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tv   Quadriga - Bavaria Votes Watershed in Germany  Deutsche Welle  October 11, 2018 7:30pm-8:01pm CEST

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the risk of becoming too dependent on private contractors who may not provide the services they promised often used to lights them every time that i was on private sector businesses make more money with everything from recognizance drones to laundry facilities firms are equal treating the foreign forces in france and germany. maturing just real complex starts october twentieth on g.w. . plan a very warm welcome indeed to quadriga and all eyes here in germany or on the big prosperous and influential southern state of but that area where people go to the polls this weekend into the election that could have a major impact at the national level the conservative c.s.u. party has rules but there it without interruption for over sixty years but that
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period of dominance looks to be over the could be two winners on sunday the greens and the populist far right alternative for germany party so what will it all mean for angela merkel and her coalition government here in berlin this week here on quadriga question is bavaria votes watershed in germany and to discuss that question i'm joined by three journalists here in the studio beginning with matthew carney chief europe correspondent of politico who says a poor showing from the sea is you into varia is likely to make the party even more disruptive in length and will raise serious questions about the stability of merkel's toilet. also where this is andrea shea senior correspondent with reuters news agency who believes that the election will be a referendum on chancellor angela merkel's love lust and fractured ruling coalition interesting that the only player and woman can supersede a festering a freelance journalist who. argues that the election in bavaria will be
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a victory for democracy interesting too that comments overcame a few votes either everybody saying it's a regional election it's a state election maybe not too important but it could genuinely be a watershed both of bavaria and at the national level what do you say i think that's both perfectly true obviously there's an impact in bavaria if a party that has ruled alone for nearly all of the last sixty years and has never been in opposition gets hammered and seriously reduced in numbers it will still be in the government so. outwardly i think perhaps not even that much will change in the very i think in some ways the effects will be more dramatic in berlin because all the ruling the ruling coalition of america in berlin is to put the parties that it consists of are said to suffer in the very and suffer badly that's true not just for the c.s.u.
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but also for the social democrats. macca herself will carry some of the blame for the bavarian results and her coalition partners will make sure to try to make her take the maximum of it. and unrest within our own party is growing and you said you believe that the votes will be a victory for democracy what did you mean exactly suppose very positive spin on completely and i'm i will start with that i think on two parts first of all i think it's absurd for democracy to be ruled by the same party for sixty years in that sense moving closer towards a change of government in bavaria is good for democracy and it's also good for the state because parties that are too long and get too crusty. but secondly i think perhaps even more important in. this political climate that we have no i
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think this use you in bavaria is getting punished for being too populist too populist too populist sundra to cross to the c.e.o.'s you've been a cornerstone of german politics for sixty years tell us a little bit more about the policy of the party has you know it had to find itself for many years as not allowing anything to the right of it so you know i remember in the one nine hundred eighty s. going to ring there of a much earlier bavarian regional election and seeing campaign posters that were very anti foreigner at that point in time migrant it's a flavor that d.v. alternative for germany party has adopted and and has succeeded with since two thousand and thirteen so the c.s.u. this the varian conservatives have shifted a bit i think from the perspective of the far right voters they have become
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attracted to this far right party because they feel that the conservatives have left that space open and so they've taken that space. on the other hand you could say that the very end leader the leader of their own party. who's also the interior minister has pursued a course of attacking chancellor merkel over and over again over her policies on migration and that's had some backlash because there are people in bavaria and i know several who vote who would normally vote perhaps a few deer green but have voted deliberately for the c.s.u. to support a magical and her open door migrant policy so they're into is he spent to harsh to so he just it's been a very difficult. period i think for the the bavarian party to sort of find the right course forward. and the victors and midst of all of us are going to be the greens who are doing better than ever before and it will clear the green chile breath you tell us
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a little bit more about the scenes you will drive you to view as need to know about the c.s.u. from your perspective well i think they reflect the problem that a lot of mainstream sort of incumbent centrist parties in europe are facing at the moment and and there it's particularly poignant because they've been at the focal point of this migration crisis as some people call it and you know on the one hand they have this rhetoric is under a set of being tough on refugees and they have this tradition of doing that but in practice i think a lot of people in bavaria look at what has happened with migration and refugee policy over the past couple of years and they say well you know they talk a good game but in practice nothing has really changed in terms of what does the c.s.u. has promised in terms of really you know tightening tightening things and you know for example putting more people on the border they've done that but they're not really border controls of the kind that they will stimulate through there is all sort of small fries a lot of sort of you know potemkin village type of stuff and i think that you know
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people are stupid and they realize that and that's obviously been an opening for the f.t. and on the one hand and obviously on for the greens on the other so you're seeing you know really a fracturing of the landscape so i agree that you know in principle it's good for democracy not to have one party in power here but i think that the larger story in bavaria right now is that you're seeing just how how potent this migration issue remains on politics in this country because this is really what has has triggered this there's no reason that the c.s.u. should be losing and very right now the economy is booming unemployment is below three percent it's one of the richest reasons in europe not just in germany so you know this is why there's this frustration of the leaders you know who are running for the c.s.u. because they don't get it i mean they've done everything right. you know according to their usual playbook and it's and it's not working and i think this is what really has to be worrying people in berlin and that is why also the c.d.u.
