i'm taylor riggs. this is bloomberg. prancing? -- prancing -- francine? francine: the imf has cut its forecast for the most in two years. -- for the first time in two years. it says the economy will expand 3.7%. meanwhile, bond investors are bracing for a flood of treasury options over three days. $230 billion of government that is on offer. this has morgan stanley throws in the towel on one of the highest profile predictions for 2018, the treasury curve from the two to 30 year would flatten completely. what is next for the trade war and what does it mean for global growth? joining us for the hour, eric nielsen. thank you for coming in. you worry about the new imf projections? >> know, if anything, they are too timid for next year. 3.25 global growth compared to 3.9 is not an important difference. underestimatethey the tension in trade next year and what i think is going to be the end of the cycle for america starting next year. those numbers, not a worry. francine: how difficult is it to measure the impact of trade? eri

here's taylor riggs. teamr: donald trump's pushed back that they laid out ground rules for the probe into brett kavanaugh. they ordered the investigation on the sexual assault allegations on the supreme court nominee following a request by senate republicans. the party had hoped to power through the chamber and onto the natures -- nation's top court. >> the white house is not getting involved in the fbi investigation and that way. the president very much respects the independence of the fbi and feels they should be looking at anything they think is credible within this limited scope. taylor: theresa may is facing the battle of her political life. they try to undermine her leadership, including foreign secretary boris johnson. he has described her brexit strategy as the ranged, but she and her team have renewed calls to support the so-called checkers plan. >> at the heart of the check is plan is a free trade deal and frictionless trade. tradek it's frictionless that ensures we maintain our guarantees with

i'm taylor riggs. this is bloomberg. francine? francine: thank you so much, taylor. chinese stocks plunged as markets resumed trading, their worst performance since the week long october holiday in 2008. tech companies were the worst performers. china banks cut the cash lenders they must hold. policymakers seek to shore up the faltering domestic economy amid a worsening trade war. joining us is enda curran. this seems to be pretty significant and the market is reacting. it's beingine, described as a defensive move on the central bank and authorities. there has been signs the economy is slowing. some of that is for domestic reasons. policymakers have been trying to broadly. if we can get a handle of the level of debt in the economy, that's when you get a grip of credit flowing. at the same time, we have a trade war with the u.s. showing signs of hitting the economy. we can see that in the indexes for export orders on the pmi readings. oil indications are that there's pressure on the chinese economy. they make this step they have, encourages banks to lend more. we're n

here is taylor riggs. taylor: u.s. defense secretary james mattis is downplaying tensions with beijing. he says the u.s. is not out to contain china. he said there would be times when they would step on each other's toes. canceled high-level security talks that were scheduled with mathis this month. -- mattis this month. tax cuts and spending increases boosted the deficit under president trump to $779 billion. spending rose more than 3% while revenue was up just 0.4%. wages in the u k are growing at their fastest pace in almost a decade. average earnings rose almost 3% in the three months ending in august. unemployment held at a 43 year low at 4%. in brazil, far right presidential candidate gerald a largeo has built up lead against his leftist opponent. 51-40 leadt up against his opponent. news 24 hours a day, on air and @tictoc on twitter, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. i am taylor riggs. this is bloomberg. francine: thank you so much. the brexit clock is ticking. europe

here is taylor riggs. islor: president trump clearing the deck for what could be a protracted trade fight with china. this week he signed a last-minute trade deal with mexico and canada. at a news conference announcing the revised nafta, president trump said it is too early to talk with china because beijing is not ready yet. the head of the european commission says italy could face a greek style crisis. jean-claude juncker spoke. the italian prime minister is trying to reconcile expensive campaign promises with euro area rules on deficits. indicated the budget may not meet their rules. investors are grappling with doubts that opec can replace oil exports from iran that has accrued hovering at a four-year high. rallied 14% since august. opec and its allies have shown little enthusiasm for boosting output. international monetary fund is ready to cut its forecast for global growth. managing director christine lagarde warns that trade fights and tighter credit are darkening the outlook. she spoke in washingto

