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tv   Bloomberg Markets European Close  Bloomberg  January 3, 2017 11:00am-12:01pm EST

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bloomberg markets. ♪ mark: we will take you from new york to london and cover stories out of kuwait, paris, and china. here's what we are watching today. , theean stocks rising first full trading day of 2017, stoxx 600 up and financials and energy shares leading the way. about tour traders jump ship and head across the english channel, why paris may be poised to lead thousands of finance jobs in the aftermath of brexit. ♪ cuts starting to take hold and that has oil surging to an 18 month high. i'm on an kuwait, will other countries policy -- all on an kuwait, will other countries follow suit? mark: under 30 minutes until the
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finish of the tuesday session, first trading day of the year in london and in switzerland, the left-hand column of this go function shows equities rising across the board. in greece, luxembourg, austria, switzerland, spain, belgium, currencies in the second column are falling against the dollar. what a quarter the dollar had, the last quarter of 2016. best since 2008. sovereign bonds is the third column, let's not forget the stoxx 600 is heading for a bull market. minutes, the move from february last year through today on a closing basis. 20%. that is a bull market. in turkey, this tells you what has been happening, the dollar rising to a record high against the lira which is falling to a
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record low against the dollar, the biggest decline against the dollar among the world's major currencies today, falling as much as 1.6%. the killer of 39 people at an istanbul nightclub out large. inflation accelerating more than expected in december, the annual , morebove all estimates than 3.5% above the central banks target, the deterioration in data including negative growth in the third quarter, consumer confidence near record lows in december is compounded by increasing security risks. watch the lira in 2017. germany data showing unemployment extending its decline in december, signs that europe's biggest economy accelerated at the finish of last year. the number of people out of work falling by a seasonally adjusted 17,002 two point -- the jobless
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rate unchanged at 6%, matching the lows level since reunification. the bundesbank protecting the rate dropping to -- 5.9% this year is a 6.1% last year. says the economy expanded at a significantly faster pace in the first -- fourth quarter driven by industry and private conception. we will talk about it in a second. inflation more than doubled to 1.7% driven by a surge in oil. rate fors inflation the eurozone. out of china today, the tension turns to pmi data across the world, factories and services both closing out 2016 in good shape. the manufacturing pmi, stabilizing near the post 2012 high in december, edging down to 51.4 from 51.7 a previous month
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and nonmanufacturing emi, the blue line -- pmi, the blue line, slipping. february of last year, manufacturing pmi went below 50, the economy is on pace to meet the official growth target posting 6.7% expansion in the first, second, and third quarters of last year and factory prices have snapped four years of deflation with the trinity of threat for china, capital outflow, u.s. rate hikes, and donald trump caret if they arrive. let's go to the markets desk. how is it looking? julie: headlines on ford motor, the company saying it is canceling plans for a new $1.6 billion plant in new mexico. it is focused the move on safeguarding the 3500 u.s. jobs.
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shares coming off their highs a little bit, still up 2%. the company saying it is talking about electric vehicles. moving part of its $4.5 billion investment in electric vehicles to 2020 and testing electric vehicle prototypes in europe, new york, and other large u.s. cities by the big headline is that it is canceling plans for a plant, not clear if this has to do with the president elect, whether direct discussions with him or avoiding tweets from him. we do not have that information as of now. ford canceling its plans for a new new mexico plant and it looks like that will keep 3500 jobs. donald trump tweeted about general motors and chevrolet cruise vehicles made in mexico,
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general motors set it makes some of its hatchbacks but all of its sedans are manufactured in the united states. we will keep track of this and bring you for the developments. u.s. stock still higher but caring some of the earlier gains -- pairing some of the earlier gains. what happens early in the year, we saw the s&p 500 pullback 1% last week, which was reversing the move since the election. if you look at the last five years of the last week of the year and the first week of january, you have seen a reversal every time, no matter which way. last week of december isn't quite and the first week of january is in blue. every time you have seen the howsite movement, that is
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we are starting off this week with no guarantee that is how we will finish it. today session, a resumption of at least some of the moves we have seen post-election, the how moves reversed last week. energy shares higher and health care rally, technology and financials as well holding the top spot. telecom shares doing quite well. we talked about oil prices rising as opec nations and nonmember nations start to cut. we have some of the best percentage performance in the s&p 500 and the energy covers, marathon, transocean, murphy oil , one of these things is not like the other, centurylink, the company up in this list because it was up overweight over a jpmorgan, the analyst of their say the dividend yield at near record levels versus u.s. 10 year notes at the analysts are commenting favorably on the company's level three acquisition which is pending. energy shares up at oil focus shares up. a sharp disconnect with natural gas which prices are heading
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lower on a forecast for some warmer weather. by 9%, natural gas step and natural gas providers down. the sharp divergence between oil focused energy companies and natural gas focused energy companies. vonnie: thank you for that. headlines that broke a few minutes ago, mark fields, the ford ceo speaking at a news conference call saying that they are canceling plans for a new $1.6 billion net ago plant. -- mexico plant. mark feels will be on the show later on in this 12:00 hour, to tune in.'- to dan -- mark: will the momentum of growth continue into 2017/ our next guest says watch out for a surge in bad inflation which could hamper growth.
