Thesis advisor, Edward M. Wu, Gerald H. Lindsey

Topics: FATIGUE LIFE, MATHEMATICAL PREDICTION

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Thesis advisor, Edward M. Wu, Gerald H. Lindsey

Topic: FATIGUE LIFE,MATHEMATICAL PREDICTION

Naval Postgraduate School

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Jan 16, 2013
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Gaver, Donald Paul.;Jacobs, Patricia A.

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Topics: WIND., ATMOSPHERE MODELS., MATHEMATICAL PREDICTION.

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Gaver, Donald Paul.;Jacobs, Patricia A.

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Topic: WIND.,ATMOSPHERE MODELS.,MATHEMATICAL PREDICTION.

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Oct 6, 2015
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Gaver, Donald Paul.;Jacobs, Patricia A.

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Topic: MATHEMATICAL PREDICTION.,MATHEMATICAL MODELS.,WIND VELOCITY.

Naval Postgraduate School

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Topics: MATHEMATICAL PREDICTION., MATHEMATICAL MODELS., WIND VELOCITY.

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Topic: MATHEMATICAL MODELS.,COVARIANCE.,MATHEMATICAL PREDICTION.,STATISTICAL ANALYSIS.

Naval Postgraduate School

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Topics: MATHEMATICAL MODELS., COVARIANCE., MATHEMATICAL PREDICTION., STATISTICAL ANALYSIS.

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Lundholm, Steven E.;Robertson, R. Clark.;Borchardt, Randy L.

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Topic: ANTENNA RADIATION PATTERNS.,MATHEMATICAL PREDICTION.,COMPUTER PROGRAM DOCUMENTATION.

Naval Postgraduate School

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Jan 24, 2013
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Lundholm, Steven E.;Robertson, R. Clark.;Borchardt, Randy L.

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Topics: ANTENNA RADIATION PATTERNS., MATHEMATICAL PREDICTION., COMPUTER PROGRAM DOCUMENTATION.

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Gaver, Donald Paul.;Jacobs, Patricia A.

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Topic: KALMAN FILTERING.,TIME SERIES ANALYSIS.,MATHEMATICAL PREDICTION.,APPROXIMATION(MATHEMATICS)

Naval Postgraduate School

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Topics: KALMAN FILTERING., TIME SERIES ANALYSIS., MATHEMATICAL PREDICTION., APPROXIMATION(MATHEMATICS)

Long-term goals are to explore and develop new ideas and methods for error covariance estimation and representation to improve mesoscale data assimilation and numerical weather prediction.

Topics: DTIC Archive, OKLAHOMA UNIV NORMAN, *MATHEMATICAL PREDICTION, *WEATHER FORECASTING, COVARIANCE,...

Topics: DTIC Archive, HORST, PAUL, WASHINGTON UNIV SEATTLE, *APTITUDE TESTS, MATHEMATICAL PREDICTION

The long-term goal of this research is to develop an initialization scheme for a multi-dimensional, predictive aerosol model in coastal regions. The initialization scheme will have global coverage and include data gathering, quality control, and data assimilation of the available aerosol observations, including satellite aerosol retrievals, ground-based remote sensing, point measurements, and the previous aerosol forecast. The model will predict the atmospheric aerosols responsible for...

Topics: DTIC Archive, NAVAL RESEARCH LAB MONTEREY CA, *AEROSOLS, COASTAL REGIONS, MATHEMATICAL PREDICTION

The ultimate goal of this project is to improve the global numerical weather predictions for DOD. This objective is obtained by developing state-of-the-art physical parameterizations for the Navy Operational Global Atmospheric Prediction System (NOGAPS) that clearly demonstrate a superior statistical skill over existing techniques when tested in a data assimilation cycle similar to that used in operations. The objective of this project is to improve the sub-grid physical parameterizations used...

