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tv   Bloomberg Markets Americas  Bloomberg  December 16, 2020 10:00am-11:00am EST

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>> 3:00 p.m. in london and 10:00 p.m. in new york. johnsondon, i am guy alix steel, is in new york. i wonder what gets a bigger market reaction today, a deal done in washington in stimulus or a move from the threat -- from the fed. alix: and if there is a move from d.c. before the fed does that make the press conference better or worse? the markets have taken a total neutral look, but the real action is in the bond market in europe. in the u.s., the 210 curve is the speak -- steepest it has been at 80 basis points. the bloomberg dollar index continues to -- to grind you lower. whenll break that down that comes out in europe. one thing to pay attention to, bitcoin over 20,000. is it a safe haven or will it be
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risk on? it is hardo yat. these assets will be tracking what is happening in d.c. because the senate session is waiting to open and we are waiting to hear from mitch mcconnell. joining us now is billy, the bloomberg congressional reporter. the writers became a lot more positive, where are we at? billy: we are said to be closer to a deal, and a deal today could allow votes tonight on what some say as a $1.4 trillion bill. it is scaled-back from all of the numbers from this summer. -- but, it seems to be real and imminent. impacts,erms of the what is it likely to have, what does this mean for average americans? american, the average progressives are demanding and includes any provision that would be a direct payment to
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individuals. we do not know how much that would be. bernie sanders, the vermont senator, wants $1200 per person check, and whether progression desk grip -- progressives hold out their votes it remains to play out. generally, the original demands for one trillion in state and local aid seem to not be part of the pot. and, and much lesser amounts aboutan will be included, $160 billion. guy: we will see what progress we will make today. billy house, updating us on stimulus. let us go to monetary policy. the fed will release its latest decision at the last of the year, 2:00 p.m. new york time. the central bank is sure to keep rates at zero, but the market is looking for details and changes to its asset purchase program.
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mike mckee, what are we looking for? mike: we are looking for a lot and getting it. as the choices are basically three according to people on trading desks. one is that they can change their forward guidance and tie their rate moves to unemployment and prices to emphasize lower for longer. they can buy more bonds or change the weighted average maturity of their balance sheet per folio and buy longer maturity funds or sell short i long as they did. the yield term -- curve has steepened and rates have risen, but it is a 10 year note yield going to affect the economy? it is relatively cheap. financialo fed's conditions index out this morning is near a record low. mortgage rates are near a record low. it is not really a problem for the economy, so does the fed need to do anything? -- thees would be to
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consensus would be to change the payments. currentld be over the continuation of buying over the next few months. this is economic and plot a 3.7%ts and you can see decline for 2020. if they raise that all, it might be some news. they might be cutting it given the retail sales number. .1% insales are down november. the control group goes down half a percent. we saw clothing stores down 6.8 percent, and that is a real problem in the holiday season, and they also said that online sales were just up .2%, which is hard to believe. we should mention u.s. designated switzerland and -- the u.s. designated switzerland and vietnam currency manipulators. switzerland meets the criteria,
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but they say they will keep intervening in markets and it is not in an effort to gain trade advantage, so that will play out in the background. a very busy day. we have a blizzard coming. alix: he likes to come -- to talk about whether. thank you a lot. very nap, now is ironsides managing partner. knapp.arry if we get something and what happens to yields, at what point does this build pressure to act on those higher yields? they: i do not think that will feel any pressure to act on were toields, unless we see a significant move in the real rate components. so, let us presume with 10 year inflation breakeven that 193, the fed would be very happy if
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those went to 2.25%, market implied expert -- expectations were through their 2% target. they would be patting themselves on the back. i think they would be fine with another 30 or 40 basis points as long as they were driven by the inflation component, or driven by a move higher at this point, and that would elicit a response from the fed. i also think if there is going to be a fiscal stimulus deal, and that is our forecast since the election result and it became clear it would be more of a divided government. i saw in the democratic's party interest to do a deal. as soon there was going to be a deal that takes heat off of the fed for adding additional accommodation. i would assume that if they were to add any accommodation, it would only at this point be adding forward guidance to their kiwi purchases. the market was -- there qe
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purchases. the market was somewhat disappointed in september and i cannot imagine they would want to stretch the maturity from six to 12 years. the curve is not that steep and rates are not that high. the reason that rates are rising is because the inflation component is going up and they want that to happen. i think we are a ways away from them needing to do anything significant. guy: let us talk about what is happening right now. mitch mcconnell is on the senate floor and there is a live shot of mitch mcconnell speaking. he said that "major headway has been made on a relief package." we will get more details as he continues to talk. let us talk about the impact that this will have on the u.s. economy. we saw a retail sales numbers quite weak, and the number previously revised lower. how quickly will this feed through the economy and how big an impact will it have?
