tv Nightly Business Report PBS October 7, 2011 4:30pm-5:00pm PDT
enough. that's how economists are describing the number of jobs created in september. >> the combination of 103,000 overall gains in payrolls, with upward revisions to past months, the rise in the work week, it does show that economy is continuing to grow here. >> tom: but with so many americans still looking for work, what can the president's jobs bill really do to help out- of-work americans? we ask his top economic adviser. it's "nightly business report" for friday, october 7. this is "nightly business report" with susie gharib and tom hudson. "nightly business report" is made possible by: this program is made possible by contributions to your pbs station from viewers like you. thank you.
captioning sponsored by wpbt >> susie: good evening everyone. the u.s. job market is perking up: american businesses added more than 100,000 jobs in september. tom, that was much better than feared given all the talk about recession. >> tom: but susie, it's still going to take more than that to power up the stalled u.s. economy. the labor department said payrolls grew by 103,000 and the unemployment rate is still stuck at 9.1%. it turns out this summer may not have been quite so bad for jobs are originally thought. the government now says 57,000 jobs were created in august. zero was reported previously. >> susie: as good as all that sounds. some experts say it's not enough to keep the u.s. out of recession. suzanne pratt reports.
>> reporter: 103,000 new jobs in one month is an okay number. but, it falls way short for the millions of unemployed. sure several industries hired people in september, including retail, construction and health care. the problem is the economy needs to add more like a quarter million new jobs a month for many months, before the unemployment rate can fall sharply. economist bruce kasman says there's little to celebrate in the latest jobs data. >> the basic problem that we have a weak labor market. that we're generating some jobs but not enough. that there are risk here with labor income not growing that rapidly, that all remains in this report even though the number was somewhat stronger than expected. >> reporter: in cities and towns across the u.s., what unemployed americans want to know is if their job prospects will get better or worse this fall. that depends on whether the economy is able to avoid another recession. business cycle expert lakshman
achuthan says we're tipping into a recession. and, those september jobs don't alter his forecast at all. >> part and parcel of a recession is negative jobs growth, and a rising unemployment rate. so, we should expect if we're right with our recession forecast that we'll see those things in the coming months, and it's going to be noticeable. >> others, however, expect the latest labor news to ease recession fears, something that's been a dark cloud on wall street for weeks. >> reporter: still, they don't believe the job market will brighten much this year. >> they point out the so-called underemployment rate rose to 16.5% last month. that big number includes regular unemployed plus those working part-time but who want full- time, plus those who have stopped looking. >> there's a very still difficult time for people out of the labor force either those who are unemployed or trying to come in terms of finding jobs. i don't think that picture is going to change in an economy
that's unlikely to generate too much demand growth. >> reporter: for those americans that have jobs, experts say they're probably likely to keep them. but, that's little comfort for the 13 million people still looking for work. suzanne pratt, "nightly business" report, new york. >> tom: that's also little comfort for president obama. his top economic advisor told our washington bureau chief darren gersh that lawmakers need to pass his jobs bill to put millions of americans back to work. >> gene, first of all, i want to thank you for your time. so let's start out, some economists on wall street are relieved by the number today. should we be relieved or are we just bumping along the bottom? >> it's always good news when job growth numbers are better than projected. but nobody should be satisfied with this level of job growth. not when you have 9.1% unemployment. not when our economy is still fighting its way back from the worst recession
since the great depression. this is why the president's made his top priority now the passage of the american jobs act. as you've seen, independent forecasters like moodies, like-- economic advisors have projected that if this plan passes it will have a significant impact on strengthening growth, up to 2% more. and it would create between 1.3 million and 1.9 million more jobs. and i think it is a fair question and challenge to anyone who does not support the american jobs act to say where is your plan that these type of top independent forecasters would say, would have this type of impact in the next 12 months on job creation and growth. >> so an employer listening to this at home, hearing you talk, hearing the division on capitol hill, why should that employer think that they're going to get relief at the end of the year? >> i think what every employer should be asking is for congress to act. i think they should be
saying we understand that not everything is under the control of policymakers in washington. that they couldn't have prevented the higher gas prices from the arab spring, or the supply disruptions from the japanese tsunami. and that we probably have limited ability to influence what happens in europe. but that we can make sure that instead of having the type of debacle on the debt limit that we did, that we can be doing long-term things to get our debt down an don't impede this recovery and most importantly, that we can take action right now that will give them more customers, put more spending in the economy, give them more optimism and reason to fire. >> so is this legislation going to have to move to the supercommittee because when i talk to people around town the expectations for the supercommittee are not very high. >> the president put forward the american jobs act as a stand alone measure. and he's-- and he as well as the senate democratic leadership have paid for it. so that there is no excuse
to wait. there is no reason we could not pass this right now. >> the president talks about his jobs package as insurance against a double dip recession what are the odds it will go into another recession, one in three, 50/50. >> i think it's no secret the top independent forecasters don't think it is the most likely outcome but see it as a serious risk so the question for those of us in washington d.c. and power positions is why in the world we would take any risk. >> if you thought there was a 25% or 30% chance your house would burn down, how much would you pay for insurance. quite a significant amount. >> gene sperling, director of the national economic council, thank you for your time. >> thank you. >> from the white house tonight >> tom: the lackluster labor report and fresh debt worries for europe combined to take the wind out of wall street's sails today. moody's put belgium open review for downgrade, while fitch cut its ratings on government i.o.u.'s from italy and spain and put portugal on watch for downgrade.
