china sea. most of you are familiar with the claim that began in 1947 that basically is called the cows come as that's what it looks like to 80% of the south china sea. we are there now circling around some of these fortress garrisons which china is trying to turn into real territory. that is a flashpoint and of course you have the issue of taiwan. china calls it the renegade province, an island of over 20 million people who are right now really depressed and afraid for two reasons. one is that they see china swirling like a python and circling them and they also see the u.s. which may no longer have the resolve to stand with taiwan. i interviewed one professor who proposed a grand bargain that basically trained taiwan for peace everywhere else. everybody also talked to didn't think that was such a great idea but it does reflect the fact that if push comes to shove, we might not have american forces standing up for taiwan like bill clinton did in 96 or eisenhower did several times in the 50s. an

there is a new china. you can speak to that new china. i think we are going through a cyclical, you can't help but go over that adjustment. that last two or three years. it comes at a bad time for the rest of the world are in when you look at its impact on commodity prices. when you look at the vulnerability of the rest of the world in terms of anna terry policy, that's a bad combination. we'll get past that. a bad year in china is a great year in almost any other country. francine: do you question their commitment to structural reform? is there a danger? christine: we went through a couple of years of intense discussions with the chinese of parties because we were going to review the baskets of currency that define the value. this is what central banks around the world use. if you asked me if the chinese of 40's would complete the forms they had to take in order to satisfy the criteria of that currency, i would've said i don't think so. when the authorities their mind and are determined for strategy, we have seen in that case an absolute

we can do this in china. of course consequently 30 years later the interest of was tragic for these families. they lost their only child in many cases. one of the first i did after that was families who in a matter of weeks for russia not to do reverse vasectomies to reverse the sterilization process they had been forced to undergo. >> host: there is a term that there's ever been a distinctly can, it is this one. can't talk about what that means? >> guest: it is a term that means the parents who have lost their only child is really a phenomenon. recently it started from an earthquake. nobody called it that back then. about a million now with about 76,000 have been joining. what makes them different is they have tried beijing for more benefits and more help. to lose an only child of the chinese context of the many cases to lose economic security. family was still very important so when you lose your only child, your retirement plan. that is just a pure economic sense, but then there's emotional issues and issu

there is a new china. you can speak to that new china. the new board, the entrepreneurship. i think we are going through a cyclical -- you can't help but go over that adjustment. that will last two or three years. it comes at a bad time for the rest of the world, because when you look at its impact on commodity prices -- and not just commodity prices, but the other economies in brazil and so on -- and when you look at the vulnerability of the rest of the world, in terms of monetary policy, that's a bad combination. we'll get past that. a bad year in china is a great year in almost any other country. francine: madame lagarde do you , question their commitment to structural reform? what are the dangers, if the structural reforms are not being pushed through? madame lagarde: we went through a couple of years of intense discussions with the chinese authorities, because we were going to review the baskets of currency that define the value. it is the elusive currency of the imf. if you asked me, if the chinese authorities would complete the reforms, that they had to take in order

all about china. why? >> first of all, china's economy has been on a downward path for the past two or three years. and that has been felt globally. theas been reflected in earnings of certain companies around the world and their share prices. we have been living with and digesting china's slowdown, even if we haven't realized it, for some time. if you have a selloff or a series of selloffs in china, it's not really a reflection of the long-term downward trend. stockhe fact that china's market has been completely out of sync with the reality of the chinese economy for the past year or more. there was a bubble. when the bubble burst, the government intervene to prop up prices at unrealistic levels. overdueare seeing is an correction to an overpriced market. the sell off doesn't mean there is some new thing happening in china that the rest of the world has to react to. angie: you're absolutely right. a lot of china watchers point mainland activity is mostly retail investors. this is a momentum driven pl

by china. you one to one life in talking about vietnam's and how they want us back. >> bid from the chinese didn't india but we have more friends than wait. [laughter] is a great place to start. i gave you clues today and the sympathetic but just to add to that point in thin tube go to another region is important point. we haven't mentioned are the two other points better dash. china's gdp is dropping bid is scheduled to drop more. it is projecting in the three and 4% range of 2020 with the world bank projections that seems to be what we're coming ask but they started to use populations. >> the whole idea of a comprehensive national power, china had that 200 years never taken apart. by american and what i see is happening with the china commission which is bipartisan never publicans and democrats and fiber its because when we give in to north in since he do the ideal but obviously they'll have a job to buy them. this is the nervous on the economy. each year to push out that is to get to give th

