tv Bloomberg Markets Middle East Bloomberg July 9, 2017 12:00am-1:00am EDT
♪ image,g 20's splitting deep divisions on a trade and climate change were apparent. the u.s. going its own way. >> saudi arabia and its allies are said to be considering escalated measures against qatar. >> meanwhile, 70 -- saudi arabia's vision of the future includes privatized health care. this week's focus will be
on inflation data and the start of the second quarter earnings viewe.viewed that season tracy: we had quite a week in markets. we saw this dramatic shift in the bond market starting on thursday that escalated into equities as the day went on. that's take a look at what actually went down at the close on friday. take a look at the bonds. you can see the u.s. 10 year yield up to .02 basis points. not as bad as expected. this was off the back of the u.s. jobs number four june, that came in much better than 222,000 in gain of june versus the 178,000 we had expected good german 10-year yields also selling off good. emerging markets bonds also selling off. not nearly as to medicus thursday. take a look at what happened in
the equity market. u.s. jobs number feeding into the s&p 500, up almost two thirds of a percent on friday. the nasdaq 100 is interesting. a closed out 1%. remember, that was the big loser at the beginning of the week. if you look at a chart of the nasdaq 100 over the past five days or so, it looks like a roller coaster. i find that amusing, but i'm easily amused. meanwhile, the emerging markets stocks down a little bit, but not nearly as bad as some people might have thought on thursday feud yousef: another important date for crude. this is off the back of concern there is so much oil out there. we got data out of the united states. it showed an interesting picture viewed you have expansion and drilling rates that offset the larger than expected drop in stockpiles. bear in mind we had interesting moves in the precious metals
space. gold and silver taking a beating. this goes back to what you are saying a moment ago, having taken a can of raid and sprayed it throughout the gold fund community could -- gold bond community. there could be more downsides to compute a quick note on what is happening in this part of the world. you have to bear in mind that on the first front, you saw a little bit of narrowing when it comes to the trend. overa widening, a spread treasuries. also in terms of the wider market pulse. we did see bonds at their lowest level since issuance. other classes have been resilient. if you collect the mmr go function, you get an idea of how key stocks have performed in the last five days. this was the week where we had the deadline from the saudi led
block as to the compliance from qatar the did not come through. here are some of the highlights. some of the bigger deals being announced. qatar stocks rebounding selectively. qatar gas up, qatar navigation as well. the other story is the selloff in the emerging markets or off of it -- off the back of emerging markets. more popular defensive space, look at that. here is a check of the first word headlines. >> thank you. president trump and president putin held the first meeting in hamburg. trump raised the issue of russian interference u.s. elections several times. putin denied meddling in the election, but both sides emerged with different accounts of
trumps response. moscow said trump accepted the denial but washington said trump merely agreed that the two sides should move on from the issue. >> our position is known. there is no ground for saying russia interfered in the u.s. election. turkish president brca 1 expressed backing off of qatar. he said at the g20 meeting that accusations aimed at qatar by neighbors was unfair. he also said that they were inappropriate. there are allegations against qatar, we believe those are unfair and sanctions are not right. just like all countries in the --ld, the serenity sovereignty of qatar must be respected. global news 24 hours a day,
powered by more than 2600 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. this is bloomberg. thank you so much. let's get more on our top story, the g20. joining us is john paul the cap. always lovely to see you. we are getting the headlines from the g20, but it seems like two numbers together. 19 versus one. this is the idea that on any number of trade policies or policies in general, it seems like there is quite a split between the u.s. and the rest of the g20 members. think that is can be the case for the next while. we are used to it era of american leadership in economic affairs and global trade. that is not the case under a trump presidency. the bottom line is that the world is going to need to get
used to the fact that we are not going to have american leadership on big trade deals. not necessarily going to stop agreements from happening. he saw the eu and japan announce a big trade deal they've been working on for the last four years. they will take place, but probably not as global in scope as they were previously. yousef: this was one of the most anticipated and possibly turbulent meeting of global leaders in years. what was your take away from the deliberations? jean-paul: there wasn't any headlines in terms of donald trump and president putin's leading -- meeting. i think that will be key for the middle east in general but also the gcc in particular in terms of everything going on in the region. despite donald trump's insistence he will not lead global trade agreement, we still need american leadership in the region in terms of solving a lot of the regional political crises that flareup from time to time.
