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FINANCIAL TIMES 



Europe’s Business Nevvsoapf 


Labour to press 
minister on fresh 


arms* 


claim 



British foreign secretary Douglas Hurd will face 
intense questioning from Opposition MPa this week 
ov , er ®nnS'foi u aid" allegations. Shadow foreign seo 
retaij Robin. Cook said it looked likely that the Per- 
gauaazn project in Malaysia was not “the only c a s e 
of aid following arms sales". He added: “There is a 
disturbing pattern in a number of countries of big 
rises in our aid to them, following big arms orders 
by them." His remarks followed reports in The 
Observer newspaper that Britain is a«n«Mfa g a 
large arms deal with faring pfta soon after renewing 
pledges of aid. Tories face new EU row, Page 7 

Schumacher takes world championship 

Michael Schumacher 
'■ »#*. (left) became Germany's 
first world drivers’ cham- 
pion despite faffing to 
finish in the Australian 
grand prix in Adelaide. 
His Benetton-Fond was in 
collision with the Wfi- 
hamsJten&utt being 
driven by British rival 
Damon. HM on the 36th 
lap. Both drivers were 
forced to retire, leaving 
S chumacher one champi- 
onship point ahead of 

— — - — Hill in the last race of 

the season. The 81-lap race was won by Britain’s 
Nigel Mansell in a second WUliams. Page 14 

Bankers Trust mom axecutfvess Bankers 
Trust, the US bank that faces two lawsuits over 
derivative instruments it sold, hag moved six.execn- 
tives oat of their jobs afer the discovery of appar- . 
ent irregularities in Its derivatives operations. 

Page 15 

P a iw tWm detain ISO after bombing: 

Palestinian police arrested more than x50 Islamic 
Jihad activists in the Gaza Strip following the sui- 
cide bombing which killed three Israeli reserve offi- 
cers. Page 5 

Barclays sells US cmBt arm: Barclays has 
reached agreement to sell its asset-based lending 
business in the US for a premium of $29Qm over its 
book value, a price which reflects the company's 
strong track record. The buyer is New England- , 
based banking group Sbawmut Page 16 

Weak recovery hits .Japanese steelmakers: 

Hie weakness of Japan's economic recovery and 
worldwide cofopetition pt A j fea asure on the cmair 
try's integrated steel rmt E B ^Fi d rich tinted d&e®- 
pointlng half-year. regrifis and passed their interim 
dividends. Page 17; Lex, Page 14; Sweet and sour 
flow from British Steel;. Plage 15 

Bhutto ar r es ts opposition I sader ** ftrthen 

Pakistani prime aunisbear Benazir Bhutto ordered 
the arrest of the 75-year-old father of opposition 
leader Nawaz Sbarifl Page 6 

Iberia crfsEr majrlead to break-up: The ■■ 

managaxgaft of Iberia, Spate's jfoancially crippled 
and striEe&t aSritoe, said it would break up the 
company unless unions agree to drastic wage cuts. 
Pages 

Johnson Mammy and Cookson may merges 

UKptodous metals group Johnson Matthey and 
^edaEstmdustrialmateriaisgroup.Cooksoaiare 
considering imerger. Page Iff ■ 

Maws Con> and Tefcrfra In Joint venture: 

Rupert Murdoch's News Corporatum and Telstra, 
Australia’s large goranHnesutdwned tetecoromunt- 
- cations group, formed a A$lbn (US$752m) joint ven- 
ture to provide pay-TV services. Page 17 , 

National Parking to reveal buy-out plan: 

National Parking Corporation is to reveal details of 
a leveraged buy-out by venture capital Institutions, 
expected to value the business at about £650m. NPC 
owns National Car Parks, the biggest operator of 
car parks in the UK. Page 15 

Irish Inborn party delays (leclsion: The hish 
Labour party delayed a decision cm whether It 
would withdraw from prime minister Albert Reyn- 
olds’ coalition government Page 14 • 

Hijackers surrender. Hijackers who seised an 
Algerian aircraft on an internal flight and farced it 
to fly to Majorca, surrendered and asked for politi- 
cal asylum. They had sought the release of all poKt- 
ical prisoners In Algeria. 

European Monetary System: The Irish punt 
slipped from second to fourth place in the EMSgrid 
jast week as staging gave up scone of its recent 
gains and the French tranc Ml a place as political 
uncertfanty started toiirey on it The spread . 
between tc^ and btrttom currmcy was barely 
sltered. Cnrrencies. Page 25. ; 

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Public agencies planned for Euro-wide projects 

By Lionel Barber in Brussels especially if the planned agencies and Ecus 30bn for energy. Some York-New Jersey area, including Other offfcfofr said the immedi- expense of the HST South 

_ _ . . are given borrowing powers. Ecus 230bn would be invested by JFK airport. Their regulatory ate issue was lack of co- favoured by Spain. Officials are 

The European Commission is Mr Jacques Delors, outgoing the end of the century, according powers may could be modelled on ordination an 11 priority projects concerned that the Madrid- 

. drawing ud ’proposals for public president of the Eumnean Com- to the hfeh-level rpnnrt Hie mr semplM nhipli enna m tim Hinmiml fn nrlnnnla Hif hoa<1r nf Dsnulnn. l<«b kn 


The European Commission is 
drawing 19 proposals for public 
agencies to coordinate trsns- 
European networks, the multi- bil- 
lion-doBar rail, road and telecom- 
munications projects expected to 
span Europe in the 21st century. 

The proposals signal a new 
approach to meeting the chal- 
lenge of funding, building and 
regulating cross-border infra- 
structure projects. Bat they may 
prove controversial among sover- 
eignty-conscious member states. 


especially if the planned agencies 
are given borrowing powers. 

Mr Jacques Delors, outgoing 
president of the European Com- 
mission, intends to present the 
proposals at the European sum- 
mit in Essen next month. His 
goal is to revitalise private-sector 
interest in the networks. 

Mr Delors has already calcu- 
lated that the total cost of the 
projects would be Ecus 4O0bn 
($5i0bn), much of it drawn from 
national budgets. Of that. Ecus 
2201m would be for transport pro- 
jects, Ecus ISObn for telecoms, 


and Ecus 30bn for energy. Some 
Ecus 230bn would be invested by 
the end of the century, according 
to the high-level report. 

The idea of creating Euro- 
agencies to coordinate the finan- 
cing, operation and regulation of 
the networks is based on the con- 
clusions of a report from a task 
force of top officials from EU 
member states. 

Possible models include the 
New York Port Authority, which 
is responsible for the operation 
and regulation of all bridges, tun- 
nels and airports in the New 


York-New Jersey area, including 
JFK airport. Their regulatory 
powers may could be modelled on 
the UK agencies which supervise 
the privatised utilities. 

The draft report blames net- 
work delays on technical and 
administrative hurdles rather 
than lack of capital Obstacles 
include incompatible national 
standards, a lack of cooperation 
among member states, and a 
reluctance in some quarters to 
abandon national monopolies and 
open up transport systems to pri- 
vate investors. 


Other offiffak? said the immedi- 
ate issue was lack of co- 
ordination an 11 priority projects 
approved in principle by heads of 
government at the European 
summit in Corfu last June. 

• The planned high-speed train 
between Paris-Brussels-Cologne- 
Amsterdam-London risks being 
delayed because Belgian railways 
is short of finance. Meanwhile, 
Germany is pressing ahead with 
the Aachen-Cologne link. 

• France is moving fast on the 
Faris-Strasbourg link in the High 
Speed Train East, bnt at the 


expense of the HST South 
favoured by Spain. Officials are 
concerned that the Madrid- 
Barcelona link may be completed 
far sooner than the link between 
Perpignan and Montpellier in 
southern France. 

• The Betuwe line between Rot- 
terdam and the German Ruhr is 
being delayed by the Dutch gov- 
ernment’s desire to examine the 
environmental impact. 

Mr Henning Christophers en. 

Continued on Page 14 
EU fraud inquiry, Page 14 


Politicians relieved as voters 


back Union by clear margin 

Sweden 
says Yes to 
joining EU 


By Hugh Camegy and 
Christopher Brown-Humos 
in Stockholm 

Sweden yesterday voted by a 
dear margin to Join the Euro- 
pean Union, keeping on course 
the EITs plan to enlarge from 12 
to 16 members next year. 

With counting complete in all 
but a few districts, the result 
stood at 52-1 par cent in favour of 
membership and .47 ser„:ca&t_ 
against. . 

Just under 1 per cent cast 
blank votes. 

The vote followed decisive 
approval of membership earlier 
this year by Austria and Finland. 
It increases the chances of a Yes 
vote in Norway, which will be 
the last of the four European 
Free Trade Area applicants to 
vote in a referendum due on 
November 28. 

. The result was greeted with 
relief in- both Stockholm and 
Brussels. 

The Swedish EU opposition, 
spearheaded by leftwingers and 
environmentalists, mounted a 
strong campaign, arguing that 
membership threatened Sweden’s 
democracy and welfare system. 

T am certainly impressed," 
said Mr Hans Van den Broek. the 
EU commissioner for external 
affairs. *1 can say an behalf of 
the European Commission that 
we are very much encouraged by 
this result 

*T think it is a real Impulse 
towards further good co- 
operation within the European 
Union when Swedes say we want 
to be a member of this Union" 

The EU feared that if the Efta 
enlargement plan stumbled. It 
could derail plans already in 


train to build closer ties with - 
and eventually offer membership 
to - six countries in eastern and 
central Europe. 

As recently as one week ago 
polls indicated the No campaig n 
had a strong chance of victory, in 
spite of facing the combined 
pro-EU resources of the political 
establishment, led by Mr Ingvar 
Carlsson, the social democratic 
prime minister, Mr Carl Bildt the 
conservative former prime minis- 
ter, industrial and cade union, 
leaders, the main fanners' urgan- 
. isation and most of the national 
newspapers. 

Attention will next swing to 
Norway where opinion polls con- 
tinue to show a strong lead for 
the No campaign, which defeated 
an earlier bid to join the Euro- 
pean Economic Community in a 
referendum in 1972. 

Mrs Gro Harlem Brundtland’s 
Labour government has all along 
gambled that a Yes vote in neigh- 
bouring Sweden would provide 
the necessary impetus to swing 
the electorate towards member- 
ship. 

Late last week, one opinion 
poll, in the newspaper Aftenpos- 
ten, showed for the first time in 
months the Yes camp moving 
ahead of the opposition if Sweden 
accepted membership. The poll 
showed a Yes lead of 46 per cent 
to 41 per cent 

In Sweden, a powerful appeal 
for a Yes vote made over the past 
few days of the campaign by the 
political establishment appeared 
to have won over many of the 
large number of voters who did 
not make up their minds until 
just before voting. 



US president Bin Clinton and his wife Hillary tour the American cemetery in Manila yesterday where mare than 17,000 second world war 
victims are buried. Mr Clinton’s visit to the Philippines is the the first by a US president since Gerald Ford in 1975 


Microsoft to open on-line network 


By Louise Kefme 
In San Francisco 

Mr Bill Gates, chairman of 
Microsoft, the world’s largest 
computer software company, will 
announce plans for a worldwide 
on-line information service for 
personal computer users today. 
Microsoft is expected to undercut 
competitors' prices by about half. 

The company’s entry into 
on-line services is a serious chal- 
lenge to existing services such as 
CompuServe, Prodigy and Amer- 
ica Online, which at present lead 
the market with a combined sub- 
scriber base of about 6m users. 

Microsoft's long-anticipated 
move reflects its desire to play a 
central role in the development 
of “information superhighways”. 
It is also a significant step 
towards fulfilling Mr Gates's 
vision of putting information “at 
the fingertips" of all PC users. 

The Microsoft network is 
expected to be activated next 
spring and to incorporate a range 
of services - among them, shop- 
ping catalogues, financial ser- 


Worldwide service for users of PCs 
will undercut competitors’ prices 


vices, news services and refer- 
ence works including an on-line 
encyclopedia. Uke existing ser- 
vices, Microsoft’s will include 
electronic mail, bulletin boards 
and “chat" services that allow 
subscribers to engage in discus- 
sion groups, as well as links to 
the Internet, the global computer 
network. 

Instead of charging users 


according to the length of time 
they are connected to the service, 
Microsoft will keep basic fees low 
and add “subscription" charges 
for access to selected news and 
mfbnnattoiL 

Microsoft has been seeking to 
attract publishers to become 
“content providers” for its net- 
work by promising them a larger 
share of revenues than the 20 per 


cent to 30 per cent typically 
offered by existing services and 
by offering on-line advertising. 
The software company has also 
developed software “tools" can be 
used to create electronic versions 
of print publications. 

Access to the Microsoft net- 
work will be incorporated in Win- 
dows 95, a forthcoming version of 
the popular Windows PC pro- 
gram. Only by purchasing the 
new program will PC users be 
able to use the Microsoft on-line 

Continued on Page 14 


China calls for summit over 
entry into world trade body 


By Guy de Jonqui&res and 
Peter Montagnon in Jakarta 

China said yesterday that its 
negotiations to become a founder 
member of the World Trade 
Organisation next January faced 
stalemate unless government 
leaders in Beijing and Washing- 
ton intervened directly. 

• Speaking before a meeting in 
Jakarta today between President 
Bill CBnton of the US and Presi- 
dent Jiang Zemin of China, Mr 
Long Yong To, Beijing’s chief 
trade negotiator, said the talks 
~h qd become so difficult that min- 
isters and officials could not com- 
plete them on their own. 

* He accused Washington of 
holding up toe talks by making 
.arbitrary and frequently chang- 
ing-demands. Although China 
offered what Mr Long called 
“very important" concessions - 
inrHurtfag a sharp increase in the 


number of Chinese cities open to 
foreign banks - the US bad not 
responded positively, he said. 

Bfr Long also appeared cool 
towards recent US and EU sug- 
gestions that they would be 
ready, if necessary, to extend the 
talks beyond the end of this year. 
He said Beijing regarded the 
deadline for entering the WTO as 
important and should not be 
expected to make any further 
concessions once it had passed. 

“We are really at the end of our 
patience," he said. He hinted that 
Beijing might even walk away 
from the tafirg if no further prog- 
ress was marie soon. “We know 
China can do very well without 
Galt (General Agreement on Tar- 
iffs and TradeJ." 

However, Mr Mickey Kantor, 
Mr Clinton’s trade representa- 
tive, insisted that progress in the 
talks depended on China. He said 
after a meeting with Ms Wu Yi, 


CONTENTS 


China’s foreign trade minister, 
that most countries on the Gatt 
committee dealing with China's 
application agreed that Beijing 
bad not moved far enough to 
open its market. 

“I am not persuaded that we 
can finish our negotiations by 
the end of the year, but we will 
make every effort," Mr Kantor 
said. 

Mr Long did not role out mak- 
ing more concessions in talks 
with the US next month. How- 
ever, he complained that every 
time China had sought to meet 
US demands, Washington had 
responded by asking for more. 

He also accused the US of “dou- 
ble standards" in pursuing 
aggressive unilateral trade poli- 
cies while claiming to uphold the 
world trade system. “They never 
take Gatt seriously." 

China ‘losing patience*. Page 6 


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NEWS: EUROPE 


Chirac and Balladur dent presidential hopes 

Gaullism’s rivals 
suffer setbacks 


France’s employers to 



‘ft**-. 


By David Buchan to Paris 

GauHism's rival candidates for 
the French presidency next 
year each took a serious knock 
at the weekend, with prime 
minister Edouard Balladur los- 
ing a third minis ter to a politi- 
cal funding scandal and Mr 
Jacques Chirac winning only 
partial party backing in his 
campaign for for the Elys£e. 

Mr Michel Roussin resigned 
on Saturday as aid minister in 
advance of the expected move 
by a magistrate to charge him 
this week in a case involving 
alleged bribes on housing con- 
tracts in 1992 when he headed 
Mr Chirac's office as mayor of 
Paris. 

Mr Balladur has appointed 
Professor Bernard Debre to 
replace him. As he did to plug 
the ear lier minis terial gaps left 
by Mr Gerard Longuet and Mr 
Alain Carignon, the prime min- 
ister has simply replaced one 
Gaullist RPR party supporter 
of his with another. 

Several other ministers have 
been Qeetingly mentioned in 
the context of various current 
inquiries into political funding, 
and Mr Charles Pasqua, the 
interior minister, had urged Mr 
Balladur to reshuffle his gov- 
ernment 

But the RPR prime minister 
preferred not to disturb the 
delicate political balance of his 
government In coalition with 
the centre-right UDF less than 


THE FINANCIAL TIMES 
Published by The Financial Times 
(Enropcl GmbH. Nibelnncenplau 3. 
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Telephone +-*49 W 156 850, Fax ++49 
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by Humyct InrcmaiiofulL ISSN: ISSN 
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ited. Number One Souihrark Bridge. 
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arc The Financial Times 1 Enropcl Ltd. 
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DENMARK: Financial Times (Scandin- 
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DK-1161 Copenhagen K. Telephone 33 
13 44 41. Fax 33 93 53 35. 


The French authorities yesterday placed into custody 77 of the 
95 suspected Islamic militants arrested last Tuesday, writes 
Andrew Jack in Paris. 

All but one of the 78 people still held until Saturday were 
to one of five prisons across Paris yesterday after being 
questioned by investigating magistrates. They included French, 
Al g erian, Moroccan and Russian citizens. Seventeen had been 
released in the last few days. 

They face charges including acts linked to the planning of 
terrorism, theft, falsification of documents, undenrdning the 
state and breaches of the laws concerning weapons and 
explosives. 

The police crackdown last Tuesday - which was primarily in 
the Paris region - was the second such large-scale action since 
the summer, and led to the seizure of arms and forged 
documents. 

Mr Charles Pasqua, the interior minister, said the raids fol- 
lowed surveillance of the Armed Islamic Group (GIA), which bad 
a network with branches in Germany, Britain, Italy, the Nether- 
lands and Canada. 


six months before the presiden- 
tial election. The extraordinary 
feature of Prof Debre's appoint- 
ment is that he has a parallel 
medical career as head of the 
Cochin hospital’s urological 
unit, and that in 1992 and 
again this year it was he who 
led the team that operated on 
President Francois Mitterrand 
for prostate cancer. 

In the Balladur government, 
therefore, now sits someone 
who probably knows more 
than anyone else about the 
president’s illness - the chief 
factor that has unleashed fero- 
cious presidential rivalries so 
far ahead of the final voting 
round on May 7. 

Meanwhile, Mr Chirac's plan 
to organise a rousing send-off 
from the RPR to his presiden- 
tial campaign partially mis- 
fired on Saturday. 

The 1,700 RPR delegates at a 
special meeting in Paris 
cheered Mr Chirac's often bit- 
ter and scarcely veiled swipes 
at Mr Balladur, but barely 
passed a motion of "testimony 
and confidence" in the man 
who created the RPR in its 
present form 18 years ago and 
led the party until his resigna- 
tion on Saturday. 

The worrying fact for Mr 
Chirac was not that the special 
congress was boycotted by Mr 
Balladur, who chose to attend 
a mountain rescue demonstra- 
tion near his Alpine chalet, or 
by the prime minister’s back- 
ers, but that it was shunned by 
several Gaullist heavyweights, 
notably Mr Philippe Seguin, 
the National Assembly presi- 
dent, who with Mr Alain 
Juppe, the foreign minister, co- 
presides over the sew Chirac- 
for-President committee. Mr 
Seguin's real objection is said 


to be jealousy that Mr Jupp6 
has now become interim presi- 
dent of the RPR. 

But, publicly, Mr S&guin 
complained that the Saturday 
meeting smacked of an attempt 
to get the RPR to endorse Mr 
Chirac as its only candidate, 
going against the spirit of De 
Gaulle's Fifth Republic. This 
held that presidential elections 
are a matter between candi- 
dates and the people, with lit- 
tle or no formal role for party 
machines. 

Mr Seguin warned that “in 
refusing to publicly own up to 
each other's candidacy", Mr 
Chirac and Mr Balladur were 
“engaged In a suicidal logic” 
and weakening each other and 
“smoothing the way for a third 
man - Jacques Debra". 

If the European Commission 
president were rapidly to give 
in to the Socialist party’s blan- 
dishments and to declare that 
he will start running for the 
Elys6e when he leaves Brussels 
late next January, this could 
quickly shock the warring 
Gaullists into closing ranks. 
Mr Delors is running level with 
Mr Balladur in the opinion 
polls, with Mr Chirac still a bit 
behind both. 

But last week in Paris Mr 
Delors said he was still "not at 
the end of my reflection”. This 
includes weighing personal fac- 
tors such as his desire for a 
rest after 10 years of hard ser- 
vice for the European Union. 

There are also electoral 
uncertainties - such as the 
real odds on Him winning and 
subsequently gaming a govern- 
ing majority after 14 years of 
socialism in the Elysde and 
after the socialists suffered 
such a parliamentary landslide 
defeat only 18 months ago. 


By John Riddtog in Paris 

After months of campaigning. 
France’s presidential hopefuls 
today face the moment of 
truth when their candidacies 
are put to the vote. Not the 
election to replace Mr Francois 
Mitterrand at the Eiysfce pal- 
ace. but to determine who will 
become the nest president of 
the Patrouat, the French 
employers’ federation. 

The 36 members of the 
Patronat's executive council 
are set to choose between two 
candidates - Mr Jean Gandois, 
the former chairman of Pecb- 
iney, the state-owned alumin- 
ium and packaging group, and 
Mr Jean-Louis Giral, head of 
the family-run building con- 
tractor DdBquenne et Giral. if 
a clear majority is reached the 
decision should be endorsed by 
the organisation's 536-member 
general assembly next month. 

There is much at stake. The 
next “boss of bosses" will be 
faced with the task of revital- 
ising the organisation, which 
has traditionally played an 
important role in forming eco- 
nomic and labour policy, but 
which has seen its influence 
recede somewhat in recent 
years. The decline of planning 
in the French economy, the 
reduction in union power, and 
divisions within the organisa- 
tion have given it a less cen- 
tral role. The successor to Mr 
Francois Perl got will also take 
the reins at a time when 
French business has been 
tarnished by a series of cor- 
ruption scandals. 

Despite their differences - 




} 


Jean Gandois (left), ex-head of Pechiney, the aluminium and packaging group, is favourite to succeed Fran?ote Perigoi {right^ 


Mr Gandois is a captain of big 
industry, bis rival a champion 
of small and medium-sized 
companies - the two candi- 
dates agree on many policy 
areas. Both believe that the 
contributions payed by 
employers to the social secu- 
rity budget should be further 
reduced, particularly in the 
case of small companies, to 
stimulate employment 
Similarly, they are in accord 
about the need to clarify the 
rules concerning political 
funding and the need to 
respect judicial secrecy in cor- 
ruption investigations. “We 
must stop this massacre 
game”, said Mr Giral, alter Mr 
Jean-Louis Beffa, chairman of 
Saint Gobain, the glass and 
packaging gr o up, was placed 


under investigation in a cor- 
ruption probe. 

But there are several impor- 
tant areas of disagreement Mr 
Gandois, who remains chair- 
mail of CockeriH-Sambre, the 
Belgian steel group, is a con- 
vinced European. His rival is a 
Euro-sceptic, dubious about 
the virtues of tight monetary 
policy. “This is the first time 
there has been a doctrinal dis- 
agreement in the Patrouat 
contest" says one official at 
the organisation. 

With French presidential 
elections just six months 
away, the two candidates are 
also divided on political alle- 
giances. Mr Giral, a local 
councillor for the Gaullist 
RPR party, is dose to Mr Jac- 
ques Chirac. Mr Gandois is 


more eclectic in hi? political 
ties, claiming dose relations 
with all mainstream parties. 
Favourable to the economic 
policies of Mr Edouard Balter 
(fur's centre-right government, 

he says, however, that ‘fit is 
regrettable that Important 
reforms which need to be 
taken have not been”. 

A further important diver- 
gence concerns theft vision for 
the Patronat Mr Gandois has 
more ambitious objectives 
than. Iris rival, seeking to 
develop a “force for proposals” 
on all importa n t economic pol- 
icy issues, from unemploy- 
ment and taxation to Euro- 
pean integration. He is 
seeking stronger direction at 
the Patronat, which has been 
weakened by attempts to find 


consensus among a member- 
shlp.fckxeasiqefc Arideddver 
issues such as tfc&Gott negoft. 
ations on trade ffberaBsaf&L 
“If you seek consensu. on 
everything, you wm De left 
behind,” says Mr Ganddta. 

Such an ap p ro a ch has igt 
fled feathers among the PatnK 
nafs members. But many busi- 
ness leaden are sympathetic 
to such a view. Hie dtotosaa 
of one leading industrial' 
group said: "France needs 1 
important social aid economic . 
reforms. So we need to find a 
strong voice to direct the 
debate.” For most observers, 
the voice is fikdy to be that of 
Mr Gandofe. But offlrfafa at 
the Patronat caution that toe 
contest has been the dosest 
for many years. 


Pride of place in French wallets 


By Andrew Jack in Paris 

It might seem a little strange 
to commemorate an unassum- 
ing piece of plastic, but the 
French can be justly proud of a 
pioneering payment system 
that has just turned 10 years 
old and remains far ahead of 
its equivalents in other coun- 
tries: the carte bancaire 
system. 

While the British still strug- 
gle with rival and incompatible 
banking networks, and the US 
has only recently begun to 
move towards a single system, 
far a decade the French have 
been able to withdraw cash 
from the dispenser of any bank 
around their country - and in 
many other places around the 
world. 

For longer still - since 1967 - 
they have been used to paying 
for their purchases in shops 
electronically with a plastic 
card, in stark contrast to the 


"Switch” system in the UK, for 
example, which has only just 
started to make progress 
against cash. 

The history of the banking 
card and the development of 
the inter-banking system repre- 
sent a uniquely French blend 
of co-operation over competi- 
tion and an obsessive interest 
in developing new technology. 

Many of the French refer to 
the plastic bank card in then- 
wallet as the carle bleu. In fact, 
until a decade ago, this was the 
trade name for only one of 
three intensely competitive 
and incompatible systems with 
different cards, procedures and 
equipment. 

Twenty-seven years ago. the 
carte bleu charge card was 
launched jointly by Basque 
Nationale de Paris, Credit 
Lyonnais, Society G6n6rale, 
Credit Indnstriel et Commer- 
cial and Credit Commercial de 
France. Within a year, 25,000 


merchants were accepting the 
265,000 cards far payments for 
goods and services. 

Four years later, in 1971, 
magnetic strips were added to 
the cards, allowing withdraw- 
als from cash dispensers at 
banks around the country. 
Rival national systems were 
established by Crikfit Agricole 
and Credit MutueL 

While the carte bleu ne twor k 
began to add new member 
hanks and sign an a greeme nt 
internationally with Visa, 
Credit Agricole launched a 
“Contact” card - renamed the 
carte verte in 1978 - and finked 
up in other countries with 
MasterCard. 

The battle between the 
“green" and the “blue" cards 
and with Credit Mutnel's rival 
network came to a head in 
1S84, when the three groupings 
agreed to co-operate with a sin- 
gle national network. The new 
name was “CB" - for carte ban- 


earn - with both colours diplo- 
matically included in the 
itong n of the card. 

At that time, there were 
315,000 merchants and 7,200 
automatic teller machines 
accepting 13.8m cards. Ten 
years later, the figures have 
shot up impressively: 530,000 
retailers and 19,000 ATMs 
accepting 22m cards. There are 
more than 22bn transactions 
involving payments of 
FFrSllbn (£61bn) and with- 
drawals of FFr62&n in 1991 

“Success was not guaran- 
teed," recalls Mr Claude 
Menesguen, gHnfrmfln of the 
Groupement des Cartes Ban- 
caires, the association of the 
banks that administers the sys- 
tem. “Getting institutions with 
different views and interests to 
work together was not 
dear-cut” 

Innovation did not stop with 
co-operation between the 
banks, however. Back in 1963, 


tfip hanks were experimenting 
with . “memory cards” which 
included microprocessors. By 
1990, all the barks had incorpo- 
rated these chips into “smart 
cards”, and introduced a four 
- digit security code to authorise 
payments. 

The result' has been a sub- 
stantial reduction in card 
fraud, which has fallen from 
0.27 per cent of all transactions 
in 1967 to 0.04 per cent lari 
year - which the French claim 
to be among the lowest propor- 
tions in the world. . . 

As Mr Jean-Claude Trichst, 
governor of the .Bank.. ..of 
France, said to. a speech 
recently to commemorate the 
first decade' of the inter-bank- 
ing system, th e carte bahaare 
allows the best of both worlds: 
co-operation to offer customers 
a universal service, and compe- 
tition for banks to ebutbrae- 
offering their own services to 
enrich the value of the card. 



FT 


financial times 

Co>uv)\nrt.-\ 


WORLD 

TELECOMMUNICATIONS 


London — 6 & 7 December 1994 

The Financial Times annual conference will review developments changing the shape 
of the telecommunications industry worldwide and provide a high level forum to 
exchange views on the way ahead. 

ISSUES TO BE ADDRESSED INCLUDE: 

• Whither International Telecommunications Alliances? 

• Creating an Informations Society in Europe 

• Information Superhighways - the developing US scene 

• Regulating competition in Europe 

• Selling telecommunications equipment in a liberalising market 
SPEAKERS INCLUDE: 

• Dr Martin Bangemann • Dr Michael Nelson 

Member Special Assistant for Information Technology 

European Commission TheOffice of Science & TfecbiK4ogyI\»iky,US 

• Sir lain Vallance . The Rt Hon Lord Young of Graflham 

Chairman Executive Chairman 

Cable & Wireless pic 

• Mr Robert B Morris IH • Dr Edward F Staiano 

Managing Director, International Equity Research PreskiertandGereral Manager.Geneial Systems Sec 

Goldman Sachs International Motorola Inc 

• Mr Donald Cruickshank • Dr Hans Baur 

Director General Member of the Board 

Office of Telecommunications (OFTEL) Siemens AG 


Motorola Inc 
Dr Hans Baur 
Member of the Board 
Siemens AG 


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ets 







NEWS: EUROPE 


Iberia crisis Russians baffled by petrol shortage 

may lead 

J -y ou do not expect Newcastle 


to break-up 


By Tom Bums In Madrid 

The management of Iberia 
Spain's financially crippled 
and strike-hit airline, has 
warned ahead of a new round 
of talks today that it will break 
up the company unless unions 
agree to drastic wage cuts over 
the next two years. 

Union action grounded 75 
per cent of Iberia’s flights on 
Friday hi the second 24-bow 
stoppage this month and fur- 
ther strikes are planned 
through to Christmas in pro- 
test at the company's plans to 
reduce salaries by an average 
15 per cent over the next two 
years. 

The pay cuts form part of a 
rescue package for the com- 
pany that includes a fresh 
infection of public funds. New 
funding has yet to be vetted by 
the European Commission, 
however, and government offi- 
cials say there is no nh»mt> of 
Brussels agreeing to the recapi- 
talisation of Iberia unless there 
is prior agreement on an effec- 
tive plan that will ensure the 
airline's future viability. 

Mr Javier Salas, chairman of 
Iberia and also of INI, the pub- 
lic sector holding which owns 
the airline, said in a letter to 
employees there was now a 
“serious risk” that the com- 
pany could be “'legally bank- 
rupt and forced into liquida- 
tion" early next year unless 
there was agreement over the 


management's proposals. Sepa- 
rately the management has 
warned union leaders that a 
failure to agree on the pay cuts 
would force the company into 
segregating its business and 
selling off Its handling and 
catering units. Iberia would 
also dispose of its former whol- 
ly-owned subsidiary Viva, a 
former charter company that 
currently serves regular 
domestic and European routes, 
and shareholdings in the Latin 
American carriers. Aernlineas 
Argentines, Chile’s Ladeco ami 
Venezuela's Viasa. 

Unions say they are prepared 
to negotiate reduced wages but 
that a prior condition to any 
cost savings must be a 
shake-up of the company's 
board and senior management 
Iberia is expected to lose 
Pta44bn (£ 21 3m) this year, 
which is roughly the equiva- 
lent of what the airline hopes 
to save under the proposed pay 
cuts and from a plan to shed 
2420 jobs from its 24,45&strong 
labour force. . j 

Iberia’s management says at , 
least 51 bn is required urgently I 
to re-capitalise the company. 

Even in the event of an 
agreed plan to save costs, such 
sums would prove highly con- 
troversial in Brussels where 
seven European airlines, led by 
British Airways, are currently 
contesting the commission’s 
recent approval of a state aid 
package for Air France. 


Italian unions 
buoyed by 
mass protests 


By Robert Graham in Rome 

- “After the floods, it’s a 'human 
tide," observed Mr Sergio Man- 
gano as he looked down, on a 
sea of demonstrators in the 
Circus Maximus, the ancient 
Roman chariot track, which bn 
Saturday was the scene of the 
largest of the three anti-gov- 
ernment demonstrations 
staged in Rome. 

Mr Mangano, a metal worker 
from Brescia, had like many 
given up his weekend to come 
to Rome. He had arrived com- 
plete with ear-plugs to permit 
him to blow a high-pitched 
whistle almost continuously. 
“Berlusconi cannot ignore 
this,” he said, well content 
with the day. 

According to the three union 
confederations who organised 
the demonstration against the 
1995 budget. 1.5m took part. 
The police put the figure at 
I.2m. Whatever the figure it 
was Italy’s biggest post-war 
demonstration. Because of last 
week's devastating floods in 
northern Italy, the unions had 
expected under lm people to 
take part 

In terms of numbers and 
planning (more than 8,500 
buses and 50 special trains 
were involved), it was an 
extraordinary achievement, 
und er lining the unions’ formi- 
dable organisational skills. 
Equally remarkable was the 
way the protest passed off vir- 
tually without incident. But 
what next? 

The right-wing government's 
initial reaction has been to pre- 
tend that it is business as 
usual. The hawks are now 


expected to argue that the 
unions do not have enough 
public support to escalate their 
protest Indeed a confrontation 
may even play into the govern- 
ment's bands. 

Following last month’s four- 
hour general strike, the gov- 
ernment made some conces- 
sions to its pension reform 
plans in the budget - the main 
specific object of protest. To 
concede more would under- 
mine the original shape and 
aims of the budget which is 
aimed at holding the public 
sector deficit to 8 per cent of 
GDP. 

As it Is, the budget looks 
unlikely to meet planned tar- 
gets. To keep the coalition 
together the government is 
already calling confidence 
votes. The first will be today 
on a scheme to introduce a par- 
don for buildings built without 
proper planning permission. 

The unions themselves face a 
dilemma. 

They must now decide 
whether they wish to be the 
central driving force of an anti- 
Berlusconi movement; or limit 
themselves to protecting their 
members who risk losing out 
by cuts in pensions and health 
benefits. 

Perhaps, the very success of 
Saturday’s demonstration will 
force the unions to become 
both more political and more 
unified. Seeing the government 
coalition seriously weakened 
by its own errors and by inter- 
nal divisions, the temptation to 
frighten Mr Berlusconi by stag- 
ing more street protests and a 
general strike might be irre- 
sistible. 


Does the German 
economy affect your 
business? 


‘1995 Economic and PoliticalForecast for 
Germany ” 


The general election results - their impact 
in 1995? 

The economy in 1995 - growth, but how much? 
Upswing in the German stock markets in 1995? 

What does all this' mean for British business 
andpolitics? 

. How will it impact your business? 

A conference on December 8th in London 
organised by the Frankfurter Aflgemeine 
Zeitung GmbH Information Services, 
a division of Germany’s most influential 
business and daily newspaper. 


To request, more information please contact 
Mr Donald Hiudoyan at Consensus Economics Inc, 
London -Tel: (071) 491 3211 or fax: (071) 409 2421, 
or call the EA-Z. in Frankfort ++49-69-7591-2202. 


By Ctvystia Freeland 
in Moscow 

“You do not expect Newcastle 
to run out of coaL In Demerara 
there are no lines for sugar" 
said a Moscow daily as irate 
Muscovites, waiting at petrol 
stations in sub-zero tempera- 
tures in tong queues, struggled 
to understand why the capital 
city of one of the world's maip 
oil producers should be suffer- 
ing from an acute petrol 
shortage. 

At tiie height of the fuel 
shortage last weekend, when 
only a handf ul of commercial 
stations in this city of 9m peo- 
ple were selling petrol and die- 
sel fuel, prices soared to as 
much as tan times their usual 
level. The state-run stations 
which dominate Moscow's 
retail petrol trade bad no fuel 
at alL 

This weekend, Moscow's 
mayor, Mr Yuri Luzhkov, 
responded to the crisis by with- 
drawing licences from more 
than 20 petrol retail companies 
accused or “profiteering” from 
the shortage by increasing 
prices. 

But the new-style commer- 
cial “profiteers" were respond- 
ing to a crisis which was, in 
large measure, caused by old- 
style state planning. To protect 
Muscovites - who retain a 
sense of special entitlement 
from the Soviet days when the 
capital city was always sup- 
plied with consumer goods 






Privately owned petrol tankers dispensing fuel in the streets of Moscow during the previous petrol shortage two mouths ago 


unavailable in the provinces - 
from recent increases in the 
price of petrol and diesel, city 
authorities decreed that fuel 
should be sold at artificially 
low rates. 

As in the era of central plan- 
ning, when all Soviet citizens 
could buy bread for pennies a 
loaf but paid for the privilege 
with hours spent in queues. 
Moscow's artificially low fuel 


prices inspired drivers from 
the provinces to flood into the 
city, provoking a shortage. The 
problem was exacerbated 
when, at the height of what 
Muscovites call “the petrol cri- 
sis", the Moscow fuel refinery 
reportedly suffered a break- 
down and suspended ship- 
ments to the city. 

A conspiracy theory was 
readily supplied for the refiner- 


y's timely equipment failure. It 
was suggested that the plant's 
management preferred not to 
sell fuel at unprofitably low 
rates. 

They are now pointing to the 
timely repair of the refinery 
earlier this week, shortly after 
Mr Luzhkov brought state 
prices in Moscow for petrol and 
diesel fuel back into line with 
the rest of the country. But 


even at the new, higher prices 
of between Rhs4(l0 and Rhs500 
(between 12 and 16 US cents) a 
litre for petrol, the drivers of 
the gleaming new Mercedes - 
which clog Moscow streets 
with western-style traffic jams 
- pay artificially low prices for 
their fueL 

Russian oil producers are 
understandably unhappy about 
supplying their compatriots at 


these rates and, beginning on 
January l - when the system 
of quotas and licences for oil 
exports are to be abolished - 
they will be freer to look for 
more profitable markets 
abroad. 

Their eagerness to do so is 
likely to be increased by the 
non-payments crisis which is 
one of the reasons cited by 
Russian officials to justify 
their reluctance to fully 
liberalise domestic fuel 
prices. 

However, even at the current 
low rates, many state consum- 
ers of fuel - in Moscow most 
notably the state-run transport 
system and the municipal 
infrastructure - have been 
simply not paying their fuel 
bills. 

Mr Luzhkov's decision to 
crack down on “profiteering" 
petrol stations may appease 
Muscovites angry at queuing 
for fuel in a city where rapidly 
growing oil fortunes are osten- 
tatiously displayed at newly 
established, wildly expensive 
night clubs and casinos. 

But unless Russia’s avow- 
edly reformist new government 
soon addresses the distortion 
of an economy in which many 
of the constraints on profitable 
producers have been lifted, but 
consumers and social service 
providers still expect the artifi- 
cial shelter of a planned econ- 
omy, Muscovites should not 
expect this petrol crisis to be 
their last 


We have 30 eeconde to demonstrate 
the benefits of E D & F Man’s 
Mint Plus Bond. 


“fifty?" 


It’s targeted at institutional investors and they’re always 
pressed for time. 


"Can we do it?" 

Yes, if we stick to essentials like ‘This is a uniquely struc- 
tured bond offering a combination of medium-term cap- 
ital appreciation and annual income”. And the important 
bit about “the income stream is not fixed but variable, 
with an intended minimum of 3%”. 

“ That ”$ fifteen seconds . . . ” 

And how all investors have the potential for attractive 
medium-term capital growth through a truly diversified 
asset mix supported by a Stand-by Letter of Credit 
“assured principal face value on maturity in 2002”. 

“ Tlventyfive ... * 

Then we finish by mentioning that Mint Plus Bonds will 
be cleared through Euroclear and Cedel and a listing is 
intended on the Dublin Stock Exchange. 

"Thirty one, thirty two- it's too long. They’ll need to read faster . " 

And we should also tell them about all the other in- 
vestment products ED&F Man has including those 
specifically aimed at the institutional investor. 

"No time ... but maybe they’ll take another SO seconds 
and fill in the coupon below?" 


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> -5 '•■‘.'•V5SS rase* 

, ; ; 


FINANCIAL TIMES MONDAY NOVEMBE?t JA ^S«i 


NEWS: EUROPE 


Euro-fraud squad 
turns on the heat 


By Peter Marsh 

As cases of Eurofraud go, it is 
a classic. A Piedmontese farm- 
ing famil y allegedly helped 
itself to Ecu62m (£48- 8m) of 
illici t European Union agricul- 
ture subsidies by importing 
beef from Poland and then 
diverting the meat mixed up 
with bags of bones and skins to 
Malta, the Middle East and 
northern Africa while reserv- 
ing the best cuts for local sale. 

The family of three now 
faces fraud charges in Italy, 
while police have also arrested 
16 Customs officials in Naples 
thought to have played a part 
in the scam. 

Efforts to gain convictions 
are being assisted by Uclaf, a 
squad of about 60 investigators 
and officials who operate 
under the auspices of the Euro- 
pean Commission. 

Uclaf, set up in 1988 and for 
years regarded as somewhat 
sleepy, has recently acquired a 
more dynamic image partly 
because of the extra attention 
EU officials and politicians are 
paying towards financial irreg- 
ularities. 

It is thought that between 2 
and 10 per cent of the ElTs 
annual Ecu70bn budget is 
wasted either through fraud or 
lax financial checking proce- 
dures. 

In many cases, the complex 
nature of EU spending rules 
allows scope for fraud either 
by professional criminals or 
opportunist farmers or con- 
struction companies eligible 
for grants or subsidies. 

A long list of sloppy supervi- 
sion of cash - and in some 
cases downright fraud in areas 
such as money spent on agri- 
culture, transport and training 
- is likely to be highlighted 
tomorrow in the annual report 
of the Luxembourg-based 
Court of Auditors, the £U r s 

main financ ial watchdog. 

Most of the reported frauds 
or “irregularities" crop up in 
the EU's agriculture budget, 
which accounts for roughly 
half total spending. Many of 
the frauds relate to false 
claims by traders or food pro- 
cessing companies for export 
subsidies for transferring farm 
products (such as the beef in 
the case of the Piedmontese 
family) out of the union to 


FRAUD AND OTHER FINANCIAL. lEWEGULARITIES IN 
EUROPEAN UNIO N AGRICULTURE SPENDING 

Yea r Number at cases Sums involved (Ecu m) 


reduce European food stocks. 
A second important category 
concerns cash channelled illic- 
itly to fanners on the basis of 
false production returns cover- 
ing crops such as olive oil, cot- 
ton or tobacco. 

According to the latest Uclaf 
figures. 856 suspected frauds 
totalling Ecu212m were 
reported across the EU in agri- 
culture in the first half of 1994, 
compared with 1,298 cases 
involving Ecu248m in the 
whole of last year. . While the 
rate of increase in fraud 
appears to be alarming, much 
of it may be put down to better 
detection, according to Uclaf 
officials and thus may be seen 
as a positive rather than nega- 
tive signal 

This view underlines the 
point that no one really knows 
the extent of fraud. In an inter- 
view last week Mr Per Brix 
Knud sen, UclaTs extrovert 
Danish director, said it was 
“unfair" for onlookers auto- 
matically to assume that IQ per 
cent of all EU spending was 
wasted through fraud. 

Mr Knudsen took over his 
Job in January as part of the 
effort to raise the unit's profile. 

The 10 per cent figure is 
based on a largely unscientific 
estimate made several years 
ago by Professor Klaus Tiede- 
mann, a German criminologist. 
It has been accepted uncriti- 
cally by many EU critics. 

Mr Knudsen. an ex-army offi- 
cer turned customs official 
who is also an economics grad- 
uate, is admanant that tbe io 
per cent figure is too high. But 
be admits that the cash lost is 
undoubtedly more than the 
EU's own reported figures - 
which are based almost 
entirely on auditing of agricul- 
ture spending. 

One of the problems in 
obtaining an overall view 
about the level of EU fraud is 
that reported frauds in the 
EU's structural aid programme 


SauKtK fijnpaan Commi ss ion 

are virtually non-existent. The 
structural aid programme 
accounts for about a quarter of 
the EU budget but the detailed 
mechanisms to record fraud 
have never been put in place. 

Another problem is the 
stance of the Court of Audi- 
tors. This sees its role as 
inquiring into the details of 
specific areas of EU spending 
rather than looking at finan- 
cial irregularities in a more 
generalised way. 

At Uclaf Mr Knudsen has 
identified as a priority the job 
of co-ordinating actions by sev- 
eral member states in fighting 
fraud - especially involving 
cross-border transfers or manu- 
factured goods or agriculture 
products. 

These cases may cover not 
just EU spending but examples 
of where European countries 
ore missing out on revenues by 
failing to collect taxes on goods 
such as imported contraband 
cigarettes. 

Many of the 90 cases Uclaf is 
investigating involve efforts to 
bring together police, prosecu- 
tors or customs investigators 
in a range of countries. How- 
ever Mr Knudsen criticised the 
“incredible slowness” of legal 
procedures across Europe 
which he said can sometimes 
lead to a delay of six months in 
getting a justice ministry in 
one country to release evi- 
dence to a second country with 
a view to aiding in a prosecu- 
tion. 

With only a handful of cases 
involving EU fraud reaching 
trial each year, Mr Knudsen < 
said the EU needed to show 
greater urgency over fraud. 

Mr Knudsen is keen to refute ! 
charges that Uclaf will concen- ; 
trate on high-profile , 
investigations. 

Just as important, he says, is 
work on preventing fraud by 
looking at possible loopholes in 
the EU's spending and a dmin - 
istrative rules. 


UN condemns fighting in BiHi 


' By Laura Silber in Belgrade, 

I Bruce Clark in London 
and agencies 

! The UN Security Council, 
meeting in emergency session 
after a joint request by Bosnia 
and Croatia, yesterday con- 
demned the escalation of fight- 
ing in Bihac and demanded 
that Serbs in Croatia stay out 
of the conflict in north-west 
Bosnia. 

In a statement read at a for- 
mal session, tbe council said it 
“views with alarm the escala- 
tion in recent fighting in the 
Bihac area, and the flow of ref- 
ugees and displaced persons 
resulting from it”. To this end 
the council demanded that “ail 
parties and others concerned, 
and in particular the Krajina 
Serb force fully respect that 
border". 

In northern Bosnia, the 
Serbs appear to be set on pun- 
ishing the Moslem-led govern- 
ment army for its recent offen- 
sives by reducing Bihac to a 
small, deprived outpost, as has 
happened with tbe Moslem 
enclaves to the east. 

Bosnian government forces 
went on the offensive yester- 
day near Bijeljina. in the 
north-east and around Mostar 
in the south-west. Several pro- 
jectiles fell on the Holiday Inn 
where many foreigners stay in 
Sarajevo. 

The fighting will be one of 
the main preoccupations of 
ministers from the nine mem- 
bers of the Western European 




\t\sv 


A Bosnian Serb soldier passing an armoured car wrecked in heavy fighting near Bihac 


Union tWEUi who gather at 
Noordwijk in the Netherlands 
today to discuss how Europe 
could take more responsibility 
for defence without US help. 
The US. increasingly out of 
step with its European allies 
over Bosnia, has taken the lead 


in supporting an appeal from 
tbe Bosnian and Croatian gov- 
ernments for a tougher UN pol- 
icy to protect Bihac. Its deci- 
sion to withdraw from the 
enforcement of the arms 
embargo against the Bosnian 
government entered force yes- 


terday amid confusion about 
what it would mean. 

Nato officials said it had sot 
been worked out how the US 
could continue to co-operate 
with an arms embargo against 
most ex- Yugoslav republics 
while letting weapons proceed 


to Bosnia. -Sisoe. jams 
meats to Bosnia are houadto 
pass through .Croatia^- ._$*§ 
inspectors wtmMhavttomaie 
hard Judgments abbot tat*, 
mate destination of any car-.' 
goes they dfcobTOr«L : 

France, the main adrocate^tf 
greater . European 
dance in defence, is canected to ^ 
red oubtej tts eftats 
the WEU to commit Statons 
necessary to ctevelqp ite. own 
satellite inteffigracB. : A recant 
study said it would cdstr ifae 
WEU about £Ubn to wtaBBsh 
a network oT spy Satellites. >- 

Britain has beeadoubtftilpf 
the wed tor tote. Under its spe- 
cial relationship with Washing- 
ton, it is only Earopeai 
ally to receive raw satellite 
intelligence from theUS. \ ' 

However the new U&- state- 
ment that any data on auras 
shipments to Bosnia would be 
classified as “US only” has 
brought fanine to all European 
countries, InclucUng thfe UK, 
die drawbacks of dependence. : 

Also attending the ^EU 
meeting will be the. nine -ex- i 
communist nations which arar.. 
“asso ciate partners’' o ff the 
WEU. S up port e rs see tine WfiU 
as a vehicle for drawing a- . 
communist states; into, the" 
western security system' with- 
out upsetting Russia. However, 
naHny w; Hfrg the -UK and Pojjn. 
gal have warned against this 
approach, saying that it'cmdd 
run into understandable objec- 
tions from both Moscow' and 
Washington. 


Coalition closes ranks for Kohl poll 


By Christopher Parkes In 
Frankfurt and Michael 
Undemaran in Bonn 

Germany's coalition party- 
leaders and managers strug- 
gled at the weekend to prevent 
breaches in the ranks or other 
mishaps which might hurt Mr 
Helmut Kohl's chances of 
being re-elected chancellor in 
tomorrow's Bundestag vote. 

With a mere 10-seat parlia- 
mentary majority they can 
afford no more than four 
defections or absences if Mr 
Kohl is to be assured of suc- 
cess in the first voting round 
by gaining the required abso- 
lute majority of 337. 

Party managers are con- 
cerned that anything other 


than a first-round win could 
raise further questions over 
tbe coalition's ability to gov- 
ern and thus weaken Mr 
Kohl's authority. 

Squabbling Free Democrats 
(FDP1. the junior coalition 
partners, were told by their 
leader. Mr Elans Kinkel. that 
they would be taught how to 
behave if they did not stop 
arguing over cabinet seats. 

Mr Gunter Rexrodt. current 
FDP economics minister, 
emerged at the weekend as the 
next victim of internal FDP 
dissent which has already led 
to rifts with prominent mem- 
bers including the former eco- 
nomics minister, Mr Jflrgen 
Mdllemann. 

Mr Rexrodt said he believed 


his cabinet future was in 
doubt although he had not 
been told anything official 

“The mood is very agitated 
in the party and there are not 
many signs of human 
warmth." he told a newspaper. 
The FDP is expected to have 
only three seats in the new 
government instead of four, 
although the distribution of 
the portfolios will not be 
announced until after the elec- 
tion of the chancellor. 

MT Hefner Geissler, a senior 
Christian Democrat (CDU) 
party manager, warned that a 
defeat for Mr Kohl amid lead 
to fresh federal elections, 
implying that the FDP, which 
lost 32 of its parliamentary 
5 eats in last month's poll, 


might suffer an even worse 
fate in a new vote. 

Meanwhile, Mr Wolfgang 
Schduble, the CDU parliamen- 
tary leader, summoned all 304 
CDU Bundestag members to 
Bonn today for a “1011 can”. 
Mr Schflnble said he was deter- 
mined to avoid any risk of 
missed aircraft or traffic jams 
Interfering with the chancel-' 
tar's election. 

In talks on the government’s 
programme, concluded in 
record time on Friday, the 
coalition parties agreed to 
relax nationality laws so that 
foreign children bom in Ger- 
many will be able to hold Ger- 
man nationality. 

Measures which would make, 
it easier to integrate the &8m 


foreigners firing in Germany 
had been the most thorny 
issue daring the coalition 
negotiations. - - - - - 

The changes, made known at 
the weekend, were at least a. 
partial victory for thft FDP, 
which had to overcome reso- 
lute opposition from tbe Chris- 
tian Social Union <CSU), the 
more conservative Bavarian 
sister party of Chancellor 
Kohl’s CDU. 

One of the child’s parents 
most have been born in Gff- 
many and both parents must 
have been resident for at least 
10 years before the children . 
can qualify for German nation- 
ality, according to weekend 
press reports. ' T * 

See editorial comment - 



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FINANCIAL times 


MONDAY NOVEMBER 14 1994 


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NEWS: THE AMERICAS 


[NTCRNATlONAL^NEWSDlGESr 

Gaza bombing: 
over 1 50 held 

police arrested more than 150 Islamic Jihad 
Gaza Strip over the weekend following Friday's 
outside a settlement in the Gaza Strip which 
S j ? * r ^ serve officers. Israel’s prime minister, Mr 

Rabin, continued, however, to press the Palestinian 
Authority to act more rigorously to prevent such attacks on 
Israeli soldiers and civilians by fimifami»ntaiitf groups opposed 
to the peace agreement. 

Those arrested included a brother of Islamic Jihad 
leader. Sheikh Abdallah al-ShamL But most of the organisa- 
■jons senior figures are reported to have gone i n*n hiding, 
mter an earlier suicide bombing in which 22 passengers were 
kuled on a Tel- Aviv bus last month, the Palestinian police 
attested hundreds of activists, but soon released th pm all 
without charge. The Israeli Cabinet ha« eased restraints on the 
um of “physical pressure” by its interrogators on suspected 
terrorists. Brie Silver, Jerusalem 

Crackdown on Chinese CDs 

Authorities in China's Guangzhou province reported at the 
weekend that they had cracked down on the city's 19 ftnmpart 
disc producers in an effort to s tamp oat piracy. Two producers 
had been suspended for “copyright violations’' and 11 others 
had been required to “get rid” of their counterfeit discs. Six 
producers had passed inspection. According to HHiwa Daily 
some 7,700 stores selling CD’s in Guangdong were rn^ pgrtod 
mid 1.26m pirated discs seized. The reported crackdown coin- 
cides with increased inte rnational pressure on C hina to stamp 
out widespread intellectual property right s violations. US offi- 
cials last week concluded the latest in a series of negotiations 
with China aimed at brin g in g it into line on the copyright 
issue. The US has made it dear that China's accession to the 
Gatt depends on real progress in stopping violations. Tony 
Walker, Beijing 

Thai steel monopoly to end 

Thailand is set to breach a steel monopoly by allowing new 
entrants into the market. A previous a dminis tration had 
promised in 1989 a 19-year protection to Sahaviriya Steel 
Industry. But with demand c ontinuing to outstrip supply, the 
government has persuaded Sahaviriya to cooperate in allow- 
ing more steel factories to be built The move will ahnost 
certainly see two powerful local groups move into steel- 
maktng - Siam Cement in a joint v ent ure with Mitsui and 
Nippon Steel of Japan, expects to build a cold-rolled steel 
plant, and NTS Steel Group has applied to construct a hot- 
rolled steel centre. Sahaviriya started hot-rolled steel produc- 
tion early this year at a $650m plant and is scheduled to begin 
cold-rolled steel production early next year. WUHam Barnes. 
Bangkok 

Iran takes Azeri oil stake 

Azeri and Iranian officials said over the weekend that Azerbai- 
jan has agreed to give Iran a 5 per cent stake in an interna- 
tional consortium for developing Azeri oilfields in the Cas pian 
Sea. The agreement, reached in Baku, the Azeri capital will 
give Iran a quarter of Azerbaijan’s 20 per cent stake in the 
|7bn deal in mrchanga - fiir financial and technical assistance. 
Speaking on Radio Teheran, monitored by the BBC, Mr Gho- 
lamtyxa A gTiazadah, Iran’s oil minister , said he expected Iran 
to invest between $30Qm and $360m in the project. 

Azeri officials told the Russian news agency Interfax that 
Iran bad been brought into the deal because of Azerbaijan's 
inability to contribute its share of the financing The project 
began in September when Azerbaijan signed an agreement 
with a consortium of eight western oil companies, led by 
British Petroleum, to develop three oil and gas fields in the 
<>gpi«n Sea. The consortium is expected to invest $6hn-$8bn 
to produce 4bn barrels of light oiL Chrystia Preeland, Moscow 

Caracas takes control of bank 

The Venezuelan government has taken control of Banco 
Andino, a small commercial hank formerly owned by private 
investors, it was announced at the weekend. This tarings to 13 
the total number of banks the government has intervened to 
since the be ginning of this year. Venezuela's banking crisis 
erupted last January when Banco Latino, one of the country’s 
largest banks, foiled. The government has also taken over 
hundreds of subsidiaries of these financial institutions. Banco 
An dino will apparently remain open under the control of the 
state-owned Banco Industrial de Venezuela (BIV), which 
bought 73 per cent of the troubled institution's shares for a 
nominal sum. Joseph Mann, Caracas 


Cardoso candidates confident of power 

Strong election showing will strengthen hand of Brazil’s next president, writes Angus Foster 

W 


hen Brazil holds state gov- 
ernor elections tomorrow 
Mr Fernando Henrique Car- 
doso, who takes office as president on 
January 1, is likely to see his support- 
ers cruise to victory in the most 
important states. His own centre-left 
Social Democracy party (PSDB) is 
also expected to perform strongly and 
seal its emergence as a new force in 
Brazilian politics. 

Elections are being held in 18 of the 
country’s 27 states where there was 
no clear winner in last month's first 
round. Mr Cardoso, who as finance 
minister launched a currency which 
tamed inflation, won the presidential 
race easily. Victories for his support- 
ers in the gubernatorial elections will 
considerably add to his political clout 
next year. 

His advisers are increasingly jubi- 
lant that PSDB candidates will win in 
the three key states of Sao Paulo, Rio 
de Janeiro and Minas Gerais. These 
states alone account for 43 per cent of 
the country's voters, and more than 
60 per cent of GDP. They are also the 


most influential politically and, 
because state governors hold influ- 
ence over congressmen, Mr Cardoso 
will be guaranteed a strong voice in 
Congress. 

Sdo Paulo, the country's most 
important state, looks set to be won 
by Mr Cardoso's long-term ally and 
PSDB leader Mr MJrio Covas. He has 
a big advantage over his challenger, a 
populist local politician who, among 
other colourful claims, once said he 
would solve the capital's traffic prob- 
lems with the help of God. 

The state, home to more than half 
the country's biggest companies, is 
also home to a big potential time 
bomb, the state bank Banespa. The 
bank has been abused by politicians 
for so long that it has a bad loan ratio 
five times higher than private sector 
banks. Mr Cardoso needs to sort out 
the state bank sector to avert a bank- 
ing crisis and expensive federal sup- 
port. Mr Covas may not agree to ail 
Mr Cardoso's recommendations, but is 
thought to be looking at ways to nego- 
tiate changes. 


The expected victory in Rio de 
Janeiro for the PSDB’s Mr Marcello 
Alencar will also give Mr Cardoso a 
strong mandate to attack the city's 
problems, especially drugs and eco- 
nomic decline. The army is preparing 
an offensive against Rio's drug traf- 
fickers and was also to appear today 
on the streets of Rio to ensure an 
orderly vote. 

In other Important states. PSDB 
candidates are clear favourites in 
Minas Gerais and the big northern 
state of P&ra. The Liberal Front 
(PFL), part of Mr Cardoso's election 
alliance, is almost certain to win the 
main north-east state of Bahia and 

consolidate the powerbase of Mr 
Antbnio Carlos Magalhaes, the state's 
most powerful politician. 

The only possible setback for Mr 
Cardoso is in the southern state of Rio 
Grande do SuL Mr Cardoso’s choice, 
Mr Antonio Britto. faces a late chal- 
lenge from a Workers’ party (PT) can- 
didate. Opinion polls suggest the two 
are neck and nedt. 

The strong showing of candidates 


linked to Mr Cardoso partly reflects 
optimism about his prospects as presi- 
dent. Candidates have been rushing 
to seek his blessing and stress that 
states which elect his allies have a 
better chance to benefit from the eco- 
nomic growth which many expect a 
Cardoso government to bring. The 
new currency, the Real, won Mr Car- 
doso his election and is now winning 
votes for his allies by keeping prices 
under controL 

Mr Cardoso's popularity should also 
ensure the emergence of the PSDB as 
one of the most powerful political par- 
ties. As well as holding the presi- 
dency, it lodes set to increase its num- 
ber of state governors from 1 to 5 - 
second only to the Democratic Move- 
ment (PMDB). The PSDB, which Mr 
Cardoso helped found in 1988. also 
elected enough congressmen in last 
month's elections to make it the third 
largest in Congress. 

This is important because it gives 
the PSDB a strong negotiating posi- 
tion to build a coalition to Congress. 
Before the elections, there were fears 


that Mr Cardoso would need to com- 
promise to guarantee the support of 
its larger alliance partner, the right 
wing PFL. Instead, Mr Cardoso should 
have considerable autonomy from 
PFL leaders like Mr Magalhkes, so 
long as his popularity remains 
high. 

Mr Cardoso's main presidential 
challenger. Mr Luiz lnacio Lula' da 
Silva of the left wing PT, did poorly in 
the elections. But his party may be 
close to a breakthrough. The PT. 
which has never won a race for gover- 
nor, has candidates with good 
c h ances of winning in the federal dis- 
trict of Brasilia and the small state of 
Espirito Santo. A third candidate is 
neck and neck in Rio Grande do Sul. 

The PT is is growing quickly, 
helped by its reputation for propriety 
and by disillusionment with old-style 
politicians who relied on corruption 
and patronage. Its congressional 
strength Increased by a half to 54 
members following last month's elec- 
tions and it is expected to form the 
nucleus of opposition to Mr Cardoso. 


Stargate sets sci-fi fi l m bandwagon rolling 


A cult movie has sown the 
seeds for Hollywood’s latest 
passion, says Alice Rawsthorn 


W 


hen the cast and 
crew of Stargate cel- 
ebrated its US premi- 
ere two weeks ago, the most 
they hoped was that their 
clever little sti-fi film would 
become a steady cult success. 

Stargate, starring James 
Spader and Kurt Russell as 
intrepid adventurers who fall 
foul of a sadistic villain played 
by Jaye Davidson, has become 
the hit of the US autumn sea- 
son. It grossed Ji6.7m in its 
opening weekend, a record for 
a Halloween movie. A fortnight 
later it still tops the Variety 
league alter taking 834.5m. 

Its success, following so 
shortly after that of Steven 
Spielberg’s epic Jurassic Park, 
has whetted Hollywood's appe- 
tite for science fiction. The sev- 
enth Star Trek movie opens in 
the US on Friday and dozens of 
other sci-fi movies are now in 
production and scheduled to 
appear next year. 

The film industry is notori- 
ously fickle, but science fiction 
has fallen in and out of feshion 
in Hollywood to a greater 
degree than other genres. 

Movies about life in outer 
space first surfaced in the 
1930s with the Flash Gordon 
and Buck Rogers series. Sci-fi 
reappeared in the trash fil m s 
to the 1950s only to be eclipsed 
by the thrill of the real space 
race to the 1960s. The genre 
was then elevated to cult sta- 
tus by Stanley Kubrick’s 1968 
classic. 2001: Space Odyssey, 
and Andrei Tarkovsky’s 1972 
masterpiece, Solaris. 

It was not until the late 1970s 
that science fiction became big 
business. George Lucas led the 
way in 1977 with Star Wars, 


which became one of the big- 
gest grossing movies ever, tak- 
ing $323m in the US alone. 

By the mid-1980s, however, 
the genre no longer seemed so 
fresh. Hie futuristic films of 
that era, such as the Termina- 
tor series, were classified as 
“action" movies. 

AH that changed with Juras- 
sic Park, which has grossed 
$356m to the US since it 
opened last year. It proved to 
the sceptical ranks of Holly- 
wood accountants that there 
was an audience for science fic- 
tion, just as the success of 
Dances With Wolves in 1990 
had heralded the return of the 
western. 

The digital dinosaurs created 
for Jurassic Park on the com- 
puters of Industrial Light and 
Magic, the $6Qm special effects 
laboratory founded by George 
Lucas, also acted as a show- 
case for the new generation of 
digital special effects. 

These enable film makers to 



Kurt Russell to Stargate, top of the Variety league table with takings of S34Jftn so far 


create extraordinary visual 
images at relatively low cost 
by cutting down on the num- 
ber of extras, stunt artists and 
sets needed to shoot a film. 

James Cameron, director of 
Terminator and another 
techno buff, used the comput- 
ers at his Digital Domain spe- 
cial effects lab to create stun- 


ning sequences in True Lie. 
such as a scene in which 
Arnold Schwarzenegger “flies” 
his Harrier jet through Miami’s 
skyscrapers. Thanks to the 
new technology, George Lucas 
hopes to halve the cost of 
shooting the next version of 
Star Wars to $50m_ 

The fantastical quality of 


digital images makes them 
Ideal for science fiction and 
has prompted a number of 
directors to try out the genre. 
The new Star Trek will be fol- 
lowed by Judge Dredd starring 
Sylvester Stallone, Strange 
Days with Ralph Plenties, and 
a film version of the cult car- 
toon, Tank GirL 


The sci-fi bandwagon shows 
no sign of stopping. Marlon 
Brando is tipped to star in an 
adaptation of H G Wells's The 
Island of Doctor Moreau. The 
major studios are competing to 
sign Luc Besson, the fashion- 
able French director, for Zalt- 
man Bleros. his next $75m 
sci-fi epic. Even Stanley 
Kubrick is making a new 
movie. AL a film about artifi- 
cial intelligence. 

If Jurassic Park was the 
Dances With Wolves of the 
sci-fi genre, Stargate (which 
will arrive in Europe with a 
UK opening in January) looks 
like The UnforgLven. : 

Another contender is Water- 
world. an aquatic sci-fi adven- 
ture starring Kevin Costner. 
But the production has been 
plagued with problems. The 
budget has rocketed to $135m, 
malting it the most expensive 
film ever. 

Oscar Moore, editor-in-chief 
of Screen, the film industry 
magazine, said: “Waterworld 
does have the makings of a 
disaster. There have been hor- 
ror stories about it from the 
start. But you can never be 
sure about anything in this 
industry until the movie actu- 
ally opens.” 


Don't miss the 
biggest Energy 
Management 
Exhibition in 
Europe - 
NEMEX '94 

to be held on 

29th and 30th November 1994 
Birmingham Metropole Hotel, NEC. 

Over 150 leading energy management 
companies and the major fuel and 
power suppliers will be exhibiting 
at NEMEX '94 


For free exhibition invitation tickets 
or details of the supporting 
conference programme, please ■ 
contact the organisers: 

Energy Systems Trade Association 
PO Box 16. Stroud 
Gloucestershire GL6 9YB 
Telephone (0453) 886776 
Facsimile (0453) 885226 - 



Dr Von Scholz, 

Head of Unit, 
Directorate General 
XVII (Energy), 
European Commission 



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INVESTING IN SOUTH AFRICA 


Sustained upliftment of underdeveloped 
communities is a high priority 

Dr Chris Stals, Governor of the SA Reserve Bank, speaks to John Spira, 

Business Editor of a leading Johannesburg newspaper. 


Spira: Speculation over the imminent abolition of South 
Africa's two-tier currency system has been rife. You've 
remained steadfast in your belief that exchange control 
and tbe financial rand cannot be scrapped Ln current cir- 
cumstances. Why? 

Stale: If South Africa w» prepared (u live with the painful 
adjustments associated with its removal, exchange controls 
could be abolished immediately. 

But if exchange control was to be scrappeJ. the Smith African 
rand would have to he supported for several weeks. Who 
would do so - .’ The Reserve Bank couldn't, because it only has 
foreign exchange reserve* sufficient to cover five weeks of 
imports. 

Spira: Couldn't you scrap the financial rand while main- 
taming exchange control in all other respects in order to 
defend the foreign exchange reserves-? 

Stals: Perhaps so. since the two-tier currency system was 
introduced us protect the country from boycotts and sanctions, 
which have since been removed. 

Foreign altitudes are changing. Most foreign investors are 
mote worried now about South Africa's economic policies 
than any other issue. If we get these right, we won't need 
exchange controls on non-residents. But the timing should he 
right. The worst thing would be to abolish exchange controls 
and then have to bring them back three months later. 

The exchange rate market, which establishes. the difference 
between the commercial and financial rands and the yield on 
investment in South Africa, is die indicator of the level of for- 
eign confidence in the country 

The discount of the financial rand to the commercial rand is 
still iti percent, while the yield on government stock to resi- 
dents is lb percent. 

Non-residents are accordingly conveying ihe message that 
they want a return which is higher fby some 211 percent > than 
the’ 16 percent currently available lo residents. 

Spira: What militates against tbe scrapping of exchange 
control on residents? 

Stals: If we abolish exchange control on residents immediate- 
ly. the Reserve Bank may need anything up to R20 billion in 
foreign exchange to fund money that may leave the country. 
Even if hair that amount were to (Vw overseas . prices of 
assets would go down and interest rates wunM soar. The 
Reserve Bank would have to sell foreign exchange in order to 
meet the demand from residents Lo invest abroad. This would 
drastically reduce our foreign exchange reserves and drain 
domestic liquidity. 

To limit a possible fall in (he reserves and in the exchange 
me,' we would have to raise domestic interest rales by selling 
government stock into the market and deliberately raise the 
cash reserve requiremcnis of the banks. 

The resultant higher interest rates would check the incentive 
to take money oof of the country. while encouraging foreign- 
ers to bring imooey in. 

ln the process, however, the shock that may be needed to 
adjust LO the new situation could Ik seven:. When, for exam- 
ple. Argentina abolished exchange controls, real wages and 
salaries dropped by something like percent. 

$p in: To what moil b*s the Reserve Bank been smooth- 
ing out fluctuations in the rand’s exchange rate? How has 
this impacted on the reserves? 

stai«- The Reserve Bank reguljrlv intervenes m the foreign 
exchange markets, as well as in the forward market. Wc 
believe it Ls croccil ihdi wc srmwih rail tluctuaiions in the 
exchange rare and wo need foreign exchange reserves for this 
purpose In South Africa, a small market by comparison with 
sonic others, the average daily turnover in the foreign 
exchange market is berween SS nullum -uui So million 

Spira: South Africa's economic recovery appears to have 
Stalled for tbe lime bring. What are the background 


factors? 

Stals: The long recession going back to March 1989 came to 
an end around the middle or 1993. The economy recovered in 
the second half of the year and wc witnessed a higher growth 
rate in GDP. 

The recovery was fostered by favourable weather conditions, 
which led to a sharp increase in agricultural output, and high- 
er growth in some industrial countries, which boosted South 
Africa's volume of exports. 

Other beneficial factors included the removal of trade and 
financial sanctions and the progress made in combatting infla- 
tion and restoring financial stability. 

Ln the first half of 1994 the upturn wavered somewhat as the 
growth in agricultural output levelled off temporarily and out- 
put was affected by exceptional circumstances linked to the 
process of political change. Labour unrest and work stoppages 
in the pre-election period and a reduction in work-days aris- 
ing from the large number of public holidays, brought about 
low growth and even declines in (he real value added. 

As things stand at present, an array of structural weaknesses 
continue to impose restraints on tbe longer term growth poten- 
tial of the economy, the more important of which are: 

* The shortage of skilled manpower. 

* The high costs of labour in comparison to skills and 
training. 

* High non-wage labour costs in the form of labour unrest, 
work stoppages, strikes and stayawnys. 

* The persistence of uncomfortably high inflationary 
expectations, despite the success achieved in creating more 
stable financial conditions. 

■ The large and increasing involvement of government in the 
economy. 

* The high tax burden on individuals. 

* The unsustainable size of the government deficit before 
borrowing. 

* Tbe low level of domestic saving, and high dissaving by 
government 

* Uncompetitive conditions leading lo inefficiencies. 

* An ami -export bias in the foreign trade policy structure. 

Spira: How wfll these weaknesses be overcome? 

Stab: Considerable emphasis was placed in the 1994-95 
Budget on the government’s Reconstruction and 
Development Programme. In view or the large number of 
unemployed persons and widespread poverty in South Africa, 
it is essential that the sustained upliftment of underdeveloped 
communities and areas remains high on the list of the govem- 
mcru's priorities. 

South Africa's acute unemployment problem can be alleviat- 
ed under conditions of accelerated, labour-absorbing, eco- 
nomic growth. Sustainable, high, employment-creating eco- 
nomic growth lhat will be lo the benefit of all South Africans 
will, however, hr possible only in a stable financial environ- 
ment. A more equitable distribution of wealth and income is 
difficult, if not almost impossible: to accomplish under condi- 
tions of high inflation. 

Fortunately, the inflation rale has recently been brought down 
to single-digit levels Iasi prevailing in Ihe early 1970s. 
However, relative to South Africa's main trading partners, the 
current inflation race is s till too high. 

Measured over four quarters, the growth rate in real unit 
labour costs actually turned negative from the first quarter of 
1993. because labour productivity growth exceeded the lower 
rates of increase in die real remuneration per worker. 

The observed increases in labour productivity were partly due 
to the retrenchement of workers in the formal sector of the 
economy as part of the rationalisation programmes of the 
btiMncxs community. 

The underlying growth in the productivity of South African 
workers, however, remains poor. Increases in unit labour costs 
do not bode well Tor inflation and could lend support to high- 
er inflation expectations- 

Spira: From what you have radicated, labour-related 
problems an a major factor militating against low-infla- 



Dr Chris Stals 

tion ecooomic growth. 

Stals: Indeed so. And recent aggressive wage demands, com- 
bined with the depreciation of the rand's exchange rate, may 
frustrate the authorities in their efforts to curt) the general rise 
in prices further. Industrial action, organised labour protest 
and unrest raise the perceived effective real costs of labour. 
These actions thereby not only lead to higher price Inflation 
but also reduce the demand for labour and neutralise at least 
partly the labour unions' efforts to raise tbe real wages of their 
members. 

Such actions accordingly encourage the development of a 
more capital-intensive production structure, affect business 
confident adversely, and hold back private-sector invest- 
ment. 

Disorderly labour conditions arc therefore detrimental to the 
objective of high employment -creating economic growth. 

By restraining output growth, such labour actions also limit 
the ability of the authorities lo achieve the socio-economic 
uplifunem of the population. 

Spira: How is tbe problem to be solved? 

Stals; President Mandela has called for closer co-operation 
and understanding between government, business and labour. 
I fully endorse this plea. 

The Reserve Bank believes that it would be easier to reach 
such closer co-operation in an environment of overall finan- 
cial stability. 

Spira: Another major impediment to ecooomic growth 
seems lo be in the sphere of government finances. Wbal is 
tbe situation here? 

Stals: The pubfic-Msctor borrowing requirement reached an 
exceptionally high level in fiscal 1993-94. To some extent this 
was due to special transfers which did not affect the domestic 
capital markets. 

Although no difficulties were experienced in financing the 
shortfall on the Exchequer Account, the larger sire of the bor- 
rowing requirement could have a crowding -out effect on pri- 
vate investment in an environment of more vigorous econom- 
ic growth. 

The high borrowing requirement of the government naturally 
also led to a significant increase in government debt and in the 
cost of servicing the debt. 

The government has indicated that the vast bulk of the costs 
of its Reconstruction and Development Programme will be 
financed from sources which do not require a heightened level 
of borrowing, nor an increase in taxation. 

Hopefully it will be successful in achieving this objective. 


SOUTH AFRICAN RESERVE BANK 
P.G. Box 427 
PRETORIA 0001 
Tel No. (Pretoria! 313-3751 
Fax No. (Pretoria! 313-3749 








_ v : ■ . v ■ s*”***} 9 **.^ 


FINANCIAL TIMES MON DAY NOVEMBER 



NEWS: ASIA 


FT correspondents report from the Apec meeting in Jakarta 


Bhutto arrests 




China ‘losing patience’ over WTO of opposition leader 


s* ■ 


By Peter Montagnon and 
Guy de Jonouttnes 

Mr Long Yong Tu, China's chief 
international trade negotiator, is run- 
ning out of patience. He says he is 
reaching the limit of his ability to nego- 
tiate on his country's application for 
membership of the new World Trade 
Organisation. 

If the year-end deadline for comple- 
tion of the talks was to be met. he says, 
leaders in Beijing and Washington 
would have to settle the political dif- 
ferences which he blamed for holding 
up progress. “Our negotiations are com- 
ing to a critical stage,” he says. "Now it 
is very important to get a political deci- 
sion because, just like two guys who 
are having a quarrel, we need someone 
higher up to say. okay, you should 
work out this thing.” 

Mr Long complains bitterly about the 
US position, which he says is the big- 
gest obstacle to Beijing's eight-year 
effort to rejoin the multilateral trading 


East Timor 
protests 
embarrass 
Indonesia 

By Manuela Saragosa 

The issue of East Timor is 
threatening to take the gloss 
off Indonesia’s hosting of the 
Asia Pacific Economic 
Co-operation summit, after 
rioting shook the East Timo- 
rese capital, Dili, this weekend 
and a group of East Timorese 
demonstrators climbed into 
the US embassy compound. 

About 30 East Timorese pro- 
testers bare been in the com- 
pound since Saturday morning 
and are demanding to speak to 
President Bill Clinton, who 
arrived in the Indonesian capi- 
tal last night. 

Meanwhile, two US journal- 
ists trying to enter East Timor 
without permission have been 
arrested by Indonesian police. 

US officials and other Apec 
delegates have said the issue 
of East Timor and human 
rights in Indonesia will not be 
raised daring the one-day 
Apec summit tomorrow. “This 
event is not the forum to dis- 
cuss it,” said Mr Ali Alatas, 


system. He says Washington has failed 
to spell out exactly what it wants from 
Beijing and repeatedly asks for more. 
“They tell us what they want, and we 
say ‘Okay, we accept'. Then they say 
that 's not enough, we have to do some- 
thing more. It is as if this WTO belongs 
to the US and they can veto any coun- 
try, even as large as China.” 

Mr Long said: “They are a little short- 
sighted. They are looking at the imme- 
diate commercial benefits. China's WTO 
membership should be a strategic 
long-term thing.” He says Ms Wu Yi, 
China's foreign trade minister, offered a 
package of “important concessions" to 
Mr Mickey Kantor. US trade representa- 
tive, at a meeting yesterday in Jakarta 
where the Asia Pacific Economic 
Co-operation summit opens today. 
Though Beijing hoped the offer would 
create a breakthrough in the negotia- 
tions. the US had failed to respond. 

According to Mr Long, the conces- 
sions included: 

• Publishing details of all China's 


import quotas, covering what Beijing 
calls sensitive products such as chemi- 
cal fertiliser. This meets a long-stand- 
ing US demand and. Mr Long says, was 
the crux of Beijing’s differences with 
the US- 

• The extension of foreign banking 
rights to Beijing and 10 provincial 
cities, in addition to 13 coastal cities 
already proposed. 

• Permission for foreign banks to 
transact business in local currency on 
an experimental basis after WTO entry. 

Mr Long concedes the offers do not 
fully meet US demands and hints at 
possible further concessions, though he 
says this would be difficult because it 
requires complex co-ordination by Chi- 
nese ministries. However. Beijing was 
not prepared to offer them after the end 
of this year - even if the US agreed to 
extend the negotiations, as it has 
recently says it may be ready to do. 

The two sides agreed yesterday to 
resume bilateral talks next month, after 
a US Congress vote on the Uruguay 



East Timorese riot police charge protesters in the streets of Dili yesterday 


Indonesia's foreign minister, 
said. 

However, Mr Clinton is 
expected to discuss it with 
President Suharto daring his 
official visit after the summit. 

In Dili at the weekend. East 
Timorese demonstrators took 
to the streets shooting politi- 
cal slogans. According to eye- 
witness reports relayed to 
Australian officials, one East 


Timorese was killed by an 
Indonesian but there were no 
deaths in the protest 

At the US embassy. East 
Timorese protestors are 
demanding that the Indone- 
sian government hold a refer- 
endum in East Timor, which 
was invaded by Indonesia in 
1975 and annexed a year later. 

The embassy says It has 
been in contact with Indone- 


sian authorities about the situ- 
ation. “We’ve been consulting 
with the Indonesian authori- 
ties and been assured that 
there will be no retribution 
taken,” said Mr Warren Chris- 
topher, the US secretary of 
state, in Jakarta on Saturday. 

Reports indicate that the sit- 
uation in Dili has calmed 
down bat the sit-in by protes- 
ters could go on for days. 


5YNOPTICS + WELLFLEET 










. — *■>**. Kmej 


Kr-vv I \jpt\A/or|<'c 3 


Round. But Mr Long says that if the 
talks drag on beyond January - . Chinese 
political support for WTO membership 
will wane, and Beijing fears Washing- 
ton will seek ever more concessions. 

“The reason we want to set a time 
limit is that we don’t want to be 
squeezed by them indefinitely. If they 
want to use Gatt [General Agreement 
on Tariffs and Trade I membership as a 
kind of leverage to hold us hostage, 
they are wrong. We are really at the 
end of our patience. We know China 
can do very well without Gatt." 

Mr Long says it would be “childish" 
of China to make success for its WTO 
application a condition of its support 
for proposal to set a firm date for trade 
liberalisation in the Asia-Pacific Eco- 
nomic Cooperation forum. 

“But in actual practice, I really do 
think there is a linkage," he says. If 
Apec eventually opened its markets to 
the rest of the world on a reciprocal 
basis. China could lose the full benefits 
while it remained outside Catt. 


Apec urged 
to broaden 
global 
trade role 


By Peter Montagnon and Guy 
de Jonqui&res 

The Asia Pacific Economic 
Co-operation forum should 
work towards the launch of a 
new multilateral round of 
trade liberalisation negotia- 
tions to follow the Uruguay- 
Round. Mr Supachai Panitch- 
pafcdi. Thailand's deputy- 
foreign minister, said in 
Jakarta. 

His remarks are one early 
sign that Apec could lead ulti- 
mately to the inauguration of a 
new round of multilateral 
trade talks and that some gov- 
ernments in the region are 
keen to resist pressure to turn 
Apec into a regional trading 
bloc. 

“Then we can have Apec 
playing a pivotal role in global 
trade liberalisation." Mr Supa- 
ehai said. His proposal made 
informally at the Apec ministe- 
rial meeting, drew support 
from Malaysia. 

