This short theoretical paper works to distinguish the concept of trust from the concept of confidence. Although these terms are often used interchangeably and have some commonalities, this paper argues that they are different in several ways. A confidence judgement typically has a very specific referent, and is influenced by base rates and prior probabilities. A trust judgement has a broader scope and referent and is characterized by a specific lack of information, and by the need to take a...

Topics: DTIC Archive, HUMANSYSTEMS INC GUELPH (ONTARIO), *CONFIDENCE LEVEL, JUDGEMENT(PSYCHOLOGY),...

We develop a new measure of reliability for the mean behavior of a process by calculating the probability that the cumulative sample mean will ever deviate from its long-term mean, and its true mean, over a period of time. This measure can be used as an alternative to estimating system performance using confidence intervals. We derive the tradeoffs between four critical parameters for this measure: the underlying variance of the data, the starting sample size of a procedure, and the precision...

Topics: DTIC Archive, NAVAL POSTGRADUATE SCHOOL MONTEREY CA, *PROBABILITY, BEHAVIOR, CONFIDENCE LEVEL, MEAN

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Jul 21, 2016
07/16

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Impact Journals

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The paper anchored on employee compensation as a panacea for organizational performance. Compensation is the total amount of the monetary and non-monetary pay provided to an employee by an employer in return for work performed as required. This paper therefore, x-rays the importance of employee compensation to organizational performance. It examines the extent to which increase in fringe benefits could affect organizational performance. It also tries to ascertain the extent to which increment...

Topics: Labour Market and Ensure Sustainability in the Futur, Sample Size, "Confidence Level...

This memo extends the results for Tech Memo 11. By use of simulation, two EEP ellipses, one or both inappropriately (by use of the wrong statistic) normalized, are combined. The probability (obtained by simulating the ellipse combination 1000 times) of the resultant ellipse containing the target is then compared to the theoretical result. Keywords: Simulation, EEP, Chi square statistic, F-statistic, Confidence Level, Variance, Covariance, Ellipse combination, Sample size.

Topics: DTIC Archive, JET PROPULSION LAB PASADENA CA, *COMPUTER PROGRAMS, *CONFIDENCE LEVEL, *SIMULATION,...

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12

Apr 9, 2018
04/18

by
Alex Yang

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Market risk economic capital is an internal capital reserve to cover unexpected loss due to market movement. This presentation is intended to answer several fundamental economic capital questions: what is economic capital? What is the difference between economic capital and regulatory capital? How to compute economic capital? You can find more presentations at http: //www.finpricing.com/paperList.html

Topics: Economic capital, market risk, VaR, unexpected loss, time horizon scaling, confidence level...

Assurance cases provide a structured method of explaining why a system has some desired property, e.g., that the system is safe. But there is no agreed approach for explaining what degree of confidence one should have in the conclusions of such a case. In this paper, we use the principle of eliminative induction to provide a justified basis for assessing how much confidence one should have in an assurance case argument.

Topics: DTIC Archive, CARNEGIE-MELLON UNIV PITTSBURGH PA SOFTWARE ENGINEERING INST, *SOFTWARE ENGINEERING,...

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Apr 13, 2018
04/18

by
Alex Yang

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Market risk economic capital is an internal capital reserve to cover unexpected loss due to market movement. This presentation is intended to answer several fundamental economic capital questions: what is economic capital? What is the difference between economic capital and regulatory capital? How to compute economic capital? https://ia801008.us.archive.org/33/items/alex_MrEc_201804/mrEc.pdf

Topics: Economic capital, market risk, VaR, unexpected loss, time horizon scaling, confidence level...

In this report we define strong confidence interval procedures and discuss their properties. Strong confidence means that the reported confidence level is achieved even conditioned on configurations. Furthermore this is true for both the Gaussian and the slash sampling situations. We will show how such a procedure can be obtained and compare its performance to some popular non-parametric confidence intervals. (Author)

Topics: DTIC Archive, Morgenthaler,S, PRINCETON UNIV NJ DEPT OF STATISTICS, *CONFIDENCE LIMITS,...

