tv Bloomberg Daybreak Europe Bloomberg May 28, 2020 1:00am-2:00am EDT
chance of a vaccine by year-end. u.k. tohnson asked the move on from around over his top a. overiding requirements landing spots at key hubs. welcome to "daybreak: europe." the tensions between the u.s. and china continue and we have interesting commentary from fed officials, talking about yield curve control. that's the backdrop in turn of the fed's. seeing a fair amount of green on the screen, overnight also digesting the news of south korea cutting its right to a record low and cutting its gdp forecast. u.s. futures have given up some of the gains from earlier. you're seeing some negative come through on nasdaq futures on the report that president trump is preparing to sign an executive order that could threaten to penalize facebook, google, and
twitter for the way they moderate content on their site. quite a bit higher on european futures after the plan coming through from the e.u. to the tune of 2.6 trillion dollars, a radical plan. the tenure yield is steady and we saw that reaction in the euro yesterday, hitting the highest since april 1, extending gains today in terms of euro-dollar. elsewhere the dollar gave up some gains from yesterday. we saw some dollar strength after mike pompeo and yesterday session. let's get back to the u.s.-china tensions. to approve thed resolution before the national people's congress today. the premier will give his update after the briefing. in hong kong, police arrested
more than 360 people. tom mackenzie has been following the latest on the national people's congress. great to have you with us, thanks for joining us. how has china reacted to the u.s. decision? tom: this is a potentially major moment because for the last couple of decades, since 1992, the u.s. has managed to carve out a special trading status for hong kong. that was contingent on that city autonomous, having a high degree of autonomy. as you mentioned, mike pompeo, the secretary of state in the u.s. saying that no longer exists. they say hong kong does not have the autonomy, so that changes the dynamic. china has responded, putting out a statement today saying this is an internal matter, saying the
security law that prompted the reaction from the secretary of state from the u.s. is aimed at curtailing acts of terrorism in the city and will not impact the autonomy of hong kong and not impact the freedoms of the people of hong kong. also there's the potential to change the trade relationship with hong kong, but that would have broad economic consequences for both the u.s. and china and the people of hong kong. so that is something the administration is weighing very carefully. the relationship is going from bad to worse. long,is prepared for a drawnout battle with the u.s.. exactly. the u.s. house is also passed so-called bill sanctioning chinese officials. tell us more about that and if respecting the mpc to address the issue today. this is a bill,
that received backing from both senators and house of representatives from the republican and democratic side. it will now go to president trump's desk for him to sign off on. is talk about human rights abuses were more than a million muslims have been incarcerated in detention camps. according to the u.s. and the united nations, china says it is educational facilities and that the u.s. is interfering in its internal affairs. we will see if there's any further response from china. it has been a sensitive issue because it is a border region with china so it speaks to the territorial integrity of the country. a briefing will give at around 4:00 p.m. local time. in the next few hours after the signing off on the bill
regarding security over hong kong. it may address the mounting tensions in the u.s.. whether he addresses that bill is unlikely. conflictother point of between u.s. and china, huawei technologies cfo failed to persuade a canadian judge to end extradition proceedings. a lot for us to digest. thank you so much, tom mackenzie, great to see you and have you with us today. let's get to the first word news. the number coronavirus tests in the u.s. has reached a grim milestone of 100,000. book pollatest beige says the pandemic has damage the u.s. economy. presidentrk fed predicts a pickup in the second half of the year.
