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? o 

Kmimi. Foreign Agriculture Circular 

Agriculture ^ ^ 



Foreign 

Agricultural 

Service 



Grains 



FG-i-86 vVorld Grain Situation and Outlool< 

JANUARY 1986 



Some recent press commentary has suggested that it is not realistic either through more competitive prices 
or otherwise, to expect export volume to increase because of major advances toward self-sufficiency in 
importing countries. This month's cover summarizes basic importer country data to show whether any shift 
toward greater self-sufficiency is in fact occurring. 

These countries have been producing more grain than ever before, but self-sufficiency is not based solely 
on increasing production. Wheat and coarse grain harvested area in these importing countries has been 
increasing although at a declining rate. Productivity has been the major factor in rising production 
levels with yields increasing at an increasing rate as new technology has been adopted. Despite these 
increases in area and yield, production has not been able to keep up with the growth in utilization which 
stems from an ever increasing population as well as other factors. These importing countries produced 
about 85% of their wheat and coarse grain needs in the early sixties. This dropped to about 80% in the 
mid-seventies, and in the eighties is down to about 75%. Over the last ten years, production has only 
been increasing at a rate just over half that of utilization. At this stage the data do not suggest that 
the trends are changing. 



GRAIN 1/ SELF - SUFFICIENCY 

IMPORTING COUNTRIES 
(Excluding USSR, Europe, Japan, China) 

UNITS 



UTILIZATION / 



PRODUCTION 




90 



80 



70 



60 



50 



40 



30 



20 



10 - 




PROD 

AS X OF^ 
UTIL , 
(Percent ) 



o 



NET 

DEFICIT 2/ 
(MMT) 



I ' ' I ■ ■ I ' ■ I ■ ' I ■ ' I ' ' I ' ' I ' ' I 



on 



ID 



■s. 
CD 



00 



lO 



YEARS 



YEARS 



Note: Trend lines are calculated for the 1975/76 - 1985/86 base period. 
1/ Total wheat and coarse grain. 
2/ Difference between utilization and production. 



For supporting data, see page 8. 



Approved by the World Agricultural Outlook Board - USDA 



January 13, 1986 



CONTENTS Page 

World Grain Outlook 3 

World Wheat Outlook 4 

World Coarse Grain Outlook 5 

World Rice Outlook 7 



TABLES 

Importing Countries Self-Suf f iciency (Cover Data) 8 

World Summary Tables: Wheat and Coarse Grains, Wheat, 

Coarse Grains, Rice, Corn, Sorghum, and Barley 9-15 

World Wheat and Flour Trade 16 

World Coarse Grain Trade 17 

World Rice Trade 18 

European Community: Grain Supply-Disappearance 19 

Eastern Europe: Grain Supply-Disappearance 20 

USSR and China: Grain Supply-Disappearance 21 

Wheat: Supply-Disappearance for Selected Major Exporters 22 

Coarse Grains: Supply-Disappearance for Selected Major Exporters 23 

U.S.: Wheat and Coarse Grains 24 

U.S.: Wheat, Corn, Sorghum, Barley, Oats and Rye Supply-Disappearance .. 25 

U.S.: Rice Supply-Distribution 26 

World Wheat and Coarse Grain Supply/Demand 27 

World Rice Supply/Demand 28 

World Total Grains Supply/Demand 29 

Weekly Export Prices for Wheat and Corn: U.S., Canada, 

Australia, and Argentina 30 

Selected World Grain Prices, CIF Rotterdam 31 

Selected Weekly Export Prices for Wheat and Corn (Graphics) 32 

Evolution of a Forecast 33 

Footnotes to World Grain Summary Tables 34 



This month a new section has been added to the Situation and Outlook 
Circular. The section, "Evolution of a Forecast", deals with the changes 
in a particular forecast for the previous seven months, allowing the 
reader to follow this evolution and the factors impacting it. 



2 



**WORLD GRAIN SITUATION/ OUTLOOK** 



This month's developments in the world grain situation include: 



— Lower export prospects for U.S. wheat, down 1.4 million tons on a June/May 
year . 

— A significant increase in the EC barley export forecast up 500,000 tons to 
6.5 million tons because of currently aggressive sales. 

— A larger corn import forecast for Brazil, increased to 2 million tons for 
1985/86 (April/March). 

— A sharp drop-^'n Argentine corn exports, down 700,000 tons to 8,3 million tons. 

— The 200,000 ton decline in the Argentine wheat export forecast as exportable 
supplies are lowered. 

— Improved export prospects for Australian v/heat. 

— A half-million ton increase in the Venezuela sorghum import forecast as a 
result of lower crop prospects. 

— An increase in the Chinese coarse grain export forecast, up 700,000 tons to 
4.3 m.illion tons as evidenced by new, large sales. 

— A calendar year 1986 rice import forecast for Peru of 150,000 tons, due to a 
production s'lortfall of the 1985 crop. 




3 



**WHEAT** 



The 1985/86 world wheat trade forecast is down marginally from last month to 
90.4 million tons. A million ton decline in the foreign crop forecast, 
unchanged world utilization and modestly lower trade resulted in the third 
successive monthly decline in foreign ending wheat stocks, down 5 million 
tons, 6 percent, from the October forecast. Inspite of these declines, world 
wheat ending stocks, including U.S. stocks, are still forecast at 125 million 
tons, 10 million tons in excess of 1984/85. Large world stocks, at least in 
the near-term, are not expected to effect the trend of currently rising 
prices. World wheat supplies have tightened as 1) a large volume of U.S. 
wheat has gone under government loan, 2) prospects for the Argentine crop 
decline and 3) the supply of free-market, bread-quality EC wheat is lowered 
by large movements into intervention stocks. 

MAJOR IMPORTING COUNTRIES 

World wheat demand remains depressed at the lowest level in 5 years. The 
first half of 1985/86 (July/ June) saw lower world wheat prices and a 
surprising lack of buying activity by the major importing countries. For the 
second half of 1985/86, though, these importers are expected to return to the 
market, covering some of the purchases which were earlier deferred. The 
increasing demand, tighter supplies of high-quality wheat and some economic 
recovery should strengthen wheat prices in near-by months. 

MAJOR EXPORTING COUNTRIES 
Argentina, Australia, and Canada 

The 1985/86 (July/June) aggregate wheat export forecast for the three major 
competitors, Australia, Argentina, and Canada, declined modestly this month as 
a lower Argentine export forecast was only partially offset by improved 
Australian prospects. 

A second consecutive decline in the Argentine crop estimate and smaller 
carry^in stocks should mean sharply lower 1985/86 (Dec. /Nov.) supplies, 
lowered export availabilities and strengthened Argentine domestic prices. To 
dampen rising domestic prices the Argentine Grain Board has 1) shifted 1.1 
million tons of government export commitments to private traders and, 2) 
taken back 25 percent of each company's export registrations. The full 
400,000 ton decline in Dec. /Nov. export forecast was not reflected in the 
July/ June decline as Argentine exporters, in anticipation of lower world 
prices following implementation of the recently enacted U.S. farm legislation, 
will probably maximize sales during the first half of 1986. 



The 1985/86 (July/June) export forecast for Australia rose to 15.7 million 
tons reflecting significant sales to the Soviet Union, China and Egypt. The 
Soviet purchase of 2.5 million tons of wheat, half a million tons more than in 
1984/85, makes the Soviet Union Australia's single largest market. Current 
marketing year sales now total 9 million tons, nearly 60 percent of the 
1985/86 forecast. General purpose wheat supplies are forecast lower than last 
month and a million tons of on-farm use, leaves considerably less low quality 
wheat for export. 

EUROPEAN COMMUNITY 

The 1985/86 wheat export forecast for the European Community (EC) remains 
unchanged at 17.5 million tons. As of December 20th, the EC Cereal Management 
Committee has temporarily suspended the weekly export tender in an attempt to 
shift third-country exports from tightening free-market supplies to sales from 
intervention stocks. The EC hopes to draw down intervention stocks (2 million 
tons of which have already been released for third-country export), and dampen 
rising domestic prices by decreasing pressure to export free-market supplies. 
Free-market supplies are unusually tight this year because of 1) lower, 
weather-impacted production, particularly in the United Kingdom, 2) large, 
early season movements into intervention, and 3) aggressive third-country 
exports. As evidence of this aggressive export program, export licenses 
through mid-December are nearly 8.8 million tons, compared to 6.5 million tons 
at this time last year. 

U.S. TRADE PROSPECTS 

The 1985/86 (June/May) wheat export forecast fell nearly 1.4 million tons this 
month to 25.8 million tons. The July/June export forecast was also lowered; 
500,000 tons to 26.7 million tons. Ample competitor supplies and deferred 
purchases by major importers have resulted in lagging U.S. wheat exports. 
However, competitor supplies are expected to tighten in the up-coming months 
and some importers should be returning to the U.S. market. U.S. wheat exports 
as of the end of December totaled 11.5 million tons, approximately 50 percent 
of the wheat exported at this time last year. Notably absent buyers include 
the Soviet Union, China and Bangladesh. Soviet purchases for 1985/86 now 
total less than quarter of a million tons, compared with more than 5 million 
tons at this time in 1984/85. China and Bangladesh with large domestic 
supplies are lagging last year's imports by 1 and 1.5 million tons, 
respectively. 



**COARSE GRAINS** 



The world coarse grain trade forecast is up, the second consecutive monthly 
increase in the 1985/86 forecast. Weather-impacted crops in several Southern 
Hemisphere countries, notably Venezuela and Brazil, have meant increased 
demand for imported corn and sorghum. That increased demand, however, may be 
partially offset by large global surpluses of feed-quality wheat which have 
already influenced world coarse grain markets by freeing Canadian corn and EC 
barley for export. 



5 



M^JOR IMPORTING roUN^RIES 



The only major change in the 1985/86 coarse grain import forecast was a 
500,000 ton increase in the sorghum import forecast for Venezuela , reflecting 
smaller domestic supplies caused by a short crop. The marketing year (April/ 
March) corn import forecast for Brazil was raised to 2 million tons, 
reflecting a continued strong purchasing pace. 

MAJOR EXPORTING COUNTRIES 

Argentina, Australia, Canada, South Africa, and Thailand 

The major competitor export forecast declined half-a-million tons because 
sharp declines in Argentine corn and Australian oat export forecasts which 
were only partially offset by a small increase in Canadian corn exports. The 
1985/86 corn export forecast for Argentina fell 700,000 tons, following 
further cuts in the 1986 crop forecast, which should mean reduced export 
availabilities. Nearly all of the corn planting is completed but the late 
planting will likely extend the harvest well into March and may adversely 
impact yields. 

The Canadian corn export forecast was increased 300,000 tons to nearly a 
million tons as higher domestic wheat and barley feeding is expected to free 
more grain from, the record corn crop for export. Coarse grain exports from 
Australia are down marginally because a poorer crop has reduced oat export 
availabil it ies . 

The corn export forecast for South Africa remains unchanged at 1 million 
tons. Rain during the last part of December has temporarily eased fears of 
another drought- impact ed harvest, but yields will be highly dependent upon 
further moisture during January and February. 

QT-HER EXPOR'^ING COUNTRIES 

Barley exports from the European Community are now forecast at 6.5 million 
tons, up 500,000 tons from last month. The current pace of export license 
authorizations is nearly equal to last year's pace when 7.4 million tons of 
barley were exported for the year. 

The 1985 ^86 forecast for Ch inese coarse grain exports rose 700,000 tons to 4.3 
million tons. The half-a-million ton increase in the corn export forecast 
reflects continuing sales to the Soviet l^nion and other Asian countries. '^he 
sorghum export forecast is up 200,000 tons because of larger exportable 
suppl ies . 



6 



Poor barley crop prospects for Finland and Turkey should result in smaller 
exportable supplies and lower 1985/86 export forecasts. Bulgaria has 
continued to import U.S. corn and EC barley, indicating large domestic needs 
and reduced coarse grain export prospects. The 1985/86 barley export forecast 
for Spain was raised again to 1 million tons following another government 
tender to export 500,000 tons of surplus stocks. 



U.S.^TRADE PROSPECTS 

The 1985/86 coarse grain export forecast for the United States remains 
unchanged at 49.1 million tons. However, strengthened demand for corn and 
sorghum in several South American countries and short Argentine supplies may 
mean improved prospects for these U.S. grains. Lagging Soviet purchases, 4.1 
million tons compared to 6.6 million tons at this time last year, is primarily 
responsible for the slow export movements through December. Corn exports to 
Western Hemisphere countries, notably Brazil, are running well ahead of last 
year. U.S. coraittments to Brazil already total 2.4 million tons compared to 
1^5 million tons at this time last year. Barley exports from the United 
States continue to lag last year in part because of increased availabilities 
of EC and Spanish barley. 



**RICE** 



The 1985/86 world rice production forecast was revised downward by over 5 
million tons this month, to 460 million tons. The decrease reflects a 
significant adjustment in the forecast for the crop in China, with marginal 
decreases in the forecasts for Japan and other countries. 

Growing and harvesting conditions were generally good throughout most of Asia 
over the past month, with notable exceptions in Vietnam and the Philippines 
where rainfall caused interruptions in the harvest. Northern and South 
Central Thailand received above normal rainfall, possibly causing damage to 
late maturing rice there. Coastal areas in Tamil Nadu province of India were 
hit with heavy rain and flooding, causing damage to the maturing winter rice 
crop. 

The estimate for world rice trade in CY1985 was adjusted slightly this month, 
and is now 11.2 million tons. 



The reader should note that adjustments 
on changes regarding the new U.S. farm 
month. New CY1986 trade forecasts will 
Agriculture announces the "world market 
new program. 



to CY1986 world trade forecasts, based 
legislation have not been made this 
not be made until the Department of 
price" for rice as specified in the 



7 



MAJOR IMPORTING COUNTRIES 



Imports by Saudi Arabia are now estimated to have reached only 500,000 tons in 
CY1985, with the same level projected for CY1986. Demand for rice has 
decreased due to the declining number of Asian guest workers in the country. 
Imports by Iraq in CY1985 are now estimated at 470,000 tons, down slightly 
from the previous estimate of 500,000 tons. A poor rice harvest last year 
will cause Peru to import an expected 150,000 tons of rice in 1986. 



MAJOR EXPORTING COUNTRIES 

Exports from Pakistan are now expected to total 850,000 tons in CY1985. 
Thailand is estimated to have exported slightly above 4.0 million tons of rice 
in CY1985. The CY1985 export estimate for Taiwan was also adjusted downward 
slightly. 

U.S.' TRADE PROSPECTS 

Vr^e CY1986 export forecast remains unchanged at 1.8 million tons, although 
this number could change significantly in coming months as the impact of the 
new farm program becomes more certain. 



HHEAT A 


ND COARSE GRAIN SELF - 


SUFFICIENCY 


IN IHPORTING COUNTRIES 1/ 






HIXED HARKETING YEARS 








PRODUCTION 


UTILIZATION 


NET 


PROD AS 


YEARS 


TREND 


TREND 


DEFICIT 2/ 


I OF UTIL 










-Percent— 




Million Hetric 


fons 




1960/61 


124.5 


144.6 




20.1 


86.1 


1961/62 


127.3 


151.1 




23.8 


84.2 


1962/63 


140.4 


160.0 




19.6 


87.7 


1963/64 


139.2 


161.3 




22.0 


86.3 


1964/65 


142.6 


171.3 




28.7 


83.2 


1965/66 


143.2 


173.0 




29.8 


82.8 


1966/67 


144.6 


173.2 




28.5 


83.5 


1967/68 


156.3 


183.7 




27.5 


85.0 


1968/69 


167.9 


192.0 




24.1 


87.4 


1969/70 


168.9 


199.8 




30.9 


84.5 


1970/71 


177.4 


210.7 




33.4 


84.2 


1971/72 


179.6 


210.2 




30.6 


85.4 


1972/73 


175.9 


215.4 




39.5 
53.7 


81. 7 


1973/74 


184.6 


238.4 




77.5 


1974/75 


1B6.9 


237.0 




50.1 


78.9 


1975/76 


206.1 203.7 


245.1 


247.8 


39.0 


84.1 


1976/77 


216.9 208.8 


254.7 


257.4 


37.8 


85.2 


1977/78 


203.6 213.8 


269.1 


267.1 


65.5 


75.6 


1978/79 


217.3 218.9 


279.1 


276.7 


61.8 


77.9 


1979/80 


221.2 223.9 


289.2 


286.3 


67.9 


76.5 


1980/81 


230.6 229.0 


295.5 


295.9 


64.9 


7B.0 


1981/82 


242.3 234.0 


310.4 


305.5 


68.1 


78.1 


1982/83 


230.5 239.1 


310.7 


315.1 


80.2 


74.2 


1983/84 


243.6 244.1 


323.7 


324.7 


80.1 


75.2 


1984/85 


247.3 249.2 


333.2 


334.3 


86.0 


74.2 


1985/86 


259.4 254.2 


344.1 


343.9 


84.7 


75.4 


1986/87 


259.3 




353.6 






1987/88 


264.3 




363.2 






1988/89 


269.4 




372.8 






1989/90 


274.4 




382.4 






1990/91 


279.5 




392.0 







Note: Trend lines are calculated on 1975/76 - 1985/86 base period. 
1/ Excluding USSR, China, Europe and Japan. 
2/ Difference between utilization and production. 



8 



TOTAL WHEAT AND COARSE GRAINS 
TRADE YEARS* 1931/82 - 19S5/36 
(IN MILLIONS OF METRIC TONS) 



EXPORTS 1) 
SELECTED EXPORTERS 2) 
WEST EUROPE 
USSR 
OTHERS 

TOTAL NON-US 
U.S. 3) 



1981/52 


1 9<^2/33 


1983/34 


19^4/35 


1935/86 


1985/S6 










D E 01 2 


J A 1 3 


61 . 7 


61.3 


67. 3 


68.8 


63.2 


67.8 


21 .2 


22.6 


22.3 


29.9 


27.5 


28.1 


0.5 


0.5 


0.5 


1 .Q 


1.0 


1.0 


7.2 


10.0 


9.0 


15.7 


11.9 


12.2 


91.7 


94.6 


99.3 


11 5.5 


10B.5 


10P.0 


107.2 


93. 9 


<?4.7 


93.7 


76.3 


75.8 



WORLD TOTAL 


1 V 7 • 


1 S 3 . 3 


1 O T O 

19 2.9 


^ r\ G *i 


1 ? 4 . 3 


184.8 


IMPORTS 
WEST EUROPE 
USSR 
JAPAN 

CHINA 
OTHERS 


25,0 

23.4 

14.7 
79.5 


20.9 

J \ m C 

24.5 

15.5 
86.9 


19.2 

26.6 

9.8 
97.9 


14.3 

H ? A 

26.3 

A n 

c . u 
7.5 
99.5 


13.1 

7 A n 

26.9 
0 7 

6.8 


13.1 

7 / n 

26.9 
0 n 

6.8 

■ 95.0 


WORLD TOTAL 


197.9 


188.3 


193.9 


209.1 


1 34.3 


1 34.8 


SELECTED EXPORTERS 2) 
Meal sUKUrc 
USSR 6) 

CHINA 

rtTU P 0 € 

U 1 n c K d 


114.0 

1 A 5 9 

152.0 
140.4 


107.0 

172.0 

1 n A 7 

\ U 0 m 1 

150. S 


11R.3 

1 C A 1 

173.0 
1 u c . r> 
174.0 

? A li, ■J! 


114. o 
1 y 1 . 1 
1 59.0 

\ \ J m C 

184.2 

? ^ n 


116.1 

17 7 7 

177.0 

1 n 7 5 

174.2 

"5 A A 5 


115.6 

17 7 7 

177.0 

1 r>A A 

170.9 

5 A 7 7 


TOTAL NON-US 


895.8 


932.4 


973.3 


1014.9 


1013.0 


10D7.7 


U.S. 


322.4 


326.0 


203.0 


307.8 


3^7.2 


336.9 


WORLD TOTAL 


1213.3 


125S.4 


1176.3 


1322.7 


1350.2 


1344.6 


UTILIZATION 4) 7) 
WEST EUROPE 
USSR 6) 
CHINA 
OTHERS 


159.3 
200.5 
154.? 
^?9.0 


157.4 
204.0 
166.4 
5 01.0 


158.4 
206.5 
183.4 
517.3 


161 .6 
207.0 
186.2 
525.2 


164.3 
204.0 
177.3 
540.7 


165.4 
204.0 
173.3 
538.5 


TOTAL NON-US 


100'. 5 


1023.9 


1065.6 


1083.0 


1086. S 


10?1.2 


*U.S. 


177.S 


19^.5 


173.1 


194.3 


200.5 


200.5 


WORLD TOTAL 


1131.4 


1221.5 


1243.7 


1277.7 


12?7.3 


1231 .7 


END STOCKS 4) 3) 
TOTAL FOREIGN 9) 
USSR: STKS CH5 
U.S. 


93.2 
-4.0 

99.3 


06.1 
-1.0 

133.7 


97.6 
3.0 
69. 3 


123.3 
6.0 
89.2 


125.0 
6.0 
1 50.5 


1 23.7 
6.0 
151.6 


WORLD TOTAL 


197.9 


234.8 


167.5 


212.5 


273.5 


275.3 



*: COflSINATION or JUL-Y/JUir=-T^A^- YEARS FOi^WHeAT AND OCTO^ER/S^^T^^R 1^:A15E YEAf^S 
FOR COARSE GRAINS. 

NOTE: FOOTNOTES 1 THROUGH 9 APPEAR ON LAST PAGE OF CIRCULAR. 

SOURCE: PREPARED OR ESTIMATED ON THE 3ASIS OF OFFICIAL STATISTICS OF FOREIGN GOVERN'^ENTS/ OTHEP 
FOREIGN SOURCE MATERIALS^ REPORTS OF U.S. AGRICULTURAL ATTACHES AND FOREIGN SERVICE OFFICERS/ 
RESULTS OF OFFICE RESEARCH/ AND RELATED INFORMATION. 

COMMODITY PROGRAMS/ FAS/ USDA 



9 



WO^LD WHcAT AND WHEAT FLOUR S^D TABLE 
JULY/JUNE YEARS 1931/82 - 1925/»6 
(IN MILLIONS OF 'METRIC TONS) 



EXPORTS 1) 
CANAOA 
AUSTRALIA 
AR3ENTINA 




1931/»2 

17.6 
11.0 




19'^2/S3 1 9 33/ 34 

21.4 21.5? 
5.1 10.6 

7.=; 0,7 


1954/85 

19.4 
16.6 

? n 
0 ■ o 


1985/:6 
DEC1 2 

17.5 
15.4 
6.3 


1935/36 
J AN1 3 

17. 

15.7 
6. f 


SUBTOTAL 




?^.9 




37.3 


42.0 


44.1 


39.7 


'0. P 


EC-1 0 

USSR 
OTHERS 




15.5 




15.6 
0.5 
5 . 6 


15.4 
0.5 
5.2 


17.5 
1.3 
7.3 


17.5 
1.0 
5.5 


17.5 
1 .3 
5.4 


TOTAL NON-L'S 




52.5 




53.7 


63.1 


69.9 


6 3. 


63. ? 


U.S. 3) 




43. ? 




3 9.9 


3«. 9 


3?.1 


27.2 


26.7 


WORLO TOTAL 




101 .3 




9?. f. 


102.0 


107.9 




93.4 


liPORTS 

= c-^J 

USSR 
J A'AN 

EAST EUROPH 

CHINA 

OTHERS 




19.5 

5.5 

32.1 




3.9 
20.2 

5.? 

4.5 
1 ? . 0 
51.2 


3.6 
20. 5 
5.9 
3.3 

9.6 

:> ? . 7 


2.2 
23.1 
5.6 
2.6 
7.4 
62.0 


2.7 
17.0 
5.4 
4.2 
6.5 
55.1 


2.7 

17.0 
5.4 

4.3 
6.5 
54.3 


WORLJ TOTAL 




i::l .3 




^ . r 


1 J c . Q 


107.9 


'3 . ' 


7O.4 


PRODUCTION 5) 
CANADA 
AUSTRALIA 
AR3ENTIN A 

- V " 1 '»/ 

USSR 6) 
EAST EJ^OPE 
CHINA 
INDIA 
OTHERS 




24.-! 
1 6.4 
S.3 
?4.4 

Q 

5 J . 6 
'3-5.3 




26.7 

9 c 

15.3 

5 5.3 

.34,7 

6 8.4 
37.5 
66.9 


26. 5 

C i • ^ 

12.8 

59.2 

79.0 

35.4 

?1 .4 

42 . 

66.0 


21 .2 
IS. 3 
13.2 
76.6 
73.0 
41 .6 
8 7.5 
45.1 
66.4 


23.9 
16.5 
10.0 
66.3 
^3.3 
37.1 
M.O 
i^.3 
71 .2 


23.9 
16.5 
* . 5 
66.2 
33.0 
37.4 
3 6.0 
44.2 
71 .5 


TOTAL NON-US 




372. -S 




4 03.'^ 


425 .0 


443.2 


435.4 


433.2 


U.S. 




75. B 




75.5 


65.0 


7C .6 


65.3 


66.3 






44^.4 




470.1 


49y.9 


513.= 


5 ~ 5 . 2 


'■-34.2 


UTILIZATION 7) 
U.S. 
USSR 5) 
CHINA 
OTHERS 




23.1 
1 C2. 0 

243.7 




24.7 
10 5.7 

31.4 
2 5 6.1 


30.2 
97. 0 
91 .0 
268.1 


31.4 
96 .1 
95.2 
276.6 


3^.2 
-5.0 
92.5 
276.5 


30.7 
9 5.0 
52.^ 
2 76.'= 


TOTAL NON-US 




41 ' 




443.2 


45 6.3 


467 .9 


4 64, 0 


4^>4. 3 


WORD TOTAL 




441 . 5 


— - — " — 


467.9 


4;' 6. 3 


499 . 3 


494.2 


454.2 


z^o sToc<s n 

TOTAL FOREIGN 
USSR: 3T<3 CHS 
U.S. 




- — • .> 

-3.3 

31 . 5 




55.0 
O.C 
41 .2 


62.9 
2.0 
33.1 


76.7 
4.0 
3S.3 


'7.7 
4.3 
47.4 


76.5 
4.0 
4^.3 


-^ORLO TOTAL 








36.7 


101 .3 


11^.5 


12 5.1 


-lot C 

125,5 


NOTE: -OOTNOT-S 


1 r^'ouiH V 


A 5 P A » 


0^^ LA 


3T PA?E OF CIRCULAR. 








SOURCE: PREPARED OR E'iTI^'AT 
FOREIGN SOURCE >^ATERIALS/ R 
RESULTS OF 0 P F I C c 'ESFA'^CH/ 


TO ON THE PAS 
r?cRT5; CP J. 3 
AND EL AT ED 


IS OF OFFICIAL 
. A 3"^ I CULTURAL 
I^iPOR^ATION. 


STATISTICS OF FOREIGN 
ATTACHES AND F0REI3N S 


GOVERNMENTS/ 
ERVIC" OFFICE 


n Tu c p 
R S / 



COMviooiTY 'SO^RA^'S/ FflSr 'JS-^A 



10 



WO^LD COABSE '^'^AINS SiD •!'A=!L = 
(IN MILLIONS OF METRIC TON'35 



EXPORTS 
CANADA 
AUSTRALIA 
ARGENTINA 
SOUTH AFRICA 
THAILAND 

SU3T0TAL 

WEST EUROPE 

CHINA 

OTHERS 

TOTAL NON-U. S. 
U.S. 3) 

WORLD TOTAL 

IMPORTS 
WEST EUROPE 
USSR 
JAPAN 

EAST EUROPE 

CHINA 

OTHERS 

WORLD TOTAL 

PRODUCTION 5) 
CANADA 
AUSTRALIA 
ARGENTINA 
SOUTH AFRICA 
THAILAND 
WEST EUROPE 
USSR 6) 
EAST EUROPE 
CHINA 
OTHERS 

TOTAL NON-U. S. 
U.S. 

WORLD TOTAL 

UTILIZATION 7) 
U.S. 

USSR 6) 

CHINA 

OTHERS 

TOTAL NON-U. S. 

WORLD TOTAL 

END STOCKS 8) 
TOTAL FOREIGN 9) 
USSR: STKS CHG 
U.S. 



19?l/?2 


19S2/B3 


1933/54 


1 5 4 / 5 


1 ' ? 5 / " 6 


1 955/36 










DEC1 2 


JANI 3 


7. 2 


y,^ 


5.5 


3 . 5 


5 . 5 


5 . S 


3.1 


1 . Q 


5.6 


7.3 


6.0 


5.9 


10.3 


11.6 


in.o 


10.6 


12.0 


11 


4.7 


2.3 


0.1 


0.3 


1 .0 


1.0 


3.5 


2.3 


3.4 


3.2 


4.0 


4.0 


2 3. 8 


24.7 


25.3 


24.7 


2'. 5 


?5.0 


4.7 


5.2 


5.4 


10.5 


3 . ? 


9.4 


0.2 


0,1 


0.5 


5.6 


3.6 


4.3 


4.4 


6.? 


5.0 


4.7 


3.9 


3.6 


33.2 


35.9 


36.2 


45.6 


44.3 


45 . 3 


5". 4 


54,0 


55. 5^ 


55.6 


4? . 1 


49 , 1 


56.5 


39.9 


9?. 0 


1 01 .2 


93.2 


04.4 


21 .0 


15.6 


13.9 


10.7 


S. 3 


8.^ 


23.4 


11.0 


11.9 


27.3 


17,0 


17.0 


17.9 


18.7 


20.7 


20.7 


21 .5 


21 . 5 


6.1 


4.9 


4.2 


3.4 


5.0 


5.0 


1 . 5 


2.5 


0.2 


0.1 


0.3 


0. 3 


29,7 


37.1 


41 . 0 


38.3 


41 .2 


41 . 3 


96.6 


<»9,9 


9 2.0 


101 .2 


93. ? 


94.4 


26. C 


26.5 


?0. 9 


22.0 


2i..5 


24 . 5 


6.7 


3.9 


9.4 


9.5 


S.4 




13.4 


17.8 


17.4 


IS. 6 


1^.3 


13.3 


3.? 


4.5 


5.1 


8.5 


3.9 


•3.9 


4. 7 


3.7 


4.2 


4.7 


5.5 


5.5 


37. 9 


93.6 


?6.1 


103."' 


101.1 


101 .3 


72.0 


36.0 


99.0 


3^.0 


94,0 


94.0 


64. S 


72.0 


67.1 


73.6 


66.7 


67.1 


SO. 8 


?2. 4 


02.6 


96.4 




54.9 


153.6 


135.1 


146.4 


149.8 


1 57.9 


156.4 


?23.3 


523.5 


54«^. 2 


571 .7 


573.6 


569 . 5 


246.6 


250.7 


137.1 


237.2 


271.4 


270.9 


769.9 
========== 


779,2 


68 5.4 
„„=== = = = = = = 


835.9 


345.0 


340.4 


154. B 


167.9 


147,3 


163.4 


170.3 


170.3 




93.3 


109.5 


110.9 


109,0 


109.0 


81 . 9 


3 5 . 0 


92.4 


91.0 


3 4 , R 


SO. 5 


404.6 


402.4 


407. 6 


413.2 


429,0 


427.4 


5f 5.0 


535.7 


609.5 


61 5.0 


622,8 


617.2 




r 3 3 . c 




7 7 C / 

f r 0 . H 


7 o T t 


7 0 7 K 


44.7 


41.1 


34.7 


46.6 


45.4 


47.? 


-1.0 


-1.0 


1.0 


2.0 


2.0 


2.0 




97.5 


31 .3 


50.4 


103.1 


1 02.6 


112.9 


13^.6 


66.5 


97.0 


14S.5 


1 U9,0 



WORLD TOTAL 

NOTE: FOOTNOTES 1 THROUGH 9 APPEAR ON LAST PAGE OF CIRCULAR. 

SOURCE: PREPARED OR ESTI^'ATED ON THE 3ASIS OF OFFICIAL STATISTICS OF FOREIGN 5CVERNV=NTS/ OTHER 
FOREIGN SOURCE ,'«'ATERI AL3/ REPORTS OF U.S. AGRICULTURAL ATTACHES AND FOREIGN SERVICE CFFICrPS/ 
RESULTS OF OFFICE RESEARCH/ AND RELATED INf ORf ATION. 



COMMODITY PROGRA^ISa FASr USDA. 



11 











?SD TA = L = 










TP J Dt/ 


o^DDUC-^ION, UTI 


LIZATION AN!) 


?TOC<S 1) 










(TNI fTLLTONS OF 


■METRIC TONS) 








c ft L y 


C A L Y " 


CAL YR 


CAL YS 


CAL 19S6 


CAL 19" 




1932 


1 9S3 


1 9 £4 


1 9'S 


D'CI 2 


J A 'J 1 3 
















5 J R 1 A 


?.7 


C. ? 


0.7 


0.4 


-.5 


C.5 


C H I N i\ 


-i. 5 


D.6 


1.2 


1.0 


3.9 


0.9 




n.3 


0.3 


0.1 


D.C 


D.D 


0.0 


5A<ISTAN 


T d, 


1.3 


1.3 


O.P 


0.9 


0.9 


THAILAN3 


■5.6 


3.7 


4.5 


4.C 


4.3 


4.3 


0TH£S3 




?.5 


?. 9 


3.1 


3.0 


3.C 


TOTAL NO-J-'JS 
U. 3. 

WO?LJ TOTAL 




9.6 


10.4 


9.3 


'.6 


9.6 




2 . 3 


2. 1 


1.5 


1 . P 


1 . 5 


11. S 


11.9 


12.6 


11.2 


11.4 


11.4 



IMPORTS 2) 



EC-10 








1 . 2 






1 .0 




1.1 








1.1 




1 .0 




1 . J 


INOON; 31 A 








D.3 






1.2 




0.4 








0.0 




o.c 




0.0 


IRKS 








0. 6 






0.7 




0. 7 








0.7 








0.3 


IRAQ 








0.4 






0.5 




0.5 








C.5 




0.5 






OR£A/ RE'. 














0.2 




0. 0 








CO 




0.0 




0.0 


NIGERIA 








o!7 






0.7 




0.4 








0.5 




1.5 




0.5 


SAUDI ARA!?IA 








0.5 






0.5 




0.5 








0.5 




0.5 




0.5 


OTHERS 








? . 0 






7.2 




S. 9 








7.9 




3.0 




8.0 


WORLD TOTAL 








11 . ? 






11.5 




12.6 








11.2 




11.4 




11.4 










1 9 c" 1 / B 2 






1 9S2/'3 




1 9?3/ 


S4 






1954/55 


1925/36 


193 5/8 6 


PkOOJCTIOS 3) 




































AR3E'^TI'iA 








0.4 






0.3 




0.5 








0.4 




0.4 




0.4 


AUSTRALIA 








0.9 






0.5 




0.6 








0.9 




0.7 




0.7 


BANGLADESH 








2D.S 






21.3 




21.8 








22.0 




22.5 




22.5 


3RAZIL 








9 . 2 






7. S 




9 . 0 








9.0 




9.0 




9.0 


3UR1A 








14.1 






14.4 




14.4 








14.6 




14.5 




14.5 


CHINA 








144.0 






161.2 




1 6 " . 9 








17?. 3 




172.3 




1 67. 0 


EC-ID 








1.1 






1.1 




1.1 








1.1 




1.2 




1.2 


INDIA 














70.7 




90.2 








88.0 




90.0 




90. 0 


INDONESIA 








32." 






33.6 




35.3 








36.3 




33.7 




36.7 


JAPAN 








12.3 






12,? 




13.0 








14.3 




1 4.3 




14.6 


KOREA/ REO. 








7.1 






7.3 




7.6 








5.0 




7.9 




7.9 


PAKISTAN 








3.1 






'.2 




5.0 








5.2 




4.8 




4.8 


THAILAND 








1 7. S 






16.9 




19.5 








18.3 




19. 9 




19.8 


OTHERS 








5?.' 






59.4 




61 . 3 








62.7 




63.7 




63.6 


TOTAL NON-US 








i ' "i . i 






412.6 




44S. 2 








461 .3 




460.0 




454.7 


U.S. 








«.3 






7 C 
• ■ w 




4 . 5 








6. 3 




6.0 




6.2 


WORLD TOTAL 








412.'' 






419.5 




452.7 








467.6 




466 .0 




460.9 


UTILIZATION ?) 


































3AN3LADESH 








14.1 






14.6 




14.9 








14.9 




15.4 




15.4 


CHINA 








1 C 0 . 5 






112.4 




117.1 








123.9 




119.6 




116.1 


INDIA 








5i.1 






43.5 




5'.. 2 








57.0 




58.8 




59.3 


INDONESIA 








22.3 






23.7 




25.3 








25.1 




26.0 




26.0 


<OREA/ REP. 








5.4 






5.3 




5 . 5 








5.5 




5.6 




5.6 


OTHERS 








f 2.= 






33.2 




f 5.3 








85. S 




33.0 




87.9 


TOTAL NON-JS 








27^>.2 






2?7.6 




306.4 








312.2 




31 3.4 




31C.3 


U.S. 








2. 2 






2.0 




1.3 








1.9 




1.9 




1.9 


WORLD TOTAL 








251 . 5 






2»o. 6 




303. 1 








314.1 




315.3 




312.2 


END 3T0C'<S 4) 




































BAN3LADESH 








0.3 






0.3 




0.1 








0.5 




0.3 




0.3 


INDIA 








5.0 






3.5 




6.0 








7.5 




8.0 




8.0 


INDONESIA 








2.3 






1.B 




1.6 








2.8 




2.7 




2.7 


KOREA/ RE3. 








1 .4 






1.5 




1.3 








1.4 




1.5 




1.5 


THAILAND 








1.3 






0.8 




1.1 








1.0 




1 .4 




1.5 


OTHERS 








9.3 






7.? 




5.7 








6.4 




6.6 




6.4 


TOTAL FOREIGN 








19.7 






15.0 




15.7 








19.5 




20.4 




20.3 


U.S. 








1.6 






2.3 




1 . 5 








2.1 




2.6 




2.9 


WORLD TOTAL 








21 .3 






17.3 




17.2 








21 .6 




23.0 




23.1 


1) PRODUCTION 


IS 


ON 


poj;m 


3ASIS; TRADE 


/ 


UTILIZATION 


AND STOCKS 


ARE ON MILLED PASIS. 






2) TRADE DATA 


ON 


CAL 


: ■'1 D A R 


YEA5 -ASIS 


• 


























3) THE WORLD 


RICE 


HARVEST 


STRETCHES 


OVE 


R 


6-3 "MONTHS. 


THUS/ 1978/79 


PRODUCTION REPRESENTS 


THE 


CROP 


HARVESTED 


IN LATE 




AN" EARLY 


1 979 


IN THE NORTHERN HEP^ISPHE 


PF 


AND THE 


CROP 


HARVESTED IN 




EARLY 1975 


IN 


THE 


SOUTHEPM ME*ISPH=3E. 
























4) STOCKS DATA AR 


E S ED 


ON AV A'-'.OE 


3AT 


c 


OF DIFFFR 


ENT 


LOCAL 


MARKETING YEARS 


AND 


SHOULD 






NOT ?E CON 


3TRU 


"D 


AS 5£ 


=RES"NTIN3 


WORLD 


STOCK LE 


VFL 


f AT A 


FIXFD 


POINT IN 


TIME. 


STOCKS 


DATA 




ARE NOT AVAILA3L= 


FOR 


4LL COUNTCI 


• ? 


AN'C EXCLUDE 


TH 


OSE SUCH 


AS 


NORTH KOREA AND 


CHINA. 






SOURCE: PREPAR 


ED C 


0 E 


STI-'ATED ON T^E 


BASIS 


OF OFFIC 


lAL 


STATISTICS 


CF 


FOREIGN 


G0VERN1ENTS/ 


OTHER 


FOREIGN SOURCE 


"AT 


ExIALS/ 


REPORTS Of 


U.S 


• 


AGi^IC JLTJPAL 


ATTACHES 


AND 


FOREIGN 


SERVICE OFFICERS/ 





RESULTS OF OFFICE RESEARCH/ AND RELATED INFORMATION. 
COi/iODITY OPOGRI-'S/ FAS/ U 3 D t 



12 



WORLD 

0CT05E!^/SEPTHV3 
(IN ^^TLLI 



CORM S*D TA3L^ 
ONS 0= ^•;tTOIC TOM?) 



l7?1/^2 1':.2/g? 19S3/?4 15^4/-5 19^5/?6 105^5/8^ 

EXPORTS 



A.^GE \T IN A 




t . 5 


5 . 9 


7.1 


?.o 


*<.3 


SOUTH AT 0,1 C A 


4.7 


?. 3 


n.1 


0.1 


0.9 


n 0 
*- . ' 


T H A I L A ;i 0 


3 . ? 


. 1 


3 . 1 


? . * 


3 . 6 


3.6 


CHINA 


0.1 


0. r 


n. 4 


. ?. 


3.3 


4.0 


OTHiRi 






3 . 7 


4,0 


. 7 




TOTAL NO'^J-U.?. 


1 


1 5 . 


13..? 


19.3 


?0 . 7 




U.;. 3) 


5 0.0 


47.5 


47, <i 


4 . 7 


i'l . 3 


41 . 