it is important we see russia and the u.s. agreed to certain base parameters. tracy: just in terms of u.s. leadership in the region. obviously we saw news around syria, but in terms of the business relationships, one of the things that is interesting here is we have seen as the u.s. exits from parts of the region, andinstance, iraq, european chinese companies come in. jean-paul: last week was a key week for iran in particular. there was an announcement they would be investing into petrochemical plants and the natural gas field. those announcements -- investment the high profile and send a signal to other european corporate that despite iran's elevated political risk profile and the persistent threat that trump can tighten sanctions on iran, europe will go its own way.
that might throw some interesting dynamics vis-a-vis the rest of the gcc. in terms of where we are, we have put up a chart on the bloomberg. your emerging markets index. that rally point, we talked about it several times before. the key point is the decline of global trade leading indicator. some headwinds for metadata. let's put the trade story aside for a second and go to geopolitics. leaders aren some pointing to. they have been able to secure deals when it comes to syria, for example. those are expected to come into effect. how will that change the course of the syrian conflict? what are the wider implications for the region? jean-paul: the optimist in me would hope that would be quite positive for syria, but this is
a crisis that has been going on 2011. geopolitics, it is just the cost of doing business in the middle east, and not just syria, it is libya, iran and qatar now, as well. i think investors with exposure to the middle east are custom to -- are accustomed to geopolitical risk. we just hope for the best. tracy: we've seen cease-fire agreements and syria before, one thing that makes this agreement slightly more interesting is the idea of a soft partition of creatingd maybe by de-escalation zones, you see different geopolitical powers a sickly lay claim -- basically lay claim to the region. is that something investors should be watching? jean-paul: a partition of syria would probably at this stage seem to be the best case scenario in terms of putting an end to the conflicts. if you were to look out longer-term, i would try to draw
comparisons with a place like bosnia, let's say, were often that's where after the conflict they have a power-sharing agreement with different entities. it is a disaster from a policy taking perspective, you cannot get anything done, but i'm a little and security perspective, it reduced risks. it was said that isis is going to retake most of syria and there's nothing u.s. can do about it. we will continue our conversation with jean-paul. ceo of france caroline tells us that he wants tighter regulation on middle eastern carriers. we will to you what is new. tracy: but next, saudi arabia's privatization. its plans for the health care
♪ i am tracy alloway. yousef: let's widen the conversation. saudi arabia's king is said to approve health care privatization. it will change hospitals into corporations. jean-paul is the weather is on a set. in terms of economic growth, we had data recently, this is a reminder for clients, we put this on a chart. it has been a series of growth years for the kingdom, and then the downside, the contraction on the quarter, down .5 of 1%.
what is your health check in terms of where saudi arabia is with its reforms? the impact on sentiment coming from qatar, the prospect of weaker liquidity ahead of the saudi aramco -- put it in context for us. jean-paul: it is not great. i think it is fair to say the economy is in recession. it is a very simple economic model when you think about it. it is oil production and government spending among which is financed by oil revenues that drives activity in the nonoil sector. when you look to the second half of the year, the only reason i am more optimistic on h2 that i was on h one is because we saw the reversal in cuts to the civil servant allowances and public-sector salaries. that is very positive for the short form -- short-term economically, but you mentioned the reform program. that tells me they're going nowhere with the form program. he can talk about privatizing health care, you can even talk
about the aramco ipo which gets a lot of headlines internationally. none of that means anything. the most fundamental reform needs to happen over the next 5-10 years is this kind of less reliance on public-sector workers and public sector jobs for the national spirit that reversal in reform goes the other way. tracy: how much does it help that you have qatar being sort of isolated from the rest of the gcc region? but potentially there is more of a pool of foreign direct investment that could go into a place like saudi arabia at a time when they say they are attempting to privatize what's of infrastructure and other assets. jean-paul: ultimately, i don't think the qatar crisis is good for anyone in the gcc. these are economies which are running double-digit account deficits and relying on foreign capital the finance domestic man's.
