tv Fast Money CNBC July 29, 2013 5:00pm-6:01pm EDT
this year. >> a stock up more than 80% year-to-date. now it's up about 86% given this move that we've seen. i know it's somewhat of a muted market day but the really fun begins for the rest of the week. that's when you have got banks around the world meeting on jobs report and everything else. >> for now "fast money." >> live from the nasdaq market site in new york city times square with our traders. let's get right to the big story fast is following for a monday. teflon market, the s&p's move this year defy friday the bears making all the calls for a meaningful pull back wrong at least so far. is it time to brace for the bears with that impending correction. pete? >> the options markets will be
clear all the way to november. there was a buyer of the financials. buyers across all the financials. the financials from the beginning of this year the out performance versus s&p has been tremendous, the industrials as well. specifically the earnings coming out right now, look at ge, honey well, united technology, then you look at the financials, jpmorgan, morgan stanley, goldman sachs, we've seen strong numbers. i think there's plenty of room to the upside. the financials and the industrials are telling me we're going higher. >> 25% year over year growth. the rest of the market was down year after year. here you have a situation where the financials came off of a very extended period where they had earnings expressed. they got rid of the risk and started growing again. without the financials there is
really no earnings growth. we are in the fourth year of low rates and stimulus and not getting the earnings growth. >> how much of it is there is no better place than equities right now. how much of that exists. >> in u.s. equities. >> it's a crowded trade. >> if the market comes in five% due stay long, get longer? >> here's the thing. we have an fomc meeting this week. the consensus that the fed is going to start to taper in september. then we have an air pocket between august 15st and mid september when the next fed meeting is. to me we have to see stuff happen here or the market will anticipate less bond buying. we saw what happened in late may and early you know with the tapering. >> guy ad dadamadami, price is .
should you be bullish? >> the market doesn't give you a lot of time to buy the lows or sell the high. we topped out at 1687 back in may. go back and look at that day specifically, may 22nd. see how long we stayed above it in the first place, not very long. then we sold off 120 handles in the s&p. the move lately suggestion that's not coming at any time soon. to dan's point you could have shorted the market a couple hundred points ago. i'm sort of in pete's camp. i understand the reasons there are to be bearish but price is truth and the price to me says we're going higher. >> when you are talking about the options have been telling us this. there is been consistent buying into the october options. people are starting to think that these financials are going to move to the upside. look at these industrials. they are off the chain. ge, united technology. those were strong earnings.
when you get into the pharmaceutical space everybody says defensive. these are not defensive names. they're growth names. >> i have a question here. you both are working in the options market and seeing all these signs of bullishness and financials and industrials and so on. you look at the same markets and come away bearish. >> when i see a large call buy or something usually someone is selling stock against it. i don't exactly know what is going on. sometimes some of the smart guys at these levels are buying calls and replacing long stock. they're defining their risk at this point. >> they don't want to miss out on upside? >> have your exposure where you want it but trade around the positions whether you do it pete's way or dan's way. >> some of the most aggressive options we been seeing is buying up side calls and selling
downside puts. you're willing to take that stock at that price but you think it's going higher. >> that's why the sell side is always limited to roughly five to seven percent. >> let's move on here and get the technical take on the market. our next guest is has been pounding the table for more than a month now. listen. >> history shows you don't stop. you typically go down quite a bit more. 1927 there were 205 five plus corrections. the mean is .2. we're down now 6.2% which would be much shallower than the median or the mean. i would retain the shorts. >> the s&p 500 has climbed since then. carter is back. do you still stick by that? >> i do. let's look at charts and talk
about that circumstance. we have sold off 7.5 from high to low. now we're back to the highs which begs the question is it better or worse. the quick recovery makes it worse but let's look at the chart. here's the last eight months, a complacent benign trend. briefly we overshot that trend in early may. then we had an overshoot when you saw that tape on june 20th. now we have's shot back into the channel. it is vital that you stay not only in the channel but get back to the top. if you go back to the bottom trend it has all the hallmarks of losing steam. we think it's not good. everyone is bullish. i can tell you from all my meetings and clients. the promise is there's nowhere else to go. >> 16 or so handles in the s&p but specifically do you have a price for the s&p. >> i think you need a more
severe corrective. we need correction that keeps things healthy. it's more like 12 or 15 that expunges exuberance and takes care of what is clearly a one way trade. >> i have one quick question here. at what point do you abandon shorting stocks? te >> bears are cap pit lading every day. you see it in the press. what is the upside really versus the downside risk? can you grind out two or three or four percent, go to 1750 versus sustain a 12, 10, 9 percent selloff which sets you back two or even four months. >> let's move onto the russell now? >> let's look at this. this is important at least by my work. how far above or below trend can you get?