But the proposal also reflects 
the inability of Apec trade and 
foreign ministers to agree a 
definition for regional free 
trade in the run-up to tomor- 
row's summit. Several Asian 
countries argue that Apec 
should be concerned with prin- 
ciples. leaving the actual mech- 
anism for trade liberalisation 
to be decided separately. 

Mr Supachai said the pro- 
posal by Apec's eminent per- 
sons group for full trade liber- 
alisation by 2020 contained “a 
lot of hidden suggestions and 
| nuances” and the possible con- 
sequences had not been fully 
thought through. 

Delegates said Apec would 
almost certainly have to defer 
until next year any decision on 
the tricky but fundamental 
question of how far Apec was 
to develop into a formal free 
trade area with common barri- 
ers to the rest of the world that 
could then be dropped in 
return for reciprocal conces- 
sions. 

Though the Apec leaders will 
be left to deal simply with an 
outline vision tomorrow, it 
would take wbat one official 
called “heroic political deci- 
sions” to agree even a broad 
and non-binding timetable for 
trade liberalisation. 


By Stefan Wegstyl and Fortran 
Sokhari in Islamabad 

Ms Benazir Bhutto, the 
Pakistani prime minister, yes- 
terday ordered the arrest of the 
75-year-old father of opposition 
leader Mr Nawaz Sharif, on 
allegations of tax evasion. 

The detention of Mr 
Mohammed Sharif Is the latest 
development in the bitter bat- 
tle between Ms Bhutto and Mr 
Nawaz Sharif winch has over- 
shadowed politics for five 
years. 

The move came on the eve of 
a joint session of parliament, 
the first since she took power 
last year, at which President 
Farooq Leghari is to make a 
key speech. Mr Nawaz Sharif s 
supporters last night promised 
to engulf the meeting with pro- 
tests. The Federation of Paki- 
stani Chambers of Commerce 


amd Industry warned of “a 
severe reaction” from business- 
men »mi«s his father was 
released. 

Mr Mohammed Shanf was 
arrested by the Federal Investi- 
gation Agency, which alleged 
tax evasion of income of about 
RslOOm (£2m). The agency-also 
charged, but did not arrest, Mr 
Nawaz Sharif s two brothers, 
Mr Abbas Sharif and Mr Shah- 
baz Sharif, and his son, Mr 
T frwsadn Nawaz Sharif. 

Mr Mohammed Sharif, a 
seif-made industrialist, is 
regarded as the architect of Mr 
Nawaz Sharif s rise to power. 
His arrest follows a sustained 
attartr on the family business 
empire by the Bhutto govern- 
ment, which, has ordered tax 
and fraud investigations by the 
Federal Anti-Corruption Com- 
mittee and the Federal Investi- 
gation Agency. 


Mr Nawaz Sharif yesterday ;', 
denied the', tax ' fraud - charges; - 
"The regime is /totally rattled 
and in panic on the eva of the', 
joint season of parifontent".; : v. 

The arrests come anddfec/' 
tional violence in Earachi, ti^ l- . 
commercial ; capital, , -where - : 

' about 20 peoplebave^ed^ee V 
last Thursday, and an armed,- 
uprising by tribesaci. fh~ ttfr j. 
north. The g^venimeaA at tt®. v 
weekend: also suffered,*. . 
ous foreign policy defeat'when. 
it failed to secure the support 
of other Islamic dates . fee >>v 
motton on the troubted-teg^ .... 
of Kashmir at., the United -V 
Nations General Assenddy^; 

• Hie State Bank afPafctetaiv 
the central bank, at the wade- 
end cut the maximum bank ' 
lending rate from 19 pet ceaf 
to 17.5 per cent to J8'omote“ - 
Investment and economic 
growth. 


Carmakers anticipate 
boom in Chinese mar 


S'.Ov- 


By Kevin Done, 

Motor industry Correspondent 

Around 20 of the world’s 
leading carmakers are to pres- 
ent plans to the Chinese gov- 
ernment this week for the 
development of an ambitious 
small family car project 

The Family Car Show in Bei- 
jing, organised by the Chinese 
authorities, is one of the best 
opportunities for carmakers 
from west Europe, the US and 
Japan to establish a presence 
in the Chinese car market, 
which is expected to set one of 
the fastest growth rates in the 
world car industry during the 
next two decades. 

Mr Helmut Werner, chief 
executive of Mercedes-Benz, 
the automotive subsidiary of 
Daimler-Benz of Germany, said 
annual new car registrations in 
China were expected to grow 
from around 450,000 to more 
than 2m by 20OL 

“ China is an important mar- 
ket of the future” which would 
experience a substantial 
growth in motor vehicle use, 
said Mr Werner. 

Mercedes-Benz, the German 
car and commercial vehicle 
maker, is seeking to enter tile 
Chinese car market with its 
Family Car China project for a 
1.3 litre, petrol-engined, five- 
seater car. 

It proposes an initial capac- 


ity to produce 250JXJO cars a 
year. The version would 
have a price of around $10,000, 
and Mercedes-Benz is offering 
a number of versions including 
a seven-seater MPV (multi-pur- 
pose vehicle}, a pickup and a 
light van. 

Mr Alex Tro tm an, chairman 
of Ford of the US, the world's 
second largest vehicle maker, 
which is also competing in the 
Family Car Show, met China's 
vice premier Li Lanqing in 
Detroit last week, to discuss 
Ford's plans for establishing 
technical and manufacturing 
centres in China. 

Ford is seeking to strengthen 
its case by establishing a series 
of automotive parts joint ven- 
tures in China, but it said it 
was “eager to establish vehicle 
assembly projects in China at 
the earliest opportunity”. 

Hie fierce competition in 
Beijing this week among car- 
makers coincides with the pub- 
lication of a report that urges 
caution, however, on vehicle 
producers seeking to gain 
access to the emerging car 
markets of the Pacific wim and - 
China. 

The study by the Economist 
Intelligence Unit forecasts a 55 
pm cent g row t h in sales of new 
vehicles in the region during 
the next seven years from 
4.75m in 1993 to 7.36m in 2000. 

It warns that much of this 


growth will not he accessible 
to outside investors for V. 
decade or more, however.:’ -. : 

"As the mature markets of - 
the world approach saturation, • . 
as the levels, of competition 
rise and unit profit- margin^ 
decline, and a* the burden of 
ove r c a pacity grows, the attrac- 
tion of there emerging marked - 
is in danger, of being over- 
stated by vehicle mamifiactur- -- 
ers anxious to find a new route 
into volume growth.” 

Congestion and pofiuthmats . ' 
already problems to the region,; 
with Bangkok suffering the. 
world's worst traffic conges- 
tion. Investment in the infra-' 
structure of there countries is 
for behind the growth in moto r -, 
vehicles, the report says. • 

The passenger, car market . 
usually begins to grow qufcMy 
when GDP per capita reaches .. . 
around $5,900 a year, bat it 
would take China at least 45 
years to reach this level, and 
the position is far worse in - 
India and Vietnam. 

The main areas of opportd^ 
nity in the markets of the 
Pacific Rim and China are cagy- 
rently in components and com- '■ 
mercial vehicles, says the - 
report 

The Automotive Sector of the - 
Pacific Rim and China: Moving, 
into the Fast Lane. £495. The, 
Economist Intelligence Unit, 15 
Regent St, London, SW1Y 4UL 


Mahathir’s Asia line 
delights Japanese 

Malaysia’s prime minister calls for Asia to say No 
to the west and tells Tokyo to stop apologising 
for wartime atrocities, reports Emiko Terazono 

D r Mahathir Mohamad Japan to break from its past helped Japan achieve its eco- 
is enjoying unprece- Dr Mahathir’s message is nomic success, 
dented m e dia exposure plain enough. He wants Jamn - Hnwpuor h« uvB .Tonal) 


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Australian 
claims irk 
Thailand 

By Peter Montagnon ; 

Australia’s prospects tor 
winning defence orders from 
Thailand may suffer after a 
dispute in Jakarta over allega- 
tions by Mr Gareth Evans, for- 
eign minister, that Thai busi- 
nessmen and soldiers were 
harbouring Khmer Rouge guer- 
rillas. - 

.• Australia tried yesterday to 
calm the row, which blew up 
after autopsies revealed that 
an Australian; Mr David Wil- 
son, and two other tourists 
| were bludgeoned to death by 
Khmer Rouge guerrillas in 
I Cambodia in September. 

After a meeting with Thai- 
land’s new foreign minister, Mr 
Thaksin Shinawatra, Mr Evans 
said his evidence of Thai sup- 
port for the guerrillas was out 
of date, and he now accepted 
that controls on immigration 
and arms, gems and logs, had 
been tightened up. Hie bilat- 
eral relationship was now “in 
very good shape", he said. 

However, Thai officials said 
concern remained about Aus- 
tralia’s use of old evidence to 
make the allegations. Mr 
Chuan Leekpai, prime minis- 
ter. might tell the Defence Min- 
istry not to place defence 
orders with Australia, they 
said. 


D r Mahathir Mohamad 
is enjoying unprece- 
dented media exposure 
in Japan. During recent weeks, 
the Malaysian prime minis ter 
has appeared on - Japanese 
national television and in 
mainstream dallies; his face 
covers popular weekly maga- 
zines and his name decorates 
books on the shelves of 
Tokyo’s big bookshops. 

The spotlight on Mr 
Mahathir has helped sales of 
his new book. An Asia that can 
Say No: A Card against the 
West It is co-authored with Mr 
Shin taro Ishihara, the popular - 
rightist politician and author 
of a controversial best-seller, A 
Japan That Can. Say No, in. 
, which he claimed America’s 
prejudice towards "yellow peo- 
ple* 1 was behind the US-Japan 
trade friction and called for 
Japan to stand up against US 
demands. The new publication 
rejects increasing western eco- 
nomic and . political taflnencBs 
-in Asia and maintains, that. 
Asian nations; which share the - 
game values, are distinct f ro m 
the US ami Europe. 

The Apec meetings in Indon- 
esia have raised interest In the : 
region and the premier among 
the Japanese public, along 
with Dr Mahathir’s recent com- 
ments endorsing Japan's bid 
for the UN. Securities Council 
seat. Moreover^ Ids disapproval 
of Japan’s unceasing apologies 
over- the atrocities during the 
second world war has also, 
been applauded by Japanese 
bureaucrats and politicians. 

Others have latched on to 
the media's Mahathir drive. Mr 
Kenichl Q hmflp , the manage- 
ment guru and former head of 
business consultants McKznsey 
In Japan, has published a book 
on Dr Mahathir, and a biogra- 
phy has also hit the shops. 

At a timp when Japan the 
country Is groping lor a bigger 
political and economic role in 
Asia; many Japanese have 
embraced the outspoken Dr 
Mahathir as a representative of 
the region who is allowing 


Japan to break from its past 
Dr Mahathir’s message is 
plain enough. He wants Japan 
to play a leading role in Asia, 
and stand up for the region in 
the international arena - in 
the Group of Seven industria- 
lised nations meetings and the 
United Nations. 

Aside from his anti-western 
laments, he also lists griev- 
ances about Japan’s.: relations 
with Asia. He criticises Japan 

Mahathir also • . 
criticises Japan ? s • 
indecisiveness 
towards: setting up ‘ 
an East Asian ' 
Economic Caucus ; 

for closing its markets to Aaian 
imports and for the lack of 
technology transfers. His fore- 
meet criticism is Japan’sinde- 
osiveness towards forming an 
East Asian'. Economic Caucus,* . 
a regional economic bloc. The 
plan groups together Asean : 
-and north-east Asian countries 
including Japan and China, 
but excludes US,. Canada and- 
Australia. 

Dr Mahathir believes ’Apec 
should be a loose grouping 
mainly concerned with helping 
development -of Asia-Pacific's 
weaker countries but that it 
has been taken over by the US, 
which already’ has its . own 
regional trade bloc, Nafta. He 
says small Asian countries 
need the caucus to counter 
“closed” regional trade blocs 
tike the EU and Nafta and to 
raise their profiles in the 
global arena. 

The caucus scheme has 
angered the US, and Japanese 
government officials and busi- 
ness groups have been non- 
committal towards - Dr 
Mahathir’s plan, not wanting 
to upset the US. Mr Mahathir 

acknowledges Japan’s deep 
“affinity” with the US. and 
acknowledges that the US has 


helped Japan achieve its eco- 
nomic success. 

However, he says Japan 
needs to re-evaluate such rela- 
tions. “The EAEC will take off 
as long as Japan takes charge," 
he says. 

Mr Mahathir’s criticism has 
pointed out a growing dilemma 
In the Japanese government. 
On the one hand -many officials 
. and business executives; are 
cautiously seeking a gradual 
; shift in Japan's.- foreign and 
trade policy from the US 
- towards Asia. ' /;V 

- Such a trend is -already 
.- apparent • in economic * rela- 
tions. The . Strong yep. has 
prompted -industries tp move 
manufacturing operations to 
Asia, ;boostiag myesafctate. 
while the increasing economic 
affluence, of the regfoij has 
made Jt the larged expbrt des- 
tination for Japan: JE^astyear, 
Japan’s trade' surplus: with the 
region surpassed. - its surplus 
•with the US .for the first time. 
Ten years ago, Japan exported 
a third more to the US than to 
. Aria' -r-ndw. ihe, balance is the 
other way. . . : 

O n' - fee - othfer . hiand, the US 
restates the.- central p illar in 
foreign and trade policy. Some 
. Japanese, officials camp argue 
that the country's economic 
Stability cannot be maintained 
without strung economic ties 
with the US, and that the inter- 
national community will not 
accept a security polity inde- 
pendent from America’s. In a 
recent m a ga z ine interview, Mr 
Ichi ro. Ozawa, the back-room 
strategist of- Japanese politics, 
also questioned Japan’s bud- 
ding allegiance with Asia. 
Where would Japan be without 
the US, and will Asian coun- 
tries trust a Japan without 
America's hacking, he asked. 

So far, Japan has yet to 
resolve the debate over 
whether it is a part or the east 
or west - an issue which has 
raged for over a century. How- 
ever, the economic and politi- 
cal links with the region are 
becoming too deep to ignore. 





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FINANCIAL TIMES MONDAY NOVEMBER 14 1994 



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Euro-sceptic MPs split over opposition to legislation raising contribution to EU funds 

Tories face new row over Europe 


UK NEWS DIGEST 


By David Owen 

Britain's governing Conservative party 
faced another damaging row over 
Europe yesterday, with rightwingers 
predicting that up to 20 MPs may 
oppose a controversial new European 
bill to be introduced in the next parlia- 
mentary session, starting this week. 

But Tory Eurosceptics are themselves 
■P™ on how to respond to the bill - 
which will increase Britain's contribu- 
tions to the European Union's budget 

Some Maastricht rebels are arguing 
that Eurosceptics should not vote 
against the forthcoming measure, 
known as the European Community 
(finance) bill, but should keep their 
powder dry until the 1996 EU intergov- 
ernmental conference. They predict 


Magnet 
advisers 
agree to 
settle case 


Advisers and bankers to the 
failed management buy-out of 
Magnet, the retailer of fitted 
kitchens, have agreed to settle 
court cases in which dam a g e 
could have been as high as 
£lbn, Robert Corzme writes. 

Parties involved include 
Bankers Trust, the US bank 
which led the hanking - syndi- 
cate. GR. Capital, one of the 
syndicate's members, Arthur. 
Andersen, adviser to Magnet’s 
management,, and Arthur 
Young. Magnet's auditor. . 

All parties to the dispute 
have signed a settlement agree- 
ment that will come into effect 
when one undisclosed condi- 
tion is met Those close to the 
dispute say a full settlement 
could be hi place by the end of 
the month. 

The companies involved 
refuse to discuss the settle- 
ment terms. But the payment 
expected to be made by Arthur 
Andersen to Bankers Trust is 
thought to be less than £50m. 
Arthur Yonng, now part of 
Ernst & Young, is expected to 
contribute to the settlement. 

The £629m Magnet buy-out 
in 1969 was the largest ever 
and the first involving “mezza- 
nine” finance.- •••■' ■" \ " • 


that no more than six Conservatives 
will end up opposing this year's bill. 

As MPs began preparing to return to 
Westminster for Wednesday's Queen's 
Speech to parliament, rumours contin- 
ued to circulate about a possible chal- 
lenge this month to prime minister 
John Major's leadership. 

While some rightwingers would wel- 
come such a challenge, others yester- 
day dismissed the prospect. 

Mr Major will tonight use his annual 
speech at the Lord Mayor's banquet in 
London to deliver a wide-ranging 
address, covering the economy, domes- 
tic issues and Northern Ireland as well 
as foreign affairs. 

Eurosceptics last night responded 
cautiously to a letter sent to all MPs by 
Mr Kenneth Clarke, the chancellor of 


the Exchequer, seeking to win their 
support for the forthcoming bill. 

Mr BUI Cash, Conservative MP for 
Stafford, said the arithmetic set out in 
the letter - which admitted that the 
measure would result in net costs for 
the UK - was being given a “very thor- 
ough investigation”. He said the letter 
put “the best gloss on an extremely 
unsatisfactory situation”. 

Sir Teddy Taylor, Tory MP for 
Southend East, said it might be 
counterproductive for ministers to seek 
to “raise the temperature" in their pro- 
motion of the bilL He said Britain's net 
contribution to the EU was set to rise 
from £L7bn ($2.8bn) in 1994-95 to nearly 
£3Sbn in 1995-96. 

Mr Major secured cabinet backing 
last week for a battle plan for the bill. 


He urged ministers to make clear to 
critics that the cost was estimated at 
only £75m next year, and a maximum of 
£250m by 2000. 

Rightwingers acknowledge that their 
prospects of overturning the govern- 
ment's 14-strong Commons majority 
and blocking the bill depend on the 
position adopted by Labour. 

Mr Clarke's letter - sent on Friday - 
emphasised that the UK’s 
rebate, or abatement which was negoti- 
ated by Baroness Thatcher when she 
was prime minister in the 1980s, would 
continue. 

He admitted that many MPs would 
wonder why the government had 
agreed a settlement tha t increased the 
revenue that the EU could raise from 
Its member states. 



Britain’s largest trainmaker, ABB 
Transportation, has unveiled the Bnro- 
tram, which ABB project manager John 
Swanson (left) and marketing manager 
John Clark hope will provide significant 
orders to replace diminishing train busi- 
ness, Chris Tighe writes. 

A £50m order for 26 Euro trams is near- 
ing completion at ABB's York works for 
the French city of Strasbourg, where a 
new tram service will be inaugurated next 
week. • :•••• 


The sleek, glass-fronted vehicle is the 
first tram to be made at the 150-year-old 
York works. 

Securing more train or tram orders in 
the near future is highly important for 
the works. Its order book ends next Octo- 
ber when it finishes its last British Rail 
order, worth £150m, for 188 Networker 
commuter trains. 

The imminent completion of the Stras- 
bourg tram order led to the announce- 
ment in September of 289 redundancies, a 


quarter of the workforce. The jobs will go 
by the end of this year. 

ABB believes the electrically-powered 
Euro tram offers it a potentially big mar- 
ket opportunity in Britain and continen- 
tal Europe. “The Euro tram is such an 
excellent product we're very hopeful well 
secure orders,” said a company spokes- 
woman. Cities it is targeting include 
Milan, Nottingham, Croydon and Leeds, 
all currently considering tram network 
development 


Concern at 
lottery cash 
distribution 


Tickets for Britain's National 
A Lottery go on sale at about 
w 10,000 retail outlets today. But 

jBL the National Heritage Depart- 

meat has made known its con- 
WU cera about the slow progress of 
the work of the National Lot- 
THE NATIONAL tery Charities Board, the body 
lotthw set up to distribute hundreds 
of nulliona of pounds of proceeds to charity 
from the National Lottery over the next seven 
years. The board, which is likely to be inun- 
dated with applications for funds, admitted to 
a Sunday newspaper yesterday that it did not 
have a bank account for grant purposes and 
did not know when it would channel money 
through to pay grants. 

The first of the weekly National Lottery 
draws wQl take place next Saturday and the 
first cheque will go to the National Lottery 
Distribution Fund at the National Heritage 
Department on Wednesday week. 

The money for the distribution fund will be 
made up of around 28p from every £1 lottery 
ticket bought, and five good causes will each 
get an equal split Apart from charities the 
causes are: the arts, the national heritage, a 
millenium fund and sport 

Visa bids to extend 
corporate card use 

Visa International, the payments organisation, 
is today launching a bid to change the corpo- 
rate charge card from being just a way of 
paying for travel and entertainment to being a 
general method of buying goods. The idea, 
which was launched in the US earlier this 
year, is that a company will use the card to 
buy low-value items such as stationery and 
maintenance supplies. 

This will sharply cut the cost of dealing with 
the purchase because much of the paperwork 
will he removed from the transaction. 
Research for Visa by Andersen Consulting 
suggests that the cost of processing a single 
purchase order and invoice Is typically £60. 
The billing arrangements should also mean 
that companies receive more information 
about where they buy their supplies, offering 
them the opportunity to rationalise purchas- 
ing. 

Pilot schemes involving Barclays Bank, Mid- 
land Bank and National Westminster Bazik are 
being carried out with 25 companies, including 
BOC, Anglian Water and Shefl. 

But the move into general corporate pur- 
chasing will require more suppliers to accept 
Visa cards: the pilot with BOC found that 
about half of Its 1,300 suppliers had to be 
newly signed up for the payment method. 


Economists warn 
on skills training 

The British government should take steps in 
the Budget to encourage skills training if the 
UK manufacturing revival is to be sustained. 
Economists from Lloyds Bank argue, in their 
latest monthly bulletin, that low s kills levels 
are “probably the single greatest threat to the 
improved condition of UK manufacturing,” 

UK manufacturing output has been rising 
for over two years, and is now growing at 
close to 4 per rent per year. The bulletin says 
this reflects the changing nature of the eco- 
nomic recovery, with investments and exports 
providing more impetus for growth. It predicts 
that manufacturing output as a whole should 
accelerate into 1995. 

The Lloyds Bank economists, Mr Sheldon 
Warton- Woods and Mr Patrick Moon, cite 
these growth rates as evidence that the 
long-term decline in UK manufacturing hac 
bottomed out The past 25 years have seen 
manufacturing's share of UK GDP decline 
from around one-third to close to one-fifth. 

Graduate job 
prospects improve 

Graduate employment prospects in the UK 
have improve! over the past year, a study 
released today shows. In its annual graduate 
review, the Institute of Employment Studies 
found a 4 per cent rise in the number of , 
vacancies for graduates, the first increase 
since 1990. 

The unemployment rate among graduates , 
was 12 per rent, down from 13 per rent In 1993. , 
The institute said the unemployment rate was 
still much higher than in the boom years of , 
the 1980s, though lower on average than the 
rate among non-graduates. 

This year's good news on the increase in ' 
vacancies for graduates is associated with a 
growing number of employers who reported j 
difficulties in recruiting skilled workers. In 
1993 17 per cent of companies said they had ! 
trouble recruiting. In 1994 the proportion rose I 
to 30 per cent The main problems were find- I 
ing suitable employees with engineering, 
finance or accountancy skills. j 

Tiger kills zookeeper 

A zookeeper was killed yesterday by a tiger | 
when he entered its enclosure at a zoo with a 
history of fatal and other attacks by animals 
including big cats. 

Mr Trevor Smith, 33, had gone to clean out 
the enclosure of a pair of Siberian tigers at 
Howletts Zoo Park in Bekesboume, near Can- 
terbury in south-east England, when one of 
them leapt on him and bit his neck. 

Kent police said Mr Smith had stroked both 
tigers moments before one of them turned on 
him and picked him up by the head. The male 
tiger then lay on top of the keeper and had to 
be beaten away with a spade by another zoo 
employee. 

The zoo, which is owned by millionaire Mr 
John Aspinall, has been dogged by deaths and 
maulings of both keepers and visitors in 
recent years. 




Swiss Bank 
Corporation 

Your key investment bankers. 













8 


0 ' 


r 


FINANCIAL TIMES MONDAY NOVEMBER 14 1994 


M AN AGEM ENT 


A rkady Dvorkovich is one 
of the stars of the first 
graduating year of a 
remarkable university 
which lives precariously 
on the 17th floor of a former Soviet 
institute of great prestige. 

Behind him Is a blackboard cov- 
ered with econometric equations. 
"It’s a different way of thinking 
about life." he says. "That’s what is 
most difficult at first." 

Dvorkovich is no longer at the 
university, but has lust dropped by 
for a chat. The class is on a break 
and the students sit about compar- 
ing notes or smoke In the corridor. 

The New Economic School, two 
years old, is still a pioneer in the 
teaching of market economics to a 
new generation of Russian manag- 
ers, economists and professors. 

It is indeed a different way of 
thinking about life. The Soviet 
Union trained its managers and 
economists to be part of a system in 
which there was no division 
between state and economy; where 
the State Planning Agency and the 
ministries directed inputs and out- 
puts. demand and supply; where 
choice, quality and convenience 
were of no interest; where the provi- 
sion of raw materials and compo- 
nents was handled by one agency, 
distribution by another, personnel 
matters by the Co mmunis t: Party 
and the trade unions - and the 
managers left with technicalities. 

Economic life thus came to be 
seen as a series of discrete areas 
existing within an overall frame- 
work of control - oppressive but 
secure. Economics within this sys- 
tem was. in theory, Mar xism and. in 
practice, keeping the show on the 
road without questioning how it 
moved. 

The collapse of tbe system, and 
with it the doomed efforts of the 
perestroika period to give managers 
more independence while retaining 

The hardest thing Is 
to find out what the 
teachers mean. But 
their style of teaching 
is more exciting than 
at university* 

the integrity of a socialist planned 
economy, pitched Russian manage- 
ment and economic teaching into a 
void. 

While the basics of a market were 
easy enough to pick up - and had 
anyway been sanctioned in peasant 
markets - the larger issues of enter- 
prise management and, beyond 
that, the macro-economic frame- 
work within which the enterprises 

T he system of management 
and economic teaching 
which Russia inherited 
from the Soviet Union was 
at once narrowly technical and 
specialist and highly disciplined. 
Managers were taught little other 
than their specific skill - but 
mathematical economists were 
taken to very high levels of 
proficiency and theoretical 
abstraction. Missing between these 
two was a holistic view of the 
economy and an all-round 
conception of management 
A large number of organisations 
have appeared to address this gap 
in the market In the past three 
years - ranging from national 
institutes to "schools for survival" 


John Lloyd visits a pioneering school which is teaching 
advanced market economics to graduates 

Russia’s Harvard gets 
down to business 


fit were largely unknown. 

In 1991, Professor Gul Ofer, an 
economist and Soviet specialist at 
Hebrew University, thought he 
could address the problem by 
starting a school for graduates 
which would teach market econom- 
ics. in English, at advanced leveL 

To start anything in Russia is to 
invite grief. Ofer and his colleagues 
spent months haggling for office 
space - finall y fi n di n g their exigu- 
ous premises in the Central Eco- 
nomic-Mathematical Institute, an 
Academy of Sciences institution 
built up in the 1960s. It was Impor- 
tant in tbe Gorbachev period as a 
centre of reformist thinking , partic- 
ularly associated with Professors 
Nikolai Petrakov and Stanislav 
Shatalin. Importantly, they got sup- 
port from Professor Igor Makarov, 
head of the institute and dean of the 
school. 

F undin g came from the ubiqui- 
tous Soros Foundation and (now) 
from tbe Eurasia Foundation, a 
recently created US fund devoted to 
projects in the former Soviet Union. 
Together they put up {750,000 
(£457,000) a year. 

This allows the school to pay half 
a dozen professorial salaries and 
take in some 30-40 students each 
year - many from Moscow State 
University, the country's most pres- 
tigious. but others from elsewhere 
in Russia and a few from former 
Soviet states. 

It is formidably hard. The stu- 
dents in Professor Eden's class - in 
their early 20s - were following a 
discussion on inflation. "If you have 
a government with a fiscal prob- 
lem,” says Eden, sp eaking to citi- 
zens of the country with one of the 
greatest fiscal problems on earth. 
It can print money and sell the 
money for goods. There's always a 
temptation to do that; it may not 
make sense in the long run.” Tbe 
students scribbled in their note- 
books. 

"I find the speed of it most diffi- 
cult,” says Muscovite Anna Pavlova 



after the class. "We must learn sub- 
jects in a few weeks if we are to 
pass the exams and write a master’s 
thesis. It's much Caster work than at 


the university." 

The course dearly means that the 
bright - like Dvorkovich, who will 
go on to further study in the west - 


flourish and the weaker are left 
behind- “The hardest thing is to 
find out what the teachers really 
mean," says Pavlova. “But their 


Jumping on the bandwagon 


organised in hotels and even 
private flats. Indeed, the skills 
required by today's business people 
are, as Igor Bunin, director of a 
think tank specialising in 
management issues, says; "More to 
do with finding one's way around a 
human and bureaucratic jungle 
than with profit and loss 
accounting.” 

The big Institutes - such as the 
Institute of the Economy, the 
Central Mathematical Institute, die 
Institute of the Economy of the 
World Socialist System and tbe 


Institute of Economics and 
Organisation of Industrial 
Production - used to dominate tbe 
academic scene. 

In the last years of communism, 
smaller think tanks sprang up, 
where the young men and women 
who staffed the first wave of 
reform thrashed out their ideas. At 
the same time, often with western 
assistance, business schools were 
established on the base of an 
existing university department 

Italian institutions seem to have 
been first in the field: in 1989, the 


Bocconi University Business School 
of Milan in association with 
Leningrad University formed the 
Leningrad Management Institute 
(now tiie International 
Management Institute of St 
Petersburg); and the Nomisma 
Institute of Bologna founded 
Mirbis, the Moscow International 
Business School. 

According to research by the 
Judge Institute of Management 
Studies at Cambridge University, 
most of the world's big business 
schools now have links, run 


courses or have formed joint 
ventures with Russian 
counterparts: a group of US 
colleges has begun a consortium 
for teaching Russian executives. 

The Russian Academy of 
Sciences, reeling from toe cuts in 
its budget and constitutionally 
unable to respond rapidly to 
change, has been so slow to react 
that, in September, the Economics 
Ministry together with the 
committee on higher education said 
it was by-passing academia to set 
up or extend a Higher Economic 


performances and style of teaching 
are mnch nw re than at nnfc- 

verrity." 

This last rammont {5 hardly sur- 
prising. These students come out of 
universities which are. being 
starved of fimds, are taught by pro- 
fessors who must take an extra job 
or jobs to make ends meet and who 
themselves struggle with, new con- . 
cepts they once viewed - or still 
view - as reprehensible., ■ 

"The professors ' have only 
recently learned about the new eco- 
nomics." says Anton Afanasiev. 
"They mix things up- Most of them 
are for state regulation of some 
sort, or maybe for some kind of 
mixed economy. Very few are for a 
market economy." 

Eden, who normally teaches at 
tha Technion Engineering Institute 
at Haifa and Is an adviser to the 
Israeli Bank, says that "these stu- 
dents match up or are even better 
than tbe ones I teach. They work 
terribly hard*. 

Ofer, a big humorous man who 
.shuttles between' Moscow and 
' Israel, faces the perennial problems 
of a Moscow manager, "we need 
more space but we can’t find it and 
our rent-free status is now in doubt 
Makarov got us In without rent but 
now his people are putting pressure 
on him to ask us. After all. the rest 
of the institute is full of people pay- 
ing rent for office space - why not 
us? 1 ' 

Ofer’s connections ensure that 
the school gets some of the stars of 
the international economic circuit 
stopping by. Michael Bruno, now 
chief economist at the World Bank, 
gave a talk at which he floated the 
idea that Russia might find a 
unique way to the market with pri- 
vatisation playing more of a role 
than macroeconomic levers. 

Professor Jeffrey Sachs of Har- 
vard, former adviser to Russian 
minis ters, has talked twice; Boris 
Fyodorov, the former finance minis- 
ter. made time In a ministerial 
schedule to treat the students to a 
scathing description of how deci- 
sions are avoided in the Russian 
government. 

In the computer room, students 
eschew the games which are played 
monotonously in every office with a 
screen and keyboard and instead 
pore over spreadsheets and columns 
of figures. Others sit in the corri- 
dors or on toe hard seats, reading 
textbooks and articles. The scruffy, 
makeshift offices and classrooms 
have the life about them of young 
men and women actively grappling 
with a system of knowledge they 
are meeting for the first time in 
such a concentrated way. It is not 
Harvard Business School - it is 
something at once poorer and 
purer. 

School and an Academy of 
Contemporary Economics - both : 
assisted with grants from tbe 
European Union. 

Alexander Shokhin, then the 
deputy prime minister for . 
economics, said that Russia must 
quickly get into the position of 
offering "the same level of 
education in economics as other 
leading countries". 

Professor Yevgeny Yasin. a 
presidential adviser on the 
economy and something of a doyen 
of reform, will be dean of toe new 
academy. He says: "The initiative 
that we academics and professors 
are starting is not for us and our 
generation; it is for the students of 
today and tomorrow.” . 


Glance backwards for clues to success 


R ecently i changed jobs and 
offices, and discovered 
that my predecessor, in 
his haste, had left his 
books behind. What a peculiar col- 
lection. Odder than you could imag- 
ine. Most of them were dispatched 
with severely limited ceremony, 
especially those with titles like 
Feminism and Materialism: Women 
and Modes of Production. 

But one of them caught my eye in 
time to save it. although its 
reprieve was only temporary. It was 
called Foresight m Science, and was 
about picking winners. It contained 
a brief section that I found iliumlna- 
ting, for it described Project Hind- 
sight, a study conducted in the mid- 
1960s by the US Defence Depart- 
ment that assessed the relative con- 
tributions of science and technology 
to the development of 20 types of 
weapon, including Polaris, the Min- 
ute man I CBM and the C-141 air- 
craft. Apparently. Project Hindsight 
consumed more than 50 person- 
years of effort, and produced some 
valuable findings. 


Another indication of the poten- 
tial benefits of hindsight is offered 
by Douglas Rushkoff in his book 
Cyberia, which is sub-titled Life in 
the Trenches of Hyperspace and is 
better than it sounds. Rushkoff 
describes an off-the-record chat 
with a personnel executive at a 
leading southern Californian 
defence contractor. 

Tins man admitted that his com- 
pany’s biggest problem was per- 
suading "alternative culture mem- 
bers" (ie. psychedelic- friendly 
computer programmers) to work for 
it. He told Rushkoff, between sips of 
Earl Grey, that the "long-hairs 
we've hired have the ability to 
attack computer problems from 
completely different angles. It 
would be interesting to take the 
plans of a stealth bomber and trace 
back each innovation to the com- 
puter it was drawn on. I bet the 
tie-dyes would win out over the 
pocket-protectors every time.” 

Hindsight is such a useful thing 
that I am astounded that companies 
spend so much of their tune staring 


MICHAEL , 
THOMPSON-NOEL 



forwards - instead of glancing back- 
wards - for clues to greater success. 
I myself, for example, have made 
numerous resounding suggestions 
over the years. I made an outstand- 
ing suggestion for corporate 
advancement in 1970, another in 
1971, two in 1972. one in 1973. 1974. 
1976. 1973. 1981. 1985 and 1993. 

Hindsight would seem to be of 
most use to companies that are 
heavily marketing-oriented: that 
rely on the frequent production of 
good creative ideas. On reflection, 
though. I don't see why it shouldn't 
be of equal use to stodgy old banks, 
or stodgy old anythings - enter- 
prises that one does not, automati- 


cally associate with the frequent 
production of good creative ideas. 

Hindsight could be the wave of 
the future. 


The headline on a recent advertise- 
ment for Scottish Amicable Euro- 
pean was big. black and arresting. 
It said: “Death begins at 40.” The ad 
was about critical illness insurance. 
I was feeling well at the time, but 
the headline was so insistent that I 
read the whole thing. (Nothing 
unusual there: I am that strangest 
of creatures, a journalist who Ukes 
ads.) 


"Things.” said the ad. "start to go 
wrong at about 40. That’s when tbe 
incidence of cancer, heart attack 
and stroke begins to climb . . . One 
in seven 40-year-olds will suffer a 
heart attack or cancer before the 
age of 60. If you're one of them, 
what will happen when you 
recover?” 

It was a nicely-written ad. andr 
went on to plug the merits of the 
client's new Flexible Critical Illness 
Plan, which need not detain us. 
However. It reminded me of the con- 
vulsions in the insurance market 
likely to occur when genetic testing 
gets into its stride. For example, 
those two great killers, heart dis- 
ease and cancer, are strongly ihflu- - 
raced by genes. Before long, many 
of us may be able to learn the prob- 
able date of our death. But should 
insurance companies have the right 
to demand the results of genetic 
tests? 

Some weeks ago I had lunch with 
Steve Jones, who is professor of 
genetics at the Gal ton Laboratory of 
University College. London. In his 


view, genetics may kill off the life 
insurance business, because it 
erodes our Ignorance of future dis- 


“No one," he has written, “will 
pay for health cover when they are 
pretty certain that they will live to 
a ripe old age, or when the (insur- 
ance] company knows that an 
expensive Ulness is programmed 
into the genes and charges accord- 
ingly. Insurance already suffers 
from the feet that people at high 
risk are more likely to buy a policy. 
There may be a war of cost escala- 
tion which ends with only risk- 
prone people paying for health 
insurance." 

All this, says Jones, is an argu- 
ment for a National Health Service, 
which diffuses Individual risk 
among a whole population. 

Personally, I hate insurance. 1 
resent being asked to pay inflated 
premiums to cover Hahns made by 
people who are unlnckler, stupider, 
more negligent, more pixQated or 
less truthful than I am. There's an 
awful lot of you around. 


[ter-/: 



v?. 

■s 

P.-r. 


PIOJWEEKSAND 

PROPmflS 

Alfred P 
Sloan 

ABfedP Sloan'S (1875-1986) sole 
contribution .to management' 
literature is My Years at General 
Motors. Published in 1963. it-Js a 

outpaced, intricate account of 
how Sloan managed GM- Sloan " 
mnot an iq^tempo evangelist 
. withapitby catch-phrase anda 
store of witty anecdotes, and yet 
the book: is among the most 
Important In management and 
Sloan one of the'naost jnjhientiai 
managers of the century. 

V "Bis book. Is one.tirin& what, 
he did atGM is quite another* 
says Lbhdon Business School's 
Smmmtra Ghosbal. "Sloan 
created a ne* organisational- 
-form - therattiti-ttivisienal form 
which became a doctrine ttf ;* 

. managemraL Today, It is not 
ascribed to bhn, tat Sloan was - 
' Its Instigator.” . 

. Sloan became president of GM 
in 1923, chairman to 1946 and 
honorary chairman from 1956 
.until his deagfc. When he took 
over, GM was stroggling, to hold 
its own asyoitLwtth its Model . 
- T. swept all aside. He set about 
revltaHstog and'reorganisiiig 
GM along “federaT Tines, the 
f very antithesis of tbfl way Ford 
organised itself. He replaced 
GM*s messy, bureaucratic, 
centralised system with one . 
based on efivisiaas, each with its 
own clearly detineated 
. responsibilities. More than 30 
divisions, farther divided, into 
groups, emerged. 

Instead of flgbttDg for 
dominance, separate functions 
were treated as equals. r 
In the marketplace, GSTs 
products - including Chevrolet 
and Cadillac ~ competed as. 
separate divisions. 

Mach of the current debate 
about bring both local -and 

global can be traced back to 

•; Sloan's delicate balancing act 
between the twin forces of 
decentraUsatfon and . 
centralisation. Sloan's triumph 
.was fri.adtiering a balance over 
so many years.' • 

The decentralised structure 
proved the making of GM. By 
the fete 1970s its US market 
share was m ore than 45 per 
cent, compared with 12 per cent 
when Sloan took overtn the 
1920s’ The federal structure 
• meant that instead of 
concerning themselves with the 
nitty-gritty of production, 
executives could torn their 
energies to ensuring that 
divttitms met their performance 
targets and to providing overall 
direction. GfiTs fortunes revived 
and Sloan began to meet ids aim 
of providing a car for "every 
parse and every purpose". 

•The new GM became 
venerated as a model of 
management But troubles 
emerged, with the . 
multi-divisional system. It was 
buBt around a vast web of 
committees and groups which 
. became bogged down in their 
own. power struggles and 
bureaucracy. Stringent targets 
and narrow measures of success 
stultified initiative. Also, by the 
Ifl60s the dehcatebalance was 
tost- finance emerged ais the 
dominant function — ami DM 
.became paralysed by what bad 
coco made lt great 
.. Even so. Sloan’s legacy fives 
on - the multi-ffivistonal 
or ganisati on -r emains dominant; 

In tha 1980s it was estimated 
that 85 per cent of large 
corporationir had ad opted the 
mnlti-dMsional structure. Only 
now, says Ghosbal, is a new, 
more entrepreneurial, 
organisational model emerging 
to replace tin world according 
to Sloan. 

‘Stoart Cramer 


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9 


FINANCIAL TIMES MONDAY NOVEMBER 14 1994 ★ 


BUS I NESS T R A V E L 


Zaventem revamp 

Bnissds afaport opens Its 

new tormina! bulkBng on 
D ^™ ber 11, completing 
a $G74n revamp of an 

long criticised as 

coWatod. The new 
term inal win rates the 
abport^s capacity to ism 
P®***i96fs annually, and 

"will be one of the most 

b0ailt, tel and modem 
£drp<#t buildings’*, an 
official says. 


For years, Zaventem 
airport has been Ihe butt 

ofjotas, with long queues 

irritating passengers at 
the 40-year-oW terminal 
b *™*8- Prtme Minister 
Jean-Luc Dehaene 
<1 ®8cr3»edl Zaventem last 
year as ■•a rather 


provincial a irport” in 
serious need of renovation. 
Passenger numbers have 
doubled to mors than 10m 
a year, and Sabena, the 
national alrHne, wants 
Zaventem to be a Euro-hub 
tor business travel. 

The first stage of the 
modernisation and 
extension of the airport -a 
section of the new 
departure hafl, a portion of 
the arrivals area and a new 
baggage-hamffing system - 
was opened last June. The 
project, initially budgeted at 
$26710, was started at the 
end of 1989 and was due to 
be unueffed at theend of In 
late 1992. K Is supported 
by the state and private 
companies. 


Mean streets 

Indonesia is sticking to its 
prom is© to sweep the normally 
teeming streets of Jakarta dean 

of transvestites, prostitutes. 

street vendors and beggars in 
honour of ihe Apse summit 
Transvestites and prostitutes 
have been chased off the 
streets while vendors' food carts 
have been barred from the dty 
centre. On-the-spot push-ups 
are being revived as punishment 
tor jaywalking, though there 
have bean no reports of foreign 
visitors being ordered to do 
push-ups. An American 00 
executive recently panicked 
when a transvestite dived Into 
Ns car. Only after much 
shouting and 50,000 rupiah 
(S22) later could the oilman drive 
oft unaccompanied. 


Safety row 

UBAlr has 
afionmd jets 
to leave gates 
without 
enough feel 
at least nine 
times and once used a jet 
for 13 days despite a 
dangerous crack, on Its 
wing flap, the New York 
Tones reported at the 
weekend. Despite 
assurances from IlSAir and 
federal officials, a 
two-month review of the 
airline s h o w ed numerous 
safety and traMng 
pr oble ms, it said. 

In one incident, the pacts 

of a Washmgton-to-Boston 

flight did not check to see if 
the aircraft had enough 


fuel. When forced to land at 
La GtarcBa aftport. New 
York, they Had and ratfioed 
the control tower that they 
had fro land because of 
engine trouble. A f ter ward s, 
the captain admitted there 
had been no engine trouble. 

On September 8 a (ISAfr 
Boeing 737 crashed near 
Pittsburgh inter na tio na l 
airport, Ulfing aB 132 

aboard. Last July a USAfe- 

jet crashed hi Charlotte, 
(forth Garoflna, In a 
thunderstorm, kfwng 37 of 
07 people aboard. USAir 
executives told the 
newspaper the accidents 
were not connected and 
there was no reason to 
thaw negative conclusions 
about safety. 


Flight of peace 

A new Irish air route opens on 
December 2 in tha first big 
cross-border push for travel 
business shoe the IFW 
ceasefire. Rights between 
Belfast and Keny win be a 
"concrete example of toe peace 
initiative at work", says Go 
Ireland, toe company promoting 
toe service. It sak£ "We would 
hope this is toe first of many 
such flights, opening new 
markets north and south of toe 
border." 

• KLM Royal Dutch Airlines' 
business-class price reductions 
on fares to places outside 
Europe, referred to last week, 
are available only In the Dutch 
market KLM said. Journeys 
stating in the UK or elsewhere 
do not qualify. 



Likely weather in the leading business centres 

Man Tus Wed Thur Fri 

| Tolcpr ■■ ' v • 13 ^ 13 •« <*£)" 75. 

| Hong Kong <£2>20 ^29 29 Sk 29 ^29 

§ be** V : 1^15 ...ffifr .« . tjp-« ■ 6 .• ’ 8 

I Fmnttnt 12 13 9 ^ S jR) 7 

! ABWYork . ^ 17 <£Sl® 11 13 1« 

* L Angeles 22 jg>j 22 ^ 20 18 jj£\j 23 

I 'mm ’ .ia' <4 -.^5.14 i* g5 

| Porta t£?S 14 14 11 9 P\ 7 

I *Brtch' .^3 18 ’ ; 7 ft 3 

Maximum cenTparetma m Cefafu* 


V 


Rash-fhe service tor time sensitive sWpmenrs. 

081 -750 3030 for more information. 0 Lufthansa Cargo 


I t was not so long ago that 
the phrase “airline code- 
share” crept into use. A 
consumer-oriented maga- 
zine uncovered the practice 
and suggested it was mislead- 
ing: airlines went on the defen- 
sive; industry trade bodies 
applied pressure; and the vic- 
tims - air travellers - grappled 
with the new concept. 

Airline code-sharing is a sim- 
ple process. It is when two air- 
lines use a single flight desig- 
nator - or flight number - to 
market a through service. It 
can mean that while you are 
booked on one airline you ran 
unexpectedly end up making 
part of your journey on 
another airline. 

Travel agents have difficulty 
discovering whether a flight is 
code-shared or not. Not all air- 
line computer reservation 
systems highlight the practice 
early enough in their listings. 
As a result, booking agents, 
always under pressure to get 
the job done, often do not warn 
passengers of what is in store 
for them. 

The oft-used example was 
the code-sharing arrangement 
between Emirates and Cyprus 
Airways. If you booked Emir- 
ates’ flight EK 407 from Dubai 
to Lamaca you did not fly with 
Emirates. Bather, you flew 
Cyprus Airways, whose Euro- 
pean-style business class does 
not match the long-haul com- 
forts offered by Emirates* busi- 
ness class. However, this par- 
ticular arrangement was ended 
last week. 

There is less controversy 
among industry pressure 
groups If the two airlines that 
are code-sharing offer travel- 
lers comparable standards. But 
if they* - : cl©arly offer 
different quality and safety 


The code few 
people can crack 

Emily Juste on an airline practice that is 
worrying some passengers 


y^Dtoi^ic^teKK] |^aa □ DD^dba □ dp -ado .ofloffli' H oa agon aoDpoaDDa 




standards, passengers are 
being deceived. 

If Joe Public books with Air- 
line A in a modern aircraft 
type, but flies on part of the 
route with inferior-standard 
Aiiiine B on an older, less well- 
cared-for aircraft, there are 
obviously grounds for com- 
plaint 

Code-sharing is a worrying 
trend because Its use has 
spread throughout the airline 
industry and to all big carriers. 
Even British Airways code- 
shares with its US partner, 
USAir. If you book a BA trans- 
atlantic ticket and an onward 
domestic US leg, you will cross 
the Atlantic on BA but the 
US leg will be on USAir. 

The advantage to airlines is 
being able to expand route net- 
works With minimal outlay. 
Instead 1 of 1 competing against 
one another on the same route, 


two airlines operate the route 
jointly. 

It’s not all negative for trav- 
ellers. There are some advan- 
tages. Your baggage is booked 
through to your final destina- 
tion: you need only one ticket; 


and. because of the linking of 
frequent-flyer programmes, 
you may want to choose a 
code-share flight to maximise 
rewards. 

As airlines increasingly link 
with partner airlines to 
increase their muscle 


in the marketplace, the code- 
share trend is set to 
continue. 

Business Traveller magazine 
exposed the practice last 
March. The Air Transport 
Users Council iAUC) was on 


the case, too, and now. belat- 
edly. bodies such as the Guild 
of Business Travel Agents 
(GBTA) are jumping on board 
to express discontent Passen- 
gers' rights are being 
defended. 

“Things are looking up." 


says Tony Hockley of the AUC. 
“Airlines are making sure it 
doesn’t backfire on them and 
that their passengers' goodwill 
isn’t lost. 1 can’t believe that 
any airline would willingly 
deceive its customers. You can 
only deceive them once, and 
they certainly don't want dis- 
gruntled passengers." 

British Airways now prints 
on its tickets the name of the 
airline operating its services, 
while KLM and Lufthansa also 
tell their passengers that they 
are travelling on a code-share 
flight. United has always 
placed an itinerary card on the 
front of all its tickets listing 
the carriers operating its 
flights. 

American Airlines was the 
first carrier to come out pub- 
licly against code-sharing, call- 
ing it “basically deceptive". 
Bur American continues 


If Joe Public books with Airline A in a 
modem aircraft, but flies part of the 
route with inferior Airline B on an 
older, less well-cared-for aircraft, there 
are grounds for complaint 


An hour to spare: Glasgow 


to code-share as it feels 
obliged to match competitors’ 
tactics. 

At a conference last month. 
Hans Mirka, a senior American 
Airlines vice-president, listed 
several reasons for opposing 
code-sharing. Among theme it 
deceives customers, who are 
promised one thing and given 
another; it is “profoundly anti- 
competitive". since it creates 
combinations between former 
competitors which d iminish 
me aning ful price and product 
competition; and it will “cer- 
tainly discourage independent 
carriers". 

The US Department of Trans- 
portation is proposing a piece 
of legislation to dear up the 
lack of disclosure. Current 
rules stipulate that a travel 
agent selling a ticket should 
tell the customer about code- 
sharing. But a survey revealed 
that only 30 per cent of passen- 
gers were being informed that 
they were booked on a code- 1 
share flight. In Europe, the 
EU is considering the ! 
issue. 

The onus is now on travel I 
agents to inform passengers 
and to take more time to estab- I 
lish whether flights are code- , 
shared or not. Computer reser- | 
vation systems such as Sabre, , 
Gallileo and Apollo do have the ! 
correct information, but it 1 
often surfaces on screen only I 
after many promptings. 

The GBTA set up a lobbying 
group some weeks ago. What it 
wants is complete transpar- 
ency on code-sharing. “The 
industry is at fault,” says 
GBTA chairman David Reyn- 
olds. “You can’t pin it 
[solely] on the computer 
reservation systems or the 
airlines. They're both at ! 
fault." 


You ore in Glasgow, with an 
hour between meetings. What 
to do? 

Dr William Hunter has an 
assured place in medical his- 
tory as a famous obstetrician 
and the first great teacher of 
anatomy in Britain. Even 
Adam Smjth. Edmund Burke 
and Edward Gibbon went to 
bis lectures. His wide-ranging 
collections of specimens, coins 
and medals, and his fine 
library of books and manu- 
scripts. have enriched the Uni- 
versity of Glasgow, while his 
paintings form the nucleus of 
the Hunterian Art Gallery, one 
of the choicest of all university 
collections. 

Thanks are due to the doctor 
for the three magnificent paint- 
ings by the incomparably sub- 
tle Jean-Simeon Chardin: A 
Lady Taking Tea, The Cellar 
Boy and The Scullery Maid. 
But the real strength of the 
Hunterian focuses on the turn 
of this century, and the influ- 
ential Glasgow architect and 


designer Charles Rennie Mack- 
intosh and the American-born 
artist James McNeill Whistler. 

The windows and front door 
from the long-demolished 
Mackintosh House in Glasgow 
were incorporated into the 
facade of the new museum in 
1980. and its four principal 
interiors carefully recon- 
structed as Mackintosh origi- 
nally conceived them. Bequests 
of furniture and other applied 
arts, drawings and designs 
have made the museum the 
pre-eminent Mackintosh 
archive. 

The Whistler holding - the 
contents of his studio at his 
death - comprises some 80 oils, 
including 11 full-length por- 
traits. 120 pastels and several 
hundred prints and drawings. 
Its only rival is the Freer Gal- 
lery in Washington. 

Hunterian Art Gallery, 82 HiU- 
head Street, Glasgow 

Susan Moore 


Microchips on the Paris metro 


The Paris metro commuter rail 
network is testing an advanced 
ticketing system that uses a 
plastic card, embedded 
with a microchip, battery 
and tiny antenna, that need 
never leave your pocket or 
purse. 

The card - about the size of 
a credit card, though a little 
thicker - is being tested 
between the Chatelet stop in 
centred Paris and the suburb of 
Les Lilas, officials of the Paris 
Transport Authority said. 
It has been designed for 


use on 2,900k m of bus 
routes and the metro's full 
201km. 

The system is being devel- 
oped by Roland Moreno, the 
Paris-based inventor of 
France's electronic banking 
and public telephone systems, 
which rely on microchip- 
equipped cards. 

The current system, used by 
some 4.3m travellers dally, 
relies on paper tickets with 
magnetic strips. But that sys- 
tem is near its end and is 
plagued by fraud. 



Wo one is better than the 


British at sorting out chaos’ 


Perhaps, suggests Michael Thompson-Noel, it would be better if trains 
through Sir Alastair Morton’s tunnel were to run late - just at first 


T his ought to be a good 
week for Britain. But 
ought is a big word. 
Today, tickets go on 
sale for Britain’s first national 
lottery since 1826: a world-class 
tombola (the first draw is on 
Saturday) which is likely to 
gush geysers of cash for vari- 
ous good causes and to spread 
happiness throughout the land. 

And today, by coincidence, 
the first fore-paying passengers 
are due to step aboard 
high-speed Eurostar trains for 
the start of services linking 
Britain to continental Europe 
via the Channel TunneL 
Two grand projects. Fun and 
cheer for all A lottery which is 
expected to become one of the 
world’s biggest, and a macro- 
engineering coup that will 
anchor Britain a little more 
securely to its European neigh- 
bours at a time when Europe's 
centre of gravity is drifting 
eastward. __ 

Yet in Britain there is only 
tepid celebration. Instead, a fit 
of mockery is waiting to burst 
forth if either of these great 
projects fluffs tts debut. 

In theory, accidents or cock- 
ups are unlikely to afflict the 
lottery. Lotteries are easy to 
establish, simple to operate. 
You turn on the tap; out comes 
the money. But the Channel 
Tunnel represents state-of-the- 
art macro-construction at the 
tail-end of the 20th century - 
Complex, sophisticated ana a 
devourer, to date, of mountains 


uey. 

e approach to 

if commercial 
s has been sig- 

escalation of 
wbiugeing ~ 

jut safety: fur- 
if the financial 


irivate-sector 

1 designed. 


rnd gleeful 
abarrassing” 
suits. 

of this will 
off a duck’s 
ir Morton, 56. 

irotunnel and 
. mirriwi the 



weight of Eurotunnel contro- 
versies since 1987. 

He was bom in Johannes- 
burg. educated in South Africa 
and at Oxford University (law), 
and then joined De Beers, the 
diamond monopoly. After that 
his career included the World 
Bank, the British National Oil 
Corporation and financial 
group Guinness Peat 

Morton has always been 
renowned for his toughness 
and “frightening belligerence” 
~ qualities no doubt essential 
when dealing with govern- 
ments, banks, contractors and 
rail companies while breathing 
life into a project like the tun- 
nel but ones that do not reveal 
themselves across the lunch-ta- 
ble. He exudes forcefulness and 
confidence - not a man to 
interrupt - though he can be 
curiously softly-spoken, so that 
you have to lean forward. 

I met him at Luigi's, an Ital- 
ian restaurant he likes because 
he can walk there from his 
central London office. He was 
late. He apologised. I said it 


was not a problem; his secre- 
tary had rung the restaurant. 
He had been delayed, he 
explained, by the media. There 
had been a leak about some- 
thing In Paris which was caus- 
ing movement in the share 
price. “I had to calm things 
down." 

1 asked him whether he had 
had his fill of journalists. He 
smiled through bared teeth. 
"Yes," he said, "you could say I 
was pretty fed up with the 
press. Not that 1 take it person- 
ally. It's the tumel, of course. 
It's big and it’s assertive and it 
satisfies the need in Britain - 
in feet it’s an English thing - 
to mock, a need to express con- 
trariness. 

“It has always been that 
way. England's national motto 
is: ‘There'll be trouble if you do 
that'. The exception was North 
Sea oil, but that was because it 
involved American oilmen. The 
ability of Eurotunnel to make 
money has always been ques- 
tioned, but only by the City of 
London- 


■‘I have got used to the fact 
that adverse or negative news 
affecting Eurotunnel is seized 
upon, whereas what might 
prove to be good news - such 
as improved traffic forecasts - 
gets virtually no attention." 

I asked Morton what was 
special about the Channel Tun- 
nel that attracted this treat- 
ment. “Well.” he said, "first, 
it's a tunnel - not a bridge, 
which is glamorous, romantic 
and liberating. Second, it's a 
fixed link between England 
and the continent. Third, 
there’s its size. The feeling is 
that it's a big project that will 
come to no good. It has a few 
fans in Britain: businessmen, 
for example, who can see five 
years ahead, aud engineers. 
But the tunnel has to contend 
with a great deal of bias. 

“In France it's different. The 
French like their big projects, 
their rockets, the Airbus, their 
motorways, their grande vuessf 
tr ains and nuclear power. The 
difference is this: in France, 
the man in the street believes 


that as a result of big projects 
his grandchildren will lead a 
better life.” 

Did he regret taking on the 
tunnel? “No, 1 knew it would 
be large, complicated and 
organisational. 1 saw it as a 
major economic development 
that was very necessary. The 
great thing I didn't bargain for 
was a voyage through the 
English psyche." 

1 had read, I said, that histo- 
ry's grandest macro-engineer- 
ing projects, such as the pyra- 
mids. had always depended on 
absolute political support at 
the very top. Was that true of 
the tunnel? Would history see 
Margaret Thatcher and Fran- 
cois Mitterand as its heroes? 

“For Mitterand.” said Mor- 
ton. "the tunnel was a means 
to an end: the resurrection of 
derelict northern France. Con- 
versely. Mrs Thatcher said at 
the outset that the tunnel 
would be done by private 
enterprise or not at all - and 
after that said nothing," 

The Eurotunnel boss seems 
surprised - even now - at the 
frigidity of Britain's attitude 
towards the rest of Europe. 
“There is no sense 1 can detect 
of people in Britain saying that 
because they have joined 
Europe economically they 
should be doing things like the 
tunnel to integrate themselves 
more fully. Britain backs into 
the future grumbling and 
grudgingly. On the other hand, 
the genius of Britain is the 
way it copes with adverse 
circumstances. 

"The British are reactive, not 
creative, whereas the French 
plan. A French engineer will 
tell you that he cannot start 
work without a plan. But plans 
can fail. There is no one better 
than the British at sorting out 
the resultant chaos." 

On that basis, perhaps the 
best thing for the Channel 
Tunnel and for the national 
lottery would be a few spectac- 
ular cock-ups, preferably this 
week. There would be dancing 
in the streets - and then a 
brilliant British rescue. For all 
anyone knows, that may even 
he the plan. (See Leader page) 



Jardines recruits 
locally in Manila 

The Philippine branch of 
Jardine Matheson has a 
reputation as a training 
ground for future Taipans of 
the 132-year-old Hong Kong 
trading giant, writes Jose 
Galang. Alasdair Morrison, 
Jardine's current managing 
director, once worked there, as 
did his predecessor, Nigel Rich, 
who now runs Trafalgar 
House. Percy Weatherall, the 
boss of Hongkong Land, and 
Simon Michel, another senior 
Jardine figure, also learnt their 
trade in Jardine's Manila office 
on Buendia Avenue. 

Hence the surprise at the 
appointment of Aloysius Botja 
Colayco, 44, as head of Jardine 
Davies, the group's 
locally-quoted subsidiary. Not 
only is he the first Filipino to 
lead the group but he has been 
brought in from outside and 
given the job of chairman and 
chief executive. Although a 
few other foreign 
multinationals such as Shell 
and Galtex have had Filipino 
chief executives, it is a big 
departure for Jardines and 
suggests that it is intent on 
revitalising one of the sleepier 
parts of its for-flung trading 
empire. 

Colayco is not the most 
obvious candidate to run a 
business whose activities 
range from traditional sugar 
milling to merchant banking, 
insurance broking, 
construction materials, and 
hotel operations. Most of his 
career has been spent working 
in the international insurance 
industry. He was president of 
New York-based AIG 
Investment Corporation, which 
manages AIG’s investment 
portfolios in Europe, Asia, 

Latin America and other 
regions outside north America. 

However, Colayco is not a 
complete stranger. In 1980 he 
joined Jardine Davies as 
assistant treasurer and was 
transferred a year later to the 
group's head office in Hong 
Kong before moving to be chief 


investment officer of 
Philippine American Life 
Insurance, part of AIG. the US 
insurance giant. Jardine's 
decision to poach him back 
suggests that - in the unlikely 
event of Jardine choosing an 
Asian Taipan - Colayco would 
have to feature as a contender. 

Spielvogel’s 
third career 

Predictability is not Carl 
Spielvogel’s strong suit, writes 
Richard Tomkins. Three weeks 
ago he astonished Madison 
Avenue by quitting Bates 
Worldwide, the US advertising 
agency he co-founded. Now he 
has raised eyebrows still 
fhrther with the 
announcement that at the age 
of 65, be is starting a new 
career as a car dealer. 

With effect from last week. 
Spiel vogel has become 
chairman and chief executive 
of United Auto Group, a 
company set up in 1992 to buy 
and run auto dealerships 
around the US. According to 
one trade magazine, it is 
already the eighth largest auto 
dealership group in the US. 

The latest move launches 
Spielvogel into his third 
career. His first spanning 10 
years, was as a journalist with 
The New York Times, where 
he became the paper’s first 
advertising columnist. 

In 1960, he left the paper for 
the advertising industry, later 
setting np Backer & Spielvogel 
with Bill Backer in 1979. The 
company was eventually 
bought by Saatchi & Saatchi 
and merged with Ted Bates 
Worldwide, at which point 
Spiel vogel’s name dropped 
from the title. 

When Spielvogel (below) • 
resigned as chairman of Elates 
Worldwide last month, many 
thought It was in protest at 
interference in the company's 
business by the parent 
company’s British executives. 
But it now emerges that he 
was serious when he spoke of 
pursuing another career, 

Spielvogel says the switch is 



not as odd as it might look, 
“The automobile business has 
been short of marketing," he 
says. -Recently John Sin ale, 
the former head of Procter & 
Gamble, became chairman of 
General Motors, and yon 
wouldn’t exactly call him an 
automobile man; yet he is 
bringing contemporary 
marketing techniques to the 
automobile business. I intend 
to do the same." 

Two outsiders 
for Bell Canada 

Bell Canada is a rare breed 
among the regulated 
monopolies which have been 
plunged into free-for-all 
competition, writes Bernard 
Simon. Canada's biggest 
telephone company has met Its 
rivals head on. to the point 
where this race-bureaucratic 
behemoth is quickly gaining a 
reputation as an agile, 
forward-looking animal. 

The transformation is 
reflected in a recent 
management shake-up. Bell, 
which Is wholly-owned by 
BCE, the Montreal-based 
telecoms conglomerate, has 
reached outside tts own ranks 
to fill two top jobs. Ian 
McElroy, 44, takes over as chief 
executive of a new 
“competitive services" 
division, which will include 
sales to large customers and 
long-distance services, which 
were deregulated in 1992. 

For the past year, McElroy 
has been president of BCE 
Mobile Communications, 
which includes BCE’s cellular 
telephone interests. Most of his 
career before that was spent 
with IBM's Canadian 
subsidiary, where he rose to 
vice-president for system 
operations. 

John MacDonald, 41, 
previously chief executive of 
NBTel. New Brunswick’s 
telephone company, was 
named executive vice-president 
for business development and 
chief technology, officer, with 
responsibility for such areas as 
multimedia and advanced 
intelligent network services. 

MacDonald, whose business 
card includes his electronic 
mail and Internet sign-ons, has 
helped turn NBTel into one of 
North America's most inno- 
vative telephone companies. 

Announcing the latest 
appointments, John 
McLennan, Bell’s chief 
executive, reiterated that 
"anyone who wants to take our 
customers away from ns is in 
for the fight of their lives. 

We’re not going to concede 
anything to anyone." 







10 




FINANCIAL TIMES MONDAY NOVEMBER 



It’s advertising, 


Jim - but not 


as we know it 


How juicy will new media opportunities be for 
ad agencies? Michael Thompson-Noel finds out 


W hat will adver- 
tising look 
like in the dig- 
ital. video, 
interactive, 
online, multimedia superfu- 
ture? Will it differ greatly from 
the steam-age advertising in 
preseat-day media: newspa- 
pers, magazines, television, 
radio, cinema and posters? 
How juicy will it be? 

Try this: 

We are watching the Olym- 
pic Games of 2004. The picture 
fades. Up comes a message. 
View our commercial and we'll 
give you a Kentucky Fried 
Chicken Family Feast at half 
price every Friday night for a 
month, it says. (Advertisers 
have to he polite in 2004 
because there is a gadget on 
our PC-TV that zaps into obliv- 
ion any rude or junk messages 
we do not wish to see). 

We are hungry. So we push 
the OK button on our PC-TV 
and view the commercial. 
Somewhere far away. KFC's 
computer smoothes into 
action. On to our screen comes 
a picture of Any the Aroma, 
holding a plate of chicken and 
fries. Next, we see footage of 
Any wafting along our street. 
Up to our very bouse. His fin- 
ger on our doorbell. A most 
seductive fellow. “Hi. Mike.” 
he says. (The computer is all- 
knowing). Tow appreciate bet- 
ter than anyone in your street 
that KFC’s the greatest taste 
there is. What can I offer you 
tonight?" 

In this scenario we have 
invited an advertiser to talk, to 
us. He is enjoying a one-to-one 
relationship with us. some- 
thing on which advertisers in 
the superfuture will set tre- 
mendous store. For companies 
of all kinds, it could mean life 
or death. 

Tins trip to the Olympics of 
2004 was conjured up recently 
by Patrick Collister, executive 
creative director at the Ogilvy 


& Mather advertising agency 
in London, for an O&M confer- 
ence about "new” media. 

It illustrates how senior cre- 
ative people in ad agencies are 
anticipating the superfuture. 
According to Collister “Brand 
values are going to be increas- 
ingly important as we journey 
down the superhighway. And 
in supporting those brands, 
creativity will be increasingly 
at a premium." 

Until now, he says, advertis- 
ers and their audiences have 
had a straightforward relation- 
ship. If you watch my commer- 
cials. says an advertiser. I will 
pay for your TV programmes. 
But this relationship is about 
to change. Advertisers are 
establishing what they call a 
dialogue with consumers. 
Instead of soliciting responses, 
they may well find themselves 
responding to solicitations. 

This is called collaborative 
advertising. And various 
things may happen. Advertis- 
ers who irritate their custom- 
ers with witless and aggressive 
messages may find themselves 
expunged - booted out of the 
borne. Conversely, advertising 
tha t is friendly and en g a ging 
and which espouses relevant 
brand values will be worth its 
weight in diamonds. 

Collister's imaginative jour- 
ney to the 2004 Olympics is not 
far-fetched. Yet the most inter- 
esting feature of the way the 
advertising business is prepar- 
ing for the superiuture is not 
the baldness of its conference- 
going seers, but its caution and 
its caginess. It is not lathering 
itself to bits but sitting rela- 
tively still and spending little 
money. It is waiting and it is 
watching, like a fat spider in a 
softly shimmering web. 

There are reasons for this 
watchfulness. First, people in 
advertising agencies are spe- 
cialists in communications. 
They know a lot about media 
evolution. 


Second, they know that the 
superiuture will not be tech- 
nology-led but consumer- led. 
So they are not. primarily, 
watching the technology. They 
are watching the consumer, 
monitoring his likes and dis- 
likes. And consumers, at least 
in Britain, are at present “mas- 
sively luke-warm” on new 
media, in the words of Rhona 
Tridgell, client service director 
at O&M. Many adults are tech- 
nophobic. They don't want 
technologies to converge. They 
want them held apart. "Con- 
sumers will only take a real 
interest in new media." says 
Tridgell. “when It is useful. 

affordable, user-friendly and 
time-saving." 

Third, they are experts in 
hype. They produce It and they 
can spot it. This means they 
can attempt to identify which 
technology and media compa- 
nies are trying to position 
themselves in the marketplace 
with an over-use of chutzpah. 

Fourth, advertising in the 
steam-age media is booming. In 
Britain, advertising expendi- 
ture this year is expected to 
top £10bn - in real terms, an 
8.4 per cent gain on 1983. with 
further sharp growth expected 
next year. All main media sec- 
tors are sharing the boom. 
With so much steam-age reve- 
nue about, agencies are battl- 
ing to boost their share. Their 
caginess towards the superfu- 
ture is easily understandable. 



-v *-.■ . 


- r- SJfi’- 


•'r 


v .-r. 


By Alice Hawsthom : 


When AT&T sent 

on tothe streets^ MaaWan • 

to ask people whaf they.' :■ 
thou ght of 1 thfratS onidjotf -TT •. 
superhighway; one 
-What's thatr Anbtherezdd? . 
“Is it a- toE mad?" A thkAK 
thought it was. like *ra»o£> T - . 


message is passed o n and <m 
until it ail gets screwed up." 
AT&T, one of the world's r 


B ut things are 
starting to stir. At 
Saatchi & Saatchi, 
Britain's biggest 
agency, Moray 
MacLennan. joint managing 
director, has set up a group to 
study the media future. 

“This task force will com- 
prise three or four top people 
from each of our 25 European 
offices.'’ says MacLennan. 
“Typically they will be: the 
media director, a technology 


expert, a creative brain and a 
strategic planner. Their job 
will be to educate, investigate 
- and recommend action. We 
want them to start making 
things happen for our clients. 

“In our view the superhigh- 
way. in all its predicted glory, 
is quite a long way away in 
terms of how' it will affect our 
clients. But as new media 
develop, we want to be on top 
of them. Will they be different 
in kind to existing medi3. or 
will they require an adaptation 
of existing advertising tech- 
niques? The latter is the view 
we have settled on. 

“What will consumers do 
with the new media? We want 
to understand what consumers 
want and how much they'll 
pay. Do they want interactivity 
more than straight choice? We 
believe there will not be a 
replacement for mass-market 
TV. It’s a bit like saying that 
photography was going to be 
the death of painting, or TV 
the death of cinema. 

“Yet agencies will have to 
adapt from being a cottage 
industry to a high-tech one. So 
far. technology has not been 
central to agencies’ business. 
In future they'll have to be 
very* careful not to be left 
behind.” 


What will become much 
harder, says MacLennan. is the 
job of media planning. Media 
specialists, who plan advertis- 
ing campaigns and book the 
space and time, will have to 
become highly creative plan- 
ners in the fragmented super- 
future. rather than just schedu- 
lers. 

This is echoed, naturally, by 
Mark Craze, chief executive at 
TMD Carat. Britain’s second 
largest media-buying firm. 
This year he expects to buy 
£900m worth of advertising 
space and time on behalf of 
clients that include Abbey 
National. Cadbury, Nissan and 
American Express. 

He says that companies like 
his have already coped with 
“massive change and growth" 
in the steam-age media. Since 
1980, UK advertising outlets 
have grown in all directions. In 
addition to terrestrial TV', 
there are now 25 English- 
speaking eableisatellite TV 
channels. In the same period 
the number of local radio sta- 
tions (there are three national 
ones) has grown from 27 to 140; 
newspapers, from 1,583 to 1.957; 
consumer magazines. 1^527 to 
2.429: business and professional 
publications, 2.629 to 5,377: and 
cinema screens. 1,576 to 1.895. 


Recently. TMD Carat hired 
Blackett Ditchbum, formerly 
corporate communications 
manager at Prudential Corpo- 
ration. to study new-media 
opportunities. “As media have 
become more interesting and 
complex,” says Craze, “so cli- 
ents have shown increasing 
interest in the media ride. And 
there has been greater fusion 
of marketing s kills . Blackett’s 
appointment is meant to insure 
that we are forward-looking. At 
present, consumers are fairly 
passive. That will change, 
though we are probably 
talking five years-plus. We 
need to be ahead of our clients, 
to make sure we have the 
answers to their questions 
when they pose them. We have 
to be prepared.” 

A man who is really ahead is 
Daniel Bobroff, a 29-year-old 
former big-agency employee 
who In mid-1990 hocked all his 
assets, lived on a shoestring 
and ran up an u nofficial £2,000 
bank overdraft so as to found 
Microtime Media. Bobroff says 
his company pioneered interac- 
tive advertising in Britain, and 
that it is at the forefront of 
new-media brand promotion. 
He says be has produced more 
than 70 pieces of interactive 
advertising for clients such as 


Coca-Cola, Pepsi-Co, adidas 
and Midland Bank, and that 
this year he will hantflp 
worth of clients' expenditure - 
not bad. but tiny by big-agency 
standards. 


M uch of Bob- 
roffs work 
has involved 
placing com- 
mercial mes- 
sages within the running time 
of educational and leisure soft-: 
ware, especially video-games, a 
dutch of which have reached 
No 1 in the UK computer 
games charts. “Finding the 
right software titles is essen- 
tial,” he says. “They have to be 
right for the brand and for the 

marketing brief.” 

Bobroff. a smooth talker, was 
given his first computer at the 
age of nine or 10. K is possible 
that be is doing nothing that a 
hot-shot steam-age agency 
couldn't do by Monday week tf 
it threw a few thousand 
pounds at it and diverted some 
key staff from the daily grind. 

On the other hand, Bobroff 
may have slipped the pack and 
launched himself into the 
superiuture. He can count on 
one thing: people in steam-age 
advertising agencies are watch- 
ing his every twitch. 


Financial Times. 
Europe's Business Newspaper, 


Europe ‘heads for crisis’ 


By Alan Cane 





Europe’s telecommunications 
companies are heading for a 
productivity crisis which will 
I hamper their efforts to 
compete effectively in 
tomorrow's information 
society, according to a leading 
US-based technology expert. 

Eric Benhamou. who chairs 
the American Electronics 
Association’s national 
information infrastructure 
task-force which is assessing 
the implications of multimedia 
and the information 
superhighway, said that 
Europe lagged behind not only 
the US but even developing 
economies like China in its 
approach to the information 
society. 

He warned that Europe’s 
telecommunications costs were 
too high and the productivity 
of its workers too low - 
leading to a vicious cycle 
which was hurting the 
competitiveness of European 
companies and reducing their 


ability to grow and create jobs. 

Benhamou. chief executive 
of the US networking company 
3Com, was speaking at an AEA 
meeting in Brussels last week. 
Complaining that European 
telecoms costs are still two to 
three times higher than in the 
US. he warned that Europe 
must cut prices to stimulate 
market growth and create a 
virtuous cycle where industrial 
productivity would lead to new 
jobs and industries. He said 
Europe had to match or 
undercut US prices 
Immediately and in one drastic 
move, or risk “death by 1,000 
cuts". 

He said regulations requiring 
manufacturers of 
telecommunications equipment 
to gain approval for their 
products in each European 
country were “regulatory 
sabotage", arguing that one 
country should have the 
authority to approve 
telecommunications equipment 
through the EU. 

By comparison. China had a 


pragmatic approach to building 
its information infrastructure. 
It was developing four major 
“golden projects” - networks 
covering public economic 
information, national foreign 
trade, national finance and the 
value-added tax management 
system. “These projects will 
interconnect 30-40 provincial 
capitals and about 500 cities to 
create an information 
superstructure for China's 
government and industry. 

Their efforts in education 
alone will add 20m nodes to the 
Internet to enable work in 
research and education.'* 

In the US. surveys indicated 
that support for building a 
national information 
infrastructure was based on a 
belief that it would benefit 
business efficiency first, 
followed by business 
competitiveness. 

Entertainment came well down 
the list despite the media 
concentration on 
video-on -demand and computer 
games. 


companies, is anxioufrto 
discover how the public wS 
. react to the new services if win 

- be able to deUverbecause of 

the convergence of its telecoms 
business with the information - ■ 
technology and entetahnnent " 
industries. One of its top - ' 

priorities is thedevelopmentof 
abinteractivetelevisicm--.' 
service. AT&TlS now hi the 
throes of a tong-tean researdi -i 
project to find out what the;.; 
public wants from interactive 
TV. The results sofarhase77 ’ 
disproved almost afiitsv > 

. original assumptions. ■ 

“Our initial research tedd-ift 
that people would -use > 

- m terac tiv eTVaa a source df : 
information and thatit was -7 : 
something they would usees - 
their own, tike a personal 
computer rather than a TV,"" ■ ' 
Vincent Grosso, directnr^ - < r 
interactive service aFAT&T; “■ 
told a conference organised 
last week by fee NrtSeriands v 
Design Institute in . . ■" i’ • 
Amsterdam. 

*TVe were lookingfrr the : '-k. 
‘killer' application - the one : . . . 
thing which was so powerfid;- >. 
that it would make people;;; ;■ 
really want to have- interactive 
TV in their homes." . . . 

Yet when AT&T began its 7 
research two years ago by 
running a nine-month trial-ln . 
the homes of 50 employees In . : 
the Chicago area, it dtscoyeredl 
that the most popular channels 
delivered entertainment/hot'- 
information. The trial also : - 
revealed that people preferdff 
to use interactive TV asa- - 
communal activity - with the 
family playing an fcteradttfe • 
game, for instance - just as "■ 

- theydo with traditional TV?! : 

"We realised that we s ' 

shouldn't have been looking * 
fin a killer application but for 
killer attributes," said Grosso. 
"The service worked best when 
all the attributes - 
information, entertainment, - 
c ommunication and 
transactions - were ■ • 
integrated.” 

And the service had to be 
easy to use. At the end. AT&T 
found that the instruction 
books were still in their 
shrink-wrapped covers In 411 
per cent of homes. In half 
those homes, people said their 
children had taught than how 
to use tile service. The rest had 
muddled through. 

AT&T is now finalising plans 
for two more trials which will 
start next year. 

These trials will be bigger 
and more sophisticated than 
the Chicago pilot However, 
Grosso is convinced that AT&T 
learnt some valuable pointers 
from that project 
“One of the most important 
lessons was to check 
everything the participants 
told us. We'd listen to people 
talking about how they had 
used the service for news and 
information. But their records m 
showed that they'd spent most 
of their time playing games.” 


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ARC H I T E CT IT HE 


The picture at Bankside 



Colin Amery looks at short-list contenders for the Tate 


conversion 


T here is a week to go 
before the announce- 
ment of tbe short list 
or architects from 
1 which wifi be chosen the 
i designer for the conversion of 
Bankside power station, near 
London’s Southwark Bridge, 
into the Tate Gallery of Mod- 
ern Art. This is an important 
international competition - 
one that will have a profound 
effect on the style of public 
museums and galleries in the 
future. 

So far the competition has 
been an extraordinary affair - 
a mixture of good Intentions 
and inevitable confusion. It 
was a brave idea to open the 
competition to architects from 
around the world. Contempo- 
rary architecture is mi interna- 
tional activity, as is the build- 
ing of new museums, but it is 
unusual for competitions to be 
so open and all-embracing. 

When a selection committee 
opens a competition to all-com- 
ers it is usually in the hope 
that they will be able to spot a 
new discovery, an untried tal- 
ent, a genius who will change 
the contours on the architec- 
tural map. This is exactly how 
the original architect of Bank- 


Your money. 


: 3£Sa«SK:, -2 


side power station. Sir Giles 
Gilbert Scott, was discovered. 

He achieved sudden and 
early fame by winning the 
competition Cor Liverpool's 
Anglican cathedral in 1904, 
when he was only 24. He was 
to go on to create Battersea 
power station in 1932, which 
became the model for so many 
brick giants all over England.- 
By tbe time he was consultant 
architect for Bankside he was 
dose to death, and died in 1960 
- just before Bankside opened. 

The symmetry of Bankside is 
striking, with its 325 ft- high 
central chimney (the station 
was designed to bum oil. not 
coke) and its immaculate 
brickwork. Inside, the great 
spaces are a challenge to any 
architect, and they are clearly 
going to be expensive to con- 
vert and even more expensive 
to maintain. 

The competition attracted 
148 architects. Applicants for 
the first stage were examined 
only on the evidence of a few 
slides and a brief written sub- 
mission. Because an open com- 
petition is so random, many of 
these early entrants had little 
or no museum experience. It 
has to be remembered that 


many of the best architects in 
the world are reluctant to 
enter such wild competitions. 

Tbe finest architect in 
Britain. Sir Norman Foster, for 
example, is not even being con- 
sidered for Bankside. Many 
architects - I suspect Sir Nor- 
man is among them - will feel 
as I do that it is sad that the 
first major building in Britain 
devoted to the art of the 20th 
and 2lst centuries should be a 
conversion of a large, but not 
that distinguished, redundant 
industrial building. 

The 13 architects on the long 
short list have presented a 
mixture of predictable and 
imaginative schemes. Michael 
Hopkins’ ideas look the most 
straight-forward, while the 
work of the firm of Future 
Systems has been marvellously 
presented and has immense 

character. 

Nicholas Grimshaw, the 
architect of the nearby Chan- 
nel Tunnel terminal at Water- 
loo. has brought the railway 
aesthetic into the world of the 
art gallery. 

Tbe two Japanese firms both 
deserve to be on the list. Arata 
Isosaki and Associates have 
plenty of museum experience. 


while Tadao Ando, the current 
favourite to win. has produced 
some strangely moving and 
elemental buildings in Japan 
that are works of art. His Japa- 
nese pavilion for the Seville 
Expo '92 was a model of 
respect for the essence of tradi- 
tional b uilding 

The assessors, chaired by Sir 
Simon Hornby, are a diverse 
group- They include the broad- 
caster Joan Bake well as well 
as two architects who are poles 
apart in their stylistic sympa- 
thies: Sir Philip Powell, a good 
if almost old-fashioned modern- 
ist from the firm of Powell and 
Moya, and Hans HoUein from 
Vienna, who is a glitzy post- 
modernist and designer of the 
museum at Monchengladbach 
in Germany. 

