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i 




AO 





United States 
Department of 
'^^ Agriculture 

Forest 
Service 

Program Aid 
Number 1307 




Alternative Goals 



1 985 Resources Planning Act Program 



I 



Alternative Goals 

1 985 Resources Planning Act Prog 




United States 
Department of 
Agriculture 

Forest Service 

December 1981 



To Our Public: 



We invite you to assist the Forest Service, U.S. 
Department of Agriculture, in a planning process that 
is important to you individually and to the Nation. 
In brief, we would like you to help select and for- 
mulate national goals that will guide the management 
of our natural resources over the next 50 years. 

In one way or another, these natural resources influ- 
ence all of us. They are the foundation of our 
national wealth: the timber that builds our homes; 
the range that provides red meat for our tables; the 
water that slakes our thirst, drives the wheels of 
industry, and provides irrigation; the fish and wild- 
life that we hunt or observe; the outdoor recreation 
that helps us unwind; and the vital mineral and energy 
resources of oil, gas, and coal needed by industry and 
consumer al ike. 

The Forest Service is now developing the 1985 RPA Pro- 
gram, the third one required by the Forest and Range- 
land Renewable Resources Planning Act of 1974. This 
document is part of the process to determine the scope 
of the 1985 RPA update. In the following pages we 
present alternative goals for each of 10 opportunity 
areas. We also describe what the relative implica- 
tions of each alternative goal would be in terms of 
investments, outputs, community effects, employment 
and income, and other key indicators. 

We intend to develop and select a single national goal 
for each of the 10 opportunity areas. We invite your 
participation, just as we did during formulation of 
the first and second RPA Programs. Please review the 
draft alternatives and detennine your preferences or 
suggest others. In addition, you may wish to comment 



1i 



on other points related to these goals, such as 
the anticipated social, economic, and environmental 
effects; opportunities noted to meet resource needs 
and the implications we have listed for each alter- 
native goal. Your response will be analyzed, eval- 
uated, and used to help us select national goals to 
guide the 1985 RPA update. 



With your assistance, we wish to develop the best 
1985 RPA Program possible. 




R. MAX PETERSON 
Chief 



CONTENTS 



INTRODUCTION 1 

Opportunity Areas 1 

Goals 2 

Planning--In Perspective and Practice 2 

RPA 3 

Assessment 3 

Program 3 

Issues 4 

Future Involvement 4 

Role of the Forest Service 4 

National Forest System 5 

State and Private Forestry 5 

Research 5 

Human and Community Development 6 

TIMBER SUPPLY 7 

Needs and Opportunities 7 

The Demand and Supply Outlook 7 

Social, Economic, and 
Environmental Effects 7 

Resource Base 8 

Opportunities 8 

Alternative Goals and Implications 12 

Alternative Goal 1 12 

Basis for Alternative Goal 1 12 

Implications of Alternative Goal 1 12 

Alternative Goal 2 15 

Basis for Alternative Goal 2 15 

Implications of Alternative Goal 2 16 

Alternative Goal 3 16 

Basis for Alternative Goal 3 16 

Implications of Alternative Goal 3 16 



Comparison of Timber Supply Alternative 
Goals and Implications (table) 



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RANGE PRODUCTIVITY 20 

Needs and Opportunities 20 

The Demand and Supply Outlook 20 

Social, Economic, and 

Environmental Effects 20 

Resource Base 20 

Opportunities 21 

Alternative Goals and Implications 22 

Alternative Goal 1 22 

Basis for Alternative Goal 1 22 

Implications of Alternative Goal 1 22 

Alternative Goal 2 23 

Basis for Alternative Goal 2 23 

Implications of Alternative Goal 2 24 

Alternative Goal 3 24 

Basis for Alternative Goal 3 24 

Implications of Alternative Goal 3 25 

Comparison of Range Productivity Alternative 

Goals and Implications (table) 26 

RECREATION USE 27 

Needs and Opportunities 27 

The Demand and Supply Outlook 27 

Social, Economic, and 

Environmental Effects 28 

Resource Base 29 

Opportunities 29 

Alternative Goals and Implications 30 

Alternative Goal 1 30 

Basis for Alternative Goal 1 30 



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Implications of Alternative Goal 1 31 

Alternative Goal 2 32 

Basis for Alternative Goal 2 32 

Implications of Alternative Goal 2 32 

Alternative Goal 3 33 

Basis for Alternative Goal 3 33 

Implications of Alternative Goal 3 33 

Alternative Goal 4 34 

Basis for Alternative Goal 4 34 

Implications of Alternative Goal 4 34 

Comparison of Recreation Use Alternative 

Goals and Implications (table) 35 

WILDERNESS USE 37 

Needs and Opportunities 37 

The Demand and Supply Outlook 37 

Social, Economic, and 
Environmental Effects 37 

Resource Base 38 

Opportunities 38 

Alternative Goals and Implications 39 

Alternative Goal 1 39 

Basis for Alternative Goal 1 40 

Implications of Alternative Goal 1 40 

Alternative Goal 2 41 

Basis for Alternative Goal 2 41 

Implications of Alternative Goal 2 41 

Alternative Goal 3 42 

Basis for Alternative Goal 3 42 

Implications of Alternative Goal 3 42 

Comparison of Wilderness Use Alternative 

Goals and Implications (table) 44 

WILDLIFE AND FISH HABITAT 45 



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Needs and Opportunities 45 

The Demand and Supply Outlook 45 

Social, Economic, and 

Environmental Effects 45 

Resource Base 46 

Opportunities 46 

Alternative Goals and Implications 47 

Alternative Goal 1 47 

Basis for Alternative Goal 1 47 

Implications of Alternative Goal 1 47 

Alternative Goal 2 49 

Basis for Alternative Goal 2 49 

Implications of Alternative Goal 2 50 

Alternative Goal 3 51 

Basis for Alternative Goal 3 51 

Implications of Alternative Goal 3 51 

Comparison of Wildlife and Fish Habitat 
Alternative Goals and Implications 
(table) 54 

MINERALS AND ENERGY DEVELOPMENT 56 

Needs and Opportunities 56 

The Demand and Supply Outlook 56 

Social, Economic, and 

Environmental Effects 56 

Resource Base 57 

Opportunities 58 

Alternative Goals and Implications 58 

Alternative Goal 1 53 

Basis for Alternative Goal 1 58 

Implications of Alternative Goal 1 59 

Alternative Goal 2 62 

Basis for Alternative Goal 2 62 

Implications of Alternative Goal 2 62 



Alternative Goal 3 62 

Basis for Alternative Goal 3 63 

Implications of Alternative Goal 3 63 

Comparison of Minerals and Energy Development 
Alternative Goals and Implications 
(table) 64 

WATER YIELD AND QUALITY 66 

Needs and Opportunities 66 

The Demand and Supply Outlook 66 

Social, Economic, and 

Environmental Effects 67 

Resource Base 67 

Opportunities 68 

Alternative Goals and Implications 70 

Alternative Goal 1 70 

Basis for Alternative Goal 1 70 

Implications of Alternative Goal 1 70 

Alternative Goal 2 71 

Basis for Alternative Goal 2 71 

Implications of Alternative Goal 2 71 

Alternative Goal 3 73 

Basis for Alternative Goal 3 73 

Implications of Alternative Goal 3 73 

Comparison of Water Yield and Quality 
Alternative Goals and Implications 
(table) 75 

RURAL COMMUNITIES AND HUMAN RESOURCES 77 

Needs and Opportunities 77 

The Demand and Supply Outlook 77 

Social, Economic, and 
Environmental Effects 77 



Resource Base 77 

Opportunities 77 

Alternative Goals and Implications 78 

Alternative Goal 1 78 

Basis for Alternative Goal 1 79 

Implications of Alternative Goal 1 ...79 

Alternative Goal 2 80 

Basis for Alternative Goal 2 80 

Implications of Alternative Goal 2 ...80 

Alternative Goal 3 81 

Basis for Alternative Goal 3 81 

Implications of Alternative Goal 3 ...81 
Comparison of Rural Communities and Human 

Resources Alternative Goals and 

Implications (table) 83 

INTERNATIONAL FORESTRY 84 

Needs and Opportunities 84 

The Demand and Supply Outlook 84 

Social, Economic, and 

Environmental Effects 84 

Resource Base 85 

Opportunities 85 

Alternative Goals and Implications 87 

Al ternative Goal 1 87 

Basis for Alternative Goal 1 87 

Implications of Alternative Goal 1 ...87 

Alternative Goal 2 88 

Basis for Alternative Goal 2 88 

Implications of Alternative Goal 2 ...88 
Comparison of International Forestry 
Alternative Goals and Implications 
(table) 89 



PROTECTION AND SUPPORT 90 

Needs and Opportunities 90 

The Demand and Supply Outlook 90 

Social, Economic, and 

Environmental Effects 92 

Resource Base 93 

Opportunities 93 

Goal and Implication 94 

Protection and Support Goal 95 

Basis for Protection and 

Support Goal 95 

Implications of Protection and 

Support Goal 95 



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INTRODUCTION 



This document is part of the process used to determine 
the scope of the 1985 Resources Planning Act Program 
update. It presents needs, opportunities, and alter- 
native national goals for the following 10 opportunity 
areas to be addressed in the Environmental Impact 
Statement for the 1985 update of the Resources Plan- 
ning Act Program (RPA) for the Forest Service: Timber 
Supply; Range Productivity; Recreation Use; Wilderness 
Use; Wildlife and Fish Habitat; Minerals and Energy 
Development; Water Yield and Quality; Rural Communi- 
ties and Human Resources; International Forestry; and 
Protection and Support. 

The purpose of this document is to obtain public views 
on preferred goals in these 10 opportunity areas. In 
addition, you may wish to comment on other concerns 
related to these goals, such as the anticipated 
social, economic, and environmental effects; opportu- 
nities to meet resource needs; and the implications we 
have listed for each alternative goal. Your responses 
will be used by the Administration in deciding upon a 
single set of national goals to guide development of 
the 1985 RPA Program update. 

To help in your review of the alternative goals, a 
background statement is presented for each of the 10 
opportunity areas. The background statement provides 
a brief overview of the demand-supply outlook; poten- 
tial social, environmental, and economic effects asso- 
ciated with that outlook; a general description of the 
resource base; and an outline of opportunities for 
improving the long-term demand-supply outlook. The 
background statement is followed by a set of alterna- 
tive goals. These are followed by information on the 
basis for selection, and implications of achieving 



each goal with respect to investments, economic 
efficiency, outputs, prices, renewable resources, 
nonrenewable resources, community, employment and 
income, and technology. 

Please identify your goal preferences or suggest 
alternatives to those presented here. It would 
be helpful to have the reasons for your preference 
and any other views with respect to the background 
information. 

Your responses to these alternative goals will be 
analyzed and evaluated, and the results used to help 
select national goals for the 1985 RPA update. Send 
your written response by March 15, 1982, to: 

Thomas E. Hamilton 
Director, RPA 
USDA Forest Service 
P.O. Box 2417 
Washington, D.C. 20013 

Opportunity Areas 

The 1979 Assessment identifies many opportunities to 
increase supplies of renewable resources to meet 
projected demands. In response to the 1979 Assess- 
ment the 1985 RPA Program update will be organized 
around 10 opportunity areas: Timber Supply; Range 
Productivity; Recreation Use; Wilderness Use; Wild- 
life and Fish Habitat; Minerals and Energy Develop- 
ment; Water Yield and Quality; Rural Communities and 
Human Resources; International Forestry; and Protec- 
tion and Support. 



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These 10 opportunity areas are described in this docu- 
ment. A "needs and opportunities" statement, based on 
the Assessment, is presented to describe the condition 
or situation for each opportunity area and to provide 
the basis for the draft alternative goals. 

Goals 

Goals are statements of the place or situation an org- 
anization is striving to achieve. They are expressed 
as a desired future that operating programs are 
designed to move toward. They describe a desired 
condition to be achieved in the future. 

We have drafted alternative goals for each opportu- 
nity area. These alternative goals describe different 
possible directions the Forest Service can take to 
provide its share of the national resources needed by 
the Nation. 

The implication statements that follow the individual 
alternative goals provide a picture of the probable 
effects of choosing one goal rather than another. 

After your review and comment on these alternatives, 
one national goal for each opportunity area will be 
selected as the basis for building the 1985 RPA Pro- 
gram update. In selecting these national goals, con- 
sideration will be given to a number of factors, 
including public response to this document, environ- 
mental effects, the relationship between short-term 
use of the environment and enhancement of long-term 
productivity, irreversible and irretrievable commit- 
ments of resources, demand-supply projections, and 
specific policies. In addition, the implication 



2 



statements describe several specific items to be 
considered such as investments, outputs, prices, 
consumer costs, and employment and income. Finally, 
the environmental, economic and budget messages of 
the President provide administrative guidance. 

Planning — In Perspective and Practice 

The Resources Planning Act, as amended, and its 
implementing regulations require the Forest Service 
to have a three-level integrated planning process: 

National : RPA Assessment and Program 
Regional : Regional Plan 

Local : Forest Land and Resource Management Plans 

In addition. State forest resource plans developed 
by the States for State and private land, as well as 
research plans, are an integral part of the 
procedure. 

The planning process is a continuous cycle and each 
plan has a special relationship to other plans. The 
RPA Program is updated every 5 years to reflect 
improved or new data, changing national priorities, 
and revisions required because of the results of 
other plans. National Forest Plans are updated at 
least every 10 years; the RPA Assessment is updated 
every 10 years. 

When the national RPA Program is finalized, the 
Chief of the Forest Service distributes it to each 
Forest Service Region, Station, and Area. This in- 
formation is reflected in Regional Plans, Research 
Plans, and in State and Private Forestry planning. 



Regional Plans based on the 1980 RPA Program are being 
prepared now. The Regional Plan: (1) distributes the 
Regional RPA Program among the National Forests and 
describes State and private and research programs; 

(2) provides direction for National Forest plans; and 

(3) develops the standards and guidelines for the man- 
agement of the National Forests. It should be noted 
that National Forest plans are not limited by the RPA 
Program. They include one or more alternatives that 
meet both the RPA output targets and the long-term 
goals established by Congress in the revised Statement 
of Policy. The selected alternative for a particular 
National Forest may vary from the assigned RPA targets 
but the National Forest plans within a Region should, 
in aggregate, provide short- and long-term capabili- 
ties to meet or exceed the Region's assigned RPA 
targets. 

The Forest and State plans now being developed in re- 
sponse to the 1980 RPA Program will play an important 
role in shaping the next RPA Assessment (1989) and 
Program (1985). By collecting and integrating basic 
data on biological potential, examining management 
alternatives, and identifying research problems, local 
plans become the basic building blocks for regional 
and national planning. The emphasis at all planning 
levels is on the future and how forest and range land 
resources can best be used and managed to meet 
people's needs. 

RPA 

The Forest and Rangeland Renewable Resources Planning 
Act of 1974, as amended, directs the Secretary of Ag- 
riculture to periodically assess the status of the 



Nation's forest and range land resources and recom- 
mend a Forest Service program for management and 
use of these resources. It requires the development 
of an Assessment every 10 years and a Recommended 
Program every 5 years. The 1985 RPA update will be 
the third Program prepared under this legislation. 

Assessment 

The RPA Assessment describes the Nation's renewable 
resource situation at a specific time and projects 
future supplies of and demands for these resources. 
The most recent Assessment was completed in 1979. 
It shows that demands for resources produced from 
forest and range lands will increase more rapidly 
than supplies in the years ahead. However, the 
Assessment also identifies major opportunities to 
increase our future supply of almost all renewable 
resources. A supplement to the 1979 Assessment will 
be prepared in 1984 to account for any significant 
changes that have occurred since 1979. For exam- 
ple, it will incorporate results of the 1980 Census, 
revised economic projections for gross national 
product and disposable personal income, and updated 
resource supply demand information where appro- 
priate. 

Program 

The RPA Program recommends courses of action, based 
on the findings of the Assessment, for the manage- 
ment and administration of the National Forest Sys- 
tem, for Forest Service Research, and for assist- 
ance to State forestry organizations and other 
cooperators through State and Private Forestry 



programs. The 1985 Program will chart a course for 
management through 2035 based on the 1979 Assess- 
ment, as updated in the 1984 Assessment Supplement. 

I ssues 

The 1985 RPA Program will respond to long-term 
national goals. In addition, there has been a con- 
tinuing effort to identify issues at all levels in 
the Forest Service planning process. Issues to be 
dealt with in the 1985 RPA update stem from a review 
of the 1979 Assessment; public comments received on 
the 1980 RPA Program and 1979 Assessment; concerns 
raised during National Forest and Regional planning 
efforts; various published reports (such as the Glo- 
bal 2000 Report and Society of American Forester's 
Forest Policy Guidebook); and numerous proceedings, 
workshops, and symposia. 

Because of the extensive public review of issues for 
the 1980 RPA Program and because public review is an 
integral part of the Regional and National Forest 
planning currently underway, a separate review of 
issues is not planned at this time. Instead, issues 
are presented as needs and opportunities in each op- 
portunity area. National issues will be identified 
in the draft 1985 Program and draft Environmental 
Impact Statement (EIS). These will be available for 
your review and comment in late 1983. 

Future Involvement 

When the national goals have been selected, various 
alternative programs to achieve them will be devel- 
oped. These will be analyzed in a draft EIS and 



4 



draft Program on which you will be invited to com- 
ment in the Fall of 1983. When public review of the 
draft EIS and draft Program is completed, a final 
EIS and final recommended Program will be prepared. 
The Recommended 1985 RPA Program, accompanied by a 
Statement of Policy from the President, will be 
transmitted to Congress in December 1984. 

Role of the Forest Service 

Meeting national goals will involve many individuals 
and organizations, both public and private. Conser- 
vation groups and industry influence the use and 
productivity of our Nation's forest and related 
resources. The private sector is the major producer 
of forest and range resources and serves a key role 
in meeting the resource needs of the Nation. 

Federal and State Governments also have important 
roles. The Forest Service provides national leader- 
ship in forestry and natural resource conservation 
and in the improvement of our natural environment. 
Other Federal agencies also manage forest and range 
lands, assist State and private forest and range 
landowners, and conduct research. Moreover, Federal 
environmental protection programs influence all 
resource management and use. State agencies con- 
tinue to fulfill their important roles in land man- 
agement and environmental protection. Forest Serv- 
ice cooperation with these organizations, both 
public and private, as well as with the people them- 
selves, is essential for developing and carrying out 
forest and range conservation programs. 



Forest Service activities are divided into three 
major program areas: National Forest System, State 
and Private Forestry, and Research. In addition, 
human and community development activities have 
become important parts of all three of these program 
areas. 

National Forest System 

Managing the country's National Forests and Grass- 
lands is the most visible of Forest Service activi- 
ties. Everyone who has traveled extensively through 
the Nation's rural areas, especially in the West, 
has encountered evidence of the Forest Service at 
work. National Forests and Grasslands cover about 
190 million acres, or 13 percent of the total forest 
and range land in the country. The Forest Service 
manages this land on a multiple-use basis, ensuring 
that it yields commercial products such as wood, 
forage, water, and minerals, as well as amenities 
such as recreation, fish, wildlife, and wilderness. 
The Forest Service manages the more than 4 million 
acres of National Grasslands as a demonstration of 
sound, practical land use to encourage similar con- 
servation practices on private lands. 

State and Private Forestry 

Federal forestry programs extend financial and tech- 
nical assistance to the States and, through them, to 
private landowners and others. Private ownerships, 
plus relatively small areas in State, county, and 
municipal ownerships, amount to about 52 percent of 
the Nation's total forest and range land. Through 
these cooperative efforts. State forestry programs 



are supported and strengthened. The programs 
include rural forestry assistance on non-Federal 
forest lands, forestry incentives on nonindustrial 
private forest lands, forest insect and disease con- 
trol on all lands, forestry assistance for urban and 
smaller communities, rural fire prevention and con- 
trol on non-Federal forest lands and other rural 
lands, management assistance to State Foresters and 
other State officials, and provision of new technol- 
ogy to all landowners. 

Research 

Supporting forest and range activities on all land- 
ownerships involves a comprehensive research program 
that seeks to solve important problems related to 
the protection, management, and wise use of forest 
and range land through the development of new know- 
ledge and technology. Distributed throughout the 
major forest areas of the country, eight Forest Ex- 
periment Stations carry on research in varied fields 
such as silviculture, soils, insects, diseases, hy- 
drology, economics, engineering, wildlife, recrea- 
tion, and urban forestry. Research programs are 
planned jointly with the Nation's 60 forestry 
schools through the National /Regional Agriculture 
Research Planning system. The Forest Products Lab- 
oratory also devises new and better ways to use 
wood. 

The ultimate goal of this effort is to increase the 
productivity of public and private forest and range 
land while maintaining or enhancing environmental 
qual ity. 



Human and Community Development 



The primary mission of human and community develop- 
ment activities is to help people and communities 
help themselves within the context of forest and 
range land management. Various programs provide 
employment, job training, and environmental educa- 
tion for youth and senior citizens, many of whom 
are economically disadvantaged. Others include 
fire protection, open and green space management, 
rural development activities that enhance the 
livability of small towns and rural areas, and 
technology to improve management of community 
forests. Needed work is performed in resource 
management, environmental protection, and 
facilities improvement. 



6 



TIMBER SUPPLY 



Needs and Opportunities 
The Demand and Supply Outlook 

Timber increased from a little over 11 billion cubic 
feet in the late 1950's to nearly 14 billion in the 
late 1970's. In response to the surge in housing 
needs resulting from the baby boom of the 1950 's and 
1960's and recent low levels of construction, the 
demand for timber is likely to rise rapidly in the 
1980 's. Longer run projections, based on expected 
increases in population, economic activity, and a 
continuation of the price trends in the 1950--76 
period, show that demands will continue to grow and, 
by 2030, be more than double the levels of the late 
1970 's. The supplies of timber that will be avail- 
able to meet these demands, assuming a continuation 
of recent trends in investments in forest manage- 
ment, show slower increases. This will result in 
rapid increases in the relative prices (net of gen- 
eral inflation or deflation) of timber and timber 
products as the price system brings about an equili- 
brium between demands and supplies. 

Social, Economic, and Environmental Effects 

Consumers will suffer the greatest losses from rising 
relative prices of timber products. Home buyers will 
be the most affected. By 2030, the projected increase 
in softwood lumber prices will result in higher hous- 
ing costs and a 7-percent reduction in the number of 
dwelling units built. In total, it is estimated that 
in 2030 consumers will pay some $7 billion more for 

wood products and competing materials because of in- 
sufficient softwood timber to meet demands in order to 



maintain prices of lumber and plywood at the 1977 
1 evel . 

Timber industry employment in 2030 will be some 
90,000 person-years below the levels that would have 
existed if softwood timber supplies were increased 
to meet demands at 1977 price levels. Effects on 
total employment in most timber-producing regions 
will be much larger because of impacts on trade, 
service, and other industries. Such impacts are 
especially critical because of the high rates of 
unemployment frequently found in communities in for- 
ested rural areas. Part of the loss of employment 
in timber industries and timber-producing regions 
will be offset by increased employment in other 
industries and regions. 

There are also important implications for the pri- 
mary timber-processing industries, particularly for 
the lumber industry. With relative price increases 
of the sizes expected, the demand for lumber by 2030 
will be some 11 billion board feet below that which 
would have existed without the increase in prices. 
This is a measure of market loss for the lumber 
i ndu St ry. 

Rising prices in the United States will also con- 
strain the potential for export. Exports of most 
timber products--l umber, plywood, pulp, and paper — 
are largely determined by the capability of produc- 
ers to compete on a price basis with producers in 
other countries. 



7 



In addition, continued reliance on timber substi- 
tutes will increase impacts on nonrenewable 
resources and related environmental issues. 

Resource Base 

There is a large commercial timberland base--482 mil- 
lion acres in 1976 — that is capable of producing more 
than 20 cubic feet of wood per acre per year and that 
is not reserved for other uses. These timberlands 
contain some 792 billion cubic feet of roundwood. 
About 64 percent of the total volume is in sawtimber 
trees (trees large enough to contain at least one log 
suitable for the manufacture of lumber). Another 26 
percent is in poletimber trees (trees from 5 inches 
in diameter at breast height to sawtimber size and 
now, or prospectively, suitable for industrial timber 
products). The remaining 10 percent of all roundwood 
volume is in rough, rotten, and salvable dead trees. 
Some of this latter material may be suitable for lum- 
ber and veneer, but most of it is usable only for 
pulp, fuel, and other products where log quality re- 
quirements are flexible. 