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barry: a couple of comments come to mind. one is that i heartily endorse the call -- the comments of michelle meyer on john's show when she was discussing the distortion of seasonal adjustment factors. if you look at the data on a year end basis, it looks quite robust. it slowed a little bit and there has been no doubt that there is a bit of deceleration, but i think on balance things are still improving. really think the way to gauge the impact of additional stimulus checks, direct payment as you guys have been phasing them, is to look back at the studies on the direct checks earlier this year. less than 20% went into consumption. went into savings, and 40% went to pay down debt. i suppose you should be buying
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capital one on this or large banks thinking that most of this money will go to pay down debt, not drive consumption. i think consumption will be driven more by reduced, nonpharmaceutical interventions, which is a fancy way of saying lockdowns. that is the issue at hand. local government responses to the surge in the virus, and it looks to me like the virus has peaked and is coming back down and most of the country before this third wave started. alix: i want to update you. mitch mcconnell saying that they are working on a relief plan that could pass both chambers. this highlighted was the extreme divide between mainstream and wall street, which has been a theme for years, in particular right now you have the savings rate still high, and people are starting to believe -- bleeds down their checking account and we have moratorium coming to an end at
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the end of the year. directot know about payments but financial conditions are super easy. what is the best kind of portfolio? well, listen, that sort of leads into another broader context which is what is 2021 going to look like? and there is no doubt that we are going to go through a pretty significant recovery, and lockdowns are going to start to end, and i have been in the camp that you should be overweight cyclical relative to technology since august, and i think that will be the case. not just through 2021, but likely through a good part of the business cycle. i think the benefits of digitalization will include more cyclical companies. -wallr the main street
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street divide, i do not think there is one. i think that is a function of the market pulling forward what is likely to be the economic outcome, and it should be a robust year. guy: a really robust year. let us take a step back and elude back to a question that alix asked earlier on. the incredible market rally we saw is premised on the idea that rates will stay low, and monetary policy will bet for a very long time. if next year is a very robust year, how high are the chances that we get to a point with inflation that the market starts to price in a change of policy from the fed? when do you see that happening because so many investors see that as a pivotal moment in terms of the way they construct their portfolios. well, i think it is highly likely, and i think it could come as soon as the second
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quarter, certainly by midyear. i do not think you should construct your portfolios based upon that, but every business cycle since world war ii has had monetary policy normalization shock and comes at the point where the fed gains enough confidence that the strength of the recovery that they can start normalizing monetary policy. last cycle we had eight of them. the vast majority were related to these large-scale or asset purchase programs or qe. what is very likely what we have on next year, for example, the fed is starting to cripple the agency mortgage-backed security markets and they will have to shift the mix from mortgage backed securities and reduce their purchases of those and add to the treasury. even that could cause one of those policy normalization related shocks. those gain huge focus in the bond market, most equity
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investors know that those do not mark the end of the business cycle, and the typical eight to 10% drawdown in equities associated with that you are supposed to buy it. we are early in the business cycle and those have never marked the end of the cycle or a bull market associated with the cycle. rallid see if the market 7%fairly sharply up five to that you might want to reduce some risk in anticipation of one of those pullbacks, benefit occurs and you are supposed to buy that. how much of this cycle has been priced and by being front run from march until now. we have got to leave it there, but we will keep this conversation going all day. barry knapp. do not forget, you want to tune in later on and the fed decides at 2:00 p.m. new york and 7:00 p.m. london. the headlinesecap
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from mitch mcconnell speaking on the senate floor. he says they are working on a relief plan that can pass both chambers and there is major headway. there is a headline but i am not sure if it is attributed to mitch mcconnell. liability is not including -- included in the relief bill, but it is spinning off the difficult parts of the bill. we will monitor those as they come across. this bloomberg. ♪
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alix: it is the holidays so it is bonus season. barclays likely to boost its bonus for 10% to balance record performance within certain
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long-term effects of covid-19. surge inabout a 52% training revenue over corporate and investment banks but bonuses will be on par with last year and they are trying to thread the meal between the wall street and main street conversation. the bank ofely, and england urging banks in the u.k. to be cautious on it comes to renumeration. it seems that barclays is trying to thread the needle. there is a second headline that sayingth this up 10% that this is a conversation happening now with the trading floor, basically trying to temper pay expectations. thatis an expectation everybody is going through right now. as you say, the numbers look good, but there are all kinds of other factors that need to go into play, and certainly want the bank of england is saying is probably being taken on board. we will talk more about that a
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little bit later on. the cost of vaccinating americans is another factor we will talk about. continuing to iron out details of another covid release -- relief package. the cost of mass vaccinations is growing. ♪
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alix: live from new york, i am alix steel. this is bloomberg markets. this is a live shot from the senate floor. mitch mcconnell saying that he is making headway on a relief package. issues --ntentions contentious issues are sidelined for now, and virus cases are surging and the cost of vaccinating is joining us -- is growing. ,oining us is claire hannan executive director of the association of immunization managers. it is good to talk to you.
