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tv   Bloomberg Daybreak Europe  Bloomberg  July 24, 2017 1:00am-2:30am EDT

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anna: america first no more. the drivers of the world economy are shifting as it maintains global outlook of it stemming the global glut, caps on nigerian crude production is expected to be rolled out as ministers discussed output concerns. eight days of protests. rallies continue across poland after the ruling party grabs more power over the nation's coal. ♪ anna: welcome to bloomberg daybreak: europe, our flexion
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morning show in the city of london. i'm anna edwards. we have a host of earnings. manus is on location. he will be with us later. firstly, from philip, this dutch company increasingly medical business, the maker of medical scanners and diagnostic giving us at their numbers. there up 4.4%. second quarter revenue, 4.3 billion euros. 6.14, only three estimates involved in that number. we will delve into the details there. 439 million euros. that company has been on a takeover streak come making numerous acquisitions including in the u.s. where it bought a maker of devices to treat cardiac diseases. they still own 40% stake in phillips lighting although that is part of the old phillips visit, if you'd like.
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they have been moving away from that area. they have been moving into the growing health care technology business. the outlook is what investors wanted to know. are they going to keep their outlook two raise our ability. -- to raise probability. we will put all of those questions, including questions around the performance of the business in the second quarter, to our guests, who will join us, the ceo of philips. he will be with us shortly on the program. let's get to our other numbers. first-quarter profit rising by 55%, confirming there for your net forecast, raising the 2018 traffic target. they told us their average has rose by 1%. the first quarter revenue came in at 1.91, ahead of estimates. there is a word of caution, they are saying their numbers have been affected by the movement of one quarter to the next. they are broadcasting 7% to 9%
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decline. the uptick in affairs, they are sticking to the decline fares mantra, something easyjet talked about on thursday. we sell their shares hit overcapacity, driven by weaker oil prices. their intentions to order aircraft. we will talk about that the cfo of ryanair, look join us for the first interview of the day coming up shortly on bloomberg daybreak: europe let's get to the banking sector. the wealth manager in switzerland. they are beating estimates over at julius baer. they are over 10 billion swiss francs, operating income, the number i have an estimate for. it's a tough ahead of the estimate of 1.56. some ages and numbers coming through. this is a company hiring
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aggressively, focusing on hiring as a way of boosting their assets and their net new money. hiring and buying stakes in businesses, raising their states. .hat is -- stakes that is just one example. they are trying to cut costs, setting off probability pressures and negative interest rates permit lost to discuss. manus cranny is on the ground ready to conduct that interview. he will be pouring over the details as i speak. let's get to the risk radar. this is where we are on the market overnight. the asia session a little lackluster, but it is pretty next. some markets moving higher, some lower. we are watching a host of earnings. on the earnings and slight, too many companies to mention. amazon, facebook, bmp, the
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banking sector, jim, ford, boeing, every sector covers this week. global stock at $70 trillion. the earnings season and the fed story, that is in the driving seat. the dollar against the yen, we have that for you. dollar weakness is the brought story. dollar weakness, is there event risk as jared kushner goes in front of the senate intelligence committee. is there invest -- event at risk -- event risk as capitol hill distracts the markets? we put the oil price in there as well because we hear from st. petersburg around the opec start. let's go to bloomberg first word news with juliette saly. juliette: the imf says of the world is relying less on the u.s. to sustain the recovery. they left its global growth fiction unchanged at 3.5% but
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says the drivers are changing. he was and the u.k. are now less crucial with china, japan, the eurozone, and canada playing more prominent roles. imf drop a simpsons from president trump's plaintiff to cut taxes and raise infrastructure spending. the uk's trade secretary will meet with his u.s. counterpart in washington today. -- preparesares to a transatlantic trade deal. u.k.'s fox says it will be a difficult discussion. ross. work at 16 he 7 billion pounds, some internal work -- 167 billion pounds. if we are able to remove the barriers we have, it will be a
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difficult discussion. to one extent or another, we have great support from the united states and the administration as well as congress to push the agenda forward. juliette: the trump administration's news trust secretary says it supports the current version of the bill to sanction russia for its actions as during 2016 elections. the comments from sarah huckabee came after democrat leaders in the house reached a tentative deal to move ahead on a deal that would prevent the president from acting unilaterally to remove sanctions on russia. u.s. senate democratic leader chuck schumer has it shall -- donald trump would trigger a classic is him if he fires robert mueller or pardons himself. he can't imagine his republican colleagues standing by if he pardons himself or dismisses miller. -- mueller. his lawyer says pardons are not being discussed. nigeria oil output from
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and libya was not be on the agenda for russia went ok oil producers meet today according to two people. both african nations say they a highed to keep at level before they join the global effort. producers including saudi arabia and russia are gathering in st. petersburg to assist the effectiveness and the international accord. it's not about adapting to market conditions or the market adapting to what we are agreeing. it's just with the assistance of , if i'mnical experts writing the dynamics of the current market which you will agree with me, has been increasingly complex. and challenging. in public, mass protests across the country have extended to an eighth straight night after parliament defies allies including the u.s. and
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european union, giving the nation's ruling party more control over judiciary. protestersion backs to veto the legislation which they say is not a threat to poland's democracy. emmanuel macron has seen his approval rating sink amid voter confusion on tax or four. and unease at labor law changes. secondting felt 10.254%, is the client so early in the job. he was elected despite never having held office and his lack of political base makes his position inherently fragile. global news 24 hours a day, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. you can find more stories on the bloomberg at top . a little bit of a weaker start to the trading week. we had a very strong two-week rally on the msci pacific index.