think we are in a good place in terms of maybe we are near the bottom in terms of the economic downturn and hopefully will see improvement in coming months. i expect to see a significant rebound in the second half of this year. isra: the bank of korea mulling using unconventional policy tools to promote growth, forecasting the first contraction since the asian financial crisis. the decision to cut key rates was unanimous. remarks from the central bank suggests it will be reluctant to cut any further. russia and saudi arabia have agreed to coordinate on the opec-plus deal ahead of a crucial meeting to discuss it further. russian president vladimir putin and the saudi crown prince discuss the market situation in a phone call as russia seems to be determined to start easing its output in july. global news, 24 hours a day, on air and on quicktake by bloomberg,
nejra: this is bloomberg "daybreak: europe." ands look at the risk radar even with increasing tensions between the u.s. and china, we are seeing green on the screen in asia. u.s. futures have given up some of the gains from earlier. reports of an executive order from president trump to tech companies. risk sentiment coming through on the e.u. recovery plan. tenure yield a steady, little
bit of a retreat in the yen and the dollar in line with the risk sentiment today. u.s. secretary of state mike pompeo has told congress that hong kong no longer merit special treatment. the declaration has major implications and is likely to anger beijing. pompeo said that no reasonable person can assert today that hong kong may take a high degree of autonomy from china. it follows beijing's plan to impose a controversial new security law on the territory. joining us is a find manager, great to have you on the show. we have seen equity markets for the most part shrug off the increasing tensions between the u.s. and china. you are quite cautious on global equities already. does this issue add to your caution or make you want to change your asset allocation in any way? >> we are cautious on equities
and we have been for a while, despite the fact that we have increased our exposure since the march declines. were not considering the risk being imposed from the u.s.-china trade tensions. it's more revenue focus rather than trade focus. we think that is why the market may be ignoring it. however, we think the impact , thebe more lasting channels will have a much broader impact. at the moment it seems to not be a huge risk. nejra: and it is interesting, i think i agree with you to some extent, to a large extent,
really. the market is taken into account at the moment some of the risks that could materialize. how bad could this get, in your view? you said it could be more long-lasting. do you expect that more tariffs could be put in place, that we see a reemergence of the trade war that preoccupied markets so much -- in 2018 and 2019? relatedis less trade and more security and geopolitical related. in the case of the u.s., it is in correction and putting pressure on capital allocations. the special trading relationship with hong kong is a big risk. we think that both parties are exposed, both the u.s. and hong kong.
and if the u.s. as a trade surplus with hong kong, they also have a lot to lose in this. we think will see a lot less time.tariffs this waya: does that change the you would view certain countries or regions around the world in terms of equity markets? >> absolutely. we think that technology has technologyell, companies have performed very strongly and have led the market higher. types of pressure likely to see with regard to u.s. and china trade exposes more tech companies over the next few months. on the u.s. side, there will be with regard to the influence china has on these
companies. and there could be potential changes to the business model. with regard to the access technology companies have. ,ith regard to the tech sector it is exposed. pressure is facing the and hong kong is likely to remain under pressure over the next few months. it might impact asia's outlook with the em. our guest stays with us for the hour. coming up on the show, the beige book report finds the u.s. economy was severely hurt by the virus. more on that next in our interview with john williams, this is bloomberg. ♪
nejra: this is bloomberg "daybreak: europe." the coronavirus deeply damage the u.s. economy was steep job losses and business closures. the fed is also taking heart about targeting specific deals on treasury securities as a way of assuring borrowing costs according to the new york fed president, john williams. take a listen. >> we are starting very carefully and will be discussing as a group, i don't have anything i can say about what will or will not happen. my view is this, the focus is always on just how do we best use the tools that we have. whether our communications or guidance and whether it's a balance sheet or other actions we take to achieve our goals. the economy isow likely to evolve.
right now there's just a lot of uncertainty about that. we are kind of in a good place in terms of maybe near the bottom in terms of the economic downturn. we hope we can start seeing improvement in the coming months. i expect to see a significant rebound in the second half of this year. the answer to your question is what is the right policy response and action? on how theitically economy is performing right now and in coming months. right now it is still an unclear picture. were getting a lot better information over time. what kind of rebound and recovery will we see? >> even though it's unclear going forward, have you imagined what it's like on the others? we came out of the great financial crisis, potential growth was lower, around 2% or little bit less. what do you think potential
growth will be when we come out of this? asking,o follow up by in the sense that you're going to have trillions of dollars at zero to low interest rates that would be crippling of rates went up, especially to the u.s. treasury. are you going to be stuck keeping rates low even if you don't want to, for a very long time? >> it's hard enough to forecast where the economy is going to be going over the next several months. forecasting what potential output will be in the next several years is even harder. sure thatwant to make businesses that exist today are able to get through this period, and we don't have lasting damage to the economy. the way i view it is, the policies and actions congress has been taking or to try to not