-- the mystic demands. those kind of arguments one of held when oil was more expensive. when oil is $50 a barrel, these economies will have to work hard to present a positive image to the rest of the world. and all the guitar crisis does that for anyone at this stage. we haven't heard anything yet about additional measures. next withing to come qatar? jean-paul: ultimately, i don't know. for what i understand, the initial 13 demands have been withdrawn. for my point of view, it is quite difficult to see what you might consider an exit strategy from this crisis, because neither side right now necessarily wants to publicly back down and publicly lose face. how they are going to negotiate out of this is going to be quite difficult. it is going to be even more difficult tying in what we just talked about in the previous segment, with a lack of u.s. leadership in the region.
we've had a very different views coming out of the u.s. in terms of what is coming from donald trump the secretary of state and state department. that does not revive me with confidence the crisis can be resolved through the u.s. tracy: in terms of the actual market impact of the crisis on qatar, we have seen it in the stoxx, but also the bonds. yield, you at the see it search when the whole thing started kicking off and then we got a reprieve and now it is back up again. that is a painful chart if you country relying on external financing to some degree or at least trying to be more reliant on it, and a country that also has a peg to the u.s. dollar. jean-paul: it is a big move, but in the broader context, this is an economy that has seen its land, air and sea links with its neighbors shut off.
that move is actually reasonably muted in the broader context. if this were to happen to a moreer economy that had nonoil goods traits with the rest of the world, you would probably be seeing moves that would be accentuated. i would say -- a goes to show, the qatari economy is relatively insulated. 50% is hydrocarbons. from what i understand, the stream pumping natural gas to the uae is still functioning. the rest of the nonoil economy is being driven by the construction sector, government spending in preparation for the world cup. that is probably not going to stop, either. this is one of those situations where kind of the inflated nature of the qatari economy helps mitigate the crisis. tracy: you are staying with us because next we're going to talk about egypt and the egyptian.
♪ we are live from dubai. is still withaul us as we continue to speak about egypt. the second move upward this year to a record high 18.75. also joining us is bloomberg's economy and government editor. we were just talking during the break about how the bank managed to surprise the market. put it all in perspective. >> nobody was expecting this, expecting a minority an increase, and the rationale
was if you want to target inflation in egypt, raising interest rates doesn't really work because the transition mechanism is not perfect. but the central bank as we saw raised 200 business points. they working in their statement to balance the message, this is temporary -- they told us in the statement, probably this is the end of the tightening cycle. it will be down, not up. tracy: they have a history of doing this, reversing after. if that is the case, does that mean this is not about inflation, it is maybe more about managing inflows as you ease capital control? managing inflows, you could argue they don't really need that at the moment because inflows have been really strong since the pound's flotation in december, we've seen between
seven and $8 billion. week, it has seen to price increases in domestic fuel and electricity by substantial margins. this decision is to mitigate the impact of those two decisions. yousef: we're talking about inflation and interest rates, we put this on our chart. you can pull it up on your bloomberg. this is again to show, as you can see, in the last few months, the egyptian depositories have gone up. the bottom, that is the cpi, the slightly rate that is moderated but far too high by historical standards. if the transition mechanism is not working, and we talked about this before, what kind of options does this even have? alaa: we have an economist onset here. [laughter] alaa: i asked the imf about this in april. saysd them, textbook
either target with interest rates or delay subsidies, subsidy cuts. they said, we prefer interest rates. as we saw, the cuts went ahead. it was a surprise and the upside for many people, because the increases were much larger than was expected. on inflation, before the subsidy move, you talk to people in the tell you, month on month inflation is stable. month on month we have seen the trend stabilizing go down. the 30% annual rate is to an extent due to base effects that would moderate toward the end of the year, and the forecast is that by the end of the year, it will still be in the high 20's, but will go down in 2018. again, that is the reason why the market is so surprised. a lot of people don't really get , again, how do you -- if the
transition mechanism is perfect, why are we raising interest rates 400 basis points? tracy: as you suggested, let's bring in our economist. what is your read on the interest rate hike? is it about inflation or something else? are we nearing the end of the hiking cycle? jean-paul: it has nothing to do with short-term inflation. i think you hinted at a couple of minutes ago. egypt is gradually easing capital controls and emerging from a balance of amos crisis. as it does that, it needs to ensure to continue attract foreign capital. they have been successful in the tracking in the key bill market, but is not just about inflows. they look at egypt for the next half of 2017 into 2018, you are looking at what you would call trapped capital, the amount of capital inside the egyptian economy over the past few years that because of capital
controls, wasn't able to leave the country. as the central bank, if they are going to hold to their statement and the imf program of gradually easing capital controls, we have no idea how large those outflows can possibly be. in my view, this 200 basis point rate hike was printed and temporary. yousef: this is where the currency is at. it did not watch much -- move much. do you see further strength in the pound? i don't know what other analysts are calling, i am forecasting a target of 17, not far off to where we are now. yousef: we're at 17.1. ton-paul: it is difficult forecast the egyptian pound right now, in my view it is not being driven by fundamental practice. this is a tightly managed currency. there's nothing wrong theoretically with having a tightly managed currency. many countries around the world do.
