tv Worldwide Exchange CNBC November 23, 2012 4:00am-6:00am EST
. welcome to the final "worldwide exchange" of the week. happy thanksgiving, as well. just waiting for the ifo sentiment index, see whether it confirms what the pmis have been telling us this week about the german economy. suggests we may be heading into possibly contraction territory. expecting it to be around 99.5 versus 100. expectations entex is frft at 93.2, unchanged from the
previous reading. not out yet. kathleen brooks is with us. i'm not sure why we don't have it but anyway, whatever your expectations are for this, how close is germ 234i going to skirt with contraction in the fourth quarter? >> it certainly has been slowing down and it looks like there's the possibility that even germany is starting to have some mild contraction and maybe even in the technical recession i would think over the next two quarters. the economic indicators have been coming down in determine any, there had been an expectation that consumption kicks up more in the country.
which it has a little bit, but a little less than maybe people have been expecting. obviously the fallout from the international crisis and the backdrop is not really helping. >>. >> euro-dollar edging up to a three week high. growth numbers don't seem to mary ann awful lot to the traders. >> no. it's been able to shrug off the kind of pmis, weak german data. quite easily this week. we're probably going to be looking for next week really to start seeing of how the trends will form with the end of the
year. >> current conditions index 108.1. reuters con send 1us for that 106.3. so in fact, that number is better across the board than one might have expected. >> slightly good news. expectations being slightly higher is what's important. we saw it with the pmis yesterday. business expectations are pretty dismal across the eurozone and that's worrying as we go into 2013. >> the not quite as bad as i had feared. the question in terms of contraction has always been a marginal one really with sort of a few decimal points.
>> no difference between the surveys and the hard data. are the surveys overstating the weakness? >> it's possible the surveys are maybe a bit on on the optimistic side really with real data. i think certainly recently -- >> gdp up 32%. the break down looked a little better, as well. >> well, 0.2% is not really -- >> that's better than what the pmis were saying. pmis have been in contraction territory. >> especially for germany, the expectationses have actually been coming down gradually over the year. early in the year germany was in-pen table strong and now with 0.2% growth.
>> the survey indicators is really much more fuzzy about how people are responding. what they do really show is that confidence is really low and that's the killer for europe. the killer for the global economy actually, not just euro. it's confidence incredibly low and people are losing confidence month by month, even if the economic data isn't necessarily as bad as some would expect. it will be difficult because i think even if you're in germany, if you see employment rising, awful outlooks for greeks and elsewhe elsewhere. what's going to on turn it around at the moment, ecb activating for the first time its own t program and hopefully by a sustainable low bond yield,
that will build confidence. but that's kind of a long shot, i think. >> okay. we'll take a pause. just remind you mario draghi is speaking at the euro finance conference. we'll get to him when he starts that. also on today and he show, going to be in tel aviv, the tenuous cease fire has entered its second day. one of the biggest shopping days of the year is underway and we'll be in philadelphia to see if this year's black friday bargains are stacking up cash for retailers. and what will the euro do for croatia? and strikers at america's biggest retailer, continue protests early this morning, as well. eu leaders saying they'll analyze proposals and restart
negotiations. things aren't looking good with angela merkel hollande doubting a deal can be reached. trims the amount originally cut from spending on agriculture as well as funds for poor eu states. >> we must be sensible and realistic. this budget is a budget for the rest of the uk. >> silvia has been in brusselss all week. what do you make of progress or lack of it? >> well twlrks's no big surprises here, first of all. it's actually not such a big drama. it was clear to everybody that we wouldn't reach a quick agreement. we might not reach an agreement today. we might not reach an agreement this weekend. the leaders have already cleared up their itineraries for the weekend, they might actually stick around for the weekend, and we might actually need another summit maybe sometime in
january before we solve things up. if past experience is anything to go by, that's the usual course of events. i think last time around in 2005, it also took something like 6, 7 weeks before we had an agreement. the between news in that is that we haven't got such a thing as a fiscal cliff like you have in the u.s. the old budget simply takes over up a new budget has been agreed on. so there is no financing disaster in the middle of it. the curious crux to this is if this old budget takes over because of the in-build qui sooif inflation factor in there, it's actually than the new budget they're debating right now, so all the countries pushing for the cut and even putting the threat on the veto on the table, they will actually chief the opposite. we'll keep on spending more even then with a sort of slide budget increase that the eu commission put on the table. and as to where the negotiations stand, i think at the moment the
budget talks, pardon to be cynical, but political posturing on the various side than the actual effects in there. because if you look at the mound that the various countries put up into the budget, i think like 9 billion and that is already one of the biggest, we just save banks and sovereigns for hundreds of billions of bailout funds. so in terms of the actual money, this is absolute small cheese. >> absolutely is. silvia, for now, thank you. we'll catch you a little bit later. till waiting to see if spain might ask for assistance or not. >> frankly no chance that sman will apply if any type of assistance. it's been able to sell debt. in that sense, why does it need
to go for a bailout. i think the biggest risk, it has a huge debt issuance. so if spain starts getting in to problem, i think it will be pushed very quickly into applying for some sort of assistance, activating the omt so that italy doesn't fall, not just spain. >> i can't see the markets pushing spain into an omt. politicians want slightly cheaper funding. i can't see why market participants will do it with the threat of the ecb coming in, why would they push yields higher. >> they haven't been forced to ask, but i would think in the end it would be the market pushing spain. personally there's a good chance at some point next year, might not have to be directly related to spain, but if there's a bit more risk aversion in the market for certain times, spain has a
heavy funding schedule next year, that that's the time when yields might back up again and that would really be -- >> let's say chinese growth holds up, the u.s. gets a deal on the fiscal cliff, greece gets its money, where is the market aversion coming from? >> happy days. >> we know growth will be useful, but apart from that. >> there's a few risks on the horizons. if the market gets a hint or a sniff that that will end, it will change. central bank policy will change. sooner maybe what we expect right now. we haven't seen it in the u.s. at all, but in europe, very worried about inflation. pledge to very low rates in the long term. and in the uk, a growing number of people. qe isn't necessarily working. that could potentially take
hold. >> what's the impact of qe not working? >> rising guilt yields essentially. >> they think there will be record lows next year for the safe haven. >> they've said that for quite a long time and they've been right. in terms of looking at the risks for 2013, the ones keeping volatility low, there has to be something that they're doing which could potentially cause it spike which could weigh on yields. >> all right. thanks for that. let's get to the global market report in singapore. >> thank you, ross. asian markets wrapped up the week on a positive note. in china, the incoming premiere
on further reforms boosted sentiment in the markets. liquor makers helped. some outperformed on the back of financial reform pilot program. shares in hong kong gained for the fifth straight session. this is the best week for the hang seng in 2 1/2 months. chinese developers rallied for the third straight day on hopes of supportive mole cipolicies. taiwan's government will unveil measures to boost markets. samsung and hyundai motor lent support to the kospi pushing the index to close higher 0.6%. australian market ended flat with energy majors tracking lower. the asx 200 is up nearly 2% for the week. nikkei 225 had already chalked
up nearly 4% gain this week. back to you. >> all right. thanks for that. so we just over an hour and 30 minutes or so into the european trading day, you can see after five days of gains, we're just weighted to the down side not by much. around about 6:3. still trying to get the best around greece. cac 40 down a quarter. ibex down 0.the 4%. so quite a good move. spanish yields just a little bit higher now by not much. italian yields 4.8. a little bit of yoos for ten year bunds. we have been down 1.3 recently. as far as the currency market is concerned, euro-dollar set a
three week high. ifo number better than expected at 101.4. dollar-yen steady 82.18. just off the 7 1/2 month highs that we hit yesterday. aussie dollar just still contained around the 104 mark. walmart's investigation into bribery allegations overseas, we'll have more on that story. i heard you guys can ship ground for less than the ups store. that's right. i've learned the only way to get a holiday deal is to camp out. you know we've been open all night. is this a trick to get my spot? [ male announcer ] break from the holiday stress. save on ground sh at fedex office.