right now we are 12% above. the way i measure trend, you can do it any way you want but at this point if you look through history at least for the last 15 years and i have gone back to the inception of the russell in the early 80s. when you are 12% or higher the risk reward is asymmetrical. one more chart and this is important here. this is the all time chart. we've reached the internal trend line which is also a very important circumstance. that is exactly the 2000 and the 2007 peek and we are brushing up against this line that's been in effect. risk reward is not favored. >> that's an amazing chart. how do you reconcile the fact that off the june lows the russell 2000 outperformed the s&p, made that new high. it now seems to be losing steam. is it because it is abutting up
to that trend line off i guess the all time lows? >> that's part of it. the performance of small cap stocks is almost ineffective. we are now very, very extreme. we are analyzing something on a 40% year-to-date basis and the spread is exaggerated. the last month we're analyzing 120%. markets just don't do that. >> carter, you're out seeing clients as much as i am. how much of this is still the best spot on the block for returns? >> that's interesting. is that a strategy or a mind-set. that's almost a to heck with it approach. what do you want me to do gamble with gold or take my chance in bonds? u.s. equities are better than anything else. but is that a sound premise or just a sort of to heck with it what else am i going to do approach.
>> all good points. thank you. >> guy, did carter say anything that might convince you? >> he makes a great point about the russell. carter would admit that there's a chance the s&p would get up to 1725, 1750. that's a significant move to the upside. if i'm wrong, it will close above 1670. >> let's move on. take a check on herbal life. shares are moving big time not after hours session. the company beat on the top and the bottom lines, herb greenberg, chief herbal life correspondent is back the headquarters. herb, what do you see? >> optically you look at the earnings per share, much better than people expected. they raised guidance but only by a beat. interestingly enough, they lowered third quarter guidance, they didn't tell you why they lowered third quarter guidance. that's where the story gets kind of interesting. there was a month in this past quarter where they changed their
rules and basically banned their distributors from being the lead generation business effectively. that's a big deal. the company says it's not a big deal. that's going to be interesting to see how that follows through. also i want to point something out. metrics that are very important for this company are volume points and sales leaders. the growth of both of those has been decelerating at a farreirl big pace. the good news, they didn't decelerate as much as they expected. you have to decide the changes in the rules, whether this is sort of a sign of something going forward, assuming people care about anything other than that earnings per share number. >> i'm curious, pete, what sort of activity do you see? 31% of shares outstanding are short. herbing is decelerating the
trends. >> it's above what people projected. >> but it's just the amount of the beat. in other words, it's not some greater amount. >> it's exactly how much they beat in the second quarter. >> we're talking fundamentals. 30 some percent of the shares outstanding or short and 70% of the shares are owned by ten shareholders. these a purely technical trade right now. to the options market last week, somebody was selling out of the august 60 calls and buying the august 80 calls last week. >> august 80 calls? >> so somebody thinks that there is an epic short squeeze coming. >> short squeeze or not, look, again, there are two ways of looking at this company, one is the way that makes the stock go higher right now. short squeeze, buy backs, things that people thinking are
important obviously and then the fundamentals that aren't so b y bold. there is this underlying thing i've been talking about for a long time for the whole industry. at some point that may not matter, i agree with everybody. doesn't matter right now. >> outside of the main participants of this stock, given what transpired today, anybody that you talked to on the trading side would consider tipping their toe on the short side of things? i've heard people mention it. >> herb, thank you. before we move on and head to break, let's look at one after hours mover are had. eastman chemical. coming up next facebook shares $3 share of the ipo price. is the stock now a buy after its
>> welcome back. time to hit today's top trades. advertising stocks hitting a multi-year trade. >> merger equals traded about 15 times normal volume. i think it had an all time high. ipg had a huge move. that traded 7 times. i would avoid these names. a lot of noise in them. if you are fortunate to be long after today, get up. >> drug maker perrigo says its buying alon. >> this is a generic company
