tv Bloomberg Best Asia 2016 Bloomberg December 26, 2016 2:00am-3:01am EST
♪ angie: coming up on "bloomberg best," the stories that shaped the year in business across asia. china's economy showed signs of stability even as growth sometimes seemed to sputter. >> i think we have a hard landing in the stock market already. >> the old economy drivers are back in action. it is the new drivers that are stalling. angie: japan's leaders went back to the stimulus well again and again with mixed results. >> we have to continue our accommodative monetary policy. >> i think japan has become this sort of test tube for the rest of the world. angie: it was an eventful year for many asian companies, from
smashing successes to corporate crises. >> this is a huge deal. >> it is a combination of one debacle after another. angie: and asia made its mark on global markets as economists reckoned with the region's ups and downs. >> when the leaders say we want 6% growth, they get 6% growth. >> you can't have your balance sheets grow faster. angie: join us for a look at the best of 2016 straight ahead on "bloomberg best." ♪ angie: hello, i'm angie lau. welcome to a special edition of "bloomberg best". on this program, we will have the most important business news, analysis, and interviews from across asia we brought to you on bloomberg television in 2016. as the year began, china was the focus of concern for investors around the world.
worries about slowing growth, a sliding currency, and an economy in transition. the anxiety came to a head with a market rout in january. >> new year, a new roller coaster it seems, the chinese markets in particular. trading had to be closed early. >> do you think the circuit breakers that are designed to mitigate volatility actually contributed to it? >> certainly some of the market says it did intensify selling. >> china is having a night. meddling in their markets once again. sources say the nation has taken steps to support equities and currency following yesterday's 7% tumble on the shanghai composite. >> we had sweeping intervention today by the government, intervening to shore up e stock market. they bought financial stocks. they intervened for currency. the central bank intervened with 20 billion u.s. dollars to put into the system to keep a lid on
borrowing costs and to offset capital flow, which is leaving at an accelerated pace. >> you're not seeing a hard landing, right? >> i think we had a hard landing already and we had a hard landing in commodities. we might have a hard landing in the economy. >> can the chinese government soft land its economy without a big disaster? the answer is yes. >> china's stocks regulator is said to have called an unscheduled meeting as the worst start for chinese markets in two decades shows no sign of letting up. the reference rate by the most since august and a forced global exchanges to shutter early. >> china has second thoughts as it suspends the circuit breaking rules that have not kept investors from panic selling chinese stocks. >> do the chinese authorities have control of their capital markets right now? >> in the short-term, i don't think they do. by the short time, i mean in the next few days. the chinese market is not a real stock market. it's not connected to
fundamentals, either profits or the economy. because no one knows what the proper level is, it's a casino. >> chinese stocks in a bear market for the second time in seven months. down 20% from the december high. >> my take on china is china has a serious challenge and set of challenges to convert from exports and construction stimulated by easy money to domestic consumption of goods and services. so, yes, it is a serious problem, but is it something easily surmounted or is it a disaster? people have gone from the first to the second. ♪ angie: january's worst-case scenario did not come to pass. but throughout the year, the financial world kept a close eye on economic data coming out of china. let's take a look back at some of the most significant numbers. ♪ >> a day of dramatic headlines
with china dominating the news. the pboc governor broke his long silence. what did he say and what was significant about it? >> his key message is we are not going to push the currency down. we do expect volatility along the way. especially against the moving u.s. dollar. we can only take him at his word. we have seen it go by. >> china is signaling it's open to more easing. china said they have multiple policy instruments to address any downside risk. >> he said there is scope to ease, but we know that. we know there is a need to ease. interest rates, real rates are on the way up. the real debate and what was not answered, if you will, was how they plan to do that. >> the chinese central bank cutting the reserve requirement to 17%, 50 basis points
reducing the amount of capital banks need a hold in reserve. this hot on the heels of one of the biggest months for new credit growth in china. is that a story? >> you are completely correct. this is both a significant surprise and a significant move. >> we had abysmal trade day out of china this morning showing exports falling to the lowest level since february of 2009 during the global financial crisis. >> this latest figure out of china in february, year-over-year, there are seasonal distortions, but still a significant number of exports down 25.4% year-over-year. this is the eighth consecutive month that we have seen falling exports year over year. >> the latest eco-data from china likely to keep more pressure on the leadership as they try to beat this year's growth target of 6.5%. industrial output and retail sales growth both slowed in period.uary-february