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Aug 28, 2015
08/15

by
IASET JOURNALS

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This paper proposes a zero one double sampling plan for the truncated life tests assuming that the lifetime of the product follows an inverse Rayleigh distribution. The minimum sample sizes necessary to ensure the specified life percentile are obtained for the specified consumer’s confidence level. The operating characteristic values of the designed sampling plan and the minimum percentile ratios for the specified producer’s risk are obtained. Numerical illustration is provided to explain...

Topics: Zero one Double Sampling Plan, Truncated Life Tests, Producers Risk, Consumer’s Confidence Level...

The objective of this proposal was to investigate the similarities and differences of the neural systems of human-automation trust (HAT) and human-human trust (HHT) in a series of three studies that combined an X-ray luggage-screening task with functional magnetic resonance imaging by manipulating the reliability of advice from a human or automated luggage inspector framed as experts. HAT and HHT were measured as the acceptance rates of advice either giving by the machine or the human agent....

Topics: DTIC Archive, Krueger,Frank, George Mason University Fairfax United States, brain, humans, MAGNETIC...

Though typical malware delivery vectors, behaviors, and general attack craft can be verbally explained and even illustrated, greater familiarity and confidence is imbued in the cyber defender when such theoretical explanations are followed by guided practical exercises that provide realistic scenarios. To demonstrate this, we created seven scenarios utilizing common attack types combined with prominent artifacts for indicators of compromise and prominent incident investigative tools. These...

Topics: DTIC Archive, NAVAL POSTGRADUATE SCHOOL MONTEREY CA, *EDUCATION, ARTIFACTS, ATTACK, COMPUTER...

This report presents an approach to establishing point estimates of system survivability along with associated confidence levels. It applies this approach to an example problem. The report also contains a probability tutorial.

Topics: DTIC Archive, Williams, R L, KAMAN SCIENCES CORP COLORADO SPRINGS CO, *PROBABILITY, SURVIVABILITY,...

The well-known Chi-square test can be used to determine whether the difference in two rates is statistically significant, and if so, at what level of significance. This paper discusses the related question of how large a difference in rates must be (when one rate is held constant) in order to show statistical significance at a given level of significance. An illustrative example, adapted from data appearing in the biostatistical literature, is provided.

Topics: DTIC Archive, Miller, Allen R, NAVAL RESEARCH LAB WASHINGTON DC, *CHI SQUARE TEST, *BIOSTATISTICS,...

The Bienayme-Chebyshev Inequality provides a quantitative bound on the level of confidence of a measurement with known combined standard uncertainty and assumed coverage factor. The result is independent of the detailed nature of the probability distribution that characterizes knowledge of the measurand.

Topics: DTIC Archive, NATIONAL INST OF STANDARDS AND TECHNOLOGY GAITHERSBURG MD, *UNCERTAINTY, *CONFIDENCE...

While developing a documentation solution for medics in the field, confidence measures have been incorporated to improve command rejection and minimize enrollment. The new enrollment algorithms makes speaker-dependent recognition competitive with speaker-independent recognition.

Topics: DTIC Archive, HANDHELD SPEECH LLC AMESBURY MA, *SPEECH RECOGNITION, ALGORITHMS, CONFIDENCE LEVEL,...

This paper gives the general theory of optimal confidence limits for systems reliability introduced by Buehler (1957). This is specialized to series systems. It is noted that some results previously given are false. In particular, counter-example for results of Sudakov (1974), Winterbottom (1974) and Harris and Soms (1980, 1981) are given. Numerical examples are provided, which suggest that despite the theoretical problems of the results, they are nevertheless valid for significance levels...

Topics: DTIC Archive, Harris,B, WISCONSIN UNIV-MADISON MATHEMATICS RESEARCH CENTER, *CONFIDENCE LEVEL,...

This paper explores the use of t-statistics based on two or four order statistics. The functions of the order statistics which are used to define the t-statistics are the hinges. The hinges are approximately the quartiles and are either exact order statistics or the means of two adjacent order statistics. Two t-statistics based on the hinges are examined and compared to other t-statistics, including Student's t, using various criteria. (Author)

Topics: DTIC Archive, Horn,Paul S, PRINCETON UNIV NJ DEPT OF STATISTICS, *Order statistics, Confidence...

