tv First Business KICU July 5, 2013 4:00am-4:31am PDT
[first business them you're watching first business: financial news, analysis, and today's investment ideas. good morning. i'm angela miles. just ahead on first business, ready for take off - british airways launches two high- profile jets, giving a lift to boeing and airbus. in today's cover story, an update on the nation's deficit. plus, the ups and downs of owning theme park stocks. and, how long is too long to sit through movie trailers before the big show? we are starting our morning with trader tim biggam, who is our star trader of the day. he is on the trading floor at cboe. good morning, and i'm wondering what summer trends you suspect
will be happening in this market, especially with job growth and what's been going on with the economy. - absolutely. it's almost, i think, kind of a summer non- trend here. i think it will be somewhat range-bound over the summer, "big range, no change," i call it. that 1650 level to the upside in the s&p i think will kind of be a ceiling, tough to get through there. conversely, that 1550 level that we hit a couple weeks ago to the downside, there probably will be some good support around there, buffered by the fed coming in and still doing their monthly p.o.m.o. to support stocks. but valuations getting a little bit stretched if we head higher, so i look for kind of a trader's market, where you want to be selling rallies, buying dips. - what are you seeing as far as hedging, and is there a real need to hedge in this current market? - it's always good to hedge, and a good way to hedge indirectly is when we do have a rally, take a little bit off the table, take some profits on your outperforming names, put that money to work in the underperforming names. that's a proven strategy over time.
another way is simply go out and buy some puts for protection. the vix, although it's off the lows, still around that 16 level, not overly expensive. - what would you buy? - apple is certainly one, yielding about 3% around these levels here. if you're not long gold, i think adding some gold stocks names here - abx and newmont. that's kind of the trade over the summer, is look for relatively beaten-down stocks to add to the list on dips and maybe some of the utilities that have come down sharply, given that move up we've seen in rates. i think rates are kind of just about right here, so i think those will languish as well, and i think collecting that 3.5 to 4% yield on some of those names probably will not be too bad a play over the next three to six months. - thank you for all the info, tim. - you bet, thank you angie. another sign that the economic recovery may be a little more solid than before, the congressional budget office says this year's budget deficit is down 32%. our cover story explores the significance of this fiscal snapshot. the deficit - how much more the
government spends in a year than it takes in - is shrinking. why? mostly because more of us are working - and paying more in taxes than we did last year. "i think it's a sign of the economic recovery taking hold, and it's the sort of thing that we hope to see in a recovery." for the first seven months of the government's fiscal year - october through april - tax collections rose by $220 billion, up 16% from a year ago - a lot of it payroll taxes that, combined with individual taxes, accounted for $184 billion of that amount, although the fiscal cliff deal also raised taxes on top earners. "and as people get jobs, they don't need housing assistance. so, some of this is structural, regardless of the government." with more people working, the biggest drop came in the payment of unemployment benefits - down 25%. also, defense spending fell 5.3% and other non-defense spending was down 8.6%, such as payments to mortgage finance agencies such
as fannie mae - itself about to turn a financial corner. "what fannie mae is about to do is reverse tax credits that that they essentially had wiped out after they were no longer profitable. these tax credits they can put back onto their balance sheet when they believe that they're profitable, and they'll remit that to the treasury. that's expected to be about $53 billion." though it's a long way from a surplus, this year's deficit is about a third less than it was last year at this time. it also pushes back the deadline for raising the debt ceiling into october. foreign auto-makers are making a greater effort to produce cars made in the u.s.a. as the american auto market continues to rebound, toyota and volkswagon are among foreign auto-makers ramping up business here. ford's top-selling f-150 is the most american-made vehicle on the market. but the camry, built in kentucky and indiana, is a close second. "the reality is, for all these foreign auto-makers, they want to build their cars where they