>> he did project this sense of calm at this annual press conference on saturday. what message is he trying to send? he said no rush to buy u.s. dollars. >> yeah, he did say that. he is basically saying that china's economy is steady as she goes and they have their hand firmly on the tiller, and not to panic. >> first quarter gdp was in line with forecasts. property sectors rebound and a surge in credit. industrial production was ahead of estimates. >> that certainly plays to the stability narrative. it is a big bumper headline. it is the old playbook. it is all about credit. it is the old playbook, debt and spending, and that is what has kept them going along quite nicely in the first quarter. the question is how long will it last? house is thinkable will its growth be using these tactics? sustainable will its growth be using these tactics? >> the chinese manufacturing gauge as we mentioned a few times, a signal for improving conditions in the country's manufacturing sector for the third month. recent evidence of stabilization in the world's second-largest
economy, showing improving conditions for the manufacturers. >> it is quite interesting. it could prove to be one of the more interesting developments in the year. >> not so weak is china's growth in the third quarter, mainly driven by the so-called old economy. the latest survey from the theese beige book says government's attempt to wean them off manufacturing resources may have stalled. >> the old economy drivers back in action. the property measure and also commodities. but it is the new drivers that are stalling. retail, services, transport. >> china's economy stable in the third quarter, putting the full-year gdp target well within reach and paving the way for policies to rein in excess credit. >> china's policymakers have a little bit of time in which they can start making some of the painful changes which are needed to prop up stability in the financial sector and to rebalance the economy away from the state owned enterprises and towards a larger role for the private sector. ♪ angie: later in the program, we
will play back some of the year's most interesting interviews on the topic of china with insight from christine lagarde, mark mobius, larry fink, and others. plus, disney's biggest foreign investment ever, a huge bet on the chinese consumer made headlines in 2016. coming up next, we turn to japan. abe and kuroda trying all sorts of stimulus to make a positive impact, including negative interest rates. >> in theory, negative interest rates should spurn some sort of action, but people put their money in the mattress. >> this is bloomberg. ♪
sweeping economies. is there more to come? >> i think there is more to come, jonathan. if you look at the rba statement, inflation will remain too low going forward. >> treasurer scott morrison delivered a budget he says is focused on jobs and growth after the rba cut rates for the first time in eight years. >> the government has come up with a plan to reduce the deficit from 37 billion in the current year to 6 billion by 2019 or 2020 but it relies on optimistic assumptions about the price of some commodities, including iron ore, and growth forecasts as well. >> australia's central bank have cut rates, they hope to counter disinflation and underemployment. >> they cut interest rates again today. they cut earlier in may. they have cut 50 basis points this year. >> the rba keeping rates unchanged at 1.5%.
decision wasn't really in doubt, it is the statement that is key here. >> the statement said keeping the cash rate of 1.5% is consistent with meeting the cpi target over time. this is also consistent with what the new rba governor philip lowe has been saying. he described the rba as not being inflation nutters. angie: monetary policy loomed large in 2016, and japan's central bank may some of the biggest headlines. governor kuroda promised the boj would continue to take bold action to combat deflation. but few expected the bank to move as dramatically as it did in the january meeting, setting the tone for an intriguing year for the world's third-largest economy. >> the vote 5-4. so a very slim margin to adopt negative interest rates. now they have also delay the timing of when they think they can reach this 2% inflation target. >> the surprising thing is when
they did this is because there is a chance they pass along risk at some point. the other thing that is surprising is there are suspicions that the boj is running into resistance buying bonds. if you lower the deposit rate, it's even harder for the boj to pry these bonds free from the banks holding these bonds, so it might actually make quantitative easing more difficult. >> look jan. my goodness. it's as if the boj -- i mean the boj has simply lost control. >> negative interest rates should spur some sort of action, but in reality, people put the money in the mattress, take money out of the banking system, and it doesn't make them go out and spend. >> the bank of japan holding the benchmark interest rate unchanged at -.1%. >> japan has become a test tube for the rest of the world. they are the people who keep trying stuff and not doing that well. we can all see what happens. they didn't manage to get their
economy going despite early versions of qe because the government doesn't do enough. i don't sense any real way in which this is going in the right direction. >> the yen burst through 110 after the bank of japan unexpectedly keeping its stimulus program unchanged. >> governor kuroda in a press conference in the last few hours underscored the fact that there is more that can be done and he will do more as needed, including with negative rates. but negative rates just took effect in january and he wants to give more time for that to have an impact. >> the prime minister, this is a big deal, folks. he will retract a national sales tax. >> clearly the virtuous cycle that abe has been talking about where corporate profits rise and that leads to higher wages and that spurs more consumption. it's not happening. this is his attempt to kickstart that with a boost to consumer spending. >> we are anxiously awaiting this number.