Whatever the outcome of 
this competition, it is impor- 
tant to remember that it is a 
major architectural and cul- 
tural event The removal of the 
“modem art" from the other 
great collections at the Tate, 
further along the Thames, is 
controversial in itself. How 
successfully this is done 
depends greatly on the right 
choice of architect for the new 
galleries. 


Arts 
uidf 


; '"utijN 






m ht '• r- " 








o* 









FINANCIAL times MONDAY NOVEMBER 14 1 994 


fWVORK 

. 71® first major . 

™ Amaricart 

exhibition 

devoted to the / 

'British potters / 

^** 3 ^ 6 ( 8 . 1902 )' ■/. 
fT-i and, Hans Coper * h 
, (!92(vat)te being, 

T . held at the 
MertropoStan 

Museum in New;;: 

York from 
tomorrow. RJe’s 
refined, mintmatet 
■ vessels and the 
sculptural '• 

■■ ceramic forms 
. Wt)«f Coper, 
am among the 
most innovative 
wid influential tf 
the century. 




Peter Aspden reports on the modem marketing of ancient songs and Antony Thorncroft on serious music, second-hand 


Sex and drugs . . . and 



Them - the original sleeve for file ID-year-old recording 

T o the sophisticated con- advertising campaign devised to 
notes eur of classical promote the product And it is little 
music, Carl Orffs Car- more than an act of promotion: 
mma Burana is a stir- there is no new recording to push 
ring, if slightly exces- (the version chosen by Decca is 10 
sive, paean to the rantings of a years old), no big-name artist to 
group of 13th century Bavarian splash across the cover, no mention, 
monks who probably spent too even, of the composer, 
much time with only their fevered Instead, we have loud music, 
imaginations to keep them writhing bodies and a semi-naked 
company. 7b the less refined lis- girl gyrating In ecstasy before a 
toner it means only one thing - hysterical audience. For keen fol- 
after-sbave. . - lowers of post-modern semiotic the- 

Tha memorable advertising cam- 
pal^ by Old Sopice in the 1970s used 
Orffs opening to the work, K 0 For- 
tuna”, to evoke in a tow expensive 
seconds of air-time the atmosphere 
of passion, danger and excitement 
which no self respecting, iron-pump- 
ing macho man could resist 
The ad became a classic. It was 
satirised by the hapless duo of the 
Carling Black Label series, while 
Orffs exultant piece, composed in 
the 1930s, continued to be plundered 
by the scavengers of popular cul- 
ture: it was used in the score of 
John Boorman's ExcaUbur, formed 
the basis of Damian's theme in The 
Omen trilogy and. more recently,, 
wanned up the pubescent audiences 
writing to . see Michael Jackson per- 
form during his Dangerous tour. 

Now a record company has taken 
the dassics-to-pop journey to its 
logical condusioa' Decca is packag- 
ing and promoting the Carmina 
Burana in exactly the same way it 
would treat a high-protile pop 
album. Although certain classical 
musicians - -Luciano Pavarotti. 

Nigel Kennedy - have achieved pop 
status and sales figures, and 
t hemed compilations have made a 
certain im part on the market, this 
is claimed to be the first time a 
single piece of classical music is 
1 yang made to take the strain all on 
its own. 

From thi« week, British television 
viewers will be treated. to tlm tew 


ory in practice, there is even, in the sleeves from the past have had simi- 
opening seconds, the wave from the lar themes, of nakedness and pagan 
Old Spice advertisement “We felt it celebrations, but they just happen 
was vital to establish that Zink,” to have been paintings.” Just in 
says Paul Moseley, bead of market- case the point is missed, the album 
tog of Decca UK. promotion even has a slogan; 

He says market research showed “Music for your basic instincts'', 
that, when played the piece of The Decca campaign is costing 
music, nearly everyone recognised the company around £500,000, for 
it but only 20-25 per cent of the which it expects an entry into the 
sample knew what it was. “Because pop charts. The revamped Carmina 

of the familiarity from the Old Spice Burana will have to sell six-figure 
ad, the Carmina Burana has always numbers to achieve that, which in 
been a best-seller, but there are these days would be no mean feat 
more than 100 versions around and for an old recording of a classical 
sales have been dispersed." piece. “After the boom years of 1990 

Now the company is hoping to tap and 1991, when we had the Three 
that familiarity and persuade its Tenors, Nigel Kennedy and Pavar- 
target audience - mostly male (that otti, thing s have fallen off some- 
Old Spice connection again) 3040 what. It is more difficult to sell 
year-olds whose resistance to ask- more than 100,000 copies of a class- 
ing for funny foreign names in a cal album now," says Moseley. 

record slum is breaking down all 

the time. f T ^ he release of Orffs most 

Moseley bridles when asked if his I famous work is not 

campaign is not vulgarising dassi- I entirely an exercise in 

cal music by its use of sex as a I cynical marketing; “O 

selling point “It is ail there already, * Fortuna” is already used 

we are not adding anything. The regularly in dance clubs to get 
Carmina Burana are all about sex, things going, much as New Age and 
drinking, gambling and death." He ambient music is used at chill-out 
quotes cheerfully from one of the time. There are few pieces of music 
songs: "This is the Joyful Time": better-suited to the Ecstasy-induced 
“My virginity makes me frisky, my adrenalin rush of a rave moving 
simplicity holds me back OhI Oh! into top gear than the Carmina 
Oh!”. It was not all purity and piety Burana' s trium phan t opening. Prev- 
in the medieval monasteries, after ing, perhaps, that it is young 
ah. music listeners who care the least 

Of the album's sleeve, which about traditional categories in the 
shows the girl from the advertise- first place and that the record com- 
ment posing in front of a baying paries are finally following in their 
rock crowd, he Bays: “Many of the wake. 



Now - the new rave coyer for Carmina Burana and the TV campaign story-board, aimed at the youth market 


popular classics 


executive, John Spearman, says 
“Mozart is not an English word”. 


T he nation tikes its classical 
anisic, bat at second hand. 
Research suggests that 
almost 30 per cent of the 
adult population win admit to an 
interest in classical music bat only 
about 1.4m, or 5 per cent, actually 
bother to go to orchestral concerts 
two or more times a year. 

The majority prefers to get its fix 
at home. The obvious alternative to 
concert going is listening to record- 
ings, and, after a worrying dip, 
sales of classical CDs and tapes are 
expected to reach 14m fids year, 
approaching the “Three Tenors- 
World Cup" crescendo erf 16.7m in 
1990. This is, however, still only 7 
per cent of all album sales. 

ft is two alternative sources of 
classical music that have caused 
file biggest waves - classical radio 
stations and the proliferation of 
classical music magazines. While 
fiie audience for orchestral concerts 
at the Royal Festival Hall has 
fallen by 20 per cent in two 
decades, to around 60 per cent of 
capacity, and or chestras around the 
conn try face rising deficits, Classic 
FM and the BBC Music Magazine 
have chalked up considerable com- 
mercial success. 

By coincidence both were 
launched in September 1992, and 
both are already the world leaders 
in their fields. Indeed Classic FM, 
with almost 5m listeners weekly, 
may have the largest audience of 
any commercial station playing 
any type of music. The BBC Music 
Magazine is already in profit; Clas- 
sic FM in the UK experts to be in 
the blade very shortly. 

Their success has come from 


quickly moving a successful domes- 
tic formula abroad.. Even before its 
first issue appeared the publishing 
director of BBC Music Magazine 
received an approach from Warner 
Music, the direct marketing arm of 
Thxre-Wamer, which wanted to dls- 
tribnte the magazine in the VS. 
Today the Music Magazine sells 
around 65,000 copies in the UK; 
20,000 in a new German edition; 
and over 200,000 in the US. 

By coincidence last month Clas- 
sic FM signed a deal with Sony- 
Warner. a venture between Time- 
Warser and Sony, which win mar- 
ket its programmes across the US, 
guaranteeing the station a lump 
sum and a percentage of the sales. 
Classic FM already owns, or has an 
interest in, classical music stations 
in Holland, Finland an d Sweden. 

T here is an intriguing para- 
dox in the success of the 
Mu pwiiw and Classic FML 
BBC Music Magazine sells 
well, especially overseas, at least 
partly on the blessed reputation of 
the BBC. 7et apart from carrying 
Radio 3 listings (and those of Clas- 
sic FM) it receives few, if any, 
plugs from the airwaves of its 
broadcasting parent 
In contrast Classic FM is quite at 
liberty to promote any of its grow- 
ing number of subsidiary activities, 
such as its summer music festival; 
its Classic FM CDs, which have 
shot up the classical music charts - 
and, next year, its own magazine. 

What they share is the inestima- 
ble advantage of the Thqflteh lan- 
guage, married to the universality 
of music. As Classic FM*s chief 


They are also well packaged brands 
which appeal to the advertisers' 
delight, an elusive ABC1 audience, 
while avoiding any elitist preten- 
sions. 

Spearman does not expect the 
launch of the Classic FM magazine 
to greatly affect sales of the other 
specialist music journals. It is 
aimed at a wider, life-style market, 
and will cover travel and food as 
lavishly as music. And it will not 
cany file monthly free CD attached 
to its cover, which has done so 
much to boost sales of the BBC 
Music Ma gazine and Classic CD. 

To add another twist. Classic CD 
has just been acquired by Pearson, 
publishers of the FT, which should 
improve its prospects. And with 
The Gramophone still going strong, 
the jostling field of classical music 
magazines is performing surpris- 
ingly well. The same is true of 
BBC's Radio 3. It has. if anything, 
gained from the competition from 
Classic FM, losing some of its 
remoteness, but none of its 2.5m 
weekly listeners. 

So while many members of the 
nation’s leading symphony orches- 
tras face yet another year without 
a pay rise, and a fixture which may 
well see the rod of at least one 
orchestra, the parasites who live 
off the creative talent of musicians 
prosper. This is the way the world 
is going as the media increasingly 
acts as the selective retailer of cul- 
ture. At least both Classic FM and 
the BBC Music Magazine take their 
responsibilities towards their art 
form seriously. 


Multiplied pianos 

David Murray attunes to a strong commercial pitch 


Why should six pianists want to 
play six grand pianos all at once? 
Possible answer: because doing 
that, in the current musical climate, 
might be a rice little earner. It has 
novelty value on a grand scale (but 
portable, just, with friendly help 
from Steinways), and promises the 
kind of noisy excitement that early 
rock’n’roll - remember the ham- 
mered piano-triplets that used to go 
on through every song? - shared 
with the popular minimalis m of 
Steve Reich and Philip Glass in the 
1950s and '60s. 

But is there any six-piano reper- 
toire? Well, for a start there is 
Reich's Musk for Six Pianos , and in 
fact that was where Piano Circus 
started. Having come together to 
perform it, they found the experi- 
ence rewarding both in personal 
satisfaction and in audience-re- 
sponse. Soon they were commis- 
sioning new works for their sextet, 
and adaptations for 52S piano-keys 
of other recent music, and they 
have expanded naturally into added 


electronics. Their preferred compos- 
ers are interested in what a team of 
pianos can achieve best not subtle 
nuances or timbrel contrasts, but 
tingling articulacy, contrapuntal 
elaboration and rhythmic acuity, in 
or out of phase as composers dic- 
tate. 

Last week they displayed their 
range in four well-planned concerts 
at The Place, along with the results 
of some “dance- workshops” with 
Kingsway College. The Place - pri- 
marily a dance-venue - proved to 
he an ideal place for Piano Circus 
too. Big enough to let the giant 
rosette of pianos look impressive 
(slick lighting by Jo Joelson: they 
go in for pop-style efforts, like the 
Kronas Quartet), airy enough for 
their fullest sound without cramp- 
ing it nor letting it become oppres- 
sive or strident; but not so big as to 
reduce the individual players to 
faceless me chanics . 

In these happy circumstances 
they sounded very good indeed. 
Their collective address is vital and 


alert Each plays up to and with the 
others, and nobody lacks his or her 
own dramatic instinct. (Their 
make-up is of course PC, three of 
each sex - though I fancied that 
their roles were sometimes assigned 
on grounds of gender and physical 
strength.) 

The concert I heard comprised 
Louis Andriessen’s De Stoat (“The 
Republic”, after Plato), adapted 
from a score that deploys a far 
greater variety of instruments, and 
Graham Pitkin’s purpose-written 
triptych Loud. Line and Log. In 
Andriessen, energy and rhetoric 
had to do duty for the original col- 
our-contrasts, but at the hands of 
these players they really did. The 
Pitkin pieces, which keep a friendly 
toe-bold in jazz and sophisticated 
pop, exploit the unique medium in 
any number of ways, intricately and 
with lush resource. “Conservative” 
they may be, by austere modernist 
standards; but the keen invention, 
would grab any honest musical ear, 
and Piano Circus revelled in it 



BERLIN 


OPERA/DANCE 

Deutsche Oper The first of two 


jtmas cymes 01 
jns with Das Rhringold on 
i Die WaikQre on Sun. Horst 
nducts a cast including 
late and Hadegard Behrens. 

reduction of Poulenc’s 

s des Ganm6lites, staged by 
tamer and conducted by 

- -* ■ — * -=-»*» can 


again on Nov 17, 23, 25,29 
ifwftfi cast headed by Rita 

an Armstrong, Alexandra 

Vtejh and Lucy Peacock. 

/ also includes Die 
to and a 'programme of 
aphies by Hans van Manen 

««rt»cdenU>*nTte 

nboiin-Kuplwprod^ 

sd can be seen on Wed 
nth cast headed by 


ham Gaik and 

Repertory also 

re di Shriglia and 


CONCERTS 

Phflharmonie Tonight Kart Leister, 
former principal clarinet of the Berlin 
Philharmonic Orchestra, hosts mi 
evening entitled The Clarinet and 
Poetry. Tomorrow: Orchestra de 
Paris in works by Ravel and Mahler, 
with piano soloist Hrtdne Grimaud. 
Wed: Bruno Leonardo Grtber plays 
piano sonatas by Beethoven and 
UszL Thurs, Fri: Claudio Abbado 
conducts Beriirr Phi/harmonic 
Orchestra in Brahms’ Second Piano 
Concerto (Daniel Barenboim) and 
Beethoven’s Bghth Symphony. Sun. 
next More Gunter Wand conducts 
Berlin Radio Symphony Orchestra in 
Mozart ami Brahms. Sun, next Wed 
(Kammermusiksaai): Roger 
Norrington conducts Chamber 
Orchestra of Europe in Weber, 
Stravinsky and Mensefesohn (2548 
8132) 

Srtmuspfrihaus Tomorrow: Brahms’ 
German Requiem, with soloists Inga 
Nfeteen and Alan Titus. Wed: Bach’s 
B minor Mass. Thurs: Georges 
Pritre conducts ECYO in works by 
Brahms and RaveL Fri, Sat, Sun: 
Michael Schoenwandt conducts 
Berfin Symphony Orchestra in 
Britten and Strauss. Next Mon: 

GMini conducts Vienna Philharmonic 
(2090 2156) 

JAZZ 

The Berlin Jazz Festival runs from 
Wad till Sim at Haus der Kutturen 
der Weft. The opening night features 
Bvfn Jones Jazz Machine and 
George Gruntz Concert Jazz Band, 
followed on Thurs.by an Af rican 
night (2548 9254) 


■ NEW YORK 

THEATRE 

• Sunset Boulevard: the Andrew 


Uoyd Webber musical has finally 
reached Broadway. Glenn Close is 
Norma Desmond, and Trevor Nunn 
directs. Final previews tomorrow and 
Wed, opens on Thurs (Minskoff, 200 
West 45th St, 869 0550) 

• Show Boat Harold Prince's new 
production of the 1927 Jerome 
Kem/Oscar Hammerstein musical is 
the first show on Broadway to cost 
$75 a ticket fri her FT review, Karen 
Fnckar sad that despite its musical 
excellence, the production was 
emotionally empty (Gershwin, 51st 
St west of Broadway, 307 4100) 

• Hap good: the New York 
premiere of Tom Stoppard's play 
about the head of a British 
government agency who becomes 
entangled in a web of intrigue. Jack 
O'Brien directs a cast headed by 
Stockard Charming. Now in 
previews, opens Dec 4 (Mltzi E. 
Newhouse, Lincoln Center, 239 
6200) 

• Angels in America: Tony 
Kushneris two-part epic conjures a 
vision of America at the edge of 
disaster. Catch it now before its 
expected closure at year-end (Walter 
Kerr, 219 West 48th St, 239 6200) 

• Uncommon Women And Others: 
a revival of Wendy Wasserstein's 
play about friends at a small New 
England women's college, who meet 
for tea and then for a reunion six 
years later (Lucille Lortel, 121 
Christopher St 239 6200) 

• Three Tafl Women: a poetic play 
by Edward Aibee, dominated by the 
heroic performance of Myra Carter. 
She. Jordan Baker and Marian 
Seldes represent three generations 
of women trying to sort out their 
pasts (Promenade, 2162 Broadway 
at 76th St, 239 6200) 

• An Inspector Calls: J.B. 


Priestley's 1945 mystery thriller in a 
stunning re-interpretation by 
Stephen Daldry, first seen at 
Britain's National Theatre (RoyaJe, 
242 West 45th St, 239 620p) 

• Love! Valour! Compassion!: 
eight men gather at an idyllic 
country home over the course of 
three holiday weekends, in the latest 
play by Terrence McNally 
(Manhattan Theatre Club, 131 West 
55th St. 581 1212) 

A Jelly Rolll Verne! Bagneris stars 
in a musical show about jazz legend 
Jelly Roll Morton (47th Street 
Theatre, 304 West 47th St. 265 
1086) 

OPERA 

Metropolitan Opera A new 
production of Shostakovich's Lady 
Macbeth of Mtsensk, conducted by 
James Conlon and staged by 
Graham Vick, can be seen tonight 
and Fri with Maria Ewing in the title 
role. This week’s repertory also 
features Cav and Pag tomorrow and 
Sat with Vladimir Atiantov as Cariio, 
Rigotetto on Wed and Sat afternoon 
with Paolo Gavaneili, Ramon Vargas 
and Sumi Jo, and Don Giovanni on 
Thurs with James Morris, Bryn Terfel 
and Card Vaness (362 6000) 

State Theater The final week of 
New York City Opera's autumn 
season Is devoted to a new 
production of Bernstein's 1953 
musical Wonderful Town (870 5570) 
DANCE 

New York City Ballet's winter season 
runs from Nov 22 to Feb 26 at New 
York State Theater. The opening 
gala performance features a new 
pas de deux by Peter Martins. The 
company’s annual presentation of 
Balanchine's The Nutcracker runs 
from Nov 30 to Dec 31 (307 4100/ 
870 5570) 


CONCERTS 

Avery Fisher Hail In tomorrow’s 
early evening concert, Leon 
Fleischer plays Prokofiev's Fourth 
Piano Concerto for the left hand, 
wfth the New York Philharmonic 
conducted by Hugh Wolff. On Wed, 
Tokyo String Quartet gives a recital. 
On Thurs, Fri morning and Sat, 

Franz Welser-Mdst conducts PM, 
Ravel and Beethoven, with piano 
soloist Krystian Zrrterman (875 
5030) 

Carnegie Hall Emanuel Ax and 
Peter Seritin give a duo piano recital 
on Wed. Christoph Eschenhacb 
conducts the Houston Symphony 
Orchestra on Thurs In Brahms and 
Prokofiev, with violin soloist Joshua 
Bell, and Leonard SJatkin conducts 
the Saint Louis Symphony on Fri in 
Nicholas Maw’s 95-minute Odyssey 
and on Sat in Mahler’s Third 
Symphony (247 7800) 

Alice TuUy Hal Final concerts in the 
Borodin Quartet's cycle of 
Shostakovich string quartets are 
Wed and Sun. Deborah Voigt gives_ 
a song recital on Sun afternoon (875 
505 0) 


■ PARIS 

OPERA/DANCE 

• Lb nozze di Ftgtfo runs till Dec 
4 at the Bastille: this week's 
performances are tonight. Wed, Fri 
and Sun afternoon. Nan Fischer 
conducts a cast including Hakan 
Hagegard/Willlam ShimeD, Leila 
Cuberli, Andrea Rost and Ferruccio 
Furlanetto (4473 1300) 

• Final performances of the Paris 
Opera Ballet’s opening production of 
the season are tomorrow and Thurs 
at the Bastille. K consists of a 
Balanchine- Robbins programme 


preceded by a grand spectacle with 
the entire company (4742 5371J 
• The Kirov Opera opens a 
three-week residency at Th&ttre des 
Champs- Bys6es on Nov 23 (4952 
5050) 

CONCERTS 

Theatre des Champs- ETysdes 
Tonight Michel Petrucciani piano 
recital. Tomorrow: Mikhail Rudy 
piano redtal. Wed: Philippe 
Herrs weghe conducts Orchestra of 
St Luke’s and La Chapel le Royale in 
works by Weill, Fairs and 
Stravinsky. Thurs: Charles Dutoit 
conducts Orchestra National de 
France In works by Debussy, Bartok 
and Stravinsky. Nov 22: Glulini 
conducts Vienna Philharmonic (4952 
5050) 

Th£&tre de la Vfile Fri*. Anner 
Bylsma plays Bach cello suites. Sab 
SlgiswaJd KuQken plays works by 
Bach for solo violin (4274 2277) 
Salle Pteyel Sab Klaus Welse 
conducts Orchestra National d’lie de 
France in works by Mozart and 
Bruckner, with piano soloist Rudolf 
Buchbinder (4563 0796) 
JAZZ/CABARET 

Legendary American trombonist J-J. 
Johnson opens a two-week 
residency tonight with his band at 
Lionel Hampton Jazz Club. Music 
daily from 10.30pm to 02.00am 
(Hotel Merldien Paris Etoile, 81 
Boulevard Gouvion St Cyr, tel 4068 
3042) 

FESTIVAL D’AUTOMNE 
Robert Lepage's Seven Streams of 
the IVver Ota opens on Fri at 
Maison des Arts-Cr&eil and runs till 
Nov 26 (4513 1919). Peter Sedars' 
production of The Merchant of 
Venice opens at Bobigny on Dec 6 
(4831 1145). 


ARTS GUIDE 

Monday; Berlin, Now York and 
Pate. 

Tuesday: Austria, Belgium, 
Netherlands. Switzerland, Chi- 
cago, Washington. 
Wednesday: France, Ger- 
many, ScaidteavtaL 
Thursday: Italy, Spain, Athens, 
London . Pragu e. 

Friday: Exhibitions Guide. 

European Cable and 
Satellite Business TV 
(Central European Time) 
MONDAY TO FRIDAY 
NBC/Super Channel: FT Busi- 
ness Today 133 0; FT Business 
Tonight 1730, 2230 

MONDAY 

NBC/Super Channel: FT 
Reports 1230. 

TUESDAY 

Euronews: FT Reports 0745. 
1315, 1545, 1815, 2345 

WEDNESDAY 

NBC/Super Channel: FT 
Reports 1230 

FRIDAY 

NBC/Super Channel: FT 
Reports 1230 

Sky News: FT Reports 0230, 
2030 

SUNDAY 

NBC/Super Channel: FT 
Reports 2230 

Sky News: FT Reports 0430, 
1730; 





12 




FINANCIAL TIMES MONDAY NOVEMBER 14 1$&4; 


..sr:* A visitor from 
g ^ Britain who 
f spends even a 

mimteM* few days in the 
‘• fml US is struck by 
rMM BS parallels. In 
both countries 
I a vigorous eco- 

■ 'Hr ■ nomic recovery 
is under way - In the US more 
than 3‘4 years old. In both 
countries it has been accompa- 
nied by low consumer price 
inflation and even lower rises 
fa producer prices. The Fed 
chairman, Alan Greenspan, 
and the Bank of England gov- 
ernor. Eddie George, have spo- 
ken about the best chance in 30 
years of achieving stable infla- 
tion-free growth. Yet the two 
countries conspicuously lack 
any feel-good factor. 

In the US this absence bas 
been demonstrated not only by 
the sweeping Republican con- 
gressional victories but by an 
election campaign, nasty even 
by American standards. It was 
impossible to listen even to 
classical music radio channels 
without being interrupted by 
knocking copy advertisements 
on the lines of: “Helen X is a 
liar. She says she is tough on 
crime. She voted three times 
against the death penalty.” 

Feel-bad is not only in the 
mind. I attended a Federal 
Reserve Bank of New York col- 
loquium on wage trends which 
echoed widespread concern at 
growing “pay inequality". But 
would so many people worry 
about inequality if national 
pay levels had been rising suf- 
ficiently to bring up living 
standards of the bottom 20 or 
30 per cent? The root problem 
is that average hourly pay 
peaked as long ago as 1978 and 
has since fallen fry 14 per cent, 
with no improvement even fa 
the current upturn. 

The conference papers con- 
centrated on the rising premia 
for skill, education and experi- 
ence; which leaves a lot to 
explain. 1 suspect clues are to 
be found fa the less polite sub- 
jects of drugs and illegal immi- 
gration. Drug prohibition lies 
behind a good half of US crime, 
which in turn offers a more 
attractive, if high-risk, pros- 
pect to many young people 
than training for promotion in 
fast food outlets or supermar- 
kets. Immigration helps to 
raise wages and reduce pay dif- 
ferentials fa the North Ameri- 
can continent but increases the 
differentials Inside the US. The 
now-approved California Prop- 
osition 187, denying social ser- 
vices to illegal immigrants, is a 
characteristic feel-nasty 
response. 

The Clinton team helped to 
bring nemesis on itself by its 
1992 election slogan “It’s the 


Samuel Brittan 

The feel-bad 
US factor 


US interest rates and inflation 

Percent 


10-yew bond yield 



— . .... - --90-day commercial paper 




— " Federal funds 


Jen Fob Mar Apr May Jtn Ad Auq Sup Od to 
Source; ttftwroam W* ■ amontti anrajateed rata 


economy, stupid” - itself a stu- 
pid slogan. This not only made 
the boom look like a slump. 
Much worse: it whipped up 
already unrealistic expecta- 
tions of how much government 
action could achieve. These 
disappointed expectations have 
been transformed into a 
vicious hatred of everything to 
do with government, except 
the subsidies and payouts it 
distributes. 

The similarities between the 
US and the UK extend to mone- 
tary policy. Both the Fed and 
the Bank of England have 
tightened policy and are expec- 
ted to tighten further, not 
because of actual Inflation, but 
preemptively. 

There are two sets of indica- 
tors which trigger US infla tion 
alarms. First there are signs of 
excessive growth. Real GDP 
has been rising at over 3% per 
cent per annum - maybe more 
- well above the estimated 
trend rates of 2'A per cent. 
And, fa contrast to the UK, 
offi cial estimates show that tho 
recession's slack has already 
been more than absorbed and 
that capacity utilisation is 
above normal Unemployment 
is, at 5.8 per cent, below the 
best guess for the “natural 
rate” above which inflation is 
supposed to accelerate. 

Those sceptical of macroeco- 
nomics can point to a second 
set of warning signals from the 
markets. Dollar commodity 
prices have risen by more than 
30 per cent this year. This has 


f - Cn run Kil y 
Max (S terms) 


does not expect the federal def- 
icit to exceed 2‘/i per cent of 
GDP in the years immediately 
ahead. But there are wide- 
spread fears that the growth of 
social security payments and 
existing Medicare programmes, 
could, as the population ages, 
push the deficit up towards 10 
per cent early in the next cen- 
tury. Greenspan spoke of 
“higher long-term bond rates 
with both a greater inflation 
premium and an expectation of 
higher real short-term rates in 
the future as government 
spending increasingly crowds 
out private spending”. 


THE FT INTERVIEW: Klaus Hansch 


T he Clinton Adminis- 
tration intends to 
make the most of 
Republican rhetoric 
about fiscal responsibility. But. 
in common with many fa the 
financial markets, it draws 
only limited comfort from tbe 
Republican commitment to a 
balanced budget constitutional 
amendment As this has Demo- 
crat support as well. Its 
chances are higher than they 
have ever been. But the texts 
in circulation lack a means of 
enforcement; and nearly all the 
specific items in the Republi- 
can 10-point “Contract'', used 
as a sort of manifesto during 
the congressional elections, 
pledge either spending 
increases or tax reductions. 
The more realistic hopes of the 
budget worriers centre round 
tbe report of the Commission 
on budget entitlements chaired 
by Senator Bob Kerry (Demo- 
crat, Nebraska) due soon to 
report. One idea is that the 
pension age should be indexed 
to the actuarial expectation of 
life at the relevant age. 

There are those who say 
that, for all its fiscal worries, 
the Fed itself has been “behind 
the curve” in its own monetary 
area. The Fed fluids rate - tbe 
one interest rate under its 
direct control - has hovered 
around 4% per cent, only about 
2 percentage points above tbe 
inflation rate and remarkably 
low so far Into an expansion. 
Henry Kaufman, the noted 
New York analyst, has said 
even a funds rate 100 basis 
points higher would not be suf- 
ficient to bring the growth rate 
down to trend. The Fed Open 
Market Committee meets 
tomorrow; and David Hale of 
Kemper Financial Services 
plausibly suggests there is a 95 
per cent chance it will increase 
short-term rates by at least 50 
basis points and a 50 per cent 
chance it will increase them by 
75 to 100 basis points. Mean- 
while short-term commercial 
paper rates have risen well 
above the Federal funds rate in 
anticipation. 


been paralleled by a much less 
spectacular rise in the inflation 
rate for non-food intermediate 
materials, from below 0 at tbe 
turn of the year to above 3Vj 
per cent The dollar has fallen 
by well over 10 per cent 
against major currencies; and 
bond yields have increased by 
over 2 percentage points. 
But the gold price has not 
risen. 

Greenspan attributes the rise 
in bond rates to deep-seated 
forces. Like many central 
bankers he worries most about 
the budget, saying in a recent 
speech that “entitlements are 
programmed to grow at a rate 
that will surely exceed the 
growth of the tax base”. Even 
tbe Congressional Budget 
Office, which is more pessimis- 
tic than the Administration, 

Commodity prices up, 
dollar down 


135 — 

130 . 

125 

120 

115 

110 ~i 

105 -y*Sj 
100 

95 — 

90 - 

as 1 * - 

J«n 

Santa UuMam 


Mr Klaus 
Hansch, the 
new president 
of the Euro- 
pean Parlia- 
ment. has 
made a brisk 
start: his aim is to establish 
the assembly as a more power- 
ful and more credible force tn 
the European Union. 

Late last week, the parlia- 
ment forced a delay in the 
investiture oE the new Commis- 
sion. due to take office on Jan- 
uary 7. until (probably) late 
January. 

Under the Maastricht treaty, 
the parliament has the power 
to endorse or reject the entire 
Commission. Mr H&nsch 
argued (hat parliamentarians 
from those states due to join 
the Union on January l - Aus- 
tria, Finland. Norway and Swe- 
den - must take part in the 
parliament’s vote if their com- 
missioners are part of the new 
Brussels executive. “We must 
have a parliament of 16 voting 
on a Commission of 16," said a 
senior aide to Mr Hansch. 

A uo-nonsense German 
Social Democrat, Mr Hansch’s 
ambition is clear. He wants the 
Strasbourg assembly to have 
rights in EU decisions almost 
equal to the Council of Minis- 
ters. This would give him a 
weight nearly equal to tbe 
president of the Commission, 
which proposes EU laws. 

Already there are those in 
Brussels who sense that Mr 
Hansch could become a front- 
rank Euro- player, particularly 
once presidency of the Com- 
mission has fallen from Mr 
Jacques Delors. a powerful pro- 
ponent of EU integration, to 
the untested Mr Jacques San- 
ter from Luxembourg. 

Leading member states, 
moreover, are keen to clip 
Brussels' wings, while Ger- 
many wants to enhance Stras- 
bourg's powers in the course of 
Che 1996 constitutional review 
of the Maastricht treaty. 

With this moderately fair 
wind behind it. the parliament 
has. under Mr Hansch. already 
seized an additional right to 
individual, public vetting of 
appointees to the Commission 
- by threatening not to put the 
endorsement of the entire 
Commission on its agenda. It 
now plans US Senate-style con- 
firmation hearings on the 21 
new commissioners. 

At the centre of Mr Hansch’s 
programme is an appeal to 
democratic legitimacy. “He is a 
conviction politician.” the aide 
says, as well as a pragmatic, 
procedurally-versed veteran 
who entered the parliament 



Haas Hansch: 'I see national parliaments as partners* 

General of 
the assembly 


when it was first directly 
elected in 1979. 

Close collaborators describe 
him as on tbe right of the Ger- 
man Social Democratic party, 
in the mould of Mr Helmut 
Schmidt, former German chan- 
cellor. 

Mr Hansch says he wants “to 
concentrate on legislative work 
and the most important priori- 
ties” and leave aside issues the 
parliament c ann ot influence, 
such as EU policy on 
Bosnia. 

The central idea is not an 
indiscriminate grab for more 
power but ensuring what he 
calls “double legitimacy”. Euro 
MPs should vote on decisions 
which national assemblies 
have not examined, because 
they are taken without parlia- 
mentary debate by ministers, 
or. more frequently, by their 
officials meeting behind closed 
doors in Brussels. 

This is not a zero-sum com- 
petition with national legisla- 
tures. he insists, but an 
attempt “to obtain control over 
European policy-making, to do 


what national parliaments can 
not do". 

He is fo rmalising joint com- 
mittees of European and 
national MPs to strengthen the' 
role of elected lawmakers in 
EU decision-making processes 
and to correct an imbalance 
which favours the executive. “I 
don’t see [national parlia- 
ments] as rivals; 1 see them as 
partners.'’ he says. 

Europe’s parliament “must 
have full rights of codecision" 
in all laws where the Council 
of Ministers can reach a deci- 
sion by majority voting, he 
argues. Maastricht partially 
gave the Strasbourg assembly 
this right of veto over the 
Council, but excluded a num- 
ber of areas such as environ- 
mental and transport policy. 

Mr Hansch would not extend 
the parliament's blocking 
rights into areas in which 
Council decisions must be 
unanimous, such as on treaty, 
tax or nearly all foreign policy 
questions. But “where govern- 
ments can be outvoted, all leg- 
islation needs to be legitimised 


: twice," argues- Mr ."Hans*, f^f. 
there is no consensus" between 
the European 

Council, he says bluntly, “Om'. ■■ 
there will be ho law”-. - ; r ; . 

EuithMRJ have stf tar fwiae 
vetoed , the Connell, . igort 
recently over a'vojce telephony 
law, on which tha issne'was 
not proposed Kberalisatipnbttt 
the assembly's right to rifeaffid 
and early ctmsultation oh' Jt 
'.Yet Mr BSnsch Js-waiy of too: - 
much : . inter-iastttuti&naly 
mus cle-flexing. “We have .to be 
able to : explain that there- is’ 
real public Interest said there-, 
fore to choose very careftfllsT 
before saying -No, he cautions. '. 

H e is concemai^by. 

public peraptionftf - 
the EuropeanPar-- 
li ament as. an meffl-’ 
cfent gravy train, mid intends 
to keep a tight rein internally. 
MBPS' expenses, and penchant 
for needless foreign . travel, 
have been trimmed. .. 

“The Bali express is off -hii - 
agenda.” quips one- European 
Parliament official; 

More quietly and impor- 
tantly, Mr EBtnsCh is insisting 
votes on laws take place 
shortly after the plenary In 
which they were debated, and - 
that debates be structured so . 
that commissioners and minis- 1 
tars can be scheduled to attend 
them and be held , to account; 
Since September, the Commis- 
sion president has attended, a 
regular question-time. These 
are fairly obvious reforms, but 
no previous parliament leader 
got close to achieving^theih. 

fa Commission confirmation 
hearings, says Mr Hansch, “we 
will demonstrate that we can 
have a proper debate at the 
[parliamentary] committee 
appropriate to that commis- 
sioner”. Be warns that “we 
may find the competence and 
attitudes of one . or, two com- 
missioners so unacceptable 
that we have to vote [the 
whole Commission] down" - 
but he thinks this improbable. 

Use of such a nuclear 
weapon would be uncharacter- 
istic of a man who above all . 
wants clear, effi cient decisions, 
comprehensible to citizens mis- 
trustful of Europe. The prize, 
and his self-appointed task, is . 
to bring the European Parlia- 
ment to the. 1996 Maastricht 
review as an equal partner, 
achieved on the basis of its 
record, which neither Brussels 
nor the member states 
could any longer think, of 
ignoring. 

David Gardner 


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LETTERS TO THE EDITOR 

Number One Southwark Bridge, London SE1 9HL . 

Fax 071 873 5938. Letters transmined should be clearly typed and not hand written. Please set fex for finest resolution 

Lottery charities body will make right start 


From Mr David Sieff. 

Sir, Permit me to present a 
more positive picture of the 
National Lottery Charities 
Board than that in your article, 
"Charities facing long delays 
for funds from lottery" 
(November 11). Contrary to fee 
impression given tn the article 
the NLCB is making good prog- 
ress and has the full backing of 
many in the voluntary sector, 
including the National 
Council for Voluntary Organi- 
sations. 

Since the board was 
appointed less than four 


months ago it has met regu- 
larly and agreed its draft 
guidelines. As I mentioned in 
my speech at the Charities Aid 
Foundation conference, we 
expect to appoint our chief 
executive in early December 
and we will begin full consulta- 
tion with the voluntary sector 
in early January. I went on to 
say: “We will be inviting appli- 
cations during the course of 
the coming year with the aim 
of making grants towards the 
latter part of 1995 - if we can 
do it earlier, we wilL But we 
shall do it properly.” 


With more than 700,000 vol- 
untary groups eligible to apply 
to us and in excess of £l00m 
available to distribute in the 
first year alone, the NLCB will 
be the UK's largest general 
grant-giving foundation. It 
would be irresponsible In the 
extreme for us to promise to 
rush grants out early in 1995, 
before we have in place the 
professional staff and systems 
necessary to ensure that we 
are fair, effective and transpar- 
ent in all our actions. 

The NLCB has a unique 
opportunity to make a tremen- 


dous impact on the lives of the 
poor and disadvantaged fa 
society, and to improve the 
quality of life in the commu- 
nity. We are determined to be 
successful tn this and we 
believe that time spent in get- 
ting things right now will lay 
solid foundations for the 
future. 

David Sieff, 

chairman. The national Lottery 
Outrides Board, 

7th Floor. 

St Vincent House. 

30 Orange Stre et, 

London EC2H 7HH 


Consensus is way forward 
to a minimum wage 


Franchised post offices 
popular with customers 


From Mr John Monks. 

Sir, fa his article on the 
TUC’s budget submission 
<TUC demands £lbn boost for 
employment”. November 7), 
Robert Taylor was good 
enough to report my remarks 
on GMTV the previous day 
that the level of a national 
minimum wage would need to 
be "set fa the light of the eco- 
nomic circumstances at the 
time" of its Introduction. How- 
ever, this was just part of the 
picture. 

First, the minimum wage 
should be fixed at around half 
male me dian earnings, a posi- 
tion which has been TUC pol- 
icy since 1991. 

Second, the social partners 
should be consulted by govern- 
ment before the precise level is 
fixed. 

Third, there is a constructive 
role for trade unions to play in 


monitoring Its implementation 
and enforcement 
The hourly rate has domi- 
nated much of the debate to 
date on a national minimum 
wage. But there are far-reach- 
ing institutional questions 
which arise from the commit- 
ment. Our intention in the 
year ahead is both to campaign 
against low pay and to build 
some consensus with employ- 
ers on the way forward. That 
we are making progress can be 
seen from the recent survey by 
tbe Engineering Employers’ 
Federation, which found 40 per 
cent of its members favoured 
the introduction of a national 

m inimum Wage. 

John Monks, 
secretary general. 

Trades Union Congress. 
Congress House. 

Great Russell Street, 

London WClB 3LS 


From Mr Mike Flanagan. 

Sir. Mr David Erdman’s com- 
ments (Letters, November 8) 
that Post Office Counters 
advises Its most valued cus- 
tomers (old-age pensioners) to 
open bank accounts with our 
competition is preposterous. 

Ninety-five per cent of 
Britain's post offices have been 
run by sub-postmasters for the 
past 350 years. Business in post 
offices which we have moved 
from Crown to sub-postmaster 
operations has grown twice as 
fast as tbe rest of our network. 

Our research shows these 
offices are popular with our 
customers. They are conve- 
niently located - often in 
smart new premises in shop- 
ping centres - and are more 
accessible, too, with car park- 
ing facilities and significantly 
longer opening hours. 

Opening post offices in part- 


Engineers need body to exert influence 


From Sir John Fatrdough- 
Sir. Rowland Morgan 
(Letters, November 5) seems 
intent on reliving old battles 
and restricting the role of the 
new Engineering Council to 
being a lobbyist for narrow sec- 
tional interests. What engi- 
neers need urgently is a gov- 
erning body that can speak 
with a powerful single voice to 
enable the engineering profes- 
sion to exert its proper influ- 
ence on government and soci- 
ety in general. In order to 
deliver this important objec- 
tive, the new arrangements 
must encompass the present 
Engineering Council, the engi- 
neering institutions, industry 


and academe. The idea that we 
can have a unified profession 
which excludes the institutions 
is a contradiction in terms. If 
the new central body is to have 
credibility it must represent 
the whole profession and not 
operate fa some quasi-trade 
union role. 

Rowland Morgan is wrong to 
suggest that the Engineering 
Assembly has not been allowed 
to express an opinion on the 
new arrangements. In fact, 
when the assembly met in 
July. I gave a presentation on 
the unification proposals 
which was followed by a lively 
discussion. Also, a number of 
the motions debated at the 


assembly covered the unifica- 
tion issue. More recently. I 
presented the unification pro- 
posal to the chairmen of the 
Engineering Council's regional 
branches and they gave their 
unanimous support 
The time is test approaching 
when we have to take a deci- 
sion. I hope that all engineers 
will grasp the opportunity that 
we now have to unify the pro- 
fession and make its presence 
felt in the corridors of power. 
John Fairclough, 
chairman. 

Unification of the Engineering 
Profession. 

10 Maltravers Street. 

London WC2R 3ER 


nership with sub-postmasters 
is a cost-effective way of oper- 
ating them. The savings we 
make provide opportunities for 
reinvestment elsewhere in the 
business and help to support 
the network of rural sub-post 
offices which play such a vital 
role in the co mmuni ty. 

Post offices franchised to 
leading supermarkets are a 
small but valuable part of our 
network - just 130 out of a 
nationwide network of 20,000 
post offices. Franchising is just 
one of the ways in which we 
are developing our network to 
improve services to customers 
by providing a mix of offices 
catering to customers’ needs. 
Mike Flanagan. 
network director. 

Post Office Counters, 

Drury House, 

1-16 Blackfriars Road, 

London SE1 9UA 

In the (p)ink 

From Mr Derek Prag. 

Sir. I was very grateful, 
while in Salt Lake City last 
month, to find daily in the 
hotel newsagent's shop copies 
of the FT. US edition, looking 
just like the UK edition - and 
making the hands just as dirty. 

Can it be that, when the 
arrangements for the US edi- 
tion were made, an indispens- 
able requirement was that the 
printer's ink should be just as 
easily transferable from page 
to finger as is the case with the 
parent edition? 

Derek Prag, 

4? New Road, 

Digsuxli, Welwyn, 

Hertfordshire ALB QAQ 


Anend :r 

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financial times 


MONDAY NOVEMBER 14 1994 


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... 


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David Garin 


right star: 


; V f (juices 


... * . - MV 


financial times 

Number One Southwark Bridge, London SE1 9HL 
Tei: 071-873 3000 Telex: 922186 Fax: 071407 5700 

Monday November 14 1994 

Brisk start for 
Mr Kohl 


Gennany's coalition has made a 
business-like start to the new leg- 
islative period by rapidly complet- 
ing talks on a new government 
programme ahead of Chancellor 
Helmut Kohl's planned re-election 
by parliament tomorrow. The 
sharp decline in the coalition's 
majority to only 10 seats from 134 
before last month’s election has 
resulted in a welcome reduction in 
the propensity for squabbling 
between Mr Kohl’s conservatives 
and the liberal Free Democrats. 

In its efforts to present an image 
of unity, the coalition has glossed 
over some divisive issues in areas 
such as Jaw and order and extend- 
ing citizenship to foreign resi- 
dents. That leaves a risk of future 
conflict open. However, in its gen- 
eral prescriptions for streamlining 
government, lowering the tax bur- 
den and increasing incentives for 
employment, the coalition is 
pointing in the right direction. 

Policy proclamations are one 
thing, bat delivery is another. The 
true test of the government’s met- 
tle will be whether Mr Kohl shows 
not only the will but also the 
capacity to improve Germany's 
economic structure and increase 
its decision-making role on the 
international stage. In both areas, 
reflecting his weakened domestic 
position and the complexity of 
post-cold war politics in Europe, 
the chancellor will be fi ghtin g 
against adverse circumstances. 

On the international front, Mr 
Kohl's re-election comes at a par- 
ticularly difficult time. The US 
move to stop enforcing the United 
Nations arms embargo against 
Bosnia will severely strain 
Europe's efforts to maintain a con- 
sensus on the conflict in former 
Yugoslavia. The chancellor’s need 
to take greater account of the 
opposition Social Democrats win 
constrain Germany's ability to 
play a fuller part in European 
defence arrangements, in state of 
the lifting of constitutional hur- 
dles on deployment of troops out- 
side Nato. 


Growing disarray tim 

Ha ving carved out a niche in tun 
history for accamplishing German win 
unification, Mr Kohl would like to nex 
leave the chancellorship in 1996 as big 
the man who brought about a inti 
, matching unification of Europe, got 
However, growing disarray in wb 
Stance over European policies, as thh 

An end to 
privilege 


Finance ministers and chancellors 
seldom jump at the prospect of 
making the tax system mare effi- 
cient Mostly they need the added 
incentive that reform will be popu- 
lar. By all accounts, Mr Kenneth 
Clarke is beaming convinced that 
reducing biases against employ- 
ment In the coming UK budget 
would meet this condition, making 
the system fairer as well as more 
effective. What he may not have 
realised is that improving the tax 
treatment of savings offers the 
same prize. • 

Raising the UK’s meagre gross 
saving rate is a worthy goal, but 
the evidence is that governments 
can do little to make their citizens 
save more. What they can deter- 
mine, however, is the level of pub- 
lic dis-saving, and the allocation, of 
private savings. After his tough 
budget last year. Mr Clarke can 
already rfaim to have done the 
first of these. He should explore 
the other side of a profiavings pol- 
icy in his second budget, acting to 
ensure that the resources be has 
freed do not have to be mangled 
by a distorting tax system, but 
flow to the areas offering the high- 
est pretax economic return. 

The best, way to achieve such a 
neutral treatment of savings 
would be to move to an expendi- 
ture system of taxation. Govern- 
ments have understandably 
baulked at the thought of such a 
drastic reform. But the introduc- 
tion of fiscally privileged forms of 
savings - personal equity plans, 
tax exempt special savings 
accoun ts, ftnd, most recently, the 
venture capital funds which Mr 
Clarke announced last year - 
means that most personal saving 
now receives close to an expendi - 
ture tax treatment 

Heavily penalised 

Granting tax privileges incre- 
mentally is politically attractive, 
perhaps,, but it goes against the. 
goal of taxing funds efficiently. 
Offeri n g a mass of different tax 
concessions only further encour- 
ages savers to select assets far tax 
reasons rather than for the rela- 
tive economic return. The system 
is now less distortive than it used 

, to be. But, as toe Institute far fis- 
cal studies pointed out in its 
recent “Green Budget*, housing 
and pensions still, enjoy negative 
effective tax rates, whereas stan- 
dard interest bearing accounts are 

heavily penalised. 


If there is one defence for the 
arbitrary extension of fiscal con- 
cessions, it is that sooner or later 
a privilege becomes a right This 
year, Mr Clarke faces just such a 
moment of truth with regard to 
TESSAs, introduced in 1990. TES- 
SAs were a way of offering some 
of the advantages of PEPs to the 
non-share-owning classes. By 
opening a TESSA, individuals 
could receive tax-free interest on 
savings of up to £9,000, for a 
period of five years. For the first 
TESSAs, that grace period will 
end in January. 

Destabilising exodus 

There are now to TESSAs, with 
combined funds of over £20bn. lit- 
tle of this money represents addi- 
tional saving: by and large, 
account-holders simply moved 
funds into TESSAs to earn the 
extra return. Letting the tax con- 
cession lapse risks a highly desta- 
bilising exodus of funds, as sophis- 
ticated savers rash to transfer 
their money elsewhere. It would 
also imply that extending fiscal 
privilege to the less sophisticated 
was a temporary gimmick, not a 
long-term co mmitm ent to treating 
savers more equitably. 1 

The least wealthy hold most of 
their' wealth in interest-bearing 
accounts. Bather than allowing 
the gap between rich and poor 
savers to widen. Mr Clarke should 
decide to narrow it further, com- 
bining PEPs and TESSAs into a 
single scheme. Individuals would 
be able to earn tax-free returns by 
investing in any kind of financial 
asset, including ordinary cash 
deposits. This could be achieved at 
little or no cost to the exchequer, 
if necessary, by setting a limit on 
contributions somewhat lower 
than the existing £9,000 limit for 
PEPs. 

Reform along these lines, when 
combined with the ongoing reduc- 
tion in the value of mortgage 
interest relief, would go a long 
way towards a neutral tax treat- 
ment of household savings. Mr 
Clarke may think fiscal neutrality 
a rather dull theme for budget 
day, but he could claim a more 
resounding motive. Namely, that a 
government which wants more 
people to leave the security of the 
dole, for the ups and downs of the 
labour market, has no business 
penalising their attempts to pro- 
vide themselves with the security 
of easily accessible savings. 


W elcome it may be, 
but is it enough? 
That is the ques- 
tion worried bank- 
ers are asking as 
passenger revenues finally pour 
into Eurotunnel’s coffers this week. 

At tbe time of the rights issue in 
May, the projected cost of servicing 
the £7J}bn mountain of debt raised 
to finance the cross-channel ven- 
ture was put at £546m for 1995. 

Since then delays have eaten Into 
forecast revenue, while short-term 
interest rates have risen. Within 12 
months, after a full season of 
operations, it will be clear whether 
Eurotunnel is capable of surmount- 
ing this awesome hurdle against a 
deteriorating fin ancial background. 

Meantime the markets are offer- 
ing a provocative answer to the 
conundrum about the bankers' 
huge exposure. In the secondary 
market in Eurotunnel's m ain £6-8bn 
tranche of bank debt, the price 
quoted by a leading dealer on Fri- 
day was 55 pence in the pound for 
those willing to sell and 62 for 
would-be purchasers, against the 
par value of 100 at which most of 
the 220-odd banks involved still 
carry the loan on their books. 

The market Is small in relation to 
the total debt But its assessment of 
the prospects points to a potential 
writedown of just over £3bn and a 
large negative net worth for the 
company. 

Since the worst of the price foil 
came after the rights issue, the mar- 
ket clearly believes the slender but 
positive year-end cash balances 
projected In the rights document 
will be negative. Participants in this 
market, including bank lenders to 
Eurotunnel, appear not to regard 
the tunnel operator as financially 
viable in its present form. 

As for the equity shares, they are 
down more than 70 per cent from 
their peak and are worth a little 
less than when floated in 1987. The 
prospectus then promised a divi- 
dend yield on the offer price of 16 
per cent by 1994. 34 per cent by 1998 
and 60 per cent by 2003. Now 2003 is 
the earliest date Eurotunnel dares 
to forecast an initial payout. 

According to one battle- weary 
trader last week, with tongue only 
slightly in cheek, the market may 
still be 15 years too cheerful about 
the dividend timetable. While Euro- 
tunnel is a splendid engineering 
achievement, it is hard to deny that 
it has been a financial fiasco so for. 

Could private sector financing for 
such a large infrastructure project 
have been better managed? Just 
possibly. In the heady hanld-ng cli- 
mate of 1987 the banks would have 
been better advised to demand a 
bigger cushion of equity before 
advancing money. Whether it would 
have been available is a moot point 
British institutional investors, in 
particular, ware reluctant. And with 
good reason. Tbe lessons of history 


well as scepticism in Germany 
about wider supranational Euro- 
pean decision-making, may force 
Mr Kohl to trim his sails. 

Foreign affairs played little part 
either in the election campaign or 
in the past three weeks’ coalition 
negotiations. It is on its domestic 
record, above all on its handling of 
the economy, that Mr Kohl's coali- 
tion will stand or falL Necessary 
budgetary consolidation has been 
achieved so far mainly through 
tax increases rather than spending 
reductions, malting fresh cuts in 
public expenditure a priority for 
the next four years. 

Painful decisions 

The Free Democrats have suc- 
cessfully pressed for a commit- 
meat to phase out next year's 73 
per cent tax surcharge as soon as 
possible, and to reassess it annu- 
ally. However, if it is to achi eve 
the conditions for tax cuts, the 
government will have to prepare 
the electorate for painful decisions 
on pruning spending, above all on 
social security. In view of the 
Social Democrats' strong position 
in the Linder (federal states), the 
government will need a large mea- 
sure of SPD compliance to carry 
out such policies. 

Budgetary control will be a less 
onerous task if - as the Bonn 
finance ministry is assuming - 
real economic growth continues 
during the next three years at this 
year’s rate of 25 to 3 per cent 
However, a combination of this 
year’s 2 percentage point rise in 
long-term interest rates and next 
year's sharp tax increases may 
make 1995 growth less buoyant 
than the government is at present 
forecasting. Depending on the 
need for more budgetary rigour, 
the Social Democrats may eventu- 
ally try to engineer formal entry 
into the government, in a grand 
coalition with the Christian Demo- 
crats, as the price for supporting 
Mr Kohl's economic policies. 

Unlike the apparent situation in 
President Bill Clinton's US, in 
Gemuuxy the economy will con- 
tinue to shape governmental for- 
tunes. It will also determine 
whether Mr Kohl can, during the 
next four years, realise his goal of 
big steps forward In European 
integration at the 1996 EU inter- 
governmental conference - or 
whether he has to settle for some- 
thing rather less ambitious. 


Could private sector borrowing for the huge Channel tunnel 
project have been better managed, asks John Plender 

More smoke 
than light 



are not encouraging. Indeed, the 
first rule of big international infra- 
structure project financing in the 
19th century was that initial share- 
holders rarely emerge well. 

That was certainly true of Egypt 
and Ferdinand de Lesseps' Suez 
Canal project The country lost £8m 
on the shares before defaulting on 
its loans when the canal company's 
revenues were insufficient to ser- 
vice the related debt As for the 
Panama Canal, another project 
started by de Lesseps with private 
finance, it had to be completed 
under US government ownership. 

Domestic British infrastructure 
projects, including rail and tunnel 
ventures, were not uniformly disas- 
trous in the Victorian period. Yet 
many, including the first tunnel 
under the Thames, generated 
rewards only for later owners, 
sometimes after two or three bank- 
ruptcies. 

This serves to underline the pecu- 
liar nature of project financing. In 
most normal bank-lending business, 
the problem for the hank is that it 
knows less about the project or 
business to be financed than the 
borrower. Tha peculiarity of much 


Large-scale project finance is that 
there is symmetry in the lack of 
information: the borrower and 
lender may both be in the dark 
given that such projects are inevi- 
tably one-offs. Small wonder the 
historic record is so disheartening. 

In the 19th century, English 
financiers sought to overcome the 
problem by using uncalled capital 
Investors were required to make an 
initial down-payment, and could be 
called upon for further capital as 
money was needed. The snag, 
apparent in the railway boom of the 
1840s, was that this encouraged 
speculation: speculators who found 
themselves unable to pay would 
dump partly-paid share, so depress- 
ing the market. Financiers 
responded with innovations such as 
vendor shares for contractors, and 
preference shares and debentures, 
giving secure income to investors. 

Today forecasting for infrastruc- 
ture projects is more scientific. Yet 
neither Eurotunnel, the railways 
nor the banks really know how 
buoyant or otherwise revenues will 
be. And, ironically, the banks have 
unwittingly found themselves In 
the role of 19th century investors. 


since their original loan has turned 
out to be no more than a down-pay- 
ment, followed by urgent calls from 
Eurotunnel for more. 

Meantime financiers have come 
up with a possible answer to the 
20th century equivalent of the 
dumping problem. The development 
of secondary markets in the debt of 
distressed companies means - or so 
their proponents claim - tha t weak 
banks may not pose a threat to debt 
refinancing. They can pass the buck 
to others by selling on the debt 

At Eurotunnel tbe market is still 
small. According to Mr Martin 
Drat a London-based vice-president 
of Bankers Trust, which reckons to 
have the lion’s share of the busi- 
ness, £120-130m of Eurotunnel's 
debt is now traded in the secondary 
mnrirpjt The reason the trade is lim- 
ited is that the sale of debt would 
force the hanks to recognise a loss 
equivalent to 45 per cent of their 
exposure. A specific provision 
would then have to be made a gains t 
profits. 

This is an odd reflection on the 
nature of bank provisioning, which 
is designed to deal with the problem 
of the lack of marketability of bank 


assets. In the absence of a market, 
provisions and writeoffs take place 
only late in the day. when the loss 
of value is beyond dispute. Yet the 
development of secondary markets 
in the debt of distressed companies 
appears to make a nonsense of tins 
traditional accounting practice. 

, A further reproach to the 
accounting profession is that the 
trade in bank debt also reflects 
other forms of creative accounting. 
According to Gary Klesch of Klesch 
& Company, a London-based debt 
broker and analyst, much of the 
Eurotunnel secondary market activ- 
ity has been driven by hanks swap- 
ping Eurotunnel debt for paper in 
more creditworthy financial institu- 
tions carrying a lower interest cou- 
pon. 

I n many continental European 
countries, auditors allow the 
new debt to be put onto the 
books at the value of the old, 
despite the loss of income. 
The bank then has the benefit of a 
less risky asset that has to he 
backed by less regulatory capital. 

Some banks are now beginning to 
make specific provisions against 
Eurotunnel debt, so market activity 
is driven less by accountancy arbi- 
trage than by direct sales for cash. 
For once the provisions have been 
made, the trade no longer has such 
unpleasant implications for the car- 
rying value of the loan in the 
banks' books. The message, not for 
the first time, is that bank provi- 
sioning is driven more by an upturn 
in bank profitability than any real- 
istic assessment of loan assets by 
banks and their auditors. 

The big question about this mar- 
ket, which has always worried the 
Bank of England, is whether new 
investors will be willing partici- 
pants in any financial reconstruc- 
tion of Eurotunnel. If the market's 
judgment about the value of Euro- 
tunnel’s debt is right, an important 
test will come soon. A serious short- 
fall of revenue next year would 
point to a stay of interest payments 
and a capital reconstruction, proba- 
bly involving the banks in swap- 
ping debt for equity. 

If, as Gary Klesch and others in 
the market argue, new investors 
have an overwhelming interest in 
improving the company's financial 
position, Eurotunnel could end up 
with a more viable capital struc- 
ture. The secondary market in debt 
would then take off, since the 
debt-equity swap would require 
banks to make provisions in their 
accounts, making it easier for them 
to sell out. 

In theory, the trade could then 
grow from the present £l3Dm to a 
multi-billion pound market. That 
potential no doubt expiates why big 
US institutions like Bankers Trust 
and Continental Bank are prepared 
to trawl in what, for the moment, is 
a very small pond. 


Fault line on road to monetary union 


\ It may seem 

I r — | perverse that the 

pfiW future of economic 

l[_ P Saj and monetary union 

| /TiTk in Europe now looks 
dependent mainly 
on attitudes to insti- 
" E rs*cnj L tuttonal change and 

— * — to political union. 

Yet that is the picture emerging 
from the latest di«*nssjnns initiated 
by Karl La mere, the foreign policy 
spokesman for the Christian Demo- 
crats in Germany’s Bundestag. 

His insistence in last Monday’s 
Financial Times (Personal View) 
that there is a “fundamental fink 
between monetary and political 
unions" undoubtedly reflects a pow- 
erful strand of opinion. For exam- 
ple, Mr Hans van den Broek, the 
European Commissioner, declared 
in London recently that economic 
integration was a means, not an 
rad: the rad was a political union. 

Experts in the development of the 
Ecu believe that the critical next 
step in Emu is to establish institu- 
tional parameters necessary for the 
Bundesbank to lead a move forward 
through Maastricht’s Emu stages. 

Yet just as these issues become 


Conflict of 


conjoined key players' minds, there 
are signs of basic divisions of opin- 
ion on all aspects of the institu- 
tional agenda. For once, French 
opinion, and British, seems mark- 
edly at variance with that in Chan- 
cellor Helmut Kohl's CDU. 

In Brussels recently, Alain 
Lam asso ure, the French minister 
for Europe, warned that a Maas- 
tricht-style attempt to push a “fed- 
eralist” agenda for the 1996 inter- 
governmental conference, or indeed 
one that was seen to attack national 
sovereignty, would fail to pass 
either a referendum or through the 
Assemble Nationals. 

His remarks were a pointed 
response to Mr Lamers’ notorious 
paper which, in the course of its 
clumsy advance across the national 
sensibilities of virtually every 
Union member, had lectured France 
on her attachment to “the sover- 
eignty of the etat nation which has 
long since become an empty shell". 

Moderate opinion in the CDU and 
the Christian Social Union, its more 
Euro- sceptical sister party, has sub- 
sequently expressed concern about 
the paper, especially its suggestion 
of a “hard core" of fast-track Euro 


loyalty 


■ Only a few weeks ago The 
Guardian newspaper was huffing 
and puffing about Sir Paul 
Beresford, a junior housing 
minister, being allowed to continue 
working as a part-time dentist The 
disclosure cast further doubt on the 
prime minister's judgment 
thundered the paper. 

So what would the newspaper 
make of the revelation that 
Professor Bernard Debrfi. a Gauilist 
MP, is to take over as France’s aid 
minister? Not only is he a close 
political ally of prime minister 
Edouard Balladur but he Is also the 
doctor who led the team that 
operated on. President Mitterrand 
for prostate cancer in 1992. 

If anyone should know about the 
president’s illness - the chief factor 
that has unleashed ferocious 
presidential rivalries - it is Dr 
Debrt Talk about an inside job ... 


British industry. But will he be the 
last? 

Jordan, who roused the CBI’s 
annual conference with his call for 
more skill* tr aining , remains firm 
favourite to become the next 
full-time general secretary of the 
Brussels-based International 
Confederation of Free Trade 
Unions. A decision on that 
globe-trotting job is expected by the 
end of the month. 


states. Ironically, however, this is 
perhaps the most logical part of the 
paper. As Mr Lamers, its co-author, 
said last week: “Someone who, like 
John Major, accepts the method of 
variable geometry in principle can 
neither disapprove of nor prevent 
the establishment of a hard core." 

The deeper problem lies else- 
where rad has received less atten- 
tion: the current German approach 

The Franco-German 
fault line is becoming 
clear, sharpened by 
France’s presidential 
elections 

is strongly centralist. It explicitly 
envisages that the European Com- 
mission will “take on features of a 
European government”. It down- 
grades the Council of Ministers to a 
second chamber of the European 
Parliament. It seems to ignore the 
role of national parliaments. 

In fact, it seeks to create a single 
European state. Karl Lamers in 
Paris last week was quoted as argu- 


Observer 


1 Si 


teg for a federal concept of Europe 
that would eventually become “a 
state and not just a confederation of 
states". This is precisely the fear of 
those who see Emu as a means to 
political union. Now the shape of 
that political union is being blurted 
out by its most influential advo- 
cates, Helmut Kohl’s CDU. 

It is no wonder that Dominique 
Baudis, French CDS leader in the 
European Parliament and a CDU 
ally, objected to the use of the term 
“federalism” in any 1996 treaty, to 
the idea of the Commission achiev- 
ing supranational governmental 
powers, and to the downgrading of 
the Council of Ministers. 

The Francome rman fault line is 
becoming clear, sharpened by 
France's presidential elections. 
French opinion increasingly seeks 
to base European reform on giving 
power to national governments, 
national parliaments and the Coun- 
cil of Ministers. It is difficult to see 
how an Emu based on abolition of 
national currencies and a political 
union strategy based on a Commis- 
sion/Buropean parliament duopoly 
could satisfy French electors. 

However closely economies may 


converge, without more agreement 
on the next steps to political 
co-operation it is difficult to see 
how Emu could progress. No won- 
da - the distinguished European Par- 
liament constitutional expert. Fer- 
nand Herman, is gloomy. Observing 
that the chances of achieving una- 
nimity at the 1996 intergovernmen- 
tal conference are practically non- 
existent, he added: "The chances of 
realising a lasting monetary union 
without reinforcing the political 
union are just as slim”. 

It has become conventional to 
praise the CDU/CSU paper and Mr 
Lamers himself for having initiated 
a valuable debate. With its undiplo- 
matic frankness it bas laid the key 
questions of Europe's political and 
economic future on the table, in 
good time for 1996, while exposing 
profound differences between Ger- 
many and her chief European part- 
ners. It is these differences that will 
need to be overcome. 


Graham Mather 

The author is an MEP and president 
of the European Policy Forum. 




Training tips 


On tour 


■ Who was that tucking into 
Concorde's first-class fare on the 
British government’s latest huge 
trade mission to India? Bill Jordan, 
president of the Electrical and 
Rn gmppring Union, seems to have 
made a bit of history by becoming 
the first prominent trade iminn 
leader to agree to be dispatched 
overseas to help beat the dram for 


■ Things seem to be picking up for 
the family of the late Robert 
Maxwell, the disgraced media 
tycoon. Betty Maxwell, his widow, 
has Started popping up everywhere 
giving her version of life with the 
megalomaniac. 

Her new biography - A Mind of 
My Own - can only increase 
sympathy for young lan and Kevin 
Maxwell who are due to stand trial 
next year for their involvement in 
alleged fraud relating to their late 
father's media empire. However, it 
raises the question of whether the 
authorities acted correctly in 
banning Maxwell the Musical on the 
grounds that it might prejudice a 
fair trial for the Maxwell boys. 

Talking of fair trials, a young jock 
looking remarkably like lan 
Maxwell was testing out the 
equipment last week at tbe 
£g0On-year Mecklenburgh Health 
Club, normally a favoured haunt of 
slim line lawyers rather than 
recipients of legal aid. 




‘I left my wallet in my other lncky 
suit' 

Perhaps he is getting in training 
for next year’s big fight with the 
Serious Fraud Office? 


Playing a joker 

■ Hope that Christopher Watford, 
the new Lord Mayor of London, is 
not as eccentric as some of his 
predecessors. 

Walford, a partner in Allen & 
Overys corporate practice, is the 
first master of the Worshipful 
Company of Makers of Playing 
Cards to mak e it to the Mansion 
House. The only other master of the 
company to make such a splash was 
Albert Altman who was chairman 


of the Bridge House Estates 
committee when the Prince of 
Wales opened Tower Bridge 100 
years ago. It coincided with 
Altman’s silver wedding and the 
birth of his 12th child. 

The poor man was so 
overwhelmed that he celebrated by 
naming his new offspring Sylvia 
Bridget 


Soft touch Vlad 

■ At last it looked as though the 
US visit of Vladimir Zhirinovsky, 
tbe Russian nationalist politician, 
was going to end in a punch-up. 
“Vlad The Mad-As-Hell: Russian 
Leader Trashes Plaza Hotel”, 
screamed the headline in Friday's 
New York Post 
However, on reacting the fine 
print it serais that the editors of 
Rupert Murdoch's New York rag 
had been using the word “trash” 
rather loosely. Vlad had just been 
doing what lots of New Yorkers do 
- complaining about the poor 
service at Donald Tramp's Plaza 
hotel. Indeed, he was remarkably 
civil about the Plaza’s shortcomings 
by all accounts. 


A new boy speaks 

■ Sir James Goldsmith is on a 
mission. Should the most 
flamboyant new member of the 
European Parliament prove 
anywhere near as successful in 
politics as he has been in 


business his colleagues had 
better look for new jobs. 

Becoming an MEP was almost a 
spin-off for Goldsmith from his 
campaign against Gaft. However, 
once inside the temples of 
Strasbourg and Brussels, he has 
decided that the only rational 
response to a massive, wasteful 
“Eurocracy" was to campaign 
fervently for its destruction. 

“This place is a putrid 
pseudodemocracy, full of uprooted 
trash," rages Brussels' most 
outspoken new boy, who has set up 
his command post in the drab office 
of the L’Autre Europe group he 
heads. Like a big cat abandoned in 
Belgravia be stalks the halls of the 
labyrin thine parliament building, 
bemused, appalled, but very for 
from intimidated. 

Members encountered in the 
corridors are right to jump, as If 
they might be eaten. It is his sole 
reason for being there. Despite his 
venture into politics he does not 
regard himself as another Silvio 
Berlusconi or Ross Perot. “The only 
man ever to go into parliament with 
honest intent was Guy Fawkes. I 
fee] the same way," says Goldsmith. 


Third party 

■ The good news is that the more 
go-ahead of Britain’s insurance 
companies are starting to 
investigate the digital 
superhighway. The bad news is that 
they want to see if fire sprinklers 
are attached. 








14 





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Reynolds warns of threat 
to N Ireland peace plans 


By John Murray Brown in Dublin 

Mr Albert Reynolds, prime 
minister of the Irish Republic, 
warned yesterday that the peace 
process In Ireland could be dam- 
aged if his coalition government 
was toppled by a split He was 
commenting shortly before the 
Labour party, the junior partner 
in the coalition, said it would 
delay a decision about with- 
drawal from the government, a. 
move that would precipitate a 
general election. 

The Labour decision came after 
Mr Reynolds promised the par- 
ty's leaders a full explanation 
tomorrow of the point on which 
they had threatened to quit. The 
dispute centres on the appoint- 
ment of Mr Harry Whelehan as 
president of the High Court white 
rewrttniring as attomsy-generaL 

The Labour party’s decision, 
reached after an emergency 
meeting of its MPs in Dublin, 
means that today's critical meet- 
ing between Mr Dick Spring, 


Labour k»aifcr and foreign minis- 
ter. and Sir Patrick Mayhew, OK 
Northern Ireland secretary, will 
go ahead as planned. The two 
men are due to review progress 
on the joint framework document 
for a durable settlement fbr the 
province. 

But the Dublin government’s 
crisis may have been postponed, 
not averted, with many Labour 
MPs adamant yesterday that the 
party should quit the coalition, 
whatever Mr Reynolds may offer 
as an explanatioo. 

Mr Reynolds’s view about the 
risk to the peace process was ech- 
oed by Mr Gerry Adams, presi- 
dent of the Sinn Ffein party, the 
IRA's political wing. “The peace 
process is still at a delicate and 
sensitive stage”, he said. “I hope 
that the present strains between 
the government parties can be 
resolved satisfactorily and that 
party political and other difficul- 
ties can be put aside in the 
national interest so that the vital 
work in support of a peaceful res- 


olution is carried on." Sinn Fdin 
in particular is anxious to avoid 
an early election in the republic 
to avoid the risk that it might 
face a new prime minister, per- 
haps less accomodating to repub- 
lican sentiment than Mr Reyn- 
olds and his Fianna Fail, 
traditionally the party of consti- 
tutional republicanism. 

The peace process was shaken 
last Thursday by the murder oT a 
postal worker in the Northern 
Ireland town of Newry. It was the 
first killin g in the province 
blamed on IRA members since 
the IRA ceasefire on August 31. 

In a move to distance itself 
from the Newry incident, the IRA 
issued a further statement over 
the weekend, saying the use of 
all weapons had been banned 
since the ceasefire. 

Mr Adams will hope to refocus 
attention on the peace process 
when he visits the UK this week 
fbr the first time since London 
lifted its long-standing ban on 
him on October 31. 





Germany’s Michael Schumacher (above) leading Britain’s Damon £011 in the Adelaide Grand Prix 
yesterday. On the 36th lap the pair crashed out of the race, which meant that Schumacher became the 
first German world motor-racing champion, Will would have had to beat him to win the title. Yesterday’s 
race was the climax to a Formula One season marked by tragedies and controversies pur n*ar 


Delors plans public agencies for EU 


Continued from Page 1 

the Danish economics commis- 
sioner who chaired the trans- 
European networks task force, 
believes that new partnerships 
between the public and private 
sector would help to overcome 
those obstacles. 

The planned “Euro-project 
authorities'' or “vehicles" would 
help to manage, operate and reg- 


ulate each network, and would be 
able to raise money. Membership 
would j nrlnrip national transport 
ministers, construction compa- 
nies, consumers, the European 
Investment Rank and the Euro- 
pean Commission. 

Brussels officials emphasise 
that the agencies would not be 
rigid bureaucracies. “It would be 
a different concept for each proj- 
ect,” said one official Mr Neff 


Kixmock, Britain’s new commis- 
sioner, will have to assess the 
proposals when he takes over the 
Brussels transport portfolio in 
January. In an interview last 
week, however, Mr Kinnock, a 
former leader of the Lataour 
party, expressed enthusiasm for 
the trans-European networks, 
which he said would require 
’unprecedented” levels of public 
and private finance. 


Microsoft aims service at PC users 


Continued from Page 1 

service. Already, competitors are 
alleging that this represents an 
unfair use of Microsoft's near- 
mono poly in the market for PC 
operating systems - about 85 per 
cent of all PCs sold today use 
Microsoft Windows - to limit 
competition in the on-line ser- 
vices market 

“Microsoft should show some 
restraint and not try to leverage 


its operating-system dominance,” 
Mr Steve Case, chief executive of 
America Online, said at an indus- 
try conference test week. 

Such charges come as the US 
Justice Department is scrutinis- 
ing Microsoft's recently 
announced plan to acquire Intuit, 
a developer of personal finance 
software, for Jlibn. 

However, if Microsoft can avoid 
legal barriers, it appears poised 
to expand the use of on-line com- 


puter services. Fewer than 10 per 
cent of individual PC users now 
subscribe to any on-line service, 
but industry analysts say Micro- 
soft’s entry might quickly double 
that number. 

• Mr Gates has been identified 
as the buyer of an illustrated 
manuscript by Leonardo Da 
Vinci at auction in New York last 
Friday for $30.8m - the lOth-high- 
est sum ever paid at auction for a 
work of art 


Brussels 
probes 
fraud in 
Euro-aid 
projects 

By Peter Marsh in London 


The European Commission's 
anti-fraud unit is investigating a 
series of alleged financial irregu- 
larities involving cash spent on 
projects to boost the economies 
of European Union's poorer mem- 
ber states. 

The inquiries are Likely to be 
controversial because of the gen- 
eral view in Brussels that the 
amount of fraud in its regional 
funds programme is minimal 

However, an official in the anti- 
fraud unit, Uclaf which is being 
expanded because of mounting 
political concern about the scale 
of fraud, said it was “naive" to 
think there was little or no fraud 
in the EU’s structural aids pro- 
grammes. 

Structural aid covers transport, 
industry and sewage treatment 
projects in the ElTs poorer coun- 
tries such as Spain. Portugal, the 
Republic of Ireland, Greece and 
parts of Italy. Id most cases, cash 
paid by Brussels is matched by 
s imil ar amounts from member 
governments. 

Regional-aid schemes account 
for about 25 per cent of the EU’s 
budget, but the proportion will 
rise sharply over the rest of this 
century. 

Of 90 current investigations by 
Uclat about a third involve cases 
of suspected fraud in structural 
aid projects. The rest involve 
agriculture spending, promotion 
of tourism and illicit import or 
export declarations. 

Expats believe that between 2 
per cent and 10 per cent of the 
EU’s annual Ecu70bn ($8&3bn) 
budget is wasted through fraud 
or related financial irregularities. 
Most reported fraud cases con- 
cern agriculture spending. 

The Uclaf view is that much of 
the fraud in the str uctu ral aid 
programme is hidden by the fail- 
ure of member states to report on 
where the spending is taking 
place. 

An Uclaf official said: “When a 
member government spots an 
irregular payment [in this type of 
programme] the tradition is for it 
to drop the project from the list 
of schemes being funded and 
start a new one without telling 
Brussels. We have to fight 
against this kind of practice." 

Udafs stance may be helped 
by new rules introduced in the 
summer, under which Brussels 
could tell member states that 
they will be less likely to be 
given cash if they fall to comply. 

Among the Uclaf cases involv- 
ing structural funds are several 
instances of cash apparently 
being diverted to companies or 
individuals Instead of being spent 
on training programmes. 

In other investigations, officials 
are looking at a aeries of road- 
building projects which appeared 
to lead to excessive profits for 
specific contractors. 


Eurofraud squad turns on 
the beat. Page 4 


FT WEATHER GUIDE 


Europe today 

An active tow pressure system, north of 
Scotland, will bring unsettled conditions to 
most of western Europe. The Benelux, 
England, Denmark and northern Germany wit 
have outbreaks of rain. Despite toe ran, 
temperatures will rise to 11C-15C. Poland, 
southern Norway and Sweden wifl also bare 
rain. Areas further inland may have snow. 

It wiU stay odd across Russia. The Balkan 
states will also have low temperatures and 
some areas could have Eght snow. 

Most of Prance and the Alps will have sunny 
spells. Sunny and warm conditions win prevail 
over most of Spain, Portugal and Italy. Greece 
and Turkey wiU have showers and cold 
conditions. 

Five-day forecast 

A series of low pressure systems wiD bring 
unsettled conditions to most of western, 
central and northern Europe. At first it wfll 
continue mild, but starting on Wectoesday 
temperatures wiB fall steadily. Across Spain, 
Portugal and the western Mediterranean it will 
reman sunny and mild until Thursday. South- 
eastern Europe and the eastern Mediterranean 
will have more showers. 


TODAY’S TEMPERATURES 



/ Warm hw n i A 



Maxlnum 

Being 

sun 

a 

Oaracss 

fab- 

33 

Fare 

sun 

22 


Celsius 

Bdfest 

ram 

13 

CardWf 

raft 

14 

Frankfurt 

tkzzl 

12 

Abu Dhobi 

far 

30 

Belgrade 

fra r 

9 

Casablanca 

Ml 

20 

Geneva 

fair 

12 

Accra 

cloudy 

31 

Berta 

rain 

10 

Chicago 

dowdy 

13 

Gibraltar 

sun 

20 

Algiers 

fair 

20 

Bermuda 

cloudy 

26 

Cologne 

drzzl 

14 

Glasgow 

cloudy 

14 

Amsterdam 

rain 

15 

Bogota 

cloudy 

21 

Dakar 

fair 

30 

Hanttwg 

raft 

12 

Athens 

shower 

16 

Bombay 

Ur 

33 

DaKas 

shower 

21 

Hefeftkf 

cloudy 

-1 

Atlanta 

fab- 

23 

Brussels 

drzd 

15 

DeW 

sun 

30 

Hong Kong 

cloudy 

28 

B. Aires 

sun 

32 

Budapest 

cloudy 

9 

Dubai 

SWI 

31 

Honokdu 

fair 

28 

BJiem 

rain 

15 

CJragsn 

raft 

8 

DubSn 

shower 

14 

Istanbul 

raft 

10 

Bangkok 

N it 

36 

Cato 

fair 

25 

Dubrovnik 

far 

17 

Jakarta 

shower 

31 

Barcelona 

sun 

18 

Cape Town 

far 

16 

Mrrtwgh 

rain 

14 

Jerasy 

raft 

14 


No global airline has a younger fleet. 


Lufthansa 


SRuatkm at IS GMT. Temperatures maximum for day. Forecasts by Mateo Consult at the Nethvtands 

Madid sun 18 Rangoon swi 32 

Majorca sun 2D Rsytyarit dowdy 2 

Stella sun 21 Rio thund 28 

M»ichoster rain 15 Rome sun 19 

Manila cloudy 33 S. Freco sun 10 

Melbourne shower 18 Seoul fair 12 

Mexico (Sty dowdy 23 Singapore thund 29 

Miami rath 27 Stockholm rdn 5 

MBan lair 12 Strasbourg tog 13 

Montred rdn 14 Sydney shower 23 

Moscow ■ fair -8 Tangi*- sun 21 

Munich fog 12 TdAvtv shower 22 

Karachi sun 3d Nairobi shower 25 Tokyo drzd 15 

Kuwait sun 23 Naples sun 20 Toronto cloudy 11 

L Angeles swi 22 Nassau thund 27 Vancouver raft 9 

Las Pates an 24 New York fair 17 Venice fair 13 

Lima fdr 22 Nice tair 18 Viera cloudy 10 

Lisbon an 18 Nicosia shower 18 Warsaw sleet 4 

London rain 15 Oak) rah • 5 Washington sun 20 

Luxiwirg Cloudy 11 Parti cloudy 14 WeUngton rain 15 

Lyon fair 13 Perth fair 31 WMp«g Ur 3 

Madeira fair 21 Prague cloudy 10 Zurich fair 12 


THE LEX COLUMN 


Marketing 



Should the Bank of England make the 
gilt market more investor-friendly? 
That is the central question the Trea- 
sury will have to answer in its review, 
launched last week, of the government 
debt arrangements. Traditionally, the 
Bank has run the market more to suit 
its needs than those of investors. Per- 
haps that matters little when it was a 
near-monopoly supplier of bonds to 
UK investors. But as it increasingly 
competes for funds on global markets, 
so the Bank needs to pay more atten- 
tion to meeting investor demands. 

Investors have a long list of changes 
they would like to see. The priority is 
probably the inauguration of an “open 
repo” market under which they would 
be able to borrow and lend gilts freely. 
Such a system would increase liquid- 
ity in the market and enable investors 
to go short With the Bank already 
investigating the idea, repos could be 
given the go-ahead before the Trea- 
sury review is finished. Other items 
on Investors’ wish lists include: 
streamlining the range of gilts avail- 
able so there were fewer stocks with 
greater liquidity; announcing in 
advance which stocks the Bank was to 
issue so investors would have time to 
think what they wished to buy, and 
paying interest growth, so removing 
the disadvantage gilts suffer by com- 
parison with many rival bonds. 

The Bank may think it is beneath its 
dignity to woo investors in this way. 
But taxpayers cannot be happy that 
gilts yield more than many other gov- 
ernments' bonds despite the fact (hat 
UK inflation prospects are now rela- 
tively good. It would be false to attri- 
bute all this spread to technicalities 
about how the market operates. But if 
a more investor-friendly approach 
could shave even a little off the cost of 
funding government debt, it would be 
well worth it 

German equities 

There has been a tentative reorder- 
ing of investors’ priorities in the Ger- 
man equity market Bank stocks, poor 
performers for most of 1993 and 1994, 
have recently picked up: shares in 
Deutsche Bank, for example, have- out- 
performed the market by 7 per cent 
since the beginning of October. By 
contrast cyclicals. which helped drive 
the market to its peak in May, have 
lost some of their lustre. Retailers too 
are down by 9 per cent relative to the 
market in the past month. 

