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tv   The Day - News in Review  Deutsche Welle  November 23, 2017 11:02pm-11:30pm CET

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and they sort of vary in a very german way he went about it and sort of scratched the bullet point live but then when you look at why he blew off those coalition talks it's not i mean the most contested issue in these cut coalition talks was the refugee policy and apparently the greens really came around and gave the f.t.p. and the christian social union very much so i don't think he really made it about issues it was about strategy and that's what it's depressing about it that he would not take on the rest of the responsibility to form a government in hard times just so the f.t.p. gets a couple of percentage points plus in the next elections or maybe in four years before we continue let's just go back a little bit in time because this all began this chain of events began with the collapse of those coalition talks that we've mentioned perhaps just perhaps they were doomed from the very start it was certainly never going to be easy to square
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the circle and bring together four parties with very different political cultures let's have a quick look at how the talks evolved. the german parliamentary association behind the reichstag in berlin for weeks the eyes of germany had been focused on its balcony and reading lips and thoughts has become a kind of national sport. from the initial talks and got the impression there was a willingness to find common ground. if in. at some point everyone had to get down to business starting their own senseless deadlines is not a compromise. i can't shake this is a question that these gentlemen have no real desire to negotiate constructively and successfully if not i should say so. the frustration grew as did the weariness. if i just fall over from exhaustion there's no point in continuing. is the idea of a three way coalition gone with the wind.
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you're shaking your head well i want. my initial comment was how germany's proceed from outside and i think what's happening in germany is extremely bad for the european union because the leader has been waiting for i'm going to deliver has been the president of france and he's given two major speeches about europe and those speeches about europe have been absolutely linked to the german the fact that i'm one of those speeches came two days after the storm and election that's around speech it was a very disciplined speech was very important because. gave me something that the big siemens deal with china a big frankly german joint venture deal but he was saying what we need the german relationship we need to be much tighter and he said come over
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call and give me your thoughts about your opinion got your government together. angle america has never given a serious speech about europe and back home was waiting and now you have to wait a bit more his his options are limited if you think reckons options are limited his options are limited for his big ambitious plan for europe. well i mean i think it's true that there is some disappointment on the french side and certainly in brussels and around europe to a degree although i would also say that the expectations of what america would have been able to have done with this three way coalition with the liberals and the greens might have been a little bit high elsewhere in europe because parts of merkel's own party were never going to agree and are never going to agree to the kind of broad integration plans that mccrone has outlined not to mention the free democrats who are totally against many of if not all of what he has laid out and when we interviewed lintner recently he compared the macro plan to soviet style economics so i mean there there
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is. well it might be it might might seem a little bit over the over the top but it doesn't it doesn't show really a deep willingness to compromise with france on these issues i do think that they would have to reach some sort of compromise somewhere and i still think that will that will happen and it is certainly true that the europeans are very worried about this not just because of my call but just to keep sort of the daily business of the e.u. running without germany there without a government in germany that has real digital busy it's going to be very difficult on all kinds of fronts from defense to the euro to the expansion of the e.u. and so forth just to keep things running so i think that is a real issue and maybe that will give president steinmeyer in his discussions with s.p.d. leader martin short some leverage in playing this european card and saying this isn't just about germany it's about europe and taking responsibility for for for the e.u. here. and i just want to go back just to mention christian or
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a couple of times and matthew you've indicated that you believe that always in his motives were honorable and pulling the plug on the coalition talks we have no reason to believe otherwise there are many others however who asked the question is christiane who has suddenly become a sort. a relatively central figure in german politics is he charismatic or is he a rabble rouser is here is he a modernizer or is he. another wild fringe populist or. i don't think he's a fringe populist but he's certainly an opportunist and i think what you have to see is that linda took his career and his very young age and all his energy to rebuilding a party from scratch that was kicked out of the one is talking two thousand and thirteen and was basically at the point of vanishing into the delta and that's what i really give him credit for is that he took up the task and he went for it and he did it and excellent job on that and it was a great campaign and he got their party back into the bundestag and i can