it has just come through. no change in the annual rise in monetary policy from the bank of japan. >> the thinking among economists we have spoken to is that there are reasons to delay both internally, given that they are trying to allow the negative rate policy to gauge the effect of the negative rate policy on the economy. and secondly, there is an election coming up in july. >> we turn now to japan. government bonds have set another record. is there no end to this? i assume this is a flight to safety, but what is causing this? >> it's all about the rush to safety. it is on the back of the u.k. vote to leave the european union. it is worried about the italian bank situation. china's growth. and a lot of the money pouring in the japanese bonds. >> the japanese prime minister
shinzo abe has promised swift and bold economic measures after winning a convincing victory. does this put him in a stronger position to move forward? >> it certainly does. it looks like he's heading for a two thirds majority in the upper house. we have to see in the months and weeks ahead if he will knuckle down and do more economic reforms. >> the bank of japan keeping key monetary tools unchanged. in addition, the central bank remaining unchanged due to the uncertainty of inflation. >> the steps they took they were pretty minimal. they had to do something. they did the bare minimum. i think the real dark horse here is the conference of policy review that governor kuroda instructed his staff to start working on. we're really at a crossroads here. does he let the government take the running for a while or does he double down and hit the gas pedal even more? >> economic stimulus plan will increase spending by $45 billion this year, that is according to a draft of being discussed by
prime minister's ruling party today. >> they are calling it a ¥28 trillion stimulus package. this is not that. the markets are disappointed. 7.5 trillion in new spending, about $74 billion. >> the japanese economy grew less than expected in the three months ending in june. business spending contracted. second straight quarter. >> it is a gloomy and cloudy morning in tokyo. these numbers will not help. it really puts the the onus on prime minister abe to get his stimulus package in gear. >> the governor says the base target which was previously fixed at a manual increase of ¥80 trillion may now fluctuate in the short term as always he makers control that yield curve. >> the main focus is on the yield curve. they don't want the yield curve
to flatten. as far as the boj's concerned, they have come out and said a flat yield curve is bad for the economy. >> the japanese economy is recovering, but moderately, and monetary policy have been implemented. it has had impact on the economy, and the economy has been recovering, but still, we have not yet achieved 2% inflation target. so we have to continue our accommodative monetary policy. >> the boj left policy unchanged while cutting the inflation forecast for the next fiscal year. governor kuroda does not see the 2% target being met before april 2018. that is the month his term as governor of the central bank ends. how do you described governor kuroda's credibility? >> people were not expecting the banks forecast to be realized in the time horizon that the bank was predicting.
i think today's announcement frankly does not really come as a huge surprise to anybody. >> kuroda stands pat, and the bank of japan capping a momentous year with an upgrade to its outlook on the economy, but keeps its yield curve and asset purchase program's unchanged. >> they are saying that the recovery continues for the japanese economy. now they are looking at a pickup in exports, also an improvement in business sentiment. ♪ angie: coming up on bloomberg best asia year in review, disney brings its magic to mainland china, and the new park looks like a hit. >> the prospects for this business look really strong. >> this is bloomberg. ♪
emerged as the top markets for the firm at the epicenter of the panama paper leak. accounting for a third of offshore and shell company set up worldwide. what is the latest from china? >> just the significance of the china market in terms of setting up these offshore entities. as you said, it's almost one third. they set up 16,000 offshore companies for chinese and hong kong business people and relatives of political leaders in some cases. it is attracting a lot of attention. this is there most important market set up in 1989 in hong kong. they made good use of their presence here, it seems. ♪ angie: welcome back to "bloomberg best." i'm angie lau.