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holding 110 to the dollar. the aussie stocks are dropping. c&c spooner are saying they are testing their lowest levels. china and hong kong are looking good today. the indian semtech is at a record high. having a look at some of the stocks, one of the reasons it's supported is because of the ongoing movement in tensing. , hitting 300high hong kong dollars for the first time. synnex china is also at a record high. they say it's a win-win for both companies. something is a little weaker. we had a statement from grab saying something's investment the only grab can win in index you are seeing in asia trying -- having a look at this
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we have a number of these tech companies reporting in the --. this week that facebook like facebook and amazon. china is becoming cheaper than the nasdaq, a lot of downside in china. their small cap gauge is down 25% of the past year. he westgate has climbed more than 25% as of friday. all this concern about the stocks are perhaps not doing as bad as expected because china is looking cheap compared to the nasdaq. anna: juliette saly joining us from hong kong. let's get to the second quarter numbers and speak to the ceo of philips. his first interview of the day. great to have you on the program. let's deal with the earnings you just reported and then talk more broadly about the business. you reported revenue for the second quarter, which looks to be well below what analysts are
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looking for that i am guessing that might be something to do restating --g or likening or restating earnings. housing going to look in the second quarter -- how is it going to look in the second quarter? >> it's a discontinued operation. phillips is a health technology company. in that space, we have grown 4% and a quarter, taken a percent quarter intake growth, which bodes well because we are taking market share and moreover, our profitability increases by 90 days at this point. overall, a solid quarter and fully in line with our guidance for activities. anna: i want to ask you about the personal health business. you recently lost pizza note that, can you tell us about any succession planning?
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what does that leave this part of the business -- where does that leave this part of the business? worked sixd i have years together and i am pleased with his performance. i understand after six years he takes the next step. we have a strong bench within the company and there will be no problem whatsoever to select in the coming weeks his successor. anna: does this tell us anything about whether you plan to grow this business, sell parts of the business? what is the plan for this area? guest: we plan to go this part of the business. we have a deep conviction that as the world will have more patience with chronic disease and care need to move out of the hospital to the home, that this linkage between personal help in the home setting and professional health care in the hospital is a unique strategy
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and we see more and more insurance companies and health care operators asking to help them keep patients out of the hospital. and our personal carol, -- personal care, respiratory care, child care business, it's very well in this strategy. we are staying with it and it is going well and there is more growth and profit improvement to come. the best bid on an m&a .pree, buying up businesses what will the balance sheet look like when you have done all this? as we get the proceeds 10 from lighting and also the second quarter from the sale, we have a strong cash position. we have capital allocation policy is balanced. shareholders returns through dividends.
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we have announced a share buyback for the next two years of $1.5 billion. i've always said we would use the proceeds to strengthen the portfolio. the most important acquisition forpecter next, a leader minimal invasive procedures for patients. it fits well with the prior acquisition we did and already next year, it will be growth and adjusted -- it bodes well for our shareholders and fully aligned a balance capital strategy. anna: do you have a plan to sell part of philips? we spoke to that company at the end of last week. you do not own a majority, but you have a substantial holding. what is the timing on that? guest: we still have close to 41% and we will sell over time
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to zero. i have always said that. we want to be seen as acre play help tech company. -- health tech company. we have seen to shareholders that liked our focus as we move away from a holding company into a health tech operating company. it is a very exciting market and so overtime as we sell down lighting, we will use proceeds to strengthen our health tech portfolio. anna: we have seen reports coming out of the netherlands around the intentions of activist investors with regard to your company. have you any information about whether they are building a stake and are you acting mindful of the pressure that activist and pressures -- investors can apply? guest: this was a rumor that popped up in june. any publicot made disclosure nor have they sent us
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a letter, so i do not know if they are a shareholder. we do talk to many shareholders all the time. we see a lot of net tech shareholders coming in too long positions because they like our strategy and like our growth central to mid single digits. we have said we will annually approve profit by around 100 basis points for several years to come. with a balance capital allocation strategy, i think it is a story investors like and i am focused on just delivering those results. findingw much are you it distracting what is going on in washington at the moment? involved, areg you lobbying for types of changes in health care? 35% of our revenue is in the united states. we actually are a net exporter from the u.s., so it is a important country to us so
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obviously i am closely following what is happening. our customers are a bit concerned. they do not know what is going to happen with the accountable care act. we see that reflected in more careful decision-making around investments. nevertheless, in the united states, phillips was able to record a percent order intake growth. that is a testimony to strong innovation around clinical mathematics, diagnostic imaging, and also our personal health fully. great to have you on the program. speaking to us like from amsterdam. up next, we will be speaking to ryanair cfo. ♪ that is next.