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germany, 1.7% but it is scratching beneath the service, because tomorrow the euro zone inflation could be strong. core inflation, no evidence is there when you strip out energy prices? >> it will stay at .8% which is the level it has been a since the end of 2014. of a morend spite positive message, said last week that they were still nothing -- no sign there was resurgence in co-inflation. the inflation is oil prices, in the german case, the erratic elements as usual, a lot of them in germany relation. the holidays have it rose 20% on month to month in december, the market lost, this shocking figure in germany, the underlying story remains weaker
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but the problem is that to generate good inflation, that should be the reflection of higher pricing power in the economy, you will need to see something happening on the wage distribution and nothing has happened, including in germany. 2017will be interesting in , in spite of this record unemployment in germany, wages still stay subdued and which we stay in this bad inflation. mark: why is it subdued? >> hard to understand what is going on, first of all, you have the simple land effect of low inflation the last two years, three years, germany very simple nominal wages have continued to grow at a nice case related to what was going on in the rest of europe when inflation was zero or negative which means they have been doing more than ok in germany lately, job creation has been good, the oppression for most desk impression foremost in germany is that things have been
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ok. not the pressure for proper renegotiation of wages. something in the past we saw, even the labor movement and germany tends to internalize the maintain competitiveness and german competitiveness has not been doing very well over the past few years. union labor cost have drifted, productivity has not grown a lot lately. it is very often that you see that when companies in this -- competitiveness deteriorates, the labor movement, not the right time to be very active in it demands, especially when had two years or three years there he got real wages. that's real wages. do you9 mark: -- vonnie: see a crisis that may drag the europe economy into recession?
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my bloombergrs to which shows the g7. >> i do not expect a recession in 2017 in europe, i have gdp growth at 1.4. my point on europe is more that inhad a number of tailwinds 25 -- 2015-2016, also eight general net loosening in fiscal conditions which is saving inflation -- inflation is normalizing. at the same time, we see a return to the old disciplinarian approach to fiscal policy. the ecb are saying that it is time to start swapping out the fiscal issues that countries cannot count on interest rate forever and the european commission is being cover -- being tougher. inflatione the bad
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and it starts to materialize, domestic demand will be dampened. fortunately for us, external demands seem to be improving, good news from china, we hope we get good news from the u.s. as well. you could have a rebalancing, domestic demand a bit struggling but more dynamism from the trade. vonnie: you anticipate a trade war? and currencies, which currencies are you watching as danger zones? >> we do not expect an all-out trade war with massive increases in tariffs. the issue is about china. if the u.s. engages in this policy, the negative feedback would materialize very quickly. -- given the size and share
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of imports in consumer goods in the u.s., the first victim of this policy would be the u.s. consumers. what you would have is this pressure on foreign direct investment, an attempt by a lot of national authorities, not just in the u.s., to convince companies to reduce their investment overseas. in the short run, probably a positive or local jobs but in the long run, you probably lose some competitiveness down the road. we do not expect a trade war. on currencies, we think the currency which is -- has the biggest potential for further weakening is probably the japanese yen, where you have the clearest divergence in terms of policy when you compare it to the fed. the fed is on hiking path, the ecb'tis hard to understand at
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the moment. is hard to understand at the moment. growth ind, stronger manufacturing in 2.5 years because the sterling is weekend, which way do you think it is leaning? the money seems to be on a hike, not on a near-term but could they go into a 17 if inflation overshoots -- in 2017 if the inflation overshoots? notextbook would tell you to do anything at this stage but it is fair to say there is room -- much more constrained than they were last year. -- it is not the eurozone, they do not have 20 interest rate to control, just one. they have very clear fiscal push.