an indian joint venture has suspended its top executive over anti-bribery allegations. here's more from new delhi. >> yes, there is trouble for walmart. it started operations in india in 2009. and this internal investigation is part of an investigation with the securities exchange commission. they decided to expand the scope of the internal investigation to look into operations in india and china. we understand from our sources
that a team led by executives from kpmg as well as a law firm here in india and as of now, the chief financial officer along with another couple of key executives have been suspended. they've been asked not to report to work until this internal investigation is complete. this couldn't have come at a worst time because remember the india parliament has been given the go ahead as far as walmart being able to step up its stores here in india. so this is going to be another reason for the opposition parties to force the government into a possible reversal of the decision. so it's looking difficult for walmart at this point in time. we've tried to contact the company. they have confirmed the investigation is on.
there is no time line that's been given by when they expect a conclusion for this internal investigation, but until the investigation is not complete, we've been given to understand that the chief financial officer and the other executives asked not to report to work will not be allowed to be part of the operati operation. this may jeopardize their expansion plans. that will perhaps be put on hold no now. >> in the ipo space, a possible $900 million initial public offering on december 10th. could be india's biggest in two years. future land development had a tough time raising money for its hong kong ipo. the firm drew roughly $26 million below its proposed rice
range. the cease fire enters it second day despite a number of rockets being put off, the truce has held so far. stephan stephanie gosk joins us for more. what's happening today? >> we're getting disturbing news out of gaza that could cause problems for a delicate cease fire. a 20-year-old man was shot and killed by israeli forces. p ten other palestinians were injured. they approached the border with israel and it imposes a 1,000 foot buffer zone. but part of the cease fire deal was that after 24 hour, israel would loosen up some of the restrictions on its border, as well as some of its crossings. it seems as if this was a testing of the stipulation and what happened was a gun battle
there on the border. already on on both sides, whether gaza or israel, there is not a lot of faith that the cease fire is going to hold. here in this country especially in the south, there was can it is investigation that the deal w distress that the deal was made in the first place. on the gaza side, there was a celebration what they're calling a victory in this conflict. >> stephanie, thank you for that. still to come, draghi is due to speak at the conference in frankfurt. when we come back, we'll hope that he'll be speaking. s if
seems more likely, athens still needs to find another 10 billion euros in cuts to comply with demands. plus the annual u.s. shopping frenzy known as black friday gets an early start this year as many americans finish their thanksgiving dinner and headed out in search of big deals thursday night. meanwhile we've been traveling throughout central and eastern europe looking at the impact of austerity. geoff is in croatia capital. >> of course these stories are intimately connected and we spoke with the prime minister here just yesterday before he headed off to those budget discussions in brussels. it is very important for croatia that there is a resolution of these budget negotiation talks
because they exceed to the eu next year and they are hoping to receive about 10 billion euros in support as a result of being an eu member. but let's talk about how the economy is fairing anyhow. we've had four years of really no growth in this economy. and i'm very interested to know from the central bank governor what the central bank has been doing to try to stimulate growth here. boris has joined me. in isn't that economy picking up at this point? >> there are a couple of reasons. obviously we have been faced with a crisis in europe, so demand has collapsed as you know in 2009. and then we haven't seen really recovery in pick up around us. and the second reason is of course domestic demand, as well, has come down and has not yet
recovered. what i mean is personal consumption, household consumption, and the investment. so if we are looking forward, i think what we should be looking at and find growth thp area primarily. >> there is clearly a difference this scale and the totals available, but we've seen the bank of england stimulate through qe. why can't croatia central bank stimulate by making monetary conditions looser? >> we can and we did that. we cannot do the qe, but we basically reduced the number of regulatory restrictions for the growth of credit for the banks that we've had before the crisis
and by doing that, we have created the structural xhes in the economy. up to the point where the banks at the moment are not giving the repo window, so we're not actually exiting the repos as we have created so much structural liquidity. rick aversion has increased a lot as in other countries. >> your key policy rate is the fixed repo rate and that's still relatively high by european standards. >> but we have structure all liquidity increased, the the banks don't need it. basically our picture difference policy straight 0%. lower of the reserve requirements for the banks, which is still relatively high, and they have all the liquidity that they need to send the
credit. and of course we're ready to do that even more in the future as the growth picks up and the credit growth picks up, which is still not the case. >> clearly there is a problem here with loan growth. 90% of the banks are foreign owned effectively that operate here. local firms say that they're finding it very difficult to get loans from many of these banks even though they have goodly liquidity. >> you'll hear two stories. if you you talk to the banks, they will say that good programs and good collateral is nicing. but i think that it's a little bit of both. one is the demand where there is not at the moment enough of the quality demand. and the second is the risk aversion in the banking system has increased up to the point that they consider many things that they have not considered before risky.