only minimize the spillovers from the pandemic on the economy, but the longer-term damage to the economy. the second question, the treasury obviously is issuing an , andous amount of debt there is also in ormiston man globally for u.s. treasury securities, especially given a lot of the movement away from riskier assets. we have not seen any signs treasuryfor u.s. securities, the markets have had to absorb that increase in supplies very effectively. this is not a situation where the federal reserve is constrained are limited in what we are doing because of what happens in terms of the issuance of debt securities. >> one quick follow-up to what you said about the trough
opening up again, do you think barring a second wave of the virus that we have seen? >> it's hard to say, because the data is incomplete. were getting an employment report from may to give a bigger datare and will get more over the next few weeks and months. now, on what we are seeing i think we are pretty close. maybe may or june will be the low point. let's not forget, this is an extreme decline in economic activity and an enormous hardship for people in this country. even if are starting to see stabilization there in terms of the economy, maybe a little bit of pickup, we are still in a very difficult situation. that's new york fed president john womb speaking exclusively to bloomberg. the watch out for the latest release of weekly jobless claims
and the second week of gdp to see if the economy suffered a deeper hit in the first quarter than first reported. you say that bonds are a less affected hedge in your portfolio right now. does the prospect of yield curve control in the u.s. give you more conviction on that view as regards treasuries? you can control to some extent how far treasury you'll can rise. we do think the fed will start itimplement control and could lead to a steeping of the yield curve. as though a gentle steepening of the yield curve would be quite
good for financials. we think that treasuries are likely to stay in the range. that's really our view. i think they were a fantastic hedge earlier in the year, right now, there's not much more that could be effective. nejra: if you look at the volatility through april and may, it's been quite surprisingly muted, looking at the move index. we've seen a move of something like 20 basis points either way on the tenure yield. got investment grade and high yields in the u.s.? giventhink right now where financial markets are, it's an attractive asset. i think there are still a lot of
major concerns around solvency and high yield is exposed. we preferred the ingressive -- investment grade earlier. it's to follow what the fed is doing. don't fight the federal reserve, and the federal reserve is buying and has expanded their balance sheet to include these assets, and we think that's a bid for investment grade. our guest stays with us, a lot more to discuss. reopening.cautious the disney ceo wants to take a slow approach to reopening theme parks. more on that next. we'll carry on bringing you updates on the markets, which are looking pretty risk on
nejra: good morning from london, i'm nejra cehic. this is bloomberg "daybreak: europe." the u.s. says hong kong is no longer autonomous from china. new securityass legislation today, but chancellor merkel talks about more cooperation from beijing. the united states reaches 100,000 rotavirus deaths. anthony found she sees a good chance for vaccine by year-end. boris johnson se u.k. to move on from around over his top aide.
and a 9 billion euros german rescue requirement over lending plots at key hubs. it sets up a showdown. welcome to "daybreak: europe." tensions area still alive and well. something the markets are digesting overnight as well as a rate cut from the bank of korea. we also have reports a president trump is thinking about an executive order to penalize tech companies, meaning nasdaq futures have taken a little bit of a hit. asia and s&p features in the green. of $2.6 trillion. will it go through? that is the question, but quite a big breakthrough came through yesterday. it does extend some of those gains, 10-year treasury yield's edges up slightly. quite of picture of risk on across assets and the dollar
almost given up its gains from yesterday on a broad basis. oil extending declines, but is rather than the progress sentiment. the data showing an increase in stockpiles. a grim milestone as the united states passes 100,000 deaths from coronavirus. global cases have top 5.6 million with over 355,000 desk. south korea reported the most cases and seven weeks following -- following an outbreak at a distribution center. disney has announced plans to reopen its theme parks in the united states. andceo spoke to emily chang said disney is planning to take a slower and more cautious approach. take a listen. we would notsaid open up again until we thought we could do so responsibly. we have some learnings from shanghai and our own disney springs retail and dining area
that reopened up just a week ago. we have been able to make some learnings in terms of how you keep that social distancing. that is the key for us, keeping social distancing whether in restaurants, on main street or in attractions. we are confident we can do that responsibly. emily: inversely is planning to open up june 5. why a month later? bob: we feel this is the right time for us in july. we have a different situation than universal because we are much bigger. we have a much more complex business. we have a different labor situation. at the same time, we will be implementing a new reservation system for our guests. it will take some time to take the millions of reservations that we've already got on the books and switch it over to new reservation system. so we think july is the right time for us. shanghaiu been open in
since may 11. our people actually showing up with fevers and getting turned away? have you gotten to that 30% capacity yet, and when do you plan to go beyond that? bob: everything is going extremely well at shanghai. i must complement are cast and the guest did -- for their cooperation. it takes the chemistry between both groups to help the whole thing work with social distancing. for us, the learning is that we stuck to our limitations that we placed on ourselves, and it has worked extremely well. we are up to about 20,000 guests per day and we are maintaining the social distancing guidelines that the government has placed upon us. we believe that as though social distancing guidelines are relaxed or somehow change, we will be able to actually grow please evenreally more guests than we can today.