These changes look like a search for 
a new direction in an equity market 
overshadowed by gloom in the bond 


Glaxo underperforms Astr* 

\V 

Share prices (rebaaed) 

180 -rrr — - V , : 



fyw nTn fcs for only 19 per cent of the US 
ulcer market, where Gtexo’s rival. Zan- 
tac drag stiff has a dear - com- 
pared with 40 per cent in the UK. 
Astra's sates will he further enhanced 


Nov 92 
Sours: FT Ctaphte- 

markets. In the case of retailers, there 
has been no recent change in funda- 
mentals, merely a heightened aware- 
ness of the poor consumer spending 
climate. But the modest shift from 
cyclicals to financials, appears 
prompted by valuation anomalies. 
Share prices of chemicals companies 
stand at a multiple of 14 times next 
year’s earnings, while those of steel 
group Thyssen are at 10 times . These 
ratings are high by historical stan- 
dards. The apposite is true for banks, 
whose shares stand on extremely low 
valuations. 

Until recently investors have been 
willing to wait patiently for the full 
upsurge in profits from cyclical com- 
panies. But the moves over the past 
month suggest that such patience ia 
wearing fhin and shareholders are 
casting around for new areas of out- 
performance. For bank shares to 
rebound strongly there will need to be 
a change of mood in the bond markets. 
Canny investors may do well to make 
the switch now. 

Astra 

Despite worldwide constraints on 
healthcare spending, there is stiU a 
bright future for pharmaceuticals com- 
panies whose research and develop- 
ment is productive. Astra, the Swedish 
drugs grotto, demonstrated as much 
last week. While most drugs groups 
are struggling to grow, Astra posted a 
24 per cent increase in earnings for 
the first nine months of the year. 

More is yet to come. Astra should 
benefit from re gaining control of dis- 
tribution rhanneis far its medicines in 
the US and Japan. This month’s $82Qm 
marketing joint-venture with Merck 
should enable the company to increase 
US sales of the ulcer drug Losec, Its 
top-selling product. The medicine 


when its second most important, prod- 
uct, asthma, drug Pulmicort, is 
approved in the US,. . . . . 

Astra’s shares are on a; prospective 
price earning s multiple for. 1995 d£j4.~ 
only a slight premium to US drags 
stocks. Yet analysts expect Astra to 
increase earnings by nearly 20 per 
iyn t a year over.the next. five years: 
That compares with, not much over JO 
per cent expected, from the US jahar : 
maceuticals sector. There are two 
te chnical reasons why the - group's 
market rating does not reflect its ftfn- 
rtamental value: Swedish institutions 
have been forced sellers because of 
rules limiting their dependence bn <me. 
stock; and US investors have -been put 
off by the lack of a US fisting. With a 
New York quote planned for early 
next year, the shares should rise. ; . 

Japanese steel • : yv.' 

Interim losses from Japan's- steel 
industry, the world’s. largest, were as 
the market exp ected: truly awfnL The 
combined losses from the top five 
steelmakers were double those of the 
same period last year, ft is a familiar 
story. Domestic demand was weak as 
mflmtfirafaiTTp g industry continued -to 
de-stock into -a mild upturn; apd the- 
benefit hW-growing sales in the US 
and Asia,' where prices have risen, Was 
wiped out by the yen’s strength. 

The best that can be said is that the 
industry is at the bottom of the cycle. 
The companies believe losses will fall 
sharply to the second half. Cost reduc- 
tions are cantinuiiig and demand from 
Japan’s car and electronic appliance 
industries fbr relatively bigh-ioarffi. 


products such as galvanised steel is 
rising: Spot prices for flat products, 
have also started to pick up. II con- 
tract prices firm, the recovery to sales 
and margins will continue into nett. 
year. 

But the reprieve will only be tempo- 
rary. Restructuring during the reces- 
sion has been cosmetic by US and 1 
even European standards. Japan still 
has excess capacity of around 20m 
tonnes on most estimates. It would be 
too much to expebik across-the-board 
capacity cats during a cyclical upturn. 
But unless the industry uses the next 
few years to reduce capacity In chroni- 
cally unprofitable commodity prod- 
ucts, the next downturn. wDl be just as 
bad as the recent on <*- • 




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Mg.uaMHMwa«g 














WE HAVE THE BRAND LEADERS 


Now we're restructured and refinanced, we can focus on 
what we do best - condoms and surgical gloves. 

With 22% of the world's branded condom market, we’re 
No.1. Our Regent Biogel surgical gloves are recognised as 
amongst the finest there are and global markets fbr these 
products are growing. 


Our technical expertise combined with over 70 yea 
experience will help us stay ahead of the competition. 

Our new management team is committed to maintahii 
this quality leadership, and to realising the value of the; 
core brands. We are confident that die progress being mat 
will provide long term growth for the group. 


London International Group pic 

Innovators in Thin Film Barrier Technology 

35 New Bridge Street, London EC4V 6SJ 


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I«w d undBti hmAMriCKui pfc 


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FINANCIAL TIMES SURVEY 



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FRENCH FINANCE AND INVESTMENT 


Monday November 14 1994 


I tis easy to understand why 
Crfdit Lyonnais, the embat- 
tled state-controlled bank- 
ing group, felt the need to give 
staff a piece of advice last 
month as they discussed with 
cnmits its legacy of past finan- 
cial problems. Maintain the 
official line, it said, “but 
always with a smile". 

A few weeks after the bank 
reported losses for the first 
half of the year of FFr4.5bn 
(£534m or $856m) on top of 1933 
losses of FFr6JJbn, fch^t s mil e 
“right finally be starting to 
seem justified. Mr Jean Peyre- 
levade. the chairman, has 
claimed that the cost of its his- 
tory of reckless loans is fi rmly 
behind it. 

In the same way, prospects 
are beginning to look up for 
the French economy as a 
whole. Observers of the French 
scene are feeling more optimis- 
tic. “All the figures are 
starting to show quite a strong 
recovery." says Mr Piers But- 
ler, head of French equity sales 
for Smith New Court 
Job creation is rising and 
other indicators such as busi- 
■ ness confidence, investment 
and consumer spending are 
looking positive. Insee, the offi- 
cial statistics agency, recently 
raised its growth forecast for 
this year to Z2 per cent and to 
3.1 per cent for 1995. 

Equally, analysts predict 
that the CAC-40, the index of 
leading quoted companies on 
the Paris Bourse, is set to start 
rising again after lan guishing 
for more than two years. Per- 
formance for smaller and more 
entrepreneurial companies 
may look more promising stiff. 

Matif. the French financial 
futures exchange, has contin- 
ued to develop new products 
and report substantially 
increased volumes in deriva- 
tive trades, much of it coming 
from business in other coun- 
tries. 

The government's privatisa- 
tion. programme has been pro- 
ceeding well, with a sharp rise 
in the number of private inves- 
tors and both personal and 
institutional over-subscription 
for shares in formerly state- 
controlled giants such as Ren- 
ault, the motor group so sym- 
bolic of the nation. 

In the wake of the success of 
the “Bahadur bonds” issued 



Jacques Chirac Qeff) declared Ms candktocy for the presidency this month, trigeering a struggle on the right against Edouard BaSadur (centre^. The socialist Jacques Deters could benefit 


IN THIS SURVEY 

□ The economy: The 
patient seems cured 

□ Profile: Edmond 
Alphanddry 

□ Insurance: still in the 

doldrums Page 2 

□ Pensions reform: 
strains start to show 

□ Banks: scars begin to 

heal Page 3 

□ Privatisation: spur to 
share ownership Page 4 

□ Financial futures: 
Matif s success Page 5 

□ Credit Agricole: for 
more than just farmers 

□ Credit Lyonnais: the 

importance of saying 
“maybe” Page 6 

Editorial production 

Gabriel Bowman 


Smiles that may be a little bit forced 


last year, take-up figures are 
looking promising for the 
FFT20bn in government bonds 
announced over the summer 
which are geared for the first 
timt> at the retail sector. 

One element of uncertainty 
likely to affect the mood of 
investors in France is the 
forthcoming presidential elec- 
tion. The race for the Elys&e 
Palace is scheduled for next 
May, although illness or politi- 
cal tactics from Mr Francois 
Mitterrand may bring the date 
forward. 

Mr Jacques Chirac, the 
mayor of Paris and head of the 
Gaul list RPR Party, became 
tiie first serious politician to 
declare his candidacy at the 
start of November. The move is 
likely to trigger a divisive 
struggle on the political right 
against Mr Edouard Balladur, 
the prime minister. 

Tins in turn may boost fur- 
ther the prospects for Mr Jac- 
ques Delors. the socialist 
whose term as president of the 
European Commission ends in 
December, and who looks 
likely, to declare his Candida- 


Prospects are starting to look up for the economy but the forthcoming 
presidential elections may affect the mood of investors and the stock 
market is yielding disappointing results, writes Andrew Jack 


tore. He is already neck-and- 
rteck with Mr Balladur in the 
polls. 

Nevertheless, Mr Edmond 
Alphand&y. economics minis- 
ter, argues that the markets 
should not be affected by the 
election because it is unlikely 
that any of these candidates 
would change the fundamental 
direction of economic policy. 
“It would be absolutely irre- 
sponsible and would damage 
their credibility to do so," he 
says. 

More generally, the future 
challenges for the French econ- 
omy are for from over. While 
there is optimism for the 
future on equities, current per- 
formance still leaves much to 
be desired with the stock mar- 
ket yielding disappointing 
results since late 1992. 

Privatisation has so for gen- 
erated some FFrlTObn for the 
French government. But the 


remaining potential candidates 
include some state-controlled 
companies - such as Caisse 
Nationale de Prevoyance, the 
insurance group, and Seita. the 
tobacco monopoly - which 
could prove far more complex 
and less remunerative to sell. 

While job creation in France 
has been rising, new job seek- 
ers and other factors wiped out 
any gains . After a temporary 
dip over the summer, the Sep- 
tember jobless figures showed 
unemployment at a record 
high of 3.35m or 12.7 per cent 
of the labour force. 

Mr Gwinn Hacche, an econo- 
mist with James Capel, says 
unemployment during reces- 
sions has been proportionately 
much higher in F rance than 
other countries and seems to 
continue to ratchet up while 
the government's investment 
in tr aining seems to have had 
little effect 


Mr Chirac has already made 
the problem of employment, 
which he said threatens the 
destruction of society, a cen- 
tral theme of his election cam - 
paign. He is reflecting a wide- 
spread fear, which is set to 
make unemployment a centre- 
point of the political debate 
over the next few months. 

r Alphandery con- 
cedes that labour mar- 
ket inflexibility is one 
of the most important chal- 
lenges for the French economy 
over the coining months. He 
rejects as “neoclassical" sug- 
gestions that the minimnm 
wage presents a problem. He 
calls instead for greater invest- 
ment in training, reform of the 
education system, and the pas- 
sible lessening of social secu- 
rity charges on companies. 

He highlights two other sig- 
nificant problems. The first is 


the budget deficit, which the 
government is forecasting at 
FFr301bn for this year and 
FFr2 75bn for 1995, or 4.6 per 
cent of GDP. Most analysts 
expect it to end up being 
nearer to 5 per cent 

The second is the funding 
shortfall of the social security 
system, which could trigger 
tax increases next year. Mr 
Alphandery says there is a 
need to reform the retirement 
system, pensions and the costs 
of health care provision. 

Pensions reform is set to be 
one of the key debates over the 
next few years. The economics 
minister does not expect any 
legislative proposals before the 
next presidential election, but 
the development of funds will 
radically change tte shape of 
the financial sector. 

French business will face a 
broader range of increasingly 
tough flhallwig ps. Deregulation 


and privatisation are introduc- 
ing more competition to the 
domestic market. The influ- 
ence of the European Union 
will also intensify. European 
court challenges to the 
restricted access to Orly air- 
port outside Paris and to state 
financial support to Air France 
are just two recent examples. 

Meanwhile, there are factors 
which will strike home in par- 
ticular business sectors. For 
instance, the hanks are likely 
to need to cut staffing consid- 
erably from current levels, in a 
delicate process to weave their 
way through employment leg- 
islation and the fear of strikes. 

Insurers will have to face up 
to the growing tensions 
between their tied agents 
around the country, and lower- 
cost alternative forms of distri- 
bution system, such as insur- 
ance by telephone, which are 
spreading rapidly across 
Europe. 

There may also be growing 
pressure on some of the more 
distinctive characteristics of 
capitalism French-style. The 
rise of the power of institu- 


tional investors accompanying 
the growth of pension hinds 
could reduce the need for the 
noyaux durs network of cross- 
shareholdings between differ- 
ent companies. 

Many are questioning the 
extent to which French state- 
controlled companies and even 
those in the private sector hold 
large equity stakes and exert 
management influence in busi- 
nesses in sectors entirely unre- 
lated to their own. For 
instance, several of the largest 
insurance companies control 
banks, the bad property loans 
of which have dragged down 
results substantially. 

Institutional pressure - from 
abroad as well as within the 
country - may also help trig- 
ger a for broader debate on cor- 
porate governance within the 
country. Traditionally many 
French companies have tended 
to be extremely hierarchical 
and run like personal fiefdoms, 
with a close-knit network of 
directors under the control of a 
single all-too- powerful chair- 
man-chief executive. 

One illustration cited by Mr 
Butler of Smith New Court is 
the feet that many French 
chief executives refer in their 
companies' annual reports to 
what “je" did and not - as they 
would in Anglo-Saxon enter- 
prises - what “we" did. 

He also highlights the con- 
tinuing and controversial role 
of the tightly- networked 
French intellectual elite in 
rotating between the boards of 
companies: individuals who 
have graduated with top aca- 
demic marks from the top col- 
leges and administrative corps, 
rather than rising through the 
ranks based on management 
ability and knowledge of their 
business. 

Meanwhile, there are still 
pressures for further reforms 
to improve the rights of minor- 
ity shareholders. In spite of 
new regulations, takeover con- 
ditions in practice seem aH too 
often to give too much power 
to dominant shareholders and 
leave little voice to their 
smaller brethren. 

While the French may be 
content as they reflect on the 
renewed expansion or the econ- 
omy, they ought perhaps to 
a dmi t that their smile is stiff 
just a little bit forced. 











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FINANCIAL TIMES MONDAY NOVEMBER 14 1994 


FRENCH FINANCE AND INVESTMENT 2 


The economy is becoming more cyclical, writes David Buchan 

The patient seems cured 


Id the end, the French wOl not 
like it But the fact that the 
French economy is becoming 
more cyclical has, for the 
moment, its pleasant upside - 
with Insee, the official stat- 
istics agency, recently raising 
its 1904 growth forecast to 2 2 
per cent and its prediction for 
1995 to above 3 per cent 

Previously paranoid that its 
estimates for 1994-95 would be 
considered influenced by the 
Imminence of presidential 
elections and therefore 
over-optimistic, the govern- 
ment was thrilled to find its 
growth predictions exceeded 
by more neutral bodies. 

Insee. for instance, has 
predicted that by next month 
the French economy will b8 
growing at a year-on-year rate 
of 3.1 per cent In its 1995 
budget, the government also 
had a figure of 3.1 per cent - 
but as average growth for the 
whole year, rather than the 
initial momentum with which 
Insee now forecasts the French 
economy will enter the 1995 
election ' year. Two other 
institutes - OFCE and COE - 
are estimating growth next 
year at 3.5 per cent and 3J2 per 
cent respectively. 

Mr Edjnond Alphandery, the 
economy minister, concludes 
that all this showed “our 
diagnosis and therapy were the 
right ones". And. indeed, the 
government deserves praise for 


not letting the gloom and doom 
of 1S93 rush it into an 
indiscriminate stimulation 
package for the economy. 
However, the government's 
wise self-restraint also 
stemmed from the yawning 
deficits of the central 
government and welfare 
system, and from the need to 
bring Hmw eventually within 
the bounds prescribed by the 
Maastricht treaty. 

The nature of the French 
recovery has now changed. 


on its internal demand piston, 
and, aptly, nowhere more 
vigorously than in the 
automobile sector. This has 
provided the big surprise, "it 
was generally expected that 
car sales would fall back afts- 
a strong second quarter,” said 
Insee in its mid-October fore- 
casting note. “Not a bit of it - 
registrations, seasonally 
corrected, have stayed at the 
same level in the summer as in 

the spring." 

But it is not just Renault and 


The economy is now beginning to fire 
more strongly on its internal demand 
piston - and nowhere more vigorously 
than m the automobile sector 


One or the factors frightening 
many French companies last 
year was that they found 
themselves holding stacks 
which were actually falling in 
price. So they started to shed 
stocks, which In turn cut 
production even further and so 
aggravated the mini-recession 
of 1993. At the start of this 
year, this destocking started to 
slow down inside France, but 
internal «te tri fln d was stDl weak 
and the main boost to growth 
came from strong external 
demand for French goods. 

But the economy is now 
beginning to fire more strongly 


Peugeot benefiting from the 
upturn. Other more humble 
leading indicators of recovery, 
such as demand for packaging 
cardboard, indicate the breadth 
of the improvement, which has 
been sustained through the 
s umme r. Output of manu- 
factures in the July-August 
period was L2 per cent higher 
than in ApriWune. And Insee 
forecasts that household 
consumption will rise by L7 
per cent in the second half of 
this year, after a 0.5 per cent 
increase in the first ball 
Psychologically, what has 
persuaded the French to dip 


into their wallets and purses 
has been the stemming, at 
least, of what had seemed an 
inexorably rising tide of 
unemployment 

According to Insee, some 

120.000 jobs were created in the 
first half of the year, and 
perhaps a total of 180,000 to 

200.000 over the whole of 1994, 
thereby slightly shortening the 
dole queues. 

Linked to this marginally 
rosier employment picture is 
the behaviour of savers. Since 
mid-1993 France’s high savings 
rate has been failing , reflecting 
either people’s belief in 

immlnpnt pay riS 8 S OT, mOTB 

likely, their relief at not 
having to keep “pre c autionary 
savings” to guard against 
immmpnt unemployment. 

After falling year an year in 
the early 1980s, like water 
cascading down a series of 
fountains. Investment is at last 
picking up and is expected to 
accelerate. For instance, OFCE 
predicts that, on an annual 
average, 1994 will see only a 0.7 
per cent growth to investment, 
but that by the end of ISM the 
level will be 5 per cent higher 
than at end-1993. 

This year’s rise in long-term 
rates would have cramped the 
investment increase, if it were 
not the fact that most French 
companies have more than 
enough wish on h and to fund 
new capital spending without 


A business sector that is still in the doldrums 

Cloud hovers over insurers 


As other sectors of French 
business begin to climb ont of 
recession, a continuing dark 
cloud hovers over many of the 
c ou ntry’s insurance companies 
- highlighted by their most 
recent gloomy results. 

"T lie first half results were 
quite disappointing, ” says Ms 
Clotllde Basseller, an analyst 
with Soctett G6n£rale in Paris. 
"Hie real estate crisis had a 
strong effort: and caused the 
insurers to make huge provi- 
sions.” 

A large part of these 
propert y losses have nothing 
to do with direct investment 
as part of the insurers’ 
portfolios, however. They 
reflect instead a historical 
legacy, with companies such 
as GAN, DAP and AGF 
controlling banks which, in 
turn, have heavy o ntsi y priing 
mortgage C QllUBit BlilflL 

One vivid example was 
GAN. The group reported 
losses of FFr840m in the six 
months to June 30. Yet this 
was primarily result of provi- 
sions against Union Indos- 
trielle de Credit, which 
reported losses of FFr9 25m 
alongside agreeing a restruct- 
uring which included ring- 
fendng its FFrl&9bn property 
portfolio. 

"The insurance companies 
were till very recently state- 
owned and many of the busi- 
nesses they acquired were as a 
result of state pressure and 
were not part of their core 
strategies,” says one analyst 
Divestment from this 
approach may prove one of the 
most significant challenges for 
the sector. 

However, while tUs process 
of empire building in domestic 
activities has perhaps already 
began to fade with the priva- 
tisation of groups such as 
UAP, international ambitions 
remain at the forefront of 
many of the companies. 

Take Mr Jacques Friedman, 
head of UAP, who goes to 
China at the end of this month 


to prepare the way for a repre- 
sentative office in Beijing for 
his company- Tm convinced 
that within the next three to 
15 years - no-one can say 
when - that there will be a 
very Important increase in 
insurance in Asia,” he says. 

Mr Claude Bdbdar, head of 
Axa, says; "Business is becom- 
ing more global and the mar- 
ket more concentrated. I need 
to be a big business myself to 
compete.” For him too, China 
and India represent vital mar- 
kets for the next century. 

Axa is just (me of several 
companies which is equally 


agents as a barrier to entry to 
the market,” says Mr Dawson. 
“Paradoxically, they have also 
become a barrier to exit” 
Agents can act as a pow erf ul 
lobby to prevent any commer- 
cially-j ostiflable increase In 
premiums that may lose them 
business to their competitors, 
for example. 

The cost and oh si r u c tiven egg 
of the agents helped explain 
why a number of mutuals - 
witii their own sales staff with 
low, fixed costs and an ability 
to screen potential clients 
effectively - have been able to 
do so well in the market Hie 


For many years, insurance sales have 
been dominated by a network of tied 
sales agents protected by law. 
These are now increasingly 
becoming a burden 


busy scrutinising markets 
more close to home. It just 
announced a $10m joint ven- 
ture in Turkey and - like UAP 
- has an eye on Increasing its 
non-life business in the UK. 

However, Mr Thn Dawson, 
an insurance analyst with Leh- 
man Brothers in London, says: 
“I have yet to see much evi- 
dence of European insurance 
companies becoming serious 
profit- and shareholder-ori- 
ented organisations. They 
dilute their intrinsic worth 
with acquisitions outside the 
home market I would like to 
see them not thinking about 
being number one in Europe 
but aiming instead for a 15 per 
cent return on equity." 

Another highly significant 
structural problem for the 
French insurance industry to 
resolve relates to its distribu- 
tion network. For many years, 
insurance sales have been 
dominated by a ne twork of 
tied sales agents protected by 
law. These are now increas- 
ingly becoming a harden. 

“People always talked about 


effect was painful, with GAN, 
for example, cutting premiums 
heavily to gain market share - 
but more recently reaping the 
costs. "There has been crazy 
competition because of the 
mutuals,” says Mr Claude Ten- 
dll, director general of Axa. 

Now there are now new chal- 
lenges as wefl. The first Is ban- 
cassurance, with many of the 
banks now dominating the 
market for the sale of individ- 
ual life assurance. “There has 
been very hard competition 
with the banks on life assur- 
ance for individuals," says 
UAP*s Mr Friedman. He adds 
that more complex non-life 
products require more experi- 
ence of claims records and 
remain more the preserve of 
insurers. 

Equally, there is the growth 
of telephone insurance 
operations. Compared to other 
parts of Europe - notably the 
UK with its widely-copied 
Direct line innovator - France 
remains underdeveloped. Thus 
AGF now has a highly success- 
fill direct car insurance arm in 


Spain but no equivalent in 
France. Axa has begun experi- 
menting with a service in 
France, but only under a dif- 
ferent name, and an attempt to 
keep it low profile to avoid 
tensions with its agents. 

On the other hand, insurers 
also have great opportunities, 
life assurance sales continue 
to boom, which analysts put 
down to the demand for 
long-term savings products in 
the absence of a developed pri- 
vate pensions industry. It is 
tills which is likely to prove 
one of the most important bat- 
tlegrounds in the coming 
years as the industry develops 
and insurers fight over it with 
banks and other financial 
institutions. 

The risk, according to Mr 
Dawson, is that the govern- 
ment may play off pensions 
reform against other revenue 
generators. There have period- 
ically been discussions about 
removing the existing tax 
exemption for investment 
income on policies more than 
eight years old, for example. 

Over the next few months, 
observers of the insurance 
scene also have two other 
important events to track: the 
scheduled privatisations of 
both CNP and AGF. 

Mention of CNF in particu- 
lar causes many rivals to 
grind their teeth. It has a vir- 
tual monopoly of life assur- 
ance sales through post 
offices, tax offices and state 
deposit bureaux. But current 
discussions in the run-up to 
the share sales could remove 
tills network, leaving the com- 
pany with next to no goodwill. 

Meanwhile, Ms Basseller 
argues that insurers may have 
to get used to fundamental 
changes such as a drop In capi- 
tal gains. But she remains rel- 
atively optimistic. “We are 
expecting 1996 and 1997 
results to reach more normal 
levels," she says. 

Andrew Jack 


Why is France so attractive to international investors ? 


France has enjoyed spectacular growth in international 
direct investment over the last decade. Worth $21 billion in 
1980, total accumulated levels now stand at a full S 1 1 1 bfllion. 
This fivefold increase, higher than either the SJ.S/s or Britain's, 
ranks France ore of the most attractive countries in Europe 
for international investors. 

The world s fourth largest economy has many strengths : 
a strategic location in the European market, a remarkable 
choice of sites, and ultra-modern transport and telecom- 
munications networks are but a few of them. 


More importantly, Fiance has made significant and 
continuous efforts to create the land of pro-business climate 
sought by international investors everywhere. France’s 
regulatory environment is one of the most liberal for foreign 
companies. Its labour and energy costs are highly competitive. 
The corporate tax rate is among the lowest in Europe, 

As Ambassador at large for international investment, 
1 am c ommitte d to ensuring that investors receive the highest 
attention. My team and I will be happy to assist you. 

Cafi me at (33)144 87 702!. 


MIMSTfeRE DE L’£cONOMIK 

139 rue de Bercy - Teledoc 534 
75572 Paris Cede* 12 France 
Tel. : (53) I 44 87 70 21 
Fax. : 133) l 44 87 70 26 


Jean-Damel Tordjman 
Ambassador at Large 
for International 
Investment 



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the bank manager's help. But 
some experts cast doubt on the 
duration of this recovery in 
Investment - forecast to 
Increase by 7-9 per cent In 1995. 

Another worry for the 
medium-term future fa, of 
course, the budget deficit, 
which tiie government intends 
to rein in to FFr275bn next 
year or 4J3 per emit of gross 
domestic product, but which 


most analysts expect will turn 
out nearer 5 per cent 
In addition to the central 
government budget there fa 
also chronic shortfall to 
the social security system, 
which leads a large number of 
observers to predict tax 
increases after the May 1995 
presidential election. These 
will probably take the form of 
a rise in the so-called 


contribution sodale g6n6raUs&, 
a tax levied on an forms of 
income (earned and unearned) 
and more and more necessary 
to balance all the loopholes in 
tbs income tax system. 

But apart from these 
longer-term shadows, the sky 
is reasonably clear over the 
French economy, with one 
exception . - the persistent 
clouds over French, financial 


markets which have seen 2 A 
percentage points added to 
long-term rates this year and 
some 15 per cent shaved off the 
. Bourse's 259oampany index. 

There fa just an outside 
dan ger that further trouble on 
the markets could hurt the real 
economy; a further fall in 
equities would make people 
feel poorer, with knock-on 
effects on the p r o p erty market. 


Profile: EDMOND ALPHANDERY 


French way of doing things 


Mr Edmond Alphandery, the 
F rench economics minister, is 
no stranger to foreign lands - 
bat he remains convinced that 
his country’s way of doing 

thing s has m ndi to n mranarni 

it 

Formerly a professor of eco- 
nomics and a graduate of the 
Institute for Political Studies 
in Paris, he also attended both 
the universities of Chicago and 
Berkeley. 

At a breakfast meeting last 
week at Bercy, tiie modernistic 

h WM VpmTtBrs Of ffltn fadry of 

finance and economic affairs, 
he was in a reflective mood 
about the distinctive French 
approach after a busy travel 
schedule to other countries. 

"There is a difference in per 
caption between the strength 
of French economy and how it 
fa perceived overseas,” he says. 
He points to sustained growth 
in tiie last few months. *Tm 
very confident of the prospects 
for tiie economy." 

He adds: “The momentum 
has been maintained in the 
second half of the year. People 
thought it might slow down 
but it hasn’t Consump tion has 
taken up the baton, particu- 
larly in consumer durables, 
and the last motor of the econ- 


omy - investment - is now 
firing. Even «w«ll and medi- 
um-sized companies are more 
optimistic.” 

One of the distinctive ele- 
ments of the French appr oach - 
to economic management is 
the way It has tackled privati- 
sation. He says tiie experience 
has been favourable compared 
to other countries, "many of 
which have been a failure”. 


big." Hie the 1982 national- 
isation law in France "archaic 
and astonishing for an indus- 
trial modem economy at that 
time." 

Mr Alphandery defends what 
he calls the noyaux stable or 
the idea of a core group of 
long-term shareholders as part 
of the success of French priva- 
tisation. "It fa sometimes critic- 
ised by other countries, but it 


The economics minister explains his 
government’s distinctive approach towards 
economic management to Andrew Jack 


Most recently, he points to 
the partial privatisation of 
Renault, which was more than 
15 times over-subscribed by 
institutions and has also 
received a high level of 
demand from private investors. 
He points out that the state 
has so far raised a total of 
FFrl03hn from sales. 

But he stresses that “yon 
don’t judge the success of a 
privatisation simply by tiie 
number of subscribers.” He 
says the objective has instead 
been primarily to disengage 
the state from business activi- 
ties. “The public sector is too 


has proved flexible and supple 
- an e ffecti ve way to let com- 
panies pass smoothly into the 
private sector.” 

He also highlights other dis- 
tinctive French approaches to 
the process: the idea of an 
independent privatisation com- 
mission to select advisers and 
make decisions about the safe 
of state assets, transparency 
and the scope for employees to 
become shareholders. “Privati- 
sation is an art and very com- 
p heated,” he says. "We have 
the savoir-faire." 

Looking forward, he says 
that no derision has yet been 


taken on whether to proceed 
with the sale of Setta, the state- 
controlled tobacco monopoly 
which sells Gttanes and Gau- 
lofaes, and for which the 
search has now begun for an 
ad visa - to consider the possi- 
bility -of a sale. 

He says that Assurances 
Generates de France, the insur- 
ance group, will be next in line 
to offer shares to the public. "It 
win be sold as soon as possible 
depending on market condi- 
tions,” he says. "There are no 
particular obstacles." 

Mr Aiphandfiry argues that 
there are four principal chal- 
lenges for the French economy. 
The first is the amelioration of 
unemployment. “There is 
insufficient flexibility in the 
labour market,” he says. 
"Many measures need to he 
taken.” 

He highlights the role of pro- 
fessional tr ain i ng , particularly 
within companies, and argues 
that there is “a lot of room for 
manoeuvre” in reducing the 
social security taxes paid by 
companies. He is less con- 
vinced that the wHwinumi wage 
is a real problem. 

His second challenge is the 

Continued on opposite page 


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FRENCH FINANCE AND INVESTMENT 3 


PENSIONS REFORM 


Strains start to show 


For French finan cial markets, 
there a re few issues more 
““Portent over the next few 
decades, or more sensitive, 
than the ftrtnre of the coun- 
try's pensions system. 

The burden of an ageing 
population is placing a strain 
on the present pay-as-you-go 
system, whereby the pensions 
of today's retirees are paid by 
contributions from the active 
workforce. Reform of the sys- 
tem, and the possible creation 
of ca pitalised pension funds, 
promise a significant boost to 
the French stock market, the 
venture capital industry aud 
to long-term savings. The 
implications are profound, 
ranging from improved financ- 
mg for industry, to the reshap- 
ing of France’s brand of capi- 
talism. 

The problem is that r e form 
also promises a welter of com- 
plications, from opposition 
from trade union groups to 
disputes between banks 
insurance companies about 
bow new schemes should be 
structured, and to the govern- 
ment’s concern not to stifle 
consumption. As a result, the 
centre-right administration is 
treading cautiously on tbe 
issue. Legislation on tbe pen- 
sion fund reform, due origi- 
nally in the first half of this 
year, and then this a n fa imn, 
now appears unlikely before 
next spring’s presidential elec- 
tions. 

The needs of France’s social 
security system, however, and 
of its financial markets, sug- 
gest that some steps will have 
to be taken. “At the end of the 
day we need capitalised pen- 
sion products to help 
strengthen our financial sys- 
tem and to respond to demo- 
graphic pressures,” says Mr 
Alain Leclair, deputy presi- 
dent of asset managwiwnf at 
Banque Paribas. 

The demographic pressures 
are clear. France’s ageing pop- 
ulation means that the propor- 
tion of over-60s will increase 
from about 20 per emit of the 
population today to about 27 
per cent in 2020 and one- third 
in 2050. “This may seem like a 
long-term problem, but the 
younger generation are 
already finding It bard to 
finance the retirement of the 
older,” says an executive at 
one French Insurance com- 
pany- 

The strains have prompted a 
series of reforms to the east- 
ing system. Mrs Simone VeD, 
the minister for social affairs, 
has eased the burden on the 
pay-as-you-go scheme by 
extending the period of contri- 
butions from 37.5 years to 40 
years and increasing the num- 
ber of best-paid years on 
which pension payments are 
calculated, hence reducing tbe 
average. 

Separately, Mr Alain Made- 
lln, the minister for enter- 
prises and economic develop- 
ment, has introduced a reform 
which provides tax incentives 
for artisans and independent 
workers who invest in private 
pension schemes. The law, 
passed through parliament in 
the summer, has recently 
taken effect 

Mrs Veil's measures have 
already bad an impact The 
deficit under the existing sys- 
tem seemed set to reach about 
FFr300bn by the year 2020,” 
says one pensions expert at a 
French merchant bank. “It 
now seems more likely to be in 



Simone Weft her measures have 
cut pensions deficit 



Main Madeftc ties introduced tax 
incentives for sag-employed 

the region of FFrlOObn by that 
date.” 

It is still, however, a big 
gap. Proponents of pensions 
reform argue that the case for 
the creation of capitalised pen- 
sion funds is farther but- 
tressed by the potential bene- 
fits to industry end financial 
markets. 

Tbe Patronat employers’ fed- 
eration, for example, is urging 
the creation of pension funds 
which can be managed by the 
companies, themselves and 
used to buttress their balance 
sheets. Mr Jacques Barrot, 
c hairman of the finance com- 
mittee in the national assem- 
bly and a champion of pen- 
sions reform, recommends that 
banka, insurance companies 
and individual businesses 
should get incentives to estab- 
lish pension fluids and that at 
least half of employee contri- 
butions should be invested In 
their own companies. 

The French government has 
itself emphasised the potential 
benefits of reform. Mr Edmond 
Alphandlry, the economy min- 
ister, has claimed that the 
development of capitalised 
pension funds would represent 
a significant boost for the 
Paris Bouse. “As long as 
important privatisations are in 
the pipeline, we need fluids 
that have a majority of their 
holdings in shares," he said. 

Same industry observers see 
the potential for a further 
important change in French 
capitalism. By creating power 
ful pension funds, like those in 
Britain and the US. French 
companies would be less 
dependent on cross-sharehold- 
ings with other bad n esse s in 
their search for stable inves- 
tors. “Obviously such a change 
does not take place over- 
night,” says one analyst at a 
securities company in Paris. 
“But pension tends could pro- 
vide the answer to the peren- 
nial French problem of capital- 
ism without capital.” 


f Four principal 
challenges 


Continued from previous page 

social security system. He says 
France must do more to modify 
the existing retirement system 
reform pensions and 
cut health care expenditure. 
He stresses “an important first 
step” through the tax reforms 
over the summer which 
encourage private pension 
schemes for artisans and indo- 
pendent workers. 

“The big problem is to 
develop a pension scheme for 
workers,” he says. *Tfs_a big 
problem for French society. I 
am c on fident in the months to 
come that there will be legisla- 
tion but it would be a hit hur- 
ried before the presidential 
election.” 

His third challenge -■ which 
he stresses is far from unique 


to France - is to tackle 
national training and the edu- 
cation system, which he says 
are still too centralised. “There 
is a lot to do.” 

That leaves an important 
fourth challeng e- to continue 
efforts to reduce the budget 
deficit, which has a current 
target of FFr301bn for the end 
of this year and FFr275bn for 
next year. 

In the run-up to next May’s 
presidential elections, he is 
aisn keen to reassure the finan- 
cial markets. He does not 
believe there is any significant 
difference between the princi- 
pal candidates on economic 
matters- Any divergence from 
the current approach would, he 
argues, "he absolutely irre- 
sponsible and damage their 
credibflfty”. 


ri 


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The government’s willing- 
ness to act and the prospects 
for the various proposals 
hinge on political consider- 
ations. Reform of the pension 
system is a sensitive subject 
and with presidential elections 
less than seven months away, 
tbe administration is now 
demonstrating caution. 

French trade unions, which 
are represented in the manage- 
ment of the existing system, 
oppose reform. “It is a policy 
that would benefit the rich. It 
is they who can afford to pay 
for a supplementary scheme 
and get tbe tax deductions to 
do so,” says an official at the 
Confederation G£n£rale dn 
Travial, the communist-led 
union organisation. 

Mr Marc Bloudel, the gen- 
eral secretary of Force Ouv- 
rifere, a more moderate union, 
advances both social and eco- 
nomic arguments the 

formation of capitalised pen- 
sion funds. “Reform would rod 
the solidarity between age 
groups and social classes ... it 
would put a brake on eco- 
nomic recovery,” he says, 
pointing to tbe dampening 
effects it might have on con- 
sumption. 

For most observers, tbe sen- 
sitivity of the subject and the 
potentially complex nature of 
reforms suggest that reforms 
must await the presidential 
polls. “The idea may appear to 
have lost some of its urgency,” 
says one insurance executive. 
“But it is a vital issue which 
cannot be put into retire- 
ment.” 

John Ridding 


After the difficulties of the past few months, prospects are brighter, says Andrew Jack 

The banks’ scars begin to heal 


After the storm, the calm. 
Prospects axe beginning to 
improve for French banks as 
they digest the difficulties of 
the last few months and raise 
their eyes to look towards the 
rather hazy future ahead. 

It has not been an easy tune 
for the sector. The latest set of 
results in the last few weeks 
still show some of the scars 
caused by turmoil in the cap- 
ital markets and the overhang 
of enormous p rop er ty and bad 
debt provisions following 
extravagant lending turned 
sour. 

One of the low points of 1994 
- without which no com- 
mentary on the sector would 
be complete - refers to the 
continuing saga of Credit 
Lyonnais, tbe embattled 
state-control! ed hanMng group, 
which has been hit by one 
piece of bad publicity after 
another. 

Its rival banks - many now 
in the private sector - have 
looked on with some annoy- 
ance at the additional state 
support provided without 
much evidence so far of a 
particularly aggressive 
strategy to sell any of the more 
profitable or core parts of the 
bank. 

However, most grudgingly 
admit that Mr Jean Peyrel- 
evade, the chairman appointed 
by the state last November in 
place of Mr Jean-Yves Haberer, 
has played a shrewd political 
gamp in his e ff o rts to nurse the 
bank towards recovery. 

In a battle that became 
public at toe end of September 
this year, the bank was forced 
to delay publication of its 


ha lf-year results as a dispute 
raged between its directors, the 
auditors, the treasury and the 
banking commission over the 
size of provisions necessary to 
cover past losses. 

It finally reported losses of 
FFr4.5bn for the first six 
months of the year, and an 
additional FFrlO.lbn in 
provisions - on top of losses 
for 1993 announced in March of 
FFr6.9bn, a ring-fenced 
property portfolio of FFWfibn 

underwritten 

by the state, 
and a 

recapitalisation 
over the 
summer. 

Substantial 
further provi- 
sions are 
likely, and - 
while stressing 
that everything 
must done in 
tbe right order, starting with a 
detailed justification of the pro- 
visions that will be necessary 
- the government seems set 
ultimately to provide the sup- 
port to keep the bank solvent 
That has helped start to boost 
the price of its non-voting cem'- 
fiazts d'irwestissement, its only 
traded shares, albeit from a 
record low. 

Elsewhere across the sector, 
analysts are more confident. 
“The first half figures have got 
the banks off to a nice begin- 
ning,” says Ms Sheila Garrard, 
an analyst with Lehman 
Brothers in London. “Their 
two big problems were real 
estate lending and the small 
an d medium-sized companies.” 

She argues that “things have 


stopped getting any worse" 
regarding provisions, while 
economic recovery In France 
should begin to make loans to 
companies more stable again 
from the start of next year. 

Mr Jean Sassus, an analyst 
with Societe General e in Paris, 
says: “Things are not bad at 
alL European banks have not 
suffered from the drop people 
expected because of the decline 
in capital markets business." 

The primary reason, he 


One battle that the banks seem to have 
won is for the sale of life assurance. 
Their customer base and wide retail 
network has allowed them to dominate 
the market in the face of competition 
from the insurance companies when 
handling a simple savings product 


argues, is that most banks 
“dramatically over-provided” 
in 1993 on their loan losses. 
They were than able to feed 
back the provisions against 
their capital markets activities, 
which inevitably dropped back 
this year after an extremely 
profitable but exceptional pre- 
vious few months. 

“One of the advantages of 
universal hanWng is that you 
canno t lose at the same firm* in 
every business. The investor is 
quite sure they will get a divi- 
dend,” he says. 

One outstanding challenge 
for the banks is to continue to 
cut costs - particularly 
through staffing reductions. 
Unlike the dramatic job losses 
in a short period in the UK and 


US, in France the process has 
been moderated by sensitivi- 
ties to unions and employment 

But reducing costs is not the 
only challenge. “The big ques- 
tion-mark is: where is tbe reve- 
nue going to come from?” says 
Ms Garrard. “It’s much 
tougher and there is no obvi- 
ous area that the banks can 
develop that they are not work- 
ing on already.” 

One battle that the banks 

seem to have 

won is for tbe 
sale of life 
assurance . 
Their existing 
customer base 
and wide retail 
network has 
allowed them 
to dominate 
the market in 
the face or com- 
petition from 
the insurance companies when 
handling effectively a simple 
savings product 

This diversification of activ- 
ity is set to continue, with 
international growth and capi- 
tal markets expansion being 
high up the list Credit Lyon- 
nais, for example, remains 
committed to the high-cost, 
long-term strategy of building 
a strong retail branch network 
across Europe. 

Mr Sassus says the future for 
banks Hag in the pro vision of 
more value-added services 
such as asset management, 
capital markets and possibly a 
battle for control of pension 
funds as the French industry 
begins to develop over the next 
few years. 


Certainly Mr Marc Vidnot, 
head of Sodett Gdndrale. says: 
“I am personally totally 
convinced about the role of 
capital markets. Derivatives 
will continue to develop with 
or without international 
supervision.” 

Equally, Bis Garrard sees tbe 
scope for greater packaging of 
financial products, with hanks 
beginning to start charging 
more systematically for ser- 
vices provided to customers. 

Meanwhile, banks need to 
face changes to tbe distribu- 
tion systems of their products. 
In late September. Paribas 
launched a telephone banking 
service amid much publicity, 
modelled along the faw of the 
success of the similar provision 
in the UK. 

This may herald an impor- 
tant trend for the future, 
although rival banks have 
been kero to point out the exis- 
tence of their own longstand- 
ing equivalents - not least the 
services accessible through 
Mini tel, the computer informa- 
tion network available by 
phone to every French house- 
hold. 

More controversially, Mr Sas- 
sus suggests there is still scope 
for reform of current French 
legislation, which prevents 
banks paying interest on cur- 
rent accounts. The traditional 
fear has been that this may 
cause inflationary pressure, 
and that the corresponding 
increase in charges on 
accounts will act against the 
interests of customers on lower 
incomes. “That really would 
change the banking land- 
scape,” he says. 


DEBT 


REPAYMENT 



At last, a curve that's 
heading the right way 

This curve shows the evolution of EDF’s debt. 

Having successfully completed an ambitious power plant 
construction program , Electricity de France f EOF) is now 
reaping the benefits of its investments. Strong sales and 
productivity gains are generating substantial cash flow , 
enabling EDF to play down its debt and cut its interest costs. 

By reducing its debt burden. EDF is laying the groundwork 
for ils future. 


SOURCES OF FUNDS 
OVER 30 YEARS (in %) 
Internal cash generation HI 
State funding = 
Borrowing 



1963 


1973 


EDF, a pouter in finance* 


Qectricrte 
de France 






FRENCH FINANCE AND INVESTMENT 4 


T he bureaucrats at 
Bercy, the economics 
and finance ministry 
in eastern Paris, have 
reason to be satisfied with the 
progress of the French 
government's ambitious 
privatisation programme. 

Since Banque Nationals de 
Paris was dispatched to the 
private sector in the autumn of 
last year, the plan to sell all or 
part of 21 public sector groups 
has advanced smoothly. Bhdne 
Poulenc, the chemicals group, 
£3f Aquitaine, the oil company, 
and Union des Assurances de 
Paris, the insurer, have 
followed BNP into private 
hands, netting the state a cool 
FFr94.4bn In receipts. 

The successful start to the 
programme has important 
implications. In addition to 
boosting the government’s 
coffers - a vital element in its 
budget deficit reduction 
strategy - the sales of state 
companies have also spurred 
private share ownership. A 
survey sponsored by the Bank 
of France and the COB, the 
stock exchange watchdog, 
shows that privatisations have 
pushed the number of private 
shareholders In France from 
45m in 1992 to 5.7m this year. 

The revenues, and public 
interest, are set to continue - 
for the time being at least The 
partial privatisation of 
Renault, one of the state's 
most attractive assets, is 
nearing completion. Aimed at 
the public, the sale of almost 
40 per cent of the capital of the 
motor group is expected 
further to boost popular share 
ownership. In so doing, it 
should bring the government a 
further FFr8bn or so In 
receipts. 

After Renault, however, the 
process of privatisation is 
likely to become more delicate, 
and more complex. For 1995, as 
for this year, the government 
has set a target of FFr55bn for 
privatisation receipts. But with 
many of the more attractive 
assets already sold, and with 
the stock market in the 
doldrums, it faces a challenge 
in maintaining the momentum 
of its privatisation drive. 

Mr Edmond Alpband&ry, the 
economics minister, is taking 
steps to prepare the next candi- 
dates for sale. He has launched 
tile process of selecting adviser 
banks for the privatisation of 
Seita, the state tobacco monop- 
oly which manufactures such 
famous brands as Gitanes and 
Gauloises. 

Two insurance groups. 
Assurance Gdn6rales de 
France, and Caisse Nationale 


i-:- 

B it 









M Ete gg i P 

IE — ’TUI r 

>1 




The Banque NaSonale de Pam on the Boulevard dm ttaBens ***» **»<ood Edmond AtphamUcy. finance minister (right) and Wehal Pebereou of BW* ska* privatisation documents feat year 

John Ridding looks at the progress of the government’s ambitious programme «™“* 


Privatisation spurs share ownership 


Government receipts from privatisation 


Company 

Year of 

Amount 

privatised 

privatisation 

(FFr bn) 

BNP 

1993 

27.9 

Rhone-Poufenc 

1993 

13.6 

Bf 

1994 

34.9 

UAP 

1994 

18.7 

Total 


94.4 

Source: Financial Tins 


de Prevoyance, are both 
primed for sale, although the 
latter is expected to remain 
majority controlled by the 
French state. 

The minister has said that he 
is keen to privatise AGF as 
soon as possible. But the opera- 
tion is complicated by the 
sharp fall in insurance shares 
this year which has resulted 
from the decline in bond prices 
and the consequent impact on 
the portfolios of insurance 
groups. AGF, for example, has 
seen its share price fumble by 
more than 35 per cent since the 
beginning of January. 

For the French government 


this poses a dflumm*. “They 
want to sell AGF, but cannot 
be seen to flogging off the sO- 
verware too cheaply.” says one 
Industry observer. The partial 
privatisation of CNP is simi- 
larly affected by the depressed 
state of the insurance sector. 

Such considerations help 
explain the moves to prepare 
for a sale of Seita. But in. terms 
of revenues, it is a less lucra- 
tive operation. The expected 
receipts from the sale of the 
tobacco group, however, which 
are estimated at about FFrtbn, 
pale beside the FFr20 bn which 
could come from selling the 
government’s 65 per cent hold- 


ing in AGF and the receipts 
from the first batch of privati- 
sations. Elf alone brought 
FFr35bn to the state's coffers. 

Beyond the immediate candi- 
dates. there are also complica- 
tions. Many of the larger com- 
panies left in the state’s 
corporate portfolio are in need 
of significant restructuring 
before they can be offered to 
private investors. Credit Lyon- 
nais and Air France, for exam- 
ple. continue to incur substan- 
tial losses. [Jsinor Sacilor, 
Europe’s largest steel pro- 
ducer, has burst back into the 
black after a net deficit of 
FFr5.7hn last year, but must 
still reduce its debt burden of 
FFr20bn before it can be sold. 

An added headache as the 
government ponders the next 
steps in its privatisation pro- 
gramme relates to the weak- 
ness of the stock market The 
decline in insurance shares, 
although dramatic, comes 
against a background of 
depression on the Paris bourse. 
The CAC 40 index of leading 
shares has fallen by about 20 
per cent this year as interest 


The 21 companies on the privatisation list 


Company Sector 

Adrospatarie Aerospace 

Air France Airline 

Banque Hennrt Bank 

Banque Nationale da Paris Bank 

Catese Cetrtralo de HMjj g nw Insurance 

Caisse Natfonafe de Prevoyance (3) Insurance FFr64.3brt net profit FFr?.26bn 4£L5 par cent 
Qroupe BuN Computers FFr2&25bn net loss FFrSJJ7bn 72 per cent 

Cle G6n4rata Maritime Transport n/a n/a 100 per cent 

Cr&ft Lyonnais Bank n/a net loss FFrfLSbn 52.51 per cent 

PecMney Ajumjnjum, packaging FFr63.03fan net loss FFr880m 55.7 par cent 

Renault Vehicles FFr169.79bn net profit FR1.G7bn 80 par cent ft) 

Rhdne Poulenc Chemicals FFrB0.56bn net profit FFr962m privatised autumn 1983 

Assurances Generates de France (2) Insurance n/a net profit FFr977m 65.5 per cent . 

GAN Insurance n/a net profi t FFr414m 79.4 per cent 

Union des Asswances de Paris Insurance n/a net profit Fft1.42bn privatised 1994 

Seita Tobacco, cigarettes FFt14.14bn net profit FFrS85m 100 per cent 

Soctete M a raaOaise da Credit Bank n/a n/a 100 per cent 

Snecma Aerospace engines FFr1957bn net loss FFr804m 97 per cant 

Bf Aquitaine OB FFr210bn net profit FFrl.Ibn privatised 1994 

Thomson Sectroracs n/a n/a 75J1 per cent 

Uetnor Sadnor Steal FFr75. 4bn net loss H=rS.8bn 80 per cent 

UTMM Sana. tute aftaady pnvaltaad ■ Mnh 1983 p) Tba amn', BO% mfcg In Bang* b bahg reduced to S0J1 W by ■ pmtU prt mO malo n. 
(UTinmiJ for pivataailon. QBlnfl (wpovd lor pankl p, itemii Tmmrir ITwr* fttYirr) nflfii rnrniij inf rVanrr Sir rm r pi> 4 n> 


Percentage of caplM 

held by atatat 


net loss FFrl.4Zbn 73 J per cent 

net loss FFr6. 48bn 995 per cant i 

net loss FPrl.2ton 735 par cent 
net profit FFr1.Q2bn privatised autumn 1993 
100 percent i 


FFr50. 8bn net lose FFn.42bn 

FFr55.16bn net loss FR&48bn 

n/a net toss FFr1.2bn 

n/a net profit FFrt.02bn 

n/a 

FFr64.3bn net profit FFrl.26bn 

FFr28^5bn net toss FFrS57bn 

n/a n/a 

rtfa net toss FFrfL9bn 

FFrB3U3bn net Iobb FFrBSOm 

FFr169.79bn net profit FFr1.07bn 
FFr90.56bn net profit FFr962m 

n/a net profit FFr977m 
n/a net profit FFr414m 

n/a rat profit FFf1.42bn 

FFr14.14bn net profit FR585m 

n/a n/a 

FFr1957bn net loss FFr804m 
FFr2 10bn net profit FFrl.Ibn 

n/a n/s 

FFr75. 4bn net loss FR5.8bn 


425 percent 
72 per cent 
100 per cent 
5251 percent 
55.7 par cent 


rates have headed upwards. As 
a consequence, all of the priva- 
tisation issues, with the excep- 
tion of BNP. are trading below 
their issue price. 


“The decline in share prices 
is likely to dampen investor 
enthusiasm for new issues.” 
says one Paris stockbroker. 
“There are many competing 


alternatives for their savings 
which they may find more 
a ttract iv e." One such, is a new 
scheme which allows individu- 
als to boy directly 10-year gov- 


ernment bonds.- With yidds ef 
about 7.5 per cent, they are 
proving highly popular. ; „ 

Despite these various chal- 
lenges, however, the govern- 
ment is optimistic about tie 
future prospects for its privati- 
sation plans. Officials eite the 
strong demand that the issues 
have received from individual, 
institutional and industrial 
investors and claim that the 
weakness of the stock market 
raises the prospect of a strong 
upswing and hence increased 
incentives for investors. 

They add that the rec o very 
in the French economy, which 
has revived much more 
dynamically than forecast and 
is due to grow by 3J. per cent 
next year, should ease the pro- 
cess of restructuring fin: many 
of the privatisation candidates. 
“We wifi get them in shape for 
sale,” says me official at the 
industry ministry. "Look at 
how Renault was transformed 
from a big loss-maker over 
recent years.” 

Such transformations, how- 
ever, take time. The ability of 
many of the lama ducks of the 
public sector to turn them- 
selves into swans, and the 
course of the french and inter- 
national financial markets 
over the next few months, will 
determine whether the govern- 
ment has enough, time to 
achieve its privatisation objec- 
tives. 


W 




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jac* 


The 


Matif 


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FINANCIAX. TIMES MONDAY NOVEMBER 14 1994 


FRENCH FINANCE AND INVESTMENT 5 


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t.'->>3SSl 

MaW de^fs trade in such Innovative products as rapeseed futures and (right) a view of the new tradtng floor, which opened this autumn 

Andrew Jack talks to the chairman of the financial futures exchange 

The Matif success story 




Gdrard PhuiwadeL- no re a so n to 
Mush over assets 



E. 


; :^V J? ® Mafctt, the French fiwanrial 

: futures exchange, was a quoted 

-J- company, its shares would 

- have been unlikely to have 

S'~ ’ suffered as much as many an 
the malaise-ridden, national 
77 markets over the last few 

• • -f . months. 

The marchfi k terme 
~"fy ■ ■ international de France (Matif) 
began operating in February 
~ :Z ~ i: 1S86, the result of a law passed 
7 -. 4 : in the previous year as part of 
-■ a wide-ranging series of 
liberalisation measures 
" zu* designed to modernise the 
French capital markets. 

•“iM. : During 1993, the last full 
~i- ■£_■ year for which information is 
:_s: available, it had grown to a 

; point at which more than 72m 
-_i - contracts were exchanged - 
ii : with trading volumes up more 

~ than 30 per cent on the 
■ • previous 12 months. Net 

v r banking income jumped by 7 

- 7 per cent to FFrfiO&n, and total 

- ~ assets stood at FFrll.lSbn. 

But Mr Gerard Pfauwadel, 
chairman, sees no reason to 
blush at the 
apparent 
embarrassment 
of riches. “We 
have to 
v-, guarantee 
every trade and 
we are a 
clearing house 
so we need 
assets like 
every 
insurance 
company to 
ensure our 
guarantee is as 
good as gold, 1 * 
he says. 

He also 
points out that 
much of the 

money has been reinvested: In 
a new trading floor opened this 
autumn, in a new registration 
system, in developing new 
markets and products, and in a 
wide range of other technologi- 
cal and strategic innovations. 

However, the profitability of 
Matif has certainly triggered 
some fhistrations among those 
who cannot share the spoils, ft 
was created as a unique tripar- 
tite initiative, a corporate 
entity with the shareholders 
equally split between banks, 
^brokers and insurance compa- 
^Tnies. Now some of those who 
•* did not originally take part are 
calling for a share of the 
equity. 

There is another potential 
problem with Matif s heady 
expansion. Much of the growth 
h«a come from demand in 
other countries. At the end of 
1993, non-residents* share of 
open positions on the market 
was substantial: 42 per emit on 
the notional contract, and up 
to 83 per emit for the Ecu long 
bond, for example. 

This partly reflects the 
organisation’s success in its 
increasingly aggressive inter- 
national marketing campaign 
- with recent presentations , in 
countries including the US and 
XJK. But it may also present 
future challenges, and reflects 
the relative weakness of 
French domestic markets to 
use financial derivatives to a 
greater extent. 

Sit down to chat with Mr 
Pfauwadel and it is difficult to 
get him to stop. *1 can talk for 
24 hours," he says. “I love this 
job.” It is one he is well suited 
for. In effect, he has been 
forced to swallow his own med- 
icine, as the deputy undersec- 
retary at the French treasury 
who drafted the laws in 1385 
that still dictate the framework 
within which Matif operates. 

Mr Pfauwadel says the 
or ganisation was developed “in 
French style*; largely through 
the work of civil servants, who 
were not suspicious of the mar- 
ket, but in fact extremely keen 
to develop an efficient, work- 
able futures exchange to mod- 
ernise the country’s capital 
markets and compete with 


* 

4 


those in other countries. 

The result is that he sees no 
need for great changes to the 
law. Nor does he see the need 
for enormous restructuring of 
the services currently pro- 
vided. After rapid growth in its 
first eight years, Mr Pfauwadel 
looks more on the next few as 
bring primarily time for con- 
solidation of existing strate- 
gies. 

Matif has developed a series 
of new financial products, and 
now offers long; medium and 
short-term interest rate con- 
tracts; stock index futures on 
the Paris bourse’s CAC 40; and 
currency options; as well as 
commodity contracts in white 
sugar and potatoes. 

Now Mr Pfauwadel believes 
that most products for which 
there is currently demand are 
catered for. “It is becoming 
more difficult to innovate," he 
says. However, he argues that 
there may be scope still in 
commodities - notably agricut 
tune, in a reflection of France’s 
strength in the 
sector. 

So, at the end 
of October 
Matif launched 
a rapeseed 
futures market, 
two years after 
the European 
price of the 
product was 
wrested from 
the control of 
civil servants 
in Brussels. As 
other commodi- 
ties such as 
wheat are liber- 
alised, Mr Pfiau- 
wadel believes 
there may be 
scope to provide futures in 
these crops too. 

Not all have been so success- 
ful, however. Matif has bad to 
abandon several of its financial 
contracts, and has also had to 
close its commodity futures in 
coffee and cocoa, for example. 
However, Mr Pfauwadel says 
he is in no hurry to look for 
quick returns on rapeseed, and 
stresses that providing new 
services is Ear more important 
than generating a profit In the 
short to medium term. 

An arguably more significant 
set of new developments is in 
aspanding the range of prod- 
ucts available by connections 
to other exchanges. Tradition- 
ally, Matif has been an “open 
ontcry” market, with deals 
done by traders on a physical 
floor. However, Mr Pfauwadel 
is tar from dogmatic about this 
approach continuing to domi- 
nate in the future. 

In 1993, Matif members 
gained access to Globex, the 
24-hour screen-based electronic 
trading system developed by 
Reuters and the Chicago Mer- 
cantile Exchange; and which 
now accounts for an estimated 
9) per cent of its total volumes. 

At least equally important, 
at the end of the same year, it 
signed a co-operation agree- 
ment with the Deutsche Ter- 
minborse (DTB) in Frankfurt 
its opposite number. This 
allows members to trade elec- 
tronically in two German prod- 
ucts. Reciprocally, two French 
products will be available 
within the next few months. 

ft all goes well new products 
wiB be developed in both direc- 
tions, and a clearing system 
between the two exchanges put 
in place by the end . of nest 
year. Mr Pfauwadel says he is 
alr eady in rHsi amarip ng with his 
equivalents in other European 
countries to do the same; nota- 
bly the Dutch. Spaniards and 
Swiss. 

One country is strikingly 
absent from the fist the UK, 
represented by its London 
International Financial 
Futures Exchange (Liffe). Mir 
Pfauwadel says he approached 
the market before going to the 
Germans, but officials refused 


to take part 

"The British have another 
strategy,” he says. “They want 
an open outcry system, with a 
big market in the City to quote 
all European products. It is in 
conflict with our strategy to 
develop a domestic niche and 
link to other exchanges by a 


network.” 

Tt may be that these two dif- 
ferent and opposing 
approaches which, more than 
anything, set the tone for the 
competition for the markets for 
futures and options across 
Europe over the next few 
years. 



ACTIVE 


DEBT 


MANAGEMENT 



met 

Another curve that’s 
heading the right way 

This curve demonstrates the way EOF is working 
to develop a broad , liquid secondary market in 
its debt securities amt thus maintain its standing in the 
capital markets. H y creating targe lines of fungible stock , 
restructuring its debt and encouraging the development of 
active market-making in its bonds , EOF has benefited not 
only its customers but also its investors. 

FINANCIAL OPERATIONS IN 1993 ( in FFr billion) 


10.9 


9.4 



1. Early redemptions 

2. Public repurchase offer 

3. Open market repurchases 

4. Public exchange offer 

5. Borrowings 


EOF, a power in finance . 


Electricity 
de France 



V£ 


crench'finance AND INVESTMENT 6 


FINANCIAL TIMES • MONDAY ' 

v; .. *. -v y 


.sjz- 


^ * 





The Crddlt Lyonnais bank In Paris and fright a wtew of the Lyon commerce cfatriet with the offices of Banque Popuiare (left) and CrAdft Lyonnais (right) 


' Tory * 


Jean Psyretavade ami to pradeecsesor at Cr&It Lyonnais, Jeen-YMS Haborer 


A decade ago, Credit 
Lyonnais, the state- 
owned' bank, launched a 
publicity slogan that has 
haunted it ever since: “The 
power to say yes." In the past 
few months, its directors, cus- 
tomers and shareholders have 
all wished that, instead, it had 
exercised its power to say “no” 
rather more often. 

A string of activities that 
look extremely embarrassing 
in hindsight continues to hover 
over its future prosperity: 
loans to MGM, the film com- 
any, an extraordinarily unprof- 
itable property portfolio, and 
financial support to Mr Bern- 
ard Taple, the controversial 
French businessman and politi- 
cian, to name just a few. 


Andrew Jack on the chequered fortunes of the state-owned Credit Lyonnais 


The importance of saying ‘maybe’ 


While the French govern- 
ment, the controlling share- 
holder in the bank, nfaimg that 
it spotted troubles starting to 
emerge in 1992, action took 
rather longer. Mr Jean -Yves 
Haberer was removed as head 
of the bank last November - 
although initially to be given 
another important banking job. 
In his place, the state 
appointed Mr Jean Peyrele- 
vade, formerly head of UAP, 


the French insurance group. 

However, the financial prob- 
lems at Credit Lyonnais were 
brought into sharp focus only 
in March this year when the 
bank declared record losses of 
FFr63bn, and the state under- 
wrote FFr42bn worth of its 
property portfolio. This was 
followed by a FFrASbn capital 
increase announced over the 
summer with money from the 
state and other - somewhat 


reluctant - shareholders. 

In July, a parliamentary 
inquiry criticised the bank and 
its directors, attacking its prop- 
erty investments but also - 
more controversially - the 
extent to which the state itself 
had pushed the hank into prop- 
ping up state-owned industries. 

But the bad news did not end 
there. At the end of September. 
Credit Lyonnais reported fur- 
ther losses for the half-year of 


Profile: CREDIT AGRICOLE 


For more than just farmers 


Twenty minutes into the 
conversation, Mr Lumen Dour- 
oux. the chairman of Credit 
Agricole, heaves a sigh of relief 
as the questioning shifts away 
from the bank’s agricultural 
loans. “At last.” he says, rais- 
ing his hands in a mix of exas- 
peration and delight 

Past history and the legacy 
implied by its name have 
helped fuel two misconceptions 
about Credit Agricole, which 
celebrated its centenary in Sep- 
tember that it is stffl subsi- 
dised by the French govern- 
ment, and predominantly 
involved in agriculture. 

As a result, its officials 
believe it has often been mis- 
understood - particularly by 
Anglo-Saxon journalists, but 
more importantly by potential 
clients, which some insiders 
concede may have' periodically 



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prejudiced its chances of gain- 
ing business outside its tradi- 
tional sphere of operations. 

Certainly Credit Agricole 
stands apart from its competi- 
tors in a number of ways - not 
least the modern headquarter^ 
hidden behind the Montpar- 
nasse station south of the 
Seine, in stark contrast to the 
ornate offices of most of 
France’s other large banks 
located more centrally around 
Place de POpdra. 

At a time when most French 
banks are laying emphasis on 
cutting back on the number of 
branches, Credit Agricole 
remains proud of its extensive 
network*, with 8,400 outlets . 
serving 15m personal custom- 
ers. it is the largest numeri- 
cally in the country. / 

M kft rural Rn gHah churches, 
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the week with staff rotating 
between, a succession of cen- 
tres. It also operates some 
10,000 “green points” or bank- 
ing centres in butchers' and 
bakers' shops in small villages. 

. .-. Modem art celebrating the 
furrow in a former’s field, 
photos of tile countryside lib- 
erally illustrating its annual 
report, and the persistent 
refusal to change its name - 
with all its valuable 
long-standing associations - do 
nothing to help change its 
image and reflect its broader 
portfolio of activities today. 

There is no doubt that Credit 
Agricole remains pre-eminent 
in rural areas and in loans to 
farmers. Its literature contin- 
ues to talk about its link to the 
soil, its roots and its regional 
-strength. It continues to hold 
about 80 per cast of the market 
share of. farmers’ business 
against Its competitors. 

“Thai is a stable percentage, 
one we intend to retain,” says 
Mr Douroux. “It’s an activity 
we know well and where we 
have a lot of expertise. It is not 
an easy sector to understand. 
We have advantages.” 

Nevertheless, Mr Douroux 
says that the agricultural sec- 
tor is becoming increasingly 
uncertain in the light of 
reforms to the common agri- 
cultural policy and the chang- 
ing policy of Gate Equally, the 
proportion of the French popu- 
lation -that is employed In 
forming - and their contribu- 
tion to the economy - is in 
contmoihg decline. 

At the same time. Credit 
Agricole has come under new 
competitive pressures. Finan- 
cial deregulation in the 1980s 
altered the environment The 
bank was privatised in IS88 - 
converted into an unquoted 
joint stock company with IQ 
per cent of the shares held by 
employees and the remainder 
by the network of regional 


hanks that make up the co-op- 
erative structure. 

“We have no state support 
and no privileges," says Mr 
Douroux. “We are just one 
bank among others. In the past 
there was a monopoly and it 
was right, just as using oil- 
lamps were right at one stage. 
But it’s over." 

It still dominates in provid- 
ing stateeubsidised low inter- 
est loans to agriculture - a leg- 
acy of the 19th century. But it 
must now bid in the annual 
auction against other banks 
which want the business. 

On the other hand, it fan 
now function more freely. In 
the past, tight government con- 
trols on credit in general, and 
an the operation of the hank in 
particular, restricted its expan- 
sion into other areas. It was 
allowed to provide services to 
small and medium -sized com- 
panies only in 1981, and to 
larger companies in 199L 

Just 5 per cent of its custom- 
ers are farmers, who represent 
15 per cent of outstanding 


FFr4-5bn. It announced further 
provisions of FFrlOlbn, and is 
widely expected to require per- 
haps the same amount again 
before dispensing with the leg- 
acy of the past 
Meanwhile, Mr Peyrelevade 
has been playing a delicate 
game against the state. While 
he pleaded for additional finan- 
cial support to prevent the risk 
of the bank failing below mini- 
mum solvency levels, the gov- 
ernment held hack from pub- 
licly providing the necessary 
reassurance at the time of a 
high budget deficit. 

The result has been a diplo- 
matic compromise. Mr Peyrele- 
vade simply states in the pas- 
sive voice that the problems of 
the past will no longer he an 
issue after the start of next 
year. The government empha- 
sises that it will support depos- 
itors but everything must hap- 
pen in the right order, manning 
a full evaluation of the provi- 
sions that are really necessary 
before there is any offer of 
unconditional extra support 
Observers have questioned 
whether Credit Lyonnais h a s 


yet gone far enough in its 
strategy for reform. It is pro- 
ceeding with an asset disposal 
progr amm e agreed by the gov- 
ernment at the time of the 
recapitalisation, but the signs 
are that it is already faffing 
behind in its timetable and fo 
the value of realisations. 

It is also resisting attempts 
to sell any of its core activities, 
notably its operations in 
Europe including perhaps the 
most comprehensive retail 
branch network across the con- 
tinent something which it is 
convinced is the secret of suc- 
cess for the future. Others are 
less convinced. 

The events of the last few 
months have cer tainly had a 
powerfully detrimental effect 
on the bank’s certificats d’m- 
vestissement, its only publicly 
traded shares aithnmgh a num- 
ber of analysts now believe the 
worst is over. But Mr Peyrele- 
vade admits that the negative 
publicity may have also 
reduced the number of new 
customers attracted over the 
last few months. 

In an unprecedented effort to 


boost morale for clients and 
staff alike, . Credit- Lyonnais 
launched a FFrlSm advertising 
campaign in some 70 newspa- 
pers early last month. The cen- 
trepiece was an “open doors 
evening” at local branches 
across France to pose ques- 
tions to the staff about. its 
losses and financial stability. 

An estimated 40,000 people 
turned up between 5pm and 
9pm to quiz several , thousand 
volunteer staff in 1.900 of 
Credit Lyonnais’ . 2,100 
branches around the country. 
Mr Peyrelevade himself went 
to a branch in his home town 
of Marseilles; with many other 
senior and middle-ranking 
headquarters staff getting out 
to diffa r un t offices. 

An internal briefing docu- 
ment rf pmfafad to bank’s 
staff in the past few days gave 
them detailed responses to a 
number of Credit Lyonnais' 
critics. It told them to be natu- 
ral, professional and positive, 
and advised Hww in the event 
of “an incident" to take more 
em otional clients to a more iso- 
lated place to discuss and 


maintain- the. hank’s positron 
“but always with a smife?.; ; ' 
: Much of the French press 
waa sceptical about the success 
of tins event Certainly, many 
customers . in the bank’s 
branches in Paris seemed more 
concerned about withdrawing 
cash from wall dispensers and' 
struggling home In this rush, 
hour rather than asking qoes- 
. tions although one manager 
suggested the problem was tbe - 
competition from three tele- 
vised football -matches that 
evening. - 
But. speaking on French 
radio-, Mr Peyrelevade said that 1 
tiie critical reaction was typi- 
cally. Barman, and that iu 
many other parts of the coun- 
try the evening was well 
received. An opinion poll can- 
ducted by Crddit Lyonnais 
with 500 of the branches that, 
participated suggested three- 
quarters came to ask que* 

- tions,. just: over half to express . 
support and 19 per cent to com- 
plain. 

: Nevertheless, in the view of 
the staff afterwards, about 30 
per cent of customers left stiff, 
bearing concerns, about 'the 
bank’s financial difficulties or 
scandals. Such opinions wifi 
continue to haunt Credit Lyon- 
nais, and remind its managers 
- if they get the chance — .of 
the importance of continuing 
to say “maybe" rather more 
often. 


loans. Twofifths are domestic 
loans - mainly for mortgages. 
Small business and local 
authorities are also important 
parts of the portfolio. 

As to the future, Mr Douroux 
highlights three areas. The 
first is to improve productivity 
by reducing costs. The regional 
banks continuing Credit Agri- 
cole are being enlarged and 
regrouped. Where there were 
94 in 198637, there are 68 now. 
and it is estimated that there 
wOl be just 3540 by the turn of 
the century. Mr Douroux talks 
of a “progressive reduction" of 
costs each year. 

The second target, he says, is 
“to reinforce our basic activi- 
ties: loans to households, agri- 
culture, local authorities, and 
small and medium-sized busi- 
nesses.” 

Finally, he alms to develop 
some new markets, primarily 
In existing areas of strength in 
other countries where domes- 
tic clients are expanding, or in 
specialist niches such as pri- 
vate banking; capital markets 
and treasury management. He 
also wants to extend partner- 
ship through buying stakes in 
and working more closely with 
other co-operative banks in 
Europe “to provide a full array 
of services,” using local stakes. 

But he stresses that many 
banks have made too many 
mistakes by expanding abroad. 
“Our m.iin strength Is domes- 
tic," he says. “We will continue 
to develop our international 
network, but not too fast" 


Andrew Jack 


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FINANCIAL TIMES SURVEY 


Joint ventures with eastern 
European shippers offer new 
opportunities. Page 2 


European prosperity 
proves elusive 

Disputes with its neighbours, political uncertainty 
and continuing recession are pushing Greece further 
from convergence with the EU, says Kerin Hope 


hese are difficult tir npy 
for Greece. 

Its superficial gloss of 
piropean prosperity can no 
tonger disguise the structural 
problems that are blocking 
prospects for long-term growth. 

The political parties, 
obsessed with personal rival- 
ries and keeping alive the per- 
vasive patronage system, show 
little awareness of the coun- 
try’s economic predicament 

And disputes with its neigh- 
bours in the Ratiranc have fur- 
ther distanced the country 
from its European Union part- 
ners. 

The mood of frustration is 
reinforced hy the refusal of 
Andreas Papandreou, the 76- 
year-old prime minister, to 
retire or appoint a deputy pre- 
mier. Mr Papandreou’s weak- 
ening health, which allows him 
to work for only a few hours a 
day, feeds media speculation 
over the succession struggle in 
the governing Panhellenic 
Socialist Movement, Pasok. 

But strict self-censorship by 
Cheek newspapers and televi- 
sion suppresses any debate 
about when or even whether 
the ailing Mr Papandreou 
should make way for a 
younger leader. 

The waiting period will go on 
at least until parliament votes 
for a new president, a largely 
ceremonial job due to be relin- 
quished next spring by another 
frail elderly statesman, Con- 
stantine Karamanlis. Mr 
Papandreou is the obvious can- 
didate to take over, but Pasok 
controls only 170 of the 180 
votes needed and he is not pre- 
pared to risk a humiliating 
defeat that would trigger a 
general election. 

A search has begun for a 
compromise presidential candi- 
date who would be supported 


by some conservative and left- 
wing deputies in the 300-mem- 
ber house. 

Most opposition deputies are 
anxious to avoid an early poll, 
in spite of assertions by MU- 
tiades Evert, who took over as 
leader of the conservative New 
Democracy party after its elec- 
tion defeat last year, that be 
could capture power. 

The conservatives are 
looking less ragged than 
before, as Mr Evert has antirwri 
back a group of deputies who 
defected last year to the right- 
wing splinter group Political 
Spring, but he stm cannot per- 
suade the party’s feuding fac- 
tions to rally behind him. 

The results of last month's 
local government elections 
underlined the fact that sup- 
port for Pasok is still strong, 
particularly in the countryside 
where the effects of recession 
have been less harsh. 

A lthough conservative 
candidates were elected 
as mayors of Athens and 
Thessaloniki, the cities where 
unemployment is highest, the 
socialists’ popularity has sur- 
vived their decision to abandon 
t)<p generous wage and welfare 
spending of their first term in 
the 1980s in favour of tighter 
policies. 

The election in Athens of 
Dimitris Avramopoulos, an ex- 
diplomat with virtually no 
political experience, demon- 
strated, however, that voters 
are refecting traditional party 
and ideological divisions. Sig- 
nificant, too, was the high 
nationwide abstention rate, 
indicating rising dissatisfac- 
tion with the politicians. 

After three decades in which 
many Greeks became city resi- 
dents for the first time, while 
attaining a standard of living 


comparable to that elsewhere 

in southern Europe, attitudes 
are undergoing a radical 
change. Social and environ- 
mental problems, ranging from 
drug use to atmospheric pollu- 
tion and the dumping of toxic 
waste, assume a much higher 
profile. 

The urge to modernise cuts 
across political boundaries. 
The pro-European technocrats 
in charge of economic policy 
under the «nriaiid« and the lib- 
eral faction in New Democracy- 
have more in common with 
each other than with old-style 
politicians in their own parties. 

But the present lack of lead- 
ership is »ndprmining the tech- 
nocrats’ chances of pushing 
through structural reforms 
needed to help the economy 
catch up with the rest of the 
EU. 

The government’s decision 
last week to postpone the par- 
tial flotation of OTE, the state 

tBleCflTnmrmirati nnK monopoly, 
until next year is just one 
example of how special interest 
groups, in this case the tele- 
coms company’s powerful 
union, can obstruct the reform 
process. Political opposition to 
the flotation, together with the 
socialists’ commitment to con- 
tinued state management, had 
a negative impact on overseas 
Investors’ interest in the offer- 
ing. 

It is not just the possibility 
of losing some Di300bn f £790m.) 
in revenues that worries the 
economy ministry. Failure to 
float the telecoms company 
would raise doubts about the 
partial privatisations being 
planned and put at risk 
Greece’s convergence pro- 
gramme for participating in 
EU economic and monetary 
union. Moreover, with the 
state still controlling some 60 




Monday November 14 1994 



Athens has one of the country's highest rates of irompioyment Mnwr 


per cent of the economy, over- 
hauling public corporations is 
important in trying to shrink 
the public sector deficit 
Low productivity at state- 
controlled banks, transport 
companies and government 
agencies, where payrolls are 
crammed with patronage 
appointees, makes it harder to 
reduce inflation, which has 
been stuck for most of this 
year at about 11 per cent 


Greece's hopes of economic 
recovery are based on its 
EculASbn (£11.64bn) share of 
the ElTs new structural pack- 
age designed to help its poor 
members achieve economic 
convergence. 

Infrastructure improve- 
ments, with the EU providing 
up to 80 per cent of funding, 
should promote growth and 
competitiveness. Yet only one 
EU-backed project has been 


Tourism earnings have 
failed to keep pace with 
increased arrivals. Page 4 



awarded - a sea-bed tunnel 
linking two ports in western 
Greece - while disputes with 
the European Commission over 
contract terms are blocking the 
start of construction of a new 
Athens airport, port improve- 
ments and several hundred kil- 
ometres of motorways. 

Without strong political 

harking , the finanra* minis try's 
new campaig n to curb corrup- 
tion at tax offices, broaden the 
tax base and cut tax evasion 
could quickly cr umb le. 

P lans for including credit 
card payments and mortgage 
loans, as well as obvious items 
such as yachts and luxury 
cars, into the new list of 
“wealth indicators” that are 
being used to calculate tax lia- 
bility have been met with 
fierce opposition. 

Whatever happens, next year 
marks a tu rning point Econ- 
omy ministry planners know 
that unless progress is made 
towards convergence, by 1996, 
when the EU reviews its 
future. Greece’s status will 


decline further with the arrival 
of new entrants from eastern 
Europe. But with EU transfers 
to Greece to amount to almost 
6 per cent of gross domestic 
product in the next five years, 
few Greek politicians seem 
aware that the years of gener- 
ous hand-outs from Brussels 
may soon be over. 

It does not help, either, that 
Greece is quarrelling with two 
out of three of its Balkan 
neighbours. Suspicion runs so 
deep in the region that even if 
disputes with Albania and 
Macedonia can be patched up 
soon, trade and investment 
prospects are likely to suffer in 
the future. 

The eight-month trade 
embargo against Macedonia 
has frozen business contacts 

and will alsn affect earning s 

this year at Greece's northern 
port of Thessaloniki, formerly 
the main outlet for Macedo- 
nian exports. 

In Albania where Greek 
investment was increasing, 
smaller projects have been fro- 


zen and there are fears that 
Italian companies may now be 
preferred over Greek compa- 
nies in competitive bids for 
infrastructure projects. 

Greek officials realise that 
readiness to im plicat e the EU 
in these bilateral disputes, by 
vetoing European aid to both 
countries, damages their own 
relationship with Brussels. 

Yet in spite of a perceptible 
dertina in nationalist feeling, 
which triggered the rows over 
Macedonia's name the sta- 
tus of the ethnic Greek minor- 
ity in southern Albania, Cheek 
attitudes on minority rights at 
home still reflect outdated poli- 
cies. 

Accusations persist of dis- 
crimination against Greece’s 
Moslem minority in Thrace, 
while the efforts of Slav-speak- 
ers in Greece’s northern prov- 
inces - who would be called 
the Macedonian minority if 
they lived anywhere but 
Greece - to preserve their lan- 
guage and cultural traditions 
stm face political obstacles. 


HOW A SINGLE TAKEOVER RESTRUCTURES AN INDUSTRY 


Changing the Frozen Foods Sector in xJ-’t. v^C 


e. 


Few sectors in Greece exhibit the 
dynamism and growth shown by the food 
industry. In an economy saddled with a six- 
year old recessionary cycle, the food industry 
has been a leader in terms of investment, 
financial results, market penetration and rates 
of growth. And these achievements have come 
while prices have increased at rates below 
inflation. The food sector ranks third (after 
beverages a nd paper) in terms of production, 
first in terms of investments carried out and 
has an average performance with respect to 
prices increases: while manufacturing prices 
rose by an average of 13.5% for all sectors in 
1993, food prices increased by just 16%. 

The main beneficiary of this performance 
has been the consumer, quality has improved 
significantly, toe range of products has 
widened impressively and technological 
innovation has been the rule of game in the 
period from 1985 till today. 

It is, thus, no surprise that companies like 
DELTA DAIRY INDUSTRIES have managed 
to meet successfully bead-on competition from 
multinationals, like Urrilevo- which entered the 
Greek ice cream market with the AJgida brand 
and has smee failed to capture more than 20% 
of the market, though in all other european 
countries it has a minimum of 30% market 
share. Nor is it surprising that Greek food 
companies, like DELTA and 3E, have managed 
a very successful incur&icm into the Balkan 
market, and especially in Bulgaria and 
Romania, where their presence is now felt in a 


definite manner. 

Because of special factors, however, the 
frozen foods sector in Greece has remained 
relatively small and has shown rather medium 
rales of growth. A two-pereon working 
family is still relatively rare in toe country. The 
family continues to operate as the main social 
unit and the extended family takes care of 
its members, even at times of hardship. The 
temperate r fi™* 1 *^ favours the production and 
consumption of fresh products. And the pace 
of everyday life is still not hectic.enougb to 
justify the switch from regular cooking to. 



Under these circumstances, companies 
have tried to improve productivity and to 
appeal to toe consumer through a better quality 
product Thus, toe frozen foods sector is 
characterized, among others, by its high degree 
of capitalization in both buildings and 
equipment and in working capital. Financial 
results have not been encouraging though: the 
return on capital in the two largest companies, 
which together account for over 80% of the 
market, has been consistently below the 


average for industry as a whole, i.e. below 
1 1 % for toe return on own capital which is toe 
average for manufacturing as well as below 
15.5% which is toe average for the food sector. 