WORL? TQ-^AL 




5?. ^ 


6n. 5 


6 6.0 

~~~~-~ = ~~~-'=~ = -^' 


3 ? . 0 


^1 ." 


I P 0 R T $ 














"1 1- X I C 0 


- ^ ^ 


4.: 


. 3 


1 .7 




3 . Z 


EC-1 D 






4.3 


3.? 




3.3 


'J3SR 


1 : . 4 


6. 5 


9.3 


?0. 3 


12.1 


1 ? . 1 


J A^Aij 


15.3 


14.5 


U.5 


14. G 


13.0 


15.^ 


£AST iU^.O^Z 


4. ^ 


3.3 


1 . 9 


1 . 5 


'> ^ 
■ »' 


2.5 


CHINA 


1 . ? 


1.4 


n.1 


" .1 


0.1 


~ 1 
> . 


T A I W ^ N 


? . 6 


3. ? 


3.0 


3.1 


3 . 2 


3.2 




if ■ r 


3.9 


3. ' 


3.1 


^.3 


' 3.3 


S^'AIM 


6 


""i 

S' • w' 


3 . 5 


3.4 


? . 3 


n • .'^ 


PO'^TJoAL 


2 . 'i 


2. ? 


2 . 1 


1 .3 


1 . ? 


1 . 2 


0TH!;R; 


1 : . ' 


1 A . 1 


15.? 


13,1 


1^.6 


1 . 4 


■•iO^LO T 0 T L 


i 7 . i 


63.4 


60 . 5 


6 6 . 0 


62 


61 . 


P R 0 0 u c r 1 0 N 5 ) 


















19.5 


?1 .0 


21 . ^ 


20." 


19.0 


:1 £ X K j 


12.5 


7 . : 


-5.3 


- .9 


1 0 . 0 


10.0 


A R i E SI TI N' A 






V. 2 


11.5 


11 . = 


11 . ^ 


SOUTH AFRICA 


3.4 


4.1 


4.4 


7. " 




= n 


THAILA\'^ 




. ^ 


3.9 


4.3 


'■.1 


3.1 


£ C - 1 0 


1 • . 4 


1 ^ . " 








21.3 


USSR S ) 


. ■ 


13. ■ 




1 ?.5 


1 ^. ^ 


1?.5 


EAST tURO^a 




3 6.3 




3 5.3 


31 . < 


51 . ^ 




5 V . 




6 . 2 


7? .4 


63.3 


64.0 


OTHERS 


■'7.7 






6 5.1 




67.7 


TOTAL 10M-L'.,?. 




.' . 


? 3 9 . ■> 


? 61 . 6 




251 .6 


0.3. 


n f, - 
1. ^ . ^ 


7 "1 3 T 
J ■■ . ■- 


10 6.3 


4 . 5 


2-1.4 


ciA .4 


^3kLJ T0T2>L 


4 - y • 5 


4 ? , 7 


3 45 


45t .1 




4 73 . 0 


JTILI2ATI01 7) 














iiiST EURO''*? 








«/ f ■ ^ 


■^4.1 




UiS? 6) 


■ . 


19.3 


?0. 7 


3 c: • c 


24.6 


24.6 


J APAM 


13.^. 


14.? 


14.5 


14.1 


14.3 


14.3 


CHINA 


■ '.- 


6 ? . : 


6 7.3 


6r.3 


62.6 


cO.1 


OTHERS 


1 C. , , c 


1 * a ^ 


1^1 7 


1 " - ' 


-If-) -> 




TOTAL MOM-U.j. 


■J ' . 5 


??1 . 3 


2 8 5 , 


30 3.4 


?'5,".3 


2V3. 1 


U.S. 


1 27. ^ 


1 37.7 


119.6 


151.? 


13 7.7 


137.7 


.^0:^L3 TOTAL 


<.1~.0 


41 ^. J 


4 0 9 . i 


4 5 4.6 


4 3 . 0 


4 ? 0 . 


tAD STOCXo ') 














TOTAL FO^^IoN -) 


? 1 . i 


17.7 


U. ; 


n . 4 


17.^. 




U. 3. 




7-. 5 


13.4 


5S.0 


77. 5 


77. =• 


.^JOi^LO TOT'^,L 


7 5.*^ 


96.5 


3 2.9 


54. i 


'^5.3 




NOT=: F00T-">ICT5S 1 


T M 5 C- IJ , 4 - 


CN LAST P^GE 


OF CT'CULAR. 









SOJRC = : PR-:P1RID 0-; ??TmT-^ O'J TH3 :^ASI0 of official statistics of F0R = TS?J GOVHP.N^EN^i/- CTH3- 
F0^cI5''i 50JSC3 '■U-"^IALS/ RiPu^TS OF U.«:. AGRICULTURAL ATTACHES A.'nI: FOPriGN ?cRV:C3 0=rIC:RS/ 
RESULTS OF CFFIC3 USHARCH/- AO f:L*T3D I N = 0 ^ A T I 0">I . 



CO^-^ODITY ?-\Oyi\^if FAS/ U^DA 

13 



WQBLD SORGHUM SSD TA3L^ 
OCTOBER/SEPTE'^SER YEAPS 19«1/^2 - 19S5/S6 
(IN MILLIONS OF «ETRIC TONS) 





1931/?2 


1 yS2/.^3 


1 9S3/84 


1984/35 


19S5/P6 


1955/96 












DZC1? 


JAN13 


EXPORTS 














AUSTRALIA 


1.2 


0.3 


1.4 


1.2 


1.0 


1.0 


ARGENTINA 


5.2 


4.9 


4.5 


3.4 


2.S 


2.5 


OTHERS 


0.9 


1.0 


^.6 


1.1 


0.8 


1.2 


TOTAL NON-U. S. 


7. 4 


. 2 


6.9 


5 . 6 


4.6 


5.0 


U.S. 


6.3 


5.4 


6.2 


7.6 


7 . 0 


7.0 


WORLD TOTAL 

twin w 


13.7 


11.6 


13.1 


17.2 


1 1 . c 


12.0 


IMPORTS 














USSR 


2.9 


2.3 


1 . 9 


1 . 5 


1 . 5 


1 . 5 


J APAN 


2.0 


2.7 


4.2 


4.6 


4 . 6 


4.6 


MEXICO 


C.o 


3.2 


3.3 


2.5 


2.0 


2.0 


VENEZUELA 




0.4 


0.2 


1-C 


0.7 


1.2 


TAIWAN 


o.s 


0.6 


0.6 


0.5 


0.6 


0.6 


KOREA/- REf». 


0.4 


0.2 


0.4 


G.3 


0.3 


0.3 


SPAIN 


1.5 


0.3 


0.3 


0.2 


0.2 


0.2 


P0RTU3AL 


0.2 


0.2 


0.1 


0.0 


0.0 


0.0 


SAUDI ARA3IA 


3.9 


0.6 


0.3 


0.2 


0.3 


0.3 


ISRAEL 


0.4 


0.3 


0.6 


0.5 


0.7 


0.7 


OTHERS 


1 .S 


0.7 


0.7 


1.8 


0.6 


n.5 


WORLD TOTAL 


13.7 


11.6 


13.1 


13.2 


11.6 


12.0 


PRODUCTION 5) 














AUSTRALIA 


1.3 


1.0 


1.9 


1.3 


1.5 


1.5 


ARGENTINA 


«.C 


7.6 


7.2 


5.9 


5.5 


5.5 


SOUTH AFRICA 


D.3 


0.2 


0.5 


0.6 


0.6 


0.6 


THAILAND 


0.3 


0.2 


0- 3 


0.3 


0.4 


0.4 


MEXICO 


4.0 


2.S 


4.0 


4.1 


4.1 


4.1 


INDIA 


12.1 




MA ^ 

1 1 . 


11.3 


11.5 


10.5 


CHINA 


6.6 


7.D 


5^.4 


3.2 


7.7 


7.0 


j>JIGERI A 


3.7 


4.1 


2. 7 


3.7 


4.0 


A n 


SUDAN 


3.3 


1.9 


1 


1.2 


2.7 


4.5 


OTHERS 


3 . 4 


5.3 


9 


7.9 


'.0 


3. ? 


TOTAL NON-U. S. 


43.0 


43.9 


46. 5 


44.5 


46.9 


46.9 


U.S ■ 


22.2 


21.2 


12.4 


22.0 


23.6 


2?. 6 


WORLD TOTAL 


70. 3 


65.1 


58.9 


66.5 


75.6 


75.5 


UTILIZATION 7) 














U.S. 


11.2 


13.1 


9.9 


13.9 


14.5 


14.5 


USSR 


3.4 


2.9 


2.0 


1 . 5 


1.5 


1.5 


CHINA 


6.6 


6.9 


S.3 


7.8 


7.5 


6.7 


MEXICO 


6.8 


6.1 


6.3 


6.4 


6.5 


6.5 


JAPAN 


3.6 


2.3 


3.7 


4.7 


4.6 


4.6 


OTHERS 


34.5 


31.9 


31 .3 


32.1 


34.1 


34.0 


WORLD TOTAL 


66.0 


63. ? 


62.0 


66.4 


6S.7 


67..? 


END STOCKS S) 














TOTAL FOREIGN 


4.P 


3.4 


4.1 


3.7 


3.4 


4.? 


U.S. 


7.5 


10.2 


6.4 


6.P 


14.0 


14.0 


WORLD TOTAL 


12.3 


13.6 


10.4 


10. 6 


17.4 


18.3 



NOTE: FOOTNOTES 1 THROUGH 9 A«»PEAP ON LAST PAGE OF CIRCULAR. 

SOURCE: PREPARED OR ESTIMATED ON THE 5ASIS OF OFFICIAL STATISTICS OF FOREIGN GOVERW"^ENTS/ OTHER 
FOREIGN SOURCE MATERIALS/ REPORTS OF U.S. AGRICULTURAL ATTACHES AND FOREISN SERVICE OFFICERS/ 
RESULTS OF OFFICE RESEARCH/ AND RELATED INFORMATION. 

COMMODITY PROGRAMS/ pAS> USDA 



WORLD 5ARL5Y SSD TA8LF 
0CTOBER/SFPTEM3ER YEARS 1981/32 - 1965/86 
(IW >IILLIONS OF METRIC TONS) 



EXPORTS 
CANADA 
AUSTRALIA 
-C-10 
OTHERS 


1.7 

■ m J 

1.3 


19^2/83 

6.1 
0.6 
3.9 
1.9 


1983/34 

4.2 
3.7 
3.8 
1.5 


1984/85 

2.6 
5.3 
7.2 
2.7 


1935/86 
DEC1 2 

4.5 
4.5 
6.0 
2.9 


1955/86 
JAN13 

4.5 
4.5 
6.5 
2.8 


TOTAL NON-'J.S. 


1 ^.O 


12.5 


13.3 


17.8 


17.8 


18.2 


U.S. 


2 . 0 


1.0 


2.1 


1 .3 


0.8 


0.8 


WORLO TOTAL 


14.1 


13.4 


15.4 


19.1 


1S.6 


19.0 


IMPORTS 
EC-10 
USSR 
J APAN 

EAST EUROPE 
SAUDI ARA3IA 
3 P A I i^i 
OTHEPS 


C.5 

3. 

1.5 

1.2 

3.4 

0.7 

■^.1 


0.2 
2.2 
1.3 
1.5 
2.5 
1.6 
4.1 


0.5 
0.5 
1.6 
2.0 
5.1 
0.2 
5.4 


0.1 
4.7 
1.7 
1.7 
5.4 
0.0 
5.6 


0.1 
3.0 
1.5 
2.4 
5.5 
0.0 
6.1 


0.1 
3.0 
1.5 
2.4 
5.5 
0.0 
6.4 


WO^LD TOTAL 


14.1 


13.4 


15.4 


19.1 


18.6 


19.0 


PRODUCTION 5) 
CA>MDA 
AUSTRALIA 
EC-10 
USSR 
CHINA 

EAST EUROPE 
OTHERS 


13.7 
3.4 

l^.Z 
37.5 

1 <.J 
?9.2 


14.0 

41.3 
41.0 
6.9 
17.4 

30.9 


10.2 
4.9 
36.1 
54.0 
6.9 
15.4 
3 0.3 


10.3 
5.6 
44.4 
42.1 
5.6 
18.1 
34.4 


12.3 
5.0 
41.0 
48.2 
5.7 
16.6 
37.4 


12.3 
5.0 
40.3 
48.2 
5.2 
16.7 
36.6 


TOTAL N0M-U.3. 


14^.7 


1 53.5 


157.8 


160.4 


166.2 


164.7 


U.S. 


10.3 


11.2 


11.1 


13.0 


13.0 


12.8 


WORLD TOTAL 


1 57.0 


164.7 


168.9 


173.5 


179.2 


177.6 


UTILIZATnN. 7) 
.^EST EUROPE 
USSR 

EAST EUROPE 
0T4ER3 


4?. 3 
42.3 
17.0 
40.9 


49.5 
44.0 
1 7.3 
41.7 


49.1 
53.8 
16.8 
44.7 


50.4 
44.5 
19.2 
41 .3 


50.6 
50.2 
13.7 
46.4 


50.8 
50.2 
18.8 
44.6 


TOTAL NON-U. S. 


14?. 1 


1 5 3. D 


164.4 


155.4 


165.9 


164.4 


U.S. 


C.1 


3.9 


0.8 


10.3 


10.2 


10.2 


W J K u W 1 J 1 A L 




1 ^ ^ m J 


IT/. 7 

1 r H . 5 


1 it ? y 


1 f 0 . c 




t N D 5 T J C N 5 o P 
TOTAL FOREIGN 
U.S. 


13.7 


15.0 
4.7 


10.2 
4.1 


16.7 
5.4 


17.5 
7.7 


17.5 
7.5 


WORLD TOTAL 


17.0 


19.7 


14. 3 


22.1 


25.1 


25.0 


NOTE: FOOTNOTES 1 


THt^.OUGH 5 A=>^EAR 


ON LAST PAPE OF 


ClPCULA-r. 









SOURCE: PREPARED OR ESTI*^=AT:^ ON th£ paSIS OF OFFICIAL STATISTICS OF FOREISN GOVERNMENTS/ OTHER 
FOREIGN SOURCE ^^ATERIALS/ REPORTS OF U.S. AGRICULTURAL ATTACHES AND FOREIGN SERVICE OFFICERS/ 
RESULTS OF OFFICE 'ESEARCM/ AN^^ RELATED I N F 0 R»^ AT I ON , 



COMMODITY PROGRAMS/ FAS/ USDA. 



15 







WORLD .jHEAT 


AND PLOU^ 


T " A D ^ 










JULY/JU^P YEAR 


S 19=1/6 2 


- 1055/?!6 










(IN THCUSAi^D.'; 


OF f'^ = TRIC 


TONS) 








^ ^ ^ ] / 2 


1 ^ ' Z / S 3 


19 3 3/34 


1 ^ S 4 / .-^ 5 


1 ^ 5 / 6 


1 « 8 5 / " 6 












r CI 2 


J AN1 3 


: X p 0 » T s 














U NI T = 0 STATES 




3 '5 9 3 ? 


3? ?6 0 


38092 


27200 


26700 


CANADA 


17 51 ■;- 


1 5 6 S 


2176 5 


1 94 OC 


1 7300 


1 7500 


A G L N T ! \ A 


4 i(! 5 




^6 61 


3 03 4 


6'!*00 


6600 


AJ3TRALIA 


1 0 ? 3 


1 3 1 


10 5 6 6 


1 6 6 5 0 


1 5400 


1 57 00 


cC-1 3 


15' 0 0 


1 5600 


1 5 40 3 


1 75 00 


1 75 00 


1 7500 


0. W. EUROPE 


-\ >• 

V Z' 1 


1306 


1 2 5 


1 C' 5 0 


11^*^ 


1135 


EAST EU^O=*E 


^ ^ 


'370 


2 2 5 5 


4100 


2 575 


;>575 


USSR 


'03 


?0G 


5 00 


1 030 


1 000 


1000 


TURKEY 


33 7 


^73 


600 


517 


500 


400 


OTHER COJ'^T'IES 


?6 4 


?56 


31 3 


8D1 


1 2 90 


1 293 


-;0RL5 TOTAL 


1 1 1 A 


^ ? 64 4 


1 01 "570 


1079 44 


9 0 9 0 


C3450 


.1 P 0 R T 3 














cC-1 Q 


4 f 7 5 


3 95 0 


3 6 0 0 


2230 


2700 


2700 


0. y. EUROPE 


■ 3 1 6 


1 301 


1764 


1 361 


1590 


1590 


EAST EU.RO'=ȣ 


■? 


45 23 


3757 


2 60 2 


4^500 


4000 


JAPAN 




5795 


5-57 


5 6 0 3 


5400 


5 400 


CHINA 


^ p n 


1 3000 


5 600 


■^400 


6500 


65 00 


USSR 


1^500 


?0?00 


2 05 00 


2 51 OG 


1 7000 


1 7000 


EGYPT 


5 G V 


53 5 0 


6712 


6600 


6 700 


6700 


A L 5 E R I A 


2 1 ' 4 


? 5 4 8 


2*1 4 0 


2500 


2 5 00 


2 5 00 


0 r? 0 c : 0 


2 22 


1331 


21 2 B 


2 45 4 


2300 


2300 


NIGERIA 


1^50 


1500 


1 60 0 


17 50 


1700 


1700 


TUNISIA 




6 9 5 


103 5 


30 


40G 


450 


LI 3Y A 


5 


44 9 


330 


4 00 


400 


400 


SUDAN 




44 


450 


600 


665 


663 


>1EXI CO 


■^00 


0 


566 


400 


300 


300 


BRAZIL 


4470 


3 6 0 0 


394? 


5400 


31 00. 


3100 


CHILE 


9 5 0 


1 c 


1001 


750 


600 


600 


PERU 


?61 


1 006 


?70 


9 80 


1 000 


1 300 


VENEZUELA 


-" ^ 3 


82 6 


92 5 


1028 


1 000 


1000 


C U A D 0 R 


^12 


32 5 


35 * 


360 


380 


380 


BOLIVIA 


151 


202 


25 0 


26C 


270 


2'0 


CU3A 


1 =; 0 J 


1 1 'J 0 


13 00 


13 30 


1 300 


1 300 


COLO ^ ? lA 




57 4 


650 


600 


6 CO 


600 


ISRAEL 


4 50 


62 5 


500 


7 on 


650 


650 


JORDAN 


710 


335 


335 


3 34 


3''0 


390 


L E 3 A N 0 N 


■'4 5 


273 


S7 5 


3 75 


375 


375 


SAUDI ARABIA 


6 S 2 


700 


336 


300 


1 00 


1 00 


SYRIA 


? 9 4 


43 0 


93 s; 


14 00 


9 00 


900 


YErlcNr AR 


^ 5 0 


450 


5 00 


575 


600 


600 


IRAN 


1 377 


1 405 


37 0 0 


3 2C0 


3 300 


3 3 00 


I RA3 


A J ^, 

1 J J 


1 0 


3 0 0 ;) 


30 0 


3 000 


3003 


1 A L A Y 3 I A 


5 i 4 


541 


60 2 


6 3 5 


6 5 0 


650 


VIETNAM 


"> OP 


500 


6 03 


600 


60 0 


6 00 


- A N GLARES ■^ 


1111 


1 500 


1 *?76 


1 S93 


16 00 


1600 


INDONESIA 


1 S^'^ 


1465 


1537 


1150 


1 5 00 


1 "^00 


PAKISTAN 


\ 0 0 


5 "HO 


36 6 


10 36 


1 700 


1 700 


TURKEY 




5 0 


3 5 0 


104?$ 


900 


1 000 


INDIA 


2 26 5 


370 0 


2500 


150 


ion 


1 00 


a R I LANKA 


5 ' ^ 


47^ 


64 ^ 


6 5 0 


5 " 0 


5P0 


KOREA/ PEP. 


1 S 6 S 


1 ? 0 


2351 


3135 


2700 


2700 


PHILIPPINES 






693 


8 20 


300 


800 


TAIWAN 


673 


73 7 


65 5 


7&0 


750 


750 


KOREA/ D?R 


39:3 




500 


'JSO 


500 


500 


SINGAPORE 


I'D 


?0D 


20 0 


?00 


200 


200 


SUBTOTAL 


9 2 6 71 


S ^. ^ 4 


92900 


96364 


^ 2500 


82450 


OTHER COUNTRIES 




510 2 


60 6 4 


6 991 


65 2^^ 


656S 


UNACCOUNTED 1) 


3 40Q 


4 699 


30'^ 6 


4589 


1922 


1 432 


iVOP^LD TOTAL 


101 304 


Q - ^ 4 4 


1 01970 


107944 


90950 


904 5 0 



1) THIS REPRESENTS EXPORTS NOT ACCOUNTED FOR IN REPORTS FRQ-^ IMPORTING COUNTRIES. SIMCE THIS 
13 RECURRING/ IT 15 TAKEN INTO ACCOUNT IN THE AS^ESS^ENT 0^ THE YEA<? AHEAD. 

SOURCE: PREPARED OR E-^TINIATED ON THE 'AST5 OF OFFICIAL STATISTICS OF FOREISN G 0 V F R N»1 E N T / OTHER 
FORtlG'J sour:- •IAT'^RI AL3/ RfORT? OF U.S. AGRICULTURAL ATTACHES AND FOREIGN SERVICE OFFICERS/ 
RESULTS OF OFFICE '■'=^S-^RCH/ AND RELATED INFORMATION. 



COMMODITY ''ROGRA^'IS;/ 



16 







WO^LO COA!»S 


E 3PAIN TRADE 










OCTO V 


tR/S^=*'''c''3E'^ Y 


^'ARS 19*^1/32 - 


1935/S5 










d'^ THOUSAfviDS 


OF f-^ETRIC TON 


S) 








19?1 /3? 


1^*2/53 


1 983/34 


19?4/85 


1985/S6 


1 9?5/S6 












D = C1 2 


J AN1 3 


■ X^ORTS 














UNITED STATES 


5S441 


53990 


5579a 


55592 


49060 


4 00 60 


CANADA 


722 2 


7074 


54?>2 


3515 


5530 


53 30 


ARGENTINA 


1 0 3?? 


11624 


10554 


1 062C 


1 1 965 


1 1265 


AUSTRALIA 


3075 


979 


5555 


7045 


6000 


5900 


EC-1 0 


400G 


42«?'! 


4250 


5000 


65 00 


7000 


0. W. EUROPE 


7?Q 


945 


1153 


2544 


' n n 


2400 


EAST EUROPE 


214? 


3266 


3032 


3004 


2 200 


21 00 


THAILAND 


3512 


2326 


3360 


3245 


4000 


4000 


SOUTH AFRICA 


4701 


2300 


75 


250 


1 000 


1000 


CHINA 


200 


100 


475 


560") 


3600 


4^00 


SUBTOTAL 


94347 


96894 


90040 


99415 


921 55 


92S55 


OTHER COUNTRIES 


2270 


2059 


1947 


1736 


1690 


1 500 


WORLD TOTAL 


96617 


B<?553 


91937 


101151 


93S4 5 


94355 


[MPORTS 














EC-1 0 


8 300 


5650 


5750 


4000 


3700 


3700 


0. W. EUROPE 


1 2696 


9962 


«1 20 


6747 


51 CO 


5100 


EAST EUROPE 


61 4 3 


4S52 


421 ? 


3442 


50 50 


5050 


J ARAN 


1 7^-66 


18 6 93 


20721 


20727 


21 500 


21 500 


CHINA 


1 468 


254S 


231 


150 


2 '0 


2 50 


USSR 


' J U U 


11000 


11 900 


27300 


1 7000 


1 7000 


EGYPT 


1350 


1516 


1 500 


1 700 


1 900 


1900 


ALGERIA 


559 


753 


1 143 


1 1 6? 


5 90 


590 


MOROCCO 


427 


140 ~ 


235 


257 


1 90 


1 90 


TUNISIA 


377 


. 169 


296 


1 7C 


1 SO 


ISO 


SOUTH AFRICA 


130 


767 


2922 


865 


0 


0 


CANADA 


9C4 


750 


31 3 


425 


400 


300 


MEXICO 


1533 


7232 


5B5 6 


421 5 


5030 


5050 


BRAZIL 


IIS 


115 


560 


472 


1 750 


1750 


CHILE 


345 


340 


66 


20 


25 


25 


PERU 


555 


446 


467 


255 


305 


305 


VENEZUELA 


1653 


1 31 ? 


1620 


1 7?5 


1 200 


1700 


JAMAICA 


150 


166 


190 


145 


140 


140 


CU3A 


475 


465 


429 


566 


500 


5 00 


COLOMBIA 


30 2 


304 


1 31 


305 


340 


340 


ISRAEL 


1166 


1 229 


1 0S5 


1035 


1300 


1 300 


LEBANON 


21 6 


225 


1 22 


85 


1 25 


125 


SAUDI ARABIA 


4630 


345 0 


5932 


61 80 


6 5 00 


6500 


SYRIA 


275 


225 


425 


215 


300 


300 


IRAN 


1 030 


1649 


1275 


1 280 


1 500 


1 500 


IRAQ 


42 5 


4S9 


605 


825 


1 000 


1000 


MALAYSIA 


794 


945 


1 139 


1080 


1250 


125 0 


INDONESIA 


2 


191? 


66 


75 


70 


70 


KOREA/ REP. 


3149 


4146 


404 9 


361 3 


3^65 


3865 


PHILIPPINES 


301 


556 


21 7 


365 


350 


250 


TAIWAN 


3 871 


41 50 


39S9 


41 64 


4240 


4240 


SINGAPORE 


460 


490 


474 


650 


450 


450 


SUBTOTAL 


9 21 4 


''•4035 


86101 


04231 


S60?0 


S6 420 


OTHER COUNTRIES 


373? 


441 3 


5550 


6343 


4572 


4757 


UNACCOUNTZD 1) 


695 


505 


336 


527 


3253 


3173 


WORLD TOTAL 


9661 7 


39S53 


91 987 


1011 51 


93 345 


94355 



1) THIS REPRESENTS EXPORTS NOT ACCOUNTED '^OR l)i REPORTS FROM IMPORTING COUNTRIES. SINCE THIS IS 
RECURRING, IT IS TAKEN INTO ACCOUNT IN THE ASSESSMENT OF THE YEAR AHEAD. 

SOURCE: PREPARED OR ESTIMATED ON THE 3ASI> OF OFFICIAL STATISTICS OF FOREIGN GOVERNMENTS/ OTHER 
FOREIGN SOURCE MATERIALS/ REPORTS OF U.S. AGRICULTURAL ATTACHES AND FOREIGN SERVICE OFFICERS 
RESULTS OF OFFICE RESEARCH/ AND RELATED INFORMATION. 



COMMODITY PROGRAMS/ FAS/ U3DA 



17 



WOPLD '.ICE TRADE 
CAL YEAR 19S2 TO 1986 
<I^J THOJSAN-^S OF METRIC TONS) 





C 3 L T 


CAL Y a 




CAL IK 


A 1 ^ 0 C ^ 


CAL 1966 




i r "5 


^ Q S 7 

1 V Q 3 


ISO/ 

1 y 5 H 


1 c r c 

1 y 5 3 


DFC 1 2 


J ANI 3 
















J'NI"^?.) STATi; 




7 7 7 n 

C 3 5 U 


7 1 7 0 


1 0 3 U 




4 0 n r> 

1 S 00 


A ^ G il N T I V a 


o o 




'I H c 

115 


lit 

16 5 


145 


1 45 


A J 5 T ? A L I A 


C 7 


C 3 1 


770 


/no 
A Uu 


c 0 ^ 

3 JU 


ff ri rt 


5 J A 


• I 


7 C 


777 


/ 7 ,0 


C rt A 

5 JU 


e rt rt 

5 00 


C H I T'J A 


A r J 


C S ;T 


1 1 0 0 


1 n 0 0 

1 U'J J 


a 0 n 
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0 rt rt 

900 


TAIWAN 


"T n 7 


5 7 T 


7 1 T 


7 0 

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1 JO 


4 rt A 

100 


: C-1 3 


T ^ 


5 07 


7/7 
74 2 


7 / c 


745 


745 


E 3YPT 


"1 -» 


7 1 


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7 n 

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C rt 

3 U 


K rt 

3U 


S U Y A .^i A 


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A 7 

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3 3 


•7 c 

3 3 


35 


I "^tO I A 


^ 7 "r 

5 3 5 


£ JU 


7 n n 

c U J 


7 7 .7 

2 2 J 


7 rt rt 

2 UU 


7 A rt 

200 


J A ? A N 


31 ^ 


521 


102 


0 


0 


0 


<OREA/' D.=>7 


250 


25D 


250 


250 


250 


250 


i^J£?AL 




n 


20 


50 


25 


25 


PAKISTA^J 




129? 


1 050 


800 


90D 


900 


»hili.-':n."3 




4C 


0 


0 


0 


0 


THAILA.^J; 




3700 


452 S 


4005 


4300 


4300 


URUGUAY 




189 


155 


240 


260 


260 


VliTNA ^ 


15 


140 


150 


50 


50 


50 




■1 1 T 7 7 


■1 1 T 5 /, 
1 1 J 5 'f 


17 017 


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1 U 3 d U 


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1 Q76U 




^ O 


"5 7 r. 

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5 3 A 


0 AU 


6 25 


^ ^ c 
62 5 


-J 0 R L i) TOTAL 




1 1 V 2 *» 


12 5 67 


1 1 1 6 U 
================ 


1 1 3*55 


11335 


VI a ii 3 T "* 
















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J-J -■ 


501 


T A A. 

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T 3 S 

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7 ^ 

333 


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1 1 V 7 


979 




1 u 3 3 


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1 n An 

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7 n n 

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1 n 
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7 7 n 

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7 rt n 


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750 






ATA 
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7 A 9 

305 


7 c rt 
2 3U 


7 5 rt 

2 3 J 


5 e n 


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5 7 « 

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7 1 jC 
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0 


✓ I J A T T 
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0 it 




0 J 


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yu 


*a( A ' A * A * V 


T C 7 


'IOC 




1 7 n 

1 2 U 


4 c n 

150 


4 e rt 

15 0 


MA' A V T ,^ 




7 c 7 

3 5 f 


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10 5 


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50 


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C rt rt 

500 






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no 


7 n 

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103 


85 


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80 


0 n 

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SAUDI AUjIA 


471 


491 


530 


500 


550 


500 


S£>>iE 3AL 


370 


762 


375 


350 


350 


350 


SOUTH AFRICA 


146 


15? 


186 


170 


190 


190 


3^1 LA\<i 


?17 


1 57 


20 


205 


150 


150 


S Y I A 


1 ' ' 2 


120 


133 


130 


1 30 


4 T A 


u.A. .:'^ii;t = 3 


102 


10Q 


120 


130 


140 


140 




859 


323 


150 


150 


1 50 


150 


VI ;t\ia 


150 


30 


300 


400 


400 


400 


SU3T0T 4L 


'A21 


^54^ 


7032 


740t^ 


7420 


7370 


OTHE^ CjUNT^I'-. S 


^ C 0 

2 t ? 3 


^ 0 7 

c r> c > 


363 4 


3500 


3470 


T / 7 A 

5470 


UnIACCOU^jTc? 1) 


SI 0 


"552 


1001 


260 


495 


545 


WJ'.Li) TOTAL 


11'?:. 


11026 


1 2567 


11160 


11385 


11385 


) THIS PE^^iS = NTb =XP0?!T3 


NOT ACCOUNTED 


FOR IN 


REPORTS FROM 


I'^PORTING COUNTRIES. SINCE 


THIS 


IS ^ZCUV'Jr^S IT I" T\< = ' 


i IN<TO ACCOUNT 


IN THE 


ASSESSMENT OF 


THE YEAR AHEAD. 







SOU-^Ct: ■'=>£PA^^D =3TI''^AT = 0 ON THE 3ASI? OF OFFICIAL STATISTICS OF FOREIGN GOVERNMENTS/ OTHER 

"^OREISN 30U^C- "ATERIAL?/ a'-'ORTS OF U.S. AGRICULTURAL ATTACHES AND FOREIGN SERVICE OFFICERS/ 
RESULTS OF OF^KE "^i^tlRCH/ AND -ELATED INFORMATION. 

CO.^'-IO^ITY »=.07=A"'S/ ^a:, US'^A 



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20 



U^S" AMD CHIMA: GRAIM S -l 0 
JH-AT A>J5 C0 4. RS= 'DRAINS 
JULY/JU-'^E YEARS 1'^7'-^/79 - 19S'3/?6 
''TLLTON ■'•ZTRIC TO ,N 3 / H C T A P : 3 







Y II L 15 


o;'0(^UCTION 


JUL/J'JN 


JUL/J'JN' 


'4 = '- 


UTILIZATION 


3T0CK3 




H A ^ V Z S T ; D 






IMPORTS 


L'XPORTS 


I p 0 R T 3 


TOTAL 1/ 


CHANGE 


JS 3 ^ 


















WHEAT A'JD COATS" 


0 ^ ^ I N' ; 
















1 973/7^ 


i?:^.9 


1 . '7 


226.2 


15.1 


2.5 


1'.5 


210.7 


19.0 


1 9 7 P / 3 3 


1 n . 9 


1 .44 


1 71 .3 


30.5 


0.5 


30.0 


214.4 


-13.0 


1 9S0/51 


1 1 . 3 


1.50 


1^8.7 


3 4.0 


0.^ 


33.5 


214.2 


-2.0 


19 31/3? 


117.3 


1 . 3.? 


15 2.0 


45.0 


0 . 5 


44.5 


200.5 


-4.0 


19^2/33 


113.3 


1 .40 


172. G 


31.5 


C. 5 


31.0 


204. 0 


-1.0 


19 3 3/34 


112.0 


1.59 


1 7? ,0 


32.0 


0 . 5 


31.5 


206 .3 


3 . 0 


1?3 4/£5 3/ 


110.3 


1 • 4^ 


159.0 


55.0 


1 .0 


54.0 


207.0 


6,0 


19 33/36 4/ 


10?. 3 


1.64 


177.0 


34.0 


1 . 0 


3 ? . 0 


204.0 


6,0 


WHEAT 


















1 5? 3/79 


^2.9 


1 . v2 


1 20.« 


5.1 


1.5 


3.6 


1 06.5 


18.0 


1 9 ('9/83 


7 


1.^5 


9 0.2 


12.1 


0 . 5 


11.6 


114.? 


-13.0 


1933/31 


f 1 .5 


1 . SO 




1 5.0 


0.5 


15.5 


114.7 


-i.o 


1 9i 1 /32 


f . 2 


1.75 


30.0 


19.5 


0.5 


19.0 


102.0 


-3.0 


1 V 3 2 / y 3 


57.3 


1.30 


S 6 . 0 


20.2 


0. 5 


19.7 


1 05 . 7 


0.0 


19 5 3/34 


5 0.3 


1.56 


7" .0 


20.5 


C . 5 


2C. 0 


97.0 


2.0 


1934/33 3/ 


51.1 


1 .43 


7 3.0 


2 >3.1 


1 . 0 


27.1 


96.1 


4,0 


1 ? i 5/£ 3 ;/ 


5 0.2 


1.55 


'^3.0 


17.0 


1 .0 


16.0 


95.0 


4,0 


CO'V.RSr. 3RAIN3 '/ 


















1973/79 


5-- .0 


1 . i2 


105.3 


0.9 


1.0 




113.2 


1 .0 


1 979/3J 


51 . 2 


1 .33 


81.1 


1 ?.4 




13.4 


99.5 


0.0 


1 930/S1 


57.3 


1 . 39 


50.5 


1 S.O 


0.0 


13.0 


9C.5 


-1.0 


1931/32 


33.0 


1 . 24 


72.0 


25.5 


o.c 


25.5 


9?. 5 


-1.0 


13^2/33 


■^0.0 


1 . 4<:. 


A6.0 


11.3 


G.C 


11.3 


9« . 3 


-1,0 


1 933/ i4 


M . 2 


1 ..S2 


9 9.0 


11.5 


0.0 


11.5 


100.5 


1,0 


1 T J •+ / ^ J / 








i • 7 


0 n 


? A 0 


1 1 T 0 
\ 1 'J . ^ 


C mV 








Oil T 


\ f m V 


v.- . 'J 


1 f . J 


1 no .I 


C mU 


CHINA 


















WHcAT A^JD CO^^SZ 


•3 R A I 'v 3 
















1 9 7 3/7? 




2.12 


132.9 


11.1 


r, 1 

w . 1 


11.0 


143.9 


0,0 


1 9 79/30 




2.31 


14 5.^ 


1 0. 9 


0.1 


10.' 


156.5 


CO 


1930/31 


61 .7 


2.26 


13^.4 


14.6 


0.2 


14.4 


15 4.0 


0,0 


1 9 ' 1 / S 2 


39.4 


2.36 


140.4 


14.5 


0.2 


14.3 


1 54. f 


0,0 


1 3 2 / 3 3 


- 2 


0 . <4 


15 0,* 


15.7 


0.1 


15.6 


166.4 


0.0 


1 5 J 3 / S 4 


5^.6 


2.97 


174.0 




0 . 5 


= .4 


13 3.4 


CO 


19 3 4/33 3 / 


S => . 6 


3.14 


1S4.2 


7. 5 


5 . 6 


1 . ? 


1 5: . 2 


CO 


1935/36 4/ 


35. 


3 . 01 


170.'' 


6.5 


4.3 


2.5 


1 73 .3 


n.Q 


WHEAT 


















1 973/79 


2C.2 


1 .24 


53.^ 


».o 


0.0 


2.0 


61 .9 


0.0 


1979/30 


2^.4 


2.14 


62.7 


■^.9 


CO 


' . 9 


71 . 6 


0.0 


19.S0/51 


■>■> ■> 

m -~ 


1 5 0 


5 5. i 


13.5 


0.0 


13.3 


69.0 


0.0 


1 931/32 


2=<.3 


2.11 


5 9.6 


13.2 


0.0 


13.2 


72 .S 


CO 


19 3 2/33 


27.9 


2.45 


6 a. 4 


13.0 


0.0 


13.0 


?^ .4 


0.0 


1 9 3 3/34 


? 9 . 0 


2.?0 


81.4 


9, 6 


0.0 


9.6 


«i .0 


0,0 


19 3 4/33 3 / 


29.6 


2.97 


87. 8 


7.4 


0.0 


7.4 


9=^.2 


0,0 


19S5/'3 3 4/ 


2^.3 


? .93 


?6.0 


6.5 


0.0 


6, 5 


92.5 


CO 


COARSE GRAINS 5/ 


















1«73/7' 


3 3.5 


?. 36 


79.0 


3.1 


0.1 


3.0 


S2.0 


0.0 


1 979/3 J 


<'.7 


2.46 


3^.1 


2.0 


0.1 


1.0 


65.0 


0,0 


1 930/31 


32.5 


2.39 


34.2 


0.9 


0.2 


C.7 


«5.0 


CO 


19 31/32 


31 . 1 


2. 6G 


-*^C. 3 


1 .3 


c . z 


1 . 1 


?1 .9 


CO 


19 3 2/53 


? = .3 


2.31 


*?2.4 


2.7 


0.1 


2.6 


35.0 


0,0 


1953/34 


29. 6 


3.13 


92.6 


0.2 


C.5 


-0.2 


92.4 


0,0 


1934/35 3/ 


2^. 0 




^6.4 


0.1 


5.6 


-5.4 


91 .0 


0,0 


1935/36 ir/ 




3." 11 


^4.9 


0.3 


4.3 


-4.0 


80. S 


0.0 



1/ F5ED US? 5UA i^'?^ U'^JAV* ILA-SLr FOR CHINA. 

2/ F0-< Cnl.NA/ JTILTZATION -STI'-'mTc" R=■'RES?^fT "APPARENT" UTILIZATION'/ I.E. THEY IMCLUOE ANNUAL STOCK LEVEL 

ADJUSTMENTS THOUGH NO STOCKS CAT* AR"^ AVAILABLE. 
3/ PRELIMI'^IA'^Y. 
4/ PROJECTION. 

5/ COARSE >3RAINS INCLU05 "^^'L^Y/ RYE/ OAT<?/ COM/ SORGHUI^/ AN") •'^ILLeT. EXCLUDED aRE "T SC ^ LL A N ECU S GRAINS/ 
PULSES AND ?IC£. 

COM-IODITY PRDSRA^S/ FAS/ USDA GRAIN ANO FE = D DIVISION 



21 



'JHC4T: SUPOLY AND DISAPPEARANCE 
U.S. ^AJO< C3»"P?TIT0BS 

1973/74 - 1??5/?6 
■MILLION "FT^i: T0SS/HECTA9ES 

A°£A YI£L: oo05UCTTO^( DO'*ESTIC - - EXPORTS 1/ - - "KT YEAR ?/ 

•JA'VESTHJ USE JUL/JUN t«KT YEAR END STOCKS 







C« 'JA5A 


(MARKETING 


Y E 4 P U 


G/ JUL) 








1973/74 




9.6 


1 .69 


1 5. 2 


4.6 


11.7 


11.4 


10.1 


1974/75 




0.9 


1.49 


13. ■> 


4,6 


11.2 


10.7 


S.O 


1975/75 




».5 


1.30 


17.1 


4.6 


12.1 


12.3 


3.2 


1976/77 




11.3 


2.10 


23.6 


5.0 


12.9 


13.4 


13.3 


1977/73 




10.1 


1.'6 


19.0 


5.-1 


15.9 


16.0 


12.1 


1973/79 




10.6 


2.00 


21.1 


5.3 


13.5 


13.1 


14.9 


1979/83 




13.5 


1.64 


17.2 


5.5 


15.0 


15.9 


10.7 


1 933/ 31 




11 .1 


1 .73 


19.2 


5.0 


17.0 


16. 3 


S.6 


19i1/32 




12.4 


2.00 


24.3 


5.2 


17.6 


18.4 


9.S 


1932/33 




12.6 


2.13 


26.7 


5.1 


21.4 


21.4 


10.0 


1933/34 




1^.7 


1.94 


26.5 


5.6 


21.8 


21.3 


9.2 


1 934/?5 


3/ 


13.2 


1.61 


21 .2 


5.4 


19.4 


17.5 


7.5 


19!5/36 


4/ 


13.7 


1.'5 


23.9 


5.9 


17.5 


13.0 


7.5 



AUSTRALIA CARKETINS YEAR OCT/SEP) 



1 973/74 




3.9 


1.34 


12.0 


3.5 


5.4 


7.3 


2.0 


1974/75 




8.3 


1.37 


11.4 


3.1 


8.3 


8.6 


1.7 


1975/76 




3.6 


1.40 


12.3 


2.3 


7.9 


S.7 


2.7 


1976/77 




9.0 


1.32 


11.3 


2.8 


3.5 


9.5 


2.1 


1977/73 




10.0 


0.94 


9.4 


2.5 


11.1 


3.1 


0.8 


1973/79 




19.2 


1.7' 


18.1 


2.5 


6.7 


11.7 


4.6 


1 979/33 




11.2 


1.45 


16.2 


3.4 


15.0 


13.2 


4.3 


1 930/31 




11.3 


0.96 


10.' 


3.5 


10.6 


9.6 


2.0 


1931/32 




11.9 


1.33 


16.4 


2.6 


11.0 


11.0 


4.8 


1932/33 




11.5 


0.77 


8.« 


4.1 


3.1 


7.3 


2.3 


1 933/34 




12.9 


1 .70 


22.0 


3.4 


10.6 


13.3 


7.6 


1984/35 


3/ 


12.0 


1 .52 


1?.3 


2.6 


16.6 


14.7 


8.6 


1935/86 


4/' 


12.3 


1.3? 


16.5 


3.0 


15.7 


15.5 


6.6 



ARGENTINA (^ArKETINS YEAR DEC/NOV) 



1973/74 


4.0 


1.66 


6.6 


4.2 


1.1 


1.6 


1.0 


1974/75 


4.2 


1.41 


6.0 


4.5 


2.2 


1.8 


0.7 


1975/76 


5.3 


1.6? 


"'.6 


5.4 


3.2 


3.2 


0.7 


1976/77 


6.4 


1.71 


11.0 


4.2 


5.6 


5.9 


1.6 


1 977/78 


3.9 


1.46 


5.7 


4.3 


2.6 


1.3 


1.2 


1 973/79 


4.7 


1.73 


3.1 


4.1 


3.3 


4.1 


. 1.1 


1 979/30 


4.3 


1.69 


3.1 


4.0 


4.3 


4. 3 


0.4 


1930/31 


5.0 


1.55 


7.3 


T . " 


3.9 


3.3 


0.4 


1931/32 


5.9 


1.40 


S.3 


4.3 


4.3 


3.6 


0.8 


1932/83 


7.3 


2.05 


15.0 


4.3 


7.5 


9.5 


1.1 


1 933/34 


5.9 


1.?5 


12.8 


4.7 


9.7 


7.3 


I.J 


1934/35 3/ 


5.9 


2.22 


13.? 


4.5 


8.0 


9.4 


0.5 


1935/36 4/ 


5.3 


1 . 30 


«. 5 


4.4 


6.6 


5.2 


0.4 





TOTAL 


COMPETITORS 












1973/74 


22.5 


1.54 


34.7 


12.4 


18.3 


20.0 


13.1 


1974/75 


21 .5 


1.43 


30.6 


12.2 


21 .6 


21 .1 


10.4 


1975/76 


23.3 


1.61 


37.6 


12.3 


23.2 


24.1 


11.6 


1976/77 


26.6 


1 .74 


46.4 


12.1 


27.0 


28.8 


17.1 


1977/73 


24.0 


1.46 


34.9 


12.0 


29.5 


25.9 


14.1 


1 973/79 


25.5 


1.35 


47.3 


11.9 


23.5 


23.3 


20.7 


1979/83 


26.4 


1 .57 


41 .5 


12.9 


34.7 


33.8 


15.4 


1 930/31 


27.4 


1.33 


37.8 


12.5 


31 .5 


29.7 


11.0 


1931/32 


30.2 


1 .64 


49.5 


12.1 


32.9 


33.1 


15.3 


1 982/33 


31 .4 


1.61 


50.6 


14.0 


37.0 


38.5 


13.4 


1933/34 


33.5 


1 .83 


61.3 


13.7 


42.0 


43.0 


18.0 


1934/35 3/ 


31 .1 


1.69 


52.7 


12.5 


44.1 


41 .6 


16.6 


1985/86 4/ 


31 .0 


1.61 


49. ' 


13.3 


39. B 


38.7 


14.5 



U.S. (MARKETING YEAR JUN/MAY) 

1 973/74 21 .9 2 .1? 46.5 20. 5 31 .3 33. 1 9.3 

1974/75 26.5 1.33 48.5 13.3 28.3 27.7 11.8 

1973/76 23.1 2.06 57.' 1°.7 31.7 31.9 19.1 

1976/77 23.7 2.34 53.5 20.5 26.1 25.9 30.3 

1977/73 27.0 2.06 55.^ 23.4 31.5 30.6 32.1 

1973/79 22.? 2.11 48.3 22.8 32.3 32.5 25.1 

1979/33 25.3 2.30 53.1 21.3 37.2 37.4 24.5 

1930/31 28.3 2.25 64.3 21.3 41.9 41,2 26.9 

1931/32 32.6 2.32 75.8 23.1 48.8 43.2 31.5 

1932/33 31.5 2.39 75.3 24.7 39.9 41.1 41.2 

1933/34 24.8 2.65 65.9 30.2 38.9 33.9 39.1 

1934/35 3/ 27.1 2.61 70.6 31.4 38.1 38.8 38.8 

1935/36 4/ 26.2 2.5? 66.0 33.2 26.7 25.9 49.0 



TOTAL U.S. AND C 0"PETIT D'S 



1973/74 




44.4 


1.33 


31.3 


32.9 


49.6 


53.1 


22.3 


1974/75 




47.9 


1 .65 


79.1 


30.5 


49.9 


48.8 


22.2 


1 975/76 




51.4 


1.'5 


'5.5 


32.1 


54.9 


56.0 


29.8 


1 976/77 




55.3 


1 .90 


104.9 


32.7 


53.1 


54.7 


47.3 


1 977/73 




51.0 


1.78 


90.6 


35.4 


61 .1 


56.5 


46.1 


1 973/79 




43.4 


1.98 


95.7 


34.7 


55.3 


61.3 


45.8 


1979/33 




51 .7 


1.93 


99.6 


34.? 


71.9 


71 .3 


40.0 


1980/81 




56.2 


1.33 


102.6 


33.8 


73.5 


70.9 


37.9 


1931/32 




62.9 


1 .99 


125.3 


35.1 


81 .7 


81.3 


46.9 


1932/33 




42.9 


2.00 


125.9 


38.7 


76.9 


79.6 


54.6 


1933/34 




53.4 ■ 


2.15 


1 27.1 


43.9 


80.9 


31 .3 


56.1 


1934/35 


3/ 


58.2 


2.12 


1 23.3 


43.9 


82.2 


30.4 


55. 3 


1985/86 


4/ 


57.2 


2.03 


115.9 


43.5 


66.5 


64.6 


63.4 



1/ INCLUDES THE WHEAT E5UIVALENT FLOUR. 

2/ NET CHANGES IN FAR1 STOC<S FOR ARGENTINA AND AUSTRALIA ARE REFLECTED IN DOMESTIC 

DISAPOEARANCE. 
3/ PRELIMINARY. 
4/ PROJECTED. 

SOURCES: PREPARED OR ESTI«1ATES ON =»ASIS OF OFFICIAL STATISTICS OF FOREIGN GOV = RNI»e NT S , 
OTHER FOREIGN SOURCE HATE'IALS, REPORTS OF U.S. AGRICULTURAL ATTACHES AND FOREIGN S"=RVIC = 
OFFICERS/ RESULTS OF OFFICE RESEARCH/ AND RELATED I NFOR«IATI ON . 

COilODITY PROGRAMS, FAS, USDA CR^ifj AND FEED DIVISION 



22 



3ELSCTHD COARSE 3RAINS 
-lAJOR rOSSIGN EX'ORTERS 
PRODUCTION YEARS 197S - 1935 
THOUSANDS OF METRIC TON S / H E C TARES 







& 9 C ft 

f< C H 


V ▼ C 1 f\ 




u 1 C 3 1 i. \, 


- - EXPORTS - - 


C M n T M ft 












IITTt TTATinW 
UI iUlLnllLfPi 


n r T /CCD 


U ^ T V 3 

1 1s. T T 


c T A r ^ c 




















(78) 1979/30 




2117 


3.07 


6500 


2P56 


1611 


3755 


141 


(79) 1930/31 




1279 


2.31 


2960 


1585 


4S60 


1 494 


22 


(30) 1981/32 




2100 


3. 33 


710C 


2050 


^ 31 A 


4940 

*+ 7 H J 


132 


^OM \ 7 0 c / J J 




C 7 1 J 


J • 1 7 


s Tn 1 

0 J 'J o 


3 non 

t L 7 U 


4931 


^ S 4 4 

J J *9 •* 


4 OR 
H 7 0 


\ 0 C / l70jfJ*T 




25 20 


3.02 


760C 


2 700 


4788 


519 7 


201 






C V f J 


. 04 


7200 


3050 


336 5 


41 7 i 


317 




I / 


1 7 o r 




5 900 


2 700 


2 300 


33 00 


117 


VO^/ 1700/ 3f 


2 / 


1650 


3.33 


5 5 00 


2700 




2 800 


117 






GRAIN SORGHUM 


(MAR/ FE3) 
















4 1^9 

H W 7 


2.40 


112 5 


502 


650 


669 


134 


(79) 1930/31 




519 


1 .78 


922 


367 


510 


506 


183 


(80) 1981/32 




653 


1 .83 


1 204 


466 


1233 


856 


65 


(31) 1932/33 




649 


2.03 


1317 


366 


P P 1 


0 A 1 

7 0 1 


55 


XOCJ 17 0 i / SH 




r U r 


1 ■ J 0 


0 9 


r U 1 


i A 5 7 


3 fl 3 

CO c 


7ft 






f 3U 


c • D ? 


1 9 C ^ 

1 J ^ J 


7 on 

J y u 


i 5 nn 

1 t uu 


1 A 3 5 


i nn 


(84) 19 85/36 


1 / 


fx J 


1 • f 0 


i 7 ? n 

1 c D U 


A ft n 


1 0 n n 

1 U U U 


9^0 

" 3 u 


1 uu 


185> lyoo/of 


i 1 


f 03 


1 • y c 


1 A ^ 

1 H 0 J 


A ftn 




110 0 




AR SEMT T NA 




r'^RN (MAP/FPr^) 














(78) 1979/30 




2399 


3.10 


9000 


3296 


3460 


5965 


173 


(79) 1930/31 




2490 


2.57 


6400 


3043 


0OI6 


3417 


10«? 


(30) 1931/32 




3394 


3.80 


1 290C 


3700 


^ 0 ? 7 
H y t fc 


T J y 3 


210 






3170 


3.03 


9600 


3 500 




^ 7 A ^ 








2970 




7 J U vj 


7 pnn 


^ A ^ 
5 C 0 J 


0 U ? 0 


7 R 0 

c 0 y 






3025 


ni 
J . \j f 


0 3nn 




1 J 0 u 


^ ^ A 5 

^ *♦ H 3 


7 1 A 


\5't/ 1 7 <J J / JO 


1 / 


J J J J 


. •» J 




7 snn 


" J u u 


7? n n 


R 1 A 

0 1 D 


\O^V t 7 J 0 1 0 1 


C 1 


% X on 




1 1 0 U J 


7 flnn 




S 7 1 

C J J J 


^ 1 A 

5 10 


SOUTH AFRICA 




CORN ('-1 AY/APR) 














(73) 1979/30 




4305 


1 .92 


'?271 


6702 


3303 


2325 


1 359 


(79) 1930/31 




4322 


2.50 


10794 


6757 


3930 


3444 


1 952 


(80) 1931/32 




4339 


3.33 


14645 


7097 


4 700 


4955 


4545 


(31) 1932/i3 




4272 


1.95 


8355 


7 663 


2300 


403 4 


1333 


(32) 1933/34 




4065 


1 .00 


40S3 


7 511 


75 


335 


0 


(S3) 19 34/?5 




3 9 53 


1.11 


439T 


6 397 


100 


Q ■ 


Q 


(34) IJ^S/i^A 


I / 


3 887 


1 . 94 


75 5 0 


6000 


onn 
7 u u 


V J 'J 


onn 

7 J u 




■p 1 

C 1 


J O w ^ 


? no 


s nm 

" 'J U J 


0 *♦ ij J 




1 A 0 0 
1 3 J J 


onn 


T H A T 1 i M ft 

1 n n X L M 




rODM (WW / IIIK]^ 














i7%\ 10751/70 




1 7 R A 

1 3 c 0 


3 ni 


3 7 01 

c f 7 t 


A01 

07 1 


1927 


2078 


3 3 


(79) 1979/30 




1424 


2.32 


3300 


1050 


2067 


2150 


153 


(30) 1980/31 




1 450 


2.21 


3200 


1103 


2113 


2142 


103 


(31) 1951/32 




1750 


2.49 


4350 


1 050 


TO A n 


7 7 A ri 
J 1 0 U 


143 






1 350 


1 .?6 


7 A c n 
J *♦ w 




0 ^ t A 
1 1 J 0 


7 1 7 A 


7 0 7 






1 375 


2.11 




1 T n n 






1 Hi 




1 / 


1955 


2.23 


*♦ J J u 


1 1 n n 

1 J u u 


t y u u 


7 n ^ n 

J U 5 u 


1 U 1 




3 / 


2150 


2.40 


3 1 ? u 


1 ^ u u 


^ 0 3 u 






AUSTRALIA 




PARLEY (NOV/OCT) 












(73) ^97i/7'^ 




2735 


1 .44 


4006 


1 560 


2007 


211 2 


533 


(79) 1979/30 




2482 


1 .49 


3703 


1357 


2900 


2324 


55 


(30) 1930/31 




2451 


1.09 


2632 


831 


1 C / T 

1 3 4 J 


1701 


125 


^Q1^ 1031/33 




2635 


1 .28 


^ 4 3 U 


1 3 A ^ 




33^0 

C CJ7 


^ 0 

3 'J 


/fl9\ 13QT/aT 




2452 


0.79 


10 7 0 
17 3 7 


1 ^ 1 C 


600 


Q C / 
0 3 4 


0 0 

7U 


/27^ 133T/fi/. 




310O 


1 .57 


/ 0 Q n 
4 0 7 U 


Q 1 n - 
SI u 


7 7 "5 1 


/ 1 1 7 


3 .3 


/aA^ ioflA/15 
V34y 1734/ 53 


■1 / 
1 / 


3507 


1 .59 


c c i£ 1 


f UU 


5300 


4 9 00 




(35) 17 3 5/36 


£ / 


3480 


1 .44 


5000 


450 


4500 


4500 


04 


t A M A D A 




3ARLEY (AU'S/JUL) 












(73) 1973/79 




4259 


2.44 


1 0337 


7146 


3898 


3554 


4895 


(79) 1979/30 




3724 


2.27 


3460 


7537 


2963 


3832 


2006 


(SO) 1930/31 




4634 


2.43 


11259 


6335 


4012 


323 6 


3203 


(31) 1981/32 




5476 


2.51 


13724 


7046 


5543 


5722 


4161 


(82) 1932/33 




51 49 


2.71 


13966 


7275 


6071 


5648 


5204 


(33) 1983/34 




4353 


2.35 


10209 


7906 


4240 


5536 


1971 


(84) 1934/35 


1/ 


4566 


2.25 


10296 


7474 


2604 


2781 


2012 


(35) 1985/86 


2/ 


4752 


2.58 


1 2250 


7500 


4500 


4300 


2462 



NOTE: YEARS IN PARENTHESES DENOTE PRODUCTION YEARS USED FOR AGGREGATING WORLD CROPS. SPLIT YEARS 
(E.G. 1982/83) ARE MARKETING YEARS. 

1/ PRELIMINARY. 
2/ PROJECTION. 

SOURCES: PREPARED OR ESTIMATED ON THE SASIS OF OFFICIAL STATISTICS OF FOREIGN GOVERNMENTS/ OTHER 
FOREIGN SOURCE MATERIALS/ REPORTS OF U.S. AGRICULTURAL ATTACHES AND FOREIGN SE9VICE OFFICERS/ RESULTS 
OF OFFICE RESEARCH AND RELATED INFORMATION. 

COMMODITY PROGRAMS/ FAS/ USDA GRAIN AND FEED DIVISION 



23 



U.S. WHEAT AND COARSE GRAINS 
MILLION METRIC TO N S / H E C T AR E S 
MARKETING YEARS 1963/61 - 1985/86 

•BEGINNING A9EA YIELD PRODUCTION IMPORTS EXPORTS DOMESTIC DOMESTIC 

STOCKS HARVESTED FOR FEED TOTAL USE 



TOTAL WHEAT AND COARSE GRAINS 



1963/61 


105 


.6 


73, 


,3 


2 


.4 


178 


. 3 


0. 


.6 


29. 


• C 


110 


.1 


137. 


7 


1961 /62 


1 1 8 


. 3 


64. 


. 1 


2 


.5 


1 61 


.0 


0. 


, 5 


34. 


,7 


112 


.8 


143. 


8 


1 962/6 3 


1 34 


. 3 


59. 


,7 


2 


.7 


1 59 


. 3 


0. 


, 3 


32. 


, -3 


1 09 


.6 


1 37. 


9 


1 9o3/64 


93 


.2 


61 . 


,6 


2 


.3 


171 


. 5 


3. 


.4 


39. 


.7 


106 


.9 


135. 


3 


1964/65 


90 


.1 


60, 


.2 


2 


.6 


1 57 


.5 


0. 


.4 


39. 


,3 


1 04 


.4 


1 33. 


6 


1 965/66 


76 


.5 


59. 


.6 


3 


.3 


179 


.1 


0. 


,3 


48. 


.9 


1 20 


.0 


148. 


9 


1«6o/67 


53 


.2 


60. 


,2 


3 


.0 


1 80 


.7 


3. 


.3 


41 . 


.1 


118 


.2 


148. 


6 


1 967/68 


49 


.5 


65. 


,G 


3 


.1 


203 


.9 


0. 


T 

t ^ 


41 . 


.5 


118 


.8 


149. 


5 


1968/69 


62 


.7 


62. 


,0 


3 


.2 


197 


.6 


0. 


, 3 


31 . 


.1 


1 26 


.9 


1 57. 


8 


1969/73 


71 


.3 


58. 


.3 


3 


.4 


201 


.0 


0. 


.4 


35. 


.4 


1 34 


.0 


165. 


0 


1973/71 


72 


.8 


58. 


.4 


3 


.1 


182 


.9 


0. 


.4 


38. 


.8 


132 


.1 


162. 


8 


1 971 /72 


54 


.6 


62. 


, 9 


3 


.7 


233 


.6 


0, 


,4 


40. 


.5 


143 


.1 


1 74. 


6 


1 972/73 


73 


.4 


57. 


.5 


3 


.9 


224 


.1 


0. 


,5 


69. 


,1 


1 47 


.8 


1 80. 


9 


1 973/74 


48 


.0 


63. 


. 5 


3 


.7 


233 




0. 


.3 


73. 


.8 


143 


.0 


176. 


7 


1 974/75 


31 


.1 


67. 


.1 


3 


.0 


1 99 


.4 


Q , 


.6 


63. 


.6 


1C6 


.5 


140. 


1 


1 975/76 


27 


.3 


70. 


.8 


3 


.4 


243 


.3 


0, 


.5 


82. 


.0 


116 


.7 


153. 


7 


1 976/77 


35 


.5 


72. 


.0 


3 


.5 


252 


.8 


0. 


.4 


76, 


.5 


115 


.3 


151. 


9 


1 977/78 


63 


.3 


71 . 


^ 2 


3 


.7 


261 


.4 


0. 


.4 


86. 


.9 


124 


.5 


161. 


7 


1 978/79 


73 


.5 


66. 


.0 


4 


.1 


2 70 


.5 


0, 


.3 


92. 


.7 


140 


.5 


1 80. 


C 


1 97<5/S3 


71 


.6 


67. 


.1 


4 


.4 


296 


.5 


0. 


.4 


108. 


.8 


140 


.9 


1 82. 


4 


1950/81 


77 


.2 


70. 


.1 


3 


.8 


263 


.1 


0. 


. 3 


110. 


.7 


1 24 


.6 


168. 


4 


19S1/32 


61 


.6 


76. 


.1 


4 


.2 


322 


.4 


0. 


.4 


106, 


.8 


132 


.3 


177. 


8 


1932/83 


99 


.8 


74. 


.8 


4 


.4 


326 


.0 


0. 


.6 


95, 


.1 


144 


.9 


192. 


5 


1983/84 


138 


.7 


57. 


.7 


3 


.5 


205 


.0 


0. 


.8 


94, 


.6 


128 


.0 


178. 


1 


1 9 84/3 5 


69 


.3 


70. 


.6 


4 


.4 


307 


.8 


1. 


.0 


94. 


.7 


142 


.0 


194. 


8 


1985/86 


89 


.2 


71 . 


.3 


4 


.7 


336 


.9 


0. 


.8 


74. 


.8 


145 


.8 


200. 


5 



1986/37 151.6 



WHEAT 



1 970/71 
1 971/72 
1 972/73 
1 973/74 
1 974/75 
1 975/76 
1 976/77 
1977/73 
1 973/79 
1 979/30 
1 980/31 
1981/32 
1 932/33 
1933/34 
1984/85 
1985/86 
1986/87 



26.8 
22.4 
26.8 
16.2 
9.3 
11.8 
13.1 
30.3 
32.1 
25.1 
24.5 
26.9 
31 .5 
41 .2 
38.1 
38.8 
49.3 



1 7.7 
19.3 
19.1 
21 .9 
26.5 
28.1 
28.7 
27.3 
22.9 

2 5.3 
28.8 
32.6 
31.5 
24.8 
27.1 
26.2 



2.1 
2.3 
2.2 
2.1 
1 .8 
2.1 



36.8 
44.1 
42.1 
46.6 
43. 5 
57.9 
53.5 
55.7 
48.3 
58.1 
64.8 
75.8 
75.3 
65.9 
73.6 
66.0 



0.0 
0.0 
0.0 
0.1 
0.1 
0.1 
0.1 
0.1 
0.0 
0.1 
0.1 
0.1 
0.2 
0.1 
0.2 
0.3 



20.2 
16.3 
30.4 
33.1 
27.7 
31.9 
25.9 
33.6 
32.5 
37.4 
41 .2 
48.2 
41 .1 
38.9 
38.8 
25.9 



5.3 
7.1 
5.5 
3.5 
1 .1 
1.0 
2.0 
5.3 
4.3 
2.3 
1 .6 
3.6 
5.3 
10.2 
11.2 
9.5 



21. C 
23.4 
22.3 
20.5 
18.3 
19.7 
20.5 
23.4 
22.8 
21.3 
21.3 
23.1 
24.7 
30.2 
31.4 
30.2 



COARSE GRAINS 



1 970/71 


46 


.1 


40. 


,7 


3. 


,6 


1 46. 


1 


0. 


,4 


18. 


.6 


1 26, 


.9 


141. 


8 


1 971/72 


32 


.2 


43. 


,6 


4. 


.3 


1 89. 


,5 


0. 


,3 


24. 


.2 


136. 


.0 


151. 


3 


1972/73 


46 


.6 


38. 


,4 


4, 


.7 


1 82. 


,0 


0. 


,4 


38. 


.7 


142, 


.3 


158. 


6 


1 973/74 


31 


.7 


41 . 


.6 


4, 


.5 


186. 


.8 


3. 


, 2 


40, 


.7 


139. 


.5 


1 56. 


2 


1974/75 


21 


.8 


40. 


,7 


3. 


.7 


150. 


,9 


0. 


,5 


35. 


,9 


105, 


.4 


1 21. 


8 


1975/76 


15 


.5 


42. 


.6 


4. 


.4 


185. 


.4 


0. 


.4 


50. 


.G 


115. 


.6 


1 34. 


C 


1 976/77 


17 


.3 


43. 


.3 


4, 


.5 


194, 


.4 


0. 


,3 


50, 


.6 


113. 


.3 


131. 


4 


1977/73 


30 


.0 


44. 


.2 


4. 


.7 


205. 


.7 


0. 


, 3 


56, 


.3 


119. 


.2 


138. 


3 


1 973/79 


41 


. 3 


43. 


.2 


5 , 


.1 


222. 


.1 


0. 


.3 


60, 


.2 


136. 


.2 


157. 


2 


1 979/80 


46 


.4 


41 . 


.8 


5. 


.7 


238, 


.4 


0. 


.3 


71, 


.4 


1 38, 


.5 


161. 


1 


1983/31 


52 


.7 


41 . 


.3 


4. 


.8 


198. 


.3 


0. 


. 3 


69. 


.5 


123, 


.0 


147. 


1 


1981/32 


34 


.7 


43. 


.4 


5, 


.7 


246. 


.6 


0. 


,3 


58. 


.6 


128. 


.7 


154. 


8 


1 982/83 


68 


.2 


43. 


.2 


5 , 


.8 


250, 


.7 


0. 


.4 


54. 


.0 


139, 


.6 


167. 


9 


1933/34 


97 


.5 


32. 


.9 


4, 


.2 


1 37, 


.1 


0. 


.7 


55. 


.7 


117. 


.3 


147. 


8 


1 934/35 


31 


.3 


43. 


.5 


5, 


.5 


237. 


.2 


0. 


. 8 


56. 


.0 


130, 


.8 


163. 


4 


1985/86 


50 


.4 


45. 


.1 


6, 


.0 


273. 


.0 


0. 


. 6 


48, 


.9 


136, 


.2 


170. 


3 



1936/37 102.6 



NOTES: COARSE GRAINS INCLUDE CORN/. SORGHUM, BARLEYr OATS AND RYE. 
SOURCE: OFFICIAL USDA STATISTICS OR ESTIMATES- 
COMMODITY PROGRAMS, FAS, USDA GRAIN AND FEED DIVISION 



24 



U.S. WHEAT, CORN, SORGHUM, BARLEY, OATS, AND RYE SUPPLY/DISTRIBUTION 
MILLION BUSHELS /MILLION ACRES 



Beginning Harvested Total 
Stocks Area Yield Production Imports Exports Feed Usage Domestic Use 



Wheat 



1975/76 


435 


69.5 


30.6 


2,127 


2 


1,173 


37 


725 


1976/77 


666 


70.9 


30.3 


2,149 


3 


950 


75 


755 


1977/78 


1,113 


66.7 


30.7 


2,046 


2 


1,124 


192 


859 


1978/79 


1,178 


56.5 


31.4 


1,776 


2 


1,194 


158 


837 


1979/80 


924 


62.5 


34.2 


2,134 


2 


1,375 


86 


783 


1980/81 


902 


71.1 


33.5 


2,381 


3 


1,514 


60 


783 


1981/82 


989 


80.6 


34.5 


2,785 


3 


1,771 


135 


847 


1982/83 


1,159 


77.9 


35.5 


2,765 


8 


1,509 


195 


908 


1983/84 


1,515 


61.4 


39.4 


2,420 


4 


1,429 


369 


1,111 


1984/85 


1,399 


66.9 


38.8 


2,595 


9 


1,424 


411 


1,154 


1985/86 


1,425 


64.7 


37.5 


2,425 


10 


950 


350 


1,110 


1986/87 


1,800 
















Com 


















1975/76 


361 


67.6 


86.4 


5,841 


2 


1,711 


3,603 


4,093 


1976/77 


400 


71.5 


88.0 


6,289 


3 


1,684 


3,609 


4,122 


1977/78 


886 


70.6 


92.1 


6,505 


3 


1,948 


O lit. 

3, 744 


4,334 


1978/79 


1,111 


71.9 


101.0 


7,268 


1 


2,133 


4,323 


4,943 


1979/80 


1,304 


72.4 


109.5 


7,928 


1 


2,433 


4,508 


5,183 


1980/81 


1,617 


73.0 


91.0 


6,639 


1 


2,355 


4,133 


4,868 


1981/82 


1,034 


74.6 


108.9 


8,119 


1 


1,967 


4,201 


5,013 


1982/83 


2,174 


72.7 


113.2 


8,235 


1 


1,870 


4,522 


5,420 


1983/84 


3,120 


51.5 


81.1 


4,175 


2 


1,865 


3,736 


4,709 


1984/85 


723 


71.8 


106.6 


7,656 


3 


1,838 


4,100 


5,165 


1985/86 


1,379 


74.8 


116.6 


8,717 


1 


1,625 


4,300 


5,420 


1986/87 


3,052 
















Sorghum 


















1975/76 


35 


15.4 


49.0 


754 




229 


502 


509 


1976/77 


51 


14.5 


49.0 


711 


- 


246 


419 


425 


1977/78 


91 


13.8 


56.6 


781 




213 


456 


468 


1978/79 


191 


13.4 


54.5 


731 




207 


544 


555 


1979/80 


160 


12.9 


62.6 


807 




325 


483 


496 


1980/81 


146 


12.5 


46.3 


579 


_ 


299 


306 


317 


1981/82 


109 


13.7 


64.0 


876 


_ 


249 


429 


440 


1982/83 


296 


14.1 


59.1 


835 




214 


507 


517 


1983/84 


400 


10.0 


48.7 


488 


_ 


246 


381 


391 


1984/85 


251 


15.3 


56.4 


866 




299 


526 


546 


1985/86 


271 


16.2 


69.6 


1,127 


_ 


275 


550 


570 


1986/87 


553 
















Barley 


















1975/76 


92 


8.6 


44.1 


379 


16 


24 


186 


335 


1976/77 


128 


8.4 


45.6 


383 


11 


66 


172 


330 


1 Q77 /7ft 




Q 7 










1 77 


■J J J 


1978/79 


173 


9.2 


49.2 


455 


10 


26 


217 


384 


1979/80 


228 


7.5 


50.9 


383 


12 


55 


204 


376 


1980/81 


192 


7.3 


49.7 


361 


10 


77 


174 


349 


1981/82 


137 


9.0 


52.4 


474 


10 


100 


198 


372 


1982/83 


148 


9.0 


57.2 


516 


11 


47 


241 


411 


T n o o /OA 


217 


ft T 


52. 3 




7 


92 




4!>2 


1 Q Q /. /OR 


1 QQ 


11 0 

11 






lU 


11 




/• 7 


1 Qft'i /RA 
JLyOD/ OO 




11 ^ 




JO 7 


7 


30 


300 


470 


X700/ O/ 


















Oats 


















1975/76 


nil, 


13.0 


49.0 


639 


1 


14 


560 


645 


1976/77 


205 


11.8 


45.9 


540 


2 


10 


490 


573 


1977/78 


164 


13.5 


55.6 


753 


2 


12 


509 




1978/79 


313 


11.1 


52.3 


582 


1 


13 


525 


603 


1979/80 


280 


9.7 


54.4 


527 


1 


4 


492 


568 


1980/81 


236 


8.7 


53.0 


459 


1 


13 


432 


506 


1981/82 


177 


9.4 


54.2 


510 


2 


7 


454 


530 


1982/83 


152 


10.3 


57.8 


593 


4 


3 


441 


526 


1983/84 


220 


9.1 


52.6 


477 


30 


2 


466 


544 


1984/85 


181 


8.2 


58.0 


474 


34 


1 


434 


508 


1985/86 


180 


8.2 


63.6 


519 


25 


2 


425 


505 


1986/87 


217 
















Rye 


















1975/76 


7 


0.7 


22.9 


16 


1 


1 


7 


18 


1976/77 


4 


0.7 


21.4 


15 






5 


15 


1977/78 


4 


0.7 


24.4 


17 






7 


17 


1978/79 


4 


0.9 


26.0 


24 






8 


19 


1979/80 


9 


0.9 


25.7 


22 




2 


7 


17 


1980/81 


12 


0.7 


24.6 


16 




8 


7 


16 


1981/82 


4 


0.7 


26.6 


18 




2 


8 


18 


1982/83 


3 


0.7 


28.9 


20 


3 




10 


20 


1983/84 


6 


0.9 


30.3 


27 


2 


1 


12 


22 


1984/85 


11 


1.0 


33.0 


32 


1 


1 


14 


24 


1985/86 


20 


0.7 


30.0 


21 


2 


1 


13 


23 



1986/87 



18 



June /May-Wheat, Barley, Oats and Rye; October /September-Corn and 



Notes: Commodity Years As Follows: 

Sorghum . 
"-" Denotes zero. 



Source: World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates No. 189, January 10, 1986 



25 



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26 



WH^AT AND COAPSE Sf^AINS 
MILLIONS OF METPi: TONS/HECTAPES 



ASEA YI^LD PPODUCTION WORLD UTILIZATION ENDING STOCKS AS 
HA!?V£3T = D TRADE 1/ TOTAL 2/ STKS 3/ % OF UTIL 

WHEAT 



1 960/51 


202.2 


1.13 


233.4 


41 .9 


234.8 


31 


.S 


34 


, 9 


1'61/62 


203.4 


1.10 


224.3 


46.3 


236.4 


70 


.2 


29 


.7 


1 952/63 


206.9 


1.22 


251 . ? 


44.3 


243.1 


74 


.0 


29 


.8 


1953/44 


205.3 


1.13 


233.9 


56.0 


240.0 


67 


.8 


28 


.3 


1 954/65 


215.9 


1.25 


270.4 


52.0 


262.0 


76 


.2 


29 


.1 


1 965/66 


215.5 


1.22 


263.3 


61.0 


231.6 


55 


^ 3 


19 


.7 


1 956/67 


213.6 


1 . 44 


306.7 


56. C 


279.8 


32 


.1 


29 


.4 


1 957/63 


210.2 


1.35 


297.6 


51.0 


2 = 9.1 


9C 


.6 


31 


, 3 


195a/59 


223.9 


1 .48 


330.3 


45.0 


306.4 


115 


.0 


37 


.6 


1 959/70 


217.8 


1.42 


310.0 


50.0 


327.3 


97 


.8 


30 


.0 


1 970/71 


207.0 


1. 52 


313.7 


55.0 


337.2 


74 


.3 


22 


.0 


1971/72 


21 2.9 


1.65 


351.0 


52.0 


344.3 


?1 


.0 


23 


^ c 


1972/73 


211.0 


1.63 


343.4 


67.0 


361 .8 


52 


.6 


17 


.3 


1 973/74 


21 7.1 


1.72 


373.2 


63.0 


355.6 


70 


.2 


19 


.2 


1974/75 


220.1 


1.64 


360.2 


64.3 


366.6 


63 


.7 


17 


.4 


1 975/76 


225.4 


1.5S 


356.6 


66.7 


356.3 


64 


.2 


1 S 


.0 


1 976/77 


23?. 2 


1.31 


421 .4 


63.3 


385.9 


99 


.2 


24 


.2 


1 977/73 


227.1 


1.69 


334.1 


72.8 


399.4 


S4 


.2 


20 


.8 


1 973/79 


22S.9 


1.95 


444.3 


72.0 


430.2 


100 


.9 


23 


.9 


1979/30 


22?. 4 


1.86 


424. 5 


S4.0 


444,3 


31 


.0 


18 


.4 


1930/31 


237.0 


1.37 


442.9 


94.1 


445.7 


7? 


.2 


17 


.6 


1931/32 


233.7 


1.38 


443.4 


101 .3 


441 .5 


85 


.0 


19 


.4 


1 932/83 


237.5 


2.02 


479.1 


98.6 


467.9 


'6 


.3 


2" 


.9 


1 933/34 


229.1 


2.14 


490.9 


101 .9 


486.3 


101 


.0 


21 


.0 


1934/85 4/ 


231.1 


2.22 


513.8 


108.0 


499.3 


115 


. e 


23 


.3 


1935/86 5/ 


229.4 


2.20 


504.2 


90.5 


494.2 


125 


. 5 


25 


.4 



COARSE 5RAINS 



1950/61 


324.4 


1 . 


33 


447.9 


24 


.0 


437.2 


109. 


7 


25 


.1 


1 '41/62 


322.4 


1. 


35 


434.2 


30 


.0 


449.3 


94. 


7 


21 


.1 


1952/63 


320.9 


1 . 


43 


459.5 


31 


.0 


461.5 


92. 


7 


20 


.1 


1943/54 


324.9 


1 . 


44 


467. 3 


34 


.0 


462.6 


97. 


9 


21 


. 2 


1 954/55 


321 .8 


1. 


47 


473.1 


35 


.0 


480.0 


91 . 


0 


13 


.9 


1'45/56 


320.1 


1. 


51 


434.7 


42 


,0 


500.5 


75. 


1 


15 


.0 


1 954/67 


321 .0 


1 . 


42 


520.4 


40 


.0 


519.5 


74. 


1 


1 4 


.7 


1«57/53 


326.5 


1 . 


69 


550.3 


39 


.0 


541.6 


35. 


3 


15 


.7 


1 963/69 


32 3 . « 


1 . 


70 


5 52.7 


37 


.0 


548.0 


90. 


A 


16 


,4 


1 949/70 


330.4 


1. 


74 


575.5 


39 


.0 


575.4 


90. 


2 


1 5 


,7 


1 970/71 


331 .3 


1. 


74 


575 .2 


44 


.0 


592.2 


73. 


2 


12 


,4 


1 971/72 


332.5 


1. 


39 


529,1 


49 


. 3 


61 5.4 


37. 


C 


14 


.2 


1972/73 


325.7 


1 . 


87 


407.8 


59 


.2 


624.8 


49. 


e 


11 


.2 


1973/74 


344.1 


1 . 


95 


571 ,3 


71 


.0 


674.8 


65. 


8 


9 


.7 


1 974/75 


341 .9 


1. 


35 


631 .2 


65 


.0 


434.4 


61. 


0 


0 


.6 


1975/74 


349.3 


1. 


'55 


646,1 


75 


.2 


646,2 


5?. 


6 


9 


.1 


19^6/77 


344.7 


?. 


04 


704.8 


83 


.9 


683.4 


71 . 


2 


11 


.4 


1977/73 


345.4 


2. 


03 


701.4 


88 


.8 


693.0 


56. 


7 


12 


.5 


1 973/79 


343.? 


2. 


20 


755 ,1 


92 


.7 


749,4 


92. 


2 


12 


.3 


1 979/30 


343.2 


2. 


17 


743.9 


90 


.2 


743.3 


92. 


8 


12 


.4 


1930/31 


342.4 


2. 


14 


732.9 


103 


.0 


743. C 


32. 


5 


11 


.3 


1931/32 


750.2 


2, 


20 


■'69.9 


'6 


.4 


739.3 


112. 


9 


15 


.2 


1932/33 


• 339.2 


2. 


30 


779. 2 


39 


.9 


753.6 


138. 


4 


13 


.3 


1933/34 


334.3 


2. 


05 


685.4 


92 


.0 


757.4 


66. 


5 


8 


.8 


1934/35 4/ 


339.3 


2. 


3» 


808.9 


101 


.2 


778.4 


97. 


0 


12 


.5 


1935/36 5/ 


343.0 


7 - 


45 


340.4 


94 


.4 


787.5 


1 49. 




1 9 


.2 



WHEAT AND COARSE S^^AINS 



1960/61 


526.6 


1.30 


486 


.3 


45 


.9 


672 


.0 


191 


_ 3 


28 


^ 5 


1961/62 


525.8 


1.25 


659 


.0 


76 


. R 


535 


.6 


164 


!9 


24 


!i 


1952/63 


■=27.8 


1.35 


711 


.4 


75 


.4 


709 


.6 


1 64 


.6 


23 


.5 


1 943/64 


531 .2 


1.32 


701 


.7 


90 


.0 


702 


.6 


165 


.7 


23 


.6 


1 944/65 


537.7 


1.3 3 


743 


. 5 


87 


.0 


742 


.0 


167 


.2 


22 


.5 


1 953/66 


535 .6 


1.40 


748 


.0 


103 


.0 


782 


,1 


1 30 


.4 


16 


.7 


1 955/5'' 


534.7 


1 .55 


827 


, 2 


9< 


.0 


799 




1 55 


.3 


19 


. ? 


1 967/68 


545.7 


1 .53 


848 


,4 


39 


.9 


830 


.3 


175 


.9 


21 


.2 


1963/69 


549.8 


1 .61 


833 


,5 


82 


.0 


>j54 


. 4 


205 


.0 


24 


.0 


1 959/70 


543.2 


1.42 


8a5 


.6 


39 


.1 


90 2 


.6 


13? 


r 


20 


.9 


1970/71 


53". 3 


1.65 


838 


,3 


101 


.0 


929 


.4 


147 


is 


15 


.9 


1 971 /72 


545.4 


1.R0 


930 


,1 


1C1 


.3 


959 


.7 


167 


.9 


17 


.5 


1972/73 


534.9 


1.77 


951 


.3 


126 


.2 


986 


.6 


132 


.4 


13 


.4 


1 973/"'4 


561.2 


1 .?5 


1044 


.5 


134 


.0 


10 '^O 


.4 


1 34 


.C 


15 


.1 


1 974/75 


562.0 


1.76 


991 


■ 4 


129 


.3 


1001 


.1 


124 


.7 


12 


.5 


1975/76 


574.7 


1 .74 


1002 


.S 


141 


. 9 


1002 


.5 


122 


, p 


12 


.3 


1 975/77 


577.9 


1.95 


1126 


.2 


147 


.1 


1071 


.3 


178 


.1 


16 


.7 


1977/73 


573.5 


1.39 


1035 


.8 


161 


.6 


1092 


C 


17C 


.9 


15 


.6 


1973/79 


572.7 


2.10 


1 202 


. 0 


164 


.7 


1179 


'.6 


1 93 


.0 


16 


.5 


1979/30 


571.6 


2.04 


1163 


.4 


135 


.2 


118' 


.6 


173 


.3 


14 


.7 


1930/81 


579.4 


2.03 


1175 


.8 


202 


.1 


1133 


.7 


161 


. 0 


13 


.6 


1931/32 


533.5 


2.07 


■ 1218 


.3 


193 


.0 


1131 


.4 


197 


.9 


16 


.7 


1932/33 


576.7 


2.13 


1 25S 


. 4 


18? 


.6 


1 221 


.5 


234 


.8 


19 


.3 


1933/34 


563.3 


2.09 


1176 


.3 


193 


.9 


1243 


.7 


167 


.5 


13 




1934/85 4/ 


570.5 


2.32 


1322 


.7 


209 


.2 


1277 


.7 


212 


.5 


16 


.'7 


1935/36 5/ 


572.3 


2.35 


1 344 


. 4 


1 54 


.9 


1281 


.7 


275 


.3 


21 


.6 



NOTE: "STOCKS AS 'E^^CENT OF UTILIZATION" REPRESENT THE RATIO OF ^ARKETINS YEAR ENDING 
STOCKS TO TOTAL UTILIZATION. 

1/ TRA3E DATA AS EXPRESSED IN this TABLE EXCLUDE INTRA-EC TRADE. WHEAT AND COARSE 3RAINS 
ARE ON A JULY/JUNE TRADE YEAR THO0U3H 1975/76. FROM 1976/77 ON/' THE TRADE YEAR FOR 
COARSE GRAINS 13 0 C TO 3 E R /S E " TE ^ ? E R . 

2/ FOR COUNTRIES FOR WrHICH STOCK? DATA ARE NOT AVAILABLE (EXCLUDING THE USSR) UTILIZATION 
ESTIJ^ATES REPRESENT "A?=AR-NT" UTILIZATION/ I.E. INCLUDE ANNUAL STOCK LEVEL 40JUSTyENTS. 

3/ STOCKS DATA ARE 3ASE0 ON AN AGGREGATE OF DIFFERING LOCAL MARKETING YEARS AND SHOULD NOT 
3E CONSTRUED AS RE»'ESENTINS WORLD STOCK LEVELS AT A FIXED POINT IN TI^-E. STOCKS DATA 
ARE NOT AVAILABLE FOR ALL COUNTRIES AND EXCLUDE THOSE SUCH A3 THE PEOPLE'S REPUBLIC OF 
CHINA A.'JD PARTS OF EA3T-RN EU'O'E. WORLD STOCK LEVELS "AVE BE = N ADJUSTED FOR ESTIMATED 
YEAR-TO-YEAR CHANGES IN USSR GRAIN STOCKS/ RUT DO NOT PURPORT TO INCLUDE THE ABSOLUTE 
LEVEL OF USSR 3RAIN STOCKS. 

4/ PRELIMINARY. 

5/ PROJECTION. 

SOURCES: PREPARED OR ESTIMATED ON THE 3ASIS OF OFFICIAL STATISTICS OF FOREIGN GOVERNMENTS/ 
OTHER FOREIGN SOURCE MATERIALS^ REPORTS OF U.S. AGRICULTURAL ATTACHES AND FOREIJN SERVICE 
OFFICERS/ RESULTS OF OFFICE RESEARCH AND REL«TED INFORMATION. 

COMMODITY 'ROGRAMS/ FAS/ USOA GRAIN »NC FEED DIVISION 



27 



WORLD RICE 1/ 
SUPPLY/DEMAND 1960/61 - 1985/86 
i*^ILLION ^lETRIC TONS /H ECTA RES 

AREA YIELD 2/ PRODUCTION - - CAL YR UTILIZATION ENDING STOCKS AS 

HARVESTED "^OUGH MILLED EXPORTS TOTAL 3/ STOCKS 4/ X OF UTIL 



1 960/61 






1 ?0. 1 






1 .95 




233.8 


160.0 


6.5 


160.3 


8.0 


5.0 


1 961/62 






113.7 






1 . S6 




21 5.7 


147.3 


6.3 


147.7 


7.0 


4. 8 


1 962/63 






119.6 






1 . 91 




228.2 


155.2 


7.3 


155.3 


6.9 


4.4 


1 963/64 






121.5 






2.05 




248.4 


169,1 


7.7 


1 67. 2 


8.7 


5.2 


1 964/65 






125.3 






2.12 




265.6 


180.8 


8.2 


1 77. 8 


11.8 


6.6 


1 965/66 






124.0 






2.05 




254.2 


173.3 


7.9 


173.1 


12.0 


6.9 


1 966/67 






125.7 






. 09 




262.5 


179.3 


7. 8 


1 80.7 


10.6 


5.9 


1967/63 






127.0 






2.19 




277.8 


1 89.4 


7.2 


136.6 


13.4 


7.2 


1 963/69 






1 2S.7 






2. 23 




287.0 


1 95.6 


7.5 


192.3 


16.7 


8. 7 


1 969/70 






131.4 






2.25 




295.9 


201 . 6 


8.2 


199.7 


18.6 


9. 3 


1 970/71 






132.7 






2. 36 




313.5 


213.6 


8.6 


214.5 


17.7 


8.3 


1 971 /72 






13 4.3 






2.35 




317.5 


216.4 


8.7 


218.8 


15.4 


7.0 


1 972/73 






132.7 






2.31 




307.2 


209.6 


8.4 


21 4.6 


10.4 


4.8 


1 973/74 






13 6.6 






2.45 




334.7 


228.0 


7.7 


225.9 


12.5 


,5-5 


1 974/75 






137.9 






2.41 




332 . 0 


226.3 


7.3 


228.2 


10.7 


4.7 


1975/76 






142.7 






2.51 




35S.6 


243.9 


8.4 


235.3 


19.3 


8.2 


1 976/77 






141 .4 






2.46 




348.3 


236.9 


10.6 


238.4 


17.8 


7.4 


1977/7 3 






143.4 






2.5a 




370. 0 


251 .4 


9.6 


246. 4 


22.3 


9.2 


1973/79 






144.1 






2.69 




387. 6 


263.7 


12.0 


258.6 


27.9 


10.8 


1979/SO 






141.5 






2.5? 




378.6 


258.1 


12.7 


262.6 


23.4 


8.9 


1 980/b1 






1 44.4 






2.76 




393.9 


271 .0 


13.1 


272.3 


22.1 


8.1 


1931/82 






145.1 






2.34 




412.7 


280.6 


11.8 


281 .5 


21.3 


7.6 


1932/83 






Ul .2 






2.97 




419.5 


285.7 


11.9 


289.6 


17.3 


6.0 


1933/34 






144.2 






3.14 




452.7 


308.0 


12.6 


308.1 


17.2 


5.6 


1934/35 


5/ 




143.9 






3.25 




467.6 


313.5 


11.2 


314.1 


21 .6 


6.9 


1935/36 


6/ 




142.7 






3.23 




460.9 


313.7 


11.4 


312.2 


23.1 


7.4 


NOTE: STOCKS AS 


PERCENT 


OF 


UTILIZATION 


REPRESENT THE RATIO OF MARKETING YEAR ENDING STOCKS 


TO 


TOTAL UTILIZATION. 






















1/ PRODUCTION 


IS 


EXPRESS 


ED 


ON BOTH 


ROUGH AND 


MILLED BASES 


; STOCKS/ 


EXPORTS/ AND UTILIZATION 


ARE 


EXPRESSED OM 


A -BILLED 


3 


ASIS. 
















2/ YIELDS 


ARE 


3AS=0 ON R0U3M 


PRODUCTION. 












3/ FOR COUNTRI 


: 3 


FDR WHI 


CH 


STOCKS 


DATA 


ARE NOT AVAILABLE 


UTILIZATION ESTIMATES 


REPRESENT 




"APPAR 


ENT" 


UTILIZATION/ 


I 


.E. THEY INCLUDE 


ANNUAL STOCK 


LEVEL ADJUSTMENTS. 






4/ STOCKS 


DATA 


ARE 3AScD 


ON 


AN A53 


REGATE OF DIFFERING »1ARKET YEARS 


AND SHOULD 


NOT BE CONSTRUED A 


R6PRES 


ENiTIN 


■J 


WOPLD ST 




K 


LEVELS 


AT 


A FIXED 


POINT IN TIS'E. STOCKS DATA ARE 


NOT AVAILABLE 


FOR 


ALL C0'J:>ITRI 


E 3 


AND EXCLUDE 


THE USSR/ 


CHINA/ 


NORTH KOREA 


AND PARTS 


OF EASTERN 


EUROPE. 





5/ PRcLIiMINARY. 
6/ PROJECTION. 

SOURCES: PREPARED OR ESTI'^ATED ON THE BASIS OF OFFICIAL STATISTICS OF FOREIGN GOVERNMENTS/ OTHER 
F0REI5N SOURCE YATEPIALS/ =^ZP0RT3 OF U.S. AGRICULTURAL ATTACHES AND FOREIGN SERVICE OFFICERS/ 
RESULTS OF OFFICE PESEARCH/ AND RELATED INFORMATION. 

COMMODITY "ROSRAMS/ FAS/ USDA GRAIN AND FEED DIVISION 



28 



WORLD TOTAL GRAINS 
SUPPLY/DEMAND 1960/61 - 1985/86 
?«ILLIONS OF METRIC TOMS/HECTARES 







A EA 


YIELD 


PRODUCTIOM 


WO RLD 


UTILIZATION 


ENDING 


STOCKS 






HARV~STr:> 






TRADE 1/ 


TOTAL 2/ 


ST<S 3/ 


X OF UT 


1 960/61 




£ i £ ^ 

646. 7 


1.31 


B46 . 3 


72.4 


332.3 


4 A A / 

199.4 


23.9 


1 961 /62 




641 ,6 


1.26 


806 . j 


83.2 


A *9 T ^ 

S^3.3 


4^4 f\ 

171.9 


20.6 


1 952/63 




£ f ^ § 

647.4 


A ^ / 

1.74 


£ £ t* 


82.7 


S64.9 


1 73 . 5 


A 4 

20.1 


1 963/64 




65 2.0 


1.33 


870.7 


97. 7 


869.9 


4 7/ P 

1 74 . 5 


^ ft 4 

20.1 


1 964/65 




£ £ *9 O 

yJ ^ m i 


1.39 


9 24.3 


9 5.3 


A 4 A O 

91 9. 8 


4 ^ A A 

1 79, J 


4 A C 

19.5 


1 965/66 




65 .6 


1.40 


921 . :> 


4 4 n A 


V 5 :> . 2 


4 / ^ / 

142.4 


4 / ft 

14.9 


1966/67 




0 6 0 • ^ 


1.52 


1 006 . 4 


103.7 


A G A A 

9 ? 0 . 0 


4 ' ft 

1 0 3 . 9 


4 7 ^ 

17.2 


1 967/63 




67<?.7 


A e I 

1.54 


1037.3 


r'^ ^ A 

97.1 


4 n 4 "9 / 

1017.4 


4 d A 9 

139.3 


4 S Z 

1 S.6 


1 968/69 




67 S. 4 


A P ^ 

1.59 


1 077.2 


89.5 


1 046 .7 


2 21.7 


^4 A 

<:1 . 2 


1969/70 




679.6 


1.50 


1 0s7. 2 


97.3 


4 4 A A ^ 

1 1 C2 • 3 


A A Z Z 

206.6 


4ft O 

18.8 


1970/71 




6 7 1 . u 


A ft 


A A fS ^ P 

1102.5 


109.6 


4 4/? O 

1143.8 


A * S A 

1 0 i . ? 


4 / / 

14.4 


A /\^ A # ^ ^ 

1971/72 




5 8 1) • 2 


1.76 


1196.5 


A A r\ A 

110.0 


4 4 *9 <d C 

1178.5 


183.3 


AT £ 

15.6 


1 972/73 




65y. 5 


1.73 


1160.9 


134.6 


4 A A 4 A 

1201.2 


4 / ^ B 

142.8 


4 4 A 

11.9 


1973/74 




697.8 




1272.6 


4/4 Z 

141.6 


1266.3 


4 / O 

1 4? . 5 


4 4 ^ 

11.7 


4 ^ ^ / / ^ 

1 97^/75 




6 9 . 8 


4 *7 / 

1.74 


4^47 *7 

1217.7 


136.6 


1229.2 


4 7 P / 

135.4 


4 4 ft 

11.0 


1 a C 1 "9 C 

\ yJofJo 




7 1 " • 4 


4 ^ / 

1.74 


1 i 4 6. 7 


4 er r> i 
1 5 3 


1 2 3 7 . S 


4 / *) 4 

142.1 


4 4 e 

11.^ 


1 976/77 




71 y . 


1 . 9 J 


4 ? ^ 7 4 

1363.1 


4 C ^ *7 

15 7.7 


(309.7 


4 ft C O 

1 5 5 . c 


4 C ft 

15.0 


1 977/73 






4 O 7 

1 . ?7 


4 T T "7 O 

1 337.2 


4 7 4 O 


1 33b . 9 


193.7 


4 / / 

14.4 


1 973/7? 




716.7 


2.04 


1465.7 


176.7 


1439.2 


2 ?C . 9 


4 C C 

15.5 


1979/80 




713.0 


2.00 


1426.5 


197.9 


1450.2 


197.2 


13.6 


19aO/31 




723,3 


2.00 


1446.3 


215.2 


1461.1 


I!'?. 2 


12.6 


1931/82 




733.9 


2.04 


149S.9 


209.8 


1462.8 


21 9.2 


15.0 


19S2/33 




717.9 


2.15 


1544.1 


200.5 


1511.1 


252.2 


16.7 


1933/84 




707. 6 


2.10 


1484. 3 


206.5 


1551.3 


134.7 


12.0 


1934/35 


4/ 


714.3 


2.?0 


16+1.2 


220.3 


1591.6 


2'4.1 


At *V 

14.7 


1935/S6 


5/ 


715.1 


2.32 


1658.3 


196.3 


1594.0 


29S.4 


13.8 


! "STOCKS A1 


PERCENT OF UTILIZATION" 


REPRESENT 


THE RATIO 


OF MARKETING YEAR 


ENDING 



NOTE 
STOCKS TO 



TOTAL UTILIZATION. 



1/ 



2/ 



3/ 



4/ 
5/ 



TRAOc DATA AS EXPRESSED IN THI« TA3LE EXCLUDE INTRA-EC TRADE. WHEAT AND COARSE GRAINS 
ARE ON A JULY/JUNE 3ASIS TH=!OUGH 1975/7-^. F*0?1 1976/77 ON/ THE TRADE YEAR FOR 
COARSE 3RAINS IS 0CT0S£R/SE!»TE?«3ER . 

FOR COUNTRIES FOR WHICH STOCKS DATA ARE NOT AVAILABLE (EXCLUDING THE USSR) UTILIZATION 
ESTIMATES REPRESENT "APPARENT" UTILIZATION/ I.E. INCLUDE ANNUAL STOCK LEVEL ADJUSTMENTS. 
STOCKS DATA ARE 3ASED ON AN AGGREGATE OF DIFFERING LOCAL MARKETING YEARS AND SHOULD NOT 
3£ CONSTRUED AS REPRESENTING WORLD STOCK LEVELS AT A FIXED POINT IN TI/^E. STOCKS DATA 
ARE NOT AVAILABLE FOR ALL COUNTRIES AND EXCLUDE THOSE SUCH AS THE PEOPLE'S REPUBLIC OF 
CHINA AND PARTS OF EASTERN EUPO«>E. WORLD STOCK LEVELS HAVE SEEN ADJUSTED FOR ESTIMSTED 



YEAR-TO-YEAR CHANGES IN USSR 
LEVEL OF USSR GRAIN STOCKS. 
PRELIMINARY. 
PROJECTION. 



SRAIN STOCKS/ BUT DO NOT PURPORT TO INCLUDE. THE ABSOLUTE 



SOURCES: PREPARED OR ESTIMATED ON THE 3ASIS OF OFFICIAL STATISTICS OF FOREIGN GO VE RNME^<TS/ 
OTHER FOREIGN SOURCE MATERIALS/ REPORT? OF U.S. AGRICULTURAL ATTACHES AND FOREIGN SERVICE 
OFFICERS/ RESULTS OF OFFICE RESEARCH AND RELATED INFORMATION. 



COMMODITY PROGRAMS/ FAS/ USDA 



GRAIN AND FEED DIVISION 



29 



EXPORT PRICES FOR WHEAT AND CORN JANUARY 1981-JANUARY 1986 
(BASIS FOB, U.S. DOLLARS PER METRIC TON) 











WHEAT 




CORN 








U.S. 


ARGENTINA 


CANADA 


AUSTRALIA 


U.S. 


ARGENTINA 






GULF 




VANCOUVER 1/ 


STD. WHITE 


GULF 








#2 H.W. 




#1 CWRS 12.5 




#3 Yellow 




1981 


CY 


177 


189 


212 


175 


134 


137 


1982 


CY 


162 


166 


187 


160 


110 


109 


1983 


CY 


158 


138 


185 


161 


137 


133 


1984 


CY 


153 


135 


186 


153 


138 


132 


1985 


CY 


138 


108 


178 


140 


113 


102 


1985 
















Jan 




149 


109 2/ 


181 


153 


121 


108 3/ 


Feb 




149 


111 


179 


150 


120 


106 3/ 


Mar 




146 


114 


179 


149 


121 


109 


Apr 




146 


113 


181 


148 


122 


110 


May 




137 


112 


180 


145 


118 


109 


June 




134 


107 4/ 


178 


141 


117 


111 


July 




130 


107 


171 


134 


114 


112 


Aug 




124 


98 


163 


128 


103 


101 5/ 


Sep 




128 


93 


165 


131 


103 


88 


Oct 




130 


92 


173 


134 


100 


90 


Nov 




136 


98 


181 


139 


108 


95 


Dec 


03 


136 


105 


1 oo 

loJ 


141 


1 1 o 

llz 


97 


Dec 


10 


140 


114 


184 


144 


110 


99 


Dec 


17 


141 


114 


185 


143 


112 


99 


Dec 


24 


140 


117 


185 


145 


112 


102 


Dec 


31 


139 


118 


185 


146 


111 


102 


Jan 


07 


136 


113 


184 


141 


110 


101 



1/ In Store Export Elevator 
2/ Jan-Feb-Mar 85 
3/ Apr-May- June 85 

4/ This and later prices are for Jan-Feb-Mar 1986 delivery. 
5/ This and later prices are for Apr-May- Jun 1986 delivery. 



30 



SELECTED WORLD GRAIN PRICES, CIF ROTTERDAM 1/ 
Wheat Marketing Years 1970/71 - 1985/86 
(In U.S. dollars per metric ton) 



Wheat Com 





U.S. No. 2 Dark 


Canadian 


U.S. No. 3 




Northern Spring 


Western Red 


Yellow 




4 to/ 

14% 


Spring 13 1/2% 


Corn 


1970/71 (July- June) 




74.15 ^/ 


69.10 


1971/72 (July- June) 


69.75 


72.45 


57.00 


1972/73 (July- June) 


100.15 


101.95 


77.10 


1973/74 (July-June) 


202.95 


214.40 


132.90 


1974/75 (July- June) 


204.25 


209.70 


144.80 


1975/76 (July- June) 


186.86 


195 . 85 


128.80 


1976/77 (June^y) 


147.05 


149.55 


122.00 


V^llll^ (June-May) 


131.30 


140.85 


105.80 


191%/ 1"^ (June-May) 


153.70 


165.20 


116.60 


1979/80 (June-May) 


199.65 


N/A 


138.20 


1980/81 (June^y) 


218.45 


N/A 


164.15 


1981/82 (June-May) 


193.90 


215.30 


135.40 


1982/83 (June^4ay) 


178.45 


198.85 


125.25 


1983/84 (June-May) 


186.40 


201.50 


157.90 


1984/85 (JuneH4ay) 


175.69 


180.34 


139.43 


1985/86 








June 


165.80 


183.25 


128.50 


July 


155.90 


166.25 


125.65 


Aug 


148.00 


156.63 


114.75 


Sep 


155.75 


159.75 4/ 


113.40 


Oct 


168.20 


184.10 


111.40 


Nov 


177.1 


189.30 


118.25 


Dec 03 


177.00 


N.Q. 


122.50 


10 


181.00 


N.Q. 


122.50 


17 


181.00 


N.Q. 


112.75 


24 


N/A 


N/A 


N/A 


31 


N/A 


N/A 


N/A 


Jan 07 


179.00 


N.Q. 


119.00 



T7 Asking prices for Rotterdam 30-day delivery, as shown by Hamburg 
Mercantile Exchange. 

1/ Prior to September 1971 prices for No. 2 Manitoba Northern. 
3/ April^lay shipment 
4^/ First two weeks only. 



31 



WORLD WHEAT EXPORT PRICES 
(BASIS FOB, U.S. DOLLARS PER METRIC TON) 




WORLB CORN EXPORT PRICES 
(BASIS FOB. U.S. DOLLARS PER METRIC TON) 




^s* jS^ ^ -a? tf.^ <1 If' -i^ 1 



U.8. eULF t3 YC 



ARSENTIfM 

9 



TIME 



32 



LU 
Q 
< 



<: 
ui 




< < 

LU M 



13 




s 









I 1 




■ 























o 

in 



o 



o 
o 



01 



^^^^ 



s 



z 
o 



CD r: 

Ll. cj 
Q_ 




< < 

■» -J 



Q 

ZD 
CO 




33 



FOOTNOTES TO WORLD GRAIN SUMMARY AND TRADE TABLES 



1) Includes wheat flour and products. 

2) Argentina, Australia, Canada, South Africa, and Thailand. 

3) Adjusted for transshipment through Canadian ports: excludes products other 
than flour. 

4) Wheat, rye, corn, barley, oats, sorghum, millet, and mixed grains. 

5) Production data includes all harvest occurring within the July- June year 
indicated, except that small grain crops from the early harvesting Northern 
Hemisphere areas are "moved forward;" i.e., the May 1984 harvests in areas 
such as India, North Africa and southern United States are actually 
included in "1984/85" accounting period which begins July 1, 1984, for 
wheat or October 1, 1984, for coarse grains. 

6) "Bunker weight" basis; not discounted for excess moisture and foreign 
material . 

7) Utilization data are based on an aggregate of differing local marketing 
years. For countries for which stocks data are not available (excluding 
the USSR) utilization estimates represent "apparent" utilization; i.e., 
they are inclusive of annual stock level adjustments. 

8) Stocks data are based on aggregate of differing local marketing years and 
should not be construed as representing world stock level at a fixed point 
in time. Stocks data are not available for all countries and exclude those 
such as the People's Republic of China, and parts of Eastern Europe: The 
world stock levels have been adjusted for estimated year-to-year changes in 
the USSR grain stocks, but do not purport to include the entire absolute 
level of USSR stocks. 

9) Inclusive of Soviet stock changes; see footnote 8. 



This circular was prepared by the Grain and Feed Division, Commodity Programs, 
FAS/USDA, Washington, D.C. 20250. Further information may be obtained by 
writing the Division or telephoning (202) 447-2009. 

Note: The previous report in the series was World Grain Situation/Outlook : 
Foreign Agriculture Circular FG-5-85 December 1985. For further details on 
the world grain production and USSR outlook see "World Crop Production" 
Foreign Agriculture Circular WCP-1-86, January 10, 1986, and "USSR Grain 
Situation and Outlook" Foreign Agriculture Circular SG-1-86, January 1986. 



34 



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J 



Foreign Agriculture Circuiar o 

Grains 



FG-2-86 
FEBRUARY 1986 



World Grain Situation and Outlook 



This month's cover graphs illustrate the change in the U.S. loan rate for the 
upcoming 1986 wheat crop, and how this change relates to recent support levels in 
other exporting countries, such as Canada and the European Community (EC). For 
comparison, the U.S. loan rate is shown both in U.S. dollars and the competing 
country's currency. 

As this stage of the season, the United States is normally the only major export 
country to have announced its support rate for the upcoming crop. In 1985, the EC 
intervention price was roughly a third higher than the U.S. loan rate but, in 
1986, that gap could more than double (at current exchange rates), if, as 
expected, the EC intervention price remains approximately unchanged. Should the 
ECU continue strengthening against the dollar, the gap would be even larger. 
These conditions would either cause EC wheat to be less competitive on the world 
market, or force a sharp increase in export subsidy costs. The situation for 
Canada is somewhat parallel, in that if the initial payment is not reduced for 
1986, the Wheat Board's export prices might become less competitive unless some 
kind of subsidy assistance is introduced. In Canada's case however, the Canadian 
dollar has been weakening relative to the U.S. currency and a continuation of this 
would tend to reduce any need to follow the U.S. loan rate downward. 

CHANGE IN U.S. WHEAT LOAN RATE FOR 1986 



VS EC INTERVENTION PRICE 



VS CANADIAN INITIAL PAYMENT 



PRICE/MT 
195 r 



180 - 



165 - 



150 



135 - 



120 



105 



90 - 



EC INTERVEKTION 
(ECU) 




PRICE/MT 
195 



180 



^ U.S. LOAN (ECU) 



U.S. LOAN ($) 



165 



150 - 



135 



120 - 



105 - 



90 - 




CANADIAN INITIAL \ 
(C *) \ 



\ U.S. LOAN (C *) 



U.S. LOAN ($) 



82 83 84 85 

CROP YEAR 



86 



82 83 84 85 

CROP YEAR 



86 



NOTE: Supporting data, footnotes, and a further graph for Australia appear on page 8, 



Approved by the World Agricultural Outlook Board - USDA 



February 12, 1986 



CONTENTS Page 

World Grain Outlook 3 

World Wheat Outlook 4 

World Coarse Grain Outlook 5 

World Rice Outlook 7 



TABLES 

Importing Countries Self-Sufficiency (Cover Data) 8 

World Summary Tables: Wheat and Coarse Grains, Wheat, 

Coarse Grains, Rice, Corn, Sorghum, and Barley 9-15 

World Wheat and Flour Trade 16 

World Coarse Grain Trade 17 

World Rice Trade 18 

European Community: Grain Supply-Disappearance 19 

Eastern Europe: Grain Supply-Disappearance 20 

USSR and China: Grain Supply-Disappearance 21 

Wheat: Supply-Disappearance for Selected Major Exporters 22 

Coarse Grains: Supply-Disappearance for Selected Major Exporters 23 

U.S.: Wheat and Coarse Grains 24 

U.S.: Wheat, Corn, Sorghum, Barley, Oats and Rye Supply-Disappearance .. 25 

U.S.: Rice Supply-Distribution 26 

World Wheat and Coarse Grain Supply/Demand 27 

World Rice Supply/Demand 28 

World Total Grains Supply/Demand 29 

Weekly Export Prices for Wheat and Corn: U.S., Canada, 

Australia, and Argentina 30 

Selected World Grain Prices, CIF Rotterdam 31 

Footnotes to World Grain Summary Tables 32 



2 



**WORLD GRAIN SITUATION/ OUTLOOK** 

The world grain situation in recent weeks has begun to be aominated by a 
series of transitional forces and changes associated with new legislation for 
grain programs in the United States. Since the effect of these program 
changes is to lower floor prices for both the United States and the world 
markets, an unusual bulge in volume of export shipments has begun to occur in 
exporting countries other than the United States, at least those which have 
sufficient supply and latitude to choose between shipping more grain 
immediately rather than later when world prices might be lower. The unusual 
transitional effects may also exist on the demand side, in terms of the pace 
of purchases by importing countries for nearby delivery, but it appears that 
this aspect is of lesser magnitude than the shift on the exporter side. This 
is simply because many importing countries have already been tending to 
operate on a hand-to-mouth basis for much of the past year. These 
extraordinary short-term adjustments, both on the part of non-U. S. exporting 
countries as well as the importing countries tend to cut into U.S. export 
volume and could result in a significant temporary dip in U.S. shipments. 



One example of the sudden enlargement of shipments by non-U. S. origins is the 
European Community (EC), whose export licenses for wheat, including flour, 
have been growing very rapidly and now exceed the year-ago level by nearly 3 
million tons. Another example is Australia, where wheat shipments in January 
of 1.7 million tons were a record January level. 



Another major aevelopment of recent weeks, also partly related to the 
transitional circumstances, was a series of actions putting Government stocks 
back onto the market. Earlier, because of declining Argentine wheat and 
Brazilian corn crop prospects, wheat quality problems in Canada and Europe, 
and limited free-stocks supplies of wheat in the United States, there was 
considerable likelihood of temporary strengthening of prices in spite of the 
probability of generally lower levels for 1986/87. But substantial stocks 
from EC intervention have recently been released onto the market, and in the 
United States there have been decisions to use Government stocks in lieu of 
cash payments for diversion and acreage reduction programs. With these 
developments, the earlier expectations of late-season strengthening of world 
prices have considerably diminished. 



Although this on-going adjustment is currently more apparent in world wheat 
markets, a similar transitional adjustment is emerging for coarse grains. For 
feed purposes, coarse grains may face additional competition from sharply 
lower priced wheat this summer and large supplies of feed-quality wheat which 
may allow some coarse grain importers to increase wheat feeding and/or further 
defer coarse grain purchases. World rice markets will likely also experience 
considerable uncertainity as they, too, adjust to expected lower U.S. prices. 

Apart from these transition-related changes, there have been other significant 
adjustments in the outlook. This month alone, world corn availabilities have 
increased nearly 6 million tons. Sharply higher Argentine corn supplies and 
lower sorghum production will likely increase market uncertainity between 
sorghum and other feed grains. Forecasts for Brazilian corn and rice imports, 
rose sharply as the Brazilian government attempts to limit rising domestic 
prices and speculation. However, total Brazilian import demand remains 
unclear due to the uncertainity surrounding available credit, coarse grain 
prices, and the timing of the Brazilian corn crop. 



3 



**WHEAT** 



The forecast for world wheat trade declined nominally this month to 90 million 
tons, based in part, on smaller Argentine export availabilities. Previously, 
declining Argentine wheat supplies, weather-related problems in the Canadian 
harvest, limited availabilities of high-quality, new-crop EC wheat, and tight 
free-market supplies in the United States, were all factors expected to result 
in the seasonal strengthening of world wheat prices until new-crop supplies 
become available. However, significant releases of EC intervention stocks, 
and recent U.S. announcements on loan rates and early wheat payment s-in -kind 
to participating producers have thus far offset any such temporary price 
strength and may result in an accelerated adjustment to the new loan rates. 
Wheat prices in the United States declined in January as a response to lagging 
demand, expectations that free market supplies will be larger than earlier 
forecast, and the newly announced 1986 loan rate of $88 a ton. The release of 
significant quantities of EC intervention stocks has also contributed to 
weaker world wheat prices by covering a portion of the EC's import demand and 
freeing current supplies for an aggressive export marketing program. 



MAJOR IMPORTING COUNTRIES 



World wheat import demand, while down only marginally from last month, is 
nearly 16 percent below the 1984/85 estimate. This month, the import 
forecasts for Iran and Iraq were cut 500,000 and 300,000 tons, respectively, 
as purchases continue to fall far short of earlier expectations. The wheat 
import forecast for the European Community was cut 500,000 tons to 2.2 million 
tons, unchanged from the 1984/85 figure. The Community apparently intends to 
cover high-quality wheat shortages with unusual releases of intervention 
stocks and their redistribution to other EC countries. 



The significant difference in this year's world wheat trade forecast and the 
1984/85 trade figure can be, to a large extent, explained by sharply reduced 
demand in the Soviet Union, Brazil, and China. Improved outturn is at least 
part of the reason that these countries have cut their import needs. For the 
world excluding these countries, the 1985/86 wheat import forecast is expected 
to decline only 4 percent from the 1984/85 level. 



MAJOR EXPORTING COUNTRIES 



Poor yields in southern Buenos Aires province and further indications of flood 
damage have lead to a million-ton decline in the Argentine wheat crop 
estimate. The crop, now forecast at 8.5 million tons, is more than 35 percent 
below last year's harvest. Smaller exportable supplies resulted in a 500,000- 
ton decline in the 1985/86 (July/June) import forecast to 6.1 million tons. 
Argentina has already announced that it will probably ship Brazil only 700,000 
tons of its 1 .4-million-ton, 1985/86 commitment. 



4 



The Canadian and Australian export forecasts remain unchanged at 17.5 and 15.7 
million tons, respectively. Despite a slow start which was complicated by the 
closing of the Welland Canal and reports of severe moisture damage during the 
harvest, current Canadian shipments are running only 1.5 million tons or 12 
percent behind last year at this time. The pace of shipments supports the 
current 1985/86 forecast which is 10 percent below the 1984/85 level. The 
Australians have also launched a very aggressive marketing program with 
unexpectedly large sales to the Soviet Union, Egypt, and China, and although 
total marketing year shipments to date lag last year, an accelerating pace 
resulted in a record January level of 1.7 million tons, some 700,000 tons 
greater than the same month last year. 



EUROPEAN COMMUNITY 



The 1985/86 wheat export forecast for the European Community remains unchanged 
at 17.5 million tons despite the issuance of record levels of wheat and flour 
export licenses and the release of significant quantities of intervention 
stocks. Current marketing year licenses (August 1985 - January 1986) total 
10.2 million tons as compared to 7.5 million tons for the same period last 
year. Although the current pace of licenses would appear to support an 
increase in the current EC export forecast, expectations are that tightening 
domestic supplies, limited world demand, and increased foreign competition 
will slow the pace of issuance for the remainder of the year. The wheat 
import forecast, on the other hand, declined 500,000 tons as import licenses 
lag last year at this time by nearly 40 percent and recent intervention stock 
releases are apparently being used to cover domestic shortages. 



U.S. TRADE PROSPECTS 



The 1985/86 wheat export forecast for the United States was unchanged this 
month at 26.7 million tons, the lowest level in 10 years. The announcement of 
early wheat payment- in-kind for producers participating in the 1986 program 
may contribute to larger free-market supplies in the upcoming months. Prices 
which have strengthened from late summer lows, declined throughout much of 
January but may stabilize as foreign supplies tighten and U.S. wheat continues 
to move under loan. Despite lagging sales in the current season, the easing 
of free-market supplies by the newly announced payment- in-kind program, and 
lower Argentine availabilities should add supports to the current U.S. 
forecast. 



**COARSE GRAINS** 



Forecast world coarse grain trade rose slightly this month to 95 million 
tons. However, there were significant adjustments in the forecast for 
Brazilian corn imports and in South African corn supplies, and Argentine corn 
and sorghum export availabilities. World corn supplies are up nearly 6 
million tons from last month's forecast while the only notable increase in 
demand was for Brazil. Expectations of sharply reduced Argentine sorghum 
exportable supplies may mean increased substitution of corn and other feed 
grains by sorghum importers, such as Japan. 



5 



MAJOR IMPORTING COUNTRIES 



Expectations of a delayed Brazilian corn crop are apparently responsible for 
significantly larger imports this season. For 1985/86 (October/ September ) 
Brazil is currently expected to import nearly 3 million tons, 1 million tons 
more than last month. This reflects current purchases from the United States 
of 1 million tons, available U.S. credit for the purchase of approximately an 
additional million tons, and recent purchases of roughly 600,000 tons of 
Argentine corn. Final 1985/86 Brazilian corn imports will be impacted by the 
actual timing of the current crop (normally harvested in March^, the extent of 
domestic price increases and speculation, as well as the government's decision 
to increase coarse grain stocks. 

The East European barley import forecast rose sharply this month, following 
large, unexpected purchases from the EC. The 1985 crop was severely drought 
damaged causing reduced domestic availaoilities and increased import demand. 
Earlier reports, however, had indicated that these imports woula be limited by 
hard currency restrictions. 

MAJOR EXPORTING COUNTRIES 

The Argentine sorghum crop estimate was reduced 1 million tons to 4.5 million 
tons, as the shift from sorghum to corn acreage was more fully realized. As 
the second largest sorghum exporter, Argentina has recently exported between 
3-5 million tons annually. In 1985/86 sorghum exports are forecast at less 
than 3 million tons. Therefore, some sorghum importing countries may 
increasingly substitute feed wheat, other coarse grains, and non-grain feed 
ingredients for sorghum. 

The 1985/86 coarse grain export forecast for China was increased 400,000 tons 
on reports indicating intentions to continue strong corn and sorghum shipments 
to Japan. The European Community's coarse grain export program was 
highlighted this month by large barley sales to Eastern Europe and the 
continuing redistribution of French corn within the Community. 

U.S. TRADE PROSPECTS 

The U.S. coarse grain export forecast remains unchanged at 49.1 million tons, 
as improved prospects for U.S. corn exports to Brazil ana the possible 
substitution for Argentine sorghum have been off-set by lagging U.S. coarse 
grain sales to several destinations. Brazilian purchases of U.S. corn in 
1985/86 (October / September ) have already reached nearly a million tons as 
compared to about 130,000 tons at this time last year. Several factors will 
influence additional U.S. corn sales to Brazil, including 1) the timing and 
size of the Brazilian corn crop, 2) the utilization and availability of 
credit, 3) relative price competitiveness with Argentine corn, 4) the 
government's decision to balance the price-limiting, sizable purchases with 
the inflationary use of hard currency, and 5) the government's decision on 
building corn stocks. 



6 



**RICE** 



The 1985/86 world rice production 
essentially the same as last month, 
forecasts for Australia and the Phil 
movement in the forecast for Brazil. 



forecast of 461 million tons remains 
Small upward adjustments were made to 
ippines, which were offset by downward 



The estimate for world rice trade in CY 1985 was increased slightly to over 
11.3 million tons this month, reflecting preliminary year-end exports from 
Pakistan and Burma. World trade for CY 1986 is now expected to increase to 
almost 11.5 million tons, reflecting increased import activity by Brazil. In 
contrast to a very gloomy trade outlook some months ago, the picture has 
brightened somewhat. Brazil and Peru appear to be significant demand factors 
during this calendar year. Trade in the low quality rice markets has been 
very active this year, particularly exports by Thailand and Indonesia. High 
quality buyers are taking only maintenance quantities, apparently waiting on 
the implementation of the Food Security Act of 1985. 

Adjustments to CY 1986 world trade forecasts, based on changes regarding the 
new U.S. farm legislation have not been made yet this calendar year. New CY 
1986 trade forecasts will not be made until the Department of Agriculture 
announces the "world market price" for rice as specified in the new program. 



MAJOR IMPORTING COUNTRIES 



Imports by Brazil are now forecast to reach 600,000 tons in CY 1986. The 
increase comes after several large purchases by Brazil, and the assesment that 
the drought has had an impact on the current rice crop. 



MAJOR EXPORTING COUNTRIES 



Export estimate for Pakistan was increased to 961,000 tons in CY 1985, after 
two very stong final months. The CY 1985 export estimate for Burma was also 
increased, up to 450,000 tons. The CY 1986 export forecast for Indonesia was 
increased to 300,000 tons, to reflecting large sales to Vietnam and Italy 
early this year. 



U.S. TRADE PROSPECTS 



The CY 1986 export forecast remains unchanged at 1.8 million tons, although 
this number could change significantly in coming months as the impact ot tne 
new farm program becomes more certain. 



7 



CHANGE IN U.S. WHEAT LOAN RATE FOR 1986 

VS AUSTRALIAN GUARANTEED MINIMUM PRICE 



PRICEyW 
195 r 



180 - 



165 



IS) 



135 



120 



105 



90 




82 



/ \ 
/ \ 
/ \ 

\ 

\ 

\ 

J \ 

^ \ 

AUSmtlAN \ 
aJARANTEED MINIMUM \ 
(A *) \ 



\ U.S. LOAN (A *) 



U.S. LOAN («) 



83 



84 

CROP YEAR 



85 



86 



CHANGE IN ^HEAT LOAN RATE FDR 1986 
(SUPPORTINS DATA) 



yS EC INTERVENTION PRICE 



V£ CANADIAN INITIAL PAYHENT VS AUSTRALIAN SUARANTEED fllNIHUH PRICE 



CROP 
YEAR 

82 
83 
84 
85 
86 



EC 

U.S. INTERVENTION U.S. 
LOAN PRICE LOAN 
-I /TON ECU /TON 



ECU/$ 
Ave. JAN. 



/I 



CANADIAN 
INITIAL U.S. 
PAYHENT LOAN 
— -C $/TON 



C $/$ 
AVS. JAN. /i 



147 /2 


179 


1 C7 
1 JO 


1.0417 


175 


182 


1.2369 


134 


185 


168 


1.2500 


170 


167 


1.2493 


121 


1S3 


172 


1.4245 


160 


160 


1.3237 


121 


100 


136 


1.1200 


160 


171 


1.4100 


88 


N/A 


99 


1.1200 /4 


N/A 


124 


1.4100 /4 



AUSTRALIAN 
GUARANTEED U.S. 
MINIHUH PRICE LOAN 

-A $/TON 

141 



146 
147 

N/A 



151 
146 
148 
173 
126 



A M% 
AVS. JAN. /I 

1.0290 
1.0896 
1.2257 
1.4287 
1.4287 /4 



1/ Based on prevailing rate in January ot crop year. 

2/ Reserve loan. 

3/ Prelifiiinary. 

4/ Based on prevailing rate in January 1986. 



NOTE: Different countries' support prices are not fully comparable because of both 
differences in wheat quality and the location at which the support price is 
offered. 

EC Intervention Price: Price at which member governments stand ready to buy soft 
wheat from producers at designated market or intervention centers. 

Canadian Initial Payment: Price (calculated on basis of No. 1 CWRS) received by 
farmers for wheat delivered to Thunder Bay or Vancouver. 

Australian Guaranteed Minimum Price: Price received by farmers at delivery 
(calculated on the basis of ASW in export position). 



8 



TOTAL WHEAT AND COARSE GRAINS 
TRADE YEARS* 1981/82 - 1985/86 
(IN MILLIONS OF f^ETRIC TONS) 



1981 /82 



1982/83 



1 983/84 



1984/85 



1 935/86 
JAN1 3 



1985/86 
FE911 



EXPORTS 1) 



SELECTED EXPORTERS 2) 

WEST EUROPE 

USSR 

OTHERS 


61 .7 
21 .2 
0-5 
7. 2 


61. 3 
22.6 
0.5 
10.0 


67.4 
22.3 
0.5 
9.0 


67.5 
29.9 
1.0 

15. a 


67.8 
28.1 
1.0 
12.2 


67. 2 
26.2 
1.0 
12.6 


TOTAL NON-US 


90.7 


94.6 


99. 3 


114.2 


109.0 


109.0 




107.2 


93. 9 


94.7 


93.6 


75.8 


75.8 


WORLD TOTAL 


197.9 


188.3 


193.9 


207.7 


1 84. 8 


134.8 


IMPORTS 
WEST EUROPE 
USSR 
J APAN 

EAST EUROPE 

CHINA 

OTHERS 


28.0 
39.9 
23.4 
12.4 
14.7 
79.5 


20.9 
31.2 
24.5 
9-4 
15.5 
86. 9 


1 9. 2 
32.4 
26.6 
8.0 
9.8 
97. 9 


14.4 
55.4 
26.3 
6.C 
7.5 
98. C 


13.1 

34.0 
26.9 
9.C 
6. 8 
95.0 


12.1 
34.0 
26.9 
5.8 
6-8 
95.2 


WORLD TOTAL 


1 97-9 


188. 3 


193.9 


20 7. 7 


184.8 


184-8 


PRODUCTION 4) 5) 
SELECTED EXPORTERS 2) 
WEST EUROPE 
USSR 6) 
EAST EUROPE 
CHINA 
OTHERS 


114.0 
1 48. 8 
152.0 
95.1 
140.4 
245.5 


107.0 
161.9 
172.0 
106.7 
150.8 
233.9 


11 8.3 
154.1 

178.0 
102.5 
174.0 
246.3 


115.0 
191 .1 
159.0 
115.2 
183.3 
250.9 


115.6 
177.3 
177.0 
1 04.6 
170.9 
262.3 


115.6 
176. 8 
177.0 
104.6 
169.9 
263.1 


TOTAL NON-US 


895.8 


932.4 


973.3 


1 G1 4.4 


1007.7 


1 006 . 9 


U.S. 


322.4 


326. 0 


203.0 


308.3 


336.9 


340. 3 


WORLD TOTAL 


1218.3 


1 258.4 


11 76.5 


1322.7 


1344.6 


1 347.3 


UTILIZATION 4) 7) 
WEST EUROPE 
USSR 6) 
CHINA 

OTHERS 


159.3 

200.5 
154.8 
489.0 


157.4 
204.0 
166.4 
501.0 


158.4 
206.5 
183.4 
517.0 


161 .4 
207.0 
185.2 
529.1 


165.4 
204.0 
173.3 
538.5 


164.7 
204.0 
171 .9 
539.3 


TOTAL NON-US 


1003.5 


1 028.9 


1065.3 


1082.6 


1081 .2 


1079.9 


U.S. 


177.8 


192.5 


178.1 


195.2 


200.5 


195. 8 


WORLD TOTAL 


1181 .4 


1 221.4 


1243.4 


1 277.8 


1281.7 


1 275-7 


END STOCKS 4) 8) 
TOTAL FOREIGN 9) 
USSR: STKS CHG 
U.S. 


98.2 
-4.0 
99.8 


96. 2 
-1.0 

138.7 


97.9 
3.0 
69.8 


123.4 
6.0 
89.2 


1 23.7 
6.0 
151.6 


124.2 
6-0 
159-9 


WORLD TOTAL 


197.9 


234.9 


1 67.8 


212.6 


275.3 


284-1 


*: COMBINATION OF JULY/JUNE 
FOR COARSE GRAINS. 


TRADE 


YEARS FOR WHEAT 


AND OCTOBER/SEPTEMBER TRADE 


YEARS 




NOTE: FOOTNOTES 1 THROUGH 9 


APPEAR 


ON LAST PAGE OF 


CIRCULAR. 









SOURCE: PREPARED OR ESTIMATED ON THE BASIS OF OFFICIAL STATISTICS OF FOREIGN GOVERNMENTS, OTHER 
FOREIGN SOURCE *1ATERIALSx REPORTS OF U.S. AGRICULTURAL ATTACHES AND FOREIGN SERVICE OFFICERS, 
RESULTS OF OFFICE RESEARCH, AND RELATED INFORMATION. 



COMMODITY PROGRAMS, FAS, USDA 



9- 



WORLD WHEAT AND WHEAT FLOUR SSD TA9LE 
JULY/JUNE YEARS 1981/82 - 1985/36 
(IN MILLIONS OF METRIC TONS) 



EXPORTS 1) 
CANADA 
AUSTRALIA 
ARGENTINA 


1 981 / 32 

17.6 
11.0 
4.3 


1982/83 

21.4 
8.1 
7.5 


1 983/34 

21.8 
10.6 
9.7 


1984/85 

19.4 
15.3 

8 a C 


1985/86 
JAN1 3 

17.5 
1 5.7 
6.6 


1985/86 
FE811 

17.5 
15.7 
6.1 


SUBTOTAL 


32.9 


37.0 


42.0 


42.7 


39.8 


39.3 


EC-1G 

USSR 

OTHERS 


15.5 
0.5 
3.6 


15.6 
0.5 
5.6 


15.4 
0.5 
5.2 


17.5 
1 .C 
7.3 


17.5 
1 .C 
5.4 


17.5 
1.0 
5.5 


TOTAL NON-US 


52.5 


58. 7 


63.1 


63.5 


63.8 


63.3 


U.S. 3) 


48.8 


39.9 


38.9 


38.1 


26-7 


26.7 


WORLD TOTAL 


101 .3 


93.6 


102.0 


106.6 


90.4 


9C.0 


IMPORTS 
EC-10 
USSR 
J ARAN 

EAST EUROPE 

CHINA 

OTHERS 


4.7 
19.5 

5- 6 

6- 2 
13-2 
52.1 


3.9 
20-2 
5- 3 

4.5 
13.3 
51.2 


3.6 
20.5 
5.9 
3.8 
9.6 
58.7 


2.2 
28.1 
5.6 
2.6 
7.4 
60.7 


2.7 
17.0 
5.4 
4.C 
6.5 
54.8 


2.2 
17.0 
5.4 
4.0 
6.5 
54.9 


WORLD TOTAL 


101 .3 


98.6 


1 C2.0 


106. 6 


90. 4 


9C.0 


PRODUCTION 5) 
C ANAD A 
AUSTR ALIA 
A RGENTINA 
EC-10 
USSR 6) 
EAST EUROPE 
CHINA 
I NDI A 
OTHERS 


24-3 
16.4 
8-3 
54.4 
2 0.0 
30.6 
59.6 
36.3 
62.2 


26.7 
8.9 
15.0 
59.8 
86.0 
34,7 
63.4 
37.5 
66.9 


26.5 
22.0 
12.8 
59.2 
79.0 
35.4 
81.4 
42-8 
66.0 


21.2 
18.3 
13.2 
76.6 
73. C 
42.2 
87.8 
45.5 
66.4 


23.9 
16.5 
9.5 
66.2 
83-0 
37.4 
86.0 
44. 2 
71 . 5 


22.9 
16.5 
8.5 
66. 1 
83.0 
37.4 
86.0 
44. 2 
71 . 8 


TOTAL NON-US 


372.6 


4-3. 9 


425 .0 


444. 2 


438. 2 


437.4 


U.S. 


75. 3 


75.3 


65.9 


70.6 


66.0 


66.0 


WORLD TOTAL 


448.4 


479.1 


490.9 


514.8 


504.2 


503.4 


UTILIZATION 7) 
U.S. 

USSR 6) 

CHINA 

OTHERS 


23.1 
102.0 

72.3 
243.7 


24. 7 
105. 7 

31.4 
256.1 


3C.2 
97.0 
91 .0 
268.1 


31.4 
96.1 
95.2 
277.3 


30.2 
95.0 
92. 5 
276.5 


29.3 
95.0 
92.5 
276.7 


TOTAL NON-US 


41 5. 5 


443. 2 


456.0 


468.6 


464. C 


464. 2 


WORLD TOTAL 


441 .5 


467.9 


486.3 


50 0.C 


494. 2 


493.5 


END STOCKS 3) 
luiAL rUPtioN ^) 
USSR: STKS CHG 
U.S. 


-3.0 
31.5 


5 J 
0.0 
41.2 


2.0 
38.1 


f f . L 

4.0 

33. S 


f 0 . 5 

4.C 

4<J.C 


7 « 7 

4.0 

5C.0 


WORLD TOTAL 


85.0 


96. 3 


101.0 


11 5. S 


1 25.5 


125.7 


NOTE: FOOTNOTES 1 


THROUGH 9 APPEAR ON 


LAST PAGE OF 


C IRCULAR. 









SOURCE: PREPARED OR ESTIP^ATED ON THE BASIS OF OFFICIAL STATISTICS OF FOREIGN GOVERNMENTS/ OTHER 
FOREIGN SOURCE MATERIALS^ REPORTS OF U.S. AGRICULTURAL ATTACHES AND FOREIGN SERVICE OFFICERS/ 
RESULTS OF OFFICE RESEARCH/ AND RELATED INFORMATION. 

COMMODITY PROGRAMS/ FAS/ USDA 



10 



WORLD COARSE GRAINS S&D TABLE 
OCTOSER/SEPTEMBER YEARS 1981/82 - 1985/86 
<IN MILLIONS OF METRIC TONS) 



EX PORTS 
CANADA 
AUSTRALIA 
ARGENTINA 
SOUTH AFRICA 
THAILAND 


1 981 / 82 

7.2 
3.1 
10.3 
4.7 
3-5 


1982/83 

7-1 
1-0 
11.6 
2. 3 
2.3 


1 983/84 

5.5 
5-6 
1C.9 
0.1 
3-4 


1 984/85 

3.3 
7.1 

10.6 
0.3 
3.5 


1 985/86 
JAN1 3 

5-8 
5.9 
11-3 
1-0 
4-0 


1 985/86 
FEB11 

5.8 
6.0 
11.3 
1-0 
3.8 


SUBTOTAL 


28.8 


24.3 


25.4 


24.8 


28.0 


27.9 


WEST EUROPE 

CHINA 

OTHERS 


4.7 
0.2 
4.4 


5.2 
0. 1 
6.2 


5-4 
0.5 
5.0 


10.5 
5-6 
4-8 


9-4 
A- 3 
3-6 


9-5 
4-7 
3.6 


TOTAL NON-U. S. 


38.2 


35-9 


36.2 


45-7 


45. i 


45.7 


U.S. 3) 


58.4 


54.0 


55-8 


55-5 