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the most predictable monetary policy, the most of urgent from the fed him a further weakening and the yen is something rational. mark: thank you for joining us, the chief european economist for bank of america merrill lynch. more breaking news. vonnie: we will watch the idea that there will be no continuance with that plan to open a mexico plant. there had been a plan for a $1.6 billion plant which is going away according to mark fields, the president and ceo of ford. other headlines, seven of 13 new electric vehicles in the next five years, building a next-generation focus at the existing mexico plant, investing $700 million in flat rock, michigan, the plant expansion. the main headline, canceling plans for a $1.6 billion plant in mexico-based on comments the
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president-elect has made. a littleave mark feels bit later on, 12:20 eastern time, he will come on. peso, trading at 20.91, a half weaker than earlier in the day. this is peso, bloomberg. ♪
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mark: live from london i am a mark barton. fear being close about 11 minutes away. -- the european close about 11 minutes away. vonnie: i am vonnie quinn. mark: harris could bring 20,000 workers from britain finance industry, the exodus could start
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within weeks as the u.k. begins its withdrawal from the eu according to french capital lobby group. how soon could this exodus begin? >> if you're talking two different lobby group, they say decisions could be made soon. they expect decisions to be made even in the first quarter and that will start to get momentum potentially in the second quarter. similarly have said that a lot of it depends on transition agreements and if it looks like that is not coming together, they may have to start shifting plants into higher gear. mark: what does france have, frank for, dublin, warsaw -- frankfurt, dublin, warsaw does not have? >> they have a presentation and they counted -- touted their
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large workforce already, almost double frankfurt. they point out that dublin is much smaller, in the neighborhood of 30,000 financiers. they would absorb more than others. they point out that interest rate that's haven't talked about, trading -- that they have talked about, a lot happens in paris but it is dwarfed by the u.k. mark: non-interest-rate swaps -- they are and looking to upload the french clearing business. will this pacify the likes of francois hollande and others who have been critical, especially on the clearing angle? >> there are the two issues, you pacify competition regulators
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which remains to be seen. they will be arguing that, saying it helps competition but not everyone is convinced, rivals. hollandeke francois who wants interest rate swaps clearing, to take place somewhere in the eu besides london. it does not look like this would address that. interest-rate swaps, this division being sold does not clear that come it mostly happens in london. mark: jamie dimon had a few things to say about brexit. was asked questions, he reiterated that as many in the neighborhood of 4000 london bankers could move potentially. he said it depends on a lot of things that he is one of the executives that set it depends in part on whether or not some interim agreement is reached which theresa may has not solidified. jobs, up for grabs.
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>> a large number, some speculation, some reports saying even higher numbers, derivatives clearing could be on the block. potentially big numbers. mark: a busy year for you, we will have you back many times. still ahead -- vonnie: great stuff -- looking , solid gains across the board as opec producers start to cut. coming up at 12:00 20 eastern, an interview with ceo of ford mark fields, canceling plans to build a $1.6 billion plan in mexico. this is bloomberg. ♪
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vonnie: live from london and new york, i am vonnie quinn. mark: i am a mark barton and
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this is the european close. under five minutes to go. a look at what is happening to european equities, towards a bull market. rising 20% from february of 2016 lows. we will close at a bull market, ftse out and the dax is lower and gains for the currency board -- let's look at the currency board. the dollar last quarter rallying. the most since 2008. i will leave you with the bond board, stocks rising, european bond yields still going up, close four minutes away. ♪
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mark: live from london and new york, this is the european close come i am mark barton with vonnie quinn. the stoxx 600 will
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finish in a bull market. from february 11th 2016 through today, a rise of over 20%. a bull market for european stocks led by banks, financial services. for the record, down 12% from the record in august -- in april, excuse me, 2015. barclays as a target of 400 for the stoxx 600, 11% return, inven by a 10% return earnings or 10% increase in earnings growth, it says for price growth preventing earnings growth in europe, inflation picks up margins should expand heavy political calendar in europe a big risk, overweight financials and discretionary tech come industrials, telco, underway stables, utilities, and materials. the euro stocks 50 a gauge of euro area companies is over
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bought. run, 13 days, since 1999. a lovely chart, all about recession potential for the big economies of the globe. the u.k. entering a recession over the next 12 month, the blue line is 30%, look at post-brexit come up audio percent, almost half of that small space of time due to the improved prospect for the u.k. economy. the trend in japan as well, japan is the red line. at 35% in june with the u.s. relatively -- it had been unchanged, 20% since may. the euro area, purple, 15%, down in september but up again, at 15% pretty much since the beginning of last year, the power of the bloomberg.