The frozen food sector, however. Is about 
to undergo a major transformation. DELTA 
DAIRY Industries has taken over the country's 
largest frozen foods firm BARBA STATHIS 
S.A.. which literally translates into UNCLE 
STATHIS- DELTA has already a commanding 
presence in the market, where its affiliate 


FROZA S.A. held a respectable 25% of the 
high end of toe market- Following several 
years of a lacklustre performance on account 
of toe factors mentioned above, BARBA 
STATHIS was ready to call it quits and ask 
for help. 

For DELTA, the friendly takeover 
provided a challenge. The combined concern 
of BARBA STATHIS and FROZA now hold 
a dominant position in a market that has and 
shows toe potential for rapid growth. The pace 


of life is changing: continuous working hours, 
two-parents working families and longer 
distances for commuting, all point the way for 
a change in eating and cooking habits as well. 
Further, consumers are realizing that frozen 
foods, especially those of superior quality, are 
in effect fresh foods. 

DELTA’S aim in taking over BARBA 
STATHIS is to obtain a series of external and 
internal economies which will allow it to 
operate at high levels of productivity and 
quality without significant effects on prices 
charged to the final consumer. By turning a 
relatively poor performer like BARBA 
STATHIS in to a highly profitable business, 
DELTA urns to exploit the potential for high 
value-added products that is inherent in the 
business of frozen foods. 

The company’s main business plan is 
simple. Namely, it aims to proceed along 
two main axes: 

• First, it will rationalize production, which 
means lower capital concentration, 
higher efficiency and lower production 
costs. Ibis, in turn, will allow the 
company to become more competitive 
and meet the challenge of imported 
brands. 

• Secondly, it will coordinate distribution 
channels, thus, further lowering costs 
and creating better and closer ties with 
customers. 

It should be noted, however, that FROZA 
and BARBA STATHIS will continue to exist 
as separate and competing brands. The former 
will continue to appeal to the higher end of 
the market while toe lather will appeal to the 
mass market. 

The end result of this venture will be 
to increase toe size of toe market and to offer 
the consumer a wider range of high quality 
products for all needs and desires. At toe same 
time, toe Greek frozen food industry will 
be close to acquiring that necessary critical 
mass which will enable it to compete 
successfully with imported foods, while also 
providing it with the opportunity to expand in 
the Balkan area. 




II 


j .^lif irt-i 


FINANCIAL TIMES MONDAY NOVEMBER 14 1994 


GREECE 2 


G reece's budget planners are well 
aware that 1995 will be a decisive 
Tear for the economy. If targets on 
reducing inflation and the budget deficit 
can be met, Greece still has an outside 
chance of joining its European partners in 
monetary union at the end of the 1990s. 

Otherwise, as a foreign economist put it, 
the downward spiral of deficit and debt 
will "consign Greece permanently to 
Europe's economic margins". 

Greece won grudging approval in Sep- 
tember from its EU partners for a revised 
convergence plan, aimed at meeting the 
Maastricht requirements on inflation and 
the deficit by the end of 1998 and substan- 
tially reducing the public debt now at 
more than 110 per cent of gross domestic 
product. 

With this year’s budget deficit now 
likely to be held just below the target of 
13.2 per cent of GDP, the socialist govern- 
ment’s commitment to reducing fiscal 
imbalances is starting to look more con- 
vincing. 

The government is also confident that 


Meeting targets on reducing inflation and the budget deficit is vital, says Kerin Hope 


Walking the economic tightrope 


inflati on can be held at about 11 per cent 
this year, down from 13.7 per cent in 1993. 
But that is outside this year’s single-digit 
target gT|< i still more than three times the 
ED average. “There will be no revenue 
shortfall this year, which gives us some 
thing positive to build on," says Yan n is 
Stournaras, a senior government economic 
adviser. 

The finance ministry's success in boost- 
ing tax revenues after a disastrous start to 
the year, together with cuts in the public 
investment budget because of delays in 
launching EC-funded projects, is expected 
to wipe out a Dr200bn revenue shortfall 
forecast earlier. 

But next year's budget is causing head- 
aches at the finance ministry, mainly 


because the government wants to avoid 
the political cost of introducing new taxes 
in what may be an election year. 

The convergence plan calls for cutting 
the budget deficit to 10.7 per cent of GDP 
and annual inflation to 7-8 per cent. How- 
ever, Yannos Papantoniou, the economy 
minister, will have to put together a new 
fiscal packag e if it appears Greece will not 
meet these targets. 

Tncnma from one-off privatisations and 
asset sales cannot be assigned to help 
cover a revenue shortfall under current 
EU rules, but must be used to offset debt. 
For the moment, revenue increases depend 
on reinforcing' the campaign against tax 
evasion, with the help of a new financial 
police force, empowered to arrest sus- 


pected tax evaders and seize their books. 

Corruption in tax. offices, together with 
protracted legal disputes over tax settle- 
ment, is blamed for past failures to 
improve revenue collection. 



uch of this year’s boost in reve- 
nues came from introducing an 
automatic settlement procedure 
to resolve 7.5m outstanding disputes 
involving DrlJMObn in tax arrears. Hie 
system is now being extended, with 
self-employed professionals being automat- 
ically assessed for unpaid taxes over the 
past Eve years. 

The resilience of the underground econ- 
omy, estimated at more than 30 per cent of 
GDP, is also due to the removal of customs 


controls under single market rules. 
"Smuggling of fuel and cigarettes Is reach- 
ing epidemic proportions. That is (me area 
where the financial police should prove 
effective," says a finance ministry nffirjal. 

However, the government has no plans 
to reduce outlays through public sector 
reform. It gave a generous capital injection , 
to a loss-making state development bank, 
wrote down substantial amounts of debt 
owed by Gann cooperatives and continues 
to subsidise debt-ridden defence concerns. 

Government ministries and state, enter- : 
prises this year ignored guidelines for hir- 
ing one employee to replace three who 
took retirement As a result the public 
sector has added more than 30j000 jobs. 

This will place considerable strain on 


the fhiance'TiiiiHStiy’-s'effiKts to cap.gov- 
emment spending a£1993 levels next year, 
despite, restricting .public sector : wage 
increases to &■ nominal JB per cent ' 
atm, the effort to' Impose fiscal' disci- 
pline, as well as the effects of recession on 
- cdnsuinfir .demand,.is hoping the external 
balance. Imports rose by anfer 33 per cent 
. in the first half ofl994, while asteady rise 
in EU transfers ;kt^ the ' current account 
deficit at. $Uhn. " '~S' ' 

•Greece has. Mtitech^^ 
climb out of recession next year. Growth 
in 1995 is set to rite marginally to 12 per 
. cent, based on .the launch of Infrastructure 
projects financed by tfce ElTs new struc- 
tural aid package for poor member-states. 
But there are hints that recovery may be 
on the way. Private investment is proj- 
ected to grow by about l .per cent next 
year, despite :lnterest rates on working 
capital above 25 per cent Greece 1 * indus- 
trial sector, which accounts for only 17 per 
cant of GDP, Is picking up, -with output 
forecast to rise, by this year by almost 2 
per cent after four years’ of dedtae. 





. w 




The privatisation programme has suffered a setback, says Kerin Hope 


Telecoms flotation is delayed 


The sight of Yannos Papantonion, 
Greece's economy minister, rounding up 
deputies in the corridors of parliament 
before a crucial vote on the flotation of 
the state telecoms company, illustrates 
the importance the governing socialists 
now place on partial privatisation. 

The law opening the way for 25 per cent 
of OTE, the telecoms monopoly, to be sold 
on the Athens stock exchange was finally 
approved last Monday. But two days later, 
the government decided to postpone the 
flotation, set for early December. 

Advisers to the Issue warned early last 
week that under presort conditions the 
government’s target of raising more Hian 
Dr320bn tram the flotation would not be 
met The offering is now expected in Feb- 
ruary. Mr Papantoniou hopes for a better 
price them with DIE’S foil-year results 
available, a new board of directors in 
place and a less charged political atmo- 
sphere. 

The economy ministry forecasts reve- 
nues of Dr400bn Cram privatisation in the 
next three years. Studies are under way to 
identify state enterprises that could be 
listed on the bourse, offered to private 
investors, or re st r u c ture d with a view to 
selling off subsidiaries. 

Although It took only a few months in 
power for the PanheUenic Socialist Move- 
ment to reverse its opposition to unbundl- 
ing the state, the OTE delay indicates that 
the party’s radical faction still has reser- 
vations. However, a shift in public opin- 
ion in favour of privatisation reflects frus- 
tration with poor services offered by the 
state-owned corporations that control an 
estimated 60 per cent of the economy. 

The telecommunications, airline, elec- 
tricity, petroleum and shipbuilding indus- 


tries are dominated by the state, while 
more than 60 per cent of the banking 
market is held by the two biggest state 
banks. Management is deeply politicised, 
with senior executives' jobs being handed 
out by the governing party. The patron- 
age system extends well beyond the 
board-room, with the result that state cor- 
porations are all heavily overstaffed. 

The disastrous condition of public 
finaiwes makes flotations of state enter- 
prises an appealing method of raising 
funds for new investment The govern- 
ment hoped to reassure Fasok's doubters 
by offering only minority stakes in public 
sector corporations and allowing the state 
to ret ai n management control. 

The OTE public offering remains pivotal 
to tiie economy ministry’s privatisation 
plans. Despite last week’s problems, Mr 
Papantoniou has benefited from the con- 
servatives' tailed attempt to sell a 49 per 
cent stake in the company last year. He 
had little difficulty in recalling CS First 
Boston and J Henry Schroder Wagg, the 
international investment hawks chosen by 
the conse r vatives to handle the OTE dual, 
since their fees had not been paid. 

OTE is one of only a few profitable 
Greek state enterprises, with pretax prof- 
its last year of DrZ29bn on turnover of 
Di389bn. First-half results this year, pub- 
lished for the first time, showed pre-tax 
profits of Dr77.8bn on turnover of 
Dr2108bii. 

Prof Christos Kazan tzis, a financial 
adviser on the OTE sale, dismisses inves- 
tor concerns over the quality of state 
management He says; “More important is 
the tremendous potential for growth, con- 
sidering that income per line in Greece is 
less than half the European Union aver- 


age. 


Most Greek commercial banks were 
invited to share in underwriting the 
domestic tranche of 7 per cent, to ensure 
wide distribution of the issue. The new 
law also aims to reassure investors by 
providing for share price support by the 
underwriting banks for several months 
after the flotation. 

Regardless of when the OTE sale goes 
through. DEP, the state-controlled oil 
refining and petroleum products group 
wants to come to market next year. Both 
DEP, a holding company, and the two 
state refineries it owns are to be floated, 
along with an ofl trading subsidiary. 

DEP is handing over DrSObn to the gov- 
ernment this year ahead of its flotation. 
With consolidated profits for 1994 prel- 
ected at Dr36bu on sales of Dr642bn, tiie 
group intends to expand ahead of the flo- 
tation. 

DBFs two ofl refineries control 60 per 
cent of the local market while its chain of 
petrol stations has a 20 per cent market 
share. 

Manolis Daskalakis, DEP*s managing 
director, says: “There will be a series of 
listings starting late in 1995 but we wont 
be disposing of more than 25 per cent of 
any of our companies.'' 

DEP plans to nse funds from the flota- 
tion to finance a $500m five-year invest- 
ment plan, which includes expanding into 
other markets in the southern Balkans. 

However, the next stage of privatisation 
will be more difficult. Other companies on 
the list such as the Public Power Corpora- 
tion, the power utility, have moved into 
loss because of restrictions on tariff 
increases and are heavily burdened with 
accumulated debt 



Growth 


3E's steady growth over the past years has been 
the result of the company's unrelenting commit- £££ 
ment to customer satisfaction and its continuous 
long-term modernization initiatives. 

Recently, 3E has started to expand beyond Greece. -V 
Driven by the same values and principles but with 
new goals in sight, 3E will continue its efforts to ; 
grow and progress, and to broaden its horizons. 







Broadening 

Horizons 


Louise Briggs on Greek joint ventures with eastern European shippers 


Alliance a risky business 


The world's largest tug, now 
working out of Piraeus, 
recently hoisted the Russian 
flag to mark the en d of an 18- 
month dispute with Tsavliris, 
the Greek shipping group that 
specialises in salvage and tow- 
ing. 

The quarrel over the Tsav- 
liris Giant - now the Fotiykry- 
lov - says much about the 
risks faced by Greek ship- 
owners in eastern Europe and 
the former Soviet Union. 

Tsavliris chartered the tug 
and its sister vessel, which had 
both belonged to the Russian 
navy, from a Maltese company. 
But Russian authorities later 
claimed the tugs were illegally 
registered in Malta and 
demanded them back. 

Now they are being operated 
by Tsavliris-Russ, a Cyprus- 
based joint venture between 
the Greek group and the Rus- 
sian navy, managed by Tsva- 
Urls. 

Several Greek shipowners 
have formed joint, ventures 
with shipping concerns in 
Romania and the former Soviet 
Union, or are manag in g ships 
chartered from them on a bare- 
boat basis. 

Shipyards in eastern Europe 
have more than 60 ships under 
construction, on order or with 
options pending for Greek own- 
ers. Ex-Soviet seamen are also 
in demand among (freek opera- 
tors. “Ex-Soviet crews had 12 
years’ training, so they’re more 
skille d than most seamen. The 
disadvantage is that they don't 
have a lot of initiative,” says 
one analyst 

Greek shipowners’ interest 
in Romania sharpened in 1990 
after the collapse of commu- 
nism. as much of the country's 
large commercial fleet had 
been laid up under the 
Ceausescu regime. However, 
several Greek ventures in 
Romania have run into trou- 
ble. 

Forum Maritime’s controver- 
sial attempt last year to 
acquire 51 per cent of 
Petromin, the state-owned 
Romanian tanker and bulk car- 
rier company, came close to 
bringing down the Romanian 
government The 5335m d*wi , 
billed as the largest investment 





The docks at Kraeus. Greek ahip ow ii iira have formed Jofcrt venftvms with 
concerns n eastern Europe maw 


to date in eastern Europe, fell 
through following objections 
by the Romanian Development 
Agency, the country's invest- 
ment watchdog and other state 
organisations, over financing 
arrangements. 

Minerva Maritime - a joint 
venture set up by Petromin 
and a Greek owner, John Ala- 
fouzos to manage and operate 
10 vessels - came close to 
being dissolved this year amid 
claims that funds were mis- 
managed- Four Petromin offi- 
cials involved in making over 
vessels to the joint venture 
were jailed on charges of ille- 
gally exporting Romanian 
assets. 

Greek owners involved In 
charter and management deals 
with eastern European ship- 


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ping concerns complain that 
their partners lack market 
know-how. The eastern Euro- 
peans fear they may be out- 
manoeuvred by their Greek 
partners. Most joint venture 
agreements involve a cash 
Investment by the Greek ride 
to upgrade eastern European 
ships to market standard, to be 
recovered out of operating 
profits. 

Yet despite the prickly rela- 
tionships, the joint ventures 
offer opportunities for making 
a quick return. They provide 
available tannage which can be 
upgraded at a fraction of the 
cost of buying modem second- 
hand vessels and much faster 
than it would take to order and 
bufld a new ship. 

On the shipbuilding side, low 
labour costs at eastern Euro- 
pean yards help make prices 
competitive. The Vardinoyan- 


nis group is b uilding nine 
45,000 DWT tankers at the 
Chernomorsky yard at Niko- 
layev in the Ukraine at a. cost 
of f270m. Discussions are 
under way on extending the 
series to 24 vessels.- . .. 

The Laskarides group, which 
operates specialises in refri- 
gated tonnage, is building 17 
vessels at .another yard in 
Nlkolayev. There is no price 
tag for the ships, since spetir 
■ alised equipment is ordered 
from western suppliers and 
paid for by the shipowners. 

Eletson Corporation, which 
recently ordered a series of 
product carriers to be built at 
Newport News Shipbuilding in 
the US, is building three 68,000 
DWT tanke rs on behalf of an 
associated company at a price 
of $34r36m each. 

East European yards have 
difficulty In tirmnring equip- 
ment and tpatarial purchases, 
while they may also require 
expe r t agsiatanrw hi b uDding to 
high specifications. Greek own- 
ers have the flexibility to pro- 
vide both where needed. 

Blue Flag Navigation has a 
30-member team of experts 
based at Romanian yards 
where it is bufldmg 15 sophisti- 
cated vessels, inluding chemi- 
cal, products and bulk carriers. 

Greek owners have also been 
able to take advantage of tailed 
order at eastern European 
yards. Two months ago. Enter- 
prises Shipping and Trading 
took over a collapsed, deal at 
Poland's Gdansk yard from 
Latvian Shipping Company. 

Enterprises was able to pick 
up the contract far two high. . 
specification 400,000 cubic foot \ 
reefers at a considerable dis- 
count, paying $23m instead of 
$28m fin* each ship. 

One of the biggest commit- 
ments to the eastern European 
market has been made by 
Sumo Trust, set up as the shi- 
powning and management aim 
of the Manley Hopkins, the US- 
based shipping services group. 

The company started by fin- 
ancing and upgrading seven 
Petromin ships at a cost of 
515m. It is now building seven 
river and ocean-going products 
tankers in Bulgaria, to be char- 
tered by Russia's Volga Tank- 
ers, and has a joint venture 
with Azov Shipping Company 
of the Ukraine. 









$ 


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FINANCIAL TIMES 


MONDAY NOVEMBER 14 1994 


III 








_ 7 '..1^ V 



:Z/rS 





i.ve st 

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GREECE 3 


David Marsh on relations with the European Union 

Time is running out 


Greece is used to its 

?H ear »S atimonaI role 3S both 
???* and toe enfant 
terijle of the European Union, 
m the economic field, it is the 
state furthest away from the 
tneetmg the “convergence cri- 
tena determining members' 
readiness for economic and 
monetary union at the end or 
the century. 

During the 1980s. Greece dif- 
fered sharply from Spain and 
Portugal by suffering a contin- 
ued fell in prosperity compared 
with its European partners. In 
foreign policy, Greece has fre- 
quently angered the rest of the 
EU over its intransigent posi- 
tion on the recognition of 
neighbouring Yugoslavia. Dur- 
ing the summer, Greece was 
dogged by a series of problems 
over disbursement of EU funds 
earmarked for much-needed 
infrastructure projects. 

At the root of Greece's 
fraught relationship with the 
rest of the EU lies the task of 
achieving better economic con- 
vergence with the rest of 
Europe. The Socialist govern- 
ment of Andreas Papandreou is 
dependent on funding from 
Brussels to ease budget reve- 
nue shortfalls caused by the 
sluggish state of the economy. 
However, hopes faded soon 
after his return to power in 
October 1993 that Mr Papan- 
dreou would bring in urgent 
action to correct the country's 
economic imbalances. 

Formal EU monitoring of the 
Greek economy, put into place 
in 1991 after the granting of a 
loan from Brussels to shore up 
the balance of payments, has 
now lapsed, so the EU has no 
clear-cut lever to set conditions 


for the disbursement of Brus- 
sels largesse. However, annual 
transfers from the EU make up 
roughly 5 per cent of Greece's 
gross domestic product, so the 
Athens government is clearly 
vulnerable to vexation in the 
rest of the EU that it Is not 
living up to standards of eco- 
nomic policy prudence. 

Greece is not the only BU 
country to have overshot ear- 
lier targets to bring down bud- 
get deficits. But its wayward 
economic record often results 

Projections of increased 
fiscal revenue have 
proved grossly over- 
optimistic in recent years 

in its forecasts of improvement 
- particularly in the budgetary 
field - being treated with more 
than usual scepticism. 

Projections of increased fis- 
cal revenue have proved 
grossly over-optimistic in 
recent years - one reason why 
the government’s hopes of 
holding its budget deficit to a 
mere 10.4 per emit of GDP this 
year have been widely disbe- 
lieved. However, a new tax law 
aimed at reducing VAT eva- 
sion, combined with a gener- 
ous settlement system for dis- 
putes involving back tag, has 
resulted in better than expec- 
ted tax receipts this year. 

More than any other EU 
member, Greece remains beset 
by stagflation. At a time when 
the EU inflation average has 
fallen to 3 per cent, the Greek 
inflation rate is still about 12 
percent - and no lasting eco- 
nomic recovery is expected 


Profile: Loukas Papademos 

Banks breathe 
a sigh of relief 


The battle lines ware already 
drawn when Loukas Papade- 
mos took over last month as 
Greece's central bank gover- 
nor. Mr Papademos, 46, found 
hims elf unexpectedly promoted 
from deputy governor to 
replace Yannis Boutos, a politi- 
cal appointee who rah the 
Bank of Greece for less than a 
year. 

Mr Bontos, a former econ- 
omy minister, was sacked by 
the governing socialists in a 
dispute over privatising the 
Bank erf Crete, 
controlled by 
the central 
bank since a 
$200m embez- 
zlement scan- 
dal was uncov- 
ered there in 
1988. 

Greece's 
banking corn- 
ea u n i t y 
breathed a col- 
lective sigh of 
relief when Mr 
Papademos's 
appointment 
was 
announced. 

A former 
Columbia Uni- 
versity eco- 
nomics profes- 
sor who joined the central 
hank a decade ago as a macro- 
economic adviser, he has 
remained aloof from the quar- 
rels souring relations between 
the hank and government poli- 
cy-makers in recent years. 

Mr Papademos agrees with 
the economy ministry on expe- 
diting the Bank of Crete dis- 
posal, by splitting off its non- 
performing assets and offering 
the remainder, including an 
extensive branch network, for 
sale. The hank moved into the 
red last year, posting losses of 
Drl-2bn, mid concern is grow- 
ing over a rising percentage of 
bad loans. t , 

More difficult Is the task of 
persuading the finance minis- 
try, burdened with f undi ng a 
rising public debt, that it can- 



Loufcas Papadernos, Greece’s 
central bank governor 


not afford more than a mar- 
ginal decline In interest rates 
on government paper if the 
dra chma is to remain stable. 
As recession continues, some 
socialist officials are pressing 
for substantial interest rate 
cuts in the next few months. 

Mr Papademos says firmly 
that the course of interest 
rates “must depend on infla- 
tion developments, conditions 
in foreign exchange markets 
and progress in meeting mone- 
tary targets”. 

As the archi- 
tect of the cen- 
tral bank's suc- 
cessful defence 
of the drachma 
following the 
removal of cap- 
ital controls 
last May, Mr 
Papademos’s 
views should 
carry consider- 
able weight. 

To deter 
speculative 
attacks on the 
currency, 
short-term 
interest rates 
were raised to 
high levels, 
while the Bank 
of Greece con- 
trolled liquidity by auctioning 
drachmas to commercial banks 
in return for foreign exchange. 

Mr Papademos is well aware 
that a smooth relationship 
between the central bank and 
the finance ministry, which 
sets interest rates on treasury 
bills and recently assumed 
overall responsibility for debt 
management, is crucial to 
main taining c onfidenc e in the 
drachma. 

He points out that the cost erf 
financing Greece’s public debt 
could be reduced by developing 
the market in government 
securities “Introducing auc- 
tions of treasury bills and pro- 
moting a secondary market in 
government paper". 

Kerin Hope 



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until 1996. While this degree of 
divergence persists, bringing 
the drachma into a formal 
exchange rate link to the Euro- 
pean Monetary System will 
remain a pipe dream. 

As for the long-term goal of 
economic and monetary union, 
it is evident that countries in 
eastern and central Europe are 
for more likely than Greece to 
join a de facto European 
D-Mark zone later in the 1990s. 

Indeed, a chief strategic 
worry for the Athens govern- 
ment must be that, as the EU's 
centre of gravity moves to the 
north and east, the attitude of 
its partners towards economi- 
cally divergent southern states 
will become steadily frostier. 

That could spell problems for 
Greece as the rules for dis- 
bursements of structural funds 
for poorer states are redrawn 
later in the 1990s. Present 
structural fond arrangements 
run until 1999. But in view of 
the likelihood that new mem- 
bers from central and eastern 
Europe will be competing for 
funding early in the next cen- 
tury, later conditions for 
distributing EU funds are 
likely to be much more strin- 
gent. Time for Greece to put its 
economic house in order has 
not yet run out But by the end 
of the century, it may have 
dona 


G reek banking profits will shrink 
this year because of a three- 
week currency crisis, triggered 
by the removal last May of all remain- 
ing exchange controls. 

The drachma’s straggle to fend off 
devaluation also revealed the mutual 
dependence between the big state 
banks which dominate the banking 
market and the finance ministry. 

National Bank, the biggest state- 
owned hank, raised short-term interest 
rates above 70 per cent daring the cri- 
sis to help protect the currency- 
one banker said: “The fact that the 
finance ministry can use the big state 
banks as a policy tool meant the 
drachma could resist speculative 
attack. But it weakens the banking sys- 
tem.” 

Estimates for the banks’ total losses 
from the currency crisis vary from 
Dr70bu to more than DrlOObn. Last 
year, net profits at Greece’s top 10 
banks rose by 14 per cent to DrI30bn. 
This year's projection has been revised 
downwards from 15 to about 8 per cent 
“The banking system as a whole lost 
money in the crisis because it couldn’t 
pass on high Interest costs and couldn’t 
protect Its funding base," a Greek 
banker said. 

It was not just the state banks’ will- 
ingness to raise interest rates to record 
levels that enabled the drachma to ride 
out the crisis unscathed. 

The small size of Greece’s mortgage 
lending market made it possible to sus- 
tain such high rates over a longer 
period. Total mortgage loans, mainly 
handled by two specialist subsidiaries 
of National Bank, are estimated at less 
than Drl.OOObn. 

Consumer lending, mostly in the 
hands of small new private banks is 
also underdeveloped. The market 
received a boost a few weeks before the 
Crists, when the ceiling on consumer 


Kerin Hope looks at the banking sector 

Currency crisis 
triggers losses 


loans was raised to DrSut, only to col- 
lapse when interest rates rase sharply. 

"The small private banks did better 
when the currency was under attack 
because they have a drachma surplus. 
Bat mortgage and consumer lending 
suffered a real setback,” says Statius 
Papageorgiou, managing director of 
Aspis Bank, a new private bank that 
specialises in mortgage lending. 


Hie tight relationship between the 
government and the big state banks, 
whose governors were directly 
appointed by the ruling socialists, 
accounts for the state banks’ readi n ess 
to acquire extra government securities 
when requested. 

Thanks to their help, the finance 
ministry has avoided rescheduling part 
of the public debt 


'Much of the banking system operates for 
the benefit of the government rather than 
the private borrower 1 


The central bank rewarded the banks 
for their part In defending the drachma 
by paying interest for stx months on 
the interest-free portion of their com- 
pulsory reserve requirement. 

But the banks, which have big hold- 
ings of tax-free treasury biffs, the main 
debt instrument, also benefited from a 
surge In Interest rates on government 
paper in May and Jane, aimed at pre- 
venting a flight of capital. 

Interest rates have since dropped 
almost to pre-crisis levels. Neverthe- 
less, the squeeze on lending continues, 
with many banks still reluctant to take 
on new borrowers or extend additional 
credit to existing clients. 


The big state banks agreed to under- 
write about Dr600bn of Drl,300bn 
needed Iasi month to cover a hump in 
debt financing, hi return for increased 
commissions. 

National Bank is being paid off fen- 
its role during tire drachma crisis by 
becoming lead underwriter for future 
government bond issues, which could 
add more Qian DrlObn to its 1994 earn- 
ings. 

"Much of the banking system oper- 
ates for the benefit of the government 
rather than the private borrower,” says 
one local analyst. 

While the state banks control 73 per 
cent of total deposits, they account for 


only 60 per cent of lending. By con- 
trast, the private banks control just 
1&5 per emit of deposits but cover 18.4 
per cent of lending: 

The state banks' role in lending Is in 
fact much smaller, given that a high 
percentage of their portfolio consists of 
non-performing loans. For example, 
some DrSOObn of National Bank's 
Drl,400bn loan book is said to consist 
of doubtfol loans, the result of years of 
lending on political not banking crite- 
ria. 

Not ssprisisgly, their market share 
is shrinking as Greeks turn to the more 
efficient private hanks. 

Both Credit Bank and Ergobank, the 
country’s two largest private banks are 
expanding aggressively, opening new 
branches, investing heavily in new 
technology and improving their retail 
products. 

National Bank's share of Greek 
deposits has fallen from 50 to 40 per 
cent in the past five years. While total 
deposits doubled in the same period, 
the state b anks ’ share declined by 7 
percentage points. 

Smaller state banks need fresh capi- 
tal and better management Investors’ 
appetites have sharpened with the suc- 
cessful privatisation of three small 
state banks under the previous conser- 
vative government 

Nevertheless the government seems 
reluctant to make state banks more 
competitive. For example, Commercial 
Bank, the second- largest state bank, is 
to retain control of Ionian Bank by 
taking up its frill share of a Dr20bn 
rights issue planned for early next 
year. 

Ionian was cleaning up its balance 
sheet, increasing provisions for doubt- 
ful loans, preparing to sell its hotel 
subsidiary and launching new products 
with the aim of attracting an outside 
investor. 





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IV 


FINANCIAL TIMES MONDAY NOVEMBER T 4 1994 


WITH OUR SIGHTS ON 
THE FUTURE 





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GREECE 4 


A a unusually warm 
autumn and a rush to 
the Aegean by eastern 
Europeans should add up to a 
record year for Greece's tourist 
industry. According to several 
projections, arrivals in 1994 
will reach almost ltm. 

The region with highest 
growth was Hniiridiiri in north- 
ern Greece where the number 
of summer visitors grew by 54 
per cent to 485,000 and hotel 
occupancy rates approached 90 
per cent 

Yet two years ago, local hote- 
liers worried about being 
driven out of business by the 
conflict in the former Yugo- 
slavia, the main source of tour- 
ists to northern Greece. 

Thanks to an energetic pro- 
motion campaign by the Halki- 
diiti hoteliers’ union, charter 
flights filled with British, Ger- 
man end R ussian tourists have 
replaced the streams of Yugo- 
slav cars heading south to 
Thessaloniki 

However, improved occu- 
pancy rates this year brought 
little consolation to hoteliers 
elsewhere in the country. 
Greece has 6,500 hotels with 
235,000 beds, but many of these 
are family-owned operations 
with fewer than 100 beds each 
and have little margin for bar- 
gaining with the international 
tour operators who dominate 
the market. 

“We're squeezed on room 
prices so we rely on the bar 
and other extras for earnings." 
says a hotelier on Rhodes. “But 
the northern Europeans are 
more careful with their money 
now - they're not drinking 
whiskies by the pooL" 

The state development bank, 
ETVA, recently agreed to res- 
chedule about DrlOOhn in debts 
owed by 700 hoteliers following 
the government's refusal to 
subsidise interest rates on out- 


Kerin Hope looks at tourism 

Visitors are 
spending less 


standing hotel loans. Accord- 
ing to some estimates, about 20 
per cent of Greece's hotel stock 
is up for sale. 

Another reason for the hotel 
industry’s problems is that 
Greece has become a "sun and 
sea” market for package tour- 
ism rather fan an exotic desti- 
nation for better-off visitors 
looking for ancient sites and 


traditfonal village life and tour- 
ism earnings have failed to 
keep pace with the increase In 
numbers. 

Tourist arrivals rose from 
522m in 1983 to 9.9m in 1993, 
while revenues grew from 
$L7bn to S6bn during the .same 
period- But the average Euro- 
pean tourist spent less than 
$250 m Greece last year, com- 



pared with, about- $350 a decade 
agO- : >.-' ^ - v.w’-'t-* 

’She. tourist season is only 
six months.- long. . Revenues 
would be ..much higher if it 
coubLbe extended by providing 

more Sports and flntnr fednwipnt 
facilities for visitors” says 
Vassflis Ayramoponlos, an 
adviser to the tourism ministry 
cm foreign investment • 

The government’s plans for 
moving Greece’s tourist indus- 
try upmarket are based on -the 
creation of resort complexes 
that will inctede caches. last 
month, the tourism ministry 
awarded four casino licences, to 
international gaining operators 
for a total .ci Drisibn. 

Another six licences* indufl - 
ingiwo in the Athens area and 
others , oh Rhodes, 'Crete ktud 
Corfu, are to be granted in the 
next two months. : - '. 





Kavala Fort, Epirus: plans are to move tourism upmariut owumkOm 


yatt Casino Corpora- 
tion. the gaming arm of 
tiie US botelohaitypald 
Di9JSbn for a 13-year licence to 
build and operate a casino 
resort on a greaiBeld site wit. 
side Thessahauki.^ -Tha 9120m 
in vestment wffl Include a 120- 
bed luxury hotel, a conference 
centre and a part 
Hyatt is alio bidding for one 
of tiie Athens licences, which 
are valued at .about; DriOhn 
each, while London Clubs, the 
UK casino operator, is a fron- 
trunner for the second Uceme, 
which would involve the build- 
ing of a luxur y hotel, 
and park on the sea-front hear 
Piraeus. . 

“The casino projects win do 
much to upgrade Greek tour- 
ism over tire next five years by 
setting higher standards of 
acc ommo dation and entertain- 
ment in the main tourist 
areas.” says Christos Vlaehos 
of Rrr mfln an in vestment con- 
sultancy. 


Profile: Citibank 


Following 
the Greek 
pattern 

Kallithea, a noisy middle-class 
Athenian district of apartment 
blocks and small businesses, is 
the site of what Citibank exec- 
utives call their banking labo- 
ratory. 

Citibank’s Kallithea branch, 
one of 18 around the Greek 
capital, is the model far devel- 
oping the US bank’s consumer 
operations worldwide. Its 
know-how is now being trans- 
ferred to Hungary, where Citi- 
bank will become the first 
internati onal bank to enter the 
retail market. 

Aval Vohra, general man- 
ager for c onsumer hanking in 
Hungary, says: “We expect to 
follow the pattern of Greece, 
because of some basic similari- 
ties in the market. Like 
Greece, Hungary is a cash soci- 
ety with a large number of 
small b usinesses " 

Citibank's first consumer 
branch in Hungary will open 
next spring in Budapest, where 
the bank already has a sizeable 
corporate presence- The con- 
sumer network is expected to 
grow to five branches within 
three years. 

The hank ’s new Hungarian 
staff have had training in 
Greece using systems devel- 
oped in Athens for the local 
market The Hungarian net- 
work will also be supervised 
from Greece and linked with 
Citibank's technology platform 
for Europe, based in Germany. 

Mr Vohra says: “We’re 
introducing 1995 technology for 
customers right away and com- 
bining it with local needs." 

Citibank intends to offer its 
Hungarian customers a 
savings and checking account 
to be followed by credit cards 
and investment products, also 
on the Greek model 
The Kallithea branch has 
pioneered new electronic ser- 
vices such as 24-hour telephone 
banking and paperless deposits 
and withdrawals, which will be 
available in Budapest 
“As one of the bank’s most 
successful operations abroad, 
Greece was a suitable place for 
experimenting. We had lots of 
resources and a very commit- 
ted staff," says Sophie Pali- 
meri, business manager for 
consumer banking. 

Citibank has the largest 
operation of any foreign bank 
in Greece, with assets of 
Dr540bn and extensive ship- 
ping finance and investment 
banking activities. 

In Kallithea, where the 
branch caters to small deposi- 
tors and local businesses, the 
number of accounts has 
increased by 20 per cent since 
the new services were 
launched. 

Traffic through the branch 
has also increased by 20 per 
cent since it was redesigned to 
eliminate queues by providing 
a “greeting" service to custom- 
ers and making account offi- 
cers more accessible. 

Circe Psychogiou, branch 
manager, says: “The day we re- 
opened after the changeover, 
the customers looked quite 
bemused. But it changed the 
quality of the relationships: 
everyone’s much more polite." 

Kerin Hope 


Spending on R&P is low, says Kerin Hope 

Slow to catch on 


Only a few Greek companies 
make research and develop- 
ment a priority. Most prefer to 
pay royalties on imported 
technology. 

Greece lags far behind its 
European Union partners in 
RAD, spending only 0.4 per 
cent of gross domestic product 
on research, compared to an 
average of 2.5 per cent in 
northern E u r o pean countries. 

The lack of opportunity at 
home drives Greek research 
students abroad, usually for 
good. There are now more 
than 5.000 Greek researchers 
working permanently in west- 
ern Europe and the US. 

Nikos Christodoulakis, head 
of the Greek government’s 
research secretariat, believes 
this will change. The catalyst, 
he says, will be increased 
f unding for science amd tech- 
nology from the EITs new 
structural aid package, 
amounting to Ecul50m over 
the next three years. 

“We want to raise research 
spending to 1 per cent of GDP 
fay tiie end of the 1990s and 
find several hundred more 
researchers here in Greece,” 
he says. 

In the past decade the num- 
ber of government-backed 
research operations, including 
new research centres, technol- 
ogy development companies in 
different sectors and technol- 
ogy parks, has grown from 114 
to 270. 

But technology parks attract 
relatively few applicants, 
while private companies show 
little interest in cooperating 
with the development compa- 
nies. 

Mr Christodoulakis is trying 
to link companies directly 
with researchers in order to 
work on specific projects. 


From next year, companies 
joining in tiie programme will 
contribute an average DrSm 
over three years, with addi- 
tional funding for small teams 
of in-house researchers coming 
from tire government. 

“There’s no doubt Hurt we 
have the talent Greece han- 
dles over 3 per cent of tire EITs 
competitive SAD programmes, 
though it has only 0.6 per cent 
of the union’s research popula- 
tion,” he says. 

The scheme is attracting 
more participants than expec- 
ted, as Greek companies start 
looking for ways to remain 

Greek companies are 
startmg to look for ways 
to remain competitive In 
the single market . 

competitive in tiie single mar- 
ket 

One of tiie biggest research 
spenders is Econ Industries, 
an electronics and precision 
components manufacturer, 
winch allocates 10 per cent of 
its Dr20bn turnover on RAD. 

After rapid expansion in the 
late 1980s, the result of win- 
ning co-production work in 
offset deals linked with Greek 
government weapons con- 
tracts, the company wants to 
diversify - 

“We do well out or retro-fit 
kits to upgrade Greek army 
tanks, and we have an export 
market for our power amplifi- 
ers and night vision equip- 
ment but our growth prospects 
are better in the civilian mar- 
ket” says Dimitrios Econom- 
ides, managing director. 

Eton's night vision camera, 
originally designed for mili- 
tary use is being adapted both 


4 




* lb " 

JS"** 

,r 

■Af' 


% <f> 


& 

s-> 


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for civilian electronic surveil- 
lance and security systems and 

for use on yachts: 

Alex Economides, Scon’s 
plant manager, says: “To stay 
competitive, we have to design 
our own electronic products 
and devise something new 
every year. But as there are 
few jobs at home for Greek 
optical engineers, we have a 
very high quality workforce.” 

But the market for research 
in Greece is limited. In north- 
ern Greece, the Adhesives 
Research Institute, the 
research' arm of ACM Wood 
Chemicals, a Greek-owned 
company based in Switzerland 
with manufacturing ventures 
in Canada and Belgium, pro- ; 
vides technology almost exclu- 
sively for export 

ARI has found a way of 
eliminating formaldehyde 
emissions, increasingly seen 
as hazardous to health, from 
resins and additives used in 
making particle board and 
other wood products. 

But its products are not in 
de mand in Greece, where tim- 
ber processors are not 
required by law to limit form- 
aldehyde emissions and export 
mainly to countries without 
strict environmental controls. 

ARI makes cost savings 
through being based in Thes- 
saloniki, where researchers’ 
salaries are lower than in 
western Europe. Through its 
parent company, it develops 
close relationships with cus- 
tomers abroad to make up for 
the lack of interest among 
local maufactarers. 

Pavlos Moura tides, assistant 
head of research, says: “We 
cooperate with some local 
manufacturers in testing oar .. 
products, but they don't goJk- 
into regular production.” ^ 






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FINANCIAL TIMES 

COMPANIES & MARKETS 

©THE FINANCIAL TIMES LIMITED 1994 





TECHNOLOGY 


BRITISH VITA PLC 


Monday November 14 1994 • 


markets 


this week 


Bankers Trust moves derivatives staff 


TONY JACKSON: 

GLOBAL INVESTOR 

US quarterly results showed sharp increases In 
33 50 expected at this 

»age in the cycle. But many manufacturers said 
they were still shedding labour, and quite a few 
were unable to raise prices. Here is productivity 
ana no mistake. If this is what the peak of the eye 
looks like, God help the workers in the next 
downturn. Page 19 



PETER NORMAN: 

ECONOMICS NOTEBOOK 
Globalisation has become a buzz 
word, but nobody seems to know 
how to measure it The most 
dynamic element has been foreign 
investment, other factors include 
trade and various types of 
collaboration. But translating these 
activities into sums of money is marred by gaps in 
the statistics. Page 19 


BONDS: 

Weekend demonstrations in Rome against Mr Silvio 
Berlusconi” s budget proposals together with a 
parliamentary vote of confidence scheduled for 
today should put Italy In the spotlight The country 
is also expected to re-enter the euromarkets soon, 
with a Y400bn ($4.1 bn) eurobond. Page 20 

EQUITIES: 

The US stock market will probably have to 
withstand an Interest rate increase by the Federal 
Reserve this week. It will also face more 
pronouncements from Republican leaders in 
Washington about what they plan to do now they 
possess a majority in both houses of Congress. 

In the UK market, a slowdown at the end of last 
week put the brakes on what had been a growing 
mood of bullishness. Page 23 

EMERGING MARKETS: 

Growth prospects seem to be improving in Latin 
America as political storm clouds dear. However, 
the feelgood factor has yet to assert itself. Page 22 


CURRENCIES; 

It should be a turbulent week for the dollar with a 
critical meeting of the Federal Open Market 
Committee and a bevy of important finandai data, 
page 22 

COMMODITIES: 

The price of palladium Is at a five-year peak. 
Traders will be looking for dues on Its future when 
Johnson Matthey, the precious metals group, 
presents its interim review tomorrow. Page 19 

UK COMPANIES: 

Johnson Matthey is discussing a merger with 
Cookson, the specialist industrial materials group. 
The companies would have a-comblned market 
capitalisation of about £2.5bn. Page 16 

INTERNATIONAL COMPANIES: 

Japan's integrated steel makers have passed their 
interim dividends after disappointing half-year 
results. Page 17 


STATISTICS 


Bam tenting rates 25 

Company meetings 18 

Dhktand payments ...... 18 

FT-A World indteea 19 

FT Guide to amentias -. 22 
Foreign exchanges 25 


London recent issues — 25 
London share service 28-29 

Managed funds 28-Z7 

Money markets _ 25 

New hit bond issues *20 

Worid stock mkt indeea.. 24 


By Richard Waters In New York 

Bankers Trust, the US bank that 
faces two lawsuits over deriva- 
tive instruments it sold, bas 
moved six executives out of their 
jobs after the discovery of appar- 
ent irregularities in its deriva- 
tives operations. 

They include three managing 
directors, among them Mr Jack 
Lavin, one of the bank's most 
senior executives and the head of 
its corporate derivatives busi- 
ness. All six have been put on 
“special assignment" while an 
internal investigation continues. 

The actions, taken on Thurs- 


day but not announced, were 
prompted by the findings of an 
internal review the bank 
launched after it came under 
attack this year from two cus- 
tomers, Procter & Gamble and 
Gibson Greetings. 

Both companies have since 
launched legal actions against 
Bankers Trust, saying they were 
misled about the real risks 
involved in the derivatives they 
bought. The bank has strongly 
denied both claims. 

Bankers Trust's investigation 
is believed to have uncovered 
breaches of its record-keeping 
regulations, as well as sales 


methods that did not meet its 
rules. 

The discovery of those appar- 
ent internal irregularities will 
come as a serious setback for the 
bank, which has been a pioneer 
in the development of the fast- 
growing derivatives markets. It 
will also add to the pressure on it 
to settle the lawsuits quickly. 

All the apparent breaches are 
believed to involve leveraged 
swaps, the type of instruments 
sold to P&G and Gibson. 

Under a normal swap, the hank 
and its customer agree to 
exchange payments in the future 
based on the level of interest 


rates. Such instruments are used 
by companies as protection 
against changes in interest rates, 
or to lower their borrowing costs. 

In a leveraged transaction, 
interest rate changes are magni- 
fied, making such instruments 
far more volatile when rates 
move. 

Procter & Gamble is suing 
Bankers Trust tor Sl30m (£ 81 . 5m) 
after losses this year after US 
interest rates started to rise. In 
an interview last week before the 
executives were relieved of their 
responsibilities, Mr Brian Walsh, 
head of derivatives, said the bank 
had sold leveraged swaps to “less 


than a dozen" companies, all of 
them in the US. The bank refused 
to say how many possible 
breaches of its rules it had 
uncovered. 

Five of the people moved 
worked on the bank's corporate 
derivatives desk, which sold 
these financial instruments to 
companies, while the sixth was 
in a support area. 

In a further move. Bankers 
Trust has merged the corporate 
desk, which had employed 
around 20 people, with its institu- 
tional derivatives operation, 
which sells derivatives to inves- 
tors and financial institutions. 


Good results may be mixed with a tirade against subsidies, writes Andrew Baxter 


Sweet and sour flow 
from British Steel 


Main EU steel producers 



Operating profit before Interest and depreciation 
As 96 of safes 

20 % - 



I f tradition is anything to go 
by. British Steel's half-year 
results today will be accom- 
panied by a molten flow of rheto- 
ric from Mr Brian Moffat, chair- 
man and chief executive, on the 
iniquity of subsidies to rival 
European Union producers. 

Less than a week after the par- 
tial withdrawal of the European 
Commission's rescue plan for the 
industry, Mr Moffat is likely to 
warn that the failure to achieve 
required cuts in EU overcapacity, 
and to tackle the subsidies issue 
adequately, will only store up 
problems for the next downturn. 

The company's irritation, how- 
ever, contrasts strikingly with 
the gleaming numbers ft is likely 
to produce today. Analysts are 
expecting pre-tax profits of 
£130m-£15Qm ($213m-$246m) for 
the half-year to the end of Sep- 
tember, up from £27m a year ago. 

This would put the company 
well on coarse for expected full- 
year profits of £400m-£425m, 
dwarfing the £80m achieved last 
year, which included a £24m pro- 
vision for an. EU fine. And this 
from a company which had. com- 
bined losses of £204m in the two 
previous years. 

British Steel has been consis- 
tently critical of subsidies in 
Europe because it wants a level 
playing field in an important 
market In 1993-94, EU countries 
excluding the UK accounted for 
£1.03bn of its £4l9bn of sales. 

But in. the short term at least 
market conditions have made the 
ill-toted EU rescue plan almost 
irrelevant An upturn in demand 
that began in the UK last year 
and has since spread to the conti- 


nent, along with supply short- 
ages. has transformed the trading 
environment. 

In sterling terms, prices for 
strip products are back up to 1989 
levels, and nearly there for sec- 
tions and plates, says Mr Euan 
Fraser at James CapeL Price rises 
will be “overwhelmingly the 
most important” factor in the 
results today, he says. 

The results will provide an 
important indicator of how 
quickly British Steel’s profit and 
loss account is benefiting from 
the price rises. 

Contracts with big customers 
are fixed annually, which compli- 
cates any forecast But Mr Tim 
Bennett at Albert E. Sharp, the 
Birmingham-based brokers, says 
half-year profits above £130m 
could mak e his full-year forecast 
of £425m - already revised 
upwards from £320m - look con- 
servative. 

M r Fraser believes there 
is still good scope for 
British Steel to raise 
prices further. Other positive fac- 
tors are lower raw material costs 
and interest charges, and a much 
better performance from associ- 
ated companies, especially 
A vesta Sheffield, the Anglo-Swed- 
ish stainless steel producer. 

The much improved profits 
from Avesta leads Mr Bennett to 
expect British Steel's share of 
associated companies' profits to 
be £15m-£20m tor the first halt 
compared with a loss of £8m a 
year ago. In September, British 
Steel raised its stake in Avesta 
from 40 to 49.9 per cent 
Beyond this year, says Mr 


Fraser at James Capel, British 
Steel could easily make £650m in 
1995-96 and £900xn in the follow- 
ing year. He warns, however, 
that “once you look that far out 
it is guesswork”. 

It is in the later 1990s. when 
the next dip in a historically 
cyclical steel market may be 
expected, that the failure of the 
Eli's rescue plan could become 
more relevant to British Steel 
and its ambitions in Europe. 

In evidence to the House of 
Commons Trade and Industry 
Committee earlier this month, 
the company said the outcome of 
the EU restructuring plan had 
brought it minimal benefits. 

The required shake-out of 
excess steel capacity in the EU, 
which would have taken place in 
the recession under tee market 
conditions, had not occurred, it 
said. 

“The fundamental overcapacity 
will still bs there at the next 
downturn," it added, “putting a 
number of producers which have 
benefited from subsidies/debt for- 
giveness in a considerably stron- 
ger position.” 

In a falling market, therefore, 
British Steel is unlikely to find it 
any easier to make profits in 
Europe than it does now. 

British Steel places the blame 
on subsidies, and the significant 
level of state ownership in the 
Industry, which means that 
“profit has not of necessity been 
the primary consideration for 
many companies". 

In only two of the last 20 years, 
it says, have the EU producers 
earned a level of operating profit 
adequate to ensure long-term via- 


SfucarBriOghSM 

bility - 13 per cent of turnover 
according to the Commission (see 
table). 

This scenario ex plains why, in 
recent months, British Steel's 
more confident post-recession 
stance on investment has been 
mainly directed towards projects 
outside Europe, where profits 
long-term are likely to be higher. 

The most important was the 


Sl54m investment, announced 
last month, to build a plate mini- 
mill at the Tuscaloosa Steel sub- 
sidiary in Alabama, but expan- 
sion in the Far East is also con- 
tinuing. 

In contrast British Steel's Euro- 
pean investments, such as the 
£S5m being spent on increasing 
its Avesta Sheffield stake, are 
likely to remain highly selective. 


Car park 
group to 
outline 
buy-out 

By Simon Davies 
In London 

National Parking Corporation, 
owner of the UK’s biggest car 
park operator, is set to reveal 
details of a leveraged buy-out by 
venture capital institutions 
which should value the business 
at abont £650m (Sl.lbn). The 
deal, due to be announced at 
NPC's annual meeting on Decem- 
ber 5, is likely to be the largest 
UK venture capita] buy-out so 
far this year. 

Prudential Venture Managers, 
a venture capital consortium, 
shonld unveil the agreed pur- 
chase of about 72 per cent of 
NPC’s shares, primarily owned 
by founders Mr Ronald Hobson 
and Sir Donald Gosling, and 
charitable foundations of which 
they are directors. NPC owns 
National Car Parks, the biggest 
operator of car parks in the UK. 

Prudential bas brought in 
backers Charterhouse Develop- 
ment Capital, Cinven, Electra, 
Montagu Private Equity, Nat- 
West Ventures and Royal Bank 
Development Capital. They are 
expected to put up about 50 per 
cent of the cost as equity. The 
remainder will be funded by 
bank debt, to be arranged by a 
syndicate led by National West- 
minster Bank. 

The founders sold 28 per cent 
of the company to a number of 
financial institutions in 1986, 
and these are likely to be offered 
shares in the new company, as 
an alternative to the cash offer. 

It is understood that no final 
agreement on pricing has been 
reached. However, due diligence 
is complete, and NPC has written 
to shareholders saying that “we 
hope to be able to give share- 
holders further information at 
the AGM”, when the final offer 
should be revealed. 

The letter to shareholders 
accompanied NPC’s latest profit 
figures, for the year to March. 
Profits before exceptional items 
rose from £48.6m to £50.4m. 

NPC was set up by Mr Hobson 
and Sir Donald in 1949, but for 
the past year the founders have 
been keen to sell. The joint 
chairmen wished to ensure conti- 
nuity for the existing manage- 
ment and turned down the 
option of a share disposal, via 
flotation. 

The attraction for the new 
investors is strong cashflow 
from the carparks, plus growth 
potential in the more dynamic 
Green Flag subsidiary, which 
controls National Breakdown. 


This week: Company news 


VOLVO 

Go-it-alone 
group fires on 
all cylinders 

Volvo has never looked back since 
share h older s scuppered its plans to 
merge with France's Renault, a fact 
that will be underlined when the group 
presents its nine-month figures 
tomorrow. 

Sweden's biggest industrial group is 
expected to report pre-tax profits of 
more than SKrl2bn ($1.64bn) for the 
period, compared with last year's 
SKrLOSbn. Swiss Bank Corp in London 
forecasts a profit of SKriRSbn for the 
wiwff months and SKrl5.5bn for the full 
year. The nine-month figures will 
include about SKrSbn of one-off gains, 
primarily proceeds from the sale of 
non-core businesses. 

But there has still been a huge 
improvement in underlying profits. The 
group has benefited from a big rise in 
car and truck sales, due to strong 
riomanri in its main markets. Compet- 
itiveness has been enhanced by the 
weak krona and by productivity gain s 
after three years of tough cost-cutting. 

In the third quarter, profits should 
exceed SBMbn, including mare .than . 
SKrSOOm in gains associated with the 
winding up of Protorp, the investment 
group. 

Investors will be hoping to hear more 
about the group's disposal plans. The 
company has Mid it plans to seQ off 
SKrtObn of non-core assets before the 
end of 1996 to focus on its core 

au to mo tive businesses. 

The big candidate on the list is BCE, 
the food and drinks group, which is 
valued at more than SKr20bn. The 
company also holds a 28 per cent stake 
in pharmaceuticals group Ph ar m acia , 
but It cannot sell this before 1996 under 
a government pact 

The priorities an. the car side remain 
model development as the group Is 
looking to expand tts currant range, _ 
including adding a new medium-sized 
car. Development is certain to include 
deeper collaboration with other 
manufacturers. 


Vohro 


a-sham price relative m the 
Afflfevflrtden Index 
too — 



JAPAN 

Pocket pagers prove 
popular for Casio 

Casio, the watch and electronic 
products maker, is expected to show a 
firm performance when it reports 
results for the first half on Wednesday. 
The company is enjoying strong 
demand for its pocket pagers while its 
new launches, such as home-use 
printers and personal communications 
systems, are a growing market 

• Sony, the consumer electronics 
maker, Is expected to indicate that it is 
puffing out of the economic downturn 
when it reports its mid-term results on 
Thursday. The company bas been 
working to increase its overseas 
mnnufaft torin g to shield itself from tho 

impact of the high yen. Sales growth in 
Asia, outside of Japan, and the benefits 
of new products such as wide-screen 
television are forecast to have a 
positive impact on profits. 

• Pioneer, the audio-visual company, 
will report results on Friday that are 
likely to show the Impact of the slump 
in the audio market. Unlike its larger 
competitors, Pioneer has been unable to 
benefit from the popularity of 
wide-screen televisions, which it does 
not make. Restructuring is proceeding 
and is likely to enable it to reduce 
losses. 

• Honda, the automobile maker, will 

report results on Friday which are 
expected to indicate Its weakness in the 
Japanese market The company has 
been losing market share in contrast to 
the strength of fix operations in the US. 


OTHER COMPANIES 

Investors awaiting 
German flotation 

Hanover Re: Germany's second largest 
reinsurance group will today announce 
terms for its Dotation, which is 
expected to raise about DM600m 
($4Q0m) later this mouth. The issue will 
be led by Commerzbank and directed at 
domestic and foreign investors. With its 
sister company, Eisen und Stahl 
RQckversichenmg, premium income 
last year totalled DM5.3bn. 

■ Svenska Handelsbanken: One of 
Sweden's biggest banks will tomorrow 
show a sharp improvement in its 
nine-month profit driven entirely by a 
drop in loan losses. The underlying 
performance will probably be weaker 
due to lower lending volumes and 
narrow margins. 

■ BOG Full-year pre-tax profits 
tomorrow at about £ 260 m will be 
sharply down on last year thanks to an 
£85m restructuring provision early this 
year. Interest will centre on underlying 
growth in the healthcare business, 
which has been hit by the US patent 
expiry on the anaesthetic gas Forane. 

■ British Gas: Third-quarter results are 
due on Wednesday. The company 
usually reports a loss at this time, 
because the period covers the months of 
lowest demand for natural gas. 

Analysts expect a loss of £200m ($328m) 
to 2240m. The results coincide with the 
Queen's Speech, in which the UK 
government is expected to announce 


UK property 


Share prices relative to the 
FT-SE-A AH -Share Index 



1093 1994 


Source: FT GraphHe 

new legislation to break British Gas’s 
monopoly over 18m residential 
customers in 1998. 

■ National Australia Bank: The 
strongest of Australia's “big four” 
banking groups is expected to announce 
after-tax profits of about A$1.7bn 

($1 J5bn) on Thursday for the year to 
end-September. In 1992-93, the bank 
made S1.13bn after tax including a 
A$59m abnormal gain. The strong 
economic recovery in Australia is 
benefiting the banks, as strong figures 
from Westpac demonstrated last week. 
NAB has already expressed confidence 
about repeating the first half's AS805m 
(before abnormls) in the second six 
months. 

■ Whitbread: The UK brewer opens the 
sector's reporting season with interim 
results on Thursday. Good summer 
weather is expected to lift pre-tax 
profits to about £138m against £132J3m, 
with the dividend up 6 per cent 5.3p. 


Companies In this Issue 


Aegon 

17 

Astray 

16 

BOC 

15 

Bankers Trust 

15 

Barclays 

16 

British Gas 

15 

British Steel 

15 

Casio 

15 

Chrysalis 

16 

Cookson 

18 

GDTV 

IS 

GE Capital 

16 


Gambro 

17 

Greyhound Lines 

17 

Hanover Be 

15 

Hardy Underwriting 

16 

Honda 

15 

Inco 

17 

Johnson Matthey 

18 

Kawasaki Steel 

17 

Kobe Steel 

17 

NAB 

16 

NKK 

17 

NPC 

15 


News Corp 

17 

Nippon Steel 

17 

Pioneer 

15 

Shawm ut 

16 

Sony 

15 

Sumitomo Metal 

17 

Svenska HanQetehkr 

15 

Telia 

17 

Telstra 

17 

Toad Jnnovaitons 

16 

Union 

16 

Ushers 

16 

Volvo 

IS 

Whnbread 

IS 


This announcement appears as a matter of record only. 



BRITISH BUS 

P L C 

£ 75 , 000,000 
Credit Facility 

Underwritten and arranged by 

Bank of Boston 

Co-li nderwrite re 

Bank of Scotland 

NatWest Markets Acquisition Finance 

Lenders 

Banque Indosuez 
BHF-BANK 
GiroCredit Bank 
N M Rothschild & Sons Limited 
Sodete Generale 

Legal Advisors to Bank of Boston 
Taylorjoynson Garrett 

The undersigned underwrote, agented and distributed 
this financing through Us Special Industries Group 
and Corporate Finance Department 



BANK OF BOSTON 

39 Victoria Street, London SW1H GED 071-932 9264 





FINANCIAL TIMES MONDAY NOVEMBER!* ' 1994 ' 

COMPANIES AND FINANCE - ' . .. 


Cookson and JM may 


Barclays sells US credit 
arm at $290m premium 

business in the US. nature of its business. How- 

Tile company, which had ever, Mr 'Joel Balvard, the US 
receivables of 52 Jbn at the end bank’s •: chairman . and chief 
of September and .'16 offices executive, said the deal was 
around the US, is beingboughi “financially attractive and ' 
by Shawmut, the New immediately accretive to. earn- 
England-baaed hanVmg group. : ■ ings per share" for Shawmul 
Barclays Business Credit, . The ..credit c ompan y. which . . 
which made profits of $676m '• has 300 employees, originates 
before tax last year and $58. Lm and- ^syndicates loans- - - of 
In tbp nine months tn.andA»p. between $5m and $150m to 
tember, had net assets of medium-sized companies. It 
5213.7m at the end of last year, had beem part of Aetna, die US 
The price paid by .'Shawmut - insurance group before Bar- 
represents a substantial multi- days bought it in - 1980. The 
pie of this 1993 book - value, sale will result In a pre-tax 
reflecting the highly profitable profit to Bardays.nf 5271m. 

Toad Innovations raising £2.5m 


By Richard Waters 
in New York 

Barclays has reached 
agreement to sell its asset- 
based lending business in the 
US for a premium of 5290m 
(£177m) over its book value, a 
price winch reflects the 
company's strong brack record. 

The sale of Barclays Busi- 
ness Credit, which is expected 
to be completed early next 
year, Is the latest in a series of 
disposals intended to leave the 
UK hanking group with a focus 
on investment banking 


By David Blackwell 

Johnson Matthey, the precious 
metals group, and Cookson. 
the specialist industrial 
materials group, are consider- 
ing a merger. 

The two companies, which 
have grown closer over the 
past 12 months, said yesterday 
that discussions were at a 
relatively early stage. But it is 
understood that if a deal is 
done, events will move 
quickly, possibly being 
completed by the end of the 
year. 

Any recommendations to 
shareholders would “be based 
on the relative contributions of 
each company to the merged 


Union sells 
Sabre 
for £8.4m 

Union, the discount bouse, is 
selling Sabre, its sales aid leas- 
ing division to GE Capital, tbe 
financial services side of Gen- 
eral Electric of the US, for 
£8.4m cash. 

The move marks tbe conclu- 
sion of Union’s withdrawal 
from sales aid leasing. 

Payment of £2.7m is 
defeircd for three years. 

The sale will release £30m of 
inter-company funding used to 
finance Sabre and generate 
profits of about £1.5m. Sabre 
was acquired in 1988 and pro- 
vides sales aid finance on 
small ticket items such as 
office equipment 

For the 1993 year it achieved 
profits before tax - and £l.Lm 
of group management costs - 
of £3. 68m, against losses of 
£3-26m, on turnover of £14m 
(£19. 6m). The results were 
helped by lower debt provi- 
sions of £1.37m, compared 

with £5.73m. 

Net asset value at comple- 
tion is expected to be about 
£3.6m. 

Union said that Sabre had 
been restrained from writing 
as much new business as it 
would have liked by the fall in 
the gronp's capital base in 
1991-92. That had resulted in 
an ageing portfolio. 

If it had remained in the 
group. Sabre's growth and 
profitability would have been 
constrained for the foreseeable 
future. 


group," the two companies 
said. 

Mr David Davies, chairman 
and chief executive of Johnson 
Matthey, has made no secret of 
his ambition to take the com- 
pany into the FT-SE 100 Index. 

The two companies would 
have a combined market capi- 
talisation of about £2.5bn. 
annual sales of £3.5bn and fore- 
cast profits of more than 
£20Qm. 

JM, which reports its interim 
results on November 24, is 
expected to make pretax prof- 
its of at least £90m for the 
financial year ending March. 

Cookson. which is expected 
to make profits of about £115m 
in the year to end-December 


By Ralph Atkfns, 

Insurance Correspondent 

The trickle of extra corporate 
capita] into Lloyd's of London 
continues today with the 
announcement of a new com- 
pany that plans to raise up to 
£9m to invest in the 1995 
underwriting year. 

Hardy Underwriting plans to 
invest exclusively in Lloyd's 
syndicate 383, managed by 
Hardy (Underwriting Agen- 
cies), which specialises in heli- 
copters among other business. 

The company intends to 


By Richard Wolffs 

Ushers, the Wiltshire-based 
brewer, aims to double the size 
of Its pub chain after coming to 
market later this month. 

The group, which publishes 
its pathfinder document tomor- 
row wants to clear existing 
debt before expanding its 
estate of more than 460 pubs. 

At present its financing 
includes £35m of senior debt 
and an interest rate “collar” 
which cost £1.6m this year. 
Further borrowings are subject 
to the agreement of a syndicate 
of 11 banks. 

The cash raising is expected 
to value the company at £ 100 m. 

Ushers, whose Trowbridge 
brewery dates back to 1824. 
was formed in 1991 after a 


before restructuring costs, has 
been turned round by Mr Rich- 
ard Oster, its flamboyant US 
chief executive. He has taken 
the group out of its nan-core 
businesses, s elling 25 engineer- 
ing subsidiaries earlier this 
year. 

Last December Cookson 
bought JM*s jewellery materi- 
als operations for £37 m, and in 
March the two linked their 
>»«»ranri«*s inte rests in a venture 
that made them number two in 
the world market The latter 
Huai was described by Mr Oster 
at the time as “a sort of dream 
come true". 

The logical step towards a 
full-blown merger is thought to 
have been instigated by Mr 


raise the cash via an offer of 
4.5m units of one ordinary 
share at lOOp and £1 of 10 per 
cent convertible unsecured 
loan stock at par. 

Other companies expected to 
announce plans to raise funds 
in time for 1995 include the 
Brockbank managing agency, 
which runs some of the largest 
Lloyd’s syndicates. Brockbank 
is aiming to raise Up to £50m, 
sufficient to underwrite about 
£95m of business on Brockbank 
syndicates. 

Meanwhile Wellington 
Underwriting, which is seeking 


£71m managemunt buy-in from 

Courage. 

Mr Roger North, chief execu- 
tive. said the company would 
benefit from the large brew- 
eries selling pubs in the 
south-west, where it is the 
largest regional brewery. 

“We are looking for the 
small town and village commu- 
nity pub, rather than the town 
centre boozer.” he said. 

The group has already paid 
off £15m of debt in its three 
years of existence and invested 
another £13m in modernising 
its pubs and brewery. 

The brewery’s first results 
are also due tomorrow. Ana- 
lysts forecast opmating profits 
of £lL9m on turnover of £54m, 
compared to last year’s profits 
of £13.4m on £48 An turnover. 


merge 

Robert Malpas. Cookson 's 
chairman. He would be likely 
to remain on the board of the 
new company as a non-execu- 
tive director. 

Mr Davies is expected to be 
chairman. He took on the addi- 
tional role of chief executive at 
JM only In March after Mr 
Richard Wakeling resigned. 

Mr Oster would be chief 
executive. 

It is not the first time that 
Cookson has taken an interest 
in JM: it took a stake in 
the late 1980s, but had to 
sell. 

The deals between the two 
companies over the last year 
have led to a much more 
friendly atmosphere this time. 


a stock market listing, is due 
to complete arrangements this 
week for placing 30m shares at 
lOOp. Its efforts have been hin- 
dered by the failure of Lloyd's 
council last week to approve 
new arrangements allowing 
corporate companies to invest 
in each other. 

Mr Peter Middleton. Lloyd's 
chief executive, estimates that 
corporate investment next year 
will be only about £250m more 
than the total £900m commit- 
ted in 1994, the first year in 
which corporate capital was 
allowed. 


Chrysalis buys 
50% stake in 
comedy vehicle 

Chrysalis, the music and media 
group, has acquired a 50 per 
cent stake in GDTV, a newly 
formed independent production 
company set up as a vehicle to 
exploit the works of Mr Geoff- 
rey Dean, one of Britain's most 
successful young comedy writ- 
ers. 

His recent credits include 
Birds of a Feather. May to 
December, and Chef. 

Put and call options, exercis- 
able after August 31 1998, have 
been created on the remaining 
50 per cent If exercised. Chrys- 
alis will pay an amount linked 
by a formula to GDTVs profits 
but subject to a cap of £2 .5m 
plus 10 per cent of any excess 
of the product of the formula 
over this amount 


Asprey 
furious 
at £20m 
loan ‘leak’ 

By David Blackwell 

Tbe Bank of Scotland will 
today be launching an investi- 
gation into bow documenta- 
tion purporting to come from 
the bank on a £ 20 m loan facil- 
ity for Asprey was made 
public. 

Asprey. jeweller to the 
super-rich, said yesterday that 
it would be taking legal action 
against tbe Mail on Sunday, 
which published a story say- 
ing that the company was in 
potential default of the facility 
and might face receivership - 
a suggestion Asprey dismissed 
as absurd. 

Tbe bank is considering 
making a statement of its own 
later this week. 

Yesterday it said the loan 
facility was “being conducted 
in accordance with the 
terms of tbe agreement 
between the b ank and the 
company, and is therefore 
fully available”. 

Asprey. which will announce 
its interim results on Novem- 
ber 23, said the Mail on Sun- 
day story “appears to have 
been designed to cause maxi- 
mum damage to Asprey*s repu- 
tation and standing in the 
market place”. 

The company's shares tum- 
bled from 3l0p to 200p in early 
September after a warning 
that the loss of a few big- 
spending customers would 
depress profits. 

Last month market rumours 
about its financial position 
knocked the shares back to 
135p. 

The company was forced to 
put out a statement to the 
Stock Exchange asserting that 
the rumours were “without 
basis in fact”. 

The shares closed on Friday 
at 157p. 

Asprey said the Mail on Sun- 
day had not contacted the 
company or the Bank of Scot- 
land about its story, which 
appeared to be “based on a 
draft, unsigned, internal mem- 
orandum purporting to ema- 
nate from the bank”. 

Asprey added: “If the 
document Is genuine, the com- 
pany believes that it may have 
been obtained by unlawful 
means.” 


By Richard Gourtay, Growing 
Business Correspondent 

Toad Innovations, a car 
security company, is planning 
to raise about £2An through a 
private placing of shares that 
will be traded under the Stock 
Exchange's lightly regulated 
Rule -L2 facility. 

The shares will move to tbe 
Alternative Investment Market 
when it is launched next year 
as a replacement for the 
Unlisted Securities Market 

Toad has negligible sales 
but is developing a range 
of products to protect 
car and commercial vehicles, 
including an in-car camera 


which records attempted 
break-ins. 

Mr Chris Evans, founder and 
non-executive chairman, has 
raised money in the last two 
years far two other companies 
- Chiroscience and Celsis - 
both of which, availed them- 
selves of Stock Exchange rules 
allowing biotechnology compa- 
nies to float on the main list 
without an established record. 
Both were lossmakers. 

Other private backers from 
Toad’s launch in March 1993 
include Mr John Precious, 
chairman of Celsis and former 

finance director of Wellcome, 
and Mr Bill Edge, director of 
Grosvenor Venture Managers. 


The Toad issue is .sponsored 
by Henry Cooke, an active pro- 
moter of issues underRnLe 4-2, 
formerly known as Rule 
535.2. 

It said there had been a 
steady flow of new Issues this 
year, many of which planned 
to move to the AIM. 

Rule 4H Issues are particu- 
larly tax efficient for some 
investors. Although they have 
quoted shares they are consid- 
ered private companies, which 
means investors can shelter 
capital gains tax liabilities 
crystallised on the sale of 
almost any asset by investing 
the gains fit shares of compa- 
nies traded »nrinr the rule. 



CROSS BORDER M&A DEALS 


- 

BIDDER/INVESTOR 

TARGET 

SECTOR 

VALUE 

COMMENT 

Kerry (Ireland) 

Units of ASad Domecq 

(UK) 

Food 

£248m 

AMed begins 
food rflsposate 

Forte (UK) 

Meriden (France) 

Hotels 

£21 7m 

Deal finaBy 
clinched 

Empresas La Modema 
(Mexico) 

Asgrow Seed Co (US) 

Agriculture 

2189m 

ELM continues 
dverafficatton 

Hyundai (S Korea] 

NCR (US) 

Semiconductors 

£188m+ 

Strategic buy 
from AT&T 

Chtaifon Global (Taiwan)/ 
Volkswagen (Germany) 

Cfiinchun Motor (JV) 

Vehicle 

manufacture 

£80m 

New production 
venture 

Kenwood AppSances (UK) 

Arista (Itsly) 

Household 

appliances 

£22m . 

International 
strategy buy 

CRH (Ireland) 

Cameras Carro Negro 
(Argentina) 

Bidding 

materials 

£20m 

CRH’s emerging 
market debut 

EDS (US) 

GCS (N Zealand) 

Computer 

services 

£1&3m 

Continues NZ 
expansion 

Cookson (UK) 

Alpha GrtUo 
(Germany) 

Bectronlcs 

£10 An 

Buying out JV 
partner 

Vodafone (UK) 

Robert Bosch Telecom 
(Fiance} 

Mobile telecoms 

n/a 

Acquiring fufl 
control 


Hardy seeks £9m for syndicate 


Ushers aims to double 
pubs after cash raising 






tact) r 
jmione^i 







This announcement appears as a matte- of record only. 




E F F ERSON 

IV HOT 

GROUP pic 

has acquired the 


Paper & Paper Packaging 
Operations 


Of 


rrtTTl>» 

SAINT-GOBAIN 


The undersigned initiated the transaction and acted as exclusive 
financial adviser to Jefferson Smurfrt Group pic in the acquisition. 



Bankers Trust International PLC 


Member of SFA 


FT 


FINANCIAL TIMES 

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- A Revolution in the Making? 


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This high-level meeting will review current developments in biotechnology and 
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ISSUES INCLUDE: 

• Links between Pharmaceutical Majors and Biotechnology Companies 

• The Clinton Healthcare Reforms and the US Biotechnology Industry 

• The Government's Role in Fostering Biotechnology 

• Is a Funding Crisis Imminent? 

• The Problem of Patents 


SPEAKERS INCLUDE: 

• Dr Keith McCuUagh 

Chief Executive. British Biotechnology 
Chairman, Bioindustry Association 

• Mr Carl B Feldbaum 

President 

Biotechnology Industry Association 

• Professor Dr Horst Dieter Scblumberger 

Biotechnology Co-ordination 
Bayer AG 

• Professor Ernst-Giinter Afting 
Chairman & Chief Executive Officer 
Rousel Uclaf 


Professor Dr Jurgen Drews 
President. International Research 
and Development, Hoflmann-La Roche Inc 
President, SAGB 

Mr Teoh Yong Sea 
Director/General Manager 

Singapore Bio- In novations Pte Ltd 

Mr G Steven Burrill 
Marching Director 
Burrill & Craves 


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FINANCIAL TIMES MONDAY NOVEMBER 14 1994 


COMPANIES AND FINANCE 


Weak Japanese recovery 
hits results at steelmakers 


By Mtchiyo Nakamoto in Tokyo 


\ . The weakness 

of Japan's eco- 
nomic recovery 
and worldwide 
competition 
Steel put pressure on 
. _ the country’s 

integrated steel makers, which 
reported disappointing half- 
year results and passed their 
interim dividends. 

Losses by the five large steel 
companies more than doubled 
in aggregate at the recurring 
level, but analysts pointed out 
that recovery is on the way. 

The companies expect 
restructuring to result in a 
substantial improvement in 
the second half, enabling them 
to cut losses substantially or 
return to profitability. 

"The benefits of restructur- 
ing will definitely come 
through in the second half, so 
we believe we will be able to 
make a small profit.” Nippon 
Steel said. 

Nevertheless, the companies 
warned that the outlook for the 
second half remained uncer- 
tain. Private capital spending 
In Japan is not expected to 
pick up strongly and the for- 
eign exchange situation is still 
unpredictable. 

In the first half, firm demand 
from overseas markets, partic- 
ularly the US, failed to make 


Interim results to September 1994 (Ym) 


Aegon lifts 
forecast 
after good 
nine months 


News Corn, Telstra in joint venture 


By Nikki Tait 
in Sydney 



Sales 

Operating 

Recurring 

Net 



profit 

profit* 

profit 

Kawasaki Steel 
1994 

441.675 

-2,334 

-18.930 

-23,708 

1993 

522,289 

6,906 

-8.314 

•8.344 

Forecast, year 
Kobe 

940,000 




1994 

524,265 

25,091 

•9,525 

-6,654 

1993 

544,625 

22.442 

-8.161 

-5.794 

Forecast, year 

NKK 

1,074,000 




1994 

506,876 

-14.074 

-37,905 

•36.814 

1993 

537,340 

-1,974 

-15,402 

-14,735 

Forecast, year 
Nippon Steel 

1.185.000 




1994 

966,508 

3.647 

-28.049 

-57.508 

1993 

Forecast, year 
Sumitomo Metal 

1.060,371 

-8,339 

-16.700 

-23.225 

1994 

475,914 

12.086 

-24.184 

-23,484 

1993 

507.953 

11,400 

-9,010 

-9,510 

Forecast, year 

* flercra artaoranary 

1,030.000 

i and Eta 


Source: es 

VTKVVtV /OMTIl 


By Ronald van de Krol 
tn Amsterdam 


up for the fall in capital spend- 
ing in the Japanese market, 
the impact of falling unit 
prices and the high yen. There 
was a moderate pick-up in 
demand from the motor vehicle 
and electrical industries, but 
falling steel prices prevented 
the companies from reaping 
the benefits of the upturn. 

Large domestic users in the 
shipbuilding, automotive and 
electrical industries have 
pointed to the price differential 
between Japanese steelmakers 
and those based overseas, such 


Inco to proceed with 
Indonesian expansion 


By Bernard Simon in Toronto 


Inco. the world's biggest nickel 
producer, is going ahead with a 
US$500m expansion at PT Inco. 
its 58 per cent-owned subsid- 
iary in Indonesia. 

The project, which will boost 
PT Inco's annual production by 
half over the next six years to 
about 150m lbs of nickel, is 
part of the Canadian parent’s 
plan to lift its production by 20 
per cent by the end. of the 
decade. Inco's output totalled 
370m lbs in 1993. about one 
quarter of worldwide supplies. 

The expansion follows the 
go-ahead for several other pro- 
jects at Inco's mines in the 
Canadian provinces of Ontario 
and Manitoba. 

The viability of these pro- 


jects has been unproved by a 
recent surge in nickel prices. 
The Loudon Metal Exchange 
price has climbed from a low of 
$1.80 a lb in Sept 1993 to about 
$3.35 at the end of last 
week. 

The expansion at PT Inco, 
located in Sulawesi, will 
Include the construction of a 
fourth smelting line at Soroako 
and additional hydro-electric 
generating capacity on the 
Larona River. 

Japan's Sumitomo Metal 
Mining owns 20 per cent of PT 
Inco. with the balance held by 
public shareholders and five 
other Japanese companies. 

PT Inco is one of the world’s 
lowest-cost nickel producers, 
with about 25 years of reserves 
at planned production rates. 


NEWS DIGEST 


Telia profit 
more than 
doubled 


Telia, the Swedish state-owned 
telecommunications group, 
more than doubled profits in 
the first nine months, lifting 
its income after financial items 
to SKr4.68bn (9645m) from 
SKrL98bn, writes Christopher 
Brown-Homes In Stockholm. 

Cost-cutting enabled it to 
overcome intensifying competi- 
tion In its home market. The 
company has shed more than 
15,000 jobs in the past three 
years, cutting its workforce to 
less than 33,000. 

The recovery in the Swedish 
economy contributed to a 4 per 
cent rise In operating revenues 
to SKr27.38bn. However, 
domestic demand has been 
restricted by reduced public 
spending and a slowdown in 
residential construction. 

The company predicts full- 
year results substantially 
higher than last year, when 
profits were SKr355bn. 


cent jump in sales to SKr7.27bn 
and reduced interest costs. The 
group Is optimistic about pros- 
pects. In 1993 full-year profits 
amounted to SKr976m. 

Gambro became part of 
Incentive, one of the most 
important companies in the 
Wallenberg sphere, in June. 

Nine-month sales grew by 9 
per cent, excluding currency 
factors and the sale of the 
group's intensive care and 
anaesthesia division. 

Operating profits were 8 per 
cent higher at SKrl.05bn. 


KLM in talks 
with Cathay 


KLM Royal Dutch Airlines 
is in preliminary discussions 
with Cathay Pacific, the Hong 
Kong-based airline, about the 
possibilities for commercial 
co-operation, Renter reports 
from Amsterdam. 


Renown chief 
demoted 


Swedish medical 
group ahead 

Gambro, the Swedish medical 
equipment specialist, lifted pre- 

..at. in fhp 


tax profits by 17 per cent in the 
nine months to September to 
SKr837m, writes Christopher 
Brown-Homes. 

The improvement, from 
SKr715m, reflected an 11 per 


The president of Renown. 
Japan's largest producer of 
clothing, has been demoted in 
a rare gesture to demonstrate 
the loss-making company’s 
determination to reduce the 
workforce, writes , William 
Dawkins in Tokyo. 

Mr Mahiro Matsuzuka. 
Renown's president since 
March 1991, will become 
vice-president 

The move coincides with the 
announcement that Renown 
will cut 700 of its 4,000 jobs by 
February 1996 in an attempt to 
puli out of five years of losses. 


ANGLO SCOTTISH 
INVESTMENT 
TRUST PLC 


woflowing a auccmful t»lw-«er of the ibcscuamrd owipanj (The Owjwrn by J«P an 
Aum Thus pk (-JAT1 in IflWIMS.JAT cumpufeorty aajmral a number of onfinvy 
jhwn in the i»pkal of the Company purmm m action 2»(l) oTthe Computes Art 1948. 
■■Tie fellovias «*tanhofcfcn rf the Compaq rim unitary we enmputorilr 
acqitad byJAl' fid not elaun the emtataarton part by JAT bnhrir dun 

Mk. Boy Belter JUC B. Mr* SheUa Soil, Few H Cl.* Us* Onto* R Uaqr Eiq 
Doble Be* Red** LW Ota &*. NkU»V UwUmUm,, FWer J L 

unit Fm. Oakham H ones Mu Bu*o» Jo— .Pavtd Monte* Esq AiCH, 

Mu Amanda Mary Maoldsc.jantaA B OM Esq, MBs Down Pncm.Mn KaiUccn 
u ppw*. Mlw rmidi Dlooc Samar I, gw tan Itad hew, Ma HBtfifw 
SbZrijea Saw A See, Mm J-BS. <3 Smtih, K— a Vestas tank— o Hat 

FT— -.Qrtl brad Um 

w^,,r»«rBWhW!H«».'Mrm|W»HbA>»Dgw»»,na^PTOw S « . . hM« Lfanfd, 
Mmhw No ra l prn Llmhid. 

Seatnika anil art «*«»ei«wg aaaWermim «rta* we 

Wat tor the ebow owutoiwl p*n« h*t been pfid mio coon. 

An? Meh eMbaitfsoWer trf dm Ccwip«r not w*pt the JAT otfcr »nd »lio data 

lobe aaWed to wch monk* ml may »ppiy w The Hcowm Geantd rfd- 

jf i cm *z the Cm FnA OBke, 22 lOag iwaj , Leaden EC2B OLE in 
cooiMilda the nwiunent. pojWCM MM, or a** ofdeoHot «fcb Hu «fid money and 
scours or of tte Beane thereof. 

