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Running Head: AVIATION AND MISSILE MATERIEL ENTERPRISE DEMOGRAPHICS 1 



A Study of Age Demographics across the Aviation and Missile Materiel Enterprise 


Chris D. Hodges 


Defense Acquisition University 
Senior Service College Fellowship 2015-2016 


31 March 2016 


This research paper is presented to the Defense Acquisition University for partial fulfillment of 
the academic requirements for the Army’s Senior Service College Fellowship (SSCF) under the 
direction of SSCF Director, John Daniels and Research Advisor, Mr. Chris Fry. 


Approved for Public Release, Distribution A. Aviation and Missile Life Cycle Management 

Command Public Affairs, 25 April 2016 



AVIATION AND MISSILE MATERIEL ENTERPRISE DEMOGRAPHICS 


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Approval Page 

Title : A Study of Age Demographics across the Aviation and Missile Materiel Enterprise 
Author : Chris D. Hodges 

Organization : DAU-South, Senior Service College Fellowship (SSCF) 

Date of Paper : 29 March 2016 

Informed Consent Forms Completed and On-file : Completed 
Research Advisor I Chris Frvl Approval Date : 25 March 2016 
SSCF Director I John Danielsl Approval Date : 31 March 2016 
OPSEC Approval Date : 4 April 2016 
Approval for Public Release Date : 25 April 2016 
Date Submitted for Journal Publication: 



AVIATION AND MISSILE MATERIEL ENTERPRISE DEMOGRAPHICS 


Acknowledgements 

The primary data and information serving as the foundation of this research would not have 
acquired had it not been for the generosity of G-l staff across the five organizations analyzed 
herein. Their gift of time and effort from their busy jobs to provide a massive amount of data 
and field many questions on my behalf should not go overlooked. Their jobs are a challenging 
one and my interactions with each of them proved they are tackling the challenges most 
admirably with dignity and character. 



AVIATION AND MISSILE MATERIEL ENTERPRISE DEMOGRAPHICS 4 

Abstract 

The Budget Control Act of 2011 along with sequestration is forcing the Department of Defense 
to reduce expenditures significantly compared to post 9/11 spending. As the Army reduces in 
strength, so will the civilian workforce at commensurate levels (Tan, 2015). The civilian 
Defense workforce has been challenged to address proper age diversity as they seek to balance 
experience with building the bench for tomorrow. The culprit behind this dilemma is due mostly 
to the hiring restrictions in place prior to 9/11. These restrictions caused gaps in the age 
histograms where certain age groups are disproportionately lower than others (Nataraj, Hanser, 
Camm, & Yeats, 2014). As the baby boomer generation now retires from the workforce, the gap 
becomes apparent as there is a smaller pool of human resources to fill the vacancies left by the 
baby boomers. This paper studies the severity of the human resource challenge in researching a 
microcosm of the defense acquisition workforce- the Aviation and Missile Materiel Enterprise 
located at Redstone Arsenal, AL. An analytical study of the demographics in present day 
population is studied in order to help make inferences as to what may occur in the future. The 
results should be an aid to the human resource managers across the civilian acquisition 


workforce who are forced with tackling this challenge. 



AVIATION AND MISSILE MATERIEL ENTERPRISE DEMOGRAPHICS 


Table of Content 

Abstract.4 

Chapter 1 - The Manpower Challenge.8 

History That Shaped the Acquisition Workforce.8 

The Future Challenge.10 

The Problem Statement.10 

Chapter 2 - Literature and Data Review.12 

Chapter 3 - Research Methodology.13 

Determining the Eligible Retirement Pool.14 

Predicting Retirements.16 

Forecasting the Supply of Human Resources.18 

Research Hypothesis.20 

Limitations of the Study.21 

Chapter 4 - Research Findings.22 

The Aviation & Missile Command - Redstone.22 

Program Executive Office for Missiles and Space.29 

Program Executive Office for Aviation.34 

The Aviation & Missile Research Development and Engineering Center.39 

The Army Contracting Command- Redstone.44 

The Aviation & Missile Materiel Enterprise.50 

Chapter 5 - Observations and Conclusions on the Data.53 

Chapter 6 - Recommendations.57 

References.61 

Glossary of Acronyms.63 


























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List of Figures 

Figure 1: AMCOM Age and Years of Service Trends for Voluntary Retirements.16 

Figure 2: AMCOM Distribution on Voluntary Retirement Age (FY05-15).17 

Figure 3: AMCOM Number of Perso nn el Opting for Voluntary Retirement by FY.19 

Figure 4: Profile of the Various Job Series at AMCOM-Redstone.23 

Figure 5: Histogram of Age at AMCOM-Redstone (FY15).24 

Figure 6: AMCOM Average Age as a Function of Time.25 

Figure 7: Histogram of Years-Service at AMCOM-Redstone (FY15).25 

Figure 8: AMCOM-Redstone Retirement Eligibility by Labor Category.26 

Figure 9: AMCOM-Redstone Retirement Eligibility of Supervisors.28 

Figure 10: Profile of Job Series at PEO M&S.29 

Figure 11: Histogram of Age at PEO M&S (FY15).30 

Figure 12: Histogram of Years-Service at PEO M&S (FY15).30 

Figure 13: PEO M&S Retirement Eligibility by Labor Category.31 

Figure 14: PEO M&S Retirement Eligibility of Management.32 

Figure 15: Profile of Job Series at PEO AVN.34 

Figure 16: Histogram of Age at PEO AVN (FY15).35 

Figure 17: Histogram of Years-Service at PEO AVN (FY15).35 

Figure 18: PEO AVN Retirement Eligibility by Labor Category.36 

Figure 19: PEO AVN Retirement Eligibility of Managers.37 

Figure 20: Profile of Job Series at AMRDEC.39 

Figure 21: Histogram of Age at AMRDEC (FY15).40 

Figure 22: Histogram of Years-Service at AMRDEC (FY15).41 

Figure 23: AMRDEC Retirement Eligibility by Labor Category.42 

Figure 24: AMRDEC Retirement Eligibility of Supervisors.43 

Figure 25: Profile of the Job Series at ACC-Redstone.45 

Figure 26: Histogram of the Age at ACC-Redstone.46 

Figure 27: Histogram of the Years-Service at ACC-Redstone.47 

Figure 28: Histogram of the Years-Service of 1102s at ACC-Redstone.47 

Figure 29: ACC-Redstone Retirement Eligibility by Labor Category.48 

Figure 30: ACC-Redstone Retirement Eligibility of Supervisors.49 

Figure 31: Profile of the Job Series Across the Aviation & Missile ME.51 

Figure 32: Histogram of the Age Across the Aviation & Missile ME (FY15).51 

Figure 33: Histogram of the Years-Service Across the Aviation & Missile ME (FY15).52 

Figure 34: Consolidated Summary of Results.53 

Figure 35: Histogram of 1102 Series Age at ACC-Redstone.56 






































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List of Tables 

Table 1: Sample Civilian Personnel Data Extract from DCPDS.14 

Table 2: Sample Civilian Personnel Data Computations.15 





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Chapter 1 - The Manpower Challenge 

As the active Army continues to reduce end strength over fiscal years 2016 and 2017, the 
Army civilian workforce will also experience reductions in strength at proportionate levels 
(Lytell, et al., 2015, p. 143). Army officials have backed off of initial estimates of a 17,000 
reduction in the civilian workforce (between FY 16-17), but have stayed consistent in asserting 
civilian reductions should be expected through attrition, including hiring controls and voluntary 
incentives (Tan, 2015). These reductions are driven in large part by the Budget Control Act 
(BCA) of 2011. Most Army commands implemented hiring restrictions by 2013 and the 
furloughs followed that same year. The BCA continues to force the Army’s workforce to 
become leaner over the next few years. Downsizing is expected through Base Closure and 
Realignment Commission (BRAC), normal attrition, hiring freezes and possible voluntary 
separation incentives such as Voluntary Separation Incentive Pay (VSIP) and Voluntary Early 
Retirement Authority (VERA) (Lytell, et al., 2015). 

History that Shaped the Acquisition Workforce 

A look at the civilian drawdowns of the 1990s offers valuable insight as to what may be 
expected in the upcoming years. During the decade following the end of the Cold War, the 
Department of Defense (DoD) experienced nearly a forty percent decline in the civilian 
workforce. The reductions came about by Base Realignment and Closure (BRAC) and attrition 
through hiring freezes and voluntary retirements, very similar to what is being discussed today. 
Studies from the civilian drawdowns of the 1990s showed that such a methodology is effective, 
but does come with drawbacks. In particular, DoD suffered from imbalances in demographics 



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and skills as well as a much older civilian workforce (Lytell, et al., 2015, pp. 141-142). Most 
commands seek to ensure diversity in the workforce though Human Capital Strategic Plans to 
help spur creativity and innovation. Unfortunately, hiring freezes can make it very challenging 
to maintain the desired blend of demographics when the inflow is constrained. As an example, 
studies showed that DoD civilian clerical and blue-collar workers suffered a disproportionally 
higher attrition rate compared to professional and administrative job series and the median age of 
civilian worker rose from 41 (1989) to 46 (1999) (Lytell, et al., 2015, pp. 141-154). 

One of the other impacts observed from the drawdowns in the 1990s is something that is 
commonly referred to as the “bathtub effect”. As a consequence of hiring restrictions, specific 
age and years of service groups begin to become excluded from the DoD labor pool. Once 
inflow resumes, a histogram of the age and years-service profile in the workforce resembles a 
bathtub showing a relatively high number in youthful and older years, with much fewer in 
between as a consequence of the freeze. Certain functional disciplines were severely impacted 
and displayed noticeable gaps in the Army civilian demographics after hiring picked up after 
2004. One such function was the contracting series (1102s) where there was a noticeable gap 
between eight to eighteen years of service as profiled in 2011 (Allen, Doran, & Westbrook, 

2011, pp. 1,41). Another evident gap was the first line supervisors in the Army Contracting 
Command between the ages of thirty to mid forty as of 2011 (Allen, Doran, & Westbrook, 2011, 
p. 34). Clearly, the reductions of the 1990s created an imbalance in skill and experience and the 
issue was exacerbated by an aging workforce where many become eligible to retire in the next 
few years (Allen, Doran, & Westbrook, 2011, p. 25). 

