tv Fast Money Halftime Report CNBC December 31, 2014 12:00pm-1:01pm EST
with kids. >> it's such a great night. yes. as we look back at the 2014 look ahead hp new year to you. let's get to wapner and the half. >> it is just about to happen. there are the fireworks. welcome to the halftime show. it is midnight in bangkok where they are ringing in the new year. it is noon on wall street. 12 hours left in 2014 and let's meet our starting lineup for our final show of the year. steven weiss is the managing partner of short hills capital. jim lebenthal. jon najarian is in chicago for us today. and paul richards is here today. and domonic chu is with us as well for the hour. >> our game plan today looks
like this. fight to the finish with only hours to go now in our playbook playoffs, the race for traders of the year is tighter than ever. who will win? and who will lose by a nose? hot ipos the big names to watch in 2015 from an investor on the front lines of the dotcom bust. another great year for stocks. s&p heads into 2015 on a high. but if the recent past is an indication, the new year could get off to a rocky start. a steep slide a year ago and we ask is history about to repeat itself? steve, what do you think? a many similarities. mike santelli points out a number for us today. and in january you had about 6% pullback pretty quickly. >> it was pretty big. part of it was occasioned by the fact people had so many gains they didn't want to book them in
2013 so they waited till the earliest opportunity for 2014 which is january so you have another year to pay your taxes. so that is part of it. also the issues that existed then exist now with the exception of the u.s. stock market which is a little more fairly valued. the fact that we got through it last january i think and the market took notice, investors and traders take notice and we'll get through it this year. i'm not really concerned and nor do i try to time the market on a month by month basis. i think it moves higher. minimum of 8, 10%. >> when markets drift higher and complacency grows the odds rise for adverse news to unsettle the comfortable consensus with a short-term setback. it happened last january down about 6%. market recovered but it wasn't all rosie as the year started. >> nor during the rest of the year as well. there have been bumps. i would expect similar bumps. having said that i'm not going to try to predict january as one
way or the other. i don't think anybody is smart enough to predict that. but what i do think is what you can see is 8 to 10% gains again going forward. you have head winds from a fed that is going to little more aggressive and we all have problems in europe still to deal with. >> and paul, what are you looking out for in? is is it the next ecb meeting. >> it starts with the payrolls. want to see the data print well again. i think it will. and then take it into to january 22nd and i think europe has to move on qe. and it should be a good start for the year for markets. yeah i can see 7 or 8%. but i could see this time in a year -- this market may be flat to down. i think the second half of next year is going to be pretty rough. >> draghi needs finally deliver on sort of the ultimate. talk is cheap. we've said it on the show a number of times.
you have been pretty right on for the calls you made. it has to be pivotal what draghi does to whether the stock market can continue at a time when the fed is starting to step back. >> the problem i've got with qe is it's all europe has got in my opinion. you still have russia and the ukraine, a greece issue looming. they will probably get through it. but overall and you've got france still really struggling with the deficit. so really what has europe got? only qe. and my issue would be this. the u.s. went three times on qe. i don't think the conviction is there to go more than once. what if it doesn't work? and the market is going to be so impatient. what if six months in the market is saying where is the growth? what have they got then is this a lower currency. it is the only thing that the save then. that's why i think we get six months of fun. and the second half of next year needs really close watching. >> can u.s. economic growth drag the rest of the world with it?
>> no. i don't think so. i think we've got the good news in the market right now. and think about the fed the economic growth is so good that we have a conservative yellen whose going to move on rates. >> i agree. but she doesn't have. let's point that out. there is no inflation. >> she signals really well. my point is you are an investor and gone into the market in january. and then go on your summer vacation, they hike rates and we come back from summer vacation. we look at labor day and then the european data is not there, the market's got a big problem. >> and this is a good point paul makes when he says a lot of people getting dragged in. another year of strong gains for the s&p. the level of not euphoria but optimism builds and then you maybe have a little bit of wreckage in january that you have to deal with. >> we saw that this year. the wreckage in january. but it ended up being a good year by the time it was done. same thing over the past couple
of years as well. the january prompter hasn't worked as of late. but it has over time, the stock traders almanac will always say since 1950, the january barometer. that means as goes january so goes the rest of the year. that workout about 70% of the time. and people say hey december is great, does it carry over to january? it's very much to gjim's point mixed picture. the s&p 500 over the past 20 years is up marginally. less than half a percent. it is positive 60% of the time f. but the dow is actually negative. down about . 1% on average. that very much speaks to the mixed bag we're talking about for january and one other interesting part about this. if you dig a lil tydeeper.
