tv Street Signs CNBC July 8, 2013 2:00pm-3:01pm EDT
a bit of a rebound there even with interest rates moving higher in today's trading session. >> alcoa kicks off the earnings season as we put on that lower third. after the bell today, it's a very pivotal earnings season with a lot weighing on it. we'll see you when you get back here. that does it for today's "power lunch." >> "street signs" begins right now. see you tomorrow. gas prices and mortgage rates moving higher. a reason to worry or yet another speed bump this hopium economy will run right over? that ahead. five years ago boon pickens with/thoughts on our dependence on foreign oil. where we've gotten and how much further we have to go. and the latest on the asiana plane crash and what some
survivors did that has everybody shocked. hi, everybody. happy monday. june officially is a memory because just a few days into july we've wiped out june's stock market losses, the dow up 95 points right now, the nasdaq up one and the dow has been the leader so far this year. forget stocks for now because the chart to watch this hour might just be oil. yeah, we're down a bit, off 48 cents but we're above 103, the highest in crude oil in 15 minutes. let's bring in the man himself, boon pickens. five years ago he gave birth to a plan, the plan was shockingly large and startling simple. cut our dependence on foreign oil by converting trucks from gas line to natural gas and five years in, how is the pickens plan going? this is a cnbc exclusive. before we talk about your plan i do want to ask about your
thoughts on the train derailment and why are we still transporting petro chemicals by train? >> canada, it's another country, but nonetheless the way to transport petro chemicals, oil and natural gas is by pipeline, and keystone pipeline should be approved in the morning. >> do you think the odds of that happening are good? >> yeah, i think they are going to finally come around to it because the environmentalists don't want the pipeline. okay. do the environmentalists want you to transport by rail? truck? they don't want that either. what is it that the environmentalists have for you
that's going to solve a huge, huge problem in america is energy, and you pick the best ways to do it and then do it. i had the pickens plan came out five years ago today. my mother, if she were living, would be her 113th birthday and on that day it was by design, not by accident. anyway. here you are, pickens plan, it is working. it could happen faster with a little more leadership in washington, but look who bought it. china and russia. i have to laugh because the "wall street journal" said two years ago it looks like china is going to buy the pickens plan before the united states does. well, we had people in russia last week, and the russians are
going for it 100%. they are going for natural gas for transportation fuel to get off of diesel, and they will sell their oil, export their oil. good idea and production is cheaper. >> are you happy with where we stand five years in? >> when i first started talking about it, it was kind of like, hey, what's he talking about? natural gas. well, today everybody talks about it. four research papers last week on this very subject came out. you look at the leadership. it's ups, it's at&t, it's fedex, they are oil companies going to natural gas and heavy duty trucks. that's a place to start. just go there and let's see what happens, but get on your own resources in america. like you said. it's a very simple plan.
there isn't a country in the world today on their own resources that isn't doing well. >> a certainly part of the environmental lobby which would like us to drive solar powered skateboards but there's a middle ground which understands we need energy and infrastructure and we need to do it in the smartest ways possible and even those that believe natural gas is better than oil have a problem with prakking. is natural gas going to be public enemy number one, or will it be more accepted as it is today? >> the president said that the energy department developed fracking 30 years ago. well, in 1952 i was the one yore out of college and i saw my first frac job. that 60 years ago. 800,000 wells fracked in oklahoma, kansas and texas and i don't know of one failure of those 800,000 wells. maybe you can go in and dig
around and find something, i don't know, but it's very common. it's happened. listen, our oil and gas industry in the united states, can you almost say boon is out of it. i'm not running a company anymore and the i'll industry in america has done one fabulous job in this country. if you want to criticize them for anything, they have created too many jobs is what's happened and that's a true story. they developed the horizontal drilling. we're number one in the world today on natural gas and our ail is selling 10% cheaper than the rest of the world. >> what the oil industry did which was genius was create distribution mechanisms, gas stations, that you knew you could get in your car, whatever the gas mileage would be and you could find a gas station you could fill up at that you didn't have to worry. in 5, 10, 20 years can our
viewers get into a natural gas powered car, get on the road for a family vacation and not have to worry about running out of natural gas? >> you say five, ten years, if the mark takes you in that direction it's probably because the fuel is so much cheaper, but today you have the natural gas highway which clean energy fuels and pilot flying j have put in. it's on the interstate, and tied you can get in an l & g truck and go across the united states. sure, it's already happening. as far as your car is concerned. it's going to take a little longer because you only use about 500 gallons of fuel a year. l & g, an 18-wheeler uses 20,000 to 30,000 gallons and they are saving $2 a gallon on it and it forced that in that direction.