it is day one of the greater china conference, the ubs greater china conference. more in the next hour with the ubs ceo. turning now to the first word on the stories making headlines around the world. showing the tv is celebration of last week's nuclear test with senior military officials. kim called the test a self-defensive step and it was a legitimate right of a sovereign state. united states has called on china to support actions against the north. said theynot -- they were not informed of the weapons test for -- beforehand. a strong response from the u.s., flying a b-52 armor over the peninsula. 's decision toul resume broadcasts in the d military size -- demilitarized zone. the two countries are being pushed closer to war according to korean officials. mexico is moving towards extradition of el chapo to the united states. chapo humiliated the authorities last july by escaping from prison for the second time. house has criticized sean penn for his october interview with el chapo at a secret jungle location. it was for a rolling stone article. some say sean pe

you would always couch that saying china will always be china. >> was that a mistake? >> it was a mistake. when i think back to that period, one of the things that i think we -- certainly that i came to assume about china was that it would move down this path where every year it would get a little more open and there would be moments where it could step back. but it would ultimately keep moving in that direction. and i think fundamentally this is sort of a slightly different conversation, but fundamentally that's probably true but i think we need to talk for seriously today and in our writing about what's going on at the moment. china really has stepped back. >> was that a historical moment in time? in other words, the '90s, the collapse of communism, the collapse of the soviet union, the moment in 1989 in china gave the united states the sense that everything was moving in terms of political, culturally, tropism was towards some as it were americanism, universal americanism with chinese characters or latin american characters or whatever. a colossal delusion. >> yeah.

's republic in china in 1949. security analysts, debate whether china trajectory will lead to a great war. experts disagree on conflict we cannot avoid the impact. afterall china sneak attack on u.s. forces stationed at pearl harbor 74 years ago many thought the idea of war between japan and the united states unimaginable. this is why peter's book and accompanied documentary series are so important. they distill down and raise issue to have analysts understood and to inform a broader audience. they have fashioned a career out of the enterprises each is built around a book and he has published ten could inning several related to china. a professor and dwish economist at the school of business at university of california irvine feater is here to tell us more about crouching tiger what china's militarism means for the world. peter. >> thank you patrick great pleasure to be meerp great honor. i really appreciate the new center for americans sponsoring this and patrick a special thanks to you. when i was doing filming

to some extent, china is a reflection of overinvestment in china, but also a reflection of not enough demand overseas. both of those probably require stronger fiscal spending in order to get the demand going to eat up some of the overcapacity we are seeing in china. angie: is the problem kind of like everybody wants to be an engineer but nobody wants to be in construction? markus: interesting. i am not sure that i would differentiate much between the two because, in a way, they are tied together. ae manufacturing side was sector that china, in particular , chose to stimulate its economy posts 2008 -- post-2008. the overcapacity there is what is weighing on growth now. a number of countries around the world have cut rates in order to stimulate exports and manufacturing, but what they are really doing is inflating housing bubbles. canada is an example, australia is an example. it is part of the same story, but different sides of the coin. ofis an unwanted side effect what we are seeing on the policy side. rishaad: marcus shorter -- mark us joining us for a discussion. israel carried out

where is china? china? not because of our pressure. i have seen, over the past year or so some articles, especially in the new york times about chinese officials, former military officials, retired, talking about the unsustainability of the kim regime. there is a real concern in china about instability in north korea. i would like to hear that discussion. there's going there's going to be pressure from the bottom up. people cannot live under those conditions. the chinese know this, the chinese know and there are real worries about the chinese and about what that instability will lead to in terms of them. so that that leads me to my third point, that is, when we talk about china, it's not getting china involved, china is very involved with the consequences. it may have its own agenda about what it wants to do this. the question is, besides pressure on china, and we have heard a lot, i'm nothing that's not potential, what are the ways a partnership with china? what what you see is opportunity at this point? thank you very much. i yelled