About a quarter of the wood fiber in a tree is in the 
tops, limbs, bark, and the part of the tree normally 
left as a stump. This fiber is also usable for pulp 
and fuel. In addition, there are substantial volumes 
of logging residues and urban wood wastes that can be 
used for similar purposes. 

Softwoods predominate in the Nation's timber inven- 
tory. There is a total of 456 billion cubic feet of 
softwood growing stock including 1 ,985 billion board 



8 



feet of sawtimber. The largest portion of the soft- 
wood timber inventory, some 46 percent of all soft- 
wood growing stock and 51 percent of the sawtimber, 
is on the National Forests. Most of this is in the 
western United States. Another 27 percent of the 
softwood growing stock (22 percent of the sawtimber 
inventory) is in noni ndustrial private ownerships, 
largely those in the East. Sixteen percent is in 
forest industry ownership. Over half of this is in 
the West. 

Hardwood growing stock inventories total 255 billion 
cubic feet. About 70 percent of these inventories 
are on nonindustrial private ownerships and 13 per- 
cent on forestry industry ownerships. The bulk of 
the hardwood timber in these ownerships is in the 
East, about equally divided between the North and 
South. The National Forests contain only 8 percent 
of the hardwood growing stock inventory. 

Opportunities 

With increased private and public investments in 
management, research, and assistance programs to 
improve utilization and increase net annual growth, 
the Nation's timber resources can meet foreseeable 
domestic and export demands. 

The opportunities for improved utilization include: 

-- Utilizing unused wood materials, including 
hardwoods that are potential substitutes for 
softwoods. 

— Improving efficiency in manufacturing and con- 
struction. 



-- Extending the useful life of wood products by 
preservative treatments, improving designs of new 
structures, and renovating and maintaining exist- 
ing structures rather than replacing them. 

~ Increasing educational and technical assistance 
to timber processors and users. 

— Developing markets for unused wood materials 
including hardwoods. 

Opportunities to increase net annual timber growth 
include: 



— Regenerating nonstocked and poorly stocked areas, 
harvesting and regenerating mature stands, and 
converting existing stands to more desired species. 

— Applying intensive timber management practices 
such as spacing control, fertilization, planting 
genetically improved trees, and vegetation con- 
trol . 

— Using management, control, and harvesting prac- 
tices that reduce losses caused by natural mor- 
taility (suppression), undesirable vegetation, 
wildfires, insects, diseases, and poor logging 
practices. 

— Accelerating harvests on National Forests with 
inventories of old-growth timber and surplus mar- 
ketable growing stock. 

— Increasing education and technical assistance 
to private landowners through cooperative 



efforts with State Foresters, extension for- 
esters, industrial foresters, and consulting 
foresters. 

-- Providing appropriate cost-sharing, tax, loan, 
and insurance incentives to increase timber 
production on private lands. 

Beyond these opportunities, research to develop more 
productive and more cost-effective ways of managing 
forests and improving utilization, together with 
expanded efforts in technology transfer, can also 
help expand future timber supplies. 

Intensified management programs are unlikely to have 
impact on timber supplies and prices much before 
2000. However, there are opportunities to increase 
timber supplies and respond to rising demands in the 
1980 's. These opportunities include: 

— Accelerating harvests on National Forests in 
Washington, Oregon, northern California, north- 
ern Idaho, and western Montana that have large 
inventories of old-growth softwood timber. 
Although volumes cannot be determined until 
management plans are developed and approved 
for each individual National Forestry, it is 



J_/ Under the provisions of the National For- 
est Management Act, accelerated harvests that depart 
from nondeclining evenflow on the National Forests 
can only be determined and implemented after 
approved management plans are developed for each 
individual National Forest. 



9 



estimated that, with adequate funding for sales 
preparation, road construction, and the protec- 
tion of the environment, harvests could be raised 
by perhaps 0.4 to 0.8 billion cubic feet (2 to 4 
billion board feet) a year. Harvest levels on 
other National Forests can be increased without 
accelerated harvesting if markets are developed 
and the necessary funding is available. 

-- Increasing salvage of rough, rotten, and salvable 
dead trees and logging residues on National For- 
ests. 

-- Improving utilization of the timber harvested. 
With expanded programs of research, technology 
transfer, and technical assistance to processors 
and users, softwood timber utilization could be 
raised by 5 to 10 percent in the 1980 's. 

— Enlarging harvests on softwood forests in pri- 
vate ownership in the South in the 1980 's and 
1990 's. Large investments in regeneration of har- 
vested softwood stands and related management pro- 
grams would be necessary to sustain the higher 
levels of output much beyond 2000. 

For the long term, there are opportunities to increase 
tintier growth greatly and improve utilization. For 
example, by using the opportunities that would yield 4 
percent or more on the investment (measured in constant 
dollars and at equilibrium prices), net annual timber 
growth could be increased by 12.9 billion cubic feet, 
a volume roughly equal to the present total timber 
harvest. Most of the economic opportunities occur on 
the 58 percent of the commercial timberland in farm 



10 



and other private ownerships, but the industrial 
and public forest lands also have significant 
potential . 

Various studies have shown that farmers and other 
private owners have diverse objectives, widely 
different characteristics and attitudes, a limited 
knowledge of existing management opportunities, and 
varying willingness and capacity to make investments 
that will increase and extend supplies of timber 
products. It is also likely that direct benefits, 
such as income from timber sales, may not accrue to 
many current owners because of short tenures of life 
expectancy. 

In general sense, these obstacles may limit the 
owner's attempts to make improvements in utiliza- 
tion. 

Except for some large industrial owners, there is 
little incentive and capital to carry on forest 
research in the private sector. Thus, adequate 
research is dependent upon public support. 

The problems associated with achieving more inten- 
sive management on farm and other private lands 
and obtaining adequate research support have long 
been recognized as major impediments to increasing 
timber supplies. But, what has not been adequate- 
ly recognized is that many of the investments made 
to increase timber supplies accrue benefits to 
society in the form of lower prices for timber pro- 
ducts. Lower prices act to reduce the cost to con- 
sumers of goods such as houses and furniture, the 
environmental pollution associated with use of 



that, with adequate funding for sales prepara- 
tion, road construction, and the protection of 
the environment, harvests could be raised by 
perhaps 0.4 to 0.8 billion cubic feet (2 to 4 
billion board feet) a year. Harvest levels on 
other National Forests can be increased without 
accelerated harvesting if markets are developed 
and the necessary funding is available. 

— Increasing salvage of rough, rotten, and sal- 
vable dead trees and logging residues on 
National Forests. 

-- Improving utilization of the timber harvested. 
With expanded programs of research, technology 
transfer, and technical assistance to processors 
and users, softwood timber utilization could be 
raised by 5 to 10 percent in the 1980 's. 

— Enlarging harvests on softwood forests in pri- 
vate ownership in the South in the 1980 's and 
1990's. Large investments in regeneration of 
harvested softwood stands and related manage- 
ment programs would be necessary to sustain the 
higher levels of output much beyond 2000. 

For the long term, there are opportunities to 
increase timber growth greatly and improve utiliza- 
tion. For example, by using the opportunities that 
would yield 4 percent or more on the investment (mea- 
sured in constant dollars and at equilibrium prices), 
net annual timber growth could be increased by 12.9 
billion cubic feet, a volume roughly equal to the 
present total timber harvest. Most of the economic 
opportunities occur on the 58 percent of the 



commercial timberland in farmer and other private 
ownerships, but the industrial and public forest 
lands also have significant potential. 

Various studies have shown that farmers and other 
private owners have diverse objectives, widely 
different characteristics and attitudes, a limited 
knowledge of existing management opportunities, and 
varying willingness and capacity to make investments 
that will increase and extend supplies of timber 
products. It is also likely that direct benefits, 
such as income from timber sales, may not accrue to 
many current owners because of short tenures of life 
expectancy. 

In a general sense, these obstacles may limit the 
owner's attempts to make improvements in utiliza- 
tion. 

Except for some large industrial owners, there is 
little incentive and capital to carry on forest 
research in the private sector. Thus, adequate 
research is dependent upon public support. 

The problems associated with achieving more inten- 
sive management on farmer and other private lands 
and obtaining adequate research support have long 
been recognized as major impediments to increasing 
timber supplies. But, what has not been ade- 
quately recognized is that many of the investments 
made to increase timber supplies accrue benefits to 
society in the form of lower prices for timber prod- 
ucts. Lower prices act to reduce the cost to con- 
sumers of goods such as houses and furniture, the 
environmental pollution associated with use of 



11 



substitute materials such as steel and plastics, and 
the rate of use of nonrenewable resources. Lower 
prices will also increase timber product exports and 
contribute to the wood needs of people around the 
world. On the other hand, lower prices will reduce 
the incentive for some private owners to invest in 
management programs. 

Timber comprises about a quarter of the value of all 
the industrial raw materials consumed in the economy. 
Millions of workers are employed in processing wood 
products, many in rural areas where timber is the 
only raw material available to support the local eco- 
nomy. Increased timber supplies and improvements in 
utilization will contribute in various ways to the 
quality of life of all members of society. 

Alternative Goals and Implications 

Alternative Goal 1 

MANAGE AND USE THE NATION'S TIMBER RESOURCES TO ACHIEVE 
A NET EXPORT VOLUME OF TIMBER PRODUCTS AND REDUCE CON- 
SUMER COSTS AS ECONOMICALLY AS POSSIBLE WHILE PROTECT- 
ING THE ENVIRONMENT AND PROVIDING OPPORTUNITIES TO USE 
TIMBERLANDS FOR OTHER PURPOSES. 

Basis for Alternative Goal 1 

This goal responds to direction from Congress in the 
P.L. 96-514 Statement of Policy, that revises and 
modifies the Statement of Policy transmitted by the 
President to Congress in July 1980, as required by the 
Resources Planning Act of 1974. In the revision. Con- 
gress stated that "...the productivity of suitable 



12 



forested land, in all ownerships, should be main- 
tained and enhanced to . . . permit a net export of 
forest products by the year 2030." It also responds 
to a recommendation in the Report on the National 
Conference on Renewable Resources , sponsored by the 
American Forestry Association and 23 other national 
organizations concerned with renewable natural 
resources, and a recommendation of the forest indus- 
try in an Agenda for Forest Productivity in the 
1980's . 

Implications of Alternative Goal 1 

1. I nvestments . — Achieving this goal would 
require large increases in investments in the Forest 
Service State and Private Forestry programs of tech- 
nical and financial assistance and in private in- 
vestments in the years immediately ahead. After the 
level of investment necessary to achieve the supply 
objective in 2030 is attained, needs would level 
off. A substantial part of the assistance in the 
early years would need to be directed at attaining 
improvements in utilization — a means of extending 
supplies in the short run and responding to the 
rapid rise in demands in the 1980's. In the longer 
run, the programs must be directed at increasing net 
annual growth, the only means of producing enough 
timber to meet the goal. Most of the benefits from 
these investments would not be realized for several 
decades. 

Investments in National Forest System programs would 
follow a similar pattern, although the increases in 
dollars would probably be smaller. To respond to 
the growth in demands in the 1980's, there would be 



a need to fund accelerated harvests and road con- 
struction on western National Forests with signifi- 
cant inventories of old-growth timber and to miti- 
gate adverse impacts of the added harvests on the 
environment and other uses of these timberlands. 
There would be a related need for larger investments 
to establish and care for replacement stands. 
Accelerated harvests and improved utilization are the 
only practical ways of significantly raising softwood 
t inter supplies above the 1979 Assessment base level 
projections for the 1980 's and 1990 's. 

Investments in Forest Service Research programs 
would also follow the patterns described above. To 
respond to the growth in demands in the 1980 's, it 
would be necessary to initially concentrate a sub- 
stantial part of the increased funding on utilization 
research — the best research opportunity to extend 
supplies in the next few years. There would also be 
a need for research on ways to minimize the adverse 
impacts of accelerated harvesting and to increase the 
efficiency of establishing and managing replacement 
stands. In a broader sense there will be a rapidly 
expanding need for research to develop natural or 
lower cost ways of regenerating stands to desirable 
species, reduce the lag betweeeen harvest and stand 
establishment, and lower the cost of intensive 
management practices. 

2. Economic efficiency . — Most of the direct 
investments necessary to achieve this goal would 
yield 4 percent or more annually, measured in con- 
stant dollars. Some of the investments, and par- 
ticularly some of the public investments, would 
yield less than 4 percent in direct returns and may 
direct capital from more productive uses. 



The partial analyses that have been made indicate 
that, when all economic, social, and environmental 
benefits are considered, they are likely to be sub- 
stantially above the public and private costs. 

3. Outputs . --By 1990, softwood timber supplies 
would be increased from 1 to 2 billion cubic feet 
above the base level projections in the 1979 Assess- 
ment. By 2030, timber supplies would be increased 
by 5 to 7 billion cubic feet of softwoods and 0.5 to 
1.0 billion cubic feet of hardwoods over the base 
level projections in the Assessment. 

4. Prices . — Softwood stumpage prices would 
rise fairly rapidly in the 1980's and to a lesser 
degree in the 1990 's. As softwood timber supplies 
increase after 2000, stumpage prices would begin to 
decline and, by 2030, would probably be below the 
1976 trend level. Such a decline would probably 
have important adverse impacts on receipts from tim- 
ber sales on public lands and could adversely affect 
the management of these lands. The impacts on pri- 
vate landowners would depend on the amount and type 
of assistance received and timber produced. 

The rate of increase in softwood stumpage prices in 
the 1980 's and 1990 's will depend on the increase in 
supplies obtainable through accelerated harvests on 
the National Forests and improvements in utiliza- 
tion. There would be a decline in hardwood stumpage 
prices through the projection period. 

5. Consumer costs . — Consumer costs of timber 
products would follow the same pattern as prices, 
and by 2030, the cost of most timber products would 
be below recent levels if this goal is achieved. 



13 



This would have favorable effects on many major tim- 
ber product markets, especially housing. Both the 
quantity and quality of housing would increase. By 
2030, consumer savings could be more than $7 billion 
a year below what they would be, given the equili- 
brium prices defined in the 1979 Assessment. On the 
other hand, there would be increased costs to tax- 
payers to fund the necessary public investments in 
management and utilization programs. 

6. Nonrenewable resources . --To the extent that 
lumber and plywood are substituted for steel, alumi- 
num, concrete, and plastics, the volume of fossil 
fuels used and of nonrenewable resources mined and 
processed would be reduced. The gains would be some- 
what offset by the increased need for fossil fuels 
and metals used in machinery to increase timber 
production. 

7. Environment . --Thi s goal could have favorable 
effects on the environment. To the extent that 
lumber and plywood are substituted for steel, alumi- 
num, concrete, and plastics, the environmental 
effects related to the production of nonwood products 
would be reduced. This would be offset to some degree 
by the increased costs and environmental impacts of 
more intensive timber management and impacts on 
other uses of commercial timberlands. Minimum legal 
standards for environmental protection would be met 

or exceeded. 

8. Renewable resources . --With this goal, the 
opportunities to use the land for most other purposes 
would be enhanced. This would, however, require sub- 
stantial increases in public and private funding to 



14 



mitigate the impacts of intensified management and 
increased timber harvests. 

9. Communi ty . --Ach i evi ng this goal would have 
major impacts on timber inventories, net annual 
growth, level of timber harvests, and economic 
activity in all forested regions. These impacts 
would be largest on the higher site lands in pri- 
vate ownership on the Pacific Coast and in the South 
where the economic opportunities for management 
intensification are concentrated. Most of the 
investments to increase softwood timber growth and 
the increase in softwood timber are likely to be in 
these regions. There are also likely to be 
increases in the harvests of hardwood timber, 
chiefly in the East. 

Increases in timber harvests and shifts in the rela- 
tive importance of regions as sources of timber are 
certain to bring about shifts in the location of 
processing plants and timber-based employment- -with 
associated impacts on communities. The changes will 
be largest in the South, where most of the potential 
exists for increasing softwood timber growth. There 
will also be important impacts in the North, as 
hardwood harvests increase, and on the Pacific 
Coast, as first the old-growth forests are harvested 
and next harvests from second-growth forests 
increase. 

The timber resources on a number of western National 
Forests and their associated communities would be 
affected in significant ways in the 1980' s and 
1990's. In general, the volume of harvests would 
rise; the old-growth inventory would be reduced 



rapidly; and costs would increase for regenerating 
timber stands, protecting the environment, and 
enhancing the opportunities to use the land for 
other purposes. 

Receipts from National Forests shared with the States 
in the West will rise dramatically under this goal 
in the 1980 's and 1990 's. The price-dampening effect 
of increased sale volumes, however, will reduce the 
rate of increase per unit of timber harvested after 
2000 and offset part of the effects of increased 
total volumes. Direct receipts to the Federal Trea- 
sury from stumpage sales and taxes from timber-based 
income would follow a similar pattern. 

10. Timber-processing industries . --Achi evement 

of this goal would greatly expand the volume of sales, 
and presumably the profitability, of most timber-pro- 
cessing industries. The growth would be largest in 
the softwood lumber industry. 

11. Employment and income . — Achieving this goal 
would result in increases in employment and income in 
the forest industries in most forested regions over 
the levels that would prevail under the base and 
equilibrium projections of timber supply shown in 
the 1979 Assessment. These gains in employment and 
income could be offset, in part, by reductions in 
other industries and regions. 

12. International trade . — Under this goal, the 
United States would be a net volume exporter of tim- 
ber products by 2030. This would have favorable 
effects on domestic timber-processing industries, 
including both the volume of production and employment. 



There would be a large timber products trade surplus 
in value terms. Benefits would accrue to importing 
countries, but there would probably be unfavorable 
effects on the forestry sectors in timber product 
exporting countries, including Canada and many 
developing countries. 

13. Technol ogy . --Research will concentrate a 
substantial part of the increased funding on utili- 
zation--the best research opportunity to extend 
supplies in the next few years. Research will also 
analyze ways to minimize the adverse impacts of 
accelerated harvesting and to increase the effi- 
ciency of establishing and managing replacement 
stands. In a broader sense, there will be a rapidly 
expanding need for research to develop natural or 
lower cost ways of regenerating stands to desirable 
species, reduce the lag between harvest and stand 
establishment, and lower the cost of intensive 
management practices. 

Alternative Goal 2 

MANAGE AND USE THE NATION'S TIMBER RESOURCES, USING 
ECONOMIC OPPORTUNITIES TO INCREASE AND EXTEND TIMBER 
SUPPLIES AND INCREASE EXPORTS WHILE PROTECTING THE 
ENVIRONMENT AND PROVIDING OPPORTUNITIES TO USE TIM- 
BERLANDS FOR OTHER PURPOSES. 

Basis for Alternative Goal 2 

This goal responds to the direction in the Resources 
Planning Act of 1974 and the National Forest Manage- 
ment Act of 1976 to use economic efficiency as a 
major criteria for making investments in renewable 



15 



resource programs. It also responds to the view that 
investments in timber management and utilization pro- 
grams should yield direct rates of return comparable 
to the opportunity cost of capital in the private 
sector. 

Implications of Alternative Goal 2 

The implications of this goal are basically the same 
as those described for alternative goal 1. They would, 
however, differ in degree: investments in State and 
Private, National Forest, and Research programs would 
be lower and all would yield direct rates of return of 
4 percent or more in constant dollars; prices would 
continue to increase, but at a reduced rate; exports 
would rise although there would still be a net import 
balance on a volume basis (there may be a surplus in 
value terms); and impacts on the environment, nonre- 
newable resources, timber-processing industries, 
employment and income, and the timber resource would 
be in the same direction, but at lower levels. 

By 1990, softwood timber supplies would be increased 
from 1 to 2 billion cubic feet above the base level 
projections in the 1979 Assessment. By 2030, soft- 
wood timber supplies would be increased by 4 to 6 
billion cubic feet and hardwoods by 0.5 to 1 billion 
cubic feet over the base level projection. These 
increases are below those attainable under goal 1. 

National Forest receipts shared with States and direct 
receipts to the Federal Treasury from stumpage sales, 
taxes from timber-based income, and Federal expendi- 
tures on programs would follow the same time pattern 
as in alternative goal 1. The rate of increase per 



16 



unit of stumpage sold will be higher than in alter- 
native goal 1, but there would be a lower volume of 
sal es. 

Alternative Goal 3 

MANAGE AND USE THE NATION'S TIMBER RESOURCES, USING 
THE BEST DOMESTIC ECONOMIC AND INTERNATIONAL TRADE 
OPPORTUNITIES TO SATISFY PROJECTED DOMESTIC DEMANDS 
WHILE PROTECTING THE ENVIRONMENT AND PROVIDING 
OPPORTUNITIES TO USE TIMBERLANDS FOR OTHER PURPOSES. 

Basis for Alternative Goal 3 

This goal also responds to the direction in the 
Resources Planning Act of 1974 and the National For- 
est Management Act of 1976 to use economic effi- 
ciency as a major criteria for making investments in 
renewable resource programs. In addition, it 
responds to the views that increases in the prices 
of renewable resource products are desirable from 
the standpoint of providing incentive for increased 
investments in management and utilization programs 
and that the rates of increase in prices in the 
1950 — 76 period are acceptable from the standpoint 
of economy and the society. 

Implications of Alternative Goal 3 

Most of the implications of this goal differ only in 
degree from those described in alternative goals 1 
and 2. Investments in State and Private, National 
Forest, and Research programs would be lower, and 
all would yield more direct returns than 4 percent 
in constant dollars. Impacts on the environment. 



nonrenewable resources, timber-processing industries, 
employment and income, and the timber resource would 
be reduced. In contrast, however, stumpage and tim- 
ber product prices would continue the trends or levels 
established in the 1950--76 period. For softwood stum- 
page and lumber there would be increases — about 0.7 
percent per year for lumber. Total exports would not 
change significantly in volume terms, and net imports 
would continue to rise (there may be a deficit in value 
terms). 

By 1990, softwood timber supplies would be increased 
from 1 to 2 billion cubic feet over base level pro- 
jections in the 1979 Assessment. By 2030, softwood 
timber supplies would be increased by 2.5 billion 
cubic feet and hardwoods by 0.3 to 0.5 billion cubic 
feet above the base level projections. These increases 
are substantilly below those attainable under goals 1 
and 2. 

National Forest receipts shared with States and direct 
receipts to the Federal Treasury from stumpage sales, 
taxes from timber-based income, and expenditures on 
programs would rise through the projection period. 
The rate of increase per unit of stumpage sold will be 
higher than in goals 1 and 2 and the total volume of 
sales 1 ower. 



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19 



RANGE PRODUCTIVITY 



Needs and Opportunities 
The Demand and Supply Outlook 

The 1979 Assessment projected that demand for range 
grazing by domestic animals would grow 46 percent by 
2030, rising from 213 million to 310 million animal- 
unit-months (AUM's). Substantial increases in the 
demands from range and timber lands are expected for 
wildlife forage and habitat and for other uses such as 
outdoor recreation and watersheds. Nearly all of the 
demand for domestic and animal grazing on rangelands 
and grazeable forests will occur in the contiguous 48 
St ates. 

Forage supply can be substantially increased from range- 
lands and grazeable forests by improving range condi- 
tion, intensifying management, and utilizing unused and 
transitory ranges. More than half of the range in the 
contiguous 48 States is in unsatisfactory condition; 
that is, producing at less than 40 percent of its natu- 
ral potential productivity. However, Soil Conservation 
Service analyses have concluded that range conditions 
improved in the last 10 years. 

Social, Economic, and Environmental Effects 

Failure to increase range forage production has some 
implications. It means, for example, that increased 
demands for domestic animal forage must be supplied 
from other sources such as grains and harvested rough- 
ages. This can mean either higher production costs, 
including energy demands, or a reduction in the amount 
of red meat consumed per capita. 



20 



Management of the Nation's rangeland requires a 
flexible approach because of diverse vegetation, 
soil types, and conditions. Probably a much higher 
proportion of forage increases will be produced from 
private holdings, as opposed to Federal range, 
because the forage production potential of private 
range is generally higher and such lands respond 
favorably to cost-effective vegetation treatment. 

Range in satisfactory condition provides the great- 
est opportunity for economic growth for ranch and 
farm operators. This, in turn, increases employ- 
ment and income on ranches, farms, and associated 
dependent communities. Satisfactory range condi- 
tions contribute to soil stability, protect soil 
productivity, and enhance other resource uses. In 
some cases, opportunities for restoration of range 
in poor condition may be limited because costs 
exceed returns. 

