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tv   Fast Money  CNBC  November 26, 2014 5:00pm-6:01pm EST

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around with us every day trying to put this show together. again, a shout out. closing bell and i am high fiving the guys back in the control room as well. really very, very much appreciate it. it is a team effort. >> there's the holiday card for the team. we're going to be at the town center on black friday. we love to see you there. thanks, everybody. happy thanksgiving. it's time for ""fast money"" with melissa lee. live from the nags dak market in times square, it's time for "fast money." tim see more, john and jerry and kelly. guy is on me. three big commodity stories you need to know before you sit down for turkey dinner tomorrow. gobble, gobble. critical decision for gold looming. will they boost the gold holdings? plus, turkey prices gone wild. have food inflation costs finally cut into how you're dressing your thanksgiving day table. first, we start off with oil.
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now it's just hours away. crude is trading in the after hours session. it is down by 3/4 of a percent. at this point it does not look, brian kelly, at least the market is telling us, that there will be any sort of bust? >> it doesn't look like that. we got that word from the ministers today that essentially they're not going to cut anything. they're okay with the market stabilizings itself. most of the people in the market took this to mean that saudi arabia, which is the swing producer here, is okay and is most likely trying to reduce some of the output coming from the u.s. here. so i don't think we get anything. i think even if we got 500,000 barrels i would still caution. watch what they do, not what they say. even if they got 500,000 barrels, i don't think that would do much. we are seeing a reduction of 200,000 barrels a day. that will offset everything. i am still short xlp and xle. that's the way you continue to trade them. >> that's interesting. i took today as that you got your meeting today.
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actually, there's disappointment and you buy the weakness. i bought oih calls out in january. i think the event is a snap back rally. let's face it, opec is probably no match right now for technicals that are way oversold. rsis, relative strength indicators, all of these weird things that technical guys talk about because they're severe. you have a trade. oil is way oversold into this. you have an opportunity. so that to me is why you play this. i actually think they're going to cut 500,000 barrels. >> really? >> i don't know they played their hand. there's no question that i think saudi has a chess game to play. they're doing everything to dispel that myth. they have done this before. they think they can hold it out. i am actually a little different than brian. i think global demand is okay. we're going to see 1.1 billion barrels of demand. oil is an increasing aggregate. >> just a supply problem. your concern is that they actually do cut and nothing happens? >> yeah. if that were to happen, i think
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that's a big negative. >> right. >> but what i think the contrary to that could be that they make this move, whatever it is, tomorrow and that we actually do see the rally that tim's talking about even though i see a lot of leaks, at least through the options markets that imply that people think that either, a, they knew about that margin increase yesterday on the cme, or today they took profits on that big trade from yesterday in the xle, the 86 puts, and they rolled down to the 84 puts. >> right. >> in other words, they're looking for more down side here and that could be obviously for the camp that thinks oil is heading to 70. >> it's interesting. we were talking about the xle. that's the energy sector of the s&p 500. more and more it's integrated. >> right. >> it's the players that can withstand a drop in oil prices as opposed to the drillers or the ent companies. >> or they should be able to weather the storm. we'll talk about that in a
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minute. to doc's point and timmy's point, if they cut and the market goes lower, see, i've been in the demand camp for a while, more so than the supply, and that's what makes markets but if they cut and the price goes lower, i think that reinforces the fact that at this point and to me it's more demand than supply and maybe global economies aren't strong as they are and maybe the bond market tlt -- >> or the dollar. or the dollar. make no mistake, much of this oil trade is about the dollar. it's gone up 10%, 13%. inverse correlation, .9. totally trades in line inversely with the dollar. >> let's get more on the oil and what to expect from tomorrow's meeting. let's bring in andy lippout. >> thanks for having me. >> what are you recommending to clients? what are you expecting to happen? >> i'm expecting that they're going to make an announcement that we need better compliance and we're looking at the market.