>> clearly you are an economy very vulnerable to what happens in core europe. we have budget negotiations taking place at the moment and mario draghi who is pushing to make conditions easier through european natural bank policy. what would you you like to hear draghi say today that would make you think monetary conditions will be much easier across europe and that some confidence will come back into the european monetary system? >> i think the european central bank is doing what it needs to do at the moment. they have clearly said that they will be ready to intervene once the countries ask for a program. so it will a conditional thing, but we didn't have a single policy that it has to be conditional. and i think it's really up to the structural policies
government to do its own part. because monetary policy can do at this moment, overall, not only in europe, is by time for the things structurally to be settled and the fiscal policies adjusted. >> having said that, he could move faster if the the bundesbank was prepared to be a little more flexible on areas like the omt and extending permanent support mechanisms to spain, italy, greece and so forth. do you think then the bundesbank and the germans should be encouraging the ecb to be more flexible? >> i think it's now accepted that this policy is the right policy i think there is wide majority of sport support around europe, politicians,
governments, whatever. which is good because now we have a really clear path in that sense for the monetary policy. >> sir, thanks very much for telling us a little bit more about how conditions are here in croatia. of course sharing with us a line on how you think the ecb is doing managing policy. rosz, i know you have mr. draghi waiting in the wings to speak. so in light of the comments here and a valley day, if you like, of what he's done so far, interesting to see where the next step takes us. back to you from company and i sha. >> good stuff, geoff. thanks very much. still waiting for mr. draghi. we'll get to there in a second. mortgage approvals a tick up from 29,000.
mortgage approvals jumping up in october. now, wil we wait for mr. draghi, the ceo of commerce bank has been speaking. he says the ecb is only candidate for single european bank oversight. but germany shouldn't block thatover item for all the banks. he's saying it should be affected to all the banks and the banking supervision must row with other measures. and not accept for the u.s. to drop basel iii. add like to be introduced sooner rather than later. what do you make of those comments? >> i was smiling a little
because i think of course the comments indicate what a vigs importance for commerzbank which is a level playing field. one reason they have struggle for a long time, in the domestic market, they face very strong competition from all the savings banks, just in relative terms, maybe 5% market share in an every little town they face a saving bank with 40% market share. >> which why he wants them to be supervised by the ecb. >> certainly. he certainly wants those banks to face the same regulatory hurdles that a larger bank will face.
i think of proes and cons in there. certainly a very complex framework. some aspects are signed backward looking potentially rather than forward looking. and i guess partially there's the question of philosophy. to be a regulator or regulatory framework that essentially micro manages the way banks operator should it be more principles led, guideline led, and should really be left with the banks operating in the market. >> what do you think about the regulatory proposal? there was an idea with spain we were supposed to be separating banks from sovereigns. i didn't really see anything on the table at the moment that will do that. >> it's a difficult task.
at the end of the day, there is always a strong link between banks and sovereigns. least of all because pangs are part of the monetary rans mission system in an economy. and by nature of what they do, exposed to all aspects of the national economy. so plea ly separating them from the sovereign is difficult. >> all right. we still wait for mr. draghi in frankfurt. we'll switch our attention to australia. getting tough to multinational company which is it says are exploitingle local laws pl google has insisted it's followed local laws. the assistant treasury is not pleased.
david, thanks for joining us, this has been a subject of discussion here in the uk, as well. the question is can you actually do anything about it. >> well, good to be with you, ross. certainly there are a number of things that we can do in relation to our domestic laws, but i think the main game when it comes to tackling some of these practices is to be working internationally. we do know to have a fairly fundamental over some of the concepts that underpin our approach to international tax law. if you have a look at the concepts that very much dry the way in which we determine taxing rights, emphasis about source and residence and permanent establishments, this is very much the language of law that was assigned for industrial and i think it's increasingly found to be wanting when it comes to some of the challenges that the
information and digital age that we're now confronting. >> nobody is doing anything illegal. there are complex tax arrangements that are perfectly legal. should we be taxing profits or some other measures of companies. >> well, certainly i think these sorts of things have to be on the table in terms of whether or not it might be a question of looking at where the actual economic activity is occurring. certainly in relation to whether or not companies are in breach the tax laws, i can't generalize, but there are number of practices that comply with all the relevant domestic laws. but the issue boils down to whether or not the international tax concepts are capable of properly ensuring that those nations that are generating the
economic activity, whether they're deriving significant return. and i think increasingly we're seeing that there are serious concerns and the country is not only like australia, but right around the world facing increasing fiscal pressures and sustainability questions around budgets. obviously we need to be very focused on making sure that we dough expect a pair share of taxation from those profitable companies. >> you've been fairly vocal about individual companies. what has google been doing? >> i did refer to google and a number of other countries. only in returns to them that already in the public domain. i used an example of what can
occur and is occurring. but the only reason i used that example was i thought it was important to draw attention to what we believe is occurring here. google pointed out they're not in breach of any laws. but i think what is important is we must recognize that all multinational companies do benefit from the infrastructure that government has put in place and that may be legal and regulatory, it might be hard communications or physical infrastructure, but it is important that multinational corporations benefiting from economic activities are also paying a fair share. because this they don't, then the burden of that tax will have to be felt by others. and ultimately that will fall
upon families and households tlou the rest of the country. sgr fair share, i hear that phrase quite a lot. david, thanks for joining us. it's become a bit of a hot topic. i don't know whether you have any views on it. >> well, it's a simple and complex issue. i think you pointed out, it's really a legal issue. countries can change their tax laws, but the reasons i believe for some of the low tax rates the companies are able to pay are really a competitive issue for these companies to attraction them to come. >> you can have a subsidiary in ireland or the netherlands and that he another base -- you're paying those tax rates. mario draghi is speaking.