In this project confidence intervals were determined for the functions of variance components. These included one-sided and two-sided confidence intervals. Since no method is available for exact (exact confidence coefficients) for confidence intervals on the functions of variance components considered, confidence intervals with approximate confidence coefficients were examined. In each case large simulation studies were conducted to determine how good the confidence intervals are. In cases...

Topics: DTIC Archive, Graybill,Franklin A, COLORADO STATE UNIV FORT COLLINS DEPT OF STATISTICS, *CONFIDENCE...

The People's Republic of China is recovering the global role it held for much of the world's history. The rest of the world must adjust to China's return to the world stage. However, a close study of Chinese history and China's wars reveals that China has not sought to project its power far beyond it home territories. Chinese dynasties and governments have found the challenge of maintaining a unified China a constant struggle and have not sought to establish domination over territories far from...

Topics: DTIC Archive, *CHINA, MILITARY OPERATIONS, MILITARY HISTORY, GOVERNMENT(FOREIGN), CONFRONTATION,...

A method is developed for obtaining confidence bands in polynomial regression when the observations are independently distributed with constant but unknown variance. The bands may be obtained, in principle, over arbitrary sets of the independent variable with exact preassigned confidence coefficients. In general, difficult distribution problems result when specific applications are attempted. The major portion of this paper is concerned with first degree polynomials since some progress has been...

Topics: DTIC Archive, Gafarian, A V, SYSTEM DEVELOPMENT CORP SANTA MONICA CA, *LINEAR REGRESSION ANALYSIS,...

The report describes three position estimation procedures. The first is for combining estimates from different sources into a composite position estimate. The second is for generating a position estimate from bearing on or from two or more locations. The third is for generating a position estimate from two or more lines of bearing. The second revision represents a complete restructing of the report. In addition to containing corrections to several errors that are present in the original...

Topics: DTIC Archive, Forrest, R N, NAVAL POSTGRADUATE SCHOOL MONTEREY CA, *STATISTICAL ANALYSIS,...

The central government's limited writ and perceived corruption are helping sustain a Taliban insurgency, and feeding pessimism about the Afghanistan stabilization effort. However, ethnic disputes remain confined largely to political debate and competition, enabling President Karzai to try to focus on accepting U.S. and international advice on how to improve governance, reversing security deterioration, and on winning re-election in presidential elections slated for August 20, 2009. Karzai is...

Topics: DTIC Archive, Katzman, Kenneth, LIBRARY OF CONGRESS WASHINGTON DC CONGRESSIONAL RESEARCH SERVICE,...

The general public often perceives the government to be bureaucratic. One reason is that the public perceives that the government too rigidly enforces laws and regulations or that favoritism or bias influences decisions to make exceptions or waivers of rules. Although observed in various contexts, such perception is particularly evident in government contracting and procurement. This perception can erode the public confidence in government; thus, improving the public's perception is paramount....

Topics: DTIC Archive, Potter, Kenyon, CALIFORNIA UNIV OAKLAND, *REGULATIONS, DECISION MAKING, MANAGEMENT,...

The objective of this document is to communicate the progress made on an initiative to improve the current Case-Based Reasoning (CBR) functionality of the Multi-Intelligence Tools Suite (MITS) platform. To do so, a new similarity measure based on information theory called Iterative Sub-Setting (ISS) is proposed. The goal of this initiative was to provide a potential solution to a list of issues identified in the literature about Maritime Anomaly Detection (MAD). Various tests with this measure...

Topics: DTIC Archive, DEFENCE RESEARCH AND DEVELOPMENT CANADA VALCARTIER (QUEBEC), *INFORMATION THEORY,...

In order to obtain lower confidence limits for the reliability of series systems using binomial subsystem data, K. A. Weaver introduced the method of 'key test results' . This work was extended by A. Winterbottom. In the present paper, conditions are obtained under which the 'method of key test results' gives Buehler optimal lower confidence limits identical with those given by the ordering induced by the maximum likelihood estimator. Keywords: System reliability; Reliability estimation; Key...

Topics: DTIC Archive, Harris,B, WISCONSIN UNIV-MADISON MATHEMATICS RESEARCH CENTER, *SERIES(MATHEMATICS),...