LJ*cd UdiKtwnbtr, IW 
MR G. RITCHIE 

tOBUSTATOUKO 

TEN GK0RGR STREET 
[tdMUSGU KJUIOZ 


as in Brazil and Korea, and 
requested price cuts from 
domestic suppliers. The differ- 
ential has been widened by the 
yen's continuing rise against 
other leading currencies. 

Domestic manufacturers 
have generally complied with 
the requests, partly because 
"the quality of Korean steel, in 
particular, is improving,” 
noted an official at Sumitomo 
Metal industries, which 
reduced unit prices by 8 per 
cent in the period. 

See Lex 


Aegon, the Netherlands' 
second-largest insurance 
group, reported a 19 per cent 
increase in third-quarter net 
profit to FI 285m (5167m), Tram 
FI 210m a year earlier, and 
said it was lifting its forecast 
slightly for full-year results. 
Aegon has not given a specific 
target Tor 1994 profit. 

The rise in the latest quarter 
takes resalts for the nine 
months to September to 
FI 835.6m, up 13.4 per cent 

Premium turnover in the 
first three quarters jumped by 
45 per cent to FI I0.74bn from 
FI 7.4 Ibn. Much of the increase 
was due to the first-time con- 
solidation of Scottish Equita- 
ble Life in the UK. Without 
this factor, premium turnover 
would have risen by around 
6.6 per cent. 

Aegon said it would be using 
a new method of accounting 
for capital gains and losses on 
share and property invest- 
ments for its own account. 

The new calculations, which 
anticipate impending Euro- 
pean Union regulations, would 
have "positive implications” 
for the level of future divi- 
dends. it said. 


Mr Rupert Murdoch's News 
Corporation and Telstra, Aus- 
tralia’s large government- 
owned telecommunications 
group, have formed a ASlbn 
i[JSS752m> joint venture to pro- 
ride pay-TV services via the 
Telstra cable network. 

They will have equal shares 
In the venture, although Tel- 
stra will own 100 per cent of 
the cable infrastructure. 

Confirmation of the tie-up. 
which has been rumoured for 
many weeks, comes two 
months after Optus, the rival 


national telecommunications 
carrier, announced plans to 
link with Mr Kerry Packer's 
Nine Network. Seven Network, 
and Continental Cablevision of 
the US, to develop a similar 
cable network. Nine is Austra- 
lia's biggest commercial TV 
operation, while Seven is a 
smaller network. 

However, the Optus joint 
venture, known as Optus 
Vision, aims to deliver local 
telephone calls, as well as 
pay-TV and other interactive 
services, and will involve con- 
siderable aerial (rather than 
underground) cabling. 

The Telstra/News joint ven- 


ture will focus on "broadband 
home entertainment services, 
and pay-TV in particular". 

Optus Vision plans to spend 
AS3bn over the next four years. 
News/Telstra put the initial 
outlay at AS300m - split 
equally - although the total 
investment over the next five 
to seven years could rise to 
around ASlbn. 

In addition, Telstra’s expen- 
diture on the cable infrastruc- 
ture is put at around A$3.Sbn. 

Telstra said its new cabling 
had now “passed” more than 
50.000 homes - although final 
connections to individual 
homes would still have to be 


installed - and it hoped to 
reach 100.000 homes by the end 
of 1994. 

The aim is to be able to serve 
4m homes by 1999. 

The partners hope to start 
providing pay-TV services 
"early in 1995”. There have 
been numerous promises about 
pay-TV facilities in Australia, 
but as yet consumers have yet 
to see a package go on sale. 

There are now the two 
cable-based consortia, plus the 
three satellite licence holders - 
Australis Media, Continental 
Century. and the 
publicly-owned Australian 
Broadcasting Corporation. 


Greyhound agrees terms of restructuring 


By Richard Tomldns 
In New York 


Greyhound Lines, the loss- 
making US bus company, has 
staved off a threat to force it 
into bankruptcy by agreeing 
fresh terms for a financial 
restructuring with a group of 
dissident bondholders. 

Earlier this month, a group 
of convertible debenture hold- 
ers filed an involuntary bank- 
ruptcy petition against the 
company because they consid- 
ered they were getting a bad 
deal under the original 
restructuring terms. 

On Friday, the company and 
its bondholders said that they 


had agreed in principle to a 
deal under which bondholders 
would receive 45 per cent of 
the recapitalised company's 
common stock in exchange for 
their S98.9m worth of convert- 
ible debentures. The bond- 
holders will also get two seats 
on the board. 

The joint statement said the 
bankruptcy petition would be 
withdrawn as soon as the 
restructuring was complete. 

Although the imminent 
threat of bankruptcy has been 
averted. Greyhound remains 
troubled. 

Since emerging from its last 
bankruptcy in October 1991, it 
has been been pummelled by 


competition from low-cost 
airlines and regional bus com- 
panies. 

Passenger numbers were 
down nearly 9 per cent in the 
nine months to September and 
the company has reported a 
series of quarterly losses. 

in July. Greyhound 
announced It would cease to 
operate long-distance bus ser- 
vices all over the US and 
would become a regional oper- 
ator of relatively short-distance 
services in selected markets. 

This was followed in August 
by the departure of the compa- 
ny’s chief executive and In Sep- 
tember by proposals for a 
financial restructuring. 


However, bondholders dis- 
agreed with the plan because 
they were offered only 40 per 
ceut of the company’s common 
stock in exchange for their 
bonds. 

Under the revised plan, 
bondholders will own 45 per 
cent of the company and Grey- 
hound will raise $35m by the 
issue of new stock equivalent 
to 29 per cent of the company. 
As a result, existing sharehold- 
ers will see their stake diluted 
to 26 per eent- 

Greyhound hopes the injec- 
tion of cash will see it through 
the lean winter months and 
provide the basis for a return 
to profitability. 



f... ;J ^ 


Arcades? Zap.*,One ; boring, video game? Kerpow. TeleWest plans to offer video games - 


month -Itranamitted through our network to a customer’s games console. It should 


all start in 1995; Anil for those keen to move up to the next level? Interactive games against 


other subscribers are envisaged for further down the line 


LEADING CABLE TELEVISION AND TELEPHONY IN THE UK. 


Thu advertisement 


.s issued by TaieWes, Commons, n,u oh. and h,n W-W •>/ Ban.or Limned, a member of The SeeunMI Fu-ures Authority Limited, solely For the pu.poae of Section 57 of the Financial Services Act 1 8B6 





UNDE AG 


Final Maturity of the Warrants 
to acquire 

Common Shares of Linde AG 

from the DM 150,000,000 - Bonds 
of the 3!A%DM Bonds of 1984/1994 with Warrants 
attached of Linde international BY, 
Amsterdam, The Netherlands 

Pursuant to the Conditions of the Warrants the Subscription Right 
arising from the Warrants (WKN 869 400) attached to the above 
bond issue may be exercised until December 15, 1994 inclusive. 
After that date the Warrants are no longer valid- 
The Subscription Price is DM 34333 per Unde share of DM 50 
par value. Shares arising from the Warrants are entitled to the full 
dividend tor the respective business year of Unde AG. in which 
the Subscription Right is exercised. To exercise the Subscription 

Right, the bearer of the Warrant must, through any Receiving Agent 
ftle a written notice with the Warrant Agent the Deutsche Bank 
AkUengeseUschaft, Frankfurt am Main. The required notification 
form is available from any of these Receiving Agents. The Exercise 
Notice is binding. At the time the notice is filed, the Subscription 
Price must be paid and the Warrant be presented together with 
all Receipts not yet called by the Warrant Agent. The Exercise 
Notice becomes effective only If the Deutsche Bank Ak tieno esell- 
schaH. Frankfurt am Mala receives the Subscription Price and ihe 
Warrant by Thursday. December 15. 1994 at the latest For legal 


reasons, notices to exercise the Subscription Right which are not 
received by Deutsche Bank AktlengeseHschaft before expiration 
or the deadline cannot be accepted. 

Receiving Agents are 

in the Federal Republic of Germany the following banks and their 
branches: 

Deutsche Bank Aktiengesellschaft 
Commerzbank Aktiengesellschaft 
Dresdner Bank Aktiengesellschaft 
Merck, Fi nek & Co. 

outside the Federal Republic of Germany the head offices of Ihe 
following banks: 

ABN AMRO Bank N.V. 

Schweizerische Bankgesefischaft/ Union Bank of Switzerland 
Banque NationaJe de Paris 
J. Henry Schroder Wagg & Co. Ltd. 

SchweLzariscfier Bankverein/Swrss Bank Corporation 
Sod6«G Generate 
Generate Bank 

In line with standard practice on the stock exchanges the Warrants 
will be traded and officially listed on the German stock exchanges 
lor the last time on December B. 1994. 

The DM-bonds (WKN 474 539) from the abovemen toned issue, 
mature on December 15. 1994 and will be redeemed at par. 

UNDE AG 

Wiesbaden, November 1994 The Board of Managing Directors 


Appear in the Financial Tunes 
on Tuesdays, Fridays and Saturdays. 

For further information or to advertise in this 
section please contact 
Karl Loynton on +44 71 873 4780 
or 

Melanie Mites on +44 71 873 3306 


CONTRACTS & TENDERS 


C PETROBRAS 

KIMUfiBMUMU 

international competitive bidding notice 

BIDDING NOTICE N° 874-81-0019/94 

Petrdleo Brasllfllro S.A. - PETROBRAS has racahred a loan in various 
currarictea equivalent to USS 260 million Horn the WORLD BANK and 
Intends to apply a portion ol the proceeds ot this loan lo the purchase 
of material and equipment lor tfio erection of one Hidrotrealment 
Process Unit at Presidents Bernardos Refinery, in Cubalflo - SP - 
Brazil. 

This bidding will be made under the rules of ihe WORLD BANK and 
its purpose Is the purchase ol two {21 Air Blowers designed according 
lo API-fitB-STD with the following main characteristics; 

• Design flow: 1.629 Kg/s: 

- Normal flow: 1.207 Kg/s: 

• Minimum flow: 0.604 Kg/s; 

- Fluid: air; 

- Suction pressure: atmospherical: 

- Discharge pressure: 1.5 Kg/cm2 a ( 1 st phase); 

f .8 Kg/cm2 a (2nd phase). 

Bids wlU be received until three (3) p.m. ol January 24lh. 1995. 
Interested BIDDERS, from eligible countries, members of the WORLD 
BANK and Taiwan. China who have designed and fabricated ar least 
one ( 1 ) equipment, with the characteristics similar to those described 
above, may obtain this bidding through the presenlatlon ol a bank 
deposit slip In the non-retundable amount ol USS 300 (three hundred 
American dollars) to be made at Banco do Brasil S.A. Agenda 
PETROBRAS - Rio (code 3180-1) current account n» 377.100-8 in Ihe 
name ol PETROBRAS/ADM. CENTRAL, or contact ua at no expanse 
at the following address: 

PETR6LEO BRASILE1RO S.A. - PETROBRAS 
SERVICpO DE MATERIAL - SERMAT 
Av. RepOblica do Chile n* 65. 6* andar - sala n* 662 
CEP: 20035-9Q0 - RIo de Janeiro • RJ - BRASIL 
Phone: (021) 534-1731 or 534-1745 
Fax: (021) 534-3837 or 534-3B38 

Bel.: EDITAL N» 874-81-0010/94 

Alt.: Coordenador da Comlssdo de Licllacao 

BUSINESS TRAVEL 


Bsan 0}£3QC/oas rasa Ca^nttraptafar ^■QQCiQSC/flssEasa 

TOKYO Fr Cl 899 any a«l fafete TOKYO FrU399 

LOS ANGELES £1899 woAfcrfda - Pteott Cel LOS ANGELES B2449 
SYDNEY S1M9 abtaimi* iata £22 

TORONTO 618*9 TORONTO 0249 

NEW YORK £999 NEW YORK C1789 

mntAt ciam V. miBAi nu« 


DIVIDEND & INTEREST PAYMENTS 


SYDNEY 
TORONTO 
NEW YORK 
DUBAI 



FINANCIALT1MES 

(UI 04 6 >WAUW*VaAR 




The Times v 

proposes^$&Lish its 

Christmas Bo^fc^Review 1994 

within the Weekend FT 
on Saturday3rdJ)cceraber. 

It will contain rllfew^'of some of the 
best books of the^dr &cluding fiction, 
biographies, and leisure. 

For more details OBt^^erve your space 
' in this feajB^laiease call 


Robert Hunt 
071873 4418' « 
Fax: of 


Melanie Miles 
071 873 3349 
3064 


■ TODAY 

Akzo Nobel FL1.50 
Do. Brg. FL1.50 
Aon $0.32 
Arcolectric 0.6075p 
Do. A N/Vtg. 0.6075p 
Argos 2.65p 

Coca-Cola Am. 7%% Bd. ‘96 
$381.25 

Dolphin Packaging 1.7p 
EW Fact 1 .94p 

| For. & Co). Pac. Irtv. Tst 3% 

| Cv. Bd. 2000 Y30000.0 
i Helical Bar 2.75p 
Housing Fin. 8H% Db. ^ 
£4.3125 
JIB Grp. 2.5p 
Kwik-Fit 1.7p 
Linton Park 5p 
MAI 5.8p 

Mitsubishi Rn. 7%% Sb. Nts. 
*07 $387500.0 
Pacific Dunlop AS0.115 
Standard Chart Und. Prim. 
Cap. Nis. (Ser.2) $284.17 
Taisei 4.05% Nts. ‘97 
Y405000.0 

Do. 4.8% Nts. '98 Y480000.0 
Tor Inv. Tst. 4p 
Do. Inc. lOp 
Whatman 3.6p 

■ TOMORROW 

Abbott Labs $0.19 
Arjo Wiggins Appleton 2.65p 
Australian Agricultural A$0.10 
Barclays 16% Un. Cap. Ln. 02/ 

07 £8.0 

8 BA 1.5p 

Birmingham DisL Council 
11Va% Rd. ‘12 £5.75 
B rammer 4.5p 

Bumdene 15% Un. Ln. 07/12 
£7.5 

Chase Manhattan $0.40 
Clinton Cards 1.6p 
Colgate- Palmolive $0.41 


UK COMPANIES 


■ TOO AY 

COMPANY MEETINGS: 

Ex-Lands, Harcovt House, 19, Cavendfeh 
Squae. W.. 1VOO 

Prestwick Hkigrc, Sladon HoteL Ayr, 

12.00 

BOARD MEETINGS: 
interims: 

RtT Capital Partner* 

Mlcbley 

Smith (Janes) Estates 
Wordto Storeys 

■ TOMORROW 
COMPANY MEETINGS' 

Frogmora E s t a tes, CTrfton-Ford Hotel, 47, 
Wei beck Street, W.. 1 1.45 
Intereurape Technology. The Savoy 
HoteL The Strand. W„ 1030 

BOARD MEETINGS 
Finals: 

BOC 

British Empire Securities 
Dickie (J) 

Ffewbury Growth Tst 

S e ct s W is ed E n do w m ent Contracts 

Interims: 

Casket 
Cedardata 
European Colour 
Great Portland Estates 


Computer People Ip 
Conversion 9%% ‘06 £4.875 
Conversion 10% *96 £5.0 
Euro-Vip Sec. Var Rate Nts. 
*30 $32808.33 

Excheq13%% Ln. ‘96 £6.625 
Fairey 225p 
Fiscal Props. 0.624p 
For. & Col. Smaller Co’s 6% 
Pf. £2.10 

Forth Ports 3%% Fd. Debt 
£1.875 

GESB 8.35% Gtd. Bd. *18 
£41.75 

Hambros Inv. Tst 5% Cm. Pf. 
1.75p 

Inter-Am. Dev. Bank 994% Ln. 
*15 £4.875 

Marsh & McLennan $0,725 
Parity 0.75p 
SIG 2p 

Scottish Am. Inv. 4% Irrd. Db. 

£2.0 

Treasury 1244% Ln. *95 £6^375 

■ WEDNESDAY 
NOVEMBER 16 

Britannia BJdg. Scty. FRN *S6 

£146.35 

Britton Ip 

Camellia 14p 

Cattles 2.1 5p 

China & Eastern Inv. $0.07 

CSC Inv. Tst. 1.5p 

Nat West Bank Var. Rate Cap. 

Nts. *08 Si 42.79 

Quicks 2.25 p 

Rugby Estates 0.89p 

Skopbank Ser.B Und. Var. 

Rate Nts. $145.35 
Sumitomo Bank Gtd. FRN 
2000 $132.57 
Tweefontein R4-93 

■ THURSDAY 
NOVEMBER 17 
Asda Property 0.75p 


Hambros 
John Lusty 
MarahaBs 
Powergen 
Sims Food 

8L James Place Capita) 

Symonds Eng. 

■ WBJNESOAY 
NOVEMBER 18 
COMPANY MEETINGS: 

Domestic & General Grp* Watermen & 
Lightermens Had. 18. SL Mary-at-HB. 
EC. 11.30 

EFM Dragon Tat, Oonddson House, 97. 
Hay ma rttet tenses, Edribugh, 12.00 
Everest Foods. GokMiom Hotel. 
Wolverhampton, 1CL30 
Towiy Low. Bayts House, Stoke Pages 
tana, Stough. 12.00 

BOARD MEETINGS: 

Finals: 

Capital Rstflo 
Lynx Hldgs. 

VTR 

Interims: 

Adam & Harvey 
Channel Mdga. 

Christie Grp. 

Eases & Suffolk Water 
Fulcrum Inv. ToL 
UK Land 


Citicorp $0.15 ' 

Commercial Union 10.25p 
Drive Sec. Class A FRN '96 . 
£151.55 

Do. Mezzanine FRN 1996 
£171.71 

Bed de France 11%% Gtd. 

Ser. Ln. 09/12 £293.75 

Ex-Lands 0.42p - 

Expamet 1.35p 

Gent(SR)1.35p 

HSBC Sb. Cllrd. FRN ‘08; 

$25.56 

Kingfisher 4.4p 
Molyneux Estates 1.25p 
MR Data Mngmt 3.46p 
Nat & Prov.Btdg. Scty. FRN 
1939 £143.36 

Nat West Bank Jnr Gtd. FRN 
$143.75 

Royal Bk Scotland FRN 2005 
£71.68 

Towry Law 3.1p 
Toyobo FRN Feb. 1998 
Y66125.0 

Treasury 9% Ln. 1994 £4.50 
Waterford Foods IR1.25p 

■ FRIDAY 
NOVEMBER 18 
Ash & Lacy 2-5p 
Bank Scotland Und. FRN 
$274.72 

Baring Emerging Europe Tst. 

$0,002 

Barratt Dev. 4p 
Beazer Homes 1.8p 
Bluebird Toys 2p 
Boot (Henry) 1.85p 
Brieriey Invs. NZ$0.05 
Britannia Bldg. Scty. FRN ‘95 
£142.73 

Bum Stewart 3.3p 
Caradon 2.9p 

Chase Manhattan FRN 2000 
$129.38 

Dagenham Motors 2p 


■ THURSDAY 
NOVBUBB117 
COMPANY MEETINGS: 

Barratt Devstopmenta, The Planters' . 

hbti, 1 London WU, E.C., 2230 

Luces bids., Mattnpo ta HoteL NEC, 

Btetengham, 12JI0 

Rsbia, The Aeesmbly Roams, Derby. 

12M 

Regent bins, Zefctea, 74 Chestotte Street. 
W. 4.00 

Treftord Park Estates, United Trading 
Estate, MM icheater, 12J30 

BOARD MEETINGS; 

Hnate: 

Cmn MBtog 
Clyde Blowers 
Wig mors Property bw. 
tntsrt ns. 

ACT 

Dr o ck h am p t on 
Grappl i n TV 
Hardy Ob & Gas 
Lacker (Th mnao ) 

National Power 

Per sonal Assets T»L 

Portsmouth A SiBNlerfand Newspapers 

Regdai P ro pertie s 

000 (kp. 


' ...L ... 


Frogman Estates l3J2p . ; 
HCG Uoyds.lnv.Tst Ip 
HSBC HKS0.95:’. S'i \ 
Do. {Ord 75p) 8p 
Hasbro $0.07 . 

Intereurape Tedi. 5 .Bp 
Jupiter Tyndall 6p 
Lloyds Bank Ser.B Var. Rate 
Nts. *98 £149.34 v/-- - r 
Uoyd Thompson 5.4p 
Mayflower Carp. 0.5p ; . 
Merchants 1st 2.85p • 
Midland Bank Sb. FRN-2001 • 
£71.36 ;• ’ 

Nat . West Bank Und. Var. Rate 
Nts. £162.20 

Paramount O^p ; x - 
Personal Assete Tst iOQp 

PizzaExpress ip 
Regent Inns 3.65p 
Rugby T.5p 
Sharpe & Fisher 1.7p ‘ 

Thorpe (FW) 2.2p 
Treasury 10% 2004 CS X) 
Vardon 0.375p 
Wefts Fargo Rtg. RateSb. 
Cap. Nts. ‘SS $130.97 
Wobdchsster Invs. 1R2.39p 

■ SATURDAY 
NOVEMBB1 19 
CaterpJHar $0.15 
Exchequer 9% 2002 £4.50 
Treasury 10 »% 1999 £5^5 

■ SUNDAY * 

NOVEMBER 20 . 

Exchequer 12% 1998 £6.0 
Fintrust Deb. 914% Sev. Db. 
■23 £4.625 . ' * . - 

Portugal (Rep of) 9% Ln. 2016 
£225.0 

Treasury 216% I.L 2003 
£2^616 

Treasury 2 %% LL 2009 
£2.2616 


(N’O 


Si» A 


itn.Tii — ■ 

wimorwa 
York Watarworite 

■ FRIDAY 
NOVEMBER IB 
COMPANY MEETINGS: 

Glaxo. Groawnor House, Park Lana, W., 
10.30 

Northern bubrntriel bn p i nve m e ri t Tst, 
Washington Moat HoteL Washington, 
12.00 

Rentahow, Gabies Inn. Eateetd, Gtoucv 

12.00 

BOARD MEERNGS: 

FHiois: 

Perpetual 

IMgroup 

Interims: 

Back Arrow 
BrsdkenbrMga 
Chester Waterworks 

Company meetings an annual genera/ 
moeOngs unless otharwba sutod. 

Please note: Reports and accounts ora 
not normally aealJbte unM approxim a tely 
ebc weaka after (be board meeting to 
approve ttie prebirdnary results. 



NOVEMBER 17 
Kenya 

CBI conference plus workshops, io 
association with Standard Chartered 
Bank, considers current developments, 
opportunities and future prospects for 
investors and exporters. Keynote 
wUreca by President Daniel T arap Mai 
and speakers from the high powered 
delegation of Ministers and senior 
ortZcuils. 

COotad: Nicola Martin, 

CBI Conferences 

Tel: 071 379 7400 

24 hr fox-ra-demand: 071 240 1248 

LONDON 

NOVEMBER 19-20 
The National Classic 
Motor Show 

The 'Friendly' Classic Car Show, 
where the car clubs take centra stage. 
Massive Indoor AuDojumblc, Car Club 
Displays, Rally Mini Cooper S rebuild 
and a Special Stage or the Millers Oils 
RAC International Historic Rally (2Ulh 
only). Roger Clark, Britain's most 
famous rally driver, will officially 
open the show. 

Enquiries: Roger West - 
Centre Exhibitions 
TcL- 0121 767 2683 

NEC, BIRMINGHAM 

NOVEMBER 21 &22 

Third Central Banking 
Conference 

Features leading speakers from the 
central honks of China. India, France, 
Hungary, Finland, Austria. Poland. 
Venezuela and The Bank uf England. 
EMI and IMF. Sponsois The World Gold 
Council, Barclays Precious Metals and 
Clifford Gance. 

Details: City forum Lid 

Tel: 0225 466744 Pax: 0225 4429U3 

LONDON 

NOVEMBER 21-22 
Business Process 
Re-engineering (BPR) 

Continuing series of seminars for 
m ana ge rs charged with designing and 
implementing DPR initiatives. Presented 
by leading l/S practitioner and BPR 
author. Proven ' how-to-do -i l' 
implementation guide illustrated with 
case sudics and workshops. Catnse bonk 
also available. Over SO organisations In 
die private & public sectors lave already 
attended. 

Contact: Richard Parris, Vertical 

Systems Intercede Ltd 

Tel: +44-455-250256 (24 hours) 

UNIVERSITY OF WARWICK 

NOVEMBER 22-23 
Re-ongineuring for Growth and 
Transformation 

Many ic-cnginccring casaritica tend) front 
narrow cost reduction objectives. This 
Interactive workshop is far executives and 
change leaders who want lo go beyond 
‘Corporate Anorexia' . adopt a holistic 
approach and cream competitive capabilities 
that will ensure fature growth. Prowled by a 
leading International authority on re- 
cqgmccring and ironsfonzution. 

Contact: The Centre for Business 
Transformation 

Tet +44 id) 171-4 J5-357M24HIJ 
Rk: +44 (0)171-794-3568 

LONDON 

NOVEMBER 22/23 

Introduction to De riva tives In 

Treasury risk management 

Training course covering treasury 
derivative markets. Currency 
Options, SAFEs, FRAs. Futures, 
Interest rate swaps and related 
products. For Corporate Treasurers, 
bank dealers and marketing 
executives, financial controllers, 
systems and support personnel. £480 
+ VAT. 

Lywood David Iitlcmalioful Lid. 

Tel: 0950 S6SKZ0 
Fax: 0959 S6S321 

LONDON 


NOVEMBER 23 
New Regulations on 
Transport of Dangerous 
Goods 

CBI Conference includes 
presentations and case studies on 
how companies ore preparing to 
meet the requirements of new UK 
legislation in response to the 
European Directive and tbe ways 
that the regulations will be 
con trailed and enforced. 

Contact Sandra Aldred, CBI 
Conferences Tel 071 379 7400 
24 hr Pax-ofl-demand 071 240 1248 
LONDON 

NOVEMBER 24 

Israel Trade & Investment In 

an Emerging Market 

International conference In 
association with Israeli Embassy. 
KEYNOTE SPEAKER YOSSl 
BEfUN. Topics cover the Economy. 
Investment, Privatisation 

Opportunities, Major Capital Projects 
and Case Studies. 

INTER FORUM 
Tel: +44 (0) 71 386 9322 
Hue -+44 10)7138(8914 


LONDON 


NOVEMBER 24/25 
Differentiating Customer 
Proposition 

CBI/Dcvclin & Partners co n f eren ce, chaired 
by John Humphtys, shorn bow to transfer 
Key business processes to deliver cost 
efncienctes and market difEeretuntion. 
(Optional workshop on second day). 

Coated: UcKnda Kogenm, CBI Conferences 
Tet 071 3797400 Fas: 071 497 3646 
folia Robins, Develin A Partners 
Tei07l 9179J8S 

LONDON 

NOVEMBER 24/25 
FT Manchester Fostgaduate Fair 

The fair will provide students with 
information on postgraduate courses at over 
30 of the country's leading colleges and 
universities. Attendees will be welcome 
between 12 noon and 7 pm on Thursday, 
November 24 and between 10 am and $ pm 
on Friday, November 25 at (he Academy, 
Manchester University, CHford Road. 

MANCHESTER 

NOVEMBER 2S 

The 1994 CBI Lead Body 

Conference 

This years conference addresses the 

key challenges now facing the NVQ 

network. Representatives of NCVQ 

and Government win identify area* of 

current policy development and the 

issue of the new Occupational 

Standards Councils will be examined. 

Contact Sandra Aldred. CBI 

Conferences 

Tel: 071 379 7400 

24Ur Fax -on -demand U7I 240 1248 

LONDON 

NOVEMBER 28-29 
Global Emerging Markets 
Investment Management 

Major International conference on 
global emerging debt pod equity 
markets k»kllflg id CIS, Eastern Europe, 
Africa, the Mediterranean Rim; Asian 
and Indian Subcontinent. Latin America 
aadtha QuribcaiL Programme designed 
fur international portfolio Investors and 
asset allocators and emerging markets 
specialists. 

Contact: Alison Elgar, 

Dow JcrnaTd attic Lid . 

Tel: 071 S32 9532 
Fax: 071 353 2791 

LONDON 


NOVEMBER 29-30 
Managing Corporate 
Transformation: 

Tbe UK's premier event on planning, 
implementing and sustaining organisational 
and cultural change. This two-day 
conference includes frank discussion of 
why so many inilisirvea foil and explores 
proven methods for achieving critical buy- 
in and support for new organisation 
structures and working practices. 

Contact; Business Intelligence 
Tet 081-543 6S6S Fox: 081-544 9020 

LONDON 

NOVEMBER 29-30 
Business FYocoss 
Re-engineering: Myth and ReaBty 

A highly practical two day workshop for 
change agents who want to go beyond the 
hype and theory and gain hands-on 
experience and a thorough understanding 
nf a range of proven re-engineering 
methods, tools and techniques. The 
workshop will be led by two of Europe's 
leading re-engineering authorities. 

Contact: Unix 

Tet +44 (0)171-332-0210 (241 IrJ 
Fax: +44 (0)181-940-7424 

LONDON 

NOVEMBER 30 

Pakistan Today - 

Prospects for British Business 

CBI conference includes keynote addresses 
by Prime Minister Benazir Bbolto and 
Michael Kcseltcnc, presentations by senior 
Pakistan Government officials and UK 
investors and exporters, together with 
sectorial workshops and networking 
meetings. 

Contact Nicola Martin, CBI Conferences 
Tel 071 379 7400 

24 hr Fax -on-demand 07] 240 1248 

LONDON 

DECEMBER 1 

Europe and the Arab WcrW - 
‘Breaking The Banters -New 
PoGtical & Buoness Opportunities 

A one-day conference supported by the 
League of Arab States and CAAQU 
involving major European and Arab 
figures. Conference includes a European 
grants workshop 

Full derails from MEC Conferences 
Tet 071 U34 2380 FsjcOTI 9U2X1 
LONDON 

DECEMBER 1 

Ministry of Defence Seminar - 
Quality Through Competition. 

QEII Conference Centre. London. 
Outlining tbe strategy foe the competing 
for quality programme and tools for its 
implementation including Ihe Private 
Finance Initiative, Innovation and 
Partnership. Enquiries Sarah Uofejohns, 
Global Conferences on: 

071 39. 3 4953. 

LONDON 

DECEMBER 2 

Deriva tiv es - The New Frontier 
of Tax Planning 

With the Increasing number of new 
products and strategies coming onto the 
market, tins conference will help yon decade 
whether your company should be using 
derivatives and if so, bow you can evaluate 
(be worth of the different ptottecs on offer. 
Lean bow derivatives ran be used » pvt of 
your corporate strategy » nummise rax. 
Contact: Vicki Goffin, IBC Legal Statics 
and Services Limited 
Tel: 071 6374383 Fu:07l 6313214 

LONDON 


DECEMBER 2 

Currency Risk Management 
Workshop 

Understand and Identify exposures, and 
learn the techniques of currency risk 
management. Spot and Forward FX, 
Standard and 'Exotic' Currency Options. 
Zero Premium Strategics. Currency Swaps. 
£275 1 DAY 

Conrad: Faiiplacc Banking A Financial 
Training Tel: 071 329 0595 

LONDON 

DECEMBER 5 
European Union and the 
Business Researcher 

Framing how tbe creation of tbe single 
market tee affected the information dtarlmod 
by companies and oarbtica] offices in the 
Union, and the role of the commission in 
encouraging infannaiion flows. 

Gnua Yasmin Ganes 
Tel:07l 262 5050 cu. 3229. 

LONDON BUSINESS SCHOOL 

DECEMBER 5 
Practical Tax Treaties 
Key topics inctode: Strategic tax pfenning 
through double tax treaties io Western 
Europe, North America and tbe developing 
countries of Asia. Africa and Latin 
America; tbe development and application 
of double tax treaties in Russia and Eastern 
Europe; the new US/Neiherfemls double 
lax treaty and recent developments aad 
interpretation* in UK double tis 
agreements. 

Contact: Kale Roberts, IBC Legal Studies 

and Sendees Limited 

Tet 071 6374383 Fax: 071 631 3214 

LONDON 

DECEMBER 5-6 
Marketing To and Managing 
Major Accounts 

One of Frost A Sullivan's most popular 
Sales A Marketing seminars, focusing oq 
how to successfully build and implement a 
formal Major Accounts programme lo 
wire, maintain and increase business with 
your larges customers and prospects. Also 
taking place in Fraokfait, Germany ua 
December 8-V. 

Contact: Helen dc Saxe. Frost A Sullivan 
Tet (171 730 3438 Fax: 071 730 3343 

LONDON & FRANKFURT 

DECEMBER 5-6 
Treasury Sales Workshop 

The ■ole uf Treasury Products is now a key 
area fur many banks and financial 
institutions, and can help build profitable 
client relationships. Topics cuvcicd 
include: Planning and Developing Sales 
Initiative. Instruments Available lo 
Manage Risk. Corporate Hedging 
Technique*. Cn*s Selling. £400 - 2 days. 
Contact: Fairplaoc Banking & Financial 
Training 

TeL 071 329 0595 

LONDON 

DECEMBERS 

Competition in the Gas Market 

A one day conference. Speakers include 
Tun Eggar MP, Minister for Industry and 
Energy: Clare Spottiswoodc, Director 
General of 0FGA5 and leading industry 
figures from amongst others British Gas 
ondTransco. 

Contact Qly & Fbmncbl Conference; 

Tel: 027ft 856966 Fax: 027b 856566 

— LONDON 


DECEMBERS & 7 
Lobbying The European Union 

This conference Is addressed to those who 
know something of Brussels and need to 
stay up to-date with the changes that arc 
currently raking place. 

Further details from International 
Professional Conferences Ltd 
Tel: 061 445 8623 

LONDON 

DECEMBER 7 

Advanced Software Solutions 
In Manufacturing and 
Engineering 

Seminar for bosiacss and technical 
managers showing use of practical 
applications of logic programming 
software io manufacturing and 
engineering, including problems of 
intelligent scheduling. Leading 
international companies present slatc-of- 
Ihe-arl systems. Includes panel iTtsctts&tou 

■nd vendor displays. 

Contact Al Ruth, tel: 0253 358081 

LONDON 

DECEMBER 7 

Essential Tax Techniques for 
Property Development & kiwesknent 

This conference win focus on: recurring and 
troublesome tax pitfalls; key lax facts for 
property joint ventures: VAT in the eunem 
new dimale: wj« and leaseback back in 
fashion; the new regime for stamp duty; 
maximising capital allowances and new 
ideas for investing. There will be a special 
comment from Michael Quinlan. Inland 
Revenue Stamp Office 
Contact: Vicki Goffin, IBC Ixgjl Studies 
and Services Untried 
Tel: 971037 4383 Fax: 07 1 63 1 3214 

LONDON 

DECEMBER 7 

How to win competitive 

proposals 

Competition is iolconlrying. The preasure 
to perform to increasingly high standards 
begins with the proposals process. This one 
day conference will ask senior buying 
specialists to outline rbeir proposals 
process the criteria used for the sc led ton 
of suppliers and case study examples of 
recent high value proposals selection 
processes. 

I niii lute of Directors 
U?1 730 0022 

LONDON 

December"™ 

Succeeding with Teams: 

tmkal anregjcs for dodgning. onptonaxing 
and driving the lea IB-based urpmtsaiion. An 

bncmnOcKul iwtHbj conference ^reatkally 

designed to help senior executives understand 
die fmdameml tares involved in desi gn ing anj 
impi CTKi d in gatcam^mringBteatina 
Contact: Business intelligence 
Tel: 081-543 6565 Fax; rtBI-544 9trj) 

LONDON 

DECEMBER 8 ” 

The UK Economy 

Prospects up to and beyond (he nest 
General Rlcaion. 

This Henley Centre Conference is UU r 

annual look at (he UK fcnnuniy and its 

prospects for tbe medium term. , 

Cost £350 + VAT 

Contact: Amu Harmon at 

The Hen ley Centre Tel: 071 353 99M 

LONDON 


DECEMBER 8 
Developing IT and 
i Communications 

A BA Speedwing workshop to identify (be 
information technofogy solutions you need 
linking them lo business goals. Ensure 
hardware, software and networking march 
your needs. Rad oat whar Superhighways 
are - whether they're relevant. 

Contact: Nick Hamilton. West London 
TEC on 081-814-3240; lax: 081-570-9969 
LONDON 

DECEMBER 12 
Capital Accounting - 
Implementing CIPFA 

The new CIPFA Capital Accounting 
system is the most foods mental «*nng- in 
local authority practice in the lost 100 
years. Course explains bow tbe new system 
works and tbe practicalities of 
iniptemcntaiioa. 

Derails: Investment Education pk 
Tel: 061 22S 2400 Fax; Ubl 228 2440 

LONDON 

DECEMBER 12 

Re- Appraising Corporate Share 
Schemes 

Thfa conference will examine in detail: the 
importance of performance targets; the 
highly topical area of new issue or existing 
shares; how to renew shares effictentfy and 
effectively; how Proshxre am help; how in 
choose between restricted shares and 
qptore. si*! complying with ynur disclosure 
ubttgaTiofK. 

Contact Vicki Goffin, IBC Legal Studies 

and Services Limited 

Tel: U7 1637 4383 Fax: 071 631 3214 

LONDON 

DECEMBER 13 

Rapid Iterative Development of 
Business Applications 

Client/server Application Generation. A 
complimentary half day seminar presumed 
by Syhusc and TupSystems. Guest speaker 
Henk Lkikker Managing Editor of Ovum 
Ltd. 

To register please tail The Marketing 
Department on 
Tel: OS 1 332 2223 

LOND ON 

DECEMBER 13 " 

Energy Seminar - Transition or 
Maturity? A Review of Current 
Policy and Development 

This CRI seminar examines recent 
regulatory reviews, competition 
development, consumer interests and 
European energy policy. Speakers from 
OFGAS. SWEB. NERA. British Oas. 
Elect rieity Foot, Gas Consumers Council, 

I LA. 

V-»en LN9 v VAT 

Contact Leigh Sykes, CRI 

Tel: U7I 895 8823 Fox: 071 895 8825 

LONDON 

DECEMBER 14 

Review of Local Government 

Borrowing and Investment 

A comprehensive review of Local 
Oovernmcm borrowing and invesinicnt 
including legislation, CIPFA Treasury 
Management requirements, investment via 
■ lousing Associations, etc. Includes cases 
and strategy. Essential for Local 
Government Treasuras, Bankets, Housing 
Association finance executives, pic. 

Dsfaib: In vest men i Education pic 
rd: 061 228 2400 Fax: 06 L 2282*40 

LONDON 


DECEMBER 15 
Business Opportunities In 
Scotland 

Sponsored by Edtntxugb District Council, 
TSB, Arthur Andersen & McGrigor 
Donald and features Lord Thomson, Sir 
Ian Wood, Tom Farmer, John Lord. 
Discusses prospects for economy, 
Investment, energy. agriculture, 
manufacturing aad service. 

Details: City forum Ltd 

Tel: 0225 466744 Fax: 0225 442903 

LONDON 

JANUARY 18 & 17 

Risk Management Systems for 

Banks 

This practical two day conference examines 
bow banks ran evaluate build and implement 
a sound integrated risk management system. 
Learn how to successfully implement in- 
house and brought systems and link disparate 
structures from both a managerial and IT 
pe^eetivc. Speakers from right major banks 
and four systems leaders. 

Contact: Sophie Berger. AIC Conferences 
Tet 071 242 1548 

LE MER1DIEN, LONDON 

JANUARY 24 & 25 
Re-engineering the I.T. 

Function: 

Realigning LT. culture, capabilities and 
n Kills lo deliver radical business 
performance Improvement. 

An International two-day conference of 
leading experts and practitioners which 
explores the inuuducaHM) of new strategics, 
development of new organisations and 
management structures to enable LT. to play 
a key rule in transforming the business. 
Contact: Business Iflldligcmv 
Tet 0181 543 6565 Fax: 0181 5449020 
LONDON 

JANUARY 26 1995 
Strategy Update 

In today's increasingly complex and hostile 
markets il is no longer sufficient to rely on 
past experience. Managers must think 
strategically when developing and 
implementing plans which will impact 
their company's competitive piroli.irt Yet 
most managers devote le^s than 3 r i ol iheir 
lime to strategy development. This seminar 
aims to redress the balance. 

Contact: Elaine Farncki at CranFlelU 
School of Management 
Tel: 11234 751122 Fax: 0234 7500711 
C RANH ELD 

JANUARY 31 
Strategic Reward Policies 
A critical factor for business 
success 

This practical programme for senior 
executives will show how linking reward 
policies to strategic objectives can have a 
measurable impact on the successful 
implcmciualnin of corporate strategy. Knit 
by Cra afield School uf Management and 
The Wyatt Company. 

Contact Jane Reed Tel: 0234 75 1 1 22 
Hu Institute of Directors. 

LONDON 


INTERNATIONAL 


EXHIBITION 


DECEMBER 1-4 
EXPOPaUsbm: Ttade R* 

A unique opportnairy lor baaiqca contacts 
and to soc the extensive array uf Pakistan'-. 
products: textiles, jewellery, ceramics. 
Sanita ryware, onyx, giftwjre. earpets, 
spf'rts goods, hand -crafted furniture die. 
Contact: Mr M Artur Tahir, 

PakxOnn High Oonnfomun 
Fax: 071 235 8731 
10.00 AM. to b.OU P.M. daily 
Admission free. 

BARBICAN, LONDON 


NOVEMBER 23 
Advanced Software Solutions 
In Transportation and 
Distribution 

Seminar for business and technical 
managers showing use of practical 
applications of logic programming 
software in Ihe transportation and 
distribution markets. Leading international 
companies present state-of-the-art systems- 
Includes panel discussion and vendor 
daplayv 

Contact: Philip Kay. tel: +33 I 6019 3738 
Al R»th. tel: *44 233 35HUKI 


TO ADVERTISE IN THIS SECTION PLEASE CALL NADINE HOWARTH ON 071-873 3503 


NOVEMBER 24 & 25 
Offshore Trust Administration/ 
Offshore Trusts A Trustees 

1PC have arranged two one-day 
conferences on related aspects of the 
offshore world, which compliment each 
other perfectly, but which can be attended 
separately if desired. 

Further details from International 
Professorial Conferences Ltd 
Tel: H6 1 445 S623 

JERSEY 

NOVEMBER28-29 
2 nd International Financial 
Sendees Conference for Latin 
America 

Topics include: impficaiioas of NAFTA 
for retail bunking in Mexico; building the 
new retail bank, service marketing, ircnds 
in Ihe cards murker. Separate workshops on 
Risk Management. Marketing. Cards. 
Merchandising the Branch. Speakers from 
MasterCard. Firm Chicago, Bank of 
Boston. Banamcx. 

Cuniact Catherine O'Reilly, un tel: f*353 
I) 671 3022 or fox : (+353 1)671 3594 
MEXICO CITY 

NOVEM8ER29-30 
The Teleshopping Explosion: 
Creating Asian, North American 
* European Partnerships 

»j'in A • l ® ; r nal *onal. in conjunction with 
MIF Aim. presents its first Aslan 
teleshopping «. (inference on electronic 
retailing. 

Con too: Vivien Wallace. Uppin Wallace 
Tel: 7l-ri.KI'W77 Fji: 71-630 VHU6 
HONG KONG 

DECEMBER 5-6 
Competitive Intelligence 

Seminar fur managers who want to learn 
how Competitive intelligence supports 
bitch ■•peraliiuul circa riencsn and strategic 
pot-ironing. Topics include aims and rale 
of intelligence in firms, collect ion 
methods. analytical techniques, 
Organisation, and counter-intelligence. 

I rmapai k-ctiirvn are former professional 
intelligence officers 
C< miner. Business Research Group 
Tel: U22 92!> 1 90 1 Fax: 1)22 7S8 ILS24 

GENEVA 

DECEMBER 6-9 
Refining, LNG & 
p etrochsmA8la9« (RLPA 94 ) 

The only >hnw in Asia to address the 
onwixurcatn oil and gas industry. R| J>A94 
returns with I Oil. exhibited and an 

" gr ? tbe theme 

iatnuhiEKd Intwvdtitms and Enhancements 
for SiMauulile fx-vufopment". liMco tu 30 
*tasu«h«l experts Am: ihei kiwwJcdK on 
techreJoBBal bmnvanreis to aditevc 
u4amaNe tfevetofmem. 

Lotah in - lei: +4-1 fill 171 .«6 m SI 
Fax: «U((l) I7| 413 S2I I 
Singapore - Td: +f*5 33s 4747 
Fax: *65 3>i ittf 1/339 <3507 

•SINGAPORE 


dji J* 1 . 


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FINANCIAL TIMES 


MONDAY NOVEMBER 14 1994 


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INGj&BANK 


FINANCIAL TIMES 


THIS WEEK 



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S ome curious and signifi- 
cant trends lurked In the 
latest crop or US quar- 
terly results. Profits, as might 
be expected at this stage tathe 
cycle, were op strongly, by 39 
per cent for a sample of larger 
companies, according to the 
Wafl Street Journal. Sales vol- 
ume was also up sharply. The 
odd fact was that many manu- 
*^ ct ^ ers said they were still 
shedding labour, odder still, 
quite a few were unable to 
raise their prices. 

An extreme but not isolated 
example was the chemicals 
giant DuPont, whose earnings 
nearly doubled in the quarter. 
In its polymers division, sales 
volume was up a remarkable 
15 per cent (and profits by 150 
per cent); prices, however, 
were I per cent lower. Job cuts 
were continuing across the 
group, a representative said. 
“Hopefully," he added, “we're 
getting near the end." 

Here is productivity and no 
mistake. If this is what the 
peak of the cycle looks like, 
God help the workers in the 
next downturn. However, the 
conventional business cycle 
may have little to do with it. 
What we have here is a real 
revolution based on informa- 
tion technology and new 
approaches to manufacturing 
Nor is it confined to produc- 
tivity of labour. The inability 
of manufacturers to raise their 
prices is slightly mysterious. 




but one important reason must 
be that they continue to find 
new ways to raise the produc- 
tivity of their plant. 

For years, pioneers like Gen- 
eral Electric have been using 
Japanese-style ingenuity to 
wring more output from exist- 
ing machinery. Today, even a 
car manufacturer like Ford 
talks almost casually of mov- 
ing its output towards 130 per 
cent of rated capacity. Since 
this increased flexibility is 
hard to capture in official data, 
it risks distorting monetary 
policy. If the Fed puts too 
much trust in its own figures 
on capacity utilisation, it could 
end up raising rates for the 
wrong reason. 

Other official data point the 
other way. Although monthly 
inflation figures are notori- 
ously unreliable. It is worth 
recalling that US factory gate 
prices (excluding food and oil) 
fell 0.5 per cent in October, 
with capital goods down 1 per 
cent. The price of cars fell 2.6 
per cent - and this at a time 
when General Motors was 
incurring strike action for 
excessive use of overtime. 

Also last week came figures 
showing an annualised rise in 
productivity of 2.7 per cent in 
the third quarter. This may be 
small beer to a star performer 
liifg the manufacturer Allied- 
Signal, which looks on course 
this year to hit its regular tar- 
get of 6 per cent (and which is 


Global Investor / Tony Jackson 

Work harder, or not at all 


The wages of productivity 

US truScea (annual % change) 

8 - - 


Compensation par hour 


4 


M a nufa c turin g 

output 


Soutca: Datsstraam 

still laying off workers, despite 
having just recorded a double 
digit sales increase for the first 
time in six years). But the fig- 
ure is still above the average 
for the previous 13 quarters. 

At ' the same time, unit 
labour costs are running only 
0.9 per cent up an last year. Mr 
Stephen Roach, economist at 
Morgan Stanley, calculates 
that over the past four cycles 
in the US the average rise at 


Globalisation 
is one of the 
buzzwords of 
the 1990s. But 
although it is 
bringing pro- 
found chang BH 
to national 
economies, the 
way companies conduct their 
business and the world of 
work, nobody seems to know 
how to measure it. 

What constitutes globalisa- 
tion Is fairly dear. The Paris- 
based Organisation for Eco- 
nomic Co-operation and Devel- 
opment (OECD) says it is a 
widening and deepening of 
companies' operations across 
borders to produce and sell 
goods and services in more 
markets. 

Globalisation’s most 
dynamic dement since the 
mid-1980s has been foreign 

investment, although it can 

^ also take the form of trade 

•. h ' and collaboration for purposes 

such as product development, 
a-j production and sourcing. 

However, the way these 
activities translate into 

-■ pounds and pence or dollars 

and cents is un c lea r , largely 
because of gaps in the 
statistics. 

Among the problems: 

• recorded flows fail to 
include direct investment 
financed through capital mar- 
kets in the host country or 
from other sources that do not 
pass through the country of 
the original investor; 

i • not all countries have 
- • adopted OECD guidelines set- 

ting 10 per cent ownership as 
i the Tninimnm for an invest- 
ment to be counted as foreign 
direct investment as opposed 
to portfolio investment; 

• less than transparent own- 
ership structures mean some 
companies which are foreign 
controlled may be categorised 
as domestic owned; 

• once past the flows, there 
are difficulties with data on 

\i ; - ^ stocks of foreign investment 
' ' ^ because these are usually 

based on the historical value 
a of an investment and not 
updated at market prices. 


Economics Notebook 

Confusion lies 
with statistics 


This list implies that the 
total value of foreign direct 
investment and hence the 
scale of globalisation has been 
underestimated. Current sta- 
tistical methods almost cer- 
tainly foil to reflect how glo- 
balisation is changing the 
nature of the world economy. 

Foreign affiliates are fre- 
quently. if not always, estab- 
lished to preserve or expand 
exports. They therefore boost 
the parent company's and 
country’s international com- 
petitiveness. 

For this reason, Ms DeAnne 
Julius, chief economist at Brit- 
ish Airways, has suggested 
that their activities should be 
taken into account with more 
traditional trade figures. 

The US is about the only 
country to have suitable sta- 
tistics with which to begin 
this exercise. But the accom- 
panying table, based on a US 
Commerce Department study, 
suggests that it is fraught 
with difficulty. 

The traditional balance of 
payments-based measure of 
US cross-border trade in goods 
and services showed a deficit 
of $28bn in 1991. Although this 
was smaller then many recent 
deficits, it was still redolent of 
relative economic decline. 

The picture changes signifi- 


cantly, -however, if sales of US 
afffKatog in their country of 
location are included. All 
alternative measures produce 
surpluses, suggesting that the 
US is a rather more potent 
contributor to world trade 
than statistics say. 

But the table also shows 
how the estimates vary 
greatly: net US surpluses 
range from *24bn to S164bn 
while the numbers for sales 
and purchases differ even 
more. Clearly, there is no neat 
statistical way of pinning 
down globalisation. 

The OECD has a small team 
under Mr Thomas Hatachron- 
oglou of its science, technol- 
ogy and industry directorate 
which is trying to make sense 
of such confusion. 

Its recent first study* of for- 
eign affiliates in 15 OECD 
countries focused on the effect 
of foreign investment on 
employment, productivity, 
research, technology and 
trade in host countries. 

Perhaps unsurprisingly, the 
team’s findings were over- 
whelmingly positive. The sur- 
vey found that overall the for- 
eign affiliates added to 
employment and paid higher 
wages than domestic compa- 
nies. Although research and 
development as a share of 


turnover and production 
tended to be lower than in 
home grown companies, it 
was growing. 

Moreover, foreign investors 
frequently introduced “best 
practices" in terms of indus- 
trial skills, management meth- 
ods and new technologies that 
spread rapidly through the 
host economy. 

Potentially more controver- 
sial is the impact of foreign 
investment on the country 
where the investment origi- 
nates. The table below sug- 
gests that the country of ori- 
gin may gain -in terms of the 
competitiveness of its compa- 
nies. However, this must be 
weighed against the likely 
impact on employment of 
locating production abroad 
and the political storms and 
protectionist pressures that 
such investments can 
unleash. 

The OECD has only three 
people working in this area 
and their next survey, which 
will probably be on the effect 
of globalisation on investing 
economies, could take two 
years to appear. 

Globalisation is therefore an 
area in which the OECD could 
usefully consider investing 
some resources of its own - if 
it can take its mind off the 
still unresolved issue of who 
should have the organisation's 
top job. 

*The performance of Foreign 
Affiliates m OECD Countries, 
OECD Publications. 2 rue 
AndrE-Pascal. 75775 Paris 
Cedex 16. 545. 


Peter Norman 


USilntematiofial economic performance, 1991 


WII. . 

Cram- 
, border tradq fa 
goods and services 

Alternative 
fachxfing net sales 

through affBates 

US National 
Academy 
of Sciences 

De Anne 
Julius 

USsafos to Tbrnkfoers 581 

632 

816 

2,523 

USpurctatts 

609 

608 

652 

2,499 

Bafcnce 

-28 

24 

164 

24 


• Source: OBCO, US Department oC Commerce 


ft-actuaries world indices 


Jatatiy compfled by The HmreU Times LKt, Goldman, Sachs 4 Co. and NatWest Secures Ud. In conjunction with the institute ot Actuaries and the Factfty of Actuaries 

RKnatUL MARKETS FRIDAY NOVEMBER 11 INK THURSDAY NOVEMBER 10 1994 DOLLAR INDEX 

Fkaeea m nsOTthecM US Kchfl FcxexJ Local Local V> Gmn US Pound Local Y« 

Dofar Since Stuffing Yen DM Ctereneychg tom ttv. Dollar Storing Yen DM Currency 52 week 52 week * 
of«ock txfex 31/12/83 Index index Index Index 31/12/93 Yield Index Index Index Index index High Low UW 


THURSDAY NOVEMBER 10 1994 DOLLAR INDEX — 

US Pound Local Year 

Dollar Staring Yen DM Currency 52 wee*. 52 week ago 


Mot 31/12/93 Index Index Index Index 31/12/93 Yield Index Index Index Index Index 


Low lappmor) 


Australia (B 8 ) I87-S8 

Austria fIB) 

Belgium (35) T«-*1 

BrazS G2S| ’“f." 


0.4 156.28 1(025 13309 14307 -9.4 385 

-33 167.58 111.43 14363 14322 -13.7 1.12 

36 15347 10434 134.10 130.93 -8.7 432 

- 172.18 11449 147.57 28337 - 0.72 


£,nadBtl6i'L 131.47 -34 121.86 8132 10344 12330 -0.7 384 

IILUI — ■■■ ■— „ 1 M nM nmm n a 1X7 


169.70 157 S3 105.17 135.41 149.65 18915 14936 153.66 

160.79 167.87 112.04 144.26 144.34 198 89 167.46 173.31 

138.01 156.00 104. T2 134.06 130.83 177.04 151.07 15123 

18330 174J55 11370 15025 288.59 - 

131.76 12334 81.65 105.13 129.56 145.31 120 54 1 34 79 


Denmark (33) 

Finland (24) 

fiance (Id) 

Germany (58) 

Hong Kong — 

Ireland (14) 

IUy(59) 

Japan (468) 


24332 0.7 23063 15335 197.66 202.03 -11.6 1.47 24554 22300 152.17 19333 200 43 275.79 230.27 23393 

19451 68.0 18039 119l94 154.60 189.89 26.8 0.74 19168 179B5 12003 154.55 19018 201.41 116.85 122.09 

17152 -26 158.08 106.77 13634 141.49 -133 007 17130 158.78 10537 136.44 141.49 18537 159.34 161.61 

143.65 2.4 133.18 8834 114.12 114.12 -83 1.62 1 43.44 133.19 8839 114.45 114.45 15040 128.37 130.61 


araOT -22 A 35230 234.16 301 £6 377.01 -2£3 3.17 381.19 35395 23023 304.16 37023 506.56 34129 390.05 

9 0416 102 18953 125.82 182.18 18295 -12 3.49 20553 190.84 127.37 164.00 184.82 216 60 172.05 177 SO 

„7Bt51 145 72.78 4039 8237 91-81 4 J 1.71 78.53 7232 48.67 62.66 9220 97.78 57.88 6236 

15855 201 14433 9630 124.12 9630 4.9 0.80 155l58 144.46 96.42 124.14 96.42 170.10 124 54 145 48 


15825 201 14433 9030 124.12 9630 4.9 0.80 155l58 144.46 90.42 124.14 96.42 170.10 124 54 145 48 

Z_-.308.03 -14.1 470 30 31011 40338 S003Q -183 1.68 SOBM 47022 31083 40406 49933 621.63 43071 48279 

mnysepn -133 1914.02 127235 164037 776408 -43 132 203609 189039 1261.81 1624.63 7656.84 2647.08 169028 1823.41 

_Z_21S-26 Ol '19932 13238 171.00 16834 -43 3.43 215.67 20038 13366 172.09 169.43 223.30 187.01 190.12 

wamaanBliw-.— — . M «iu iim no ud trio -m m m oo enan OA11 T7RO WJf ><9.41 


New Zealand (14) — 

Norway (23) "1°—" 

Singapore (44) 380.& 

South Africa (S9) 

Span QQ 14 *- 01 

Swhaaitand (47) — 1W-16 

Thailand (46) 


1SL2B ai '19932 13236 171.00 16834 -43 3.43 

.7536 113 7032 4636 6031 64.61 03 *A3 

9635 9.8 18246 1*1.3* 15637 178.48 -2.7 1.85 

89.48 0.0 301.01 2403 4 309.40 263.80 -S3 1.60 


216.67 20038 133.66 172.09 169.43 223.30 187.01 190.12 

76.19 70.76 4722 60.60 65.14 77.50 59.22 59.41 

196.18 182.16 12138 15634 178.99 211.74 165.52 175.08 

39433 36538 244.19 314.41 287.19 401.38 294.86 31321 


253 31138 20634 26630 30339 19.9 213 335.19 31134 207.72 257.45 299.72 342.00 20535 219 OS 

13 131.83 8732 11231 136.79 -93 436 14130 13139 B739 11290 13631 155.79 129.68 137 79 

20,3 219.04 14534 187.73 25338 43 137 23438 217.82 14537 187.18 25414 242 68 175 63 195.65 

33 15431 102.40 13139 13133 -105 134 16538 15334 10237 13220 132-14 176 56 146 04 146.40 

- 16060 108.78 18734 16734 - 1.99 173.12 16075 10739 13014 187.78 ' 

■9,7 4.13 201.40 187.01 12431 16070 187.01 214.96 191.11 18537 

05 2.69 18087 17030 11737 15130 189.87 196.04 17835 18850 

232 17736 184 95 11008 141.75 147.61 - - - 

05 3.10 172.85 16038 107.18 138.00 15132 17856 15479 15088 

3.4 1.42 22532 209.41 139.76 17935 20836 233.91 173.19 186.99 

13 1-14 18634 15125 10Z2B 131.69 10701 17836 134.79 154.47 

S3 139 18836 15024 10437 13436 124 62 175.14 143.88 15558 

33 238 18837 172.95 11043 14062 185.73 192.73 17537 185.17 

■7.7 2.49 15434 14333 95.48 122.91 130.82 158.12 135.94 13805 


UriSwMdomm 500.11 - 18049 12333 16097 18549 -9.7 4.13 

IS^IfiC-— 18935 -05 17024 J_1 1052 15018 169.05 - 05 2.B 9 


_ 17S XM . - 16431 10005 14036 14733 

17230 23 18017 10090 13737 16087 -05 

si 193 210.69 140 OS 18057 20074 3.4 

106.48 14.1 16339 101.99 13148 10080 13 

16845 06 16014 10332 13382 12425 -33 


America? (664) 

Europe (707) 

Nortfc (T18) i 227.31 

PNdfleBasm(7BS 1K.48 

Euro-Pad* [150? .1»4S 

North America (61ft 185.48 

EuiWKBlUKPO^ -15442 

PacHte EX. Japan (325) 2SOOS 

WWW Ex. US (1708) 17038 

WWW Be UK P01B) ira-17 

WWW Ex. Japan (175^ - — 187.89 


18048 -05 17132 11431 14734 18436 -03 238 18837 172.95 11543 14062 185.73 192.73 175.07 1 K> u 

15442 4.7 143.13 95.17 12237 13035 -7.7 2.49 15434 1433 3 95.48 122.91 130.82 158.12 135.94 138 05 

“*125633 -11.1 23040 167.18 20060 22540 -15.6 236 25042 23010 15831 20431 22050 29021 232.54 241.04 

“ 17038 03 . 16733 10631 13535 12833 -2.8 139 17020 15833 10547 135.80 128.38 17085 145.56 156.35 

173.17 5.7 10032 10073 137.87 14230 -12 2.11 17321 18083 10724 13021 14329 178.59 155.98 164.19 

”IlS7.89 •. 0.0 17337 11537 149l10 17073 -44 231 18B22 174.77 116.65 150.18 177.45 19520 176-34 178.7B 

17539 16313 10888 140.19 14722 180.80 15085 166 09 


ThoWwW tort" .-~.t7S.SS S.0 102.72 10018 13045 14074 -21 zjp i/axg ioam naxeg wi 8 7*7Jg ibo.i» 

. . - . r-^— n— l MM. QpMnwn. a Ca. and I M M 1 Secudam Lriaed. H87 _ ^ . 

Pec ai.19B7-115Jg7(U8t Weft 90791 ff»und 8 m 8 iW md WW (U>w9;l*«fc Dec 30 198B » 139JS (U8 S >Mb^ 11 XXS (Powri Srwinjl aM |L«^ 
OBt 31, 100*- «044 (U5 8 hdo& 1BA07 point Stwfintf end 1490* 


Total return In looal currency to 10/11/94 


Cash 

Week. 

Month 

Year 

us 

• a og 

0.43 
3.68 

..J9BS n j 

a 04 
0,19 
2.13 

fcrewa 

0.09 

042 

556 

Jsss&_ 

0.70 

054 

-0.08 

■ 

016 

070 

851 

m 

O10 

046 

5.41 

Bonds 3-5 year 






Week 

-0.04 

-0.02 

043 

0.70 

IDO 

057 

Month 

Y ear 

-0.76 

-2.49 

0.46 

-1.15 

081 

0.95 

054 

-088 

2.42 

2.47 

075 

018 

Bonds 7-10 year 






■VWh 

0.00 

-0^2 

150 

1.68 

1.57 

059 

Month 

Year 

-133 

-6.83 

0.50 

-2.87 

1.10 

-3.03 

055 

-558 

2.91 

■3.61 

1D8 

-253 

Equities 







Week 

-0-6 

-3.0 

1.4 

2.0 

2.0 

02 

Month 

1.6 

-3.7 

25 

2.9 

-0.6 

2.7 

Yaw 

3.5 

-0.8 

14 

-2.4 

24.7 

4.4 


Source: Cad) a Bonds - Lehman BnXhae. 

The FT -Actuaries Wortd msoes are Jointly owned by The 
Goldman Sacha a Ca. and NatWest Securitas UrnOad. 


Equneoc Naiwest Securities. 
Hnanca Times UmitM, 


this point in the cycle has been 
6.1 per cent. Since, as he 
observes, labour accounts for 
70 per cent of production costs, 
this leaves room for further 
rises in corporate profits. 

From a stock market view- 
point, the productivity revolu- 
tion might seem unambigu- 
ously good news. So it is, 
subject to two provisos, first 
the sodal divisions created by 
the revolution must be con- 


tainable. Second, even those 
workers who keep their jobs 
must agree to work increas- 
ingly Long hours for the same 
money or less (see chart). 

After all, one of the effects of 
the revolution from a stock 
market perspective is to make 
labour an expensive nuisance. 
The biggest industrial 
employer in the US is General 
Motors, with a workforce of 
711,000. Dividing that figure 


into its market capitalisation 
gives a stock market value per 
worker of some $63,000. As you 
drop down the list of top 
employers, the valuation rises: 
PepsiCo *72,000. Ford *101,000, 
IBM *115,000, General Electric 
*403.000. At the other extreme 
comes Microsoft, whose 15,000- 
odd employees carry a price 
tag of 82.5m apiece. 

Not everyone can become a 
software designer at Microsoft, 


while fewer and fewer blue col* 
lar workers can expect to find 
jobs in Detroit One of the most 
topical and contentions books 
in America at the moment is 
The Bell Curve, by the social 
sdentists Charles Murray and 
Richard Hermstein. They 
argue that America Is creating 
a “cognitive elite", to which 
only those of high intelligence 
are admitted; also, that intelli- 
gence is largely inherited and 
thus immutable. One does not 
have to accept the argument to 
take the point: one way or 
another, the technological rev- 
olution is social dynamite. 

Even for those who emerge 
on top, life may be getting 
tougher. There have been pro- 
ductivity increases in the ser- 
vice industries, but much of it 
has consisted of cutting out 
layers of bureaucracy. For the 
survivors, espedally those who 
work purely with their brains, 
the only way to increase out- 
put Is to work longer hours. 
According to Mr Roach of Mor- 
gan Stanley, the average work 
week in US factories is now 
longer than at any time since 
the second world war. Some- 
thing similar seems to be hap- 
pening to white collar workers. 

As he also observes, greater 
exertion is not the same as 
greater efficiency. So lengthen- 
ing hours do not represent true 
growth in productivity, even if 
it shows up as such in the offi- 
cial statistics. If it is not true 


productivity, nor is it true 
wealth. And If, in the long run, 
harder work foils to translate 
into a higher standard of liv- 
ing, the American worker is 
likely to rebel. 

In a wider context such 
rebellion may be futile. One 
does not have to be Sir James 
Goldsmith to accept that the 
blessings of free trade are not 
unmixed. Americans and Euro- 
peans consume a hugely dis- 
proportionate slice of the 
global pie. It may be that, in a 
world without trade barriers, 
fairer shares are Inevitable. 

As the defenders of free 
trade will point out there is no 
reason that the pie should not 
become big enough for every- 
one to be better off; and even 
in the short run, those few who 
stay at the forefront of know- 
ledge may hold on to their big- 
ger slices. Meanwhile, the aver- 
age American or European 
worker could face a starker 
choice: work harder for less, or 
do not work at alL 

Again, of course, this is 
splendid news for the world's 
stock markets. In the period of 
transition to global equilib- 
rium, the providers of capital 
can secure skilled labour at 
cheaper rates than before. For 
workers, too, this makes the 
stock market all the more 
attractive. After all. if the 
TnBr-hinp is going to put you 
out of work, you might as well 
have shares in it 




Palladium puts on a show 


The price of palladium has 
doubled in the past 12 months 
to a five-year peak. 

The metal is a key material 
in multi-layer ceramic capaci- 
tors for which demand is 
booming because they are used 
in a wide variety or electronic 
equipment such as mobile tele- 
phones and personal comput- 
ers. So analysts and traders 
will be looking for clues about 
where the palladium price is 
likely to go next when Johnson 
Matthey, the world's biggest 
platinum group metals 
marketing group, presents its 


interim review tomorrow. 

In its annual review in May. 
JM pointed out that Russia, 
the biggest palladium pro- 
ducer, was likely to feed the 
market with extra metal when- 
ever the price increased sub- 
stantially and therefore palla- 
dium would remain relatively 
stable in a range between *125 
and *145 a troy ounce. The 
price has been above *160 
recently but the strength of the 
yen against the US dollar has 
made palladium look relatively 
cheap to the Japanese who 
produce most of the world's 


multi-layer capacitors. 

While it might have second 
thoughts about palladium, JM 
seems unlikely to change its 
platinum price forecast which 
has proven to be very accurate 
so far. In May JM suggested 
platinum, used mainly in cata- 
lysts, would range between 
*380 and *430 an ounce and 
was likely to average *400 in 
1994. 

Other events this week 
inalmifl Metal Bulletin's China 
Metals Conference in Beijing, 
starting an Wednesday, while 
the World Gold Council on 


Tuesday will release in London 
its latest gold demand trends 
report On Thursday RTZ. the 
world's biggest mining com- 
pany, will give a briefing to the 
UK Association of Mining 
Analysts. 

In Brussels, meanwhile, a 
two-day meeting of European 
Union agriculture ministers 
commences today. The minis- 
ters are expected to give guide- 
lines to the European Commis- 
sion on its powers to 
implement agricultural 
changes to respect the new 
Gatt world trade accord. 


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FIN ANCI A L TIMES 


MONDAY NOVEM.BE3R.14; 1954 


WORLD BOND MARKETS: This Week 


NEW YORK 


The most important event in 
the US credit markets this . 
week will be tomorrow's 
meeting: of the Federal 
Reserve's policy-making 
committee, at which Fed 
officials will decide to what 
extent another round of 
monetary tightening is 
required. 

Analysts think the starting 
point for the Fed's 
deliberations Trill be an 
increase of half a percentage 
point in its target for the Fed 
funds rate, pushing it up to 5V* 
per cent. Anything less - or 
Indeed, nothing - would ring 
alarm bells, provoking fears 
that the Fed was not being 
tough enough on inflation. 

Since a half-point increase Is 
already discounted by bond 
prices, such an outcome could 
provoke little action. But the 
more tantalising question is 
whether the Fed will 
demonstrate its resolve - and, 
incidentally, provide some 
welcome relief for the dollar - 
by lilting the target rate by up 
to a full percentage point. 


Richard Tomkins II LONDON 



US 

Benchmark ytetd curve (%)' 

11/11*4—. Month J0O <= 

8-25 

7.75 -- -- > 

7425 

6.75 
&25 


0 10 yean 20 

■as ytakJs an maricat convention 
Source: Marti Lynch 


Any such move Is likely to 
be greeted positively by the 
bond market, on the basis that 
it would signal a tough 
inflationary stance. 

The Fed apart, it Is a busy 
week for economic data; but 
the figures that will be most 
closely watched are those for 
consumer prices, due out on 
Wednesday. Salomon Brothers 
forecasts that, excluding food 
and energy, the October 
year-on-year figure will remain 
at 3.0 per cent 


Philip* Goggao' . 


The gilts market faces a busy 
week, with traders awaiting a 
host of UK economic statistics 
and a potential rise in US 
interest rates. 

The prices data will the 
focus of most attention, with 
producer price details out 
today and consumer prices on 
Wednesday. The Bank of 
England expressed concern in 
its last inflation report that 
higher input prices (reflecting 
the rising costs of raw 
materials) might be passed 
through to producer output 
prices and then to the 
consumer. 

With October’s input prices 
expected to show an annual 
rise of 7 per cent, the gilts 
market might take inflationary 
fright. Retail price inflation is 
also expected to edge up in 
October, with the headline 
figure rising faster than the 
underlying, because of the 
recent rise in mortgage rates. 

Recent statistics have 
pointed to continued economic 
strength, and Ms Katy Peters, 
senior economist at Daiwa 


UK 

Benchmark yield curve {%)’ 

11/11/94—. Month ago <= 
9-25 - 



0 5 years 20 25 

■A# yields ate market convention 
Sana: Marti Lynch 


Europe, thinks third -quarter 
gross domestic product figures, 
released on Friday, will be 
revised up to 0.8 per cent 
growth from the previously 
estimated 0.7 per cent. 

Whatever the UK news, the 
gilts market will find it 
difficult to escape the influence 
of the US. Ms Peters thinks the 
market would respond better 
to a substantial rise in rates, of 
say a full percentage point, 
which would show that the Fed 
is ahead of the game. 


FRANKFORT 


Last week, it was the US 
mid-term elections. This week, 
it is the open market 
committee meeting of the US 
Federal Reserve. 

The first has consequences 
for the speed of interest rate 
rises next year, the second for 
rates in the immediate future. 
Both are at the centre of the 
German bond market’s 
interest. 

The Republican victory in 
Congress could accelerate the 
rise in US interest rates if tax 
cuts are passed. Mr George 
Magnus, S.G. Warburg’s chief 
economist, told German 
investors. This would cause 
the Fed to act faster to ward 
off inflation. 

“We could then see US 
interest rates rising more 
significantly." he said. 

He forecast a further two 
point rise in the federal funds 
rate In 1995 after tomorrow's 
expected move of half a point 
or more. 

"There is uncertainty over 
when the Fed will really push 
rates up into the 7 per cent 



Andrew Fisher 


Germany 

Benchmark yield cave flfif 
11/11*4— Month ago = 


7.50 - - 


6.50 


5.50 1 


4JjQ l 

0 10 yrs 20 

"A* yields vs market c on v e nt ion 
Source: Marrffl Lynch 


area - that's effectively where 
we think they will go." Real 
interest rates are “much too 
low” against Germany's and 
Japan's. 

German rates are also 
expected to move up again 
next year, says Mr Stefan 
Schneider, Warburg's German 
economist. 

With a strong economic 
recovery and upward wage 
pressures, “the Bundesbank 
will step on the brakes for the 
first time early next year”. 


TOKYO 


Bond market investors have, at 
least for the moment, , 
welcomed last week’s 
appointment of Mr Yasuo - • 
Matsushita, chairman of . . 

Sakura Bank, a leading 
/yiminarcial bank, as the new 
Bank of Japan governor. 

That Mr Matsushita, a 
former vice-minister of finance, 
has had 10 years experience ta - 
the private sector has triggered 
hopes of lower interest rates. - 
Many investors expect him 
to be more sympathetic to 
banks’ bad-loan problem and 
the sluggish demand for funds 
among corporations. ’ 

They hope that he will relax 
monetary policy, in contrast to 
his predecessor, Mr Yasushi 
Mleno, who is known for his 
efforts to burst the asset 
“bubble” of the late 19S0s. 

Traders on the bond futures 
markets said the March 1995 
futures contract had moved 
firmly since the 
announcem ent 
Hig h demand for funds 
among hanks and - 

on the other hand, is expected 


Bmko 


• ■ •. - 1 



.11/1104, Stas-. . 

5.00 — 


400 -r 
150 

r, . Ua; 

ido 





Source Merttyicb. . ; 


Banks looking to raised ;, 
year-end ftmds are expected to 
turn to-the two-mohth money 
• markets. ." " - . 

i Financial jng ti tiffiqfe gre - 
avoiding fimrfmg in the*’ 1 \ ' ' 

toree-E*mtheertiflcateirf;. 
deposit market, their usual ‘ 
source of capital, since toey ‘ 
want to avoid a rise miife . . 
short-term prime tending rate, 
which is linked to tfaeetooath 
CD rates, when leariing is 
stagnant.. • 




Capital & Credit 

Bears look for aggressive move by the Fed 


All eyes are on the Federal 
Reserve now as bond traders 
wait to see how aggressive the 
central bards is willing to be in 
tackling inflationary pressures 
in the economy. 

News last week that the pro- 
ducer price index tell by 0.5 per 
cent in October - analysts had 
expected a 0.1 per cent increase 
- did little to change the opin- 
ions of those economists who 
believe the Federal Reserve 
will boost the federal funds 
rate target by at least 50 basis 
points, ta 5% per cent, at its 
open market committee meet- 
ing tomorrow. 

Analysts say this anti-infla- 
tionary stance should cheer 
the bond market, but most 
believe investors have already 
accounted for such a rise. 

If the Fed decides not to act, 
however, the market could 
take a serious tumble. Mr John 
Lipsky, chief economist at 
Salomon Brothers says: “Inac- 
tion would be a significant 
negative for the market as it 
would fly In the face of recent 
data that the economy is above 
trend, instead of decelerating, 
as the Fed said it had expec- 
ted." 


The Salomon economist is 
one of a number on Wall Street 
who believes infla tion is a big- 
ger threat than the decrease in 
producer prices would indicate, 
because declining car and 
energy prices within the pro- 
ducer price index masked a 0.3 
per cent increase in intermedi- 
ate (partially-processed) goods. 

He believes the Fed might 
well increase the interest rate 
target to per cent in order 
to “convey immediately some- 
what more aggressive action 
and suggest that more action 
would come soon". 

Mr Allen Sinai, chief global 
economist at Lehman Brothers, 
believes a full point increase 
would be the best way to put 
the brake on Inflation, but does 
not see this as likely in the 
absence of clear signs of dan- 
gerously resurgent inflation. 

The key to managing infla- 
tion is timing, says Mr Sinai. 
“The game is to prevent infla- 
tion from picking up, but by 
the time it is accelerating and 
the producer and consumer 
price indices are picking up, I 
believe it is too late to prevent 
the inflationary process from 
getting out of hand.” 


He believes the Fed is 
attempting to act early and 
moderately to prevent infla- 
tion. T regret that members of 
the central bank have done so 
little to explain to the public 
what they are doing and why.” 

However, not all economists 
are so worried by inflation. 

Mr Robert Brusca, chief 
economist at Nikko Securities, 
believes the bond market is 
reacting bearishly to a phan- 
tasm of inflation. By his calcu- 
lations, increases in commod- 
ity prices have been nearly 
wiped out by decreases In 
durable goods labour costs, 
which he puts at down 52 per 
cent from the same period last 
year. 

"People have a tendency to 
emphasise things they see a 
lot.” he says. “You see com- 
modity prices every day. 
labour only comes out four 
times a year." 

This is the only explanation 
Mr Brusca sees for the bearish 
mood exhibited by the market 
last week. 

Markets were buoyed only 
for the briefest of moments on 
Thursday morning by the posi- 
tive producer price figures 


before falling by g to 92^ late 
in that session, which was the 
last of the week because the 
market was closed on Friday 
for the Veterans’ Day holiday. 

“On the one hand I have to 
say this is crazy.” Mr Brusca 
says of Thursday's extremely 
volatile session. “On the other, 
you have to say people are 
sceptical that inflation can 
stay low." 

Mr Brusca worries that 
overly tight monetary policy 
will depress the economy next 
year. While others ask whether 
a 50 basis point increase in 
rates may not be enough. 
Brusca turns the query 
around: “The question is: Is 50 
points too mud)?” he says. 

Certainly, traders will now 
be looking to Wednesday's 
release of consumer price 
information for more clues 
about inflationary pressures. 

Uncertainty about the 
impact of strong Republican 
gains in last Tuesday’s mid- 
term elections will also play- 
out In the markets. 

Initially, news that the party 
would control both houses of 
Congress sparked a rally but 
later, comments by Republican 


FINANCIAL TIMES 


CREDIT RATINGS 
in emerging markets 


This quarterly directory lists for the first time over 3000 
credit ratings of borrowers in: 

Argentina • B ahrain • Brazil • Bulgaria • Chile • China 
Colombia • Cyprus • Czech Republic • Egypt • Greece 
Hong Kong • Hungary • India • Indonesia • Israel 
Jordan • Korea • Kuwait • Lebanon • Malaysia • Mexico • Oman 
Pakistan • Philippines • Poland • Portugal • Qatar • Romania 
Russia • Saudi Arabia • Singapore • Slovenia • Slovakia 
South Africa • Sri Lanka • Taiwan • Thailand • Tunisia • Turkey 
United Arab Emirates • Uruguay • Venezuela 

r 

The ratings of 30 international and local credit rating 
agencies are included 


FT 


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leaders that they planned to 
decrease taxes and increase 
defence spending caused con- 
sternation and helped push 
markets down. 

Some analysts fear that grid- 
lock between the Republican 
Congress and Democratic pres- 
ident could hurt the value of 
the dollar and hit bonds by 
deterring foreigners from 
investing in US instruments, 
but few are willing to predict 
the long-term effect of divided 
government. 

In addition to promising 
more tax cuts and defence 
spending, the Republicans 
have pledged to work toward a 
balanced budget 

Salomon's Mr Lipsky 
believes the debate over 
whether to approve the Uru- 
guay Round agreement of the 
General Agreement on Tariffs 
and Trade will provide an 
important indication of future 
relations between the Congress 
and the executive. But he adds, 
“in the near-term the defining 
events are going to be eco- 
nomic f undame ntals and mone- 
tary policy”. 

Lisa firansten 


10-year benchmark bond yields 


Percent 

13 

12 - — 
11 





9 


io - - 





e ■ 

Jun 

Source: Oatastraam 


Jut 


Aus 1994 Sep 


Oct 




INTEREST RATES AT A CHANCE 

USA Japan 


*/»• % — 
V 4 i?/-\ 


Germany 


France- 


V Italy ; .‘--UK : - 


Discount 

4.00 

1.75 

450. • 

'. &4CP . • 

,7.50:.,: 


Overnight 

441 

2.25 . 

• 451 • : 

'■ -5^8 - - 

.■* : .v7,87 

■ - • r f SJ» : 

Three month 

5-38 

2.31 - 

' 550 - . 

.5M- . ■ 

‘84$/ 

/- &aa .• 

One year 

B.39 

2.75 

643- 

.020 » 

9Ji2 . 


Rve yea- 

7.69 

4JJ3 

- 7.03 ’ 

\ .7.71 


\ :KSt ■-/ 

Ten year 

8.00 

4.71 

7.49 - 

• -ais'.. 

'itao. 

.'if ‘ 


HI JVW V>VU » 

f wnc »n^» ffta. Q) UKeaaa rta. Soared Q »i if» . 




US TREASURY BOND FUTURES (CBTJ $100300 32nd» of 100% 



Open 

Sett price 

Change 

High . . 

, • Low. ; *•;. 

Est- vol.- 

'(^pen-inL 

Dec 

98-17 

9&U2 

-0-17 

96-20 

’ 9M1r ! . 

‘ 62^083 

':'-*38aaoo 

Mar 

85-28 

95-14 

. -0-17 

9540-/ 

' 95-13 j 

"-'11^29. 

' ;“\4d,628 ’ ' 

jun 

95-10 

94-27 

-0-17 

. 96-10 - 

• 84-27 7 

277" ’ 

:• .81,748 


International 


Italy prepares to re-enter the fray 


Italy looks set to be in the 
spotlight over the next few 
days in the international bond 
markets. Political uncertainty, 
which has been worrying the 
bond markets for much of the 
year, has been highlighted by 
this weekend's demonstrations 
in Rome against the budget 
proposals of Mr Silvio Berlus- 
coni's government. 

A parliamentary vote of con- 
fidence, called by the govern- 
ment an Friday and scheduled 
to take place today, will pro- 
vide a rurther immediate focus 
while debates on the budget 
are expected to continue until 
the end of the year. 

In addition. Italy is widely 
expected to re-enter the euro- 
markets soon, with a Y40Obn 
eurobond, in tranches of three-, 
10- and 20-year maturities, 
reported to be in the offing. 

That deal, which has not 
been confirmed, would be con- 
sistent with the government’s 
long-term strategy of broaden- 
ing Its investor base and 
lengthening the maturity pro- 
file of its debt. 

After making considerable 
headway in 1992 and 1993, the 
government bas run into prob- 
lems. On top of a general disen- 
chantment with bonds gener- 
ally, triggered by the February 
increase in US interest rates, 
overseas investors have been 
particularly worried by Italy's 
debt, which is expected to 
reach 12S per cent of GDP in 
1995, and its fiscal deficit. 