Topics: DTIC Archive, NAVAL RESEARCH LAB MONTEREY CA, *MATHEMATICAL PREDICTION, *WEATHER FORECASTING, ERRORS

We seek to develop radiation parameterizations for Navy models that are computationally efficient and work seamlessly across models at all time and space scales, especially from regional models to global models. We are adapting radiation codes developed for climate models for use in the Navy s global weather forecast model (NOGAPS/NAVGEM), with the possiblity of also introducing them into the limited area model (COAMPS). Our long-term goal is to develop codes that are scale-aware,...

Topics: DTIC Archive, COLORADO UNIV AT BOULDER, *COMPUTER PROGRAMS, *MATHEMATICAL PREDICTION, *WEATHER...

The primary objective was to provide data and techniques which will permit ODDR+E to better appraise development cost estimates on future weapon systems. The initial scope was defined in three parts: (1) A survey and evaluation of cost estimating techniques already developed and sources of pertinent historical data; (2) Collection and analysis of past data; development of parametric estimating relationships; and (3) A plan for enhancing future ODDR+E capability through data collection and...

Topics: DTIC Archive, MANAGEMENT SYSTEMS CORP CAMBRIDGE MA, *WEAPON SYSTEMS, *COST ESTIMATES, MATHEMATICAL...

We are adapting radiation codes developed for climate models for use in the Navy s global weather forecast model (NOGAPS/NAVGEM) and limited area model (COAMPS). Our long-term goal is to develop codes that are scale-aware, computationally efficient across a range of computer architectures, and operate continuously rather than at infrequent radiation time steps .

Topics: DTIC Archive, COLORADO UNIV AT BOULDER, *RADIATION, *WEATHER FORECASTING, CLIMATE, CODING,...

Topics: DTIC Archive, RADNER, ROY, CALIFORNIA UNIV BERKELEY, *ECONOMICS, MANAGEMENT ENGINEERING,...

Actual relationships of human size to strength have remained undetermined despite decades of re search by many investigators because the determination necessitates valid theoretical formulation and selection through three essential crite ria of a proper sample of subjects for empirical testing. The formula is: strength k. Vol. (Wt.)/Ht. Champion weightlifters satisfy all criteria, and, by minor adjustments for sample size and skeletal proportion, specific lifts can be predicted within ounces.

Topics: DTIC Archive, Edwards, William E, EDWARDS (WILLIAM E) COLUMBIA SC, *MATHEMATICAL PREDICTION,...

The long-term goal of this RTP project is to provide the warfighter with superior battlespace environmental awareness in terms of high fidelity four-dimensional (4D) depiction of the global atmospheric state. This situational awareness is a key aspect of information superiority in the DoD's strategic plan to ensure battlespace dominance in the 21st century. This goal is to be accomplished by providing NOGAPS(1) with the best possible set of initial conditions through the use of a next...

Topics: DTIC Archive, NAVAL RESEARCH LAB MONTEREY CA, *MATHEMATICAL PREDICTION, *WEATHER FORECASTING,...

Evidence was sought bearing on the understanding of flare mechanisms necessary for a successful system of flare prediction. Intervals between flares in a given region were studied: the distribution peaked sharply at 80-100 minutes for simple sunspot configurations, with shorter intervals for more complex groups. The hypothesis was favored that flare energy is supplied into a flaring region at a steady rate, but that the flare occurs when it has built up to an unstable level. Manifestations of...

Topics: DTIC Archive, COLORADO UNIV AT BOULDER, *SOLAR FLARES, DISTRIBUTION, MATHEMATICAL PREDICTION,...

A myriad of social media services are emerging in recent years that allow people to communicate and express themselves conveniently and easily. The pervasive use of social media generates massive data at an unprecedented rate. It becomes increasingly difficult for online users to find relevant information or, in other words, exacerbates the information overload problem. Meanwhile, users in social media can be both passive content consumers and active content producers, causing the quality of...

Topics: DTIC Archive, Tang,Jiliang, Arizona State University Tempe United States, social media, algorithms,...

