tv Worldwide Exchange CNBC November 26, 2012 4:00am-6:00am EST
. this is today's word wise exchange. here are the headlines. france's finance minister insists europe is close to a deal on greece as ministers arrive for their latest summit in brussels. catalonia has pushed for independence. and a maim blow for the man fossa session. and two bank newcomers say the central bank says it has to do more to show it's serious about stimulating growth. and in the u.s., consumers filled up their shopping carts. early estimates show sales up 13% over the lost holiday weekend.
welcome to the start of a fresh trading week. kelly will be back tomorrow. catalonia voters have handed the majority to the separatists, but not necessarily the ones you thought. we'll assess the impact. and investors worry among protests over the egyptian president's attempt to increase his power base. and how much would it cost you to buy all items in the song 12 days of christmas? pnc wealth management will tell us why it's a lot more than you might think. plus shoppers hitting the net today, the year's biggest day for online purchases.
we'll asset how much cash shoppers have left over after black friday's billion dollar be in an sa. bonanza. we have some confident data out of italy. november consumer confidence 84.8. that is a record low. we've had protests, as well. they're gathering in brussels to try to hammer out a deal on the greek deficit. prime minister says they're cle. politicians are considering a debt forgiveness program but could see talso reaching agreement on a framework for the
planned eurozone banking union. speaking to the ft, the eu internal markets commissioner said ministers must meet a december deadline in order to placate financial markets. and this as in spain voters in cat take loan i can't giving a victory to the separatist party, but the region's president lost ground. so what does it mean for the push for independence and the deficit reduction plans? julia is in barcelona for us. what does it all mean? >> it's being seen as broadly positive because it weekens his push for independence in the region right now. but the overriding message is that two thirds of the people that voted here voted for pro nationalist or separationist parties here. and this is a sentiment that's been growing over a number of
years. and the president has to try to align himselves with other parties bearing two key facts, where does he take the push for a referendum, how does that influence his negotiations with the central government. and then the second, a more crucial point, this region has to negotiate a budget for 2013. and the risk is that a party that he aligns with that perhaps is in the same views in terms of a referendum is not going to be happy to sign off on further austerity members and cuts. so i think the overriding point is that right now the politics, the political situation here, is not yet stable and we have to see how this will play out, which irrespective of whether a weakened position now in negotiations with the central government here in spain, it's still is going to be a headache for the prime minister. ultimately, though, does it influence his decision on the question for aid, most leftdy not.
definitely not. >> what does it mean for funding for next year? >> they make the point that they give over around 16 billion euros to the spanish central government. they received this year 5 billion in aid so they'll argue that doesn't work out for them, but ultimately they rely on spain and we can't get away from that fact. >> okay. for now thank you very much. what are the implications for rajoy and the request for bailout? >> well, i think i agree with with what julia said. i think that you have to interpret these elections in two ways. on one side, you have the independent versus unionist vote. and in that way, i think you can
safely say there has for the been a great deal of change in the sense that the big push towards pro independence parties are as asked for didn't happen. on the other side, you can clearly say that in the left versus right, there has been just a move towards the left. and in particular with parties towards pushed against austerity cuts. so i think the way to on interpret that is that it will be hard for an independence referendum, although he has already announced he will do so. and he had to do so ban he has always announced that he will do this whatever results come out of of the elections.
but to do so, he will have to form a government with the left erc party, which he's fiercely against austerity. so i think that for rajoy, all this means that probably he is strengthened in the and itity independent side of the story, but also he will find it very hard to push further austerity that is needed to bring budget deficits under control in the region. >> do we have any idea what time scale? if borrowing costs stay where at the are, when might they go for assistance? at the moment, market pressure won't force them. >> yeah, i think at the end that's the reason why rajoy is not asking for a bailout is that
signing up for an austerity plan with the deficit targets that they have now would be almost the side for help because the deficit this year will be pretty much higher than the target 6 6.3%. to go to 7% which is the target for next year which mean very strong austerity. so i think rajoy will try to use just time here to basically negotiate soft deficit targets and i think that he will not ask for help before the markets push spain into that. and to go back to your question, i think in the first quarter of next year when spain will have to issue substantially more debt than is issuing now.
>> they're now seriously talking about debt forgiveness for greece. what are the implications of that for everyone else who might be in the assistance program? >> well, of course, every time you make a decision on greece, as much as european leaders try to tell us that greece is a particular case, it will have some implications for the others. and that's i think one of the many reasons why leaders are resisting this. i think that unfortunately there is no way out expect for another restructuring in greece. levels are simply too high. i think at the end it will have to come to that, but i think that it will not happen before the german elections. >> that is the political fly in the ointment, is it? we just got to get through to the end of, what, is it autumn
next year is the elections? >> yes, indeed. >> are we just going to hobble along? >> from now until the german elections? i think that it will be another six, accept months off kicking the can p. i think they will agree to the transfers to greece, but it may also be that the imf pulls out because for the imf to deliver more funds to greece, they need to on ensure the sustain ability of the plan. clearly for them, this is not happening. and the debt sustainability as of now not insured.
i do think end at the end some form of agreement with light forgiveness of the extension, the terms, none of this will be enough to put greece under a sound path. so i think that this will not seize to be an issue until we have a serious restructuring of the greek debt. >> okay. thanks for that. have a good week. edward barack says he's quitting political life. he will remain defense chief until after the next set of elections. right now it's time for today's edition of the global markets report.
european stocks having a pretty good week last week we are weighted to the down side after that good week. dean klein ye 7:2 at the moment, but not a bad week at all. ftse up nearly 4% last week, up 5% for the dax, 5.6% for the cac. ftse down a third, spanish yields pretty low reading. well away i suppose from the 6% mark is what i'm saying. ten year bund yields 1.4 p. we've seen the dollar index just down on a three week low at the moment. plenty of focus on yen.
