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Jun 28, 2018
06/18

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Zied Ben Bouallegue; Tobias Heppelmann; Susanne E. Theis; Pierre Pinson

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Probabilistic forecasts in the form of ensemble of scenarios are required for complex decision making processes. Ensemble forecasting systems provide such products but the spatio-temporal structures of the forecast uncertainty is lost when statistical calibration of the ensemble forecasts is applied for each lead time and location independently. Non-parametric approaches allow the reconstruction of spatio-temporal joint probability distributions at a low computational cost. For example, the...

Topics: Statistics, Applications, Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics, Physics

Source: http://arxiv.org/abs/1511.05877

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Jun 28, 2018
06/18

by
Chirag Dhara; Maik Renner; Axel Kleidon

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Convective and radiative cooling are the two principle mechanisms by which the Earth's surface transfers heat into the atmosphere and that shape surface temperature. However, this partitioning is not sufficiently constrained by energy and mass balances alone. We use a simple energy balance model in which convective fluxes and surface temperatures are determined with the additional thermodynamic limit of maximum convective power. We then show that the broad geographic variation of heat fluxes...

Topics: Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics, Physics

Source: http://arxiv.org/abs/1512.01374

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Jun 30, 2018
06/18

by
Jianing Zhang

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A stochastic method is introduced for geometric modeling aerosol surface roughness with random field and discrete differential geometry theory. Optical scattering properties are computed for randomly oriented spheroidal particles with uniformly random surface roughness. Invariant imbedding T-Matrix and geometric optics method are applied to compute light scattering properties of aerosol particles covered from Rayleigh to geometric optics region. We simulatied scattering phase matrix of model...

Topics: Physics, Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics, Chemical Physics

Source: http://arxiv.org/abs/1704.05821

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Jun 30, 2018
06/18

by
Francesco Fedele

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Recently, Banner et al. (2014) highlighted a new fundamental property of open ocean wave groups, the so-called crest slowdown. For linear narrowband waves, this is related to the geometric and dynamical phase velocities $U_d$ and $U_g$ associated with the parallel transport through the principal fiber bundle of the wave motion with $\mathit{U}(1)$ symmetry. The theoretical predictions are shown to be in fair agreement with ocean field observations, from which the average crest speed $c=U_d+U_g$...

Topics: Physics, Mathematics, Fluid Dynamics, Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics, Mathematical Physics

Source: http://arxiv.org/abs/1406.0051

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Jun 28, 2018
06/18

by
F. Spineanu; M. Vlad

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This work is intended to be a contribution to the study of the morphology of the rising convective columns, for a better representation of the processes of entrainment and detrainment. We examine technical methods for the description of the interface of expanding clouds and reveal the role of \emph{fingering} instability which increases the effective length of the periphery of the cloud. Assuming Laplacian growth we give a detailed derivation of the time-dependent conformal transformation that...

Topics: Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics, Physics

Source: http://arxiv.org/abs/1508.04240

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Jun 29, 2018
06/18

by
Jacob Haqq-Misra; Prabal Saxena; Eric T. Wolf; Ravi Kumar Kopparapu

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The population of known extrasolar planets includes giant and terrestrial planets that closely orbit their host star. Such planets experience significant tidal distortions that can force the planet into synchronous rotation. The combined effects of tidal deformation and centripetal acceleration induces significant asphericity in the shape of these planets, compared to the mild oblateness of Earth, with maximum gravitational acceleration at the poles. Here we show that this latitudinal variation...

Topics: Earth and Planetary Astrophysics, Astrophysics, Instrumentation and Methods for Astrophysics,...

Source: http://arxiv.org/abs/1608.02536

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Jun 30, 2018
06/18

by
Jacob Haqq-Misra; Ravi Kumar Kopparapu

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Earth-like planets within the liquid water habitable zone of M type stars may evolve into synchronous rotators. On these planets, the sub-stellar hemisphere experiences perpetual daylight while the opposing anti-stellar hemisphere experiences perpetual darkness. Because the night-side hemisphere has no direct source of energy, the air over this side of the planet is prone to freeze out and deposit on the surface, which could result in atmospheric collapse. However, general circulation models...

Topics: Physics, Earth and Planetary Astrophysics, Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics, Astrophysics

Source: http://arxiv.org/abs/1410.0186

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Jun 28, 2018
06/18

by
Shiv Priyam Raghuraman

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Using a recent conceptual model of the glacial-interglacial cycles we present more evidence of Milankovitch cycles being the trigger for retreat and forming of ice sheets in the cycles. This model is based on a finite approximation of an infinite dimensional model which has three components: Budyko's energy balance model describing the annual mean temperatures at latitudes, Widiasih's ODE which describes the behavior of the edge of the ice sheet, and Walsh et al. who introduced a snow line to...

