tv Whatd You Miss Bloomberg October 11, 2019 4:00pm-5:01pm EDT
that indicate vulnerability to us and that vulnerability and uncertainty as part of decisions -- capex decisions. caroline: the closing bell. not as high as we have been. but still stellar. joe: very substantial gains all around. at some point about half an hour ago, we were up on the day. it did seem, as sarah ponczek just put it, we sold the news a little bit. overall, pretty good vibe. romain: we should point out, too, we started the week off on a pretty dour note. we are finishing the week up about .6% on the s&p 500 and we are back above a lot of those key technical levels people were concerned about. remember, we were hugging that 100-day moving average just two days ago. caroline: we have clawed our way
back. notable we are hearing from president trump that a phase i deal could be signed in chile in november, so you'll have to wait i'sile until we get the dotted and t's crossed. >> let's check in on a chart we have been looking at quite a bit over the last few weeks. this is the second half of 2019. the third quarter on july relatively flat. gold in yellow, treasury futures in white, so actual bonds, and the nasdaq and s&p 500 in blue and orange. then the fed meeting, we see a bit of my divergence, gold and treasuries going sharply higher -- we see a bit of a divergence. in august, trade headlines really bringing investors out of risk assets into havens. a little bit of a stalemate in september. what i would like to point out, october started off on a down note for stocks, but now on the possibility of this trade deal,
waiting for the details, we see that stocks are basically even now over this time period, and havens coming down. gold having its worst week since february, treasuries it's worse than about a month. week on this trade deal that we will know more about soon. taylor: i'm sticking with that theme and looking to continue the outperformance of the stocks in the s&p 500. tech has been a bellwether gauge of how it is performing. as you can see, that has been the theme all year long. you are still getting stocks returning about 30% so far this year relative to the s&p 500. only about 10% gain or so in the last year. it has been the big outperform her since that december bottom, and that story does continue today.
i want to take a look at a chart i'm showing inside my terminal here. we talked a lot about this, hittingu have stocks that key 1600 level. it had not proved to be pretty strong, but you did have stocks holding against this 50-day moving average. today, of course, we are closing back up around that 1600 level, so my eyes will be on if that 1600 level can hold, and that new resistance line perhaps becomes the next support line going forward. >> thanks. i'm looking at commodities, one of them has been most susceptible to trade talks. soybean futures has hit a three-month high on news that the u.s. and china had reached a partial trade agreement. china would agree to some agriculture concessions. gains also come after the u.s. department of agriculture on thursday made its second biggest monthly reduction in the history
of its world agricultural supply and demand estimates report. this means u.s. soybean inventory may fall by half from the prior season when reserves soared as china avoided american supply. snow could potentially curb supplies or reduce the quality of soy crops and corn and granola, also spring wheat crops as well. joe: thank you. jason brady, bloomberg investment management, and sarah ponczek. mnuchin says they will decide later on lifting the china currency manipulator designation. there is a lot that is still uncertain out there. of the aside the details
trade discussion for now, and i don't think anything is going to be totally buttoned up for a , and maybe even that is optimistic, what is your view on the economy? do you see evidence that from a global perspective, at least, maybe things are trough and -- troughing, that maybe we are behind the worst? >> i'm not sure things are troughing. pmi affected a lot by this trade tension. those tend to be leading, and they continue to climb in the u.s. what i'm watching is as we look at the fed and central banks generally who have pulled forward a lot of demand by keeping rates lower the last decade or so, are they going to move to the idea that this is no longer an insurance or small midcycle correction? are we really going into kind of preventing recession? to me, that is pretty critical.