G-l, command Human Resource Managers and the Office of Personnel Management 
closely monitor attrition rates and keep a watchful eye upon any impending imbalances in 



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skillsets or job series. The VERA, VSIP and retention allowances are tools that are most 
commonly used to help control the desired “shape” of the workforce. VERA and VSIP are tools 
that shape the attrition rates and can be tailored towards specified series or labor classifications 
predicted and determined to be too high in strength. Conversely, the retention allowance serves 
as an attrition tool to provide certain employees the incentive to stay in civilian service if it is 
predicted that the strength in their areas will become dangerously low. Studies have shown that 
these three methods of financial incentives are effective in influencing attrition (Asch, 2003, pp. 
1 - 2 ). 

The Future Challenge 

The challenge to cut the civilian workforce while still accomplishing the goals and 
objectives of a command’s human capital strategic plan is a significant one for the Army’s 
civilian human resource managers. This paper will highlight some of those challenges by taking 
a closer look into the demographics of the U.S. Army Aviation and Missile Materiel Enterprise 
(ME). The Aviation and Missile ME consists of the Aviation and Missile Command (AMCOM), 
the Program Executive Offices (PEO) for both missile and space as well as aviation, the U.S. 
Army Aviation and Missile Research Development and Engineering Center (AMRDEC), and the 
U.S. Army Contracting Command-Redstone (ACC-RSA). These five organizations are all 
centrally located at Redstone Arsenal, Alabama with responsibility for materiel management, 
from concept to combat (U.S. Army Aviation and Missile Life Cycle Command, 2012, pp. 6-7). 

The Problem Statement 

BRAC actions are not currently slated to affect the Redstone area, but could be 
reevaluated in 2017 (Department of Defense, 2014, p. 48). Therefore, the Aviation and Missile 



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ME is bracing for another round of drawdowns through normal attrition (G1 Staff, personal 
communication, 2015). If history is any indication, this means that another “bathtub” is being 
created that will impact the ability to integrate the millennial generation into the Aviation and 
Missile ME. In the meantime, the baby-boomer generation is now leaving the workforce under 
voluntary retirements and potentially exposing the gap in age /service demographics created 
during the 1990s. If this gap was not appropriately filled during hiring actions prior to the recent 
hiring restrictions, there could be a significant supply problem in human resources to meet future 
demands. 

How healthy is the supply of human resources in the Aviation and Missile ME behind the 
baby boomer generation? How aggressive will the Aviation and Missile ME attrition be due to 
voluntary retirements and which job series stand to suffer the most? This paper will address 
those questions and make some inferences about what the future Aviation and Missile ME age 
demographics may look like by the year 2020 as a consequence of limited to no inflow. This 
paper may be used to benefit the human resource managers across the ME who are faced with a 
significant challenge over the next few years. That challenge is to ensure the right number of 
people with the right set of skills and competencies in the right job at the right time (Nataraj, 
Guo, Hall-Partyka, Gates, & Yeung, 2014, p. xi). To complicate the challenge, HR managers 
will be faced with “poaching” of employees between commands (Allen, Doran, & Westbrook, 
2011, p. 71) and must therefore give strong consideration to retention and development actions. 



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Chapter 2 - Literature & Data Review 
RAND Corporation Research Papers 

The challenges associated with human resources over the next few years is no big secret 
to the Department of Defense. Clearly they are concerned with the impacts of supply and 
demand of civilian personnel as evidenced by a significant number of studies they have tasked 
the RAND Corporation to complete. The RAND Corporation is a research organization that 
“develops solutions to public policy challenges to help make communities throughout the world 
safer and more secure, healthier and more prosperous” (Nataraj, Guo, Hall-Partyka, Gates, & 
Yeung, 2014). The data and conclusions from four of these reports were used as a basis to help 
make inferences about the data analyzed as well as conclusions on what the future Aviation and 
Missile ME may look like. 

The Defense Civilian Personnel Data System (DCPDS) 

Human Resource managers across the Aviation and Missile ME use the Defense Civilian 
Personnel Data System (DCPDS) as the warehouse for storing employee information. Each of 
the five organizations provided a raw data file that snapshots the profile of the workforce data in 
DCPDS with all Personally Identifiable Information (PII) removed. This research analyzes this 
data using Excel to produce graphical charts and statistical data to help draw conclusions. 
Human Capital Strategic Plans (HCSP) 

Lessons learned from the drawdowns of the 1990s prompted a DoD decision for the 
civilian acquisition workforce to create a plan that addresses the human resource challenges. In 
2000, the Acquisition 2005 Task Force recommended the development of Human Capital 
Strategic Plans to address the civilian workforce. Specifically, these plans focus upon recruiting, 
hiring, retention, recognition, training and development. Human resource managers have a great 



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hand in writing these plans which offer an excellent understanding of how the organization(s) 
intend to address the future challenges. This researcher was successful in acquiring HCSPs for 
the ACC and AMCOM, but they were not available for the other three organizations. 

U.S. Office of Personnel Management (OPM) Handbooks 

This researcher frequently utilized guidance from OPM resources that offered 
information and the various grade series structure as well as detail on eligibility for voluntary 
retirements. Eligibility rules for voluntary retirement depend upon whether or not the employee 
is covered under the Civil Service Retirement System (CSRS) or the Federal Employees 
Retirement System (FERS). OPM handbooks were used as the primary reference to ensure 
whether an individual was eligible for voluntary retirement or not. Rules were set up in Excel to 
determine eligibility as a function of age and years of service. 

Chapter 3 - Research Methodology 

This research uses a mixed method design of the quantitative and qualitative approach. 
Statistical data was calculated on past human resource numbers through a quantitative method. 
The trends and statistics of past and present day were utilized to help make inferences about the 
future through a qualitative method. 

This researcher frequently sought consultation with each of the five Aviation and Missile 
ME organization’s human resource departments through meetings, e-mails and phone 
conversations. Each organization was kind enough to provide a raw data file in Excel format 
containing needed demographics of their current workforce as of early November 2015. This 
file was stripped of all Personally Identifiable Information (PII) and offered a line item for each 
employee with age, years of service, retirement plan, supervisory status and career program code 
and/or job series. A sample snapshot from the AMRDEC raw data file is shown in Table 1. 



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Table 1 


Sample Civilian Personnel Data Extract from DCPDS 


Pay Plan Perm 

Ocuptnl Srs Perm 

Years of Service 

Age in Years 

Retirement Group Supv Status description 

AR Psn Car Pgm Cd description 

DB 

r 

0899 

4 

24 

FERS 

Non-Supervisory 

Engineers & Scientists (Non-Construction) 

DB 

r 

0899 

7 

26 

FERS 

Non-Supervisory 

Engineers & Scientists (Resources & Construction) 

DB 

r 

0830 

0 

22 

FERS 

Non-Supervisory 

Engineers & Scientists (Non-Construction) 

DB 

r 

0861 

0 

22 

FERS 

Non-Supervisory 

Engineers & Scientists (Non-Construction) 

DB 

r 

0801 

1 

23 

FERS 

Non-Supervisory 

Engineers & Scientists (Non-Construction) 


Note. Only a small subset of the rows and columns of the full table are shown for clarity. Data within is a 
snapshot in time. (Hodges, 2015) 

The software tool used to extract data from DCPDS and create a data report was not 
always the same across each of the five ME organizations. As a consequence, some 
organizations were not able to provide certain attributes that others could. 

Determining the Eligible Retirement Pool 

Analysis was conducted to determine retirement eligibility across the Aviation and 
Missile ME population. Only voluntary retirements were considered using the rules of the 
Federal Employees’ Retirement System (FERS) and Civil Service Retirement System (CSRS), 
which are listed below (Office of Personnel Management, nd): 

FERS: 

a) Of Minimum Retirement Age (MRA) and have at least 30 years of service; or 

b) At least 60 years of age and have at least 20 years of service; or 

c) At least 62 years of age and have at least 5 years of service 

CSRS: 


a) At least 55 years of age and have at least 30 years of service; or 




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b) At least 60 years of age and have at least 20 years of service; or 

c) At least 62 years of age and have at least 5 years of service. 

The Minimum Retirement Age (MRA) as required by FERS was also calculated for each 
employee under the FERS retirement group. MRA is a function of date of birth (Office of 
Personnel Management, nd). The date of birth was one attribute that was not always available 
due to the software differences as described earlier. The lack of data revealing the date of birth 
forced the MRA to be calculated based on age. A slight error in data is therefore recognized. 
Given that the data was secured in early November, the line items with actual birthdates of late 
November and December are off by one year. However, the resultant adjustment to MRA is 
only 2 months between years. Therefore, the error is considered negligible. A new column was 
then added to specify eligibility as a function of MRA, age, years of service and retirement 
system. The process was repeated to offer a look five years from now by adding five years to 
age and years of service (hereinafter referred to as the +5 LOOK test). A snapshot of the added 
columns is shown in Table 2. 

Table 2 

Sample Civilian Personnel Data Computations 


Years of Service 

Age in Years 

Retirement Group 

Supv Status description 

Ar Psn Car Pgm Cd description 

MRA 

RETIRE EUG? 

+5 LOOK 

10 

58 

FERS 

Supervisor or Manager 

General Administration & Management 

56 

NO-YOS 

YES 


Note. Only a small subset of the rows and columns of the full table are shown for clarity. Data within is a 
snapshot in time. (Hodges, 2015) 

As noted in the table, if the employee was determined to be ineligible, a descriptor 
indicating which logic test failed is provided. For example, the employee in Table 2 presently 



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has an age that exceeded the MRA. However, the test for retirement failed because the needed 
years of service for this MRA is 30. In five years, the employee will be older than 62 and only 
need 5 years of service to become eligible. Therefore, he/she passes the “+5 LOOK” test. 

Predicting Retirements 

A study by the Bureau of Labor Statistics asserts that individuals aged 55 and older are 
staying in the workforce longer. Participation rates of individuals 55 and older have been on a 
steady increase from a 30.3% participation in the workforce in 1985 to 37.2% in 2005 (Mossisa 
& Hippie, 2006, p. 36). These statistics show that the relationship between retirement eligibility 
and attrition are changing with time. 

To forecast predicted attrition rates associated with retirement, this research studies 
historical data to help make future predictions. An Excel data report was received from 
AMCOM that captured all retirements within the command between FY05-FY15. This time 
span capturing 3,614 employees was considered sufficient to understand potential trends in 
voluntary retirement attrition. A study of the trends showed surprising results as depicted in 
Figure 1. 