Topics: Dynamical Systems, Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics, Mathematics, Physics

Source: http://arxiv.org/abs/1511.06008

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Jun 30, 2018
06/18

by
K. W. Bowman; J. Liu; A. A. Bloom; N. C. Parazoo; M. Lee; Z. Jiang; D. Menemenlis; M. M. Gierach; G. J. Collatz; K. R. Gurney; D. Wunch

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The El Ni\~{n}o Modoki in 2010 lead to historic droughts in Brazil. We quantify the global and Brazilian carbon response to this event using the NASA Carbon Monitoring System Flux (CMS-Flux) framework. Satellite observations of CO$_2$, CO, and solar induced fluorescence (SIF) are ingested into a 4D-variational assimilation system driven by carbon cycle models to infer spatially resolved carbon fluxes including net ecosystem exchange, biomass burning, and gross primary productivity (GPP). The...

Topics: Physics, Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics

Source: http://arxiv.org/abs/1703.03778

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Jun 29, 2018
06/18

by
Bo You; Fang Li

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This paper is concerned with the long-time behavior of solutions for the three dimensional primitive equations of large-scale ocean and atmosphere dynamics in an unbounded domain. Since the Sobolev embedding is no longer compact in an unbounded domain, we cannot obtain the asymptotical compactness of the semigroup generated by problem (2.4)-(2.6) by the Sobolev compactness embedding theorem even if we obtain the existence of an absorbing set in more regular phase space. To overcome this...

Topics: Physics, Analysis of PDEs, Mathematical Physics, Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics, Mathematics

Source: http://arxiv.org/abs/1612.02679

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Jun 26, 2018
06/18

by
Martin Bergemann; Christian Jakob; Todd P. Lane

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Coastally associated rainfall is a common feature especially in tropical and subtropical regions. However, it has been difficult to quantify the contribution of coastal rainfall features to the overall local rainfall. We develop a novel technique to objectively identify precipitation associated with land-sea interaction and apply it to satellite based rainfall estimates. The Maritime Continent, the Bight of Panama, Madagascar and the Mediterranean are found to be regions where land-sea...

Topics: Physics, Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics

Source: http://arxiv.org/abs/1501.06265

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Jun 30, 2018
06/18

by
Tamas Bodai; Valerio Lucarini; Frank Lunkeit; Robert Boschi

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The Ghil-Sellers energy balance model of Earth's climate, features -- for a considerable range of the solar intensity -- two stable climate states (a warm and a cold snowball Earth), where the bistability results from the celebrated ice-albedo feedback. The unstable solution is obtained and characterized in this paper. We find such unstable states by applying for the first time in a geophysical context the so-called edge tracking method that has been used for studying multiple coexisting states...

Topics: Physics, Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics, Statistical Mechanics, Condensed Matter

Source: http://arxiv.org/abs/1402.3269

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Jun 30, 2018
06/18

by
Bernard Gottschalk

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Using parametric analysis (curve fitting) we find a persistent temperature bump, coincident with World War II (WW2), in eight independent time series, four land- and four ocean-based. We fit the data with a Gaussian on a quadratic background. Six parameters (constant, linear and quadratic background terms and the amplitude, position and width of the Gaussian) are free to vary. The mean fitted Gaussian amplitude is 0.339$\pm$ 0.065$\,^\circ$C, non-zero by 5.2$\sigma$ and therefore not...

Topics: Physics, Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics

Source: http://arxiv.org/abs/1703.09281

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Jun 30, 2018
06/18

by
Bernard Gottschalk

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We fit 12 independent surface temperature time series (zones of latitude), 6 land- and 6 ocean-based, with a Gaussian (centered around WW2) on a quadratic background. The four polar zones are unusable. Each of the remaining 8 shows evidence of a 0.2-0.3 degree C bump, although one zone is dropped from the final analysis because of an aberrant fit. Thus, we find that a surface temperature increase around WW2 is a robust, statistically significant (5.2 sigma) feature of the data, and must either...

Topics: Physics, Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics

Source: http://arxiv.org/abs/1703.06511

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Jun 30, 2018
06/18

by
Nicola Scafetta

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Gil-Alana et al. (Physica A: 396, 42-50, 2014) compared the sunspot number record and the temperature record and found that they differ: the sunspot number record is characterized by a dominant 11-year cycle while the temperature record appears to be characterized by a singularity or pole in the spectral density function at the zero frequency. Consequently, they claimed that the two records are characterized by substantially different statistical fractional models and rejected the hypothesis...

Topics: Physics, Astrophysics, Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics, Earth and Planetary Astrophysics,...

Source: http://arxiv.org/abs/1407.7794

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Jun 29, 2018
06/18

by
Sabine Hittmeir; Rupert Klein; Jinkai Li; Edriss S. Titi

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We study a moisture model for warm clouds that has been used by Klein and Majda as a basis for multiscale asymptotic expansions for deep convective phenomena. These moisture balance equations correspond to a bulk microphysics closure in the spirit of Kessler and of Grabowski and Smolarkiewicz, in which water is present in the gaseous state as water vapor and in the liquid phase as cloud water and rain water. It thereby contains closures for the phase changes condensation and evaporation, as...