This reference document contains tables of confidence limits for proportions for all sample size from 1 through 100. For sample sizes 105 through 200, tables are provided at intervals of five. Tables are also provided for sample sizes of 500 and 1000. When a sample size is not included in one of the tables, a method is provided for interpolating between tabled values to obtain accurate confidence limits for any sample size less than 1000. Confidence limits have been computed for the most...

Topics: DTIC Archive, Faust, Robert B, AIR FORCE DEVELOPMENT TEST CENTER EGLIN AFB FL, *ACCURACY,...

We describe the various techniques that were proposed for constructing non-parametric confidence intervals using the bootstrap. These include bootstrap pivotal intervals, percentile and bias-corrected percentile intervals, and non-parametric titling intervals. These methods are small sample improvements over the usual + or - standard deviation intervals. We discuss them in detail, outlining underlying assumptions in each case. We show how the non- parametric titling interval can be viewed as an...

Topics: DTIC Archive, Tibshirani, Robert J., STANFORD UNIV CA LAB FOR COMPUTATIONAL STATISTICS, *CONFIDENCE...

A common rule of thumb used in binomial-outcome reliability studies is that 22 trials with zero failures are needed to conclude a 90% minimal success rate with 90% confidence. This report explores the origins of this rule and shows how it is overly conservative. Alternative methods for constructing lower confidence bounds for binomial proportions are described which allow the 90/90 reliability criteria to be achieved with as few as 13 trials.

Topics: DTIC Archive, ARMY RESEARCH LAB ABERDEEN PROVING GROUND MD WEAPONS AND MATERIALS RESEARCH...

The following report presents the results of a study undertaken by A & P Appledore International on behalf of NSRP SP-4, to forecast international commercial shipbuilding demand over the 10 year period 1996 to 2005. This has been done to a high degree of detail (58 separate categories of ship size and type have been reviewed), and with a particular emphasis to the potential for market penetration by US shipyards seeking to enter the commercial sector. This has been done by reviewing both...

Topics: DTIC Archive, NEWPORT NEWS SHIPBUILDING VA, *COMMERCE, *MARKETING, *SHIPBUILDING, FUNCTIONS,...

Assurance cases provide an argument and evidence explaining why a claim about some system property holds. This report outlines a framework for justifying confidence in the truth of such an assurance case claim. The framework is based on the notion of eliminative induction - the principle (first put forward by Francis Bacon) that confidence in the truth of a hypothesis (or claim) increases as reasons for doubting its truth are identified and eliminated. Possible reasons for doubting the truth of...

Topics: DTIC Archive, CARNEGIE-MELLON UNIV PITTSBURGH PA SOFTWARE ENGINEERING INST, *CONFIDENCE LEVEL,...

Past research on people's ability to assess probabilities has shown two common errors, overconfidence in one's knowledge and insensitivity to task difficulty. This research has created a new class of experts: those who have studied probability assessors and who are aware of the common errors. The performance of eight such experts is here compared to the performance of twelve untrained subjects and fifteen who had previously received training in probability assessment. All subjects responded to...

Topics: DTIC Archive, Lichtenstein,Sarah, DECISION RESEARCH EUGENE OR, *PROBABILITY,...

Topics: DTIC Archive, WARNER ROBINS AIR LOGISTICS CENTER ROBINS AFB GA, *COMPUTER FILES, *CONFIGURATION...

This report concerns interval estimation of the mean of an underlying exponential distribution from a time-truncated, non-replacement life test. Computer methods are developed, and lower confidence bounds are tabulated for a variety of confidence coefficients and sample sizes. (Author)

Topics: DTIC Archive, Mann,Nancy R, CALIFORNIA UNIV LOS ANGELES DEPT OF BIOMATHEMATICS, *Confidence level,...

Students with a wide range of coursework in physics or music theory read expositions in both domains. After reading, for each text students provided a judgment of confidence in ability to verify inferences based the central principle of the text. The primary dependent variable was calibration of comprehension, the degree of association between confidence and performance in the inference test. Two results of most interest were expertise in a domain was inversely related to calibration and...

