tv Bloomberg Daybreak Americas Bloomberg October 19, 2018 7:00am-9:00am EDT
china's third-quarter gdp disappoints and leaders intervene to stop the deepest equity selloff. italy, beware the spread. investors flee from -- industrial indigestion. honeywell delivers on organic growth. >> welcome to bloomberg daybreak. i'm david westbrook -- i am david westin with alix steel. better than estimated 16.5 earnings since $1.12. world's is one of the dig is oil services company's and it missed in the top and bottom line. they earned about $.43 a share. it is about the commentary for this company. is it going to be offshore or in the u.s.? have big exposure internationally.
there europe-africa business came in a touch light. middle east and asia a touch stronger. north america crushed it. their weakest is africa and europe. they be on the net interest margin which is good news. losses,ovision for loan it seems like there taking a lot more -- they are taking a lot more earnings-per-share. alix: it is interesting because some of the big banks, their provisions were lower. i wonder if state street is loaning more. ago, we little while got the honeywell earnings out and they were right on the nose with revenues. they beat on the earnings-per-share. they put down there earnings guidance from what it had been. they are trading up in the free market, little more than 3%.
alix: a little due to spinoffs. david: it should help their cash flow percentage. alix: earnings fun on a friday. systems markets, you are taking a look at an s&p. but it is thents average you are going to want to be watching. it is a mix dollar story with a little bit stronger -- little bit weaker. euro-dollar a little bit of. -- bit up. here in the u.s., 10-year yields goes nowhere after yesterday's pummeling of equities and buying of treasuries. brent up .9%. looking at those go straight weeks of declines. david: we are joined by michael mckee. we are joined by rachel evans. -- when thoses
china numbers came out, that was our first story. coming off a little bit on the gdp growth. how softening is the chinese economy? michael: it is slowing down and the chinese has been resorting with the traditional ways of dealing with it. it doesn't seem to be working. what -- that is what has a lot of investors concerned. 22% of the companies have pledged 30% of their shares to lenders to try and get advances on their loans. this is a problem for the private sector. the government always steps in and bails out the state-owned companies. there is not a lot of confidence in the chinese economy. the cook there was a softening -- david: there was a softening in consumer spending. china has a lot more retail participation. lot morethere is a
retail but it is a much smaller stock market, and a much smaller conservator to people's incomes. -- smaller contributor to people's incomes. contribution from trade but you have to look past that because a lot of that may have been trying to get stuff out the door before sanctions take place. alix: talk to me about flows? rachel: if you look at u.s. flows into china, they have been pretty neutral. people have tried to pick the bottom. it is flowed into fx i. unsure. a little it is an interesting -- asia's etf a little unsure. it is an interesting richer. -- interesting picture.
that is giving the market liberty to test and see whether the pboc will allow it to pass at seven. alix: we had mike here talking china gdp but he did not bring a chart. [laughter] alix: are you feeling unwell? let's get to our second story. that is what is happening in italy. the boom threat jumping higher. also, rachel, i was interesting in the european stock fund seeing the biggest stock flow. how broad-based? talk about contagion. little we are seeing a bit of that showing itself in spanish and portuguese yields. nothing crazy yet. we are watching closely the italian bund spread. we saw spanish and portuguese
yields climbing eight basis points. not huge but it is starting to be interesting. letter -- a letter yesterday that was very current. -- very blunt. that is going to be interesting. if the italian's try to adjusted, they are going to look weak. david: they had not seen this before. this is a big violation. can they afford to do anything about it? michael: this is a different situation because what happened in greece, the problems were already there and hit. now the problems are two calm. -- our too calm. more? europeans say no the austrians came out and said we are not going to pay for your problems going forward. we had to do it with greece because it was already there.
david: you got some people in italy saying that is fine. if you don't want us in, we will leave. first?: who crack's the government? the leaders are fighting with each other. five star posts to have a cabinet meeting to discuss when they are. -- sylvain he says, i am too busy. i'm playing with my kids and we are not going to have a cabinet meeting. that coalition could fracture. they have the issue of can you afford to back down if they seem weak politically? we go into another government and the problems don't get solved, but maybe they don't get worse. the code new government, -- david:, new government, italy. alix: the rough october that the
u.s. has had an earnings. helping.d earnings not it is the underperformance of the s&p versus the rest of the world. how the divergence was holding up the u.s.. are we berating --re-rating? rachel: we have been seeing people go overseas. big inflows into big international funds and out the s&p. the bigs s&p fund this week, that is on track for the worst week since june. a big trading vehicle. there is a lot of volatility. people seem to be looking outside of the u.s. days: we spent several talking about how far they diverged and now they are coming back together again. michael: i wish i knew longer-term. the most telling thing is we are seeing forecasts. it is not the earnings we just
had but the forecast for the next couple of quarters are for revenues to decline significantly. you want to look at the revenue side because people are not spending more money, the economy is not going to be growing as fast. we have gone from double-digit gains the forecast for single-digit gains. basically around 5% to 6%. alix: take a look at netflix, they crested. had a good outlook -- they crushed it. had a good outlook. doesn't seem to be an industrial story. it seems to be all across the board. rachel: rachel can maybe they'll me out. one of the things i keep hearing over again is we cannot look at the trade like we did five or 10 years ago the cuss so much of it is driven by automatic program
trading. they are just looking for movement so they pile in and pile out. it is hard to analyze on a very short-term basis what is happening. rachel: trading does seem to be accelerating in and out of stocks because people have to rebalance their leverage fund. the active support for the space is much better -- much bigger. more of a machine based, kind of motor trading. to the point about earnings, we are looking at a lot this week. the same there isn't enough to have earnings hitting expectations anymore. we need to see something more significant. alix: michael mckee and rachel evans. you are good to go. china's growth is slowing.