500 gallons is not enough to make you go -- to go to natural gas at this point. i say l & g, liquefied natural gas, also compressed natural gas. the trash cracks this year, over half of them in the united states will be on compressed natural gas. >> got to leave you with this question. >> what's more likely in the next six month, $110 oil or $90 oil or 5 buck natural gas or 3 buck natural gas? >> good question, good question. today you saw a 13-cent run-up on natural gas. it all depends. natural gas is so dependant on weather. now you've got a storm, you k w know, coming in, it looks like it could come into the gulf coast, a couple of them. that will run the price up. those are hurricanes, of course, and then i think that you will
see, and i'm giving myself an out here, if you have a cold weather you could very well be $5 natural gas, a mild winter looking at 4.50. >> both still higher than where we are right now. >> that's right. it is, and natural gas, we are so pressed with so much natural gas in this country it will be a long time. i don't know whether i'll ever see $8 natural gas again and it's incredible the opportunity -- we have the cheapest energy in the world in the united states. >> i've got to leave you with this question. your plan is a great plan, hope it succeeds but your mother's plan 113 years ago was even better. >> oh, gosh. thank you very much. thank you. >> appreciate it, buddy, all right. >> this is all happening as we continue to follow developments
out of canada. talked about a runaway train carrying 5,000 barrels of oil derailed and exploded this week in the u.s. border. five dead and 40 remain missing. it happened in a small town in quebec. nbc's katie it your joining us. any more word on the cause of this disaster? >> no more word. a lot of infighting about who actually started and who is responsible for it. the riley cap saying maybe there's an issue with a small fire in one of the locomotives earlier in the evening. two engineers signed off on the train. still five dead and that number is deceptively low. everybody expects that number to rise. we've spoken to a number of people who personally know someone who they truly believe is gone, someone in the nightclub down there, someone downtown that they believe are not with us anylonger. the two fires burning yesterday
have been put out but the pressure was so strong and high within the tanker cars that fire fighters and investigators haven't been able to approach the heart of the crash zone. they have been cooling it all day long and the moment they can go in there, the number of people they believe may have lost their lives is expected to go up. 70 tanker cars detached themselves from a locomotive northwest of down. rolled into the heart of the downtown area. it flattened 40 buildings and forced 2,000 people to evacuate. 1,400 of those people may never be allowed back to their home. it was said that the train was unmanned at the time. parked for an overnight shift change. they are not sure how it became detached from the locomotive.
the fear that the death toll may rise is there's a very popular nightclub down there that was packed at the time and they are worried that none were able to make it out alive. >> i want to ask but you may not be able to answer. an unmanned train, a um inform derailments recently up in canada. any discussion about whether or not this could turn into some type of a criminal investigation? there are things that just don't seem to add up necessarily here right now. >> certainly, certainly, and that's why -- part of the reason we're being kept so far away, down there it's a crime scene. investigators have to pore over eve everich inch of it. there were workers detaching a locomotive from it. certainly a crime scene cannot be ruled out here. >> katie it your in quebec.
thank you very much. appreciate it. >> josh, what are you looking at? >> watching jones group here which is enjoying a sharp move higher. the fashion company that owns nine west. >> jones group now in the early stages of reaching out to private equity and industry players to gauge interest in buying the company as a whole. >> big move there. thanks, buddy. more on this happy monday ahead and how close the dow is from getting back to its record close. also, 228 reasons to celebrate the u.s. dollar and why my summer vacation restored my faith in america's recovery, but first we want you to join the conversation. tweet us. we're on facebook. send a pigeon or just walk here.