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♪ anna: welcome back to bloomberg
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daybreak: europe. ryanair's airline posted 50% gains. the cfo is joining us. great to have you on the program. ahead line is a strong uptick in profits. beating expectations, but a big effect. help us understand that every guest: six week ago, we had a strong first-quarter aided by easter. that's what happened. easter fell in april this+++
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that had a good impact on the numbers. averages of 1% on the quarter. that was primarily easter offset by weaker sterling cons. anna: not something that can push up guidance? guest: when we came out five weeks ago, we saw affairs down 5.5%, we at easter in the back at that stage, so we gave the guidance we thought was right. that would indicate was down as much as 8% in the second quarter of the year, which is fantastic for our consumers. anna: i love how you turn that into a positive. fares rose 1% into the quarter. when was the last time we saw prices rising? tost: we are always trying give good value back to our customers. it's been a while. we have seen fares dropping as low as the euro last year. thes are down again in first half. we do think it could be down 8%. you relate to what easyjet said about low oil prices? there is a lot of capacity. guest: there is a lot of but we always have the passive numbers and the effects we take the price. we have the lowest cost of the airline in the market.
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every unit costs were down 6% in the quarter. there are seeing down 3% at a time when our competitors increased between 2% and 7%. we have a massive competitor. it enables us to offer a lower fares and stimulate the market. anna: are to the league by your luggage policy. to backs on board. guest: that is not ancillary. people can take a back on board the aircraft as well as get a seat on the aircraft. it's a phenomenal body. -- phenomenal value. ancillary revenue performed well. we have seen a strong performance on the likes of the reserves seizing the priority boarding. copies, neds, going very well. we expect that to continue.
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we are simulating other products. we are working very hard to increase penetrations on those as we invest the revenues we are getting from the other products that can do that. be flat on ait can four-year basis. according to italian media reports, easyjet has made nonbinding offers for alitalia. any comments to make? guest: we put an interest in before. yesterday it was the deadline and we put something in. one go into detail on what it is other than i think it is important for the largest airline that we are involved in the process. anna: you have a real interest or you just want to see in the books? guest: we have an interest to see alitalia survive. it's an important thing to see that they remain. we have 30% of the market initially, so i think it's important the largest italian character -- carrier dissipates
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in the process. anna: you just don't want those slots. guest: i don't want to give our deal away on the air, that we do have an interest in being a part of the process. anna: let me ask you about the boeing 737. he talked this morning about whether you are likely to take out those options. 10st: we ordered an extra maxis and the extra corner, which brings us to 110 for the aircraft. the first five of these into the summer of 2019, the first aircraft was not coming out until autumn, so that helps address to bury capacity. we are excited about these. eight extra seats, 60% more fuel efficient than the current aircraft we have and 30% commission reduction. it will help drive cost down in the future. anna: think you so much. great to see you.
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this is the daybreak. we will be live from st. petersburg when oil ministers meet today. you are looking at a live shot. this is bloomberg. ♪
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anna: welcome back, everybody. 111.09 is where we are on euro-dollar. that seems to occur. the yen up for a six-day dollar weakness. the event risk's running some of the tech news we will see in front of the senate committees this week. let's take a chat on the market. you are talking about yen strength as you talk against the dollar. we are seeing weakness when it comes to japanese stocks. this is nikkei volatility rising
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from a 12 year low. it jumped for percent, the most in a month. we are seeing losses in asian stocks. if you look at the asia-pacific index with energy stocks leading a lot. we are seeing gains in china and hong kong but a lot of other benchmarks hosting losses. there is risk aversion across the market as you are pointing to the head of the fed meeting we are getting an as you point to the event risk around the politics. this is the bloomberg dollar index dropping to its lowest since may 2016 on friday. it is holding those lows, the market is bearish on the dollar if you talk about hedge funds, the lowest since 2013. it's against most major currencies as well except the yen. the chart is approaching supports. it might break them, what it is arguing is that the long-term macro downtrend is sacred keep an eye on the technicals because if you look at the relative strength index on a 14 date
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raises, the bloomberg dollar index is looking oversold but it is playing short-term against long-term. the10-year, eating into dollar as well, we saw that drop nine basis points last week. it managed to break through the 50 day and 200 day moving averages, which is what i showed here. though it is steady right now at 2.24%. anna: let's talk about the oil story. they are trading lower $46 a barrel this morning. the secretary-general of opec spoke ahead of the meeting. it's not about adapting to market conditions or the market adapting to what we are doing. the quantity the group of technical experts to evaluate the dynamic between the current market, which you will agree with me, has been increasingly complex. and challenging. dynamics that have
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been increasingly challenging and complex. who better to speak with us then yousef gamal el-din. what can we expect from today's? -- from today? yousef: there is punt the at stake here. -- there is plenty at stake today. the president of opec is confident the rebalancing is working. today is an important day and more importantly so because the monitoring committee comes here in an expanded format and they have more leverage this time around. in the past, you would look at the data and say this is the state of play. givethey can do now is recommendations on the basis of that data. that brings up some of the key things we have been speaking about in the last few weeks. what is going to happen with libya and nigeria and numerous sources say it will not be high
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on the agenda. that's what the secretary general alluded to as well. howother is going to be, can you accelerate the rebounding casas -- rebounding process? that will be a tricky one. did they have to say about the oil outlet price? yousef: he was confident and update. he always is, but he was especially upbeat. if you take a closer look at what is happening with some of the inventory, you take a look at what you can expect for the demand story in the second half. this is what he had to say. placeh of what is taking both onshore and offshore. there pretty sure rebounding process maybe going at a slower pace than we earlier courseed, but it is of
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-- but it is on course. it's bound to accelerate in the second half as of those numbers. to start late different realities being presented here if you take a look at what jpmorgan put out. they sent opec is becoming less compliant toward the end of 2017, 22 a risk of a domino effect. they are seeing material stock built globally. it's interesting to find out who will turn out to be right. anna: we will keep an eye on what is happening in st. petersburg. yousef gamal el-din, thank you. we have a senior european economist at citigroup in the next half hour to put all kinds of global things in context. let's start with the oil prices, we talked to you set about bringing this in balance. this chart is expanding out.