-- in venmo. american international group expects to report losses because of natural disasters. hurricane florence caused billions in losses. aig estimates that hurricane michael may have cost up to half $1 billion. company cut the asset value of its dupont agricultural business by $4.6 billion less than nine months before its scheduled spinoff. that is your bloomberg business flash. alix: china's outlook darkens and the economic growth stalls. the country's gdp grew its slowest pace since 2009. the government calls it severe international situation. amid a trade war with u.s..
joining us now is christopher soak -- zook. how are you invested? christopher: we are invested in the private markets. this is a slowdown that we need to pay attention to. right now if china continues to go down the path they are going down with slower and slower growth. it is going to have an impact on the worldwide economy. we are going to go into more of a risk off mode. david: we are going to pull up a chart. the blue number here is gdp growth. gently trending down to the yellow is industrial which is trailing off. how do you know you can trust the numbers? christopher: the numbers are difficult to trust because the fact it can be manipulated. i'm not saying it is. you have to take everything with a grain of salt. we have to look at more
information that may not be as apparent on the surface based on headline numbers. if you get below the surface, you can feel the slowdown and you can see some other indications throughout the economy. david: you are invested. does that give you some sense of the state of the chinese consumer? can you see it go up and down? christopher: you can a little bit. the math is just so large. you have such an incredible tailwind of new opportunity and new markets, it is not something .hat gives you day-to-day data the consumer is doing ok but they are looking to save money. that is where a firm like -- reduce congestion and reduce emissions. the data is hopeful but it is not a complete indicator. alix: can you make a distinction between the small medium-sized company and sme's.
-- s o ease. what is the beneficiary for you? beneficiary ise going to be general stock prices and general companies themselves . we are not as invested in the public markets over there because we are concerned about valuations and where things are headed. the private markets don't see the impact of the talking up of the economy or the talking up of the market. david: what about leverage? we just heard a report about municipalities. trillions of dollars. state owned enterprises barring a lot of money. is that a danger -- borrowing a lot of money. is that a danger? christopher: eu cannot have that kind of leverage without growth to eventually pay for it. what is off-balance-sheet? what is off the books that we do
not see is scary. it can be a major problem if it is not addressed with growth. we are not invested in many of the areas which would be most impacted which is real estate. they are going to be more sensitive. alix: how do you look at your ?nvestments christopher: we are very cautious in general. it is something to where we don't like general liquid markets. there are pockets of opportunity. when you look at an expensive market and if things that are shifting down and if you look at the slowing down of the economy in china, it is hard to get excited. that is not where we are today. david: christopher zook stays with us. there is a red headline crossing the bloomberg.
president trump will meet with president xi. that had been rumored before. alix: i wonder what the rhetoric will be? the pressure that you see. david: it is such a big deal because there's a lot of speculation. there is more maneuver room for the president to do a deal with .resident xi we are going to talk about honeywell and the industrials. live from new york, this is bloomberg. ♪
turn to karen ubelhart. still with us is chrysippus and -- is christopher zook. let's get back to honeywell. honeywell has been better, really met on the news -- on the nose the revenue. people were anticipating bad news and there wasn't any bad news in the release. they were big on the margin side. .rganic growth 12% in their automation business. across the board good news and they raised a little bit with a quarter left. the best is behind us. david: --hina -- no mention of material cost. terror impacts. -- tariff impacts.
alix: honeywell did well and the stock is up. we have the full screen that shows a beat or miss for some of these names and how dramatic the stock moves have been on the day they reported. united rentals, 15%. even though united rentals beat in theory, the stock still hammered. what is this telling us? karen: people have been worried for a while, are we at the end , prices are? people going to go down and they are very capital intensive. the tariff impact being bigger than expected. people went in worried and now they are looking for the things that are negative. the united rental numbers were good. the outlook is still good but hasn't beentton it
set. christopher: they are executing at a high level. i am in the camp of i am concerned about where we are in the cycle and when the recession will come and it will come at some point. thing that weg are seeing more than anything else is wage, push, tighten inflation. how much are we just going to have to go up to continue to get the team they need to be able to execute? as a result of that, it could create some pressure. that could have contributed to some of the weakness. people have been anticipating the downturn for six to nine months now. china is big. that is a concern. they are looking at a glass
half-empty. alix: i like that you said that because three weeks ago, it was a glass half-full situation and you are going to buy cyclicals over defensive. pause in the narrative? >> i think this is a shift in psychology. we are at that point where investors are starting to think more about the downside. .hat psychology changes quickly once it begins to shift, it is going to take something pretty dramatic to reverse that and have everybody become positive again. maybe it is tax. maybe it is something new about the economy or maybe it is something with china and the trade dispute. that could be the trigger to have us head back higher. where if youe time
own cyclicals, you own the multis, you own honeywell, everson. that is your safe bet. honeywell should be a place to be if the concern persists. alix: caterpillar monday? karen: the worry is going to be there. that is one of those cyclicals that people are worried about. alix: karen ubelhart, thank you so much. this visit will be sticking with us. the gloves are off. the italy -- italy is going head-to-head with the eu. the market gets at. just gets hit. -- the market gets hit. this is bloomberg. ♪
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it is going to be about honeywell hoping to leave higher. european stocks go nowhere but italian banks continue to get hit. off by about 2%. he saw a lot of money come out of european equities, the most in 27 months. let's look at the board and see what is happening. we are off the highs in the session. 370, it is like a self-defeating cycle. euro-dollar climbing a little bit higher. yields in the u.s., they don't really go anywhere. brent up by 1%. david, it is a rough two weeks for crude. saudi arabia and any headlines are going to be interesting for commodities. because there will be headlines. -- david: there will be headlines. killed,rns out he was