49-1 


49.1 


WORLD TOTAL 


96.6 


89-9 


92.0 


101 .2 


94-4 


94. 8 


IMPORTS 
WEST EUROPE 
USSR 
J APAN 

EAST EUROPE 

CHINA 

OTHERS 


21.0 
20.4 
17.9 
6.1 
1.5 
20.7 


15.6 
11-0 
18-7 
4. 9 
2.5 
37.1 


13.9 
11.9 
20.7 
4.2 
0.2 
41 .1 


10.8 
27.3 
20.7 
3.4 
0.1 
38.8 


8-8 
17-0 
21.5 
5.0 
0.3 
41 .8 


8.3 
17.0 
21.5 
5.8 
C.3 
41-9 


WORLD TOTAL 


96.6 


89.9 


92.0 


101.2 


94.4 


94-8 


PRODUCTION 5) 
C ANADA 
AUSTRALIA 
ARGENTINA 
SOUTH AFRICA 
T HA I L AN 0 
WEST EUROPE 
USSR 6) 
EAST EUROPE 
CHINA 
OTHERS 


26. Q 
6.7 
18.4 
8.8 
4-7 
37.9 
72.0 
64.5 
80.8 
153.6 


26.5 

3- 9 
17-8 

4- 5 

3.7 
93.6 
86.0 
72.0 
82-4 
138.1 


20.9 
9.4 
17.4 
5.1 
4.2 
86.1 
99.0 
67.1 
92-6 
146.4 


22.0 
8.6 
18. e 
8.5 
4.7 
103.7 
86.0 
73. C 
9 5.4 
149. £ 


24.5 
8.4 

18-3 
8.9 

5.5 

J m -mf 

101-3 
94. 0 
67.1 
84. 9 

1 56.4 


24. 5 
8.7 
18-0 
9-9 
5 6 
101-0 
94-0 
67-1 
83-9 
156-8 


TOTAL NON-U. S. 


52 3- 3 


528. 5 


548.2 


570.2 


569.5 


569-5 


U.S. 


246.6 


250.7 


1 37.1 


237.7 


270.9 


274-3 


WORLD TOTAL 


769.9 


779-2 


685-4 


807.9 


840.4 


843-6 


UTILIZATION 7) 
U.S. 
USSR 6) 
CHINA 
OTHERS 


154.8 
98.5 
81 .9 

404.6 


1 67. 9 
98.3 
85.0 

402-4 


147.8 
109.5 
92.4 
407.4 


163.8 
110. <i 
90. C 
41 3.1 


1 70 . 3 
109-0 
80-8 
427.4 


166.6 
109-0 
79-4 
427-2 


TOTAL NON-11 <i 




7 

D O Jm 1 


O U T . J 


O 1 H . u 


A 1 7 ? 
O 1 f . <. 


A1 S 7 


WORLD TOTAL 




753-5 


757.1 


777.8 


787.5 


782.3 


END STOCKS 3) 
TOTAL FOREIGN 9) 
USSR: STK3 CHG 
U.S. 


44.7 
-1.0 
68.2 


41-1 
-1-0 
97.5 


35.0 
1.0 
31 .8 


46.4 
2.0 
50.5 


47.2 
2.0 
102.6 


48.5 
2.0 
109.9 


WORLD TOTAL 


112.9 


138.6 


66.8 


96.9 


149.9 


158.4 


NOTE: FOOTNOTES 1 


THROUGH 9 APPEAR ON 


LAST PAGE 


OF CIPCULAR- 









SOURCE: PREPARED OR ESTIMATED ON THE BASIS OF OFFICIAL STATISTICS OF FOREIGN GOVERNMENTS^ OTHER 
FOREIGN SOURCE MATERIALS^ REPORTS OF U.S. AGRICULTURAL ATTACHES AND FOREIGN SERVICE OFFICERS^ 
RESULTS OF OFFICE RESEARCH/- AND RELATED INFORMATION, 

COMMODITY PROGRAMS, FAS, USDA. 



11 



WORLD RICE S%D TABLE 
TRADEr PROOUCTIONr UTILIZATION AND STOCKS 1) 
(IM "MILLIONS CF METRIC TONS) 





CAL Y R 


L A L T 


rat V D 


r ft 1 V D 
L A L T K 


L A L 1 ^ 3 C 


CAL 1986 




1932 


1983 


1984 


1 985 


J ANI 3 


FEP11 


cX PORTS CI 














aURMA 


J. 7 


G. 8 


0.7 


0.4 


0.5 


C.5 


CHINA 


'J . 3 


\J . 0 


1 mC 


\ .K. 


0.9 


C . 9 


JAPAN 


D. 3 


0. 3 


0.1 


O.G 


O.C 


CO 


O Ah'TCTAkl 
A 1^ 1 i 1 N 


U • 5 


1 X 


1 Pi 


i i*^ 
1 • L 




L . V 


T HAI L AND 


3.6 


3.7 


4.5 


4.0 


4.3 


4.3 


OTHERS 


3.4 


2. 9 


2.9 


3.1 


3.0 


3.1 


TOTAL NON-US 


9.3 


9.6 


10.4 


9.5 


0.6 


9.7 


U.S. 


2.5 


2. 3 


2.1 


1 .£ 


1 . 8 


1.8 


WORLD TOTAL 


11.8 


11.9 


1 2.6 


11 .4 


11.4 


11.5 
















EC-1 D 


1 . 2 


1.0 


1.1 


1.1 


1 .C 


1.0 


i. NuUiicol'^ 




1 • ^ 


n A 


A 

J . \J 




u • J 


IRAN 


0.(3 


0.7 


0.7 


0.7 


0.8 


C.3 


IRAQ 


0.4 


C. 5 


0.5 


0.5 


0.5 


C.5 


KOREA, REP. 


0.2 


C.2 


0.0 


O.C 


O.C 


CO 


NIGERIA 


^.7 


0.7 


0.4 


0.5 


0.5 


C5 


SAUOI ARABIA 


J. 5 


^ ^ C 


0.5 


0.5 


0.5 


C5 


OTHERS 


S . 0 


7. 2 


8.9 


8.1 


3.0 


8.1 


WORLD TOTAL 


11.5 


11.9 


12.6 


1 1 


11.4 


11.5 




1961/82 


1962/83 


1963/84 


1984/85 


1985/36 


1 965/86 


PRODUCTION 3) 














ARGENTINA 




0. 3 


C.5 


C . 4 


0.4 


C4 


AUSTRALIA 




0.5 


0.6 


0.9 


0.7 


C8 


3 ANGL ADESH 


2 C . 5 


21.3 


21 .is 


22. C 


22.5 


22.5 


3RAZIL 


9.2 


7. 3 


<5.G 


9.0 


9.0 


8.3 


URMA 


14.1 


1 4.4 


1 4.<» 


14. S 


14.5 


14.5 


r LI T w ft 




1 O 1 • £1 


loo.*' 


1 7 W 7 
1 f 0 • J 


M 6 f . u 


■1x7 r\ 
1 6 f . J 


EC-10 


1 .1 


1 . 1 


1 .1 


1 .1 


1.2 


1 . 2 


1 HilU 1 A 




_ _ — 
( ^ » f 


on D 


8 8.0 


90. C 


9 C . G 


INDONESIA 


32.3 


33.6 


35.3 


3 8.C 


38.7 


3£.7 


1 ADAM 


1 C • O 


1 £ ■ O 




1 A i. 
1 *♦ • - 


1 / A 
1 H • C 


14.0 


KOPcA, PEP. 


7.1 


7. 3 


7.6 


3.C 


7.<i 


7.9 


" H K X J 1 Ml 




^ . ^ 




S 7 
-> • c 






THAILAND 


17.3 


16. 9 


19.5 


13.7 


19.8 


19.8 


OTHERS 


5 ?. .? 


59.4 


61.3 


62.7 


63.6 


63.9 


TOTAL NON-US 


404.4 


41 2.6 


448.2 


461 . 8 


454.7 


454.8 


U.S. 


8.3 


7. 0 


4.5 


6 . J 


6 . 2 


t. 2 








^ ^ C m 


H C J . I 


/AT C 
H C w • > 


*♦ c 1 • - 
















R ANGLAO£SH 


14.1 


14. G 


14.9 


14.9 


15.4 


15.4 


CHINA 


1 U -1 • 5 


112.4 


117.1 


12 3.9 


116.1 


1 1 1 . 1 


INDIA 


54.1 


4e. 5 


58.2 


57.0 


5". 3 


59.3 




C C ■ J- 


^7 7 
c J . f 








c C • -J 


KOREA/' REP. 


5.4 


5.3 


5.5 


5.5 


5.6 


5. 6 


OTHER^S 


?2. 8 


8 3. 2 


B5.2 


85. c 


87.9 


87.9 


TDTAL NON-US 


? 7 . 2 


237. 6 


306.3 


312.2 


310.3 


31C.4 


U.S. 


2.2 


0 


1 . i 


1 


1 . 9 


1 .9 


WORLD TuiAL 


2 81.5 


289.6 


3C S . 1 


314.1 


312.2 


11"* 7 


END aTOCKS <♦) 














BANGLADESH 


G.3 


C. 3 


0.1 


0.5 


0.3 


C3 


INDIA 


5 . J 


7 C 
i • J 


0 . L 




3 . C 


: • U 


I NDONES I A 


2.3 


1. 3 


1.6 


2. c 


2.7 


2.7 


KOREA, REP. 


1.4 


1.5 


1.3 


1.4 


1.5 


1.5 


T HAILAND 


1 .3 


0. -J 


1.1 


1 . 3 


1 . 5 


1.7 


OTHERS 


i 


7. 2 


5.7 


6.4 


6.4 


6.4 


TOTAL FOREIGN 


19.7 


15.0 


15.3 


1 «.5 


20.3 


2C.6 


U.S. 


1 .6 


2. 3 


1.5 


2.1 


2.8 


2.3 


WORLD TOTAL 


21.3 


1 7. 3 


17.3 


21.9 


23.1 


23.4 



1) PRODUCTION IS ON POUbH -^ASIS; TRADE, UTILIZATION AND STOCKS APE ON r'lLLED BASIS. 

2) TRADE DATA ON CALENDAR YEAd BASIS. 

3) THE wO'LD RICE HARVEST STRETCHES OVER 6-8 MONTHS. THUS, 197d/7<' PRODUCTION REPRESENTS THE CROP 
HARVESTED IN LATE I''?? AND EARLY 1979 IN THE NORTHERN HEMISPHERE AND THE CRO= HARVESTED IN 
EARLY 1979 IN THE SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE. 

4) STOCKS DATA ARE 3ASED ON AN AGGREGATE CF DIFFERENT LOCAL MARKETING YEARS AND SHOULD 

NOT BE CONSTRUED AS REPRESENTING WORLD STOCK LEVELS AT A FIXED OQINT IN TIKE. STOCKS DATA 
ARE NOT AVAILABLE FOR ALL COUNTRIES AND EXCLUDE THOSE SUCH AS NORTH x 0 R £ A AND CHINA. 

SOURCE: Pi'EPAOED OR ESTI-^ATEO ON THE A S I S OF OFFICIAL STATISTICS OF FOREIGN GOVERNMENTS, OTHER 
FOREIGN SOURCE MATERIALS, REPORTS OF U.S. AGRICULTURAL ATTACH'^S AND FOREIGN SEOVICE OFFICERS, 
RESULTS OF OFFICE RESEARCH, AND RELATED INFORMATION. 

COMMODITY PROGRAMS, FAS, U 3 ') a 



12 



WORLD CO«N S&D TABLE 
OCTOBER/SEPTEMBER YEARS 1981/82 - 1985/86 
(IN MILLIONS OF METRIC TONS) 





1981/82 


1982/83 


1 983/84 


1984/85 


1985/86 


1985/86 












JAN1 3 


FE911 


EXPORTS 














ARGENTINA 


4.9 


6.5 


5.9 


7.1 


3.3 


8-9 


SOUTH AFRICA 


4.7 


2-3 


0.1 


0.1 


0.9 


G.9 


THAILAND 


3.3 


2.1 


3.0 


3.2 


3.6 


3-5 


CHINA 


0.1 


0-0 


0.4 


5.2 


4.0 


4.2 


OTHERS 


A. 3 


5.0 


3.7 


A-1 


4.2 


3-7 


TOTAL NON-U. S. 


17.3 


15.9 


13.1 


19.6 


21,0 


21.2 


U.S. 3) 


50.0 


47.5 


47.4 


46.7 


41.3 


41.3 


WORLD TOTAL 


67.3 


63.4 


6C . 5 


66.3 


62.3 


62.4 


T ftj n n n ▼ ^ 

I"1P0RTS 














M tX I CO 


U . o 


/ n 


C.J 


1 - f 


5« 0 


3-0 


E C" 1 U 


r . 6 




4 . i 


T O 

3- V 


3.5 


3-0 


USSR 




O. 3 


o c 
V . 3 


^ n 1 
t J . 3 


1 Z. 1 


1 . 1 


J ARAN 


13.3 


14.5 


14.5 


14. C 


15. C 


15.0 


EAST EUROPE 


4.8 


3.3 


1 .9 


1-5 


2.5 


2-5 


CHINA 


1.2 


2-4 


0.1 


0-1 


0.1 


G-1 


TAIWAN 


2.6 


3-2 


3.0 


3-1 


3.2 


3-2 




<: . o 


t o 

i- y 


5-5 


3.1 


3. 3 








*»- U 


3.5 


3-3 


Z . 5 


2-5 


PORTUGAL 


2.2 


2.2 


2.1 


1.8 


1.2 


1.2 


OTHERS 


13.3 


14.1 


15.9 


13.4 


15.9 


16.3 


WORLD TOTAL 


67.3 


63.4 


6 0.5 


66.3 


62.3 


62.4 


PRODUCTION 5) 














BRAZIL 


22.9 


19.5 


21.0 


21.8 


19.0 


19.0 


1EXIC0 


12.5 


7. 0 


9.3 


9.5 


10.0 


1C.0 


ARGENTINA 


9.6 


9.0 


9.2 


11.5 


11.8 


12.5 


SOUTH AFRICA 


8.4 


4.1 


4.4 


7.5 


3.0 


9-0 


THAILAND 


4.3 


3.4 


3.9 


4.3 


5.1 


5,1 


EC-10 


18.4 


19.8 


19.6 


20.2 


21.5 


21 . 8 


USSR 6) 


e.c 


13.5 


1 2.0 


12.5 


12.5 


12.5 


EAST EUROPE 


32.2 


36.5 


33.4 


35.7 


31 .9 


31.9 


CHINA 


59.2 


60. 3 


68.2 


73.4 


64.0 


64.3 


OTHERS 


57.7 


56.4 


58.0 


65.1 


67.7 


67.8 


TOTAL NON-U. S» 


233.2 


22 9,5 


2 3 9.9 


262.1 


2 51.6 


2 53.7 


U.S. 


206.2 


2ijv. 2 


106.0 


194.9 


2 21-4 


225.2 


WORLD TOTAL 


439.5 


436.7 


346.0 


457. C 


473. C 


478.9 


UTILIZATION 7) 














WEST EUROPE 


39.7 


37. 2 


35.0 


32.3 


34.0 


33. 8 


USSR 6) 


25.3 


1 9. 3 


20.7 


32.8 


24-6 


24.6 


J APAN 


13.6 


14. 2 


14.5 


14.1 


14.3 


14.3 


C HINA 


60.2 


62.3 


67.9 


63. 3 


60.1 


59.9 


OTHERS 


14 6.9 


147. 2 


1 51 .5 


1 57. C 


1 60.0 


161.2 


TOTAL NON-U. S. 


285.6 


231.3 


289.6 


304. 5 


293.1 


293.8 




127.3 


1 37.7 


1 1 9 . -f 


131 .6 


1 37.7 


132.6 


WORLD TOTAL 


41 3.0 


419.0 


409.2 


436.1 


430. 8 


426.4 


END STOCKS 8) 














TOTAL FOREIGN 9) 


21.6 


17.3 


14.8 


1 9.: 


19.1 


2C.2 


U.S. 


55.2 


79. 3 


1 8.4 


35.1 


77. 5 


86.4 



WORLD TOTAL 76.3 96.5 33.2 54.1 96.6 106.6 



NOTE: FOOTNOTES 1 THROUGH 9 APPEAR ON LAST PAGE OF CIRCULAR. 

SOURCE: PREPARED OR ESTIMATED ON THE BASIS OF OFFICIAL STATISTICS OF FOREIGN GOVERNMENTS^ OTHER 
FOREIGN SOURCE MATERIALS/- REPORTS OF U.S. AGRICULTURAL ATTACHES AND FOREIGN SERVICE OFFICERS/- 
RESULTS OF OFFICE RESEARCH/ AND RELATED INFORMATION. 

COMMODITY PROGRAMS/- FAS/ USDA 



13 



WORLD SORGHUM S8D TABLE 
OCTOBER/SEPTEMBER YEARS 1981/82 - 1985/86 
(IN MILLIONS Of METRIC TONS) 



EXPORTS 
AUSTRALIA 
ARGENTINA 
OTHERS 




1981 /82 

1.2 
5-2 
0.9 


1982/83 1983/84 

0.3 1-4 
4.9 4.8 
1.0 0-7 


1984/85 

1.2 
3.4 
1.1 


1985/86 
JAN15 

1.0 
2.8 
1.2 


1985/86 
FE911 

1.1 
2.2 
1.4 


TOTAL NON-U. S. 




7.4 




6-2 


7-0 




5.7 


5.0 


4.7 


U.S. 




6.3 




5-4 


6-2 




7.6 


7.0 


7.0 


WORLD TOTAL 




13.7 


=== = = 




1 7 


==== 




12.0 


11-7 


IMPORTS 
USSR 
J APAN 
MEXICO 
VENEZUELA 
TAIWAN 
KOREA/ REP. 
SPAIN 
PORTUGAL 
SAUDI ARABIA 
I SRAEL 
OTHERS 




2.9 
3.0 
0-9 
0.9 

0- 8 
0.4 
1.5 
0.2 
0.9 
0.4 

1- 8 




2-3 

2- 7 

3- 2 
0-4 
0.6 
0-2 
0.3 
0.2 
0.6 
0.3 
0-7 


1 -9 
4-2 
3-3 
0.2 
0.6 
0.4 
0.8 
0.1 
0-3 
0-6 
0-8 




1.5 
4.6 
2.5 
1.0 
0.5 
0-3 
0-2 
0-0 
0-2 
0.5 
1.9 


1.5 
4.6 
2.0 
1-2 
0.6 
0.3 
0-2 
0-0 
0-3 
0.7 
0.5 


1- 5 
4-6 

2- 0 
1.2 
C.6 
C.3 
C.2 
0.0 
C.3 
C.5 
C.4 


WORLD TOTAL 




1 3.7 




11-6 


13-2 




1 3.3 


12.0 


11.7 


PRODUCTION 5) 
AUSTRALIA 
ARGENTINA 
SOUTH AFRICA 
THAILAND 
MEXICO 
INDIA 
CHINA 
NIGERIA 
SUDAN 
OTHERS 




1.3 
8.0 
0.3 
0.3 
4.0 
12.1 
6.6 
3.7 
3.3 
8.4 




1 n 

1 - u 

7- 6 

n ? 

0.2 
2. 8 
10.8 
7.0 
4-1 
1-9 

8- 3 


1 0 

7.2 

0.3 
4-0 
11-9 
8.4 
2.7 
1.8 
7.9 




i . M 

5.9 

U - u 

0.4 
4-1 
11-3 
7-7 
3-7 
1.2 
7.g 


1 . 5 
5.5 
0.6 
0.4 
4.1 
10.5 
7.C 
4.0 
4.5 
8.6 


1.8 
4.5 

C.6 
C.4 
4.1 
1C.5 
6.5 
4.0 
4.5 
£.8 


TOTAL NON-U. S. 




48.0 




43-9 


46.5 




44.1 


46. <3 


45.7 


U.S. 




22.2 




21-2 


12.4 




22. C 


28.6 


28.3 


WORLD TOTAL 




70.3 




65.1 


58.9 




66.1 


75.5 


74.0 


UTILIZATION 7) 
U.S. 

USSR 
C HINA 
MEXICO 
J APAN 
OTHERS 




11.2 
3.4 
6-6 
6.8 
3.6 

34.5 




13.1 
2.9 
6.9 
6.1 
2. 8 

31.9 


9.9 
2.0 
8.3 
6-3 
3.7 
31 -8 




13.9 
1.5 
7.3 

O m H 

4.7 

32.3 


14.5 
1.5 
6-7 
6.5 
4.6 

34.0 


15.1 
1.5 
6.0 
6.5 
4.6 

33.3 


WORLD TOTAL 




66_ 0 




63- 8 


62.0 




66.1 


67. 8 


67. 1 


END STOCKS 8) 
T-OTAL FOREIGN 
U.S. 




4. a 

7.5 




3; 4 
10.2 


4.1 
6.4 




3.5 
6.9 


4.2 
14.0 


4.3 
13.0 


WORLD TOTAL 




12.3 




13.6 


10.4 




10.4 


18.3 


17.3 


NOTE: FOOTNOTES 1 


THROUGH 


9 APPEAR ON 


LAST 


PAGE OF CIRCULAR. 










SOURCE: PREPARED OR ESTIMATED ON THE BASIS OF OFFICIAL 
FOREIGN SOURCE MATERIALS/ REPORTS OF U.S. AGRICULTURAL 
RESULTS OF OFFICE RESEARCH/ AND RELATED INFORMATION. 


STATISTICS OF 
ATTACHES AND 


FOREIGN 
FOREIGN 


GOVERNMENTS/ OTHER 
SERVICE OFFICERS/ 



COMMODITY PROGRAMS/ FAS/ USDA 



Ik 



WORLD BARLEY 540 TABLE 







OCTOBER/SEPTEMBER 


YEARS 1981/82 - 


1985/86 










f TU MTI 1 TriKlC 


Or METRIC TONSJ 










1 O B'? /ft T 


1 TO J / 0*» 


I y oh/ oD 


1 O O C # Q 


19 85/86 












J AN1 3 


F EB11 


EX PORTS 














C ANADA 


5.5 


6.1 


4.2 


2-5 


4.5 


4-5 


AUSTRALIA 


1.7 


0.6 


3.7 


5.3 


4.5 


4.5 


EC-10 


3.5 


3-9 


3.8 


7-2 


6.5 


6-5 


OTHERS 


1.3 


1.9 


1.5 


2.7 


2.8 


2-8 


TOTAL NON-U. S. 


12.0 


12.5 


1 3.3 


17.7 


18.2 


18-3 


U.S. 


2.0 


i n 


C.I 


1.2 


0.8 


C-8 


WORLD TOTAL 


1 H . 1 


1 J. 


1 ^ L 


1 Q C 
1 tJ - V 


1 Q n 

1 y • 0 


4 C 1 
I V • 1 


T U O O O T C 














E C-1 U 


U . o 


U. ^ 


U . -> 


n 1 
U.I 


0 • T 


P 1 

CI 


USSR 


J . O 


Cm C 


U • 3 


4-7 


3- Q 


3.0 


JAPAN 


1.5 


1.3 


1.6 


1.7 


1-5 


1.5 


EAST EUROPE 


1.2 


1.5 


2.0 


1.7 


2.4 


3-1 


SAUDI ARABIA 


3.4 


2.5 


5.1 


5.4 


5.5 


5.5 


SPAIN 


0.7 


1.6 


0.2 


0.0 


0.0 


CO 


OTHERS 


3.1 


L 1 


^ L 


5.3 


6-4 


5.8 


WU KLD T U 1 AL 


1 H . 1 


1 J. *♦ 


I J ■ *♦ 


1 Q a 


1 Q Ci 

1 y • G 


1 C 1 

1 V . I 


PRODUCTION 5) 














C AN ADA 


1 J • / 


1 *»■ u 




IT T 

10.3 




1 ^ T 

1^.3 


UltCTOAl TA 

AUSTRALIA 


J. *» 


1 o 

1 ■ T 




J a C 


Da t 


!: . U 


E C-1 U 


"I a 1 

J y . J 


41.3 


36.1 


/ / / 


4U a S 


4C 6 


USSR 


37.5 


41.0 


54.0 


42.1 


48a2 


48.2 


CHINA 


7.5 


6.9 


6.9 


5.6 


5a2 


5.2 


EAST EUROPE 


16.0 


17.4 


1 5-4 


17.1 


16.7 


16.7 


OTHERS 


29.2 


30.9 


30.3 


34.4 


36a6 


36.5 


TOTAL NON-U. S. 


146.7 


153.5 


157.8 


159.4 


164-7 


164.5 


U.S. 


10.3 


1 1 • C 


11 1 


13. C 


12.8 


12.8 


WORLD TOTAL 


157.0 


1 04. / 


1 X. a o 


172.5 


177-6 


177.3 


UTILIZATION 7 J 














WEST EUROPE 


43.3 


49-5 


49.1 


50.3 


50-8 


5C-4 


USSR 


42.8 


44,0 


53-8 


44.5 


50-2 


5C2 


EAST EUROPE 


17.0 


17.8 


16.8 


18.1 


18-8 


19.5 


OTHERS 


40.9 


41.7 


44.7 


41.3 


44-6 


44.1 


TOTAL NON-U. S. 


149.1 


153.0 


164.4 


1 54.3 


164-4 


164.2 


U.S. 


8.1 


0. V 




10.3 


10-2 


1C.2 


WORLD TOTAL 


157.2 


162.0 


174-3 


164.6 


1 74. 6 


174-4 


END STOCKS 8) 














TOTAL FOREIGN 


13.7 


15. 3 


10-2 


16.8 


17.5 


17.5 


U.S. 


3.2 


4.7 


4-1 


5.4 


7.5 


7.6 


WORLD TOTAL 


17.0 


19.7 


14.3 


22.2 


25. C 


25-1 



NOTE: FOOTNOTES 1 THROUGH 9 APPEAR ON LAST PA5E OF CIRCULAR. 

SOURCE: PREPARED OR ESTIMATED ON THE BASIS OF OFFICIAL STATISTICS OF FOREIGN GOVERNMENTS^ OTHER 
FOREIGN SOURCE MATERIALS/- REPORTS OF U.S. AGRICULTURAL ATTACHES AND FOREIGN SERVICE OFFICERS/' 
RESULTS OF OFFICE RESEARCH/- AND RELATED INFORMATION. 

COMMODITY PROGRAMS, FAS/- USDA. 



15 



WORLD WHEAT AND FLOUR TRADE 







J ULY/JUNE 


YEARS 1981/82 


- 1985/86 










(IN THOUSANDS OF METRIC 


TONS) 








1981/82 


1982/83 


1 983/84 


1984/85 


1985/86 


1985/86 












JAN13 


FEB11 


EXPORTS 














UNITED STATES 


48776 


39939 


38860 


38092 


26700 


26700 


C ANADA 


17618 


21368 


21765 


1940C 


17500 


17500 


ARGENTINA 


43C5 


7501 


9661 


8034 


6600 


61C0 


AUSTRALIA 


10983 


P 1 T 1 


1 U J oO 


15265 


1 5700 


15700 


EC-10 


15500 


1 5600 


15400 


1750C 


17500 


17500 


0. W. EUi^OPE 


971 


1 sn ^ 




185C 


1185 


1185 


CHol CUKUrt 


1 0 n 


2370 


2255 


1 u - 






USSR 


500 


500 


500 


1000 


1000 


1C0O 


T 1 1 Dl^ C V 
1 U K N C 1 


T 7 7 


573 


600 


^ i 7 


Ann 
4 UU 


mL'U 


OTHER COUNTRIES 


364 


856 


818 


801 


12 90 


1290 


WORLD TOTAL 


101 304 

============ 


98644 
============ 


101970 

============s= 


106559 


90450 


90C00 


[MPORTS 








=========== 


============== 


=========== 


EC-1C 


4675 


3950 


3600 


220C 


2700 


2200 


0. W. EUROPE 


2316 


1301 


1764 


1361 


1590 


1620 


EAST EUROPE 


6205 


4523 


3757 


2602 


400C 


4C00 


J ARAN 


5577 


5795 


5857 


5603 


5400 


5400 


CHINA 


15200 


13000 


9600 


7400 


6500 


6500 


USSR 


1 9500 


20200 


20500 


28100 


1 7000 


17C00 


EGYPT 


5800 


5350 


6712 


6600 


670C 


6700 


ALGERIA 


2294 


2548 


2840 


280C 


250C 


2500 


MOROCCO 


2228 


1331 


2128 


2454 


2300 


2300 


NIGERIA 


1550 


1500 


1600 


1750 


1700 


1700 


TUNI SI A 


626 


695 


1035 


830 


450 


450 


LIBYA 


529 


449 


380 


400 


400 


400 


SUDAN 


363 


44 8 


450 


60C 


665 


665 


»«EXICO 


900 


50 


566 


486 


300 


300 


BRAZIL 


4470 


3600 


3948 


5400 


3100 


3100 


CHILE 


950 


1080 


1001 


750 


600 


600 


PERU 


961 


1006 


970 


863 


1000 


950 


V ENEZUELA 


330 


82 6 


925 


1028 


100C 


1C00 


ECUADOR 


31 2 


325 


358 


360 


380 


380 


90LIVIA 


151 


202 


250 


260 


270 


270 


CUBA 


1500 


1100 


1300 


1300 


1300 


1300 


COLOMBIA 


555 


574 


650 


600 


600 


600 


I SRAEL 


450 


625 


500 


70G 


650 


600 


J ORD AN 


310 


335 


335 


384 


390 


390 


L E9AN0N 


345 


373 


375 


375 


375 


375 


SAUDI ARA8IA 


682 


700 


336 


300 


100 


100 


SYRIA 


294 


430 


935 


1400 


900 


900 


YEMEN, A9 


450 


450 


600 


575 


600 


600 


IRAN 


1377 


1405 


3700 


320C 


3300 


2800 


I RAQ 


1600 


1800 


3000 


3000 


3000 


2700 


MALAYSIA 


544 


541 


602 


635 


650 


650 


VIETNAM 


566 


600 


600 


600 


600 


600 


BANGLADESH 


1111 


1500 


1 876 


1 898 


1 60C 


1600 


I NDONESI A 


1 5?9 


1485 


1 587 


11 50 


1500 


1500 


PAKISTAN 


400 


58 0 


366 


1036 


1700 


1700 


TURKEY 


748 


50 


350 


1048 


1000 


1C00 


INDIA 


2265 


7 7n n 


c 3 UU 


150 


100 


100 


SRI LANKA 


529 


474 


648 


650 


580 


580 


KOREA/. REP. 


1 368 


1 o o U 


C J J 1 


31 35 


2700 


2700 


DUTI TDDTMCTC 

rrllLlrf'lNto 


Q A 
O C J 


92 5 


693 


7 Q C 


a n n 

out' 


7 n n 
f u u 


TAIWAN 


673 


737 


6 55 


79C 


75 C 


750 


KUftCH^ \J " n 


X O fl 

J T O 






^ ^ r 




J u u 


SINGAPORE 


1 80 


200 


200 


200 


200 


200 


c 1 la T n T A 1 


^ c 0 f 1 


88843 


92900 


0 A T 1 P 


ft 7i 5 n 


fine RO 


OTHER COUNTRIES 


5233 


5102 


6064 


6991 


6568 


6568 


UNACCOUNT ED 1 ) 


3400 


4699 


3006 


3258 


1432 


2452 


WORLD TOTAL 


101 304 


98644 


101970 


106559 


90450 


90C00 



1) THIS REPRESENTS EXPORTS NOT ACCOUNTED FOR IN REPORTS FROM IMPORTING COUNTRIES. SINCE THIS 
IS RECURRING/- IT IS TAKEN INTO ACCOUNT IN THE ASSESSMENT OF THE YEAR AHEAD. 

SOURCE: PREPARED OR ESTIMATED ON THE 9ASIS OF OFFICIAL STATISTICS OF FOREIGN GOVERNMENTS/- OTHER 
FOREIGN SOURCE MATERIALS/- PEPORTS OF U.S. AGRICULTURAL ATTACHES AND FOREIGN SERVICE OFFICERS^ 
RESULTS OF OFFICE RESEARCH/- AND RELATED INFORMATION. 



COMMODITY PROGRAMS/- FAS, USDA 



16 



WORLD COARSE GRAIN TRADE 
OCTOeER/SEPTEMBER YEARS 1981/82 - 1985/86 
(IN THOUSANDS OF I»IETRIC TONS) 





1 981 /82 


1 982/83 


1 983/ 84 


1984/85 


1 985/86 


1 985/ 86 












JANI 3 


FE311 


EXPORTS 














UNITED STATES 


584A1 


53990 


55798 


55495 


49060 


49C60 


CANADA 


7222 


7074 


5482 


3307 


5830 


5833 


ARGENTINA 


10328 


11624 


1 0854 


1062C 


11265 


11265 


AUSTRALIA 


3075 


979 


5555 


7085 


5900 


6C00 


E C-1 0 


4000 


4290 


4250 


8000 


700C 


7C00 


0. W. EUROPE 


720 


945 


1159 


2544 


240C 


251 0 


EAST EUROPE 


2148 


3266 


3032 


3004 


2100 


2100 


THAILAND 


351 2 


2326 


3 3 86 


3523 


4000 


3850 


SOUTH AFRICA 


4701 


2300 


75 


25C 


1000 


1C00 


CHINA 


200 


100 


475 


5600 


4300 


4700 


SUBTOTAL 


94347 


86894 


90066 


99428 


92855 


9331 5 


OTHER COUNTRIES 


2 2 70 


2959 


1 937 


1795 


1 50C 


1470 


WORLD TOTAL 


96617 


8985 3 


92003 


101223 


94355 


94785 


IMPORTS 














EC-1 0 


3300 


5650 


5750 


400G 


370C 


3200 


0. W. EUROPE 


1 2696 


9962 


81 20 


6837 


51 00 


51 00 


EAST EUROPE 


6148 


485 2 


4218 


3442 


5050 


5800 


J AP AN 


17866 


1 8693 


20721 


2C727 


21500 


21 500 


CHINA 


1 468 


2548 


231 


1 50 


250 


250 


USSR 


29400 


1 1 000 


1 1 900 


2730G 


17000 


17CC0 


E GYPT 


13 50 


1516 


1 500 


1 700 


1 900 


1900 


ALGERIA 


5 59 


750 


1 143 


1168 


59C 


590 


MOROCCO 


427 


140 


235 


257 


1 90 


190 


TUNISIA 


377 


169 


296 


1 7C 


1 80 


1 80 


SOUTH AFRICA 


1 30 


767 


2922 


865 


0 


0 


C ANADA 


904 


750 


313 


425 


300 


300 


MEXICO 


1633 


7232 


5856 


421 5 


5050 


5C50 


BRAZIL 


118 


11 5 


560 


472 


1750 


3CQ0 


CHILE 


345 


340 


66 


20 


25 


25 


PERU 


555 


446 


467 


302 


305 


240 


VENEZUELA 


1653 


1 31 8 


1 6 20 


1785 


1700 


1700 


JAMAICA 


1 59 


166 


1 90 


145 


140 


149 


CUBA 


475 


465 


429 


566 


500 


500 


COLOMBIA 


302 


304 


1 81 


305 


340 


340 


I SRAEL 


1 1 66 


1 229 


1 085 


1 043 


1 300 


1110 


L E8AN0N 


216 


225 


1 22 


85 


125 


125 


SAUDI ARABIA 


4630 


3450 


5932 


61 80 


6500 


6500 


SYRIA 


275 


225 


425 


215 


300 


300 


I RAN 


1 030 


1 649 


1 275 


1 28C 


150G 


1500 


I RAQ 


425 


489 


605 


825 


1000 


550 


MALAYSIA 


794 


945 


1139 


1 080 


1 250 


1250 


INDONESIA 


2 


198 


66 


75 


70 


70 


KOREA^ REP. 


31 49 


4146 


4049 


361 3 


3865 


4C6 5 


PHILIPPINES 


301 


556 


217 


363 


250 


0 


TAIWAN 


3871 


4150 


3989 


4164 


424G 


4240 


SINGAPORE 


460 


490 


474 


650 


450 


450 


SUBTOTAL 


92184 


84035 


86101 


94424 


86420 


87165 


OTHER COUNTRIES 


3 73 8 


4413 


5550 


6343 


4757 


4782 


UNACCOUNTED 1) 


695 


505 


352 


456 


3178 


2838 


WORLD TOTAL 


96617 


89853 


92003 


1 01 223 


94355 


94785 


1) THIS REPRESENTS EXPORTS 


NOT ACCOUNTED FOR IN 


REPORTS FROM 


IMPORTING COUNTRIES. SINCE 


THIS IS 


RECURRING^ IT IS TAKEN INTO 


ACCOUNT IN 


THE ASSESSMENT OF THE 


YEAR AHEAD. 







SOURCE: PREPARED OR ESTIMATED ON THE BASIS OF OFFICIAL STATISTICS OF FOREIGN GOVERNMENTS/ OTHER 
FOREIGN SOURCE MATERIALS^ REPORTS OF U.S. AGRICULTURAL ATTACHES AND FOREIGN SERVICE OFFICERS 
RESULTS OF OFFICE RSSEARCHr AND RELATED INFORMATION. 



COMMODITY PROGRAMS^ FAS^ USDA 



1? 



WORLD RICE TRADE 
CAL YEAR 1982 TO 1986 
(IN THOUSANDS OF METRIC TONS) 







CAL YR 




CAL YR 




CAL YR 


CAL YR 


CAL 1986 


CAL 1986 






1982 




1983 




1984 


1985 


J AN13 


FEB11 


EXPORTS 




















UNITED STATES 




2A87 




2330 




2129 


185C 


1800 


leoo 


ARGENTINA 




92 




63 




115 


165 


145 


145 


AUSTRALIA 




530 




281 




370 


400 


500 


500 


BURMA 




701 




750 




727 


450 


500 


500 


CHINA 




470 




580 




1168 


1000 


900 


900 


TAIWAN 




307 




533 




210 


70 


100 


100 


EC-1C 




826 




807 




742 


745 


745 


745 


EGYPT 




22 




21 




50 


2G 


50 


50 


GUYANA 




35 




45 




47 


35 


35 


35 


INDIA 




633 




200 




2 00 


220 


200 


200 


INDONESIA 




0 




0 




U 


41 5 


200 


300 


J APAN 




318 




321 




102 


c 


0 


0 


KORcAa DPR 




■5 c n 




d5\J 




2 50 


ICO 

250 


OCA 

250 


2 50 


NEPAL 




50 




0 




20 


50 


25 


25 


P AK I S T AN 








1 cyy 




1 050 


961 


900 


O 

9 00 


THAILAND 




3620 




3700 




4528 


3993 


4300 


4300 


U RUGUAY 








189 




1 55 


240 


260 


260 


VIETNAM 




15 




140 




150 


5C 


50 


50 


SUBTOTAL 




11377 




11514 




1 2013 


10914 


10960 


11C60 


OTHER COUNTRIES 




A46 




410 




554 


44C 


425 


425 


WORLD TOTAL 




11 823 




11924 




1 2567 


11354 


11385 


11485 


IMPORTS 




















BANGLADESH 




296 




82 




588 


300 


200 


200 


BRAZIL 




1 24 




326 




0 


40G 


400 


600 


CANADA 




108 




115 




115 


115 


115 


115 


CHINA 




250 




75 




100 


100 


IOC 


100 


CUBA 




201 




207 




2 00 


20C 


200 


200 


EAST EUROPE 




303 




291 




344 


325 


335 


235 


EC-10 




1169 




979 




1105 


1055 


1040 


1040 


INDIA 




10 




315 




560 


10 


10 


10 


I RAQ 




369 




474 




490 


47C 


550 


550 


I RAN 




537 




680 




730 


70C 


750 


750 


IVORY COAST 




357 




434 




368 


250 


250 


250 


KOREA/- REP. 




228 




216 




7 


0 


0 


0 


KUWAIT 




64 




55 




80 


90 


90 


90 


MALAGASY 




357 




185 




99 


120 


150 


150 


MALAYSIA 




403 




357 




437 


45C 


50C 


500 


MEXICO 




16 




0 




166 


1 50 


50 


50 


NIGERIA 




666 




711 




450 


500 


500 


500 


PHILIPPINES 




0 




0 




213 


500 


300 


300 


PERU 




58 




101 




48 


5 


G 


1 50 


PORTUGAL 




110 




30 




105 


85 


80 


80 


SAUDI ARABIA 




471 




491 




530 


50C 




c r\ 

500 


S ENE6AL 




370 




362 




375 


35C 


350 


350 


SOUTH AFRICA 




1 46 




15 8 




1 86 


1 70 


1 90 


190 


SRI LANKA 




21 7 




157 




20 


205 


1 50 


150 


SYRIA 




102 




120 




130 


1 3G 


130 


130 


U.A. EMIRATES 




102 




100 




1 20 


1 30 


1 40 


1 4Q 


U SSR 




859 




323 




150 


150 


150 


150 


VIETNAM 




150 




30 




300 


40C 


400 


400 


SUBTOTAL 




8093 




7374 




8018 


786C 


7680 


7980 


OTHER COUNTRIES 




3211 




3998 




3880 


3062 






UNACCOUNTED 1) 




519 




552 




669 


432 


i1 7 


295 


WORLD TOTAL 




11823 




11924 




1 2567 


11354 


11385 


11485 


1) THIS REPRESENTS 


EXPORTS 


NOT ACCOUNTED 


FOR IN 


REPORTS FROM IMPORTING COUNTRIES. SINCE 


THIS 


IS RECURRING IT 


IS TAKE 


N INTO ACCOUNT 


IN THE 


ASSESSMENT OF THE 


YEAR AHEAD 


• 




SOURCE: PREPARED OR ESTIMATED ON THE 


BASIS OF OFFICIAL 


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GOVERNMENTS 


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FOREIGN SOURCE MATERIALS/- 


REPORTS OF 


U. S 


. AGRICULTURAL 


ATTACHES AND FOREIGN 


SERVICE OFFICERS/ 


RESULTS OF OFFICE 


RESEARCH 


, AND RELATED 


INFORMATION. 











COMMODITY PROGRAMS/ FAS/ USDA 



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20 



USSR AND CHINA: SRAIN S t D 
WHEAT AND COARSE GRAINS 
JULY/JUNE YEARS 1978/79 - 1985/86 
MILLION METRIC TONS/HECTARES 





AREA 


YIELD 


PRODUCTION 


JUL/JUN 


JUL/JUN 


NET 


UTILIZATION 


STOCKS 




HARVESTED 






IMPORTS 


EXPORTS 


IMPORTS 


TOTAL 1/ 


CHANGE 


USSR 


















WHEAT AND COARSE 


SRAINS 
















1978/79 


120.9 


1.87 


226.2 


15.1 


2.5 


12.5 


219.7 


19.0 


1 979/80 


118.9 


1 .44 


171.3 


30.5 


0.5 


30.0 


214.4 


-13.0 


1 930/81 


119.3 


1 .50 


178.7 


34.0 


0.5 


33.5 


214.2 


-2.0 


1931/82 


117.3 


1 .30 


152.0 


45.0 


0.5 


44.5 


200.5 


-4.0 


1982/33 


115.3 


1 .49 


172.0 


31.5 


0.5 


31.0 


204.0 


-1.0 


1983/34 


112.0 


1.59 


178.0 


32.0 


0.5 


31.5 


206.5 


3.0 


1934/85 3/ 


110.3 


1 .44 


159.0 


55.0 


1.0 


54.0 


207,0 


6.0 


1935/86 4/ 


105.0 


1 .64 


177.0 


34.0 


1.0 


33.0 


204.0 


6.0 


(rfHEAT 


















1978/79 


62.9 


1 .92 


120.8 


5.1 


1.5 


3.6 


106.5 


18.0 


1 979/80 


57.7 


1 .56 


90.2 


12.1 


0.5 


11.6 


114.8 


-13.0 


1930/81 


61.5 


1 .60 


98.2 


16.0 


0.5 


15.5 


114.7 


-1.0 


1931/82 


59.2 


1.35 


80.0 


19.5 


0.5 


1 9.0 


102.0 


-3.0 


1932/83 


57.3 


1.50 


86.0 


20.2 


0.5 


19.7 


105.7 


0.0 


1983/34 


50.8 


1.56 


79.0 


20.5 


0.5 


20.0 


97.0 


2.0 


1934/85 3/ 


51.1 


1 .43 


73.0 


28.1 


1.0 


27.1 


96.1 


4.0 


1935/36 4/ 


50.2 


1.65 


63.0 


17.0 


1.0 


16.0 


95.0 


4.0 


COARSE 3RAINS 5/ 


















1 973/79 


53.0 


1 .82 


105.3 


9.9 


1.0 


3.9 


113.2 


1.0 


1 979/30 


61 .2 


1.33 


81.1 


18.4 


0.0 


18.4 


99. 5 


0.0 


1 930/31 


57.9 


1 .39 


80.5 


18.0 


0.0 


18.0 


99.5 


-1.0 


1 931/32 


58.0 


1.24 


72.0 


25.5 


0.0 


25.5 


98.5 


-1.0 


1932/83 


58.0 


1.48 


86.0 


11.3 


0.0 


11.3 


98.3 


-1.0 


1933/34 


61.2 


1 .62 


99.0 


11.5 


0.0 


11.5 


109.5 


1 .0 


1934/85 3/ 


59.2 


1 .45 


86.0 


26.9 


CO 


26.9 


110.9 


2.0 


1935/86 4/ 


57.8 


1.63 


94.0 


17.0 


0.0 


17.0 


109.0 


2.0 



CHINA 



WHEAT AND COARSE 


GRAINS 
















1973/79 


62.7 


2.12 


132.9 


11.1 


0.1 


11.0 


143.9 


CO 


1979/30 


63.1 


2.31 


145.8 


1 0.9 


0.1 


10.8 


156.5 


0.0 


1933/31 


61 .7 


2.26 


139.4 


14.6 


0.2 


14.4 


154.0 


0.0 


1 931/32 


59.4 


2.36 


140.4 


14.5 


0.2 


14.3 


1 54.8 


0.0 


1932/33 


57.2 


2.64 


150.8 


15.7 


0.1 


15.6 


166.4 


0.0 


1953/34 


58.6 


2.97 


174.0 


9.8 


0.5 


9.4 


183.4 


0.0 


1934/35 3/ 


53.3 


3.14 


183.3 


7.5 


5.6 


1.9 


l!J5.2 


0.0 


1935/36 4/ 


56.7 


3.00 


169.9 


6.8 


4.7 


2.1 


171 .9 


0.0 


WHEAT 


















1 978/79 


29.2 


1 .84 


53.8 


B.O 


0.0 


S.O 


61 .9 


0.0 


1979/30 


29.4 


2.14 


62.7 


8.9 


0.0 


8.9 


71 .6 


0.0 


1930/31 


29.2 


1.89 


55.2 


13.8 


0.0 


13.8 


69.0 


3.0 


1 931 /32 


28.3 


2.11 


59.6 


13.2 


0.0 


13.2 


72.5 


0.0 


1 932/33 


27.9 


2.45 


68.4 


13.0 


0.0 


13.0 


81 .4 


0.0 


1933/34 


29.0 


2. SO 


81.4 


9.6 


0.0 


9.6 


91 .0 


0.0 


1934/85 3/ 


29.6 


2.97 


87.8 


7.4 


0.0 


7.4 


95.2 


0.0 


1935/86 4/ 


29.3 


2.93 


86.0 


6.5 


0.0 


6. 5 


92.5 


0.0 


COARSE GRAINS 5/ 


















1 978/79 


33.5 


2.36 


79.0 


3.1 


0.1 


3.0 


82.0 


0.0 


1 979/80 


33.7 


2.46 


83.1 


2.0 


0.1 


1.9 


85 .0 


cc 


1930/81 


32.5 


2.59 


84.2 


0.9 


0.2 


0.7 


85.0 


0.0 


1931/82 


31 .1 


2.60 


80.8 


1.3 


0.2 


1.1 


81 .9 


0.0 


1932/33 


29.3 


2.81 


82.4 


2.7 


0.1 


2.6 


85.0 


0.0 


1933/34 


29.6 


3.13 


92.6 


0.2 


0.5 


-0.2 


92.4 


0.0 


1934/85 3/ 


28.7 


3.32 


95.4 


0.1 


5.6 


-5.4 


90.0 


0.0 


1935/86 4/ 


27.3 


3.07 


83.9 


0.3 


4.7 


-4.4 


79.4 


0.0 



1/ FEED USE DATA ARE UNAVAILABLE FOR CHINA. 

2/ FOR CHINA, UTILIZATION ESTIMATES REPRESENT "APPARENT" UTILIZATION, I.E. THEY INCLUDE ANNUAL ST0C< LEVEL 

ADJUSTMENTS THOUGH NO STOCKS DATA ARE AVAILA3LE. 
3/ PRELIMINARY. 
4/ PROJECTION. 

5/ COARSE GRAINS INCLUDE 3ARLEY, RYE, OATS, CORN, SORGHUM, AND MILLET. EXCLUDED ARE MISCELLANEOUS GRAINS, 
PULSES AND RICE. 

COMMODITY PROSRAMS, FAS, USDA GRAIN AND FEED DIVISION 



21 



WHc*T: SUPPLY *N9 DISAPPEARANCE 
U.S. AND KAJOR CD"»ETITORS 
1973/74 - 1985/56 
MILLION METRIC TOSS/HECTARES 

AREA YIELD PRODUCTION D01ESTIC - - EXPORTS 1/ - - HKT YEAR 2/ 

HARVESTED USE JUL/JUN MKT YEAR ESD STOCKS 



CANADA (■A9<ETISS YEAR AJS/JdL) 



1973/74 




9.6 


1.69 


16.2 


4.6 


11.7 


11.4 


10.1 


1974/75 




3.9 


1.49 


13.3 


4.6 


11.2 


10.7 


8.0 


1975/76 




9.5 


1 .30 


17.1 


4.6 


12.1 


12.3 


8.2 


1976/77 




11.3 


2.10 


23.6 


5.0 


12.9 


13.4 


13.3 


1977/73 




10.1 


1.96 


19.9 


5.1 


15.9 


16.3 


12.1 


1973/79 




10.6 


2.00 


21.1 


5.3 


13.5 


13.1 


14.9 


1 979/33 




10.5 


1.64 


17.2 


5.5 


15.0 


15.9 


10.7 


1 930/81 




11.1 


1.73 


19.2 


5.0 


17. C 


16.3 


8.6 


1931/32 




12.4 


2.00 


24.3 


5.2 


17.6 


13.4 


9.8 


1932/33 




12.6 


2.13 


26.7 


5.1 


21.4 


21 .4 


10.0 


1933/34 




13.7 


1.94 


26.5 


5.6 


21. S 


21 .8 


9.2 


1934/35 


3/ 


13.2 


1 .61 


21.2 


5.4 


19.4 


17.5 


7.5 


1935/36 


4/ 


13.7 


1.75 


23.9 


5.9 


17.5 


18.0 


7.5 







AUSTRALIA 


(lARKETINS 


YEAR 


OCT/SE=) 








1 973/74 




8.9 


1 .34 


12.3 


3.5 


5.4 


7.3 


2.0 


1974/75 




5.3 


1.37 


11.4 


3.1 


8.3 


8.6 


1.7 


1975/76 




3.6 


1 .43 


12.0 


2.3 


7.9 


8.7 


2.7 


1976/77 




9.0 


1.32 


11 .8 


2.8 


8.5 


9.5 


2.1 


1977/73 




10.0 


0.94 


9.4 


2.6 


11.1 


3.1 


0.8 


1978/79 




10.2 


1.77 


18.1 


2.5 


6.7 


11.7 


4.6 


1979/80 




11.2 


1.45 


16.2 


3.4 


15.0 


13.2 


4.3 


1 933/81 




11.3 


0.96 


10.9 


3.5 


10.6 


9.6 


2.0 


1 931/32 




11.9 


1.38 


16.4 


2.6 


11.0 


11.3 


4.8 


1 932/83 




11.5 


0.'7 


».? 


4.1 


3.1 


7.3 


2.3 


1933/34 




12.9 


1 .7C 


22.3 


3.4 


10.6 


13.3 


7.6 


1934/35 


3/ 


12.0 


1.52 


13.3 


3.3 


15.3 


14.3 


S.6 


1935/36 


4/ 


12.3 


1 .36 


16.5 


3.C 


15.7 


15.5 


6.6 



ARSENTISA (>*APICET:n3 YEAR 5EC/N0V) 



1 973/74 




4.0 


1 .66 


6.6 


4.2 


1.1 


1.6 


1.0 


1 974/75 




4.2 


1 .41 


6.0 


4.5 


2.2 


1.3 


0.7 


1975/76 




5.3 


1.63 


8.6 


5.4 


3.2 


3.2 


0.7 


1 974/77 




6.4 


1 .71 


11.0 


4.2 


5.6 


5.9 


1.6 


1 977/73 




3.9 


1 .46 


5.7 


4.3 


2.6 


1 . 3 


1.2 


1 973/79 




4.7 


1 .73 


3.1 


4.1 


3.3 


4.1 


1.1 


1 979/30 




4.8 


1.69 


8.1 


4.0 


4.8 


4.3 


0.4 


1 933/81 




5.0 


1 .55 


7.S 


3.9 


3.9 


3.3 


0.4 


1 931 /32 




5.9 


1 .43 


3.3 


4.3 


4.3 


3.6 


0.? 


1 932/33 




7.3 


2.05 


15.3 


4.3 


7.5 


9.9 


1.1 


1933/84 




6.9 


1 .35 


12.3 


4.7 


9.7 


7.8 


1.3 


1 934/35 


3/ 


5.9 


2.22 


13.2 


4.5 


S.O 


9.4 


0.5 


1935/36 


4/ 


5.3 


1 .61 


8.5 


4.4 


6.1 


4.2 


0.4 



TOTAL COMPETITOSS 



1973/74 
1974/75 
1 975/76 
1976/77 
1 977/73 
1 973/79 
1 979/33 
1 930/31 
1931/32 
1 932/33 
1933/34 
1984/35 3/ 
1985/36 4/ 



22.5 
21.5 
23.3 
26.6 
24.0 
25.5 
26.4 
27.4 
30.2 
31 .4 
33.5 
31 .1 
31 .3 



1.54 
1 .43 
1.41 
1 .74 
1.46 
1.35 
1.57 
1 .3£ 
1 .64 
1 .51 
1 .33 
1.59 
1.53 



34.7 

30.4 
37.6 
46.4 
34.9 
47.3 
41 .5 
37. 3 
49. 5 
50.4 
61 .3 
52.7 
43.9 



12.4 
12.2 
12.3 
12.1 
12.0 
11.9 
12.9 
12.5 
12.1 
1 4.C 
13.7 
13.2 
13.3 



18.3 
21.6 
23.2 
27.: 
29.5 
23.5 
34.7 
31.5 
32.9 
37. C 
42.3 
42.7 
39.3 



20.3 
21 .1 
24.1 
28.3 
25.9 
23.3 
33.8 
29.7 
33.1 
38.5 
43.0 
40. 9 
37.7 



13.1 
13.4 
11.6 
17.1 
14.1 
20.7 
15.4 
11.0 
15.3 
13.4 
13.0 
16.4 
14.5 



U.S. (!1ARKETIN3 YEAR JUN/*>AY) 



1973/74 
1974/75 
1 975/74 
1 976/77 
1 977/78 
1 973/79 
1 979/30 
1 930/81 
1931/32 
1982/33 
1933/34 
1934/35 3/ 
1935/36 4/ 



21 .9 
26.5 
25.1 
28.7 
27.0 
22.9 
25.3 
28.8 
32.6 
31 .5 
24.3 
27.1 
24.2 



2.12 
1 .33 
2.06 
2.04 
2.06 
2.11 
2.33 
2.25 
2.32 
2.39 
2.45 
2.41 
2.52 



46.6 
43.5 
57.9 
53.5 
55.7 
43.3 
53.1 
64.3 



75. 
75. 
45. 
70. 



64.3 



23.5 
13.3 
19.7 
23.5 
23.4 
22.3 
21 .3 
21.3 
23.1 
24.7 
33.2 
31 .4 
29.3 



31.3 
25.3 
31 .7 
26.1 
31 .5 
32.3 
37.2 
41 .9 
43.3 
39.9 
33.9 
33.1 
26.7 



33.1 
27.7 
31 .9 
25.9 
30.6 
32.5 
37.4 



41 . 
48. 
41 . 
38. 
38. 
25. 



9.3 
11.5 
18.1 
30.3 
32.1 
25.1 
24.5 
26.9 
31.5 
41 .2 
33.1 
33.9 
50.0 







TOTAL 


U.S. AND 


COP-PETITCRS 










1973/74 




44.4 


1.33 


31 .3 


32.9 


49.6 


53.1 


22.3 


1974/75 




47.9 


1 . 65 


79.1 


33.5 


49.9 


48.8 


22.2 


1 975/76 




51.4 


1 . 36 


95.5 


32.1 


54.9 


56.3 


29.8 


1 976/77 




55.3 


1 .90 


104.9 


32.7 


53.1 


54.7 


47.3 


1 977/73 




51.0 


1 .76 


90.6 


35.4 


61 .1 


56.5 


46.1 


1 973/79 




48.4 


1.93 


95.7 


34.7 


55.5 


61.3 


45.8 


1 979/80 




51.7 


1 .93 


99.6 


34.2 


71 .9 


71 .3 


40.0 


1930/81 




56.2 


1.83 


132.6 


33.8 


73.5 


70.9 


37.9 


1931/82 




62.9 


1 .99 


125.3 


35.1 


81.7 


81.3 


46.9 


1932/83 




62.9 


2.00 


125.9 


33.7 


76.9 


79.6 


54.6 


1933/34 




58.4 


2.1s 


127.1 


43.9 


80.9 


81.8 


56.1 


1934/85 


3/ 


58.2 


2.12 


123.3 


44.6 


30.8 


79.7 


55.4 


1935/86 


4/ 


57.2 


2.01 


114.9 


42.6 


66.0 


63.6 


64.5 



22 



SELECTED COARSE GRAINS 
MAJOR FOREIGN EXPORTERS 
PRODUCTION YEARS 1978 - 1985 
THOUSANDS OF METRIC TONS/HECTARES 

AREA YIELD PRODUCTION DOMESTIC EXPORTS ENDING 

HARVESTED UTILIZATION OCT/SEP MKT YR STOCKS 



ARGENTINA 


GRAIN SORGHUM 


(MAR/FE3) 












(78) 1979/30 


2117 


3.07 


6500 


2856 


1611 


3755 


141 


(79) 1930/31 


1279 


2.31 


2960 


1585 


4860 


1494 


22 


(80) 1981/82 


2100 


3.38 


7100 


2050 


5216 


4940 


132 


(81) 1982/33 


2510 


3.19 


8000 


2090 


4931 


5544 


498 


(82) 1983/34 


2520 


3.02 


7600 


2700 


4788 


5197 


201 


V } 1 y OH/ oD 






7200 


3050 


3365 


41 34 


217 


(84) 1985/86 1/ 


1987 


2.97 


5900 


2700 


2200 


3300 


117 


(85) 1986/87 2/ 


1350 


3.33 


4500 


2500 




2000 


117 


AUSTRALIA 


GRAIN SORGHUM 


(MAR/FEB) 












(7S) 1979/80 


469 


2.40 


1125 


502 
^ w c 


ojw 


Alio 




(79) 1930/31 


519 


1.78 


T C £ 


J □ r 


^1 n 

y 1 u 


PUO 


1 ftT 


(80) 1981/82 


65 8 


1.9^ 


1204 

1 fa u *t 




1 9^11 
1 £ JO 




A C 
0 9 


(81) 1932/33 


649 


2,03 


1317 


JO V 


9ft1 


0A1 




(82) 1983/34 


707 


1 .36 


958 


701 


1427 


282 


30 


(83) 1984/85 


730 


2.58 


1885 


390 


1240 


1425 


100 


(84) 1985/36 1/ 


708 


1.94 


1370 


350 


1100 


1100 


20 


(85) 1936/87 2/ 


875 


2.06 


1500 


450 




1200 


170 


ARGENTINA 


CORN CIAR/FEB) 














(78) 1979/80 


2399 


3.10 


9000 


3296 


3460 


5965 


173 


(79) 1980/31 


2490 


2.57 


6400 


3048 


9016 


3417 


108 


(80) 1981/82 


3394 


3.80 


1 2900 


3700 


4922 


9098 


210 


(81) 1982/83 


3170 


3.03 


9600 


3500 


6483 


5765 


545 


(82) 1983/34 


2970 


3.03 


9000 


3200 


5885 


6056 


289 


C83) 1984/35 


3025 


3.04 


9200 


3725 


7060 


5448 


31 6 


(84) 1985/36 1/ 


3350 


3.43 


11500 


3800 


8900 


7200 


816 


(85) 1986/37 2/ 


3400 


3.68 


1 2500 


3800 




8800 


716 


SOUTH AFRICA 


CORN (MAY/APR) 














(73) 1979/80 


4305 


1 .92 


3271 


6702 


3303 


2325 


1359 


(79) 1980/31 


4322 


2.50 


10794 


6757 


3930 


3444 


1952 


(80) 1981/82 


4339 


3.38 


14645 


7097 


4700 


49 5 5 


4545 


(31) 1982/83 


4278 


1 .95 


8355 


7663 


2300 


4034 


1333 


(82) 1983/84 


4065 


1 .00 


4083 


7525 


75 


238 


42 




J 7 J J 






A1 ft? 


1 nn 


9 




(34) 1935/86 1/ 


3887 


1 .94 


7550 


6553 


900 


350 


911 


(85) 1936/37 2/ 


4000 


2.25 


9000 


671 1 




2000 


1 200 


THAILAND 


CORN (JUL/JUN) 














(73) 1978/79 


1386 


2.01 


2791 


691 


1927 


2078 


53 


(79) 1979/80 


1424 


2.32 


3300 


1050 


2067 


2150 


153 


(80) 1980/81 


1450 


2.21 


3200 


1108 


2113 


2142 


103 


(81) 1981/82 


1750 


2.49 


4350 


1050 


3260 


3260 


143 


(32) 1932/83 


1850 


1 .86 


3450 


1160 


2136 


2136 


297 


(83) 1983/34 


1875 


2.11 


3950 


1 300 


3026 


2846 


101 


(84) 1934/35 1/ 


1955 


2.23 


4350 


1290 


3180 


3057 


104 


(85) 1985/86 2/ 


2150 


2.40 


5150 


1450 


3500 


3400 


404 


AUSTRALIA 


BARLEY (NOV/OCT) 












(78) 1978/79 


2785 


1.44 


4006 


1560 


2007 


2112 


533 


(79) 1979/80 


2482 


1 .49 


3703 


1357 


2900 


2824 


55 


(30) 1980/31 


2451 


1.09 


2682 


831 


1540 


1781 


125 


(81) 1981/32 


2685 


1.23 


3450 


1266 


1702 


2259 


SO 


(82) 1982/83 


2452 


0.79 


1939 


1015 


600 


884 


90 


(33) 1933/84 


3109 


1.57 


4890 


810 


3721 


4117 


53 


(34) 1934/85 1/ 


3507 


1 .59 


5561 


700 


5300 


4900 


U 


(85) 1935/86 2/ 


3480 


1.44 


5000 


450 


4500 


4500 


64 


CANADA 


BARLEY (AUG/JUL) 












(78) 1978/79 


4259 


2.44 


10387 


7146 


3898 


3554 


4895 


(79) 1979/80 


3724 


2.27 


8460 


7537 


2963 


3832 


2006 


(80) 1980/81 


4634 


2.43 


11259 


6835 


4012 


3236 


3203 


(81) 1981/82 


5476 


2.51 


13724 


7046 


5543 


5722 


4161 


(82) 1982/83 


5149 


2.71 


13966 


7275 


6071 


5648 


5204 


(83) 1983/84 


4353 


2.35 


10209 


7906 


4240 


5536 


1971 


(34) 1934/35 1/ 


4566 


2.25 


10296 


7651 


2454 


2604 


2012 


(85) 1985/86 2/ 


4752 


2.58 


12250 


7500 


4500 


4300 


2462 



NOTE: YEARS IN PARENTHESES DENOTE PRODUCTION YEARS USED FOR AGGREGATING WORLD CROPS. SPLIT YEARS 
(E.G. 1932/83) ARE MARKETING YEARS. 

1/ PRELIMINARY. 
2/ PROJECTION. 

SOURCES: PREPARED OR ESTIMATED ON THE BASIS OF OFFICIAL STATISTICS OF FOREIGN GOVERNMENTS/ OTHER 
FOREIGN SOURCE MATERIALS/ REPORTS OF U.S. AGRICULTURAL ATTACHES AND FOREIGN SERVICE OFFICERS/ RESULTS 
OF OFFICE RESEARCH AND RELATED INFORMATION. 

COMMODITY PROGRAMS/ FAS/ USDA GRAIN AND FEED DIVISION 



23 



U.S. WH'AT AND C04»S' 1PAIN3 
MILLION ^xTl^IC TOSS/MrCTAStS 
^AR<ETIN3 Yi4'>S 1961/61 - 19^5 / £6 

■4 = 3INNI*J5 ft~ = A YIELD PROOJCTION IMPORTS EXPORTS DCESTIC DOMESTIC 

"TOCKS HftsVESTHD FC. CEED TOTAL USE 



TOTAL ;HE^T and C04RSE GRAINS 



1 96C/61 


105.6 


73. 3 


2.4 


175.8 


0.6 


29.0 


110.1 


137.7 


1 961 /62 


11?. 3 


64.1 


2.5 


161.0 


0 . 5 


34.7 


112.8 


140.5 


1 962/63 


134.3 


59.7 


2.7 


159.3 


Q.3 


32.9 


109.6 


1 37.9 


1963/64 


53.2 


61 .6 


2.3 


1 71 . 5 


0.4 


39.7 


106.9 


135.3 


1964/65 


90.1 


^0.2 


2.6 


157.5 


0.4 


39.5 


104.4 


173.6 


1 965/66 


76. 


59.6 


3.0 


1 79.1 


0.3 


45.9 


120.0 


143.9 


1 ^66/6? 


55. 2 


60.2 


3.0 


1 "0.7 


0.3 


41.1 


118.2 


143.6 


1 557/63 


49.5 


6-.0 


3.1 


2 03 .9 


0.3 


41 . 5 


1 1 ?. S 


1 49.5 


1 963/69 


62.7 


62.0 


3.2 


1 «7.* 


0.3 


31 .1 


126.9 


1 57. 5 


1 969/70 


71 .3 


5?. 3 


3.4 


201.0 


0.4 


35.4 


1 "^4. 0 


165.0 


1^70/71 


'2.S 


53. 4 


3.1 


132.9 


0.4 


35.5 


132.1 


162.8 


1971/72 


54.6 


62.9 


3.? 


233 .6 


0.4 


40.5 


143.1 


1^4.6 


1 972/73 


73.4 


57.5 


3.9 


224.1 


0.5 


60.1 


14 7.5 


1<?0.9 


1 973/74 


4 5.0 


63.5 


3.7 


233.3 


0.3 


73.8 


143.0 


176.7 


1 974/75 


31 .1 


67.1 


3.0 


199.4 


0.6 


63.6 


10 6.5 


140.1 


1 975/76 


27. 3 


70.8 


3.4 


243.3 


0.5 


82. 0 


116.7 


153.7 


1 C76/77 


35.5 


72.0 


3.5 


252.5 


0.4 


76.5 


115.3 


151.0 


1 977/73 


60.3 


71 .2 


3.7 


261 .4 


0.4 


?6.9 


124. S 


161 .7 


1 97£/79 


73.5 


66.0 


4.1 


270.5 


0.3 


92.7 


140.5 


1 !0.0 


1 9 7 9 / S 0 


71 .6 


67.1 


4.4 


295 .5 


0.4 


108. S 


140.9 


1 32.4 


1 9? j/81 


77.2 


70.1 


3.? 


263.1 


0.3 


110.7 


124.6 


16 5.4 


1 931/32 


61 .6 


76.1 


4.2 


322 .4 


0.4 


106. S 


132.3 


1 77. 3 


1932/33 


99.5 


74.3 


4.4 


3 2 6 .0 


0.6 


05.1 


144.9 


102.5 


1 933/';4 


138.7 


57.7 


3.5 


2 03 .0 


0.3 


94.6 


125.0 


1^5.1 


1 934/35 


69.5 


70. 6 


4.4 


30».3 


1.0 


94.7 


142.4 


105.2 


19 3 5/86 


S9.2 


71 .6 


4.5 


340.3 


0.9 


74.7 


141 .4 


195.8 



1936/37 159.9 



WHEAT 



1 970/71 


26.8 


17.7 


2.1 


36.5 


O.C 


20.2 


5.3 


21 .0 


1971/72 


22.4 


19.3 


2.3 


44.1 


0.0 


16.3 


7.1 


23.4 


1 972/73 


26.3 


19.1 


2.2 


42.1 


0.0 


30.4 


5.5 


22.3 


1973/74 


16.2 


21.9 


2.1 


46.6 


0.1 


33.1 


3.5 


20. 5 


1 974/75 


9.3 


26.5 


1 .3 


43. S 


0.1 


27.7 


1.1 


15.3 


1 975/76 


11 .3 


25.1 


2.1 


57.9 


0.1 


31 . 9 


1.0 


19.7 


1976/77 


15.1 


23.7 


2.C 


55.5 


0.1 


25.9 


2.0 


20.5 


1 977/75 


30.3 


27.0 


2.1 


55.7 


0.1 


30.6 


5.3 


23.4 


1 973/79 


32.1 


22.9 


2.1 


43.3 


0.0 


32.5 


4.3 


22.3 


1 979/30 


25.1 


25.3 


2.-» 


53.1 


0.1 


37.4 


2.3 


21.3 


1930/31 


24.5 


28. 8 


2.3 


64.5 


0.1 


41.2 


1.6 


21 .3 


1951/52 


26.9 


32.6 


2.3 


75.8 


0.1 


43.2 


3.6 


23.1 


1932/53 


31 .5 


31.5 


2.4 


75.3 


0.2 


41.1 


5.3 


24.7 


19 3^/34 


41 . 2 


24.3 


2.7 


65.9 


0.1 


33.9 


10.2 


■'0.2 


1934/35 


33.1 


27.1 


2.6 


70.6 


0.2 


3 3.3 


11.2 


31.4 


1 955/56 


38.3 


26.2 


2.5 


66.0 


0.3 


25.9 


8.8 


29.3 


tSE 'DRAINS 


















1970/71 


46.1 


40.7 


3.6 


146.1 


0.4 


10.6 


126.9 


141.8 


1971/72 


32.2 


43.6 


4.3 


13 9.5 


0.3 


24.2 


136.0 


151.3 


1 972/73 


46.6 


38.4 


4.7 


132.0 


0.4 


35.7 


142.3 


153.6 


1973/74 


31 .7 


41.6 


4.5 


186.5 


0.2 


40.7 


139.5 


156.2 


1 974/75 


21.8 


40.7 


3.7 


15 0.9 


0.5 


35.9 


105.4 


121.5 


1975/76 


1 5.5 


42.6 


4.4 


135.4 


0.4 


50.0 


115.6 


134.0 


1 976/77 


17.3 


45.' 


4.5 


194.4 


0.3 


50.6 


113.3 


131.4 


1 977/73 


3 0.0 


44.2 


4.7 


205.7 


0.3 


56.3 


110.2 


135.3 


1975/79 


41 .5 


43.2 


5.1 


222.1 


0.3 


60.2 


136.2 


157.2 


1 979/50 


46. 4 


41 .5 


5.7 


233 .4 


0.3 


71 .4 


138.5 


161.1 


1 030/ 31 


52.7 


41.3 


4.i 


193.3 


0.3 


69.5 


1 23.0 


147.1 


1931/32 


34.7 


43.4 


5.7 


246.6 


0.3 


55.6 


125.7 


154.5 


1 932/33 


65. 2 


4 3.2 


5.S 


2 5 0 .7 


0.4 


54.0 


139.6 


1 67.9 


1033/34 


07.3 


32.9 


4.2 


137.1 


0.7 


55.7 


117.8 


147.8 


1954/35 


31.3 


43.6 


5.5 


237.7 


•J . 3 


56.0 


131 .2 


163.8 


1935/56 


50.5 


45.4 


6.0 


274.3 


0.6 


43.5 


132.5 


166.6 



1956/37 109.9 



NOTES: COARSE GRAINS INCLJ3= COO^i/ SOR'-HUV, BARLEY/ OAT'S AND RYE. 
SOURCE: OFFICIAL UjDA STATISTICS OR ESTI/ATES. 

COi^ODITY RROjRA-.S/ FA3/ US')A GRAIN AND FEED DIVISION 



U.S. WHEAT, CORN, SORGHUM, BARLEY, OATS, ANLl RYE SUPPLY/ UISTRIBUTION 
MILLION BUSHELS/ MILLION ACRES 





Beginning 
Stocks 


Harves ted 
Area 


Yield 


Pr oduc t ion 


Irapor ts 


Expor ts 


Feeu Usage 


iotai 
Domes tic 


Wheat 






















1975/76 


435 


69 


. 5 


30 


. 6 


2,127 


2 


1 17 7 
i , i / J 


51 


725 


1976/77 


666 


70 


. 9 


30 


.3 


2 , 149 


3 


950 


75 


755 


1977/78 


1,113 


d6 


. 7 


30 


. 7 


2 , 046 




1 , 124 


192 


e5y 


1978/79 


1 , 178 


56 


.5 


31 


.4 


1,77b 


2 


1 , 194 


158 


837 


197y/ 80 


924 


62 


.5 


34 


.2 


2 , 134 


2 


1 , 375 


86 


783 


1980/81 


902 


71 


. 1 


33 


. 5 


2,381 


3 


l,5i4 


60 


783 


1981/82 


989 


80 


. 6 


34 


. 5 


2,785 


3 


1,771 


135 


847 


1982/ 83 


1 , 159 


7 7 


.y 


35 


. 5 


2 , 7b5 


8 


1 , 509 


195 


908 


1983/84 


1,515 


61 


.4 


39 


.4 


2 ,420 


4 


1 ,429 


369 


1 , i 1 1 


1984/ 8d 


1 , 399 


66 


.9 


38 


. 8 


2,595 


8 


1 , 424 


410 


1 , i53 


198^/86 


1 , 425 


64 


. 7 


3 7 


. 5 


2 ,425 


12 


950 


325 


1 , 075 


1986/ 87 


1,837 




















Corn 






















1975/76 


361 


67 


. 6 


86 


.4 


J , 8h JL 


7 
Z 


1 7 11 


3 , 603 


t , 093 


1976/77 


400 


7 1 


. 5 


88 


. 0 


6 , 289 


7 
J 


1 , b84 


3 , buy 


4 , 122 




80D 


70 


. 6 


92 


. 1 


(-» ^ri^ 
0 , JVJJ 


7 
J 


1 U'l ft 

i , yno 


7 7 /, /, 

J , / HH 


4 , 334 


1978/ 79 


1,111 


71 


.9 


101 


.0 


7 7 £i U 
/ , ZOO 


1 


2,133 


4,323 


4 , 94J 


19 /9/ oU 


1 , 304 


72 


.4 


109 


.5 


7 O 7 Q 

/ , yz8 


1 


7 /. 7 7 
Z ,43 J 


4 , 508 


5 , i83 


1980/81 


1,617 


73 


• U 


y i 


. U 


6,639 


1 


2,355 


4,133 


4,868 


1981/82 


1,034 


7'+ 


. 6 


108 


. 9 


8, 119 


1 


1,967 


4,201 


5,013 


LyoZ/ OJ 




72 


. 7 


113 


.2 


0 , Z J J 


1 


1 ft 7n 
i , o / u 


H , JZZ 


'. 9n 


ly83/84 


3 , 120 


51 


. 5 


81 


. 1 


4 , 175 


2 


1 , 865 


3 , 73o 


4, 709 


1984/85 


723 


71 


. 9 


106 


. 7 


7 , 674 


3 


1 , 838 


4, 117 


5 , 182 


1985/86 


1 , 381 


75 


. 1 


ll8 


. 0 


8 , 865 


- 


1 , 625 


4, 100 


5 ,220 


1986/8/ 


3,052 




















Sorghum 






















1975/76 


35 


15 


.4 


49 


.0 


/5t 




229 


502 


509 




51 


i4 


. 5 


49 


. 0 


711 




Z4o 


419 


425 


1977/78 


91 


13 


.8 


56 


. 6 


781 




213 


456 


4o8 


79 


191 


13 


.4 


54 


. 5 


7 7 1 
/ J 1 




207 


5'^4 


553 


1979/80 


160 


12 


.9 


62 


. 6 


307 




325 


483 


496 


1980/81 


146 


1 '; 


. 5 


A ft 
HO 


• J 


579 


_ 


299 


306 


317 


1981/82 


109 


13 


. 7 


64 


.0 


876 


- 


249 


429 


440 




9Qh 


14 


. 1 


59 


. 1 






214 




J X / 


1983/8'+ 


400 


10 


. 0 


48 


. 7 


488 




246 


381 


39 1 


1984/ 85 


251 


15 


.3 


56 


.4 


866 




299 


527 


547 


1985/86 


271 


16 


. 7 


66 


. 7 


1,113 




275 


575 


595 


1 n O £L / O "7 

1986/ 8/ 


514 




















Bar ley 






















1975/76 


92 


8 


. 6 


44 


. 1 


379 


16 


24 


186 


335 


1976/ 77 


128 


8 


.4 


45 


. 6 


383 


11 


66 


172 


330 


1977/78 


126 


9 


. 7 


•^4 


.0 


428 


9 


57 


177 


333 


1978/79 


173 


9 


.2 


49 


.2 


455 


10 


26 


217 


384 


ly /y / ou 


O 0 Q 

Z/8 


7 


.5 


50 


.9 


Jo J 


iZ 


55 


204 


376 


1980/81 


192 


7 


.3 


49 


. 7 


361 


10 


77 


174 


349 


1981/82 


137 


9 


.0 


52 


.4 


474 


10 


100 


198 


372 


1982/ 83 


148 


y 


. U 


c 7 
J / 


. Z 


516 


1 1 


47 


241 


4ll 




217 


9 


. 7 


52 


, 3 


509 


7 


y z 


O ft 7 


A =i 7 

4 JZ 


1 Q ft A. / k S 


189 


li 


.2 


53 


.4 


5 y 9 


10 


7 7 




H / 4- 


1985/86 


247 


]^]^ 


. 5 


5 1 


. 0 


589 


7 


25 


300 


470 


1986/87 


349 




















Oats 






















1975/76 


224 


13 


.0 


49 


. 0 


b39 


1 


14 


560 


645 


1976/77 


205 


]^ 


. 8 


45 




540 


2 


10 


490 


573 


1977/78 


164 


13 


.5 


55 


. 6 


753 


2 


12 


509 


5yt 


1978/79 


313 


11 


.1 


52 


.3 


582 


1 


13 


525 


003 


1979/80 


280 


9 


. 7 


54 


.4 


527 


1 


4 


492 


568 


1980/81 


236 


8 


.7 


53 


.0 


45y 


i 


13 


432 


50d 


1981/82 


177 


9 


.4 


54 


.2 


510 


2 


7 


454 


530 


1982/83 


152 


10 


.3 


57 


. 8 


593 




3 


441 


52b 


1 n Q 0 / o / 

lyoj/ 84 


220 


9 


. 1 


52 


. 6 


47 7 


30 


2 


466 


544 


1984/85 


181 


8 


.2 


58 


. 0 


474 


34 


1 


433 


507 


1985/86 


180 


8 


.2 


63 


. b 


519 


25 


2 


475 


553 


1986/87 


16 7 




















Rye 

1975/76 


7 


0 


. 7 


22 


.9 


16 


I 


I 


7 


18 


1976/ 77 


4 


0 


. 7 


21 


.4 


15 






5 


15 


1977/78 


4 


0 


. 7 


24 


.4 


17 






7 


17 


1978/79 


4 


0 


.9 


26 


.0 


24 






8 


19 


1979/80 


9 


0 


. 9 


25 


. 7 


22 




2 


7 


17 


1980/81 


12 


0 


.7 


24 


.6 


ib 


- 


8 


7 


16 


1981 /o2 


4 


0 


.7 


26 


.6 


18 




2 


8 


18 


1982/83 


3 


0 


.7 


28 


.9 


20 


3 




10 


20 


1983/84 


6 


0 


.9 


30 


.3 


27 


2 


1 


12 


22 


1984/85 


11 


1 


.0 


33 


.0 


32 


1 


1 


14 


24 


1985/86 


20 


0 


.7 


30 


.0 


21 


2 


1 


13 


23 


1986/87 


18 





















Notes: Commodity Years As Follows: 

Sorghum. 
"-" Denotes zero. 



June/May-Wneat , Barley, Oats ana Rye; Octooer/ September-Cora ana 



Source: World Agricultural Supply and Demana Estimates No. lyu , February 10, ly86 



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26 



^ORLD WHEAT AND COARSE GfAINS 
SUPPLY/DEMAND 196^/61 - 1955/36 
MILLIONS OF 'lETRIC TONS / H EC T A RE S 



AREA YIELD PRODUCTION WORLD UTILIZATION ENDING STOCKS AS 

HARVESTED TRADE 1/ TOTAL 2/ STICS 3/ X OF JTIL 

WHEAT 



1 960/61 


202 


_ 2 




.18 


238, 


4 


41. 


g 


234. 


Q 


31 . 


g 


34. 


g 


19 61/6^ 


2C3 


^ 4 


1 


• 10 


2 24. S 


4 6. 


3 


2 3 6. 


i. 


70. 


2 


29 . 


7 


1 9 6 2/63 


206 




-J 


• 22 


251 .3 


4 4. 


J 


24 8. 


1 


74 • 


Q 


29 . 


g 


1 0 ^ ^ / A 


2C6 


^ 3 




.13 


233 


9 


5 6. 




240^ 


0 


67. 


g 


28 . 


3 


1 Q A A / A c 


215 


, 9 




.25 


2 70. 4 


5 2. 


Q 


2 6 2 . 


Q 


76^ 


2 


29. 




1 0 >v ^ / A A 
1 7 0 J / 0 0 


21 5 


c 


•J 


.22 


^ 63 • 




61. 


Q 


281 . 




5 5. 


3 


19. 


7 


1 9 6 6/67 


213 


a 6 




.44 


J UO 1 


■7 


5 6. 


; 


27 9. 




8 2. 




29. 




19 67/63 


C 1 7 


• c 


1 


.30 


2 97 ■ 


6 


5 y 




239. 




7 J . 




31 • 


3 


196 3/69 


22^ 






• 48 


3 3C 


g 


4 5 


Q 


306. 




115. 


Q 


37 ■ 




1 9 0 9 / 7 


217 


> 8 


"I 


• 42 


310. 


0 


5 0. 


Q 


3 27 




97 • 


g 


30 , 


r. 


1 970 /7 1 


207 




■y 


• 52 


313 


7 


5 5. 


Q 


3 37. 


2 


74. 


3 


22 • 


Q 


1 971 /7 2 


21 2 


^ 9 


'\ 


• 65 


351 , 


n 


5 2. 




344. 


3 


81 • 


Q 


2 3 • 




1 97 2/73 


Z1 1 


■ 0 


1 


• 63 


343. 


4 


67. 


Q 


361 . 




6 2 • 


^ 


1 7 • 


3 


1973/74 


217 


. 1 


1 


• 72 


373. 


2 


63. 


0 


365. 




70. 


2 


19. 


2 


1 974/75 


220 


.1 


1 


.64 


360 


2 


64. 


3 


366. 


6 


63. 


7 


17. 


4 


1975/76 


225 


.4 


1 


• 58 


356 


6 


66. 


7 


356. 


3 


64. 


2 


18. 


C 


1 976/77 


233 


.2 


1 


• 81 


421 


4 


63. 


3 


385. 


9 


99. 


3 


26. 


2 


1 977/78 


227 


.1 


1 


.69 


3 84 


1 


72. 


S 


399. 


4 


34. 


2 


20. 


8 


1978/79 


228 


.9 


1 


.95 


446 


8 


72. 


0 


430. 


2 


100. 


9 


23. 


9 


1 979/80 


228 


.3 


1 


.36 


424 


«; 


80. 


0 


444. 


3 


81 . 


0 


18. 


4 


1980/31 


237 


.0 


1 


.87 


442. 


9 


94. 


1 


445. 


7 


73. 


2 


17. 


6 


1981/32 


233 


.7 


1 


.38 


448 


4 


101 . 


3 


441 . 


5 


85. 


0 


1 9. 


4 


1 932/83 


237 


.5 


2 


.02 


479 


1 


93. 


6 


467. 


9 


96. 


3 


20. 


9 


1933/34 


229 


,1 


2 


.14 


490 


, 9 


101 . 


9 


486. 


3 


101. 


0 


21. 


C 


1984/S5 4/ 


231 


.4 


2 


.22 


514 


8 


106. 


6 


5CO. 




115. 


8 


23. 


3 


1935/36 5/ 


229 


.4 


2 


.19 


503 




90. 


0 


493. 


5 


125. 


7 


25. 


5 



COARSE GRAINS 



1 960/61 


324.4 


1.38 


447.9 


24.0 


437.2 


109.7 


25.1 


1 9e1 /')2 


322.4 


1.35 


434. 2 


30.0 


449.3 


94.7 


21.1 


1962/63 


320.9 


1.43 


459. 5 


31.0 


461 .5 


92.7 


20.1 


1963/64 


324.9 


1.44 


467.8 


34.0 


462. 6 


97.9 


21 .2 


1 964/65 


321 .? 


1.47 


473.1 


35.0 


480. C 


91 .0 


18.9 


1 965/66 


320.1 


1 .51 


484.7 


42.0 


5C0. 5 


75.1 


15.0 


1 966/S7 


321 .0 


1.62 


520. 


40.0 


51 9.5 


76.1 


14.7 


1 967/63 


326.5 


1 .69 


550. 3 


39. C 


541 .6 


35.3 


15.7 


1963/69 


325.9 


1 .70 


552 .7 


37.0 


543.0 


90.0 


16.4 


1 9o9/7 : 


330.4 


1.74 


575 .6 


39.0 


575. 4 


90.2 


15.7 


1 970/71 


331.3 


1 .74 


575. 2 


46.0 


592. 2 


73.2 


12.4 


1 971 /72 


332 .5 


1.89 


629.1 


49. 3 


61 5.4 


37.0 


14.2 


1 972/73 


325.7 


1.37 


607. 8 


59.2 


624.8 


69.9 


11.2 


1 973/74 


344.1 


1.95 


671 . 3 


71 .0 


674.8 


65^ 3 


9.7 


1 974/75 


341 .9 


1.35 


631 . 2 


65.0 


634.4 


61 . 0 


9.6 


1975/76 


349.3 


1.85 


046.1 


75.2 


646. 2 


58^6 


9.1 


1 976/77 


344.7 


2.04 


7C4.8 


33.9 


685.4 


78. 2 


11.4 


1977/73 


346.4 


2.03 


701 .6 


33.8 


693.0 


36.7 


12.5 


1 978/70 


343.8 


2.20 


755 .1 


92.7 


749.4 


92. 2 


12.3 


1979/30 


343.2 


2.17 


743. 9 


99,2 


743.3 


92. 8 


12.4 


1930/31 


342.4 


2.14 


732.9 


108.0 


743.0 


32.8 


11.3 


1931/82 


350.2 


2.20 


769. 9 


96-6 


739.8 


112.9 


15.2 


1 932/33 


339.2 


2.30 


779. 2 


89. 9 


753. 5 


138.6 


18^3 


1933/34 


334.3 


2.05 


685 .4 


92^0 


757.1 


66. 8 


8.9 


1984/85 4/ 


339.0 


2.38 


B07. 9 


101 .2 


777.8 


96.9 


12.5 


1985/86 5/ 


343.6 


2.46 


843.8 


94.8 


782. 3 


158.4 


20.4 



WHEAT AND COARSE GRAINS 



1 960/61 


526. 


6 


1 


.30 


686.3 


65. 


9 


672. 


0 


191. 


5 


28. 


5 


1961/62 


525 . 


3 


1 


.25 


659. 0 


76. 


8 


685. 


6 


164. 


9 


24. 


1 


1962/63 


527. 


3 


1 


• 35 


'11 .4 


75. 


4 


709. 


6 


166. 


6 


23. 


5 


1 963/64 


531 . 


2 


1 


• 32 


701 .7 


90. 


0 


702. 


6 


165. 


7 


23. 


6 


1964/65 


537. 


7 


1 


• 38 


743.5 


S7. 


c 


742. 


0 


167. 


2 


22. 


5 


1965/66 


535. 


6 


1 


• 40 


748. 0 


103. 


0 


782. 


1 


130. 


4 


16. 


7 


1966/67 


534 . 


7 


1 


• 55 


3 27. 2 


96. 


0 


799. 


3 


158. 


3 


19. 


£ 


1967/63 


545. 


7 


1 


• 55 


843.4 


39. 


9 


330. 


8 


175. 


0 


21 . 


2 


1 968/69 


549. 


3 


1 


• 61 


333. 5 


5 2. 


0 


354. 


4 


205. 


0 


24. 


0 


1 969/70 


543. 


2 


1 


.62 


«85.6 


39. 


1 


902. 


6 


188. 


0 


20. 


9 


1970/71 


538. 


3 


1 


.65 


888.8 


101 . 


0 


929. 


4 


147. 


5 


15. 


9 


1 971 /72 


545. 


4 


1 


.30 


9 80.1 


101 . 


3 


95 9. 


7 


167. 


9 


17. 


5 


1972/73 


536. 


8 


1 


.77 


951 . 3 


126. 


2 


986. 


6 


132. 


4 


13. 


4 


1973/74 


561 . 


2 


1 


.86 


1044. 5 


1 34. 


n 


1 040. 


4 


1 36. 


0 


13. 


1 


1 974/75 


562. 


0 


1 


.76 


991 .4 


129. 


3 


1 001 . 


1 


124. 


7 


12. 


5 


1975/76 


574. 


7 


1 


.74 


1002.3 


141 . 


9 


1 002. 


5 


122. 


3 


12. 


3 


1976/77 


577. 


9 


1 


.95 


1126.2 


147. 


1 


1 C71 . 


3 


178. 


1 


16. 


7 


1977/73 


573. 


5 


1 


.89 


1085. 8 


161. 


e 


1 092. 


5 


170. 


9 


15. 


6 


1 978/79 


572. 


7 


2 


.10 


1202.0 


164. 


7 


1 179. 


6 


193. 


0 


16. 


5 


1979/30 


571 . 


5 


2 


.04 


1 1 68.4 


1 35. 


2 


1187. 


0 


173. 


8 


14. 


7 


1980/31 


579. 


4 


2 


.03 


1175.8 


202. 


1 


11S8. 


7 


161. 


0 


13. 


6 


1981/32 


533. 


8 


2 


.07 


1218.3 


198. 


T 


1181. 


4 


197. 


9 


16. 


7 


1982/83 


576. 


7 


2 


.18 


1258.4 


188. 


6 


1 221 . 


4 


234. 


9 


19. 


3 


1983/84 


563. 


4 


2 


.09 


1176.3 


193. 


9 


1 243. 


4 


167. 


8 


13. 


6 


1934/35 4/ 


570. 


4 


2 


.32 


1 322.7 


207. 


3 


1 277. 


8 


212. 


6 


16. 


7 


1985/86 5/ 


573. 


0 


2 


.35 


1 347. 3 


1 34. 


8 


1 275. 


7 


284. 


1 


22. 


4 



NOTE: "STOCKS AS PERCENT OF UTILIZATION" REPRESENT THE RATIO OF HABKETING TEAR ENDING 
STOCKS TO TOTAL UTILIZATION. 

1/ TRADE ')ATA AS EXPRESSED IN THIS TAHLE EXCLUDE INTRA-EC TRADE. WHEAT AND COARSE GRAINS 
ARE ON A JULY/JUNE TRADE YEAR THROUGH 1975/76. FBOH 1976/77 ONr THE TRADE YEAR FOR 
COARSE G°AINS IS 0 C TO S E R / S EP T EM SE R . 

2/ FOR COUNTRIES FOR WHICH STOCKS DATA ARE NOT AVAILABLE (EXCLUDING THE USSR) UTILIZATION 
ESTI>(ATES REPRESENT "APPARENT" UTILIZATION, I.E. INCLUDE ANNUAL STOCK LEVEL ADJUSTMENTS. 

3/ STOCKS DATA ARE 3ASE0 ON AN AGGREGATE OF DIFFERING LOCAL MARKETING YEARS AND SHOULD NCT 
3E CONSTRUED AS REPPESENTING WORLD iTCCK LEVELS AT A FIXED POINT IN TIME. STOCKS DATA 
ARE NOT AVAILA9LE FOR ALL COUNTRIES AND EXCLUDE THOSE SUCH AS THE PEOPLE'S REPUBLIC Of 
CHINA AND PARTS OF EASTERN EUROPE. WORLD STOCK LEVELS HAVE BEEN ADJUSTED FOR ESTIMATED 
YEAR-TO-YEAR CHANGES IN USSR GRAIN STOCKS, BUT DO NOT PURPORT TO INCLUDE THE ABSOLUTE 
LEVEL OF USSR GRAIN STOCKS. 

4/ PRELIMINARY. 

5/ PROJECTION. 

SOURCES: PREPARED OR ESTIMATED ON THE BASIS OF OFFICIAL STATISTICS OF FOREIGN GOVERNMENTS/ 
OTHER FOREIGN SOURCE MATERIALS, REPORTS OF U.S. AGRICULTURAL ATTACHES AND FOREIGN SERVICE 
OFFICERS, RESULTS OF OFFICE RESEARCH AND RELATED INFORMATION. 

COMMODITY PROGRAMS, FAS, USDA GRAIN AND FEED DIVISION 



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28 



WOSLD -^OTAL GRAINS 
SUPPLY/DE'^AND 1^60/61 - 1 985/S6 
yiLLIONS OF ^^5T»IC TO N S / H E C T A R E S 





AREA 


YIELD 


PRODUCTION 


WO?LD 


UTILIZATION 


ENDING 


STOCKS AS 




HARVESTED 






T 0 A D E 1 / 


TOTAL 2/ 


ST<? ?/ 


% OF UTIL 


1 963/61 


64 6.7 


1.31 


846.3 


72.4 


S32.3 


1 99.4 


23.9 


1 961 /62 


641 .6 


1.26 


506.3 


83.2 


333 .3 


171 .9 


20.6 


1 962/63 


647.4 


1 .34 


366. 5 


82.7 


864.9 


1 73.5 


20.1 


1963/64 


65 2 .6 


1.33 


370.7 


97.7 


S69.9 


1 74. 5 


20.1 


1 064/65 


663.0 


1.39 


924.3 


95.3 


91 9.3 


179.0 


19.5 


1 965/66 


65^.6 


1 .40 


921 .3 


110.9 


955.2 


142.4 


14.9 


1 966/67 


6 6 0.4 


1.52 


1 006.4 


103.7 


9 50.0 


1 68.9 


17.2 


1 967/63 


672.7 


1.54 


1 037.3 


97.1 


1017.4 


1 39.3 


13.6 


1 96S/69 


67^.4 


1.59 


1079.2 


?9. 5 


10 46.7 


221 .7 


21.2 


1 969/70 


679.6 


1.60 


1057.2 


97.3 


1102.3 


2 06.6 


18.8 


1 973/71 


671 .0 


1 .64 


1102.5 


109.6 


11 43. 8 


165.2 


14.4 


1 971/72 


680.2 


1.76 


1196.5 


110.0 


1175.5 


13 3.3 


15.6 


1972/^3 


669.5 


1 .73 


116 0.9 


1 34.6 


1 201 .2 


142.8 


11.9 


1973/74 


697. S 


1.82 


1 272 .6 


141.6 


1 266.3 


148.5 


11.7 


1 974/73 


699.8 


1 .74 


1217.7 


136.6 


1229.2 


135. i 


11.0 


1 975/76 


71 7.4 


1 .74 


1 246.7 


150.3 


1 237.8 


1 42.1 


11.5 


1 976/77 


719.3 


1 .90 


1363.1 


157.7 


1 309.7 


• 1 95.8 


15.0 


1977/73 


71 6.8 


1 . 37 


1357.2 


171.2 


1338.9 


1 93.7 


14.4 


1978/79 


716.3 


2. 04 


1465.7 


176.7 


1438.2 


220.9 


15.5 


1 979/80 


71 3.0 


2.00 


1426.6 


1 97.9 


1450.2 


1 97. 2 


13.6 


1930/51 


723.9 


2.00 


1446.5 


215.2 


1461 .1 


1 33. 2 


12.6 


1981/82 


734.0 


2.04 


1 49S.9 


2 0 9.8 


1462.8 


219.2 


15.0 


1932/83 


71 7.9 


2.15 


1544.1 


200.5 


1511.0 


252 .2 


16.7 


1 933/34 


70 7.7 


2.10 


1 434.3 


206.5 


1551.5 


1 35.0 


12.0 


1934/85 4/ 


714.4 


2.30 


1641.4 


21 9. 3 


1 591 .9 


234 .5 


14.8 


1935/86 5/ 


71 6.2 


2.3 2 


1 661 .0 


196.2 


15SS.0 


307.5 


19.5 



NOTE: "STOCKS AS PERCENT UTILIZATION" REPRESENT THE RATIO OF "^lARK^TING YEAR ENDING 
STOCKS TO TOTAL UTILIZATION. 

1/ TRADE DATA AS EXPRESSED IN THIS TA3LE EXCLUDE IV'TRA-EC TRADE. WHEAT AND COARSE GRAINS 
ARE ON A JULY/JUNE 3ASIS TM5?3UGH 1 975/76 . FRO"^ 1976/77 ON/- THE TRADE YEAR FOR 
COARSE GRAINS IS 0 C TOB E R /S E P TE 3E R . 

2/ FOR COUNTRIES FOR WHICH STOCKS DATA ARE NOT AVAILABLE (EXCLUDING THE USSR) UTILIZaTlON 
ESTIMATES REPRESENT "APPARENT" UTILIZATION, I.E. INCLUDE ANNUAL STOCK LEVEL ADJUSTMENTS. 

3/ STOCKS DATA ARE 3ASED ON AN AGGREGATE OF DIFFERING LOCAL MARKETING YEARS AND SHOULD NOT 
3E CONSTRUED AS REPRESENTING WORLD STOCK LEVELS AT A FIXED POINT IN TIME. STOCKS DATA 
ARE NOT AVAILABLE FOR ALL COUNTRIES AND EXCLUDE THOSE SUCH AS THE PEOPLE'S REPUBLIC OF 
CHINA AND PARTS OF EASTERN EUROPE. WORLD STOCK LEVELS HAVE BE'N ADJUSTED FOR ESTIMATED 
YEAR-TO-YEAR CHANGES IN USSR GRAIN STOCKS/ 3UT DO NOT ©URPCRT TO INCLUDE THE ABSOLUTE 
LEVEL OF USSR GRAIN STOCKS. 

4/ PRELIMINARY. 

5/ PROJECTION. 

SOURCES: PREPARED OR ESTIMATED ON THE 3ASIS OF OFFICIAL STATISTIC? OF FOREIGN GCVERN-IENTSr 
OTHER FOREIGN SOURCE MATERIALS, REPORTS OF U.S. AGRICULTURAL ATTACHES AND FOREIGN SERVICE 
OFFICERS, RESULTS OF OFFICE RESEARCH AND RELATED INFORMATION. 

COMMODITY PROGRAMS, FAS, USDA GRAIN AND FEED DIVISION 



29 



EXPORT PRICES FOR WHEAT AND CORN FEBRUARY 1981-FEBRUARY 1986 
(BASIS FOB, U.S. DOLLARS PER METRIC TON) 











WHEAT 






CORN 








U.S. 


ARGENTINA 


CANADA 




AUSTRALIA 


U.S. 


ARGENTINA 






GULF 




VANCOUVER 


1/ 


STD. WHITE 


GULF 








#2 H.W. 




#1 CWRS 12. 


5 




#3 Yellow 




1981 


CY 


177 


189 


212 




175 


134 


137 


1982 


CY 


162 


166 


187 




160 


110 


109 


1983 


CY 


158 


138 


185 




161 


137 


133 


1984 


CY 


153 


135 


186 




153 


138 


132 


1985 


CY 


138 


108 


178 




140 


113 


102 


1985 


















Feb 




149 


111 


179 




150 


120 


106 3/ 


Mar 




146 


114 


179 




149 


121 


109 


Apr 

IT 




146 


113 


181 




148 


122 


110 


May 




137 


112 


180 




145 


118 


109 


June 




134 


107 4/ 


178 




141 


117 


111 


July 




130 


107 


171 




134 


114 


112 


Aug 




124 


98 


163 




128 


103 


101 5/ 


Sep 




128 


93 


165 




131 


103 


88 


Oct 




130 


92 


173 




134 


100 


90 


Nov 




136 


98 


181 




139 


108 


95 


Dec 




139 


114 


184 




144 


111 


100 


Jan 


07 


136 


113 


184 




141 


110 


101 




14 


134 


110 


183 




140 


109 


102 




21 


131 


109 


183 




140 


109 


101 




28 


132 


101 


179 




138 


107 


97 


Feb 


04 


130 


102 


178 




135 


107 


97 




11 


132 


102 


176 




133 


106 


97 



\J In Store Export Elevator 
2/ Jan-Feb-Mar 85 
3^/ Apr-May-June 85 

4/ This and later prices are for Jan-Feb-Mar 1986 delivery. 

b_l This and later prices are for Apr-May-Jun 1986 delivery. 



30 



SELECTED WORLD GRAIN PRICES, CIF ROTTERDAM \l 
Wheat Marketing Years 1970/71 - 1985/86 
(In U.S. dollars per metric ton) 



Wheat 



Corn 



U.S. No. 2 Dark 
Northern Spring 
14% 



Canadian 
Western Red 
Spring 13 1/2% 



U.S. No. 3 

Yellow 
Corn 



1970/71 
1971/72 
1972/73 
1973/74 
1974/75 
1975/76 
1976/77 
1977/78 
1978/79 
1979/80 
1980/81 
1981/82 
1982/83 
1983/84 
1984/85 



(July 
(July 
(July 
(July 
(July 
(July 
( June- 
(June- 
( June- 
(June- 
( June• 
( June- 
( June- 
( June- 
(June- 



■June) 

-June) 

-June) 

■June) 

-June) 

-June) 

-May) 

-May) 

-May) 

-May) 

-May) 

-May) 

-May) 

-May) 

-May) 



73.70 
69.75 
100.15 
202.95 
204.25 
186.86 
147.05 
131.30 
153.70 
199.65 
218.45 
193.90 
178.45 
186.40 
175.69 



74.15 2/ 

72.45 
101.95 
214.40 
209.70 
195.85 
149.55 
140 . 85 
165.20 
N/A 
N/A 
215.30 
198.85 
201.50 
180.34 



69.10 
57.00 
77.10 
132.90 
144.80 
128.80 
122.00 
105.80 
116.60 
138.20 
164.15 
135.40 
125.25 
157.90 
139.43 



1985/86 



June 



165.80 



183.25 



128.50 



July 
Aug 
Sep 
Oct 



155.90 
148 . 00 
155.75 
168.20 



166.25 
156.63 
159.75 4/ 
184.10 



125.65 
114.75 
113.40 
111.40 



Nov 



177.10 



189.30 



118.25 



Dec 

Jan 07 
14 
21 
28 

Feb 04 
11 



177.67 

179.00 
178.00 
174.00 
174.00 
174.00 
174.50 



N.Q. 

N.Q. 
N.Q. 
N.Q. 
N.Q. 
N.Q. 
N.Q. 



119.25 

119.00 
120.50 
120.00 
117.50 
117.00 
117.00 



\_l Asking prices for Rotterdam 30-day delivery, as shown by Hamburg 
Mercantile Exchange. 

Ij Prior to September 1971 prices for No. 2 Manitoba Northern. 
3_/ April-May shipment 
4/ First two weeks only. 



31 



FOOTNOTES TO WORLD GRAIN SUMMARY AND TRADE TABLES 



1) Includes wheat flour and products. 

2) Argentina, Australia, Canada, South Africa, and Thailand. 

3) Adjusted for transshipment througn Canadian ports: excluaes products other 
than flour. 

4) Wheat, rye, corn, barley, oats, sorghum, millet, and mixed grains. 

5) Production data includes all harvest occurring witnm the July-June year 
indicated, except that small grain crops from the early narvestmg Northern 
Hemisphere areas are "moved forwarc;" i.e., the May 1984 harvests in areas 
such as India, North Africa and southern United States are actually 
included in "1984/85" accounting period wnich begins July 1, 1984, for 
wheat or October 1, 1984, for coarse grains. 

6) "Bunker weight" basis; not discounted for excess moisture ana foreign 
mater ial . 

7) Utilization data are based on an aggregate of differing local marketing 
years. For countries for which stocks data are not available (.excluding 
the USSR) utilization estimates represent "apparent" utilization; i.e., 
they are inclusive of annual stock level adjustments. 

8) Stocks data are based on aggregate of differing local marketing years and 
should not be construed as representing world stock level at a fixea point 
in time. Stocks data are not available for all countries and exclude those 
such as the People's Republic of China, and parts of Eastern Europe: The 
world stock levels have been adjusted for estimated year-to-year changes in 
the USSR grain stocks, but do not purport to include the entire aosolute 
level of USSR stocks. 

9) Inclusive of Soviet stock changes; see footnote 8. 



Tnis circular was prepared by the Grain and Feed Division, Commodity Programs, 
FAS/USDA, Washington, D.C. 20230. Further information may be obtained by 
writing the Division or telepnonmg (202) 447-2009. 

Note: The previous report in the series was World Grain Situation/Outlook : 
Foreign Agriculture Circular FG-1-83 January 1986. For furtner aetails on tne 
worla grain production and USSR outlook see "World Crop Production" Foreign 
Agriculture Circular WCP-2-86, February 10, 1986, and "USSR Grain Situation 
and Outlook" Foreign Agriculture Circular SG-2-&6, February 1986. 



32 



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FG-3-86 
March 1986 



Foreign Agriculture Circular 

Grains 

World Grain Situation and Outlool^ 



A timely issue, with Spain now entering the. fold of the Common Agriculture Policy 
(CAP) of the European Community (EC), is the potential effect of this accession upon 
the world grain situation. A look at the effect of the CAP on the United Kingdom's 
production and net exports of grain after its accession to the EC, presented 
graphically below, may provide some insights. Prior to EC entry, from 1960 to 1977, 
grain yields in the UK were increasing at a fairly moderate rate. After becoming 
fully covered by the CAP in 1978, UK yields increased at a much faster rate, so that 
three years later, the UK became a net exporter of grain. Today, the yield gap 
between the pre-CAP and the current trend lines Is 1.5 tons per hectare which 
represents about 6 million tons. If UK net exports of grain had followed the pre-CAP 
trend, the United Kingdom would now be a net importer of 6 or 7 million tons of grain 
annually; instead the UK now exports 3 or 4 million tons more than it imports. 

A similar change in Spain's grain yield of 1.5 tons per hectare, also over a period of 
several years, would result in a large extra increase in Spanish grain production. 
Even without taking into account the effect of higher CAP prices on Spanish grain 
usage, the production effect would mean some combination of reduced imports and 
increased exports with a yearly impact of 11 million tons upon the rest of the world. 



MT/HA 
7 r 



6 - 



UNITED KINGDOM: GRAIN YIELD 
ACTUAL VS TREND 

EC ACCESSION 




19M 1962 1964 1966 1968 1970 1972 1974 1976 1978 1980 1982 1984 
MARKETIN6 YEAR 



KT/HA 
6 r 



SPAIN: GRAIN YIELD 
ACTUAL VS TTiEfC 

EC ACCESSION 



1968 1971 1972 1974 1976 1978 19et 1982 1984 1986 1988 199« 1M2 
HARKETIN6 YEAR 



UNITED KINGDOM: NET EXPORTS OF GRAIN 
ACTUAL VS TREND 




1960 1962 1964 1966 1968 1970 1972 1974 1976 1978 1980 1982 1984 
I1ARKETIN6 YEAR 



UNITED KINGDOM: 



IMPORTS AND EXPORTS OF GRAIN 

EC ACCESSION 




19G0 1962 1964 1966 19G8 1970 1972 1974 1376 1978 1980 1982 1984 



MARKETIN6 YEAR 



1/ Baaed on difference in yield of 1.5 MT/HA and area of 4,021 hectares. NOTE: The balance of the step-up in UK net 
trade (exports) not explained by accelerated yield is mainly due to a slow-down in the trend of grain usage in the UK, also 
presuniably affected by the increased foreign protection provided by the CAP. Supporting data on page 8. 



Approved by the World Agricultural Outlook Board - USDA 



March 11, 1986 



CONTENTS Page 

World Grain Outlook 3 

World Wheat Outlook 4 

World Coarse Grain Outlook 5 

World Rice Outlook 7 



TABLES 

Spain Accession Information (Cover Data) 8 

World Summary Tables: Wheat and Coarse Grains, Wheat, 

Coarse Grains, Rice, Com, Sorghum, and Barley 9-15 

World Wheat and Flour Trade 16 

World Coarse Grain Trade 17 

World Rice Trade 18 

European Community: Grain Supply-Disappearance 19 

Eastern Europe: Grain Supply-Disappearance 20 

USSR and China: Grain Supply-Disappearance 21 

Wheat: Supply-Disappearance for Selected Major Exporters 22 

Coarse Grains: Supply-Disappearance for Selected Major Exporters 23 

U.S.: Wheat and Coarse Grains 24 

U.S.: Wheat, Corn, Sorghum, Barley, Oats and Rye Supply-Disappearance 25 

U.S.: Rice Supply-Distribution 26 

World Wheat and Coarse Grain Supply/Demand 27 

World Rice Supply/Demand 28 

World Total Grains Supply /Demand 29 

Weekly Export Prices for Wheat and Corn: U.S., Canada, 

Australia, and Argentina 30 

Selected World Grain Prices, CIF Rotterdam 31 

Selected World Wheat Prices (Supporting Graphichs) 32 

Selected World Corn Prices (Supporting Graphichs) 33 

Footnotes to World Grain Summary Tables 34 



2 



**WORLD GRAIN SITUATION/OUTLOOK** 



The world grain situation continues to be dominated by expectations for lower world 
grain prices given the new, reduced U.S. loan rates for wheat, coarse grains, and 
rice, and the outlook, for expected 1986 crop supplies. For grain-exporting 
countries the adjustment to these new, lower world prices has meant an increased 
emphasis on near-term sales and shipments; while for importers it has meant the 
continued deferment of grain purchases, further hand-to-mouth buying, and in some 
cases, foregone purchases which may lower total grain use. These activities have 
contributed to the current weakness in U.S. grain exports. However, continued 
uncertainty over the adequacy of U.S. free-market wheat supplies has resulted in a 
month-long firming of old-crop wheat prices. The U.S. corn situation has been 
somewhat different, though, as prospects for larger free-market, U.S. supplies in 
the near-term, weak demand for exports, and large exportable Argentine corn 
supplies have driven prices, including U.S. March corn, to new seasonal lows. This 
month, the sharply lagging U.S. grain sales, and lowered expectations for future 
sales, contributed to significantly reduced forecasts for U.S. wheat, corn, and 
sorghum exports . 

This transitional period, characterized by limited importer demand, aggressive 
foreign sales activity, and sharply lower U.S. grain exports, can be expected to 
continue at least into June when the new U.S. wheat program will be fully 
implemented. Lower wheat prices, particularly relative to corn, may mean a 
short-term increase in wheat feeding. Other factors to impact coarse grain markets 
during this period may include, the aggressive Argentine corn marketing program and 
the uncertainty surrounding the South African corn crop. 

The longer term world grain outlook will probably be highlignted by markedly lower 
world prices and larger volumes of world grain trade* Expectations of lower grain 
prices, improving economic conditions, and reduced oil costs to oil-importing 
countries may all have a positive effect on world grain trade by encouraging 
increased grain consumption and expanding livestock production. An immediate 
response to lower grain prices may be sharply higher import volumes, as countries 
satisfy pent-up demand and build stocks which may have been depleted. As importers 
respond to lower prices, utilization can be expected to increase for both human 
consumption and livestock production, resulting in increased demand for both wheat 
and coarse grains. Countries with expanding livestock industries, for example 
China, may over a period of several years, decrease actual exportable grain 
supplies and increase the volume of grain trade by traditional exporters. 

Of a more speculative and long-term nature will be the production response of major 
exporting countries to the new price situation. The initial response will probably 
be one of a slowdown in the current production expansion. On the other hand, an 
initial tendency may be to resist any slowdown in production and, in some 
instances, to increase competitiveness through improved product marketability or 
the use of subsidy programs. In countries such as the European Community (EC), the 
use of these programs may mean substantially higher subsidy costs, so that in the 
end, the subsidy programs might eventually be modified to reflect more fundamental 
economic and financial realities. In the United States, the initial result of this 
new legislative situation will probably be one of somewhat reduced production due 
to large participation in government programs and further steps to conserve 
erodible farmland. However, as world utilization begins to expand in response to 
lower grain prices, and competing countries limit their growth in output, U.S. 
grain production may increase significantly as it responds to growing demand for 
U.S. exports. 



3 



**WHEAT** 



World wheat trade expectations declined further this month as wheat purchases 
for many importing countries - with the notable exception of the Soviet Union - 
continue to lag and some countries even begin to contract for new-crop 1986 
wheat. World wheat trade in 1985/86 is now forecast at approximately 89 
million metric tons, down a million tons from last month's estimate. Wheat 
sales by all of the major exporters have tapered-off in the recent month as 
attention, at least in the United States and the EC, is beginning to center on 
the 1986 crops which apparently overwintered in fairly good condition. 

MAJOR IMPORTING COUNTRIES 

The 1985/86 wheat import forecast for the Soviet Union was increased a million 
tons this month to 18 million as Soviet wheat buying worldwide exceeded 
expectations. The unexpectedly strong buying program has resulted in total 
commitments of nearly 17 million tons as of early March. Most of this wheat 
has been of non-U. S. origin, including about 5 million tons each from Canada 
and the EC, and a record 3 million tons from Australia. U.S. wheat 
commitments to the Soviet Union for the July-February period total less than 
200,000 tons. In 1985/86 (July- June), Soviet wheat purchases from non-U. S. 
origins are expected to total around 17 million tons, second only to last 
year's level of 21 million tons. Another interesting aspect of the higher 
wheat imports has been the continuing purchases of EC and Canadian feed wheat. 

The million-ton decline in world wheat import demand can be attributed to the 
slow pace of purchases in a number of different countries including Nigeria , 
Bangladesh , Pakistan , and Brazil . Expectations for lower new-crop wheat 
prices have probably contributed to the lagging sales to many of these 
countries . 



MAJOR EXPQRTIIMG COUITTRIES 

Export forecasts for the major exporting countries, Canada, Australia, and 
Argentina, remain unchanged; their sales pace has slowed but shipments remain 
strong and on schedule. Australia has apparently sold around 14 million tons 
of wheat, nearly the full amount of the forecast 1985/86 (July- June) marketing 
campaign. In order to meet the 15 . 7-million-ton export forecast, shipments in 
the second half of the 1985/86 marketing year will have to reach record levels. 

In Canada, shipments through the Great Lakes have ceased until the spring 
thaw, but movements from coastal ports continue at an accelerated pace. 
Despite a slow start to the 1985/86 export program the increasing rate of 
shipments will apparently enable Canada to meet the current July- June forecast 
of 17.5 million tons. Canada, like Australia, has been selling feed wheat and 
has recent sales to Korea and Mexico. 



4 



The Argentine wheat harvest has been completed, except for small quantities of 
durum. The lower-than-expected yields in Buenos Aires Province did not change 
the country's production estimate of 8.5 million tons. Shipments in the first 
half of 1985/86 (July- June) reached the second highest level on record, nearly 
2.5 million tons as of the end of December. But the pace of exports should 
begin to decline as availabilities tighten. 

EUROPEAN COMMUNITY 

Total EC wheat and flour export licenses had been running several million tons 
ahead of last year's levels. However, this month, the issuance of licenses 
slowed significantly and there are even rumors that some licenses will be 
canceled. Licenses for August- February are now about equal to the 10.2 
million tons of licenses issued for the same time last year. Flour sales have 
been relatively quiet since early December, partly because of increased 
competition in world flour markets. 

Wheat import licenses continue to lag behind last year's pace, soft wheat by 
some 30 percent and durum licenses by nearly 80 percent. Good durum harvests 
in several EC countries and the continuing re-distribution of large volumes of 
feed and bread-quality wheats may partially explain the low level of import 
licenses . 

U.S. TRADE PROSPECTS 

Sharply lagging sales and shipments as well as continuing market displacement 
by competitor wheat exports resulted in a 700,000-ton decline in the 1985/86 
(July- June) U.S. export forecast of 26 million tons. The current wheat export 
forecast represents the lowest level of U.S. wheat trade in nearly 15 years 
and reflects lagging exports which are nearly 50 percent lower than for the 
same period last year. The 1985/86 forecast of 26 million tons is more than 
30 percent below 1984/85 exports and twice the decline in world wheat trade 
which has dropped approximately 15 percent. Through early March, U.S. sales 
and shipments to the Soviet Union, China, and Bangladesh continue at the 
weakest levels in many years. However, the Export Enhancement Program (EEP) 
has improved the U.S. market position in some North African countries such as 
Algeria. 



**COARSE GRAINS** 

This month, the world coarse grain situation was dominated by lower import 
demand in Mexico and the Soviet Union, and record Argentine corn 
availabilities. World coarse grain trade in 1985/86 is now forecast at 
approximately 92 million tons, down 2.5 million tons from last month. 
Inexpensive feed wheat continues to displace corn and barley in Soviet and 
Mexican livestock rations, decreasing the need for imported coarse grains and 
affecting the forecast for U.S. corn and sorghum exports. The U.S. coarse 
grain outlook is also shadowed by still larger supplies and the aggressive 
marketing of Argentine corn. 



5 



MAJOR LMPORTrsG COUNTRIES 



Forecast coarse grain imports for Mexico declined a million tons this month, 
to 4 million tons, the lowest level in 3 years. A snarp reduction in 
projected foreign exchange earnings due to falling oil prices is taought to 
have caused the recent change in Mexican grain import and use policy. Corn 
and sorghum imports will be reduced by maximizing the feeding of domestic 
wheat supplies and limiting import permits. Sorghum import permits are set at 
about a million tons, down sharply from the 2.5 million tons which Mexico has 
imported in recent years. Ttie decision to minimize com imports will also 
lower the likelinood of a stock buildup. 

Forecast 1985/86 (Oct/Sept) coarse grain imports by the Soviet Union declined 
a million tons to 16 million tons. Soviet buying activity continues to lag 
and purcnases from all origins througn February are estimated at only 10 
million tons. Inexpensive feed wheat has displaced barley in some rations. 
Barley imports for the first 6 months are only 700,000 tons, less than 30 
percent of the 1985/86 import forecast of 2.4 million tons. The Soviet Union 
has purcnased nearly 6 million tons of U.S. corn and less than 100,000 tons 
remains to be shipped as of late February. 



MAJOR EXPORTING COUNTRIES 



Crop prospects for Argentine corn continue to improve this month as the 
estimate rose another 500,000 tons to a record 13 million tons. Back -to-back 
bumper harvests should result in record October /September exports which are 
currently forecast at 9.5 million tons. Argentina has been aggressively 
marketing this large crop and record sales are expected to Mexico, Japan, and 
Brazil. 



EUROPEAN C0>C1UNITY 



The EC's coarse grain import forecast remains unchanged at 3.2 million tons, 
the lowest level in nearly 15 years. Large supplies of feed waeat continue to 
displace imported com and domestic barley in animal rations and in the starch 
industry. Another corn substitute, manioc, has been imported heavily, with 
imports through January reaching 2.2 million tons, compared to 2 million tons 
at the same time last year. The only significant barley exports have been to 
the Soviet Union and East Europe. Generally, however, demand for barley has 
been depressed by tne inexpensive availabilities of feed wheat and record 
supplies of Argentine corn. 



U.S. TRADE PROSPECTS 



The U.S. 1985/86 (October/September) coarse grain export forecast fell more 
than 3 million tons this month to 46 million tons. A 2. 7-fflillion-ton decline 
in U.S. corn exports was the primary reason, but sorghum exports were also 
forecast 700,000 tons lower. A lagging pace of coarse grain purcnases, a 
restrictive import policy in Mexico, and record availabilities of Argentine 
com contributed to the snarply lower com export prospects. U.S. corn sales 
as of early March totaled 24.6 million tons, less than 50 percent of 1984/85 
exports . 



6 



**RICE** 



The forecast for world rice trade in CY1986 was moved up to almost 11.7 
million tons this month, mainly reflecting an increase in expected Italian 
trade. The import forecast for Brazil was again increased this month, as the 
overall world trade outlook for CY1986 continues to improve. The CY1985 world 
trade estimate has also been increased, and now stands at 11.4 million tons. 

Current rice trade activity has been moderate compared with the brisk, pace of 
January and early February, though trade in the high-quality markets is still 
stagnant . 

The 1985/86 world rice production forecast was increased this month to almost 
463 million tons. The change was due mainly to an increase in the estimate 
for India and Bangladesh, which more than offset decreases in the estimates 
for Australia and Malaysia. 

The reader should note that adjustments to CY1986 world trade forecasts, based 
on changes regarding the new U.S. farm legislation have not yet been made this 
calendar year. New CY1986 trade forecasts will not be made until the 
Department of Agriculture announces the 1985 crop loan repayment rate for 
rice, which will be based on foreign export prices. This announcement is 
expected in mid-April. 

Major Importers 

Imports by Brazil are now forecast to reach 800,000 tons in CY1986, as buying 
by that country continues. The Philippines are now expected to import only 
150,000 tons of rice in CY1986. 

Major Exporters 

The export estimate for Australia was decreased to 400,000 tons for CY1985, 
and the 1986 forecast is likewise down to 400,000 tons. The Italian export 
numbers for both years were increased (as well as the import numbers) to 
reflect the increased trade. The pickup in trade has apparently come about 
because of the attractiveness of the import and re-export of rice in the 
climate of falling prices. The practice of pre-fixing the EC levy allows this 
to be a financially beneficial practice for Italian traders. 

U.S. Trade Prospects 

The CY1986 export forecast remains unchanged at 1.8 million tons, although 
this number could change significantly in coming months as the impact of the 
new farm program becomes more certain. 



7 



VJheat and Coarse Grain Yields, Exports and Imports for the 
United Kingdom; I#ieat and Coarse Grain Yields for Spain 
(Supoorting Data for Cover Graphs) 



UNITED KINGDOM SPAIN 

MARKETING NET 

YEAR YIELD EXPORTS EXPORTS IMPORTS YIELD 
MT/HA MTIT MT/HA 



1960 3.12 -9.01 0.18 9.19 n/a 

1961 3.18 -9.06 0.45 9.50 n/a 

1962 3.68 -8.57 0.38 8.95 n/a 

1963 3.48 -8.61 0.22 8.83 n/a 

1964 3.74 -7.99 0.13 8.12 n/a 

1965 3.75 -8.26 0.71 8.98 n/a 

1966 3.54 -7.18 1.12 8.31 n/a 

1967 3.83 -7.17 0.96 8.13 n/a 

1968 3.45 -8.51 0.12 8.63 1.53 

1969 3.67 -8.93 0.04 8.97 1.52 

1970 3.57 -9.10 0.33 9.43 1.37 

1971 3.93 -8.16 0.05 8.21 1.85 

1972 4.08 -8.43 0.18 8.60 1.58 

1973 4.08 -7.25 0.31 7.55 1.56 

1974 4.37 -6.67 0.50 7.17 1.73 

1975 3.82 -7.19 1.23 8.42 1.94 

1976 3.60 -8.68 0.21 8.89 1.73 

1977 4.51 -5.16 2.46 7.62 1.89 

1978 4.53 -5.36 1.15 6.52 2.18 

1979 4.49 -4.12 1.70 5.82 1.87 
198C 4.95 -1.02 3.41 4.44 2.45 

1981 4.93 0.75 4.81 4.07 1.53 

1982 5.44 1.37 4.88 3.50 1.73 

1983 5.38 1.83 4.91 3.08 1.83 

1984 6.59 3.37 5.94 2.57 2.64 

1985 5.57 1.34 5.81 4.48 2.67 

NOTE: United Kingdom grain trade includes trade to 
and from other EC countries. 



TCTAL WHEAT AND COAPSE GRAINS 
TRADE YEARS* 19S1/S2 - 1935/86 
(IN MILLIONS OF METRIC TONS) 



EXPORTS 1) 
SELECTED EXPORTERS 2) 
WEST EUROPE 
USSR 
OTHERS 


19«1 /82 

61.7 
21.2 
3.5 
7.2 


1932/83 

61.3 
2?. 6 
0.5 

10.0 


1 983/*j4 

67.4 
22.3 
0.5 
9.0 


1934/85 

67.7 
29.9 
1.0 
15.7 


1985/66 
FEB1 1 

67.2 
28.2 
1.0 
12.6 


1985/86 
MAR11 

67. 3 
28.2 
1.0 
12.3 


TOTAL NON-US 


90.7 


94.6 


99.3 


114.3 


109.0 


109.4 


U.S. 3) 


107.? 


93.9 


94.7 


93.6 


75.8 


71 .9 


WORLD TOTAL 


197.9 


1 88.3 


193.9 
=========== 


207.9 
================ 


1?4.S 


181 .7 


IMPORTS 
WEST EUROPE 
USSR 
J APAN 

EAST EUROPE 

CHINA 

OTHERS 


23. 0 
39.9 
23.4 
12.4 
14.7 
79.5 


20. 9 
31.2 
24.5 
9.4 
1 5.5 
36.9 


19.2 
32.4 
26.6 
8.0 

97.9 


14.4 
55.4 
26.3 
6.0 
7.5 
98.2 


12.1 
34.0 
26.9 
9.8 
6.8 
95.2 


12.2 
34.0 
26.6 
9.5 
6. 8 
92.2 


WORLD TOTAL 


1 97.9 


1S8.3 


19?. 9 


207.9 


1 34.8 


131.3 


PRODUCTION 4) 5) 
SELECTED EXPORTERS 2) 
WEST EUROPE 
USSR 6) 
EAST EUROPE 
CHINA 
OTHERS 


114.0 
145. 
152.0 
95.1 
140.4 
245.5 


~ ™ *~ 

107.0 
161.9 
172.0 
106.7 
1 50. S 
233.9 


118.3 
1 54. 1 
173.0 
102.5 
174,0 
246.4 


115.0 
191 .1 
1 59.0 
115.1 
183.3 
251.1 


115.6 
176.8 
177.0 
104.6 
169.9 
263 .1 


115.5 
176.9 
177.0 
104.5 
169.9 
261.8 


TOTAL NON-US 


895.8 


932.4 


973.3 


1014.5 


1 006.9 


1005.5 


U.S. 


322.4 


326.0 


203.0 


308.3 


340.3 


340.3 


WORLD TOTAL 


1218.3 


1258.4 


1176.3 


1322.6 


1347.3 


1345.8 

==x ==-=_ 


UTILIZATION 4) 7) 
WEST EUROPE 
USSR 6) 
CHINA 
OTHERS 


159.3 
200.5 
154.8 
489.0 


• — — — • 

1 57.4 
204. 0 
1 66.4 
501.0 


158.4 
206.5 
183.4 
517.1 


161 .7 
207.0 
185.1 
523.9 


1 64.7 
204.0 
171.9 
539.3 


163.1 
2 04. C 
171 .9 
535 .1 


TOTAL NON-US 


1 003.5 


1023.9 


1065.4 


1082.7 


1079.9 


1074.2 


U.S. 


177.8 


1 92.5 


178.1 


195.2 


195.8 


195.3 


WORLD TOTAL 


1181.4 


1 ? ?1 L 




1277.9 


1275.7 


1 270 . 0 


END STOCKS 4) 8) 
TOTAL FOREIGN 9) 
USSR: ST<S CHG 
U.S. 


98.2 
-4.0 
99.8 


96.2 
-1.0 
138.7 


97.9 
3.0 
69.8 


123.4 
6.0 
89.2 


124.2 
6.0 
1 59.9 


124.0 
5.0 
164.5 


WORLD TOTAL 


1 97.9 


234.9 


167.8 


21 2.7 


284.1 


238.5 


*: COMBINATION OF JULY/JUNE TRADE YEARS 


FOR WHEAT 


AND OCTOBER/SEPTEMBER TRADE 


YEARS 





FOR COARSE GRAINS. 

NOTE: FOOTNOTES 1 THROUGH 9 APPEAR ON LAST PAGE OF CIRCULAR. 

SOURCE: PREPARED OR ESTIMATED ON THE BASIS OF OFFICIAL STATISTICS OF F0REI3N GOVERNMENTS/ OTHER 
FOREIGN SOURCE MATERIALS/ REPORTS OF U.S. AGRICULTURAL ATTACHES AND FOREIGN SERVICE OFFICERS/ 
RESULTS OP OFFICE RESEARCH/ AND RELATED INFORMATION. 



COMMODITY PROGRAMS/ FAS/ USDA 



9 



WORLD WHEAT AND WHEAT FLOUP S<4D TA3LE 
JULY/JJNE YFARS 1981/82 - 1985/56 
(IN »<ILLICNS CF METRIC TONS) 





1981 /S2 


1982/83 


1983/34 


1954/85 


1985/86 


1985/86 












r r & 4 ^ 


lAR1 1 


iX'JrTi 1 ) 














CANADA 


17.6 


21 .4 


21 .3 


19.4 


17.5 


17.5 


AUSTRALIA 


11.0 


8.1 


10.6 


15.3 


15.7 


15.7 


ARGENTINA 


A. 3 


7.5 


9. 7 


8.C 


6.1 


6.1 


SUBTOTAL 


32.9 


37.0 


42. C 


42.7 


39.3 


39.3 


EC-10 


15.5 


15.6 


15.4 


17.5 


17.5 


17.5 


USSR 


0. 5 


0.5 


0.5 


1 .0 


1.0 


1 .C 


OTHERS 


3.6 


5. 6 


5. ? 


7,1 


5.5 


5.2 


TOTAL NON-US 


52.5 


58.7 


63.1 


63.3 


63.3 


63 .0 


U.S. 3) 


45.8 


39.9 


36.9 


38.1 


26.7 


26.0 



WORLD TOTAL 101.3 93. 6 1C2.0 106.4 90.0 89.0 



IMPORTS 



EC-10 


4.7 


3.9 


3.6 


2.2 


2.2 


2.2 


USSR 


19.5 


2C.2 


20. 5 


28. 1 


17.0 


16.0 


J A»AN 


5.6 


5.8 


5.9 


5.6 


5.4 


5.4 


EAST EURO?E 


6 . 2 


4.5 


3.8 


2.6 


4.0 


3.7 


CHINA 


13.2 


13.0 


9.6 


7.4 


6.5 


6.5 


OTHERS 


5 2.1 


51.2 


5 8.7 


6C . 5 


54.9 


53.2 


WORLD 'OTAL 


101.3 


98.6 


1 u 2 . J 


106.4 


90.0 


89 . 0 


RODUCTION 5) 














CANADA 


24. S 


26. 7 


26. 5 


21.2 


23.9 


23.9 


AUSTRALIA 


16.4 


8.9 


22.0 


13.3 


16.5 


16.5 


ARGENTINA 


8.3 


15.0 


12.3 


13.2 


8 . 5 


8 . 5 


EC-10 


54.4 


59.8 


59.2 


76.6 


66.1 


66.1 


USS" 6 ) 


80.0 


86.0 


79.0 


73.0 


83.0 


83 . 


EAST EUROPE 


30.6 


34.7 


35.4 


42.1 


37.4 


37.4 


CHINA 


59.6 


68.4 


81 .4 


87.8 


86.0 


86.0 


INDIA 


36.3 


37.5 


4?. 3 


45.5 


44.2 


44.2 


OTHERS 


6 2.2 


66.9 


66. 0 


66.4 


71 . 8 


71 .6 


TOTAL NON-US 


372.6 


403. « 


425.1 


444.0 


437.4 


437 .2 


U.S. 


75.8 


^5.3 


65.9 


70.6 


66.0 


66. 0 


WORLD TOTAL 


44«.A 


4^9.1 


490. 9 


514.6 


503 .4 


503.2 


ITILIZATION 7) 














U.S. 


23.1 


24.7 


30.2 


31 .4 


29.3 


29.3 


USSR 6) 


102.0 


105.7 


97.0 


96.1 


95.0 


96.0 


CHINA 


72.8 


51 .4 


91 .0 


95.2 


92.5 


92.5 


OTHERS 


243.7 


256.1 


268 .1 


276.9 


276 .7 


272 .6 


TOTAL NON-US 


41 S. 5 


443.2 


456.1 


468. 2 


464.2 


461.1 


WORLD TOTAL 


441 .5 


467.9 


486.3 


499.6 


493.5 


490.4 


;ND STOCKS 8) 














TOTAL FOREIGN 9) 


53.5 


55.0 


■62.9 


77.7 


75.7 


77.5 


USSR: STKS CHG 


-3.0 


0.0 


2.0 


4.0 


4.0 


4.0 


U.S. 


31 .5 


41 . 2 


38.1 


38.8 


50.0 


51.4 


WORLD TOTAL 


35.0 


96.3 


101.0 


116.0 


125.7 


1 28.9 

















NOTE: FOOTNOTES 1 THROUGH 9 APPEAR ON LAST PAGE CF CIRCULAR. 

SOJRCE: PREPARED OR ESTIMATED ON TM^ 3ASIS OF OFFICIAL STftTISTICS OF FOREIGN GOVERNMENTS/ OTHER 
FOREIGN SOURCE MATERIALS/ REPORTS OF U.S. AGRICULTURAL ATTACHES AND FOREIGN SERVICE OFFICERS/ 
RESULTS OF OFFICE RESEARCH/ AND RELATED INFORMATION. 

CO'IMODITY PROGRAMS/ FAS/ USDA 



10 



WORLD COARSE GRAINS SSD TABLE 
0CT09ER/SEPTE^'3ER YEARS 1 981 /82 - 1 985/86 
(IN MILLIONS OF METRIC TONS) 



1 y ^ 1 / 8 C 


1 98 u / 0 3 


1 V S 3 / 04 


19 84/85 


1985/86 


1^85/86 










FES11 


KAR11 


7.2 


7.1 


5.5 


3.3 


5.3 


5.8 


3.1 


1.0 


5.6 


7.1 


6.0 


6.0 


10.3 


11.6 


10.9 


1C.6 


11.3 


11.9 


4.7 


2.3 


0.1 


C . 5 


1.0 


1 . 0 


3.5 


2.3 


3.4 


3.5 


3.8 


3.3 


28.8 


24.3 


25.4 


2 5. C 


27.9 


28.5 


4.7 


5.2 


5.4 


1C.5 


9. 5 


9.5 


0.2 


0.1 


0.5 


5.7 


4.7 


4.7 


4.4 


6. 2 


5.0 


4.8 


3.6 


3.7 


38.2 


35.9 


36. 2 


46. C 


45.7 


46.4 


53.4 


54.0 


55.3 


55.5 


49.1 


45.9 


96.6 


39.9 


92,0 


101.5 


94.8 


92.3 


?1 . 0 


1^.6 


13.9 


A Q 
1 J . 9 


S . 3 


9 1 

8.3 


20.4 


11.0 


11.9 