70.0 

60.0 

50.0 

£ 40.0 

re 

<u 

> 30.0 

20.0 

10.0 

n n 





























-•-AGE 

-•-YEARS SERVICE 




















2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 

Fiscal Years 


Figure 1. Trends over the past ten years showing how the average age and years of service for 
voluntary retirements have changed in the AMCOM. (Hodges, 2015) 








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As can be seen in Figure 1, the trends do show a slight increase from year to year. In FY 
2005, the average age of separation was 60. In FY 2015, the average age of separation was 62.5. 
The average across these eleven years was 60.6 years. Also noteworthy is that the years of 
service creeps slightly higher as a function of time just as the age. 


A cumulative distribution of the 3,614 voluntary retirements as a function of age was 
plotted using Excel. A cumulative Weibull distribution was used to fit the curve shape to the 
maximum extent possible. Results are displayed in Figure 2 below. 



Figure 2. Cumulative distribution on personnel age of those who opted for voluntary retirement 
between FY05-15. The figure shows how the Weibull distribution function was created to best 
fit historical data. These Weibull parameters were used to make predictions on when personnel 
would opt for retirements in the future. (Hodges, 2015) 





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The Weibull curve allows for rough predictions on attrition rates of eligible employees 
for voluntary retirement. It is noteworthy, that this technique is merely a rough estimate under 
the assumption that the future population will behave as a sample population did over the past 
eleven years. The Weibull curve is not a perfect correlation to actual data with a maximum error 
of 8.5% (under-predicting). Therefore, emphasis should not be placed on this technique 
providing a quantifiable answer, but an inference towards a “generalized understanding. For 
example, consider a pool of ten eligible employees who are all 58 years old. The Weibull 
method predicts that 31%, or with the error, somewhere between two and four will actually opt 
for retirement. The “generalized understanding” from this example should be an expectation that 
the majority of this pool will likely opt to remain in the workforce until half have retired by age 
61 and all have retired by 79. 

Forecasting the Supply of Human Resources 

According to Mathis, Jackson & Valentine (2014), the supply of human resources in a 
given future year is equal to: 

Current Staff Level - Projected Outflows + Projected Inflows 

As discussed earlier, the BCA is pressing the need to reduce the civilian workforce. Therefore, 
projected outflows will exceed the projected inflows over the next five years. In considering the 
projected outflows, it is noteworthy there may be several sources (i.e. turnover, terminations, 
deaths, etc.). Likewise, there are many sources for inflows (i.e. internal transfers, external hires, 
promotions, etc.) (Mathis, Jackson, & Valentine, 2014, p. 52). 

In making forecasts under this study, this researcher makes an initial underlying 
assumption that inflows are frozen over the next five years. As the workforce ages, estimates will 



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then be made regarding potential losses due to voluntary retirements. All other sources of 
outflow will be assumed to follow historical rates (see following paragraph for elaboration). A 
forecasted attrition rate will then be calculated for a future date five years from now. Labor 
supply in late 2020 can then be forecasted and compared to target strength numbers to test the 
“frozen inflow” assumption. The “frozen inflow” assumption is expected to be proven 
unfeasible (due to a relatively old workforce). If determined unfeasible, qualitative assessments 
will be made on the quantity of internal transfers using the RAND studies. In consideration of 
transfers in, a final qualitative assessment on the potential for external hiring action will be made 
in order to achieve future targeted strength levels. When an organization’s targeted strength 
was unavailable, it was assumed to be commensurate with the weighted average across the 
organizations that did report (-13% reduction in strength by FY19). 

As mentioned previously, the other reasons for outflow will assume to follow historical 
rates. This researcher used data from the total AMCOM population to make inferences on total 
attrition. Figure 3 below displays a graphical representation that substantiates the workforce 
truly is aging evidenced by the rise in voluntary retirements from year to year. 



Figure 3. Number of personnel who opted for voluntary retirement as a function of fiscal year 
within AMCOM. Percentages shown depict the upper and lower bounds of what voluntary 
retirements could be of the total attrition in fiscal year 2020. (Hodges, 2015) 




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According to the FY15 AMCOM Human Capital Fact Book, in 2015 voluntary retirements 
accounted for 39% of the total attrition. Figure 3 suggests that rate will not stay constant and 
will rise. If all other reasons for departure remain at a relatively constant rate, the data above 
infers that voluntary retirements could feasibly jump between 44% - 52% of the total attrition by 
2020. For conservatism, the research assumes that voluntary retirements are 45% of the total 
attrition in 2020. 

In addition to the total strength, the assessment will also take a close look at specific 
skillsets or job series that the organization considers as a core competency. As the workforce 
ages, the analysis will identify any job series and management positions that are forecast to be 
significantly impacted due to voluntary retirements. Conclusions can then be made about the 
future supply and demand rates for specific functions. Furthermore, a disproportionately low 
attrition rate of a specific series compared to others offers insight into VERA or VSIP potential 
for that specific labor category. 

Research Hypothesis 

The expectation from reading a number of commentaries and published studies is that the 
civilian acquisition workforce is not currently ideally postured in age and years of service 
(experience) to meet the future demands of the mission. The underlying assumption is that large 
gaps in certain age groups create a “bathtub effect” in age and years-service histograms. This 
problem will be exacerbated by the current and near term hiring restrictions. As the baby 
boomer generation continues to age and leave the workforce under voluntary retirements, the 



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“bathtub effect” begins to inflict severe challenges on organizations as a consequence of a sparse 
pool of candidates to replace the retired workforce. 

Limitations of the Study 

This study focuses on the Redstone Arsenal / Huntsville, AL geographic location of the 
Aviation and Missile ME. Recognizing that organizations such as the ACC and AMCOM have 
employees all across the country, it is important to note that the data herein only captures the ME 
employees in the Redstone location. Statistics taken from the Redstone locations as per this study 
are not an accurate representation of the commands as a whole. For example, the number of 
supervisory positions eligible for retirement at AMCOM-Redstone was found to be 57% in 2020 
compared to 45% in 2020 across all of AMCOM. Similarly, a warning was received that the 
demographics (age, years-service and job series distribution) for ACC-Redstone are very much 
different for the ACC as a whole (ACC-G1, personal communication, November 5, 2015). 
Therefore, inferences about the higher echelon commands based on statistical data from this 
study should not be made. 

Due to sensitivity of Personally Identifiable Information (PII), birthdates could not be 
provided within the data files provided by HR managers. As a consequence, only employee age 
was provided as of the date the report was generated. In the case of the data file from PEO 
M&S, the retirement plan could not be provided and eligibility had to be determined under the 
assumption each employee was in the FERS program. As such, a slight error is recognized in 
retirement eligibility rates and attrition numbers presented herein. Numbers from this study 
should therefore be considered as approximate estimates that are based on historical trends. 
Furthermore, the inferences and conclusions made by this study are based upon a single snapshot 
in time (data reports from DCPDS). Demographics will obviously not be constant since inflow 



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and outflow of personnel continue to fluctuate. Therefore, the conclusions of this study can 
easily change as a function of time and would require frequent periodic updates to ensure 
accuracy of predictions. 

The Aviation and Missile ME should not be considered an all-encompassing study of 
human resource challenges in the Redstone civilian workforce. There are many other crucial 
organizations across “Team Redstone” that play vital roles in support of Army acquisition 
initiatives. The paper will only focus upon the Aviation and Missile ME due to the expansive 
and cumbersome scope of analyzing each and every partner. The focus upon the Aviation and 
Missile ME bounds the analysis, and points to a need for future research to supplement this 
paper. 

Chapter 4 - Research Findings 


The Aviation and Missile Command (AMCOM) - Redstone 

The AMCOM has a mission to “Equip, Enable, Integrate and Sustain Aviation and Missile 
systems and provide calibration and repair support for all Army TMDE” (U.S. Army Aviation 
and Missile Life Cycle Command, 2012, p. 2). To accomplish this mission, there is a heavy 
reliance upon material maintenance and supply mangers. Figure 4 depicts a profile of the present 
day workforce at AMCOM Redstone by labor series. 



AVIATION AND MISSILE MATERIEL ENTERPRISE DEMOGRAPHICS 


23 



Figure 4. Profile of the various job series at AMCOM-Redstone. (Hodges, 2015) 


AMCOM-Redstone is faced with the challenge of reducing their Table of Distribution 
and Allowance (TDA) by 14.5% between fiscal years 2016 and 2019 (AMCOM-G8, personal 
communication, November 2, 2015). The challenge AMCOM faces is to reduce their TDA 
while maintaining their crucial core competencies of acquisition logistics, field and sustainment 
maintenance, sustainment logistics, calibration and repair of test measurement and diagnostic 
equipment, and foreign military sales. In addition to ensuring core competencies are maintained, 
G-l also endeavors to keep the proper mix of diversity, enhance operational and institutional 
knowledge across the workforce and maintain the crucial skills of material maintenance and 
supply management. AMCOM G-l fully recognizes the increases in retirement eligibility and 
the threat posed to their crucial skillsets. The AMCOM Human Capital Plan infers that 
recruitment will maintain the proper strength in crucial skillsets (U.S. Army Aviation and 
Missile Life Cycle Command, 2012, pp. 11-47). 

Analysis of data received from DCPDS included a total strength of 2,563 employees at 
the Redstone Arsenal location with an average age of 48.6 and average years of service equal to 






AVIATION AND MISSILE MATERIEL ENTERPRISE DEMOGRAPHICS 


24 


14 years. This population excludes AMCOM employees outside of the Redstone / Huntsville 
area (34% of AMCOM work in Huntsville / Redstone according to the FY15 AMCOM Human 
Capital Fact Book). 



Figure 5. Histogram of age at AMCOM-Redstone (FY15). (Hodges, 2015) 

The histogram (Figure 5) shows a high percentage of the workforce reaching retirement 
eligible ages. It is noteworthy that the age distribution histogram for AMCOM clearly displays 
the “bathtub effect” (note ages 35-44 in Figure 5) in the age groups that were most impacted by 
the hiring freezes of the 1990s. Although AMCOM has worked diligently to close this gap 
during the post 9/11 build-ups, evidence of the earlier freeze still remains. The average age of 
the AMCOM-Redstone workforce is 48.6 years and a median age of 51. 

