tv Politics Public Policy Today CSPAN September 18, 2014 5:00pm-7:01pm EDT
identified ebola a few days ago. and yesterday a senior official of that agency declared that the crisis we're facing is unprecedented in modern times, pointing out that the number of those infected have doubled in 21 days. this is undermining the social and economic stability of these countries which are emerging from conflict which they have been -- where they have been pushing ahead with the determination in respect to peace building processes. the threats to international peace and security have extended beyond the that additional borders of armed interand intrastate conflicts. therefore when there is a general threat that threatens the stability and peace in a region or area that is in the process of building peace and supported by the united nations missions, this council, within
the purview of its competences and representing the international community, must adopt the necessary decisions that would ensure the conditions needed for those infected countries to adopt and implement the technical measures and the specific policies they need to tackle the emergency. the international community must act with the resources and institutions at its disposal, such as the case of the peace building mission. since these three countries are part of its agenda. there's also a need for necessary cooperation between the affected states and the united nations and regional and sub regional organizations. and with the states and do nra agencies so as not to duplicate efforts and optimize the use of their resources. although chile recognizes that a peace mission is not a public health operation, we should look
into such as in the case of liberia, how we can adjust the work of that mission on the ground so as to afford the necessary collaboration to the authorities of those countries affected without overlooking the need for protection and security of humanitarian and health workers and peace keeping. one of the critical points that we need to address in this crisis is to find effective methods to break the chain of the virus which has greatly affected and to a great extent, women and vulnerable groups. in this regard we should place emphasis on education and health staff so as to eliminate prejudices about this virus and to avoid stigma tie zags and to ensure that communities and families play their rightful roles. based on the study that was
published yesterday by the world bank, if the virus continues to expand in the most affected countries, the economic impact increase eight times over with potentially catastrophic kouns consequences and it recommends the implementation as soon as of measure to contain and provide stem the uncertainty. it is for this reason that it is necessary for us to launch this so there are no restrictions on the field of persons and trade any sberps of air services and sea services causes blockade that would make the economic impact even more veer severe ine countries and increase fear in those countries. these are measures that are not support bid studies that point to the danger of these operations. finally chile appreciates and yushd scores the international
solidarity of cuba, the united states and united kingdom, as well as the african union among others whose rapid response are helping in this matter. likewise, we are pleased at the correct decision of the secretary general to support the work and establish a global coalition against this epidemic. thank you madame president. >> i now give the floor to his excel lency, minister for foreign affairs of liberia. >> madame president, distinguished members of the u.n. security council, deputy secretary general, dr. when, dr. navarro, distinguished ladies and gentlemen.
i bring you greetings from her excellence, president of the republic of liberia, as well as from lie beerians both at home and aproud. liberia commends you for elevating the 0 be la crisis on to the agenda of this party and bringing into sharp focus the urgency of international action. we hope that today's deliberations will spur a response from the global community commiserate with the speed and intensity of the ebola challenge. until the 22nd of march 2014, when the ebola virus disease invaded or country and begun to wreak havoc in a small city that
sits along an area adjoining liberia, the lie beerian people have been enjoying the dividends of peace achieved in 2003, following 14 years of blood and civil conflict. during these years of calm we have succeeded in institutionalizing the democrat culture and begun to take some strong steps with the support of the u.n. and other international partners to address the legacy of social economic devastation that the lie beerian civil war equipped. since the ebola outbreak, the government of liberia has taken a host of measures, including awareness and campaigns to address the denial and the
deeply rooted traditional practices that create fertile ground for the spread of the disease. we also declared a state of emergency and are continuing to dedicate significant amounts of our own resource to the fight. we have also enlisted the constructive involvement of our people in the battle as we constantly review and revise strategies to accommodate the evolving nature of the crisis. in spite of our efforts, those of our international partners, w.h.o., msf and the united states center for disease control, the ebola disease continues to sprint faster than our collective units to contain it. it has now extended its deadly
embrace to 2,000 persons in liberia, leading to the loss of 1,500 precious lives. 170 of our small community have already been infected. unfortunately, that women are the bumming of our health care workers and are traditionally are the ones who care for the sick family members, nearly 70% of all of those affected by the ebola disease are women. the huge toll ebola has taken on health care workers in our general health system has seriously under mind our ability to adequately respond to routine illnesses such as malaria, typhoid, measles and diarrhea. an increased number of pregnant
women are dying while trying to give life. even bf the outbreak we were grappling with challenges that include finding productive employment for a significant number of our people, especially the youth. strengthening the law, implements measures for reform. we were full involved in peace consolidation activities. the peace building commission. and we were making valiant efforts to comply with regional protocols aimed at curbing this. the ebola outbreak has distracted our attention from these national priorities and gravely undermine our ability to address them.
it has affected our country and region. the impact of ebola have been much multidimensional. it's negatively affected all sectors of our economy, effectively arrested the progress of our nation. preliminary estimates points to a decline in gdp growth of 3.4%, plummeting from an earlier protection of 5.9% to a low of 2.5%. the mining, agriculture services i expect to bear the gratest brunt of the crisis. as we move daily, the loss of a family member, a friend, a fellow citizen as a result of ebola, we're getting increasi increasingly concerned about the long term social economic difficulties that an ebola virus
disease will -- madame president, members of the council, liberia expresses its profound appreciation to the secretary general for his many initiatives, including his announcement today of a new u.n. mission to scale up the response and mobilize the international community to deliver urgently needed support in a coordinated manner. we think the wider international community, including the african union for all of the efrlts and the resources that have so far been dedicated to the fight against ebola. the lie beerian government and people offer deep gratitude to president barack obama and the people of the united states. the u.s. government will take a
host of bold and concrete initiatives, including the deployment of engineers, medical personnel and equipment to our region to establish new treatment units and to train national staff. as a major power, the united states has made a major move. and it is our hope the new additional contributions will be foster coming to our region in true compression of international solidarity. madame president, while we commend some members of the international community for lending hands of solidarity and empathy to us as we grapple with this virus, we're shocked and remain concerned by the actions of others in imposing travel and other restrictions on ebola infected countries. these actions which run counter
to advise from w.h.o., border on blanket stigma sty zags. we therefore call upon the concerned members to reconsider their policies in light of the this, provided by the specialized international agencies. madame president, the experts put out a very gloomy prognosis for what will happen in the next few weeks or months if the glol community fails to take bigger, bolder and timely action to disrupt the further transmission of ebola. just three weeks ago the w.h.o. estimated that 20,000 persons run the risk of being infected. half of whom, they come from
liberia alone. two days ago president obama, while appropriately declaring the ebola epidemic a potential threat to global security, expressed fears that if current trends continue, hundreds of thousands of people may be infected by the virus. the global community cannot remain passive and allow these apocalyptic ideas come to pass. the sober reality is that we are not watching a prerecorded movie of with a predetermined outcome. we, the infected countries, institutions, individuals of good conscience across the globe are all actors in this e valves
plot. it can effect the ultimate outcome based on what we do or fail to do. it will be tragically sinful if we fail to act quickly, robustly and con ser tifly in putting an toned the spread of this deadly disease. therefore, we thank the security council for the forward looking resolution here today. we encourage all member to support the resolution through concrete actions. let us all join in against ebola. thank you, madame president. >> i thank his excel lency for his statement. i now give the floor to his excel lency, mr. francois, minister of foreign affairs and
againians abroad of guinea. >> thank you, madame president, secretary general, ladies and gentlemen, members of the council, ladies and gentlemen. it is a pleasure for me at the outset to express to the u.s. presidency the deep gratitude of our government. typically the president of the republic for having exceeded the request of, joint request of the tree states of the organization to put on this agenda this crucial issue. i am talking about the terrible epidemic of the hemorrhagic fever of the ebola virus. i would also like to thank all of the members of the council and commend the director general of the world health organization, dr. margaret chen. but also the presence of dr.
