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Arctic threatened 
by oil spillage in 
northern Russia 

A burning oQ slick spilling out from a pi peline in 
the northern Russian province of Komi is threaten- 
iag to create an environmental dis a s ter in the frag- 
ile Arctic. Komi officials asked Moscow for help in 
dealing with the spill yesterday, after the New York 
Times had already reported the leakage and said 
that it amounted to only 100,000 barrels. 

Page 16 

UK pensions inquiry: UK life insurers fece the 
prospect of compensating perhaps hundreds of 
thousands of investors, after a regulator’s inquiry 
suggested that the scale of poor advice in selling 
personal pensions was far greater than expected. 
Page 16 and Lea; Most life booses welcome SIB 
plan. Page 8; Editorial Comment, Page 15 

Mnl-etoctranics b rea kthrough: Researchers 
have made a breakthrough in electronic miniaturi- 
sation that could lead to computer memories 
microprocessors one five-hxmdreth the size and 500 
times faster than today's silicon chips. Page 16 

Eastman Kodak, the photographic manufac- 
turer, reported a farther decline in operating profit 
in the third quarter and said restructuring might be 
necessary. Page 17 

US currency and bond weakness blamed on Fed B European stocks suffer setbacks 

Markets fall as dollar hits new lows 

Europe Dollar 

Indices rebasod V per S DM per S 

85“ 1 1 1 96 ^ l — — * * 1.48“ * • 

Aug 1894 Oct Aug 1994 Oct Aug 1994 Oct 

Source: FT Graphic 

By Pfifflp Coggan 
and Philip Gawtth 

The US dollar slipped to fresh 
lows against the D-Mark and thn 
yen yesterday, while European 
bond and equity markets fell in 
the wake of Monday's rise in the 
US Treasury long bond yield 
above 8 per cent 

The US currency touched a 
post-second world war low of 
Y96J35 and a two-year low of 
DM1.4845, before recovering to 
dose in London at Y9&88 and 

Mr Lloyd Bentsen, the US Trea- 
sury secretary, whose reported 
comments last week hurt dollar 
sentiment by apparently ruling 
out intervention to support the 
US currency, yesterday said: “We 

would like a stronger dollar.” 

Traders have blamed the 
recent weakness in the dollar and 
the US Treasury bond market on 
the belief that the US Federal 
Reserve was acting too slowly to 
combat inflation. Mr Malcolm 
Barr, International economist at 
Chemical Bank in London, said: 
“Sentiment towards the dollar 
remains pretty unanimously neg- 

But Mr Alan Blinder, the Fed 
deputy chairman, said he did not 
believe the Fed was “behind the 
curve” in fighting inflation. “I 
think we're very close to riding 
the curve,” he said, implying that 
the Fed’s actions were up with 

However, Mr Blinder added 
that the economy was “showing 

fewer signs of deceleration than I 
would have thought several 
months ago.” 

Financial markets gained a 
small amount of relief yesterday 
from figures on US consumer 

confidence and employment 
costs, which appeared to show 
subdued inflationary pressures. 

Nevertheless, European mar- 
kets reacted negatively to the 
rise in the US long bond yield. 

with the 8 per cent level seen as a 
watershed for the markets. 

“Previously 8 per cent was seen 
as fair value for Treasury' bonds." 
said Mr Michael Hughes, global 
strategist at UK securities house 
BZW. “But there is a growing 
concern that markets are headed 
for an overshoot." UK investment 
bank Kleinwort Benson is pre- 
dicting that the long bond yield 
will rise to 8.5 per cent. 

German government bunds and 
UK gilts dropped about three 
quarters of a point and bond fed 
through to shares. 

In London, the FT-SE 100 index 
closed 28.2 points down at 3,000.9, 
hating at one point fallen 43.5 
points to 2,985.6. 

A weak US dollar also hurts 
European shares by damaging 

prospects for export-led growth 
and reducing the local currency 
value of the earnings of US sub- 
sidiaries or European companies. 

In Frankfurt, the DAX index 
closed 1.3 per cent lower in after- 
hours trading yesterday while in 
Paris, the CAC-40 index closed 
just under 1 per cent down. 

In New York, the 30-year Trea- 
sury bond had slipped a further 
sixth of a- point by 2.30pm and 
was yielding 8.06 per cent, while 
the Dow Jones Industrial Aver- 
age was 21.2 points lower at 

Consumer confidence, Page 6 
Bond yields. Page 17 
World Stocks, Bock Page, Sect II 
Currencies, Page 34 
International Bonds, Page 24 

Tenneeo, the diversified US industrial company, 
is expected to announce today that it will buy 
GEOet, a German automotive components manufac- 
turer, for cash and assumed debt in a deal valued at 
8113m. Page 17 

Protests on eve of Israef-Jard&n accord: 

A member of Jordan's 
parliament addresses 
protestors in the centre 
of Amman as part of a 
campaign to undermine 
the country's peace 
accord with Israel due to 
be signed today. The 
rally, attended by several 
thousand supporters of 
the powerful Moslem 
Brotherhood in the Hasb- 
irruyah square, was 
organised secretly as the Jordanian authorities had 
banned protests. Jordan needs help to ease debt 
burden. Page 4 

Sri Lankan victim’s widow to stand: The 

widow of assassinated Sri Lanifajn opposition leader 
Gamini Dissanayake was picked by the United 
National party to run in presidential elections in 
two weeks’ time. Page 4 

Steel Industry risks crisis: Europe's steel 
industry risks another crisis because of its failure 
to deliver crucial capacity cuts, warned Mr Karel 
Van Miert, European competition commissioner. 
Page 2; Lex, Page 16 

Report halls German recovery: The German 
government claimed Its policies had been vindi- 
cated by a report from the country’s six leading 
economic institutes predicting that the economy 
would grow by 2L5 per cent this year and by a fur- 
ther 3 per emit next year. Page 2 

UK and Franca ties closer: The UK and 

France are edging towards closer co-operation, 
particularly in defence and security, in spite of the 
two countries' history of ill-tempered spats and 
sharply contrasting rhetoric over Europe. Page 3 

Auto electronics mar ke t set to double: The 

automotive electronics market is forecast to double 
to $80bn a year between 1993 and 2000. Page 4 

Japanese index hits seven-year high: 

Japan's index of current business conditions hit a 
seven-year high in August, suggesting the recovery 
may be becoming more broadly based. Page 4 

EU credit rules risks extra rad tape: 

Brussels' plans to harmonise export credit within 
the European Union risk imposing extra delay and 
red tape on European exporters just when they face 
fiercer competition from the US, the leading French 
credit agency warned. Page 7 

Canadian trade mission to China: The 

rivalry among industrial countries to promote com- 
mercial ties with China will reach a new pitch next 
month when Mr Jean Chretien, Canada’s prime 
minister, leads a mission of almost 400 b usines s 
leaders, politicians and officials to Beijing. Page 7 

Eurostar delayed again: The Eurostar Channel 
tunnel rail network suffered its second delay on a 
trip arranged for invited guests to sample its ser- 
vice to the Continent Page 9 
Raw over unloaded petrol: UK legislators and 
the oil industry are arguing over whether unleaded 
petrol poses more of a threat to health than the 
leaded petrol it set out to replace. Page 9 


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Forced to quit Industry minister Neff Hamilton arrives in Whitehall 

Major orders probe 
into public life rules 
after sleaze claims 

with Saudi 

By Roger Matthews, 

Middle East Ecfitor 

Short-term export credit 
insurance for companies doing 
business in Saudi Arabia is being 
restricted by a leading interna- 
tional insurer. 

NCM Credit Insurance, the 
Dutch-controlled company which 
provides 80 per cent of shortterm 
export credit cover in the -UK, 
told customers it was St king the 
step because of the kingdom's 
“very grave” financial situation 
and payments delays. 

Meanwhiie, Mr Uoyd Bentsen, 
the US Treasury secretary, said 
yesterday that Saudi Arabia was 
facing some “credit problems”, 
but added that the kingdom did 
not have any serious financial 
itiffirnlttes . 

Mr Bentsen. who visited Saudi 
Arabia earlier this month, said 
that the governn^Ent :; «&|. taking 
steps to bring dtivm'file'budget 
deficit. i ‘ ' 

NGM Credit Insurance told UK 
customers it was cancelling open 
account credit limit approvals 
and would only reinstate them if 
strict criteria were met. This 
means that cover to regular 
exporters will no longer be auto- 
matically available. 

The company added: “We 
recognise the seriousness of 
these measures and their likely 
Impact on the business of many 
of our customers. 

“However, the situation in 
Saudi is very grave and contin- 
ues to deteriorate. It is therefore 
vital that we take action to pro- 
tect not only our own position 
hut, in the final analysis, that of 
our customers.” 

International concern about 
Saudi Arabia's financial health 
has increased since the 1991 Gulf 
war, which cost the kingdom 
about $60bn, and because of the 
continuing weakness in the mice 
of oiL hi an effort to answer 
International Monetary Fund 
concerns over the size of the bud- 
get deficit, the Saudi government 
announced at the start of the 
year that it would cut spending 
by 20 per cent 

A western diplomat in Riyadh 
conceded yesterday that many 
Saudi businessmen were pessi- 
mistic about the short-term eco- 
nomic outlook, but stressed that 
Saudi Arabia's ability to pump 
&n barrels erf oil a day for the 
next century guaranteed its 
long-term economic viability. 

NGM warned more than two 
months ago of its concern over 
lengthening payments delays and 
said amounts outstanding were 
“significant”. It added that the 
payments delays were affecting 
ail areas of the economy, and 
affecting Saudi buyers' ability to 
meet commitments to overseas 

Since then, NCM said: “The 

Continued on Page 16 

By Phfflp Stephens, 

Political Editor 

Mr John Major yesterday ordered 
the most sweeping investigation 
for 50 years into standards in 
public life after the mounting 
allegations of steals In his gov- 
ernment forced the second minis- 
terial resignation within a week. 

During a day of high drama at 
Westminster, Mr Nell Hamilton, 
the industry minister named last 
week as the recipient erf hospital- 
ity from the Hatreds owner Mr 
Mohammed Fayed, was forced by 
Mr Major to quit the government 

His resignation came just 90 
minutes before Mr Major told 
MPs he had set up an indepen- 
dent commission chaired by Lord 
Nolan, a leading judge, to carry 
out a fundamental review of the 
rules applying to holders of pub- 
lic office. The commission will 
act as a standing committee, 
remaining in place after produc- 
ing its first report in about six 

Ministers. MPs, civil servants, 
council members and officers, 
and appointees to quangos will 
all be subject to a review charged 
specifically to look at their finan- 
cial arrangements and commer- 
cial relationships. 

Mr Major told the Commons 
that he considered Mr Hamilton, 
who has insis ted that he is inno- 

cent of any impropriety, was no 
longer able effectively to carry 
out his ministerial duties. Earlier 
Mr Hamilton had expressed 
regret that he had not declared 
details erf a free stay at the Ritz, 
the Paris hotel owned by Mr 
Fayed, in the Commons registry 
of members' interests. 

Last week Mr Tim Smith, a 
junior minister at the Northern 
Ireland office, was forced to leave 
the government after admitt ing 
accepting payment from Mr 
Fayed to table questions in the 
House of Commons. 

Amid an astonishing series of 
charges and counter-charges 
between Mr Fayed and the gov- 
ernment, Mr Michael Howard, 
the home secretary, acknowl- 
edged that he had been one of the 
subjects of an investigation car- 
ried out by Sir Robin Butler, the 
cabinet secretary. 

In a statement released follow- 
ing the publication of the report. 
Mr Howard said the outcome had 
made clear he bad not committed 
any Impropriety. 

Sir Robin's report, however, 
did little to suppress the tide of 
rumour sweeping Westminster 
about the past links of other Con- 
servatives with Mr Fayed. The 

Continued on Page 16 
Reports, Page 8 
Editorial Comment, Page 15 


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Sprint forges US telecom 
alliance with cable groups 

By Tony Jackson In New York 

The race to create alliances in US 
telecommunications quickened 
yesterday with the announce- 
ment of a partnership between 
Sprint, the third largest US 
long-distance phone company, 
and three leading US cable com- 
panies. The partnership will aim 
to provide local, long-distance 
and mobile telephony, as well as 
multimedia entertainment and 
information services. 

“We will revolutionise what 
comes in over your telephone, 
your cable TV and your com- 
puter,” Mr William Esrey, Sprint 
rhairman, said. 

Sprint is to link with Telecom- 
munications Inc, the largest US 
cable company. Comcast, the 
fourth largest, and Cox Cable 
Communications, the sixth larg- 
est. The partners, which claim 
their existing cable networks run 
past one third of American 
homes, said they would seek to 
affiliate with other cable compa- 
nies In areas where they were not 
represented. All phone services 
would be sold under the Sprint 
brand name. 

The new venture will bid for 
persona] communication service 
licences in the government auc- 
tion this December. The auction, 
which it is thought may raise 
over SlObn. has prompted other 


Sprint 40% 

Tote-Communications Inc 30% 
Comcast 15% 

Cox Cable 15% 

Immediately: Sprint 

long -distance phone services 
over local cable networks 
Later fuH voice, video and data 

W3I also bid Jointly for personal 
communications services 
licences in December auction. 

bidding alliances such as that 
announced last week by the 
regional telephone companies 
Bell Atlantic. Nynex, US West 
and AiiTouch. 

The Sprint partners refused 
details on the scale of the Invest- 
ment. Much would depend on 
their bidding strategy in the auc- 
tions, they said. Mr James Kenn- 
edy, chairman of Cox, said the 
investment was “hot a lot of 
money given the scope of the 
venture". Sprint will own 40 per 
cent of the venture. TCI 30 per 
cent and the other two 15 per 
cent each. 

The alliance is also a response 
to the challenge set by the recent 
merger of AT&T and McCaw, 
respectively the biggest 
long-distance and mobile phone 
companies in the US. Unlike that 
merger. It has to overcome the 
regulatory rules against cable 
companies competing in local 
telephone services. 

Mr Brian Roberts, president of 
Comcast, said: “The timing [of 
the venture] depends on how well 
our government acts to put the 
essential rules in place.” Legisla- 
tion to allow cable and local 
phone companies to compete in 
each others’ markets collapsed 
last month in Congress. 

Mr Esrey said: “We feeL opti- 
mistic that we will get national 
legislation this year, or if not, the 
year after.” As a back-up, he said, 
the partners would lobby individ- 
ual states for changes in the reg- 

Included as part of the new 
company will be Teleport, an 
existing joint venture between 
the three cable companies and a 
fourth. Continental Cable vision. 
Teleport offers specialised local 
telephone services to business in 
19 US cities. The partners said 
they were in discussions with 
Continental about its minority 

Lex. Page 16 



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How Kohl linked EMI choice to Delors succession 

Germany threatened to block the 
candidacy of Mr Ruud Lubbers as 
president of the European Commis- 
sion unless the Dutch premier 
dropped his opposition to Frankfurt 
as the site for Europe's future cen- 
tral bank, according to a confidential 
Dutch government memorandum. 

The memorandum is the first evi- 
dence that Chancellor Helmut Kohl 
linked the location of the future cen- 
tral bank to who should succeed Mr 
Jacques Delors. It also explains Mr 
Kohl's resolute opposition to Mr 
Lubbers, recently retired as tbe lon- 
gest serving prime minister in Dutch 

But the document confirms, too, 
how Mr Kohl saw the location of the 
European Monetary Institute in 
Frankfurt as the absolute minimum 
needed to assuage the German pub- 
lic's fears about giving up the 

Lionel Barber reports on a confidential memo revealing the extent of German 
arm-twisting over siting of the European Monetary Institute in Frankfurt 

D-Mark in a future European 
monetary union. This is despite 
European allies’ worries about 
strengthening Frankfurt as a finan- 
cial centre in charge of a de facto 
D-Mark zone. 

In an interview yesterday. Mr Piet 
Dankert, the former Dutch minister 
for European affairs and current 
member of the European parliament, 
yesterday confirmed the authenticity 
of the memo, first disclosed at tbe 
weekend by the Dutch KRO public 
television service. 

Mr Dankert singled out a 
high-level diplomatic exchange in 
Bonn on October 21, 1993. in which 
Mr Joachim Bitterlich, the Chancel- 

lor’s top foreign affairs adviser, 
attacked Mr Lubbers* opposition to 
Frankfurt as tbe appropriate loca- 
tion for the EMI. 

Mr Bitterlich warned Mr Dankert 
that this opposition would have 
“consequences", with Mr Kohl turn- 
ing to another candidate for the top 
Commission post 

Mr Kohl’s private office yesterday 
denied any connection between the 
location of the EMI and the Delors 
succession, or that Mr Bitterlich had 
raised the matter during Mr Dank- 
ert's visit to Bonn. 

However, Mr Dankert said he 
recalled receiving a veiled warning 
about the EMI connection horn Mr 

Bemd Schmidbauer, a senior Ger- 
man official which was then deliv- 
ered more forcibly by Mr Bitterlich. 

Mr Dankert said: “There is not the 
slightest doubt that the conversation 
took place. Because of its explosive 
nature. I asked for an immediate 
note to be taken down." 

He relayed tbe German threat to 
Mr Lubbers at a meeting early the 
following morning. Mr Lubbers then 
sought a meeting with Mr Bitterlich 
two days later in which a second 
veiled threat was made, according to 
the KRO broadcast. 

Senior German officials familiar 
with the meeting argued that it 
made no sense for the Bonn govern- 

ment to issue a direct threat to Mr 
Lubbers because, at that time, he 
had failed to announce his Candida- 
ture to succeed Mr Delors. 

But the officials conceded that the 
strongest representations had been 
made to the Dutch government to 
drop their campaign to locate the 
EMI In Amsterdam or, as a second 
best choice, Bonn. The officials said 
the matter turned on German’s sov- 
ereign right to choose where it 
wished to place tbe future central 

European Union leaders finally 
agreed to Frankfurt at a summit in 
Brussels on October 29, 1993. Mr 
Kohl subsequently asked Mr Jean- 

Luc Dehaene. the Belgian prime 
minister, to become a candidate to 
succeed Mr Delors. France later 
backed the Dehaene candidacy, 
despite President Francois 
Mitterrand’s preference for Mr Lub- 

However, the UK. with tacit Dutch 
support, objected to the Franco-Ger- 
man plan and vetoed Mr Dehaene at 
the European summit in Corfu last 
June. Mr Kohl called a second sum- 
mit in mid -July in which he secured 
a consensus in favour of Mr Jacques 
Santer. prime minis ter of Luxem- 

Many MEPs objected to Mr Santer 
and raised questions about the pro- 
cedure for selecting the president of 
the Commission, a post which Mr 
John Major, Britain’s prime minis- 
ter, described as one of the most 
important In the world. 

Brussels warns 
of future steel 
industry crisis 

By Emma Tucker 
In Strasbourg 

Europe's steel industry risks 
another crisis in the future 
because of its failure to deliver 
crucial capacity cuts, warned 
Mr Karel Van Miert. European 
commissioner responsible for 
competition. He was announc- 
ing the death of the Commis- 
sion's steel restructuring plan, 
created two years ago to help 
restore the beleaguered indus- 
try to bealth during Europe’s 
deep recession. 

Mr Van Miert said industry's 
failure to stick to the plan bad 
left it with overcapacity in the 
EU of some 20m tonnes. “It is 
unfortunate that in this plan 
not all the actors did what 
needed to be done,” he said. 

Under the plan, Europe’s 
steelmakers were required to 
make minimum cuts in capac- 
ity of 19m tonnes, but fell short 
of this target by around 3.5m 
tonnes. Enthusiasm for the 
capacity cuts wore off as inter- 
national steel prices began to 
recover steadily. 

Disbandment of the plan 
means that there will be no 
more discussion between the 
Commission and industry over 
the state of the market, with 
the Commission dropping its 
quarterly guidelines for pro- 
duction 3nd delivery volumes. 
In addition, measures to 
restrict imports from eastern 
Europe - in particular from 
Slovakia and the Czech Repub- 
lic - will be dropped. “Normal 
competitive conditions will 
apply." said Mr Van Miert. 

The German Steel Federation 



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Relations between UN force chief and government at new low 

Bosnia politicians call 
for removal of Rose 

criticised the decision, saying 
that its members had done 
their part to cut capacity, 
“trusting that the European 
Commission would continue its 
efforts for market stabilisation 
until a successful conclusion". 
Since 1992 German companies 
had made decisions to cut 6m 
tonnes of crude steel and 
almost 3m tonnes of hot-rolled 
products, it said. 

Industry Commissioner Mar- 
tin Bangemann has said the 
EU industry was wrong to put 
off needed restructuring 
because of a temporary recov- 
ery in the market. “They’ll be 
knocking (on the door) again 
in three years time,” said a 
Commission official. 

The recovery is in part due 
to increased exports to the US 
and Asia, said Mr Alan Coats, 
a steel analyst at Paribas Capi- 
tal Markets in London. He said 
the industry cannot depend on 
exports for continued health, 
especially since imports from 
eastern Europe and Russia 
were likely to grow. 

Despite the collapse of the 1 
rescue plan, a package of social 
subsidies, designed to ease the 
impact of steel plant closures, 
will continue to apply until the 
end of 1995. the Commission 
said yesterday. 

The Commission has also | 
decided to recommend to mem- 
ber states that they accept the I 
German government’s hid to 
rescue Eko Stahl, east Ger- | 
many’s largest steel mill, 
through a hefty state subsidy. | 
Steel back in the melting pot. 
Page 14; Lex, Page 16 

By Bruce Clark, Diplomatic 

Relations between the Bosnia's 
Moslem-led government and 
the United Nations plunged to 
a new low yesterday as Sara- 
jevo politicians ■ demanded the 
removal of General Sir Michael 
Rose, the UN force com- 

Bosnian officials and the UN 
also exchanged harsh words 
over the origin of a unprece- 
dented fire-fight between gov- 
ernment soldiers and French 
peacekeepers on the slopes of 
Mount feman outside Sarajevo 

Eight Bosnian political par- 
ties lent their support to a 
demand that “Rose must go" 
which was published in Sara- 
jevo's daily newspaper, Oslo- 

They accused the British 
commander, whose year-long 
tour of duty ends in January, 

of having “done everything to 
water down tbe decisiveness of 
the free world in punishing 
crime and fascism". They said 
Gen Rase was more interested 
in protecting British interests 
than in implementing UN reso- 

“We will be asking for an 
impartial, objective com- 
mander, one who will imple- 
ment UN resolutions on the 
ground — and not a general 
who protects the interests of 
his government." 

UN spokesman Colonel Tim 
Spicer said Gen Rose was not 
concerned about the criticism 
and that there was no question 
of his leaving before his 12- 
month assignment ended. “Tbe 
job of a peacekeeper as 
opposed to a peace enforcer is 
a difficult path to walk and 
there is no question that Gen- 
eral Rose has walked a central 
line in furtherance of the mis- 
sion given to him.” 

Gen Rose had followed “a 
strong line in furtherance of 
United Nations policy and 
sticking to agreements that 
have already been made may 
be unpopular in some cases". 

The reputation of Gen Rose 
among residents of Sarajevo 
soared last February when his 
tough diplomacy helped to 
bring an end to the siege of the 
city and restore relative nor- 
mality to dally life. 

His standing in the eyes of 
Moslems sagged two months 
later, when be was perceived 
as too soft in his response to 
the Serb assault on the enclave 
of Gorazde, and it feD still fur- 
ther in August, when the UN 
failed to stop the Serbs from 
reimposing a partial blockade 
of Sarajevo. 

But UN officials stress that 
right from the beginning, the 
general’s efforts to ensure a 
normal life for as many Bos- 
nian civilians as possible have 

/ TRi 

UN force commander. Gen Sir Michael Rose (right), pictured in 
Vitez earlier this year 

been met with far from univer- 
sal cooperation from Bosnian 
officials and generals. 

The February ceasefire in 

Sarajevo required some very 
tough talking to Bosnia's Mos- 
lem leaders as well as to the 
besieging Serbs. 

Report hails ‘lively’ Germany recovery 











lywhere or every penny back 

By Michael Undemann in Bonn 

Hie German government was 
quick to claim yesterday that 
its policies had been vindi- 
cated by a report from the 
country's six leading economic 
institutes predicting that the 
economy would grow by 2.5 
per cent this year and by a 
further 3 per cent next year. 

Presenting their twice 
yearly study, the most compre- 
hensive check-up on the health 
of tbe German economy, the 
institutes said the recovery 
had been “surprisingly early 
and lively". In April they had 
predicted that German gross 
domestic product would rise 
by 1.5 per cent 

"Now we can see that the 
government's economic 
assumptions were not just cal- 
culated optimism but based on 
the improved conditions for 

Ge rman y 

Real GOP yr OW B i 
Amid 96 change {'unadjusted) 

1 0 ' -l 'Mat' 

I v-, M - r — 

8 ■ — •Wenwnr. * 

10ff 92 83 at as 

Souen: OIW 

growth which have been 
achieved,” Finance Minister 
Theo Waigel said. 

For the third time running, 
however, the left wing Berlin- 
based German Institute for 
Economic Research (DIW) dis- 

agreed with the other five 
institutes, arguing that the 
rise in long-term interest rates 
'posed a threat to economic 
recovery. The institute said 
GDP would grow by 1.5 per 
cent next year. 

The report says Germany’s 
recovery had initially been 
driven by exports but there 
was now evidence that capital 
investment had become the 
driving force of the recovery. 
Responding to the report, how- 
ever, the influential Federa- 
tion of German Industry (BDD 
said there were fewer grounds 
for optimism because compa- 
nies were still not earning 
enough to make substantial 

Inflation, which has failed to 
fell below 3 per cent in August 
and September, is forecast to 
dip to 2.5 per cent next year, 
the report said. Continuing 

inflationary pressure caused 
-by- the growth of the M3 
money supply, the key indica- 
tor used by the Bundesbank, 
suggested there was no need 
for the central bank to make 
any substantial cuts in its 
leading interest rates, the 
report said. 

The institutes also recom- 
mended the government 
increase the budget deficit in 
order to relieve companies and 
consumers of “massive tax 
increases". But tbe association 
which represents Germany's 
largest private banks, said it 
would be wrong to raise the 
budget deficit in order simply 
to cut expenditure. “A strict 
redaction of spending and the 
reduction or the amount of 
taxes levied should go band in 
hand," the Federation of Ger- 
man Banks said. 

The report coincides with 

figures which show that Ger- 
many’s trade surplus rose 
sharply in August to DMT.lbn 
(£2Jbu), double the July level. 
Exports were 14 per cent up on 
the previous year while 
imports rose 6 per cent. 

The trade surplus for the 
first eight months of this year 
totalled DM47bn. 25 per cent 
higher than for the same 
period a year earlier. The cur- 
rent account deficit, however, 
almost doubled to DM36.5bn, 
partly because of the high 
level of payments by German 
tourists abroad. 

Meanwhile the public sector 
financing deficit confirmed the 
positive trends, falling by 
DM23bn to DM63bn for the 
first half of this year, better 
than the 1994 budget plan had 
indicated according to a state- 
ment from the Federal Statis- 
tics Office. 

MPs’ amendments may hit revenue measures and pension reform 

Italian budget faces big hurdles 


Nw wmm MWWI 

U I K t L | 

By Robert Graham in Rome 

The Italian government is 
struggling to retain the iden- 
tity and objectives of the 1995 
budget amidst a vast quantity 
of amendments being tabled by 
the right-wing coalition and 
tbe opposition alike. 

The latest and most impor- 
tant amendment has been 
introduced by the government 
to offset a poor response to one 
of the main revenue nosing 
measures. The move concerns 
a loosening of the rules regard- 
ing the amnesty on illegal con- 
struction and property develop- 
ment to encourage more 
taxpayers to take advantage of 
the concession. The amnesty. 

based on encouraging persons 
to register construction carried 
out without proper permission 
through the payment of a 
small fine, has failed to prove 
attractive. The measure was 
introduced before the summer 
and is due to yield l2L500bn 
($1.6bn) this year and close to 
LlOJXKfbn next year. 

But so Ear only L61bn has 
been paid in and the initial 
closing date for registrations is 
October 31. Thus, the govern- 
ment is further reducing the 
scope of sanctions applied to 
illicit buildings, especially on 
first homes. 

The opposition has already 
challenged the original mea- 
sure and a number of regional 

administrations have chal- 
lenged the decree on environ- 
mental grounds in the consti- 
tutional court, adding farther 
to the confusion over the likely 
revenue yield. 

More than 1,000 amendments 
have been tabled to the budget 
- in almost equal proportion 
between the government mem- 
bers and the opposition. The 
bulk of the changes relate to 
the controversial pensions 
reform, following the govern- 
ment’s decision to try to elimi- 
nate the many anomalies and 
hardship cases created by the 
proposals submitted on Sep- 
tember 30. 

According to latest esti- 
mates. the changes will add an 

extra Ll.OOObn to the pensions 
bill in 1995 and even more in 
the following two years. The 
treasury is adamant the budget 
deficit target of L138.000bn, 
equivalent to 8 per cent of 
GDP, cannot be altered. How- 
ever. the more the original 
measures are altered to satisfy 
different interest groups, the 
harder it will be to maintain 
this target. 

Yesterday the trade unions 
announced they were going 
ahead with plans to organise a 
1m strong demonstration in 
Rome on November 12 to pro- 
test against the budget and 
pension reform. This is a fol- 
low-up to the general strike 
two weeks ago. 

Berlusconi: his 1995 draft 
budget assailed on all sides 

US hails 

By John Thornhill to Moscow 

The rouble's recent fall has 
served as a “wake-up” call for 
tbe Russian government creat- 
ing an important opportunity 
for a serious stabilisation pro- 
gramme next year, Mr Larry 
Summers. US Treasury under- 
secretary for international 
affairs, said In Moscow yester- 

Following talks with senior 
Russian officials about the 
reform process and the 1995 
budget proposals, Mr Summers 
said he take an encouraging 
report back to Washington. “It 
is clear that Russian economic 
reform is at an important 
crossroads and it is clear that 
the government is charting a 
course forward." he said. “I 
welcome the clear intentions 
from all the government offi- 
cials 1 met with of a commit- 
ment to serious stabilisation." 

He warned, however, that 
the erosion of the tax collec- 
tion system and the growth of 
organised crime posed serious 
threats. Mr Summers said tax 
revenues were 4 per cent of 
gross national product less 
than they were a year ago. 
“Reversal of that kind of ero- 
sion will be centra] to the sta- 
bilisation effort," he said, sug- 
gesting what was needed was 
to collect more tax money at 
lower rates From a broader 

The austere budget proposals 
for 1995 envisage that further 
monetary tightening will 
reduce inflation to 1 per cent a 
month by the end of the year. 
The federal budget deficit 
would also be kept within 8.3 
per cent of gross domestic 

One Group of Seven official 
said: “What is under discus- 
sion is the prospect of a real 
stabilisation not just a slowing 
| down of inflation. That means 
more reform and potentially 
more direct financial support 
than has come from the IMF so 

But some western econo- 
mists warn that the govern- 
ment has talked tough before 
and bowed to the pressures of 
the industrial lobby to issue 
more credits. The 1995 budget 
is also expected to have a 
rough passage through parlia- 
ment and the ability to Imple- 
ment the current proposals is 
far from certain. 

Mr Oleg Soskovets. Russia's 
first deputy prime minister, 
said yesterday that the govern- 
ment also had to change the 
“oil export structure" and 
rerise the taxation system to 
achieve financial stabilisation. 

Mr Summers said the recent 
currency volatility had been a 
stark warning of the dangers of 
loosening the economic levers. 
“I do not think that there is 
any question that their mone- 
tary and credit policies in late 
summer were an important 
contributing factor in the fall 
of the rouble," Mr Summers 

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Brussels pushes 
hard on telecoms 

The European Commission yesterday challenged member 
states to speed up the liberalisation; of Europe's telecommuni- 
cations industry. The Commission decided to adopt the first 
part of its green paper on infrastructures, which is aimed at 
opening those that are currently only authorised to cany 
specific services - for example ran and energy networks - to 
other liberalised services. This would cover videoon-demand 
and distance learning, for example, hut not basic voice tele- 
phone services, which will not be liberalised until 1998. Mr 
Karel Van Miert, commissioner responsible for competition, 
aid the Commission had also backed in principle the aim of 
liberalising basic telephone infrastructures - which remain 
largely under monopoly control - by January 1 1998, at the 
same time that voice services are opened up to competition. 
The Commission also intends to present member states with 
proposals, at a meeting of telecoms ministers next wirmtb , for 
liberalising cable television networks. The Commission’s deci- 
sion yesterday should allow the council of ministers to estab- 
lish a clear timetable for liberalisation before the Essen sum- 1 
mit in December. Emma Tucker, Brussels I 

Mollemann quits FDP post 

Mr JGrgen MfiQemazm (left), 
chief rival to Mr Klaus Kin- 
kel, Germany’s foreign minis- 
ter and head of the Free Dem- 
ocrats (FDP), yesterday 
resigned from his party post 
in protest against being 
excluded from coalition talks 
with Chancellor Helmut Kohl 
Mr MBllemann, who went so 
far as to blame Mr TC?ntr«i for 
the FOP’S poor showing in 
the recent federal elections, 
quit as party leader in the 
state of Nortb-Bhine West- 
phalia. The FDP saw its share 
of the vote reduced from 11 
per cent in 1990 to 69 per cent 
two weeks ago. Offidals in 
Bonn said Mr MOUemann’s 
resignation was unlikely to heal the policy rifts in the FDP. 
The party is sharply divided between those who want a return 
to libertarian values and greater deregulation of the market, 
and those who have compromised the party’s old traditions in 
favour of remaining as a junior partner in Mr Kohl’s Christian 
Democra tic-led coalition. The future strategy of the party will 
be debated at a special meeting in December. Mr MSBemann, a 
former economics minis ter who was forced to resign his cabi- 
net post in late 1992 for abuse of office, would not discuss his 
future plans. Judy Dempsey, Berlin 

Hungary in public sector purge 

Hungary’s new Socialist-led administration yesterday sacked 
most of the directors of two large state companies and is 
expected to announce similar chang es at its oil and electricity 
monopolies shortly. Mr Laszlo Pal, trade and industry minis- 
ter, said the head of MVM, the electricity monopoly, had used 
company revenues to support the previous conservative gov- 
ernment’s electoral campaign and that several MVM braid 
members were not qualified for their jobs. He said eight of the 
11 board members would be removed next week. AV Rt, the 
state holding company, said it bad dismissed the general 
director of Antenna Rt, the radio and television tr ansmis sion 
operator, from its board for foiling to notify it and co-directors 
of a Ftlbn (£2x8m) contract It said it lad dismissed five of the 
nine directors of TVK, the country's largest chemical com- 
pany, in order to facilitate privatisation. Western observers in 
Budapest welcomed some of the changes, which had been 
expected for some time, and said that overall the new appoin- 
tees were well qualified. Virginia Marsh, Budapest 

Turkey talks tough to Greece 

Turkey could “whip Greece” if the two Nato allies fight over 
rights in the Aegean Sea, the Turkish foreign minister, Mr 
Mumtaz SoysaL said on Turkish television an Monday night 
i “We don’t want a reckoning. We know who will win if there is 
one. We can whip Greece," Mr Soysal said. He added that 
Turkey was making military preparations but did not elabo- 
rate. “If you want peace you most be prepared for war,” he 
said quoting a Turkish saying. Greece maintains it has a right 
to double its territorial waters to 12 nautical miles but has no 
plane to do so. Turkey has said Greece’s enforcement of a 
12- mile limit would be reason for war. Many Greek islands are 
close to the Tur kish Tppfaiawd and extension of Greek waters 
would effectively deny Turkish boats access to the sea. The 
two countries backed down from the brink erf war over mineral 
rights in the Aegean Sea in 1987. Reuter, Ankara 

■ US a sy*gfa»Ti* secretary of state John Shattuck yesterday 
voiced his “greatly heightened concern about the growing 
cycle of violence" in Turkey. During a visit, be c o n d e mn ed the 
“terror" of the Kurdish insurgency In the southeast of the 
country but called on Turkey to seek a political rather than 
military, solution to the conflict John Barham, Ankara 

Polish broadcasting row grows 

In a continuing row over commercial television and radio 
licences Poland's parliament is to be asked to set up a com- 
mittee to examine whether Mr Janusz Zaorski the head of the 
TV and Radio Council regulatory body, is infringing the coun- 
try's broadcast laws. The motion came after dej^es yester- 
day asked Mr Zaorsla, who was appointed by President Lech 
Walesa last summer, why he was delaying signing a broadcast 
licence awarded months ago to the French pay-TV channel 
pjmai Plus. The French channel is at the head of a queue of 
broadcasters promised commercial licences, but are awaiting 
Mr Zaorski' s confirmation. Christopher Bobinski, Warsaw 


Austrian industrial output rises 

Austria's industrial output 
. .. .. . • • rose 4 per cent year-on-year 

AtaOM “ . . - . . in August following a 5 per 

industrial production “• -. cent rise in July. The figures 

Anntad % change ' confirm the strength of the 

economic recovery following 
\ f \ the country's short and shal- 

* ' ' r low recession last year. Econ- 

5 ^ ^ ^ ! omlsts have recently raised 

: y , their forecasts of real GDP 

Q •' ;• growth fids year to nearly 3 

v. K per cent after a Ofi per cent 

, I ‘ • ■ fan last year. Industrial pro- 
j duettan is being supported by 

■ X I • buoyant exports, a housing 

.-*.?? TT'Vfryrrr rrr* ^ . construction boom and 

• f- ; t - undented consumer confi- 

: .«ws ■ -r.- v; 9*( ;■ / dence. Inflation remai ns a 

sagtoc b i ri—BBara : r~— concern, but the annual rate 

State' W ED ertxTi by the tea 

national elections earlier 

this month, km Rodger, Zurich ■ 

■ Wholesale prices in D enmaris rose by 01 

" and were L7 per cent bigha- than in the 

SrnnthErar This supports government claims that 

rf 4.6 per cent this year 

■ Swe dish producer prices rose 0.4 per cent in Septe mber JV om 

P® «■* Y^year. producer 

prices rose 115 per cent 

T .• 


Balladur avoids showdown over Chirac 

From Reuter bi Parts 

The French prime minister. Mr 
Edouard Balladur, backed out 
of a potential showdown with 
MPs of his Ga nTfcrt RPR party 
yesterday in the presence of 
the party's leader mid his pres- 
idential rival Mr Jacqnes 

Mr Balladur surprised depu- 
ties by cancelling 1 an address to 

the RPR raiitiiy in parliairiftp f; 

at which he had been expected 
to come under fire for launch- 
ing personal criticism of Mr 
Chirac on Monday. 

Both men are undeclared 
RPR rivals to succeed Presi- 
dent Francois Mitterrand next 
May and their infighting is 
encouraging the opposition 

Socialists, routed in a 1993 gen- 
eral election. But Mr Balladur 
denied he had pulled out at the 
last moment “I didn’t choose. 
It was decided weeks ago," be 

His remarks contradicted an 
official agenda distributed by 
his office on Monday, which 
said he would visit the 
national assembly on Tuesday 
afternoon. The RPR floor 
leader, Mr Bernard Pons, said 
he was only told late yesterday 
morning' that Mr Balladur was 
not coming. Instead. Mr Balla- 
dur was to visit RPR members 
at the senate, where be was 
less likely to face hostility. 

Mr Balladur criticised Mr 
Chirac on Monday in an inter- 
view with the daily Le Figaro 

for failing to speak out in 
de fen ce of the franc when the 
currency was under attack last 
year, saying Mr Chirac had 
stayed silent for reasons of 
party expediency. “For a long 
time, Jacques has taken refrige 
in his party as if it were a 
citadel Is this really the spirit 
of the Fifth Republic?" the 
prime minister gold hi his open 
assault on Mr Chirac after a 
series of veiled criticisms. 

Mr Chirac responded yester- 
day by calling for an end to 
“futile polemics and phoney 
quarrels”, reminding unnamed 
politicians that they should 
serve France with dignity and 

La Lettre de la Nation, the 
official newsletter of the RPR, 

was more direct It said the 
prime minister “has deeply 
wounded elected members and 
others in the RPR". 

The party’s assistant gener- 
al-secretary, Mr Eric Raoult. 
said: “If we have an RPR mime 
minister today, he shouldn't 
spit on his own political move- 
ment" Many pro-Chirac depu- 
ties said Mr Balladur owed his 
position as prime minister to 
Mr Chirac. 

Meanwhile, the former 
French president Mr Valfcry 
Giscard d'Estaing, said yester- 
day that rivalries on the right 
were no obstacle to winning 
the presidency. He noted that 
the right had three times 
fielded two rival candidates 
since 1958 and won. 

Balladur: cancelled a speech in Paris to RPR deputies 

Anglo-French ties to grow despite ‘teasing’ 

By Bruce dark. Diplomatic 

Britain and France are edging 
towards closer cooperation, particu- 
larly in defence and security, despite 
the two countries’ history of ill-tem- 
pered spats and sharply contr as t in g 
rhetoric over the future of Europe. 

Mr Douglas Hurd, the UK foreign 
secretary, told an Anglo-French audi- 
ence in London this week that “there 
are realty no two substantial coun- 
tries more similar than France and 
Britain". “We differ occasionally. 

though almost always only by a 
degree or two, in our response to par- 
ticular world events," he added. “But 
when it comes to the point ... we are 
side by side.” 

w hite acknow led g in g the existence 
of “mutual teasing and aggravation" 
between the British and French 
media, he stressed the two nations’ 
virtual identity erf views over Bosnia 
and argued that their ideas on the 
European Union were not for apart 
“Neither for Britain nor for France is 
there attraction in a vision erf Europe 
which erodes national identity." the 

foreign secretary told the Fran co-Brit- 
ish council. 