Topics: Fluid Dynamics, Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics, Analysis of PDEs, Physics, Mathematics, Geophysics

Source: http://arxiv.org/abs/1610.00060

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Jun 27, 2018
06/18

by
Jinkai Li; Edriss S. Titi

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In this paper, we consider the Cauchy problem to the TROPIC CLIMATE MODEL derived by Frierson-Majda-Pauluis in [Comm. Math. Sci, Vol. 2 (2004)] which is a coupled system of the barotropic and the first baroclinic modes of the velocity and the typical midtropospheric temperature. The system considered in this paper has viscosities in the momentum equations, but no diffusivity in the temperature equation. We establish here the global well-posedness of strong solutions to this model. In proving...

Topics: Fluid Dynamics, Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics, Analysis of PDEs, Mathematics, Geophysics, Physics

Source: http://arxiv.org/abs/1504.05285

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Jun 30, 2018
06/18

by
Chongsheng Cao; Jinkai Li; Edriss S. Titi

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In this paper, we consider the initial-boundary value problem of the 3D primitive equations for oceanic and atmospheric dynamics with only horizontal diffusion in the temperature equation. Global well-posedness of strong solutions are established with $H^2$ initial data.

Topics: Physics, Fluid Dynamics, Mathematics, Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics, Analysis of PDEs, Geophysics

Source: http://arxiv.org/abs/1401.1234

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Jun 30, 2018
06/18

by
Chongsheng Cao; Jinkai Li; Edriss S. Titi

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In this paper, we consider the 3D primitive equations of oceanic and atmospheric dynamics with only horizontal eddy viscosities in the horizontal momentum equations and only vertical diffusivity in the temperature equation. Global well-posedness of strong solutions is established for any initial data such that the initial horizontal velocity $v_0\in H^2(\Omega)$ and the initial temperature $T_0\in H^1(\Omega)\cap L^\infty(\Omega)$ with $\nabla_HT_0\in L^q(\Omega)$, for some $q\in(2,\infty)$....

Topics: Physics, Geophysics, Fluid Dynamics, Analysis of PDEs, Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics, Mathematics

Source: http://arxiv.org/abs/1703.02512

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5.0

Jun 27, 2018
06/18

by
Erdal Yiğit; Alexander S. Medvedev; Paul Hartogh

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We present the first general circulation model simulations that quantify and reproduce patches of extremely cold air required for CO$_2$ condensation and cloud formation in the Martian mesosphere. They are created by subgrid-scale gravity waves (GWs) accounted for in the model with the interactively implemented spectral parameterization. Distributions of GW-induced temperature fluctuations and occurrences of supersaturation conditions are in a good agreement with observations of high-altitude...

Topics: Earth and Planetary Astrophysics, Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics, Astrophysics, Physics, Fluid...

Source: http://arxiv.org/abs/1505.04472

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Jun 27, 2018
06/18

by
G. Bel; C. P. Connaughton; M. Toots; M. M. Bandi

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The fluctuations in wind power entering an electrical grid (Irish grid) were analyzed and found to exhibit correlated fluctuations with a self-similar structure, a signature of large-scale correlations in atmospheric turbulence. The statistical structure of temporal correlations for fluctuations in generated and forecast time series was used to quantify two types of forecast error: a timescale error ($e_{\tau}$) that quantifies the deviations between the high frequency components of the...

Topics: Nonlinear Sciences, Data Analysis, Statistics and Probability, Fluid Dynamics, Chaotic Dynamics,...

Source: http://arxiv.org/abs/1503.09070

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Jun 30, 2018
06/18

by
F. Drullion; S. G. Sajjadi

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In this paper we demonstrate numerical computations of turbulent wind blowing over group of waves that are growing in time. The numerical model adopted for the turbulence model is based on differential second-moment model that was adopted for growing idealized waves by Drullion and Sajjadi (2014). The results obtained here demonstrate the formation of cat's-eye which appear asymmetrically over the waves within a group.

Topics: Physics, Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics

Source: http://arxiv.org/abs/1704.05052

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Jun 30, 2018
06/18

by
S. G. Sajjadi

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The original investigation of Lamb (1932, {\S}349) for the effect of viscosity on monochromatic surface waves is extended to account for second-order Stokes surface waves on deep water in the presence of surface tension. This extension is used to evaluate interfacial impedance for Stokes waves under the assumption that the waves are growing and hence the surface waves are unsteady. Thus, the previous investigation of Sajjadi et al. (2014) is further explored in that (i) the surface wave is...

Topics: Fluid Dynamics, Physics, Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics

Source: http://arxiv.org/abs/1704.02353