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tv   Fareed Zakaria GPS  CNN  August 24, 2014 7:00am-8:01am PDT

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thanks for watching "state of the union". this is cnn breaking news. >> this is "gps, the global public square." welcome to those in the united states and around the world. northern california residents had a rude awakening early this morning. a 6.1 magnitude earthquake hitting six miles south of napa
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just north of san francisco putting 15,000 people at the center of violent tremors. it is the single largest seismic event in california since that 1989 quake that struck during the world series 25 years ago. local rescue officials continue to survey the region for damage. the early reports so far homes rocked askew. thousands of people without power. streets buckling, storefronts crumbling. one hospital telling us a few moments ago that they have treated 70 patients so far. none of those injuries, though, life threatening. structural fires burning across town dotting the napa valley with the potential for gas leaks local law enforcement officials are rushing to free people trapped at this moment in their homes. so far luckily no casualties have been reported. it will be a while before we know how much damage this quake has done.
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california's governor jerry brown issued a statement urging residents to stay calm and insuring them that saftd officials are doing all they can to help residents and those living in affected areas should follow their guidance and instruction. geologists say more than 100,000 people felt very strong shaking, the earth literally moving beneath their feet. i want to go to jennifer gray. 6.1 on the richter scale. can you tell viewers where this struck? >> it was about six miles south of napa. folks felt it anywhere from 35 to 40 miles away. most after shocks have been very minor. we did have one of about 2.5 a couple of hours ago. in the past hour or so we had another one of about 3.6. in the next 24 hours it is a
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crucial time. in the next seven days after shocks can be felt days, weeks, months down the road. the next seven days is really the most crucial time for the after shocks and the probability of a magnitude 5.0 or higher is about 54% with an earthquake of this size. earthquakes larger than mainshock is less than 10%. 54% of an after shock of about 5.0 or greater in the next seven days. those after shocks are of concern as we move forward in time. most of those are going to be very, very small. just take care and use caution when you are going out in the streets. it is still early over on the west coast. some of the structures are going to be very, very weak. as you are assessing the damage be careful. those after shocks are still a possibility over the next couple of days and weeks.
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>> anytime a quake like this strikes close to the ocean and coast line concerns about asieh namd namdar -- concerns about tsunami warnings. >> no tsunami warnings. that was good news. >> thanks very much to jennifer gray in atlanta. we are still piecing together how bad the damage is in and around napa. that is just north of san francisco. things could get worse. about 30 minutes after the initial quake hit an aftershock ripped through the area shaking the napa region. i want to bring in cnn producer augy martin in san francisco. from the ground what have you seen and heard on the ground there? >> reporter: with day break about 30 minutes ago the light ought to help authorities with their efforts to survey the damage and try to rescue those that are trapped.
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i am actually in san francisco proper about 25 miles south of the epicenter. it was a fairly good shake down here that lasted for about 25 or 30 seconds. it was a softer rolling type earthquake. sometimes we get these very sharp jolts. this was one of the earthquakes that was more of a rolling type of earthquake. it was felt over a very wide spread area. some earthquakes are felt not over a very wide area typically because they are deeper. this was felt over a very wide area down to san jose and south of there. it did take place in napa on a fault that was not the san andreas fault which is the one that typically gets the publicity, but in famed wine country. >> we are playing live pictures
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from the quake area today. we are seeing a house on fire there. this is a great concern for firefighters because of gas leaks, et cetera. for viewers who haven't felt an earthquake before can you describe how it felt when you went through this a short time ago? >> there are two types of earthquakes. there is one that gives off a sharp jarring jolt and then other ones are almost wave like that are softer and have a rolling feeling to them. some of it will depend upon what type of earth surface you are on whether you are on sand or bed rock. in napa a lot of the ground is sandy based that used to be part of san francisco bay many millions of years ago. in san francisco where a lot of us are on bedrock this was a
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very rolling, if it is possible to call it a gentle earthquake in some regards, a strong but gentle earthquake. at least where i was it wasn't a superjarring jolt. it is very startling especially when it happens in the middle of the night. even to native californians it is jarring bh you are awakened by shaking. >> no question. it's an unnerving feeling for anyone who has been through it. thanks very much. a reminder to our viewers you are seeing live pictures from the san francisco area. the after math of this 6.1 earthquake which struck in napa valley just north of san francisco. we want to get perspective on the size of the earthquake and impact. joining me on the telephone seismologist as well as director of global alliance for reduction, walter hayes.