He stressed that for now, Britain 
and France were the only two Euro- 
pean countries which had extensive 
global interests, and therefore main- 
tained a defence capability that was 
well adapted to overseas deployment 

Germany, prevented until recently 
by political and constitutional barri- 
ers from sending troops into combat 
overseas, is preparing at least one 
division for global deployment How- 
ever, tins is not exported to be ready 
until the year 2000. Mr Hurd con- 

firmed that the UK and France were 
engaged in discussions about closer 
co-operation in military aviation, 
which were expected to come to a 
head at the Anglo-French s ummi t in 
Chartres next month. 

British officials say these discus- 
sions are focusing on relatively tech- 
nical questions, such as common pro- 
cedures for sharing air space, which 
would make it easier for the UK and 
French air forces to co-operate in 
humanitarian or peace-keeping mis- 
sions overseas. French press reports 
have suggested that a Joint headquar- 

ters, or even a joint intervention 
force, could be established. But one 
British official insisted that at this 
stage, such speculation amounted to 
“adding two and two and making 

Setting aside the intense 
Anglo-French wrangling which has 
often marred discussions about Euro- 
pean security. Mr Hurd said both 
countries were committed to closer 
integration of the continent’s defence 
effort. “The contribution of both 
Britain and France will be indispens- 
able," he said. 

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business index signals recovery 


By WUJiam Dawkins in Tokyo 

Japan's official index of 
current business conditions hit 
a seven-year high in August, 
suggesting the recovery may 
be becoming more broadly 

The government Economic 
Planning Agency’s coincident 
indicator, a basket of 11 eco- 
nomic and business measures, 
rose above the SO per cent 
dividing line between growth 
and decline in August for the 
first time in three months, it 
hit 90 per cent, the highest 
since July 1987. 

This eases pressure on the 

Bank of Japan to cut interest 
rates, when the yen is 
strengthening again, and 
reduces strain on the govern- 
ment is the middle of a diffi- 
cult parliamentary session. 

The EPA's leading indicator, 
a measure of the three-to-six- 
month outlook, was even 
stronger, at 100 per cent, the 
eighth month at which it has 
stood above economic equilib- 
rium. Within this, 10 of the 
leading index’s 13 components 
were pointing upwards. This 
suggests the current upturn 
has more depth than the eco- 
nomic revival of spring 1993, 
which turned out to be a false 

start, Mr Dick Besson, senior 
economist at James Capel 
Pacific, said. 

Four components of the lead- 
ing index shifted from decline 
to growth between July and 
August: graduates' job pros- 
pects, the amount of fioorspace 
used by companies, money sup- 
ply, and manufacturing indus- 
try profitability. Most of the 
other components continued a 
regular improvement 

Evidence that patches of 
weakness still exist in impor- 
tant parts of the Japanese 
economy emerge d yesterday 
with poor results from the 
vehicle and department stores 

sectors. Vehicle production fell 
by 7.2 per cent to 5.1m units in 
the six months to September, 
from the same period last year, 
slightly less bad than the 10.4 
per cent decline of the first 
half of 1993. The latest result 
was the third-sharpest six- 
monthly fall in 20 years, the 
Japan Automobile Manufactur- 
ers' Association said. 

Department stores, a victim 
of discount retailing, recorded 
a 2.1 per cent sales decline in 
the year to September, the 31st 
monthly decline running, it 
was. however, an improvement 
on the 3.6 per cent decline 
shown in August. Business 

continues to crawl, the Japan 
Department Stores Association 

• The cabinet yesterday 
adopted a plan to spend 
Y6.010bn ($62bn) to prepare 
rice farmers for the gradual 
opening of their market 

The package, prepared by 
the three parties of the ruling 
coalition, clears the way for 
parliament to ratify the trade 
liberalisation bills needed to 
comply with the Uruguay 
Bound of the General Agree- 
ment on Tariffs and Trade. 

Japan aims to ratify the Gatt 
accord in the present parlia- 
mentary session, ending on 

December 3. As part of the 
accord, a previous government 
agreed last year to import 4-8 
per cent of its annual 10m 
tonne rice consumption over 
the next six years, mid replace 
import quotas with tariffs 
some time alter that The farm 
aid package will be spent over 
the same period. 

The aid programme was crit- 
icised yesterday for failing to 
do enough to encourage large 
efficient farms, at the expense 
of traditional small paddy 
fields. The government is bar- 
gaining that the cash will at 
least compensate farmers for 
the opening of the rice market 

Jordan ‘needs help to 
ease burden of debt’ 

By George Graham 
in Washington 

Jordan needs relief from its 
heavy foreign debt burden if it 
is to reach the kind of growth 
rates necessary to bring a real 
peace dividend to its popula- 
tion, the World Bank has 
warned in a new study of the 
impact of peace on the Jorda- 
nian economy. 

Jordan's economic reform 
programme could bring growth 
of up to 4 per cent a year, but 
the World Bank calculates the 
country needs to achieve a 
higher growth rate. 

“To really make a difference 
to high unemployment rates, 
to really cement the peace, Jor- 
dan needs around 6 per cent 
growth per year," says Mr Caio 
Koch-Weser. the World Bank's 

vice-president in charge of the 
Middle East and North Africa. 

That would require private 
investment rates of about 20 
per cent of gross domestic 
product, the report says, a rate 
which will be impossible to 
achieve so long as Jordan is 
struggling under the burden of 
more than $7bn f£4.6bn) of for- 
eign debt, roughly 1.5 times its 

"For the man in the street, 
the question is what has peace 
done for me. and that is where 
you see the urgency of doing 
something about the debt to 
make the leap from 4 to 6 per 
cent growth," Mr John Page, 
the World Bank's chief econo- 
mist for the region, says. 

To reduce Jordan's debt bur- 
den to about 75 per cent of 
GDP by 1998, the World Bank 

calculates that about $1.7bn of 
debt reduction would be 
needed. Full debt forgiveness 
of about $3Jttra in 1994 would 
greatly improve Jordan's mac- 
roeconomic outlook and “sig- 
nificantly enhance the pros- 
pects of strong popular support 
for the peace process,” the 
report says. 

The report warns that the 
economic impact of peace will 
probably be felt more slowly 
than many hope. Among the 
most important longer-term 
gains will be improved 
cooperation on water issues. 
Mr Koch-Weser warns that 
without action, all the coun- 
tries of the region face water 
shortages in the next 15-20 
years, but Jordan's water crisis 
is perhaps the most imminent. 
Frayed prospects. Page 15 

An Israeli soldier stands guard on a road between the West Bank and Jerusalem yesterday n»* 

Market in auto 
set to double 

By Kevin Done, 

Motor Industry Correspondent 

The market for automotive 
electronics is forecast to dou- 
ble from $40bn f£25.3bn) to 
$80fan a year between 1993 and 
2000. according to a report 
from the Economist Intelli- 
gence Unit 

The study suggests that the 
biggest increases will come in 
the value of navigation equip- 
ment, while the installation of 
airbags will continue to rise 
rapidly. Electronic systems are 
forecast to account for 30 per 
cent of the production cost of a 
car by 2000. 

The value of the electronics 
content of the average car has 
already quadrupled from $300 
in 1980 to $1,200 in 1990. 
According to the report, this is 
set to increase to $1. 600-31,800 
per car in 1995 and to rise fur- 
ther to $2^00-32,500 in 2000. 

The EIU study claims that 
the rise in the use of electron- 
ics in cars is being driven by 
the introduction of tougher leg- 
islation on safety, emission 
controls and vehicle security, 
as well as by technological 
developments in the electron- 
ics industry and the need by 
car makers to gain a competi- 
tive advantage. 

The value of the car electron- 
ics market worldwide is fore- 
cast to rise to $69bn-S93bn in 
2000 from $43bn-$58bn in 1995 
and 829.7bn in 1990. 

Electronic systems for 
engines, transmissions and 

chassis will remain the single 
most important market sector, 
with sales forecast to rise from 
$13bn in 1990 to S23bn in 2000. 

The biggest increase will 
come in driver information 
systems, however, where the 
value of the market is expected 
to jump from only $2bn in 1990 
to $l8bn by 2000. Navigation 
systems will be able to give 
routes and update them to take 
account of changes in traffic. 

Car radio/ cassette players 
will play an important role in 
receiving and storing traffic 
information as well as details 
of hotels, restaurants and ser- 
vice stations in an area. 

Several companies are 
already developing compo- 
nents which will increase ~ 
safety in poor light and in 
dense traffic, intruding radar, 
fog sensors, infra-red cameras, 
navigation systems and intelli- 
gent cruise control. 

The development of inexpen- 
sive radar, which is seen as 
critical to the development of 
intelligent cruise control, is 
claimed to be better than infra- 
red technology for use in colli- 
sion avoidance sensors. Smart 
cards are expected to replace 
ignition/door keys, as they will 
be able to be used as driving 
licences, to actuate roadside 
emergency telephones, and to 
allow the driver to adjust seat 
and mirror positions. 

The Electronics Revolution in 
the Motor Industry . £495. The 
EIU, 15 Regent Street, London, 

World Bank clears $150m loan 

Vietnam ‘enters 
tougher phase’ 

Chinese gear up for huge rise in cars by 2010 

By Peter Montagnon, 

Asia Editor 

Vietnam's economic 
adjustment programme is 
entering a more demanding 
phase now that relatively easy 
price reforms have been 
accomplished, the World Bank 
said yesterday. 

Announcing the approval of 
a $150m. 40-year structural 
adjustment loan, its fourth to 
Vietnam since lending 
resumed last year, the bank 
singled out restructuring of 
state banks, privatisation of 
public companies and trade 
reform as still to be tackled. 

Vietnam should also intro- 
duce further legal reform to 
provide a basic civil and com- 
mercial law code and simplify 
investment rules to facilitate 
business activity. 

The reform programme had 
produced “impressive results", 
especially since it was begun 
without real outside financial 
help. But "some weaknesses 
are evident in the reform pro- 

gramme and in the economy”. 

Vietnam remained a poor 
country with per capita income 
below $200 a year and sharp 
regional disparities in living 
standards. Weak infrastructure 
and an inefficient financial sys- 
tem hindered investment 

International donors could 
provide significant finance for 
development but the govern- 
ment would need effective 
institutions to take most 
advantage of development 

The financial sector was bur- 
dened by bad debts in state- 
owned commercial banks, poor 
accounting and management 
practices, and high taxation. 
The trade system should be 
reformed to abolish import per- 
mits and introduce a simplified 
tariff structure. 

This year Vietnam is com- 
mitted to reducing its fiscal 
deficit to 2.7 per cent of GDP 
from 52 per cent in 1993. It is 
expected to rise to 3.3 per cent 
in 1995. 

By Tony Walker and Shi 
Junbao hi Beijing 

China’s cars are projected to 
rise dramatically in numbers 
to 22m by the year 2010. with 
individual ownership increas- 
ing sharply to 60 per cent of all 
vehicles on the road, against 
less than 5 per cent at present, 
an authoritative study says. 

This predicted increase of 
car ownership and production 
in China will dearly have 
enormous implications for the 
automotive sector internation- 

The study, by a group within 
the Chinese bureaucracy called 
the Strategic Development 
Research Team of China's 

Widow to 
carry on 
poll fight 

By Stefan Wagstyf hi New 
Delhi and Reuter in Colombo 

Sri Lanka's United National 
party, the main opposition 
grouping, last night chose the 
widow of Mr Gamlni Dissanay- 
ake to be his successor as its 
candidate for next month’s 
presidential election. On Mon- 
day, along with 50 others, he 
was killed by a suicide 

The UNP, which held power 
for 17 years until its August 
election defeat, had been 
widely expected to pick Mr 
Rami Wickremasraghe, 45, the 
former premier. He led the 
UNP until the election, but 
was ousted as its leader by Mr 

Despite her lack of political 
experience. Mrs Shrima Dis- 
sanayake, a lawyer, will be a 
popular choice to run against 
Airs Kumara tonga, the ruling 
People Alliance's candidate for 
the presidency. 

A curfew imposed in Colombo 
on Monday was lifted yester- 
day but then re- Imposed for 
the night. Police fear the 
funerals of the bomb victims 
could prompt demonstrations. 

Family Car, forecast that by 
2010 China will build 3£m cars 
a year, with two-thirds of them 
being sold to private motorists. 
Total production value of the 
automotive sector will reach 
Yn420bn (£3l.6bn) a year, with 
an extra Ynl,052bn being gen- 
erated by associated industries. 

The study estimated the 
automotive sector would be 
generating YnSObn annually in 
tax revenue by 2010 and would 
have created 15m new jobs. 
“Having a family car will sig- 
nal that a Chinese citizen’s life 
has turned from a moderately 
well-to-do to a rich one," the 
study reported. 

Publication this week in the 
Economic Daily of the study 

C olombo, where Mr Gam- 
ini Dissanayake, Sri 
Lanka’s opposition 
leader, and 50 other people 
were killed by a suicide 
bomber on Monday, returned 
to normal with almost 
unseemly baste yesterday. 

The curfew imposed immedi- 
ately after the blast was lifted 
and banks, shops and offices 
were open, rt appeared that 
alter living through two politi- 
cal assassinations last year. Sri 
Lankans have grown used to 
the murder of their leaders. 

Yet deep concern exists on 
the island about the lasting 
effects of Mr Dissanayake's 
death. The fear is that the pas- 
sions aroused by the murder of 
such a popular leader will 
sooner or later come into the 
open. They might erupt into 
street violence as early as the 
funerals which begin today 
and end with Mr Dissanayake's 
state funeral on Saturday. 

Or they could linger and 
affect politics and society in 
more subtle but equally disrup- 
tive ways. “People may not 
show it, but they are very dis- 
tressed," Mr Neelan Tiruchel- 
vam, a Colombo lawyer, says. 

The public distress is acute 
because it has come at a time 
of unprecedented hope about 
Sri Lanka's future, engendered 

China's spending on 
infrastructure would be about 
$500bn (£316bn) over the next 
decade, Mr Liu Zhongli, the 
country’s finance minister, 
told an Asian Development 
Bank-sponsored conference In 
Beqing. writes Tony Walker. 

coincides with a debate within 
the Chinese bureaucracy about 
the desirability of increased 
private car ownership. Mr He 
Guangyuan, minister of 
machinery industry warned 
this week against the danger of 
"old attitudes” to car owner- 
ship hindering development. 
"If we can't see how necessary 
it is for car-ownership to 

by the efforts of Mrs Chandrika 
K uma r atlins, the newly elected 
prime minister, to end the 
island’s civil war. 

Mrs Kumaratunga, who took 
power in August after 17 years’ 
rule by Mr Dissanayake's 
United National party, started 
talks with the Tamil “Tigers", 
fighting for an independent 
Tamil homeland. As Mr Tiru- 
chelvam, a Tamil, says: “In Sri 
Lanka we swing quickly from 
optimism to despair. Now we 
are in despair”. 

The key question is the 
impact of the assassinations on 
the peace effort Even though 
the police have little evidence 
linking the attack to the 
“Tigers", the general assump- 
tion in Colombo is that they 
carried it out 

The “Tigers" have denied 
responsibility for the assassi- 
nations, but their denial.*; carry 
little weight in Colombo. The 
security forces believe that 
only the “Tigers" command the 
fierce loyalty and access to 
high-quality explosives needed 
to organise a suicide bombing. 

The “Tigers" have been 
linked to two deadly suicide 

Mr Liu said that to meet 
China’s huge requirements 
more funds would be raised 
internationally, either through 
bond issues or from loans 
provided by international 
financia l institutions and 
foreign governments. 

become widespread and don’t 
actively support a private car 
market, it would be hard for 
car-making to become a pillar 
industry," he told the China 
Business Times newspaper. 

Rapid development of the 
automotive sector is meeting 
opposition from bureaucrats 
who see car ownership as bour- 
geois. Sections of government 

attacks, on Mr Rajiv Gandhi, 
the then fodfan prime minis- 
ter, in 1991, and Mr Rana- 
singhe Premadasa, the Sri Lan- 
kan president killed last year. 

In the weeks since her elec- 
tion victory, Mrs Kumaratunga 
had built broad-based support 
among the majority Sinhalese 
in favour of peace talks, but it 
seems certain this week's 
as sassinat ions will undermine 
this consensus, though It is dif- 
ficult to say by how much. 

“The conditions for the peace 
talks were favourable. Now 
there mil be great suspicion 
about the guerrillas’ good 
faith. This is one of the worst 
consequences of the act," a 
Colombo-based diplomat says. 

Mrs Kumaratunga hag pru- 
dently postponed talks 
between government and 
Tamil representatives which 
started two weeks ago and 
were in progress near Jaffna, 
the Tamil stronghold in the 
north. She will now face calls 
for a long delay and for outr 
right cancellation. Army offi- 
cers, who claimed the govern- 
ment had made too many 
concessions, will now find it 

fear China’s infrastructure 
would be unable to cope with 
so many cars on an over taxed 
road system. 

China recently unveiled a 
new car industry policy that 
envisages the establishment of 
three or four car manufactur- 
ing conglomerates by 2000, 
engaged In the mass produc- 
tion of family sedans. The pol- 
icy instituted a freeze on new 
manufacturers entering China 
until 1996 to enable present 
operators to build up strength. 

Volkswagen, In partnership 
with tiie Shanghai Automotive 
Industry Corporation, is Chi- 
na’s biggest maker of passen- 
ger cars. In 1993 it built 100,000 
Santanas, a medium-sized lam- 

easier to criticise her. 

A crucial test of public opin- 
ion will come in the presiden- 
tial election due to be held on 
November 9 in which Mr Dis- 
sanayake was challenging Mrs 
Kumaratunga. Mrs Kumara- 
tunga had been expected to 
win, despite a strong campaign 
by Mr Dissanayake. His death 
should generate some sympa- 
thy votes for his party and 
votes from those wanting to 
protest at talks with the rebels. 

But the UNP could lose the 
support of Mr S. Thort daman, 
the powerful and politically 
volatile leader of the tea estate 
workers' union, wooed away 
from Mrs Kumaratunga by Mr 
Dissanayake but who could 
now swing his support back to 
the premier. 

On balance, Mrs Kumara- 
tunga is still expected to win 
because the UNP lacks another 
candidate of Mir Dissanayake's 
stature. An unmnphatic victory 
could stall the talks. Mr Des- 
mond Fernando, a lawyer, 
says: “I fear there could be a 
string against compromise". 

Sri Lanka has learned to live 
with political violence, espe- 

tiv car, out of a total of 234,000 
sedans made throughout 
China, which plans to be prod- 
ucing I -35m passenger cars a 
year by 2000. with 90 per cent 
of the market supplied from 
local production. Output would 
rise to i5m-4m units by the 
year 2010. 

From 1979 to 1993 the num- 
ber of cars in China grew from 
150,000 to 1.4m. of which 50,000 
are privately owned. Cars 
owned by mdividuals or fami- 
lies will amount to about 20 
per cent of total cars on the 
road in China in 3000. 

Percentages of individual car 
ownership would rise to 40 per 
cent in 2005 and 60 per cent in 
2010 . 

dally in the past 18 months, 
which have seen three assassi- 
nation attacks. Neither the 
death of President Premadasa, 
nor of Mr Laiith Athulatimm- 
dati, an opposition leader, pro- 
voked civil unrest or much 
social or economic disruption. 
Western tourists, sensitive to 
political violence, have contin- 
ued to come to Sri Lanka. 

This time too, expectations 
are that little damage will be 
done to the economy. The Col- 
ombo Stock Exchange's all- 
share index fell by 31.74 points, 
2.85 per cent, yesterday to 
1,081.27, but stockbrokers said 
this was a reflex reaction. The 
economy remains strong and 
likely to meet the govern- 
ment's target of 6 per cent 
growth in gross domestic prod- 
uct this year, after a 69 per 
cent increase in 1993. 

Mr Kishan Vairawanathan. a 
manager at the Colombo office 
of Crosby Securities, the Hong 
Kong investment broker, says: 
"A feeling of optimism has 
been shattered. That accounts 
for the falL But I think the 
market will now stabilise ", But 
much, will depend on the 
run-up to the presidential elec- 
tion and its outcome. If Mrs 
Kumaratunga fares badly, the 
hopes of peace vested in her 
may Cade too. 


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• established blue chip customer base In automobile and 
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• long established product fines 
■ business established In 1 847 

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Sri Lanka fears passions will erupt 

Peace hopes are in doubt during run-up to 
poll for president, Stefan Wagstyl reports 








0 • 








EU’s export 
credit rules 
seen as threat 

Perot group in pledge 
drive against Gatt deal 

By David Buchan m Paris 

Brussels' plans to harmonise 
export credit within the Euro- 
pean Union risk imposing 
extra delay and red tape on 
European exporters just when 
they face fiercer competition 
from the DS, the leading 
Flench credit agency warned 

Mr Francois David, president 
of Coface, the newly privatised 
agency which underwrites a 
quarter of French exports, said 
it was “not absurd to have a 
common export credit policy”. 
This, he said, was particularly 
the case when some of 
Europe’s fading exporters 
were transnational companies, 
such as the four-nation Airbus 
consortium, or the Franco-Brit- 
ish venture of GEC-Alsthom, 
and where in the absence of 
harmonisation the risk appre- 
ciation of different EU insurers 
was very different. 

“But exporters often already 
find it difficult to get a credit 
at the national level,” Mr 
David said, predicting that har- 
monisation at the EU level 
would create farther delay 
with credit offers evaluated by 
“people [in Brussels} who 
might not be experienced and 
who might introduce political 
arbitrage among the Twelve 
[member states F- The US and 
Japan “would be happy to see 
Europe put itself Into another 
straitjacket", he said. 

In July the European Com- 
mission proposed “common 
principles far guarantees and 
premiums in the area of state- 

supported medium and long 
term credit insurance” with 
greater transparency in the 
geographic coverage of differ- 
ent EU credit policies. 

At the time, the Commission 
denied that the plan would 
impose "a straxtjacket cm the 
member states and their agen- 
cies”. saying it would allow 
assurers “considerable leeway 
to diverge from the principles 
laid down, provided they 
inform the Commission and 
other member states”. 

A senior Commission official 
said yesterday that the plan, 
which still has to win approval 
by the Council of Ministers, 
emerged out of guidelines 
prepared by a group of 
national officials from the 

A former head of Aerospa- 
tiale's international division, 
Mr David complained that 
Washington was mounting a 
"di ploma ti co-commercial offen- 
sive without precedent" in sup- 
port of its aerospace, military 
and agriculture exports. 

Be died a recent seven-year 
credit on a US wheat sale to 
Morocco, noting that credits 
were supposed to match the 
lifetime of a product or project, 
and President Bill Clinton’s 
overt involvement in last Feb- 
ruary's $6bn worth of Boeing 
aircraft to Saudi Arabia. 

This newly aggressive policy 
meant that the US now 
accounted for 30 per cent of the 
world total of export credit of 
more than five years maturity, 
compared to only 15 per cent 
three years ago, Mr David said. 

Senators Laulenberg (top) and 
Wofford: believed to have 
signed Perot’s pledge 

The 125 participants in the 
Uruguay Round of trade talks 
yesterday reaffirmed their 
intention to establish the 
World Trade Organisation on 
January 1 next year by setting 
a December date for the formal 
implementation conference 
that must give the go-ahead. 

The decision, by the WTO 
preparatory committee in 
Geneva, rests an the assump- 
tion that the leading traders - 
the US, the European Union 

By Nancy Dunne 
In Washington 

United We Stand, the network 
of activist citizens groups 
established by Mr Ross Perot, 
the Texas billionaire, has 
launched a far-reaching drive 
to get House and Senate candi- 
dates to sign a pledge to delay 
passage of the Uruguay Round 
implementing legislation. 

They are claiming two suc- 
cesses thus far Senator Frank 
Lautenberg, a New Jersey dem- 
ocrat, and Senator Harris Wof- 
ford, a Democrat for Pennsyl- 
vania. Both have in their states 
large numbers of blue collar 
voters, who are inclined to 
view trade liberalisation with 

Administration vote count- 
ers believe they have the 
votes to pass the legislation 
this year. But they are nervous 
about the anti-Gatt efforts and 
are urging US businesses to 
intensify their lobbying efforts 
as the mid-term elections 

and Japan - will ratify by the 
time of the implementation 
conference on December 8. 
Only 30 nations have ratified 
so far but 50 more are pledged 
to do so by the end of the 

Ratification has been held up 
partly because many countries 
are waiting for the US, EU and 
Japan to do so, while they in 
turn have run into difficulties. 

There are no formal condi- 
tions for bringing the WTO - 
and the rest of the Uruguay 
Round global trade accords - 

approaches. One official, who 
has been on the campaign 
trail, said the anti-Nafta forces 
- populists on the left and 
right - have now “coalesced" 
behind the Gait 

United We Stand headquar- 
ters in Dallas, Texas, has rec- 
ommended that local groups 
urge consideration of the legis- 
lation in January “to allow for 
a foil and open debate of Gatt/ 
WTO’s impact on jobs and sov- 

This would make impossible 
the proposed launch of the 
World Trade Organisation by 
January 1 1995. 

Mr Perot ran as an indepen- 
dent candidate for president in 
1992 and is expected to run 
again. He took the lead against 
the North American Free 
Trade Agreement, debating 
Vice President A1 Gore and in 
a performance widely seen as 
hurting his cause. 

In this battle, Mr Perot has 
thrown the thousands of 
citizen activists who still flock 

into effect. But by common 
consent the ratifications must 
Include the so-called Quad 
group of the four biggest trad- 
ers - the US, EU, Japan and 
Canada - plus a broad spread 
of smaller trading nations. 

In the US, the lame-duck 
Congress will return for a spe- 
cial session to vote on the Uru- 
guay Round implementing leg- 
islation after the November 8 
mid-term elections. 

In the EU, ratification has 
been delayed by a dispute over 
the powers of the executive 

to his banner. Although be has 
recommended that they vote 
for Republicans, Democrats in 
tight races might well be 
inclined to take up the 
anti-Gatt pledge in the hope of 
gaining - or at least 
neutralising - opponents’ 
ad vanta ges 

The “Perotistas’” pledge does 
not ask for outright opposition 
to the Gatt deal. Instead 
opponents are asking that 
Congress “honour its own 
budget responsibilities and 
provide foil funding for any 
law it passes” a feat which has 
been deemed politically 

The administration was 
unable to raise the $40bn in 
programme cuts or tax 
increases, required under 
Senate budget rales, to pay for 
lost tariff revenue over 10 
years. It found funding for the 
first five years but it is being 
forced to ask for a waiver of 
the Senate rale, which would 
require 60 votes. 

European Commission to 
speak for member states on all 
matters dealt with by the 
WTO. The European Court of 
Justice is due to pronounce on 
the issue on November 15, 
after which Brussels hopes rap- 
idly to conclude the legislative 

Meanwhile, in Japan last 
weekend's government deci- 
sion to grant hefty compensa- 
tion to rice formas for ending 
the ban on rice imparts has 
paved the way for ratification 
in the Diet 

Effort to push ahead with WTO 

By Frances UfltBams in Geneva 

Canada sends 400-strong trade mission to China 

By Bernard Simon tn Toronto 

The rivalry among industrial 
countries to promote commercial ties 
with China will reach a new pitch 
next month when Mr Jean Chretien, 
Canada's prime minister, leads a mis- 
sion of almost 400 business leaders, 
politicians and officials to Beijing. 

The mission's ambitious scope is 
partly, designed to deflect business.. 

criticism that Ottawa has been 
slower than many other western gov- 
ernments to recognise China's com- 
mercial poten tial. Canadian exports 
to China, totalling C$L7bn ($1.25bnl 
In 1993, have stagnated in recent 
years. But imports have risen rap- 
idly, reaching C$3.1bn last year. 

Companies represented on the mis- 
sion range from banks, law firms and 
securities dealers, to metal produc- 

ers, retailers and power utilities. 

Besides Mr Chretien, the mission 
will include the premiers of nine of 
Canada’s ten provinces. The only 
absentee will be Mr Jacques Pari- 
zean. who heads the newly elected 
separatist government in Quebec. 

The group will be in Beijing and 
Shanghai from November 6 to 10. It 
wifi also visit Bong Song and Viet- 
nam. According to one organiser, the 

mission will be used to announce 
35-40 trade and investment deals 
worth about Cglbn, all at an 
“advanced” stage of negotiations. 

The two governments are expected 
to sign a nuclear co-operation agree- 
ment. Atomic Energy of Canada 
hopes the accord will be a “door- 
opener” for sales of its Candn heavy- 
water reactors. 

There is also to be a progress 

report on a venture between Ameri- 
can Barrick Resources, the Toronto- 
based gold producer. Power Corpora- 
tion, the Montreal investment hold- 
ing company, and the China National 
Gold Corporation to accelerate devel- 
opment of the gold-mining industry. 
The Barrick-Power partnership has 
began a pre-feasibility study of a 
deposit in Liaoning province, and is 
discussing further projects. 


Manila wants 
only top banks 

Foreign banks that will be allowed into the Philippines under 
the country's liberalisation programme will be chosen from 
among the world's top 150 banks only, according to newly 
issued guidelines from the monetary authorities. A total of 31 
foreign banks have signified interest in setting up shop in the 
country. Only 10 will be allowed to open full-service branches, 
although others may acquire up to 60 per cent or existing 

Mr Gabriel Singson, bead of the central bank and its policy- 
setting Monetary Board, says the selection should be com- 
pleted in early 1995. Under the law. six of the 10 banks will be 
selected by the Monetary Board, while the other four will be 
picked by the Philippine president. The foil-service banks will 
be required to put up a minimum permanently assigned capi- 
tal ol 210m pesos ($5.lml. They can open up to three branches 
in any location, and another three in areas to be designated by 
the Monetary Board. The guidelines provide Lite home 
country of the applicant bank should extend “reciprocity 
rights” to Philippine banks. Jose Galong. Manila 

Spain and Germany talk tanks 

Spain and Germany have begun talks on equipping the Span- 
ish army with Leopard 2 tanks, potentially worth several 
hundred million dollars. Defence officials in Madrid empha- 
sised yesterday, however, that the choice of a new tank to 
succeed US and French models was “not closed”. Proposals 
under discussion between the two defence ministries would 
involve assembly in Spain and use of locally made compo- 
nents. This would require an agreement with the Leopard's 
manufacturer, Krauss-MafTci. The German company, con- 
trolled by the Mannesmann group, won a deal worth almost 
SSOOm with Sweden earlier this year to supply 120 Leopard 2 
tanks, with an option for 80 more. David White, Madrid 

Japan to curb pirate chips 

Japan will strengthen controls on imports of semiconductors 
with illegally copied integrated circuits (IC-s), officials at the 
Ministry of International Trade and Industry and the Finance 
Ministry said. The government has submitted a bill to parlia- 
ment which would make it possible for a company claiming 
rights over the ICs to stop imports of semiconductors at 
customs. Reuter. Tokyo 

Railway planned for Tibet 

Initial preparatory work has started on building a railway to 
Tibet, the only province or region of China not connected to 
the national network, the deputy chairman of Tibet's Planning 
Committee said. Reuter Beijing 


■ Chantiers de TAtlantique, shipbuilding subsidiary of GEC- 
Alsthom, has received an order from Royal Caribbean Cruises 
for two 1,000-cabin cruise ships. The order for the second ship 
is subject to confirmation before tbe end of May 1995. The 
ships will have diesel-electric propulsion systems. They are 
due to be delivered in April 1997 and April 1998. Andrew 
Baxter . . London 

■Korean Air Lines said it has signed a contract with Airbus 
Industrie to supply fuselage panels for 400 Airbus A330/A340 
aircraft from next year to 2002. Tbe deal was valued at 513m. 
KAL also won an Airbus contract in 1988 to supply panels for 
600 aircraft, a company spokesman said. Reuter, Seoul 



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26 1994 


Consumer confidence 
shows fresh dip in US 

By George Graham 

In Washington 

Consumer confidence 
weakened again this month 
while new data on employment 
costs showed wage inflation 
still very subdued, helping to 
offset the impression created 
by economic statistics last 
week that the US economy was 
about to accelerate again. 

The Conference Board, a 
New York-based business 
organisation whose survey of 
consumer confidence is widely 
watched, said its index dropped 
this month by two points to 
87.6 per cent. This is the fourth 
monthly drop in succession, 
but the board said the index 
had still fallen by a total of less 
than 5 points from its peak in 

Mr Fabian Linden, executive 
director of tbe board's con- 
sumer research centre, said the 
survey suggested “continued 
economic growth in the 
months ahead. Respondents to 
the survey said they were more 
worried about job prospects 

US consumer confidence 

Index, 1985 =100 

SD lmii ii iMnuunmu j 

1993 94 

Source: DataouaBftt 

and less optimistic about their 
own financial situation than in 
previous months.” 

Although the decline in the 
confidence index has been 
modest, it was much larger 
than economic forecasters had 
anticipated, and served to 
dampen concern that the econ- 
omy might again be showing 
signs of overheating. That con- 
cern was fuelled last week by 
strong housing starts data. 

Data on sales of existing homes 
published yesterday showed 
more weakness, though sales 
still rose 1 per cent In Septem- 

The Labour Department said 
its employment cost index rose 
by just 0-7 per cent in the July 
to September quarter, after ris- 
ing 0.9 per cent in the second 
quarter and 0.8 per cent in the 
first. This left the annual rate 
of increase in employment 
costs stable at 3.2 per cent, the 
slowest rate since the index 
began in 1982 and arguably the 
slowest in the last 30 years. 

Wages and salaries rose by 
0.8 per cent in the third quar- 
ter. producing an annual 
increase of 2£ per cent, but 
benefits, including health 
insurance, rose by l.l per cent 
in the quarter for an annual 
increase of 4-0 per cent 

The Labour Department said 
wage increases in major collec- 
tive bargaining agreements 
signed in private industry dur- 
ing the July to September 
period averaged 1.9 per cent a 

Sanctions prove a thorny 
issue in US-Cuba talks 

By Pascal Fletcher in Havana 

Punitive sanctions slapped on 
Cuba by Washington in 
August have emerged as a 
point of contention In US-Cn- 
ban talks which opened in 
Havana on Monday. 

Tbe talks, which end today, 
are intended to review a 45- 
day-old bilateral immigration 
accord under which the US 
agreed to increase the number 
of US entry visas granted to 
Cubans each year to a mini- 
mom of 20,000, This is to be 
done through accelerated visa 
processing, expanded criteria 
for refugee status and a visa 
lottery to begin November 1. 

Mr Dennis Hays, the US del- 

egation leader, said restric- 
tions on flights and dollar 
cash remittances to Cuba 
announced by President Clin- 
ton on August 20 were not 
part of the immigration issue. 
“They will not be dealt with at 
this time,” he said. 

Cuba took the opposite tack 
arguing that the August pack- 
age of sanctions contravened 
the spirit of the bilateral 
immigration accord signed on 
September 9 in New York. 

The US sanctions “have as 
much to do with the accord 
and immigration as the air 
that we breathe,” said Mr 
Ricardo AJarcdn. Cuba's chief 
negotiator. “If yon want nor- 
mal, Orderly immigration, you 





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Tools Limited 

The Jomi Artrunlstiotlva Receivers. DovkJ Stokes and Michael Moore, 
otter tor sole foe business and assets ot this well known Birmingham 
manufacturer at Precision Engineering Cutting Toots. 

Principal fearures of the business include: 

• turnover ol £ 800.000 

• BstobMsfwa blue chip customer base In automobile and 
aerospace industries 

■ long established product lines 

• business established in 1 847 

• Highly stalled and experienced wortdarce 

• CAD/CAM facilities. 

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■n LuJ.iniJ 4nd \\a(e% to cam Mn InticMiivcni Buscocv- 

should not create obstacles to 
it,” said Mr Alarcdn, president 
of Cuba's national assembly. 

Havana had hoped the immi- 
gration accord might lead to a 
wider dialogue on ways of 
solving the US-Cuban conflict 

Mr Clinton introduced the 
latest sanctions against Cuba 
in August after Cuba's Presi- 
dent Mr Fidel Castro, tempo- 
rarily lifted restrictions on 
Cubans fleeing illegally in 
boats and flimsy rafts to the 

Some 32,000 refugees, barred 
access to the US in a sadden 
change of policy by Washing- 
ton, were sent to US bases in 
Guantanamo Bay in eastern 
Cuba and in Panama. 





By Damian Fraser 
in Mexico City 

Mr Manuel Tello, Mexico’s 
foreign minister, has warned 
that approval by the state of 
California of a proposal to 
curb illegal immigrants’ 
access to education and 
healthcare would damage US- 
Mexican relations. 

Mr Manuel Tello urged that 
proposition 187 - known as 
save our state - be rejected 
when it comes up for vote in 
the state on November 8. He 
indicated Mexico would back a 
constitutional challenge to the 
proposition were it approved 
by Californian voters. 

The proposition, which 
appears from opinion polls to 
enjoy the support of a major- 
ity of Californians, would deny 
education and non-emergency 
healthcare to illegal immi- 
grants and their families. It 
has caused a furore in Mexico, 
the main source of illegal 
immigration to the US. Some 
border cities have sought to 
boycott US goods in protest at 
the measure. 

Mr Tello said the proposi- 
tion would “contaminate” bi- 
lateral relations along the bor- 
der. He said trying to deny 
basic services to the children 
of undocumented immigrants 
would create the figure of a 
“big brother that is watching 
over you.” 

Mexico’s ambassador to the 
US, Mr Jorge Montaho, voiced 
similar concerns. 

Mario Cuomo during easier times at a Democratic Party convention in 1992 

Enemy camp aids Hamlet of the Hudson 

Jurek Martin on Cuomo’s battle to win a fourth term as New York state’s governor 

There is no patented 
single method of rising 
to the top of politics in 
New York, city and 
state. Name and money 
help (FDR, Harriman 
and Rockefeller were all 
governors) as do sheer 
chutzpah (exemplified 
by La Guardia and 
Koch as mayors) and 
brains (Senator Daniel 
US mid-term Moynihau). But most of 
ELECTIONS ^ time there is no sub- 
November a stitute for a sheer sense 

of larger-than-life 

drama. Not for nothing is Mr Mario 
Cuomo, the Democratic governor in 
pursuit of a fourth term, known as the 
Hamlet of the Hudson for his musings 
on the meaning of life and his own 

There is now, indisputably, a pre- 
tender to that title and a new leading 
man on the state stage. The only ques- 
tion is whether Mr Rudolph Giuliani, 
the popular Republican mayor of New 
York City who endorsed the unpopular 
Mr Cuomo on Monday afternoon, will 
come to be seen as a Fortinbras, who 
inherited Denmark after Hamlet, or as a 
s cheming I ago with bis own agenda. 

There are two important sub-plots in 
Mr Giuliani's decision. The most obvi- 
ous centres on the bitter enmity 
between the mayor and Mr A1 D 'Amato. 

the Republican senator from New York 
whose hand-picked candidate, the hith- 
erto obscure Mr George PatakL is ahead 
of Mr Cuomo in the governor’s race. In 
1989. Mr Guiliani blamed his narrow 
defeat for mayor by Mr David Dinkins 
on the senator’s backing of another con- 
servative candidate. 

Stemming from that, and advanced 
both by Mr Giuliani and by a relieved 
New York Times editorial yesterday, is 
the mayor's calculation his perennially 
financiall y strapped city would receive 
more sympathetic treatment from Mr 
Cuomo than it would from a Governor 
Pataki whose campaign message is to 
lower both taxes and spending. 

The Giuliani assessment was con- 
cisely expressed. He said Mr Cuomo, 
who has increased state funding for the 
city, loved and understood it and did 
not make promises he could not fulfil. 
In contrast Mr Pataki had “almost uni- 
formly voted against the interests of the 
city and often the metropolitan region.” 
But most telling, and most aimed at 
Senator D’ Amato and Mr Pataki, some- 
times scathingly labelled Gepetto and 
Pinocchio. were the words: “Mario 
Cuomo is his own man. I prefer dealing 
with someone who is his own man. 
even if we disagree on some important 

Democratic joy at the Giuliani 
endorsement knew no bounds. Mr 
Cuomo described his decision, natu- 

rally, as “extremely intelligent and cou- 
rageous." President Bill Clinton called 
the mayor from Cleveland to express 
his appreciation. Republican fury, 
replete with allegations of treachery, 
was of a comparable scale. Mr D’ Amato 
declared: “Rudy Giuliani is wrong." 

Clearly, much depends on whether or 
not the Giuliani seal of approval res- 
cues Mr Cuomo. The New York Post 
poll yesterday gave Mr Pataki a 44-36 
point lead, with 11 per cent undecided 
and nearly 7 per cent going for Mr 
Thomas Golisano, a conservative pro- 
life independent candidate. 

The rough rule of thumb is the gover- 
nor needs about two-thirds of the city 
vote to offset the Pataki advantage in 
conservative upstate areas. Mr Giuli- 
ani’s popularity in his bailiwick should 
help. One poll found 11 per cent of the 
city inclined to follow his recommenda- 

The mayor has seemed for some time 
to be ed g in g towards a Cuomo endorse- 
ment frequently appearing with him at 
notionally non-political events. He had 
met the Republican candidate only once 
in the campaign, and reported coolly on 
their discussion, yet he was more com- 
plimentary after longer sessions with 
Mr Golisano, who is competing for the 
same votes on tbe right as Mr PatakL 

Os the other hand, Mr Cuomo, along 
with Senator Edward Kennedy of Mas- 
sachussetts the nation’s most promi- 

nent liberal Democrat, has appeared 
very vulnerable. Not only was the con- 
servative anti-incumbent tide washing 
a gains t him, but the length of his ten- 
ure and his persistent refusal to take a 
national job on the Supreme Court or in 
the Clinton cabinet left many New 
Yorkers with the impression he would 
have to be winkled out of office. 