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completely understand that he does he's afraid of him if he. had to crumble again so that's what are what i give him credit for but yet now he's at the point where he's in the center of what's happening and what's important to the world and so he now has to take on a different perspective and he can stay in to sort of the party perspective on to what is happening in germany right now that fit and also he really i think he's sincere about this the f.t.p. was a terrible junior coalition partner in anglo american second coalition it didn't deliver on anything and it became a party of of lobbyists and of especially bush for interest and i think at the back of it in his mind is i don't want to say the voters again and actually germany is desperate need of change absolutely i think we need to move on a little bit now and just have a look at the when we talk about change the big question is what happens next and there are really three options for how this crisis might evolve let's have
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a look at those free options. first scenario medical forms a minority government together with the greens or the free democrats postwar germany has never had a minority government the downside a minority government would have to build majorities case by case second scenario the grand coalition. but the social democrats chairman says no he prefers the third scenario new elections the downside a long period of uncertainty with no real prospect of the vote turning out any differently which scenario is the most likely. let's begin with the scenario of a minority government how promising is that for germany's future for europe's future we're going to want your boat ready i think that europe's future not the best option but for
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a germany it will be an experiment worth trying maybe though i'm not really in favor it because i think the ability is more important right now but what matthew said about germany sort of falling asleep over the grand coalition it would be really interesting to see a government that really has to work on issues that has to find new majorities on each of the issues it wants to realize so that would really energize the political debate and maybe. also be a good thing with regard to the fringe parties that we've seen springing up maybe also in part for this sort of or done with politics. however matthew there are those i was reading an academic the other day from kiel university saying that germans don't favor minority government because he reminds them too much of weimar but also it doesn't promise stability well i doubt most germans living can actually remember weimar at this stage it doesn't have to be as stable as weimar was and if
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it only lasts for a couple of years that might not be a bad thing especially for a party like the s.p.d. which would have time to regroup to rebuild itself it's in complete disarray right now and its prospects if there were a new election are or are pretty dim to be honest so i think that given the options out there for the s.p.d. in particular which has three bad options going back into a grand coalition a minority government or new elections they might decide a minority government with the social democrats would be a minority. if the social democrats got into bed with the with the conservatives until americans considered you've got a grand coalition but the numbers add up. right and they have made clear that they don't want to do that again this was the government we've had over the past four years and still haven't and a caretaker basis and for various reasons they feel that they were voted out the last time they only got twenty percent they lost a huge portion of their voters and so they don't think that they have the
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legitimacy to enter another government and there is something to that and another important point there though is that their membership really is against a lot of rank and file people in the s.p.d. do not want to go into a coalition again although i think many of their m.p.'s would welcome the opportunity and many of their form for former ministers and current ministers would like the opportunity to serve again but now i think the grand coalition so debilitating for germany we have to remember i think the figure is i'm just doing the math in my head but i think the grand coalition the parties that made up the grand coalition that lost out at this last election as you were mentioning they lost fourteen percent together that. you know it's very high but where the social democrats will be moved to saying can be no debate no discussion about migration you don't think about course sort of want to take a deep breath and we haven't and the social democrats would be decimated in the next election if they were visible enough this past election to be completely
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destroyed in the next election and so just interesting new elections and. one doesn't know the outcome i reckon by going to elections damaged goods in some ways so i think corruption is a minority government give it a try just politics a self-fulfilling prophecy it's also it's going to just going to disappear all the time are terrible give it a try and might be very very interesting so your vote is for the minority government you know what what about fresh elections on a would do so so that prospect i don't think it would change that much i mean if we look at the service right now if it of course there's going to be some movement and the liberals seem to profit from their step but i think it would still pretty much be around same figures that we've seen in the last election and for a. coalition of the liberals and the christian democrats to be realizable they would have to gain some six or seven percentage points and i don't see that
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right now so we'd have pretty much the same situation with two possibilities the grand coalition or another john mica coalition and then i think it will be much more likely that we see another grand coalition because clinton has been so categorical about what he did and this is what he stands for and i don't think he's going to come up with the first the key player of the moment in all of this is we've mentioned him already is germany's federal president for former foreign minister very familiar face many people he's been he's he's had everybody round to his residence here in berlin both you polus he's given them a smack on the legs and send them back out there and so negotiate make it work you know so that could still happen possibly jamaica. i can't. i can't if you look at the agreed on it was quite radical for the four parties agreed on i mean the tone and the coalition talks was actually the christian social union in bavaria they're facing elections next next year there's