we went back and looked which the best performing etf was. and materials the worst performing. so you got one quasidefensive you maybe call it sector, leading the way higher and the worst performer the more cyclical out there. >> sorry. >> no i was going to say and ask doc to get him involved. is it a stick with what worked year nor do we see a change-up? utilities and healthcare led the way. will you see different sectors lead in 2015? are stocks that led the way are they going to lag and are the lagers going to be the lead sners. >> do believe some of the lagers are going to be leaders judge. i've been saying the financials, the xlf takes the leadership rolle along with the healthcare etf as part of the s&p 500.
the healthcare was the strongest this year. closely followed by utilities. i think utilities starts strong as paul richards was saying because of some of the tail winds in the first part of the year. and then when that becomes a head wind in the second part with rising interest rate, that's when i think some of those utilities might not do so well. but as far as january effect, not terribly concerned about it. more worried about things that we can actually take advantage of, which are did people wait too long in some of their winners? there are some huge winners, some of which i missed out on like apple. are people waiting to take the profits? does that trigger the 6% selloff in january? i think in some cases especially with a stock as large as apple is it could do that just and push a little hard on the beginning part of the year if a big stock like that rolls over with profit taking. >> here is a big one.
intel was the winner. ibm was the laggard. which of those two stocks has the best chance of reversing its recent picture? intel? will that be one of the losers? can ibm turn things around? >> there are some interesting stories for either side of these. with intel you are talking about a company that started getting in a lot of favor now because people like this idea that large cap technology can be part of a portfolio, especially ones that pays a 3 to 4% dividend yield. ibm does have a dividend yield but very secular headways this business. you wonder whether or not they can reinvent themselves. they have a strong at least management base we'll call it. rometty has been trying to do
things a little differently. intel, is one of those companies that investors may look even more towards participating in a technology rally. >> one more question before we break. do we fade the cisco and microsoft great years? each up better than 25%. and do we take the money out of those and look for opportunity in energy to a place like chevron and exxon which were two of the worst dow performers that could have a good year. >> two completely different questions. i do think we fade those. it's been an unusual year for big cap tech where you still haven't seen the growth. in terms of energy, i own atlas. i think this on a long long term base i'm okay. but i don't want to bet into next year. venezuela is in deep, deep problems. recession. they have crunches. if they were a junk credit, and they are. they would be very low. so to me and, you know, i think
you got to be a stock picker in this market. but one more quick comment. this was not a euphoric year. i don't talk to anybody. and. >> i wasn't suggesting it was. >> i know you weren't. but the optimism is not there. there are enough negative data points. >> i'm not hearing from any negative people at you will. are you bullish into to 2015? yes. it may be -- but it's not bearish. >> paul, happy new year. seal you no 2015. >> what a rough day for energy. what does that mean for the sector as it limps into to 2015? our next guest says consolidation and he's here to tell you what. and how to play the names that went from worst to first in 2014. and after a record year for ipos could 2015 be even bigger. and it's already getting crazy in time square. a lot of people there already. hope they are happy with their
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play a different way with the energy etfs you want to look at this. right now we know the xle is the one everybody talks about with with regard to tracking the s&p 500 large cap energy stocks. a massive down year to date. if you break down and get more granular about what happens in energy there are two other etfs that both track different parts of the market. the sop tracks the exploration and production companies the one who is source, get the gas and oil out of the ground. they are the one leveraged to prices a bit more. those stocks felt a little more pain but service stocks another ancillary industry build around the oil. the etih is the one that tracks that. those three are whether a lot of traders have been -- >> and -- which tracks crude. >> crude oil. and -- >> let's bring in a trader. morgan downy.
