Skip to main content

Full text of "Exxon Climate Documents"

See other formats


Potentia l Enhanced 
Greenhouse Effects 


Status and Qui-Lon* 

Duane G. Levine 


Presentation 

to 

The Board of Directors 
of 

Exxon Corporation 


February 22 , 1989 



The Greenhouse Effect is real... has existed 

THROUGHOUT MAN'S HISTORY. . .AND IN 

FACT. . .WITHOUT IT, CURRENT LIFE COULD NOT 

exist. Today's concerns are about an en- 
hancement OF THIS EFFECT DUE TO HUMAN ACTIV- 
ITIES. So, I'll refer to these concerns 
collectively as "Potential Enhanced Green- 
house or PEG. It has been under intemstvf 
SCIENTIFIC STUDY FOR OVER A DECADE BEFORE IT 
RECENTLY LEAPED TO THE FRONT PAGE. 


In spite of the rush by some participants in 
the Greenhouse debate to declare that the 
science has demonstrated the existence of 

PEG TODAY... I DO NOT BELIEVE SUCH IS THE 

case. Enhanced Greenhouse is still deeply 

IMBEDDED IN SCIENTIFIC UNCERTAINTY, AND WE 
WILL REQUIRE SUBSTANTIAL ADDITIONAL INVESTI- 
GATION TO DETERMINE THE DEGREE TO WHICH ITS 
EFFECTS MIGHT BE EXPERIENCED IN THE FUTURE. 

POTENTI AL ENHANCED GRFFNHOUSF ( PEGj 

What's Known/Not Known About the SCIENCE 

• Chemistry/Physics 

• Climate Models 

• Data 

• Projections 

Who Are the Principal PLAYER.^ 

• Programs 

• Plans 

• Perceptions 

What’s NEXT 


SO THIS REVIEW WILL BEGIN WITH WHAT IS KNOWN 
AND NOT KNOWN ABOUT THE SCIENCE ... FIRST THE 
ESSENTIAL CHEMISTRY AND PHY^Trc THEN 

PROCEED WITH A DESCRIPTION OF CLIMATE m nnc, c 
WHICH ARE USED TO PREDICT FUTURE POTENTIAL 


# EFFECTS. I'll cover the HARD DATA and then 

SUMMARIZE PROJECTED EFFECT? . .BASED ON 
COMPLEX CLIMATE MODELS. . .WHICH. . . INCI- 
DENTLY . . . HAVE YET TO BE VERIFIED. 


However, policy initiatives are being ad- 
vanced NOW AND THEY COULD WELL OUT-PACE 
SCIENTIFIC PROGRESS. I'LL COVER THE CURRENT 
ROSTER OF PRINCIPAL PLAYERS IN THIS DEBATE, 
OUTLINE THEIR PROGRAM AND PLANS , AND SUMMA- 

. flTVr. ™ EIR M0ST V1SIBLE perceptions 
Finally, I ll try a glimpse at what's next . 

GLOBAL ATMnyPHc^ ic cqmrpbmc 




.°3 layer (U\0 ; ■ 

L * " , * ** i ■ * ■ ■ 




Stratosphere 


■Mr 

- V 


fmgm* 


yfeaa* 0 "!!^ < |R ) 




Troposphere 

/ /w 


To PUT PE6 IN PERSPECTIVE, LET'S START WITH 
* ® E !? ERAL M00EL OF THE EARTH'S ATMOSPHERE 
ANO Z OF THE CURRENT MAJOR GLOBAL ATMOSPHER- 
IC CONCERHS. On THE LEFT, SOLAR RADIANT ■ 
ENERGY IS REPRESENTED BY A BEAM RANGING FROM 
INFRARED (IR IN RED) TO ULTRAVIOLET (UV IN 
BLUE)... WITH THE BULK OF THE ENERGY IN THE 
VISIBLE RANGE SHOWN IN YELLOW. MOST OF THE 


2 



UV IS PICKED UP IN THE 03 LAYER IN THE 
STRATOSPHERE OR UPPER ATMOSPHERE (WHICH 
EXTENDS APPROXIMATELY 15-50 KM ABOVE THE 
EARTH S SURFACE) . THIS, OF COURSE, REVEALS 
THE CONCERN OVER DETERIORATION OF THIS LAYER 
BY MAN-MADE CHLOROFLUOROCARBONS (CFCs) 

WHICH CAN ATTACK 03 AND REDUCE ITS CONCEN- 
TRATION IN THE STRATOSPHERE. SUCH DETERIO- 
RATION WOULD ALLOW MORE UV TO PENETRATE THE 
ATMOSPHERE AND IMPACT LIFE ON THE EARTH ' S 

surface. Protection of this O 3 layer by 

REDUCING CFCs IS THE GOAL OF THE RECENT 

Montreal Protocols. 

Host of the IR penetrates the stratosphere 

AND IS ABSORBED BY GREENHOUSE GASES IN THE 
LOWER ATMOSPHERE OR TROPOSPHERE. THIS, OF 
COURSE, HELPS WARM THE EARTH. THE BULK OF 
THE RADIANT ENERGY REACHING THE EARTH IS 
ABSORBED IN THE VISIBLE RANGE (SHOWN IN 
YELLOW) . . .DI RECTLY WARMING THE EARTH. THE 
RE-EMITTED ENERGY... AND THIS IS MOST 
IMPORTANT... IS CONCENTRATED IN THE IR RANGE 
AND THAT ADDS TO THE AMOUNT OF IR IN THE 
TROPOSPHERE. 


mJ EN ' THE UPPER ATMOSPHERE IS DOMI- 
NATED BY UV. . .AND 03 LAYER PROTECTION IS THE 
ISSUE. . .WHILE THE LOWER ATMOSPHERE IS DOMI- 
NATED by IR and Greenhouse-type processes 

WITH CLIMATE CHANGE AS THE ISSUE. 



ATMOSPHERIC GREENHOUSE EFFFCTT 



Troposphere 

• Earth Concentrates IR 


He can go a little deeper on Greenhouse to 
HIGHLIGHT 2 KEY ASPECTS WHICH DETERMINE Its 
- effectiveness . Again... THE band of 

SOLAR RADIATION IS DEPICTED ON THE LEFT As 
MENTIONED, MOST OF THE INCIDENT VISIBLE 
SOLAR RADIATION (IN YELLOW) IS ABSORBED BY 
THE EARTH S SURFACE AND RE- EMITTED ALMOST 
EXCLUSIVELY AS IR (IN RED) . I F THIS RE- 
EMITTED IR ENCOUNTERS GREENHOUSE GAS- 
ES... LIKE C02... WHOSE PROPERTIES FAVOR IR 

IR S Sr , THEY ABS0RB IT - - leveraging the 

R WARMING. . .INDICATED BY THE DASHED LINE. 