david navarro, system coordinator for ebola. my delegation is pleased that you have unanimously adopted the resolution 2175 and there have been a very considerable number of states who sponsored this, 130 from the organization. there by, ladies and gentlemen, the council demonstrates your clear comprehension of the urgency of the need for a global concertive effort for the entire region intends for our collective security. beyond the health air aspect and the wide spread panic in our peoples, the economic and social consequences of this disease have a negative impact on growth of our states and the well-being of our populations.
ebola is slowing down the economic actives and atekts all sections, tourism, trade. this could lead to a decline in the gross domestic product of 2.5%, there by undermineding the development taken by these three countries. despite the courageous measures taken by our state to stem or stop the spread of the disease, this scourge continues its devastation and continue to defy human intelligence. at this juncture if appropriate measures are not taken, humanitarian crisis is looming. we must stop it. we have to stop it. otherwise we could compromise the stability that was won at such great cost by our count troys that are coming out of a long time of political or institutional crisis, or out of war. it's important to underscore that the three countries are all
on the agenda of the united nations peace building commission. as such, the international community understands the need to take ownership of this fight to root out this scourge which truly stymies the sustainable environment that we're seeking. also, it's meant to strengthen the society of our states for closing borders, restricts flights, stigma tie zags of victims, the isolation of countries, the returning of nationals is an arm or weapon that is more dangerous than the scourge itself to combat as was underscored recently. we should not isolate countries effected by ebola. but everything needs to be done to isolate and eradicate ebola. the security council must
provide oversight to ensure compliance with the recommendations and the international air transportation association to this end. similarly all partners in the same spirit of sol la darety will work to provide the appropriate support to ensure care for the victims, prevention and eradication of the virus. for its part, beginning with the declaration of 21 march 2014. the epidemic of the ebola virus, the government and its partners have been greatry involved in the response to the disease. the epidemic seemed to have been under controlled in mid may. however a resurgence of the number of confirmed cases and the appearance of new outbreak areas were reported early in june 14. this epidemic has speed to syria, liberia, countries on the
border. there by leading to a sub regional crisis. several thousand people have been affected and more than 2,400 have died in the three countries affected and approximately 600 in guinea, mostly women. a national health care decoration was also issued with the framework of the response against the ebola disease. and several days ago the management committee adopted an accelerated response plan for two to six months. a set of preventive measures have also been taken including the establishment of health, sanitary buffers at all border posts, the restrictions of movements of peoples and their screening at all crosses poipts in the country, including the international airport. these measures of security and prevention taken at the departure area of the airport have proven reliable and they justify the maintenance now of
the flights of air france, brussels. wrond this there are many other actions on the ground, particularly awareness of people, strengthening, monitoring, tracking contacts and establishment of regulatory committees. the management to ensure safe and secure burial and disinfection as well as distribution of individual infection and hygiene. today the government has focused on outreach on the ground in order to impact the perception that the communities might have of the disease. the messages in this outreach in the national languages, more people will be alerted, particularly in the rural areas where there continues to be a reluctance with respect to interacting with health care workers in the fight against ebola. despite all efforts undertaken by the government and its partners there are many
challenges to be met and presses needs to be taken care of to stop the spread of the epidemic. we feel ever increasing needs in human resources, nnl materials resources as well. we have indispensable needs in respect to equipment, hygiene kits, medicine, therma flash, hospital beds, et cetera. we need particularly balances, transport vehicles for the medical pers until. the exhaustive list of our expectations is available. this is the appropriate place now to once again thank france, the united states, the russian federation, china, japan, the united kingdom, the european union and several other by lateral and multilateral pat ners who together with the health organization, centers for disease control, the cdc in
atlanta, as well as countries like more rack coand mali who v come forward in security, and trip -- friendship naturally. we see moon's initiative in this to establish the urgent response to deal with ebola. we're grateful to him for this. and we would dare to hope that the security counsel will be part of this momentum and that the scientific global community will be able to shortly deal with the ebola virus, just as they have been able to do against even more deadly viruses. i thank you for your kind attention. >> i thank you for your statement. and i now give the floor to minister of foreign affairs and
international cooperation from sere raleigh on. >> thank you, madame president. let me at the outset express on behalf of the president, my government and people, to you, madame president, and members of the security council for convening this all important meeting. the meeting at this crucial time, particularly as the consequences of this unprecedented outbreak of the ebola virus underscores the heightened concern of the international community. impacts of the epidemic has not only been frightening but also taken a toll on the entire fabric of the three countries concerned. those need to understand
robustly respond to the worst ever ebola outbreak in history cannot be emphasized. let me also convey to although who vigorously have expressed semp thys with the people, by telephone calls, particular united nations in general, president obama, by high level agencies, madame chen on my left. we do appreciate all of these -- also the chairman of the mission. they all came with compressions of sympathy, compressions of good hope and compressions of good wishes. madame chair, we are in an
unfamiliar territory. to date the origins, the symptoms, the threat, the contingent of ebola are not only baffling what are very confusing. ebola is challenging us as a human race. ebola is challenging was at a international level. it's challenging our review of patterns. it's challenging our resolve to address an epidemic like this. all agreed, this is the sr. frs time for such an ep dem uk. it is also challenging our resilience. we've heard it's challenging or level of coordination an our patience in understanding one
another. madame chair, our people live in fear and cannot understand the nature of the disease that's claimed the life and then prevents family members from baurrying their loved ones. all of these measures, the crisis has deepened and the fear remains. there are many steps ahead of our efforts. ebola is an extraordinary disease, extraordinary action. we're in a state of public health emergency. there are high level committees jointly managed by development partners and national authorities. it is not to our liking, but
ebola being an extraordinary disease requires extraordinary steps. because there is no cure for ebola. we do hope that after tomorrow there will be a better sense of understanding on our procedure, given that as of today the sense of fear, we do believe the sense of ignorance, denial and misinformation, these aspects are disappearing. we still have a lot more to do given the facts that ebola is having an exponential spread. as of today, 571 infected, confirmed dead 423. 60% of these are women.
children are very much affected. importantly, even the health facility, the health personnel, we've lost four doctors, several nurses, health caretakers are all gone. as the international community and united nations can testify, having been fully involved in our post conflict peace consulate and peace building activities, we have made tremendous progress in rebuilding the economy and we building the lives of people during the war. sometime last year i was here to join the security council to celebrate the successes we have made in this direction.
today, we are not in a friend capacity. a sad story. a story that is reversing all of our gains, but more particularly if we're not careful, a story that has strong global systemic challenges. it is not only for australia, liberia or republic op guinea. if we don't act fast, it's challenging our human capacities. that's why i do fully appreciate the passing of this resolution today. but i do agree with you, madame president, that passing a resolution is not the end. it is a means to an end. and therefore we need to actualize resolution. but in doing so, i must emphasize that speed is of
essence. accuracy, appropriateness, the flow of funds and support is all very important elements in making aid very, very effective. ebola's aid is a dedicated aid and therefore must rally, be very, very serious in the type of aid that will provide these three countries, the type of responses, interventions that we bring to bear to this country. let me, at this juncture, perhaps, make one or two suggestions. today in the three countries where we laid the foundations of the restructuring of our public health centers, treatment centers have been constructed, lavatoriries have been restored.
yet it has not been known as the center of disease control. for our nature, the president is approaching the people's republic of china for the use or the transformation of a modern, ultra modern hospital that had been constructed to be,ton to be transformed to our disease control to save the country and to save even the continent of africa. all of the countries, develop countries who have sent us for disease control. therefore we would like to plead with the security council to join him in appealing to the people's republic of china. with this center we'll have modern research facilities to be able to understand the origin of such diseases.
