tv Quadriga - America Backs Off - China Steps In Deutsche Welle November 3, 2017 1:30pm-2:00pm CET
for. one thing. the soviet union is breaking apart. the members of the russian federation would have to find their own way. canonically . would. be credibly difficult. this democracy was a lie the elections were for all three privatization was robbery the soviet union territory where does russia stand today and moscow's empire were syrians starting november fifth to w. hello and welcome to quadriga donald trump is packing his bags for asia the longest trip of his presidency so far it won't be an easy one even though he does plan to
do some golfing in japan had the most important stuff is china where he'll encounter his newly exalted counterpart in ping the recent communist party congress wrote the chinese president's name and to dogma into the constitution cementing his status as on a par with the nation's founding father mao zedong g.-d. is behind a course that has seen china doubling down on projecting power economically politically and militarily and trunked nearly a year after his election he has little to show in the way of domestic success and abroad he risks isolation with his policy of america first america backs off china steps in that's the question we posed today on quadriga and here to answer it are our guests it's a pleasure to welcome she's an expert on china and security affairs and she says she's in ping projects an image of china as a great power that can off. for the world
a new approach to tackle problems and is ready to take more international responsibility and reassess clute is editor in chief for hundreds but global and he says china's time horizon is much longer than donald trump's on that scale china is certainly a rising power america is stagnating and that's not a good thing. and a great pleasure to have seeming with us on the show once again he's a freelance journalist from china and he says whether china will become the next superpower depends how other parts of the world position themselves for example europe and i'd like to start with usually being she is the new strongman of china apparently but will china emerge stronger as a result of his policies. to be frank we don't know there are very very contradictionary signals coming from china on their one hand the economy is facing a deepening crisis that we see it that the money involved are opened
since twice three or four years is still the grose stagnating and on the other hand the expenses are increasing very quickly not only for military purposes but also for insurance for prayers for star belies ing the society for. fighting against economic. ecological problems around from that point of view i'm not very sure whether she jinping this policy they mark. to organize the march but dominated by state whether this policy would succeed in that in that sense would you say that the international press is overreacting when they say that jean ping is the new mousing dong. yes certainly if
which is compere mounted don't. and see. his henchmen just stated this top and instantly we could also compares jumping wisdom jumping and jumping traveled to nine hundred ninety to two thousand china the man didn't have any office any longer and he just gave two very short interviews and instantly we experience the great wave for reform and opening up to policy but being had together sort of team of his is only of he's per person we see that he could not get through with so much not a part of them were jumping could afford to go to the back of some doubts there that we've just heard about how strong this new strongman really is your
opening statement says that china that he is making an effort to project an image of china as a great power and to offer a new approach now for years the international community has been calling on china to become a stakeholder to really take responsibility in the international system would you say it is now prepared to do that selectively yes it is but i have to stress selectively so it's not ready to take over the position of the united states for example but i think we see that in the last five years and this you didn't ping there is small self-confidence and more effort to really contribute to certain global issues peacekeeping is one of the examples where china has really stepped up its profile and where we see that it becomes more active and it's important to see that if china talks about responsibly stakeholder it has the ride or thinks it has
the right. to define what responsibility means so it will not just do what the west expect it to do certainly here in germany at the meeting of the g. twenty powers in hamburg this spring. season king was making every effort to look like the great protector of the climate treaty just as the us was deciding that it wants to get out of the paris accord under his klute would you say that this is going to be a bumpy process this process of the jumps just meant as china rises and america as you said in your opening statement stagnates or declines absolutely and it's first it was interesting not just in hamburg with respect to climate change but even before that in davos. with respect to world trade he's positioning himself as the successor to the old american leadership of the world order which is very
fascinating from china's point of view is it of course incontestable that china is gradually reclaiming its its historical place as a world leader they they think back to the tongue dynasty and and beyond and they think of the last few centuries of western dominance as an aberration but i also know i mean you said will it be a bumpy ride it will be a very bumpy ride in the chinese leadership is that's a good thing aware of this i'm told that the chinese leadership has been fascinated for years by studying periods of history because usually what you get when one world power stagnant or declines in another rises is unfortunately war and apparently they're especially interested in studying the late nineteenth century when germany arose in the british empire stagnated and that led to tensions and eventually war because of course their whole thing is about peaceful rise about avoiding that but the bumps will be there and i'm sure when to get to them can you