AMCOM G-l has worked hard to reduce the average age of the workforce over the past 
few years. Figure 6 shows the downward trends and indicates management is taking action to 
prevent excessive “graying of the workforce” as mentioned in the 2015 RAND study (Lytell, et 
al., 2015, p. 141). The trends shown in Figure 6 serves as evidence that AMCOM is making 
great strides in accomplishing their goal of diversity (in age) as defined by their Human Capital 
Strategic Plan (U.S. Army Aviation and Missile Life Cycle Command, 2012, p. 19). 



AVIATION AND MISSILE MATERIEL ENTERPRISE DEMOGRAPHICS 


25 



Figure 6. AMCOM average age as a function of time. (U.S. Army Aviation and Missile 

Life Cycle Command, 2012, p. 40) 

The years of service among the AMCOM-Redstone population is shown in Figure 7 

below. 



Figure 7. Histogram of years-service at AMCOM-Redstone (FY15). (Hodges, 2015) 


With Figure 7, the “bath-tub effect” is once again present with respect to years of 
government service (note years 16-25). The average years of service in AMCOM-Redstone is 
only 14 years. Considering the disparity with the average age of 48.6, it is possible that 
AMCOM-Redstone may have hired a number of veterans, or possibly in-sourced many of their 



















AVIATION AND MISSILE MATERIEL ENTERPRISE DEMOGRAPHICS 


26 


contractor workforce. Noteworthy in Figure 7 is that 6-10 years is the largest population bin, 
which would have been during the build-ups between 9/11 and sequestration. 

The AMCOM workforce is a blend of personnel under both the CSRS and FERS 
retirement systems. Considering the eligibility rules as they apply to each employee, analysis 
indicates that only 16% of the present workforce is eligible for voluntary retirement. Under the 
“no inflow” assumption as described earlier, those eligible for voluntary retirement increases to 
37% in five years. 



Figure 8. AMCOM-Redstone retirement eligibility as a function of labor category. 

(Hodges, 2015) 

Two of AMCOM’s critical skillsets which comprise the preponderance of their total 
workforce is analyzed in Figure 8. Under the “no inflow assumption”, those eligible for 
voluntary retirement increases to 35% and 32% for each skillset respectively in five years. Using 
the retirement predictor technique as described earlier, estimates for these two labor categories 
suggest that roughly 23% of the material managers and 21% of the present population of supply 
managers will opt to voluntarily retire five years from now. Under the original assumption stated 
earlier (voluntary retirements could be -45% of total attrition), this would suggest that an 
additional 28% of material managers could be lost due to total attrition by 2020. Given these 















AVIATION AND MISSILE MATERIEL ENTERPRISE DEMOGRAPHICS 


27 


numbers are significantly higher than the target TDA reduction of 14.5%, it means that roughly 
300 material managers and 250 supply managers must be brought on board AMCOM-Huntsville 
between the beginning of FY16 and the end of FY20. By inference, AMCOM is highly likely to 
need to continue recruitment in these two labor categories over the next five years. Retirement 
eligibility five years from now across all job series in AMCOM ranges between 20% - 50%. 
Given that there were no job series reductions predicted to less than 14.5%, tools to influence 
increased outflow such as VERA or VSIP should not be required. Some retirement eligibility 
percentages associated with unique job series are significantly higher than target reduction 
numbers. The higher rates of retirement eligibility suggest that retention allowance and/or 
recruitment will be required. For example, the Legal job series population is presently at 29% 
eligibility for retirement. In five years, that number increases to 57%. The retirement predictor 
method suggests that 45% of the present population in legal will opt to retire within the next five 
years. Although legal represents a very small portion of the AMCOM population (2%), the 
personnel in this labor classification will likely experience much turnover in the coming years if 
not financial opportunity through promotions or possible retention allowances. 

Positions classified as supervisory at AMCOM-Redstone were also analyzed. The data 
shows that 13% of the workforce are currently classified as supervisor or manager. Of that pool, 
21% are currently eligible for retirement with growth to 57% by 2020 (see Figure 9). Retirement 
prediction methodology suggests a number closer to 34% loss by 2020. A predicted attrition of 
34% of the present day supervisors is tied for the highest rate (with PEO M&S) across the 
Aviation & Missile ME. Opportunities for career advancement will certainly exist in AMCOM 


for the pool that remains. 



AVIATION AND MISSILE MATERIEL ENTERPRISE DEMOGRAPHICS 


28 


120 % 

100 % 

80% 

60% 

40% 

20% 

0 % 



Supe rvisors (2015) Supe rviso rs (2020) 

■ Uneligible ■ Eligible 


Figure 9. AMCOM-Redstone retirement eligibility of the supervisory positions. 

(Hodges, 2015) 


AMCOM is currently under a “one for two” rule as directed by AMC 
Commander, General Via (AMCOM-G1, personal communication, January 25, 2016). Under 
“one for two”, an external hire is permitted only when two positions are vacated. Given that 
AMCOM is not going to want to reduce their available positions any more than they have to, 
“one for two” essentially forces the hand of recruitment to be more transfers than new hires. Of 
the additional 550 material and supply managers assumed to be needed over the next five years, 
a simple calculation suggests that roughly 100 would be new hires and the balance of 450 would 
be needed transfers from another government organization in order to yield the 14.5% reduction 
in strength. The key takeaway is not the value of the numbers themselves given the recognition 
that there are many assumptions therein. Instead, the takeaway is how high the relative demand 
will likely be for transfers in order for AMCOM-Huntsville to accomplish their mission as long 
as the “one for two” rule stays in effect. In total, roughly 1000 employees will need to be hired 
on in order to achieve the targeted reduction strength. 









AVIATION AND MISSILE MATERIEL ENTERPRISE DEMOGRAPHICS 


29 


Program Executive Office for Missiles & Space (PEO M&S) 

The Program Executive Office for Missiles and Space along with the subordinate Project 
Management Offices plan to reduce their human capital strength by approximately 10% between 
FY16 and FY19 (PEO M&S G-l, personal communication, December 29, 2015). The general 
administrative group (300 series) comprises 67% of their labor population and is clearly their 
crucial core competency as they depend upon matrix personnel from the AMRDEC for the 
engineers and the AMCOM for supply and logistics specialists (Figure 10). 



Figure 10. Profile of the various job series at PEO M&S. (Hodges, 2015) 

The average age of PEO M&S employees is 48 with 16 years of service. These numbers track 
closely with the averages of the Material Enterprise. The age histogram is somewhat bimodal in 
nature (Figure 11) given two different sets of normalized distributions in shape. The “bathtub 
effect” is clearly evident in the age histogram noting the gaps in ages 35-44. Likewise, there is a 
similar gap in years of service between years 11-25 (Figure 12). 






AVIATION AND MISSILE MATERIEL ENTERPRISE DEMOGRAPHICS 


30 


120 

100 

80 

60 

40 

20 

0 

Figure 11. Histogram of age at PEO M&S (FY15). (Hodges, 2015) 

140 

120 

100 

80 

60 

40 

20 

0 

0-5 6-10 11-15 16-20 21-25 26-30 30+ 

Figure 12. Histogram of years-service at PEO M&S (FY15). (Hodges, 2015) 

The “bathtub effect” in both age and years of service is evident in Figures 11 and 12, likely as a 
consequence of the 1990s hiring freezes. The bimodal nature of the distribution makes the 
averages somewhat deceiving when making predictions on future changes in human resources. 
This may explain why PEO M&S has the highest amount of personnel eligible for retirement in 
2020 (40%) across the Material Enterprise even though their age and years of service averages 



.■I. 


i 



l 


i 


<25 25-29 30-34 35-39 4044 45-49 5054 55-59 6064 65+ 




AVIATION AND MISSILE MATERIEL ENTERPRISE DEMOGRAPHICS 


31 


are commensurate with the other organizations. In fairness to PEO M&S, a more experienced 
workforce is necessary given their mission as described in the following paragraph. 

A closer look at the primary labor series shows a high dependency on the 343 and 301 
categories. The 301s are typically the more seasoned veterans who have developed enough skills 
and knowledge through years of experience to be qualified to provide administrative and 
management functions over a major defense acquisition program. The 343s serve as analysts 
and advisors to the organizational management (U.S. Office of Personnel Management, 2009). 
Figure 13 below shows a retirement eligibility rate commensurate with the 40% organizational 
number discussed earlier. Specifically, approximately 40% of the 343s and 301s become eligible 


by 2020. Although the 340s represent a much smaller percentage (4%) of the workforce, their 


eligibility jumps to 65% by 2020. 


PEO M&S RETIREMENT ELIGIBILITY BY LABOR CATEGORY 


120 % 



343 SERIES 343 SERIES 301 SERIES 301 SERIES 340 SERIES 340 SERIES 
(2015) (2020) (2015) (2020) (2015) (2020) 


■ ELIGIBLE 

■ UNE LEGIBLE 


Figure 13. PEO M&S retirement eligibility as a function of labor category. (Hodges, 2015) 
The retirement prediction method infers a number closer to 25% of the 343 and 301s who 


are likely to opt to take the voluntary retirement. This method also predicts a number of 























AVIATION AND MISSILE MATERIEL ENTERPRISE DEMOGRAPHICS 


32 


approximately 40% of the 340s will be lost through voluntary retirement. The 25% core 
competency loss is commensurate with typical retirement attrition across the Material Enterprise. 
However, should PEO M&S desire to retain the 343 function, developmental initiatives for new 
entries or existing personnel and/or retention incentives will need to be considered. 

A closer look at the managers is depicted in Figure 14. In this case, the managers and 
supervisors are defined as all NH-IV, GS-14 and GS-15 level personnel. As discussed in 
Chapter 3, raw data reports received from organizations were not always consistent due to 
software differences. Supervisory classification was not available for the PEO M&S data which 


forced the analysis to center only upon NH-4, GS-14 and GS-15 (referred to herein as managers). 