But the inevitable, though not neces- 
sarily accurate, talk of the town yester- 
day was as much on the mayor's ambi- 
tions beyond his city. With Senator 
Moynihan certain of re-election on 
November 8, the next state-wide open- 
ings are 4 yeans away in the next gover- 
norship race and Mr D‘ Amato's seat. 

It would be easier for the mayor to 
succeed Mr Cuomo after 16 years than 
Mr Pataki after four. A race against Mr 
D'Amato would whet every appetite for 
political blood, but the Senator's con- 
trol or the state Republican party is 
such that challenging him in a primary 
would be tough. But tbe trend of the 
times favours independent candidates 
and tbe mayor has, at a stroke, shown 
independence from his own party. 

No mayor of New York this century 
has won higher elective office, though 
several have tried. Thus Mr Giuliani's 
statement on Monday can also be taken 
at face value • that he was not thinking 
about hims elf but following his own 
intuitions and sense of what was best 
for New York. 

Local version of privatisation planned in wake of stabilisation success 

Bolivia’s way to shed state sector 

By Stephen Rdter, 

Latin America Editor 

In government offices In the 
centre of La Paz. the lights are 
burning late. Fifteen months 
into the four-year presidency of 
Mr Gonzalo Sanchez de 
Losada, officials are working 
furiously on the details of a 
project they hope will chan ge 
the shape of the Bolivian econ- 

The project aims at transfer- 
ring to the private sector state 
enterprises together responsi- 
ble for about one-eighth of eco- 
nomic activity. 

The process is not being 
called privatisation. Opinion 
polls, says Mr Edgar Sara via, a 
senior government official, 
showed that Bolivians associ- 
ate privatisation with a loss of 
national sovereignty and cor- 

The Bolivian version - called 
capitalisation - aims to skirt 
these perceived objections. It 
proposes bringing in foreign 
investors to take a strategic 
equity stake in the six enter- 
prises. and then a distribution 
of up to 50 per cent of the 
remaining shares to tbe esti- 
mated 3.8m adult Bolivians. 
These shares will be placed in 
special pension accounts to be 
drawn on an annuity basis 
when the holders turn 60. 

For a country where only 
350.000 people - 5 per cent of 
the population - have bank 
accounts, this is an ambitious 
undertaking. But the govern- 
ment believes it necessary to 
lift economic growth to levels 
which will start to have an 
impact on poverty. The coun- 
try is the poorest in the west- 

ern hemisphere after Haiti and, 
according to the World Bank, 
about 70 per cent of the popula- 
tion are poor - living on less 
than 3 dollar a day. 

Bolivia was one of the first 
countries in Latin America to 
introduce a successful eco- 
nomic stabilisation plan to 
bring down inflation. In 1985, 
while planning minister, Mr 
Sanchez de Losada introduced 
the programme to attack 
annual Inhation of over 23.000 
per cent. Inflation has come 
down - to a forecast 6-8-7 .3 per 
cent this year from 9.1 per cent 
last But growth, while mostly 
positive - it should reach 4.5 
per cent this year - has not 
been enough to affect poverty 

Unlike most of its regional 
neighbours, Bolivia failed to 
follow its stabilisation plan 
with privatisations and other 
reforms of its economic struc- 

This has meant, the govern- 
ment reasons, inadequate 
investment and therefore slow 
growth. Public sector invest- 
ment at 9 per cent of GDP has 
been higher than In most Latin 
American economies. But 
according to a World Bank 
report completed this month: 
“For the most part, these pub- 
lic resources have been misal- 
located and invested ineffi- 
ciently." Private sector 
investment has been r unning 

at a weak 5 per cent of GDP. 

The aim is to use capitalisa- 
tion to develop the productive 
and export potential particu- 
larly of the energy and mining 
sectors, and to triple private 
sector investment. With public 
investment falling to around 5 

Sanchez de Losada: ‘all bets' 

per cent, the overall invest- 
ment rate of 20 per cent or 
more should help to accelerate 

There are difficulties with 
the capitalisation approach. 
Unlike in a privatisation where 
government revenues are 
boosted in the initial years, 
capitalisation implies 
short-term costs for the gov- 
ernment, because it receives no 
revenues. This and other 
reforms will boost the budget 
deficit next year and in 1996. 

According to an agreement 
signed in Washington last 
week with the International 
Monetary Fund, tbe deficit will 
widen to 4.4 per cent of GDP 
next year, from an estimated 
3.3 per cent this year, and tn 
1996 it will widen further. 

The government hopes that 
the sales of the stakes to stra- 
tegic investors will be com- 
pleted by July next year. To be 
capitalised are: 

• YPFB, the state oil com- 
pany, which accounts for about 
9 per cent of GDP. Its greatest 
resources are gas rather than 
oil, output of which has been 
telling slowly since the 1970s. 
The company's valuation will 
be boosted substantially - per- 
haps by two to three times - if 
potential investors perceive 
that preliminary agreements to 
export gas to northern Chile 
and Brazil will come to fruition 
soon. It could receive a capital 
injection of more than $lbn, 
according to same private esti- 

• Entel, the long-distance 
telephone carrier. It connects 
280,000 telephone lines - most 
run by regionally-based co-op- 
eratives. This could, the gov- 
ernment estimates, rise to 
more than lm by the year 2003. 
Revenues have grown 70. per 
cent in the past five years to 
SiOlm last year. 

• ENDE, the state electricity 
company, and the first to be 
capitalised. It generates -more 
than a half of Bolivia’s electric- 
ity. The country’s market is 
small - currently there is 
760MW of installed capacity - 
but it is hoped that the possi- ' 
bility of generating electricity 
to the country’s neighbours 
will entice investors. 

• ENFE. the state railway 
company. It could be split into 
three or left as a single entity. 
The government may leave it 
open to allow bidders for one, 
two or three entities. The lines 
are likely to remain formally 
in state hands and handed over 
in 99-year concessions to the 
operating companies. 

• LAB, the state-run airline. 
This is not going to he the easi- 

est capitalisation: a seminar to 
orientate potential investors 
was cancelled when only three 
showed interest in turning up. 
• ENAF. smelters and associ- 
ated mines. This is essentially 
what is left of the Bolivian 
state mining operations that 
once dominated the economy. 
The aim is to capitalise the 
smelters and offer leases on 
associated mines, which can- 
not be sold without changing 
the constitution. 

After promising an early 
start to capitalisation, Mr San- 
chez de Losada got bogged 
down with other legislation. 
An overall capitalisation law 
was passed, but six more 
important pieces of legislation 
are needed for privatisation, 
including a law establishing a 
regulatory system for the com- 
panies. electricity, telecommu- 
nications, and hydrocarbons 
laws, a tax reform law. and a 
revised mining code. 

Despite trouble this month 
with his governing coalition, 
the US-educated president 
appears to have secured for 
himself the necessary majority 
in both houses of Congress to 
pass the legislation. There is a 
lot riding on capitalisation, 
and the president knows it. 
“All my bets are placed on it 
Fm a goner if it doesn't work," 
he said in an interview last 


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10 s Sttcn* 

1 "'.Lh,.'-' 

Southern Africa eyes prize of peace 

I f the 60m people of 
southern Africa were capa- 
ble Of COQeCtlvdy ero gaing 

tteir fingers,. and uttering a 
sflent prayer, they would be 
doing so this week. 

The outcome of Mozambi- 
que's elections and Angola's 
peace talks will determine 
wh e t h e r the region can, for the 
first time in three 
secure peace. 

Here, in the two countries 
where the old southern Africa 
was bom same 400 years ago, 
the final stages in the shaping 
of the new southern Africa are 
taking place. 

It was on the coasts of 
Angola and Mozambique that 

•'/.Oil SUi 

da Gama and Bartolomeu Dias 
laid claim to an African empire 
which was to last until 1974. 
That year the foundations of 
white rule began to crack, for 
the coop in Lisbon in 1974 not 
only paved the way to indepen- 
dence for Portugal's African 
colonies, it marked the begin- 
ning of the end for minority 
regimes in Rhodesia and South 
Africa. The days ahead now 
see the final phase of that pro- 
cess, which has been hastened 
by the collapse of communism 
and the end of superpower 

In Mozambique, 6-5m voters 
go to the polls to m or row and 
Friday in the country’s first 
multi-party elections. If they 
proceed without mishap, the 
country can begin to develop 
an economy shattered by civil 
conflict and external aggres- 

In Angola, tflUrw awn ad at 
bringing an end to the civil 
war may be within reach of 
success, according to Mr Bout- 
ros Boutros Ghali, United 
Nations secretary-general. 

Should Mr Jonas Savimbi, 
the Unita leader who forced 
the collapse of the 1991 settle- 
ment when he refused to 
accept his defeat by President 
Eduardo das Santos In the elec- 
tion the following year, agree 
to the terms negotiated over 
the past nine months In the 
Zambian capital Lusaka, the 
last piece of the regional settle- 
ment fells into place. 

And if both Mozambique and 
Angola manage to secure a 
lasting peace in the critical 
days ahead. It would mark a 
watershed for the region, led 
today by newly . democratic 
South Africa. 

The events that shaped a new southern Africa 

Rfonfee, ntadhpAngala amt 

;■ W?4 . Pbrttjgafc tScSsuxstop ousted. 

1978 Pwlugtf cedes Mepeadance to ■ 

cotortee, mdfutfino Angofa and ' . . 

tolly IBBta. FcmgunBfl«t and girt ware 

■ breakout. South Mfcan troop* invade 
. AngafccCubs bagtos troop buSd-up. 

• ram.-itoeKTttlquekdasB&baRkK^ 
Hhodiwb, where wtfie mtoorty h*t 

■ unStt^dKl^fndapaKlcm 

Britain *-1905 . • 

1S» GuertBfl vw ft Rhodesia escaJstss 
« feHDBsled by Robert Uugabe and 
. Joahwltksira.toftttdefinn bases in 
MiEwttftiuoflrKjZarttfflL - 
i#W LrtwdtoHoiteawrttkimantan 

wwjverti Portugal 
brought Angdtan 

RxrdfuaoBWMMy fbr the independent 
axtmot Tmaobmat «|ectfcx» In 1980 won 
tyMuDBbe'ftZfeii party. .- 
- mee ■ U84mtDUd (W MMara 
■ «rfca to ntn far Cuban troop wWidaftri* 
~6pmnaigftboutog Angelo. - - 

Johannesburg 1694 '► *» 1 

Victory for the f 
ANC means l.j 
a better life 



t9» SenLNtjatna, toodararsouto 

West AWch P8opte*B Orgunteafiarv 
irina Namibte’s Jnctepondonoo 1 

■ ■ • 

-tWO Sotoh Africa rafewM tong- * 
Imprisoned Mack rwfonaMW foster 
Netoon Mandate. 

■taot GeawarefnAngoiaoMwar. 

IflBZ Angbta elections conOrm - 
Resident Eduardo dos Santos* 

MPLA to power, taut ORposW o q ItoBa 
IrwhrJonMSmWbi rd us M to 
accept outoarneL CM ww resumes. 
1982 Oamotta to Maambiquo cM 


19M MsndMa’e African National 
Conpaarfaifosira ad-race atootfons 
to Saudi Africa. 

by South Atocen 
kwaafan** ArtaM 
cu awa ft ewsauttadto 
- • • 

- tiefeMbiQftBtyfxBinQ 
Unite raontnant Unite ■ 
raUMd to accept the 
outturn* Mr muiMdl . 
Hoar, peace late roey be 
otoM to ouecaoB. 


A 1968, US-brokcrod 
settlement saw the 
wfDKfmral of Cuban 
troops Sum Angola In . 
return for Sotoh African 
acoaptenoa of iwriH- 
party ofoctfons in 
Namtote. Thasa took 
piaca to lha Mowing 
yeer and were won by 
me South west Africa 
People* OgsntMtton. 
MM ie sdi to power. 


■ Once the fiefttom of tha 

' British South Africa 

Company. Iho territory 
* Bhen fltadasfet became 
7" afirittahcdtonyatthe 
v j twO of this century. TTw 
O aatotreteon caff fciwro- 
J* mart to tae3.iritefcrafly 
p dadamdtodapepdanueln 
•\ w n ct toria end om. ; ia - 
to 1979. ta 1000 
e»BC8oo»,«w Znnu party 
fa can* to power, wbwelt ' 
•: * ateya today to pwlnershlp 
L> wSrSte Zapu party. 

As in Angola. 

-. independancetotSTS 
' waatrauntofc. marked 
by fha modus etf mot* 

. Ihan 200,000 aeUarecf 
Portuguese origin and a 
. etui war encouraged fat 
by vtote Rhodesia taow 

Zmataws) end Btan by 
wMW South Africa. A 
1992 peace pact brought 

the war to an and. This 

■. Thursday and Friday, 

•> 6c5m voters go to too . 
poto h the country - * first 
• muM-party elections. 

*.L ' 

vvj friCi. -j ® ou **i Africa 

\ -C- . ' 'Jr More then 360 yaw* 

after Dutch asplorer Jan 
. : \ van Rtobaeck founded a 

aeMament to the Cape 
''.-’•Airj \ . o# Good Hope, wMertda 
J end Ha apertheU ncN 
~ w ! poSdae finely gawe way 

, .to the taco of eenettons 

j -t ttoto d omatotooppoeMon 

C/ wtti the mean toan 

i prison to 1980 of Matson 

/ Mandate. Hawes 

r atected prsWdsrit ol 

South Atoca tfda year to 
the oounby* teto sl- 

tion. . . Renamo is not an oppo- 
sition in ideological terms.” 

Some observe* suspect that 
Mr Dhlakama is preparing the 
way for a return to the bush 
war. He has repeated recent 
warnings that Renamo would 
not tolerate electoral fraud in 
the presidential a "R parliamen- 
tary polls. 

T TnKlrp Angola, however, the 
integration of rival armies is 
more advanced and the UN 

Free of racial division and report to the Security Council tion. . . Renamo is not an oppo- secretary-gen 
civil war. without external said that “the peace talks are sition in ideological terms ” not shared 1 
aggressors, and accepting the now in their final phase". Some observers suspect that Luanda. “If ti 

principles of democracy and The collapse of Angola’s Mr Dhlakama is preparing the the necessary 

civfl rights, and with market transition to democracy is way for a r e turn to tire bush outstanding 
driven economic p lanning, fresh in the minds of the war. He has repeated recent resolved witt 
southern Africa will have a Mozambique electorate. Mr warnings that Renamo would Mr Boutros G 
common cause: to develop the Chissano, whose party has not tolerate electoral fraud in and urged thi 
potential of lanAu rich in o3 ruled Mozambique inde- the presidential a "R parhamen- meni u 
and natural gas, minerals, pendence, fs widely expected to tary polls. the peace tall 

marine resources and agricul- win. but made clear that Mr Unlike Angola, however, the Should a fb 

tural produce, with the bonus Dhlakama would be part of a integration of rival armies is it would inv 

of thniiBanrtft of miles of fine coalition government only on more advanced and the UN previous acct 
beaches encam- 

A s Mozambique and Angola edge warily 
toward a lasting peace, Michael Holman, 
£ Nicholas Shaxton and Peter Stanley 
?iI2£JEuch assess the likely impact on the region 

can yet go j xr 

wrong before 

the edifice is finally complete, his terms, unconditionally monitoring force is 7,000 strong tory. while in 
In Mozambique Mr Afonso accepting Frehmo policies. - nearly 10 times the Angola and cities ) 
Dhlakama, leader of the erst- The differences between the contingent - and is backed by groups bunta 

while rebel Renamo party and two parties are not ideological, 2,400 international observers. Unita support 
file main challenges* to FresL- however, but stem from Both sides, however, are The renew 
dealt Joaqunn Chissano's rul- regional, ethnic and personal thought to have substantial make disara 
ing Frelxmo party, seems to be rivalries. arms caches and to have kept sides, envisag 

hinting that he, like Mr Sav- “First we are asking whether back soldiers in reserve, peace plan, a 
jmhj, might not accept defeat Mr nhfekama will accept my Whichever party wins the elec- The two sic 
at the polls. programme with no pneoondi- tions, only a coalition govern- Angola needs 

Meanwhile peace may yet tions,” said the president *T merit can effectively tackle the least 6,000 stt 
prove elusive in Angola, not- think it is necessary to have legacy of 400 years of colonial- ceasefire. B< 
w ithstanding the optimism of opposition, but in parliament, ism and 30 years of war. " and Unita afl 
Mr Boutros GhaH, who in his not in the adminlstra- Meanwhfleln Angola the UN' fuL however, ; 

the edifice is finally complete. 

In Mozambique Mr Afonso 
Dhlakama, leader of the erst- 
while rebel Renamo party and 
the mam challenges* to Presi- 
dent Joaqunn Chissano’s rul- 
ing Frelimo party, seems to be 
Hinting that he, like Mr Sav- 
imh j, might not accept defeat 
at the polls. 

Meanwhile peace may yet 
prove elusive in Angola, not- 
withstanding the optimism of 
Mr Boutros Ghali, who in his. 

monitoring force is 7,000 strong 
- nearly IQ times the Angola 
contingent - and is backed by 
2,400 international observers. 

Both sides, however, are 
thought to have substantial 
arms caches and to have kept 
back soldiers in reserve. 
Whichever party wins the elec- 
tions, only a coalition govern- 
ment can effectively tackle the 
legacy of 400 years of colonial- 
ism and 30 years of war. 

Meanwhfleln Angola the "UN ' 

secretary-general’s optimism is 
not shared by the people in 
Luanda. “If the two sides show 
the necessary political will, the 
outstanding issues can be 
resolved within a short time", 
Mr Boutros Ghali said recently, 
and urged the Angolan govern- 
ment and Unita to conclude 
the peace talks by October 3L 
Should a final deal be struck, 
it would involve a revival of 
previous accords in 1991. But 

the collapse of 

•t the transition 

warily ^ iftt * 1932 

J inspired new 


_ fighters used 

> hidden weap- 

ons stockpiles 
>n rapidly to cap- 

ture much of 
Angola’s terri- 
tory. while in the main towns 
and cities MPLA vigilante 
groups hunted down and killed 
Unita s u pporters. 

The renewed distrust will 
make disarmament of both 
sides, envisaged under the new 
peace plan, a difficult exercise. 

The two sides do agree that 
Angola needs a UN force at 
least 6,000 strong to oversee a 
ceasefire. Both government 
imd Unita nfRrialu are doubt* 
fuC however, about the world’s 

willingness to pay for an exer- 
cise on this scale and provide 
the manpower required. 

Without a settlement, the 
conflict seems set to drag on as 
TH»it bf»r side Is likely to win the 
war. Unita is able to make 
much of the countryside 
ungovernable, but is unable to 
capture MPLA urban strong- 
holds. Neither side seems short 
of funds. For the government, 
proceeds come from more than 
500,000 barrels of oil that flow 
daily from mainly offshore oil- 
fields. For Unita, an estimated 
S2S0m (£i5&2m) worth of dia- 
monds have bear leaked out 
from its territory, which 
includes the main diamond 
producing areas. 

Generals and politicians on 
both sides openly recognise 
that the war Is unwinnable. 
And the size of the prize at 
stake is so great that they 
know they will riot readily be 
forgiven if they squander the 
opportunity for peace. 

Angola is in the fortunate 
position of being able to fond 
its recover by using the oil and 
diamond wealth that currently 
funds the war, and take part in 
the wider reconstruction of the 
region. For the first time 
southern Africa is attracting 
the attention of emerging mar- 
ket finals, thanks Doth to polit- 
ical change In South Africa 
and economic reforms across 
the continsiL 

Although the bulk of the 
$2bn-$3bn the market might 
attract will go to South Africa, 
nearly a dozen stock markets 
are now competing for busi- 
ness - in Botswana, C6te 
d’Ivoire, Ghana. Kenya, Mauri- 
tius, Namibia, Nigeria, Swazi- 
land, Zambia and Zimbabwe. 
Traditional obstacles to invest- 
ment - ranging from artifi- 
cially fixed exchange rates and 
exchange controls to govern- 
ment hostility - are being 
eased or removed altogether. 

For the first time In 400 
years, the region will be free of 
systems of radally based hege- 
mony, free of conflict, free of 

the id eolo gica l rtiffonenreis that 
marked the post independence 
era of Africa, and able to har- 
ness the power of South Africa. 

If Mozambique and Angola 
succeed in their transition to 
lasting democracy, the people 
of southern Africa may be able 
to look back on the days ahead 
as the start of a new and more 
prosperous era. 


Japan scandal 
sentence passed 

A forma: provincial governor, the only Japanese politician 
brought to trial in a bribery scandal involving the Sagawa 
Kyubin parcel delivery company, yesterday received a 
suspended prison sentence. Mr Kiyoshi Kaneko was given a 
one-year jail tom suspended for three years, for taking YlOOm 
(Sim) from Sagawa Kyubin in a political funding scandal that 
helped bring down two governments. 

Disclosures over Sagawa Kyubin’s donations to senior politi- 
cians in 1992 and 1993 contributed to the collapse of the 
Liberal Democratic party government last year. Suspicions 
over Sagawa Kyubin funding caused the resignation of Mr 
Mbrihiro Hosokawa. prime minister of the succeeding coali- 
tion government, last April. 

■Mr Ryutaro Hashimoto, international trade and industry 
minister, had not deviated from the cabinet's stance when he 
told a parliamentary committee on Monday that the question 
of whether Japan committed aggression against Asian neigh- 
bours was “a delicate matter of definitions," Mr Kozo Igarashi. 
Japanese government spokesman, said yesterday. 

Mr Hashimoto, also chairman of the Japan War Bereaved 
Families Association, acknowledged Japan invaded nhinn and 
imposed colonial rule on Korea, but claimed Japan's Second 
World War fight was not with Asian nations but with the US 
and European powers. William Dawkins and Reuter, Tokyo 

MCI in Mideast telecoms deal 

The US triecommunlcations giant MCI said yesterday its had 
signed a contractual agreement with Pa telco, a private com- 
pany with the telecommunications concession for the Gaza 
Strip and West Bank, to provide international telephone net- 
work capacity. The MCI statement, made after a ceremony in 
Gaza yesterday which marked the transfer of the telecommu- 
nications network from the Israeli state-owned telecom com- 
pany to Pa telco, comes amid growing international contro- 
versy about the award of the contract Mr Lawrence Kodacovt 
senior vice-president of MCL said Patelco would run and 
operate the telecommunications system in all Palestinian 
areas and MCI would provide the network capacity to link the 
Palestinian areas with the rest of the world. The US has 
formally complained to Mr Yassir Arafat Palestine Liberation 
Organisation chairman, about the absence of open public 
bidding for the telecoms contract Julian Ozanne, Jerusalem 

Migrant trafficking on increase 

Trafficking in migrants is on the increase and now accounts 
for the bulk of illegal immigrants into the world's rich nations, 
according to the International Organisation for Migration. It 
estimates that traffickers pocket hundreds of millions of dol- 
lars each year from several hundred thousand migrants seek- 
ing a better life overseas. Payments can reach $30,000, the 
going rate paid by Chinese to gangs for entry to North Amer- 
ica and western Europe. Frances Williams, Geneva 

S Africa trade surplus falls 

South Africa's trade surplus fell in September to just R168m 
($48m), precipitating a sharp rise in local bond yields. Imports 
dropped slightly to R7.4hn from August's R8.1bn, while exports 
fell even more sharply to R7.Ghn from R8.4bn, bringing the 
total trade surplus so far this year to RUMibn, well down on 
Rl49bn for the same nine months in 1963. Mark Suzman, 


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says premier 
ruled out deal 

By James Blitz 

Hie prime minister yesterday 
published a report by Sir Robin 
Butler, secretary to the cabi- 
net, alter an investigation into 
allegations of impropriety 
against members of the govern- 
ment brought by Mr Mohamed 
Fayed, the chairman of Har- 

In the report Sir Robin said 
that he was asked to investi- 
gate the allegations on Septem- 
ber 30, one day after they had 
been brought to Mr John Major 
by an informant. 

According to Sir Robin, the 
informant said the Harrods 
chief bad sought a meeting 
with the prime minister “prin- 
cipally because of Mr Fhyed's 
wish to have the Department 
of Trade and Industry inspec- 
tors’ report on the takeover of 
the House of Fraser revised or 

The report said: "He had 
made a number of allegations 
against government ministers 
and was contemplating passing 
them to others." The prime 
minister told Sir Robin that it 
would be impossible for him to 
meet Mr Fayed. Mr Major said 
he would not make any deal 
with the Harrods chief - 
"regardless of the cost to the 
government's reputation". 

On October 3, the prime min- 
ister instructed Sir Robin to 

follow up all the allegations 
with the ministers concerned. 

Sir Robin had “conversa- 
tions" with the ministers the 
week before the Conservative 
party conference. On Monday 
October 17, after his return 
from Bournemouth. Mr Mejor 
concluded that he should 
accept the resignation of Mr 
Tim Smith, the junior North- 
ern Ireland minister, at the end 
of the week once Sir Robin had 
completed his inquiries. 

However, before this hap- 
pened, allegations that Mr 
Smith and Mr Neil Hamiltoa 
Hie corporate affairs minister, 
were paid to raise questions in 
the Commons on Mr Fayed's 
behalf were published in The 
Guardian newspaper. 

Mr Smith told Sir Robin that 
he received payments from Mr 
Fayed between 1987 and 1989 
without declaring the informa- 
tion in the Register of Mem- 
bers Interests until just before 
the end of that period. 

The report said: “He 
acknowledged that be should 
have done so earlier." 

According to Sir Robin, Mr 
Hamilton emphatically denied 
throughout ids inquiries that 
he had received any payments 
deriving from Mr Fayed. 

“1 have found no evidence 
which controverts Mr Hamil- 
ton's assurances on these mat- 
ters." Sir Robin wrote. 

Martin Ballinger, managing director of Go-Ahead Group, a private bus operator, outside St Paul's 
Cathedral celebrating Go-Ahead's purchase for nearly £24zn ($37 3m) of the publicly owned London 
Central bos company. Six of tile 10 London has companies have been sold in the past two months 

Old dispute entangles Rowland and Fayed 

By Robert Peston 

The complicated relationship 
between Mr Mohamed Fayed 
and Mr Tiny Rowland - once 
friends, then enemies, now 
allegedly buddies - took an 
extraordinary twist yesterday 
when it emerged that they are 
in effect suing each other 

They find themselves at 
opposite ends of a court case 
because of an indemnity which 
Mr Rowland’s company, Lon- 
fho, gave to Mr Graham Jones, 
a former employee of Mr Fayed 
who defected to Lonrho. 

Because of this indemnity, a 
potentially substantial liability 
may have been created for 
Lonrho by legal proceedings 
which Mr Fayed initiated at 
the be ginning of the year tor 
breach of confidence against 
Mr Jones, former finance 
director of House of Fraser, 
the stores group which was 
acquired by the Fayeds in 1985. 
Mr Jones is defending the 

Mr Rowland last night con- 
firmed the existence of the 
indemnity, but said that he did 
not believe Mr Fayed would do 
anything to damage him. 

Mr Royston Webb, Mr 
Fayed’s legal adviser, said that 
in the forthcoming case he 
would be contesting the valid- 
ity of the indemnity. He said 
that there was precedent that 
such an indemnity was void if 
wrongdoing was proved. 

Mr Michael Cole, a colleague 
of Mr Fayed, said Mr Fayed 
and Mr Rowland "currently 
love each other", so he did not 
believe Mr Fayed would pursue 
the case if it hurt Mr Rowland. 

Until peace broke out last 
October, Lonrho and the 
Fayeds had been warring in 
and out of court for eight 

years, because of Mr Rowland's 
fury that the Fayeds had 
snatched House of Fraser from 
under his nose. 

As part of bis campaign to 
destabilise the Fayeds, Mr 
Rowland had allegedly secretly 
recruited Mr Jones in the 
spring of 1990. Mr Jones had 
left House of Fraser in January 
of that year and had allegedly 
undertaken not to divulge con- 
fidential information. Mr Jones 
allegedly received payments of 
£555,000 from Lonrho between 
April 1990 and June 1991. Dur- 
ing that period, he allegedly 
supplied information to the 

Bank of England alleging that 
the Fayeds were not fit to own 
Harrods Bank. 

The Bank took action 
against the Fayeds and in June 
1991 it forced them to surren- 
der their management control 
of Harrods Bank to an indepen- 
dent trustee. Mr Fayed was 
furious. He had long suspected 
that Mr Jones had worked with 
Lonrho but could not prove it 

After Mr Fayed and Mr Row- 
land agreed to drop their court 
cases against each other, he 
asked Mr Rowland for docu- 
mentary evidence on Lonrho ’s 
relationship with Mr Jones. 

CBI finds 

By PWBp Coggan, 

Economies Correspondent 

Manufacturers are enjoying a 
surge in exports but plan to 
increase prices in the face of 
rising costs according to the 
latest quarterly survey of 
industrial trends from the 
Confederation of British 
Industry, the largest employ- 
ers' organisation. 

The survey showed that 
more manufacturers were 
planning to increase domestic 
prices in the next four months 
than at any time since Janu- 
ary 199L 

The CBI survey also found 

• Business optimism 
Increased over the quarter. 

• Investment intentions 
improved, with the number of 
companies planning to Invest 
in new plant and equipment 
reaching its highest level since 
April 1989. 

9 Fewer jobs are being lost 
than at any time since October 

While the signs of an export- 
led r ecovery and higher manu- 
facturing investment may be 
welcome to the government, 
the news of potential inflation- 
ary pressures raised fears that 
further interest rate increases 
might be announced this year. 

The CBFs findings on price 
expectations were one of the 
factors cited by Mr Kenneth 
Clarke, chancellor of the 
Exchequer, and Mr Eddie 
George, governor of the Bank 
of England (the central bank), 
when they increased base 
rates last month. 

CBI surveys deduct the pro- 
portion of those expecting a 
factor to decline from those 
expecting it to increase, and 
express the result as a percent- 
age balance. 

The balance of companies 
e x pect in g to raise prices in the 
next four months was 20 per 
cent op from 12 per cent in 
the last quarterly survey and 
15 per cent in the CBI’s 
monthly trends report in 

The survey showed that a 
balance of 9 per cent of compa- 
nies increased domestic prices 
in the past four months ~ the 
highest since early 199L 

Deadline is set 
for Maxwell 
pension payouts 

By Nonna Cohen, 

Investments Correspondent 

International investment 
banks and advisers to the 
pension schemes formerly 
controlled by Robert Maxwell 
have been given until 
November 4 to make an offer of 

Sir Peter Webster, the former 
High Court judge appointed to 
help find a “global solution" to 
the shortfall in Maxwell 
pension scheme assets, met 
trustees and advisers to most 
of the schemes yesterday. Sir 
Peter hoped the global solution 
would raise “several hundred" 
milli on pounds, enough to 
enable each scheme to meet its 
liabilities in toll. 

Sir Peter is understood to 
have told the investment 
hanks that he will not accept 
offers which are not 
“reasonable" both in relation 
to tbe amount sought by 
pension, schemes and in 
relation to contributions 
offered by other participants. 

Trustees yesterday asked Sir 
Peter to set a deadline for 
completion of a final 

settlement, hopefully before 
the end of the year. 

Sir Peter has been working 
since last spring to find ways 
to allow investment banks and 
advisers which may have 
assisted in the disappearance 
of assets from the schemes to 
make restitution without 
incurring the embarrassment 
of admitting dome wrong. 

Finns which do not make 
reasonable offers of restitution 
by November 4 risk legal 
action by the pension schemes. 
It is understood that several 
schemes have prepared writs, 
which 'have not yet been 
served, seeking millions of 

Sir Peter is understood to 
have told trustees that 
participants in the global 
solution are likely to set 
conditions on their 

In particular, they will seek 
confidentiality and a guarantee 
that no further claims be made 
against them. Also, they may 
seek assurances that 
counter-claims from other 
investment banks will also be 

Most life houses 
welcome SIB plan 

The leading life companies 
yesterday broadly welcomed 
the Securities and Investments 
Board's two-year blueprint 
for helping victims of 
pension mls-selling - except 
for Legal and General which 
attacked the scheme. Jim Kelly 

Mr David Prosser, chief exec- 
utive of Legal and General 
Group, said: “We believe that 
the SIB is unfairly putting too 
great a burden of the costs of 
resolving the issue on the life 
assurance industry . . . This 
is a pensions industry problem 
which should have been 
funded by the whole of the 
pensions industry." 

Mr Prosser said the addi- 
tional provisions Legal and 
General will have to make 

under the scheme would be 
within the financial capacity of 
the company. 

Mr Geoffrey Lister, chief 
executive of the Bradford and 
Btogley Building Society, said 
the problem revealed by the 
SIB report was surprisingly 
large and many smaller advis- 
ers might be forced out of busi- 

He said: “I hope that SIB is 
supported in its suggestion 
that occupational pension 
schemes will be reasonable in 
their demands when It comes 
to reinstating transfers and 

“Otherwise I fear the IFA 
{independent financial adviser] 
sector will become solely the 
preserve of larger organisa- 
tions like ourselves." 

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December 1 & 2, 1994 

Venture Forum Europe *94, the fifth in a well received European series arranged by tbe 

Financial Tones and Venture Economics, brings together authoritative speakers from 

Europe and North America to review current developments in the venture capital industry 

and to examine future trends. 


Dr Luciano Balbo 

Mr Michid A de Haan 

Dr Jos Peelers 



Managing Director 

B&S Ventures Sri 

Atlas Venture 

Capricorn Venture Partners nv 

Mr Colin Bless fey 

Dr Walter R Heole 


Partner in charge of Corporate Finance 


Vice Chairman 


Baker & McKenzie (Frankfurt) 

Olivetti SpA 

Coopers & Lybracd 

Mr Brian Larcombe 

Dr Fabio Sattin 

Mr Christopher M Bown 

Executive Director, Finance & Planning 

Managing Director, Chase Gemina 


3i Group pic 


Baker &. McKenzie (London) 

Chairman, British Vsnturc Capital Association 


Mr Peter A Brooke 

Mr Jonny Maxwell 

European Venture Capital Association 

Chairman & Chief Executive Officer 

Senior Investment Analyst 

Mr John B Singer 

Advent International Corporation 

Standard Life Assurance Company 


Mr Roger Brooke 

Mr Denis Mortier 

Advent International pic 


Chief Executive Officer 

Mr Michael Skok 

Cant) over Investments pic 

Financi&re Saint Dominique 

Chairman & Chief Executive 

Mr Douglas R Brown 

Mr Jon Moulton 

European Software Publishing Limited 

Chairman & Chief Executive Officer 


Mr Leendert J van Driel 

Advent International pic 

Apax Partners & Co Ltd 

Managing Director 

Mr Thomas F Cadigan 

Dr Daniel F Muzyka 

Glide Investment Funds 

Assistant Treasurer & Managing Director 

IAF Professor of Entrepreneurship 

Miss Theresa Wallis 

IBM Retirement Funds 


Team Leader. Smaller Companies Group 

Mr Roderick Crawford 

London Stock Exchange 

Director & Head of Investment Ttust Research 

Mr Michael Walton 

BZW Securities Limited 

Managing Director 

Mr Alec D’JanoefT 

Gartmore Venture Capitol Limited 

Director of European Corporate Finance 

Mr Brian Winter-flood 

Coopers & Lybmnd 

Managing Director 

Co-sponsored by: 

Winterfiood Securities Limited 

Advent International 






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Engineers move 
nearer to deal 
on single lobby 

An initiative to create a single voice for the engineering 
Industry was a nnou n ced by Sir John Fairdongh, nh a j rmgn of 
the 13-year-old Engineering CoundL He unveiled a proposal to 
CTeate a new body to bring together the views of the institu- 
tions, industry and academics and provide the lona-awaited 
“single voice" for the profession. 

Sir John’s attempts to create a new structure have been 
strongly supported by industrialists and by Mr Michael 
Heseltine, trade and industry secretary, who believes a more 
unified structure would raise engineers* profile and simplify 
relations with the government. 

The council is the federal body for 41 professional institu- 
tions. but many engineers believe it has faflwi to provide an 
effective voice for the profession. Larger institutions have also 
been wary of conceiting it too much power. After several 
months of discussions by a policy group set up in Sep tember 
last year, the breakthrough came with the development 
of a proposal for a democratically-elected “senate" to be the 
focal point for the profession. The senate would have two 
boards, one to promote the profession, and the other to pro- 
mote it 

Warning on trade conflict 

The world’s main trailing nations should rise above politics in 
picking a leader for the World Trade Organisation, Professor 
Jagdish Bhagwati of New York’s Columbia University said in 
London last night at a memorial lecture for Harold Wincott, 
the former Financial Times journalist. Prof Bhagwati, an inter- 
national trade economist and former economic policy advisor 
to GAIT, said that the new WTO faced a historic challenge in 
finding solutions to new sources of world trading cnnfHct- 
Foremost among these would be the environment, labour 
standards and international competition policy. 

He said in the 24th annual Wincott lecture that the WTO 
would require “intellectual leadership, not the skills of politi- 
cal fixmanship.” "Instead,” he continued, “we observe the 
main trading nations battle to put their man in Geneva. It 
seems that their chief desire is to pursue their narrow political 
advantage, and advance their preferred economic agenda.” 

Research on ‘yobs’ in schools 

Better ways need to be found to control the “yob element” 
creating uproar in classrooms, said Mr Chris Woodhead, chief 
inspector of schools. It was no answer to expel disruptive 
pupils, leaving them to roam the streets. He said his organisa- 
tion, the Office for Standards in Education (Ofsted), would 
examine methods used by schools which succeeded in han- 
dling disruptive pupils without expelling them. 

Mr Woodhead spoke after Ofoted reports indicated a rising 
number of ex pulsions and suspensions from schools. Reports 
on 10 per cent of schools for pupils aged 11 or more showed 
that almost 900 pupils were expelled permanently from schools 
in England last year. One in eight schools expelled five or 
more pupils. Some 1,178 pupils were suspended indefinitely 
and nearly UM)00 were ordered out of schools for fixed periods. 
“If this is a rising trend, it is something we must all be 
worried about,” said Mr Woodhead. 

Channel train delayed again 

The Eurostar Channel tunnel rail network yesterday suffered 
its second delay on a trip arranged so that a trainload of 
invited guests could sample its service to the Cont in ent The 
train heading from London to Brussels was delayed for 10 
minutes in the tunnel because it had to be diverted from one 
track to another after a a signal fault 

A similar trip to Paris last week opened with the train 
breaking down at London Waterloo and passengers being 
transferred to a replacement after an hour’s delay. Mr Mal- 
colm Southgate, deputy m a n aging director of European Pas- 
senger Services, sa i d ; “This was nothing serious, hut It did 
slow us down a hit” European Passenger Services - the UK 
arm of Eurostar - explained that the signalling fault was a 
problem for Eurotunnel, the tunnel operator. 

Crowds flock to Pulp Fiction 

Quentin Tarantino's film Pulp Fiction, winner of the Pabne 
d’Or at Cannes this year, has taken more than £700,000 ($Llm) 
at 130 UK c fripmaa during its first weekend, Buena Vista 
International, the distributor, said. The film starring John 
Travolta and Brute Willis has topped the US box office for the 
past two weeks. The flhn has been greeted by many British 
critics as brilliant, but unusually disturbing. Tarantino's Res- 
ervoir Dogs has returned to UK cinemas after months of being 
barred from distribution on home video tapes. 

Tarantino’s True Romance has, however, been cleared for 
video release in the UK in December after becoming embroiled 
in a tong public debate about the effect of violent films in the 
wake of the murder in Liverpool of two-year-old Janies Bulger. 
Evidence was given At the trial of the boys convicted of kflling 
him that they had been influenced by watching a film called 
Childs Play S. 

Arts, Page 13 

Salmon survives long journey 

A salmon tagged by scientists on the River Dee in Wales a 
year ago has been caught more than LOOOtan away m Denr 
mark. Mr Henning Pedersen landed it while fishing m Jutland 
and qualified for a reward of £5 ($7 JO) from the UK’s National 
Rivers Authority. Mr Ian Davidson, a adrafast at the author- 
ity, said: "A salmon recaptured outside the British Isles is 
exceptional, and a first for our current programme of tagging 

01 The fishwas one of nearly L300 fish fitted with a axled 
plastic tag at a weir in Chester, north-west England, m Octo- 
ber last year as part of research to monitor the progress of 
salmon andstocks in the Dee, About 20 per cent w^caught 
by local anglers and others were recove^ from^gbbounng 
rivers. Scientists do not know how one fish survived as far as 
Denmark- “The mystery remains whether it was a Dee fish 
which went completely off course, or whether it was originally 
a Danish fish that somehow found its way to Wales and then 
returned to Denmark, - said a scientist. 

businesses for sale 

manufacturer of precision 
engineering cutting tools 

woU known BimtfngfciTTi 


Principal tootses ol «» liuslBew to#** 

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• tongastcfflUsMd pfoduriBAU 

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Please address oH encjutfesto Bob Young or Mg* Ho(*hs al 

MPs point to cancer risk from petrol 

By Charles Batchelor, 
Transport Correspondent 

An all-party committee of MPs 
and the UK oil industry yester- 
day became embroiled in a 
fierce argument over whether 
unleaded petrol poses more of 
a threat to health than the 
leaded petrol it set out to 

The row broke out after the 
House of Commons transport 
committee called for a ban on 
the sale of super-unleaded pet- 
rol and a government review of 
“premium” unleaded after sci- 
entific evidence showed it to be 
more likely to cause cancer 
than leaded fueL 

The MPs* findings, contained 

in a report into air pollution in 
London, overturn many popu- 
lar assumptions about the use 
of “green" petroL Their report 
came on the eve of the publica- 
tion of an in-depth study of the 
impact of the car on the envi- 
ronment by the Royal Commis- 
sion on Environmental Pollu- 

Many motorists using 
unleaded petrol would be 
shocked to learn “they are 
chucking out greater quanti- 
ties of pollutants than an old 
banger," the transport commit- 
tee commented. 