it is playing in africa. we have problems understands malar malar malaria, hiv aides, smallpox, chickenpox. but we need a centralized institution where we can take our knowledge forward. so i would like to plead with the security council, including the people's republic of china. the fabric has already been made because the intervention that has been made by china in constructing a treatment center, has just been done within the vicinity of the hospital and will be using the hospital as a holding center, as a treatment center. the treatment center constructed by the united kingdom also will be able to have the use of this building. south africa is helping us with assistance. so i do believe as we go about
to construct prefab treatment centers were holding centers, i think our challenge going forward should be having a center for disease control. as i do this, i would like to appeal to all those institutions who may have been affected by remarks, by comments from the suffering people. there's a saying that when a man is drowning even the sharpest blade will not -- he will not hold it. so i'm particularly to express sympathy, or to express appeal to all of the institutions. i'm sure many of them i've been taken aback, from the media, for
assistance. it's happened simply because there was a time when we had a patient, the last casualty, a woman doctor. i think there was an appeal to the issue for evacuation. but again, lack of understanding. the literature does not have bad hospitals. it has planes. but that's the reality we are now suffering. and they're underground. i also want to appeal that i would not be surprised if the 69th general assembly discussions will be overshadowed by discussions on ebola. i think it is very, very appropriate that by the end of 69 u.n. general assembly discussions, we should be very clear to come up with definit e definitive, definitive conclusions on how to, not only
to contain the spread of ebola, but now to treat ebola but more importantly how to move forward for those countries through panic reaction, they've closed their borders, canceled their flights, shipping arrangements. i want to join my clegs if from liberia and guinea to plead that we go back to normalcy. it just came. nobody knows. i do hope that in the not too distant future it will go back as fast as it came. i thank you. >> we're leaving the last few minutes of this united nations session to join bbc's live coverage from the results of toad's voting in scotland on becomes an independent country.
referendum voting in scotland and we're having some audio difficulties. we'll be bringing that to you shortly. >> so what then? [ no audio ]. >> while we wait to restore the audio with the bbc on the voting results in scottland, we're going to return now to the session on the ebola virus and disease at the united nations. >> -- aid to cubans are working in 32 african nations of which 2,269 are medical doctors.
in addition, cuba is small and poor country trained up to this state and totally free of charge, 38,940 medical doctors from 121 countries. at present, 10,000 young foreign people are studying, 6,000 of them totally free of charge. and this under the principle of continuing to assist the poor while others with resources cover their own expenses, thus contributing to ensuring the sustainability of the cuban health system and our international cooperation. madame president, in this fight against ebola, which should be everyone's battle, cuba has decided to maintain its cooperation and expand it to the most infected countries which have already been informed.
in the rest to have region not affected by ebola and where we have, as we have already said, corporation personnel, we are ready to contribute to the prevention of this disease. the medical brigades that would be sent to africa for the struggle against ebola belong to the international henry reef contention created in 2005 with medical doctors specialized in facing disasters and large epidemics. this response by the government of cuba is a confirmation of the values of solidarity that have guided the cuban revolution, not giving what is left over but sharing what we have. africa is awaiting an immediate response of all u.n. member states and especially those with resources. it is urgent that we all join
this global effort against ebola. humanity has a debt to the peoples of africa. we cannot let them down. thank you very much. >> i thank you for your statement. i now give the floor to his excel ency, the representative of brazil. this is wrong. >> thank you, madame president. i thank you in convening this meeting in an open debate format. i thank the senior u.s. system coordinator and the mid representative. let me also acknowledge the presence of the foreign ministers of liberia, guinea as well as the deputy foreign minister of the republic of cuba. we welcome the s.g.'s announcement of a united nations mission for an emergency
response to be headed by a special representative as the secretary general and look forward to further examining this issue. brazil welcomes this opportunity to reiterate its commitment to assisting our sister nations of west africa to combat the effects of ebola virus. we underline the need to treat the outbreak first and foremost as a health emergency, a social and developmental challenge rather than a threat to security. brazil welcomes the contributions made so far by the international community. and in keeping with your suggestion that this session allow for the announcement of specific contributions, i wish to announce that brazil has shipped emergency supply kits to support local efforts in the three countries in coordination with the local representatives of w.h.o. each of the kits contains
personal equipment and medical supplies to care for patients. together they account for a three-month supply for 7,000 people. the government of brazil announced an additional donation. moreover, the president issued a donation of thousands of tons of rice and bean to the countries most affected by the ebola disease. not only must we strife to contain the spread of the virus, we must also not undermine the peace that the country has gotten. i've convened in my capacity of chair of the peace building commission an informal meeting on 8 september to hear a briefing of dr. david navarro. i also con mend the chairs of
the commission for having convened in august, the first and formal meeting. the statement adopted by the pbc after its 8 september meeting reiterated the commission's intention to serve as a common platform for discussion, information sharing and awareness raising in new york, engaging international financial institutions and u.n. agencies. noting with deep concern, the statement appealed to the international community -- containment measures must be designed in such a way that they do not aggravate acute problems. let me recall that in august 21st when the united kingdom organized an open debate on prevention, the early warning issued by brazil was the only reference to the ebola crisis
and its destabilizing implications for the region. which highlights pbc's role as an early warning agent. madame president, the outbreak underscores the effort to respond to the crisis. as cofarmer of the ngo partners of health who is in liberia this week noted if it had instead struck regions in the other parts of the world -- the crisis in west africa is -- in line with the w.h.o.'s ebola response road map, the coordinated international response being rallied here today should place emphasis in supporting infected and at risk countries by strengthening kpas tis. particular attention should be given to local health workers who are essential for containing
the outbreak but are if not adequately equipped face risks of contention. we express our conviction that the general assembly, the world health organization and the peace building commission are well equipped to deal with the disease and its consequences. this conviction is based in our confidence in the resilience of the peoples and governments of lie beer yoo and guinea who will not allow the epidemic to undermine all of the hard won progress they made in stabilizing their countries and putting years of instability and conflict behind them. let us know that the solidarity and commitment shown in the face of a cause that might affect the entire international community inspire us to promote dialogue in daily business. we're leaving the last few minutes of this united nations session on the ebola virus to
rejoin bbc's live coverage of the results from today eesz vote in scotland on the referendum on becoming an independent country. bbc's hugh edwards is hosting the live coverage. >> -- very fine papers and having a look clearly in -- just in the first half-hour or so we'll get some sense, probably, of the kind of turnout involved. a very dramatic moment. tonight, i should say, of course, don't forget that although people are keeping a close eye on things here in scotland, imagine the intense interest in downing street because david cameron will be following the events there for us and probably will have something to say about them early in the morning. so with me, the bbc's sara smith is with us. she's followed every day of the campaign. i suppose i want you, sar va at
this stage, given that you've been on top of all of this material and there's been lots of claim and counterclaim, let's put that to one side. what does tonight mean? >> it's hard to exaggerate the enormous not just for scotland but for the whole of the u.k. the scottish people who voted today made the most important political decision of their life times. they're not just deciding who's going to run things for the next few years. they have decided the fate of the whole of united kingdom for quite possibly hundreds of years to come. there will continue to be a united kingdom of northern whales and ireland but britain will be no more. there will be two separate countries sharing these islands. that will throw britain's politics into turmoil and
transform scotland. scotland has always been a distinct nation. the campaign have argued that that country would be a more equal, fair and adjust society but a less prosperous country. even if it's a no vote, huge changes coming. the u.k. party leaders have promised more powers to the scottish parliament. that's massive for the u.k. and will affect all of these british aisles. >> if it's a yes vote we know that everything is thrown up. let's talk about the economy brief. pound, oil, debt to be done. britain's standing in the world, its place at the united nations, the role in the e.u., the nature of its defense forces and in n.a.t.o. even if it's not a yes, there is a question mark over the nature
of power throughout the united kingdom, not just here in scotland but elsewhere. this turned into a referendum on power, on the whole political establishment. part of the reason this has run away with itself, this campaign, this sense that the westminster establishment simply did not predict what was going to take place in the last few weeks has been because it's been a verdict in part on them. >> nick, we'll have more later, and sarah, too. we'll be talking to our guests who have joined us. i should point out one thing which is rather important. if you're waiting for an exit pole, well, there's no easy way to say this. you're not going to get one. this is a unique event, it's a one off. we don't believe there's a tried and tested method for doing an exit poll on this scale.