120 % 

100 % 

80% 

60% 

40% 

20 % 

0 % 



MANAGERS (2015) 



49% 


MANAGERS (2020) 


■ ELIGIBLE 

■ UNELEGIBLE 


Figure 14. PEO M&S retirement eligibility of management. (Hodges, 2015) 


By 2020, 51% of the current pool of management will be eligible for retirement. This number is 
right at the average mark across the Material Enterprise. An interesting note here is that 
although eligibility is at normal levels for management (average is 55% across the ME), the age 
and years-service of this pool are comparatively higher than the others. The retirement 
prediction method infers somewhere around 34% of this pool of eligible employees are likely to 







AVIATION AND MISSILE MATERIEL ENTERPRISE DEMOGRAPHICS 


33 


take the voluntary retirement making it tied for the highest (along with AMCOM-Redstone) 
across the Aviation & Missile ME. 

According to the RAND study, Army Acquisition Support (assumed here to be 
commensurate with PEO M&S) only reduce their strength by roughly 3% between FY13-17 
under a hiring freeze. Under the RAND study, a hiring freeze was defined to be no new external 
hires, but transfers into the organization at historical rates. The conclusion from this study was 
that Army Acquisition typically secures much more of their workforce through transfers from 
other organizations (Nataraj et al., 2014). If PEO M&S follows consistently with the 
conclusions of the RAND study, then their needed 10% reduction in strength could be 
accomplished without any new external hires if they so choose and the trends of the past are true 
for the future. The PEO is not under any hiring restrictions provided they follow their targeted 
strength levels. At stake are an estimated 125 crucial 301 and 343 positions that will need to be 
filled assuming voluntary retirements account for 45% of total losses (as discussed earlier) 
between FY16-20. Based on personal conversations with PEO M&S G-l, hiring actions will not 
likely only encompass transfers as human resources typically takes advantage of veterans 
preference hiring actions as well. The data leads towards the conclusion that there will still be 
some external hiring actions in the future for PEO M&S in order to acquire 301 and 343s, but not 
many. Analysis also shows that an estimated 21 crucial 1101 positions will need to be filled. 

The likelihood is strong that the qualifications and skills associated with this type of position will 
mean targeting a transfer from the ACC. Total estimated inflow need was calculated to be 
roughly 190. The fact that PEO M&S will have more than their fair share of management 
positions open in the near future helps provide even more incentive for personnel from the other 


organizations to make a transfer. 



AVIATION AND MISSILE MATERIEL ENTERPRISE DEMOGRAPHICS 


34 


Finally, a look across all job series reveals that none are abnormally low with regards to 
expected attrition rates from voluntary retirement. Furthermore, the attrition rate due to expected 
retirements over the next five years are significant compared to the targeted reductions in 
strength (25% retirement attrition vs 10% strength reduction). Projected overall attrition is an 
indicator that reduced human resource strength may be achieved without the need for a VERA or 
VSIP. 

The Program Executive Office for Aviation (PEO AVN) 

The Program Executive Office for Aviation along with the subordinate Project Management 
Offices thereof seek to reduce their human capital strength by approximately 8% between FY16 
and FY 19 (PEO AVN G-l, personal communication, December 29, 2015). Like PEO M&S, the 
general administrative group (300 series) comprises 67% of the population and is clearly their 
crucial core competency. One difference with PEO M&S is that PEO AVN is not totally 
dependent upon the AMRDEC for engineering as 15% (with 12% being 0801 and 3% various 
other 0800 series) of the core workforce is of the 0800 series engineering function. The 1101 
business function is of comparable strength (Figure 15). 



Figure 15. Profile of the various job series at PEO AVN. (Hodges, 2015) 









AVIATION AND MISSILE MATERIEL ENTERPRISE DEMOGRAPHICS 


35 


The average age of the PEO AVN employee is 51 with 16.4 years of service, the highest of any 

organization within the Aviation and Missile Material Enterprise. The age histogram shown in 

Figure 16 indicates the older workforce. 

160 
140 
120 
100 
80 
60 
40 
20 
0 

Figure 16. Histogram of age at PEO AVN (FY15). (Hodges, 2015) 



<25 25-29 30-34 35-39 40-44 45-49 5054 55-59 6064 65+ 



Figure 17. Histogram of years-service at PEO AVN (FY15). (Hodges, 2015) 


The histogram depicting PEO AVN years of service (Figure 17) helps to explain why PEO 
AVN has the oldest workforce in the Material Enterprise, yet does not have the highest 




AVIATION AND MISSILE MATERIEL ENTERPRISE DEMOGRAPHICS 


36 


retirement eligibility rates. In contrast to the older skew in the age histogram, the years of 
service is skewed towards less time in civilian service. This infers many personnel who leave 
military service in Army aviation are taking civilian 300 series program manager positions. PEO 
AVN also shows the apparent “bathtub effect” (Figure 17) with respect to experience from the 
hiring freezes pre 9/11. 

The retirement assessment across the primary job series shows an equally distributed retirement 
eligibility (Figure 18). As such, there are no specific job series at risk of being 
disproportionately weakened due to voluntary retirements. The likelihood of conducting a 
VERA or VS IP in order to balance out the desired workforce profile appears very low. The 
retirement prediction method infers that of the total eligible population, approximately 28% will 
likely opt to select the retirement option by 2020. This percentage is the highest across the 
Aviation & Missile ME. However, averaged over a five year period, this equates to losing 
approximately 29 personnel per year. Using historical data from fiscal years 2012-2015, the 
average loss per year due to retirements was 13 (PEO AVN G-l, personal communication, 
November 5, 2015). Should all other loss categories remain constant, this would bump 
retirements to 46% of PEO AVN total future attrition compared to -29% in the original numbers. 


Similar to the rise described in the AMCOM discussion, the outflow rates will be on the rise. 


120 % 

100 % 

80% 

60% 

40% 

20 % 

0% 


lllllllll 


56 % 


79 % 


56 % 


88 % 


58 % 


77 % 


61 % 


88% 


58 % 


301 301 346 346 343 343 1101 1101 801 801 

SERIES SERIES SERIES SERIES SERIES SERIES SERIES SERIES SERIES SERIES 

(2015) (2020) (2015) (2020) (2015) (2020) (2015) (2020) (2015) (2020) 


■ ELIGIBLE 

■ UNELEGIBLE 


























AVIATION AND MISSILE MATERIEL ENTERPRISE DEMOGRAPHICS 


37 


Figure 18. PEO AVN retirement eligibility as a function of labor category. (Hodges, 2015) 


An evaluation of PEO AVN management is shown in Figure 19. For purposes of this 
organization, management was defined as all NH-IV positions. As discussed in Chapter 3, raw 
data reports received from organizations were not always consistent due to software differences. 
Supervisory classification was not available for the PEO AVN data which forced the analysis to 
center only upon NH-4s (referred to herein as managers). The data showed that there was 
nothing abnormal about the retirement potential for management in PEO AVN when compared 
to other organizations across the Aviation & Missile ME. 



Figure 19. PEO AVN retirement eligibility of the management positions. (Hodges, 2015) 


The retirement prediction method infers that a number closer to 32% of the management 
population will opt for retirement by 2020, which is within the average of the ME. 

As with PEO M&S, PEO AVN is under the Assistant Secretary of Army for Acquisition, 
Logistics and Technology (ASA(ALT)). Therefore, it is assumed that outflow predictions will 
be commensurate with Acquisition Support of the Nataraj et al. (2014) report. Specifically, it is 







AVIATION AND MISSILE MATERIEL ENTERPRISE DEMOGRAPHICS 


38 


expected that hiring will be at 40% of the historical levels (Nataraj, Hanser, Camm, & Yeats, 
2014, p. 34) to meet future demands and authorized levels of strength. The inflow is expected to 
be mostly transfers from other government organizations and specialized hiring actions for 
veterans as it has been in the past. 

PEO AVN is currently below their authorized strength levels. As such, they are 
permitted to hire in order to reach authorized levels, but only with approval from higher 
headquarters (PEO AVN G-l, personal communication, February 3, 2016). Considering the 
predicted outflows in voluntary retirements, it is apparent that some degree of inflow will be 
required to reach targeted FY19 strength numbers. Under the assumption that voluntary 
retirements will be 45% of the total outflow, PEO AVN is looking at having to replace roughly 
250 personnel total to reach a strength in 2020, 8% less than in FY16. The challenges 
associated with ensuring age diversity while also selecting experience to feed the 301 population 
is a very similar one with PEO M&S. As with PEO M&S, PEO AVN will likely continue to fill 
the preponderance of 301s and 346s with a blend of retired military aviators with acquisition 
experience and transfers from other organizations. The 301 and 346 vacancies to be filled are 
estimated to be approximately 120. The 800 and 1102 series is expected to be a different story 
given the unique qualification and skill requirements for positions of this nature. The series of 
engineers, estimated at roughly 24 positions needed, will likely need to be fed by transfers from 
the AMRDEC. The series of 1102s, estimated at roughly 30 positions needed, will likely be 
transfers from the ACC. 

A final noteworthy point of the PEO AVN population is that although there is no 
“bathtub effect”, there is a significant number of the population above age 50. If the 250 
personnel brought on board over the next 5 years does not impact the age profile of PEO AVN, 



AVIATION AND MISSILE MATERIEL ENTERPRISE DEMOGRAPHICS 


39 


then nearly half of the workforce that remains are eligible for retirement. The challenge to 
reduce in strength by 8% should be an easy one for PEO AVN. The real challenge will be to 
safeguard against reducing any more than 8%. 


The Aviation and Missile Research Development and Engineering Center (AMRDEC) 

The AMRDEC reports to the Research Development and Engineering Command 
(RDECOM) with command headquarters in Aberdeen Proving Ground, MD. The command has 
a mission of ensuring decisive capabilities for unified land operations to empower the Army, the 
joint warfighter and our nation now and through 2040 (US Army Research Development and 
Engineering Command, 2015). As the acronym implies, the AMRDEC provides a crucial 
technical function unique to aviation and missile initiatives to the Material Enterprise. The data 
considered herein applies only to the AMRDEC community located in the Huntsville / Redstone 
area and not the RDECOM as a whole. 

As evidenced by Figure 20 below, the engineers are clearly the crucial function of the 
organization comprising 84% of the workforce. Many of these engineers directly support the 
developmental projects and sustainment of PEO Aviation and PEO Missiles and Space managed 
initiatives. 