The long term goal of this project is to determine the mesoscale atmospheric predictability and how it relates to synoptic scale uncertainty due to sampling and data assimilation of incomplete samples on the larger scale. The objectives of this research are to determine the ability to numerically predict mesoscale coastal structures in a variety of synoptic scale situations and demonstrate for given small scale structures the time ranges under which they might be considered predictable. The...

Topics: DTIC Archive, NAVAL POSTGRADUATE SCHOOL MONTEREY CA DEPT OF METEOROLOGY, *ATMOSPHERES,...

The goal of this research is to increase our understanding of the theoretical and practical limits on atmospheric predictability to guide the development of new strategies for observing and utilizing data in an optimal manner, including defining the scientific principles for the development of an adaptive observation capability for the Navy's environmental prediction systems. In principle, this adaptive approach could revolutionize the methodology for determining initial conditions for...

Topics: DTIC Archive, NAVAL RESEARCH LAB MONTEREY CA, *MATHEMATICAL PREDICTION, *WEATHER FORECASTING,...

An objective layer of maximum wind (LRMW) analysis technique is described and evaluated. The evaluation indicates that the technique represents a significant improvement over the previously developed level of maximum wind (LMW) analysis technique (Spiegler, D. B., and J. T. Ball, et al., 1965: techniques for objective hemispheric analysis and prediction of the jet stream (AD-622 711)). A categorization procedure for wind profiles that results in nine jet stream categories is designed and used...

Topics: DTIC Archive, TRAVELERS RESEARCH CENTER INC HARTFORD CT, *JET STREAMS, CONFIGURATIONS, MATHEMATICAL...

The paper surveys the present state of the theory of linear, least squares prediction of -variate weakly stationary stochastic processes with discrete time. The emphasis is on logical order. Hence recent developments are described within the context of a general theory rather than chronologically. Methods for computing the predictor are briefly discussed, but purely statistical questions such as the estimation of covariances are omitted.

Topics: DTIC Archive, WISCONSIN UNIV-MADISON MATHEMATICS RESEARCH CENTER, *MULTIVARIATE ANALYSIS, LEAST...

The long-term goals of this research are to provide accurate mesoscale analyses and forecasts of microwave refractivity (M), and to quantify the impacts of refractive effects upon Naval communications and weapons systems. Such refractive effects are of particular importance to strike warfare, ship self-defense, special operations, and potentially to directed energy capabilities.

Topics: DTIC Archive, NAVAL RESEARCH LAB MONTEREY CA, *WEATHER FORECASTING, MATHEMATICAL PREDICTION,...

One goal of this effort is to improve the skill of mesoscale numerical weather prediction (NWP) over coastal regions of complex terrain and to evaluate the effectiveness of high-resolution NWP for civilian and military applications. Other important goals include understanding the structural and dynamical interactions that occur as synoptic weather systems interact with coastal terrain, and the nature of coastal gap flows and other meteorological phenomena associated with coastal orography.

Topics: DTIC Archive, WASHINGTON UNIV SEATTLE DEPT OF ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES, *COASTAL REGIONS, *MATHEMATICAL...

The long-term goal of this project is to maintain the leading edge of the Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) models by improving the existing US Navy mesoscale atmospheric forecast model, the Coupled Ocean/Atmosphere Mesoscale Prediction System (COAMPS 1) and, at the same time continue developing the next generation model with an ability for prediction across spatial and temporal scales. There are two main objectives, one for each target. First, to continue development of the next generation...

Topics: DTIC Archive, NAVAL RESEARCH LAB MONTEREY CA, *MATHEMATICAL PREDICTION, *WEATHER FORECASTING,...

Topics: DTIC Archive, Carson, Daniel H, *INTELLIGIBILITY, *AUDITORY PERCEPTION, TEST METHODS,...

The long-term goal of this project is to develop robust global and mesoscale ensemble analysis and forecast systems that are able to provide probabilistic forecast guidance in an operational environment. Although most operational centers rely solely on single deterministic forecasts from numerical weather prediction models, recent advances in probabilistic prediction, or ensemble forecasting, have made this a very powerful tool for providing more complete input on environmental conditions,...