getting themselves in the biotech world. this is intriguing. when you look at this industry buyouts all over the place. this is very -- this is a big price, $8.6 billion. i think they overpaid in this case. >> lastly, dan loeb stepping up criticism of sony. third quarter revealing a new position and sending shares rallying in late afternoon trade. >> trying to catch these guy's coat tails or riding their coat tails is difficult. dan has had an amazing track record but remember he has time on his side. he can sit and wait. this stock is unchanged on the year, up 7.5%. today he thinks they can pay a much higher dividend. he's been a winner so this is one that you probably want to buy on pull backs. it's an out of favor stock and
out of favor sector. >> pete, did you see activity in other related names on the backs of this? >> absolutely but there are some names that just don't trade much. mosaic, some of those names, did see activity in those names as well. >> let's look at u.s. steel because the earns are out here, a loss of 35 cents a share. smaller loss than expected. >> i think and i'm looking at this now but i think the street was looking for a loss of about 80 cents. this is obviously a loss but significantly better. we had a street fight in this name a couple weeks ago. we talked about the potential for the trough to be in in the short term. i'm curious as to why it's out now. you might as well have it out now. again, better than expected. it's very hard to fade this. i think shorts might get caught here, maybe another buck or so over the next couple of days. >> guy is buying baskets of coal
and steel and hoping that one of their names is going to explode, whether it's short interest or less bad than it's been but it's so hard. >> when you listen to chanos a couple weeks ago, he said he led with the cat trade, he said the commandties circle is over. when you look back at 2008 this stock was trading $160. it's down here at, what, $19. it's amazing. so try to pick a bottom on a five year low is probably not a bad -- >> the buy side is running out of ideas and doubling. >> we are expecting the u.s. steel results to be out tomorrow morning. we weren't expecting these so i'm sure it's an entirely different story behind this early earnings release. the loss was smaller than expected. the revenues coming in a little bit light though. it's also talking about european segment that it's declined and that it does expect pricing
that's tubular and sheet steel to improve. out with earnings early. let's hit pops and drops, the big movers of the session. nat gas down three percent. >> this is a trading vehicle but i would have a hard time buying this for the long haul being as though the supply glut that's going to be out i don't see it going away. >> a pop for apple up two percent. >> a lot of buyers of the upside calls. people are convinced we have finally seen the turn in apple at least for now into the next earning season, two to one calls this is one of the most active option today. >> drop for expedia. >> guidance downgrade. this looked like it was trying to make a bottom today after that huge drop. closed on the lows.
i think this thing is a buy. >> drop for putin. it appears that russian president putin is getting in touch with his wild side. he managed to real in a 46-pound pike but bloggers were quick to point out that the story was fishy and saying the tale doesn't hold water. according to some, a pike of those proportioned would be too fat to swim. >> pete can speak to that one -- >> there's northern pike and musky. >> so a 46-pound musky, would it be capable of swimming or too fat to swim. >> they're swimming all over the place. >> they're playing barracuda by heart and --
>> heart and the barracudas -- >> moving on. coming up president obama says he's narrowed his decision on the next fed chairman. larry meyer here to weigh in on just who that contender may be and ben lays out his best trade in the commodities right now. stick around. if you're serious about taking your trading to a higher level, tdd#: 1-800-345-2550 then schwab is the place to trade. tdd#: 1-800-345-2550 call 1-888-284-9410 or visit schwab.com/trading to tdd#: 1-800-345-2550
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loss, revenues coming in a little light for the quarter. a spokesperson telling us they were authorized to release the earnings any time before the market opened tomorrow. most were expecting that to come this morning. that's why we're seeing the pop in the stock. let's switch gears here. ugs taking on new meaning. they reported a surprise drop in sales of the second quarter. does it have a new product or is it time for crocs? >> this stock is about sheep's skin prices. the last two years sheep's skin doubled in price. that's what took out the earnings capacity. that's going to be reverting back to the mean. deckers is a buy now. you don't want to talk about this in the winter. september, october, november way too late to be buying this. you want to be buying ahead of demand, not after that.