the dow fell 20 points, the nasdaq lost 27 and the s&p 500 was down 9.5. trading volume ended the week lighter with 1.3 million shares moving on the big board and 2.1 on the nasdaq. but for the week, the dow traded higher in three sessions for an overall net gain of almost 2%. the nasdaq also gaining ground on the week up over 2.5%. and the s&p 500 echoing that weekly performance up over 2%. >> susie: for the third straight year, the federal government's annual deficit was more than $1 trillion dollars. the congressional budget office says fiscal year 2011 ended with an estimated deficit of $1.3 trillion. that's more than 8.5% of the overall u.s. economy. the deficit is the annual gap >> tom: still ahead, we meet one of those americans finding work recently under the golden
arches. and our market monitor still thinks gold is a shining investment. he's mark leibovit of the vrgoldletter.com. >> well, come, not too many shining investments on wall street today, it was a pretty choppy day, to the big triple-digit gains or losses but it was choppy and investors still playing it pretty cautious going into the holiday weekend. >> cautious and choppy, trying to digest not only economic data on jobs today but figuring out what that portends, of course, into the holiday season here. let's go ahead and roll and look at tonight's market focus. the major stock indices snapped a three session rally on the heels of the jobs data and debt downgrades in europe. it was a choppy session. the dow industrials began the day in positive territory, unlike lunchtime when it fell into the red.
theme, chocolove is priced to be an affordable luxury and this year, that luxury will add up to $14.5 million in sales. timothy moley developed the business over several years, then in 2008 took a big step to expand, with an s.b.a. loan. >> i proceeded to go into debt $2 million to make an investment in the future the future of the
people who work here, the future of the local economy the people who came to rebuild this building and the future of various businesses that we buy from in the local area. moley pays 100% of health costs for his staff of 20-- one part of his commitment to maintaining a happy workplace and ultimately a happy customer base. investing in people, and the new facility, helped drive a 52% jump in sales in 2010, and chocolove is on track for a 31% jump this year. >> i think it's a failing point for a lot of businesses right now, is the unwillingness to invest in the future. >> reporter: small businesses like smashburger and chocolove have made colorado one of the top five states for start-up businesses, according to the kauffman foundation. cynthia hessin, "nightly business report," boulder, colorado. >> tom: here's what we're watching for next week: robert stovall is back as our friday market monitor guest. he's managing director and strategist at wood asset management.
tuesday, alcoa kicks off third quarter earnings season. c.e.o. klaus kleinfeld joins us to discuss the results. later in the week, we'll see results from google, j.p. morgan chase and pepsi. >> susie: big news in the corner office at the house of mouse and its all about planning for the future. robert iger will add chairman to his title in march and step down as disney c.e.o. in 2015. during his six-year run as c.e.o. he increased disney's value by a third. he's also credited with reinvigorating the company, highlighted by the acquisition of pixar animation and marvel entertainment. >> tom: another big american company general motors is putting the brakes on plans to add a second shift at the factory making its chevy volt electric cars. g.m. will make one shift more efficient so it can produce the same number of cars as two shifts. fewer than 4,000 volt's have been sold far less than g.m. sales 2011 target of 10,000. its main competition-- the
last spring from tonight's market monitor. he's mark lebovit. the chief market strategist at vrgoldletterdotcom. congratulations, the number one u.s. gold timer, so congratulations on that horn. >> thank you, tom. glad to be back. >> tom: so mark, is the summer swoon over that you forecasted last spring? >> well, we're waiting for technical confirmation, sell may go away, we talked about that in april. we had some signs of a bottom here but i'm not getting the upside volume that i really need. an that's our problem here. i think you can get a tradable rally as we saw after the august low and we saw it again last week. my feeling is we're going to chop around a little bit and if will take more evidence before i can come out and say okay, this is it. you know, traditionally you get a low this time of the year. you get an election next year, an accomodative fed, the reason you would expect a rally sometime next year but i will wait until i get that technical buy signal.