-- let's find out what else is going on, taylor riggs is here. taylor: economic growth slowed more than expected in the third quarter in china. gdp rose from a year ago. ae government acknowledged severe international situation. chinese stocks rose after officials moved to shore up confidence. the government is trying to prevent the biggest selloff since 2015 from affecting the economy. and president trump will meet at the g20 summit in argentina next month. earlier this week, a white house official said a meeting between the two was likely. italy's populist government is facing off with the european union over its budget. the prime failed to convince leaders that italy should be -- the eu commission
sent a letter to rome calling its spending plan excessive and asking for an explanation. global news, 24 hours a day, powered by 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. i am taylor riggs. this is bloomberg. alix: you can see that divergence when you look at the spread.read -- bundled 400 seems to be the line in the sand. christopher zook, do you like italy? christopher: i like things that are distressed. i don't like things that are chaotic. you have a situation that you could not make up of italian government deciding they don't have to follow the rules. people not wanting to meet because they don't have time in order to reconcile these issues. speaking of the two leaders and italy. there's a good chance that the
italian government is going to have to be revamped. that is going to cost italy have to give into the eu. that is going to create more chaos, but it is going to create significant opportunity for investors who are willing to step in. inid: we have seen this europe from the netherlands, to france, to germany. is the market properly discounting that kind of turmoil? christopher: i don't think it is discounting it enough yet, but there will be a time. one of the advantages of being able to be opportunistic is when that spread blows out and people are just running for the hills, that is going to be an opportunity to step in. the market is not counting how bad this could get. alix: foreign investors dumping behind in august and we saw european stock funds with the
biggest outflow and 27 weeks. -- in 27 weeks. which is debt and spain stood -- what you decent debt and spain's debt getting dragged down. >> once this gets reconciled in italy, there will be opportunities. the safer opportunities are more likely going to be in the traditional banks in the rest of europe that people were afraid might be affected. nothing really changed. david: that points to one of the biggest problems which is opportunity costs. people were expecting economic reform in europe generally. the banking sector right up at top. they are so distracted with things like the italian budget, they are not getting that. does that make europe a less attractive budget -- a less attractive option? christopher: the biggest concern
we have is valuations are not cheap. we would rather get into a situation that is less than perfect. violations are not perfect but they are really expensive -- valuations are not perfect but they are really expensive. we would like to see opportunities for there to be more consistency over the next decade. in the interim with a deal with what we have. david: broaden it out. if you look around the world, all the asset, where are the opportunities you are hankering for? christopher: we arthur maddock in what we do. -- we are thematic and what we do it we have three major themes . the growth of private equity as an asset class and managers are getting bigger. the wide sharing revolution where you have this massive wind at our backs at how many people are going to use ridesharing.
sharing opportunities in the sales where there is a mismatch of sales an opportunity. those are our major themes. we are watching the public markets very carefully. alix: how much money is in the sector that else to drive up valuations? how does that factor? christopher: that is a quick question and that there is so much -- a great question in that there's so much money. in some pockets, private equity is absurd. where you have 11 or 12 times ebitda and six times leverage, that is an area we will not touch. we elected general partners that are benefiting themselves. that is a tremendous opportunity
to benefit from the growth of private equity as people are coming out of the equity markets. there are some pockets where things are relatively valued. outflow can be created by going into a company. maybe it is a situation that is less than ideal but it is -- but ebitda.buy less than we can look at opportunities there. there are great opportunities in venture capital as well. yet revolutionary change going on. -- you have a revolutionary change going on. i can't, it is the press yesterday. we invested alongside the report and in a company that printed a home from a 3-d printer and a cost that literally changes the
game for people who don't have suitable housing, for them to be up to go out and build 100 homes in a matter of weeks for people to get out of cardboard boxes and move into proper housing. very interesting things that are not going to be general public market opportunities. david: wow. alix: i have to digest that. chris: it is made out of concrete, it is incredibly stable. it is like any other house. buts early in the process it is something that can literally change the game. david: we have gone from sears and roebuck. that is amazing. zook, kazr investments.
alps.hat hitting the they hope to attract new customers at a brand-new resort. one business will take you to uncharted territory. rolls-royce goes off-road. it unveils its first ever suv costing more than $300,000. .ishing for your supper this new york restaurant allows you to get a line into its fish tank. unreal. bitcoin joining us now is christopher zook. great stories -- david: joining us now is christopher zook. despite the name, not going to the alps. chris: we did this key package and we said the headline was go skiing at club med. people don't realize that this thing they think of as a beach also has 24 options for skiing in europe and it is very
inexpensive. that car a lot of kids go? programsere are kids and they will even do babysitting for kids six months and above. you just show up. they have the diapers and playpen. everything $199 and up. david: it is not that expensive. alix: it is a great thing that i don't like skiing. if there is some hot top and hot chocolate, i am good to go. it want to stay in the snow and you want to get a good hike, you can call a powder matt. guy whoe featured this runs hiking and skiing trips out of the bugaboos in canada. he takes all of these ceos and politicians up for hikes out alone in the wilderness. people really find themselves.
it is a great experience. we sent our writer on. david: these can be really expensive. $500 and can start at it can go up to $15,000. alix: take someone who is super scheduled and super stressed. within in a different environment. don't.y, really that is the point. chris: get you out of your comfort zone. give you an experience you would never have otherwise and make you rethink about your life. david: let's go to rolls-royce now. we have an suv which i never thought i would dream of. it is a really high-powered rolls-royce that goes off-road. bands all of these luxury
-- brands have been coming up with suvs. you're not the person that drives it. people didn't know if this was going to be an suv that can go off-road and it can. it and shet drove went over rocks and her beds and she said it can handle it. it's got that same super luxury, the champagne cooler, a desk in the back. it can really handle the hills. is this for england? is this for the united states? >> there were only be 800 of them made. you can expect to see them in the u k and in the u.s. yeah. alix: fishing for your dinner. they talk a lot about the concept of dining out.