Resource Base 

In total, 883 million acres, or 39 percent of the 
total area of the United States, is classified as 
rangeland (this includes pi nyon-juniper and chap- 
arral-mountain shrub ecosystems often classed as 
forest land). About 74 percent of this area, or 
some 652 million acres, is in the contiguous States. 
There is an additional 553 million acres of forest 
land, much of it suitable for grazing. Over half of 
the rangelands in the contiguous States are in pri- 
vate ownership and are located mainly in the Great 
Plains and Rocky Mountains. 



The range! ands and grazeable forest lands have the 
capacity, under more intensive management, to supply 
the projected increases in demands. The estimated 
biological potential of these lands is 566 million 
animal -unit-months of grazing, nearly three times the 
present level of production and nearly twice the pro- 
jected level of demand in 2030. 

Opportunities 

There is a wide range of opportunities available to 
increase the supply of forage for domestic livestock 
and wildlife and to improve the ecological condition 
of grazing lands: 

— Improve range conditions with improved grazing 
systems and livestock management practices. 

— Make range improvements such as fencing and devel- 
opment of water supplies to bring currently unused 
and underused rangeland into higher productivity. 

— Rehabilitate depleted ranges and increase forage 
production by seeding palatable grasses and leg- 
umes. This may also provide forage during periods 
when other plants are not available. 

— Control shrubs such as mesquite and sagebrush that 
invade rangelands and reduce forage production. 

— Control poisonous plants, such as larkspur, in the 
Rocky Mountains. 

— Control noxious weeds. 



Control insects and diseases that destroy vege- 
tation and limit natural seed production. 

Manage and manipulate chaparral brushland for 
potential benefits to increase range outputs, 
as well as fisheries, wildlife, soil, water, 
fire suppression, and recreation. Chaparral 
also has potential as biomass for pulp and 
fuel . 

Increase grazing on forested land, where appro- 
priate. Timber management practices such as 
harvesting, thinning, and site preparation usu- 
ally result in a temporary increase in forage 
production as well as improvement of the tim- 
ber stand. The timing and intensity of these 
activities can increase the amount and, to 
some extent, the period of forage availability. 

Demonstrate and practice sound principles of 
range management technology on National Forest 
System (NFS) grazing lands and cooperate with 
other departments and agencies to make range 
management technology available to public and 
private rangeland managers. 

Intensify research to develop cost-effective 
methods to revegetate disturbed rangelands; 
control undesirable insects, diseases and 
plants; and develop improved plants, especially 
nitrogen-fixing varieties. Use current 
research results and emphasize development of 
equipment and plant materials, for example, to 
implement research. 



21 



Alternative Goals and Implications 



Alternative Goal 1 

MANAGE NATIONAL FOREST SYSTEM RANGE TO SUPPLY A 
GREATER SHARE OF THE DEMAND FOR DOMESTIC LIVESTOCK 
AND WILDLIFE FORAGE, FOSTER A PRODUCTIVE LIVESTOCK 
INDUSTRY AND STABLE RURAL COMMUNITIES, AND PROTECT 
AND IMPROVE RANGE ECOSYSTEMS. 

Basis for Alternative Goal 1 

This goal provides maximum opportunities for manage- 
ment and use of the NFS range forage resource, while 
protecting and improving the ecological condition of 
range ecosystems. The 15.5 million animal -unit-months 
of stock grazing from National Forest System lands 
represent a larger share of the projected demand (310 
million animal -unit-months for grazing) by 2030 than 
what the Forest Service currently supplies. Accomp- 
lishing this will require increasing coordination 
with other resource uses, utilizing transitory range 
opportunities and intensive grazing on the most pro- 
ductive lands. In addition, intensifying grazing on 
the most productive sites would also involve increased 
used of grazing opportunities on National Forests in 
the eastern United States. Low-condition rangelands, 
presently grazed with little opportunity for improve- 
ment, would have livestock grazing phased out. Discon- 
tinuous grazing systems such as rest-rotation would be 
employed, along with introduction of improved forage 
species on suitable sites. Although the most economic 
opportunities would be sought, direct cost to the 
Government would be substantial and would exceed market 
value for the forage. 



22 



Implications of Alternative Goal 1 



1. Investments . --Achi evi ng alternative goal 1 
would require increased and accelerated investments 
in range management and improvements on National 
Forest System ranges. 

State and Private Forestry program funding for 
technical and financial assistance through other 
Federal and State agencies to improve forage pro- 
duction on non-Federal forested ranges would 
increase accordingly. 

Funding for Research would be greatly increased in 
an effort to develop more cost-effective techniques 
to increase forage production and improve range con- 
ditions on ranges of all ownerships, but would 
emphasize developing techniques applicable on 
National Forest System rangelands. 

2. Outputs . --Improved management on National 
Forest System ranges would increase production from 
9.9 to 15.5 million AUM's by 2030 or an increase of 
57 percent. 

3. Prices . --Price of red meat would be 
rel ati vely unaffected . 

4. Economi c ef f i c i ency . - -Al though the most 
economic opportunities would be sought, direct costs 
to the Government would be substantial and would 
exceed market value of the forage discounted to the 
present 7-1/8-percent discount rate. At a 4-percent 
discount rate, present net benefits would exceed 
present value costs. Unit cost for operation and 



maintenance would decrease as grazing is intensified 
on the most productive areas. Unit costs for capital 
investments would also decrease. 

5. Nonrenewable resources . — Alternative goal 1 
would require an increase in the amount of fossil fuel 
used per AUM produced. Most of the projected range 
improvement practices are energy intensive. 

6. Renewable resources . — Attainment of alternative 
goal 1 would increase physical productivity (yield per 
acre) and decrease economic productivity (return per 
dollar invested). It would provide for the improvement 
of those ranges in unsatisfactory condition. Opportu- 
nities to use the land for other purposes would be 
improved. This improvement would require substantial 
increases in funding to accommodate intensified manage- 
ment and increased range production. It fully protects 
the environment and provides for the legal minimum 
standards for soil, water, wildlife, cultural resources, 
recreation, and other resources. 

7. Community . — Alternative goal 1 would expand 
livestock numbers on NFS ranges and, presumably, the 
profitability of the livestock, meatpacking, and 
related industries in local communities. 

8. Employment and income . — Alternative goal 1 
would increase income of locally dependent livestock 
industry and employment and personal incomes in the 
dependent rural communities, particularly in the 
western United States. 



9. International . — Alternative goal 1 would exceed 
the current Forest Service share of the projected 



national demand for red meat and could contribute 
to a slight reduction of meat imported from foreign 
sources. 

10. Technology . --This goal would provide tech- 
nology to produce forage at a level commensurate 
with the production potential on range and associ- 
ated forest lands, while protecting and enhancing 
the ecosystems. Research will include development 
of standardized inventory systems, development of 
improved management methods for rangelands, and 
identification of cost-effective range treatments 
and management practices. 

Alternative Goal 2 

MANAGE NATIONAL FOREST SYSTEM RANGE TO SUPPLY ITS 
CURRENT SHARE OF THE PROJECTED DEMAND FOR DOMESTIC 
LIVESTOCK AND WILDLIFE FORAGE, CONTRIBUTE TO MAIN- 
TENANCE OF THE LIVESTOCK INDUSTRY AND RURAL COMMUN- 
ITIES, AND PROTECT AND IMPROVE RANGE ECOSYSTEMS. 

Basis for Alternative Goal 2 

This goal responds to the direction from Congress 
in the revised President's Statement of Policy for 
the 1980 RPA Program. In the revision. Congress 
stated that ". . . (range) lands should be main- 
tained and enhanced, including their water and 
other resource values, so that they can annually 
provide 310 million animal-unit-months of forage by 
the year 2030, along with other benefits." In addi- 
tion, they stated ". . . that the high bound pro- 
gram may not be sufficient to accomplish the goals 



23 



contained in this statement, particularly in the area 
of range resources." 

Under this goal, the National Forest System would be 
managed to supply in the year 2030 the same share of 
the projected demand for forage as they currently 
supply, or a projected 14.5 million animal -unit- 
months. Accomplishing this will require increasing 
coordination with other resource uses, utilizing 
transitory range opportunities, and managing live- 
stock grazing use on the productive lands. Range- 
lands in low ecological condition would be improved. 
Where such lands are presently grazed and cannot be 
improved on a cost-effective basis, grazing would 
be phased out. In addition to intensive grazing on 
the most productive sites, grazing use would also 
involve increased usage of grazing opportunities on 
National Forests in the eastern United States. 
Although the most economic opportunities would be 
sought, direct cost to the Government would be sub- 
stantial and would probably exceed market value for 
the forage. 

Implications of Alternative Goal 2 

The implications of this goal are basically the same 
as those described for alternative goal 1. National 
Forest System and State and Private Forestry goals 
would differ in degree (i.e., funding needs would be 
lower). Outputs from National Forest System ranges 
would be about 14.5 million AUM's of grazing by 2030. 

Although the most economic opportunities would be 
sought, direct cost to the Government would be sub- 
stantial and would probably exceed market value for 



24 



forage at a 7-1/8-percent discount rate. Present 
net benefits would exceed present value costs at a 
4-percent discount rate. Unit cost for operation 
and maintenance would decrease as grazing is inten- 
sified on the most productive areas. Unit costs for 
capital investments would also decrease. 

This goal could contribute to a slight reduction in 
meat imported from foreign sources. Impacts on the 
environment, nonrenewable resources, livestock and 
related industries, employment and income, and range 
resources would be reduced. Research would concen- 
trate on protecting and enhancing the quality of 
multiple resource values on rangelands and associ- 
ated forest land. 

Alternative Goal 3 

MANAGE NATIONAL FOREST SYSTEM RANGE TO SUPPLY 
FORAGE FOR DOMESTIC LIVESTOCK AND WILDLIFE WHERE IT 
IS COST-EFFICIENT, WHILE PROTECTING THE INCOME AND 
EMPLOYMENT OF DEPENDENT LIVESTOCK OPERATORS AND 
RURAL COMMUNITIES, AND PROTECT AND IMPROVE THE 
QUALITY OF RANGE ECOSYSTEMS. 

Basis for Alternative Goal 3 

This goal would strive to meet, from the National 
Forest System, the 1980 RPA Program projected out- 
put of 10.6 million animal -unit-months of forage 
production by 2030. The program is designed to 
provide grazing use where it is ecologically and 
economically efficient to do so and is adjusted to 
meet social, political, and environmental needs. 
It covers correction of serious range deterioration. 



while maintaining short-term stability of dependent 
livestock operators. Only the best opportunities 
for cost-efficient grazing would be funded. Some 
intensification of grazing would occur on the most 
productive areas where investment costs are reasonable. 
Ecological conditions would be improved where treat- 
ments are cost-effective. Present value benefits 
will exceed present value cost to the Government at 
a 7-1/8-percent discount rate. 

Implications of Alternative Goal 3 

Most of the implications of this goal differ only in 
degree from those described in alternative goals 1 and 
2. Outputs from National Forest System ranges would 
be 10.6 million AUM's by 2030. Funding needs for 
National Forest System, as well as State and Private 
Forestry programs would be lower, and impacts on the 
environment, nonrenewable resources, livestock indus- 
try, employment and income, and range resources would 
be reduced. Only the best opportunities for cost- 
efficient grazing would be funded. Where improvements 
would not be cost efficient, livestock would be re- 
moved. Market value for the forage will exceed direct 
cost to the Government at a 7-1/8-percent discount 
rate. 

The major economic implication is that major responsi- 
bility for supply of forage is shifted to the private 
sector. Research would seek to provide a cost-effec- 
tive balance between grazing use and range produc- 
tivity, while maintaining environmental value and 
socioeconomic stability of dependent rural commu- 
nities. 



25 







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26 



RECREATION USE 



Needs and Opportunities 
The Demand and Supply Outlook 



In 1980, National Forest System lands received 233 
million recreation visitor days (RVD) 1/ of recrea- 
tion use. In fact, more than 43 percent of recrea- 
tion use reported on all Federal lands occurred 
within the Nation's 154 National Forests. And 
projections based on expected changes in population, 
personal income, geographic distribution, age struc- 
ture, workweek, and work schedules indicate continued 
increases in demand for recreational opportunities on 
forest and range lands. 

Ninety percent of the population lives within 200 
miles of a National Forest. Recent trends indicate 
people generally stay longer on each visit to National 
Forest System lands because of the wide variety of 
recreational opportunities available on them. 

Many States in the West are experiencing a dramatic 
increase in population caused by a variety of factors 
such as the mineral -energy boom. Much of this growth 
is occurring in and adjacent to rural communities and 
is expected to continue for the next 20 to 30 years. 
The National Forests have traditionally supplied a 
large portion of these recreational opportunities. 

On the other hand, without substantial modifications 



1/ A visitor-day is any 12-hour aggregate of 
recreation use. 



of existing programs and facilities, increased 
demand may lead to overuse of some recreational 
facilities close to metropolitan areas because the 
cost of fuel may inhibit travel. 

Recreational opportunities are defined by a classi- 
fication system called the Recreation Opportunity 
Spectrum (R0S).2/ The ROS is divided into six 
classes, each defined in terms of a combination of 
activity, setting, and experience opportunities. 
The classes are primitive, semi primitive nonmoto- 
rized, semiprimitive motorized, roaded natural, 
rural , and urban. 

The primitive class allows little or no modification 
of the natural environment and is characterized by 
limited or difficult access, the absence of facili- 
ties, and relatively few people. The urban class, 
at the other end of the spectrum, is characterized 
by highly developed facilities such as ballfields, 
swimming pools, and developed attractions with sig- 
nificant resource modification. One can expect to 
find numerous people, considerable capital invest- 
ments in elaborate facilities, and substantially 
improved access. 

Demands for activities associated with forest and 
range lands classed as primitive and semiprimitive 



2y The Recreation Opportunity Spectrum (ROS) 
provides a framework for defining the types of out- 
door recreation opportunities available and for 
identifying that portion of the spectrum a given 
National Forest might provide. 



27 



are expected to increase by 60 to 100 percent by 2030; 
demands for activities in more developed settings are 
also expected to increase substantially. For example, 
the 1979 RPA Assessment shows that, by 2030, the demand 
for developed camping can increase by 145 percent, 
driving for pleasure by 40 percent, downhill skiing by 
234 percent, and cross-country skiing by 180 percent. 
Trends also suggest that nature appreciation, the 
desire for clear water, and interest in the preserva- 
tion of open space will also increase. 

These demand estimates are based on the assumption that 
recreational opportunities will be supplied free or 
below cost to the consumer. Increasing user fees to 
cover the costs of providing recreation services and 
opportunities may dampen projected demand. 

The bulk of forest and range lands are located some 
distance from our Nation's most populated areas. Over 
50 percent of the population lives in the north central 
and northeastern regions, which have only 10.5 percent 
of the forest and range land acreage, 91 percent of 
which is privately owned. In contrast, the Pacific 
Coast region has 13.6 percent of the population and 
33.4 percent of the forest and range lands, with only 
12 percent of these 520 million acres in private owner- 
ship. Private lands will continue to be an important 
source of recreational opportunities, especially in the 
Northeast, South, and Midwest where there is less pub- 
lic land. However, the projected loss of forest and 
range land to other uses will curtail opportunities to 
supply outdoor recreation. 

Limitations on public use of private industrial and 
noni ndustrial lands for recreational purposes suggest 



28 



that demands will tend to be concentrated on public 
lands and could be even greater than projections 
indicate, particularly if current policies of pro- 
viding Federal recreational facilities free or below 
cost are continued. Because of these policies, 
investments for needed facilities have been deferred 
and may not keep pace with demand in the future. 
It also suggests a need for more positive induce- 
ments and technical assistance to landowners to 
bring about an increase in private land recreational 
opportunities. Research efforts must continue to 
search for new ways to efficiently measure use, 
forecast trends in demand, and improve measurement 
for recreation while maintaining production of other 
National Forest benefits. 

Social, Economic, and Environmental Effects 

The recreation demand and supply situation of the 
National Forest System has important implications. 
The following examples indicate the magnitude of the 
Forest Service role as a recreation supplier. At 
the end of fiscal year 1980: 

Total Acreage 

National Forest System lands totaled 25 percent 
of the federally owned lands in the United States. 

Campgrounds 

Over 4,800 National Forest facilities comprised 
43 percent of the national Federal supply. 



Downhill skiing 

Over 95 percent of ski area facilities and 
skiing use on Federal land occurred on the National 
Forests. 

Trail mileage 

National Forests had over 85 percent (97,000 

miles) of all trails on Federal lands. 

As people's expectations have changed, recreational 
facilities have become more elaborate and more expen- 
sive to construct and maintain. Public use of the 
National Forests could be severely limited without 

supplemental funding sources. Increased user charges 
would substantially help to correct this problem. 

However, expenditures for outdoor recreational travel 
and activities are beneficial to local economies sup- 
ported by these activities, especially in conjunction 
with direct sales of recreational goods and services. 
Industries producing recreational goods and services 
stimulate local economies through employment, pay- 
rolls, and increased tax base. Therefore, local com- 
munities and service industries have a direct interest 
in providing adequate investment funds and assistance 
for recreation development, management, and mainte- 
nance. 

Resource Base 

The 1.7 billion acres of forest, rangeland, and asso- 
ciated water in the United States have the capability 
to meet the projected increase in demand for nearly 
all outdoor recreational experiences. However, the 
supply of lands to provide primitive and semiprimit i ve 



recreational experiences is rapidly declining in 
many areas. Statistically, 47 percent of the total 
forest and range land is in private ownership, and 
over 90 percent of the Federal acreage is in the 
western United States, including Alaska. 

In total, these lands are rich in diversity of top 
graphy, vegetation, and climate. But there are 
shortages of some types of water-based recreation 
and highly specialized sites for activities such as 
downhill skiing. 

Opportunities 

There are numerous opportunities to provide for 
additional outdoor recreational experiences on all 
forest and range lands in all regions of the coun- 
try. Major opportunities for meeting the diverse 
demands include: 

Improved Development and Use of the Outdoor Recrea- 
tion Resource 

— Rehabilitate deteriorating sites and maintain 
existing facilities. 

— Develop new sites in response to proven demand. 

— Develop facilities that improve access to 
National Forest System lands and private lands. 

— Increase recreation user fees to help pay the 
cost of providing services. 



29 



Further develop facilities such as trails, 
boat ramps, and parking to promote more even 
distribution of recreation use. 

— Encourage the private sector to develop commer- 
cial services such as resorts and campgrounds 
on private lands. 

Improved Cooperative Efforts 

— Provide advice on development and operation of 
privately owned recreation facilities on or 
adjacent to National Forest lands. 

-- Develop Federal facilities so that they comple- 
ment rather than compete with opportunities 
provided by the private sector. 

-- Provide tax and insurance information. 

— Emphasize joint planning so Federal, State, and 
local efforts are complementary. 

-- Provide technical assistance to non-Federal 
landowners through State forestry organizations 
for developing noni ncome-produci ng recreational 
opportunities. 

Research Opportunities 

— Develop better methods of describing and measuring 
recreation benefits. 

— Evaluate participation trends. 



30 



— Improve knowledge of resource capability and 
social and economic benefits. 

— Evaluate effects of land management planning 
decisions. 



Alternative Goals and Implications 



Alternative Goal 1 

MANAGE NATIONAL FOREST SYSTEM LANDS TO PROVIDE 
RECREATIONAL ACTIVITIES AND EXPERIENCES EMPHASIZING 
THE FOREST SETTING AND ACCESSIBILITY FOR PEOPLE. 
PROVIDE ONLY THE SERVICES NECESSARY TO PROTECT OTHER 
RESOURCES AND PUBLIC HEALTH AND SAFETY NEEDS. 

Basis for Alternative Goal 1 

This goal is intended to emphasize protection of 
nonrecreational resource values and provide only 
those services and facilities necessary to meet pub- 
lic health and safety needs. Investments for main- 
tenance of recreational facilities would be minimal 
resulting in further deterioration of existing 
facilities. Recreation support to other projects 
would be based on minimum funding to meet compliance 
levels in the short term. Direct costs to the 
Government would exceed anticipated returns since 
fees would not be charged at most sites because 
facilities would not meet minimum services required 
by law at fee sites. There would be continued sig- 
nificant deferring of capital investments. 



Implications of Alternative Goal 1 



1. I nvestments . — This goal requires minimal 
recreation investment and expenditures. The invest- 
ment objective would be to protect nonrecreation 
resource values and productivity and adequately pro- 
vide for the health and safety of National Forest 
users. As public use of the National Forests contin- 
ues to increase, funding requirements for this goal 
will also increase; however. Forest Service facili- 
ties such as campgrounds, picnic areas, and trails, 
would deteriorate and not be replaced. Federal bud- 
gets would be reduced, with corresponding favorable 
impacts on the general taxpayer. 

2. Outputs . — Recreation visitor use and parti- 
cipation on the National Forest is continuing to 
increase. The availability of recreation opportuni- 
ties appears to be very important in determining 
future participation in recreation activities. Since 
this goal provides only minimal services to satisfy 
increasing public use. National Forest recreation 
outputs would increase at a lesser rate than goals 2 
and 3. As National Forest recreation facilities are 
depreciated and closed, the free and low-cost oppor- 
tunities for developed recreation would decline, 
offering the private sector additional opportunities 
to provide developed facilities and services. By 
2000, recreation use or participation on National 
Forest System lands would increase to 270 to 290 
million RVD's. The quality of these recreational 
experiences would be reduced to a level below that 
presently considered minimal, providing only those 

services necessary to user health and safety. 
National Forest settings would be maintained only 



to the level necessary to protect other resource 
val ues. 

3. Community . — In terms of economic activity 
related to recreation use, this goal would provide 
the least benefit to those communities dependent on 
recreation expenditures. With reduced Federal 
recreation expenditures, there would be some 
increases in the investment level by the private 
sector. 

4. Employment and income . — Achieving this goal 
would result in a significant decrease in public 
recreation employment related to National Forest 
recreation. This reduction could be offset somewhat 
by increased participation and employment in the 
private sector. 

5. Private sector . — With a reduced Federal 
investment level, this goal could result in an 
increase in private sector recreation investments. 
The private sector may respond with investments in 
facilities and services not provided on National 
Forests. Federal policy would continue to limit 
private investments on National Forest lands. 

6. Technology . — Goal 1 would limit the level 
and scope of recreation research. Research would 
focus on inventorying recreation opportunities and 
determining future recreation demands and 
preferences. 



31 



Alternative Goal 2 



MANAGE NATIONAL FOREST SYSTEM LANDS TO PROVIDE RECREA- 
TIONAL ACTIVITIES AND EXPERIENCES EMPHASIZING THE FOR- 
EST SETTING AND ACCESSIBILITY FOR PEOPLE. PROVIDE 
SERVICES NECESSARY TO CONTINUE TO MEET THE NATIONAL 
FOREST SHARE OF THE DEMAND FOR FOREST AND RANGE-BASED 
OUTDOOR RECREATION. 

Basis for Alternative Goal 2 

This goal is intended to enhance the supply of 
National Forest recreation opportunities and meet 
the National Forest share of recreation demand on 
all lands. Increased costs for maintenance would be 
substantially offset by anticipated user fee receipts. 
Recreation use of the National Forests would increase 
at an average current rate for all uses. Costs would 
still exceed returns; however, additional receipts 
would be collected since a greater share of the faci- 
lities would meet service requirements. Fee levels 
would also increase, further enhancing returns from 
recreation investments and use. 

Implications of Alternative Goal 2 

1. I nvestments . — This goal requires moderate 
increases in recreation investments. In addition to 
protecting other resource values and maintaining pro- 
ductivity, this goal provides for managing the recrea- 
tion resource for recreation values. To meet the 
National Forest share of demand, there would be 
increased expenditures for maintenance and construc- 
tion of recreation facilities including roads, trails, 
campgrounds, and picnic areas. Increased funding would 



32 



permit investments to reconstruct and correct unsat- 
isfactory conditions of many recreation facilities. 
Only minimal new construction would occur. 

2. Outputs . — Under this alternative goal. 
National Forests would maintain present standards 
and provide quality recreation experiences that a 
necessary to meet their share of the demand. Out- 
puts of recreation use would be greater than goal 1, 
because of the improved quality and quantity of ser- 
vices provided. By year 2000, National Forest Sys- 
tem lands would provide opportunities for 290 to 310 
million RVD's. The private sector would be encour- 
aged to develop and provide facilities and services 
on National Forest System lands. 