we're all going to have to wait in the old-fashioned way for the votes to be countdown, real votes to be countdown in those 32 areas and the final results being announced by the chief officer in educationen burrow. we want the certainty, let me say this now, the certainty of seeing real votes counted. our team of presenters at the counts, 32 counts led by my colleague who is at the nation's capital. he's on the outskirts and, andy, your thoughts on what is ahead of us tonight? >> this is where it's all going to happen, hugh. politicians, campaigners, journalists from all around scotland are meeting here at engleston for the final total count. we have the world's media here.
it's an extraordinary place. a historic night but not a historic building. we're all basically meeting in a large steel box. it has all the architectural charisma of a cold store. behind me is the second biggest count in the scottish referendum and the news is that the turnout here is astonishingly high, really quite remarkable. i don't know why all the people are wearing vests. it looks like a police federation tea dance. on the other side of the hall ahead of me is the podium where at some point we will find out the fate of the results. i don't suppose we'll get the real results until five or six. by then hopefully we'll have all the politicians who count. >> before we let you go, before
we get a single vote announced, sarah and nick have aligned for us what they think is at stake. given your heritage, i want to ask you what framework you would put tonight's decision. >> i have to say, i think this is a campaign like no other we've seen in my lifetime. it's a kind of peaceful popular revolution against power as usual, against the westminster establishment as nick was saying. it's been a campaign where you've had to go onto the social media websites to get some sense of the extraordinary energy coursing through this country. nothing like this has ever been seen in scotland or in britain in the 20th century. >> andy, we'll be back with you a little later. thank you very much. leading our team at the 32 authority area counts tonight. a little later we'll have reaction from whales and northern ireland where there's great interest in tonight's
outcome. there's the interest, too, among ex patriots. we'll have reaction from westminster and among world leaders who will be pondering how tonight's result might alter the u.k.'s standing in the world depending on what happens of course. useful to remind ourselves how this voting system works in a referendum like this, how does it differ from our contests. let's go to jeremy to tell us about that. >> we are looking at 32 councils and here they are in alphabet cal order. we will put yes for green and red for no. until we get the results we simply don't know what is happening, but can we look for clues. can we look for clues as to which way they've gone. let me show you something interesting.
if i reorder these boxes according to the european election result in 2014 this is what it looks like. very different issues and very different turnout. the councils colored in the party that came first in their area. yellow s&p, blue is labor, orange is the islands there. we're looking for clues. that's all we're doing here, wondering whether these snp voting councils will be the ones that vote strongly for independence. i've ordered the council boxes here so the strongest area, western aisles. these are the heartlands from the election earlier this year. come down and see the other
council on this. as we go down we get gray. i can see scottish borders there on the border with england, so we might be able to say, might we not, that you're's more likely to see yes votes in these areas. if we start to see no votes in dunn di city or ang gus, we might see different results. analyzing the statistics, here we have councils by birth place. we're looking at the councils where the most number of people proportion atly were born in scotland and stayed. these are the councils where people tend to be more scottish. born here, they stayed here. all the way down you see the purple fade and get to aberdeen
city, far fewer people who were born in aberdeen city and are staying. again, we know that this is an index for voting for independence is more likely if you were born in scotland and stayed in scotland that you vote for independence. again, we might say these councils are more likely to vote yes. if as the night goes on they come in no, we can may be draw some lessons on that. let's have another look at an interesting index. this is councils by social grade. we're looking at the lower social grades, people on benefits, manuel workers. all the way down here, look at glasgow, one of the biggest councils, those labor supporters, are they going to follow their leadership or follow this index which suggests that lower social grades vote
yes. we will see. we' ar're looking for clues. it's going to be fascinating. >> jeremy vine there with a little more explanation. here we are, part of the army of very hard workers we have here at the bbc headquarters. we're waiting for the results to come in. they will be feeding the results into our system, having a look at them, combing through them looking for trends. we know there's a record number of voters registered. will that translate into a very high turnout? you have to go back to 1951 to get a turnout of over 82%. big questions, i'm delighted that our friends on bbc, our global audience has just joined us. thank you very much for joining. i think we're in for a very exciting evening. professor john curtis is with me leading our team of experts. nice to see you again, john. we're going to be hanging on your every word. at this earliest stage, what are the earliest signals you're
likely to get? >> some indication of the turnout. arguably, that's one of the two most important results of the night. one of the things that the politicians hope that they would get out of this referendum is a decisive result. one of the things that will help that everybody agrees is decisive is if the vast majority of people in scotland voted. now, very early days but the indications we've got from the odd count is it does look as though indeed we do have a very high turnout, maybe that 81% record figure may well be surpassed. the good news is this may well be a referendum that everybody accepts as decisive. the bad news is of course if a lot of people have voted, that count is going to take a little bit longer and the earliest expectations will be 1:00 or maybe later before we get the first results.
>> don't say that, john. i want people to keep watching because we have a big story to tell. when those results come in, even the earliest ones surely will give us a few valuable signals. let's think about what you might expect as one of the earliest results and what that might tell us. >> for example, one of the smaller counties in scotland, if there were to be a big no or a big yes vote, that would give us a pretty good indication that perhaps either no or yes have won respectively. we think it's not going to be a million miles away from what we would expect to find as far as scotland as a whole is concerned. one of the things we do need to emphasize here is that because we've never had a referendum on this subject before, we can't be entirely sure which of the places where, for example,
they're going to do particularly well or badly. that's going to be much more difficult in this referendum. we might think, for example, that they might not be that far away from how scotland votes as a whole but there's no way to be sure of that. >> glasgow, educationen borrow, hundreds of thousands of votes, we're going to have to wait for those? >> the bigger the council, the more important it is, the longer we're going to have to wait. therefore, don't be surprised if, in fact, we have to get an awful lot of results in before we get anything very much in the way of a clear indication those early results are going to come from small councils and we are going to be asking ourselves, hang on, that's interesting, but lots of big places to come. >> i don't know, we'll be talking lots during the night.
thank you very much. john curtis. john will be with his team providing us with lots of valuable tips and analysis throughout the night. let's talk a little about the campaign. it's been remarkable just to see the level of engagement across all kinds of communities across scotland. you can't go anywhere without someone asking you or telling you about their view of the referendum. it's a level of engagement that i've never seen in 30 years of reporting and all of my colleagues are saying the same thing. of course, when you're talking about something this important, when you're talking about stakes which are as high as these, it's maybe not surprising that from time to time tempers have been slightly frayed. >> we owe the scottish people
something that is fair, legal and decisive. >> ladies and gentlemen, that was quite a lunch. let's make sure it's quite a campaign. thank you. >> during this campaign it's one of the most important things i've ever done in politics. >> i'm honored to announce that on thursday, the 18th of september, 2014, we will hold scotland's referendum, a historic day where the people will decide scotland's future. >> the first debate should be between the first minister of scotland who wants independence and the prime minister of the u.k. who is trying to stop scotland from getting independence. >> thank you very, very much, and scotland, stay with us. >> i could not, as chancellor, recommend that we could share the pound with an independent scotland. >> scotland cannot keep the pound in the bank of england in it chooses independence. >> it is clear to me that a
currency wouldn't work for scotland if it was independent. it wouldn't work for the rest of the u.k. >> it's in the interest of george osborne, danny alexander to talk up the uncertainty. we're making a case for an arrangement that is right for the rest of the u.k. as well. >> any 8-year-old can tell you the flag of the country, the capital of a country and its currency and i presume the flag is the sul tar. our capital will be educationen borrow but you can't tell us the currency. >> they cannot stop us using the pound, the most important revelation this evening. >> we want scotland to win the yes vote to separate from england. >> i'll nominate david cannon.
