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tv   Bloomberg Surveillance  Bloomberg  January 21, 2020 4:00am-7:00am EST

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francine: the threat of a deadly virus from china, a sars concern. luxury stocks get hit. ubs misses target. the wealth management team sees unexpected outflows. president trump addresses the world economic forum shortly. what do global markets want to hear? good afternoon or good evening depending on where you are in the world. welcome to "bloomberg surveillance."
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i am francine lacqua. we will try to figure out politics, geopolitics, and all of the participants are waiting to see what president trump will say. that starts in 30 minutes. i wonder if he will talk tariffs and europe. this is where your markets are. a lot of focus because of the thely virus in china, european stocks a little on the downside. let's get the first word news. >> we begin with the global economy, it will grow but slower than expected according to the international monetary fund. 0.1% of itsdown projection in october. it is optimistic and says risks are less skewed to the
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downside. president trump and president macron may have reached a truce on digital. the readout from washington was more muted. preventement may escalation into another trade war. hashina a sars virus entered a new state of severity. the world health organization confirms person-to-person transmission. four people have died. 17 years ago the sars outbreak killed 800 people. mitch mcconnell is planning a tight timeline for president trump's impeachment trial. he plans to get house managers two days to prosecute their trial. the trial is set to start today. global news, 24 hours a day, on
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air and on quicktake by bloomberg, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in over 120 countries.. this is bloomberg. back to you in davos. francine: it is officially they one of the world economic forum in davos. business and political leaders discussed the world's problems. today sees different speakers center stage. president trump gives his first bringe speech, we will you that live in 30 minutes. also making headlines, greta thunberg is making a different pitch the delegates. what is the corporate world looking for? ,ndrey kostin, ceo, vtb bank thank you for joining us. you have a new prime minister, what does that mean for your expectations of the russian economy going forward? andrey: i think it will definitely speed up, the
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decision-making process. i think president clinton will projectard an ambitious . we are explaining to investors, a huge amount of money, $300 billion in education and infrastructure and many other things. a youngerike to have government with the people there. i expect the new government can be announced later this 50%.noon, and more than francine: international investors do not know the new prime minister well. the think there will be a national spending program? how will that a change the economy? known becausewell he was in the government for 20 years. , and what isws important for three years he was
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, anddent of investment they were acquired by deutsche bank. he knows business and the government. respected and known as a digital man. he has an ambitious and digital program. on the also be important agenda for the russian government. francine: how will the russian government change? understandall economic growth, and last year economic growth was around 1.1%. this year we should expect 1.7%, which is not enough. we believe the national program that we might exceed 3% target starting from 2021.
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that will be a big breakthrough. russia needs a higher rate of development. a case was recently filed in london, can you detail what you are alleging? vtbe are acting forth on officials. the loans are not performing, we need to restructure that. sheetched an initial term about a year ago, but in that time there was no movement. in order to get this money back, we went to the london court. francine: how much capital does vtb need to raise? andrey: we will be ok with the introduction requirements.
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plan is 8% time our of our net profit to our shareholders. francine: will the sanctions against russia hinder you? andrey: of course. shares are not subject to sanctions, but the ,eneral climate for investors to think if it is a new share or an old share. preservationor the that it is difficult under the circumstances. francine: do you want to see new shares? i do not know or expect new shares. francine: if sanctions are lifted -- andrey: since 2007 when we went to the stock exchange, we raised $14 billion.
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under sanctions, i do not think it is feasible. francine: when you look at the world economy and the price of oil, are you confident about 2020? above: i think a price $60 per barrel is good for the russian budget. surplus oft had 1.4 the gdp, quite healthy. we expect another surplus budget for 2020. francine: there is a video circulating which has allegations. when will you respond to it? andrey: it is fake news, false statements. such aseless to speak on level. we had a special report to the board of directors made by one of four companies, and they said
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there were no irregularities. there is nothing to talk about. politician, and he is using dirty methods. we cannot speak with him on the subject. francine: thank you so much for joining us. andrey kostin, ceo, vtb bank. stay with "bloomberg surveillance" at the world economic forum. the chief executive of naspers see smart money heading his direction. a speech from president trump, we will bring you that live. this is bloomberg. ♪
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francine: economics, finance, politics, this is "bloomberg surveillance." let's get to the bloomberg business flash. >> boeing may be close to getting a $10 billion loan led by citi that will bolster the playmaker. bloomberg has learned the value could be increased, commitments are due by the end of this week. it is expected to fetch 15 billion euros, one of the buyout groups prevails, the biggest private equity deal in europe for five years. the next round is expected in mid february. uber is selling its the district in india to local rival. tounderscores the efforts
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cut back on lossmaking operations. uber agreed to offload the business for 10% of the indian startup. that is your bloomberg business flash. francine: let's talk tech, naspers is one of the largest tech investors. it focuses on scaling up businesses in e-commerce, online food delivery. where is smart money headed in the sector, and what will be the biggest trend this year? dijk.oined by bob van you tried to diversify away from emerging markets. are you putting money into the u.k. and will you try again? we are a growth company. growth is in our dna, and we look for growth in growth markets, and we invest a lot in china and india, but we look for
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business models in other markets as well, the u.s. and u.k.. francine: what are you looking at at the moment? is there a specific technology that is the next big thing? delivery can be 50 times as big as it is today. investors in the trading of secondhand goods. the world needs more recycling. food delivery, a lot of us use it, but the barrier to entry is not difficult. how do you choose the right company to back? is at itsdelivery early stages today, and what we want to do is back players who see this as a step to make food cheaper and available. what is next? days,e are in the early and we look to spend interest in the stock. for us, it is important.
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we have core segments, and we think investors will be keen to be part of that. francine: is there anything in emerging markets -- i do not know if you look at the u.k. or u.s. -- i will look at that. bob: india is a good example that a lot of business models are starting to appear in the east in india and china. we see innovation happening to the u.s.s moving markets and u.k. markets. we are privileged to see that firsthand. francine: how do you think about your carbon footprint? us, food delivery is an -- an excellent example where we are at an early stage where we think it will reduce waste and create more efficiency, and be a force for good. we are not there yet. we aim to be the best.
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there are other areas where we are helping to reduce production of new goods which we love to see grow bigger and be a positive influence. francine: as you look at food delivery, where is the benchmark? where will it grow first? will it be healthy foods? in food delivery, one is always bringing a pizza to somebody, and now we see more health food and private label healthy meals that were not available in restaurants are being produced by the tens of thousands in countries like india. francine: are you selling anything else to free capital for other investments? bob: no, we are pleased with our investments and have no intention to scale. we have a lot of capital on the balance sheet and are looking to grow. isncine: president trump
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about to speak in 15 minutes. what do you need from the administration? bob: we are not active in the u.s. a globallove to see stable conducive environment, and one of the things i feel strongly about, i would love it if the u.s. would embrace what is needed to fight climate change. francine: i stand corrected, president trump will speak in one hour and 15 minutes, we had pictures of him getting out of the car. i got my time zones confused. thank you for joining us, bob van dijk. coming up and down mouse, and ask -- coming up at davos, and action-packed lineup. we will speak to larry kudlow. usn carrie lam will join right here on bloomberg tv and bloomberg radio. this is bloomberg. ♪
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francine: economics, finance, politics. this is "bloomberg surveillance ." i am francine lacqua at day one of davos. key cost targets for 2019 as investors pull money. it underscores the challenge for
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the swiss bank in turning around its wealth management business. we spoke to the chief executive about the plan. >> in the last quarter we finalize the plan, and they are implementing the actions. execution and i expect positive outcomes. -- iine: joining us now want to ask you about president trump, but we need to start with the banks. what is the level of stress given the picture of growth we are not seeing in europe? , we look ats level the investments, and investors in europe, not bad at all. there is a lot of climate investment and green investment, a lot of startups and venture capital coming in.
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you are a big investor, there is j.p. morgan and the other banks, it is tough to catch up with the u.s. banks. no, if you take j.p. morgan and morgan stanley, they are printing 14% return on equity. ubs, 12.5%. 2% differenceze in rates, it is printing at the team percent. as a result, my view is european banks are under earning. given the negative rates. francine: negative rates are here to stay. davide: i do not think so, because negative rates are a wealth tax that everybody pays. in a couple of years when people
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realize the pension is lower, they will have to move to zero. that does not mean hiking rates, it just means being normal. francine: do you think they are here to stay? >> it is important to leave the ecb to do what it does itself. i do not think a switch on italian resident of the central bank to a french president of the central bank will radically change. we are looking at low interest rates for the foreseeable future. francine: what investment does europe need? italian resident i think the other
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multinational institutions, banks will follow and the private sectors as well ♪ . ♪ ♪ look into the climate space, that will be the future. francine: what do you need from european politicians? more help on the fiscal side. -- the u.s. has a trillion dollar deficit. we keep at a 3% ceiling. currency have a relative value, so in europe a solution to hamper growth by keeping negative rates, banks have less profit. europe it is a bold investment project. the plan failed because of little liquidy and a lot of debt. this time we need a lot of equity. i think it was a success
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because we created that together with the european commission in the middle of the financial crisis. if you look at the figures and how it has impacted employment, it has been tremendous. we have a new thing coming out on investment. we used to be a big-ticket bank, but with the plan, that is what we will see in the future. francine: thank you. we will stick with you both. miss the, do not opening address, it is president trump. we will take that live an hour from now. this is bloomberg. ♪ good morning!