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i am new york state, how much will it cost to vaccinate the whole state? it is probably in the millions. what we have estimated for the entire campaign is over $8 billion. and, states have only received a few million dollars, about 200 million and are receiving another $140 million this week, so i am sure new york state does not have exactly what they need. we are hopeful that there will be additional funding. there is $6 billion in the current package being debated today that you just spoke about. we think that is a great down payment and we think there will be more. but, it is good to get additional funding, and getting that congressional package passed and getting that funding out to states is needed, it is dire right now. guy: if the money is not there,
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is that going to slow the rollout of the vaccine down, or will states find money elsewhere? claire: states are making difficult choices right now, and i think we will not see any impact on what is happening in phase onea vaccinating health care workers. i think my concern would be further down the road when we get more supply and we need to branch out to all americans, we need to have tens of thousands of providers enrolled, trained, and ready to go and we need public health to be in a position where vaccinate or's are able to set up clinics with the supplies and everything they need. we will not see an impact just now, states are doing everything they can to make sure this rolls out smoothly, but down the road we will definitely need additional funding to make that work efficiently and quickly. alix: what is the most expensive part? claire: the stabbing, really.
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states and local public health agencies are not staffed up to really have vaccinate or's and involve -- enrollees providers and get all of them trained to do all of this work. a typical goal -- atypical immune eyes asian program works with -- immune eye -- immuneization program just has the typical vaccines do not go through typical vaccine orders every day and getting them into tracking the data. they have to double and triple their stats, and that is the biggest need, i think. 140,000 u.k. has done vaccinations in a week. what numbers can we expect in the united states? claire: that is a good question. 3 million doses were sent out, so the last batch of those going sites, but some of
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those will be set aside for long-term care facility vaccination that will start next week. many arenot know how being given out. it will be interesting to see. it is probably about the same, probably 150000 and we will start gearing up as we move forward. alix: more breaking news from mitch mcconnell, he is saying now that he has passing a relief bill by friday and that could be a good goal. they are making "good progress." it is your understanding that if they pass a relief bill, the funding you need will be in there? claire: yes, there is $6 billion still in there for vaccine distribution, both sides of the aisle have been committed to that. so, yeah, i see that. within that $6 billion there are 3.2 billion or $4 billion for
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state and local health planning and response. as: does the cost come down the process unfolds? at the moment we are dealing with the pfizer vaccine has to be stored at super low temperatures. the moderna vaccine can remain stable at warmer temperatures and then we get the j&j vaccine which is much more manageable. as the process rolls out, does the cost go down? claire: i think it might come down slightly. is one dose j&j and we will get more proficient at doing this, but i think you need all of those supplies, and you need all of the staffing. you still have all of the planning, the security, everything that you are doing with the clinic. impact thet might overall cost is how many people get vaccinated in the private sector versus how many people we need to vaccinate in public health clinics that need to be funded.