Topics: DTIC Archive, NAVAL RESEARCH LAB MONTEREY CA, *MATHEMATICAL MODELS, *WEATHER FORECASTING,...

This report presents results and equations for the 12-, 24-, and 36- hr prediction of anticyclone displacement and change in central pressure for the Northern Hemisphere. Separate sets of equations were derived for each of six areas. These equations yielded results that were generally superior to climatology when tested on independent data. The technique employed is similar to that used previously in deriving cyclone equations, i.e., it features a movingcoordinate grid system for predictor...

Topics: DTIC Archive, UNITED TECHNOLOGIES CORP HARTFORD CT, *ANTICYCLONES, AIR MASS ANALYSIS, CLIMATE,...

A theoretical method, which requires the use of a digital computer, was developed to predict pressure distributions on an airfoil in an inviscid two-dimensional nonuniformly sheared flow. The theory is applicable to airfoils of arbitrary profile and to nonuniformly sheared flows which can be represented by segments with linear velocity profiles. To test the developed theory, aerodynamic characteristics of an airfoil were investigated both theoretically and experimentally in a relatively simple...

Topics: DTIC Archive, CORNELL AERONAUTICAL LAB INC BUFFALO NY, *AIRFOILS, EXPERIMENTAL DATA, MATHEMATICAL...

The long-term goal is to investigate, develop, and implement the ability to analyze and predict the tropical cyclone (TC) structure and intensity, and to reduce the occurrence of large-error track forecast through the use of high-resolution numerical prediction systems and satellite observations.

Topics: DTIC Archive, NAVAL RESEARCH LAB MONTEREY CA, *TROPICAL CYCLONES, INTENSITY, MATHEMATICAL...

The present study proceeds along both theoretical and empirical lines. First an attempt is made to work out some of the consequences of regression theory for reduced-rank models. Since, as noted above, there is reason to question the appropriateness of regression theory for psychological prediction problems, and empirical comparison of five reduced-rank procedures is also carried out. The methods used were predictor elimination, predictor selection, the method of approximating the...

Topics: DTIC Archive, Burket, George R, WASHINGTON UNIV SEATTLE, *LEARNING, *RETENTION(PSYCHOLOGY),...

Studies are made of flare light curves compared to x-ray data, and for very early evidence of a preferred longitude for solar activity. Attention is also given to basic principles of flare radiation and sunspot growth.

Topics: DTIC Archive, COLORADO UNIV AT BOULDER, *SOLAR FLARES, CORRELATION, MATHEMATICAL PREDICTION,...

The exact mathematical formulation is derived for the expected proportional coverage of a circular target from n weapons all aimed at the center of the target. It is assumed that the weapons fall in a circular normal distribution and that the lethal area of each weapon is a circle of specified radius (cookie-cutter lethality function). Tables are presented which are based on this formulation and which were computed on an IBM 7030 (STRETCH) computer. The computing time per case for overages...

Topics: DTIC Archive, NAVAL WEAPONS LAB DAHLGREN VA, *TARGET ACQUISITION, *MATHEMATICAL PREDICTION, DAMAGE,...

In response to Air Weather Service requirements, the Air Force Geophysics Lab has been involved in research in the development of mesoscale advection fog prediction techniques. A two-dimensional fog prediction model developed at the Naval Environmental Prediction Research Facility (NEPRF) was selected for evaluation because it can operate on a mini-computer of the size planned for the Air Force's Automated Weather Distribution System (AWDS). Six case studies developed by Calspan Advanced...

Topics: DTIC Archive, Weyman,J, AIR FORCE GEOPHYSICS LAB HANSCOM AFB MA, *FOG, MATHEMATICAL MODELS,...

The role of the digital computer in scientific research is studied. Stressed are problems of predition and of system identification.

Topics: DTIC Archive, RAND CORP SANTA MONICA CA, *DIGITAL COMPUTERS, *MATHEMATICAL PREDICTION, COMPUTERS,...