3. Community . --Goal 2 would provide a greater 
volume of recreation opportunities, supplied by 
both public and private sectors. The economic con- 
dition of communities supporting recreation use 
would be enhanced. Increased receipts from user 
charges would result in increased payments to 
States. Since these payments represent significant 
proportions of some county government revenues, any 
increase in user collections would tend to improve 
community economic conditions. 

4. Employment and income . — Under this goal, 
participation in recreation activities will increase 
and provide additional employment opportunities. 
Increasing user fees with concurrent increases in 
use would result in additional fee receipts. 

5. Private sector . --This goal implies mod- 
erate participation Dy the private sector in the 



delivery of recreation services on National Forest 
lands. Increases in outfitter guide services and in 
the development and operation of improved facilities 
would be expected. 

6. Technology . — This goal requires a moderate 
increase in research expenditures. In addition to 
goal 1 efforts, there would be emphasis on social 
values of recreation, economic and social analyses of 
land use development patterns, and effects of energy 
costs on recreation participation. 

Alternative Goal 3 

MANAGE NATIONAL FOREST SYSTEM LANDS TO PROVIDE RECRE- 
ATIONAL ACTIVITIES AND EXPERIENCES EMPHASIZING THE 
FOREST SETTING AND ACCESSIBILITY FOR PEOPLE. INCREASE 
THE CONTRIBUTION OF NATIONAL FORESTS TO MEET THE OVER- 
ALL PUBLIC NEED FOR FOREST AND RANGE-BASED OUTDOOR 
RECREATION, PARTICULARLY WHERE NATIONAL FOREST LANDS 
ARE BEST SUITED. 

Basis for Alternative Goal 3 

This goal is intended to increase the National Forest 
share of recreation opportunities, thereby facilitat- 
ing increased recreation use on the National Forests. 
Because of the increased quality and quantity of 
recreation facilities, returns from user fees would 
increase; however, costs would still exceed receipts. 
Returns from user fees would increase more than 
increases in costs. This goal implies maximum parti- 
cipation from the private sector in the delivery of 
recreation services on National Forest System lands. 
As in Goal 2, user charges would continue to increase. 



Implications of Alternative Goal 3 



1. Investments . — This would require a signifi- 
cant increase in recreation investment to provide 
additional facilities to increase the supply of 
National Forest opportunities and to improve the 
condition of unsatisfactory facilities as well as to 
construct new facilities. In addition, the private 
sector would be encouraged, through various incen- 
tives, to participate in the development and 
delivery of recreation facilities and services on 
National Forest lands. Forest Service investments 
would generally be for opportunities where benefits 
were less than costs. 

2. Outputs . — Under this alternative, recreation 
use would be greater than goal 2 because of the 
improved quality and increased quantity of services 
provided. National Forest System lands would pro- 
vide opportunities for 400 to 420 million RVD's. 

3. Community . — Goal 3 would provide increased 
recreation opportunities. The economic conditions 
of communities supplying recreation services would 
be enhanced. Rapid increase in use may disturb 
community stability in some local areas. 

4. Employment and income . --Goal 3 expands 
employment opportunities and implies increased 
income and employment levels. 

5. Private sector . — This goal would require 
significant involvement and participation by the 
private sector. The private sector would be 
encouraged to develop, operate, and maintain a 



33 



variety of recreation facilities and services on 
National Forest System lands. However, there may be 
some decline in private investment and use on private 
1 ands. 

6. Technol ogy . --Research efforts in goal 3 would 
be similar to those described in goal 2, although 
efforts would be accelerated. 

Alternative Goal 4 

MANAGE NATIONAL FOREST SYSTEM LANDS TO PROVIDE REC- 
REATIONAL ACTIVITIES AND EXPERIENCES EMPHASIZING THE 
FOREST SETTING AND ACCESSIBILITY BY USING ECONOMIC 
OPPORTUNITIES TO MEET THE PUBLIC NEED FOR FOREST AND 
RANGE LAND-BASED OUTDOOR RECREATION. 

Basis for Alternative Goal 4 

This goal is intended to capture available opportu- 
nities for management and use of National Forest 
System lands for recreation opportunities only where 
anticipated benefits would exceed costs. User fees 
would be raised to provide a positive return on the 
direct operation and maintenance costs associated with 
recreation opportunities on National Forest System 
lands. Market pricing systems may result in a reduced 
level of recreation use on the National Forests. 

Implications of Alternative Goal 4 

1. Investments . --This goal requires moderate 
increases in recreation investments similar to goal 
2. The significant difference is that recreation 
investments will be made only in those situations 



34 



where direct returns will equal or exceed costs for 
operation and maintenance. 

2. Outputs . — Under this alternative goal, the 
National Forests would maintain present standards 
and provide quality recreation experiences that are 
necessary to meet their share of the demand. Out- 
puts would be similar to goal 2; however, market 
pricing principles would limit use. User fees 
would be increased significantly. In addition, fees 
would be levied for other activities for which fees 
are not now charged: wilderness use, camping in 
nondevel oped areas; and, through cooperative agree- 
ment with the States, hunting and fishing. Market 
pricing concepts could result in eliminating 
National Forest recreation opportunities for some 
elements of the public. 

3. Community . — Goal 4 would provide about the 
same volume of recreational opportunities as goal 2. 
The economic condition of some communities would be 
enhanced through increased payments to States and 
reduced Federal budget impacts. 

4. Employment and income . — Employment and in- 
come opportunities would be similar to goal 3. Some 
increase in Federal sector employment would be 
required to administer fee programs. 

5. Private sector . — This is the same as goal 3. 
As Federal price levels begin to equal market 
levels, some additional private sector involvement 
could be expected. 



6. Technology . — Similar to goal 2 



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36 



WILDERNESS USE 



Needs and Opportunities 
The Demand and Supply Outlook 

In Fiscal Year 1980, the National Forest Wildernesses 
received 8.4 million recreation visitor days V of 
use or 3.6 percent of all National Forest System 
recreation visitor days. Reported uses more than 
doubled from 1965 to 1980. Only a small part of this 
increase is because of the addition of new wilderness. 
The 88 areas in existence in 1965 still accounted for 
89 percent of total visitor days in 1980. Their use 
grew 83 percent over 15 years. Demand for recreation 
use of wilderness will grow each year for the next 
several decades. Although recreational activities are 
the most common uses of wilderness, other uses such as 
scientific study, mining, watershed, wildlife, and gra- 
zing, have important implications for assessing demand. 
While it is difficult to quantify demand for nonrecrea- 
tional values of wilderness, demand for most of these 
uses is also likely to increase in the decades ahead. 

Designated wildernesses are intended, by law, for 
recreational, scenic, scientific, educational, con- 
servation, and historic use. Current use levels are 
close to the desirable upper limits for some wilder- 
nesses. Use must be kept at low-density levels if 
unmodified natural conditions are to be protected and 
opportunities for solitude are to be maintained. Car- 
rying capacity will be reached in 30 percent of the 
National Forest wildernesses by 2000 regardless of 
investments. 



'/ A visitor-day is any 12-hour aggregate of recrea- 
tion use. 



While overall use of wilderness has grown substan- 
tially, the land area available for wilderness 
designation has been reduced by development. The 
Nation has significant wilderness resources with 
the capability to meet projected demands for wil- 
derness well into the 21st Century, if those lands 
administered by Federal agencies and considered 
suitable were added to the National Wilderness 
Preservation System and if other critical resource 
values do not preempt the wilderness values causing 
currently designated areas to be declassified. 

Social, Economic, and Environmental Effects 

The wilderness demand and supply situation has 
important implications. Wilderness designation has 
a primary effect on the level of commodity and non- 
commodity uses from the land. Where this balance 
is struck, it affects employment, quality of life, 
and other factors at local, regional, and national 
level s. 

As remaining undeveloped lands are developed, the 
environment will inevitably be impacted in various 
ways. The opportunity to enjoy solitude and primi- 
tive recreation in an environment free of unmodified 
landscapes will be diminished. Air quality, water 
regimes, and fish and wildlife habitats will change 
from those found in unmodified conditions; the pri- 
meval character and influence will be lost in areas 
not designated as wilderness. 

The occurrence and extent of other resources in wil- 
derness, especially energy and mineral resources, 
is not well known. As the Nation seeks to reduce 



37 



its dependence on foreign supplies of critical 
resources, those areas now designated as wilderness 
will come under close scrutiny to determine whether 
they may be better suited for other public purposes. 

The outlook also affects the economy in terms of 
national net benefit. Although few benefits from 
wilderness can be measured in dollars, there is still 
a need to evaluate the demand and supply relationship 
in economic terms. In general, conversion of undevel- 
oped lands to developed ones will generate more direct 
income than could be expected by retaining the lands 
in an unmodified condition. Employment and cost 
returns to various levels of government will increase 
with development of other lands. Thus, although the 
benefits of additional designated wilderness are some- 
times difficult to quantify, the costs in terms of 
foregone Federal, State, and local receipts and tax 
revenues and employment are more easily identified. 

This outlook has some important social implications. 
Leisure opportunities relating to primitive and uncon- 
fined recreation will diminish as lands are developed. 
Communities and local economies depending on outdoor 
activities associated with wild lands may experience 
social changes as the lands undergo development. 
Social concern can be expected as long as the oppor- 
tunity to expand or reduce the National Wilderness 
Preservation System is a viable option to consider. 
Scientific reference and study opportunities will 
also be reduced along with some loss of cultural and 
historic values. 



38 



Resource Base 



The National Wilderness Preservation System consists 
of 257 areas totaling about 80 million acres. The 
Forest Service administers 158 units totaling 25 
million acres. The National Park Service, Fish and 
Wildlife Service, and the Forest Service will have 
essentially achieved their total wilderness poten- 
ial when action on the wilderness areas currently 
under consideration is completed. This leaves the 
Bureau of Land Management (BLM) as the major source 
of additional Federal lands with potential for wil- 
derness classification. The BLM administers 24 mil- 
lion acres of roadless or undeveloped land judged 
suitable for consideration as wilderness. State and 
local governments also have opportunities to set 
aside land to be preserved in their natural state. 
Generally, these lands do not meet Federal standards 
for designation or management as wilderness. 

Opportunities 

There are a number of opportunities for increasing 
the size and capacity to absorb use of the National 
Wilderness Preservation System. 

Area Adjustments 

— Complete the review of all suitable Federal 
lands and recommend to the Congress those units 
that warrant designation. 

— Consider the role of other public and private 
lands in the protection of the wilderness 
resource. 



— Restore primitive quality of lands by removal of 
incompatible uses and improvements. 



Provide for development with planned future 
restoration as an alternative to wilderness 
designation. 

— Expand the National Wilderness Preservation Sys- 
tem to include water wilderness in our oceans and 
lakes and underground wilderness in caves. 

— Remove from the National Wilderness Preservation 
System those areas in which wilderness values are 
less than other critically needed resource values. 

Increase Capacity of Designated Wilderness 

~ Improve management and protection to reduce 
impacts on the resource and improve the quantity 
and quality of wilderness experiences. 

-- Provide wilderness visitors with information and 
training on "low-impact" camping and wilderness 
ethics so they will accept responsibility for 
maintaining wilderness values. 

— Conduct research to develop management systems 
that provide for sustained high levels of use, 
while maintaining the biophysical status of the 
wilderness environment. 

Redefine Standards 

— Provide for variable wilderness standards based 
on visitor expectation. 



— Through legislation, redefine the wilderness 
standards to provide new concepts in wilderness 
val ues. 

~ Divert nonwil derness uses such as competitive 
events and hang gliding away from designated 
wil dernesses. 

— Develop alternative facilities and access for 
heavy impact activities outside wildernesses. 

— Inform visitors of alternative activities and 
development in nonwil derness areas. 

Control Human Activities 

— Develop management techniques that will control 
visitor access to designated wildernesses. 

— Implement a wilderness fee for visitors. 

— Through carrying capacity determinations, limit 
wilderness visitors to ensure acceptable limits 
of human-caused change. 

Alternative Goals and Implications 

Alternative Goal 1 

MANAGE NATIONAL FOREST WILDERNESS FOR PUBLIC USE AND 
ENJOYMENT SO THAT THE WILDERNESS CHARACTER IS PRO- 
TECTED, NATURAL CONDITIONS PRESERVED, AND THE PUBLIC 
PURPOSES OF WILDERNESS ACHIEVED. PROPOSE SELECTED 

ADDITIONS TO THE NATIONAL WILDERNESS PRESERVATION 
SYSTEM. 



39 



Basis for Alternative Goal 1 



This goal responds to the mandate of the Wilderness 
Act of 1964 to protect and perpetuate wilderness 
values. To accomplish the wilderness management pro- 
gram and prevent degradation of the wilderness char- 
acter of designated areas, more intensive management 
techniques will need to be implemented. Human-caused 
impacts on what is supposed to be an unmodified envi- 
ronment will need correction in numerous areas. This 
goal envisions action by Congress to add to the 
National Wilderness Preservation System those suitable 
areas of National Forest System lands recommended by 
the Administration. 

Implications of Alternative Goal 1 

1. I nvestments . — This goal would require increased 
funding over current levels. A 15 — 20-percent expan- 
sion of National Forest System wilderness management 
programs and research efforts would be needed to retain 
the wilderness character of designated units. Restora- 
tion of areas within wilderness that have lost their 
primeval character or unmodified condition is the most 
significant cost factor along with costs associated 
with bringing new areas added to the National Wilder- 
ness Preservation System up to standard. 

2. Outputs . — Over the long term, the outputs related 
to wilderness purposes will increase under this goal as 
compared to either goals 2 or 3. Goal 1 will increase 
the quantity of outputs, in part, by adding areas to 
the System on which demands can be met. 



40 



Recreation visitor days use within wildernesses by 
1990 will be 14 million, an increase of 50 percent 
from current levels. 

3. Nonrenewable resources .— Goal 1 has the 
greatest potential to adversely effect utilization 
of energy and mineral resoi^ces because of the 
amount of land already in the System or proposed for 
addition and the restraints prescribed by law on 
removing these resources. 

4. Renewable resources . --This goal retains 
renewable resources in a natural condition to a 
greater extent than other goals because of the pro- 
posed additions to the System. It allows renewable 
resource utilization for commodity purposes to a 
lesser extent than the other goals. 

5. Community . — Economic stability, lifestyle, 
and other community conditions will be only slightly 
altered for designated wildernesses by any of the 
three goals. This goal tends to restrict, more so 
than the others, the opportunity to realize benefits 
from nonwilderness outputs. 

6. Employment and income . --This goal will 
result in less potential income and employment to 
those industries utilizing the commodity resources 
of the National Forests. Outfitter and guide busi- 
nesses and the recreation support industry could 
expect some added increase in income because of new 
areas added to the System. There will be a slight 
increase in recreation service industry employment 
because of intensified management and increased 
acreage under management. 



7. Le gislative consideration . — This goal requires 
action by Congress to enact into law the suitable areas 
for addition to the National Wilderness Preservation 
System proposed by the Administration. 

8. Technology . — Research will be undertaken to 
define wilderness character; develop social carrying 
capacity criteria; devise strategies relating to occur- 
rences such as fire, insects, and disease; measure the 
impacts of various visitor types; and study the effects 
of acid rain on wilderness quality. 

Alternative Goal 2 

MANAGE NATIONAL FOREST WILDERNESS FOR PUBLIC USE AND 
ENJOYMENT SO THAT THE WILDERNESS CHARACTER IS PRO- 
TECTED, NATURAL CONDITIONS PRESERVED, AND THE PUBLIC 
PURPOSES OF WILDERNESS ACHIEVED. MAINTAIN THE CURRENT 
ACRES OF NATIONAL FOREST SYSTEM LANDS IN THE NATIONAL 
WILDERNESS PRESERVATION SYSTEM WITH PROPOSALS FOR 
MINOR ADDITIONS AND DELETIONS WHERE NEEDED FOR PUBLIC 
PURPOSES. 

Basis for Alternative Goal 2 

This goal is equally as responsive as goal 1 to the 
Wilderness Act of 1964, but the intensity of applied 
wilderness management is lower. Fewer designated 
wilderness acres are anticipated with congressional 
action making only minor additions and deletions to 
the National Wilderness Preservation System as recom- 
mended by the Administration. Fewer wilderness visi- 
tors than goal 1 are anticipated since the System 
does not increase in size. Human impacts on the 



unmodified character of the wilderness will be 
treated with less intensity than goal 1. 

Implications of Alternative Goal 2 

1. I nvestments . — This goal would require 
increased funding over current levels, but a 
slightly 1 ower management level than goal 1. A 
10— 1 5-percent expansion of National Forest Sys- 
tem wilderness management programs and research 
efforts would be needed to meet this objective. 
Restoration of areas within wilderness that have 
lost their primeval character and provisions for 
wilderness use opportunities will be the most sig- 
nificant cost factors. 

2. Outputs . — Implementation of goal 2 will 
result in little change in the total size of the 
National Wilderness Preservation System on National 
Forests. It will produce an increase in wilderness 
outputs by using the current unmet capacity of the 
System and more intense management. 

Recreation visitor days use within wildernesses by 
1990 will be 12 million, an increase of 25 percent 
from current levels. 

3. Nonrenewable resources . --Goal 2 continues 
the current trend in utilizing energy and mineral 
resources. Because of the costs associated with 
protecting the wilderness character and public atti 
tudes toward mining or leasing in wilderness, utili 
zation of nonrenewable mineral resources will be 
both expensive and slow to develop. 



4. Renewable resources . --This goal retains natural 
conditions tor renewable resources on about the same 
number of acres as the present National Forest System 
wilderness. It also maintains the current levels of 
commodity use of renewable resources in wildernesses. 

5. Community . --Goal 2 will be viewed as a contin- 
uation of the current National Wilderness Preservation 
System. Economic stability, lifestyle, and other com- 
munity conditions are not significantly affected from 
current patterns. 

6. Employment and income .--Thi s goal should have 
no impact on the income of those industries servicing 
wilderness use. Commodity outputs would be slightly 
higher than under goal 1, with a corresponding increase 
in income and employment relating to those industries. 

7. Legislative consideration . — This goal requires 
no action By Congress except tor minor additions and 
deletions to the National Wilderness Preservation Sys- 
tem from time to time as proposed by the Administration. 

8. Technology . — In addition to activities listed 
for alternative goal 1, there would be a moderate 
increase in research to evaluate techniques for improv- 
ing below-standard conditions, to develop biophysical 
carrying capacity criteria, to develop monitoring tech- 
niques, and to devise procedures for anticipating 
potential conflicts. 

Alternative Goal 3 

MANAGE NATIONAL FOREST WILDERNESS FOR PUBLIC USE AND 
ENJOYMENT SO THAT THE WILDERNESS CHARACTER IS 



42 



PROTECTED, NATURAL CONDITIONS PRESERVED, AND THE 
PUBLIC PURPOSES OF WILDERNESS ACHIEVED. PROPOSE A 
REDUCTION OF THE ACRES OF NATIONAL FOREST SYSTEM 
LANDS IN THE NATIONAL WILDERNESS PRESERVATION SYS- 
TEM WHEN PORTIONS ARE FOUND BETTER SUITED FOR OTHER 
PUBLIC PURPOSES. 

Basis for Alternative Goal 3 

This goal would recognize an intensive wilderness 
management program being applied to a smaller Sys- 
tem than in goals 1 and 2. Where energy, mineral, 
or other public values warrant, the Administration 
would propose declassification of currently desig- 
nated wilderness. As in goal 1, greater management 
efforts would be implemented to retain the wilder- 
ness character of designated areas, while providing 
for visitor use and enjoyment opportunities. 

Implications of Alternative Goal 3 

1. I nvestments . — This goal would require 
increased funding over current levels. Although 
units of the National Wilderness Preservation System 
within the National Forests would be reduced, an 
expansion of wilderness use opportunities, while 
maintaining a satisfactory biophysical environment, 
will require intense application of wilderness man- 
agement techniques. This will increase expenditures 
for wilderness management. 

2. Outputs . — Goal 3, over the short term, will 
produce an increase in uses related to wilderness by 
using the current unmet capacity of the System and 
more intense management. Over the very long term. 



uses will be less than goals 1 and 2 because of the 
fewer designated areas and acres. 



Recreation visitor-days use within wildernesses by 
1990 will be 12 million, an increase of 25 percent 
from current levels. 

3. Nonrenewabl e resources . — The opportunity to 
utilize energy and mineral resources is increased 
under this goal. Acres currently designated would be 
proposed for declassification where mineral and energy 
values warrant. 

4. Renewable resources . --Thi s goal reduces the 
acres ot natural conditions for renewable resources 
reserved by wilderness classification as compared to 
goals 1 and 2. It permits increased renewable resource 
utilization for commodity purposes where commodity 
values are high relative to wilderness values. 

5. Community . --Economic stability, lifestyle, and 
other community conditions will be altered to a greater 
extent by this goal than either of the other two. 

This goal expands, more so than the others, the oppor- 
tunity to realize benefits from nonwil derness outputs. 

6. Employment and income . — This goal should result 
in increased income to those industries utilizing com- 
modity resources of the National Forests. Recreation 
service industries would probably have a slight reduc- 
tion. However, the amount would be insignificant in 
relation to industry totals. Recreation-based employ- 
ment may be slightly reduced. Employment in the commod- 
ity resource areas may increase in specific locations. 



7. Legi s 1 at i ve cons i derat i on . — This goal 
requires action by Congress to remove from the 
National Wilderness Preservation System those areas 
proposed by the Administration as better suited for 
other public purposes. 

8. Technology . — This would require some addi- 
tional research on techniques for identifying areas 
impacted by heavy use and on monitoring methods and 
threshold points for nondegradat ion of wilderness 
values. Research would also be conducted to deter- 
mine social effects of limited use and to encourage 
use in less impacted areas. 



43 



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44 



WILDLIFE AND FISH HABITAT 



Needs and Opportunities 
The Demand and Supply Outlook 

The Nation's expanding population is increasing its 
demands for commercial and recreational uses of wild- 
life and fish. The most significant increases are 
occurring in the Sunbelt and western States where 
population growth is most rapid. Given the opportu- 
nity for users to participate at an acceptable cost, 
within a decade there may be a 30-percent increase in 
wildlife observation with other representative uses 
changing in corresponding fashion: 

(% increase above 1980) 



Use 


1990 


2000 


2030 


Freshwater angl i ng 


18 


39 


90 


Waterfowl hunting 


19 


33 


69 


Big game hunting 


14 


25 


48 



Currently, approximately 180 vertebrate species in the 
United States are on the Federal list as actually or 
potentially in danger of extinction. Unless specific 
management strategies are implemented, the list will 
increase during the next 20-year period. The U.S. 
Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) reports that up 
to 2 million acres of fish and wildlife habitat will 
be lost annually between now and the year 2000. The 
implications for wildlife are serious: nearly half 
of the acreage of wetlands that once existed in the 
lower 48 States is gone, and 20 million of the 25 

million acres of hardwood bottomland along the lower 
Mississippi have been seriously impacted. This 



places a heavier responsibility on public lands that 
retain wildland qualities. Species such as salmon, 
steelhead, waterf^owl , and those dependent upon 
mature timber, wetlands, and riparian areas will 
continue to decline nationally as their special 
habitats become less available. 

For example, the importance of privately owned habi- 
tat is illustrated in the 13-State northeastern 
region. In 1975, a total of 67 percent of that 
region's wildlife and fish-oriented recreation 
occurred on private lands. Over 70 percent of the 
small game and over 50 percent of the big game hunt- 
ing also occurred on those lands. 

Social, Economic, and Environmental Effects 

Decline in existing habitat conditions has implica- 
tions, both in respect to losses that would be suf- 
fered by wildlife and fish users and in respect to 
losses of the Nation's wild heritage. 

The most serious measurable economic losses involve 
the half-billion dollar per year salmon processing 
industry in the Pacific Northwest and Alaska. Cur- 
rent demand expectations indicate that economic, 
cultural, and social demands for these fish will not 
be fully met. Legal and social confrontations and 
international fishing rights disputes will result. 
Salmon sport fishing will become a less satisfying 
recreational experience because of competing demands 
for these fish, even though anglers are willing to 
pay higher prices for such fishing. 