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saying we could have upside surprises. what do you think and what are you hearing? >> i'm surprised by all the people who think it will be terrible. a familiar refrain here, brian. number one, very eager meager growth. 1% growth, 2%, maybe 3% at best. and yet no top line growth. this is how i look at the earnings season. expecting vote of 2.9%. average pete in the last several quarters has been three percentage points better than that. add three but 2.9, you get 5% earnings growth. that's not great. the average 18% and in this environment 6% earnings growth is not that bad. i don't think you're going to get a big push up in the stock market and sideways may be fine for the next several months to wait for the overall economy to prove. this is not the disaster that everybody thinks will be happening.
elsewhere, have you noticed how the stock market is acting? up almost every single day. 1669, the historic closing high. at 1640. 1.8% off of that historic high. back to you. how quickly june and its woes were forgotten. bob just talked about the disaster they thought it would be with regard to stocks. with regard to the bond market do you think the sudden spikes will be a disaster or manageable event for this market. >> it has to be a manageable event because i don't think we have the luxury to claim it as a disaster when it's really a normalization process. maybe the disaster was artificially depressing them so that the normalcy would be so shocking of like your story on the dollar index and it goes hat in hand with this conversation
because as the interest rate market zoomed post-may, so did the dollar index and being 228 years old, a two-day chart shows us we touched a level, around 84.5, that's a three-year high, but let's take a sliver of hose 228 years and look at a a 20-year chart and in just in 20 years, 120. six years later at 70 and the trending of the dollar index up and down has turned into a much choppier environment. i think all of that can change if interest rates remain to the upside. >> rick santelli, buddy, thank you very much. >> here we are 177 days left in the year, and the dow is already up 16% year to date. mighty tempting perhaps to take a cash off the stock's table but is that the wrong move. let's bring in the chairman of global markets at jpmorgan and guys, i know you're both very macro. i'll ask you to bring it back a
little for us, if you can. what are you investing in? what are you recommending from a fundamental perspective that our viewers might actually be able to take advantage of. don't say chinese credit markets. >> the situation in china is fast evolving. we've had a very challenging month of june when intrabank rates spiked up so that's causing a lot of concern among global investors in the viability of china's economic recovery. so what we're recommending to global investors basically is to stay with the chinese consumer sector as well as the service industry. in many of the heavy industries in china we have a situation of lack of efficiency and lack of profitability. however, in a new economy sector such as e-commerce, logistics and health care, things are doing very well so it's the story of two economies. one sector is dragging down the
overall growth of heavy industries and the other part of the economy, the new service industry, focuses on the consumer sector doing very well. >> it sounds like though you're saying that there are investable aspects to china because with all due respect our viewers have simply been hearing about all the chinese slowdowns and problems over the last two years. why do you believe there are still opportunities there when things are clearly slowing down a bit? >> yeah, things are definitely slowing down. china's economic growth this year will be below 8% for the first time in many years. as a matter of fact, the central government said growth rates will be around 7.5%. now, investors need to adjust their expectations in view of the slower macro environment. however, the economies are fast growing in some areas and the consumer market is booming. still a lot of affluent consumers spending more, not just in china but overseas. the luxury goods industry stands to benefit. many u.s. multi-national
companies will also do well as they have the advantage in terms of technology and penetration not into the chinese markets but emerging markets as a whole. you have to pick your sectors much more carefully than in the past. i would steer away from heavy industries which are inefficient. >> all right. let's bring you in here. ladies first generally owns signs. >> of course. >> where are the investable parts to this market, and do you agree with jane that there are safe places in china to invest right now? >> there are safe places in china to invest, brian, but i think they are going to be more longer term. if you're looking at private equity, real estate, particularly oriented towards foreign investors, and if you have a five to seven-year time horizon, china is going to serve you very well, but over the past year i've been at a 7% growth target for 2013. the consensus is close to the 7% figure i've been using so that's not a surprise.