dollar-yen 81.98. pulling away from the 7 1/2 month high. aussie dollar back over 1.04. sterling-dollar just on the 1.60 marks as you can see. that's where we stand in europe. let's check in on the asian trading session for the first time this week. >> mixed trade here in asia. investors cautious ahead of the eurozone finance ministers meeting. but the nikkei continued to push higher as exporters gained on the yen's weakness. troubled electronics firm surged 17% to a two month high after shareholders approved a $2.4 billion bailout plan. in china, the shanghai composite finished in the red.
hong kong also down despite a good debut. in south korea, samsung tumbled 2.3% after apple added more products to the patent lawsuit. and finally australia markets closed up by a quarter percent thanks to gains in the commodity space. back to you, ross. >> thanks for now. the u.s. power ball jackpot has jumped to a record $425 million. this for wednesday's draw. nobody won last weekend. the top prize could go well above that amount depending on how many people buy the $2 ticket. power ball earlier this year reached a record $556 million. now, unlike in the uk, you don't have to pay tax i think on your winnings in the u.s. but there is also only a one in 176 million chance of winning. but what would you do if you did
it's cyber monday and shoppers are expected to spend more than $1.5 billion. >> from the moment you check out at amazon.com, the prz begins. your item is picked, sorded, packed and shipped. this is what the holidays look like here at amazon. to give you perspective, this is just one of 40 fulfillment centers across the country packed with thousands of items in time for the holiday rush. and they'll need them. last cyber monday, they sold
more than 200 items per second. one glance at the shelves and it seems work hes put stuff wherever they can find space. >> it helps associates where they don't have to worry about putting things. >> so wherever there is space, there will be product. gr and it doesn't matter cha is sitting next to what. >> the interesting part comes with the picking. workers will physically pick up every item per order and those items could be anywhere. >> so is this your exercise for the day? >> definitely exercise. you get your cardio aund toning in your legs. >> she may cover several miles a day sending products off to be packed and shipped. she says it's starting to feel a lot like christmas. >> definitely more picks, more orders are coming in, more numbers definitely. more energy. >> as the workload increases, so does the stress. >> do you ever dream about work?
>> i have dreamt about work, yes. i've dremp about picking items. >> sometimes items are simply too far apart to walk. >> this is the biggest fulfillment center. it's the equivalent of 28 football fields. which explains why some employees need tricycles to get around. >> with this year's holiday season expected to be their biggest one yet, amazon has brought in 50,000 additional workers. >> have fun, work hard. >> and online race that depends on the human touch to fulfill those holiday wishes. diana al via air, nbc news, phoenix. >> and we'll have plenty more coverage later on the show. meanwhile americans were out shopping early and on which this weekend. the national retail federation says an estimated 139.4 million consumers hit the stores or shopped online between thursday
and sunday. they spent an average $423 for a total of 59.1 billion, up nearly 13% from 2011. com score says online sales stopped $1 billion for the first time on black friday. president obama even got in on the holiday shopping action. he visited an independent bookstore in virginia on small business saturday after resulting his list on his blackberry you can the president bought 15 children's books as gifts. policy meeting gave markets more reason to expect monetary easing from the central bank. two of the newcomers said the boj should reinforce its commitment to policy easing by saying it will continue an ultra easy policy.
he also said inflation has the potential to k3 seed 1% if tokyo and private sector efforts bear fruit. we've seen euro-yen near 7 1/2 month highs. same for dollar-yen, as well. what are the prospects for the yen to weaken further bearing in mind there must be a lot in the price. p. >> i do think we've seen a lot priced into the dollar-yen at the moment. it's really been on the rhetoric that's coming into the laekelec. this week he said, we saw some backtracking in the main and opposition party and weren't so aggressive when it came to easing. they said they let the central bank set their own goals and carry out as they will how they want to maintain those. and so i don't think really we will get this kind of aggressive
monetary policy that opposition leaders were talking about. >> which would mean the run in the yen will come to an end. >> yeah, i definitely think we'll see a stronger yen coming through. i don't think we will see this massive drive on central bank easing. and even if we do, i don't know how much of a fact that would have. there is a complete lack of credit demand in japan and up they tackle this problem, then deflation will continue to see a higher yen. >> so it won't matter if we do get a change of government and they set a 3% inflation target. >> i think setting a 3% inflation target is one thing. using it is completely different.
we're entering a deflationary time and in the japanese economy which is evident to a lot of fundamentals we're seeing. and i think it will cause levels to drop further. >> they could actually just do old fashioned money printing. just put more bank notes and -- instead of buying government debt, they could do it the old fashioned way. >> that is definitely an option. i think they'll be trying every resource possible. i think there is just no demand for credit. you can flood the market, but who is there to demand it. >> so the yen strength is overdone. what does that mean for some of the other cost rates looking at euro-dollar now firmly in this
range. is that in place for a while? >> i think we've seen a lot of range shading at the moment even in terms of the election, we see no reaction in euro-dollar. i do think we'll remain range trading right up up until the end of this quarter. the omt policy is really underpinned euro u.s. and created a floor under this currency. >> okay. good to see you. thanks for that. the financial services authority has hit ubs with a 27.9 million pound fine for systems and control failings related to its $2.3 billion trading loss uncovered last year. two counts of fraud and sentenced to seven years in prison. they cut the fine from 42.4 because of an early session with
the swiss bank. european buyout firm allegedly competing to buy a 50% stake in aston martin. the owner has denied. meanwhile after the break, insurer swiss re says sandy caused more than $1 billion in claims. more details when we come back. i always wait until the last minute. can i still ship a gift in time for christmas? yeah, sure you can. great. where's your gift? uh... whew. [ male announcer ] break from the holiday stress. ship fedex express by december 22nd for christmas delivery.