27.3 


17.0 


16.0 


17.9 


18.7 


20.7 


20.7 


?1 .5 


21 .2 


6.1 


4.9 


4.2 


3.4 


5.8 


5.8 


1.5 


2.5 


0.2 


C.1 


0.3 


0.3 


29.7 


37.1 


41 .1 


39.1 


41 .9 


40.7 


96.6 


89.9 


92.0 


101.5 


94.8 


92.3 


26.0 


26.5 


20.9 


22.0 


24.5 


24.5 


6.7 


3.9 


9.4 


8.5 


8.7 


8.6 


I O m H 


11.3 


17 L 
1 1 . H 


1 $5 A 


19 r\ 


19 


8.8 


4.5 


5.1 


8.5 


9.9 


9.5 




J . f 




t* m f 


J mO 




87.9 


93.6 


86.1 


103.7 


101 .0 


101 .0 


( C m \J 


5 0 . U 


y T . 'J 


8 0 . J 


y ^ . u 


y H . u 


64.5 


72. C 


67.1 


73.0 


67.1 


67.1 


ft O 9 




y c . 0 


y 5 . H 


fit o 


0 3 • y 


153.6 


1 38.1 


146.4 


1 5C.0 


1 56.3 


155.7 


523.3 


528.5 


548.3 


570.5 


569.5 


56S.3 


246.6 


250.7 


137.1 


237.7 


274.3 


274. 3 


769.9 


779.2 


685.4 


808 .2 


343.8 


842.7 


154.8 


1 67.9 


147.8 


163.8 


166.6 


166.6 


98.5 


93. 3 


109.5 


110.9 


109.0 


108.0 


81 .9 


85.0 


92.4 


89.9 


79.4 


79.4 


404.6 


402.4 


407.5 


413.8 


427.2 


425.6 


58 5.0 


585.7 


609. 4 


614.6 


615.7 


613.1 


739.8 
============ 


753.5 
=========== 


757.2 
============== 


778.4 


782.3 


779.6 
======== 


44.7 


41 .1 


3 5.0 


46.2 


45.5 


46.5 


-1.0 


-1.0 


1.0 


2.0 


2.0 


1.0 


68.2 


97.5 


31 .8 


50.5 


1 09.9 


113.1 


112.9 


138.6 


66.8 


96.6 


1 58.4 


1 59.6 


1 ^ APPEAR ON 


LAST PAGE 


OF CIRCULAR. 









EXPORTS 
CANADA 
AUSTRALIA 
ARGENTINA 
SOUTH AF.^ICA 
THAILAND 

SUBTOTAL 

WEST EUROPE 
CHINA 
OTHERS 

TOTAL NON-U. S. 
U.S. 3) 

WORLD TOTAL 

IMPORTS 
WEST EUROPE 
USSR 
J APAN 

EAST EUROPE 
CHINA 
OTHERS 

WORLD TOTAL 

PRODUCTION 5) 
CANADA 
AUSTRALIA 
ARGENTINA 
SOUTH AFRICA 
THAILAND 
WEST EUROPE 
USSR 6) 
EAST EUROPE 
CHINA 
OTHERS 

TOTAL NON-U. S. 
U.S. 

WORLD TOTAL 

UTILIZATION 7) 
U.S. 
USSR 6) 
CHINA 
OTHERS 

TOTAL NON-U. $. 

WORLD TOTAL 

END STOCKS 8) 
TOTAL FOREIGN 9) 
USSR: STKS CHG 
U.S. 

WORLD TOTAL 

NOTE: FOOTNOTES 1 THROUGH 

SOURCE: PREPARED OR ESTIMATED ON THE BASIS OF OFFICIAL STATISTICS OF FOREIGN GOVE RNMENTSr OTHER 
FOREIGN SOURCE MATERIALS/- REPORTS OF U.S. AGRICULTURAL ATTACHES AND FOREIGN SERVICE OFFICERS/ 
RESULTS OF OFFICE RESEARCH/ AND RELATED INFORMATION. 



COMMODITY PROGRAMS/ FAS/ USDA 



11 



WORLD RICE S5D TABLE 
TRADE/ PRODUCTION/ UTILIZATION AND STOCKS 1) 
(IN MILLIONS OF METRIC TONS) 



CAL YR CAL YR CAL YR CAL YR CAL 1986 CAL 1986 

1932 1983 1984 1985 FE811 MAR11 

EXPORTS 2) 



fJUR^IA 


0.7 


0.8 


0.7 


0.4 


0.5 


0.5 


CHINA 


0.5 


0.6 


1.2 


1.0 


0.9 


0.9 


J A" AN 


0.3 


0.3 


0.1 


0.0 


0.0 


0.0 


PA<I STAN 


0.8 


1.3 


1.0 


1.0 


0.9 


0.9 


THAILAND 


3.6 


3.7 


4.5 


4.0 


4.3 


4.3 


OTHERS 


3.4 


2.9 


2.9 


3.1 


3.1 


3.3 


TOTAL NON-US 
U.S. 

<<ORLD TOTAL 


9.3 


9.6 


10. 4 


9.5 


9.7 


9.9 


2. 5 


2.3 


2.1 


1 .9 


1 .8 


1.8 


11.8 


11.9 


12.6 


11.4 


11.5 


11.7 



IMPORTS 2) 



EC-10 


1 . 2 


1 . 0 


1 .1 


1 .1 


1.0 


1 . 2 


INDONESIA 


0.3 


1 . 2 


0.4 


0.0 


0.0 


0.0 


IRAN 


0.6 


0.7 


0.7 


0.6 


0.8 


0.8 


IRAQ 


0.4 


0.5 


0.5 


0.5 


0.5 


0 . 5 


KOREA/ REP. 


0.2 


0.2 


0.0 


0.0 


0.0 


0.0 


NIGERIA 


0.7 


0.7 


0.4 


0. 5 


0.5 


0.5 


SA'JDI ARA3IA 


0.5 


0.5 


0.5 


0.5 


0.5 


0.5 


OTHERS 


8.0 


7.2 


8.9 


8.2 


8.1 


8 . 1 


WORLD TOTAL 


11.8 


11.9 


12.6 


11.4 


11.5 


11.7 




1 981 /S2 


1 982/33 


1983/34 


1964/85 


1 985/86 


1 985/86 


PRODUCTION 3) 






t 








AR3ENTINA 


0.4 


0. 3 


0.5 


0.4 


0.4 


0.4 


AUSTRALIA 


0.9 


0. 5 


0 . 6 


0. 9 


0.8 


0.7 


3ANGLADESH 


20.5 


21 . 3 


21 . 8 


21 .9 


22.5 


23.1 


BRAZIL 


9.2 


7.8 


9.0 


9.0 


8.8 


8.8 


SUR*^ A 


14.1 


14.4 


14.4 


14.8 


14.5 


14.5 


CHINA 


144.0 


161 .2 


168.9 


178.3 


167.0 


167.0 


EC-10 


1 . 1 


1 . 1 


1 . 1 


1 . 1 


1 .2 


1 . ? 


INDIA 


80. C 


70.7 


90. 2 


88.0 


90.0 


91.5 


INDONESIA 


32.8 


33.6 


35.3 


38.0 


3».7 


38.7 


JAPAN 


12.? 


12.8 


13.0 


14.8 


14.6 


14.6 


KOREA/ REP. 


7.1 


7.3 


7.6 


8.0 


7.9 


7.9 


PAKISTAN 


5.1 


5.2 


5.C 


5.2 


4.8 


4.? 


THAILAND 


17.8 


16.9 


19.5 


18.7 


19.8 


19.8 


OTH ERS 


58.3 


59.4 


61.4 


62.7 


63.9 


63. 8 


TOTAL NON-US 


404. 4 


412.6 


446. 2 


461.7 


454.8 


456. 8 


U.S. 


8.3 


7.0 


4.5 


6.3 


6.2 


6.2 


WORLD TOTAL 


412.7 


419.5 


452.7 


468.0 


461 .0 


462.9 


UTILIZATION 7) 














BANGLADESH 


14.1 


14.6 


14.9 


14.9 


15.4 


15.8 


CHINA 


100.5 


112.4 


117.1 


123.9 


116.1 


116.1 


INDIA 


54.1 


43.5 


58.2 


57.0 


59.3 


60.3 


INDONESIA 


22.3 


23.7 


25.3 


25.1 


26.0 


26.0 


KOREA/ REP. 


5.4 


5.3 


5.5 


5.5 


5.6 


5.6 


OTHERS 


82.8 


83.2 


85.2 


85.7 


87.9 


87.6 


TOTAL NON-US 


279.2 


237.6 


306.3 


312.1 


310.4 


311.4 


U.S. 


2.2 


2.C 


1 . a 


1.9 


1 .9 


1.9 


WORLD TOTAL 


281 .5 


289.6 


303.1 


314.0 


312.2 


313.3 


END STOCKS 4) 














OANGLADESH 


0.3 


0.3 


0.1 


0.5 


0.3 


0.3 


INDIA 


5.0 


3.5 


6.0 


7.5 


S.C 


8.0 


INDONESIA 


2.3 


1.8 


1.6 


2.8 


2.7 


2.7 


KOREA/ REP. 


1.4 


1.5 


1 .3 


1.4 


1.5 


1.5 


THAILAND 


1.3 


0.3 


1.1 


1.3 


1 .7 


1.7 


OTHERS 


9.3 


7.2 


5.7 


6.5 


6.4 


6.8 


TOTAL FOREIGN 


19.7 


1 5.0 


15.8 


19.9 


20.6 


20.9 


U.S. 


1.6 


2.3 


1 . 5 


2.1 


2.8 


2.8 


WORLD TOTAL 


21.3 


17.3 


17.3 


22.0 


23.4 


23.7 


1) PRODUCTION IS ON ROUGH 


3ASIS; TRADE/ 


UTILIZATION 


AND STOCKS 


ARE ON WILLED 


BASIS. 





2) TRADE DATA ON CALENDAR YEAR BASIS. 



3) THE WO^LO RICE HARVEST STRETCHES OVER 6-3 ^l0NTHS. THUS/ 1973/7<' PRODUCTION REPRESENTS THE CROP 
HARVESTED IN LATE 1978 AND EARLY 197? IN THE NORTHERN HEf^ISPHFRE AND THE CROP HARVESTED IN 
EARLY 197' IN THE SOUTHERN HEMiSPHERil. 

4) STOCKS DATA ARE 3ASE0 ON AN AGGREGATE OF DIFFERENT LOCAL lARKE'^ING YEARS AND SHOULD 

NOT ?E CONSTRUED AS REPRESENTING WORLD STOCK LEVELS AT A FIXED POINT IN TL^E. STOCKS DATA 
ARE NOT AVAILABLE FOP ALL COUNTRIES A^'D EXCLUDE THOSE SUCH AS NORTH KOREA AND CHINA. 

SOURCE: PREP*=ED tiR ESTIMATED ON THE 3ASIS OF OFFICIAL STATISTICS OF FOREIGN GOVERNMENTS/ OTHER 
FOREIGN SOURCE 1ATERIALS/ REPORTS OF U.S. AGPICULTURAL ATTACHES AND FOREIGN SERVICE OFFICERS/ 
RESULTS OF OFFICE RESEARCH/ AND RELATED I N FO Pl^ AT ION . 

C0H10DITY PROGRAMS/ FAS/ USDA 



12 



WORLD CORN SSD TABLE 
OCTOBER/SEPTEMBER YEARS 1981/82 - 1985/86 
(IN MILLIONS OF METRIC TONS) 



1981 /82 


1982/33 


1983/84 


1984/85 


1 985/86 


1 985/86 










FEB11 


MAR11 


4.9 


6.5 


5.9 


7.1 


8.9 


9.5 


4.7 


2.3 


0.1 


0.3 


0.9 


0.9 


3.3 


2.1 


3.0 


3.2 


3.5 


3.5 


0.1 


0.0 


0. 4 


5.2 


4 . 2 


4 . 2 


4.3 


5.0 


3.7 


4.0 


4.2 


3.3 


17.3 


15.9 


13.1 


19.7 


21 .7 


21 .4 


50.0 


47. 5 


47. 4 


46.7 


41 .3 


38.7 


67.3 


63.4 


60. 5 


66.4 


62.9 


60. 2 


0.6 


4.0 


2 . 5 


1.7 


3.0 


2.7 


7.6 


5 . 3 


4.3 


3.9 


3.0 


3.0 


13.4 


6. 5 


9. 5 


20.3 


12.1 


12.0 


13.3 


14.5 


14.5 


14.0 


15.0 


15.0 


4.8 


3.3 


1.9 


1.5 


2.5 


2.5 


1 .2 


2.4 


0.1 


0.1 


0.1 


0.2 


2.6 


3.2 


3.0 


3.1 


3.2 


3.2 


2.8 


3.9 


3.3 


3.1 


3.5 


3.5 


5.6 


4.0 


3.5 


3.5 


2.5 


2.5 


2.2 


2.2 


2.1 


1 . 8 


1 .2 


1 . 2 


13.3 


14.1 


15.9 


13.6 


16.8 


14.4 


67.3 


63.4 


60. 5 


66.4 


62.9 


60. 2 


22.9 


19.5 


21.0 


22.0 


19.0 


19.0 


12,5 


7.0 


9.3 


9.9 


10.0 


10.0 


9.6 


9.0 


9.2 


11.5 


12.5 


13.0 


8.4 


4.1 


4.4 


7.5 


9.0 


8.5 


4.3 


3.4 


3.9 


4.3 


5.1 


5 . 1 


18.4 


19.8 


19.6 


20.2 


21.8 


21.6 


8.0 


13.5 


12.0 


12.5 


12.5 


12.5 


32.2 


36.5 


33.4 


35.7 


31.9 


31 .8 


59.2 


60.3 


68.2 


73.4 


64.0 


64.0 


57.7 


56.4 


58.9 


65.2 


67. 8 


67. 3 


233.2 


229.5 


239.9 


262.4 


253.7 


252.9 


206.2 


209.2 


1 06. 0 


1 94.9 


225 .2 


225.2 


439. 5 


433.7 


346.0 


457.3 


478.9 


478 . 1 


39.7 


37.2 


35.0 


32.7 


33.8 


33.2 


25.3 


19.8 


20.7 


32.8 


24.6 


23.6 


13.6 


14.2 


14.5 


14.1 


14.3 


14.3 


60.2 


62.8 


67.9 


68.3 


59.9 


60.0 


146.9 


1 47. 2 


1 51 . 5 


1 56.8 


1 61 .2 


159.9 


285.6 


281 .3 


289.6 


304.8 


293.8 


291 .0 


127.3 


137.7 


119.6 


131.6 


132.6 


132.6 


413.0 


41 9. 0 


409. 3 


436.4 


426.4 


423.6 


21.6 


17.3 


14.5 


19.0 


20.2 


19.6 


55.2 


79.3 


18.4 


35.1 


86.4 


5^9.0 


76. S 


yo. . 


33.2 


54.1 


106.6 


108.6 


9 APPEAR 


ON LAST PAGE OF 


CIRCULAR. 









EXPORTS 
ARGENTINA 
SOUTH AFRICA 
THAILAND 
CHINA 
OTHERS 

TOTAL NON-U. S. 
U.S. 3) 

WORLD TOTAL 

IMPORTS 
MEXICO 
EC-1 0 
USSR 
JAPAN 

EAST EUROPE 
CHINA 
TAIWAN 
KOREA/ REP. 
SPAIN 
PORTUGAL 
OTHERS 

WORLD TOTAL 

PRODUCTION 5) 
BRAZIL 
MEXICO 
ARGENTINA 
SOUTH AFRICA 
THAILAND 
EC-10 
USSR 6) 
EAST EUROPE 
CHINA 
OTHERS 

TOTAL NON-U. S. 
U.S. 

•JORLD TOTAL 

UTILIZATION 7) 
WEST EUROPE 
USSR 6) 
JAPAN 
CHINA 
OTHERS 

TOTAL NON-U. S. 
U.S. 

WORLD TOTAL 

END STOCKS 8) 
TOTAL FOREIGN 9) 
U.S. 

WOi^LD TOTAL 

NOTE: FOOTNOTES 1 THROUGH 

SOURCE: PREPARED OP ESTIMATED ON THE BASIS OF OFFICIAL STATISTICS OF FOREIGN GOVERNMENTS/ OTHER 
FOREIGN SOURCE MATERIALS/ REPORTS OF U.S. AGRICULTURAL ATTACHES AND FOREIGN SERVICE OFFICERS/ 
RESULTS OF OFFICE RESEARCH/ AND RELATED INFORMATION. 



COMMODITY PROGRAMS/ FAS/ U3DA 



13 



WOPLO SORGHUM S8D TABLE 
OCTOBER/SEPTEMBER YEARS 1961/82 - 1985/86 
(IN MILLIONS OF ffETRIC TONS) 





19S1 /?2 


1982/33 


1 983/84 


1 964/85 


1985/86 


1085/86 












FE611 


MAR1 1 


EXPORTS 














AUSTRALIA 


1.2 


0.3 


1.4 


1.2 


1.1 


1.1 


ARGENTINA 


5.2 


4.9 


4.8 


3.4 


2 . 2 


2.2 


OTHERS 


0.9 


1 .0 


0.7 


1.2 


1 .4 


1.3 


TOTAL NON-U. S. 


7.4 


6.2 


7.0 


5 . 8 


4.7 


4.6 


U.S. 


6.3 


5.4 


6.2 


7.6 




6.3 


WORLD "^OTAL 


13.7 


11.6 


13.2 


13.4 


11.7 


11.0 












— ~ — — — — — — ■- — — - 




IMPORTS 














USSR 


2.9 


2.3 


1.9 


1.5 


1 . 5 


1 . 3 


JAPAN 


3.0 


2.7 


4.2 


4.6 


4.6 


4.3 


E X I C 0 


0.9 


3.2 


3.3 


2.5 


2 . 0 


1 . 3 


VENEZUELA 


0.9 


0.4 


0.2 


1 .0 


1 . 2 


1 . 2 


TAIWAN 


0.3 


0.6 


0.6 


0.5 


0.6 


0.6 


KOREA/ REP. 


0.4 


0.2 


0.4 


0.3 


0.3 


0.3 


SPAIN 


1.5 


0.3 


0.3 


0.2 


0.2 


0.2 


PORTUGAL 


0. 


0 . 2 


0 . 1 


0 . 0 


0.0 


0.0 


SAUDI ARA3IA 


0.9 


0.6 


0 . 3 


0.2 


0.3 


0.3 


IS'^AEL 


0.4 


0.3 


0 . 6 


0.5 


0.5 


0.5 


OTHERS 


1.8 


0.7 


0 . 8 


1 . 9 


0.4 


0. ? 


WORLD TOTAL 


13.7 


11.6 


13.2 


13.4 


11.7 


11.0 


PRODUCTION 5) 










— "■ — — — —— — 


:=======s=3= 


AUSTRALIA 


1.3 


1 ■ 0 


A C\ 

1.9 


A ^ 

1.3 


A Q 

1.3 


1.6 


ARGENTINA 


8.0 


7.6 


7.2 


C ft 

5.9 


4. 5 


4.5 


SOUTH AFRICA 


0.3 


0.2 


0. 5 


0.6 


0.6 


0.6 


THAILAND 


0.3 


0. 1 


0.3 


0.4 


0.4 


C.4 


MEXICO 


4.0 


z.s 


4.0 


4.1 


4.1 


4.1 


INDIA 


12.1 


10.8 


11.9 


11.3 


10.5 


10.5 


CHINA 


6.6 


7.0 


8.4 


7.7 


6.5 


6.5 


NIGERIA 


3.7 


4.1 


2.7 


3.7 


4.0 


4.0 


SUDAN 


3.3 


1 .9 


1.8 


1.2 


4.5 


4.5 


OTHERS 


8.4 


8.3 


7.9 


7.8 


8.8 


8.7 


TOTAL NON-U. 3. 


48.0 


43.9 


46.5 


44 .0 


45.7 


45 . 4 


U.S. 


22 . 2 


21 . 2 


12.4 


22.0 


28.3 


28.3 


WORLD TOTAL 


70.3 


65.1 


58.9 


66.0 


74.0 


73.7 


UTILIZATION 7) 














U.S. 


11.2 


13.1 


9.9 


13.9 


15.1 


15.1 


USSR 


3.4 


2.9 


2.0 


1.5 


1.5 


1.3 


CHINA 


6.6 


6.9 


8.3 


7.2 


6.0 


6.0 


MEXICO 


6.8 


6.1 


6. 3 


6.4 


6.5 


6.2 


JAPAN 


3.6 


2.8 


3.7 


4.7 


4.6 


4.6 


OTHERS 


34.5 


31 .9 


31 .8 


32.3 


33.3 


33.4 


WORLD TOTAL 


66.0 


63 . 8 


62 . 0 


66.0 


67.1 


66.6 


cND STOCsS 8) 














TOTAL FOREIGN 


4.8 


3.4 


4.1 


3.5 


4.3 


3.8 


U.S. 


7.5 


10.2 


6.4 


6.9 


13.0 


13.7 


WORLD TOTAL 


12.3 


13.6 


10.4 


10.4 


17.3 


17.4 














:SSSSSSS33SX 


NOTE: FOOTNOTES 1 


THROUGH 9 APPEAR ON 


LAST PAGE 


OF CIRCULAR. 









SOURCE: PREPARED OR ESTIMATED ON ^he BASIS OF OFFICIAL STATISTICS OP FOREIGN GOVERNMENTS/ OTHER 
FOREIGN SOURCE MATERIALS/ REPORTS OF U.S. AGRICULTURAL ATTACHES AND FOREIGN SERVICF OFFICERS/ 
RESULTS OF OFFICE RESEARCH/ AND RELATED INFORMATION. 

COM10DITY PROGRAMS/ FAS/ USDA 



14 



WORLD 'PARLEY S?D TA9LE 
OCTOBER/SEPTE'^BER YEARS 1 981 /82 - 1 985/86 
(IN ^'ILLICNS OF METRIC TONS) 



EXPORTS 
CANADA 
AUSTRALIA 
EC-1 0 
OTHERS 


1931/82 

5.5 
1.7 
3.5 
1.3 


1982/33 

6.1 
0.6 
3.9 
1.9 


1 933/34 

4.2 
3.7 
3. 8 
1.5 


1934/85 

2.5 
5.3 
7.2 
2.7 


1985/86 
F E Bl 1 

4.5 
4.5 
6.5 
2.8 


1 985/86 
MA R1 1 

4.5 
4.5 
6.5 
2.9 


TOTAL NON-U. S. 


12.0 


12.5 


1 3.3 


17.6 


18.3 


18.4 


U.S. 


2.0 


1.0 


2.1 


1.2 


0.8 


0.8 


WORLD TOTAL 


14.1 


13.4 


15.4 


18.8 


19.1 


19.1 


IMPORTS 
EC-10 
USSR 
JAPAN 

EAST EUROPE 
SAUDI ARA3IA 
SPAIN 
OTHERS 


0.6 
3.6 
1.5 
1.2 
3.4 
0.7 
3.1 


0.2 
2. 2 
1.3 
1 .5 
2.5 
1.6 
4.1 


0.5 
0.5 
1.6 
2.0 
5.1 
0.2 
5.4 


0.1 
4.7 
1.7 
1.7 
5.4 
0.0 
5.2 


0.1 
3.0 
1.5 
3.1 
5.5 
0.0 
5.8 


0.1 
2.4 
1.5 
3.1 
5.5 
0.0 
6.4 


WORLD TOTAL 


14.1 


13.4 


15.4 


16. S 


19.1 


19.1 


PRODUCTION 5) 
CANADA 
AUSTRALIA 
EC-10 
USSR 
CHINA 

EAST EUROPE 
OTHERS 


13.7 
3.4 
'9.3 
37.5 
7.5 
16.0 
29.2 


14.0 
1.9 
41.3 
41.0 
6.9 
17.4 
30.9 


10.2 
4.9 
36.1 
54.0 
6.9 
15.4 
30.3 


10.3 
5.6 
44.4 
42.1 
5.6 
17.1 
34.4 


12.3 
5.0 
40.6 
48. ? 

5.2 
16.7 
36.5 


12.3 
5.0 
40.6 
48.2 
5.2 
16.8 
36.1 


TOTAL NON-U. S. 


146.7 


153.5 


157.8 


159.5 


164.5 


164.1 


U.S. 


10.3 


11.2 


11.1 


13.0 


12.8 


12.8 


WORLD TOTAL 


157.0 


164.7 


168.9 


172.5 


177.3 


170.9 


UTILIZATION 7) 
WEST EUROPE 
USSR 

EAST EUROPE 
OTHERS 


43.3 
42.5 
17.0 
40.9 


49.5 
44.0 
17.8 
41.7 


49.1 
53.8 
16.8 
44.8 


50.1 
44.5 
18.3 
41.4 


50.4 
50.2 
1 9.5 
44.1 


50.2 
50. 5 
10.5 
44.6 


TOTAL NON-U. S. 


149.1 


1 53.0 


164.5 


154.3 


164.2 


1 64. 7 


U.S. 


3.1 


8.9 


9.8 


10.3 


10.2 


10.2 


WORLD TOTAL 


157.2 


162.0 


174. 3 


1 64.6 


1 74.4 


175.0 


END STOCKS 8) 
TOTAL FOREISN 
U.S. 


13.7 
3.2 


15.0 
4.7 


10.2 
4.1 


16.8 
5.4 


17.5 
7.6 


16.6 
7.6 


WORLD TOTAL 


17.0 


19.7 


14.3 


22.2 


25.1 


24.2 


NOTE: FOOTNOTES 1 


THROUGH 9 APPEAR ON 


LAST PAGE OF 


CIRCULAR. 









SOURCE: PREPARED OR ESTIMATED ON THE BASIS OF OFFICIAL STATISTICS OF FOREIGN GOVERNMENTS/ OTHER 
FOREIGN SOURCE MATERIALS/ REPORTS OF U.S. AGRICULTURAL ATTACHES AND FOREIGN SERVICE OFFICERS/ 
RESULTS OF OFFICE RESEARCH/ AND RELATED INFORMATION. 



COfiMODITY PROGRAMS/ FAS/ USDA. 



15 







WORLD yHEAT 


AND FLOUR 


TRADE 










JULY/JUNE YEARS 1981/82 


- 1985/86 










(IN THOUSANDS 


OF f*ETRIC 


TOSS) 








1981/82 


1952/83 


1 983/84 


1984/85 


1985/66 


1965/86 












FEB1 1 


l*AR1 1 


iX^ORTS 














UNITED STATES 


48776 


39939 


38360 


38092 


26700 


26000 


CANADA 


17618 


21368 


21765 


1 9400 


1 7500 


17500 


ARGENTINA 


4305 


7501 


9661 


8034 


61 00 


6100 


AUSTRALIA 


10983 


8131 


10586 


1 5265 


1 5700 


1 5703 


EC-10 


1 5500 


1 5600 


1 5400 


1^500 


1 7500 


1 7500 


0. W. EUROPE 


971 


1 806 


1525 


1 850 


1 1 85 


1185 


EAST EURC»E 


195C 


2370 


2255 


41 00 


2625 


262 5 


USSR 


500 


500 


500 


1000 


1 000 


1000 


TUR< EY 


337 


573 


600 


517 


400 


400 


OTHE= COUNTRIES 


364 


856 


81 8 


647 


1290 


950 


WORLD TOTAL 


1 CI 3C4 


98644 
===ss=======s=s== 


101970 


1 C6405 


90000 


38960 


■^^ORTS 














EC-1 3 


4675 


3950 


3600 


2200 


2200 


2200 


0. W. EUROPE 


231 6 


1301 


1764 


1361 


1620 


1 '520 


EAST EUROPE 


62C5 


4523 


3757 


2602 


4000 


3700 


J AOAN 


5577 


5795 


5857 


5603 


5400 


5403 


CHISA 


13200 


13000 


9600 


7400 


6500 


6500 


USSP 


1 9500 


20200 


20500 


28100 


1 7000 


1 8CC0 


E5YPT 


5 800 


5350 


671 2 


6600 


6700 


67 0 0 


ALGERIA 


2294 


2 548 


2540 


2500 


2500 


2 500 


^•.OROCCO 


2223 


1 331 


2128 


245 4 


2300 


23C3 


M3E»IA 


1550 


1 500 


160 0 


1750 


1700 


1 500 


TUNI SI A 


626 


695 


1035 


S58 


450 


500 


LIBYA 


529 


449 


380 


400 


400 


400 


SUDAN 


363 


448 


450 


600 


665 


665 


MEXICO 


900 


5C 


566 


488 


300 


300 


3RAZIL 


4470 


3600 


3048 


5400 


3100 


3000 


CHILE 


950 


108 0 


1031 


750 


600 


600 


PERU 


961 


1006 


970 


863 


950 


950 


VENEZUELA 


830 


326 


025 


1028 


1000 


1003 


ECJA009 


31 2 


325 


353 


360 


380 


380 


3CLIVIA 


1 51 


202 


250 


260 


270 


2 70 


CUBA 


1500 


110 0 


1300 


1 300 


1300 


1300 


COLOMBIA 


555 


574 


650 


600 


600 


600 


ISRAEL 


45 0 


625 


500 


700 


600 


600 


J ORD AS 


310 


335 


335 


384 


390 


393 


LEBANON 


345 


373 


373 


375 


375 


375 


SAUDI ARABIA 


682 


700 


336 


300 


100 


100 


SYRIA 


294 


430 


935 


1230 


903 


900 


YE'^ES/ AR 


450 


450 


600 


575 


600 


600 


IRAN 


1377 


1 405 


3700 


3200 


2800 


2800 


IRAQ 


1600 


1300 


3000 


3000 


270C 


270C 


MALAYSIA 


544 


541 


602 


640 


650 


645 


VIETNA"* 


566 


600 


600 


600 


600 


600 


BANGLADESH 


1111 


1 500 


1876 


1 S93 


1600 


1400 


INDONESIA 


1529 


1435 


1587 


1 375 


1500 


1 500 


3AKIS"^AN 


400 


550 


366 


1 C36 


1700 


16 00 


TURKEY 


748 


50 


350 


1043 


1000 


1 000 


INDIA 


2265 


370G 


2500 


150 


100 


100 


SRI LAN<A 


529 


474 


648 


650 


583 


530 


KOREA, RE». 


1 868 


1 830 


23 51 


31 35 


2700 


27C0 


PiILI^PINES 


860 


925 


693 


785 


700 


725 


TAIWAN 


673 


737 


655 


780 


750 


750 


KOREA/ DP= 


398 


200 


500 


550 


500 


500 


SINGAPORE 


180 


200 


200 


200 


2C0 


200 


SUBTOTAL 


926^1 


38c43 


92900 


06438 


80983 


S11 50 


OTHER COUNTTES 


5316 


5102 


6077 


7128 


6568 


6688 






4699 


2993 


^ o J y 




112 2 


i(ORLD TOTAL 


1 :i 3:4 


95644 


1 01970 


1 C6405 


90000 


88963 

















1) THIS REPRESENTS EXPORTS NOT ACCOUNTED ^OR IN REPORTS FPC1 I'*oCRTIN3 COUNTRIES. SINCE THIS 
13 ^ECJRRISG/ IT 13 TAKEN INTO ACCOUNT IN TM£ ASSESSMENT OF THE YEAR AKEAD. 

SOJRCE: PREPARED OR ESTI'^ATEO ON THE BASIS OF OFFICIAL STATISTICS OF FOREIGN GOVERNMENTS/ 0"^HER 
FOREIGN S0J5CE "ATE^IALS/ REPORTS OF U.S. AGRICULTURAL ATTACHES AND FOREIGN SERVICE OFFICERS/ 
RESULTS OF OFFICE R E S £ A R C " / AND RELATED I N F 0 R»i ATI ON . 



C3^"^00ITY PR0 35 A-S/ FAS/ USDA 



16 



WORLD COARSE GRAIN TRADE 
OCTOBER/SEPTEMBER YEARS 1981/82 - 1985/86 
(IN THOUSANDS OF METRIC TONS) 





1981 /82 


1982/83 


1983/84 


1984/35 


1985/86 


1 985/86 












FEB11 


MAR11 


;XPORTS 














UNITED STATES 


58441 


53990 


5579S 


55495 


49060 


45885 


CANADA 


7222 


7074 


5482 


3307 


5830 


5330 


ARGENTINA 


10328 


11624 


1 0854 


106 20 

1 w w w w 


11265 

1 1 W a' 


1 1 8 5 


AUSTRALIA 


3075 


979 


5555 


7105 


6000 


6025 


EC-10 


4000 


4290 


4250 


8000 

w W W w 


7000 

1 W w vj 


7onn 

1 w U V 


0. W. EUROPE 


720 


945 


1159 


2544 


251 0 


2510 


EAST EUROPE 


2148 


3266 


3032 


3010 


2100 


2010 


THAILAND 


351 2 


2326 


3386 


3523 


3850 


3825 


SOUTH AFRICA 


4701 


2300 


75 


453 


1000 


1000 


CHINA 


200 


100 


475 


5690 


4700 


470C 


SUBTOTAL 


94347 


86894 


90066 


99747 


9331 5 


90650 


OTHER COUNTRIES 


2270 


2959 


1 937 


1 761 


1470 


1670 


WORLD TOTAL 


9661 7 


89853 


92003 


1 01 508 


94785 


92320 


;mports 














EC-1 0 


S300 


5650 


5750 


4000 


3200 


3200 


0. W. EUROPE 


1 2696 


9962 


8120 


6867 


5100 


5150 


EAST EUROPE 


6148 


485 2 


421 8 


3422 


5800 


5820 


JAPAN 


1 7866 


1 8693 


20721 


20721 


21 500 


21200 


CHINA 


1468 


2548 


231 


140 


250 


250 


USSR 


20400 


11000 


11900 


27300 


1 7000 


1 6000 


E3YPT 


1350 


1 51 6 


1500 


1700 


1900 


1900 


ALGERI A 


559 


750 


1143 


1 168 


590 


590 


MOROCCO 


427 


140 


235 


248 


1 90 


1 90 


TUNISIA 


377 


169 


296 


229 


1 SO 


265 


SOUTH AFRICA 


1 30 


767 


2922 


862 


0 


200 


CANADA 


904 


750 


31 8 


425 


300 


300 


MEXICO 


1633 


7232 


5856 


421 5 


5050 


41 00 


5RAZIL 


1 1 8 


11 5 


560 


472 


3000 


3000 


CHILE 


345 


340 


66 


20 


25 


2 5 


PERU 


555 


446 


467 


302 


240 


240 


VENEZUELA 


1 653 


1 31 8 


1 620 


1785 


1 700 


1700 


JAMAICA 


159 


166 


190 


145 


1 40 


140 


CUBA 


475 


465 


429 


566 


500 


500 


COLOMBIA 


302 


304 


181 


305 


340 


34C 


ISRAEL 


1166 


1229 


1085 


1043 


1110 


1110 


LEBANON 


216 


225 


122 


85 


1 25 


125 


SAUDI ARABIA 


4630 


3450 


5932 


61 80 


6500 


6500 


SYRIA 


275 


225 


425 


21 5 


300 


450 


IRAN 


1030 


1 649 


1275 


1 2d0 


15 00 


1500 


IRAQ 


425 


489 


605 


825 


550 


550 


MALAYSIA 


794 


945 


1139 


1205 


1250 


1235 


INDONESI A 


2 


198 


66 


75 


70 


70 


KOREA/ REP. 


3149 


41 46 


4049 


3613 


4C65 


4065 


PHILIPPINES 


301 


55 6 


21 7 


363 


0 


125 


TAIWAN 


3871 


4150 


3939 


4164 


4240 


4240 


SINGAPORE 


460 


490 


474 


6 50 


450 


453 


SUBTOTAL 


92184 


S4935 


86101 


94590 


371 65 


85530 


OTHER COUNTRIES 


3738 


4413 


5550 


6333 


4782 


4872 


UNACCOUNTED 1) 


695 


505 


352 


585 


2838 


191 8 


WORLD TOTAL 


9661 7 


89552 


92003 


101 508 


9 4 7 3 5 


92320 


1) THIS REPRESENTS EXPORTS 


NOT ACCO 


USTED FOR IN 


REPORTS FROM 


IMPORTING COUNTRIES. SINCE 


THIS IS 


(ECURRING/ IT IS TAKEN INTO 


' ACCOUNT 


IN THE ASSESSMENT OF THE 


YEAR AHEAD. 







SOURCE: PREPARED OR ESTIf^^TED ON THE BASIS OF OFFICIAL STATISTICS OF FOREIGN GOVERNMENTS, OTHER 
FOREIGN SOURCE MATERIALS/ REPORTS OF U.S. AGRICULTURAL ATTACHES AND FOREIGN SERVICE OFFICERS 
RESULTS OF OFFICE RESEARCH/ AND RELATED INFORMATION. 



COMMODITY PROGRAMS/ FAS/ USDA 



17 



WORLD PICE TRADE 
CAL YEAR 1982 TO 1986 
(IN THOUSANDS OF '^ETRIC TONS) 







CAL YR 


CAL YR 


CAL YR 


CAL YR 


CAL 1 956 


CAL 1986 






1982 


1 983 


1934 


1985 


FE31 1 


MA "1 1 


EXPORTS 
















UNITED STATES 




2487 


2331 


2129 


1906 


1800 


1 300 


ARGENTINA 




92 


68 


1 1 5 


165 


145 


145 


AUSTRALIA 




530 


281 


370 


400 


500 


400 


3 U R 1 A 




701 


750 


727 


450 


SCO 


500 


CHINA 




470 


5SC 


116 8 


1 000 


900 


900 


T AI W A"^ 




307 


533 


210 


70 


1 00 


100 


EC-1 0 




826 


807 


742 


853 


745 


985 


EGYPT 




22 


21 


50 


2C 


50 


50 


GUYANA 




35 


45 


47 


35 


3 5 


3 5 


INDIA 




633 


200 


200 


200 


200 


200 


INDONESIA 




0 


0 


0 


41 5 


300 


300 


J AOAN 




318 


321 


102 


0 


0 


0 


<OREA/ DOR 




250 


250 


250 


250 


250 


250 


NEPAL 




50 


0 


20 


50 


25 


25 


PAKISTAN 




794 


1 299 


1050 


961 


900 


900 


THAILAND 




3620 


3700 


4528 


3993 


4300 


4300 


URUGUAY 




227 


1 89 


1 5 5 


240 


260 


260 


VIETNAM 




1 5 


1^0 


150 


50 


50 


5G 


SU3T0TAL 




11377 


11515 


1 201 3 


11055 


1 1060 


1 1 200 


OTHER COUNTRIES 




446 


41 0 


554 


390 


425 


475 


WORLD TOTAL 


= = 


11823 
============= 


11925 


1 2567 


1 1 448 


11485 


1 1 675 


IMPORTS 
















BANGLADESH 




296 


82 


588 


275 


200 


200 


3RAZIL 




1 24 


326 


0 


4 00 


600 


800 


CANADA 




108 


115 


115 


115 


115 


115 


CHINA 




250 


75 


100 


100 


100 


100 


CU3A 




201 


207 


200 


200 


200 


200 


EAST EUROPE 




303 


291 


366 


308 


335 


31 5 


EC-10 




1169 


979 


1105 


1141 


1040 


1235 


INDIA 




10 


315 


560 


10 


10 


10 


IRAQ 




369 


474 


490 


470 


550 


550 


IRAN 




587 


680 


730 


600 


750 


750 


IVORY COAST 




357 


434 


368 


250 


250 


250 


KOREA/ REP. 




228 


216 


7 


0 


0 


C 


KUWAIT 




64 


55 


80 


90 


90 


90 


»1ALAGASY 




357 


185 


99 


120 


1 5C 


150 


•MALAYSIA 




4C3 


357 


437 


425 


500 


450 


MEXICO 




16 


0 


162 


1 50 


50 


50 


NIGERIA 




666 


711 


450 


500 


500 


500 


PHILIPPINES 




0 


r 


21 3 


488 


300 


150 


PERU 




53 


101 


48 


5 


150 


150 


PORTUGAL 




110 


30 


105 


80 


80 


100 


SAUDI ARABIA 




471 


491 


530 


500 


50C 


500 


SENEGAL 




370 


362 


375 


350 


350 


350 


SOUTH AFRICA 




146 


158 


186 


170 


1 90 


1 90 


SRI LANKA 




217 


157 


20 


205 


1 50 


153 


SYRIA 




102 


120 


130 


130 


130 


130 


U.A. EMIRATES 




102 


100 


120 


130 


140 


140 


USSR 




859 


323 


150 


150 


150 


150 


VIETNAM 




150 


30 


300 


400 


400 


400 


SUBTOTAL 




8093 


7374 


8040 


7762 


7980 


?175 


OTHER COUNTRIES 




3211 


399S 


3880 


3028 


3210 


3140 


UNACCOUNTED 1) 




519 


553 


647 


658 


295 


360 


WORLD TOTAL 


sx 


11823 


11925 


1 2567 


11448 


11485 


11675 


1) THIS »E«»RESENTS 


EXPORTS 


NOT ACCOUNTED 


FOR IN 


REPORTS FROM 


IMPORTING COUNTRIES. SINCE 


THIS 


IS RECURRING IT 


IS TAKEN 


INTO ACCOUNT 


IN THE 


ASSESSMENT OF 


THE YEAR AHEAD. 







SOURCE: PREOAOED OR ESTIMATED ON THE BASIS OF OFFICIAL STATISTICS OF FOREIGN GOVERNMENTS/ OTHER 
FOREIGN SOURCE MATERIALS/ REPORTS OF U.S. AGRICULTURAL ATTACHES AND FOREIGN SERVICE OFFICERS/ 
RESULTS OF OFFICE RESEARCH/ AND RELATED INFORMATION. 

COMMODITY PROGRAMS/ FAS/ USDA 



18 









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20 



USS!? AND CHINA: G9AIN S S 0 
WHEAT AND COAPSE G^^AINS 
JJLY/JUNE YEA9S 1073/75 - 1985/S6 
MILLION *1ETRIC TONS /H EC TA 9 ES 





APEA 


YIELD 


POCDUCTION 


J UL/J L'** 


JUL/JUN 


NET 


UTILIZ ATION 


STOCKS 




M ASVESTEP 






I-oCSTS 


EXPORTS 


I^'POPTS 


TOTAL 1/ 


CHANGE 


USS^ 


















WHEAT AND C0A9S 


£ ^^AINS 
















1 973/79 


1 20. 9 


1 .87 


226.2 


15.1 


2.5 


12.5 


219.7 


19.0 


1979/30 


115.9 


1 .44 


171 .3 


30.5 


0.5 


30.0 


214.4 


-13.0 


1 9S0/31 


115.3 


1 .50 


178.7 


34.0 


0.5 


33.5 


214.2 


-2.0 


1931/32 


117.3 


1 .30 


1 5 Z- . 0 


45,0 


0.5 


44.5 


20C.5 


-4.0 


1 932/33 


115.3 


1.45 


172.0 


31 .5 


Q.5 


31.0 


204.0 


-1.0 


1933/34 


112.0 


1 . 5" 


173.0 


32.0 


0.5 


31.5 


206.5 


3.0 


1934/35 3/ 


110.3 


1 . 44 


159.0 


55.0 


1.0 


54.0 


207.0 


6.0 


1985/86 4/ 


108.0 


1 .64 


1 77.0 


33.0 


1.0 


32.0 


204.0 


5.0 



WHEAT 

1973/7? 
1979/30 
1930/31 
1 931 /32 
1 952/53 
1 933/34 
1934/35 
1 935/36 



3/ 
4/ 



6 2.9 
57.7 
61 .5 
59.2 
57.3 
50.8 
51.1 
50.2 



1 .0? 
1 . 56 
1 .60 
1 .35 
1.50 
1 .56 
1 .43 
1.65 



120.8 
90.2 
9S.2 
SCO 
36.0 
79.0 
73.0 
83.0 



5.1 
12.1 
16.0 
19.5 
20.2 
20.5 
23.1 
13.0 



1.5 
0.5 
0.5 
0.5 
0.5 
0.5 
1.0 
1.0 



3.6 
11.6 
15.5 
19.0 
19.7 
20.0 
27.1 
17. C 



106.5 
114.8 
114.7 
1C2.0 
105.7 
97.0 
96.1 



96.0 



18.0 
•13.0 
-1.0 
-3.0 
0.0 
2.0 
4.0 
4.0 



COARSE GRAINS 5/ 


















1 973/70 


53. 0 


1.82 


105.3 


9.9 


1.0 


3.9 


113.2 


1.0 


1979/30 


61 .2 


1 .33 


31.1 


13.4 


0.0 


18.4 


99.5 


CO 


1930/31 


57.9 


1.39 


80.5 


13.0 


CO 


18.0 


99.5 


-1 .0 


1 931/32 


55.0 


1 . 24 


72.0 


25.5 


CO 


25.5 


95.5 


-1.0 


1932/33 


5 5.0 


1.43 


56.0 


11.3 


0.0 


11.3 


. 3 


-1.0 


1933/S4 


61 . 2 


1 . 62 


9 9.0 


11.5 


CO 


11.5 


1 09. 5 


1.0 


1934/35 3/ 


55.2 


1 .45 


56.0 


?6.9 


o.c 


26.9 


110.9 


2.0 


1935/36 4/ 


57.3 


1 .63 


94.0 


15.0 


0.0 


15.0 


10". C 


1.0 



CHINA 



WHEAT AND COARSE GRAINS 



1 973/79 
1979/30 
1 930/ 31 
1931/32 
19 3 2/33 
1933/84 
1934/35 
1 935/36 



3/ 
4/ 



52.7 



63, 
j1 , 
59, 
57, 

5£ , 



5£.3 
56.7 



2.12 

2. 31 
2.26 
?.36 
2.64 
2.97 
3.14 

3. GO 



132.9 
145.5 
139.4 
140.4 
15C.8 
174.0 
183.3 
169.9 



11.1 
10.9 
14.6 
14.5 
15.7 
9.8 
7.5 
6.8 



CI 
0.1 
C2 
0.2 
CI 
C5 
5.7 
4.7 



11.3 
10.8 
14.4 
1 4.3 
15.6 
9.4 
1.8 
2.1 



143.9 
156.5 
154.0 
154.5 
166.4 
153.4 
185 .1 
1 71 .9 



0.0 
0.0 
0.0 
0.0 
0.0 
CO 
0.0 
0.0 



WHEAT 

1973/79 
1979/80 
1 930/31 
1931/82 
1932/33 
1933/34 
1 934/85 
1 935/36 



29. 
2», 
29. 
25, 



3/ 
4/ 



27.9 
29.0 
29.6 
29.3 



1 .34 
2.14 
1 .55 
2.11 
2.45 
2.80 
2.97 
2.93 



53.8 
62.7 
55.? 
59.6 
63.4 
51 .4 
57.8 
56.0 



«.0 
8.9 
13.8 
13.2 
13.0 
9.6 
7.4 
6.5 



CO 
0.0 
0.0 

o.c 
o.c 

CO 
0.0 
0.0 



3.0 
5.9 
13. 8 
13.2 
13.0 
9.6 
7.i 
6.5 



61 .9 
71 .6 
69.0 
72.8 
81 .4 
91 .0 
95.2 
92.5 



0.0 
0.0 
0.0 
0.0 
0.0 
0.0 
0.0 
0.0 



COARSE Gi^AlNS 5/ 

1973/7? 33.5 

1979/30 33.7 

1930/81 32.5 

1951/32 31.1 

1932/33 25.3 

1933/34 25.6 

1934/35 3/ 28.7 

1935/36 4/ 27.3 



2.36 
2.46 
2.59 
2.60 
2. 51 
3.13 
3.32 
3.07 



7 9.0 
33.1 
54 .2 
50.3 
32.4 
92.6 
95.4 
83.9 



3.1 
2.0 
0.9 
1.3 
2.7 
0.2 
0.1 
0. ■» 



C1 
0.1 
C2 
0.2 
CI 
C5 
5.7 
4.7 



3.0 
1.9 
0.7 
1.1 
2.6 
■0.2 
•5.5 
■4.4 



52. C 
85.0 
85.0 
51 .9 
5':.0 
92.4 
89 .9 
79.4 



0.0 
0.0 
0.0 
0.0 
0.0 
0.0 
0.0 

o.c 



1/ FEED USE DATA ARE UNAVAILABLE FOR CHINA. 

2/ FOR CHINA/ UTILIZATION ESTIMATES REPRESENT "APPARENT" UTILIZATION/ I.E. THEY INCLUDE ANNUAL STOCK LEVEL 

ADJJST'IENTS THOUG" NO STOCKS DATA ARE AVAILABLE. 
3/ PRELIMINARY. 
4/ PROJECTION. 

5/ COARSE GPAINS INCLUDE BARLEY/ RYE/ OATS/ CORN/ SORGHUM/ AND ^"ILLET. EXCLUDED ARE MISCELLANEOUS GRAINS/ 
PULSES AND RICE. 

COM.MODITY PROGRAMS/ FAS/ U3DA GRAIN AND FEED DIVISION 



21 



HHE*T: Si;o = LY »\D : I S 4 E A » AS C E 
U.S. AND "iJOR CCBC'ITOSS 
1973/74 - 19?5/5* 

•ruLiON METRIC tons/he:t«?es 

ARE* Y:E^3 oRODUCTIOS 00»ESTIC EX'CS'S 1/ - - YEAR 2/ 

HA9V£STE3 use JUL/JUS Y£AP ESD STCC<S 







CANADA 




Y : » ? « J 


C / 1 T 1 % 

: I J J L / 








1 973/74 




9.6 


1.6? 


16.2 


4.6 


11.7 


11.4 


10.1 


1974/75 




8.9 


1.49 


13.3 


4.6 


11.2 


1C.7 


3.0 


1975/76 




9.5 


1.80 


1''.1 


4.6 


12.1 


12.3 


8.2 


1976/77 




11.3 


2.10 


23.5 


5.0 


12.9 


13.4 


13.3 


1 977/73 




1D.1 


1.96 


19.5 


5.1 


15.9 


16.0 


12.1 


107S/79 




10.6 


2.30 


21.1 


5.3 


13.5 


13.1 


14.9 


1 ?'9/?l 




ICS 


1 .64 


17.2 


5.5 


15.0 


15.9 


10.7 


19Sj/?1 




11.1 


1.73 


19.2 


5.0 


I'.O 


16.3 


3.6 


1 951/32 




12.4 


2.3C 


24.5 


5.2 


17.6 


13.4 


9.8 


1932/53 




12.6 


2.13 


26.' 


5.1 


21.4 


21 .4 


10.0 


1 9!3/S4 




13.7 


1.94 


26. 5 


5.6 


21.3 


21 .3 


9.2 


19S4/35 


3/ 


13.2 


1.61 


21.2 


5.4 


19.4 


17.5 




1985/36 


4/ 


13.7 


1 .75 


23.9 


5.9 


17.5 


13.3 


7.5 



AUSTRALIA ("A'<ET:n1 vjib ccT/SE') 



1973/74 




6.9 


1 .34 


12.: 


3.5 


5.4 


7.3 


2.3 


1974/75 




8.3 


1 . 37 


11.4 


3.1 


3.3 


3.6 


1.7 


1975/76 




3.6 


1.4? 


12.3 


2.3 


7.9 


3.7 


2.7 


1976/77 




9.0 


1 .32 


11 


2.8 


3. 5 


9.5 


2.1 


1977/-'3 




10.0 


C". 


9.4 


2.6 


11.1 


3.1 


3.8 


1978/79 




10.2 


1 .77 


1 3.1 


2.5 


6.7 


11.7 


4.6 


1970/83 




11.2 


1 .45 


16.2 


3.4 


15.0 


13.2 


4.3 


1930/S1 




11.3 


3.96 


■> t. 9 


3.5 


10.6 


9.5 


2.: 


1931/32 




11.9 


1 .35 


16. i 


2.6 


11.0 


11.0 


4.6 


1932/33 




11.5 


0.77 


5.9 


4.1 


3.1 


7.3 


2 . 3 


1933/34 




12.9 


1.73 


22. 3 


3.4 


10.6 


13.3 


7,6 


1934/85 


3/ 


12.0 


1 .52 


15.3 


3.3 


15.3 


14.3 


3.6 


1 935/36 


4/ 


12.3 


1 .38 


16.5 


3.0 




15.5 


6.6 






A96ESTIS* 


(v.. 5<et: 


>i 3 yes; 


3EC/H0V) 








1 973/74 




4.0 


1 .66 


6.6 


4.2 


1 .1 


1.6 


1.C 


1974/75 




4.2 


l.f 


6.2 


4.5 


2.2 


1.3 


0.7 


1975/76 




5.3 


1.63 


5.6 


5.4 


3.2 


3.2 


3.7 


1974/77 




6.4 


1.71 


11 .: 


4.2 


5.6 


5.9 


1.6 


1977/73 




3.9 


1.45 


5 . 7 


4.3 


2 . 6 


1 .5 


1 . 2 


1973/79 




4.7 


1 .73 


3 . 1 


4.1 


3.3 


4.1 


1.1 


1979/50 




4.3 


1.69 


3.1 


4.0 


4.3 


4.3 


3.4 


1930/31 




5.3 


1.53 


7.3 


3.9 


3.9 


3.S 


:.4 


1931/32 




5.9 


1.40 


8.3 


4.3 


4.3 


3.6 


c. s 


1932/33 




7.3 


2.35 




4.S 


7.5 


9.9 


1.1 


1933/34 




6.9 


1 .55 


12.3 


4.7 


5.7 


7.3 


1 .3 


1934/35 


3/ 


5.9 


2 . 2t 


13.2 


4.6 


3.3 


9.4 


0.5 


1935/36 


4/ 


5.3 


1 .6-' 


a , 5 


4.4 


6.1 


4.2 


0.4 



TOTAL C3*»rTI-;'S 



1 9'3/74 


22.5 


1.54 


34.7 


12.4 


13.3 


20.0 


13.1 


1974/75 


21 .5 


1.47 


3:. 6 


12.2 


21.6 


21.1 


10.4 


1975/76 


23.3 


1.61 


37.6 


1 2.3 


23.2 


24.1 


11.6 


1976/77 


26. 5 


1 .74 


46.4 


12.1 


27.0 


23.8 


17.1 


1977/73 


24.3 


1.46 


34.9 


12.0 


29.5 


25.9 


14.1 


1975/79 


25.5 


1.55 


47. 3 


11.9 


23.5 


23.8 


20.7 


1979/30 


26.4 


1.57 


41 .5 


12.0 


34.7 


33. S 


15.4 


1983/51 


27.4 


1.3S 


37.5 


12.5 


31 .5 


29.7 


11.0 


1931/32 


3C,2 


1 .64 


49.5 


12.1 


32.9 


33.1 


15.3 


1 932/33 


31 .4 


1 .61 


53.6 


14. C 


37.0 


38."; 


13.4 


1933/54 


33.5 


1 .53 


61.3 


13.7 


42.0 


43.0 


15.3 


1934/35 3/ 


31-1 


1 .69 


52.7 


13.2 


42.7 


40.9 


16.5 


1935/35 4/ 


31.3 


1.55 


45.9 


13.3 


39.3 


37.7 


14.4 




L . S . 


("S'KETI'.tt 


YEA9 J!JN/*I«Y) 










1 973/74 


21.9 


2.12 


46. 6 


23.5 


31.3 


33.1 


9.3 


1974/75 


26.5 


1 .33 


45.5 


15.3 


23.3 


27.7 


11.3 


1 975/74 


23.1 


2.36 


57. 9 


19.7 


31.7 


31.9 


13.1 


1 9-'6/77 


25.7 


2.34 


5 3.5 


20. 5 


26.1 


25.9 


30.3 


1 977/73 


27.3 


2 . 06 


55.7 


23.4 


31.5 


33.6 


32.1 


1975/79 


22.9 


2.11 


4'. 3 


22.3 


32.3 


32.5 


25.1 


1979/30 


25.3 


2.33 


53.1 


21.3 


37.2 


37.4 


24.5 


1930/51 


25.2 


2.25 


64.8 


21.3 


41 .9 


41.2 


26.9 


1 93-' /s2 


32.6 


2.32 


73.3 


23.1 


43. S 


43.2 


31.5 


1952/33 


31 .5 


2.39 


75.3 


24.7 


39.9 


41 .1 


41.2 


1933/34 


24. 3 


2.65 


65.9 


3 3.2 


33.9 


38.9 


33.1 


1934/35 3/ 


2 ■» , 1 


2.61 


73.6 


31.4 


33.1 


33. 8 


33.8 


1935/36 4/ 


26.2 


2.52 


66.3 


29.3 


26.0 


24.5 


51.4 



TCTJu 'J.S. AND ::''3E'fIT3?S 

1973/74 44.4 1.33 31.3 32.9 49.6 53.1 22.3 

1974/75 47.9 1.65 79.1 33.5 49.9 48.8 22.2 

1975/74 51.4 1.84 95.5 32.1 54.9 56.0 29.8 

1974/77 55,3 1.90 104.9 32.7 53.1 54.7 47.3 

1977/73 51.3 1.78 93.6 35.4 61.1 36.5 46.1 

1973/79 43. 1.98 95.7 34.7 55.8 61.3 45.8 

1979/33 51.7 1.93 99.6 34.2 71.9 71.3 40.0 

1983/81 54.2 1.33 1^2.4 33.3 73.5 70.9 37.9 

1981/82 62.9 1.99 125.3 35.1 81.7 81.3 44.9 

1982/83 42.9 2.0C 125.9 33.7 76.9 79.4 54.4 

1933/34 53.4 2.15 127.1 43.9 80.9 31.8 56.' 

1934/85 3/ 58.2 2.12 123.3 44.6 80.3 79.7 55.3 

1935/34 4/ 57.2 2.31 114.9 42.6 65.3 62.2 65.8 



1/ Xs:lU3=3 Tn£ .ncAT ElOIVALENT OF FLOJB. 

2/ NET CiA>(3E3 IN fAPX STCCifS FO' Ai^SENTrN* AND AUSTRALIA 19E f;FLECTE9 IN 5C"ESTIC 

3ISAPPEA5As:e. 
3/ 'RELIXINARY. 
4/ !>^CJEC'E5. 

S0J9CES: •REOARcD 09 ESTIOA-eo ON ^ASIS OF C^FICIAL STATISTICS OF FOREIGN EOVERNCESTS/ 
O^HEa eOREIG*. SOOSCE XATEaiAL?/ RE»0»TS OF j.S. A5RICULTURAL ATTACHES ANC F0REI6N SERVICE 
OFFICERS^ RESOLTS C 3'fICE "tSEAacx/ AN5 "ELA^EC I NFORHATl OS . 

CO"-OOITr PROSRA'S/ fAS, JSC* 6RAIS AND FEED DIVISION 



22 



SELSCTcD COURSE GRAINS 
*!AJOP EXOORTERS 
PRODUCTION YEARS 197S - 1935 
THOUSANDS OF WETOIC TC NS / H E CT A R E S 

ARFA YIELD PRODUCTION DO^-ESTIC - - EXPORTS - - ENDING 

HARVESTED UTILIZATION OCT/SEP *^)CT YR STCC<S 



H 0 C 1 i ^ H 




»J"Hi'N ^ J £ nU 


fvae / ECS) 

V *''/ is/ 


















7 7 






i X i 1 


7 7 5 5 

- f 7 7 


1 /. i 


\ f 7 } I70J/J| 




1 ? 7 3 


7 7 1 


t ^ 0 c 


i c e ^ 

I ^ ^ 


L ^ A^ 
H 0 0 J 


1 /. 0 A. 

1 b V if 


c c 






7 1 on 


7 7 S 


7 -1 n 0 


PICT 


^ 7 1 A 

7^10 




1 5 C 






? m Ti 

C ' 1 u 


7 10 


0 U U w 


poor 

t U 7 w 


A 0 T 1 


5 5 A A 
7 7 ** *♦ 


5 


(82) 1933/34 




2520 


3.02 


7600 


2700 


47Kg 


51 97 


201 


(83) 1934/35 




2370 


3.04 


7200 


30 50 


33 65 


41 34 


217 


(34) 1935/36 


1/ 


1 987 


2.97 


5900 


2700 


2 200 


730C 


117 


(35) 1936/37 


?/ 


13 50 


3.33 


4500 


2 5 00 




2C03 


117 


AUSTP AL I A 




3RAIN SCRoHU" 


( A 9 / F E ^ ) 












(73) 1979/80 




469 


2 . 4C 


112 5 


502 


650 


669 


134 


(79) 1930/31 




51 9 


1.75 


922 


367 


51c 


506 


183 


( SO) 19 31/32 




65 8 


1 . 33 


1204 


466 


1233 


P56 


65 


(31 ) 1932/33 




649 


2.03 


1317 


366 


231 


961 


55 


(62) 19S3/S4 




707 


1 .36 


95? 


701 


1 427 


2»2 


30 


(S3) 1934/35 




730 


2.5? 


1335 


390 


1 240 


1425 


100 


(34) 1935/36 


1 / 


70 7 


1 .77 


1 250 


225 


1 100 


1100 


25 


(85) 1936/37 


2/ 


300 


2.06 


1 650 


435 




1 2 00 


40 


ARG£N"^ISA 




CO'V (MAR/FE3) 














{. I S 1 1 y f y / ij 




c S V y 


^ in 


2 0 0 

J J J 


7 7 0 *k 
- £ ^ 0 


7 / A n 
i 4 0 U 


C 0 A 5 
7 7 0 7 


I t i 






0 A O 

I 


£ • 3 f 




T T A 3 




7/17 


1 (Jo 






1 7 0 A 
5 3 ^ H 


3 • 0 c 


1 5 0 0 r, 


J f UU 


i 0 7 7 


0 0 C 

y ^ V 5 


CI u 






7171 


^ a J ^ 


T 0 U L 


^ J w U 


6 4"' 


5 7 A ^ 

r f c 7 


J ■» 


(S2) 1933/34 




2970 


3.03 


9 000 


3200 


5 335 


6056 


289 


(33) 1934/?5 




3025 


3. 04 


9200 


3725 


7060 


5443 


316 


(34) 1935/36 


1 / 


3 3 5 0 


3.43 


11 50C 


3S00 


9500 


^200 


816 


(35) 1936/37 


2/ 


3500 


3.71 


1 3 000 


3"'0C 




9300 


316 






CORN (SSy/APR) 














(75) 1979/33 




4305 


1.92 


82 '1 


6702 


3303 


23 2 5 


1359 


(79) 19SC/'1 




4 322 


2.50 


1 0''94 


5757 


3930 


3444 


195 2 






43 3 9 


3.3? 


1 4 6 4 5 


7097 


4700 


4955 


4545 


(81) 1?S?/33 




42 73 


1.95 


33 5 5 


7663 


2 300 


40 3 4 


133 3 


(32) 1953/34 




4065 


1 .00 


4053 


7525 


75 


238 


42 


(33) 1934/^5 




3953 


1.11 


4 40 5 


6182 


350 


9 


264 


(34) 1935/36 


1 / 


3357 


1 .94 


7550 


6753 


900 


350 


911 


(35) 1956/37 


2/ 


4C00 


2.13 


3 500 


6511 




2000 


900 


THAILAND 




CORN (JUL /JIN) 














(73) 1978/79 




1356 


2 .01 


2791 


691 


1927 


2378 


53 


(79) 1979/30 




1424 


2.32 


3300 


1 050 


?067 


2150 


1 53 


(5C) 19S:/31 




145G 


2.21 


3 20c 


11c? 


21 1 3 


2142 


103 


(31) 1951/32 




1750 


2.49 


4350 


1 053 


3260 


3260 


143 


(32) 1932/33 




1 5 0 


1 .f 6 


345C 


116C 


2136 


2136 


297 


(33) 1953/34 




1 375 


2.11 


3950 


1300 


3026 


2546 


101 


(34) 1 9 ?4 / 35 


1 / 


1 955 


2.23 


4350 


1 290 


31 ?C 


3057 


104 


(35) 1935/36 


2/ 


2150 


2.40 


51 50 


1450 


3 500 


3400 


404 


A 1 1 C T Q A 1 ^ ^ 

*U5TKAL*H 




3A.RLEY (NOV/OCT) 












^7a^ 107P/70 




27?5 


1 .44 


4 0 w' 5 


\ ^ t J 


opr.? 


7117 


c 1 T 


{7 J \ ^ ^ / i J 




2432 


1 .49 




■1 T C 7 


? J 




55 






2451 


1 .09 


0 i 3 ^ 

2 0 2 <i 


i - 1 


1 5 *• J 




125 


(SI; 1931/32 




2685 


1 .28 


345 0 


1 266 




7 7*"^ 


50 


i} 1 •> s c / i i 




2..52 




1 0 7 0 

1 V i y 


1 11 c 


K n n 
OUU 


7 C *» 




(33) 1933/34 




31C9 


1 .S' 


4390 


310 


3721 


4117 


53 


(34) 1934/35 


1 / 


350"' 


1.59 


5561 


700 


5300 


4900 


14 


(35) 1935/36 


2/ 


3480 


1 .44 


5 03G 


450 


4500 


4500 


64 


CANADA 




8ARL = Y (AJ'S/Jl 


L) 












(73) 197?/'9 




4259 


2.44 


10387 


7146 


3898 


3554 


4995 


(79) 19-'9/30 




3724 


2.27 


S46C 


7537 


2963 


3^32 


2006 


(33) 1?3:/51 




4634 


2.43 


11259 


6935 


401 2 


3236 


3203 


(31 ) 1 931 /?2 




5476 


2.51 


1 3724 


7046 


5543 


3^22 


4161 


(£2) 1932/33 




3149 


2.71 


1 3966 


7275 


6 071 


5648 


5204 


(33) 1933/34 




4353 


2.35 


1 02C9 


7906 


4240 


5536 


1 971 


(34) 1934/35 


1 / 


4566 


2.25 


10296 


7651 


2454 


2604 


201 2 


(^5) 1935/36 


2/ 


4752 


2.55 


1 2250 


7500 


45G0 


4300 


2462 



NOTE: YEARi Is »AR?NTi-E3ES DENOTE "ODUCTION YEARS JSED FOR ASGREGATING WORLD CROPS. SPLI' YEARS 
(E.G. 1 932/83 ) ARE ■'AK<ETIVG YE* = «. 

1/ "RELIMINARY. 
2/ PRCJEC'^ION. 

SOURCES: bRE = AR£D 0? ESTI-ATE^ CN THE 3ASIS OF OFFICIAL STATISTICS OF FCREI'^N GOVERNMENTS/ OTHER 
FOREIGN SOJRCE "MATERIALS/ REPORTS CF U.S. AGRICULTURAL ATTACHES AND FOREIGN SERVICE OFFICERS/ RESULTS 
OP OFFICE RESEARCH AND RELA-^ED I N F CR"^ ATI ON . 

COfllCOITY PROGRAMS/ FAS/ USDA GRAIN AND FEED DIVISION 



23 



U.S. WHEAT AND COARSE GRAINS 
MILLION METRIC TON S / H E C T A R E S 
•MARKETING YEARS 1960/61 - 1985/86 

BEGINNING AREA YIELD PRODUCTION IMPORTS EXPORTS DOMESTIC DOMESTIC 

STOCKS HAPVESTHO FOR FEED TOTAL USE 



TOTAL WHEAT AND COARSE GRAINS 



1960/61 


105.6 


73.3 


2. 


4 


173 


.8 


0. 


6 


29 


.0 


110 


.1 


137.7 


1961 /62 


118.3 


64.1 


2. 


5 


161 


.0 


0. 


5 


34 


.7 


112 


.8 


140.8 


1962/63 


104.3 


59.7 


2. 


7 


159 


.3 


0. 


3 


32 


.9 


109 


.6 


137.9 


1 963/64 


93.2 


61.6 


2. 


3 


171 


.5 


0. 


4 


39 


.7 


1C6 


.9 


135.3 


1 964/65 


90.1 


60.2 


2. 


6 


1 57 


.5 


0. 


4 


39 


T 

. V 


104 


.4 


133.6 


1965/66 


76.5 


59.6 


3. 


0 


179 


.1 


0. 


3 


43 


.9 


120 


.0 


148.9 


1 966/67 


58.2 


60.2 


3. 


0 


1 SO 


.7 


0. 


3 


41 


.1 


113 


.2 


148.6 


1967/63 


49.5 


65.0 


3. 


1 


203 


.9 


0. 


3 


41 


.5 


118 


.8 


1 49.5 


1968/6? 


62.7 


6 2.0 


3. 


2 


1 97 


.6 


0. 


3 


31 


.1 


126 


.9 


157.8 


1 969/70 


71 . 3 


53. 3 


3. 


4 


201 


.0 


0. 


4 


35 


.4 


134 


.0 


165.0 


1 970/71 


72.3 


58.4 


3. 


1 


1 32 


.9 


0. 


4 


38 


. S 


132 


.1 


162.8 


1 971 /72 


54.6 


62.9 


3. 


7 


233 


.6 


0. 


4 


40 


.5 


143 


.1 


174.6 


1 972/73 


73.4 


57.5 


3. 


9 


224 


.1 


0. 


5 


69 


.1 


147 


.8 


180.9 


1 973/74 


48.0 


63.5 


3. 


7 


233 


.3 


0. 


3 


73 


.8 


143 


.0 


176.7 


1 974/75 


31.1 


67.1 


3. 




1 99 


.4 


0. 


6 


63 


.6 


1C6 


.5 


1 40.1 


1975/76 


27.3 


70.3 


3. 


4 


243 


.3 


0. 


5 


82 


.0 


116 


.7 


1 53.7 


1 976/77 


35.5 


72.0 


3. 


5 


252 


.5 


0. 


4 


76 


.5 


115 


.3 


1 51 .9 


1977/73 


60.3 


71 .2 


3. 


7 


261 


.4 


0. 


4 


86 


.9 


124 


.5 


161.7 


1 978/79 


73.5 


66.0 


4. 


1 


270 


.5 


0. 


3 


92 


.7 


140 


.5 


180.0 


1 979/80 


71 .6 


67.1 


4. 


4 


296 


. 5 


0. 


4 


1C3 


.3 


140 


.9 


182.4 


1 930/81 


77.2 


70.1 


3. 


8 


263 


.1 


0. 


3 


110 


.7 


124 


.6 


16?. 4 


1 931/32 


61 .6 


76.1 


4. 


2 


322 


.4 


(0. 


4 


106 


.8 


132 


.3 


177.8 


1 932/83 


99.8 


74.8 


4. 


4 


326 


.0 


0. 


6 


95 


.1 


144 


.9 


192.5 


1 983/34 


133.7 


57.7 


3. 


5 


203 


.0 


0. 


8 


94 


.6 


128 


.0 


178.1 


1 934/85 


69.8 


70.6 


4. 


4 


308 


.3 


1 . 


0 


94 


.7 


142 


.4 


19"^. 2 


1935/36 


S9.2 


71 .6 


4. 


8 


340 


.3 


0. 


9 


70 


.2 


141 


.4 


1 05.8 



1936/87 164.5 



WHEAT 



1970/71 
1 971 /72 
1972/73 
1 973/74 
1974/75 
1 975/76 
1 976/77 
1 977/73 
1973/7? 
1 979/80 
1 933/31 
1 931/32 
1932/83 
1 933/34 
1 934/35 
1 985/36 
1 9«6/37 

COARSE GRAINS 

1 970/71 
1971/72 
1972/73 
1973/74 
1974/75 
1975/76 
1 976/77 
1977/73 
1973/79 
1979/30 
1 930/31 
1931/32 
1982/83 
1923/34 
1 9 3 4 / 5 
1 935/86 
1936/87 



26.8 
22.4 
26.3 
16.2 
9.i 
11.8 
13.1 
30.3 
32.1 
25.1 
24.5 



26, 
31 , 
41 , 



38.1 
33.3 
51.4 



46.1 
32.2 
46.6 
31 .7 
21 .8 
15.5 
17.3 
30.0 
41 . 5 
46.4 
52.7 
34 
63 
97 
31 
50.5 
113.1 



17.7 


2.1 


36.8 


0.0 


20.2 


5.3 


21 .0 


19.3 


2.3 


44.1 


0.0 


16.3 


7.1 


23.4 


19.1 


2.2 


42.1 


0.0 


30.4 


5.5 


22.3 


21 .9 


2.1 


46.6 


0.1 


33.1 


■^.5 


20.5 


?6.5 


1 .5 


43.5 


0.1 


27.7 


1.1 


13.3 


25.1 


2.1 


57.0 


0.1 


31.9 


1 .0 


19.7 


28.7 


2.0 


53.5 


0.1 


25.9 


2.0 


20.5 


27.0 


2.1 


55.7 


0.1 


30.6 


5.3 


23.4 


22.0 


2.1 


48.3 


0.0 


32.5 


4.3 


22.8 


25.3 


2.3 


53.1 


0.1 


37.4 


2.3 


21.3 


28.8 


2.3 


64.8 


0.1 


41 .2 


1.6 


21.3 


32.6 


2.3 


75.8 


0.1 


43. 2 


3.6 


23.1 


31.5 


2.4 


75.3 


0.2 


41 .1 


5.3 


24.7 


24.8 


2.7 


65.9 


0.1 


33.0 


10.2 


30.2 


27.1 


2.6 


70.6 


0.2 


38.3 


11.2 


31 .4 


26. 2 


2.5 


66.0 


0.3 


24.5 


8.8 


20.3 


40.7 


3.6 


146.1 


0.4 


18.6 


126.9 


141 .8 


43.6 


4.3 


1 89.5 


0.3 


24.2 


176.0 


151 .3 


30.4 


4.7 


1 32.0 


0.4 


38.7 


142.3 


153.6 


41 .6 


4.5 


1 86. 


0.2 


40.7 


139.5 


156.2 


40.7 


3.7 


1 50.9 


0.5 


35. 9 


105.4 


121.8 


42.6 


4.4 


185.4 


0.4 


50.0 


115.6 


134. C 


43.3 


4.5 


194.4 


0.3 


50.6 


113.3 


131.4 


44. 2 


4.7 


205 .7 


0.3 


56.3 


119.2 


133.3 


43.2 


5.1 


222 .1 


0.3 


60.2 


136.2 


157.2 


41 .3 


5.7 


23 3 .4 


0.3 


71 .4 


138.5 


161 .1 


41 .3 


4.3 


198.3 


0.3 


69.5 


123.0 


147.1 


43.4 


5.7 


246.6 


0.3 


53.6 


123.7 


154.8 


43.2 


5.8 


250 .7 


0.4 


54.0 


139.6 


1 67.0 


32.9 


4.2 


137.1 


0.7 


55.7 


117.8 


1 47.8 


43.6 


5.5 


237.7 


0.8 


56.0 


131.2 


163.8 


45.4 


6.0 


274 .3 


0.6 


45.7 


132.5 


166.6 



NOTES: COARSE GRAINS INCLUOE CORN/ SCPGHUM/ BARLEY/ OATS AND RYE. 
SOURCE: OFFICIAL USDA STATISTICS OR ESTIMATES. 

C0>1M0DITY PROGPAr.S/ FAS< UGDA GRAIN AND FEED DIVISION 

24 



U.S. WHEAT, CORN, SORGHUM, BARLEY, OATS, AND RYE SUPPLY/DISTRIBUTION 
MILLION BUSHELS/MILLION ACRES 





Beginning 


Harvested 












Total 




Stocks 


Area 


Yield 


Production 


Imports 


Exports 


Feed Usage 


Domestic Use 


Wheat 


















1975/76 


435 


69.5 


30.6 


2,127 


2 


1,173 


37 


725 


X'ilblll 


666 


70.9 


30.3 


2,149 


3 


950 


75 


755 




1,113 


66. 7 


30.7 


2,046 


2 


1,124 


192 


859 




1,178 


5b. 5 


31.4 


1,776 


2 


1,194 


158 


837 


1979/80 


924 


62.5 


34.2 


2,134 


2 


1,375 


86 


783 


1980/81 


902 


71. 1 


33.5 


2,381 


3 


1 , 514 


60 


781 


1981/82 


989 


80.6 


34.5 


2,785 


3 


1,11 i. 


135 


847 


1982/83 


1, 159 


77.9 


35.5 


2,765 


8 


1,509 


195 


908 


1983/84 


1,515 


61.4 


39.4 


2,420 


4 


1,429 


369 


1,111 


1984/85 


1,399 


66.9 


38.8 


2,595 


8 


1,424 


410 


1,153 


1985/86 


1,425 


64.7 


37.5 


2,425 


12 


900 


325 


1,075 


1986/87 


1,887 














Corn 


















1975/76 


361 


67.6 


86.4 


5,841 


2 


1,711 


3,603 


4,093 


1976/77 


400 


71.5 


88.0 


6,289 


3 


1,684 


3,609 


4,122 


1977/78 


886 


70.6 


92.1 


6,505 


3 


1,948 


3,744 


4,334 


1978/79 


1,111 


71.9 


101.0 


7,268 


1 


2,133 


4,323 


4,943 


1979/80 


1,304 


72.4 


109.5 


7,928 


I 


2,433 


4,508 


5,183 


1 QO(-| / Rl 
1 5 OU / O L 


1 fil 7 

i , D J. / 


73 . 0 




D , D J 7 


1 




H , 1 J J 


4 , 868 


1981/82 


1,034 


74.6 


108.9 


8,119 


1 


1,967 


4,201 


5,013 


1982/83 


2,174 


72.7 


113.2 


8,235 


1 


1,870 


4,522 


5,420 


1983/84 


3,120 


51.5 


81.1 


4,175 


2 


1,865 


3,736 


4,709 


1984/85 


723 


71.9 


106.7 


7,674 


3 


1,838 


4,117 


5,182 


1985/86 


1,381 


75. 1 


118.0 


8,865 


2 


1,525 


4,100 


5,220 


1986/87 


3,503 












Sorghum 


















1975/76 


35 


15.4 


49.0 


754 


— 


229 


502 


509 


1976/77 


51 


14.5 


49.0 


711 




246 


419 


425 


1977/78 


91 


13 .8 


56.6 


781 


- 


213 


456 


468 


1978/79 


191 


13 .4 


54.5 


731 


— 


207 


544 


555 


1979/80 


160 


12.9 


62.6 


807 




325 


483 


496 


1980/81 


146 


12.5 


46.3 


579 




29y 


306 


7 


1981/82 


109 


13.7 


64.0 


876 


- 


249 


429 


440 


1982/83 


296 


14.1 


59.1 


835 


- 


214 


507 


517 


1983/84 


400 


10.0 


48.7 


488 


- 


246 


381 


391 


1984/85 


251 


15.3 


56.4 


866 


- 


299 


527 


547 


1985/86 


271 


16.7 


66.7 


1,113 


- 


250 


575 


595 


1986/87 


539 














Barley 


















1975/76 


92 


8.6 


44.1 


379 


16 


24 


186 


335 


1976/77 


128 


8.4 


45.6 


383 


11 


66 


172 


330 


1977/78 


126 


9.7 


44.0 


428 


9 


57 


177 


333 


1978/79 


173 


9.2 


49.2 


455 


10 


26 


217 


384 


1979/80 


228 


7.5 


50.9 


383 


12 


55 


204 


376 


1980/81 


192 


7.3 


49.7 


361 


10 


77 


174 


349 


1981/82 


137 


9.0 


52.4 


474 


10 


100 


198 


372 


1982/83 


148 


9.0 


57.2 


516 


11 


47 


241 


411 


1983/84 


217 


9.7 


52.3 


509 


7 


92 


283 


452 


■\ f\ a 1 lac 

1984/85 


189 


11 .2 


53 .4 


599 


10 


77 


304 


474 


1985/86 


247 


11.5 


51.0 


589 


7 


25 


300 


470 


1986/87 


349 
















Oats 


















1975/76 


224 


13.0 


49.0 


639 


1 


14 


560 


645 


1976/77 


205 


11.8 


45.9 


540 


2 


10 


490 


573 


1977/ 78 


164 


13.5 


55.6 


753 


2 


12 


509 


594 


1978/79 


313 


11.1 


52 .3 


582 


1 


13 


525 


603 


1979/80 


280 


9.7 


54.4 


527 


1 


4 


492 


568 


1980/81 


236 


8. 7 


53.0 


459 


\ 


1 1 




jOo 


1981/82 


177 


9.4 


54.2 


510 


2 


7 


454 


530 


1982/83 


152 


10,3 


57.8 


593 


4 


3 


441 


326 


1983/84 


220 


9.1 


52,6 


477 


30 


2 


466 


544 


1984/85 


181 


8,2 


58.0 


474 


34 


1 


433 


508 


1985/86 


180 


8.2 


63,6 


519 


25 


2 


475 


355 


1986/87 


167 
















Rye 


















1975/76 


7 


0.7 


22.9 


16 


1 


1 


7 


18 


1976/77 


4 


0,7 


21.4 


15 


- 


- 


5 


15 


1977/78 


4 


0,7 


24.4 


17 


- 


- 


7 


17 


1978/79 


4 


0.9 


26.0 


24 


- 


- 


8 


19 


1979/80 


9 


0.9 


25.7 


22 




2 


7 


17 


1980/81 


12 


0.7 


24.6 


16 


_ 


8 


7 


16 


1981/82 


4 


0.7 


26.6 


18 


- 


2 


8 


18 


1982/83 


3 


0.7 


28.9 


20 


3 




10 


20 


1983/84 


6 


0.9 


30.3 


27 


2 


1 


12 


22 


1984/85 


11 


1.0 


33.0 


32 


1 

X 


1 


14 


24 


1985/86 


20 


0.7 


30.0 


21 


2 


1 


13 


23 


1986/87 


18 
















Notes: Commodity Years 


As Follows; 


June/May-Wheat, Barley, 


Oats and 


Rye; October/ September-Corn and 


Sorghum. 
















"-" Denotes 


zero . 
















Source: World Agricultural Supply 


and Demand 


Estimates No. 


191, March 10, 1986 







25 













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WORLD fcMEAT AND COA'SE GRAINS 
SUPPLY/DH1AND 19i0/61 - 1<>85/?6 
"ILLIONS or f'ET'!IC TO N S / H E C T A S t S 



AiJEA YI:ld production WCLD UTILIZATION ENDING STOCKS AS 

HAPVESTED T> A D E 1/ TOTAL 2/ ST<S 3/ X OF UTIL 

WHEAT 



1 0 A T / A 1 
1 T 0 J / 0 I 


202 


_ 5 


1 


. 1 8 


23 3 


, 4 


41 . 


9 


234 


, 8 


81 


, g 


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7 3 






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2 2 4, 


, 5 


46. 


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236 


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, 2 


29 .7 


1 V 0 t / O J 


C J 0 






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2 51 


_ 3 


44 . 


3 


2 4 8 


, 1 


74 , 


■ 0 


2 9.8 


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1 y 0 i / o *t 


? n A 

C U 0 


■I 
■ J 




.13 


2 33 


, 9 


5 6. 


Q 


240, 


. Q 


67 , 


. 8 


2 8.3 


1^64/65 


215 


_ 9 


1 


. 2 5 


2 70 


, 4 


5 2 . 




262, 


. 0 


76 , 


, 2 


29 . 1 


1 0 A ^ / A A 

1 y 5 > / 0 0 


21 5 




•] 


.22 


263 


, 3 


61 . 


Q 


281, 


i 6 


55, 


. 3 


19.7 


1 0 A A / A7 


213 


. 6 


1 


.44 


3 06 


, 7 


56. 


0 


279 


. 8 


82, 


, 1 


29.4 


i 0 A 7 / A R 


219 


^ 2 


1 


.36 


297 


• 6 


51 . 


0 


2 89 


, 1 


90. 


. 6 


31 .3 


■1 O A S / A 0 


d £ ^ 






.43 


3 Q 


, 5 


4 5. 




306 


, 4 


115 


.0 


37.6 


1 y 0 ▼ / I J 


217 


^ 0 




. 4 2 


310 


i 0 


50. 


n 


327 


.3 


97 


. 9 


30 . 0 


i C 7 1 / 7 1 








. 2 


T 1 3 


, 7 


5 5. 


"5 


337 


. 2 


74 


. 3 


22.0 


■10 71 / 7 5 


' 1 ' 


^ 0 




.65 


351 


. 0 


5 2. 


Q 


344 


, 3 


81 


. 0 


23.5 


1972/73 


21 1 




1 


.63 


343 


.4 


67. 




361 


. 5 


62 


. 6 


17.3 


1573/74 


217 


. 1 


1 


.72 


3'3 


.2 


63. 




365 


. 6 


70 


.2 


19.2 


1 974/75 


220 


. 1 


1 


.64 


360 


. 2 


64. 


3 


366 


. 6 


63 


. 7 


17.4 


1975/76 


225 


• 


1 


. 5 ? 


356 


. 6 


66 . 


7 


3 5 6 


. 3 


6 4 




15.0 


1 976/77 


233 


. 2 


1 


. 31 


421 


. 4 


63 . 


3 


3 55 


. 9 


99 


• 3 


26.2 


1 977/7^ 


227 


. 1 


1 


.69 


384 


. 1 


72 . 


8 


399 


. 4 


34 


. 2 


2 0.8 


1 575/79 


22 3 


. 9 


1 


.95 


44 6 


. 3 


7 2. 


- 


4 30 


. 2 


1 00 


. 9 


23.9 


1 979/80 


22« 


.3 


1 


. 86 


424 


• - 


86 . 


0 


444 


• ' 


81 


. 0 


18.4 


1930/81 


237 


.0 


1 


. 37 


442 


. 9 


94 . 


1 


44 5 


. 7 


78 


. 2 


17.6 


1931/32 


23 3 


. 7 


1 


. 6 3 


44 8 


. 4 


101. 


3 


441 


• - 


3 5 


, 0 


19.4 


1932/33 


237 


• ' 


2 


. 02 


479 


. 1 


9 3. 




46 7 


. 9 


9 6 


. 3 


2 0.9 


1 933/34 


225 


. 1 


^ 


. 1 4 


490 


. 9 


101 . 


9 


4 5 6 


. 3 


1 01 


. 0 


21.0 


1934/35 4/ 


231 


■ f 


2 


. 23 


51 4 




106. 


4 


4 9 5 


. 6 


116 


. C 


23.4 


1935/36 5/ 


229 


. 2 


2 


. 20 


503 


. 2 


89 . 


0 


4 0 'I 


. 4 


123 


. 9 


26.2 






























1 '60/ 61 


32 4 


, 4 


1 


. 32 


447 


. 9 


24 . 


0 


437 


_ 2 


109 


. 7 


2 5.1 


19 61/62 


3 2 2 




1 


. 3 5 


434 


, 2 


30 . 


Q 


449 


. 3 


94 


, 7 


21.1 


1962/63 


320 


, 0 


■) 


• 4 3 


4 5 9 


_ 5 


31 . 


Q 


461 


. 5 


92 


, 7 


20.1 


1963/64 


32 4 




1 


.44 


4 67 


. 8 


34 . 


0 


4 6 2 


• 6 


97 


, c 


21.2 


1964/65 


^21 


^ R 




.47 


473 


, •) 


35. 


r, 


4 80 


. 0 


91 




18.9 


19 65/66 


3 2 0 






.51 


4 84 


, 7 


4 2. 


0 


500 


. 5 


75 


. 1 


15.0 


1 966/67 


321 


. c 


1 


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5 20 


, 4 


40 . 




51 5 


. 5 


75 


, 1 


14.7 


1^67/63 


3 2 6 




1 


■ 69 






39 . 




541 


. 6 


85 


. 3 


15.7 


1 0 ^ fl / 0 

I y 3 5 / 0 ▼ 


^ 


c 


•\ 




^ ^ 

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T 7 


T 

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5 4 3 


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91 
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. u 


1 A 4 

1 0 . H 




3 3" 






• 74 


57 5 




39 . 


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575 


^ 4 


90 


_ 2 


15.7 


1 570 / 71 


3 31 


^ 7 




.74 


57 5 


^ 2 


46 . 




5 9 2 


. 2 


73 


. 2 


12.4 


1071 / 7 ? 




• 3 


1 




A 7 0 

0-7 




4 9 


7 


" 1 J 


4 


8 7 




14 7 


1972/73 


325 


. 7 


1 


. 37 


607 


m 5 


59. 


2 


62'. 


. 8 


69 


. 9 


11.2 


1973/74 


344 


.1 


1 


.95 


671 


, 3 


71 . 


0 


6"'4 


, 9 


65 


.8 


9.7 


1974/75 


341 


. ? 


1 


0 z 


631 


.2 


65. 


r 


634 


. 4 


61 


_ n 


9.6 


1 975/76 


345 


T 


1 


.85 


646 


.1 


75. 


2 


646 


. 2 


53 


.6 


9.1 


1 976/77 


34'. 


.7 


2 


. 04 


704 


. s 


53. 


5 


68 = 


. 4 


78 


.2 


11.4 


1 977/73 


346 


.4 


2 


.03 


701 


.6 


58. 


s 


693 


. ^ 


86 


, 7 


12.5 


1978/79 


343 


• ? 


2 


.20 


755 


.1 


92. 


7 


749 


. 4 


92 


. 2 


12.3 


1 979/30 


343 


, 2 


2 


. 1 7 


743 


. 9 


99. 


2 


743 


^ 7 


52 


.8 


12.4 


1 930/31 


342 


.4 


2 


.14 


732 


. 9 


108. 


0 


743 


. 3 


32 


. 9 


11.3 


1931/32 


350 


, ? 


2 


. 20 


'69 


• 9 


96. 




739 


. 3 


112 


. 9 


15.2 


1932/33 


33? 


.2 


2 


.30 


779 


. 2 


35. 


9 


753 


. 3 


138 


.6 


15.3 


1933/34 


334 


.3 


2 


.05 


685 


. 4 


92. 


0 


757 


. L. 


66 


. 3 


5.9 


1934/35 4/ 


233 


.7 


2 


.35 


80S 


.2 


1 01 . 


6 


778 


. 4 


96 


. 6 


12.4 


1955/36 5/ 


343 


. 1 


7 


.46 


542 


.7 


92. 


3 


779 


.6 


1 59 


.6 


20.6 


AT AND CCA'SE 


GRAINS 


























1 960/61 


5 2 i 


• 6 


1 


.30 


636 


^ 7 


65 . 


9 


6 7 2 




191 


5 


7ft ^ 
C. ? ■ ^ 


1961/6 2 


52 5 


^ a 


1 


■ 2 5 


6 5 5 


^ -! 


76. 


g 


9 ^ 




I 0 *♦ 


9 


5 A 1 


1 962/63 




^ E 




. 3 ^ 


711 


^ 4 


75 


4 


705 


. C 


1 A A 
1 6 0 


. 6 


£ ^ • 5 


1963/64 


5 31 


2 


1 


. 32 


7C1 


, 7 


90 . 


Q 


702 




1 0 _ 


7 


7 7 A 


1964/65 


537 


.7 




. 33 


7 43 


, 5 


57 . 




742 


n 


1 A7 


7 

a C 


7 7 ^ 
£ I. • J 


1955/66 


53 5 


. 6 


1 


.40 


74 8 


. 0 


1 03 . 




7 a 7 








1 A 7 


1 =66/67 


534 


, 7 


1 


. 5 5 


3 27 


, 2 


96. 


0 


799 


^ 7 


1^9 


7 


10 ft 

1 y ■ 0 


1 967/63 


54 5 


. 7 




.55 


8 4 3 


, 4 


BC , 


9 


8 C 




17 5 


9 


71 7 
£ 1 • £ 


1 963/69 


549 


c 


1 


■ 6l 


3 83 




3 2. 




p 5 4 


4 


7 0 ^ 

_ J J 


^, 


7 A P 


1969/70 


5 4 S 


2 




. 62 


335 


. 6 


8 9. 




902 


. £ 


158 


Q 


7 A 0 

£ ' J ■ y 


1 970/71 


53? 






. 65 


868 




101. 


f\ 


92 9 


. 4 


1 47 




15 9 


1 971 /72 


54 5 


.4 




.30 


9 30 


, 1 


101. 


7 


9 c 9 


7 


1 A7 


0 

• 7 


1 f • 3 


1972/73 


536 


. R 


1 


. 77 


951 


, 5 


126. 


2 


9 S6 


. ^ 


13 2 




1 3 • 4 


1973/74 


561 


.2 


1 


.86 


1 044 


. 3 


134. 




1040 


.4 


136 


!o 


13.1 


1974/75 


562 


r> 


1 


.76 


991 


.4 


125. 


7 


1001 


.1 


1 24 


.7 


12. S 


1575/76 


574 


^ 7 


1 


.74 


1002 


. 3 


141 . 


0 


100 2 


.5 


1 22 


. 8 


12.3 


1976/77 


577 


.9 


1 


.95 


1 1 26 


. 2 


147. 


1 


1071 


7 


178 


. 1 


16.7 


1977/73 




c 


1 


.8' 


1 085 


. 3 


161 . 


c 


1092 


. 5 


170 


. 9 


15.6 


1973/79 


572 


'.7 


2 


.10 


1 202 


, n 


1 64. 


7 


1 1 79 


.6 


1 93 


.0 


16.5 


1 979/30 


571 


e 


2 


.04 


1 16? 


.4 


185. 


2 


1 187 


. 6 


173 


.8 


14.7 


1930/31 


579 


.4 


2 


.03 


1175 


. 8 


202 . 


1 


1185 


^ 7 


1 61 


. 0 


13.6 


1531/82 


6 9 5 




2 


.07 


1 2 1 S 


, 3 


198. 


Q 


1131 


.4 


197 


.9 


16.7 


1932/33 


576 


.7 


2 


.18 


1 258 


.4 


138. 


6 


1221 


.4 


234 


. 5 


19. T 


1953/34 


563 


.4 


2 


.09 


1176 


.3 


193. 


5 


1243 




1 67 


. 8 


13.6 


1934/35 4/ 


569 


.9 


2 


.32 


1322 


.3 


207. 


9 


1 277 


.9 


212 


.7 


16.7 


1935/36 5/ 


572 




2 


.35 


1 ■'45 


.3 


181 . 


7 


1 27C 


. C 


288 


. 5 


22.8 



NOTE: "STOCKS AS PERCENT OF UTILIZATION" REPRESENT THE RATIO OF MARKETING YEAR ENDING 
STOCKS TO TOTAL UTILIZATION. 

1/ TRADE DATA AS EXPRESSED IN THIS TA3LE EXCLUDE INTRA-EC TRADE. WHEAT AND COARSE 3RAINS 
ARE ON A JULY/JJNE TRADE YEAR THRCU3H 1575/76. FROM 1976/77 ON/ THE TRADE YEAR FOR 
COARSE GRAINS IS 0 CT 0 8£ R / S E PT E E 0 . 

2/ FOR COUNTRIES FOR WHICH STOCKS DATA ARE NOT AVAILABLE (EXCLUDING THE USSR) UTILIZATION 
ESTIMATES REPRESENT "APPARENT" UTILIZATION/ I.E. INCLUDE ANNUAL STOCK LEVEL ADJUSTMENTS. 

3/ STOCKS DATA ARE 3ASED ON AN AGGREGATE OF DIFFERING LOCAL MARKETING YEARS AND SHOULD NOT 
BE CONSTRUED AS REPRESENTING WORLD STOCK LEVELS AT A FIXED POINT IN TIME. STOCKS DATA 
ARE NOT AVAILABLE FOR ALL COUNTRIES AND EXCLUDE THOSE SUCH AS the PEOPLE'S REPUBLIC OF 
CHINA AND 'ARTS CF EASTERN EUROPE. WORLD STOCK LEVELS HAVE BEEN ADJUSTED ^OR ESTIMATED 
YEAR-TO-YEAR CHANGES IN USSR GRAIN STOCKS/ 5UT DO NOT PURPORT TO INCLUDE THE ABSOLUTE 
LEVEL OF USSR GRAIN STOCKS. 

4/ ORELIMINARY. 

5/ PROJECTION. 

SOURCES: SREPAREO OR ESTIMATED ON THE BASIS OF OFFICIAL STATISTICS OF fqreISN GOVERNMENTS/ 
OTHER FOREIGN SOURCE "ATERIALS/ REPORTS OF U.S. AGRICULTURAL ATTACHES AND FOREIGN SERVICE 
OFFICERS/ RESULTS CF OFFICE RESEARCH AND »ELATED INFORMATION. 

COMMODITY OROGRAMS/ F^S/ US3A GRAIN AND FEED DIVISION 



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29 









EXPORT PRIC 


ES 


FOR A-HZAT 


ANT) 


C0R>: y_\RCH 


19 51-MARC:-: 19 86 










(3AS 


IS 


703, V.S. 


DOLL 


AR5 ?IR >fZT 


RIC ION) 












'rTrZAI 






CORls 








U.S. 


ARC-ZNYINA 




;a::ada 




JSlRAllA 


L . 5 . 


ARGENTINA 






C-VIJ 










' • ■'' ~- — — 
















CVR5 11.3 






■---3 Yellow 




19 51 C Y 




177 


189 




212 




173 


134 


137 


— > w — -w • 




162 


166 




187 




160 


110 


109 


1953 CY 




, '^ 
i- ^ 


138 




185 




161 


137 


133 


1984 CY 




153 


135 




186 




153 


138 


132 


19 55 CY 




138 


108 




178 




140 


113 


102 


" ^ 55 
Xar 




146 


114 




179 




149 


121 


109 


Apr 




146 


113 




181 




148 


122 


110 






137 


112 




180 




145 


118 


109 






1 j- 


107 2/ 




178 




141 


117 


111 


7.. 




- - - 


107 




171 




134 


114 


112 


-■• zr 




124 


98 




163 




128 


103 


101 3/ 


i £ 1? 




115 


93 




165 




131 


103 


88 


Oct 






92 




173 




134 


100 


90 


Nov 




' 1 ~ 


98 




181 




139 


108 


93 


Ziec 




13 9 


114 




184 




144 


111 


100 






133 


108 




182 




140 


109 


100 


04 




130 


102 




178 




133 


107 


97 


11 




132 


102 




176 




133 


106 


97 


18 






102 




176 




132 


106 


87 


23 






102 




178 




133 


103 


86 


Mar 04 




133 


101 




180 




137 


100 


87 


11 




J ^ 


101 




182 




140 


100 


87 


1 S 


C c r £ 


Zxp DT 


L Elevators 














2/ This 


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w 3. 


r.-Feb-Mar 


198o 


delivery . 






3/ This 


and 




prices are fcr 


Ap 


r-May- Jun 


1986 


delivery. 







30 



SELECTED WORLD GRAIN PRICES, CIF ROTTERDAM 1/ 
Wheat Marketing Years 1970/71 - 1985/86 







(In U.S. dollars ner 


metric ton) 








Wheat 




Corn 






11 S- No -2 Dark 


Can a d 1 an 


II S. No -3 






Northern Spring 


Western Red 


Yellow 






14% 


Spring 13 1/2% 


Corn 


1970/71 


(July- June) 


73.70 


74.15 2/ 


69.10 


1971/72 


(July- June) 


69.75 


72.45 


57.00 


1972/73 


(July-June) 


100.15 


101.95 


77.10 


1973/74 


(July— June) 


202.95 


214.40 


132.90 


1974/75 


(July— June) 


204,25 


209.70 


144.80 


1975/76 


(July— June) 


186.86 


195.85 


128.80 


1976/77 


(June— May ) 


147.05 


149.55 


122.00 


1977/78 


( June— Mav ) 


131.30 


140.85 


105.80 


1978/79 


(June— Mav) 


153.70 


165.20 


116.60 


1979/80 


June— Mav ) 


199.65 


N/A 


138.20 


1980/81 


(June-May) 


218.45 


N/A 


164.15 


1981/82 


Tune— Mav) 


193 .90 


215.30 


135.40 


1982/83 


(June-May) 


178.45 


198.85 


125.25 


1983/84 


(June-May) 


186.40 


201.50 


157.90 


1984/85 


(June-May) 


175.69 


180.34 


139.43 


1985/86 










June 




165.80 


183.25 


128.50 


July 




155.90 


166.25 


125.65 


Aug 




148.00 


156.63 


114.75 


Sep 




155.75 


159.75 3/ 


113.40 


Oct 




168.20 


184.10 


111.40 


Nov 




177.10 


189.30 


118.25 


Dec 




177.67 


N.Q. 


119.25 






176 .25 


N.Q. 


119.25 


Fph 04 




174 00 

X. 1 ^ % \J\J 


N.Q . 


117.00 


11 




174.50 


N.Q. 


117.00 


18 




174 .00 


N.Q . 


116.50 


25 




174.50 


N.Q. 


116.00 


Mar 04 




176.50 


N.Q. 


109.50 


11 




160.50 


N.Q. 


111.50 



T7 Asking prices for Rotterdam 30-day delivery, as shown by Hamburg 
Mercantile Exchange. 

Ij Prior to September 1971 prices for No. 2 Manitoba Northern. 
3/ First two weeks only. 



31 




32 



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33 



FOOTNOTES TO WORLD GRAIN SUMMARY AND TRADE TABLES 



1) Includes wheat flour and products. 

2) Argentina, Australia, Canada, South Africa, and Thailand. 

3) Adjusted for transshipment through Canadian ports: excludes products other 
than flour. 

4) Wheat, rye, corn, barley, oats, sorghum, millet, and mixed grains. 

5) Production data includes all harvest occurring within the July- June year 
indicated, except that small grain crops from the early harvesting Northern 
Hemisphere areas are "moved forward;" i.e., the May 1984 harvests in areas 
such as India, North Africa and southern United States are actually 
included in "1984/85" accounting period which begins July 1, 1984, for 
wheat or October 1, 1984, for coarse grains. 

6) "Bunker weight" basis; not discounted for excess moisture and foreign 
material. 

7) Utilization data are based on an aggregate of differing local marketing 
years. For countries for which stocks data are not available (excluding 
the USSR) utilization estimates represent "apparent" utilization; i.e., 
they are inclusive of annual stock level adjustments. 

8) Stocks data are based on aggregate of differing local marketing years and 
should not be construed as representing world stock level at a fixed point 
in time. Stocks data are not available for all countries and exclude those 
such as the People's Republic of China, and parts of Eastern Europe: The 
world stock levels have been adjusted for estimated year-to-year changes in 
the USSR grain stocks, but do not purport to include the entire absolute 
level of USSR stocks. 

9) Inclusive of Soviet stock changes; see footnote 8. 



This circular was prepared by the Grain and Feed Division, Commodity Programs, 
FAS/USDA, Washington, D.C. 20250. Further information may be obtained by 
writing the Division or telephoning (202) 447-2009. 

Note: The previous report in the series was World Grain Situation/Outlook ; 
Foreign Agriculture Circular FG-2-85 February 1986. For further details on 
the world grain production and USSR outlook see "World Crop Production" 
Foreign Agriculture Circular WCP-3-86, March 10, 1986, and "USSR Grain 
Situation and Outlook" Foreign Agriculture Circular SG-3-86, March 1986. 



34 '^'U.S. GOVERNMENT PRINTING OFFICE: 1986-490-917 •■20395-FAS 



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s^^S^ United States 




Department of 
^^^^0/ Agriculture 

Foreign 
Agricultural 
Service 



FG-4-86 

April 1986 



Foreign Agriculture Circular 

Grains 

World Grain Situation and Outlook 



This month's cover graphs illustrate this year's unusually sharp decline in 
world wheat and coarse grain trade, and the associated sharp drop in U.S. 
shipments. Reductions in imports by the USSR and China have been the major 
source of this drop. Although exports for all other non-U. S. origins have 
decreased from 1984/85 levels, U.S. grain exports have taken almost all of the 
decline . 



WORLD WHEAT AND COARSE GRAIN TRADE 

MMT ^- 




Supporting data on page 8. 



Approved by the World Agricultural Outlook Board - USDA 



CONTENTS Page 

World Grain Outlook , 3 

World Wheat Outlook 4 

World Coarse Grain Outlook 3 

World Rice Outlook 7 



TABLES 

World Wheat and Coarse Grain Trade (Cover Data) 8 

World Summary Tables: Wheat and Coarse Grains, Wheat, 

Coarse Grains, Rice, Corn, Sorghum, and Barley 9-15 

World Wheat and Flour Trade 16 

World Coarse Grain Trade 17 

World Rice Trade 18 

European Conmiunity: Grain Supply-Disappearance 19 

Eastern Europe: Grain Supply-Disappearance 20 

USSR and China: Grain Supply-Disappearance 21 

Wheat: Supply-Disappearance for Selected Major Exporters 22 

Coarse Grains: Supply-Disappearance for Selected Major Exporters 23 

U.S.: Wheat and Coarse Grains 24 

U.S.: Wheat, Corn, Sorghum, Barley, Oats and Rye Supply-Disappearance .. 25 

U.S.: Rice Supply-Distribution 26 

World Wheat and Coarse Grain Supply/Demand 27 

World Rice Supply/Demand 28 

World Total Grains Supply/Demand 29 

Weekly Export Prices for Wheat and Corn: U.S., Canada, 

Australia, and Argentina 30 

Selected World Grain Prices, CIF Rotterdam 31 

Footnotes to World Grain Summary Tables 32 



2 



**WORLD GRAIN SITUATION/OUTLOOK** 



Lower world grain prices in 1986/87 continue to be the focus of the current 
world grain situation and outlook. An initial result of this trend may be 
changing differentials between U.S. and foreign grain prices. This type of a 
change is likely to make U.S. grain relatively less expensive and, therefore, 
more competitive. One example of the initial foreign response to lower prices 
is that the Canadian initial wheat payment for 1986/87 will be down 19 percent 
compared to 1985/86. By comparison, however, the U.S. loan rate has fallen 
nearly 27 percent. 

Another response to lower world grain prices could be a sudden surge in 
importer buying activity as new-crop prices become available and importers 
rush to satisfy pent-up demand. In 1985/86, many importing countries have 
continued to defer grain purchases and, therefore, appear to be drawing down 
domestic stocks in order to satisfy demand. This pattern has been attributed 
primarily to lower price expectations for 1986/87. 



Significant developments over the past month include: 

— A large decline in the grain import forecast for the Soviet Union. 
— A sharp decrease in the projected volume of Canadian barley exports. 
— Another cut in the U.S. corn export forecast. 

— Significantly lower expectations for wheat exports from the European 
Community (EC). 

— Sharply lower coarse grain import prospects for several East European 
countries. 

— Another decline in the European Community's corn import forecast. 



3 



**WHEAT** 



The 1985/86 (July- June) world wheat trade forecast, this month, declined a 
million tons to 88 million tons. Forecast wheat trade is at a 6-year low, 
down nearly 18 million tons or approximately 20 percent from last year's 
record trade level. Despite this dramatic fall-off in recent world wheat 
trade, utilization has dropped only about 2 percent. Most of the initial 
drop-off in trade resulted from sharply lower expected Soviet and Chinese 
imports from a year ago, but recent declines in world trade have resulted from 
sluggish sales as importers continue to defer purchases in anticipation of 
lower new-crop prices. 



MAJOR EXPORTING COUNTRIES 

Price expectations have already begun to influence the production plans and 
marketing programs of the major wheat exporters. In Canada, sharply lower 
initial wheat payments for 1986/87 have been announced. Canadian shipments in 
February dropped nearly 20 percent from January levels, but more than 70 
percent of the forecast 17.5 million tons of wheat and products has already 
been shipped. 

The Argentine shipping program is slowing down. Exports through February are 
about 4.7 million tons, 80 percent of the 6.1 million tons forecast for 
July- June 1985/86. The 1985 crop is the smallest in 4 years, some 40 percent 
less than the 3-year average; and this has resulted in a reduced export 
program. The Australian program, on the other hand, has reached record 
monthly levels through most of the winter. For the period July-March, 
Australian shipments equal about 11.5 million tons, just slightly ahead of the 
same period last year when Australia exported a record 15.3 million tons. The 
current Australian July- June 1985/86 export forecast is 15.7 million tons, 
which should result in ending stocks for 1985/86 at 6.6 million tons, down 30 
percent from a year ago. 

This month, the 1985/86 (July/ June) EC wheat export forecast was dropped a 
million tons to 16.5 million tons because of lagging shipments to and limited 
demand from non-EC importers, and increased trade within the Community. For 
the first 6 months of 1985/86, EC wheat exports to non-EC countries lag behind 
last year by about 30 percent. French wheat exports to other EC countries, 
for the first seven months of the July- June 1985/86 year, are more than 5 
million tons compared to about 4 million tons for the same period last year. 
French exports to non-EC countries, however, are only 5 million tons, about 20 
percent below last year. 



4 



i 



MAJOR IMPORTING COUNTRIES 



Wheat imports have declined sharply in Iran , Irag , and several other 
countries; shipments from Canada and the United States, through February, are 
lagging last year by 30 percent and are significantly less than had been 
forecast earlier. As a whole, countries appear to be deferring purchases 
until lower new-crop prices are available. Soviet buying, which appeared 
strong last month, came to a sudden stop. This month, the USSR July- June 
1985/86 wheat import forecast was cut a million tons to 17 million tons. A 
number of factors including a much improved 1985 crop, and anticipation of 
lower prices may be causing the sluggish buying. 

U.S. TRADE PROSPECTS 

The July- June 1985/86 U.S. wheat export forecast remains unchanged at 26 
million tons, the lowest level in 15 years. Shipments continue to lag behind 
last year by more than 50 percent. Hit particularly hard are exports to the 
Soviet Union, China, and Bangladesh. Total U.S. commitments (sales and 
shipments) through March are about 22.6 million tons, or almost 90 percent of 
the current forecast. There are, however, indications that U.S. new-crop 
wheat prices are becoming more competitive. 



**COARSE GRAINS** 



This month, the impact of lower new-crop prices became more apparent as 
lagging import demand resulted in another significant decline in the 1986/87 
world coarse grain trade forecast. U.S. corn and Canadian barley export 
prospects continued to fall, while stagnant demand is particularly evident in 
Europe and the Soviet Union. The further decline in world coarse grain trade 
combined with record 1985 production has resulted in record ending stocks 
which are nearly 70 percent above last year. That stock build-up is 
concentrated in the United States, where volumes are expected to reach nearly 
3 times the 1984/85 level. 



MAJOR IMPORTING COUNTRIES 

The forecast for world coarse grain trade fell nearly 3 million tons to only 
89.7 million, due primarily to expectations of lower import demand in the 
Soviet Union, East and West Europe, and Venezuela. Extremely sluggish buying 
by the Soviet Union may reflect lower feed use of grain following a mild 
winter, an improved 1985 crop, and increased oilseeds imports. The Soviets 
also may be delaying purchases until lower world grain prices are available. 
Lagging Soviet purchases of corn, sorghum, and barley would indicate lower 
demand for each of the coarse grains; thus the 2 million ton decline in the 
Soviet import forecast was divided about evenly between all three. 



5 



The East European October-September 1985/86 barley import forecast is 2.6 
million tons, half-a-million tons less than last month. Slow shipments, 
particularly from the EC and Canada, may indicate currency limitations, a 
stocks drawdown, and/or the deferment of purchases in anticipation of lower 
prices. In the European Community , sharply lower purchases of U.S. corn, 
imply that the demand for imported corn may be down sharply from last year. 
The EC corn import forecast was cut 500,000 tons to 2.5 million tons, nearly 
40 percent below last year's level. Higher levy barriers on imported com vis 
a vis lower-priced, large French corn supplies and increasing substitution of 
wheat for corn among starch producers continues to erode EC dependence on U.S. 
corn exports. 

The coarse grain import forecast for Venezuela was cut significantly because 
of lagging corn and sorghum shipments. U.S. coarse grain commitments to 
Venezuela are less than a quarter of last year's at this time, and no sales of 
corn have been booked through February. 

Although the Japanese coarse grain forecast remains virtually unchanged at 21 
million tons, it appears that Japan may import a larger amount of sorghum and 
less corn than was earlier anticipated. Historically, the Japanese have 
reduced sorghum imports when Argentina experienced a short crop. However, 
this year despite a short Argentine crop, reduced Soviet purchases will mean 
more sorghum, than earlier forecast, available for export to Japan. Japanese 
purchases of Argentine sorghum may already be as high as 800,000 tons. 

MAJOR EXPORTING COUNTRIES 

Another month of lagging shipments and few reports of new sales have meant 
lowered prospects for major coarse grain exporting countries, particularly for 
the United States and Canada. Canadian barley shipments through February are 
about 1.2 million tons, well behind last year at this time and only about 30 
percent of the current forecast. The current October-September 1985/86 
forecast of 3.5 million tons assumes that shipments during the second half of 
the year will reach approximately 2 million tons; that is just about equal to 
the 5 year average (1980-1984) for April-September. Shipments to the Soviet 
Union and East Germany have been particularly slow; a total of about 100,000 
tons has been shipped to both of these very important Canadian markets. 

On the other hand, Australian barley shipments are very strong and through 
February, are running more than 30 percent ahead of last year. A near-record 
crop, back-to-back with the record 1984 harvest, has resulted in ample 
supplies and apparently considerable pressure to export. Saudi Arabia, the 
world's largest barley importer, has reportedly received 2 million tons in 
October-February, nearly double the 1984/85 volume for the same period. 
Australian sorghum continues to be troubled by dry weather; however, record 
beginning stocks and strong old-crop sales should enable Australia to reach 
the October-September 1985/86 export forecast of about a million tons. 



6 



Argentine sorghum exports have been moving slowly. The 1985 crop is 40 
percent below the recent 5-year average, and projected exports of 2.2 million 
tons for October-September 1985/86 are also at a 5-year low. Current sales of 
about a million tons include large Japanese purchases. The 1985/86 Argentine 
com export forecast remains unchanged at a record 9.5 million tons. With 
roughly half of the exportable supplies already committed, strong Argentine 
sales should continue. 

U.S. TRADE PROSPECTS 

Lagging U.S. corn sales and shipments, nearly 50 percent behind last year, 
contributed to a further 2-million-ton decline in the U.S. corn export 
fore.cast. The 36.8 million tons forecast represents the lowest trade level in 
more than 10 years. The lagging commitments are attributed to the record 
Argentine crop and further deferment of purchases in light of snarply lower 
U.S. new-crop prices. 

**RICE** 



The forecast for world rice trade in CY1986 remained essentially the same this 
month, at 11.7 million tons. No major changes were made in the estimates for 
exporting countries, and only the estimate for Vietnam was changed on the 
import side. 

World trading activity has been slow in the first quarter of 1986, probably 
because of weak demand which may be due to buyer hopes for lower world 
prices. However, actual shipments from some of the major competitor countries 
are ahead of the volume moved in the first quarter of last year. Exports from 
Thailand are up five percent from the first quarter of 1985, reports from 
Burma indicate sales have already reached 460,000 tons, while exports and 
sales from Pakistan appear substantially ahead of last year for the same 
period. However, with the exception of Basmati rice from Pakistan, a high 
percentage of the volume moved from all three exporters are destined for low 
quality markets. 

The CY 1986 production estimate increased slightly this month to 463.3 million 
tons. The change was due to increases in the estimates for Indonesia and 
Burma, which offset a decrease in the estimate for Pakistan. 

Major Importers 

Imports by Vietnam are now forecast to reach 500,000 tons in CY1986, due to 
lower production and indications they will import to fill the shortfall. It 
is estimated that Vietnam already has commitments to import 360,000 tons 
(including 260,000 tons purchased by the USSR). The CY1986 import estimate 
for Brazil remains at 800,000 tons, despite a cessation in buying during the 
past month caused by a government currency reform action. 

Major Exporters 

There were no changes in the estimates of the major exporters this month. 
Thailand moved a record monthly quantity of rice in March, exporting over 
600,000 tons. 



7 



WORLD WHEAT AND COARSE GRAIN TRADE 







WORLD 


IMPORTS 




ALL 








WORLD 


LESS 


U.S. 


NON-U . S . 


PRC 


USSR 


YEAR 


IMPORTS 


USSR 


& PRC 


EXPORTS 


EXPORTS 


IMPORTS 


IMPORTS 




































65.9 




62.6 


28.7 


37.2 


2.6 


0.7 


1961/6 


76.8 




70.4 


33.8 


43.0 


6.1 


0.3 




75.4 




70.0 


33.2 


42.2 


5.2 


0.2 


1963/6 


90.0 




74.1 


39.1 


50.9 


6.0 


9.9 




87.0 




79.4 


37.1 


49.9 


5.4 


2.2 


1965/6 


103.0 




88.1 


48.8 


54.2 


6.3 


8.6 




96.0 




87.6 


40.9 


55.1 


5.1 


3.3 


1967/6 


89.9 




83.7 


39.9 


50.0 


4.3 


1.9 




82.0 




77.8 


30.7 


51.3 


3.5 


0.7 


1969/7 


89.1 




82.7 


35.7 


53.4 


5.1 


1.3 




101.0 




96.5 


39.3 


61.7 


3.7 


0.8 


1971/7 


101.3 




90.1 


37.7 


63.6 


3.4 


7.8 




126.2 




97.5 


67.4 


58.8 


6.2 


22.5 


1973/7 


134.0 




115.3 


75.7 


58.3 


7.7 


11.0 




129.3 




117.9 


62.6 


66.7 


6.2 


5.2 


1975/7 


141.9 




114.0 


78.0 


63.9 


2.2 


25.7 




147.1 




133.6 


77.0 


70.1 


3.2 


10.3 


1311/1 


161.6 




134.5 


87.5 


74.1 


8.7 


18.4 




164.7 




138.5 


92.2 


72.5 


11.1 


15.1 


1979/8 


185.2 




148.5 


108.6 


76.6 


10.8 


25.9 




202.1 




148.0 


111.5 


90.6 


14.6 


39.5 


1981/8 


197.9 




143.3 


107.2 


90.7 


14.7 


39.9 




188.3 




141.6 


93.9 


94.4 


15.5 


31.2 


1983/8 


193.8 




151.6 


94.7 


99.1 


9.8 


32.4 




207.7 




144.8 


93.6 


114.1 


7.5 


55.4 


1985/8 


177.8 




140.5 


70.0 


107.8 


6.3 


31.0 



8 



TOTAL WHEAT AND COARSE GRAINS 
TRADE YEARS* 1981/82 - 1985/86 
(IN MILLIONS OF METRIC TONS) 



1981/82 



1982/83 



1983/84 



1984/85 



1985/86 
MAR11 



1985/86 
APR11 



EXPORTS 1) 



SELECTED EXPORTERS 2) 

WEST EUROPE 

USSR 

OTHERS 


61 .7 
21.2 
0.5 
7.2 


61 .3 
22.6 
0.5 
10.0 


67.3 
22.3 
0.5 
9.0 


68.0 
29.6 
1.0 
15.5 


67.8 
28.4 
1.0 
12.3 


66.8 
27.5 
1.0 
12.5 


TOTAL NON-US 


90.7 


94.6 


99.3 


114.2 


109.6 


107.9 


U.S. 3) 


1 07. 2 


93.9 


94.7 


93.6 


71 .9 


70.0 


WORLD TOTAL 


1 97. 9 


188.3 


193.8 


207 , 7 


181.5 


177.8 


IMPORTS 
WEST EUROPE 
USSR 
JAPAN 

EAST EUROPE 

CHINA 

OTHERS 


28.0 
39.9 
23.4 
12-4 
14.7 
79.5 


20.9 
31.2 
24.5 
9.4 
15.5 
86.9 


19.2 
32.4 
26.6 
8.0 
9.8 
97.8 


14.5 
55.4 
26.3 
6.0 
7.5 
98.0 


12.2 
34.0 
26.6 
9.5 
6.8 
92.4 


11.7 
31.0 
26.7 
9.1 
6.3 
93.1 


WORLD TOTAL 


197.9 


1 88.3 


193.8 


207.7 


181.5 


177. 8 


PRODUCTION 4) 5) 
SELECTED EXPORTERS 2) 
WEST EUROPE 
USSR 6) 
EAST EUROPE 
CHINA 
OTHERS 


114.0 
148.8 
152.0 
95.1 
140.4 
245.5 


107.0 
161.9 
172.0 
106.7 
150.8 
233.8 


118.4 
154.1 
173.0 
102.5 
174.0 
246.5 


115.3 

A f% A A 

191.1 
159.0 
115.1 
183.3 
250.7 


115.5 
1 76 .9 
177.0 
104.5 
169.9 
261 .8 


115.1 
176.7 
177.0 
1 07.5 
169.9 
261 .4 


TOTAL NON-US 


895.8 


932.3 


973. 5 


1014.4 


1005.5 


10C7. 6 


U.S. 


322.4 


326.0 


203.0 


308.3 


340.3 


340.3 


WORLD TOTAL 


1213.2 


1258.2 


1 176. 5 


1322.7 


1345.8 


1 347 . 9 


UTILIZATION 4) 7) 
WEST EUROPE 
USSR 6) 
CHINA 
OTHERS 


159.3 
200.5 
154.8 
489.0 


157.4 
204.0 
166.4 
500.9 


158.4 
206. 5 
183.4 
517.4 


161 .8 
207.0 
185.1 
528.2 


163.1 
204.0 
171 .9 
535 .1 


162.5 
204.0 
171 .4 
537.0 


TOTAL NON-US 


1003.5 


1028.7 


1065.8 


1082.2 


1074.2 


1075.0 


U.S. 


177.8 


192.5 


178.1 


195.2 


195.8 


196.1 


WORLD TOTAL 


1181 .3 


1221.3 


1243.8 


1277.3 


1270.0 


1271 .1 


END STOCKS 4) 8) 
TOTAL FOREIGN 9) 
USSR: STKS CHG 
U.S. 


98.1 
-4.0 
99.8 


96.2 
-1.0 

138.7 


97.8 
3.0 
69.8 


" — —— —— — 

123.7 
6.0 
89.2 


<M— — — — — M — — — M 

124.0 
5.0 
164.5 


'— — — — — — — — 

123.6 
2.0 
166.2 


WORLD TOTAL 


197.9 


234.9 


167.6 


213.0 


288.5 


289.8 


*: COMBINATION OF JULY/JUNE 
FOR COARSE GRAINS. 


TRADE YEARS 


FOR WHEAT 


AND OCTCBER/SEPTE 


MBER TRADE 


YEARS 




NOTE: FOOTNOTES 1 THROUGH 9 


APPEAR ON LAST PAGE OF 


CIRCULAR. 









SOURCE: PREPARE^ OR ESTIMATED ON THE BASIS OF OFFICIAL STATISTICS OF FOREIGN GOVERNMENTS/ OTHER 
FOREIGN SOURCE MATERIALS/ REPORTS OF U.S. AGRICULTURAL ATTACHES AND FOREIGN SERVICE OFFICERS/ 
RESULTS OF OFFICE RESEARCH/ AND RELATED INFORMATION. 



COMMODITY PROGRAMS/ FAS/ USDA 



9 



WORLD WHEAT AND WHEAT FLOUR S8D TABLE 
JULY/JUNE YEARS 1981/82 - 1985/86 
(IN MILLIONS OF METRIC TONS) 



1981/82 1982/53 1983/84 1984/85 1985/86 1985/86 

HAR11 APR11 



EXPORTS 1) 



CANADA 

AUSTRALIA 

ARGENTINA 


17.6 
11.0 
4.3 


21 .4 
8.1 
7.5 


21.8 
10.6 
9.7 


19.4 
15.3 
8.0 


17.5 
15.7 
6.1 


17.5 
15.7 
6.1 


SUBTOTAL 


32.9 


37.0 


42.0 


42.7 


39.3 


39.3 


EC-10 

USSR 

OTHERS 


15.5 
0.5 
3.6 


15.6 
0.5 
5.6 


15.4 
0.5 
5.2 


17.5 
1 .0 
6.8 


17.5 
1.0 
5.2 


16.5 
1.0 
5.3 


TOTAL NON-US 


52.5 


58.7 


63.1 


68.0 


63.0 


62.1 


U.S. 3) 


48.8 


39.9 


38.9 


38.1 


26.0 


26.0 


WORLD TOTAL 


101 .3 


95. 6 


102.0 


106.1 


89.0 


88.1 


IMPORTS 
EC-10 
USSR 
JAPAN 

EAST EUROPE 

CHINA 

OTHERS 


4.7 
19.5 
5.6 
6.2 
13.2 
52.1 


3.9 
20.2 
5.8 
4.5 
13.0 
51.2 


3.6 
20.5 
5.9 
3.8 
9.6 
58.7 


2.2 
28.1 
5.6 
2.6 
7.4 
60.2 


2.2 
13.0 
5.4 
3.7 
6.5 
53.2 


2.2 
17.0 
5.4 
3.6 
6.0 
53.9 


WORLD TOTAL 


101.3 


98.6 


102.0 


106.1 


89.0 


88.1 


PRODUCTION 5) 
CANADA 
AUSTRALIA 
ARGENTINA 
EC-10 
USSR 6) 
EAST EUROPE 
CHINA 
INDIA 
OTHERS 


24.8 
16.4 
3.3 
54.4 
80.0 
30.6 
59.6 
36.3 
62.2 


26.7 
8.9 
1 5.C 
59.8 
86.0 
34.7 
68.4 
37.5 
66.9 


26.5 
22.0 
12.8 
59.2 
79.0 
35.4 
81 .4 
42.8 
66.0 


21.2 
18.3 
13.2 
76.6 
73.0 
42.1 
87.8 
45.5 
66.5 


23.9 
16.5 
3.5 
66.1 
83.0 
37.4 
86.0 
44.2 
71 .6 


23.9 
16.5 
8.5 
65.9 
83.0 
38.2 
86.0 
44.2 
71 .6 


TOTAL NON-US 


372.6 


403.9 


425.1 


444.1 


437.2 


437.9 


U.S. 


75.8 


75.3 


65.9 


70.6 


66.0 


66.0 


WORLD TOTAL 


448.4 


479.1 


490.9 


514.7 


503.2 


503.8 


UTILIZATION 7) 
U.S. 
USSR 6) 
CHINA 
OTHERS 


23.1 
102.0 

72.8 
243.7 


24.7 
105.7 

81.4 
256.1 


30.2 
97.0 
91.0 
268.1 


31 .4 
96.1 
95.2 
277.0 


29.3 
96.0 
92.5 
272.6 


29.3 
97.0 
92.0 
273.9 


TOTAL NON-US 


418.5 


443 .2 


456.1 


468.3 


461 .1 


462.9 


WORLD TOTAL 

END STOCKS 8) 
TOTAL FOREIGN 9) 
USSR: STKS CHG 
U.S. 


441.5 

53.5 
-3.0 
31 .5 


467.9 

55.0 
0.0 
41 .2 


486. 3 

62.9 
2.0 
38.1 


499.7 

77.2 
4.0 
38.8 


490.4 

77.5 
4.0 
51 .4 


492.1 

76.3 
2.0 
51 .4 


WORLD TOTAL 


85.0 


96.3 


101 .0 


116.0 


1 28.9 


127.7 


NOTE: FOOTNOTES 1 


THROUGH 9 APPEAR 


ON LAST "AGE 


OF CIRCULAR. 









SOURCE: PREPARED OR ESTIMATED ON THE BASIS OF OFFICIAL STATISTICS OF FOREIGN GOVERNMENTS/ OTHER 
FOREIGN SOURCE MATERIALS/ REPORTS OF U.S. AGRICULTURAL ATTACHES AND FOREIGN SERVICE OFFICERS/ 
RESULTS OF OFFICE RESEARCH/ AND RELATED INFORMATION. 

COMMODITY PROGRAMS/ FAS/ USDA 



10 



WORLD COARSE GRAINS SSD TABLE 
OCTOBER/SEPTEf^aER YEARS 1981/82 - 1985/86 
(IN MILLIONS OF METRIC TONS) 



EXPORTS 
CANADA 
AUSTRALIA 
ARGENTINA 
SOUTH AFRICA 
THAILAND 


1981 /82 

7.2 
3.1 
10.3 
4.7 
3.5 


1982/83 

7.1 
1.0 
11.6 
2.3 
2.3 


1 983/34 

5.5 
5.6 
10.9 
0.1 
3.3 


1984/85 

3.3 
7.4 
10.6 
0.6 
3.4 


1985/86 
MAR11 

5.8 
6.0 
11.9 
1 .0 
3.8 


1985/86 
APR11 

4.8 
6.0 
11.9 
1.0 
3.8 


SUBTOTAL 


28.8 


24.3 


25.3 


25.3 


28.5 


27.5 


WEST EUROPE 

CHINA 

OTHERS 


4.7 
0.2 
4.4 


5.2 
0.1 
6.2 


5.4 
0.5 
5.0 


10.5 
5.7 
4.7 


9.5 
4.7 
3.7 


9.6 
4.7 
3.8 


TOTAL NON-U. S. 


35.2 


35.9 


36.2 


46.2 


46.4 


45.7 


U.S. 3) 


53.4 


54.0 


55.6 


55.5 


45.9 


44.0 


WORLD TOTAL 


96.6 

"""""" 


89.9 


91 .9 


101 .6 


92.3 


89.7 

"""" 


IMPORTS 
WEST EUROPE 
USSR 
JAPAN 

EAST EUROPE 

CHINA 

OTHERS 


21 .0 
20.4 
17.9 
6.1 
1.5 
29.7 


15.6 
11.0 
18.7 
4.9 
2.5 
37.1 


13.9 
11.9 
20.7 
4.2 
0.2 
41.0 


10.9 
27.3 
20.7 
3.4 
0.1 
39.2 


8.3 
16.0 
21 .2 
5.8 
0.3 
40.7 


7.8 
14.0 
21.3 
5.4 
0.3 
40.9 


WORLD TOTAL 


96.6 


89.9 


91 .9 


101 .6 


92.3 


89.7 


PRODUCTION 5) 
CANADA 
AUSTRALIA 
ARGENTINA 
SOUTH AFRICA 
THAILAND 
WEST EUROPE 
USSR 6) 
EAST EUROPE 
CHINA 
OTHERS 


26.0 
6.7 
1 8.4 
8.3 
4.7 
87.9 
72.0 
64.5 
80.8 
153.5 


26.5 
3.9 
17.8 
4.5 
3.7 
93.6 
86.0 
72.0 
32.4 
137.9 


20.9 
9.4 
17.4 
5.1 
4.3 
86.1 
99.0 
67.1 
92.6 
146.5 


22.0 
8.7 
18.6 
8.7 
4.7 
103.7 
86.0 
73.0 
95.4 
149.5 


24.5 
8.6 
18.5 
9.5 
5.5 
101 .0 
94.0 
67.1 
83.9 
155.7 


24.5 
8.4 
18.3 
9.5 
5.5 
100.9 
94.0 
69.3 
83.9 
155.5 


TOTAL NON-U. S. 


523.2 


528.4 


548.5 


570.3 


568.3 


569.7 


U.S. 


246.6 


250.7 


137.1 


237.7 


274.3 


274.3 


WORLD TOTAL 


769.8 


779.1 


685.6 


808.0 


842.7 


844.0 


UTILIZATION 7) 
U.S. 

USSR 6) 

CHINA 

OTHERS 


154. 8 
93.5 
81.9 

404.6 


1 67.9 
98.3 
85.0 

402.2 


147. 8 
109.5 
92.4 
407.8 


163.8 
110.9 
89.9 
413.1 


166.6 
108.0 
79.4 
425.6 


166.8 
107.0 
79.4 
425.7 


TOTAL NON-U. S. 


5P5.0 


5S5.5 


609.7 


613.9 


613.1 


612.1 


WORLD TOTAL 


739. 8 


753.4 


757. 5 


777.7 


779.6 


778 . 9 


END STOCKS 3) 
TOTAL FOREIGN 9) 
USSR: STKS CHS 
U.S. 


44-7 
-1.0 

68.2 


41.1 
-1.0 
97.5 


34.9 
1.0 
31 .3 


46.5 
2.0 
50.5 


46.5 
1.0 
113.1 


47.3 
0.0 
114.8 


WORLD TOTAL 


112.9 


133. 6 


66.7 


97.0 


159.6 


162.1 


NOTE: FOOTNOTES 1 


THROUGH 9 APPEAR ON 


LAST PAGE OF 


CIRCULAR. 









SOURCE: PREPARED OR ESTIMATED ON THE BASIS OF OFFICIAL STATISTICS OF FOREIGN GOVERNMENTS/ OTHER 
FOREIGN SOURCE MATERIALS/ REPORTS OF U.S. AGRICULTURAL ATTACHES AND FOREIGN SERVICE OFFICERS/ 
RESULTS OF OFFICE RESEARCH/ AND RELATED INFORMATION. 

COMMODITY PROGRAMS/ FAS/ USDA. 



11 



WORLD RICE SSD TABLE 
TRADEr PRODUCTION/ UTILIZATION AND STOCKS 1) 
(IN MILLIONS OF ^«ETRIC TONS) 



EXPORTS 2) 
BURMA 
CHINA 
J APAN 
PAKISTAN 
THAILAND 
OTHERS 


CAL YR 
1932 

0.7 
0.5 
0.3 
0. ? 
3.6 
3.4 


CAL YR 
1983 

0.3 
0.6 
0.3 
1.3 
3.7 
2.9 


CAL YR 

1984 

0.7 
1.2 
0.1 
1.0 
4.5 
2.9 


CAL YR 
1935 

0.4 
1.0 
0.0 
1 .0 
4.0 
3.1 


CAL 1986 
MAR11 

0.5 
0.9 
0.0 
0.9 
4.3 
3.3 


CAL 198< 
APR11 

0.5 
0.9 
0.0 
0.9 
4.3 
3.2 


TOTAL NON-US 


9.3 


9.6 


10.4 


9.5 


9.9 


9.8 


U.S. 


2.5 


2.3 


2.1 


1.9 


1.8 


1.8 


WORLD TOTAL 


11.9 


11.9 


12.6 


11 .4 


11.7 


11.6 


IMPORTS 2) 
EC-10 
INDONESIA 
IRAN 
IRAQ 

KOREA/ REP. 
NIGERIA 
SAUDI ARABIA 
OTHERS 


1.2 
0.3 
0.6 
0.4 
0.2 
0.7 
0.5 
3.0 


1.0 
1.2 
0.7 
0.5 
0.2 
0.7 
C.5 
7.2 


1.1 
0.4 
0.7 
0.5 
0.0 
0.4 
0.5 
8.9 


1.1 

CO 
0.6 
0.5 
G.O 
0.5 
0.5 
8.2 


1.2 
0.0 
0.8 
0.5 
O.C 
0.5 
0.5 
8.1 


1.2 
0.0 
0.8 
0.5 
0.0 
0.5 
0.5 
8.0 


WORLD TOTAL 


11.8 


11.9 


12.6 


11.4 


11.7 


11.6 


PRODUCTION 3) 
ARGENTINA 
AUSTRALIA 
BANGLADESH 
BRAZIL 
BURMA 
CHINA 
EC-10 
INDIA 
INDONESIA 
JAPAN 

KOREA/ REP. 
PAKISTAN 
THAILAND 
OTHERS 


1981/e2 

0.4 
0.9 
20.5 
9.2 
14.1 
1 44. 0 
1.1 
80.0 
32.8 
12.8 
7.1 
5.1 
17.3 
58.8 


1982/83 

0.3 

0.5 
21.3 

7.8 
14.4 
161.2 

1 .1 
70.7 
33.6 
12.8 

7.3 

5.2 
16.9 
59.4 


1983/84 

0.5 

0.6 
21 .8 

9.0 
14.4 
168.9 

1.1' 
90.2 
35.3 
13.0 

7.6 

5.0 
19.5 
61 .4 


1984/85 

0.4 

0.9 
21.9 

9.0 
14.8 
178.3 

1.1 
88. C 
38.1 
14.8 

8.0 

5.C 
13.7 
62.7 


1985/86 

0.4 
0.7 

23.1 
8.8 
14.5 
1 67.0 
1.3 
91.5 
38.7 
14.6 
7.9 
4.8 
19.8 
63.3 


1985/86 

0.4 
0.7 
23.1 
8.8 
14.9 
1 67.0 
1 .3 
91.5 
39.0 
14.6 
7.9 
4.4 
19. S 
63.8 


TOTAL NON-US 


404.4 


412.6 


44S.2 


461 .7 


456.8 


457.1 


U.S. 


8. 3 


7.0 


4.5 


6.3 


6.2 


6.2 


WORLD TOTAL 


41 2.7 


41 9.5 


452.7 


468.0 


462.9 


463.3 


UTILIZATION 7) 
BANGLADESH 
CHINA 
INDIA 
INDONESIA 
KOREA/ RE*. 
OTHERS 


14.1 
100.5 
54;1 
22.3 
5.4 
82.8 


14.6 
112.4 
4d.5 
23.7 
5.3 
S3. 2 


14.9 
117.1 
58.2 
25. 3 
5.5 
35.2 


14.9 
123.9 
57.0 
25.2 
5.5 
85.6 


15.8 
116.1 
60.3 
26.0 
5.6 
37.6 


15.8 
116.1 
60.3 
26.2 
5.6 
87,3 


TOTAL NON-US 


279.2 


287.6 


306.3 


312.1 


311 .4 


311 .4 


U.S. 


2.2 


2.0 


1.8 


1.9 


1.9 


1.9 


WORLD TOTAL 


281.5 


239. 6 


303. 1 


314.0 


313.3 


313.3 


END STOCKS 4) 
BANGLADESH 
INDIA 
INDONESIA 

THAILAND 
OTHERS 


0.3 
5 . 0 
2.3 

1.3 
9.3 


0.3 
3.5 
1.8 

0.8 
7.2 


0.1 
6.0 
1.6 

1 T 
1 ■ J 

1.1 
5.7 


0.5 
7.5 
2.8 

1 L 

1.3 
6.4 


0.3 
8.0 
2.7 

1 ■ 9 

1.7 

6.8 


0.3 
8.0 
2.7 

1 a J 

1 .7 
6.9 


TOTAL FOREIGN 


19.7 


15.0 


15.3 


19.8 


20.9 


21 .1 


U.S. 


1.6 


2.3 


1.5 


2.1 


2.8 


2.8 


WORLD TOTAL 


21.3 


17.3 


17.3 


21.9 


23.7 


23.9 



1) PRODUCTION IS ON ROUGH =ASIS; TPADE/ UTILIZATION AND STOCKS ARE ON "ILLED BASIS. 

2) TRADE DATA ON CALENDAR YEAR BASIS. 

3) THE WO^LD RICE HARVEST STRETCHES OVER 6-8 fOSTHS. THUS/ 1973/79 PRODUCTION PEPRESFNTS THE CROP 
HARVESTED IN LATE 1973 AND EARLY 1979 IN THE NORTHERN HEMISPHERE AND THE CROP HARVESTED IN 
EARLY 1979 IN THE SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE. 

4) STOCKS DATA ARE ?ASED ON AN AGGREGATE OF DIFFERENT LOCAL MARKETING YEARS AND SHOULD 

NOT BE CONSTRUED AS REPRESENTING WORLD STOCK LEVFLS AT A FIXED POINT IK TIME. STOCKS DATA 
APE NOT AVAILABLE FOR ALL COUNTRIES AND EXCLUDE THOSE SUCH AS NORTH KOREA AND CHINA. 

SOURCE: PREPARED OR ESTIMATED ON THE BASIS OF OFFICIAL STATISTICS OF FOREIGN GOVERNMENTS/ OTHER 
FOREIGN SOURCE MATERIALS/ REPORTS OF U.S. AGRICULTURAL ATTACHES AND FOREIGN SERVICE OFFICERS/ 
RESULTS OF OFFICE RESEARCH/ AND RELATED INFORMATION. 

COMMODITY PROGRAMS/ FAS/ USDA 



12 



WORLD CORN S&D TABLE 
OCTOBER/SEPTEMBER YEARS 1981/82 - 1985/36 
(IN MILLIONS OF METRIC TONS) 



1981/82 1932/83 1983/84 1984/85 1985/86 1985/86 

MAR11 APR11 

EXPORTS 



ARGENTINA 
SOUTH AFRICA 
THAILAND 
CHINA 
OTHERS 


4.9 
4.7 
3.3 
0.1 
4.3 


6.5 
2.3 
2.1 
0.0 
5.0 


5.9 
0.1 
3.0 
0.4 