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a huge power struggle going on inside the very they're having a special meeting this weekend and they were just so obstructionist you wonder i mean they were they were looking at german politics and political interest and status in the e.u. they were looking at their own provincial interest. though i mean i think it's worth remembering that. the greens are also pretty far apart on a lot of issues and the greens in particular who won a lot of concessions during these talks but the greens were basically in the eighty's born out of opposition to the c.d.u. and to the f.t.p. so they were never going to be easy partners and i think that in the end is really . despite you know the various tactics that might have been at play there i think that really is the basic problem and that hasn't gone away which is why linton has said now that he wouldn't you know entertain going back to that is going to it's interesting i mean there's not the greens and the conservatives they seem such an likely bedfellows but they have they do get along in one of the most important states in germany book. and secondly they're going to say divide it in any case but
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then on the day conservatives moved extremely to the left in these negotiations over asylum policy the greens moved also in sending back asylum seekers to safe countries like we'll continue to i mean there was movement there but the problem with the greens is that they are so it just. ok just to reduce or no for another word on first elections and i think so just like you for all of us to map out how long if that is the avenue we go down how long is it going to take before we get there before there's light at the end of the tunnel and we have a new government well this is a big problem because it would take several. it probably wouldn't happen until april maybe late april sometime around easter is what is being discussed now and in the meantime you would continue to have this limbo with this caretaker government and i think the other factor here is that the german electorate doesn't want new elections and i think they would be very angry if as i said they ended up having to
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go back to the polls in the spring ended up with a very similar result and then you would have to re enter this whole phase of coalition building which would take another couple of months so you would have a government probably until next summer at the earliest and this is where this wonderful long german word politique comes into play sack yeah yeah people being deceived disenchanted disgruntled with the process of politics and it might drive people to the far right exactly it might play into the hands on a of the alternative for germany who would hardly spoken about. the discussion well we don't know yet because it seems like aiming at the electorate that the addressing to and which is sort of a nationalist. electorate and these national liberal voters is what what he's trying to address the owl and he would certainly do so if there were another kemi he would go for it much more than he already did in the campaign that we've seen in the summer so i don't know maybe it would be the other way around and
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some of the f.t.p. voters would go to the f.t. but if that were the case the year ahead of iran is ok so i think really want to go in the stop a skeptic party in government. i know it's right and it is an irish to me so i think you'll think that many macaw and many others in france are very relieved that we don't have a government that contains the f.t.p. so. although they have to be certainly doesn't it doesn't see itself as years ago i mean they they and this is one of the things that lenders point out he felt that he was being personally smirched by the greens during the talks because they suggested that he was years getting certainly the history of the party is not that of a euro skeptic party given you know its support for the euro and other things over judy was running out of time and i would just like to talk about i'm going to call down but not out. i'm going to mecca liz is there is
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a fantastic politician but she's had two major bills now one is the election result of september and now the clubs the coalition talks and we can certainly under meccas no longer saleable but for her politics has come back with a book tell us it is no graciousness in politics and matthew it's interesting that your quote at the top of the show i was very intrigued by germany will remain stable with or without. well i think what you're hinting i mean that you enter this phase now if we do move towards a new elections here with this limbo a lot can happen in this in this period of uncertainty and we've seen challenges to her before from within her party and you know who knows what could happen over the next six months there could be various challenges to her she may decide that she doesn't want to run again after all no no nobody nobody really knows certainly if there is a new election and her party does worse than it did this last time which was already pretty bad compared to the two thousand and thirteen election i think she
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would definitely have to go is the woman sometimes called the leader of the free world the new or the true leader of the free world and she was. not she won't be challenge from within our party now i think because she has to run again in elections she might lose another couple of percentage points it already was the worst result they've ever had so i don't i don't think people are going to let her do that and let her fail more and then maybe challenge her sometime next year and that's what i think but of course the death.


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