concept locations. this is the quintessential concept restaurant. chris: sometimes there's too much restaurant -- too much concept. you fish for your dinner. it has a long fish tank. bait and youe some go and fish for the fish that you will eat for your supper. alix: i don't know if that would be interesting. he went fishing. what was it like? >> i didn't feel bad. it felt a lot like one of those steakhouses where you go up to the counter and pick your cut. i expected to be a little more gimmicky than it was. it seemed like a nice fishing restaurant with a twist. david: what is debate? bait?t is the
>> it is a little hunk of salmon and it took about 90 seconds, maybe. a lot of them swam by and ignored it. it wasn't too tricky. it was pretty fun. david: i learned how to fish up in northern michigan and you wanted to go out where it is dreary and dark and go down deep. this is like up in a lighted tank and the fish are going to come up and hit the bait? >> if you're used to a traditional wishing experience, this is probably not you. for an interesting not -- night out, there are some kicks. david: thank you to kyle stock. you can find all of these stories and more by running and i pursuits on the berg or by visiting pursuits on
bloomberg.com. taylor riggs is here with the bloomberg business flash. i am going to read it. case letter is taking just tesla -- about $4000 less than the starting price of the sedan that went on sale last year and it will go to hunt to 60 miles between charges. -- goat 206 he miles between charges. merger the $60 billion to ensure aetna and the justice department has given it's ok as long as aetna gets rid of its medicare business. they want evidence the merger will not drive a isis. -- drive up prices. david: the ridesharing startup is helping her works. it will apply its on-demand the project is being
developed in chicago and they haven't got a date to announce when they are going to roll it out. taylor: i don't understand. if i had three days free and i wanted to make some extra money, go to uber and say me up with a job? david: it is called a gig economy. alix: you can be a good driver and bad driver that you can take skill. how many cups can you carry in one hand? i can carry five. david: i don't think i should sign up. romer.ome paul he's the former world bank chief economist. he was the recipient of a nobel prize. great to have you here. let's talk about your body of
work. is, wederstand what it can make decisions that can drive growth. paul: the broader generalization is we can make decisions that we can't fall back into this sense of apathy about any issue we face. if you get -- each of us has a limited amount we can achieve. if we work together through institutions like our government and our markets, it's amazing what humans can do. we can have faster productivity growth, we can have it all. sayingyou are famous for a crisis is a terrible thing to waste. waste the 2008 financial crisis? paul: i think the net effect of
the crisis was negative. it has hurt our political institutions in that it is harder for us to make decisions. we access so much about getting things right, that we lose track of the fact that any choice would be better than a continued paralysis. the crisis has left us with a legacy that is a problem. we can change that if we set our minds to it. david: one of the things we did is flood the world with money from central banks. what we see happening is it is going to the top. it is going to people who own capital already. is there anything -- any way to change how we are investing that money? paul: let's look forward. we will have another financial crisis. we don't know when but we will have it happen again. there is a thing we can do right now to get ready for that which
is to create a bunch of new banks that are legal entities that are shelves -- shells sitting there. -- you put them into these new banks and let them operate, and then you avoid a populist backlash about why did you give billions to the guys who through us out on main street. alix: they are not publicly traded? paul: you start them out with 100% government owned equity. passes, selloff the shares. david: the distribution of wealth, the distribution of income and the effect of the investment is not going to infrastructure. it is not going to education. yet, as you suggest, we're
feeding back on ourselves because the politics makes that impossible. paul: part of my job is to raise possibilities. to try hard to be wrong. what i mean is i need to suggest things that are processed enough, people contest and say, this turns out it is not true. about whatthink hard is behind things like this resistance to invest. think about what it was like during the crisis. if you got caught with no liquidity, you had to selloff a whole bunch of assets and very depressed prices. do you want a lot of liquid assets? there's a whole bunch of other people left to selloff liquid assets. i've got even more liquid assets, i can make a killing. so that the expectation of another crisis may be part of
why we see so much accumulation of liquid assets and so little investment in the machines, the infrastructure, the things that raise the quality of life. paul:how do you fix that? you try to reduce the estimate of everyone's ability -- it is less that we are going to rely on the private money that makes a killing. use the government institutions to buy assets and provide liquidity. david: macroeconomics. you had a paper called the trouble with macroeconomics. his macro helping us right now? -- all these models, are they working for us? paul: i think we've got room to do better in my profession. we are at a very critical time because this some skepticism
about experts. when i went to the bank it was after the brexit vote which for a lot of people was a vote if the commissar for it, we are against it. we have to clean up our act. we cannot be tolerant of shortcuts and sloppiness. but me tell you how it should be it i was at a seminar about changing the bus network in brooklyn. this was somebody who had a theory about buses. he had data about the different bus lines. it was all completely credible and he never said things like, all theories are false or the theory is as if such and such is true. .t was just like true we need macro which is just true, not like "as if" true. alix: a bullet came out yesterday and said and modernized taylor rule.