let's listen in. >> it's a pleasure to be here today to address the frankfurt european banking congress. a year ago i gave my first speech at this venue. it's been an intense year for the ecb and for europe. challenging, yet promising. european financial crisis intensified at first due to to several interconnected factors. deteriorating fiscal and banking conditions in some countries including large ones. increased financial practicing mentation and first signs of a renewed weakening of a european economy. the ecb reacted in a proactive way by successively lowering policy interest rates and by devising at the end of last year
a monetary policy instrument that was particularly effective in specific circumstances at that time. to counter risk for european banks that were then concentrated many on the funding side we supplied liquidity at long maturity at low rates fully accommodating the demand by the the market. we succeeded in calming the immediate tensions, averting a credit crunch that could otherwise have had grave consequences for the economy, employment, and price stability. when i talk about price stability, i mean price stability in both directions. our objective is close but below 2%. that action in itself could not prevent a further practicing mentation of financial markets. increasingly driven in the early
summer by what i called redenomination fears. the concern that the euro area membership could prove unsustainable for some countries. the danger was concrete that the loop between weak public finances and banks could prop gate to a large set of countries in euro area leading to an uncontrollable spiral and feeding in to the real economy. credit and economic growth were falling lead to go rising unemployment and reduced consumption and investment. all of this meant that the outlook was increasingly fragile. the disruption of monetary policy transmission due to financial fragmentation is something deeply profound. it threatens the single monetary
policy and the and the ecb's ability to deliver price stability. this was why the ecb decided that action was essential and that a credible back stop against disaster scenarios was required which led to the announcement of the outright monetary transactions. sf interest e in this sense the ecb has shown foresight so as to contribute to the stability of the euro area economy as a whole. cohesion of the leaders was crucial. in june, european leaders decided to accelerate the move towards a financial union by creating a single back supervisor centered around the ecb. and by linking to the possibility that european banks
in due time and under certain conditions could receive direct capital support from the esm. together with the announcement of the omt, this led to much more benign market conditions that have prevailed in the recent months. therefore i can address you today against the background over relative return confidence in the prospects of the euro area. the rush of confidence eturn of justified, but tu relies y s i three things. first i'd like tos assure markets that we stand ready to implement this program as and when required. second governments need continue to pursue structural reforms at the enter national al level. this is essential to regain
competitiveness where it has been lost and lay the foundations for sustainable and balanced growth in the future. third, leaders need to follow up with determination on their commitment to make the institutional reforms needed to pli economic and monetary union. that will fully restore stability. the mess an cage conveyed in ju that to succeed, institutional reforms must extend to the financial system, to the fiscal and check policy framework, and to the area of democratic accountability. these building blocks form a consisted and interconnected whole thp they can be addressed within different time frames and
following a logical order so long as the commitment to address all four is unwavering. in my remarks today, i would like to elaborate on the rationale and principles for establishing a sink supervisory mechanism. it's important to understand exactly why we need such a mechanism. to determine you how it would be designed. on the ideal schedule for establishing the single supervisors, i agree with those who say that we need to do it in a timely fashion, but above all, we need to do it well. what is essential is ideally on on january 1st, 2013, so that preparations can begin. but then we have to take all the time that's needed. the crisis has highlighted the fundamental inconsistency between the single monetary
policy of the euro area and the responsibility of national authorities for financial policies. single currency needs a single financial system not practicingmented along national lines. more over, for the effective functioning of the single monetary policy and therefore for delivering price stability, banks are key in transmitting monetary policy impulses. it is impossible to avoid difficulties in submission arising from the countries in which banks happen to be located, yet such fragmentation within europe's financial system has occurred. as a consequence of the sovereign debt crisis. the relationship between the credit of solve rinse and that of their financial system is well understood. it runs both ways. divergence in sovereign credit
has resulted in divergence in bank funding conditions at the national level. this in turn has brought about differences in lending conditions which hampered the transcript mission of monetary policy. banks facing funding pressures react by tightening the lending conditions for firms in households which ultimately leads to a breakdown in the relationship between lending rates and monetary policy rates that prevail in normal times. the other feed book loop between banks and sovereigns also has negative effects on efforts to re-establish fiscal sustainability. countries are increasingly penalized by the financial markets because of their additional burden of supporting domestic banks. against this background, the need to break the loop between banks and sovereigns at national
level by taking responsibility for financial stumt becomes evidence. this is why a financial union is necessary steps to improve investor confidence. by restoring stability, it provides the most effective response to the fragmentation of euro's banking markets. financial crisis differ in many respects, but they tend to have common origins. these include the rapid expansion of credit, increasing leverage, asset price bubbles and especially rapidly declining credit quality standard. national supervisories were often lenient in the face of these developments partly because of regulatory arbitrage.
partly because you they were subject to a variety of constraints and pressures. the single supervisor should possess all the qualities necessary to guard against these risks on a durable basis. it should be rigorous and even handed. free from local pressures and interests. it should have the vision and take on broad range in approach independently assessing the situation of individual banks in a systemic context. as to the specific institutional arrangements, several alternatives have been proposed. solution chosen by the european leaders to build the system around the ecb is probably the only pragmatic one in the present circumstances. 14 out of 17 national central bank governors in the euro system already have a supervisory role. 24r6r working joibtsly with the
national supervisory authorities, the ecb will have the legal authority and technical capability to carry out this complex task successfully. the single supervisor will cooperate with the existing authorities. moving supervisory powers to the european level should not and will not change their respective roles and tasks. but some observers have suggested that the presence in the same institution, monetary policy and supervisory decisions, can lead to excessive burdens, potential confusion of roles and/or distorted incentives. these concerns must be taken seriously to guard against them
materializing and person principles must be fulfilled. let me elaborate based on on reflections within the ecb governing council. the first principle is the need for rigorous separation of monetary and supervisory policies. the ecb has the advantage of having a very clear goal of price stability expressed in a transparent and measurable way. in objective has never been compromised in the 14 years of the euro and it will not be compromised in the future. the ecb's attachment to the primary objective of price stability remains unquestioned. the proposeposal provides for t establishment of a separate supervisory board within the ecb which will include representatives from national
authorities. this proposal allows for ale pooling of from advisory expertise and knowledge and will help to ensure that decision making lines are clearly pratted. to separate day to day activities, the governing council will define internal procedures making clear distinctions within the organization. we can build on a wealth of experience in this field looking at best practices from the many central banks that combine supervisory and monetary policy functions. the second principal sell is the need to safe guard independence. independence is not a new concept to the ecb. neither is accountability.
we are proud of our independence. and in the context of supervision, the ebc needs to be safe guarded from external interests and national bias. with the activation of article 127.6, the provisions of the treaty are extended to the new supervisory task. these provisions include independence in supervisory assessments. in addition, the ecb has supervisor will enjoy operational independence. it is essential independence extends to all members of the supervisory boards. such independence is crucial for the credibility of the supervisory system.