like every other country, china is going to do what is best for china. they need to get the supporters going again. the easiest way to do that is to devalue the currency. you want to reform your economy but they are large and historic industries. they employ a lot of people. you're not going to reform it in a way to puts those people out of work. the service sector has to provide jobs to take up the slack. this takes time. and the rest of the global economy is not really firing on all cylinders. i devalue the currency right now and i'm a big oil importer, it will not hurt as much as when oil was $100. they can still keep importing ore, all the things they will need over the next 20 years as they grow their economy. rishaad: the move to the downside for the dramaticnot been that has it? andrew: people are concerned that there was going to be another big hike. they are aware of the international consequences. going forward they will have to be more transparent. maybe not overly transparent because that has got as many risks as has the other way. china hist

it is not good for china. then there is a spill-over affect into the regional trading partners that may trigger competitive devaluation. it may trigger wider ramifications for world trade. the one to watch in terms of impact is the yuan. that is the bigger issue. >> the thing is how does this all then -- this is the first time we have really seen an equity route in china really have a huge effect globally. we have seen it take place before, but does this mean that we are getting a chinese economy that is getting more and more ingrained in the global system, or are people worrying about their individual prisons as women? >> goldman sachs said last year was the first year china did impact on the global market. people saying what is happening in the first week of the year may be enough to keep china on hold longer than people anticipate. look at the underlying economy. the route we have had on the chinese market is six months old. under the bonnet. retail sales holding up. housing prices stabilizing. there are in

and europe was definitely offset i asia and china. -- by asia and china. we are waiting for gdp figures to come out later today expected to show the the biggest slowdown since 1990. does that mean it is coming to a slowdown? yvonne: not quite yet. it is getting tougher to build a profitable business so this could trigger cost wars among customers. what you are going to see is these capital all stop private equity investors and venture capital investors will be taking a look at these companies and saying we will not bs aggressive as we were the last two years. they are pushing for more mergers. this was born because of two competing app mergers. we could see a wave of mergers in the next couple of years. fourth-quarter, despite that they see continued strength and they see no reason to hide things. trailing china's rebalancing. we will scale the summit to find out how developers are changing their tactics. "firstal report when up," returns. angie: stories making headlines around the world. hong kong police say they have received a letter from a security age

the consumer is doing fine in china. is part of the problem we have had, what is going on with the currency. just getting this breaking news coming in. 6.5 against the dollar. what is more important is they are injecting 80 billion yuan. and that is injecting liquidity into this market. is aiming toity stabilize. stabilizing oil and other two key factors for the big picture. we see the cards falling in place. volatility should come down if you look at the next -- the vix. rishaad: you bring the other leg here. th other toe drop was oil. you said there was not stability. there are loyal -- lower oil prices. guest: the consumer is enjoying the low oil prices and th energye consumers. it is good for the overall system. also we could aim for some form of stabilization because we are at the early age for the winter and we are seeing a very mild winter. also a negative impact on oil. the position on iran is it has been announced that it will come progressively into the game. most important will be the next opec meeting. probab

and we are talking china. with the new five year plan being presented in 2016, how can the world's second-largest economy shift gears without stalling its growth engine? and what does the market volitility tell us about the perception of china, and the task facing chinese regulators? well, we have, i am pleased to say, an a-star panel. thank you so much for coming on. jiang jianqing, chairman of the board of the industrial & commercial bank of china. christine lagarde, the managing director at the imf. fang xinghai, vice chairman of china's securities regulatory commission and director general at the intercontinental economic department. gary cohn, president at goldman sachs. zhang xin, chief executive officer and co-founder at soho china. and ray dalio, chairman and chief executive officer at -- chief investment officer at bridgewater associates. thank you so much for joining us. ray dalio, is there something that the west misunderstands about chinese markets? and does that exacerbate the volatility we have s