ItoEN no Greenhouse gases are encountered 

the RE-EMITTED IR ESCAPES TO SPACE Thus 
THE EARTH SERVES TO CONCENTRATE IR IN THE' 
TROPOSPHERE AND GREENHOUSE GASES CONVERT IT 



ATMOSPHERIC GREENHOUSE EFFECT 



Troposphere 

• Earth Concentrates IR 

• Water Vapor Increases IR Trapping Effect 

TO HEAT. NOW. ..THIS ADDITIONAL HEATING 
PROMOTES MORE WATER VAPORIZATION AND WATER 
VAPOR ITSELF IS A VERY EFFECTIVE GREENHOUSE 
GAS. In FACT, IT IS ABOUT 3 TIMES MORE 
EFFECTIVE THAN C02- It'S REALLY THE WATER 
VAPOR THAT DOES MOST OF THE JOB. THIS 
LATTER POINT IS SIGNIFICANT BECAUSE ANY 

Greenhouse gas. . .including trace Greenhouse 

GASES LIKE CFCs, CH4, HALOGENS, N20, AND O 3 
IN THE TROPOSPHERE. . .CAN TRIGGER THE ADDI- 
TIONAL WATER VAPOR LEVERAGING EFFECT. 


This insight also exposes the enormous 

DIFFERENCES BETWEEN O3 LAYER PROTECTION AND 

Enhanced Greenhouse... 

• They occur in different parts of the 

ATMOSPHERE. 

• They involve different physics and 
chemistry. 

AND THEY HAVE DIFFERENT Ep FECTS on LIFE. 

• Whereas 03 layer deterioration is 

CURRENTLY TRACED TO A SINGLE FAMILY OF 

man-made chemicals. . .Greenhouse in- 
cludes THE LIFE CYCLE GASES C 02 AND H ?0 
WITH MANY NATURAL SOURCES AND SINKS. 

Finally, I should acknowledge that there are 

SOME INTERACTIONS BETWEEN 03 LAYER PROTEC- 
TION and Greenhouse in that 03 and CFCs are 
both Greenhouse gases and 03 can react with 

CERTAIN OTHER GREENHOUSE TROPOSPHERIC GASES. 

Exactly how the Greenhouse Gases determine 

GLOBAL HEAT OR ENERGY BALANCE. . .AND HOW THE 
FLOW OF ENERGY IN AND OUT OF THE EARTH'S 
ATMOSPHERE DRIVES OUR CLIMATE IS DESCRIBED 

IN THE NEXT £ FIGURES. .. FIRST, THE GLOBAL 
ENERGY BALANCE. . . 



GREENHOUSE GASES & GLOBAL HEAT BALANCE 

• Radiation Balance Regulates Global Temperature 


Cooling OtpudB On : 
IfemponUif* 

Almo*ph#fJc CompocWon 


Viewed from space, the earth must be in 
ENERGY EQUILIBRIUM. THAT MEANS... HEAT 
FLOWING IN FROM SOLAR RADIATION (SHOWN IN 
YELLOW) MUST EQUAL HEAT RE- EMITTED BY THE 
EARTH (SHOWN IN RED). THIS PLOT SHOWS THE 
RADIANT ENERGY IN AND OUT AS A FUNCTION OF 
WAVE LENGTH. . .YELLOW SOLAR HEATING IN THE 
VISIBLE RANGE AND RED EARTH COOLING IN THE 

IR range. . .Although the shapes of the curves 

ARE DIFFERENT AND THE RADIATION IS AT QUITE 
DIFFERENT WAVELENGTHS, THE FACT IS THAT THE 
AREAS UNDER THE CURVES ARE EQUAL. THIS 
EQUALITY INDICATES THE BALANCE BETWEEN TOTAL 
RADIATIVE HEATING AND COOLING. 

NOW, INCOMING SOLAR RADIATION. .. IS ESSEN- 
TIALLY A CONSTANT OVER TIME. HOWEVER, 
RADIANT COOLING DEPENDS ON THE EARTH ' S 
TEMPERATURE AND ATMOSPHERIC COMPOSITION 
The COOLING CURVE IS SHOWN IN MORE DETAIL 
IN THE FIGURE. COMPARED WITH THE SOMEWHAT 




GREENHOUSE GASES & GLOBAL HEAT BALANCE 


• Radiation Balance Regulates Global Temperature 


Cootofl Punnd* On: 
TMnpwatum 

Atmotpteric Composition 



• Greenhouse Gases Selectively Hap IR Radiation 



• Existing Greenhouse Produces 60 °F Surface Warming 
— Without IR Greenhouse Earth Would Be Laigely Frozen 

IDEALIZED, SMOOTH COOLING CURVE SHOWN 
ABOVE. . .HERE, IN FINER DETAIL, WE SEE THE 
EFFECT OF GREENHOUSE GASES. THE CLEAR AREA 
BENEATH THE CURVE SHOWS THE ABSORPTION OF IR 
RADIANT ENERGY RE- EMITTED BY THE EARTH AT 
PARTICULAR WAVELENGTHS. QUITE OBVIOUS ARE 
THE STRONG ABSORPTION FEATURES PRODUCED BY 

C02 and O 3 . Water vapor, the most powerful 

GREENHOUSE GAS, ABSORBS AT ALL WAVE LENGTHS. 

The total Greenhouse effect depends on the 

NATURE (MOLECULAR STRUCTURE) AND NUMBER 

(atmospheric concentration) of all Green- 
house MOLECULES. 

Since the solar heating input remains con- 
stant. . .while THE GREENHOUSE GASES HAVE 
ABSORBED SOME OF THE IR COOLING, THE EARTH 
MUST INCREASE ITS TEMPERATURE TO MAINTAIN 
EQUILIBRIUM RADIANT HEAT OUTPUT. In MODERN 




0 THE existing Greenhouse produces a 

60OF SURFACE WARMING. WITHOUT THIS EFFECT 
...THE EARTH WOULD BE LARGELY FROZEN AND 
LIFE AS WE KNOW IT COULD NOT EXIST. 

Now FOR THE SECOND FIGURE. . .DESCRIBING HOW 

THE FLOW OF ENERGY IN THE ATMOSPHERE DRIVES 
CLIMATE. 