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download the my account app to manage your appointments making today's xfinity customer service simple, easy, awesome. i'll pass. francine: the spread of a deadly
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virus from china sparks concern. global stocks falling, european luxury stocks get hit. the yuan weakens by the most in three months. ubs misses targets. the swiss bank has its midterm goals. shares sink as wealth management sees unexpected outflows. and, davos, day one -- president trump addresses the world economic forum shortly. what do markets and global business want to hear? well, good morning, good afternoon, good evening, everyone, depending on where you are in the world. this is "bloomberg surveillance." i'm francine lacqua, here at the world economic forum in davos. let's get straight to the bloomberg first word news. here is viviana hurtado. the global economy will grow this year, but slower than expected. that is according to the international monetary fund. it predicts growth of 3.3% for 2020. that is down .1% on its projection in october, but still a gain on 2019. the imf is cautiously optimistic. it says risks are "less skewed" to the downside. and in china, a sars like viral
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15 healthas infected workers with one critically ill. that is after the world health organization confirmed person-to-person transmission. four people have died. 17 years ago, you may remember, the sars outbreak killed 800 people. and this morning, the bank of japan leaving rates unchanged for the first time in a year, raising growth projections for its economic outlook. the central bank saying overseas risks to the economy may be significant, but if they decrease, the outlook for inflation still remains week. that remains weak. global news 24 hours a day, on air and at quicktake by bloomberg, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries, i'm viviana hurtado. this is bloomberg. francine? francine: we have a lot of different views here in davos, and that will be thrown in trouble contrast on opening day, president trump on one side on climate change -- well, president trump on one side, and greta thunberg competes for the
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spotlight. president trump will speak in over an hour's. alex, what are you expecting from president trump? alexander: you need to be a future teller to tell what he is going to say. two years ago a lot of people were afraid was he going to come with a nationalistic, protectionist agenda? and his message was america is open for business. i have a feeling that will be the message today. what we don't need from trump is trade wars because that will take a hit on the economy. francine: we have to put it into context. this is also the first day of impeachment. it is difficult to know whether president trump will speak -- stick to script, is off script, or will have off the cuff remarks. are we expecting a fighting president that will put tariffs on europe or hint at those, or will he stick to an open america?
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davide: he needs to please the audience wherever he goes. -- iultimately he wants remember a few years ago when he came, the room was afraid, and gary cohn and his team -- i think the economy strong, cutting a deal with china, and europe in terms of a natural trade agreement are much more important. you could see yesterday from , parisund's phone call backs down and i think here he is looking for peace. you do not want to fight a trade war with china and open up with europe during the year of an election. phase one.t is only nothing much really has happened. a little bit of the status quo. do animal spirits come back? isxander: i think everything linked to everything in the
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global economy today. so when something happens between the u.s. and china, which is seen from a positive perspective, it hits europe quite well. i think what europe has done quite well since the u.s. took the stand it has on trade agreements and multilateralism and the wto, it has filled the power vacuum of trade by establishing bilateral trade agreements all around the world, whether it is with korea, with japan, mexico, with canada. this is their first mover advantage. when europe regulates and does a deal, the rest of the world follows. it will be interesting to see how the u.s. reacts to this. ultimately, one of the key founding members is leaving. as a result, what is left behind, they need to make choices. anything they say, people will have to take choices in europe you cannot keep postponing and delaying because if you leave
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the leadership to someone else, either the u.s. or china, europe will suffer. people in europe, by voting come as you can see through the rising populace, they want someone to stand up for what europe needs. francine: do you agree with that? alexander: i do. it paradoxically played into us pro-europeans. what have we seen since? popularity ratings of the european union rising, employment being better than it has been. the greatest trade deals we have done in european history. the one thing we have to stop is to think that europe is always pitch perfect. than analways be more international organization, less than estate, and always complicated. i punch line is in terms of decision-making -- number one, crisis, number do that number two, chaos, number three a less than optimal solution. telling: the
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government, so many questions of how they deal with the libya. if we do not fix the connection with europe but also the connection with government, how can europe really perform? davide: the issue is europe reacts under pressure. first you have to do with brexit. secondly, you have war at the border in libya. , butis the southern border italy, it is than a corridor for migrants across the border. toyou join davos, you have have security everywhere. you cannot have member states that -- you cannot have it in a private organization let alone in a government. everybody can come in without papers, it does not work anywhere. europe, under these pressures, you have no choice. ultimately, remember, in terms of life, life
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expectancy, it remains one of the nicest spots on the planet. in the u.s., the u.k., life expectancy is going down and have bad can it be if european left expectancy is going up? francine: equality is going down. alexander: but is it? remember, this is probably the best place to live on the planet. there is no question about it, in terms of our general welfare and general well-being as well. on the european union, it is a crisis management organization. so, yes, there has been different types of crisis and there continue to be. i would still argue come at the time when i was prime minister, finance minister, and foreign minister, that is when we had the big crisis. normalis more sort of a state of affairs. i would come to argue, i don't think angela merkel is weak and she has been there for a long time. she is still the lady in town. macron is trying to do francental changes in
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and he is fighting a battle. this is normal political discourse in today's world. francine: what do the markets one from the new ecb president? changingy, is it inflation targets, or is it just stopping negative rates or maybe just saying we will not go further negative? ecb from mario institutione only that acted -- there is political gridlock. today we have a stronger commission. we have two ladies at the helm, the commission and the ecb. i think they will be more pragmatic and less ideological, so i think more fiscal and a bit less monetary stimulus is the best mix. ultimately you need to rebalance your tool makes. as long as they government doesn't step up and the politicians make decisions, we
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will be here. marginalecision, the medicine having negative rates ultimately have side effects. christine has more political power and will be able to get the member states together and makes no sense. can we compete at the time when china and the u.s. are in massive fiscal spending, and we don't. francine: no one cares about the opening address and the negative thes, they just wonder why speakers not wearing a coat when it is cold. alexander: i was wondering that as well. there is this wonderful warm clothing. i thought if you want to borrow this, you can put it on your head or around your collar here. it will keep you warm, i promise. , vicene: alex stubb
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president of european bank. and david is sarah. always,acked as including the chief executives of microsoft, blackstone, citigroup. council director larry kudlow. also the south africa bank governor. all here on bloomberg tv and radio, and this is bloomberg. ♪
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francine: economics, finance, politics. this is bloomberg surveillance. let's get straight to the bloomberg business flash in new york city. here is viviana hurtado. for 20, ubs missing key cost targets. downgrades were across-the-board
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on cost efficiency and dividend growth. shining round its wealth management business -- we spoke with the ceo. quarter, there have been already implementing many of the actions, and we are ofht now in full execution speed and i expect positive outcomes. viviana: boeing is close to a loan from -- in new york city. it will bolster its position in the 37 mac -- 737 max crisis. commitments by the end of the week. no official word yet that is your bloomberg business flash. francine? francine: now let's bring you another exclusive interview, the european union had a thing to be prepared to back up its diplomacy with force. discussing sending
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troops into libya. he also addressed the you relationship with the u.s. importantcertainly an -- we had around the table not only the five permanent members of the security council, but also the unions. the african union and the european union and other crucial players, and they all agreed to keep the cease-fire, to go into a process where we have the five , andve military comity talks of reconciliation, reconstruction, and finding a political future. francine: is it time that europe gets an army? the european union started to build up the european defense union, and the armed forces are put together by the member states. but of course it is important to have a lot to offer between the armed forces, to have a common system of procurement, which we
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are building up now, and the european union needs to have power but always to have it together with crisis prevention. francine: what are you expecting from president trump tomorrow when he addresses the world economic forum? >> i am curious and eager to listen to him. it is good that he is coming. that is what davos is there for. i am interested to hear about trade topics but also technology .opics, so i am just curious francine: do you worry that there could be tariffs leveled against the european union from the u.s.? >> i think the important thing is to listen to each other and to sit down and negotiate on what we should do. we have so much in common, and there are so many fields where we should work together to improve things, but i think
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unfortunate not only to talk about trade topics but also -- it is fortunate not only to target trade topics but what we have in common. our exclusive was interview with ursula von der leyen. let's go to anne-marie horn are in. annmarie: -- annmarie hordern. annmarie: they missed key targets, and on top of that they saw assets leave the wealth management unit. this is going to be a big overhaul. talking about the challenges he faces. lvmh is lower. it also has to do with the devastating illness taking hold in asia, similar to sars. the worry for the luxury states is what does this mean ahead of a lunar new year? luxury depends on asia pacific.