45 



In nearly every State, recreational tourism constitutes 
one of the top three industries. It offers stability 
to countless communities. As the quantity and quality 
of wildlife and fish habitat decline, rural communities 
dependent on consumptive and nonconsumpt i ve recreation 
expenditures for a major share of their economic activ- 
ity and employment will be adversely affected. How- 
ever, to the extent that other uses of the land provide 
new community benefits, this impact may be offset. 
Finally, as costs increase, high-quality recreation on 
nonpublic lands could soon be available only to the 
affluent. The price of hunting and fishing on private 
lands already exceeds the price many Americans are 
willing to pay. 

Resource Base 

Currently, all 1.7 billion acres of forest and range 
land and water resources within the United States, 
including the 190 million acres that make up the 
National Forest System, provide some form of wildlife 
habitat. The water resource on the National Forest 
System land base includes 128,000 miles of streams and 
2,209,000 acres of lakes and reservoirs. 

Opportunities vary for production of fish and wildlife 
from these lands and waters. Most lands are below 
their productive capability and can be improved. By 
applying habitat management and protection techniques, 
these lands can provide additional products and uses 
necessary to help meet the Nation's growing demands. 



46 



Opportunities 



There are significant opportunities to increase 
wildlife and fish populations on National Forest 
System and State and private lands. Progressive 
programs could maintain or increase supply to meet 
demands over the next 20-year period. 

Some specific actions are: 

— Increase fish and wildlife coordination with 
management of other resources, especially range 
and timber management, to increase productive 
habitat for fish and wildlife. 

~ Increase the number of direct habitat improve- 
ment projects. 

-- Increase the productivity of the best habitats 
for species in high demand by the public. 

— Acquire selected private lands within National 
Forest boundaries (especially wetlands and 
riparian habitat) to maintain habitat produc- 
tivity and increase recreational opportunities. 

— Introduce desired species to suitable unoccu- 
pied habitats. 

— Reintroduce species that have been displaced. 

— Through habitat management, remove species from 
the threatened or endangered species lists and 

prevent additional sensitive species from being 
1 isted. 



Control public use and access to sensitive habi- 
tats during specific times of the year such as 
reproductive periods and winter seasons. 

Determine ways to graze livestock and wildlife 
without undue competition or damage to riparian 
aquatic ecosystems. 

Emphasize wildlife and fish concerns in National 
Forest and State Forest Resource plans. 

Increase coordination with States and other public 
agencies involved in fish and wildlife management. 

Improve planning by involving fish and wildlife 
biologists. 

Increase technical and financial assistance to pri- 
vate landowners through State and Private Forestry 
programs. 

Encourage State and private organizations to invest 
in habitat management programs on NFS lands. 

Conduct needed wildlife and fish habitat surveys, 
compile biological data, and develop techniques to 
integrate wildlife and fish objectives into other 
resource programs. 

Provide assistance to States in managing wildlife 
populations, controlling harvests, and getting 
increased public benefits from wildlife popula- 
tions on National Forests. 



Alternative Goals and Implications 
Alternative Goal 1 

MAINTAIN AND IMPROVE WILDLIFE AND FISH HABITAT PRO- 
DUCTIVITY WITH PRIMARY EMPHASIS ON SELECTED SPECIES 
AND THREATENED AND ENDANGERED SPECIES IDENTIFIED IN 
STATE AND NATIONAL FOREST PLANNING PROCESSES. 

Basis for Alternative Goal 1 

This goal responds to the National Forest Management 
Act by providing management to maintain viable popu- 
lations of all existing native vertebrate species on 
National Forest lands, while maintaining and improv- 
ing habitats for species selected for emphasis in 
National Forest planning. It also relates to wild- 
life and fish direction in the habitat productivity 
goals established in National Forest plans. The 
habitat productivity goals are comparable with the 
goals established in the 1980 RPA Program. This 
goal includes moderate Federal investments in habi- 
tat improvement projects designed primarily for 
wildlife and fish. Increases in habitat productiv- 
ity would largely be through coordination or inte- 
gration with other resource programs. Only programs 
where direct benefits exceed costs would be under- 
taken. Activities will be consistent with program 
proposals in State Comprehensive Wildlife and Fish 
plans. 

Implications of Alternative Goal 1 

1. I nvestments .--This goal requires a moderate 
increase over the 1980 base year level in the 



47 



wildlife and fish investments oriented primarily to 
management of species selected for emphasis in State 
and National Forest plans. The level of wildlife and 
fisheries support to other resource uses would be sig- 
nificantly increased. There would also be increased 
expenditures for Research, State and Private Forestry 
cooperative programs, and direct habitat improvement 
programs for the selected species. 

2. Outputs . --Under this alternative goal, there 
would be a 25-percent increase in habitat productivity 
for selected species of fish and wildlife by 2000 and 
a 70-percent increase by 2030, which closely corre- 
sponds to the 1980 RPA wildlife and fish goal. Species 
selected would be those that were the focus of consid- 
erable local, statewide, or regional public issues; 
internal management concerns; or unique resource oppor- 
tunities. In general, this will result in greater 
emphasis on game species. Recovery needs for threat- 
ened and endangered species will be 50 percent complete 
by 2000 and 100 percent complete by 2030. Sensitive 
species, in which population viability is a concern, 
would be managed so they never require listing and pro- 
tection under the Endangered Species Act. By 1990, 
monitoring will be fully implemented to determine habi- 
tat capability levels for the selected species. 

Wildlife and fish expertise necessary for resource 
coordination will be available for all Forest Service 
programs. The increasing demand for fish and wildlife- 
related recreation, coupled with the increase in avail- 
ability, will result in a significant increase in this 
use on the National Forests. Wildlife and fish-related 
recreation use will increase proportionally to the 



48 



increase in habitat productivity and public demand 
for this use. 

3. Nonrenewable resources . — This goal will have 
little impact on the short- and long-term outputs of 
nonrenewable resources, primarily energy resources. 
The increased level of wildlife and fish expertise 
available would provide for the coexistence of non- 
renewable resource programs with a minimum of con- 
flict. Most energy-related activities are site 
intensive; therefore, seasonal or permanent coordi- 
nation will provide for wildlife and fish protec- 
tion, while also providing for energy development. 
Access for energy development will require careful 
management to meet the wildlife and fish needs under 
this goal. 

4. Renewable resources . --Implementation of this 
goal will significantly improve and increase wild 
life and fish coordination with other renewable 
resource programs. A significant share of meeting 
wildlife and fish habitat productivity needs is 
through coordination with other resources, primarily 
range and timber. While timber and livestock out- 
puts may be less than financially optimal under this 
goal, total resource outputs will probably increase 
as a result of better program balance. 

Timber coordination will be designed to provide the 
proper ratio of cover and forage, access management, 
and diversity of tree-age classes and species neces- 
sary to meet habitat productivity needs. Range 
coordination will emphasize management to maintain 
healthy riparian ecosystems, productive big game 



winter ranges, and protection of other key fish and 
wildlife habitats. 



5. Community . — Recreational and commercial use of 
fish and wildlife will increase. This will contribute 
significantly to the economy and stability of many local 
communities that have a high dependency on the consump- 
tive and nonconsumpt ive uses of fish and wildlife. Hab- 
itat for anadromous fish will be improved. This will 
enhance the commercial fishing industry and increase 
Native American utilization of this resource. Greater 
emphasis on providing wildlife and fish expertise through 
State and Private Forestry programs will improve habitat 
productivity on State and private lands, primarily in the 
East. 

6. Employment and income . --Increased investments for 
wildlife and fish oriented recreation will provide addi- 
tional employment related to tourism, guiding and outfit- 
ting, commercial fishing, and other related services. 

7. Technol ogy . — This goal provides technology to 
maintain or improve the productivity of wildlife and fish 
habitat with primary emphasis on selected species and 
threatened and endangered species. Techniques would be 
developed to maintain, improve, and monitor habitat pro- 
ductivity as would methods to evaluate land use impacts 
on wildlife and fish. 

8. Economic efficiency . — Under this goal, the wild- 
life and fish program will be evaluated on economic effi- 
ciency criteria to ensure that benefits exceed costs and 
proper levels of demand are met. Programs for threatened 
and endangered species will be evaluated to ensure that 
the least costly programs that accomplish protection and 



recovery needs are selected. Federal expenditures 
will increase immediately because of increased 
threatened and endangered species management, but 
Federal expenditures should decline as management 
activities result in fewer species requiring the 
protection of "designation as protected" species. 

Alternative Goal 2 

MAINTAIN AND IMPROVE WILDLIFE AND FISH HABITAT 
PRODUCTIVITY WITH PRIMARY EMPHASIS ON SPECIES 
DIVERSITY, TRADITIONAL DISTRIBUTION PATTERNS, AND 
THREATENED AND ENDANGERED SPECIES. 

Basis for Alternative Goal 2 

This goal emphasizes habitat management to promote 
a continuation of diverse, highly dispered habitats 
for a wide variety of fish and wildlife species, 
while also emphasizing certain selected species. 
The basis for this goal is in the U.S. Department 
of Agriculture wildlife and fish policy, which 
states "...the National Forests and Grasslands will 
be managed to provide and maintain diversity of 
plant and animal communities." This goal also cor- 
responds with direction resulting from the National 
Forest Management Act and places more emphasis on 
the needs of nongame fish and wildlife relative to 
goal 1. This is responsive to increasing public 
interest in nongame as reflected in passage of the 
Nongame Act in 1980. Attainment of the habitat pro- 
ductivity goals would be through a balanced program 
of habitat improvements designed primarily for fish 
and wildlife and through coordination with other 
resource programs. Activities would be consistent 



49 



with program proposals in State Comprehensive Wildlife 
and Fish plans. 

Implications of Alternative Goal 2 

1. Investments . --This goal requires slightly 
greater investments in wildlife and fish over the 1980 
base year level than in goal 1. Support to other 
resources would be significantly increased. There 
would also be increased expenditures for direct habi- 
tat improvements designed primarily to maintain or to 
enhance species variety. This represents a strategy 
to create highly diverse habitat dispersed throughout 
the National Forests to provide productive habitat 
for all species with emphasis on certain selected 
species reflecting public wants and needs. There 
would also be increased expenditures for Forest Ser- 
vice Research, as well as State and Private Forestry 
cooperative programs, primarily to provide habitats 
that maximize species diversity and emphasize threa- 
tened and endangered species and selected species. 

2. Outputs . — Under this alternative goal, there 
would be a 20-percent increase in habitat productivity 
for selected species by 2000 and an 80-percent increase 
by 2030. Species selected for emphasis under this goal 
would represent a wide array including game, furbearers, 
nongame, and waterfowl. Management emphasis on a variety 
of species would result in a more uniform degree of 
habitat diversity over all NFS lands. Recovery needs 
for threatened and endangered species will be 50 percent 
complete by 2000 and 100 percent complete by 2030. 
Populations of sensitive species would be maintained 
above viable levels, so they would not require protec- 
tion under the Endangered Species Act. There would be 



50 



a significant increase in nonconsumptive and con- 
sumptive wildlife and fish-oriented recreation. 

3. Nonrenewable resources. --The implications 
of this goal would be similar to those of goal 1. 
The increased level of wildlife and fish coordina- 
tion and comprehensive practices should minimize 
conflicts of this goal with energy related 
resources. 

4. Renewable resources . --There will be signi- 
ficant increase in wildlife and fish coordination 
with other resources, especially timber management. 
Such coordination will achieve a major portion of 
this goal. A high level of diversity and dispersal 
of tree-age classes and species would be maintained. 
This could result in the maintenace of old-growth 
timber beyond that which is necessary to maintain 
viable populations of old-growth dependent species 
and, therefore, would have an impact on potential 
timber yiel ds. Timber coordination will be designed 
primarily to provide a diversity of tree-age classes 
and species and proper i nterspersion of cover and 
food. Range coordination will emphasize maintenance 
of healthy riparian ecosystems and the protection of 
other key fish and wildlife habitats. 

5. Community . — This goal places emphasis on 
species diversity and, therefore, contributes most 
to communities where nonconsumptive wildlife and 
fish opportunities are greatest. However, consump- 
tive uses of fish and wildlife would also increase. 

6. Employment and income . — Opportunities for 
wildlife and fish-oriented recreation will increase 



and provide additional employment related to tourism, 
guiding and outfitting, commercial fishing, and other 

related services. 

7. Technology . --This goal provides technology to 
maintain and improve the productivity of wildlife and 
fish habitats with primary emphasis on species diver- 
sity and dispersal of habitat for selected species. 
It develops methods to increase habitat productivity 
and species diversity and to reduce or mitigate factors 
that alter or reduce current species distribution. 

8. Economic efficiency . — Under this alternative 
goal, evaluation would be similar to goal 1. It would 
be expected that program costs would be higher than 

goal 1 because of increased programs in habitat improve- 
ment for a wider variety of species. 

Alternative Goal 3 

INCREASE WILDLIFE AND FISH HABITAT PRODUCTIVITY TO 
RESPOND TO PUBLIC PREFERENCES AS SUPPORTED BY STATE 
PLANS AND PROGRAMS AND PROVIDE FOR THREATENED AND 
ENDANGERED SPECIES. 

Basis for Alternative Goal 3 

The basis of this goal is primarily the State compre- 
hensive plans developed between State Fish and Wild- 
life agencies and the Forest Service, as required by 
the Sikes Act (P.L. 93-452). These plans include habi- 
tat productivity goals for wildlife and fish necessary 
to meet anticipated public wants and needs. This goal 

is responsive to many of the public comments in the 
1980 RPA and the 1981 General Accounting Office 



recommendation that the Forest Service should give 
greater emphasis to conserving and managing wildlife 

and fish. This goal provides for the largest 
increases in habitat productivity with emphasis on 
species in public demand. Attainment of this goal 
would be through intensive coordination with other 
resources and a significant increase in projects 
designed primarily for wildlife and fish. Only pro- 
grams where direct benefits exceed costs would be 
undertaken. 

Implications of Alternative Goal 3 

1. Investments . — This would require the largest 
increase in wildlife and fish investments primarily 
oriented to full implementation of habitat capabil- 
ity goals reflecting public desires. State Compre- 
hensive Wildlife and Fish plans, which reflect 
public preferences for population levels of various 
wildlife and fish species, would be the basis for 
the wildlife and fish habitat program. These plans 
are developed cooperatively with the States and the 
Forest Service and reflect the results of public 
input from the States. They provide for cost-shar- 
ing of wildlife and fish programs amongst the States 
and Federal agencies. Emphasis would be on direct 
habitat improvement as well as coordination with 
other resources. There would be increased expendi- 
tures for Forest Service Research, State and Private 
Forestry cooperative programs, and State programs to 
realize full opportunities to increase the produc- 
tion of wildlife and fish. 

2. Outputs . — Habitat management programs to 
increase wildlife and fish populations to levels 



51 



indicated in the State Comprehensive Wildlife and Fish 
plans would be fully implemented by 1990. There would 
be a 50-percent increase in productive habitat for spe 
cies in public demand (such as anadromous fish, elk, 
mule deer, whitetail deer, and turkey) by 2000. The 
habitat conditions to support the wildlife and fish 
species and populations stated in the State Comprehen- 
sive Wildlife and Fish plans would be fully provided 
by 2030. Coordination with other resources would be 

emphasized; 100 percent of the wildlife and fish sup- 
port necessary for resource coordination would be 
provided by 1990. Recovery needs for threatened and 
endangered species would be fully met by 2030. All 
efforts required for management of sensitive species 
would be undertaken to prevent their listing as threat 
ened and endangered species. The increase in habitat 
productivity for species in high demand will signifi- 
cantly increase wildlife and fish use on National 
Forest System lands. 

3. Nonrenewable resources . — This goal could have 
some impact on the short- and long-term outputs of 
energy-related resources; however, potential impacts 
can be offset by increased levels of coordination. 
Improved access and wildlife disturbance related to 
energy development would be a major concern; however, 
those impacts could be mitigated by seasonal restric- 
tions or road closures. 

4. Renewable resources . — Attainment of this goal 
requires considerable coordination with other 
resources, especially timber and range. Timber manage 
ment practices will have to be designed to provide 
desirable interspersion of cover- forage ratios, tree- 
age classes and species diversity, and proper 



52 



management of public access. This goal will require 
livestock management programs that promote healthy 
riparian ecosystems, ample forage on big game winter 
ranges and protection of other key fish and wildlife 
habitats. Under this goal, timber and livestock 
outputs may be less than the potential; however, it 
would probably yield greater total resource outputs 
as a result of a more balanced program. 

5. Community. — Recreational and commercial use 
of fish and wildlife would increase. This will con- 
tribute significantly to the economy and stability 
of many local communities that have a high depend- 
ency on the fish and wildlife resource, especially 
for consumptive purposes. Habitat capability for 
anadromous fish would be improved and significantly 
contribute to the commercial fish industry and 
Native American utilization. Emphasis on providing 
additional wildlife and fish expertise through State 
and Private Forestry cooperative programs will 
improve habitat productivity on State and private 
lands. This alternative goal would also provide for 
close relations with State fish and game departments 
since comprehensive plans developed jointly with the 
States would provide the basis for public prefer- 
ences for species and population goals. 

6. Employment and income . — This goal would 
generate a significant increase in wildlife and 
fish-oriented recreation. Associated employment 
and income would also increase. Increasing habitat 
capability for species in demand will contribute to 
employment opportunities for tourism, guiding and 
outfitting, commercial fishing and other related 
services. 



7. Technology . --This alternative goal develops 
technology to provide wildlife and fish habitats for 
species in public demand. 

8. Economic efficiency . — Under this alternative 
goal, evaluation would be similar to Goals 1 and 2. 
The emphasis would be on producing to satisfy State 
levels levels of demand, providing benefits exceed 
costs. This is the highest cost program. Joint 
planning, financing, and implementation is shared by 
Federal and State agencies. 



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MINERALS AND ENERGY DEVELOPMENT 



Needs and Opportunities 
The Demand and Supply Outlook 

This opportunity area addresses nonrenewable mineral 
and energy resources such as oil, gas, and coal. 
Renewable energy resources are discussed in their 
appropriate section: biomass in Range Productivity 
and Timber Supply, and hydropower in Water Yield and 
Qual ity. 

Mineral and energy resources are basic raw materials 
of United States industry. They are important to 
the Nation's economy, security, and standard of living. 
Supplies of some important minerals and energy mate- 
rials are increasingly difficult to obtain. A large 
share of our supplies of energy and strategic minerals 
is produced in other countries, and import dependency 
is increasing. Availability depends on the inter- 
national political climate and world trade situation. 

Despite the lack of reserves for a number of minerals, 
the Nation's resource base is generally extensive. 
Considerable untapped mineral and energy resources 
underlie National Forest System (NFS) lands. In many 
instances, these resources are in remote areas where 
development has been impeded by land status, difficult 
terrain, and climatic conditions. Today, growing de- 
mands and higher mineral and energy prices make mining 
in remote areas more attractive. 

The Forest Service can help ease our expanding depend- 
ence on foreign mineral supplies by promoting and 
facilitating mineral and energy development on the 
190-mil lion-acre National Forest System. The Forest 



56 



Service also has management responsibility for the 
minerals and, in some cases, the surface resources 
on about 10,000 acres of lands that are outside 
the NFS boundary. These are lands where the 
mineral rights are federally owned and the Forest 
Service, as the adjacent land management agency, 
has administrative responsibility. 

Substitution efforts for critical minerals are 
beneficial, but because of the long lead time for 
development of acceptable substitutes, they yield 
limited near-term benefits. 

Conservation, through reduced use, is difficult to 
achieve and takes considerable time. Demand for 
mineral commodities is not very responsive to price 
changes. Also, because mineral processing and re- 
lated technologies are capital intensive, it takes 
relatively long periods of high prices to prompt 
the development and application of new, conserva- 
tion-oriented technologies. New technology and 
recycling efforts can ease dependence on imports 
and possibly reduce certain environmental impacts. 

Social, Economic, and Environmental Effects 

The United States economy, security, and standard 
of living are sensitive to the availability and 
price of mineral and energy materials. Consumers 
pay higher prices when minerals and energy must be 
imported and often at prices set by groups control- 
ling the international market. Our industrial pro- 
duction and national security depend on imports of 
certain minerals and would be seriously impaired if 
supplies were cut off for as few as 3 months. 



However, industry has increased prospecting, explora- 
tion, and development efforts for energy and critical 
minerals on NFS lands, despite the high costs and 
risks of these ventures. New and expanded energy and 
mineral developments will have noticeable social and 
environmental effects. New operations will increase 
local tax bases and employment opportunities. How- 
ever, local facilities and services, including housing, 
schools, utilities, roads and social services may be 
unable to meet the growing demands of an expanding 
population. Existing rural populations will experience 
social and economic changes and some alteration of 
their physical environment. Although mining is not 
generally land extensive, local facilities and ser- 
vices and reclamation needs must be carefully planned 
and then monitored as development proceeds. 

Mineral exploration and development within certain 
designated areas (for example, wilderness, wilder- 
ness study areas, wild and scenic rivers, and 
national recreation areas) are sensitive social and 
environmental issues. Favorable and adverse impacts 
must be identified and carefully evaluated to deter- 
mine the effects on all environmental systems. From 
these determinations, acceptable alternatives will be 
select ed. 

The Forest Service, the management agency for min- 
eral resources on NFS lands, facilitates the develop- 
ment of mineral resources by responding to requests 
for approval of lease applications for leasable min- 
erals (oil, gas, coal, phosphate, and others); oper- 
ating plans for all minerals; and related special -use 
permits for roads, rights-of-way, and similar uses of 
NFS lands. The Forest Service manages the development 



of locatable minerals pursuant to the Mining 
Law of 1872, as amended; requires operators to 
adhere to Forest Service approved operating plans; 
and promotes the use of common variety minerals 
(sand, gravel, and stone) from NFS lands through 
negotiated and advertised competitive sales. The 
Forest Service ensures reclamation of disturbed 
areas, through stipulations and administration of 
mineral development on NFS lands, to serve other 
resource needs in the future. Prudent administra- 
tion of mineral development on NFS lands requires 
Forest Service readiness to respond to leasing, 
permitting, and other needs. 

Predicted increases in minerals production from 
private lands present an increased need for 
reclamation of disturbed lands. The Forest Ser- 
vice provides technical assistance, through State 
forestry or natural resource organizations, in the 
reclamation of private surface-mined areas through 
revegetation and reforestation. 

Resource Base 

Although some domestic mineral resources are 
limited, there are geologic indications that others 
occur in abundance. The United States may have the 
resources to supply an increasing amount of its 
overall energy and mineral needs for many years. 
The Forest Service plays a key role in promoting 
and facilitating industrial exploration and devel- 
opment of these resources on NFS lands. 



57 



NFS lands and other lands managed by the Forest Ser- 
vice are believed to contain considerable mineral 
resources. Fifty billion tons of coal underlie 
approximately 6.5 million acres. This coal resource 
could sustain our domestic needs for over 70 years 
based on 1980 domestic coal consumption levels. About 
45 million acres, particularly in the Western and 
Eastern Overthrust Belts, have potential for oil and 
gas. Some 300,000 acres have oil shale potential. 
Idaho has significant cobalt mineralization. Other 
areas contain geothermal energy sources, copper, 
molybdenum, uranium, cobalt, chromium, platinum-group 
metals, barium, and lead. There is also potential for 
production of fluorine, tin, nickel, gold, tungsten, 
and antimony on these lands. 

Opportunities 

Minerals and energy production from public lands could 
be increased, while providing environmental safeguards. 
Such efforts would support the President's programs to 
improve the balance of payments and the Nation s stra- 
tegic minerals and energy self-sufficiency. Opportu- 
nities for Forest Service action include: 

— Identifying access opportunities to mineral and 
energy resources. 

— Accelerating response time on all mineral leas- 
ing and permit requests. 

— Responding positively to Department of Energy 
coal production targets. 



58 



— Planning and monitoring mineral and energy 
activities to promote prudent development and 
reclamation of disturbed areas. 

Keeping mineral exploration and development 
options open on all public lands. 

— Working with mineral and energy companies to 
develop plans to aid present and future 
devel opment. 

— Improving program efficiency through use of pre- 
diction techniques that indicate probable mineral 
devel opment s. 

— Providing technical assistance on revegetation 
and reforestation of privately owned lands that 
have been disturbed by mineral production. 