Topics: DTIC Archive, Glenberg,Arthur M, WISCONSIN CENTER FOR EDUCATION RESEARCH MADISON, *COMPREHENSION,...

Generalizability (G) theory was used to assess the reliability of criterion measures across four Air Force specialties. This analysis strategy was applied to work sample tests (i.e., Walk-Through Performance Test (WTPT) scores) and ratings of job proficiency. Results indicated that WTPT scores were reliable with each specialty. In addition, ratings were reliable across different rating forms (i.e., general to specific) and within rating sources (i.e., incumbents, peers, and supervisors)....

Topics: DTIC Archive, Kraiger, Kurt, DENVER UNIV CO DEPT OF PSYCHOLOGY, *MEASUREMENT, *PERFORMANCE(HUMAN),...

Don t Ask, Don t Tell (DADT) prohibited gays from serving openly in the military from December 1993 to September 2011. The present study, conducted over one year after DADT s repeal, utilized a survey of attitudes toward DADT that was previously administered to Marine Corps officers at the Naval Postgraduate School (NPS) in 1999, 2004, and 2010. This survey, re-administered to NPS Marine officers in November 2012, addressed the following areas: policy, cohesion, leadership, tolerance, unit...

Topics: DTIC Archive, NAVAL POSTGRADUATE SCHOOL MONTEREY CA, *ATTITUDES(PSYCHOLOGY), *HOMOSEXUALITY,...

A variety of discrimination tasks using complex, multifaceted stimuli were presented to subjects either with or without the opportunity to study a number of labeled examples. These tasks included deciding whether handwriting samples were produced by an American or a European, whether an ulcer was benign or malignant and which of three horses was a winner of a race at Aqueduct in 1969. Complex stimuli were chosen so that there would be a high probability that in the labeled study examples,...

Topics: DTIC Archive, Fischhoff, Baruch, DECISIONS AND DESIGNS INC MCLEAN VA, *DECISION MAKING,...

This contractor has two major objectives. The first was to build, test, and deliver to the government an entry control system using speaker verification (voice authentication) as the mechanism for verifying the user's claimed identity. This system included a physical mantrap, with an integral weight scale to prevent more than one user from gaining access with one verification (tailgating). The speaker verification part of the entry control system contained all the updates and embellishments to...

Topics: DTIC Archive, Davis,Robert L, TEXAS INSTRUMENTS INC DALLAS, *Speech recognition, *Voice...

Asymptotic procedures are given for testing certain hypotheses concerning eigenvectors and for constructing confidence regions for eigenvectors. These asymptotic procedures are derived under fairly general conditions on the estimates of the matrix whose eigenvectors are of interest. Applications of the general results to principal components analysis and canonical variate analysis are given. (Author)

Topics: DTIC Archive, Tyler,David E, PRINCETON UNIV NJ DEPT OF STATISTICS, *EIGENVECTORS, STATISTICAL...

In many situations, it is impossible to perform a system vibration test. If modeling and analysis are to replace system tests, then it is imperative to have confidence in the results. Correlation/validation is the path to providing this confidence and determining the predictability of models used in the decision making process. Within the new validation paradigm, there is no system level test data. Therefore, a probabilistic system correlation must be performed. The product of this research...

Topics: DTIC Archive, WISCONSIN UNIV MADISON, *PROPAGATION, *SPACECRAFT, *VALIDATION, CONFIDENCE LEVEL,...

The proposal dealt with several problems in the areas of data fusion and semi-parametric regression models. The problems were formulated specifically in the context of linear models, both univariate and multivariate. Some data fusion problems that arise in the area of calibration has been successfully solved. In addition, in the context of the calibration problem, univariate as well as multivariate, several satisfactory confidence regions have been constructed and applied to real data. In the...

Topics: DTIC Archive, MARYLAND UNIV BALTIMORE DEPT OF MATHEMATICS AND STATISTICS, *STATISTICAL INFERENCE,...

The Information Industry is a viable, dynamic industry characterized by mergers and acquisitions. It faces many challenges, perhaps the most critical being the recent loss of venture capital. Despite the latest economic fluctuations, we project that demand will continue to expand. Whether this growth will match the 1990's levels will depend on consumer confidence and industry's innovation. The industry will continue to provide innovative products that will enable future growth in other sectors....

