tv Daily Kos Previews 2018 Midterm Elections CSPAN August 10, 2017 10:33am-11:50am EDT
soldiers. why would he want to go to guam? i think he is a figure. i do not think he will do a dark thing. i think his missiles are going to be empty. i think he is a lot of rhetoric. he can go toward south korea because it would affect him. if he goes towards japan, everything is going to go west towards them. he is just putting a lot of smoke. host: let's get a response. uffing a lot ofp smoke. host: let's get a response. guest: i do not agree with you. he wants to get guam. good morning. thank you for coming. welcome to the dailykos elections q and a. time during the panel sense 2014. we are thrilled to be back and
are grateful to our host at netwo nation and -- at roots nation. we will be taking questions from the room or online for you can can tweet at us. this panel has been about interactivity. we do not do any speeches or presentations, we are going to aboutuick introductions who we are and we will get to your questions. we think army progresses with information about
there responsible for candidate endorsement program, which i am sure will come up in the panel. the team is involved in helping us choose who we decide to support and who we feel we should ask our community to support. on the panel, david. he has been writing with the team since 2015. his specialty is international elections. he is one of the main writers on our monthly international elections digest. it is a great tool. it is a great toward if you want to learn about democracies around the world. to my left is jeff, he is a senior writer. he has been with the team since 2013.
jeff is the guy responsible for calculating the presidential everylection results for congressional district and we are in the process of calculating it for every legislative district. --ry time you see someone hillary clinton 150%, the reason why you and we know that is because of death's efforts -- of jeff's efforts. [applause] yes, i think it deserves a response. number joins us as a new -- as a new member of our team. there are so many thousands of legislative races that knowing about them and knowing who to support and which seeks to target in which chambers to
target, it is difficult information for normal civilians to combine. -- two combine -- to come by. we will talk about it because legislators who create the district affect the house. the jury members -- the gary errymanders is g important. she writes her own newsletter. it covers the goings on of the legislature and the government threat the country. to her right is daniel donner. he is from portland, oregon. is maps, charts, and graphs of all kinds. he likes to visualize the data. he has been working on the visualizations of the special election we have seen since trump was elected where democrats have been
outperforming trends. i am sure he will want to talk about it later today. finally, david german is an instructional designer from seattle, washington. with the been working team since 2008. among his many specialties, he loves to take deep dives into -- he is looking at the role education plays in defining the electorate in 2016 and what it will mean going forward. that is enough for us. we will turn it over to you your it looks like have a microphone here. if you cannot get up, it is fine. just stand up and speak loudly. i will repeat the questions. >> i wanted to ask a question on a topic -- i am ashamed i do not look up very much or look up.
omaha, what happened to the candidate in omaha? what happened? >> the question is about the election in omaha. i presume you are talking about the omaha mayoral race. it happened earlier this year. this was a difficult situation that daily kos found itself in. legislatorate in the race -- we did not do the divisional -- do the due diligence we should have. he had a record on abortion we felt was not accessible for progressive communities. i want to be clear -- we did not say we thought democrats should not support him that he should not run.
for daily kos, we have to begin choosing be selective about the endorsements we make. were not as, we selective as we should of it. when we learned about his record on abortion, we chose to withdraw the endorsement. .e do not attack them publicly we stayed are reasons for the withdrawal. we moved on. he wound up losing to the republican candidate. there are folks who have said he lost because of what happened with the endorsement. other organizations and folks were unhappy about his abortion stance. happy people were making an issue. the math seemed fairly simple. it was a two round election. in the first round, the incumbent mayor was the republican, he was separated about two or three points. @cspanwj the problem was there was a third candidate running in the race.
