tv Fast Money CNBC July 9, 2013 5:00pm-6:01pm EDT
highly cyclical and something to keep an eye on. four days in a row an up day for the markets. the russell 2,000 all time high. the s&p up 11. we are about 100 points away from an all time high on the industrial average and the nasdaq up as well. >> keep an eye on the crude. we'll bring you more as we get it. that's all for "closing bell." "fast money" starts right now. >> live from the nasdaq market site in new york city's times scare. our traders tonight, josh brown, brian kelly, anthony scaramucci and mike khouw. bullish break out. we're only one percent away from another all time high on the s&p 500. could the market be headed for an even bigger breakout? most importantly, how should you all be playing it.
josh brown we kick it off with you. first four day winning streak since april. s&p closing above 1650 significant. >> every sector is participating and most importantly the sectors that you want to see leading the charge given that this market is predicated on the possibility of expanding the economy, you want to see that type of risk appetite. you don't want to see it in utilities which is what we saw for the first quarters. until that changes and shows signs of weakness i have no idea why people are trying to call tops every 15 minutes. it's just not working. >> brian kelly, you're not a believer in the rally. you're not buying stocks. >> 0 no. i understand i josh is saying but a lot of things in the world could bring the market down.
if i look at stocks they're not particularly cheap, not particularly expensive. when i see a headline that says bigger breakout to come the trader in me wants to short that. i'm not shorting the market right now. >> it's been the wrong side to be on. >> we did have the pull back. >> what would you invest in if you had ten plus years until your retirement when you were actually using the money where do you think is a better return. >> emerging markets, the u.s. dollar those are two of the ones that i would buy. instead of buying the s&p, i would rather by eem. if you believe we're going into robust growth emerging markets are going to do well. >> give us the hedge fund view of the world as we sit here now and figure out how long the liquidity is going to keep coming. >> unwith of the great things
that we get access to at sky bridge is we have over 1,000 hedge funds we're covering on the research side so we get a very good sense for portfolios. gold we've seen a big decrease in gold. as an example you're holding about 25% of what you had at the beginning of the year. if you look at a name like aig, 23% of the shares of aig outstanding are held by hedge funds either in the warrant structure that was involved or the common stock. but i think that the long term trend is still bullish for the market. as i mentioned and i mentioned on halftime the fed pulls the plug, you're going to see a very big correction. even the jaw boning that bill dudley the president of the new york fed had to take back two days later is a sign the market is jittery. >> what would happen in
september -- >> you'll have a ten percent correction. >> what would happen if they start the taper and you don't get a correction? >> you don't think we already had that so called correction now conditioned? >> i think bill dudley went back into the jaw boning game two days after the chairman made his remarks. i think they're very very spooked about that. they want two things. they want short term rates still near zero and they want long term rates fairly low and they want to get out of the bond business and without crushing the assets reflection that they have created. >> aren't they caught with bernanke leaving since he got fired on national tv and they're not going to want to -- they're going to say you leave it all with me. you're just going to leave it with me to manage? >> i don't think that he got fired on national tv. i think that he signalled to the president long ago that he's
exhausted. he wants out of the job. i think he's got a competent team and he's done a very good job of building that team. >> regardless of why. >> i made the prediction on this show and hopefully you'll hold me to it in a fast fire that janet yellen will get the job. >> do you think that janet yellen wants to be the one to pull the punch bowl away? wouldn't she rather have bernanke do it before he leaves? >> i don't think she cares. >> it's been a resilient stock market. just when you thought we were going to have a steep correction we had one that lasted four or five percent. >> you're pointing out that we're at five year highs for equities but that includes the bottom of a business cycle. rates are exceptionally low. if you look at this rate environment, they actually still
look cheap. really what's going to shake equities is if it gets volatile again but people will settle down and when they do they're going to continue to my grate from the safe trades into cyclical and things like that. anthony was pointing this out, too, with the hedge fund concentration in gold. it's a safety trade or inflation trade. when you see them peeling that off you see come placesy and the options markets reflect that too. >> i would make the case that equities are not particularly expensive. they're not as chief as they were in 2011 but they top out. 15 times earnings it's not a big deal specifically in reference to where the bond prices are. if you look at the fed market or any one of those, you cannot make the case that stocks are crazy expensive on on absolute basis or relative basis. they're talking about reducing