paul: i would draw a section between what you do as a central banker and what kinds of insights and form what you do. the till rule is an interesting -- the taylor rule is an interesting theory about what he can do as a central banker -- what you can do as a central banker. we have never come up as a rule that can cover the unexpected circumstances. alix: paul romer, congratulations. it is a real pleasure to speak with you. u.s. markets, are they becoming unexceptional? we are going to talk with mark wilson. this is bloomberg. ♪
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international situation, the third-quarter gdp disappoints -- china's as severe international situation, the third quarter disappoints. and in italy, be where the , andd -- beware the spread industrial indigestion, honeywell delivers on organic growth. david: i'm david westin, alongside alix steel, we a lot going on. for the has been rough s&p, down by 5% in just three weeks, you sawtek get beaten down, the market cannot make up its mind on whether it loves -- you see them getting beaten down, the market cannot make up its mind whether it loves or hates tech. the euro dollar is a little firmer, up by 1/10 of 1%, not seeming to factor in a lot of the drama factoring in in italy
even though you saw a huge amount of outflows in equity funds, and yields are calm in the u.s.. crude is continuing to climb higher but it has been a rough two weeks for crude and interesting commentary will come in terms of the u.s. and saudi relations. i would expected to affect the oil market. david: who would thought that this would happen? it's not the only thing we could interject conflict with. david: let's start with the morning breeze, we will get to existing home sales for the month of sub timbre. at 11:30 theresa may will explain brexit to 150 ceos. and shortly after that, the governor of the bank of england will be here. and we will hear from two federal reserve presidents,
right now, let's get a look at what's making headlines outside of the business world. we turn to taylor riggs the first word news. leader and president trump will meet at the g20 summit in argentina next month, that's according to the hong kong newspaper south china morning post. a white house official has set a meeting between the two is likely. -- has said a meeting between the two is likely. theresa may is gambling on a go slow approach for brexit. are trying to get the country inside the block longer after it formally lives. this would give time to resolve avoidingst obstacle, customs checks at the island and u.k.. and economic growth slowed more than expected in the third quarter, gdp rose six and a half percent from the year ago. knowledge tot dug
the severe international situation and chinese as stocks rose, and the government is trying to prevent the biggest selloff from 2015 from affecting the economy. global news, 24 hours a day on air and on tictoc on twitter, powered by more than 2700 journalists in more than 120 countries. >i'm taylor riggs, this is bloomberg. david: more on china slowing growth, we welcome michael mckee , also with us is mike wilson. a let's talk about china, we will put up some numbers, we expected some slowdown. >> it's a little worse than what was expected, but within the range. china has been slowing for sometime, at least in the chinese take steps to get ahead of that. they were trying to keep lending going, but what's not clear is happening duee is
to trade tariffs. because we saw trade contribute positively to growth, a lot think that's because people were trying to get stuff out the door before sanctions took effect and we will see a back slide. david: tell me about disposable income, it went up and consumption spending went down, so savings went up, is that telling us about the state of the consumer? bitt may tell us a little about the consumer, the data from china is not great, but two things. the chinese government is trying to put in place a social safety net system. there isn't a good one so people save more money. as they get more fearful about what's going on, they will be pulling back. the other aspect is what's happening with the equity markets. people might be saving more because they are getting concerned about the value of the assets they hold. not as widespread as the
united states, but there are people who are concerned. alix: and to pivot the distortion off the data, because you will see trade happening before the tariffs take place, we had an exclusive interview. many importers and retailers in the u.s. are buying stock ahead of possible tariff hikes. there is another side of the coin sometime next year. exports from the u.s. to china have already fallen quite a lot. we are seeing some impacts in the market. overall, at the global level, impact is not really significant at this point in china. in a not do you factor yet but sometime in the future we will, in an earning situation? >> i think the tariffs have been about china and international
markets taking the brunt of the pain. but we think that will trickle to the united states. the margins, on but the bottom line is that tariffs are a part of that. and china slowing is also a part of that. not that we are optimistic about where expectations are. they are too high. if expectations came down we would feel better about the markets but they are too high. alix: when you look at the conversation with the u.s. exceptionalism, outperforming the rest of the world, you expect the gap to close? >> that has been our call for the last couple of months. whenever this happens in this extreme, it never holds. , we hear people talking about it, and there's usually re-coupling quickly. were reallyiers gross stocks and small caps. those were the real outliers in the u.s. equity market.
most of the equity market has re-rated lower and now the growth stops in small are taking their turn. it's maybe three quarters of the way done and we done a lot of damage already. david: how much of this is anticipation of slowdown in the united states? economists think this will trail off in 2019, if that turns out not to be the case how much of this will reverse? in the markets already, that growth will slow and no one has predicted more than two and a half percent of growth, but the issue is how bad could it get? gave me aecause alix hard time last time i brought along a chart. this is 2015, do you remember when the chinese devalued their currency in 2015 and we saw this market plunge. we saw this white line with the index withhe global
the yellow. everyone is concerned about if this become systemic is china slows, and the chinese try to react to this, does it have a contagion effect that will hit the rest of the world that will cause the fed to reassess what they are doing? it's an interesting question to that might be the psychological aspect of what they are asking. saw the stock market in china come back, they lost a lot of money this year. chinese officials intervened in the market and said buy stocks, these are good deal. well, has not work so this gotten better? >> know, it looks like what they did today is that they actually did send a signal by buying some shares, they have something called team china that people
refer to as when the chinese come into the markets to prop up the market there's a feeling that the team is on the field for a bit. over the long-term, that does not work. it didn't work in 2016. there's a fear that if they are doing this now, and we know it doesn't work well, what lies ahead he? alix: sport references and a chart. you will both be sticking with us and coming up earning seasons are underway reporting strong numbers, but it's the margin story that we are watching. this is bloomberg. ♪
have your business flash, procter & gamble posted unexpectedly strong growth in a key metric last quarter. organic sales rose 4%, twice analyst asked -- expectations. also betters were than expected, helped by billions in cost cuts. ,hares and honeywell are higher trading beat estimates. lead from theng a private jet rebound and the energy business is helped by higher oil prices. and shares of michelin are down, the french tire maker has been working with a declining volume in europe because emissions testing standards are hurting car sales. that's your bloomberg business flash. alix: thank you. we are 10% of the way through earning season, the markets is greeting this with little enthusiasm. investors are wondering if we
have reached the peak. earnings growth and revenue are set to slow, they are strong but slower than what we saw in the second quarter. >> i don't know for at a peak, to we might be getting close begin operating margins. if you take out the tax cuts you do have some good growth. >> despite this being a peak year with 10% growth next year that would be great. the question comes in, will trade and tariff impact margins downward? will the rising fed rates impact the broader economy and slow earnings growth. there are questions mark -- there are questions. when you look into the second round effects of the -- retaliation and what china does with bureaucracy, and making it more difficult for companies, and that will impact earnings. masked a stimulus has lot of the pressures that are starting to build a corporate margins.