-- three points. there was awas third candidate running the race. ultimately, it is the margin that she prevailed by. i am sure it did not help the campaign. the electorate in 2017 was to republican for him to overcome. next question? feel free to -- answer the first if it is not permissible. alabama's special senate mysteriousny -- the robert kennedy? he might have some outside shot. candidate recruitment in new island1 in the staten
district. the first few announcements seem do dish, any possible more reputable people? we appreciate short to the point questions. the question is about what is going on in the alabama senate and what is going with the permit based on -- the recruitment on staten island. >> for the alabama senate race, the primary is this tuesday. and nobody gets 50%, there will be a runoff between the top two candidates. it is alabama at the top. nobody will deny it. we have a democrat, jeff jones. he has connections. and if hengs strikes is in the right place in the right time --he has a few people running against him
including robert f kennedy jr.,. he is not related to the kennedy family. no law saying you cannot run if you are not a real kennedy. it is a low energy race. the worry is democratic voters will vote for the name they recognize, even if he is not the robert f kennedy jr. the last two days, we have seen some endorse jones. nobody is spending much money. we are going to see on tuesday how things look. maybe we'll have a runoff. hopefully, kennedy will not win outright. it goes.ave to see how the democrats are aware it is a problem. we are putting effort into it.
>> do want to grab 11 to? -- 11 too? >> staten island is the early part of york city that trump won. thatn from a district obama did well. the republican incumbent, dan ottoman, he is the former staten island district attorney. he did not indict the police officers who killed their gardener. it was a big controversy. n easily. it is a cut district. staten islands is pro-trump territory. we had a candidate who stepped up. he is an army veteran. escaping me at the moment. he is a purple heart veteran.
it is a good profile, but a tough district. new york is the most expensive place to air tv ads in, except for parts of new jersey. it is a district where we should compete. if we are talking about this district, it is a good sign for democratic. >> thank you. is kathleen name allen and i am running for the house of representatives in georgia's district. i am a progressive iand my platform is prohealth. we need to move to single payer. i would lose my job and i am ok with that. pro-life. career, which is -- and
pro-progress. we need to make progress on issues in our nation. more that needs to be done before they vote on issues. my question to you is -- how early in the process do you endorse a progressive candidate. you it until after qualifying? do you wait until after the primary? do you do first come, first serve? the question to us -- >> the question to us is how we go to our endorsement process. it is a terrific process. i am in the works of a lengthier post explaining it. i will try to answer in brief. generally speaking, daily kos avoids endorsing in the primaries. it is not a hard and fast rule. we do not want to be perceived
as the big national group telling people who to vote for when local folks can do an excellent job of picking candidates. typically, we wait until after primaries or until a deadline. not wait onwill our endorsements -- we'll probably wait on our endorsements until 2018. i could go on for far too long on this question. there are so many criteria and factors. the what i would mention is generally speaking, we tried to get involved in races we are not going to get huge amount of attention from organizations. the reason we do it is if you are a top-tier candidate running in a race, they will come in with money for you.
even if we could raise $100,000 from donations, the bang for the buck is going to be smaller than a lower tier race are there is less money involved. in the event there is a big wave we have a chance to capitalize on, we can help expand the field. if they claim seats, we want to claim the next. we can afford to take the risks. our community is very open to backing candidates who are longer shots. i have always been very proud of it. sometimes, the longer shots win. >> thank you. i do work with the dmo.
i am looking anyone on any hot races. they are mostly nonpartisan. we have 22,000 missiles up this year. anything that is not -- 22,000 municipals up this year. >> the question is about which municipal races are below the radar since they are so many of them that progressives should get involved in. one was in san antonio. included the, they most republican part of san
antonio, the democrats were able to win. in terms of the 22,000 races, it is difficult for us to cover those races, just as a reality of the number people in the races involved. i think there are some great blogs.-- great >> i would you been on one specific race. the detroit city race has come on our radar. >> did he get through? >> yes. >> in detroit, there have been voting problems for a number of
years. a young, rising star. it is a race that has come across our radar because of the importance of election administration. these are races that tend to get ignored. on a bigger level, the secretary of state races. these are also important. on the minutes of paul level, we probably be 10 times of the amount of people. we try to pay attentions to the notes and -- pay attention to the nuts and bolts. >> thank you. i would like to add the level of excitement i have seen on the , underegislative level most people radar, a record number of candidates are running in virginia. up to run are sucking
all over the country. we will see the level of excitement manifest itself. i am really excited. >> it sounds like i am trying to dump you, but i do not know what is going on in the races. election intate mississippi. i have not been able to determine with certainty who the democrat is. beenobscurely, i have heartened by the virginia races. i saw one dropped out. i was wondering if you had any insight if there is a replacement in the race? >> the question is there is a virginia legislative race for the democrat dropped out. do we have an insight to a replacement? the answer is yes.