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i'm in the camp that i expect we'll get a cut of 500,000 barrels a day. that will stabilize prices. the market will look at how much cheating is going on? >> so it's going to be an ineffective cut? >> at 500,000 barrels a day i think the market is going to drip lower because they're not going to stop the oncoming shell production or the significant amount of gulf of mexico production that's coming on. in six weeks the market is already going to be looking ahead at spring demand which is seasonally lower than it is right now. >> all right. so what's your trade? do you then -- is there an opportunity on a slight bounce, knee-jerk reaction to a cut to then put on shorts in the oil sector? >> yeah. i think shorting it will be the way to go if they make some announcement that hardly means anything. $500,000 a day cut, i would sell the market. i expect that if the market
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would decline to 70 bucks very rapidly. >> andy, what do you do, we talked about this before with the integrateds who his torquically never rallied in oil price kind of bubble environments. maybe we weren't at a bubble before. that was the average price since 2006, but someone like an exxon or someone like a conico phillips who have diversified and are not so related or tied to upstream, is this an opportunity for guys that are cash generative machines and in exxon's case they get criticized because of their production? >> i think it has less of an effect on exxon because they are so diverse but the mid level type of producers like the devons, the apaches, mobile, that group of people, rosetta resources are highly at risk, especially the canadian producers like sun course and cnrl who are tied to the case of canadian price of heavy oil will be dropping precipitously. >> we have a knee-jerk reaction
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higher and then a decline. what does that tell you? we're debating here as to whether or not a cut and assuming drop in oil would mean the demand picture is a problem. what's your view? >> well, i do think that demand is a problem. i can tell you you can see in the european union demand is going down as well as in japan. as far as china goes, i know demand is pretty lousy when people are calling me saying, andy, can you market your diesel car going to the americans. that's showing how large petroleum is. >> andy, the other you'd be along the transports essentially? >> well, exactly. airlines is clearly a beneficiary, but the fed ex, ups, jb hunt will benefit not only for the lower diesel price for the truck but the lower jet fuel price for when fed ex and ups is delivering overnight packages. >> andy, we'll leave it there. thank you for your information.
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let's take a look at one chart twi may be the canary in the coal mine. the declines were massive. it was taken to the wood shed. it hit a new high. the companies are spending dividends citing the uncertainty in oil price. wells fargo coming out saying, you know what, they won't be the only ones and actually diamond and rigs could be the next to do the same. >> maybe it's the reason to buy sea drill here now. listen, not a huge valuation. i think they trade seven or eight times forward earningsish. obviously you have a huge amount of bad news already priced in and you have a stock today that traded about 11 times normal volume. so all those things add up to me. if they're the first out of the gate, they might be the first reward if somebody acts in kind. so given the volume we saw today, understanding it's volatile, i think sea drill will be interesting. >> these are the break even prices for shale producers in
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the united states. morningstar says 70 bucks. r.w. baird, 73, pretty much there. bernstein says 1/3 of shale production would be uneconomic at 70 bucks a barrel. >> this is saudi strategy. if you keep somewhere around $75, fine. if you go down to 60 there will be no production increases. around these levels they're talking about 500,000 barrels which is where i get my 500,000 from. i think it's very important that these guys become very, very uneconomic. this has happened before, look back to '86. >> we saw today there's a story in "the financial times" about some of the debt possibly being a problem now. when you see that in the high yield market, hyg. one of the reasons i'm short that as well. again, that's why i think we only get to about 70 in oil because at those levels you will have the market start anticipating at the very least some shutting down of production if not some outright problems with the dax, cutting of
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dividends. >> energy is the biggest component of hyg in terms of sector. >> that's right. >> huge exposure. >> real quick, what's shocking to me is the energy trade has not worked effectively since late summer, early fall if the s&p is at an all-time high. >> right. >> it's interesting that they continue to chug along with one of the biggest components. >> and the transports are the inverse of that. coming up, the chip trade was on fire today with several big names hitting new highs. the biggest semi movers. plus, should you vote for goi pro. we'll take a deeper did i have. take a live look at laguardia as the winter weather here in new york rages on. latest on your turkey day travels when we come back. bulldog: oooh!