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delivers consistent network performance and speed across all your locations. hello, mr. deets. every branch running like headquarters. that's how you outmaneuver. >> it is 8:30 a.m. in to buy. -- in dubai. separate trump headed meetings with leaders of china and japan on the sidelines of the g20 summit. in talks with the chinese president, they discuss ways of dealing with north korea. after meeting with the japanese prime minister, trump reaffirmed america's amendment to defend japan from any attacks. meanwhile, china and japan have their own meeting in hamburg. it was their first meeting in more than 10 months. with southmbers flew korea and japan.
it was a practice bombing run as part of a training mission. u.s. military officials described the mission as part of a show of force in response to north korea's recent missile tests. the south african government is set to release an action plan on economic reforms this week. the ims had recently issued a warning saying the country's economic vulnerabilities will become more pronounced unless growth is revived. do finance minister hopes to that. >> if we don't intervene in the south african economy and implement the programs we need to implement urgently to affect and if it continues to disappoint in the coming months and quarters, we are going to find ourselves in a situation where we might have to
seek foreign assistance. global news 24 hours a day, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. this is bloomberg. thanks. his companysays connect as a link between the gulf nations locked in dispute. he said on friday the countries involved in the spat have not allowed tensions to creep into their business dealings. >> we do the best job in each countries. i don't have to choose between them. i think what you have observed is that there is a disconnect between the political tensions and economics. we don't use business to escalate tensions.
working.ill they are producing gas and we are buying gas. it is a nice bridge between the countries. ,hat is why i'm going to qatar we have business, we have a big have the largest oil field in qatar. it is all business. i was in iran this monday to sign a new contract and i will be in the coming months. again, we are able to build ridges, not worse. it is the best contribution we can give to these. >> the contract you signed about -- signed in iran this week what about you and sentence -- you in sanctions? >> we are respecting rules. but i consider what we have done contribution,ea,
we are contracting to the government in iran and economy. we are seeing the spirit of the agreement that was signed in 2016 to try and contribute to the economic government. total. the ceo of let's take a close look at the oil markets with anthony paolo. just in terms of some of the key bearish forces in the market, you have u.s. rigs targeting crude at the highest levels since april 2015. what else would you pointed? -- .2? some of the stockpiles are coming down, they want -- opec wants to get that on the market and sold. at the same time, we see saudi
production pickup in june, according to our survey data. they are still below the quarter they have given themselves in the opec deal, but going into the deal, a lot of people were looking at saudi to do a lot of heavy lifting. when the deal was signed, they would straight below 10 million barrels per day production and now they are above that. it is really a supply issue. we have got compliance with the deal from opec largely, but we have other countries not nigeria, libya and namely, they don't have quotas in a bringing production backup. opec and some of his partners are going to be meeting this month and talking about potential other options, other ways they can act to impact the market. tracy: you will remember back in may, we had the saudi energy minister saying they were prepared to do whatever it takes to rebalance the market. what more at this point in time can they realistically do to
speed that recovery? anthony: that is right. be somethingely they will discuss, as i said, at this meeting coming up later this month. they may put some additional options on the table. would they cap libyan and nigerian production? alsoa cap iran, which is exempt from a quarter but not a country we see increasing production? it was just in may they decided to extend these cuts. opec has said all along it will take time. it will put these cuts in place through march of 2018. they have a lot of time and they want to see the markets working themselves out and it really depends how desperate some of these countries are to get the oil price up. we are languishing below $50 per barrel which is not where countries want to be. we will see how desperate they are to get the oil price up or if they will wait and let the
market balancing take place in its own time. tracy: anthony dipaola, always nice to see you. let's get more with an independent energy analyst and economist. i'm going to start where anthony left off. he says oil is li ka-shing below $50 per barrel. why do you think that is? what you think the production cut agreements haven't had the intended effect? >> there are many reasons, we had the unexpected increase even by opec. they were not expecting this large increase in nigeria and the bs -- libya oil production. if you go back to the summer, no one was expecting u.s. oil imports -- well production to increase. have all of this increase in production that was not accounted for. let's not forget the other side of the story. almost every bullish story, the media is turning areas. pointing to the