3.7 


7.1 
0.5 
3.0 
5.2 
3.8 


9.5 
0.9 
3.5 
4.2 
3.3 


9.5 
0.9 
3.5 
4.2 
3.4 


TOTAL NON-U. S. 


17.3 


15.9 


13.1 


19.6 


21 .4 


21.5 


U.S. 3> 


50.0 


47.5 


47.4 


46.7 


38.7 


36.8 


WORLD TOTAL 


67.3 


63.4 


60.5 


66.3 


60.2 


58.4 


IMPORTS 
MEXICO 
EC-10 
USSR 
JAPAN 

EAST EUROPE 

CHINA 

TAIWAN 

KOREA/ REP. 

SPAIN 

PORTUGAL 

OTHERS 


0.6 
7.6 
13.4 
13.3 
4.8 
1.2 
2.6 
2.8 
5.6 
2.2 
13.3 


4.0 
5.3 
6.5 

14.5 
3.3 
2.4 
3.2 
3.9 
4.0 
2.2 

14.1 


2.5 
4.3 
9.5 

14.5 
1.9 
0.1 
3.0 
3.3 
3.5 
2.1 

15.9 


1 .7 
3.9 
20.3 
14.0 
1.5 
0.1 
3.1 
3.0 
3.5 
1.8 
13.5 


2.7 
3.0 
12.0 
15.0 
2.5 
0.2 
3.2 
3.5 
2.5 
1.2 
14.4 


2.7 
2.5 
11.4 
14.3 
2.6 
0.2 
3.2 
3.6 
2.5 
1.2 
14.0 


WORLD TOTAL 


67.3 


63.4 


60.5 


66.3 


60.2 


58.4 


PRODUCTION 5) 
BRAZIL 
MEXICO 
ARGENTINA 
SOUTH AFRICA 
THAILAND 
EC-10 
USSR 6) 
EAST EUROPE 
CHINA 
OTHERS 


22.9 
12.5 
9.6 
8.4 
4.3 
18.4 
8.0 
32.2 
59.2 
57.7 


19.5 
7.0 
9.0 
4.1 
3.4 
19.8 
13.5 
36.5 
60.3 
56.2 


21.0 
9.3 
9.2 
4.4 
3.9 
19.6 
12.0 
33.4 
63.2 
59.0 


22.0 
9.9 
11.5 
7.8 
4.3 
2C.2 
12.5 
35.7 
73.4 
65.0 


19.0 
10.0 
13.0 
8.5 
5.1 
21 .6 
12.5 
31 .3 
64.0 
67.3 


19.0 
10.0 
13.0 
8.5 
5.1 
21 .6 
13.5 
34.0 
64.0 
67.0 


TOTAL NON-U. S. 


233.2 


229.3 


240.0 


262.4 


252.9 


255.8 


U.S. 


206.2 


209.2 


106.0 


194.9 


225 .2 


225 .2 


WORLD TOTAL 


439.5 


433.5 


346.1 


457.3 


478.1 


480.9 


UTILIZATION 7) 
WEST EUROPE 
USSR 6) 
JAPAN 
CHINA 
OTHERS 


39.7 
25.3 
13.6 
60.2 
146.9 


37.2 
19.8 
14.2 
62.8 
1 47.1 


35.0 
20.7 
14.5 
67.9 
151 .7 


32.8 
32.8 
14.2 
68.3 
156.3 


33.2 
23.6 
14.3 
60.0 
159.9 


32.9 
23.5 
14.3 
60.0 
160.8 


TOTAL NON-U. S. 


285.6 


2 31.2 


289.8 


^ "J " • 7 


291.0 


291.5 


U.S. 


127.3 


137-7 


119.6 


131.6 


132.6 


132.8 


WORLD TOTAL 


413.0 


41 8.8 


409.4 


436.5 


423.6 


424.3 


END STOCKS 8> 
TOTAL FOREIGN 9) 
U.S. 


21.6 
55.2 


17.3 
79.3 


14.8 
13.4 


18.9 
35.1 


19.6 
89.0 


20.0 
90.6 


WORLD TOTAL 


76.8 


96.5 


33.2 


54.0 


108.6 


110.6 


NOTE: FOOTNOTES 1 


THROUGH 9 APPEAR ON 


LAST PAGE OF 


CIRCULAR. 









SOURCE: PREPARED OR ESTIMATED ON THE BASIS OF OFFICIAL STATISTICS OF FOREIGN GOVERNMENTS/ OTHER 
FOREIGN SOURCE MATERIALS/ REPORTS OF U.S. AGRICULTURAL ATTACHES AND FOREIGN SERVICE OFFICERS/ 
RESULTS OF OFFICE RESEARCH/ AND RELATED INFORMATION. 



COMMODITY PROGRAMS/ FAS/ USDA 



13 



WORLD SORGHUM S80 TABLE 
OCTOBER/SEPTEMBER YEARS 1981/82 - 1985/86 
(IN MILLIONS OF METRIC TONS) 



EXPORTS 
AUSTRALIA 
ARGENTINA 
OTHERS 

TOTAL NON-U. S. 
U.S. 

WORLD TOTAL 

IMPORTS 
USSR 
JAPAN 
MEXICO 
VENEZUELA 
TAIWAN 
KOREA, REP. 
SPAIN 
PORTUGAL 
SAUDI ARA3IA 
ISRAEL 
OTHERS 

WORLD TOTAL 

PRODUCTION 5) 
Al^TRALIA 
ARGENTINA 
SOUTH AFRICA 
THAILAND 
MEXICO 
INDIA 
CHINA 
NIGERIA 
SUDAN 
OTHERS 

TOTAL NON-U. S. 
U.S. 

WORLD TOTAL 

UTILIZATION 7) 
U.S. 

USSR 
CHINA 
MEXICO 
J APAN 
OTHERS 

WORLD TOTAL 

END STOCKS 8) 
TOTAL FOREIGN 
U.S. 

WORLD TOTAL 



1 /ft ? 


1 Q 9 5 / 67 

1 7 9 b f O J 


i oa-T / a A 


1 OS A / S ^ 


1 0 fi ^ / ft A 
17 0 3/ 00 


1 y 0 3 / 0 0 










MAR11 


APR11 


1.2 


0.3 


1.4 


1.2 


1.1 


1.1 


5.2 


4.9 


4.8 


3.4 


2.2 


2.2 


0.9 


1.0 


0.7 


1.2 


1.3 


1.3 


7.4 


6.2 


6.9 


5.8 


4.6 


4.6 


6.3 


5.4 


6.2 


7.6 


6.3 


6.3 


13.7 
========= = 


11.6 
=============== 


13.1 
============ 


13.4 

ssssssssssss 


11.0 

================ 


11.0 

sssssssss 


2.9 


2.3 


1 .9 


1-5 


1.3 


0.6 


3.0 


2.7 


4.2 


4.6 


4.3 


5.0 


0.9 


3.2 


3.3 


2.5 


1.3 


1.3 


0.9 


0.4 


0.2 






1 n 


0.8 


0.6 


0.6 


0.5 


0.6 


0.6 


0.4 


0.2 


0.4 


0.3 


0.3 


0.3 


1.5 


0.3 


0.8 


0.2 


0.2 


0.2 


0.2 


0.2 


0.1 


0.0 


0.0 


0.0 


0.9 


0.6 


0.3 


0.2 


0.3 


0. 3 


0.4 


0.3 


0.6 


0.5 


0.5 


0.5 


1.8 


0.7 


0.8 


2.1 


0.8 


1.0 


13.7 

ssssssssss 


11.6 

=============== 


13.1 

ssssssssssss 


13.4 

ssssssssssss 


11.0 

ssssssssssssssss 


11.0 

sssssssss 


1.3 


1.0 


1-9 


1.4 


1.6 


1.4 


8.0 


7.6 


7-2 


5.9 


4.5 


4.5 


0 . 3 


0.2 


0. 5 


0.6 


0.6 


0.6 


0.3 


0.2 


0.4 


0.4 


0.4 


0.4 


4 . 0 


2 . S 


4.0 


4.1 


4.1 


4-1 


12.1 


10.8 


11.9 


11.3 


10.5 


10.5 


6. 6 


7 . 0 




7-7 


6-5 


6.5 


3.7 


4.1 


2.7 


3.7 


4.0 


4.0 


3.3 


1.9 


1.8 


1.2 


4.5 


4.5 


3.3 


8.3 


7.9 


7.8 


3.7 


8.7 


4S.0 


43.9 


46.5 


44.0 


45.4 


45.2 


22.2 


21.2 


12.4 


22.0 


23.3 


28.3 


70.2 


65.1 


58.9 


66.0 


73.7 


73.5 


11.2 


13.1 


9.9 


13.9 


15.1 


15.1 


3.4 


2.9 


2.0 


1.5 


1.3 


0.9 


6.6 


6.9 


8.3 


7.2 


6.0 


6.0 


6.8 


6.1 


6.3 


6.4 


6.2 


6.2 








L 7 


H . O 


4 9 


34.4 


31 .9 


32.0 


32.0 


33.4 


33.1 


66.0 


63.8 


62.2 


65.7 


66.6 


66.3 


4.8 


3.4 


3.9 


3.8 


3.8 


4.2 


7.5 


10.2 


6.4 


6.9 


13.7 


13.7 


12.3 


13.6 


10.3 


10.6 


17.4 


17.9 



NOTE: FOOTNOTES 1 THROUGH 9 APPEAR ON LAST PAGE OF CIRCULAR. 

SOURCE: PREPARED OR ESTIMATED ON THE 3ASIS OF OFFICIAL STATISTICS OF FOREIGN GOVERNMENTS/ OTHER 
FOREIGN SOURCE MATERIALS/ REPORTS OF U.S. AGRICULTURAL ATTACHES AND FOREIGN SERVICE OFFICERS/ 
RESULTS OF OFFICE RESEARCH/ AND RELATED INFORMATION. 

COMMODITY PROGRAMS/ FAS/ USDA 



WORLD BARLEY S8D TABLE 
OCTOBER/SEPTEMBER YEARS 1981/82 - 1985/86 
(IN MILLIONS OF METRIC TONS) 



EXPORTS 
CANADA 
AUSTRALIA 
EC-10 
OTHERS 


1931/82 

5.5 
1.7 
3.5 
1 .3 


1982/83 

6.1 
0.6 
3.9 
1.9 


1983/84 

4.2 
3.7 
3.S 
1.5 


1984/85 

2.5 
5.6 
7.2 

2.8 


1985/86 
MAR1 1 

4.5 
4.5 
6.5 
2.9 


1985/86 
APR11 

3.5 
4.5 
6.5 
3.1 


TOTAL NON-U. S. 


12.0 


12.5 


13.3 


18.0 


18.4 


17.6 


U.S. 


2.0 


1.0 


2.1 


1.2 


0.8 


0.8 


WORLD TOTAL 


14.1 


13.4 


15.4 


19.2 


19.1 


18.3 


IMPORTS 
EC-10 
USSR 
JAPAN 

EAST EUROPE 
SAUDI ARABIA 
SPAIN 
OTHERS 


0.6 
3.6 
1.5 
1.2 
3.4 
0.7 
3.1 


0.2 
2.2 
1.3 
1.5 
2.5 
1.6 
4.1 


G.5 
0.5 
1.6 
2.0 
5.1 
0. 2 
5.4 


0.1 
4.7 
1.7 
1.7 
5.4 
0.0 
5.6 


0.1 
2.4 
1.5 
3.1 
5.5 
0.0 
6.4 


0.1 
1.8 
1.5 
2.6 
5.5 
0.0 
6.7 


WORLD TOTAL 


14.1 


13.4 


15.4 


19.2 


19.1 


18.3 


PRODUCTION 5) 
CANADA 
AUSTRALIA 
EC-10 
USSR 
CHINA 

EAST EUROPE 
OTHERS 


13.7 
3.4 
39.3 
37.5 
7.5 
16.0 
29.2 


14.0 
1.9 
41 .3 
41 .0 
6.9 
17.4 
30.9 


10.2 
4.9 
36.1 
54.0 
6.9 
15.4 
30.3 


10.3 
5.6 
44.4 
42.1 
5.6 
17.1 
34.2 


12.3 
5.0 
40.6 
43.2 
5.2 
16.8 
36.1 


12.3 
5.0 
40.5 
47.2 
5.2 
16.7 
36.0 


TOTAL NON-U. S. 


146.7 


153.5 


1 57.8 


159.2 


164.1 


162.3 


U.S. 


10.3 


11.2 


11.1 


13.0 


12.8 


12.8 


WORLD TOTAL 


157.0 


164.7 


168.9 


172.2 


176.9 


175.7 


UTILIZATION 7) 
WEST EUROPE 
USSR 

EAST EUROPE 
OTHERS 


48.3 
42.3 
17.0 
40.9 


49.5 
44.0 
17.8 
41.7 


49.1 
53.8 
16.8 
44.8 


50.1 
44.5 
18.3 
40.8 


50.2 
50.5 
19.5 
44.6 


50.0 
49.1 
19.4 
44.2 


TOTAL NON-U. S. 


149.1 


153.0 


164.5 


153.7 


164.7 


162.8 


U.S. 


8.1 


8.9 


9.8 


10.3 


10.2 


10.2 


WORLD TOTAL 


157.2 


162.0 


174.3 


164. C 


175.0 


173.0 


END STOCKS 8) 
TOTAL FOREIGN 
U.S. 


13.7 
3.2 


15.0 
4.7 


10.2 
4. 1 


17.1 
5.4 


16.6 
7.6 


17.6 
7.6 


WORLD TOTAL 


17.0 


19.7 


14.3 


22.5 


24.2 


25.2 


NOTE: FOOTNOTES 1 


THROUGH 9 APPEAR ON 


LAST PAGE OF 


CIRCULAR. 









SOURCE: PREPARED OR ESTIMATED ON THE BASIS OF OFFICIAL STATISTICS OP FOREIGN GOVERNMENTS^- OTHER 
FOREIGN SOURCE MATERIALS/ REPORTS OF U.S. AGRICULTURAL ATTACHES AND FOREIGN SERVICE OFFICERS/ 
RESULTS OF OFFICE RESEARCH/ AND RELATED INFORMATION. 

COMMODITY PROGRAMS/ FAS/ USDA. 



15 









WORLD WHEAT 


AND FLOUR 


T D A n c 

1 M 1/ t 












JULY/JUNE YEARS 1981/82 


- 1985/86 












(IN THOUSANDS 


OF METRIC 


TONSl 










1981/82 


19 32/83 


1983/84 


ITCH/ 0 J 


1 0 8 <; / S A 

1 7 0 J f CO 


1 c e ^ / fi A 














¥ A D 1 1 

r M K 1 I 


A r K 1 1 


t A r w n 1 >J 
















IJNTTFD STATES 




o r f V 


39939 


38860 


•z fi no 5 


5 A nnn 
C c u u u 


c 0 u U U 


r AM A D A 




17618 


21365 


21 765 


1 0 Ann 

1 T H U w 


1 7^00 


1 r 3 u u 


iosCMTTNA 

^ .A \j _ 11 1 1 M 






7501 


9661 


C U J H 


A 1 on 


Ai n n 


AUSTRALIA 




1 003"^ 


3131 


105 86 


\ J C Q ^ 


1 ^700 
1 ? ( u u 


^ ? 7 n n 


EC-10 




1 550C 


1 560C 


1 5400 


1 7^ on 


1 7S00 
1 f ^ u u 


1 A ^ 0 0 

1 0 3 u u 






971 


1 806 


1 525 


I *3 7 V 


118 5 


1 5 A n 

t c c 0 


EAST EUROPE 




1950 


237C 


2255 


4100 


2625 


2625 


USSR 




500 


500 


500 


1000 


1000 


1000 


TURKEY 




337 


573 


600 


517 


400 


400 


OTHER COUNTRIES 




364 


S5 6 


£1 5 


598 


950 


1030 


UORLD TOTAL 




1 0 1 n A 

1 w 1 J w t 


98644 


1 01 970 


1 u 0 1 U c 


8 8 9 A n 

0 C 7 0 U 


8 911^ 

5 0 11? 


T«1PaRTS 
















C V 1 w 




^^7S 


395 0 


3/^00 


5 ? nn 

C C\)\J 


? 5 on 


3 ? n 0 






£ ^ 1 ? 


1301 


176 4 


1 77S 


1 A 5n 

1 C £ u 


1 A T n 

1 0 J 


PAST PUROPF 




9 ^ ^ J 


4523 


3757 


^ C *J ^ 


T7 on 

0 f u u 


T A ? 0 

J C 3 U 


JAPAN 




5 S 77 


5795 


5 85 7 

J W f 


5 ^ n T 


^ i nn 
J H u u 


^ An n 
3 hU 'J 


C H TN A 
V n i 11 ^ 




1 ^ ^ U L 


1 300D 


9600 

7 w w W 


7 Ann 


A^on 
0 J u u 


Annn 


It ? ^ P 




1 9snn 

1 7 J U U 


20200 


20500 


CO 1 U J 


1 K n r 0 
1 ouo u 


1 7nnn 

1 f u u u 


PKYPT 




« O \J u 


5350 


6712 


0 0 u u 


A 7 n n 

0 f 'J u 


A 7 nn 

0 1 'J V, 


A L5 E R T A 
n ^ w c r\ X 




C t T "T 


^ *T ^ 


2 840 


2 Ron 

£ c u u 


5 ^ nn 


3A n n 


MOROCCO 

' 1 W f\ w V V v 




2??8 

C C u 






2 A sn 

J u 


77nn 
c ^ u u 


310 0 


W T 5 F R T A 




1 ^ ^ u 


1500 

I J J \J 


1 w U 


1 7 =;n 


1 ^ nn 


1 ^ n n 

1 3 b u 


TIINT ST A 
1 u '1 1 w 1 n 




W C w 


695 


103 5 


s ^ A 
0 3 0 


^ nn 


c n n 
U L 


1 T P Y A 




J C " 


449 


380 

V w 


hUU 


H V. J 


•fW J 


SUDAN 






448 


450 


Ann 

C U w 


A A^ 


A A ^ 

0 0 3 


MEXICO 




900 


50 


566 


H 7 1 


TOO 


2 2 5 


3 RAZ IL 




4470 


3600 


3943 


5^np 


J u u u 




CHILE 




950 


1 080 


1001 


7sn 


Am 

u u- 'J 


Ann 

0 w -J 


PERU 




961 


1 006 


970 


F63 


9 50 


950 


VENEZU'^LA 




330 


826 


925 


102s 

1 w c u 


1 000 


1000 

1 W W w 


ECUADOR 




31 2 


325 


358 


360 


380 

J V \J 


3 80 

J V \J 


BOLIVIA 




151 


202 


250 


C 0 w 


270 


270 
c f w 


CUBA 




1 500 

1 J \I \J 


1100 


1 300 


1 3 on 


1 ^OD 


1 ^ w u 


C0L0''*9IA 

V V w V 1 ^ A n 




^ 


574 


650 


V U U 


ACO 

www 


AOO 

V U w 


ISRAEL 




450 


625 


500 


700 


A no 

V w u 


AOO 

Www 


JORDAN 




310 


335 


335 


■? 0 


3 9 0 


J y u 


LEBANON 




34 5 

J t J 


373 


375 




■^7 5 


■^75 
J 1 3 


SAIJDT ARAPTA 




W C u 


700 


336 


nn 

w u u 


1 00 
1 u w 


1 nn 


SYRIA 




294 


430 


935 


1 b w w 


9C0 

7 U "J 


90 0 

T U U 


YE^FNr AR 




450 


450 


600 


r 




AOO 

www 


IRAN 

A r\ A 11 




1377 


1 405 


3700 


3200 

^ b U w 


C C W W 


25 00 

b W w 


TRAO 

A i\ n w 




1 W \J VJ 


1800 


3000 


3000 

J U W 


2700 


2 5 0 0 

C ^ L' 'J 


Nl A 1 A Y ^ T A 




^ A A 

J H H 


541 


602 


A AO 

0 H U 


A A R 

0 H -? 


A A 5 

0 M 3 


V T P T W A M 




^ w o 


600 


600 


f no 

c u u 


Ann 

V w U 


AOO 

w U U 


LANGLADE SH 




1111 

1 1 1 1 


1 500 


1 876 


1 898 

1 0 T 0 


1 Ann 


1^00 


INDONCSTA 

A — W X n 




15 29 


1 485 


1587 


1 37 5 


1500 


1350 


P AKI STAN 




400 

"t W W 


580 


366 


1036 


1 6CQ 

1 w u w 


1600 


TURKEY 




748 


50 


350 


1048 


1 oco 

1 w W W 


100'^ 


T N n T A 

X ll L/ X 






3700 


2500 


1 sn 


1 nn 


1 nn 


S R T 1 A fJ It A 




J c ~ 


474 


648 


A ^ n 

C u 


^ sn 


n 


XORFA^ RFP 




1 

i OO G 


188C 


2351 


T1 1 1 


?7nn 

b 1 u u 


c 7 U VJ 


PHILIPPINES 




860 


925 


693 


785 


725 


745 


TAIWAN 




673 


737 


655 


780 


750 


750 


KOREA/ DPR 




398 


200 


500 


550 


5C0 


550 


SINGAPORE 




180 


200 


200 


200 


200 


200 


SUBTOTAL 




92671 


88843 


92900 


96427 


811 50 


78855 


OTHER COUNTRIES 




5 316 


5102 


6153 


7062 


6688 


6676 


UNACCOUNTED 1) 




3317 


4699 


2917 


2613 


1122 


2582 


WORLD TOTAL 




101304 


98644 


101970 


106102 


88960 


8 8115 




_ 














1) THIS REPRESENTS 


EXPORTS 


NOT ACCOUNTED FOR IN REPORTS FROM IMPORTING COUNTRIES. SINCE 


THIS 


IS RECURRING/ IT IS 


TAKEN 


INTO ACCOUNT 


IN THE ASSESSMENT OF THE 


YEAR AHEAD. 







SOURCE: PREPARED OR ESTIMATED ON THE BASIS OF OFFICIAL STATISTICS OF FOREIGN GOVERNMENTS/ OTHER 
FOREIGN SOURCE MATERIALS/ REPORTS OF U.S. AGRICULTURAL ATTACHES AND FOREIGN SERVICE OFFICERS/ 
RESULTS OF OFFICE RESEARCH/ AND RELATED INFORMATION. 



COMMODITY PROGRAMS/ FAS/ USDA 



16 



WORLD COARSE GRAIN TRADE 
OCTOBER/SEPTEMBER YEARS 1981/82 - 1985/86 
(IN THOUSANDS OF METRIC TONS) 





1 y O 1 / OC 


1 y 0 c / o J 


4 ft a 1 / o / 
1 yT3/ 84 


4 O O / /DC 

19 84/85 


4 ft 0 C / G Z 

19 8 5/06 


4 ft 0 c / e z 

1985/86 












u ft n 4 4 

M AR1 1 


APR1 1 


■* \J n /\ PH V A 

:XPORTS 














UNITED STATES 


K a / / t 

5oHH 1 


5 3yy u 


C C 7 O O 

5 5 7 y 8 


c e / o c 
5 549 5 


/ c 0 0 c 

45885 


/ T" ft 0 ft 

43930 


CANADA 


? "5 5 O 

7 dec. 


7 0 7/ 


5 4 8 t 


7 7 n 7 

3307 


c 0 *X ft 

5830 


/ 0 T ft 

4830 


ARGENTINA 


10328 


11624 


10854 


10650 


11865 


11865 


AUSTRALIA 


3075 


979 


5555 


7371 


6025 


6025 


EC-10 


4000 


4290 


4250 


8000 


7000 


7000 


0. W. EUROPE 


720 


945 


1159 


2496 


2510 


2645 


EAST EUROPE 


2148 


3266 


3032 


3010 


2010 


1910 


THAILAND 


3512 


2326 


3333 


3353 


3825 


3825 


SOUTH AFRICA 


4701 


2300 


75 


603 


1000 


1000 


CHINA 


200 


100 


475 


5690 


4700 


4700 


SU3TDT 


y H 3 H 7 




yuu 1 3 


O O Q 7 C 

9 9 y r 5 


Q n ^ c ft 
9 06 50 


87730 


OTHER COUNTRIES 


7 1^ 




4 O 7 7 

19 37 


4 X 7 C 

1675 


4 ^ T ft 

1670 


'I ft 4 C 

1915 


WORLD TOTAL 


96 61 7 


09853 


919 5 0 


4 ft 4 ^ C ft 

1016 5 0 


A A T ^ ft 

9 23 20 


0 ft z ft tr 

8969 5 


u n A V A 

MPORTS 














EC-10 - 


8300 


5650 


C *^ C ft 

575 0 


/ ft ft ft 

4000 


^ A ft ft 

3200 


A ^ A A 

2700 


Om W. EUROPE 


1 2 696 


996 2 


O 4 A A 

8120 


Z ft ft ?P 

6903 


C 4 1? 

5150 


512 6 


EAST EUROPE 


6148 


4 85 2 


/ A 4 O 

4218 


*v y A A 

3422 


5820 


542 0 


J AP AN 


17366 


4 O Z ft ? 

18 693 


A ft ^ A 4 

20721 


A ft ^ 4 Z 

2071 6 


A 4 A ft ft 

2 1 200 


A 4 A Z ft 

21260 


CHINA 


1468 


2548 


A 4 

231 


4 / ft 

140 


A C ft 

2 50 


^ P A 

250 


USSR 


20400 


4 4 ft ft A 

1 1 000 


4 4 ft ft ft 

11900 


A ^ 7 A ft 

27300 


4 Z ft ft ft 

16000 


4 / ft ft ft 
1 4000 


EGYPT 


1350 


4 C 4 Z 

1516 


4 e ft ft 

1500 


4 ^ ft ft 

1700 


4 ft 0 ft 
1900 


4 7 e ft 

1750 


ALGERIA 


C IT Q 

5 5 9 


7 C A 

750 


4 4 / 7 
114 3 


4 4 X O 

1168 


c e ft 
5 9 0 


c 0 ft 

5 9 0 


nO RO C C 0 


/ 7 
tf c r 


1 4 U 


? 7 C 


£4o 


1 C ft 
19 0 


4 fi n 

1 80 


T 1 1 U T C T A 

TUNISIA 


iff 


1 oy 


9 Q A 

c y 0 


0 9 o 

CC7 


5 it c 
t 0 5 


■571? 

C. ( J 


SOUTH ArKiCA 


■1 7 n 

1 i u 


7 it 7 


eyed. 


C A 5 

C 0 c 


■5 n n 
t UU 


ft n 


CANADA 


on/ 


7 c r\ 

7 5 U 


7 4 O 

318 


4 2 5 


7 D ft 

300 


7 ft ft 

300 


M C V T r 1^ 

" C A i C (J 


■1 it T t 

1 0 i J 


7 5 "J 5 
/ C J t 


? Q e; z 

5 0 5 O 


4 c 1 3 


4100 




a a A T T 1 

OKAZ IL 


^ A 0 


115 


C X o 

5 0 0 


/ 7 0 
472 


7 ft ft ft 

3000 


7 ft ft ft 

3 0 0 0 


^ u T 1 e 
CHILE 


Tt /. C 

J H 5 


j4 U 


it i" 
0 0 


c U 


•3 c 
c 5 


IOC 

1 c 5 


n p n 1 1 

PERU 


e c c 

5 5 5 


4 4 6 


/ ^ 7 

467 


7 ft ^ 
302 


ft / ft 
2 4 0 


■5 c e 

2 5 5 


VENEZUELA 


1653 


4 7-40 

1318 


4 ^ ft ft 

1620 


4 Z ft C 

1605 


4 ^ ft ft 

1700 


4 7 ft ft 

1 300 


J AMA I C A 


15 9 


4 Z ^ 

166 


4 ft A 

^ y n 


1 40 


4 / ft 

14 0 


4 / A 

1 40 


CUBA 


475 


465 


/ A A 

429 


C t3 4 

5 31 


F D r\ 

500 


(T ft ft 

500 


C0L0r13IA 


302 


T A / 

304 


4 O 4 

181 


7 A A 

320 


T y A 

340 


7 / ft 

340 


ISRAEL 


1166 


1229 


108 5 


1043 


4 4 4ft 

1110 


4 4 4ft 

1110 


Lc 3AN0N 


216 


225 


4 ^ A 

1^2 


4 ft e 

105 


4 A C 

12 5 


4 ft e 

12 5 


SAUDI ARABIA 


4630 


3450 


5932 


6180 


65C0 


Z ft ft 

65 00 


SYRIA 


27 5 


^ A e 

225 


/AC 

4 2 5 


A T ft 

230 


/ C ft 

450 


/ C ft 

4 5 0 


IRAN 


1030 


1649 


1 275 


1 230 


150G 


1 500 


IRAQ 


425 


489 


605 


825 


550 


550 


MALAYSIA 


794 


945 


1 139 


1205 


1235 


1 235 


INDONESIA 


2 


19S 


66 


49 


70 


60 


^A3CA_ DCO 

NUr<cA/ rcr. 


3 1 4y 


/ 1 / A 
414 6 


/ ft / ft 
4049 


7/^7 

3 46 5 


/ ft X c 

406 5 


/ "5 4 n 
4 210 


PHILIPPINES 


301 


556 


217 


284 


1 25 


0 


TAIWAN 


3871 


4150 


3989 


4164 


4240 


4240 


SINGAPORE 


460 


490 


474 


725 


450 


450 


SUBTOTAL 


92184 


34935 


86101 


9431 9 


85530 


52241 


OTHER COUNTRIES 


3738 


441 3 


5550 


6553 


4872 


5404 


UNACCOUNTED 1) 


695 


505 


299 


778 


1918 


2050 


WORLD TOTAL 


9661 7 


89353 


91950 


101650 


92320 


39695 



1) THIS REPRESENTS EXPORTS NOT ACCOUNTED FOR IN REPORTS FR0^1 IMPORTING COUN'TRIES. SINCE THIS IS 
RECURRING/ IT 13 TAKEN INTO ACCOUNT IN THE ASSESSMENT OF THE YEAR AHEAD. 

SOURCE: PREPARED OR ESTIMATED ON THE BASIS OF OFFICIAL STATISTICS OF FOREIGN GOVERNMENTS/ OTHER 
FOREIGN SOURCE MATERIALS/ REPORTS OF U.S. AGRICULTURAL ATTACHES AND FOREIGN SERVICE OFFICERS 
RESULTS OF OFFICE RESEARCH/ AND RELATED INFORMATION. 



COMMODITY PROGRAMS/ FAS/ USDA 



17 



WORLD RICE TRADE 
CAL YEAR 1982 TO 1986 
(IN THOUSANDS OF METRIC TONS) 







CAL YR 


CAL YR 


CAL YR 


CAL YR 


CAL 1986 

V n to 1 7 w w 


CAL 1986 

V " W 1 7 O W 






1982 


1933 


1984 


1985 

1 7 W J 


M A Q 1 1 


AP R1 1 

n r ^ 1 1 


c A y !a 1 d 
















liN TTPO ^TATPS 




2487 


2331 


2129 


1 906 


1 w U w 


1 O U w 






92 


68 


115 




145 


145 


All P A 1 T A 




w 


281 


"570 


400 

■t w W 


H w w 


u u 


~ U fA rl W 




701 


750 


72 7 


450 


son 




V n i 11 




470 


5 80 


1168 


1 000 

1 V w w 


900 

7 U w 


900 

7 W w 


TATU AN 




307 


5 33 


21 0 


26 


1 00 


100 


g C-1 0 




826 


807 


74 2 


853 


985 

7 "J ^ 


98 5 


PG YPT 




22 


21 


5 0 


20 


50 


50 


GUYANA 




35 


45 


47 


35 


35 


3 5 


INDIA 




633 


200 


200 


200 


200 


200 


INDONESIA 




0 


0 


0 


415 


300 


300 


JAPAN 




318 


321 


102 


0 


0 


0 


<OREA/ DPR 




250 


250 


250 


250 


250 


250 


NEPAL 




50 


0 


20 


50 


25 


25 


PAKISTAN 




794 


1299 


1050 


962 


900 


900 


THAILAND 




3620 


3700 


4528 


3993 


4300 


4300 


URUGU;^Y 




227 


189 


155 


240 


260 


260 


u r PTN A M 
V X u 1 )i ^ n 




1 5 


140 




•iO 




5 n 


SUBTOTAL 

WWW 1 W 1 W 




1 1377 


11515 


1 201 3 


11015 


11200 

1 1 b w w 


11200 

1 1 to W V 


OTHER COUNTRIES 




446 


410 


554 


400 


475 


436 

■f J W 


WORLD TOTAL 


3S 


1 1 823 


1 1 925 


1 2567 


11415 


1 1 675 


11636 


I?1P0RTS 
















BANGLADESH 




296 


82 


588 


275 


200 


200 


BRAZIL 




124 


326 


0 


400 


800 


800 


CANADA 




108 


115 


115 


115 


115 


115 


CHINA 




250 


75 


100 


100 


ICO 


100 


CUBA 




201 


207 


200 


200 


200 


200 


EAST EUROPE 




303 


291 


366 


308 


31 5 


315 


EC-10 




1 1 69 


979 


1105 


1141 


1235 


1249 


INDI A 




10 


31 5 


560 


10 


10 


10 


IRAQ 




369 


474 


490 


475 


550 


550 


IRAN 




587 


680 


730 


600 


750 


750 


IVORY COAST 




357 


434 


368 


250 


250 


250 


<OREAr RE^. 




228 


21 6 


7 


0 


0 


0 


KUWAIT 




64 


55 


80 


90 

7 W 


90 


90 


MALAGASY 




357 


1 85 


99 


1 20 


1 50 


1 50 


MALAYSIA 

1 ( ^ w n 1 ti JL n 




403 


357 


437 


425 


450 


450 


1 1 • A * V V 




1 6 


0 


16 8 


1 68 


50 


50 


NIGERIA 




666 

W W V 


71 1 

lit 


450 


500 


500 


500 


PHILIPPINES 




n 


0 


21 2 


488 


150 


150 


PERU 




58 


101 

1 W 1 


48 


5 


1 50 


150 


PORTUGAL 




110 


30 


105 


80 


100 


100 


SAUDI ARABIA 




471 


491 


530 


500 


5C0 


500 


SENEGAL 




370 


362 


375 


350 


350 


350 


SOUTH AFRICA 




146 


158 


186 


170 


190 


190 


^ 9 r t A NIf A 




?1 7 


1 ^7 




205 


150 


150 


SYRIA 




102 


120 


130 


130 


130 


130 


U.A. EMIRATES 




102 


100 


120 


130 


140 


140 


USSR 




859 


323 


150 


1 50 


1 50 


1 50 


VIETNAM 




1 50 


30 


300 


400 


400 


500 


SUBTOTAL 




8093 


7374 


803 9 


7735 


8175 


8289 


OTHER COUNTRIES 




3211 


3998 


3880 


3033 


3140 


3187 


UNACCOUNTED 1) 




519 


553 


643 


597 


360 


160 


WORLD TOTAL 




11823 


11925 


1 2567 


11415 


11675 


11636 




M S 


ssasassassssss 












1) THIS REPRESENTS 


EXPORTS 


NOT ACCOUNTED 


FOR IN 


REPORTS FROM 


IMPORTING COUNTRIES. SINCE 


THIS 


IS RECURRING IT 


IS TAKEN 


INTO ACCOUNT 


IN THE 


ASSESSMENT OF 


THE YEAR AHEAD. 







SOURCE: PREPARED OR ESTIMATED ON THE BASIS OF OFFICIAL STATISTICS OF FOREIGN GOVERNMENTS/ OTHER 
FOREIGN SOURCE MATERIALS/ REPORTS OF U.S. AGRICULTURAL ATTACHES AND FOREIGN SERVICE OFFICERS/ 
RESULTS OF OFFICE RESEARCH/ AND RELATED INFORMATION. 

COMMODITY PROGRAMS/ FAS/ USDA 



18 





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20 



USSR AND CHINA: GRAIN S & D 
WHEAT AND COARSE GRAINS 
JULY/JUNE YEARS 197F/79 - 1985/86 
MILLION . METRIC TONS /HECTARE S 





AREA 


YlrLD 


PRODUCTION 


JUL/JIJN 


JUL/J UN 


NET 


UTILIZATION 


STOCKS 




HARVESTED 






If'PORTS 


EXPORTS 


Ih'PORTS 


TOTAL 1/ 


CHANGE 


USSR 


















WHEAT AND COARSE 


GRAINS 
















1 978/79 


120.9 


1 .27 


226. 2 


15.1 


2.5 


12.5 


219.7 


19.0 


1979/80 


118.9 


1 . 44 


171 .3 


30.5 


0.5 


30. C 


214.4 


-13. C 


1980/81 


119.3 


1.50 


178.7 


34.0 


0.5 


33.5 


214.2 


-2.0 


1931/32 


117.3 


1 .30 


152.0 


45.0 


0.5 


44.5 


200.5 


-4.0 


1932/83 


115.3 


1 .49 


172.G 


31 .5 


0.5 


31.0 


204 .0 


-1.0 


1933/34 


112.0 


1.59 


176.0 


32.0 


C. 5 


31.5 


206.5 


3.0 


1934/85 3/ 


110.3 


1 . 44 


159.0 


55.0 


1 .0 


54.0 


207.0 


6.0 


1985/86 4/ 


108.7 


1.63 


177.0 


30.0 


1 .0 


29. G 


204.0 


2.0 


WHEAT 


















1 97S/79 


62.9 


1 .92 


12C.3 


5.1 


1.5 


3.6 


106.5 


18.0 


1979/80 


57.7 


1 .56 


90.2 


12.1 


0.5 


11.6 


114.8 


-13.0 


1 980/81 


61 .5 


1.60 


93. 2 


16.0 


C.5 


15.5 


114.7 


-1 .0 


1981/82 


59.2 


1.35 


30.0 


19.5 


0.5 


1<?.C 


102.0 


-3.0 


1 982/83 


57.3 


1 . 50 


86.0 


20.2 


0.5 


19.7 


105.7 


0.0 


1933/34 


50.8 


1 .56 


79.0 


20.5 


C.5 


20.0 


97.0 


2.0 


1984/35 3/ 


51.1 


1 .43 


73.0 


28.1 


1 .0 


27.1 


96.1 


4.0 


1985/86 4/ 


50.3 


1 . 65 


83.0 


17.0 


1 .0 


16.0 


97.0 


2.0 


COARSE GRAINS 5/ 


















1978/79 


58.0 


1 .82 


105.3 


9.9 


1.0 


8.9 


113.2 


1.C 


1979/80 


61 .2 


1. 33 


81 .1 


18.4 


0.0 


1 3.4 


99.5 


0.0 


1980/81 


57.9 


1.39 


80.5 


18.0 


0.0 


18.0 


99.5 


-1 .c 


1 931/32 


53.0 


1 .24 


72. C 


25.5 


0.0 


25.5 


98.5 


-1.0 


1932/33 


58.0 


1.48 


86. C 


11.3 


0.0 


11.3 


98.3 


-1.0 


1983/34 


61 .2 


1.62 


99.0 


11.5 


CO 


11.5 


109.5 


1.0 


1934/85 3/ 


59.2 


1 .45 


86.0 


26.9 


0.0 


26.9 


110.9 


2.0 


1985/86 4/ 


58.5 


1.61 


94.0 


13.0 


0.0 


13.0 


107.0 


o.c 



CHINA 



WHEAT AND COARSE GRAINS 



1973/79 




62.7 


2.12 


132.9 


11.1 


0.1 


1 1 .0 


1 43.9 


0.0 


1 979/30 




63.1 


2.31 


145.8 


10. 9 


0.1 


10.8 


156.5 


0.0 


1980/31 




61 .7 


2.26 


139.4 


14.6 


0.2 


14.4 


1 54.0 


0.0 


1981/32 




59.4 


2.36 


140.4 


14.5 


0.2 


14.3 


154.8 


0.0 


1932/33 




57.2 


2. 64 


150.8 


15.7 


0.1 


15.6 


166.4 


0.0 


1933/34 




58.6 


2.97 


174.0 


9.8 


0.5 


9.4 


1 32. 4 


0.0 


1 9U/35 


3/ 


58.3 


3.14 


133.3 


7.5 


5.7 


1.8 


185.1 


0.0 


1935/86 


4/ 


56.7 


7.00 


169.9 


6.3 


4.7 


1.6 


171 .4 


0.0 


WHEAT 




















1973/79 




29.2 


1 . 34 


53.6 


8.0 


0.0 


8.0 


61.9 


o.c 


1979/80 




29.4 


2.14 


62.7 


3.9 


0.0 


3.9 


71.6 


o.c 


1930/31 




29.2 


1 .89 


55.2 


13.8 


0.0 


13.8 


69.0 


0.0 


1931/82 




23. 3 


2.11 


59.6 


13.2 


0.0 


13.2 


72.8 


CO 


1 952/83 




27.9 


2.45 


68.4 


1 3.0 


0.0 


13. C 


81 .4 


CO 


1933/34 




29.0 


2.80 


81 .4 


9.6 


0.0 


9.6 


91 .0 


0.0 


1934/85 


3/ 


29.6 


2.97 


87.8 


7.4 


0.0 


7.4 


95.2 


CO 


1935/86 


4/ 


29.3 


2.93 


86.0 


6.0 


0.0 


6.0 


92.0 


0.0 


COARSE GRAINS 5/ 


















1978/79 




33.5 


2.36 


79.0 


3.1 


C.I 


3.C 


82.0 


CO 


1979/80 




33.7 


2.46 


33.1 


2.0 


0.1 


1.9 


85.0 


0.0 


1980/81 




32.5 


2.59 


84.2 


0.9 


0.2 


0.7 


85.0 


0.0 


1981/82 




31.1 


2.60 


80.8 


1.3 


0.2 


1.1 


81 .9 


CO 


1 932/83 




29.3 


2. 51 


32.4 


2.7 


0.1 


2.6 


85.0 


o.c 


1933/84 




29.6 


3.13 


92.6 


0.2 


0.5 


-0.2 


92.4 


CO 


1934/35 


3/ 


28.7 


3.32 


95.4 


0.1 


5.7 


-5.5 


39.9 


CO 


1 935/36 


4/ 


27.3 


3.07 


83.9 


0.3 


4.7 


-4.4 


79.4 


o.c 



1/ FEED USE DATA ARE UNAVAILABLE FOR CHINA. 

2/ FOR CHINA/ UTILIZATION ESTIMATES REPRESENT "APPARENT" UTILIZATION/ I.E. THEY INCLUDE ANNUAL STOCK LEVEL 

ADJUSTMENTS THOUGH NO STOCKS DATA ARE AVAILABLE. 
3/ PRELIMINARY. 
4/ PROJECTION. 

5/ COARSE GRAINS INCLUDE iSAOLEY/ RYE/ OATS/ CORN/ SORGHUM/ AND MILLET. EXCLUDED ARE mSCELLANEOUS GRAINS/ 
PULSES AND RICE. 

COMMODITY PROGRAMS/ FAS/ USDA GRAIN AND FEED DIVISION 



21 



'JHEAT: SUPPLY ftND DISAPPEARANCE 
U.S. AND NAJO^ COMPETITORS 
1973/74 - 19B5/S6 
"ILLION fETRIC TON S / H E CT A R E S 

AREA YIELD PRODUCTION OCIESTIC - - EXPORTS 1/ MKT YEAR II 

HARVESTED USE JUU/JUN »'<T YEAR END STOCKS 



CANADA (fABKETING YEAR AUG/JUL) 



1973/74 


9.6 


1 .69 


16.2 


4.6 


11.7 


11.4 


10.1 


1974/75 


£.9 


1 .49 


13.3 


4.6 


11.2 


10.7 


8.0 


1975/74 


9.5 


1.S0 


17.1 


4.6 


12.1 


12.3 


3.2 


1976/77 


11.3 


2.10 


23.6 


3.0 


12.9 


13.4 


13.3 


1977/73 


10.1 


1.96 


19.0 


5.1 


15.9 


16.0 


12.1 


1973/79 


10.6 


2.00 


21.1 


5.3 


13.5 


13.1 


14.9 


1 979/30 


10.5 


1 .64 


17.2 


5.5 


15.0 


IS. 9 


10.7 


1930/S1 


11.1 


1 .74 


19.3 


5.2 


17.0 


16.3 


8.6 


19?1/82 


12.4 


2.00 


24.3 


5.2 


17.6 


13.4 


9.8 


1932/83 


12.6 


2.13 


26.7 


5.1 


21 .4 


21 .4 


10.0 


1 9a3/»4 


13.7 


1.94 


26.5 


5.6 


21 .8 


21 .8 


9.2 


1934/=53 3/ 


13.2 


1 .61 


21.2 


5.4 


10.4 


17.5 


7.5 


1985/86 4/ 


13.7 


1 .75 


23.9 


5.9 


17.5 


18.0 


7.5 







AUSTRALIA 


(MARKETIN 


3 YEAR 


OCT/SEP) 


1973/74 




3,9 


1.34 


12. Q 


3.5 


1974/75 




p . -r 


1 .37 


11.4 


3.1 


1975/76 




8.6 


1 .40 


12.0 


2.3 


1976/77 




9.0 


1 .32 


11.3 


2.8 


1977/78 




10.0 


0.94 


9.4 


2.6 


1973/79 




10.2 


1 .77 


18.1 


2.5 


1 979/80 




11.2 


1 .45 


16.2 


3.4 


1 980/81 




11.3 


0.96 


10.9 


3.5 


1 981/82 




11.9 


1 .38 


16.4 


2.6 


1 932/83 




11.5 


0.77 


8.9 


4.1 


1983/84 




12.9 


1 .70 


22.0 


3.4 


1984/85 


3/ 


12.0 


1.52 


1 E.3 


3.3 


1985/86 


4/ 


12.0 


1 .38 


16.5 


3.0 






ARGENTIMS 


(MARKETING YE«R 


DEC/NOV) 


1973/74 




4.0 


1.66 


6.6 


4.2 


1974/75 




4.2 


1.41 


6.0 


4.5 


1975/76 




5.3 


1.63 


8.6 


5.4 


1976/77 




6.4 


1 .71 


11.0 


4.2 


1977/7? 




3.9 


1 .46 


5.7 


4.3 


1 973/79 




4.7 


1 .73 


8.1 


4.1 


1979/80 




4.3 


1 .69 


3.1 


4.0 


1980/31 




5.0 


1.55 


7.3 


3.9 


1931/82 




5.9 


1 .40 


8.3 


4.3 


1932/33 




7.3 


2.05 


15.0 


4.3 


1933/84 




6.9 


1 .35 


12. S 


4.7 


1984/35 


3/ 


5.9 


2.22 


13.2 


4.6 


1935/36 


4/ 


5.3 


1.61 


8.5 


4.4 



5.4 
8.3 
7.9 
8.5 
11.1 
6.7 
15.0 
10.6 
11.0 
8.1 
10.6 
15.3 
15.7 



1.1 
2.2 
3.2 
5.6 
2.6 
3.3 
4.3 
3.9 
4.3 
7.5 
9.7 
8.0 
6.1 



7.0 
3.6 
8.7 
9.5 
8.1 
7 
2 
,6 
,0 
,3 
,3 



11 
13 

9 
11 

7 
13 
14.0 
15.5 



1.6 
1.3 
3.2 
5.9 
1.8 
4.1 
4.8 
3.8 
3.6 
9.9 
7.8 
9.4 
4.2 



2.0 
1.7 
2.7 
2.1 
0.8 
4.6 
4.3 
2.0 
4.8 
2.3 
7.6 
3.6 
6.6 



1.0 
0.7 
0.7 
1.6 
1.2 
1.1 
0.4 
0.4 

o.s 
1.1 

1.3 
0.5 
0.4 



TOTAL COMPETITORS 



1973/74 

1 974/75 

1975/76 

1976/77 

1977/73 

1 973/79 

1979/30 

1930/81 

1931/82 

1982/33 

1933/34 

1934/35 3/ 

1935/36 4/ 



22.5 
21.5 
23.3 
26.6 
24.0 
25.5 
26.4 
27.4 
30.2 
31.4 



33.5 
31 .1 
31 .0 



1 .54 
1 .43 
1.61 
1.74 
1 .46 
1.85 
1 .57 
1 .38 
1 .64 
1.61 
1.83 
1.69 
1.58 



34.7 
30.6 
37.6 
46.4 
34.9 
47.3 
41.5 
37.9 
49.5 
50.6 
61.3 
52.7 
48.9 



12.4 
12.2 
12.3 
12.1 

12 
11 
12 
1 2 



0 
9 
9 
6 

12.1 
14.0 
13.7 
13.2 
13.3 



13.3 

21 .6 

23.2 

27.0 

29.5 

23.5 

34 

31 

32 

37 

42 

42 



39.3 



20.0 
21.1 
24.1 
28.3 
25.9 
28. S 
33.8 
29.7 
33.1 
38.5 
43.0 
40.9 
37.7 



13.1 
10.4 
11.6 
17.1 
14.1 
20.7 
15.4 
11.0 
15.3 
13.4 
1?.0 
16.5 
14.4 



U.S. (MARKETING YEAR JUN/MAY) 



1973/74 
1974/75 
1975/76 
1976/77 
1977/73 
1 973/79 
1 979/80 
1930/81 
1931/32 
1932/83 
1 933/34 
19^4/85 3/ 
1935/86 4/ 



21 .9 
26.5 
28.1 
28.7 
27.0 
22.9 



2.12 
1 .83 



25 , 
28, 
32. 
31. 
24. 



27.1 
25.2 



46.6 
48.5 
57.9 
58.5 
55.7 
45.3 
58.1 
64.5 
75.8 
75.3 
65.9 
70.4 
66.0 



20.5 
18.3 
19.7 



20. 
23. 
22. 
21 . 
21 . 



5 
4 
8 
3 
3 

23.1 
24.7 
30.2 
51.4 
29.3 



31 . 
28, 
31. 
26. 
31 . 



32.3 
37.2 
41 .9 
48.8 
39.9 
38.9 
33.1 
26.0 



33.1 
27.7 
31 .9 
25.9 
30.6 
32.5 
37.4 
41.2 
48. 2 
41 .1 
38.9 
38.8 
24.5 



9.3 
11.3 
13.1 
30.3 
32.1 
25.1 
24.5 
26.9 
31.5 
41 .2 
38.1 
33.8 
51.4 



TOTAL U.S. AND COMPETITORS 

1973/74 44.4 1.83 81.3 32.9 49.6 53.1 22.3 

1974/73 47.9 1.65 79.1 30.5 49.9 48.8 22.2 

1975/76 51.4 1.86 95.5 32.1 54.9 56.0 29.8 

1976/77 55.3 1.90 104.9 32.7 53.1 54.7 47.3 

1977/78 51.0 1.78 90.6 35.4 61.1 56.5 46.1 

1973/79 48.4 1.93 95.7 34.7 55.8 61.3 45." 

1979/80 51.7 1.93 99.6 34.2 71.9 71.3 40.0 

1980/81 56.2 1.83 102.7 33.9 73.5 70.9 37.9 

1931/82 62.9 1.99 125.3 35.1 81.7 81.3 44.9 

1932/33 62.9 2.00 125.9 38.7 76.9 79.6 54.6 

1933/34 53.4 2.18 127.1 43.9 80.9 31.8 56.1 

1934/85 3/ 5S.2 2.12 123.3 44.6 SO. 8 79.7 55.3 

1935/36 4/ 57.2 2.01 114.9 42.6 65.3 62.2 65.8 



1/ INCLUDES THE WHEAT EOUIVALENT OF FLOUR. 

2/ NET CHANGES \H FARM STOCKS FOR ARGENTINA AND AUSTRALIA ARE REFLECTED IN DOMESTIC 

DISA'PEABANC E. 
3/ PRELIMINARY. 
4/ PROJECTED. 

SOURCES: PREPARED OR ESTIMATED ON BASIS OF OFFICIAL STATISTICS OF FOREIGN GOVERNMENTS/ 
OTHER FOREIGN SOURCE MATERIALS/ REPORTS OF U.S. AG » I C UL TU R AL ATTACHES AND FOREIGN SERVICP 
OFFICERS/ RESULTS OF OFFICE RESEARCH, AND RELATED INFORMATION. 

COMMODITY PROGRAMS/ FAS/ USDA GRAIN AND FEED DIVISION 



22 



SELECTED COARSE 6RAINS 
•1AJ0R FOREIGN EXPORTERS 
PRODUCTION YEARS 1978 - 1985 
THOUSANDS OF METRIC TONS/HECTARES 







AREA 


YIELD 


PRODUCTION 


DOMESTIC 


- - EXPORTS 


ENDING 






HARVESTED 






UTILIZATION 


OCT/SEP 


MKT YR 


STOCKS 


ARGENTINA 




GRAIN SORGHUM 


(MAR/FEB) 












(78) 1979/30 




2117 


3.07 


6500 


2856 


1611 


3755 


141 


(79) 1980/81 




1279 


2.31 


2960 


1 585 


4860 


1494 


22 


(80) 1981/32 




21 00 


3.38 


7100 


2050 


5 21 6 


4940 


132 


(81) 1982/83 




2510 


3.19 


8000 


2090 


4931 


5544 


498 


(82) 1983/84 




2520 


3.02 


7600 


2700 


4788 


51 97 


201 


(83) 1954/85 




2370 


3.04 


7200 


3200 


3360 


41 34 


67 


(54) 1985/86 


1 / 


1 987 


2.97 


5900 


2500 


2200 


3227 


240 


(85) 1986/87 


2/ 


1350 


3.33 


4500 


2500 




2000 


240 






SPAIN SORGHUM 


(MAR/FFB) 












(78) 1979/80 




469 


2.40 


1125 


502 


650 


669 


134 


(79) 1980/81 




519 


1 .78 


922 


367 


^ 1 n 

J 1 u 




183 


(ftn\ ^ 0 / A.^ 

\ 0\J / lYOl/Oc 




QjO 


1 R'^ 

1 . O J 


1 ?ni 

1 C w 


466 


1 £ J O 


fl s A 

O J V 


65 


vol/ lT0t/3J 




AL9 
o*»y 


£ . 


1 "^1 7 




C C 1 


0 /\ 1 

7 0 1 








707 

f \J r 


I.JO 


9 ^ R 
y J o 


701 


1 i?7 


C- o c 








730 


2,58 


188 5 


390 


1240 


142 5 


100 




•J / 


707 


1.94 


1371 


296 


1 1 CO 


115 0 


25 






7?0 


2.00 


1 440 


300 




1 1 ? s 


40 


ARGENTINA 




CORN (MAR/FEB) 














(78) 1979/80 




2899 


3.10 


9000 


3296 


3460 


5965 


173 


(79) 1930/31 




2490 


2.57 


6400 


3048 


9016 


3417 


106 


(80) 1981/82 




3394 


3.80 


1 2900 


3700 


4922 


9098 


210 


(81) 1982/83 




3170 


3.03 


9600 


3500 


6483 


5765 


545 


(82) 1983/34 




2970 


3.03 


9000 


3200 


5885 


6056 


289 


(83) 1984/35 




3025 


3.04 


9200 


3725 


7100 


5448 


316 


(34) 1935/86 


1 / 


3350 


3.43 


11500 


3800 


9500 


7200 


816 


(85) 1986/37 


2/ 


3500 


3.71 


13000 


3700 




9300 


816 


SOUTH AFRICA 




CORN (MAY/APR) 














(78) 1979/80 




4305 


1 .92 


8271 


6702 


3303 


2325 


1359 


(79) 1980/31 




4322 


2.50 


10794 


6757 


3930 


3444 


1952 


(80) 1981/82 




4339 


3.38 


14645 


7097 


4700 


4955 


4545 


(81) 1982/33 




4278 


1 .95 


3355 


7663 


2300 


4034 


1 333 


(82) 1983/34 




4065 


1.00 


4C83 


7525 


75 


238 


42 


(83) 1934/85 




3953 


1.11 


4405 


61 82 


5C0 


9 


264 


(34) 1985/36 


1 / 


3887 


2.00 


7755 


6753 


900 


406 


1 06C 


(55) 1986/37 


2/ 


4000 


2.13 


350C 


651 1 




20C0 


1 049 


THAILAND 




CORN (JUL/JUN) 














(73) 1978/79 




1386 


2.01 


2791 


691 


1927 


2078 


53 


(79) 1979/30 




1424 


2.32 


3300 


1050 


2067 - 


2150 


153 


(80) 1980/81 




1450 


2.21 


320C 


1108 


2113 


2142 


103 


(31) 1981/82 




1750 


2.49 


4350 


1050 


3260 


3260 


143 


(82) 1932/33 




1850 


1 .86 


3450 


1160 


2136 


2136 


297 


(33) 1933/34 




1325 


2.16 


3950 


1300 


3026 


2846 


101 


(84) 1984/85 


1/ 


1955 


2.23 


4350 


1 290 


3010 


3057 


104 


(85) 1985/36 


2/ 


2150 


2.40 


5150 


1450 


35C0 


3400 


404 


AUSTRALIA 




BARLEY (NOV/OCT) 












(78) 1978/79 




2785 


1 .44 


4006 


1 560 


2007 


911? 


533 


(79) 1979/80 




2482 


1 .49 


3703 


1357 


2900 


b 0 C "f 




(30) 1930/31 




2451 


1 .09 


2682 


831 


1 J u 


1 7 R 1 

1 r 0 1 


1 9^ 
1 C7 


(31) 1931/32 




2685 


1 .23 


3450 


1 266 


1702 


? ? S 0 




(32) 1982/33 




2452 


0.79 


1 939 


1015 


600 


R Ri 


on 


(83) 1933/34 




3109 


1 .57 


4890 


810 


J t C I 


A1 1 7 




(84) 1934/35 


1/ 


3506 


1 .59 


5562 


1123 


5 566 






(85) 1985/86 


2/ 


3480 


1.44 


5000 


900 


4500 


4100 


109 


CANADA 




BARLEY (AUG/JUL) 












(78) 1978/79 




4259 


2.44 


1 0337 


7146 


3398 


3554 


4895 


(79) 1979/50 




3724 


2.27 


3460 


7537 


2 06 3 


3832 


2006 


(SO) 1980/81 




4634 


2.43 


11259 


6835 


4012 


3236 


3203 


(81) 1951/32 




5476 


2.51 


13724 


7046 


5543 


5722 


4161 


(82) 1982/33 




5149 


2.71 


13966 


7275 


6071 


5648 


5204 


(33) 1933/34 




4353 


2.35 


10209 


7906 


4240 


5536 


1971 


(34) 1984/35 


1/ 


4566 


2.25 


10296 


7651 


2454 


2604 


2012 


(85) 1935/86 


2/ 


4752 


2.58 


12250 


75C0 


3500 


3300 


3462 



NOTE: YEARS IN PARENTHESES DENOTE PRODUCTION YEARS USED FOR AGGREGATING WORLD CROPS. SPLIT YEARS 
(E.G. 1982/33) ARE MARKETING YEARS. 

1/ PRELIMINARY. 
2/ PROJECTION. 

SOURCES: PREPARED OR ESTIMATED ON THE BASIS OF OFFICIAL STATISTICS OF FOREIGN GOVERNMENTS/ OTHER 
FOREIGN SOURCE MATERIALS/ REPORTS OF U.S. AGRICULTURAL ATTACHES AND FOREIGN SERVICE OFFICERS/ RESULTS 
OF OFFICE RESEARCH AND RELATED INFORMATION. 



COMMODITY PROGRAMS/ FAS/ USCA 



GRAIN AND FEED DIVISION 



U.S. UHEAT AND COARSE GRAINS 
MILLION METRIC TONS/HECTARES 
MARKETING YEARS 1960/61 - 1985/86 

BEGINNING AREA YIELD PRODUCTION IMPORTS EXPORTS DOMESTIC DOMESTIC 

STOCKS HARVESTED FOR FEED TOTAL USE 



TOTAL WHEAT AND COARSE GRAINS 



1 960/61 


105.6 


73.3 


2.4 


178. 


8 


0. 


6 


29.0 


110 


.1 


1 37.7 


1961/62 


118.3 


64.1 


Zm5 


1 61 . 


0 


0. 


5 


34.7 


112 


.8 


1 40. 8 


1 962/63 


104.3 


59.7 


2.7 


4 r ft 

1 59. 


3 


0. 


3 


32.9 


1 09 


.6 


137.9 


1 963/6 4 


93.2 


61.6 


2.8 


171 . 


5 


0. 


4 


39.7 


106 


.9 


135.3 


1 964/65 


90 . 1 


60.2 


2.6 


1 57, 


5 


0. 


4 


39. 3 


1 04 


.4 


133.6 


1965/66 


76.5 


59.6 


3.0 


1 79. 


1 


0. 


3 


48.9 


1 20 


.0 


148.9 


1 966/67 


58.2 


60.2 


3.0 


1 80. 


7 


0. 


3 


41.1 


118 


.2 


1 48.6 


19 67/63 


49.5 


65. u 


3.1 


ft T 

203 . 


9 


0. 


3 


41.5 


4 4 O 

118 


. 8 


4 / ft e 

149,5 


1 968/69 


62.7 


62.0 


3.2 


4 ft 

1 97. 


6 


0. 


3 


31.1 


1 26 


.9 


1 57.8 


1 96^/70 


71 .8 


58.3 


3 .4 


201 . 


0 


0. 


4 


35.4 


134 


.0 


1 65.0 


1 970/71 


7Z . 8 


5 3.4 


3.1 


4 O '3 

182. 


9 


ft 

Ob 


4 


38.8 


132 


.1 


I62.fi 


1 971 /72 


54.6 


62.9 


3.7 


233 . 


6 


0. 


4 


40. 5 


143 


.1 


1 74. 6 


1 972/7 3 


73.4 


57. 5 


3.9 


224. 


1 


0. 


5 


69.1 


147 


.8 


1 80.9 


1 973/74 


48.0 


63.5 


3.7 


233. 


3 


0. 


3 


73.8 


143 


.0 


176.7 


1 974/75 


31 .1 


67.1 


3.0 


1 99. 


4 


0. 


6 


63.6 


106 


.5 


140.1 


1 975/76 


27.3 


70.8 


3.4 


243. 


3 


0. 


5 


82.0 


116 


.7 


153.7 


1 976/77 


35.5 


72.0 


3.5 


252. 


8 


0. 


4 


76.5 


115 


.3 


151.9 


1977/73 


60.3 


71 .2 


3.7 


261. 


4 


0. 


4 


86.9 


124 


.5 


161.7 


1978/79 


73.5 


66.0 


4.1 


270. 


5 


0. 


3 


92.7 


140 


.5 


1 80. C 


1 979/80 


71 .6 


67.1 


4.4 


296. 


5 


0. 


4 


108.8 


140 


.9 


182.4 


1980/31 


77.2 


70.1 


3.8 


263. 


1 


0. 


3 


110.7 


124 


.6 


168.4 


1 981/32 


61 .6 


76.1 


4.2 


322. 


4 


0. 


4 


106.8 


132 


.3 


177.8 


1982/83 


99.8 


74.8 


4.4 


326. 


0 


0. 


6 


95.1 


144 


.9 


192.5 


1983/84 


138.7 


57.7 


3.5 


203. 


0 


0. 


8 


94.6 


128 


.0 


178.1 


1 934/85 


69.8 


70.6 


4.4 


308. 


3 


1. 


0 


94.7 


142 


.4 


195.2 


1 985/86 


89.2 


71.6 


4.8 


340. 


3 


1- 


0 


68.3 


141 


.4 


196.1 



1986/37 166.2 



WHEAT 



1970/71 


26.8 


17.7 


2 


.1 


36. 


8 


0. 


0 


20 


.2 


5 


.3 


21. 


C 


1971/72 


22.4 


19.3 


2 


.3 


44. 


1 


0. 


0 


16 


.3 


7 


.1 


23. 


4 


1972/73 


26.8 


19.1 


2 


.2 


42. 


1 


0. 


0 


30 


.4 


5 


.5 


22. 


3 


1 973/74 


16.2 


21 .9 


2 


.1 


46. 


6 


0. 


1 


33 


.1 


3 


.5 


20. 


5 


1 974/75 


9.3 


26.5 


1 


.8 


43. 


5 


0. 


1 


27 


.7 


1 


.1 


18. 


3 


1975/76 


11.3 


28.1 


2 


.1 


57. 


9 


0. 


1 


31 


.9 


1 


.0 


19. 


7 


1976/77 


1 3.1 


28.7 


2 


.0 


58. 


5 


0. 


1 


25 


.9 


2 


.0 


20. 


5 


1977/78 


30.3 


27.0 


2 


.1 


55. 


7 


0- 


1 


30 


.6 


5 


.3 


23. 


4 


1978/79 


32.1 


22.9 


2 


.1 


43. 


3 


0. 


0 


32 


.5 


4 


.3 


22. 


8 


1 979/80 


25.1 


25.3 


2 


.3 


58. 


1 


0. 


1 


37 


.4 


2 


.3 


21. 


3 


1980/81 


24.5 


28.8 


2 


.3 


64. 


8 


0. 


1 


41 


.2 


1 


.6 


21. 


3 


1981/32 


26.9 


32.6 


2 


.3 


75. 


8 


0. 


1 


48 


.2 


3 


.6 


23. 


1 


1982/83 


31 .5 


31 .5 


2 


.4 


75. 


3 


0. 


2 


41 


.1 


5 


.3 


24. 


7 


1983/84 


41 .2 


24.8 


2 


.7 


65. 


9 


0. 


1 


38 


.9 


10 


.2 


30. 


2 


1 984/85 


38.1 


27.1 


2 


.6 


70. 


6 


0. 


2 


38 


.8 


11 


.2 


31. 


4 


1 985/36 


38.3 


26.2 


2 


.5 


66. 


0 


0. 


4 


24 


.5 


8 


.8 


29. 


3 


1936/87 


51-4 




























tSE GRAINS 






























1 970/71 


46.1 


40.7 


3 


.6 


146. 


1 


0. 


4 


18 


.6 


126 


.9 


141. 


8 


1971 /72 


32.2 


43.6 


4 


.3 


189. 


5 


0. 


3 


24 


.2 


136 


.0 


151. 


3 


1 972/73 


46.6 


38.4 


4 


.7 


182. 


0 


0. 


4 


38 


-7 


142 


.3 


158. 


6 


1 973/74 


31 .7 


41.6 


4 


c 


1 86. 


8 


0. 


2 


40 


.7 


139 


.5 


1 56. 


2 


1974/75 


21 .8 


40.7 


3 


.7 


150. 


9 


0. 


5 


35 


-9 


105 


.4 


121. 


8 


1 975/76 


15.5 


42.6 


4 


.4 


185. 


4 


0. 


4 


50 


.0 


115 


.6 


134. 


C 


1976/77 


17.3 


43.3 


4 


.5 


194. 


4 


0. 


3 


50 


.6 


113 


.3 


131. 


4 


1 977/78 


30.0 


44.2 


4 


.7 


205. 


7 


0. 


3 


56 


.3 


119 


.2 


138. 


3 


1 978/79 


41 .5 


43.2 


5 


.1 


222. 


1 


0. 


3 


60 


.2 


1 36 


.2 


1 57. 


2 


1 979/30 


46.4 


41.8 


5 


.7 


238. 


4 


0. 


3 


71 


.4 


138 


.5 


161. 


1 


1980/31 


52.7 


41 .3 


4 


.8 


1 98. 


3 


0. 


3 


69 


-5 


123 


.0 


147. 


1 


1981/32 


34.7 


43.4 


5 


.7 


246. 


6 


0. 


3 


58 


.6 


128 


.7 


154. 


8 


1982/33 


68.2 


43.2 


5 


.8 


250. 


7 


0. 


4 


54 


.0 


139 


.6 


167. 


9 


1983/34 


97.5 


32.9 


4 


.2 


137. 


1 


0. 


7 


55 


.7 


117 


.8 


147. 


8 


1 984/85 


31 .8 


43.6 


5 


.5 


237. 


7 


0. 


8 


56 


.0 


131 


.2 


163- 


8 


1985/86 


50.5 


45.4 


6 


.0 


274. 


3 


0. 


6 


43 


.8 


132 


.5 


166. 


8 



1986/87 114.8 



NOTES: COARSE GRAINS INCLUDE CORN^ SORGHUM^ BARLEY/. OATS AND RYE. 
SOURCE: OFFICIAL USDA STATISTICS OR ESTIMATES- 
COMMODITY PROGRAMS^ FASr USDA GRAIN AND FEED DIVISION 



2^ 



U.S. WHEAT, CORN, SORGHUM, BARLEY, OATS, AND RYE SUPPLY/DISTRIBUTION 
MILLION BUSHELS/ MILLION ACRES 



Beginning 
Stocks 


Harvested 
Area 


Yield 


Production 


Imports 


Exports 


Feed Usage 


Total 
Domestic Use 


Wheat 




















1975/76 


435 


69.5 


30.6 


2,127 


2 


1 


,173 


37 


725 


1976/77 


666 


70.9 


30.3 


2,149 


3 




950 


75 


755 


1977/78 


1,113 


66.7 


30.7 


2,046 


2 


1 


.124 


192 


859 


1978/79 


1,178 


56.5 


31.4 


1,776 


2 


1 


,194 


1S8 


837 


1979/80 


924 


62.5 


34.2 


2,134 


2 


1 


.375 


86 


783 


1980/81 


902 


71.1 


33.5 


2,381 


3 


1 


,514 


60 


783 


1981/82 


989 


80.6 


34.5 


2,785 


3 


1 


.771 


135 


847 


1982/83 


1,159 


77.9 


35.5 


2,765 


8 


1 


,509 


195 


908 


1983/84 


1,515 


61.4 


39.4 


2,420 


4 


1 


,429 


369 


1,111 


1984/85 


1,399 


66.9 


38.8 


2,595 


8 


1 


,424 


410 


1,153 


1985/86 


1,425 


64.7 


37.5 


2,425 


14 




900 


325 


1,075 


1986/87 


1,887 


















Corn 




















1975/76 


361 


67.6 


86.4 


5,841 


2 


1 


.711 


3,603 


4,093 


1976/77 


400 


71.5 


88.0 


6,289 


3 


1 


,684 


3,609 


4,122 


1977/78 


886 


70.6 


92.1 


6,505 


3 


1 


,948 


3,744 


4,334 


1978/79 


1,111 


71.9 


101.0 


7,268 


1 


2 


,133 


4,323 


4,943 


1979/80 


1,304 


72.4 


109.5 


7,928 


1 


2 


,433 


4,508 


5,183 


1980/81 


1,617 


73.0 


91.0 


6,639 


1 


2 


,355 


4,133 


4,868 


1981/82 


1,034 


74.6 


108.9 


8,119 


1 


1 


,967 


4,201 


5,013 


1982/83 


2,174 


72.7 


113.2 


8,235 


1 


1 


,870 


4,522 


5,420 


1983/84 


3,120 


51.5 


81.1 


4,175 


2 


1 


,865 


3,736 


4,709 


1984/85 


723 


71.9 


106.7 


7,674 


3 


1 


,838 


4,117 


5,182 


1985/86 


1,381 


75.1 


118.0 


8,865 


2 


1 


,450 


4,100 


5,230 


1986/87 


3,568 


















Sorghum 




















1975/76 


35 


15.4 


49.0 


754 






229 


502 


509 


1976/77 


51 


14.5 


49.0 


711 






246 


419 


425 


1977/78 


91 


13.8 


56.6 


781 






213 


456 


468 


1978/79 


191 


13.4 


54.5 


731 






207 


544 


555 


1979/80 


160 


12.9 


62.6 


807 






325 


483 


496 


1980/81 


146 


12.5 


46.3 


579 


- 




299 


306 


317 


1981/82 


109 


13.7 


64.0 


876 






249 


429 


440 


1982/83 


296 


14.1 


59.1 


835 


- 




214 


507 


517 


1983/84 


400 


10.0 


48.7 


488 






246 


381 


391 


1984/85 


251 


15.3 


56.4 


866 






299 


527 


547 


1985/86 


271 


16.7 


66.7 


1,113 






250 


575 


595 


1986/87 


539 


















Barley 
1975/76 


92 


8.6 


44.1 


379 


16 




24 


186 


335 


1976/77 


128 


8.4 


45.6 


383 


11 




66 


172 


330 


1977/78 


126 


9.7 


44.0 


428 


9 




57 


177 


333 


1978/79 


173 


9.2 


49.2 


455 


10 




26 


217 


384 


1979/80 


228 


7.5 


50.9 


383 


12 




55 


204 


376 


1980/81 


192 


7.3 


49.7 


361 


10 




77 


174 


349 


1981/82 


137 


9.0 


52.4 


474 


10 




100 


198 


372 


1982/83 


148 


9.0 


57.2 


516 


11 




47 


241 


411 


1983/84 


217 


9.7 


52.3 


509 


7 




92 


283 


452 


1 QUA 




11.2 


53.4 


599 


10 




77 


304 


474 






11.5 


51.0 


589 


7 






300 


470 


1986/87 


349 


















Oats 




















1975/76 


224 


13.0 


49.0 


639 


1 




14 


560 


645 


1976/77 


205 


11.8 


45.9 


540 


2 




10 


490 


573 


1977/78 


164 


13.5 


55.6 


753 


2 




12 


509 


594 


1978/79 


313 


11.1 


52.3 


582 


1 




13 


525 


603 


1979/80 


280 


9.7 


54.4 


527 


1 




4 


492 


568 


1980/81 


236 


8.7 


53.0 


459 


1 




13 


432 


506 


1981/82 


177 


9.4 


54.2 


510 


2 




7 


454 


530 


1982/83 


152 


10.3 


57.8 


593 


4 




3 


441 


526 


1983/84 


220 


9.1 


52.6 


477 


30 




2 


466 


544 


1984/85 


181 


8.2 


58.0 


474 


34 




1 


433 


508 


1985/86 


180 


8.2 


63.6 


519 


25 




2 


475 


555 


1986/87 


167 


















Rye 




















1975/76 


7 


0.7 


22.9 


16 


1 




1 


7 


18 


1976/77 


4 


0.7 


21.4 


15 






- 


5 


15 


1977/78 


4 


0.7 


24.4 


17 








7 


17 


1978/79 


4 


0.9 


26.0 


24 






- 


8 


19 


1979/80 


9 


0.9 


25.7 


22 






2 


7 


17 


1980/81 


12 


0.7 


24.6 


16 


- 




8 


7 


16 


1981/82 


4 


0.7 


26.6 


18 






2 


8 


18 


1982/83 


3 


0.7 


28.9 


20 


3 






10 


20 


1983/84 


6 


0.9 


30.3 


27 


2 




1 


12 


22 


1984/85 


11 


1.0 


33.0 


32 


1 




1 


14 


24 


1985/86 


20 


0.7 


30.0 


21 


2 




1 


13 


23 


1986/87 


18 



















Notes: Commodity Years As Follows: 

Sorghtim. 
"-" Denotes zero. 



June/May-Wheat, Barley, Oats and Rye; October/ September-Corn and 



Source: World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates No. 191, March 10, 1986 



January 13, 1986 EP 5114G, pg.l3 



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26 



rfOBUD WHEAT ANa COARSE CAINS 
SL!P»LY/3exAND 1 960/61 - 1 985/36 
"ILLIONS OF "'^T'lC TO NS / H E CT A >! : 3 





A? EA 


YIELD 


PRODUCTION 


WO'LO 


UTILIZATION 


ENDING 


STCC S 




HARVESTED 






TOADS 1 / 


TOTAL 2/ 


ST<S 3/ 


X CF UT! 


WHEAT 
















1 960/61 


202.2 


1.1? 


233.4 


41,9 


234.3 


?1 . S 


3 4.8 


1 961 161 


203.4 


1.10 


224.3 


46 . £ 


2 3 6.4 


70 . 2 


2 9.7 


1 962/63 


206.9 


1.22 


2 51.3 


44.3 


2 4 E , 1 


74 . C 


2 9.8 


1963/64 


206.3 


1.13 


233 .9 


56 .0 


240.0 


67 ■ £ 


25.3 


1 954/65 


215." 


1.25 


270.4 


5 2.0 


262.0 




2 9.1 


1965/66 


213.5 


1.22 


263.3 


61.0 


2 31.5 


5 5.3 


i O 7 
1 ^ . f 


10 4^/67 


213.6 


1.44 


306 • 7 


5 6.0 






? 0 L 


1 967/63 


n 9 . 2 


1 . 3 J 


297.6 


51 . C 


2 3 9,1 


< « c * ^ 


J 1 ■ * 


1 '63/69 


22 5 .9 


1.48 


33 Q • 3 


45.0 


305.4 


1 1 ? ■ C 


J < • 0 


1 969/70 


21 7 , B 


1 .42 


310.0 


50.0 


J r ' • - 


Q7 

V f . C 


tu % J 


1970/71 


207.0 


1.52 


313.7 


5 5.0 


337.2 


^4 . 3 


c ^ • 0 


1 971 /72 


212.9 


1.65 


3 51 .0 


5 2.0 


7 4 4,3 


51 . C 


23.3 


1 972/73 


2 1 1 . C 


1.63 


3 43.4 


6 7 . C 


3 6 1 , S 


0 C a O 


I • a ^ 


1 973/74 


21 . 1 


1.72 


373.2 


6 3.0 


36 5 ,6 


7C- , 2 


19.2 


1 974/75 


220.1 


1 .64 


360.2 


64.3 


3 56,5 


63.7 


1 7 a 4 


1975/76 


225 .4 


1.58 


3 56.6 


66.7 


3 5 6.3 


64.2 


1 S a 0 


1 976/77 


233.2 


1.81 


421 .4 


63.3 


3 ' 5 , 9 




26 a 2 


1977/73 


227.1 


1.6? 


334.1 


72.3 


39'. 4 


iu\z 


20, S 


1978/79 


223.9 


1.93 


446.8 


72.0 


43C,2 


10C.9 


23a9 


1 979/80 


223.7 


1 . 56 


424. 5 


3 5.0 


444.3 


?1 .0 


1 ?a4 


1930/31 


237.0 


1.87 


443.0 


94.1 


445,5 


'^S. 2 


17.6 


1 9 31 / 3 2 


23 » , 7 


1.3? 


44S . 4 


101.3 


1.41 , 5 


?5.0 


19.4 


193 2/33 


237.5 


2.02 


479.1 


93.6 


457.9 


96.3 


23.0 


19 3 3/84 


229.1 


2.14 


490. 0 


101 .9 


436,3 


101 .0 


21 .0 




231.2 


2. 23 


514.7 


1 06.1 


409,7 


116.0 


23.3 


19 35/86 5/ 


225.5 


2.20 


503. ? 


? ? . 1 


492,1 


1 27.7 


25.9 


COARSE GRAINS 
















1960/61 


324.4 


1.33 


4 47.' 


2 4,0 


437.2 


10^.7 


2 5.1 


1 961 /62 


322 .4 


1.33 


434.2 


3 0.0 


4 4 9.3 


54.7 


21.1 


1962/63 


320.9 


1.43 


4 5 ' . 5 


31 .0 


4 51.5 


92.7 


20.1 


1 963/64 


324,9 


1.44 


467. 8 


34.0 


462.6 


97.9 


21,2 


1964/6 5 


321 .S 


1.47 


473.1 


3 5.0 


4 3 0 • C 


91,0 


18.9 


1965/66 


3 2 0.1 


1.51 


4 3 4 .7 


42.0 


5 OC . 5 


7 5.1 


1 5 . C 


1966/67 


3 2 1 . C 


1.62 


5 20.4 


4 0.0 


519,5 


76.1 


14,7 


1 957/ 63 


326.5 


1.69 


5 5 0.3 


39.0 


5 41.6 


B 5 . 3 


15.7 


1963/69 


3 2 5.9 


1 . 7C 


5 5 2 .7 


7 7.0 


5 4 ? , 0 


90. 0 


16.4 


1 959/70 


330 .4 


1 . 74 


5 75 .6 


3 ' • 0 


5 7 5 ,4 


90.2 


15.7 


1 970/71 


331 .3 


1 . 74 


575 .2 


46.0 


5 9 2,2 


73.2 


12.4 


1971 /72 


332.5 


1.39 


629.1 


49.3 


615,4 


37 . C 


14.2 


1 972/73 


32 5.7 


1.37 


607.6 


5 9.2 


5 24,3 


69.9 


11.2 


1 973/74 


344.1 


1.95 


671.3 


71.0 


674,8 


65,8 


9 ."^ 


1 974/75 


341 .9 


1.35 


631.2 


6 5.0 


53 4.4 


61.0 


9.6 


1975/76 


349.3 


1.35 


646.1 


7 5.2 


546.2 


58.6 


9.1 


1976/77 


344.7 


2.04 


704. 3 


33,9 


635.4 


78.2 


11.4 


1 977/7 3 


346.4 


2.03 


701.6 


8 8,3 


693 . 0 


0 7 

PO • r 


1 £ • 3 


1 978/79 


343.8 


2.20 


755.1 


92.7 


749.4 


92.2 


12.3 


1979/80 


343.2 


2.17 


743.9 


09.2 


743.3 


92.8 


12.4 


1 980/31 


342.4 


2.14 


732.9 


108.0 


743. C 


32.3 


11.3 


1931/82 


350.2 


2.20 


769.8 


96.6 


739.6 


112.9 


15.2 


1932/33 


339.2 


2.30 


779.1 


39.9 


753.4 


1 33.6 


13.3 


1 983/34 


334.2 


2.05 


585.6 


91 .9 


75''-5 


66.7 


8.8 


1934/85 4/ 


335.3 


2.3« 


305.0 


101 .7 


777.7 


97.0 


12.5 


1935/86 5/ 


342.5 


2.46 


844.0 


39.7 


778.9 


162.1 


20.9 



WHEAT AND COARSE GRAINS 



1060/61 


5 25.6 


1 .30 


686 


.3 


65 


.9 


672 .0 


191 ,5 


23.5 


1951/62 


523 .8 


1.25 


559 


.0 


76 


.3 


535 .5 


164.9 


24.1 


1952/63 


527.8 


1 .35 


711 


.4 


75 


,4 


709.6 


166.6 


23.5 


1963/64 


531.2 


r.32 


701 


.7 


90 


.0 


702.6 


165.7 


23.6 


1964/55 


537.7 


1.33 


743 


.5 


87 


,0 


742.0 


167.2 


22.5 


1965/66 


53 5 , e 


1 .40 


743 


, Q 


103 


, 0 


732.1 


130.4 


16.7 


1956/57 


534.7 


1.55 


827 


, 2 


06 


.0 


709.3 


1 58.3 


19. S 


1 967/63 


545.7 


1.55 


343 


.4 


89 


.9 


330.8 


175.9 


21.2 


1 953/69 


549 , S 


1 .61 


3 3 3 


.5 


32 


,0 


354.4 


205.0 


24.0 


1 969/70 


54 9.2 


1.62 


335 


.5 


39 


.1 


902.6 


1 S8.C 


20.9 


1970/71 


533.3 


1.65 


3 33 


.3 


101 


, n 


929,4 


147.5 


15.9 


1971/72 


545 .4 


1.30 


960 


,1 


101 


,3 


959.7 


167.9 


17.5 


1 972/73 


5 3 5.3 


1.77 


951 


.3 


126 


.2 


936.5 


132.4 


13.4 


1973/74 


5 61 ,2 


1 .85 


1C44 


.5 


134 


, 0 


1040.4 


136.0 


13.1 


1974/75 


56 2. C 


1.76 


991 


. 4 


129 


,3 


1C01 ,1 


1 24,7 


12,5 


1975/75 


574.7 


1 .74 


1002 


.8 


141 


. 0 


1002,5 


122.3 


12,3 


1975/77 


577.0 


1.95 


11 26 


. 2 


147 


.1 


1C71 ,3 


1 73.1 


15.7 


1977/73 


573.5 


1.39 


1035 


, 5 


161 


.5 


1092,5 


17C.9 


15,5 


1973/79 


572.7 


2.10 


1202 


, 0 


164 


.7 


1179,5 


193.0 


16.5 


1979/30 


571 .5 


2.04 


1168 


.4 


183 


, 2 


1137,6 


1 73.8 


14.7 


1930/81 


579.4 


2. 03 


1175 


, 0 


202 


.1 


1153.9 


1 51 .0 


13.6 


1 981/82 


53?. S 


2.07 


1213 




193 


,0 


1131 .3 


1 97.9 


16.7 


1932/33 


575 .7 


2.15 


1253 


,2 


133 


.6 


1221.3 


234.0 


19.3 


1933/34 


';53,3 


2.09 


1176 


,5 


193 


.9 


1243.3 


1('7.5 


17.6 


1934/85 4/ 


570. C 


2.32 


1322 


.7 


207 


. s 


1277.3 


213.0 


16.7 


1935/86 5/ 


572. G 


2.36 


1347 


. ' 


177 


.9 


1 271 ,1 


289.8 


22.8 



NOTE: "STOCKS AS PERCENT OF UTILIZATION" REPRESENT THE RATIO OF VARKETI^-'G YEAR ENDING 
STOCKS TO TOTAL UTILIZATION. 

1/ TRADE DATA AS EXPRESSED IN THIS TA3LE EXCLUDE INTRA-EC TOAOE. WHEAT AND COARSE GRAINS 
ARE ON A JULY/JUNE TRADE YEAR THROUGH 1075/75. FRO" 1976/77 OS, THE TRADE YEAF FOR 
COARSE GRAINS IS 0 C TOB E R/ S E PTE^3 E R . 

2/ FOR COUNTRIES FOR WHICH STOCKS DATA A»E NOT AVAILABLE (EXCLUDING THE USSR) UTILIZATION 
ESTIMATES REPRESENT "APPARENT" UTILIZATION, I.E. INCLUDE ANNUAL STOCK LEVEL ADJUSTMENTS. 

3/ STOCKS DATA ARE 5ASE0 ON AN AGG=EGATE CF DIFFERING LOCAL MARKETING YEARS AND SHOULD NOT 
BE CONSTRUED AS REPRESENTING WORLD STOCK LEVELS AT A FIXED POINT IN TIME. STOCKS DATA 
ARE NOT AVAILABLE FOR ALL COUNTRIES AND EXCLUDE THOSE SUCH A3 THE PEOPLE'S REPUBLIC OF 
CHINA AND PARTS OF EASTERN EUROPE. WORLD STOCK LEVELS HAVE ?EEN ADJUSTED FOR ESTI"ATED 
YEAR-TO-YEAR CHANGES IN USSR GRAIN STOCKS, ?UT 00 NOT PURPORT TO INCLUDE THE ABSOLUTE 
LEVEL OF USSR GRAIN STOCKS. 

4/ PRELIMINARY, 

5/ PROJECTION. 

SOURCES: PREPARED OR ESTIMATED ON THE BASIS OF OFFICIAL STATISTICS CF FOREIGN GOVERNMENTS/ 
OTHER FOREIGN SOURCE "ATERIALS, REPORTS OF U.S. AGRICULTURAL ATTACHES AND FOREIGN SERVICE 
OFFICERS/ RESULTS OF OFFICE RESEARCH AND RELATED INFORMATION. 

COMMODITY 'R03RAMS/ FAS/ USDA GRAIN AND FEED DIVISION 



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29 









EXPORT 


PRICES 


FOR WHEAT AND CORN APRIL 


1981-APRIL 1986 












(BASIS 


FOB, U.S 


. DOLLARS PER METRIC TON) 












WHEAT 




CORN 








U.S. 


ARGENTINA 


CANADA 


AUSTRALIA 


U.S. 


ARGENTINA 






GULF 




VANCOUVER 


1/ STD. WHITE 


GULF 








#2 H.W. 




#1 


CWRS 12. 


5 


#3 Yellow 




1981 


CY 


177 


189 




212 


175 


134 


137 


1982 


CY 


162 


166 




187 


160 


110 


109 


1983 


CY 


158 


138 




185 


161 


137 


133 


1984 


CY 


153 


135 




186 


153 


138 


132 


1985 


CY 


138 


108 




178 


140 


113 


102 


1985 


















Apr 




146 


113 




181 


148 


122 


110 


May 




137 


112 




180 


145 


118 


109 


June 




134 


107 




178 


141 


117 


111 


July 




130 


107 




ITT 

171 


134 


114 


112 


Aug 




124 


98 




163 


128 


103 


101 


Sep 




128 


93 




165 


131 


103 


88 


Oc t 




130 


92 




173 


134 


100 


90 


Nov 




136 


98 




181 


139 


108 


95 


Dec 




139 


114 




184 


144 


111 


100 


Jan 




133 


108 




182 


140 


109 


100 


Feb 




131 


102 




LI 1 


133 


106 


92 


Mar 


04 


133 


iU i 




180 


137 


100 


87 




11 


135 


101 




182 


140 


100 


87 




18 


135 


90 




184 


137 


102 


86 




25 


140 


96 




186 


140 


103 


86 


Apr 


01 


137 


89 




185 


136 


104 


88 




08 


138 


104 




188 


138 


102 


89 



1/ In Store Export Elevators 



30 



I 



SELECTED WORLD GRAIN PRICES, GIF ROTTERDAM 1/ 
Wheat Marketing Years 1970/71 - 1985/86 
(In U.S. dollars per metric ton) 



Wheat Corn 





u . b . No . z DarR 


Canadian 


U.S. No .3 




Northern Spring 


Western Red 


I e i i ow 






opring ij i/z^ 


Corn 


iy/U//i ^.Juiy-Juney 


/ J . /U 


7 A 1 0 / 


uc^ in 


iy/i//Z v,Juiy-June; 


b 7 . / J 


7 0 /. 


3 / .00 


Vj 1 LI ho v,Juiy— June; 


iUU . Lj 


iU i . y D 


7 7 in 


VjIoIi'^ ^.Juiy— June; 


0 no Q ^ 
ZUZ ,yj 


0 1 A An 
Z itf .if U 


1 Q o Qn 

ijz .yu 


IOTA / T<i ^T,,l-.i T,,»-./->^ 

V3i^l ij \,Juiy-June; 


ZU'f . Z J 


onQ 7n 
zu y » 1 \j 


1 /i A Q n 

IM-H' . OU 


l^iDllb Uuiy-June; 


ioD . c5o 


lot Q C 

193 . o3 


TOO o r\ 

128 .80 


1976/77 (June-May) 


147.05 


149.55 


122.00 


1977/78 (June-May) 


131.30 


140.85 


105.80 


1978/79 (June-May) 


153.70 


165.20 


116.60 


1979/80 (June-May) 


199.65 


N/A 


138.20 


1980/81 (June-May) 


218.45 


N/A 


164.15 


1981/82 (June-M^^) 


193.90 


215.30 


135.40 


1982/83 (June-May) 


178.45 


198.85 


125.25 


1983/84 (June-May) 


186.40 


201.50 


157.90 


1984/85 (June-May) 


175.69 


180.34 


139.43 


1985/86 








June 


165.80 


183.25 


128.50 


July 


155.90 


166.25 


125.65 


Aug 


148.00 


156.63 


114.75 


Sep 


155.75 


159.75 3/ 


113.40 


Oc t 


168.20 


184.10 


111.40 


Nov 


1 "7 "7 in 
i / / . iU 


ion "3/1 


1 1 Q O 
iio .Z^ 


uec 


i / / . O / 


\T n 
IN .V^ . 


1 1 0 0 


Jan 


i / D . Z J 


M n 
IN .(s^ . 


1 1 Q 0 '^ 




1 74 ? S 

J. / '-r . ^ -/ 




1 16 so 


Mar 04 


176.50 


N.Q. 


109.50 


11 


160.50 


N.Q. 


111.50 


18 


165.00 


N.Q. 


112.00 


25 


168.00 


N.Q. 


113.50 


Apr 01 


168.50 


N.Q. 


114.00 


08 


172.00 


N.Q. 


113.00 



1/ Asking prices for Rotterdam 30-day delivery , as shown by Hamburg 
Mercantile Exchange. 

1/ Prior to September 1971 prices for No. 2 Manitoba Northern. 
3/ First two weeks only . 



'^U.S. GOVERNMENT PRINTING OFFICE: 1986-490-916 :i^0253/FAS 



31 



UNITED STATES DEPARTMENT OF AGRICULTURE 
WASHINGTON, D.C. 20250 



FIRST-LASS MAIL 
POSTAGE & FEES PAID 
USDA-FAS 
WASHINGTON, D.C. 
PERMIT No. G-262 



OFFICIAL BUSINESS 
PENALTY FOR PRIVATE USE, $300 



If your address should be changed 



PRINT 



OR TYPE the new address, including ZIP CODE and 
return the whole sheet and/or envelope to: 

FOREIGN AGRICULTURAL SERVICE, Room 4644 So. 
U.S. Department of Agriculture 
Washington, D.C. 20250 



1) Includes wheat flour and products. 

2) Argentina, Australia, Canada, South Africa, and Thailand. 

3) Adjusted for transshipment through Canadian ports: excludes products other 
than flour. 

4) Wheat, rye, corn, barley, oats, sorghum, millet, and mixed grains. 

3) Production data includes all harvest occurring within the July- June year 
indicated, except that small grain crops from the early harvesting Northern 
Hemisphere areas are "moved forward;" i.e., the May 1984 harvests in areas 
such as India, North Africa and southern United States are actually 
included in "1984/85" accounting period which begins July 1, 1984, for 
wheat or October 1, 1984, for coarse grains. 

6) "Bunker weight" basis; not discounted for excess moisture and foreign 
material. 

7) Utilization data are based on an aggregate of differing local marketing 
years. For countries for which stocks data are not available (excluding 
the USSR) utilization estimates represent "apparent" utilization; i.e., 
they are inclusive of annual stock level adjustments. 

8) Stocks data are based on aggregate of differing local marketing years and 
should not be construed as representing world stock level at a fixed point 
in time. Stocks data are not available for all countries and exclude those 
such as the People's Republic of China, and parts of Eastern Europe: The 
world stock levels have been adjusted for estimated year-to-year changes in 
the USSR grain stocks, but do not purport to include the entire absolute 
level of USSR stocks. 

9) Inclusive of Soviet stock changes; see footnote 8. 



This circular was prepared by the Grain and Feed Division, Commodity Programs, 
FAS/USDA, Washington, D.C. 20250. Further information may be obtained by 
writing the Division or telephoning (202) 447-2009. 

Note: The previous report in the series was World Grain Situation/Outlook : 
Foreign Agriculture Circular FG-3-85 March 1986. For further details on the 
world grain production and USSR outlook see "World Crop Production" Foreign 
Agriculture Circular WCP-4-86, April 10, 1986, and "USSR Grain Situation and 
Outlook" Foreign Agriculture Circular SG-4-8b, April 1986. 



FOOTNOTES TO WORLD GRAIN SUMMARY AND TRADE TABLES 



-.3 




3) 



^ Foreign Agriculture Circular 

Agriculture ^ ^ 

Foreign — 

Agricultural ■ _ 

Service 1^ A IMA ' V ^ 



FG-5-86 
May 1986 



Grains 

World Grain Situation and Outlool< 



World market prices for wlieat are currently undergoing an accelerated phase of 
one of ttie most prolonged and severe declines in recent history. This decline 
started in 1981/82 when the current global excess supply first began to 
develop. The accelerated phase of price decline occurring this spring would 
probably have come significantly sooner except that in recent years fixed 
support prices had prevented export prices of U.S. wheat from adjusting 
downward in line with world conditions. On the other hand, had the world 
price fallen more freely sooner, this year's decline might not have been as 
large . 

This month's cover graph provides general perspective on the extent of the 
current decrease in world wheat prices. Based on preliminary forecasts, the 
coming season's world prices are likely to be the lowest since 1977, and 
possibly earlier. 

WORLD WHEAT PRICES 1/ 



U.S. $/MT 






200 






190 
180 




K A 

1 \ / \ 

1 \ / \ ^ 


% 


170 




1 \ / 'y" 




160 








150 
140 






cn 


130 








120 








110 








100 








90 








80 








70 








60 
50 


1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 


1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 _1 — 





in to" ^ 
Co Co Co 



Co ^ 

\ \ 
Co to 



^ 



i 



cb 



>■ Co 

r> ^ Co 
03 Cb 



1/ Based mainly on IWC "indicator" price; 1986/87 is an estimate based on 
the range forecast for the U.S. season average price. 
Supporting data on page 8. 



Approved by the World Agricultural Outlook Board - USDA 



CONTENTS Page 

World Grain Outlook 3 

World Wheat Outlook 4 

World Coarse Grain .Outlook 5 

World Rice Outlook 7 



TABLES 



World Wheat Price (Cover Data) 8 

World Grain Si tuation/Outook Reliability Tables 9 

World Summary Tables: Wheat and Coarse Grains, Wheat, 

Coarse Grains, Rice, Corn, Sorghum, and Barley 10-16 

World Wheat and Flour Trade 17 

World Coarse Grain Trade 18 

World Rice Trade ly 

European Community: Grain Supply-Disappearance 20 

Eastern Europe: Grain Supply-Disappearance 21 

USSR and China: Grain Supply-Disappearance 22 

Wheat: Supply-Disappearance for Selected Hajor Exporters 23 

Coarse Grains: Supply-Disappearance for Selected Major Exporters 24 

U.S. 
U.S. 
U.S. 



Wtieat and Coarse Grains 25 

Wheat, Corn, Sorghum, Barley, Oats and Rye Supply-Disappearance .. 2o 

Rice Supply-Distribution 27 

World Wheat and Coarse Grain Supply/Demand 28 

World Rice Supply/Demand 29 

World Total Grains Supply/Demand 30 

Weekly Export Prices for wheat and Corn: U.S., Canada, 

Australia, and Argentina 31 

Selected World Grain Prices, CIF Rotteraam 32 

World Wheat Prices (Graphics) 33 

World Corn Prices (Graphics) 34 

Footnotes to World Grain Summary Tables 36 



2 



**WORLD GRAIN SITUATION/OUTLOOK** 



This initial forecast for the 1986/87 world wheat and coarse grain situation 
indicates a slight decline in global output, yet a significant increase in 
grain supplies from a year ago due primarily to the large increase in carry-in 
stocks. Projected 1986/87 worldwide utilization in up approximately 40 
million tons, an unusually large jump but not nearly enough to avoid a further 
increase in stocks at the end of the season. World wheat and coarse grain 
trade is expected to increase nearly 7 million tons from the depressed level 
of 1985/86. Although up about 5 percent, world grain trade, except for 
1985/86, remains at the lowest in more than a decade. 

Apart from the drought and PIK influenced year of 1983/84, the last decline in 
global wheat and coarse grain production occurred in 1977. Global production 
in 1986/87 is expected to decline about 17 million tons, largely due to 
sharply lower U.S. corn prospects which are based on a trend yield. 
Interestingly, grain production by the major non-U. S. exporting countries - 
Canada, Australia, Argentina, South Africa, and Thailand - is virtually 
unchanged from the constant level of recent years. 

World grain markets characterized by sluggish trade in recent months have 
shifted their attention to the 1986/87 world grain outlook. This year, in 
addition to normal production-related uncertainties, the outlook is 
complicated by some unusual developments. Foremost among these uncertainties 
is the impact of sharply lower world prices on both competitor and importing 
countries. In grain exporting nations, lower world prices may cause smaller 
than normal increases or possibly some reduced production due to expected 
lower farmer returns. Governments which subsidize farmers and/or exports will 
likely be faced with escalating costs as the differential between domestic and 
world prices widens. In the long-term, rising budgetary pressures may bring 
changes in government policy towards agriculture. 

In importing countries, lower world prices should permit somewhat larger usage 
of imported grain. In the very near term, especially if it appears that 
prices could begin to strengthen, many importing countries may need to rebuild 
working inventories and reserve stocks which have been depleted, particularly 
recently, in anticipation of lower prices. In the long run, lower world grain 
prices may have the more important impact of discouraging expensive 
self-sufficiency programs, thus eventually increasing import demand. 

Sharply lower oil prices may act as a double-edged sword for imported grain 
demand. In oil exporting countries, lower oil revenues could mean reduced 
grain import demand as these countries experience restricted foreign currency 
revenues. However, in oil importing countries, lower oil costs should help to 
stimulate the econoiny as a whole while releasing foreign currency for possible 
grain import use. The Soviet Union remains the single largest grain importing 
nation, and while the impact of lower oil prices will be particularly 
relevant, the crop outturn will likely be the most important determinant for 
import demand. 



3 



**WHEAT** 



Sharply lower world wheat prices are expected to have only a modest impact on 
wheat supplies in 1986/87. To a large extent, the projected record crop of 
approximately 510 million metric tons was planned or in tne ground prior to 
the realization that prices would fall drastically in 1986/87. However, lower 
prices may stimulate utilization and increase wheat import demand causing 
trade to recover somewhat from tne depressed level of 1985/86. At nearly 92 
million tons, forecast world wheat trade is nearly 6 percent above 1985/86, 
but still well short of 1 984/85 's record 106 million tons. Despite record 
utilization, world wheat ending stocks will likely increase to more than 130 
million tons, nearly 30 percent of the forecast 1986/87 utilization. 



MAJOR WHEAT IMPORTING COUNTRIES 

The modest recovery in world wheat import demand in 198b/87 may, to some 
extent, be dependent on the immediate response of some importers to lower 
prices. Wheat prices are expected to be quite competitive with coarse grains 
early in the 1986/87 marketing year leading to a possible surge in wheat 
feeding. This surge, however, is expected to be short-lived as coarse grain 
prices adjust and become more competitive in the fall. Early-season buying 
may also benefit from some spillover of 1985/86 demand as importers may have 
been limiting late season purchases in anticipation of significantly lower 
new-crop prices. A major uncertainty in 1986/87 and future years will be 
whether importers will replenish stocks in response to lower prices or 
continue to limit stocks in recognition of extremely large U.S. and European 
Community (EC) supplies. 

Any further increase in 1986/87 wheat import demand will prooably arise as a 
response to a general pickup in consumption due to lower costs. However, 
major factors including the impacts of lower oil prices, the falling U.S. 
dollar, credit availability, and weather may exert some upward pressure on 
wheat import demand. The Soviet Union will continue to be a major swing 
factor in world wheat trade. Early season USSR crop prospects appear to 
indicate import demand similar to this year of about 16 million tons. 
However, the unknown impact of the recent nuclear accident makes the 
production and demand forecasts even more uncertain than usual. 



rWOR WHEAT EXPORTING COUNTRIES 

Wheat production in 1986/87 among major exporting countries is forecast up 
from 1985/86. Significant increases in Canada's and tne European Community's 
production are only partially offset by reduced crop prospects in Australia. 
Despite these increasing availabilities, 1986/87 export prospects are expected 
to increase only marginally as U.S. exports capture most of the increase in 
world wheat trade. Aggressive early-season marketing of the 1985 crop, 
particularly by Australia and Argentina, may have an impact on 1986/87 as 
these countries will likely reduce export activity until their new crop 
supplies become available later in 1986. 



4 



Rising export subsidy cost will probably influence the European Community's 
decision on wheat export levels in 1986/87. On the side of export expansion, 
the newly agreed co-responsibility levy is expected to generate a significant 
amount of income which has already been earmarked for export subsidies. The 
weakening dollar and declining world wheat prices, however, are expected to 
dramatically increase the cost of EC export restitutions. These factors may 
have already influenced the EC's willingness to grant increasingly large 
export subsidies as evidenced by the slow rate of wheat and flour export 
authorizations at the end of 1985/86. The EC-12 wheat export forecast for 
1985/86 at 16 million tons is lower than last month and hal f-a-mi 1 1 ion tons 
less than forecast 1986/87 EC wheat and flour exports. 



U.S. WHEAT TRADE PROSPECTS 

Prospects for U.S. wheat exports are expected to increase markedly in 1986/87, 
up nearly 20 percent from the unusually low 1985/86 level. At over 30 million 
tons, U.S. wheat exports would account for about 33 percent of forecast world 
wheat trade. Prices for U.S. wheat are expected to be sharply lower in 
1986/87 than in 1985/86. Therefore, other advantages such as a wide variety 
of wheat qualities, numerous port loading facilities, and year-round 
availabilities may again begin to influence importer buying decisions. 



**C0ARSE GRAINS** 



Despite prospects for sharply lower prices, world coarse grain trade in 
1986/87 is expected to recover only slightly from the depressed 1985/86 
level. Global import demand appears sluggish as a result of forcast record 
production outside of the United States, little evidence of expanding 
livestock herds or increased compound feed use, and continuing competition 
from ample exportable supplies of feed-quality wheat and manioc. Foreign 
utilization is expected to grow by about 21 million tons to a new record 
level, but most of the growth will likely occur as a result of better crop 
prospects in China and the USSR. Exporter coarse grain crop prospects are 
forecast to be lower than in 1985/86 because of reduced EC barley and more 
normal Argentine corn production. The marginal increase in world trade and 
increasing competitiveness from U.S. availabilities will likely mean reduced 
competitor export prospects. On the other hand, U.S. exports are forecast to 
be almost 7 million tons higher than in 1985/86, a 16 percent jump. Sharply 
lower nominal prices and the declining dollar should combine to increase the 
competitiveness of U.S. corn and other coarse grains in world markets. 



5 



MAJOR COARSE GRAIN IMPORTING COUNTRIES 



Lower world coarse grain trade in 1985/86 is largely the result of sharply 
lower prospects for Soviet import demand, financial constraints and currency 
limitations in importing countries, and continuing EC policies which encourage 
EC grain and manioc use vis a vis coarse grain imports. In 1986/87 tnese same 
trends are expected to continue, but with sharply lower prices coarse grains 
will be more price competitive with feed wheat and non-grain feed ingredients 
such as manioc. Consequently, there may be a shift oack to more traditional 
feed mixes which favor corn among price-sensitive importers such as Japan, 
Korea, and Taiwan. 

Strong pent-up demand among countries such as Egypt and Mexico could also mean 
increased import demand as these countries respond to lower prices. Among 
these countries, however, tne availability of credit for coarse grain 
purchases may become the limiting factor in their expansion. The Soviet Union 
will probably import significant quantities of coarse grains in 1986/87, but 
the amount will depend on the domestic crop, stocking policies, ana the impact 
of lower oil prices. Lower oil prices will likely have mixed results for 
coarse grain demand, oil importing countries such as Japan and West Europe 
will likely have more funds for grain imports, whereas oil exporting countries 
will probably have reduced foreign exchange earnings and therefore, may lov/er 
coarse grain imports. 

Prospects for EC corn imports in 1985/86 and 1986/87 continue to decline as 
starch producers further adapt their technology to increased wheat and French 
corn use, and as feed compounders utilize more EC feed wheat and barley, 
freeing EC corn for industrial utilization. The EC-IO corn import forecast 
for 1985/86 at 2 million tons is 500,000 tons lower than last montn. However, 
in 1986/87 this policy will have an even greater impact as it influences 
coarse grain imports in Spain and reduces world coarse grain trade by 
approximately 2 to 3 million tons. Spanish compounders and starch producers 
are expected to increase tneir use of EC feed wheat, domestic grains, manioc, 
and levy-free imports such as soybean meal. 



rWOR COARSE GRAIN EXPORTING COUNTRIES 

Coarse grain production among exporting countries is expected to decline 
almost 3 million tons in 1986/87 to approximately 26 million tons. Sharply 
larger Chinese and South African corn availabilities will probably more than 
off-set lower Argentine corn outturn and world oarley supplies. Given average 
weather and production. South Africa is expected to return as a major corn 
exporter. Thailand is expected to again have near-record exportable corn 
supplies. Overall, however, 1986/87 competitior coarse grain exports are 
expected to fall nearly 3 million tons from 1985/86 levels as lower prices 
influence farmers' planting intentions and more competitive U.S. prices allow 
U.S. coarse grains to capture an increasing proportion of the market. Barley 
production is apparaently responding to lower world prices and intensifing 
competition for feed grain dollars from wheat and non-grain feed ingredients. 
In Canada, Australia, and the European Community farmers are shifting away 



6 



from barley and into oilseeds and other crops with more profitable marketing 
prospects. In Australia, the shift is particularly evident as farmers snift 
to wheat which has a guaranteed minimum price. 

Coarse grain export prospects for 198b/8o have continued to diminish 
particularly in the European Community where Darley exports appear to lag last 
year by even more than was previously expected. At o million tons the lC-10 
barley export forecast for 1985/86 reflects export licenses "cfirough the end of 
April of less than 5 million tons and expectations that trade is virtually 
complete for the 1985/86 marketing year. 



U.S. COARSE GRAIfj TRADE PROSPECTS 

Total U.S. coarse grain exports are forecast at ^9 million tons, nearly 7 
million tons higher than in 1985/86. Most of the growth is expected in corn, 
but lower U.S. prices and smaller competitor export availabilities of sorghum 
and barley may also mean expanded exports of tnese U.S. grains. The U.S. 
share of world coarse grain trade is expected to increase from the 1985/3b 
level of 48 percent to a more traditional 55 percent in 1986/87. ^ith only 
marginal increases expected for world coarse grain trade the ingher U.S. 
market share would be mainly offset oy smaller competitor exports. 



**RICE** 



The estimate for world rice trade in calendar year (CY) li?db was increased 
slightly this montn, to over 11.7 million tons. Several estimates were 
changed for exporting countries to reflect increased competition from lower 
U.S. prices. Import estimates were raised for several countries, but tnis was 
offset by a 400,000-ton decrease in the estimate for Nigeria. The estimate 
for world rice production in 1985/8o decreased slightly, mainlj' due to a 
lowering of the estimate for Thailand. 



MAJOR RICE IMPORTING COUNTRIES 

The import estimate for Nigeria in CY 1986 was decreased sharply this moncri, 
reflecting the effectiveness of the Government's ban on imports, and higher 
Nigerian rice and cassava production. Wheat has replaced rice as the chief 
imported staple. The shift in consumption patterns could indicate tnat one of 
the world's most important cash import markets will oe out of the rice trade 
picture for some time to come. Imports oy Sri Lanka are expected to increase 
to 250,000 tons in CY 1986, reflecting government announced impori intentions 
and civil disturbances interfering with rice harvesting ano distribution. Tne 
import estimate for Vietnam was increased to 600,000 tons for CY 1986, due to 
recent market activity. 



7 



MAJOR RICE EXPORTING COUNTRIES 



The export estimate for the United States was raised to reflect the more 
competitive pricing mandated unaer the Food Security Act of 1985. Burma is 
now expected to export 600,000 tons in CY 1986, as export commitments are 
substantially ahead of this time last year, at 500,000 tons. Thailand is 
expected to export 3.9 million tons of rice in CY 198o, only a slight decline 
from CY 1985. 



U.S. RICE TRADE PROSPECTS 

The U.S. export estimate for the 1985/86 market year was lowered to slightly 
more than 1.7 million tons. This reflects the period of stagnation in the 
trade before the implementation of the Rice Title of the Food Security Act of 
1985. The export estimate for CY 1986 was increased to 2.2 million tons, aue 
to prospects of increased sales under the Act. The new forecast for the 
1986/87 market year is 2.4 million tons. 



World Wheat Price 1/ 
1962/63-1985/86 IWC Price Indicator 
1986/87 U.S. Season Average Price Estimate 



Year 



Price 
U.S. $/MT 



Year 



Price 
U.S. $/MT 



62/63 
63/64 
64/65 
65/66 
66/67 
67/63 
69/70 
70/71 
71/72 
72/73 
73/74 
74/75 



64.82 
66. d8 
64.20 
62.87 
67.91 
63.02 
58.47 
63.84 
62.52 
92.17 
189.75 
177.92 



75/76 
76/77 
77/78 
78/79 
79/bO 
80/81 
82/83 
83/84 
84/85 
85/86 
86/87 



160.92 
121 .2d 
120.50 
145.58 
176.67 
190.92 
163.83 
162.50 
156.17 
149. oU 



114.23-125.25 



8 



World Grain Situation and OutlooK. 
Reliability of May Forecasts 1/ 



3-Year Record Ot 
Differences Between Forecast and Final Estimate 



Region : 


Percent 


: Quantity [mr 


) : 


Number ot Years 


Average 


• * 

: Average : 


* 

Small : 


Large : 


Below 
Final 


: Above 
: Final 


WHEAT: 














Production 














World 


3.2 


15.6 


11.2 


17.6 


3 


2 


U.S. 


3.5 


2.5 


1.2 


4.3 


4 


1 


Foreign 


3.4 


14.0 


9.3 


20.0 


3 


2 


Exports 














World 


5.8 


6.1 


1.3 


12.0 


3 


2 


U.S. 


12.9 


4.3 


0.8 


8.2 


3 


2 


Foreign 


4.5 


J .Z 


U .J 


5.9 


/, 


J- 


i.AJUi^oL.l.C Use 














World 


2.8 


13.3 


1.2 


22.4 


3 


2 


U.S. 


5.8 


1.7 


0.6 


4.2 


3 


2 


Foreign 


2.6 


11.7 


0.4 


18.2 


3 


2 


Ending Stocks 














World 


7.0 


7.4 


2.6 


11.0 


3 


2 


U.S. 


10.7 


4.5 


1.1 


9.0 


2 


3 


Foreign 


9.3 


6.0 


0.3 


12.8 


1 


4 


CX)ARSE GRAINS: 2/ 














Production 














World 


2.9 


21.8 


1.1 


54.3 


3 


2 


U.S. 


13.1 


24.8 


1.5 


52.1 


4 


1 


Foreign 


2.5 


13.5 


2.2 


28.2 


1 


4 


Exports 














World 


7.9 


8.2 


2.5 


15.5 


1 


4 


U.S. 


16.2 


8.7 


2.1 


14.4 


0 


5 


Foreign 


9.5 


D ml- 


U.J 


11.3 




L 
















World 


2.1 


15.8 


5.2 


32.4 


1 


4 


U.S. 


5.0 


8.0 


0.4 


15.7 


3 


2 


Foreign 


2.5 


14.5 


0.5 


32.8 


1 


4 


Ending Stocks 














World 


31.0 


32.4 


10.3 


48.1 


4 


1 


U.S. 


52.7 


32.9 


5.2 


41.4 


4 


1 


Foreign 


17.1 


7.2 


4.6 


9.2 


2 


3 


RICE (Milled): 














Production 














World 


3.8 


11.6 


4.2 


21.8 


4 


1 


U.S 


8.7 


0.5 


0.2 


1.0 


2 


3 


Foreign 


3.7 


11.1 


4.6 


22.0 


4 


1 


Exports 














World 


3.3 


0.4 


0.1 


0.7 


2 


3 


U.S. 


8.9 


0.2 


0.0 


0.7 


1 


4 


Foreign 


2.8 


0.3 


0.1 


0.4 


4 


1 


Domestic Use 














World 


3.8 


11.4 


5.5 


19.4 


4 


1 


U.S. 


14.3 


0.3 


0.0 


0.6 


1 


4 


Foreign 


3.8 


11.2 


5.4 


20.0 


4 


1 


Ending Stocks 














World 


24.5 


4.6 


2.7 


9.0 


3 


2 


U.S. 


25.2 


0.4 


0.0 


0.8 


5 


0 


Foreign 


28.3 


4.8 


2.6 


9.1 


3 


2 



1/ Five-year record (1981/82-1985/86) for selected supply and use attributes 
of the differences between the May forecast and the final estimate. Using 
world viheat production as an example, changes between the May forecast and the 
final estimate during the past 5 years have averaged 15.6 million tons, 
ranging from 11.2 to 17.6 million tons. The May forecast has been below the 
final estimate 3 times and above 2 times. 

2/ Includes corn, sorghum, barley, oats, rye, millet and mixed grain. 



9 



TOTAL HKEAT AND COARSE 6RAINS 
TRADE YEARS » 1981/82 - 1985/86 
IN MILLIONS OF METRIC TONS) 





1982/83 


1983/84 


1984/85 


1985/86 


1986/87 












NAY12 


EXPORTS 1) 












SELECTED EXPORTERS 


61.3 


67.3 


6B.0 


66.8 


63.1 


NEST EUROPE 


22.7 


22.3 


29.6 


26.6 


25.9 


USSR 


0.5 


0.5 


1.0 


1.0 


1.0 


OTHERS 


10.1 


9.1 


15.7 


12.3 


12.4 


TOTAL NON-US 


94.6 


99.2 


114.2 


106.7 


102.4 


U.S. 3) 


93.9 


94.7 


93.6 


68.2 


79.5 


HORLD TOTAL 


188.6 


193.9 


207.8 


174.9 


181.9 












r=z==33s=sr3S3Bssssaz=maB. 


IMPORTS 












NEST EUROPE 


20.9 


19.2 


14.5 


10.9 


9.8 


USSR 


31.2 


32.4 


55.4 


30.0 


30.0 


JAPAN 


24.5 


26.6 


26.3 


26.7 


27.6 


EAST EUROPE 


9.4 


8.0 


6.0 


9.1 


6.6 


CHINA 


15.5 


9.8 


7.5 


6.3 


7.5 


OTHERS 


87.1 


97.9 


98.1 


92.0 


100.4 


HORLD TOTAL 


188.6 


193.9 


207.8 


174.9 


181.9 


PRODUCTION 4) 5) 












SELECTED EXPORTERS 


107.0 


118.4 


115.6 


114.4 


114.2 


NEST EUROPE 


161.9 


154.1 


191.1 


176.4 


180.4 


USSR 6) 


172.0 


178.0 


159.0 


177.0 


178.0 


EAST EUROPE 


106.7 


102.5 


115.1 


106.5 


107.6 


CHINA 


150.8 


174.0 


183.3 


169.5 


182.8 


OTHERS 


233.8 


246.5 


250.8 


261. e 


271.8 


TOTAL NON-US 


932.3 


973.5 


1014.9 


1005.6 


1034.8 


U.S. 


326.0 


203.0 


308.3 


340.3 


294.6 


WORLD TOTAL 


1258.2 


1176.5 


1323.2 


1346.0 


1329.4 


UTILIZATION 4) 7) 












NEST EUROPE 


157.4 


158.4 


161.9 


162.6 


163.1 


USSR 6) 


204.0 


206.5 


207.0 


204.0 


206.0 


CHINA 


166.4 


183.4 


185.1 


171.3 


186.1 


OTHERS 


499.9 


518.6 


529.3 


537.7 


551.9 


TOTAL NON-US 


1027.7 


1066.9 


1083.4 


1075.6 


1107.0 


U.S. 


191.6 


181.0 


195.5 


196.0 


201.6 


HORLD TOTAL 


1219.3 


1247.9 


1278.9 


1271.6 


1308.6 


END STOCKS 4) 8) 












TOTAL FOREIGN 9) 


96.2 


97.6 


123.4 


120.1 


126.7 


USSR: STKS CHS 


-1.0 


3.0 


6.0 


0.0 


0.0 


U.S. 


148.6 


76.0 


94.4 


172.1 


186.3 


HORLD TOTAL 


244.8 


173.5 


217.8 


292.2 


313.0 















»: COMBINATION OF JULY/JUNE TRADE YEARS FOR HHEAT AND OCTOBER/SEPTEMBER 
TRADE YEARS FOR COARSE GRAINS. 

NOTE: FOOTNOTES 1 THROUGH 9 APPEAR ON LAST PAGE OF CIRCULAR. 

SOURCE: PREPARED OR ESTIMATED ON THE BASIS OF OFFICIAL STATISTICS OF FOREIGN 
GOVERNMENTS, OTHER FOREIGN SOURCE MATERIALS, REPORTS OF U.S. AGRICULTURAL ATTACHES AND 
FOREIGN SERVICE OFFICERS, RESULTS OF OFFICE RESEARCH, AND RELATED INFORMATION. 

COMMODITY PROGRAMS, FAS, USDA 



10 



WORLD WHEAT AND WHEAT FLOUR SbD TABLE 
JULY/JUNE YEARS 1982/83 - 1986/87 
(IN HILLIONS OF METRIC TONS) 





1982/83 


1983/84 


1984/85 


1985/86 


1986/87 












HAY12 


EXPORTS 1) 












LnPlHUH 


91 4 


Li 1 0 


19 4 

i 7 • t 


17 S 

i f a J 


19 0 

i 7 a V 


HUO 1 nHL in 


0. i 


If) A 


IS \ 

1 J. 0 


IS 7 
1 J. / 


14 S 


AR6ENTINA 


7.5 


9.7 


e.o 


6.1 


4.6 


SUBTOTAL 


37.0 


42.0 


42.7 


39.3 


38.1 


EC- 12 


16,3 


15.5 


17.8 


16.0 


16.5 


USSR 


0.5 


0.5 


1.0 


1.0 


1.0 


OTHERS 


5.0 


5.1 


6.5 


5.3 


5.5 




JO . u 


00 . 1 


AR (\ 

00 . V 


Al A 


A) 7 
01 . Z 


II "5 "^1 


07.7 


■^R 9 

OO. 7 


Ow. I 


7A 0 


■^0 S 

JV. J 


unRi n TfiTfti 


9fl 7 


107 0 




fl7 A 


91 7 


IHPORTS 












EC-12 


4.6 


4.5 


3.0 


2.9 


2.6 


USSR 


20.2 


20.5 


28.1 


16.0 


16.0 


JAPAN 


5.8 


5.9 


5.6 


5.4 


5.5 


Ffi^TFRN FIlRflPF 






2 6 


3 7 


\ s 


CHINA 


13.0 


9 6 

7 ■ U 


7 4 


6 0 


7 0 


flTHFR^ 


50.6 


57.7 


59.4 


53.7 


57 1 


WORLD TOTfil 


98.7 


102.0 


106. 1 


87.6 


91 7 


pRnniiriTriN 












Lnnnun 


7A 7 


7A S 

XO. J 


71 7 


7^^ 9 




AlliiTRAI lA 
nu J I nnL i n 


P 9 

0.7 


77 0 


Ifl 7 

ID. / 


lA 

iu. 0 


IJa 0 


ARGENTINA 


15.0 


12.8 


13.2 


s.s 


9,6 


EC-12 


64.7 


63.8 


82.8 


71.5 


77.1 


USSR 6) 


86.0 


79.0 


73.0 


83.0 


80.0 


EASTERN EUROPE 


34.7 


35.4 


42.1 


38.0 


38.9 


CHINA 


68.4 


81.4 


87.8 


85.6 


B8.5 


INDIA 


37.5 


42.8 


45.5 


44.2 


47,0 


OTHERS 


62.0 


61.4 


60.4 


66.2 


68.8 


1 U 1 ML nun UO 


T\/0 * 7 




444 A 


4^7 7 

^ j/ . L 


4SI 1 

tJl a 1 




/J.J 


AS 9 

OJ. 7 


70 A 

/ V . 0 


kk 0 
00. V 


J7 a J 


WORLD TOTAL 


479.1 


490.9 


515.2 


503.2 


510.4 




============ 


============== 


================== 


ss===s========s=s==ss: 


:s3Ss=3====a==S3SSB=a== 


UTILIZATION 7) 












U.S. 


24.7 


30.2 


31.4 


29.5 


31.8 


USSR 6) 

W W Wl \ W J 


105.7 


97.0 


96. 1 


98.0 


95.0 


LM 1 NH 


Ql A 




7J. 1 


11. 0 


OS s 
79. J 


riTHFR^ 


LJa . 1 


7Afl 1 

LOO . i 


777 1 

£ / / . 0 


774 A 

LI ^ »0 


7S^ 9 

^00 a 7 


TflTAI NriN-il ^ 

1 u 1 nL. iiun u ■ J ■ 


44"^ ? 

TtJ. Z 


4SA t 

*t JO ■ i 


4Afl 7 


4A4 7 


474 4 

T/ T . T 


WORLD TOTAL 


467.9 


486.3 


500.0 


493.7 


506.3 












=s= ====== ============= 


END STOCKS 8; 












TOTAL FOREIGN 9) 


55.0 


62.9 


77.4 


74.5 


81.0 


USSR: STKS CHG 


0.0 


2.0 


4.0 


0.0 


0.0 


U.S. 


41.2 


38.1 


38.8 


51.1 


48.8 


WORLD TOTAL 


96.3 


101. 0 


116.2 


125.6 


129.7 















NOTE: FOOTNOTES 1 THROUGH 9 APPEAR ON LAST PAGE OF CIRCULAR. 

SOURCE: PREPARED OR ESTIMATED ON THE BASIS OF OFFICIAL STATISTICS OF FOR 
OTHER FOREIGN SOURCE MATERIALS, REPORTS OF U.S. AGRICULTURAL ATTACHES AN 
RESULTS OF OFFICE RESEARCH, AND RELATED INFORHATION. 

COMMODITY PROGRAMS, FAS, USDA 



11 



HORLD COARSE GRAINS SID TABLE 
OCTOBER/SEPTEHBER YEARS 1982/83 - 1986/87 
(IN MILLIONS OF METRIC TONS) 







1700/ OS 


1 oat ID1 


lYOJ/DO 


1706/87 












HAY 12 


CYPnDTC 












CANADA 


7.1 


5.5 


3.3 


4.4 


5.0 


AUSTRALIA 


1.0 


5.6 


7.4 


5.9 


4.0 


ARGENTINA 


11.6 


10.9 


10.6 


11.9 


10.4 


suuin HrniLH 




A 1 
V. 1 


A 7 


I. J 




THAILAND 


2.3 


3.3 


3.4 


3.8 


3.6 


SUBTOTAL 


24.3 


25.3 


25.3 


27.5 


25.0 


NEST EUROPE 


5.2 


5.4 


10.5 


9.4 


8.0 


LninH 


A 1 

Va 1 




J. / 






OTHERS 


6.2 


s.o 


4.8 


3.8 


4.0 


TOTAL NON-U. S. 


35.9 


36.1 


46.2 


45.1 


41.2 


U.S. 3) 


54.0 


55.8 


55.5 


42.2 


49.0 


HORLD TOTAL 


89.9 


91.9 


101.7 


87.3 


90.2 


IMPORTS 












HEST EUROPE 


15.6 


13.9 


10.9 


7.3 


6.4 


USSR 


11.0 


11.9 


27.3 


14.0 


14.0 


JAPAN 


18.? 


20.7 


20.7 


21.3 


22.1 


EASTERN EUROPE 


4.9 


4.2 


3.4 


5.5 


3.2 


CHINA 


2.5 


0.2 


0.1 


0.3 


0.5 


OTHERS 


37.1 


41.0 


39.3 


39.0 


44.1 


HORLD TOTAL 


89.9 


91.9 


101.7 


87.3 


90.2 



PRODUCTION 5) 



CANADA 


26.5 


20.9 


22.0 


24.7 


23.3 


AUSTRALIA 


3.9 


9.4 


8.6 


7.8 


6.9 


ARGENTINA 


17.8 


17.4 


18.6 


18.3 


17.7 


SOUTH AFRICA 


4.5 


5.1 


8.7 


9.4 


9.9 


THAILAND 


3.7 


4.3 


4.7 


5.5 


5.4 


HEST EUROPE 


93.6 


86.1 


103.7 


100.9 


99.1 


USSR 6) 


86.0 


99.0 


86.0 


94.0 


98.0 


EAST EUROPE 


72.0 


67.1 


73.0 


68.6 


68.7 


CHINA 


82.4 


92.7 


95.4 


83.9 


94.3 


OTHERS 


137.9 


146.5 


149.5 


155.4 


160.3 



TOTAL NON-US 


528,4 


548.4 


570.3 


568.4 


583.7 


U.S. 


250.7 


137.1 


237.7 


274.3 


235.3 


HORLD TOTAL 


779.1 


685.5 


808.0 


842.8 


819.0 


UTILIZATION 7) 
U.S. 
USSR 6) 
CHINA 
OTHERS 


166.9 
98.3 

85.0 

401.2 


150.7 
109.5 
92.4 
408.9 


164.1 
110.9 
89.9 
413.9 


166.5 
106.0 
79.7 
425.7 


169.7 
111.0 
90.6 
431.0 


TOTAL NON-U. S. 


584.5 


610.8 


614.7 


611.4 


632.6 


HORLD TOTAL 


751.4 


761.5 


778.8 


777.9 


802.3 


END STOCKS B) 
TOTAL FOREIGN 
USSR: STKS CHG 
U.S. 


41.1 
-1.0 

107.4 


34.7 
1.0 

37.9 


46.0 
2.0 

55.6 


45. 6 
0.0 

121.0 


♦5.7 
0.0 

137.5 


HORLD TOTAL 


148.5 


72.6 


101.7 


166.5 


183.2 



NOTE: FOOTNOTES 1 THROUGH 9 APPEAR ON LAST PAGE OF CIRCULAR. 

SOURCE: PREPARED OR ESTIMATED ON THE BASIS OF OFFICIAL STATISTICS OF F0REI3N GOVERNMENTS, OTHER 
FOREIGN SOURCE MATERIALS, REPORTS OF U.S. AGRICULTURAL ATTACHES AND FOREIGN SERVICE OFFICERS, 



12 



WORLD RICE StD TABLE 
TRADE, PRODUCTION, UTILIZATION AND STOCKS II 
(IN NILLIONS OF METRIC TONS) 





CAL YR 


CAL YR 


CAL YR 


CAL YR 


CAL 1986 


CAL1986 




1982 


1983 


1984 


1985 


APRU 


nAY12 


EXPORTS 2> 














DUnnn 


fl 7 


n fl 

v.O 


ft 7 


V. tJ 


ft s 


V.O 


CHINA 


0.5 


0.6 


1.2 


1.0 


0,9 


0.9 


JHrHH 




V. 0 


ft 1 

V. 1 


ft ft 


ft ft 


A A 

V. V 


PAKISTAN 


o.e 


1.3 


1.1 


1.0 


0.9 


0.9 


THAILAND 


3.6 


3.7 


4,5 


4.0 


4.3 


3.9 


OTHERS 


3.4 


2.9 


2.9 


3.1 


3.3 


3.2 


TOTAL NON-U. S. 


9.3 


9,6 


10,4 


9.5 


9.8 


9.5 


U.S. 


2.5 


2.3 


2.1 


1.9 


1.8 


2.2 


NORLD TOTAL 


11.8 


11.9 


12,6 


11.4 


11.6 


11.7 




======I=======Z 


;=======z======: 


:==BSZS=XE==£aS3CSSZSX 




IBS KSSSSBBBBSUSSSBBEXSeSSSSS 33=3333 


IMPORTS 2) 














EC-12 


1.3 


1.0 


1.3 


1.2 


1.3 


1.4 


INDONESIA 


0.3 


1.2 


0.4 


.0 


.0 


.0 


IRAN 


0.6 


0.7 


0.7 


0.6 


0,8 


0.8 


IRAQ 


OA 


0.5 


0.5 


0.5 


0.6 


0.6 


{/nRFA RPP 


0.2 


0.2 


.0 


0.0 


0.0 


0.0 


NIGERIA 


0.7 


0.7 


0.5 


0.4 


0.5 


0.1 


SAUDI ARABIA 


0.5 


0.5 


0,5 


0.5 


0.5 


0.5 


OTHERS 


7.8 


7.1 


8,7 


8,2 


7.9 


8.4 


NGRLD TOTAL 


11.8 


11.9 


12.6 


11.4 


11.6 


11.7 






=============== 


:=z=z=======zx:=zz=r» 


r=r=r==zraz=ra 


33a=B=333SS3K=3SS 


:3B5BS=Br===X=e3XBe 


PRODUCTION 3) 


1981/82 


1982/83 


1983/84 


1984/85 


1984/85 


1985/86 


ARGENTINA 


0.4 


0.3 


0,5 


0.4 


0,4 


0.4 


AUSTRHLlh 


0.9 


0.5 


0.6 


0.9 


0,7 


0.7 


BANSLADESH 


20.5 


21,3 


21.8 


22.0 


23.1 


23.2 


BRAZIL 


9.2 


7.8 


9.0 


9,0 


8.8 


9.0 


BURMA 


14.2 


14.4 


14.4 


14.8 


14.9 


14.9 


CHINA 


144.0 


161.2 


168.9 


178.3 


167.0 


167.0 




1.0 


1.0 


1 . J 


1 , f 


1.3 


1.9 


INDIA 


80.0 


70.7 


90.2 


88.0 


91.5 


91.5 




32. S 


33.6 


35.3 


38. 1 


39.0 


39.0 


JAPAN 


12.8 


12.8 


13.0 


14.8 


14.6 


14,6 




7 1 




7 A 


fl ft 
o.u 


7.9 


8,3 


PAKISTAN 


5.2 


5.2 


5.0 


5.0 


4.4 


4,4 


1 nHiLHNu 


t? Q 


la. 7 




to 7 


19.8 


19,3 


OTHERS 


58.2 


58.9 


61,0 


62.1 


63.8 


63.0 


TOTAL NON-US 


404.4 


412.5 


448,2 


461.7 


457.1 


457.1 


U.S. 


8.3 


7.0 


4,5 


6.3 


6.2 


6,2 


WORLD TOTAL 


412.7 


419.5 


452,7 


468.0 


463.3 


463.3 

XEXESBEEEESSEEEXEX 


UTILIZATION 7) 










=SS=3==BSSE=B3E== 




BANGl ADFSH 

u n 11 UL. n u (. ^ n 


14. 1 


14.6 


14.9 


14.9 


15.8 


15.8 


CHINA 


100.5 


112.4 


117.1 


123,9 


116.1 


116.1 


INDIA 


Ki 1 
j^. 1 


to s 

to* J 


JO. £ 


K7 ft 


60.3 


60,3 


INDONESIA 


22.3 


23.7 


25.3 


25.2 


26.2 


26.2 


KOREA. REP. 


5.4 


5.3 


5.5 


5,5 


5.6 


5.6 


OTHERS 


82.8 


83.2 


85.2 


85.6 


87.3 


87,0 


TOTAL NON-U. S. 


279.2 


287.6 


306.3 


312,1 


311.4 


311.0 


U.S. 


2.2 


2.0 


1,8 


1,9 


1.9 


1.9 


WORLD TOTAL 


281.5 


289.6 


308.1 


314.0 


313,3 


312,9 












B33X33BSE3S3BBS3SI 


E:S ===B=SBXS3XEXS33 


END STOCKS 4) 














DnllDLhuCSn 


v. 0 


ft ^ 


ft 1 




0.3 


0.3 


INDIA 


5,0 


3.5 


6.0 


7,5 


8.0 


8.0 


inuuriL J In 




1 fl 






2.7 


2.7 


KOREA, REP. 


1.4 


1.5 


1.3 


1.4 


1.5 


1.5 


THAILAND 


1.4 


0.8 


1.1 


1.3 


1.7 


1.8 


OTHERS 


9.3 


7.2 


5.7 


6.4 


6.9 


6,9 


TOTAL FOREISN 


19.7 


15.0 


15.8 


19.8 


21.1 


21.1 


U.S. 


1.6 


2.3 


1.5 


2.0 


2.8 


2.8 


WORLD TOTAL 


21.3 


17.3 


17.3 


21.9 


23,9 


23,9 












B33B£BSBXB3BXBaBBB 



1) PRODUCTION IS ON ROUGH BASIS; TRADE, UTILIZATION AND STOCKS ARE ON HILLED BASIS. 

2) TRADE DATA ON CALENDAR YEAR BASIS, 

3) THE WORLD RICE HARVEST STRETCHES OVER 6-8 MONTHS. THUS, 1978/79 PRODUCTION REPRESENTS THE CROP 

HARVESTED IN LATE 1978 AND EARLY 1979 IN THE NORTHERN HEMISPHERE AND THE CROP HARVESTED IN EARLY 1979 IN THE SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE, 