if you see that three-month or 10-year continue to change, to is ifer, what to look at it is in the context of rates going higher, which means the fed is going to be a little bit lagging, things are fine, or is it in the context of yields going lower, which is to say the fed is really going to start cutting aggressively, maybe we are going back down to zero. that's what i'm keeping an eye on. note, there was a lot of expectation for the fed to continue cutting rates. that was not tied to the trade war. a lot of it was tied to the idea there are a lot of other geopolitical issues out there from what is going on in the middle east. those issues have not quite been resolved yet. those externalat factors are going to be enough to keep the fed on the path market wants it to be on? jason: it's a great question. marketr what path the longer term really wants the fed to be on. we can say the fed should lower
rates, but at this point, you are seeing enough tension in the fed that they are only going to really lower rates if they see real recession or a real chance of recession. that will not be good for stocks. traditionally, when you see the fed cutting more than two or three times, that is in the context of stocks falling and falling significantly. for me, as i look at it, those tensions are real outside of trade. actual just general manufacturing slowdown and lots of leverage in corporations and governments. if that is not enough to get things going, i'm not sure the fed cutting rates will help much. if they continue to do so, it will be in the context of a bad economic environment, so keep your eye on that for sure. caroline: today we have had rate cut expectations in the market dialed back significantly. are people going to be caught on the wrong side, particularly the bond move, because we are seeing significant day after day yields
spiking higher? >> it's a great question. i thought it was pretty telling with what we have seen in the move as it relates to fed funds and rate cut expectations going forward for the october meeting. he asked if this is a goldilocks trade deal, do you have a partial agreement of this sort? is it good enough to keep markets happy and investors happy enough, but bad enough to keep uncertainty at the forefront, especially with those december tariffs. we need more details about how huawei was not included in this agreement, as we know, so are we in the sweet spot where the fed still feels as though they need to cut rates, but you also have the market inching higher as well because we do have some sort of trade truce? joe: meanwhile, trump taking this moment to reiterate his view that the fed should cut interest rates. not surprising because he has said that several times in the past, but nothing has changed.
jason, what is your view on that? if you look at the economic data, we got a cpi report earlier this week that was a little bit on the mild side, as you put it, no real evidence that we are troughing yet -- is there still a case that the fed should be more proactive in cutting rates? fed has not, the been aggressive enough when times were good, and now they are being actually fairly aggressive when it is a little bit shaky. let's remember that although markets move based on rate of actuallyhe fed is pretty low as far as where the neutral rate is. if you look at the fiscal stimulus that has gone into the economy in the context of extremely high budget deficits and a time of pretty good economic growth, i would argue the neutral rate is notably higher than 1%. if you're talking core cpi, yes, i understand a little bit below
expectations, but in the mid-2 's, i think the fed is pretty accommodative. i'm not sure if the fed needs to cut more to stay ahead. they will just continue to cause more imbalances. romaine: we are seeing a lot of action in the dollar and in the offshore yuan, actually kind of reversing what we saw earlier. i guess that's because we got some of these headlines. when you look at the direction of the dollar, what are you hearing from traders with regards to what they want to see out of this deal and how that will affect the dollar? sarah: i thought ubs had an interesting take, not so much on the dollar but on the yuan, saying they believe china will not make a deal strong enough to strengthen the yuan, which means we will continue to see a strong dollar, so you have to take that into account when you are assessing what comes out of these deals because a strong dollar or stronger yuan in turn can be part of that. caroline: we want to thank you for your insights and bringing
joe: the question is -- "what'd you miss?" caroline: u.s. stocks closed near record highs as china and the u.s. unveiled a partial trade deal and reduced tariff risks for next week. havens get hammered. inverts. yield curve un- a sterling day for sterling. the u.k. and eu may be inching closer to a deal. romaine: all right, well, we have a deal, phase one. the u.s. and china have announced an agreement on the outline of a trade accord. president trump says he and xi jinping could sign it as soon as next month in chile. from loss right now angeles, a lot of moving parts to this. a lot we do not know. i guess we do know there will be a lot of agriculture purchases. it appears one of the headlines is 40 billion to $50 billion,
appears to be the commitment. if that is the case, how significant is that for american farmers? >> absolutely. that's one of the concessions we have been talking about throughout this trade war and it looks like they have come up with a specific number. trump says that compares with about $8 million in purchases from china. normally it might be $16 billion in the absence of a trade war, so that is a big jump. that will help farmers, that will help trump's political base, so you can bet trump administration will be championing that as a topline issue, but as you mentioned, we are just getting dribs and drabs of what this trade deal is about right now. as trump said today, it is not on paper yet. there's a lot of details that still need to be ironed out. joe: obviously, something like agricultural purchases is fairly easy to quantify. there's a number. you can see if they are being bought and so forth. some of the other things they are talking about agreeing to or wanting to pursue are a little