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this is what is difficult about the smoke and mirrors of the opec story. they cut about -- they talk about cuts, but cuts result in increased production. how much of a headache is this for the world you watch? oil prices have been on the rise and central banks thought they would catch the break. guest: it makes our inflation forecast a bit wobbly. they riseriods where and other periods where just because of what is going on elsewhere, inflation falls away. year, first half of the we had this easter affect when easter was in a different time before and in particular europe, it makes it difficult for us and for central banks to interpret what is going on with underlying inflation. is it heading up as we expect?
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the decline in unemployment, is that driving up which pressures or isn't it an is is unthinkably different from what it was before and what is that mean for monetary policy? anna: we talked for a long time about how economies are supposedly decreasing the sensitized to the oil price. not as sensitive as we once were. i've got here the fed. the less inflation below the goal for the lowest since 2012. syllabus of this is oil, some of it is technology. the fed is not close to where it wants to be on inflation. guest: indy. if we look globally at the best has seemedthe trend to peak. in particular, in the u.s.. in europe, we are confident it is very gradually edging up. i know means not there to be
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confident that things go back to shape of the wa phillips curve. this is the big macro question that we have. economic where the recovery seems to be doing, the imf has been pointing out, it's broad-based, it is relatively strong. what is missing is the link to inflation that we used to have. anna: let's get a few more lines on the imf story you mentioned. the tribes of economic recovery are changing, they are saying the world is relying on the u.s. and u.k. less than expected. it lowered its outlook for the united kingdom after the soft third quarter. has not changed that, but they changed at last month. the front that down last month. the growth's story regarding the
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imf relying decreasingly on the united states and more on other parts of the world. we kind of knew that but this is reiterating that. this global story. guest: i do think the u.s. story and a fiscal stimulus story is important. the imf has taken it out, but we think there will be tax cuts as opposed to tax reforms. with knowledge of tax reform is going to be increasingly difficult. see how complex the other issues are that donald trump and the republicans are trying to get the congress, the health care bill and so on. tex reform will be extremely difficult, but tax cuts are so possible and we do expect them by the end of the year and we do expect there to be increased growth. if it doesn't, it does not affect our global growth forecast. perhaps the global economy depends less on the u.s. then at the beginning. anna: are you happy being more
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optimistic about what the president and his him assertion to deliver that maybe others out there? you happy with that difference? guest: it keeps you on the toes at the moment. theing he is still with european and other forecast, depends on the u.s. forecast being right, which implies tax cuts. it keeps you on your toes. i do think the story is pretty clear. we have the next elections in the u.s.. the republicans will want to show something after a year where not everything has gone according to plan. i think tax cuts is the easiest way. there is also one way to get democrats on board. they are going to find it more difficult to vote against tax cuts than health care reform. anna: the dollar has been weakening around this. around this is appointed from capitol hill and the lack of delivery on the ground from the illustration.
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do think we can put a floor under the dollar if the market comes around to picking, we might not get what they promise, we might get this level of tax cuts? guest: we do expect the dollar to strengthen again as it becomes clearer there will be tax cuts in the u.s.. back down to the 110 level against the euro or even lower, or about that putting on how you see it. we do expect that to happen. in the long run, that may change. the eurozone has this concept that needs rebalancing. the economy needs strengthening. the dollar may weaken again. but in the short run, we see the dollar strengthening against the euro. anna: thank you very much for your thoughts so far. he stays with us here on bloomberg daybreak europe or it if you are a bloomberg customer, you can watch the show using the tv country on your bloomberg. as well as getting all the
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regular video stream, you can follow along the charts and hutchinson we use during the program. you can influence the conversation by clicking the button that says, ask guests a question. is tv, but better. mass protests continue in poland for the eighth day. that story is next here on bloomberg. ♪
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anna: welcome back, everybody. 6:45 here in london. sunday night for some people, but sunday morning for others. the s&p suggests it will be weaker at the start of it european trading day. testimony to the very static committees. that is something that affects market. --'s get the bloomberg is business flash with juliette saly. juliette: ryanair has reported a 55% gain in first-quarter profit. net income jumped to 397 million euros.