Since May, bond prices have 
fallen and yields risen, both in 
absolute terms and relative to 
the German bund. The yield 
spread between the 10-year 
Italian bond and the bund nar- 
rowed from more than 650 
basis points in early 1993 to 
fewer than 300 points earlier 
this year. 

Since May, however, it has 
climbed steadily, hovering 
around 450 basis points in trad- 
ing over the past two months. 

Foreigners have led the 
sell-off, with overseas investors 
accounting for less than 10 per 
cent of the overall debt com- 
pared with about 15 per cent 
last year. Analysts also suggest 
the average maturity of the 
debt - extended by six months 
to three years and five months 
since the end of 1992 - may 
have been shortened since the 
summer because the treasury 
has been forced to rely on 
shorter-term paper to cover its 
financing needs. 

After an initial welcome for 
Mr Berlusconi’s election “the 
euphoria has waned”, says Mr 
Jose Luis Alzola, analyst with 
Salomon Brothers. 

The delay in publication of 
the government's financial pro- 
gramme in July contributed to 
scepticism, while in August an 
increase in the discount rate 
from 7 per cent to 7.5 per cent 
followed selling pressure on 
bonds and on the lira. 

Investors have become con- 
cerned that measures to reduce 


the fiscal deficit contained In 
the 1995 budget proposals, cur- 
rently before parliament, are 
insufficiently radical and that 
political tensions may interfere 
with the budget’s approval. • 

“The budget reties exces- 
sively on one-off measures, 
thereby postponing more sig- 
nificant action for subsequent 
years,” insists Mr Alzola. 

“The markets are pretty 
sceptical Longer-term, the risk 
remains that persistently high 
fiscal deficits will trigger fur- 
ther currency weakness and 
high Inflatio n,” he adds. 

Inflation reached a 25-year 
low of 3.6 per cent in the sum- 
mer, but the markets are still 
worried or, in the words of Mr 
Richard Benzie, analyst with 
UBS, “deeply spooked" by the 
prospect of rising prices. 

"It is hard to get bullish," 
agrees Mr Graham McDevitt, 
bond strategist with Paribas 
Capital Markets, who says that 
part of the problem is the char- 
acter of Italy’s political pro- 
cess. "It is so drawn out, so 
painful,” he says of the discus- 
sions surrounding the 1995 
budget. “The budget will be a 
focus for the markets until the 
end of the year.” 

There are grounds to suggest 
that these fears are overdone. 
Worries that the debt burden 
will directly increase pressure 
on interest rates - by increas- 
ing government pressure on a 
limited pool of savings - may 
be exaggerated. 


J 


This is partly because the 
government is no longer so 
dependent on the domestic 
markets because of changes 
both in the international mar- 
ket and in Italy's own financial 
system. 

Italy’s capital market is now' 
much more open and inte- 
grated with the rest of the 
world, notes Mr Giorgio 
Radaellf, senior economist with 
Lehman Brothers Interna- 
tional. He suggests that the 
emphasis on debt as a percent- 
age of gross domestic product 
is misplaced and that the ratio 
between debt and private 
financial wealth is a more 
appropriate benchmark. 

“What drives real yields 
down in the long run is the 
ratio between debt and private 
financial wealth. Prospects for 
this ratio are neutral to good," 
he says. 

Also, Italy has "so far under- 
utilised foreign currency issu-,/?, 
ance as a source of funds,” he^ 
explains. Italy followed up a 
YSOObn eurobond issue in Jan- C 
uary, co-led by J J. Morgan and 
Daiwa, with a $4bn five-year 
deal in D-Marks, dollars and 
yen in July. 

Even after those issues, for- 
eign currency debt still 
amounted £o less than 4 per 
cent of total debt: further 
grounds, perhaps, for the mar- 
kets to believe that a new euro 
issue is in the pipeline. 

Richard Lapper 


NEW INTERNATIONAL BOND ISSUES 


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SBC Ran Dm im 250 
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OK193B 10 100.17* 7J01 +10 (7\i*}SBttHdeod 



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22 


FINANCIAL TIMES MONDAY NOVEMBER 14 IS* 


s 


EMERGING MARKETS: This Week 


Emerging Investor / Stephen Fidler 

Sun set to shine on Latin America 


Many of the political storm 
clouds that worried investors 
in Latin American stock mar' 
fcets earlier this year appear to 
have blown away. 

Presidential candidates 
pledging adherence to market- 
oriented economics have been 
returned by voters in the two 
largest economies, Brazil and 
Mexico. In Arg entina aryl Peru, 
the ament leaders, whose poli- 
cies have met the approval of 
foreign investors, look set for 
victory in elections next year. 

Furthermore, some econo- 
mists are starting to scale up 
their growth forecasts for 1995. 

“Growth prospects for Latin 
America are really extremely 
good. We are expecting growth 
could be as high as 5 per cent 
next year and that would maicw 
it the best year since 1980,” 
said Mr Geoffrey Dennis of 
Bear Stearns in New York. 
This year’s growth expectation 
averages about 3.5 per cent. 

Yet the feelgood factor has 
yet to assert itself. “The 
unease in Latin American mar- 
kets is because of US events 
that have tended to outweigh a 
quite substantial improvement 
in the background fundamen- 
tals of the region,” said Mr 
Dennis. 


Since US interest rates began 
to turn upwards in February. 
Latin American markets have 
been nervous. The nervousness 
was compounded by political 
assassinations and other 
events in Mexico. 

Yet given the supposed 
dependence of the Latin mar- 
kets on the US interest rate 
cycle, 1994 has not been too 
ted. Up to November 4, accord- 
ing to the International 
Finance Corporation, Latin 
American equity markets were 
up 12.4 per cent In dollar 
terms. Those investors who 
fought shy of Mexico, as well 
as Venezuela and Argentina, 
and invested in Brazil, which 
rose 77 per cent. Chile, up 47 
per cent, and Peru, up 58 per 
cent, have done best of alL 

While for non-dollar inves- 
tors the weakness of the US 
currency this year pares these 
gains, they still look reason- 
able when compared with most 
stock markets and wonderful 
compared with the dollar-based 
fixed-income markets. 

Returns in the US Treasury 
market could be the lowest 
since 1988. In emerging mar- 
kets, holders of Brady bonds 
are nursing heavy losses. 

Latin markets also look good 


Ten best performing stocks 


Friday Week on week dense 


Ertiyas Beacffik 
Atari® Holding 
Tetebras 

Light Services De BeWcade 
Tetebras flPfd) 

Parfrobras (Pkf) 

Compendia Energetics 
White Martins 
Etatrobras 

Setrobras (Pfd) 


CaanOT 

11/11/9* 

S 

K 

Turkey 

08628 

0.1607 

22.89 

Turkey 

0.7806 

0.1198 

18.13 

Brazil 

0.0442 

0.0065 

17.26 

Brazil 

0.4418 

0.0615 

1616 

Brazil 

0.0512 

0.0069 

15.00 

Brazil 

0.1612 

a0214 

15 29 

Brazil 

ail04 

0.0145 

15.08 

Brad 

a0144 

0.0019 

1465 

Brad 

Brazil 

0.4096 

0.3988 

0.0494 

0.0457 

13.70 

12^5 


when compared with most of 
their Aslan counterparts. 
Asia's emergers, according to 
the IFC, are down 6.6 per cent 
since the start of the year. 
Only South Korea, up 29.5 per 
cent, and India, up 14.6 per 
cent, stand out 

The outpeifonnance of Latin 
America is somewhat illusory, 
though. Aslan markets peaked 
late last year and were falling 
at the start of 1994 as the Latm 
markets were still rising. 

Most emerging market ana- 
lysts reckon Asia’s longer- 
standing growth record justi- 
fies the higher price/earnings 

ratios commanded by Asian 
companies, but a number 
believe the gap between the 
two regions should begin to 
close as Latin American 
growth proves persistent. 

Many say that this year s 
political and economic develop- 
ments in Brazil, in particular 
the prospects for success of the 
current anti-inflation plan, 
could provide the trigger for a 
more positive regional outlook. 

Mr Jaime de Pini6s. manag- 
ing director at Santander 
Investment in Madrid, said 
prospects for Brazilian growth 
in the coming year or so “will 
defy the logic of US interest 
rates". 

According to his company's 
Latin American strategist: 
“The stabilisation of Brazil will 
not only result In extraordi- 
nary returns for those willing 
to share the risks, but redraw 
the whole economic map of the 
region.” He is recommending 
investors go overweight in Bra- 
zil, as well as Chile. Mr de 
Pinies recommends an under- 
weight position in Mexico to 
compensate. 


Telmex volatility upsets Mexico 


Shares in Telmex, one of Latin 
America's most traded stocks, 
went on a roller coaster ride 
last week. And, as usual, took 
the Mexican market with it 
writes Ted Bardacke from 
Mexico City. 

On news that AT&T would 
Join Grnpo Alfa, the industrial 
conglomerate, to offer telecom- 
munications services when the 
Mexican market is opened op 
to competition in 1997, Telmex 
ADRs fell more than 10 per 
cent over a two-day period 
before recovering nearly half 
that amount in Friday’s trad- 
ing session to close at 853. 

The Mexican IPC index 
declined 2.12 per cent on the 
week after falling 4.83 per cent 
on Thursday. 

Although both Telmex and 
the market knew that serious 
competition was coining, there 
had always been an assump- 
tion that AT&T would go with 
Telmex, dominating the rap- 


According to Mr Roger 
Palmer, director of emerging 
markets at Kleinwort Benson 
Securities in London, most 
investment institutions are so 
underweight in Brazil that 
those seeking even a neutral 
position there could drive the 
market substantially higher. 

But Mr Richard Watkins of 
Latlnvest, a London-based bro- 
ker specialising in the region, 
sounded some notes of caution. 

The importance of choosing 
the right stocks is growing. It 
is no longer just enough to 
have chosen the right market 
And he saw government poli- 


cies as increasingly reflecting 
concerns about social welfare 
and income distribution. 

He also saw potential diffi- 
culties for the utility stocks 
which dominate many of the 
Latin markets. 

Over the next few years, 
time will run out on the 
monopoly positions that were 
granted by governments at the 
time of privatisation, to many 
utilities. Competition is about 
to enter the fray. While that 
may be good for economic effi- 
ciency, it could also shake 
some of the region’s most 
prominent stocks. 


CURRENCIES 




Turbulent week ahead for the dollar 


The week ahead promises to be a 
volatile one for the dollar with a critical 
meeting of the Federal Open Market 
Committee, and a bevy of important 
financial data, providing markets with 
much food for thought. 

These developments take place amid 
a market still trying to understand the 
implications of last week's shift in 
power towards the Republicans at the 
mid-term congressional elections. 

The dollar rally, prompted by Fed 
intervention to support the currency at 
the be ginning of the month, was given 
further momentum by the election 
results. This has led a number of 
observers to call a turn in the dollar. 


after nine months of decline. 

Decisive action from the Fed tomor- 
row could bolster the dollar’s rally. On 
the other h^qd, should the Fed disap- 
point the market, the dollar will be very 
vulnerable to renewed selling pressure, 
especially following its recovery over 
the past ten days. 

There will be no shortage of possible 
triggers for market concern. Prominent 
among th ««> wilL be the retail and 

capacity utilisation figures, out tomor- 
row; the consumer price index for Octo- 
ber, out cm Wednesday; and the Septem- 
ber merchandise trade report, released 
an Friday. 

The key issue, however, will clearly 


be the FOMC meeting. Most analysts 
are predicting a 50 basis point increase 
in the Fed funds rate. Indeed, a Reuters 
poll of 30 analysts last week found them 
to be unanimous on this point. 

Whether this will satisfy the market 
probably depends on the message which 
accompanies it The Fed is widely seen 
to have undermined the effectiveness of 
its last move, three months ago, by 
saying that it did not expect to have to 
tighten rates again for some time. This 
time round, the market view is that 50 
basis points will only be seen to be 
sufficient if the Fed clearly indicates 
the possibility of a similar rise at the 
December FOMC meeting. 


Those analysts predicting a moderate 
response from the Fed say that the US 
economy is not far outside the desired 
“box" of 2% per cent (growth) by 2% per 
cent (inflation). 

In Europe the main focus will be on 
the Nordic currencies, in the aftermath 
of yesterday's vote in Sweden on join- 
ing the European Union. A yes vote is 
seen as having the potential to help the 
Swedish krona reach SKr4-65 against 
the D-Mark, while some observers 
believe a rejection of EU membership 
could prompt a fall as low as SKrL 90- 

Other Nordic currencies, particularly 
the Finnish markka and the Danish 
krone, will take their lead from Sweden, j 


FT GUIDE TO WORLD CURRENCIES 


The latte below tfves Hie Mast avaBatato rates of enchant (jtwidadJ agafaat faw hay anoncta on Friday. November 11, 1994 . In aoma caaaa the raw (a nominal- M art nt rates n (ha average of buying and aathg rate* except 
Him they am shown to be otherwise. In some cam market rates have been caicutatBd from those at foreign curandas to which they ere bed 


Alas* 

Andorra {French Ft) 

(Sp Peseta) 
Angola gtawKnmss) 

AnUgiH (E Out $) 


Osmany (OMMti 

Ghana (Cadi 

(Mr (QbQ 


<*■« 
(ScWnq) 
Port Escudo) 


Owrtand (Dantaft Krona) 
Grenada £ Carr a 

O uU H nup a faefi) 

Oubbi fJ8S 

Guaumtaa (QjrezaQ 

9*« W 


Mm £Wwrmq 

Mnfci (Oho) 


a. <8pp sg 
r m 


Guyana (Guyaneses 

HSU (Gouda) 

Honduaa (Lempe^ 

Hong Kong <HKJ} 


Bar*. (CFA Ff) 

BamuCU (Bermudan $ 
Man (dQrfrurl 


*3 

iL*fl 

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Sooth Africa 


Idly growing Mexican market 
for years to come. 

Last week's tumble was a 
correction resulting from 
those dashed expectations, 
broken said. Future fluctua- 
tions of will be dependent on 
three main factors: how much 
protection Telmex receives 
from the Mexican government 
when it makes its announce- 
ment of new telecommunica- 
tions regulations; a detailed 
examination of its prepara- 
tions for competition in light 
of those regulations and 
AT&T’s recent decision and 
potential exchange rate losses, 
should the peso be devalued. 

By the end of trading on Fri- 
day, there appeared to be a 
consensus that the price of 
Telmex ADRs in New York 
would settle in the 350 to 355 
range, slightly lower than the 
355 to 360 range it had been 
trading in prior to AT&T’s 
announcement 


The Johannesburg stock 
exchange last week reversed 
its long-standing opposition to 
dual capacity trading and 
screen trading, and also said 
that it would permit 
brokerages to be 100 per cent 
foreign owned within a year of 
amendments to the stock 
exchange act being passed, 
writes Mark Suzman in 
Johannesburg. 

This follows Intensive 
discussions over a special 
report on the restructuring of 
the South African market 
which was released in August 
That document had proposed 
only that an initial 30 per cent 
of local brokers could be 
bought by foreigners and said 
that the introduction of dual 
capacity trading, whereby 
brokers can act as both agents 
and principals, would have to 
be preceded by the abolition of 
domestic exchange controls. 

However, after vociferous 
complaints by domestic and 
international banking groups, 
who had threatened to form a 
rival exchange if more radical 
reforms were not pursued, the 
JSE committee announced the 
modifications. It also said 
“informal but constr u c ti ve" 
discussions between domestic 
banks and the JSE on the 
question of admitting hanlot as 
members of the exchange had 
taken place and that formal 
negotiations would begin 
shortly. 

But the committee warned 
that the granting of per mission 
to JSE members to participate 
in dual capacity trading would 
be contingent on the 
development of proper 
surveillance systems and 
changes to the exchange's 







Hflxo* 


\^ s ' 


.r‘ ■ 


News round-up 


nffiMai rules to provide for the 
full transparency of such 
transactions, as well as 
amended capital requirements . 
for brokers. . 

The acceptance in principle 
of having domestic broking 
companies wholly owned by 

foreigners is merely an 

acknowledgment of the . . 
inevitable. Most of South - 
Africa’s Tnflto broking houses 
have already announced 

aDiances with international 

partners and .have declared 
their intention to formalise 
these as soon as the necessary 
legislative amendments have 
been accepted. 


■ Greece 

The Athens stock exchange 
was hit hard by the 
government's decision to 
postpone floating 25 per cent of 
OTE, the telecoms monopoly, 
writes Kerin Bag* in Athens. 

Mr V annia Tegopoulos of 
Midland Pantelakis Securities 
said: “The mood was gloomy 
already, so there was some 
heavy selling an the news. 
People are worried that the 
postponement may be 
indefinite ** 

The flotation, set for early 
December, was called off on 
Tuesday when the government 


was ipformedby CS First' ■'/ 
Boston, advisii^ohtlMsale, 
that the asking prico was.tpp 
. higlL ^aSegpvenanenttea 
hoped to raise about DiaaWm . 
($L4hnj, with lA percent of the 
company bedi^^lacedwfth 

institutions abroad through a 

book-building EatBeduriOTte" 
other? per centwasto fte'; 
offered to domestic investors. . 

However, firstsounffings,, 
indicated a share , price.15 per 
cent lower than the ' ■ 
government projection. The 
flotation is nowprayiaanally 
set far February. . 

Potential investoraWere-' - 
concerned ovier the _ . . 

gnrc mmftnP i; 

OTE' would remain under state 
management Uncertainties - 
over OTE's business' plan, the 
size of its licence foe and the 
absence of audits to western 
■European standards^alsa had 
an impact,- analysts sai<£ : 

Nonetheless, DEP, the' 
state-owned oil refining and 
petroleum products group, ' . 
which was due to follow OTE 
to tte market next year, said 
Its plans for a partial flotation 
would notte affected bythe 
postponement. 

• Edited by John Pitt Further 
coverage of emerging markets 
appears decay on the World 
Stock Markets page . 




Baring Securities emerging markets indices 



Woek on w 
Actual 


monment 

Percent 


Month on month movement 
Actual Percanl 


Year to data movement 
Actual Percent 


World (301) 

Latin America 
Argentina (20) 

Brazil (21) 

Chile (12) 

Mexico (25) 
Peru(16) 

Latin America (94) . 
Europe 
Greece (16) 
Portugal (18) 

Turkey (21) 

Europe (55) 

Asia 

Indonesia (26) 

Korea (23) 

Malaysia (23) 
Pakistan (11) 
Philippines (12) 
Thailand (25) 

Taiwan (32) 

Asia (152) 


+11.83 •• 


103.82 

240.13 

22523 

137A1 

952.31 

..170.03 


-11.56 

+10048 

+77.89 

-23.75 

+37022 

+21.06 


8225 

12324 

81.69 

—100.67 


150.00 

164^2 

222.67 

110^)4 

297.78 

269.82 

169.39 

.221.06 


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FINANCIAL TIMES MONDAY NOVEMBER 14 1994 


:3 


EQUITY MARKETS: This Week 


NEW YORK 


Testing time 
in prospect 
for investors 

^ w eek faces one of 
critical tests in several months. 
First, mvestors and traders will 
probably have to withstand an interest 
rate increase by the Federal Reserve, 
whose open market committee meets 
tomorrow to decide whether to tighten 
monetary policy for the sixth time in 10 
months. 

Second, the market will have to cope 
with more pronouncements from 
Republican leaders in Washington 
about what they plan to do now they 
have a majority in both houses of 
Congress. Some reckless talk from 
victorious Republicans unsettled the 
market at the end of last week - talk of 
big tax cuts (including the outright 
elimination of income tax) and 
increases in defence spending conjured 
up unwelcome images of ballooning 
deficits and rising interest rates. 

Euphoria over the elections should 
begin to die down this week, and the 
Republican party is likely to present a 
more carefully-considered agenda for 
the new Congress in the coming days. 
But Wall Street remains divided over 
whether the Republicans' mid-term 
triumphs will be good or bad for shares. 

Among those who see a brighter 
future under a Rep ublican Congress are 
Mr Joseph Liro and Mr Timothy 
Iliscock, economists with S.G. Warburg. 
Pronouncing the Clinton a gend a dead, 
they say proposals put forward by 
Republicans since the election - 
measures to cut taxes, resist a 
mtahmmi wage increase and reduce 
government regulation - are all 
positive for stocks. 

Others disagree. Mr David Shulman, 


Patrick Harverson 


Dow Jones Industrial Average 


3840 



chief strategist at Salomon Brothers, 
says euphoria over the victory of the 
more market-oriented Republicans will 
soon give way to a variety of concerns, 
such as the possibility that a 
Republican-controlled Congress will 
block the passage of free trade 
legislation, and the possibility that 
aggressive tax-cutting measures could 
unsettle a bond market worried about 
the deficit and an overheating economy. 
The outlook for share prices, concludes 
Mr Shulman, is bleak, and late last 
week he was recommending clients to 
sell into any post-election rally. 

That rally, however, never really 
materialised, and probably never will 
Share prices did jump sharply the 
morning after the mid-term election, 
but they soon fell back, and the market 
ended the week nursing losses. 

How the equity market will respond 
to another monetary tightening 
depends on the extent of any rate 
increase. Most analysts believe the Fed 
will raise its target for the federal funds 
rate from 4% to 5 Vi per cent. Any 
increase larger than 50 basis points 
could spell trouble for share prices, 
because it would deepen fears that the 
economic recovery and corporate 
earnings growth would be choked off if 
interest rates rose too far too fast 


LONDON 


Slowdown in 
trading makes 
for caution 

A growing mood of bullishness towards 
the UK equity market at the close of 
last week distinctly cooled as trading 
ground to a halt on a dismally quiet 
Friday afternoon. 

Formerly optimistic about short-term 
prospects after the mid-week rally 
following the US elections, some dealers 
now view the market with extreme 
caution In the short term, worried 
about the recent lack of business and 
the chances of a big sell-off on Wall 
Street There Is, however, increasing 
optimism for the rest of the year. 

But before UK equities attempt to 
reach some of the more realistic 
year-end forecasts, they have to face a 
significant hurdle in the form of the US 
Federal Reserve open market 
committee meeting in Washington 
tomorrow. 

Forecasts that the US Fed funds rate 
could be increased by up to a frill point 
were scaled back to 50 basis points after 
last week's economic news, which 
indicated a slowing of the economy. 

Any less or any more than that may be 
interpreted as bad news for markets. 

Some London market strategists 
argue that, US influences apart, there 
are many good reasons for buying UK 
stocks. They say London traditionally 
enjoys a pre-Christmas run and that 
this year should be no exception. 

The Budget, scheduled for November 
29. could cause problems but again 
most analysts are looking for a neutral 
outcome. 

Mr Edmond Warner of Kleinwort 
Benson, who expects a year-end FT-SE 
100 standing at 3,300, says: "Rarely can 
a budget have been approached with as 


Steve. Thompson 


FT-SE-A All-Sham Index 


1.545 



Sourca: FT Graphite 

little investor concern; prudence and 
rectitude have been the chancellor's 
watchwords since assuming office and, 
February's rate cut apart, be has stuck 
to the script" Mr Warner adds a note of 
caution, however, pointing out that 
"complacency is a dangerous state of 
mind and investors should not assume 
that November 29 will be without either 
risk or opportunity". 

NatWest Securities, in its Equity 
Market Analysis for November, expects 
a cautious budget "which will underpin 
rising credibility in the UK". The 
securities house is in the bullish camp 
regarding the end-year rally and 
maintains a year-end forecast of 3,400. It 
highlights the favourable domestic 
factors: profits upgrades; strong cash 
flow which funds 6 per cent real 
dividend growth; and rising sterling 
and gilt credibility. 

Mr Richard Jeffrey at Charterhouse 
Tiley Securities insists there is room for 
the equity market to move 200 points 
higher before the year-end. 

The market was satisfied with last 
week’s important company trading 
statements, which included double-digit 
dividend increases from Marks and 
Spencer, British Airways and BAA, and 
this week should see another cluster of 
big pay-outs. 


International offerings 


Honeymoon may be over 
for French privatisations 


On Wednesday morning, 
Officials from the French econ- 
omy ministry will announce 
the results of the public offer 
for Renault's flotation. 

They will do so with mixed 
emotions. The issue is set to be 
oversubscribed. But the motor 
group, one of the stars of the 
French public sector, has not 
seen the strength of demand 
enjoyed by previous sales In 
France's ambitions privatisa- 
tion prog ramme 

Most industry analysts 
expect the partial privatisation 
to draw between 1.5m and 2m 
private investors, compared 
with an average of between 
&5m and 3m for the previous 
four big privatisation sales. 

Last-minute buying may 
push up the number but an 
important question is emerg- 
ing: Are French privatisations 
losing their p ulling power? 

The answer depends on 
where one looks. While private 
investors have held back, insti- 
tutional investors - compris- 
ing the bulk of the foreign 
interest in French privatisa- 
tions - have rushed to buy 
Renault shares. The institu- 
tional tranche, less than 40 per 
cent of the overall issue, has 
been oversubscribed a healthy 
15 times. 

For individuals and institu- 
tions alike, however, future 
French privatisation issues are 
likely to be greeted with an 


OTHER MARKETS 


STOCKHOLM 

Equities face a volatile week, 
but whether they move up or 
down will depend on the 
outcome of yesterday's 
referendum on EU membership 
and nine-month figures from 
several big companies, writes 
Christopher Brown-Hurries. 

Two of the industrial 
heavyweights, Volvo and 
Ericsson, present their figures 
tomorrow and on Thursday 
respectively. 

In Ericsson’s case, 
expectations are running high 
due to the spectacular growth ‘ 
in sales of the group's cellular 
products and a strong set of 
eight-month figures from its 
Finnish rival, Nokia. 


Goldman Sachs in London is 
expecting nine-month profits of 
SKi3J5bn, up from SKrL86bn a 
year ago, and full-year profits 
of SKr5J5bn. 

AssiDomfln and SCA, two of 
the leading forestry groups, 
will also announce figures. 

With the pulp and paper sector 
in a dear uptrend, they are 
expected to be strong. 

SCA, which reports on 
Friday, is expected to disclose 
a profit of around SKrl.Sbn. 

The main interest will be in 
how its Mdlnlycke hygiene 
untt Is weathering increasing 
competition in the nappies 
(diapers) market 

Analysts say that whatever 
the outcome of the referendum, 
concern about the state of 
Sweden's finances will 


continue to affect equities via 
the bond market. Another 
cloud on the horizon for the 
export-orientated 
multinationals is the 
strengthening krona, which 
could harm next year’s 
earnings significantly if the 
trend continues. 

AMSTERDAM 

The final price for EVC 
International, the PVC maker 
which is being floated off by 
Enichem of Italy and ICI of the 
UK, is expected to be set today. 

On Friday, the market fields 
the third-quarter results from 
the paper and packaging 
group, KNP BT. 

Hoare Govett expects 
earnings per share of 63 cents 


for the quarter, compared with 
a loss of 11 cents in the year 
earlier period and a gain of 71 
cents in the second quarter of 
1994. 

ZURICH 

Today brings Holderbank's 
autumn news conference. 
Analysts and the cement 
company itself have 
anticipated a happy event; on 
November 4, Holderbank 
justified analysts' earnings 
upgrades by forecasting that 
consolidated net income for 
1994 would rise by 37 per cent, 
sharply above even the best 
expectations. 

Also today. Electrowatt hosts 
its news conference on 
business this year; last June 


the electric power generation 
and engineering group forecast 
that last year's record net 
profits should be "almost 
equalled". 

HELSINKI 

The subscription period is 
expected to begin today for the 
FM2bn share issue by 
K ansallis-Osak e-Panki (KOP). 
Finland's leading commercial 
bank. 

MILAN 

Riunione Adriatica Sicurta 
(RAS), the Italian insurer 
controlled by Allianz of 
Germany, is to launch its 
L2,300bn capital increase 
tomorrow. 


HONG KONG 

Investors in the Hong Kong 
market are likely to stay on 
the sidelines early this week, 
awaiting the outcome of 
tomorrow's US Federal Reserve 
open market committee 
meeting. 

Asian markets are expected 
to be weaker ahead of any 
decision on US Interest rates. 

Market speculation is that 
the FOMC will increase 
interest rates by up to 75 basis 
points, and Hong Kong rates 
will subsequently be pushed 
upwards. 

If the rise in US rates is kept 
to 50 points, brokers reckon 
Hong Kong stocks could be in 
for a slight rebound. If the rise 
Is 75 points, trading is expected 


increasingly sober response. 

For the French government, 
and the investment banks 
which place the privatisation 
shares, therefore, the going 
may become more difficult. 
"The honeymoon could be 
over,” says Mr Michel Fleuriet, 
president of Merrill Lynch 
Finance in Paris. 

There are several reasons. 
The depressed stock market, 
which has seen the CAC-40 
index of leading shares fail by 
almost 20 per cent since its 
February peak, is one factor 
that has weighed on Renault 
and which will continue to 
complicate privatisation issues. 
Of the previous four big priva- 
tisations, only Banque Nat- 
ionale de Paris is trading above 
its issue price. 

On the institutional side, 
such factors are compounded 
by the international competi- 
tion for investors' funds. “Ren- 
ault was a dream sale, with 
people approaching us,” says 
one banker In London. “But 
institutions have a lot of 
options coming up next year 
with Italian and Scandinavian 
privatisations coming to 
market" 

In spite of these obstacles, 
the French government and its 
investment bank advisers are 
sanguine. Mr Edmond Alphan- 
d§ry, the economy minister, 
argues that the strength of 
demand for the initial privati- 


to remain in a narrow range, 
with investors taking their cue 
from Wall Street. 

With little news on the 
corporate front, turnover is 
likely to remain thin - it was 
only HK$1.7bn last Thursday, 
one of the quietest days of the 
year. Takeover rumours will 
continue to haunt second and 
third liners. 

TOKYO 

James Capel's technical 
analysis team last week said 
large-scale investment 
decisions were not taking place 
in Japan: "the largest 
percentage movements are 
currently in stocks like Sega 
and Nintendo.” 

However, this week investors 


sations has been abnormal, 
and that momentum can be 
maintained in the privatisation 
drive. 

Many observers agree. Mr 
Fleuriet at Merrill Lynch 
claims that there remain a 
number of potentially attrac- 
tive assets in the public sector, 
citing Usinor Sacilor, the steel 
group, as a company which 
will benefit from an upturn in 
the Industry cycle. But he 
argues that the appeal of priva- 
tisation issues from now on 
will be on a case-by-case basis. 

Most are expected to draw 
continued competition from 
investment banks seeking a 
slice of the privatisation busi- 
ness. The placlngs, if not the 
advisory roles in the issues, 
have proved profitable. 

"The commission rates have 
totalled about 3 per cent of the 
amount raised, which has cre- 
ated a fairly lucrative busi- 
ness," says one foreign banker 
involved in some of the issues. 

A counterpart at another for- 
eign investment bank says that 
pricing will remain the key. 
"Renault was nicely priced, at 
about nine times prospective 
earnings." he says. “So long as 
the government remains realis- 
tic about its pricing then I 
don't see any major problems.” 

John Ridding and 
Martin Brice 


have another opportunity to 
relent. Economic data include 
trade figures and wholesale 
prices tomorrow, and money 
supply on Friday. 

The results list takes in 
Matsushita Electric Industrial 
tomorrow and East Japan 
Railway on Wednesday; on 
Thursday, Sony reports, with a 
clutch of trading houses, 
including Mitsui, Mitsubishi, 
Sumitomo and Marubeni. 

In a review of trading houses 
Baring Securities says the 
sector should be aggressively 
overweighted in the light of 
recent strong moves in world 
commodity markets, and the 
beginnings of recovery in the 
domestic economy. 

Compiled by William Cochrane 


CONTRACTS & TENDERS 



UNITED NATIONS 

CONFERENCE ON HUMAN SETTLEMENTS 
(HABITAT «) 

ISTANBUL, 3-H JUNE 1996 


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1) The Rrane Ministry of the Republic of Turkey, Housing Development Administration (HDA), invites 
qualified firms to express their interest In responding to a Request for Proposal (RFP) to undertake 
a contract for the organization of an International Trade Fair in Istanbul, Turkey. 

2) As proposed by the Preparatory Committee for Habitat II. the Trade Fair will take place In 
conjunction with the Second United Nations Conference on Human Settlements (Habitat II) which 
will be held in Istanbul during 3-14 June 1996. 

3) The theme of the Trade Fair shall be broad based, covering various disciplines related to housing 
and construction industries and human settlements, where innovative, appropriate, low-cost and 
environ men taity-sound products, services and technologies are presented. 

4) Qualifications of interested firms will include international experience in the organization and 
management of trade fairs, strong financial standing and international/local business contacts. 
The Housing Development Administration strongly encourages interested firms to associate with 
international/local counterparts. 

5) Interested firms may obtain a copy of pre-quaJification documents which include: 
cj ■Information and Documents Requested from the interested Firms" 

ii) "Work Description for the Organization and Management ol the Trade Fair" 

This material is available from the HDA (may be picked up in person or transmitted via fax) through 

the Habitat II Project Coordination Unit in Istanbul upon payment of a non-refundable fee of 

US £ 50. The address and fax number are provided below: 

T C Basbakadik Toplu Konut Idaresi Ba^kanfigi. Habitat II Praje Koordinasyon Bfrimi 

7. Mahalle I-7B, No. 12 AtakOy 34510 Istanbul - Turkey Fax No. (90-212) 559 05 09 

The Bank Address and Account Number where wire transfers should be made is as follows: 

T C Ziraat Bankasi Akay §ubesi - Bakanliklar Ankara - Turkey 

Account Title: Habitat II Proje Koordinasyon Biriml, Account No. 304001/276645-6 

6) The qualified firms are invited to send their Expressions of Interest with the required information 
and documents attached, in the English language, to the above address. All applications 
received by 1 December 1994 will be considered and evaluated by the HDA 

7) All the firms will be notified by 12 December 1994 and the short-listed firms will be asked to 
respond to an RFP. 




In adtitttofl to 
Industry, 


and economic attunUM, the financial market* and the forestry 
of the vote on membership of the European 


For dcmtlB oaadvarttefcigptease contact: 


Bradley Johnson In Stockholm 
Tot +46 8 7ftt 2345 
Fax: +46 6 7917060 


Uz Vaughan fn London 
TaL- +44 71 873 3472 
Pax: +44 71 873 3428 


FT Surveys 


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DON’T OVERl’AV! 


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TAX 1995 


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EXECUTION OHIY 


THE 


DAVID 

T HOMA S 

PRIZE 


David Thomas was a Financial Times journalist killed on assignment in 
Kuwait in April 1991. Before joining the FT he had worked for, among 
others, the Trades Union Congress. 

His life was characterised by original and radical thinking coupled 
with a search for new subjects and orthodoxies to challenge. 

In his memory a prize has been established to provide an annual study/ 
travel grant to enable the recipient to take a career break to explore a 
theme in the fields of industrial policy, third world development or the 
environment. 

The theme for the 1995 prize, worth not less than £3,000, is: 

DOES FREE TRADE THREATEN THE ENVIRONMENT? 

Applicants, aged under 35, of any nationality, should submit up to 1000 
words in English on this subject, together with a brief c.v. and a proposal 
outlining how the award would be used to explore this theme further. 

The award winner will be required to write a 1500 to 2000 word 
essay at the end of the study period. The essay will be considered for 
publication in the FT. 

CLOSING DATE JANUARY 6 1995 


Applications to: 

Robin Pauley, Managing Editor 
The Financial Times (L) 
Number One Southwark Bridge 
London SE1 9HL 


1 



















24 


FINANCIAL TIMES MONDAY NOVEMBER^;^. . 



WORLD STOCK MARKETS 


EUROPE 

AUSTtM(NHl1/Sety 


AuaAfr 

BMuff 

CredFf 

EAOoi 

EVN 


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1.970 

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835 

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780 

10 


819 

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10 



2.718 

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06 



1,321 

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1A 



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00 


584 

-3 744 

553 


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394 

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388 

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- 268 

171 

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1.100 

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874 



330 

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10 

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548 

14 



462 

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430 

1 2 



9,788 

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1.0 



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Maim 4.QG6 
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Artnd 5000 
BSL 4JS0 
BMnLx 15076 
BQnLPt 21500 
Bn06S 36,050 
Barco 2/403 
BBWI 23.726 
CBACU 12.176 
CUB 2,565 
CObas 6,410 
C'ddP 199 
CttTt 7.1 B0 
OBaJz 1JSO 
Saab 6.610 
BfnAC iflis 
Fans 2 _x» 

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fmmott 1993 
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PanLux 18.773 
Mm 9000 
Pwrfti 1930 
Rents 488 
HyBeto 4.780 
RyBAftf 4060 
Sacae 2 . 1 EO 
SGnAFV 2.193 
Gofhe 13050 
Sotvac 1055 
Sokov 15.000 
TrcHJ 9.610 
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— 7,890 6000 10 
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.... 1030 1050 60 

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:: JAMN (Nov 1 1 / Van) 


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1080 

655 

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12.40 

172 

7050 

129.50 

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122 as 00 10 
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1030 

1070 

754 

1020 

481 

386 

970 

880 


M6HW 

MXM 


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CanonS 

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449 22 
199 10 
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FRANCE (NOV IQ/Fis.1 


224 


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HBMkO 366 

HQHk 913 

Huarna 397 

Hufwft 782 

MnOMI 925 

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— NtfmBk 601 

— HKfll 



2050 —40 2060 2000 


738 595 1.1 
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STCT *>785 
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WDOdPI 

WTrrti 


292 

247 

S0OU 

828 

70S 

80S 

237 

42* 

464 


_ 170 
-03 274 
-.12 4.72 
-0* 9.98 
-vIS BJO 
-15 902 
+.02 285 
-04 505 
-03 522 
-.04 2S2 


208 82 209 

sisii Z 

810 50 
500 10 — 
7 JO 28 _. 
218 40 _ 
403 42 _ 
170 1.7 
270 40 _ 


- H0mKMfi(Nov11/ttJlS> 


rot*s= 

TU» 

TkaiCD 

Tokieci 

TOWOM 


,7.700 -100 21 JOT 17J0D — _ 


TVBrd 


TVSP* 
. HSen 

.. TWjS3 

. Tutapa 
TVSB 
TfcSBrt 

TVuCar 
TVu&p 
.... IfcuUM 
78.9 i«»a" 
TponPr 

Tory* 

_ TUMB 
„ T*t£C 


TWWI 

Tom 

Toco 

ToyoCn 

TdaAjL 

Tovoin 

TovoKn 

TowSi 

TyocaM 

ToynTR 

TayoTB 


ToyKJO 
_ TsOiMn 

_sr 


... virutioC 


.. YamKog 
YmTrui 


Yurun 

YUk£) 


Z TasTfe 
. YkflUfi 


vomLno 

rcawn 

Yuasa 

Zsxu 


2430 

1.160 

434 

513 

1.120 


1.650 
1.740 
27BO 
3.17D 
438 
587 
2220 
1.570 
589 
035 
490 
1040 
1.430 
762 
711 
970 
748 
T09 
405 
1.480 
481 
2000 
686 
560 
3X70 
2.1 TO 
470 
1050 
*05 
530 
604 
402 
3*8 
1 320 
1 100 
l.ZTQ 
BOO 
685 
1050 
1.450 
990 
1.190 
1080 
1.010 
540 
095 
791 
1.000 
»4 
575 
Bse 
928 
813 
666 


-30 3X30 2430 — 

-10 1.4201.110 -. 

+4 538 326 _ 

-7 597 41S — 

+10 1.3S0 1,070 0.7 
-2 620 421 „ 

+10 1.720 1.360 — 

+20 2X20 1J10 — 

-20 7 200 1 JTO _ 

-10 3.6*0 2780 ... 
-3/480 2.7*0 
-2 670 42S _ 

<5 70S SSO _. 

—30 2750 2X00 _ 

-20 2140 1050 00 
-12 7B0 *50 — 

+2 829 332 _ — 
+18 730 *70 _ — 

+20 1.850 1,480 _ ._ 

+10 1.560 1.190 — _ 
+4 7B6 575 .... — 
-11 B7B 670 ... _ 
+8 1X60 960 _. ... 
•8 77g 433 — .... 

-24 823 678 — — 

-8 437 Z85 
-10 20M 1.470 — — 

-9 590 4Zi 10 ... 
-2D 2060 l.*30 — 58 A 
♦14 754 515 _ .... 

♦15 733 524 — 

+« 3.480 2800 ... 

♦20 2250 1.760 — — 

ZiS 2! z z 

-3 505 330 

-4 6EQ 432 -.-. 
+9 955 345 .... — 
._ 436 285 - - 

_ 418 272 . 

+ 10 1.600 836 — _ 

_ 1X30 1X90 12 _ 

+10 1.430 930 _ — 

-18 9GB B20 .. _ 

-12 TXTO 592 1.1 _ 

♦10 2230 1030 - _. 
*20 1010 1X50 _ _. 
— 1250 800 - _. 
_ IXM 1.110 — _ 

-20 2290 1.940 06 .... 

... 1X50 980 — — 
+10 56* 350 10 — 

-6 aw 690 1.0 480 

-14 1.000 734 _ _ 
-30 1.120 780 — . 

_ 989 834 — 

-2 745 S23 — 

53C — _ 

900 — — 
*42 - _ 


Am ofPr 240 
BEAM 3300 

roftg 3870 

0201 3830 

ChUoir 87.73 
art* 700 
aoeP 23 
Crtfati 1805 
DFuto 283 
&V 8 4.17 

CttfKO 33L2SB 
HSflC 9228 
Mungo 1285 
HSacmB 57.75 
HuDOi 1CU5 
Heraw iss 
iWLna 48,40a) 
HKChG 14.10 
1000 
WAIr 31 

HR Be 2385 
19.70 
1705 
MiTa iax5 
Hap*U 7.75 
H ulUi BT 34.10 
Kysan 1276 
Jamu 8X3 
Mon 6180 
JSDtt 28X0 
W* Bus 14X0 
MandOr 005 
NmUBd 2400 
RaOaA 35.10 
SJWPf 57.75* 
Ettaufr 1300 
ShatE 270 
SkneO 9X0 
senaff *70 
SHKCO 3.77 
SwnA 5725 
smr«8 a 
TaleSr 32 50 
Vtul 2276 

WHOCfc 16.10 

VAnflOn 9 fa 
— 1280 


— rnoano 

— WWBA 


-.15 1800 235 40 M 
-20 GO 2280 21 22 2 
-.10 13.70 12*0 30 _ 
„ 52 anjn 27 _ 

-JO P 37 2 0 350 
_ 81 59 20 85.1 

-.13 14 213 — — 

-.4527X0 1800 17 _ 
1110 16J0 30 1*0 
-00 1220 243 28 
_ 80S 4.10 29 - 
-20 45 29 JO 10 — 

+23 131 SO 10 — 
+.10 21001100 4.7*24 
+X5 8000 47.75 23*10 
—05 13 JO 800 30 28 
-05 800 400 40 _ 

-008230 32.80 8* -+ 
+.132*05 13 25 ».7 

1S0O 10.10 IX 28 

—AO G4 28J0 3J1Z8 
+0S 3300 2000 30 — 
+JS3175 1700 25 — 
-XS 3025 77.73 4.0128 
-.10 17.70 12 3J — 

_10 10X0 5X0 *0 — 

_ 4250 27 50 20 ... 

-.15 332b 1125 4 8 - 
+ 05 13 10 700 00 _ 
-25 8*00 48.75 D.* — 
+.15 2250 2*00 QA ++ 

2G 12GO230 223 

-XS 12X0 920 08 — 
-05*2502020 40 
_ 39 30 3 0 65X 

77 4100 3A 682 
-JB10JB IT 28 480 
-07 6.15 285 50 82 
-20 15 *0 BXO J1J 287 

— 5.45 890 BA _ 
+02 700 306 27 _ 

_ 71 50 20 1B0 

_ 11X0 8 251SJ 

-20 3700 23 23 — 

—2D 41 23X0 22 ~ 

— 1350 1428 22 — 
-10 1800 8X3 2.4 — 

17.40 9X6 7.4 _ 


199427 Brrotea 
91400 BraeoA 
4138 Bmar 
41600 CAE 
8071 OnpbM 
700 Dnflp 
1400 

29200 Crottor 
81173 Carnb® ' 
7700 CBmaeo 
122983 Cartr^j 
229132 CanOes 
171503 CanPac 
100 CanDr 
32327 CanTfA 

5250 Cenmx 
280 CarMSK 
ere Mh 
13820 GanTng 
121+ (Man 
100 Catan 


m 

W -*ss 

13? SUW 134+ 
24 *J« S2*m 

18 +*a *18 ns 
180 1W 1 



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DSi 




43880 .TaAB . 
2E90TaVb - 
7981 7 T#*J» - • 
2 Tarra 

123738 Tlwmn* 
201512 TODon 
108725 Tfacrf* 


- HAUYSA(Nov11/MYR) 


IQgMO 

£700 

14EQ0 __ 

57344 Sanaa 

12100 GWSr 
32942 6UTC 
100 HBSA 
1«H0 NauRSU 
11050 HnUn 
22*00 KuMoB 
8200 UMf 
1567 HmDi 
100 Honftm 
4865D HudBay 
32015 IPLEfix 
18327 Emaaco 
8*228 fn?oa 

176622 bXO 
100 ‘ 





4 


MONTfKAL (No* 11 /CcnS). 
4 pm dose 


600 

4800 JGmtnX 
ism Hint 
139728 NatfihC 
20900 PtiIoq 
2800 OCM 
sn *wm 



5 ? 

Sf 

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AFRICA 

13V +J, Wt «l a SOUTH AFR1 


404 
Genms 22 
HX/ad 1400 
MaSnk 16X0381 
toMn 302 
MuPWP 3X8 
P0B 4X4 
Srr«0 685 
Tuaton 19.90 
TonSCB 10X0 


+02 5 BO 302 21 
.- 25.75 1 8JB 12 
-.10 19.10 1200 00 
-.101900 13X0 1.1 
+02 800 3.10 10 
+06 60S 2X8 0 A 
_ BX5 3X3 IX 

— 8/40 5X0 XX 

— 2* 10 1600 08 
-.10 20X01070 — 


_ 8061 Mum 


1040 
28 
TOO 

Ancoai m 

8l - ser^s 


SMSAPOREfftaall /SS) 


FfSttH 

GcfflAa 

MawfSr 

tnents 

Kasoa 

OCBC 

QU9 

S Art 


StaaT 

Stmt 

TaHxa 

UOB 


1060 
16X0 
200 
228 
545 
1270 
1500 
7X5 
1 * *Oa 
10X0 
3.10 
3.78 
■r .60 
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1270 
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+02 306 
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-00 1300 
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— 700 
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— 306 
-.02 4X6 

_ 500 

_ 1100 


1000 20 6.4 
is ax _ 
ZX* X* — 
245 X4 _ 
402 50 _ 
8 10 ... 
11 10 — 
5.75 ax — 
10 40 IX — 
1X10 10 _ 
3X6 IX _ 
XI B 80 _ 
308 1.7 _ 
8A6 20 — 


1100 , „ 
134 KenAd 

8600 ItBOT 
Z75 ladk 
17110 
7000 ^ 

341470 niaaiR 

an Lootaw 
177300 Uactor 
6*07 MvkRa 

200 *058 
3*000 Macocfi 
15*660 r 



Pa SOUTH AFRICA (Nov 11/ Raod) - "- 

♦ /- M0h MTM M 




111 

1700 MarTof 
18200 ilaW 
12482 WdmWl 
46460 MU 
27060 MctanA 


*1*88 
282906 NuatUD 
8950 NomaA 


NORTH AMERICA 


CANADA 

TOflOMTD (Nov 11 /Can S) 
4 pmefose 


-21 1.150 
+ 13 1.180 
-3 763 
+28 748 


AUSTRALIA (Nov 1 1 / MstS) 


AMcU 


3 65 
869 
J 82 
8X0 
275 
37* 
42* 


-OS 905 3X6 00 
-.Mil 12 842 3X322 
-08 6.10 XG5 1J — 
. .1100 7X5 30 31.9 
-05 302 260 20 _ 
-07 572 387 53 _ 
— * 79 3.80 5J — 


Ampobc 
Amts 
AUnon 
AN2BK 

AuaGLI _ _ _ 

AM 1.44 -01 IB 1.41 62 40 

BM> 1924a] -22 20.78 18 12 30.1 

-.02 3 58 2X0 4 4 60 
-06 4.62 3 IS 62 - 

... 106 0.6* - ... 

—20 15061280 4 6 32X 
+ 01 1.18 0.9* 8 7 .... 
-09 503 325 5.7 15X 
5.46 42b 50 1X8 
-30 2050 15.60 35 


BTRNy 


244 

320 

0X5 

1114 

,03 

333 

,700 

295 

120 


iez38a 
16EOO 
33930 
3551 B 
672 
344638 
100138 
27000 
12100 
20750 

ftfl/ 

230313 

509 

432D 

300 

ygxaa 

130161 

130X5 

18005 


ADM) 

Aptag 

Sera 

ATBtoE 

AttrNlG 

MOM 

AmBuT 

AtDOO 


BCSugAx 

BCTu 

BCE 

BCE Mr 

SERA 

BnMc 

BXMmm 

awAns 

Banc Ex 

Brtxlrfl 


17V iff 

lev sre>> mV 

8 -la 38 8 

19V -V 520 I8V 
14V S»V 14V 
33V -VKEV33V 
31V -V SK*. 31V 
14 V +VS1*V 14 
rs >2 -V 52* »v 

16 815 T4V 

10V -VS1M 104 
24V S?*4 24lj 

27 +V S27 264 
212 -2 215 210 
21 V -VST, 4 21V 


14070 NorcnEx 
106185 MHM 
407X44 nova 
BOO Monaco 
20000 NumacE 
T332S Oeax 
,48600 onur 
26000 Pkua 

72885 PocaP 
815564 PMM 
6400 ftgmA 
3000 

1000 P0USB 
39860 FWCan 
21900 PISEn 
192834 PDm 
31420 PowaQi 
13500 Powm 
17072 T 
500 ! 

26 

500 toSvrn 

59000 RngOB 

son RMdSt 

290800 Ran En 

USS 255® 

8070 FOoaf 
19608 X 
69460 


1* SI* - - . 

26-8VW? 55 Krtrat 

17H 8174 17S (WH 34 

471, ^Slft 4 f ISCOR 4X0 

i“ 

11% WSUVl'V KWO 7280 
74 -V S7V 74 ago K 6700 

« -10 435 485 UMA 93 

-V**5 SS 2 * UM ' 19-40 

S3V23V Uadcor 57.75 

as 

10V +Jj SIMi TOV RratxSr 18 

ISSS ss 

1B4 SAMnAn 86-75 
3400 
128 
4600 
48.73 
405 
TUB 
IBB 
81 



1BV HgOst 
TV 

51 -i S3 Si wAna 
480 +; 485 460 W Daap 

4 S!§ — 



• — 10.85 8-7D 4X 
. ' 29 T7JD.lt 

Z 123 9300 12 

— 258 .119 12 
—2840018750 10 

. — 606 3*4:20 

— 140 UB 00 
+JS - 87 26X0 — 

.- »a».u 

-6 60 42 7S 

-.10 400 . 148 U 
+0012129 9G0D OA 
—21 1025 6SO 28 
♦1 7300- 4817 

— 14X6 . 70S 40 

— - 36 2290 3 A 

— 42 30 40 

2JXJT1B0O 4.7 

. 80 8175 0J 

— JITS 70* 10 

— 130 5700 1.6- 

-00 47 2SJ2S _ . 

-42S28JB117G 70 
+23 34 18 T0 

—02 4X5 215 10 

+1 104 96 1A 

— 122 7B. 10 

-XS 8400 0300 17 
+2S 73 41 22- 

— 100 TB.1^4 

— 221308 — 

— 98. 2810 

— 91 56.60 ex 
-J3 7X8 4.n 80 
- _. 5800 3700 64 

3173 2300-1.* 

-25 2600 1600 10 

— 128 72 U 

+251300 8.70 _ 
-JO 20 16 IX 

— 106 7B 1.6 
+26 68 2600 1.1 

— 37 27 20 

+8 18* 102 22 

— 88 40 T0 

+26 47 2325 10 

+6 48B 359 14 
+25 7800 33 VI 

-1 230 181 18 

-2 804400 13 





MNa«MhM*n 


sS WailMuilaMautviaBVuBMMaakS 


TSnS&^Bcu. 


■ TOKYO - MOST ACTIVE STOCKS; 


18000 RayOUc 
Friday. Ncwupbor 11 


,It 

17 

si ""Ssi &sasagsg 7 

rasMWBBsa. 

SStfMSttSWffS. 

, 1904 




lfi r x 


“••.7X7 


1030 

Nonan 1070 


+3)1270 815 
♦3 569 *X1 „ 
+14 1.0*0 770 
-M 3.000 2X50 1 1 
+30 1.710 755 
-6 972 264 
... 1.700 1.230 . 

+ 10 2570 1.790 08 
+ 10 833 856 .... 
+5 896 - 

773 562 
+4 833 533 _ 


_ 3.80 25S 1* ... 
— 140 260 25 
+001230 790 22 
5.70 1! 


-X* 


189 40 


♦9 902 791 — .... CCATOl 823 

318 325 - — Cotes** AOTa 

z sx&'ta&u&B 

... Cruadr 128 +01 1 32 D.7B 0* 



Stocks 

Traded 

Ctoeing 

Prices 

Change 
on (tey 


Stooka 

Tradad 

Closing 

Prices 

Change 
on day 

(sippon Steel 

8/4m 

386 

+5 

Toshiba 

4.7m 

711 

-11 

Kawasaki Steel — — 

55m 

428 


NKK 

3.6m 

276 

-1 

Hitachi Zosen — 

5.4m 

545 

-5 

Sumflomo Mtl hd w 

■ 35m 

344 

+2 

Niefildo F4M tns 

5Xm 

832 

-2 

Kao Corp — 

35m 

1120 

-20 

Mitsubtahl Hvy 

5.1m 

742. 

-3 

Nomura Sacs 

35m 

187D 

. +10 



— Ohnar 

... Omron 1740 

... OnoPh 4.490 

— OnvrKas 1.300 

- OHM 810 

... (Mi 3090 

z^ % 

- HOT# 2.480 
.... PrimaU 403 


7» 10 - 


— KanoDo 

— . Kramau 

— KaaE 2X80 
_ MaVh 877 
... Kao 1,120 

— mat** 448 

.. RMKsn ago 

-. (MSI 428 


1.110 


-4 1.110 755 1 0 

-20 1.890 1,480 Z Z 
+40 50104X40 OJ - 

.10 1000 1050 10 _. 

+9 744 600 KkMl 

-'0^2-900 0.4 81 , LAMU 

-15 779 530 IX Z MM 

Z a r 

-« 810 *40 1.7 .... 

+21020 70S ... . 

-?JS 8 » z r 

-27 Bail 447 „ .... 

*20 1040 1,230 
-fl 704 515 _ 

+20 2690 2.110 OX 
+ 10 2130 1010 _ 

-10 2370 1050 ... 

+12 I.ooo seo .... 

-7 609 415 „ 

+4 1000 670 

-80 7X60 ex 60 as 

+00 8040 4.450 .... 

....4.6601370 ... 

1.020 1080 16 
-20 1 J0O 1060 _ 

♦3? 1010 1.720 ... 

+1 1.160 928 — 

♦io i.490 1080 10 — smrp 275 



Sn**to 5X5 
SaOM 5.48x9 


-0* 802 3< 

+.01 182 13 .... 

-01 1.*0 168 20 10 

-01 3.45 2*4 29 — 

- 3 88 2X0 4.1 _. 

-02 1.47 0X8 53 _ 
+.04 2 BO 207 7.1 71 X 
.. 160 212 70 .. 

-02 1.76 1 10 26 21 
-02 1.78 1.18 92 _ 
+05 285 2 14 60 

-07 202 1 ,2 13 — 
-05 282 1.55 — _. 
-.101100 9.75 30 410 
-08 400 263 7.4 - 
-.0* UB* 13.70 4 0 37.1 
+.04 1*0 2*5 59 _ 
-.05 339 255 IX 64.0 
_ 1104 6 82 4.7216 
... 4.21 285 4.0 _ 
13.08 9X7 *8 72X 
-IS 7.50 5X5 20 ... 
-.1* 7.20 115 0.5 5 X 
+03 279 1.90 28 .... 
-.12 4.15 3.05 _ ... 

-.02 6X2 3.90 17 _ 

-.12 215 1J8 

-.11 243 1.53 _ ._ 

-.05 148 280 4.7 13X 
-08 4X5 248 8X _ 
_ 9X6 160 OX _ 
+ *» 283 20 _ 
„ 6X8 3 70 
... 8X0 4 JO 14 
-.01 1.74 1.16 19 

z 515 12“ _ 

-OS 402 168 7.2 8X 
-07 7.10 5.80 10 ... 
-.0* 6.05 403 9X — 
_ 3X0 265 10 — 


INDICES 


US INDICES 


II 


Nm 

10 


(tor 

9 


W* 


-1994 


Law 


Nov Nor 

ID 9 




-199* 


Low 


Gawd (2902/77) 

18758.79 1910603 1923580 2M7DX0 1«2 

1775090 2V4 

hM 

MOnMMI/lAQ 

1B520 

1B71J 

19820 

234000 3(2 

198200 11/11 

p> MbtagfUl/SQ 

998.6 

1015X 

10272 

113010 3(2 

90400 5(5 

AnOta 

CMtAUhnOIVfZM 

8BR30 

387 JS 

38901 

48058 2 12 

37804 25(10 

Traded toda^zn/ffll 

103000 

103402 

1041X3 

1222X8 Iff 

101108 86 

<M«Mb 

BEUOfinm 

« 

138709 

13B8J3 

16600 9(2 

133839 7/10 

Brad 

Bonma canasai 

495200 

409200 

488500 6811000 13/8 

380000 3(1 

Crash 

MMaMsf(1D79 

390809 

380101 

3B»nR 

4Z7802 2010 

32984)3 20M 

CDmpofftsff (1979 

417068 

4179.1B 

41B10B 

480090 23(3 

3919X0 246 

PofflnfcS *471489 

291405 

201 a, a 

201043 

2I820B Iff 

1898X8 296 

0* 

PGA Gei C 1/1I/B0) 

9597.1 

56504 

58337 

887920 19(10 

3991X0 4(4 

Dmarak 

Cepannaoaasas/i/Bj) 

34090 

33809 

33838 

41079 2(2 

337.19 8(11 

HBtGmnt&MM) 

1931 .7 

1933.1 

1926.1 

197200 4ff 

1601.10 3(1 

Pima 

S6F 250 01/12/90 

W 

1293.15 

1291 08 

151320 2/2 

122708 25(10 

CAC 4001/1297) 

« 

I948JS 

194388 

2355X3 2/2 

1834X2 25(10 

Gamev 

WZAfcfcnOi (12(59 

78239 

784J0 

784X3 

85827 18/5 

7*204 500 

Catrwjtwfc(V)2(53 

2224.40 

222240 

223100 

24GB0O 2/S 

3)16X0 S/10 

OAX 00(12/87)1 

207035 

208240 

2096X7 

2271.11 IBff 

19808B 7/10 

Grasca 

AaniffiOl/lZffiQ 

B15J9 

80450 

00809 

110158 18(1 

80488 10ni 

Kon0 

Haig 3ax«31(7fBO 

935705 

939076 

9405.48 1228148 4(1 

83B8A4 46 

Uh 

BSE SantO 979) 

405870 

4138.73 

420068 

462057 12(9 

345400 Sri 

Indraraii 

Jakarta QhwiIMMB) 

51138 

51301 

51012 

81203 5(1 

443X2 12(7 

■i»««ll<< 

■SB) 0MoN(40/8q 

180036 

182400 

1833X2 

20BO1B 20(1 

169414 1/7 

Bma Oman M 0973 

641.05 

638.17 

83089 

817.17 106 

88805 m 

MB ftnral H/U94) 

1(070 

10290 

10208 

131800 1015 

84400 in 

Japan 

DD 225 (laws) 

192BOO 1925405 1942388 2159201 1W 

1738878 4/1 

MM 300 (1/10*3 

27800 

27040 

26003 

311X1 136 

298X2 4/1 

ToptxWttS) 

151707 

152003 

1533X6 

171273 136 

144507 4/1 

2W Sflcthn (4/1AQ 

2114,76 

2121/46 

213441 

294205 8(7 

187333 4(1 


PC (Nor 1978) 


M 248232 281194 2BBT.T7 812 


1857X3 2QM 


C8S TSSnGenffnd 83) 
CSS Al 9v (End 83) 


c*. « rwraj 

Narmp 

OdoSaaDBn/85 


DM8 CMP CAflS) 

Pntugd 

BTACI977) 


SE5 AMTpaa(2M/73 
sum Afetca 
JSE GoH C8«78| 

JSEmiraw® 

Satt Kona 

KreaQfD£*4ff/a0r 

Strata 

Dtaddd SE (3VI&8S) 


4311 

2732 

207803 

1048JS 

2MB0t 

28890 

58383 

21850V 

6BOOOV 

112257 

299X4 


4370 4392 

274.7 2717 

208808 2075.17 

104704 HE205 

290920 300908 

TfPflf} Tt ffi p q 

567X5 570X9 

21700 2,790 
B7710 67T80 

112807 113039 

29934 O 


3i n 

29400 3 l/i 


2U 

25700 2)0 

194501 11/7 

218) 

93 

281200 3K 

32329 4M 

174100 14)2 
644800 19(1 

886X7 2(4 

28606 28/10 

133170 8(7 

1138X2 27/10 
87607 27/10 

*WS^.UW 648268 644408 6449J9 7191.13 3019 519403 190 


312 

1211.10 SBC 

330GJ7 it\ 

322880 18/2 

64101 4/1 

23M0O 7/9 
DKXUB 11(11 

ii3a75 am 

31/1 


AOBrawRMm (1/2(37) 1484X0 14810 148100 180300 31/1 


SMB Bk M (31/1358) 1204.43 ,208.13 120257 14Z3J4 jirt 
I (T«/B7) 91903 9200) 917X7 T0B329 31/1 


- Dow John 

Nov 

•tor 

Hot 

1994 

Sncr wruoJtai 


11 

10 

9 

ust, 

UM 

Mgk 

Lob 

MCM 

3601.47 

382109 

3831.75 

387838 

3593JS 

3978JB 

41X2 





01/1) 

(</4) 

(31(164) 

<277/32) 

Hone Bonds 

94.32 

9483 

9407 

10801 

94J2 

109.77 

5409 





(21/11 

(11/11) 

(18(1065 

ndiwi) 

Traomrt 

147226 

1483.44 

1487.17 

1BSX9 

143850 

198229 

1232 





pz 

(WO 

(2(264) 

(87/33 

UMOto 

17671 

177.50 

177.4J 

2270B 

17885 

2SBXB 

1000 





(3(11 

am 

(3l6«a 

9W32) 

OJ mi Day'* h>gn (ui (3873X7 J Low (u) (380&T8 ) fTb»tvwja4*i 



Osyto togh 365808 (385606 1 Low 3614.92 (3614X2 1 (Am**) 



Standard and 

Awn 







Corapraha 3 

46235 

48*37 

J65X0 

48200 

43802 

482X0 

4.40 





era 

(«) 

(2(2641 

06(32) 

turaf 

550 99 

S303 

55402 

583.10 

51005 

863.10 

302 





cams 

(21/4) 

aenom 

(21/6/83 

ftanm 

4201 

4201 

4286 

*6X4 

4139 

4600 

804 





nva 

(4(4) 

(2BW93) 

(1/1074) 

NYSE Com& 

25125 

25435 

255.01 

287.71 

243.14 

287.71 

4X8 





(2/2, 

(4/4) 

anm 

P5M/42) 

4m»MHW 

446JH 

449159 

451X5 

48708 

42207 

48709 

2831 





am 

(286) 

(W64I 

(9)1273 

NASDAO Cop 

762.12 

76438 

767.25 

6(093 

89179 


5407 





118/3) 

1246) 

(18/3/94) 

(3170(73 

■ RATIOS 










Nov 4 

Oct 20 

Oct 21 Year ago 

Oow Janos Ind. Ov. Yield 

2.78 

2.70 

2. 

72 

2.80 



Nov 9 

Nov 2 

Oct 28 Year ago 

S 8 P Ind- Dtv. yield 

2.39 

2.39 

2.39 

2.41 

S 4 P Ind. P/E ratio 

2003 

20.95 

2a 82 28.61 


8 MBW 1 SET (30M/79 148822 1472S2 1*9883 175173*/) 
Hafeay 

aou Cmp^Jan 1885 209B4X 28S37X 25S5I0 2888300 13TT 
HOU 

MS CBpU rt 11/V70B 825.4- 62B.7 6280 848X0 2/1, 


12980J0 24/3 


99100 4M 


■ STAHPAHD Aim POORS 800 NWX Hmim SSOO Bm— Indw 
Open Sett price Change 
Dec 486.25 482.80 

Mar 466.70 465.70 

Jun - 469.55 -205 471.10 

Op«n imaivaT fptoa are lo» vanu day. 


High Low EsLvol. Opentnt 

-2.40 485X5 461.70 84.533 209,084 

-2.45 467.30 464.86 3.213 24.163 

468.80 87 3.652 


Euttradc 100CJ&1CW0I 1341.71 134153 13*114 1G4Q.tR 31/1 
an Top-100 (2B«S9 1187X3 118111 119106 131101 2/2 
JbpaDrpg 01/12(88) 04 33294 335.77 miff 5(1 

tataga Emg(7/I/S2) 180X4 1B101 18270 191 .79 2B« 

■ CAC-4Q STOCK IWX WjjjM (MATIF) (No* 10) 


sno 

1136X8 sno 
290X8 21/3 
14108 21/4 



Open 

Salt Price Change 


Low 

Eat. voL Open an. 

Nov 

1846.0 

1956.0 +6.0 

1859.0 

19350 

21004 

21026 

Pec 

19615 

19640 +8.0 

1666.5 

19460 

317 

26071 

Mar 

1979.0 

19715 +60 

1979.0 

1979.0 

1 

50 

Open ana spa** tor perim dsy. 






USE 0amp44MJB| 102807 103005 105101 131448 3/1 


82633 «4 


NSW YORK ACTTVB STOCKS 


Friday 

Tetetangs 
34C Cqcp 
RJR Nabtaa 
Fwtt 
Mndl 

nov Moms 
Sean Roe 
Amar Erma 
IBM 

Couneymta 


■ TRAOWQ ACnVTTT 


siocxa 

Ose 

Change 

• vuito (tTBUotn 



traded 

price 

on day 


Nov 11 

Nov 10 

Nov 9 

7.914.500 

53U 

+JM 

Hen York SE 

218.428 

280JS7B 337.783 

1827000 

23 

+M 

Amw 

16.057 

16.870 

16.175 

1697.500 

6*. 

+14 

NASDAQ 

HD 240.485 282.393 

2.454000 

389i 

+IH 

NYSE 




2J410OO 

3Wi 

-H 

issues Traded 

2070 

1902 

2011 

1081.000 

6tH 

♦H 

Riaes 

619 

807 

993 

10GS0OO 

5045 

-1ia 

Fats 

1,551 

1036 

1,199 

1.953.100 

314» 

+h 

Unchanged 

700 

758 

719 

1.847X00 

72% 

♦H 

New Highs 

18 

26 

S3 

1025.900 

14% 

-to 

New Lam 

223 

173 

189 


“Ba, hov 3 : Tainan HMoTtad Piter 8372X1. Kama Camp & 112901. Bate rabaa 0 # Ml aalcraa am 10Q eacape AuMa AO Orman 
and Mining - 600; AvdMa Tradad. 0ELM. HEX On. MB Oeu 88F250. CAC*a Eua Top-100, tSEQ OvaW; T«ns CancAtaWa A 
Mnrata and DAX - m ijm. «E Odd - 2«.7i JSE 28 MntiWa - 284* NYSE Al Comm* - 50 end StanMrf w* PoorV - 10. ® 
MontreaL ♦ Toronto. |e» CtotML I u) Unaw**4e. I IBUMK adv-hous mw Nov 11 - 2073.07 -S4 37 


T OaiflUbUL ' " C M ni a tari al 1800 GMT. • Ewtrfng benda. $ Industrial, pha UMt Fri one id and Tranapenawa 
* 7ha 5* Wl 5?* gl * ow9ata y 8 AM andVw* n the avaragse ol 9» nMaat and km« unces raoenad dm w on try each | 

BiwJt. whuflea *e aoual dayV togha uto tout (aucctoo Or TUUnrtl ma eastB 4w togneat ni tawear 1 -*- ' 

dung are day. (Dw Hyur— to bcadcata are previous dayU- 0 SutReor 10 ofliaal raeatouWaan. 


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i**'-*** 

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) . 


* 







place 

*0 

V«M 

:e 5^3 '£ O'^sS.’C' 


^ T- " “ C ~ 


nvtf* 

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t--. .. 


FINANCIAL times MONDAY NOVEMBER 14 1994 


25 


CURRENCIES AND MONEY 


Nov 11 

Europa 

Austria 

Belgium 

Denmark 

FWond 

Fiance 

Germany 

Greece 

Ireland 

ttaty 

Lurarnbduru 

Nettierian d a 

Norway 

Portugal 

Spain 

Sweden 

Switzerland 

UK 

Ecu 

soRr 

Americas 

Argentina 

Brazil 

Canada 


»f rcp-.fi 

fi 

■3A IN-Sr THE POUND’ 


_ : 


■: : 




Closing 

(TWtipottS 

Change 
on day 

BUVofter 

spread 

Day's Mid 
high low 

One month Throe moatfn 
Rate %PA Rnta tePA 

One year 
Rae %PA 

Bank of 
Eng. index 

1 17^162 

-00487 

084 - 240 

173136 172031 

17J119 

03 

172 

04 



115^ 

1 50^996 

-0.1577 

56S - 428 

505240 503550 

502696 

0.7 

50.1966 

OB 

50.0596 

05 

117.0 

1 9-5477 

-Q.0354 

412 - 642 

9.6700 0.5410 

9.5453 


0.56 

-0.5 

9.5396 

0.1 

117.1 

1 7.4356 

-0.0346 

261 - 455 

7.4720 7.4210 

• 

- 

- 

- 

- 

- 

893 


-£0171 

019 - 088 

8.4193 £4015 

£4032 

03 

6-3955 

0£ 

£3274 

0.9 

109B 

1 2.4438 

-00068 

425 - 450 

2.4499 2.4425 

2.4424 

07 

24382 

OB 

2.406 

1.5 

128.4 

1 378567 

-1.544 

245 - 889 

377.431 370241 

. 

- 

- 

- 

- 



1 1.0173 

-0.0018 

167 - 178 

1.0194 1.0155 

1-0171 

02 

1.0187 

02 

1.0186 

-0.1 

1049 

1 2504.10 

-5-99 

275 - 545 

2512.13 2502.68 

2509.7 

-2-7 

2521-1 

-2.7 

2571.8 

-27 

74.4 


-01577 

588 . 426 

503240 502550 

502696 

0.7 

501996 

0.8 

60.0596 

0£ 

117.0 

1 2,7405 

-00079 

391 - 419 

£7513 27390 

2.7381 

O.S 

27347 

0.9 

27002. 

1.5 

1203 


-O.05O5 

789 - 868 

10 7424 1 06778 

10.6829 

ao 

10.8848 

-0.1 

106835 

ao 

B£9 


-0561 

964 . 393 

252.014 249.205 

250.909 

-£3 

254-089 

-7.9 

. 

. 


i 203.358 

-0435 

153 - 562 

203.725 203.150 

203.688 

-1.9 

204253 

-2.0 

208.968 

-1.8 

85.9 


-0.0742 

004 - 220 

11.6922 11 £721 

11.6302 

-2_0 

11.8727 

-2.1 

11.8172 

-1£ 

76£ 


-00058 

475 - 492 

20536 20470 

2 £453 

1.8 

2-0378 

21 

1.9955 

2£ 

1220 

- 

- 

- 

• 

« 

- 

- 

- 

* 

- 

803 

1.2940 

-4.0035 

832-848 

1.2875 1.2830 

1284 

ao 

T£841 

041 

1-2785 

0.4 


0.918048 

- 

- 


. 


. 

. 





DOLLAR SPOT c CP,‘>lRD AGA» NST .3E4DQCLAR 


Ctaaing Change Bld/dter 
nJd-povn on day spread 


Day's mid 
high low 


One month Three months One year JP Morgen 
Rate %RA Rate %PA Rate KPA Wen 


(Sch) 10.7845 
(BFi) 31.4500 
(DKr) 5.9898 
/FM) 4.6493 
FFr) 5.255S 
(D) 1.5280 

(Dr) 235.450 
PQ 15723 
(L) 1565.70 
(Lfi) 31.4500 
(R) 1.7135 

(NKr) Sj 679S 
(E ^ 155.800 
(Pti$ 127.150 
(SKr) 7.2600 
(SPr) 1.2808 

83 1.5994 


- 1.47737 


IPeso) 

<W) 

(CS) 


1.5895 *0.0038 990 - 999 
1.3395 *0.0054 384 - 405 


1.6018 1.5974 
1.3441 13360 


+0.0038 

713-730 

21766 21705 

2+1712 

0.6 

21689 

0.4 

2.1685 

0.2 

86.7 

+0.0081 

958 ■ 046 

££104 £4950 

. 

- 

- 

• 




+04X128 

990-907 

1.6031 1.5983 

1.5989 

0.4 

15883 

0.3 

1.5912 

0.5 

61.7 

+00081 

235 - 273 

21328 21211 

2-1275 

-1 2 

21302 

-0.9 

2.1441 

-0.9 


+0.0198 

568 - 639 

123888 123523 

12.3514 

0.9 

123471 

0.4 

12.3019 

05 

re. 

+0-0417 

165 - 505 

50.3650 502030 

_ 

- 

. 

_ 


. 

re. 

-0609 

823 - 061 

150610 155.750 

155.487 

as 

154.472 

3a 

149.34? 

4 2 

190.6 

-0.0003 

878 - 912 

4.0995 4.0876 

. 

_ 



re 

_ 

_ 

+0005 

732 - 785 

25867 25726 

2-5808 

-Z2 

25898 

-22. 

2.6097 



-0.3387 

961 - 728 

306080 302500 

- 

- 


- 

re 


re. 

+00098 

970 - 005 

647124 5.9948 


_ 


. 

re 

_ 

re. 

+0.001 

494 - 520 

23577 2-3490 

. 

_ 


. 


. 

_ 

+0.0019 

293 - 341 

5.6435 £8263 

_ 



_ 

. 

_ 


+00171 

319 - 668 

£6142 6-5309 

. 

. 


. 

. 

» 

» 

+2£5 

472 - 544 

1277 £9 1274.24 

. 

. 


. 

. 

. 

re. 

+0.1235 

715 - 970 

41.8786 41.7578 

. 

. 


. 

re 

. 

re. 

+00488 

951 - 445 

400060 39£9S0 

- 

* 

- 

- 

* 

a. 

re. 


USA ($) 1.5984 

Pacffo/McUle East/ Africa 

*xtoMa (A S) 2.1254 

Hong Kong (HKS) 12J604 
^ (Re) 502336 

(Y) 155.937 
(MS) 4.0895 
Now Zealand (NZS) 2S750 
P»»*PP*nw (Peso) 38.3845 
Saudi Arabia (Sfl) 5.9988 
Snaapore ©5) 2 3507 

S Africa (Com.] (Rj 5.6317 
SAMca(Rn.) (R) 6J4&1 

Soteh Korea (Won) 127508 
Tehran (TS) 41.7843 

Ttotenl (B1) 39.9198 

BM /lBlhr KWM* in ew Pound Spot tatota show only ns law three as U ite places. fisreenf nesa we nor dksedy quoted to me 
ST ” rj ** ■ nw “‘ «■»- Statmowta calcUeted t» the Ba* ot Enatanct Bom nerags 1866 - 10O&U. Otter and Md-ates ei bah 

MS and ft* Ocftk Spot Ute dertusd Ian THE WVVREUTtnS ClOGtoO SPOT RATES. Some M*JXC sm ramrsd Or the F.T. 


CROSS RATES AND DERIVATIVES 


Europe 

Austria 
Belgium 
Denmark 
FMand 
Franca 
Gomany 
Greece 
Ireland 
Italy 

Uotombourg 
NetTmtancfe 
Norway 
Portugal 
Span 
Sweden 
Switzerland 
UK 
Feu 
SORT 
Americas 
Argentina 
Brazl 
Canada 

Mexico (New Peso) 

USA (S) 

PacMc/MUdto East/ Africa 
AustraSo (AS) 12289 

Hong Kona (HKS) 7.7284 
Indte (Hs) 31.4088 

Japan (Y) 97.5000 

Malaysia (MS) 2.5570 

New Zealand (NZS) ' .6106 
PW U pptoes (Peso) 24.0000 
Saud Arabia (SR) 3.7508 
Stegapme (S$) 1.4888 

S Africa (Com) <R) 38213 

S Africa (fin.) (Ft) 4.0950 
South Korea (Won) 797.250 
Taiwan (T$) 26.1258 

Tludend (B1) 24.9600 

fSOR ran tor New 10. BkVottar spreads n me Dot* Spat table shew only me last tf*i 
but are imcAed by current irons rated UK. tratand & ECU we quoted <n US cunencv. JP. Morgan nomnal 


WORLD INTEREST RATES 


MONEY RATES 

Nommber 11 Over One Three She 
night monlh mtfts mtha 


Ona (joreb. 
year Her. 


Os. 

rate 


Rape 


(Peso) 

(W) 

(CS) 


08375 


-0048 

620 - 670 

10.7750 1Q.7480 

10.7645 

00 

10.7843 

ao 

10.6895 

ar 

104.4 

-015 

300 - 700 

31.5400 31.4300 

31+4525 

-Ol 

31.41 

06 

31 £1 

a4 

108.0 

-00318 

870 - 725 

5.9010 

5.9649 

5.9739 

-08 

£9623 

-0.8 

e.oaoa 

-02 

10£4 

-OQ202 

442 ■ 543 

4.6841 

46382 

4.6501 

-02 

4.8488 

02 

A6433 

ai 

83.0 

-00193 

545 ■ 565 

55610 

£2490 

55567 

-03 

55544 

0.1 

£3423 

0£ 

1062 

-00068 

275 - 284 

1.5310 

1.5260 

1-5276 

03 

1.5255 

OS 

U127 

1.0 

107.1 

-1JS 

300 - 600 

235.700 235 J? 50 

235.72 

-14 

230275 

-1.4 

238 £25 

-13 

603 

+00053 

718 - 728 

1.5773 

1.5689 

1-6723 

ao 

1-5723 

ao 

'£593 

as 

- 

-6.3 

520 - 620 

1569.00 1564.20 

1569.05 

-3-3 

1S77.7 

-3.1 

161 £2 

-A4 

74£ 

-015 

300 - 700 

31.5400 31.4300 

314525 

-ai 

31.41 

as 

31 £1 

04 

10£0 

-0.0077 

130 - 140 

1.7197 

1.7121 

1.7135 

0.0 

1.JT16 

0£ 

1.7 

as 

105.6 

-0.0425 

785 - 80S 

6 7115 

6.6751 

£6822 

-05 

£895 

-09 

6.727 

-07 

9SB 

-0£0S 

700 - 900 

157.430 155.070 

156426 

—4-8 

157 £5 

-4£ 

182.05 

-4JO 

9£3 

-0.48 

050 - 250 

127.270 127.050 

127.48 

-3.1 

120145 

-3.1 

13078 

-ZB 

00.9 

-0.0583 

548 ■ 651 

7.3044 

7.2301 

7.2748 

-2.4 

7204 

-24 

7444 

-2£ 

83B 

-0.0057 

BOS - 810 

1.2835 

1.2775 

12795 

\2 

1-2755 

1.7 

1.2565 

IB 

107£ 

+00026 

990 - 997 

1.6031 

1.5982 

1.5989 

0.4 

1.6982 

03 

1-5912 

05 

B£9 

+0.0054 

451 - 481 

14*461 

1.2436 

14*451 

0-5 

1£4S 

02 

1£446 

ai 

- 

♦00006 

000 - 001 

1.0001 

0.9993 








+0.002 

370 - 380 

OJJ390 

(X8350 

. 

- 

- 


_ 

. 

_ 

+0.0002 

579 - 584 

1-0592 

1.3576 

1-3577 

02 

13576 

02 

1.3632 

-04 

834 

-0.0005 

370 - 410 

£4410 

34380 

£44 

-03 

£4418 

-03 

34492 

-0£ 

- 


• 


- 


- 

■ 

- 

- 

■ 

952 

+0.0029 

260 - 298 

1.3316 

1.3250 

1.3291 

-0-2 

1.3298 

-03 

1-3372 

-0.8 

67.0 

-aoooi 

279 - 283 

7.7289 

7.7279 

7.7265 

03 

7.726 

ai 

7.7339 

-ai 

_ 

-0.025 

050 - 125 

31.4350 31.4050 

31.4938 

-£2 

31.6388 

-2.9 

- 

- 

_ 

-054 

500 - 500 

97.6000 97.4800 

97.25 

3.1 

96.65 

3£ 

93.685 

£7 

1507 

-04)043 

565 - 575 

£5590 

£5565 

2-5478 

4.3 

2-6365 

£2 

2.61 

-2.1 


+0.0005 

093- 119 

1 6142 

1 6088 

1.6115 

-0.7 

1.6134 

-07 

1.8187 

-as 

- 

-025 

500 - 500 

24 3000 23 9500 

- 

- 

- 

- 

. 

• 

_ 

+00001 

505 - 510 

3.7510 

3.7505 

£7521 

-0.4 

£7562 

-0£ 

3.7748 

-06 

- 

-0.0017 

883 - 703 

1.471b 

1.4690 

1.4676 

1£ 

1.4827 

10 

1.4453 

1.7 

- 

-00045 

205 - 220 

£5220 

3.5195 


-5.0 

£5675 

-52 

£7266 

-5.8 

- 

+0.004 

850 - 050 

4 1300 

4 0850 

4.1175 

-£B 

4.1B5 

-68 

4.4 

-74 

- 

+0.3 

200 - 300 

797-300 796.900 

800^5 

-4£ 

803.75 

-32 

82225 

-3.1 


+00348 

235 - 280 

26.1280 26.0880 

26.1458 

-0.9 

28-1858 

-OS 

- 

. 