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this comes on the heels of those protests in hong kong, which definitely hurt them as well. hugo boss up 4%. it is a highlight in the luxury space because fourth-quarter results beat the highest analyst estimates. on top of that, hugo, the line underneath hugo boss has a new collection out, dedicated to david bowie. i have not seen it yet, but i will look for it when it comes out in february. francine: annmarie hordern with stock movers. coming up, president trump's keynote speech. 10:30 a.m. london time. that is coming up next, and this is bloomberg. ♪
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out if something is changing. if they get a picture of what is happening in the world, changing
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the strategy of the company. francine: when you speak as chief executive, has something really changed? does greta thunberg matter to how they view the world? >> it seems to me that, yes, it has changed. at least some of them have children and they have the same concerns we have. they have to answer the same questions -- what are you going to do to help us having a future? so when i talk to company leaders, they very much talk sustainability and changing the strategy of the companies. francine: do you think this is a movement -- i don't know if you call it a movement or a conscience, but is this a danger that it is fashionable for a couple of years and then people forget about it? robert: everyone should worry about that, that it is talk and talk and talk and then they go away and nothing has happened. in a way, we have to change a system.
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we do not have to fix the system, but we have to become aware that the external problems are part of the interior system logic. we have to change that. i hope we talk about this in davos. francine: some of the green parties have the power to change things. you think it will happen in germany? we have been talking with the german government for 15 years now. too long, if you ask me. we are prepared to take more responsibility. then of course, not just for the sake of it, but for the sake of changing politics. that means that ecological thinking, renewable energy, sustainability in -- was the coleader of germany's's opposition green party. speaking to me earlier on. year's worldis
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economic forum gets underway. we are looking to what will likely dominate the agenda in davos. perhaps highlighting the gulf between the -- and everyone else, at least 19 billionaires are joining bankers and annualians for their pilgrimage. nearly 3000 names representing 110 company -- countries come and 53 heads of state. aggress --rump's address is likely to be different than last year and the year before. he stay on script or not? >> president trump -- does he ever stay on script? we are expecting him to hopefully address the global economy, and obviously a lot of the trade war issues have not subsided. his relationship with them at least -- you have delegates from all over the world, including saudi, including qatar -- everyone will want to hear what his task is in terms of international relations.
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you spoke about green initiatives. greta thunberg spoke this morning, and there was a big delegation, but there was not by any means a line outside the door. now she is speaking again at 1:00 today. i know you're speaking to greenpeace later today, right, so greenpeace has already come out and said that $1.4 trillion with fossil fuels is what a lot of the delegates here are exposed to. will trump support the initiated that these people have taken on, or will he be against of what -- against what davos stands for? we spoke with european commission president yesterday, ursula von der leyen. is there a risk that he shows up today and imposes or hints that tariffs -- at tariffs against europe? this probably will not be the case, so at least we have -- what are we going to do about
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the digital taxes? i don't know that that will come up today. there is an event just tomorrow. on thursday lunch with all sorts of people that will be there. we will see how it plays out during the week, but we do not expect it necessarily from trump today during the lunchtime hour. francine: what do you expect from greta later today? she spoke earlier. it is like a solo speech. sonali: when i was watching people are just showing up. by the time she speaks this afternoon, a lot of the bankers will finally be inside the room. she might be able to speak way more directly to them. she said it is not about opinions, it is about science. she will build a case for people and how they can make changes for people in their businesses. what are we looking to for the rest of the week?
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what of the bankers doing here? sonali: let's be honest, they are here for the deals. we know merkel, there are a lot of big heads of state, but there is google, facebook, cloud flare, the new kid in town -- david solomon played at their party last year or this year around, they will show up there again. hopefully they can deal with davos. basak fromonali bloomberg. tom keene joins me here at davos with a whole slate of interviews you will not want to miss on bloomberg, right here. we will of course bring you the u.s. presidential address, and we will have a lot of banking chief executives. this is bloomberg. ♪ hi! we're glad you came in, what's on your mind?
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we're here to make life simple. easy. awesome. ask. shop. discover. at your local xfinity store today. francine: the spread of a deadly virus from china sparks concern. global stocks falling, european luxury stocks get hit. the yuan weakens by the most in
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three months. ubs misses targets. the swiss bank cuts its midterm goals. shares sink as wealth management sees unexpected outflows. and, davos, day one -- president it is day two. but president trump addresses the world economic forum shortly. what do markets and global business want to hear? well, good morning, good afternoon, good evening, everyone. this is bloomberg surveillance. tom and francine this week the world -- at economic forum. let me give everyone we are speaking to, and then i will put you on the spot. this is who we are speaking to in the next couple of hours. we have larry kudlow, the chief executive of microsoft, black room -- blackrock, and citigroup. -- blackstone, and citigroup. every year there is a greta, somebody important, but
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what is so important to me is the intellectual component that is here through these business leaders to listen to. more than any other davos in 16 years, this is the davos with the theory of academics, global warming, and some economic theory. it has really devolved into people who really want -- they may not agree with it, but they really want to listen to those theories. francine: the problem is, you could want to listen, but it depends on if you implemented into your strategy. president trump addressing the economic forum in 30 minutes. and we have -- i was not supposed to bring it up, but there are so much better than expected expectations for the future. that we areportant seeing this percolation over the last number of months, a leveling out. we are going to get to dr. brammer in a moment. one of the risks is the stability within the global
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economy that maybe was not there six months ago. francine: a couple of things happening with the oil price, but we will get to that let's get straight to first word news with viviana hurtado. viviana: president donald trump may be in davos, but today his impeachment trial begins. mitch mcconnell plans a tight timeline paired senator mcconnell will give house managers two days to prepare their case against the president or his proposed rules allow the president to seek a quick dismissal of the charges. dispute between the u.s. and france -- a french diplomat says this year neither president trump nor president macron will impose punitive tariffs. the battle was over a french tax that hit american internet giants such as google, amazon, and apple. in china, the outbreak of a deadly virus has gotten worse. at least six people have died. any health workers have been infected. that is a sign the disease is
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more easily transmitted than previously thought and it is reminiscent of sars, the pandemic that killed 800 people in asia 17 years ago. the bank of japan taking a brighter view of the economy for the first time in a year. the central bank raising growth projections. it left its main policy settings unchanged, further indicating the boj is unlikely to add to its stimulus. global news 24 hours a day, on air and at quicktake by bloomberg, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in i amthan 120 countries, viviana hurtado. this is bloomberg. davos, help me. francine: thank you so much, viviana. let's get straight to london with dani burger. u.s. futuresseeing and european stocks tracked asia lower. these investors -- one of the concerns is the outbreak and the potential spread of the deadly virus in china. i have been speaking with people who say we need to figure out the scale and magnitude before
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determining the lasting impact. a lot of luxury stocks in the european index moving lower. we are seeing the yuan weakening the most against the dollar in three months. then we see a bid for havens. gold basically flat, but we see the and and treasuries, investors moving in there. analysts say we could see seven bids lower on u.s. ten-year deals -- 10 year yields. one of the biggest decline is on the stoxx 600 is ubs, down the most in basically a month. francine? tom? tom: thank you so much. in the 16 years i have been here, this is one of the strongest hours we have ever done. stephen schwarzman is scheduled to be here with us later after we hear from the president of the united states. we start strong with ian bremmer of eurasia group. timely, and he releases it this year with america front and center. part of that is our coverage of
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the president, and then we will hear from the senate impeachment trial. that will be 12:00 p.m. new york time. we are thrilled that ian bremmer begins our stay here in davos. why did you make the usa top risk for this year? ian: the size of the market is massive, and the am president did nature of the election -- part of the population with think it is rigged. you will have a period of time when we have had the election, and in all likelihood we have not agreed on who the next president is paired we have not had that since bush-gore. this is more unprecedented than people are prepared to accept. tom: who is the president talking to as he comes to davos? ian: he loves it here. he was here three years ago and everyone thought it was going to be a disaster, and he had a great time.
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the ceo's were extremely nice to him. tom: remember the lunch? did you go to that lunch, francine? francine: i remember the billionaires fighting to listen to the president. ian: absolutely. the delegates here may not like trump, but they like his policies. they like the regulatory rollback, they like his cabinet, they like his tax policy. i did an informal poll last night, about 40, 50 delegates. on balance i would say that they think he will win a second term, and there is zero panic that that might have in your have gratitude that you can have -- that that might happen. you can have greta here, but people should know that the powerbrokers in the room and the closed-door, what they are actually thinking. francine: president trump does his inaugural address on the day his impeachment trial starts. will he be saying, europeans, you're not doing enough, because
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he needs an adversary to distract, or will he keep everyone on -- ian: i would be very surprised if he is adversarial with this group. i would suspect this is trump saying victory lap, i am the greatest ever, the economy is doing well, the markets are taking off, i got rid of soleimani, i am killing isis and al qaeda. he may talk about how bad and unfair the impeachment is, but this will be a triumphalist, unilateralist president. francine: does the voter care about what trump says in davos? ian: they care for a day, and then they move onto the next thing. these cycles are incredibly short, but it is interesting to see how the global markets and the global investor community respond. this is a group that wants access, they pay for access, and
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they are pleased when that happens. tom: we will talk about stephen schwarzman's support of the president. ian, you have been studying this for decades per how alone is america right now because of this president and this president's policies? not only in davos but generally worldwide in the eurasia world. how alone our way? ian: it is more alone because of this president. he does not care as much for traditional alliances or multilateral institutions america has created. but let's be clear, the united states is in decline. the chinese are spinning money internationally -- in declinee we versus china? ian: it is very clear that the olsen road is a bigger event than davos. but america's elation shipped -- these are american allies.