>> whoa! >> this weekend a poll put the yes campaign slightly ahead for the first time. >> we are proposing that over the next few months we agree a program that the scottish parliament should have increased powers. >> tomorrow the right place to be isn't in westminster. it's being in scotland. >> we have the entire westminster establishment in a total and utter panic. >> if you're fed up with the f-ing toris, give them a kick. this is totally different to a general election. this is a decision about not the next five years. it's a decision about the next century. >> that gave you a pretty good sense of the campaign and the fact that there's been lots of energy and lots of passion. that's not surprising because people have been debating the future of their nation and their
country. if you don't get passionate about that there's not much hope for you, is there. a full results available online. plenty of information there on the individual counting areas. it's a very, very good site for you to have a look at. on social media look for @bbc politics or the bbc news facebook page. or if you're on other forms of social media you have the hashtag indy ref. i'm delighted to say that douglas alexander is with us for labor and the scottish secretary for culture and foreign secretary. thank you both for coming in. >> good evening. where do we start, douglas? just to talk really for you, what is at stake here? >> this is much bigger than a general election and party
politics. i think the real question that many of us were looking at today when we saw the ballot paper was what kind of progress do we want for our nation? it's fundamental, bienry and we can only welcome the fight. i think the vote will be a historic high. i think it will be a historic judgment on a historic question. it's hard to find words that capture the scale and significance of those of us in scotland, not just of the campaign that we've experienced but the consequences of the decision. the choice is for us as scots but the consequences will be felt in over part of these islands. this is huge. >> it's great to be able to pay tribute to the health and the vigor. >> it's exciting. the people of scotland have been on a journey and a few years ago some people didn't even want to have a debate. it has now energized a nation.
the turnout is considerable and i think it will be way over 80%. i've seen that with my own eyes. in terms of the engagement and the debate it's helped people change politics. it no longer is an issue of politics of party. it's most certainly politics of people. that's what many people find that are not from scotland find hard to engage with. this is not just about the westminster system. this is about power and power lying in the hands of the people and for those precious hours today, the future and the power and the sof sovereignty lay in the lands of the people. t >> in a second i'm going to ask you for your sense of during the day you must have picked up some vibes. before that, nick, i said earlier and i explained to viewers, we don't have an exit poll, but there are some surveys around tonight, aren't there?
>> there's a last on the day poll. very important distinction between an exit poll. it's not quite like every other poll because the poll involves people who have voted, no one who hasn't made their mind up. people have actually voted and the result out tonight is 54% no, 46% yes. so a clear no lead, quite a bit bigger than we had earlier. and the underlying data suggests that in that churn that you get there's some more movements from yeses to nos than there is from nos to yes. when i traveled around scotland there weren't people saying i haven't a clue. they were veering between yes and no and maybe and perhaps. just to stress, the reason that we're not putting too much on that poll, not only is it not an exit poll. this question has never been asked before so we have no benchmark. we have naeever had a turnout le
this or 16 and 17-year-olds voting before. >> with all of those very big qualifications, would that kind of margin be in line of what you expect, douglas, or not? >> i think you need humility when you see turnouts of this level. we have no experience. the highest turnout previously in scotland was around 80% in 1950. in that sense it's far beyond any of our life times. and you need to have humility at this time in the evening but my sense and the constituency today was no. a taxi driver said if i stop the meter will you explain it to me? in what other election could that possibly happen. my colleague said he was in a
restaurant and in between shots discuss the referendum. last saturday evening every single table was talking politics. it has been an extraordinary thing. >> no one disagrees with that. it has been remarkable. just to go back to those figures, i know it's just a survey, would that be in any way in line with what you might expect or not? >> i would trust the judgment of the scottish people and i would trust a real poll compared to anything else that we're hearing in the course of today. >> from what you picked up in your own area today, what was your sense of things? >> there's been an underestimation of the undeciders. they're just not decided yet. a lot of people weighing the issues and i think some of the issues in the last few days about last minute panics has
been counter productive but i think we're see the results when they come through. i think a lot of people think we're being taken for granted. why is this all happening in the last two days, two weeks, why have we have this in the last two years. the stories are fantastic. people who have never voted before, a guy 57 years old, never voted before and wants to come to the polling station. i had the honor of going to the polls with my 17-year-old son. he and his friends were voting for the first time. he was making history twice, making a choice about the future of his country but also being the first 17-year-old as part of a national voting system. >> we've all got taxi driver stories. the guy who drove me from glasgow central station said his partner who is 50 had never voted before and was voting for the first time, voting yes and he was voting no. it's a classic tale of how
people have been really thinking about it and really reflected on the burden, the responsibility of the decision, talking about the responsibility of making a decision. i'm delighted to say that we have a group of people here with us from all parts of scotland, different ages, different perspectives in terms of this debate. can i just give you a very formal welcome, all of you. happy you're with us. we're going to be chatting with you as the night goes on. i'm sure that if douglas and fiona or nick and sarah have things to say they can, too. john, i'm going to start with you in the front row. you're from southwest scotland, correct? >> yes. >> you're an entrepreneur? >> yes. >> i think you're a yes supporter? >> i am indeed, yes. >> we've established that. can we talk about the campaign, maybe not in terms of specific issues but the nature of the campaign and what you've made of it and how it's engaged you. >> actually when the campaign began i was living in london at the time.
so when i started looking at the difference between a yes and no i was kind of in the background of a london setting. at the very beginning i was very much a no supporter. but as i read the different arguments, i looked at what other people were saying online and i realized actually that a lot of the arguments of the yes campaign made an awful lot of sense. then towards the end we started seeing more and more messups by the no campaign -- >> what would you call a messup? >> things like earlier in the month, the problem with rbs where they actually made a massive mistake and how they put forward the news about rbs. >> was it a turning point for you? in your transition from no to yes, was it a point where you thought, okay?
>> no. it was gradual. it was very much, oh, here's another fact i didn't realize about scotland. here's another thing that isn't often talked about and then doing research based on that. >> john, thank you very much. ruth in the back row there, things for coming in. i think you've got a different perspective to john's. you're on the other side? >> yes, i am. >> your perspective on the campaign and your sense of how it's gone, whether it's been a good energizing experience? >> it has been a fantastic experience. i personally have never been involved in politics or anything like this at all. i felt very passionately about the issue and have become more and more involved and to the point that now i have decided myself i'd like to be politically active. the number of people i've debated with i've met along the way has been fascinating and particularly for me as well, women who have now decided that they want to be more involved and politically active
themselves, so i think it's been a phenomenal experience, heated and hard work as we get closer that's certainly been the case. it's absolutely fantastic. even my 5-year-old is waiting and excited about waking up to see whether the yeses or the nos have won. it's tremendous. the main thing i would really hope is that we continue with this momentum, that we keep people this engaged after the vote tonight. >> can i ask you, you said you hadn't been engaged in politics before. so how the it happen? did someone invite you to meeting? >> yes. actually i had a meeting with business connections and she had invited me along for the launch of the campaign. i got a phone call saying would you come along and maybe say something there. that kind of started this huge ball rolling and i've been very active in the campaign throughout. one of the things that had really struck me was i never
actually personally appreciated just how disengaged a lot of people were by politics and maybe uncomfortable talking about it with even their family and friends. that struck me that i thought this is really important that we have more young people, more women actively involved in politics. that stayed with me, so i definitely plan to do that. >> thank you very much. the front row, nice to see you. you're a labor voter? >> i am. >> can i ask you which way you voted? >> i voted yes. you can't see my badge but there you go. >> so why did you in effect abandon the parties own stance then? >> the independence debate is so much bigger than party politics. it's not about the snp but about what's best for us and future
generations. i started reading the papers and i didn't see much radical change. for the people of scotland and we have so many large resources, i just felt as though the papers weren't going far enough and started reading independent and was totally swayed. >> hold that thought for a second because, douglas, possibly the fear for you has been that there are lots of people like that who have been swayed by the arguments of the yes campaign. >> to an extent but equally we're finding a significant number of snp voters who actually think we support them when they vote for fiona and her colleagues but are voting for the referendum. all of us recognize there has been churn within the parties. one of the great things about this referendum is it's liberated politics in scotland from two myths. one is voting doesn't make any
difference. every knows this decision is going to make a difference. second that all politicians are the same. there are very different political points of view on both sides. that's a great example for the united kingdom. >> amy in the front row, you're one of the 17-year-old voters, that's right? >> yes, that's correct. >> nice to see you. >> can i ask you how you voted? >> i voted no this morning. >> was that a decision you came to today or had you already decided a while ago? >> i think i've been a no supporter since the whole campaign started but it's not something i've been really set on. i've just naturally come to the decision as i've become more informed over the course of the year. >> what was, for you, the strongest argument in the no campaign? >> to sum it up in a word it would be uncertainty. i'm still unclear with what is happening with currency.