more nebulous including changes to the ip relationship. what do we know about what has been agreed to? we know this is the area that gets much more to the deep sticking points. >> absolutely and that is the sticky waters -- that is the tricky waters we are into right now. we are forced to rely on the few things they have told us, which are china is going to open up its financial markets. we are going to see some reforms on ip issues, but it begs the question -- exactly how. these have been the toughest issues for china to agree upon and i think the trump administration itself has been very critical of previous administrations forgetting what they see our promises from china on these specific issues and then not moving forward, and enforcement is the big word of the day for this deal, and they have not agreed according to lighthizer, the u.s. trade representative, 100% on an enforcement mechanism. that is a real big key right now. how will they make sure these
commitment are followed through -- commitments are followed through apple caroline: we thank you. let's get even more analysis on the partial trade deal. your thoughts on the limited nature and the non-signed nature of this deal? this is not real, really a deal yet. it is an agreement on the scope of a deal which is yet to be worked out. even if the deal does work out, as news reports are playing out, what this will amount to is not really a de-escalation of tensions, just a non-escalation. what that means is that the existing tariffs, existing sanctions are not really going to be rolled back based on what we've heard so far, but the new sanctions that have been threatened by the trump administration will not come into effect. if one thing's about the broader thees that underlie
economic and trade issues between the two countries, there does not seem to be much progress. if you think about the implications for businesses that want to reduce uncertainty, i don't think they have made much progress at all. joe: i want to home and on the last point about the uncertainty this may have on business investment. .ven if there is a deal can we ever go back to the old normal, or will this cast a long-term paul -- long-term pall on business investment? and maybe it is not the u.s.-china relationship, but any relationship that exists today could change at the turn of a tweet. >> the policies of the trump administration have created a lot of uncertainty, not just in the trade relationship with
china, but with many of the long-standing trade partners and allies of the u.s. one of the reasons the chinese changing the structure of the economy where is less dependent on the state owned enterprise and so it is precisely because they are concerned that given the mercurial nature of mr. trump, even if they did make very significant concessions, the deal could get blown up on a presidential win. theing partners around world are concerned, but that will affect how business partners perceive the world because even if there is a miniature deal or even a slightly broader deal with china, that could unravel quickly. romaine: how is the u.s. viewed around the world in this middle of this trade front? we saw quite a few deals being struck among asian nations, among latin american nations, and the u.s. was not part of
those discussions or even a thought in any process. i'm just wondering, should things improve, relationships between china and the u.s., that mean the u.s. re-engages with these other nations, or are we just kind of in this new world order where the u.s. is just kind of on its own? less reliable and much less trustworthy partner when it comes to trade deals. in fact, in terms of broader economic relationships. maybe countries for whom trade is very important are taking a much more defensive posture, trying to see if they can get away from the uncertainty created by the u.s., and the way they do that is essentially by
signing bilateral deals with each other, by creating other multilateral trade agreements. the more important issue is what happens if the u.s. does in fact follow through -- caroline: i'm afraid we're going intervene. president trump has been in a meeting with china's vice premier. let's listen in. >> we have great respect for them and great friendship with him, and we have come to a very deal, andl phase one i will go through some of the points, and i will ask the vice premier to say a few words, and any comment that he may have. we have come to a deal, pretty much subject to getting it written. it will take probably three weeks, four weeks, or five weeks. as you know, we are going to be in chile together, the big summit, and maybe it will be then or maybe it will be some but we havethen, come to a deal on intellectual properties, financial services,
a tremendous deal for the farmers, a purchase from $40 billion to $50 billion' worth of agricultural products. to show you how big that is, that would be to an a half, three times what china had purchased at its highest point thus far, so they were purchasing $16 billion or $17 billion at their highest point and that will be brought up, so i would suggest farmers have to go and immediately buy more land and get bigger tractors. they will be available at john deere and a lot of other great distributors. thewe are taking in purchase of agricultural products from $40 billion to $50 .illion what they have been doing now i believe is about $8 billion, right? the other thing i will say is over the last two weeks, and a
lot of purchases have started going back to our farmers, and you have been doing a lot of business with us, which we appreciate very much, but it really started a few weeks ago. the $8 billion was lower than $8 billion. he got up to $8 billion because they've been purchasing quite a bit over the last couple of weeks. also have the agricultural structural issues. we have some incredible progress on the structure and structural issues, and bob, perhaps you could discuss that, please, on agriculture and explain the importance of these structural issues that we have solved. probably at least as important as the purchases is the fact we have corrected a sanitary files,