our review of the year of business in asia continues with a u.s. company's big bet on china. disney's long-awaited shanghai theme park opened its doors in 2016 amid uncertainty of the strength of chinese consumer demand. what the $5.5 billion project resonate with china's growing middle class? the answer became clear immediately. >> it is the hottest ticket in town, disney's new theme park shanghai sold out within hours. the new park is disney's first in mainland china and is three times the size of hong kong disneyland. 50 million visitors expected to walk through the gate. >> the ceo of disney, bob iger, said this is as important to disney as opening up orlando was a generation ago. so disney has certainly been there with its films in the past but it has not been there with parks and resorts, which have historically been a fantastic business for disney. >> this is one of a thousand performers being put through their paces before disney throws open the doors on the most ambitious venture to date, shanghai disneyland. >> i feel proud and honored when i tell people i work for disney.
>> the action sequences come naturally. he trains in martial arts. it is playing to the crowd that dunstan. >> the challenge isn't really about the stunts. the challenge is about interaction with the audience and how to make the audience happy. that is the most difficult thing. >> in terms of china that works to our advantage, clearly establishing a move from the manufacturing to a service economy is very important. we benefit by that and we contribute to it. one of the reasons we got permission to do this is the nature of the business, the number of the jobs we create in the service sector directly and indirectly, and the message that it sends. 17 years, it has
cost $5.5 billion in terms of disney unlocking the gate to the shanghai version of the magic kingdom. >> 600,000 visitors just in a test run phase of this over six weeks. they're hoping to get 10 to 12 million visitors a year. you can see a sunken ship behind me complete with noise effects. cannons. the kids love that one. just behind, you can make out, is the disney castle. they are proud of that. this is the biggest castle they have ever built, disney. >> give us a sense at this point early on if you are on track with what the plans were for shanghai at this point. >> shanghai was more than a labor of love, it's one of the most important steps the company has ever taken. one of the biggest investments we have made outside the united states in the most populous city in the most populous country. it opened flawlessly. the reaction to it in china has been great. the visitation has come from all over china. it has taken great advantage of shanghai as a tourist destination, particularly in the summer. well over a million people have
visited the park since it opened on june 16, and the prospects for this business look really strong, so much so, that we have already broken ground with expansion. we feel great about it. angie: there is still plenty left to come on our bloomberg best year in review. we will revisit some of 2016's most compelling company stories from didi's smooth ride to the samsung note 7 flameout. and how the election of donald trump has already had an impact on asia. up next, influential leaders share their thoughts on doing business in asia in 2016. >> china welcomes foreign investments. so other countries should also welcome chinese investors. >> this is bloomberg. ♪
salamaat.ad volatility caused by global uncertainty was a consistent theme for investors during the past year, and along with brexit referendum and the u.s. presidential election, concerns over growth in china regularly rattling the market. we spoke with business and political leaders and got expert perspectives on the world's second-biggest economy. here is a sampling of those conversations. >> china recently had its national people's congress. there was some concern that the chinese government is too focused on stimulus and growth at the expense of reforms. what is your take on that? >> we believe china will continue to grow, number one, and our assessment at the moment is 6.3%. we have to assess the decisions that have just been made by the chinese authorities to factor in those decisions, and see whether we forecast a little more growth, possibly.