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can you put this quake into context in terms of size. 29 years ago since a 6.9 earthquake caused so much damage in san francisco. this is 6.1 on the richter scale nearly one-tenth the power? >> that is the confusion. it is nearly 30 times weaker. >> because it is both amplitude and energy. it is the wave motion of the quake, is that right? the ground shaking? >> they use the waves to determine the magnitude number. the magnitude number is a measure of the energy released. it was nearly 30 times more energy than this one. it would take 30 of these to equal one. >> this is still causing and we are seeing live pictures, walls that have collapsed.
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there are homes on fire. that is still even at 6.1 we are getting an update now that estimate is lowered to 6.0. this is still a large earthquake. you only have 100 or so higher earthquakes per year. >> around the world. one magnitude eight, ten sevens. california doesn't always get its share of them. other parts of the world get the share. this is still -- it would take 30 of these to equal. >> we are seeing the power of it now on the air as we look at live pictures. walls collapsed, buildings partially collapsed. fires in the napa area. >> augy was talking about the long period waves that gives the
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rolling motion. the jolt is the p wave that causes interior damage, contents to fall over. more destructive to the taller buildings and weaker buildings. >> let me ask you quickly, there is a lot of talk of the ring of fire, the plate that surrounds the pacific and connects earthquakes and volcanos in japan, chile. does that increase the chances of a major earthquake, the big one, in the san francisco area in the near term? >> it takes time for the areas to accumulate. california has had plenty opportunity to accumulate. more likely in southern california than northern california. don't ever rule out any place. 1847 the big one in the los angeles area.
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you have plenty of faults. 7,000 in california. and where this earthquake in that region and it is more damaging to a city at large than the san andreas. it is farther away from the big area. this one is right there. that's the reason it's got everybody's attention. >> thanks very much for helping put this into context. you are seeing live pictures of the after math. we are going to hear more on the latest in napa. coming up on gps the u.s. is weighing military strikes against isis in syria. can the obama administration team up with syrian president bashar al assad? we will get fareed's take right after this. there's a reason no one says
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welcome back. you are watching live pictures here from napa, california. the after math of an earthquake. we are going to bring you the latest in a few moments. another looming humanitarian crisis overseas which the united nations warns could escalate into ethnic cleansing. weeks after the yazidis nearly became the victims of a genocide, 5,000 families subsisting only on what iraqi
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helicopters could deliver. there has been only one food drop over the last ten days. back in washington the obama administration continues to wrestle with how to deal with the isis threat. the military has carried out some 94 air strikes since august 8 and while defense department officials say targeted air strikes have wounded isis joint chief chairman has said isis cannot be dealt with without addressing it on both sides of the iraqi and syrian border and said they will not telegraph their punches going forward. you have some lawmakers calling for more air strikes after isis executing american james foley and uploaded the evidence for the world to see. each week gps brings you fareed's take on the news. this week he was able to join me earli
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earlier. i asked him about the growing international alarm towards isis. >> the level of concern about isis is very deep, very different from what i heard only a few months ago. there is a sense that isis has become what al qaeda always wanted it to be. remember the world al qaeda means base. since 2001 al qaeda has not had a base. it has been running around in mountains and caves. isis is developing a very large, deep and sophisticated base. it has financial base and by some estimates making $1 million a day. it has the ability to sell oil and wheat at a bargain and has this extraordinary military capacity. that military capacity is morphing in the wake of american air strikes. it is moving from an open ground strategy, taking towns, to a guerilla strategy, hiding within towns. all in all if you look at that
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this is the most significant terrorist organization i think we have really ever faced. >> it's an alarming thought. you mentioned it has a military base there but it also has a base of support. it represents something for sunnis. >> that's the core of it in a sense because they have been able to take so much land and move within the population. mao always said gorillas swim like fish in the water meaning the locals have to be friendly otherwise they are not able to stay there. what has happened is isis has stepped into the sunni discontent, the sunni discontent about being ruled in syria by this minority sect. in iraq being ruled by persians which is how they regard the
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shi'a government. that reality is in many ways at the heart of it. there is another piece which is some of the military machine is back and that is back in the form of isis. you see some of the characters in mosul. that is the old skeleton of saddam hussein's army. >> others have been concerned about this for some time. now that the u.s. is considering more military action, is it safe to say the u.s. is at war with isis? in the region do you find that because of the concern there that others are willing to join the u.s. in a really fight against isis? >> i think now i'm beginning to sense that awareness and that
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willingness. look at turkey, for example. in some ways the isis problem was fuelled by turkey. the turks began their opposition towards the assad government in syria saying we don't want assad. we are going to find a moderate opposition. they tried to stand up a moderate opposition and created the syrian free army. it didn't really go anywhere. these guys weren't great fighters and weren't able to fight. at that point the turks decide just let anyone into syria. that strategy of letting anyone in fuelled the worse kinds of people going into syria and forming and building what is now isis. so everybody now has had a kind of wakeup call. there are many, many debates about what you can do and how you can do it because isis is strong enough that air strikes alone are not going to defeat it. fighting from iraq alone probably won't defeat it. the real challenge is what do you do in syria?