sanitary issues we have corrected. biotechnology issues. it will be much easier now for to be able tors ship to china and we have made some corrections on our side, to o. >> and that has been completed and pretty much done. >> that is correct. toanother issue we have come conclusion on his currency, foreign exchange. >> we have had very good andussions with governor yi the people's bank with china, their central bank. we have also had extensional discussions on financial services opening their markets to our financial firm, so we have a most complete agreement on those issues. as we know, currency has been a big concern of yours since the campaign. we have an agreement around
transparency into the foreign exchange markets and free markets, so we are very pleased with that. good have also made very progress on technology transfer, and we will put some of technology transfer in phase one. phase two will start negotiations almost immediately after we have concluded phase one and papered it, and i think phase one should happen pretty quickly. you have intellectual property. we have an agreement on intellectual property. financial services, the banks, and all of the financial services companies will be very, very happy with what we have been able to get, and i think china is going to be very happy because they will be served very well by these great institutions being able to go into china, and it's going to be a tremendous thing for banks and for .inancial service companies agricultural structural issues,
tremendous for the farmers. as steve said, that's all most as good as -- which i disagree with him on that -- but it's all most as good as going from $8 billion and then to $16 billion, which was their all-time high, to $40 billion or $50 billion. we are going to be up to $40 billion to $50 billion of agricultural purchases, which means farmers will have to work a lot of overtime to produce that much. that's the largest order in the history of agriculture by far, by two and a half times. technology transfer, we will have some technology transfer in but technology transfer will largely be done and also in phase two, so we are going to start negotiating phase two after phase one is completed and signed, and then there may be a phase three, or we may get it done in phase two. you will either have two or three phases. we are very happy with it.
we have great respect for china, great respect for president xi. want to tell you i watch the 70th anniversary in great detail and it was an incredible event. congratulations on the 70th, everyone. that was really something. really amazing to watch. the vice premier, i want to thank you very much for being here with your team. you are very tough negotiators. congratulations, but it is something we both realized right from the beginning is very important, not a look forhi, not only for the u.s., but to the world. every time there is a little bad news, the market would go incredibly. every time there was a little bit of good news, the market would go up incredibly. and yet, other news that was also very big, the market just did not really care. they just seemed to care about ,he deal with the usa and china
and that is ok with me. tremendoushad a negotiation, a very complex negotiation, but something that is going to be great for both countries, and mr. vice premier, would you like to say something? >> [speaking foreign language] translator: firstly, on behalf of the chinese government, we would like to extend our thanks to tribes or fire for your for thelatory message 70th anniversary of the founding of the people's republic of china. >> [speaking foreign language]
translator: we very much agree that to get the china-u.s. economic relationship right is something that is good for china, for the united states, and for the whole world, and we are making a lot of progress towards a positive direction. >> [speaking foreign language] translator: over recent days, i have had good communication with both ambassador lighthizer and secretary mnuchin and, mr. president, as you just mentioned, we have made substantial progress in many fields. we are happy about it. we will continue to make efforts. you for this opportunity for me to speak up,
and all my colleagues are happy about it. president trump: thank you very much. it's a great honor. i think that the currency foreign-exchange agreement that we made will be of tremendous benefit, both in terms of the magnitude ofboth in terms of the of it and the simplicity of what we're able to do. it will make a very complicated process much simpler. that is something we have all been working for. yes? >> [indiscernible] read the letter to you? pres. trump: thank you very much. but i see that? thank you very much. >> [indiscernible]
pres. trump: yes. not good with chinese. will have that magnified so fast, your head will spin. privilege.mendous i appreciate it very much. this is from president xi. have a we were going to very successful phase one and it took us a long time to get here, but it is something that's going to be great for china and great for the usa and we appreciate a much. please congratulate president xi . thank you very much. [indiscernible]
the vice premier has requested on the president has approved of documenting this -- we will not be implementing the increase of tariffs that were scheduled to go into place at 25%? >> [indiscernible] >> that's correct. that's correct. pres. trump: including the other ones. this is a very important phase. agriculture will be completed. we will bring it up to $50 million. to berojection is going the number. i do not know -- there is a question whether our farmers can produce that much. i think they can, but they literally, i said it jokingly, i think i mean it, but they are going to have to buy more land. it will be a good time to own land in iowa, nebraska, and other great states. they are very happy about it.