>> how concerned are you on china right now given what the government has set in terms of reiterating its commitment to 6.5%? are you confident they can? >> a lot of people don't understand the nature of the chinese political structure and economic structure. it is a planned economy, so when leaders say we want 6% growth, they get 6% growth. it may be in highways that go nowhere and buildings that are unoccupied, but they get that growth. now they have come to the realization there has been a lot of waste. they do want to move to a market economy. economy willket moreate resources
effectively. but they are not there yet, so i am really not worried because the party, the government has control of some of the key elements such as currency, such as controls and so on and so forth. i think they are in good shape in that sense. >> i would give the chinese leadership some of the best marks in trying to transform their society. we are in the fourth year of the xi 10-year plan to reorient china away from manufacturing, away from an export dependent economy to a much more resilient domestic economy, a service economy. that is a very hard thing to do. it takes many countries 50 years to do that, and countries generally have recessions occur during the transition.
so to say they overstepped in formal policy behaviors, the market is saying that china's dependency on debt and leverage of the balance sheet is a continuation of investing in some of the unproductive state-owned companies and not a good long-term solution. i would say indeed it is not a good long-term solution. hopefully, this is a short-term remedy and they get back to the basics of trying to build a better domestic economy. >> are you worried about the debt pile in china? >> we have to be. we all have to be worried about it. keep in mind, if the economy continues to grow six plus percent, you can't grow at 6% and have your balance sheets grow faster. so in the future, i would prefer to see the economy growing 6% with at the same time some form of deleveraging. >> what do you make of the market reaction with what we saw with the currency over the last few months? investors overreacting, do you think? >> first of all, what the world saw was something that was confusing and not well communicated, and it gave rise
to fears that china's economy was in a weaker place than it appears to be, or as perceived by policymakers to be. china's economy is not as interconnected to the global financial system as the u.s. and european economies. >> that will surprise some people to hear. >> what is interconnected are the flows of imports and exports. if you are an exporter of an developing emerging-market and you think growth is dropping even faster than it is, that has a huge impact on what you think the future looks like. >> the fact is china exports more than it imports. aside from manufacturing, there is also the service industry, as well as many other channels of income. but people can only see the debt in a state-owned enterprise when they need to recognize that
china is a big exporter and the inflow from foreign exchanges are also positive for china. exports exceed imports, that is a fact. a lot of income is also generated from the service industry, so in the long run, china's economy looks good. >> and there are a lot of chinese companies who are looking overseas to acquire businesses, but they keep getting shut down by regulators, including yourself. what is the impact for chinese companies in the future? how do they fix this? >> it needs to be fair. china welcomes foreign investments, so other countries should also welcome chinese investors. >> this is a massive
undertaking, to transition the economy, but you can see, the research side, the consumer side, the tech side is going very, very strongly. the chinese firms are beginning to invest in lower-wage economies in the same way that other businesses used to invest in china. they are going into vietnam, myanmar, africa, and effectively replicating the stage of development that they went through in other countries and building infrastructure to create trade flows, trade corridors. as ever when you're trying to do something very ambitious, you worry that something could interrupt it, but i think china has managed it extraordinarily successfully so far. >> how many nonperforming loans do think chinese banks have?
>> you can see what they report. many think there may be other elements of investment companies yet to be recognized. i think it is less relevant what the content is to how it's managed. managing impairment is about managing it in a smooth way without causing disruption. china has not borrowed heavily from the rest of the world, so it is an internal issue. can you manage it without causing disruption and unrest and economic slump? so far they have done it. i am relatively confident they will continue to do it. i think their model is different from ours and it is difficult to say they won't do it in the same way it has been done in the u.s. or europe, but they know what they have to do to manage the recycling of capital efficiently. but they have the capacity to do it. ♪
♪ >> we think we will double our account in this region and put our businesses in equities, and fixed income, asset management, investment banking across the board. we plan to expand the service companies that are giving outsourced functions to our group. i think china is a great opportunity like it has been for the last 20 years. >> apple ceo tim cook is setting his sights on this massive market called india.
during cook's multi-day trip to the country, he will be unveiling a development center and introducing an accelerator program in bangalore. >> india is one of the world's fastest smartphone markets, and apple wants a piece of the pie. >> is there a straight line to tech ipo success? so far it's looking that way for line, the japanese messaging company that went public today. is the biggest technology ipo so far this year. >> having raised $1 billion in this ipo, what are you going to do with this money? >> first of all, we are going to focus on investing and strengthening our services, service is everything to us. rishaad: there were a number of asian companies in the spotlight in 2016. let's have a look back at some of the most interesting stories of the year. >> sharp is surging this morning as foxconn makes a case for a takeover. sharp is also talking to a fund
and may need another month to make a decision. >> sharp has five or six businesses. i can't imagine anyone wanting to own any of those. all their businesses are losing a ton of money. >> shares in sharp have tumbled more than 16% after the past two days after foxconn said it would buy the troubled electronics maker and then postponed the deal. >> foxconn issued a terse statement saying new material information has come to light from sharp and they require more time to discuss it. both companies have said nothing else, but our sources are telling us the point of contention is something called contingent liabilities. these are costs related to potential or possible restructuring and layoffs. >> is there a risk now that the deal could fall apart? >> we are coming up on a month now since sharp's board approved the proposed deal from foxconn. it is 26 days today.