>> if your bull case is predicated on sheep's skin prices i think my bear case speaks for itself. with that said, if you go back to the quarter they just reported it was an absolute disaster as was their guidance and operating margins were beyond disaster. down 20% or so. in 2007 textbook potential head and shoulder in this name not to mention a bit of a top going back a couple months ago. 27% short interest would typically scare me and say you got to be long in this name. sometimes shorts are correct and i think they may have this one right. they seem to be in all the wrong businesses right now and saying all the wrong things. >> here's the thing. if sheep's skin prices are coming down, they're going to be cut back in half right now. it's about product mix. they're selling directly to the retail public. they're not selling through stores. margins increased by 50%. >> we're going to find out.
again, if sheep's skin is your argument, i -- >> $10 per skin. they drove it to up $20 per skin and now it's back to $5. >> there's also a new line called pure and pure is a wool process that will create what the furry side of the sheep's skin feels like. that should drive margin improvement. >> pete, where do you stand. >> steve is talking about going forward that margin improvement is going to be there. i think the fact that the stock is down to the $53 level, the opportunity is to the upside. >> i feel like you might own a pair? >> i don't have any ugs. >> melissa, full disclosure, i i
know it through a hedge fund and i bought it outside of that fund as well today. >> a pair? we want to know who you thought won our street fight. tweet us using hashtag bull or baesh. we'll have the results at the end of the show. johnson and johnson all time high but could the marketing signaling that it's coming to an end. back in two. with scottrade's online banking, i get one view of my bank and brokerage accounts with one login... to easily move my money when i need to. plus, when i call my local scottrade office, i can talk to someone who knows how i trade. because i don't trade like everybody. i trade like me. i'm with scottrade. (announcer) scottrade. awarded five-stars from smartmoney magazine.
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>> welcome back to "fast money." i'm josh lipton. we are watching shares of spirit airlines which are down right now in the after hours. the headline here is spirit airlines announcing today the public offering of 12 million shares of common stock by existing shareholders affiliated with indigo partners upon completion of the offering they will no longer own shares of common stock, of spirit. the company will not receive proceeds of this offering. the stock down about five percent right now though still up 60% over the past 12 months. >> guy, what do you do in this situation? >> we had this right for the wrong reasons.
the premise was a lot of momentum on the stock. we thought it would rally into earnings and sort of pull the rip cord. given this report it would have gone higher. i'd say, you know what, see where this is priced. you might want to get in because the story might still be intact to the upside. >> back in june former fed governor larry meyer was surprised after president obama made interesting remarks about fed chairman ben bernanke. take a listen. >> i almost fell off my chair when i heard the president's remarks last night. he essentially fired ben bernanke on the spot and gave him a fairly at the present identify testimonial afterwards. >> of course, since then obviously larry summers has picked up steam in terms of the parlor game as to who the next
fed chairman would be. the d.c. strategists were floating summers name around. >> i would agree with that. if you look at both of them, i don't think anyone could be misconstrued as being hawkish. for us on the floor it's a buy note regardless of what happens on the marketplace. people want to buy the market. they want to see a soft, soft landing if you can use that. >> wouldn't it be better from a market standpoint if it were janet yellen where she's a known commandty so to speak. >> this guy shouldn't be allowed to leave. he's put on the biggest pro pie tear trade of all time. i understand he's allowed but shouldn't be allowed. your point about yellen is probably right, better for the market. >> headlines on the bottom of your screen. we are learning the that
jpmorgan is being used of market manipulation of the electricity markets here. 2010 to 2011 was the time frame. more scrutiny on jpmorgan in commodities trading. that's never a good thing when it comes to banks. >> no. but the jpmorgan link to price manipulation, that story has been out there for a few years. there are reasons to get short jpmorgan if you think the banks have turned or the market is turning, this is not the reason to do it. this story has been out -- different parts of this story have been around now for a while. >> if they do sell it, they being the rest of the market starts to sell the stock off just like in the past, those are the opportunities we are all looking for. steve was talking about everyone wants to put money into the marketplace. you would want a jpmorgan if they sell this off toward that $50 number. if they get a 10 percent selloff
i would want in. >> remember we said get off of that warehouse business after that damming report about moving around the commodities within a big warehouse. >> there was an article on goldman sachs that people who need aluminum can't get -- it's been out there for a while. in terms of the stocks i don't think this is a reason to sell the stocks. >> let's get back to larry meyer. we had a mike issue which we ironed out. who do you think is going to be the next fed chair now that larry summer' name is in the ring? >> it's been a closer race between yellen and summers. i don't want to sort of pick a winner here, but i think it's very close. >> you know them both well.