how are you viewing what's taking place in oil right now. how low do you think it goaes? >> i think we've seen the bottom. unfortunately for investors we're going to be stuck in a range between 50 and 60 for pretty much the entire 2015. anyone expecting a quick turn around will be disappointed and one of the reasons is a war of attrition between opec and the u.s. and up in canada. and so it's going to play out six months or a year or longer. >> if i ask the best ways to play this then if you do believe we're near a bottom. you mention fracking. are you looking more at the fraerks rather than oil? >> one of the outcomes of this being a long drawn out war of attrition a lot of fracker, continental resources, in north dakota and west texas, they are
going to be potential merger or takeover targets. and the majors. exxons and chevrons. continental resources have sold off hugely because they are highly leveraged. whereas the exxons are down but only 8, 9% whereas oil down almost 50%. >> so the unloved sibling of oil has been natural gas. cheap forever. cheap on a natural basis and feature cheap relative to oil. is this the year we see more exports. shouldn't we be exporting more natural gas. do you see natural gas exports rampling up? >> i do but it is a very long-term play as in over five to ten years. to export it, the infrastructure required is enormous. >> supposedly we've been building it the last five years. >> starting to. it will take another five years to get it online. so there's not going to be any
turn around in 2015. >> why did saudis in their budget for 2015 use $80 crude if it is going to stay at 50 to 60. >> they approved their 2015 government budget which is almost all dependent on oil. and the $80 people talk about was the break even price if they were not to go into any debt in 2015. but the actual price because they are going to borrow $35 billion. the actual price they are assuming is $65. 80 would be where they don't have to borrow. but their true budget price is 65 colors. >> -- $65. >> once you it's the bottom. does that mean buy the stocks now? >> buying oil or oil stocks because oil is going to go back to up o 80 in 20u is a is not a
good idea at this stage. >> to your point, where people have been buying relatively is chevron and exxon. the major integrated. >> that is because they need a weighting in energy. as they are playing against the s&p and that is the safest way to play it but i think the most money is going to be made and lost in the credit markets. a lot of these are junk credits. they are not going to be able to afford basically the payments. >> the high yield if. >> the high yield -- story that we paid attention so going to grow louder? >> much louder. and a lot of companies have debt out there but obviously not equity. talking to ceos and players in the market, they are loaded up and doing their work. and that's where some fortunes will be made and lost. >> happy new year. >> thank you. >> coming up the companies that could have the hottest ipos of 2015 and the boom and busts of this year.
welcome back. you know what hay say. everyone loves comeback. let's look at the biggest reversals. the ones with a bad 13 but a good 14. >> a lot here. and some into the first half of 2014. so even this year they have had some bad first halves and rebou rebounded. look at the three we found rebounding strongly off their recent 52 week lows. and they just happened the second half of this year. carnival cruise lines. since september 23rd it is down about 20% between then and the lows we saw on october 15th. but since then it's rallied back
nearly 40%. so a strong move higher. and then here is a stock given up for dead by a lot of investors. apollo group for profit education. until early april this stock lost about a third of its value but it's rallied back over 45% since then. that very strong in the second half. and also good year tire. between mid july and the lows we saw in october it lost a third of its value as well. and this stock has rallied about 50 percent since then. so you can see that strong move higher. some of the stocks the sentiment really drives the stocks to really low levels on a relative basis and people step in and find those levels to pick off. >> when you look at stocks that haven't worked that you think might, our robert hum on the news desk just passing a note buying the worst performing dow components in hoping for outperformance in 13 didn't
work. the five worst of 13 were also the five worst of 14. >> yeah and i guess none of us are all that surprised although i didn't call it al all. but the ibm story, i think you are getting a stock here that obviously warren buffet believed in when it was $30 higher and just has not performed. is he going to be proved right? or is he going to have to force changes there? the others the energy play wes know why those are down and as far as the mining caterpillar was able to keep afloat by being a construction play more than mining. but as far as mining that just decimated these guys in terms of ability to out perform like they had for years leading into that. >> so if i give you those five and which of the five do you think has the best chance of turning things around this year. >> the --.