here is taylor riggs. taylor: the nobel peace prize has gone to activist for their work against sexual violence. crimesthe victim of war and another is a gynecologist from the democratic republican of condo. -- democratic republic of congo. --y are being honored to honored for their work for trying to end the use of sexual violence as a weapon in war. the senate is preparing for a test vote on supreme court nominee brett kavanaugh amid two republican holdouts. jeff flake and susan collins say an fbi investigation claims appear to be thorough. flake says it does not back up allegations. kavanaugh says he may have been too emotional at last week's senate hearing. the pound is rallying today on reports that they brexit agreement may be near. reuters cites sources saying a divorce deal is close. the u.k.'s international trade secretary said he would accept an imperfect brexit deal and try to fix it later. unilever has abandoned plans to leave the u.k. and consolidate its headquarters in the netherlands. the pl

there is taylor riggs. plans toresident trump send 5200 troops to the southern border of mexico by the end of the week, escalating his response to a caravan heading toward the u.s.. the move just days before the midterm alexis -- elections comes as they consider additional legislation to block them. it has been made in front issue in weeks. u.k. chancellor premises early tax-cuts. that is with uncertainty around brexit. the budget statement promises another 500 million pounds in case the u.k. these the eu with no deal. a new digital tax on tex companies like facebook was among the cash regime -- cash raising measures. promisedime minister four weeks ago and she said austerity will end and yesterday it did not end. we have seen additional money in terms of health service, but the foundation is no are near enough . taylor: the indonesian airliner crash hit the sea at hundreds of miles an hour. inplunged from 4800 feet just 21 seconds. that is according to data compiled by flight radar. it was caring 189 peopl

tom: here is taylor riggs. taylor: president trump is saying the leeversd saudi arabia are being called guilty instead of innocent. the president said he wants to find out what happened first. still he said it would be bad if the saudi king and crown crins knew what happened to jamal khashoggi. british prime minister theresa may's problems at home and abroad when it comes to brexit. she has been told her latest proposals would be rejected by apartment. european leaders made plans to keep open after brexit doesn't have enough support. the federal reserve may give a hint today about how hay interest rates may be raised before taking a breather. in the last few weeks fed officials made it clear they are rate table with garagal in-- grad wall rate increases. resident trump said guatemala, el salvador would lose american aid if they allowed pem to enter their countries illegally. global news 24 hours a day on tictoc, in more than 120 countries. i'm taylor riggs. this is bloomberg. tom, francine? francine: thank you

here is taylor riggs. tom: starting in china, economic growth slowed more than expected in the third quarter. gdp rose 6.5% from year ago. the government of knowledge what it calls a severe international situation. chinese stocks rose after the country's top financial officials moved to shore up confidence. the government is tried to prevent the biggest selloff since 2015 from affecting the economy. one of the most popular politicians in taiwan says the island must except its status as upon a great power game. the mayor of taipei is a possible presidential candidate. this china-u.s. conflict is going to be a trend for the next 15 years. there is no such thing as cross strait relations. the taiwan issue is just a part of the tensions between the u.s. and china. government facing off with european union over its government. the prime minister failed to convince fellow eu leaders that italy should be allowed to block fiscal rulebook. the eu commission sent a letter to rome calling it spending plan success of

tom: here is your first word news is taylor riggs. in the the pmi readings world's second-largest economy fell to 50.2, lower than economists were forecasting and close to the dividing line between expansion and .ontraction has growingrnment tensions with its central bank. the government and the reserve bank of india have been locked in a standoff in recent days overregulation of banks and tackling bad loans. it comes at a time when india's currency is asia's worst-performing and the economy faces risk from elevated oil prices. price expectations not rising in leads in assetj purchase targets. the central bank framed its inflation forecast for the current and next two fiscal years and said it will remain below 2% target until at least early 2021. apple has overhauled two of its oldest macs after sales of the personal computers fell to the lowest point since 2010. at an event in brooklyn yesterday, the tech giant debuted a new macbook air with a new screen and a mini desktop. the company also unveiled a new ipad pro model that borrows