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until america's party is so concerned about the very right and you know math there i think that part of this is that. the you know people of pick out of the f.d.a. vote in the support of the f.d.a. has been largely a protest vote not really sure that strew i think you know what you're saying is that people are voting sort of against their interests the c.s.u. is the lead bavaria to this you know incredible wealth it's very. so something else is going on under underneath that level and that is this set of discomfort that germany has with its role as a country of migration as that as an immigrant as a country of immigrants and that is something that is the flavor that you know whether it's the lack of integration of the turks before them the italians greeks who came to work in germany they sort of difficulty in integrating those ethnic germans who came from russia and kazakhstan and now most recently this sense of not
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really of just feeling completely overwhelmed by the arrival of a million muslims mostly muslim migrants from syria and iraq and afghanistan just not knowing how to deal with that and that i think is part of what. germany is struggling with writ large well in a very i think that they feel that you know in particular because they're right on the southern border of germany with austria where in two thousand and fifteen a lot of these refugees most refugees actually came over the very in border so they have this real kind of fear a lot of people down there of the hordes kind of coming up from the south and overrunning the country and this is what they have you know has played on a fairly successful i'm not so sure that i agree with all of that i mean first of all the a fifty in bavaria said to get about twelve thirteen fourteen percent which is nowhere what it is getting in eastern germany where they know migrants and know my guns came through even so i mean just image of hordes coming from to south i
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really don't buy into that i think one aspect which we haven't mentioned so far is . that is you is being punished too for being so difficult in the government been in people did not like say who for the party had an interior minister in berlin to obstruct mechelen every bit and also we have a lot of the variance who are good catholics and the c.s.u. is called christian christian social union it has a lot of members who are good catholics and do not like to see that rhetoric and least against refugees let me pick up on your first point and we'll get some images first of all before we continue the debate let's just talk about the acrimony at national level between c.s.u. c.d.u. and the other coalition of the past that if you will because certainly the story of the past few weeks here in germany has been of that toxic rivalry between the two c.s.u. big beasts party leader and interior minister horse a hole for who's already been mentioned a variant state premier and one of the party leader marcus and that battle has
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still left holds to say hope for enough time to indulge in his other favorite pastime mentioned already as well the ongoing settling of scores with anglo-american let's have a look. sometimes a look can speak a thousand words the whole phone german interior minister and head of the bavarian c.s.u. twice drove the governing coalition in berlin to the brink of collapse and plunged . into disbelief. first it was over the deportation of refugees along the various border with austria then it was over the fate of huns georg masson the controversial head of the domestic intelligence agency. sale for the stubborn dyed in the wool politician from the area where a certain type of man calls the shots. the very instant premier marcus sir is the same type for years the so-called alpha males of the c.s.u. in gauged in grueling power struggles until the top of the whole firm who then went
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to berlin. and at the very end boys isn't even about politics anymore. that's enough politics punt survive more or personalities that we go i think that's a huge amount of personalities involved here i think the hope is a man who is very egocentric and who will bear a grudge until you know the day of the last judgment i cannot see these very much in the twilight of his career it has to be said it doesn't have much time doubts really get on the americans nerves which seems to be his sort of self-imposed mission in life at this point in time he certainly made good use of the last months to lash out at her there's no doubt about that no he's vindictive i think. and also it would mean he dug in on the head of the domestic intelligence agency mohsen. i actually saw him last summer in east germany had one campaign appearance in mecca. and he used that to talk
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about how things were so wonderful with america and although they've had trouble they were actually they had a lot of respect for each other but as soon as they got back into a coalition government started all over again it was really just a campaign i think of the various not so much the feud with miracle that is that is hurting him because this is to a degree what the bavarians expect of their leaders in berlin to not you know toe the party line all the time in medical actually is not very popular in a lot of the very which is why they have deform example has put up posters saying vote c.s.u. and you'll get medical so you know there's a very anti marigold tone in this campaign down there and she hasn't really appeared i think she's made one appearance in during the campaign for the c.s.u. and i think the problem that sable for and the other see is you people have there is that their big selling point has been always that if you vote for the c.s.u.