if you look at the market and what lagged quite a bit if you talk about caterpillar, i think it is going to continue to lag. >> mcdonald's? >> no. been negative on mcdonald's for two years. it is a saturated market. i'd rather by shake shack. something new. >> we'll get to that conversation. >> to me they all have their problems. old tired business models that are are so big they can't reinvent themselves. >> we're watching the situation with crude. and king abdullah is in the hospital. let's go to jackie deangeles. >> traders are talking about this. adding a little uncertainty to the crude price as we head into 20 2015. but seeing steep selling
pressure today. when do we test that $50 level? >> i think within a week or so. i think we're going lower. the two things that worry me is i feel like i'm in the same group with a lot of people when i think it is going lower. plus from a technical standpoint the door's been kicked wide open to have a gapping move lower and so far it's not done that. i'm going to attribute it to the holiday markets. >> that is the magenjority of w i'm hearing on the floor as well. brian sutherland you are my vix king. if we do see $50 crude, what does it do to stocks? >> you have to bring it to the equities, definitely. as commodities reach extreme, whether downside or upside. that creates volatility. that volatility in one asset class bleeds into others and you see that come into the equity markets probably. there are companies that lend in the oil services. they are going to have trouble and problems with the credit rating and that leads into equities in 2015.
you are already seeing it with the vix. there is a fear in the market. 2014 was way to ease to be an investor. certainly that is not going to happen. the vix is tell you it is not going to happen. still a good year but you will see volatile moves i believe. >> okay. and weelt be watching closely not. online show today scott but from the futures now team to you guy, happy new year. >> jackie. thank you so much. i'll look for the futures now in the new year. a special edition now of under the radar. four stealth moves you may have missed in 2014. >> what i was looking at was copper. so many times in the last couple years, dr. copper this, dr. copper that. that predicts the economy and so goes the market. i never subscribed and it still don't. and we look at corps toupper hi lows and guess what. u.s. economy still going up.
that's my under the radar play, continue to ignore the so called steady predictors of market health. >> how about you, doc? >>e enter ji. who would have thought somebody with at least a third of their power generation coming from nuke, nuclear energy, would do so well. this has been a huge outperformer. doubling up on a lot of the other what people would focus in. the duke energies and dominions and so forth. this was clearly one of the out performers and i believe under a lot of people's radar. >> how about you jimmy? >> master limited partnerships have had a good few weeks in the face of declining oil prices. there is a reason. they are toll takers, and supposedly agnostic to what crude oil prices are. having said that there is a level of decline at which
exploration companies and production companies go to pipe pipeline mlp and say listen you got oto cut your prices e we're not making any money. and with that and combined higher interest rates are going to cause us to lighten up on mlp prices in 2015. when the dip comes we're going to be in big time. >> dom i don't know if anybody in this building has looked at more stocks than you. >> how about a grocery store chain that is up 63% this year. one of the biggest in the country. we're talking about kroger. ticker, kr. that stock is up 63% in 2014. a consumer staples-ish time play. meanwhile it is competition on the upscale side. whole foods, sprouts farmers market are down 15% this year.
kroger, nobody talks about it as a sexy stock but a 63% increase is pretty good. >> that's sexy to me. >> we're on bubble watch in the tech world. is it time to party like 1999? batten down the hatches and the biggest booms and busts for 2014. the companies with all the hype but none of the profits. plus great ipo examinatipectati the new year and down to the wire in our battle f. three and a half hours to two in '14 tradingwise. back after this. female announcer: get beautyrest, posturepedic,
as we look at the vix, which is up, wow. vix up 10% interday. i just wonder if you think 2015 is a year where we may be talking about the vix a lot and it's going to be a more volatile year. >> i do think so judge. i think ovx is one way to track that crude oil volatility. but i think the vix itself is going to be moving a little more violently here and there. some of the sectors within the s&p 500 we talked about the ones that are hot and not. that push and pull is going to move. but i tell you what, 21 over the last 24 years the vix rises into the end of the year. the reason seems to be people are trying to lock in profits without selling. one way they do it is buying protection. the vix is one of the big places that the very largest players play. i think that is what you are seeing now. just not a lot of players on the
desk to get the calls they want and that's why we're rising. >> the year was 1999. shared belief was hottest sing. haley joel and the oz munds were on a tear. this year's boom and bust ipos. we talked a lot about the big boom, alibaba, etc. >> 275 ipos. 55 tech. a ton in bio technology and healthcare. a good year for ipos but look at some of the ones we picked out. a lot on the tech and bio tech side really turned out eye popping gains. look at say a true car. up 160%. they went public in may. and gopro. is it the next must have? they surged 173% and they are not even at all time highs. they were back in june.