let's get to taylor riggs. taylor: saudi arabia is warming it will retaliate for any punitive measures over the disappearance of the journalists. be availed a political tool. president trump has said the u.s. could take action. >> when the president warns, people should take him at his word. obviously, he is very serious. i'm not going to get ahead of the curve. he will decide with the appropriate actions are, is indy we find out that saudi's were involved. taylor: meanwhile, president trump took a much on on two fronts. the president threatened to impose another round of tariffsts on beijing -- on beijing. >> they are down 32% in four months, which is 1929. that.t want i want them to negotiate a fair deal with us. i want them to open their markets. taylor: the president also said that chinese meddling in politics is more important than russian interfering in the 2016 elections. bloomberg has learned that talks ended in a stalemate yesterday. there is a risk of a no deal summit next month. negotiators have not

i am taylor riggs. this is bloomberg. francine: thank you so much. theresa may says she is considering a plan to extend the brexit transition time but does not expect to use the option. it could end a stalemate on talks which have stalled over the issue of the irish borders and eu leaders have extended the deadline for a summit in brussels. >> a withdrawal agreement and future relationships come on withdrawal agreements, there are issues around -- the backstop is what would come in place to ensure that there would be no hard border between northern ireland and ireland, if the future relationship is not in place by the end of the implementation time. 29 of march where the last date the united kingdom is a member of the european union and we have to have a deal before. all united behind michelle. >> i want to be optimistic. is march. favor -- we need to work a lot in the next weeks. leaders: some of the eu as they were meeting in brussels. let's get back to david folkerts-landau of deutsche bank. they wer

i'm taylor riggs and this is bloomberg. francine: thank you so much, taylor. we are in a delicate phase for the european union with italy under pressure from brussels after the budget deficit target scooped the market, and brexit continues to steal headlines. speech, was called through. joining us is alexander stubb. us a littler giving bit of your time. first of all, how serious is the euro area dispute with italy over the budget, the italian budget? alexander: it is always serious. it is important stick to the rules, especially when the weather is good only have a tail wind in the economy. i think all the finance ministers are right to discuss this. francine: i feel like i ask every time, but especially in europe, you just became commission president. i want to try to understand how you would counter political populist forces if you would annan -- if you would win. do you need to explain this? alexander: i do think we need to take the populist head on. i don't think there should be a frontal attack, but there should be a discussion. you have to understand th

let's get to the bloomberg first word news with taylor riggs. taylor: bill gross sees demand from overseas investors. he tweeted lack of foreign buying at these levels likely leading to lower treasury prices. his comments come at a particularly tough time for bond bulls. u.s., the white house has received the fbi report on allegations of sexual assault against supreme court nominee brett kavanaugh. that comes as senate republicans have started the clock for a make or break test vote tomorrow on his nomination. if that succeeds he could be confirmed during the weekend. italy has said the tears deficit targeted at 2.4% of gdp with a commitment to reduce in 2020 and 2021. this comes after pressure from italy's finance minister to contain the ruling coalitions spending request. the government still has not published the economic growth forecast. the government says those details will come today. the u.k. prime minister's officials are john uplands to rush -- trolley up plans to rush in brexit -- are drawing up plans to rush a brexit deal through con

i am taylor riggs. this is bloomberg. now to emerging markets, the rand gain the most intrigues after south africa's dishdent pointed a formal former governor as finance minister. he takes over to explore budget updates and faces tough challenges ahead, including convincing investors the government can curb debt and root out corruption. the imf meeting, kathleen hays asked the current central bank governor whether the appointment will be enough to reassure investors. >> a minister who was involved in framing the architecture of a democratic south africa, and not only that from where we're -- ing at the central bank, >> now that he has been this very important seat and you know him well, what impact you think he can have? minister -- we are .esponsible the constitution says we must consultation within the south african rebels and the finance minister. at least we will be having some been at the central bank for 10 years and three months, and we're looking forward to it. >> this has been a bit of an issue, central-bank inde