china will set the tone. the worse the market's been onto any jobs number, the better afterwards. >> china certainly. if we can follow up with a very good jobs number, then i think we can rally. then people will say the u.s. is on the right path in terms of job creation. the big number mike and i were talking at the break was wages. >> going to sleep tonight watching that china market? >> absolutely. >> thank you for joining me. that's it for us on "closing bell" we hands things off to "fast money." >> thank you. fast money starts right now live from the nasdaq market site overlooking new york city's times square. i'm melissa lee. the man who correctly called the dollar rally over a year ago and august swoon says the recession is here and things could get worse. >>> plus another day, another low for apple. almost 30% off its may highs. could this be your best chance to buy it? or has apple become a no touch stock? oil hitting a 12-year low today. one of the institutional investors top energy analyst says crud

there's a new china. i think we're going through a cyclical -- you can't help but go over that cyclical adjustment. that will last maybe two or three years. it comes at a bad time for the rest of the world. when you look at its impact on commodity prices, not only commodity prices, the other economies of brazil and so on, and you look at the vulnerability of the rest of the world, that is a bad combination. but we will get past this in terms of china. a bad year in china is a great year in almost any other country. guy: metta month -- francine: madame lagarde, do you question their commitment to structural reform? mr. fang: we -- we went through intense discussions with chinese authorities. we were going to review the special drawing right baskets of currencies which define the value of the special drawing rights, which is that sort of elusive currency of the imf which central banks around the world use. if u.s. to me whether chinese authorities would complete the reforms they have to undertake to satisfy

charlie: when you look at china and its relationship, what is china doing in the south china sea? the certainly cause a lot of concern among yout neighbors. -- your neighbors. tung: i think the history of the south china sea, you have to go back to president roosevelt's activities. he called for a cairo meeting just before the end of the second world war and outlined what the defeated nations should do on a territory and the point was made that all the territories taken away from the nations that japan or germany had occupied should be given back. in that cairo declaration, these areas were clearly defined as the territory of china. clearly defined. so from the chinese point of view, it is not only a long history about china -- charlie: from the american point of view and your neighbors they see it very differently. tung: they see it somewhat differently. and what china has done is despite strong feelings of historic rights, china has not been assertive, they have not been aggressive because often these islets, or whatever you call them, over 30 of them are with the vietnamese. ch

china was such that the beast. when it reduces its currency like that, it makes me nervous about other emerging markets. this is currency intervention and manipulation of the market at its best. talk to us about the contagion impact. i've got a chart of the dollar, the asia-dollar index. we are breaking trends within the basket. you've got see ny, 40%, hong kong dollar, korean won, indonesian rupee. how much more momentum is there in terms of contagion within the region? let's talk about the interbank rate. i think what we're looking at here, i spent a weekend looking at the pboc's balance sheet. they have the ability to do domestic qualitative easing, to offset the domestic effect of this, which is the result of their attempts to balance the external account and keep the currency stable. trying to hold the domestic currency stable is having an impact. to hold the balance sheets stable is my initial conclusion of how to deal with that. i think you have absolutely thetion marks over sustainable growth rate of this r

china has now i think by 2015 china will have one in every four chinese. if they were to form their own country it would be the largest country. that doesn't have anything to do with the one child policy. it's the big population growth of the cohort that they were basically just living longer. but the problem of the policy has as it reduces the working population that you need to support. that's the big issue. unless there is a war or something, people are going to grow older and it's definitely happening. some of the other problems this could result in, some of the speculation we don't know for sure. we definitely know that this big group of elderly people are going to age and we don't it's going to raise a lot of issues for china. >> host: it's beginning to slow down after that growth. if is any of that related to the policy? >> guest: one of the problems was as an export led economy manufacturing and that was powered by cheap labor and now of course that abundance has gone down. there are fewer workers and they want to get paid more. so the transition i

china stocks rebound after a wild week. they are trying to recover to they were start of the year ever. the dow is up by 22 points. scarlet: wall street gets good news. created 292,000 jobs in december. it could mean a set time for bonds. alix: cheap business opposite robert kinsale has an emerson back of his claim. -- has the numbers to back up his claim. scarlet: a quick check on the market activity in head of the julie releasing a bit of a bounce back although it is fading. julie: it's a bounce around. the markets after a positive reaction to the better than estimated jobs report, they can't seem to sustain gains. investors are trying to figure out what ago video -- where to go from here. if you look at the s&p 500 over the course of this session, you see a lot of bouncing around. did get negative before recovering. we talked about how this year has been this far. it is still the worst start of a year since 2008 because of today's action. we will be updating that throughout the day. in terms of groups on the move, look a