from $8 billion -- it was $2 billion or $3 billion. they got him pretty low. the highest was $16 billion. they brought it up to $50 billion. to go from $16 billion to 50 billion dollars. anywhere between $40 billion and $50 billion and that will start. it actually already started. you started purchasing a lock from the farmers. we just got messages from the midwest. >> [indiscernible] $20 billion. a tremendous- amount of soybeans and that was over the last couple weeks. we will see the price go up a little bit.
that is right. >> [indiscernible] are working on enforcement right now. is one of the things in this agreement. we haven't enforcement provision and we are working out the final aspects. that is something -- bob, do you want to say something about that? lighthizer: we have an escalation in various areas, so the difficulties can be resolved. both parties have been allocated , assigned areas. people have created a structure underneath it and we are down to the final details of what will happen. thus the final part we are putting together. that wees agree absolutely have to have it.
we are very close to that. >> [indiscernible] what kind of areas can u.s. and china work together? pres. trump: i think they are great. in certain ways, it is better than it has ever been. we have been through a tough negotiations. i give china tremendous credit. for 25, 30 years, they have done very well with the u.s., and now we are doing something jointly. we are doing it in a fair manner. i give china credit for what they've done the last 30 years. i don't blame china. i blame the people representing our country. it will be fantastic for china and fantastic for the united states. >> is this an actual deal? pres. trump: no, it is subject
to getting everything papered. we have agreed in principle to just about everything i mentioned. i do not -- i think china once it badly, so we want it also. we should get that done over the last -- next four weeks. le, and we willhi see and we will do a formal anding, president xi myself. i'm excited. we covered a lot more territory than agriculture. i am excited for the farmers. there has never been a deal of this magnitude for the american farmer. bob? do you want to talk about -- secretary lighthizer: in this , [indiscernible]
if it's not in the agreement that's a separate process. >> [indiscernible] going tomp: we are discuss where is hunter? where is hunter, by the way? we will discuss that when i get out because i will stop at the helicopter. but right now, in respect to china and the vice premier, we are only going to ask questions -- >> [indiscernible] pres. trump: john? can you reassure the american people you did not bring up joe biden in these negotiations? pres. trump: i did not bring up joe biden. china can do whatever they want with respect to the bidens. up to china. we do have to look into corruption, but no, it has not been brought up. weeks --5
pres. trump: anything can happen. i don't think it will. we have been negotiating this for a long time. this will possibility not get papered. i have been doing this for a long time and the vice premier has been doing this for a long time. great professionals, his people, inside my. i think the likelihood is not this falling apart. we have a fundamental understanding on the key issues. there is more work to do. we will not sign an agreement unless we can tell the president this is on paper. i know the vice premier needs to go back and do some work with his team. we made a lot of progress over the last two days.
pres. trump: president xi has been following this closely. >> [indiscernible] can you comment on the progress -- pres. trump: i think -- are you from china? >> yes. pres. trump: i think the people of china have to be very proud of your team. they are unrelenting. i say that in a positive way. they are tough. they are smart. the people of china should be very proud of this team, starting with the vice premier. he's a very extraordinary man. we have gotten to know each other well. everybody on my team respects your team. i think they handled themselves incredibly well. tariffs, the increase from 25% to 30%, that will be suspended.
pain joint 5%, but we will not increase it to 30%. you may want to mention the additional tariffs? half, that is scheduled for december 15 and the president has not made a final decision on that, but there is plenty of time to make that decision and that is certainly part of the process through.se are working to the president. the wavy timing works out, it -- the well in advance way the timing works out, it will be well in advance of that day. >> [indiscernible] pres. trump: students? no, no, no. we are to be very good to chinese students. manye heard this question times before, including from our
own security people. we want all the people who want to come over from china, the greatest university system in the world and we are want to keep it that way, and one of the reasons it is great as we have a lot of students from china. we are not going to make it tough. we will make it like for everybody else. >> mr. president -- pres. trump: we are going to make it. i think is very important. i think it's very important, bob. wants our universities. we of the great assist him in the world. i think is important to say that to the people of china. our system is open. people get and based on merit. we have incredible talent coming from china. they occupy a big space in our universities and we want to keep it that way. on it was false rumors going that we would close the schools
to china. that is so false. it's just fall. -- it's just false. >> [indiscernible] pres. trump: unit of exchange, yes. i think you have been very clear in your directive all along through the trade negotiations -- >> are you going to give your word to the students? pres. trump: yeah. i think of them my word. we want the greatest all in the world coming to our universities wharton schoole, of finance. all the greatest schools. we want them coming here. that's one of the reasons we have this great system. there of been discussions about that -- not by me -- but i want you to know, i and those discussions very quickly. >> [indiscernible] making a decision
on that and evaluating it. it will be a step in the right direction for our evaluation. >> [indiscernible] absolutely, we do. we do a lot of business with chinese companies. do have security companies and certain companies we will have to be careful with and we have to pay very close attention , but we are doing tremendous business with china. it has tailed off. we have purposefully tailed off, but it will start building very quickly again. to a much bigger extent than ever before. [indiscernible] pres. trump: this is phase one and it is a part of it.