>> on tuesday, there is a local seat. to replace the it brings the total of women hillaryin seats clinton one from 10 to 11 she won 17 of the current seats. there held our republicans and house of delegates in virginia. i am excited about what is happening in virginia this year. mississippi, you make a good point. really speciala animal when it comes to state legislative elections. the you know the state legislator can turn over the results? they are difficult to track because of who is what's down there. it is a unique system. we are keeping an i on it. -- an eye on it. on thethe folks watching
livestream, you can tweet us. get a robotn on robacher.ana there has been talk about the multiple democrats could screw us over and have to republicans advance. about danation is rohrabacher. is wherestrict arrested developed is set so -- [laughter] the question is whether if democrats are concerned about not being able to get to the
november development election. dailykos endorsed as a result? >> it would require remarkable circumstances of the second republican candidate whose name is alluding me -- is eluding me. same situation in the san bernardino see it. -- bernadino seat. republicans split the democratic chair as well. possible, but i would not overly sweat it. i cannot talk about the endorsement process. i do not think we will endorse until after the primary, which may be too late.
is a sorting process that one of the democrats developed a stronger profile whether it is through veterans through fundraising or a natural campaign. we will wait and see. the next question? >> my name is jim i am running for congress in new jersey's fourth district. [applause] >> thank you. you may recall when governor christie screamed at the guide to sit down and shut up. that was me. [laughter] [applause] >> that is my lyrical calling card in new jersey. most people know me as the should out -- as the sit down and shut up guy. i am running on a very
progressive campaign. i appreciate the fact you hold on not endorsing until primaries are over. i understand the difficult nature of it. give it, have 11 months until it happens. what would your the top three suggestions to someone like myself to engage the community? i write somewhat regularly. are there things you would say to help raise my profile within the community and get the support i'm going to need to win the race? >> that is an excellent question. what should a candidate who is interested in and endorsement -- in an endorsement to get an endorsement -- get in an endorsement from dailykos? you mentioned you wrote on the site. that is the number one way to do it. if you do not already, straight an account. i recommend you say for congress
so that they know you are running for congress. the thing that people are familiar with, it is a very big sites. there is a lot of content churning through. not everything you write is going to get through. that happens every once in a while for us. most of the time, it moves on. try to not get discouraged. keep posting. also, responding comments to users. it will have questions -- even if they do not have questions, engage with them. that is how you will find supporters you probably will have in your district or straight. they will want to volunteer. those are the best way. also, share the stuff you write on social media. supportersth your directly on your a list. having your supporters
come to daily kos is a good thing. not all of them will be to familiar -- will be familiar with it. you do not want to say, everyone, sign up and say how awesome i am. you wanted to be organic. those are things i would emphasize. when the community gets excited about someone, that factors into our opinions. connectiondraw the which is what you are doing and what the topic of the post this. that is the way to build yourself as a member of the community. not just being the guy who is sort of their two ways attention for himself. --e david said, everything is sort of there to raise attention for himself. by david said, everything
involves engagement. >> and analyst, i am not running for congress. [laughter] i have a question about democratic over performance in some of the special elections. we are in a moment where democratic enthusiasm is high. democraticic -- high turnout is high. my concern is the affect went overall turnout is low. havewondering if you guys looked at democratic over performance versus turnout? as you have been telling the special elections and looking at it? >> we have seen democratic over performance in the special elections, but how much of it has to do with turnout in general for the special elections is lower? it? we been i analyzing >> i have taken a look at special elections going back to
2004. this trying to answer that question among others. i believe the special election in a midterm year or a presidential year are pretty good guides for what is going to happen during the general election. it is a row concern. is it just low turnout when the other side is not bothering to come out?