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you do not have powerful, capable moderate forces. the only force that is battling isis in syria is, of course, the army of assad, the government of syria. the united states and turkey are both opposed to it. that is the strategic conundrum. we don't know how to get at isis in syria. iraq is easier and they can recoup and rebuild. >> does this change the strategic calculus for the u.s. and the west when it comes to assad? is there an alliance that results from this where the u.s. and west are fighting against isis together? >> there is an old pedigree of this kind of thing in international relations. when churchill was asked why britain aligned itself with c. m
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it is not that easy to align ourselves with assad. assad is the reason you have the insurgency in the first place. assad is the reason you have this massive discontent. i don't think in this case, the enemy of the enemy is still your enemy. what you have to try to do is get at the roots of isis' support and that is the sunni discontent. you have to get the iraqi government to broaden out and reach out to the sunnis and start buying or renting the tribes which is what david petraeus did when he was general there in '07-'08. you have to get into syria and start finding a way to develop a sunni base of support that is anti-assad and also anti-isis.
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>> you mentioned how turkey contributed to the isis problem by letting the foreign fighters across the border. i wonder about the u.s. world. president obama called it a fantasy in his words that u.s. military action would have done anything to stop isis's rise. do you think that is fair? do you thing the u.s. inadvertently contributed by not acting in syria earlier? >> what i'm hearing oon the ground here is there are a lot of people who wish the united states had been more involved. they definitely feel like it would have helped but they are also very aware of the reality that isis is a much more dedicated, much more efficient, much more organized fighting force than any other ones around. perhaps it was inevitable that the most intense forces are going to survive here.
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if you look at the ones doing well in syria and have been doing well for two years now. it is groups like isis, these very hard lined religiously oriented forces or they have backing fr backing from hezbollah. it seems to be much more likely that in the highly polarized the extremes went out and the center gets crushed. coming up secretary of state john kerry called isis evil in the wake of american execution of james foley.
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welcome back to "gps." >> president obama shrugged off isis as jv team and martin dempsey said isis is the worst terror group the u.s. has seen. what will the barack obama administration do to deal with that threat. thanks very much for coming on. >> happy to be here. >> the president, as you know, resisted taking military action in syria or arming syrian rebels for years. this week as you know general dempsey said isis worse in many ways than al qaeda. should the administration have attacked isis sooner in syria months ago to stop the rise?
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>> we have been watching this group for quite a long time here assessing its strength and working with partners on the ground particularly in syria to help them develop capabilities to go against isis. just today we, the united states military, are taking strikes against isil inside iraq, taking out some of their fighters and capabilities and we are actively looking at what other options we have, what other tools we can use now to try to degrade this terrorist group's capability. >> if the military strikes are necessary today inside iraq and possibly the administration considering inside syria they are necessary today wouldn't they have had more impact months ago? >> i am hesitant whenever somebody said we only did one thing a few months ago everything would be different today. we have been working with our partners on the ground in syria to help them fight isil and the
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assad regime. it is a tough challenge there. what we have seen since isil grew in strength is the iraqis step up to the plate and push them back from where they have taken territory in iraq. this is a really long-term threat here and we are putting in place long-term strategies to fight them with our partners. >> how long should americans expect to be involved again in iraq and possibly in syria and military action. the president has said months not weeks but i have spoken to generals who have had experience in iraq and say this battle will last years. should the american public be bracing themselves for that? >> we have made very clear that if you come after americans we will come after you. you cannot get away with attacking americans particularly like what we have seen this week in the gruesome activities of
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isil. fighting terrorist groups is a long time challenge. that won't always necessarily be a military challenge. we maintain the capability to strike at the time and place of our choosing. it is not just a military piece of the puzzle here. there needs to be training of partners oen the ground in some similar ways as we have done with the group in yem toon help get partners on the ground more capable. it is a long term challenge and we will stand by them. >> as you know the administration, secretary kerry and president have placed great importance on political settlement in iraq, inclusive government as the key to pushing back isis. you had a horrific attack on a sunni mosque in baghdad just in the last several days. this led sunni politicians to pull out of the all crucial political negotiations. the u.s. has said it is not
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going to do military action without political progress on the ground. with that political progress frozen is the u.s. prepared to continue military action without the political element? >> two points there. first we have said that when there is a new inclusive government fully formed we will look at additional ways of helping. our resistance will continue. what we have seen from the prime minister designate this has been his first challenge even though he is not in power yet but how he responds. he stepped up to the plate and said the right things. he is talking about moving forward with this inclusive process to form a government. so we always knew there would be challenges. this was a horrific attack and something we are very concerned about. but we have process in place here and the prime minister designate is doing the right thi things and moving forward.