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♪ ♪ what? >> the song is sweater weather. >> always on top of that. listen to the music on this show. >> they're hip. >> that must have been a dell person. >> snow is all you need to know. winter storm wreaking havoc
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across the northeast causing major airport delays and cans be sell lagss for holiday travelers. kate rogers is live from laguardia with the latest on the weather and holiday travel. kate? >> reporter: melissa, rain, wind and snow not good for airlines getting out on time. good news for stocks. united, southwest, delta and american airlines all rallying and closing higher. they opted to wave the flight change fees for consumers around $200. some giving consumers two days, southwest giving you up to two weeks. the people we talked to here not that concerned about changing their flights, more concerned about getting out ahead of the storm. >> we booked it so far in advantages i don't even think we thought about the weather. >> i'm nervous about the weather to be honest with you because it's supposed to be raining and snowing as we're going and then it's supposed to be raining and snowing as we're coming back so so
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a little nervous. >> reporter: lots of cancellations across the board. we'll take you to the latest from flight aware. across the u.s., more than 680 flights have been completely canceled. more than 1200 flights have been delayed. at laguardia more than 600 flights have been canned due to winter storm kato. melissa, i have to tell you not great news for the 3.5 million people who are planning to travel by air this thanksgiving. >> no, it's not. kate rogers at laguardia airport. kate mentioned some of the components of xil. jetblue, new high in today's session. aal, a new high. they're not trucking higher but you know -- >> jetblue. >> soaring? >> taking off. >> flying. >> higher? >> you done? that's the best you can come up with? >> go ahead. >> jetblue, we had a 52-week high. that's the name that's catching up to the rest of the space. the name continues to move higher from here. maybe the rest of space is ahead
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of it. i don't think so. i still think jetblue has room to catch up. >> doc? >> i don't think the storm is enough to hold back retail. i would buy the retailers. >> that's your winter weather trade in general? >> for anybody who's afraid that this storm is going to keep people out, not from what i'm seeing. not from what we saw over in new jersey. the snow earlier today, even though i know scranton to the west, it's a more severe, but that's not the heavy population areas. heavy population areas are on this side of 95. i think it will be fine. >> i'm glad you mentioned winter weather trades. we want to go around the horn. >> that's what we're doing right now. one of the winter weather trades, compass minerals. cmp. they make the road salt. these are contracted a year out so it's only going to be a play if there's a severe shortage just this year towards the end of the year so they can raise their prices, but if you start to see cold weather, lots of snow, cmp is your play. >> they will be able to lock in higher prices for the next year?
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>> for the next year. >> tim. >> i'm going with something much more luxurious. hot or star wood as my travel play. i think luxury hotels are in a multi-year structural expansion because of demand, because of international, because of emerging. these guys are selling off assets. they're selling off shares and assets. they've had $800 million worth of share divestitures. management is improved. some of the best in the business. valuation is decent. this is what you buy if you're looking for global luxury hotels. hot. >> interesting how his mind works. >> exactly. you never know. >> high thread count sheets, feather beds. >> you can only imagine. >> you're home in your feety pajamas, what are you doing? you're bored. you get on that facebook. i don't do that. >> facebook. >> you are on facebook though. >> i am -- you can facebook me. >> is that your trade? >> no. it's not a trade. >> winter weather trade. >> i'm trying to figure out where you are right now.
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>> he's backing through, footy pajamas, at home, bored. >> last quarter they reported on the 29th of octoberish, it was a great quarter. what scared people was the amount of money they were going to spend. more and more analysts are coming to grips with it. the stock had its best day since then. i like facebook. >> your handle is gswizel. >> gswiz. >> he's naughty. >> coming up, the analyst who has pounded the table on best buy since day one. find out what he's expecting from the big box retailer on the busiest shopping day of the year. >> earnings are getting over shadowed and the gloomy outlook and what it means for the rest of the space. that's next. stay tuned. >> announcer: from record-breaking highs to major market meltdowns. every night the "fast money" team makes sense of the trades serving up in depth analysis and actionable advice. >> that's where i buy with both hands. >> announcer: all to help you prepare for the next trading day. >> not owning it now.