AVIATION AND MISSILE MATERIEL ENTERPRISE DEMOGRAPHICS 


40 


Figure 20. Profile of the various job series at AMRDEC. (Hodges, 2015) 

The average age of the AMRDEC is 47 years old with a median of 49 years making them 
tied with ACC-Redstone for the youngest organization across the Material Enterprise. It is 
noteworthy that the term “young” here should only be considered as relative to the Aviation and 
Missile Material Enterprise. In comparison, the median age of those employed in the United 
States in 2014 was 42.3 according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics (United States Department of 
Labor, 2015) which implies that AMRDEC is really not that young from a more global 
perspective. 



Figure 21. Histogram of age at AMRDEC (FY15). (Hodges, 2015) 


Common with AMCOM and the two PEOs, AMRDEC age histogram is skewed towards an 
older workforce (Figure 21). There are over twice as many people in the 50-54 band compared 
to any band below the age of 45. Also noticeable is a small “bathtub effect” in the 40-44 age 
band which may well be the consequence of the hiring freezes of the 1990s. Any future hiring 




AVIATION AND MISSILE MATERIEL ENTERPRISE DEMOGRAPHICS 


41 


freezes as imposed by RDECOM will impose a serious challenge in any attempt to move 
towards a more equal distribution in age. 

The average number of years of service in AMRDEC is 16 which is close to the average of 
the Aviation & Missile ME. The histogram depicted in Figure 22 shows a typical “bath-tub 
effect” in experience between years 16-25. The fact that the AMRDEC employee average age is 
the lowest of the ME organizations, yet has time in service comparable to other ME 
organizations indicates that AMRDEC has hired more employees out of college than the other 
organizations. As discussed earlier, being able to continue hiring the younger generation could 
be challenged by the need to reduce TDA. 

800 
700 
600 
500 
400 
300 
200 
100 
0 

0-5 6-10 11-15 16-20 21-25 26-30 30+ 

Figure 22. Histogram of years-service at AMRDEC (FY15). (Hodges, 2015) 



A look at the potential of losing specific labor categories to attrition is shown by Figure 23. 
The crucial engineering function shows retirement eligibility rates which are slightly below the 
average observed among the other four organizations. The population of engineers move to a 
33% retirement eligibility by 2020 is not quite as severe as the 36% weighted average across the 



AVIATION AND MISSILE MATERIEL ENTERPRISE DEMOGRAPHICS 


42 


ME. The retirement prediction method suggests a number closer to 20% of the present 
engineering population will opt to take the voluntary retirement by 2020. Although there is no 
serious threat to retirement attrition of engineers, the future predicted retirement eligibility 
associated with the General Administration is relatively high at nearly half the population 


eligible by 2020. 


120 % 



(2015) (2020) (2015) (2020) (2015) (2020) 

■ UNELIGIBLE ■ ELIGIBLE 


Figure 23. AMRDEC retirement eligibility as a function of labor category. (Hodges, 2015) 


By 2020, 46% of the current population of general administrators become retirement eligible. 
The retirement prediction methodology suggests a number closer to 33% of the current 
population of general administrators will opt to select the voluntary retirement option. This labor 
category only comprises 3% of the total population. However, with constraints imposed on the 
inflow of personnel, the future general administration strength deserves attention by AMRDEC 
Human Resources in order to maintain strength at proportionate levels. 

An analysis of all positions in the AMRDEC classified as “Supervisory” is shown in Table 
24. 56% of the current population of supervisors become retirement eligible by 2020. The 
retirement prediction methodology suggests a number closer to 27% will opt to select the 





















AVIATION AND MISSILE MATERIEL ENTERPRISE DEMOGRAPHICS 43 


voluntary retirement option. The disparity between predicted attrition and eligibility may be 
explained by the fact that a very large percentage (54%) of the eligible pool in 2020 are below 
the typical retirement age of 61. A 27% predicted attrition of the supervisors in 2020 is close to 
the average across the Aviation and Missile Material Enterprise. However, a 56% eligibility 
pool is above the Material Enterprise average. Although there may be no serious threats to 
supervisor attrition in 2020 in the AMRDEC, the risk of greater-than-average attrition rises 
steadily over the subsequent years thereafter. 


120 % 

100 % 

80% 

60% 

40% 

20% 

0 % 



Supe rvisors (2015) Supe rvisors (2020) 

■ UNELIGIBLE ■ ELIGIBLE 


Figure 24. AMRDEC retirement eligibility of the supervisory positions. (Hodges, 2015) 


The target TDA reductions between now and 2019 were not provided by the AMRDEC. 
However, inferences can be made in consideration of a few facts. For one, the AMRDEC is 
currently working to address a situation of being over their approved human resource strength 
(commonly referred to as over-hires). AMRDEC appears to be working to close this gap as 
evidenced by a “six to one” rule in place for bringing on board employees outside AMRDEC. 


Under this rule, six positions have to be eliminated for every one employee hired that comes 
from outside of the organization. The “six to one” rule is essentially a hiring freeze in an attempt 







AVIATION AND MISSILE MATERIEL ENTERPRISE DEMOGRAPHICS 


44 


to reduce to authorized strength levels. The RAND study suggests that hiring at 50% of what has 
historically been done reduces the engineering community by approximately 10% and a hiring 
freeze just over 20% by 2017 (Nataraj, Hanser, Camm, & Yeats, 2014, p. 37). However, the 
study does not mention the over-hire consideration. Given that “six to one” is still in place 
today, it appears AMRDEC has targeted a total reduction of -20% in order to resolve the 
overhire situation. A number in this neighborhood stands to reason given an expectation their 
reduction would be higher than the ME weighted average of 13% considering they must deal 
with over-hires as well. Given that 20% are expected to opt for voluntary retirements, a needed 
inflow of -760 personnel was calculated to achieve a 20% reduction. Although a very stringent 
hiring restriction currently exists, AMRDEC demands for future human resources is relatively 
high as compared to other organizations in the Aviation and Missile Material Enterprise. The 
challenges associated with ensuring age diversity will become a challenge for the AMRDEC and 
the average age is expected to increase slightly as long as hiring freezes remain in effect. Should 
attrition rates not follow the historical patterns, a VERA/VSIP becomes a possibility to help 
influence the outflow. The issues identified with supervisor retirement eligibility and general 
administrator attrition are noteworthy, but may be managed with proper AMRDEC Human 
Resources oversight. 

The Army Contracting Command (ACC) - Redstone 

As with AMCOM, the ACC is another major subordinate command under the Army 
Materiel Command (AMC). The ACC supports Army acquisition with a mission of “delivering 
contracting solutions in support of the Army and Unified Land Operations, anytime, anywhere” 
(U.S. Army Contracting Command, 2015, p. 5). The command is structured into six contracting 



AVIATION AND MISSILE MATERIEL ENTERPRISE DEMOGRAPHICS 


45 


centers that provide contracting support to 12 Program Executive Offices (PEOs) and multiple 
program managers (PMs) supporting the U.S. Army’s major acquisition programs (U.S. Army 
Contracting Command, 2015, p. 7). Only one of those centers, ACC-Redstone, is analyzed 
herein as a part of the Material Enterprise on Redstone Arsenal. The ACC has developed a 
Human Capital Strategic Plan that covers the period of time addressed by this study (2016-2020). 
One of the primary goals of that plan is to recruit and retain as required to keep their professional 
workforce at required strength levels (U.S. Army Contracting Command, 2015, p. 22). 

The business and industry group (1100) constitute the preponderance of the ACC- 
Redstone workforce with the 1102 series being the most common in this group. The general 
administrative, clerical and office services group (300) are a distant second in size followed by a 
hodgepodge of other functions (Figure 25). 



Figure 25. Profile of the various job series at ACC-Redstone. (Hodges, 2015) 


The average age of the ACC-Redstone is 47 tying it with AMRDEC as the youngest 
organization across the Material Enterprise (with “young” being a relative term as described 
earlier). The age histogram shown in Figure 26 shows only a slight bathtub effect from the 




AVIATION AND MISSILE MATERIEL ENTERPRISE DEMOGRAPHICS 


46 


earlier hiring freezes, but is otherwise skewed in distribution showing a large number of the 
workforce over 50. 



Figure 26. Histogram of age at ACC-Redstone. (Hodges, 2015) 


The histogram showing years of service (Figure 27) shows the highest percentage in the six 
to ten year bin. Similar to PEO AVN, there is a relatively older average age coupled with a low 
average years-service indicating that ACC-Redstone may be acquiring many employees through 
veteran’s benefits or possibly experienced business professionals coming from industry. Studies 
inferred there was a bathtub effect for the 1102s in years of service in between 13-23 years 
(Allen, Doran, & Westbrook, 2011, p. 1). The effects are still apparent today at the ACC 
Redstone location as indicated in Figure 27. For further investigation, a histogram was created 
that focused only upon the 1102 series and in bins of one year as opposed to five year bins 


(Figure 28). 



AVIATION AND MISSILE MATERIEL ENTERPRISE DEMOGRAPHICS 


47 


300 

250 

200 

150 

100 

50 

0 



Figure 27. Histogram of years-service at ACC-Redstone. (Hodges, 2015) 


so 

70 



Figure 28. Histogram of 1102 years-service at ACC-Redstone in one year bins. 

(Hodges, 2015) 


The deeper investigation of 1102 experience as shown in Figure 28 shows that the “bath¬ 
tub” effect as inferred by Allen et al. (2011) is very pronounced in this series. Figure 28 implies 

















AVIATION AND MISSILE MATERIEL ENTERPRISE DEMOGRAPHICS 


48 


that as the more experienced baby boomers retire, there will be a smaller pool of experience to 
backfill from. 

Figure 29 analyzes retirement eligibility for the job series that comprise the preponderance of 
the ACC workforce population. 



Figure 29. ACC-Redstone retirement eligibility as a function of labor category. (Hodges, 

2015) 

Figure 29 shows that these three crucial functions are not in serious risk of being lost due to 
voluntary retirement. In fact, retirement eligibility numbers for these series are below what was 
observed to be normal across the Material Enterprise indicating these positions will not be 
outside the norm for voluntary retirement attrition. Given the fact that 32% of the total 
population of ACC-Redstone would be eligible for retirement in 2020, a closer look at a few 
other series was made. Of the remaining positions in the 1100 group (non 1102s), 58% are 
eligible for retirement in 2020. Across the entire population, 20% are expected to be lost to 
voluntary retirement which is tied with the AMRDEC as the lowest expected voluntary 
retirement attrition. This rate results in an estimated need to hire roughly 300 personnel over the 
next five years in order to maintain needed human resource strength. 





