france's finance minister insists europe is close to a deal on greece as ministers arrive for the latest sun mitt in brussels. catalonia's push for independence deals a major blow for the president's plans for secession. and the figure for hurricane sandy may rise. plus in the united states, consumers filled up their shopping cart and then kept coming back for more.
european stocks after a good week last week, strong gains. cac 40 down half percent. a little weaker for the ibex. yields fairly steady. spanish 5.65 and kircurrency dollar, we hit the one month high in euro-dollar on friday. drar yen also off its 7 1/2 month highs, as well. over in hong kong, the amount investors had a strong appetite for the listing. shares up 16% before pulling back a little towards the end of the market close. also over the weekend, property
firm said it will postpone its plan to raise $800 million by the listing of its hospitality unit in hong kong. they didn't explain why, but last week said it was considering other options for the unit's assets. the exchange has plans to open up business it overseas plays and reduce reliance on chinese equity listings. why do they want less chinese listings? >> well, i think pra dwchlt a like some of the worldwide companies gets ex eyeball as we all know in the past couple years, many of the chinese state owned companies dominated local hong kong stock markets. it's also the listing rule
because only hong kong, only mainland china, cayman island and just four all together places, companies, can be listed in hong kong according to the listing rules. but actually they have loosened already the rules over a couple of years as we can see from russia, canada, u.s. and most countries in europe. so they want those companies to be listed in hong kong, not just those state own company to boost the stock market. >> will they just make it easier? >> definitely easier to list it in hong kong, but still they need to fulfill some of the listing requirements such as if you want to be listed in the main board, there is a three
test you need to pass. if not, only some of the resources comes, some of the restriction. but overall why notally speaking, some of the worldwide company like prada, they're doing quite well. so i think this is one of the growth generating points. >> picc might be on its way. what will happen to that? >> as you said, the ipo market is doing well recently. up 12%. one of the casual dining chain prettier. and picc will be the biggest ipo in hong kong this year. it's priced reasonably at 1.2 to
1.5 in price. but we can't compare to its peer because their major business is not life business. they focus more on casualty and property. i think they will be okay. and i do recommend investor to subscribe. but don't expect huge up side on the first debut because like those state owned companies and in the past like no matter those chinese state owned banks or life insurance company, first day of trading just a little bit up side. not huge. so long term investor this point is good, but short term trading, no good. >> the london metal exchange, will that influence the sort of firms that might come and list? >> yes, i think so.
comcor listed a year ago and very successful case. i think this purchase maybe is not very good purchase because the valuation is quite high and now forward.e is more than 30 times. so highest valuation stock can change in the world. but i think most of the resources company may -- can list in hong kong, go through the chapter 18. so more resources company will come to hong kong to list. >> good to see you. have a good evening there in hong kong. >> thank you. >> samsung says it's taking measures to improve working conditions. sher sherry kank has more details. >> that's right, the announcement comes just two months after it conducted an audit of more than 100 suppliers
in china. this was prompted by a labor rights group claim that there was child labor abuse, but samsung denied the allegations. but it says it did not find in-automatic practices and fines netted out for workers for being late or absent. so they will include a new hiring process and a promise that the contracts with any suppliers that use child labor will be terminated. and the company added that it will ensure the independence of the audits through a third party audit program. ross, back to you. >> that's the latest on samsung. meanwhile a reminder of the asian agenda tomorrow. japanese voters will get a chance to hear opposition party leader growth strategy. at the same time the ruling dpj is expected to announce it
campaign pledges roughly three weeks before the election. over in china, we'll get october industrial profit figures and in hong kong, earnings numbers. here in europe, swiss re said it expects claims from hurricane sandy to rack up to $900 million. the reinsurance giant said power outages, disruption to transportation lines, another damage to infrastructure make recovery efforts pretty difficult. overall losses from last month's hurricane damage are estimated to be around $20 billion for the entire market. joining us for more, carolyn roth. are they in the ballpark for analysts or more or less? >> analysts were looking for a number of around $500 million. so that $900 million figure that's definitely very high. in terms of the economic insurer
impact between $20 billion and $25 billion, yes, that's definitely in line with what risk modelers have already come out with. so that's not a huge surprise. if we take a look at share price reaction, swiss re is one of the biggest decliners off by 1.5%, so investors may not like the news per se, but i've been reading through a couple of analyst notes an analysts say it's not that bad because the dividend is still safe. the company still has a very strong capital position. and there's always a silver lining to these massive natural catastrophes because in the renewal season specifically in january, march and july, we're expecting higher rates or higher prices to be pushed through by the reinsurer. so that could be higher profit, higher margins going forward for the likes of swiss re. but, yes, it is true that there is a lot of uncertainty attached to the $900 million figure because it could still be
revised up werds or downwards because it's difficult to assess the real damage on the ground because of the power outages and disruptions to transport. >> okay. thanks for that. we'll see what the rest of the industry has to say. but it's giving us a guide. mohamed morsi is to meet to halt violent protests. here's the latest from cairo. >> for a second straight day, egypt stock market has opened in a downward spiral followed by a decree by are morsi that has plunged the country into political turmoil. on the streets for a fifth straight day, there have been clashes between pro morsi supporters and his opponents. here in the capital, one of the victims is being laid to rest
after he was killed by security officials. the anger stems from a decree issued on thursday gives morsi powers that are unchecked. he essentially has the authority to legislate and that is not subject to any type of judicial review pl opponents say it amounts to a dinlg at a time tore ship and this is what they fought against two years ago. but supporters say he must take these drastic measures in order to ram home reforms being blocked that have hijacked egypt's judiciary. ross. >> all right. latest from cry row. meanwhile israeli defense minister barack has resigned, a surprise move ahead of the general election. he is going to stay on until the next administration is in place. and representatives from nearly
200 nations begin climate matt talks. they'll try to negotiate a new deal but you not hopeful it will be reached. and the international high rise award 2020 making it the first australian development to do so. matthew taylor's been taking a look at what makes the building just so special. >> it stands tall and proud on the sydney skyline. one of the newest office towers and one of the greenest. p. >> this is sydney's first six star building in a high rise context and that is world's best practice. >> widely seen as the next generation of skyscrapers, standing 27 stories tall, it was officially opened by the prime minister last year. occupying a busy corner in the
central business district, from the out seed, the building may not appear much different to others nearby, but step inside and it's clear this power isn't like the others. this atrium is ventilated with natural air flow, powered in part by these solar panels. >> we extract sewage from the city mines. we have a very large recycling plant on site. 90% of the water consumption is recycled. >> the tower also posts the tallest trees in sydney perched atop the terrace. the building faces north and takes advantage of the sun's elliptical movement with that he is blinds tilting and retracting at specific intervals during the day to take the proesh off the internal cooling an heating system. it may be a model for green innovation. australia, kran businesses in general are rapidly moving towards a greener cleaner
future. >> you're seeing the development of projects, you're seeing buildings at very important time in this country. >> and it's not just government policies which is prompting change. in fact one expert on the shift to greener technology says there's a growing change in attitudes across the corporate sector. >> there are benefits here to be gained and how do we stretch that further. i think with a we'hat we'll fin businesses starting to ask themselves how do we get business benefit and competitive advantage out of leveraging off the work we've already done. >> this building houses a prominent law firm and while it may be the first of its kind in sydney, it's unlikely to be alone for long with planning similar inclusions in newer buildings. matthew taylor, cnbc, sydney.