It said: “Sales of unleaded 
petrol have been encouraged 
by aggressive promotion cam- 
paigns emphasising its ‘green’ 

credentials but without mak- 
ing the crucial distinction 
between Its use with and with- 
out a converter. The result is a 
huge gap between public per- 
ception and reality." 

The UK Petroleum Industry 
Association, representing 15 
large oil companies, denied 
there was any justification for 
banning supewmleaded petroL 
Unleaded petrol had been 
introduced in response to a 
government request to reduce 
lead in the atmosphere, it said. 

Apart from the lead content 
there was no significant differ- 
ence between the composition 
of unleaded petrol and four- 
star leaded petroL Aromatics 
such as benzene, blamed for 

causing cancer, had not been 
added to replace the lead, the 
association said. 

It also denied that oil compa- 
nies were involved in the 
“aggressive” marketing of 
unleaded fuels. The industry 
would be delighted to co- 
operate in any government 
Investigation, but research was 
already under way into the pol- 
luting effects of a wide range 
of fuel blends. 

The MPs urged that super- 
unleaded, used in high-perfor- 
mance en gines and accounting 
far 6 per cent of motor fuel 
sales, should be phased out by 
the mid of 1996. They called on 
the government to investigate 
the use of unleaded petrol in 

cars without catalytic convert- 

Mr Brian Mawhinney, trans- 
port secretary, and Mr John 
Gummer. environment secre- 
tary, expressed surprise at the 
the report and said benzene 
levels in London were at or 
below recommended levels. 

The British Medical Associa- 
tion, which represents family 
doctors, said the report 
suggested only “minor techni- 
cal fixes” and ignored the need 
to reduce car travel by invest- 
ing in alternatives. 

The report made 35 recom- 
mendations on improving air 
quality including tougher emis- 
sion standards as part of 
vehicle tests. 

bridge is 

By James Buxton, 

Scottish Correspondent 

The government was urged 
yesterday to postpone for five 
years a decision on building a 
road bridge over the Firth of 
Forth near Edinburgh, the 
Scottish capital. It was advised 
instead to raise tolls on the 
existing road bridge in order to 
finance transport improve- 
ments which might make a 
second road bridge unneces- 

The proposal came from 
Lothian Regional Council, 
which covers the area on the 
south side of the Firth of 
Forth, in response to studies 
published by the government 
which present a strong case for 
a second bridge. The govern- 
ment is expected to announce 
before the end of the year that 
it wants to go ahead with the 
project, which would be 
financed by the private sector. 

The regional council 
acknowledged yesterday that 
severe traffic problems at the 
bridge would increase if noth- 
ing was done. It proposed 
increasing tolls on the existing 
bridge from 40p per car each 
way to £1.50 ($137) as soon as 
consent could be obtained from 

The Increase would help 
reduce unnecessary traffic on 
the bridge and yield £25m a 
year to municipal authorities 
and the government's Scottish 
Office. Of this, £ 20 m would go 
to fund improvements in pub- 
lic transport and road links. 

Extra money would be 
invested in the railway system 
to boost the number of trips 
made across the Forth railway 

Retreat is forced by Conservatives who represent areas with threatened authorities 

Government drops plan to scrap councils 

Painful path to municipal re f orm 

1991: Government raises prospect of aiding traditional two-tier system In 
which logs courty couraie and smafler dtatrict councfa hold Afferent 
powarfcovw the same areas 

1993 May: Rewtow cummbsWs Drat recommend a tions involve abaSshing 
several county ootmetts 

■1983 July: John Major vetoes proposal by environment ntn M a r John 
Gummer 10 abandon the review for a3 counties and send the commission 
only to counties where a majority request B ■ 

1993 0ct: Gunner amounoas changed guidance to the com missi on: 
retaining, existing two-tier adntintotraSon to now to be the ‘exception" 

1994 Jan: Lancashire county council, threatened with aboGtion, wins court 
judgement that. Glimmer's *®tcfiptiop’ ode to unlawful 

1894 sumrarnoc C ommi s si on suggests abaSshing several county councils 
and banding- their powers to enfarged district authorities; launches local 
“acMsiwy referenda"' 

.1894 October flcforo nd n show widespread opposition to a duti r fe l faUon by 
enlarged tfistrici ooaracSs- , ! 

By John Authors 

The government yesterday 
abandoned Its plans to abolish 
North Yorkshire and Somerset 
comity councils after pressure 
from Conservative MPs. 

The Local Government Com- 
mission had r pflmrnw willed that 
both counties should be 
replaced by councils combin- 
ing the powers now held by 
districts and county authori- 

The move was the latest 
twist in a long series of govern- 
ment attempts to secure a sat- 
isfactory reform of local gov- 

The process began in 1974 
when many of the old counties 
dating back to Anglo-Saxon 
times were abolished in a radi- 
cal redrawing of the adminis- 
trative map. 

The commission was set up 
by the present government in 
1991 to meet same of the criti- 

cisms of the 1974 structure. 
Hie commission hinted yester- 
day that there would be a fur- 
ther climbdown from radical 
reform today, when it will sub- 
mit proposals on nine more 
counties to Mr John Gummer, 

the environment secretary. It 
is expected to recommend no 
change in six counties. 

However, Mr Gummer told 
parliament yesterday that 
Avon and Humberside, both 
created in the reorganisation of 

1974, are to be abolished. It 
now awn* clear that Hip cur- 
rent local government review 
will be restricted mainly to 
undoing the work of 1974. 

Last year, Mr Gummer said 
he wanted the retention of the 
current system to be the 
“exception”, and expected the 
commission to recommend uni- 
tary councils even if in some 
cases this involved extra 
expense. But opposition to the 
proposals for Somerset and 
North Yorkshire proved 


In Somerset, an the county’s 
Conservative MPs. including 
the former cabinet minis ter Air 
Tom King, had threatened to 
vote against the proposals in 

One of them, the paymaster- 
general Mr David Heathcoat- 
Amory, had even threatened to 
resign as a minister over the 

The cross-party Association 

of District Councils had 
dubbed the proposal to create a 
unitary North Riding of York- 
shire “Shambleshire". while 
Air Robert Banks, the Conser- 
vative MP for Harrogate, 
described the plans as "a com- 
plete load of rubbish". 

Sir John Ranham chairman 
of the government's review 
commission, said yesterday 
that views of residents in these 
two counties “were not dear 
cut”, and that the proposals 
had been “finely balanced”. 
While there was majority sup- 
port for unitary councils in 
both counties, he said, “there 
was no consensus for any par- 
ticular solution". 

He added: “The commission's 
pioneering work in measuring 
public opinion and people's 
feelings of community has 
revealed in many other places 
substantial bodies of opinion 
wanting local government left 
as it is." 

on Scottish 

A Scottish partiament would 
take over the present role of 
the Scottish secretary in the 
UK government, the Scottish 
Constitutional Commission 
said yesterday. 

The opposition Labour party 
has said that it would estab- 
lish a parliament for Scotland 
if it forms the next UK govern- 
ment as a forerunner of 
regional assemblies in Wales 
and in parts of England. The 
centrist Liberal Democrats are 
also in favour. But all parties 
except the Scottish National 
party oppose full independence 
for Scotland. 

The implication that there 
would be no role for a Scottish 
secretary in the UK cabinet is 
likely to be seized on by Con- 
servative oppone n t s of a Scot- 
tish parliament who will argue 
that Scotland would lose its 
voice in the UK cabinet 

Yesterday Mr George 
Robertson, Labour’s shadow 
Scottish secretary, said the 
commission's proposals were 
“one more building block in a 
truly historic constntction." 

The commission arose out of 
the Scottish constitutional 
convention, a body dominated 
by Labour and the Liberal 
Democrats which drew up a 
scheme in 1992. It proposes 
that Scotland beep its 72 MPs 
at Westminster after it gams 
its own parliament. 

It suggests a that Scottish 
parliament would have 
between 100 and 140 members 
elected by a dual electoral sys- 
tem to ensure that a party 
which only won about 40 per 
cent of the vote would not take 
a majority of the seats. 

Mr Robertson said the com- 
mission had been ri ght to 
insist on keeping the current 
number of Scottish MPs at 
Westminster. “Since there will 
be a rolling process of decen- 
tralisation throughout Britain 
there wDl be no anomaly in 
retaining Scotland’s compli- 
ment of MPs," he said. 

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OCTOBER 26 1994 




Warning on 
threat to 
accord in 
N Ireland 

By David Owen, Jimmy Bums 
and John Murray Brown 

Hardline extremists could try 
to derail the Northern Ireland 
peace process. Sir Patrick May* 
hew. Northern Ireland secre- 
tary. said yesterday. 

In comments made in North- 
ern Ireland within hours of the 
reported abduction of the son 
or an ex-Sinn Fein councillor, 
Sir Patrick called For "the 
greatest restraint and self-dis- 
cipline" from all concerned. 
Those trying to provoke a 
return to violence "must not 
succeed", he said. 

Sir Patrick said: “I don’t 
know if it's the case in this 
instance, but we must expect 
there will be people who don't 
wish to see an end to violence 
and who will be tiying to pro- 
voke a return to violence. 

"Whenever peace comes 
after a long period of conflict 
there is a risk hardline extrem- 
ists will try and provoke a 
return to violence," 

The disappearance of Mr 
Paul Carroll was the first 
apparently politically moti- 
vated incident in Ulster since 
the declaration of a loyalist 
ceasefire two weeks ago. 

Last night the mystery sur- 
rounding Mr Carroll deepened 
when his father said that his 
son was “in safe hands" and 
was in hiding from the police 
because he was an informer. 

Mr Tommy Carroll contra- 
dicted an earlier version put 
out by members of his family 
that Mr Carroll had been 
abducted from his home by 
masked men. 

Police sources in Armagh 
City said that Mr Carroll had 
no previous terrorist convic- 
tions and was not known to be 
linked with any terrorist 

However, because of the 
staunchly republican creden- 

tials of members of his family, 
police were working on the 
theory that he may have been 
abducted as part of an internal 
feud, possibly IRA-related. 

Two of Mr Carroll's uncles 
were shot in separate terrorist- 
related incidents in the 1980s. 
Roddy Carroll, a member of the 
{NLA - an extremist break- 
away group from the IRA - 
was shot by police allegedly 
involved in a shoot-to-kill 
policy. A second uncle, Adrian, 
was murdered by loyalist para- 

Loyalist politicians repre- 
senting protestant paramili- 
taries were in New York yes- 
terday. They were expected to 
meet low-ranking administra- 
tion officials. 

The loyalists, led by Mr 
Gusty Spence a former para- 
military and a convicted 
murderer and Mr David 
Ervine, who has also been in 
prison on bomb-related 
offences, said they were pre- 
pared to meet with Sinn Fein, 
the IRA’s political wing. 

The loyalist groups, unlike 
constitutional unionist parties, 
have no misgivings about Dub- 
lin’s proposed cross-border 
institutions, as long as it is not 
a "Trajan horse leading to a 
united Ireland”. 

Yesterday’s events came as 
Mr Albert Reynolds, the Irish 
prime minister, told the Dali 
that the framework document 
with which the two govern- 
ments hope to inject momen- 
tum into talks involving 
Ulster’s Tnafa pniiHrai parties 
on the province's future had to 
strike a "very fine balance”. 

Meanwhile, Ms Maine Geogfa- 
egan-Quinn, Irish justice minis- 
ter, told the Dail the govern- 
ment would act soon to scrap 
the Republic’s state of emer- 
gency, effectively available as 
an anti-IRA measure for more 
than half a century. 

Shorts receives £50m order from Kuwait 

Shorts, the Belfast-based aerospace 
company, has received a £50m order tor 
air {fgfonrg missilps from Kuwait. 

The announcement of the order came 
at the end of a visit to the emirate by 
Mr Malcolm Rifkind, defence secretary. 
The order was said to be a surprise to 
die Ministry of Defence, the Defence 
Export Services Organisation and 

The company will supply Kuwait 
with the Starburst shoulder-launched 
anti-aircraft mtarfiA 
Starburst - the immediate successor 
to the Javelin system, which Shorts has 
sold to more than 10 countries - has 
been developed to destroy high-perfor- 
mance low-dying aircraft as well as 
attack helicopters. 

The Starburst is a competitor to the 

US-made Stinger missile, which was 
used by rebels in Afghanistan against 
Soviet aircraft 

Mr Terry Stone. Shorts Missile 
Systems chief executive, said: "We are 
delighted that Starburst was selected 
over its rivals to win this 
prestigious multi-million pound 

“Its forward hit capability and 

unjammable laser guidance clearly 
proved it is in a class of its own and we 
value highly the Kuwait government's 
endorsement of Starburst’s effective- 

Shorts, which has been promoting 
Starburst in the Middle East, particu- 
larly Kuwait, since 1991. said the con- 
tract would not affect plans to cut 240 
jobs at its plant in Belfast. 

EU fails 
to limit 

By Alison Maitland 

European agriculture 
ministers In Luxembourg were 
again locked in stalemate last 
night on the plan to limit jour- 
ney times for animals being 
transported for slaughter. 

A compromise proposal from 
Germany, current EU presi- 
dent, to leave maximum jour- 
ney times at the discretion of 
member states met widespread 


The Royal Society for the 
Prevention of Cruelty to Ani- 
mals said the deadlock meant 
that "millions of animals 
will contlnne to suffer 
long, unnecessary, stressful 

The Issue is extremely emo- 
tive with the British public, 
56,000 of whom rang the 
RSPCA supporting its recent 
toll-page newspaper advertise- 
ments calling for an eight- 
hour journey limit. 

Ferry companies have intro- 
duced bans or restrictions on 
transporting live animals to 
the Continent in response to a 
campaign by animal welfare 

Theythey will maintain their 
bans unless European-wide 
agreement Is reached. 

Northern member states, 
which favour journey limits of 
between eight and 15 hours 
before animals are rested, 
remain at loggerheads with 
southern states, which prefer a 
22-hour limit 

Heathrow tunnel collapse delays work a month 

By Charles Batchelor, 
Transport Correspondent 

Work on the collapsed section 
of tunnel under terminal three 
at Heathrow airport, London, 
is unlikely to resume for at 
least a month, BAA, the air- 
port operator said yesterday. 

A preliminary investigation 
into the causes of the collapse, 
which hag caused traffic chaos 
around the airport, is expected 

to take 10 days. 

Up to a further three weeks 
will elapse while the contrac- 
tors. Balfour Beatty, and BAA 
decide what action can be 


BAA said that although trav- 
ellers might have difficulties 
getting to Heathrow, the tun- 
nel workings posed no threat 
to the operations of the airport 
or the arrlinftg using tt. 

The controversial “new Aus- 

trian tunnelling method" is 
being used on only two short 
sections, where stations are 
being built at the two terminal 
complexes. Conventional bor- 
ing methods are being used 
under runways and for the rest 
of the 4 'A- mile tunnel. 

The problems at Heathrow 
started on Friday when earth 
began slipping into the tunnel 
near the terminal three car 
park during construction of the 

£300m Heathrow express rail 
link to Paddington stati on 
Work has also been 
suspended on parts of the Jubi- 
lee Line extension to London 
Underground where the Aus- 
trian method was being used. 
The suspensions, at London 
Bridge and Waterloo, are likely 
to continue at least until the 
findings are known of the pre- 
liminary investigation at 

Concrete has been pumped 
into the collapsed section of 
the tunnel to stabilise the 
ground and the office building 
above it which was being used 
as project headquarters for toe 
tunnelling. BAA said the area 
was “95 per cent stable". Most 
of the multi-storey car park at 
terminal three, closed on Fri- 
day, reopened yesterday. 

The investigation team wfll 
be led by Mr David Williams, 

technical director of BAA, and 
will involve three groups of 
consultants, Mott MacDonald. 
Geoconsnlt and Ove Amp. “We 
won’t be starting work tor 
another month on the site but 
work is continuing elsewhere, " 
BAA said. Work at Heathrow 
started in April Tunnelling is 
still in its early stages with 180 
metres dug in the central area 
and work just beginning north, 
nf the airport 







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Dominique Damon explains to 
Ian Rodger her business version 
of 'explication de tratp’ 

at work 

I t may strand unlikely, but the 
mana gement approach of Dom- 
t nique Damon, recently 
appointed chief operating oEQ- 
cer of Alusuisse-Lonza, the Swiss 
alu minium , chemicals and packag- 
ing group, bears a striking resem- 
blance to the great French disci- 
pline of “explication de teste”. 

The idea behind explication de 
texts is not to maim grand assess- 
ments from an overview of a whole 
novel, play or poem, but to focus on 
a small, but significant, text, and 
thereby to achieve a new enlighten- 
ment about the whole. 

The 47-year-old Damon, who is 
French, tries to do just that, travel- 
ling nearly constantly to visit the 
group’s subsidiaries fn Europe and 
the US and mrami-nra with the man- 
agers very specific problems. 

On a recent visit to a subsidiary 
in Basle, for example, she devoted 
the day to working capital. “What 
could be more hanai , you may say, 
and it would be banal if I Just 
walked in and looked at the figures 
and said, “right, you have to do bet- 
ter,’ and walked out,” she explains. 

Instead, she sat down with the 
managers of the subsidiary and 
probed into the finest details until 
they an understood what was really 
wrong and could come up with 
idffflg for improv emen ts. 

"I am not interested in them mak- 
ing presentations for me. I want an 
exchange of ideas at every level,” 

she says. "People are stressed if 
there are problems, and you 
make it worse if you do not help. It 
is not for me to find solutions, but I 
cannot leave people in anguish.” 

She uses the French word u ani- 
mation" to describe her approach - 
roughly a combination of motiva- 
ting and stimulating - and she is 
convinced that it can no nquar most 
management problems. 

She recalled visiting a company 
in the Netherlands - in pre-Alu- 
suisse days - where an absenteeism 
rate of 18 per cent was destroying 
its competitiveness- She was told 
nothing could be done because that 
was a national pattern. She refused 
to accept it, meeting again and 
again with the managers and 
employees until ways were found to 
bring it down. 

I s it easier for a woman to win 
the confidence of employees 

than for a man? T don't t.hinlr 
so, except in « rtr* »m n situations” 
She recalls an occasion at the begin- 
ning of her career at the Boussois 
flat glass company in Paris. 

A particularly rowdy union was 
staging a sit-in and her superiors 
were so frightened that they sent 
her in to deal with the leaders. 
“They were shouting loudly. My 
only tactic was to talk very quietly. 
Gradually, things calme d down 
until only one man was Shouting , 
and I said calmly that either he had 

Dominique Damon: 1 want an exchange of Ideas at every feraeF 

to go or that I would go.” 

Damon's most noteworthy 
achievement in her six years at Alu- 
suisse has been to main? nm+- acqui- 
sitions - including the big Cana- 
dian Lawson Mardon packaging 
group early this year - in five 
years, without a disaster and with- 
out losing the companies’ top man- 

She says she is careful when 
looking at acquisition candidates to 
pick those whose natural develop- 
ment has been artificially blocked - 
perhaps by a nervous owner or 
excessive debt or the lack of critical 
mass. Then from the day of the pur- 
chase, she moves in, sets goals and 
gets people “animated”. Within a 
week of the takeover of Lawson 
Mardon, every line executive was 
given clear targets to achieve. 

Damon has a doctorate in experi- 
mental psychology but has never 
been to business schooL She reads 
books on management bnt has no 

favourites among the gurus. “They 
all add something, but they tend to 
repeat themselves after a few 
years,” she says. 

Now that she is chief operating 
officer and soon to be group chief 
executive, should she not be sitting 
back, contemplating the big picture 
and leaving the nitty gritty to oth- 
ers? “I hope not," she replies with- 
out hesitation. Questions such as 
whether Alusuisse should have 
three legs or five, or whether pack- 
aging should mafci> np 50 per cent or 
75 per cent of the whole in 10 years 
do not seem to interest her. 

"Of course, we have a very strong 
strategic team in Zurich that analy- 
ses every project and every compa- 
ny’s business plan. We use a three- 
year rolling plan and we have 
worked very hard on the accuracy 
of our forecasts. But I do not see 
any need for a longer-term plan. We 
know our markets well enough that 
we should not go wrong.” 

C ompany suggestion schemes 
can pay handsome dividends 
if the arrangements are well 
packaged and backed by attrac ti ve 
rewards for employees. 

A study carried out by the Indus- 
trial Society* found that companies 
which have taken dusty suggestions 
boxes down from the walls and 
revamped their «*Hgmes are benefit- 
ing from a stream of new ideas. 

The society has produced an 
information pack for employers 
which in cludes guidance -and exam- 
ples of Successful schemes from 32 
organisations. Some of the more . 

Open to suggestion 

productive schemes include: 

• Land Rover's relaunched 
scheme. This reaped suggestions 
worth £2m in its first year. One 
suggestion that less fuel should be 
put in the tanka to drive cars from 
the production line saved £25,(XX) a 
year and earned £5,000 for the 
employee who suggested it 

Ed the Rover parent company a 
suggestion that industrial gloves 
could be recycled saved the group 

more than £100,000 a year. The staff 
member who made the suggestion 
received £5,000. 

Another £5,000 was awarded to a 
woman who suggested an alterna- 
tive printing process to replace the 
need to laminate the covers of car 
handbooks. That saved £80,000 a 

• Midland Bank’s Bright Ideas 
scheme. Subsequent proposals 
saved more than £250,000. 

• East Midland’s Eureka scheme. 
This helped save £22,000. Some 
£5,000 has been, paid out in rewards 
to staff. 

“Suggestion schemes are vital 
because they encourage innovation, 
quality and cost savings,” says the 
Industrial Society’s Georgina Tate. 
“Good schemes promote employee 
involvement and commitment” 

Richard Donkin 

*The suggestions scheme informa- 
tion pack is available, price £35, 
from the Industrial Society informa- 
tion service. Tel OH 262 240L 

Competition keeps 
the wheels rolling 

Charles Batchelor continues a series on public 
services with a look at Plymouth Citybus 

Waiting alongside 
f Plymouth Citybus' 

smart red, grey 
"• and white buses in 

the city’s Royal 
SL, 5k Parade are a cou- 
I I # J) pie of plain grey 
buses which pro- 
vide the city’s 
park-and-rlde ser- 

vice. “You can see that livery was 
decided by a committee,” says 
Brian Fisher, managing director of 
Citybus, ruefully. 

Subsidised by the local authority 
but operated by Citybus, the park- 
and-rlde fleet does indeed sport a 
livery chosen by the dty council. 
But the colour of these buses 
apart, Fisher says he has a relaxed 
relationship with the town hall, 
following the hiving-off of its bus 
operations into a separate com- 
pany nearly seven years ago. 

Fisher and his three- man team of 
senior managers are widely 
regarded in the bus industry as 
running one of the best-managed 
companies still in municipal own- 
ership. They have improved the 
frequency and quality of services 
and converted a public subsidy 
into a healthy profit. 

Before the 1985 Transport Act 
forced councils to establish sepa- 
rately managed bus companies, 
Plymouth City Transport received 
an annual subsidy of £400,000. 
Losses continued for the first three 
years after separation but the com- 
pany has since achieved steadily 
rising profits reaching ci-SSm on 
turnover of £9.6m in 1993. 

As well as achieving a healthy 
profit and loss account, the com- 
pany improved the quality of ser- 
vices after carrying out a review of 
fares, service frequency and pas- 
senger numbers. Minibuses 
replaced most of the expensive, 
cumbersome double deckers to pro- 
vide a Easter, more frequent ser- 
vice to outlying housing estates. 

Passenger numbers rose, but not 
s ufficiently to meet the nationally 
negotiated wage levels Plymouth 
Citybus inheri ted. An attempt to 
force down costs by reducing holi- 
days and overtime payments led to 
a drivers’ strike, but after 10 days 
the strikers backed down and 
accepted the terms. 

Brian Rafter has helped convert an annual subsidy into a £t.28m profit 

While Citybus' vehicles were off 
the road. Western National, a rival 
operator, applied to run on its 
routes. A nine- month bus war 
ensued before the two companies 
called a truce. 

The bus war was undeniably a 
setback, but Fisher, who is 48, says 
it was also a period of rapid learn- 
ing. He joined the buses at the age 
of 18 after a brief spell of working 
for a road haulage company. Dur- 
ing his career he has spent time on 
local government management 
courses, though most of his experi- 
ence has been acquired “as I went 
along A lot of it is common sense, 
halanrinp income and costs”. 

The financial management of a 
bus company is certainly helped 
by its positive cash flow - you 
don't bny bus tickets on credit But 
the strategy adopted by Fisher and 
his senior managers has several 
elements. They are: 

• To rid buses of their reputation 
as a downmarket means of trans- 
port. Plymouth Citybus has 
invested heavily in new vehicles 
and insists on a smart dress code 
for its drivers. 

• TO improve the frequency and 
reliability of its service “so that 
passengers can throw away the 
timetable”. Many outlying parts of 
Plymouth now have up to seven 
services an hour. 

• To tighten management con- 
trols. Under the council, accounts 
took three months to prepare. Now 
the board receives a weekly report 
on bus availability, staff sickness, 
wages costs and the like. Monthly 
management accounts arc avail- 
able within five working days of 
the month end. 

• To make use of facilities needed 
to support the bus operations to 
earn outside revenues. Citybus has 
successfully bid for maintenance 
work from the Ministry of Defence, 
British Rail and Devon County 
Council. These c o n tracts bring in 
£700,000 of turnover. 

• To expand profitable sidelines 
of the main bus business. It has 
increased its coach tour activities 
five-fold since independence and 
now generates turnover of Elm. 

• To improve relations with staff. 
Brian Vincent, a driver and the 
employee representative on the 
board, confirms a change from the 
council days when managers 
appeared intent on distancing 
themselves from the workforce. 
Yet discipline has been tightened. 

Competition from private compa- 
nies may have provided the spur 
for municipally owned operators to 
improve standards - but even so 
Industry observers agree that 
Plymouth Citybus has achieved a 
remarkable transformation. 


De Villiers: the man to decide 
whether Disney will beam up 

Etienne de Villiers, managing 
director of The Walt Disney 
Company in the UK, has been 
promoted to the newly-created 
post of president, interna timal 
television for Walt Disney Tele- 
vision and Telecommunica- 

De ViBiers, a qualified civil 
engineer and Rhodes scholar 
who was once responsible for 
running South Africa’s largest 
cinema chain, is at the 
mome nt mainly in charge of 
international sales, marketing 
and distribution of Disney pro- 
gramming to broadcasters. 

The Job at the head of the 
newly created division will 
involve responsibility for tele- 
vision production and a num- 
ber of international television 
businesses previously managed 

as separate entities, such as 
pay-TV, satellite television and 

One of the important tasks of 
the new division will be to con- 
centrate on the establishment 
of Disney family channels 
throughout Europe and in 
other parts of the world. 

In August, Disney 
announced its first significant 
new media Investment in 
Europe - a plan to launch a 
German satellite television 
phanTiri in January in partner- 
ship with CLT, the Luxem- 
bourg-based international 
broadcaster. It was made (dear 
at the time that the deal could 
be a model for other satellite 
channels based on family 

ophir taiiiiinjn t. 

De Villiers said yesterday 

that he hoped to decide by 
Christmas whether or not to 
launch a Disney-backed satel- 
lite channel in the UK. 

“We have finished the quali- 
tative research and are now 
working on the quantitative 
research," said de Villiers, who 
first Joined Disney in 1988 as 
president of Buena Vista Inter- 
national, the main progr a mme 

sales arm. 

The company wants to try to 
establish how many people 
would watch and what they 
would pay for a Disney chan- 
nel on satellite and cable. 
Apart from deciding whether 
or not to go ahead, de Villiers 
is also considering whether 
such a UK channel should be 
launched by Disney alone or 
with partners. 

■ Peter Fhfflipson, 
commercial director of FIRST 
Owners Abroad, has been 
appointed to the board. 

■ Julian Blasters has been 

inar fcBiin g ' director of the ELS 

■ Frank Brake haa been 
appointed group chief 
executive of BRAKE BROS; he 
is succeeded as md of Brakes 
Foodserrice Division by 

Christopher Brake and Peter 
Enunens, as Joint mds. 

■ Paula Vennells. formerly 
product/reteUing director of 
Dixons Stores Group, has been 

appointed mar keting director 

■ Ken Vowle s (righ t), md of 

generation wholesale division, 

ling been appointed to the main 

■ Tony Brill, director of 
personnel, has been promoted 
to gr» y‘i » director of res ourc es 

■ Jim McCarthy, formerly 
retail director, has heen 
appointed chief executive and 
David Crellin financial director 
of T&S STORES on the 

retirement in December of md 
Stephen Boddice- 

Campbell shows his colours at Courtaulds 

(Gordon Campbell. 48, who has 
been running Courtaulds 
fibres and chemicals business, 
has been appointed deputy 
chief executive (operations) 
and made responsible for the 
group's three main businesses. 
The directors responsible for 
these areas will, in future, 
report to him. 

Since the demerger in 1990, 
Courtaulds has reorganised its 
business from five divisions 
Into three and Campbell’s pro- 
motion is one of several 
changes as the international 
rfiftwrinaia group completes the 
reorganisation of its manage- 
ment structure which began to 


Under the old regime, execu- 
tives had been responsible for 
various parts of the world as 
well as various products. 
Under the new structure 

responsibilities for operations 
and development are being sep- 
arated with a deputy chief 
executive responsible for each, 
and with geographic and busi- 
ness lin es clarified. 

Eryl Morris, 51, who was 
responsible for coating and the 
Far East until earlier this year, 
has been appointed deputy 
rhipf executive (development) 
with responsibility for corpo- 
rate development, planning 
and research. His brief 
Includes responsiMlities for all 
regions with, opportuni ties for 
expansion — Far East, East 
Europe and Latin America.^ 

NeviBe Petersen, 54, who had 

hem chief executive of Gourt- 
ffiMc ' European coatings busi- 
ness, becomes responsible for 
the group’s worldwide coatmgs 
operations and will have 
Spring to him the chief exec- 

utives of the various overseas 
coatings businesses. 

David Wilkinson, 55, who 
joined Courtaulds in 196L has 
been put in charge of the fibres 
business and will join the main 
Courtaulds board at the start 
of next year. 

Courtaulds has also made 
several changes to its senior 
management team below board 
level. Peter Feam takes over as 
chief executive of the Euro- 
pean coatings business next 
April and Bill McPherson is 
moving to Singapore to be 
cbtef executive of the Asia 
Pacific coatings business. 

Peter Rodgers is appointed 
chief executive of Courtaulds 
Chemicals from January 1 and 
will report to Gordon Camp- 
bell Colin Wel&rd is to take 
over as chief executive of 


Robert Maxted is on the 
lookout for a new company fol- 
lowing his decision to step 
down from the hoard of Pillar, 
the property investment com- 
pany be built during the early 
1990s and which was floated 
earlier this year. 

Maxted's departure follows 
the arrival in the summer of 
Raymond Mould and Patrick 
Vaughan, the high -profile duo 
who led the buy-out of Arling- 
ton Securities from British 
Aerospace in 1989 and who are 
now chairman and chief execu- 
tive of Pillar. 

Maxted stepped aside to 
become property director, but 
having been in the chief execu- 
tive’s shoes since the compa- 
ny’s formation in 1991 found 
the new role too constricting. 

Masted has a long history in 
the property business. In 1987 
he sold his private company 
Mount Row to Speyhawk, the 
developer which went into 
receivership last May. 

However, he left Speyhawk 
three years before its collapse 
and set up Pillar , which was 
originally conceived as a vul- 
ture fund picking up institu- 
tional-quality assets as the 
prope rt y market crumbled. 

“I’m looking for another 
vehicle, preferably in the pub- 
lic sector," comments Maxted. 
“I want to be more of my own 
boss again.” 

■ Andrew Cracknell, who was 
appointed worldwide executive 
creative director of the Saatchi 
& Saatchi -owned Bates (for- 
merly BSB) advertising agency 
network less than a year ago, 
has left the company. Bates 
says Cracknell, 48, had left 
“due to an as yet unresolved 
contractual dispute". 

Cracknell has been part of 
the New York-based team, 
headed by Michael Bungey. 
chief executive, which has 
been attempting to inject new 
life into the flagging US part of 
the network. Bungey says he 
views Cracknell’s departure, 
after seven years with the 
agency, with “deep regret”. 

■ G raham Fetors las left 
GRASEBY to set up his own 

■ John Dawson, techn ical 
direc tor of YORKSHIRE 
CHEMICALS, has retired for 
health reasons. 

■ Gordon Harman, finance 
director of EUROCAMP who 
helped steer the company 
through its flotation in 1991, 

has announced that he will 
retire next year, when he will 

become non-executive. 

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TV* Matktl VtadOT W ifxnrf brntaa ■ F«J*nd»! nA l 

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Accumti «re nrnmaBy opened whkn 72 houre 
So* our up+D-daw pica Sul la 9pm an Tofatm peer MS 

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But of course he never wflL He cannot forget those friends who 
flew with him, who fought with him and who sometimes died in the 
aircraft beside him. ffiis man who cannot forget will never be quite 
the same again, w3i never be the same as other people. Sometimes 
when the screaming and the nightmares get too bad, we taks him into 
one of our homes tor treatment and to give his family a little respite. 

Thera are thousands of people from ail three Services whose whole 

nearfy 4,000 of them, and there am many more who need oor help. 
This is an appeal to you for help, for help to go on doing what we are 
doing, for help to do even more. Please. A cheque, or 
a legacy should you be able to be that generous. 

They tried toghre more than they could. 
Please give as much as yon can. 


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ETHNIK3 KEPHALEOU S.A., Administration of Assets end Liabilities, of 1 
Skotdenloo Stf., Athens. Greece, in its capacity as Liquidator of “ROKA 
INDUSTRIAL ENTERPRISES S^V". a comp an y with is icgHUrcd office in Adas, 
Grace, (the Company), presently coder special Hqnhhabm according lo the pnwbkm 
of Section 46a of Law 1892/1990. invites interested parties to submit within twenty 
(20) days from the publication of dua notice. Non -binding written declarations of 
imerast for the purchase of any or both of the groups of assets mentioned below, 

The Company was csabUahad in 1973 and was in operation until 1993, when it became 
bankrupt. It was placed under -special liquidation' accord mg to the pnnrDkms of ankle 
4&i of L. 1892/1990 in September 1994. Us objectives included the establishment & 
op erat ion of a cotton gin, the production or fibres (synthetic £ natural), the prodncoon 
of Gnisbcd garments, the marketing of ha products & any caber products related to 
natural £ synthetic fibres at borne A abroad, the rcprescnlnrioc of Greek & foreign 
enterprises and Ibc participation in related enterprises. 

The Company's bead office is in Athens (3 Iktiaon Street), while its factory is in 
Larissa, at -Grckia- in the region of Koukiuri. at the 6th Km of the Notional Road of 
Larissa - Thessaloniki. The factory was [taxed to "INCO GMBH IMPORT-EXPORT", 
a Munich-based limited lability company, no 23.12.1988 far n period of nine years. U 
amenity in operation. 

The assets bong offered for sale ioduilct 

(a) A cotton spinning and weaving mill, consisting of several buildings, of 
apptvximueli 16,000 nr 1 , standing on a plot of S2.914.I2 m' approx., consarniiig 
machinery mechanical equipment, etc. This is located in Larissa as mentioned 

(bl A plw of bod, adjoining the factory plot, the loud erca of which amounts to approx. 
Ln22Km > . TUs is located in the same area as the factory. 


The rale of the assets of (be Company wilt take place by way of Public Auction in 
accordance with the provisions of Section 4ba ol Law IS92/1990 as supplemented by 
att. 14 of l_2000'tv91 and attJ3 of I-2224M994 articles and the terms set out in the 
Invitation to Tender for the highest hid for the purchase of the above assets, to be 
pubtiahed in the Greek and foreign press on the dates provided by Lew. 

for the sobaiistion of Declarations of Interest as well as in order to obtain a copy of the 
Offering Memorandum for each or the above groups of assets please conun tire 
Liquaditoc. " ETHNIKJ KEPHALEOU SA Admin rural ion of Assets and IJahitilica, L 
Skonlenioa Str. Athens 103 bl. GREECE. TcL +30-1 -323. 14.B4 - 87 Fax: +30-1- 
321.97X8 fattnuwa Mis. Marika FnmgaJris) or the Liquidator's agent, Mr. Irxmhln 
Arhontis- Lawyer. 2 Ftiaou str, 412-22 Larissa, Tel. +30-41-220536, Fax +30-41- 


S A V ! L 5 R O W 

H A N D ' A . ! L O ft £ D t N c N G L A N D 


financial times 


2ti 1994 


Producers are hoping to tap a growing market 
for natural fibres, writes Alison Maitland 

High hopes 

A rumbling in 
the waterworks 

T o the untrained eye 
they look like bales of 
straw. But the bundles 
of long, greyish fibre 
drying in the late autumn sun- 
shine on 40 farms across south- 
east England are attracting an 
unusually high degree of 

The fibre is hemp, part of the 
cannabis family, a centuries- 
old crop which is making a 
comeback in Europe and the 
US as an ecologically friendly 
raw material for clothing and 

The association with the 
dope-smoking 1970s meant that 
not only farmers' hopes for the 
crop were riding high when the 
first commercial plants 
appeared in the UK last year. 
But the youngsters who raided 
a field and filled dustbin bags 
with pLant tops were disap- 
pointed. “This is a low narcotic 
variety.” explains lan Low, a 
director of Hemcore. the UK’s 
only hemp merchant. "You’d 
have to smoke 50 acres to get 

Hemcore, set up 18 months 
ago by an Essex fanner and a 
group of agricultural mer- 
chants, persuaded the Home 
Office to license its first 1.500 
acres of hemp last year. It 
hopes this will give it a lead in 
the growing market for natural 
fibres - particularly in the US 
and Germany. Neither country 
permits domestic production 
because of the association with 

Yet hemp's roots go back to 

for hemp 

Jane Martinson on attracting 
tourists to a sewage plant 

the Middle Ages, when it was 
grown widely in East Anglia. It 
was used in Europe for ropes, 
sails and sacking until early 
this century, when it was 
ousted by imported cotton and 

Hemcore is hoping to turn 
the wheel full circle, reaping 
capital from the fact that the 
first jeans were made of hemp 
in early 19th-century America: 
It has contacted Levi Strauss, 
the leading US jeans manufac- 
turer, which is “very inter- 
ested” In the fibre, says Low. 

He admits Hemcore has 
some way to go in developing 
the technology to make hemp 
soft and stretchy. It is collabo- 
rating with flax processors in 
Northern Ireland on refining 
the coarse fibres. 

S ome textile agreements 
are already under way, 
however. Esprit, an inter- 
national fashion business 
based in San Francisco, plans 
to launch bags, jackets, shirts 
and skirts made of hemp and 
hemp-and-wool mixtures next 
year as part of its “Ecollec- 
tion". One of its suppliers is 
Evergreen, a Yorkshire textile 
company which buys its hemp 
from Hemcore. 

“Hemp fits in with our envi- 
ronmental objectives.” says 
Lynda Grose, research director 
for the Ecollection. “It is 
grown with minim al watering 
and no pesticides and herbi- 
cides. It is also very durable.” 
The crop, planted in late 

spring, surges to about IGft in 
three months. Before p lanting, 
the soil has to be prepared 
with fertiliser because hemp 
takes up a lot of nutrients. But 
no chemical sprays are needed 
as the plants are hardy and 
grow quickly enough to out- 
smart weeds. 

The powerful roots break up 
the sod, leaving it fertile for 
the next crop. Experience in 
east Europe, where hemp was 
an important industrial crop 
before Hie break-up of the 
Soviet Union, suggests that 
yields of wheat grown in fields 
where hemp has previously 
been cultivated are 0.7 tonnes a 
hectare higher than those 
achieved following any other 
rotational crop. Hemp roots are 
also rapidly biodegradable, 
making ploughing easy. 

The revival of interest in 
fibre crops in the European 
Union springs both from grow- 
ing consum er demand far “nat- 
ural" clothes and from [arm 
policy reforms. In France, Italy 
and Spain, hemp survived the 
onslaught of imported fibres 
earlier this century and contin- 
ued to be grown for paper pulp 

But the introduction two 
years ago of set-aside, the pol- 
icy which obliges EU farmers 
to take land out of food produc- 
tion. has boosted the search for 
new markets for industrial 
crops such as hemp. 

The European Commission 
provides generous subsidies of 
£245 an acre for fibre crops and 


M anagers of a sewage 
treatment plant to 
south-east Australia 
are considering plans to turn it 
into a tourist attraction. 

The 10351 ha plant - which 
produces more beef than any 
farm in the region - treats 55 
per cent of the wastewater gen- 
erated by the city of Mel- 
bourne. Natural purification 
methods rather than chemical 
treatment are used to produce 
effluent, which is deposited in 
Fort Phillip Bay. Some 18,000 
cattle graze the grass fertilised 
by raw sewage; livestock gen- 
erated just over A$3m (£1.4m) 
in income last year. 

Much of the sewage is 
treated in lagoons, which cover 
1,667 ha at the Werribee site, 35 
kxn south-west of Melbourne. 
Three large lagoons built in 
the past six years have been 
designed to control odour and 
produce biogas. Mechanical 
aerators speed up the process 
of digestion and reduce odour, 
while covers are being 
installed to capture methane 
and other odorous gases. The 
methane will eventually be 
burnt off to generate power. 

The plan to create an "eco- 
tourist park" focuses on 600 ha 
of older lagoons. Over 250 spe- 
cies of birds are found around 
them. Many rare species have 
been recorded, including up to 
50 per cent of the world's total 
of the orange-bellied parrot. 

The area is listed by the 
International Union for the 
Conservation of Nature as a 
wetland of international impor- 

A study conducted this sum- 
mer by Melbourne Parks and 
Waterways claimed the sewage 
plant could attract up to 
160.000 tourists a year if devel- 
oped as an e co-tourist park. 
The organisation manages a 
funding programme which 
aims to encourage community 
use of open spaces and the 
preservation of wildlife. Last 
year it allocated A$6.2m to 
such schemes. 