Alternative Goals and Implications 

Alternative Goal 1 

EXPAND MINERAL RESOURCE DEVELOPMENT ON NATIONAL FOR- 
EST SYSTEM LAND, WHILE EMPHASIZING STRATEGIC AND 
ENERGY MINERALS TO REDUCE IMPORTS, IN CONCERT WITH 
OTHER RESOURCE VALUES. IDENTIFY LANDS HAVING HIGH 
STRATEGIC AND ENERGY MINERAL POTENTIAL AND TAKE 
ACTION TO OPEN OR MAINTAIN ACCESS TO THESE 
RESOURCES. 

Basis for Alternative Goal 1 

This goal responds to the President's programs to 
improve the balance of payments and the Nation's 



strategic mineral and energy self-sufficiency. The 
President has urged that steps be taken to assure 
reasonable access to the country's mineral resources 
and to facilitate development of these resources 
through expedient processing of required permits and 
applications. Although this goal would require 
increased program expenditures in the near term, future 
benefits would exceed the added costs by a significant 
margin. Minimum legal standards for environmental 
protection would be met or exceeded under this goal. 
Some previous land withdrawals would be reviewed to 
determine if existing mineral potentials justify 
declassification to support national objectives. 

Ifjipl ications of Alternative Goal 1 

1. Investments . — Achieving this goal would 
require increased funding of NFS minerals and geology 
programs and the prompt processing of existing backlogs 
of lease and permit applications and of all new appli- 
cations. The existence of backlogs implies that 
applications are not processed as quickly as new 
ones are received. Applicants must delay explora- 
tion, development, or other act ivivi ties until the 
Forest Service approves the various applications. 
These delays frequently have significant financial 
implications for the applicants. The costs of idle 
equipment and lost loan commitments must be added to 
the total costs of the proposed projects. Although 
no estimates are available of the total cost of such 
delays, they have forced some projects to be delayed 
indefinitely. 

During 1981, an estimated 19,000 applications were pro- 
cessed and about 11,300 remained in backlog at the end 



of the year, or 4,000 more than at the end of 1980. 
About 23,000 new applications were received during 
1981. Current program objectives are to reduce the 
backlog to a manageable level within the next few 
years. 

Increased investment levels would be needed to 
facilitate processing of new lease and permit 
applications and operating plans — which have in- 
creased dramatically in recent years and are 
expected to continue to i ncrease--rapidly at first 
and more slowly in the future. A large share of 
the anticipated work load would be permitting, 
administering, and monitoring development and 
reclamation activities. 

2. Outputs . — Under this goal, energy mineral 
outputs from NFS lands are expected to be approxi- 
mately: 



Oil (mil. bbl.) 

Gas (bil. cf.) 

Coal (mil . ST) 
(short ton) 



1980 1990 
(Actual ) 

12 

222 

6 45-50 



2035 



55-60 



105-110 135-140 
1,000-1,100 1,300-1,400 



In FY 1980, production of leasable minerals, pri- 
marily oil, gas, and coal, from NFS lands resulted 
in about $75 million being returned to the U.S. 
Treasury. 



59 



Outputs of common variety minerals under this goal 
are estimated as follows in millions of tons: 

1980 1990 2035 

Minerals — common variety 13 9-11 10-12 

Commercial -- sand, gravel, stone 9 10-15 15-20 

In FY 1980, production of common variety minerals 
resulted in about $12 million being returned to the 
U.S. Treasury. 

The constant dollar value of locatable minerals pro- 
duced on NFS lands would increase because of stream- 
lined, more efficient management and administration 
of requests for approval of operating plans and 
special permits. Exploration and development of 
underground space (including natural caves and 
underground reservoirs) on NFS lands will be 
facil itated. 

3. Prices . — Mineral and energy prices are 
expected to rise. However, increased domestic pro- 
duction of minerals should act to moderate price 
increases and, in some cases, dampen price fluct- 
uations caused by the uncertainties or interruptions 
of foreign supplies. The same may be true for energy 
production, but with less certainty due to price con- 
trol exercised by the Organization of Petroleum 
Exporting Countries (OPEC). It is generally true 
that price stability increases as domestic self-suf- 
ficiency increases. 



60 



The anticipated price moderation would be the re- 
sult of reduced import dependence and improved 
supply reliability. Mineral processing industries 
and Government, the consumers in this case, may 
save several billion dollars for each percentage- 
point moderation in prices. If domestic production 
increases act to temper energy and mineral prices 
by only 2 percent, the cost savings to consumers 
would be at least $8 billion per year , based on cur- 
rent prices and consumption levels. 

4. Nonrenewable resources . — This goal would 
enable development of some of the country's sizeable 
mineral reserves. Although each mineral and energy 
commodity is unique in some respect, the U.S. 
mineral resource base is extensive and capable of 
supplying many needs through and beyond 2030. Even- 
tually, technological changes, substitution, and 
conservation would work together to offset the 
impacts of rising cost due to declining ore grades. 

Most of the petroleum development is expected to 
occur in the Eastern and Western Overthrust Belt 
areas. New investment, production, community expan- 
sion, employment, and processing facilities are 
expected in these areas. These changes will occur 
during the 1980 's and 1990 's. Beyond the year 
2000, the growth in new development may occur more 
slowly and result in less pressure on social, 
environmental, and economic systems. 

5. Renewable resources . — Development of 
minerals and energy would to some degree interrupt 
use of renewable resources within development 
areas. However, good long-term planning, along with 



required operating and reclamation plans, could provide 
opportunities for management of the renewable resources 
and access to them. 

This goal would increase environmental impacts on 
lands where mining and mineral processing operations 
take place. However, mining is land intensive, as 
opposed to land extensive, and disturbs a relatively 
small total land base. Historically, surface mining 
activities have disturbed less than 0.10 percent of the 
total land area in the United States. This goal pro- 
vides for protection of surface and renewable resources 
by requiring reclamation of mined lands within accept- 
able environmental and economic bounds. 

Other resource values and long-term management objec- 
tives would be safeguarded by administration of exist- 
ing laws and mining regulations. 

6. Community, employment, and income .— This goal 
would increase employment and income related to mining, 
processing, and transportation in many relatively 
remote areas. Significant economic and social effects 
would probably occur at the same time that local facil- 
ities and services were expanded to meet demand. 
Mineral processing industries would also expand. 
Associated industries, including machinery and equip- 
ment manfacturers, would benefit through increased 
demand for their products. 

7. International trade. — U.S. import dependence 
would be reduced, but not eliminated. This would have 
favorable effects on domestic energy and mineral- 
related industries in terms of production and employ- 
ment levels and supply reliability. To the extent 



domestic production acts to moderate world prices, 
other importing countries will benefit. At the same 
time, exporters would have less price leverage. 

8. Technol ogy . — Implementation of this goal 
would spur research on the biological, physical, 
social, and economic impacts of mineral and energy 
development. Other studies would consider recla- 
mation technologies and predictions of the timing 
of likely mineral and energy developments. 

9. L egi s 1 at i ve . - -Ach i ev i ng this goal would 
require the initiation of at least two legislative 
changes. First, lands identified as having high 
strategic and energy mineral potential would be 
declassified from existing wilderness and other 
classified areas. This would be approached on a 
case-by-case basis to facilitate development of 
strategic and energy minerals to serve identified 
national needs. Second, efforts would be made to 
extend the current 1983 cutoff date for leasing 
and prospecting in wilderness areas so that explor- 
ation can continue. 

10. Economi c ef f i ci ency . --Ach i evi ng this goal 
would require a higher level of Government expendi- 
tures. However, returns to the Government from 
lease rental fees and mineral royalties would 
increase. Although precise estimates do not exist, 
increased returns to the Government would exceed 
any needed increases in program funding to achieve 
this goal . 



61 



Alternative Goal 2 



RESPOND TO PROPOSALS FOR MINERAL DEVELOPMENT ON 
NATIONAL FOREST SYSTEM LANDS, IN CONCERT WITH OTHER 
RESOURCE VALUES. GIVE EMPHASIS TO STRATEGIC AND 
ENERGY MINERALS. 

Basis for Alternative Goal 2 

This goal would strive to be responsive to mineral 
developments on NFS lands, but the Forest Service 
would not initiate actions to assure access to 
mineralized lands. Responsiveness to strategic and 
energy mineral activities would be emphasized and 
would support the President's program to improve the 
balance of payments and the Nation's strategic min- 
eral and energy self-sufficiency. Minimum legal 
standards for environmental protection would be met 
or exceeded. To maintain reasonable response times 
to requests for approval of permits and applications 
would require some increase in program expenditures. 
However, returns to the Government would continue to 
exceed program costs. 

Imolications of Alternative Goal 2 

The implications of this goal are basically the same as 
those described in alternative goal 1. However, in 
some cases, they would differ in degree because of the 
lower level of mineral production. That is, somewhat 
less moderation of prices and consumer costs would be 
expected for mineral and energy commodities; import 
reliance would not be reduced by as much; and environ- 
mental, employment, and income impacts would be some- 
what less evident. Implications for investments. 



62 



minerals processing industries, research activities, 
and nonrenewable resources would be approximately 
the same as for alternative goal 1. Gains in econo- 
mic efficiency would occur because additional oppor- 
tunities where benefits exceed expenditures would be 
captured, but at a somewhat lower level than for 
goal 1. 

Yearly outputs for energy minerals under this goal 
would be: 

1980 1990 2035 

(Actual ) 

Oil (mil. bbls.) 12 97-102 125-130 

Gas (bil. cf) 222 900-950 1,200-1,300 

Coal (mil. ST) 6 40-45 50-55 

Yearly outputs for common variety minerals from NFS 
lands would be approximately as follows in million 
of tons: 

1980 1990 2035 
Mineral s--common variety 13 10-12 11-13 

Commercial --sand , gravel, stone 9 15-20 20-25 
Alternative Goal 3 

RESPOND TO PROPOSALS FOR MINERAL DEVELOPMENT ON 
NATIONAL FOREST SYSTEM LANDS, IN CONCERT WITH OTHER 
RESOURCE VALUES. GIVE EMPHASIS TO STRATEGIC AND 



ENERGY MINERALS. RESTRICT MINERAL DEVELOPMENT ON 
LAND WHERE OTHER RESOURCE VALUES ARE HIGH AND MINERAL 
VALUES APPEAR LOW. 



Basis for Alternative Goal 3 

This goal is intended to respond to mineral develop- 
ment only to the extent required under existing laws 
and to respond to pressing national needs for strate- 
gic and energy minerals. Where possible, marginal 
mineral developments, in terms of competing resource 
values or acceptable environmental impacts, would be 
restricted. Although returns to the Government would 
exceed program costs, the goal is only minimally re- 
sponsive to Presidential directions. However, the 
goal would result in fewer environmental impacts 
because marginally acceptable developments would be 
restricted. 

Implications of Alternative Goal 3: 

The implications of this goal differ primarily in 
degree from those described for alternative goals 1 
and 2. Development of nonenergy and nonstrategic 
minerals would be restricted by withdrawals and other 
authorities, particularly where values of other 
resources (for example, scenic, historic, wildlife, 
timber,) are nearly comparable to the mineral values 
and where the various impacts of mineral development 
would be only marginally acceptable. Moderation of 
prices and consumer costs would be less than for goals 
1 and 2. Import reliance for most commodities would 
be reduced very little. Environmental, employment, 

and income impacts would be lower, but more geograph- 
ically concentrated. This goal would afford 



little or no potential for increased economic effi- 
ciency. Implications for investments, minerals 
processing industries, research, and nonrenewable 
resources would be only slightly different from 
those for goals 1 and 2. 



Yearly outputs for energy and minerals under alter- 
native goal 3 would be approximately as follows: 









1980 
(Actual ) 


1990 


2035 


Oil 


(mil . 


bbls.) 


12 


90-95 


120-125 


Gas 


(bil. 


cf) 


222 


850-900 


1,100-1,200 


Coal 


(mil 


. ST) 


6 


35-40 


45-50 



Yearly outputs for common variety minerals from NFS 
lands are estimated as follows, for alternative 
goal 3, in million of tons: 



1980 1990 2035 
Mineral s--common variety 13 11-13 12-14 

Commercial --sand , gravel, stone 9 20-25 25-30 



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65 



k.1 



WATER YIELD AND QUALITY 



Needs and Opportunities 
The Demand and Supply Outlook 

While the United States has an abundant supply of 
water, its distribution varies greatly across the 
Nation. In many areas, the demand for water vastly 
exceeds supply, and an inadequate water supply is 
already a limiting factor in resource development 
and economic growth. Water supply projections show 
the situation becoming worse. 

By the year 2000, persons living in 17 major river 
basins in 11 States in the Southwest and Midwest and 
in localized areas in the Northwest and East will 
suffer serious water supply problems. The Second 
National Water Assessment has projected that average 
streamflow in these river basins will be 70 percent 
depleted by the year 2000. An estimated 38 river 
basins in 19 States, including States on both 
coasts and in Puerto Rico, are already experiencing 
reductions of ground water. Projected demands for 
water will be acute in the more arid sections of the 
Nation, reflecting competition for available supplies 
among agriculture, energy development, and municipal 
and industrial use. Demands for water for noncon- 
sumptive purposes related to wildlife and fish 
resources, hydroelectric development, recreation, 
navigation, and maintenance of wetlands will also 
increase. New capital investments, maintenance of 
existing investments, and technological developments 
will be needed to avoid further aggravation of water 
shortages. 



66 



The total average annual water yield from forest 
and range lands in the contiguous 48 States is 
estimated to be about 1.3 billion acre- feet. Pre- 
liminary estimates of the potential for increasing 
this yield through vegetation and snow management 
techniques range from 1 million to 4 million acre- 
feet per year. This estimate reflects multiple- 
use considerations. Opportunities for increased 
water yield from National Forest lands in water- 
short areas will be defined in the National Forest 
planning process currently underway. 

There are several factors that cloud the ground 
water supply picture, including the following: (1) 
there is a general lack of State regulatory control 
over ground-water management; (2) there is a dearth 
of information on National Forest lands (and most 
Federal lands) about the extent to which ground 
water is necessary for maintenance of surface 
ecosystems; and (3) there is no established metho- 
dology by which such needed ground water data can 
be quantified. 

The natural quality of surface and subsurface 
water also varies considerably across the Nation. 
In addition, it varies from place to place and from 
time to time on any particular stream, depending 
largely upon the nature of the watershed and the 
occurrence of storms. Pollution is found at one 
time or another in surface and subsurface waters 
of all States. Water pollution from point sources, 
such as a discharge from a pipe, has been recognized 
as a problem in 91 percent of the 246 hydrologic 
basins in the United States. Nonpoint source pollu- 
tion, such as runoff from a rural area, occurs in 



87 percent of the basins. Dispersed agricultural 
sources, municipal and industrial wastes, acid 
mine drainage, and accelerated urban runoff are the 
most significant causes. Acid rain also affects 
water quality, particularly in the Northeast and 
Great Lake States. By volume, sediment is the number 
one pollutant. Erosion from croplands contributes 
about half of the total sediment to streams from 
nonpoint sources, but mining, construction, logging, 
and reforestation practices are also significant 
sources in some areas during, and for several years 
after, the activity. 

Water quality needs vary depending on use. Demand 
to maintain or improve water quality to allow for a 
greater variety of uses is expected to increase. 

About 175 million acres of land scattered throughout 
the Nation are flood prone. Twenty-one thousand 
communities are subject to some degree of flooding. 
Demand for better control of runoff from flood source 
areas and for reduction of flood hazards downstream 
will increase as property values rise and improve- 
ments are installed in flood prone areas. 

Social, Economic, and Environmental Effects 

Competition for available water supplies, the cost to 
consumers, and impacts on the water resource are 
increasing, especially in water-short regions. In 
many cases, these increases reflect the demand for 
large volumes of water needed to produce energy. 
Water needed for consumptive use for energy develop- 
ment and the urban expansion that accompanies it 



will be diverted from long established agricul- 
tural use and will change on-site characteristics. 

Proposals for new reservoirs, canals, and pipelines 
will raise questions concerning the equitable 
distribution of available supplies. The needs of 
municipalities and energy producers will con- 
flict sharply with those of agriculture, wildlife, 
and recreation. The conflicts between municipal, 
industrial, and agricultural use and need will 
alter land use patterns, the cost of living, and 
the lifestyle of Americans. 

Disposal of organic, inorganic, and thermal wastes 
will affect the quality of water from all sources 
and continue to be a public concern. Problems 
associated with salinity are increasing and of 
serious public concern in such locations as the 
lower Colorado River Basin and parts of California. 

In 1975, 107 people were drowned nationwide by flood 

waters and property damage was estimated at $3.4 

billion. By the year 2000, flood damage is expected 
to increase to $4.3 billion annually. 

Resource Base 

The United States contains 736 million acres of 
forest land. About 286 million acres are in Federal 
ownership and 451 million acres are in State and 
private ownership. These forested lands produce 
about 65 percent of the Nation's total streamflow. 
On the average, they yield about 17 inches of run- 
off compared to 4 inches from nonforested lands 
because of their location in areas of higher 



67 



precipitation. In addition to being the source of 
water for most perennial streams, forests are impor- 
tant recharge areas for ground water systems, 
including aguifers. Water, as one of the renewable 
resources, is also extremely valuable for its hydro- 
power potential . 

The 820 million acres classified as rangeland are also 
important watersheds. Though these lands receive 
less precipitation than forests and contribute less 
runoff, they include vegetative types that lend them- 
selves to water resource improvement programs. 

Although most forest and range lands produce water of 
high quality, they can be significant sources of non- 
point pollution in some local situations. Use and 
treatment of the land has a direct bearing on the qual- 
ity of water it produces. 

Over a third of the total forest and range land, 600 
million acres, would benefit from watershed improve- 
ment practices. Specific treatments would depend 
upon the benefits desired: yield improvement, quality 
improvement, or flood prevention. 

Opportunities 

Forest and range lands can simultaneously produce 
increased supplies of high quality water and timber, 
forage, wildlife, and opportunities for outdoor rec- 
reation. The relationship between water quality and 
yield and competitive or complementary resource uses 
and values must be evaluated on a case-by-case basis. 
There are some situations where effective management 
strategies can increase yields of high quality water. 



68 



while protecting the basic resource. Opportu- 
nities to apply these strategies exist on lands 
in State and private ownership as well as on 
Federal holdings. 

Forest Service opportunities for improving water 
yields would include low investment costs and would 
not require new capital investments. Most opportu- 
nities would deal with vegetative manipulation dur- 
ing ongoing management activities, and costs would 
be offset by associated benefits such as increased 
range production and timber values and decreased 
cost of fire protection. 

In the list below, major opportunities for Forest 
Service programs are indicated by an asterisk, *: 

Water quality can be improved by: 

* — Applying watershed improvement practices on 
disturbed watersheds. 

* — Implementing management practices designed to 
reduce erosion and maintain or improve site 
product ivity. 

* — Reducing nonpoint water pollution from forest 
and range lands through applications of im- 
proved fire protection, engineering, and land 
management technology. 

* — Acquiring deteriorating privately owned water- 
shed areas and restoration of the land to 
natural and productive conditions. 



Water yield can be increased by: 

— Weather modification (cloud seeding). 

*-- Vegetative manipulation to reduce evapotrans- 
pi ration and to influence the distribution and 
melting of snow where applicable. Timber har- 
vest, brush control, and range improvement pro- 
jects are examples. 

Flood damage can be reduced by: 

— Proper siting of improvements away from flood- 
plains. 

* — Managing vegetative cover to reduce volume and 
peaks of streamflow and the threat of large 
fires. 

* — Installing structures to regulate the release 
of flood flows. 

— Discouraging disaster aid and insurance for 
structures constructed in floodplains. 

Extension of existing water supplies can be achieved by 

— Greater reuse of water. 
Water conservation. 

*— Recognizing and protecting aquifer recharge sites 

* — Water spreading practices during periods of high 
water runoff and greater use of ground reservoir 



storage and high altitude surface storage to 
reduce evaporation losses and to regulate flow. 

— Revision of the current legal structure for 
allocating and pricing water. 

Research can be conducted to develop new methods 
for water management and to develop additional ways 
to conserve water. This would include development 
of methodology for quantifying ground-water needs 
for adequate surface and subsurface water 
interaction. 

New demonstration areas can be provided to inform 
landowners and managers of management strategies 
that have demonstrated the capability to increase 
yields of high-quality water while protecting the 
basic resource. 

Technical assistance can be provided concerning the 
management of municipal watersheds for multiple re- 
source benefits. 

Effective water management programs require invest- 
ment and commitment by all landowners and users. In 
some cases, entire watersheds need treatments to be 
most cost effective. Private landowners will need 
technical and financial assistance to carry out 
water management programs. States and the Federal 
Government must cooperate closely on resolution of 
ground water-related problems. 

Watershed management programs that are implemented 
must be evaluated by monitoring a program to deter- 
mine if established goals and targets are being 



69 



achieved and to provide information on needed pro- 
gram modifications. 



Alternative Goals and Implications 
Alternative Goal 1 

MANAGE FOREST AND RANGE LAND RESOURCES TO MAINTAIN 
CURRENT WATER YIELD, MEET WATER QUALITY REQUIREMENTS, 
AND PREVENT INCREASED FLOOD HAZARDS. 

Basis for Alternative Goal 1 

This goal responds to the basic charge specified in 
the Organic Administration Act, the Weeks Act, and the 
Multiple Use-Sustained Yield Act to maintain favorable 
conditions of waterflows from the National Forest Sys- 
tem. It also responds to congressional direction under 
the Clean Water Act and the Cooperative Forestry Assis- 
tance Act to protect the quality, quantity, and timing 
of water yields from all forested lands. This goal 
represents the minimal program level needed to meet 
legally mandated water quality management. Water yield 
improvement and reduction in flood hazard would be 
incidental to other management practices. This level 
of management would not capture all economic opportuni- 
ties. 

Implications of Alternative Goal 1 

1. I nvestments . — Achievement of alternative goal 1 
would be the least costly of the alternatives presented. 

Activities would be limited to those needed to protect 
the public and its property and to provide a minimum 
level of research and technical assistance to the 



70 



States. The Forest Service will utilize and parti- 
cipate in P.L.-566, P.L.-534, and Rural Community 

and Development (RC&D) programs. 

2. Economic efficiency . — This goal would not 
capture all economic opportunities available to the 
Forest Service on National Forest lands to increase 
water yields and water quality or prevent damage 
from flooding. Similarly, only limited support 
would be provided to State and private efforts to 
capture such opportunities. 

3. Outputs. — Water from National Forest lands 
would meet established quality standards, and soils 
and water resource improvement projects would be 
concentrated on watersheds with declining condi- 
tions that adversely affect water quality. 
Research, technical assistance to the States, and 
NFS programs would utilize existing technology to 
provide for the development and application of 
management practices to protect water quality. 
Current water yield conditions and flood source 
areas would remain relatively unchanged. Outputs 
of other forest and range commodities would be pro- 
duced at somewhat higher levels on the treated 
watersheds. 

4. Prices . — Prices of goods and services from 
forest and range lands would not be significantly 
affected by activities undertaken to meet this goal. 

5. Nonrenewable resources . — This goal would 
maintain basic soil stability and productivity. 

6. Renewable resources . — Under this alternative 
goal, water yield and quality would be maintained 



and there would be no reduction of flood potential or 
hazards. 



7. Community . — Soil and water improvements and 
management practices applied to control water pollu- 
tion would benefit many communities. However, this 
goal would not address the problems of communities 
facing water shortages or loss of life and property 
due to fl oods. 

8. Employment and income . — Employment and income 
would be favorably affected, but these effects would 
be the lowest under this alternative goal. 

9. Technology . — Research under this goal would 
focus on watershed protection, improved road building, 
economies of water yield enhancement, and effects of 
management practices on soils and water quality and 
quantity. Studies would also be undertaken on the 
impacts of acid rain on forests, pollution abatement 
technologies, land methodology to quantify ground 
water needed for surface and subsurface water inter- 
actions, reclamation and rehabilitation, snow manage- 
ment practices, and the nature of range watersheds. 

Alternative Goal 2 

MANAGE FOREST AND RANGE LAND RESOURCES TO INCREASE 
WATER YIELD IN SELECTED WATER-SHORT AREAS, MEET 
WATER QUALITY REQUIREMENTS, PREVENT INCREASED 
FLOOD HAZARDS, AND LIMIT FLOOD HAZARD REDUCTION TO 
HIGH VALUE AREAS. 