the monthly amount. they would go from 85 to 65 or $70 billion and the stock market rallied on that news the market is confident that we can exit this and have some kind of expansion. i have no idea if that will happen but that response would be devastating to the people that are in gold and waiting for this 20% correction that they haven't been able to get. >> let's look at the charts and see what they're telling us. the next guest says the summer rally is just getting started. let's bring in the senior manager director at alter ra. what do you think is in store for the charts? a summer rally or a head fake right now and we're going to hit a swoon? >> we have a lot more to go on the upside. by the way the if the summer rally carries late into
september, that bodes as well for a strong year end rally. we made the low on june 24th. i think this is going to be just like last year it's going to carry into september. i love the leadership guys. take a look at secondaries leading the market. it's not blue chips and the transportation is on fire can't get better than that. >> you like the transport obviously, the theoryists are pointing to that. you have a target year end for the dow jones industrial average of 17,000. you like the movement that we've seen in the russell so the small caps and as josh brown has been pointing out the breath of the rally has been impressive. >> correct. the russell 2,000 is 2,000 stocks versus the s&p 500 or the 30 do you stocks. it's impressive. >> yet i've got a guy sitting to my right in brian kelly who says this is not the place to be stocks aren't necessarily cheap, that there are greater
opportunities that lie overseas, emerging markets. you counter by saying what? >> emerging markets got crushed. if you are waiting for a major move in that part of the world you're going to take a long time. months before they bottom out. the u.s. market is the best place in the world to be and it's up up and away. >> it's josh. i just want to touch on something that i think is really important here. a lot of people are waiting for the secular bull market to begin. they point to 16 and 17 year cycles. we're jumping the gun a little bit but you actually think the secular bull market has begun. can you talk about that. >> the march 2009 low in my opinion was comparable to the august 1982 low and that was the beginning of an 18 year secular bull market. we are at all time new highs, no
supply overhead. great leadership. hello, this is it. it didn't get better than this. by the way, i've lived through a couple of these and it's exactly like the old days. enjoy it. >> you can't tell me that a couple of weeks ago you weren't thinking that we could be in a different environment given where we were seeing rates heading and for that matter rates have remained fairly elevated relatively speaking though not obviously often a historical basis. >> honestly a couple of weeks ago when bernanke came out and started talking about taking his foot off the pedal i thought we would have a deeper correction than we had. everybody is talking about tapering. i think the markets have discounted that. we have absorbed the tapering news. interest rates, guys they're going up. when people tell me they are worried about mortgages at 4,
4.5% heck i paid 8, 9% about 20 years ago in new york city. >> before i let you go ralph, i want to give brian kelly a chance to respond directly to you because he's the bear on the desk and he's going to take issue with some of your points. >> whether we break out or not i'm neutral on stocks at this point in time. >> why, brian? >> they're at five year highs. how can you go out and tell everybody buy this market at five year highs. that is the classic mistake. >> buy high and it's going higher, brian. >> put it in context, five year highs but we have gone nowhere in 13 years. >> we're above the 13-year highs. guys i can't believe you. i lived through the same thing in the early 80s and people were complaining all the way up all
the way up and you're doing the same thing. enjoy it. have a drink. >> ralph, we appreciate it very much. we like a spirited debate on the program. we're thankful for your time tonight. thanks so much. >> thank you. >> mike khouw, you're not exactly over the rainbow with this rally? >> i'm not overwhelmingly act static about it. there's indifference that creeps in when you watch a strong rally as we have had and maybe you were tepid. look at all of that evidence that suggests that this is a reasonably valued market. what i particularly like is that the cyclic kl names are trading inexpensively. if you look at the industrials that josh was talking about it's not like you're buying those names at 15 16 times earnings. you're getting those at 10 or 11. >> as though there's a global depression and let's put the
raise rise in context. the big rally that started in the 1950 stz was up against rising rates. we have had it before. it doesn't automatically mean stocks go down. 73% of the time a year later the s&p is higher. >> let's shift our attention to crude oil for the moment and head back to headquarters. we have break is news in a sharp move in crude. >> reporter: a couple of big headlines sending crude to a 14-month high. first of all we have the coast guard in louisiana saying they're investigating what looks like a well that has begun to leak. it's 75 miles off the coast, gulf of mexico. they say that the well has lost control. it's an oil and natural gas production platform. work to plug the well is on going.