. >>> china's vice president told an audience at the world economic forum that china's economy is on track and will remain an important driving force for global economic growth. he also talked about the priorities of this year's g-20 summit to be hosted by china in september. this is about 35 minutes. >> dear friends, it's my great honor to introduce d=el irki ha the vice president of china. it is my extreme pleasure to welcome you to davos. i met you the first time 20 years ago, and since that time, we have cultivated the framework of our overall partnership with china a special friendship. vice president li, your country is presently so much in the eyes of people assembled here in davos, and many of you told me they are particularly interested in hearing from you related to the present fertility or potential fertility of a chinese economy, and i'm sure particularly with the upcoming plan so that your country will find the right policy mix as it has always done in the past. and i think over the last days, we heard again some encouraging signs coming out from china. in this context i

positive on china. compare and contrast what he had to say about china with what we heard in francine's conversation with george soros overnight who says he is currently watching the hard landing happen in china the big subject of davos. let's talk about what is happening right now. draghitalking in -- talking in's right now. -- talking in davos right now. we are up across the piece this morning. not as much as tokyo, 5% plus. center.mains front and that is the focus. that is what we are going to talk about. let's get back out to davos and francine lacqua. francine: thank you so much. we are pleased to say we are hit -- where with ahead of -- jin liqun. this is an economy that will do great. are we overoptimistic? pessimistic? china is doing fine. up to a newing stage of development and adjustment. this could be called a transition. -- a transition period. china should move away from the former paradigm to a new system, instead of putting money into fixed asset investments. export of promoting which are

and so it will benefit china as china moves on. and on the corruption side which you just mentioned earlier on, i never seen determination as i see right now in fighting corruption. and many times -- >> rose: there are high level officials being put on trial and put in jail. >> that's right. >> rose: came from a huge power base especially in the national security field. >> the depth and width of which is enormous. and i think china, the leadership is termed to -- determined to clear out the country to a rule base law base. >> rose: rule of law base. >> rule of law base country. >> rose: does xi jinping have support of the standing committee and the people who are in charge of china and the policies he enacted in which in many cases more authoritarian. i mean, he has judgment from outsiders and more power into the presidency. >> i think you need to look at it this way. the western press often speculate on this power with his accumulation power. the fact is that, you know, he has leadership style which is very persuasive, very reason

this evening the new yorker on china, look back at four decades of reporting on china is a very special night and also a convergence of two anniversaries. the new yorker is celebrating his 90th. one of the 1st to have access to china after the revolution, and of our five distinguished guest panelists, one who is not a guest i will talk about in a moment, they have collectively over 100 years of observation in writing on china and i think you will find this very enlightening and no doubt entertaining. centering on us china relations, the director and founding director. hello. yes. and i have learned recently the 1st contribution was in the70s when the new yorker produced five consecutive issues on china. solely devoted, quite a thing the 70s. and i have also learned orval was so delighted with his 1st paycheck that he went and bought tractor for his ranch in california and says this is following directives to head to the countryside. very good. sixtieth anniversary since the founding by john d rockefeller the 3rd. as part of that i've been up to the archives and quantico and became curio

china is different. there is that factor a lot of people should pay attention to. >> how inclusive will china's growth be in the future? on two ld like to speak lines. i think paying attention to the growth of s.m.e. is important for china. s.m.e. has a huge potential and vitality and it's an important sector for solving nemployment. last year we underwent an adjustment but the year end result was better than the earlier predictions, paving the form as tructural re has been criticized on this financial sector in china. as a banker, the loans to s.m.a. is a manifestation of inclusiveness in china, in our and 1.8 statement trillion to spend on s.m.e. f course we could do better. inclusiveness includes another aspect. , any very determined industry, any sector that is environmental protection we would resolutely not allow them to be established. able to klum a new and greater economy in china. >> we'll follow that with when trade is stagnant, or will china take the role the u.s. has had for years in spurrin