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i wouldn't chase it here. >> announcer: this is "fast money." >> that is an enormous, enormous move. >> announcer: tweet u uus us @cnbcfastmoney. i'm only in my 60's. i've got a nice long life ahead. big plans. so when i found out medicare doesn't pay all my medical expenses, i looked at my options. then i got a medicare supplement insurance plan. [ male announcer ] if you're eligible for medicare, you may know it only covers about 80% of your part b medical expenses. the rest is up to you. call now and find out about an aarp medicare supplement insurance plan,
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take a look at that huge move higher for gopro kicking off the top trades. they see the top position with amber rel earnings next week which could be a catalyst. gopro is reportedly developing its own line of drones to be released in 2015. interestingly, they maintain neutral ratings. >> online for drones. sounds ridiculous. >> were not? >> i know i'm getting one. >> why should gopro allow someone to strap a camera on a drone? >> the nasdaq investor program for gopro. it traded hardly off the secondary. 10.5 shares. recaptured it today. you saw it exploded through. i still say you own the stock into the holidays. i like the name. if the ambarel earnings surprise, which they probably will, i think this is a $90
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stock. i think analysts will upgrade it. >> i get why that's a catalyst. if you had a choice, would you rather, if you will, would you rather gopro or ambarel? it's more diversified. >> i'm with you. i would go for ambarel as well but i like them both. if i have to play that game i'm taking ambarella. >> i'm with gopro on this. i'm with you and ambarella. i agree with guy. it's very difficult to fail this quarter. question is how much have we priced in? it will be because of the new camera. this is not a trade past december 31st. >> next up, deere. the machinery equipment maker's outlook is down. just three months ago they said the agricultural economy was relatively healthy. >> yeah. >> what happened? >> well, they actually did well on their earnings, right?
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it was relatively healthy. it's the outlook going to next year that they would lessen what the street expected. now i would say if you start to look at wheat and corn and some of the underlyings, you punch of dba, that's your etf on those, they're starting to bottom out. they're going cyclical. farmers will plant less, prices will go up. i think deere is a buy off of this. i think you use 84 as your stop but probably the bad news is out. >> set up like a cat trade? what do you think? >> it sure could. some of the statements they made now about the dividends and wanting -- and targeting an increase to that, an increased payout to shareholders to perfect strangers to quote warren buffet, i think that's a positive for deere going forward. that would play into brian's recovery strategy. >> if adco can hold 40 bucks, you trade did with a $40 stop. that's where we bottomed out in the middle of 2012. this stock has been awful all year. it didn't make a 52 week low.
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it got pretty close. you play it from the long side. next up, several big moves in the semiconductor. intel, texas and applied materials. stocks at a new high, up 2.1 on a session, tim. >> give a lot of credit to intel. analysts a week ago ou interest weeks ago say it was very strong. what we're seeing across the board, you have more demand at least than was expected in the pc space. you have a lot of move to the cloud growth. you have the chinese oem and the smartphone growth. you have a lot of different ways that a few of these companies are doing well. having said that, be careful at this point. if you look at where inventories are, you end demands. counting this in the core chip markets you're five or six days ahead going to end markets. people don't think that's any better. a lot of relative surprise, a lot of up side. big moves. i think you can still own intel because i don't think it's that expensive. you'll be very careful buying the sector.