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-- but america's relationship -- these are american allies. it it is in decline in the dollar, production and strength, production of gas and food. when trump is not president next year, that is still going to be true. what kind of capitalism will china having five or 10 years from now? ian: the fact that the chinese are not integrating or aligning in any way with western-style capitalism, that is something the ceos are having problems coming to terms with. the message from this platform has been winning globally. globalization and free market capitalism. it is not anymore. the chinese are not aligning with that. have we peaked with globalization? ian: definitely. the decision of the united states and the chinese to decouple from each other in terms of technology, the single
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biggest step away from globalization we have seen in the 50 years since davos has been created. tom: richard edelman is scheduled to join us. i cannot say enough about this important document, the edelman trust barometer. i was stunned at the view of capitalism from the general society and the elites. ian: it is hard to claim that the average american is capitalist when the average american doesn't have capital. that was the way i was raised there it my mom said they are not taking care of you, they are all going to lie they be government and -- richard edelman said ceos have to be much more activist about explaining how everybody gets inclusive. do we need jamie dimon, michael corbat, and the others to be more assertive about distributing the benefits of
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capitalism to america? ian: know, we don't need them to explain. we need to problem to be resolved. between they -- we need less inequality in the united states, less people to feel left behind and that the system is rigged. there is no document they can sign, there is no ad they can take in the paper that will change that reality if the reality doesn't change. not only has global and american inequality increased in the last several years, but now we have an economy that is softening globally. oneimf just yesterday -- has to think that in that environment, ceo's will be more laserlike focus on returns, irrespective of what they are saying. tom: editorializing. totally agree with that. francine: a lot can happen between now and the u.s. election, but is there a problem with president trump's support plateauing at 42%? is that enough to win? on: first of all, it depends
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who the democratic nominee is. if bernie sanders were the nominee, i think it is enough to win. if it is joe biden, it might not be. keep in mind, this is an unprecedented election, not only because it is about trump and turnout is likely to be high. also because there are mass amounts of the money -- of money that bloomberg is -- because the role that trump is likely to play in terms of his willingness to abuse power, when impeachment has been broken, is also going to be news. it is hard to make that call. tom: one more question with ian bremmer. say,ine: can i just michael bloomberg is running for president. tom: i don't want to do the disclaimer. ian: i can do it if you want. eiko bloomberg is running for president. -- michael bloomberg is running for president. ian bremmer, this is so
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important. you say ceo's cannot affect and attachment with the american public with words and lip service. what is the prescriptive policy that will reattach america to capitalism? what is the two-do list for washington to get this done? ian: i would say that almost every american ceo that i know tells me in the next five to 10 years that they can make more money with fewer people. that reality somehow is going to need to be changed by coming up with jobs for more people. they will have to invest much more in training. they will have to hire more, not less per they will have to raise wages for the working in the middle class. they have to do that as a reality when the government is not stepping in. it does not really matter what they say. and they are going to be fighting upstream. the fourth industrial revolution -- that was come up -- that came up a few years ago. for the average worker to say
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capitalism does not work, the postindustrial resolution -- not part of it. tom: ian bremmer, thank you for starting us out. i cannot say enough about their top risk, 2020. he is with us all because well. coming up, stephen schwarzman, the blackstone chief executive officer. he has been a strong supporter of this president of the united states. francine? arecine: in 15 minutes, we expecting president trump to give the inaugural address of davos, 2020, just underneath the are of the center where we live. we expect president trump to come out of that door and briefly speak to reporters before taking the stage. we will have plenty more from president trump's address and what business leaders want to hear, and what they will actually here. this is bloomberg. ♪
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>> we want to invest in clean technology, in green new procedures, and we know there is a lot of innovation behind it that we need to step forward with. francine: that was ursula von der leyen. i asked her a little bit about the relationship between the u.s. and europe, and she said let's wait to see what president trump says, but reminded everyone that the u.s. and europe have been very close for the last 60 years. there,ere was a tension a tension of economics and finance, but to me what it is, it is about economies that are generally doing better than anyone expected six months ago. francine: yes. ian bremmer from eurasia is
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still with us. something you said when we started the interview, which struck me, is that the news cycle is very story -- is very short. are we at the brink of war, you said, no, we are moving on. do we move on too quickly? do the markets in general process the linkage between these geopolitical events? ian: we are moving on too quickly in the sense that there are big things structurally that get lost in the news cycle. the fact that you actually have a u.s.-china relationship that is getting deeply more conflictual, irrespective of a phase-one trade deal, is generally lost in the headlines. it is happening on tech, on hong kong, on taiwan, broadly speaking. i think there are a lot of things like that. we don't care about outcomes as much. the war in libya -- americans
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are not a part of it, for example. those things are tectonic shifts that are happening at the same time as all of these headlines. "the new york times" yesterday i saw in the first three years, trump was not in an article on the first page. that is a cause for celebration. francine: if you look at libya and how the europeans are doing, is it time that you actually get an army? ian: it is certainly time that the e.u. gets a stronger voice collectively on issues. the ability to do that is negligible. they are not spending nearly as much. the alignment on defense between macron and merkel could not be farther apart. it is not going to happen. -- in yourr you asia eurasia group top risk, buried in there this year is global warming. clearly this year, there has been a fulfillment of 10 and 15 years of world economic forum work with real scientists to get to this point. can we actually develop a global
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xrategy on global warming, the united states, or does the rest of the world have to wait for the u.s. to climb on board this important debate? tom: i think there is an in norma's difference between -- an thinkus difference -- i about larry fink, i think about satya nadella. both of those state was were meaningful and will lead to further knock-on actions with ceo's. but the governments themselves are nowhere close. the sovereign actors are more important. we will not see that alignment and we are certainly not going to see the idea of zero net carbon footprint. in order to get an agreement between the american, the chinese, the indians, we need the net carbon footprint. we are not going there. tom: particularly the global warming of the southern hemisphere -- ian bremmer with us on this important morning at the world economic forum.
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the president of the united states, with his tangible distractions in washington, we are going to have later today the impeachment hearings. you will see that on bloomberg television and bloomberg radio. that right now, one of the images of the three wings of this very large commerce center -- many of these 2000 people are gathered. a glimpse of the president and his substantial entourage, including lawrence kudlow, his national economic director, in john -- in conversation with jon ferro and myself. well.ary mnuchin as we await the president of the united states here at davos. please stay with us. this is bloomberg. ♪
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tom: good morning, everyone. the world economic forum meetings in davos. a most eventful day. we are moments away from the scheduled cage of the president -- the scheduled speech of the president of the united states. ian bremmer is with us. 10, 15 days ago we were trying to be smarter on iran, trying to be smarter on iraq. stephen cook, council on foreign relations, wrote in foreign policy, "it is time to leave iraq." is it time to leave iraq? tom: the u.s. -- ian: the u.s. does not want to leave iraq.
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the interests are reducing. smart countries in the region are recognizing that, and they are planning accordingly. tom: go ahead, francine. francine: i just don't understand -- if you look at the middle east, how do you make it more stable? who is a force for good that can make a meaningful difference? ian: in the near term, it is not about a force for good. in the near term, it is a bunch of people in the middle east who feel left out and are turning to radicalism. you need to educate these people. mohammad bin salman is probably doing more. next, the president of the united states. this is bloomberg. ♪
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♪ the meetings of the world economic forum it davos as we say -- at davos, as we say good morning to you.