at the same time, it's equally crucial that the strong supervisory powers should be matched with very strong arrangements for accountability. let me assure you that we are eager to comply with the highest standards of democratic accountability at all levels. that is vis-a-vis both european institutions and national institutions. the third principle is that the single supervisor should possess a complete set of supervisory instruments. all banks established in participating member states would in principal fall within the realm of the single supervisor. this is important to ensure a level playing field. it will also prevent fragmentation in the financial system which is precisely what we are aiming to repair. one lesson of the financial crisis is that not only large cross border banking
conglomerates have the capacity to destabilize the financial system due to inter-linkages and self contagion, even smaller institutions may turn out to be systemically important. incidentally such banks have a strong presence in europe. in almost half of the euro area countries, more than 60% of the total bank assets are held by smaller banks. taking the euro area as a whole, approximately 13% are held by smaller banks. these are significant amounts. the supervisory board would be able to assert controlled over all banks in participating countries. let me know say something more on how such a system could operate. the european would work with the
supervisory board at the center. the board will itself be predominantly composed of top left differences of the national authorities. hence the decision making will be collective basedon -- >> we're listening in to the ecb president mario draghi speaking at the euro finance conference in frankfurt. t omt is ready to be enacted when and if needed. let's get back to him. >> they will contribute with knowledge of national, regional and local banking markets. the intensity of centralized supervision will be the highest. but also close supervision on daily activities are remain in place. the rolevise ors will
increase when going down the dimensional scale to banks of predominantly national or local relevance. the single supervisory mechanism should also strengthen the single european market. therefore all member states, also the ones that have not adopted the euro, should have the possibility of participating in the single supervisor. and i'm confident that the proper legal framework that serves this objective can be soon identified and adopted. i have touched on the elements needed for the new authority to function success 234ri. let me address what i see as the main implications for the banks. a strong area wide supervisor can restore and uphold business confidence this all banks regardless of their location.
it can therefore contribute to a revival of interbank and credit markets. second, the single supervisor should ensure homogenous supervision, convergence of practices, a level playing field, and, therefore, a reduction in compliance costs. ensuring convergence is not enough. supervisory practices also need to converge. the creation of a single supervisory handbook by eba is complimentary to this approach. best practices should become standard practices. the single supervisory handbook should also ensure that in cases where banks are supervised in a decentralized manner within the system, practices are consistent
across countries. it will contribute to a reduction of systemic risk. the establishment of a single supervisory mechanism would represent a major step towards financial union. but in case we need to resolve financial institutions, we want to be able to do so without taxpayers money and without disrupting the payment system even in the case of systemically important institutions. for that, we need a common resolution regime and independent resolution authority. the existing legislative proposal is developing in the right direction and ecb reports it rapid adoption. it would be best implemented through an authority immune from
national bias and national vested interests. the establishment of a financial union is a measure of the component of the institutional framework for monetary union. the single supervisory mechanism forms an integral pact of the framework. with a new system in place, a critical course of instability, the link between fiscal authorities will largely be removed and a level playing field will be ensured. this is one important step towards a more stable european economy. over the course of the last year, the ecb has continued to follow its monetary responsibilities in a highly demanded environment and continued to excerpt its mandated role in coping with the crisis with a high degree of responsiveness and foresightness. three things have been essential
here. first, the ecb has not stepped into any wrongs that belong to governments. they, should, have to take responsibilitieses for coping with the crisis in a resolute manner. second, the ecb has continued to cherish its i said espn. and third, the ecb has continued to deliver what is taxed to dlafr, price stability for the euro area. thank you. you've been listening to the ecb president mario draghi. and we'll recap what he said in just a few moments. let's also remind you of the headlines today from around the world. surprise increase in german business sentiment in november has pushed the euro a little bit higher. this has mario draghi has defended plans for single banking supervision built around the ecb. he's also urged governments to recent ahead with reforms. and the prospect of reaching a deal on the eu budget has faded as the latest proposal has fallen short of demands for
spending cuts. and an agreement in greece, athens still needs to find another 10 billion euros this cuts to comply with demands. and black friday gets an earlier start this year. many americans finished their thanksgiving dinner and headed out in search of big deals last night. if you've just tuned in, a warm welcome to "worldwide exchange." we hope you've had a very good thanksgiving day. this is where futures are. a shortened session today in the united states. and we're indicated for an upward start. dow some 18 points above fair value.
european stocks are a little mixed this morning. flat on the xetra dax. down two on the cac 40. eye bebs down a third of 1%. dollar-yen pulling back from the highs we saw yesterday. on the bond markets, yields in spain and italy, in pain just slicely higher. still quite a bit below the 6% level. so mario draghi says they need to have a legal basis for backing supervision. they want to build it around the ecb. he says it's the most practical solution and need to supervise all the banks in the euro.
and still ready with the omt should it be needed. julian callow is here for his reaction. let's kick off with the omts. he's reiterated what he's told us. one of the questions is will we ever get it enacted. spain we saw borrowing costs yesterday look fairly manageable at the moment. >> yes. as you say, it all really things at this stage on spain. seems fairly clear that italy is not interested in obtaining one of the precautionary programs and therefore triggering the ocht mt. so it's just a question of whether madrid will rise to the bait and the pressure that is clearly there. and that was already that pressure implicit i think in the ecb president's comments just a few moments ago. in the case of spain, it does rather look like we have to see an increase in financial market
tension before madrid might actually give way and request a package which would as i say a way for the ecb to do the omt operations. and there is a great desire to engage here because they do feel i imagine that there is a lot more in the way of additional stimulus on the monetary side that could be brought to bear. but they're also going acutely conscious that if they go and do it first without some program, without conditionality, well, then you run into the big draw back with the previous program which is that then governments will have a tendency to back off taking the really tough measures particularly as vested interests come into play in national parliaments. >> at the same time, trying to crawl to some kind of an agreement on greece. reuters quoting a greek finance
men industry source saying international end is a 9 billion return of ecb profits up to 8 billion in interest rate cuts on loans as well as other measures to get greek debt on a more sustainable path. and they said if approved, buy back could be completed by the year end. now, as i say, these are just sources being quoted on reuters. if it turns out to be something like that, what difference does that make? >> well,ic th i think that is t general expectation. it will have to be a combination of factors including a debt buy back, including redistributing the profits that the euro system has made on its smp purchases of greek debt back to greece rather than the international government. one of the key sticking points is whether they could also lower the interest rates yet further to greece even as they're already low. and that of course puts italy and spain in a difficult position because they're have having to borrow much higher
rates. i think it does look like the stage is set ultimately for there to be some agreement. you have the euro meeting next monday and that will be absolutely pivotal for this and various reports that are circulating around would suggest that really the euro group did come fairly close to reaching agreement earlier this week. i think at the same time there's a lot of pressure because be in really wants on give way here much. and of course there's the important role of the imf and whether the imf is itself willing to give way. but ultimately we do have a hard deadline. greece is going to run out of cash very soon if it doesn't get the additional financing. and therefore that is really concentrating minds. so on balance, it looks like there will be some kind of agreement at the euro group next week in which case that could be a boost on confidence and of course we have to when we think about next monday think about
what the news might be out of caledonia. >> let's eye brokebring in silv brussels. i don't know whether you've heard the details and what you must have seen. they're talking this source about a greek did you tell buy back completed by the year end. 9 billion profit, 8 billion in interest rate cuts, might extend maturities, as well. >> this was always the mix that was on on the table in terms of the numbers. w50e67 heard various numbers floating around. was always a mix of lower interest rates, debt buy back program, redistribution of 9 billion in terms of profits was actually an option. it's an old option that was out there on the profits the ec bcht and banks made on greek debt. always the option there at either redistributed or give it back it greece.