media. i want to put in perspective with a chart that shows u.s. production and opec production. dive into the bloomberg with me and you can see the opec daily production is actually increased from the last data point. they have come down a little bit but they are hovering at the highest level in some three decades. what is going to turn this around in favor of a more bullish story? you are saying it is to bearish. the data points to eight average story. anas: the other side of the story, if you look at u.s. oil production, the weekly data dataally is kind of fuzzy and we cannot depend on weekly data that much. stalled.roductivity if you look at the account, it
basically is increasing in areas outside of the shale, if you look at inventories, they are declining. opec compliance is still really good. there are all of those kinds of bullish sides to the story. you look at the saudi commitment, for example. we can't look at that and say, based on saudi interest. we need double digits. rose and get double-digit, that would do it. tracy: you are not the only one who is planning some of the oil price increase on the story around oil. we had an analyst last week blaming the bear market on fake news in the media. they presented a list of 10 market myths. one is the notion that nigeria and libya are ramping up production. walk us through what we in the
media might be getting wrong. getting wrong as much as, for example, the focus on the weekly data. let's not forget, the united states is the only country in the world that produces weekly data. , a portions fixated of the world, the weekly data. it is only a portion of the world. we have a different story and the rest of the world. it is really the fixation with the u.s. weekly data, although we cannot depend heavily on the weekly data. that is where i see the bias. yousef: part of that conversation, there are some comments from citigroup, he says crude oil could rise 35% by the of -- by the terms end of 2017. in terms of libya and nigeria in
the opec equation, is that the next step in convincing them to join the caps, in living up to the rhetoric from saudi arabia? anas: no one can disagree with the surprise on the upside. cap -- at agree to a cap is useless it away. it's not really manage libya and nigeria. i have a comment on libya in particular, which is it is easy to reach the top, but hard to stay on top. they have no investment in recent years, as you know. they need investment to maintain the high production. over the long-term, basically, without investment, their production is going to decline. tracy: quickly, can you tell us what you're looking at four in terms of science the market is rebalancing? anas: a couple of science. the first is we need to see those rows and double-digit, i'm
talking about like 11, 12, 15 billion barrels in u.s. inventories. and of course, the oil-producing comsumption over the summer. yousef: always a pleasure having you on the program. an independent energy analysts and economists. let's show you a feature on the bloomberg. it is really cool. we would like to bring your attention to the interactive tv function. you can find it on tv . dive into the bloomberg with me. you can watch us live, we rolled back to earlier, we were having an intense debate on the prospects of the egyptian pound. we will also have the key functions here on the right good tracy: if you are a bloomberg client, you can become part of the conversation by sending us
♪ this is bloomberg markets: middle east. jobs numbersthe out late friday and investors are looking to two more big events that are likely to add some meat to this barbecue. tracy: [laughter] that is making me hungry. there are two major events kicking off next week, janet yellen will be testifying to congress on wednesday and thursday. that is potentially her left congressional testimony as fed chair. we know a lot of people will be looking for any reinforcement from her for some of the comments we've seen from fed
speakers. look at the truck behind. this is becoming a big one. we've seen some speakers talk about valuations in stocks getting lopsided. we've been talking about doubles. it looks like the fed has financial stability concerns as a reason to tighten interest rates even if inflation remains low. that is one thing people will looking at. also, commentary on the reduction of the balance sheet and future rate hikes for the rest of the year. will we get two or three? the other story is the second quarter earnings in the u.s.. we saw the philip on thursday in the s&p -- we saw the selloff on thursday in the s&p 500. of particular note for next week, we have jpmorgan and citigroup both reporting on friday. we will see if the recent rise in yields has helped feet into some of the bank earnings. yousef: a jampacked week to look
for two. but get an update on some of the points just mentioned in terms of the emerging market space. we are enjoyed by justin carrigan. welcome back. was ins of the week it terms of margin marking currency, the biggest drop since march 3. be the beginning of a reversal in trend, or a more intensified disruption? justin: i think we are probably seeing the beginning of more episodes of this nature. ist we seem to be seeing now instead of the taper tantrum a few years ago, we are seeing and of, not so much tantrums, but dull groans from the market. it is becoming more frequent. it is like the market is coming -- becoming more adjusted to the rhetoric coming from central banks. what was interesting on friday was the u.s. data, we saw what