they: i know you've gotten green light to open downtown disney in california. what about hong kong, tokyo, paris, and disney itself? have no announcement we are ready to make on most other parts. they are all in different situations. in terms of the progress of covid-19, and different situations in terms of where the inernment feels they are at providing some level of assurances that it's going to be responsible to open up. we have to take our cues from each local government in each place. we like to say at disney that we are really just a citizen of the environment that we operate in, and we want to be a good citizen. so we follow the lead of the local government and we overlay what we believe is good common sense from a disney standpoint
and that the terms are on the table. you make long-term strategic plans, and as you look at the world, post-pandemic, has it change your emphasis, you have a wonderful group of assets but many of them are based on people getting together, sporting events, movie theaters, and cruise ships. bob: some of the warranted fears people have about getting together in big groups will eventually dissipate. but it will dissipate on the function of trust. there's not many companies in the world that are trusted as well as the walt disney company, but it's a trust that we will not in any way violate. disney opens up a little later than others with not as many people inside our parks. we do that on purpose because we want to build that trust in this new environment that is the new normal, and then take it from there.
baby steps every step of the way. nejra: that was the disney ceo speaking to emily chang. and is it still worth betting on equities in the long run? despite the coronavirus causing chaos in global stocks this year and more trouble potentially lying ahead. investor sentiment has turned abruptly in favor of down stocks, something investors fail to foresee. to metrics like earnings which reaches 30 year high among money managers in a bank of america survey this month. tech and interbank that energy companies, value stocks, and about-face generally credited to further optimism on the economy. not everyone is so positive. the goldman sachs president has warned the global economy could be in for a bumpy ride, especially if government starts to pull back on stimulus
programs. i've been having this conversation all week about the rotation that started to happen in the preference am are showing to cyclical for value and small caps over large caps in the u.s. which speaks to investors looking ahead to the recovery from the pandemic in the second half of the year. are you a little bit more cautious than some of these rotations would suggest? overall equity it'st we are cautious, something we waited for for a while. i think what we need to think about is that we have a shorter timeframe for markets right now. ithave a situation where , and now we well
are moving into phase two. now it is the reopening beneficiaries that will take center stage. companiesthe smaller that have increased in demand at a very low level. they are manufacturing, it should start to outperform. we are seeing a little bit of response in the data and it's happening very slowly. cautious.o be as we speak, the market appears overbought. we talked about u.s.-china trade
tensions and we think it will be a choppy session. it's a good environment to invest. you have to be careful and avoid the stranded assets. there are companies that will not survive this, and that's what we have to avoid. nejra: it's interesting that you say you are in favor of this rotation. i wonder what your timeframe is on that, and whether you view on that is more technical. at the same time were talking earlier about how you're facing a portfolio construction challenge in the sense that you think bonds are an effective hedge, so your ability to balance risk and at equities in a risk control manner is reduced thewhat, and that explains cautious view on equities overall, favoring quality within equities.
so while you are in favor of this rotation, he think it has legs to run. a three-month horizon. what is your take on the timing of that? remi: i think this recovery and reopening is going to provide more pent-up demand, but ultimately the post pandemic very is still a world of low risk inflation in our view. the companies that can grow more strategic quality companies. in the medium-term, as the market start reopening, we think there is a case for reopening , however to outperform short it may be that they can --
between now and the next three months, there's a case against cyclical rotation. a lot of these companies may benefit from the recovery , wevity, but the reality is don't know how much activity can recover. nejra: very interesting stuff. let's get to the first word news. longer. says it can no -- a move that could trigger sanctions and have far-reaching consequences. it comes a week after beijing announced it will pass national security legislation curtailing the freedom of hong kong citizens. the u.s. house has voted to authorize sanctions against chinese officials for human rights abuses.