merkel said greece will get two more years. that seems to indicate that an agreement was already reached so something had to give there and that would probably be a combination of lower interest rates, debt buy back ram. the number up to 40 billion was floated around there. and there was also talk at some stage of an interest rate moratorium, but i think we get either/or. at the moment it looks more like lower interest rates. as to what draghi said in his speech there in frankfurt from what i've heard and what i saw from it, it's really nothing new in there. we stand ready to act on omt, yes, but spain doesn't want any omt or doesn't want a program right now. so omt in the short run is not going to happen. he also said he thinks that some confidence is returning to the eurozo eurozone, so there might not be any immediate for omt. and i think this is kind of of
the ecb might keep telling us we're here for omt, but i think they wouldn't be unhappy if they never had to embark on it. >> meanwhile, julian, the ifo slooitly stro slightly stronger than expected this morning. pmis didn't paint a terribly good picture of the german economy. what is going to happen to the core over the next couple of months? >> in the case of germ any, it does seem the economy to be holding up, but not a particularly strong picture.any does seem the economy to be holding up, but not a particularly strong picture. we're seeing gradual improvement in sentiment which i think ultimately has to come out of southern europe here to be honest. things have been so bad, so
bleak, that could in turn help german sentiment. the german economy is so closely linked to the eurozone and the eurozone is so strongly influenced at the moment by the very sharp contraction in domestic demand in southern europe. when you put all this together, it really means germany does need to see some stabilization in confidence starting to emerge in southern europe. at the same time, germany is also very exposed to the american and asian export markets. in the case of the united states, it's looking quite mixed because you could be going over the cliff in a matter of a few weeks there which could be a negative in the near term. and then with respect to asia, i think the signs are still a little bit mixed. things may be starting to get a little bit firmer there. but it seems that you get some better noises and then you get some elements still which suggest things are quite weak this asia.
so overall the german economy is not really contracting here and we saw that with the latest q3 data. although when you look at the components, you can actually see for example that in q3, gdp grew by 0.2, but it was construction and public consumption that accounted for that. >> all right, julian, thanks for that. let's the get back to silvia. we were trying to talk about eu budget. what are individual politicians saying? >> we've had them all arriving for the next round of talks because yesterday of course after a whole day of bilateral talks with van rompuy, they cleared the way for possibly talking all weekend. david cameron summed it up perfectly where we stand right now. here it goes. >> i don't think there's been enough progress so far. i mean, there really is a
problem in terms of there hasn't been the progress in cutting back proposals for additional spending. and it isn't a time for tinkering. it isn't a time for moving money from one part of the budget to another. we need an affordable spending cut. that's what needs to happen here. >> on the button, mr. cameron. and that's a similar tunes that came out of angela merkel and the others coming in here saying we're still poles apart, it will be a long road. but we know it won't be a disaster. there is no fiscal cliff in europe. the the old budget will just continue ticking over until a new budget is agreed upon. and i think that will probably most likely happen well after christmas. probably going to have another budget at some time in january and then maybe, maybe we come to an agreement. >> like all of us, they'll be looking at their budgets after christmas. silvia, thanks very much for that. we'll catch you a little bit later. the mexican president calderon is trying to change mexico's
name it mexico. the country's official name is united states of mexico. mexicans took to twitter for mock the maim change, many not seeing it as serious. we'd like to know what country's name would you change and to what. join the conversation. email@example.com, @cnbcwex, at ross westgate. and planning major protests today. we'll be outside a walmart story near washington, d.c. can i help you?
i heard you guys can ship ground for less than the ups store. that's right. i've learned the only way to get a holiday deal is to camp out. you know we've been open all night. is this a trick to get my spot? [ male announcer ] break from the holiday stress. save on ground shipping at fedex office. you can stay in and share something... ♪ ♪ ...or you can get out there with your friends and actually share something. ♪ the lexus december to remember sales event is on, offering some of our best values of the year. this is the pursuit of perfection.
#. walmart organizers upset over working conditions, have 34r57bed protests 1,000 u.s. stores. we're in the suburbs of washington, d.c. hampton, what are they upset about? >> well, it could get a little noisy here in a couple hours. specifically this. there's pressure from a lot of organized labor and those who support organized labor to get unions inside walmart, try and get better pay and benefits for walmart 1.4 million employees. walmart's response is saying they're listening to those concerns, but they think that, again, the lack of momentum gained in the row it test so far is proof that most of the workers are pretty happy. there's other numbers here. black friday is kind of the super bowl for retailers here in
the states. walmart had 35 in million back friday shoppers last year. so this is a big day for a lot of their customers. meanwhile there's basically a skirmish going on between regulators. walmart was unsuccessful against getting an injunction that would have put off these kind of protests, so they will in-fact go forward. but again, it's a ratcheting up of the pressure on walmart, the world's largest retailer. again, saying that's a reason for the low prices and big profits. it's low pay and low benefits for workers. and we will see what this all looks like in a few hours when there's opposed to be a pretty good size protest here along with all those shoppers looking for those day after thanksgiving day bargains. ross, back over to you.
u.s. financial back in action. indicated slightly higher. european markets trying to put in their best week for ten months. research in motion up over the launch of blackberry 10. its price tar get on the stock at $15 from $12. the new device expected to hit the shops early next year. and the u.s. postal service plans to test same day package delivery in big cities. the service will initially be
offered in san francisco. pricing hasn't been announced and the postal service working out agreements with 8 to 10 large retail chains. and the government will appeal a ruling over unpaid debts stemming from the country's default a decade ago. wednesday a federal judge in new york ordered argentina to pay in full everything it owes to several u.s. investment funds. the judge also barred the country from paying other bond holders until the bill is paid. still to come, u.s. retailers are turning on the lights and throwing open the doors to holiday shoppers even earlier this year. will the promise of big deals lead to big profitses?