what kind of fed chair man with larry summers be compared to janet yellen? >> i don't talk about people in those terms. i'm happy to talk about what differences might be in their policies. that's very interesting because i think summers would be to the hawkish side of bernanke and yellen to the doveish side. so it has implications for policy going forward although there are constraints on a new chairman and assessment of initial continuity. >> let's switch gears and talk about what we should expect from the fomc, bank of america maryland had an interesting report saying they're expecting an ambiguous signal about the timing causing the markets to rethink september when it comes to the start of tapering. what's your best guess and what we should expect? >> i don't think there will be anything like that in the policy statement. i think there will be a guidance
that the chairman gave at his press conference about the end of asset purchases being likely in mid 2013 when the unemployment rate is near 7%. otherwise i think the market sensitive issues here are what will they say about the strength of the economy? will they say it's been expanding at a moderate pace. the economy is really desell rated in the first half. if they recognize that there is going to push some people to wonder whether or not they will taper in september. the other thing that is likely top end up in the statement is some reference to financial conditions as an obstacle for growth in the second half. i think the committee wants to be careful here because i think it still believes and is itching to taper and believes that it's likely to taper in september. so you want to be careful with the message that you send. >> larry, do you think there is
some issue as we head into really what's going to be the q4 meeting, do you think there is potential for market volatility due to the uncertainty that we're going to have a new fed chairman in january and we have a policy that someone else is going to inherit and have to unwind? >> there's going to be uncertainty about what the new chairman is going to support relative to the current policies. that would be much more of course with larry summers. we have actually a lot of information about his views but janet yellen is the agent of continuity and larry is more of an unknown. there will be more volatility if it looks like or if we know by then that summersi is going to e the next chairman. >> what kind of chairman do you
think we need where we are facing the tapering and the unwind of this -- i don't want to say gray trade but the unwind of this program? do you think we need the continuity? >> an insider has never been more important than at this point. that's because janet has been there during the period of exceptional policy and unconventional policy and the whole discussion of the exit and the challenges of exit and what the sequence is going to be. summers is incredibly smart and a fast learner. that's an advantage that certainly goes to janet yellen. other than that the important things are being both a consensus builder and leader that might seem incompatible but you have to build a consensus around your views and you're going to be essentially the decider. so you better also be a strong leader. >> larry, also great to speak
with you. thanks for your time. >> pleasure. >> larry meyer of macro economic advisers. interesting larry summers would mean more volatility and janet yellen would be more continuity. >> he's not telling us something we wouldn't have assumed. we know what yellen is going to bring to the table. we're talking about a market where the volatility -- >> that's why summers doesn't stand a chance. >> larry meyer said the race is getting tighter. >> if you look over the futures over the next few months, the vix futures are pricing 19. it's not like we're seeing the options market pricing some big event. >> johnson and johnson with a new all time high but could the momentum be slowing soon.
>> j and j the chart is just fantastic. lower left of the upper right but some options traders think it's time to buy protection and they are buying puts. today we saw two puts trade for every call. given volatility was up over 8% they're happy to pay up for these puts. one trade in particular that we saw that was interesting, somebody bought over 2500 of the september 90 strike puts. they paid $1 even. that's an interesting level because that's the level the stock got to at the end of may and rejected convincingly. people are worried that if j and j gets below that level it's going to get mushy and have more downside. they're taking the opportunity to buy protection when they can and not when they have to. >> coming up next how is dennis gartman trading ahead of the fed decision? we'll join us live to give us his top commodity trade. don't look now, facebook is only
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>> welcome back to fast. let's switch gears. hit the commodity, bring in dennis gartman with his best commodities trade right now. dennis, what is it? >> actually, first of all, it was a musky -- >> it was? >> not a question. they can be 60 pounds -- >> and swim? >> and swim. i had one eat a bass that i caught that was 4.5 pounds. took it right off my stringer. they can be that big. but what's the big commandty trade? >> i like owning gold and i'm always a buyer of one thing and a seller of something else. i think one of the good trades is to be an owner of gold and seller of copper. gold is breaking to the upside and copper to the downside. the monetary authorities are going to continue to expand the supply of reserves.