avoid conflicts of interest especially when there is someone like donald trump on the other side the other reason why it's going to be bumpy and not entirely a good thing is. chinese rise does not mean the rise of the values or ideals that the west has traditionally stood for even if we've hypocritically not honored them but at least that we strive for i think china makes no regions at all that this will be a more democratic or just world ok let's talk about some of those bumps a year ago donald trump we remember back to the time just before the election was doing a lot of china bashing but following his first meeting with his chinese counterpart at his florida resort home donald trump indicated that the two of them could become the best of friends at least some of the time at least he is now singing in ping's praises let's look at how this relationship is evolving. for donald trump the
biggest threat to the u.s. economy is china the meeting will be a difficult one he tweeted before she's visit in april and complained about the high trade deficit china warned of a trade war but at their meeting itself in florida there was the appearance of harmony and the following presidential insight we had a long discussion already. and so far i have gotten nothing absolutely nothing. but we have our friendship i can see that and i think we're ok we're going to. do it and i look forward at that meeting both trump and she were able to save face as trump learned from out. joining after the party congress donald trump said that ping had emerged as something like the king of china and he said in the same interview with fox news
that he thinks she is a quote very good person how would you say ping and the chinese leadership would be reacting to the statements from donald trump that are nearly falling. as suppose they are not going to react at all because they know how trump can be in predictable. they know that trump has to be very frank. back. to say. the donald trump could play ways pressure very different kind of pressures this bashing is one sort of plea blackmail. and this this game worse in north korea or with. china see could also regard it as a beauty shop
a huge stage of pressuring china and then are you saying you know the words they don't trust donald trump no not at all but donald trump's doesn't trust either doesn't trust. i don't think so and under has. done trump said in the interview that i referred to just now that he has the best relationship with xi jinping of any president president would you say that is true and what accounts for this radical change in tone over the course adama trying to present i mean honestly between his tweets and his statements this is showmanship i mean that it means absolutely nothing i think she jinping we often in the west think to the chinese have a plan and everything i do think she jinping will run circles around this man intellectually so does so do they all i don't think anyone interpret i mean reads
and takes takes any places any currency on donald trump saying we're good friends now after this meeting. so it i think they just disregard that and get down to a long term interest power calculations both angola merkel and she jinping i think do it that way so go to one. aside from the overall notion of trust. what kind of relationship do you think we might see evolve between these two leaders and also these two countries certainly one of trump's big issues has been to trade and particularly china. steele since the election campaign he has talked about possibly putting chinese punitive duties on chinese steel so far it hasn't happened but you think the last word has really been spoken no the last word has not been spoken because this is one of the topics that donald trump really seems to care about the unfairness of the all the free trade agreements that the
united states has signed in the past they have none with china but there is this huge trade deficit and so this will remain a topic i'm sure but there are topics that sort of overshadow or take priority over this also i mean the u.s. at the moment has its hands full to renegotiate nafta so this will probably keep it busy but they already introduced punitive. customs on aluminum foil or something like that so the metals are starting but they're not really you know it's not a trade war yet so this will remain structurally so and also in terms of strategic thinking the strategic ambition of the side i think this is where the major mistrust between the united states and china comes from that china doesn't
trust the mission of the united states where it's always this idea of the u.s. containing or trying to contain china and its rise and on the hand the u.s. doesn't trust the ambition that china has in the asia pacific region speaking of the asia pacific region and. one of the ways that the u.s. had intended to try to contain china was the transpacific trade and investment agreement t p p donald trump's first act as president was to get out of that agreement did he in essence hand the rest of asia. to china by doing so i don't think the issue is so plain so simple. we can study china's response a palm. tree fitting t.p. many people are suppose that china would step in in the beauty of other
trade allies aligns with. it doesn't happen yet china is not intended apparently to do that instead china. despite all the declaration of protecting of free trade china and. chris hughes something else china. for example use euro just one sided to westm and without any. fair play of for the protection of in ways many china shut down the only market for european enterprises it is not the just the policy of xi jinping but she jumping continues and i think. it is quite obvious that the united staes in some term just follow china's example. donald trump says america first china doesn't say that but trying x.