a study warns britain could score its own goal because of bureaucratic hurdles. louisa spoke to the international advisory panel and asked about the findings of the report. >> the findings are around the fact that the world is changing, the landscape has changed. places that used to be attractive before maybe aren't so attractive now. northern europe is still attractive, southern europe is a let's not go there. the bric companies, they're almost seen as safe havens now. but some of the lessons are there are issues, there are local customs and cultures that may make it difficult.
there is going to be ethical question marks and krupg. there may be currency exposures. and i think the lessons for the smes are really if you can look at that list of reasons why not to and persuade yourself you better stay at home. what the economy ought to be saying is you can't stay at home, you have to look abroad. the conclusions this year are there is not a flight to safety, take your business to the safe are havens, not so much the riskier havens. to me the issues are businesses need to understand there are difficulties, but they shouldn't give up. critical things to get right are choose where you go, did your research thoroughly. which regions, which cities are your product services going to work there. and take your time, work out the logical process to get yourself there. and the most important element, nearly half of the responders said what we have to get right is things on the ground.
your management on the ground, people on the gruound, supply chain on the ground. >> we're still kind of in the financial crisis. stim in a sticky spot. but even so, you're still saying that smes are still willing to look abroad. >> 82% of the responders are more optimistic about their foreign investment than they would have been three years ago and over 75% are very confident or satisfactory confident they'll make a success of it. i think the issues about costs for the smis are the most relevant. it does cost money to put people on the grounds, but the way to go become this is to find out what he can get subsidized. who can you take advice from as to how to find the low cost market entry proposition. you can test the water by going
on trade missions. what can kti did for you. i'm surprised how few businesses ask what can you do to help me secure this funding because they have a concern about foreign currency and exchange and credit risk. >> and one thing smes looking abroad for find opportunity or profit. the other issue is whether smes whether they see britain as a place that is open and welcoming to do business, as well. >> open and welcoming. we are relatively perceived as full of red tape. but, no, we still are one of the prop 7 destinations out of various countries.
with that europe i think are the preferred locations. obviously u.s. is the most attractive location. and as i explained, particularly china and india are very attractive and now perceived as safer locations than before. >> and just a reminder did the trade link series, it's every monday 10:50 cet. how the financial crisis is affecting global trade and how you do business around the world. go to tradelinks.cnbc.com. elsewhere in the u.s., congress returns from a thanksgiving break he with talks to resolve the fiscal cliff. with no action by lawmakers and president obama, around 600 billion in tax hikes a and spending cuts would take effect in january. republicans and democrats are still in odds over the cause to raise taxes on the wealthiest and cutting on programs like medicare. but both sides saying they're willing to compromise. >> you have to raise additional
revenues. there are ways of doing that. >> republicans always put revenue on the table. democrats always promise to cut spending. we never cut spending. what i'm looking for is more revenue for entitlement reform. >> the house speaker has called for a short term fix to overt the fiscal cliff so congress can work on a bigger deal in 2013. they naed to cut out a package that includes revenue hikes and spending cuts by the end of the year. >> americans have been out shopping early and often. almost 140 million kmers hit the stores or shopped online between thursday and sunday. that's up 6% from last year. >> almost a quarter billion shoppers will have been online
or in stores. shopping started earlier than ever and in spite of the employee protests, the early opening paid off. according to the national retail federation, more than 35 million shopped on thanksgiving. black friday was big, too, 89 million braved the crowds in search of those hard to beat par begins. up from 86 million last year. the average shopper spent $423 this week he said, up from $398 last year, for a total of 59.1 billion. it's not just the store seeing the boom for the first time, online spending topped $1 billion. well before cyber monday. also expected to break records. >> didn't have to get off the couch. easier shopping. >> but while shoppers were out
in force this holiday weekend, not everyone is spending freely. between now and christmas, many shoppers report they will be more cautious, concerned about the economy and the gridlock in congress over the fiscal cliff. >> we'll talk more about that in the next hour. also still to come, how much will you have to fork over to buy your true love all the items in the famous 12 days of christmas song? we'll break down the am christmas price index. plus you have to be in to win it. power ball jackpot has jumped to a record $425 million for wednesday's drawing. the top prize depends of course how many people buy the $2 tickets. power ball is available in 40 u.s. states and washington, d.c. earlier this year, the mega millions lottery reached a record $656 million. so let us know what you would do. there's a one in 176 million chance of winning. e-mail us. john has written into say i would purchase the spanish
formula one teammate and a cancer radio unit. a good idea. if you've got any thoughts, e-mail us firstname.lastname@example.org. at cnbc weks or direct to m me, @rosswestgate. after the break, a ble to the one group pushing mosts for a session. we'll have the latest from barcelona. and we'll show you where we stand with european stocks at the moment. and after good gains last week, just slightly softer today. the ftse 100 remember up 3.5% last week. just down half a percent for the ftse. we did see italian consumer confidence fall to an all-time low earlier this morning. spanish yields are slightly higher.