we've got our finger on the button so to speak but i'm really officially neutral here watching the overall market. >> tom: so wait and see when it comes to the stock market but between stocks and metals, specifically gold. you favor gold, why ishat? >> oh, it is a long history with me for 150 or-- 10 or so years. basically it has to do with the currency. the devaluation of currencies. the currency issue where we are printing money like bandits. the u.s. government and entire central banks of the world are guilty of this. and i think ultimately gold is a replacement for currencies that will just deteriorate in value over time. we should be on the gold standard but we are not, we went off in '71, when nixon took us you have and all the inflation problems came after that. that is whyed realation has come. that is why it is moving up over these years, investors, banks are not trusting the currencies. one day investors will come in and even the u.s. dollar, they will be holding bonds and find out the u.s. dollar
is devalued and their dollar is not worth what they think. >> tom: let's look at gold. adjusted for inflation, back to the 1980s when it was about $2500 an ounce, what is your price forecast for it over say the next 12 to 48 months. >> well,ive's been talking about 3,000 for about six, seven, eight years on this broadcast. and i have revised that hig high-- higher, 3600 minimum, 5,000 plus is a possibility here. so i'm-- there are a lot of ways of calculating inflation adjusted using the most conservative, should be 23, 2400, just to equate to where it was back in 1980. silver had a run up to the $50 leff that we saw back in 80. and silver could be as i mentioned well over 100 or 150 in that type of environment. again you're talking next couple three years also, as i mentioned before in this 20 year upcycle, started in 2,000. this could be like 2008 where it was choppy for a
while and you get a direction for a couple months. we had a nice top in the next month. >> tom: let's look tow chopiness at a longer-term chart again for gold, seeing here a 40 week moving average and it has been bouncing right along there for the better part of five or six years, so dow buy at what price, here at -- >> you buy it and if it drops a little more you keep adding to it. it is a bargain basement sale, we were 19, 22, what is our risk, it pulls back to 1400. but if you are targeting it to where i am, 3,000 to 5,000, it's irrelevant. also a kindergarten child could look at that chart and tell you what an uptrend looks like. that is an uptrend if i ever saw one. i don't even know what the question is. we are in a superbull market, use weakness to buy it. i'm wearing my gold tie today jut for the show. >> tom: with a said jacket in arizona we might add. you like the iau, gold, trust, etf up about 9%.
the silver etf down 33%. dow still like both metals? >> absolutely. you know, the it is up by 25% after we recommended it, silver had that continued move. again, they are just moving in tandem with this current correction. it is temporary. it may last a month or two, buy both on weakness, absolutely. >> tom: you own both metals. how about the etfs. >> yes, i own, trade, i am in these all the time. my favorite. >> tom: mark lebovit decked out in gold for good reason, with vr gold letter.com. >> susie: last april, mcdonald's hung out a help wanted sign looking for 50,000 new workers nationwide. the fast food giant got an avalanche of applicants, including single mother katrina aguirre. the laid off telecommunications sales rep landed a restaurant job one day after applying. in tonight's you're hired, aguirre says her new job is already opening new doors. >> hi, how are you today. welcome to mcdonald's.
my name is katrina aguirre and i work for mcdonalds. my position at this time is front counter and i'm a crew member. i was unemployed for two years and i was in the position of looking for employment. i had part time jobs. i was doing waitressing for cash, money, for tips. most of the time i wasn't working. i saw one day on the news at 6:00 that they were having this big national hire day for mcdonald's and i decided to come on in and apply and the next day i got an interview and i got the position. i was really surprised because i knew there was going to be a lot of people out there applying. i love what i do. i love interacting with customers with the people. right now, i'm a crew member, but i have been looked at to be a manager. so, the doors for the opportunity have opened because my managers have faith in me. they believe in me.
and actually i'll be starting my management classes and i'm going to move on from there. the advice i have is just keep trying. right now, i'm really happy that i'm stable. mcdonald's is a great place and they've been around for 50 years and i know i'm going to have stability here. here you go. here's your shake and two double cheeseburgers. thank you. have a nice day today. >> tom: that's "nightly business report" for friday, october 7. i'm tom hudson. goodnight, everyone and have a great weekend. you, too, susie. >> susie: goodnight, everyone. we hope to see all of you again next week. "nightly business report" is made possible by: