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tv   Bloomberg Markets European Close  Bloomberg  October 4, 2018 11:00am-12:00pm EDT

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guy: here are the stories we are covering from the bloomberg and around the world. the bond market selloff ripples around the globe. stocks and bonds following, inope and asia, now falling the united states however the treasury market shows signs of stabilizing. with the payrolls tomorrow, is it a force in the action? chip was behind the most significant supply chain attack ever conducted .gainst u.s. companies u.s. authorities are now . u.s. authorities are now investigating the money laundering scandal engulfing denmark's biggest bank. .hares as a result fall sharply
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let's talk about where we are with the markets. the bond market certainly at the center of the action. we have yields picking up, prices. declining. ,tp's have been on the move bunds on the move. bund market trading down by .ix basis points the cac has suffered the most today. there is a concern surrounding -- asf its luxury slot stocks and chinese consumers' ability to buy them. the ecb is looking at an operation twist to reinvest in bonds. brent down 6/10 of 1%. taylor riggs, what have you got? -- as stocks and chinese consumers' ability to buy them. : on the major averages, everything is lower, including the nasdaq. the story you were talking about , chinese launching an attack. that is pushing the nasdaq and some of the tech stocks lower,
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although everything is in the red. some of the movers like constellation brands and eli lilly, because we are kicking off earnings season. asstellation brands up 4% they report earnings per share and topline revenue growth beating estimates, and forecasting earnings per share higher than estimates. eli lilly had a drug result foreign and spare mental -- for .n experimental diabetes drug they are seeing potential to hit obesity, so shares are up about 3.5%. come into my terminal. this is a very interesting story. everything is in the red except for the financials. they are up 1%. financials are expected to start reporting earnings next week. it comes to the bond selloff we
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are seeing. the 10 year yield just keeps rising. not long ago we were at 3% and we are at 3.20%. 3.25% to 3.5% are the next key levels. looks like an inflation trade here today. vonnie: taylor riggs, thank you for that. for more on the surging yields, we are joined by ira jersey. also in studio, cameron christ. what sticks out about this move? people think it started with fundamentals but it seems to have gone beyond that. ira: we broke some key technical and you round up seeing a move that increased quite substantially. one of the things is that at the to of the day, rates tend
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move in these step functions so we wound up moving to a new range. we will pop into the top range and when we do, we will stabilize. is it the next key technical level or something higher? that depends on where market sentiment goes. vonnie: is it possible to say how much of this increase is related to term premium and how much is inflation expectations? ira: most of it is not inflation expectations. inflation expectations have only couple of basis points. reald yields have been driving this move and that has been the case all year. -- have only sane the moves seen the moves over the last few months or so. if that were to change because of a blowout jobs report tomorrow, that could change the story and you could wind up seeing a larger selloff.
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guy: what are the implications for the asset prices? youron: in the near term, have to say that an explosive move higher in yields like this does bring a warning bell for the stock market on a tactical -- tactical basis. if you look at the last couple of years in the trump era, every five basis point move on the twos and tens is worth about 20 points on the s&p, roughly 1%. we are sort of 12 basis points steeper from the lows on the weve which would suggest should be roughly 70 points on the s&p from the highs, which translates to about 2870. that would argue for more weakness moving forward but it is not necessarily tolling the bell on the bull market. we need to see much bigger moves in rights and more rate volatility -- moves in rates and
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volatility to indicate something seismic is going on. guy: let's talk about chair powell. do you think he is comfortable with the market reaction we are getting? greenspan used to finesse the message a little bit. you think we will get that out of powell? ira: i think the market move is interesting for the fed. they were worried about curve flattening and what that was signaling for future growth. the fact that you have the curve steepening and the real yields rising is a positive for growth, and inflation expectations, that is the goldilocks scenario for the fed. the risk that chair powell has is at some point if he keeps up with this rhetoric, the market will price in additional hikes further and faster than what the market is currently pricing. if that happens, then the curve re-flattens a lot. we have not had a significant
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repricing of a faster or a higher terminal rate for a fed hike. vonnie: has the easy money been made? ira: when you look at positioning of things like ,utures, treasury futures speculators are as short as they have ever been and that product. the question is where is the pain? if every speculator is short the non-speculators are long. where those asset managers feeling this pain? this credit spread widen significantly. i will not say it is sustainable but it is not causing as much pain as it would if you saw a more dramatic change in the positioning among the asset class. vonnie: we are seeing a selloff in u.s. equity indices today and it could be as a result of the increase, the dow hitting a record. .t could be a reaction to this
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you would imagine at least consumer stocks would get hit, not just because of the rate rise but data was slower than we might have anticipated. cameron: the durable goods numbers are super volatile. i would not read too much into that. the average 30 year mortgage rate in the u.s. is the highest it has been since 2011. we have seen some evidence the housing market is coming off the boil. if these long bond yields continue to rise, that will put further upward pressure on mortgage rates and pressure on the housing market even more. we need to keep an eye on the oil price as well. oil has turned into something of a goldilocks asset in the sense that if it goes up too much, it puts a squeeze on consumer disposable income because you pay more at the pump. obviously, if it goes down too much, that pressures the
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producers which we saw in 2015 and 2016. as long as oil, the absolute value of oil on a year on year basis is 40% or lower, up by 40%, down by 40%, somewhere in the middle, the environment for equities is fine. when that move exceeds 40%, that exerts downward pressure on the stock market. we are at the threshold now. if the oil price continues to go up and gas prices rise more aggressively, the average regular gas price is about three dollars a gallon in the united states, if we see that go above three dollars a gallon we could see consumer retrenchment. guy: you cannot drive halfway to work. it has been the question of the .ay that we have been running any different take on when that
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ende story will ultimately up feeding true into developed nation agencies? .ameron: it varies by market you have to gauge what the central bank sensitivity -- central bank sensitivity is to inflation and what the price at the petrol pump is. in europe, taxes represent a higher portion of the price of petrol and thus there is a here than inass the united states. is maintaining the stance that, we are ending qe but will remain accommodative. it is easy to argue there is probably less of an impact in terms of a monetary follow-through in europe then perhaps there could be in the united states. an interesting problem for the fed if headline inflation starts printing 4%, and wti is $100 per
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barrel. guy: how wide does the treasury bund spread debt? powell is talking about asymmetrical approach. -- a symmetrical approach. at that point, is the ecb behind the curve? that will feed through the fx markets and a bunch of other markets. the monetary policy can do merge for a long time and it is possible to continue to see the bund treasury spread wide and further. nf u.s. gropes -- wide further. how much will europe backup directly to this u.s. back off in yields? ira: one of the things you have seen that often occurs in the
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bond market, you have treasuries selloff first and then asia follows and europe is the last leg, and then you recycle back to wherever the kind of focal point of that selloff was. you can maybe get 10 year bunds up to 50 or 60 basis points if the u.s. markets continue to selloff. otherwise, it is likely to see some stabilization gives you have talk about this operation twist potentially going on to buy short-term bonds to buy long-term bonds to keep interest rates low. ,onnie: thank you to ira jersey joining us from our princeton .ureau, and cameron crise let's check in on the bloomberg first word news. courtney: the head of the senate judiciary committee says an fbi report on brett kavanaugh found no hint of misconduct. chuck grassley said there is
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nothing in the report that lawmakers did not already know. a vote on kavanaugh is set for tomorrow. the final confirmation could be over the weekend. u.s. authorities have accused seven russians of a wide range of cyberattacks, accusing them of going after anti-sports .oping groups the charges were announced hours after dutch and british officials say they had foiled a russian military hacking attack. vice president mike pence will accused china of meddling in the upcoming congressional election. according to excerpts of a speech, he says china has campaign of propaganda as part of the trump administration's campaign to increase pressure on beijing. it is the most significant known supply-chain attack against u.s. companies. operatives from a unit of the tinyse army implanted
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microchips and servers that made their way into data centers of some of the world's biggest companies including amazon and apple, allowing the attackers to create a doorway into the networks. disputedd apple have summaries of the reporting. global news 24 hours a day on air and @tictoc on twitter, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. i am courtney donohoe. this is bloomberg. guy: thank you. let's talk about the markets and where we are. we are 15 minutes away from the closing of the european markets this thursday. payrolls tomorrow, a hugely significant event. the bonds selloff in the united states yesterday proves this idea that the trade noise is getting a little bit more negative. that is floating around the market. the next -- the dax was closed yesterday. intraday, euro-dollar trading
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at 1.1519. a little bit of a pickup. you do have the story floating around that the ecb is looking at some sort of twist operation. euro-sterling trading a little softer, the pound picking up a little bit of pace. the cable rate going through interesting levels around 1.30, up 7/10 of 1%. sounding a little more positive and the fact that theresa may, may be looking to push through brexit legislation has been a factor. archetype all been on the move. you have a -- markets have all been on the move. we await with keen anticipation the arrival of the italian budget. we are 14 minutes away from the european market close. this is bloomberg. ♪
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♪ vonnie: from new york, i'm vonnie quinn. johnsonlondon, i am guy . this is the european close on "bloomberg markets ." time for a look at some of the biggest business stories in the news right now. found their shortest -- latest short target. block announced a short position in the man u life insurance subsidiary the just concluded a trial with the hedge fund that could lead to billions in losses. shares fell as much as 4% before rebounding. shares and bonds -- barnes & noble are rising the most in six years. the booksellers says multiple parties expressed interest in buying the company, including
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the chairman. he has promised to vote his shares in favor of any deal recommended by a special community -- committee of independent directors. american risks press -- express is retooling its gold card rules. holders will get four points per dollar spent at u.s. markets and supermarkets, twice what was currently on offer. they will get $120 credit when they eat at certain restaurants. that was your bloomberg business flash. vonnie: a quick check on markets this side of the pond, after yesterday's bounce, indices are in decline. the dow comic yesterday we hit a record. 7/10 of 1%, just -- the nasdaq .s the laggard, down 1.3%
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jet stocks on decline. the 30 year yield is up 3.36%. points -- 20 basis higher from the selloff. ira jersey telling us we will have to wait and see where we find our new range. like to point out that senator mitch mcconnell is speaking right now on the senate floor regarding the fbi kavanaugh investigation. he says the facts support his denial of the allegation. he says none of the allegations have been corroborated in the fbi report. i want to mention that susan collins, republican, is saying the investigation was thorough, is continuing to read it, and will talk more about its contents later on. this a key vote should this proceed. this is bloomberg. ♪
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♪ seven minutes until the market close in europe. i am guy johnson. vonnie: i am vonnie quinn. oil prices are falling after touching their highest since 2014. earlier the russian energy minister told us uncertainty over global supply will drive oil higher. >> the market is reacting to fundamental things, but there are various factors which outweigh fundamentals of supply and demand. they are acting more to -- andinties which are these risks and uncertainties are connected to sanctions. of course, to gdp growth, gdp growth rates which are affected by sanctions.
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i think that there is very little chance that such market sentiment would change during the next month, at least until we have some clarity at the beginning of november because no matter what happens to supply and demand, there will always be the risk of sanctions affecting it. i think that no fundamentals can outweigh that uncertainty factor. >> do you not think the market is pricing and the fact that you are at record highs and that potential a means that your spare capacity is at record lows? >> i think we should not only be looking at russia's spare capacity, but the more complex picture. the market is looking at shale oil production growth rates, venezuela and north african production declines, and the overall spare capacity which the market currently has. i think only by looking at that can we understand that is what
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the market is doing. >> we always talk about prices and there is a range of 60 to 70. it is 85 and some people say it could be 100 at the new year. are you worried the prices are too high? >> such concerns do have some again, i wouldce like to say that such concerns exist and the price is somewhat high do to uncertainty factors being embedded into the price. current levels are maybe a little bit high. willwe think the markets be striving to reach is a balance that will be stable and acceptable to producers and consumers, and a bit lower than what we see today. themain event today, present has spoken about a range be$65 to $75, which seems to an acceptable level for consumers, and
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ensures enough cash in the sector to reinvest and allow us to develop. guy: the russian energy minister speaking in moscow earlier. with thes flirting nine level right now. the ftse 100 down 1.1%. 1%.dax down 3/10 of the company said carvalho in the spotlight. the cac the big loser, luxury stocks under pressure. we are counting you down to the european close. there are three minutes to go. this is bloomberg. ♪
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♪ seconds until the close of europe's markets this thursday. france in particular down. a bright spot in the middle of
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europe, luxury stocks under pressure, and the london market has been under pressure as well. germany was closed yesterday. it is insulated from the losses we have seen elsewhere. the ftse elsewhere -- the ftse around 93 that translates to about 1.25%. the dax was closed yesterday. the market i want to focus on is 1.5%.c out of paris, down the broad global selloff we are seeing, and the s&p is flirting with some key lines, 2900, the cac is down because some chinese news affected it. let's show you some of the names . i want to focus on the luxury stocks, lvmh has been trading down 5%.