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>> even bigger move and that was up 2 1/4? >> i'm with tim. i don't think you buy intel or any of the semis. if anything, you start peeling them off. look what we saw from hewlett-packard. we're seeing the pc fresh cycle is flying at the very least if not turning down. microsoft the same idea. i'd be peeling out. >> let's say we're talking about a chip maker with less exposure like nxpi, would you start peeling off those? >> you could. what was it, monday or tuesday, we had clsa come out and basically say get out of intel. this is an analyst that's missed the entire move. then you have barons saying 30% up side over the next couple of years for intel. i like intel. i like a lot of the chip stocks and, you know, we've seen some strong activity in the space. i don't think you're ever going to fault yourself though for taking money off the table when you've got a winner but i wouldn't short them. >> yeah, that's exactly what i
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was going to say. november 6th qualcomm traded. we talk about that potentially being the troif and the trade. i think it's qualcomm. >> unusual activity, doc, you're noticing high call volumes in broadcom. >> yeah. another 52-week high. as these guys have said, we saw another 2% move out of this name today. so we've seen people rolling up call options more bullish as they buy each group of that. i think they're betting on this stock being closer to 50 within the first quarter of next year so it's making, you know, those 60, 70 cent moves every other day. i like sticking with this one. >> okay. after the break it's been the big box retail turn around story heard around the street. best buy leading up to black friday. can it hold onto the gains. the analyst who's been behind
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still ahead on "fast money", black friday just two days away. the analysts who have pounded
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the table on best buy will weigh in. will they blow away the competition? plus, a swiss vote on gold. the swiss ranks are ahead. later, just how much is that butterball turkey, stuffing and green bean casserole going to cost you. first, let's start off with one of the biggest black friday winners, that may be best buy. it has been on every analyst's sell list. he has had a buy in the stock since 2012. back to then it was a contrarian call. back then it was questionable. props to you. >> thank you well, i think you're into this tv cycle. that has a potential to be pretty powerful. how long it lasts into next year and beyond that, i don't know, but i think this holiday when we look back on it will all be about 4 k.
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>> how do we know 4 k isn't like 3d? everybody thought it would be a big upgrade and it didn't pan out. >> longer term we don't know that. we do know it's a better picture, the pricing is coming down. we're 8 to 10 years from when the peak of the tv cycle is. we're back to the upgrade cycle of tvs. it's a great picture. the thing with 3-d ultimately no one wanted to wear the glasses. 4 k. we don't have a lot of product. netflix is bringing out product faster. that's probably the risk. at this point at the price points they're at right now, you know, there's future proving and there's upgrades coming. >> so, david, you know, first of all, congrats on a great call. i have to say i was with you up until about 15% ago in the stock. i hate the fact that i sold it early. you're getting to a place on the charts around $40. valuation we're saying we get it. they have overcome.
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people know they are past the showroom. people know there's a product show case. what's the next catalyst? >> they're trading at 5 times eba doc. other traders are trading at twice that. home depose, lowe's, walmarts, targets. they're trading 9 to 12 times eva dot. they were trading at 1, 1.5 times when this move started. the other thing is you have a company now that's going to be generating 1 billion to $1.5 billion of free cash flow. they've been building up a balance sheet of $3 billion in cash. next year they have to give that back at 12, $13 billion market cap. that's a pretty aggressive free cash flow yield back to shareholders. along with that i think you have a company that's still vastly improved from what it was two years ago when we first started talking about this. >> michael, brian kelly. i'm curious about making a
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smaller footprint out there. how far along are they on that? where can they go in 2015? can they reduce their costs more? >> you know, it's a funny thing. i was just in a store in florida i would say two weeks ago. it may sound crazy, but i'm not sure there's enough space in some of these stores. in the 40, 45,000 square foot store, when they're adding their broader appliance category, when you see the sony, the samsung, i've got to tell you i don't think the store is too big. last year they probably overcut on the dvds and cds. they're bringing that back. they're going to correct that this year. once again, longer term that's probably not going to save them or be a big driver of their business, but i think going through these stores, at least their top 7 or 800 stores, they're not that big. >> all right. so best buy was a great call, david. what's your next sort of diamond in the rough retailer that
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people should look at? >> you know, i've got to tell you, i think that best buy still remains a diamond in the rough. at the risk of being overly best buy focused here and everything like that, you know, listen, i think target is interesting. we're neutral on it right now. they have a new ceo in there. there's a lot of change that's going to come to that business over the next year. the valuation is probably run faster than i would have kind of -- you know, would have -- i'm a little bit surprised about that. i think throughout all of retail the valuations have run pretty drastically. there you can see an opportunity to change it into next year. we're going to leave it there. david fasler. >> you pulled a pete. >> david. thought about that, dave. >> anyway. >> sorry. >> looks like they saved the drama for rem. >> i loved rem. >> athens, georgia. >> it's interesting how he compared the multiples because
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that would imply all the other retailers are trading up theirs and that best buy should catch up. that's another question. >> home depot, absolutely. this was 18 bucks. he took the bull side. great job. it's been on us a while. i will say 45 is going to be key level from when it gets there. >> stock. you like this? >> i do. i wish i would have asked, i spaced out now, but i wish i would have asked him about how long it extends towards that super bowl buying period for the 4 g tvs because we know people do a significant amount of upgrading into the super bowl each year. that's why i think it's beyond just a christmas trade for this particular trade. we'll have to ask him next time michael david straser is still around. >> do you like best buy? >> b.k. has a real hard time buying things that have had a tremendous run. >> even from michael?