is not true for china. it is more important in china. >> technology is doing throughout. -- doing pretty well. economyare changing the towards a more domestic consumption and focused economy. this has impact on exports of raw materials and energy and so on. >> there has been a disconnect between what the financial markets tell you and what the real economy shows you. it is extremely pronounced in china. the financial markets went their own way almost unrelated to the real economy. angie: we are joined live from richmond, virginia, by the director of international folio management at riverfront investment group. you have been hearing it around the world. it is china. what are your concerns specifically about what is not being done at the pboc level? >> the concerns at the pboc level is the amount of opacity in terms of guidance we are getting on what the currency plan is going forward, what the plan is for accommodative currency policy. the group thatk is in real trouble is not necessarily china as much as i

china 2015 sales up 32.6% on the year. and really seeing the benefits in china. meanwhile, they dropped sharply in after hours trade after the clothing retailer said comparable sales for december were down 5% compared to a 1% increase last year. meanwhile, comparable sales for november and december were down 2%. however shares in urban outfitters trading higher up now about 2.4%. let's get out to wilfred frost at cnbc headquaters. wilfred, it seems to be more of the same from the retailers reporting disappointing sales through the end of the year. >> there's a mixed bag in fact there nancy. nothing stellar perhaps but some were less bad than expected. urban outfitters one of those names. in fact l. brands were pretty strong and gap was one of the negatives and continued to close some stores. macy's was disappointing. it said it was also laying off stock so that is something to watch ahead of this nfp release later today. the general theme overall so far, we're still early stage of these retail releases is the point that consumers wasn't as much. amazon.com captur

the other thing is china. there is always this concerned that china is slowing down. there is a macroeconomic effect. what we are seeing on the ground is the opposite. there is a lot of strong demand for iphones in china. there is competitive pressure. but it is still a case where if you look at the demand in china, you could argue it is relatively immune to the effects you are seeing on a larger level. this is something that will likely propel it going forward, let alone into the iphone 7, which could bring things up further as well. rishaad: but we don't know yet, do we? what gives you this inherent confidence that the chinese market can come back? what about, also, the indian market? that is one which is under-penetraded, rife for smartphones to be piling in there. and it has not really happened. brian: i am less optimistic about india. the numbers will be big, but that is because they are coming from a smaller base. the challenge with india is that the sides of the middle class is much smaller. the average selling price between china and india is a genetic differe

has china actually created a moment of opportunity for the u.s., china and south korea to work together to impose costs on north korea and to reverse north korea's efforts to become a nuclear weapons state? >> and costs often take the form of sanctions and we look at iran whether you look at the nuclear deal or not the sanctions were effective in getting iran to the table, particularly the banking sanctions, taking iran off the swift system. we don't have the same tools when it comes to north korea because it's substantially more isolatethan iran and other places that the u.s. has helped sanctions against. >> that's correct. a lot of people in congress have wanted to put secondary sanctions against north korea. i think there are several bills in capitol hill right now that are gaining momentum as a result of this test. but north korea is such a hard target in the international community. it is not like they're big international traders, the things they have been trying to procure are items that they can use for their nuclear and missile programs which are already under sanction by the u

for people to blame all of this on china, china is a victim more than a cause. the real cause is the american central-bank -- the american government and central banks running up debt. china is a victim like everyone else. i understand your point of view is china is a victim. , theu move the on that world could go back into recession. do you agree? do you worry that a debt bubble busting in china? jim: there is no question that there is debt in china. in 2008, when we had a problem, china could help bail us out. america spent a lot of money but we didn't have any saved the. -- any saved up. china does have that now. now.es have debt it's nothing like america or britain. you are going to have bankruptcies in china. i hope the government lets it go bankrupt. that is going to scare a lot of people and be disruptive. that, are worried about dish if you're worried about that, look at the united states. china has staggering reserves. francine: jim, you're not too worried. does it mean the market should be a lot more confident about how china handles itself? listen, i

we're not that end and on china for trade. -- dependent on china for trade. the china's import and to european economy. exports from germany are very important. currency relationships are a concern people have as well. mohammed said in his last comment, china is slowing but not collapsing. i want to underscore that. china is not collapsing. it is still growing at a decent rate and at a rate that is the envy of the rest of the world. gross talks about further currency devaluation or appreciation in china. formula,o the old which is manufacturing. confidence about the american investment experience. despite the perception of impending doom, we continue to fundamental and historical backdrop favored the intermediate term upside potential -- the key to me is the fixed environment. we did not crack it today. we didn't go to 199. bob: couldn't agree with you more. the fixed income market is saying this is not a disaster. this is not an implosion. treasuries is the first place he would see that happen, and you are correct, that is not the case. the u.s. consumer job