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beating estimates. europe's is low-cost airline cost and pricing will be competitive for the remainder of the fiscal year as overcapacity crypts sales. phillips has reported a 50% rise in first-quarter profit. performance in western europe, north america, and china. the diagnostic also said it has a plan to buy back one 5 million euros in shares starting in the third quarter. deutsche bank and jpmorgan have a great to 81 $48 million to resolve claims they conspired to manipulate the rate. they will cooperate with investors from other banks. the california state teachers retirement system to 21 banks. three brokerage firms accusing them of manipulating the rate from 2006 22011.
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southeast asian right taylor grabbed has raised $2 billion to help set off uber. it's the largest ever investment fund raising while $500 million is investing in new backers. it will climb to more than $6 billion when the latest fundraising closes, making it the most viable startup in southeast asia. captured byw images a marine robot shows what is thought to be melted nuclear fuel inside of one of the reactors in fukushima. it shows these substances at the bottom of the number three reactor is likely to contain melted fuel. it will take time. the a crinkle step in cleanup in one of the worst disasters in history. the world war ii epic dunkirk has stormed to the top spot at
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the north american box office on its weekend debut. crist for nolan's film is being talked about as an oscar contender. it's bringing and $50 million girls trip, from universal, which took $30 million. that is your bloomberg business flash. anna: protests in poland has extended for another night as parliament has another lawgiving parliament more control over judiciary. they urged the president to be told the legislation. for more, let's speak to our euro chief who joins us on the phone. thank you for talking to us. bring us up-to-date. eight nights of protests. what is next in this story? guest: good morning.
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we have a couple options with legislation. [indiscernible] sorry, there is a problem with the line and i not sure what our viewers are going to get much of the insight you are giving us. thank you for your time if you can hear me and we will try to get a better life for you to speak to us next time. story, theoss the senior european economist at citigroup is still here with us in london. your thoughts on this developing story. i was reading a piece on the bloomberg this morning about the extent to which the government is trying to challenge the judiciary. we have had eight days of protests. put that in context for us. guest: europe politically seems
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to have calmed down in terms of market view on europe since the french elections, in particular. coming from last year, the trump inferendum, france, there was expectation france would follow the populist trend and would be more worrying in europe than anywhere else. the french election was a bit of a watershed moment. if you look forward to the next four years, you take the german election and italian election, that could cause the odd rebel here and there. in general, things seem to be coming down. there are issues not related to elections and the polish and hungarian issue, these are issues that have been in the background. tensions are brewing in the case of poland, they have seemed to come to a head. anna: that says the eastern block apart some of the bigger countries in the eu.
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i wanted to talk to you about the polish economy or what we need to watch. there is a lot riding on this developing story. the currency suffering its worst debt since 2013. the strength story will cushion how weak it gets here. we are watching politics rubbing against the economics. guest: for hungary and poland, these governments, the economic success these countries have had in europe, things were not going to well, it was an important part of their success story. they have not always been in power so we have take this with a grain of caution, but a good economy helps governments push through their agenda. it is going to continue? in the short-term, it is not too unlikely it will continue, but things will come to a head when we discussed the next eu budget, the big one from 2020-2026.
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in the context of britain leaving the eu, that could your bidding to the budget anymore, these eu funds that come to poland and hungary are several percentage points of gdp in these countries. if europe decides it will save money because britain leaves and the net intervenors like germany and france do not want to make up the balance, that means less money for poland. that will have an impact on the economy. that is where we see who has more bargaining power, the polls, the hungarians, or the germans and the french. it looks easy. but they have to give europe together. they have to keep europe united, keep the you you -- eu united. it's a complex process overall. anna: talking about france, we saw the population -- popularity of macron in the last month, losing 10 percentage points in
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terms of popularity in france. that is not great compared to previous presidents and how they looked in the early weeks of their presidency. a crest of aiting wave, there was bound to be disappointment and setback as soon as he came into contact with the real issues tried to deal with. ,his is not to do with macron but it has been booming. how do we match the growth story in france with the politics of the moment? guest: this chart is interesting. we look at it on friday in comparison to the eurozone because there are other factors owing on. although becoming cheaper helps consumers across the eurozone and that is part of the story here. it's interesting because consumer confidence in france always jumps around presidential elections. that was the case in 2012 and is now the case with macron. it falls very thickly after
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because their hopes are disappointed. has macron really made hopes? he has not made promises. like in 2012e rich that would lead to the social giveaways. what he had promised is a big labor market reform. people will perhaps lose their jobs because of it. 30 inthe fact he left the the most recent weeks, some people suggest it's a flat with the military also to do with what the labor form means. it could be something in the summer months and beyond start to dominate the combination -- conversation in france. , they by all the workers cannot lose their jobs and the younger ones make up for the lack of flexibility by only having temporary jobs. he is trying to change that. the good news is that he is doing it at a period where