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we do not know that at this point. it will rely on supply. if we get new vaccines and candidates coming in and we have additional supply, then we will need to get more efficient and have more vaccinate or's, and that will be more costly -- vaccinaters and that will be more costly. if we need to we will use the private sector system, and it may cost a little last. well, we really do, thank you very much indeed. n from thena association of immunization manager. boris johnson about to deliver a press conference. we will bring you that in a moment. ♪
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boris:30 in london, johnson about to give an update rules u.k.'s covid
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surrounding the christmas holiday and will be joined by the chief medical officer we will wait for that briefing. if you want to watch it and find out what the rules are over christmas, whether or not they are being amended, you will be able to do that on live go on your bloomberg terminal, we will be bringing you the headlines as soon as they cross. we are getting headlines out of d.c. as well. alix: this time it is chuck schumer saying that we are close to a relief package deal and goes on to say that you can expect more later, specifically the finish line is in sight, but more relief will come in the future, and this echoes mitch mcconnell's statement. maybe on friday you could see something passing. all of that adding to what we are seeing in the market. getting dire for some, so let us see by how much. recent data shows americans are running down their checking
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accounts with a handful of aid programs set to expire like unemployment benefits, a moratorium on evictions. joining us to discussed is steve nour, chairman and ceo of a regional bank and also made a bid for tfc financial for $6 billion. we will discuss that in a moment, but i want to get your take, what is it like for people who bank with you? steve: this has been going on for a long time, and the second round of the virus has brought more dislocation in terms of jobs so there is really a segment of our constable base that is suffering additionally, and it is compounded by the seasonality. so, the relief package has an enormous prospect of doing great for many people. we are eager to see it pass. get tow quickly does it
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the places where it needs to go to? ppp was pretty effective last time, give us have -- a sense of how quickly money is going to be available and how quickly people will be able to utilize the money? we have seen the virus picking up for weeks now and we have been prevaricating on stimulus and it is finally coming, when does it make an impact into peoples's pockets? matter ofs could be a a couple of weeks. it depends what is in the package and how it is being distributed. -- dig into some of the details for us. the housing and auto market has held up well due to lower rates, and we are hearing that some homeowners are making -- are looking to make delays in mortgage payments and i am wondering what the auto sector will bring, a foreshadow of what the first quarter could look like. what did you notice? steve: it is a function of
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unemployment. the unemployment rate in ohio and some of the surrounding states is 5.5%. good,s relatively particularly at this stage of recovery. and if you are one of those families where the breadwinner is laid off, it is a problem. there is almost like a bifurcation occurring, and we need to be collectively, as a society, supportive of those who are impacted by the virus who have lost their jobs, for no other reason than the fact that they cannot work as a consequence of the virus. you are seeing the industry and huntington being very supportive, and we expect to continue, i cannot speak for other banks. guy: what do you think the situation will look like next year. orwill see the vaccine, and, do you think they will continue to see nonperforming loans pick up or do you think you will see for balance -- forbearance
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picking up. the financial markets are pricing the economy to come back with a bang. steve: i think that is what we are going to see. our outlook is a 4% to 6% gdp growth. there will be some sector that is challenged and we will need to support it. by and large, we will see a significant recovery, certainly in the second half as the vaccines get distributed in the first quarter and half of the year. contendl banks have to with the yield curve. we can celebrate 80 basis points, but that spread is not great. the holy grail will be volume making up for the lack of net interest income. can you walk me through the manned you are seeing -- the demand you are seeing right now? is increasing demand interrupted by supply chain impact. if you look at the auto side, the auto dealers cannot get enough product, or the housing
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crunch certainly in ohio and parts of the midwest. the new housing construction almost presold, there is a capacity issue in the system right now. i think that will level off next year and we will get back into an equilibrium. alix said you just did the tcf deal, i am wondering, there has been a whole range of regional bank deals that we have been picking up on, and i am wondering how far through this process we are? is there more road, will we see more consolidation? steve: we have been talking about bank consolidation for 10 years and it has not happened, so i am not a good forecaster. these are more challenging times with interest rates the where -- where they are but that does not necessary translate into additional column -- consolidation. for us, this is strategic.