who's afraid of china? phillips beats. europe's china bowls ride out the country slowdown? -- china bulls ride out the country's slowdown? in london. ."u are watching "the pulse francine lacqua on assignment today. let's get you up to speed. nejra: thanks. european stocks are following for a second day on growing concerns over china and the continuing oil price rout. the shanghai composite slumped by 6%. at the same time, crude has plunged below $30 a barrel. a hedge fund manager who is chinese stock that's returned 6000% says investors should sell their shares asap. he's carried a winning streak into 2016 returning 35% so far this must. but now his adv cash, wait and watch. the federal reserve says it's it is meeting to decide interest-rate policy will proceed as planned today is tomorrow. fed officers in washington as well as the federal government were closed yesterday following a severe winter storm which had distracted travel in the region. news 24 hours a day powered by our 2400 journalists around the world, from the bloomberg first word desk,. guy: another busy morni

economics tried to put china's woes into -- roubini global economics tried to put china's woes into perspective. had the view for a number of years that china is not going to have a soft landing. it's going to have a hard, bumpy landing. betty: our next guest says the problem with china isn't just the country's slowdown, it's that investors tend to overstate its impact on the world. of -- she ishief the cio at goldman sachs. mostwriteup was one of the read stories on the bloomberg terminal today because people are trying to assess the impact. you say it is overstated. i would say that's first based on no hard landing. if china is having a hard landing, that should not derail the u.s. recovery or the u.s. bull market. betty: or the global recovery. >> or the global recovery. if we think about the impact of china or the u.s. economy -- because we do think the u.s. economy is the main driver of global growth -- what percent of u.s. exports go to china? ..7% what about bank exposure? if people are worried about a .epeat of mortgage exposure bank exposure to china is about 0.8 percent. i

china has now i think by 2015 china will have one every for chinese will be a retiree and so if china were to call to the governments own country it would be the world's third-largest country. with the china as the three largest populist countries and that really hasn't anything to do with the policy that basically with the big population growth or the cohort before the policy that basically just living longer. but the problem the policy has is that it reduces the working population that you need to support this army and that is the big issue. unless there is a war or something committees people will definitely grow older and that is happening so some of the other problems like the gender imbalance and whether this results in a warlike china some of the speculations we don't know for sure. we definitely know that despite displayed group of elderly people age and that will raise a hold of issues for china. >> host: said today we are seeing it began to slow after three decades of rapid growth. as any of that related to the one child policy? >> guest: it is because one of the problems th

and china. but it also gives me an opportunity to meet with chinese officials and to indicate to them very frankly usually behind closed doors what the issues are ththat are important to deny states and to our relationship with china. so i would say during my period of time there, with one exception, and that was the sale proposed by israel to china of a sophisticated radar system. i was very much opposed to it, was able to persuade the administration that it was worth opposing. president clinton agreed, and the sale didn't go through. but i must say it did not make the chinese government very happy with that. it was a deal they thought they had concluded, and felt that i had intervened in a very negative way. other than that, one incident i would say the relationship was very positive, and since that time it has remained so. >> secretary hagel, very reason obviously, post we balanced, tell us about the relationship that kind of you had a secretary with the chinese, the experiences you had with

be able to asia will export more to china. the loss of chinese competitiveness is the big story , and what happens to the currency is a consequence of that. last summer when we saw this chinese stock market volatility, regulators point in measures to stop the bleeding, shortselling restrictions, zoning restrictions in general -- selling restrictions in general, now and looks like they will be extended more. to these measures prolong the --vitable or make it worse do these measures prolong the inevitable or make it worse? >> you've always got>> to try to manage the markets. you don't want things collapsing around you. we are very exaggerated, take a very exaggerated view of what it means for mus. 1.5% foreign a exposure in the shanghai stock market. only one in 30 chinese own stocks. it is not of huge importance to us or the chinese. the perception is everything, i agree. scarlet: i want to switch gears to the developed economies. sweden put global markets on alert that it will instantly intervened to weaken its andency, sendin