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chinese consumers may be being checked on their purchases of luxury goods outside the country . we are seeing a doj investigation into the largest bank in denmark. is a chemical stock that will be affected by the higher oil price. you can trawl a line through -- draw a line through what is happening in the oil price to bank.emical stock to the it is a big day for the market. there is the normal spike we get toward the end of this section -- session, liquidity around the close. we have seen an outside day in terms of the volume that we normally see in terms of the surge we normally see around the close. vonnie: a lot of weakness in assets in the united states, not
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so for the dollar index. 114, with approaching yields higher as bonds continue to selloff. .he 10 year at 3.20 percent just 16 basis points between that and the 30 year. point 53 for a barrel of crude -- 75.53 for a barrel of crude. you can see the weakness of the russian ruble, oil security coming off a little bit. the yen is reading very close to 114. the pound enjoying some strength as well. ,ussia and australia are higher and the united kingdom bears watching, yields higher on a selloff on fears related to brexit. steel, aluminum,
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natural gas, and copper selling off as trade these -- seems to be going nowhere. guy: let's talk more about these markets. the bond slump we are seeing around the world, regina borromeo joins us now. let's talk about what we have seen here. how significant is the move we saw yesterday and how well it ripple through? 12 basis points in the 10 year u.s. treasury, it is a reflection of how strong the u.s. momentum is in growth. ofhave gone through a period extreme q e globally and now we have seen a lot of the developed market economies showing momentum and growth and potentially pushing through. we are seeing an adjustment period. this is the reason why our positioning, we are shorter duration. we think you will continue to see higher rates as well as the shift from dependence on central
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bankers to essentially some of the growth momentum we are seeing in the u.s. guy: at the moment, there is a very flat curve. if i believe inflation is coming , i want to be paid if i am earning something further down the curve. why am i not being paid and how well we reprice? regina: we are starting to see a steepening of the yield curve in the u.s. guy: it is very small. ofina: it is a reflection the term premium has been low for so long and there has been a shift in sentiment. maybe be we are underpricing the inflationary risk. there is not a pickup in inflation expectations yet, but if you look at the anecdotal wages and changes we are seeing in large corporations, you are starting to see changes in minimum wage. the labor market is very tight so there is a risk that we are
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underpricing inflation in the next quarter. vonnie: if you believe that, how positioning in order to take advantage of that? rates: our position for to selloff, we have steepened hour trades. growth momentum continues, we are positive in the u.s. dollar, especially against em currencies. dollarnvironment where liquidity is decreasing and rates are rising, and at the same time there is a potential risk of oil prices continuing to spike up, this is a combination that is quite difficult for emerging markets. cautious in em and continue to be cautious in em. credit has done very well, has been very resilient in this volatility. even when you look at the last 48 hours. we are cautious as well in this
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part of that cycle in credit. vonnie: cautious in em but you did mention that some of the em currencies are trading cheaply. are you buying them or using them to buy local currency bonds? regina: we are sticking to our view that we like the u.s. dollar against em currencies, particularly asia. we do like the euro at this level to the dollar, in the 1.14 21.15 level. we have been adding to euro recently. we are looking at value opportunities in em but our longer-term view is quite challenged on the macro side. we are being very careful on m opportunities. -- e.m. opportunities. guy: what do you think of oil at 85? what would be the implications if we see a further move up? regina: that is a tax the global
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consumers and back to the em theme, for countries that are net imports -- importers of oil, that will be an issue. one of the things you look at is the moves in fx, particularly for the net employ -- importers, have been underperformers. guy: what do i do with my stock market portfolio if i believe my rates are going higher -- rates are going higher and the fed tells me stocks are going lower? we are flirting with 2900 on the s&p. would you be a seller? regina: i am not an equity investor, but one of the things we see is that in rising rates and a steepening yield curve, financials have done better. you see that divergence in performance. you saw u.s. banks perform well yesterday and euro stocks, the banks outperformed today. financial stocks went relatively