on the surface was quite positive in terms of employment, that the wage growth was not there. so how is the market going to interpret that in terms of what we could word the -- likelihood or frequency of u.s. rates? but yields rose last week, a were not more pronounced than developed markets. it seems to be more of a steady selloff. added to which, the selloff largely was not as pronounced as the previous week. is it beginning to ease off? that is the question we will see in coming days. tracy: we saw the rate rise in the associated want selloff -- bond selloff take place in the emerging market and not the ef market -- in market. why aren't we getting the reaction we are used to seeing? justin: this goes back to the base -- the debate about the strength of emerging markets. we are not where we were a few
years ago. look at current account, the rate of growth, that are than developed markets. the inevitability is you will see less risk kicking in to the high-yield in credits. yousef: in terms of the individual stores, south africa, the interview with the finance minister on friday, they are saying we need to boost the local economy to reduce our reliance on foreign capital flows. they talk. what do you make of it? justin: we've just come through this conference, the week scare was the talk about putting the central bank under state control. is thing about south africa yes, the economy is not any good place, but it is about institutional strength. it is about removing some of the risks surrounding the corruption investigations, the allegations of surrounding the president. if south africans can come to
grips with some of this, at a time when commodities are not doing particularly well, then we will come out of this. but is going to be a long haul for south africa. tracy: justin carrigan, i am so excited to have you on set. dullng is to the latest groans. coming up, tighter regulations on middle eastern carriers flying into europe. that is coming up next. this is bloomberg. ♪
has evolved and they are illegal. shares are currently of over 32% for the year. a different story in the bond space. we have won by, to hold and to sell spectrum. the central cooling company has a high recommendation. it is believed they will trade at two dollars 65 within five months. you can remember, it was a big deal in june, the french utility agreed to buy a 40% stake for about $475 million. also, carlisle holding thursday, they printed their first quarter loss at 383.5 million egyptian pounds. they invested in african infrastructure, it is been a tough time for the country. about 4% down this year.
finally, qatar national bank, an important story because they are expected to announce earnings in the less -- in the next 48 hours. we might it in indication of how they stand in the crisis. tracy: the rivalry between western carriers and those based in the gulf is going strong despite increased tensions in the region. take a listen to what air france klm told us about unfair competition with gulf carriers. , our goal is to -- wegoods to all of the carry one third of the goods in the world. of course, we are in the business of carrying people from one continent to the other. we are an actor of monetization. of having open frontiers. but it is also a strategic
industry forming countries. it is regulated free competition. here in favor -- we are in favor of it we are working to persuade our government and the commission to put together rules that allow us to work in these regulated environments and fight against unfair competition. >> is this something you are east, -- in the middle with some of your rivals in that region? >> mostly in the gulf area, where we have three carriers, they are huge carriers. in 2020, we're going to have 800 long-haul planes in america, 1200 in europe, 2000 here, and 1000 in the gulf. tose carriers are going
benefit from direct subsidies from the government. they're not really commercial operators. weapons ofkind of sovereignty for the government. the competition with them is not fair. the reason why, with other what the u.s. carriers have done recently, we are asking our government and the commission to put together rules that favor fair, edition. in the region, qatar airways to forto stop flights eric states, 18 flight destinations. is this something you are seeing a falling in the gulf region -- seeing evolving in the gulf region? >> i think the situation is very
toortunate because we need give up our business, not want this kind of situation, where some allies are operating some way. it is a political situation that has nothing to do what i was saying before. we don't want to take favor of the situation. thisonsequence of small, and we be hope it will come up to normal relations between the states of the gulf area and the allies of this country. andy: that was the chairman ceo of air france klm. in uncertain times, is nice to see some things never change, namely the antagonism between european carriers and gulf rivals. on in: we saw some moves
jonathan: from new york city, i'm jonathan ferro, with 30 minutes dedicated to fixed income. this is "bloomberg real yield." ♪ jonathan: coming up, payrolls top estimates, but wage growth disappoints. central-bank policy nervousness continues to grow, bund yields climb. protectionism dominating g-20, as emerging markets face a major test of a big year of outperformance. we start with the big issue, a bid for u.s. payrolls,