■ 5* : ; #l®i 

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Stable future: fast powth and durabtty make hemp vtabto tor use in products from horse bedding to textiles 

exempts such crops from set- 
aside rules. Cereal fanners 
who grow flax or hemp ran 
thus reduce the overall amount 
of land they have to leave idle. 

If “green" textiles look like 
being the most immediately 
lucrative market for hemp, 
paper-making is likely to 
absorb the biggest volumes. 
The long fibres are particularly 
suited to thin or open-textured 
paper, such as cigarette paper, 
t eabags or coffee filters. They 
can also be used to strengthen 
recycled paper. 

A FI 10m (£3.7m) four-year 
project funded by the Dutch 
government recently con- 
cluded that hemp was an eco- 
nomically viable crop for mak- 
ing anything from bank notes 
to newsprint 

A novel mechanical process- 
ing technique developed by the 
Dutch Land Organisation, 
which carried out the research, 
is attracting interest from 
paper producers in Australia, 
New Zealand, Canada. Sweden 
and the UK. 

Thea van Kemenade, project 
coordinator, said hemp could 
also be used for building mate- 
rials and as a reinforcing agent 
in plastic car components, “1 
would expect hemp to make a 
big comeback," she said. 

Earlier this month, the UK 
government announced a 
£100,000 three-year grant to 
develop new markets for natu- 
ral fibres such as hemp and 
flqy . 

Siisoe, the government- 
funded agricultural research 





London - 21 & 22 November 1994 

This high-level FT conference brings together a most authoritative panel of speakers 
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Strategic Alliances - The Way Forward for Europe’s Petrochemical Industry? 
The Potential of the Asia-Pacific market — International Perspectives 

Korea's Presence in Asian Petrochemicals 

Expanding Petrochemical Capacity in the Middle East 


• Mr Bob Wilson 


Exxon Chemical Europe Inc 

• Mr Juha Rantanen 
Chief Executive Officer 
Borealis Holding A/S 

• Mr Mohammad Al-Kathiri 
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Mr Bryan K Sanderson 
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Mr Janies E Fligg 

Executive Vice President, Chemicals Sector 

Amoco Corporation 


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station, has- developed a 
mafhiwp to strip the bark off 
the stem, and extract the fibre 
from these crops. Its aim is to 
enable individual terms to pro- 
cess their own hemp into crude 
fibre, which could then be 
turned into padding and stuff- 
ing for the furniture industry. 

“If we can make full use of 
aD the material from the plant, 
it will be in the top league." 
said Hairy Gilbertson, natural- 
fibres expert at Siisoe. 

Hemcore itself is investiga- 
ting uses for other parts ot the 
plant such as the seeds, whose 
oil is suitable for cosmetics. 

“If we look into the next cen- 
tury. I think it will he very 
big." says Low. “There could 
be tens or hundreds of thou- 
sands of hectares of hemp.” 

But when vision threatens to 
overcome reality. Low points 
out that one of the company's 
best markets today is decidedly 

Hemp, being highly absor- 
bent is increasingly popular in 
Germany and Britain as bed- 
ding for horses. 

Melbourne Water, the state- 
owned authority which man- 
ages Werribee, says there is 
“definite commercial potential 
there" and has commissioned a 
full economic analysis or the 

There are a number of 
advantages to the plan, not 
least enhanced public rela- 
tions. Melbourne's sewers, 
with their network of old brick 
tunnels, suffered three serious 
collapses two years ago. Sew- 
age spilled into a local river 
and it took more than three 
months to stem the flow. 

More recently the Environ- 
mental Protection Agency, the 
government watchdog, has 
decreed that checks on effluent 
discharges into Port Phillip 
Bay are to be made much more 
stringent by 200>i. Melbourne 
Water has committed itself to 
complying with the regulations 
by 1997. It has also earmarked 
AS32m for upgrading its two 
major treatment plants. 

The impact on wildlife of a 
significant increase in visitor 
numbers is causing some con- 
cern, however. Alex Sandies, 
the wastewater treatment man- 
ager at Werribee, says birds 
are attracted by the food, secu- 
rity and cairn of the plant. 
“The lakes near here tend to be 
full of waterskiers and other 

The plan has some support 
3mong environment groups. 
Karri Giles, water catchment 
manager for Friends of the 
Earth to Australia, says: "We 
are positive as long as it is 
done sensitively." 

However, the proposal may 
he delayed by the shake-up 
planned for Melbourne Water 
by a state government keen on 
privatisation. It was to appear 
before the authority's board in 

Nonetheless. Sandies feels 
the plan will be implemented. 
Werribee treatment plant could 
become part of a "complete 
weekend package" for Mel- 
bourne’s tourists, he says. 

O ne of Europe's biggest 
importers of hard- 
woods is backing a 
Dutch government initiative to 
control the trade in Brazilian 
mahogany under a United 
Nations convention. 

Timbmet, of Oxford, has sur- 
prised environmentalists by 
going against its trade associa- 
tion and supporting a proposal 
to declare officially that Brazil- 
ian mahogany is an endan- 
gered species. 

The UK is the second biggest 
consumer of the wood, import- 
ing about 35 per cent of Bra- 
zil's production. Forty per cent 
goes to the US. Th e Worl dwide 
Fund for Nature (WWF) says 
the trees, which grow slowly, 
are on the verge of extinction. 

“Brazilian mahogany will 
become a thing of the past if 
the trade continues extracting 
logs at present volumes In the 
way that it does," says Francis 
Sullivan, forest ry conservation 
officer at WWF UK. 

Daniel Kemp, chairman of 
Timbmet, says the proposed 
listing will not hamper trade. 
"But we feel there will be more 
control and in the long term 
that will be good for business." 

The Dutch government will 
propose the listing at next 
month’s meeting of the Con- 
vention on the International 
Trade in Endangered Species 
(Cites) in Florida. 

Cites has a two-tier list of 
endangered species. Appendix I 
includes those which are virtu- 

ally extinct and to which all 
trade is banned, such as ivory, 
some rare birds and Brazilian 
rosewood. Species listed on 
Appendix a can be traded but 
under restrictions. If the Dutch 
succeed and Brazilian mahog- 
any joins this list, it would 
compel the Brazilian govern- 
ment to ensure that the trade 
does not harm the species. 
Importers would have to obtain 
export permits from Brazil. 

The UK Timber Trade Feder- 
ation is against a listing. It 
says there is not enough scien- 
tific evidence to justify it and 
Brazil does not support the ini- 
tiative. Timbmet remains a 
member of the federation. 

Peter Knight 

The flight from Hong Kong was exhausting. 

Like a godsend, Rapiiael showed up with the perfect cure far jet lag. 

Or was it the butler at The St. Regis? 

tn StBAPx umni Cnumt 

The infurnuUon you iJc will he held by m and m.iy K: n-»il in krep you Informed rf FT pmSucii and wed 
hy ether •elected quality mmpaiuc-t far mailing ptuiMvo. 


HFTO*VINU6 ATSSTHStTfflT. ICT YORK. VORK 1IB2 - TU£FHOt«*l' ti-*,.* . 

) i'll 

Mahogany controls loom ' 

fe | 






N ot many months 
*eo it was 
suggested in this 
column that Bet- 
ween The lines on BBCl might 
be the best police series to 
appear on British television 
since Z Cars. How quickly 
things change. Today. Between 
The lines is not only not the 
best police series, it is not even 
second best nVs Cracker is 
dearly superior, and even The 
BUI, also on FTV, is better. 

That "even" is probably not 
quite feir, since The Bill has 
always been exceDent, but as a 
half-hour programme with 
three episodes a week you 
would not normally expect it 
to bear comparison with a 
series such as Between The 
lines which is made in limited 
runs, on bigger budgets, with 
episodes lasting 55 minutes. 

Yet The Bill is, at present 
(excluding its lOtb-anniversaxy 
double- length special which, as 
so often in these cases, was an 
inferior episode) doing consid- 
erably better than Between The 
Lines. Whatever happened? 

ft is probable that Between 
The lines was not planned 
from the outset as a long-run- 
ning series in the way that, 
say. The Sweeney was, but 
when the first batch was so 
well received it must have 
seemed almost imperative to 
make more. The BBC is not so 
flush with good middlebrow 
drama that it can afford to 
ignore a success like that 
For some reason, however, it 

Television / Christopher Dunkley 

Reflections on the sleaze factor 

was decided for thin new series 
to remove the central charac- 
ters from the police c orrupti on 
squad in which they had been 
working and bring them out 
into the private sector. This 
has proved disastrous. Previ- 
ously we had intricate 
plots which cleverly explored 
the way in which bureaucra- 
cies operate and also vividly 
fllustrated the “sleaze factor" 
that has become such a feature 
Of B ritish public life. 

How the scripts have 
slack, banal and femDiar. Tony 
Clark takes a job in, for 
instance, Tunisia, so nmt we 
get expenses-paid foreign trips 
just LDce all those other wHpc 
or he takes a job in hotel secu- 
rity and, ho hum, there is the 
statutory eha» through a busy 
kitchen. How are the mighty 


At the peak of its achieve- 
ment Between The lines had a 
modicum of home-life interest 
which added a lot to the for- 
mula because Mo (Siobhan 
Redmond) proved to be a les- 
bian, Tony (Neal Pearson) suf- 
fered from something 
approaching satyriasis, and 
Harry (Tom Georgeson, who so 
often steals these programmes 
with his fag-puffing sergeant) 

The team from The Bill make an arrest: Hating with rf w wges in public morality 

went home to a wife who was 
dying. None of this affected the 
meat of the scripts, until 
Tony's great affair with the 
Francesca Anni e character, 
and since she was in govern- 
ment security that was legiti- 

mate. But now home life is 
being used in what looks like 
an attempt to make up for lack 
of interest in the job, and it 
feels a bit desperate. 

Of course, there Is no law 
saying that a series about 

police personnel cannot be cen- 
trally Interested in the private 
lives of its characters - think 
of Juliet Bravo. But it is best to 
set out in that direction from 
the start, as Cracker did. In the 
first episode of Z Cars in Janu- 

ary 1962 in a conversation 
about a murdered colleague. 
Sergeant John Watt, talking to 
Inspector Charlie Barlow about 
the likelihood of the killer 
being suitably punished, 
referred bitterly to the police 
psychiatrist as a “trick 
cyclist". Three decades later 
the trick cyclist has become 
the hero, albeit a deeply flawed 
hero, of the latest police series. 

Here home life is just as 
important to the scripts as 
police work, sometimes more 
so. Furthermore, it is the rela- 
tionships awi con ve rs ations in 
the private life of our hero, 
Fitz, so splendidly embodied by 
Robbie Coltrane, which pro- 
vide much of the entertain- 

Fitz is a rogue and a bastard, 
but a witty rogue and a cun- 
ning bastard. It is impossible 
not to laugh when you watch 
him in next Monday's episode, 
in front of the bathroom mir- 
ror, rehearsing the argument 
he will use on his poor wife, 
Judith (Barbara Flynn, appeal- 
ing and fanoable as ever), then 
promptly going downstairs and 
repeating it word for word, 
even though you recognise 
how self-serving and manipula- 
tive he is being. 

In Britain in 1994 television 
police series serve much the 
same function as cinemn west- 
erns did in the US in the 1940s 
and 1350s. Though popular 
because they offer the audi- 
ence such a familiar formula, 
they allow within that formula 
immense scope for writers and 
directors to deal with almost 
an ything they wish. 

As with westerns, police 
series can reflect rfiflngpff in 
the nation’s perception of its 

The formula allows 
immense scope for 
writers and directors 
to deal with almost 
anything they wish 

own image. In The Bill last 
week there was a startlingly 
grim and honest a dmiss ion 
from a high-ranking officer: 
“The war on drugs is already 
lost... all we can do is go on 
pushing people through the 
revolving doors . . 

Above all. series of this kind 
provide a place for dealing 
with changes in public moral- 
ity in a way that many viewers 

seem to feel is less forbidding 
than that found in so many 
current affairs programmes. 

Unsurprisingly. British tele- 
vision is not alone in this. 
NYPD Blue on Channel 4 
proves that much the same 
thing happens in the US and 
Le Cop U on BBG2 last week 
gave an idea of what you 
might see in France. If we 
accept that these productions 
provide more or Iks accurate 
reflections of the mores in the 
countries concerned, the eye- 
opening fact is that Britain, for 
all its supposed moral turpi- 
tude. is not as far down the 
rood as those other countries. 

Both productions hi g hli g hted 
a relativism which is frighten- 
ing for anyone who believes 
that maintenance of the rule of 
law is the foundation of any 
civilised society. In these dra- 
mas the police are better than 
the bad guys, but only just. 

In Le Cop 17 the rascally old 
pair of buddies in the Mont- 
martre district are presented 
as superior to their go-getting 
modem replacements because 
they take smaller kickbacks. In 
NYPD Blue you would often 
have difficulty slipping a razor 
blade between the morals of 
the police and those of the 

It is scant comfort, perhaps, 
but judging from these police 
dramas, Britain has not yet 
slipped so far down the vortex 
as some other countries ... or 
are we just better at covering 
it up? 

Theatre /Alastair Macaulay 

Gruesome Gaucho 
draws a gasp 

O ne of the two most 
remarkable features of 
Dong lode’s new play, 
Gaucho* is the role of the 
protagonist. Declan Moss. A work- 
ing-class Kn gBshman, 40 year, 
educated at Oxford, be has become 
the world’s pre-eminent drug 
baron. Is reputed to have given 
money to the IRA, ami currently 
lives safely on a little island in file 

And yet money is not Us goal. He 
Is a perpetual outsider, a Utopian, 
who attacks middle-class values 
and “the system" and who hopes 
for the day when a new generation 
will reorder society. When attacked 
about file done by drags, 

he replies that "drugs are a symp- 
tom, not the cause”, and he takes 
them plentifully himself. They are 
part of Us entry into an alternative 
systen, and into Us greatest goat 

All kinds of awkward tensions 
must exist within and around such 
a character, and Lode’s play inves- 
tigates a number of them. During 
the play, he and his beautiful 
Romanian wife Yana are joined in 
their Idyllic island retreat by three 
iff his old Oxford cronies - one of 
whom, Stephanie, is a journalist, 
accompanied by ho* photographer, 

They help, by accident and by 
design, to pose questions about 
their host. How serious can 
Declan’s Utopianism really be? Are 
his exploitations really Iks selfish 
or less cruel than those of the sys- 
tem he loathes? 

Questions, however, arise about 
the rest iff them too. How come 
they, nil Hire Declan, are so hooked 
on Oxford nostalgia? They are far 
from exemplary themselves, and 
indeed Lode loads the dice rather 
too heavily ag a i ns t two of them. 
Stephanie is a selfish money-wor- 
ried middle-class Tory voter; 
another of the cronies, Spencer, is a 
feDed Tory candidate (among his 
other failures); and both are alco- 
holics. Tories are always easy tar- 
gets Tor a good joke and a good 
hate, and It is not hard for Declan 

to Look morally pretty serious by 

In the first scene, before the oth- 
ers arrive, we understand that 
Yana som eti mes chains Hm as part 
of love-making. "One day,” she 
tells him, “you will find yourself 
drained up and I won’t be there 
any more.” At the time it seems she 
mmhb she might simply chain and 
abandon him. But, as the play 
develops, other interpretations 
emerge. Yet - skilful iff Lode - we 
do not realise how her words pre- 
pare us for the play’s raid. 

ft is also soon apparent that their 
Idyll is threatened. And first one, 
then another, of their visitors 
proves duplicitous. (Lucie never 
really convinces us, actually, that 
Sedan - who insists that he trusts 
nobody — would invite this ques- 
tionable bunch of ex-chums to his 
island.) This leads to the other 
extraordinary feature of the play - 
in which, during one of those 10- 
mhmte gunpoint climaxes that 
make me thrash around in my seat 
in terror. Declan and Yana punish 
the first traitor by means so origi- 
nal and grotesque that the audi- 
ence gasps. 

L ucie directs, and Tim Mcln- 
n emy is excellent as Declan, 
catching both violence and 
calm, rebellion and idealism, cyni- 
cism and sexuality, phis a bint iff 
the trapped animal. 

Only one of his big speeches 
sounds like the set piece it is, amid 
a performance that is otherwise a 
model of complex, assured natural- 

In the performances of the five 
actors who support him (Julia 
Lane, Phyllis Logan, Dominic Jeph- 
cott, Kate Fahy, Grant Masters) it 
is slightly easier to be reminded of 
the theatrical artifice of the whole 
setup. But the play is full of sus- 
pense. Even when yon guess what 
may happen next - there are dues 
to prep a re yon for Act One’s grue- 
some eKnunc - you want to see how 
it wiD happen. 

At the Hampstead Theatre, NWS. 

Opera/Richard Fairman 

Semi-comic King Kong takes powerful grip 

I t is as though an ancient Greek 
tragedian has completed his tril- 
ogy and is tu rning his hand to 
li ghter thing s. Harrison Birtwistle, 

who dealt so massively with myth 
and ritual in The Mask of Orpheus 
and Gawam, has returned to cast a 
wry backward glance over similar 
material for his new semi-comic 

A year ago it looked as if The 
Second Mrs Bong might not reach 
the stage as intended. The Arts 
Council had singled out Glynde- 
boume Touring Opera to lose its 
subsidy, but after much argument 
the company won a reprieve - an 
outcome which is starting to look as 
much of a ritual as anything In 
Birtwistle’s operas. This autumn’s 
GTO tour includes revivals of Yev- 
geny Onegm and H barbiere di Swig- 
ha, with thte Birtwistle premiere in 
pride of place. 

Hie idea of Eng Kong came from ' 
the opera’s librettist, Russell 
Hoban. He had always loved the 
film and found that the composer 
had, too. As a scenario, they envis- 
aged souls meeting in the world of 
shadows, each choosing characters 
according to his own partiality. 
Hoban was obsessed by Vermeer’s 
“Girl with a Pearl Earring”. Birt- 
wistle - true to form - wanted 
Orpheus and Eurydice. Goebbels 
was going to put in an appearance 
at one point, but then they decided 
against it. Other sundry dean souls 
include a Texan film producer and 
yn Indian spiritualist. 

There is no logic to the story. 
Characters from different times and 
places are thrown together, merely 
because their creators want to 
amuse themselves seeing what 
might happen. The girl with the 
pearl earring from Vermeer’s por- 
trait is soon reclining in a 21 st-cen- 
tury firing-room, zapping the chan- 
nels on her wall-sized television, 
watching repeats of nid films Him 
Brief Encounter, a British Rail docu- 
mentary and - yes - King Bong. 

At first it seems that Birtwistle, 
tongue-in-cheek, is going to parody 
himself. (The scene of the shooting, 
repeated over and over, sa t irizes the 
ritualistic repetitions of The Mask 
qf Orpheus.) Then the tone falters. 
Dense mists of sound build up in 

Deborah York in Harrison Birtwistle's The Second Un Kong*: the music finds Its sense of direction in the second act 

the orchestra, submerging any 
sharpness of mind and obscuring 
the words, despite the authoritative 
presence iff Elgar Howarth in the 
pit A scene involving a computer 
search for Eng Kong is overlong 
and woefolly heavy-handed. A fight 
scene rinks to the weakest knock- 
about hirm n n r 

By the interval it looks as though 
the opera is lost, but come the sec- 
ond act, composer and librettist 
unexpectedly nail the right style - 
mythic pretension played up one 
moment, brought down to earth 
with a comic bump the next Setting 

out in search of the girl with the 
peart, Kong and Orpheus encounter 
first a sphinx with a sharp ear for 
one-liners and then a character 
raiipd the Death iff Kong, leading to 
a superhuman struggle of ideas 
where the issues slug it out on 
stage. AD thin ig more entertaining. 

It helps, crucially, that now the 
words can be heard. Philip Lan- 
gridge is clarity itself as Kong, a 
bizarre addition to gallery of 
operatic portrayals. Nuala Willis is 
amusingly dead-pan as the Sphinx. 
Mlnhaal rihanro grngc b eautifully 88 
the counter-tenor Orpheus, espe- 

cially after he has been beheaded 
(shades of Gawain). Helen Field 
readies tirelessly for the tig) notes 
as Vermeer’s Peart. Among some 
m ag -i r ai rights in Tom Cairns' pro- 
duction are two h aunti ng scenes in 
which Anubis rows the souls back 
and forth across the waters of the 

Above all, the music finds its 
sense of direction In the second act 
Birtwistle shapes the act in a single 
arc, starting JZfop-like from a few 
ideas swirling in deep soundwaves, 
through the comedy of the central 
scenes, to a peroration of primeval 

power underpinning what I take to 
be the opera's serious message: that 
ideas live on. even though people 
may die. like so many new operas, 
it asks to be seen half a dozen 
times, but its very complexity 
means it Is unlikely to get the 
chance. That is the tragic irony of 
the modem opera composer. 

Sponsored by The Baring Founda- 
tion and the John S Cohen Founda- 
tion. GTO at Giyndebotune until 
October 29, then on tour to Oxford, 
Norwich, Plymouth, Woking and 


er Tonight Eve Quetar conducts 
i Lyubimov's production of 
mfa. Frl, next Tues and Sat 
iven Mercurio conducts JQrgen 
se’s new production of La 
data, with cast headed by Marisa 

di. Michael Rees Davis and 
>mas Mohr. Sat Dreyfus, dance 
ma by George Whyte aid Valery 
tov, with music by Schnittke, 
t revival of Glan-Cario Del 
naco’s production of La fandulla 

West, starring Giuseppe 

comlnL More Nicolai Gedda song 
rtal (0228-773687) 


jper Tomorrow, Sun, Tues; 
offer’s production of 
Belshazzar. Frt, More Die 
»e. Sat La Cenerentola 

bast Sat, Sun: Michel 
conducts Dresden 
jnic Orchestra In works by 
Beethoven and Franck, 

9 soloist Bruno 

Leonardo Gefber (0351-486 6666) 


Pates des Sports Tonight, 
tomorrow: Sergiu Commissiona 
conducts Orchestra National 
Bordeaux Aquitaine In Brahms' First 
Piano Concerto (Grigory Sokolov) 
and Rimsky- Korsakov's 
Sheherazade. Sun afternoon (at 
Grand-Theatre): Aten Lombard 
conducts works by Mozart and 
Schubert (5648 5854) 


Pt ift afTn o nle Tonight: Thomas 
Hengelbrock conducts Freiburg 
Baroque Orchestra in three of 
Bach’s Brandenburg Concertos, plus 
music by Vivaldi. Tomorrow: 

Yevgeny Svetianov conducts 
Russian State Symphony Orchestra 
in works by Tchaikovsky and 
Rakhmarrinov. Frt Kurt Sanderflng 
conducts Cologne Rado Symphony 
Orchestra In Beethoven, 
Shostakovich and Brahms, with 
cellist Lynn Harrell. Sat Elena 
Beshkkova and friends play 
chamber music by Bartok, Brahms 
and Hindemith. More Odessa 
Philharmonic Orchestra, with ceffist 
Matt Habnovftz (0221-2801) 

Opemhaus Tonight Hander s 
Agrippina. Frt Edda Moser song 
recitaL Sat Peer Gyrrt 
choreographed by Jochen Ulrich. 
Next TUbs: Lortring's Der 
Wjtoschfitz. Next Wed: first night of 
new production of Lulu (0321-221 

Schauspielhaus Tonight revival of 
GOnter Kramer’s radical production 

of Fiddler on the Roof (Anatevka). 
Repertory also includes Camus’ 
Caligula, Brecht’s The Good Person 
of Sechuan and (at Halle KaJk) 
Shakespeare’s King Leer (0321-221 


Oper Tonight Die WaflcQre. Fit 
Siegfried. Sun: GOtten aa mmerung. 
These are the final instafrrwnts of the 
Frankfurt Opera's Ring production, 
conducted by Sytvain Cambreling 
and staged by Herbert Wernicke, 
with a cast headed by Jams Martin, 
Harald Stamm and Wiffiam Cochran 

Alto Oper Tonight Yevgeny 
SvettBiov conducts Russian State 
Symphony Orchestra in works by 
TchaBcovsky aid Mahler. Tomorrow: 
extracts from operas and operettas 
sung by Melanie HoiBday, Angela 
Maria Btetsl and Robert Gambffl. 

Sure Randy Newman. More Justus 
Frantz directs Middle German Radio 
Symphony Orchestra in Beethoven 
aid Tchaikovsky (069-134 0400) 
Jahrhunderthafie Hoechst 
Tomorrow: M2va. Fit. Barry Maiikw. 
Mon: Irish folk festival (069-360 



Operan The new opera house has 
opened with Btomdahl's 1959 opera 
Ankara (tonight. Sat) and Robert 
North's production of Prokofiev's 
baBet Romeo and Jufiet (Frl). The 
next premieres are Lb nozze di 
Figaro on Sun aid Robert North’s 
ballet Living in America 
(music by Copland), opening 

next Tues (031-131300) 


Staatsoper Tonight, Fri, Sat, next 
Tues, Wed and Sat John 
Neumeier's ballet [Me 
Kameliendame, set to music by 
Chopin. Tomorrow: Roberto Abbado 
conducts Andreas HornokTs new 
production of Rigotetto, with cast 
headed by Franz Gruncheber, Mario 
Giordani and HeUen Kwon. Sun, next 
Thurs: Die WaflcQre with Simon 
Estes, Robert Schunk, Kurt MoU, 
Linda Plech, Sabine Hass and 
Marjana Lipovsek (040-351721) 
MusBdiale Tomorrow: Irish folk 
festival. Fit Giuseppe Sinopofl 
conducts Dresden Staatakapefle. 

Sab Randy N8wman (040-354414) 


Finnish National Opera A new 1 
production of the Nureyev staging of 
Nutcracker opens on Fri. Repertory 
also includes La boheme, Oteflo and 
Lorenzo Ferraro’s 1981 opera La 
figHa del mago ((>4030 2211) 


Op6ra Sun: Kent Nagano conducts 
Louis Erie’s new production of 
Bert arts La Damnation de Faust, 
with Susan Graham, Thomas Moser 
and Jos6 van Dam (repeated Nov 2, 
5 and 6)- Next More Itzhak Pertman 
violin recital (tel 7200 4545 fax 7200 

St aa tsope r Tonight, Sun: Dvorak's 
DJmrtrij, with Kenneth Garrison and 
Lima Aghova. Tomorrow: Nabucco 

with Renato Bruson and JuSa 
Varady. Frt Robert Tear song recitaL 
Sab American baBet programme. 
Next Mon: Colin Davis conducts first 
night of Nicholas Hytner's new 
production of Don GSovanni, with 
cast headed by William Shfmefl, 
Peter Seiffert, Mstti Salmlnen, Luclo 
Gallo, Sheri Greenwald and Afison 
Hagley. Repeated Nov 3, 5, 9, 11. 

13 (089-221316) 

Gasteig Tonight Jesus Lopez 
Cobos conducts Lausanne Chamber 
Orchestra in a Beethoven 
programme, with piano soloist 
Anatol Ugorski. Tomorrow, Frt KLrt 
Masur conducts Leipzig 
Gewandhaus Orchestra in two 
programmes, faiduting works by 
Mahler, Mendelssohn, Strauss and 
Musorgsky/RaveL Sab Muhal Tang 
conducts Royal Flanders 
Philharmonic in Mozart, Bruch and 
Berfloz, with violin soloist Uto UghL 
Sure Gershwin and Bernstein 
programme, with vocal soloists 
(089-4809 8614) 

Herfculessaa! der Reskfenz Ftk 
Georg SchmOhe conducts Bavarian 
Radio Symphony Orchestra in a 
programme of contemporary music. 
Sum Maurizio PoHini plays 
Beethoven piano sonatas 


Salnt-Etienne is staging Its third 
Massenet Festival from Nov 4 to 13. 
This biennial event aimed at 
honouring the city’s most famous 
son, focuses on some of toe 
composer's lesser-known works. 
This year’s highlight is a staging of 
Panurge, a Rabelais-inspired 
operatic comedy first performed in 

1913, a year after Massenet died. 
There will also be concert 
performances of Le Cid, a song 
recital by French baritone Dicfier 
Henry and a concert featuring young 
French vocal soloists. The artistic 
rfrector Is Patrick FoumBier (7741 


Konserthus Tomorrow, Fri: GGnther 
Herbig conducts Oslo Philharmonic 
Orchestra In Mozart's Piano 
Concerto No 14 (Ronald Brautigam) 
and Bruckner’s Third Symphony 
(2283 3200) 


Royal Opera Tonight Aida. 
Tomorrow: Tosca. Frl and Sab 
opening performances of Yevgeny 
Poliakov’s new staging of Minkus’ 
ballet Don Quixote. Mon: La boheme 
(tickets 08-248240 Information 

Konserthuset Tomorrow, Sat 
afternoon: Nildas WUIen conducts 
Royal Stockholm Philharmonic 
Orchestra in works by Ekhind, 
Saint-Saons and Beethoven, with 
cello soloist Frans Helmereon 
(tickets 08-102110 information 


Staatstfwater Tonight, Sun: 
Shostakovich's Lady Macbeth of 
Mtsensk, with Kathryn Harries as 
Katerina. Tomorrow: Monteverdi's 
Ulisse. Fri, Sat, next Wed: John 
Cranko's ballet Onegin. Tues: Cosi 
fan tutte (0711-221795) 


Monday: Berlin, New York and 

Tuesday: Austria, Belgium, 
Netherlands, Switzerland, Chi- 
cago. Wa sh ington. 
Wednesday: France, Ger- 
many, Scandinavia. 

Thursday: Italy. Spain, Athena. 
London, Prague. 

Friday: Exhfbkiona Guide. 

Enropean Cable and 
Satellite Business TV 
(Central European Time) 
NBG/Super Channel: FT Busi- 
ness Today 1330; FT Business 
Tonight 1730, 2230 


NBC /Super Channel: 
Reports 1230. 



Bronow*: FT Reports 0745, 
1315, 1545, 1815, 2345 


NBC/Super Channel: FT 
Reports 1230 


NBC/Super Channel: FT 
Reports 1230 

Sky News: FT Reports 0230, 


NBC/Super Channel: FT 
Reports 2230 

Sky News; FT Reports 0430, 


Ian Davidson 

The frenzied 
between rival 
right-wing poli- 
ticians in 
France, ahead 
of next year’s 
election, has 
now reached a pitch of ferocity 
that would be hilarious if it 
were not so murderous. 

Mr Jacques Chirac, leader of 
the RPR Gaullist party, is des- 
perately trying to shove him- 
self ahead of Mr Edouard Bal- 
ladur, the Gaullist prime 
minister; Mr Balladur is 
equally desperately trying to 
shoulder aside Mr Chirac; and 
former President Valery Gis- 
card d’Estaing. leader of the 
centre-right UDF grouping, is 
trying to out-manoeuvre both 
of them. 

None of these rivals is yet an' 
official candidate. But the 
struggle has gone so far 
between the two Gaullists, that 
their henchmen are already 
rounding up rival supporters 
among the Gaullists in the 
National Assembly. In one 
camp are those who support 
Mr Chirac because as leader of 
the party, he has a legitimate 
claim on the candidacy; in the 
other are those who support 
Mr Balladur because they 
t hink he has a better chance of 

Last week Mr Balladur 
invited Mr Chirac and Mr Gis- 
card d’Estaing to meet him at 
the prime minis ter’s office. His 
declared object was to negoti- 
ate an end to mutual back-bit- 
ing; but his purpose was also 
to assert his political ascen- 
dancy as leader of the govern- 

Of course, his invitation was 
turned down. Mr Glscard d*Es- 
taing issued a chilling commu- 
nique he would think about it 
Mr Chirac tried to turn the 
tables, by issuing a counter-in- 
vitation of his own. calling on 
Mr Balladur to pay him a visit 
in his capacity as party leader. 
Mr Balladur studiously ignored 
this invitation. 

The confrontation recalls a 
medieval face-off between king 
and pope, with Mr Balladur 
representing the temporal 
power, and Mr Chirac the spiri- 
tual It is the peculiar conse- 
quence of a political and a 
party system which does cot 
have a recognised method of 
choosing between rival presi- 
dential candidates. 

President Francois Mitter- 
rand said last week that he is 
more “interested” than 
“amused” by the back-stabbing 




must be 
amused by the 

on the right. One must assume 
that advancing age has robbed 
him of what used to be a mor- 
dant sense of humour. It is 
only 18 months since the forces 
of the right inflicted a crushing 
defeat on his Socialist party, 
and swept to a majority in par- 
liament It is hard to believe 
that Mr Mitterrand has not 
been enjoying some cackles at 
the spectacle of the conserva- 
tives tearing themselves apart 
in the struggle for the presi- 
dential succession. 

This struggle is increasing 

The struggle is 
putting pressure 
on Delors to enter 
the contest as the 
left’s candidate 

the pressure on Mr Jacques 
Delors. president of the Euro- 
pean Commission, to enter the 
contest as the candidate of the 
left. Until recently, opinion 
polls showed him winning 
against Mr Chirac but losing 
against Mr Balladur. But now 
Mr Bahadur's rating has tum- 
bled. probably as a result of 
the corruption scandals affect- 
ing members or former mem- 
bers of his government So it 
now looks as if Mr Delors could 
have a good chance of defeat- 
ing either Mr Chirac or Mr Bal- 
ladur, or both. 

Officially. Mr Delors is non- 
committal. He has said repeat- 
edly that he is far too involved 
with his job in Brussels to 
start getting agitated about 
r unnin g for another job in 
France, when success is uncer- 
tain and there is in any case 
stiB plenty of time to make a 
decision. But many people in 
France, especially on the left, 
are starting to believe that he 
will be unable to resist the 

pressure to stand. 

Mr Delors is no doubt flat- 
tered to be solicited, especially 
by those socialists who always 
despised him for being too 
right wing; after 10 years in 
Brussels he has become a 
grand international figure; and 
to come home to the presi- 
dency would be the ultimate 
accolade of a public career. 
And yet 1 just wonder if he will 
really go for the prize. 

Last weekend, in Leiden in 
the Netherlands, he was pres- 
iding over a seminar about the 
future of Europe, attended by 
some 120 European intellectu- 
als - professors, doctors, law- 
yers. sociologists, philosophers, 
and the like. They were talking 
about such large subjects as 
identity, democracy, and work. 

In practical terms, it was 
hard to say what it all added 
up to. On the other hand, the 
event was a revealing symbol 
of Mr Delors’s attitude to poli- 
tics and Europe. He believes 
politicians should hear what 
the intellectuals have to say, 
and just as important, should 
mobilise the Intellectuals In 
the European cause. On 
Europe. Mr Delors is a convic- 
tion politician; he believes that 
the 1996 Inter-Governmental 
Conference most face the fun- 
damental political questions of 
Europe’s ultimate destination. 

His convictions must be 
urging him to stand for presi- 
dent; that way he could press 
forward the European enter- 
prise from Paris, as he has 
done from Brussels over the 
past 10 years. 

The problem is that Mr 
Delors apparently believes that 
France today is 55 per cent 
conservative. If he were to be 
elected president, precedent 
suggests he would dissolve the 
National Assembly, in the hope 
that his own election would 
help swing the voters behind 
the Socialist party. But if he is 
right that France is 55 per cent 
conservative, he would still be 
free d with a hostile conserva- 
tive majority. And that would 
be a hard prospect for a man 
embarking on the presidency 
at the age of 69. 

If Mr Delors did not stand, he 
would remove the chief incen- 
tive for the conservatives to 
unite behind a single candi- 
date; by staying aloof, he 
would maximise the odds that 
the Gaullists would split them- 
selves asunder on the rock of 
personal ambition. 

But perhaps next spring the 
polls will persuade him that 
France is only 49 per cent con- 

C ritics of the European 
Commission's two- 
year attempt to forge 
a rescue plan for the 
European Union’s steel indus- 
try had their chance to say “I 
told you so" yesterday. 

Since 1992, the Commission 
has tried to persuade private 
and public sector steelmakers 
to restructure and close down 
excess capacity. 

But yesterday, the plan’s two 
chief architects. Mr Karel Van 
Miert, competition commis- 
sioner, and Mr Martin Bange- 
mami, industry commissioner, 
finally recognised that the plan 
was dead and proposed aban- 
doning it 

The Commission has suc- 
ceeded in preventing a 
free-for-all on state aid to ail- 
ing steelmakers and in achiev- 
ing some capacity reduction. 
But it has Mien well short of 
the TniniTnnm 19m tonne target 
that most observers believe is 
necessary to avoid overcapa- 
city when the industry next 
moves into a downturn, a prob- 
lem that has plagued the 
industry over the past 20 years. 

The EU's big steelmakers 
first approached the Commis- 
sion two years ago for help in 
tackling the problems of reces- 
sion, including competition 
from cheap east European 
imports and their own manu- 
facturing overcapacity. 

Losses in the fndukry were 
piling up with some of the 
best-known steelmakers - such 
as Krupp and Thyssen of Ger- 
many and Ilva of Italy - in 
deep financial trouble. 

A previous attempt by Brus- 
sels to organise the steel mar- 
ket in the early 1980s had 
involved direct intervention in 
the steel market The socalled 
Davigoon plan, named after Mr 
Etienne Davignon. then indus- 
try commissioner, allowed the 
Commission to dictate individ- 
ual companies’ production quo- 
tas, impose protectionist trade 
measures, and endorse subsi- 
dies and price cartels. 

This time, Mr Van Miert and 
Mr Bangemann adopted a dif- 
ferent approach. The Commis- 
sion offered market supervi- 
sion through quarterly 
guidance on production and 
delivery volumes to encourage 
reduction in capacity. It 
encouraged privatisation of 
publicly-owned steelmakers to 
reduce capacity. The plan also 
involved approval of industry 
levies to finance closures; lim- 
ited protection from cheap 
imports ; and Ecu240m of social 
aid to redundant steel workers. 

In the winter of 1992. Mr Fer- 
nand Braun, the Commission's 
special steel envoy, elicited 
promises of “potential" and 
“probable" cuts in capacity of 


rainforests are 
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the rare of thousands 
trees a minute, how can planting 
just a handful of seedlings nuke a difference? 

A WWF - World Wide Fund For Nature tree 
nursery addresses some of the problems facing people 
chat can force them to chop down trees. 

Where hunger or poverty is the underlying cause 
of deforestation, wc can provide fruit trees. 

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papaya and mangoes from WWF trees. And rather than 
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two hundred years to mature. The iMarUwmw lotea 
trees planted by WWF Jnd local villages can be 
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These tree nurseries are jusr part of die work we 
do with the people of the tropical forests. 

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on an agro forestry course at UPAZ University in 
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growing vegetable and grain crops. 

help is given, 
soil is exhausted 
very quickly by “slash 
and burn" fanning methods. 
New tracts of tropical forest would then have 
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WWF is calling for the rate of deforestation in the 
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Write to the Membership Officer at the address 
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or. appropriately enough, a legacy. 

WWF Wodd Wide Fund For Nature 

'formerly World 1 VrULIe Funil 

International Secretariat. 1 1% Gland, Switzerland. 



Steel back in 
the melting pot 

Lionel Barber and Andrew Baxter on the 
collapse of the EU rescue plan for the industry 

EU steel industry: back to the drawing board 

European Commission’s failed rescue plan 


iV.iilion terror 

Total capacity * > 0 

Excess cap acity 30 

Target cuts 19^26 

Cuts pledged or being implemented 16 

Total EU crude production Mill, on tenses 

1994 (first nine months) 103.3 

1993 (first nine months) 99.3 

Top 10 companies 

Crude procucron 

' Us/nor SaciJor (Frerce) 

£ British Steel i'JKi 

5 Thyssen 'Germany) 

4 ILVA ,'.;a.v) 

5 Krupp Hoesch -Germanyi 
<3 Hoogo vcns ■Tietn.yriands) 

7 Riva (Itey) 

S Preussag (Germany) 

9 Cockerill Sambre (Belgium) 
TO HKM !G=.Tra.-y) 

about 17m in crude steel and 
some 11m in rolled products 
during a series of negotiations 
with steel companies. 

Yet ft was clear from the out- 
set that private steel compa- 
nies were reluctant to make 
real capacity cuts. State-owned 
steelmakers were also reluc- 
tant to reduce capacity, and 
continued to lobby for state aid 
with the backing of national 
governments or powerful 
regional lobbies. 

“Too many steelmakers 
thought their competitors were 
more likely to go under, or that 
it made more sense to wait for 
an upturn in prices," says one 

The first significant blow to 
the rescue plan occurred last 
year when a powerful local 
campaign prevented the clo- 
sure of the lossmaking Hdc k- 
ner works near Bremen in Ger- 
many. Closing Kfockner would 
have given an early push 
toward the 19m tonne target; 
instead its survival encouraged 
others to resist 

A second blow came Last 
June when Mr Van Miert unex- 

'vV'-'ori tenner. 

pectedly lost a battle in the 
Commission over steel closures 
in the Bresciani region of 
northern Italy. He wanted 
approval for Ecu415m of aid to 
help e liminat e an estimated 5m 
tonnes in capacity. 

When this was denied, Mr 
Van Miert promptly declared 
the steel plan “dead". Weeks 
later, the full Commission 
approved a new version of the 
plan which showed that the 
state aid to the Bresciani did 
not, in fact, violate EU rules. 

The Bresciani deal brought 
the cuts being pledged or car- 
ried out to about 15.5m of 
capacity and seemed to revive 
the rescue plan. But with steel 
prices steadily improving, fur- 
ther capacity cuts could not be 
found as steel companies found 
demand rising. 

Messrs Van Miert and Bange- 
mann tried another round of 
expensive dinners and loud 
table-banging to persuade the 
steelmakers to find more cuts, 
with no success. 