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>> michael, bill gates, great call, whatever his name is. >> what's his face. >> my point is, given the choice between best buy and gopro for the next 30 days, i'd rather buy gopro than best buys. times for the stocks and drops. a big drop for ctrip. >> they're still going to grow 30% in the fourth quarter. maybe not tomorrow but this is a company that's delivering on the top line. the streets largely a buy. >> copper dream works up 3%. >> 2014 a tough year. hasbro headlines, they said no. you can stay long. >> hewlett-packard up 4%. >> this is after selling off last night because they had to battle worse than expected earnings. in the p.t. cycle we mentioned that. up here i don't know if i would buy it on friday. you might want to wait for a little bit of a pull back.
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>> pop milan, up 4%. >> when they get sued by baxter, that's not a bad thing. maybe people think they're not going to prevail. volumes go up as well. >> we have a pop here for turkey bowling. terky bowling. folks in cincinnati have found a striking way of saying thank you. using turkeys as bowling balls. they could use their butterballs. sadly, no turkey's life was spared. the kingpin contest was for a good cause. >> that's a great charity. what else do they have to do in cincinnati? >> you know who's singing the song? surf and byrd by the trash men. >> wow. >> not georgia. >> saturday light from athens, georgia. >> and the b 52s.
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>> bitcoin black friday. they're expecting 1200 merchants to participate which will double the number from $6 million. some offering deals will be new days. overstock.come a big cheerleader of bitcoin will not be participating. they will have bitcoins on their own site. the price isn't as cheery. we've been talking to bitcoin for years, years now. >> right. >> the theory had been the more bitcoin is used, that will support the price. we've seen the opposite happen. >> what happened? >> as you get the new merchants coming on -- >> michael. >> you get them named michael, michael david comes on and he decides to take the bit cohn. michael david can't pay his lek tris sfi bill, can't do anything with this. what happens, you immediately look at the currency in bitcoin,
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there's a three-month lag. you see a big uptick in soap tans. then the price starts to go up. that's about where we are right now with the bitcoin price. about three months ago we had a couple of big merchants come on. we had dell come on. saw some of this price go higher. nonetheless, it doesn't matter the price. the technology behind it is really what the revolution is. i think for bitcoin black friday they were targeting 6,000 people. it will be 6001 because b.k. will sign his book. >> yes. >> speaking of book. take a look at this. this is brian kelly's work, "the bitcoin big bang." this could be under the christmas tree, stocking. it's like a seventh night hanukkah gift. >> you could provide seven of
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them. >> we're very proud of b.k. and we look forward -- >> let's throw a book party. >> a book party on monday night. a book is more about the technology and how revolutionary this is. in my opinion bitcoin is the most important thing to happen to money ever, the most technical innovation. i think it will be here to stay for a long time. that's the logical extension of this. >> the whole point is for the first time in human property, no pressure. >> the good news is you'll have an extra night of sales because there's eight nights and not seven. >> seventh night gift. it's so good. the gifts get better night by night. >> get michael. i'm sure he knows. still ahead, this weekend could hold one of the most important days for gold. traders take their positions ahead of the break. much more on "fast money"
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on sunday the swiss will vote on a proposal that could triple the gold prices. what does this mean for gold, the swiss frank and let's bring the president and cio of merk
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investments. >> good to see you. >> that doesn't mean gold is going to pass. where do you stand on this? >> it will mean the vote will not pass. if it were to pass, the swiss national bank will have five years to pass on it. the swiss have been pushing towards the upper limits. i expect there to be probably the biggest reaction. the swiss bank will probably fall versus the euro if it doesn't pass. at the same time it's of course a great debate to have. it's created awareness. that's really the purpose of this initiative. >> hey, axle, it's brian kelly. i'm curious, there was a report saying let's say it happened or any central bank had a rule where they had to buy the gold and they could never sell it, citi bank was talking about it would reduce the value of gold because it would just mean that it's a worthless asset. it could never be sold. they could never monetize it.
