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TOPICS TO BE DISCUSSED 


co 2 -greenhouse EFFECT 

CORPORATE RESEARCH CLIMATE MODELING 

- RESULTS 

- PUBLICATION AND PRESENTATION PLANS 


BASIS FOR THE C0 2 GREENHOUSE EFFECT 


• EARTH RECEIVES VISIBLE, ULTRAVIOLET AND INFRARED RADIATION FROM THE SUN 

- SOME REFLECTED INTO SPACE 
SOME ABSORBED BY ATMOSPHERE 
SOME ABSORBED BY EARTH'S SURFACE 

• EARTH RERADIATES ABSORBED ENERGY AS INFRARED RADIATION 

C0 2 AND OTHER MOLECULES ABSORB PART OF INFRARED RADIATION 
THIS ABSORBED ENERGY WARMS THE ATMOSPHERE 

t THEREFORE HIGHER C0 2 CONCENTRATIONS WOULD WARM THE LOWER ATMOSPHERE 

• WARMING COULD INDUCE MAJOR CHANGES IN CLIMATE 

- TEMPERATURE 

- RAINFALL PATTERNS 

- COASTAL SEA LEVELS 


CONCENTRATION OF ATMOSPHERIC C0 2 AT MAUNA LOA 

OBSERVATORY, HAWAII 



YEAR 


INDUSTRIAL C0 2 PRODUCTION 



I860 1880 1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000 

YEAR 


CLIMATE MODEL CONSENSUS 


• ESTIMATES OF THE CHANGE IN GLOBAL AVERAGE SURFACE TEMPERATURE DUE TO VARIOUS CHANGES IN C0 2 CONCENTRATION 
- SHADING SHOWS PRESENT RANGE OF NATURAL FLUCTUATIONS 



C0 2 CONCENTRATION - ppmv 


AT (°C) 


FIRST EFFECTS PREDICTED BY YEAR 2000 



YEAR 


UNCERTAINTY 


VALIDITY OF CLIMATE MODELS IS NOT ESTABLISHED 


• COMPLEXITY OF CLIMATE SYSTEM REQUIRES MANY APPROXIMATIONS AND PARAMETER I ZAT IONS 

• GEOLOGICAL AND HISTORICAL CLIMATE DATA ARE INADEQUATE FOR VALIDATION OF MODELS 

• PREDICTIONS OF MODELS ARE UNVERIFIED 

• RECENT CONTROVERSY OVER PREDICTION BY R. NEWELL (MIT) OF MUCH SMALLER C0 2 
INDUCED WARMING 

- EVAPORATIVE BUFFERING MECHANISM TO EXPLAIN OBSERVED LACK OF TEMPERATURE 
VARIATION IN EQUATORIAL REGIONS 

- PROPOSED THAT THIS MECHANISM WOULD LIMIT C0 2 INDUCED GLOBAL TEMPERATURE RISE 


CLIMATE MODELING AT CR 


• RESEARCH HAS FOCUSED ON GLOBAL CLIMATIC EFFECTS OF EVAPORATIVE COOLING IN THE 
EQUATORIAL REGIONS 

- EVAPORATIVE MECHANISM OF NEWELL HAS BEEN INCORPORATED INTO A CLIMATE MODEL 

• TEMPERATURE CHANGES DUE TO VARIATIONS OF SOLAR INSOLATION AND ATMOSPHERIC C0 2 
CONCENTRATIONS ARE STUDIED 


TEMPERATURE DIFFERENCE (K) 


C0 2 INDUCED CHANGES FROM CURRENT CLIMATE 



C0 2 INDUCED CHANGES FROM CURRENT CLIMATE 



ICE LINE LOCATION 


LO 



CONCLUSIONS 


• EQUATORIAL EVAPORATIVE COOLING IS AN IMPORTANT FACTOR IN THE EARTH'S CLIMATE 

• CONSEQUENCES OF NEWELL'S MECHANISM ARE CONSISTENT WITH THE MODELING COMMUNITY 
CONSENSUS 


MODEL PREDICTS ESSENTIALLY THE SAME AVERAGE TEMPERATURE CHANGE 
DECREASED WARMING PROPOSED BY NEWELL NOT FOUND 
EQUATORIAL BUFFERING IMPLIES INCREASED POLAR WARMING 


PUBLICATIONS AND PRESENTATIONS 


• PLAN TO SUBMIT TWO MANUSCRIPTS 

- GENERAL ASPECTS OF MODEL TO BE SUBMITTED TO JOURNAL OF GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH 

- SPECIFIC APPLICATIONS TO C0 2 PROBLEM TO BE SUBMITTED LATER 

• PLAN TO PRESENT WORK AT 

- DOE SPONSORED CO^CLIMATE MEETING IN SEPTEMBER 

- EWING SYMPOSIUM (LAMONT-DOHERTY-EXXON FOUNDATION SUPPORTED) IN OCTOBER 

• WORK IS A COLLABORATION WITH PROFESSOR M. I. HOFFERT - NEW YORK UNIVERSITY. 


QUESTIONS & ANSWERS 


Q. Is it Exxon's position that warming will take place? 

A. Current work is a model study aimed at studying the effect of 
evaporative buffering in equatorial oceans on climate. The 
model is illustrative rather than fully predictive. Predictions 
are subject to approximations and simplifications used to derive 
the model . 


Q. Is the work a refutation of Newell? 

A. Model elaborates on work of Newell and incorporates his evapora- 
tive constraint in overall energy balance model. Our predictions 
reconcile Newell's mechanism and modeling consensus. They dis- 
agree with C0 2 -related conclusions of Newell and Idso. 

Q. When will effects take place? 

A. Not treated in present (equilibrium) model. 


Q. Why is Exxon doing this work? 

A. In order to gain capability for critical evaluation of developments 
in a field which could impact on future energy policy. 



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