and radius health. it is up 375%. just went public in june of this year. but a couple of big ones as well we speak about often. chinese internet related. down 16%. spun off in april of this year. and king digital, candy crush saga's down 30% since back in march of this year as well. it wasn't all fun and games for the companies but some of the eye popping firsz day pops and valuations get some wonder whethers the like 1999. >> a private investor. he was a senior investor. let's welcome peter to the show live from san francisc to have you on. >> thanks so much. >> it is certainly going to be a head line name driven ipo market. uber, airbnb.
shake shack. you're expecting a big year. >> i talked to the bankers and investors in the area and everybody is hoping to get a day off for the new year but then it is going to be right back at it. the pipeline is very full i think. >> do you have your eyes on a name specifically that you think will be the standout. >> no specific knowledge but uber is a have been interesting company. airbnb. and the names not quite as well name that are quite interesting in the b 2 b swas. companies like box. there is an australian company and perhaps at nexus. >> are you -- >> i am not. >> what do you make of valuations of some of these companies? we've slapped pretty large valuations on companies that in some cases have yet to earn a dime. >> yeah. good companies do well in the long-term. there are some really good companies out there with very disruptive business models and that will always bring a high
valuation. also things have changed in the last several years. the jobs act allows companies to stay private longer. so these companies are bigger and more mature. also the investors that are driving these late stage valuations are investors that we would have seen in the public markets just a few years ago. the large mutual funds, asian strategic investors and also sovereign wealth funds. we may be seeing a group of companies that get public later and more mature but still very good companies. >> so what do we watch for in terms of warning sign when this is all going to end? because when it falls it is going to fall hard? prior cases we went to 2000, there were just so many that we just had complete saturation and the market was ready to come down too? what do we look for at this point? same thing, market related? or is that uber comes out at 80
billion and things fall apart. >> there will always be companies with relative hi high valuations in good and bad markets. but what makes a good o long-term investment, companies with great management that have profitability or moving towards profitability and have great markets. if you look back from the dotcom period we have companies like amazon that have shown what great companies can do. there is also a lot of psychology in the market. if you look at the 1999 period or the real estate market into the late 2000s. you hear things like oh so much demand for real estate and dotcom stocks. that is not true today. there is real price discipline. people are being more selective can companies going public are much bigger also. in 2014 about 20 billion in revenues. in 1999 there were about 17 million in revenues. those are companies that
shouldn't have gotten public. the market is much more concerting today. >> the former cfo of rocket fuel and the former cfo as well of market watch. our call of the day is about facebook, certainly one of the biggest ipos in recent memory. shares have more than doubled since going public. and today topeka makes the it the top pick for the third year in a row. is this the right call to make? >> as far as the space, judge, i think facebook is the best player in the space. as far as me being involved in social media. i use it but i don't invest in it a lot. i was lucky enough to make a decent call on facebook when the stock was in the allow 70s and shot up here to the 80s. as far as twitter i've been on the opposite side of that one. i still think twitter is in a world of hurt, judge.
and it's just a matter of time before bob pek ends up being right and they have new leadership there at twitter. >> interesting. we've heard a couple of analysts say amazon is their top pick for 2015. what do we think of the facebook call. obvious ily done well. year to date up 46%. >> facebook is the only one i own. i think they are the performer. they have done everything right. and built the businesses while we thought they spent too much in acquisitions. we look at what's happening the user base continues to grow. in terms of amazon, they have been around for so long that we know what their behavior is. so either you buy into it or you don't. but he's shown no indication that he's changing that. so this going to be -- profitability or they break up the company?
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stop taking cialis and get medical help right away. ask your doctor about cialis for daily use and a free 30-tablet trial. coming up on power lunch, big trouble as you know for big blue. ibm the worst performing dow member for the second straight year. shares down 14% in 20u 14. some people are saying though it's putting in a bottom. is it a buying opportunity in the new year? and a after a gravity defieg 2014 these stocks are stocks everybody says are doomed. strong words heading into the new year. we'll tell you which stocks and why. and you might want to call this the moving van indicator. which states p s people are mov in and out of in the u.s. revealing interesting trends. in the meantime fast money halftime report. back to you guys.