Topics: DTIC Archive, Hawawi, Al, INDUSTRIAL COLL OF THE ARMED FORCES WASHINGTON DC, *INDUSTRIES,...

Topics: DTIC Archive, JOINT PUBLICATIONS RESEARCH SERVICE ARLINGTON VA, *INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS,...

Command, Control, and Information Systems (C2ISs) are complex software products that must conform to agreed standards in order to be interoperable in joint and combined operations. Due to the complexity of information exchange between heterogeneous C2ISs, thorough testing is indispensable to gain confidence that these standards are implemented correctly and semantic interoperability is indeed achieved. Testing can be performed in many different ways and by various means. For the Multilateral...

Topics: DTIC Archive, FGAN-FKIE WACHTBERG (GERMANY), *INFORMATION SYSTEMS, COMMAND AND CONTROL SYSTEMS,...

The Army's doctrine lies at the heart of its professional competence. It is the authoritative guide to how Army forces fight wars and conduct operations other than war. Never static, always dynamic, the Army's doctrine is firmly rooted in the realities of current capabilities. At the same time, it reaches out with a measure of confidence to the future. Doctrine captures the lessons of past wars, reflects the nature of war and conflict in its own time, and anticipates the intellectual and...

Topics: DTIC Archive, ARMY TRAINING AND DOCTRINE COMMAND FORT MONROE VA, *ARMY TRAINING, *MILITARY...

The present study attempted to improve the appropriateness of confidence with a seemingly nondirective tack. Subjects were asked to sort items into a specified number of piles according to their confidence in the correctness of their answers. Subsequently, they assigned a number of each pile expressing the probability that each item in the pile was correct. Even though this procedure differed from its predecessors in many respects, performance here was indistinguishable from that observed...

Topics: DTIC Archive, Fischhoff, Baruch, DECISION RESEARCH EUGENE OR, *JUDGEMENT(PSYCHOLOGY), *DECISION...

The absence of a trusted computing base for mobile agents poses serious security issues for both the host system and the survivability of the agent. Once a mobile agent is dispatched, asserting anything about the host system, the agent's behavior, or even the agent's existence is difficult to ascertain. In order to employ agents with any degree of confidence, constraints need to be placed on the agent computation since no restraints can be imposed (or assumed) about the host system's hardware...

Topics: DTIC Archive, Kassab, Lora L, NAVAL RESEARCH LAB WASHINGTON DC, *COMPUTER NETWORKS, *FAULT TOLERANT...

According to major public opinion polls, the U.S. military has garnered strong public confidence since the end of U.S. military involvement in Vietnam. Two reasons for this phenomenon are acknowledged: (1) a high degree of professional competence and (2) an appropriate level of political subservience. Professional competence refers to public perception regarding the military's ability to satisfactorily accomplish assigned missions. Political subservience refers public perception regarding the...

Topics: DTIC Archive, ARMY WAR COLL CARLISLE BARRACKS PA, *CONFIDENCE LEVEL, *MILITARY FORCES(UNITED...

Uncertainty in event locations derived from seismic data is caused by errors in the arrival times of picked phases, misidentification of seismic phases, and errors in the travel-time model used in the location process. The event mislocation induced by these error sources is affected by the number and spatial distribution of stations that record an event. This project is developing a statistical framework and computational techniques for accurately analyzing event location uncertainty. Our...

Topics: DTIC Archive, MASSACHUSETTS INST OF TECH CAMBRIDGE, *SEISMIC DATA, ALGORITHMS, SYMPOSIA,...

Most current U.S. nuclear warheads were built in the 1970s and 1980s and are being retained longer than was planned. Yet they deteriorate and must be maintained. To correct problems, a Life Extension Program (LEP), part of a larger Stockpile Stewardship Program (SSP), replaces components. Modifying some components would require a nuclear test, but the United States has observed a test moratorium since 1992. Congress and the Administration prefer to avoid a return to testing, so LEP rebuilds...

Topics: DTIC Archive, LIBRARY OF CONGRESS WASHINGTON DC CONGRESSIONAL RESEARCH SERVICE, *NUCLEAR WARHEADS,...