two other platforms have since been shut and personal have been safely evacuated. that's a situation we are monitoring there in the gulf. secondly the american pedestrian troel yum institute reporting another massive drawndown. crude was down 9 million barrels and more significant gasoline was down 3.5 million barrels. that's what we saw last week these draw downs. wti has been very bullish. that's where the front months have been more expensive than the back months. a lot of traders are talking about this trade. it used to be you used to trade the premium of brent over wti. that has slunk to below $4. wti very much the hot trade. you'll see very bullish these
days. >> you're getting a lot of respect on 104 and change oil. thanks so much. >> this is a headwind that folks don't need. >> certainlily. you want me to go from neutral to bearish on stocks obviously a spike in oil would do it. there is plenty of oil in the world. these draws in the last two weeks are a little concerning. much of the spike has been on geo political concerns. for now i discount it but it's something to watch. >> hold your thought. we've got another bit of breaking news right now. this time out of the nation's capital. >> reporter: federal regulators have made their final determination here in terms of systemically nonbank financial institutions and designated just two institutions aig and general electric capital
corporation. not included here interestingly is prudential financial which requested a hearing to contest the proposed determination last week. they're going to be given 30 days to get that hearing. right now nonbank financial institutions aig and ge capital. a couple of requirements as well of this. regulated by the federal reserve under this process that was established back under dodd frank. required to have living wills, risk management procedures concentration limits and obviously this decision has been controversial. a lot of critics have said there's going to be too much of a regulatory burden put on these companies as a result of this distinction. on the other hand there have been republicans on capitol hill that said that this is initially naming institutions as too big
to fail by the federal government and therefore it's unwise to do this because the government is essentially saying in this argument that these institutions will be bailed out by the federal government if there's another financial crises. right now two new designations this is the first time they have been designated american international group and general electric capital. they have 180 days to register with the feds. >> it's fair to say that neither of these names is a big surprise in aig or ge capital. i know there was some concern that if prudential for example was on there that any life insurer on there would pose a dicey question or gray area because their businesses are so different than an actual financial institution that requiring them to have more capital or hindering their activities could behinder their business. >> that's absolutely right. prudential was on the list of propose designees but they have
escaped for the time being this actual list. for aig they're in the insurance business. this is going fob new for the federal reserve regulating an insurance company. they're going to have to come up with a new set of procedures and proposals for how to do that. it's different than regulating a bank. they're used to dealing with bank requirements. dealing with insurance is a different beast. how you figure out who is systemic and who is not is going to be something to navigate over the months and years to come. >> thanks so much. just a quick comment from you anthony, that aig is on the list. it's a big hedge fund play. >> it's trading its book value. you can see it rising to $75 a share by the end of december of
2016. it's a big name for dan lowe who you know i'm close to lee cooperman who is my old boss. the fundamentals are very good. what you just heard today is probably going to put a dammener on the stock. this is the high water mark for financial regulation. you'll see like everything in our society the pendulum has swing to overregulation of assets and you'll see it cutting back the other way. >> as it often does. >> right. the democrats are going to be up against it in the near term with the congressional elections next year and i think you're going to see a tapering of this regulation. >> a comment from the treasure secretary. i'm sure mr. lew is going to be asked about this.
delivering alpha.com, if you have anymore questions about that. before we head to break let's check on after hours movers. how about open table. it's falling today 4% on city initiating coverage of the stock with a sell rating but it's a different tune for google. that stock is up slightly in extended trading. recently getting back above 900 bucks. that analyst right there, mark may, he has initiated coverage on many names. he's coming up on this show. tesla says hello to the s&p 500 while big blue gets a black eye courtesy of goldman. a few of our top trades today. stick around. we're back in two. trust your instincts to make the call. to treat my low testosterone my doctor and i went with axiron the only underarm low t treatment. axiron can restore t levels to normal in about 2 weeks in most men.