ELEMENTS OF CLIMATE 


• Climito Reeponee is Governed By Complex Interactions 



Although our total atmosphere viewed from 

OUTSIDE SPACE MUST BE IN EQUILIBRIUM WITH 

!!™ ECT T ° S0LAR HEATING AND EARTH COOLING, 
WIDE VARIATIONS IN HEATING CAN EXIST INSIDE 
OUR ENVIRONMENT. ONCE HEAT IS ABSORBED, IT 
SETS IN MOTION ALL THE COMPLEX PROCESSES 
WHICH SHAPE OUR CLIMATE. THE PURPOSE OF 
CLIMATE MODELS IS TO ATTEMPT TO SORT-OUT 

these effects. Climate refers to the aver- 
age TREND OF WEATHER, INCLUDING VARIABILITY 

Dynamic effects of winds and currents con- 
trol GLOBAL CLIMATE BY TRANSPORTING HEAT 

distances - Important features of 

AVERAGE CLIMATE INCLUDE EVAPORATION/ 
PRECIPITATION AND CLOUD FORMATION ... ALL OF 
WHICH DISPLAY ENORMOUS VARIABILITY. 


9 



The difficulty in predicting climate 

CHANGE. . .THEN. . .IS NOT ASSOCIATED WITH 

Greenhouse gas IR radiative properties. . .but 

RATHER WITH CAPABILITIES TO UNDERSTAND AND 

I HE RESP0NSE 0F CLIMATE. FOR EXAMPLE, 
LET S BRIEFLY OUTLINE THE EFFECTS OF A 

COMPOSITIONAL CHANGE. .. INCREASING C02...ON 
CLIMATE. 

ELEMENTS OF CLIMATE 

• aim*. RMponw i. Gowrod By Cwpto, InttncMon, 


COMPOSITION 

CHANGE 


SOUA 

RADIATION 


atmosphere 


CO» H,0, Uses Omm 


Winds 


Evaporation 

Ptaoipftation 


Currants 



SEA LEVEL 


THB ADDED C02 TRAPS SOME ADDITIONAL 
r.;- WA T r ™ E ATM0SPHERE BY A SMALL 

«tount. This triggers other changes, 
mobf Ltc^ THAT a warmer atmosphere becomes 

MORE MOIST. ..WITH MORE VIATER VAPOR (a MORE 

SET G b R “ n “ u “ «*> «««"* WEN more 
WARMING. BUT depending on climate re- 
sponse. . .AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE MAY IN- 
CREASE CLOUD FORMATION... SHIELDING PARTS OF 

TION^m S SURFACE FR0M EWECT SOLAR RADIA- 
TION, AND... PERHAPS... COMPENSATING FOR THE 
ADDITIONAL GREENHOUSE WARMING. OTHER 
EFFECTS NOT WELL UNDERSTOOD ... LIKE OCEAN 


10 




CURRENTS. . .CAN ALSO AMPLIFY OR REDUCE 
WARMING. 


In addition to atmospheric composition 

CHANGES, WE ARE ALSO CONCERNED TODAY WITH 
CLIMATE CHANGES FORCED BY MASSIVE DEFORESTA- 
TION. This destruction adds to the C02 

LOADING TO THE ATMOSPHERE AND REMOVES SOME 
U2 SINK CAPACITY THROUGH PHOTOSYNTHESIS. 


Finally, over very long geological time 
SCALES. . .CONTINENTAL DRIFT, SHIFTS IN THE 
EARTH S ORBIT, AND OTHER SOLAR VARIA- 
TIONS. . .MAY CAUSE CHANGES IN SEA LEVEL AND 
SOLAR RADIATION WHICH CAN HAVE ENORMOUS 
EFFECTS ON CLIMATE. BUT THESE ARE USUALLY 
NOT PART OF CURRENT PEG PREDICTIONS. 


HISTORICAL RECORD OF 
ATMOSPHERIC C0 2 VARIATION 



• Increase 3 GTON Carbon Per War 

• Pre-industrial C0 2 Level 270 ppm (28% Growth) 




How I'll cover the hard data we have on PEG. 
First, the famous Mauna Loa (Hawaii) record- 
ings SHOWING THE INCREASING CONCENTRATION OF 
ATMOSPHERIC C02. OBSERVATIONS AT THE 
Scripps Institute began in 1958 as part of 
the International Geophysical Year. The 

DATA SHOW A STEADY INCREASE IN C02 WITH AN 
OBVIOUS ANNUAL OSCILLATION. THE PERIODIC 
VARIATION OCCURS BECAUSE C02 IS DRAWN DOWN 
DURING THE GROWING SEASON AND RELEASED IN 
THE FALL AND WINTER. SINCE 1958, C02 HAS 
RISEN FROM 315 PPM TO ABOUT 345 PPM, TODAY. 

These measurements have been confirmed (* 1 
ppm) in great detail at sites from the north 
pole TO Antarctica. C02 mixes rapidly in 

THE ATMOSPHERE, SO RESULTS ON THE AVERAGE 
GROWTH OF C02 ARE SIMILAR ACROSS THE GLOBE. 

The NET ACCUMULATION RATE OF CARBON IN THE 
ATMOSPHERE IS ABOUT 3 GIGATONS (BILLIONS OF 

METRIC TONS) PER YEAR CORRESPONDING TO THIS 
GROWTH. 

From measurements of air bubbles trapped in 

GLACIAL ICE CORES, IT IS ESTABLISHED THAT 
THE RECENT BUILDUP OF C02 BEGAN WITH THE 
INDUSTRIAL ERA. In THE MID 1800s THE C02 
LEVEL WAS ABOUT 270 PPM (* 10 PPM) . C02 

GROWTH IS ABOUT 28% SINCE THEN. 



HISTORICAL RECORD OF 
FOSSIL FUEL C0 2 EMISSION 



* Gro ^; 8 " , ? ed A R, l ,,owin fl In Mid 70s 

- Growth Rate Again at Historical Levels 4%/w 

* - g b 7S^M 0oub " nfl °“ ure s °°"“ 

ThE NEXT DATA SHOW C02 EMISSION FROM FOSSIL 
FUELS BETWEEN 1950 AND TODAY. T«E UNITS ARE 

T^are 0 ™ 0 ? 5 (GT ° N) ° F CARB0N PER year - 
HERE ARE TWO IMPORTANT POINTS FROM THIS 

figure: 

First note that modern emission rates are 

Pflo H LARGER ™ AN THE OF ACCUMULATION OF 

SPHEBTr T rL A ™° SPHERE ' Recall ™ at ATMO- 
SPHERIC C02 IS GROWING BY ABOUT 3 GtON/YR 

Fossil fuel emissions today are about 5 

25. AN “ BlE0RIS14XIim IS THOUGHT TO ADD 

GT0M - Exact values for deforesta- 

ION ARE CONTROVERSIAL. ESTIMATES RANGE 
FROM LESS THAN 1 TO OVER 2 GTON PER YEAR 

Nonetheless, only about half the emitted CO? 

STAYS IN THE ATMOSPHERE. THE OTHER HAL^ IS 
THOUGHT TO BE ABSORBED INTO THE OCEANS. It 
IS ALSO TRUE THAT PLANTS GROW BETTER IN AN 

atmosphere enriched in C02. That has le£ 


13 



SOME SCIENTISTS TO SUGGEST THAT C02 IS BEING 
TAKEN UP AND CONVERTED TO BIOMASS. BUT THAT 
IS VERY DIFFICULT TO CONFIRM IN STUDIES OF 
NATURAL ECOLOGICAL SYSTEMS SO FAR. 