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both good things performing well, how -- our outlook was positive that we get a lot of economies on scale, and we have introduced a lot of revenue opportunities into the tcf customer base that did not have -- that they did not have the process to deliver. million above$150 our increasing baseline for the next couple of years. one thing the virus has done is made us all much morbid -- digitally oriented than we would have been nine months ago. that is businesses and consumers. alix: some analysts are worried about integration risks, customer retention in that tcf is doing a merger with chemical, so they are going under that, lots of moving parts. walk me through how you expect that to go. to be veryxpect this successful, and combination with a revenue growth beyond that
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that is very significant. start with the integration between tcf and chemical, which is already taken place. those systems are converted. there is one set of conversions in the future, not two, and we have done this at this relative scale. we have a lot of unique product and service capabilities and there is a tremendous level of committed colleagues or team and workingcf, together, we will put this together with lots of benefits members, their colleagues, and customers. it is an exciting moment. there might be some loss, that i do not think it will be substantial, and that will be offset by the gains we make as together we have more capabilities. guy: one of the things that a lot of ceos tell us right now is that we see a decade of digital acceleration within the last nine months.
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i am sure that is true for banking, people cannot visit branches and they are having to do more online in their understanding -- understanding opportunities that it provides. that reese shapes your narrative, to these deals make more sense in that requirement as you are able to take more branches out and deliver digital cup -- digital opportunities. how much of that can be frontloaded? steve: there is cost-cutting anytime you put two companies together that is just part of getting synergies. for us, there is also a reinvestment of some of those expense reductions, and there is an anonymous revenue opportunity -- enormous revenue opportunity. i can put out a number of things that they are just outsourced that we do as a matter of course. guy: ok.
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great to talk with you, thank you for taking the time to talk to us about the opportunity going forward and what you see with the economy. the huntington bank share's ceo. boris johnson has appeared behind the lectern, delivering the updates on what exactly christmas is going to be light in the united kingdom. as we get headlines on what he is saying and what chris whitty is saying we will bring those to the -- to you. this is bloomberg. ♪ frank,son: but i must be we are seeing worrying rises. and we are still seeing rising infections in the number of cases in london is at 270 per 100,000 people. ♪
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>> this is bloomberg markets, i am live in the principal room. we will hear from guggenheim, mobile chief investment officer at 2:00 p.m. in new york. this is bloomberg.
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guy: in the last couple of minutes we are getting news out of boeing, the company saying it is scrapping its 2021 pay raises for most employees, and there might be three more years until full recovery. dave calhoun basically saying that except for executives and unionized workers, there is going to be a share issuance designed to try and keep people on board through this process, and to compensate for that pay cut that we are likely to see where the pay stabilization. the stock in march was down to 95, so it is already coming up a long way and it will not back up to the highs that it was before the crisis, but you wonder how much of the upside has already come through into the pricing. alix: if they are looking at a three-year recovery, it is a 3 -- is a three-year recovery
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priced into the stock? is that up 56% through tuesday and the end of october. i do not know, and you can have a situation where earnings are better, especially on a year on year basis, but does it justify the price to earnings multiple that you will be paying? i do not have an answer, but that might be something we have to contend with. to: it will be interesting see the teammates as they are described, how much they will end up with as a result of the offering. i guess it is one way to incentivize everybody to deliver a good upside. as you say, the stock has come a long way very quickly over the last month, and the max will face big headlines. alix: they have to pay off their debt. i think there debt is at $61 billion, and they are already shutting -- shutting a third of
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their workforce. if they raise money, a lot of it will have to go to debt servicing. guy: absolutely. there are some real challenges. he has a real upside battle and some question if you will stick around after the fact that we have the max back in the air and we are starting to see the process unfolding. it looks like it will be a three-year challenge and may be a hint if he will stick around, i do not know if you should read between the lines. certainly on a difficult trajectory. alix: indeed, maybe. maybe he is giving himself some options for three years, why not? guy: i think executives are not allowed to get these options that i am sure he is in those category. we are back looking at what is happening intended outings street. this is chris whitty, the chief medical officer briefing what is happening in terms of the uptick we are seeing in u.k. cases. the numbers are pretty alarming, and the government is saying we
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will stick to current guidance over the christmas period, but basically saying trying have a small christmas and be sensible about this. think about who you will be visiting and whether or not you want to expose them to the risk. boris johnson indicated that people should reduce contact is much as possible. a five day hiatus will continue of the government try to persuade people that they should go small rather than big. leaving a lot of emphasis on personal decisions and individuals doing the right thing. coming up, prices are getting a jolt as how price -- the pandemic are -- is helping the coffee market. this is bloomberg. ♪