sell their cars, and that also means they need to get suppliers to build parts so that they are not paying a ton of money in transportation and raising their costs. consumers remain very price-conscious, so to keep prices down, they want to have their plants in a place where they can build it where they sell it." a survey by cars.com reveals nearly half of car buyers are more likely to buy foreign brands that are manufactured in the u.s. the buzz is building around the specialty coffee industry, which includes coffee roasters, coffee houses, and the supply chain that gets it all there. for one thing, it's growing - and according to the specialty coffee association of america, comprises nearly half of all coffee sales in the u.s. the u.s. coffee market is an estimated $30- to $32-billion- a-year industry. cups filled with specialty brews make up 37% of the volume of coffee sold and nearly half of all the money that's made. that's why coffee fests, a series of trade shows in cities across america, have so many buzzing about building their own coffee business. "i don't know if you can make a
living necessarily as a barista, but you can definitely make a living in coffee. as a barista, it's a great way to kind of get into coffee, and from there, there's management positions, there's training positions now. every company has just a trainer who focuses on that quality-control aspect. so maybe not quite as just a barista, but you can definitely move up." at this coffee fest in chicago, vendors enticed with fountains and makers of frozen-blended drinks that boost sales. "this represents about a third of any coffee house's bottom- line." there are awards for the best coffee houses in america, such as klatch coffee in southern california. "it recognizes not just the quality of the coffee that we put out, but how we treat our customers, the experience that we give for them - the thing that makes your customers say, 'wow, i'm going to go back there!' and not only that, but i'm going to tell my friends about that place. that's what america's best coffee house really represents, is really what the staff does on a daily basis." and there are artistic competitions. who knew how well a barista draws designs on foam could convey a depth of knowledge poured into each cup?
"it's a great indicator that you have people who are doing the proper techniques and creating the best coffee that they can." but a blight is brewing in central america: coffee-leaf rust - a fungus that's attacking plants. "that's an issue right now, because it could wipe out entire crops of coffee, and that will drive the cost of coffee up, dramatically." the international coffee organization says coffee leaf rust in central america is the worst in 36 years since it first appeared in the region. however, world coffee exports are above last year's levels. coffee fests are scheduled for later this year in seattle and new york. this season's orange crop could be in jeporady. the ag deparment is lowering its estimate of orange production by 10% on concerns of a crop disease farmers don't seem to be able to get under control. jackie keenan reports from florida. when you think of florida, bright, juicy oranges may be one of the first images that come to mind. but not oranges that look like this. or like this.
citrus farmers are battling a bacterial disease called greening. carried by the asian citrus psyllid, the disease cripples the tree and starves the fruit of nutrients, causing them to drop before ripening. "this tree has got quite an infection from the green disease." victor story has been working in groves since he was 8 years old. he now manages more than 6,000 acres. he's battled freezes and hurricanes, but greening is the worst threat to his oranges he's seen in his lifetime. "it is troubling because we do raise the tastiest, best-juiced fruit in the world." this tasty fruit is worth more than $9 billion to the state of florida, which is the second largest producer of oranges in the world. since 2006, greening is to blame for $3.6 billion in lost revenue and 6600 job losses, according to a study from the university of florida.
the most troubling sight for a citrus grower is a tree that looks like this, where the fruit has all fallen to the ground. but also troubling is the fact that greening has no cure yet. "we'd feel a lot safer if we knew what the resolution was." shannon shepp is the deputy commissioner of the florida department of agriculture. she says research is intensifying on trying to find a cure. but some growers are calling it quits, as the cost of keeping trees healthy is just too high. "there are two sides to that challenge. the first one is fruit loss is absolutely a killer on your economic side, for the growers. the second is that trying to prevent the disease, or caretaking in the groves, those costs are also an economic killer." "our production cost from before psyllids and greening went from about $600 an acre to about $2200 an acre." story estimates 10% of his crops will need to be replaced. but he's optimistic florida's sweet fruit will survive. "i would just like to say that we've seen a lot of challenges over the years, and we've met them, and we're still viable."