it is a growing list of issues that foxconn is going through before it signs this definitive agreement to proceed with the deal. there are reports out there that foxconn may try to decrease the amount of money it is putting into sharp in additional equity, that was originally proposed as ¥489 billion, so we may see that number go down a bit. rishaad: this is a drawn out pursuit of sharp winning a big discount on the original price agreed in february. the final bill at $3.5 billion. the deal said to be signed on saturday. he managed to get a big discount. >> yeah, that month of wrangling and pushing the deal to its breaking point was not for nothing. he is getting about a ¥100 billion on sharp. they are paying $.88 per share. >> chinese ridesharing app didi chuxing has received a $1 billion strategic investment from apple. tencent and alibaba are also
investors in didi. it operates in more than 400 cities in china, compared to uber which is only in about 50. >> this is a huge deal. we reported that didi was looking to raise $2 billion, but apple coming in and making the single largest deal investment ever comes as a huge surprise for us. this came out of left field. >> sources are telling bloomberg that uber's china rival may be considering a new york ipo as soon as next year. we have got our tech reporter lulu chen who broke the story. this is a blockbuster. >> it comes on the heels of them raising more than $1 billion from apple, bringing the total amount of this fundraising to $3 billion. a valuation of about $26 billion.
>> what this this mean for uber? >> uber said they want to hold off the ipo as long as possible. it means didi will race ahead of them to the u.s. for an ipo, so they are reportedly targeting the same pool of investors at the same time. >> chinese rideshare company didi has agreed to buy uber's chinese subsidiary. it is a big and complicated deal. please tell us how this will work. >> based on the announcement, our understanding is didi will acquire uber china and form a new entity valued at $35 billion according to our sources. >> let's turn to nintendo's newest game, pokemon go, because it is sweeping the nation and nintendo's stock has skyrocketed. >> how viral this game has gotten is insane and if you go
around new york you will see multitudes of people playing this game. >> nintendo's new game has their stock soaring, lifting the company's market value by $7.1 billion. >> nintendo shares falling the most since 1990, hopes that pokemon go would revitalize the stock are disappearing as investors realize the company's limited stake in the game. >> nintendo said it was no secret they had only a 13% economic interest in pokemon go, and investors should have known this all along. rishaad: samsung smashing first-quarter profit estimates, the company's early release of the note 7 smartphone paying off. stealing the march on apple? >> what samsung has done is take advantage of a lull in the iphone release cycle, releasing its premium smartphone a month early. so far, it seems to be tracking well globally, but we will see. the iphone 7 is coming in a few months. how wellhey can maintain momentum. rishaad: does this signal a turnaround? >> one thing that apple has shown is that nobody is immune to the broader smartphone and pc downturn. we will have to see. >> samsung is officially
recalling about one million galaxy note 7 phones after the u.s. consumer product safety commission found they were catching fire due to a battery flaw. >> samsung clearly handed apple a gift by having this massive, embarrassing recall just as the new iphone models were launching. iphone and samsung in developed markets like the united states really trade off market share, so you have to think that the iphone 7 line is going to pick up some market share from samsung. >> samsung saying it is ending the production of the galaxy note 7 overnight, recalling the galaxy note 7. >> it is the combination of one debacle after another. basically, when they say in the -- when they say ending production, they are scrapping
the note 7, which means they will restart and maybe come out with another version, hopefully in time for the holidays, but i doubt that. i don't think most analysts believe that can happen, so this is a huge blow for samsung. >> analysts are trying to understand what this cost samsung financially. >> a report from credit suisse that halting the note 7 could translate into $17 billion in lost sales. can samsung absorb this hit? >> what is hard on samsung is the fact that this is their flagship phone. although i would point out that the note itself is probably around 5% of sales in any gin quarter, 10% of their mobile phone sales, and so i think they can kind of contain the damage, particularly as we roll into next year. my suspicion is able move up up -- they will move up the introduction of the next note. >> it is another record-breaking singles' day for alibaba, the biggest online shopping day of the year in china. singles day. the e-commerce giant said it had beaten last year sales mark of more than $13 billion. >> it underlines and underscores why we are seeing international
companies getting on board with the shopping extravaganza that puts black friday and cyber monday in the shade. 14,000 international firms, the likes of apple, nike, adidas all doing well today, and the shopping festival is a litmus test for the health of the chinese consumer, who have remained bullish. ♪
♪ rishaad: the tough-talking mayor rodrigo duterte is on course to be the next president of the philippines. with about 90% of the votes counted, he is claiming victory. >> international observers are being briefed on the election process in the philippines. duterte is leading the polls with 90% of the vote counted. the question is whether he can gain investment confidence in the investment community.