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that the smart phone maker is creating value for investors. >> haven't they been trying to do that all along. this is a smart phone story that he pointed out there could be more than one winner. even if there is they won't be one of them. they've got 40% of the enterprise business. i'm not excited. >> from your hand held device to the steering wheel tesla is off to the races again after being added to the nasdaq after july 15. >> i'm not sure what's left to say. that is the hottest stock in the building right now. people looking at valuation are still focused on peg ratio ors whatever. i'm not sure how long it can continue but it seems to want to go higher? >> bk? >> this is a place to watch. they are a barometer business. absolutely keep them on your
screen. >> keeping on the tech theme, citigroup as we told you earlier is initiating coverage on the major internet stocks today. after the bell mark may is the analyst who made those moves. he covers the name and joins us exclusively. mark welcome. nice to have you. >> thanks for having me. >> let's hit the bottom up. open table to a sell. the stocks getting hit as a result of this. why that move? >> this isn't a bad company but we think the stock is overdone. it's up over 35% year-to-date. we haven't seen changes in the fundamentals to justify that. what's a little different right now is we think that the penetration of this service in their core business which drives 90% of their value is greater than people realize in terms of their penetration of the major restaurants as well as the
portions of renovations they're driving to those restaurants. it's not a bad company, we think 30 times earnings it's not -- it's overvalued versus the growth that we expect over a three-year period. we expected growing will decelerate from 15 to 20% change to more of a 10% to 15% range. >> let's talk amazon versus linked in. amazon is rate as a buy. linked in which has done incredibly well you have as a neutral. why are you not hesitant on amazon? >> linked in is a great company. in fact, it was one of my top picks last year up until the spring of this year. it's's great company. i just think that the valuation
here is valuing in things that are either very new initiatives or things that are to come in the future that we're not really willing to kind of stick our neck outs and ascribe a lot of value or are very new. people are not looking at this on the parts basis. as you probably know it's not just a retailer anymore. they not only have a marketplace business like ebay but they have a growing cloud business that's competing with ibm and others that is on fire. >> josh brown? >> why do we have to look at linked in? following up on scott's question why do we need to look at any of these companies on the sum of the parts valuation basis. these are companies that if your note is to the same spirit have years and years and years ahead of them of a lot of growths. you mentioned 200 billion dollars as the total size of the
advertising market. i saw mobile advertising is only at $9 billion this year. isn't there room to grow into a bigger valuation? >> i agree that we're very early in the innings in terms of growth in the internet space. the title of our industry report is still in the early innings. linked in is more of a software business. their advertising business is much smaller than their software revenues. although they have a lot of opportunity in advertising, but i agree with you, video advertising online advertising on mobile devices and even your plane old banner ads and search still have a lot of growth opportunity. >> google and yahoo! both rated as byes two of your first forgive rate names?
>> yahoo! is more of a special situation. most of the value is based on assets that they don't actually control. in asia there are catalysts related to assets that we expect in the next 12 months. google is one of the best companies in the universe. well positioned in a number of the growth areas, and the valuation, you're getting a 20% plus grower at a 6% free cash flow yield in 15 times earnings. gone are the days when i started covering the space 14 years ago when we were valuing things on eye balls and revenue. we actually have every stock except one that we're recommending has a pe below 20. most have free crash flow yields in the five to seven percent range. it's a good group to look at. >> i need to get to two more quickly. why no love for netflix or
facebook? >> netflix is our top rated neutral stock. >> it's our best sit on your hands stock? >> we think the stock trends water until they raise the price of the core service. we don't think that happens for a year and you have time to own it. facebook is a relatively young company, going through a lot of transitions, especially this year. everyone knows about the one from desktop to mobiles. we would like more in their estimates before we start recommending the stock. >> we appreciate you coming on our show exclusively and to meet you on the telephone. >> next time i'll meet you in person. >> we look forward to that. mark may who has initiated coverage on a host of names that are internet movers tomorrow. tie up that conversation josh? >> he seems to like the older more established yahoo! google
amazon and the newer names are on this neutral list. he wants to give them more time to test. >> mike khouw, what do you think about this? >> part of the rationale was of course with his case on open table that they had such a big run. you can say the same for goingle. i've been a fan of the stock for a long time but if there was ever a time i was exhausted now might be it. but, look the company continues to innovate and deliver. these companies are also still not that expensive. >> still ahead the feds out with june policy minutes tomorrow. will the market get a more doveish tone its been banking on. one transport seeing heavy volume. mike khouw tells us how to play it when we come back.