CROP HARVESTED IN EARLY 1979 IN THE SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE. 

4) STOCKS DATA ARE BASED ON AN A6GRE6ATE0F DIFFERENT LOCAL MARKETING YEARS AND SHOULD 

NOT BE CONSTRUED AS REPRESENTING WORLD STOCK LEVELS AT A FIXED POINTIN TIME. STOCKS DATA 
ARE NOT AVAILABLE FOR ALL COUNTRIES AND EXCLUDE THOSE SUCH AS NORTH KOREA AND CHINA. 



13 



WORLD CORN SiD TABLE 
OCTOBER/SEPTEHBER YEARS 1982/83 - 1986/87 
UN NILLIDNS OF METRIC TONS) 





1982/83 


1983/84 


1984/85 


1985/86 


1986/87 












MfiV1 1 

nni 1 1 


EXPORTS 












HnDCn 1 Inn 


OmtM 


J. 7 


7 C\ 


0 ^ 

7, 3 


D.J 


SOUTH AFRICA 


2.3 


0.1 


0.5 


1,4 


2.0 


TUS?I AMR 


7 1 

iml 


0. V 


J. V 


0, J 


T T 


CHINA 


0.1 


0.4 


5.2 


4.0 


4.0 


OTHERS 


5.0 




3.7 


4.0 




3.6 


3.5 


TOTAL NON-US 


15.9 


13.1 


19.7 




22.0 


21.3 


U.S. 3) 


47.5 


47.4 


46.7 


36.1 




41.3 


WORLD TOTAL 


63.4 


60.5 


66.4 


58.1 


62.6 


IMPORTS 












HEX ICO 


4.0 


2.5 


1.7 


2.5 


3 5 


EC-12 


11.5 


9.8 


9.1 


6.0 


5.1 


USSR 


6.5 


9.5 


20.3 


11.3 


10,7 


JAPAN 


14.5 


14.5 


14.0 


14.3 


15,6 


EAST EUROPE 


3.3 


1.9 


1.4 


2.7 


1.7 


CHINA 


2.4 


0.1 


0.1 


0.2 


0.4 


TAINAN 


3.2 


3.0 


3.2 


3.2 


3.3 


KOREA, REP. 


3.9 


3.3 


3.0 


3,7 


3.9 


OTHERS 


14.1 


15.9 


13.7 


14,2 


18.3 


WORLD TOTAL 


63.4 




60.5 


66.4 




58.1 




62,6 


PRODUCTION A) 5) 










■sj=r=g-r-=as=-r8r =?•■ 


BRAZIL 


19.5 


21.0 


22.0 


19.0 


22.5 


hekico 


7.0 


9.3 


9.9 


10.0 


9.0 


ARBENTINA 


9.0 


9.2 


11.5 


13.0 


12.5 


SOUTH AFRICA 


4.1 


4.4 


7.8 


8.5 


9.0 


THAILAND 


3.5 


4,0 


4.4 


5.2 


5.1 


EC-12 


22.6 


21.8 


23.2 


25 3 




USSR 6) 


13.5 


12.0 


12.5 


13.5 


16.5 


EAST EUROPE 


36.5 


33.4 


35.7 


33.4 


34.9 


CHINA 


60.3 


68.2 


73,4 


64.0 


72,0 


OTHERS 


53.5 


56.8 


62.0 


62.9 


64.9 


TOTAL NON-US 




229.3 


240.0 


262.3 


254.8 




271.5 


U.S. 




209.2 


106.0 


194.9 


225.2 




192.4 


WORLD TOTAL 


438.5 


346.1 


457.3 


480.0 


463.9 


UTILIZATION 7) 












ncu 1 u'jnur u 






■^7 9 

. 7 


53 1 




USSR 6) 


19.8 


20.7 


32.8 


22.9 


2b.l 


JAPAN 


14 7 


14.5 


14.2 


14 3 


15,6 


CHINA 


62.8 


67.9 


68.3 


60.2 


68.4 


OTHERS 


146.2 


152.8 


156.7 


159.7 


170.0 


TOTAL NON-US 


280.2 


290.9 


304.9 


290.2 


313.3 


U.S. 


137.6 


121.7 


131.3 


132.9 


135.9 


WORLD TOTAL 


417.8 


412.6 


436.2 


423.0 


449.2 


END STOCKS 4) 8) 












TOTAL FOREIGN 9) 


17.3 


14.6 


19.4 


19.6 


19.6 


U.S. 


89.5 


25.6 


41.9 


98.7 


113.3 


WORLD TOTAL 


106.7 


40.2 


61.3 


118.3 


133.0 



t: COMBINATION OF JULY/JUNE TRADE YEARS FOR WHEAT AND OCTOBER/SEPTEHBER 
TRADE YEARS FOR COARSE GRAINS. 

MOTE: FOOTNOTES 1 THROUGH 9 APPEAR ON LAST PAGE OF CIRCULAR. 

SOURCE: PREPARED OR ESTIMATED ON THE BASIS OF OFFICIAL STATISTICS OF FOREIGN 
GOVERNMENTS, OTHER FOREIGN SOURCE MATERIALS, REPORTS OF U.S. AGRICULTURAL ATTACHES AND 
FOREIGN SERVICE OFFICERS, RESULTS OF OFFICE RESEARCH, AND RELATED INFORMATION. 

COMMODITY PROGRAMS, FAS, USOA 



14 



WORLD SORGHUM S^D TABLE 
OCTOBER/SEPTEMBER YEARS 1902/83 - 1986/87 
(IN MILLIONS OF HETRIC TONS) 





1982/83 


1983/84 


1984/85 


1985/86 


1986/87 












Hh¥12 


EXPORTS 












AUSTRALIA 


0.3 


1.4 




1.0 


1.0 


ARGENTINA 


4.9 


4.8 


3.4 


2.2 


1.7 


OTHERS 


1.0 


0.7 


1.2 


1.2 


1.0 


TOTAL NON-US 


6.2 


6.9 


5.8 


4.4 


3.7 


U.S. 3) 


5.4 


6.2 


7.6 


5.7 


6.6 


NORLD TOTAL 


11.6 


13.1 


13.4 


10. 1 


10.3 


IMPORTS 












USSR 


2.3 


1.9 


1.5 


0.5 


0.6 


JAPAN 


2.7 


4.2 


4.6 


5.0 


4.5 


Mtnco 


7 O 
i.Z 


i.i 




1 . 4 


T ft 


VENEZUELA 


0.4 


0.2 


0.9 


1.0 


1.0 


T A T L) Akl 

TAIKAN 


A L 

v.a 


0.6 


0. D 


0.6 


ft c 

0.5 


KOREA, REP 


0.2 


0.4 


0.3 


0.3 


0.4 


SAUDI ARABIA 


0.6 


0.3 


0.2 


0.3 


0.4 


ISRAEL 


0.3 


0.6 


0.5 


0.5 


0.5 


OTHERS 


1.2 


1.7 


2.4 


0.5 


0.4 


WORLD TOTAL 


11.6 


13.1 


13.4 


10.1 




10.3 


PRODUCTION 4) 5) 










====r===============: 


AUSTRALIA 


1.0 


1.9 


1.4 


1.3 


1.3 


ARGENTINA 


7.6 


7.2 


5.9 


4.5 


4.2 


SOUTH AFRICA 


0.2 


0.5 


0.6 


0.5 


0.7 


TUA T 1 AUVl 


f\ 


f\ 7 
0. 0 




A i 
U. 4 


ft i( 
V. 4 


MEXICO 


2.8 


4.0 


4.1 


3.7 


3.8 


inuiH 


1 ft D 
lUi 0 


11.7 




lU. D 


1 1 . U 


CHINA 


7.0 


8.4 


7.7 


6.5 


7.4 


U7CCDT A 

NlbtKlft 


4. 1 


7 


7 7 
0. / 


4 ft 


k 7 
4. 0 


SUDAN 


1.9 


1.8 


1.2 


4.5 


4.0 


DTUCDC 

UlntKb 


0 7 
0.0 


7 0 
1,1 


7 □ 
/ . 0 


0 7 
0. / 


0 0 
0.0 


TOTAL NON-US 


43.9 


46.5 


44.0 


44.6 


45.9 


U.S. 


21.2 


12.4 


22.0 


28.3 


21.6 


WORLD TOTAL 


65.1 


58. 9 


66.0 


72.8 




67.4 


UllLUHllUN /) 












U.S. 


12.3 


10.7 


14.5 


15.1 


15.1 


USSR fa) 


2,9 


2.0 


1.5 


0.6 


0.6 


CHINA 


6.9 


8.3 


7.2 


6.1 


7.2 


MEXICO 


6.1 


6.3 


6.4 


6.1 


5.9 


JAPAN 


2.8 


3.7 


4.7 


4.9 


4.5 


OTHERS 


31.8 


31.9 


31.9 


33.8 


34. 1 


WORLD TOTAL 


62.9 


63.0 


66.3 


66.6 


67.4 


END STOCKS A) 8) 












TOTAL FOREIGN 9) 


3.4 


3.9 


3.7 


3.8 


4.0 


U.S. 


9.8 


5.3 


5.2 


11.4 


11.3 


WORLD TOTAL 


13.3 


9.2 


9.0 


15.2 


15.3 















♦; COMBINATION OF JULY/JUNE TRADE YEARS FOR WHEAT AND OCTOBER/SEPTEMBER 
TRADE YEARS FOR COARSE GRAINS. 

NOTE! FOOTNOTES 1 THROUGH 9 APPEAR ON LAST PAGE OF CIRCULAR. 

SOURCE: PREPARED OR ESTIMATED ON THE BASIS OF OFFICIAL STATISTICS OF FOREIGN 
GOVERNMENTS, OTHER FOREIGN SOURCE MATERIALS, REPORTS OF U.S. AGRICULTURAL ATTACHES AND 
FOREIGN SERVICE OFFICERS, RESULTS OF OFFICE RESEARCH, AND RELATED INFORMATION. 

COMMODITY PROGRAMS, FAS, USDA 



15 



WORLD BARLEY SiD TABLE 
OCTOBER/SEPTEHBER YEARS 1982/83 - I98i/87 
(IN HILLIONS OF METRIC TONS) 





1982/83 


1983/84 


1984/85 


1985/86 


1986/87 












NAY 12 


EXPORTS 












CANADA 


6.1 


4.2 


2.5 


3.5 


4.0 


AUSTRALIA 


0.6 


3.7 


5.6 


4.5 


2.6 


EC-12 


3.9 


3.8 


8.0 


7.0 


6.0 


OTHERS 


1.9 


1.5 


2.0 


2.2 


1.9 


TOTAL NON-US 


12.5 


13.3 


18.0 


17.2 


14.5 


U.S. 3) 


1.0 


2.1 


1.2 


0.3 


1.0 


KORLD TOTAL 


13.4 


15.4 


19.2 


17.5 


15.5 


IMPORTS 












EC-12 


1.9 


0.8 


0.1 


0.1 


0.2 


USSR 


2.2 


0.5 


4.7 


2.0 


2.5 


JAPAN 


1.3 


1.6 


1.7 


1.6 


1.6 


EAST EUROPE 


1.5 


2.0 


1.7 


2,6 


1.4 


SAUDI ARABIA 


2.5 


5.1 


5.4 


5.5 


5.6 


OTHERS 


4.1 


5.4 


5.5 


5.7 


4.3 


WORLD TOTAL 


13.4 


15.4 


19.2 


17.5 


15.5 


PRODUCTION 4) 5) 












CANADA 


14.0 


10.2 


10.3 


12.2 


11.5 


AUSTRALIA 


1.9 


4.9 


5.6 


4.8 


3.9 


EC-12 


46.7 


42.9 


54.5 


50.5 


49.7 


USSR 


41.0 


54.0 


42.1 


47.2 


48.3 


CHINA 


6.9 


6.9 


5.6 


5.2 


6.2 


EAST EUROPE 


17.4 


15.4 


17.1 


16.7 


16.8 


OTHERS 


25.6 


23.6 


24.0 


26.5 


26.0 


TOTAL NON-US 


153.5 


157.8 


159.2 


163.1 


162.5 


U.S. 


11.2 


11.1 


13.0 


12.8 


13.1 


NORLD TOTAL 


164.7 


168.9 


172.2 


176.0 


175.6 


UTILIZATION 7) 












WEST EUROPE 


49.5 


49.1 


50.1 


50.0 


50.1 


USSR 6) 


44.0 


53.8 


44.5 


49.0 


50.8 


EAST EUROPE 


17.8 


16.B 


18.6 


19.1 


18.3 


OTHERS 


41.7 


44.8 


40.7 


45. 1 


44.4 


TOTAL NON-US 


153.0 


164.5 


153.9 


163.2 


163.6 


U.S. 


8.9 


9.8 


10.3 


10.2 


10.3 


WORLD TOTAL 


162.0 


174.3 


164.2 


173.5 


173.9 


END STOCKS 4) 8) 












TOTAL FOREIGN 9) 


15.0 


10.2 


16.9 


17.2 


17.0 


U.S. 


4.7 


4.1 


5.4 


7.6 


9.4 


WORLD TOTAL 


19.7 


14.3 


22.3 


24.8 


26.4 















COMBINATION OF JULY/JUNE TRADE YEARS FOR WHEAT AND OCTOBER/SEPTEHBER 
TRADE YEARS FOR COARSE GRAINS. 

NOTE: FOOTNOTES 1 THROUGH 9 APPEAR ON LAST PAGE OF CIRCULAR. 

SOURCE: PREPARED OR ESTIMATED ON THE BASIS OF OFFICIAL STATISTICS OF FOREIGN 
GOVERNMENTS, OTHER FOREIGN SOURCE MATERIALS, REPORTS OF U.S. AGRICULTURAL ATTACHES AND 
FOREIGN SERVICE OFFICERS, RESULTS OF OFFICE RESEARCH, AND RELATED INFORMATION. 

COMMODITY PROGRAMS, FAS, USDA 



16 



HORLD HHEftT AND FLOUR TRADE 
JULY/JUNE YEARS 1982/83 - 1986/87 
(IN THOUSAND OF METRIC TONS) 





1982/83 


1983/84 


1984/85 


1985/86 


1986/87 
MAY 12 


EXPORTS 












UNITED STATES 


39939 


3BB60 


38092 


26000 


30500 


CANADA 


21368 


21765 


19400 


17500 


19000 


ARGENTINA 


7501 


9661 


8034 


6100 


4600 


AUSTRftLIft 


C 1 7 1 

ol j1 


lv3do 


13/6 J 


Ij/UU 


14OU0 


EC-12 


16320 


15450 


17780 


16000 


16500 


U. W. tUnUrt 


I 1 

I I JD 




1 JlO 






EAST EUROPE 


2370 


2255 


4100 


2625 


2600 


USSR 


500 


500 


1000 


1000 


1000 


TURKEY 


573 


600 


517 


400 


500 


OTHER COUNTRIES 


856 


818 


598 


1030 


1100 


WORLD TOTAL 


98716 


101970 


106102 


87595 


91650 


IMPORTS 












EC-12 


4606 


4546 


2969 


2850 


2600 


0. M. EUROPE 


645 


818 


630 


780 


807 


EAST EUROPE 


4523 


3757 


2602 


3650 


3450 


JAPAN 


5795 


5B57 


5603 


5400 


5500 


CHINA 


13000 


9600 


7400 


6000 


7000 


USSR 


20200 


20500 


28100 


16000 


16000 


EGYPT 


5350 


6712 


6600 


6700. 


7000 


ALGERIA 


2548 


2B40 


2800 


2400 


2700 


HOROCCO 


1331 


2128 


2450 


2100 


1600 


NIGERIA 


1500 


1600 


1750 


1500 


1600 


TUNISIA 


695 


1035 


858 


500 


1250 


LIBYA 


449 


380 


400 


400 


500 


SUDAN 


448 


450 


600 


665 


700 


MEXICO 


50 


566 


491 


225 


200 


BRAZIL 


3600 


3948 


5400 


3000 


3100 


CHILE 


1080 


1001 


750 


600 


600 


PERU 


1006 


970 


863 


950 


950 


VENEZUELA 


826 


925 


1028 


1000 


1050 


ECUADOR 


325 


35B 


360 


380 


3B0 


BOLIVIA 


202 


250 


260 


270 


290 


CUBA 


1100 


1300 


1300 


1300 


1350 


COLOMBIA 


574 


650 


600 


600 


600 


ISRAEL 


625 


500 


700 


600 


625 


JORDAN 


335 


335 


384 


390 


400 


LEBANON 


373 


375 


375 


375 


390 


SAUDI ARABIA 


700 


336 


300 


100 


100 


SYRIA 


430 


935 


1280 


900 


1200 


YEMEN, AR 


450 


600 


575 


600 


650 


IRAN 


1405 


3700 


3200 


2500 


3000 


IRAQ 


1800 


3000 


3000 


2500 


3000 


MALAYSIA 


541 


602 


640 


645 


670 


VIETNAM 


600 


600 


600 


600 


600 


BANGLADESH 


1500 


1876 


1898 


1400 


1600 


INDONESIA 


1485 


1587 


1375 


1350 


1450 


PAKISTAN 


580 


366 


1036 


1600 


350 


TURKEY 


50 


350 


1048 


1000 


1000 


INDIA 


3700 




ISO 


inn 


inn 


SRI LANKA 


474 


648 


650 


580 


600 




t Rnri 

1 oou 




Jill 


i7VV 


J./VV 


PHILIPPINES 


925 


693 


785 


745 


780 


TAINAN 


737 


655 


780 


750 


800 


MJntn, uri\ 




jUv 


JJU 


j3V 




SINGAPORE 


200 


200 


200 


200 


200 


SUBTOTAL 


88843 


92900 


96451 


77655 


79992 


OTHER COUNTRIES 


5102 


6153 


7062 


670B 


7222 


UNACCOUNTED 1) 


4771 


2917 


2589 


3232 


4436 


WORLD TOTAL 


98716 


101970 


106102 


87595 


91650 



1) THIS REPRESENTS EXPORTS NOT ACCOUNTED FOR IN REPORTS FROM IMPORTING 

COUNTRIES. SINCE THIS IS RECURRING, IT IS TAKEN INTO ACCOUNT IN THE ASSESSMENT OF 

THE YEAR AHEAD. 

SOURCE: PREPARED OR ESTIMATED ON THE BASIS OF OFFICIAL STATISTICS OF FOREIGN 
GOVERNMENTS, OTHER FOREIGN SOURCE MATERIALS, REPORTS OF U.S. AGRICULTURAL 
ATTACHES AND FOREIGN SERVICE OFFICERS, RESULTS OF OFFICE RESEARCH, AND RELATED 
INFORMATION. 

COMMODITY PROGRAMS. FAS, USDA 



17 



WORLD COARSE GRAIN TRADE 
OCTOBER/SEPTEHBER YEARS 1982/83 - 1986/87 
(IN THOUSAND OF METRIC TONS) 





1982/83 


1983/84 


1984/85 


1985/86 


19B67B7 












HAY12 


EXPORTS 












UNITED STATES 


53990 


55798 


55495 


42200 


49000 


CANADA 


7074 


5482 


3316 


4400 


5000 


ARGENTINA 


11624 


10854 


10593 


11865 


10400 


AUSTRALIA 


979 


5555 


7371 


5925 


4000 


EC- 12 


4291 


4257 


8824 


7500 


6500 


0. «. EUROPE 


944 


1152 


1647 


1865 


1500 


EAST EUROPE 


3266 


3032 


3110 


1910 


2400 


THAILAND 


2326 


3316 


3353 


3825 


3600 


SOUTH AFRICA 


2300 


75 


657 


1500 


2000 


CHINA 


100 


475 


5690 


4400 


4200 


SUBTOTAL 


86894 


89996 


100056 


85390 


88600 


OTHER COUNTRIES 


2959 


1937 


1675 


1935 


1600 


HORLD TOTAL 


89853 


91933 


101731 


87325 




90200 


IMPORTS 






============== 


===--====—== === 


=== =x--===rr=— .==r 


EC-12 


14023 


12516 


9565 


6200 


5100 


0. «. EUROPE 


1589 


1354 


1334 


1105 


1290 


EAST EUROPE 


4B52 


4218 


3391 


5475 


3150 


JAPAN 


18693 


20721 


20716 


21260 


22100 


CHINA 


2548 


231 


140 


250 


500 


USSR 


11000 


11900 


27300 


14000 


14000 


EGYPT 


1516 


1500 


1700 


1750 


2000 


ALGERIA 


750 


1143 


1168 


690 


1450 


HOROCCO 


140 


235 


248 


180 


180 


TUNISIA 


169 


296 


229 


275 


4S0 


SOUTH AFRICA 


767 


2922 


865 


200 


0 


CANADA 


750 


318 


554 


300 


300 


MEXICO 


7232 


5856 


4213 


3900 


5600 


BRAZIL 


115 


560 


472 


2850 


600 


CHILE 


340 


66 


20 


80 


100 


PERU 


446 


467 


302 


255 


380 


VENEZUELA 


1318 


1620 


1605 


1300 


1500 


JAMAICA 


166 


190 


140 


140 


ISO 


CUBA 


465 


429 


581 


500 


S30 


COLOMBIA 


304 


181 


320 


340 


400 


ISRAEL 


1229 


1085 


1043 


1110 


1100 


LEBANON 


225 


122 


105 


125 


140 


SAUDI ARABIA 


3450 


5932 


6180 


6500 


6800 


SYRIA 


225 


425 


230 


450 


500 


IRAN 


1649 


1275 


1280 


1500 


1 CAA 

1500 


IRAQ 


4S9 


605 


B25 


400 


500 


MALAYSIA 


945 


1 < TO 

1139 


1203 


12o3 


1 OCA 

1230 


INDONESIA 


198 


66 


49 


60 


50 


KOREA. REP. 


4146 


4049 


3463 


4210 


4400 


Dun TDOTUrC 

rnlLIrrlNhb 


336 


£.11 


£W 


A 

u 




TAIWAN 


4150 


3989 


4164 


4240 


4300 


<;iNGAPnRF 

J I nnnr unu 


490 

~ 7 V 


474 


725 


450 


450 


SUBTOTAL 


84935 


86101 


94416 


81330 


80940 


OTHER COUNTRIES 


4413 


5550 


6575 


5300 


5370 


UNACCOUNTED 1) 


505 


282 


740 


695 


3890 


WORLD TOTAL 


89853 


91933 


101731 


B7325 


90200 



1) THIS REPRESENTS EXPORTS NOT ACCOUNTED FOR IN REPORTS FROM IMPORTING COUNTRIES. 
SINCE THIS IS RECURRING, IT IS TAKEN INTO ACCOUNT IN THE ASSESSMENT OF THE YEAR AHEAD 

SOURCE: PREPARED OR ESTIMATED ON THE BASIS OF OFFICIAL STATISTICS OF FOREIGN GOBERNMENTS, OTHER 
OTHER FOREIGN SOURCE MATERIALS, REPORTS OF U.S. AGRICULTURAL ATTACHES AND FOREIGN SERVICE OFFICERS, 
RESULTS OF OFFICE RESEARCH, AND RELATED INFORMATION. 

COMMODITY PROGRAMS, FAS, USDA 



18 



WORLD RICE TRADE 
ML YEAR 19B1 TO 1985 
(IN THOUSAND OF HETRIC TONS) 





CAL YR 


CAL YR 


CftL YR 


CAL YR 


CAL 1986 


CAL 1986 




1982 


1983 


1984 


1985 


APR 11 


HAY12 


EXPORTS 














UNITED STATES 


2487 


2331 


2129 


1906 


1800 


2200 


ARGENTINA 


92 


68 


115 


165 


145 


145 


AUSTRALIA 


530 


2B1 


370 


400 


400 


400 


BURNA 


701 


750 


727 


450 


500 


600 


CHINA 


470 


580 


1168 


1000 


900 


900 


TAIWAN 


307 


533 


210 


26 


100 


100 


EC- 12 


887 


847 


772 


903 


985 


1035 


EGYPT 


22 


21 


50 


20 


50 


50 


GUYANA 


35 


45 


47 


35 


35 


35 


INDIA 


633 


200 


200 


200 


200 


200 


INDONESIA 


0 


0 


0 


415 


300 


300 


JAPAN 


318 


321 


102 


0 


0 


0 


KOREA, DPR 


250 


250 


250 


250 


250 


250 


NEPAL 


50 


0 


20 


50 


25 


25 


PAKISTAN 


794 


1299 


1050 


962 


900 


900 


THAILAND 


3620 


3700 


4528 


3993 


4300 


3900 


URUGUAY 


227 


189 


155 


240 


260 


260 


VIETNAM 


15 


140 


150 


50 


50 


50 


SUBTOTAL 


11438 


11555 


12043 


11065 


11200 


11350 


OTHER COUNRIES 


385 


370 


524 


350 


436 


386 


WORLD TOTAL 


11823 


11925 


12567 


11415 


11636 


11736 


IMPORTS 














BANGLADESH 


296 


82 


588 


275 


200 


200 


BRAZIL 


124 


326 


0 


400 


800 


800 


CANADA 


lOB 


115 


lis 


115 


115 


115 


CHINA 


250 


75 


100 


100 


100 


100 


CUBA 


201 


207 


200 


200 


200 


200 


EAST EUROPE 


303 


291 


366 


308 


315 


315 


EC- 12 


1327 


1046 


1302 


1236 


1249 


1355 


INDIA 


10 


315 


560 


10 


10 


10 


IRAN 


587 


680 


730 


600 


750 


750 


IRAQ 


369 


474 


490 


475 


550 


550 


IVORY COAST 


357 


434 


368 


250 


250 


250 


KOREA, REP. 


228 


216 


7 


0 


0 


0 


KUWAIT 


64 


55 


80 


90 


90 


90 


MALAGASY 


357 


185 


^9 


120 


150 


150 


MALAYSIA 


403 


357 


437 


425 


450 


450 


MEXICO 


16 


0 


168 


164 


50 


75 


NIGERIA 


666 


711 


450 


370 


500 


100 


PERU 


58 


101 


48 


5 


150 


ISO 


PHILIPPINES 


0 


0 


212 


488 


150 


ISO 


SAUDI ARABIA 


471 


491 


530 


500 


500 


500 


SENEGAL 


370 


362 


375 


350 


350 


350 


SOUTH AFRICA 


146 


158 


186 


170 


190 


195 


SRI LANKA 


217 


157 


20 


205 


150 


250 


SYRIA 


102 


120 


130 


130 


130 


130 


U.A. EMIRATES 


102 


100 


120 


130 


140 


140 


USSR 


859 


323 


ISO 


150 


150 


150 


VIETNAM 


150 


30 


300 


400 


500 


600 


SUBTOTAL 


8141 


7411 


8131 


7666 


8289 


8125 


OTHER COUNTRIES 


3163 


3961 


3788 


3023 


3187 


3179 


UNACCOUNTED 1) 


519 


553 


648 


726 


160 


432 


WORLD TOTAL 


11823 


11925 


12567 


11415 


11636 


11736 



1) THIS REPRESENTS EXPORTS NOT ACCOUNTED FOR IN REPORTS FROM IMPORTING COUNTRIES. 

SINCE THIS IS RECURRING IT IS TAKEN INTO ACCOUNT IN THE ASSESSMENT OF THE YEAR AHEAD. 

SOURCE: PREPARED OR ESTIMATED ON THE BASIS OF OFFICIAL STATISTICS OF FOREIGN GOVERNMENTS, 
OTHER FOREIGN SOURCE MATERIALS, REPORTS OF U.S. AGRICULTURAL ATTACHES AND FOREIBH 
SERVICE OFFICERS, RESULTS OF OFFICE RESEARCH, AND RELATED INFORMATION. 

COMMODITY PROGRAMS, FAS, USDA 



19 



EUROPEAN COHHUNITY-12: BRAIN SID 
WHEAT AND COARSE GRAINS 
MARKET YEARS 1976/77 - 1986/87 
niLLIONS OF HECTARS OR METRIC TONS 



WHEAT 



COARSE 





AREA 


YIELD 


rKuUULi iUN 


-- IMPORTS 




-- EXPORTS 




DOHESTIC UTILIZATION 


run T lid 


HARVESTED 






HKT YR TRADE YR 1/ 


HKT YR TRADE YR 1/ FEED USE 


Tniai 

1 U 1 HL 


blULKS 


COARSE BRAINS 






















1976/77 


36.4 


1 oo 
^.70 


4 AO 

lUo. J 


49.2 


35.5 


20.6 


9.2 


83.1 


t7fl 9 

loo. Z 


17.3 


1977/78 


35.6 


0.41 


111 1 
111 . 1 


45.9 


28.7 


26.0 


10.5 


85.7 


149 S 


IK O 
13.7 


1978/79 


36.8 


i. fi 


lo/. Z 


42.9 


26.1 


28.5 


14.3 


89.3 


146.3 




1979/80 


36.6 


3.62 


132.3 


43.0 


27.3 


31.1 


15.7 


90.1 


1 47 \ 
IT/ . I 


18.3 


1980/81 


36.9 


0. 7U 


111 0 


39.7 


25.2 


36.7 


21.6 


87.9 


144.5 


OA O 
XU.7 


1981/82 


36.6 


3.67 


134.2 


42.4 


24.1 


36.7 


19.7 


86.3 


149 R 


18.0 


1982/83 


36.6 


C). 7/ 


1 l>s 7 

14j. 0 


36.1 


18.6 


36.9 


20.6 


85.7 


i tV . 7 




1983/84 


36.0 


0. 00 


177 7 
10/ . / 


34.1 


17.1 


37.4 


19.7 


87.2 


141 9 

Ilia/ 


1A A 
14. U 


1984/85 


36.1 


1 77 


179 
1 /x. J 


33.4 


12.5 


47.6 


26.6 


88.6 


145 3 


97 1 
LI t L 


1985/86 11 


35.6 


i i7 


1^0 1 

l07 • 1 


34.7 


9.1 


48.8 


23.5 


89.5 


146 4 


9'? 7 


1986/87 3/ 


35.7 


A ^7 


1 A7 9 
loo. Z 


32.4 


7.7 


45.2 


23.0 


89.1 


UA 4 

I TO . T 


90 7 
i7. / 


Wbni 


15.4 


0. 


40. 0 


10.2 


5.9 


10.9 


5.1 


lO.O 


45 6 


0 7 
7. / 


1977/78 

lit 11 / U 


U 0 


7 1 0 
0.17 


AA ^ 


13.3 


6 3 


12 7 


5 1 


10 8 


47 5 


7 1 
/ .4 


1978/79 


15.1 


7 A7 
0. 0/ 


3j. 0 


11.7 


5.7 


15.3 


8.8 


12.1 


47.9 


1 t 7 
11.0 


1979/80 


14.8 


3.59 


53.2 


12.0 


6.4 


17.8 


10.7 


12.8 


48.9 


9.7 


1980/81 


15.6 


3.94 


61.5 


11.4 


5.6 


21.7 


15.7 


13.3 


49 4 


11.6 


1981/82 


15.7 


■? 7 1 
0. / 1 


JO. 1 


12.1 


5.6 


22.3 


15.7 


14.0 


49 k 


0 0 
7.0 


1982/83 


16.0 


A I'll 


LI 7 
04. / 


10.1 


4.6 


21.9 


16.3 


15.9 


9 

Ov . L 


1 9 A 
l/> 4 


1983/84 


16.1 


7 07 
0.7/ 


A7 Q 
00. 0 


10.9 


4.5 


22.7 


15.5 


21.1 


55 9 


D. 0 


1984/85 


16.2 




09 Q 
OZ. 0 


13.1 


3.0 


28.4 


17.8 


23.3 


S9 A 


1 A L 
lO.u 


1985/86 2/ 


15.3 


1 t7 
n.O/ 


71 ^ 
/ 1 . D 


15.1 


2.9 


28.1 


16.0 


23.9 


S9 fl 

07 • 0 


1 «; 7 
lO. 0 


1986/87 3/ 


15.8 


A 00 
4,07 


77 1 


14.7 


2.6 


27.1 


16.5 


24.2 


Ov . 0 


i 0 0 


UNS 4/ 






















1976/77 


21.0 


Z. 73 


A1 0 
01.7 


39.0 


29.6 


9.7 


4.1 


73.1 


92 6 


7 k 
/ . 0 


1977/78 


21.6 


0. 3j 


7A L 
/O. 0 


32.6 


22.4 


13.3 


5.5 


74.9 


95 0 


Q 4 


1978/79 


21.7 


T 77 
0. / / 


01 0 
01 . 7 


31.1 


20.4 


13.2 


5.5 


77.3 


OR A 
70.4 


0 0 
7.7 


1979/80 


21.7 


3.64 


79.2 


31.0 


20.9 


13.3 


5.0 


77.4 


98.3 


a c 
g.3 


1980/81 


21.3 


3.87 


82.6 


28.3 


19.7 


15.0 


5.7 


74.5 


95.1 


9.4 


1981/82 


20.9 


3.64 


76.1 


30.4 


18.6 


14.4 


4.0 


72.3 


93.2 


8.3 


1982/83 


20.6 


3.91 


80.7 


25.9 


14.0 


15.0 


4.3 


69.8 


90.6 


9.2 


1983/84 


19.9 


3.72 


73.9 


23.2 


12.5 


14.7 


4.3 


66.1 


86.2 


5.4 


1984/85 


20.0 


4.49 


89.7 


20.3 


9.6 


19.2 


8.8 


65.4 


85.7 


10.5 


1985/86 2/ 


20.3 


4.33 


87.7 


19.6 


6.2 


20.7 


7.5 


65.7 


86.6 


10.4 


1986/87 3/ 


19.9 


4.32 


86.1 


17.7 


5.1 


18.0 


6.5 


65.0 


85.7 


10.4 



1/ EXCLUDES INTRA-EC TRADE. WHEAT AND COARSE BRAINS ARE ON A JULY/JUNE BASIS THROUGH 1978/79. 

FROM 1979/80 ON, COARSE GRAINS ARE ON AN OCTOBER/SEPTEMBER BASIS. 
2/ PRELiniNARY. 
3/ FORECAST. 

4/ RYE, BARLEY, OATS, CORN, SORGHUH, AND HIXED GRAINS. 

BOURSE: PREPARED OR ESTIHATED ON BASIS OF OFFICIAL STATISTICS OF FOREIGN GOVERNMENTS, OTHER FOREIGN SOURCE 
MATERIALS, REPORTS OF U.S. AGRICULTURAL ATTACHES AND FOREIGN SERVICE OFFICERS, RESULTS OF OFFICIAL RESEARCH, 
AND RELATED INFORMATION. 

COMMODITY PROGRAMS, FAS, USDA GRAIN AND FEED DIVISION 



20 



EASTERN EUROPE: GRAIN S & D 
WHEAT AND COARSE GRAINS 

TRADE YEARS* 1977/78 - 1986/87 

MILLIONS METRIC TONS/HECTARES 



WHEAT 



COARSE 





AREA 


YIELD 


PRODUCTION 


IMPORTS 


EXPORTS 


NET 


IITTl TTATTftil 

UTILIZATION 


STOCKS 


HARVESTED 










IMPORTS 


TftTAl 4 / 

TOTAL 1/ 


CHANGE 2/ 


COARSE GRAINS 


















1977/78 


29.6 


3.17 


93.9 


J 7 ^ 

13.3 


4.1 


n ft 

9.2 


4 A 7 J 

103.4 


A A 

0.0 


1978/79 


29.2 


3.30 


96.4 


15.0 


3.4 


11.6 


109.6 


-0.4 


1979/80 


29.0 


3.14 


91.1 


17.6 


2.9 


14.7 


104.4 


0.0 


1980/81 


28.9 


3.32 


96.0 


16.1 


4.5 


11.6 


110.2 


-0.4 


1981/82 


28.8 


3.31 


95.2 


12.5 


4.1 


8.3 


104.1 


0.2 


1982/83 


28.8 


3.71 


106.7 


9.4 


5.6 


3.7 


108.4 


1.1 


1983/84 


28.9 


3.55 


102.5 


B.O 


5.3 


2.7 


105.6 


-0.7 


1984/85 


28.9 


i.98 


4 4 IT < 

115. 1 


/ A 

6.0 


7 n 

7.2 


1 ft 

-1.2 


4 4"* 4 

Ib.l 


4 n 

1.8 


1985/86 3/ 


28.7 


3.71 


106.5 


9. 1 


4.5 


4.6 


4 14 7 

111.7 


-1.6 


1986/87 4/ 


28.6 


3.76 


107.6 


6.6 


5.0 


1.6 


\ AD 7 

108.7 


A 1 

0.2 


1977/78 


10.1 


,3.43 


o4.6 


5.0 


n 7 

2.3 


ft 7 

2.7 


77 ft 

37.2 


A 4 

0. 1 


17/0/ /Y 


Iv. L 


3.52 


35. V 


4.4 


2.2 


ft ft 

2.2 


39. 1 


A C 

-0.5 


1979/80 


9.3 


2.97 


27.6 


6. 1 


1.1 


5.0 


32. 1 


A A 

0.0 


1980/81 


9.7 


3. 56 


34.6 


5.8 


2.5 


3.4 


38.5 


0.1 


1981/82 


9.0 


3.38 


30.6 


6.2 


2.0 


4.3 


35.1 


-0.1 


1982/83 


9.4 




7 Jl 7 

54.7 


4.5 


2.4 


2.2 


56.7 


A \ 

-0. 1 


1983/84 


10.0 


0.55 


7r ii 

35.4 


7 n 


n 7 

2.3 


4 C 

1.5 


77 1 

57,1 


A 7 

-0.5 


1984/85 


10.1 


4. 14 


42. 1 


2.6 


4. 1 


4 C 

-1.5 


40. 1 


A C 

0.5 


1985/86 3/ 


9.9 


•3.82 


7ft A 

38.0 


7 7 

3.7 


ft / 

2.6 


4 A 

l.O 


7ft ft 

38.2 


A 4 

0. 1 


1986/87 4/ 


10.1 


7 n A 

3.84 


7ft n 

38.9 


7 r 

3.5 


ft / 

2.6 


A n 

U.9 


7n ' 


A ft 

-0.2 


UNS 5/ 


















1977/78 


19.5 


-3.04 


59. ,3 


ft 7 

8.3 


4 ft 

1.8 


6.6 


It ft 

66.2 


A 4 

-0. 1 


1978/79 


18.9 


^ rv A 


60.5 


10.6 


4 ft 

1.2 


ft J 

9.4 


7 A / 

70.6 


A 4 

0. 1 


1979/80 


19.8 


:».20 


' 7 J 


11.5 


4 n 

1.8 


n 7 

9.7 


7ft 7 

72.3 


A 4 

-0. 1 


1980/81 


19.2 


3.24 


62.3 


10.2 


2.1 


8.1 


72.5 


-0.5 


1981/82 


19.7 


3.27 


64.5 


6.1 


2.1 


4.0 


69.1 


0.3 


1982/83 


19.4 


3.72 


72.0 


4.9 


3.3 


1.6 


71.6 


1.2 


1983/84 


18.9 


3.55 


67.1 


4.2 


3.0 


1.2 


68.5 


-0.5 


1984/85 


18.7 


3.90 


73.0 


3.4 


3.1 


0.3 


73.0 


1.3 


1985/86 3/ 


18.8 


3.66 


68.6 


5.5 


1.9 


3.6 


73.4 


-1.7 


1986/87 4/ 


18.5 


3.71 


68.7 


3.2 


2.4 


0.8 


69.2 


0.4 



♦! WHEAT AND COARSE BRAINS ARE ON A JULY/JUNE TRADE YEAR THROUGH 1978/79. FROM 1979/80 ON, COARSE GRAINS 

ARE ON AN OCTOBER/SEPTEMBER TRADE YEAR. 
1/ REPRESENTS APPARENT UTILIZATION, I.E. INCLUDES ANNUAL STOCK LEVEL ADJUSTMENTS FOR THOSE COUNTRIES FOR 

WHICH NO STOCKS DATA ARE AVAILABLE. 
2/ INCLUDES YEAR-TO-YEAR FLUCTUATIONS ONLY FOR THOSE COUNTRIES OR COMMODITIES FOR WHICH STOCK DATA 

ARE AVAILABLE. 
3/ PRELIMINARY. 
4/ PROJECTION. 

5/ RYE, BARLEY, OATS, CORN, SORGHUM, AND MIXED GRAINS. 

SOURCES: PREPARED OR ESTIMATED ON BASIS OF OFFICIAL STATISTICS OF FOREIGN GOVERNMENTS, OTHER FOREIGN SOURCE 
MATERIALS, REPORTS OF U.S. AGRICULTURAL ATTACHES AND FOREIGN SERVICE OFFICERS, RESULTS OF OFFICE RESEARCH, 
AND RELATED INFORMATION. 

COMMODITY PROGRAMS, FAS, USDA BRAIN AND FEED DIVISION 



21 



USSR AND CHINA: GRAIN S (> D 
MHEAT AND COARSE GRAINS 
JULY/JUNE YEARS 1978/79 - 1986/87 
MILLION METRIC TONS/HECTARES 



USSR 



WHEAT 





AREA 


I 1 CLU 


rnUUUL 1 lUn 


1111 / TltU 


1111 IIWU 


MPT 


u 1 ILl lH I lUI 


HARVESTED 










1 nr un i z 


TflTil 1 / 


AND COARSE GRAINS 
















1978/79 


120.9 


1 Q7 
1.0/ 


Lit. 1 


I j>U 


Z. J 


IZ. J 


•710 7 
ill,/ 


1979/80 


118.9 


1.44 


171.3 


30.5 


0.5 


30.0 


214.3 


1980/81 


119.3 


1 • jU 


1 7Q 7 




ft *s 

U. J 


JO. J 


711 7 


1981/82 


117.3 


i • 0\J 


1 S"? A 
1 DZ. U 


dS ft 
*» J. U 


ft s 

U. J 


J 


7Aft S 
ZUUi J 


1982/83 


115.3 


1 ■ *f 7 


1 79 n 


0 1 ■ J 


ft 

U.J 


T 1 A 
Jl .U 


7A1 A 


1983/84 


112.0 


1 ■ J7 


1 7B f\ 


"^9 ft 


ft R 
u. J 


Jl • J 


7AA R 

zUo. J 


1984/65 


110.3 




1 J7 . V 


S^ ft 

JJ« V 


I . u 


SI A 
J*t . U 


7A7 A 


1985/86 3/ 


108.7 




1 77 n 


9R ft 


1 A 


77 ft 
Z/ . U 


7ft 1 ft 


19R/<'R7 4/ 


108.5 


1.64 


178.0 


29.0 


1 0 


7R ft 
ZO * \f 


7ftA ft 
ZUO . v 


1978/79 


62.9 


1.92 


120.8 


5,1 


1.5 


3.6 


106.5 


1979/80 


57.7 


I * JO 


7 V i i 


1 i. • 1 


ft s 


t 1 A 
11.0 


1 1 1 


1930/81 


61.5 


1 AO 


70 • L 


1A ft 
1 0 . V 


ft S 
v • J 


i j» J 


1 1 T . / 


1981/82 


59.2 


1.35 


80.0 


1 7 • J 


ft s 

V % J 


IQ ft 

1 7 . U 


lft7 ft 
1 vZ. V 


1982/83 


57.3 


i . JV 


RA 0 

OOi V 


7ft 7 

Zv ■ Z 


ft s 


19 7 

17. / 


1 ftS 7 
lUJt / 


1983/84 


50.8 


1 SA 

1 • JO 


79.0 


7ft S 

Zv* J 


ft s 

V 1 J 


7ft ft 
zu. u 


Q7 ft 
7 / , U 


1964/85 


51.1 


1 . T J 




7fl J 

ZD. 1 


1 ft 


77 1 
Z/ 1 1 


QA 1 
70. 1 


1985/36 3/ 


50.3 


t AS 

1 • 0 J 




(A ft 


1 ft 


1^ ft 

I J. V 


QQ ft 

70 . y 


1986/87 4/ 


49.0 


1 A*^ 


flft ft 


lA ft 


1 ft 


IS ft 
1 J* u 


OS ft 

7 J. V 


GRAINS 5/ 
















1978/79 


58.0 


1.82 


105.3 


9.9 


1.0 


8.9 


113.2 


1979/80 


61.2 


1.33 


81.1 


18.4 


0.0 


18.4 


99.5 


1980/81 


57.9 


1.39 


80.5 


18.0 


0.0 


18.0 


99.5 


1981/82 


58.0 


1.24 


72.0 


25.5 


0.0 


25.5 


98.5 


1982/83 


58.0 


1.48 


66.0 


11.3 


0.0 


11.3 


96.3 


1983/84 


61.2 


1.62 


99.0 


11.5 


0.0 


11.5 


109.5 


1984/85 


59.2 


1.45 


86.0 


26.9 


0.0 


26.9 


110.9 


1965/86 3/ 


58.5 


1.61 


94.0 


12.0 


0.0 


12.0 


106.0 


1986/87 4/ 


59.5 


1.65 


98.0 


13.0 


0.0 


13.0 


111.0 



STOCKS 
CHANGE 2/ 



19.0 
-13.0 
-2.0 
-4.0 
-1.0 
3.0 
6.0 
0.0 
0.0 



18. 0 
-13.0 
-1.0 
-3.0 
0.0 
2.0 
4.0 
0.0 
0.0 



1.0 
0.0 
-1.0 
-1.0 
-1.0 
1.0 
2.0 
0.0 
0.0 



CHINA 

WHEAT AND COARSE GRAINS 



WHEAT 



COARSE 



1978/79 


s2.7 


2.12 


132.8 


11.1 


0.1 


11.0 


143.9 


0.0 


1979/80 


63.1 


2.31 


145.8 


10.9 


0.1 


10.8 


156.6 


0.0 


1980/81 


61.7 


2.26 


139.4 


14.6 


0.2 


14.4 


154.0 


0.0 


1961/82 


59.4 


2.36 


140.4 


14.5 


0.2 


14.3 


154.8 


0.0 


1932/83 


57.2 


2.64 


150.6 


15.7 


0.1 


15.6 


146.4 


0.0 


1983/64 


58.6 


2.97 


174.0 


9.8 


0.5 


9.4 


183.4 


0.0 


1984/85 


58.3 


3.14 


183.3 


7.5 


5.7 


1.9 


185.1 


0.0 


1985/86 3/ 


57.0 


2.98 


169.5 


6.3 


4.4 


1.9 


171.3 


0.0 


1986/87 4/ 


57.8 


3.16 


182.6 


7.5 


4.2 


3.3 


186.1 


0.0 


1978/79 


29,2 


1.84 


53.B 


8.0 


0.0 


8.0 


61.9 


0.0 


1979/80 


29.4 


2.13 


62.7 


8.9 


0.0 


6.9 


71.6 


0.0 


1980/81 


29.2 


1.S9 


55.2 


13.8 


0.0 


13.8 


69.0 


0.0 


1981/82 


28.3 


2.11 


59.6 


13.2 


0.0 


13.2 


72.8 


0.0 


1962/83 


27.9 


2.45 


68.4 


13.0 


0.0 


13.0 


81.4 


0.0 


1983/84 


29.1 


2.80 


81.4 


9.6 


0.0 


9.6 


91.0 


0.0 


1984/85 


29.6 


2.97 


87.8 


7.4 


0.0 


7.4 


95.2 


0.0 


1965/86 3/ 


29.6 


2.89 


85.6 


6.0 


0.0 


6.0 


91.6 


0.0 


1986/87 4/ 


30.0 


2.95 


88.5 


7.0 


0.0 


7.0 


95.5 


0.0 


UNS 5/ 


















1978/79 


33.5 


2.36 


79.0 


3.1 


0.1 


3.0 


82.0 


0.0 


l''79/80 


33.7 


2.47 


83.1 


2.0 


0.1 


1.9 


85.0 


0.0 


1980/81 


32.5 


2.59 


84.2 


0.9 


0.2 


0.7 


85.0 


0.0 


1981/82 


31.1 


2.60 


80.8 


1.3 


0.2 


1.1 


81.9 


0.0 


1982/83 


29.3 


2.81 


82.4 


2.7 


0.1 


2.6 


85.0 


0.0 


1983/84 


29.6 


3.13 


92.7 


0.2 


0.5 


-0.2 


92.4 


0.0 


1964/85 


28.7 


3.32 


95.4 


0.1 


5.7 


-5.6 


89.9 


0.0 


1985/86 3/ 


27.3 


3.07 


83.9 


0.3 


4.4 


-4.2 


79.7 


0.0 


1986/87 4/ 


27.8 


3.39 


94.3 


0.5 


4.2 


-3.7 


90.6 


0.0 



1/ FEED USE DATA ARE UNAVAILABLE FOR CHINA. 

2/ FOR CHINA, UTILIZATION ESTIHATES REPRESENT ■APPARENT" UTILIZATION. I.E. THEY INCLUDE ANNUAL STOCK LEVEL 

ADJUSTMENTS THOUGH NO STOCKS DATA ARE AVAILABLE. 
3/ PRELIMINARY. 
4/ PROJECTION. 

5/ COARSE GRAINS INCLUDE BARLEY, RYE, OATS, CORN, SORGHUH, AND MILLET. EXCLUDED ARE MISCELLANEOUS GRAINS, 
PULSES AND RICE. 

SOURCES: PREPARED OR ESTIMATED ON BASIS OF OFFICIAL STATISTICS OF FOREIGN GOVERNMENTS, OTHER FOREIGN SOURCE 
MATERIALS, REPORTS OF U.S. AGRICULTURAL ATTACHES AND FOREIGN SERVICE OFFICERS, RESULTS OF OFFICE RESEARCH, 
AND RELATED INFORMATION. 

COMMODITY PROGRAMS, FAS, USDA GRAIN AND FEED DIVISION 



22 



WHEAT: SUPPLY AND DISAPPEARANCE 
U.S. AND RAJOR COMPETITORS 

1979/80 - 1986/87 
HILLION METRIC TONS/HECTARES 

AREA YIELD PRODUCTION DOMESTIC -- EXPORTS 1/ -- MKT YEAR 2/ 





HHKVts 1 til 






IICC 

Uat 


llil / IIIU 

JUL/JUN 


HfV VCAD 

nikT TtflK 


Chin cinr^c 




CANADA (MARKETING YEAR 


AUG/JUL) 












i 07Q /OA 

IV/V/oO 


10.5 


l.£)4 


17.2 


c c 
3. D 


1 D . I.I 


lo. 7 


1 I'l 7 
10./ 


t OQA iOi 


11.1 


1.74 


19.3 


J. ^ 


1 / . (.1 


16.0 


□ I 
0.0 


1 7DI/DZ 


12.4 


2.00 


24.8 


j,i 


1 7 L 

1 / . 6 


1 0 1 

lo. 4 


Q □ 
7,0 




12.6 


2.13 


26.7 


C 4 
J. 1 


7 1 i 
Zi ■ 4 


7 1 d 

Zl . 4 


10.0 


1 007 iOA 


13.7 


1.94 


26.5 


J. 6 


Zl . 0 


7 1 Q 

zl.U 


□ 7 
7.Z 


4 ODi /OC^ 


13.2 


1.61 


21.2 


J. I 


1 0 J 
17.4 


1 7 L 


7 / 
/ .0 


100^/Qi. Tj 


13,7 


1.75 


23.9 


J. S 


1 7 R 
1 / . J 


1 Q A 
lo. U 


7 7 


1700 (□/ "/ 


13.7 


1.91 


26.2 


J . J 


19 (1 


1 9 fl 
i 7 . V 


9 4 

7 ■ T 




AUSTRALIA (MARKETIN6 YEAR OCT/SEPT) 










1 7 / 7/ OV 


11.2 


1.45 


16.2 


0. n 


IS I'l 
1 J . V 


13 9 
10. z 


4 3 
1.0 


1 70V/ 0 i 


11.3 


0.96 


10.9 


0. J 


i V . 0 


9 A 
7 . 0 


9 fl 
Z, V 


1 70 1 / 0£ 


11.9 


1.38 


16.4 


9 A 

^ . u 


1 1 0 

i i . V 


1 1 fl 




1982/83 


11.5 


0.77 


8.9 


4. 1 


8. 1 


7 7 

' ■ J 


o 


1983/84 


12.9 


1.70 


22.0 


7 1 


Id A 


IJ ■ iJ 


7 A 


I9R4/8S 


12.0 


1.52 


18.3 


T 7 


1^ 3 


14 0 


8 A 


i 7 D\J/ UO J/ 


12.0 


1.38 


16.5 


3 0 


IS 7 


iJ • J 


A A 


19RA/Q7 4/ 


11.9 


1.31 


15.6 


3 9 


1 4 fl 

i 7 » V 




J.J 




flRSENTINfi (MARKETING YEAR DEC/NOV) 










1979/80 


4.8 


1.69 


8.1 


4.0 


4.8 


4.8 


0.4 


198(1/81 


5.0 


1.55 


7.8 


4 0 

T , V 


3 9 




fl 4 


19RI /87 


5.9 


1.40 


9.3 


4 3 


k 7 


3 A 


n 8 

U . 0 


1989/83 


7.3 


2.05 


15.0 


4 8 


7 S 
1 • J 


9 9 


1 1 

i . 1 


1983/84 


6.9 


1,85 


12.8 


4.7 


9 7 


7 R 


1 7 
I .o 


1984/8*^ 


6.0 


2.22 


13.2 


4 h 


fl fl 
Ob V 


9 4 


V.J 


i7uiJ.'Ou J/ 


5.3 


1.61 


8.5 


4 4 


A 1 

O* 1 


4 7 
^. z 


A 4 

V . 7 


19RA/R7 4/ 

i 7 00/ 0 / T/ 


5.4 


1.85 


9.9 


1 ■% 


■> fl 




fl 4 




TOTAL COMPETITORS 














1 7 / 7/ oy 


26.5 


1.57 


41.5 


19 5 




77 9 
00. 7 


IS 4 


1 "Ov/ 0 1 


27.4 


1.38 


37.9 


1 7 A 
1,1.. 0 


31 S 

01 . J 


79 7 
i7 . / 


1 1 f 1 
1 1 . y 


1 QR1 /fl? 

1701/ qZ 


30.2 


1,64 


49,5 


1 ? 1 
iZ. 1 


T9 9 
oZ. 7 


77 t 
■jO. 1 


1 S 7 
1 J. J 


1 70^/ 00 


31.4 


1,61 


50.6 


1 4 fl 


T7 (\ 
0/ . y 


00. 0 


1 7 4 

10.7 


IQR'^/Rl 
i7D0/ 0^ 


33.5 


1.83 


61.3 


1 J. / 


47 

nZ.U 


i7 n 
TO. U 


1 Q n 

10. y 


iQRi/RS 
1 701/ D J 


31.1 


1.69 


52.7 


lo. 1 


17 7 
5Z. / 


^ 1 . y 


lo.o 


17DjfOD 0/ 


31.0 


1.58 


48.9 


1 1 9 
lo. L 


79 7 

07 . 0 


77 7 
0 / . / 


t i A 


19flA/R7 4/ 


31.0 


1.67 


51.7 


13 7 
1 0 . z 


7fl i'l 
OD . V 


77 9 

0/ . 7 


1 S 7 
1 J. 0 




U.S. (MARKETING YEAR JUN/MAY) 












nil! OV 


25.3 


2.30 


58.1 




77 7 
0/ . Z 


77 4 
0/ . T 


74 S 
Z^ . J 


1 70V/ 0 i 


28.8 


2.25 


64.8 


91 3 
ZI . 0 


41 9 
1 . 7 


41 7 
*tl . Z 


7A 9 
Zu . 7 


l9Rt /R9 

1 7 0 i / 


32.6 


2.32 


75.8 


93 1 
ZJ* 1 


48 8 


48 9 
^0 . z 


31 S 
01 ■ J 




31.5 


2.39 


75.3 


94 7 
z^. / 


39 9 

07 ■ 7 


41 1 


41 7 


1983/84 

i 7wO/ Ol 


24.8 


2.65 


65.9 


3f) 9 

■jv t Z 


38 9 

00 . 7 


38 9 

00 . 7 


38 1 
00. 1 


1984/8'5 


27.1 


2.61 


70.6 


31 4 


38 1 

00 . i 


38 a 

OO ■ 0 


38 8 
00 ■ □ 


1985/86 3/ 


26.2 


2.52 


66.0 


79 3 

Z7 , 0 


9A n 
zo. \/ 


94 S 

Z^ . J 


SI 4 

J i . 7 


1986/87 4/ 

i 7 DO / □ / 7/ 






66.7 


31 3 


31 3 

01.0 


31 3 

01.0 


SS R 
J J . 0 




TOTAL U.S. AND COMPETITORS 












1979/80 


51.8 


1.92 


99.6 


34.2 


72.0 


71.3 


39.9 


1980/81 


56.2 


1.83 


102.7 


33.9 


73.5 


70.9 


37.9 


1981/82 


62,9 


1.99 


125.3 


35.1 


81.7 


81.3 


46.9 


1982/83 


62.9 


2.00 


125.9 


38.7 


76.9 


79.6 


54.6 


1983/84 


58.4 


2.18 


127.1 


43.9 


80.9 


81.8 


56.1 


1984/85 


56.2 


lAi 


123.3 


44.4 


80.8 


79.7 


55.4 


1985/86 3/ 


57.2 


2.01 


114.9 


42,5 


65.3 


62.2 


66.1 


1986/87 4/5/ 


31.0 


1.67 


118.4 


44.5 


69.3 


69.2 


71.1 



1/ INCLUDES THE WHEAT EQUIVALENT OF FLOUR. 

II NET CHANGES IN FARM STOCKS FOR ARGENTINA AND AUSTRALIA ARE REFLECTED IN DOMESTIC DISAPPEARANCE. 
3/ PRELIMINARY. 
4/ PROJECTED. 

5/ TOTAL AREA AND YIELD DO NOT INCLUDE U.S. AREA AND YIELD. 

SOURCES: PREPARED OR ESTIMATED ON BASIS OF OFFICIAL STATISTICS OF FOREIGN GOVERNMENTS, OTHER FOREIGN SOURCE 
MATERIALS, REPOfiTS OF U.S. AGRICULTURAL ATTACHES AND FOREIGN SERVICE OFFICERS, RESULTS OF OFFICE RESEARCH, 
AND RELATED INFORMATION, 



COMMODITY PROGRAMS, FAS, USDA GRAIN AND FEED DIVISION 



23 



SELECTED CDftRSE GRAINS 
MAJOR FOREIGN EXPORTERS 
PRODUCTION YEARS 1979 - 1986 
THOUSANDS OF METRIC TONS/HECTARES 





AREA 


YIELD PRODUCTION 


DOMESTIC 


- EXPORTS - 


ENDING 




HARVESTED 






USE 


OCT/SEP 


MKT YEAR 


STOCKS 


ARGENTINA 


GRAIN SORGHUH (HAR/FEB) 












(79) 1980/Sl 


1279 


2.31 


2960 


1585 


4860 


1494 


22 


(80) 1981/82 


2100 


3.38 


7100 


2050 


5216 


4940 


132 


(81) 1982/83 


2510 


3.19 


8000 


2090 


4931 


5544 


496 


(82) 1983/84 


2520 


3.02 


7600 


2700 


4788 


5197 


201 


(83) 1984/85 


2370 


3.04 


7200 


3200 


3360 


4134 


67 


(84) 1985/86 


1987 


2.97 


5900 


2500 


2200 


3227 


240 


(85) 1986/67 1/ 


1350 


3.33 


4500 


2500 


1700 


2000 


240 


(86) 1987/88 2/ 


1400 


3.00 


4200 


2500 




1700 


240 


AUSTRALIA 


GRAIN SORGHUH (HAR/FEB) 












(79) 1930/31 


519 


1.78 


922 


367 


510 


506 


183 


(80) 1981/82 


658 


■ 1.83 


1204 


466 


1238 


856 


65 


(81) 1982/83 


649 


2.03 


1317 


366 


281 


961 


55 


(82) 1983/84 


707 


1.36 


958 


701 


1427 


282 


30 


(83) 1984/85 


730 


2.58 


1885 


390 


1240 


1425 


100 


(84) 1935/86 


723 


1.89 


1369 


294 


1000 


1150 


25 


(85) 1986/87 1/ 


72B 


1,72 


1255 


300 


975 


955 


25 


(86) 1987/88 2/ 


700 


1.86 


1300 


350 




950 


25 


ARGENTINA 


CORN 


(HAR/FEB) 












(79) 1980/81 


2490 


2.57 


6400 


3048 


9016 


3417 


108 


(80) 1981/82 


3394 


3.80 


12900 


3700 


4922 


9098 


210 


(81) 1982/83 


3170 


3.03 


9600 


3500 


6483 


5765 


545 


(82) 1983/34 


2970 


3.03 


9000 


3200 


5885 


6056 


289 


(83) 1984/85 


3025 


3.04 


9200 


3950 


7043 


5448 


91 


(84) 1935/86 


3300 


3.48 


11500 


4075 


9500 


7195 


321 


(85) 1986/87 1/ 


3500 


3.71 


13000 


3700 


8500 


9300 


321 


(86) 1987/88 2/ 


3500 


3.57 


12500 


3700 




8800 


321 


SOUTH AFRICA 


CORN 


(HAY/APR) 












(79) 1980/81 


4322 


2.50 


10794 


6757 


3930 


3444 


1952 


(30) 1981/82 


4339 


3.38 


14645 


7097 


4700 


4955 


4545 


(81) 1982/83 


4278 


1.95 


8355 


7663 


2300 


4034 


1333 


(82) 1983/84 


4065 


1.00 


4083 


7525 


75 


238 


42 


(83) 1984/85 


3953 


1.11 


4405 


hl82 


500 


9 


264 


(84) 1985/36 


3887 


2.00 


7755 


6188 


1400 


406 


1625 


(85) 1986/87 1/ 


4044 


2.10 


8500 


6320 


1975 


2875 


930 


(8ti) 1987/88 2/ 


4150 


2.17 


9000 


6550 




2500 


880 


THAILAND 


CORN 


(JUL/JUN) 












(79) 1979/80 


1424 


2.32 


3300 


105(1 


2067 


2150 


153 


(80) 1980/81 


1450 


2.21 


3200 


1108 


2113 


2142 


103 


(81) 1981/82 


1750 


2.49 


4350 


1050 


3260 


3260 


143 


(82) 1982/33 


1850 


1.86 


3450 


1160 


2136 


2136 


297 


(33) 1933/84 


1825 


2.16 


3950 


1300 


3026 


2846 


101 


(84) 1984/85 


1955 


2.23 


4350 


1290 


3010 


3057 


104 


(85; 1985/86 1/ 


2150 


2.40 


5150 


1450 


3500 


3400 


404 


(86) 1986/87 2/ 


2200 


2.30 


5050 


1500 


3275 


3500 


454 


AUSTRALIA 


BARLEY (NOV /OCT) 












(79) 1979/80 


2482 


1.49 


3703 


1357 


2900 


2824 


55 


(80) 1980/81 


2451 


1.09 


2682 


831 


1540 


1781 


125 


(31) 1931/82 


26B5 


1.28 


3450 


1266 


1702 


2259 


50 


(82) 1982/83 


2452 


0.79 


1939 


1015 


600 


884 


90 


(83) 1983/84 


3109 


1.57 


4890 


810 


3721 


4117 


53 


(34) 1984/85 


3518 


1.58 


5554 


1115 


5566 


4300 


192 


(85) 1985/86 1/ 


3483 


1.38 


4800 


900 


4500 


3900 


192 


(86) 1936/87 2/ 


3000 


1.30 


3900 


900 


2600 


3000 


192 


CANADA 


BARLEY (AUG/JUL) 












(79) 1979/80 


3724 


2.27 


8460 


7537 


2963 


3832 


2006 


(30) 1930/81 


4634 


2.43 


11259 


6835 


4012 


3236 


3203 


(81) 1981/32 


5476 


2.51 


13724 


7046 


5543 


5722 


4161 


(32) 1982/83 


5149 


2.71 


13966 


7275 


6071 


5648 


5204 


(83) 1983/84 


4353 


2.35 


10209 


7906 


4240 


5536 


1971 


184) 1984/85 


4566 


2.25 


10296 


7464 


2454 


2781 


2022 


(85) 1985/86 1/ 


4752 


2. SB 


12247 


7540 


3500 


3500 


3229 


(86) 1986/87 2/ 


4400 


2.61 


11500 


7800 


4035 


4000 


2929 



NOTE: YEARS IN PARENTHESES DENOTE PRODUCTION YEARS USED FOR AGGREGATING WORLD CROPS. SPLIT YEARS 
(E.G. 1982/83) ARE MARKETING YEARS. 

1/ PRELIMINARY. 
21 PROJECTED. 

SOURCES; PREPARED OR ESTIMATED ON BASIS OF OFFICIAL STATISTICS OF FOREIGN GOVERNMENTS, OTHER FOREIGN SOURCE 
MATERIALS, REPORTS OF U.S. AGRICULTURAL ATTACHES AND FOREIGN SERVICE OFFICERS, RESULTS OF OFFICE RESEARCH, 
AND RELATED INFORMATION. 

COMMODITY PROGRAMS, FAS, USDA GRAIN AND FEED DIVISION 



24 



U.S. WHEAT AND COARSE GRAINS 
MILLION METRIC TONS/HECTARES 
MARKET YEARS 1970/71 - 1986/87 



WHEAT 



COARSE 





BEblNNING 


AREA 


YIELD 


PRODUCTION 


InPORTS 


EXPORTS 


DOMESTIC 


DOMESTIC 




STOCKS 


HARVESTED 










FOR FEED 


TOTAL USE 


(ND COARSE GRAINS 


















1970/71 


72.9 


58.4 


3.1 


182.9 


0.4 


38.8 


132.2 


162.8 


1971/72 


54.6 


62.9 


3.7 


233.6 


0.3 


40.5 


143,1 


174.7 


1972/73 


73.4 


57.5 


3.9 


224.1 


0.4 


69.1 


147,8 


180.9 


1973/74 


47.9 


63.5 


3.7 


233.4 


0.3 


73.8 


143,0 


176.7 


1974/75 


31.1 


67.2 


3.0 


199.4 


0.6 


63.6 


101.5 


135.1 


1975/76 


32.3 


70.7 


3.4 


243.3 


0.5 


81.2 


116.6 


153.6 


i L 111 


Mi 7 
41.0 


70 A 

/z.O 


O.D 




U.4 


7 i A 

76.0 


lie L 

Ho. 6 


4 C7 A 

153.0 


1 07*7 1^0 


i.C' f 

QJ. 0 


7 ! 0 


7 7 
J. / 


/61.4 


0.4 


QL 0 
00.2 


i 00 0 
122.2 


160.5 


IV/O/ /7 


□ 1.0 


66. 1 


4. 1 


07A J 

ii/0.4 


0.3 


00 A 

72.0 


1 7D 0 

13B.7 


1 70 0 

178.2 


1 07D /DA 

iV/V/oO 


□ l.D 


LI \ 

6/. I 


4.4 


Z76. D 


0.4 


f AO A 


1 40 0 

142.2 


1 DO 0 

182.8 


4 no A /01 
I78O/8I 


□ /.I 


7 A ( 
/O. 1 


7 0 
O.D 


I06. 1 


A Jl 

0.4 


111.9 


4 0 Z A 

126,0 


I t n 7 

169.3 


1961/82 


69.4 


76.1 


4.2 


322.4 


0.4 


108.2 


131,2 


176.3 


1982/83 


107.7 


74.8 


4.4 


326.0 


0.6 


94.1 


144.1 


191.6 


i OOT IQi 


i AO L 

148. 0 


^1 7 
D/. / 


7 c 
O.J 


0A7 A 


A 0 

0.0 


OC 5 

73.0 


1 7A 0 


1 0 f A 

181.0 


1 OOil / or 


1 L A 

/6.U 


7A L 


/I J 

4.4 


7A0 7 


1 A 
1.0 


OC A 
70.4 


1 4 T A 
145.0 


1 oe: c 
lYO.O 


l7Dj/06 


74.4 


7 1 L 
/ 1 . 6 


4.0 


7A A 7 


1 A 
1.0 


LI L 

67.6 


14 1 A 
141.0 


1 OL A 
I76.O 


IVdo/d/ 


ill 1 
l/il. 1 




e / 
J. 6 


004 i 

274.0 


A 7 
0. / 


70 c 
77.0 


1 4K 0 

140.8 


OA 1 L 

201.6 


\ Q07 / DO 
170/ /do 


186. 0 
















I7/O/ /I 


lo.o 


\ 7 7 

1/. 7 


0 I 
Z. 1 


3o«D 


A A 

0.0 


'>A O 

20.2 


C 7 

5.3 


14 A 

21.0 


17/1//^ 


22.4 


1 0 7 
19.3 


o 7 

2.3 


44.1 


A A 

0.0 


i L 7 

16.3 


7 4 

7. 1 


*)7 J 

23.4 


1 0 7 T / T 7 


26.8 


19. 1 


o 0 

2.2 


42.1 


A A 

0.0 


7A 4 

30.4 


c C 

5.5 


22.3 




16.2 


21.7 


0 1 

2. 1 


46.0 


A 1 

0.1 


77 1 

3o. 1 


3.5 


OA C 

20.3 


I7/4/ 75 


0 7 

7.5 


26. D 


1 0 

1.8 


48.5 


A 1 

0.1 


07 7 


4 4 

1.1 


4 B 1 

18.3 


\i I2i to 


11.0 


00 1 

ZO. 1 




j/.T 


A 1 

0.1 


71 Q 
Ol.T 


( A 
1.0 


407 
It. 7 


IV/o/ / / 


10 i 

lo. 1 


00 7 

2o. 7 


n A 
2.0 


RO C 

Do. 5 


A 1 

0.1 


25.7 


0 A 

2.0 


20.3 


1 C 7 "I / 7 0 
17/ / / /O 


7A 7 


07 A 

2/ .U 


0 1 




A f 
0. I 


7A L 
OO.6 


e 7 
3.0 


17 ■ . 


1 0 70 / TO 


-jZ. 1 


00 0 

22.7 


0 1 
2. 1 


AO T 

48.3 


A A 
0.0 


70 C 

32.5 


A 7 

4.5 


22.8 


i 07O /Q/\ 

IV/V/oO 


25. 1 


OC 7 

25.0 


0 7 
2.3 


KO 4 

38.1 


A f 

0.1 


77 4 

57.4 


0 7 

2.3 


21.3 


IYdO/BI 


24.5 


2B.8 


'y 7 

2.3 


o4.B 


A 1 

0*1 


4 1 0 

41.2 


4 / 

1.6 


14 7 

21.3 




26. 7 


70 L 

j2.6 


0 7 
2.3 


73.8 


A f 

0.1 


40 0 

48.2 


7 / 
5.6 


07 4 
23.1 


1 OOO /OT 


7 4 C 

31.5 


7 1 C 

31.5 


2.4 


75.3 


A 1 

0.2 


41. 1 


C 7 

5.3 


OJ 7 

24.7 


l70j/04 


Mi 0 


0 J 0 

24.8 


1 7 
2.7 


63i7 


A i 

0.1 


TO 0 

58.9 


1 A 0 

10.2 


7A *> 

30.2 


17D4/DJ 


70 i 


07 1 

n . 1 


2.6 


7A Z. 

70.0 


A 1 

0.2 


7D O 

58.8 


1 1 0 

11.2 


71 J 

31.4 


IVos/oo 


38.8 


0 > o 

z6.2 


2.3 


06.0 


A J 

0.4 


04 C 

24.5 


8. 8 


IB C 

2t.3 


1986/87 


CI 4 

51. 1 


OC 1 

25. 1 


0 1 

2.4 


39.3 


A 1 

0.1 


on n 

29.9 


4 A 0 

10.9 


71 B 

31.8 


4 007 ZOO 


48.0 
















PDA 7 UC 


















4 n7A /7 * 


ML i 

46. 1 


4 A 7 

40.7 


3.6 


14/. i 

146. 1 


A M 

0.4 


18.6 


126.9 


4 4 1 0 

141.8 


* 07 1 / 70 

IV/U 72 


32.2 


43.6 


4.3 


1 00 C 

189,5 


A 7 

0.3 


04 0 

24.2 


4 7 i A 

136.0 


t C 1 7 

151.3 


A 070 / 77 


ML L 

46.6 


7D Jl 

00. 4 


Jl 7 

4.7 


182,0 


A J 

0.4 


70 7 

58.7 


1 JO 7 

142.5 


1 CD L 

158.6 


1y7j/74 


0I.7 


41.6 


4.5 


in/ n 

186.8 


A 1 

0.2 


J A T 

40.7 


4 7B C 

139.5 


156.2 


1974/75 


21.8 


40.7 


3.7 


150.9 


A C 

0.5 


35.9 


4 AA A 

100.4 


4 4 J n 

116.8 


1 07c / 7 L 


OA IT 

20.5 


JO L 

42.6 


4.4 


1 OC 4 

185,4 


A M 

0.4 


JO 7 

49.3 


lie L 

115.6 


i 77 0 
155.9 


i Q7 / / T7 


23.2 


43.3 


4.5 


194.4 


A T 

0.3 


CA 4 

50. 1 


113.6 


1 70 C 

132.5 


i DTI inn 


TC 7 

35.3 


44.2 


4.7 


205.7 


0.3 


55.6 


116,9 


4 7 i n 

136.9 


1978/79 


4B.9 


43.2 


5.1 


222.1 


0.3 


59.5 


134.6 


4 EC 1 

155.4 


1979/80 


56.4 


41.8 


5.7 


238.4 


0.3 


71.0 


139.9 


161.5 


1980/81 


62.6 


41.3 


4.8 


198.3 


0.3 


70.7 


124.4 


148.0 


1981/82 


42.5 


43.4 


5.7 


246.6 


0.3 


60.0 


127.6 


153.2 


1982/83 


76.2 


43.2 


5.8 


250.7 


0.4 


53.0 


138.8 


166.9 


1983/84 


107.4 


32.9 


4.2 


137.1 


0.7 


56.6 


120.7 


150.7 


1984/85 


37,9 


43.6 


5.5 


237.7 


0.8 


56.6 


131.9 


164.1 


1985/86 


55.6 


45.4 


6.0 


274,3 


0.6 


43.1 


132.1 


166.5 


1986/87 


121.0 


27.2 


8.6 


235.3 


0.5 


49.5 


135.0 


169.7 



1987/88 137,5 

MOTES: COARSE GRAINS INCLUDE CORN, SORGHUM, BARLEY, OATS AND RYE. 
SOURCE: OFFICIAL USDA STATISTICS OR ESTIMATES, 
COMMODITY PROGRAMS, FAS, USDA 



25 



U.S. VWEAT, CCRN, SORGHUM, BARLEY, OATS, AND RYE SUPPLY/DISTRIBUnON 
MILLION BUSHELS/MILLION ACRES 



Beginning 
Stoctcs 



Harvested 
Area 



Yield Production Imports Exports Feed Usage 



Total 
Domestic Use 



Wheat 

1976/77 

1977/78 
1978/79 
1979/80 
1980/81 
1981/82 
1982/83 
1983/84 
1984/85 
1985/86 
1986/87 
1987/88 

Com 

1976/77 
1977/78 
1978/79 
1979/80 
1930/81 
1981/82 
1982/83 
1983/84 
1984/85 
1985/86 
1986/87 
1987/88 

Sorriium 



666 


70.9 


30.3 


2,149 


3 


950 


75 


755 


1,113 


66.7 


30.7 


2,046 


2 


1,124 


192 


859 


1,178 
924 


56.5 


31.4 


1,776 


2 


1,194 


158 


837 


62.5 


34.2 


2,134 


2 


1,375 


86 


783 


902 


71.1 


33.5 


2,381 


3 


1,514 


60 


783 


989 


80.6 


34.5 


2,785 


3 


1,771 


B5 


847 


1,159 


77.9 


35.5 


2,765 


8 


1,509 


195 


908 


1,515 


61.4 


39.4 


2,420 


4 


1,429 


369 


1,111 


1,399 


66.9 


38.8 


2,595 


9 


1,424 


410 


1,154 


1,425 


64.7 


37.5 


2,425 


14 


900 


325 


1,085 


1,879 






2,178 


4 


1,100 


400 


1,170 



1,792 



633 
I,B6 
1,436 
1,710 
2,034 
1,392 
2,537 
3,523 
1,006 
I,W8 
3,886 
4,487 



71.5 


88.0 


6,289 


70.6 


92.1 


6,505 
7,268 


71.9 


101. 0 


72.4 


109.5 


7,928 
6,639 


73.0 


91.0 


74.6 


108.9 


8,119 


72.7 


113.2 


8,235 


51.5 


81.1 


4,175 


71.9 


106.7 


7,674 


75.1 


118.0 


8,865 
7,575 



3 


1,657 
1,909 


3,590 


3 


3,717 


1 


2,124 


4,264 


1 


2,415 
2,408 


4,549 


1 


4,157 


1 


2,010 


4,169 


1 


1,834 


4,521 


3 


1,902 


3,818 


4 


1,865 


4,116 


3 


1,400 


4,100 


1 


1,625 


4,200 



4,133 
4,298 
4,872 
5,189 
4,875 
4,966 
5,416 
4,793 
5,170 
5,230 
5,350 



1976/77 


49 


14.5 


49.0 


711 


- 


254 


449 


459 


1977 llR 
i.y / / / / o 




W 9, 
.o 


jd 


1 oJ. 








/./. 9 

44-/ 


1978/79 


157 


13.4 


54.5 


731 


- 


190 


540 


552 






1 9 Q 


uZ .0 


OU/ 




330 


An/. 

494 


506 


1 oan /SI 


i.JjO 




-+0 .J 


J/y 






336 


347 




^7 
J 1 


117 


azl n 


37 A 
3/ D 




9 An 
ZbU 


/.I A 
4-iD 


AO"? 


LyOLj O-j 


9A7 


1 A 1 


1 

Jr) . J. 


OJJ 




91 n 


4/D 


/ Q C 




JO/ 


inn 


AS 7 
4-0 . / 


too 




9/. ^ 


/. 1 0 


4ZZ 


J-7t>-+/ OD 






JO .4 


AAA 
ODD 




9Q7 






LyoDf oO 


iiJO 


1 A 7 


A A 7 
DO ./ 


1,1J_5 




ZZj 


5/5 


59:j 


1 CWA /37 


J J7 






oXJ 




ZbU 


5/5 


D93 


1 QUI liiA 


















1 

Barley 


128 


8.4 


45.6 


383 


11 


66 


172 


330 


1311 llB> 


126 


9 .7 


44.0 


L7P, 


9 


S7 
J/ 


177 

17 / 


J JJ 


1978/79 


173 


9.2 


49 !2 


455 


U) 


ZO 






1979/80 


228 


7.5 


50.9 


333 


12 


cc 
JJ 


9/V. 


J/0 


1980/81 


192 


7.3 


49.7 


361 


10 


77 


174 


349 


1981/82 


137 


9.0 


52.4 


474 


10 


100 


198 


372 


1982/83 


148 


9.0 


57.2 


516 


11 


47 


941 


41 1 


1983/84 


217 


9.7 


52.3 


509 


7 


92 


283 


452 


19^/85 


139 


11.2 


53.4 


599 


10 


77 


304 




1985/86 


247 


11.5 


51.0 


539 


7 


25 


300 


470 


1986/87 


349 






600 


5 


45 


300 


475 


1987/88 


434 
















Oats 


















I'^lblll 


205 


11.8 


45.9 


540 


2 


H) 


490 


573 


1:978{79 


164 
313 




55.6 
52.3 




2 
1 


12 
13 


509 
525 


594 
603 


1979/80 


280 


9.7 


54.4 


511 


1 


4 


492 


568 


1980/81 


236 


3.7 


53.0 


459 


1 


13 


432 


506 


1981/32 


177 


9.4 


54.2 


510 


2 


7 


454 


530 


1982/83 


152 


10.3 


57.3 


593 


4 


3 


441 


526 


1983/34 


220 


9.1 


52.6 


Wll 


30 


2 


466 


544 


1984/85 


L31 


3.2 


53.0 


474 


34 


1 


433 


508 


1985/86 


180 


3.2 


63.6 


519 


25 


2 


450 


530 


1986/87 


192 






530 


25 


2 


450 


535 


1987/88 


210 
















Rye 

1976/77 


4 


0.7 


21.4 


15 






5 


15 


1977/78 


4 


0.7 


24.4 


17 






7 


17 


1978/79 


4 


0.9 


26.0 


24 






8 


19 


1979/80 


9 


0.9 


25.7 


11 




2 


7 


17 


1980/81 


12 


0.7 


24.6 


16 




8 


7 


16 


1981/82 


4 


0.7 


26.6 


18 




2 


8 


18 


1982/83 


3 


0.7 


28.9 


20 


3 




10 


20 


1983/84 


6 


0.9 


30.3 


27 


2 


1 


12 


22 


1984/85 


11 


1.0 


33.0 


32 


1 


1 


14 


24 


1985/86 


20 


0.7 


30.0 


21 


2 


1 


B 


23 


1986/37 


18 






23 


1 


1 


14 


23 


1987/38 


18 
















Notes: Commodity Years As Follows: 


June/May-Wheat, Barley, Oats and Rye 


:; October 


/ September-Corn 


and 


Sorgnum 


















"-" Denotes zer 


o. 
















Source: World 


Agricultural Supply and Demand EsCioates 


No. 193, May 9, 


1986 







26 



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27 



WKLI HEAT A» COWSE GRAIIK 
StmY/KHMO 1960/61-1986/87 
NILLIQNS OF HETIilC TMS/NECTAKS 



NNtAT 



CMRSE 





AREA 


riELD 


PRODUCTION 


WRLI 


UTILIZATION 


ENDING 


STOOS AS 




HARVESrtO 






IRAK 1/ 


TOTM. 2/ 


sioas 3/ 


I OF UTIL 


MIS C3»3£ SRAIII3 
















1960/61 


526.6 


1.30 


686.3 


65.5 


672.0 


191.5 


28.5 


1961/62 


S25.8 


1.25 


659.C 


76.8 


685.6 


164.9 


24.0 


1962/63 


S27.8 


1.35 


711.4 


75.4 


709.6 


166.6 


23.5 


1963/64 


531.2 


1.32 


701.7 


90.0 


702.6 


16S.7 


23.6 


1964/63 


537.7 


1.38 


743.5 


87.0 


742.0 


167.2 


22.5 


1965/66 


SS5.6 


1.40 


748.0 


103.0 


782.1 


130.4 


16.7 


1966/67 


S34.7 


1.55 


827.2 


96.0 


799.3 


158.3 


19.8 


1967/68 


545.7 


l.SS 


848.4 


89.9 


830.8 


175.9 


21.2 


1968/69 


549.8 


1.61 


883.5 


82.0 


854.4 


205.0 


24.0 


1969/70 


548.2 


1.62 


885.6 


89.1 


902.6 


188.0 


20.8 


1970/71 


538.3 


l.iS 


888.8 


101.0 


929.4 


147.5 


15.9 


1971/72 


545.4 


i.Bt 


980.1 


101.3 


959.7 


167.9 


17.5 


1972/73 


536.8 


1.77 


951.3 


126.2 


986.6 


132.4 


13.4 


1973/74 


561.2 


1.B6 


1044.5 


134.0 


1040.4 


136.0 


13.1 


1974/75 


562.0 


1.76 


991.4 


129.3 


996.1 


129.8 


13.0 


1975/76 


574.7 


1.74 


1002. B 


141.9 


1001.6 


128.7 


12.8 


1976/77 


5n.9 


1.95 


1126.2 


147.1 


1071.9 


183.3 


17.1 


1977/78 


5n.5 


1.89 


1085.8 


161.6 


1090.3 


178.3 


16.4 


1978/79 


572.7 


2.10 


1202.0 


164.7 


1177.1 


203.0 


17.2 


1979/80 


571.5 


2.04 


1168. 4 


185.2 


1187.7 


183.7 


15.5 


1980/81 


579.4 


2.03 


1175.9 


202.1 


980.0 


168.8 


17.2 


1981/82 


SB8.B 


2.07 


1218.2 


197.9 


1181.1 


205.9 


17.4 


1982/83 


576.7 


2.18 


1258.2 


188.6 


1219.3 


244.8 


20.1 


1983/84 


563.4 


2.09 


1176.5 


193.9 


1247.9 


173.5 


13.9 


1984/85 


570.1 


2.32 


1323.2 


207.8 


1273.9 


217.8 


17.0 


1985/86 4/ 


572.3 


2.35 


1346.0 


175.5 


1271.6 


292.2 


23.0 


1986/87 5/ 


502.3 


2.06 


1329.4 


181.3 


1308.6 


313.0 


23.9 


1960/61 


202.2 


I.IB 


238.4 


41.9 


234.8 


81.8 


34.8 


1961/62 


203.5 


1.10 


224.8 


46.8 


236.4 


70.2 


29.7 


1962/63 


206.9 


1.22 


251.8 


44.3 


248.1 


74.0 


29.8 


1963/64 


206.3 


1.13 


233.9 


56.0 


240.0 


67.8 


28.3 


1964/65 


215.9 


1.25 


270.4 


52.0 


262.0 


76.2 


29.1 


1965/66 


215.5 


1.22 


263.3 


61.0 


281.6 


55.3 


19.6 


1966/67 


213.6 


1.44 


306.7 


56.0 


279.8 


32.1 


29.4 


1967'68 


219.2 


1.36 


297.6 


51.0 


289.1 


90.6 


31.3 


1968/69 


223.9 


1.48 


330.3 


45.0 


306.4 


115.0 


37.5 


1969/70 


217.8 


1.42 


310.0 


50.0 


327.3 


97.3 


29.9 


1970/71 


207.0 


1.52 


313.7 


55.0 


357.2 


74.3 


22.0 


1971(72 


212.9 


1.65 


351.0 


52.0 


344.3 


31.0 


23.5 


1972/73 


211.0 


1.63 


343.4 


67.0 


361.8 


62.6 


17.3 


1973/74 


217.1 


1.72 


373.2 


63.0 


365.6 


70.2 


19.2 


1974/75 


220.1 


1.64 


360.2 


64.3 


366.6 


63.7 


17.4 


1975/76 


225.4 


1.S8 


356.6 


66.7 


356.3 


64.2 


le.o 


1976/77 


233.2 


1.81 


421.4 


63.3 


385.9 


99.8 


25.9 


1977/78 


227.1 


1.69 


384.1 


72.8 


399.4 


84.2 


21.1 


1978/79 


228.9 


1.95 


446.8 


72.0 


430.2 


100.9 


23.4 


1979/80 


228.3 


1.86 


424.5 


36.0 


444.3 


81.0 


18.2 


1980/81 


237.0 


1.87 


443.0 


94.1 


445.8 


78.2 


17.5 


1991/82 


238.7 


1.88 


448.4 


101.3 


441.5 


85.0 


19.3 


1982/83 


237.5 


2.02 


479.1 


98.7 


467.9 


96.3 


20.6 


1983/84 


229.1 


2.14 


490.9 


102.0 


486.3 


101.0 


20.8 


1984/85 


231.2 


2.23 


S1S.2 


106.1 


500.0 


116.2 


23.2 


198S/86 4/ 


229.6 


2.19 


503.2 


37.6 


493.7 


125.6 


25.4 


19S6/87 5/ 


203.9 


2.21 


510.4 


91.7 


506.3 


129.7 


25.6 


GRAINS 
















1960/61 


324.4 


1.38 


447.9 


24.0 


437.2 


109.7 


25.1 


1961/62 


322.4 


1.3S 


434.2 


30.0 


449.3 


94.7 


21.1 


1962/63 


320.9 


1.43 


459.5 


31.0 


461.5 


92.7 


20.1 


1963/64 


324.9 


1.44 


467.8 


34.0 


462.6 


97.9 


21.2 


1964/65 


321.8 


1.47 


473.1 


35.0 


480.0 


91.0 


18.9 


1965/66 


320.1 


1.51 


484.7 


42.0 


500.5 


75.2 


15.0 


1966/67 


321.0 


1.62 


520.4 


40.0 


519.5 


76.1 


14.7 


1967/68 


326.5 


1.69 


550.8 


39.0 


541.6 


35.3 


15.7 


1968/69 


325.9 


1.70 


552.7 


37.0 


548.0 


90.0 


16.4 


1969/70 


330.4 


1.74 


575.6 


39.0 


575.4 


90.2 


15.7 


1970/71 


331.3 


1.74 


575.2 


46.0 


592.2 


n.2 


12.4 


1971/72 


332.5 


1.89 


629.1 


49.3 


615.4 


87.0 


14.1 


1972/73 


325.7 


1.87 


607.8 


59.2 


624.8 


69.9 


11.2 


1973/74 


344.1 


1.95 


671.3 


71.0 


674.8 


6S.8 


9.7 


1974/75 


341.9 


1.85 


631.2 


65.0 


629.4 


66.0 


10.5 


1975/76 


349.3 


1.85 


646.1 


75.2 


645.3 


64.5 


10.0 


1976/n 


344.7 


2.04 


704.8 


83.9 


686.1 


33.4 


12.2 


1977/78 


346.4 


2.03 


701.6 


38.8 


690.9 


94.1 


13.6 


1978/79 


343.8 


2.20 


755.1 


92.7 


746.9 


102.1 


13.7 


1979/80 


343.2 


2.17 


743.9 


99.2 


743.3 


102.6 


13.8 


1980/81 


342.4 


2.14 


n2.9 


108.0 


745.1 


90.6 


12.2 


1981/82 


3S0.2 


2.20 


769.8 


96.6 


739.6 


120.9 


16.3 


1982/83 


339.2 


2.30 


779.1 


39.9 


751.4 


148.5 


19.8 


1983/84 


334.2 


2.05 


685.5 


91.9 


761.5 


72.6 


9.5 


I984/B5 


338.9 


2.38 


808.0 


101.7 


778.8 


101.7 


13.1 


1985/86 4/ 


J42.7 


2.46 


842.8 


87.9 


777.9 


166.5 


21.4 


1986/87 5/ 


298.3 


2.56 


819.0 


39.7 


302.3 


183.2 


22.8 



NOTE: 'STOCXS AS PERCENT OF UTILIZATION' REPRESENT TIC RATIO OF KVIKETING rEM ENIINS 
STOCIS TO TOTAL UTILIZATION. 

1/ TRADE DATA AS EIPRESSED IN THIS TABLE EiaUK INTRA-EC TRADE. NNEAT AW) COARSE GRAINS 
ME ON A JULI/JUK TRADE TEAR THROUGH 1975/76. FROII 1976/n ON, TIC TRAtE TEM FOR 
CtlWSE GRAINS IS KTOBER/SEPTENBER.. 

2/ FOR COUNTRIES FOR NHICH STOCKS HTA ARE NOT AVAILABLE (EiaiMING THE USSR) UTILIZATION 
ESTiHATES REPRESENT 'APPARENT' UTILIZATION, I.E. INCLUSE AMUAL SIOCX LEVEL AMUSTICNTS. 

3/ STOCKS BATA ARE BASED ON AN AGGREGATE OF DIFFERING LOCM. NUKETING YEARS ANB SHOULD NOT 
BE CSKTRUEI AS REPRESENTING NORLI STOCK LEVaS AT A FIIED POINT IN TIIC. STOCKS DATA 
ARE NOT AVALILA8LE FOR ALL COUNTRIES AND EICLUDE THOSE SUCH AS TiC PEOPLE'S REPUBLIC OF 
CHINA «« PARIS OF EASTERN EUROPE. NORLD STOCK LEVELS HAVE BEEN AtJUSTEB FOR ESTIMATED 
TEAR-TO-TEAR CHANGES IN USSR GRAIN STOCKS, BUT DO NOT PURPORT TO INaUtE THE AISaUTE 
LEVa OF USSR GRAIN STOCKS. 

4/ PRaiNINART. 

5/ PROJECTION. AREA AND YIELD DO NOT INaUSE U.S. FORECASTS FOR NHEAT OR COMSE GRAINS. 

SOURCES: PREPARED GC ESTIHTED ON TIC BASIS OF OFFICIAt. STATISTICS OF FOREISN SOvERMCNTS. 
OTICR FOREIGN SOURCE MTERIALS, REPORTS OF U.S. AGRICULIURAi ATTACKS MD FOREIGN SERVICE 
OFFICERS, RESULTS OF OFFICE RESEMCM AND RELATED IVORNATION. 



28 



WORLD RICE 1/ 
SUPPLY/DEMAND 1960/61-198e/87 
MILLIONS OF METRIC TONS/HECTARES 





AREA 


YIELD 11 


PRODUCTION 




CAL YR 


UTILIZATION 


ENDIN6 


STOCKS AS 




HARVESTED 




ROUGH 


HILLED 


EXPORTS 


TOTAL 3/ 


STOCKS 4/ 


I OF UTIL 


1960/61 


120.1 


1.95 


233.8 


160.0 


6.5 


160.3 


8.0 


5.0 


1961/62 


115.7 


1.86 


215.7 


147.3 


6.3 


147.7 


7.0 


4.8 


1962/63 


119.6 


1.91 


228.2 


155.2 


7.3 


155.3 


6.9 


4.4 


1963/64 


121.5 


2.05 


248.4 


169.1 


7.7 


167.2 


8.7 


5.2 


1964/65 


125.3 


2.12 


265.6 


180.8 


8.2 


177.8 


11.8 


6.6 


1965/66 


124.0 


2.05 


254.2 


173.3 


7.9 


173.1 


12.0 


6.9 


1966/67 


125.7 


2.09 


262.5 


179.3 


7.8 


180.7 


iO.6 


5.9 


1967/68 


127.0 


2.19 


277.8 


189.4 


7.2 


186.6 


13.4 


7.2 


1968/69 


128.7 


2.23 


287.0 


195.6 


7.5 


192.3 


16.7 


8.7 


1969/70 


131.4 


2.25 


295.9 


201.6 


8.2 


199.7 


18.6 


9.3 


1970/71 


132.7 


2.36 


313.5 


213.6 


8.6 


214.5 


17.7 


8.3 


1971/72 


134.9 


2.35 


317.5 


216.4 


8.7 


218.8 


1S.4 


7.0 


1972/73 


132.7 


2.31 


307.2 


209.6 


8.4 


214.6 


10.4 


4.8 


1973/74 


136.6 


2.45 


334.7 


228.0 


7.7 


225.9 


12.5 


5.5 


1974/75 


137.9 


2.41 


332.0 


226.3 


7.3 


228. 2 


10.7 


4.7 


1975/76 


142.7 


2.51 


358.6 


243.9 


8.4 


235.3 


19.3 


8.2 


1976/77 


141.4 


2.46 


348.3 


236.9 


10.6 


238.4 


17.8 


7.4 


1977/78 


143.3 


2.58 


370.0 


251.4 


9.6 


246.4 


22.8 


9.2 


1978/79 


144.1 


2.69 


387.6 


263.7 


12.0 


258.6 


27.9 


lO.B 


1979/80 


141.5 


2.67 


378.6 


258.1 


12.7 


262.6 


23.4 


8.9 


1980/81 


144.5 


2.76 


398.9 


271.0 


13.1 


272.3 


22.1 


8.1 


1981/82 


145.2 


2.84 


412.7 


280.6 


11.8 


281.5 


21.3 


7.6 


1982/83 


141.2 


2.97 


419.5 


285.7 


11.9 


289.6 


17.3 


6.0 


1983/84 


144.3 


3.14 


452.7 


308.0 


12.6 


308.1 


17.3 


5.6 


1984/85 


144.2 


3.25 


468.0 


318.6 


11.4 


314.0 


21.9 


7.0 


1985/86 5/ 


143.1 


3.23 


462.9 


315.0 


11.7 


313.0 


23.9 


7.6 


1986/87 6/ 


144.5 


3.26 


471.2 


320.2 


11.9 


318.0 


26.2 


8.2 



NOTE: STOCKS AS PERCENT OF UTILIZATION REPRESENT THE RATION OF MARKETING YEAR ENDING STOCKS TO 
TOTAL UTILIZATION. 

1/ PRODUCTION IS EXPRESSED ON BOTH ROUGH AND HILLED BASES; STOCKS, EXPORTS, AND UTIZIZATION ARE 

EXPRESSED ON A HILLED BASIS. 
II YIELDS ARE BASED ON ROUGH PRODUCTION. 

3/ FOR COUNTRIES FOR WHICH STOCKS DATA ARE NOT AVAILABLE UTILIZATION ESTIMATES REPRESENT 
"APPARENT" UTILIZATION, I.E. THEY INCLUDE ANNUAL STOCK LEVEL ADJUSTMENTS. 

4/ STOCKS DATA ARE BASED ON AN AGGREGATE OF DIFFERING MARKET YEARS AND SOULD NOT BE CONSTRUED AS 
REPRESENTING WORLD STOCK LEVELS AT A FIXED POINT IN TIME. STOCKS DATA ARE NOT AVAILABLE FOR 
ALL COUNTRIES AND EXCLUDE THE USSR, CHINA, NORTH DOREA AND PARTS OF EASTERN EUROPE. 

5/ PRELIHINARY. 

6/ PROJECTION. AREA AND YIELD DOES NOT INCLUDE U.S. FORECAST. 

SOURCES: PREPARED OR ESTIMATED ON THE BASIS OF OFFICIAL STATISTICS OF FOREIGN GOBERNMENTS, OTHER 
FOREIGN SOURCE MATERIALS, REPORTS OF U.S. AGRICULTURAL ATTACHES AND FOREIGN SERVICE OFFICERS, 
RESULTS OF OFFICE RESEARCH, AND RELATED INFORMATION. 

COHHODIYT PROGRAMS, FAS, USDA GRAIN AND FEED DIVISION 



29 



WORLD TOTAL BRAINS 
SUPPLY/DEHAND 1960/61-1986/87 
HILLIONS OF METRIC TONS/HECTARES 





AREA 


YIELD 


PRODUCTION 


HORLD 


UTILIZATION 


ENDING 


STOCKS AS 




HARVESTED 






TRADE 1/ 


TOTAL 11 


STOCKS 3/ 


I OF UTIL 


1960/61 


646.7 


1.31 


846.3 


72.4 


832.3 


199.4 


24.0 


1961/62 


641.6 


1.26 


806.3 


83.2 


833.3 


171.9 


20.6 


1962/63 


647.4 


1.34 


866.5 


82.7 


864.9 


173.5 


20.1 


1963/64 


652.6 


1.33 


870.7 


97.7 


869.9 


174.5 


20.1 


1964/65 


663.0 


1.39 


924.3 


95.3 


919.8 


179.0 


19.5 


1965/66 


659.6 


1.40 


921.3 


110.9 


955.2 


142.4 


14.9 


1966/67 


660.4 


1.52 


1006.4 


103.7 


980.0 


168.9 


17.2 


1967/68 


672.7 


1.54 


1037.8 


97.1 


1017.4 


189.3 


18.6 


1968/69 


678.4 


1.59 


1079.2 


89.5 


1046.7 


221.7 


21.2 


1969/70 


679.6 


1.60 


1087.2 


97.3 


1102.3 


206.6 


18.7 


1970/71 


671.0 


1.64 


1102.5 


109.6 


1143.B 


165.2 


14.4 


1971/72 


680.2 


1.76 


1196.5 


110.0 


1178.5 


183.3 


15.6 


1972/73 


669.5 


1.73 


1160.9 


134.6 


1201.2 


142.8 


11.9 


1973/74 


697.8 


1.82 


1272.6 


141.6 


1266.3 


148.5 


11.7 


1974/75 


699.8 


1.74 


1217.7 


136.6 


1224.2 


140.4 


11.5 


1975/76 


717.4 


1.74 


1246.7 


150.3 


1236.9 


148.0 


12.0 


1976/77 


719.3 


1.90 


1363.1 


157.7 


1310.4 


201.1 


15.3 


1977/78 


716.8 


1.87 


1337.2 


171.2 


1336.7 


201.1 


15.0 


1978/79 


716.8 


2.04 


1465.7 


176.7 


1435.7 


230.9 


16.1 


1979/80 


713.0 


2.00 


1426.6 


197.9 


1450.3 


207.1 


14.3 


1980/81 


723.9 


2.00 


1447.0 


215.2 


1252.3 


190.9 


15.2 


1981/82 


734.0 


2.04 


1498.9 


209.7 


1461.7 


227.2 


15.5 


1982/83 


717.9 


2.15 


1543.9 


200.5 


1507.9 


262.1 . 


17.4 


1983/84 


707.6 


2.10 


1484.5 


206.5 


1555.0 


190.8 


12.3 


1984/85 


714.3 


2.30 


1641.8 


219.2 


1593.5 


239.7 


15.0 


1985/86 4/ 


715.6 


2.32 


1661.0 


187.3 


1584.2 


316.1 


20.0 


1986/87 5/ 


646.8 


2.09 


1649.6 


193.2 


1626.6 


339.2 


20.9 



NOTE: "STOCKS AS PERCENT OF UTILIZATION" REPRESENT THE RATION OF MARKETING YEAR ENDING 
STOCKS TO TOTAL UTIZIZATION. 

1/ TRADE DATA AS EXPRESSED IN THIS TABLE EXLUDE INTRA-EC TRADE. wHEAT AND COARSE GRAINS 
ARE ON A JULY/JUNE BASIS THROUGH 1975/76. FROfl 1976/77 ON, THE TRADE YEAR FOR 
COARSE BRAINS IS OCTOBER/SEPTEMBER. 

2/ FOR COUNTRIES FOR HHICH STOCKS DATA ARE NOT AVAILABLE (EXCLUDING THE USSR) UTILIZATION 
ESTIMATES REPRESENT "APPARENT' UTILIZATION, I.E. INCLUDE ANNUAL STOCK LEVEL ADJUSTMENTS. 

3/ STOCKS DATA ARE BASED ON AN AGGREGATE OF DIFFERING LOCAL MARKETING YEARS AND SHOULD NOT 
BE CONSTRUED AS REPRESENTING WORLD STOCK LEVELS AT A FIXED POINT IN TIME. STOCKS DATA 
ARE NOT AVAILABLE FOR ALL COUNTRIES AND EXCLUDE THOSE SUCH AS THE PEOPLE'S REPUBLIC OF 
CHINA AND PARTS OF EASTERN EUROPE. WORLD STOCK LEVELS HAVE BEEN ADJUSTED FOR ESTIMATED 
YEAR-TO-YEAR CHANGES IN USSR GRAIN STOCKS, BUT DO NOT PURPORT TO INCLUDE THE ABSOLUTE 
LEVEL OF USSR GRAIN STOCKS. 

4/ PRELIMINARY. 

5/ PROJECTION. AREA AND YIELD DO NOT INCLUDE U.S. FORECASTS FOR WHEAT, COARSE GRAINS OR RICE. 

SOURCES; PREPARED OR ESTIMATED ON THE BASIS OF OFFICIAL STATISTICS OF FOREIGN GOVENMENTS, 
OTHER FOREIGN SOURCE MATERIALS, REPORTS OF U.S. AGRICULTURAL ATTACHES AND FOREIGN SERVICE 
OFFICERS, RESULTS OF OFFICE RESEARCH AND RELATED INFORMATION. 

COMMODITY PROGRAMS, FAS, USDA GRAIN AND FEED DIVISION 



30 



EXPORT PRICES FOR WHEAT AND CORN MAY 1981-MAY 1986 
(BASIS FOB, U.S. DOLLARS PER METRIC TON) 











WHEAT 






CORN 








U.S. 


ARGENTINA 


CANADA 




AUSTRALIA 


U.S. 


ARGENTINA 






GULF 




VANCOUVER 


1/ 


STD. WHITE 


GULF 








#2 tl.W. 




#1 CWRS 12. 


5 




#3 Yellow 




1981 


CY 


177 


189 


212 




175 


134 


137 


1982 


CY 


162 


166 


187 




160 


110 


109 


1983 


CY 


158 


138 


185 




161 


137 


133 


1984 


CY 


153 


135 


186 




153 


138 


132 


1985 


CY 


138 


108 


178 




140 


113 


102 


1985 


















May 




137 


112 


180 




145 


118 


109 


Jane 




134 


107 


178 




141 


117 


111 


July 




130 


107 


171 




134 


114 


112 


Aug 




124 


98 


163 




128 


103 


101 


Sep 




128 


93 


165 




131 


103 


88 


Oct 




130 


92 


173 




134 


100 


90 


Nov 




136 


98 


181 




139 


108 


95 


Dec 




139 


114 


184 




144 


111 


100 


Jan 




133 


108 


182 




140 


109 


100 


Feb 




131 


102 


177 




133 


106 


92 


Mar 




136 


97 


183 




139 


101 


87 


Apr 


01 


137 


89 


185 




136 


104 


88 




08 


138 


104 


188 




138 


102 


89 




15 


110 


103 


181 




135 


100 


83 




22 


112 


102 


179 




136 


102 


85 




29 


129 


84 


179 




142 


102 


84 


May 


06 


138 


88 


177 




140 


105 


86 



1/ In Store Export Elevators 



31 



SELECTED WORLD GRAIN PRICES, GIF ROTTERDAM if 
Wheat Marketing Years 1970/71 - 1985/86 
(In U.S. dollars per metric ton) 



Wheat Corn 

U.S. No. 2 Dark Canadian U.S. No. 3 
Northern Spring Western Red Yellow 
14% Spring 13 1/2% Corn 



Dec 




177.67 


N.Q. 


119.25 


Jan 




174.00 


N.Q. 


116.50 


Feb 




174.00 


N.Q. 


117.00 


Mar 




167.5 


N.Q. 


111.65 


Apr 


01 


168.50 


N.Q. 


113.00 




08 


172.00 


N.Q. 


114.00 




15 


170.00 


N.Q. 


N.Q. 




22 


169.00 


N.Q. 


113.00 




29 


176.00 


N.Q. 


113.00 


May 


06 


164.50 


N.Q. 


114.00 



_!/ Asking prices for Rotterdam 30-day delivery, as shovm by Hamburg 
Mercantile Exchange. 



32 




33 



















1 1 
LL. 




1 




— ^ 
—J 


1 1 1 
LU 












< 






■ 









CO h- 
LU LU 

CJ z: 



CL LU 
CL 



CO 
O Q/ 
CL < 

LU 



o - 

CJ CO 

a 

Q 3 



O QQ 
S O 
Ll 

CO 



CO 

<: 

QQ 




CO 
ID 



CN 



o 
o 



o 



% 



00 



LU 



34 



FOOTNOTES TO WORLD GRAIN SUMMARY AND TRADE TABLES 



1) Incluaes wheat flour and products. 

2) Argentina, Australia, Canada, South Africa, and Thailand. 

3) Adjusted for transshipment through Cariaaian ports: excludes proaucts 
other than flour. 

4) Wneat, rye, corn, barley, oats, sorgiiuni, millet, and mixea grains. 

5) Production data includes all narvests occurring within tiie July-June year 
indicated, expect that small grain crops from the early harvesting 
Northern Hemisphere areas are "moved foreward'" i.e., trie Nay 1984 
harvests ifi areas such as India, North Africa, and southern United States 
are actually included in "1:^84/85" accounting period whicii beyins ouiy 1, 
1984, for wheat or October 1, 1984, for coarse grains. 

6) "Bunker weight" basis; not discounted for excess moisture and foreign 
material . 



7) Utilization data are based on an aggregate of differing local inarketiny 
years. For countries for which stocks data are not available (excluding 
the USSR) utilization estimates represent "apparent" utilization; i.e., 
they are inclusive of annual stock level adjustments. 

8) Stocks data are based on aggregate of differing local marketing ye^rs and 
should not be construed as representing world stock level at q fixed point 
in time. Stocks data are not available for all countries ano exclude 
those such as the People's Republic of Cnina, and parts of Easterfi 
Europe. The world stocks level has been adjusted for estimated 
year-to-year changes in the USSR grain stocks, out do not purport to 
include the entire ausolute level of USSR stocks. 



9) Inclusive of Soviet stock changes; see footnote 8. 



This circular was prepared by the Grain and Feed Division, Commodity Programs, 
FAS/USDA, Washington, D.C. 20Z50. Furtfier information may be obtained by 
writing the Division or telephoning (2U2) 447-2009. 

Note: Tfie previous report in the series was World Grain Si tuation/uutlook . 
Foreign Agriculture Circular FG-4-8d April 1986. For furtrier details on the 
world grain production and USSR outlook see "World Crop Production" Foreign 
Agriculture Circular WCP-5-86, May 10, 1986, and "USSR Grain Situation and 
Outlook" Foreign Agriculture Circular SG-t)-86, May 198o. 



*U.S. GOVERNMENT PRINTING OFFICE: 1 986-^^-90-91 7 s 2Gi<-83/FAS 



35 



UNITED STATES DEPARTMENT OF AGRICULTURE j 

WASHINGTON, D.C. 20250 FIRST-CLASS MAIL 

POSTAGE & FEES PAID 

USDA-FAS 

OFFICIAL BUSINESS WASHINGTON, D.C. 

PENALTY FOR PRIVATE USE. $300 PERMIT No. G-262 



If your address should be changed PRINT 

OR TYPE the new address, including ZIP CODE and 
return the whole sheet and/or envelope to: 

FOREIGN AGRICULTURAL SERVICE, Room 4644 So. 
U.S. Department of Agriculture 
Washington, D.C 20250 



- -nie summary of this report and other statistical, economic, marketing and = 

- news reports are available within minutes of their releases through USDA's = 
= EDI SERVICE. For more information, call or write Russel Forte 202-447-5505 

= OGPA, USDA WASHINGTON, D.C. 20250. * = 




United States 
V\ Department of 
' Agriculture 

Foreign 
Agricultural 
Service 



5~- 



Foreign Agriculture Circular 



Grains 



FG 6-86 

June 1986 



World Grain Situation and Outlook 



Our cover graphs this month show how recent trends in grain imports are reasserting 
themselves in two key growth markets. After some fall-off in 1985/86, imports are 
expected to rebound in both North African and Far Eastern markets, and to account 
for a large share of the overall growth in world grain trade expected in 1986/87. 
In both cases, rapid development of utilization is matched by only moderate 
increases in production. Accounting for only about 7 percent of grain utilization, 
these country groups are responsible for over 34 percent of world imports. 
Additional graphs, showing the patterns for otner regions of the world, are found 
on pages 9-11. 

TRENDS IN MAJOR GRAIN IMPORT MARKETS 1/ 



FAR EAST 2/ 



NORTH AFRICA 3/ 



MMT 

60 



SO 



40 - 



30 - 



20 - 



10 - 



UTILIZATION 




ENDING STOCKS 



J — I — I — I I I u 



UTILIZATION 



n 



00 

ay 




1/ Grain includes wheat and coarse grains. Wheat and coarse grain imports are on 
a July/ June basis through 1975/76. From 1976/77 on, the trade year for coarse 
grains is October/ September . 

2/ Japan, South Korea, Taiwan, Hong Kong, Singapore, Indonesia, Malaysia, 
Philippines. 

3/ Egypt, Algeria, Tunisia, Morocco, Libya. 

Additional graphs on pages 9-11, supporting data located on pages 12-13. 



Approved by the World Agricultural Outlook Board - USDA 



June n, 1986 



CONTENTS Page 

World Grdin Outlook 3 

World Wlieat Outlook 4 

World Codrse Grain Outlook 6 

World Rice Outlook 7 



T ABLES 

Trends in M jor Grain Import Markets (European Community) 9 

Trends in Major Grain import Markets (USSR, China, t. Europe) 10 

Trends in Major Grain Import Markets (All Other Markets) il 

Trends in Major Grain Import Markets (Supporting Dataj 12-1j 

World Summary Tables: Wheat and Coarse Grains, Wheat, 

Coarse Grains, Rice, Corn, Sorgnum, and Barley 14-20 

World Wheat and Flour Trace 21 

World Coarse Grain Trade 22 

World Rice Trade Z6 

European Community: Grain Supply-Disappeararice 24 

Eastern Europe. Grain Suppiy-Disappearance 25 

USSR and China: Grain Supply-Disappearance 26 

Wheat. Supply-Di sappearfince for Selecced Major Exporters 27 

Coarse Grains; Supply-Disappearance for Selected Major Exporters 26 

U.S.: Wheat and Coarse Grains ^9 

U.S.. Wheat, Corn, Sorghum, Barley, Oats and Rye Supply -Oi sappearance .. jO 

U.S.. Rice Supply-Distribution - >5l 

World Wheat and Coarse Grain Supply/Demana 32 

World Rice Supply/Demand o3 

World Total Grains Supply/ Demand 34 

VieeKly Export Prices for Wheat and Corn. U S., Canada, 

Australia, and Argentina 35 

Selected World Grain Prices, CIF Rotterdam 36 

Footnotes to World Grain Summary Tables 37 



2 



**WORLD GRAIN SITUATION/OUTLOOK** 



Although it is still too early to identify any dppreciaoie changes in expectea 
global grain trade patterns for 1986/87, there have oeen several major 
year-end adjustments for 198b/86 trade. These aajustments are expectea to 
increase the already forecast record global stocks which, togetner with 
prospects for near-record production in 1986, will probably result in another 
year of record supplies and surpluses. Combine this witn the expected 
agressive marketing intentions of the United States, the European Community 
(EC), Australia, Canada, and other exporting countries, and 1986/87 appears to 
be taking on the intensely competitive nature of 1985/86. In 1986/87, 
however, the world grain markets are expected to have the added feature of 
increased importer demand, demand which is expected to support an almost 7 
percent increase in trade from 1985/86. This recovery in world grain trade, 
however, still leaves world trade at only 182 million tons - 15 million tons 
lower than the average trade level for 1982/83 - 1984/85. 



Highlights from the 1985/86 and 1986/87 grain situations include: 



--Large declines in the 1985/86 export prospects for U.S. coarse grains. 



—A mill ion- ton decline in the 198d/86 U.S. wheat export forecast. 



--Sharply lower 198^/86 corn and sorgfium import forecasts for several 
Latin American countries including Brazil, Veiiezuela, and Mexico. 



- Another cut in the 1985/86 EC wiieat export forecast. 



--Improved 1985/86 export prospects for Chinese corn, partially because 
of lower Soutii African corn export dvailabil ities. 



--Lower forecast 1985/86 wheat import demand for Nigeria and Brazil. 



--A 2-mil 1 ion-ton increase in the Soviet 1986/87 wheat and coarse grain 
import forecasts following a 3-percent decline in crop prospects. 



--Lower crop prospects for 1986 EC wheat and barley - ample stocKS should 
allow exports to continue unchanged. 



**WHEAT** 



The outlook for 1986/87 world wheat trade at nearly 9^^ million tons is 
virtually uncnarjged from a month ago. Smaller crop prospects in the Soviet 
Union will probably mean lower 19bo/87 availaoil i ties and nigher forecast 
import demand. In the European Community, lower forecast 1 9bO outturn will 
cut domestic supplies, but exports are not expected to change as large surplus 
stocks exist. World wheat ending stocks for 1986/87 are now forecast at '\'i6 
million tons, down about b million tons from last month's estimate, aue 
primarily to the lower crop forecast. At this level, 1986/87 ending scocKs 
represent the first time since 1981/62 that stocKs have not increased 
significantly from the year before, for the past 5 seasons wheat stocKs have 
increased an average of 10 million tons from year-to-year. Prospects for 
1985/86 July June world wheat trade continue to decline, tnis month, at 8o 
million tons forecast trade is nearly 20 percent oelow 1984/8d. Wheat export 
forecasts for the United States and tC were lowered because of lagging 
shipments and little trade activity. 



iMJOR IMPORTING COUNTRiES 

T'^e forecast for 1986/87 wheat iniports remains unchanged as lower' uemancl in 
several iJortn African countries was offset by an increase in Soviet import 
demand. Dry weather in European USSR has contributed to a J-mi ] 1 ion-ton 
reduction in the crop forecast for the Soviet Union wnich is expecteo zo 
reduce wheat consumption and increase imported wheat aemand to 17 million 
tons, up one million tons from last month. Xne 198o/87 wneat Import forecast 
for Morocco was lov/erea ^00,000 tuns to 1.4 million tons to reflect a forecast 
record wheat crop. In Nigeria , tne government lias responded to a nard 
cur ency shortage by reducing wheat import licenses for calendar 19ot. Botii 
the 1986/86 and 1986/87 Nigerian wheat import forecasts were lowered to 1.3 
millio.i tons, down more than 20 percent from 1984/85. In the world outside of 
the United States, China, and the Soviet Union, lower produciton will be 
covered by larger imports or the use of stocks so that consumption is not 
expected to decline. In fact, for tjiis part of the world utilizaiton is 
expected to increase almost 10 million tons, up J percent from l985/8b. 

Forecast 1985/86 world wheat trade is down nearly 2 million tons from last 
month because of sharply lagging imports by a number of countries. The 
Brazil i an 1985/36 wneat import forecast was lowered to 2.5 million tons, tiie 
lowest level in 3 years. Reduced demanc and a particularly slow pace of iate 
season imports may be due to a series of good harvests and/or current economic 
problems and foreign currency snortages. The aggressive U.S. and EC export 
programs will probably continue to increase <»neat imports in targeteu 
countries. For example, Al gerian wlieat import forecasts for both 1985/8o and 
1986/87 were increased 



k 



MAJOR EXPORTING COUNTRIES 



The forecasts for 1986/87 July-June wlieat exports for Argentina, Australia, 
and Canada remain uncnanged from last montii. Better crop prospects thii> year 
as compared to 1986/86 and smaller carry- in stocks snoula mean that icotal 
1986/87 exportable wheat supplies will just about equal Iy85/c5b supplies. 

Argentine wneat shipments during July-April 198o/86 totaled more than b 
million tons, supporting the current forecast of 6.1 million tons. According 
to Argentine sources the Soviet Union and China have not taken Argentine 
wheat in several months, in 1984/85 this could have meant a loss of about 
800,000 tons of wheat trade. However, because of Argentina's short crop ana 
reduced availabilities this year, the limited buying by tnese countries has 
allowed Argentina to continue exporting co other markets, such as iran, 
Poland, and Brazil. Canadian wheat exports for July-April li^8b/8a exceeded 14 
million tons. The recent two year average for May and June shipments is more 
than 2 tons per month. If 1985/86 May and June snipments approach this level, 
the current export forecast of i7.5 million tons is achievable. The 
Austral ian 1986/86 wheat export forecast of 15.7 million tons remains 
unchanged, commitments are reported to exceed 14 million tons and snipinents in 
the July-March period are estimated at more than 11 million tons. 



EUROPEAN COMMUNITY 

The EC~12 free-market wheat export tender for 1986/86 closed May 30. Total 
wheat and flour export licenses and shipments continue to lag earlier 
expectatiOiis so tiie 1985/86 wheat export forecast was lowereo 500,000 tons to 
15.5 million tons. At this level, EC-12 v^heat exports are nearly 1^ percent 
lower than the record 17.8 million tons of 1984/85 and about 6 percent lower 
than the forecast level of 1986/87. A recovery in EC-12 wheat exports in 
1986/87 is attriDuted to an expected increase in global import demand, 
particularly by the Soviet Union, and the EC's continuing efforts to draw down 
excessively large intervention stocks. 

The EC marketing year has changed from August-July to July-June which results 
in an 11 month marketing year for 1986/86. The 11 month year is not evident 
in tiie international mar^keting years (October-September or July-June), but has 
been changed in the local EC marketing years located in the EC grain supply 
and disappearance table. 



U.S. WHEAT TRADE PROSPECTS 

The 1986/67 wheat export forecast for the United States remains unchanged at 
30.5 million tons, aoout 22 percent higher tnan the current wheat export 
level, but still far short of recent years when U.S. wheat exports have 
reached nearly 50 million tons. On the other hand, 1986/86 export prospects 
continue to decline because of tiie particularly slow pace of shipments, 
limited sales activity, ana temporarily strong domestic prices resulting from 
free-market sliortages. The 1986/86 U.S. wheat export forecast was lowered one 
million tons to 25 million tons to reflect these declining prospects. 



5 



**COARSE GRAINS** 



The outlook for 1^^86/87 October-September world coarse yi^ain trade at 90 
milliOii tons represents a 7 percent recovery from 1985/86 and virtual ly no 
change from last month's estimate. Weatiier aevelopments in tiie EC nave 
resulted in. a 3 million ton decline, about 3 percent, in estimdted 1986 coarse 
grain production, lower EC exports are not expectea oecause of large carryover 
stocks. Dry weatiier has also reduced crop prospects for the Soviet UnioiJ 
which is expected to increase demand for coarse grain imports. Despite lower 
prociuction, 198b/87 world coarse graiii supplies are forecast dt record levels, 
nearly 5 percent larger than in 1985/86. Ending stocks continue to increase 
as production outpaces consumption, and are currently expected to reacn a 
record 188 million tons by the end of 198b/<i7, 76 percent of wnich v/ould be 
held by the United States. 

The 1985/86 coarse grain trade forecast declined snarply this montn, to 
approximately 84 million tons, prompted by reouced import aemand for U.S. 
coarse grains. Credit and foreign exchange limitations, and lower petroleum 
revenues are affecting coarse grain imports oy Latin American couritrieSj 
including Mexico, Brazil, and Venezuela. On the other isand, a larger uninese 
coarse grain export estimate will more than offset smaller exportaole supplies 
of South African corn. 

iWOR IMPORTING COUMTRIES 

The only significant change in forecast 1986/87 world coarse grai.i import 
demand is a million ton increase in Soviet imports to reflect lov^er barley 
crop prospects. 

Sharply lower 1985/86 corn and sorgiium import forecasts for several Latin 
American countries account for nearly two- thirds of the decline in world 
coarse grain trade, in Brazil import demand was expected to increase because 
of the weather- damaged 1985 corn crop. However, corn imports currently total 
less than 1.4 million tons and the sluggisii pace could be due to foreign 
exchange limitations and improved 1986 crop prospects. Brazilian 1985/8o 
coarse grain imports are forecast at 2.2 million tv^ns, down approximately 
600,000 tons from last month. Mexican corn and sorgnum purchases seem to be 
limited by financial problems and a shortage of nard currency. The Mexican 
1986/8b corn import forecast at ^.3 million tons is aown sligntly from last 
month, while the sorgiium import forecast was cut more than 40 percent to only 
800,000 tons. Shipments of U.S. sorghum to Venezuela lag expectations and 
there have been no reported corn impoi^ts from the United States or Argentiiia. 
Tlie 1985/85 corn and sorghum import forecasts for Venezuela were eacn cut 
about 300,000 tons. Venezuela's 1985/86 coarse grain imports are now forecast 
at 700,000 tons, down more than 50 percent from 1984/85. 

EUROPEAN COMMUNITY 

The EC-12 corn import forecast for 1985/86 v/as lowered 400,000 tons to 5.6 
million tons, 40 percent less than in 1984/85, to reflect continued sluggish 
demand for third-country corii, particularly for Spain and Portugal. The 
continuing decline in EC-12 corn imports nas resulted from increased use of EC 
corn, wheat, and barley by compounders and the furtiier adaptation of :>tarch 
technology to wheat use. 



6 



MAJOR EXPORTING COUNTRIES 



The 1y85/36 and : 986/87 coarse grain export forecasts for Australia, 
Argentina, and Canada are unchanged from a month ago. Argentine sales and 
shipments of corn and sorghum, especially to the Soviet Union, are well oehind 
schedule, but an end-of-season picKup is expected. Snipping rates for 
Austral ian 1985/8*5 barley are on schedule as are Canadian c oarse grain exports. 

The 1985/86 October-September coarse grain export forecast for China rose 
600,000 to. IS to 5 million tons as sales and shipments continue at an 
unexpectedly aggressive pace, particularly to Japan and the Soviet Union whicn 
may account for about 50 percent of total Chinese exports. The crop estimate 
for 1985 South African corn declined to 8 million tons this month. Lower 
exportable supplies are expected to limit October-September 1985/86 expor^ts to 
approximately a million tons with major destinations prooably being Japan and 
Koi^ea. 



U.S. TRADE PROSPECTS 

The U.S. 1985/86 coarse grain export forecast was cut more than 3 million tons 
to 39 million tons as shipments continue to lag behind expectations. The mosc 
noticaijle decline in US. exports has oeen to tne group of Latin American 
countries which include Venezuela, Mexico, and Brazil. The 1985/86 corn 
export forecast was lowered nearly z million tons to 34 million tons while the 
sorghum forecast was cut 1 million tons to 4.5 million tons. The 198o/87 U.S. 
coarse grain export forecast is unchanged at 49 million tons, but is expected 
to include at least part of the deferred imports from ly85/bo. 



★★RICE** 



The estimate for v/orld rice trade in calendur 1986 was increased again this 
month, and is now over 11.8 million tons. This is the highest world trade 
estimate since 1984 and reflects lioeralizea import restrictions and greater 
demand in Brazil and Peru. Though the trade picture continues to urighten 
somewnat, the world stock and production outlook continues to dampen price 
prospects. World stocks are now estimated at record levels of 24 million tons. 

The estimate for world rice production in 1985/86 was increased slighicly this 
month, due primarily to an increase in the Chinese forecast. Conditions 
appear to be favorable for rice throughout most of Asia and rains nave 
benefitted planting preparations in India and Bangledesh. Rains have dl lowed 
rice planting in the north and central parts of Thailand to progress. 



MAJOR IMPORTING COUNTRIES 

The import estimate for Peru was increased slightly because anotner poor crop 
is expected to cause additional buying and imports in the early fall. 



T 



RICE (cont) 



MAJOR EXPORTING. COUNTRIES 

The export estimate for Taiwan was increased to 300,000 tons for calendar 
1986, reflecting strong first quarter exports. The export estimate for 
Uruguay was lowered to 2^0,000 tons for calendar 1986, current prices appear 
rel dtively uncompetitive. 



U.S. TRADE PROSPECTS 

Tlie U.S. export estimate for the marketing year 1986/86 remains unchanged at 
1.8 million tons. Total U.S. commitments at the end of May were l.G million 
tons. Calendar 1986 exports are expected to reach 2.2 million tons, wnlle the 
marketing year 1986/87 forecast is 2.4 million tons. 



8 



TRENDS IN MAJOR GRAIN IMPORT MARKETS 1/ 



EUROPEAN COMMUNITY-12 2/ 



MMT 




180 




170 




160 




150 




140 




130 




120 




110 




100 




90 




4T 




30 




20 




10 




0 


L 




Product Ion 



- Utilization 



Ending Stocks 




A 



^A^ 



A* 



1/ Grain includes wheat and coarse grains. 

2/ Belgium-Luxembourg, Denmark, France, West Germany, Greece, Ireland, Italy, 
Netherlands, Portugal, Spain, United Kingdom. 



9 



TRENDS IN MAJOR GRAIN IMPORT MARKEKS 1/ 



USSR, CHINA AND EASTERN EUROPE 2/ 




— - Imports 

Ending Stocks 



& a"^ ^ A* <^ <b^ « 



<S> 



1/ Grain includes wheat and coarse grains. 

2/ Eastern Europe includes Albania, Bulgaria, Czechoslovakia, East Germany, 
Hungary, Poland, Romania, Yugoslavia. 



10 



TRENDS IN MAJOR GRAIN IMPORT MARKETS 1/ 



ALL OTHER MARKETS 2/ 



MMT 




320 




300 




280 




260 




240 




220 




200 




180 




160 




140 




100 




80 


- 


60 




40 




20 




0 





UTILIZATION 




PRODUCTION 




IMPORTS 



ENDING STOCKS 



J I L 



J L 



J L 



a'^ A^ A^ A°> 

& ^ <^ A** A*^ A* <b^ qr <^ 



1/ Grain includes wheat and coarse grains. 

2/ World less Far East, North Africa, USSR, China, Eastern Europe, 

European Communi ty-12 , United States, Canada, Australia, Argentina, Thailand 
and South Africa. 



11 



TRENDS IN MAJOR GRAIN IMPORT MARKETS 1/ 
SUPPORTING DATA FOR THE COVER STORY 







FAR EAST /2 






— NORTH 


AFRICA 3/ 




PRO- 


ENDING 


UTILI- 


TRADE YEAR 


PRO- 


ENDING 


UTILI- 


TRADE YEAR 


YEAR 


DUCTION 


STOCKS 


ZATION 


IMPORTS 


DUCTION 


STOCKS 


ZATION 


IMPORTS 






' — MMT 






MMT 


















1966/67 


9.6 


2.8 


22.9 


13.9 


8.7 


0.3 


13.7 


5.2 


1967/68 


8.3 


3.2 


23.2 


15.7 


9.8 


0.5 


15.0 


5.5 


1968/69 


9.2 


3.5 


25.8 


17.2 


14.4 


1.2 


17.0 


3.5 


1969/70 


8.0 


4.1 


26.6 


19.5 


10.4 


0.5 


14.3 


3.7 


1970/71 


7.9 


4.3 


28.1 


21.2 


11.2 


0.2 


16. 3 


5.0 


1971/72 


7.6 


3.9 


29.7 


22.2 


12.1 


0.2 


17.0 


4.9 


1972/73 


6.5 


4.7 


30.8 


25.6 


13.3 


0.9 


17.7 


5.1 


1973/74 


8.1 


5.4 


34.1 


26.8 


11.1 


*^ A 

2.4 


16.7 


7.1 


1974/75 


8.1 


5.5 


33.3 


25.9 


13.0 


3.9 


20.8 


8.0 


1975/76 


8.3 


6.0 


35.3 


27.7 


13.9 


5.3 


20.7 


8.2 


1976/77 


7.0 


6.5 


37.9 


31.7 


15.6 


6.0 


22.9 


8.1 


1977/78 


8.1 


7.1 


41.0 


33.6 


10.2 


4.4 


22.1 


10.4 


1978/79 


9.6 


7.4 


45.7 


36.4 


13.3 


4.6 


24.5 


10.9 


1979/80 


9.0 


6.5 


46.5 


36.6 


12.4 


3.2 


24.9 


12.0 


1980/81 


9.3 


6.7 


47.3 


38.0 


14.0 


3.3 


26.8 


13.1 


1981/82 


10.0 


5.9 


49.1 


38.2 


11.6 


4.1 


25.4 


14.3 


1982/83 


8.6 


6.1 


49.4 


41.3 


14.0 


3.5 


27.5 


13.1 


1983/84 


10.8 


6.8 


52.7 


43.0 


12.2 


3.2 


27.9 


16.6 


1984/85 


11.2 


6.7 


54.5 


43.6 


14.2 


2.8 


31.7 


16.9 


1985/86 


10.4 


6.1 


54.4 


43.2 


16.3 


2.4 


32.9 


16.3 


1986/87 


11.3 


5.9 


56.6 


45.5 


17.4 


3.0 


34.2 


18.0 




EUROPEAN COMMUNITY 


-12 /4 


-USSR, CHINA, EASTERN 


EUROPE /5- 




PRO- 


ENDING 


UTILI- 


TRADE YEAR 


PRO- 


ENDING 


UTILI- 


TRADE YEAR 


YEAR 


DUCTION 


STOCKS 


ZATION 


IMPORTS 


DUCTION 


STOCKS 


ZATION 


IMPORTS 






MMT 






MMT 


















1966/67 


91.9 


15.0 


117.6 


30.4 


313.6 


42.2 


293.4 


15.7 


1967/68 


105.7 


18.7 


123.0 


27.5 


303.6 


40.2 


308.7 


13.4 


1968/69 


107.0 


17.2 


122.2 


25.7 


318.6 


43.7 


315.3 


11.2 


1969/70 


107.2 


12.8 


127.4 


24.1 


■ 314.0 


24.8 


335.1 


14.0 


1970/71 


102.6 


12.3 


128.7 


31.8 


337.2 


15.1 


352.8 


14.8 


1971/72 


118.9 


14.9 


134.2 


24.9 


350.4 


17.8 


359.7 


21.6 


1972/73 


119.8 


13.4 


137.7 


26.3 


341.4 


19.6 


372.1 


38.3 


1973/74 


121.8 


15.8 


139.2 


30.0 


397.0 


33.7 


401.1 


27.7 


1974/75 


126.3 


22.9 


137.8 


27.0 


382.4 


24.6 


404.7 


22.2 


1975/76 


116.2 


18.5 


137.7 


27.4 


334.4 


9.8 


384.9 


40.5 


1976/77 


108.5 


17.3 


138.2 


35.5 


427.3 


22.6 


435.3 


28.2 


1977/78 


121.1 


15.9 


142.5 


28.7 


390.4 


8.6 


438.8 


40.3 


1978/79 


137.2 


21.2 


146.3 


26.1 


455.4 


27.2 


473.2 


41.2 


1979/80 


132.3 


18.3 


147.1 


27.3 


408.2 


14.2 


475.3 


54.3 


1980/81 


144.2 


20.9 


144.5 


25.2 


415.0 


11.8 


479.2 


70.2 


1981/82 


134.2 


18.0 


142.8 


24.1 


387.5 


8.0 


459.4 


66.9 


1982/83 


145.3 


21.6 


140.9 


18.6 


429.5 


8.1 


478.9 


56.1 


1983/84 


137.7 


14.0 


141.9 


17.1 


454.5 


10.4 


495.5 


50.2 


1984/85 


172.5 


27.1 


145.2 


12.5 


457.1 


18.4 


504.7 


68.9 


1985/86 


159.2 


26.5 


146.1 


8.7 


452.4 


16.4 


486.6 


46.3 


1986/87 


158.9 


29.8 


143.5 


7.7 


462.2 


16.7 


496.5 


46.1 



FOOTNOTES ON PAGE 13. 



12 



TRENDS IN MAJOR GRAIN IMPORT MARKETS 1/ 
SUPPORTING DATA FOR THE COVER STORY 



•ALL OTHER MARKETS /6 



PRO- ENDING UTILI- TRADE YEAR PRO- ENDING UTILI- TRADE YEAR 

YEAR DUCTION STOCKS ZATION IMPORTS YEAR DUCTION STOCKS ZATION IMPORTS 



•MMT MMT- 



1966/67 


138.5 


21.0 


163.5 


35.3 


1977/78 


201. 


9 


35. 


2 


245.6 


50. 


5 


1967/68 


152.6 


23.4 


173.3 


33.3 


1978/79 


212. 


0 


29. 


0 


251.0 


54. 


4 


1968/69 


159.7 


26.6 


178.7 


32.3 


1979/80 


217. 


5 


30. 


9 


261.2 


63. 


9 


1969/70 


164.8 


27.4 


189.6 


35.0 


1980/81 


225. 


2 


34. 


4 


265.4 


64. 


3 


1970/71 


173.2 


26.8 


198.1 


36.2 


1981/82 


238. 


4 


37. 


2 


279.4 


66. 


2 


1971/72 


176.4 


30.0 


195.7 


38.7 


1982/83 


227. 


8 


33. 


7 


277.2 


68. 


9 


1972/73 


171.6 


27.3 


200.5 


41.6 


1983/84 


240. 


0 


39. 


7 


288.6 


76. 


9 


1973/74 


180.8 


24.9 


223.6 


55.6 


1984/85 


245. 


2 


44. 


8 


295.0 


81. 


1 


1974/75 


183.3 


20.9 


219.6 


56.0 


1985/86 


252. 


3 


44. 


6 


300.7 


75. 


3 


1975/76 


200.0 


28.1 


225.6 


50.5 


1986/87 


261. 


5 


45. 


4 


312.8 


82. 


0 


1976/77 


212.4 


39.1 


232.9 


46.6 



















1/ Grain includes wheat and coarse grains. Wheat and coarse 

grain imports are on a July/June basis through 1975/76. From 
1976/77 on, the trade year for coarse grains is 
October/September . 

2/ Japan, South Korea, Taiwan, Hong Kong, Singapore, Indonesia, 
Malaysia, Philippines. 

3/ Egypt, Algeria, Tunisia, Morocco, Libya. 

4/ Belgium-Luxembourg, Denmark, France, West Germany, Greece, 

Ireland, Italy, Netherlands, Portugal, Spain, United Kingdom. 

5/ Eastern Europe includes Albania, Bulgaria, Czechoslovakia, 
East Germany, Hungary, Poland, Romania, Yugoslavia. 

6/ World less Far East, North Africa, USSR, China, Eastern 
Europe, European Communi ty-12 , United States, Canada, 
Australia, Argentina, Thailand and South Africa. 



13 



TOTAL WHEAT AND COARSE GRAINS 
TRADE YEARS * 1981/82 - 1985/86 
IN MILLIONS OF METRIC TONS) 





1982/83 


1983/84 


1984/85 


1985/86 


1986/87 


1986/87 












HAY 12 


JUNll 


EXPORTS I) 