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you're voting for a party that has a seat at the big table in berlin and it's unique in that respect because if you vote for the greens they're tied to a federal party that s.p.d. the social democrats the same sort of thing but that the c.s.u. is the only party that will you know represent varia in berlin and again through this refugee crisis and his disputes with merkel recently that show not to be true that he has been able to push through a bavarian agenda in berlin and people are are noticing that and are very frustrated with the c.s. use failure over the past couple of years to do what they promised to do and i think that's why we're where we are now and that's also why the greens are doing so well because a lot of people on the other hand who. you know might have voted for the c.s.u. previously more and more liberal types have been offended by all of this very aggressive rhetoric that's come from sable friend and the others recently talk about the very aggressive rhetoric that's who ladies at the table to what extent is
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this about alpha males mentioned in the reports never really accepting a female chancellor never having developed property learns for a female leader in germany. i'm not sure i follow you on this one i think you know america has been in power for thirteen years and that she has been able to kill off every alpha male who thought he could come in and dominate. i mean anybody who's still in power and still somebody in power today knows that she is foetus and that she is ruthless and that she is very skilled and very experienced and i think that's not the way to go about getting rid of her under and i think i agree with bettina but i think a lot of what's happening in bavaria is really that voters don't like hypocrisy and they don't like flip flops and that's happened a lot you know there's been this sort of appeasement of of you know sort of moving
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toward mexico and then moving away and then marcos or who runs the party now in bavaria. and is i'm sorry who is the premier and of area he is he has changed course he's had a very kind of far right kind of rhetoric and then all of a sudden realize that was backfiring in the polls decided to take a different tack and to attack the f.t. and all of that back and forth really makes voters very upset the person who could benefit from all of this as things go really south is. who is then a long time german bavarian politician systemd kind of quiet to spend a little bit in the background and if the if the party gets really upset with both and so i think if i can i could come out and be the bavarian party leader it's an interesting one ok matthew was mentioned it's already been very it certainly has a lot going for it it's among the most prosperous parts of germany so the lowest unemployment the lowest crime rates it leads the way in education it's home to
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knowing blue chip companies it's even recently announced that it has its own space program but it's shakespeare much is said to something rotten in the state of bavaria. you know. the sounds lovely even the rest of the world associates that area with beer october first leader who isn't turned and of course byron munich who pretty much always wins normally but ariel also stands for b.m.w. siemens high tech business it's a natural union leader who isn't and laptops reaching the top by combining tradition with modernity is the on off that is still the position of political leaders across the globe we want to get to where you got everyone's already are not by munich but the free state of bavaria. it certainly has more to offer than just fairytale castles and breathtaking landscapes so why are the variants of all people so dissatisfied with their political leaders. what. do you want to come
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back to that question matthew because our view isn't broad will be fascinated by this it's such a prosperous region of germany and they. might simply cheesed off the people of bavaria with their leaders will still wrong what's the problem that. well you know i think that there's not just one one cause i think we've talked about some of the reasons the asylum issue the refugee issue is is one thing but something that you know people and of area would say and in the c.s.u. is that they've been a victim of their own success in a way because the prosperity down there has created so many jobs and you've seen the population go from just just over the past few years from eleven to thirteen million so they've they've really grown quite a lot but those people have come from other parts of germany mainly from you know the northern regions of germany who don't have a natural affinity for the c.s.u. he didn't grow up with the c.s.u. it's important to know that the c.s.u. operates a real political machine down there and they have very close ties to the catholic
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church and particularly in rural areas you people come up through these these organizations these youth organizations and it's just it's a way of life and you know it's tied to the church it's tied to the to the local in where people meet for their you know weekly beer and this type of thing and so there's a real network there and that will remain and this is one of the think the interesting things that will play out in the coming years if this election really is a disaster for them is are they able to maintain this dominance that they have at the local level because they also control two thirds of the local districts there so you know i think though that this idea of it becoming more diverse is something that they didn't they in the c.s.u. didn't really realize was happening and what that would mean that people from other parts of the country are not in tune with their sort of conservative view of the world i think you can also say that the s.p. davis social democrats have also lost support in the various there and it really is