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they need to have a government up and running as soon as possible to take the fight to isil. >> if i can ask you about the situation in ukraine. nato saying moved in artillery inside ukrainian territory and firing shelling inside ukraine. an act of war. ukrainians are calling this an invasion. why isn't u.s. calling this a russian invasion of ukraine? >> you have heard us say this is a gross breach of their sovereignty. what the russians did here was unacceptable. we are looking at additional costs to impose. the russians have a choice to make. they can continue these kinds of esclatory actions or they can de-escalate. there is still a diplomatic task to do so and they have a choice for the kind of role they want to play in the world. it is some sort of cold war
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situation or if they want a different future for the russian people. choice is up to them. >> thanks very much. appreciate your comments, as always. coming up on gps, a huge earthquake rocks northern california. we will have the latest for you on the damage and injuries right after this. (vo) ours is a world of passengers. the red-eyes. (daughter) i'm really tired. (vo) the transfers. well, that's kid number three. (vo) the co-pilots. all sitting... ...trusting... ...waiting... ...for a safe arrival. introducing the all-new subaru legacy. designed to help the driver in you... for the passenger in them. the subaru legacy. it's not just a sedan. it's a subaru.
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welcome back to gps. northern california residents still shaken hours after a magnitude 6.0 earthquake interrupted the napa nighttime quiet. parts of the valley sift in tenors. homes falling in on themselves. building fires. at least 70 people have been treated for injuries now. pictures on social media paint a city struggling with chaos.
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the likelihood for casualties is low. the quake put hallway sized holes in buildings throughout the area and crews continue to work to restore power to residents stranded in the dark. california highway patrol is rushing to make sure bridges and crossings have not been compromised by the quake. we have seen pictures of roads buckling. invalley could be at risk for more damage. i want to go to jennifer gray. can you give viewers a sense of how widely and severely the quake was felt around the epicenter in napa. >> we will try to put perspective on it. we heard numbers that over 100,000 people felt violent shaking. that is a large number of people. we know it has happened about six miles south of napa. this graphic illustrates the people who felt the shaking. we know people 25 miles away did feel the shaking. you can see brighter colors of
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orange. about 15,000 people felt some of the most violent shaking right around the epicenter. as the colors get lighter you can see the lighter shades of orskpnge into yellow. 106,000 people had very strong to severe shaking. as you spread out around sonoma we see the strong shaking, what is considered strong with an earthquake 177,000 people. and then as you spread out more of course the shaking gets less and less. we had some very, very violent shaking along with this. it looks like most intense shaking happened right around the epicenter and around napa. you can see where it looks like tall buildings that is population where it is the most densely populated areas right around napa where it looks like most of the people had the most intense shaking as we are seeing from the pictures.
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downtown napa we are seeing structures that suffered a complete loss where we are seeing a lot of injuries right there in downtown napa. >> so you always have the quake and then the after shocks. how severe are the aftershocks expected to be and how long does that period last? >> you can have it days, weeks, months, years after an earthquake. we have had several of the aftershocks, more than 20 for today. a lot of those very, very minor. we had a 2.5 a couple hours ago and then another one of 3.6. the probability of the next 24 hours to even seven days is the most crucial time where you want to be on guard with these after shocks. the probability for the next seven days of an aftershock with magnitude 5.0 or greater in this case is 54%. that was issued by usgs. that is what we are really going
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to be looking for, magnitude 5.0, 54% during the next seven days. >> so certainly not over it and they are measuring the damage there in northern california. thanks very much to jennifer gray in atlanta. america's top general says isis cannot be defeated unless the u.s. brings the fight to them inside syria. does the pentagon have the intelligence it needs to wage war in that country? we will ask michael hayden right after this.