The second point from the figure concerns 

THE GROWTH IN C02 EMISSION. PRIOR TO THE 

Arab oil embargo, emissions grew steadily at 

ABOUT 4.4% PER YEAR. WHEN THE GREENHOUSE 
ISSUE WAS FIRST IDENTIFIED IN THE MID-1970S, 
THAT RATE WAS EXTRAPOLATED TO PROJECT ATMO- 
SPHERIC C02 LEVELS WOULD DOUBLE EARLY IN THE 
NEXT CENTURY, SAY 2025. HOWEVER, THE RE- 
DUCED USE OF FOSSIL FUELS SINCE THEN, CAUSED 
FORECASTS OF DOUBLING TO MOVE OUT BY SEVERAL 
DECADES, SAY TILL 2075-2100. THE FIGURE 
SHOWS THAT THE GROWTH RATE HAS ONCE AGAIN 
RECOVERED TO PAST HISTORICAL LEVELS. If THE 
HIGHER GROWTH PERSISTS, THE DOUBLING TIME 
WILL AGAIN MOVE CLOSER BY SEVERAL DECADES. 


HISTORICAL RECORD 
OF GLOBAL TEMPERATURE CHANGE 


£ 

► 



Noteworthy Differences 
With Greenhouse Predictions 


• Recent Warming Reverses Cooling From 1940-197Ds 
— 1980s Wannest Decade on Record 

Rwwetent Ihend Could Signal Greenhouse Wanning 


* isoo autnmer Heat and Drought, A Critical Media Event 
— Cited as an Example of Future liends 



The final data set covers past variation in 

GLOBAL AVERAGE TEMPERATURE. OF COURSE, 
GLOBAL AVERAGE TEMPERATURE IS A STATISTICAL 
CONCEPT. It CANNOT BE DIRECTLY MEASURED. 

There are serious issues concerning com- 
pleteness, ACCURACY, AND INTERPRETATION OF 
THIS HISTORICAL DATA. HOWEVER, THE PROBLEM 
IS RECEIVING A GREAT DEAL OF ATTENTION, AND 
MOST STUDIES SHOW RESULTS SIMILAR TO THESE. 

The DATA SHOW A RELATIVELY LARGE SCATTER OF 
A FEW TENTHS OF A DEGREE FROM YEAR TO YEAR. 

This "noise" occurs from natural fluctua- 
tions THAT ARE NOT COMPLETELY UNDERSTOOD. 

It is known that EVENTS like volcanic erup- 
tions AND CHANGES IN OCEANIC UPWELLING (SUCH 
as El Nino), cause part of the variability. 

The DASHED TREND LINE ILLUSTRATES THE GENER- 
AL BEHAVIOR. THE RECORD SHOWS AN APPARENT 
RISE OF ABOUT 1/20 C OVER THE PAST 100 
YEARS. 


However, the warming does not agree with 

MODELS BASED ON C02 VARIATIONS. In PARTI- 
CULAR, ENHANCED GREENHOUSE MODELS PREDICT A 
SMOOTHLY ACCELERATING INCREASE OF TEMPERA- 
TURE WITH TIME (SHOWN IN RED) . THE DATA ARE 
QUITE DIFFERENT. MOST NOTICEABLE IS A 
COOWNG TREND BETWEEN THE 1930s AND LATE 
1970S WHEN THE MODEL PREDICTS WARMING. 


Data on temperature variation in the 1980s 

ARE NOW BECOMING AVAILABLE. THEY SHOW A 
REVERSAL OF THE RECENT COOLING TREND. In 

™ C ™. T ?«n. WAH ? EST VEARS ° M HEC0RD OCCURRED 
IN THE 1980s. If THIS TREND PERSISTS IT 


COULD SIGNAL THAT ENHANCED GREENHOUSE 
WARMING IS FINALLY BECOMING DETECTABLE. 

There is no doubt that the 1988 heat and 

DROUGHT WERE A CRITICAL EVENT IN THE GREEN- 
HOUSE ISSUE, BECAUSE THEY STIRRED PUBLIC 
ATTENTION, AND BROUGHT HOME POTENTIAL CONSE- 
QUENCES OF CLIMATE WARMING. HOWEVER, 1988 
WAS NOT A PREDICTED CONSEQUENCE OF ENHANCED 

Greenhouse models. Most meteorologists 

INTERPRET THE SUMMER AS AN INFREQUENT, BUT 
NOT UNEXPECTED FLUCTUATION IN WEATHER. 

Greenhouse scientists by and large have not 

CLAIMED THE US HEAT AND DROUGHT WERE CAUSED 
BY ENHANCED GREENHOUSE, BUT THEY HAVE CITED 
IT AS AN EXAMPLE OF WHAT PEG MIGHT BRING. 

SO FAR WE HAVE DISCUSSED THE HISTORICAL 
RECORD, AND SHOWN THE IMPORTANT DATA. 

However, PEG impacts occur in the future 
S o NOW WE TURN TO PROJECTIONS. 

PROJECTED SOURCES OF 
ENERGY AND C0 2 EMISSION 


ENERGY 



16 




rft!? ECASTS 0F FUTURE LEVELS of atmospheric 
C02 BEGIN BY PROJECTING ENERGY NEEDS AND 
SOURCES WELL INTO THE NEXT CENTURY. THE 
FIGURE SHOWS THREE FORECASTS OF ENERGY 
DEMAND TAKEN FROM A DOE STUDY, LABELED CASE 

o, and C. The unit of energy is 1018 

JOULES, WHICH IS ABOUT THE SAME AS QUADS, OR 

quadrillions of BTUs. Case B is close to 
recent Exxon projections. 

projected sources of 

ENERGY AND C0 2 EMISSION 


ENERGY 


2000 f- 


[=3 Nuclear, Solar 

And Hydro Electric 


© 


CD Solids 
B Gas 
ana on 


1000 h 


<1 

c 

iu 


.ffl. 


1975 



2000 


CtyBTU INDEX 
(Relative to Oil) 


Conventional Synthetic Liquids 


2.2 


2025 



Gas on coal Coal Shall Gas 

• Future Emtoion to Forecasts of Er^sy D«mand, Soutw 

Prelections Differ Significantly Beyond Near Term 

ll “ “ ELL known that fossil fuels employed 
of rnl 1 ^ THE DEMANDS ' differ in the amount 
THis°PADT L ^r T0 PROOUCE A B ™ 0F energy. 