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unemployment is not such a big issue in france anymore. the economy is doing well. beosing tough reforms may easier and times where the economy is doing well, but will we have seen, even in the good times, the older workers resist these kinds of changes and perhaps they resist them even more than during bad times because the bad times they understand why they are necessary. anna: it's interesting to see the backdrop of strength in the european economy and how that plays into it. the imf upgrading their forecast of germany and france, the month to -- the momentum is with europe. guest: indeed. the confidence and soft data has been strong for some time, suggesting growth of 3% annual. which is strong for europe. hard data has been slow to catch up but it is happening now. that is leading the skeptics to up great their forecast --
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upgrade their forecast. anna: thank you for your time this point, we appreciate you coming to see us this morning. in just a few minutes, manus cranny will be sitting down with the ceo or scarring. manus is standing by and he will give is a preview of it -- preview. manus: good morning to you. the ceo has the curtain raiser for the swiss bank bonanza. he has delivered assets, under management nicely, he has the play of global climate. he hired 166 bankers, the strategy that appears to be working. asia, middle east, monaco delivered the results. he spoke to the analysts and gives his first interview of the day to bloomberg. the cash holders are still too high. the cost to income ratio is improving. can he sustain the numbers as
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the competition heats up in asia for the space of the millionaires, the billionaires. we have the ceo, can he triumph in asia? ♪
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anna: drivers of the world economy are shifting. cruden nigerian production expected to be ruled out as oil ministers discuss output today. live in st. petersburg. massive rallies continue across poland after the ruling party grabbed more power over the nation coal. ♪ anna: welcome everybody come on
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our flagship show this morning. i am and what words. we are waiting for numbers to come out. household products. revenue at 2.4 billion. a at 66.6, down going into this set of results --to how much the first time since it was acquired. the business in england also suffers from a cyber attack which disrupted manufacturing and distribution during the most recent quarter. the results, one of them being the global cyber attack. , the ceo ofh year deliverpany fails to
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sales growth for the first time in history. the company in the second quarter giving us an update. we will keep an eye on the stock at the start of the trading day. you looking at comments coming through from mitsubishi, over $39. they're going to acquire narrow u -- for $39 -- ner neuroderm. keep an eye on that story in those sectors. let's have a look at where we are on the futures. this is what the picture looks like a cross equity markets right now. next to say the least. what is going to be the first trading day of the incredibly busy week. all kinds of events on the
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calendar, $78 trillion as we watch from a host of businesses. amazon, facebook, m&a clearly a big focus. --subishi, buying also, creditector suisse, deutsche bank, ubs, etc.. also in the oil sector, plenty reporting. on the risk radar you can see where we are on the level traded story overnight. watch out for earnings this week. the decision looms in the middle of the week. assets, they call for watching for testimonies that could be interesting. jared kushner is going to be in front of the intelligence committee today. trump jr. in front of the committee on russia in the election and that happens on wednesday.
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a lust to look forward to in terms of event risk if that is what you're looking for in the market. yen up 45th day. let's get the bloomberg first wp -- word news. is relyinghe world less on the u.s. to sustained recovery. elect the global growth production unchanged at 3.5%. the drivers are changing. if there is a u.s. and u.k. come less crucial with china, japan, eurozone, and canada. the imf dropped assumptions from a boost of plans to cut taxes and raise in the structure spending. preparing for a transatlantic trade deal as soon as possible,
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even after leaving the european union. difficult a discussion. before making members of congress during a two day trip. done7 pounds, we have internal work but it could be worked over a 40 billion. a 20 30th we are able to remove the barriers, that will be a difficult discussion. to extent or another, we have group support from the united rates and as well as congress. two help push the agenda forward. the trump administration press secretary supports the current vision of its bill to sanction russia for the actions during the 2016 election. the comments from sarah huckabee sanders came after a democratic leader in the house each to a tentative deal to move ahead on
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a measure that, among other things, would prevent the president from acting unilaterally to remove sanctions on russia. chuck schumer has sent donald trump -- has called on cap a cataclysm if he called desk fires miller. he cannot imagine his republican colleagues standing by if trump moves to dismiss mueller or pardon himself or someone under the investigation. that comes as even one of the lawyers are not being discussed. russia, limiting oil output from nigerian and libya will not be on the agenda when opec and others meat today. according to people familiar, both african nations will keep pumping as a high-level before they will join a global effort. gathering in st. petersburg to assist -- address the effectiveness to pair of bush --
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outpush. >> the market is adapting to what we're doing, just the assistance of the joint technical committee's and technical experts to gather in the dynamics of the current market among which you will agree with me, has been increasingly complex and challenging. mass protests have continued to an eighth straight night after the parliament defying allies including the ,.s. and the european union passing legislation giving the nation's ruling party more control over the judiciary. urgedposition protesters president to veto the legislation which is a threat to problems democracy. global news 24 hours a day powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more , you can findries more stories on the bloomberg at top . anna: thank you very much.