reporting from central florida for first business, i'm jackie keenan. coca-cola is not going to let greening stand in the way of its oj business. it is spending $2 billion to plant 25,000 new acres of orange groves for its simply juice brands. g up in the chicken business. chicken production is up as fast food restaurants promote items such as chicken sandwiches. plus, beef has moved lower on the pecking order as shoppers buy chicken, which is less expensive. this spring, wholesale prices on chicken breasts surpassed $2 per pound. that's the first time that has happened since 2004. farmers are also paying less for feed costs as corn and soybean prices head lower. british airways is expanding its fleet. the airline is launching flights of the airbus a380 and boeing 787. according to australian business travel magazine, both jets will operate out of london heathrow. the dreamler and a350 are both considered big-ticket, high-
profile aircrafts. theater owners are worried people will stop buying movie tickets because of the length of movie trailers. a series of trailers including commericals can run up to 20 minutes before the actual movie starts. a report on npr reveals theater owners are hearing complaints from audiences, and some are even calling for change. their reasoning is the teasy trailers that are the film studios' best form of marketing tool take too long and give away too much of the storyline. film studios are reportedly concerned threater owners might refuse to play trailers running longer than 2 minutes. still to come, small business owners that are seeing profit growth from yardwork. but first, is twitter the new linkedin for job hunters? bill moller steps in next.
social media - first used for silly social interactions, it continues to find a footing in the professional world. take twitter: originally a place to post all those banalities of daily life - "just enjoyed a bowl of coco puffs" - it's now being used by companies to hire. tom gimbel runs the staffing company the lasalle network, on inc magazine's list of the fastest-growing private companies. good for you. - good to see you. - tell me how this works. - i think twitter is an information resource. so people want to be on there to gather information that they can use in their job search, both about companies and about hiring. - all right, so it's people looking for work that use it. how about companies? is it easy to find employees? - absolutely. they want to be able to broadcast. companies are usually going to have more followers than individuals, aside from celebrities, athletes, and all those people. so companies want to be able to
post on their twitter feeds what they are hiring for, what types of people they are looking for, and the key is to get retweeted. and once you get retweeted, then you can get into the virality of the whole internet, and yadda yadda yadda... - so if people are looking at a particular sector for work, and companies are posting things there, it is sort of a community, and as it is retweeted, it is probably going to be retweeted throughout that same community. - and beyond that community into other areas. number one, that we can't forget, is that most people want to help other people. so when they see something about a job, and they have friends in that space, they are going to retweet it. and once it gets retweeted, then the act of being able to find something really becomes a smaller scale type of endeavor. - we always think that it's the younger person, the 20- somethings, that are heavy twitter users, social media users. does that mean older folks typically are not going to be in this pipeline, because they are not on twitter? - no. actually, i think it's a little bit different. i think more older folks are on twitter. having just turned 40, i am a little bit nervous about your reference about old and young. - i think the gray hair coming in. - i wish i had any hair. but i think the fact is that younger people are using twitter almost
more for communication amongst their peer group, where the older folks are using it more as a research and information gatherer. so it is actually going to be more beneficial for the older population. - now linkedin is the self- appointed business site. - absolutely. - now is this cutting into linkedin's turf? - i don't think so at all. you can actually post on twitter and have those posts show up on your linkedin account, and on facebook. so, really social media is taking a lot of the different sites and making them universal, where you can post one place and have it show up on others. so i don't think it is really a conflict. - tom gimbel, thanks so much. - good to be here, bill. thank you, bill. coming up next, the entrepreuners taking a shot at "growing business." and later on, theme parks are more than a wild ride. certain stocks could bring exciting profits - coming up next!
the lawn and garden business is growing, thanks in large part to the rebound in the housing market. today, a sneak peak into what your lawn and garden center may be stocking to bring in more green. among sprinklers that look like flowers, insect zappers that use light and carbon dioxide to attract their prey, and a handy outdoor shelf, the national lawn and garden show is where vendors get ten minutes to make their pitch to buyers from 90% of gardening catalogs and retailers. "it's a big deal, because they can physically get face-time with a buyer, which is very difficult to get at traditional trade shows."