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data. and prospect of reaching a geel on t deal on the eu budget fades.dea on the eu budget fades. and the annual u.s. shopping frenzy known as black friday gets an earlier start as many americans finished thanksgiving dinner and headed out in search of big deals thursday night. i hope you had a great thanksgiving day. we are indicated up at the moment. s&p 500 about 8 points above fair value. the nasdaq just some 5 points. the dow at the moment is currently 20 points above fair
value. we see the ftse global 300 only slim moves here, up around five points. and that is reflected in the individual indices, as well. going to see if we can make it five days in a row for gains. right the now just up 8 for the ftse, only done one for the cac 40. ibex down 34. but it looks like we may be inching towards some agreement for greece and getting their money euro group meeting on on monday, as well. some consumers have already been shopping. walmart, target and toys "r" us opened as early as 8:00 p.m. on thanksgiving about that 147 million people will shop this weekend. joining us is marketing professor at the wharton school of business. director of the jh baker
retailing center. thanks very much for joining us. i know it's early after your thanksgiving day. how are consumers feeling heading into this date compared to other years? >> i think they're expressing cautious optimism. some indicators have shown consumer confidence is up. >> which are poised to do better than others? >> for black friday or in general? >> black friday. >> you see a lot of retailers opening up as you mentioned yesterday. walmart opened yesterday. a lot opened at midnight. macy's, best buy opened at midnight. this morning 6:00 a.m., you'll see the malls open and then everybody is open for business. it's not the just in the store, though. there is also competition from on online retailers.
>> you have black friday and cyber monday, as well. what's the share here between the two? >> expectation is that on on online shopping will go up 15% this year, so people are definitely shopping more on democratic line. and part of the reason that some of the retailers opened up earlier is because of the competition from online retailers. >> any special deals, low price guarantees. >> how do they lure them in? >> many of the retalters have both and online plebs and brick and mortar presence, but a lot of deals in the brick and mortar store, there will be price matching. wall mart and target have said that they'll price match. so lowest price guarantee. mart that they'll price match. so lowest price guarantee.mart that they'll price match. so lowest price guarantee. target has some exclusive
products with knee plan marcus. foot locker is offering exclusive new shoes so that's not arise deal, that's getting the special new shoes that are coming out. jcpenney is offering gift carts. the idea is to do something special that you can only get on black friday in these stores. >> we also have mobile friendly websites, as well. how are customers feeling about brand loyalty, how does a store or shop get customers to come into their store as opposed to anybody else's? >> with the mobile apps, you can compare prices across different stores. so people looking for a the lowest price will go there. however, some of the offerings are exclusive to one chaen or another and sometimes it's hard to compare against chains.
so there is some notion if you're guaranteed a low price and you think there will be a big assortment, that's the store you go to. >> we would assume the prices, the key determant, but i would think service, as well. >> service or special identities of different retailers. you it know what to expect at a walmart or target and if you're comfortable with that level of service, that's where you'll go. some people line up to go to mace he city's, so there is a lot of store loyal pi. >> barbara, thanks for joining us. happy thanksgiving. i think i can stay still that. now, talking about shoppers, courtney ray begeagan is out th.
you're at the mall at fairfield commons in dayton, ohio. was anybody there last night? >> yes. this mall actually opened at midnight and all of the store managers that we're talking to say they've been impressed with the turnout p. we'll show you what's going on here, but i understand that your guest was talking about how the internet has changed things somewhat. and that is true. black friday has lost some significance. but the traffic here is still really good and when we talk about what we saw overnight, we saw a lot of these retailers opening up their doors as early as 8:00, 9:00 p.m. dollar generals around the country were actually open as early as 7:00 a.m. the christmas creep is moving earlier and earlier. and this video comes in throughout the country. it does seem as if the chaos is a bit more controlled this year. those retailers letting in sometimes just 20 people at a time to make sure that there are no safety incidents per se. inventory from what we understand is pretty well
stocked. so there is not a real worry about shortages. and if that were even the case, a lot of the retailers are offering guarantees. if we run out of it, we'll give you a rain check and get to you by christmas. and again, going back to that online internet effect that we're seeing this year ibm says online sales up 18% over last year. that's fairly significant. and everyone that got tablets and ipads last year are using them this year to shop. page views loading at about 6 seconds. that's good news for retailers that have spent a lot of money investing in the speed and performance of those websites. tablet shopping up 23%. and you can kind of take a look at what we're seeing here. i'll ask the camera to just pan
this way. ross you'd never know that it's 5:30 in the morning here. it looks like a saturday afternoon. folks are awake and shopping. the food court is open. it if you want chili at 5:30 in the morning, you can get it. i'll ship it across the pond. so so far traffic is good, people are buying, but everything is pretty controlled. radio shack shoppers are buying a lot of bigger ticket items from what we're hearing. some of the employees there will work 23 straight hours. it will be a long day. >> i do find the idea of buying chili at this time of the morning slightly weird, courtney. if you've gone in at midnight or you're going in this morning at 5:00 in the morning, whatever it is, what extra discount are you getting that you're not going to get later in the day or tomorrow? >> what your guest suggested is
a lot of what we're seeing. the actual price may stay the same, but the ad ons will be different. for instance, at walmart, at 8:00 last night, they started door busters. at 10:00, they rolled out additional door busters. so if you were in line, you could get an ipad 2 for $399 plus a $75 walmart gift card. so that's not something that you can get online. so these stores are trying to offer incentives, a little something extra. so maybe those prices will stay fatherly rock bottom through the duration of the black friday weekend with some adjustments as the day goes on because they do want to incentivize shoppers to shop early. >> i presume everybody ate their turkey a little early then. i hope you had a good day, courtney. good to see you. >> thank you, ross. other things we're watching today, the mexican president calder ron is trying to change
mexico's name to mexico. the official name is the united statess of mexico. they established it in 1824 to try to emulate the big neighbor up to the north. mexicans have taken to twitter to mock the maname change. one person defeated it should be changed to fraud land as a joke. what we want to know is any country's name that you would like to to change and to what. let us know. firstname.lastname@example.org, at@cnbcwex,@ rosswestgate. we'll be in tell a vee with the latel aviv with the latest when we come back. can i still ship a gift in time for christmas? yeah, sure you can. great. where's your gift? uh... whew. [ male announcer ] break from the holiday stress. ship fedex express by december 22nd for christmas delivery.