the farmers, the intellectual property. the intellectual property, financial services, it will be a massive boon to the bank sent all of these companies including ownership interests. you had to do that made it difficult. china has been opened up for the first time. that is a tremendous thing. and we have complete agreements. intellectual property. there's a lot of agreements. included in will be phase two. i do not know the farmers can handle it. a lot of this has to do with agricultural -- agriculture.
currency exchange, this we have been able to do. not just through simplification, but the importance of it and the technology transfer. so we will have some technology transfer here and some will he in phase two. it may be phase two or phase three. >> [indiscernible] because it is such a big deal and it covers so much territory that doing it in sections and phases is, i think very -- is better. we have agricultural, structural issues and then $50 billion of agriculture. that will be covered in its entirety.
currency, financial services. lendings and the institutions will all be covered. of that will be covered. it works out to be a very neat package and now we can focus on phase two. whatever it is. >> at what point will you raise tariffs again? pres. trump: we will see. only good faith and bad a. we are going to try to get this paper. we think it will take three weeks, four weeks.
i will be there for the big summit. >> [indiscernible] pres. trump: we got to know a lot better. not work out that way. this deal is a bigger deal than the last deal. about $50 billion, we were thinking about 20. to $20 saying 16 billion. this is a much bigger deal. it is a paid chunk of it, but a much bigger deal.
currency, foreign-exchange. a lot of things happened over the last year. i think this is actually -- when you added up, it will be more precise. now we have the currency, the forex change the included. of these warnings change aspect is much more can we then it would have been. and not forget a lot of things happened that we were not talking about a year ago. >> [indiscernible] pres. trump: we are going to find out. that will be up to the vice president -- and
president xi. the united states has been doing very well. think it will beach men does flee positive. we have been leaving the world in many aspects. i think china will do tremendously well. this is a great for china. it's a great deal for us. >> [indiscernible] pres. trump: do you want to secretaryt gekko lighthizer: it will scale. >> [indiscernible] we discussed hong
kong. i think great progress has been made and i have been watching and i told the vice premier, it really has toned down a lot from the initial days of a number of months ago when i saw a lot of people and i see far fewer now. we were discussing it. i think that is going to take care of itself. i think this deal is a great deal for the people of hong kong to see what happened. this is a very positive thing for hong kong. it really has assessed the escalation, it really has the escalated a lot from the beginning -- de-escalated a lot the beginning. we were discussing. will be looking at the blacklist as toking a determination which companies will be on the list. >> [indiscernible] yes, i do.:
i think the federal reserve should cut rates regardless of this deal. we are higher than other nations. germany is loaning money and when asked be paid back him a they get paid, ok? it's ridiculous. i think the federal reserve should cut rates. with a great economy. the china deal is much more important than the interest rates. this has to do with world peaks. this has to do with a lot of friction, a lot of bad things happening in the world. this is far more important than the total reserve and interest rates, but the federal reserve should cut interest rates, absolutely. >> [indiscernible]
think it helps me. yesterday i had the biggest crowd. we broke the stadium record. you understand it, too. my poll numbers are going way up . so, the impeachment, it's a hoax. we did not discuss it, but i would tell them it's a hoax. is a hoax done by people who are losing and they want to use it to win the election and i do not think it will happen in i do not think china believes it is going they wouldbecause rather deal with sleepy joe biden who is bad -- he is not going to win anyway. they may be better off waiting. but they also know when i win, the deal gets even tougher. it gets even tougher and they expect that i'm going to win. otherwise they won't sign the deal. >> [indiscernible] pres. trump: i do like tariffs.