=.,«« «! . 0F ™ E FIG0HE compares fossil 
bfo RTU N * NELATIVE scale where emissions 

ONE 0IL AR E TAKEN AS 

one. Then, Gas is 0.7 and Coal is 1.25 We 

LIOUTn« 0W C HE INDEX VALUES FOR SYNTHETIC 

liquids. Synthetic liquids from coal and 
e™ rof T L I IN GREATER C °2 missions. ?„E 
process. Especially for synthetics from 




COAL AND SHALE THE C02 FACTOR IS SENSITIVE 
TO THE RAW MATERIAL AND PROCESS ROUTE. 

Liquids derived directly from gas have 

SIGNIFICANTLY LOWER C02 INDICES. 

PROJECTED SOURCES OF 
ENERGY AND C0 2 EMISSION 



• Future Emission Sensitive to Forecasts of Enei?y Demand. Source 
- Projections Differ Significantly Beyond Near Term 


F °R each energy demand case... (A, B, & O... 

THIS C02 GENERATION INDEX CAN BE USED TO 
COMPUTE C02 EMISSIONS AS SHOWN IN THE FINAL 

figure. Case A with the greatest energy 

DEMAND ALSO PRODUCES MUCH HIGHER C02 EMIS- 
SIONS, SINCE IT RELIES ON HIGH C02 PRODUCING 
FUELS FROM SYNTHETICS. OVERALL FORECASTS 

WIDELY BEYOND THE NEAR TERM. EXTEND- 
ED OUT TO 2100 THEY VARY BY FACTORS OF 20 IN 
C02 EMISSION LEVELS. 





PROJECTED GROWTH OF ATMOSPHERIC CO* 

• Combln* FeneuU: Economic Growth, Eneigy Uu, C0 2 Growth 



• Atmospheric CO a Doubles (600 ppm) 

— Case A: 2030 
— Case B: 2060 
— Case C: 2100 


By combining these three types of projec- 
tions FOR THE FUTURE... 

t TOTAL ENERGY CONSUMPTION 

• C02 EMISSION FACTORS FOR VARIOUS FOSSIL 
FUELS 

AND 

• DISTRIBUTION OF FOSSIL FUEL ENERGY CON- 
SUMPTION BY RESOURCE. . . 


IT IS POSSIBLE TO FORECAST FUTURE LEVELS OF 
ATMOSPHERIC C02. THE PROJECTIONS SHOW DOE 

o2SS CASTS F0R ™ E ^ CASES THROUGH THE YEAR 


In these forecasts the C02 doubling time is 
A CONVENIENT BENCHMARK TO MEASURE C02 BUILD- 
UP. (It is the level considered in most 

CLIMATE SIMULATIONS OF THE GREENHOUSE EF- 
FECT.) However, there is nothing magical 

ABOUT DOUBLING ITSELF. TAKING THE DOUBLING 
LEVEL TO BE 600-700 PPM, THE VARIOUS CASES 

LEAD TO A DOUBLING BETWEEN 2030 AND 2100 AS 
INDICATED. a 



POTENTIAL CLIMATE IMPACT FROM CO,- 
NEXT 100 YEARS 


"CHANGING CLIMATE”, NATIONAL RESEARCH COUNCIL 19S3 
• Temperature 

“ Mean Temperature Increase ... 1.5 - 4.5°c 
— Greeter Warming In Polar Regions (2-3x) 


sea Level/Sea Ice 

— Coverage and Thickness of Sea Ice/Glaciation Will Decrease 
Sea Level Rise (Meltwater + Thermal Expansion) ... 70 cm 

Natural Ecosystems and Agriculture 

— Regional Climate Change: Temperature, Hydrology 

— Enhanced Productivity From Increased CO, 

— Global Net Effect Uncertain 


These C02 projections are used in current 

CLIMATE MODELS TO PREDICT IMPORTANT CHANGES 
OVER THE NEXT 100 YEARS. THIS SET OF RESULTS 

?NDr? KEN FR0M „I HE National Research Council 
(NRC) report Changing Climate". 

Consensus predictions call for warming 

BETWEEN 1.5-4. 5 OC FOR DOUBLED C02 WITH 
GREATER WARMING AT THE POLES. NOTE THAT 
THESE NUMBERS REFLECT THE RANGE PRODUCED BY 

..ACf^ 81,6 M0DELS * R° ONE KNOWS HOW TO EVAL- 
UATE THE ABSOLUTE UNCERTAINTY IN THE NUM- 
BERS a 

The extent and thickness of glaciers are 

PREDICTED TO DECREASE, LEADING TO SEA LEVEL 

VALUP ftI H 7A MRC REP0RT CH0SE A MOST LIKELY 
VALUE OF 70 CM SEA LEVEL RISE. OTHER PRE- 

OICTXONS SUGGEST A BROADER RANGE FROM 30-200 

cm. The rise occurs both from a larger 

amount of water in the oceans, and from 

THERMAL EXPANSION. 



Finally, climate change and higher levels of 

ATMOSPHERIC C02 AFFECT AGRICULTURE AND 
ECOSYSTEMS. THERE ARE TWO ASPECTS. FIRST, 
THE DIRECT EFFECT OF CLIMATE CHANGE ALTERS 
THE LENGTH OF THE GROWING SEASON AND THE 
AVAILABILITY OF WATER. SECOND, NEARLY ALL 
PLANTS GROW MORE RAPIDLY, AND USE LESS 
WATER, IN A HIGH C02 ENVIRONMENT. THE 
SECOND EFFECT CAN BE QUITE POSITIVE FOR 
MANAGED AGRICULTURE. 

Models cannot yet predict regional climate 

CHANGE WITH MUCH ACCURACY. I AM SURE YOU 
HAVE ALL HEARD THAT THE US MID-WEST MAY 
BECOME A DUST BOWL FROM ENHANCED GREENHOUSE, 

while Russia may become more fruitful. That 

— ^ PROJECTION OF SOME MODELS, BUT OTHERS 
SHOW THE OPPOSITE. 

The climate model impacts of PEG are not all 
negative. They affect different parts of 

THE GLOBE UNEQUALLY. THE MODELS 
PREDICT VARIOUS WINNERS AND LOSERS. 

This completes the Greenhouse science dis- 
cussion. 

Summarizing: 

Data confirm that 

• Greenhouse gases are increasing 

IN THE ATMOSPHERE. 

• Fossil fuels contribute most of 
THE C02...BUT DEFORESTATION IS 
ALSO SIGNIFICANT. 



AND 

• Historical temperatures show only 

SLIGHT WARMING... NOT ENOUGH TO 
CONFIRM ENHANCED GREENHOUSE. 

That s all the data. 

Projections suggest 

• Significant climate change with a 

VARIETY OF REGIONAL IMPACTS. 

AND 

® Sea level rise with generally 

NEGATIVE CONSEQUENCES. 