we keep being told about universities, that's fantastic but the jobs after we're just not told enough information. >> lots of you will be waiting to come in, and i promise i'll be back with you before too long. thank you very much. good contributions. >> i sense that when the change went through, 16, 17-year-olds getting the vote there was a real sense that that was because you expected most young people to vote yes. that's right? >> that's rubbish. in 1967 they talked about votes for 16 and 17-year-olds. i think any of you who watched the debate the bbc had with the 8,000 young people or 6,000 i think it was, we would be under no illusion that these were well informed, intelligent young people. it was more about them. as a 17-year-old said to me, this decision, we will have to live longer with this decision than the rest of you.
i think that's a wise perspective. that's where the hope and optimism has been reflective in the yes campaign and i think the idea of sewing fear and certainty has been the problem with the new campaign. how you do your politics is as important as what you do with your politics. that's what we're showing with the whole campaign. how you do your politics can be different and women have become more involved in organizations like independence for women, really engaging with people on all sides. i think one of the legacies i expect to see is more women, more young people and less with great respect to douglas, middle-aged man. >> don't look at me. >> that was wounding. >> briefly, it's one of those changes that we've seen that will be hard to reverse. try telling them you won't get a vote when it comes to choosing your member in parliament. imagine their friends, their
relatives, the people they mix with at university if they're down south for example, they say i've got a vote. there's a whole series of things that this referendum has changed. >> let's hold that thought for a second. i'm keen to know what's going on with some of the counts. great industrial heritage west of glasgow. sully is there for us. can you give us a sense of how things are going? >> i can tell you there's been a very, very high turnout. as you say, this is traditional labor territory. it's built on shipbuilding as you just said and sugar refining. there has been -- those jobs have largely gone. we were talking earlier about the importance of areas of deprivation and high unemployment and the significance of those and this is such an area that the jobs have largely gone. there's very high deprivation here and there's been a very
high turnout. we're told that in one district there was a 95% turnout. obviously that's going to be confirmed much later on in the night. the snp have been campaigning very hard not just recently but for the past 18 months a series of very well attended community meetings, labor mp and mcken ski has had his job cut out for him and he's been pounding the streets, too. the campaign was boosted about three weeks ago when one local councillor from labor started actively campaigning for yes. she's since resigned from labor but they've taken that as a big boost and they say they're very confident that large numbers of traditional labor voters will be voting yes here. >> sully, thank you very much. we'll be back a little later. murray is another interesting area if you go to the northeast of scotland. this is an area where they have
been sending snps to westminster for a long time. ewan is there for us. can you give us a sense of how that count is progressing? >> it's really exciting. this is a coastal community, a fishing town. fishing is massive here, as agriculture and of course whiskey. this should be solid yes territory. y this is a community divided. many people cannot make up their mind. there's a big army camp here. scotland's first ever member of parliament is incredibly important.
92%, 86% possibly of the ballot has been registered. along the coast here, macbeth allegedly met the three witches there who made all kinds of predictions for scotland's future. it would be a brave witch to predict the future tonight. >> thank you very much. that will be one of the interesting signals for us. just a thought, really on areas like murray where you do have a strong heritage. is there a suggestion in areas like the northeast that there will be a percentage of your supporters there who will not be backing you? i'm saying that because for viewers in other parts of the u.k., they will assume that every snp voter is voting for independence. >> i think it's wrong and i've said before to think about the politics of party has stopped being that some time ago. so i represent my constituenci s
constituencies, a former mining area. we have a large number of labor voters who are voting yes. does that mean that some snp voters know that may happen but i also know in terms of the compensation by far greater number of labor voters. if you look at the numbers that vote yes, whatever polls you want to take, will be far in excess of even the land slide result we got as a party of the snp in 2011. it's not about. the snp but the people of scotland. it's different within different streets, communities and areas. for audiences that perhaps have not been as involved in this debate, it's perhaps hard to -- >> it's important to explain that. do you buy the thinking? >> the basic point that people are moving around is certainly
the case. one thing that was understood early on is how fundamentally different the referendum is. if you promise the earth and then don't deliver the earth, they kick you out the next time. this is a one-shot deal and i think alex ammon to his credit as a politician aspiring to take scotland to independence, but i would argue the character of the campaign thought i just need to be lucky once. i just need to promise anything, threaten anything, offer anything. if i get the votes on september 18th, the deal is done. in that sense that shaped both the scale of the promises made by the yes campaign and affected the way the no campaign had to respond by saying, hold on a minute, let's ask some questions. that was immediately characterized as negative. to understand the dynamic of that campaign you have to give alex credit of saying i just need to convince voters on one
day. >> that's an unfair way of characterizing. the yes campaign has been more of a movement and mass and grassroots and certainly on the ground. uneasy alliances. i'm sure maybe little colleagues of douglas alexander didn't want to be seen on the same platform but you brought together a strange alliance of conservatives that you wouldn't normally see and it was very much a con trained top down approach. that characterizes the differences between the two campaigns. >> just a thought there -- >> what's going to be fascinating when we talk about the way this has changed politics forever possibility in scotland people involved at a grassroots level not necessarily following party leaders. if we look at this huge turnout, that's people who have never been involved in politics before but may remain so. they're going to ask very different questions of party
leaders when it comes to future elections and operate in different ways in their own grassroots organizations. they're going to hold politicians to account possibly in a way they haven't before. people who have been energized are going to be very disappointed. a large number of voters who finally got involved in politics for the first time will not get what they wanted. what they do with their energy and disappointment will be interesting. >> i think the walls are breaking of this link between nationalism as it was called and the vote yes for independence. there are a lot of traditional nationalists who voted today yes. there are lots of people who never dreamt of calling themselves nationalists. as you travel around scotland people are saying stop calling it that or alex's yes campaign because they saw it as part of a broader movement. the u.k.-based parties were stuck slightly in a campaign that wanted to tackle the snp
and they saw themselves in some ways as in a traditional election campaign and that's why some of those messages didn't get past. >> let's pause for a second. we'll be back and talking with our guests here in the studio and have a look at the key counting centers. we're going to have a summary of the news. >> hello. i'm carol walker with a summary of the main news. the polls have closed and counting is under way in the scottish independence referendum. the final result is expected shortly after 6:00. no exit polls were conducted but a survey has predicted the no camp is on 54% compared to 46% for the yes campaign.