yes. >> [indiscernible] pres. trump: i think we will have a deal that is a great deal, that is beyond tariffs. it's a very important deal for the world. very important deal for the united states. this is beyond tariffs. i really think that world peace -- you know, there was a lot of friction between the united rates in china -- united states and china and now it is a lovefest. that's a good ring. that's a good thing for china. it's good for us. it's good for the world. the vice premier said the same thing. he said it better than anyone else could say it. he said this is a great thing for the world. he did not say china or us. he said this is a great thing for the world. and that's absolutely right. >> [indiscernible] pres. trump: the whole world is watching. >> yes. the whole world is watching. pres. trump: it's amazing.
>> the treaty provides peace and prosperity in developments. i think it's very, very important. pres. trump: peace and prosperity for the whole world. so it is beyond a trade deal. it really is. talk was getting tough, rhetoric was getting tough. we have ships and they have ships and we have planes and they have planes. bad things can happen. stupid things can happen. we have a very good relationship. i have very little doubt we will be able to get this thing out. it's not overly complex. thank you very much. i hear a helicopter. down to louisiana. we have a totally sold out crowd in louisiana.
and the governor of louisiana who is not doing a very good job in louisiana. hopefully he will not get to 50% and you will have a runoff in a nice, new republican governor of louisiana and i hope a lot of you are going to join us. are you joining us, john? did you watch was night? did you enjoy it gekko -- did you enjoy? a lot of people enjoyed it, john. have a good time. the press are leaving now. thank you. thank you. pres. trump: we will talk about that later. >> thank you. the press are leaving now. thank you. all right, you were just listening to president donald trump in the white house talking about the u.s.-china trade deal, phase one of that deal. he did refer to a phase two and phase three, said phase one could be signed when he goes to
to meet with world leaders. the tariffs have been delayed. the keyword, delayed. he said no decision has been made. here is what we know that is in the deal. purchases, $40 billion to $50 billion scaled over two years you're in i.t. in the deal. here is what is not in the deal. chinese agricultural subsidies and chinese tech transfers. let's bring in our team. we know what phase one looks like now. what is faced seed of going -- phase two going to bring us? thing that was in the deal that could be faced two or fees one can be successfully wrapped up his whether the tariffs will take effect. those are additional tariffs on approximately 100 exd billion dollars of chinese goods that includes iphones and tv's and
products before the holidays. that has got to be addressed in the next phase of a deal. hard are a lot of the issues. we have not heard a lot of details about ip protections or policy.olicy -- fx there are a lot of loose ins to be tied up before the summit in chile. you be watching for to see if they make any progress? the key thing is whether they can agree on how this deal will be enforced. how would the trump administration make sure china will follow through on it commitments -- on his commitments. trump has repeatedly criticized not following through and past administrations of allow that to happen. i think it would be pretty easy to see it all falling apart. onand now the focus is
november when they meet in chile. sideere a worry from your and the market side that we could move again from the terror of truce and start ramping up as in the past -- terra tourists insert ramping up as in the past? sarah: absolutely. we will see what we can put down on paper. is the model,s the negotiators have said they will do. withe saw china come back a written piece of paper with their commitments blacked out and the u.s. surprised by that and walking away from the table. it's really hard to imagine right now how they will get all of this down, signed, sealed, and delivered in were or five weeks but they were very optimistic today. we will definitely be tracking
that. sarah: is this going to change the equation much toarah, is this really going change the equation much for the farmers? is the scale of the new agreement significant enough it should change the fortunes for an economy that has been hit hard? on how quicklyds these orders can ramp up. farmers have changed their planting. i think the true question will be able to see the benefits in time for the 2020 elections. chuck is going to need them when he hits the campaign trail. he will need them to go to the ballot box. -- trump is going to need them. caroline: we have plenty of breaking news from trump. the department of justice has been allowed to investigate the bidens.
trump has beenw making statements as he leaves to fly to louisiana. joe: bloomberg technology is coming up next. have a great evening. this is bloomberg. ♪ ♪ taylor: i'm taylor riggs in san francisco. this is bloomberg technology. coming up, the u.s. and china with a partial trade deal in the latest round of talks. analysts grow more positive on apple in china with shares trading back at record level. wework on life support.