“We just knew we were 
never going to get the extra 
capacity cuts,” said one offi- 

' tw. -re ; Set -si: '■ 

cial “so we could no longer in 
good faith continue with the 

Critics of the rescue plan 
have long feared that steelma- 
kers would use a short-term 
increase in demand to avoid or 
postpone painful decisions on 
capacity cuts. Now, with the 
recession over, their fears have 
been vindicated. 

Late last month. German 
steelmakers said they were 
prepared to forego the Brussels 
aid package and wait for the 
next recession before trying 
once again to agree on cuts. 

The collapse comes as no 
surprise to industry analysts. 
Mr Rod Beddows of Beddows & 
Co, a steel consultancy, says 
overcapacity is not spread 
evenly across the £U steel 
industry. The German indus- 
try. for example, is already 
working at full capacity produ- 
cing flat products, although 
the economic recovery has yet 
to reach full swing. 

More seriously, he questions 
the approach of trying to 
reduce overcapacity as a solu- 
tion to the industry’s ills. Over- 

capacity. Mr Beddows believes, 
is only a symptom of the real 
problem, state intervention via 
subsidies that prop up uneco- 
nomic steelmakers. 

“The Commission's plan was 
a non-solution to a non-prob- 
lem." he says. “Until the 
notion of state intervention in 
all its forms is removed, you 
won't get a healthy industry." 

With the ending of the Com- 
mission's rescue plan, two 
issues remain unresolved. 
First, there is concern that fur- 
ther painful attempts to cut 
capacity will have to be made 
when the industry enters its 
next downturn, as the task 
remains unfinished. 

Second, non-subsidised pro- 
ducers continue to worry about 
subsidies to loss-making com- 
petitors that threaten their 
own profitability. "Subsidies 
are still supporting capacity, 
and that nettle has to be 
grasped," says British Steel, 
one of the most profitable non- 
aided producers. 

E ven with the market 
picking up, some steel- 
makers continue to 
demand subsidies. 
This week, Germany’s econom- 
ics minis try and the Treuhand 
privatisation agency asked the 
Commission to back a rescue 
package for Eko Stahl, the east 
German producer, worth 

Subsidies could re-emerge as 
a serious problem when the 
steel market begins to fall 
a g ain , with member countries 
coming under further pressure 
to support loss-making produc- 

However, the industry has 
learnt some vital lessons about 
how to survive in a recession 
that ought make the problems 
less serious in the future. 
These include the need to be 
flexible as demand fluctuates. 

“The decisive thing that we 
have learnt is to reduce the 
level of raw steel production - 
to sbut blast furnaces which in 
the past kept producing no 
matter what happened - and 
to base all our calculations on 
those reduced levels." says one 
German producer. 

Hie steel companies are also 
learning to seek market solu- 
tions rather than wait for Brus- 
sels to sort out the problems. 
Innovative transnational alli- 
ances. reciprocal equity stakes 
and investments are beginning 
to create a less nationally- 
based industry. That raises the 
prospect, albeit not immedi- 
ately, of an industry that can 
prosper without subsidies. 

Additional reporting by Mich- 
ael Lmdemarm in Bonn 


Number One Southwark Bridge, London SE1 9HL 

Fax 072 873 5938. Letters transmitted should be clearly typed and not hand written. Please set fax for finest resolution 

Iraq should 
export oil to 
aid civilians 

From Mr Faisal Al-Sabah. 

Sir, Blackmail and mass hos- 
tage-taking are instruments of 
policy used by Saddam Hus- 
sein, not only internally but 
also externally. 

During the occupation of 
Kuwait, he held foreign civil- 
ians hostage: if foreign aircraft 
bomb my installations, they 
will bomb their own citizens 
also. He is now holding the 
Iraqi people hostage: if the 
sanctions hurt my regime, they 
will hurt the Iraqi people also. 
In both cases be has used large 
numbers of human beings as 
an object of blackmail. 

Back in 1991. UN Resolutions 
706 and 712 provided for oil 
sales by Iraq - equivalent to 
$l-6bn - to finance supplies for 
essential civilian needs. This 
sum was to be reviewed 
according to those needs. 

However, Saddam Hussein 
refuses to export oil so that he 
can use the suffering of the 
Iraqi people as a means of 
blackmailing the world into 
removing the sanctions com- 
pletely, thus freeing his regime 
to regain its former power. 

Well-intentioned people who 
call for the end of the sanc- 
tions should not be deceived by 
Saddam Hussein, but put pres- 
sure on him to export oil for 
essential civilian needs. 

Faisal Al-Sabah. 

Kuwait Information Centre, 

30 Old Burlington Street, 
London WlX 1LB 

Attraction of locked currencies 

From Mr Christopher Jackson 

Sir, Last year the European 
Parliament’s Economic Com- 
mittee, of which 1 was a mem- 
ber, interviewed Mr Alexandre 
Lamfelussy for l 1 /, hours prior 
to his appointment as presi- 
dent of the European Monetary 
Institute. Like you (“Single 
currency should be delayed, 
says EU bank chief", October 
2/1), I formed a very positive 
view of his expertise, pragma- 
tism an d commitment. 

Given adequate convergence, 
the idea of irrevocable locking 
of member currencies at an 

earlier stage than domestic use 
of the Ecu seems increasingly 
attractive. The banks warn us 
of huge costs, difficulties and 
lead times in introducing Ecu 
notes and coinage. On the 
other band irrevocable locking 
of currencies gives business 
most of the advantages with 
few of the costs. 

The approach to stage three 
of Emu would thus be “a Euro- 
pean currency with local man- 
ifestations’’ in the form of 
existing domestic notes and 
coinage in each member state 
involved. It is quite right that 
this has great advantages in 

terms of public opinion as well. 

However. I also advocate 
early consideration of the issue 
of perhaps two Ecu notes (say 
Ecuso and Ecu20, worth today 
the awkward sums of £39 and 
£15.60 respectively) which 
would be legal tender as a par- 
allel currency in all Emu 
states, giving travellers some 
relief from the cost and fuss of 
changing currencies, and 
showing an everyday benefit 
from a European currency. 
Christopher Jackson, 

8 Wellmeade Drive, 


Kent TN13 1QA 

Samsung and ‘fortress Europe’ factor 

From Mr Ian Milne. 

Sir, Your leader. “Inward & 
upward" (October 18). makes 
the point that one of the rea- 
sons Samsung is investing in 
Cleveland is the UK’s member- 
ship of the European Union. 
That is true as far as it goes. 
But, as you reported on the 
front page the same day, the 

real EU-related factor in Sam- 
sung’s decision, according to 
Mr Chan Bea, UK managing 
director, was to counter “possi- 
ble anti-dumping measures by 
the EU". The decision there- 
fore seems to be another tri- 
umph for proponents of “for- 
tress Europe". 

The question your leader did 

not address is how much dam- 
age to Europe anil indeed, the 
world economy - and therefore 
to UK interests - the fortress 
Europe doctrine is causing. 

Tan Miln e, 


The European Foundation, 

61 Pall Mall, 

London SWlYSHZ 

A lone knight among business school deans 

Prom Sir James BalL 
Sir. I note the reference to 
my former students. Sir John 
Egan and Sir Iain Vallance, in 
your Survey of Business 
Schools - An A-Z Guide (Octo- 
ber 17), together with the 
observation that “No business 
school deans are thought to 
have been awarded knight- 

May l for the record, point 
out that I was knighted as 
principal of the London Busi- 
ness School in 1984 for services 
to management education. 

Your report comments on 
the feet that Sir Graham Day 
and Sir John Harvey-Jones did 
not have MBAs. Neither have 
I. But Graham Day did hold 
the position of professor of 

business administration at Dal- 
housie University. Nova Scotia, 

May I put him in my team 
rather than Sir John's. 

Jim Ball, 

professor of economics, 

London Business School, 

Sussex Place, 

Regent's Park, 

London NW1 4SA 

Food irradiation little more than an expensive quick fix 

From Ms Maria Elena Hurtado. 

Sir. Proposing food irradia- 
tion as a solution to poisoning 
and death from contaminated 
foods Is a dangerous and 
expensive distraction (“Back- 
ing for food process", October 
19). In developing countries, 
where the problem is most 
severe, it is not contaminated 
milk in need of irradiation that 
causes child diarrhoea; it is 
diluting powdered milk with 
polluted water or using 
unclean recipients. In devel- 
oped countries, food handling 
and poor hygienic conditions 
are also leading sources of 
food-home diseases. 

Furthermore, this expensive 
technology is suited only to a 
very small range of foods. One 

of the prime uses for which it 
is being promoted is for treat- 
ing grains that have been 
infested during storage. Irra- 
diating them will leave grain 
full of dead insects or mice. 
Surely, it is better and cheaper 
to improve storage facilities. 
Also, it is disingenuous to 
argue that the loss of nutrients 
during irradiation - for exam- 
ple, vi tamin E levels can be 
reduced by 25 per cent - is 
“really minimal" compared 
with the less through cooking. 
The fact of the matter is that 
irradiation only compounds 
the problem of nutrient loss. ' 
And while it is true that 
studies have shown that irradi- 
ated food at the dosage levels 
recommended Is safe to eat. 

few studies have been done on 
humans for any length of time. 
Little is known, for example, 
about what happens to pesti- 
cide and other chemical resi- 
dues during irradiation. The 
fear is that, as with many 
other subtle chemical changes, 
the impact will not show up for 
many years. 

It is one thing to monitor 
carefully administered .doses In 
a laboratory; quite another to 
do it for large quantities in an 
industrial plant. Consumers 
have no independent means of 
assessing the validity of the 
manufacturers' claims: as yet 
there is no cheap and reliable 
test for inspecting the safeness 
of irradiated food. 

What food irradiation does 

offer is an expensive quick fix. 
So instead of ridding chickens 
of salmonella, as the Swedes 
have done, you irradiate them. 
The priority of governments 
and international aid agencies 
must be to deal with food con- 
tamination by improving har- 
vesting, storage and manufac- 
turing. In the third world, 
spending scarce resources in 
providing clean water would 
do much more for people's 
health than investing in expen- 
sive food irradiation plants. 
Maria Elena Hurtado, 
global policy and campaigns 

International Organisation of 
Consumer Onions, 

24 Highbury Crescent, 

London N5 1RX 



Number One Southwark Bridge, London SE1 9HL 
Tel: 071-873 3000 Telex: 922186 Fax: 071-407 5700 

Wednesday October 26 1994 

Rooting out 

Not before tone, Mr John Major 
has perceived the need for a com- 
prehensive Inquiry into standards 
in British public life. The prime 
minister's announcement in the 
House of Commons yesterday is 
welcome, but it might better have 
been made sooner. Over the past 
few days two of his junior minis- 
ters have been obliged to resign, 
following allegations that they 
received payments in return for 
political favours. If that was the 
whole story, Mr Major might be 
said to have acted both decisively 
and swiftly. 

In terms of public disquiet, how- 
ever, these fails from grace were 
merely the latest in a long series 
of Incidents, some of thorn similar, 
some of a different nature. Conser- 
vative politicians in particular 
have been put under the spotlight, 
and too often found wanting, 
the “back to basics’* c amp ai g n of a 
year ago, and indeed before that 
There has been a growing percep- 
tion, fed by media inquiries and 
opposition statements, that after 
15 years in office some prominent 
members of the governing party 
are behaving with less care or 
good sense than they should. 

Corrupt behaviour 

This must be seen in perspec- 
tive. The British inclination is to 
believe that corrupt behaviour 
happens in other countries, but 
not at home. A more accurate 
proposition is that malfeasance 
uncovered elsewhere is often on a 
far larger large scale than in 
Britain, but that the tradeoff of 
cash for favours has become uni- 

The corruption revealed in Italy 
was systemic. It led to the over- 
throw of the long-established par- 
ties, and the election of Mr Berlus- 
coni. Large sums of money, and 
large banks, are implicated in 
tales of corruption in Spain. The 
allegations of malpractice that 
recently forced two French minis- 
ters to resign involve greater 
sums, and more obvious depar- 
tures from probity, than anything 
said in tiw recent British cases 
Mr Edouard BaOadur has had to 
contend .with allegations that his 

rather petty and some of it involv 
ing the exercise of po litic al patron- 
age rather than the receipt of 
cash. Questionable individuals 
donate money to Conservative 
funds. Appointments to public 
bodies are not listed; the suspicion 
grows that they are politically 
motivated. The Scott inquiry has 
yet to report on the exercise of 
ministerial and offiriai discretion 
in the matter of arms sales to Iraq. 

Independent scrutiny 

Mr Major’s annnfiTnn»mept yes- 
terday addresses some, but not all, 
of the many such issues that have 
arisen over the past few years. 
The standing committee he is to 
set up win “examine current con- 
cerns about standards of conduct 
of all holders of public office, 
including arrangements relating 
to financial and commercial activi- 
ties. and make recommendati ons 
as to any changes in present 
arrangements which might be 
required to ensure the highest 
standards in public life. 

To judge from his remarks in 
the house, Mr Major does not 
envisage that the new committee, 
to be chaired by Lord Nolan, win 
examine the sources of payments 
to political parties. It should. Mr 
Major said nothing about publish- 
ing a list of members of quangos, 
or subjecting their appointments 
to independent scrutiny. He 
should do so now. 

Lord Nolan is not to examine 

ministers took serious money, Mr 
Major that junior members of his 
gove rnmen t dabbled in peanuts. 

The prime minister has been 
forced to take action because of an 
accumulation of relatively small 
incidents of corruption, most of it 

the charges against individual 
minis ters; that inquisition will 
take place, in camera, in a parlia- 
mentary committee. It siimiM be 
held in public, even though some 
of the evidence may came from Mr 
Mohamed Fayed, an Egyptian- 
born financier, whose motives 
were put in question yesterday by 
both the prime minister and the 
leader of the opposition. 

Otherwise, as the Labour leader, 
Mr Tony Blair said, “there wiD be 
justifiable public concern that the 
general inquiry is being used to 
sweep the particular allegations 
from public view, when it is these 
allegations that have given rise to 
flu* public concern’'. 

Mr Major's ammniinftfflpnt may 

take some erf the heat off the gov- 
ernment. The inclusion of local 
authorities in its remit makes it 
likely that some Labour councils 
will be shown to be corrupt But 
he needs to do more if he is to 
restore public confidence. 

Paying up 
for pensions 

Hercules cleaned the Augean 
stables by diverting a river 
through them.. Sadly, there is no 
comparable short cut for Britain’s 
Securities and Investments Board 
(SIB) in dealing with the mis-sell- 
ing of personal pensions. More- 
over the potential scale of this 
ext raordinar y regulatory disaster 
continues to increase. 

The SIB’s initial assumption 
was that the problem was primar- 
ily concerned with pom 1 pensions 
advice b ein g given to people on 
Leaving their jobs or on being 
made redundant. Many were 
transferring into personal pen- 
dons when they would have been 
letter off taking deferred benefits 
!rom more generous occupational 
schemes. It has since become 
ucreasingly apparent that the big- 
jest problem may be to do with 
wo different groups: those who 
sere advised to apt out of ooaxpa- 
tenai schemes while rem ai n i n g in 
he same employment, or who 
nok out personal pensions instea d 
rf joining more generous occupa- 
tional schemes for which they 
rare eligible. 

Given that personal pensions 
ire a much more expensive form 
jf provision than defined b ene f i t 
>ccupational and offer an 

mcertain future return, the cir- 
mm stances in which they are 
ikely to be the best choice far 
hose other than the self-employed 
ire limited. Yet consulting actu- 
ary Bacon and Woodrow esti mate s 
hat there were more than 850,000 
employed people who made such a 
hoice on the advice erf personal 
tensions salesmen. It is hard to 
relieve that a majority of them 
rill not have suffered actual or 
xitential loss as a result- 

inevitable pressure 

To its credit, the SIB shows no 
dgn of backsliding in its detailed 
iroposals to provide redress, 
lespite inevitable pressure from 
jtements of the financial services 
industry. Clearly it will be helped 
if occupational pension schemes 
ire prepared to take back those 
arho have been ill-advised. The 
National Association of Pension 
funds is sensibly urging this 
•curse on its members and some 
rnblic sector schemes have 
ilready accepted the argument 
fet the SIB has no jurisdiction 
>ver pension fund trustees. And 
rven where the? are prepared to 

act. companies responsible for 
misaellmg will have to meet the 
“fair" cost of reinstatement. 
Where no reinstatement is posa- 
ble, redress will be offered direct 
to the investor. 

Compensation will only be 
required where there are actual or 
potential losses and poor advice 
can be seen to have played a 
causal rede, it will not be given in 
the case of losses where the inves- 
tor understood the character and 
size of the risks being run. 

Calculating redress 

The SIB’s specific methods of 
calculating redress inevitably 
involve big assumptions in valu- 
ing benefits - for example, in rela- 
tion to future salary increases, dis- 
cretionary benefits and so forth. 
But these have been reviewed by 
the government actuary and do 
not look unreasonable overall 
Since part of the object of the 
exercise is anyway to minimise 
the need for the victims to go to 
court, the SIB has had an incen- 
tive to ensure that the redress Is 

There are questions about tne 
adequacy of the coverage of the 
review of personal pension sales. 
There will, for example, be no 
automatic requirement for a 
review of advice to those who had 
the option to join occupational 
schemes but chose personal pen- 
sions instead- The larger worries 
concern, first, the thoroughness 
with which companies will go 
about the monumental task of 
reviewing their own mis -selling; 
and, second, the quality erf moni- 
toring and enforcement by self- 
regulatory organisations such as 
the newly formed Personal Invest- 
ment Authority. 

The cost for the banking and 
insurance sectors will be huge. 
The bOL for which outside esti- 
mates range as high as £2bn, any- 
way results from dear breaches of 
the regulatory standards i n fo rce 
at the time by the industry at 
large. For those with efficient 
syrtems the problem will be 
readily manageable within the 
SIB’s time table, which aims for a 
ftiti solution by the end of 1996. 
For the weaker insurance compa- 
nies, that deadline looks pious. 
The coincidence of this review 
with the SIB’s new disclosure 
rules looks like one more nail in 
their coffin. 

M r Yassir Arafat, 
chairman of the 
Palestine Libera- 
tion Organisation, 
will be conspicu- 
ous by his absence at today’s trium- 
phant signing of the Israel-Jordan 
peace treaty in the presence of US 
President Bill Clinton. 

Jordan, which is at loggerheads 
with the PLO over rival daime to 
the Islamic sites in Arab East Jeru- 
salem. did not Include toe Palestin- 
ian leader among the 5,000 guests. 
Mr Yitzhak Rabin, Israeli prune 
minister, went further, telling $jj- 
Arafat, officially and publicly, that 
he was “not welcome”. 

The landmark accord signed by 
Israel and toe PLO last September 
marked a turning point in Middle 
East peace. Since then, Israeli peace 
with Syria and Lebanon has moved 
within grasp; Morocco and Tunisia 
have established formal ties with 
the Jewish state; the Arab economic 
boycott of Israel has been eroded; 
and, on Sunday, poUtimj and busi- 
ness leaders from Israel, the Arab 
world, the US, Europe and Japan 
will meet in Casablanca to taka the 
first step towards creating a m»mtp 
E ast common market 
But the Israeli-Palestinian peace 
agreement that made all thi« possi- 
ble is in serious trouble. 

Against the backdrop of economic 
deterioration in the Gaza Strip and 
delays in the peace negotiations. 
Palestinian discontent is rising, and 
there has beat a series of horrific 
at tacks on Tararfis by Palestinian 
Islamic guerrillas. 

Indeed. Mr Arafat’s advisers are 
now openly questioning the feasibil- 
ity of the peace process. “The situa- 
tion is very fragile and sensitive at 
the moment in terms of stability. 
Anything could happen," said Mr 
Nabfi Abu Irdainah, a senior official 
in Mr Arafat's office. “We still hope 
it will work, but it could fafl." 

Israel and the PLO knew that 
their agreement was a risky 
venture. In return for Israeli recog- 
nition of fbp PLO and a commit- 
ment to a five-year process of nego- 
tiations, Mr Arafat settled for 
United autonomy in a tiny, impov- 
erished part of tha land claimed by 
Palestinians. He hoped he could 
eventually win the state the Pales- 
tinians Want, c m n p ri aing the Gare 
Strip and the West Rank including - 

Arab East Jerusalem. 

Palestinians were sceptical about 
Ur Arafat's deal, which seemed to 
surrender the three burning causes 
that have sustained the Palestinian 
struggle since 1948: toe return of up 
to 4m Palestinian refugees; the 
recovery of all land occupied by 
Israel; and a Palestinian stale with 
Jerusalem as its capital. But a slim 
majority gave the veteran PLO 
leader the benefit of the doubt 
The signatories to the deal hoped 
that this fragile Palestinian support 
would be consolidated as the peace 

Peace prospects 
frayed at the edges 

Palestinian grievances are increasing tensions again 
in the Middle East, writes Julian Ozanne 

process gained momentum, with Mr 
Arafat gradually expanding his rule 
across the West Bank and holding 
elections to pave the way for discus- 
sions on statehood. Jerusalem and 
refugees. Support would also grow, 
they believed, as Palestinians expe- 
rienced a speedy change in their 
economic situation. 

However, 13 months after the 
signing of the agreement, ordinary 
Palestinians have seen little evi- 
dence of the fruits of peace. The 
peace process is six to nine months 
behind schedule. Israel has reneged 
on promises to release thousands of 
Palestinian prisoners and appears 
reluctant to take the next big step 
in the process: redeployment of 
Israeli troops is toe occupied West 
Bask to allow Palestinian elections. 

Israel is also insisting on complex 
security arrangements to protect 
the 120.000 Jewish settlers in the 
West Rank , and p ushing the PLO to 
bar the Hamas Islamic Resistance 
Movement from participating in the 
elections. The poll should have been 
held last July, but now seems 
unlikely before mid- 1995. 

Israeli control over the pace of 
the peace negotiations and the 
nature of any concessions to rhp 
PLO is fa effing support for Mr Ara- 
fat's opponents, who maintain that 
Israel never intended to band over 
the West Bank. The delay in the 
application of the agreement only 
helps to mflamp the situation,. and 
will help extremists to explode the 
peace process,” said Mr Yassir 
Abed-rabbo, who holds the Palestin- 
ian portfolio for culture. 

And on the economic front, toe 
chaotic transition from Israeli to 
PLO rule in the Gaza Strip may 
even have caused a downturn. 

In an economy with 50 per cent 
unemployment and years of infra- 
structure neglect, only a fraction of 
the 5720m of emergency aid prem- 
ised by international [jo DOTS and the 

World Bank for 1994 has been 
released. The UN Works and Relief 
Agency has spent $52m on projects 
since September last year, but the 
only other large project under way 
is a Gaza cleanup campaign, 
funded by Japan and the European 
Union, which has created just 3,000 
jobs. A 8128m emergency housing 
project is slowly taking shape. 

As a recent UN internal memo- 

Middle East peace-makers: from top left, Yassir Arafat, PLO chairman. 
President Bill Clinton and T yraan prime m mister Yitzhak R ab in 

random observed: “Despite its sig- 
nificance, almost no significant 
investment activity has occurred in 
the Gaza Strip since [Israeli] rede- 
ployment." The private sector 
remains unwilling to inject capital, 
the UN says, “into an economy 
where the political situation 
remains unstable and no regulatory 
framework yet exists”. 

Recent evidence (rf irregular busi- 
ness itok in cement, petroleum and 
tpInmmmniiicatimiB , negotiated by 
a coterie around Mr Arafat without 
open public bidding, has also 
deterred toe private sector. 

The World Bank blames the 
PLO’s lack of accountability and Mr 
Arafat's refusal to delegate eco- 
nomic decision-making for these 
problems. There baa been political 
infighting in the PLO, as four senior 
officials have competed for control 
over economic policy, with Mr Ara- 
fat as toe mly court of appeal. 

The PLO blames tile World Bank 
and other donors for bureaucracy 
and failure to see the political 
imperatives of speedy disbursement 
of aid. “We are suffering from donor 
fatigue, donor myopia and donor 
arterial sclerosis,” said Mr Nabil 
Shaath, one of the Palestinians 
responsible for aid negotiations. 
“Unless you burn yourself com- 
pletely, like Rwanda or Somalia, it 
seems donors are not interested.” 

Some bilateral donors believe the 
truth lies in the middle. While they 
support the World Rank in its criti- 
cisms of the PLO. they say the hank 
has concentrated too much on 
long-term projects and has proved 
incapable of finding alternative 
ways to release aid and to work 
with toe PLO. 

Mr Terje Roed Larsen, UN under- 
secretary general co-ordinating aid 
to the Palestinians, said: The UN 
and World Rank agree that it is now 

acutely necessary to have both a 
short-term and long-term focus and 
to put in motion high-impact job- 
creating projects, because if there is 
no significant improvement of liv- 
ing conditions in the next six to 
eight months the support and legiti- 
macy for the process and the Pales- 
tinian authority' will evaporate." 

Matters have been made worse by 
Israel sealing the borders with the 
Gaza Ship and West Bank at least 
four times since September last 
year. The most recent closure, 
Imposed last Wednesday after the 
Hamas suicide bombing of a Tel 
Aviv bus, which killed 22 Israelis, is 
still in place. 

The closure has put 65.000 Pales- 
tinian migrant labourers, whose 
income forms the backbone of the 
dependent Palestinian economy, out 
of work. It will also hit Palestinian 
exports to Israel and Palestinian 
Treasury revenue, as well as deter 
ring investors and tourists. 

T hese costs, together with 
the continuing economic 
hardship, appear to be 
strengthening the hand 
of Hamas. Mr Mahmoud 
Zohar, the organisation's leading 
Gaza spokesman, welcomed the 
return of Mr Arafat aud the PLO to 
Gaza because their failures, he said, 
would encourage Palestinians to 
turn to Hamas. "Arafat’s return 
hastens the coming of the Islamic 
state” he said. 

Many Palestinians refuse to con- 
demn the recent Hamas attacks, in 
view of the continuing Israeli occu- 
pation and Mr Arafat's apparent 
weakness. The simmering tension 
between the two rival Palestinian 
groups has moved into open con- 
frontation, with Hamas challenging 
the PLO for the political leadership 
of the Palestinian cause. 

Mr Arafat dares not move against 
Hamas while he has so few political 
and economic gains from the peace 
process and fears the eruption of 
civil war. “We did not make peace 
with Israel to make a civil war 
among our own people," said Mr 
Shaath. “Hamas cannot be defeated 
by security alone. We need a judi- 
cious mixture of political and eco- 
nomic change.” 

But Israel, backed by the US. is 
insisting that Mr Arafat deal a 
severe blow to Hamas, and implying 
that further progress in the peace 
talks will depend on a crackdown 
on Islamic guerrillas. 

Mr Arafat’s dilemma, and the pos- 
sibility of a break-down in toe Israe- 
li-Palestinian peace process, could 
yet derail progress towards peace in 
the Middle East. Despite today's 
signing with Jordan, many Arab 
states are holding back or making 
further ties with Israel conditional 
on progress on the Palestinian 
issue. Until that happens, hopes of 
wide-ranging peace in the region 
look far-fetched. 

Treasury reform: low on culture shock 

The UK Treasury, 
Whitehall’s most 
powerful civil ser- 
vice department, 
has gone back to 
first principles to 
its B ™ tenra 
L or ’ 111016 accurately, 

lRzJz. its Tunning costs. A 

penetrating report published last 
week recommends refocusing the 
department’s work and a radical 
shake-up in its organisation. 

The report should be judged on 
whether it leads to a stronger Trea- 
sury. A strong central department 
is needed to fend off ever more pow- 
erful special pleading by vested 
interest groups, often articulated by 
other parts of WhitehalL 
There is certainly some moderni- 
sing to cheer in the report. Far the 
first tone the Treasury has set itself 
objectives. It will concentrate on 
core activities and get out of others 
such as checking on diplomats’ 
cost-of-hvtog allowances in Bogota 
or running dvll service pensions. 

The report recommends removing 
much duplication <rf work done by 
others, ft wifi reduce senior staff 
numbers by more than a quarter. 

Not bad. But a key test of this 
report is how far it enables the 
Treasury to change its culture. Does 
it address the common criticisms of 
the department that it is short-ter- 
mist in outlook and insular in mak- 
ing decisions? 

To deal with short-termism. the 
report recommends the creation of 
a strategy group. I am not sure this 
is the answer. In my experience, 
there was no shortage of willing- 
ness or capaci t y among senior staff 
to think longer term, particularly 
when ministers demanded it The 
problem was that so many were 
engaged in dealing with short-tram 
crises that they rarely had time to 
take the longer view. 

Time wifi tell whether those 
advised by the strategy group will 
find themselves swamped by 
events, leaving the group’s elegant 
reports to languish in their pending 
trays. The report distinguishes 
more clearly toe roles of senior 
grades, and this may leave scope for 
long-term thinking by the top lay- 
ers, who currently spend too much 
time second-guessing subordinates. 

Insularity is a bigger problem. I 
was astonished to discover that the 

Treasury often worked out impor- 
tant reforms (on pensions deregu- 
lation, for example) with little input 
from those with significant working 
experience of the field. 

Here the culture needs a funda- 
mental change, with more people 
brought in from outside. Far more 
cross-fertilisation is needed between 
tiie Treasury and other professions. 
Ultimately that could mean differ- 

There are hopeful 
signs of greater 
openness, with far 
more secondments 
to industry 

ential pay for the same work to 
attract suitable outsiders. Providing 
posts for them would also erode the 
presumption that cml servants can 
expect a lifetime career. 

This is a bridge too far for the 
Treasury. True, the seven new 
“directors* created by the report 
will be given enormous freedom, 
including power to recruit on 
short-term contracts. But the com- 

mitment to a lifetime service wins 
out: the report makes clear that 
shortterm contracts are “unlikely 
in our view to be a significant fea- 
ture of a restructured Treasury". It 
seems particularly odd to ding to 
the lifetime principle when the 
slimming at the top sends such a 
clear message to younger staff that 
there will be far fewer slots for 
them later on. 

Nonetheless, there are hopeful 
signs erf greater openness in Trea- 
sury work, with far more second- 
ments to industry. There is also a 
long overdue proposal that senior 
Treasury mandarins should have 
more experience of the areas of pub- 
lic expenditure they are responsible 
for (whether it is industry, schools, 
hospitals or whatever). 

Although the system of control- 
ling public expenditure looks at risk 
from the proposals to reduce Trea- 
sury interference in departments 
and agencies, it is probably safe. 
The present system is certainly due 
for an overhaul: it requires the 
Treasury to approve minutiae such 
as the amount spent on leaving-gilts 
and “novel” office parties. A little 
devolution on this dose monitoring 

might leave the Treasury with more 
time to weigh up the short-term 
cost of spending against its 
long-term economic benefits. 

The report sensibly makes clear 
that the Treasury is going to give 
□p these nit-picking powers only 
when departments demonstrate a 
greater willingness to share man- 
agement and financial information 
with them. That is an essential safe- 
guard. Departments are not like 
business profit centres, and decen- 
tralisation could all too easily lead 
to loss of spending control 

The jury is out on these reforms. 
In some ways they do not go far 
enough. They may not be imple- 
mented. But at least they may 
prompt cuts in the upper echelons 
elsewhere in the civil service. A 
good place to start would be White- 
hall’s other ivory tower the Foreign 

Andrew Tyrie 

The author teas art adviser in the 
Treasury to former UK chancellors 
Nigel Lawson and John Major 


In at the 

■ Finland's imminent entry into 
the European Union has got off to a 
flying start with the choice of Erkki 
T.iihanen as the country’s first 
European commissioner. Not only is 
he one (rf the most assiduous 
party-throwers in Brussels, where 
he currently serves as EU 
. ambassador, but he knows his way 
around toe organisation - which is 
more than can be said for many 
new commissioners. 

However, it was touch and go 
whether T-iitcanan, 44, would get the 
job. Early yesterday morning , 

Prime Minister Esko Aho was still 

balking id wnriitlg Infernm, ft 

member of toe opposition Social 
Democrats. Aho, who leads toe 
agrarian-based centre party, wanted 
Bfrm Q THlfl a Rank of Finland 
director others favoured Perth 
Saloiainen. the foreign trade 
minis ter who led Finland’s 
negotiations to enter the Union. 
Failure to agree allowed President 
Martti Ahtisaari to push the job 
Lifitanen’s way. 

T.ukanen ’s reputation is certainly 
higher in Brussels than in Finland 
where voters still remember him 
quitting as finance minister in the 
previous government just before the 
economy crashed- Will he be as 
lucky when Jacques Santer bands 
out the portfolios? 

Insiders tip the Flying Eton for 
the personnel portfolio - not 

particularly exerting but one which 
wifi leave other commissioners 
looking for favours. But why not 
the more high-powered internal 
market portfolio, which remains in 
search of a political heavyweight? 

Deep seam 

■ When is a quango not a quango? 
The new Coal Authority launched 
yesterday, apparently, does not 
qualify. It is a non-departmental . 
public body, according to Charles 
Wardle, the Junior energy minister. 
He had some difficulty explaining 
the difference. Perhaps readers 
would like to lend him a han d ... 

Dayly grind 

■ Lord Howe may be the last of the 
Thatcher government’s troika to 
publish his memoirs, but he could 
be the first to stage a political 
comeback - if you listen to Sir 
Robin Day, the veteran TV 
interviewer. Sir Robin, a t tendi n g 
the launch of Lord Howe's book, 
confidently predicted that Howe 
would soon be back in government 
as Lend Chancellor, giving it some 
“muchneeded bottom”. 

Than again. Sir Robin might be a 
bit biased. The two of them go back 
a long way. Both were called to the 
Bar on the same evening in 1952 
and both stood for Parliament in 
1959. Sir Robin and Geoffrey Howe 
failed, but it was at that election 
that Maggie Thatcher first became 

There’s a little person looking for 
low-paid employment within all of 
us, Mr Tmglmgtan’ 

an MP. T disappeared into the 
obscurity of toe TV studios. .. such 
is the way the destiny of great 
nations is decided,” joked Sir Robin. 

Loosened tongues 

N The dangers of drinking on duty, 
continued. The CNFF, the French 
employers’ body, has just published 
a list of tips to its members on 
communicating financial 
information to the market A very 
worthy tome, indeed - nestling 

Wi thin the cnmmenfcs on relatio ns 

with analysts and the press is "A 

risk often ignored: cocktails”. 

Les coc k tails, it seems, offer 
pitfalls for the unwary, and not just 
for purists guarding the language. 
Apparently there is a risk of 
divulging sensitive information 
when having a drink after a press 
conference. Sacre bleu! The French 
have uncovered another journalistic 
trick (rf the trade. 

Asset strippers 

■ Religion is not a growth 
business. The Federation of 
Synagogues is following the Church 
of England's lead in shedding 
under-used assets. Two synagogues 
in the East End (rf London are up 
fin' sale as second and third- 
generation Jewish immigrants 
desert the area for the suburbs. 
While the federation is willing to 
sell to other faiths, it also has a 
duty to accept the highest bid - so 
God might be outbid by Mammon. 

Twas ever thus. The first 
Methodist chapel used by John 
Wesley from 1743, is about to be 
turned into Covent Garden offices; 
previous tenants include the 
London City Ballet and toe Tiller 
Girls, toe high-stepping entourage 
of second world war fame. 

Aide memoire 

■ “Persistence pays off” might be 
the new school motto for St Aidan’s 
high school in PouRon-le-Fylde, 
Lancashire. Increasingly strapped 

for cash, the school scouted round 
for sponsors. Alan Leeson, the 
headmaster, approached C-anatxx 
Energy Ventures, a Houston-based 
company that is building a gas-fired 
power station in nearby Fleetwood. 

It took 21 transatlantic phone 
calls before the enterprising head, 
who is also an Anglican priest got 
through to Dennis Volter, the 
company's president. “He came 
after me and didn’t give up. That 
impressed me," says Volter, who 
eventually stumped up £50,000, 
ma tchin g a s imilar amount from 
British Aerospace. 

Though maybe Volter was also 
swayed by family history - he was 
bom in Liverpool and still has 
relatives in Lancashire. 

Hans on board 

■ Picture toe scene. A bunch of 
central bankers and finance 
ministers shooting the rapids on 
Wyoming’s Snake River last 
s umm er when certain members of 
the party start to go adrift. 

A whiff of panic spreads among 
the remaining members Of the 
world’s financial community, as 
they realise that they may not be 
able to walk on water after all. Cue 
Bundesbank president Hans 
Tietmeyer, who turns to his fellow 
paddler, Nigel Lawson, Britain's 
ex-chancellor of the exchequer, with 
the ultimate reassurance: "The 
Bundesbank is with you.” Panic 

Well, that’s Tietmeyer’s version. 



Wednesday October 26 1994 

Burning slick pours into two rivers in Komi province UK 9.dV3HC6 TTH 

Arctic threatened by oil 

^ • i I |3 nn t 

** Quicker -*■ 

spillage in north Russia computers HkSIS ® 

■^L. ^ ^ M- Innoaicfon/vi anri mnkiU nhnno rails. WdL 

Brossette JB7/ 

Sanitaire - Chauffage- Canalisation 

tutmetau* 1 
eK 5U»/ 


Sprint’s triple jump 

By George Graham 
fri Washington, John ThomhJU 
in Moscow and Anthony 
Robinson in London 

A burning oil slick spilling out 
from a pipeline in the northern 
Russian province of Komi is 
threatening to create an environ- 
mental disaster in the fragile 

Komi officials asked Moscow 
for help in dealing with the spill 
yesterday, after the New York 
limes had already repotted the 
leakage and said that it 
amounted to only 100,000 barrels. 

But Mr Bill White, the US dep- 
uty energy secretary, said a US 
company at the site had esti- 
mated the spill at 2m barrels, 
nearly eight tunes the size of the 
Exxon Valdez disaster in Alaska. 

Another western company had 
measured the slick at 1 metre 
deep and 12 metres wide, stretch- 
ing for 6-7 miles. 

“It is a significant spill, 
whether it be 100,000 barrels or 
2m or somewhere in between. 
The fact is the Arctic environ- 
ment heals a lot more slowly 

than other environments.” Mr 
White said. 

The oil slick is reported to have 
built up from leaks in a 47km 
pipeline run by Komineft. a Rus- 
sian oil production association. 
The leak is believed to have 
begun in February, but had been 
retained by an earth dam. 

Following heavy rains this 
mouth, the dam burst, spilling oil 
into the Kova River, which runs 
into the Pechora River and the 
Barents Sea. US officials say the 
slick was probably set on fire in 
an attempt to contain it 

The US Department of Energy 
yesterday released a video of the 
jp-fllt showing flamin g oil flowing 
down a river. 

The river, which is expected to 
freeze over in the next two 
weeks, would extinguish a thin 

The Komi Republic is one of 
the richest of Russia's oil prov- 
inces. but the government only 
advised the Moscow disaster cen- 
tre yesterday, after news of the 
spill had been published in the 

Russian government officials 

said last night the spill was 
under control and that environ- 
mentalists' claims were alarmist. 

The region is of great interest 
to western oil companies seeking 
to exploit the nearby Timan- 
Pechora basin. A consortium of 
companies, including Conoco of 
the US and Norsk-Hydro of Nor- 
way, is studying the feasibility of 
building an offshore terminal to 
ship oil to western markets. 

Vast areas of ecologically frag- 
ile Russian tundra have been 
churned up over decades by 
exploration vehicles or turned 
into polluted bogs by oil from 
leaking pipes and production 

The latest accident is not an 
isolated incident in a country 
where production at all costs has 
been the rule for decades. The 
pipeline had been leaking since 
1988 and had been repeatedly 
patched until nearly 9m gallons 
of oil and oil products poured out 
in a second spillage three months 

Much of the oil will probably 
spread into the surrounding 


By Clive Cookson, 
Science Editor 

UK life insurers face $3.2bn 
bill for wrong pension advice 

By Alison Smith and Jim Kelly 

UK life insurers must review 
hundreds of thousands of per- 
sonal pensions sold since 1988 
and compensate those investors 
who were wrongly advised to buy 
them, the Securities and Invest- 
ments Board said yesterday. 

Estimates of the potential bill 
for compensation are now put at 
up to £2bn (J3-2bn) by Coopers & 
Lybrand, the accountants. 

The SIB announcement came 
after a detailed study of the scale 
of poor advice in selling personal 
pensions, ft concluded that this 
was far greater than had been 

“It is now clear that too many 
personal pensions were improp- 
erly sold in the past." said Mr 
Andrew Large, SIB chairman. 

The SIB, the chief London 
financial regulator, has told life 
companies and independent 
advisers to review the cases of at 
least 350,000 customers before the 
end of 1996. 

Most UK life .companies - 
including Prudential the largest 
- reserved judgment on the 
report Some welcomed rt, includ- 
ing Pearl Assurance and 
Bradford and Bingley Building 
Society, the largest organisation 
to offer independent advice. 

Legal & General, one of the 
UK’s largest life insurers, voiced 
dissent Mr David Prosser, chief 
executive, said the SIB had put 
too great a burden on the life 
industry, and L&G would have to 
make additional provisions. 

Since 1988. some 600.000 per- 
sonal pensions have been sold to 
people transferring lump sums 
from UK occupational schemes. 
Separately, a survey for the SIB 
by actuaries Bacon & Woodrow 
has also estimated that in more 
than 850,000 cases, people were 
advised to opt out of their 
employers’ schemes or not to join 
In the first place. 

In March this year the SIB said 
that advice to take a personal 
pension by opting out of or not 

joining an occupational scheme 
nearly always meant lower retire- 
ment benefits, and should be gen- 
erally presumed to be wrong. 

Mr Large said yesterday that 
the SIB's programme was 
intended to minimise the need 
for investors to go to court to get 

The apparent extent of poor 
advice has renewed public con- 
cern about standards of selling 
and of regulation in the life 

Compensation to investors who 
have suffered from bad pensions 
advice will have to be paid in the 
first instance by the life company 
or independent adviser that sold 
the pension. 