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the first bank has exceeded market, management increasing at 6%. let's go to manus cranny with the company's ceo. much, as ik you very said to you earlier, boris welcome to the show. 10 billion swiss francs, you're the upper end of the range. management of, at the front of front halfar -- the of the year has been good. best half it is our year ever. even above our target range it has exceeded expectations. that is on the back of very good momentum. all eyes on green. manus: the question from the sustain -- is it
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sustainable from the job of got it from, be, trading income is done. that's appetite from the clients, trading is down by 23%. at momentum,look it should be maintained. obviously we're going to be continuing to navigate in our target range. i'm not going to come up and say we have a new target range. in good times and bad times we will deliver before-6%. i have every indication that the environment should continue to be positive. trading has been back in the markets. i think we've we're -- what we are hearing this morning bodes well for private banking clients activities. i think we should receive clients in the market. manus:'s are a bit of an indication of their for more volatility?
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>> volatility has been historically too low. people were worried for a while about the fact that volatility was not there. i think this is just one of the one isdicators, the main market sentiment. everywhere clients are getting positive on average more than what we have ever seen in the past. manus: they are getting more positive, is that more -- just on the line of equities? are they looking to cross classes? >> equities, equities, equities. fixed income looking as physicians in mixed income -- fixed income are looking for performance on the fringes of the market all the way to private equity. i get together with you and you say i have landed a holy grail from china. the traps,re out of
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he wants to create a $3 billion wealth management business. to dogetting harder business offshore in china? give me a sense of what is going on in china? >> i think we are getting to a perfect constellation for wealth management firms onshore and i think local players are also getting the feeling that they need to evolve their model to be competitive. direction, go in one market performance has been patchy over the last year. people have been invested in products for professional long-term diversified wealth management. there will be lots of local players and international players. people want to understand what the next step is for you whether it is onshore and hiring again. you hired 166 bankers last year.
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they were senior relationship managers. is that we get more of from the asia strategy? >> i think you're going to get three things. expansion,ographic we are going more and more regional so you can expect us to continue expanding in asia. building on the strong upsets we have and maybe adding other centers in the future. going onshore. second thing we're going to continue higher -- to higher senior professionals. thirdly, to continue to look at the market or inorganic opportunities. >> was a wonderful phrase for acquisition. willis be a core part of the strategy buildup? >> i think it is a core part but opportunistic. manus: i talk about what management every day.
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pboc, tell me what that means. china getting to grips with what management. or the consequences? >> there are two things that are going to happen that we are seeing already happen. the money that these offshore will stay offshore. will continue to be managed long-term lower risk. i think the focus is going to be onshore to professionalize high net worth individual practices to the international standard. that is where the flow is and that is where everyone will go in the next. manus: is there a risk in that? >> i see only risk of the transition going from the current industry where i think there has been a vast number of places offering a lot of products, i think they are not up to scratch. the transition from that -- the
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products, that has some risks. manus: that's could prove a benefits for you. a better relation in the industry will play to your brand. >> in china one of the keep rocks beside diversification will be multigenerational wealth transfer. i think we are getting to a first wave of entrepreneurs on wealth and enterprises for the next generation. that is something i think we do since several generations. manus: one last question, you've already made a statement this morning. the target range of 64-68%. your outside the bandwidth. what does that mean for a ceo? how do you get to the bandwidth? >> we have made already quite a leap from the second half of last year given the fact that last year we invested quite a lot. we are focusing on two things,
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improving and deepening the revenue base clearly, i think we have seen that growth has not come at the expense of the margin at the first time. secondly, very strict control investment prioritization. we're confident we will get next year into the target range. with aback next to 64-68%. on pausejulius baer is in regards to the u.k.. are you still on pause? have you changed your mind? the latest on your brexit discussions. >> we are still on the same position. we are not shifting resources, unlike others, not necessarily making grand plans for expansion other than developing our same strategy. beenood news is maybe rare
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on invested in the u k and we still have room to grow in the years to come. manus: you'd be prepared to catch more to the u.k. even though we don't know the brexit outcome? >> we are seeing a gap in the market. there is a market sure to grab retracting who are from other firm strategies that are not as focused as they used to be in the past. we are trying to play that segment. manus: give me your global view. macron offering tax incentives. we hear every day, we hear stories of bloomberg bankers moving positions at frankfurt. in your mind's eye, the consequence of movement jobs. once they go, once a ceo decides to transfer jobs from london to franklin, how difficult is it to get those back? >> nearly impossible. take a perfect
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constellation for these to move again because moving jobs is not only about moving physical tasks but moving people, missing investments, infrastructure, and i think in any reasonable company we have to do that every planning cycle so i don't think these jobs are going to go back anytime soon. manus: you must be looking at centers, brantford, paris, part of the consideration. movement, a skew at the moment. would it frank for work for you? -- frankford work for you? >> i think frank ford is for us number one. it will become number two. for strategic consideration we have decided to move to luxembourg. and frankfurtourg
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will be the backbone of our strategy with a third location continuing to be. manus: you mentioned the imf. as aw your strategy geography, the imf has upgraded the forecast. in part for sentiment. >> excellent news. our business model, -- manus: do you feel the change? >> the mood has gotten back here if you talk to investors. it has gotten better. europe is always slower. reactit is less fast to to market sentiment or changes to it is also going to be a longer cycle.