SELECTED EXPORTERS 


61.3 


67.2 


67.7 


66.3 


63.1 


63.1 


WEST EUROPE 


22.7 


22.3 


29.6 


25.9 


25.9 


25.9 


USSR 


0.5 


0.5 


1.0 


1.0 


1.0 


1.0 


OTHERS 


10.1 


9.1 


15.9 


12.7 


12.4 


12.2 


TOTAL NON-US 


94.6 


99.2 


114.4 


106.0 


102.4 


102.2 


U.S. 3) 


93.9 


94.7 


93.6 


64.1 


79.5 


79.5 


WORLD TOTAL 


138.6 


193.8 


208.0 


170.1 


181.9 


181.7 


IMPORTS 














WEST EUROPE 


20.9 


19.2 


14.5 


10.3 


9.8 


9.8 


USSR 


31.2 


32.4 


55.4 


30.0 


30.0 


32.0 


JAPAN 


24.5 


26.6 


26.3 


26.4 


27.6 


27 6 


EAST EUROPE 


9.4 


6.0 


6.0 


9.8 


6.6 


6.6 


CHINA 


1 Jt J 


9.8 


7.5 


6.5 


7.5 


7.5 


OTHERS 


87.1 


97.8 


98.2 


87.1 


100.4 


98.2 


WORLD TOTAL 


188.6 


193.8 


208.0 


170.1 


181.9 


181.7 


PRODUCTION 4) 5) 














SELECTED EXPORTERS 


107.0 


118.4 


115.6 


113.6 


114.2 


114.0 


WEST EUROPE 


161.9 


154.1 


191.1 


176.5 


180.4 


176.2 


USSR 6) 


172.0 


178.0 


159.0 


177.0 


173.0 


173.0 


EAST EUROPE 


106.7 


102.5 


114.9 


106.2 


107.6 


107.5 


CHINA 


150.6 


174.0 


183.3 


169.2 


182.8 


181.8 


OTHERS 


233.8 


246.5 


252.0 


261.7 


271.8 


273.0 


TOTAL NON-US 


932.3 


973.5 


1015.8 


1004.3 


1034.8 


1025.3 


U.S. 


326.0 


203.0 


308.3 


340.3 


294.6 


294.0 


WORLD TOTAL 


1258.2 


1176.5 


1324.1 


1344.6 


1329.4 


1319.2 


UTILIZATION 4) 7) 














WEST EUROPE 


157.4 


158.4 


161.9 


162.3 


163.1 


160.1 


USSR 6) 


204.0 


206.5 


207.0 


204.0 


206.0 


203.0 


CHINA 


166.4 


183.4 


185.1 


170.6 


186.1 


185.1 


OTHERS 


45 7. 9 


513.7 


530.1 


534.2 


551.9 


551.9 


TOTAL NON-US 


1027.7 


1067, 0 


1G34.1 


1071.1 


1107.0 


1100.0 


U.S. 


191.6 


181.0 


195.5 


196.0 


201.6 


201.6 


WORLD TOTAL 


1219.3 


1246.0 


1279.7 


1267. 1 


1306.6 


1301.5 


END STOCf.S 4j 8) 














TOTAL FOREIGN 9) 


96.2 


97.4 


123.5 


116.5 


126.7 


122.0 


USSR: STK3 CHG 


-1.0 


3.0 


6.0 


0.0 


0.0 


0.0 


U.S. 


148.6 


76.0 


94.4 


176.9 


186.3 


191.1 


WORLD TOTAL 


244.8 


173.4 


217.9 


295.4 


313.0 


313.1 



t: COMBINATION OF JULY/JUNE TRADE YEARS FOR WHEAT AND OCTOBER/SEPTEMBER 
TRADE YEARS FOR COARSE GRAINS. 

NOTE: FOOTNOTES 1 THROUGH 9 APPEAR ON LAST PAGE OF CIRCULAR. 

SOURCE: PREPARED OR ESTIMATED ON THE BASIS OF OFFICIAL STATISTICS OF FOREIGN 
GG^ERNHENTS. other foreign source materials, reports of U.S. AGRICULTURAL ATTACHES AND 
FOREIGN SERVICE OFFICERS, RESULTS OF OFFICE RESEARCH, AND RELATED INFORMATION. 

CGK.MODIIi FRCGRAMS, FAS, USDA 



11+ 



WORLD WHEAT AND WHEAT FLOUR SID TABLE 

JULY/JUNE YEARS 1982/83 - 1986/87 
(IN niLLIONS OF METRIC TONS) 





1982/83 


1983/84 


1984/35 


1985/86 


1986/87 


1986/87 












HAY 12 


JUNll 


EXPORTS 1) 














CANADA 


21.4 


21.8 


19.4 


17.5 


19.0 


19.0 


AUSTRALIA 


8.1 


10.6 


15.3 


15.7 


14.5 


14.5 


ARGENTINA 


7.5 


9.7 


8.0 


6.1 


4.6 


4.6 


SUBTOTAL 


37.0 


42.0 


42.7 


39.3 


38. 1 


38.1 


EC-12 


16.3 


15.5 


17.8 


15.5 


16.5 


16.5 


USSR 


0.5 


0.5 


1.0 


1.0 


1.0 


1.0 


OTHERS 


5.0 


5.1 


6.5 


5. 1 


5.5 


5.3 


TOTAL NON-US 


58.8 


63.1 


68.0 


60.9 


61.2 


61.0 


U.S. 3) 


39.9 


38.9 


38.1 


25.0 


30.5 


30.5 


WORLD TOTAL 


98.7 


102.0 


106.1 


85.9 


91.7 


91.5 


IRPORTS 














EC-12 


4.6 


4.5 


3.0 


2.9 


2.6 


2.6 


USSR 


20.2 


20.5 


28. 1 


16.0 


16.0 


17.0 


JAPAN 


5.8 


5.9 


5.6 


5.4 


5.5 


5.5 


EASTERN EUROPE 


4.5 


3.8 


2.6 


3.7 


3.5 


3.5 


CHINA 


13.0 


9.6 


7.4 


6.0 


7.0 


7.0 


OTHERS 


50.6 


57.7 


59.4 


52.0 


57.1 


55.9 


WORLD TOTAL 


98.7 


102.0 


106.1 


85.9 


91.7 


91.5 


PRODUCTION 5) 














CANADA 


26.7 


26.5 


21.2 


23.9 


26.0 


26.0 


AUSTRALIA 


8.9 


22.0 


18.7 


16.1 


15.3 


15.3 


ARbENTINA 


15.0 


12.8 


13.2 


8.5 


9.6 


9.6 


EC- 12 


64.7 


63.8 


82.8 


71.5 


77.1 


75.4 


USSR 6) 


86.0 


79.0 


73.0 


83.0 


80.0 


77.0 


EASTERN EUROPE 


34.7 


35.4 


42.0 


37.5 


38.9 


38.6 


CHINA 


68.4 


81.4 


87.8 


85.3 


88.5 


87.5 


INDIA 


37.5 


42.8 


45.5 


44.2 


47.0 


47.0 


OTHERS 


62.0 


61.4 


60.8 


66.2 


68.8 


in ■ 

69.3 


TOTAL NON-US 


403.9 


425.1 


445.0 


436.1 


451.1 


445.8 


U.S. 


75.3 


65.9 


70.6 


66.0 


59.3 


58.6 


WORLD TOTAL 


479.1 


490.9 


515.6 


502.1 


510.4 


504.4 


UTILIZATION 7) 














U.S. 


24.7 


30.2 


31.4 


29.5 


31.8 


31.8 


USSR 6) 


105.7 


97.0 


96.1 


98.0 


95.0 


93.0 


CHINA 


81.4 


91.0 


95.2 


91.3 


95.5 


94.5 


OTHERS 


256.1 


268.1 


277.5 


275.4 


283.9 


284.0 


TOTAL NON-U. S. 


443.2 


456.1 


468.8 


464.7 


474.4 




471.5 


WORLD TOTAL 


467.9 


486.4 


500.2 


494.3 


506.3 


503.4 


END STOCKS 8) 














TOTAL FOREIGN 9) 


55.0 


62.8 


.77.6 


73.4 


81.0 


77.5 


USSR: STKS CH6 


0.0 


2.0 


4.0 


0.0 


0.0 


0.0 


U.S. 


41.2 


38.1 


38.8 


50.9 


48.8 


47.8 


WORLD TOTAL 


96.3 


100.9 


116.4 


124.3 


129.7 


125.3 



NOTE: FOOTNOTES 1 THROUGH 9 APPEAR ON LAST PAGE OF CIRCULAR. 

SOURCE: PREPARED OR ESTIMATED ON THE BASIS OF OFFICIAL STATISTICS OF FOR 
OTHER FOREIGN SOURCE MATERIALS, REPORTS OF U.S. AGRICULTURAL ATTACHES AN 
RESULTS OF OFFICE RESEARCH, AND RELATED INFORMATION. 

COMMODITY PROGRAMS, FAS, USDA 



15 



WORLD COARSE 6RAINS SfeD TABLE 
OCTOBER/SEPTEMBER YEARS 1982/83 - 1986/87 
(IN HILLIONS OF METRIC TONS) 





l9R?/fl3 


1983/84 


1984/8'^ 




i 7 Uv / Q / 


i 7 OO / O / 












MAY 12 


JUNll 


LAr Ul\ I 0 














CANADA 


7.1 


5.5 


3.3 


4.4 


5.0 


5.0 


AUSTRALIA 


I.O 


c c 

J. J 


7.3 


5.8 


4.0 


4.0 


ARGENTINA 


11.6 


10.9 


10.6 


11.9 


10.4 


10.4 


3UU I n Mr i\ i IrfM 




0 1 


0,7 


1 1 

ill 


? 0 


? ft 


THAILAND 


2.3 


3.3 


3.4 


3.8 


3.6 


3.6 


SUBTOTAL 


24.3 


25.2 


25.2 


27.0 


25.0 


25.0 


WEST EUROPE 


5.2 


5.4 


10.5 


9.2 


8.0 


8.0 


uninn 


V . 1 


0 s 


J • 1 


•i (■) 


4 7 


4 T 


OTHERS 


6.2 


5.0 


5.0 


3.8 


4.0 


4.0 


TOTAL NON-U. S. 


35.9 


36.1 


46.4 


45.0 


41.2 


41.2 


U.S. 3) 


54.0 


55.8 


55.5 


39.1 


49.0 


49.0 


WORLD TOTAL 


89.9 


91.9 


101.9 


84.1 


90.2 


90,2 


IflPORTS 














BF^iT FIIRdPF 


i -J ■ W 


13 9 


10.9 


6.7 


6.4 


6 4 


USSR 


11.0 


11.9 


27.3 


14.0 


14.0 


15.0 


JAPAN 


18.7 


20.7 


20.7 


21.0 


22.1 


22,1 


EASTERN EUROPE 


4.9 


4.2 


3.4 


6,2 


3.2 


3.2 


CHINA 


2.5 


0.2 


0.1 


0.5 


0.5 


0.5 


OTHERS 


37.1 


40.9 


39.4 


35.8 


44.1 


43.1 


WORLD TOTAL 


89.9 


91.9 


101.9 


84.1 


90.2 


90.2 


PRODUCTION 5) 














CANADA 


26.5 


20.9 


22.0 


24.7 


23.3 


23.3 


AUSTRALIA 


3.9 


9.4 


8.6 


7.8 


6.9 


6,9 


ARGENTINA 

rii>LFL.ii 1 inn 


17.8 


17.4 


18.6 


18.3 


17.7 


17.7 


SOUTH AFRICA 


4.5 


5.1 


8.7 


8.9 


9.9 


9.9 


THAILAND 


3,7 


4.3 


4.7 


5.5 


5.4 


5.2 


WEST EUROPE 


93.6 


86.1 


103.7 


100.9 


99.1 


96.6 




86.0 


99.0 


86.0 


94.0 


98.0 


96.0 


EAST EUROPE 


72.0 


67.1 


72.9 


68.7 


68.7 


68.9 






97 7 


7 J. ^ 


R\ 9 

0 J ■ 7 


94 3 

7 T ■ J 


94 3 

7 ~ • O 


OTHERS 


137.9 


146.5 


150.3 


155.5 


160.3 


160.7 


TOTAL NON-US 


528.4 


548.4 


570.8 


568.1 


583.7 


579.5 


U.S. 


250.7 


137.1 


237.7 


274.3 


235.3 


235.4 


WORLD TOTAL 


779.1 


685.5 


808.5 


842.5 


819.0 


814.8 


UTILIZATION 7) 














U.S. 


166.9 


150.7 


164.2 


166.5 


169.7 


169.7 


USSR 6) 


98.3 


109.5 


110.9 


106.0 


111.0 


110.0 


CHINA 


85.0 


92.4 


89.9 


79.3 


90.6 


90.6 


OTHERS 


401.2 


409.0 


414.5 


421.0 


431.0 


427.9 


TOTfil NON-U S 

1 u 1 nu nun Uaij* 


584.5 


610.9 


615.3 


606.4 


632.6 


628.4 


WORLD TOTAL 


751.4 


761.6 


779.5 
============= 


772.8 


802.3 


798.2 


END STOCKS 8) 














TOTAL FOREIGN 


41.1 


34.6 


45.9 


45.1 


45.7 


44.5 


USSR: STKS CHG 


-1.0 


1.0 


2.0 


0.0 


0.0 


0.0 


U.S. 


107.4 


37.9 


55.6 


126.1 


137.5 


143.3 


WORLD TOTAL 


148.5 


72.5 


101.5 


171.1 


183.2 


187.8 


NOTE: FOOTNOTES 1 


, THROUGH 9 APPEAR ON LAST 


PAGE OF CIRCULAR. 











SOURCE: PREPARED OR ESTIMATED ON THE BASIS OF OFFICIAL STATISTICS OF FOREIGN GOVERNMENTS, OTHER 
FOREIGN SOURCE MATERIALS, REPORTS OF U.S. AGRICULTURAL ATTACHES AND FOREIGN SERVICE OFFICERS, 



16 



NORLD RICE S!iD TABLE 
TRftDE, PRODUCTION, UTILIZATION AND STOCKS 1) 
(IN HILLIONS OF METRIC TONS) 





CAL YR 


CAL VR 


CAL VR 


CAL YR 


CAL 1986 


CAL19B6 




1982 


1983 


1984 


1985 


MAY12 


JUNll 


EXPORTS 21 














BURHA 


0.7 


O.B 


0.7 


0.5 


0.6 


0.6 


CHINA 


0.5 


0.6 


1.2 


1.0 


0.9 


0.9 


JAPAN 


0.3 


0.3 


0.1 


0.0 


0.0 


0.0 


PAKISTAN 


0.8 


1.3 


1.1 


1.0 


0.9 


0.9 


THAILAND 


Z.b 


3.7 


4.5 


4.0 


3.9 


3.9 


OTHERS 


3.4 


2.9 


2.9 


3.2 


3.2 


3.3 


TOTAL NON-U. S. 


9.3 


9.6 


10.4 


9.6 


9.5 


9.6 


U.S. 


2.5 


2.3 


2.1 


1.9 


2.2 


2.2 


WORLD TOTAL 


11. a 


11.9 


12.6 


11.5 


11.7 


11.8 


IMPORTS 2i 














EC-12 


1.3 


1.0 


1.3 


1.2 


1.4 


1.4 


INDONESIA 


0.3 


1.2 


0.4 


.0 


.0 


.0 


IRAN 


O.b 


0.7 


0.7 


0.6 


0.8 


0.8 


IRAQ 


0.4 


0.5 


0.5 


0.5 


0.6 


0.6 


KOREA, REP. 


0.2 


0.2 


.0 


0.0 


0.0 


0.0 


NIGERIA 


0.7 


0.7 


0.5 


0.4 


0.1 


O.t 


SAUDI ARABIA 


0.5 


0.5 


0.5 


0.5 


0.5 


0.5 


OTHERS 


7.8 


7.1 


8.7 


8.2 


8.4 


8.6 


NORLD TOTAL 


11.8 


11.9 


12.6 


11.5 


11.7 


11.8 


PRODUCTION 3) 


1981/82 


1982/83 


1983/84 


1984/85 


1985/86 


1985/86 


ARGENTINA 


0.4 


0.3 


0.5 


0.4 


0.4 


0.4 


AUSTRALIA 


0.9 


0.5 


0.6 


0.9 


0.7 


0.7 


BANGLADESH 


20.5 


21.3 


21.8 


21.9 


23.2 


22.8 


BRAZIL 


9.2 


7.8 


9.0 


9.0 


9.0 


9.0 


BURMA 


14.2 


14.4 


14.4 


14.8 


14.9 


14.9 


CHINA 


144.0 


161.2 


168.9 


178.3 


167.0 


168.5 


EC-12 


1.6 


1.6 


1.5 


1.7 


1.9 


1.9 


INDIA 


80.0 


70.7 


90.2 


68.0 


91.5 


91.5 


INDONESIA 


32.8 


33.6 


35.3 


38.1 


39.0 


39.0 


JAPAN 


12.8 


12.8 


13.0 


14.8 


14.6 


14.6 


KOREA, REP. 


7.1 


-1 -? 


7.6 


8.0 


8.3 


7.9 


PAKISTAN 


5.2 


5.2 


5.0 


5.0 


4.4 


4.4 


THAILAND 


17.8 


16.9 


19.5 


18.7 


19,3 


19.3 


OTHERS 


58.2 


58.9 


61.0 


62.1 


63.0 


63.0 


TOTAL NON-US 


404.4 


412.5 


448.2 


461.7 


457.1 


457.7 


U.S. 


8.3 


7.0 


4.5 


6.3 


6.2 


6.2 


WORLD TOTAL 


412.7 


419.5 


452.7 


468.0 


463.3 


463.9 


UTILIZATION 7) 














BANGLADESH 


14.1 


14.6 


14.9 


14.9 


15.8 


15.4 


CHINA 


100.5 


112.4 


117.1 


123.9 


116.1 


117.1 


INDIA 


54.1 


48.5 


58.2 


57.0 


60.3 


60.3 


INDONESIA 


22.3 


23.7 


25.3 


25.2 


26.2 


26.2 


KOREA, REP. 


5.4 


5.3 


5.5 


5.5 


5.6 


5.6 


OTHERS 


82.8 


83.2 


85.2 


85.6 


87.0 


87.1 


TOTAL NON-U. S. 


279.2 


287.6 


306.3 


312.1 


311.0 


311.7 


U.S. 


i. ■ i. 


2.0 


1.8 


1.9 


1.9 


1.9 


WORLD TOTAL 


281.5 


289.6 


308.1 


314.0 


312.9 


313.6 

======'==-==-= 


END STOCKS 4) 




================== 


================== 




======«==«===•== 




BANGLADESH 


0.3 


0.3 


0.1 


0.5 


0.3 


0.3 


INDIA 


5.0 


3.5 


6.0 


7.5 


8.0 


8.0 


INDONESIA 


2.3 


1.8 


1.6 


2.8 


2.7 


2.7 


KOREA, REP. 


1.4 


1.5 


1.3 


1.4 


1.5 


1.5 


THAILAND 


1.4 


0.8 


1.1 


1.3 


1.8 


l.B 


U 1 ntno 


0 

7, 0 


7 7 


7 

J. / 


0 , T 




0.7 


TOTAL FOREIGN 


19.7 


15.0 


15.8 


19.8 


21.1 


21.2 


U.S. 


l.b 


2.3 


1.5 


2.0 


2.8 


2.8 


WORLD TOTAL 


21.3 


17.3 


17.2 


21.9 


23.9 


24.0 

















11 PRODUCTION IS ON ROUGH BASIS; TRADE, UTILIZATION AND STOCKS ARE ON MILLED BASIS. 

2) TRADE DATA ON CALENDAR YEAR BASIS. 

3) THE WORLD RICE HARVEST STRETCHES OVER 6-8 MONTHS. THUS, 1978/79 PRODUCTION REPRESENTS THE CROP HARVESTED IN LATE 1978 
AND EARLY 1979 IN THE NORTHERN HEMISPHERE AND THE CROP HARVESTED IN EARLY 1979 IN THE SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE. 

4) STOCKS DATA ARE BASED ON AN AGGREGATEOF DIFFERENT LOCAL MARKETING YEARS AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSTRUED AS REPRESENTING WORLD 
STOCK LEVELS AT A FIXED POINTIN TIME. STOCKS DATA ARE NOT AVAILABLE FOR ALL COUNTRIES AND EXCLUDE THOSE SUCH AS 

NORTH KOREA AND CHINA. 

SOURCE: PREPARED OR ESTIMATED ON THE BASIS OF OFFICIAL STATISTICS OF FOREIGN GOVERNMENTS, OTHER FOREIGN SOURCE MATERIALS, 
MATERIALS, REPORTS OF U.S. AGRICULTURAL ATTACHES AND FOREIGN SERVICE OFFICERS, RESULTS OF OFFICE RESEARCH, AND RELATED INFORMATION. 



IT 



WORLD CORN S^D TABLE 
OCTOBER/SEPTEMBER YEARS l<?82/83 - 1986/87 
(IN MILLIONS OF METRIC TONS) 





1962/ 83 


1983/34 


1984/85 


1985/36 


1986/87 


1986/87 












HAYll 


JUNU 


Ei(PORTS 














ARGENTINA 


6.5 


5.9 


7.0 


9.5 


8.5 


8.5 


SOUTH AFRICA 


2.3 


0.1 


0.5 


1.0 


2.0 


2.0 


THAILAND 


2.1 


3.0 


3.0 


3.5 


3.3 


3.3 


CHINA 


0.1 


0.4 


5.2 


4.5 


4.0 


4.0 


OTHERS 


5.0 


3.7 


4.2 


3.4 


3.5 


3.3 


TOTAL NON-US 


15.9 


13.1 


20.0 


21.9 


21.3 


21.1 


U.S. 3) 


47.5 


47.4 


46.7 


34.3 


41.3 


41.3 


WORLD TOTAL 


63.4 


60.5 


66.7 


56. 1 


62.6 


62.4 


T u n n n T r 

ihports 














HEXICO 


4.0 


2.5 


1.7 


2.3 


3.5 


3.5 


EC-12 


11.5 


9.8 


9.1 


5.6 


5.1 


5.1 


USSR 


6.5 


9.5 


20.3 


11.3 


10.7 


11.7 


JAPAN 


14.5 


14.5 


14.0 


14.3 


15.6 


15.6 


EAST EUROPE 


3.3 


1.9 


1.4 


2.7 


1.7 


1.7 


CHINA 


2.4 


0. 1 


0.1 


0.3 


0.4 


0.4 


TAIWAN 


3.2 


3.0 


3.0 


3.2 


3.3 


3.3 


KOREA, REP. 


3,9 


3.3 


3.0 


3.4 


3,9 


3.9 


nTiirnr* 

OTHERS 


14. 1 


15.9 


14.0 


13.0 


18.3 


17.1 


WORLD TOTAL 


63.4 


60.5 


66.7 


56.1 


62.6 


62.4 


fiDnnt ITT I nil m \ c \ 














Ti D A 7 7 1 

BRAZIL 


19.5 


21.0 


22.0 


19.0 


22.5 


22.5 


(It A ICO 


7.0 


9.3 


9.9 


10.0 


9.0 


9.0 


ARGENTINA 


9.0 


9.2 


11.5 


13.0 


12.5 


12.5 


SOUTH AFRICA 


4.1 


4.4 


7.8 


8.0 


9.0 


9.0 


THAILAND 


3.5 


4.0 


4.4 


5.2 


5.1 


4.8 


EC-12 


22.6 


21.8 


23.2 


25.4 


25.1 


24.7 


USSR 6) 


13.5 


12.0 


12.5 


13.5 


16.5 


16.5 


EAST EUROPE 


36.5 


33.4 


35.5 


33.5 


34.9 


35.2 


CHINA 


60.3 


68.2 


73.4 


64.0 


72.0 


72.0 


OTHERS 


53.5 


56.8 


62.0 


62.8 


64.9 


64.9 


TOTAL NON-US 


229.3 


240.0 


262. 1 


254.3 


271.5 


271.0 


U.S. 


209.2 


106.0 


194.9 


225.2 


192.4 


192.4 


WORLD TOTAL 


438.5 


346.1 


457.1 


479.5 


463.9 


463.4 


UTILIZATION 7) 














WEST EUROPE 


37.2 


35.0 


32.9 


33.2 


33.1 


32.7 


USSR 6) 


19.8 


20.7 


32.8 


22.9 


26.2 


27.2 


JAPAN 


14.2 


14.5 


14.2 


14.3 


15.6 


15.6 


CHINA 


62.8 


67.9 


68.3 


59.8 


68.4 


68.4 


OTHERS 


146.2 


152.8 


156.7 


156.8 


170.0 


168.5 


TOTAL NON-US 


280.2 


290.9 


304.9 


287.0 


313.3 


312.4 


U.S. 


137.6 


121.7 


131.3 


132.8 


135.9 


135.9 


WORLD TOTAL 


417.8 


412.7 


436.2 


419.8 


449.2 


446.3 


END STOCKS 4) 8) 














TOTAL FOREIGN 9) 


17.3 


14.6 


19.2 


19.5 


19.6 


19.3 


U.S. 


89.5 


25.6 


41.9 


101.2 


113.3 


116.5 


WORLD TOTAL 


106.7 


40.1 


61.0 


120.7 


133.0 


135.9 



»: COMBINATION OF JULY/JUNE TRADE YEARS FOR WHEAT AND OCTOBER/SEPTEMBER 
TRADE YEARS FOR COARSE GRAINS. 

NOTE: FOOTNOTES 1 THROUGH 9 APPEAR ON LAST PAGE OF CIRCULAR. 

SOURCE: PREPARED OR ESTIMATED ON THE BASIS OF OFFICIAL STATISTICS OF FOREIGN 
GOVERNMENTS, OTHER FOREIGN SOURCE MATERIALS, REPORTS OF U.S. AGRICULTURAL ATTACHES AND 
FOREIGN SERVICE OFFICERS, RESULTS OF OFFICE RESEARCH, AND RELATED INFORMATION. 

COMMODITY PROGRAMS, FAS, USDA 



18 



WORLD SORGHUM StD TABLE 
OCTOBER/SEPTEflBER YEARS 1982/83 - 1986/87 
(IN fllLLIONS OF METRIC TONS) 





1982/83 


1983/84 


1984/35 


1985/86 


1986/87 


1986/87 












MAn2 


JUNll 


EXPORTS 














AUSTRALIA 


0.3 


1.4 


1.2 


1.0 


1.0 


1.0 


ARGENTINA 


4.9 


4.8 


3.4 


2.2 


1.7 


1.7 


OTHERS 


1.0 


0.7 


1.2 


1.3 


1.0 


1.0 


TOTAL NON-US 


6.2 


6.8 


5.8 


4,5 


3.7 


3.7 


U.S. 3) 


5.4 


6.2 


7.6 


4.5 


6.6 


6.6 


WORLD TOTAL 


11. & 


13.1 


13.4 


9,0 


10.3 


10.3 


IMPORTS 














USSR 


2.3 


1.9 


1.5 


0.5 


0.6 


0.6 


JAPAN 




4.2 


4.6 


4.7 


4.5 


4.5 


MEXICO 


3.2 


3.3 


2.5 


0.8 


2.0 


2.0 


VENEZUELA 


0.4 


0.2 


0.9 


0.7 


1.0 


1.0 


TAIUAN 


0.6 


0.6 


0.6 


0.6 


0.5 


0.5 


KOREA, REP 


0.2 


0.4 


0.3 


0.3 


0.4 


0.4 


SAUDi ARABIA 


0.6 


0.3 


0.2 


0.2 


0.4 


0,4 


ISRAEL 


0.3 


0.6 


0.5 


0.5 


0.5 


0.5 


OTHERS 


1.2 


1.7 


2.3 


0.7 


0.4 


0,4 


WORLD TOTAL 


11.6 


13,1 


13.4 


9.0 


10.3 


10.3 


PRODUCTION 4) 5) 














AUSTRALIh 


1.0 


1.9 


1.4 


1.3 


1.3 


1,3 


ARGENTINA 


7.6 


7.2 


5.9 


4.5 


4.2 


4.2 


SOUTH AFRICA 


0.2 


0.5 


0.6 


0.5 


0.7 


0.7 


THAILAND 


0.2 


0.3 


0.4 


0.4 


0.4 


0,4 


MEXICO 


2.8 


4.0 


4.1 


3.7 


3.8 


3,6 


INDIA 


10.8 


11.9 


11.3 


10.5 


11.0 


11.0 


CHINA 


7.0 


8.4 


7.7 


6.5 


7.4 


7.4 


NIGERIA 


4.1 


2.7 


3.7 


4.0 


4.3 


4.3 


SUDAN 


1.9 


1.8 


1.2 


4.5 


4.0 


4.0 


OTHERS 


8.3 


7.9 


7.8 


8.8 


8.8 


8.9 


TOTAL NON-US 


43.9 


46.5 


44. 1 


44.7 


45.9 


45.9 


U.S. 


21.2 


12.4 


22.0 


28.3 


21.6 


21.6 


MOULD TOTAL 


65. 1 


58.9 


66. 1 


73.0 


67.4 


67.5 


UTILIZATION 7) 














U.S. 


12.3 


10.7 


14.5 


15.1 


15.1 


15.1 


USSR b) 


2.7 


2.0 


1.5 


0.6 


0.6 


0.6 


CHINA 


6.9 


8.3 


7.2 


6.1 


7.2 


7.2 


MEXICO 


6.1 


6.3 


6.4 


5.8 


5.9 


5.7 


JAPAN 


2.8 


3.7 


4.7 


4.6 


4.5 


4.5 


OTHERS 


31.8 


31.9 


31.8 


32.2 


34.1 


34.3 


WORLD TOTAL 


62.9 


63.0 


66.2 


64.5 


67.4 


67.4 


END STOCKS 4i 8) 














TOTAL FOREIGN 9) 


3.4 


3.9 


3.9 


3.6 


4.0 


3.8 


U.S. 


9.8 


C T 

Ji ^ 


5.2 


13.9 


11.3 


13.8 


WORLD TOTAL 


13.3 


9.2 


9.1 


17.6 


15.3 


17.7 



f. COMBINATION OF JULY/JUNE TRADE YEARS FOR WHEAT AND OCTOBER/SEPTEMBER 
TRADE YEARS FOR COARSE GRAINS. 

IWTE: FOOTNOTES 1 THROUGH 9 APPEAR ON LAST PAGE OF CIRCULAR. 

SOURCE: PREPARED OR ESTIMATED ON THE BASIS OF OFFICIAL STATISTICS OF FOREIGN 
GOVERNMENTS, OTHER FOREIGN SOURCE MATERIALS, REPORTS OF U.S. AGRICULTURAL ATTACHES AND 
FOREIGN SERVICE OFFICERS, RESULTS OF OFFICE RESEARCH, AND RELATED INFORtlATION. 

COMMODITY PROGRAMS, FAS, USD A 



19 



WORLD BfiRLEY SJ.D TABLE 
OCTOBER/SEPTEHBER YEARS 1982/83 - 1986/87 
(IN fllLLIONS OF METRIC TONS) 





1982/83 


1983/84 


1934/85 


1985/86 


1986/87 


1986/87 












nAY12 


JUNll 


EFFORTS 














CANADA 


6.1 


4.2 


2.5 


3.5 


4.0 


4.0 


AUSTRALIA 


0.6 


3.7 


5.6 


4.5 


2.6 


2.6 


EC- 12 


3.9 


3.8 


8.0 


7.0 


6.0 


6.0 


OTHERS 


1.9 


1.5 


2.0 


2.2 


1.9 


1.9 


TOTAL NON-US 


12.5 


13.3 


IB.O 


17.2 


14.5 


14.5 


U.S. 3) 


1.0 


2.1 


1.2 


0.3 


1.0 


1.0 


WORLD TOTAL 


13.4 

==rr===r==r=r== 


15.4 


19.2 


17.5 


15.5 


15.5 


iRrUh 1 S 




:=================: 


================== 


: =========== = =====: 


================,==== 


=======x== 


EC- 12 


1.9 


0.8 


0.1 


0.1 


0.2 


0.2 


Ubbn 


^.l 


0. D 


4. 7 


2.9 


2.5 


2.5 


JAPAN 


1.3 


1.6 


1.7 


1.6 


1.6 


1.6 


EAST EUROPE 


1.5 


2.0 


1.7 


3.4 


1.4 


1.4 


SAUDI ARABIA 


2.5 


5.1 


5.4 


5.5 


5.6 


5.6 


OTHERS 


4.1 


5.4 




5.0 


4.3 


4.3 


WORLD TOTAL 


13.4 


15.4 


19.2 


17.5 


15.5 


15.5 


PRODUCTION 4) 5) 
















14. U 


lU.i 


10. j 




11.5 


11.5 


AUSTRALIA 


1.? 


4.9 


5.6 


4.8 


3.9 


3.9 




4£i. / 


4i. 7 


J'i.j 


50.6 


JO 7 

47.7 


47,9 


USSR 


41.0 


54.0 


42.1 


47.2 


48.3 


46.3 


LHINm 


ij, Y 


b. 9 


5.6 


5.2 


6.2 


6.2 


EAST EUROPE 


17.4 


15.4 


17.1 


16.7 


16.8 


16.7 


OTHERS 


25.5 


23.6 


24.7 


26.5 


26.0 


26.4 


TOTAL NON-US 


153.5 


157.8 


159.9 


163.2 


162.5 


158.9 


U.S. 


11.2 


11.1 


13.0 


12.8 


13.1 


13.1 


PUnLiJ lUiML 


i L M 1 

lo4.7 


168. y 


17i.9 


176. 1 


175.6 


172.0 


UTILIZfiTIUN i) 














WEST EUROPE 


49.5 


49.1 


50.1 


49.5 


50.1 


49.2 


USSR 6) 


44,0 


5-3.8 


44. 5 


49.0 


50.8 


48.8 


EAST EUROPE 


17.8 


16.8 


18.6 


19.2 


18.3 


18.2 


OTHERS 


41.7 


44.8 


41.4 


45.7 


44.4 


44.4 


TOTAL NON-US 


153.0 


164.5 


154.0 


165.4 


163.6 


160.6 


U.S. 


8.9 


9.8 


1 1.' . 3 


10.2 


10. 0. 


t A T 

10.0 


UriR! fi TnT£il 




!74 \ 
i / *t . 0 


Ion t 1 




i / Oi 7 


170 9 


END STOCKS 4) 3) 














TOTAL FOREIGN 9) 


15.0 


10.2 


16.9 


17.2 


17.0 


16.4 


U.S. 


4.7 


4.1 


5.4 


7.6 


9.4 


9.5 


WORLD TOTAL 


19.7 


14.3 


22.3 


24.8 


26.4 


25.9 



»: COMBINATION OF JULY/JUNE TRADE YEARS FOR WHEAT AND OCTOBER/SEPTEMBER 
TRADE YEARS FOR COARSE GRAINS. 

NOTE: FOOTNOTES 1 THROUGH 9 APPEAR ON LAST PAGE OF CIRCULAR. 

SOURCE: PREPARED OR ESTIMATED ON THE BASIS OF OFFICIAL STATISTICS OF FOREIGN 
GOVERNMENTS, OTHER FOREIGN SOURCE MATERIALS, REPORTS OF U.S. AGRICULTURAL ATTACHES AND 
FOREIGN SERVICE OFFICERS, RESULTS OF OFFICE RESEARCH, AND RELATED INFORMATION. 

COMMODITY PROGRAMS, FAS, USDA 



20 



HORLD WHEAT AND FLOUR TRADE 
JULY/JUNE YEARS 1982/83 - 1986/87 
(IN THOUSAND OF METRIC TONS) 





1982/83 


1983/84 


1984/B5 


1985/86 


1986/87 
MAY 12 


19SA/B7 
JtiNll 


EUPORTS 














UNITED STATES 


39939 


38B60 


38092 


25000 


30500 


30500 


PANADA 


21368 


21765 


19400 


17500 


19000 


19000 


ARGENTINA 


7501 


9661 


8034 


6100 


4600 


4600 


AUSTRALIA 


8131 


10586 


15265 


15700 


14500 


14500 


EC-12 


16320 


15450 


17780 


15500 


16500 


16500 


0. H. EUROPE 


1158 


1475 


1316 


1240 


1350 


1350 


EAST EUROPE 


2370 


2255 


4100 


2475 


2600 


2400 


USSR 


500 


500 


1000 


1000 


1000 


1000 


TURKEY 


573 


600 


517 


400 


500 


500 


OTHER COUNTRIES 


856 


818 


598 


1030 


1100 


1100 


WORLD TOTAL 


98716 


101970 


106102 


85945 


91650 


91450 


IMPORTS 














EC-12 


4606 


4546 


2969 


2850 


2600 


2600 


0, W. EUROPE 


645 


818 


630 


780 


807 


800 


EAST EUROPE 


4523 


3757 


2602 


3650 


3450 


3450 


JAPAN 


5795 


5857 


5603 


5400 


5500 


5500 


CHINA 


13000 


9600 


7400 


6000 


7000 


7000 


USSR 


20200 


20500 


28100 


16000 


16000 


17000 


EGYPT 


5350 


6712 


6600 


6700 


7000 


7000 


ALGERIA 


2548 


2840 


2800 


2800 


2700 


3000 


MOROCCO 


1331 


2128 


2450 


2000 


1600 


1400 


NIGERIA 


1500 


1600 


1750 


1300 


1600 


1300 


TUNISIA 


695 


1035 


858 


550 


1250 


1250 


LIBYA 


449 


380 


400 


400 


500 


500 


SUDAN 


448 


450 


600 


665 


700 


700 


MEXICO 


50 


566 


491 


225 


200 


200 


BRAZIL 


3600 


3948 


5400 


2500 


3100 


3100 


CHILE 


1080 


lOOl 


750 


600 


600 


600 


PERU 


1006 


970 


863 


950 


950 


950 


VENEZUELA 


826 


925 


1028 


1000 


1050 


1050 


ECUADOR 


325 


358 


360 


380 


380 


380 


BOLIVIA 


202 


250 


260 


270 


290 


290 


CUBA 


1100 


1300 


1300 


1300 


1350 


1350 


COLOMBIA 


574 


650 


600 


600 


600 


600 


ISRAEL 


625 


500 


700 


600 


625 


625 


JORDAN 


335 


335 


384 


390 


400 


400 


LEBANON 


373 


375 


375 


375 


390 


390 


SAUDI ARABIA 


700 


336 


300 


100 


100 


100 


SYRIA 


430 


935 


1280 


900 


1200 


1200 


YEMEN, AR 


450 


600 


575 


600 


650 


650 


IRAN 


1405 


3700 


3200 


2500 


3000 


3000 


IRAQ 


1800 


3000 


3000 


2500 


3000 


3000 


MALAYSIA 


541 


602 


640 


645 


670 


670 


VIETNAM 


600 


600 


600 


600 


600 


600 


BANGLADESH 


1500 


1876 


1898 


1300 


1600 


1700 


INDONESIA 


1485 


1587 


1375 


1350 


1450 


1450 


PAKISTAN 


580 


366 


1036 


1600 


350 


350 


TURKEY 


50 


350 


1048 


1000 


1000 


1000 


INDIA 


3700 


2500 


150 


100 


100 


100 


SRI LANKA 


474 


648 


648 


595 


600 


625 


KOREA, REP. 


1880 


2351 


3111 


2900 


2700 


2700 


PHILIPPINES 


925 


693 


785 


BOO 


780 


800 


TAIWAN 


737 


655 


780 


750 


800 


BOO 


KOREA, DPR 


200 


500 


550 


550 


550 


550 


SINGAPORE 


200 


200 


200 


200 


200 


200 


SUBTOTAL 


88843 


92900 


96449 


77275 


79992 


80930 


OTHER COUNTRIES 


5102 


6153 


7062 


6708 


7222 


7222 


UNACCOUNTED 1) 


4771 


2917 


2591 


1962 


4436 


3298 


HORLD TOTAL 


98716 


101970 


106102 


85945 


91650 


91450 



II THIS REPRESENTS EXPORTS NOT ACCOUNTED FOR IN REPORTS FROM IMPORTING 

COUNTRIES. SINCE THIS IS RECURRING, IT IS TAKEN INTO ACCOUNT IN THE ASSESSMENT OF 

THE YEAR AHEAD. 

SOURCE: PREPARED Oft ESTIMATED ON THE BASIS OF OFFICIAL STATISTICS OF FOREIGN 
GOVERNMENTS, OTHER FOREIGN SOURCE MATERIALS, REPORTS OF U.S. AGRICULTURAL 
ATTACHES AND FOREIGN SERVICE OFFICERS, RESULTS OF OFFICE RESEARCH, AMD RELATED 
INFORMATION. 

COMMODITY PROGRAMS, FAS, USDA 



21 



WORLD COARSE GRAIN TRADE 
OCTOBER/SEPTEHBER YEARS 1982/83 - 1986/87 
(IN THOUSAND OF METRIC TONS) 





i 70Z/ 00 


1 7D0# U7 


t9R4/flS 


19R5/flA 

1 70J/ 00 


19flA/R7 

1 700/ 0 / 


19ftA/fl7 

1700/ 0/ 












nni \L 


ilUnl 1 


rvpnC'TC 














UNI 1 LU 3 1 HI ta 


J077V 


J J / 70 


S'i49'i 

JJt7 J 


■^9100 

07 i VV 


49000 

t7 vUV 


49000 

t7 vUU 


LHNHUh 






0010 


44nn 


5000 


JUVv 


ARGENTINA 


11624 


10854 


10593 


11865 


10400 


10400 


AUSTRALIA 


979 


5492 


7269 


5815 


4000 


4000 


El-12 


4291 


4257 


8824 


7300 


6500 


6500 


0. W. EUROPE 


944 


1152 


1647 


1865 


1500 


1500 


EAST EUROPE 


3266 


3032 


5110 


1910 


2400 


2400 


THAILAND 


2326 


3316 


3352 


3830 


3600 


3600 


SOUTH AFRICA 


2300 


75 


657 


1100 


2000 


2000 


CHINA 


100 


475 


5690 


5000 


4200 


4200 


QiinTfiTai 

OUO 1 U 1 HL 


0007*r 


07 7 00 


999ST 

777JO 


Q7IRS 


DOoUU 


oDOvU 


HTUPP rnilUTBTFQ 




170/ 


I97S 


1 70J 


1 kt\t\ 

lovu 


1 Ann 


unfil n TfiTii 


070 JO 


7 1 0/ U 


IOIR7fl 

iU 1 0 / 0 


R4t70 


90700 


907An 


IMPHR'T^; 














LLr i L. 




17St A 


9SAS 

7 JO J 


JOW 


5100 
Ji vv 


5100 
Jl vv 




Ik'uT 


i 0 Jt 


1 OOt 


910 

7 1 V 


1790 


1790 

1 ^7v 


FAm FUftflPF 

LnJ 1 LUi\Ur t 


4fiS7 


471R 


^40A 

OTVO 


A1A0 


"^150 

Ol Jv 


01 JV 


unrnri 




70771 


7071 A 


709A0 

70V 


77100 


77 1 00 

LL i VV 




i. J*tO 


^0 1 


140 

1 TV 


SOO 

JW 


500 

JW 


500 

JVV 




1 inflo 

i i Vv V 




77\00 

L I OVv 


14000 


14000 

1 ^Vvv 


15000 

1 JVVV 


FfiVPT 
Co 1 r 1 


i J 1 u 




1700 


1750 

1 / JV 


7000 


7000 

^ VvV 


nLuLn 1 M 


/ JV 


1 1^0 


1 IT J 


915 

7 1 J 


1450 

1 T JU 


1450 

ITJV 


MrtRnrrn 




7'^S 

^OJ 


74fi 

iT 0 


1R0 


IflO 

1 Ov 


ino 

lOV 


TliNmiA 

1 Uli i J 1 n 


iOT 


79A 


729 


745 

i^ J 


450 

T Jv 


450 


cn|i7u LiPPirA 
0 ju In rir n 1 Ln 


7A7 

/ 0/ 


7977 


DD«J 


?0A 


A 
V 


A 


LniinUn 


750 




554 


300 


300 


300 


Mpyirn 

riL/i 1 LU 




JDJO 


Til J 




JUVv 


SAAA 

JOvV 


RPA7 11 


Its 


JOv 






AOA 

OVv 


AAA 

OVV 


rMTI F 


■^4fi 


AA 

00 


iV 


ov 


1 AA 


1 AA 


PFRtl 


44A 


4A7 

TO / 








Ouv 


UPNP7IIPj A 




1 A70 

i O^v 


i OV J 




1 SAA 


ISAA 

i JvV 


1 AHA I PA 
J nnn i Ln 


1 AA 

1 GO 


1 7V 


1 "TV 


1 Uv 


ISA 


ISA 

1 JV 


niRA 

LUDn 


4AS 
to J 


479 


JDl 




STA 


S^A 
JOV 


rni nMfti A 

uULUnD i H 


OUT 


1R1 

101 






4AA 


4AA 

tVv 




1 790 


t ORS 






1 1 AA 


1 1AA 

I 1 VV 






1 77 


1 V J 


7S 


14A 


t4A 


QAttriT APAPlTA 


o*ijy 


J70^ 


OlOv 


A9SA 

OA JV 


AflAA 


ARAA 

ODVv 


QVR] A 


77S 








SAA 


SAA 

JvV 


IRAN 


1649 


1275 


1280 


1500 


1500 


1500 


IRAQ 


489 


605 


825 


400 


500 


500 


MALAYSIA 


945 


1139 


1205 


1235 


1250 


1250 


INDONESIA 


198 


66 


49 


60 


50 


50 








0*100 


■^910 

071v 


4400 


4400 

^TVV 


PHILIPPINES 


556 


217 


284 


0 


170 


170 


TAIWAN 


4150 


3989 


4146 


4130 


4300 


4300 




490 


474 


725 


350 


450 


500 


SUBTOTAL 


84935 


86101 


94390 


78595 


80940 


81990 


OTHER COUNTRIES 


4413 


5577 


6666 


47flO 


JO/ V 


5'^70 

JO/ V 


UNACCOUNTED 1) 


505 


192 


822 


1245 


3890 


2840 


WORLD TOTAL 


89853 


91870 


101878 


84120 


90200 


90200 
















1) THIS REPRESENTS EKPORTS NOT ACCOUNTED FOR 


IN REPORTS FROM 


IMPORTING COUNTRIES. 








SINCE THIS IS RECURRING, 


IT IS TAKEN INTO ACCOUNT IN THE ASSESSMENT OF THE YEAR AHEAD 









SOURCE: PREPARED OR ESTIMATED ON THE BASIS OF OFFICIAL STATISTICS OF FOREIGN 60BERNMENTS, OTHER 
OTHER FOREIGN SOURCE MATERIALS, REPORTS OF U.S. AGRICULTURAL ATTACHES AND FOREIGN SERVICE OFFICERS, 
RESULTS OF OFFICE RESEARCH, AND RELATED INFORMATION. 

COMMODITY PROGRAMS, FAS, USDA 



22 



WORLD RICE TRADE 
CAL YEAR 1982 TO 1986 
(IN THOUSAND OF HETRiC TONS) 





CAL YR 


CAL YR 


CAL YR 


CAL YR 


CAL 1986 


CAL 1986 




1982 


1983 


1984 


1985 


HAY12 


JUNll 


EXPORTS 














UNITED STATES 


2487 


2331 


2129 


1906 


2200 


2200 


ARGENTINA 


92 


68 


115 


165 


145 


145 


AUSTRALIA 


530 


281 


370 


400 


400 


400 


BURHA 


701 


750 


727 


450 


600 


600 


CHINA 


470 


580 


1168 


1000 


900 


900 


TAIWAN 


307 


533 


210 


40 


100 


300 


EC-12 


887 


847 


772 


903 


1035 


1035 


EGYPT 


22 


21 


50 


20 


50 


50 


GUVANA 


35 


45 


47 


35 


35 


35 


INDIA 


633 


200 


200 


200 


200 


200 


INDONESIA 


0 


0 


0 


415 


300 


300 


JAPAN 


318 


321 


102 


0 


0 


0 


KOREA, DPR 


250 


250 


250 


250 


250 


250 


NEPAL 


CA 

50 


0 


20 


CA 

50 


1C 

25 


25 


PAKISTAN 


794 


1299 


1050 


962 


900 


900 


IHAlLHNi} 






J CIO 


itli 


JtOO 


7DAA 

otOO 


URUGUAY 


227 


189 


155 


231 


260 


220 


t ) T r T kl ^ M 

vlETNAfl 


1j 


140 


i CA 

150 


CA 

50 


CA 

3v 


50 


SUBTOTAL 


11438 


11555 


12043 


11070 


11350 


11510 


OTHER COUNRIES 


385 


370 


524 


400 


386 


335 


KORLD TOTAL 


11823 


11925 


12567 


11470 


11736 


11845 


IMPORTS 














BANGLADESH 


296 


82 


588 


256 


200 


200 


BRAZIL 


124 


326 


0 


400 


800 


800 


CANADA 


108 


115 


115 


115 


115 


115 


CHINA 


250 


75 


100 


100 


100 


100 


CUBA 


201 


207 


200 


200 


200 


200 


EAST EUROPE 


303 


291 


366 


292 


315 


295 


EC-12 


1327 


1046 


1302 


1236 


1355 


1355 


INDIA 


10 


315 


560 


10 


10 


10 


IRAN 


587 


680 


730 


600 


750 


75^ 


IRAQ 


369 


474 


490 


475 


550 


550 


IVORY COAST 


357 


434 


368 


250 


250 


250 


KOREA, REP. 


228 


216 


7 


0 


0 


0 


KUWAIT 


fi4 


55 


80 


90 


90 


90 


MALAGASY 


357 


IBS 


99 


120 


150 


150 


MALAYSIA 


403 


357 


437 


425 


450 


450 


MEXICO 


16 


0 


168 


164 


75 


75 


NIGERIA 


666 


711 


450 


370 


100 


100 


PERU 


58 


101 


48 


5 


150 


200 


PHILIPPINES 


0 


0 


212 


526 


150 


150 


SAUDI ARABIA 


471 


491 


530 


500 


500 


500 


SENEGAL 


370 


362 


375 


350 


350 


350 


SOUTH AFRICA 


146 


158 


186 


170 


195 


195 


SKI lANKA 


217 


157 


40 


195 


250 


250 


SYRIA 


102 


120 


130 


130 


130 


130 


U.A. EMIRATES 


102 


100 


120 


130 


140 


140 


UbsK 


859 




150 


ISO 


150 


1 CA 

IDU 


VIETNAM 


150 


30 


300 


400 


600 


600 


SUBTOTAL 


8141 


7411 


8151 


7661 


8125 


3155 


OTHER COUNTRIES 


3163 


3961 


3788 


3073 


3179 


3280 


UNACCOUNTED I) 


519 


553 


628 


736 


432 


410 


WORLD TOTAL 


11823 


11925 


12567 


11470 


11736 


11845 


li THIS REPRESENTS EXPORTS NOT ACCOUNTED FOR 


IN REPORTS FROM 


IMPORTING COUNTRIES. 








SINCE THIS IS RECURRING IT 


IS TAKEN INTO 


ACCOUNT IN THE ASSESSMENT OF THE YEAR 


AHEAD. 







SOURCE: PREPARED OR ESTIMATED ON THE BASIS OF OFFICIAL STATISTICS Of FOREIGN GOVERNMENTS, 
OTHER FOREIGN SOURCE MATERIALS, REPORTS OF U.S. AGRICULTURAL ATTACHES AND FOREIGN 
SERVICE OFFICERS, RESULTS OF OFFICE RESEARCH, AND RELATED INFORMATION. 

COMMODITY PROGRAMS, FAS, USDA 



23 



EUROPEAN COHHUNITY-12: GRAIN S «c D 
WHEAT AND COARSE BRAINS 
MARKET YEARS 1976/77 - 1986/87 
RILLIONS OF HECTARS OR HETRIC TONS 



WHEAT 



COARSE 





AREA 


YIELD 


PROuLiCTION 


— IHFORTS 




— EXPORTS 




DOHESTIC UTILIZATION 


ENDING 


HhR 


VESTED 






t4I'T 1/1% TP. *T\^ 

HKT YR TRADE 


YR 1/ 


MKT YR TRhDE 


YR 1/ 


rttD Ubh 


IuihL 


STOCKS 


COARSE GRAINS 






















1976/77 


36.4 


2.98 


108.5 


49.2 


35.5 


20.6 


9.2 


83. 1 


138.2 


17.3 


1977/78 


35.6 


3.41 


121. 1 


45.9 


28.7 


26.0 


10.5 


nc 7 

85. 7 


142. J 


15.9 


1978/79 


36.8 


3.73 


137.2 


42.9 


26.1 


28.5 


14.3 


89.3 


146.3 


21.2 


1979/8(5 


36.6 


3.62 


132.3 


43.0 


27.3 


31.1 


15.7 


n A 4 

90. 1 


i M7 4 

147. 1 


18.3 


1980/81 


36.9 


3.90 


144.2 


39.7 


25.2 


36.7 


21.6 


87.9 


144.5 


20.9 


1981/82 


36.6 


3.67 


134.2 


42.4 


24.1 


36.7 


19.7 


86.5 


142.8 


IB.O 


1982/83 


36.6 


3.97 


145.3 


36. 1 


18.6 


36.9 


20.6 


85. / 


140.7 


21.6 


1983/84 


36.0 


3.83 


137.7 


34.1 


17.1 


37.4 


19.7 


a/. 2 


141.7 


14.0 


1984/85 


36. 1 


4.77 


172.5 


33.4 


12.5 


47.6 


26.6 


QO ' 
□ 0.0 


14d. 2 


27.1 


1985/86 2/ 


7 C / 

J J. 0 


1 an 

4.48 


159.2 


^ a A 

j4.0 


8.7 


47.7 


22.8 


07. / 


i4ci. I 


26.5 


1966/87 3/ 


35.6 


4.46 


158.9 


32.9 


7.7 


45.1 


23.0 


88.7 


143.5 


29.8 


1976/77 


15.4 


,>.U2 


46.6 


4 A n 

10.2 


5.9 


10.9 


5. 1 


10,0 


4D.0 


9.7 


1977/78 


14.0 


19 


44.5 


13.3 


6.3 


4 '"i 7 

12.7 


5. 1 


10. 0 


4 / . J 


7.4 


1978/79 


4 C 4 

15. 1 


3.67 


55.3 


4 4 T 

11.7 


5.7 


4 r 7 

15.3 


6.8 


12.1 


47.9 


4 4 7 

11.3 


1979/80 


14.8 


3.59 


53.2 


12.0 


6.4 


17.8 


10.7 


12.8 


48.9 


9.7 


1980/81 


15.6 


3.94 


61.5 


11.4 


5.6 


21.7 


15.7 


13.0 


AO i 

47.4 


11.6 


1981/82 


15.7 


3.71 


58.1 


12. 1 


5.6 


22. 3 


15.7 


14.0 


to L 
#7.0 


9.8 


1982/83 


16.0 


4.04 


64.7 


10. 1 


4.6 


21.9 


16.3 


1 J. 7 




12.4 


198o/84 


4 / 4 

16. 1 


0.97 


63.8 


10.9 


4.5 


22. / 


4 C C 

15.5 


T 1 i 
11, I 


jD. 0 


n J 

8.6 


1984/85 


16.2 


5. il 


8i.8 


4 ^ 4 

b.l 


3.0 


26.4 


4 7 n 

17.8 


T7 7 


J7. £) 


16.6 


1985/86 11 


15.3 


4.67 


7 4 C 

71.5 


4 C 4 

15.1 


ii.9 


27.6 


4 t r 

15.5 


7 


CQ Q 

J7. 0 


4 p n 

15.8 


1986/87 3/ 


15.7 


4.79 


75.4 


15.2 


2.6 


27.4 


16.5 


T A A 
24.0 


J7, 1 


19.8 


UNS 4/ 






















4m/ / T ^ 


^4 A 

21.0 


2.95 


£j1.? 


^9.0 


r-, r\ / 

i:9.6 


n 7 

9.7 


4.1 


77 1 


Yi.o 


7 1 

7.6 


1977/78 


n 4 / 

21.6 


^.55 


76. t) 


o2.6 


i2.4 


13.3 


c c 

J.J 


74 0 
/4. 7 


7J,0 


8.4 


4 m r\ f 

1978//9 


21.7 


3.7/ 


n 4 o 

81.9 


^4 4 
sjl.l 


20.4 


13.2 


5 . 5 


77 ^ 

77.3 


98.4 


n n 

9.9 


1979/80 


21.7 


3.64 


79.2 


31.0 


20.9 


13.3 


5.0 


77.4 


98.3 


8.5 


1980/81 


21.3 


3.87 


82.6 


28.3 


19.7 


15.0 


5.9 


74.5 


95.1 


9.4 


1981/82 


20.9 


3.64 


76.1 


30.4 


18.6 


14.4 


4.0 


72.3 


93.2 


8.3 


1982/83 


20.6 


3.91 


80.7 


25.9 


14.0 


15.0 


4.3 


69.8 


90.6 


9.2 


1983/84 


19.9 


3.72 


73.9 


23.2 


12.5 


14.7 


4.3 


66.1 


86.2 


5.4 


1984/85 


20.0 


4.49 


89.7 


20.3 


9.6 


19.2 


8.8 


65.4 


85.7 


10.5 


1985/86 2/ 


20.3 


4.33 


87.7 


18.9 


5.8 


20.1 


7.3 


65.8 


86.3 


10.7 


1986/87 3/ 


19.9 


4.20 


83.6 


17.7 


5.1 


17.6 


6.5 


64.7 


84.3 


10.0 



1/ EXCLUDES INTRA-EC TRADE. WHEAT AND COARSE GRAINS ARE ON A JULY/ JUNE BASIS THROUGH 1978/79. 

FROH 1979/80 ON, COARSE GRAINS ARE ON AN OCTDBER/SEPTEMBER BASIS. 
2/ PRELIMINARY. 
3/ FORECAST. 

4/ RYE, BARLEY, OATS, CORN, SORGHUM, AND MIXED GRAINS. 

SOURSE: PREPARED OR ESTIMATED ON BASIS OF OFFICIAL STATISTICS OF FOREIGN GOVERNMENTS, OTHER FOREIGN SOURCE 
MATERIALS, REPORTS OF U.S. AGRICULTURAL ATTACHES AND FOREIGN SERVICE OFFICERS, RESULTS OF OFFICIAL RESEARCH, 
AND RELATED INFORMATION. 

COMMODITY PROGRAMS, FAS, USDA GRAIN AND FEED DIVISION 



2h 



EASTERN EUROPE: GRAIN S is D 
WHEAT AND COARSE GRAINS 
TRADE YEARS* 1977/7B - 1986/87 
HILLIONS HETRIC TONS/HECTARES 



WHEAT 



COARSE 





AREA 


VTCi A 
T ItLu 


rnUUuL ! lUN 


TMPnDTC 

inruR 1 0 


CYPnCTC 


nt 1 


U 1 ILl An 1 lUM 


0 1 ULho 


HARVESTED 










inrUn 1 a 


1 U 1 HL 1 / 


ruaucc 9 / 
LnHRac Z/ 


COARSE GRAINS 


















1977/78 


29.6 


3.17 


93.9 


i y 7 

13.3 


4. 1 


9.2 


103.4 


A A 

0.0 


1978/79 


29.2 


3.o>0 


96.4 


f CT A 

15.0 


7 4 

5.4 


11. 0 


4 AO L 

109.6 


A i 

-0.4 


1979/80 


29.0 


3.14 


91.1 


17.6 


2.9 


14.7 


104.4 


0.0 


1980/81 


28.9 


7 7T 

3. 02 


96.0 


16. 1 


4.5 


11.6 


1 10.2 


ft i 

-0.4 


1981/82 


28.8 


3.31 


or 1 
7 J. i 


12.5 


4.1 


8.3 


104.1 


0.2 


1982/83 


28.8 


^.71 


106.7 


7.4 


5.6 


7 7 

5.7 


1U8.4 


i 4 

1.1 


1983/84 


28.9 


J. jj 




Q A 


J. 0 


9 7 
It 1 


1 A^ A 
IUj. 0 


-A 7 


1984/85 


28.9 


0. 70 


ltd? 

i It . 7 


A A 

0. V 


7 '> 


-1 9 


1 1 9 A 


9 A 
Z.U 


1985/86 3/ 


28.7 


Jt 1 V 


i UO. J. 


7 . 0 


It 7 


3.7 


1 1 7 A 
1 IZ. U 


-7 A 
Z. v 


1936/87 4/ 


28.7 




In7 S 


A A 
0.0 


t. 0 


1.0 


lAR S 
lUO. □ 


A A 


1977/78 


10 1 




o'r.O 


^ A 
J. U 


/. 0 


9 7 
i.. / 


77 9 
0/ . Z 


A 1 


1970/79 


10.2 






*f . 7 


7 7 
it L 


9 9 


79 f 
07 . i 


-A 


1979/80 


9.3 


2.97 


27.6 


6.1 


1.1 


5.0 


32.1 


0.0 


1980/81 


9.7 


3.56 


34.6 


5.8 


2.5 


3.4 


38.5 


0.1 


1981/82 


9.0 


<J. UD 


oU.o 


A 9 
0. i 


9 A 
LtV 


A 7 

7,0 


7^ i 
oD. 1 


-A 1 


1982/83 


9.4 


0. 07 


7 

OS. / 


7. J 


7 A 

i. 7 


9 9 


7A 0 

00. 7 


-A 1 

y. 1 


1983/84 


10.0 


0. UJ 


OJ. S 


Oa 0 


9 T 


1 . J 


77 1 
0/ . 1 


-A 7 

V. 0 


1984/85 


10.1 






A 

^. 0 


1 1 




70 0 
07 . 7 


A 7 

y. / 


1985/86 3/ 


9.9 


1 77 

■Jm 1 / 


0 / . □ 


0. / 




1 9 

it L. 


7fl A 
00. 0 


-A 7 

y . 0 


1986/87 4/ 


10.1 


■J. 01 


00. 0 


7 c; 
0. J 


9 A 
i., 7 


1 . 1 


7Q 7 
07. 0 


A 


\m 5/ 


















1977/78 


19.5 




J7 . 0 


0, 0 


1 . 0 


A A 
0.0 


AA 9 
00. Z 


-A 1 


1978/79 


18.9 




AA ^, 


lA A 
Iv. 0 


1 9 


Q A 


7A A 
/v. 0 


A 1 


1979/80 


19.8 


3.20 


63.4 


11. 5 


1.8 


O 7 

9.7 


71 7 

72.5 


A i 

-0. 1 


1980/81 


19.2 


3.24 


62.3 


10.2 


2.1 


8.1 


72.5 


-0.5 


1981/82 


19.7 


3.27 


64.5 


6.1 


2.1 


4.0 


69.1 


0.3 


1982/83 


19.4 


3.72 


72.0 


4.9 


3.3 


1.6 


71.6 


1.2 


1983/84 


18.9 


3.55 


67.1 


4.2 


3.0 


1.2 


68.5 


-0.5 


1984/85 


18.7 


3.89 


72.9 


3.4 


3.1 


0.3 


72.7 


1.3 


1985/86 3/ 


18.6 


3.66 


68.7 


6.2 


1.9 


4.3 


73.5 


-1.7 


1986/87 4/ 


18.6 


3.70 


68.9 


3.2 


2.4 


0.8 


69.2 


0.4 



*: MHEAT AND COARSE GRAINS ARE ON A JULY/JUNE TRADE YEAR THROUGH 1978/79. FROH 1979/80 ON, COARSE BRAINS 

ARE ON AN OCTOBER/SEPTEHBER TRADE YEAR. 
1/ REPRESENTS APPARENT UTILIZATION, I.E. INCLUDES ANNUAL STOCK LEVEL ADJUSTMENTS FOR THOSE COUNTRIES FOR 

WHICH NO STOCKS DATA ARE AVAILABLE. 
2/ INCLUDES YEAR-TO-YEAR FLUCTUATIONS ONLY FOR THOSE COUNTRIES OR COHHODITIES FOR WHICH STOCK DATA 

ARE AVAILABLE. 
3/ PRELIHINARY. 
4/ PROJECTION. 

5/ RYE, BARLEY, OATS, CORN, SORGHUM, AND MIXED GRAINS. 

SOURCES; PREPARED OR ESTIMATED ON BASIS OF OFFICIAL STATISTICS OF FOREIGN GOVERNMENTS, OTHER FOREIGN SOURCE 
MATERIALS, REPORTS OF U.S. AGRICULTURAL ATTACHES AND FOREIGN SERVICE OFFICERS, RESULTS OF OFFICE RESEARCH, 
AND RELATED INFORMATION. 

COMMODITY PROGRAMS, FAS, USDA GRAIN AND FEED DIVISION 



25 



USSR AND CHINA: 8RAIN S k D 
WHEAT AND COARSE GRAINS 
JULY/JUNE YEARS 1978/79 - 1986/87 
MILLION NETRIC TONS/HECTARES 



USSR 

NHEAT AND 



WHEAT 





AREA 


YIELD 


PRODUCTION 


JUL/JUM 


JUL/JUN 


NET 


UTILIZATION 


STOCKS 


HARVESTED 






IHPORTS 


EXPORTS 


IMPORTS 


TOTAL 1/ 


CHANGE 2/ 


LUHnbc bKAlNb 


















i 070 /TO 


120.9 


1.87 


226.1 


15.0 


2.5 


12.5 


219.7 


19.0 


( mo /Oft 
IV/V/oO 


118.9 


1.44 


171.3 


30.5 


0.5 


30.0 


214.3 


-13.0 


1980/81 


119.3 


1.50 


178.7 


34.0 


0.5 


33.5 


214.2 


-2.0 


< no 1 /OO 

1981/82 


in *? 
II/. J 


1.30 


152.0 


45.0 


0.5 


44.5 


200.5 


-4.0 


1982/85 


115.3 


1.49 


172.0 


31.5 


0.5 


31.0 


204.0 


-1.0 


198i/84 


112.0 


1.59 


178.0 


32.0 


0.5 


31.5 


206.5 


3.0 


l704/0D 


110,3 


1.44 


159.0 


55.0 


1.0 


54.0 


207.0 


6.0 


l70j/ao 6/ 


108.7 


1.63 


177.0 


28.0 


1.0 


27.0 


204.0 


0.0 


1986/87 4/ 


108.5 


1.59 


173.0 


31.0 


1.0 


30.0 


203.0 


0.0 


1978/79 


62.9 


1.92 


120.8 


5.1 


1.5 


3.6 


106.5 


18.0 


1979/80 


57.7 


1.56 


90.2 


12.1 


0.5 


11.6 


114.8 


-13.0 


1980/81 


61.5 


1.60 


98.2 


16.0 


0.5 


15.5 


114.7 


-1.0 


1981/82 


59.2 


1.35 


80. 0 


19.5 


0.5 


19.0 


102.0 


-3.0 


1982/83 


57.3 


1.50 


86.0 


20.2 


0.5 


19.7 


105.7 


0.0 


1983/84 


50.8 


1.56 


79.0 


20.5 


0.5 


20.0 


97.0 


2.0 


1984/85 


51.1 


1.43 


73.0 


28.1 


1.0 


27.1 


96.1 


4.0 


1985/86 3/ 


50.3 


1.65 


83.0 


16.0 


1.0 


15.0 


98.0 


0.0 


1986/87 4/ 


49.0 


1.57 


77.0 


17.0 


1.0 


16.0 


93.0 


0.0 



COARSE GRAINS 5/ 



1978/79 


58.0 


1.82 


105.3 


9.9 


1.0 


8.9 


113.2 


1.0 


1979/80 


61.2 


1.33 


81.1 


13.4 


0.0 


18.4 


99.5 


0.0 


1980/81 


57.9 


1.39 


80.5 


18.0 


0.0 


18.0 


99.5 


-1.0 


1981/82 


58.0 


1.24 


72.0 


25.5 


0.0 


25.5 


98.5 


-1.0 


1982/83 


58.0 


1.48 


86.0 


11.3 


0.0 


11.3 


98.3 


-1.0 


1583/84 


61.2 


1.62 


99.0 


11.5 


0.0 


11.5 


109.5 


1.0 


1984/65 


59.2 


1.45 


86.0 


26.9 


0.0 


26.9 


110.9 


2.0 


1985/86 3/ 


58.5 


1.61 


94.0 


12.0 


0.0 


12.0 


106.0 


0.0 


1986/87 4/ 


59.5 


1.61 


96.0 


14.0 


0.0 


14.0 


110.0 


0.0 



CHINA 

WHEAT AND COARSE GRAINS 



WHEAT 



1978/79 


62.7 


2.12 


132.8 


11.1 


0.1 


11.0 


143.9 


0.0 


1979/80 


63.1 


2.31 


145.8 


10.9 


0.1 


10.8 


15t3.6 


0.0 


1980/81 


61.7 


2.26 


139.4 


14.6 


0.2 


14.4 


154.0 


0.0 


1931/82 


59.4 


2.36 


140.4 


14.5 


0.2 


14.3 


154.8 


0.0 


1982/83 


57.2 


2.64 


150.8 


15.7 


0.1 


15.0 


166.4 


0.0 


1983/84 


58.6 


2.97 


174.0 


9.8 


0.5 


9.4 


183.4 


0.0 


1984/85 


58.3 


3.14 


183.3 


7.5 


5.7 


1.9 


185.1 


0.0 


1985/86 3/ 


57.0 


2.97 


169.2 


6.4 


4.9 


1.5 


170.6 


0.0 


1986/87 4/ 


57.8 


3.14 


181.8 


7.5 


4.2 


3.3 


185.1 


0.0 


1978/79 


29.2 


1.84 


53.8 


8.0 


0.0 


8.0 


61.9 


0.0 


1979/80 


29.4 


2.13 


62.7 


8.9 


0.0 


8.9 


71.6 


0.0 


1980/81 


29.2 


1.89 


55,2 


13.8 


0.0 


13.8 


69.0 


0.0 


1981 '82 


28.3 


2.11 


59.6 


13.2 


0.0 


13.2 


72.8 


0,0 


1982/83 


27.9 


2.45 


68.4 


13.0 


0.0 


13.0 


81.4 


0.0 


1983/84 


29.1 


2.80 


81.4 


9.6 


0.0 


9.6 


91.0 


0.0 


1934/85 


29.6 


2.97 


87.8 


7.4 


0.0 


7.4 


9^. 


0.0 


1985/86 3/ 


29.6 


2.88 


85.3 


6.0 


0.0 


6.0 


91.3 


0.0 


1986 37 4/ 


30.0 


2.92 


87.5 


7.0 


0.0 


7.0 


94.5 


0.0 



COARSE GRAINS 5/ 



1978/79 


33.5 


2.36 


79.0 


3.1 


0.1 


3.0 


82.0 


0.0 


1979/80 


33.7 


2.47 


83.1 


2.0 


0.1 


1.9 


85.0 


0.0 


1930/81 


32.5 


2.59 


84.2 


0.9 


0.2 


0.7 


85.0 


0.0 


1981/82 


31. 1 


2.60 


80.8 


1.3 


0.2 


1.1 


81.9 


0.0 


1982/83 


29.3 


2.81 


82.4 


2.7 


0.1 


2.6 


85.0 


0.0 


1963/84 


29.6 


3.13 


92.7 


0.2 


0.5 


-0.2 


92.4 


0.0 


1984/85 


28.7 


3.32 


95.4 


0.1 


5.7 


-5.6 


89.9 


0.0 


1965/86 3/ 


27.3 


3.07 


83.9 


0.4 


4.9 


-4.6 


79.3 


0.0 


1986/87 4/ 


27.8 


3.39 


94.3 


0.5 


4.2 


-3. ' 


90.6 


0.0 



1/ FEED USE DATA ARE UNAVAILABLE FOR CHINA. 

21 FOR CHINA. UTILIZATION ESTIMATES REPRESENT 'APPARENT' UTILIZATION, I.E. THEY INCLUDE ANNUAL STOCK LEVEL 

ADJUSTMENTS THOUGH NO STOCKS DATA ARE AVAILABLE. 
3/ PRELIMINARY. 
4/ PROJECTION. 

5/ COARSE GRAINS INCLUDE BARLEY, RYE, OATS, CORN, SORGHUM, AND MILLET. EICLUDED ARE MISCELLANEOUS GRAINS, 
PULSES AND RICE. 

SOURCES: PREPARED OR ESTIMATED ON BASIS OF OFFICIAL STATISTICS OF FOREIGN GOVERNMENTS, OTHER FOREIGN SOURCE 
MATERIALS, REPORTS OF U.S. AGRICULTURAL ATTACHES AND FOREIGN SERVICE OFFICERS, RESULTS OF OFFICE RESEARCH, 
AND RELATED INFORMATION. 

COMMOblTy PROGRAMS, FAS, USDA GRAIN AND FEED DIVISION 



26 



«HEAT: SUPPLY AND DISAPPEARANCE 
U.S. AND MAJOR COHPETITORS 

1979/80 - 1986/87 
MILLION METRIC TOt<S/HECTARES 





AREA 


YIELD PRODUCTION 




u A r un 1 u 


1 / 




MItT YFflR 7/ 




HARVESTED 








.1111 /.IMN 


MKY 


YEAR 


END STOCKS 




CANADA (MARKETING YEAR AUG/JUL) 














1979/80 


10.5 


1.64 


17.2 


5.5 


15.0 




15.9 


10.7 




11.1 


1.74 


19.3 


J. L 


17 (I 




\k X 


fl A 
o . u 


1 QQ 1 /O*^ 


12.4 


2.00 


24.8 




17 A 




1R 4 


9 fl 

7 ■ 0 




12.6 


2.13 


26.7 


s t 
J. 1 


7t 4 




71 1 

i 1 . 7 


1 VI V 




13.7 


1.94 


26.5 




7i n 






9 9 

7 a ^ 


1 CO J .0^ 


13.2 


1.61 


21.2 




1Q 4 




1 / . 0 


7 A 

/ ■ 0 


i7oD/oo ^^/ 


13.7 


1.75 


23.9 


S ft 


17 S 




t R 11 


7 7 


i7D0/D/ *T/ 


13.7 


1.90 


26.0 


tit 4> 


19 0 

17. V 




19 0 


9 7 




AUSTRALIA (MARKETING YEAR OCT/SEPT) 












1979/80 


11.2 


1.45 


16.2 


3.4 


15.0 




13.2 


4.3 


1 0OA ID 1 
1 YoU/ H 1 


11.3 


0.96 


10.9 


7 K 
0. ^ 


lA A 




9 A 

7 . 0 


7 A 




11.9 


1.38 


16.4 


7 A 

La O 


11 A 
1 is V 




1 1 A 

1 1 . V 


i R 


1QQ9/07 


11.5 


0.77 


8.9 


1 1 

1 


fl 1 




7 7 


7 5 


1 7D0/ 


12.9 


1.70 


22.0 








15 3 


7 


1 0H4 /fl^ 

iTOT/OJ 


12.1 


1.55 


18.7 










R S 


JVDJ/Bo 0/ 


11.7 


1.37 


16.1 


X 7 


IS 7 

ilia / 




IS S 


S fl 


1700/0/ 


11.8 


1.30 


15.3 


T 1 
0. 1 


14 S 
Its J 




!4 S 

I T I J 


>> I J 




ARGENTINA (MARKETING YEAR DEC/NOV) 












1979/80 


4.8 


1.69 


8. 1 


4.0 


4.8 




4.8 


0.4 


17 01.'/ 01 


5.0 


1.55 


7.8 




3.9 




3.8 


0.4 


1 OBI /R9 
1701/ oi 


5.9 


1.40 


0 t O 


4 \ 


4 "{ 




3.6 


0.8 


1 7DZ/ uo 


7.3 


2.05 




4 fl 


7 s 

law 




9.9 


111 


l700/0*t 


6.9 


1.85 




1 7 

^» f 


9 7 

7 ■ r 




7.8 


1.3 


1 7 Ot / Q J 


6.0 


2.22 


13.2 


4 h 


8.0 




9. 4 


0.5 


170J/00 0/ 


5.3 


1.61 


8.5 


4 4 


A 1 




4.2 


0.4 


tOHA/n? 4/ 

1 7 00/ 0 / t / 


5.1 


1.90 


9.6 


4.5 


4.6 




5. 1 


0.4 




TOTAL COMPETITORS 
















1979/80 


26.5 


1.57 


41.5 


12.9 


34.8 




33.9 


15.4 




27.4 


1.38 


37.9 




■^1 




29.7 


H.O 


1701/ Oi. 


30.2 


1.64 


49.5 


1 ? t 






35 1 


15.3 


! QQ'/ ,'Q7 
1 7 Ox.' Do 


31.4 


1.61 


50.6 


\i 0 

I Ti V 






5fi S 

00 * J 


13.4 


1 OR \/flJ 


33.5 


1.83 


61.3 


l"\ 7 






n J i V 


Ifi A 

1 0 ■ V.' 


1 70^/ OJ 


31.2 


1.70 


53.1 


i J I J 


4'> 7 




11 fl 
*t 1 1 V 


1 0 . J 


IVOiJ/DO Of 


30.7 


1,58 


48.4 




07 »0 




"n7 7 


\\ R 


1700/0/ ^/ 


30 . 5 


1.67 


50.9 


1 X 1 
1 J I 1 


"^R 1 

OOi 1 




00 > 0 


10.1 




U.S. (MARKETING YEAR JUN/HAY) 














1979/80 


25.3 


2.30 


58.1 


21.3 


37.2 




37.4 


24.5 


1 QQi\ J Q 1 
iTOV/ Dl 


28.8 


2.25 


64.8 


J.1 . 0 


.7 




T 1 . i 


7A 0 

ZO. 7 


t 00 1 /Q? 


32.6 


2.32 


75.8 


11 t 
^O. 1 


ID a 




4Q '» 
to. ^ 


Ol .J 


l70i/00 


31.5 


2.39 


75.3 


91 7 


07.7 




11.1 


it 7 
'rl . Z 


i7oO/D4 


24.8 


2.65 


65.9 




XQ 0 

00.7 




7Q 0 

00. 7 


XO t 
00. 1 


1 oca /Qc; 
l70H/aJ 


27.1 


2.61 


70.6 


Ol . 4 


TO i 
00. t 




00. 0 


00. D 


1 0 0^ / Q i T / 


26.2 


2.52 


66.0 


90 c 
i7 . J 






11 R 


^A 0 
JV. 7 


1001./ 07 d/ 

1700/0/ *ty 


24.9 


2.35 


58.6 


01.0 


Ou.9 




70 0 


17 fl 
7 / . 0 




TOTAL U.S. AND COMPETITORS 














1979/80 


51.8 


1.92 


99.6 


34.2 


72.0 




71.3 


39.9 


1980/81 


56.2 


1.83 


102.7 


33.9 


73.5 




70.9 


37.9 


1981/82 


62.9 


1.99 


125.3 


35.1 


81.7 




81.3 


46.9 


1982/83 


62.9 


2.00 


125.9 


38.7 


76.9 




79.6 


54.6 


1983/84 


58.4 


2.18 


127.1 


44.0 


80.9 




81.6 


56.0 


1984/85 


58.3 


2.12 


123.7 


44.9 


80.8 




79.7 


55.3 


1985/86 3/ 


56.9 


2.01 


114.4 


43.0 


64.3 




62. 5 


64.7 


1986/87 4/ 


55.4 


1.98 


109.5 


44.9 


68.6 




68.5 


60.9 



1/ INCLUDES THE WHEAT EQUIVALENT OF FLOUR. 

2/ NET CHANGES IN FARM STOCKS FOR ARGENTINA AND AUSTRALIA ARE REFLECTED IN DOMESTIC DISAPPEARANCE. 
3/ PRELIMINARY, 
4/ PROJECTED. 

SOURCES: PREPARED OR ESTIMATED ON BASIS OF OFFICIAL STATISTICS OF FOREIGN GOVERNMENTS, OTHER FOREIGN SOURCE 
MATERIALS, REPORTS OF U.S. AGRICULTURAL ATTACHES AND FOREIGN SERVICE OFFICERS, RESULTS OF OFFICE RESEARCH, 
AND RELATED INFORMATION. 



COMMODITY PROGRAMS, FAS, USDA GRAIN AND FEED DIVISION 



2T 



SELECTED COARSE GRAINS 
HAJOR FOREIGN EXPORTERS 
PRODUCTION YEARS 1979 - 1986 
THOUSANDS OF METRIC TONS/HECTARES 





AREA 


YIELD PRODUCTION 


D0I1ESTIC 


-- EXPORTS -- 


ENDING 




HARVESTED 






USE 


OCT/SEP 


HKT YEAR 


STOCKS 


ARGENTINA 


GRAIN SORGHUH (NAfi/FEB) 












i79) 1980/81 


1279 


2.31 


2960 


1585 


4860 


1494 


22 


(80) 1981/82 


2100 


3.38 


7100 


2050 


5216 


4940 


132 


(81) 1982/83 


2510 


3.19 


8000 


2090 


4931 


5544 


498 


(82) 1983/84 


2520 


3.02 


7600 


2700 


4788 


5197 


201 


(83) 1984/85 


2370 


3.04 


7200 


3200 


3360 


4134 


67 


(84) 1985/86 


1987 


2.97 


5900 


2500 


2200 


3227 


240 


(85) 1986/87 1/ 


1350 


3.33 


4500 


2500 


1700 


2000 


240 


(86) 1987/88 2/ 


1400 


3.00 


4200 


2500 




1700 


240 


AUSTRALIA 


BRAIN SORBHUN (NAR/FEE) 












(79) 1980/81 


519 


1.78 


922 


367 


510 


506 


183 


(80) 1981/82 


658 


1.63 


1204 


466 


1238 


856 


65 


(81) 1982/83 


649 


2.03 


1317 


366 


281 


961 


55 


(32) 1983/84 


707 


1.36 


958 


701 


1364 


282 


30 


(83) 1984/85 


730 


2.58 


1835 


304 


1196 


1553 


58 


(84) 1985/86 


723 


1.89 


1369 


331 


1000 


1086 


10 


(85) 1966/87 1/ 


728 


1.72 


1255 


305 


975 


950 


to 


(86) 1987/88 11 


700 


1.86 


1300 


350 




950 


10 


ARGENTINA 


CORN 


(HftR/FEB) 












(79) 1980/61 


2490 


2.57 


6400 


3048 


9016 


3417 


108 


(80) 1981/82 


3394 


3.80 


12900 


3700 


4922 


9098 


210 


(81) 1982/83 


3170 


3.03 


9600 


3500 


6483 


5765 


545 


(821 1983/84 


2970 


3.03 


9000 


3200 


5885 


6056 


289 


(83) 1984/85 


3025 


3.04 


9200 


3950 


7043 


5448 


91 


!84) 1985/86 


3350 


3.43 


11500 


4075 


9500 


7195 


321 


(65) 1986/87 1/ 


3500 


3.71 


13000 


3700 


8500 


9300 


321 


(86) 1987/88 2/ 


3500 


3.57 


12500 


3700 




8800 


321 


SOUTH AFRICA 


CORN 


(NfiY/APR) 












(79) 1980/81 


4322 


2.50 


10794 


6757 


3930 


3444 


1952 


(80) 1981/82 


4339 


3.38 


14645 


7097 


4700 


4955 


4545 


(81) 1982/83 


4278 


1.95 


8355 


7663 


2300 


4034 


1333 


(82) 1983/84 


4065 


i.OO 


4083 


7525 


75 


238 


42 


!83) 1984/85 


3953 


1.11 


4405 


6182 


500 


9 


264 


(84) 1985/86 


3887 


2.00 


7755 


6188 


1000 


406 


1625 


(85) 1986/87 1/ 


4000 


2.00 


8000 


6545 


1975 


2175 


905 


(86) 1987/83 2/ 


4150 


2.17 


9000 


6550 




2500 


855 


THAILAND 


CORN 


(JUL/JUN) 












(79) 1979/80 


1424 


2.32 


3300 


1050 


2067 


2150 


153 


(80) 1980/81 


1450 


2.21 


3200 


1108 


2113 


2142 


103 


(81) 1981/82 


1750 


2.49 


4350 


1050 


3260 


3260 


143 


(82) 1982/83 


1850 


1.86 


3450 


1160 


2136 


2136 


297 


(83) 1983/84 


1825 


2.16 


3950 


1300 


3026 


2846 


101 


(84) 1984/85 


1955 


2.23 


4350 


1290 


3010 


J057 


107 


(35) 1985/86 1/ 


2150 


2.40 


5150 


1150 


3500 


3400 


707 


(86) 1986/87 2/ 


2000 


2.40 


4800 


1350 


3275 


3600 


557 


AUSTRALIA 


BARLEY (NOV/OCT) 












(79) 1979/80 


2482 


1.49 


3703 


1357 


2900 


2824 


55 


(80) 1980/81 


2451 


1.09 


2682 


831 


1540 


1781 


125 


i81) 1981/82 


2685 


1.28 


3450 


1266 


1702 


2259 


50 


(82) 1982/83 


2452 


0.79 


1939 


1015 


600 


884 


90 


•93) 1983 ■84 


3109 


1.57 


4890 


810 


3721 


4117 


53 


(84) 1984/85 


3518 


1.58 


5554 


914 


5566 


4500 


193 


(85) 1985/86 1/ 


3483 


1.38 


4800 


900 


4500 


4000 


93 


(86) 1986/87 2/ 


3000 


1.30 


3900 


900 


2600 


3000 


93 


CANADA 


BARLEY (AUG/JUL) 












(79) 1979/60 


3724 


2.27 


8460 


7537 


2963 


3832 


2006 


(801 1980/81 


4634 


2.43 


11259 


6835 


4012 


3236 


3203 


31) 1981/82 


5476 


2.51 


13724 


7046 


5543 


5722 


4161 


(821 1982/83 


5149 


2.71 


13966 


7275 


6071 


5648 


5204 


(33) 1983/84 


4353 


2.35 


10209 


7906 


4240 


5536 


1971 


(84) 1984/85 


4566 


2.25 


10296 


7464 


2454 


2781 


2022 


(85) 1985/86 1/ 


4752 


2.58 


12247 


7540 


3500 


3500 


3229 


(861 1986/87 2/ 


4400 


2.61 


11500 


7800 


4035 


4000 


2929 


MOTE: YEARS IN PARENTHESES DENOTE PRODUCTION YEARS USED FOR AGGREGATING NORLD CROPS. SPLIT 


YEARS 





(E.G. 1982/83) APE NARKETING YEARS. 

1/ PRELIMINARY. 
21 PROJECTED. 

SOURCES: PREPARED OR ESTIMATED ON BASIS OF OFFICIAL STATISTICS OF FOREIGN GOVERNMENTS, OTHER FOREIGN SOURCE 
MATERIALS, REPORTS OF U.S. AGRICULTURAL ATTACHES AND FOREIGN SERVICE OFFICERS, RESULTS OF OFFICE RESEARCH, 
AND RELATED INFORMATION. 

COMMODITY PROGRAMS, FAS, USOA GRAIN AND FEED DIVISION 



28 



U.S. WHEAT AND COARSE 5RAINS 
HILLIDN METRIC TONS'HECTARES 
HARkET yEARS 1970/71 - 1986/87 



WHEAT 



COARSE 





BEGINNIN6 


AREA 


YIELD 


PRODUCTION 


IIIPORTS 


EXPORTS 


DOMESTIC 


DOMESTIC 




STOCKS 


HARVESTED 










FOR FEED 


TOTAL USE 


^ND COARSE 6RAINS 


















1970/71 


72.9 


SB. 4 


3.1 


182.9 


0.4 


38.8 


132.2 


162.8 


1971/72 


54.6 


62.9 


3.7 


233.6 


0.3 


40.5 


143.1 


174.7 


1972/73 


73.4 


57.5 


3,9 


224.1 


0.4 


69.1 


147.6 


180.9 


1973/74 


47.9 


63.5 


7 n 
0. / 


233.4 


0.3 


73.8 


143.0 


176.7 


1974/75 


31.1 


67.2 


3.0 


\19A 


0.6 


63.6 


101.5 


135.1 


1975/76 


32.3 


70.7 


3.4 


243.3 


0.5 


81.2 


116.6 


153.6 


1976/77 


41.3 


72.0 


■? c 

■->. J 


252.9 


0.4 


76.0 


115.6 


153.0 


1977/78 


65.6 


71.2 


3.7 


261.4 


0.4 


66.2 


122.2 


160.3 


1978/79 


81.0 


66. i 


4.1 


270.4 


0.3 


92.0 


138.9 


178.2 


1979/80 


81.5 


67.1 


4.4 


296.5 


0.4 


108.4 


142.2 


182.8 


1960/81 


87.1 


70.1 


3.3 


263. 1 


0.4 


111.9 


126.0 


16?. 3 


1981/62 


69 4 


76 1 


4.2 


322 4 


0.4 


i08,2 


111 

X -J 1 t ^ 


\7h 3 

1 / C • -J 


1962/83 


107.7 


74.8 


4.4 


326.0 


0.6 


94.1 


144.1 


191.6 


1983/84 


143. £> 


57.7 


3.5 


203.0 


0.8 


95.5 


130.9 


181.0 


1984/85 


76.0 


70.6 


4.4 


303.3 


1.0 


?5.4 


143.0 


195.5 


1985/86 


94.4 


71.6 


4.3 


340.3 


I.O 


62.8 


140.7 


196.0 


1986/87 


176.9 


66.5 


4.4 


294.0 


0.7 


78.6 


145.8 


201.6 


1987/83 


191.1 
















1970/71 


26. B 


17.7 


2.1 


36.6 


0.0 


20.2 


5.3 


21.0 


1971/72 


22.4 


19.3 


2.3 


44.1 


0.0 


16.3 


7.1 


23.4 


1972/73 


26.8 


19.1 


i.9 i. 


42.1 


0.0 


30.4 


5.5 


22.3 


1973/74 


16.2 


21.9 


2.1 


46.6 


0.1 


33.1 


3.5 


20.5 


1974/75 


9.3 


26.5 


1.8 


48.5 


0.1 


27.7 


1.1 


18.3 


1975/76 


11.8 


28.1 


2.1 


57.9 


0.1 


31.9 


1.0 


19.7 


1976/77 


18.1 


28.7 


2.0 


58.5 


0.1 


25.9 


2.0 


20.5 


1977/73 


30.3 


27.0 


2.1 


55.7 


0.1 


30.6 


J. ^ 


23.4 


1978/79 


32.1 


22.9 


2.1 


48.3 


0.0 


32.5 


4.3 


22.8 


1979/30 


25.1 


25.3 


2.3 


53.1 


0.1 


37.4 


2.3 


21.3 


1980/81 


24.5 


28.8 


2.3 


64.8 


0.1 


41.2 


1.6 


21.3 


1981/32 


26.9 


32.6 


2.3 


75.6 


0.1 


48.2 


3.6 


23.1 


1982/83 


31.5 


31.5 


2.4 


75.3 


0.2 


41.1 


5.3 


24.7 


1983/84 


41.2 


24.8 


2.7 


65.9 


0.1 


38.9 


10.2 


30.2 


1984/85 


38.1 


27.1 


2.6 


70.6 


0.2 


38.8 


11.2 


31.4 


1985/86 


38.6 


26.2 


1 C 
il. J 


66.0 


0.4 


24.8 


8.6 


29.5 


1986/87 


50.9 


24.9 


2.4 


58.6 


0.1 


29.9 


10.9 


31.8 


1987/88 


47.8 
















BRAINS 


















1970/71 


46.1 


40.7 


5.6 


146.1 


0.4 


18. £1 


126.9 


141.8 


1971/72 


32.2 


43.6 


4.3 


189.5 


0.3 


24.2 


136.0 


151.3 


1972/73 


46.6 


38.4 


4.7 


162.0 


0.4 


38.7 


142.3 


153.6 


1973/74 


31.7 


41.6 


4.5 


186.8 


0.2 


40.7 


139.5 


156.2 


1974/75 


21.8 


40.7 


3.7 


150.9 


0.5 


35.9 


100.4 


116.8 


1975/76 


20.5 


42.6 


4.4 


185.4 


0.4 


49.3 


115.6 


133.9 


1976/77 


23.2 


43.3 


4.5 


194.4 


0.3 


50.1 


113.6 


132.5 


1977/78 


35.3 


44.2 


4.7 


205.7 


0.3 


55.6 


116.9 


136.9 


1973/79 


48.9 


43.2 


5.1 


222.1 


0.3 


59.5 


134.6 


155.4 


1979/80 


56.4 


41.8 


5.7 


238.4 


0.3 


71.0 


139.9 


161.5 


1980/81 


62.6 


41.3 


4.8 


198.3 


0.3 


70.7 


124.4 


143.0 


1981/82 


42.5 


43.4 


5.7 


246.6 


0.3 


60.0 


127.6 


153.2 


1982/83 


76.2 


43.2 


5.8 


250.7 


0.4 


53.0 


138.8 


166.9 


1983/84 


107.4 


32.9 


4.2 


137.1 


0.7 


56.6 


120.7 


150.7 


1984/85 


37.9 


43.6 


5.5 


237.7 


0.8 


56.6 


131.9 


164.2 


1985/86 


55.6 


45.4 


6.0 


274.3 


0.7 


38.1 


132.1 


166.5 


1986/87 


126.1 


41.6 


5.7 


235. 4 


0.5 


48.9 


135.0 


169.7 



1987/88 143.3 

NOTES: COARSE GRAINS INCLUDE CORN, SORGHUM, BAR EY, OATS AND RYE. 
SOURCE: OFFICIAL USDA STATISTICS OR ESTIMATES. 
COMMODITY PROGRAMS, FAS, USDA 



29 



U.S. WHEAT, CORN, SORSaUM, BARLE?, OATS, AND RYE SUPPLf/DISTRI BUTTON 
MILLION BUSaeLS/MILLION ACRES 





^ C 0 C I^S 


Hacv6s csd 
Ax ea 


Yield 


ProduccLon 


T nm r> T* r q 

±,U1 U U 1. L 3 


Exports 


r ccvl Uaa^c 


Total 
Domestic US6 


WneaC 
























1976/ 7 7 


666 


70 .9 


in 


's 

. J 


^ > 


1^7 


3 




73U 


7S 


755 


1977/78 


1 , 113 


56 .7 


JU 


7 


2 , 


046 


2 


1 , 


124 




A54 
Oj 7 


1978/ 79 


1 178 


56 .5 


31 


.4 


1. 


776 


2 


1, 


194 


158 


33 7 




924 


52.5 


34 


.2 


2. 


134 


9 


1, 


375 


OO 


1 Oj 


1980/81 


902 


71. 1 


J J 


C 
• J 


2 , 


JO i 


3 


1. 




60 


733 


1981/82 


989 


80.6 




• 3 


^ J 




3 


1 


7 "7 1 
/ / 1 


135 


847 


1982/83 


1 , 159 


77 .9 


J J 


• 3 


z , 


7 A ^ 


g 




509 




7UO 


1983/84 


1 ,515 


61.4 


J 7 




J 


7 n 
-t-ZU 


4 




*. 7 3 

-1-29 


369 


1 111 

X , X X X 


1984/85 


1 , 399 


66 .9 


Jo 


Q 

■ o 


2 . 


C J ~ 


g 


l. 






1 1 SZl 


1985/86 


1 ,425 


64.7 


J / 


• 3 


2 ) 


4ZD 


14 




oil 

7lJ 


325 


1 nits 


1986/87 


1 ,869 








2 , 


1 '^l 
i. J J 


4 


1 

1 J 


1 c\c\ 


400 


1 1 7n 

X , X / IJ 


1987/88 


1 ,757 






















Com 
























\.')lbln 


533 


71.5 


ftft 
OO 


• U 


0 , 


Zc)7 


3 


1 , 


03 / 


3 ,590 


-T , X 


1977/78 


1 136 


70 .6 


y Z 


1 

. i 


0 , 


503 


3 


1. 


909 


717 


^ , ^70 


1973/79 


1 ,436 


71.9 


10 L 


.0 


7 , 


268 




2. 


124 


4 264 


4 ,872 


19 79/80 


1 710 


72.4 


109 


• 5 


7, 


923 




2, 


415 


H , J-r7 


5 1 <IQ 

^ , X07 


1980/81 


2,'o34 


73.0 


7 I 


• u 


3 > 


Ai J 

DJ 7 


1 


2 , 


A Aft 


4,157 


4,875 


1981/82 


1 ,392 


74.6 


IJ O 


Q 
• 7 


3 

°. 


ii7 


J 


2, 


(J iJ 


4,169 


4,966 


1982/83 


2 ,537 


72 . 7 


1 1 1 
1 1 J 


• L 


a 

° ) 


91 ^ 




1 

Ij 


ft ^ 


■ 57 1 


-J , X o 


1983/84 


3 ,523 


51.5 


O i 


1 

• 1 


-4 , 


17^ 

i/ D 


3 


1 


7UZ 


3 ,313 


4 ,793 


1984/85 


1 ,006 


71.9 


1 (\r\ 
iUO 


• / 


7 

' ) 


A7 i 
0/4 


4 


1> 


ft^i ^ 

oO J 


4 , 116 


5 ,170 


1985/86 


1 ,648 


75.1 






a 

0 , 


o ' 
oO J 


3 


1 

J- J 


im 
J J J 


4 , 100 


5 ,230 


1986/87 


3 ,986 








7 

' 1 


^ 7 S 


\ 


1 


OZ J 


4 ,200 


5 350 


1987/88 


4 ,537 














































131 bin 


49 


14.5 


/• □ 

-f 7 






7 T 1 






Z3^ 


449 


459 


1977/7S 


47 


13.8 




• O 




7 Q 1 

/ oi 






223 


436 


447 


1978/ 79 


157 


13.4 


54 


.3 




731 






190 


540 


552 


1979/80 


146 


12 .9 


62 


.6 




307 






330 


-r7'T 




1980/81 


118 


12.5 


46 


. J 




^ 7 J 
3/7 


- 




Z7 J 


336 


347 


1981/82 


57 


13.7 




• J 




a 7 £i 

O /O 


— 




ZoU 


416 


42 7 


1982/33 


247 


14. 1 


' Q 


1 

• 1 




ftl ^ 








-» / J 


4^5 

-TO J 


1983/84 


387 


10 .0 


/. a 


7 




-4oO 






7 A ^ 






1984/85 


209 


15 .3 


30 


• 4- 




OOO 






73 7 
Z? / 


553 


572 


1985/36 


206 


16 .7 


OO 


7 

ml 


1 

i , 


ITT 

liJ 






175 


575 


595 


1986/87 


549 










ft 






Zou 


575 


595 


1 937/33 


544 






















Bar 1 3 V 
























1 Q 7 ri / 7 7 




8 .4 




• o 




1A1 

DO J 


1 1 




OQ 




Tin 
J J IJ 


197 7/78 


126 


9 .7 




• U 




\ 7 j1 
-tZO 


9 




= 7 


177 


333 


1973/ 79 


173 


9 .2 


49 


.2 




455 


10 




26 


217 


384 


197 9/ 80 


228 


7 .5 


50 


.9 




383 


12 




55 


204 


376 


1980/81 


192 


7.3 


49 


. 7 




36 1 


10 




77 


174 


349 


1981/82 


137 


9.0 


52 


.4 




474 


10 




100 


198 


372 


1982/83 


148 


9 .0 


57 


^ 2 




516 


11 




47 


241 


411 


1983/84 


217 


9 .7 


52 


.3 




509 


7 




92 


283 


452 


1984/85 


189 


11. 2 


53 


.4 




599 


10 




77 


304 


474 


1985/36 


247 


11.5 


51 


.0 




589 


8 




25 


300 


470 


1985/87 


350 










600 


5 




45 


300 


475 


1987/88 


435 






















Oacs 
























1976/77 


205 


11.8 


45 


.9 




540 


2 




10 


490 


573 


1977/78 


164 


13.5 


55 


.6 




753 


2 




12 


509 


594 


1973/ 79 


313 


11.1 


52 


.3 




532 


1 




13 


525 


603 


1 a 7Q / a,") 


230 


9 .7 


54 






3Z / 


1 




A 
■+ 


492 


563 


1980/81 


236 


8.7 


53 


.0 




459 


1 




13 


432 


506 




17 7 


9 .4 




> 




^ 1 .'^ 

J vJ 


2 




7 
/ 


434 


530 


1982/83 


152 


10.3 




o 
.o 






4 






441 


526 






Q 1 

7 . i> 


52 


(1 
• 0 




'.7 7 
■All 


30 




o 
Z 


466 


544 








38 








34 




1 


433 


508 


1 -iA =i/ Art 




8.2 


O J 


• o 




J i7 


25 




9 


450 


530 














^ ir^ 


25 




i. 


450 


535 


1 Q A7 / ftA 


2 10 






















1976/ 7 7 


4 


0 .7 


0 1 

Z I 














5 


15 


1.7 / / / / O 




0 .7 




.4 




1 7 








7 


17 


1 073/ 7a 

1. 7 / Of / 7 


/. 

-r 


0.9 


26 


.0 




24 








g 


19 


1 J7 Q/ an 

1.7 / 7/ OU 


9 


0 .9 




7 




7 7 
ZZ 






9 


7 


17 


1930/31 


12 


0.7 


24 


.6 




16 


- 




8 


7 


16 




1. 
-r 


f> 7 


26 


.6 




13 






2 


g 


18 


1982/83 


3 


0.7 


28 


.9 




20 


3 






10 


20 


1983/34 


6 


0.9 


30 


.3 




27 


2 




1 


12 


22 


1984/85 


11 


1.0 


33 


.1 




33 


1 




L 


14 


24 


1935/36 


20 


0.7 


23 


.8 




21 


2 




I 


13 


24 


1936/37 


18 










23 


1 




I 


13 


23 


1987/88 


19 






















Noces: Commodity Years 


As Follows: 


June/ May- 


Wheac, Barley, 


Oacs and 


Rye 


Occooer 


/Sepcemoer-Oora and 



Sorgnum. 
"-" Denotes 2ero. 



Source: World Agricaltural Supply and Demand Estimates No. 193, June 10, 1936 



30 



o 

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X 



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■r- -O 

o 
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■r- O 

CD -(-> 
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O 3 

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s. 
a. 



■o 
>- 



■o 
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01 CO 

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I/) 

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10 
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O 



■•-> 



■o 

1/) 
o 



o 
o 
o 



lo 
o 
o 



f— Tin — -D»'~^:r>^JNjr>o^ * ji:ti — ji,— tiojd 



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.— .— 1— 1— .— I I — . — : — (— I — xir— %jcM.\j:\jn:vj%i:\J^ — cvj 



n r— <— U1 ^ 



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r- ^J CM -f) J3 



\a ''^ cn -o ^r---f>0 7inox)a5'=^r~- — o — '^od'^oj^cvj — >- 

-O -O n sTl 00 -3^ 3 -O _n O n .NJ n X5 CTi X) C^I CM n 'd- r— 00 30 TD 

r-«^-^i— "sjvn'5i-cO'7i<:*-Or— ooo03^0r-i— ^nooaicri:>jm-o — 
r— 1— c^JC^Jc^J?^Jc^JC>Jron?sJC^JCMCon-^^^ooO"v^«d■>5^Lf)<>}-oo^^-^■ 



^r>On^— 1 — a3>jrvJ',or— c\jr^!^ iNjLr)'5j-T>=*r — m -vino y) ~r> CD 
coro.— CMCMCvj.NjcNJCMLntnvjorn! — cvjcvirvj-Njcooooi-n^n^d-ooor--- 

r— 1 .— I — .-M r— C\J NJ ^0 



r^ai-ocooooo<*n-jir— o!r>ooco>^i-<*oo^yDa>cr>Tinvoor^ 
(^-n<nc0i— i>o'-o r>>j .oocyir^oaiCM=d-oncoovjoOi~oc\j:^r-^ ti 
■*=*CTii— rO"^cooi^i— cooo»cvJOCO'Ni'-nocrioc\j<T)'-n.>ji— CO 

CM<NiAjnroco<n"*'^>*(nnn"*Lr>^un=d--Oi-n^ooiX)j*^yD.-n 



■^c\jp«.j^CT>r^'*a^i^^oooo>sO^Tii^o-)oo'd-i— >.o.nocOLntr)cr) 
ooco>— "Jl-inr^ooOcricOi— cvjCMr^o^cvjrvJO^Oi— Ji'^cvjr— lDO 



'^oocor~"ouni^r^c\it— =;^•^,D^ooo■^^O^Oc^Jl— OLDooo^cn 



r— c>j(n>*Lf)or^00CTiOr- ^JrO'*Lr>^o^~oocrlO^— cvjoo^LOvOr-^ 
vO^ovoi^i^-iJvoi^^i — I — r^i — r^r^r>.i — r^r^cococococooococo 

Oi— csjoo<d--n»,oi^cocriOr— cM.~o«*Lni>Dr^cocyiO — cvj'-o^uD'^ 
lOi-Oi^y^i^voi-O O'>o^r~.r^r-~r^r^r^r--i~^r-.i — cococococococo 
cT>cr)jiCTi<T>cricTicrio^cr)CTia^a^o^criCTiCTi<TicriCTio^cTiCT)CT><TiCTiCTi 



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r- . :vj=;l->»r-»-noo 

I O O 3 3 O O O O — ;.NJ NJ 



U3 o 1 — ^ (Ti I — O '-O c\j 



■sJ-^OCvjCVJcnCNJi^i^r^OOOO 
ooi-na>ooi— vOCMcocnco-oo 



ooooc\j«*cTiooCTioa3'*r~ 
LD'^i— coaii — 1 — I — cTiLnm 

.nNO«;J-'^^">l-00r-~Lr)<Ti'* 



co'-nc\jOcT>rocororv4QOLn 



CM |CM I 

^r^oocTiOr— csjn^_nivOr^ 
r-r^r^r^-cooococococococo 

tnior^oocTiOi— cvjoo^un'sO 
r~«r-^r-~r^r~»oococococX50oco 

O^cnCJlCTlCTiCTlOSO^O^CTlCriCTl 



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to 


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■-I CNJI 



31 



HORLD UHEAT AND CDAflSt 6RAINS 
SUPPlV/DDIAND H60/61-I9B6/87 
niLLIDNS OF nETRIC TONS/HECTARES 



WEhT 



COARSE 





AREA 


(lELD 


PRODUCTION 


NORLD 


UTILIZATION 


ENDING 


STOCKS AS 




HARVESTED 






TRADE 1/ 


TOTAL 2/ 


STOCKS 3/ 


1 OF UTIL 


AND COARSE BRAINS 
















mO/bl 


526.6 


1.30 


666.3 


65.9 


672.0 


191.5 


28.5 


196Ut2 


525.8 


1.25 


659.0 


76.8 


685.6 


164.9 


24.0 


1962/ 63 


527.8 


1.35 


711.4 


75.4 


709.6 


166.6 


23.5 


1963/64 


531.2 


1.32 


701.7 


90.0 


702.6 


165.7 


23.6 


;964/65 


537.7 


1.38 


743.5 


87.0 


742.0 


167.2 


22.5 


:965'c6 


535.6 


1.40 


748.0 


103.0 


782.1 


130.4 


16.7 


!^co/c7 


534.7 


1.55 


827.2 


96.0 


799.3 


158.3 


19.8 


1967/66 


545.7 


1.55 


84B.4 


89.9 


630.8 


175.9 


21.2 


196S/69 


549.8 


1.61 


883.5 


62.0 


854.4 


205.0 


24.0 


1969/7(1 


548.2 


1.62 


865.6 


89.1 


902.6 


166.0 


20.8 


1970/71 


538.3 


1.65 


666.6 


101.0 


929.4 


147.5 


15.9 


1971/72 


545.4 


1.80 


980.1 


101.3 


959.7 


167.9 


17.5 


1972/73 


536.8 


1.77 


951.3 


126.2 


9S6.6 


132.4 


13.4 


1973/74 


561.2 


1.36 


1044.5 


134.0 


1040.4 


136.0 


13.1 


1974/75 


562.0 


1.76 


991.4 


129.3 


996.1 


129.6 


13.0 


1975/76 


574.7 


1.74 


1002.8 


141.9 


1001.6 


128.7 


12.6 


1976/77 


577.9 


1.95 


1126.2 


147.1 


1071.9 


183.3 


17.1 


1977/78 


573.5 


1.89 


1085.8 


161.6 


1090.3 


178.3 


16.4 


1978/79 


572.7 


2.10 


1202.0 


164.7 


1177.1 


203.0 


17.2 


1979/80 


571.5 


2.04 


1163.4 


185.2 


1187.7 


183.7 


15.5 


1980-81 


579.4 


2.03 


1175.9 


202.1 


980.0 


168.8 


17.2 


1981/82 


588.8 


2.07 


1218.2 


197.9 


1131.1 


205.9 


17.4 


1982/83 


576.7 


2.18 


1258.2 


166.6 


1219.3 


244.8 


20.1 


1983/84 


563.4 


2.09 


1176.5 


193.8 


1246.0 


173.4 


13.9 


1984/85 


570.4 


2.32 


1324.1 


208.0 


1279.7 


217.5 


17.0 


1985,66 4/ 


572.2 


2.55 


1344.6 


170.9 


1267.1 


295.4 


23.3 


!9S6,87 5/ 


569.0 


2.32 


1J1=».2 


181.1 


1301.5 


313.1 


24.1 


!9o0/61 


202.2 


1.18 


236.4 


41.9 


234.8 


81.8 


34.8 


1961/62 


203.5 


1.10 


224.6 


46.8 


236.4 


70.2 


29.7 


1962/63 


206.9 


1.22 


251.8 


44.3 


248.1 


74.0 


29.8 


1963/64 


206.3 


1.13 


23;. 9 


56.0 


240.0 


67.8 


26.3 


19t>4,65 


215.9 


1.25 


270.4 


52.0 


262.0 


76.2 


29.1 


1965/00 


215.5 


1.22 


263.3 


61.0 


281.6 


55.3 


19.6 


1966-67 


213.6 


1.44 


306.7 


56.0 


279.8 


82.1 


29.4 


1967/66 


219.2 


1.36 


297.6 


51.0 


289.1 


90.6 


31.3 


;9a8/69 


223.9 


1.48 


330.8 


45.0 


306.4 


115.0 


37.5 


1969/70 


217.8 


1.42 


310.0 


50.0 


327.3 


97.8 


29.9 


1970/71 


207.0 


1.52 


313.7 


55.0 


337.2 


74.3 


22.0 


1971/72 


212.9 


1.65 


351.0 


52.0 


344.3 


81.0 


23.5 


1972/73 


211.0 


1.63 


343.4 


67.0 


361.8 


62.6 


17.3 


1973/74 


217.1 


1.72 


373.2 


63.0 


365.6 


70.2 


19.2 


1974/75 


220.1 


1.64 


360.2 


64.3 


366.6 


63.7 


17.4 


1975/7e 


225.4 


1.56 


356.6 


66.7 


356.3 


64.2 


18.0 


1976/77 


233.2 


1.81 


421.4 


63.3 


385.9 


99.B 


25.9 


1977/78 


227.1 


1.69 


384.1 


72.8 


399.4 


84.2 


21.1 


1978/79 


228.9 


1.95 


446.8 


72.0 


430.2 


100.9 


23.4 


1979/80 


228.3 


1.86 


424.5 


36.0 


444.3 


81.0 


16.2 


1980/81 


237.0 


1.67 


445.0 


94.1 


445.8 


78.2 


17.5 


1981/82 


238.7 


1.66 


448.4 


101.3 


441.5 


85.0 


19.3 


1982/83 


237.5 


2.02 


479.1 


98.7 


467.9 


96.3 


20.6 


1983,84 


229.1 


2.14 


490.9 


102.0 


486.4 


100.9 


20.7 


1984/85 


231.3 


2.23 


515.6 


lOo.l 


500.2 


116.4 


23.3 


1985/86 4/ 


229.4 


2.19 


502.! 


85.9 


494.3 


124.3 


25.1 


1986/87 5/ 


228.9 


2.20 


504.4 


91.5 


503.4 


125.3 


24.9 


6RAINS 
















1960/61 


324.4 


1.38 


447.9 


24.0 


437.2 


109.7 


25.1 


1931,62 


322.4 


1.35 


434.2 


30.0 


449.3 


94.7 


21.1 


1962/63 


320.9 


1.43 


459.5 


31.0 


461.5 


92.7 


20.1 


1963/64 


324.9 


1.44 


467.8 


34.0 


462.6 


97.9 


21.2 


1964/65 


321.8 


1.47 


473.1 


35.0 


460.0 


91.0 


16.9 


1965/66 


320.1 


1.51 


484.7 


42.0 


500.5 


75.2 


15.0 


1966/67 


321.0 


1.62 


520.4 


40.0 


519.5 


76.1 


14.7 


1967/66 


326.5 


1.69 


550.3 


39.0 


541.6 


85.3 


15.7 


1968/69 


325.9 


1.70 


552.7 


37.0 


548.0 


90.0 


l6.4 


1969/70 


330.4 


1.74 


575.6 


39.0 


575.4 


90.2 


15.7 


1970/71 


331.3 


1.74 


575.2 


46.0 


592.2 


73.2 


12.4 


1971/72 


332.5 


1.89 


629.1 


49.3 


615.4 


87.0 


14.1 


1972/73 


325.7 


1.87 


607.8 


59.2 


624.8 


49.9 


11.2 


1973/74 


344.1 


1.95 


671.3 


71.0 


674.8 


65.8 


9.7 


1974/75 


341.9 


1.85 


631.2 


65.0 


429.4 


66.0 


10.5 


1975/76 


349.3 


1.85 


646.1 


75.2 


645.3 


44.5 


10.0 


1976/77 


344.7 


2.04 


704.8 


83.9 


686.1 


63.4 


12.2 


1977/78 


346.4 


2.03 


701.6 


88.8 


690.9 


94.1 


13.6 


1978/79 


343.6 


2.20 


755.1 


92.7 


746.9 


102.1 


13.7 


1979/80 


343.2 


2.17 


743.9 


99.2 


743.3 


102.6 


13.8 


1980/81 


342.4 


2.14 


732.9 


108.0 


745.1 


90.4 


12.2 


1981/32 


350.2 


2.20 


769.6 


96.6 


739.6 


120.9 


16.3 


1982/83 


339.2 


2.30 


779.1 


89.9 


751.4 


146.5 


19.8 


1983/84 


334.2 


2.05 


665.5 


91.9 


761.6 


72.5 


9.5 


1964/85 


339.2 


2.38 


606.5 


101.9 


779.5 


101.5 


13.0 


1985/86 4/ 


342.9 


2.46 


842.5 


84.9 


772.8 


171.1 


22.1 


1966/87 5/ 


340.1 


2.40 


814.6 


89.7 


798.2 


187.8 


23.5 



NOTE: 'STOCKS AS PERCENT OF UTILIZATION' REPRESENT THE RATIO OF I1ARKETING YEAR INDIN6 
STOCKS TO TOTAL UTILIZATION. 

1/ TRADE DATA AS EtPRESSED IN THIS TA8LE EICLUOE INTRA-EC TRADE. HHEAT AND COARSE GRAINS 
ARE ON A JULt/JUNE TRADE TEAR THR0U6H 1975/74. FROH 1976/77 ON, THE TRADE «EAR FOR 
COARSE 6RAIHS IS OCIOBER/SEPIEBBER. . 

2/ FOR COUNTRIES FOR MhICH STOCKS DATA ARE NOT AVAILASLE lEICLUNING THE USSRI UTILIZATION 
ESTIHATES REPRESENT 'APPARENT" UIILKAIIOIi. I.E. INCLOSE ANNUAL 5T0CI LEVEl ADJUSTHENIS. 

3/ STOCKS DATA ARE 6ASEC ON AK AS6RE6ATE OF OlFFERIKG LOCAL NARKETINO lEAnS AND SHOULD NOT 
BE CONSTRUED AS REPRESENTING NORLD STOC) LEVELS AT A FliED POINT IN TINE. STOCKS DATA 
ARE NO^ A^ALILABLE FOR ALL COUNTRIES AND ElCLUDE IHOSE SUCH AS THE PEOPLE S REPUBLIC OF 
CHINA AND PARTS OF EASTERN EUROPE. nORLO STOCK LEVELS HAVE BEEN ADJUSTED FOR ESTINATED 
YEAR-TO-iExR CHANGES IN USSR GRAIN STOCKS, BUT DO NOT PURPORT TO INCLUDE THE ABSOLUTE 
LEVEL 0' lSSp grain STOCKS. 

4/ PRELIHINAR'. 

5. PRiJECHOM. 

SOURCES: PREPARED OR ESTIHATEO ON THE BASIS OF OFFICIAL STATISTICS OF FOREIGN GOVERNNENTS, 
OTHER FOREIGN SOURCE HATERIALS, REPORTS OF U.S. AGRICULTURAL ATTACHES AND FOREIGN SERVICE 
OFFICERS, RESULTS OF OF ICE RESEARCH AND RELATED INFORNATION. 



32 



WORLD RICE \i 
SUPPLY/DEHAND 1960/61-1986/8? 
HIlLiONB of HETRIC TONS/HECTARES 





AREA 


YIELD 2/ 


PRODUCTION 




CAL YR 


UTILIZATION 


ENDING 


STOCKS AS 




HARVESTED 




ROUGH 


RILLED 


EXPORTS 


TOTAL 3/ 


STOCKS 4/ 


I OF UTIL 


1960/61 


120.1 


1.95 


233.8 


160.0 


6.5 


160.3 


8.0 


5.0 


1961/62 


115.7 


1.86 


215.7 


147.3 


6.3 


147.7 


7.0 


4.8 


1962/63 


119.6 


1.91 


228.2 


155.2 


7.3 


155.3 


6.9 


4.4 


1963/64 


121.5 


2.05 


24S.4 


169.1 


7.7 


167.2 


8.7 


5.2 


1964/65 


125.3 


2.12 


265.6 


180.8 


8.2 


177.8 


11.3 


6.6 


1965/66 


124.0 


2.05 


254.2 


173.3 


7.9 


173.1 


12.0 


6.9 


1966/67 


125.7 


2.G9 


262. 5 


179.3 


7.8 


180.7 


10.6 


5.9 


1967/68 


127.0 


2.19 


277. B 


109.4 


7.2 


186.6 


13.4 


7.2 


1968/69 


128.7 


2. 23 


287.0 


195.6 


■7 C 
, J 


192.3 


16.7 


8.7 


1969/70 


131.4 




295.9 


201.6 


8.2 


199.7 


18.6 


9.3 


1970/71 


132.7 


2.36 


313.5 


213.6 


8.6 


214.5 


17.7 


8.3 


1971/72 


134.9 


2.35 


317.5 


216.4 


8.7 


218.8 


15.4 


7.0 


1972/73 


132.7 


2.31 


307.2 


209.6 


8.4 


214.6 


10.4 


4.8 


1973/74 


136.6 


2.45 


334.7 


223.0 


7.7 


225.9 


12.5 


5.5 


1974/75 


137.9 


2.41 


332.0 


226. 3 


7.3 


T-i n n 


10.7 


4.7 


1975/76 


142.7 


2.51 


358.6 


243.9 


8.4 


235.3 


19.3 


S.2 


1976/77 


141.4 


2.46 


346.3 


236.9 


10.6 


238.4 


17.8 


7.4 


1977/78 


143.3 




370.0 


251.4 


9.6 


246.4 


22.3 


9.2 


1978/79 


144.1 




387.6 


263.7 


12.0 


258.6 


27.9 


10.8 


1979/80 


141.5 


2.67 


37B.6 


258. 1 


12.7 


262.6 


23.4 


8.9 


1980/81 


144.5 


2.76 


398.9 


271.0 


13.1 


272.3 


22.1 


8.1 


1981/82 


145.2 


2.84 


412.7 


280.6 


11.8 


281.5 


21.3 


7.6 


1982/83 


141.2 


2.97 


419.5 


285.7 


11.9 


289.6 


17.3 


6.0 


1983/84 


144.3 


3.14 


452.7 


308.0 


12.6 


308.1 


17.2 


5.6 


1984/85 


144.1 


3.25 


468.0 


318.6 


11.5 


314.0 


21.9 


7.0 


1985/86 5/ 


143.1 


3.24 


463.9 


315.7 


11. B 


313.6 


24.0 


7.6 


1986/87 6/ 


144.5 


3.26 


471.2 


320.2 


11.9 


318.0 


26.2 


8.2 



NOTE: STOCKS AS PERCENT OF UTILIZATION REPRESENT THE RATION OF MARKETING YEAR ENDING STOCKS TO 
TOTAL UTILIZATION. 

1/ PRODUCTION IS EXPRESSED ON BOTH ROUGH AND HILLED BASES; STOCKS, EXPORTS, AND UTIZIZATION ARE 

EXPRESSED ON A HILLED BASIS. 
2/ YIELDS ARE BASED ON ROUGH PRODUCTION. 

3/ FOR COUNTRIES FOR WHICH STOCKS DATA ARE NOT AVAILABLE UTILIZATION ESTIMATES REPRESENT 
"APPARENT" UTILIZATION, I.E. THEY INCLUDE ANNUAL STOCK LEVEL ADJUSTMENTS. 

4/ STOCKS DATA ARE BASED ON AN AGGREGATE OF DIFFERING MARKET YEARS AND SOULD NOT BE CONSTRUED AS 
REPRESENTING WORLD STOCK LEVELS AT A FIXED POINT IN TIRE. STOCKS DATA ARE NOT AVAILABLE FOR 
ALL COUNTRIES AND EXCLUDE THE USSR, CHINA, NORTH DOREA AND PARTS OF EASTERN EUROPE. 

5/ PRELIMINARY. 

6/ PROJECTION. AREA AND YIELD DOES NOT INCLUDE U.S. FORECAST. 

SOURCES; PREPARED OR ESTIMATED ON THE BASIS OF OFFICIAL STATISTICS OF FOREIGN GOBERNMENTS, OTHER 
FOREIGN SOURCE MATERIALS, REPORTS OF U.S. AGRICULTURAL ATTACHES AND FOREIGN SERVICE OFFICERS, 
RESULTS OF OFFICE RESEARCH, AND RELATED INFORMATION. 

CCMHODIYT PROGRAMS, FAS, USDA GRAIN AND FEED DIVISION 



33 



WORLD TOTAL GRAINS 
SUPPLY/ DEHAND 1 960/fc 1 - 1 966/87 
HiLLIONS OF METRIC TONS/HECTARES 





AREA 


YIELD 


PRODUCTION 


iilORLD 


UTILIZATION 


ENDING 


STOCKS AS 




HARVESTED 






TRADE 1/ 


TOTAL 2/ 


STOCKS 3/ 


1 OF UTIL 


1960/61 


646.7 


1.31 


846.3 


72.4 


832.3 


199.4 


24.0 


1961/62 


641.6 


1.26 


806.3 


83.2 


833. 3 


171.9 


20.6 


1962/63 


647.4 


1.34 


866.5 


82.7 


864.9 


173.5 


20.1 


1963/64 


652.6 


1.33 


870.7 


97.7 


869.9 


174.5 


20.1 


1964/65 


663.0 


1.39 


924.3 


95.3 


919.8 


179.0 


19.5 


1965/66 


659.6 


1.40 


921.3 


110.9 


955.2 


142.4 


14.9 


1966/67 


660.4 


1.52 


1006.4 


103.7 


980.0 


168.9 


17.2 


1967/68 


672.7 


1.54 


1037.8 


97.1 


1017.4 


189.3 


18.6 


1968/69 


678.4 


1.59 


1079.2 


89.5 


1046.7 


221.7 


21.2 


1969/70 


679.6 


1.60 


1087.2 


97.3 


1102.3 


206.6 


18.7 


19/0/71 


671.0 


1.64 


1102.5 


109.6 


1143.8 


165.2 


14.4 


1971/72 


680.2 


1.76 


1196.5 


110.0 


1178.5 


163.3 


15.6 


1972/73 


669.5 


1.73 


1160.9 


134.6 


1201.2 


142.8 


11.9 


1973/74 


697.8 


1.82 


1272.6 


141.6 


1266.3 


146.5 


11.7 


1974/75 


699.8 


1.74 


1217.7 


136.6 


1224.2 


140.4 


11.5 


1975/76 


717.4 


1.74 


1246.7 


150.3 


1236.9 


148.0 


12.0 


1976/77 


719.3 


1.90 


1363.1 


157.7 


1310.4 


201.1 


15.3 


1V77/7S 


716.8 


1.37 


1337.2 


171.2 


1336.7 


201.1 


15.0 


1978/79 


716.8 


2.04 


1465.7 


176.7 


1435.7 


230.9 


16.1 


1979/00 


713.0 


2.00 


1426.6 


197.9 


1450.3 


207.1 


14.3 


1980/81 


723.9 


2.00 


1447.0 


215.2 


1252.3 


190.9 


15.2 


1981/32 


734.0 


2.04 


1498.9 


209.7 


1461.7 


227.2 


15.5 


1962/83 


717.9 


2.15 


1543.9 


200.5 


1507.9 


262.1 


17.4 


1983/84 


707.6 


2.10 


1484.5 


206.4 


1555.1 


190.6 


12.3 


1984/85 


714.3 


2.30 


1642.6 


219.5 


1594.3 


239.8 


15.0 


1985/86 4/ 


715.6 


2.32 


1660. 3 


182.7 


1580.0 


319.4 


20.2 


1936/87 5/ 


673.2 


2.44 


1639.4 


193.0 


1619.5 


339.3 


20.9 



NOTE: "STOCKS AS PERCENT OF UTILIZATION^ REPRESENT THE RATION OF HARKETINS YEAR ENDING 
STOCKS TO TOTAL UTIZIZATIQN. 

1/ TRADE DATA AS EXPRESSED IN THIS TABLE EXUJDE INTRA-EC TRADE. wHEAT AND COARSE BRAINS 
ARE ON A JULY/JUNE BASIS THROUGH 1975/76. FROH r?76/77 ON, THE TRADE YEAR FOR 
COARSE GRAINS IS OCTuSER/SEFTEHBER. 

2/ FOR COUNTRIES FOR WHICH STOCKS DATA ARE NOT AVAILABLE (EXCLUDING THE USSR) UTILIZATION 
ESTIHATES REPRESENT ■^APPARENT" UTILIZATION. I.E. INCLUDE ANNUAL STOCK LEVEL ADJUSTHENTS. 

3/ STOCKS DATA ARE BASED ON AN AGGREGATE OF DIFFERING LOCAL HARKETIN6 YEARS AND SHOULD NOT 
BE CONSTRUED AS REPRESENTING HORiD STOCK LEVELS AT A FBED POINT IN TIHE. STOCKS DATA 
ARE NOT AVAILABLE FOR ALl COUNTRIES AND EXCLUDE THOSE SUCH AS THE PEOPLE S REPUBLIC OF 
CHINA AND PARTS OF EASTERN EUROPE. WORLD STOCK LEVELS HAVE BEEN ADJUSTED FOR ESTIMATED 
f£AR-:G-vtAR CHANGES IN USSR SRAIN STOCKS, BUT DO NOT PURPORT TO INCLUDE THE ABSOLUTE 
LEVEL OF U3S?< GRAIN STOCKS. 

4/ PRELIMINARY. 

5/ PROJECTION. AREA AND YIELD DOES NOT INCLUDE RICE FORECAST FOR U.S. 

SOURCES; PREPARED OR ESTIHATED ON THE BASIS OF OFFICIAL STATISTICS OF FOREIGN GOVENMENTS, 
OTHER i^ORElGN SOURCE HATER! AlS, REPORTS OF U.S. AGRICULTURAL ATTACHES AND FOREIGN SERVICE 
OFFICERS, RESULTS OF OFFICE RESEARCH AND RELATED INFORHATION. 

COHHODITY PROGRAMS, FAS, USDA GRAIN AND FEED DIVISION 



3h 



EXPORT PRICES FOR WHEAT AND CORN 
(BASIS FOB, U.S. DOLLARS PER METRIC TON) 









WHEAT 




CORN 






U.S. 


ARGENTINA 


CANADA 


AUSTRALIA 


U.S. 


ARGENTINA 




GULF 




VANCOUVER 1/ 


STD. WHITE 


GULF 




#2 


H.W. 




#1 cms 12.5 




#3 Yellow 




1981 CY 


177 


189 


212 


175 


134 


13 7 


1982 CY 


162 


166 


187 


160 


110 


109 


1983 CY 


158 


138 


185 


161 


137 


133 


1984 CY 


153 


135 


186 


153 


■138 


132 


1985 CY 


138 


108 


178 


140 


lii 


102 


1985 














May 


137 


112 


180 


145 


118 


109 


June 


134 


107 


178 


141 


117 


111 


July 


130 


107 


171 


134 


114 


112 


Aug 


124 


98 


163 


128 


103 


101 


Sep 


128 


93 


165 


131 


103 


88 


Oct 


130 


92 


173 


134 


100 


90 


Nov 


136 


98 


181 


139 


108 


95 


Dec 


139 


114 


184 


144 


111 


100 


Jan 


133 


108 


182 


140 


109 


100 


Feb 


131 


102 


177 


133 


106 


92 


Mar 


136 


97 


183 


139 


101 


87 


Apr 


125 


96 


182 


109 


102 


86 


May 06 


138 


88 


177 


140 


105 


36 


13 


123 


92 


177 


131 


10 7 


89 


20 


112 


91 


174 


131 


108 


91 


27 


106 


87 


171 


122 


108 


93 


June 3 


111 


86 


157 


118 


108 


89 


10 


110 


86 


152 


115 


108 


89 


1/ In Store 


Export 


Elevators 











35 



SELECTED WORLD GRAIN PRICES, CIF ROTTERDAM 1/ 
Wheat Marketing Years 1970/71 - 1985/86 
(In U.S. dollars per metric ton) 



Wheat Corn 

U.S. No. 2 Dark Canadian U.S. No. 3 
Northern Spring Western Red Yellow 
14% Spring 13 1/2% Corn 



1970/ 71 ( 


Jul V- June) 


73.70 


74.15 2/ 


69.10 


1971/72 ( 


Jul V- June) 


69.75 


72.45 


57.00 


1972/73 ( 


Jul June) 


100.15 


101.95 


7 7. 10 


1973/74 ( 


July-June) 


202.95 


214.40 


132.90 


1974/75 { 


July^June) 


204.25 


209.70 


144.80 


1975/76 ( 


July-June) 


186.86 


195.85 


128.80 


1976/77 ( 


June-May) 


147.05 


149.55 


122.00 


1977/78 ( 


June-May) 


131.30 


140.85 


105.80 


1978/79 ( 


June-May) 


153.70 


165.20 


116.60 


1979/80 ( 


June -May) 


199.65 


N/A 


138.20 


1980/81 ( 


June-Mav) 


218.45 


N/A 


164.15 


1981/82 ( 


June -May) 


193.90 


215.30 


135.40 


1982/83 ( 


June-May) 


178.45 


198.85 


125.25 


1983/84 ( 


June-Mav) 


186 .40 


201.50 


157 .90 


1984/85 ( 


June-Mav) 


175.69 


180.34 


139 .43 


1985/86 ( 


June-Mav) 


166.68 


173 .21 


117 .36 


1985/86 










Dec 

J-/ Nm* W 




177 .67 


N.O. 


119 .25 


Jan 




176.25 


N.Q. 


119.25 


Feb 




174.25 


N.Q. 


116.50 


Mar 




167.50 


N.Q. 


111.65 


Apr 




171.00 


N.Q. 


113.00 


May 06 




164.50 


N.Q. 


114.00 


13 




167.50 


N.Q. 


115.00 


20 




163.00 


N.Q. 


119.00 


27 




156.00 


N.Q. 


119.00 


1986/87 










June 3 




154.00 


N.Q. 


119.00 


10 




146.00 


N.Q. 


118.00 


1/ Asking prices for Rotterdam 30-day 


delivery, as shown by Hambur 


g 


Mercantile Exchange. 








2/ Prioc 


• to September 1971 


prices for 


No. 2 Manitoba Northern. 




}J First 


. two weeks only. 









36 



FOOTNOTES TO WORLD GRAIN SUMMARY AND TRADE TABLES 



1) Includes wheat flour and products. 

2) Argentina, Austrdlia, Canada, South Africa, and Thailand. 

3) Adjusted for transsiii pment tiirough Canadian ports: excludes products otner 
than fiour. 

4) wheat, rye, corn, barley, oats, sorghum, millet, and mixed grains. 

5) Production data includes all harvests occurring wittiin the July-ouiie year, 
indicated, expect that small grain crops from the early harvesting Northern 
Hemisphere areas are "movea foreward'" i.e., tne May 1984 harvests in areas 
sucii as India, f^orth Africa, and southern United States are actually 
included in "1984/85" accounting period which begins July 1, 1:^8^, for 
wneat or October 1, 1984, for coarse grains. 

5) "Bunker weight" basis, not discounted for excess moisture and foreign 
material . 

7) Utilization data are based on an aggregate of differing local marketing 
years. For countries for whicfi stocks data are not available (excluding 
the USSR) utilization estimates represent "apparent" utilization, i.e., 
they are inclusive of annual stock level adjustments. 

8) Stocks data are based on aggregate of differing local marketing years and 
should not be construed as representing world stock level at a fixed point 
in time. Stocks data are not available for all countries and exclude tnose 
such as the People's Republic of China, and parts of Eastern Europe. Tne 
'.;orld stocks level has been adjusted for estimated year-to-year changes in 
the USSR grain stocks, but do not purport to include the entire aosolute 
level of USSR stocks. 

9) Inclusive of Soviet stock changes, see footnote 8. 



This circular was prepared by the Grain and Feed Division, Commodity Programs, 
FAS/USDA, Wasiiington, D.C. 20250. Further information may be obtained uy 
writing the Division or telephoning (20c: j 447-200^. 

Note. The previous report in the series was World Grain Situation/Outlook . 
Foreign Agriculture Circular FG-5-86 May 1986. For further details on the 
world grain production and USSR outlook see "World Crop Production" Foreign 
Agriculture Circular WCP-b-86, June 10, 198b, and "USSR Grain Situation and 
Outlook" Foreign Agriculture Circular SG-b-86, June 1986. 



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United States 
f j A-j ;] Department of 
Agriculture 

Foreign 

Agricultural 

Service 



FG 7-86 
Julv 1986 



Foreign Agriculture Circular 

Grains 

World Grain Situation and Outlook 



There has been a great deal of interest in U.S. /Canadian border trade in 
grain. Recently, for exarnple, com producer representatives in Canada have 
initiated legal steps aimed, apparently, at possible erection of new trade 
barriers against corn entering Canada fron the United States. Shipments of 
other U.S. grains into Canada are, in effect, already banned. This month's 
cover graph provides perspective on grain trade between the United States and 
Canada. 



UNITED STATES/CANADIAN GRAIN TRADE 1/ 



THOUSAND 


MT 


560 






520 






480 






440 






400 






360 






320 










/ 


280 






240 






200 






160 






120 








^ CANADIAN EXPORTS TO 
UNITED STATES 



1981/82 



1982/83 



1983/84 



1984/85 



1985/86 2/ 



U.S.:^:EXPORT§^^ 
■^ANADA-^'i 



1/ Grain includes wheat and coarse grains. Wheat and coarse grain trade on a 
July/June and October/September basis, respectively. 
2/ Through May 1986. 
SOURCE: U.S. census data. 
Supporting data on page 9. 



Approved by the World Agricultural Outlook Board - USDA 



July 15, 1986 



CONTENTS PAGE 



World Grain Outlook 3 

World Wheat Outlook 3 

World Coarse Grain Outlook 6 

World Rice Outlook 8 



TABLES 

United States/Canadian Grain Trade (Supporting Data) 9 

World Summary Tables: Wheat and Coarse Grains, Wheat, 

Coarse Grains, Rice, Corn, Sorghum, and Barley 10-16 

World Wheat and Flour Trade 17 

World Coarse Grain Trade 18 

World Rice Trade 19 

European Community: Grain Supply-Disappearance 20 

Eastern Europe: Grain Supply-Disappearance 21 

USSR and China: Grain Supply-Disappearance 22 

Wheat: Supply-Disappearance for Selected Major Exporters 23 

Coarse Grains: Supply-Disappearance for Selected Major Exporters 24 

U.S.: Wheat and Coarse Grains 25 

U.S.: Wheat, Corn, Sorghum, Barley, Oats and Rye Supply-Disappearance .. 26 

U.S.: Rice Supply-Distribution 27 

World Wheat and Coarse Grain Supply/Demand 28 

World Rice Supply/Demand 29 

World Total Grains Supply/Demand 30 

Weekly Export Prices for Wheat and Corn. U.S., Canada, 

Australia, and Argentina 31 

Selected World Grain Prices, CIF Rotterdam 32 

Selected World Grain Price Graphics - Wheat 33 

Selected World Grain Price Graphics - Corn 34 

Footnotes to World Grain Summary Tables 35 



2 



**WORLD GRAIN SITUATION/OUTLOOK** 



In 1986/87 world wheat and coarse grain supplies, including both production 
and carry-in stocks, are expected to exceed 1.6 billion tons, some 25 percent 
more than forecast world utilization - nearly double the amount that supply 
has usually exceeded use. Crop prospects in several exporting countries 
continue to improve, in part because of good weather, but also because of 
increases in forecast area. Prospects for another large U.S. corn crop will 
likely add to already burdensome global coarse grain stocks. A number of 
non-traditional exporting countries are also expected to have surplus grain 
supplies which could intensify competition for limited import markets. In 
1986/87, the world grain markets will likely be characterized by increasingly 
aggressive export programs, ample domestic supplies, and sluggish import 
demand despite lower world grain prices. 

This month's highlights include: 

A half-million-ton increase in the 1986/87 Canadian wheat export 
forecast because of improved crop prospects and record planted area. 

A decline in the 1986/87 wheat export forecast for the European 
Community (EC) as more wheat moves within the Community, particularly to 
Spain and Denmark. 

Significant declines in the U.S. corn and sorghum export forecasts for 
1985/86 and 1986/87, reflecting increased competition from other 
exporting countries. 

Expanded Chinese corn and sorghum export prospects for 1985/86 and 
1986/87. 

Higher wheat and coarse grain import forecasts for the Soviet Union as 
continuing bad weather results in lower crop prospects. 

Improved 1986 crop prospects in Yugoslavia which may mean increased 
exports to the Soviet Union and other East European countries. 



**WHEAT** 



Prospects for a near record 1986 crop on top of record carryover stocks 
continue to overshadow a somewhat improved 1986/87 wheat trade forecast. 
While the major exporting countries account for the largest part of the 
increase in production from last season, a number of importing countries are 
expecting good crops which may lower their import needs. Crop conditions have 

EY 



^UL 2 4 1986 



3 



deteriorated somewhat in the Soviet Union where the outlook is for lower 
production and marginally higher imports. In sum, the outlook has changed 
very little from last month. Demand for imported wheat is expected to recover 
about 7 percent as significantly lower world wheat prices and a general 
improvement in the global economy encourage importers to expand total 
utilization and cover purchases which were deferred in 1985/86. However, 
competition for the limited expected recovery in demand will probably 
intensify as major exporters attempt to dispose of either large crops or 
carry- in supplies. 



MAJOR IMPORTING COUNTRIES 



Lower world wheat prices and aggressive export programs by the major 
competitor countries should stimulate a pick-up in the demand for imported 
wheat in 1986/87, particularly in countries which delayed purchases in early 
1986 while awaiting lower prices. At 91.5 million tons, the 1986/87 forecast 
is 6 million tons greater than the 1985/86 projection, but remains well below 
the record level of 107 million tons in 1984/85. 



The Soviet Union's wheat crop has been damaged by continued hot, dry weather 
in the Volga Valley and Southern Urals and is forecast at 76 million tons, a 
million tons lower than the June forecast. The smaller crop will likely mean 
increased demand for imported wheat, however, reduced foreign currency 
availabilities may influence wheat purchases. The 1986/87 July-June import 
forecast was increased 1 million tons from a month ago to 18 million tons. 
With lower production and marginally higer imports, Soviet wheat consumption 
is forecast at 95 million tons, the lowest level in almost ten years. 



Brazil i an 1986/87 July-June wheat imports are forecast at 2.8 million tons, 
down 300,000 tons from last month because of improving crop prospects. Record 
wheat area is attributed to favorable guaranteed support prices, poor returns 
from summer crops, and good weather during planting. Last year, the Brazilian 
support program encouraged farmers to increase wheat area which, with 
unusually good weather, produced the record 1985 crop. Wheat imports in 
1985/86 fell to only 2.5 million tons, about half the previous 5-year average. 



Improving crop prospects in Iran and Morocco should increase domestic 
availabilities and lower imported wheat demand by several hundred thousand 
tons. On the other hand, the 1986/87 July-June import forecast for Bangladesh 
is 1.8 million tons, hal f-a-mill ion tons more than in 1985/86. 



4 



MAJOR EXPORTING COUNTRIES 



Canada, Australia, and Argentina 



Canada, Australia, and Argentina are expected to account for 42 percent of 
world wheat trade in 1986/87, down marginally from 1985/86, but up nearly 7 
percent from the previous 5-year average. This month, the wheat export 
forecast for these countries rose slightly to almost 39 million tons because 
of improved prospects for Canadian wheat exports. A record 27-mill ion-ton 