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here, atalk about perfect day as we await the president of the united states in a widely anticipated speech with a whole different energy than what we saw three years ago. dramatically different. francine: we spoke to a number of people and the question is will he come and try to antagonize people? they put the swiss franc on sayr fx watchlist but many he is here because he wants to please the crowd. he likes to please the crowd and i thought by the general participants as he will try to get a victory lap by business people without antagonizing anyone. tom: tell me what we are doing in london? what do you want to do? let's go to new york city, extremely busy newsday. viviana: we are going to stay
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with donald trump. in a few hours, he becomes the third president if each -- face impeachment in the president -- united states. mitch mcconnell's rules would give the democrats two days to present their case, and he wants to prevent both sides from calling witnesses. if the senate votes to allow it, that could change. a new iowa poll has joe biden leaving. of 24%en has the support of likely caucus-goers. elizabeth warren was second place it 19%. -- at 19%. in libya, oil output has plunged. -- hetrong -- a sign of is keeping the oil fields shut. russia. is backed by
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vancouver, lawyers for huawei's ceo say the chinese executives should not be extradited to the u.s., arguing her crimes do not meet canada's legal test for extradition. ae was arrested more than year after the u.s. accused her of fraud. global news 24 hours a day, on air and @quicktake on twitter, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. i am viviana hurtado. this is bloomberg. francine: thank you so much. in davos trump arrived about two hours ago and there is cameras tracking the movement of the president. we were seeing him get out of his car. at a set ofng looking down, where we are on the
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conference center roof looking down. roof, a beautiful view of switzerland, it is quiet. usually this valley has helicopters and other noises going on, and it is quiet because they have shut down the valley on the security matters with the president. this is three or four floors below and a large conference center, a modern building, and an espresso bar that is frequent and -- frequented too often for us. looking at the treasury and the domestic policy now, i am going to give you an open question. secretary mnuchin comes with the president. what is his biggest challenge in treasury? >> probably avoiding trade wars around the world. 2020,w, we have seen for
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a trade war with france was put on ice and you never know when that will be back on the table. the u.k. is negotiating a trade deal with the u.s. and they need to make more progress. tom: mr. trump and mr. macron have come to a standoff on the digital tax. francine: they have put it on gonebut mr. trump has after the surplus and put the swiss franc on the watchlist. i am now friendly with china, let me fix some other part of the world. what he go after europe? saleha: if he needs to. it seems like tariffs work. hence was being stubborn and floats the idea of tariffs, and now they are barreling to get him to do anything to put those on ice. francine: tariffs on french wine
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and cheese, flying yourself in all the time. at the commerce center where president trump launch his inaugural address. how does the government see the impeachment process? we heard president trump lash out, but how do people around him deal with that? saleha: secretary steven mnuchin since he has been there since the beginning, there is very few left. i have asked the secretary questions, how do you deal with the impeachment and what does it mean for the economy? ,hey stick to their party line only talk about the economy and markets. mike pompeo has had more of a difficult time staying out of that. francine: thank you so much. as we await president trump,
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live pictures of the commerce center where he will give his inaugural address at the world economic forum 2020. this is bloomberg. ♪
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♪ everyone.morning, "surveillance." we await the president of the united states within the busy schedule of preparing, maybe to speak to the press. the president in one of the private rooms. there is a number of them tucked amongnd he will go out
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1200 people in the main hall room at the congress center and give a different speech from three years ago. rogoff, and we will rip up the script. any number of things to talk about. who will the president be talking to you today? is he speaking to the global elite or someone else? kenneth: i have no idea. certainly, he will be triumphant. he was three years ago and he will be more so now what the stock market doing well, the usual on steroids. tom: there has been a trump strategy to his economics. is that a strategy you can teach at harvard? kenneth: not the trade policy. i think things are a little better but only in the sense
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when you hit your head against the wall and stopped it feels better. it is great for research of showing how it disrupts the economy and the problems it causes. there are other basics like deregulation and things like sure i could not shape it into something sufficiently coherent. francine: a lot of people in the markets say tariffs work. president trump got what he wanted out of china. kenneth: it is absolutely the case that something needed to reset the u.s.-china relationship, and on this issue he started something that future presidents of both parties will continue, a realization we will wake up in four years and if the world has not melted -- tom: this is dr. schwab with the president of the united states.
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i will be making a speech and we will be leaving shortly. it is important. it is just a hoax overseas, witchhunt that is been going on for years, and it strikes me as disgraceful, but we look forward to being here. we are meeting with the biggest companies in the world, the biggest businesses in the world, and world leaders to the benefit of the united states. [indiscernible] mr. trump: i am a big believer in the environment. the environment is very important. -- the senators on trial, sir? francine: that was very brief. a very brief what we call doorstop in journalistic speak. i think he said i am a big believer in sustainability. tom: in the environment.
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we are here with kenneth rogoff of harvard university who has been here with us for years. ,here are all of these issues this year clearly the environment and global warming is front and center. i was speaking about the horrific air pollution of india, and what i see is the united states has been successful. the mckinsey study shows the united states has done a terrific 30 to 40 year job on the environment. do you look at america as removed, or does the president have to become more inclusive? kenneth: of course we have to work with -- tom: but he doesn't want to do that. kenneth: i understand that. the basis of the environment is the stock of carbon out there that we created, and we are telling the emerging markets we flatlined, you are causing problems, stop doing it, but we
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are poor and you are asking is not to develop. tom: i want to go to the great economist ronald coast. you think it will be an easy part of the coursework and it is a really -- it is really six that -- sophisticated stuff. america wants to believe there is no externality or price to keeping the industrial society the way it is. how do we move beyond the american view? kenneth: this is a problem where it is not easy to find a president. wars, butconnected by china and india and asia in general is building one coal plant a week. their pollution, their carbon releases are soaring. europe and the united states have flatlined, but we are
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saying we will put border taxes on year products. -- you are products, stop what you are doing. small fraction a of what it is in the united states, they say, we want to develop. ultimately there has to be a global carbon tax. , has to be therm world, but we have to grease the wheels because they will not just go along with us. francine: kenneth rogoff of harvard university stays with us. we will talk about sustainability. it is an interesting tuesday in davos as we await president trump to start his inaugural speech. this is bloomberg. ♪
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tom: from the world economic forum, dr. clouse schwab celebrating the anniversary, 15 years of the world economic forum, and he does this with an important speech. carrie lam was here yesterday from hong kong, angela merkel will be here, and steve schwarzman coming up. we are here with ken rogoff it is so different than the victory
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lap the president took three years ago. toncine: it was interesting hear ian bremmer say the president will get another victory lap but the timing is a little awkward because the impeachment is going to start. tom: let's walk through the process. the house of representatives has impeached the president but that does not mean he is guilty. they have walked across the documentsd handed the and read the documents to a senate which is 100 senators holding their own trial with the chief justice, and we will see that today on bloomberg. francine: i have a couple of questions on what we will hear from the president. he will talk about the environment. it was interesting to hear him speak to reporters on his way into the conference center saying, i am a big believer in the environment, unclear on what
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this means given his position on the environment in the past, and it depends on whether he will stay on script or not. het year and the year before was on script. tom: we will bring you dr. rogoff right now for perspective. schwab apartaus from the president of the united states? kenneth: you mean that relationship? tom: the theory of schwab, the globalism of schwab versus the president. kenneth: there is a world of difference. schwab believes in technocratic solutions, a carbon tax, analyzing things and bringing people together. tom: thank you so much. now, the president of the united states. an honor tot is
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address the distinguished members of this organization for the second time as president. when i spoke at this forum two years ago, i told you we had launched the great american comeback. today i am proud to declare that the united states is in the midst of an economic boom, the likes of which the world has never seen before. we have regained our stride. we discovered our spirit, and reawakened the powerful machinery of american enterprise. america is thriving and flourishing, and winning like never before. alone, the united states concluded two extraordinary trade deals, the agreement with china, and the deald states-mexico-canada , the two biggest trade deals ever made.
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these represent a new model of trade for the 21st century, agreements that are fair, reciprocal, and prioritize the needs of workers and families. turnaroundconomic has been nothing short of spectacular. when i took office three years ago, america's economy was in a dismal state. under the previous administration, 200,000 manufacturing jobs had vanished, wages were flat and falling, almost 5 million more americans have left the labor force than had gotten jobs, and 10 million people had been added to the foodstamp roles. experts predicted a decade of very slow growth, or maybe even negative growth, high unemployment, and a dwindling workforce, and very much a shrinking middle class. millions of hard-working,
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ordinary citizens felt neglected, trade, forgotten. -- betrayed, forgotten. they were losing faith in the system. before my presidency began, the outlook for many nations looked week. economists warned of a worldwide recession. for globalions growth were at a number no one wanted to think about. pessimism had taken root deep in the minds of leading thinkers, business leaders, and policymakers, yet despite all the cynics i have never been more confident in america's future. verge of aere on the profound economic resurgence if we did things right, one that would generate a historic wave of investment, wage growth, and job creation.
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i knew that if we unleashed the potential of our people, if we regulations,ashed and we did that at a level that has never been done before, fixed broken trade deals and fully tapped american energy, that prosperity would come thundering back at a record speed. that is exactly what we did and that is exactly what happened. since my election, america has gained over 7 million jobs, a number unthinkable. i wouldn't say it, would not talk about it, but that was the number i had in mind. the projection was 2 million, we did 7 million, more than three times the governments projections. the unemployment rate is less is the, 4%, 5%, and 3.5% lowest in more than 50 years.