we seen for a better than 2008 elections go. one measure i have been working on. if we had a general election this year, i'd be pretty excited. next can happen in the year. especially given the sort of countrye have in this now. keep your fingers and toes crossed. a we're going to take question here from online. from joe. what are the key states for in 2018?legislatures >> well. glad you asked. a lot ground to make up in state legislation. we have a target rich is shaping upat to be a very good year. wetly special elections that
spoke of, state special elections. majority have been further down the ballot. inflipped two seats oklahoma. [applause] for 2018, let's not get ahead of 2017. there are elections happening year as well. virginia house of delegates is democrats in a pretty severe minority there. 17 seats down. chance to make inroads there. that impact things like committee make up. democrats will have a lot more power. 2018, include places like minnesota house. in new hampshire, senate.e this november we have a chance to pick up in washington state senate with a special election there. if for some reason we don't,
for 2018.op target if we do it will be a narrow one seat majority. to solidify up more that. the colorado state senate has a one seat republican majority. flip that. 2018 shaping up to be good year to do that. in light of which seats on the ballot. thoughts on two cycle targets? >> two cycle targets includes the michigan house. one of the most gerrymander chambers in the country. democrat keep winning more votes for the state wide for the state house there. it is a multicycle opportunity. keep up the democratic energy we're seeing for 2018 and 2020. targetslticycle includes florida state senate. are not great but not
terrible. given that florida is pretty 50-50 state. they have a real chance there. be huge in terms of redisstricting. wisconsin state senate is multicyclesible opportunity. don't sleep on iowa either. seems tos to be -- it be turning more republican. or so said that a decade as well. that back.an flip taba >> one for 2018, you mentioned north carolina? state house.lina forgot the -- i would never state the new york senate. 2018. situation. funny hah hah in north
carolina. there will be new elections on in state legislative maps north carolina. house and senate in 2018. we don't know what the maps look like. they might not be much better than now. they can't be much worse. to break thence republican supermajority at the state house. that would help the democratic governor a lot. carolinaep on north either. question. >> nancy jones. that i'mtell you little overwhelmed depth and expertise analytics on this panel. i appreciate you. lot.ead you a most of what i know about outside where i live. come from you guys. question that i've been wondering about.
all about inou follow your work. goingf the races that are .n have been nationalized for instance, tulsa. and others. not getting national attention. dig what i see, i don't into it that deep. winning where they are nationalized. i'm wondering if you have any if you thought about that. >> the question is, whether inocrats are fairing better 2017 elections and races that do not appear to have been nationalized versus races that nationalizet gotten at a osoff.
>> there's a degree that can become national. georgia six is the most example that. where the incredible enthusiasm democratssm among created a response among republican voters if the causing them to turn out higher than they would have had. at the same time, there's only so much a we can do to control it. it's not something we should dwell on too much. example, kansas was another situation it was very under the radar. party came in spent money, did robocalls, ran the end. may have had helped to save that seat. up around six points. because of increased republican out. that was something they did because they needed to do to win
the seat. beyond our control. we can't -- i don't think we -- advance any activities to keep republican turn out down. voters out to get and get the voters who believe out. we do hope there are more of them. are.nk there to leavee have republican voters to republican. out, that'st turn great for us in terms of winning the election. if the republicans spend a lot money to spur turn out voters e have to deal with that. would say, i outressional high turn viewing. people have been very interested in them. been extremely republican areas. points in kansas four that georgia six in
montana, very close. even though if feels not great to lose them because republicans levels.out at high good news.ll really >> one last time. you're watching live stream and send a question, @dk elections. question. >> somebody who work in the speaker'shampshire office and legislature. i'm looking ahead, we're seeing more talk about redistricting and how these folks are elected. has theseire wonderful districts that help very swingy.tions they also as we've seen over the six or eight years, winners sexual assault that -- they win seats and hold
seats. defender thatbing .eld a seat are we doing anything to educate to looko do the data, what a legislative body should be looking like we get there.fore that log is going to have to get through that chamber if it's be changed. >> so the question is about new state house which is one of the craziest state chamber in the country. based on newmbers hampshire's population, if the u.s. congress had the same ratio of population to members, we ofld have 96,000 members congress.