the shanghai stock exchange at a whole has a further downside run to go. we're not finished with it. i wouldn't criticize the chinese authorities at well, doing the right thing, trying to reduce speculation in the property sector in the short term is the way to go, but if you are an looking for a three or six-month opportunity, it's negative. clearly the negatives that you're hearing about china or the equity markets i think you'll continue to hear, and on the listed equity market, it's very difficult to see anything positive that's taking place in the short term. the other aspect of this is that china is faced with the headwind that is coming from the reversal of the federal reserve policy, and to the extent there's a tapering of quantitative easing, it is going to affect all emerging markets and:exclusive. we've seen that in india and
brazil, two currencies where the equities and currency markets have taken a big hit. overall the short term where there's very little to shelter from in the emerging markets, but then as you said to begin with, the u.s. dollar's birthday celebration i think is going to go a lot longer. i think the u.s. dollar is going to be king. i've been saying on your program, brian, that bring your money into u.s. dollars. that's where the money is going to be. expect the dollar to appreciate, not only against the euro but also even the chinese will be under pressure in the short term. >> thank you very much. >> you're looking at or listening to me describe pictures of texas governor rick perry. he's just announced that he will not seek re-election for governor of texas next year. perry, you'll recall, ran for president last year.
during the cnbc debate he could not name the federal agencies he would eliminate. got two. he's the lone star state's longest serving governor and been considered the state's most powerful governor since the civil war. you hear about politicians kissing babies, literally. a live picture and i'll describe it for you on the radio, rick perry holding a baby on set announcing he's not running for re-election, shaking hands and walk off the podium. the number of the day, america, is 101 million. coming up, we're going to tell you why that number might leave you shaking your head. and we'll have the very late on the asiana crash investigation. what some survivors did that has everybody shocked. before global opportunities were part of their investment strategy... before they funded scholarships to the schools that gave them scholarships... before they planned for their parents' future needs
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tongue or throat, or difficulty breathing or swallowing, stop taking cialis and get medical help right away. ask your doctor about cialis for daily use and a 30-tablet free trial. i've got some breaking news from san francisco, and this is not good news for all the commuters out in the bay area, the oakland bay bridge which was scheduled to be open after delays by the way by labor day, no. it's going to be delayed again for at least another three month. it appears that the safety bolts that hold the bridge in the event of an earthquake. those are important, folks, have cracked.
now the bolts have to be retro fitted. that bridge, and its closing, has been a headache for many out in california, and it will be so for another couple of months. on a totally different note, there is more hopium on the housing front today, and it is good news for millions of under water homeowners. diana olick has the details in washington. diana? >> reporter: that's right. home prices were up over 12% in may annually from a year ago and they have been rising steadily for quite a while now. those price gains have given borrowers back much-needed home equity. take a look. the number of underwater borrowers, those who owe more on their mortgages than their homes are currently worth, fell by 41% from q1 of last year to q1 of this year, according to a new report from lender processing services. underwater borrowers represent under 15% of the active loan universe. that's 7.2 million mortgages that are bigger than the value of the homes they back, and that's down from a high of 17
million in 2011. that does not include near negative equity which when you have less than 20% equity in your home it makes it harder to moisture sell, pay and the drop is particularly dramatic in the sand states. in arizona where prices are up 20%, negative equity is down 53% to 18%. california, down 51% to 15.6%, and much the same in florida and nevada, again, according to lps. mortgage delinquencies were down over 15% at the end of may year to date. that's the largest drop in 11 years, and, of course, that's because negative equity is a primary driver of mortgage delinquencies. important to note, these numbers are all from the first three months of this year, well before the big spike in mortgage rates and the big concern is that those home price gains are going
to be tempered quite a bit by the rise in mortgage rates. more online. brian? >> diana, thank you very much. still ahead owns signs. how jesse james and teddy roosevelt just might save one american town that is really struggling. plus, why my summer vacation restored my faith in recovery. the five things i learned about the economy from heading out to the midwest, and herb greenburg is here that's going to help up serve up an upgrade and downgrade edition of "street talks." that after the break. mine was earned in djibouti, africa. 2004.