Basis for Alternative Goal 2 



Goal 2 is intended to capture cost-effective oppor- 
tunities based on direct benefits from programs to 
increase water yield and reduce flood hazard, while 
meeting the water quality objectives of goal 1. The 
water yield increases would be targeted for munici- 
pal , industrial, and energy use. Flood hazard 
reductions would be concentrated on forested water- 
sheds that contribute to frequently occurring floods 
that result in loss of life or extensive property 
damage. The Forest Service would expand participa- 
tion in and supplement Departmental administration 
of P.L.-556, P.L.-534, and RC&D flood reduction pro- 
grams. As compared to goal 1, goal 2 research 
efforts would be intensified to develop and eval- 
uate cost-effective methods. 

Implications of Alternative Goal 2 

1. I nvestments . — Alternative goal 2 would 
require greater Government investments than alter- 
native goal 1, principally for soil and water 
improvements, increased technical and financial 
assistance to the States, and added emphasis on 
research development and application to increase 
water yield. This alternative would allow the For- 
est Service to provide technical assistance to 
States for water yi el d augmentation. Several West- 
ern States have funds from energy development avail- 
able to increase water yield projects, but lack 
technical expertise to implement them. Soil and 
water resource improvement activities would be 
carried out on 75 percent of the areas with declin- 
ing watershed conditions to meet water quality 



71 



standards. It is estimated that 300,000 acres of 
National Forest lands are in declining watershed con- 
dition. An inventory of the acres of State and pri- 
vate lands needing similar treatment has not yet been 
made. This would include working cooperatively with 
the States to better understand, quantify, and manage 
ground water resources. 

2. Economic efficiency . — This goal would capture 
the cost-effective opportunities available to the 
Forest Service to increase water yields and prevent 
flood damage. 

3. Outputs . --Soil and water resource improvement 
activities would be carried out on 75 percent of the 
areas with declining watershed conditions. New or 
improved technology for protection of water quality and 
water yield would be developed and applied. By 1987, 
an inventory would be made of the specific opportuni- 
ties and needs for managing forest and range lands to 
increase water yield, with particular emphasis on: 

— Chronically water-short areas. 

— Municipal, industrial, and energy needs. 

-- Use of consistent physical, economic, and social 
criteria for evaluating investments. 

The value of water will be determined by the ultimate 
use to which it is put (marginal uses). A vegetative 
management program to increase water yield where bene- 
fits exceed cost, or where there is an overriding 
social need, would begin in 1988 and be completed by 
2030. Flood hazard reduction would be implemented on 



72 



20 percent of current flood source areas by the 
year 2000 and on remaining areas by the year 2030. 

4. Prices . — Costs of timber production would 
be increased approximately 5 percent because of 
using cutting practices to increase water yield; 
however, favorable benefits would be achieved over- 
all. Prices of goods and services from forest and 
range lands would not be significantly affected. 
Some reduction in the cost of doing business may 
occur as new or improved technology is developed. 
Increased supplies of water will accrue to the 
marginal uses (typically agriculture). However, 
increased supplies of water tend to reduce the cost 
of water to all users. In some areas, where water 
is the limiting factor, increasing supplies may 
allow industrial, municipal, and energy development. 

5. Nonrenewable resources . — Elimination of 
declining watershed conditions would improve oppor- 
tunities for greater production and use of forest 
and range lands. 

6. Renewable resources . --Hater yields would be 
increased to the extent feasible where justified by 
benefits and costs. Flood hazards would be reduced 
from the most serious flood source areas on forest 
and range lands by participating in U.S. Department 
of Agriculture flood programs and by treating 
declining watershed conditions. 

7. Community . — Alternative goal 2 would provide 
greater benefits to some communities than would 
goal 1 because of increased water supply and 
reduced flood damage. 



8. Employment and income . — There would be a modest 
increase above alternative goal 1 in employment oppor- 
tunities and in income levels. 

9. Technol ogy . --Research efforts would be intensi- 
fied compared to alternative goal 1. 

Alternative Goal 3 

MANAGE FOREST AND RANGE LAND RESOURCES TO INCREASE 
WATER YIELD IN SELECTED AREAS, IMPROVE WATER QUALITY, 
AND REDUCE FLOOD HAZARDS WHERE COST EFFICIENT. 

Basis for Alternative Goal 3 

Goal 3 would strive to capture all physical production 
opportunities on forest and range lands for improving 
water yields and water quality, and for reducing flood- 
producing runoff. The most economical opportunities 
would be sought; however, both direct and indirect 
national benefits must be included to offset costs. 
Opportunity costs would be highest with utilization of 
other forest resources being constrained by watershed 
management. A notable aspect of this goal is increased 
emphasis on research development and demonstration areas 
in support of the goal. It would have the highest 
employment and social benefits of any goal and would 
require the greatest commitment and investment by the 
private sector. 

Implications of Alternative Goal 3 

1. I nvestments . — This investment for flood hazard 

reduction would be the same as goal 2. Forest Service 
investments to increase water yield and quality would 



be expanded above goal 2. The Forest Service 
would continue to participate in P.L.-566, P.L.- 

534, and RC&D programs and would expand treatment of 
declining watershed conditions from 50 percent to 
100 percent. It would provide an integrated 
approach to deal with the many water resource situ- 
ations identified in the demand-supply discussion, 
utilizing a strong State-led water resources plan- 
ning and development approach with Federal assis- 
tance where appropriate. 

2. Economic efficiency . --Economic efficiency 
would be considered for all projects, but direct 
benefits would be controlling factors only for flood 
hazard reduction projects. Both direct and indirect 
benefits would be used to determine economic effi- 
ciency for other programs. 

3. Outputs . — Alternative 3 would result in the 
highest out|3uts of soil and water. Efforts to max- 
imize water outputs may result in some tradeoffs in 
the form of lower outputs for other forest and range 
commodities. 

4. Prices. — This alternative goal would tend to 
reduce the price of water but would put the greatest 
upward pressure on the prices of other forest and 
range commodities. 

5. Nonrenewable resources . — Improvement of 
soil and water resources would enable greater 
production from and use of forest and range lands. 

6. Renewable resources . — Water yields and 
water quality would be maximized. Flood prevention 



73 



would be increased to the extent feasible where 
justified by benefits and costs. 

7. Community . — This goal potentially would pro- 
vide the greatest benefits because of increased 
supplies of high-quality water and protection from 
flood damage. Some offsetting adverse effects could 
result from reduced production of other forest and 
range commodities arising from constraints imposed to 
meet soil and water goals. 

8. Employment and income . — This alternative goal 
would result in the greatest increase in municipal, 
industrial, and energy development with associated 
employment and income benefits. However, the overall 
increase may be reduced somewhat by lower timber and 
range outputs in some areas. 

9. Technology . — This alternative goal would result 
in the greatest expansion of research effort. 



74 



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1— 





75 



RURAL COMMUNITIES AND HUMAN RESOURCES 



Needs and Opportunities 

The Demand and Supply Outlook 

From 1920 to 1979, the U.S. population doubled, 
growing by 98 million people to over 200 million. 
Another 81 million are expected by 2030. Rapid 
growth will occur in the Southern and Pacific Coast 
States with smaller increases in the Rocky Mountain 
States. The growth rates vary between urban and rural 
areas, but during the last 10 years, rural areas grew 
at almost twice the rate of urban areas. 

Rural areas, with one-third the Nation's population, 
contain about 40 percent of the Nation's poor. Forty 
percent of the Native Americans, 38 percent of the 
blacks, 28 percent of the Hispanics, and 11 percent 
of the whites in rural areas live on incomes below 
poverty levels. Unemployment is also more prevalent 
in rural areas, and this will continue unless job 
opportunities are provided. Also, rural workers are 
often paid less than their urban counterparts. 
Obviously, unemployment and low wages are not problems 
in every rural community. However, in those communi- 
ties near National Forests where these problems exist, 
the Nation's forest and range resources can be used 
to create job opportunities and enhance community 
income. Development of these resources will make 
possible the improvement of rural community services 
and the standard of living of rural people. 

Social, Economic, and Environmental Effects 

The social and economic conditions in many rural 
communities can be improved through the addition of 



jobs and training programs. The additional income 
generated within the community may be used to 
improve housing and community services. Further, 
additional jobs will provide stability to a com- 
munity by permitting local youth to remain in the 
area instead of migrating to larger communities. 
Job training, keyed to the requirements of the 
community, will improve the skills of local resi- 
dents and allow them to be competitive for the new 
jobs that would be created. Much of the work that 
would be undertaken could be aimed at environmental 
improvements in and around the community. 

Resource Base 

The country's 736-mil 1 ion-acre forest and 820-mil- 
1 ion-acre range resource base provides a large arena 
for improving employment opportunities in rural 
areas. Labor-intensive management opportunities 
such as timber stand improvement, tree planting, 
campground and trail maintenance, and capital 
investment projects exist on all forest and range 
ownerships in all areas of the Nation. Jobs are 
provided by the harvesting and milling of timber, 
raising of range animals, and recreation and tour- 
ism. The citizens themselves are a valuable 
resource. This combination of valuable natural 
resources and a dependable supply of labor is the 
major resource of rural America. 

Opportunities 

The 190 million acres of National Forest and Grass- 
lands provide direct jobs through forest and range 
products industries--through harvesting and 



77 



manufacturing forest and range products, contracting 
and hiring for natural resource and other conserva- 
tion work, attracting recreationists who support the 
tourism industry, and providing a base for civilian 
conservation employment. 

Presently, the productivity of National Forest lands 
is below its economic and biological potential, 
resulting in deferred opportunities for forest and 
range resources to contribute to the national well- 
being. There is an estimated $1.2 billion backlog 
in critically needed conservation work. The Forest 
Service is in a good position to administer directly 
funded programs and to provide work opportunities 
under hosting arrangements for employment and train- 
ing programs carried out by State and local govern- 
ments and other Federal organizations. The value of 
the funds spent to increase growth of timber and 
forage or maintain and improve facilities is substan- 
tial. These growth activities especially tend to 
increase the value of the investment. 

The 280 million acres of private noni ndustri al forest 
lands also provide numerous job opportunities for 
rural residents — through harvesting and manufacture 
of forest products and sil vicult ural activities. 
Many private forest ownerships are below their economic 
and biological potential, resulting in lost income 
for landowners, lost job opportunities for rural resi- 
dents, and the loss of forest products to the Nation. 
Through increased participation in cooperative forestry 
and incentives programs, landowners can improve their 
incomes, while enhancing their resource base, and also 
contribute to improved social, economic, and environ- 
mental conditions in rural areas. 



78 



The 30 million acres of State and county forest 
lands also provide a resource base for expanded 
rural employment. State forests have a backlog of 
conservation work that can provide employment for 
rural citizens. State Foresters can also host 
directly funded youth, young adult, and senior citi- 
zens conservation programs. 

In towns and small cities, the community forestry 
program can be used to improve the livability of 
urban areas. Jobs are provided for people, urban 
forest resources are used that would otherwise be 
wasted, and city landscapes are beautified. 

There are many rural areas with little or no fire 
protection. Many areas are outside organized fire 
districts, but are not protected by Federal or State 
wildfire control organizations. The Rural Com- 
munity Fire Protection (RCFP) program can be used to 
improve this situation. The program provides 
limited funding, but mostly it helps citizens help 
themselves through local involvement and control. 



Alternative Goals and Implications 
Alternative Goal 1 

PROVIDE JOB OPPORTUNITIES IN HIGH-PRIORITY NATURAL 
RESOURCE WORK THROUGH PARTICIPATION IN THE EMPLOY- 
MENT PROGRAMS OF OTHER AGENCIES ONLY WHEN THEY 
CLEARLY CONTRIBUTE TO THE ACCOMPLISHMENT OF FOREST 
SERVICE OBJECTIVES. 



Basis for Alternative Goal 1 



This goal would limit Forest Service participation in 
rural community and human resource programs to instan- 
ces where benefits to the Forest Service from the 
work of the participants clearly outweighs costs in 
terms of Forest Service appropriations, staffing, and 
management time and effort. The social benefits 
resulting from such programs would not be considered 
in determining cost-benefit relationships. This goal 
would cause the Forest Service to withdraw from cur- 
rent programs that emphasize training and that return 
less than a dollar in resource work for every dollar 
spent. 

Implications of Alternative Goal 1 

1. I nvestments . — This goal continues Forest Ser- 
vice programs to generate forestry opportunities to 
accommodate rural community growth at the 1980 level. 
It will require a moderate level of investment in 
Human Resource Programs (HRP), Rural Community Fire 
Protection (RCFP), and Urban and Community Forestry 
(U&CF). 

2. Renewable resources . — Implementation of this 
goal will result in a small reduction in the backlog 
of needed conservation work by 1990 with continuation 
of the backlog beyond 2030. 

3. Economic efficiency . --With this goal the costs 
would equal or be less than the economic benefits to 
the Forest Service. Each type of program would re- 
turn a minimum of one dollar's worth of resource work 
for every dollar invested. This goal would handicap 



the Forest Service in reducing its critical backlog 
of conservation work. 

4. Community . — This goal will require limited 
participation by Forest Service employees in the 
U.S. Department of Agriculture committee structure 
for rural development at the State and county 
levels. It will probably include only rural devel- 
opment, land use, emergency operations, and those 
networks that would help meet National Forest 
objectives. Through cooperative programs, about 
2,500 small cities and towns will receive improved 
fire protection and about 3,700 will be involved in 
a community forest program to help improve urban 
environments. 

Native Americans and Alaska Natives would partici- 
pate occasionally in the cooperative forestry pro- 
grams. 

5. Employment and income . — Ten thousand enrol- 
lees would participate in Human Resource Programs 
and be provided training for permanent employment 

in the private sector. Cooperative forestry assist- 
ance and incentives programs funded at 1980 levels 
would provide some added employment and income pot- 
ential for rural residents. 

6. Technology . — Research will continue at the 
1980 level to provide technology to manage urban 
and community forests and to increase benefits such 
as property values, employment stability and 
growth, and energy conservation. 



79 



Alternative Goal 2 



PROVIDE JOBS AND TRAINING FOR UNEMPLOYED AND 
UNDEREMPLOYED PERSONS IN HIGH-PRIORITY NATURAL 
RESOURCE WORK THROUGH EXISTING PROGRAMS OF THE 
FOREST SERVICE AND OTHER AGENCIES. 

Basis for Alternative Goal 2 

This goal would allow the Forest Service to partici- 
pate in the programs of other agencies or carry out 
programs of its own wherever the specific objectives 
of the program, such as providing employment and 
training to disadvantaged and underemployed youth 
or senior citizens, can be met by providing work in 
the Forest Service. Benefits would be calculated on 
social as well as natural resource accomplishments. 
Work opportunities would be related only to high- 
priority jobs of the Forest Service. This alterna- 
tive is largely a continuation of current policies. 

Implications of Alternative Goal 2 

1. I nvestment s . --Th i s goal provides for a moderate 
increase above iy^U levels in Forest Service programs 
to generate opportunities to accommodate rural com- 
munity growth. It would require high levels of invest- 
ments in Human Resource Programs, Rural Community Fire 
Protection, and Urban and Community Forestry. 

2. Renewable resources . --Implementation of this 
goal will result in a 25-percent reduction in the 
backlog of needed conservation work by 1990 and comple- 
tion of the backlog sometime after the year 2030. 



80 



3. Economic efficiency . — The mixture of pro- 
grams presently in operation are work, work-train- 
ing, and training. In the past, overall cost bene- 
fit in these programs has been based on a return in 
excess of one dollar for every dollar invested 
toward accomplishment of natural resource work; how- 
ever, the social benefits are not reflected in this 
amount. For example, in 1980, the total funding of 
Human Resource Programs of the Forest Service was 
$160.74 million; value of the work accomplished was 
$171 million; and 72,400 persons were served. Tan- 
gible social benefits include reduction of unem- 
ployment and welfare payments. Intangible social 
benefits realized are: increased self-worth, 
skills training, increased future productive capac- 
ity, and a break in the cycle of poverty. 

4. Community . — This goal requires participation 
by Forest Service employees in most facets of the 
U.S. Department of Agriculture committee structure 
for rural development at the State and county 
levels. This would include rural development, land 
use, rural clean water, emergency operations, and 
others on a priority basis when they can be used to 
help promote Forest Service program objectives. 
Through cooperative programs, about 3,000 small 
cities and towns would receive improved fire pro- 
tection, and about 4,200 will be involved in a For- 
est Service community forestry program to help 
improve urban environments. 

Forest Service dealings with Native Americans and 
Alaska Natives would be at a moderate level and 
tribes and villages would participate to some extent 
in cooperative forestry programs. 



5. Employment and income . --Twenty-five thousand 
enrol lees wouia participate in Human Resource 
Programs and be provided training for permanent 
employment in the private sector. Increased fund- 
ing for cooperative forestry assistance and incen- 
tives programs would provide additional jobs for 
rural residents in high-priority natural resource 
works on private lands. 

6. Technology . — Research will be aimed at 
improving the management of urban and community 
forests to increase the flow of products and ser- 
vices, such as outdoor recreation, on which these 
communities depend and developing fire protection 
i nnovat ions. 

Alternative Goal 3 

PROVIDE JOBS AND TRAINING FOR UNEMPLOYED AND UNDER- 
EMPLOYED PERSONS IN HIGH-PRIORITY NATURAL RESOURCE 
WORK THROUGH THE USE OF EXISTING PROGRAMS AND THE 
INITIATION OF SPECIAL FOREST SERVICE PROGRAMS FOR 
THIS PURPOSE. 

Basis for Alternative Goal 3 

Goal 3 would establish community and human resource 
objectives as basic objectives of the Forest Service. 
Both benefits from the accomplishment of natural 
resource objectives and benefits from the accomplish- 
ment of social goals would be used to establish 
program levels. The Forest Service would consider 
alternative programs directed to local communities 
and populations with chronic unemployment and low 



incomes. Programs would substitute wage opportuni- 
ties and income for Federal, State, and local wel- 
fare payments. 

Implications of Alternative Goal 3 

1. I nvestments .--This goal represents a signi- 
ficant increase from 1980 levels in Forest Service 
programs to generate forestry opportunities to 
accommodate rural community growth. It would re- 
quire the highest level of investments in the Human 
Resource Program, Rural Community Fire Protection, 
and Urban and Community Forestry programs. In- 
creased investments would be primarily for initi- 
ation of special Forest Service programs designed 
to meet employment and training needs of rural 
residents on National Forest lands. 

2. Renewable resources . — Implementation of thi 
goal would result in a 30-percent reduction in the 
backlog of needed conservation work by 1990 and com 
pletion of the backlog by the year 2030. 

3. Economic eff iciency--costs vs. economic 
benefits to Forest Service programs . — D i rect 
benefits to the horest bervice would be a maximum 
of 50 percent. Direct and indirect benefits to 
the Nation as a whole would make up the other 50 
percent. Potential return would be much greater 
than the initial cost because of decreased transfer 
payments. This type of public service employment 
eases the strain on the work force, provides a sub- 
stantial contribution in conservation work, reduces 
the impact on welfare and unemployment compensation 
funds, and allows the Forest Service to employ a 



greater number of minorities and women. Indirect 
benefits would include the hiring of staffs to run the 
programs, thereby putting more money into the local 
community. 

4. Community . — Goal 3 would require participation 
by Forest Service employees in all facets of the U.S. 
Department of Agriculture committee structure for 
rural development at the State and county levels. 
This would include rural development, land use, rural 
clean water, emergency operations, and others designed 
to improve delivery of Departmental programs to rural 
citizens. Through cooperative programs, about 4,000 
small cities and towns would receive improved fire pro- 
tection and about 4,800 will be involved in a community 
forestry program to help improve urban environments. 

Forest Service dealings with Native Americans and 
Alaska Natives would be at a high level. Tribes and 
native villages would participate in all levels of 
forestry programs. 

5. Employment and income . — Forty thousand enrol- 
lees would participate in Human Resource Programs and 
would be provided training for permanent employment 
in the private sector. Increased funding for cooper- 
ative forestry assistance and incentives programs 
would provide additional jobs for rural residents in 
high-priority natural resource work on private lands. 

6. Technology. --Research will be aimed at increas- 
ing the long-term stable production of goods and services 
to a high enough level that employment in dependent 
rural industries will be increased. Research activi- 
ties will include discovering methods to increase 



82 



outdoor recreation opportunities and developing 
fire protection innovations. Research will be 
directed toward both public and privately owned 
lands. 



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83 



INTERNATIONAL FORESTRY 



Needs and Opportunities 
The Demand and Supply Outlook 

The greater part of the world's land surface is cov- 
ered by some form of natural vegetation and, in broad 
terms, can be called forest and range land. Most of 
this land is valued for yields of wood and forage. 
However, all of it is valuable for other uses such as 
water production, wildlife habitat, and outdoor recre- 
ation, as well as for broader environmental and 
ecological reasons. 

With present investments in management, rising demands 
of a rapidly expanding world population currently 
exceed the capacity of forest and range lands to sus- 
tain the broad and balanced mix of uses that are nec- 
essary for a stable and productive society. Of parti- 
cular significance is the ongoing destruction of for- 
ests in the humid tropics and in the arid and semi- 
arid regions of the world. The resulting environmental 
consequences threaten not only future wood and forage 
supplies, but also food production and habitability of 
the land itself. 

Close to half of the world population depends on wood 
for fuel. At least half the timber cut in the world, 
and 80 percent of all wood consumed in developing coun- 
tries is used for fuel. In the woodlands and savannahs 
of the semi arid tropics and subtropics, fuel wood sup- 
plies already fall short of needs in many locations 
and are being depleted at rates far in excess of the 
land's capacity to replenish them under present use 
and management practices. If present trends continue 



84 



until 2000, nearly 3 billion people will be affected 
by fuel wood shortages. 



Demand for industrial wood products is also growing 
more rapidly than supplies. Further, the area of 
forest land used for production of industrial wood 
is declining. For example, conversion of forests to 
shifting agricultural use and wasteful logging prac- 
tices in the tropics are expected to reduce this 
source of industrial wood by about one-half over the 
next 20 years. 

In addition to increasing demands for wood and for- 
age, the demands for all other forest and range 
products such as water, outdoor recreation, and 
wildlife habitat are rising rapidly. These demands 
cannot be met unless present use practices are 
changed and investments in management programs are 
greatly increased. 

Social, Economic, and Environmental Effects 

Within developing nations in tropical regions, the 
environmental and social implications of the fore- 
going outlook are forbidding. Tropical moist for- 
ests represent complex and fragile relationships of 
vegetation, soil, rainfall, and temperature. Pre- 
sent deforestation throughout the tropics is result- 
ing in siltation of rivers, lakes, irrigation sys- 
tems, and reservoirs behind hydroelectric dams. 
Destructive flooding, soil compaction, depleted 
ground-water reserves, and invasion of nonproductive 
vegetation seriously threaten habitability of the 
land in many areas. Of broader concern are the 
possible effects of deforestation on climate and 



diminished biological diversity brought about by loss 
of plant and animal species. 

Forests represent a potential source of income and 
employment for people in many of the poorest countries 
in Asia, Africa, and Latin America, where low living 
standards now pose threats to political stability. 
In some cases, forests offer the only source of prod- 
ucts for export; yet, forest land is needed for 
production of food, and further conversion to crop- 
land and pasture appears inevitable. 

The demand and supply situation is particularly seri- 
ous in the woodlands and savannahs of the tropics and 
subtropics where 90 percent of the people depend upon 
wood for heating and cooking. There is also heavy 
dependence upon shrubs and grasses for grazing live- 
stock. Large areas in these regions are being turned 
into uninhabitable desertland by constant removal of 
fuel wood and by overgrazing. If this kind of change 
is not reversed by the year 2000, at least an addi- 
tional 250 million people could be without wood for 
minimal heating and cooking needs. This will mean 
that more and more animal dung and crop residues will 
be burned for fuel, a practice which is already deple- 
ting and improverishi ng soil resources. 

Resource Base 

There are no reliable data on the exact area of forest 
and range lands in the world. Estimates indicate there 
are about 6.2 billion acres of forest and another 3.0 
billion acres of open woodlands and savannahs. Data 
available for many large countries indicate there are 
also huge areas of nonwooded grasslands. 



Opportunities 

Under more intensive management and with proper use 
that protects the environment, forest and range 
lands in most parts of the world have the capacity 
to meet prospective increased demands for products 
in the decades immediately ahead. 

Wood supplies can be increased and extended by: 

-- Regenerating nonstocked areas with suitable 
species. 

— Using management, control, and harvest prac- 
tices that reduce losses from natural causes, 
undesirable vegetation, fires, insects, and 
disease. 