[laughter] $100 a year. idea. that think, how do we educate people for such small races. do we avoid electing all people.uly awful new hampshire is a real laboratory for that. on that?s say, newk it's fair to hampshire is unique. voters in each district and such a sort of low rate of return for your office holder in building career in politics and being member of the state house. it's partially about education.
partially about the folks who step up to run year after also high rate of turnover in the house in new hampshire. having to find new folks to step forward and make that time commitment and making the commitment to run. districts running for easy. is not it's about recruitment. having good democrats in these districts against these crazy republicans, is going to help republicans out of office. hampshire is new special. about thing i want to add new hampshire, this is a place districts small. the candidates can meet pretty voters. the it might seem like, you should really try hard to win these seats. something that is crazy in in 2006, we had democratic
wave, the new hampshire legislature, the democrats took control of both houses first since 1870's. thatepublican incumbents night they were on vacation. you can't take your election for granted more than going on vacation on election night. should really try hard, some of these people win hard.ey don't try add.e other thing i would they get paid $100 a year. you get the quality of the for.lature that you pay i think that's something we've legislatures and beyond that, when officials are paid not like other officials you don't get quality people. you end up with people who are independently wealthy. can afford to take put in time and effort into
winning and doing the legislative work. they're not getting any income for it. have 400 people in a small state and not paying them badhing, you'll end up with apples. only so much to be about that without changing how much statelue your legislature. it's not a popular stand to take. like the idea of elected officials going out making whole elected money being official. they need to -- if it's a serious job, they need to be a serious person. one.a year is not >> we'll take a question from here.ternet from bill. on maineour take second congressional district. weasel vulnerable?
you run.ll if >> i think he is vulnerable by virtue being a very close swing district. also, i think in special thetion result, especially legislative special election results, we are seeing a lot of snap back from whiter or lower educated districts like maine second. but throughout the midwest for instance. resultsspecial election are showing us that these voters to thepermanently lost trumpish version of the gop. are having second thoughts. concernld be my main with maine second. whether we can get these voters .ack
>> maine second, it's an odd district. the portion of maine. lot of rural areas north of portland. it was in democratic hands for a until 2014 wave. won while trump was carrying the district by ten points. it seems special but some rural back.shifted are shifting first two terms, he put his head down. getting his head into trump things. not been handling questions trumpcarevote for very well. we have good bases in the rural part of the district.
i think this is one of the areas in a good year, it can ship back. like reelectnd to republican incumbents if they're moderate enough. i think some of it it's going to come home. of the disguise is coming off on him. i think this is a winnable district definitely. >> next question. >> this is chance for you to talk about turnout. with thes doug, i'm california organization to flip all 14 republican congressional seats. in our primary strategy if you out.is turn difference between presidential turn out and midterm turn out is to 35 percent. if we can tighten that up and closer to -- achieve close tore presidential attornen out lot of the seats will get closer to what we've seen in the
election. will be interested in your on that formulation. question is what is the role of turn out. shrinking the turn out gap midterm and general what kind of focus important staff plays in going 2018?d into >> california because of the top it's very possible at the top of the ticket race, there's only two democrats. we have an opportunity that way. lower turnout over republican turn out. is a very broad topic. little bits a address. to i'll look at it through specific
race.f the georgia six which i'm sure everyone paid lot of attention to and watching at home. that race, john ossoff set record for democratic turn out in special election. problem was, republicans also set a record. touches on some other questions that we've answered before. david beard was talking about this in particular. up -- it was such a republican district. i think the rest of -- there's i many -- the thing i think lost in wednesday morning quarterbacking and the blame race inut that particular, there's so many are bluer than georgia six. including lot of those california districts that you mentioned. of them.