a recap of the headlines. draghi defends plans for a banking supervise or saying the central bank is the best candidate for the job. germany's ifo business climate index rises above forecasts for november. and the eu wubudget battle rage on as they pail to reach a compromise. israeli gunfire has reportedly killed a palestinian along the gaza border.
stephanie gosk joining us. i don't know if you have anymore information about this, but if true, of course that would be the first incident since the cease fire. what's the latest there. >> >> it would be, ross. our team on the ground in gaza tells us this was a 20-year-old kid, he was with his friends, a bufshlg bunch of teenagers, they had gone into the no-go zone, a 1,000 foot buffer on the gaza side that they say they will shoot if anyone enters and it appear that's what happened, although right now the israeli defense forces are not saying that they know of anyone being killed there. our source in gaza is this young man's brother. so we're waiting to get some sort of confirmation on the israeli side of exactly what happened. this could be problematic for what is already a very delicate seat fire. and it's interesting here in this country, you have quite a mixed reaction as to the cease fire itself. this gaza, they have been
celebrating. here, not exactly. about 59% of the people, a majority in this country, said they wanted this offensive to go on further. they didn't want to end right away. they didn't being the jnidn't t done. a third of the people said they felt israeli troops should go in on the ground. we spent the day yesterday in the south, a place bombarded by rockets and we heard a similar sent chlt. a number of people tellings thaws they were very disappointed with netanyahu. yesterday good gaza, a national day of celebration. you saw people in the streets celebrating, they felt this was a victory for hamas, a sense of legitimacy amongst the government, a government not recognized by the united states. in fact the united states and europe consider it a trils organization. and they have been brought into
discussions with egypt and other major players in the world and region and they feel this has given them the legitimacy that they deserve. >> stephanie, thanks for that from tel aviv. mario draghi says building an overitem body around the ecb is the most practical solution. speaking at the euro finance conference, he said there needs to an legal basis for banking supervision. business sentiment in germany has risen a little bit more than expected quelling some fears that the powerhouse of the eurozone economy may be suffering from the impact of the crisis. its first increase in eight months. just over 101.4. in the united states, a half day of trading today post the thanksgiving holiday. is the dow due for a santa
rally? we'll talk about it when we come back. [ female announcer ] the power to become a better investor has gone mobile. with features like scanning a barcode to get detailed stock quotes to voice recognition. e-trade leads the way in wherever, whenever investing. download the ultimate in mobile investing apps, free, at e-trade.
this is the pursuit of perfection. walmart, organizers upset over working conditions, plan protests at 1,000 u.s. stores. the group called our walmart is seeking better pay and benefits. walmart's filed a complaint last week with the national labor relations board, it says the group is seeking to disresuupt business. walmart's stock in frankfurt today just down about a quarter of a percent. u.s. postal service plans to test same day package delivery in big cities. the service which will start next month will initially be offered in san francisco. pricing habit been announced. the postal service is working
out agreements with eight to ten large retail chains. customers would have until 3:00 p.m. to place and online order and then postal workers will pick up the items and deliver them to your doorstep between 4:00 and 8:00 p.m. arregentina will appeal a u.s. court ruling over unpaid debt. on wednesday a federal judge in new york ordered argentina to pay in full everything it owes to several u.s. investment funds. the judge also barred the country from paying other bond holders until will bill is paid. argentina's economics minister says he's prepared to at that time case to the u.s. supreme court. it's a shortened trading day. u.s. futures are indicating an upward start. dow up 18. joining us, dennis gartman. i hope you had a great day
yesterday. appreciate you joining us first thick this morni thing thois morning. european stocks in line for their best week in about a month. do you think gains are justified? >> i think gains are justified. balance sheets are in good condition. probably the best in decades. even consumer balance sheets are doing well. the balance sheets in europe are a bit more strained than they are here. but i think the psychology of the global equity market is stronger than we thought. i think that we've seen a great deem of bearishness. far too much psychology on the bearish side. far too many people probably short, far too many people underinvested. and likely we'll get a bounce at least for the end of the year. so i turned bullish on stocks the other day. missed buying them. tried to get too greedy in the s&p futures. but the time to be short has passed. the time to be long lies ahead
of us. >> how much of that might be inspired or not by political discussions that will start in earnest on the fiscal cliff next week? >> i think a lot of that is predicated upon the beginning of talks. and when you listen to the sherpas, there is clearly an intention of getting something done of consequence. congress knows we're running out of time in order to accomplish a task. and i think they'll get it done. so there is no question a good deal of the bounce we're getting in equities is predicated upon better political environment in washington. let's hope it gets accomplished. you can never be too certain what congress may do, but i think in this instance they intend to do if not the right thing, at least a better thing. >> how will that reflect on treasure irys? it's been hard to sort of -- a hard trade trying to be short of
treasuries. and i'm guessing it will be hard even in the future. >> it's been awful to try to be short. every smartful low and woman you you know keeps trying to sell the bond market short and it keeps blowing up in their face. similar to the jgb in japan. proved to be a very unprofitable trade. and there will be a time to sell the u.s. bond market short, but i'm not sure that time is now upon us. >> you mentioned equities. we didn't have the best earnings season. i was talking to a gentleman from private bank says we have cooperates right now biggest share of gdp as they'll get. global economy is weak.
>> benefit is we are still a great island and so much of the united states economy is dependent upon the united states. so little of our business goes abroad. it's really extraordinary in the modern world how little we do export and how parochial is our scope. europe could have terrible times and europe is indeed having terrible times, but still the states are doing reasonably well. and perhaps the best thing, the worst of housing seems to be behind us. >> we'll get housing data next week, as well. dennis, thanks for that. we appreciate your time this morning. that's it for today. thanks for watching. coming up next, "squawk box."
let the shopping begin. an annual tradition beginning even earlier than normal this year. millions of americans skipping pie to hit stores looking for holiday bargains. adventure continuing into the early hours of the morning. it is black friday fishiloffici and "squawk box" begins right now. happy post-thanksgiving. good morning, everybody. welcome to "squawk box." i hope you got your fill of turkey yesterday. i'm becky quick along with andrew ross sorkin and