Finally, the size and timing of impacts 

ARE UNCERTAIN. 


POTENTIAL EMMA^ ED fiflrmun^ p 

platers... 

• 

congress/president 

EM/DOE/STATE 

maa/nasa/nsf 

AND INK 

MEDIA 

• Jtt 

GENERAL ASSEMBLY - 

SSSUT”" °* UVI * man *» woomr 

• CANADA 

HUME MINISTER 

FEDERAL ENVIRONMENTAL MINISTRY 

• INTERNATIONAL COUNCIL OF SCIENTIFIC UNIONS 
i EEC 

0 OECD 

• ENVIRONMENTAL GROUPS 



# The key players on PEG are in the US and UN. 

in the US, Congress is very interested. 
Senators like Wirth, Mitchell, Baucus, and 
Gore have very high profiles. President 
Bush has committed to convene a global 
Greenhouse conference. Within the 

ADMINISTRATION, THE PLAYERS ARE EPA (WHICH 
HAS A PARTICULARLY CRITICAL ROLE THROUGH ITS 
INTERNATIONAL ACTIVITIES), DOE (WHICH 
SPONSORED AN EXTENSIVE REVIEW OF THE SUBJECT 
COMPLETED IN 1985) , AND THE STATE DEPARTMENT 
(WHOSE INTERESTS ARE DIRECTED TOWARDS 
INTERNATIONAL TREATIES AND CONVENTIONS). In 
ADDITION, TECHNICAL AGENCIES INCLUDING NOAA, 
NASA, AND NSF HAVE SIGNIFICANT ROLES. . .AND, 

OF COURSE, THE MEDIA IS VERY ACTIVE. 


All of these efforts are establishing links 
0THER NATI0NAL AND international inter- 

^STS. . .ESPECIALLY IN THE UN WHICH HAS DEVOT- 
ED A GREAT DEAL OF EFFORT TO PEG. The 

General Assembly established a world-wide 

COMMISSION HEAOED BY MmE. GRO BrunDTLAND 
(Prime Minister of Norway) to evaluate 
PROBLEMS OF ENVIRONMENTAL PROTECTION AND 

economic development. The commission's 

u^ T ;; , 0ur S 0MM0N CONTAINS a 

HEAVY DOSE OF GREENHOUSE CONCERNS ... ON 

« r ™I E ii AGR1CULT0RE ' ENERGV - • AND LISTS IT 
AS THE #1 ENVIRONMENTAL PROBLEM WE FACE 

the General Assembly has directed all of its 
with'peg T ° develop specific plans to deal 


U H n%pT:“ U* 710 " 5 Env «onmental Program 

(UNEP) is ONE OF THESE AGENCIES AND IT HAS 


23 



made PEG its #1 priority. UNEP. . . LIKE EPA 
HAS A CRITICAL ROLE. . .HAVING BEEN OIRECTEO 
TO DEVELOP DETAILED PLANS WITH THE WORLD 

Meteorological Organization (WMO) for action 

PROGRAMS AND POLICY PROPOSALS TO BE RECOM- 
MENDED TO THE GENERAL ASSEMBLY. 


There are numerous other players. The 
Canadians, including their Prime Minister 
and Federal Environmental Ministry, have 
BEEN. . .PERHAPS. . .THE MOST OUTSPOKEN GOVERN- 
MENT IN RESPONDING TO THE NEED FOR GREEN- 
HOUSE LIMITATIONS. THEY SPONSORED A WORLD 

Conference on PEG during this past 
JUNE... WHICH CALLED FOR 20% REDUCTION IN C02 
EMISSIONS BY 2010 WITH AN OVERALL GOAL OF 
REDUCTION ... AND A TAX ON FOSSIL FUELS TO 

fund alternate energy development. 

uUrn^ T fTfcm 0NAL Council 0F Scientific 
Unions (ICSU) is providing a forum for 

WORLD-WIDE SCIENTIFIC EFFORTS UNDER THE 
BANNER OF THE "INTERNATIONAL BIOPHYSICAL 

Icc?i* The Europeam Economic Community 

<EEC) is PURSUING ITS POSITION AND DEVELOPED 
COUNTRIES IN THE OECD HAVE ESTABLISHED 

or!™ TIES T ° PARTIC1PATE IN ™E EXPECTED 


Of course, numerous environmental 

GROUPS. . .INCLUDING HIGH PROFILE ORGANIZA- 
TIONS like The Greens, World Resources 
Institute, and National Resources Defense 

OUNCIL...HAVE NOW INVESTED A LOT OF TIME 
AND EFFORT IN EXPERTISE RELATED TO ENERGY 

and Greenhouse. Having invested significant 


24 



effort, they need... and intend... to have 

SIGNIFICANT IMPACT. 

SCHEDULED ACTi ymre - PCC 


• INTERGOVERNCNTAL PANEL ON CLIMATE CMM& 

(WITH hMO/ICSU) WIANSE 

• EPA REPORTS ON 

■ Jotwtxal Consequences fob US/Hobu» 

- HXTIfiATION/STABXLXZATION AfpMUCHES 

0 DOE 

- Assessment of RIO on Altebmate Enemy 

- INVENTOBV OF GbeENHOUSI 

- Analysis of Pbivate Scctob Oftzoms 
Policy Options to Limit Emissions 

• US/INTERNATIONAL SCIENCE ASSES9ENT 


• COORDINATE UORUWIK SCIENTIFIC ASSESSMENT WO/ICSII UM 

0 REGIONAL IMPACT ASSESSMENTS iaM 

1990 

• POLICY OPTIONS TO LIMIT CLIMATE CHANGE 1 990 

• international convention to limit climate ounces MIO 90 S 
IN E THE T ^r n r F .™ ESE EFF0RTS IS REFLECTED 

™ E I 0F activi ties currently sched- 
NOAa'amo^^c 1 - 6 ’ IM *“ ™ E US ' through 

S WITH WM0 AND Icsu T0 promote 

B^f 0M BE I WEEM GOVERNMENTS. . .AND EPA WAS TO 
report to Congress on both potential conse- 
ouences of PEG for the US/world an£!\ 
mitigation/stabilization approaches TO LIMIT 

this report « N0 “ z 

1989. DOE WILL BE VERY busy. In 1989, IT 


25 



• PEG ScSK " EP0RTS ° N VARI ° US ASPECTS 

• Assessing alternate energy R&D 

• Cataloguing Greenhouse gases 

• Analyzing energy options for the Pri- 
vate Sector 

AND 

• rn^ LUATING P0LICY OPTIONS FOR LIMITING 
C02 EMISSIONS 


Finally, NSF is planning a US/international 

SCIENCE ASSESSMENT BY 1990. 