Where an adviser has gone out 
of business, investors will be eli- 
gible for compensation from the 
Investors Compensation Scheme. 

Most life houses welcome SIB 
plan. Page 8 
Editorial Comment, Page IS 
See Lex 

Saudi Arabia I Major probes sleaze 

Continued from page 1 

Continued from Page 1 

position has steadily deteriorated 
and the impact on the market 
has become ever more apparent" 
It added; "Repeated promises of 
payment from senior Saudi offi- 
cials. including promises made 
directly to UK trade ministers, 
have not been Fulfilled and 
there is no suggestion of an 
early improvement in the situa- 

report says that other ministers 
had been questioned as a result 
of the allegations first passed to 
Mr Major three weeks ago. Sir 
Robin concludes that the allega- 
tions were “demonstrably false". 
The director of public prosecu- 
tions has been asked by Mr John 
Major to examine notes of a 
meeting between the prime min- 
ister and an intermediary, who 

was allegedly acting on behalf of 
Mr Mohamed Fayed and made 
allegations about pay to MPs. 

Mr Major disclosed the involve- 
ment of the DPP in response to 
suggestions from a Conservative 
backbencher. Sir Peter Tapsell, 
that Mr Fayed should be prose- 
cuted for blackmail. 

The allegations were dismissed 
by Mr Fayed who said he would 
sue Sir Peter if he made his sug- 
gestions outside the House. 

British researchers, funded by a 
Japanese company, announced a 
breakthrough yesterday in elec- 
tronic miniaturisation. They said 
it could lead to computer memo- 
ries and microprocessors one 
five-hundredth the size and 500 
times faster than today’s silicon 

Scientists at the Toshiba Cam- 
bridge Research Centre and Cam- 
bridge University have jointly 
developed the world's first pro- 
cess for making “quantum effect 
integrated circuits' 7 . These futur- 
istic devices consist of milli ons of 
microscopically small compo- 
nents on a fingernail-sized chip. 

Professor Michael Pepper, man- 
aging director of the research 
centre, said the achievement was 
comparable to the original dis- 
covery in 1958 of the technology 
for making the silicon chip. 

That breakthrough led to the 
"information technology revolu- 
j turn" which started in the early 
1970s and is still gathering pace. 

Many electronics laboratories 
have made such microscopic 
components, including "quantum 
wires" 100,000 times thinner than 
a human hair. But their individ- 
ual production is painstakingly 
slow and expensive. 

The Toshiba process makes it 
possible to mass-produce them on 
integrated circuits like orthodox 
chips. The process has several 
stages and is technically com- 
plex. but Prof Pepper said it was 
"highly manufacturable and 
could readily be transferred to a 
production environment" at rea- 
sonable cost 

The microscopic components - 
no more than 10 atoms across - 
are so small that the electrons in 
them behave both as particles 
and waves, in accordance with 
the somewhat bizarre predictions 
of quantum theory. This allows 
the circuits to switch far tester 
than those in conventional chips. 

The main technical barrier still 
to overcome is that today's quan- 
tum devices can only operate 
when cooled in liquid helium to 
temperatures close to absolute 
zero. Scientists can, however, 
foresee them being developed to 
work at room temperature. 

Chips based on the technology 
could reach the market in about 
10 years. There are many possi- 
bilities, including super-fast 
memory and logic circuits for 
computers, as well as more pre- 
cisely controllable lasers. 

Mr Sei-Ichi Takay anag i, Tosh- 
iba’s senior adviser on research, 
said the technology was still too 
far from the market to transfer to 
the company's Japanese R&D lab- 
oratories. It would be developed 
further in Cambridge for five 
years or so - and licensed to 
other companies that want it. 

Prof Pepper predicted that 
many new applications would 
emerge, which no one had yet 
thought of. “Think of all the 
changes in computing and com- 
munications over the last 25 
years, and try to extrapolate 
those 25 years ahead," he said. 


Europe today 

A series of fronts win dominate Europe. One 
front, associated with low pressure north of 
the UK. wifi cause rain in northern parts of 
the British Isles. Showers will occur 
elsewhere in the UK and in the Benelux and 
north-west France. A second frontal zone will 
produce rain in southern Scandinavia, 
western Poland, the north-west Balkans and 
over the Alps. This front will produce cloud 
but not rain in southern France and northern 
Spain. Cloud and sunny periods will occur 
elsewhere in Spain and France as well as in 
Italy and the north-east Balkans. A third 
frontal zone will bring rain to the Baltic stales 
and western Russia. Western Turkey will 
have thunder showers. 

toco •. .1 1010/,^ •• .1080 ■ Hp 



IT • 



Five-day forecast 

Low pressure will approach western Spain, 
creating a frontal zone which will bring rain to 
south-west Europe. Rain is also expected in 
south-east Europe during the weekend. 
North-west Europe will continue to be 
unsettled. Scattered cloud will be 
interspersed with showers and temperatures 
are expected to fall. The southern Balkans 
will be sunny but thunder showera will recur 
during the weekend. 


' Art 



72 J 

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Situation at 12 0MT. Temperatures m&omum foe day. Forecasts by Mateo Corrau# of me 

Abu Dhabi 

Ac era 





B. Aims 






















t Uf 


























































Hong Kong 


































Cape Town 








No other airline flies to more cities 
around the world. 





Las Palmas 







21 Madrid 
10 Majorca 

10 Malta 

21 Manchester 

11 Mania 

11 Melbourne 
6 Mexico City 

26 Miami 

31 Milan 

20 Montreal 
33 Moscow 
13 Munich 
35 Nairobi 

32 Naples 
25 Nassau 
25 New York 

21 Nice 
19 Nicosia 
13 Oslo 

8 Paris 
U Perth 
24 Prague 


















S. Fisco 






































































For the first time since the break-up of 
AT&T. US consumers will be able to 
choose the same brand for local, 
long-distance and mobile phone calls. 
That, at any rate, is the objective of 
Sprint’s alliance with three of the larg- 
est US cable television groups. Actu- 
i ally achieving this aspiration will not 
be easy. Massive investment and regu- 
latory changes will be needed before 
the cable tv companies' networks can 
provide local phone services. Simi- 
larly, the partners have only a small 
role in mobile communications, 
though this could change if they are 
successful in winning licences in the 
US government’s forthcoming auction. 

Sprint's allian ce is a ground-break- 
ing event in the test-changing US com- 
munications landscape. The Baby 
Bells, the dominant forces in the local 
telephone market, are the most vul- 
nerable. Not only could they lose local 
customers to Sprint's venture; their 
high margins for providing local 
access to long-distance operators will 
be under threat The Bells are likely to 
respond by redoubling their efforts to 
be allowed to enter the television and 
long-distance markets, while building 
their own alliance s in mobile commu- 

Sprint’s long-distance rivals may be 
under pressure to respond too. Much 
depends on whether consumers would 
really prefer to buy packages of local, 
long-distance and mobile services from 
a single source. If Sprint is right, 
AT&T will need to add a local offering 
to its existing long-distance and 
mobile services. MCI, whose attempts 
to knit together mobile alliances have 
so far floundered, will have even fur- 
ther to go. 


Share price relative to ihe 
FT-SE-A Aff-Sftare Index. 

150 - — 

140 - — 

130 1 

120 j 

90 * * * 

199 3 

Source: FT Graphite 

where manufacturers appear increas- 
ingly competitive. It will also need to 
cope with additional imports from 
East European suppliers which should 
have sorted out their difficulties by 

If Europe's industry is ever to 
become self-supporting and provide a 
decent return on capital, the Commis- 
sion win have to reject demands for 
state subsidies next time round. Aid 
may preserve politically sensitive, jobs, 
but it perpetuates inefficient produc- 
tion and costs huge sums to the tax- 
payers. Most importantly, subsidies 
threaten free trade. If Europe’s steel ' 
industry is to prosper it must export, 
especially to Asia where growth is ] 
strong and capacity shortages exist ! 
Asian doors will be justifiably barred | 
to a subsidised European steel sector. 

could be more at risk, as it is harder to 
see how they could dip into some of 
their Investors’ funds to pay compen- 
sation to others. 

The cost of compensation will be 
only part of the industry's agony. It 
will face an adminis trative ni ghtmar e 
sorting out which policy-holders qual- 
ify for compensation. Each case will 
require detailed individual investiga- 
tion. Disputes involving lawyers can- 
not be ruled out. There will also be 
long-term damage to the industry's 
reputation. Sales of pensions and 
other life policies have already fallen 
sharply. In future, salespeople will 
need to put in much greater effort if 
they are not to tell foul of the regula- 
tor’s “best advice" rules. With full 
commission disclosure due next year, 
the industry may be unable to pass on 
the costs of good advice. 


The scale of the UK's personal pen- 
sions scandal continues to shock. It 
now looks as though about 650,000 peo- 
ple were persuaded to take out per- 
sonal pensions instead of staying with 
or joining company pension schemes. 
Compensation for such “opt-oats” 
could exceed that for those who 
stopped working for a company and 
then transferred a lump sum out of its 
scheme. Nobody knows how big the 
total compensation bill will be. But 
the figures of £lbn-£2bn being bandied 
around do not look ridiculous. 

Many life companies will be able to 
shield their shareholders from the 
worst of the damage. The bulk of the 
compensation may be paid from “with- 
profit" funds, meaning policy-holders 
will bear the pain. Unit-linked groups 

European steel 

The main problem with the Euro- 
pean Commission's rationalisation 
plans for the steel industry was tim- 
ing. The moment to cut capacity is 
when an industry heads into reces- 
sion. not when it is clambering back 
to profitability. No management will 
cut capacity when its plants, however 
inefficient are set to generate cash. 

Even so, the Commission’s failure to 
tackle the industry's structural over- 
capacity will have a long-term cost. 
The pain during the next trough is 
likely to be that much worse. Continu- 
ing excess capacity will once again 
drive prices so low that steel makers 
will be unable to cover their fixed 
costs. But next time the sector will 
find it more difficult to export its way 
out of trouble, particularly to the US 


Wolseley’s profits weathered the 
recession much better than the rest of 
the building materials sector so it was 
only to be expected that its recovery 
would be less dramatic. Only to be 
expected, but wrong. While few other 
companies are anywhere near match- 
ing their previous peak profits Wolse- 
ley’s earnings per share have now 
topped the 1990 record by more than a 

The achievement is all the more 
impressive given that two-thirds of 
Wolseley’s UK distribution sales go 
into the still depressed repair and 
maintenance market In the US it has 
been been boosted by a building boom 
in the Carolinas. But the success of ! 
Brossette in the difficult French mar- ; 
ket proves once again what a success- 
ful and highly exportable formula Wol- 
seley has developed. 

Fooled too often by the manage- 
ment’s cautious statements, the City is 
looking for healthy growth for the 
next couple of years. Apart from 
France, it would be optimistic to look 
for significant further improvements 
in its TOAin mar kets The US may have 
a little way to go and Wolseley could 
hope for some upturn in the UK, but 
margins are already near the peak 
achieved in easier inflationary times. 

However, Wolseley has shown it can 
thrive in low growth conditions and 
there is no reason to suppose the flow 
of acquisitions will dry up. Given its 
muscular balance sheet and buoyant 
cash flow, the group may step up the 
pace and scale of its deals. But it 
would be wrong to expect anything 
spectacular. That would not be Wolse- 
ley’s style. 

Without us, 
there’d be no new 
wave of water jets. 



Fur farther mformauon sb«u the Tl Group, contact the Department of Public Affairs, Tl Group pic. Lwnboiira Coon. Abingdon. Oxon OXH MJ 1 1, England. 



v?k - 

Rodnquez Cantieri Navali, designers of ihe “Guizzo" have taken full advantage of the exciting possibilities or water jet 
propulsion. The world’s largest water jet ferry, it speeds 450 passengers between Genoa and Sardinia ai a moltc vivace 43 knots. 
Keeping bearing oil in - and sea water out of- its 38.000 horse power triple water jet propulsion unit is a critical (ask for the 
John Crane Marine hub and input shaft sealing system. Made from specially designed. lightweight, composite materials, 
the system incorporates split-form sealing faces which can be replaced at sea if necessary, enabling the ’‘Giuno’ to 

continue making waves. 

John Crane is one of Tl Croups three specialised engineering businesses, die others being Dowty and Bundy. 

Each one is a technological 3nd market leader in its Reid. Together, their specialist skills enable 
Tl Group to get the critical answers right for its customers- Worldwide. 





... "aaaBBgMas.'g'g.™ 




Wednesday October 26 1994 




US oil groups 
diverge in quarter 

Texaco, the US energy group, reported higher 
operating earnings for the third quarter while Chev- 
ron saw operating earnings drop in both upstream 
and downstream operations. Page 21 

Italian insurer to raise $1.5bn 

Kurdone Adriatica Sicurtd, the Italian insurer con- 
trolled by Allian z of Germany, is to raise at least 
I^SOObn ($L5tm) with an issue of shares and bonds 
at a deep discount to the market price The capital 
increase will pay for its acquisition of El via, Swit- 
zerland's fifth largest insurance company. Page 18 

A difficult hand for Stonedpher 

Harry Stoned pher, the new chief executive of 
McDonnell Douglas, the US aircraft maker, likes to 
play cards. But with consolidation in the defence 
industry leading to lower production runs, he Tins a 
difficult hand. Page 18 

northern Telecom restructure pays off 

Northern Telecom, the Canadian telecommunica- 
tions equipment maker, is starting to see the bene- 
fits of its restructuring and growing exposure to 
overseas markets. Page 20 

Matsushita on a roll 

Matsushita, the Japanese consumer electronics 
maker, reported a 26 per cent rise in non-consoli- 
dated recurring profits in the six mo nths to Septem- 
ber and said full-year results would be better than 
originally expected- Page 22 

HK exchange sparks row 

The Futures Exchange of Hong Kong plans to intro- 
duce futures contracts on two of the colony’s big- 
gest stocks, HSBC Holdings and Hong Kong Tele- 
communications - sparking a confrontation with 
the stock exchange. Page 22 

Lep In debt talks with lenders 

Lep Group, the loss-making UK freight forwarding 
and security company, has begun talks with its 
lenders in an attempt to reduce its £340m ($557m) 
debt Page 26 

McKechnle maintains dividend 

McKechnie. the UK plastics and metals components 
group, maintained its dividend at the samp level for 
the sixth consecutive year. Page 27 

Tractors hope for blockade 

Pakistan’s tractor industry is fighting a government 
plan to import up to 60,000 tractors by next year 
from Poland and Belarus. Page 28 

Cadbury may raise Dr Pepper stake 

Cadbury -Schweppes might amend its stake in Dr 
Pepper/Seven-Up, the third biggest soft drinks 
group in the US. Shares in the UK soft drink group 
fell lOp to 425p, while Dr Pepper rose $2% to $25, by 
midday. Page 29 

US Indicator rescues bourses 

New lows for the dollar, and further weakness nr 
bonds took bourses to falls averaging 2 per cent in 
the early afternoon, when a slippage in US con- 
sumer confidence in October seemed to rescue them 
from their worst fears. BackPage 

Companies hi this Issue 






Bar & Wallace 



Blacks Leisure 
Boxmore Inti 
Bradford Property 
Credit Suisse 


Eastman Kodak 

Edinburgh Inv Trust 

Hot Russian Front 

Guardian Media 
Hindustan Lover 
hfino Motors 

Imperial OS 
. Intel 

JJB Sports 
JB West 


London Merchant 
MAN Nutcfahraeuge 





McDonnel Douglas 






Morgan Stanley 



N Broken Pefco 









Northern Telecom 



Ocean Wilsons 








Placer Pacific 

Prospect Inds 













RC Cement 

RJR Nabisco 


Salomon Bros 


Scot Metropolitan 

Shel Canada 














Sunset + Vine 



Tata OH Mills 



Tetefbnos da Mexico 









Tomorrows Leisure 









US Steel 



Watt Disney 









WBhefcn VWBwlmsen 








Market Statistics 

reports service 30-31 
Benchmark Govt Ponds 2* 

Bond futures and options 24 

Bon d prices andyta kte 24 

COavnotiftiss prices 
. addends announced, UK 2B 

BUS currency retee 34 

Euotatf prices 24 

Rnd Interest Indces 24 

FT-A World Mere Back Fags 
FT GoH Mines index 2S 

FM9IAM bond sw 24 

FT-SE Actuaries Indices 29 

Foreign exchange . 
Sta prices 
LHte equity options 
London share service 
Lender? mi cptfons 
Managed funefe sendee 
Money markets 
New Ml bond tesw# 
New York share service 
Recam Issues, UK 
Shot-term Int rams 

US Merest rates 

World Stock Markets 














Chief price changes yesterday 




2 as 





















Dr Ftepent 25 




81 Vi 












am Kodak 










Sab SA 





Mar tads 








Osborne UBh 












Mete (dan 



Heu Scone 



















Banc Coro 




(Mi IM 




MM Meg 











TOKYO (Van} 


Honshu ta 



































Shaft tM 























W* 8 Dudley 



Kodak earnings slide 33% 

Tenneco to 
pay $113m 
for German 
car exhaust 

By Laurie Morse in Chicago 

Tens ecu, the diversified US 
industrial company, is wpeetori 
to announce today that it will 
buy Gillet, a German automotive 
components manufacturer, for 
cash and assumed debt in a deal 
valued at 

The acquisition will boost Ten- 
neco’s European presence tn the 
original equipment sector of the 
components market and will give 
the company a foothold in 
emerging markets where Gifiet 
is already supplying customers. 

The purchase marks a farther 
expansion by US component 
manufacturers into the European 
market, where several of Ten- 
neco's competitors have already 
identified growth opportunities. 

GiDet, based in Edencoben, is 
Europe’s largest maker of 
exhaust systems for new cars. It 
supplies parts to all of Europe's 
main carmakers. With 2,000 
employees at 14 plants, includ- 
ing three in the UK, GUlet had 
sales of 5275m last year. 

Tenneco is expected to merge 
family-owned Gillet into its 
Walker Manufacturing subsid- 
iary, which produces exhaust 
systems as replacement parts in 
the US and Europe. Walker had 
sales of about 5900m in 1993, 
including $219m from its Euro- 
pean operations. Walker and Gil- 
let combined will give Tenneco a 
leading position in Europe’s orig- 
inal and replacement equipment 

The purchase will be the third 
in a series of acquisitions aimed 
at bolstering Tenneco’s three 
core businesses - natural gas, 
packaging and automotive com- 
ponents. It agreed last month to 
buy a US power gen e ra ti ng and 
natural gas development com- 
pany for S60m and said it would 
spend 573m to upgrade a US con- 
tainerboard plant 
Tenneco’s investment in GiDet 
comes as ft makes plans to shut 
its 86-year-old German tractor- 
making operation as part of a 
worldwide retrenchment 
JJ. Case, Tenneco’s heavy 
equipment subsidiary, will close 
its tractor factory in Neuss some 
time after June 1996. The Neuss 
plant has 1,300 employees. 

The company believes that the 
European auto components mar- 
ket offers more potential for 
growth than farm equipment 
Securities analysts expect Ten- 
neco to report third-quarter 
earnings of about 74 cents per 
share today, and to announce the 
Gillet acquisition. 

By Tony Jackson in New York 

Eastman Kodak, the photo- 
graphic manufacturer, 
announced a further decline in 
operating profit in the third quar- 
ter and said restructuring might 
be necessary in the fourth quar- 
ter. Profits from the company’s 
imaging business, now almost its 
sole activity after an SSbn dis- 
posal programme, were down 25 
per cent in the quarter despite a 
12 per cent rise in sales. 

Net earnings fell 33 per cent to 
5193m, or $0.57 per share, exclu- 
ding last year's restructuring 

charge of S353m. Kodak said 
charges stemming from the 
write-down of assets had cost 12 
cents per share In the quarter. 
First-time consolidation of its 
Qualex photo-finishing business 
had cost a further 6 cents a 
share. Without Qualex. group 
sales were up 8 per cent 
Kodak’s shares, which had 
largely discounted the news, fell 
5% to $47%. The shares are now 
11 per cent off their mid-Septem- 
ber peak, when the market was 
enthusiastic about rapid asset 
disposals by the new chairman, 
Mr George Fisher. 

The company said yesterday 
that besides its stock problems, it 
had been affected by pricing pres- 
sures and cost increases in adver- 
tising, administration and 
employment benefits. Mr Fisher, 
who described the results as 
“mixed", said “our cost manage- 
ment efforts continued during 
the third quarter and will carry 
into the fourth quarter. . . Kodak 
will not inventory its problems 
and carry them forward. We will 
emerge from 1994 with a strong 
balance sheet and a solid bench- 
mark Tor measuring future per- 

The commercial i m a g i n g divi- 
sion suffered a particularly sharp 
profits fall of 39 per cent in the 
quarter to S94m, with margins 
down from JL5 per cent to 49 per 
cent Copiers were hit by slug- 
gish sales. Kodak said. Profits 
from consumer imaging were 
down 19 per cent to 5269m. with 
margins down from 24.6 per cent 
to 16.7 per cenL 
Kodak said it was “hard to 
speculate" on the si2e of any new 
restructuring programme. Last 
year’s 5353m restructuring pro- 
gramme came before Mr Fisher's 
arrival, it pointed out. 

RWE gains 
despite loss 
from waste 
unit and 
mine strike 

By Judy Dempsey in Essen 

Profits and turnover for RWE. 
Germany's largest utility group 
which is diversifying into tele- 
communications, increased last 
year. This was in spite or losses 
In its waste management divi- 
sion and a lengthy strike at its 
mining subsidiary in the US, Mr 
Friedhelm Gicske. board chair- 
man said yesterday. 

However, improvements in the 
chemical, energy and petroleum 
sectors helped offset these losses 
to allow RWE to increase the 
annual dividend of DM12 to 
DM13, plus a bonus of DM1. 

The group’s net profit rose 
DM41 m to DM922m ($594.8m) 
while external net sales, 
increased 5 per cent, or DM2.7bn. 
to DM55.8bn. Exports, which 
account for 1&5 per cent of last 
year’s turnover, rose 0.7 per 
cent, from DM9. 4bn to 

The' main growth sectors 
include the mining and raw 
materials division, which grew 
3.3 per cent to DM2.4bn, the 
chemicals and petrochemicals 
division, where sales increased 
8.9 per cent to DM22£bn, and 
the mechanical and plant engi- 
neering divisions, which rose 
10.6 per cent to DM6£bn. 

In spite of persistent problems 
in the waste management divi- 
sion, partly caused by losses 
incurred at NuKEM, RWE’s US 
subsidiary, Mr Gieske said be 
expected this sector to “come out 
of the red from 1995-96 

He said the ending of a seven- 
month coal strike at the US* 
based Consul Energy, in which 
RWE holds a 50 per cent stake, 
and which cut sales by 521m, 
was expected to lift coal output 
for this year. 

RWE will target much of its 
DM32bn Investment In the 
energy, telecommunications and 
construction sectors during the 
next five years. 

The group’s entry into the tele- 
communications sector, through 
the purchase of Preussag Mobil* 
funk, and the establishment of a 
new company under RWE Ener- 
gie to tap the private radio-data 
field, will allow RWE to estab- 
lish a nationwide infrastructure 
by 1997. 

RWE has energy interests in 
Laubag, east Germany’s largest 
lignite, or brown coal fields, and 
Veag, the region's main utility 
and electricity grid. Since 1990. 
RWE has already invested more 
than DM2Jbn in east Germany. 

Back to barrier breaking 

Patrick Harverson explains why the long bond yield rattled markets 

Dizzy at 
8% but 
now up 
or down? 

Par cant 

30-year benchmark 

Per cam 
- *5 

A lthough Wall Street had 
been expecting it for 
some time, when the 
yield on the 30-year US govern- 
ment bond closed above 8 per 
cent for the first time in 2% years 
on Monday night, it still sent a 
sTintMer through finanrial mar- 
kets. Analysts throughout the US 
attested to the significance of the 
bond yield breaking through that 

Mr Robert Brusca, chief econo- 
mist at Nikko Securities in New 
York. said. “Psychologically, this 
is kind of chilling to people - it 
tends to make them pessimistic.” 
Mr Lincoln Anderson, director of 
global research at Fidelity, the 
big US mutual funds group based 
in Boston, agreed: “It’s an impor- 
tant level - you get through 8 per 
cent, and suddenly you start 
thinking about 9 per cent” 

Bond prices have been faffing - 
and correspondingly, yields ris- 
ing - since late last year, when 
the yield an the long bond hit a 
30-year tow of 5.79 per cent At 
first, the markets decline was 
prompted by expectations that 
rising economic growth would 
lead to higher inflation, which 
undermines the value of fixed-in- 
come investments such as bonds. 

The sell-off In the bond market, 
however, did not really begin to 
pick up until February, when the 
Federal Reserve engineered the 
first of a string of interest rate 
increases aimed at subduing eco- 
nomic growth and inflation. The 
tightening of monetary policy by 
the Fed, which has raised to 4.75 
per cent short-term interest rates 
from below 3 per cent in January, 
was partly intended to reassure 

Sauce B ateman 

investors the Fed had infla tion 
under control 

The bond market was not reas- 
sured. To many investors, the 
Fed's decision to raise interest 
rates five times in seven months 
signalled that the central bank 
was worried that inflationary 
pressures were building up in an 
overheating economy. 

At the same time, the markets 
have had to cope, with a steady 
slide in the value of the dollar 
against the German mark and 
Japanese yen, which has raised 
the possibility that the Fed would 
have to raise interest rates even 
more to support an ailing cur- 
rency. So, when the bond yield 
dosed above 8 per cent In New 
York on Monday, no one was par- 
ticularly surprised. 

Yet, If an 8 per cent bond yield 
is some sort of watershed, what 
are the implications for US finan- 
cial markets? 

Mr Anderson of Fidelity 
believes the biggest problem in 
the markets is not high bond 

yields, but the uncertainty sur- 
rounding Fed policy, which is 
diverting global money flows 
away from the US. The question 
everyone wants to know, he says, 
is how much higher will the Fed 
raise rates? “It’s all about capital 
flows. No one wants to be in a 
market where the central bank’s 
tightening.” Mr John Lipsky. 
chief economist at Salomon 
Brothers, agrees. “There's little 
reason to expect a turnround in 
international Investor attitudes 
any time soon." 

At some stage, however, yields 
will reach a point where they are 
high enough to start luring 
money away from stocks and into 
bonds - reversing the process 
which saw billions of dollars flow 
out of secure but poorly-yielding 
government securities and into 
stocks during the low-interest 
environment of 1990-1983. 

While this is bad news for 
stocks, it bodes well for 
short-term government bonds, 
and short-term yields. 

There are also grounds for opti- 
mism over long-term yields. 
Essentially, an 8 per cent bond 
yield reflects the market’s fears 
of higher infla tion. Those feats, 
however, may never be realised if 
the Fed's rate increases begin to 
slow down the economy, and 
with it the rate of inflation. At 
some point, investors will realise 
that with inflation less threaten- 
ing than feared, yields are not 
going any higher. 

Mr Brusca of Nikko Securities 
believes the worst may be over 
for the bond market. “1 don't 
think yields are going much 
higher from where they are right 
now. There are things in the 
works that are slowing this econ- 
omy down." Consequently, he 
believes it is time for investors to 
buy bonds. “If you have any kind 
of longer term perspective, these 
are world-class interest rates. 
This is a point where an eco- 
nomic pragmatist has to say: 
•You've got to buy bonds.’" 
International bonds. Page 34 

Barry Riley 

There’s no such thing as 
a free risk model 

Other people’s 
jr "h disasters make 
It excellent reading, 
agg and the financial 

press has scented 
wgFgi plenty of interest- 
ing copy in the 
IV derivatives mar- 

■F kets. Troubles 

have afflicted both the financial 
institutions which originate 
derivatives - most notably Kid- 
der Peabody - and a range of 
hapless clients ranging from 
Procter & Gamble to Glaxo Hold- 
ings and from MetaDgeseDschaft 
to Gibson Greetings. 

Writing off the odd 5100m to 
experience can be painful, but 
the more Important question is 
whether there is a serious risk to 
the stability of the fi n ancia l sys- 
tem as a whole. The subject was 
explored in depth at a conference 
on financial fragility which 1 
attended in Maastricht, the 
Netherlands, last month. The 
general conclusion of the confer- 
ence, which was organised by the 
Limburg Institute of Fi nancial 
Economics (part of the University 
of Limburg) in collaboration with 
Ernst & Young, was inevitably 
open-ended: no, but ... 

A positive view, for Instance, 
was expressed by Jerry Jordan, 
president of the Federal Reserve 
By ifc of Cleveland. Risks are fun- 
damental to the financial system, 
and derivatives are used to redis- 
tribute them. If the overall effect 
is to reallocate risks to those 
market participants best placed 
to handle them, the resu lt should 
be a more robust system. 
Significantly, newspapers 

which headline spectacular tosere 

never inquire about the corre- 
sponding winners - of which 
there must be some, given that 
the derivatives business is a zero 

sum game. Often, of course, the 
gahm will be thinly spread across 
many direct and indirect counter- 
parties. But the point Is that such 
profits serve to strengthen the 
rest of the system. 

Such arguments are damaged if 
too many corporate treasurers 
blunder into half-understood con- 
tracts, under heavy selling pres- 
sure. There is an expensive learn- 
ing curve here. We have seen 
evidence, too, of over-concentra- 
tion of risk, among hedge funds, 
so that market risk may be trans- 
formed into credit risk. 

It is possible to 
learn from past 
mistakes, more 
tricky to guard 
against truly 
uncertain events 

The banks have responded to 
the growth of derivatives by 
developing highly complex risk 
models, designed to wijnimiiw the 
levels of prudential capital while 
satisfying the regulators about 
their security. 

Curiously, J.P. Morgan, an 
industry leader, decided two 
wades ago to Issue a version of 
its proprietary risk management 
model Risk-Metrics free of charge. 

At the Maastricht conference 
Andrew Crockett, general man- 
ager of the Bank for Interna- 
tional Settlements in Basle, was 
especially cautious about the 
impact of shocks. He pointed out 
Frank Knight's 1921 distinction 
between risk and uncertainty. 
Risk relates to events which. 

although not individually fore- 
castable, fellow a probability dis- 
tribution and can therefore be 
modelled and provided for. How- 
ever, uncertainty is unpredict- 
able and unthversiSable. 

Although Crockett did not say 
so, this might be a reason for 
worrying about the robustness of 
the banks’ risk models, which 
depend upon historical correla- 
tions and volatilities. That doom- 
ster, Henry Kaoftnan. dwelt on 
this very theme in a speech in 
Florida on Monday, warning that 
such models were untested in 
any number of difficult scenarios, 
“most importantly a period of 
extreme monetary policy strin- 

Crockett says past examples of 
financial fragility have often 
related to mispriced risk, produc- 
ing bandwagon effects in Third 
World debt or real estate lending. 
At least it is possible to learn 
from such mistakes. It is more 
tricky to assess the necessary 
safeguards against truly uncer- 
tain events such as political 
upheavals or natural disasters. 

This year’s global bond market 
crash has been the worst for 
many years. The turbulence has 
not strictly speaking been the 
result of uncertainty, since the 
US Federal Reserve's decision to 
raise short-term interest rates 
last February was scarcely 
unpredictable. But the implica- 
tion is that market parti rijumte 
have been able to take ever- 
larger bets mi future trends. The 
vulnerability to external shocks 
may have been increased by the 
wider use of derivatives. 

Andrew Crockett did not wish 
to cry wolf. But he was reluctant 
to assume that the rwri. crisis 
would be just one more 1967-style 
near miss. 

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Ras to raise L2,300bn to 
finance Elvia acquisition 

Stonecipher plays a difficult hand 

The McDonnell Douglas chief knows how to gamble, says Bernard Gray 

Harry Stonecipher: ‘getting the C-17 right is my top priority 1 

By Andrew H8I In Milan 

Riimione Adriatic^ SicurtZ, the 
Italian insurer controlled by 
Allianz of Germany, is to raise 
at least L2,30Qbn (SlSbn) with 
an issue of shares and bonds at 
a deep discount to the market 

The capital increase will pay 
for its acquisition of Elvia. 
Switzerland's fifth-largest 
insurance company, which 
should be completed next year. 

Allianz, which controls just 
over 50 per cent of Ras, 
announced at the end of last 
month that the Italian insurer 
would buy a 60 per cent stake 
in Elvia from Swiss Reinsur- 
ance. the world’s second larg- 
est reinsurer. Swiss Re is sell- 
ing its non-core businesses. 
Under its operating accord 
with Allianz. Ras is responsible 
for the insurance activities in 

BCP earnings 
drop 9.7% at 
nine months 

By Peter Wise 
In Lisbon 

Banco Comercial Portugues, 
Portugal’s fifth-largest bank, 
yesterday reported a 9.7 per 
cent drop in nine-month net 
income to Esl3.2bn (S86.3m) 
from Esl4.6bn in the same 
period last year. 

The bank attributed the slide 
to a sharp decrease in profits 
from trading activities as a 
result of lower interest 
rates on bond and money 

In spite of a slowdown in 
credit and deposit growth in 
Portugal due to recession, 
BCPs net assets grew 17.9 per 
cent to Es2.052bn compared 
with the first nine months of 

Total deposits rose 17.5 per 
cent to EsL.635bn but credit to 
customers grew only 2.6 per 
cent to EsSlTba. 

Cash flow increased 3.9 per 
cent to Es45.9bn. 

BOP's hostile bid for a con- 
trolling stake of 40 per cent of 
Banco Portugues do Atlantico, 
Portugal's second-largest bank, 
was vetoed by the government 
in September. 

Switzerland. Austria. Portugal 
and Spain. 

Although the capital 
increase was expected, the tim- 
ing. with Italian and world 
markets depressed, hit the Ras 
share price. Ordinary shares in 
the company fell 5.6 per cent to 
LI 7, 882. compared with an 
opening price of L18.949 and an 
offer price of L12.D00 a share. 
Allianz has indicated it will 
underwrite its share of the cap- 
ital 'increase. . 

Mr Attilio Lentati, managing 
director of Ras, said If the 
group had waited for more pos- 
itive markets, it might have 
lost the opportunity 1 to expand 
its Swiss operations. "The 
operation in Switzerland pres- 
ented itself as an Investment 
opportunity, and we were the 
logical partner." he said. 

In the first stage of the Elvia 
acquisition, Ras will acquire 

By David Blackwell in London 

Wolseley. the world's biggest 
supplier of heating and plumb- 
ing equipment, lifted annual 
profits 67 per cent after a 
strong performance from all its 
divisions, coupled with good 
contributions from acquisi- 

Pre-tax profits for the year to 
the end of July were at the top 
end of analysts' expectations at 
£202.3m (8319.63m). up from 
£121. lm. Turnover rose 31 per 
cent from £2.49bn to £3.25bn. 

Mr Jeremy Lancaster, chair- 
man and managing director, 
said the results from the divi- 
sions across Europe and the US 
had an element of Alice in 
Wonderland - "everyone has 
won and everyone deserves 

The biggest gain came from 
the US. where profits from 
building distribution leapt to 
£S6Am from £47m on turnover 
which rose to £1.72bn from 
£l-2ibn. The first full contribu- 
tion from Erb Lumber, 
acquired last September, was 

Mr Lancaster said that Erb 
and Carolina Builders, both 

Swiss Re’s 60 per cent stake, 
and then launch a full bid for 
the outstanding shares. The 
group yesterday estimated the 
overall investment at 
SFr2^2bn (*l.72bn). 

Ras will raise Ll,150bn with 
an issue of 77m ordinary 
shares and up to 42.3m savings 
shares priced at L12.000 and 
L7.000 respectively, on the 
basis of two new shares for 
every five held. A further 
Ll.lSObu will be raised for Ras 
with the issue of three-year 
bonds by Mediobanca, the 
Milan bank which specialises 
in medium- and long-term cor- 
porate lending, offered to Ras 
shareholders on the same basis 
and at the same price as the 

Warrants attached to both 
the shares and bond issues 
could raise L570bn when con- 
verted into Ras shares in 1997. 

lumber distributors, had been 
"on a roll for two years" with 
30 per cent per annum sales 

In Europe profits from build- 
ing distribution improved to 
£81m from £57. lm on sales of 
£1.14bn. compared with £lbn. 

The UK, where the group has 
444 outlets, performed 
strongly, but Wolseley warned 
that economic recovery in the 
UK was fragile, and it was 
impossible to predict the hous- 
ing market 

The manufacturing division 
lifted profits to £36.6m from 
£26 An on turnover of £390.3m 
compared with £2785m. This 
included a good first full con- 
tribution from Enertech, the 
Swedish oil- and gas-burner 

Net debt at the end of the 
year fell to £56 An, compared 
with £62. 3m, leaving gearing at 
10.1 per cent from 14.7 per cent. 

Earnings per share were 
50.77p, against 33 .60p. A final 
dividend of 12p a share is pro- 
posed, taking the total for the 
year to 16.72p. The board is 
also proposing a one-for-one 
scrip issue. 

Lex. Page 16 

EBRD in 
moves to 
alter bank 

By Anthony Robinson, 
east Europe editor 

The European Bank for 
Reconstruction and Develop- 
ment (EBRD) is shifting away 
from loan finance to a greater 
use of equity products, whole- 
sale banking and trade 
finance, Mr Jacques de Laro- 
siere, the bank president said 

The restructured bank was 
becoming more of a wholesale 
banker by lending and invest- 
, mg large sums of capital in 
local banks and training staff, 
i he added at a meeting organ- 
ised by the Royal Institute for 
International Affairs bat 
hosted by the Bank of 

Since 2992 the bank has 
approved lending and invest- 
ments of more than Ecn750m 
(S3 22.5m) to 40 banks in 14 
conntries and approved an 
additional Eco225m of equity 
to 21 investment funds. These 
two activities accounted for 
more than 20 per cent of the 
bank’s committed portfolio of 
221 board-approved projects in 
21 countries at end-September, 
Mr de Larosiere added 

The EBRD began by taking a 
28.5 per cent equity stake in 
Poland's Wielkopolski Bank 
Kredytowy for 812. 7m in April 
last year. Its most recent 
banking foray was last 
month’s 835m Investment for 
14 per cent of Russia’s Toko- 

Since the resignation of Mr 
Jacques Attali last year the 
new president has poshed 
through cost-cutting and 
organisational changes which 
created a banking group 
organised into specific country 
teams. Over 40 bankers have 
been relocated from the Lon- 
don head office to 14 resident 

The EBRD annual meeting 
in St Petersburg in April com- 
mitted it to projects in all 25 
of the states emerging from 
the collapse of the Soviet 
empire. This means smaller 
loans, more risk and a greater 
use of credit lines, bank-to- 
hank loans, equity funds and 
direct equity investment in 
financial intermediaries," Mr 
de Larosiere said. 

H arry Stonecipher likes 
to play cards. "Poker 
and gin rummy - gin 
rummy is a good game,” he 
smiles. Unfortunately, poker 
sessions these days are a little 

-It’s diffi cult to get five or 
six people together for a game, 
but a group of us do tend to 
play poker in hotel rooms after 
aerospace association meetings 
and conferences." 

Mr Harry Stonecipher, the 
I new chief executive of McDon- 
nell Douglas, will have less 
l ti me for cards in smoke-filled 
i convention rooms, but he may 
still play several difficult busi- 
ness hands there. 

The US defence industry has 
been consolidating rapidly as 
militar y spe nding has plum- 
meted. The challenge is to 
rationalise in the face of far 
lower production runs. 

Even big companies such as 
IBM and Ford have sold their 
defence arms. General Dynam- 
ics has dismembered itself at 
auction and Lockheed and 
Martin Marietta have merged. 

McDonnell Douglas had to 
stand apart from such deals. 
Its finances were too weak for 
the company to become a 
buyer, while pride prevented 

The result is that the once- 
unrivalled group is steadily 
being caught. Its policy of 
splendid isolation may not be 
an option for much longer. 

McDonnell is constrained by 
its mix of products. New air- 
craft are the lifeblood of the 
aerospace business, vet 
McDonnell has no part in the 
S7lbn F-22 next generation 
fighter for the US air force. 

Some of its aircraft are get- 
ting long in the tooth: the F-15 
is the company's top fighter, 
but It first flew in the early 
1970s. The only new military 
aircraft McDonnell has is the 
C-17 transporter, which is late 
and heavily over-budget 
McDonnell has already writ- 
ten off about Slbn in cost over- 
runs on the C-17. Production 
may be stopped at 40 aircraft 
next year unless deliveries 
speed up and the price tag 
drops from the current S28Gm 

Mr Stonecipher is the first 
person in the history of the St 
Louis-based aerospace com- 
pany to be chief executive 
without the benefit of his name 

over the door. He is neither a 
McDonnell nor a Douglas - he 
is an outsider. He will have to 
win the backing of the board 
and the workforce for changes, 
without the benefit of a life- 
time of McDonnell Douglas 
company politics. 

However, he is cheerfully 
upbeat about prospects. “This 

company has a great portfolio 
of products, the Apache [attack 
helicopter], the F-15 and F-18 
(fighters] and the Delta 
[rocket], they stand us in good 
stead. I would rather have 
existing products which we 
can develop and make more 
affordable, than very expensive 
future programmes which 
stand a good chance of being 
being cancelled outright" 

The objective is- to persuade 

the US government and poten- 
tial overseas buyers that 
McDonnell’s current technol- 
ogy is a better bet To do that 
the company is evolving its 
designs mid introducing small- 
batch. manufacturing tech- 
niques to cut the cost of each 

An F-15 costs about $45m. If 

that could be cut to $35m, it 
would look very attractive 
against projections of $165m 
for each F-22 - an estimate 
that a naly sts think will rise. 