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the ntsb holding a news conference on the asiana crash investigate. phil lebeau monitoring it since it began. what can we expect to hear? >> the main thing we're looking for from the ntsb is two things. up, any kind of an update in terms of more technical data involving the plane. so far no indication of any mechanical problems. two, have they had a chance yet to fully debrief the four pilots on the asiana 214 plane? those are the two things we'll be looking from the ntsb what. have they ruled it in and said it s still a possibility? they have ruled out the possibility of two things. one, weather did not play a primary factor in this accident, and also it was not criminal or terrorist act-related. those two factors is been ruled out by the ntsb. still to be determined, still some kind of an impact because of mechanical or engine failure? so far they have seen nothing that indicates that's an issue and what happened with pilot error. the flight data recorders show
there were no distress signals issued by the pilots of asiana 214 before the crash. the plane did slow to a potential stall before trying to abort landing and do another fly-around, though the tail hit the sea wall meaning that could not take place. the ntsb does expect to spend at least a week going over the wreckage on runway 28 left. the official cause of the crash, unlikely to come for month, perhaps more than a career down the road before the ntsb makes a final determination. quickly sharing of boeing, see they are up fraction nalley. no indication that there was anything mechanically wrong with this boeing plane that might have people worried about production of the 777. we'll be monitoring this press conference to see what they have to say regarding their attempts to finally do a debrief of the pilots involved in this crash. >> phil, it was a very scary scene yesterday and a couple of things that stuck out here which were, number one, people who were on the plane were tweeting out pictures of the plane.
thankfully they were safe, but what is this with passengers who went back into the plane and retrieved their bags from the overhead? >> let's be clear here. i don't think they went back in the plane. >> they basically -- instead of running, fleeing, they got their bags. one apparently before their child. >> well, what is clear from the pictures that were tweeted and sent out after the crash is that there are people who are holding their bags, people who clearly grabbed them as they were going down the chutes. it brings up the question if you were in an accident like this, why are you grabbing your bags? we talked to the ntsb chairman about this and i've talked to other people in the aviation industry and both of them said the same thing, listen, strange as it sounds, that's what people are focused on. we saw when you had the plane that crashed or did the crash landing in the hudson river, people were more focused about the bags than getting out of plane. it blows me away to think what
somebody is thinking at that moment, but it's clear from the pictures that that happened. >> by the way, speaking of pictures and i want to set the scene quickly for our radio listeners, saw a plane land you behind the bay. is the chassis of the plane there, could i see the plane sitting there as we came down or took off above it? >> yes, and it will be there for a week and the tail is there. the burned out fuselage is not moving any time soon. remember, that's an accident scene, and they are going over this accident scene, not only the fuselage, but all the areas around it where other pieces have been scattered. so as distressing as that may be for somebody to land and see that fuselage. at the end of the day the ntsb investigators need to take their time going over this accident scene. >> okay. and phil, speaking of the ntsb, debra hirshman is speaking live. let's listen in live from san francisco. >> flying with a checked captain
or a training captain and then there were two other crew members, another captain and first officer who were also flying. again, remember, this is a very long transpacific flight and so the four crew members are there for relief so that the others can get rest. when we interview those four crew members we'll get a lot more details about their activities, about their work, about their training and about who was the pilot flying, who was the pilot in command in the cockpit at the time of the accident. we're going to be looking to correlate all of that information with what we are finding on the cockpit voice recorder and flight data recorder. it was important for us to await for the arrival of the korean counterparts and also asiana when we conduct interviews. we utilize the party process.
we do group interviews, and we've got pilots who also might need translation services during those interviews. we want to make sure that those interviews are effective and that they are comprehensive. i know you all have a lot of questions about the pilots and their training. i will tell you that when we brief tomorrow i hope to have a lot more information about the pilots just to head off some of the questions that i may not be able to answer today until those interviews are complete. our atc team has looked back through communications, through voice communications, and as i shared with you yesterday, we have no evidence of any distress calls or any problem reports with respect the aircraft prior to the accident. we will be reviewing data for
prior flights coming into san francisco in the hours and days prior to the accident, particularly on the accident runway to see if there were any issues associated with the recent run "k" construction or the glide slope outage. this crew was investigatored in for a 17-mile straight in final visual approach. they were investigatored in from the northern california tray con which is located near sacramento. asiana 214 reported that they had the airport in sight. they were cleared for the visual approach and they transitses to tower control.