SCIEWTTcrr *ff ENTLY COMNISSIONEO A WORLDWIDE 

I assessment designating who to 

WORK CLOSELY WITH ICSU. By THE WAY NSF 
ALS ° C00RDIMATE CLOSELY WITH THIS 

effort in developing its views. Regional 

IMPACT STUDIES ARE BEING SET UP USING CLI- 

^o TE loser E s LS J° d : ROJECT THC varioos winners 

PATTERMS change. This could be 
especially contentious because of the wide 

ROOM FOR INTERPRETATION IN APPLYING THE 1 
MODELS AND THE ENORMOUS POTENTIAL POLITICAL 
CONSEQUENCES. CONCURRENTLY. UNEP Wl“ 

2L2" T P ° LICY ° PTI0NS T0 LIMIT 

LIMATE CHANGE. ALL OF THESE ACTIVITIES ARE 

BEEN N MGEn R ™° MPLETI0N IM 1990 • UNEP HAS 
BEEN URGED TO AIM FOR AN INTERNATIONAL 

™i N S VE ?A T RLVn/ Efi 8Y AB ° UT 1995 - HWEVER, 

towaJs W92 SEEMS T0 BE ADVANCIHG 


26 



Given, the... 


• COMPLEXITY OF THE SCIENCE 

• enormous potential global impacts 

• diversity of the players 

AND 

• INTENSITY of their activities. . . 

Where is all this headed? I believe thebp 
™ oTT- • AND IT ' S R00TED » the™vol„- 

MLS xn JUST-COMPLETED MONTREAL PROTO- 

PR0TECT THE STRATOSPHERIC 03 LAYER 
BY LIMITING MAN-MADE CFCS. 4 


OZONE I AVPp 


EMHANCFD QRPFMH^i^p 


74 ✓ 

✓ 
✓ 
✓ 
✓ 
J 

✓ 

✓ 

✓ 


ATMOSPHERIC CHEM/PHYS 
GROWTH IN IfiFOl / I0O2I & |TRACE GASES) 
INDUSTRIAL SOURCES 
MODELS: END EFFECT PROJECTIONS 
CONCEPT OF 'DELAY* 
ENVIRONMENTAL CAUSE 

international ownership 

US/UN AXIS 

critical event 

CALL FOR ACTION 


✓ 76 

✓ 

✓ 


VIENNA CONVCMTin>i 

87 MONTREAL protocols * 

I 

TRY^N^PHYSICS^rr ™ E A ™° SPHER1C CHEMIS- 
TRY AND PHYSICS BEGAN WITH CONCERNS OVER Tur 

£y« T °As ST C TRAHSP0RTS ™e 03 

YER. AS THESE FEARS ABATED... IN 1974 
SOME SCIENTISTS' LABORATORY TESTS INDICATOR 

EMICALS (CFCS) BREAK DOWN UNDER THE KIND 


intense UV radiation that is present in 

THE STRATOSPHERE . . . WITH THE RESULTING CL AND 
OR ATOMS ATTACKING AND DESTROYING O3. 

Subsequently, it was established that the 

CFC CONCENTRATIONS WERE INCREASING IN THE 
STRATOSPHERE. THESE CFCs, OF COURSE, WERE 
EASILY TRACED TO MAN-MADE SOURCES AND INDUS- 
TRIAL APPLICATIONS. 

Extensive modeling exercises predicted... 

• The long term rate of 03 layer deteri- 
oration 

• The resulting increased UV penetration 

OF THE EARTH'S ATMOSPHERE 

AND 

• The serious potential repercussions 

LIKE INCREASED HUMAN CANCER RATES AND 
PLANT DAMAGE 

NOW THESE PREDICTED EFFECTS WERE WELL INTO 
THE FUTURE. So A CRUCIAL STEP WAS THE 
INTRODUCTION OF ,f A DELAY CONCEPT 11 BASED ON 
THE UNUSUAL CHEMICAL STABILITY OF CFCs IN 
THE LOWER ATMOSPHERE AND THE VERY LONG 
TRANSPORT TIMES FOR CFCs TO REACH THE UPPER 
STRATOSPHERE. THE REASONING WAS... THERE WAS 
AN ALREADY COMMITTED 03 LAYER DETERIORATION 
BASED ON CFCS ALREADY ”lN THE PIPELINE". 

THIS GAVE RISE TO AN ENVIRONMENTAL CAUSE 
WHICH WAS QUICKLY ADOPTED AS AN INTERNATION- 
AL issue. The players were basically simi- 
lar TO THOSE ORGANIZING AROUND THE CURRENT 



Greenhouse issue... primarily in the US and 
UN. When the US became actively in- 
volved. . .initiating COOPERATION WITH THE UN 
TO LIMIT WORLDWIDE CFC PRODUCTION AND 
SALES... ALL OF THE ELEMENTS WERE IN PLACE. 

But with all of this, progress began to 

LANGUISH AND THE EFFORT MIGHT WELL HAVE 
FOUNDERED, EXCEPT FOR THE DISCOVERY OF THE 

so-called ”03 Layer Hole” over Antarctica. 

I HIS WAS A MOST CRITICAL EVENT - ALTHOUGH 
ITS EXACT RELEVANCE TO CFC RELATED 03 LAYER 
DETERIORATION REMAINS UNEXPLAINED. It 
RE- ENERGIZED THE EFFORT AND DIRECTLY LED TO 
A CALL FOR ACTION” AND THE VIENNA CONVEN- 
TION . Shortly thereafter ... in 1987 ... The 
MONTREAL PROTOCOLS TO LIMIT CFCS WITH A 
PHASED 50% REDUCTION BY THE TURN OF THE 
CENTURY WERE APPROVED AND ARE EXPECTED TO BE 
ADOPTED. I SHOULD ADD THAT IN 1988. . .JUST 
WITHIN THE PAST 6 MONTHS OR SO... THERE IS 
FOR THE FIRST TIME CONVINCING SCIENTIFIC 
EVIDENCE THAT 03 LAYER DETERIORATION HAS 
BEEN DETECTED. So THAT AFTER thf 
£A£J. . .SOME ACTION SEEMS JUSTIFIED. 


NOW, I HOPE FROM THE MATERIAL COVERED ON 

Greenhouse so far. ..it is clear that we have 

ADVANCED THROUGH SIMILAR STAGES. A CRITICAL 

fS" °? CURRED WI ™ ™E "LONG hot summer of 
80 . Although most responsible scientists 

BELIEVE THIS WAS DUE TO NATURAL FLUCTUATIONS 
IN WEATHER PATTERNS ... IT HAS DRAWN MUCH 
ATTENTION TO THE POTENTIAL PROBLEMS AND 
WE RE STARTING TO HEAR THE INEVITABLE CALL 

for action. Exactly what happens now is not 


CLEAR... BUT THIS CRITICAL EVENT NAS ENER- 
GIZED the Greenhouse effort and raised 
public concern over PEG. 