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alix: time for futures in focus, we will drill down into coffee prices adding a big jolt this
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year. they did plan march until june, but if you look at the last few weeks futures rebounded, consumers stepped up on coffee. just recently we have seen an awesome streak since september 11. let us dig into the why, whether it is something that you think about. haveave a sense -- you central america dealing with a rough supply and hurricanes and brazil dealing with dry weather. this is a staggering charge. c.e. blue line is the i. coffee exchange data. the white line is the average. look how far below when it comes to the average and many analysts are bullish on coffee because of that. looking the latest one into 2021 and 2022 saying retail coffee demand is expected to recover the second quarter of next year and a reduction in
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office work at home encouraging more coffee intensive away from home demand, i am assuming that is a starbucks thing at retail and restaurant straight -- chains with growth ready. that was a mouthful, coffee intensive away from home demand. guy: a fully caffeinated alix steel, and one of her favorite subjects, as you can tell. ofning us is the chairman one of italy's largest coffee roasters and their coffee is served by 100,000 retails around -- retailers around the world and they have 160 camp -- cafes. thank you for your time. right to talk to you. how has coffee consumption changed during the pandemic, how has behavior shifted, and does that behavior stake in the way that people consume? >> well, thank you for having
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me, first of all, good afternoon. people keep drinking their average numbers of cups of coffee, they just change the place. they drink more coffee at home, so there has been a shift from coffee shops, restaurants, and hotels with a significant retaile of sales in the channel, and even much better in the e-commerce. so total consumption remains pretty much flat, i would say, location, and i think this will last for a while, until we get the full recovery of the hospitality channels. alix: based on that, what i read in the note is that citi is looking for people coming back into the office which would change coffee consumption. how are you thinking about your business and diversification?
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is omni channeled. more developed in hospitality, hotel, restaurants, and cafes globally. from there we introduced the brand and other places of consumption, namely the home and office space. isi said, once the consumer used to their preferred coffee brand, but we are privileged to be the much preferred, then consumers tend to follow the thed, and just change format which is up for another kind of consumption in the interim place. the company has been very reactive in the covid period to transition from the hospitality to at home, and by developing a
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significant market investment in new products, for instance we benefited from the new capsule that will launch. and we made a significant investment in the digital transformation in better -- to better serve with subscriptions and proprietary caused -- coffee machines, our customers at home, strengthening our retail distribution in the supermarkets, and the branding. with that, we are now 50-50 at home, which is a good place to be and we hope to be able to maintain once the coffee is recovered. guy: i have to say i am a big fan of the stove top i put your coffee in it every morning. it taste delicious. it starts my day off in a nice way. let us talk about where you go next. the formats are critical and you have to be able to ask but -- access those.
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launched new formats and how you will access that. stateside you were thinking about launching more coffee shops, is that on hold? are you going to focus more on your relationship with amazon, i am curious whether or not the momentum behind the shift has got you to that position and continues more into the retail? illy is an italian family business committed to the best coffee in the world, so we are really committed to the best ultimate quality. we are global, the most global coffee brand in over 140 countries, as you said. in order to continue to grow our sales, which are already two thirds out of italy, we needed to develop a stronger domestic market, and this is why the most important market outside of italy, which is the united
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states, we are planning to accelerate. in order to accelerate in the united states we need an investor who could be our local partner. thate are pleased to say we have found a future minority y cafe,r in the ill particularly for the home channel in the united states. in order to do so we will scale up the investment that we already made in the compatible capsule in the retail sales with more investment in order to accelerate growth in the usa, which is the largest coffee market globally, but also the largest luxury glue -- luxury goods globally, which is good for a super premium coffee like the illy brand. guy: we appreciate your time,
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thank you for joining us. greatly appreciated. there are other brands of coffee available and i know alix takes a different view. .e will speak to eric nielsen that conversation next. ♪
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guy: from london, i am guy johnson, alix steel is over in new york and we are counting down the european close. what do you need to know? washington labor billing switzerland a currency manipulator. the swiss bank saying it is willing to intervene more strongly in the fx market. fishing rights are said to be the last hurdle for a brexit deal. the dollar is at the highest price since 2018. the u.k. vaccinated 140,000 people in the first week of the rollout despite climbing cases, and boars johnson saying -- boris johnson saying that christmas will continue and we will have a break for the system and the u.k.. more details on that in a moment. let us talk about what is happening with the stock market and other asset class story. we are up .7% in terms of the ui

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