice heard. my interview next. this is bloomberg.
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mark: this is bloomberg markets and i am mark martin. i just sat down for a speech he gave here at bloomberg he highlighted how harmful a brexit would be for the economy. here is our interview. >> i think some of the statements the prime minister indicated how brexit conference speech was interpreted by those in brussels, indicating the u.k. to come out of the customs union, and to be very detached and remote from the eu. there have been indications that the government is heading for a hard brexit. mark: more red white and blue. have been different versions and i except that. aboutcent discussions
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paying for single market access or transition arrangements suggests a more thoughtful approach. got,roblem we have all what it is actually trying to achieve, all we can do is interpret the signs and signals. that is not the way to start. mark: what satisfies you in terms of revealing the plan? it ultimately means the prime minister has revealed her intentions. what satisfies your level of revelation when it comes to that? >> people say they need to know what the position is on the customs union and what the position is on transitional arrangements. it is important the parliamentary have enough information to do their jobs. not much point in parliamentary
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scrutiny. the office of budget will need toy forecast economically what the future holds. there needs to be enough detail to let us know what is the direction of travel to allow the relevant people's to their jobs. detailedely except the should be confidential and nothing should be revealed. goshen nation all strategy. >> i have always accepted that nothing should be done to undermine the chances of getting the best possible deal. i do not think it is sensible to suggest that we should all be kept in the dark about the basis until march 2019, the only other alternative. looking ahead to your speech today, which they read prior to it, they said you are
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looking for an excuse to block brexit. voters should not trust to deliver on brexit. you really are determined to deliver on brexit. >> the cornerstone of my speech was to set out why it would be wrong for the labour party for the process. to do so would not put labor in , very divided in the country. future.e of the is anyone going to make comments -- they want to read it carefully before a further comment. it is clear i am saying labor needs to be playing for the future of our country. mark: are you on the pitch?
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admittedly,esult, he didn't do as well as you had anticipated. it has become sidelined by the conservative party, by you, and the liberal democrats. >> obviously the elections were not good and i will not pretend otherwise hear the suggestions that we should simply up one side or the other, to represent the 52%, or only represent the 48%, that is what the other parties are doing. the conservative party is for the 52%. liberal democrats, but neither of them have got anything to say to the other half of the country. party that wants to
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govern the country has got to be capable of speaking to both deep divide. of course it is a difficult position for the labour party and of course it is more nuanced but it is the right position to say what do we need to do to bring the country together? we know it is divided in it is obvious that society is divided here the labour party is the itty that is capable because has voters, representatives in both 48 and 52. the u.k. shadow secretary. here is a check on stocks rising. look at that, green across the street -- across the screen. the closes next. close is next.
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mark: it's midnight in hong kong, 30 minutes left in the trading day in europe. bonnie: this is the european close.
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mark: we are going to take you from new york to london. we are going to cover stories out of london and milan. an interview with blackstone real estate had nothing great coming right up here. we will talk about his meetings with donald trump as well as his stewardship of blackstone's massive real estate for folio. -- portfolio. vonnie: an interview with morgan stanley did we will get his views on donald trump and the banking industry. taking decisive act him to shore up its problems. it is cutting costs and will it be enough?


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