our political correspondent chris mason reports. >> reporter: it might not be quite the color you're used to but for this scottish statue of liberty give you the gist of independence, and yes, they've been fired up. >> it's a once in a lifetime opportunity to take scotland's future into scotland's hands. >> reporter: tonight the rith ma tick is under way. down the road in fall kirk and others, the adding has begun. who says people couldn't care less about politics. turnout is expected to be huge. those hoping scotland will remain part of the u.k., the no campaign, hope they've done enough to win. >> it's hard to find words that capture the scale and
significance to those of us in scotland, not just of the campaign but the consequences. the choice is for us as scots, but the consequences will be felt in every part of these islands. >> reporter: an opinion poll done today suggests scotland won't be going its own way. >> the prediction tonight is that no has won this referendum by 54% with yes getting 46%. we polled 1800 people today online after they voted, people we spoke to earlier this week so we can look up what happened to real people and there's been a clear shift today, a small but clear shift from yes to no. we also think that the no voters in the end were slightly more determined to turn out than the yes voters. >> reporter: but so far we have no actual results. while the counters count, the pundits will speculate. the night is young. chris mason, bbc news. >> a new video has been released showing a british man believed
to be held hostage by islamic state militants. in the video the man identifies himself as journalist john kunkly in syria. he was captured while working as a newspaper jushlist. he's seen sitting behind a desk wearing orange clothes and delivering a speech. detectives in london investigating it is disappearance of a man have named a suspect. police say he served time in jail in latvia for murdering his wife and was last seen a week after the 14-year-old went missing in late august. she was last seen on the path that he used to get to work. the u.n. security council has declared the ebola outbreak in west africa a threat to world peace and security. the council called on the
international community to provide urgent assistance to the countries effects. the secretary general warned that the number of ebola infections was doubling every three weeks. police in thailand say they still haven't identified any suspects in the hunt for the killer or killers of two british tourists. the bodies of hannah widthridge and david miller were found on a beach on an island on monday. the prime minister apologized for suggesting it's unsafe for female tourists to wear bikinis. now it's time for "scotland decides." >> i have two new guests with me
and i'll introduce them in a moment. before that i'm joined by my colleague, andrew kneel. >> scotland has saturated the air waves for weeks. let's talk about england with two mps. the prime minister said if it's a no vote he's going to offer substantial home rule which gordon brown calls it to scotland. can we do that without major constitutional change in england? >> of course he can't. he's got to reform the whole of the united kingdom. i say what is good enough for scotland then should be good enough for england. every power that's given to the scottish parliament should be mirrored with the same power coming to the english parliament. i would say we can carry on doing both jobs at the moment but we english mps should meet in westminster on separate
occasions from the union parliament meeting as the english parliament and handle all the ways in the exact same way. >> that a growing view? >> yes, very much. it builds on the conservative manifesto fledge for english votes for english issues made in 2010 and now matched by mr. craig who said on the radio that democrats who weren't in favor of that are in favor. it seems to be the majority view. it would be quite unacceptable if scotland were setting her own income tax rate in the scottish parliament and then sent members to the westminster parliament to set a rate for us. >> if it's a no vote, what constitutional change do you think there should be in england? >> first of all, no one has seen
mr. cameron's proposals. i don't think even david cameron actually know the details of the proposals so it's hard to comment on that. i think that labor mps will be relieved that it looks like we're going to squeeze through and no will win. >> but what's the consequences for england? >> the consequence for labor mps is we will not be inclined to rock the boat on this. >> mr. john denim, one of your colleagues, he said it's clear that the more powers that go to the scottish parliament, the less you can have scottish mps voting on things. do you agree with mr. denim or not? >> i think that's inevitable. >> that scottish mps should not
vote on english only matters? >> it has to be. >> england won't accept it and a lot of scottish mps won't want to. they want to run scotland, not england. >> we're being told that if it's a no vote, the prime minister tomorrow morning is going to make a major statement, not just about scotland but about england. what has he got to say to keep his back benchers on site? >> that he's going to be as fair to england as to scotland. i'm happy to stand behind the prime minister and honor his pledge to scotland. we must keep faith with the scottish people. they deserve more powers because they have been offered in a referendum. every power must be matched with the same power coming to england and it has to be done at the england level. these are big powers, things like fixing income tax. so we need an english parliament to match the scottish parliament. >> if there's going to be major constitutional change south of
the border and northern ireland and whales, that's going to delay the whole thing. you can't do that between now and may of next year? >> it's hard to see how that is going to happen. all i can tell you is that we wish to stand behind them. however that may not be true of big city leaders like manchester. those labor leaders may take a lot of their own. >> i'm afraid we've got to go back to "scotland decides" thank you. >> we'll be back with andrew neil and his guests a little later on. let's have a look at the scenes around scotland tonight. the counting is well under way. ballot boxes have been arriving from all over scotland and of course that presence some
logistical challenges but the boxes have been arriving. i have to say, having been briefed several times by the electoral authorities, one run by mary who is in charge of this counting is a very impressive operation. they seem to have covered all eventualities. barring any recount which of course would change the timetable significantly, barring any recounts, it looks to be a very efficient process indeed so far. what you get in lots of these counting areas, 32 of them based on the local authority areas, you'll get some initial indications first of all of turnout. we've had one or two figures but nothing official yet. after that we would be in a position to think about the total numbers of votes involved and then we'll be able to look forward to some of the earlier declaratio declarations.
we think that some of the smaller local areas may well be able to get through their numbers more quickly, more efficiently because of the smaller numbers. so that's the sense of the activity going on right now. those are the people working very hard to get those results in for you. ruth davisson is with us now, the leader of the scottish conservatives and the scottish minister for external affairs and international development. thank you very much for coming in. >> thank you. >> quite a night for you to be joining us. ruth, any intelligence from your area? >> yes. i've been having lots of tweets and texts and all sorts coming in from people around the country. we've got people doing talleys. the most that we've had so far, scottish border seems to be rattling through their ballets and the ones handed in. we're looking at perhaps 70% for no there. we would expect that to be high and good for us but if it was
significantly below that i would be worried and this smile wouldn't be on my face. i'm pleased the scottish border is coming out for no. >> i picked up on what john edward was saying there, the contrast with your conservative viewpoint in scotland. thanks for coming in, too. fiona was expressing that this wasn't really a party issue, this is much bigger than a party issue, that there was a cross-party consensus on both sides actually, alliance on both sides. do you agree with that and secondly, do you have any intelligence on what's going on? >> your second question, the intelligence we have is that nobody has any real intelligence. you of course have a news program so i'm delighted to be part of that nonintelligence intelligence that you're providing. some intelligence that is seeping through is that the west, glasgow and greater glasgow and those kind of areas
which have a real tough battle, some important ground for the yes campaign. we're seeing the turnout is exceptionally high. the leader saying it's going to be a close call and we're going to have to stay up until the early hours of the night to watch it. that's where we are and i completely agree with fiona. there's been cross-party and nonparty. we have had people who have no interest in politics getting involved and how refreshing. the success story of the referendum campaign has been the 16 and 17-year-olds, phenomenal. they have been the stars of the show. >> we'll be talking to some of them in a short while. we have contributed once or twice but we'll be back with our guests here. let's go to the count in glasgow, hundreds of thousands of votes for grabs there. what's your sense of timing there because clearly that's a very, very big logistical
exercise? >> indeed, it is. when you understand that just short of half a million people registered to vote here in the city of glasgow, you'll get some idea of the extent of the operation going on just below me here. we haven't even gotten to the start of the count here yet. that's just the papers being verified. we hope to get the counting actually started fairly soon. what we're hearing is that there has been very, very high turnouts. now, that is particularly significant here in glasgow because glasgow sometimes has pitiful turnouts when it comes to elects. the last scottish parliamentary election, the turnouts, some seats were as low as 34, 36%. most of glasgow's seats didn't make it to 34% or over. what i'm hearing tonight is that at some individual polling stations in glasgow -- these are not official figures but by half