>> see you in few sue well you win some. you lose some. the best and worst trades. steve you first. >> slr to last year. american airlines. i'm still there. >> how about worst is this. >> worst trait was tbt. not only short but using the ultraetf to double down the short and that was just a disaster. >> so funny. weise's worst trade turned out to be one of if not the best trade that you made in all of 2014. >> yeah. but, you know, i respect the heck out of steven. >> the point being is you were on opposite sides of the rate view. that is basically how you played it. >> true. >> it was a great call by doc. >> and mine was based on the mario draghi and abe continuing to push rates lower on those
spheres which put pressure on ours. lower for longer. i think it continues to play out for another six months. my worst trade, got out of apple at 88 and never really was able to get in for more than a buck here and there so missed had next 30 bucks of upside. i still kick myself for it. >> why did you get out of it then? >> luckily i was in from 80 to about that 88 level. and i thought the financial engineering and all the rest was just smoke and mirrors, judge. but then the iphone 6 came out with the 6 plus and the 6 plus really provided that boost i think. now we'll see whether or not the iwatch continues to support the ecosystem. >> which of you been skeptical of. >> i'm very skeptical of. >> best investment was to hold intel from start to finish. a great year for intel.
the worst was ibm. and i'm going konl out and say it that i think ibm is going to be a great stock next year. i don't think they will be a three-peat of the worst performer. i got it wrong in 2014. so it is my worst trade. but the thing i'm looking at now is they have earned $16 this year. they grow from here. >> come up, just a few trading hours left in 2014 and the fight to the finish is on in our competition for trader of the year. who can make a lost minute play to steal the top spot? it is that close. the leader board when we come back.
barely over murphy. pete and john after that. doc, you have not made a trade the entire year. why not make one now? throw a hail mary. >> it's the end of the day trade. those were the rules. next year different rules will be able to make a trade every week. this one all the trades are based on the end of the day so i would have had to do a trade yesterday. >> how about the strategy? this buy and hold versus joe and murphy. they were much more active in that than you and your brother who basically made no trades. i don't think pete made one. >> i like the portfolio i had. liked baker hughes. liked broad com and intel. had all of those in the portfolio along with inger solrand. i still believe in those stocks.
i was very happy with the portfolio. the format changes so there will be a little more trading. still no options but will be more trading. >> your take being more tactical as a trader or being a buy and hold investor. both can work. if you are going to be a picker of stocks you better pick good ones and these guys did, that being murphy and joe. >> you have to take into fact there are transaction costs, attrition costs. when i was on the buy side you had to worry about those things, about the transaction costs. remember this year active managers on average, the stock pickers, the ones who seek alpha have under performed. again, people come on both sides of this argument and they will swing back and forth from year to year. this year and the last couple of years it has always been about the beta guys. >> if i were pete i would play this into protest. he had a stock taken out. that would have put him nicely
welcome back. you first. we are still on the air. give me your new year's resolution. you can wait to talk to your buddies. we are still on the air. >> new year's resolution is to be more like my brother, pete, let the winners run. i have been cutting them off too fast. i haven't let the winners run. my resolution is to do that. >> believe in myself a little bit more. let my picks stand on their own. just believe in myself and my picks. >> i have to get rid of -- i'm so negative on it that i robbed
myself the opportunity to get involved. >> trading on emotion is a tough thing. >> it is analysis. you have to have prejudices as an investor because that keeps you solvent. you have to be able to look past. >> i am not a trader like you guys. what i will resolve to do is stick to my budget, be a little more personal finance oriented. take fuel price savings i get at the pump and pocket them and save them. >> maybe use them on clothes. >> maybe buy a new top or something. >> best dressed. >> i have to follow. >> give me a final trade. >> cliff, brought it today. >> coming on was vsx. i still like it. i want protection going into january. >> could be rocky if history repeats itself. >> i'm consistent long ibm.
>> that does it for us. have a happy new year. thank you for watching this program. we will see you in 2015. and there you have it. no time zone look as thoet whacky guys and gals at the cme. the rest of chicago and the central time zone needs to wait another 12 hours or so. they are celebrating early in chicago. tyler is out today. simon and bob are down at the new york stock exchange. >> still an hour and a quarter to trade over there. three hours here on the floor of the new york stock exchange. there is an atmosphere. >> they are happy down here. we have had a good year overall. business has been good. let's hope it continues into 2015. the problem is oil. that is a little bit of the issue. take a look at the s&p 500. we went down