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outperform. with rates higher, cash is delivering you a return now. i think there is going to be a move in allocation. one of the risks on the equity side is if the u.s. rates continue to rise, dividend paying stocks do not look as attractive and might show the shift more into fixed income because fixed income is giving you an income as opposed to what we saw before. vonnie: we had a massive comcast offering this week, over three times subscribed. comcast posted $20 billion worth of debt. where our corporate looking attractive? do you see opportunities down the scale when it comes to actual credit rating? firm, we think as a are -- when you look at our credit beta positioning, we are
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cautious. the reason for that is when you look at the investment grade dollar market in the past 10 years, that market has changed significantly. ago, about 30% or so of the investment grade markets thebbb market is still half of the i.t. market. , and we have incredible credit teams, but i think you need to find a manager that essentially cannot only pick the winners but miss the losers. in this part of the credit cycle, you want to be able to not only get income but protect capital. in credit, particularly high-yield, it is missing those idiosyncratic risks. that is how you can really outperform through the credit cycle. guy: you have to do your
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research. regina, thank you so much indeed. regina borromeo joining us here in london. let's catch up on what you need to know. here is courtney donahue. according to the head of the senate judiciary committee, there is nothing in the fbi report on supreme court that kavanaugh -- supreme court nominee brett kavanaugh that they did not know. found no hint of disk on and said it is time for the vote. democrats say the fbi may have been constrained by the white house. dutch and british officials say they stopped russian officials attack herea cyber to included anti-sports doping groups, soccer's international governing bodies. they were trying to interrupt efforts to investigate russia.
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demand for workers in the u.s. is still strong. filings for unemployment benefits fell last week. jobless claims were down. the september jobs report comes out tomorrow. we will have full coverage. u.s. consumer sentiment has reached a 17 year high. there was record confidence among republicans and improvement across economic financials and purchasing moves. democratic and independence were substantially less optimistic. global news 24 hours a day on air and @tictoc on twitter, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. i am courtney donohoe. -- donahue. this is bloomberg. let's talk about where we are with the s&p 500. we are trading 2901 so we have a session low.
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these are lines in the sand. sometimes they important and sometimes they are not, depending on market positioning. we are trading right back at that level and it will be interesting to see if we get a touch below 2900 on the s&p. this is bloomberg. ♪
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♪ guy: time now for our global battle of the charts. you can see these charts and use these charts by g tv on your bloomberg. let's kick things off. gina joins us now. gina: my chart comes courtesy of michael redman from the canvas it -- kansas city fed.
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the fed has been expecting job gains to moderate since 2016 and they have not. as we expected tomorrow, they will continue to not. what is interesting is what is going on underneath the surface. if you look at services, they have moderated very much as expected since 2016, but production hiring has really stepped up. that is keeping everything going a little bit higher. whether this trend continues will tell us whether or not job gains can remain at or better than where they have been this cycle. guy: great stuff. vonnie: we will definitely talk to her after the payrolls report. i have a chart about brazil, because you all know what is coming up, and election that really has brazilians divided and disillusioned. the leftist and rightist candidate are very much the in
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net. the brazilian rail has been realgthening -- brazilian has been strengthening. it is a world gains among emerging market currencies, breaching its 100 day moving average and is trading around the 3.90 bark. we will -- mark. we will keep an eye on that. guy: i am slightly obsessed with the brazilian election, so i think i'm going to give it to you. we are keeping a firm i on the election e --he on the currency and the election. we will talk more about payrolls tomorrow. vonnie quinn wins. said, there vonnie are some amazing charts on the
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bloomberg and you can pop them all out. they are all there. this is bloomberg. ♪
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♪ time for the stock of the hour. today is dance go bank at of copenhagen, very much under pressure -- dance go bank -- dansko bank, very much under pressure. u.s. authorities are investigating a money laundering case. we have a series of criminal investigations taking place. hey have toppled the ceo of -- you continue to see more difficulty surrounding what has been going on. later on, nejra cehic spoke with the danish financial supervisor.