AVIATION AND MISSILE MATERIEL ENTERPRISE DEMOGRAPHICS 


49 


An analysis of all positions in ACC-Redstone classified as “Supervisory” is shown in Table 
30. 56% of the current population of supervisors become retirement eligible by 2020. The 
retirement prediction methodology suggests a number closer to 30% will opt to select the 
voluntary retirement option. Although the attrition prediction of managers is average (relative to 
Material Enterprise), the eligibility rates are about 4% above average. Therefore, promotion 
opportunities and the ability to attract talent into the organization will be normal compared to the 
other four organizations over the next few years, but should increase thereafter. 


120 % 


100 % 


80% 


60% 


40% 


20% 


0 % 



84 % 


Supervisors (2015) 



44 % 


Supervisors (2020) 


■ ELIGIBLE 

■ INELIGIBLE 


Figure 30. ACC-Redstone retirement eligibility of the supervisory positions. (Hodges, 

2015) 


The target TDA reductions between now and 2019 were not provided by ACC-Redstone. 
However, inferences are made based on research by RAND Corporation. The Army Materiel 
Command (which ACC is a primary subordinate to) will reduce their workforce by 20% between 
FY13 to FY17 under a complete external hiring freeze (Nataraj, Hanser, Camm, & Yeats, 2014, 
p. 28). A complete hiring freeze as defined by this study assumed transfers into the organization 









AVIATION AND MISSILE MATERIEL ENTERPRISE DEMOGRAPHICS 


50 


at historical rates, but no hiring of personnel outside the government. Therefore, if ACC is 
assumed to behave similar to the AMC forecast, then a relatively high number of transfers from 
outside organizations are expected to constitute the 300 needed over the next five years. The 
portion is attributable to ACC is tough to predict, but at a minimum it infers a strong likelihood 
that external hires are expected to continue, albeit under reduced levels as seen prior to the BCA 
(Nataraj, Hanser, Camm, & Yeats, 2014, pp. 42-47). The ACC-Redstone is not currently under 
any hiring restrictions for their 1102s and are able to hire to mission needs (ACC G-l, personal 
communication, March 24, 2016). ACC will likely utilize a mix of transfers from other 
organizations and continue to take advantage of internal programs (i.e. ACTEDS, DAWDF) in 
order to fill entry and journeyman level positions (ACC G-l, personal communication, March 
24, 2016). 

The Aviation and Missile Material Enterprise (Consolidated Totals) 

The preponderance of the Aviation and Missile Material Enterprise workforce consists of 
managers (300 group), business and contracts personnel (1100 group) and engineers (800 group). 
These three groups make up 85% of the Aviation and Missile ME workforce as shown in Figure 


31 below. 



AVIATION AND MISSILE MATERIEL ENTERPRISE DEMOGRAPHICS 


51 



Figure 31. Profile of the various job series at Aviation & Missile ME. (Hodges, 2015) 


The “OTHER” category consists of a multitude of groups at less than 2% each. 


The consolidated age profile of the Aviation and Missile ME is shown in Figure 32 below. 



Figure 32. Histogram of age at Aviation & Missile ME (FY15). (Hodges, 2015) 







AVIATION AND MISSILE MATERIEL ENTERPRISE DEMOGRAPHICS 


52 


This figure (32) substantiates the initial hypothesis of there being a “bathtub effect” in the 
Aviation and Missile ME workforce and a smaller pool of candidates to replace the baby 
boomers who will soon depart civilian service due to voluntary retirement. The average age of 
this population is 48 years old. 

The consolidated years of service profile is shown in Figure 33 below. 



Figure 33. Histogram of years-service at Aviation & Missile ME (FY15). (Hodges, 2015) 


The consolidated years of service profile is skewed towards fewer years of service with a 
very noticeable “bathtub effect”. The initial gap in experience hypothesis is substantiated by 
Figure 33. Average years of service of this population is 15 years. 

Figure 34 below shows the consolidated totals and corresponding weighted averages for 
various metrics across the ME. This table captures all data previously explained in the earlier 
sections and is shown consolidated for comparison purposes. 




AVIATION AND MISSILE MATERIEL ENTERPRISE DEMOGRAPHICS 


53 



AMCOM- 

REDSTONE 

AMRDEC 

> 

< 

o 

LU 

CL 

c n 
©a 

o 

LU 

Q. 

ACC-Redstone 

Weighted 

Averages 

Population 

2563 

3031 

523 

428 

918 









Potential for VERA/VSIP 

Low 

Moderate 

Low 

Low 

Low 









Job Series at Risk 

Legal 

Gen. Adm. 

- 

0896, 0340 

- 









TDA Strength Reduction (FY19) 

14.5% 

Unk. 

8.0% 

10.0% 

Unk. 

13% 








Potential for External Hiring 

High 

Mod 1 

Low 

Low 

Mod 









Eligible for Retirement in 2020 

37% 

34% 

43% 

40% 

32% 

36% 








Managers Eligible in 2020 

57% 

56% 

53% 

51% 

56% 

56% 








Calculated attrition of Managers by 2020 

34% 

27% 

32% 

34% 

30% 

31% 








Current Average Age 

49 

47 

51 

48 

47 

48 








Current Avg Years Service 

14 

16 

16.4 

16 

15 

15 








Estimated Needed Inflow (FY 16-20) 

1000 

760 

250 

190 

300 

500 








Predicted Retirement Attrition (FY16-20) 

24% 

20% " 

28% 

25% 

20% 

22% 


Figure 34. Consolidated summary table across ME. (Hodges, 2015) 


Chapter 5 - Observations and Conclusions on Data 

The problem statement introduced in chapter one raised the question of the demographic 
health of the civilian workforce behind the baby boomer generation. This paper has addressed 
the question by studying the age diversity, experience, risks of excessive attrition to the core job 
series as well as excessive attrition of the supervisory and management positions within the 
Aviation and Missile ME. It is recognized that there are many other aspects associated with 
demographic health that should be addressed as well as a much larger population. However, 
with the research as presented in chapter 4, a number of general observations become apparent 
for the civilian workforce at Redstone Arsenal after categorizing the data and conducting 




AVIATION AND MISSILE MATERIEL ENTERPRISE DEMOGRAPHICS 


54 


statistical analysis as covered in the previous sections. These observations and conclusions are 
addressed in the list that follows. 

Redstone Material Enterprise can reduce in Strength without Incentives or RIFs 

As discussed, it is still uncertain as to just how much the civilian workforce must reduce 
in strength given uncertainties with just how long sequestration will continue. Early estimates by 
the Secretary of Defense suggested a 5-6% reduction (Nataraj, Hanser, Camm, & Yeats, 2014, p. 
1). The forecasted demand models run by RAND suggest a reduction of 3-4% (Nataraj, Hanser, 
Camm, & Yeats, 2014, p. 39). The Rebalance for an Effective Defense Uniform and Civilian 
Employees (REDUCE) Act that has been proposed by Rep. Ken Calvert proposes cuts to the 
civilian workforce as high as 15% (McCalley, 2015). Organizations across the ME are planning 
for approximately 13% (Figure 34) which is between the two extremes. In the case of the ME at 
Redstone, the relatively older age works in their favor as nearly a quarter of the workforce is 
expected to retire within the next five years. Although the ME loses valuable experience with 
the older workforce when they retire, it also likely saves itself from a Reduction in Force (RIF) 
or a need to offer an early out incentive such as a VERA or VSIP. 

There will be Poaching of Human Resources 

One common challenge across all organizations in the ME will be bringing personnel on¬ 
board under reduced hiring actions. As discussed in the earlier sections, the outflow rates are 
expected to increase as a consequence of increased retirements from an aging workforce. In the 
case of the two program executive offices in the ASA(ALT) (PEO AVN and M&S), personnel 
experienced in management with an understanding of Army acquisition are needed. This means 
a low likelihood of younger entry level external hires to feed to 300 group lifeline and high 
likelihood of veteran’s preference hiring actions and transfers from other DoD organizations. 



AVIATION AND MISSILE MATERIEL ENTERPRISE DEMOGRAPHICS 


55 


PEO M&S should be able to lure a fair share of personnel away from the other three 
organizations given they will have a relatively high number of promotion opportunities. It seems 
a plausible theory that the AMRDEC, AMCOM and ACC becomes the donor to the two PEOs to 
feed their 0300, 0800 and 1100 group needs since they have personnel supporting and familiar 
with their programs as well as the appropriate series structure. PEO AVN has the oldest 
workforce with the highest predicted attrition rate. They not only need to feed a 0300 and 1100 
group, but also a 0800 group that they view as a core function. Promotion opportunities will not 
be as plentiful as PEO M&S, but will be there nonetheless as an incentive for others from the 
ACC, AMCOM and AMRDEC to make the jump to PEO AVN. Given future hiring restrictions 
and the need for personnel with highly qualified acquisition experience, these organizations will 
likely be required to poach from one another as suggested by Allen, Doran, and Westbrook 
(2011). Looking at the civilian workforce as a whole, transfers will be a zero sum game. 
However, at the micro level, there will be winners and losers. Expect the organization who can 
offer the best incentives to win the poaching battle. 

Demand for 1102s will exceed the Supply 

The 1100 group is a common function used across all five organizations of the ME. All five 
organizations see the function as a needed core function necessary to execute the mission. 
Furthermore, the contracting role of an 1102 is considered an inherently governmental function 
which must be organic and cannot be outsourced (Krieger, 2007) contrary to engineering and 
most logistics functions. As shown by Figure 31, the supply of the 1100 group is not as plentiful 
as it is with the 0800 or 0300 groups making it a smaller pool to draw from. Research shows that 
many 1102 positions are vacant and cannot be filled across all of ACC (Krieger, 2007) to 



AVIATION AND MISSILE MATERIEL ENTERPRISE DEMOGRAPHICS 


56 


include ACC-Redstone as well (Allen, Doran, & Westbrook, 2011). The inability to fill these 
positions are possibly a consequence of stringent qualification requirements and an inability to 
match compensation that industry provides to business professionals (Krieger, 2007). The issue 
is compounded by the fact that nearly 20% of the 1100 group will leave the civilian workforce 
due to voluntary retirement by 2020 thus creating a “bathtub effect” with this group showing a 
disproportionate gap in the age groups following the baby boomers (see Figure 35 below). In 
summary, the data suggests that the demand for this service will be high while the supply will be 
relatively low. ACC-Redstone will have their hands full working to retain the workforce they 
currently have as well as recruiting to meet future demands. 