toonvestors have been complacent about the impact on profitability. this is the quarter it will show up. alix: still with us is mike wilson, you had a great note out at the beginning of the weekend i want to bring in a chart from bloomberg intelligence. the s&p is the blue and operating margins are the white line. talk me through this. have not seen margins rollover that, we've had two years in a row of expanding margins but we had a global recession and 15. when -- in 2015. effectsthe first-order of tax are unequivocably positive. and the second order effects are actually negative. you're stimulating an economy that's already overheated leading to higher wage costs, fuel costs, the capacity is not there. those are now feeding into businesses. it will be difficult for
companies to pass it on. some will. but the street is already modeling another increase in margins next year, and we are skeptical about that. david: how much of it is wages? if you look at that chart and you say we have a recession and how muchroductivity, of this is wages? >> a lot of it. we have an issue with the data, not that we think there's manipulation but wage data and the realt data lags economy. and morgan stanley we deal with a lot of different clients and our private equity clientele has been telling us that wages are not running at 3% they are running at 5% to 10%. we think that's why small caps are underperforming. they don't have the ability to scale and pass the cost on. doesn't matter what causes the margin pressure? are labor costs easier to pass on than say commodity costs or
transportation costs? if you have pricing power you have pricing power no matter what, if it's a labor costs are a commodity cost. but we are dubious on consumer oriented business models, certainly discretionary retail. that space is really taking it on the chin in the last month. along with tech stocks. people assume they can continue to the groll -- to grow. talk aboutou don't overall margins but you talk about it now. materials,, transportation, autos, components and consumer discretionary are at the top of your list. have corrected. to 40% in the 30% areas where most concerned about her where the stocks are not discounting this kind of margin
pressure and consumer is sticking out. avid: if wages are substantial factor, why did you make it up on the other side? people will have more money to buy more stuff. >> that's the common wisdom, i want to go back to consumer discretionary. they've done really well because of tax cuts boosting their income wages, they are spending more money. is that sustainable next year as we go into a deceleration on growth in general? we don't have another tax cut to boost them up and this is there a late in the cycle. when you look at this going for our, rates in the u.s. are rising and you have inflation from the tariffs, are those factors break into your model? >> we like to look at where is the consensus model, i like to think the market cares about mike wilson. but it really cares about the
consensus view. that's how it trades. we look at the consensus and we are confident the consensus is not modeling that based on the margin expansion. come to someone could you and say but look we are cheap, i get what you're saying, but why not by? --buy? >> we did not expect rates despite the way they did, so let's talk about that because it's important. 10 year treasury yields took off in october, and people said growth and inflation are better. but inflation has disappointed as a headline number, and growth i think is decelerating. so why are rates going up? because there's a technical imbalance between supply and demand because the fed is increasing qt, buyback programs are in the blackout. , so there's a liquidity shift, blackoutere is a
buyback for stocks, so there's a liquidity shift. so no one denies that operating margins are important, but is that the only factor in the price of the stock? so why is that the thing we should be paying attention to? --era,he qe in europe, margins of not been the main driver of stock, in fact the correlation was negative till 2014. but then profitability became a today, margins are the highest correlated factor to stock prices to many of the things on the fundamental side. the market cares a lot. mike wilson will be staying with us, coming up, honeywell's third-quarter sales beat estimates.
david: time for the bottom line, where we look at three companies to watch. procter & gamble came out with earnings, and they had a boost in organic growth, they were hoping for 2% and got 4%. its health care and beauty products. they are up over 5%. beauty products, you cannot replicate that. the biggestng at oil services company in the world, it was lower than expected with third-quarter revenue, they see improvement in terms of conditions outside of the u.s., but it's not impacting their result. it looks like the u.s. -- it looks like the u.s. would say these guys, but now international recovery will help. david: all going to the north
sea. alix: and offshore mexico and brazil. david: time for our third story, honeywell, and industrials in general, for that we will bring in brooke sutherland and mike wilson is still with us. this is a big day for honeywell, a usually save -- shares and earnings day with ge. so they are full on in the spotlight and they did not disappoint, they have a huge organic sales number, 7% for the if you remember the dan loves position, it's now looking like a good idea they kept that. seems to likeeet what they sold off, thinking they did a good job. >> they spun off the garrett , and chargers business their consumer base home technology at the end of the
month. a that will cause a meaningful amount of earnings of solutions this year and next year. so the question is, what do they do to make up for that? there's a lot of pressure to do m&a. i'm actually leaning against a big deal for honeywell, we've seen a lot of power in these niche software focus deals that bring in a lot of growth for honeywell. if they continue to do that that may be a better strategy. alix: do you need to distinguish within sectors of the ones that can offer safety? so even though you're in a category -- that's our positions positioned, distributors at the front end are the most vulnerable to cyclical downturns, the best analogy is semi conductors versus hardware and software, semiconductors have done terribly because they figured out there will be a deceleration.