An analysis based primarily on computations is conducted to determine errors in a bombing system similar to that currently under test and development by the Marine Corps. There are many parameters in the system determining point of impact. Included are point of release and velocity at that point, air density, the mass and drag coefficient of the bomb, its cross sectional area, and the wind structure. Most values are not known with the desired accuracy but are estimated, say, from radar...

Topics: DTIC Archive, Chambless,Ronald, NAVAL POSTGRADUATE SCHOOL MONTEREY CALIF, *NUMERICAL ANALYSIS,...

Resource allocation problems occur in many applications. One example is bike-sharing systems, which encourage the use of public transport by making it easy to rent and return bicycles for short transits. With large numbers of distributed kiosks recording the time and location of rental transactions, the system acts like a sensor network for movement of people throughout the city. In this thesis, we studied a range of machine-learning algorithms to predict demand (ridership) in a bike-sharing...

Topics: DTIC Archive, Kang,Shian C, Naval Postgraduate School Monterey United States, algorithms, machine...

The goal of this research is to characterize the diurnal evolution of the microphysics of the marine boundary layer stratus in order to advance our knowledge on this topic and to improve numerical prediction of the diurnal evolution in stratus microphysical structure.

Topics: DTIC Archive, *BOUNDARY LAYER, *MARINE ATMOSPHERES, *STRATUS CLOUDS, DIURNAL VARIATIONS,...

The long-term goal of this project is to integrate two state-of-the-art technologies, the phased array weather radar (PAR) and the emerging Ensemble Kalman Filter (EnKF) data assimilation method, to optimize the radar performance and improve coastal and marine numerical weather prediction (NWP).

Topics: DTIC Archive, OKLAHOMA UNIV NORMAN, *METEOROLOGICAL RADAR, KALMAN FILTERING, PHASED ARRAYS, WEATHER...

A class of choice-situations is indicated in which many otherwise reasonable people neither wish nor tend to conform to the Savage postulates, nor to the other axiom sets that have been devised.

Topics: DTIC Archive, Ellsberg, Daniel, RAND CORP SANTA MONICA CA, *PROBABILITY, *DECISION THEORY, DECISION...

The long-term goal of this research is to construct the Navy s next generation global numerical weather prediction (NWP) model using new numerical methods specifically for distributed-memory computers. To take full advantage of the new computer architectures, the spherical global domain must be partitioned into local sub-domains, or elements, which can then be solved independently on the multiple processors of these computers. The numerical methods used on these sub-domains must be not only...

Topics: DTIC Archive, NAVAL RESEARCH LAB MONTEREY CA, *NUMERICAL METHODS AND PROCEDURES, *WEATHER...

The long-term goal of this project is to integrate two state-of-the-art technologies, the phased array weather radar (PAR) and the emerging Ensemble Kalman Filter (EnKF) data assimilation method, to optimize the radar performance and improve coastal and marine numerical weather prediction (NWP).

Topics: DTIC Archive, OKLAHOMA UNIV NORMAN, *KALMAN FILTERING, *METEOROLOGICAL RADAR, *PHASED ARRAYS,...

We seek to develop a probabilistic description of the evolution of ocean currents and tracer trajectories, in order to improve performance and quantify uncertainty in circulation and forecast models.

Topics: DTIC Archive, INSTITUTE OF OCEAN SCIENCES SIDNEY (CANADA), *MATHEMATICAL PREDICTION, *OCEAN...

This document presents the advances made in three major areas during the 1980 theoretical program in support of the NRL Plasma Radiation group. This support has provided new directions in which to seek quantitative explanation of the wire array radiation pulse and advancements in numerical and computational methodologies. The areas treated in this report are: (1) improvements to the 1-D magneto-hydro-dynamics SPLAT code and development of scaling laws governing the radiative output using this...

Topics: DTIC Archive, Terry,Robert E, JAYCOR ALEXANDRIA VA, *PLASMAS(PHYSICS), MATHEMATICAL PREDICTION,...