percent china first or not. well actually the chinese ambassador to the u.s. said if the u.s. says america come first and we need to protect ourselves from the trade deficit it's like looking in the mirror so what you just said is reflected on the chinese side as well and in fact. said to us a little bit earlier that certainly donald trump it or that that china is not going to be looking to play a values based leadership role but that's hardly what donald trump is looking for either his approach to foreign policy is explicitly transactional so what would you say he will be looking for from g.'s in ping in this meeting in china in terms of getting a good deal well first i just wanted to briefly also respond to your previous question about these trade deals because to me that illustrates i mean that there
are bigger issues north korea the south china sea that will get through but the heat the his response to these trade deals is to me an illustration of that his intellectual failure and pepper haps of the entire group around him to understand the issue of china's rise and america's relative decline because in the trade transpacific free trade deal he had an opportunity of all the pacific regions with america but without china to tie them together at the same time he had an opportunity to do the same thing with the transatlantic free trade area to bind the traditional west closer together and he said out of the protectionist impulse totally misguided no to both l o l allowing china he could have contained china just in that that context quite well allowing china to rise in taking america out of it requires forcing all these other countries third countries to look for leadership elsewhere so just in that. i'll stop there for now but i just wanted to get that in and just briefly what would you say donald trump will be looking for
from this meeting i think he's interested in anything that both with germany which has a larger trade surplus towards america than with china he looks for anything that allows him to declare victory in that issue they're exploiting us but selling more to us than we sell to them a rhetorical point mainly because he's not going to succeed and he's going to look he's going to really concentrate on north korea getting the china to solve this problem and prosequi threat dropping more threats that if they don't he will solve the problem which would not be a solution at all and i think the south china sea may come up and i doubt that taiwan will come up because i consider that stable so we talked about what the two leaders might have in common that transactional approach but another thing of course is their willingness and desire to lay claim to power she misses no opportunity to reinforce the notion of china's superpower status and he has thrown
to the wind the former self imposed restraint of chinese leaders. a show of strength by china to assert dominance in asia and the world the conflict over islands and marine rights in the south china sea has been smoldering for years with both china and neighboring states laying claim that has also repeatedly sparked disputes with the u.s. . another showdown is with north korea over nuclear weapons trump expects she to send stronger signals reigning in north korean leader kim jong il and china is also expanding economically investing worldwide the country is staking its claim in africa in the contest over valuable natural resources. china no longer wants to be the west's factory it wants to drive its own innovations in addition it's the largest creditor of the u.s. is china on its way to becoming the world's new number one superpower.
certainly donald trump will be looking to give some kind of message on north korea he has repeatedly said he wants to see china exercise more influence over north korea can it and will it. i'm gosh we're have china has done too little. steps. ahead of this visit of trump and beijing the one is to china has joined more international sanctions including of shutting up or enterprises of those career in china and the other is china tried to to. paved the way to set up a new relationship to sounds career which is to to reduce detentions and saw and if donald trump comes to beijing being by have said to two of the my friend i've done
or what i can or what we're can you demand more what i have done would you expect any of that to make any difference in north korea's behavior no not will go to in fact i speak to north korea as well if you like but it's also like about to ask about the south china sea it is rated by many experts as one of the most volatile geo political hot spots in the world could we see it become in fact the site of hot conflict well conflict. it can always spiral out of control but i think so far we see that all sides try to sort of keep it you know within limits actually you could have expected more after the ruling of the hague but because there was a government change in the philippines it made it possible to really open the door for a better relationship between the philippines and china or north korea i think that
china will not do more cannot do more probably because their biggest priority is that north korea stays on the map they don't want an implosion of north korea they don't want the millions of refugees that come with that and they don't want a real knighted korean peninsula with american troops at the chinese border that's priority so on the south china sea i think it will depend on what donald trump will say will stations of his trip i mean he will go also to vietnam to the apec summit and this room of that there will be a speech about open and free. so there will be some announcement of the concerning the indo-pacific and for the chinese the word in the pacific a loan is a no go where they talk of the pacific ocean and the indian ocean but not of both
as a connected thing so i think there will be some counter movements led by japan australia india and the united states and so i don't see that the facts on the ground will change and i was cleared is it possible that if donald trump doesn't get at least the appearance of stronger chinese action on north korea that he could turn sour some people say one of the reasons he's been making nice is that he has kept on hoping china. right exercise and leverage they are and if this relationship were to go sour either because of the south china sea or because of north korea what consequences with that have well i'm sort of smirking because you asked me if it's possible that donald trump could unexpectedly turn sour and i think i mean that's the whole thing about donald trump is the unpredictable and sour is not even the word he just look at his tweets at two a.m.
he that the scary thing is or by the way it's ironic that taiwan which was for many decades the big issue really appears stable given that on one side and on the other side we have these much more dangerous conflicts and what makes them so dangerous is that in my opinion a china is the only rational actor of all the ones involved of the three major ones involved because north korea well is probably maybe rational but is is difficult and now donald trump he may just be faking. to be being mad or he may he may be it and i think it's completely unpredictable the chinese side of it was good you described it very well i think with donald trump at the at the helm on the other side it's become totally unpredictable and i think. that could blow up in the south china sea i think it is inevitable that long sooner or later we will in that chinese what they consider a chinese pond the rest of the world must cannot back down and say these these are international waters you cannot build on your islands permanent aircraft carriers
so that will lead to conflict and what kind of conflict and what kind of intentions do you think we will see from china in regard to the south china sea if we look at the party congress she is he said very strongly china will defend its interests and china has been investing heavily in cutting edge military technology would you say china will not back down when it comes to the south china sea and could we then in fact see a conflict or. have virtually taking the word of my mom i think is strongest a message sure she did last night to congress is to make china's army at the top of the water not just china's economy but china's army with a short time bomb to. keep still so mr wade to so hot conflict yes or no yes yes yes i suppose even the military. ok song
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