honeywell and some of the bigger have theate companies leader model in their cycles. alix: and so many of these are longer cycles, they have some short cycle exposure but the bullishness is the long cycle businesses. i think this is why you are seeing that the virgin's. thatat the virgin's -- divergence. david: and you don't think that this is a big deal? >> i don't think it's a big deal for honeywell. is not convinced that this going to be the neil mover that technology -- the needle mover that no knowledge -- that technology thinks it does. what honeywell has said it's about the technology, whoever has the best product out there that ultimately wins the race ended there is some logic to
that. david: they also do a good job of managing cost and personnel. >> and expectation. they set the bar low and jump over the bar and their something to be said for that, especially when you think about ge. alix: thank you very much. coming up, sentinel energy is asing pipeline servicers they strike a deal. we have an interview with the ceos of both companies. this is bloomberg. ♪
weeks. but today we are seeing a rally. the italian banks are not happy, shares are off over 1%, a part of it is the ongoing issue when it comes to italy, the e.u., and the budget deficit. bad as we saw yesterday, but the euro dollar is ignoring that to some percent . yields in the u.s. are slightly higher. and brent is up, but it was a rough two weeks for the oil market and a rough couple of weeks for the energy sector. you can see the underperformance of energy stocks, the yellow line is the oil price and the white line is energy stocks. it's a continued conversation about why energy equities cannot perform well. we have mike wilson with us, why is that happening? after the collapse of 2015, oil came down hard. , butof that was oversupply
there was a growing belief that electric vehicles were going to be the rage and that oil is the next would --wood. peoples persisted, believe the demand for oil will go down precipitously sooner rather than later. oil prices are oil prices, what's the longest duration play? oil stocks. on theare bearish long-term price of oil and that's where the gap comes from. alix: how does that filter into margins for other companies? if you have a higher oil price and a longer-term lower oil price what does that model? >> oil prices are not a big deal for 90% of the companies because we are mostly service or it got -- service oriented and we don't do a lot of manufacturing. but this will come back to the consumer. we are getting there. national gas prices are over three dollars now.
as you move towards four dollars that could be a constraint. uss fundamental technological change such as moving to electric vehicles? i come from the publishing dayness, i remember the when we said digital's were coming for newspapers and when it came it came like that. i'm waiting for the day when the tv is turned off and we are only online. sayingwe have people that this is going to be a big deal. >> we are probably more on the later stage of most forecasts, we think 2025 and 2030 it will meet 10% to 15% of demand, oil and gas are not going away and a lot of the growth is coming from emerging markets where electric vehicles are expensive relative to combustion engine vehicles. that's part of the equation also. our view is going to be a longer
tail than most people believe. with us a few minutes, sticking with oil we , thesome news special-purpose acquisition company, the shell company ipo used money foreign acquisition and this is how it played out. sentinel energy services is purchasing strike. at $850ce coming in million. this is the first deal of its -- kind to target midstream infrastructure services segments and it has some big names behind shivram.rishna , here isreak it down christian chevron and steve pate -- krishna shivram and steve pate. with your extensive history in howoil services business,
hard or easy was it to find an opportunity act go -- opportunity? >> it was quite a journey, we ago, webout a year looked at 75 targets in total, and it was down to 10 address of targets, and three actionable ones. strike came out in front. we were pleased with this deal. we have engaged with strike since february, and it has been 10 months that we have engaged to them. it's brought to fruition at this point, and we got it to the announcement state. excited about an emerging services play, there is not -- no large midstream
services company in the public domain and this was a real gem that we were looking for. it had all the characteristics that andrew and i were searching in this large array of opportunities that we looked at. alix: let's talk about the business, you cannot only build a pipeline but you can offer the services, can you talk out about what kind of businesses that is and what opportunity you see to grow? it's about 60% maintenance and integrity and 40% bigger projects. the maintenance and integrity is the original foundation of the business and continues to be the core business and our main focus. do build new pipelines and facilities, but our main focus will always be on the aging and refurbishing and maintaining our customers customers'sets --
existing assets. the integrity and maintenance but wes higher margins, are averaging in the mid to low teens. alix: going forward, what are you noticing in terms of labor shortages? tariffs? actual construction shortages? can you walk us through those issues? >> it's a good and bad. we are certainly seeing a lot of , and theg with labor pay scales have gone up. but the customers are working with us and helping us to maintain that. the tariffs don't really affect , because our business is so focused on the maintenance and integrity sided does not much matter what the price of oil and gas are, our customers will continue to fund the product.
the defensive nature of this business is what really attracted us to it. the by plan infrastructure in the united states is over 15 years old and it continues to age. the regulatory framework becomes more onerous on operators. so there is a tailwind and the continuous growth in the maintenance and service part of the business, which is the sticky part. it has a 90% renewal rate in terms of contracts. to of these factors led us work closely with strike. with ourd that background, andrew and i were looking for the right dna that belongs to a service company. ,e look for a management team the values of safety, excellent service, and talent
identification. in the orientation toward safety and looking out for customers needs. we found those with strike. we are excited to put that together, and maybe gross strike over time into something like the midstream services industry. alix: that would require some buildup and be very impressive. in the research that you did when you have the 70 to 80 takeover candidates, what areas do you like that have value? what do you need to avoid? is that the really market size continues to grow on the maintenance and integrity side because of increasing regulations that are only getting more onerous. the pipeline and infrastructure continues to age, and as someone mentioned on a previous segment,
the takeaway constraints continue to come pound as the the big -- to compound as u.s. becomes a large exporter. so the buildup on the infrastructure side is not a buildup for the u.s. industry, it's for the entire global demand for oil and gas. there are a lot of legs to the industry, and we are in the right space. so let's talk about you being the schlumberger of the midstream. how quickly can you grow? up until now, our growth has , now taking the public path, having access to public money, that will make a big difference. years we've had
35% annual compound and annual growth periods of being able to , witht that pace financial constraints on our capital availability shows that we are able to do that. on the maintenance integrity we are low at maybe 5% or 6% overall, there's tremendous , and we will grow by expanding our geographical footprint. and at the same time expanding that geographical footprint will most likely include some regional businesses. we will also be focused on adding new service lines that are complementary to our business. your it's good to get