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>> this is one interesting story today, one transport in particular spiking on very heavy volume in the session today. mike khouw what name are you looking at? >> federal express. there was a lot of activity. traded about 11 times its average daily options biguying. a lot of that was in calls. even the august 120s trading about 50 cents. these are bullish bets. i don't know why you would chase a trade like this though. just like i'm not going to short herbal life because he shorted or i'm going to buy jc penny. if you need to buy a speculative bet i guess you can do it but i
wouldn't follow it. >> the rumor aside you just don't see a stock like fedex move like this in a given day very often, right? 7% is a big move. >> even this they crushed earnings the stock would go up four or five percent. >> if you are the fedex management team are you happy or sad about this? >> i don't know. would you be all that happy to have an activist investor rumored to be taking a somewhat sizable stake in your company? >> you're going to be suspended for a while and come back when the new guy falls apart. >> fred smith has one heck of a reputation though. >> let me say something on behalf of bill. assuming that this is the name it's interesting that you would pick fedex versus ups. fedex because of fred smith has the entrepreneurial culture, rather than to say ups or another name like that in the
carrier business, dhl. it will be interesting to see what happens. i wouldn't be overly concerned. hopefully we'll get more information soon. >> are the safe havens no longer safe when it comes to seeking returns for pension funds. we'll talk to one woman behind the pension success story placing big bets. back in two. ♪ ♪ [ cows moo ] [ sizzling ] more rain... [ thunder rumbles ] ♪ ♪ [ male announcer ] when the world moves... futures move first. learn futures from experienced pros with dedicated chats and daily live webinars. and trade with papermoney to test-drive the market. ♪ ♪ all on thinkorswim. from td ameritrade. everybody has different investment objectives, ideas,
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>> welcome back to "fast money" live from the stock market site. treasury yields up the most since 1962. our next guest is seeing returns with alternative investments. let's bring in janet cowell. she's the soul trussty of the pension plan. great to have you on the show madam treasurer. >> tlu very much.
>> why the pick up in alternative? >> it's a longer term strategy. we all know fixed income is the highest risk place you can have your money and that means you're not going to have the money you need for retirement if you are putting your money in bonds. alternatives look increasingly atrick tif given the volatility of the stock market. >> you want to go from 4.1% in ail turn tifs to 7%. you have a sizable portion going into fixed income. >> we do. i'm still fighting the thought that a lot of people have politics people that aren't in the investment class that bonds are low risk. we know they're one of the highest risk areas you can have your money these days. >> how do you go about choosing which alternatives? are these buy right or private equity? where do you think the best opportunity is going to be?
>> we have done very well in direct lending in areas where we are taking advantage of capital scarcity particularly in europe in real estate where we get distressed real estate. also activist equity managers stock pickers who have high conviction around concern stocks. >> are you getting breaks on the fees? you're an 80 billion dollars fund. you can probably pay fees that are lower than a 5 billion dollars investor can pay? >> we negotiate hard. >> if you are saying you're looking at activist funds who are we talking about? >> active funds. we vp hundreds of managers so we deal with major private equity firms, black stone, apollo black rock as well as smaller private equity firms, startup. in general we have found that folks have been willing to work
on contract terms with pensions. sometimes you'll get a fee break, but certainly with a larger fund we have an advantage. >> janet, you did a good job answering that question. stay with that message, okay? don't give in to these guys on this desk here. >> thank you. >> nice to talk to you. thanks for spending time with us. >> thanks. >> the north carolina state treasurer. still ahead what would you pay for a 37-year-old apple one computer. the details of how much that beauty fetched at auction today just after the break.
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scott, right now i'm in sun valley at the media conference. all of the big players left in this hulu deal will be here. we have the remaining bidders, ceos coming here as well as all the parent companies. now there are two. >> we look forward to you reporting from sun valley. how much would you pay for a 37-year-old computer? the first functional apple one desktop hit the auction block this morning but didn't fetch the price many expected. is apple fading? >> reporter: christy's auction house sold an apple one computer this morning for more than $387,000. one of the first built by steve jobs and woz knee yak. it's now the most expensive item ever sold on the christy's platform.
the price is a huge markup. the apple retailed for $666 in 1986 but sold for less than the slight estimate of $500,000 including one that sold for $670,000 two months ago. the lower price may have been due to on line for mat or the condition of this particular pc even though it was signed by the woz. perhaps apple stocks and some of its products the public is losing its appetite for all things apple. back to you. >> coming up from the fomc minutes to the sun valley media conference, a few of our top trades tomorrow. we're hit the button with your traders after this short break. every step of the process, making it easier to try filters and strategies... to get a list of equity options...