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>> is finally on the currency. the levels keep going for you. news?t good do you see that continuing? is there a risk that they could fall behind the curve? >> i think it is good news. we have more strengths and on weakening ofe, any i think theanc national bank is looking at the department possibility. what it takes besides all the intervention. outlook perspective and policies following.
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we should see the level to be the new floor. manus: great to see you. good luck with a strategy. back next year with the target again. vicki so much for joining us. a very bullish boris. equities, equities, equities and more equities, and you let's hope these continue to rise. anna: the conversation on the drive through asia, i see you later. plenty more bank earnings coming up this week tomorrow we get the best from spain's bank. thursday, deutsche bank am a bpa, among bpa -- lloyd, we get credit suisse, on friday. let's have a quick look at the markets at this hour. 10:20 in london cannot 40 mins the start the european equity trading day. -- london. 20 minutes until the start to the european equity trading day. fairly disparate around europe
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this morning at the start at what looks to be a incredibly busy week. the tens here at 0.51 right now. a quick check on the markets in the middle east. no doubt of what is happening with opec and russian colleagues and others meeting to talk about rebalancing that market. markets of by .3%. let's get a bloomberg's miss flash. -- bloomberg business flash. juliette: ryanair has reported a 55% gain in first quarter profits. strong summer bookings swelled revenues, up to 397 billion euros. beating estimates. europe's is low-cost airline cautioned that pricing will be competitive for the remainder of the fiscal year as overcapacity crypts fares. a 15% rise in second-quarter profit after it stuck to its outlook for sales growth.
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the maker of medical scanners and diagnostic here also set a plan to buy back 1.5 billion euros of shares in the third quarter. that is your bloomberg business flash. anna: thank you very much. a host of earnings out today. we are also very aware of the politics this week in the united states. the trump administration supports the current vision of a bill to sanction russia according to the new white house press secretary sarah huckabee sanders. scaramucci, weny must guarantee president will sign it. joining us from hong kong. you spent a long time on capitol hill. ont can we expect this week the inquiry into russian meddling in the election? collusion with the trump campaign and his associates? personal, the testimony will be behind closed doors. this will not be public testimony. the president's son-in-law and key advisor will be testifying
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before the house and senate intelligence committees. also in a deal that is still being worked out, the former campaign chairman from esther trump, paul manafort, and donald trump jr. will be turning over some records and will be testifying as well behind closed doors. the real investigation, the one everybody in washington and around the world is watching, is led by robert mueller. andme all investigation interference by the russians in the election is the one to watch. he has the unprecedented legal expert latitude into these matters. president trump himself warned crossing a against redline into looking at measures beyond the russian meddling. andan look where he wants we will start to see some of
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that in coming months. anna: the russian sanctions to watch out for, then we have the senate intelligence committee and the senate committee on russian meddling. health care, i suppose that is on the agenda. what else? >> yeah, health care. mcconnell, the senate majority leader, says he wants to put a health care bill on the floor before congress leaves for august recess. it is unclear so far whether it is going to be repealing the afford will care act or whether it will be repealing and replacing. the question is whether they have the votes. susan collins is a no. arizona senator john mccain was diagnosed with brain cancer and is likely to be home in arizona. they can only afford to lose one other vote or they will not be able to get it even to debate on the senate for because no democrats will vote for the bill. anna: thank you very much. lots to look ahead to.
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joining us from hong kong, let's turn our attention to europe. protests have extended 48 consecutive nights after parliament passed a law in the ruling party more control over the judiciary. tens of thousands of people have been holding peaceful demonstrations against president we --, more understand the 300 political site is reporting later on today. >> that is right. the president is going to meet officialnior court that stands to lose their job. the goal of the lawmakers passed is excepted by him. this is a scene -- this is seen as a good sign. there will be a start of some discussion with the judiciary
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about the overall. anna: in the meantime, do we wait for further action from the eu? both the eu and the united states have criticized the actions of the polish government. >> in fact, john mccain said that the reform is one step back for democracy. we are waiting for wednesday when the european commission is expected to start a procedure against poland. towardsbasically a step sanctioning poland which is unprecedented within the eu. anna: wants to watch for them. thank you very much. joining us to update us on that story. half an hour to go until the start of european trading day. here's what we are watching. a 55% gain in first quarter profits. ryanair very much up to the four. phillips of 15% at spivack,
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saudi in the first quarter have no idea if the shareholders right now. that is a look at some of the stocks we are watching. this is bloomberg. ♪
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♪ anna: we bring you the first trade of the day. anna edwards alongside matt miller it was in berlin. here is what we are watching at this hour. in bloomberg surveys suggest the fed will make a symptom or balance sheet announcement. what will it take to get a dollar rebounds? the market needs more oil output from nigeria and libya to balance the market. we live in st. petersburg for the meeting.


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