perspective, krishna i cannot go without asking about the oil services business, we see a modest recovery with u.s. domestic rolling over a little bit. when will they get the pricing power back? what do you notice? question for the upstream service industry. there's capacity in that market, there's a lot of commoditization , that's why when we look at a target for the strike we stayed array -- we stayed away. on the production side, there's a lot of activity, and when you look at production a new look at upstream production there's a lot of opportunity there for people to impact the production of their operators, and the pricing power in the production arena. we look at the midstream production side which is why we are here, the midstream has a
lot more legs and pricing power coming up. alix: thank you very much. we appreciate your time. we just talked about a new type of m&a, what is your outlook right now? >> we are busy, where all one of the leaders here and we were more busy in europe than in the u.s. earlier in the year, that has probably slowed down. people are questioning what's going on with italy and other things happening in europe. i suspect the fourth quarter will be fine, that will change quickly if the view on margins plays out. david: thank you so much for being with us today. coming up, earning stock in your favorite stores every time you shop. we will speak with the founder and ceo of bumped. that's next, this is bloomberg. ♪
coming up later, prime minister of denmark. i'm taylor riggs. let's get your bloomberg business flash. tesla is now taking orders for a cheaper short range version of the model three electric car. it will cost 45,000 dollars, 4000 dollars less than the starting price of the sedan that went on sale last year. it will go 260 miles between charges. the 35,000 sign of
dollar model three tesla promise. an encouraging sign for menlo -- for then mow that it -- venmo has yet to make a profit, paypal also boosted its fourth-quarter revenue outlook. apple has a new top bowl on wall at -- a market value of one and a half trillion dollars, apple will probably beat estimates of 220 million iphone shipments, the average selling price is expected to be higher as well. that's your business flash. retail customer loyalty programs have been around forever, whether it's discounts, points, or free merchandise. neww company is employing a way to build loyalty, through stock ownership. the company is bumped, to explain us -- to explain it to
us is the ceo and founder, david nelsen. >> coming out of the gates what linking debits cards and credit cards in their wallet to the app. once they do that they choose the brands they want to be loyal to, the brands they love. david: what are we talking about? the home improvement category you have home depot and lowe's, there's also the coffee category, there's really just an opportunity or consumers to choose the brand they want to shop at, and when they shop with the link debit cards and credit cards they start earning fractional shares of stocks. so i have to pick between home depot and lowe's, and that's one have to go to. >> i is paramount when people choose to shop with a brand that's a vote of confidence for the future success of that brand. wherever his shop
closest, we don't think about the impact of -- we shop wherever is closest, we don't think about the impact. so this lets us have ownership interest in the company we shop at so they can think harder about where they choose to spend their dollar. david: so i go to target and i buy something for $20 but that's not enough to buy a share of stock? so what do i get? >> part of the underlying broker-deal is that we put the money behind this so we fractional eyes everything. -- fractionalize everything. we buy shares in aggregate and we fractionalize those shares. share.might own .2 of a and if you choose to sell it you can sell it. david: do i have to hold it for some period of time? at any time, but
we found only 1% of people do. and that's one of the interesting findings of this. people take a lot of pride in walking into a target or a home depot and feeling like it is their store. david: who pays for it? are at an interesting time where they are racing to the bottom of price and they are looking for ways to build relationships with the consumer. you have a chance for brands to , and the brand is ultimately the one paying for that. can give discounts, cashback back, gift cards, i can do all of these things to create an affinity for my brand but none of them work and so many set a precedent a lower price, which is brand tarnishing. david: so this is a way of not competing on prices. so i'm not racing to the bottom. >> that's right, you want your
customer to shop with you foruse they love the brand, reasons other than price. you don't want them walking into your store expecting the same discount they got the last time they walked into your store if they come back. david: can you tell us about your results? at scale,ched this anyone who wants to be a part of this can go to our website and get on the wait list. right now, we are ultimately working with a couple thousand people who we are putting in each week and we are measuring the results. one of the major results we found is that people are getting about $.58 on average in stock reward, $10 a month with the changesbrand, and that over time as we add more brands and get it going. companyes that mean a like home depot will not offer as much discounting because they have this instead? you look at online versus
off-line advertising there's a big shift. i think brands will look at the data and how this impacts my consumer, then it's a repurpose thing of funds. do i discount my brand? give cash back at how to identify with my consumer and ultimately reward and build affinity for my brand? david: he said you are adding 2000 and eight, -- 2000 a week? it's a scale to anticipate, as become a pilot, once we know we can scale this, we will unleash the hounds and let the brands and start talking about it and pushing it out to the consumer. some of this is the equation of letting the brand tell their customers they are willing to make them a part of their overall story. and i'm excited for that point where we let it roll and go to everyone. david: come back and report on it when you have some or people
alix: i am watching cars, that's off the 4% in the third-quarter earnings will come in significantly below estimates. they are just in the outlook for cars as well as buses, no real answers to the why behind that, but after michelin announced yesterday the declining sales in europe and china, this does not feel like a big surprise. are increasing rumblings about overall car sales in europe, and the china issue with tariffs is looming. we have land rover actually shutting down plants, and there
is pressure from china. but in europe there is a lot of reports. it's also trucks and buses as well. alix: the u.s. is obviously a has anothert, volvo leg up in north american truck demand helping to offset the market in europe. however are as sales have peaked in the u.s. as well, and not keeping pace with the same gdp data we saw. david: the question is if it will hold off her come down. -- hold off or come down. if you have autos in the year at -- in the u.s., and they're plateauing, and china's rolling over as well it gets very negative. david: there are reports that perhaps president trump will meet with president xi at the end of the month. while they are cutting
their forecasting significantly lower at daimler. much more coming up on that as well. this will not help the market, but you do have some kind of relief rally underway at the u.s. sector. we saw on unwitting technology, we will break it up -- it will be broken down in bloomberg markets: the open. being up, daniel niles will are we seeing some stabilization in the market after a three-week decline? this is bloomberg. ♪
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coming down -- coming up, staring down a unstable equity market. china cutting investments to remain calm, the economy continuing to decelerate and they de-escalating for fourth straight week. we are 30 minutes away from the opening bell. this -- the stock market is flat on the week but we are positive on his friday. this friday.ve on yields are of a basis point to 319 on the u.s. 10 year, the biggest story is that investors are on it. >> the market is vulnerable. >> it's hard to be too optimistic at this point. >> investors got to complacent. they thought nothing could go wrong. >>