inventories of copper around the world, whether it's shanghai, the lme are at or near ten year highs. that's going to tend to weigh heavily upon the copper market. i'm a buyer of gold, a seller of copper and a spreader of one against the other. >> in terms of the short copper trade, is a slowing china integral to that part of the equation and therefore -- i believe you think that a slowing china would hit europe more so than the u.s. as a correlary trade short european equities or something in europe? >> the question of a weakening -- we have to remember when you talk about a weakening china is going to have a deleterious market upon copper prices generally. i wouldn't want to be a seller of european kwekties under any circumstance. anybody who has been short of
european equities isn't feeling all that comfortable about life. there's a difference in being short of the copper market. look at the chart. it looks much worse than any equity market. >> if you expand that out though a little further to equities, i'm guessing, judging by how bullish you are on european equities you would be just as bullish on the s&p or does that equate to a short equity chance in the u.s. equity market? >> i have been bullish of equities in the last four weeks. i bought the nikkei and european equities. the equities market wants to go higher. it has been going higher. the trend is clear. guy is right. price is definitive. price rules and anybody who has been short finds themselves in a very awkward and uncomfortable position. >> dennis, always good to see you. we thank you for not only
bringing us a trade but clarifying the debate that we ha fish. >> that wasn't -- >> we can rest easy. thank you. >> having lived for a while in canada where we raise big muskies, that was a muchgy. >> so a musky ate a 4 pound bass which means it's enormous. >> i said it 25 minutes ago. you didn't believe me. >> i don't go with just one source for information, guy. anyway, time to fast forward and hit top trades for tomorrow. health care put pfizer and murk with earnings. >> pete was calling them growth stocks. the technical setup is really good. if you have a fed that downgrades the economy and does not start to taper i think the investors come back to them. >> facebook chasing ipo price
after a big move higher last week on earnings, another nice move today. it's a stock that our traders love to debate. take a listen. >> i would dump it. i've said from the beginning with facebook the only own you own it is you think mark zuckerberg has the ability to be the next steve jobs. >> if they can continue on that type of trajectory or close to that they're going to be doing very well this particular quarter. >> pete has been right about this one. what do you say? >> i've been in this stock for a year and it's been phenomenal until recently. since zuckerberg started showing folks that he can make money and monetize the mobile. he has delivered three quarters in a row. it's outstanding. if you look at the options markets they have been telling you this was going to explode to the upside. it certainly has. if you look at the monthly 40 calls today, over 6600 traded
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>> welcome back to "fast money." i'm josh lipton. we are watching mass co which is rising in the after hours. let me get you the numbers. on the top line 2.15 billion. analysts looking for 2.1. ceo saying it was delivered by each of their quarters and a back drop by a continued growth of new home construction up two percent in the after hours and up 20% so far this year. >> thank you josh. guy? >> much better, operating margins were much better. it goes to everything we've been saying. the home repair, they specifically talked about repair
and remodelling trends, exactly why i'm pushing people towards home depot. it should be positive for hd which reports three weeks from now. i like it even more on the back of this. >> you tweet it we trade it. let's get to your tweets. this one is for dan. is it too late to start a position in starbucks? >> guy adami nailed this one last week. we had a bull, bear debate. he said get in front of it. i was cautious. these guys crushed the number. they raised guidance, firing on all cylinders. here's the thing. i just don't think you get in here and buy it here. this is a stock you want to buy on dips. >> grasso, 3-d systems. >> if you have profits in them i would trim. >> got your first move tomorrow when we come right back. stay tuned.
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good. vlo. >> steven p? >> deckers. >> guy? >> bwa, all time high. i think it's headed towards triple digits. >> i'm melissa lee. for more "f" "mad money" with jim cramer starts right now. >> my mission is simple. to make you money. i'm here to level the playing field for all investors. there's always a bull market somewhere and i promise to help you find it. "mad money" starts now. hey, i'm cramer. welcome to "mad money." other people want to make friends, i'm just trying to make you money. call me. merger monday? at last, we have one and i say -- ♪ sure the averages didn't reflect this good news, dow