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i think the kind of phenomenon that we also britain with. the united states with the election of donald trump that voters are not happy with politics as you know with the status quo. with the way that things have always then that what changed they have seen the fire have a lot of voters are doing pretty well in the hall for a right to the latest now if you want right and and the greens are trying very well but those two big you know sort of centrist established parties are not the parties that are in control in berlin and this sort of exactly but i would think the greens the greens we would have much time and out of really want to know why the greens are so successful at this point in time eighteen percent twice as much as last time i think through no merit of their own whatsoever. i think they're just sitting there what waiting for everybody else to make mistakes or disillusioned voters or whatever they just collect what's left of the floor there are
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a lot of people bettina who are suddenly talking about the. a new a sharpshooter in german politics we've seen before the national level we've seen it in budden growth back neighboring varia a conservative green coalition of course we can see that and we are going to see that and perhaps in bavaria too after after after the sunday but that doesn't mean that the greens have come up with any startling new policies over the last twelve months just not having to wait ideas of what to do about all the ills that we see in the world the big thing they are really doing nothing except the other is doing worse than nothing nothing and so they benefit well i think the greens benefit culturally from the fact that the d.s.p. the social democrats have this kind of identity crisis at the moment is the traditional labor party and a lot of you know particularly urban voters who are young professionals they don't really culturally identify with the s.p.d. they tend to be in the very the offspring of c.s.
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you voters so they come from the same sort of you know cultural universe and so it's not a big leap for people to to vote for for the greens down there that said i think that you've you've seen this fracturing of the left as well in germany since the one nine hundred seventy s. where. he used to just have the s.p.d. the s.p.d. then lost it's sort of ecological wing with that was the greens and then it lost its left wing with the link to the left party in germany so you have you know this this this fracturing of the left and now you're seeing that also happening on on the right with with safety and you've got groups like the five alun others and so the question is you know is germany on its way to becoming a country like holland where you have you know twelve thirteen parties you know represented and that could make it in the long term somewhat more difficult to govern as good as that is for democracy this is this period where we've had you know two party coalitions maybe maybe coming to an end fascinating is also found so
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many from each of you we're running out some of what you've got a minute no underwear on where is this going to leave i'm going to go this vote on something is gonna be written there's really no way to not come out of this a little bit bruised because if the conservative party the conservative party is not going to do well in bavaria it's not going to do well in heston the state of hessen has election in two weeks and pressure will mount for angela merkel to accelerate her or her period of succession to move forward the party congress in december certainly some challenges but you know what i'm going to back always surprises people see it as such a scrap and survivor thing she always comes up trumps and somehow that's you know where does the west is going to leave i completely agree i think mca has caused a lot of this by the vacuum that she left over the past two years we've seen extremely difficult leadership from which has left
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a lot of room for other people to do this and i doubt that. i think if she should she manage to reinvent herself and come up with a story for germany that makes sense to people that explains to them how she sees the country. future including the million refugees that are living here then she may pull it off if she doesn't i think she'd better start thinking about her succession she's looking for a legacy already could the legacy be coming out of this election that angle americal poses onto her successes to germany to a party the prospect of a conservative green coalition at the national level a new blueprint for germany i don't really see that happening to be honest i mean i think that she would like to manage her succession but you know we all know what they say about the the best laid plans i think that you know the she's going to lose these elections in the coming months and there could be a dynamic there where she's just going to not be able to steer the party and
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germany in the direction she would like. and she will be she will be pressured to to to to step down at some point possibly before the you know the the end of the term or likely before the end of the term i don't think that these ideas that she's going to be able to nominate somebody as her chosen successor are going to going to turn out i think more likely than a green conservative coalition would be a conservative backlash within the c.d.u. which says for kind of national distance disposition anyway ok thank you all three for joining me here today including cricket a real pleasure and some great ideas and we've given you a whole plenty of food for thought a watershed for germany for various votes that's been our question here according to today if you've enjoyed the show come back next week until impact by country.
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