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lse an attempt to smooth a way for a takeover. it will create a big behemoth and everything from indexes to start markets to clearing, clearing is a big rationale for the takeover by georgia but a big hurdle for regulators and politicians. lse down one half of 1%. atvs of u.k. economic data, manufacturing, weak sterling boosting manufacturing, the highest level in 2.5 years. we had been below 50% post-brexit and now 56% right now, what sterling is doing is fueling inflation, a survey today showing the output prices rose for an eight month, 75% of
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companies mentioned in the exchange rate, many cited the higher price of commodities, including oil and steel. the ftse at a record high, the stoxx 600 in a bull market, what more can i say? on the firste bump day of trading for 2017, u.s. markets as well. 1%, ap 500 at 610 sub 2251 but some of the top performers are energy companies and crude oil has regressed course, down now. a nice bump earlier on after the opec news that the production cost were going ahead but now changed to wti is dollars in an hour or two, down 8/10 of 1% as is brent. the dow jones industrial average is also higher by a third of a percent. in currencies, you spoke about
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some of them, more in a moment but the dollar index continuing to strengthen, this is the rebalance bloomberg dollar index. index, theollar ex-wife at 103.21. we were above 118 on dollar-yen, dollar stronger by a 10th of 1%. , somebody thought the yen was the currency to watch in terms of weakening but this is another story today. the lira down by 1.1%. some saying it was not the attacks or the prospect of more violence in turkey, it was the inflation and economic data and 2017, everything is interlinked. is u.s. 10 year yield trading at 250 earlier, down to
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247. the first word news. ambassador to the european union has unexpectedly resigned, a government spokesman so his is leaving successor can be appointed before the u.k. invokes article 50 by the end of march. last month, theresa may attributed toarks him that were pessimistic about the chances of a british trade deal with the eu. the french presidential campaign into gear, national front leader marine le pen renewed her attacks on the european model of immigration, budget controls, and currency union, pollsters expect her to reach the second round of balloting this spring and conservative front runner frances yoon and the former french prime minister will speak on the evening news. in israel, police have questioned prime minister benjamin netanyahu over corruption allegations, over claims he received even go gifts, he has said the police
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will fail to find anything criminal. donald trump has nominated a critic of china to be the u.s. trade representative. he was deputy trade representative in the ronald reagan administration. he is currently a lawyer in washington. he was previously accused china of unfair trade practices -- he previously accused china of unfair trade practices. riggs, this is bloomberg. mark: thank you. oil flirting with $55 a barrel, $53 now following an announcement of kuwait and him on. significantk at how this news is, we are joined by julie only -- julian lee. we have come back out to a decline of 1.3%, any reason? or not? >> start of your exuberance,
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perhaps. we saw early this morning, a reaction to this announcement thatboth kuwait and iman they were cutting production in january to abide by the agreement towards the end of last year. that created a mood in the market that this deal would stick that there would be output cuts, kuwait was the fourth biggest cut. the downaps has driven lay was the announcement from libya which included for the first time, exports from its biggest oilfield in the west of the country. could the countries that put a hole in this opec deal.