that same we have kind of turnout surge, if republicans also have a big turn surge, our surge is bigger. there are many seats will come play. the trump results in georgia six close.ry that kind of had a lot of people thinking it's a swing district and close district. it really wasn't. a lot of swinging districts out there. i think that if this enthusiasm keeps up and donald trump keeps being donald trump, which he be, i think that we can keepof kind of leapfrogging republicans on the turnout side. >> i would add. threertant to think about broad buckets. democratic voters who may or may not turn out swing voters who breathe sigh. it's true that you could see
problems with republican out. popularity know competitive senate race probably. you could see problems are out.lican turn if that happens, okay. it's not we should focus on getting our turn out as best we can be. probably not going to be all the way to presidential level. but the closer we can get to that that's better. going after swing voters in the district. the republican vote will be republican vote is. our control. >> there's a question here from online. is, what are your models telling you about 2018 and senate?e last year, in 2014, we ran
models to try to forecast the outcome of the presidentialthe side, we along with everyone else were incorrect in our predictions. but on the senate side, the be quitened out to accurate. there weren't really upsets in the senate races. on the not enough data house side for us -- not enough to monitor house races. we haven't had all the retirements we'll have. can sort ofhat we answer more broadly what we see in 2018. >> one thing you can do is look ballotgeneric house which by itself is vague. toask people who do you want see who's in charge. you can plug that into -- we model through own elections.
you plug ten point generic seeing, at least 30 point gain in the house, which probably know is enough to flip it. gain right. >> yes, 30 seat gain. is, are historic applicablereally here. this is the most gerrymandering map we've seen with the democratic wave. is theestion how high levy that they've built against the wave. -- can't really say with certainty because there's not much historical for that. model butnot have a we have been noticing numbers extremelythat are favorable as far as a number of
declareds who already house races and amount of money they're raising. these house races aren't set yet. we'll take a look at these on.ers later maybe third or 4t fourth quarter settled and you have a better idea who's ready where. that together with the special election, economy mentioned the chartst off compared to anything we've seen century. 2004, 2002. good right now. if we had the midterm election this year, i'd be really excited. a lot can happen in the next year. think it's even more than luck. we say lot can happen.
guy in the white house, much more than a lot can year. in the next thee are -- i think volatility is much higher than we encountered before. the 1860's.ce >> my name is peter azar and boston.m first timer with my family including my teenage son. we hold resistance -- we're not holdical but we do resistance meetings once a month just to keep our sanity. question about the special elections and hoping to expertise. we watch them in montana, south carolina and georgia. disappointed but understanding that the trends were favorable. what's your opinion about whether these candidates that didn't win.ut should they run again as
the generalring election or do you have data to suggest that probably it's time a different candidate to compete? i don't know the answer but i'd to hear your responses >> the question is, the in thetes who ran various congressional special elections this year, do we have opinions on whether they should run again or whether democrats options?ok to new not clear.it's there's not a lot of great special election winners losing at the next general election. they tend to -- once somebody wins a special election, they tend to get the benefit of the doubt for their first general election. memories of the special election are still in people's
head. tend to just -- they voted special. i think -- we separate them. four and south carolina race, those are really tough districts. candidates ran incredible campaigns as incredible you can do in such a deep red district. getink they would probably a benefit of the doubt. candidates a lot of in districts that are pretty red. with montana and georgia six, i -- i don't think there's anything inherent against a candidate running again. money, ranse reasonably close, it's got do.thing they decide to i don't think there's anything wrong with it. if there are other candidates
who are also strong, i don't anything wrong with that happening in the primary. >> [inaudible] >> one of the oklahoma special thetion a candidate lost in 2016 regular election, won the 2017 special election. ofhink that is a reflection the changing political thing we're in. can look at how poorly democrats doing in all the special elections previously up to and on election day in 2016. a big shift as trump entered intoe and office towards democrats. i think that's a reflection of shifting. i think that's something -- it's
a little different going from to a special which is lot more volatile from a special a general. >> i missed the first 15 minutes upi apologize if this come already. i wanted to talk about the midwest and get you're thoughts specifically on the senate that we have there. and wisconsin and ohio and michigan and pennsylvania lastdering what happened year where you think the races stand. most of thoset senators are pretty well liked have varying degrees of competition we can debate about a while. they're all key governor's race well. as just love your thoughts on those. >> the question is, what we see happening in the key senate
races where democratic senators states many of we think by trump, how 2018?ill be fairing in >> these are states that trump narrowly won. year, we should be okay. said, -- the republicans don't seem to have really top tier candidates in any of them michigan, we might get kid candidate.ublican it might not happen. are now.e we that said, he's probably not the that republicans looking at. in pennsylvania, paul casey is liked.well he's won twice.