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the average unemployment rate for my administration is the lowest or any u.s. president in recorded history. -- for any u.s. president in recorded history. we started out at reasonably high rates and we are no longer concentrating wealth in the hands of a few. we are creating the most inclusive economy ever to exist. americans ofg up every race, color, religion, and greed. unemployment rates among african-americans, hispanic americans, and asian americans have reached record lows. african-american youth unemployment has reached the lowest it has ever been in the history of our country. african-american poverty has plummeted to the lowest rate recorded. the unemployment rate for women reach the lowest level since
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1953 and women comprise a majority of the american work force. that is for the first time. the unemployment rate for veterans has dropped to a record low. the unemployment rate for disabled americans has reached an all-time record low. workers without a high school diploma have achieved the lowest unemployment rate recorded in u.s. history. wages are rising across the board, and those at the bottom of the income ladder are farying the percentage by largest gains. workers' wages are growing faster than management wages. bottoms growth for the 10% is outpacing the top 10%, something that has not happened. paychecks for high school graduates are rising faster than for college graduate. young americans just entering the workforce are also sharing
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in america's extraordinary prosperity. since i took office, more than 2 million millennials have gotten grownnd their wages have by nearly 5% annually, a number that was unthinkable. nobody would have ever thought it was possible three years ago. americansumber of between the ages of 25 and 34 are now working. in the eight years before he took office, over 300,000 working age people left the workforce. in three years in my administration, 3.5 million people have joined the workforce. 10 million people have been lifted off welfare in less than three years. celebrating the dignity of work is a fundamental pillar of our agenda. this is a blue-collar boom.
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since my election, the net worth of the bottom half of wage earners has increased by plus 47%, three times faster than the increase for the top 1%. income isn household at the highest level ever recorded. ,he american dream is back bigger, better, and stronger than ever before. no one is benefiting more than america's middle class. we have created 1.2 million manufacturing and construction jobs, a number also unthinkable after losing 60,000 factories under the previous two administrations. hard to believe when you hear 60,000 factories. america has gained in a short time, time -- period of and we will rapidly be beating
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the 60,000 number that we lost, except these will be bigger, newer, and the latest. years of stagnation have given way to a roaring geyser of opportunity. u.s. markets have soared more than 50% since my election, adding more than $19 trillion to household wealth and boosting 401(k)s, pensions, and college savings accounts for millions of hard-working families. these great numbers are many things, and it is despite the fact that the fed has raised rates too fast and lowered too slowly. even now as the united states is by far the strongest economic power in the world, it is not even close -- it is going to be close, but a lot of good things happen to us and some not good things happened to other places.
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we are forced to compete and we compete with nations that are getting negative rates, meaning they get paid to borrow money, something i could get use to. got to pay back your loan? how much am i getting? nevertheless, we still have the best numbers we have had in so many different areas. approachonservative and we have a tremendous upside potential when all of the trade deals and mass of deregulation -- mess of deregulation starts kicking in. the trade deals are starting to kick in, the regulations are kicking in, and i see such tremendous potential for the future. we have not even started, because the numbers we are talking about our massive. the time for skepticism is over. people are flowing back into our
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country. companies are coming back into our country. many of you are coming back in with your plans and factories, thank you. it is undeniable and unmatched around the world. america achieved a stunning turnaround not by making minor changes, but by adopting a new approach centered entirely on the well-being of the american worker. on taxes,sion we make trade, regulation, energy, immigration, and more is focused on improving the lives of everyday americans. we are determined to create the highest standard of living anyone can imagine and right now, that is what we are doing for our workers, the highest in the world. we will ensure the working and middle class reap the largest highest dutys
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is to its own citizens. only when nations put their citizens first will people be fully invested in their futures. in the united states, we are building an economy that works for everyone, restoring the bonds of love and loyalty that unites the citizens and powers nations. today, i hold up the american model as an example to the world of a working system of free enterprise that will produce the most benefits for the most people in the 21st century and beyond, a pro-worker, pro-citizen, profamily agenda demonstrates how a nation can andve when it's communities companies work together for the good of the whole nation. as part of this vision, we ofsed the largest package
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tax cuts and reforms and american history. -- child taxe tax credit, and lifting 60,000 single mothers and their one million children out of poverty and out of poverty quickly. we passed the first ever tax credit for employers passing paid maternal leave, and past paid family leave for government employees as a model for the country. we made childcare much more affordable and reduced or eliminated childcare wait lists all across the nation. our childcare reforms are supporting working parents and ensuring their children have access to high-quality care and education, all of which they very much deserve. tax fromd our business
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the highest in the developed world down to one that is not only competitive but one of the lower taxes. we created nearly 9000 opportunity zones in distressed communities where capital gains on long-term investments are tremendousro, and wealth is pouring into areas that 400 years so nothing. 35 million americans who live in these areas have seen their home values rise by more than $22 billion. my administration has also made historic investment in historically black colleges and universities. i saved hbcus. we saved them. they were going out and we saved them. we are removing roadblocks to success and rewarding businesses that invest in workers, families, and communities, and have launched the most ambitious
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campaign on job killing regulations. for every regulation adopted, we are removing eight old regulations, which will save american households an average of $3100 per year. everyoneing to be for two, and we have done eight. today, i urge other nations to follow our example and liberate your citizens from the crushing weight of bureaucracy. with that, you have to run your countries the way you want. we are restoring the constitutional law in america which is essential to our economy, liberty, and future. that is why we have appointed over 190 federal judges, a record, to interpret the law as written, 190 federal judges, and
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two supreme court judges. as a result of our efforts, investment is pouring into our country. 2019, thest half of united states attracted nearly one quarter of foreign direct investment in the world. think of that, 25% of all foreign investment around the world came into the united states, and that number is increasing rapidly. to every business looking for a place they are free to build, invest, thrive, and succeed, there is no better place than the united states. building an part of inclusive society, we established a national council for the american worker. we want every citizen regardless of age or background to have the cutting edge skills to compete and succeed in the work waste. -- workplace. this includes artificial
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intelligence, quantum computing, and 5g. leadership, our pledge to workers has become a national movement with over 400 companies committing to provide new job and training opportunities to close to 15 million american students and workers, 15 million. america is making sweeping changes to place workers and their families at the center of our national agenda. perhaps the most transformative change of all is on trade reform , where we are addressing chronic problems that have been ignored, tolerated, or enabled for decades. our leaders did nothing about what happened to us on trade. elected, china's predatory practices were undermining trade for everyone, but no one did anything about it except allow it to keep getting worse and worse.
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leadership, america confronted the problem. ,nder our new phase i agreement phase two is starting shortly, china agreed to substantially do things that they would not have done, it to protect intellectual property, stop forced technology transfers, remove trade barriers , where weltural goods were treated so badly, opened its financial sector -- that is done -- and make it a stable currency, backed by strong enforcement. our relationship with china has probably never been better. we went through a rough patch but it has never been better. my relationship with president xi is extraordinary. he is for china, i am for the
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u.s., but other than that, we love each other. china will spend an additional $200 million over two years on american services, agriculture and energy and manufactured goods. $200ll be taking in billion when it finishes. these achievements would not withoutn accomplished the implementation of tariffs, and we are using them on others too. that is why most of our cherubs -- tariffs on china will remain in place throughout phase two negotiation. earlier, we ended the nafta disaster, one of the worst trade deals ever made, not even close, and replaced it with the incredible new trade deal,
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usmca. in the nearly 25 years after nafta, the u.s. lost one in four manufacturing jobs, including one in four vehicle manufacturing jobs. it was an incentive to leave the country. it exemplified the decades long failures of the trading system. it shifted wealth to the hands of a few, promoted massive outsourcing, drove down wages, and shuttered plants and factories by the thousands. they would leave our country, make the product, sell it to our country and we would end up with no jobs and no taxes. this is the wreckage that i was elected to clean up. it is probably the reason i ran for president more than anything, i could not understand why we were losing these jobs to other countries at such a rapid
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rate. it got worse and worse and it is the primary reason i ran. new systemwith a that puts workers before the special interests, the special interests will do just fine but the workers come first. the usmca is a result of the broadest coalition ever assembled free trade agreement -- manufacturing, agriculture, and labor strongly endorsed the deal. it passed in congress overwhelmingly. it shows how to solve the 21st century challenge, protecting intellectual property, expanding digital trade, reassuring last -- lost jobs and raising living standards. the united states has concluded , great trade deal with japan approximately $40 billion, and
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completely negotiated -- renegotiated our deal with south korea. we are negotiating other transactions with other countries, and we look forward to negotiating a new deal with the united kingdom. they have a wonderful new prime minister who wants very much to make a deal. to protect our security and economy, we are boldly embracing american energy independence. the united states is by far the number one producer of oil and natural gas in the world. while many european countries struggle with crippling energy costs, the american energy revolution is saving american families $2500 a year in lowering electric bills and numbers that people said could not happen, and also importantly, prices at the pump. we have been so successful that
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the united states no longer needs to import energy from hostile nations. with an abundance of american natural gas available, our european allies no longer have to be vulnerable to unfriendly energy suppliers either. we urge our friends in europe to use america's vast supply and achieve true energy security. with u.s. companies and researchers leading the way, we are on the threshold of virtually unlimited reserves of energy, including from traditional fuels, lng, next-generation nuclear power, and gas hydrate technologies. i am proud to report the united states has among the cleanest air and drinking water on earth, and we will keep it that way. , it is out with a report the cleanest it has been in the last 40 years.
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we are committed to conserving the majesty of god's creation and the natural beauty of our world. announceam pleased to the united states will join one trillion trees initiative launched at the world economic forum, one trillion trees. [applause] mr. trump calling we will continue to show strong leadership and growing and better managing our trees and forests. this is not a time for pessimism. this is a time for optimism. not a goodubt is thought process. this is a time for tremendous hope and joy and optimism and action, but to embrace the possibilities of tomorrow, we must reject the perennial prophets of doom and predictions of the apocalypse.