china slowing down, china pmi looking worse. china stock market, everything is coming at the worst possible time all together at the same time. trish: it's lousy. >> it's a new year, too. just the start of the new year, so people are -- it was a really ugly start monday morning from the very beginning and people are kind of reeling, it's a hangover from the end of last year. i make one further point so that if the jobs report comes in really strong, it's a disaster. if it comes in really weak it's a disaster, too. because people are saying my gosh, there goes global growth. trish: in the meantime, we got to worry about china, too. i want to go to cheryl casone as we look at session lows, 16,486 is the level and keeps falling, cheryl? >> we've got a good half hour worth of trading, could a circuit breaker kick in? not at session lows at this point. something that's on traders' minds right now. i was talking to one of the traders, what do you make of this? this is the worst kickoff since 1991. they believe a lot of folks down here

china manufacturing economy data comes in week. the shanghai composite sees its worst ever first day loss. alix: and oil prices and lower? -- useudi arabia use its oil as its weapon of choice against iran? we begin with the markets. so much more the trend of let's turn a new leaf over. drop, at00 with an 8% one point all three major indexes were down. we saw a bit of a turnaround and saw a reversal. we are still down, no doubt about it. all 30 members of the dow industrials were lower. now we have ended with three gainers on the day. walmart, apple, and caterpillar all managing. joe: all three have something in common, they have been obliterated last year. a real global selloff. it started with china losing nearly 7% last night. they hit their circuit breakers and then decided to pull the plug on the day. we are just going to stop trading. they stop did around 1:30 in the afternoon local time and ended trading lots of concern about the economy, also the expiration of a shortselling ban that was implemented last summer when there wa

big trouble in china it seems overnight. bank fixingentral the yuan a strange -- exchange rate at a lower rate than estimated and that caused ripples of nervousness overnight. that caused the chinese currency to fall. , it's point you're making a five-year low again. interventione's and that's what they're saying in the marketplace. billion, that's what they are betting that the yuan will fall further. 79% probability it will weaken further and 33% that the yuan will trade above seven for the first time since 2008. latest data is due out thisina at some point morning. or watching for what it will do to international markets. globalken the edge off equities since we started this year. 1.5%.s. equity market down in yesterday's trading session. weus: more aggressive than saw this time yesterday. globally $2 trillion worked off global equity markets. the dow jones lost 250 points and there's a reverberation. gaining as you might have expected. the australian dollar having its worst start for the year and the yen having it strong

why not engage china or encourage china to join. china receptive to joining that and you can have some universal rules of international trade and finance. >> i think actually it's interesting when you said that obama says -- actually, actually, is pretty emphatic about not using that kind of language. there is an impression among some that that is the intent actually, if you look at a slightly different way, designed to enhance the american relationship with other countries. and in the beginning chinese trading foreign-policy officials were opposed to the idea. and today if you talk to people in beijing people come to washington and say we recognize in the long run this is not that bad. thethe united states had not signed the trade deal with asia, the so-called pivot would have been a military exercise all about security. this reminds or so, it'sso, it's a much broader part of the relationship they just security. i wouldn't count out the idea that we may find ourselves. >> am going to make you run. >> my question, when i left china

ford is not the biggest car soldr and china, but it 1.7 million cars in china last year. so china remains a huge contribution to the rest of the world. this is something that, you know, the rest of the world should appreciate more. [laughter] francine: you pointed to something also a lot of observers do under estimate which is the strength of consumer spending and it is the strength of services. how resilient are those two when you look at the chinese economy? mrs. xin: i think, still, the dynamic force of the chinese economy is its entrepreneurialism and its private sector and especially the low to medium sized companies. not the gigantic s.o.e.'s though they come out with a lot of power, it is the millions and millions -- that matter the most. in that regard the reforms still need to be more focused on giving them the support whether a capital market support or tax support, monetary support. those are very important for the continuous growth. that will continue to be the growth engine for china and now from where i sit i see incredible innovation coming from the young,