guilt yields and bund yields just slightly lower. currently markets, dollar index down at a three week low this morning. two new members of the bank of japan come position out and saying we should do more for inflation. stronger easing commitment is the way they put it. sterling-dollar as well pretty steady. and just a reminder in the banking sector, financial services authority has hit ubs with a 27.9 million pound fine for systems and control failings. this all related to its $2.3 billion trading loss covered
last year. convicted for two counts of fraud and he'll be in prison for seven years. also in financial centers, night capital is in talks with at least two firms to possibly sell its market making operations in an internal e-mail, the c even o down played the talks. we'll take a short break. more worldwide exchange when we come back. can i help you? i heard you guys can ship ground for less than the ups store. that's right. i've learned the only way to get a holiday deal is to camp out. you know we've been open all night. is this a trick to get my spot? [ male announcer ] break from the holiday stress. save on ground shipping at fedex office.
nearly 13% over the holiday weekend. it's the start of a new trading week. hope you're joining us state side. surprisingly strong gains last week. the dow up 3%. nasdaq comes positive it up 4.345%. right now we are just indicated for a downward start at the moment. . we have the dow currently some, what, 60 points below fair value. the nasdaq is some 12 points below fair value and the s&p about 9 below. follows a softer start for the week. but again pretty good gains. global 300 is flat, but nearly 4% gains for the ftse, 5 plus
for the cac 40. dollar index down at a three week low. dollar-yen justs off the 7 1/2 month highs at 82. he we saw two new bank of japan newcomers saying there is a need for stronger need and easing. euro-dollar a month high on friday. just off that at the moment. bund markets, pretty steady. italian consumer confidence today coming in at a lowest point on record. there have been protests over the weekend, as well, of the government's latest austerity measures. the region's president lost ground, so has that has called
in to question cat taalonicatal for independence. julia chatterley. >> the main party here losing ground at the election yesterday on the face of it seen as positive because it weakens his bid for independence. taking catalonia away from spain. but i think the key takeaway from the election is that actually two thirds of the people that voted actually voted for proceed national list parties. this is a money item building over a number of years and my view from being here is that this sentiment isn't actually going away. what it's left is a very fragmented political system and now this party has to try to align with others bearing in mind two key focuses, the first where does it take this bid for independence, and the second, how do they sign off on a budget for next year because a party that might support a referendum bid for independence isn't necessarily going to be happy to sign off on austerity measures.
the key point is that politically right now this region isn't stable and that will have enough of an impact on economics and that will be an ultimate headache for prime minister rajoy. ultimately, though, does this impact his bid for assistance. i don't think it does, but i think it is a region to watch. ross, back to you. >> joining us for more, political analyst at ihs. thanks for joining us. a lot of people vote to go have an independent inside for catalonia. but actually the fact that they didn't vote for mr. blass, does that mean the movement has been slowed down? >> come think so. i think on the contrary the election result could indicate movement for independence could speed up. and that's because many voters saw message for independence
maybe with a a bit ambiguous and not as strong as they wished. so that's why they voted or opted for more hard line nationalist, pushing to go for the full road and independence. >> yeah, but he's got to start finding allies. so does that make it harder in the short term? >> well, he will most definitely try to form coalition with the hard line parties and possibly he will get support for other pro national list parties. and this will cause a little bit of uncertainty because the visions differ. so puts them on a collision course. >> what are the implications as
far as you see it for funding for the region? the central government is trying to make sure that the regions have to save money because the government doesn't have the money to give them. >> catalonia depends at the moment on funding from the central government because it is one of the richest regions in spain, but actually one of the most indebted at the moment. so if it was pushing for in insi independence, it wouldn't be sending good message out. and it can't afford independence at the moment. >> what does it mean in terms of the spanish xwechlt at some point asking for assistance? clearly at the moment they can borrow rate which is are just about affordable for them. >> yes, at the moment, that's right. and spanish government will use this as one of the biggest negotiating point and preventing catalonia for seeking not only
independence, but also greater fiscal in the future. >> so what do you think about the madrid government's timing on how long they can go without asking for eu financial assistance? >> at the moment our position is that spain is more stable in financial environment and we do not see spain as seeking full bailout. going beyond 2012, next year we have lots of issues arising such as about whether regions will be available to hit their targets, whether regions will be forced to ask for more funding. but spain overall will be able to hit the fiscal targets which they set. so 2013 brings much more instability which can result in asking for precautionary
bailout. how it will defend out depends on what is happening in eurozone as a whole. >> and how much of that depends on the german elections? >> well, german elections will have quite a big say in the whole picture, not only on spain, but also also on greece. p so a lot of things will become clearer after this preliminary pressure will be over. >> trouble is we have to wait until the autumn for the german elections. anyway, thanks very much for that. officials from the imf are in brussels again today. should have just moved in. they'll try to hammer a deal to reducing the greek deficit and releasing the next tranche of aid. french minister says they're close to deal amid suggestions in the german press that politicians are considering a
debt forgiveness program. you heard that right. debt forgiveness that good see athens's debt cut by 2015. at the same time, also telling the finance ministers to put a viable flame work on a banking union. he says ministers must meet a december deadline in order to pl placate fragile financial markets. still to come, swiss re says its hurricane sandy related claims will hit almost $1 billion. more details when we come back. can i help you? i heard you guys can ship ground for less than the ups store. that's right. i've learned the only way to get a holiday deal is to camp out. you know we've been open all night. is this a trick to get my spot? [ male announcer ] break from the holiday stress. save on ground shipping at fedex office.