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it may be this opec deal has in part what is driving this. mark: when do we get a sense of who is abiding by what was agreed? how much longer do we need in timeframe before we get a true sense? >> at least one month and probably more. the first thing is that everybody will say encouraging banks because they want the price benefits from doing that. what we need to see what actually happens to export flows. what comes out of opec member countries. tracking will give us perhaps a sort of preview of that, we can see that e-voting 30 months -- evolving through the months. we will get a clear sign of whether the exports have come down relative to november and december. if so, how much.
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not expecting this agreement will get implemented in full immediately. it will take a couple of months. at least one month. vonnie: what about russia, any sign that they will implement cuts? >> not yet. russia has indicated it would implement the cuts gradually over the course of the first three or four months of the year. their december production was around 11.2 million barrels per day,. as ben since october -- where it has been since october. some of the production in the early part of this year will come from natural declines and some of it from maintenance of their only offshore field in the arctic but no signs yet. ask,e: it is tempting to what could go wrong with the deal but there is so much, you could be there all day.
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priorities wrong -- wife, what could go wrong -- wise, what could go wrong? isone of the biggest issues compliant, will countries do what they said they will do, opec history is not exemplary. best buy whatct they agree to partially with respect to what happened this time around. perhaps the biggest obstacle maybe that will have to be overcome will be the two countries left out of the deal. libya and nigeria. both are attempting to rebuild their oil industry which has been disrupted by unrest in the country's. libya a few that moments ago has started to
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restore production from its biggest fields in the west of the country. hampered byeen disagreements over the flow of oil from the fields which have started to be rebuilt. early indications that december production was up by 50,000 barrels per day from november. january loading program looks to be another increase on top of that. 80's on bloomberg -- eightis morning piece on bloomberg gadfly, if libya and nigeria managed to do what they help in restoring offset they could really as much as two thirds, perhaps three quarters of what opec has agreed to cut. mark: what would that do to the price, i do not have time to ask, time.t wti at $52.80, up next,
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detroit, the breaking news from to build aling plans plant in mexico saying that donald trump policies influencing the decision. at 12:20 eastern, an interview with ford ceo mark fields, an important one to tune in for. ♪
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mark: live from london and new york, i am a mark barton with vonnie quinn. this is the european close on bloomberg television. state news in the auto industry. vonnie: the mexican peso headlines,the ford
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they are stopping plans to build a $1.6 billion plant in mexico after coming under criticism by donald trump. mark fields, the ceo, said this in a news conference in michigan. for more, we are joined by david welsh in detroit, a $1.6 billion plant but there will not be a plant in the united states to take its place. we will see expansion at an already existing plant. what does this mean for the future of ford? >> they will be shifting production from one location in mexico to another. while we cannot see, will be plant be enough to build all the vehicles they need, whether compact suvs, cars, or will they need to add production here? we note that the plant that used to make the focus in wayne, michigan that was losing the focus to mexican production will be making something different,
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the ford bronco suv and the ford ranger pickup truck. both of the vehicles have been gone for some time and ford planning to bring them back but have not announced it. there will be investment in michigan but nothing new in terms of jobs for the u.s. the company had not already planned. nothing in terms of production that has been clicked -- canceled in mexico but a big investment, what that means in terms of losing potential mexican jobs, they have not spelled out. vonnie: they are basically crediting donald trump and his pro-business policy, what is the strategy, is ford trying to appease donald trump to win more tax breaks? it is difficult to know, right? , whathave some insight ford and the auto industry wants is relaxation on fuel economy and greenhouse gas standards. they have whispered about this
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to donald trump's people and lobbied for years with whatever administration was in office. they really want, donald trump pro-business, talking about the epa being excessive and perhaps going away, not sure we will have that but we could see a relaxation of fuel economy standards to allow the automotive the lakers to sell more suvs and trucks which are more profitable than cars and what american consumers are buying with gasoline being cheap. if they relax that, you could see the payoff for donald trump may be more investment in the u.s. and more job creation for ford and other automakers. mark: donald trump has made a ,ssertion about general motors the fading compact car in mexico, received a terse response from the company. tell us what he said and how general motors reacted. >> donald trump said general