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where do you stand on that? >> well, former fed chair greenspan said the other day, i think he said it before, that gold is the only asset against which you don't have to pledge any other collateral. people just take it as is. clearly it's not just governments owning gold it's individuals. with the rise of etf, individuals can own it. it's just a brick. that's the whole point of it. it's a brick. it's a reference value to which everything else can be referred to. the reason the central bank should be prohibited from selling gold is because it's the people's money. when a central bank is able to create money out of thin air, they're debasing the power of the currency where they have any restrictions on it. they can just correspond to what they have in their vault and that's the whole point of it, to impose restrictions. the banks are very much against it because they can't impose the quality they've been imposing in years. >> axle, what does this mean? 18 months ago germany said they want their gold back
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effectively. russia was about to do it. they're amping up their gold reserves. you see the same thing in china. physical seems to be out doing everything else. obviously the price isn't manifesting that, but there was a shortage of silver from the u.s. mint recently. what does that all mean for the physical metal? >> well, it means a couple of things. first of all, if you're in a camp that likes to have that don't trust your government to take it for you, if anybody wants a personal gold standard, they should have the gold themselves or some other way to get the gold. not trust that your government will do it. the swiss could undermine it if it were to pass. having said that, there's a big debate with the discrepancy between the physical and what people call the paper gold. what happened is obviously gold went up for 12 years in a row. that created a derivatives gold market. as people delever, there is a disconnect between the physical dye 3457d and the derivatives demand. at some point, of course, if you
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think that gold is good value, people should appreciate it and buy more. the reason we own gold right away is not because of a crisis here and there, we have too much debt in the world and we'll kick the can down the road. i don't think we can afford positive have rates on a sustained basis over the last ten years or anyplace else in the world. >> actsle, leave it there. happy thanksgiving. >> happy thanksgiving. >> merk investments. i get the reason for owning gold but it has been a horrendous trade. >> certainly for the last year and a half. i think it's going lower. i think the swiss referendum is a binary event. what are the ten-year rates telling you? gold is going lower. if we're going to 204, 205, gold is going to 1150, call it 1100 which gets you somewhere six months into fed policy post crisis where they're pushing gold higher. i don't think it goes back to the 975 level which is where buy started this mess but it's going to 1100.
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there could be a rally in the short term. >> will you see any positioning in gld or others? >> we weren't seeing it. i agree with tim and i think that a lot of the hedges that were lifted as gold ran from 1100 up to let's say 1400 where most of the hedges were lifted, they had a big profit. none of them to our knowledge have increased or gone back to those hedges so i bet a lot of them wish they had stuck to that. >> quickly on trade, the bottom line. would you be long euro swiss frank as you mentioned? >> yeah, you could do that. i don't think there's a lot of up side. it somewhat catches it. the risk/reward is not great. i disagree with these guys. it's going higher. there are buyers in this market. just ahead, how much is your dinner really costing you. jane wells tells you which things are raising your checkout at the register. plus green mountain coffee straight ahead.
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it has been a great year for shares at green mountain. if some traders are betting right it is about to get better. mike, what do you see? >> we saw about three times the call to put ratio today.