180 



Figure 35. Age histogram of 1102 series only at ACC-Redstone. (Hodges, 2015) 

Human Resource Supply of 300 and 800 Group can be Managed 

With exception to the risks of 1102s as addressed above, the other core functions of the 
Aviation and Missile ME (300 and 800 group) should remain in generally manageable supply. 
No significant risks to these job functions were identified in the analysis of DCPDS data. 
AMRDEC has a greater supply of the 800 group than authorized and should be able to reduce to 



AVIATION AND MISSILE MATERIEL ENTERPRISE DEMOGRAPHICS 


57 


authorized levels through normal attrition. Requirements of positions in the 300 group suggest 
that many of these positions can be filled by veteran’s preference hiring actions. 

Supervisors and Managers will be Selected with Less Experience than Before 

Nearly one third of the population of present day managers are expected to retire from the 
Aviation and Missile ME by 2020. With exception to PEO AVN, the age and experience 
histograms for each of the organizations analyzed shows a “bathtub effect”, or a gap for the age 
and experience groups right behind the departing baby boomers. PEO AVN has the oldest 
workforce with 63% of its core workforce being above age 50 and will also lose the highest 
percentage of employees (28%) to retirement from its current population. All five organizations 
are faced with the challenge of filling positions that will be vacated by the retiring baby boomers. 
When supervisory or management level positions become open, there will be a smaller pool of 
candidates with over 15 years of experience to choose from as a consequence of the hiring 
freezes of the 1990s (see Figure 33). The perception was conveyed by one human resource 
manager that personnel are “being promoted into high graded positions who have not spent the 
time in the lower grades to achieve the expertise required to effectively manage and supervise at 
the higher levels”. Expect to see more future leaders in the acquisition workforce in their 30s 
than there have been in years past as a consequence of the bath-tub effects. 

Chapter 6 - Recommendations 

In consideration of the challenges that human resources managers in the civilian workforce face 
as described in chapter 5, the following recommendations are provided based upon the research 


conducted. 



AVIATION AND MISSILE MATERIEL ENTERPRISE DEMOGRAPHICS 


58 


1. Build plans, not just strategies. The two HCSPs reviewed were more of a broader 
based strategy than they were a detailed plan. The HCSPs did an excellent job of 
providing a basic framework for how they are going to accomplish their vision with 
human capital. Kotter asserts that plans flow from a strategy and specifies a step by step 
process on how to implement that strategy (Kotter, 2002). These two HCSPs did not 
provide any specific detail on implementation plans. Perhaps that may be by design as 
detail such as that may be too sensitive for public distribution. Nevertheless, the fact 
remains that a detailed plan for human capital is a wise investment considering the 
challenges that are coming in the near term. In speaking with many G-l and HR 
managers, there was a plan, but sometimes just not documented for the world to see. 

2. Be very selective on the inflow. The process for selection is already laden with many 
EEO considerations that help to ensure proper diversity. Added to that are veterans 
preferences, ensuring minimum qualification criteria are met, not to mention the 
significant restrictions on the hiring of external personnel over the next few years. 
Suddenly, a new challenge is added to the mix in selecting candidates for positions. That 
challenge is to fill the gaps in the demographics across the workforce. This challenge 
may easily result in conflicting requirements in the selection process. For example, a 
baby boomer candidate may be more qualified and experienced, yet a generation X 
candidate with less experience may help fill the “bathtub” gap and help build the bench 
for the future. Ignoring the age gap all together places the future of the organization at 
great risk. Finding a proper balance between experience and the desired age profile will 
require advanced planning and thought on the part of the HR manager. At a minimum, 



AVIATION AND MISSILE MATERIEL ENTERPRISE DEMOGRAPHICS 


59 


the challenge will likely require selection of candidates for positions to be more selective 
than ever before. 

3. Control the Outflow. With respect to personnel that transfer, research suggests that the 
top performers seek the following aspects listed in order of preference: job satisfaction, 
perceived fairness in financial compensation, strong work relationships and commitment 
(Mathis, Jackson, & Valentine, 2014). In addition to the aspects already listed, Mathis et 
al. (2014) assert that job satisfaction is driven by the nature of the work (i.e. person-job 
fit) and opportunities for advancement. Considering that a poaching war is coming, the 
leadership of organizations across the Aviation and Missile ME will need to give strong 
consideration to improving their perceived image with respect to factors such as these. 

At stake is the retention of the top notch performers. The five organizations analyzed 
herein do not all share a common financial compensation system. Research has proven 
that employees will push for a transfer when another financial compensation plan is 
perceived to be fairer than their current (Mathis, Jackson, & Valentine, 2014). HR 
managers will be faced with the challenge of incentivizing the older workforce to stay 
longer and also the retention of the top performers of the younger generations. Research 
from Mathis et al (2014) infers that the odds of winning the poaching war will be 
enhanced by whoever offers the greatest perceived financial compensation plan. As a 
final thought, it is noteworthy that based on historical data, the Network Enterprise 
Technology Command (NETCOM) is projected to continue to grow in strength even if 
there is a complete external hiring freeze given the high number of transfers into the 
command (Nataraj, Hanser, Camm, & Yeats, 2014). An excellent future research project 



AVIATION AND MISSILE MATERIEL ENTERPRISE DEMOGRAPHICS 


60 


to aid HR management in the future poaching war would be a deeper dive into 
understanding why NETCOM has been so successful in attracting personnel. 



AVIATION AND MISSILE MATERIEL ENTERPRISE DEMOGRAPHICS 


61 


References 

Allen, K. E., Doran, J. W., & Westbrook, B. L. (2011). ARMY ACQUISITION AND CONTRACTING PERSONNEL 
REQUIREMENTS: HOW ARE THE ARMY'S CURRENT RECRUITMENT, DEVELOPMENT AND 
RETENTION PROGRAMS MEETING CURRENT AND FUTURE PERSONNEL REQUIREMENTS. 
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Asch, B. J. (2003). The Defense Civilian Workforce: Insights from Research. Santa Monica, CA: RAND. 

Department of Defense. (2014). Quadrennial Defense Review. Washington, DC: Department of Defense. 

Hodges, C. D. (2015). [BOXI Report of Personnel Data Extracted from Defense Civilian Personnel Data 
System]. Unpublished raw data. 

Kotter, J. P. (2002). The Heart of Change. Boston, MA: Harvard Business Review Press. 

Krieger, J. (2007). Professionalism in the Acquisition Contracting Workforce. Defense Acquisition Review 
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Lopez, C. T. (2015, July 9). Army to Realign Brigades, Cut 40,000 Soldiers, 17,000 Civilians. Retrieved from 
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http://www.army.mil/article/151992/Army_to_realign_brigades_cut_40_000_Soldiers_17_0 

00_civilians/ 

Lytell, M. C., Kuhn, K., Haddad, A., Marquis, J. P., Lim, N., Hall, K. C.,... Wenger, J. W. (2015). Force 
Drawdowns and Demographic Diversity. Santa Monica, CA: RAND Corporation. 

Mathis, R. L., Jackson, J. H., & Valentine, S. R. (2014). Human Resource Management. Stamford: Cengage 
Learning. 

McCalley, S. (2015, January 21). House bills slash federal workforce, start possible hiring freeze. 

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bills-slash-federal-workforce-start-possible-hiring-freeze/ 

More, E. A., Vongswasdi, P., & Woodward, I. C. (2015). Generational Diversity at Work: A Systematic 
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Mossisa, A., & Hippie, S. (2006, October). Trends in Labor Force Participation. Monthly Labor Review, pp. 
35-57. 

Nataraj, S., Guo, C., Hall-Partyka, P., Gates, S. M., & Yeung, D. (2014). Options for Department of Defense 
Total Workforce Supply and Demand. Santa Monica, CA: RAND Corporation. 

Nataraj, S., Hanser, L. M., Camm, F., & Yeats, J. (2014). The Future of the Army's Civilian Workforce. 

Santa Monica, CA: RAND Corporation. 

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Tan, M. (2015, November 11). Army drawdown: 37,000 civilian jobs cut, thousands more to come. 
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civilian-jobs-cut-thousands-more-come/75602958/ 

U.S. Army Aviation and Missile Life Cycle Command. (2012). Human Capital Strategic Plan Fiscal Years 
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AVIATION AND MISSILE MATERIEL ENTERPRISE DEMOGRAPHICS 


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Acronym 

ACC-RSA 

ACTEDS 

AMC 

AMCOM 

AMRDEC 

ASA(ALT) 

AVN 

BCA 

BRAC 

CCAD 

CSRS 

DAWDF 

DCPDS 

DoD 

FERS 

FY 

G-l 

HCSP 

HR 

LEAD 

M&S 

ME 

MRA 

NETCOM 

OPM 

PEO 


Glossary of Acronyms 
Description 

Army Contracting Command-Redstone 

Army Civilian Training Education and Development 

System 

Army Materiel Command 

Aviation and Missile Command 

Aviation and Missile Research Development and 

Engineering Center 

Assistant Secretary of Army for Acquisition, Logistics and 

Technology 

Aviation 

Budget Control Act 

Base Closure and Realignment Commission 

Corpus Christi Army Depot 

Civil Service Retirement System 

Defense Acquisition Workforce Development Fund 

Defense Civilian Personnel Data System 

Department of Defense 

Federal Employees Retirement System 

Fiscal Year 

Human Capital Staff 

Human Capital Strategic Plan 

Human Resources 

Letterkenny Army Depot 

Missiles & Space 

Materiel Enterprise 

Minimum Retirement Age 

Network Enterprise Technology Command 

Office of Personnel Management 

Program Executive Office 



AVIATION AND MISSILE MATERIEL ENTERPRISE DEMOGRAPHICS 


64 


PII 

Personally Identifiable Information 

RDECOM 

Research Development and Engineering Command 

REDUCE 

Rebalance for an Effective Defense Uniform and Civilian 

Employees 

TDA 

Table of Distribution and Allowance 

TMDE 

Test Measurement and Diagnostic Equipment 

VERA 

Voluntary Early Retirement Authority 

VSIP 

Voluntary Separation Incentive Pay