the issues around a muslim minority group in the west of the country comes as the u.s. ratchets up pressure on beijing. china has warned of reprisals for the sanctions. prime minister boris johnson is asking the u.k. to move on from the controversy surrounding his top advisor. johnson says he is sorry for the pain anguish of the lockdown but stood by dominic cummings. he has faced public anger over his decision to travel 260 miles to seek childcare support while the country was in lockdown. i'm not frankly, certain right now that an inquiry into that matter is a very good use of official time. working flat out on coronavirus. global news, 24 hours a day, on air and on quicktake by bloomberg, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. the european union unveiled an unprecedented stimulus plan to
tackle the worst recession in living memory. spending iscovery anchored by 750 billion euros of joint debt issuance. plan has already started in some markets and might restore a sense of unity to a block under severe strain. our guest is still with us. shock and all are some of the this,of heard describing but it still needs to be approved. is not completely a done deal. does this make you more positive on european assets for the moment? surprise, it's positive for european assets. it will be skewed toward areas most affected by the virus. i think it is positive for
europe and for european assets. i think it provides the potential to even consider growth in europe. so i think it is positive. but as you say, there still a lot of details, the negotiations will be tough and i think there withbe a lot of pushback what kind of savings will need to be made elsewhere. .e should not get too excited but the sentiment is positive, that europe is considering this is very positive. view, you say the
outlook for the euro remains weak. would your view on that change at all given what we've heard on the fiscal front but also with the prospect of potentially an expansion of tech from the ecb in june? now, thisink that for news with regard to the recovery and has shifted quite a bit were seeing that in the last trading session. currencies,other [indiscernible] then news is positive for the year-end. the reality is it will take a while for the negotiations to get through.
i think in the medium-term, were facing a number of challenges. and rallying in the euro to reposition with the short-term case for the euro to appreciate based on the news. the reality is, it is still weaker. nejra: great stuff, thank you so much for joining us. coming up, lufthansa raises the stakes in a tug-of-war with the european union, holding off on a german rescue. we'll bring you all the details, next. this is bloomberg. ♪
nejra: this is bloomberg "daybreak: europe." let's get a look at the wrist radar. to help with u.s.-china tensions, but s&p futures higher, nasdaq futures lower over reports donald trump could make an executive order to penalize tech companies. tenure yield edges higher, the yuan retreats. all that speaks to risk on, but oil extending declines. boardnsa supervisory basis takes in a tug-of-war with the european union, holding off on excepting the german rescue package due to antitrust demands. in benedict from berlin. update us on what happens now. >> that's a very good question. normally this should have been a form around see that the supervisory board calls a
shareholder meeting, which then votes. [indiscernible] they also have to give something up, and crucially that is landing slots in munich and frankford. permission to take off and land with your airport at least in crucial airports. the european commission wants this to happen because they want to foster competition. they're saying you're getting a lot of money and that skews the playing field, therefore you need to give something up. it's around the number of slots and the duration for which they need to be given up. nejra: we appreciate your time there from berlin. coming up, tragic milestone, a
nejra: this is bloomberg "daybreak: europe." an update on coronavirus around the world. the u.s. did pass that grim milestone with over 100,000 deaths from the disease. 5000 deaths globally. south korea reported the most cases and seven weeks following an outbreak in a distribution center. york.test from new tragic news in the u.s.. what does this mean as states continue reopening? news,redibly tragic 100,000 deaths, the largest tally in the world. a project over the weekend of the new york times was quite
moving, which gave information be sent -- behind some of the people that lost their lives so you get an aspect of the human toll. what it means for individual states is interesting. the out rake is expected to peak differently in each state, which makes it difficult for the united states. research at the university of washington metrics and evaluation shows that new york, the hardest hit region, the model suggests the number of deaths has peaked in new york. when you look at texas, alabama, and florida, potentially it can mean they have yet to peak. is something we need to watch in the united states. it is a complete challenge for the entire world. how do you grapple with the virus and at the same time there is no vaccine insight. yesterdayund she saying potentially by the end of the year we could see one. nejra: and in the meantime, investors trying to deal with the fallout from the virus.
what readjustments are underway? >> carl icahn held onto hertz for six years as a top shareholder for that company, and what a loss it was when he said goodbye, one point six booming dollars. warrenkman giving up on buffett and blackstone. part of it, he's just saying it's not worth owning work sure if berkshire is not going to spend its massive cash pile of $100 billion on stock purchases and they could put that money elsewhere. nejra: thank is so much, great to have you with us. coming up later, speak with the global ceo at credit suisse. that's it for bloomberg "daybreak: europe." the european open is up next. it looks like european equities could open up powerfully in the green, radical plan from the
>> good morning. welcome to "bloomberg markets: european open." i'm anna edwards, live from london, alongside matt miller. recovery is all that matters. futures trend higher as reopening economies in europe bumper stingless control proposals. the narrative. the cash trade is less than an hour away. the u.s. says hong kong has lost its autonomy from beijing.