they were cleared to land by the tower and the accident sequence and the subsequent launch of the emergency responders on the airport property. some of that we've already talked about yesterday. >> and you've been listening to the national transportation safety board commissioner debra hersman giving us an update on details of the crash of the asiana flight. she said they had a 17-mile direct approach. no warning signals sent from asiana's plane. we'll give you certainly more and the headlines if she makes news from that crash. all right. coming up after the break, we're going to give you more on the stock market moves as well as what harrisburg, pennsylvania, is doing to try to rescue its cash-strapped economy. i want you to think history. we're back right after this. hey kevin...still eating chalk for heartburn?
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currency and on 237 years ago the liberty bell rang for the first time. 2,000-copper and tin bell was rung to its citizens to the first public reading of the declaration of independence back in 1776. harrisburg, pennsylvania, plans to auction off thousands of historic artifacts it needs to raise money for the city whose finances are pretty much more broken than the liberty bell. joining us is the founder of an auction house and some cool items and uncool circumstances. you don't want to have to sell something to raise money. still, let's focus on the positives. the positives, really cool stuff here. tell us what this gun is. this is teddy roosevelt's hunting rifle? >> it's a combined hunting rifle and shotgun made for him and all the plaques indicating just that. general george patton's world war ii army shirt. as good as it gets. >> third army, too. my grandfather served under patton. do we know how many of these might exist? a pretty rare item?
>> many shirts, but none that we have ever known has come up for sale before. similarly, lbj's stetson custom made hat. >> really. >> but majority of items in this unprecedented 10,000 item auction, no reserve auction, are 600 or so firearms, this one being wyatt erps and on the other side of the coin doc holiday. >> doing the research, i hate to say the name, big name kate, not being crude, how show was known, she provided this gun to the city or the collector that had it before you guys got it, correct? all this stuff is verified. >> the stuff is verified, acquired by the mayor of harrisburg 20 years ago in anticipation of building a museum that was never built, so city monies used to buy these things now being sold to support the city. >> i was going to ask why does
harrisburg have so many old firearms, not new ones but old ones? >> 200 years ago harrisburg was called the gateway to the west. if you were an east coast person heading out to points unknown you funneled your way through haitianburg and bought your provisions and many of those are western themes, cowboys and indians, treasures from the revolutionary war right on through world war ii, we've seen. many rare documents. we have a warrant for the arrest of jesse james and a field promotion signed by general custer just month before the battle of the little big horn. >> before we let you go. when does this auction take place? how can our viewers bid if they would like to? >> july 15th through 21st, six solid days and thousands of lots taking place live in harrisburg, pennsylvania. if you can't be there, liveauctioneers.com, proxybid.com or go to our website, they will direct you. easy to do, and this will be a
wild and crazy auction. >> the wild west of auctions. thanks for bringing this very cool stuff in. >> thank you. >> you can get more information on our "street signs" facebook page. go there. well, as jimmy buffet sang, he went to paris, but i went to wisconsin, and coming up, the five things i learned about the american economy on my midwestern vacation. and the heat is on. retailers taking on a summer scorcher. we'll be sweating out the reasons why retailers have no more excuses for missing earnings when "street signs" returns.