past 8:00 tonight you're looking at turnouts like 64%, 70% and one polling station made it over the 80% mark. that would be remarkable and goes to show that people did decide that they did want to vote in this referendum. it was important to them to come out and vote. even people who do not have a history of voting decided they were going to come out and vote on the referendum. of course, what we don't know is whose benefit is that for, which side is going to benefit most from that. i have to say we're a fair bit away yet from knowing. >> before i let you go there, if things go according to plan, forgive me if you hinted on this earlier, if things go according to plan, what kind of time would glasgow be ready, do you think? >> nobody has any clue, is the honest answer, because they've never had a turnout like this
before. they've never had this amount of people registered and this amount of enthusiasm. it is of course a much simpler sort when it comes to it, as only yes or no so that might speed things up but it's going to be well, well into the wee hours and i can't get anybody on the counting team who is willing to make a prediction. if i was a betting woman i would say probably not before 4:00. >> that's very useful. thank you very much. we'll be back with you later on because the glasgow result could be pivotal in this referendum. they're talking about impressive turnout. i'm being told that the postal turnout is around 96%. that's not the official turnout. another sense of how this is going. i said earlier that people around the world are keeping on eye on what's going on in scotland. not just scots around the world with a vested interest, a big
stake in this, but world leaders, too, because it affects the governors of the united kingdom and the standing of the united kingdom for some people. john, our north america editor is in washington and you have some thoughts on how interested the white house is in what's going on here. >> yeah. i think the white house hugely interested in what is going on here in washington. barack obama chose to issue a tweet last night, 11th hour intervention to call for britain to stay united. that was the second intervention in this debate. he's an experienced politician. if he didn't want to get involved in the independence debate, he could have steered clear of it. instead of which, he said we obviously have a deep interest in making sure that one of the closest allies that we will ever have remains strong, rebust, united and an effective partner. then adding, of course it's up to the scottish people to decide their own destiny. it was very clear what barack obama thinks and i have to say,
across the political elite, whether you consider that to be financialers, bankers, economists, everyone seems to be speaking with one voice and bet and fear for the consequences if it went the other way. very, very big interest within the european union. that's not surprising given the membership and whether scotland could assume an awesome path into membership. gavin, your thoughts on the level of interest within the european union, indeed, you know, the way this debate is conducted itself over the past few days. >> there is huge interest in europe as regards to the out
come over the scottish vote. we have nationals on the streets putting candles down on the scottish flag, but of course, here in official europe here in brussels, there is far less enthusiasm about the idea of nation states breaking up. we had -- come out and actually warning against the unraveling of member states. he said europe had been put together over 50 years and now, there was a risk of it being deconstructed and he very much made the point this was important not just for great britain, but europe. we had something similar yesterday from the spanish prime minister who said these independence movements are rather like a torpedo going under water, aimed at the very spirit of europe and he said europe was about integration, not about fragmentation. and of course, the reason he said that is that his concern is an independence movement in
catalonia might become em boldened if there was a yes vote in scotland. i think that's one of the reasons there's been such attention on what's happening in scotland. there is a concern that if scotland voted yes, there are areas like catalonia, benito, corsica, that might also choose to go down the path to have an independence poll. >> thank you very much. very useful to have those views on the views of the leaders and how they're paying attention to this contest. it's coming up to midnight, really. the front pages just to give us a sense of what some of the papers are redikting. the mill count predicting victory. let's stay on that image for a moment, ruth, are you? >> we haven't. the head of -- has. i am quietly confident that the quiet majority of scots have
spoken, but i think it's right to say that nobody knows anything for sure right now. peter kellner that -- one of the big losers in this campaign. just haven't had a touch or a feel for scottland. like a referendum is, the way they've tried to weight things, they've tried to weight it to party politics and it just doesn't work. >> back to the front pages. bring in nick and sarah in a moment. have a look at the other front pages that we have there. there's the herald. scotland makes history, so, you can take that any way you'd like because it certainly made history in terms of this unprecedented electoral process. ahead a look at the scotsman. the nation speaks. maybe 5:00, 6:00 in the morning to see what the nature of the speaking is.
>> the sun. up to 4 million scots vote. well. >> just say there's a variety. >> there's a question to which the answer is no. credit -- what is interesting is that times headline predicting victory. they are and they've not just been doing it today, but for the past 48 hours. the conversations i've been having with people was a sense that things were moving their way. they did think there was a margin of victory there and they believed today one thing they were terrified of was that it would be people who never voted before. as of this morning, the new campaign, that wasn'ting. yes, the big turnout, but there wasn't a sense that people had
suddenly rushed out in large numbers simply to vote for yes. most of the people i've been speaking to have been predicting victory and the yes campaign, they're constantly the language of confidence and optimism. that's been the gat, the petrol in the tank. i haven't heard one predict. >> the last one comes in second. we'll ask you in a second because i think before we ask you, i think it's time for us to say well, what if it was a yes? let's consider the implications of a yes outcome because then, you begin to ask some performance questions, not just about the future of scotland, but the future of the rest of the u.k., too. >> if it is a yes, there are some huge issues that would need sortinging out. this year and next, there will have to be a scottish institutional. these are snp plans.
there will have to be a handover of assets from scotland to england and england to scotland and vice versa. then a common travel area. then there is the very vex this year of a sterling currency union. then scotland needs to work out look at that independent mep ship of the e.u. and also, independent membership of nato as well and finally, create an energy fund. so, all of that going on just this year and next year if the vote is yes. go forward, get to 2014, the 24th of march and there's a new government in an independent scotland and then there will have to be a scottish security and intelligence agency running. a scottish defense force will have to be running by 2016 with 7.5 thousand soldiers.
a naval squadron, acquisition of an army brigade, including two helicopters. the acquisition of two air force squadrons including typhoons. enormous job of work here. then also, setting up a scottish foreign ministry. that's at the end of 2016, 2017, and then by the end of 2018, scotland will have full control. these are snp plans in their white paper of welfare benefits. april 2020 and you see scotland taking full control by then. this is the plan. of personal income taxes. then you have a scottish defense force in full control with more soldiers. maybe something like 15,000, then finally, the really controversial one, trident out of scotland, then in may 2020, a second election. so, you get a sense from that
just how much there is to do if the vote is yes. >> thank you very much. and we'll explore of course the new options as well in a short while. given the intelligence we've just received and that we saw that prediction now on the front page of the times, it's still very early, so let's just be cautious, shall we. what does the secretary of scotland make of it? >> i'm joined by a real live three dimensional politician to talk about the future of the country. we heard john redwood early on, saying whatever comes out of this, yes or not, there's going to be an english parol. . is that your view as well? >> as a liberal, i'm a federalist and you know, it is known really for the english to have the debate that we've had
in scotland and northern ireland. decades to reach the consensus, but we did it by building a c consensus involving not just the political parties. the conversation has to happen now in england. whether it's an english parliament, regional assemblies or more powerful regions, that's for them to decide. >> but if england wants a parliament, there's no way that scots can say no, you can't have one. we go to the federal britain. the liberals wanted before the first world war. >> that really is the opportunity which we have within tonight, if we have a no vote here because a no vote finishes the job of def. it brings the powers of taxation and other areas needed to rebound. >> very unbalanced system and
that's been unlocked, instituti constitutional reform across the kingdom. an english parliament, whatever the people of england themselves want. it unlocks reform to the house of lords and maybe even the house of commons. >> for all those english and welsh people watching tonight, don't think this is not about you. you're about to see a tsunami of political change as a result of what is happening in scotland here tonight. >> we unlock the door for themselves to decide what they want to do. that's what democracy is all about. >> when i was talking to alex a week ago, he said after this campaign, if his side won, there would be no more team no, team yes. there would be team scotland and that you would be a member of that team. >> this was classic alex. kicking up dust. talking about the process. political equivalent of fantasy, a fruit bowl, which really,