— Harvesting mature stands and regeneration of 
harvested areas. 

— Converting existing vegetation to more desir- 
able species. 

— Applying intensive management practices such as 
planting genetically improved stock, spacing 
control, and fertilization. 

— Establishing plantations of fast-growing spe- 
cies to provide fuel in deficient areas. 

— Utilizing wood residues. 

— Improving harvesting and processing techniques. 



85 



— Increasing efficiency in end uses, including 
charcoal conversion and heating and cooking prac- 
tices. 

Extending the useful life of wood products. 

Forage supplies can be increased by: 

Improving grazing practices such as controlling 
the intensity of grazing, rotating livestock 
between units, improving water supplies, and 
fencing to manage livestock use better. 

-- Seeding palatable grasses to increase forage 
production. 

— Controlling noxious weeds, poisonous plants and 
shrubs, and insects and diseases. 

— Utilizing intensive management techniques such as 
genetically improved seed, fertilization, and 
irrigation. 

More extensive use of agrisil viculture systems designed 
to produce annual plants, bushes, vines, and trees can 
increase supplies of wood, food, and animal products. 

Research efforts can do much to increase the supplies 
of wood and forage by: 

— Developing new and better ways to manage forest 
and range lands. 



86 



— Developing new and improved plant varieties and 
ways to control undesirable plants. 

Conducting basic research needed to increase 
the knowledge base in tropical and subtrop- 
ical land and resource management. 

-- Finding ways to motivate people to improve the 
care and use of forest and range lands. 

A large amount of technical and managerial knowledge 
is now available to increase the production of wood 
and forage. Opportunities exist to transfer this 
knowledge to the people who manage and use the land. 
Resource managers and technical specialists in the 
Forest Service or in collaborating universities, 
organizations, and agencies can train foreign 
nationals, both at field locations in the United 
States and at work sites in other countries. In 
1980, about 150 foreign nationals received individ- 
ualized training at such locations. 

The Forest Service can mobilize specialists from 
within and from collaborating Federal and State 
agencies, universities, forest and range industries, 
and allied organizations to provide advisory ser- 
vices and technical assistance either on a short- 
term detail basis or on long-term resident assign- 
ment. By this means and through domestic and inter- 
national programs of cooperative research and devel- 
opment, the United States can help deliver the sci- 
entific and technological means to increase timber 
and forage supplies without adverse effects on other 
products and uses of forest and range lands. In 
1980, technical and managerial specialists spent 



about 12 person-years in Forest Service-supported 
development assistance programs at field missions 
in other countries and headquarter units in the 
United States. 

The Forest Service, along with collaborating organi- 
zations, can also facilitate the mutual exchange of 
scientific information and technology such as that on 
genetic improvements, advance methods of propagating 
clonal materials, and wood manufacturing and construc- 
tion practices. 

Finally, there are opportunities to more effectively 
use existing forest and range resources and meet part 
of the growing demands in many countries by increas- 
ing international trade. And international trade in 
forest and range products can be facilitated by car- 
rying on research on markets and the factors affect- 
ing trade; establishing attaches to disseminate mar- 
ket information from embassies and trade missions in 
major trading countries or regions; and providing 
expert advisors and consultants on trade matters 
including factors such as the development of commer- 
cially acceptable quality standards and procedures 
that guard against the transmission of forest and 
range diseases and pests. In 1980, about 3 person- 
years of Forest Service effort went to provide tech- 
nical services and research on international markets 
and factors affecting trade. 



Alternative Goals and Implications 



Alternative Goal 1 

SUPPORT THE LONG-TERM MANAGEMENT AND USE OF THE 
WORLD'S FOREST AND RANGE RESOURCES AND THE MAINTEN- 
ANCE OF INTERNATIONAL TRADE IN FOREST PRODUCTS BY 
RESPONDING TO HIGH-PRIORITY NEEDS FOR FOREST SERVICE 
CONTRIBUTIONS IN RESEARCH, TRAINING, TECHNICAL 
ASSISTANCE, AND TECHNOLOGY EXCHANGE. 

Basis for Alternative Goal 1 

This goal responds to the general direction to 
Federal agencies to constrain program expenditures. 

Implications of Alternative Goal 1 

1. Investments . — Achieving this goal will 
involve a continuation of current Forest Service 
programs and funding in constant dollars. The dol- 
lar amounts would be small. Training of foreign 
nationals and technical assistance assignments are 
largely funded by outside sources. Research and 
information exchange activities would require For- 
est Service funding. 

2. Outputs . --The outputs in terms of number of 
people, technical assistance provided, and research 
will continue at the present levels. 

3. Prices .--Achi evi ng this goal would reduce, 
to some extent, the rates of increases in the prices 
of forest and range products. 



87 



4. Employment and income .— Achievi ng the 
improvements in this goal would increase the income 
derived from forest and range lands. Some of them 
would be in areas where natural resources are the 
only hope for a better way of life for the local 
people. 

5. International trade . — Attainment of this 
goal would lead to some increase in trade in forest 
and range products including the export of timber 
products from the United States. 

6. Envi ronment . — Achieving improvements in for- 
est and range use and management would have desirable 
effects on the environment and on renewable and non- 
renewable resources. 

7. Political stability . — Achievement of this goal 
would lead to some improvement of political stability 
i n the worl d. 

Alternative Goal 2 

IMPROVE THE LONG-TERM MANAGEMENT AND USE OF THE WORLD'S 
FOREST AND RANGE RESOURCES AND INCREASE INTERNATIONAL 
TRADE IN FOREST PRODUCTS BY AGGRESSIVELY EXPANDING FOR- 
EST SERVICE PROGRAMS OF RESEARCH, TRAINING, TECHNICAL 
ASSISTANCE, /\ND TECHNOLOGY EXCHANGE. 

Basis for Alternative Goal 2 

This goal responds to the view that it is in the best 
interests of wealthy and technically advanced nations 
to provide aid and assistance to other nations in need 
of such help. 



88 



Implications of Alternative Goal 2 



The implications of this goal are the same as goal 
1, but on a much larger scale. Program funding 
needs and outputs would both increase about 50 times 
by 2030. Improvements in the management and use of 
the forest and range resource would be measurable 
and take place over a shorter period of time. 































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89 



PROTECTION AND SUPPORT 



Needs and Opportunities 

Protection includes all activities on public and pri- 
vate land that help prevent the loss of natural 
resources, natural resource productivity and renew- 
ability, facility maintenance, environmental quality, 
and worker and visitor safety. Support includes 
activities that protect these values during specific 
development projects such as the protection of soil 
quality during a timber harvest. Support activities 

do not primarily/ benefit a single resource but are 
necessary to maintain and facilitate outputs of 
other resources. 

Prudent landowners protect the productivity of 
their land and resources and the investments they 
have made. This protection can be self-administered 
and financed, for example, road, fence, or building 
maintenance, or it can be administered as a public 
service. Further, some landowners protect an effec- 
tive land base by exchanging land or purchasing addi- 
tional lands. Values can usually be protected and 
the impact of human activities lessened when technical 
specialists, such as soil scientists and wildlife biol- 
ogists, assist landowners and managers by devising 
and applying scientific and technological developments. 

Protection and support activities are essential for the 
cost-efficient production of timber, water, minerals, 
forage, recreation, wildlife and fish. These activi- 
ties maintain the quality of air, soil, wilderness, 
occupancy developments, scenery, cultural resources, 
safety, and property. In aggregate, they represent 

about one-third of the Forest Service resources used 
to accomplish its programs. 



90 



The Demand and Supply Outlook 



Projected increases in population, income, and eco- 
nomic activity will intensify the use of and demand 
for natural resource products from private and pub- 
lic lands. More intensive use of these resources 
results in corresponding increases in protection and 
support activities. 

Land use 

For over 20 years, an average of 4.6 million acres 
of forest and range lands have been converted annu- 
ally to other uses (such as cropland, urban develop- 
ment, highways, reservoirs). But while the Nation 
is experiencing a reduction in available forest and 
range land acres, the demands for their uses (such 
as wilderness, wildlife, timber) are steadily 
increasing. 

Soil 

Soil is basic to agricultural and forestry produc- 
tion. The quantity and quality of the Nation's 
renewable resources are dependent on the quantity 
and quality of the soil resource. The prospect for 
increasing agricultural and forestry production 
requires conservation and enhancement of soil pro- 
ductivity. Soil productivity is reduced by ero- 
sion, land use conversion, loss of nutrients, com- 
paction, water table changes, or by the accumulation 
of toxic substances. Recent estimates by the 
U.S. Department of Agriculture's Soil Conservation 

Service, in their RCA Appraisal (part 1, table 3D-5) 
show an average annual soil loss of 1.18 tons/acre 



on all non-Federal forest lands, 0.63 ton/acre on 
ungrazed lands, and nearly 4 tons/acre on grazed 

lands. 

Air 

The Nation's air quality is improving, although seri- 
ous problems exist in many areas. Forest and range 
fires emit thousands of tons of particulates into the 
air each year. Although prescribed fires help prevent 
destructive wildfires, which usually have a more seri- 
ous air quality impact, they have raised concerns 
about excessive or unnecessary air degradation. 

Air pollutants transported from industrial and urban 
centers can adversely affect public use and enjoyment 
of forest and range land resources. Public demand for 
clean air remains at a high level. 

Visual 

Visual quality is becoming increasingly important to 
National Forest visitors. As the level of developments 
that would affect visual quality increase, it is 
important to manage this resource to improve quality 
where practical and to reduce adverse impacts where 
realistic and feasible. 

Cultural 

Historic and prehistoric cultural resources are valued 
as a way to understand past life and to understand mod- 
ern life better. In addition, certain lands have a 
religious significance to Native Americans that dic- 
tates special management when these lands are in public 



ownership. As nationwide development increases, the 
potential for adverse impacts on cultural resources 
increases. Cultural resources must be identified 
and managed to control these impacts. 

Occupancy Developments 

Residences, resorts, powerlines, pipelines, roads, 
and other improvements will continue to be built. 
These developments raise two concerns. First, pro- 
tection costs for these lands increase as they are 
developed. Second, the developments themselves 
must be maintained or replaced periodically. 

Pest Management 

Pests of all kinds including insects, diseases, and 
unwanted plants and animals detract from the qual- 
ity, productivity, or safety of forest and range 
lands. Actions are necessary to prevent losses 
caused by these pests. In addition, the Forest 
Service maintains capabilities to respond with bio- 
logical, chemical, and mechanical control measures 
to serious outbreaks as they are detected. While 
the use of pesticides has been an important part of 
this work and has been carefully regulated, there is 
public debate about the health and environmental 
effects of chemical and biological pest control. 

Fi re * 

Forest and range fire management protects life, 
property, and wildland resources from wildfire. 
Prescribed fire is used, where appropriate, to pro- 
tect and enhance the productivity of forests and 



91 



associated resources. As resource activity increases, 
so does the threat of damaging fire. In 1980, $117 
million of losses were caused by fires on land inside 
National Forest protection boundaries. 

Law Enforcement 

The Forest Service cooperates with State and political 
subdivisions in the enforcement of laws, ordinances, 
and regulations involving the protection not only of 
natural resources and facilities, but also of persons 
and their property when they are visiting National 
Forest System lands. The need for improved law 
enforcement is evidenced by increasing vandalism and 
violence on public and private land. In 1980, approx- 
imately 60,000 crimes were responded to on National 
Forest System lands by cooperative law enforcers, com- 
pared with approximately 35,000 in 1977. 

Social, Economic, and Environmental Effects 

The current trend of increasing demands for products 
from public and private forest and range land may 
have adverse social, economic, and environmental 
effects unless investments are made to protect natural 
resource quality. 

Continued conversion of forest and range land to nonag- 
ricultural uses may require purchase or exchange of 
land in order to consolidate ownership or acquire key 
tracts for public use. Acquisition of rights-of-way to 
allow access to public and private land may also be 
needed. These ownership adjustments are expensive 
and can cause local concern about ownership patterns. 



92 



Reduced soil productivity on forest and range lands 
could lead to changes in employment and community 
stability. Unless management practices that main- 
tain and improve long-term productivity of a con- 
tinuous high-level flow of products and services are 
chosen, living standards could deteriorate. 

As air quality nears the national standards, new or 
additional activities will be restricted and more 
stringent emission controls will be needed. The 
result will probably be higher costs to the public. 

Government actions aimed at the preservation or 
limited development of unmodified (natural) land- 
scapes will place greater demand and value on land 
that can be developed. 

Conflicts between development activities and cul- 
tural resources will cause increased development 
costs, cultural resource losses, or both. 

If public use facilities, such as roads and camp- 
grounds, are not protected and maintained, unneces- 
sary losses and public hazards will occur. 

Intensified demand for forest and range production 
will sharpen the need for integrated pest manage- 
ment. The net result will be increased expenditures 
to protect or maintain productivity consistent with 
the value of potential losses. Concern for the 
potential long-term effects of pest control methods 
or results will increase. 



Resource Base 



There are 736 million acres of forest land and 820 
million acres of rangeland in the United States. In 
1977, lands in private ownership, plus relatively 
small areas in State, county, and municipal ownerships, 
amounted to about 53 percent of the total forest and 
range land area in the Nation. 

The Forest Service has management responsibility for 
the 190 million acres of National Forest System lands 
and waters. About 30 million of these acres (16 
percent) are not fully available for use because of 
unmarked boundaries, limited access, unauthorized 
uses, or poor ownership patterns. The National Forest 
System contains many facilities needed to support 
resource administration, public use, and utilization 
of the resources: 270,000 miles of road, 1,500 large 
dams, 22,000 buildings, 272,000 miles of property bound- 
aries, and an unknown number of cultural resource sites. 

The Forest Service also has responsibility for cooper- 
ative programs and for forest and range research. 
Nationwide cooperative forestry programs are conducted 
with State forestry agencies to protect and improve some 
1.4 billion acres of forests, rangelands, and related 
resources in private and non-Federal public ownership. 
A comprehensive research program, in cooperation with 
other research agencies and institutions, is aimed at 
solution of problems relating to management of all types 
and ownerships of forests and associated rangelands and 
to uses of these natural resources. 



Opportunities 



-- Provide a cost-efficient fire management pro- 
gram on National Forests, including use of 
prescribed fire, to protect, maintain, and 
enhance production and quality of resources. 

— Provide for cost-effective fire protection on 
private and other public lands through tech- 
nical assistance to State and local govern- 
ments, including rural wildfire training and 
improved fire response capabilities. 

— Provide technical assistance to reduce fire 
hazards and risks at the urban-wildland inter- 
face through education, fuel modification, haz- 
ard reduction, and vegetation management, 
including effective use of prescribed fire. 

-- Provide technical assistance, training, and new 
technology to Federal, State, and private coop- 
erators for application of integrated pest 
management programs. 

— Implement an integrated pest management pro- 
gram on National Forest System lands to pro- 
tect, maintain, and enhance the production and 
quality of forest and range land resources. 

— Improve or restore soil productivity through 
application of soil management practices. 
Inventory and interpret the soil resource. 



93 



Reduce soil erosion by timely revegetation of dis- 
turbed areas and application of improved engineering 
and land management technology. 

Maintain or restore visual character and signifi- 
cant scenic values through resource management 
techniques. 

Reduce air pollution from forest and range activi- 
ties through research, development, application, 
and timing of improved forest and range land manage- 
ment practices. 

Prevent or reduce air pollution damage to forest and 
range land resources by cooperating with air quality 
regulatory agencies to ensure pollutant effects on 
those resources are considered in the regulatory 
process. Through research, develop better predictive 
capabilities and understanding of air pollution and 
its effects on forest and range land resources. 

Maintain a land ownership adjustment program that 
optimizes ownership patterns, reduces administrative 
costs, eases resource development, prevents trespass, 
and resolves management needs with adjacent owners. 

Reduce trespass and promote good neighbor relations 
by marking and maintaining property boundaries. 

Inventory, protect, and interpret appropriate cul- 
tural resources. 

Improve health and safety of forest and range land 
visitors through cooperative law enforcement. 



water and sanitation improvements, road main- 
tenance, public safety, and education 
programs. 

— Incorporate and monitor protection and sup- 
port activities through National Forest land 
and resource management planning and State 
forest resource planning efforts. 

— Aid States in the identification of prime for- 
est lands for retention and improved long-term 
management. 

— Encourage retention of private forest and range 
lands for forest and agricultural use through 
involvement in local and State land use plan- 
ning, recommendation of tax policy revisions, 
and education in the coimercial potential of 
these lands. 

— Maintain Forest Service facilities needed to 
protect and support management activities on 
National Forest System lands. 

— Conduct research on insect and disease, fire, 
soil, water, air, and watershed protection to 
improve management capability and resource 
qual ity. 



Goal and Implication 

Protection and support activities are an essential 
part of any program carried out in natural resource 



management. Because of the close relationship between 
protection and support activities and the goals in the 
other opportunity areas, only one goal and implication 
statement is presented. 

Protection and Support Goal 

PROVIDE LEADERSHIP IN FIRE, PEST, LAND USE, FACILITY 
MANAGEMENT, AND OTHER SUPPORTING ACTIVITIES ON NATIONAL 
FOREST SYSTEM LANDS COMMENSURATE WITH NATIONAL RESOURCE 
GOALS. PREVENT RESOURCE LOSS AND DAMAGE AND EMPHASIZE 
MITIGATING EXISTING LOSSES AND DAMAGE. COOPERATE WITH 
LOCAL, STATE, AND OTHER FEDERAL AGENCIES AND PRIVATE 
LANDOWNERS IN RURAL FIRE PREVENTION AND CONTROL, FOREST 
PEST MANAGEMENT, AND OTHER RESOURCE PROTECTION PROGRAMS. 

Basis for Protection and Support Goal 

This goal provides an efficient level of protection to 
maintain the value of forest and range land resources 
and facilities for the long term. It recognizes con- 
gressional direction to preserve the value and integrity 
of Federal land and resources and to sustain and improve 
the productivity of Federal lands. It reduces the risk 
of losing future land and resource productive opportu- 
nities, both marketable and environmental. The goal 
recognizes the importance of continued local. State, 
and Federal cooperation to support broad national 
interests in the management of the Nation's forest 
resources. 

Implications of Protection and Support Goal 

1. I nvestments . — Investments on National Forest 
System lands will meet basic responsibilities of 



landownership, such as boundary posting and visitor 
safety, and be commensurate with the level of activ- 
ities for resource production. Forest Service par- 
ticipation with government agencies and private 
landowners to protect forest and range resources 
from fire, forest pests, and loss of soil produc- 
tivity would continue. 

2. Standards and activities . --Act ivities will 
be carried out to ensure that landowners meet their 
basic responsibilities to maintain environmental 
quality, protect resources, maintain facilities, 
and meet public safety standards. Such activities 
are to: 

a. Provide a level of fire protection that 
in cooperation with others, efficiently meets long- 
term land and resource management goals and objec- 
tives, including the enhancement of both environ- 
mental and renewable market resource values. On 
National Forest lands, there are opportunities for 
gain in efficiency through redistribution of fund- 
ing levels. For State and private lands, the first 
step is joint Forest Service and State assessment of 
existing State programs and opportunities to improve 
their effectiveness. 

b. Reduce resource damage on forest and 
range lands by forest pests through integrated pest 
management. Limit damage where costs do not exceed 
the value of potential losses and emphasize protec- 
tion against the 10 most damaging pests by the year 
2000 and an additional 5 through 2030. Carry out 
detection, evaluation, and suppression activities to 



95 



apply integrated pest management for major pests on 
both Federal and non-Federal lands. 

c. Limit soil loss to a level that maintains 
productivity of the site and initiate projects to 
restore and improve soil productivity. Continue to 
provide technical asistance to private landowners, 
including cooperative assistance for watershed 
improvement projects on selected State and private 
lands where long-term productivity is threatened. 

d. Complete soil resource inventory to levels 
needed for resource management. 

e. Develop the capability to predict and deter- 
mine key air pollutant emissions from forest and range 
land managment activities by 1990. Manage National 
Forest activities to limit pollutant emissions and 
encourage forestry activities on State and private 
lands to meet State and Federal air quality standards. 
Cooperate with air regulatory and other appropriate 
agencies to prevent damage to class I forest and range 
land by air pollutants emanating from non-Forest Ser- 
vice sources and to reduce damage where major impacts 
are occurring on National Forest resources. 

f. Complete assignment of all visual quality 
objectives by 1990. Prepare detailed visual resource 
planning by 1990. Provide visual impact analysis sup- 
port to improve the level of visual quality on all 
forests. 

g. Survey, mark, and post 60,000 miles of 
National Forest property boundaries by 1990 or a greater 
number as needed for resource management. Maintain 10 



96 



percent of existing property boundaries each year. 
National Forest boundaries will be surveyed and 
marked prior to resource management activities adja 
cent to private lands. Give priority to boundaries 
that may encroach upon neighboring ownerships. 
Also, mark boundaries to address critical resource 
management needs, identify public lands for visi- 
tors, facilitate administration, and meet other 
management concerns. (Note: The Forest Service 
completed 6,000 miles of boundary location and mark 
ing in 1980.) 

h. Resolve all existing trespass cases and 
reduce new trespass cases to 200 per year by 1990. 

i. Acquire 1,200 road and trail rights-of- 
way per year until 1990 to improve access to 
National Forest land for public use and administra- 
tion. Acquire other access as needed by 2030. 

j. Acquire land for National Forest pur- 
poses where the public need is urgent. Pursue land 
exchange when high-priority offers are made. 

k. Seek optimum landownership patterns to 
reduce administrative costs, prevent trespass, 
reduce need for right-of-way acquisition, and 
reduce the need for property boundary surveys. 

1. Complete cultural resource surveys of 
National Forest lands prior to development activity 
or by 2030. Preserve and protect significant cul- 
tural resources and provide interpretation where 
appropriate. 



m. Provide a level of maintenance that pro- 
tects the investment in National Forest roads and 
trails. Construct and maintain roads and trails to 
reduce costs to users, permit full public access to 
National Forest lands (coordinated with dispersed 
recreation goals), and minimize damage to other 
resources. 

n. Provide timely maintenance for needed 
dams, buildings, and other facilities to protect 
investments fru-^ deterioration and to ensure safe 
operation. 

0. Provide timely action on applications for 
use of National Forest land and efficient administra- 
tion of existing use permits and leases. 

p. Aid States in identifying prime forest and 
range land. Encourage State Forester participation in 
local and State land use planning to discourage conver- 
sion of prime forest and range land to other uses, 
recommend revisions in tax policies, and emphasize the 
commercial potential of these lands. Meet needs for 
land for community expansion where this need outweighs 
the value of continued Federal land owners hi p. 

3. Prices . — This goal has high potential to reduce 
the rate of long-term price increases due to losses 
from fire, forest pests, soil erosion, and other 
sources. 

4. Economic efficiency . — Protection programs mini- 
mize total cost and net resource value change, subject 
to meeting long-term social and productivity objectives. 



5. Nonrenewable resources . — Energy resource 
uses will be highest in the short term. There may 
be reduced use in the long term as fewer actions 
are needed to correct impacts associated with other 
resource programs. 

6. Renewable resources . — Productivity increases 
would result in higher quality and quantity of 
renewable resources. 

7. Community, employment, and income . — Improved 
protection and support activities will help sustain 
community economies dependent on natural resources. 
Where quality of life is related to a well -main- 
tained natural resource base and to opportunities 
for communities to use those resources, quality of 
life will benefit. 

8. Technology . --Intensify research to reduce 
unit costs, increase unit benefits, and develop 
more cost-effective protection and support methods. 
Make technology available to users to ensure that 
primary goals are achieved. This includes research 
on insects and disease that emphasizes integrated 
pest management; improved fire risk forecasting and 
fuel management; use of prescribed fire as a tool; 
and mitigation of pollution from disturbed lands, 
acid rain, air, and water. 

9. Air. --Devel op the capability to predict 
and determine key air pollutant emissions from 
forest and range land management activities by 1990. 
Manage National Forest activities to limit pollutant 
emissions and encourage forestry activities on State 
and private lands that meet State and Federal air 



97 



quality standards. Cooperate with air regulatory and 
other appropriate agencies to prevent and reduce dam- 
age to all affected National Forest lands by air pol- 
lutants emanating from non-Forest Service sources. 



Note: Because only one goal is presented for the 
Protection and Support opportunity area, no comparison 
table is presented. 



98 



« U. S. GOVERNMENT PRINTING OFFICE : 1981 522-008/3606 



I