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motors should be building this version of the chevy cruz compact but -- not in mexico but in ohio where they make the sedan version of the cruise. very fewotors sells hatchback versions in the united states, 4500 last year and a half year of sales and close to 200,000. americans don't are many hatchbacks because it is a and americans car have never liked hatchbacks. he picked on the wrong vehicle. , we make aors said load of compact cars in the u.s., we make the sedan, all made in lordstown, ohio. what we make in mexico is insignificant. the hatchback is a next ford vehicle to other markets besides the u.s., south america, other places where small cars are much
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more desirable and more affordable a cars are important. it is a non-us export vehicle for them. he wanted to bring that back but general motors say that is not that significant for us. vonnie: he probably picked -- mark: he probably picked on the wrong vehicle, does the automobile industry cents the president elect is picking on them unduly? >> i don't know if unduly picked on because there has been pressure on boeing, carrier, lockheed, but you have to think that all automakers, not just u.s. automakers, are feeling pressure because there are 24 billion investments in some states going into mexico or a plan for mexico, not just ford and general motors, bowles why w, nissan, a lot of
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investment from a lot of carmakers down there and they have to be scratching their heads. will there be a tariff, will now have to be renegotiated -- will nafta bewill there be a re? mark: thank you, david wells from detroit, a programming note, mark fields, the president and ceo of ford will be our special guest today at 12:20 eastern, stay tuned for that. time for a bloomberg business flash, some of the biggest biggest -- biggest business stories. ,arl icahn has raised his offer he bumped up his bid by $.75 to $10 per share come he owns 82% of federal-mobile, they supply original and aftermarket auto products. china's third-biggest search ending expected to hold an ipo in the u.s., evaluation as much
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as $5 billion, it is raising cash to close the gap with the industry leader in the mobile market and plans to sell about 10% of its shares in the ipo. switzerland is the home of the worlds highest paid expatriates. they -- those living in switzerland earn an average 180,000 dollars per year, almost twice the global average, most of the expatriate say their work-life balance has improved. that is the latest bloomberg business flash. 2017,he first one of starting the year with a battle over natural gas prices, and the chinese yuan, i have my judges, this is bloomberg. ♪
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mark: time for the global battle of the chart, the most telling chart of the day, what they mean for investors, accident on the bloomberg by running the function at the bottom of your screen. starting things off in 4017, a huge honor, taylor riggs -- for 2017, a huge honor, taylor riggs. -- natural gas prices, oil has which lower, natural gas prices down over 10% this morning, you will see that in the white bar, the biggest one-day change. this morning when i came in around 5:00 a.m., down 6.5%, the biggest one-day drop since july and out way surpassed that, down the biggest drop for one day in one year. what are the factors? the supply and demand, technical factors, help production in the blue line, it had come down which increased crisis. what happened today to cost that
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big drop? i blame it on warmer weather, analysts saying the forecast for mid-january are a lot warmer than usual, using or withdrawing less natural gas which means a lot more supply and a big drop in prices. i have not been outside in a few hours but i say it is raining, not snowing. -- mark: beat that, the first great chart of the year. vonnie: even if i do not win, the one --ortant, yuan, the basket rebalance by the chinese authorities, not making a huge the difference but taking down the dollar portion against which it is measured.
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the yuan we, getting where as the basket staying steady, part of an effort by the chinese authorities seeing the currency as a real weighty currency in the real world, i could go on, check out the new restrictions put on when it comes to money exiting in china, the same amount, $50,000 per year but new disclosure requirements. they are getting strict on transactions come on day -- they are getting strict on transactions, aren't they? whisker,y close, by a vonnie quinn is the winner, congratulations.
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vonnie: it is noon in new york, 5:00 p.m. in london. i am vonnie quinn. david: i am david gura. welcome to "bloomberg markets."
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♪ bloomberg's world headquarters, we covered stories from detroit to moscow. ford scrapped plans to build a plant in mexico after undergoing criticism by donald trump. ceo markeat -- ford fields will join us. and according to year asia -- eurasia group, we are facing volatility not seen since world war ii. and european stocks rise after economic optimism. more on that data halfway into the trading day. julie hyman joins us now. julie: strong start though not as initially. s&p 500 of as much as three quarters of 1%. it has paired that gain to some extent -- it has pared that gain to some


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