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ofy are the heirs yesterday's foolish fortunetellers and we all have them. they want to see us do badly but we do not let that happen. they predicted an overpopulation crisis in the 1960's, mass starvation in the 1970's, and an end of oil in the 1990's. these alarmists always demand absolute power to control all aspects of our lives. we will never let radical socialists destroy our country or eradicate our liberty. america will always be in the proud, strong, and unyielding bastion of freedom. in america, we understand what the pessimist refused to see, that a growing and vibrant market economy focused on the future lifts the human spirit and focuses creativity long
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enough to overcome any challenge by far. the great scientific breakthroughs of the 20th century from penicillin to modern transportation to breakthrough vaccines have lifted living standards and saved billions of lives around the world. we are continue to work on things you will be hearing about in the near future, and even today sitting here now you would not believe it is possible that we have found the answers. you will be hearing about it, but we have been -- we have found answers to things people said would not be possible. the wonders of the last century will pale in comparison to what today's young innovators will achieve because they are doing things that nobody thought even feasible to begin. we continue to embrace technology, not to shun it.
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when people are free to innovate, millions will live longer, happier, healthier lives. for three years, america has shown the world the path to a prosperous future is putting workers first, choosing growth, and helping entrepreneurs bring their dreams to life. if anyone doubts what is possible in the future, we only need look at the towering achievements of the past. only a few hundred miles from here are some of the great cities of europe, teaming centers of commerce and culture. each is full of reminders what human drive and imagination can achieve. centuries ago, at the time of the renaissance, skilled craftsmen and laborers looked upward and built the structures that still touch the human heart. to this day, some of the greatest structures in the world have been built hundreds of
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years ago. citizens started construction on what would be a duomo ofproject, the florence. incredible, incredible place. while the technology did not yet exist to complete their design, city fathers forged ahead anyway, certain they would figure it out someday. the citizens of florence did not accept limits of their high aspirations and so the great dome was finally built. in france, another century long project continues to hold such a grip on our hearts and souls that even 800 years after its construction, when the cathedral of notre dame was engulfed in flames last year, such a sad sight to watch, unbelievable
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for those of us who considered it one of the great monuments in representing so many different things. the whole world grieved. now stands sanctuary site -- and chart, a that is hard to believe, but we know notre dame will be restored magnificently. the great bells will once again ring out for all to hear, giving glory to god and filling millions with wonder and awe. -- cathedrals of europe pursue dreams and unbridled ambitions.
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consider not just what we have built today but what we will endure long after we are gone. they testify to the power of ordinary people to realize extraordinary achievements when united by a grand and noble purpose. together, we must go forward with confidence, determination, and vision. we must not be timid or meek or fearful, but must boldly seize the day and embrace the moment. we have so many great leaders in this room, not only business, but nations. some are doing such a fantastic job. we worked together closely. we will draw strength from the glories of the past and will make greatness our common mission for the future. we will make our nations stronger, our countries safer, our culture richer, our world freer and more beautiful than
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ever before. we will forever be loyal to our workers, citizens, and families, the men and women who are the backbone of our economy's, the heart of our communities, and the soul of our countries. let us bring light to their lives one by one and empower them to light up the world. thank you very much. god bless you. god bless your countries and god bless america. thank you very much. [applause] tom: the president of the united schwab at theaus world economic forum, dr. schwab asking questions. dr. schwab: for your society, we discussed intensively the
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andtion of inclusiveness your politics are aiming to create better inclusiveness for the american people. i want to thank you personally for injecting optimism into our discussions. we have many problems in this world, but as you said, we need dreams, and we have all the capabilities, technology, leadership, to realize those dreams. thank you again, mr. president, for having joined us for the opening of the 50th anniversary of the world economy form. -- forum. [applause] francine: that is the president
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of the united states, donald trump, finishing his speech. a speech lasted 30 to 40 minutes. i was taking extensive notes and he touched on every point. he started by saying the economy is doing great and society is fairer. for creatingimself jobs for minorities and women. he talked about trade and promoting the middle class, and then he moved on to negative rates. that was the first laugh the president got, and then moved to trade. tom: it was a remarkably domestic speech. this is a speech we have heard from the president many times. only at the end did he expand to a more global statement, a more european statement. francine: interesting on the environmental things, he was at
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once saying they are planting more trees while taking aim at alarmists. he did not deny climate change but he did not support it, and that is a different tone from many participants in davos. tom: if you go to the republican convention in charlotte, north carolina, this president gave a speech much like he would give in charlotte about the success of the economy. the speech, as all speeches are nowadays, will be fact checked and analyzed, but only at the very end did he address more globalist thinking, only to say, look at america, we are doing great. francine: there was the comment where he took aim at the fed. i would love to be paid to borrow money, which got a laugh. he also spoke about energy security, which is interesting
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given what angela merkel is dealing with in germany. wroteo me, it was a very trump speech, which i expected. we welcome you all here at the world economic forum. let's listen to some of the president's speech. mr. trump: america is winning again like never before. just last week alone, the united states concluded two extraordinary trade deals, the agreement with china and the united states-mexico-canada agreement, the two biggest trade deals ever made. they happened to get done in the same week. things,mbers are many and it is despite the fact that the fed has raised rates too fast and lowered them too slowly. tom: the president of the united
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states earlier on china as well, we welcome you all to the world economic forum. with stephenled, the backdrop of the speech is very important because on the island of manhattan no one got out earlier in support of this president than mr. schwartzman. mr. schwartzman holding a number of fundraisers and greetings for the president. how has donald trump changed since those first fundraisers? stephen: being president of the united states is obviously a transforming situation. i think from listening to the speech, i think he is quite proud of the job that was done with thehe curve up domestic economy.
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we had only grown 1.8% for eight years, coming out of the worst recession in modern history. and so i think the speech you heard really reflects that change. we are listening now to live images from the world economic forum. let's listen in. i think the market will be fantastic. >> a trade war in europe, will you start a trade war in europe? tom: the president walking away. stephen schwarzman will be with him to get a comment. it seems the criticism with the president's stimulus was an expansion of the budget and that went to american corporate tax cuts, guys like you.
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how do you respond to that, that the stimulus the president initiated was more distributive across america? stephen: i think he was giving some statistics that weren't quite reflective of exactly what you were saying. right now, there is a lot of increase in income for lower income people. tom: he mentioned that, 5%. stephen: with inflation and the 1% zone, this is the first time in certainly the last 10 years where there has been this very substantial increase in wages and real income. francine: let's listen in. the president is kind of walking around and we are trying to listen in. big investments in
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the united states, that means jobs, economic development, and we are doing well. we have never done this well before and we will do a lot better. >> thank you very much. >> related to the business -- see value, the market value of certain on the highest we are doing one trillion trees with lots of other company -- countries, and i am a big believer in the environment. we are doing extremely well in the united states. i want the cleanest water and air and that is what we have now.
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francine: walking away from the crowd at the conference center, we are looking at pictures, hundreds of participants. we were expecting 1000 participants. we are back with stephen schwarzman of blackstone. who was that speech to, for the u.s. citizens back home or the participants? stephen: i think it was for several different constituencies. here is somebody who is having the impeachment process start with a trial today, and i think this was a speech to basically say, i think we need some perspective and let's look at what has happened under this administration. i think that is not just for domestic consumption. heardk it is meant to be in a broader context. francine: could the u.s.-china
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phase one deal have been signed 12 months ago? stephen: it would have been if it could have been, but it could not have been done. part of the issue on the trade you need twothat countries and each has its own politics. a model country in that sense. they have their hardliners and reformers, and what has happened , thathe last three years the u.s. and china have been discussing changes in trade, that it takes a while for a country that has got a very particular system like china, to basically make a decision to start changing its system that has been very successful for them. the fact that a phase one deal
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was done meant that both parts in china have come together along with the u.s. side, which had ambitions that ranged from exceptionally comprehensive to not so much so. everybody met in the middle. tom: steve schwarzman of blackstone -- blackstone. the belvedere hotel is where you came years ago for tuberculosis treatment. there is a wonderful photograph of robert louis stevenson. francine: the book, "the magic mountain." tom: to get to those photos you have to walk through the lobby and the bookstore. how are book sales? stephen: we are giving them away, a new low. tom: sounds like private equity.