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so the activity where we saw most of that call buying was actually the 144 calls that expire next friday. that's not this week but on december 5th they were paying about $2 for those. those guys why making bets that keurig green mountain could be above 144 by that $2 or above 146 in ten days. >> all right, mike. thanks for that. happy turkey day, mike ko. >> same to you. gobble gobble. >> by the way, gobble gobble happy turkey day and happy hump day. we can use all of them. >> look at that. >> i know. >> quadruple witching day. >> it is really amazing. cost of thanksgiving day dinner for the average of ten people has actually gone down in the last 28 years. which items have soared in price? the one and only jane wells is in culver city. jane. >> reporter: you know, melissa,
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everybody is concerned about food inflation. actually, one of the fastest growing parts of the grocery industry is organic food. i am here at sprouts in culver city. while the american farm bureau federation is saying the average 16 pound turkey will cost, i don't know, $21 and change, a little less than last year, the fastest growing hot selling item are these organic happy free range turkeys which cost at least twice as much. while the overall meal for ten is 49.41, that's 31 cents more than last year. this is not where you're seeing food inflation. this is where you're seeing food inflation if you want to have that christmas roast. the federal government is saying that not only have beef prices risen over 11% to record highs, they'll go up another 5% because ranchers are using low feed prices and high beef prices to hold back cows and expand their herd. finally, i am here to help. for the tech savvy, "fast money" trader who is clueless in the
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kitchen, there's now an app for that. >> two tablespoons of extra-virgin olive oil, 5 tbsp in a large skillet. when hot, add the brussel sprouts. >> okay. i am not a gifted chef so i tested out the new app called my chef which talked you through each step of the activity with audio cues, pictures, tutorials. the brainchild of kevin yu who developed games like world of war craft to create what he thinks is a new platform for recipes for shelves like michelle wagner. >> my chef very similar to how a gps works. >> add the crushed red pepper flakes, 1/2 tsp and -- >> gps helps you get to a location by step-by-step instructions. >> well, i burned the garlic, some of it, but i'm going with
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it. >> wow. >> reporter: all right. bottom line, it took a little longer to make this this way, but i think the end result melissa was much better than it would have been even if i burned the garlic. happy thanksgiving. >> happy turkey day. gobble gobble. >> gobble gobble. >> by the way, that app, did it occur to anybody else that it was a sultry setting? >> yes. >> add butter to brussel sprouts. >> cook. you know -- >> got to make cooking more exciting somehow. >> crazy. we come right back. stay tuned. >> announcer: "options action" is sponsored by think or swim by t.d. ameritrade.
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there's a difference when you trade with fidelity. one you won't find anywhere else. one-second trade execution. guaranteed. did you see it? in one second, he made a trade, we looked for the best price, and the trade went through. do the other guys guarantee that? didn't think so. open an account and find more of the expertise you need to be a better investor. what are you guys doing? yoga, it's supposed to make us more productive. better mind and body keeps us efficient. you guys have misread the memo. this is the new lenovo yoga with the intel core i5 vpro processor. it combines the productivity of an ultra book with the
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touch benefits of a tablet. and it's custom configured by cdw. so we can stop doing this? my head hurts. [painful grunts] on this hump day it is time for a pre-gobble gobble turkey day final trade. tim. >> al burton, very thankful for a beautiful wife and kids. >> dr. j. >> xle puts, i bought them today. very thankful for you. >> i'm thankful for all of you sitting next to me. hump day.
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guy, i would bye some slv as my final trade. gobble that up. >> big short interest in that pilgrim's pride, perfect ppc. part of the song. >> yes. >> my country z. >> my mission is simple -- to make you money. i'm here to level the playing field for all investors. there's always a bull market somewhere and i promise to help you find it. "mad money" starts now. hey, i'm cramer! welcome to "mad money." welcome to crammerica. my job is to educate you and teach so call me or tweet me at jimcrimer. tonight i want to talk to you about the big picture, about building wealth in general and not just owning stocks in particular. because st


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