Canadian wheat crop is forecast for 1986, up 1 million tons from last month's 
forecast because of good weather and record area. In addition to the large 
exportable supplies, the Canadians have prepared for another aggressive export 
program by reducing producer payments and adjusting other government, 
grain-related programs. 



The weather-damaged 1985 Argentine wheat crop has limited 1985/86 December- 
November exports to 4.2 million tons, down more than 5 million tons from 
1984/85. In 1986, a better crop of nearly 10 million tons is expected which 
should increase supplies of exportable wheat and allow Argentine marketing 
year exports to approach 5.1 million tons. With larger availabilities in 
1986/87, Argentina can be expected to enter the global wheat market in 
December with extremely competitive prices. 



On the other hand, 1986 Australian production is expected to decline to 15.3 
million tons. The aggressive 1985/86 July-June Australian wheat export 
program has resulted in expected record exports of 15.7 million tons and a 
significant drawdown in carry-over stocks. After slowing in April, the pace 
of Australian exports recovered markedly in May; a record 2 million tons was 
reported. 



European Community 



In the European Community, lower crop prospects in Spain and Denmark are 
expected to result in increased demand for EC wheat by these two countries. 
The reduced availabilities in Spain represent the second monthly decline in 
the crop estimate which is now forecast at 4.1 million tons as compared to 5.3 
million tons in 1985. Spanish imports of EC wheat were already expected to 
increase as EC feed wheat is substituted for corn in animal feeds. The EC 
July-June wheat export forecast for 1986/87 was lowered 500,000 tons to 16 
million tons because of significantly heavier EC intra- trade and prospects for 
increasingly aggressive competitor export programs. 



United States 



The 1986/87 wheat export forecast is 30.5 million tons, about 5 million tons 
higher than in 1985/86, Dut still well oelow tne record 1981/82 level of 49 
million tons. Rain in some areas of the soft red winter proauction may cause 
lodging and quality problems, Dut as a whole the U.S. wheat narvest is well 
under way with few problems to report. The 1986 crop is forecast at nearly 59 
million tons, up slightly from last month. Lower prices and the Export 
Enhancement Program have stimulated export sales as seen in tne June total 
commitments of nearly 8 million tons (5 MMT last year). The most notable 
increase has been to EEP-targeted, North African countries where total 
commitments for June are nearly douDle the level of last year. 



**COARSE GRAINS** 



Competition in world coarse grain markets continues to intensify as record 
supplies from back-to-back bumper crops and record carry-in stocks are more 
than adequate for the relatively weak import demand forecast for 1986/87. 
World coarse grain production has risen throughout the 1980's, up nearly 85 
million tons or about 15 percent, whereas utilization has increasea only about 
5 percent. That widening gap between supply and demand has resulted in a 
dramatic increase in 1986/87 ending-stocks wnich are forecast at nearly 200 
million tons or about a quarter of world use. Exportable supplies have surged 
in the traditional coarse grain exporting countries, as well as, several of 
the smaller, non-traditional exporters such as China, New Zealand, and 
Sweden. This year, these exporters, whether in an attempt to dispose of 
supplies prior to the lower 1986/87 U.S. prices or as a general policy change, 
have aggressively increased their sales, displacing traditional volumes of 
U.S. coarse grains. 



MAJOR IMPORTING COUNTRIES 

For 1986/87, the only major, early-season development is a snarp increase in 
Spani sh coarse grain import prospects as hot, dry weather continues to 
severely damage the development of the barley and small grain crops. The 
Spanish barley production estimate was cut 600,000 tons to 7 million tons, 
down markedly from last year's record harvest. Prior to EC accession, Spain 
would have covered coarse grain shortfalls with U.S. corn. But in 198b/87 the 
expected decline will most likely be met with increased imports of EC barley 
and feed wheat. 



6 



As the 1985/86 October-September coarse grain marketing year enters its last 
quarter, the displacement of U.S. coarse grains has accelerated in many 
markets, illustrated particularly by the situations in Korea and Japan. 
Japanese imports of Chinese and South African corn for the October-May period 
are running more than double what they were for the same period in 1984/85, 
while sorghum imports from China are three times greater than last year. In 
Korea, a market which bought nearly all U.S. corn prior to 1983, U.S. corn has 
been displaced by Thai as well as Chinese imports. With large crops expected 
in China, South Africa, and Thailand in 1986, these major exporters will 
likely continue their aggressive programs to key U.S., Asian markets. 



Brazil i an imports of U.S. corn picked up slightly in June after coming to a 
virtual halt in April and May. Nonetheless, the Brazilian October-September 
1985/86 corn import forecast was lowered slightly to 2 million tons. In 
1986/87, however, Brazil is expected to have a more normal crop and imports 
are forecast at only hal f-a-mill ion tons. 



The 1985/86 October-September coarse grain import forecasts for Yugoslavia and 
Poland have been lowered to reflect a slower than expected pace of imports. 
Apparently domestic supplies were less weather-damaged than previously 
expected and a foreign currency shortage has limited imports and lowered 
domestic consumption. 



MAJOR EXPORTING COUNTRIES 



In 1985/86, foreign corn exporting countries such as China, Thailand, and 
South Africa have increasingly played a more important part in the world corn 
market, sustaining aggressive export programs and increasing competition in 
major Asian markets. Argentina, with record corn production in 1985, 
increased exports to traditional U.S. markets in Latin American and Europe. 



The forecast for Chinese 1985/86 October-September corn exports was increased 
to 5.5 million tons, up 1 million tons from last month. China has continued 
an unexpectedly strong pace of corn shipments through the first half of 
1985/86, moving more than 2 million tons into Japan and Korea and reportedly 
at least a million tons into the Soviet Union. In 1986/87, Chinese corn 
production is expected to reach 72 million tons, up 12 percent from 1985, 
which will likely stimulate another aggressive export program in Asia and to 
the Soviet Union. The Chinese 1986/87 export forecast was increased a million 
tons to 5 million tons. 



7 



Improved crop prospects, large carry- in stocks, and lower domestic demand will 
likely mean larger exportable supplies of Yugoslavian corn in 1986/87. In 
1985/86, Yugoslavian corn exports are expected to reach 1.2 million tons with 
an unusually large amount to the EC. Yugoslavia previously exported most oi^ 
it surplus corn to other East European countries and the Soviet Union, often 
with barter agreements which helped to conserve hard currency. 

UNITED STATES 

The 1985/86 and 1986/87 U.S. corn and sorghum export forecasts have been cut 
significantly as increased competition in major Asian markets and Latin 
American continues to displace U.S. coarse grains, despite expectations for 
lower U.S. grain prices. Aggressive export programs are expected to continue 
into 1986/87 among many exporting countries expecting large harvests. The 
U.S. 1986/87 corn export forecast was lowered almost 2 million tons to 39.4 
million tons reflecting this increased competition, as well as large 
exportable supplies in traditional exporters such as Argentina and Thailand. 
The U.S. 1986/87 sorghum export forecast was also lowered, primarily because 
of increased export expectations for Chinese sorghum. 

The U.S. 1985/86 corn export forecast was cut about 2 million tons to 32.4 
million tons, about 14 million tons or 30 percent below 1984/85. The pace of 
shipments, particularly to Korea, Japan, and Brazil continues to lag sharply. 
Shipments to Korea which have averaged 150,000 tons per month throughout most 
of the year dropped suddenly to zero in May while deliveries to Japan, which 
have rarely fallen below 600,000 tons per month, fell to only 430,000 tons. 
Liftings of U.S. sorghum have also declined significantly as shipments to 
major markets such as Japan dropped to zero in May. 



**RICE** 



The estimate for world rice trade in CY 1986 was again increased this month to 
reflect the large purchases by Brazil and the near record export pace of 
Thailand. World trade for CY 1986 is now estimated at 12.2 million tons, 
compared with 11.5 million tons in 1985. The 700,000 ton increase over the 
1985 trade level is due almost entirely to the increase in imports by Brazil 
and Peru. The trade forecast for CY 1987 is tentatively set at 11.8 million 
tons. 

The estimate for world rice production in 1985/86 remains essentially the same 
this month. The forecast for the 1986/87 crop is 465 million tons, up 
slightly from this year's crop, and another record. Rice stocks are expected 
to decrease only slightly from the current record levels, due to an increase 
in world utilization. 



3 



MAJOR IMPORTING COUNTRIES 



The import estimate for Brazil was increased to 1.0 million tons for CY 1986, 
reflecting the recent large purchases. Though production for the 1986 crop is 
estimated to be higher than that for 1985, Brazil is apparently buying rice to 
ensure the success of domestic retail price controls. Imports by Peru in CY 
1986 are now expected to reach 260,000 tons, as the Peruvian buying agency 
(ECASA) disclosed intentions of importing rice to begin covering substantial 
CY 1987 needs. The crop in Peru is down for the second consecutive year. 

MAJOR EXPORTING COUNTRIES 



The export estimate for Thailand was increased to 4.2 million tons, a level 
surpassed only by the 4.5 million tons exported in 1984. Thai exports through 
June were over 10% above shipments for the same period one year ago; average 
exports of only 300,000 tons per month to traditional markets for the 
remainder of the year will be enough to reach the new estimate. Exports by 
Pakistan are now expected to reach 1.0 million tons in CY 1986. Recent sales 
to Brazil added to the 
provide the increase. 



strong performance in the first half of the year 



UNITED STATES 

The U.S. export estimate for the 1985/86 market year remains at 1.77 million 

tons. Total U.S. commitments as of July 3 were 1.79 million tons. The CY 

1986 export estimate is 2.2 million tons, while the market year 1986/87 
forecast increased to 2.6 million tons due to recent large sales to Brazil and 

Western Europe. Exports in CY 1987 are also forecast to reach 2.6 million 
tons. 



UNITED STATES/CANADIAN GRAIN TRADE 1/ 
SUPPORTING DATA FOR THE COYER STORY 



TRADE YEAR 



CANADIAN EXPORTS 
TO UNITED STATES 



U.S. EXPORTS 
TO CANADA 



1981/82 
1982/83 
1983/84 
1984/85 
1985/86 2/ 



THOUSAND METRIC TON 



324 
251 
169 
323 
135 



285 
494 
309 
338 
512 



1/ Grain included wheat and coarse grains. Wheat and coarse grain trade on a 

July/June and October/September year, respectively. 
2/ Through May 1986. 
SOURCE: U.S. Census data. 



9 



TOTAL WHEAT AND COARSE BRAINS 
TRADE YEARS ♦ 1981/82 - 1985/86 
IN niLLIONS OF HETRIC TONS) 



1982/83 1983/84 1984/85 1985/86 1986/87 1986/87 

JUNll JUL14 

EXPORTS 1) 

SELECTED EXPORTERS 61.3 67.2 66.8 65.3 63.1 &3.8 

MEST EUROPE 22.7 22.3 30.3 25.9 25.9 25.4 

USSR 0.5 0.5 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 

OTHERS 10.1 9.1 16.2 14.4 12.2 14.4 



TOTAL NON-US 94.6 99.2 114.3 106.6 102.2 104.6 



U.S. 3) 93.9 94.7 93.5 62.0 79.5 77.1 



NOfiLD TOTAL 188.6 193.8 207.9 168.5 181.7 181.7 
IMPORTS 

WEST EUROPE 20.9 19.2 14.5 9.9 ?.8 9.8 

USSR 31.2 32.4 55.4 30.0 32.0 34.0 

JAPAN 24.5 26.6 26.3 26.4 27.6 27.6 

EAST EUROPE 9.4 8.0 6.0 9.4 6.6 6.3 

CHINA 15.5 9.8 7.5 6.8 7.5 7.5 

OTHERS 87.1 97.8 98.1 86.1 98.2 96.5 



NORLD TOTAL 188.6 193.8 207.9 168.5 181.7 181.7 
PRODUCTION 4) 5) 

SELECTED EXPORTERS 107.0 118.4 115.6 113.5 114.0 115.0 

NEST EUROPE 161.9 154.1 191.1 176.5 176.2 172.2 

USSR 6) 172.0 178.0 159.0 177.0 173.0 167.0 

EAST EUROPE 106.7 102.5 114.9 106.3 107.5 108.8 

CHINA 150.0 173.0 184.1 169.7 181.8 181.1 

OTHERS 233.8 246.5 252.1 262.2 273.0 274.2 



TOTAL NON-US 931.4 972.5 1016.7 1005.2 1025.3 1018.2 



U.S. 326.0 203.0 308.3 340.3 294.0 304.0 



NORLD TOTAL 1257.4 1175.4 1325.0 1345.5 1319.2 1322.3 



UTILIZATION 4) 7) 

NEST EUROPE 157.4 158.4 162.0 162. B 160.1 159.7 

USSR 6) 204.0 206.5 207.0 204.0 203.0 202.0 

CHINA 165.6 182.4 185.9 170.5 185.1 183.4 

OTHERS 499.9 518.6 530.2 533.1 551.9 549.3 



TOTAL NON-US 1026.9 1066.0 1085.1 1070.4 1100.0 1094.3 



U.S. 192.1 180.3 195.2 199.2 201.6 199.2 



NORLD TOTAL 1219.0 1246.3 1280.2 1269.5 1301.5 1293.6 
END STOCKS 4) 8) 

TOTAL F0REI6N 9) 96.2 97.4 123.4 118.0 122.0 117.7 

USSR: STKS CH6 -1.0 3.0 6.0 0.0 0.0 -3.0 

U.S. 149,9 77.9 96.8 178.1 191.1 207.2 



WRLD TOTAL 246.1 175.4 220.1 296.1 313.1 324.9 



♦ : COMBINATION OF JULY/JUNE TRADE YEARS FOR HHEAT AND OCTOBER/SEF^TEHBER 
TRADE YEARS FOR COARSE BRAINS. 

MOTE: FOOTNOTES 1 THROUGH 9 APPEAR ON LAST PAGE Of CIRCULAR. 

SOURCE: PREPARED OR ESTIMATED ON THE BASIS OF OFFICIAL STATISTICS OF FO.REIGN 
GOVERNMENTS, OTHER FOREIGN SOURCE MATERIALS, REPORTS OF U.S. AGRICULTURA.'. ATTACHES AND 
FOREIGN SERVICE OFFICERS, RESULTS OF OFFICE RESEARCH, AND RELATED INFORMATION. 

COWIODITY PROGRAMS, FAS, USDA 



10 



HORLD WHEAT AND WHEAT FLOUR SliD TABLE 
JULY/JUNE YEARS 1982/83 - 1986/87 
(IN MILLIONS OF METRIC TONS) 





1982/83 


1983/84 


1984/85 


1985/86 


1986/87 


1986/87 












JUNU 


JUL14 


EXPORTS 1) 














LflNftUH 






1Q A 

17 1 T 


1 / a U 


iQ n 

17aV 


17. J 


AllCTDAI TA 

Hub 1 KftLlH 


□ •1 


1 V. 0 


IS \ 
IJt 0 


IS 7 

IJ. / 


1 ^ . J 


14 S 


ARGENTINA 


7.5 


9.7 


8.0 


6.1 


4.6 


4.6 


SUBTOTAL 


37.0 


42.0 


42.7 


38.8 


38.1 


38.6 


EC- 12 


16.3 


15.5 


18.5 


15.5 


16.5 


16.0 


USSR 


0.5 


0.5 


1.0 


1.0 


1.0 


1.0 


OTHERS 


5.0 


5.1 


6.6 


5.2 


5.3 


5.4 


lUiHL nun uo 


Mm a 


A7 1 
00. 1 


AC n 

Do. D 


Aft ^ 
OV. J 


A1 ft 
d1 . U 


Al ft 
01 . U 




07.7 


TP Q 
Oo. 7 


Tfl 1 
Oo. 1 


9'; ft 
zj. u 


Tft S 
OU. J 


Tft S 
Ov. J 


HUnLU 1 U 1 HL 


ID. / 


109 I'l 

1 VZ . V 


tOA (? 

1 VO. 7 


OJ. J 


91 'i 
7 1 . J 


91 S 

7l. J 


IMPORTS 














EC-12 


4.& 


4.5 


3.0 


2.9 


2.6 


2.6 


USSR 


20.2 


20.5 


28.1 


16.0 


17.0 


18.0 


JAPAN 


5.B 


5.9 


5.6 


5.4 


5.5 


5.5 


CiCTCRM PllPnPC 
CHsicnn cunurc 




"K R 

O.D 


9 A 

Z. 0 


\ A 
0.0 


O.J 


\ 9 

0. z 


LninH 


10. V 


9 A 

7.0 


7 J 


A T 

0.0 


7 ft 


7 ft 

/ a V 


u 1 ncns 




•i7 7 


Afl 9 
Ov . Z 


SI j 

01 . 


SS 9 

Jo. 7 


Ju. 0 


unRl n THT&I 

HUnLU 1 U 1 ML 


9R 7 


109 0 


tOA 9 

1 vO. 7 


OJ . J 


91 S 

7 1 a J 


91 S 

7 1 . J 


pRfiniirTinN 














Lnnriyri 


Law 1 


9A S 


91 9 

Z i . z 


9X 9 

ZO. 7 


9A f) 

ZO . V 


77 A 


AllCTDAI TA 
nUw 1 nnL I n 


0.7 


99 fl 


Ifi 7 


1A 1 

10. 1 


IS 

1 J . 0 


IS 


ARGENTINA 


15.0 


12.8 


13.2 


8.5 


9.6 


9.6 


EC-12 


64.7 


63.8 


82.8 


71.5 


75.4 


72.9 


USSR 6) 


86.0 


79.0 


73.0 


83.0 


77.0 


76.0 


EASTERN EUROPE 


34.7 


35.4 


42.0 


37.5 


38.6 


39.1 


CHINA 


68.4 


81.4 


87.8 


85.3 


87.5 


87.5 


INDIA 


37.5 


42.8 


45.5 


44.2 


47.0 


47.0 


OTHERS 


62.0 


61.4 


60.8 


66.4 


69.5 


70.6 


lUinL nun US 


TUO. 7 


17"; 1 




TOO. T 


44 J. D 


44 J. 1 


II C 


/J.O 


0 

OJ. 7 


7rt A 
/U. 0 


AA ft 
00. V 


SB A 
JD. 0 


SQ 9 
JO. 7 


WORLD TOTAL 


479.1 


490.9 


515.6 


502.4 


504.4 


504.0 


UTILIZATION 7) 














U.S. 


24.7 


30.2 


31.4 


28.6 


31aB 


29.3 


USSR 6) 


105.7 


97.0 


96.1 


98.0 


93.0 


95.0 


CHINA 


81.4 


91.0 


95.2 


91.6 


94.5 


94.5 


flTUCDC 

U IncKb 


zgo. 1 


ZOO. 1 


Z// 


Z/0.0 


zon.U 


ZOn.o 


TnTfli unu.ii c 










4/1. J 


477 D 


NORLD TOTAL 


467.9 


486.4 


500.2 


494.4 


503.4 


503.1 


END STOCKS 8) 














TOTAL FOREIGN 9) 


55.0 


62.8 


77.6 


72.7 


77.5 


73.7 


USSR: STKS CHG 


0.0 


2.0 


4.0 


0.0 


0.0 


-2.0 


U.S. 


41.2 


38.1 


38.8 


51.7 


47.8 


51.6 


HORLD TOTAL 


96.3 


100.9 


116.4 


124.4 


125.3 


125.3 



NOTE: FOOTNOTES 1 THROUGH 9 APPEAR ON LAST PAGE OF CIRCULAR. 

SOURCE: PREPARED OR ESTIMATED ON THE BASIS OF OFFICIAL STATISTICS OF FOR 
OTHER FOREIGN SOURCE MATERIALS, REPORTS OF U.S. AGRICULTURAL ATTACHES AN 
RESULTS OF OFFICE RESEARCH, AND RELATED INFORMATION. 

COMMODITY PROGRAMS, FAS, USDA 



11 



WORLD COARSE GRAINS SID TABLE 
OCTOBER/SEPTEHBER YEARS 1982/83 - 1986/87 
(IN HILLIONS OF HETRIC TONS) 





1982/83 


1983/84 


1984/85 


1985/86 


1986/87 


1986/87 












JUnl 1 


111* 1 ji 
JUl14 


EXPORTS 














CANADA 

u nil ny n 


7 1 

1 m k 


U.J 


J. 0 


T.I 


J.V 




AUSTRALIA 


1.0 


5.5 


6.4 


5.3 


4.0 


4.0 


ARGENTINA 


11.6 


10.9 


10.6 


11.9 


10.4 


10.4 


SOUTH AFRICA 


2.3 


0.1 


0.5 


1.1 


2.0 


2.0 


THAU ANO 
1 nn 1 i_niii/ 




J a 0 


'K A 
0. *t 


%>«D 


J.O 


0.6 


SUBTOTAL 




91 9 


1 

L.n » 1 


ZO. J 






UEST EUROPE 


5 2 






0 9 

7.Z 


OmV 




CHINA 


0.1 


0.5 


5.5 


6.3 


4.2 


5.5 


OTHERS 


O. X 


S A 




4. 1 


J A 

4.0 


1 n 

4.9 


TOTAL NON-U. S. 


35.9 


36.1 


45.5 


46.1 


41.2 


43a 6 


U.S. 3) 


54.0 


55.8 


55.4 


37.0 


49.0 


46a6 


HORLD TOTAL 


89.9 


91.9 


101.0 


83.0 


90.2 


90.2 


IMPORTS 














NEST EUROPE 


15.6 


13.9 


10.9 


6.2 


6.4 


6.4 


USSR 


11. 0 


It 9 

1 i . 7 


97 ^ 

LI m 0 


\A A 


1 J. V 


lOiU 


JAPAN 


18.7 


20.7 


20.7 


21.0 


22.1 


22.1 


EASTERN EUROPE 


4.9 


4.2 


3.4 


5.9 


3.2 


3.2 


CHINA 


2.5 


0.2 


0.1 


0.5 


0.5 


0.5 


OTHERS 


37.1 


40.9 


38.5 


35.5 


43.1 


42.0 


HORLD TOTAL 


89.9 


91.9 


101.0 


83.0 


90.2 


90.2 


PRODUCTION 5) 


r============ 


=============r=r== 


================== 


================= 


===========.========= 


===»====*=== 


CANADA 


26.5 


20.9 


22.0 


24.7 


23.3 


23.5 


AUSTRALIA 


3.9 


9.4 


8.6 


7.8 


6.9 


6.9 


ARGENTINA 


17.8 


17.4 


18.6 


18.3 


17.7 


17.7 


SniiTH AFRICA 


4 5 




fl 7 


fl fl 


7.7 


7.7 


THAILAND 


3.7 


4.3 


4.7 


5.5 


5.2 


5.0 


UFm FIISnPF 

riuu 1 uur\ur u 


70. □ 


OA 1 

Do. i 


I0\ 7 


1 Vv . 7 


9A A 

70 a 0 


7 J. V 


USSR 6) 


86.0 


99.0 


86.0 


94.0 


96.0 


91.0 


P&CT FiiRnpP 

unO 1 CUfMJrC 




0/ ■ 1 


79 Q 

/ 1. 7 


Afl fl 


Afl Q 

00. 7 


A? 7 

07 . / 


CHINA 


81.6 


91.6 


96.2 


84.4 


94.3 


93.6 




1 T7 9 

10/ . 7 


; to. □ 




fiS 7 


1 Aft 7 

iOUa / 


1 Aft n 


TOTAL NON-US 


527.5 


547.4 


571.7 


568.8 


579.5 


573.1 


U.S. 


250.7 


137.1 


237.7 


274.3 


235.4 


245.1 




77B 9 


Out « J 


Ov7 . 0 




flt4 R 


flifl 9 


IITTI I7fiTinW 7) 














U.S. 


167.4 


150.1 


163.8 


170.6 


169.7 


170aO 






lU7. J 


1 1 v« 7 






Ift7 ft 

i V/ a V 


CHINA 


84.2 


91.4 


90.7 


78.9 


90.6 


88.9 


OTHERS 


401.2 


408.9 


414.7 


419.6 


427.9 


424.7 


TOTAL NON-U. S. 


583.7 


609.8 


616.3 


604.5 


628.4 


620.5 


NORLD TOTAL 


751.1 


759.9 


780.1 


775.1 


798.2 


790.5 


END STOCKS 8) 














TOTAL FOREIGN 


41.1 


34.6 


45.8 


45.4 


44.5 


44.0 


USSR: STKS CHG 


-1.0 


1.0 


2.0 


0.0 


0.0 


-l.O 


U.S. 


108.7 


39.9 


58.0 


126.4 


143.3 


155.6 


HORLD TOTAL 


149.8 


74.5 


103.7 


171.8 


187.8 


199.3 

















NOTE: FOOTNOTES 1 THROUGH 9 APPEAR ON LAST PAGE OF CIRCULAR. 

SOURCE: PREPARED OR ESTIMATED ON THE BASIS OF OFFICIAL STATISTICS OF FOREIGN GOVERNMENTS, OTHER 
FOREIGN SOURCE MATERIALS, REPORTS OF U.S. AGRICULTURAL ATTACHES AND FOREIGN SERVICE OFFICERS, 



12 



WORLD RICE S!.D TABLE 
TRADE, PRODUCTION, UTILIZATION AND STOCKS 11 
(IN MILLIONS OF METRIC TONS' 





CAL YR 


CAL YR 


CAL YR 


CAL YR 


CAL1987 




1983 


1984 


1985 


1986 


JUL14 


EXPORTS 2) 












DunnH 


U. o 


ft 7 


U.J 


ft L 




CHINA 


0.6 


1.2 


1.0 


0.9 


0.9 


JAPAN 


0.3 


0.1 


0.0 


V. V 


0.0 


PAKISTAN 


1.3 


l.l 


1.0 


1.0 


0.9 


TUATI ANA 
IflnlLnnu 










A ri 
t » u 


OTHERS 


2.9 


2.9 


3.1 


3.4 


2.9 


TOTAL NON-U,S. 


9.6 


10.4 


9.6 


10.1 


9.3 


U.S. 


2.3 


2.1 


1.9 


2.2 


2.6 


HORLD TOTAL 


11.9 


12.6 


11.5 


12.3 


11.9 


IMPORTS 2) 












EC-12 


1.0 


1.3 


1.2 


1.3 


1.2 


INDONESIA 


1.2 


0.4 


.0 


.0 


.0 


IRAN 


0.7 


0.7 


0.6 


A fl 


U . D 


IRAQ 


0.5 


0.5 


0.5 


0.6 


O.o 


KOREA, REP, 


0.2 


.0 


0.0 


A A 




NIGERIA 


0.7 


0.3 


0.4 


0.1 


0.2 


SAUDI ARABIA 


0.5 


0.5 


0.5 


0.5 


0.5 


OTHERS 


7.1 


8.7 


8.2 


9.0 


8.6 


NORLD TOTAL 


11.9 

============ 


12.6 


11.5 


12.3 


11.9 


PRODUCTION 3) 


19S2/B3 


1933/84 


1984/85 


=============== 

1985/86 


==========»=====« 

1986/87 


ARGENTINA 


0.3 


0.5 


0.4 


0.4 


0.4 


AUSTRALIA 


0.5 


0.6 


0.9 


0.7 


0.6 


BANGLADESH 


21.3 


21.8 


21.9 


22.8 


23.4 


BRAZIL 


7.3 


9.0 


9.0 


9.3 


9.5 


BURMA 


14.4 


14.4 


14.8 


14.9 


15.0 


CHINA 


161.2 


168.9 


178.3 


168.5 


174.0 


EC-12 


1.6 


1.5 


1.7 


1.9 


1.9 


INDIA 


70.7 


90.2 


86.0 


91.5 


90.0 


INDONESIA 


33.6 


35.3 


38. 1 


39.0 


39.4 


JAPAN 


12.8 


13.0 


14.8 


14.6 


13.9 


KOREA, REP. 


7.3 


7.i 


8.0 


7.9 


7.7 


PAKISTAN 


5.2 


5.0 


5.0 


4.4 


5.1 


THAILAND 


16.9 


19.5 


18.3 


19.8 


19.5 


OTHERS 


58.9 


61.0 


62.1 


63,0 


64.5 


TOTAL HON-US 


412.5 


448.2 


461.2 


458.5 


464.9 


U.S. 


7.0 


4.5 


6.3 


6.2 


6.1 


HORLD TOTAL 


419.5 


452.7 


467.5 


464.7 


471.0 


UTILIZATION 71 












BANGLADESH 


14.6 


14.9 


14.9 


15.4 


15.8 


CHINA 


112.4 


117.1 


123.9 


117.2 


121.1 


INDIA 


48.5 


58.2 


57.0 


60.3 


60.8 


INDONESIA 


23.7 


25.3 


25.2 


26.2 


26.8 


KOREA, REP. 


5.3 


5.5 


5.5 


5.3 


5.6 


OTHERS 


83.2 


85.2 


85.5 


87.2 


89.3 


TOTAL NON-U. S. 


267.6 


306.3 


311.9 


312.1 


319.4 


U.S. 


2.0 


1.8 


1.9 


1.9 


2.0 


flORLD TOTAL 


289. 6 


308.1 


313.8 


314.0 


321.4 


END STOCKS 4; 












□ nn n u L. u n 


0 ^ 


V/. 1 


U.J 




V. 0 


INDIA 


3.5 


6.0 


7.5 


8.0 


7.0 


1 nuunLj i H 


1 fl 

1 . o 


ImO 






z« J 


KOREA. REP. 


1.5 


1.2 


1.4 


1.2 


1.1 


1 nn ILMPll/ 


U. 0 


1 ■ 1 


t A 


1.6 




OTHERS 




5.7 


b.b 


7.4 


7.8 


TOTAL FOREIGN 


15.0 


15.8 


19.7 


21.2 


20.6 


U.S. 


2.3 


1.5 


2.0 


2.8 


2.0 


WORLD TOTAL 


17.3 


17.2 


21.7 


24.0 


23.3 



1) PRODUCTION IS 0« ROUGH BASIS; TRADE, UTILIZATION AND STOCKS ARE ON HILLED BASIS. 
21 TRADE DATA ON CALENDAR YEAR BASIS. 

31 THE HORLD RICE HARVEST STRETCHES OVER 6-8 MONTHS. THUS, 1978/79 PRODUCTION REPRESENTS THE CROP HARVESTED IN LATE 1978 
AND EARLY 1979 IN THE NORTHERN HEMISPHERE AND THE CROP HARVESTED IN EARLY 1979 IN THE SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE. 

4) STOCKS DATA ARE BASED ON AN AG8REGATE0F DIFFERENT LOCAL MARKETING YEARS AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSTRUED AS REPRESENTING HORLD 
STOCK LEVELS AT A FIXED POINTIN TIME. STOCKS DATA ARE NOT AVAILABLE FOR ALL COUNTRIES AND EXCLUDE THOSE SUCH AS 
NORTH KOREA AND CHINA. 

SOURCE: PREPARED OR ESTIMATED ON THE BASIS OF OFFICIAL STATISTICS OF FOREIGN GOVERNMENTS, OTHER FOREIGN SOURCE MATERIALS, 
MATERIALS, REPORTS OF U.S. AGRICULTURAL ATTACHES AND FOREIGN SERVICE OFFICERS, RESULTS OF OFFICE RESEARCH, AND RELATED INFORMATION. 



13 



WORLD CORN StiD TABLE 
OCTOBER /SEPTEMBER YEARS 1982/83 - 1986/87 
(IN MILLIONS OF HETRIC TONS) 





1982/83 


1983/84 


1984/85 


1985/86 


1986/87 


1986/87 












JUNU 


JUL14 


EXPORTS 














ARGENTINA 


6.5 


5.9 


7.0 


9.5 


8.5 


8.5 


SOUTH AFRICA 


2.3 


0.1 


0.5 


1.0 


2.0 


2.0 


THAILAND 


2.1 


3.0 


3.0 


3.5 


3.3 


3.3 


CHINA 


0.1 


0.4 


5.2 


S.5 


4.0 


5.0 


OTHERS 


5.0 


3.9 


4.3 


3.7 


3.3 


3.9 


TOTAL NON-US 


15.9 


13.3 


20.1 


23.2 


21.1 


22.6 


U.S. 3) 


47.5 


47.4 


46.7 


32.4 


41.3 


39.4 


WORLD TOTAL 


i3.4 

============== 


60.7 


66.8 


55.6 


62.4 


62.0 


IMPORTS 




=============== 


========== 




.»===«=========== 


====== 


MEXICO 


4.0 


2.5 


1.7 


2.3 


3.5 


3.5 


CP i *> 


11.3 


D 0 


0 1 
7. I 


3.1 


5. 1 


5. 1 


USSR 


&.S 


9.5 


20,3 


11.3 


11.7 


12.4 


JAPAN 


14.5 


14.5 


1 i A 

14.0 


14.3 


15.6 


15.6 


EAST EUROPE 


3.3 


1.9 


1,4 


2.4 


1.7 


1.7 


CHINA 


2.4 


O.I 


0.1 


0.3 


0.4 


0.4 


TAIWAN 


3.2 


3.0 


3.0 


3.2 


3.3 


3.3 


KOREA, REP. 


3.9 


3.3 


3,0 


3.7 


3.9 


3,9 


OTHERS 


14.1 


16.1 


14.2 


12.9 


17.1 


16.1 


WORLD TOTAL 




63.4 


60.7 


66.8 




55.6 


62.4 




62.0 


PRODUCTION 4) 5) 














BRAZIL 


19.5 


21.0 


22.0 


19.5 


22.5 


22.5 


MEIICO 


7.0 


9.3 


9,9 


10.0 


9.0 


9.0 


AfibtNTINA 


1.0 


9,2 


11.5 


13.0 


12.5 


12,5 


SOUTH AFRICA 


4.1 


4.4 


7.8 


B.0 


9.0 


9.0 


THAILhND 


3.5 


4.0 


4.4 


5.2 


4.8 


4.7 


EC- 12 


22.6 


21.8 


23.2 


25.4 


24.7 


24.5 


USSR 6) 


13.5 


12.0 


12.5 


13.5 


16.5 


15.5 


EAST EUROPE 


36.5 


33.4 


35.5 


33.6 


35.2 


35.8 


CHINA 


60.3 


68.2 


73.4 


64.0 


72.0 


72.0 


OTHERS 


53.5 


56.8 


62.0 


63.0 


64.9 




64.7 


TOTAL NON-US 


229.3 


240.0 


262.2 




255.1 


271.0 




270.2 


U.S. 


209.2 


106.0 


194.9 


225,2 


192.4 


200.9 


WORLD lOTAL 


438.5 


346. 1 


457.1 


480.3 


463.4 




471.2 


UTlLIZAiiON 11 














WEST EUROPE 


37.2 


35.0 


32.9 


33.4 


32.7 


32.4 


USSR 6i 


19.8 


20.7 


32.8 


22.9 


27.2 


26.9 


JAPAN 


14.2 


14.5 


14.2 


14.3 


15.6 


13.6 


CHINA 


62.8 


67.9 


68.3 


58.8 


68.4 


67.4 


OTHERS 


146.2 


152.8 


156.7 


156.3 


168.5 


167.1 


TOTAL NON-US 


280.2 


290.9 


304.9 


285.7 


312.4 


309.4 


U.S. 


137.6 


121.7 


131.3 


134.1 


135.9 


135.9 


WORLD TOTAL 


417.8 


412.7 


436.2 


419.8 


448.3 


445.3 


END STOCKS 4) 8) 














TOTAL FOREIGN 9) 


17,3 


14.6 


19.2 


19.6 


19.3 


19.7 


U.S. 


89.5 


25.6 


41.9 


101.9 


116.5 


127.6 


WORLD TOTAL 


106.7 


40.1 


61.0 


121.5 


135.9 


147.3 



I: COMBINATION OF JULY/JUNE TRADE YEARS FOR WHEAT AMD OCTOBER/SEPTEMBER 
TRADE YEARS FOR COARSE GRAINS. 

NOTE: FOOTNOTES 1 THROUGH 9 APPEAR ON LAST PAGE OF CIRCULAR. 

SOURCE: PREPARED OR ESTIMATED ON THE BASIS OF OFFICIAL STATISTICS OF FOREIGN 
GOVERNMENTS. OTHER FOREIGN SOURCE MATERIALS, REPORTS OF U.S. AGRICULTURAL ATTACHES AMD 
FOREIGN SERVICE OFFICERS, RESULTS OF OFFICE RESEARCH, AND RELATED INFORMATION. 

COMMODITY PROGRAMS, FAS, USDA 



14 



WORLD SDRGHUn SID TABLE 
OCTOBER/SEPTEMBER YEARS 1982/83 - 1986/87 
(IN HILLIOKS OF METRIC TONS) 





1982/83 


1983/84 


1984/85 


1985/86 


1986/87 


1986/87 












JUNU 


JUL14 


EXPORTS 














AUSTRALIA 


0.3 


1.4 


1.2 


1.0 


1.0 


1.0 


ARGENTINA 


4.9 


4.8 


3.4 


2.2 


1.7 


1.7 


OTHERS 


1.0 


0.7 


0.8 


1.6 


1.0 


1.3 


luiHL nuri ua 


A 7 


A fl 


S 4 


4 B 


T 7 


4 0 




kl. T 


k 7 


7 5 


4 2 


6 6 


6 1 

Oa 1 


PUnLI/ 1 L) 1 ML 


It k 




12 9 


9 0 


10 1 


10. 1 


inr un 1 D 


















i 9 


1 5 

law 


0 5 

Vm w 


0 6 

Va D 


0 6 

Va D 


JAPAN 


2.7 


4.2 


4.6 


4.7 


4.5 


4.5 


HEHCO 


3.2 


3.3 


2.5 


0.8 


2.0 


2.0 


VENEZUELA 


0.4 


0.2 


0.9 


0.7 


1.0 


1.0 


TAIWAN 


0.& 


0.6 


0.6 


0.6 


O.S 


O.S 


KOREA REP 


0.2 


0.4 


0.3 


0.3 


0.4 


0.4 


(^Alini ARABIA 


0.6 


0.3 


0.2 


0.2 


0.4 


0.4 


ISRAEL 


0.3 


0.6 


0.5 


0.5 


0.5 


0.5 


OTHERS 


1.2 


1.7 


1.9 


0.7 


0.4 


0.2 


WORLD TOTAL 


11.6 


13.1 


12.9 


9.0 


10.3 


10.1 


PRODUCTION 4; 5) 














AUSTRALIA 


1.0 


1.9 


1.4 


1.3 


1.3 


1.3 


ARGENTINA 


7.6 


7.2 


5.9 


4.5 


4.2 


4.2 


SOUTH AFRICA 


0.2 


0.5 


0.6 


0.5 


0.7 


0.7 


THAILAND 


0.2 


0.3 


0.4 


0.3 


0.4 


0.3 


HEHCO 


2.8 


4.0 


4.1 


3.7 


3.8 


3.8 


INDIA 


lO.B 


11.9 


11.3 


10.5 


11. 0 


11.0 


CHINA 


7.0 


8.4 


7.7 


6.5 


7.4 


7.4 


NIGERIA 


4.1 


2.7 


3.7 


4.0 


4.3 


4.3 


SUDAN 


1.9 


1.8 


1.2 


4.0 


4.0 


4.0 


OTHERS 


8.3 


7.9 


7.8 


8.8 


8.9 


8.9 


TflTAI NflN-ll'; 
lUinL nupi uo 


TO. 7 


4A 


44 1 


44 1 


4S <? 


4S ft 

^ J. o 


II <; 
II* *)« 


71 7 


17 4 


77 0 


7ft 


71 A 

^ i B 0 


71 A 




AS 1 


JO . 7 


kk 1 


77 4 


A7 S 

0/ . J 


A7 4 


UTILIZATION 7) 














U.S. 


12.8 


10.0 


14.1 


17.3 


15.1 


15.4 


USSR 6) 


2.9 


2.0 


1.5 


0.6 


0.6 


0.6 


uninn 


A 9 

D. 7 


D. 0 


7 7 


A t 


7 7 


7 7 


ncA iL-u 


A 1 


A 


A I 

D.T 


S ft 

J. 0 




S 7 


JAPAN 


2.8 


3.7 


4.7 


4.6 


4.5 


4.5 


OTHERS 


31.8 


31.9 


31.8 


31.7 


34.3 


33.7 


WORLD TOTAL 


63.4 


62.3 


65.8 


66.0 


67.4 


67.1 


:ND STOCKS 4) 8) 














TOTAL FOREIGN 9) 


3.4 


3.9 


3.9 


3.6 


3.8 


3.8 


U.S. 


11.2 


7.3 


7.6 


14.2 


13.8 


14.3 


WORLD TOTAL 


14.6 


11.2 


11.5 


17.8 


17.7 


18.1 

















*: COfiBINATION OF JULV/JUNE TRADE YEARS FOR WHEAT AND OCTOBER/SEPTEHBER 
TRADE YEARS FOR COARSE GRAINS. 

NOTE: FOOTNOTES 1 THROUGH 9 APPEAR ON LAST PAGE OF CIRCULAR. 

SOURCE: PREPARED OR ESTIMATED ON THE BASIS OF OFFICIAL STATISTICS OF FOREIGN 
GOVERNMENTS, OTHER FOREIGN SOURCE MATERIALS, REPORTS OF U.S. AGRICULTURAL ATTACHES AND 
FOREIGN SERVICE OFFICERS, RESULTS OF OFFICE RESEARCH, AND RELATED INFORMATION. 

COMMODITY PROGRAMS, FAS, USDfi 



15 



WORLD BftRLEY 5W TABLE 
OCTOBER/ SEPTEMBER YEARS 1982/83 - 1986/87 
(IN BILLIONS OF METRIC TOMS) 





1982/83 


1983/84 


1984/85 


1985/86 


1986/87 


1986/87 












JUNll 


dULl4 


EXPORTS 














CANADA 


6.1 


4.2 


2.5 


3.5 


4.0 


4.2 


AUSTRALIA 


0.6 


3.7 


4.7 


4.0 


2.6 


2.6 


EC-12 


3.9 


3.8 


B.O 


7.0 


6.0 


6.0 


OTHERS 


1.9 


1.5 


2.3 


2.2 


1.9 


1.9 


TOTAL NON-US 


12.5 


13.3 


17.3 


16.7 


14.5 


14.7 


U.S. 3) 


1.0 


2.1 


1.2 


0.3 


1.0 


1.0 


KORLD TOTAL 


13.4 


15.4 


18.5 


17.0 


15.5 


15.7 


IMPORTS 














EC-12 


1.9 


0.8 


0.1 


0.1 


0.2 


0.2 


USSR 


2.2 


0.5 


4.7 


2.0 


2.5 


2.8 


JAPAN 


1.3 


1.6 


1.7 


1.6 


1.6 


1.6 


EAST EUROPE 


1.5 


2.0 


1.7 


3.4 


1.4 


1.4 


SAUDI ARABIA 


2.5 


5.1 


S.O 


5.5 


5.6 


5.6 


OTHERS 


4.1 


5.4 


5.3 


4.5 


4.3 


4.1 


HORLD TOTAL 


13.4 


15.4 


18.5 


17.0 


15.5 


15.7 


PRODUCTION 4) 5) 














CANADA 


14.0 


10.2 


10.3 


12.2 


11.5 


12.0 


AUSTRALIA 


1.9 


4.9 


5.6 


4.8 


3.9 


3.9 


EC-12 


46.7 


42.9 


54.5 




47.9 


46.6 


USSR 


41.0 


54.0 


42.1 


47.2 


46.3 


43.5 


CHINA 


7.0 


6.8 


7.3 


6.7 


6.2 


6.7 


EAST EUROPE 


17.4 


15.4 


17.1 


16.B 


16.7 


16.7 


OTHERS 


25.6 


23.6 


24.8 


26.5 


26.4 


26.4 


TOTAL m-\i5 


153.6 


157.7 


161.6 


164.8 


158.9 


155.8 


U.S. 


11.2 


11.1 


13.0 


12.8 


13.1 


14.4 


WORLD TOTAL 


164.8 


168.8 


174.6 


177.6 


172.0 


170.1 


UTILIZATION 7) 














NEST EUROPE 


49.5 


49.1 


50.2 


49.2 


49.2 


49.0 


USSR 6) 


44.0 


53.8 


44.5 


49.0 


48.8 


47.3 


EAST EUROPE 


17.8 


16.8 


18.6 


19.3 


18.2 


18.3 


OTHERS 


41.7 


44.6 


43.2 


47.1 


44.4 


43.9 


TOTAL NON-US 


153.1 


164.3 


156.5 


164.5 


160.6 


158.4 


U.S. 


S.9 


9.8 


10.3 


10.8 


10.3 


10.3 






171 9 


166.8 




17fl Q 

1 / V. 7 


iOO. D 


END STOCKS 4) 8) 














TOTAL FOREIGN 9) 


15.0 


10.2 


16.8 


17.3 


16.4 


15.5 


U.S. 


4.7 


4.1 


5.4 


7.1 


9.5 


10.2 


NORLD TOTAL 


19.7 


14.3 


22.2 


24.4 


25.9 


25.7 

















COMBINATION OF JULY/JUNE TRADE YEARS FOR NHEAT AND OCTOBER/SEPTEMBER 
TRADE YEARS FOR COARSE GRAINS. 

NOTE: FOOTNOTES I THROUGH 9 APPEAR ON LAST PAbt OF CIkCulAk. 

SOURCE: PREPARED OR ESTIMATED ON THE BASIS OF OFFICIAL STATISTICS OF FOREIGN 
GOVERNMENTS, OTHER FOREIGN SOURCE MATERIALS, REPORTS OF U.S. AGRICULTURAL ATTACHES AND 
FOREIGN SERVICE OFFICERS, RESULTS OF OFFICE RESEARCH, AND RELATED INFORMATION. 



COMMODITY PROGRAMS, FAS, USDA 



16 



WORLD HHEAT AND FLOUR TRADE 
JULY/JUNE YEARS 1982/83 - 1986/87 
(IN THOUSAND OF METRIC TONS) 



EXPORTS 
UNITED STATES 
CANADA 
AR6ENTINA 
AUSTRALIA 
EC- 12 

0. W. EUROPE 
EAST EUROPE 
USSR 
TURKEY 

OTHER COUNTRIES 



1982/83 



39939 
21368 
7501 
S131 
16320 
1158 
2370 
500 
573 
856 



1983/84 



38860 
21765 
9661 
10586 
15450 
1475 
2255 
500 
600 
818 



1984/85 



38092 
19400 
8034 
15265 
18500 
1316 
4100 
1000 
517 
650 



1985/86 



25000 
17000 
6100 
15700 
15500 
1240 
2475 
1000 
400 
1080 



1986/87 
JUNU 

30500 
19000 
4600 
14500 
16500 
1350 
2400 
1000 
500 
1100 



1986/87 
JUL14 

30500 
19S00 
4600 
14500 
l&OOO 
1350 
2400 
1000 
500 
1150 



WORLD TOTAL 



98716 



101970 



106874 



85495 



91450 



91500 



IMPORTS 



EC-12 


4606 


4546 


2969 


2850 


2600 


2600 


0. W. EUROPE 


645 


818 


630 


780 


800 


800 


EAST EUROPE 


4523 


3757 


2602 


3550 


3450 


3150 


JAPAN 


5795 


5857 


5603 


5390 


5500 


SSOO 


CHINA 


13000 


9600 


7400 


6300 


7000 


7000 


USSR 


20200 


20500 


28100 


16000 


17000 


18000 


EBYPT 


5350 


6712 


6600 


6700 


7000 


7000 


ALGERIA 


254B 


2840 


2800 


2800 


3000 


3000 


MOROCCO 


1331 


2128 


2450 


2000 


1400 


1400 


NIGERIA 


1500 


1600 


1750 


1300 


1300 


1300 


TUNISIA 


695 


1035 


858 


550 


1250 


1250 


LIBYA 


449 


380 


400 


400 


500 


50Q 


SUDAN 


448 


450 


600 


665 


700 


700 


MEXICO 


50 


566 


491 


100 


200 


200 


BRAZIL 


3600 


3948 


5400 


2500 


3100 


2800 


CHILE 


1080 


1001 


750 


600 


600 


600 


PERU 


1006 


970 


863 


950 


950 


9S0 


VENEZUELA 


826 


925 


1028 


1000 


1050 


lOSO 


ECUADOR 


325 


Tea 

358 


360 


380 


380 


380 


BOLIVIA 


202 


250 


260 


270 


290 


290 


CUBA 


1100 


1300 


1300 


1300 


1350 


1350 


COLOMBIA 


574 


650 


600 


600 


600 


600 


ISRAEL 


625 


500 


700 


600 


625 


625 


JORDAN 


335 


335 


384 


390 


400 


400 


LEBANON 


373 


375 


375 


375 


390 


390 


SAUDI ARABIA 


700 


336 


300 


100 


100 


100 


SYRIA 


430 


935 


1280 


900 


1200 


1200 


YEMEN, AR 


450 


600 


575 


600 


650 


650 


IRAN 


1405 


3700 


3200 


2300 


3000 


2700 


IRAQ 


1800 


3000 


3000 


2400 


3000 


3000 


MALAYSIA 


541 


602 


640 


645 


670 


67C 


VIETNAM 


600 


600 


600 


600 


600 


600 


BANGLADESH 


1500 


1876 


1898 


1300 


1700 


1800 


INDONESIA 


1485 


1587 


1375 


1350 


1450 


1450 


PAKISTAN 


580 


366 


1036 


1550 


350 


350 


TURKEY 


SO 


350 


1048 


1000 


1000 


iOOO 


INDIA 


3700 


2500 


150 


iOO 


100 


100 


SRI LANKA 


474 


648 


648 


595 


625 


625 


KOREA, REP. 


1B80 


2351 


3111 


2900 


2700 


2700 


PHILIPPINES 


925 


693 


785 


BOO 


800 


%0 


TAIWAN 


737 


655 


780 


750 


800 


800 


KOREA, DPR 


200 


500 


550 


550 


550 


550 


SINGAPORE 


200 


200 


200 


200 


200 


200 


SUBTOTAL 


88843 


92900 


96449 


76990 


80930 


81180 


OTHER COUNTRIES 


5102 


6153 


7062 


6708 


7222 


7372 


UNACCOUNTED 1) 


4771 


2917 


3363 


1797 


3298 


2948 


WORLD TOTAL 


98716 


101970 


106B74 


85495 


91450 


91500 



1) THIS REPRESENTS EXPORTS NOT ACCOUNTED FOR IN REPORTS FROM IMPORTING 

COUNTRIES. SINCE THIS IS RECURRING, IT IS TAKEN INTO ACCOUNT IN THE ASSESSMENT OF 

THE YEAR AHEAD. 

SOURCE: PREPARED OR ESTIMATED ON THE BASIS OF OFFICIAL STATISTICS OF FOREIGN 
GOVERNMENTS, OTHER FOREIGN SOURCE MATERIALS, REPORTS OF U.S. AGRICULTURAL 
ATTACHES AND FOREIGN SERVICE OFFICERS, RESULTS OF OFFICE RESEARCH, AND RELATED 
INFORMATION. 

COMMODITY PROGRAMS, FAS, USDA 



17 



HORLD COARSE GRAIN TRADE 
OCTOBER/SEPTEMBER YEARS 1982/63 - 1986/87 
(IN THOUSAND OF tIETfilC TONS) 



EXPORT 
IHPORT 





1982/83 


1983/84 


1984/85 


1985/86 


1986/87 


1986/87 












JUNU 


JUL14 


EXPORTS 














UNITED STATES 


53990 


5579B 


55449 


36965 


49000 


46600 


CANADA 


7074 


5482 


3316 


4400 


5000 


5200 


ARGENTINA 


11624 


10854 


10593 


11865 


10400 


10400 


AUSTRALIA 

nuw 1 iiriL. in 


979 


5492 


6363 


5315 


4000 


4000 


EC- 12 


4291 


4257 


8824 


7300 


6500 


6500 


Q H EUROPE 


944 


1152 


1647 


1865 


1500 


1500 


EAST EUROPE 


3266 


3032 


3110 


1910 


2400 


3220 


THAILAND 

1 1 in 1 L. nil 1/ 


2326 


3316 


3352 


3800 


3600 


3575 


SOUTH AFRICA 


2300 


75 


507 


HOC 


2000 


2000 


CHINA 


100 


475 


5515 


6300 


4200 


5500 


SUBTOTAL 


86894 


89933 


98676 


80820 


88600 


88495 


OTHER COUNTRIES 


2959 


1937 


2305 


2220 


1600 


1675 


HORLD TOTAL 


89853 


91870 


100981 


83040 


90200 


90170 


IHPORTS 














EC- 12 


14023 


12516 


9565 


5300 


5100 


5100 


0. H. EUROPE 


1589 


1354 


1334 


940 


1290 


1290 


EAST EUROPE 


4852 


4218 


3406 


5860 


3150 


3150 


JAPAN 


18693 


20721 


20716 


20960 


22100 


22100 


CHINA 


2548 


231 


140 


500 


500 


500 


USSR 


11000 


11900 


27300 


14000 


15000 


16000 


EGYPT 


1516 


1500 


1700 


1750 


2000 


2000 


ALGERIA 


750 


1143 


1145 


915 


1450 


1450 


tlOROCCO 


140 


235 


257 


180 


180 


180 


TUNISIA 


169 


296 


229 


245 


450 


450 


SOUTH AFRICA 


767 


2922 


865 


200 


0 


0 


CANADA 


750 


318 


554 


300 


300 


300 


MEXICO 


7232 


5856 


4213 


3150 


5600 


5600 


BRAZIL 


115 


560 


472 


2000 


600 


600 


CHILE 


340 


66 


20 


20 


100 


100 


PERU 


446 


467 


302 


355 


380 


360 


VENEZUELA 


1318 


1620 


1605 


750 


1500 


1500 


JAMAICA 


166 


190 


156 


140 


150 


150 


CUBA 


465 


429 


581 


400 


530 


530 


COLOMBIA 


304 


181 


320 


225 


400 


400 


ISRAEL 


1229 


1085 


1043 


1070 


1100 


1100 


LEBANON 


225 


122 


105 


125 


140 


140 


SAUDI ARABIA 


3450 


5932 


5780 


6250 


6800 


6800 


SYRIA 


225 


425 


230 


200 


500 


500 


IRAN 


1649 


1275 


1280 


1700 


1500 


1500 


IRAQ 


489 


605 


B2S 


300 


500 


500 


MALAYSIA 


945 


1139 


1205 


1235 


1250 


1300 


INDONESIA 


198 


66 


49 


60 


50 


50 


KOREA, REP. 


4146 


4049 


3353 


4210 


4400 


4400 


PHILIPPINES 


556 


217 


284 


0 


170 


170 


TAIHAN 


4150 


3989 


4146 


4130 


4300 


4300 


SINGAPORE 


490 


474 


725 


350 


500 


500 


SUBTOTAL 


84935 


86101 


93905 


77820 


81990 


83040 


OTHER COUNTRIES 


4413 


5577 


6551 


4190 


5370 


5495 


UNACCOUNTED 1) 


505 


192 




1030 


2840 


1635 


HORLD TOTAL 


89853 


91870 


100981 


83040 


90200 


90170 


1) THIS REPRESENTS EXPORTS NOT 


ACCOUNTED FOR 


IN REPORTS FROM 


IMPORTING COUNTRIES. 









SINCE THIS IS RECURRING, IT IS TAKEN INTO ACCOUNT IN THE ASSESSMENT OF THE YEAR AHEAD 



SOURCE: PREPARED OR ESTIMATED ON THE BASIS OF OFFICIAL STATISTICS OF FOREIGN GOBERNMENTS, OTHER 
OTHER FOREIGN SOURCE MATERIALS, REPORTS OF U.S. AGRICULTURAL ATTACHES AND FOREIGN SERVICE OFFICERS, 
RESULTS OF OFFICE RESEARCH, AND RELATED INFORMATION. 

COMMODITY PROGRAMS, FAS, USDA 



18 



WIRLD RICE TRADE 
Cal Year 1983 to 1987 
(IN THOUSAND OF METRIC TONS) 





CAL YR 


CAL Yft 


CAL YR 


CAL YR 


CAL 1987 




19B3 


1984 


1985 


1986 


JUL14 


EXPORTS 












UNITED STATES 


2331 


2129 


1906 


2200 


2600 


ARGENTINA 


68 


115 


165 


145 


145 


AUSTRALIA 


281 


370 


400 


400 


350 


BURMA 


750 


727 


450 


600 


600 


CHINA 


580 


1168 


1010 


900 


900 


TAItWN 


533 


210 


40 


300 


225 


EC-12 


847 


772 


90B 


1045 


975 


EGYPT 


21 


50 


16 


SO 


50 


GUYANA 


45 


47 


35 


35 


35 


INDIA 


200 


200 


200 


200 


200 


INDONESIA 


0 


0 


392 


300 


») 


JAPAN 






A 
V 


A 
V 


A 
V 


KOREA, DPR 


250 


250 


250 


250 


250 




n 

V 


7ft 

CM 


SA 

dV 






PAKISTAN 


1299 


1050 


962 


1000 


900 


THAILAND 


3700 


4528 




4700 




URUGUAY 


139 


155 


231 


220 


230 






1 Jv 


Jv 




JV 


SUBTOTAL 


11555 


12043 


11058 


11920 


11585 


OTHER COUNRIES 


370 


524 


400 


345 


360 


WORLD TOTAL 


11925 


12567 


11458 


12265 


11945 


IMPORTS 












BANGLADESH 


82 


588 


256 


200 


250 


BRAZIL 


32£i 


0 


400 


1000 


500 


mm 


115 


115 


115 


115 


115 


CHINA 


75 


100 


100 


150 


150 


CUBA 


207 


200 


200 


200 


200 


EAST EUROPE 


291 


366 


315 


320 


315 


EC-12 


1046 


1299 


1249 


1330 


1245 


INDIA 


315 


560 


10 


10 


5 


IRAN 


680 


730 


m 


750 


750 


IRAQ 


474 


490 


475 


550 


575 


IVORY COAST 


434 


368 


250 


250 


300 


KOREA, REP. 


216 


7 


0 


0 


0 


KUNAIT 


55 


80 


90 


90 


90 


MALAGASY 


185 


99 


120 


150 


150 


MALAYSIA 


357 


437 


425 


450 


500 


MEJICO 


0 


168 


164 


75 


100 


NIGERIA 


711 


450 


370 


100 


200 


PERU 


101 


48 


5 


260 


200 


PHILIPPINES 


0 


212 


528 


150 


150 


SAUDI ARABIA 


491 


530 


500 


500 


500 






01 J 




0 Jv 




SOUTH AFRICA 


158 


186 


170 


195 


200 


ani LnnNn 


i J / 










SYRIA 


120 


130 


130 


130 


120 


U.A. EMIRATES 


100 


120 


130 


135 


135 


USSR 






ISO 

IwV 


200 




VIETNAM 


30 


300 


400 


600 


400 


SUBTOTAL 


7411 


8148 


7697 


8510 


8050 


OTHER COUNTRIES 


3961 


3785 


3068 


3360 


3370 


UNACCOUNTED 1) 


553 


634 


693 


395 


525 


WORLD TOTAL 


11925 


12567 


11458 


12265 


11945 



1) THIS REPRESENTS EXPORTS NOT ACCOUNTED FOR IN REPORTS FROM IMPORTING COUNTRIES. 

SINCE THIS IS RECURRING IT IS TAKEN INTO ACCOUNT IN THE ASSESSMENT OF THE YEAR AHEAD. 

SOURCE: PREPARED OR ESTIMATED ON THE BASIS OF OFFICIAL STATISTICS OF FOREIGN GOVERNMENTS, 
OTHER FOREIGN SOURCE MATERIALS, REPORTS OF U.S. AGRICULTURAL ATTACHES AND FOREIGN 
SERVICE OFFICERS, RESULTS OF OFFICE RESEARCH, AND RELATED INFORMATION. 

COMMODITY PROGRAMS, FAS, USDA 



19 



EUROPEAN COHHUNITY-121 6RAIN S & D 
WHEAT AND COARSE GRAINS 
HARKET YEARS 1976/77 - 1986/87 
MILLIONS OF HECTARS OR METRIC TONS 



WHEAT 



COARSE 





AREA 


VTFI n 


PRnniiPTinN 


-- IMPORTS 




- EXPORTS 




DOMESTIC UTILIZATION 


runtuc 
cnuino 


HARVESTED 






MKT YR TRADE YR 1/ 


MKT YR TRADE YR 1/ FEED USE 


TOTAL 


0 1 UI.N3 


COARSE 3RAINS 






















1976/77 


36.4 


X a 70 


lOS 5 


49.2 


35.5 


20.6 


9.2 


83.1 


138.2 


17 


1977/78 


35.6 


41 


\7\ 1 


45.9 


28.7 


26.0 


10.5 


85.7 


142.5 


IJ. 7 


1978/79 


36.8 


v). / 0 


n7 7 


42.9 


26.1 


28.5 


14.3 


89.3 


146.3 


71 7 


1979/80 


36.6 


3.62 


132.3 


43.0 


27.3 


31.1 


15.7 


90.1 


147.1 


18.3 


1980/81 


36.9 


v> . 7 V 


144 7 


39.7 


25.2 


36.7 


21.6 


87.9 


144.5 




1981/82 


36.6 


3.67 


134.2 


42.4 


24.1 


36.7 


19.7 


86.3 


142.8 


18.0 


1982/83 


36.6 


■'I 97 

0. 7 / 


14S \ 

it J. 0 


36.1 


18.6 


36.9 


20.6 


85.7 


140.9 


71 A 


1983/84 


36.0 




n7 7 


34.1 


17.1 


37.4 


19.7 


87.2 


141.9 


IS. V 


1984/85 


36.1 


4 77 


17? 5 


33.4 


12.5 


47.5 


27.3 


88.6 


145.3 


97 1 

LI m I 


1985/86 21 


35.6 


4 48 


159 


34.2 


8.2 


47.4 


22.8 


89.9 


146.6 


7k A 


muBi 3/ 


35.5 


4 36 


154 9 


34.9 


7.7 


46.2 


22.5 


88.8 


143.1 

k a w a k 


71 1 


1976/77 


15.4 


02 


46 6 

~U a w 


10.2 


5.9 


10.9 


5.1 


10.0 


45.6 


9 7 

7 • / 


1977/78 


14.0 


3 19 


44 5 


13.3 


6.3 


12.7 


5.1 


10.8 


47.5 


7 4 


1978/79 


15.1 


3 67 


55 3 


11.7 


5.7 


15.3 


6.8 


12.1 


47.9 


11 


1979/80 


14.8 


3.59 


53.2 


12.0 


6.4 


17.8 


10.7 


12.8 


48.9 


9.7 


1980/81 


15.6 


3.94 


61.5 


11.4 


5.6 


21.7 


15.7 


13.3 


49.4 


11.6 


1981/82 


15.7 


3 71 


58 1 

WW a X 


12.1 


5.6 


22.3 


15.7 


14.0 


49.6 


9 8 

7 . D 


1982/83 


16.0 


4 04 


/i4 7 


10.1 


4.6 


21.9 


16.3 


15.9 


50.2 


17 4 


1983/84 


16.1 


3 97 

J a 7 / 


A3 ft 

OO a w 


10.9 


4.5 


22.7 


15.5 


21.1 


55.8 


ft A 
o. a 


1984/85 


16.2 


lit IL 


ft? ft 


13.1 


3.0 


28.4 


18.5 


23.3 


59.6 


1A A 


1985/86 2/ 


15.3 


4 A7 


71 S 


15.2 


2.9 


27.3 


15.5 


24.3 


60.3 


1*^ 7 


1986/87 3/ 


15.6 


4 AS 


7? 9 


16.1 


2.6 


28.1 


16.0 


24.7 


59.4 


17 7 

1 1 » L 


UNS 4/ 






















1976/77 


21.0 


7 9'5 

i.B 7w 


Al 9 

U 1 a 7 


39.0 


29.6 


9.7 


4.1 


73.1 


92.6 


1 A 

raw 


1977/78 


21.6 




7A A 

/ u ■ w 


32.6 


22.4 


13.3 


5.5 


74.9 


95.0 


ft 4 


1978/79 


21.7 


77 


ftl 9 


31.1 


20.4 


13.2 


5.5 


77.3 


9ft 4 

70. 1 


9 9 

7.7 


1979/80 


21.7 


Z LA 
0. on 


70 7 
/Y. Z 


31.0 


20.9 


13.3 


5.0 


77.4 


98.3 


D.J 


1980/81 


21.3 


3.87 


82.6 


28.3 


19.7 


15.0 


5.9 


74.5 


95.1 


9.4 


1981/82 


20.9 


3.64 


76.1 


30.4 


18.6 


14.4 


4.0 


72.3 


93.2 


8.3 


1982/83 


20.6 


3.91 


80.7 


25.9 


14.0 


15.0 


4.3 


69.8 


90.6 


9.2 


1983/84 


19.9 


3.72 


73.9 


23.2 


in c 

Iz.. J 


14.7 


4.3 


66.1 


86.2 


5.4 


1984/85 


20.0 


4.49 


89.7 


20.3 


9.6 


19.1 


8.8 


65.4 


85.7 


10.5 


1985/86 2/ 


20.3 


4.33 


87.7 


19.0 


5.3 


20.1 


7.3 


65.5 


86.3 


10.9 


1986/87 3/ 


19.9 


4.11 


82.0 


18.8 


5.1 


18.2 


6.5 


64.1 


83.7 


9.9 



1/ EXCLUDES INTRA-EC TRADE. WHEAT AND COARSE GRAINS ARE ON A JULY/ JUNE BASIS THROUGH 1978/79. 

FROM 1979/80 ON, COARSE GRAINS ARE ON AN OCTOBER/SEPTEMBER BASIS. 
2/ PRELIMINARY. 
3/ FORECAST. 

4/ RYE, BARLEY, OATS, CORN, SORGHUM, AND MIXED GRAINS. 

SOURSE: PREPARED OR ESTIMATED ON BASIS OF OFFICIAL STATISTICS OF FOREIGN GOVERNMENTS, OTHER FOREIGN SOURCE 
MATERIALS, REPORTS OF U.S. AGRICULTURAL ATTACHES AND FOREIGN SERVICE OFFICERS, RESULTS OF OFFICIAL RESEARCH, 
AND RELATED INFORMATION. 

COMMODITY PROGRAMS, FAS, USDA GRAIN AND FEED DIVISION 



20 



EASTERN EUROPE: GRAIN S k D 
WHEAT AND COARSE GRAINS 
TRADE YEARS! 1977/78 - 1986/87 
MILLIONS HETRIC TONS/HECTARES 



MHEAT 





AREA 


YIELD 


PRODUCTION 


IMPORTS 


EXPORTS 


NET 


UTILIZATION 


STOCKS 


HARVESTED 










IMPORTS 


TOTAL 1/ CHANGE 2/ 


LUHnot DKHlns 


















1977/78 


29.6 


3.17 


93.9 


13.3 


4.1 


9.2 


103.4 


0.0 


1070/70 

17/0/ / 7 


•JO 9 

£.7,1 


3.30 


96.4 


15.0 


3.4 


11.6 


1 AO L 
1U7.0 


-0.4 


1979/80 


29.0 


3.14 


91.1 


17.6 


2.9 


14.7 


104.4 


0.0 


100A/Q1 


■30 0 


3.32 


96.0 


16.1 


4.5 


11.6 


1 lU.Z 


-0,4 


1001 /O 


"70 0 
ZD. 0 


3.31 


95.2 


12.5 


4.1 


8.3 


1U4. 1 


A *> 
V. Z 


iQQl /07 


00 0 

LO.O 


3.71 


106.7 


9.4 


5.6 


3.7 


1 /to A 

lUo. 4 


1.1 


1QD\/0A 


90 0 

ZD. 7 


3.55 


102.5 


8.0 


5.3 


2.7 


1 /iC. L 

lUJ.O 


-ft 7 

-0. / 


i7B*t/ D J 


90 Ci 

LItV 


3.96 


114.9 


6.0 


7.2 


-1.2 


119 L 


9 n 

Z. V 




98 8 


3.69 


106.3 


9.4 


4.4 


5.0 


1 iZ. J 


-1 0 

1.7 


1986/B7 4/ 

i 700/ U / ~/ 


28 9 


3.76 


108.8 


6.3 


5.6 


0.7 


Ivo. o 


A 7 
V. / 


1977/78 


10.1 


3.43 


34.6 


5.0 


2.3 


2.7 


37.2 


0.1 


1978/79 


10.2 


3.52 


35.9 


4.4 


2.2 


2.2 


39.1 


-0.5 


1979/80 

1 r / / / u V 


9 3 

7 t O 


2.97 


27.6 


6.1 


1.1 


5.0 


JZ. i 


V. V 


1980/81 


9 7 

Iff 


0. JO 


o4.o 


K 0 
J. 0 


9 ^ 
Z.J 




'18 

JO . J 


n 1 


1961/82 


9 0 

/ fl V 


3.38 


30.6 


6.2 


2.0 


4.3 


Vi 1 
jj. I 


-0 1 


1982/83 

Jl / ' WW 


9 4 


3.69 


34.7 


4.5 


2.4 


2.2 


36 9 
ju. 7 


-0 1 


1983/84 


10 0 


3.55 


35.4 


3.8 


2.3 


1.5 


37 1 
J/ < 1 


-0 3 

V.J 


1984/85 

A / W I /WW 


10 2 


4.14 


42.0 


2.6 


4.1 


-1.5 


40 0 


fl 7 

va / 


198^/86 3/ 

1 7 WW / Dw w/ 


10 0 


3.76 


37.5 


3.6 


2.5 


1.1 


'^8 8 
JOi 0 


-0 

Va J 


1986/87 4/ 


10 2 


3.83 


39.1 


3.2 


2.4 


0.8 


^9 4 

J7 • *T 


A 1 


ilNR 5/ 


















1077 /70 
11 1 11 to 


1 0 ^ 
17. J 


3.04 


59.3 


8.3 


1.8 


6.6 


LL 9 
00. Z 


_A 1 
"V. 1 


1978/79 


18.9 


3.20 


60.5 


10.6 


1.2 


9.4 


70.6 


0.1 


1979/80 


19.8 


3.20 


63.4 


11.5 


1.8 


9.7 


72.3 


-0.1 


1980/81 


19.2 


3.24 


62.3 


10.2 


2.1 


8.1 


72.5 


-0.5 


1961/82 


19.7 


3.27 


64.5 


6.1 


2.1 


4.0 


69.1 


0.3 


1982/83 


19.4 


3.72 


72.0 


4.9 


3. 3 


1.6 


71.6 


1.2 


1983/84 


18.9 


3.55 


67.1 


4.2 


3.0 


1.2 


68.5 


-0.5 


1984/85 


18.8 


3.87 


72.9 


3.4 


3.1 


0.3 


72.7 


1.3 


1985/86 3/ 


16.8 


3.65 


66.6 


5.9 


1.9 


4.0 


73.7 


-1.5 


1986/87 4/ 


18.7 


3.72 


69.7 


3.2 


3.2 


-0.1 


69.4 


0.6 



»! WHEAT AND COARSE GRAINS ARE ON A JULY/JUNE TRADE YEAR THROUGH 1978/79. FROH 1979/80 ON, COARSE GRAINS 

ARE ON AN OCTOBER/SEPTEMBER TRADE YEAR. 
1/ REPRESENTS APPARENT UTILIZATION, I.E. INCLUDES ANNUAL STOCK LEVEL ADJUSTMENTS FOR THOSE COUNTRIES FOR 

WHICH NO STOCKS DATA ARE AVAILABLE. 
2/ INCLUDES YEAR-TO-YEAR FLUCTUATIONS ONLY FOR THOSE COUNTRIES OR COMMODITIES FOR WHICH STOCK DATA 

ARE AVAILABLE. 
3/ PRELIMINARY. 
4/ PROJECTION. 

5/ RYE, BARLEY, OATS, CORN, SORGHUM, AND MIXED GRAINS. 

SOURCES: PREPARED OR ESTIMATED ON BASIS OF OFFICIAL STATISTICS OF FORE I GOVERNMENTS, OTHER FOREIGN SOURCE 
MATERIALS, REPORTS OF U.S. AGRICULTURAL ATTACHES AND FOREIGN SERVICE OFFICERS, RESULTS OF OFFICE RESEARCH, 
AND RELATED INFORMATION. 



COMMODITY PROGRAMS, FAS, USDA 



GRAIN AND FEED DIVISION 



21 



USSR AND CHINA: GRAIN S k D 
WHEAT AND COARSE GRAINS 
JULY/JUNE YEARS 1778/79 - 1986/87 
MILLION tiETRIC TONS/HECTARES 



USSR 



WHEAT 





AREA 


YIELD 


rrvuuut. i lun 


JIU /JIIN 
um./ ifun 


JIU /.IIIH 


NET 




HARVESTED 






TMcnRTi; 

inrun i 3 


CYpnRT'; 
uArUn 1 9 






AND COARSE GRAINS 
















1978/79 


120.9 


1.87 


226.1 


15.0 


2.5 


12.5 


219,7 


1979/80 


118.9 








U.J 




711 


1980/81 


119.3 


1.50 


178.7 


34.0 


0.5 


33.5 


214.2 


1981/82 


117.3 


1.30 


152.0 


45.0 


V.J 


11 H 




1982/83 


115.3 


1 19 


172.0 




V.J 


■^1 u 
0 i . u 




1983/34 


112.0 


1.59 


178.0 


32.0 


V.J 


31.5 


206.5 


1984/85 


110.3 


1.44 


159.0 


55.0 


1.0 


54.0 


207.0 


1985/86 3/ 


108.7 


1.63 


177.0 


28.0 


1.0 


27.0 


204.0 


1986/87 4/ 


108.0 


1.55 


167.0 


33.0 


1.0 


32.0 


202.0 


1978/79 


62.9 


1.92 


120.8 


5.1 


1.5 


3.6 


106.5 


1979/80 


57.7 


1.56 


90.2 


12.1 


0.5 


11.6 


114.8 


1980/81 


61.5 


1.60 


98.2 


16.0 


0.5 


15.5 


114.7 


1981/82 


59.2 


1.35 


80.0 


19.5 


0.5 


19.0 


102.0 


1962/83 


57.3 


1.50 


86.0 


20.2 


0.5 


19.7 


105.7 


1983/84 


50.8 


1.56 


79.0 


20.5 


0.5 


20.0 


97.0 


1984/85 


51.1 


1.43 


73.0 


28.1 


1.0 


27.1 


96.1 


19B5/86 3/ 


50.3 


1.65 


83.0 


16.0 


1.0 


15.0 


98.0 


1986/87 4/ 


49.0 


1.55 


76.0 


18.0 


1.0 


17.0 


95.0 


GRAINS 5/ 
















1973/79 


58.0 


1 H9 

i . OL 


1 u J. 0 


7.7 


t fl 

l.v 


D. 7 


11X7 


1979/80 


61.2 


1.33 


81.1 


18.4 


0.0 


18.4 


99.5 


1980/81 


57.9 


1.39 


80.5 


18.0 


0.0 


IS.O 


99.5 


1961/82 


58.0 


1.24 


72.0 


25.5 


0.0 


25.5 


98.5 


1982/83 


58.0 


1.48 


86.0 


11.3 


o.c 


11.3 


98.3 


1983/84 


61.2 


1.62 


99.0 


11.5 


0.0 


11.5 


109.5 


1984/85 


59.2 


1.45 


86.0 


26.9 


0.0 


26.9 


110.9 


1935/86 3/ 


58.5 


1.61 


94.0 


12.0 


0.0 


12.0 


106.0 


1986/87 4/ 


59.0 


1.54 


91.0 


15.0 


0.0 


15.0 


107.0 



STOCKS 
CHANGE 2/ 



18.0 
-13.0 

-1.0 

-3.0 
0.0 
2.0 
4.0 
0.0 

-2.0 



1.0 
0.0 
-1.0 

-1.0 
-1.0 
1.0 
2.0 
0.0 
-1.0 



CHINA 

HHEAT AND COARSE GRAINS 



NHEAT 



COARSE 



1978/79 


62.7 


2.12 


132.8 


11.1 


0.1 


11.0 


143.9 


0.0 


1979/80 


63.1 


2.31 


145.8 


10.9 


0.1 


10.8 


156.6 


0.0 


1980/81 


60.9 


2.26 


137.6 


14.6 


0.2 


14.4 


152.2 


0.0 


1981/82 


59.0 


2.36 


139.1 


14.5 


0.2 


14.3 


153.4 


0.0 


1962/83 


57.8 


2.60 


150.0 


15.7 


0.1 


X 15.6 


165.6 


0.0 


1983/84 


59.2 


2.92 


173.0 


9.8 


0.5 


9.4 


182.4 


0.0 


1984/85 


58.8 


3.13 


184.1 


7.5 


5.7 


1.9 


185.9 


0.0 


1985/86 3/ 


57.1 


2.97 


169.7 


6.7 


5.9 


0.8 


170.5 


0.0 


1986/87 4/ 


58.3 


3.11 


181.1 


7.5 


5.2 


2.3 


183.4 


0.0 


1978/79 


29.2 


1.84 


53.8 


8.0 


0.0 


8.0 


61.9 


0.0 


1979/80 


29.4 


2.13 


62.7 


8.9 


0.0 


8.9 


71.6 


0.0 


1980/81 


29.2 


1.89 


55.2 


13.8 


0.0 


13.8 


69.0 


0.0 


1981/82 


28.3 


2.11 


59.6 


13.2 


0.0 


13.2 


72.8 


0.0 


1982/83 


27.9 


2.45 


68.4 


13.0 


0.0 


13.0 


81.4 


0.0 


1983/84 


29.1 


2.80 


81.4 


9.6 


0.0 


9.6 


91.0 


0.0 


1984/85 


2'. 6 


2.97 


87.8 


7.4 


0.0 


7.4 


95.2 


0.0 


1985/86 3/ 


29.6 


2.88 


85.3 


6.3 


0.0 


6.3 


91.6 


0.0 


1986/87 4/ 


30.0 


2.92 


87.5 


7.0 


0.0 


7.0 


94.5 


0.0 


fllNS 5/ 


















1978/79 


33.5 


2.36 


79.0 


3.1 


0.1 


3.0 


82.0 


0.0 


1979/80 


33.7 


2.47 


83.1 


2.0 


0.1 


1.9 


85.0 


0.0 


1980/81 


31.7 


2.60 


82.4 


0.9 


0.2 


0.7 


83.2 


0.0 


1981/82 


30.7 


2.59 


79.5 


1.3 


0.2 


1.1 


80.6 


0.0 


1982/83 


29.8 


2.73 


81.6 


2.7 


0.1 


2.6 


84.2 


0.0 


1983/84 


30.1 


3.04 


91.6 


0.2 


0.5 


-0.2 


91.4 


0.0 


1984/85 


29.2 


3.30 


96.2 


0.1 


5.7 


-5.6 


90.7 


0.0 


1985/86 3/ 


27.5 


3.07 


84.4 


0.4 


5.9 


-5.5 


78.9 


0.0 


1986/87 4/ 


28.3 


3.31 


93.6 


0.5 


5.2 


-4.7 


88.9 


0.0 



1/ FEED USE DATA ARE UNAVAILABLE FOR CHINA. 

21 FOR CHINA, UTILIZATION ESTINATES REPRESENT "APPARENT" UTILIZATION, I.E. THEY INCLUDE ANNUAL STOCK LEVEL 

ADJUSTMENTS THOUGH NO STOCKS DATA ARE AVAILABLE. 
3/ PRELIMINARY. 
4/ PROJECTION. 

5/ COARSE GRAINS INCLUDE BARLEY, RYE, OATS, CORN, SORGHUH, AND HILLET. EXCLUDED ARE MISCELLANEOUS GRAINS, 
PULSES AND RICE. 

SOURCES: PREPARED OR ESTIMATED ON BASIS OF OFFICIAL STATISTICS OF FOREIGN GOVERNMENTS, OTHER FOREIGN SOURCE 
MATERIALS, REPORTS OF U.S. AGRICULTURAL ATTACHES AND FOREIGN SERVICE OFFICERS, RESULTS OF OFFICE RESEARCH, 
AND RELATED INFORMATION. 

COMMODITY PROGRAMS, FAS, USDA GRAIN AND FEED DIVISION 



22 



HHEftT: SUPPLY AND DISAPPEARANCE 
U.S. AND MAJOR COMPETITORS 

1979/80 - 1934/87 
MILLION METRIC TONS/HECTARES 





AREA 


YIELD PRODUCTION 


DOMESTIC 


-- EKPORTS 


1/ -- 


MKT YEAR 2/ 




HARVESTED 






USE 


JUL/JUN 


MKY YEAR 


END STOCKS 




CANADA (MARKETING YEAR AUG/JUL) 












1979/30 


1 A C 

10. 5 


1.64 


17.2 


5.5 


15.0 


15.9 


10.7 


1980/81 


11.1 


1.74 


19.3 


5.2 


17.0 


16.3 


8.6 


19S1/82 


12.4 


2.00 


24.8 


5.2 


17.6 


18.4 


9,8 


1982/83 


12.0 


2.13 


26.7 


5.1 


21.4 


21.4 


10,0 


1983/84 


IT T 

13.7 


1.94 


26.5 


5.6 


21.8 


21.8 


9.2 


1984/85 


13.2 


1.61 


21.2 


5.2 


19.4 


17.6 


7.6 


1985/86 3/ 


13.7 


1.75 


23.9 


5.8 


17.0 


18.0 


7.7 


1986/87 4/ 


14.2 


1.90 


27.0 


5.5 


19.5 


19.5 


9.7 




AUSTRALIA iHARKETING 


YEAR OCT/SEPT) 










1979/80 


11.2 


1.45 


16.2 


3,4 


15.0 


13.2 


4.3 


1980/81 


11.3 


0.96 


10.9 


3.5 


10.6 


9.6 


2.0 


1981/82 


11.9 


1.38 


16.4 


2.6 


11.0 


11.0 


4.8 


1982/83 


11.5 


0.77 


8.9 


4,1 


8. 1 


7.3 


2.3 


1983/84 


12.9 


1.70 


22.0 


3.4 


10.6 


13.3 


7.5 


1984/85 


12.1 


1.55 


18.7 


3,7 


15.3 


14.0 


8.5 


1985/86 3/ 


11.7 


1.37 


16,1 


3.2 


15.7 


15.5 


5.8 


1986/87 4/ 


11.8 


1.30 


15.3 


3.1 


14.5 


14.5 


3.5 




ARGENTINA (MARKETIN6 YEAfi DEC/NOV) 










1979/80 


4.8 


1.69 


8.1 


4.0 


4.8 


4.8 


0.4 


1980/81 


5.0 


1.55 


7.8 


4.0 


3.9 


3.8 


0.4 


1981/82 


5.9 


1.40 


8.3 


4.3 


4.3 


3.6 


0.8 


1982/83 


7.3 


2.05 


15.0 


4.B 


7.5 


9.9 


1.1 


1983/84 


6.9 


1.85 


11. 0 


4.7 


9.7 


7.8 


1.3 


1984/85 


6.0 


2.22 


13.2 


4.6 


B.O 


9.4 


0.5 


1985/86 ii 


5.3 


1.61 


8.5 


4.4 


6.1 


4.2 


0.4 


1986/87 4/ 


5.! 


1.90 


9.6 


4.5 


4.6 


5.1 


0.4 




TOTAL COMPETITORS 














1979/80 


26.5 


1.57 


41.5 


12.9 


34. S 


33.9 


15.4 


4 n rn\ iff 4 

1980/81 


27.4 


1.38 


37.9 


12.6 


31.5 


29.7 


11.0 


1981/82 


30.2 


1.64 


49.5 


12.1 


32.9 


33.1 


15.3 


1982/83 


31.4 


1.61 


50.6 


14.0 


37.0 


38.5 


13.4 


1983/84 


33.5 


1.83 


61.3 


13.7 


42.0 


43.0 


18.0 


1984/85 


31.2 


1.70 


53.1 


13.5 


42.7 


41.0 


16.5 


1985/86 ^/ 


30.7 


1.58 


46.4 


13.4 


38.8 


37.7 


13.8 


1986/87 4/ 


31.0 


1.67 


51.9 


13.1 


38.6 


39. 1 


13.6 




U.S. (MARKETING YEAR JUN/MAY) 












1979/80 


25.3 


2.30 


58.1 


21.3 


37,2 


37.4 


24.5 


1980/81 


28.8 


2.25 


64.8 


21.3 


41.9 


41.2 


26.9 


1981/82 


32.6 


2.32 


75.8 


23.1 


48.8 


48.2 


31.5 


1982/83 


31.5 


2.39 


75.3 


24.7 


39.9 


41,1 


41.2 


1963/84 


24.8 


2.65 


65.9 


30.2 


38.9 


38.9 


38.1 


1984/85 


27.1 


2.61 


70.6 


31.4 


38.1 


38.8 


38.8 


1985/86 3/ 


26.2 


2.52 


66.0 


28.6 


25.0 


24.9 


51.7 


1986/87 4/ 


24.9 


2.37 


58,9 


29.3 


30.5 


29.9 


51.6 




TOTAL U.S. AND COMPETITORS 












1979/80 


51.8 


1.92 


99.6 


34.2 


72.0 


71.3 


39.9 


1980/81 


56.2 


1.83 


102.7 


33.9 


73.5 


70.9 


37.9 


1981/82 


62.9 


1.99 


125.3 


35.1 


81.7 


81.3 


46.9 


1982/33 


62.9 


2.00 


125.9 


38.7 


76.9 


79.6 


54.6 


1983/84 


58.4 


2.18 


127.1 


44.0 


80.9 


81.8 


56.0 


1984/85 


58.3 


2.12 


123.7 


44.9 


80.8 


79.7 


55.3 


1985/Bt) 3/ 


56.9 


2.01 


114.4 


42.0 


63.8 


62.6 


65.5 


1986/87 4/ 


55.9 


1.98 


110.8 


42.4 


69.1 


69.0 


65.2 



1/ INCLUDES THE liHEAT EQUIVALENT OF FLOUR. 

2/ NET CHANGES IN FARM STOCKS FOR ARGENTINA AND AUSTRALIA ARE REFLECTED IN DOMESTIC DISAPPEARANCE. 
3/ PRELIMINARY. 
4/ PROJECTED. 

SOURCES: PREPARED Oft ESTIMATED ON BASIS OF OFFICIAL STATISTICS OF FOREIGN GOVERNMENTS, OTHER FOREIGN SOURCE 
MATERIALS. REPORTS OF U.S. AGRICULTURAL ATTACHES AND FOREIGN SERVICE OFFICERS, RESULTS OF OFFICE RESEARCH, 
AND RELATED INFORMATION. 



COMfiODIlV PROGRAMS, FAS, USDA GRAIN AND FEED DIVISION 



23 



SELECTED COARSE GRAINS 
MAJOR FOREIGN EXPORTERS 
PRODUCTION YEARS 1979 - 1986 
THOUSANDS OF METRIC TONS/HECTARES 





AREA YIELD PRODUCTION 


DOMESTIC 


- EXPORTS - 


ENDING 




HARVESTED 




USE 


OCT/SEP 


MKT YEAR 


STOCKS 


ADCCL'T T MA 


GRAIN SORGHUM (MAR/FEB) 












(79) 1980/81 


1279 2.31 


2960 


1585 


4860 


1494 


22 


(80) 1961/82 


2100 3.38 


7100 


2050 


5216 


4940 


132 


(811 1982/83 


2510 3.19 


8000 


2090 


4931 


5544 


498 


(82) 1983/84 


2520 3.02 


7600 


2700 


4788 


5197 


201 


(83) 1984/85 


2370 3.04 


7200 


3200 


3360 


4134 


67 


(841 1985/86 


1987 2.97 


5900 


2500 


2200 


3227 


240 


(85) 1986/87 1/ 


1350 3.33 


4500 


2500 


1700 


2000 


240 


(86) 1987/88 21 


1400 3.00 


4200 


2500 




1700 


240 


AMCTDAi TA 
HUD 1 i\HLln 


GRAIN SORGHUM (HAR/FEB) 












(79) 1980/81 


519 1.78 


922 


367 


510 


506 


183 


(80) 1981/82 


658 1.83 


1204 


466 


1238 


856 


65 


(81) 1982/83 


649 2.03 


1317 


366 


281 


961 


55 


(82) 1983/84 


707 1.36 


958 


701 


1364 


282 


30 


(83) 1984/85 


730 2.58 


1885 


304 


1196 


1553 


58 


(84) 1985/86 


723 1.89 


1369 


331 


1000 


1086 


10 


(85) 1986/87 1/ 


728 1.72 


1255 


305 


975 


950 


10 


(86) 1987/88 2/ 


700 1.66 


1300 


350 




950 


10 




CORN (MAR/FEB) 












(79) 1980/81 


2490 2.57 


6400 


3048 


9016 


3417 


lOB 


(80) 1981/82 


3394 3.80 


12900 


3700 


4922 


9098 


210 


(81) 1982/83 


3170 3.03 


9600 


3500 


6483 


5765 


545 


(82) 1983/84 


2970 3.03 


9000 


3200 


5885 


6056 


289 


(83) 1984/85 


3025 3.04 


9200 


3950 


7043 


5448 


91 


(84) 1935/86 


3350 3.43 


11500 


4075 


9500 


7195 


321 


(85) 1986/87 1/ 


3500 3.71 


13000 


3700 


6500 


9300 


321 


(86) 1987/88 2/ 


3500 3.57 


12500 


3700 




8800 


321 


DUUin HriMUH 


CORN (MAY/APR) 












(79) 1980/81 


4322 2.50 


10794 


6757 


3930 


3444 


1952 


(80) 1981/82 


4339 3.38 


14645 


7097 


4700 


4955 


4545 


181) 1982/83 


4278 1.95 


8355 


7663 


2300 


4034 


1333 


(82) 1983/84 


4065 1.00 


4083 


7525 


75 


236 


42 


(83) 1984/85 


3953 1,11 


4405 


6162 


500 


9 


264 


(84) 1985/86 


38B7 2.00 


7755 


6188 


1000 


406 


1625 


iS5) 1986/87 1/ 


4000 2.00 


8000 


6545 


1975 


2175 


905 


(86) 1987/88 2/ 


4150 2.17 


9000 


6550 




2500 


855 


TUATI AUn 
InHlLHrtU 


CORN (JUL/JUN) 












(79) 1979/80 


1424 2.32 


3300 


1050 


2067 


2150 


153 


(801 1980/81 


1450 2.21 


3200 


1108 


2113 


2142 


103 


(81) 1981/82 


1750 2.49 


4350 


1050 


3260 


3260 


143 


(82) 1982/83 


1850 1.86 


3450 


1160 


2136 


2136 


297 


(83) 1983/84 


1B25 2.16 


3950 


1300 


3026 


2846 


101 


(84) 1984/85 


1955 2.23 


4350 


1167 


3010 


3180 


107 


(85) 1985/66 1/ 


2150 2.40 


5150 


1150 


3500 


3500 


607 


(861 19f-/87 21 


2000 2.35 


4700 


1250 


3275 


3600 


457 




BARLEY (NOV/OCT) 












(79) 1979/80 


2482 1.49 


3703 


1357 


2900 


2824 


55 


(80) 1980/81 


2451 1.09 


2682 


831 


1540 


1781 


125 


(81) 1981/82 


2685 1.26 


3450 


1266 


1702 


2259 


50 


(82) 1982/83 


2452 0.79 


1939 


1015 


600 


884 


90 


(83) 1983/64 


3109 1.57 


4890 


610 


3721 


4117 


53 


(84) 1984/65 


3518 1.58 


5554 


914 


4660 


4640 


53 


(85) 1985/86 1/ 


3483 1.38 


4600 


900 


4000 


3860 


93 


(86) 1986/87 2/ 


3000 1.30 


3900 


900 


2600 


3000 


93 


UHilHUH 


BARLEY (AUG/JUL) 












(79) 1979/80 


3724 2.27 


8460 


7537 


2963 


3832 


2006 


(80) 1980/81 


4634 2.43. 


11259 


6835 


4012 


3236 


3203 


(61) !981/82 


5476 2.51 


13724 


7046 


5543 


5722 


4161 


(82) 1982/83 


5149 2.71 


13966 


7275 


6071 


5648 


5204 


(83) 1963/84 


4353 2.35 


10209 


7906 


4240 


5536 


1971 


(84) 1984/85 


4566 2.25 


10296 


7464 


2454 


2781 


2022 


(85) 1985/86 1/ 


4752 2.58 


12247 


7540 


3500 


3500 


3229 


(86) 1966/87 2/ 


4600 2.61 


12000 


7800 


4235 


4200 


3229 


NOTE: YEARS IN PARENTHESES DENOTE PRODUCTION YEARS USED FOR AGGREGATING HORLD CROPS. SPLIT 


YEARS 





(E.G. 1982/63) ARE MARKETING YEARS. 

1/ PRELIMINARY. 
2/ PROJECTED. 

SOURCES! PREPARED OR ESTIMATED ON BASIS OF OFFICIAL STATISTICS OF FOREIGN GOVERNMENTS, OTHER FOREIGN SOURCE 
MATERIALS, REPORTS OF U.S. AGRICULTURAL ATTACHES AMD FOREIGN SERVICE OFFICERS, RESULTS OF OFFICE RESEARCH, 
AND RELATED INFORMATION. 

COMMODITY PROGRAMS, FAS, USDA GRAIN AND FEED DIVISION 



24 



U.S. WHEAT AND COARSE GRAINS 
MILLION METRIC TONS/HECTARES 
MARKET YEARS 1970/71 - 1986/87 



WHEAT 



COARSE 





BEGINNING 


AREA 


YIELD 


PRODUCTION 


IMPORTS 


EXPORTS 


DOMESTIC 


DOMESTIC 




STOCKS 


HARVESTED 










FOR FEED 


TOTAL USE 


im COARSE GRAINS 


















1970/71 


72.9 


58.4 


3.1 


182.9 


0.4 


38.8 


132.2 


162.8 


1971/72 


54.6 


62.9 


3.7 


233.6 


0.3 


40.5 


143.1 


174.7 


1972/73 


73.4 


57.5 


3.9 


224.1 


0.4 


69.1 


147.8 


180.9 


1973/74 


47.9 


63.5 


3.7 


233.4 


0.3 


73.8 


143.0 


176.7 


1974/75 


31.1 


67.2 


3.0 


199.4 


0.6 


63.6 


101.5 


135.1 


1975/76 


32.3 


70.7 


3.4 


243.3 


0.5 


81.2 


116.6 


153.6 


1976/77 


41.3 


72.0 


3.5 


252.9 


0.4 


76.0 


115.6 


153.0 


1977/78 


65.6 


71.2 


3.7 


261.4 


0.4 


86.2 


122.2 


160.3 


1978/79 


81.0 


66.1 


4.1 


270.4 


0.3 


92.0 


138.9 


178.2 


1979/80 


81.5 


67.1 


4.4 


296.5 


0.4 


108.4 


142.2 


182.8 


1980/81 


88.7 


70.1 


3.8 


263.1 


0.4 


111.9 


125.6 


169.0 


1981/82 


71.2 


76.1 


4.2 


322.4 


0.4 


108.2 


131.2 


176.3 


1982/83 


109.6 


74.8 


4.4 


326.0 


0.6 


94.1 


144.6 


192.1 


1983/84 


149.9 


57.7 


3.5 


203.0 


0.8 


95.5 


130.2 


180.3 


1984/85 


77.9 


70.6 


4.4 


308.3 


i.l 


95.4 


142.6 


195.2 


1985/86 


96.8 


71.6 


4.8 


340.3 


1.2 


61.0 


143.9 


199.2 


1986/87 


178.1 


66.5 


4.6 


304.0 


0.7 


76.4 


142.9 


199.2 


1987/88 


207.2 
















1970/71 


26.8 


17.7 


2.1 


36. B 


0.0 


20.2 


5.3 


21.0 


1971/72 


22.4 


19.3 


2.3 


44.1 


0.0 


16.3 


7.1 


23.4 


1972/73 


26.8 


19.1 


2.2 


42.1 


0.0 


30.4 


5.5 


22.3 


1973/74 


16.2 


21.9 


2.1 


46.6 


O.l 


33.1 


3.5 


20.5 


1974/75 


9,3 


26.5 


1.8 


48.5 


0.1 


27.7 


1.1 


18.3 


1975/76 


11.8 


28.1 


2.1 


57.9 


0.1 


31.9 


1.0 


19.7 


1976/77 


18.1 


28.7 


2.0 


58. 5 


0.1 


25.9 


2.0 


20.5 


1977/78 


30.3 


27.0 


2.1 


55.7 


O.l 


30.6 


5.3 


23.4 


1978/79 


32.1 


22.9 


2.1 


48.3 


0.0 


32.5 


4.3 


22.8 


1979/80 


25.1 


25.3 


2.3 


58.1 


0.1 


37.4 


2.3 


21.3 


1960/81 


24.5 


28.8 


2.3 


64.8 


0.1 


41.2 


1.6 


21.3 


1981/82 


26.9 


32.6 


2.3 


75.8 


o.l 


48.2 


3.6 


23.1 


1982/83 


31.5 


31.5 


2.4 


75.3 


0.2 


41.1 


5.3 


24.7 


1983/84 


41.2 


24.8 


2.7 


65.9 


0.1 


38.9 


10.2 


30.2 


1984/85 


38.1 


27.1 


2.6 


70.6 


0.3 


38.8 


11. 1 


31.4 


1985/86 


38.8 


26.2 


2.5 


66.0 


0.4 


24.9 


7.8 


28.6 


1966/87 


51.7 


24.9 


2.4 


58.9 


O.l 


29.9 


8.2 


29.3 


1987/88 


51.6 
















GRAINS 


















1970/71 


46.1 


40.7 


3.6 


146.1 


0.4 


18.0 


126.9 


141.8 


1971/72 


32.2 


43. 6 


4.3 


189.5 


0.3 


24.2 


136.0 


151.3 


1972/73 


46.6 


38.4 


4.7 


182.0 


0.4 


38.7 


142.3 


158.6 


1973/74 


31.7 


41.6 


4.5 


186.8 


0.2 


40.7 


139.5 


156.2 


1974/75 


21.6 


40.7 


3. 7 


150.9 


0.5 


35.9 


100.4 


116.8 


1975/76 


20.5 


42.6 


4.4 


185.4 


0.4 


49.3 


115.6 


133.9 


1976/77 


23.2 


43.3 


4.5 


194.4 


0.3 


50.1 


113.6 


132.5 


1977/78 


35.3 


44.2 


4.7 


205.7 


0.3 


55.6 


116.9 


136.9 


1978/79 


48.9 


43.2 


5.1 


222. 1 


0.3 


59.5 


134.6 


155.4 


1979/80 


56.4 


41.8 


5.7 


238.4 


0.3 


71.0 


139.9 


161.5 


1980/81 


64 1 


41.3 


4 fi 


198.3 


0.3 


70.7 


124.0 


147.7 


1981/82 


44.3 


43.4 


5.7 


246.6 


0.3 


60.0 


127.6 


153.5 


1932/83 


78.0 


43.2 


5.8 


250.7 


0.4 


53.0 


139.5 


167.4 


1983/84 


108.7 


32.9 


4.2 


137.1 


0.7 


56.6 


120.0 


150.1 


1964/85 


39.9 


43.6 


5.5 


237.7 


0.8 


56.6 


131.5 


165.8 


1985/86 


58.0 


45.4 


6.0 


274.3 


0.8 


36.1 


136.1 


170.6 


1986/87 


126.4 


41.6 


5.9 


245.1 


0.5 


46.5 


134.7 


170.0 



1987/88 155.6 

NOTES: COARSE GRAINS INCLUDE CORN, SORGHUM, BAR EY, OATS AND RYE. 
SOURCE: OFFICIAL USDA STATISTICS OR ESTIMATES. 
COMMODITY PROGRAMS, FAS, USDA 



?5 



U.S. WHEAT, CORU, SORGHUM, BARLEY, OATS, AND RYE SUPPLY/DISTRIBUTIUM 
MILLION BUSHELS/MILLION ACRES 



Beginning 
Stocks 



Harvested 
Area 



Yield Production Imports Exports Feed Usage 



Total 
Domestic Use 



Wheat 



1976/77 


666 


70. 9 


0O.3 


2,149 


3 


950 


79 


7!>5 


1977/78 


1,113 


66.7 


30.7 


2,046 


2 


1,124 


192 


859 


1978/79 


1,178 


56.5 


31.4 


1,776 


2 


1,194 


158 


837 


1 979/80 


924 


o2.5 


34 ,2 


0 1 Oil 

2,134 


2 


1 ,37o 


86 


783 


1 980/81 


902 


71 .1 


33.5 


2,381 


3 


1 ,514 


60 


783 


1981/82 


989 


80.6 


34. 5 


2,785 


3 


1 ,771 


135 


847 


1 982/83 


1 ,159 


77.9 


35.5 


2,765 


8 


1 ,509 


195 


908 


1 983/84 


1 ,51 5 


61 .4 


39.4 


2,420 


4 


1 ,429 


369 


1 ,111 


1 984/85 


1 ,399 


00.9 


38.8 


2,595 


10 


1 ,424 


409 


1 ,154 


1 985/85 


1 ,425 


o4./ 


37.5 


2,425 


15 


915 


287 


1 ,050 


1 986/87 


1 ,900 






2,166 


4 


1 ,100 


300 


1 ,U75 


1 987/88 


1 ,896 
















Corn 


















1 Q7C /77 




71 K 
/ 1 . 3 


00. U 


0 ,^oy 


0 


1 C7 
1 ,00/ 


3,oyu 


A 1 J 0 

4,133 




1,136 


70.6 


92.1 


6,505 


3 


1,909 


3,717 


4,298 




1,436 


71.9 


101.0 


7,268 


] 


2,124 


4,264 


4,872 




1 71 n 

I , / 1 u 


7? d 




/ , J CO 




t ,4 1 0 


4, 04y 


c 1 ao 
0 , 1 oy 


1 yoU/o 1 


c ,Uj4 


/o.U 


y 1 .0 


a c OQ 
5,53y 




0 A no 

2 ,40o 


A T C7 

4,15/ 


4,875 


1 QQT /Q9 


1 "309 


/■t.O 


1 no Q 

1 uo . y 


0 , M y 




9 m n 


4, 1 oy 


4,955 


1 JOC/OO 


(1 ,00/ 


■79 7 


\\i .i. 


O,^J0 




1 Q 0/1 

1 ,oo4 


A COT 

4,0^ 1 


5,41 0 


1 yoo/o4 


0 ,3^0 


31.9 


0 1 . 1 


>1 1 7C 
4,1/0 


0 
0 


1 Qno 


3 ,0 i 0 


4,793 


1 yo4/oo 


1 ,uuo 


71 0 


1 uo . / 


7 A74 
/ ,0/4 


4 


1 QCC 
1 ,000 


4, 1 1 0 


c 1 7n 
0, 1 /U 


1 yoo/oo 


T CA Q 
1 ,040 


7C 1 


1 1 £3 n 


o,oOo 


c 
9 


1 99 1. 

1 ,220 


4, 15U 


5 , 280 


1 yoo/o/ 


4 , U 1 o 






7 01 n 
/ ,y 1 u 


1 


1 ccn 
1 ,oou 


A 9nn 


C OCTi 
0,O0U 


1 QQ7 /QQ 


C n9yl 
0,U^4 
















SorghuBi 


















1 q'/C /77 

1 y /D/ / / 


4y 


14.9 


4y .U 


711 
/ 1 1 




'id A 

254 


A A Ci 

449 


459 


1977/78 


47 


13.8 


56.6 


781 


_ 


223 


436 


447 


1978/79 


157 


13.4 


54.5 


731 


- 


190 


540 


552 


1 Q7Q /on 


\ hO 




DC.O 


oU/ 




JoU 


A [lA 

4y4 


bUo 


1 non /o 1 


1 18 




45.3 


C7Q 

5/9 




293 


336 


347 


1981/82 


CI 

5/ 


13.7 


64.0 


07c 

8/5 




260 


416 


427 


T no o /o o 

1 982/83 


247 


14.1 


59.1 


835 




210 


475 


485 


T no o / o ji 

1983/84 


387 


10.0 


48. 7 


48ti 




245 


412 


422 


1984/85 


287 


15.3 


56.4 


866 




297 


539 


557 


1 985/86 


300 


16./ 


55.7 


1,113 




1 75 


650 


680 


1986/87 


558 






850 




240 


575 


605 


T noT /oo 

1 987/88 


563 
















Bar! ey 




















\£.0 


Q A 
0.4 


40. 0 


JOO 


1 1 


00 


1 79 


.3oU 


1977/78 


126 


9.7 


44.0 


428 


9 


57 


177 


333 


1978/79 


173 


9.2 


49.2 


455 


10 


26 


217 


384 


1 mn /on 

1 979/80 


228 


7.5 


50.9 


383 


12 


55 


204 


376 


1 QQn /Q T 


1 y^ 


7 1 


4y . / 


00 1 


lU 


77 


1 '7 A 
1 / 4 


Oil n 

349 


1 <3ftl /fi? 

1 1 / 


1 ^7 


Q Q 


W? 4 


474 


10 


100 

1 WW 


1 Q8 


0/ c 


1982/83 


148 


9.0 


57.2 


516 


11 


47 


241 


411 


1983/84 


217 


9.7 


52.3 


509 


7 


92 


283 


452 


1984/85 


189 


11.2 


53.4 


599 


10 


11 


304 


474 


1 985/86 


247 


11 .5 


51 .0 


589 


9 


22 


332 


4i>9 


1 986/87 


350 






660 




45 


300 


475 


1 987/88 


325 
















Oats 


















1976/77 


205 


11.8 


45.9 


540 


2 


10 


490 


573 


1977/78 


164 


13.5 


55.6 


753 


2 


12 


509 


594 


1 y /o/ /y 


■Sii 


1 1 . 1 


CO Q 
0^ .0 


Cs39 
00 d 


1 


1 0 
i 0 


C9C 

o2o 


6U9 


1979/80 


280 


9.7 


54.4 


527 


1 


4 


492 


568 


1 non /o 1 

1 980/81 


DOC 

235 


0./ 


io .0 


j4 C A 

459 


1 


T 0 

1 0 


A 0 0 

432 


5Uo 


1 noT /oo 

1 98 1 /8Z 


1 77 
1 / / 


9.4 


CA 0 

o4.2 


ci n 
OlO 


z 


7 
/ 


A CA 

4o4 


53U 


T noo / o o 

1 982/83 


1 52 


10.3 


C 7 0 

5/ .8 


CrtO 

593 


4 


3 


A Al 

441 


326 


T n O "3 /OA 

1 983/84 


220 


9. 1 


CO c 

52.5 


/4 77 

4// 


30 


0 
2 


A 

466 


544 


1 no yl / o c 

1 984/8b 


181 


o.Z 


CO n 
00.0 


4/4 


0 ii 
34 


1 


it 0 0 
433 


oUo 


T no c /oc 

1 985/85 


180 


8.2 


CO c 

53 . 5 


51 9 


28 


2 


458 


CA 1 

541 


1 986/87 


1 92 






530 


25 


2 


450 


535 


1 n m /on 

1 987/88 


183 
















Rye 

1 976/77 


4 


0.7 


21 .4 


15 






5 


15 


1977/78 


4 


0.7 


24.4 


17 


- 


- 


7 


17 


1 Q7Q /7Q 

1 y /o/ /y 


A 


n Q 

U.9 


n 

<:o.U 


9A 






0 
0 


1u 


1979/80 


9 


0 9 


25. 7 


22 




2 


7 


17 


1980/81 


12 


0.7 


24.6 


16 




8 


7 


16 


1981/82 


4 


0.7 


26.6 


18 




2 


8 


18 


1982/83 


3 


0.7 


28.9 


20 


3 




10 


20 


1983/84 


5 


0.9 


30.3 


27 


2 


1 


12 


22 


1984/85 


11 


1.0 


33.1 


33 


1 


1 


14 


24 


1985/86 


20 


0.7 


28.8 


21 


2 


1 


13 


24 


1986/87 


18 






23 


1 


1 


13 


23 


1987/88 


19 
















Notes: Commodity Years 


As Fol lows: 


June/May- 


(Jheat, Barley, 


Oats and Rye; Octobe 


f/September 


-Corn and 



"-" Denotes zero. 

Source: World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates No. 193, July 11, 1986 



c +> 
O iA 
•1- 3 
+-> 13) 
3 3 
0) -Q < 
O T- >— 
•I- t. 

Qi -M r«. 
(/) 00 

(/> a 

• ^co 
= >>a) 



00 r- 

o 

O) 



o 

(J •!- 

r- +J 
■M « 
(/> N 
1> -r- 
E r- 
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27 



HORLD VHEAT MD COARSE GRAINS 
SUPPLY/DEHAND 1960/61-1986/87 
niLLIONS [IF HETRIC TONS/HECTARES 



NHEAT 



COARSE 





AREA 


YIELD 


PRODUCTION 


NORLO 


UTILIZATION 


ENDING 


STOCKS AS 




HARVESTED 






TRADE 1/ 


TOTAL 2/ 


STOCKS 3/ 


I OF UTIL 


AND COARSE ERAINS 
















1960/61 


526.6 


1.30 


666.3 


65.9 


672.0 


191.5 


28.5 


1961/62 


525.6 


I.2S 


659.0 


76.8 


685.6 


164.9 


24.0 


1962/63 


527. B 


1.3S 


711.4 


75.4 


709.6 


166.6 


23.5 


1963/64 


531.2 


1.32 


701.7 


90.0 


702.6 


165.7 


23.6 


1964/65 


537.7 


1.38 


743.5 


67.0 


742.0 


167.2 


22.5 


1965/66 


S35.& 


1.40 


746.0 


103.0 


782.1 


130.4 


16.7 


1966/67 


534.7 


l.SS 


827.2 


96.0 


799.3 


158.3 


19.8 


1967/68 


545.7 


1.5S 


848.4 


89.9 


830.8 


175.9 


21.2 


1968/69 


549.8 


1.61 


883.5 


82.0 


854.4 


205.0 


24.0 


1969/70 


548.2 


1.62 


8B5.6 


89.1 


902.6 


188.0 


20.8 


1970/71 


538.3 


1.65 


888.8 


101.0 


929.4 


147.5 


15.9 


1971/72 


545.4 


l.BO 


980.1 


101.3 


959.7 


167.9 


17.5 


1972/73 


536.8 


i.n 


951.3 


126.2 


986. 6 


132.4 


13.4 


1973/74 


561.2 


1.86 


1044.5 


134.0 


1040.4 


136.0 


13.1 


1974/75 


562.0 


1.76 


991.4 


129.3 


996.1 


129.8 


13.0 


1975/76 


574.7 


1.74 


1002.8 


141.9 


1001.6 


128.7 


12.6 


1976/77 


577.9 


1.95 


1126.2 


147.1 


1071.9 


183.3 


17,1 


1977/78 


573.5 


1.89 


1085.8 


161.6 


1090.3 


178.3 


16,4 


1978/79 


572.7 


2.10 


1202.0 


164.7 


1177.1 


203.0 


17.2 


1979/BO 


571.5 


2.04 


1168.4 


185.2 


1187.7 


183.7 


15.5 


1980/81 


579.4 


2.03 


1175.9 


202.1 


980.0 


168.8 


17.2 


1981/82 


588.4 


2.07 


1216.9 


197.9 


1179.8 


207.7 


17.6 


1982/83 


577.3 


2.18 


1257.4 


188.6 


1219.0 


246.1 


20.2 


1983/84 


563.9 


2.08 


1175.4 


193.8 


1246.3 


175.4 


14.1 


1984/85 


571.0 


2.32 


1325.0 


207.9 


1280.2 


220.1 


17.2 


1985/86 4/ 


572,6 


2.35 


1345.5 


168.5 


1269.5 


296.1 


23.3 


1986/ 87 5/ 


570.1 


2.32 


1322.3 


181.7 


1293.6 


324.9 


25.1 


1960/61 


202.2 


1.18 


238.4 


41.9 


234.8 


81.8 


34.8 


1961/62 


203.5 


1.10 


224.8 


46.8 


236.4 


70.2 


29.7 


1962/63 


206.9 


1.22 


251.8 


44.3 


248.1 


74.0 


29.8 


1963/64 


206.3 


1.13 


233.9 


56.0 


240.0 


67.6 


28.3 


1964/65 


215.9 


1.25 


270.4 


52.0 


262.0 


76.2 


29.1 


1965/66 


215.5 


1.22 


263.3 


61.0 


281.6 


55.3 


19.6 


1966/67 


213.6 


1.44 


306.7 


56.0 


279.8 


82.1 


29.4 


1967/68 


219.2 


1.36 


297.6 


51.0 


289.1 


90.6 


31.3 


1968/69 


223.9 


1.48 


330.8 


45.0 


306.4 


115.0 


37.5 


1969/70 


217.8 


1.42 


310.0 


50.0 


327.3 


97.8 


29.9 


1970/71 


207.0 


1.52 


313.7 


55.0 


337.2 


74.3 


22.0 


1971/72 


212.9 


1.65 


351.0 


52.0 


344.3 


61.0 


23.5 


1972/73 


211.0 


1.63 


343.4 


67.0 


361.6 


62.6 


17.3 


1973/74 


217.1 


1.72 


373.2 


63.0 


365.6 


70.2 


19.2 


1974/75 


220.1 


1.64 


360.2 


64.3 


366.6 


63.7 


17.4 


1975/76 


225.4 


1.58 


356.6 


66.7 


356.3 


64.2 


18.0 


1976/77 


233.2 


1.81 


421.4 


63.3 


385.9 


99.8 


25.9 


1977/78 


227 1 


1.69 


384. 1 


72i8 


399.4 


84.2 


21. 1 


1978/79 


228.9 


1.95 


446.8 


72.0 


430.2 


100.9 


23.4 


1979/80 


228.3 


1.86 


424.5 


86.0 


444.3 


81.0 


18.2 


1980/81 


237.0 


1.67 


443.0 


94.1 


445.6 


78.2 


17.5 


1981/82 


238.7 


1.68 


448.4 


101.3 


441.5 


85.0 


19.3 


1982/83 


237.5 


2.02 


479.1 


98.7 


467.9 


96.3 


20.6 


1983/84 


229.1 


2.14 


490.9 


102.0 


486.4 


100.9 


20.7 


1984/65 


231.3 


2.23 


515.6 


106.9 


500.2 


116.4 


23.3 


19B5/B6 4/ 


229i5 


2.19 


502.4 


85.5 


494.4 


124.4 


25.2 


1986/87 5/ 


229.7 


2.19 


504.0 


91.5 


503.1 


125.3 


24.9 


GRAINS 
















1960/61 


324.4 


1.38 


447.9 


24.0 


437.2 


109.7 


25.1 


1961/62 


322.4 


1.35 


434.2 


30.0 


449.3 


94.7 


21.1 


1962/63 


320.9 


1.43 


459.5 


31.0 


461.5 


92.7 


20,1 


1963/64 


324.9 


1.44 


467.6 


34.0 


462.6 


97.9 


21.2 


1964/65 


321.8 


1.47 


473.1 


35.0 


480.0 


91.0 


18.9 


1965/66 


320.1 


1.51 


484.7 


42.0 


500.5 


75.2 


15.0 


1966/67 


321.0 


1.62 


520.4 


40.0 


519.5 


76.1 


14.7 


1967/68 


326.5 


1.69 


550.8 


39.0 


541.6 


85.3 


15.7 


1968/69 


325.9 


1.70 


552.7 


37.0 


546.0 


90.0 


16.4 


1969/70 


330.4 


1.74 


575.6 


39.0 


575.4 


90.2 


15.7 


1970/71 


331.3 


1.74 


575.2 


46.0 


592.2 


73.2 


12.4 


1971/72 


332.5 


1.89 


629.1 


49.3 


615.4 


87.0 


14.1 


1972/73 


325.7 


1.87 


607.8 


59.2 


624.6 


69.9 


11.2 


1973/74 


344.1 


1.95 


671.3 


71.0 


674.8 


65.8 


9.7 


1974/75 


341.9 


1.85 


631.2 


65.0 


629.4 


66.0 


10.5 


1975/76 


349.3 


1.85 


646.1 


75.2 


645.3 


64.5 


10.0 


1976/77 


344.7 


2.04 


704.6 


83.9 


686.1 


63.4 


12.2 


1977/78 


346.4 


2.03 


701.6 


68.6 


690. 9 


94. 1 


13,6 


1978/79 


343.8 


2.20 


755.1 


92.7 


746.9 


102.1 


13.7 


1979/80 


343.2 


2.17 


743.9 


99.2 


743. 3 


102.6 


13.8 


1980/81 


342.4 


2.14 


732.9 


108.0 


745.1 


90.6 


12.2 


1981/82 


349.7 


2.20 


768.5 


96.6 


738.3 


122.7 


16.6 


1982/93 


339.7 


2.29 


778.2 


89.9 


751.1 


149.8 


19.9 


1983/84 


334.8 


2.04 


684.5 


91.9 


759.9 


74.5 


9.8 


1984/85 


339.7 


2.38 


609.3 


101.0 


780.1 


103.7 


13,3 


1985/86 4/ 


343.1 


2.46 


843.1 


63.0 


775.1 


171.6 


22.2 


1986/87 5/ 


340.4 


2.40 


818.2 


90.2 


790.5 


199.5 


25.2 



NOTE: -STOCKS AS PERCENT OF UTILIZATION* REPRESENT THE RATIO OF NARKETING YEAR INDIN6 
STOCKS TO TOTAL UTILIZATION. 

1/ TRADE DATA AS EIPRESSED IN THIS TABLE EICLUDE INTRA-EC TRADE. NHEAT AND COARSE GRAINS 
ARE ON A JULY/OUHE TRADE YEAR THROUGH 1975/76. FROH 1976/77 ON, THE TRADE YEAR FOR 
COARSE BRAINS IS OCTOBER/SEPIEHBER, . 

2, FOR COUNTRIES FOR NHICH STOCKS DATA ARE NOT AVAILABLE IEICLUNIN6 THE USSR) UTILIZATION 
ESTIHATES REPRESENT •APPARENT' UTILIZATION, I.E. INCLOSE ANNUAL STOCK LEVEL ADJUSTNENTS. 

3. STOCKS DATA ARE BASED ON AN A6BREGATE OF DIFFERING LOCAL HARKETING YEARS AND SHOULD NOT 
BE CONSTRUED AS REPRESENTING NORLO STOCK LEVELS AT A FIIED POINT IN TINE. STOCKS DATA 
ARE NOT AVALILABLE FOR ALL COUNTRIES AND EICLUDE THOSE SUCH AS THE PEOPLE S REPUBLIC OF 
CHINA AND fARTS OF EASTERN EUROPE. NORLO SlOCt LEVELS HAVE BEEN ADJUSTED FOR ESTINATEO 
>EAR-TO-(EAR CHANGES IN USSR GRAIN STOCKS, BUT DO NOT PURPORT TO INCLUDE THE ABSOLUTE 
LEVEL OF USSR GRAIN STOCKS. 

4; "RELlHlNARi, 
f PROJECTION. 

SOURCES; PREPARED OR ESTINATEO ON THE BASIS OF OFFICIAL STATISTICS OF FOREIGN GOVERNtlENTS, 
OTHER FOREIGN SOURCE HATERIALS. REPORTS OF U.S. AGRICULTURAL ATTACHES AND FORElbN SERVICE 
OFFICERS. RESULTS OF OF ICE RESEARCH ANl- RELATEIl INFURRAIIDN. 



28 



WORLD RICE 1/ 
SUPPLY/DEMAND 1960/61-1986/87 
MILLIONS OF METRIC TONS/HECTARES 





AREA 


YIELD 11 


PRODUCTION 




CAL YR 


UTILIZATION 


ENDING 


STOCKS AS 




HARVESTED 




ROUGH 


HILLED 


EXPORTS 


TOTAL 3/ 


STOCKS 4/ 


I OF UTIL 


1960/61 


120.1 


1.95 


233.8 


160.0 


6.5 


160.3 


8.0 


5.0 


1961/62 


115.7 


1.86 


215.7 


147.3 


6.3 


147.7 


7.0 


4.8 


1962/63 


119.6 


1.91 


228.2 


155.2 


7.3 


155.3 


6.9 


4.4 


1963/64 


121.5 


2.05 


248.4 


169.1 


7.7 


167.2 


8.7 


5.2 


1964/65 


125.3 


2.12 


265.6 


180.8 


8.2 


177.8 


11.8 


6.6 


1965/66 


124.0 


2.05 


254.2 


173.3 


7.9 


173.1 


12.0 


6.9 


1966/67 


125.7 


2.09 


262.5 


179.3 


7.8 


180.7 


10.6 


5.9 


1967/68 


127.0 


2.19 


277.8 


189.4 


7.2 


186.6 


13.4 


7.2 


1968/69 


128.7 


2.23 


287.0 


195.6 


7.5 


192.3 


16.7 


8.7 


1969/70 


131.4 


2.25 


295.9 


201.6 


6.2 


199.7 


18.6 


9.3 


1970/71 


132.7 


2.36 


313.5 


213.6 


8.6 


214.5 


17.7 


8.3 


1971/72 


134.9 


2.35 


317.5 


216.4 


B.7 


218.8 


15.4 


7.0 


1972/73 


132.7 


2.31 


307.2 


209.6 


8.4 


214.6 


10.4 


4.8 


1973/74 


136.6 


2.45 


334.7 


228.0 


7.7 


225.9 


12.5 


5.5 


1974/75 


137.9 


2.41 


332.0 


226.3 


7.3 


228.2 


10.7 


4.7 


1975/76 


142.7 


2.51 


358.6 


243.9 


8.4 


235.3 


19.3 


8.2 


1976/77 


141.4 


2.46 


348.3 


236.9 


10.6 


238.4 


17.8 


7.4 


1977/78 


143.3 


2.58 


370.0 


251.4 


9.6 


246.4 


22.8 


9.2 


1978/79 


144.1 


2.69 


387.6 


263.7 


12.0 


258.6 


27.9 


10.8 


1979/80 


141.5 


2.67 


378.6 


258.1 


12.7 


262.6 


23.4 


8.9 


1980/81 


144.5 


2.76 


398.9 


271.0 


13.1 


272.3 


22.1 


8.1 


1981/82 


145.2 


2.84 


412.7 


280.6 


11.8 


281.5 


21.3 


7.6 


1982/83 


141.2 


2.97 


419.5 


285.7 


11.9 


289.6 


17.3 


6.0 


1983/84 


144.3 


3.14 


452.7 


308.0 


12.6 


308.1 


17.2 


5.6 


1984/85 


144.0 


3.25 


467.5 


318.3 


11.5 


313.8 


21.7 


6.9 


1985/86 5/ 


142.6 


3.26 


464.7 


316.3 


12.3 


314.0 


24.0 


7.7 


1986/87 6/ 


144.8 


3.25 


471.0 


320.6 


11.9 


321.4 


23.3 


7.2 



NOTE: STOCKS AS PERCENT OF UTILIZATION REPRESENT THE RATION OF MARKETING YEAR ENDING STOCKS TO 
TOTAL UTILIZATION. 

1/ PRODUCTION IS EXPRESSED ON BOTH ROUGH AND MILLED BASES; STOCKS, EXPORTS, AND UTIZIZATION ARE 

EXPRESSED ON A MILLED BASIS. 
2/ YIELDS ARE BASED ON ROUGH PRODUCTION. 

3/ FOR COUNTRIES FOR WHICH STOCKS DATA ARE NOT AVAILABLE UTILIZATION ESTIMATES REPRESENT 
•APPARENT" UTILIZATION, I.E. THEY INCLUDE ANNUAL STOCK LEVEL ADJUSTMENTS. 

4/ STOCKS DATA ARE BASED ON AN AGGREGATE OF DIFFERING MARKET YEARS AND SOULD NOT BE CONSTRUED AS 
REPRESENTING WORLD STOCK LEVELS AT A FIXED POINT IN TIME. STOCKS DATA ARE NOT AVAILABLE FOfi 
ALL COUNTRIES AND EXCLUDE THE USSR, CHINA, NORTH DOREA AND PARTS OF EASTERN EUROPE. 

5/ PRELIMINARY. 

6/ PROJECTION. 

SOURCES: PREPARED OR ESTIMATED ON THE BASIS OF OFFICIAL STATISTICS OF FOREIGN G0BERNHENT3, OTHER 
FOREIGN SOURCE MATERIALS, REPORTS OF U.S. AGRICULTURAL ATTACHES AND FOREIGN SERVICE OFFICERS, 
RESULTS OF OFFICE RESEARCH, AND RELATED INFORMATION. 
« 

COHMODIYT PROGRAMS, FAS, UEDA GRAIN AND FEED DIVISION 



29 



WORLD TOTAL GRAINS 
SUPPLY/DEMAND 1960/61-1986/87 
MILLIONS OF HETRIC TONS/HECTARES 





ADC/i 


V7CI n 


rKuUULl lUN 


unoi n 
NUnLU 


Ul ILlAHl luN 


run I kip 


STOCKS AS 




UADUCCTCn 

HHKVtaltU 






TDAnC 1 / 
IKHiJC 1/ 






A OF UTIL 


iOLi'i / Li 
I7&U/6I 


i. Ai 7 

ono. / 


1 71 
1 . 01 


OAL 7 

ono. 5 


7T A 


071 7 


199.4 


24.0 


1961/0^ 


041.6 


l.z6 


OAi 7 

dU6. 5 


07 1 


077 7 

855.5 


171,9 


20.6 


1/62/65 


LIU A 

64/. 4 


1.54 


OLL C 
066.5 


82.7 


864.9 


17o.5 


20.1 


19tj5/64 


6D<i. 0 


i.3o 


870.7 


97.7 


ft/ n n 

869.9 


174.5 


20.1 


in/ s f i c 

1964/65 


66o>. 0 


1 70 

1.59 


924.5 


95.5 


919.8 


179.0 


19.5 


i n / C ILL 

llbZ'Ibb 


637. 6 


1.40 


001 7 

921.5 


1 1 A 0 

110.9 


955.2 


142.4 


14.9 


1766/6/ 


66U.4 


1 . Ji. 


10U6,4 


1 A7 7 


OOA A 

980.0 


168.9 


17.2 


176/ /6b 


i70 7 


1 . j4 




07 i 

9/. 1 


1 A 1 7 k 

101/. 4 


189.0 


in / 

18.6 




A7R A 
0/0. 


1 ■ J7 




00 

07. J 


1 Afli 7 


T)l 7 
XZl. / 


21.2 


1707/ /U 


A70 A 
0/7.0 


1 Ai'l 
1 . Ov 


1 A07 9 
lUo/ . Z 


07 7 
7/ .0 


1 1 AO 7 


OA! A 


10 7 

Id. / 




A71 () 


t Ai 
i • 01 


lift'' K 
1 Ivx.. J 


lAO A 

IVT. 0 


1 1 17 P 
1 I'M, 0 


1 A«; 0 

lOJ. A 


1 A A 

in. 4 


17/1/ /z 


AHA ''' 
OOv. ^ 


t 7A 
1 • /O 


1 1 OA 
1 170. J 


1 1 A A 
1 1 U . V 


1 1 7Q 
11 /o. D 


1 07 7 


13.6 


1Q7"'/77 


AAQ 
007 • J 


1 7\ 
1 • /O 


1 1 AA 0 
1 lOU. 7 


1 7A A 


1 OA! 0 


1 AO 0 


< 1 0 

11.7 


17/ j/ /"J 


A07 D 
07 / . 0 


1 




1 Al A 
Inl . 0 


1 OAA 7 


( AO 


I f 7 
11. / 


I Q7A/7=; 

II I'M / J 


AOO 0 
077 . 0 


1 7A 
1 . /H 


1017 7 
izl / I / 


1 7A A 


1 004 0 


1 AA A 


1 < R 
11.3 


1 Ql^.llk 
17 1 Ji 10 


717 A 


1 7A 
1 . /I 


I 9AA 7 
lAlO. / 


l«iA 7 
1 JU. 0 


1 07A 0 
iZOO. 7 


1 AO A 


1 0 A 


17/0/ / / 


710 1 
/ 17. 0 


1 OA 

1 ■ 7V 


1 7A7 1 

looo. 1 


1*%7 7 


1 71 A A 


OAl 1 

ZUl . 1 


1 ^ 7 

13.5 


t 077 /70 


7 1 A Q 
/ lO. 0 


1 07 


1 777 9 


171 9 


1 77i 7 
15^0. / 


OAl 1 


1 c; A 
13. U 


17/0/ / 7 


7 1 A D 
/ l0> 0 




1 AAf. 7 

inoj. / 


1 7A 7 
1 /o. / 


\ i7C 7 

H5j. / 


07A 0 


1 i \ 

16. 1 


1 070 /' Ofi 
17/7/01' 


717 A 
/ 1 .J . U 




1 AOL A 

HZo. 0 


t 07 0 
17/ .7 




0A7 1 
ZU/. 1 


i i 7 
14.5 


198U/81 




2.00 


1447.0 


215.2 


1252.3 


190.9 


15.2 


1981/82 


733.6 


2.04 


1497.5 


209.7 


1461.3 


229.0 


15.7 


1982/83 


716.5 


2.15 


1543.1 


200.5 


1508.6 


263.4 


17.5 


1983/84 


708.2 


2.09 


1483.5 


206.4 


1554.4 


192.6 


12.4 


1984/85 


715.0 


2.30 


1643.3 


219.3 


1594.1 


241.9 


15.2 


1985/86 4/ 


715.3 


2.32 


1661.8 


180.8 


1583.5 


320.2 


20.2 


1986/87 5/ 


714.8 


2.30 


1642.9 


193.6 


1614.9 


348.1 


21.6 



NOTE: "STOCKS AS PERCENT OF UTILIZATION" REPRESENT THE RATION OF MARKETING YEAR ENDING 
STOCKS TO TOTAL UTIZIZATION. 

1/ TRADE DATA AS EXPRESSED IN THIS TABLE EXLUDE INTRA-EC TRADE. wHEAT AND COARSE GRAINS 
ARE ON A JULY/JUNE BASIS THROUGH 1975/76. FROH 1976/77 ON, THE TRADE YEAR FOR 
COARSE GRAINS IS OCTOBER/SEPTEMBER. 

2/ FOR COUNTRIES FOR WHICH STOCKS DATA ARE NOT AVAILABLE (EXCLUDING THE USSR) UTILIZATION 
ESTIMATES REPRESENT "APPARENT" UTILIZATION, I.E. INCLUDE ANNUAL STOCK LEVEL ADJUSTMENTS. 

3/ STOCKS DATA ARE BASED ON AN AGGREGATE OF DIFFERING LOCAL MARKETING YEARS AND SHOULD NOT 
BE CONSTRUED AS REPRESENTING WORLD STOCK LEVELS AT A FIXED POINT IN TIME. STOCKS DATA 
ARE NOT AVAILABLE FOR ALL COUNTRIES AND EXCLUDE THOSE SUCH AS THE PEOPLE'S REPUBLIC OF 
CHINA AND PARTS OF EASTERN EUROPE. WORLD STOCK LEVELS HAVE BEEN ADJUSTED FOR ESTIMATED 
YEAR-TO-YEAR CHANGES IN USSR GRAIN STOCKS, BUT DO NOT PURPORT TO INCLUDE THE ABSOLUTE 
LEVEL OF USSR GRAIN STOCKS. 

4/ PRELIMINARY. 

5/ PROJECTION. AREA AND YIELD DOES NOT INCLUDE RICE FORECAST FOR U.S. 

SOURCES; PREPARED OR ESTIMATED ON THE BASIS OF OFFICIAL STATISTICS OF FOREIGN GOVENMENTS, 
OTHER FOREIGN SOURCE MATERIALS, REPORTS OF U.S. AGRICULTURAL ATTACHES AND FOREIGN SERVICE 
OFFICERS, RESULTS OF OFFICE RESEARCH AND RELATED INFORMATION. 

COMMODITY PROGRAMS, FAS, USDA GRAIN AND FEED DIVISION 



30 



EXPORT PRICES FOR yimkT MD CORN 
(BASIS FOB, U.S. DOLLARS PER METRIC TON) 









WHEAT 




CORN 






U.S. 


ARGENTINA 


CANADA 


AUSTRALIA 


U.S. 


ARGENTINA 




GULF 




VANCOUVER 1/ 


STD. WHITE 


GULF 






#2 H.W. 




#1 CiVRS 12.5 




43 Yellow 




1981 CY 


177 


189 


212 


175 


134 


137 


1982 CY 


162 


166 


187 


160 


110 


109 


1983 CY 


158 


138 


185 


161 


137 


133 


1984 CY 


153 


135 


186 


153 


138 


132 


1985 CY 


138 


108 


178 


140 


113 


102 


1985 














May 


137 


112 


180 


145 


118 


109 


Jane 


134 


107 


178 


141 


117 


111 


Tulv 


130 


107 


171 


134 


114 


112 


Aug 


124 


98 


163 


123 


103 


101 


Sep 


128 


93 


165 


131 


103 


88 


Oct 


130 


92 


173 


134 


100 


90 


Nov 


136 


98 


181 


139 


108 


95 


Dec 


139 


114 


184 


144 


111 


100 


1986 














Jaa 


133 


108 


182 


140 


109 


100 


Feb 


131 


102 


177 


133 


106 


92 


Mar 


136 


97 


183 


139 


101 


37 


Apr 


125 


96 


182 


137 


102 


86 


May 


120 


90 


175 


131 


107 


90 


June 3 


111 


86 


157 


118 


103 


89 


10 


110 


86 


152 


115 


108 


89 


17 


107 


84 


148 


116 


103 


92 


24 


104 


84 


148 


106 


92 


38 


July 1 


101 


83 


148 


106 


92 


88 


3 


101 


32 


139 


106 


83 


85 



1/ In Store Export Elevators 



31 



SELECTtD WORLD GRaIN PRICES, GIF ROTTERDAM V 
Wheat Marketing Years 1970/71 - 1985/86 
(In U.S. dollars per metric ton) 



Wheat Corn 

U.S. NO. 2 Dark Canadian U.S. No. J 
Northern Spring Western Red Yellow 
14% Spring 13 1/2% Corn 



19/0/ /I 


(July-June ) 


10 7 n 
/o. /U 


7/i It ') / 


by . 1 u 


1971/72 


(July-June) 


69.75 


72.45 


57.00 


1972/73 


(July-June ) 


100.15 


101. 9d 


77.10 


1973/74 


(July-June) 


202.95 


214.40 


132.90 


1974/75 


(July-June) 


204.25 


209,70 


144.80 


1975/76 


(July-June) 


186.86 


195.85 


128.80 


1976/77 


(June-May ) 


147.05 


149.55 


122.00 


1977/78 


(June-May ) 


131 .30 


140.85 


105.80 


1 Q7 Q /7 Q 

1 y /o/ / y 


I J une-nay ) 


1 00 . /U 


1 kC on 
1 00 . 


lit-; An 


1979/80 


(June-May) 


199.65 


N/A 


138.20 


1980/81 


(June-May) 


218.45 


N/A 


164.15 


1981/82 


(June-May ) 


193.90 


215.30 


135.40 


1982/83 


(June-May) 


178.45 


198.85 


125.25 


1983/84 


(J une-May ) 


186. 4U 


201 .50 


157.90 


1984/85 


(June-May ) 


175.69 


180.34 


139.43 


1985/86 


(J une-May) 


166.68 


173.21 


117.36 


1985/86 










Dec 




177.67 


N.Q. 


lly.25 


Jan 




176.25 


N.Q. 


119.25 


Feb 




174.25 


N.Q. 


116.50 


Mar 




167.50 


N.O. 


111.65 


Apr 




171.00 


N.Q. 


113.00 


May 




162.75 


N.Q. 


116.75 


1986/87 










June 3 




154.00 


N.Q. 


lly.OO 


10 




146.00 


N.Q. 


118.00 


17 




130.00 


N.Q. 


117.00 


24 




131.50 


N.Q. 


117.00 


July 1 




133.00 


N.Q. 


106.00 


8 




128.50 


N.Q. 


98.00 



T7 Asking prices for Rotterdam 30-day delivery, as shown by Hamburg 
Mercantile Exchange. 

Z/ Prior to September 1971 prices for No. 2 Manitoba Northern. 
3/ First two weeks only. 



32 




33 



o 

I — I 

CO f— 
UJ LU 

o 2: 



CL LlJ 
CL 



CO 

O 

CL <: 

X 
LlI 



o 
o - 

O CO 
Q 3 



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<: 



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CD 


CD 








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o 
o 



o 
en 



GO 



34 



FOOTNOTES TO WORLD GRAIN SUMMARY AND TRADE TABLES 



1) Includes wheat flour and products. 

2) Argentina, Australia, Canada, South Africa, and Thailand. 

3) Adjusted for transshipment through Canadian ports: excludes products other 
than flour. 

4) Wheat, rye, corn, barley, oats, sorghum, millet, and mixed grains. 

5) Production data includes all harvests occurring within the July-June year 
indicated, expect that small grain crops from the early harvesting Northern 
Hemisphere areas are "moved foreward" i.e., the May 1984 harvests in areas 
such as India, North Africa, and southern United States are actually 
included in "1984/85" accounting period which begins July 1, 1984, for 
wheat or October 1, 1984, for coarse grains. 

6) "Bunker weight" basis; not discounted for excess moisture and foreign 
material . 

7) Utilization data are based on an aggregate of differing local marketing 
years. For countries for which stocks data are not available (excluding 
the USSR) utilization estimates represent "apparent" utilization; i.e., 
they are inclusive of annual stock level adjustments. 

8) Stocks data are based on aggregate of differing local marketing years and 
should not be construed as representing world stock level at a fixed point 
in time. Stocks data are not available for all countries and exclude those 
such as the People's Republic of China, and parts of Eastern Europe. The 
world stocks level has been adjusted for estimated year-to-year changes in 
the USSR grain stocks, but do not purport to include the entire absolute 
level of USSR stocks. 

9) Inclusive of Soviet stock changes; see footnote 8. 



This circular was prepared by the Grain and Feed Division, Commodity Programs, 
FAS/USDA, Washington, D.C. 20250. Further information may be obtained by 
writing the Division or telephoning (202) 447-2009. 

Note: The previous report in the series was World Grain Situation/Outlook 
Foreign Agriculture Circular FG-6086 June 1986. For further details on the 
world grain production and USSR outlook see "World Crop Production" Foreign 
Agriculture Circular WCP-7-86, July 11, 1986, and "USSR Grain Situation and 
Outlook" Foreign Agriculture Circular SG-7-86, July 1986. 



35 



*U.S.G0VERN1»1LNT PRINTING OFF ICE : 1986- 49Q-9 16 :40447/rAS 



35 



UNITED STATES DEPARTMENT OF AGRICULTURE 
WASHINGTON, D.C. 20250 



OFFICIAL BUSINESS 
PENALTY FOR PRIVATE USE, $300 



FIRST-CLASS MAIL 
POSTAGE & FEES PAID 
USDA-FAS 
WASHINGTON, D.C. 
PERMIT No. G-262 



If your address should be changed PRINT 

OR TYPE the new address. Including ZIP CODE and 
return the whole sheet and/or envelope to: 

FOREIGN AGRICULTURAL SERVICE, Room 4644 So. 
U.S. Department of Agriculture 
Washington, D.C. 20250 



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