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>> the bank is solid, generally exceptionally well managed. here,ea we have looked at i would not see any likelihood of massive changes in relation to retailer customers. obviously, there will be some, but danske is not the only bank that has it -- had issues with money laundering. guy: you can use this for any stock and it shows you one of the key metrics surrounding stocks like this. 52 week high, 52 week low. low.e at the 52 week the other thing i want to highlight is the consensus rating around this, has yet to really move. buys on dstill 17
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bank. not theto say they are only bank under investigation for laundering and that that is supposed to be somehow ok. -- that is supposed to be somehow ok. we have a bloomberg exclusive. the most significant known supply chain attack against u.s. companies chinese inserted tiny microchips to infiltrate the data servers of almost 30 u.s. companies. some of those companies disputing some of bloomberg's reporting. the company that assembled those chips, the story is in the latest "bloomberg businessweek." joining us from washington is the author, jordan robertson.
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this is potentially terrifying because if everything is true and the story and these microchips are in servers, that is within the corporate complex and the military complex of the united states, and china could possess everything from intellectual property that the u.s. produced in the last 10 to 20 years. this storyh rest of is that 2014, 2015, as we military the chinese inserted malicious microchips into the server motherboards of servers going to major u.s. companies, including apple and amazon. the real danger as you point out is that these malicious microchips activate permanent infections that you cannot get rid of on your computer and you will not even know about it most likely. the only way to clean the infection is to get rid of the machine. a have created all -- they have
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created ultimately a backdoor between -- into companies. the chinese military hacking apparatus has taking a big step forward in terms of capability of altering and tampering with thatter hardware in areas very few people outside of government intelligence services can look. vonnie: you have 17 sources at the upper echelons of these companies and organizations telling you it is true, the chips were inserted during the byufacturing process units of the people's liberation army. it is very cinematic. i'm curious as to what can be done to undo this problem. jordan: one of the aims we have with the story is that this hardware security is a problem that has kind of been off the radar screen. it has been off the radar screen
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for the majority of organizations. securityis hardware baked into their security process, it tends to take a backseat to a lot more of the easier types of security to deal with -- software security, at work security, web application security. we hope it shows -- shines a yout on this issue that if run a large organization, you have to look at your hardware. if apple and amazon found these chips, they found these devices, and that is not an accident. you have to go looking for those things. that is a testament to their security teams that they found the stuff. that is kind of a model for the rest of the industry, for these issues otherwise you will never find them. suggestion theny u.s. does similar things to china? jordan: absolutely. the documents by edward snowden
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shows the u.s. is a master of hardware manipulation, but it takes a different form. the u.s. is no longer the dominant manufacturer based for i.t. equipment, so what the nsa does, they have gotten very good at interdiction, intercepting the shipments from one place to another and modifying the firmware. the advantage china has is that it owns the manufacturing and the assembly base for globalized computer equipment. the chinese intelligence get very can in theory good at moderating hardware at the factory level. that is a real big advantage that officials pointed out. briefly, doesery this provide some sort of backstop to the idea that the u.s. should not be using chinese equipment when it comes to telecommunication networks? this presumably backs that idea up. jordan: in a way, it does and
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doesn't. chinese officials have caused u.s. officials a lot of concern. when it comes to outsourced computer i.t. hard work, test hardware, supermicro is far from the only computer i.t. equipment that makes its equipment in china. vonnie: jordan robertson, thank you for that. let's check in on the s&p 500. the index is lower by 8/10 of 1%. estee lauder and ralph lauren among companies dropping at least 4% in the s&p today. "balance of power" is next. ♪
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david: from new york, i am david westin. welcome to "balance of power." china chipe on the pack that infiltrated u.s. andnesses, judge kavanaugh, the meeting of oil ministers. anna, let's go to you first and talk about judge kavanaugh. the senate is moving quickly on this. mitch mcconnell is determined to get this done by the end of the week. senators are looking at the report today. republicans say there are no corroborating evidence against judge kavanaugh. democrats are concerned that it was not a thorough investigation. it side has retreated to their different partisan quarters. we will


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