there's jackson madnick, pushing his low-maintenance grass on a cart - stays green all year on 1/4 the water. "we grew close to 10,000 samples of this, varying proportions of it ever so slightly, until we found one batch that interacted, that slowed down the growth, and forced it to grow 12- to 14- inch roots." - so what do you call this miracle grass? "it's called pearl's premium. i named it after my mother, who was an environmentalist during the 50s, and my 12-year-old daughter." we saw jimmy elder, an entrepreneur from dallas, whose pop-up yard art called garden gawkers comes in variations for every holiday. "right now, we're investing, but we're investing wisely. we expect to turn a profit in the next 12 to 24 months." and while michelle miller, a buyer, pondered a rainbow assortment of nozzles, we realized this is the buyer- vendor equivalent of speed- dating. "they match you up with vendors that make sense and are relevant for you, and you have very short conversations - ten minutes." "it is a lot like speed-dating. it's completely different that a normal trade show."
business is better since the recession. the rebound in housing helps lawn and garden sales, along with the creation of new products powered by the sun. "anything to do with solar has gotten to be very big. almost all the products that are normall powered by batteries or powered by other sources are being converted to solar." in march and april, cold weather across the nation dampened lawn and garden business by 10 to 15%. a lot of those businesses are working to make up for that right now. deals made at the national lawn and garden show range from $5,000 to more than $1 million each. thank you for that report, chuck. owners of theme parks are bracing for growth this summer. in the u.s., amusement parks are still recovering from the rough ride during the recession. however, in china, a new disney park is scheduled to open in shanghai december 2015. according to john gerner of liesure business advisors, china is the hottest area for growth. "definitely. i think when we look at our industry, we don't realize, as far as theme parks, that the u.s. is a pretty mature market. we really boomed
back in the '70s. that's when most of the theme parks in this country got built, and it's slowed down since then. but in other parts of the world, they are just picking up. china, right now, is growing at a faster pace than we did during our boom years, and right now they are the hottest part of the planet as far as theme parks, especially with the new disney park opening up in china." - i'm glad you mentioned disney. prices, ticket prices at disney are on the way up. is this because of demand, or just a way to pay for some of these new attractions, john? "i think it's mainly due to demand. there's always limits to what people will pay, but when you have a product like theme park admission, you have something that's really unique. there's nothing that can replace the visceral thrill of roller coasters and other kinds of thrill-rides, or the really unique experiences that disney offers, and they know that." - sounds like fun, john. thanks for being on the show today. "i'm happy to." just ahead, a look at theme park stocks that could add some summer sizzle to your portfolio. chart talk is next.
in chart talk this morning, scott bauer of trading advantage steps in. scott, good morning. - good morning to you, angie. - we wanted to take a look at theme-park stocks with you. are these stocks that are going to take investors for a ride? let's start with disney. - everybody knows the core holdings of disney, but the theme parks are really a major source of their income. there's really two trains of thought here: with ticket prices rising quite a bit, is that going to hold people back? well, their attendance has actually been increasing quite a bit - in fact, it's up about 10% over the last couple years, but in that same period of time, their margins are actually down 15%. what concerns me a little bit about disney is that 25% of the operating profit from the theme parks comes from overseas, and we all know what's going on overseas right now. disney has a big coming out party, a big
expansion with their disneyland in shanghai coming up soon, so that's something to be careful about. - would you buy this stock at current levels? - yes. - okay. what about six flags? - six flags i absolutely love. ever since this stock came out of bankruptcy, it has just been on this nice grind forward. 39% year-over-year their attendance is up. we're coming into the prime part of the season. their margins are so much healthier now, because they have so much less debt. this is a stock with some great potential. they are the largest attraction- operating company in the world. they have 18 different parks, and everything is looking really rosy for them. - thank you. scott bauer of trading advantage. that's it for now. as always, feel free to follow us on facebook and twitter, or send us an email. we look forward to hearing from you. from all of us at first business, thank you for watching! [first business theme
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