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you are letting him give away books? stephen: they would not let us sell them and i wanted people to read them. it was interesting. this morning at 7:00, four or five people walked up and said, can you sign my book? bezosave tim cook or jeff read your book? stephen: it is interesting, i saw jeff before the book was published and i said, here is what i am doing, here is the theme. could you be helpful with amazon? he said, send it to me and we will take care of it. tom: i went down to the offices of linkedin the other day, and you are stuck in traffic and write as you go down 5th avenue the schwartzman library. you more than anyone in america
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know that the new technology of cook and bezos versus the old technology that you donated millions of dollars to, what is the focus of technology that you see now? ?s it a benefit to american all of this attention on the election because there are too many technological have and not many have-nots? stephen: you take your smartphone. you guys would be lost, as what i. francine: we are also lost with it. photo ofe is the track you doing a three minute mile a few years ago. you supported this president because the republicans had the vision with democrats to build the interstate highway in the 1950's. presidenthelp the
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support an interstate highway technology of america where we get all of this fixed? need,n: there is enormous and it is bipartisan. example,umer, for along with many people in congress want to make a major step forward with the administration in terms of providing money for ai. what may be more consequential, quantum in the future. the universities that are doing this advanced research, the companies who are sort of the american flagship carrier's in technology, all want more research funds to increase competitiveness. this really will end up benefiting regular people, whether it is with diagnoses of
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illnesses with much more reliability, development of drugs which could end up being half the cost as a result of it. educationthroughs in where you will be able to instruct students of all different types of backgrounds. technology has gotten some enormous benefits. francine: what is the biggest unknown for 2020 for the markets , the u.s. election, global growth, or geopolitics? stephen: it is not global growth. that will continue. the biggest risks for markets is u.s. domestic politics and the black swan effects that can happen. iraq.t had an incident in i was watching television. almost everyone was declaring world war iii starting. they all happened to be wrong,
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but if they were right, and the straits of for me is were z were closed,mu you could get from slow growth to recession. francine: it was amazing how quickly the market discounted and once there was no threat of war and quickly moved on. how do they match up? stephen: usually perfection does not last, and this has been an amazing run. you expect some type of havetment, but if we don't discontinuities event majorolitics and avoid international type of risks, geopolitical risks, i think we upl go on with variability
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and down over today's levels. tom: i have time for one more question, because i know you are going skiing. i will ask you the same question i would ask mr. rubinstein. richard edelman has come out with -- that would be the president leaving, the sirens you hear -- richard edelman has come out with the study of how capitalism is removed from america. is it time for private equity to tax treatment that has been in place over the years? stephen: i leave that one to the political people, every one of whom has their own unique solution for the ills of the world. when i would say is part of the edelman study, had to do with
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overall trust in institutions. address a real need to what is going wrong with our society, where so many people question almost every institution in society. francine: how much pressure are you feeling? much pressure are you feeling from investors to put cash to use? stephen: we don't have that kind of pressure. francine: they don't want you to go in now? stephen: we invest a lot of money over the years. when prices are high, you try and invest less. when they are low, you try and invest more. we sell a lot of things when prices are high. we try and find things, it is harder. tom: are you buying or selling now? the dow 30,000 watch. we have to go. are you buying or selling?
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stephen: we do both. tom: get off the stage, stephen schwarzman. unplug him and throw him out. what is he, an economist? steve schwarzman, go sell a book. what are we doing? francine: we have loads coming up, loads of newsmakers, coverage of the senate impeachment trial. when i am looking forward to is nadella inm satya conversation with john mickelthwait, and a number of emerging-market governors in the markets, we will talk about things that people worry about. inflation, inflation. the micro trough chief -- microsoft chief executive. tom: we are doing both. ♪
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>> do you worry about the world fitting into two internet's, two systems? we see that with huawei. >> i do worry about that, but we need to develop more sophistication. chinaare big companies in that have already in some sense developed outside of what we have in the rest of the world, so to some degree the separations already existed and maybe will get amplified into the future. perhaps more than any other time, we need more global -- take cybersecurity. it is not like you can truly isolate yourself.
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♪ trump: this is not a time for pessimism. this is a time for optimism. fear and doubt is not a good thought process because this is a time for tremendous hope and joy and optimism and action. but to embrace the possibilities of tomorrow, we must reject the perennial prophets of doom and their predictions of the apocalypse. states are friends and there is a deep foundation over at least 70 years of friendship, cultural exchange, research exchange. we should never forget about that i know on one side of the table, i am sitting on the other side where the united states is
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sitting too, but we have issues. francine: that was president trump talking about climate change a little bit. it was a long speech, 30, 40 minutes, and he spoke about notre dame in paris and announced they will plant trees. he also said alarmists on climate change should be more careful. yesterday we spoke to ursula von der leyen and she was talking about how the u.s. and europe are having a difficult relationship but will always be friends and allies. adair turner, we want to talk about climate change, but we also found out you traveled from london to davos by train. is that because of climate change? adair: yes. i will be here basically talking about climate change. i fly a lot, to india and china.
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year infive weeks a china talking to them about climate change. i feel there is a bit of an irony about me getting a big carbon footprint from flying while talking about climate change, and one thing i can do to offset that is when the available, i will try to have a lower carbon footprint. i encourage people to get on the train from london to davos. you will have 10 completely usable hours. francine: do chief executives mean business when they want to tackle climate change? adair: i think we have seen a major change and it is the last two or three years. a large number of businesses are convinced personally, convinced by their children actually, that climate change is important, often convinced by their employees. i hear ceos saying the biggest
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thing that has changed us around is realizing our young employees do not want to work for a company that does not take climate change seriously. for a variety of reasons, companies are coming around and they are realizing there are opportunities and building a zero carbon economy. bybelieve we can get that 2050 and it will be far more attractive than the one we have at the moment. there is such a global leader on climate change, are we at a tipping point? is this a davos where there is a boon to global warming because we are seeing australia, the heatwave that killed hundreds if not thousands in continental europe, and air pollution in india, is it a tipping point or another year along the past? adair: i hope it is a tipping
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point because if there is not a tipping point, we may go through tipping points and the climate itself. once the world rolls to a certain degree, we could produce a melting of hydrates in the arctic. we could release huge amounts of make a which would higher warming. it is important to have this attitude. tom: we have lord turner, lord brown, lord stern. britain is leading on this. are you frustrated there is not a lord and america leading on this, that it is uniquely a british initiative? adair: being a lord is uniquely a british initiative, but on climate change there are leaders in the u.s. they have tended to be at state and company level rather than federal level.
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as i spent time in india and china, people are taking the issue very seriously. one of the most important things is whether china commits to being zero carbon by 2050, which it should and can achieve. likeine: how can a country india and other emerging market do that, lower their carbon footprint and grow gdp? adair: they can grow gdp. china 2050,did, china can meet all of its economic ambitions -- francine: but india? adair: india can as well. ze indianecarboni electricity? 40% to 50% of their electricity could be green, and we worked that out precisely. is there not land to put the
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panels? yes. how much will it cost? no more than the call fire powered plants. blockage to the affect what seems to be a rational research initiative? adair: sometimes it is lobbying or people who don't believe it. the primary problem is an issue of speed. orm confident that by 2070 2080 the world will have a zero carbon economy based on renewables and deep electrification. we will get there technologically. leftse we have let -- late, we have to get it done by 2050. the challenge of policy is to accelerate something that will happen. we have to build wind and solar at an annual pace of three to four times the current pace in order to get there fast enough to avoid a serious issue.
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francine: do we not need regulation or harmonization? we do not know how to price. adair: the issue of harmonization is important and we are working closely with the steel industry. i have been meeting with the biggest chief executive of the steel industry and they have made a commitment to be a zero carbon steel producer by 2050, but they can only do that if there is a carbon price, and if there is a carbon price in europe and not the rest of the world, they will be crucified, so we have to get a global agreement or think about these ideas of going ahead in one region and having carbon-based tariffs against the rest of the world. we cannot exclude that. ofncine: is there a piece technology we do not have today that will be a game changer? adair: we do not know.
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there are a whole series of technologies developing. batteries are coming down in price. i would watch hydrogen. the cost of electro lysing hydrogen could fall at the same sort of pace that we have seen with batteries. broadly speaking, we don't need to assume an entire new technology that we don't at present know what it is. if we take the technologies we have got at the moment, drive them to scale and drive their cost down, we can achieve this. if we get a whole new technology we have not thought of, that will be better. withadair turner with us the institute of new economic thinking. with all the years here, there has been a stunningly new focus on climate warning this year. your thoughts on a first active day, to say the least. francine: it was pretty
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fruitful, pretty exciting. coming up we hear from greta thornburg and i wonder if she will address some of the things president trump said. we are planting more trees but it is not only about that. tom: we have more conversations coming up, including lawrence kudlow. please stay with us from davos. this is bloomberg. ♪
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♪ this is bloomberg "surveillance." we are seeing red in european and u.s. futures. ,ollowing the session in asia the overwhelming concern is the spread of a deadly violence -- virus. luxury goods or dragging this down with the potential impact to hong kong as well as traveling. after surprise data for u.k. jobs, stronger than many had expected. the cable rate up 4/10 of 1%.
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we are seeing ubs dragging down the index. it had some numbers that missed and had to update its midterm guidance. those numbers have dropped the most since 2016. we will be speaking to u.s. economic council director larry kudlow this is bloomberg. -- larry kudlow. this is bloomberg. ♪
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switzerland,os, this is "bloomberg surveillance ," live at the world economic forum. alongside tom, i'm jonathan ferro. what have we got coming up? shifting over the years, we had dr. bremmer earlier and a speech by the president of the united states. we will have some of that here. to the line above the guests forward on american banking.


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