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united states top general told reporters the border between iraq and syria is nonexistent. would the president align interests even with bashar al assad to hunt down isis? joining me now michael hayden, now a principal at the group. when it comes to isis i think a concern for americans is what is the direct threat to them? it is my impression there is a debate as to how imminent that threat is. you have a school of thought that they certainly aspire to attack the american homeland and have a number of americans among their ranks, perhaps 100. the fbi put out a report saying no credible threats yet. where do you stand in that debate? is it more imminent or less imminent? this is a future threat or clear and present danger?
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>> you have outlined it perfectly. this is a question of timing, not of inevitability, not of intent. right now i think it is fair to say that isis is a very powerful local terrorist organization and probably a reasonably powerful regional terrorist organization but one that has global ambitions. it has the tools. american passport holders, european passport holders. it expressed the intent. if it is not tuesday it's at a time and place of their choosing. it will come probably sooner rather than later. they are in a competition with al qaeda prime. there is no way more powerful to express their street credentials among the jihadist community than a successful attack against the west. >> to be clear you are saying it is a matter of time. >> certainly the west in general. of course, and americans and
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american interests in the region right now are at risk. >> it's an alarming thought. one issue with attacks like this is that they may be launched with very little warning. is this something the intelligence community is concerned about that it will happen and they won't have credible intelligence first? >> that is right. we kind of under estimated our opponents in the past. we certainly did that and lacked imagination with 9/11. we kind of did that with al qaeda and the arabian peninsula. we know they were up to something. we just didn't think it would be a nigerian on an air liner. it is not just about defense. it is not just about keeping the right people off of aircraft. it's about offense. it's about disabling isis. it is about making them more worried, more consumed with protecting their own survi
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survivability. >> here is an issue i talked to intelligence officials a number of times about. that is because the u.s. was not more involved on the ground in syria, better contacts with some militants groups there that u.s. intelligence on the ground in syria is nonexistentially hampered. that presents a problem going forward if you decide to take out targets from the air. is the u.s.'s ability to confront isis damaged by the fact that u.s. did not get involved in syria earlier? >> i think it might be damaged. i think we have a good intelligence laid out. it may not be good enough to decide who exactly we are mad at and not mad at in terms of taking lethal action against isis leadership. i think the point now is we need
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to flood the zone using our technical means of imagery communications intercepts and human penetrations as dangerous as that might be and relying and cooperating with our friends in the region to get ground truth that enables us to conduct targeted operations with the kind of exquisite intelligence that that requires. i agree with you. we are not bad along the line of confrontation in iraq right now as you can see by the success of the strikes to date. >> you talk about cooperating with oo with u.s. allies. what about cooperating with u.s. enemies? we find ourselves in the odd situation of being on the same side as assad in the fight against isis. do you see potential for cooperation, intelligence sharing on isis targets so that the syrian air force can strike
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them? is that a possibility? is it already happening? >> i have no indication that it is already happening. and i probably wouldn't put it in the box of not possible. someone may reconsider that at some point in the future but right now i think that even though it might be convenient, even though it might accelerate some tactical knowledge i think at the strategic level it would be very, very deinstructive. we did cooperate with assad's intelligence services during the war in iraq trying to stop that pipeline of foreign fighters going through syria into iraq. it was a very unsatisfying relationship. >> do u.s. air strikes trully make a difference against isis if they proceed in syria? the u.s. tried air strikes against al qaeda pre-9/11 that didn't work. >> the pre9/11 air strikes were
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demonstrations, statements of resolve cruise missiles or a medical factory in the sedan. the kind we have conducted in pakistan over the past decade with great effect and very positive results. >> do you believe u.s. air strikes in syria would make a difference? >> they would. they are probably not as effective and probably not as numerous or as advisable as the kind of attacks we have going on in iraq where our intelligence is more mature. we cannot let isis and leadership have a safe haven. i referenced the fight in pakistan. we have experienced safe haven with regard to what we are trying to do in afghanistan. that is not a winning hand. >> former director of the nsa and cia. thank you for joining us. from 2000 to 2011, on average 17 manufacturers a day shut down in america.
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thank you for watching "gps." reliable sources starts right now. this is cnn breaking news. good morning. it's time for "reliable sources." i want to welcome viewers here in the united states and around the world. on the west coast a 6.0 magnitude earthquake has woken up the san francisco bay area this morning. the quake's epicenter was six miles southwest of napa