SOME KEY PEBCEPTIOMS/iflflfflfpfjrcg 




' "PEG" IS PART OF/CLOSELY LINKED TO "Oj LAYER PROTECTION* 

ENOUGH RESEARCH NAS IEEN DONE 
* Existinci or PEG Is Now Estmlismd 
- Advancing tni Sciknck Will Takc Too Loot 
*88 SUMgR IMS DUE TO PEG 
CAN'T TOLERATE DELAY 
NEED POLICY DEVELOPMENT NOW 

PROJECTED SHIFTS IN HEATHER HILL FEATURE IIG MINNCRS AND 
LOSERS HITH MAJOR POLITICAL IWLICATIONS 

DEVELOPED COUNTRIES HILL SHIFT RESOURCES TO DEVELOPING COUNTWKS 
NUCLEAR AND/OR RENEUABLE ENERGY RESOURCES CAN SOLVE THE PROOL0I 


OVERALL. 


0 RISK FROM PEG CLIMATE CHANGES IS NOT ACCEPTABU 

•■1ST DEVELOP (IMPLEMENT) CONTROL POLICIES MOM 

™ IS r “*-ity, there are some key 

n«. uI™" S i N ° HISC °NCEPTIONS WE'LL HAVE TO 
The F1RST MISCONCEp rrON IS THAT 
PK AHO 03 LAYER ARE SOMEHOW THE SAME PROB- 
LEM. ..OR AT LEAST CLOSELY LINKED. THIS IS 
PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS BECAUSE THE TWO 

ARE ' 1N FACT ' VERY 01 P«PENT AND 
EFFECTIVE SOLUTIONS ARE BOUND TO BE VERY 

DIFFERENT... BANNING A SINGLE CLASS OF 
MAN-HADE CFC CHEMICALS IS VERY DIFFI- 
CULT. . . BUT PALES BY COMPARISON TO THE 
DIFFICULTIES OF APPLYING SIMILAR APPROACHES 
TO LIFE CYCLE GASES LIKE C02 AND WATER. 



The second misconception is that enough 

RESEARCH ON THE BASIC PROBLEM HAS BEEN DONE 

Failure to understand the need for substan- 

TIAL ADVANCES IN THE SCIENCE TO REDUCE THE 
UNCERTAINTY AND EXTREME VARIABILITY IN THE 
PROJECTIONS CAN LEAD TO PREMATURE LIMITA- 
TIONS ON FOSSIL FUELS. 


USING THE '88 SUMMER WEATHER PATTERNS AS 
PART OF THIS ARGUMENT. . .THE THIRD MISCONCEP- 
TION... IS SIMPLY INCORRECT. 

Arguments that we can't tolerate delay and 

MUST ACT NOW CAN LEAD TO IRREVERSIBLE AND 

costly Draconian steps. 

Projecting PEG induced climatic regional 

WINNERS AND LOSERS. . .AND COMPETITION BETWEEN 
DEVELOPED AND DEVELOPING COUNTRIES IN RA- 
TIONING ENERGY TO LIMIT PEG... COULD EASILY 
DOMINATE ANY DEBATE AND MAKE RATIONAL CO- 
OPERATION LESS LIKELY. 

There have been dramatic shifts in attitudes 

TOWARDS NUCLEAR ENERGY BY ENVIRONMENTAL 
GROUPS BECAUSE OF THEIR CONCERNS OVER PEG. 

Furthermore, renewable energy advocates have 
traditionally overstated capabilities 

SHTitt rn 7 ?. TEND T0 ENC0URAGE * PRECIPITOUS 
SHIFT TO ALTERNATE ENERGY AND UNDERSTATE THF 

CONSIDERABLE DIFFICULTIES WHICH mSst BE 
OVERCOME. 6 


31 



WHAT S NEXT 


Expect: 

• Continued Pressure to... 

OVERSTATE SCIENTIFIC UNOERSTANDINQ 

• Prominent Medis Role to... 

INCREASE PUBLIC CONCERNS 

• More Initistives to... 

INCREASE PACE OF INTERNATIONAL NEGOTIATIONS 



'Crisis Mentality* 


Bationsl ReaponA*. R ftfl|) j rt1 - 

• Efforts to... 

EXTEND THE SCIENCE 

• Emphasis on... 
COSTS/POLITICAL REALITIES 



'Adaptation' 


as for What's Next"... we can expect contin 
UED PRESSURE TO OVERSTATE CURRENT SCIENTIFIC 

sST t ..SET 

“ MENT ‘" IS LIICELY TO INCREASE PUBLIC 
WARENESS AND CONCERN, AND THERE WILL BE 
CONTINUING INITIATIVES TO EXTEND INTERNA- 
TIONAL NEGOTIATIONS. As THE DEGREE OF THESE 
EFFORTS EXCEED UNDERSTANDING (OR ABILITY^ 
RESPOND CONSTRUCTIVELY) . . .THERE is l ^j®. 

Z™" A " CRISIS mentality." Meanwhile 
RATIONAL responses will require efforts 

"ADAPTIVE" mpaci m!f CAL REALITIES T <> FRAME 

measures which are doable and 
move towards constructive options. 

EXXON’S PORiTinM 

• IMPROVE UNDERSTANDING 

Extend the Science 
Include the Coats/Economica 
Face the Socio-Political Realitiea 

• STRESS ENVIRONMENTALLY SOUND ADAPTIVE EFFORTS 

Support Conaervation wi-ohts 

Restrict CFCa 

Improve Global Re/De Forestation 



TO BE A RESPONSIBLE PARTICIPANT AND PART OF 
THE SOLUTION TO PEG, EXXON'S POSITION SHOULD 
RECOGNIZE AND SUPPORT 2 BASIC SOCIETAL 

needs. First. ..to improve understanding of 

THE PROBLEM. . .NOT JUST THE SCIENCE. .. BUT THE 
COSTS AND ECONOMICS TEMPERED BY THE SOCIO- 
POLITICAL realities. That's going to take 

YEARS (PROBABLY DECADES). BUT THERE ARE 
MEASURES ALREADY UNDERWAY THAT WILL IMPROVE 
OUR ENVIRONMENT IN VARIOUS WAYS... AND IN 
ADDITION REDUCE THE GROWTH IN GREENHOUSE 

gases. That's the second need including 

THINGS LIKE ENERGY CONSERVATION, RESTRICTION 
OF CFC EMISSIONS, AND EFFORTS TO INCREASE 
THE GLOBAL RATIO OF Re/De FORESTATION. 

Of course, we'll need to develop other 
RESPONSE OPTIONS. . .IMPLEMENTING MEASURES 
WHEN THEY ARE COST EFFECTIVE IN THE NEAR 
TERM AND PURSUING NEW TECHNOLOGIES FOR THE 
FUTURE.