analysts had thought? >> it's definitely higher than what analysts had been expecting. we were looking for a number in the mid triple millions. so, yes, $900 million, that's a very high number. at the same time, though, analysts have been speaking out this morning and they say, look, the dividend is still very safe at the same time, the capital position is re strong, and, ross, there is always that silver lining after these massive natural catastrophes because it does raise the 3r prospect of higher prices. when we talked to the ceo of swiss re, they said, yes, it is possible sandy will actually have a positive impact on the renewal season. at the same time, swiss re also said that there is a high degree of uncertainty attached to the claims estimate of $900 million because they say that the assessment of the losses is very, very difficult on the ground. that's because of disruptions to travel, power outages, but
overall the insurance industry will take a hit between $20 billion and $25 billion and that looks to be in line with expectations. swiss re shares this morning are underperforming the broader market, down by 1.3%. ross. >> all right. thanks for that. we'll see what it means for other reinsurers, as well. ubs has been hit with a near 30 million pound fine for systems and control failings all related to the trading loss uncovered last year. former ubs trader convicted of two counts of fraud and sentenced to seven years in prison for carrying out the unauthorized trades. ft supggests barclays is being pressured to spin off the investment division. it also admits most investors like the business because it adds stability. so still to come on the show,
the 7 1/2 month high of 82.8 # we hit last week. and sterling-dollar steady at 1.60. it's all about online. cyber monday the biggest day of the year for online retailers. this year shoppers expected to spend more than $1.5 billion. that's according to com score. so what does it mean for amazon? diana got an inside look. >> from the moment you check out at amazon.com, the process begins. your item is picked, sorted, packed, and shipped. >> sorry about that, we seem to have lost a bit of sound. joining us is more is simon jackson. thanks for joining us --
>> one glance at the shelves and it seems workers -- >> we're back. there we go. having lost it, she comes back. biggest day of the year online. what particular problems does that provide? >> i think the main problem is where there is a big opportunity for retailers to christmas period. and also a great opportunity for cyber criminals. particularly in the lead up to christmas, what we're seeing is a lot of christmas specials we found just this morning that there are 88 suspect listings around the world. so of course from a consumer's per spec taf, they can get duped into buying not the real thing. >> you're going online for convenience and you're hoping to get it cheaper.thing. >> you're going online for convenience and you're hoping to get it cheaper.into buying not .
>> you're going online for convenience and you're hoping to get it cheaper. here's a site, 20%, 30% cheaper. how do you know that you're buying from a reputable site and what you're getting is the real deal in. >> first of all,ing for for what you think is a reputable site. once you're there, there are some very sophisticated counterfeit sites. the biggest possible indicator you you can have is price. so if it appears to be too good to be true, it probably is. so use your common sense. if it doesn't look right, if you're paying less than half the price that you'd expect to pay on the high street, then beware. >> and what about businesses? >> what we do, my company, is we protect consumer brands which in turn protects customers from being distorted or buying counterfeit goods. so we troll the web and detect the don't ter fit sites for people who are pretending to be
a consumer brand when they're actually not. what we do is we take down those sites so that consumers are safer when they start their christmas shopping. >> we talked about how many more people are online this year. what are you hearing in the sense of the continued growth or pace? >> it's huge. so 1 billion was the 2010 mark for cyber monday. last year, it was 1.5 billion. >> where is that in -- >> in the states. and this year we're expecting it to be 2 billion. and part of the reason for that is that people showrooming, will is the latest buzz word. it's when you go out on a friday, you look at everything in the store and then you come in on monday to buy the goods. what we're actually also finding that 50% cyber monday shopping is happening at work. so beware workers of unproductive time on cyber monday. >> so i would ask you another question, but i'm trying to find a new set of golf clubs.
no. that sort of thing. that's obviously damaging productive presumably in the workplace. >> i think so. it's a tongue in cheek comment, but people are spending a lot more time shopping and in particular actually we're seeing a huge increase in mobile. so there are 13 million more hand sets out there than they were this time last year. mobile has gone up by 200%. >> are people actually buying on the mobile, are they sort of searching on the mobile? >> they're searching. but for the first time this christmas trading period, over 10% people will actually make their performs online on a mobile. and that is partly driven by tablets. tablet is a mobile. so it's easier to shop online.
>>. >> so you try the garment in the store, like it, and then buy on line? >> i think right now they're checking prices. but certainly the cyber criminals are actually moving more toward mobile than they are toward computers. >> simon, good to see you. thanks for that. let's get back to that report. the inside look at amazon's biggest hub. >> from the moment you check out, the process begins. your item is picked, sorted, and
packed and shipped. this is just one of 40 centers across the country packed with thousands of items in time for the holiday rush. and they'll need them. last cyber monday they sold more than 200 items per second. one glance and it seems workers put stuff wherever they can find space. that's exactly how it works. wherever there is space, there will be product? >> and it doesn't matter what is sitting next to what. >> the interests part comes with the picking. workers will physically pick up every sight per order and those items could be anywhere. >> so is this your exercise for the day? >> it's definitely exercise. you get your cardio. and you get your toning in your legs going up and down the stairs. >> jamie may cover several miles
a day. picking ro dwukts, scanning them and sending them off to be packed and shipped. she says it's starting to feel a lot like christmas. >> definitely more picks, who are orders coming in, more numbers definitely. more energy. >> as the workload increases, so does the stress. >> do you ever dream about work? >> i have dreamt about work, yes. this is a amazon's biggest full fillment center. it's the equivalent of 28 football fields. which explains why some employees need tricycles to get around. >> with this year's holiday season expected to be their biggest one yet, amazon has brought in 50,000 additional workers. >> work hard. >> and online operation that depends on the human touch to fulfill those holiday wishes.
diana alvearp. in the united states, no major economic news, but key several reports including durable goods, consumer confidence as well as new and pending home sales. personal income spending and the second estimate of the third quarter, gdp, all coming up through the week. still to come on the program, u.s. stocks cashed in on solid retail performers last friday turning black on the traditional shopping holiday for the first time get this in four years. but is this rally going to stay. we'll talk about it. with the spark cash card from capital one, olaf gets great rewards for his small business! pizza! [ garth ] olaf's small business earns 2% cash back on every purchase, every day! helium delivery. put it on my spark card! [ pop! ] [ garth ] why settle for less? great businesses deserve great rewards!