was still narrow. the top republican candidates, declared yet. lou bartletta. pretrump pennsylvania. passed anti-immigrant measures. bad.it was pretty he's volunteering test whether the trump model can work in pennsylvania for people who aren't trump in 2016. i doubt it will. see. he's at least someone the white house likes. trump is approval rating are looking like they are now, people probably aren't going to want a mini-trump. as for other races, wisconsin, do have potentially interesting candidate, kevin nichols. he has rich money backers.
he was head of the college in 2000.of america different speeches of him praising al gore. >> at the democratic convention i hear >> he did come out ahead of that saying, i was a democratic. look how smart i am now. happens there. [laughter] there's some other republicans there. about running >> i love your impersonation of meat head.n show of hands, does north dakota as -- count as midwest. great plains? next question. la i'mny name is la cofounder of the district project. excited to be playing in a bunch of virginia race this year. from the surge and excitement and national
interest, which is obviously awesome in state legislatives, are there any that you're seeing where we are now that are pretty tomising as we look forward 2018. are there any sort of trends or atngs that you are looking aligning and concerned about. >> what earth trends we're looking at in 2017 and 2018? >> you mentioned the excitement in virginia. is a real thing. i touched on this before. amongot just excitement the electorate that we've seen manifest in down ballot special country. across the just folks stepping up to run running for use is hard. raise money, you have to knock on doors. it is not a cake walk. not fun. it is a rude awakening for some folks who want to run for office. they hung in there and they kept office.for this dramatic up tick in folks
virginia,p to run in is already happening in congressional races all across the country. really positive inicator shocking this year virginia. it's sort of a sub issue of that. women stepping forward to run this year is historic in virginia. i think we'll continue to see that. ande legislatures congressional race recruitment across the country. more than half of the onllengers taking republicans in state in virginia this year are women. it's truly remarkable. i look forward to that trend continuing. i think it will. administration has done, nothing republicans have done. ofy've held all the reign power in federal government. has helped women. womenlegislatures attack have. and ongoing. i think that women who already
areve in their communities stepping up and taking that next crucial difficult step of running for office. think that will continue. >> also point to fundraising is of whereod indicator we are now. just in the last quarter, we saw a lot of people who haven't run for office before are in the suburban districts pulling in $400,000 and $500,000 a quarter. in itself s -- is a really indicator. we're playing on existing rules now. extremely important to raise that early money. >> lot of candidates are running haven'ticts that we fielded serious democratic candidate in a long time. georgia seven, that district has barely been getting any
attention for a long time. there are districts where where we don't have notable candidates yet. i'm seeing pennsylvania eighth suburbs. that's one that is really close to romney and trump. it's all funsay rainbows. it's a good trend to see people who are running incredible campaigns. will throw numbers i out quickly from a new website ed project435.com. they have looked at how many democratics and republican have filed with the sec to run for the house. paperwork doesn't nestle mean you'll run. step. necessary first there are 241 republican held the house.