>> china's claim to 80% of the south china sea has been ruled null and void. an international tribunal court says china's efforts to exert control have exceeded the law. >> china saying they hope they can resolve this diplomatically through talks. what is the likelihood of that? >> it is clear that china will not abide by the tribunal holdings. what china will expect now is to develop negotiations with the philippines. this is highly likely to happen. ♪ rishaad: global politics had a profound impact on business and finance in 2016, capped by the unexpected result of the u.s. presidential election. as a candidate, donald trump promised to confront china on trade and economic issues, but he does not take office until
january and he has already made statements and decisions that reverberate in asia. >> donald trump has taken on china via social media, hitting back at criticism of his decision to take a phone call from the president of taiwan. >> he has been hitting out at china over what he sees as the yuan and thef the taxes on u.s. imports the china and over the south china sea. we have seen the offshore yuan versus the dollar trade lower following these tweets, and the question is whether this is more empty rhetoric from donald trump or whether he will be taking a more confrontational line with china. >> very much the word out of beijing is that he is not president yet, and perhaps he is being badly advised. they are doing everything they can right now. >> america's four-decade one china policy may be put to the test with president-elect donald trump, saying no one can tell him who to talk to. this comes after the uproar after his phone call with the
president of taiwan. he says his attitude will depend on securing better trade deals with beijing, and the one china policy he says may be china's policy, but not america's, unless he can make a deal. what is the buzz on the ground in beijing as to how china is likely going to react here? >> there has been no official comment so far, but we have had an indication from the state media as to how some here feel. the "global times" describing donald trump as ignorant as it comes to china-u.s. ties. saying the one china policy is not for negotiation and will not be traded away, and calling for beijing to put obstacles in place when donald trump takes over the white house to show that china won't be bullied and pushed around. they are faced by a president-elect who is
nominating for ambassador to china some of they see as a friend to the country, the iowa governor who had a long-standing relationship with the chinese president. you have donald trump lambasting them over tariffs, trade, the yuan, the south china sea, so they have to divine what his true intentions are. >> how does this play out? what are some of the next steps here? >> i fear the u.s. and china could be on a collision course. it is almost making the case. trump has two major policy pillars. fiscal stimulus will be bullish for the u.s. dollar, but his trade policy to bring trade back to the u.s., he needs a weak dollar. does he want a strong dollar or weak dollar? here is the contradiction of his policy mix. right? athink he ultimately wants weak dollar. the problem is that china also needs a weak renminbi, so how can china and trump both have weak currencies? the more successful donald trump is going to be, meaning the stronger the u.s. economy, the stronger the dollar, the weaker
the reminbi, which will increase pressure on china. it is almost self-fulfilling. that's what i worry most about, and how it plays out, i think this will be the biggest headache for investors for 2017. rishaad: 2017 should be very interesting indeed, and that does conclude this special ourion of "bloomberg best," 2016 asia year in review. you can find more stories, analysis, and interviews on bloomberg.com, as well as all the latest business news each day, every day. thanks for watching. i am rishaad salamat. this is bloomberg. ♪