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hope you've had a good weekend. this is where we'll indicate at the moment right now the dow down some 70 points. good gains last week which includes european stocks, as well. european stocks did even better. dow, nasdaq, s&p up nearly 3.4 to 4%. european stocks up 5.6%, today down half a pound. so u.s. markets back to business as usual today after closing out
the short holiday week with the first positive black friday since 2008. joining us is head of trading and founder of amplified trading. pierce, thanks for joining us. we talked the friday before last week and then i wrote about it and said if you're a trader, you might think we'll get a bounce. and we did. 5.5% for the dax, nasdaq composite up 4%. >> big bounce. bigger than expected. i think what that will mean, though, i think that was the best trading opportunity left in 2012, so if you missed it, you have to be a little bit cautious now about piling in at the start of this week. i think we can still maintain at the levels reached, but i think
it will be a little more choppy. >> and it contact on the back with the s&p off 10%, 11% from the september highs. >> that's right. an overextension. it was a pretty straightforward call. i know it's always easy to say that in hipd site, but -- >> we did call it, though. >> we did. but what do we do now? that's what people will be interested in. i think we'll probably be range bound for the next fort night. i think that the greek deal will get done today. i think -- that's to a certain september already priced in. but i think greece will get their money mid department. there's a bit of a lull on comments because of thanksgiving, but i think the
rhetoric will step up this week. and already over the weekend, there are some republicans may be suggesting, all right, we're okay with tax hikes, but we want a witnebit more from the democrn terms of spending cuts. so i think there will be still fiscal cliff nervousness that will create the range, but ultimately we can still rise from here into year end. whether we reach the high of the year or break the high of the year -- >> what's the mentality of asset managers going to be bearing in mind they're looking at their year end performance for this? >> well, that's true. i think at the moment you look it at the s&p, it's up something like 11% year to date. so that's remarkably better than what it was looking a week ago. so they'll be breathing a sigh of relief. normally we get a traditional year end rally. whether that will come in quite in force as it has in previous years, probably not. we've just had it.
but -- >> last week was a year he said rally. >> i think going into next year, typical kind of story. this year it's the u.s. that's really outperformed markets wise. next year i think that will flip and you'll see the emerging market performance retake that p top spot. >> the other question of course is what happens with u.s. corporates and earnings. >> they had their bad quarter. i think it won't improve dramatically, but i think you'll see the shift. and again it's not surprise. i think companies like apple will probably have a strong christmas and rebound sharply. but i think next year it will be more about the emerging market
space. .mi last week was back above 50 p so that story has come just in time. they will via fiscal squeeze. how large is still yet to be determined. so that will be a drag of course. so you need the other big economies to pick up that global slack. >> the question is whiches assets benefit. the shanghai market, local not the best place to be. >> but i think that will change next year. if china can stabilize and the growth rate might stabilize around 8% and then i think find will do well. economies overrelying on china like brazil or australia or south korea, these will be areas that will benefit from that chinese improving story.
>> as we go through -- because as we go through the fiscal cliff chats, how much will we swing around? >> i think the fear has peeked. 1395 is an important level that we got back up above last week. now, this is an important support level. we've ben testing it a bit this morning. they only have until mid-december really before congress breaks up, so at that point, i think we'll be pretty clear on how it will shape up. >> so as we're saying, congress
returns from thanksgiving break with talks to resolve the cliff. with no action by lawmakers and president obama, $600 billion in tax hikes and spending cuts would take effect in january. republicans and democrats at odds on calls to raise taxes on americans and cuts on programming like medicare. both sides publicly saying they're willing to compromise. >> we've got to raise additional revenues including tax rates on the wealthy. >> those have to go up. >> they have to go up either real tax rates or effective tax rates. there's ways of doing that. >> republicans always put revenue on the table. democrats always promise to cut spending. we never cut spending. what i'm looking for is more revenue for entitlement reform. >> and john boehner's called for a short term fix to overt the fiscal cliff so congress can work on on a bigger deal in 2013. but in an op-ed, republican senator bob corker says both sides need to carve out a $4 trillion package that includes both revenue hikes and spending
cuts by the end of the year. still to come, the miss crest shopping day of the year for online retailers. snapping up deals on big ike ket item. we'll get a look. having you ship my gifts couldn't be easier. well, having a ton of locations doesn't hurt. and a santa to boot! [ chuckles ] right, baby. oh, sir. that is a customer. oh...sorry about that. [ male announcer ] break from the holiday stress. fedex office.
today is cyber monday. analysts say it's not as big a day as it's been in past. so many people shopping online over the weekend. but com score still says sales might reach $1.5 billion. pierce, sunday it earlier, consumers appear to be on fire. >> kind of defies gravity a little bit. but with the consumer confidence data in the last three months, the consumer confidence numbers are up at five year highs.