of those we have democratic filed 191 ofo them. that's 79% of all republican seats, 50 left where we still need candidates. august 2017. democrats only have 194 seats if the house and republicans by contrast, have only filed if 62 of those districts. just 32%. i think in aggregate it shows lies.the enthusiasm it's the hard numbers really it up. >> to the gerrymandering question. canou know which states we get a ballot measure. did.at california can do we have to vote out the change? to get that >> this is a great question. in which states can citizens put
measure on the ballot to require independent whichricting versus states where actually have to vote out the republicans and vote in democrats. group is much bigger than the former. steven wolf who was member of team, he has done a lot of work on this. was here to answer this question. number of states where we can do is small.sures ohio would be an example. >> i think michigan have gerrymandering states are process is left. >> important point to make in terms of ballot measures, most measuresstates, ballot have been attempted. sometimes point times. that regardless whether or not ballot measures remedy is think it'si something to be relied on. voting out republicans in the legislature and governor office is much more reliable way
redistricting.r host of other issues too like rights. >> some of these democrats, they would rather have safe seats if forever than risk their seats to get a majority. ohio wheren in during 2011 and 2012, democrats did sadg sabotage attempts to pt this on the ballot. pennsylvania, you did have some democratic party leaders. they did work with the theblicans drought district. they went to safe districts. is worthwhile endeavor. you need to work around the democratic establishment. on them.not rely fast something we definitely need to be aware of. steven's map. he had a good map of states
is possible. total number of states where this could happen is eight could get a you ballot measure on to create independent redistricting commissions. problem is most of them are very small. they might be good governance. for democrats fart san party, a ballot measure on, that's not a good use of resources. big two is michigan and ohio where that's possible. there's a group in ohio trying now. florida is a possibility there. call fairass districts amendment a number of years ago. legislatureis, the still has the power to draw the they just creates restrictions on what they are allowed to do. the problem is, this is what they're toldo when they can't do something. they do it anyway, they wait to
get sued. and overened over again particularly in north carolina. texas as well. really all over the place. of paps thrown out by the courts this year, side. the courts on our the problem is, we spend years and years with republicans winning elections under these illegally gerrymandered line. it would be great if redistrictinger commission. also you need to 60% for a to pass not just 50%. onhink probably, focusing elections, individual elections is the better place to focus. a couple of minutes left. going to take questions real quick. >> you guys got great tools. is much more accessible to get to.
is there any work being done to accessible? more >> the question is about the available.kos makes dailykos elections makes available being more prominent on the site. are working hard to try to year.those back last the election. unfortunately, that meant all the links to all our data tools and stuff, jeff has worked on and others worked on, everyone, we'll be bringing those back just as soon as we can. question. >> running for the united states house of representative, new district.rth i'm running against congressman n show smith.
he has not lived in our state since 1983. he lived in virginia for so long. kids get instate tuition to virginia schools. not held townhall meeting in our district for 25 years. thistime for us to retire 37 year incumbent. i'm curious to know, the republican with the r plus 7. andave 126,000 democrats 148,000 republicans. 220 plus unaffiliated voters who roomnk there's the real for organizing and winning this district. any analysis on new jersey's fighting four. me?you please share it with >> the question is, have we done analysis on specifically on new jersey's fourth congressional district. and the answer is, we probably have shared the maine analysis we've done which is the
presidential results by the congressional districts. in that district donald trump won it. bit closer four romneyarlier when mitt won it 54% to 45% for barack obama back in 2012. we will also be doing once jeff is finished with this beast calculating the presidential results for these thousands and thousands of districts, we're going to go back and we're going to look at the other statewide that took racist in -- race in 2016. those down along lines for congressional legislative district. races,uld include senate governor race and so forth. we'll also do the 2017 new gubernatorial election. that data, i would say expect to day.it before election [laughter] it's time. fork you everyone so much coming. thank you for netroots nation.
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