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massachusetts. the last three times it's coming out the market got an upset stomach. >> and the last three times bernanke has spoken after the meeting the market got an up side stomach. you want to watch for whether or not there is talk about the tapering starting earlier calendar dependent as opposed to data dependent. the trade of this though is uup. the u.s. dollar. we know the fed is most likely going to be tapering some time in the next six months. if i'm wrong about that and the world falls apart the people are rushing to the dollar anyway. the pound is going down. >> any other currencies on your radar? you want to keep going? >> if you want me to talk about currencies that's a whole other show. >> chevron is out with second quarter interim update tomorrow off the bell.
we're watching crude after the bell and we'll be watching this one, too, after hearing breaking news on crude oil. >> we're long chef ron. we've been buying it all year on dips. it pays double the dividend as exxon exxon. $20 billion war chest. that's what people want to hear about. we think the stock is set up to go higher. >> we heard about the sun valley hulu bidding process. you better believe there's going to be interesting developments coming out of allen and company. that's out in sun valley ceos expected to attend. >> i think that is the best conference. you guys know a do a conference. i had the chance to go to this
conference six straight years. it's not only exciting but with john malone back in the game it's a good bet to see exciting things happening this week. >> our traders are quick but not always right. in april josh made a bearish bet on an old tech stock. >> this is an imploding market. first quarter pc sales were down 14%. it's almost a business that's disappearing. i want to lay this out for you. the last every single time they've reported going back to july 2011 they have actually beaten the street by ten percent. >> since you're call the stock is up and then downgraded. >> it's going lower. look, it's up 14% or whatever on this haz well chip. unfortunately it's a lower margin area of the world they're pushing into. their market is imploding. i stand by what i said. i did not make a bearish bet.
i said to avoid it. i can't buy intel here. talk to me at 19 or 20. >> it got downgraded by ever core yesterday. >> it's going lower. look at a chart. it had trouble at 24 before. had trouble again the stock is headed down. i still would not be in it. >> i mentioned a moment ago they're following this developing story out of the gulf of mexico regarding oil. do you have anything more? >> reporter: i do. it's actually more of a nat gas well. the safety environment enforcement telling us that there is a leak. they say there is no oil being released into the water despite reports of a visible sheen. they say this is a natural gas leak. this type of leak not something that you hope to happen but it has been known to happen a couple of times a year. there have been similar incidents since 2009. also analysts that i spoke to say this area the ship block,
225 platform is a shallow water area 75 miles after the coast in louisiana, mostly natural gas in that area a mature area so they're not exploring in deep water and going to a new depth. at the moment they're investigating what caused it and it does remain out of control. personnel has been evacuated. it appears everyone is safe. >> thanks so much. another story that we're going to be following throughout the day tomorrow. first move speaking of tomorrow when we return just after this. announcer: where can an investor be a name and not a number? scottrade. ron: i'm never alone with scottrade.
i can always call or stop by my local office. they're nearby and ready to help. so when i have questions i can talk to someone who knows exactly how i trade. because i don't trade like everybody. i trade like me. that's why i'm with scottrade. announcer: scottrade- proud to be ranked "best overall client experience." my mantra? always go the extra mile. to treat my low testosterone i did my research. my doctor and i went with axiron
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sell. >> anthony? >>. >> one of the things we can do is take advantage of the higher options prices andevening. i'll see you tomorrow on the halftime show. follow me on twitter. mad money with cramer starts now. >> my mission is simple. to make you money. i'm here to level the playing field for all investors. there's always it and i promise to help you find it. mad money starts now. >> i'm jim cramer. welcome to mad money. other people want to make friends. i'm just trying to make you money. my job isn't just to entertain but i'm trying to teach and coach. so call me. every time you think you've seen it all. every time that we thought there can't be any more scandals as
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