>> how do you trade that? >> you can trade -- yeah, i think you can trade consumer related stocks. i think also what's interesting is the fact the dynamic that people are shopping. if you're looking for tablet sales, they'll rocket through because people, these tablets, while before they existed, we can't really need them. but now they exist and everybody's life almost revolves around them. so i think it's quite an interesting dynamic. >> i view it as a laptop, but i suppose they are mobile. >> shopping online at work, i don't think that's necessarily
as strong or will be as strong as it used to be because people can just do it at hole. internet speeds are so quick. you sit in front of the tv on your ipad and, you know, do your shopping. >> the tech sector were the worst performers in quarter three. >> let's put the chart back up. >> yes. they were the worst performers in quarter three. the tech sector generally with apple perhaps leading that -- it was the technology that banked the most and quarter four for apple traditionally strong. and when the media report that the online sales have rocketed and ipads and other tablet sales are through the roof, people who don't have them will say, well, actually, what are we missing out on here. so i think generally the tech
sack tore went through its worst quarter and i think now it will -- >> how does that relate to online stocks? >> well, am made zone is the classic example of retailer who will benefit from online retelling. they're doing a lot to improve their online capability. retailers that are traditionally in the shop. i think people buy different things online. if you buy a tv, for example, you look at the spec, you can see a picture of it, right, i'll buy that. but if you want to buy, i don't know, clothing, you really have to go to the shop and actually
feel it. so the types of products people buy online will be -- >> pierce, good to see you. just a reminder right now as we get towards or through the morning, headlines today, euro group ministers are very close now to a deal on greece. this is the french finance minister. swiss re puts claims for hurricane sandy at $900 million. and the figure may rise. and it is a shopping frenzy in the u.s. as early estimates see sales up 13% over the long holiday weekend. minutes of the october 30th policy meeting gave investors more reason to expect mormon monetary easing. would newcomers said it would t.
should reinforce its commitment by continuing an ultra easy policy. finance ministers are in brussels, they'll try and hammer out a deal again today on reducing greek deficit and releasing the next tranche of aid. politicians are considering a debt forgiveness program. tomt joyce is down playing talks saying the firm is well capitalized and would only pursue a deal if it creates value. they were forced to bring on new investors after a trading glitch
glooded with bad orders and nearly bankrupted the firm. barclays ceo reportedly facing pressure from some shareholders to spin off the investment bank division. ft says three he are pushing itr the move but it also admits most investors do like the current mix of business. so still to come, holiday shoppers may cry foul when they see the bill for the seven swans of swimming, six geese of laying this year. just how much will it cost to buy everything in the 12 days of christmas song? how much is a partridge in a pear tree? all to be revealed when we come back. [ male announcer ] this december, remember -- ♪ you can stay in and like something... ♪ [ car alarm deactivates ] ♪
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head of the u.s. open, stocks a little weaker following good gains last week. u.s. futures are negative at this particular moment. called lower by around about 66 on the dow, nasdaq called some 11, 12 points lower and the s&p 500 is some nearly 8 points lower. christmas is coming as we know. pnc wealth management is out with its annual christmas price index, it tracks the cost of every item in the 12 days of christmas song. the total bill, if you buy all 364 of those item, $107,300. jim dunagan joins us.
that number that i gist quoted, how does that compare to last year's costs of buying all the items? >> for the true cost of christmas, we're up 4.8% this year and if you bought all of the items, 6.1%. >> what's been driving the rise? cost of food and feeding geese? >> culprits were the six geese and the seven swans a swimming were up the most, and that was due to the drought we had in the united states that pushed up feed prices and also energy. and gold rings were up 16% this
year. >> is there anything in there that has actually got cheaper over the year? >> this is one year that in fact nothing has gone down this year. so we had six items which were flat, but the balance were all up. good news is that the maids a milking were flat as were the ladies dancing and lords of leaping all saw no increase this year. >> does that reflect the fact that wages haven't really done enough? flat wages? >> if we look at the overall wages in the index, they're bup 1.7%. drummers and pipers went up 5.5%, but overall labor saw about the same increase we're seeing in the united states. >> so the cost of other things going up, the wages are the low -- so the real squeeze on take home pay that we see in the
economy is happening in your pnc index, as well. >> it does show up in the index, as well. though early returns on the shopping season seems to be pretty strong. so we'll see whether consumers will show up at the cash registers and stores even with a cap on wages. >> it's a great thing to do. how do you actually generate publicity for you, how do your it, when you look at this, what are the trends that you find? >> the main portion we do see now, we have a website, pnc christmas price index.com that allows children of all ages to do it a global gift hunt, but supports educators with lesson plans that they can use to teach and to use the index to show economic trends and get insight into the overall economy.
and it does over time track the economy and track what we see in the government price index. we're a little higher this year, cpi in the united states is up 2.2%. so we're a little higher this year. but i think as you look at those items that are related to feed costs and what we saw as a result of the drought, no surprise that it's higher than in the overall economy. >> so why are we still having a fairly between shopping season? >> there is some pick up in consumer conversation and we have a struggling economy, but there does seem to be some momentum that the economy is pick up. hopefully that will continue as we make efforts to resolve challenges that we have around the if i cfiscal cliff. if we can do that, i think consumers are looking forward to better times ahead.
>> good stuff. thanks very much for joining us. we'll probably put this on the web actually if you want to look at all the differences. three french thens up 10%. now, for viewers in the u.s., as i say, you can't win if you didn't play. the u.s. power ball lottery jackpot is now $425 million for wednesday's draw. it's available in 40 u.s. states, washington, d.c. earlier this year mega reached a record. so if you want to buy the christmas list, who knows, you might be lucky. coming up next, it's "squawk box" in the u.s.
good morning. today's top story, after a weekend at the mall, americans return to work today to do more shopping. it's cyber monday. traditionally one of the busiest days of the year for e-commerce. and as far as the euro crisis goes, international lenders are taking another try at reaching a deal on greece's debt. back here at home, lawmakers are expected to resume serious negotiations on the fiscal cliff. i don't know how serious they'll be, though, according to a piece in the journal. it's monday, november 26, 2012, "squawk box" begins right now.