-0.01 

500 - 700 

24.9600 24.9000 

25.0325 

-3.5 

25.16 

-32 

25.64 

-2.7 

- 


Belgium 

4% 

45 

S4 


6% 

7.40 

450 

_ 

week ago 

4* 

4fl 

Si* 

54 

64 

7j40 

450 

- 

France 

54 

54 

5« 

5K 

694 

£00 

- 

£75 

weak ago 

64 

64 

5% 

68 

64 

£00 

- 

£75 

Germany 

4.90 

4B5 

£15 

£25 

£80 

6.00 

4.50 

4.85 

week ago 

4.90 

425 

£16 

£25 

£60 

6.00 

4.50 

455 

ketand 

64 

5U 

5% 

64 

74 

- 

- 

£25 

week ago 


5V. 

S% 

64 

74 

- 

- 

£25 

ttaty 

B4 

BK 

03 

as 

88 

- 

750 

£20 

week ago 

a>* 

au 

8* 

9i 

104 

- 

750 

£20 

NetherisNts 

4,64 

5.05 

£25 

£38 

£76 

- 

£25 

_ 

week ago 

4£4 

£05 

£24 

£38 

£76 

- 

£25 

- 

Sudani tend 

3% 

3fi 

4 

4Vfc 

414 

£625 

350 

- 

week ago 

3% 

3D 

44 

4M 

444 

£625 

350 

- 

OS 

45 

Sfi 

5K 

64 

6B 

- 

4.00 

- 

weak ego 

*i 

St 

63 

6 

644 

- 

4.00 

- 

Japan 

2 V. 

2V. 

21* 

24 

ZM 

- 

1.75 

— 

week ago 

zy. 

2V 

24 

24 

sv 

- 

1.75 

- 

■ S UBOR FT London 








llt^rtSUK FLJr^y 

- 

5te 

SB 

6tt 

644 

- 

- 

- 

week ago 

- 

5% 

5te 

64 

6B 

- 

- 

- 

US Doner COa 

_ 

£18 

£60 

£86 

£50 

- 

- 

- 

week ago 

_ 

£18 

£45 

£83 

6.47 

- 

- 

- 

SDR LMud Da 

— 

3h 

34 

3* 

J 

— 

— 

- 

woe* ego 

- 

3H 

34 

3+* 


- 

- 

- 


ECU Unfe+d Os nrfd rate 1 n«t Ste: 3 mma: Sg; 
ratee we o ttered ratta tor Si Dm quoted id the mart 
day. The bento ere: Bunkov Trust, Bank al Tokyo, 
hid iter am shown tar 8w dearad a Money Rates. 


B nftc 61; ffh. S UBOR mrtonk Bung 
by tor iritmna. hanks at 11am end 
Berthe* National Weearinster. 

US S CDe and SDH LMsd Deports ff* 


EURO CURRENCY INTEREST RATES 

New 11 Short 7 days One Three 


term 


notice 


month 


months 


Stx 

months 


One 

year 


» ore na dtactiy quoted to the rnarkat 
Irvucee Nan 10. Bare — wa ge lOBfMOO 


EXCHANGE CROSS RATES 

Nov 11 ffr DKr FFr 


DM 


Pta 


SKr 


SPr 


CS 


Ecu 


BelgUen 

(8Fr) 

100 

1BB8 

1£71 

4.858 

2.022 

4978 

£449 

2153 

4954 

4045 

23.08 

4.072 

1.988 

4.318 

3.179 

309.9 

2.553 

Denmark 

(DKr) 

5259 

10 

£804 

2560 

1565 

2823 

2.671 

11.19 

261.0 

2125 

12.18 

2.145 

1.047 

2575 

1.675 

1835 

1545 

France 

(FFr) 

59.85 

1156 

10 

2-906 

1B10 

2979 

3561 

12.71 

296.5 

2415 

1351 

2437 

1.190 

2.684 

1.902 

1865 

1528 

Germany 

(DM) 

2058 

3506 

3439 

1 

0416 

1026 

1.122 

4570 

1025 

83.18 

4.750 

0838 

0409 

0.889 

0554 

6£79 

0525 

Ireland 

(KJ 

49.46 

9587 

£285 

2403 

1 

246? 

2596 

1050 

245.0 

1695 

11.42 

2.014 

0983 

2.136 

1.572 

1S3.3 

1583 

Italy 

W 

2509 

0581 

0338 

0.038 

a04i 

100. 

0109 

0.427 

9552 

£119 

0484 

0082 

OJMO 

0.087 

0.0E4 

£226 

0051 


<FH 

18-35 

3.483 

3566 

0.882 

0371 

9135 

1 

3586 

90.92 

74.17 

4536 

0.747 

0365 

0792 

0.683 

56 88 

0468 

Norway 

(NK i) 

47,10 

p fyw 

7570 

2288 

aas2 

2345 

2566 

10 

2333 

1904 

1067 

1.918 

0938 

2.034 

1.487 

146.0 

150? 

Portugal 

(Ea) 

2ai8 

3531 

3573 

0B81 

0.406 

1005 

1.100 

4586 

100. 

8158 

4559 

new 

0401 

0.872 

0842 

6258 

0515 

Spain 

(Pta) 

24.74 

4596 

£134 

1B02 

0500 

1232 

1548 

£253 

1225 

100. 

£711 

1507 

0492 

1.068 

0787 

76.68 

0632 

Sweden 

(SKr) 

43.32 

H923 

7538 

2.1DS 

0578 

2157 

2561 

9.199 

21 AS 

175.1 

10 

1.764 

0581 

1571 

1577 

134.3 

1.106 

Switzerland 

(SR) 

24.56 

4562 

4.104 

1.193 

0497 

1223 

1.338 

5515 

121.7 

9957 

5.669 

T 

0488 

1.081 

0.781 

76.12 

0627 

UK 

« 

5050 

9547 

'8405 

2444 

1.017 

2504 

2.741 

1088 

2495 

203.3 

11.81 

2.048 

1 

2.172 

1599 

1S£9 

1584 

Canada 

(C$) 

23.16 

4585 

£870 

1.12S 

0468 

1153 

1562 

4.917 

114.7 

93.60 

5545 

0543 

0480 

1 

0.738 

71.78 

0591 

US 

ffl 

57.48 

5271 

£256 

1528 

0.636 

1566 

1.714 

&B7B 

1555 

127.1 

7281 

1561 

0.625 

1.359 

1 

97.50 

ft 603 

Japan 

m 

•» tn 

£124 

£391 

1568 

0552 

1606 

1.758 

£861 

159.8 

1304 

7.447 

1.314 

0641 

1.393 

1.026 

100. 

0824 

Ecu 

Oanfati Kura. 

39.17 7.435 6.540 1503 £782 1950 £135 £318 194.1 

fivncti fiaie. Naroertwi Kronor, art °rew*Wi Kronor par 10; Botglan fiunu. Yen. Eieiala, Ura end teuem 

158.3 
gv IDOL 

9.042 

1.695 

0779 

1.692 

1545 

121.4 

1 


■ D-MARK nnURM (IMM) OM 125X00 per DM 



Open 

Sett price 

Chtmge 

High 

Low 

EstvoJ 

Open int 

Dec 

08534 

06539 

+00006 

aes53 

06529 

44.801 

91,723 

Mar 

06552 

05651 

+05006 

05561 

05641 

571 

6.179 

Jm 

- 

06571 

+00007 

05570 

- 

9 

1281 


■ Pound hi New York 


■ SWISS H1AHC FUTURES PMM) SR- 12SJ00 par SFr 


Hue 11 

— gpsa 

— Prev. date 

Espat 

15969 

15010 

1 cdfl 

15964 

15004 

3 nth 

15959 

15999 

>yf 

15685 

1 5926 


FT GUIDE to WORLD CURRENCES 

The FT Guide to World Currencies 
table can be found on tfte Companies 
8 Finance page In today's etfitton. 



Dec 

07799 

07807 

+00013 

07833 

07793 

20565 

44,288 


M» 

07661 

07844 

+00014 

ataoi 

0.7833 

567 

2510 

— . 

Am 

07890 

a7B8Z 

+00015 

079 00 

07800 

12 

201 


(IMM) Yen 12.5 per Yen 100 


LONDON MONEY RATES 



Open 

Suit price 

Change 

Ugh 

Low 

EsLuoi 

Open InL 

Dec 

1.0263 

15272 

+00017 

15292 

1.0267 

20288 

67.188 

Mar 

1.0346 

1.0363 

+05016 

15376 

1.0348 

1J83 

8280 

3* 

. 

1.0468 

+00019 

- 

- 

S 

7T5 


KWWR QMM) BB2J00 par E 


Dec 

1.8010 

15964 

-00038 

15016 

15946 

18526 

48.706 

Mar 

15074 

75944 

•00040 

15000 

15040 

50 

718 

Jun 


15922 

-00040 

15970 

15900 

2 

17 


Nov 11 

Over- 

ri(rftt 

7 days 
notice 

One 

month 

Three 

months 

Six 

months 

One 

year 

interbank Stating 

44, -3I 2 

54-4% 

5» - 8fi 

8 - 64 

SA 

74-74 

Staring CDs 

- 


5B-5JJ 

6-5% 

8A V. 

74-74 

Treaswy Hto 

- 

- 

SA - Si* 

SIS - 5 H 

- 

- 

Bank Bto 

- 

- 

SA - 5A 

SB-6H 

Sri -«,% 

• 

Locel authority depe. 

a n - m 

54 - 54 

54-S4 

8,’r Si» 

64 64 

- 7A 

Diacourn Market daps 

5-44 

5, 1 . - 4H 

- 


- 

- 

LK deartng bank base lendmg tree 54i per cert from September 12 1994 

Up 10 1 1-3 3-8 £9 

month month months months 

9-12 

months 


■ P I BU m i P IBA 8K C/> OPTIOHS E31JZS0 (cants per pound) 

spare 
Price 
1.525 
1.550 
1.575 
1800 
MBS 
MSB 

Pretend da/*voL Oalte 441,761 Puts 434.712. Prev. day's Often kit. Cate 71909 Ate 11335 


34. 


3'j 


Nov 

- CALLS - 
Dec 

Jan 

Nov 

— PUTS — 
Dee 

Jan 

726 

4.76 

251 

057 

720 

552 

3.04 

1.59 

0.70 

054 . 

753 

5/48 

£80 

933 

155 

072 

018 

252 

457 

004 

025 

078 

1.74 

£29 

£32 

022 

073 

1.43 

2.49 

354 

£78 


Carts of Tax dap pOdOOO) 1*8 4 3\ 

Carta ol Tax dap. wider CIOOjOOO te 1>afic.Dtcoete wtthdrawn tar cren Ape 

Are. teater rate of (tecoat 5.6486PC. ECGO Sxed rate Sdg. Dqxm finance kteto up day Qa 31. 

1894. Apwd rate lor period No* 26, 19B4 as Dec 23. ««. Scheme* II A II 7 JOpc. BWwenca me to 

period Oct 1, IBM to Oof 31. 19M, Scheme* IV 6 V SPWpe. finance House Base Rats 6pc from Nov 

1.1994 

BANK OP ENGLAND TREASURY BILL TENDER 


BANK RETURN 

BANKING DEPARTMENT 



NO V 11 

Nov 4 


NO* 1! 

Nov 4 

fiHi on offer 

£250m 

CSOOn 

Top ecceptef rets 

557SS* 

55753% 

ToM ot jppflcaSons 

Cl 310m 

eiB«3ffl 

Ave. tats trf flstourt 

5.6466% 

£5304% 

Total steaded 

£350m 

£350m 

Auorege ytrid 

£7272% 

£6077% 

Ml accreted bid 

maw; 

£68510 

Offer at neat fereto 

C3S0m 

£350m 

Moment at mbv level 

50* 

67% 

Mn. accept Old 182 flays 




Wednesday Increase or 

November 9. 1994 decrease tar week 


Capital 

PubUc deposits 

Bankers deposits 

Reserve and other accounts 


£ £ 
14,553.000 

1.114,098.447 -3733SJ23 

1.71A8S2A71 +70.149.105 

3A37^86A14 4563^15.194 



£488528,132 

+595520976 

Assets 

Government securities 

Advance and other accounts 

Premise, equipment aod other sees 

Notes 

Cain 

1530424.789 

£001574,715 

439.690.981 

8558.305 

179342 

-408564590 

+1.734548589 

-731,111510 

+756562 

-246 

ISSUE DEPARTMENT 

8488328.132 

+605528578 

LUHMes 

Notee tn dreukdlan 

Notes In Banking Department 

18,203541.695 

£868505 

+9540538 

+759,662 


16^10.000500 

+10500500 

Other Government sacurittee 

Other Securities 

9504,749531 

£605250.169 

+234501583 

-224,601593 


UK GILTS PRICES 


«Tk« Mad 
hobs Price E ■* f- C« 


i8Aio^mooo 


Lret OW 
si tee 


+1(U)00,000 


BASE LENDING RATES 


Adam 5 Company — 575 

Med TYuM Bark -5.75 

AIBBartt 5.75 

•Henry Ansbacher 5.75 

BrriiotBaroda 5.75 

Banco Bfcaa Vizcaya- 5.75 

BankofCypna 5.75 

Barts erf Ireland -£75 

eerktilnaa £75 

Bated Sccdand 5-75 

aareteysBa* — 5.75 

BABkdMdEaai-...^.75 
•BDWiShftey&CoUl £75 
CL Bsrte Nedertend .-£75 

CttwteNA .—£75 

Oydesdate Barts £75 

The Cooperate* Bar* £75 

Couds&Co ... £75 

CretfiLyonnds £75 

Cyprus Ftoputv Bank . £75 


% 

Duncan Lmrie £75 

Exeter Bar* Limited .. .£75 

HranOal & Gen Bark ££ 

•Robed Remtag 8 CD - 575 

Girobartt 3.75 

•Guinness Mahon £75 

Hafate Bank AG ZUriCh £75 

•Harndro Bank £75 

Hentable & Gen Inv Bk. £75 

•Hri Semite £75 

C.Hoarafi Co £75 

HcngFcng & Shenghd. £75 
Jdbn Hodga Bank .... £75 
•Leopold Joseph & Sore £75 


UaydsBenk 

.. £75 

Megten) Bank Ud .. 

..£75 

tariandBank 

..£75 

• Mart Banking 

— 6 

NaNVestamsser... 

..£75 

•flea Burners 

...£75 


■RarfugheBarteUfte 
no longer aulhoreed as 
a baring msatuBon. 8 
Royd Bk of Sccdand . £75 
•SmMi 8 Wtersn Secs £75 

TS8 £75 

•Unfed Bk d Kuwart - -5.75 
Lkirfy Trust Bank Pte ..£.75 

Western Trust £75 

Whlteaway UteUaw . .. £75 
YortehaeBanh £75 

• Mamoerscil London 
kwealmart Baring 

AESoaa&on 
* In aomnotraaon 


wv% Ann 
Mom Price E 4#- 0$ 


lost C8y 
ad tea 


unite him 
Notes Price £ *b Era 


meres 

Air 


Lad Oly 

m tee 


ssasa^’isSj 

12pc 1885 1C»i 

Ettfi 3pc6as 1990-95— 

UH 4 pC 1995 1KA 

Tress 12i«pc 1995# — I06%h 

14pC 1996 

i5V,pcis96tt. 111A 

art 131c* i«e» — TW 
QUMStellOpClBK — 

Ureas Qw7pe««tt— ^ 

Tlwa 13LC* 1997# |«H3 

BatellfePBlfEi- 

Tms84tPCl9a7« 101B 

Eu*15peI997 11TA 

]W 14ftff 105S* 

T«»v** ym=7 s 

TrwBliPClBB5-fleft- »2 

140C 1B0D-1 — 

Trias 

Excb 12PC1898 — iiiaf 

TtenaJUKT^T- — 

Each IZVl* 1«8 JJffl 

Aan ro>2* )89S. 

Tram 6pc 1999 tt ** 


SSS5®5»->^ 

TiBB«0teteia89 a»8 

Bpc jTKflT 97 f< 

WA 

Trees tape 2000 11W 

ll*JS 

91& 

20 S2 USA 


— . 1.900 
-.1 2£50 

214 

-.1 2300 
-.1 840 

-2 770 

-2 1,150 
~.f BOO 
£400 


~S 1JXB 
-2 X2DD 
-.1 1780 

-JZ 5£S0 
-2 830 

-2 3JBD 
-2 B.T9) 
-2 T2Q0 
-2 .970 
-2 935 

~.i as® 
-2 WOO 
-.1 1050 
~2 1252 
-X £800 


Myi7HrT7 
MSiflS 
Kyi Nvl 

JtfiJy2i 
uyi5Nn5 
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ujisuns 
Hyianns 
Mns 
JtSZJy22 
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11.101345 
3X61294 
2851271 
1481254 
10.101238 
1181305 
2711300 
11101268 
11101240 
308 - 

.1&61302 
1171253 
2171341 
208T2SS 
13-81273 
248 - 

2191331 
T7.101306 
24O130B 
17.101259 
SB 1347 
-2281264 
17.101268 

42 ~ 


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Trass 8Vl*2004tt 

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Tree* 12 »jbc 2003-5 — 

rtu*200B» 

tee 2003-8** - 

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Tiett Bpc 2000** 

TtS M tec 2009 — 


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Trias 8 V4pc 2010— B0&* 

tear Bpc Ln 2011 tt 103d 

Trees 9BC 2012** 103H 

Trees s^a* a»e-) 2»- 73^ 

Trees flpc2D13{J 94g 

7£pc 2012-1S** 92>S 

TrreS&VpC 20T7** 102A 

B*h12pc 2013-17 129%W 


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07Vri 

-.6 

-3 

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a 

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3412 teZSOcZS 
6300 MrESnrTS 

731274 

1931248 

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106iJ 

165J1 

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— J 
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2,400 Je70e7 
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1231247 

17.101295 

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191334 

1531293 

srurcl*- - 
2 «a*'i»._. 
2‘ipt 13 

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(74 81 

—4803 

152-W 

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138 

986 

-5 

7,197 te16J)16 

951339 

21jBC '16 

(81 .6) 

177.’. 

107% 

. S4B 

-3 

-3 

-.7 

1350 1*26 Se2B 
£321 te'SOelS 
£100 *25 5*25 

2231301 
£9 1343 
1931335 

IhScTO (8301 

Z^pcINtt <97 71 

4%pf30» I13S.11 

>32, \ 
110,*, 
'09.’. 


1J00 Brl8Srl6 108 1313 
800 NOT Uc27 »9 - 

1,500 MrWSeM IU 1315 

1.300 My20N»20 17.101317 

1.000 *P21 0c21 M 9 - 

1£U JalBJylS 13£ 1314 
1.750 MyJO NrSO 17101J18 
£100 feZiftta I17IJ19 
£300 FSI6AU16 
£700 JfCEJyZB 
£750 AolS 0cl6 
2.350 £17Jy17 

1.300 Jai6Jy22 


II 71J20 
20.8 1321 
991322 
1051323 
1S£ - 


4,750 

£773 Js12Jy12 
£151 FeSAuS 
WOO UnoSelD 
£250 MT27SS27 
300 £26 Jy26 
7SSD ftZ5«a 
WOO JB12DS12 


-_i 1796 By22 1*22 17.10(242 

2JJ00 BMJlStSJa £11 - 

-3 £500 JBMKT 

-2 £359 M3SB3 

~3 1171 JSI4J7T4 

-2 4.406 teZBMZS 

^2 4350 mm 


months prior to Issue! an) ruw Men st^usred to nrhed ratasop 
gT RP1 to 100 si January 1987. Convetoon lac tor 3 945. API tor 
January 1994: 1413 and to August 1994. 144.7 


1110 - 
1 £61245 
316 1701 
43)330 

JJ ]3 ^ Other Fixed Interest 

1171962 MMiDWlOT<pe2009__ 

7.11 1260 ®' BB U 1 apc20l2 

kctndCwB’uc'IO. — 

9pc CSS 1996 


iatetr-3. 


itecaw-— — 

7pc2D01 tt 

9k a: 2092 .. 



IQpc 2003 ■■■———— IOTA 

Tina 1 1 1 2jic 2SXT1— 4 : — TUB 
• Trip 1 stock. « T«4ee « 

STOCK INDICES 

Mv)1Nav10Nov9 H» 8 Hw 7 


-2 £527 F£7feST 
-2 TJSBMOOeM 
~3 £503 tefl See 
-2 1JB2 0 1*19 SB19 


26J1244 

OBWilpC 4B 

auiao wdiasn^pett fli* 

Sji349 «“* , a» ,B1 «- *!• 

If I _ TnsapcV/tB 34% 


Hyttatedwl5pe2011_ 
Leeds T3»50c BBS 

-7£12« 

21101352 H»nft 11%J)c2007. 


£21281 OsBdbZiapc. 
1181290 TnaiSizpc 


26% 


I09U 

116*4 

100% 
100 
140B 
126 
3M, 
32 % 
nau 


■nwatetenB an appScaOcn. E Attokm tnib. sd Ex cBiridsBcL CkMlng 


07 359 fill Ail 

-A WOO Jel Dei 

-16 110 dpi 0c1 

as 56 teSOcS W 1324 NidteAngls 3^*2021. 132 

-22 275 5MM0C W1238 4% p tL»04 126% 

08 475 dpi OM 2S81315 WteSkfaWtfC 2DQS 138% 

irtd-pricas daswi ki potnda. WeeMy p wcar riiiv dmgaa are g e tau tawd en a Fnto io Fidov bsnsi. 


100 Hr24Se24 
45 UylSff»l5 
303 «(.» CLci 
726 J330J»30 
315 Afll OtI 
40 Mf31H>30 
40 ApISeS 

5 IteteJeOc 
26 UtoJefiriJe 

6 testers 
26 MrlScI 
60 Ja3DJ*30 
50 

50 1*1 S«1 


T93 - 

4Y31637 
- 14££ 

883 1428 
10-93 - 

3-93 3146 
693 - 

8Y3 - 

3Y3 327 5 
8*93 3381 
1'93 3« 
7U3 - 

B-83 - 


FT-SE1P0 
FT-fiE Wo 2S0 

FT-SE lid 250 « Its 
FT-SE-A 350 
fTSS SrozfGap 
FT-8E SmaBSp as lft 
F-SEA WSren . 


— 1994“ SteOBeonp. 

Hflh Low Low 

XffSS J1036 3099J 30618 30B8B 35203 267&B 3=03 0865 

353^6. 3509 35333 3519.7 3520,1 - 41523 3363.4 41528 1379.4 

35403 354£9 3S333 361917 3630-1 4)807 3362.4 41617 13703 

1544.7 1556.0 15S3.6 1538.4 153B2 17703 1451.3 17783 0645 

1781021782.13 1781 £3 177£24 177071 298196 1771 £4 209488 1383.79 
174098 1750.99 175005 174425 174089 298072 174356 206072 T363J9 
,53030 154053 153083 1S24£Z 1H5.19 1784.11 1445^5 1764.l1 G1J2 


Nos 11 Nov 10 do* 8 tor 0 Nos 7 


— 1094 — 
rtgfi IQ" 


fkgfr Uwr 


FT-SE Bsdnck 100 
FT-SE Eoraback 200 
FT Ord&By 
FT GM Secnaes 
FT Ffcad Surest 
FT Seed lines 
Predecessor Grid Itines 


1341.71 134052 1345.14 13ZA29 1322£6 
139052 140088 K08J6 1384J2 1386.99 
3800 2384.1 2J708 23405 23402 

91.03 91.45 91.39 9089 91 £4 

107.92 107.94 107® 107£9 10801 

2091.65 2094.40 2099^2(1283211162 
2501 2570 2635 2580 264 9 


1540.19 1286.48 154019 
1607.10 133596 1607.10 
27116 2255 5 77115 
1(J7 JM 9954 127.40 
13387 10650 13187 
2367,4 J7K.(I5?2K74B 
2833 185.0 734.7 


900.45 

93062 

494 

49.18 

5053 

922)6 

475 



FT GOLDs MINES INDEX 


% d« % ot 

No* Awe Nov KklCap GoM GnastBv 

11 31712/93 18 Stss Writs yield % 


Belgian Ranc 

412 

■* H 

42 

-4H 

5 - 

4% 

5% 

-53a 

SA 

■ Sit 

»A- 

Bit 

DanM Krone 

5*2 

- 5>4 

5% 

-51* 

8*8 

-5% 

6*8 

- 6*8 

7 - 

B% 

7*«- 

7*8 

D-Mark 

5 - 

4% 

4» 

- 4(2 

43 

-41! 

SA 

-5A 

5% ■ 

■51, 

511 - 

sa 

Diach Gulder 

6 - 

4\ 

5& 

- 4JI 

sft 

-5 

5% 

-SA 

5*8 

■ 5*4 

5% • 

5*8 

Frenrii Franc 

S*B 

-514 

SA 

-5ft 


-5A 

5*8 

- 5*2 

sh 

■53. 

8V 

6^4 

Portuguese Esc. 

8* 

-8lz 

9 - 

8% 

93. 

-9% 

10% 

-9% 

10*2 

-10 

10% ■ 

10% 

Spanish Peseta 

7*2 

-7A 

7H 

- 7>: 

7*8 

-71* 

7B 

•711 

8*b- 

■8*4 

9*8 

- B 

Staring 

*A 

-311 

5- 

4% 

sa 

-5ft 

8A 

-6 

5A- 

-6A 

73- 

7& 

Svrfss Fnsic 


-3% 

3A 

-a; 

3*8 

-3*2 

4 - 

3% 

4*8 

- 4 

4*2 - 

4*0 

Can. Dollar 

SA 

-4% 

5% 

-•B 

SA 

-SA 

sa 

■SA 

6% - 

■8*8 

7*8 

- 7 

US Dote 

4ii 


4j| 

-*.1 

8*8 

-5% 

Sil 

-S!i 

6*8 

- 6 

6% - 

6*8 

Baton Lka 

9 - 

rh 

8% 

-8% 

8*4 

- 8*8 

83 

•BA 

9- 

8% 

93- 

93 

Yen 

2% 

-2A 

2ft 

- 2% 

2*8 

-2ft 

2*8 

-2ft 

2*2- 

u 

2!1- 

2% 

Asian 59 ng 

2\ 

-2^» 

3ft 

-23 

3V 

-3% 

3«2 

-3*8 

33,- 

■3*8 

4*8 

-4 

Short an ratra ora col 

to tha 

US Dolor am 

Yon. 

terms. 

too dev> B iwrtc*. 





■ Ragteri todlcra 

Mica (IQ 
Aus&Waw (71 
Nodi America HI) 

Cqpjngrn. Dk. fimnctal Tlmta Unaed 1KM. 

Ftgisss m braAw stionr number at corryKirtss. Baas US Dolan. Boa Vetaes 100100 3VI2/92. 
PredeoHur Gold Mtaas Inttoc Nov 11 . 250.1; week's dtnga -11£ pons Yaw sg or 2410 


2097-85 

-8J 

209*40 SlJti 

10030 

237 

238730 178202 

3389.12 

+23 

337931 

17.43 

34.17 

438 

3711.87 230*45 

268837 

+0.9 

273336 

£66 

1110 

13S 

301339 217136 

161826 

-111 

t61£22 

2639 

52.73 

033 

203935 1468.11 


■ THREE MONTH EURODOLLAR 0MM) Sim points erf 100% 


LONDON RECENT ISSUES: EQUITIES 

Issue And MU. Close 

price paid cap 1984 price 

p up (Em.) Irigh Low Stock p +/- 



Open 

Sett price 

Change 

High 

Low 

Ebl vol 

Open InL 

Dec 

B£S4 

9334 

- 

93.95 

0303 

173^35 

410,720 

Mre 

33.44 

83.43 

-0.01 

33.45 

9342 

233,845 

423.061 

Jun 

92.94 

92.93 

-002 

0235 

92.92 

131 £01 

307,019 

■ US TREASURY MU. FUTURES <|MM) Simper 10096 



Dec 

9433 

94.54 


94.54 

9432 

1£73 

16.887 

Mar 

- 

3336 

-0.01 

9*00 

9338 

180 

10074 

Jui 

- 

9330 

-0.02 

MW 

83.43 

155 

£883 


Not Div. Ons P/E 
dhr. cov. yW net 


M Cpen mterost Bgi. me lor previous day 


- F.P. 

- F.P. 

- F.P. 

- FP. 
100 F.P. 

- F.P. 

- FP. 
280 F.P. 

63 F.P. 

- FP. 
115 F.P. 

- FP. 

- FP. 

- FP. 

- FP. 


082 

17A 

2.16 

112 

mo 

110 

47.4 

30.3 
12.1 
62.1 

35.4 
T.9f 
210 
2.70 
29.7 


^2 4 

88 70 

63 54 

187 180 
93 85^2 
47 39 


82 65 

287 280 
68 65 

155 IDS 
126 114 

35 23 

62 
30 
99 


APTA Wrrrfs. 
Abtrust Latin Am 
Do Warrants 
^■Adare Prmg 
BZW Commortdas 
Da Whs 
■JCaOuna 
Church* China 
Ennwrei 
Fttranic CTek 
Gamas Wor ksh op 
Group Dv Cap Wts 
56 Hantaros Sm Aslan 
27 Do Warrants 
90 INVESCO Korea C 


6 

87 -1 


188 


265 
66 
148 
114 
23 
56 
27 
99 +1 


RIGHTS OFFERS 

Issue Amount Latest 



026% 

£1 

1 A 

109 

price 

paid 

Heron. 

-1 

- 

- 

- 

- 

P 

up 

rfrrtn 

-1 

- 

- 

- 

- 

20 

m 

9712 


RN9SB 

22 

42 

130 

310 

M 

20712 


RN071 

53 

1 A 

£2 




-2 

RN0.75 

2£ 

QjB 

498 




-1 

fW4i 

22 

£0 

108 

5 

M 

15711 


1004 


H0ft_ 


Low Stock 


Closing *or- 
P* tea 

P 


4*2pm 

41pm 


_1pm BuSere 


Kenwood AppL 

28711 3 1 2pm 2 hpm Martin Ind 

18pm Mabhow CMt 
%ptti Novo 
1 2pm jUnion Square 


50pm 

%pm 

2«2pm 


1pm 

25pm -1 

3pm 

18pm 

%pm 

hpm 


180 

FP. 

166.0 

223 

205 Irish Permanent 

218 

-1 uN98 

2.9 

£6 

79 

_ 

FP. 

50.7 

493 

476 Protte Inc Art. 

489 

- 

- 

- 

— 

135 

FP. 

5£3 

149 

138 Servisair 

145 

RN38 

18 

38 

238 

115 

FP. 

219.0 

125 

117 7GL 

123 

-1 WN3£ 

22 

£8 

17.7 

170 

FP. 

200 

173 

163 Tele-doe Cell 

170 

RN5^4 

22 

49 

118 

- 

FP. 

£01 

62 

57 WMchwcb 

00 

RN185 

£0 

28 

128 



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FT CONFERENCES 

NINTH EUROPEAN PETROLEUM AND GAS CONFERENCE 
Amsterdam, 15 A 16 Novereber 19*4 

This year's meeting, limed to cotoddr with Ac PctroTcch 94 Exfribitioo, will focus on 
European oil refining and the market to the year 2000, considering current and future 
European capacity, product trends, new refinery investment and environmental issue*. 
Speakers tadude: Toqjflrtro Trinjgachi. fanenmiODal Energy Affstcyr. Phil Trimmez, BP 
CHI international: Mohammed Saleh Shaikh Ali. The Bah ram National Oil Company; 
Mohamcd Yousef, Trimoil Italia SpA; Dr Leonard MagriU. Texaco United: Oilfrcrt 
Portal. EURO P1A; Chris Baxter, The Ouse Manhattan Bank NA; Terry Davies, Purvin 
A Geitz Inc, and Jaan-Piena Rnynicr. Boro pean Anlotaob Oa Matinfarnncw Assodanon. 
THE PETROCHEMICAL INDUSTRY - PROSPECTS FOR THE M1D-I99lla AND 
BEYOND 

Urarinu, 21& 22 November 1994 

Ike sixth FT petrochemicals conference, arranged in aamcidion with O irauca f Manas, 
brings together a most anthoriuiive panel of speakers to disensa global prospects fix this 
key industrial sector. Speakers include: Boh Wilson, Exxon C Vimr al Europe Inc; Jnha 
Rarusntat. Borealis Holding AJ& HE Mr Ahmad Rahgazar, National Petrochemical 
Company and Deputy Pctroteuni Mfaiislci. (ran: M ohamma d AMSKaihiri. SABIC Enn^e 
Ltd; Nyun Trie Em. Ynkoog Ltd; Bryan Sandereon, BP Chemicals; James FItgg. Amoco 
Corpora B'cvi, Andrew BUder, Dow Europe and Mrchad Bcooea, Arthur D Link. 

DOING BUSINESS WITH SPAIN 
Madrid, 23 & 24 November 1994 

The FTs *94 confe rence , to be a r ran g ed with Expmrriria and Aoualidad EconOmica, will 
lake as its theme 'Spain Competing in Europe*, focusing an economic recovery, 
competirivity and IBierriising markets. Speakers md nde: D. Nereis Sena i Sara. Spa n i sh 
Vree-ftrsadeni; D. Pedro Soflxs Mira. Spanish Mmiricr of Economy A Finance; D. Joat 
Mala Azuar, Parrido Popular; D. Lais Angel Rojo Duqnc, Banco da Espana; D. Josrf 
Antonio Grinte Martinez, Spanish Maustcr of Labour & Social Security; D. Miqud Roca 
JnnyenL Ccwvoghncia I Um6 (CiUX Ol Alberto Rncanc Garefa-Andndc, Centtmfam; D. 
TeoQo del Paso, BT Triecomnmcackiaes SA; Mr Bernard Dunxm, Saua^Louls Group 
SA; PraCessor Pedro Nueeo Irriesu. IESE 
fTNANCIAL StKPORTDVC CV THE LTK 
Loadao. 28 November 1994 

Thh. year’s oafeRace will provide nwvnKsI guid a n c e Co* preparers and osen of accounts 
on interpreting the of existing and e mergin g A5B semdards. Issues to be 

covered wflJ indudr A camming Cor off-balance sheet finance; merger and aapushioa 
accounting; valuing intangibles and btatufc; accounting Cor derivatives. Speakers radnd^ 
Sir Sydney Lrpwoab DC Hiuactaf Reporting Coond). M r Chris SwbKom. BDO Stay 
Hayward; Mr Nigel V Turnbull, The Rank Organisation pic; Mr John H KeUas, KPMG 
Peal Muwkk Mr David H Cairns. Intenational Accounting Standards Com m ittee; Mist 
Mary Keegan. Price Waterborne in Europe; Mr Peier A Kolgur. Coopers <fc Lyfarend; Mr 
MSdiael Biridn, buerirrand Group pic; Mr Michael RenstaU. Financial Repotting Review 
Panel: Mr Ken Wild, Tondie Ross A do. 

WORLD TELECOMMUNICATIONS 
London, 6 A 7 December 1994 

Treads rinmg i" C the «hape of the telecomxmmicarimw in du s tr y, inri rating imemUonal 
aiihnr^« ibe eonstriKSkm of ' superhighways’ and the regulation of competition will be 
addicscd by Dr Martin Bangemann, European Cbmmistioii; Dr Michael Netson, The US 
Office of Science and Technology Policy; Mr Don Craickshaak, Office of 
Teleratninuiitealions (OFTELp, Mr Ronald T Lx May. Sprint Long Distance Division; Sir 
lam VaBanoe. BT. 

THE POLISH HIGHWAY PROGRAMME - OPPORTUNITIES FOR PRIVATE 
FINANCE AND INVESTMENT 
Warsaw, 12 & 13 December 1994 

This Financial Time* cooferenoa. arranged in association with The Institut ion of Civil 
Engineers (ICE), will mark the commence in eel of (he forthcom in g S8bn Highway 
Construction Programme with this high-level forum to explore the bey challenges - 
fmanriat , technical, managerial and operational - in mounting major infrastructure ptq ) ecta 
In Maid. Speakers include; Dr BognsUw Utwraddd, Potr* Mi n i ste r of Transport and 
Maritime Economy; Mr Andrzej Paulas and Mr Mhoslaw Gretik, Agency for Motorway 
Construction; Mr Mcciej Olex-Szcryiawski, Schroder Polska; Dr Manfred Knoll, 
Deutsche R«t AO; Mr Walter Cemoia, European Inveamenl Bank; Mr A Kent RUTcy, 
BectoeJ CM1 Company; Mr Henry Lkzfca, Bovis Pataka; Mr Stephen Hoffman, Arthur 
Andersen Poland; Ml Darinsz Slotwinsiti. DromeK Mr Olivier Bounin. Btniygncs. 
INTERCONNECTION - THE EVOLVING UK PROGRAMME AND ITS 
INTERNATIONAL CONTEXT 
Leaden, 8 February 1995 

Senior speakers from OFTEL. led by Mr Don Onictohank its Director General, will took 
si ifre key issues of the UK’s ime reonn eciioo programme. Diis joint conference will abo 
address inienconneciion and compoirion In inlcmational leleconunmtications, with 
presen lai ions from the US Federal Communications Commission, ihe European 
Commission’s Tctecommunlcations Directorate and the Swedish National Post and 
Telecom Agency. 

BIOTECHNOLOGY - A REVOLUTION IN THE MAKING? 

London 13 & M December I9W 

This high-level meeting will review current developments In biotechnology and assess 
future trends; consider regttiauvy issues and discuss Ibe challenges of raising Ibe finance 
needed to cap loti fully the sector's potential Speakers will indwk; Ceil Feldfaeum, 
Biotechnology Indmtiy Organization; Professor Dr JBrgen Drews, Hoffmann- La Roche 
Inc; professor Eros-GthUcr A (ling. Roussel Udat Mr Strachan lleppcfl CO, European 
Methanes Evaluation Agency; Dr Alan G Walton. Oxfonf BuSdcace Phnnera; Dr John 
Keller, Smith Kline Bcedum PharmaceulicalB and Took Yong Star, Singapore Bio- 
Iruawaiioos Re Ltd. 

VENTURE FORUM EUROF£ *94 
Loudon 1 & Z December 1994 

Arranged jointly by Ibe Finan c i a l Times and Venture Economies (bn aiunal meeting 
brings together recognised atpem firan Europe and North America » dtaense key Janee 
facing the industry; identify the inveamenl strategies and asses how institutional 
invesBxs now view venture capbal es an asset dass. 

All enquiries should be addressed tor Financial Times Conf ere n ces, P O Bos 3651, 

London 5W128PH.UK. Telephone 081-673 9000, Fac 081-673 1335. 


r 




























































































































28 


FINANCIAL TIMES MONDAY NOVEMBER 141994: 


LONDON SHARE SERVICE 


BANKS 

im to to om dands Lot 

u,.. „ PiteechUfl# net cm. paW ri 

AWAnron 4_ £22)1 12 061* ASgpIta 793 

. 1IB 1.1 02Bc 07 JnbJ* 012 

39 i. 

Awbttffitt 


CHEMICALS 


ELECTROMC & ELECTRICAL EQPT - Cent EXTRACTIVE INDUSTRIES > Cont 


HEALTH CARE- Coirt. 


Notes Pncs i 

-C 



BBSrJb. 
ssb— ~ ss 
SStad^ffl 

Demctew □eSrtj 

gpbtasenio □ aK 

RwteRi un ffiiz 

0*cC*Pf. n 

_FpcC»H... ta 


*7*% Dh to fflWWd 3 LjW ffly 

Ynas ns cm. raw « Jhf 

4 3 02CW 11 Mar 5-93 - Gff »-* 

-UU3ft% 19 Dm May 5*93 - cawe r 

-51 2JS 2-5 AagFCO 17 15B1 - - fa- 

200 2.1 9m AH «7 1564 H*eW-ta*65 - - MWJg 

130&M - Air 533 - MCntf&na — 3N^ 12* -1.8 S9 

0.1 2U 1.0 NbAug 66 1080 JehwaiHHS -V\f 

-17 1021 T 5 Feb Aug 47 T9S6 KWWi . - -T+pC 

03M ZXIMeOcJa 13 - Barer DM J_Z 2M0£ -11022* - Hr 8ffl - IWwW 

-1.40147% 31 JuJul 163 1360 frent tO 111* -26 40 - May Nm 1110 1M tode W . 

12 111 33 Jd Dec 17.10 1742 MtftMB „.-ftC 230 -14 73 UlbyNs* 119 1827 LPAhtfc - . 

- — .... - w - - - IVD1 2043 un»PimBi«ns - • JJ 

1010 20E3 MIL tab..—. -it* 

123 3376 Magram Pmmr — «J 

-25 018% 19 torn Dm 9*93 '- I ft'Jt -.: .I.. 17 - - - 3286 Memur-a** . -.MU 

- May 5*93 -OutaUe ND 461 -1.7 148 MJenAg 28 2250 


2 

- ADA 90 

- MotH G 

ANed Conoids WC 13 

tnttrlnd Jt 780 

BASF DM £. tt2ft 

aCC «Z 704 

BTP. $JC 


I* Ml JJ jam W in I1*C jiiaii M ... — . , ■!«_ Ml -N>.» lasqim 

_ . -fcjBmiT.io CanteUjeteS. -* W - - - ittl 

ft% - Hof Mm 17.10 1689 CaaOTniW 4*C 182* 799 05 DM** UK 

3-1 1636 1.9 OctMly 151 1754 OSOsiSn- « 51 -56 27 Q8 OdApr 12! 


«rk% to Wfc towenos lust Cit, 

fWR Pnee di ms «jl cm raid * ne 

“ 263 -12 1032 1 7 Mar Oct IS r 2575 tap Am Gold R 

107 24 - AprAlM '? ■ 2868 Amgd . 

144 -20 60 I 7 May tar 129 2041 Angicvul A 

-AbJjOcJ* 193 - SounnEqin AS 

* MsrOri 3 <0 2248 Amami 

2 1 AIM - - AyffWjmMS . 

2 3 Feb Aug Id.- IB82 BavycM< toil 

0.8 Sep Per '6 3063 tar- A 

- May Sen 1 1 - ii07 teicm M*mg H)o 

14 02 F* Aug -1 3230 tow** 

U> 6 AprNm JI 10 1740 Boulder tod A 

<3 38 May Mm '0 *0 4891 Bracnen 4 

- - - - 4591 Butehfl 

41 25 Apr Oct IS8 3338 BurwteAS 

J91 3374 Bum 


KTe*» On to toetetes LOT 
Notes Pdcecirnge net can odd * 

,t EB7[i -3 “01525c MJunDec 
«•“ 23 Ij - - - 

E19,’„aj QT 23c 3 0 Apr Ng* 24. to 


a 


WTlrtt Dtv Dtr total* LOT Otj 
H£as Rice dYnga net cm. pOT d 


"+• mm ms niHi ufrra nt iw. un « mb _ ___ ’a • _ _ 

16.5 1809 SmaiNOTL HCM4IOT (5 &M IJJWDee 110 4043 B ewagEw B **8-3*3 life -1 _ 

fS 3629 Spenieya i- J __ - - - - W i™. — JS H *, M J 


MVESTaffiHT TRUSTS -Cent V:...':>r 

Wk« Oh DtfdmJi IK-., tat GBy 
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252 -S3 
34 


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- ItaAiig 117 2671 Quetta.--— ^ __ ,48 UlftiyNm 24ig 23EB ^ ^ r^JJ,; 29 “ 


- MJtU 80 2570 EngotodS— 8i»J -03 044c -MrJeSaOe T93 - WCY. 

- OTJBB 66 1488 EurepetnODM—MQ 85 -1.5 1.13 14 MAn 66 9172 MM<t« 


{NQtW -1.7 245 2.4 NnvJui 

WflC(7Ipffld— flO 721 a) -10 240 24 Hot J m 


19 2796 Hdson 4 

19 2778 IfcedrtDK. 


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HbTet&BkY □ 0656 -68 010% 124 Jn Die 12*92 - mapec ID 206 -42 30 

MbotTat&BkY D 681 -6.9 017* 15 JunDec 12^2 - Kahn *pc 144<i 03 44 

NdAUHAS 1 488 1.4 QS8c 1.7 MJaa 2IJ - lank. l+tc 71 IW 27 210 

tewes .tic 616 I.a 184 24 0ei May 00 3453 HIM _ *EJ 80 -12 03 

BtomeFft 2211* -I40iz» A nay 290 - Mmfera M3 

RgiBhSdMiand.itlt^ *a -t <u 19 MM 165 3874 McLaodltaami N3 

SatmeY D Eft 00 017* 30 Dec Jun 1252 - MetTHBCtMs 


1.3 Win 
- Apr 433 
27 Octlby 


384 


119 2886 PacnSystS i 78M 

4'33 - Peek HP 8SM 

US 2810 fWwft. BOjS 

00 Oct Apt 68 2967 dlO 

1.5 Nor SI *» W? N 354 

24 OctMey 229 3872 A Jt 

i.7lfe£H0* 3.J0 3136 Ptamec — 

180 20 Km 


739 -43 020* $ Qec Jon 1792 3487 Camf Pianc _ 

Bh -9018* 4.4 AgaOcl - 3024 Otfte . . 

23 . . 05 A Aug Her KT73 $125 Oca) km 

.. 08‘jc OSJanOeciriO 3584 Wnaus . 

12 14 11 JmJlA 3n0 3622 CawMuiaiR 

-4.7 05% 120 tar 4*90 3663 DomusAS 

5L* - JwiDec 16.5 30S DeBeenLSOLisn 


29 8 3250 Prime- - . 
199 3278 PlOTmWc — fH 


107 -IB &1 10 » 200 3323 7>e DC Cv Pt__ — i 1_ 


&m*aY □ £12 

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73/SpcPrf 85>> 

SumaemoY .D £11 A 

StmunmoTatY C Tift 

TSB nc 2271> 

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financial times 



Monday November k 1994 


29 


WVESTME NT TRUSTS - Coni. 




1* ■_ 


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BOo ApJyOcJa 109 4439 

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La* Oty 
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3 J JdDee 17 Hi 3798 Ft.r . . 

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14 JunNn) 367 1 SO 0 Tvj.n.nd 

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2.7 07 S 7 1 AprOd 39 S 3256 UtfkviFi 
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a MorOd IS 7 3355 y.arjim 

- Jan Jut 20 6 2358 nroiorhiiRNi 
ll' 0 '< 2491 ruMyile 

^ Apr Dec 7 11 5 J 13 

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02 1 6 May Me* 24.10 1502 
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SX 1.7 Jul Dec 24.10 1584 
501 06 1 X 1 24 Sep Apr IS 8 1550 

95 -nl &! 0.5 JanJid 66 1688 
'.3 Jid Jaa 165 1733 
¥ Jot Jim 17.10 1790 

- Jul ITS! are 

$ Jan May 11.4 1050 
1 1 May Oct 369 1917 

- - - pffH 

74 Aup Apr 18.7 5188 

- Jun ADI 20*8 

- - 4 M 1 3120 

10 - - 4629 

2 f JDuJkd 199 2882 

1 3 May Dec 7.11 2178 

- - - 3*91 4253 

14 X 13.5 May Nov 2&9 5305 
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IX 3.4 Dec Jid 31.10 2353 

- - 2381 

! I Fad Aug 4.7 4768 

J Jan May 1 L 9 2661 
Fob Sep 8.8 2618 
- 6*33 2625 

1 * Mar Aug 4 7 2632 
$ May Itov 26.9 2681 
41 Nov Apr 199 2801 
- - 3011 2888 

1 1 JulD« 24 tO 2868 
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ox ox Apr oci ae 290 a 
3 X Jan May 14 J 2610 
- - 9*93 1591 

4 X =5 AprOd 228 3018 

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17 12 X 5 23 Jid Dec 3410 3125 

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- May Jan IM 3688 
1 7 FeU Aug OX 77 B 8 


35 JanOd 
- Jul Mar 


GUIDE TO LONDON SHARE SERVICE 

Prices tar he London Share Service deiiared 6 y EdMUnaocW, a 
member of me Fhandal Ifinra 0 >Ot*l 

Company cUtoMcamm are baaed on mose uteri tor me FT -SE AcLarke 
snare hates 

Closing arid-prices are drem Prices and net Addenda we In pence imfcaa 
ocherwise irvflcawL 

rimae stocks are denam inaw h ctararafea other mar doing, tots ■ 
hdicated trior die name. 

Dividend oners ae based on ■irrantmum* dtstnbidlDne 86 s compares gross 
Addend ensa n proflr drer uarion. exchSnajwaiJtoiaJ prafioflossw 
tod tnduang esnmaM extent at orivtsfl* ACT. Mava CapdAsadons ere 
published oo Tuesdays-Saniruys exepi for fiweatmefl Trusts and Brtdsh 
Funds. 

U htHcales Bw rood adhely haded Etrxfti Ties Includes UK Moore 
where nansxdom and prices ore prdSahed conUnumelv Omigh me 
Shell BateriQB AumaM OuaUton swan (SOQHniimu* 
reortor mrough Iha SFAO hra narioml ayetwn. 
t Troeryn anco Increased ry rearmed 
t hLertn shea raduced. tossed or dataned 
* Bguros nr report awaited 

¥ Rule 2 -ltodv) Overoas tmarporated companfea flsal a\ an approved 
wetrangu 

A Free anrulAntHlm report jraflatoe. see datads betotv 

iJSM-, not fiawi on Smjr Exchange and company nut subjected b 
came degree id regulation as Wad secunfles. 

T| ftrie 42 ft) UK 5 IrMi hanpuraJed novltoted corrawnws 
6 Price a nma 18 sutnenskn 

U iredcaKd Artdend alter pending scrip sndbr righo Ba*. rover retet* 
» BrovitoB iVvOcnd or lomasl 
4 Merger tdd w irwganteston in prngraas 
& Forecast dhddent ewe) based on «samhgs updated 0/ taut norm 
statemurt. 

A UnrSflidateri coripcrivs hveainem sctBine. 

a Annualised ritiUand z Dnridend hetudn a offietd ecdsutos hr 

0 F®sas based Ml speed tayrnsne Covet 1993 - 94 . 

pruawctu 5 or Mitts does not apply to N Figures based on OH 

ofndfli esumates arena I pavment HeaAna Earwigs' 

events. F OMend basal on P Figures to* on 

1 Rai yield. BrtKpKEn or other praspedus or ah 

g Assumed diyideniL tdfffi estmatea lor omtfieSmatts lor 

n Assumed dividend I 994 B 5 . 1984 . 

mhmniMwiim after pendtogi^iantv B ft^at annualised 

previous bu. _ orja^vta isnis dMdoid. enwr based 


Nu 


7 X 

6.6 

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4.3 

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14 J 


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57 -17 
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487 b 
115 
47 >0 
120 


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65 3020 
3*90 3950 
.1 Jan Aug 107 S 032 
3 X 5 14 May Ho* 17 ID 4782 
35 4 6 Jun Dec 711 4011 
I J Mo* May 17 10 4030 
25 Aug Feb 20 6 37 G 8 
1.7 JOT Dm 22 V 4118 
15 May lie 4129 
1 9 Dec Jun (770 4258 
- - 53 ! 4265 

4 Jul Dec 24.10 0322 


a 3817 a FUgrns Issue pending H DnWend based on 


05 


Sj 42 
3.7 
IX 
1.0 
1 Q 014 % 


q Ewmigs oacad on 
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a Dividend oa*xt» a 


or other 

esttnataslor 
1993 

K Omdand based on 
or other 
eotoMMs for 


on Drospediia or oBiar 
olfbN rarimaten 

T Figures assumed. 
WPm forosa tarns. 

Z DWtland tooto data. 


36 


t IntficJWf dWdard: 

CWareefcS» 
prevwue Arldend „ 
u Fmtaat or esftnaud L Estimated anmofcro AfafamlMlanx 
arnuaksed dMdBnd Aridenri. caver based * ex Aridenri: 

rate, com based on on bust annual a ex artp issue; 

SET** S’Sfcbasedw. SS! ' 


I* i 2 K ?Sif r SS? 2 ne » ailjeci to ACT prospedua or ettor rdf w cipdal totuftti 


37 -75 1 X 5 2.7 May 28 3 4406 


. vtfj 104 re -10 2 X 7 22 Jul No* 3 Id 4013 


fa 


8 ! . _ IX 19 FebOd lb. 8 4343 


2 J Jan Jul 
22 Jot JU 


01 X 5 4 5 OOApr 


tH 258 -tl -.4 ftZ 3 5 Jut Dec 3 i 10 4860 


Oty 


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S 4 3 B 2 S 


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Waco.. . . . i+NJ 

fipCvPf- 

_ ’.vadrinpiMi is _ Aid 
_ witmaugns- ._tnZ 
Wynleham Press A ft I 


mm PROPERTY 


E 30 U 

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ir May 

5 - 9 J 

1437 

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-29 

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238 

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04 

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1 7 

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- - 4\0 2418 

• 43 V 9 ''i'ii! ' i. 7 H> 

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2 u MarNo* 10 id 27*0 

Doe ll 10 4 JM TRANSPORT 
17 Jun Hot 3.10 2810 
12 Ok 3.10 J 684 

•Sf«: 8 M -rr 255 2 3 Jan Jut 24 111 2932 to l £5 

NZ 467 d 20 14.9 2 3 Jul Mm 19 9 4536 Ltnoan - fa 

fa 158 1.0 33 Apr 4 1 W 97 AI rilppon AJr 

nlJ 330 . 4 X P 4 May MOV 269 3164 ^rolled Dr.litm ..Aim- 
'd/ 105 n -1 u 05 3 J Jun Dec 24 10 3 I 7 S Asm BrPgnj. Iintft. 

- Nm May 12 9 3173 bAA Wl_ 

20 FehOd 6.0 2824 E-»J.JeJllrac- .. ai_ 

17 MayOd 59 3274 Berprswlffa- - .... 

24 Jan Aug 60 J 2 JI BntnhAmvays. ...TM' . 3 M'i 
J 4 Apr Oct 19 9 3339 C-vpObPCCv 
. ... 30 Jim Dac 31 10 1424 Giway Pk HkS 

1.4 17 S 2 4 Jul Jan 16 5 M 99 Unrti'hiHi 

-i|) 5 X 2 1 0 May Oft iQJ - 0 « • 

17 - - - fl'jl 3556 Oar.rexigrouo .. 

-JU 01X0 I ■’ FeoSep «v« 3566 FuirJwvrrfDfi 

or - 1:01 3673 ft.vinnto i«W 


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7 X 

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10 
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- 3012 V, 284 

Jun Ok 

S 4 

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3 £. 016 X 13 

Oct 

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DM Oh 

Ohndemfa Lut 

City 

Price ilfnas 

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P»V 

* 

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63 « 

-1 6 

35 <p 

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31 10 

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WS ^ 

Jim 

- 

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Apr Nov 

XI 

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-01 030 % 23 

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2iH 

5304 


nil stnke Is avaBatUo to oreqiKfes whose starts are mgutety 
haded In Hie UnHod Mhijrtim^ toajte year ter tacb 


FT Share Service 

The lotto wing changes have oeen made to the FT Share 
Inlormabofi Swvlce: Additions: Honda Motor (Eng 
Veldes) and Artesian Eats. (Prop) Deletion 9 : Davotiport 
Vernon (Oistrbs). Tomklneons BWpc Pf. (Diva Kids). Data 
Sect (Elm 8 Bet Eqpt), Beverley (Eng). 


fa 


tN 
N ' 


91 

250 

70 

02 

18 b 


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2 5 Sep Apr 25 7 W 21 FtliiV'Jl . -N 
59 ? 3633 fyrin fvns ...tN. 

IS JUlDK IT I'.i 3 KU i-Ar - 5 _ 

1 5 Apr Nov •r - )1 5U7 ‘iHlfcuS.. 

I'.I Jul >;•; 335a I'.o-Vrad SM«_. 

iflOcIMSey 299 H 75 fioodo Piiriam . fan . 
T & Dec Jul 1 / fi 3970 Irish rnntmeiirf AtN 
- - 9 'll J 702 luMifi-im . . Aril 

iri 12 yjjfl iviu-j ..Ai AIN 7 . 

(2 AprOd J 4047 '.VII OfijsFib I 

>J«Mljc 5 eDe 1 !'I 5 UIJ H.v.iu NiCF AS 


B U ] 
50 


. jtmoec 31 10 1423 FT Free Annual Reports Service 

- You can obLam tore current annualrinleflm report pf any 
^ company armOMtad w«h » . Please quota (ha code 
"ft FT 2732 . Ruig 081-770 0770 (open 24 hOLffB including 
iftgv una 3350 weehends) or Fax 081-770 3822 . If calHng from outside 
4*93 5093 Trie UK, nng +44 81 770 0770 or la* +44 81 770 3822 . 

1891 Ropons will be seni the next woridng day. subject to 

22.8 5304 oval lab tlty. 

H Si ^ Vi fT Cityline 

48 33 JunNn 199 mi For up- 10 -ihe- second share prices ca 8 FT Cdyflna on 

- - - - 4597 0336 43 or 0891 43 (oBowod by the tour-dgft aide fisted 

' MOO after ihe share puce. Cato charped ai 39 p per nrinut* 


440 

e 2 P a 

231 

■GO 

188 

446 

139 


16 7.7 

-SQS 1 X 0 
13 


10 HwMay ita choap raleaW49pw mlnt,le 21 ^ retw" Oftws. 

-MrJeM* 129 2662 


38 UFA Jun 58 4133 An iniemairQrtal Gxrvlca to available (w caDars outatde the 
4.0 14 far Nov -4130 UK, annual uibsariptnn £250 stg. 


-5 BX ?0 Feb Sap 

IJi 07 Hi 


1.6 2722 
S 0 Mar Ho* 129 2224 
022% 16 Bay Oci » 3 2953 

7 9 185 - 0«MJY S 9 3017 

83 -i 5 OOftc 5.0JaMyAri)C 129 3206 
328b -1.0 033c I : Apr Apr J'JJ 


CaB 071-873 4378 {+44 71 873 4378, International) for 
more Information on FT Cityline. 




30 


■/ pm dose November if 


MB* 

m> uwsu* 

17% 12% MR 


ns. « 9b 
Oh % E 100s Higk 
Q.X 3.9 31 147 12% 


IB 12% ALlatsA aiB 1.0 40 120 
79% 57% »*x UK1W 


72% 48% AM 
5 3%*K 
56% 38% ASA 
32% 25% AML 
15% 11% Atm FT 
23% 17% ABM tad 
18 u % Acptnceh 


31 ZTACEUd 0.44 10 
12% g%ACM0«h* 1JB1T.B 
10% 6%ACM&0»» 0WT1.2 
10% 6%ACM6*4Spx 09514.2 
12 7% MM GW »x 1.09139 
11% 7% ACM Manx 1.0814.4 
9% SAOIIteMdf a?? 89 


15% 8 $ AcHWOm a44 3.7 14 


13% 6% AtmsBflet 

28% ZJtamfe) UbO ZZ 13 at Z7$ 27*2 27*2 -% 

134* Mi Aeon 0.x 37 2 175 9% 9% 9% 

18% 11%Acuaan 129 385 17 16% 18% +% 

18% 16% taiarc Expr 008 33 0 204 17% 17 17% f% 

64 46% Ad Hem 3.00 55 18 54% 54 84% -$ 

31$ 16$AB»Mc 10012.2 10 8259 25 24% 24*2 -% 

8% 5 Attest Bp 0 18 00 8 4! 5% 5% 5% 

20 ISAdvoInc 0 10 06120 M3 18% 18% 18% -% 

04 49% Aajon ADR 147 24 13 41 83% 61% 82% 

85% 44 Aatrat. 278 59 8 027 47 46% 46% 

36% 25% Aloe 046 13 14 784 34% 34% 34% ■% 

22% 16% Almsn i 088 51 12 2840 17% 17 1?% -% 

4 1% Mem tac 1 4 1% 1% 1% *% 

90% 38% fltTC 598 21 25 1898 46% 48 46% -1 

39% lSAWnaRt* 0.30 1.5 11 988 19% 19% 19% ♦% 


65% 44 AaetaL 

36% 25% Ala: 

22% 16% Mamou 
4 i%Ataenhc 
90% Aef»rc 

39% lSAUmFftl U.JU 1.5 11 WB 194 19 *2 194 *% 

29% 19% Amps he 45 706 27% 3% 25% -1% 

17 14% Atom 184 119 11 28 15% 15% 15% ■% 

90% 21%AtrTen 4837 28% W 28% -% 

18% 13%AtaSWM 020 12 24 1 757 16%. 16% 18% -% 

21% 16%A»>an»W ax 20 30 12£ 78 17% 17% -% 

17% 13% Wtaral 0.X 1.4 673 14% 14% 14% ■% 

26% 19%AKuBx 028 1 1 17 X 25% 25% 25*4 -% 

24% 17$ AKufrr A * OX 1£ 17 380 24% 23% 23% -% 

30$ 25% Amot * 0 44 1 5 24 1848 30% 28% 30% 4% 

28% 19$AblAI aX 1 2 125 4269 24% 24% 24% 

85*2 40% AfcuSl 13X1 1 7 40 224 X S7% 57% -% 

30% 23‘z AtaBrowi 070 2 6 4 771 »% 26% 26% ■% 

23% 14 Atari! 0.10 05151 SS 19% 10% 19% -% 

24% 1 7 AJegn bid 0.48 2 4 18 1025 10% 19% 19% +% 

26% 19% AW 164 8 0 10 384 20% 20% 20% 

25% 13% Alien Can 016 ft? 19 218 23% 23% 22% -% 

26 MAfcrpm t 044 1.8 17 SOI 27% 28% 27% 4% 

4% Alton 1 35 % JJ % 

27% 17%MnraCw 1 64 8 5 20 >72 19% 19% 19% -% 

10% g Alton a 018 18 S3 9% 9% 9% 

27% 21% AU Man 0.90 3 8 14 8 24% 24 24 ■% 

40%33%Aid9g Q 67 20 7 3940 33% 33% 33% -% 

11% 8% Atater 084 afl 63 8% 88% 8% 

29% 24 Ana) Op ax 34 20 1808 271 g 27% 27% 

7% 4% ABS3SB 75 IZ7 6% 8% 6% 

X 21% AXrax 14 99? 27% 26% 27% *% 

90% 64% Alena* 1.50 2.0476 4410 82 % 80% 81 

X% 17 Aba Cp A 33 SIX 16$ 18 18% -% 

11% 7 AraGauInc * 0X135 252 7% (17 7% *% 

8% 6% Am Freds 0 25 14 M 12 7% 7% 7% 

8% 6% AnsnGn 006 1.2 12 801 7 6% 8% -% 

25% 19% Amcad ha 0 52 2.7 13 163 19$ d19% 19% -% 

52% 44 AnWeHj 0 M 1 J 83 1856 47% 48% 47$ +1% 

9$ 8$ Am Ad| R i a24 28 31 9% 9% 9% 

31 20% Am Bams* 010 a4 31 3158 23% 23% 23% -% 

37% 29% Amfimd « 200 60 10 1050 33% 33% 33% -% 


24% 17% AlCuftrl 
30$ 25% Atom » 
28% 19% AtoiAl 
65% 49% AfcuSl 


23% -% 

30*4 ♦% 


30% 23'z Atadfrown 0 70 26 4 771 

23% 14 Atari! aiO 05151 X 

24% 17 AOa^ lid 0.48 24 18 1025 

26% 19% AW 164 8 0 10 384 


25% 13% Allen Can 
78 20 Alary®! < 

4% .’.Alton 
27% 17% Ainu Cap 
10% 9 Alton S 

27% 21% Whan 
40% 23%«d9g 
11 % 8 % Atom 
29% M Ana) Op 
7% 4%ABH3SB 
X 21% Una 
90*4 64% Alcoa x 
30% 17«zaCpA 


37% 29% AfnBmd • 200 6 0 10 1050 33% 33% 33% -% 

25% 16% Am Bus Pn) 080 39 13 101 21 20% 20% .% 

a B% Am Cap Inc OR 99 179 6% 6% 6% ♦% 

20% 16% Am Cap 80 154 98 28 131 16% 016 16 -% 

23% l&%AnCtoCU 108 5 7 0 59 19 18% 1B$ 

100% 42% AmCjai I BS 1.8 58 65*1ulOD$ 100% 100% 4% 
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) . 




FINANCIAL TIMES 


MONDAY NOVEMBER 14 1994 

NYSE COMPOSITE PRICES 


31 


NASDAQ NATIONAL MARKET 


4pmdo»Nomnbarii 


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r 







FINANCIAL TIMES MONDAY NOVEMBER 1.4 


FT GUIDE TOT HE WEEK 



MONDAY 

Review of Iraq sanctions 

The four-year-old sanctums against Iraq 
come under review at the United 
Nations, with pressure mounting from 
Russia, China, Turkey and other Secu- 
rity Council members to ease the oil 
embargo following Iraq’s formal recog- 
nition of Kuwait last week. The US and 
Britain have indicated they oppose tak- 
ing any such measures yeL 

Western European Union, the 

ftorig Hw g itefance arm of the European 
Union, meets in Noordwijk in the 
Netherlands, along with associated 
partners from central and eastern 
Europe. Delegates will approve a docu- 
ment setting out the bones of a com- 
mon European defence policy, covering 
ties with Nato, and co-operation on 
arms and operations. 

Channel Tunnel: Regular Eurostar 
passenger train services are due to 
start, finking London, Paris and Brus- 
sels. There will be two cross-channel 
| trains a day to garb destination. The 
three-hour journey to Paris (314 hours 
to Brussels) costs between £95 return 
for Journeys booked up to two weeks in ' 
advance and £195 for first class traveL 1 

The Nordic Council, representing 
Norway, Finland, Sweden, Denmark 
anri Iceland, begins its annual meeting | 
in Tromsoe, northern Norway (to Nov 
15). The gathering will be preoccupied 
with the outcome of Sunday's referen- | 
dum in Sweden on membership of the 
European Union. Whichever way the 
vote goes, Norway will be hard-pressed I 
to gain support for membership from 
its reluctant electorate in its referen- 
dum an November 2ft. 

Turkish trial: Akin Birdai, president 
of Turkey’s H uman Rights Association, 
goes before a state security court in 
Ankara, charged with infringing secu- 
rity laws. He is accused of advocating 
separatism and terrorism. If convicted, 
Birdai faces a 2 to 5 year jail sentence 
on each count 

The European Parliament begins a 
four-day plenary session in Strasbourg. 
Hi g hlights include a debate on the 
European Commission's plans for 
closer co-operation with the southern 
Mediterranean and Mercosur, the Latin 
America trade grouping. 

UK national lottery: 

^ Tickets go on 

sale nationwide 
Jr from 7am for 

Britain’s first 
state lottery 

** PHD predecessor 

jgElgfiBB folded igno- 

IhI Mm miniously in 

mmm 1826. The first 

draw will take 

November 19. 

FT Stnveys: Greece and French 
Finance and Investment 

Holidays: Indonesia, Jordan. 


TUESDAY 

Summit of Apec leaders 

i Bogor, Indonesia: informal summit of 
! APEC leaders: US President Bill Clin- 
■ ton and other leaders give news confer- 
ences later hi the day in Jakarta. After 
I the summit. Japan takes over from 
l inrinppgrp a s chair of the 18-member 
trade grouping. 

I US economy: The Federal Open 

^ Markets Committee, which sets interest 
rate policy for the Federal Reserve, 
meets in Washington for the first time 
since September. The FQMC is widely 
expected to raise interest rates by half 
a percentage point to cool down an 
economy growing at an annual rate 
well above 3 per cent 

Gaft ruling: The European Court of 
Justice rules In a dispute between the 
European Commission and EU member 
states aver which has the power to 
negotiate in certain trade areas to be 
coordinated by Gatt's successor body, 
the World Trade Organisation. 

Germmay’s Bundestag holds a formal 
vote to elect a chancellor for the next 
four years. Incumbent Helmut Kohl is 
the only candidate, but as his three- 
party coalition has a majority of just 10. 
it would take only five stray votes to 
knock him off course. 

Nepal holds parliamentary elections 
two years early, after rebel MFs 
brought down the Nepali Congress 
Party government of Girija Prasad 
Koirala in July. The 36 rebels and Mr 
Koirala have since made up, but a hung 
parliament is likely. 

Brazil holds second-round run-off 
elections for governor in 18 of its 27 
states, the remaining nine races having 
been decided outright In the first round 
last month. The states up for grabs 
Include Sdo Paulo and Rio de Janeiro. 

Angola's president, Jose Eduardo dos 
Santos, and Unita rebel leader Jonas 
Savimbi. are due to sign a peace accord 
to end the country's 19-year civil war. A 
ceasefire should follow two days later. 

The government has promised to halt 
its assault on the rebel stronghold of 
Huambo to avoid jeopardising the 
peace accord, but doubts persist on 
whether both sides are willing to put a 
permanent end to the conflict. 

Hungary's foreign minister Laszlo 
Kovacs and defence minister GyOrgy 
Keleti visit Nato headquarters in Bel- 
gium to sign Hungary’s bi-lateral Part- 
nership for Peace agreement 

UK-Argentine relations: Britain’s 
Prince Andrew starts an official visit to 
Argentina, marking further progress in 
efforts to normalise relations. Ties were 
severed after the 1982 FalMands war 
but restored in 1990. 

FT Surveys: European Airports and 
Computers in Finance. 

Holidays: Brazil (Republic Day). 
Indonesia. 



WEDNESDAY 


International Seabed Law 

The inaugural meeting of the 
International Seabed Authority in 
Jamaica will establish the latest speci- 
alised agency of the United Nations. Its 
birth follows almost S) years of conten- 
tious negotiations between industria- 
lised and developing countries. The 
Authority will monitor the exploitation 
of trillions of dollars worth of several 
metals on the international seabed, out- 
side the economic zone of any country. 

Britain’s parliament reopens with 
the Queen's Speech, outlining the gov- 
ernment's legislative plans. A pensions 
reform bill equalising the pension age 
at 65, measures to establish an allow- 
ance for jobseekers, and moves to 
deregulate the domestic gas market are 
expected. The government has dropped 
plans to privatise the Post Office. 

UK economy: Today's inflation 
figures are expected to show a small 
rise in the annual rate. Some analysts 
think September's 2 per cent underly- 
ing increase, the lowest for 27 years, 
will have been the trough of the cur- 
rent cycle. Economists expect the head- 
line figure, boosted by the recent rise in 
mortgage rates, to jump to 2.6 per cent 
in October, with the underlying rate 
edging up to 2.2 per cent 

Somalia: International donors and 
humanitarian agencies meet in Geneva 
(to Nov 17) to discuss aid to strife-tom 
Somalia after United Nations peace- 
keepers pull out next March. The UN 
Development Programme, the meet- 
ing's sponsor, hopes governments will 
go on funding rehabilitation and recon- 
struction programmes. 

Saleroom: 

The Winter Egg 
(left), made by 
the jeweller 
Carl Faberg* for 
Tsar Nicholas n 
to give to his 
mother, the 
Dowager 
Empress at 
Easter 1913. 
comes up for 
sale at Chris- 
tie's in Geneva. 
Inside a frosty 
exterior is the original ’’surprise", a 
basket of spring flowers, made of crys- 
tal and rose diamonds. This Imperial 
Egg, one of only 47 known to have sur- 
vived, is expected to make between 
SfL5m-$4.5m. 

The straight-sided “Balkenkreuz" 
insig nia , cut from "The Red Baron" von 
Richthofen's triplane when it was 
brought down behind Allied lines in 
April 1918, goes on sale at Phillips in 
London. Bids of up to £50,000 are expec- 
ted for this rare relic. The Baron, cred- 
ited with shooting down 80 Allied air- 
craft, was killed in the crash. 

FT Surveys: Derivatives and 
Denmark. 

Holidays: Germany (Day of Pen ance ). 


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Full speed ahead? The first fare-paying passengers on EuraniB tram enter the Channel Tunnel today 


THURSDAY 


EU telecoms liberalisation 

Telecommunications ministers from 
European Union member states meet in 
Brussels to push for further liberalisa- 
tion of the sector. High on the agenda 
is discussion of a European Commis- 
sion green paper on the deregulation of 
telecoms infrastructure and cable tele- 
vision networks. 

The commission is eager to shake up 
so-called alternative infrastructures, 
such as energy and transport networks 
to allow competition in all but basic 
voice telephone services. 

Kenya’s president, Daniel arap Moi, 
win open an investors' conference in 
London. The Kenyan government is 
hoping to attract new foreign investors, 
following the recent introduction of 
economic reforms which have sub- 
stantially improved the business 
environment. 

De nos caves: 



The first consignment of Beaujolais 
Nouveau wine is scheduled to arrive in 
Britain, making its way for the first 
time through the Channel TunneL 

FT Survey: Massachusetts. 

Holidays: Sri Lanka. 


FRIDAY 

Finnish vote on EU treaty 

The delayed parliamentary vote on 
F inland 's plans to join the European 
Union is due today. In a referendum 
last month, 56A par cent of Finns 
backed membership. A few anfci-EU 
MPs still hope to thwart the move 
which requires a two-thirds majority in 
the 200-seat legislature. 

Franco-German summit: UK prime 
minister J ohn Major and six ministers 
fly to the French cathedral town of 
Chartres to meet President Franpois 
Mitterrand, prime minister , Edouard 
Balladur and French counterparts. 

The one-day summit win touch on 
nwinninte and t rans port issues, includ- 
ing the row over access to Oily airport, 
but is expected to be dominated by 
rfpfonrp and security issues where the 
two countries are far more in tune. 
Their air forces are to set up a pfenning 
cell for speedy joint responses to crises 
outside Europe. 

Northern Ireland's moderate 
nationalist Social Democratic and 
Labour party, whose leader John Hume 
has played a pivotal role in the peace 
process, open a three-day annual con- 
ference in Cookstown, amid signs of 
moves towards a political settlement 
despite last week’s republican murder 
of a postal worker in Newry. 

FT Survey: Latvia. 

Ho l i da ys: fodia (Bombay only), Latvia 
(Independence Day), Morocco (Indepen- 
dence Day). 


WEEKEND : 

Chernomyrdin visits Guff 

Russian prinm minister Victor 
Cherno my rdin is scheduled to begin a 
trip through the Persian Gulf states. Mr 
Chernomyrdin, who, as the former head 
of Gasprom, Russia’s gas monopoly, 
plays a major role ta the development 
of Russia’s oil and gas sectors, {dans to 
visit Saudi Arabia, the United Arab 
Emirates, Kuwait and Oman. 

The visit to Kuwait could reignite the 
co n troversy begun last week when Rus- 
sian diplomacy helped to facilitate 
Iraq’s decision to drop all territorial 
claims to Kuwait Western countries 
have remained skeptical about Iraq’s 
declaration. 

Japan-EU trade: Three European 
commissioners are to ritomai trade 
with the Japanese government on Sat- 
urday. They want to ensure that the 
European Union Is not cut out of trade 
advantages accorded to the US during 
toe latest trade negotiations between 
Washington and Tokyo. 

Ukraine's president, Leonid Kuchma, 
is due to leave for a trip to the US on 
Saturday, during which he vrill hold 
talks with President Bill Clinton. Mr 
Kuchzna will be trying to encourage US 
investment in the hope that this 
will prompt other countries to follow 
suit 

Rugby: Scotland play South Africa at 
Murrayfield, Edinburgh. 

Compiled by Patrick Stiles. 

Fax , ; (+44) (0)171 873 3194. 






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Other economic news 

Monday; The strength of UK 
producer prices was toe main 
worry cited by the Bank of 
England in its latest inflation 
report. Rising raw material 
prices have increased indus- 
try’s costs. October's annual 
rise In producer input prices, 
announced today, is expected 
to be 7 per cent But costs have 
yet to be fully reflected In out- 
put prices (where the annual 
rise is forecast at 2L5 per cent), 
let alone in consumer prices. 

Wednesday: As well as Infla- 
tion figures, Britain’s Depart- 
ment of Employment will 
release statistics on unemploy- 
ment and average earnings. 
The steady drop in unemploy- 
ment, of 20.000-25,000 a month. 
Is expected to have continued 
in October, while September’s 
underlying annual average 
earnings growth is forecast to 
be stable at 3.75 per cent. 

The minutes of the Septem- 
ber 28 meeting between Ken- 
neth Clarke, chancellor of the 
exchequer and Eddie George, 
governor of the Bank of 
England will be published. 
Rates have been left 
unchanged since their meeting 

Thursday: Retail sales fig- 
ures for October will be one of 
the last indicators of consumer 
confidence before toe Novem- 
ber 29 Budget 


ACROSS 

I Conical sort of compact (7) 

5 Temples of a deity in step (7) 

9 Retired French writer in a 
tree (6) 

10 Inessential ruddy worker 
about to press for payment (9) 

11 French, rose grower? (from, 
unofficial news source) (9) 

12 A bit of a rotten nuisance! (5) 

13 Decree cited In error (5) 

IS Stiff? Relax with gin cocktail 

<9) 

IB lizard no longer In gorse at 
US development (9) 

19 Issue sun-helmet and cape (5) 

21 Using right hand, ring doctor 
for a lozenge (5) 

28 Detestable host, A. Mole, 
drunk?(9) 

25 Unconventional story of a 
name turning violent (9) 

26 Grainless tropic isle (5) 

27 Boxed In final, protecting 
chest?(7) 

28 Exchange views on second 
field event (7) 


ECONO MtC.'DtARY 


Stati s t i cs to be released this week 




0^ 


•iteT-w: 


at* 

■Mewed Country 

Mon UK 
Nov 14 UK ' 


Sweden 
Tubs US ~ 
Nov 15 US 


Nov 16 US 


Nov 17 US 


Austutia 


Oct producer price Index input* 0.3% 
Oct producer price index Input** .7% 

Oct producer price index output* 02% 

Oct produc er price index output** 2J5% 

Oct unemployment rate • 7.9% 

Oct retail sales 

Oct retail sates, ax autos - 

Johnson Radbook vi/e Nov 12 

Sep mach'ne onto, ex power/shipa” 3.1% 

Oct wholesale price Index" ‘ -1.4% 

Oct consumer price index 

Sep business Inventories 

Oct unemployment rate -25,000 

Sep average earrings 3.75% 

Oct pic str borrowing requ'mnt El.lbn 

Oct retail price Index* 03% 

Ml figures, w/e Nov 7 

M2 figures, w/e Nov 7 

M3 figwes, w/e Nov 7 

Oct housing starts 

Oct retail sates" (L3% 

Oct retail sate* 3.7% 

Company profits Bxt, third qfrt 


toy 

nw — erf Country 
Australia 


Nov 18 US 


Denmark 
During fee week... 
Japan 
Japan 
Germany 
Germany 
Germany 
NeMancfc 

’month on month, "year 


E c o n omi c Mods* 

SttdsSc Fonceat 

Oct mercharefise importst 

Unemployment rets, 3rd qtrfr - 

Sep trade, goods and services 
Sep goods and services export 
Sep goods and services import 
Sep trade, goods/ bai of peymts - 

Oct mon supply, M2/cash deposits” 2.3% 
Gross domestic prod, 3rd qlrq/q 0.8% 

Gross dome s ti c prod, 3rd qtr** 3.7% 

Oct M4 figures' ~~ 04% 

Oct M4 figures'* 4.5% 

Oct M4 lancing £2Abn 

Oct b/30dety new commits £2.7bn 

Sep trade balance}: $6bn 

Oct trade balance 

Oct trade balance, custom cleared $10.5bn 


$59£bn. 


-$K3bn 


Dam5.6bn 


$1l.9bn 


DOWN 

1 Droop hi way of a baked dish 
( 7 ) 

2 Aggressive groom show up? 
(9) 

3 Hospital in pleasant nook <5) 

4 New circular about universi- 
ty’s lists of study-courses (9) 

5 Parade, perhaps, without a 
chaplain? (5) 

6 Biscuit made by Sandy Stone? 
(W) 

7 Gaunt and wan, perhaps, 
going to doctor (5) 

8 Surroundings becoming hard 
(7) 

14 Do they work to sliding 
scaled? (9) 

16 Like hull encrusted and 
strigped^ with common salt 

17 Tm put into prom programme 
unrehearsed (9) 

18 Waves to champion to come 
up (7) 

20 Strange circles for clergymen! 
(7) 

22 Scotch governor of 19, per- 
haps (5) 

23 Furious being bfeck-and-blue 
(5) 

24 Wines or pops? (5) 



ian Oct dept store sales (Tokyo) - -3.9% 

rmany Oct wholesale price Index' 0.1% 0.1% 

rmany Oct producer price Index* 0.196 -0.1% 

rmany Oct producer price Index" 0-9% 0.7% 

Wands Sep Unemployment rate, 3 months 7.8% 7.6% 

Hi, "year on year teaasonafly adjusted Statistics, courtesy MMS International. 

MONDAY PRIZE CROSSWORD 

No.8,610 Set by DINMUTZ 

A prize of a PelQcan New Classic 390 fountain pen for the first correct 
solution opened and five runner-up prizes of £35 Pelikan vouchors vrtH be 
awarded. Solutions by Thursday November 24. marked Monday Crossword 
8.610 on the envelope, to the Financial Times, l Southwark Bridge, London 
SKI 9HL. Solution on Monday November 28. 


Winners 8,598 

Mrs Andrea Walker, Eccles- 
hlH, Bradford 

R. Blackburn, Preston, Lanca- 
shire 

Patricia Cunliffe. Whitley. 
Wi&m 

S. Goodwin, London SW13 
EJi. Hands, London W8 

D. Kehnanson, Hadley Wood, 
Herts 


Solution 8J588 


□nsaaQHuaHaa 

□ □DLaamnn 
aaoDatna bbqhqob 

QQaaaaBm 
□saga HQaaBHQQ 

□ a n □ □ □ b 

□assamHHa huge 
h a n o 0 fa 

0000 HnCJSQEDEBB 

□ a 0 0 0 B Q 

□□□□□□QQ D000D 

SDBQSQDQ 
□□□sues anaQBQQ 
anananao 

HQBaaEQnBOBQ 


Hyper-Active 





r AS-T week. Sun Microsystems Cory. 

1 announced their new workstation: 
die SPARC station 20 Mixfel HS1 1 . At its 
heart, the latest hyperS PARC processor. 
It dorks at lOOMIlz, ami new techniques 
increaw* performance over the existing 
SPARC line hy up to 25^. 

Morse have all the details in a one-page 
“Executive Summary”. Please phone for 
your free copy. 


4 ^Sun 

Authorised Reseller 

Morse Computers. 08L«76 0401 


Of broking and jobbing the Pelikan's fond. 

See lion 1 siveetly he puts your uvrd onto bond. 

Stouten© 


r -V £tp. 




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