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the dow jones industrials average having a nice monday. up 93 points. the s&p 500 and nasdaq are up as well. not as much on the dow, though. the dow now up 16% so far in 2013. all right. with all due respect to the very smart economists on wall street that we talk to all the time here on cnbc, there may be no better economist than our own two eyes, right, and what we see. and so, with a little tongue in cheek action, here's what i learned on my summer vacation. i drove back and forth in wisconsin over the past week, and here's a few things that stuck out to me. number one, consumer appears to be back, all right? the roads, it took me 20 hours
to get home yesterday. usually it's about 16 to 17. a lot more car travel. a lot of people on the road. and guess what? they were on the road in newer cars. i saw a lot of 30-day tags on pickup trucks. we're talking northern michigan, over the upper peninsula, ohio, pennsylvania, et cetera. still, though, the roads still stink, by the way. hubcap repair, the business of the future. and i noticed more toys. saw a lot more motorcycles, trailers, the toy-hauling trailers and even new boats on the lakes, as well. people are spending again. the family friends that we talk to, a lot of tweens and teens, and they're all, like, this on their cell phones, and i ask them what they're doing. i asked, are you on facebook? no, no, these tweens and teens i talked to at the lake, most of them on snap chat, twitter, vine, instagram, facebook itself, appears, at least according to that crew, simply not that cool anymore. some tongue in cheek stuff. the story up on cnbc.com. had fun in bratwurst country.
kohl's and coors up 3% and 5% respectively, and since retailers love to blame the weather for their problems, is the glorious weather most of us have had recently mean no more excuses? let us bring in jan rogers worldwide enter prices ceo as well as mary eppner, both former retail executives themselves. mary, i know it's been hot, but we don't have crazy weather for the most part lately. are retail excuses over? >> they're done. they have to be. they had so many good things going into the fourth of july weekend. business was good. and digital piece is good. there are categories that continue to be robust. so no more excuses. >> i like your attitude, mary. jane, i'm going to sit down. do you agree? >> june wasn't all that good, but i agree it was certainly better than may and it was better than the first quarter, and it did finish well. so it was a strong last week. so i do think the time for excuses is over.
i think we'll see a strong back to school. >> maybe it will be too hot, right? it was -- it was goldilocks. just right. too nice, i didn't want to go to the mall. >> yes. >> who do you think will prevail, mary? who's on your hot list, so to speak? >> i think macy's continues to be hot. >> everybody loves -- everyone loves macy's! jim cramer loves -- >> i can't speak for jan, but -- >> he loves it, a former macy's executive. >> so is she. >> so am i. they're doing all things right. if you go to macy's herald square and see where their direction is, it's right on. it's men's, it's accessories, cosmetics, shoes. those are all of the big businesses. those are the macrotrends, and therefore, they're winning. >> jan, give me somebody besides macy's. come on. >> i like abercrombie & fitch now. most people don't. >> what? you like a&f? >> i think holster looks a lot better than they did. the inventories are right. i think a&f looks better on the fashion, but inventories are still a mess. i'm betting their inventories
are better for back to school. and when they are, i think they're going to do well with hollister. >> and mary is shaking her head. >> i'm not buying it just yet, jan. i respect you immensely, but i can't go there just yet. i mean, a couple of things. number one, maybe they'll do better than they did last year, last year's really bad numbers. but we look for trends. what are they representing right now? they don't have the trends represented that are key at the macro level for girls right now. higher waist bottoms are coming on trend and bare-mid riff top, and it escapes us to why abercrombie doesn't have those trends. >> you going to throw in the towel on the jcp bet? i'm crushing you on the bet now. >> positive comps for back to school. double-digit positive comps in the fourth quarter. you lose the bet. >> the man has confidence. herb greenberg outside an a&f store, shirtless by the way. it may not be true.
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doughnut. and to round out the day, order up fried pickles with a nice chocolate-dipping sauce. admission 12 bucks for adults, 10 for kids. no word if that includes a free lipitor with every ticket. thanks for watching "street signs," everybody. mandy will be back tomorrow. the markets are higher. hope you have a great, hot monday. "closing bell" is next. and coincidentally, this is "closing bell." welcome for a monday, i'm bill griffeth here at the new york stock exchange. stocks are moving positive, starting off the week here. we're having a good day so far. >> that's right. i'm kelly evans in for maria today. the final hour of trading kicks off with the dow adding 102 points. there's plenty happening on today's show. it is the unofficial start of earnings season. >> here we go. >> kicking off about an hour now when alcoa reports. the ceo klaus kleinfeld will be here. we'll ask what he's doing to