Mr Stonecipher has 
short-term objectives, or 
"must-wins" in the jargon. 
"Getting the C-17 right is abso- 
lutely my top priority ... we 
must make the aircraft afford- 
able and deliver it on time. 1 
am looking for many more 

than 40 aircraft for the USAF 
and if we can get its cost below 
$200m each, then I think there 
are substantial export opportu- 

For the C-17, the crunch 
comes next July when a 
month-long trial, partly In sim- 
ulated war conditions, will 
determine whether the pro- 
gramme lives or dies. 

The other short-term priority 
is the civil division, Douglas 
Aircraft. It is limping behind 
Boeing and Airbus, and Mr Sto- 
necipher is looking for strate- 
gic alliances - “but not for 
financial reasons like the deal 
with Taiwan" a proposed joint 
venture which eventually fell 
apart. “We are financially 
stronger now and are looking 
for partners in Europe and the 
Pacific rim who can give us 
access to markets," he says. 

That increased financial 
strength may also increase the 
potential for acquisitions. But 
have all of the best opportuni- 
ties already gone? 

Buying Boeing's defence ■ 
business- would make sense. It 
would give McDonnell a stoke 
in the F-22 and consolidate two 
of the players in the splintered 
helicopter industry. But Boe- 
ing has little reason to sell. 
Northrop Grumman may be 
too large to swallow and faces 
a similar shortage of new prod- 
ucts. Lockheed has married 

If McDonnell's board has any 
worries that it has missed out, 
Mr Stonecipher betrays no sign 
of them. He is a cheerful and 
engaging character, a trait 
which plays well to the work- 
force. The habit of wandering 
in to talk to the 5.20am shift 
also encourages the image of a 
man of the people. 

Mr Stonecipher has the great 
advantage that much of the 
worst bloodletting has already 
been done at McDonnell. 

With the workforce down to 
65,000 from 135,000 in three 
years, and the C-17 and com- 
mercial. aircraft operations 
back on an even keel, the new 
chief executive can afford to 
talk of motivation and building 
the business. 

However, the challenge for 
his tenure, is to bluff his way 
out of a strategic problem with 
a hand which has weakened, 
against other companies which , 
have drawn some good cards. v 
It will not be an easy task. 

Wolseley rises 67% 
as divisions flourish 

‘We are financially stronger and looking 
for partners in Europe and the Pacific rim 
who can give us access to markets- 


















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Nortel benefits from restructuring 

By Bernard Simon in Toronto 

Northern Telecom, the 
Canadian telecommunications 

equipment maker, is starting 
to see the benefits of its 
restructuring and growing 
exposure to overseas markets. 

Highlights of the Toronto- 
based company's third-quarter 
earnings included a 2 per cent 
improvement In margins, and a 
rising share of the market for 
office switchboards (PBXs). 
Revenues grew by 6 per cent, 
in spite of the disposal of sev- 
eral businesses last year and a 

substantial decline in revenues 
from Canada- 

Net earning s were uSSSSm. 
or 22 cents a share, compared 
with a loss of 835m, or 13 cents 
a share, a year earlier. Earn- 
ings were boosted by a $43m. 
one-time jump in investment 

Revenues advanced to just 
over $2bn horn $l.88bn. North- 
ern told analysts yesterday 
that revenues would have risen 
by 14 per cent if divested busi- 
nesses were included. 

New orders in the quarter 
slipped to siJSbn from $2J®n 

a year earlier. “We don't view 
thin with any alarm,” a North- 
ern official said. Customers 
have indicated that their order 
cycles are shortening. The 
company forecast higher 
orders in the traditionally 
Strang fourth quarter. 

The Improved margins were 
ascribed to cost cutting, and to 
a more profitable product mix, 
such as high-margin PBXs. 

Northern told analysts that 
catch-up work on its transmis- 
sion software was now a week 
ahead of schedule. Delays in 
this area contributed to a slide 

in investor confidence early 
last year. But its share price 
has recovered sharply since 

The shares were down 50 
cents at CS4&50 in early trad- 
ing on the Toronto stock 
exchange, compared with last 
year’s low of about C$30. 

One analyst said that he was 
encouraged by Northern's 
growing emphasis on broad- 
band “information highway” 
products and on fast-growing 
overseas markets, such as 
Latin America, China and 

Noranda posts 



By Bernard Simon 

Buoyant metal, wood pulp and 
natural gas markets helped 
propel Noranda, the Ca na d i an 
resources group, to a strong 
third-quarter turnround. 

The group, which is con- 
trolled by Toronto's Bronfman 
family , had earnings of C$78m 
(US$57. 7m), or 35 cents a share, 
compared with an C$8m loss, 
or 8 cents. Revenues climbed to 
CSl-fibn from C*1.29bn. 

The mining and metals divi- 
sion, which includes a 46 per 
cent stake in Falconbridge, the 
nickel producer, earned C$62m, 
compared with a CSlOm loss. 
Mine production has returned 
to “expected levels", and refi- 
neries and smelters are run- 
ning close to full capacity. 

Earning s at Noranda Forest 
rose to C$28m from CSlOm. 
Pulp operations were profitable 
for the first time in two years, 
boosted by strong markets for 
lumber and panelboard. 

Oil and gas income fell to 
CSllm from C$16m. with 
higher gas prices and oil vol- 
umes offset by lower oil prices 
and gas shipments. 

Recovery at RJR Nabisco 

By Richard Waters 

RJR Nabisco's earnings 
bounced in the third quarter, 
ma firing a recovery from the 
price war that rocked the US 
tobacco industry a year ago. 

The group also recorded con- 
tinuing advances in sales in its 
international tobacco business, 
particularly in Eastern Europe, 
and in US biscuit sales. 

The rebound in earnings, to 
13 cents a share from 4 cents a 
year ago, met market expecta- 
tions. It comes as Kohlberg 

Kravis Roberts, an investment 
firm, is seeking to use part of 
its RJR stake to buy Borden, 
another food group. 

Overall operating profits 
rose by $248m to $835 m. US 
tobacco operations, which 
earned 5382m, accounted for 
yiffim of this improvement 
The recovery stemmed in 
part from a 5 per cent increase 
in sales, as RJR switched its 
product mix towards higher- 
value brands like Winston, 
Camel and Salem. 

Sales growth in Russia and 

eastern Europe, meanwhile, 
was the Twain factor behind a 
12 per cent increase in interna- 
tional tobacco revenues. 

Operating earnings in the 
food businesses reached 5285m, 
up from $230m, as North Amer- 
ican earnings were boosted by 
higher sales at Nabisco. The 
company claimed 47 per cent of 
the US cookie and cracker mar- 
ket during the period. 

Overall net income was 
$216m on sales of nearly $4bn, 
compared with $76m on sales 
of $3.6bn a year ago. 

Baxter lowers sales forecast 

By Richard Waters 

Baxter International, the US 
medical supplies and health- 
care group that completed a 
financial restructuring a year 
ago, said yesterday that future 
sales growth would fall short 
of its earlier expectations. 

The company said the out- 
look for the US healthcare mar- 
ket meant it would not reach 
its forecast of growth “in the 
high single digits”. It added, 
however, that it would still 

meet earnings targets by hold- 
ing down costs. 

Baxter, like other hospital 
suppliers, faces pressure from 
big private hospital groups like 
Columbia/HCA and National 
Medical to cut prices. 

Although investor-owned 
companies account for only 14 
per cent of the hospital market 
in the US. their cost-cutting 
efforts have forced non profit- 
making hospitals to scramble 
to catch up. 

The pressures in the US 

healthcare market were evi- 
dent in Baxter’s third-quarter 
results, which showed a small 
decline in sales in medical and 
laboratory products, and distri- 
bution, to $1.4bTL 

Sales of medical specialities, 
however, rose 12 per cent to 

After-tax income rose 10 per 
cent to $149m, in Line with 
expectations, on a 4 per cent 
rise in sales to JBJbn. Earn- 
ings per share were 53 cents, 
up from 49 cents. 

Alt of these securities having been sold, this announcement appears as a matter of record only. 
New Issue 



Clearnet Communications Inc. 

Class A Non-Voting Shares 

Joint Global Coordinators 

Nesbitt Bums Inc. 

Prudential Securities Incorporated 

United States Offering-3,000,000 Shares 

These shares have been cfstributed In the United Sobs by the undesigned. 

Prudential Securities Incorporated 

PaineWebber Incorporated 

Smith Barney Inc. 

Beer, Steams & Co. Inc. CS First Boston Alex. Brown & Sons BT Securities Corporation 


Dean Witter Reynolds Inc. Dillon, Read & Co. Inc. Donaldson, Lufkin & Jenrette 

Securities Corporation 

A.G. Edwards & Sons, Inc. Goldman, Sachs & Co. Hambrecht & Quist Kidder, Peabody & Ca 

Incorpora te d Incorporated 

Lehman Brothers Merrill Lynch & Co. Morgan Stanley & Ca Oppenheimer & Ca, Inc. 


Retohetmer & Company Inc. Gerard KJauer Mattison & Co, Inc. 

Cowen & Company 
Jarmey Montgomery Scott Inc. 

Crowell, Weedon & Co. 

Fahnestock & Ca bxx 

Legg Mason Wood Walker 
Inco r porated 

Morgan Keegan & Company, Ina Needham & Company, Inc. Rauscher Pierce Refsnes, Inc. 

McDonald & Company 

Securities. Inc. 

Raymond James & Associates, Inc. 
Untertoerg Harris 
Gabelli & Company, Inc. 

The Robinson-Humphrey Company, Ina 
Wheat First Butcher Singer 
Pennsylvania Merchant Group Ltd 

Canadian Offering-3,000,000 Shares 

These shares have been cfistributed in Canada by the untfefs&ioci. 

Nesbitt Bums Inc. 

RBC Dominion Securities Ina 
Midland Walwyn Capital Inc. 

First Marathon Securities Limited 
Triton Securities Corporation 

international Offering -1 ,500,000 Shares 

These shares have been cfatributed outside the Unfisd Stales and Canada by the undersigned 

Prudentm-Sache Securities 

PaineWebber International 
Smith Barney ina - 
October 1994 

Nesbitt Bums Ina 

RBC Dominion Securities bra 
First Marathon Securities Limited 

losses take 
toil on 

By Richard Waters 
In New York 

Kemper, the US financial 
services group which has 
agreed to a takeover by life 
insurance group Con seco , 
reported third-quarter operat- 
ing framing s of $32.7m on its 
continuing operations, which 
before one-off factors were flat 
compared with a year ago. 

Mr David Mathis, chairman, 
said the earnings partly 
reflected the “unusual condi- 
tions” and “overall distrac- 
tion” of the third quarter, 
when the company agreed to a 
deal with Conseco to fend off a 
hostile bid from GE Capital 

The figures included a 540m 
investment loss from the sale 
of corporate bonds and collat- 
eralised mortgage obligations, 
derivative-type securities 
which have caused losses at 
several US financial institu- 
tions this year. 

Results were also bit by a 
$3m loss in the company’s 
broking business, reflecting 
lower commissions. 

Overall net income was 
517.5m, or 34 cents a share. A 
year ago, net income of 
5162.4m, or S3.63, reflected a. 
number of one-off factors. 

Record net 
income of 
$341m at 3M 

By Laurie Morse in Chicago 

3M, the Minnesota- based 
adhesives manufacturer, said 
net income rose to a record 
534lm. or 81 cents a share, in 
the third quarter, up from 
5316m. or 73 cents, in the year- 
earlier period. Sales rose to 
$3.Bbn from 3-5bn and operat- 
ing income increased to S574m 
from 5455m. 

For the first nine months, 
3M had net income of 5990m, 
or $2.34 a share, on sales of 
$11.2bn. That compares with 
income of 5997m, or £L24, on 
sales of £2 0.51m a year ago. 

Demand for 
sheet steel 
lifts Stelco 

By Robert Gibbons in Montreal 

Strong demand for sheet steel 
from the North America n car 
industry is fuelling a turn- 
round at Stelco, oue of Cana- 
da's two biggest steel makers. 

Third-quarter net profits 
were C$350m (US$261m) or 48 
cents a share, up from C$2m, 
equal to a loss of 2 emits a 
share after preferred divi- 
dends, a year earlier. Sales 
were C$682m, up 11.5 per cent 

Average revenue per tonne 
shipped was C$636 against 

Nine-month net profit was 
C366m, or 57 cents, against a 
loss of C$5 9m. or 74 cents, 
Sales were C$2.05bn, up 14 per 


French insurance 
group to open 
Beijing office 

Onion des Assurances de Paris, one of France's 

largest insurance grou ps which was privatised 
earlier this year, is planning to begin commer- 
cial operations 111 China over the next few 
months, writes Andrew Jack In Paris. 

Mr Jacques Friedman, chairman, said yester- 
day he hoped to open a representative office in 
waging by the end of the year and was inter- 
ested in es tablishing a joint venture in the 

UAP has just completed the final part of its 
strategy of building a comprehensive network 
across Europe with the acquisition last month 
of Provincial, the privately-held UK general 
insurance company. 

The company had chosen Beijing over 
Shanghai and other larger business centres 
because decisions about insurance are still 
highly centralised in the capital. 

He said UAP was consolidating its many 
recent acquisitions in other countries, rather 
than looking to further international expan- 
sion. This, however, excluded Asia where 
there was tremendous potential growth. 

Several insurance companies have been 
starting ventures in China over the past few 
months, including Axa of France and Pruden- 
tial of the UK 

This month, the People's Bank of China, 
which, is responsible for regulating the insur- 
ance industry in the country, indicated it 
would speed up applications by foreign insur- 
ers because its domestic industry could not 

meet iternarri 3 ! 

Intel subsidiary signs 
pact with Chinese group 

A unit of US chip maker Intel signed a 
co-operation pact with Jitong Communica- 
tions, an information and telecom vendor 
under China's electronics ministry, Reuter 
reports from Beijing. 

The deal Involves Jitong opening an exhibi- 
tion centre in Beijing this year to show Intel 
networking and personal conferencing prod- 
ucts. It will later be contracted as an author- 
ised dealer for those products. 

Intel indicated the Jitong pact would lead to 
lucrative contracts in China's national data 
network development 

Jitong is seen as an importna t contractor 
with China's so-called Three Goldens - an 
urban digital network, dubbed Golden Bridge, 
which is being built a national smart card 
credit clearing network, called Golden Card; 
and a unified customs administration network, 
called Golden Customs. 

Morgan Stanley opens 
office in China 

Morgan Stanley, the US investment bank, yes- 
terday opened a representative office in Bei- 
jing as part of a widening involvement in 
China, writes Tony Walker In Beijing. 

The Morgan Stanley Group also convened a 
mooting in tiie Chinese capital of its “inside 
board” to discuss business opportunities in the 
Asia-Pacific region. This followed an 
announcement on Monday that Morgan Stan- 
ley and the People's Construction Bank of 
China had formed China's first investment 
bank to facilitate capital raising for Chinese 

Mr Richard Fisher, chairman of Morgan 
Stanley, said the bank was devoting more 
resources to China because the country had 
become “an extremely important component 
in Morgan Stanley’s strategy for future 

Wilhelm Wilhelmsen up 
sharply at eight months 

Wilhelm WUhehnsen, the Norwegian shipping 
group, reported a sharp rise in eight-month 
pre-tax profits, before minority interests, to 
NRr39&n ($63m) from NKr98m, writes Karen 
Fossil in Oslo. The group booked a currency 
gain of NKr98m, against a loss of NKr38m last 


Share prlcafSj 


year and benefited from a NKrifOm pifo on 
the 1 disposal of its shareholding m the Polar 

"SSSfiTBA for the period was 
unchanged at NKriL39bn but operator profit, 
tSSK***- sUpped to NKrWm from 

N ^Sisen Lines, in which the group hoMa 
a 55 per cent stake, continued to develop posi- 
tively but tanker activitiM suffered from 
adverse market conditions. The car transport 
business, however, strengthened during the 

second four-month period. 

The shipowner said business activities. other 
frhan tankers, would develop steadily during 
the remainder of the year but warned that 
because of considerable uncertainties over the 
development of the tanker market it might he 
forced to write down the book value of one of 
its vessels. 

Goodyear earnings at 
top end of forecast 

Third-quarter earnings 
at Goodyear, the US 
tyre maker, reached Si 
a share in spite of a fall 
in profit margins. The 
figure was at the top of 
the earnings range 
forecast by the com- 
pany a fortnight ago, 
writes Richard Waters. 
Operating income in 
the tyre business fell 
Slim from a year ago, 
to $250m, while sales 
grew from $2.5bn to 
$2.7bn. The company 
blamed the decline in 
margins on pressure to hold down prices, 
higher rubber costs and the effects of Brazil's 
new economic adjustment plan. 

After the end of the quarter, Goodyear 
imposed price increases of between 3 and 4.5 
per cent 

income in the general products segment fell 
$16m to $31Jm, while oil transportation 
rebounded from a small loss to a $7.9m profit 

However, due to a 532m fall in overhead and 
interest costs, overall net income rose 11 per 
cent to 5151.3m, on sales up 7 per cent 

RC Cement owners to 
place 28% on NYSE 

The Italian owners of RC Cement, the US 
cement company, are to place 28 per cent of 
the company on the New York Stock Exchange 
next month, writes Andrew Hill in 


The company’s controlling shareholders - 
Unicem, the Italian cement business which is 
part of the Agnelli family’s empire, and Ital- 
cement!, Italy's biggest cement manufacturer 
- will place 4125m shares on the market, 
raising between $66m and 578m. 

Unicem owns 66.7 per cent of RC Cement, 
and Italcementi the rest, but after the placing, 
which is being handled by Lazard Frtres, the 
French bank, their stakes will drop to 48 per 
cent and 24 per cent respectively. 

This year, RC Cement Is expected to report 
turnover of 5160m. In the first nine months of 
this year, Unicem said the US company 
increased sales by 24 per cent to 5125m, due to 
a recovery in cement consumption in the US, 
generating a net profit of 512m. 

All divisions contribute 
to Pepkor advance 

Pepkor, South Africa's largest retail group, 
reported a 28 per emit rise in profits before 
extraordinary items to R62Jkn (515.6m) from 
R48.7m on the back of good results from all its 
divisions, writes Mark Suzman in Johannes- 
burg. The group, which includes flagship Pep 
stores, supermarket chain Shoprite and 
unlisted clothing stores Ackermans and Stut- 
tafords, increased turnover to R4J>ibn from 

Operating profit grew 26 per cent to R1 15.1m 
from R98.9m, while tax paid rose to R33.9m 
from R27Jm. The dividend was raised to 10 
cents a share from 8.5 cents and is covered 3.5 


7 be Board of Directors. mmtiig' on 18 Ocfotar 2994 muter ffte ctafnnansftty ofMarOa BoujgUes, 
rev i ewed the Qroapb posftfoa *f 30 JUma 1334 and the prospects for the correct year. 



1st half year 
1994 1993 











Other activities 


- 9.9 




TO* . 


. rwiwilitrteii. tanwwi 




(athttwtaWetbthe&otipV^ » V • 

V=79 - v 

> y-’ v:. . 

‘ , V s ■ '■ 

■ A. «' ,' V " 

file turnover of 7F1 Is Included In the 1994 consafldated turnover as 
Bouygues Increased Hs bolding In TFl at the begbmlflg of 1994. Btdiid- 
hig TF1, the consolidated turnover for the first half of 1994 would have 
been FFr29.3 bSBon which is the same as 1993. 

fnthe Construction sector Bis improvement in the economic situation 
perceived in the fiat half of 1994. has not jet had a positive Impact on 
the activities. 

The Property WvfesiOn continues to adjust to market conations and has 
reducedHs level of activities. 

. Jfr e tunwv er of-intgmgonal operations was. maintained despite Jha 

■st had was Influenced by the 





. Ks S TiT-VYw ■= J . -i 


dtrasotw and triecommudfc. 

financial times Wednesday October 26 1994 a 



:• \\S[ 

Telmex shares tumble as 
results disappoint market 

By Richard Waters 
hi New York 

Texaco, the US energy group, 
reported higher operating earn- 
ings lor the third quarter as a 
recovery in its international 
exploration and production 
business more than mafte up 
for the industry-wide slip in 
downstream refining and mar- 
keting protits in recent 

Chevron, meanwhile, saw 
operating earnings drop in 
both upstream and down- 
stream operations. 

Earnings reports from the 
big US col groups this week 
have generally reflected an 
increase in earnings from 
exploration and production on 

Shell Canada 
ahead sharply 
at nine months 

By Robert Gibbons In Montreal 

Strong domestic and export 
markets for chemicals, oil and 
natural gas and sulphur 
brought a sharp tumround in 
Shell Canada's third-quarter 
and nine-month results. 

Net profit in the third quar- 
to: was C$89m (US$66.8Lm), or 
79 cents a share, up from 
CStm. or 1 cent (after a C$32m 
special charge), in the 1993 
period. Revenues for the com- 
pany, a subsidiary of the Royal 
Dutch Shell group, were 
C$L35bn against Cgl.lTbn. 

Nine months' profit was 
C$217m. or C$1.93, up from 
C$13m, or U cents, on reve- 
nues of C$3.7bn against 
C$3.48bn. Cash flow from 
operations was C$561m against 

The resource sector provided 
most Of the gain, but refining 
margins recovered and a sharp 
rise in contributions from 
flhgmfcalK came mainly from 
stronger styrene prices. 

• Canada's biggest Integrated 
oil company -Imperial Oil (70 
per cent owned by Exxon of 
the US) posted third-quarter 
net profit of C$l71m, or 88 
cents a share, up from C$84m, 
or 43 cents, a year earlier, with 
better upstream and down- 
stream contributions. Nine 
months' profit was C$25801, or 
C$1.33, up 15 per cent from a 
year earlier. Revenues were 
C$8.67bn, little changed. 

the back of higher ofl prices. 
Profit margins from refining 
and marketing, although below 
the high levels of a year ago, 
have caused less damage to 
e arni ngs than generally expec- 
ted, giving a fillip to oil 

Texaco's shares climbed 31% 
to $63% yesterday morning, 
while Exxon was up $1% at 

Shares in Mobil, meanwhile, 
jumped by $2% to 583%, fallow- 
ing an announcement that the 
company was moving ahead 

with, a restructuring pro- 
gramme to reduce costs. 

At Texaco, international 
exploration and production 
profits rose to $83m from $rsm 
a year ago (before one-off 

By Ian Rodger in Zurich 

Sandoz, the Swiss pharma- 
ceuticals, nutrition and chemi- 
cals group, said consolidated 
sales rose only 3 per cent in 
the first nine months of the 
year to SFrll.B9bn ($9.53bn), 
with reported growth 
restrained by the strength of 
the Swiss franc. 

Sandoz, which acquired Ger- 
ber Products, the leading US 
baby food supplier, for $3.7hn 
in August, said group sales 
growth in local currencies was 
about 9 per cent The group 
expected a “sound improve- 
ment" in operating farewitt in 
the frill year. 

By Mark Suzman 
fat Johannesburg 

Attributable earnings at 
Edgars, the South African 
retail clothing group, grew 25 
pa* cent for the six months to 
the end of September to 
Rl25.6m ($35 An) from RllCLSm 
for the same period last 

Sales rose 16 per cent to 
Rl-92bn from R1.65bn, an 
improvement due largely to 
the successful launch of new 
credit lines to consumers. 

Trading profit rose 15 per 

i tems )- This was due to higher 
production of both oQ and nat- 
ural gas in the UK sector of the 
North Sea, lower exploration 
expenses and higher oil prices, 
the company said. Upstream 
income fa the US slipped from 
$138m to $127fiL 

MarfcwHrigr anrf refining prof- 
its, meanwhile, slid from $290m 
to $i67m. 

After one-off items In both 
periods. Texaco reported net 
income of $28lm. down from 
8317m in the 1993 period. At 98 
cents a share, earnings were 
well ahead of most forecasts. 

Chevron, meanwhile, said 
earnings in upstream 
operations fell from 8332m to 
8255m in the latest period, 
while downstream businesses 

However, because of weaker 
financial income, it reiterated 
its earlier forecast that net 
income would only be at about 
last year's SFrl.7bn. 

In the third quarter, group 
sales were up 5.4 per cent at 
SFx3.67bn, with all of the 
increase coming from the 
inclusion of SFtlSOm from Ger- 
ber since August 25. 

Mr Raymund Bren, finance 
director, said the cost of the 
Gerber acquisition would not 
dilute earnings either this year 
or in 1995. 

The nutrition division, into 
which Gerber has been inte- 
grated, saw its third-quarter 
sales soar 68 per cent to 

cent to R235.Gm from R204^m. 
while financing costs dropped 
slightly . to R27.5m from 

All the group's divisions per- 
formed well, with flagship 
Edgars contributing the bulk 
of sales. These improved 15 per 
cent, to Rl-27bn from the 
Rl.lbn reported last year. 

Jet, which is targeted at the 
lower end of toe market, had a 
very good half, raising sales by 
30 per cent to R23&3m from 

Sales House, the group’s 
other leading division, raised 

$i63m (all figures are before 
one-off items). 

Although operating earnings 
rebounded from the second 
quarter, benefi tin g from hi gher 
refined product margins in the 
US and the ahsanre of refinery 
operating problems, overall 
profit margins fell short of the 
strong 1993 third quarter, said 
Mr Ken Derr, chairman and 
chief executive. 

One bright spot was provided 
by Chevron’s chemical busi- 
ness, which reported earnings 
of $68m, up from 86m a year 
ago. Net Income overall was 
$425m, or 65 cents a share, 
compared with 8420m, or 64 
cents a share, in the 1993 

SEYHSm. Mr Breu said if Ger- 
ber and two large acquisitions 
from last year were excluded, 
the division was still growing 
at about a 6 per cent rate. 

The pharmaceuticals divi- 
sion suffered a 2.7 per cent 
drop in sale* in the third quar- 
ter to SFrL79hn. But Mr Breu 
said the underlying trend was 
up 3 per cent in local curren- 
cies, slightly ahead of toe 
industry average. 

Sales in the agrochemicals 
division dropped 5 per cent in 
the third quarter to SFrl75m 
but in the ninft months this 
has been toe group’s fastest 
growing division, with sales up 
10 per cent in local currencies. 

sales 12 per cent to R38SJ3m 
from R3425m. 

The group attributed the 
good results to the improved 
economic climate after the 
elections in April, and pre- 
dicted that sales and profits for 
the ton year would be broadly 
in line with the interim 

The interim dividend was 
raised 24 per cant to 56 cents, 
but the group announced that 
this would be made in the form 
of a capitalisation share award 
unless shareholders requested 

MAN truck 
unit in red 
but sees 
profit ahead 

By Kevin Dona, 

Motor industry Correspondent 

MAN Nutzfahrseuge, the 
German truck maker, suffered 
a pre-tax loss of DH80m 
(853.44m) in the year to the 
end of June, but the company 
forecast yesterday that it 
would return to profit in the 
current year. 

Its profitability has declined 
during the past three years, 
with last year’s loss following 
pre-tax profits of DM6lm 
in 1992-93 and DM506m in 

The group, the second larg- 
est German truck maker after 
Mercedes-Benz, has been hit 
by recession in the European 
truck market It feD to a net 
loss in 1993-94 of DM97m from 
net profits of DH32m a year 

However, the company has 
restructured and Mr Rudolf 
Rupprecht, chief executive, 
said yesterday that the group 
had been operating profitably 
in recent months. 

Mr Rupprecht said that 
truck prices had dropped dra- 
matically last year, cutting 
earnings by DM30 Om, while 
the drop in sales volumes 
cut profits by a further 

MAN Nnfzfahreeuge, a sub- 
sidiary of MAN, the German 
engineering group, had 
reduced its overhead costs by 
DMlOOm last year, said Mr 

Production fell by 10 per 
cent to 32£00 - it has fallen 
by 22 per cent from 41,600 in 
1991-92 - while group turn- 
over fell by 5 per cent to 

MAN truck sales in west 
Europe declined by 15 per cent 
last year to 26,000 from 31.200 
a year earlier reducing the 
group’s market share from 
14-8 to ISA per emit 

MAN is planning to re-estab- 
lish the production of trucks 
and buses in Turkey following 
the faflnre of an earlier ven- 
ture. It is investing DM20m to 
ac quire a 33 per cent equity 
stake and take management 
control of Manas, a company 
in which Xsbank, the Tnrldsh 
bank is the majority share- 

By Dandsn Fraser 

in MwkJco CHy 

The stock price of Telfifonos de 
M&rico (Telmex). the country’s 
telephone monopoly and larg- 
est private company, fell 
sharply yesterday morning 
after it reported worse-than-ex- 
pected net profits of 7.l4bn 
pesos ($2.09bn) in the first nine 
months of the year, an inmmasp 
of just L5 per cent compared 
with the same period in 1993. 
Third-quarter profits rose by 
5*> per cent to 2-6bu pesos. 

Telmex “L" shares were 
down 6A per emit In late mean- 
ing trading. The poor results. 

By Bernard Simon fai Toronto 

Cominco, the Vancouver-based 
metals producer, staged a 
strong tumround in thp third 
quarter as zinc, lead and cop- 
per prices rose. 

Recent performance has also 
been marked by "highly 
encouraging" exploration 
results in northern Canada, 
Turkey and Chile, which could 
shift the pmphagte of Comin- 
co’s operations from lead and 
zinc towards copper and 

By tan Rodger 

Credit Suisse, the flagship 
hunk of the CS Holding finan- 
cial services group, said its pre- 
tax profits in the third quarter 
were hurt by unfavourable 
financial marke t conditions 
and “did not match the 
extremely good results" in the 
same period of last year. 

No figures were given, but 

the comments in a sta tement 
indicated a continuation of the 
trend experienced in the first 
half, when the bank’s consoli- 
dated profits before taxes and 
provisions were down 27 per 
cent to SFrL76bn. 

Moreover, there was a signif- 
icant worsening of the bank's 

along with others reported by 
Mexican companies, led to a 4.1 
per rent fan in the Mexican 
stock market at midslay. 

The company's profits were 
dragged down by a 29.2 per 
cent rise in operating costs 
OVer the niTiP months , mainl y 
accounted for by the increased 
cost of maintenance and the 
investment in substituting 
analogue lines with digital 
ones. The rise in costs caused 
the operating margin to fall to 
4L7 per cent 

Financial costs were also up 
sharply, largely due to toe 
depreciation of nearly 10 per 
cent of the peso against the US 

reached C$l6.7m (US$12.35m), 
or 20 cents a share, compared 
with a C$70 -2m loss, or 89 
cents, a year earlier. Revenues 
climbed to C$294. 5m from 

Lead, zinc and copper prices 
on tfre T^wHnn Metal Exchange 
were respectively 8 per cent, 53 
per cent and 28 per cent higher 
during the third quarter than a 
year previously. 

Earnings were also boosted 
by higher production, includ- 
ing a 71 per cent jump in zinc 
concentrate output at the Red 
Dog mine in Alaska. Total 

commissions business due to 
sluggish securities turnover. 
At the halfway stage, commis- 
sion income was up 10 per 
cent, but in toe third quarter 
there was a "slight downturn". 

Net interest income was hurt 
by narrower margins, espe- 
cially in Switzerland, while 
trading income was "lower 
than expected”. Credit Suisse 
Financial Products, the deriva- 
tives subsidiary, maintained its 
earnings at last year’s 
“healthy” level 

Loan loss provisions were 
lower, but remained "relatively 

At September 30, total assets 
stood at SFr23L9bn, SFr317m 
less than at the end of 1993. 

dollar, which led to a reported 
exchange loss of 978m pesos. 
Overall the company posted a 
financial loss of 58&5m pesos 
in the first nine months of the 

Revenues reached 21.37bn 
pesos in the first nine month* 
of the year, an 119 per cent 
rise. The increase was attri- 
buted to the 12.4 per cent 
growth of lines in service and 
an increase in volume of 
long-distance and local tele- 
phone traffic. 

Telmex’s cellular subsidiary 
reported another strong quar- 
ter, with the number of users 
increasing 31.9 per cent. 

shipments of refined zinc rose 
by a fifth. 

The most encouraging explo- 
ration prospect is a wholly 
owned polymetallic deposit in 

south-east Yukon. 

Cominco Resources Interna- 
tional, its 56 per cent owned 
subsidiary, has announced 
“promising" results from a 
low-grade gold deposit in Tur- 
key. and the discovery of two 
“significant" copper-bearing 
ore bodies in Chile. 

Third-quarter exploration 
expenses were CS5.5m higher 
than last year. 

income climbs 
at US Steel 

US Steel, the country's biggest 
steelmaker, reported a 40 per 
cent jump in undertying oper- 
ating income in the third quar- 
ter as higher steel prices con- 
tributed to its continuing 
tumround, writes Richard 

The company, part of the 
USX group, said operating 
income (before a 813m gain 
from the sale of a coal seam) 
rose to 893m. 

This represented $36 for each 
of toe 2.6m tons produced, 
compared with $27 a ton on 
production of 2h tons the year 

Overall, US Steel’s net 
income jumped $57m, to 890m. 

Mixed quarter at US energy groups 

recorded a fen from $243m to 

Sandoz sales growth held to 3% 
by strength of Swiss currency 

Edgars earnings advance 25% 

Cominco returns to the black 

Third-quarter earnings 

Credit Suisse says profits 
were lower in third period 

tit ms 

: ••• - -f- .• .. i 

Where Hollywood has Oscars, 
the banking world has Triple-A ratings. 

With Us triple Triple-A rating, L-Biuik ranks among the highest-rated 
issuing banks on the international scene. 

Banks are like movie theaters, they 
like to project o glossy image. But 
while a movie rating doesn't say much 
about a film, a credit rating is a key 
benchmark for the credit standing of a 
bank. The rating agencies base their 
assessments on different criteria but 
the top rating is always the same: 
TripIc-A.The only thing better than 
AAA is— two or three Triple-A s- 

To its credit, L-Bank has three. Like 
Oscars, they are awarded for perform- 
ance but in L-Bank's case, innovative 
issues backed by top-notch credit 
quality played a major supporting role. 
The force behind L-Bank’s credit 
is the German federal state of Baden- 
WOrliemberg. sole owner ofL-BanL 
But as any Oscar winner will tell you: 
even with the best supporting cast. 

you still have to play your pan to 
perfection - which is the target we 
set ourselves each and every day. 
L-Bank, Schlossplatz 10/12, 
D-76113 Karlsruhe, Germany. 
Telephone 1NT 721/150-0. 


Landeskrecfitbank BadervWQrttemberg 

This announcement appears as a matter of record only 


Project Financing 

Sponsored by 

International Paper Company 
International Paper - Kwidzyn S.A. 

Kwidzyn, Poland 

European Bank for Reconstruction and Development Loan 
International Finance Corporation Loon 
Overseas Private In vestment Corporation I xmn 
Syndicated Bank Loan 


J.P. Morgan Securities Ltd. 


European Bank for Reconstruction and Development International Finance Corporation 

Lead Managers 

Morgan Guaranty Trust Company of New York 
The Chase Manhattan Bank, N.A. 

Deutsche Bonk AG 



Banque Nntionulc de Paris 
Credit Lyonnais 
Wcstdeutschc Landesbank Girozcntralc 

Credit Suisse 

BBL Ireland 


Citibank. N.A. 

MHB Mitteleuropoische Hondelsbank AC 

Societe Genende 




Krrdieihank N.V. 
Rabobank Nederland 


August 1994 

financial times 


.. * . A 


Matsushita rises 26% at halfway 

By Mlchiyo Nakamoto 
In Tokyo 

Matsushita, the Japanese 
consumer electronics maker, 
reported a 26 per cent rise in 
Don-consolidated recurring 
profits In the six months to 
September and said that full- 
year results would be better 
than it had expected. 

Recurring profits, before 
extraordinary items and tax. 
increased to Y37.4bn ($385m) 
from Y29.7bn a year ago, 
helped by strong sales of air 
conditioners during an unusu- 
ally hot Japanese summer and 
buoyant demand in overseas 

The dividend is held at Y6.25. 

The profits rise came on 
higher sales of Y2.204bn. 

against Y2.i48bn last time, 
which the company achieved 
in spite of the sharp rise in the 
yen and sluggish economic 
activity in Japan. 

Operating profits nearly dou- 
bled to Y23bn, compared with 
Yll.7bn previously. 

Sales For the full year to next 
March are expected to rise 2 
per cent to Y4,42Qbn instead of 
Y-i&Obn. Recurring profits are 
forecast to reach YSSbn, up 33 
per cent and net profits are 
expected to be Y50bn, or 16 per 
cent up. 

However, this compares with 
recurring profits or Y276bn in 
fiscal 1990. 

Most of the company's main 
product divisions showed a 
slight increase in sales in the 
latest period, with home con- 

sumer products - such as air 
conditioners, washing 
machines and refrigerators - 
recording the biggest rise of 19 
per cent. 

The information equipment 
division also saw stronger 
demand particularly for cellu- 
lar phones, home facsimile 
marfifafts and CD-Rom drives. 

However, Matsushita's tradi- 
tional audio-visual businesses 
continued to suffer a big fall in 
sales as consumers turned to 
cheaper televisions, videos and 
audio systems, many of which 
are made overseas. 

The group was particularly 
hurt by sharp declines in 
audio-visual equipment prices. 
Matsushita said. Prices of some 
products had fallen about 15 
per cent in the video market 

and 20 per cent in the audio 

Video sales were down 14 per 
cent and sales of colour televi- 
sions were flat. In spite of the 
popularity of wide-screen tele- 
visions. Audio equipment sales 
fell 4 per cent, 

Matsushita continued to suf- 
fer the adverse impact of the 
yen's appreciation against the 
US dollar, which trimmed 
Y12bn off profits. 

As a result of the yen's 
appreciation, cost savings of 
Yl2bn in the audio- visual 
divisions were more or less 
wiped out, the company 

Overall, however, Matsushita 
was able to make cost savings 
of YSSbn through rationalisa- 
tion efforts. 

Indian court 
clears way 
for Lever 
merger plan 

By SWra* Sidhva 
in New Delhi 

The Indian Supreme Court has 
cleared the way for Hindustan 
Lever, the Indian affiliate of 
Unilever, the Anglo-Dutch 
combine, to acquire Tata Oil 
Mills Company (Tomco). a 
soaps and detergents 
manufacturer which is part of 
Tata, India's largest Industrial 

The court rejected five 
petitions asking for special 
leave to challenge the merger. 

The main petitioner, 
Hindustan Lever Employees' 
Union, had taken the case to 
the Supreme Court after (he 
Bombay High Court dismissed 
its plea to block the merger In 

Employees' unions of both 
companies challenged the 
merger, after workers feared 
they would lose their jobs. 
They claimed the acquisition 
would allow Hindustan Lever 
to control 90 per cent of the 
Indian soaps and detergents 

Hindustan Lever argued the 
combined output would 
account for only one-third of 
the 3m-tonnes-a~year Indian 
soaps and detergents market 
Hindustan Lever's output is 
currently some 700,000 tonnes 
a year, while Tomco's is 
approximately 200,000 

Another objection concerned 
Hindustan Lever’s proposal to 
sell shares to Unilever at a 
“massive discount” in order to 
let the parent company retain 
a majority holding in the 
Indian unit 

The two companies had 
agreed an exchange ratio 
of shares of the merging 
companies, 15 Tomco shares 
for two of Hindustan Lever. 

Hindustan Lever shares 
yesterday advanced Rsl2.50 on 
the news to close in Bombay at 
RsfiSO. while Tomco advanced 
Rs5 to finish at 

Kubota refocuses computer side 

By Mlchiyo Nakamoto 

Kubota is to restructure its 
computer-related business by 
largely withdrawing from 
hardware and putting more 
emphasis on software. 

The Japanese parent com- 
pany will dissolve Kubota 
Graphics, its subsidiary in Cal- 
ifornia which has developed 
hardware, at the end of the 
year. This will result in a spe- 
cial loss or Y15bn ($i55m), but 
will not affect Kubota's fore- 
cast of parent net profit of 
Yl9bn for the year to March 31 
1995, the company said. 

Kubota. Japan's leading 
manufacturer of farm 

equipment and iron pipes, 
diversified into the computer 
industry in 1986. 

Yesterday, it announced a 13 
per cent increase in mid-term 
parent recurring profits - 
before extraordinary items and 
tax - to Y14.lbn from Yl2.4bn 
in the corresponding period 
last year. 

Kubota's decision to pull out 
of workstation development 
and manufacture ends its 
eight- year struggle in an indus- 
try characterised by increas- 
ingly fierce competition. 

Rnbota has been selling 
three-dimensional computer 
graphics workstations it has 
developed, but only about 3,300 

units have been sold in the 
past eight years. 

The company diversified into 
three-dimensional graphics 
workstations at a time when it 
was still a niche market, but 
competition has since intensi- 
fied with the spread of open 

Kubota has been pursuing a 
restructuring effort since the 
new president took office last 
year with a particular empha- 
sis on p ulling out of loss- 
making businesses. 

In mainline business, Kubota 
saw a better-tban expected rise 
in profits on sales up 4 per cent 
at Y340.6bn, compared with a 
previous Y326.7bn. 

Hino Motors recovers sharply 

By wnjiam Dawkins 

Hino Motors, Japan's largest 
truck maker, yesterday 
announced a sharp profits 
recovery for the first half of 
the year and forecast more 
than doubled earnings for the 
full 12 months. 

It reported a 39.1 per cent 
rise in recurring profit - before 
extraordinary items and tax - 
to Y2.79bn ($29m) in the six 
months to September. 

Tim group, 11 per cent owned 
by Toyota, attributed the 
improvement to an increase in 

demand from civil engineering 
companies, carrying out the 
public works funded by the 
Japanese government's eco- 
nomic measures. 

Tougher rules against over- 
loading also added to demand 
for new trucks. 

Hino expects the profits 
improvement to accelerate in 
the current six months, this 
time helped by the steady 
recovery of the domestic econ- 
omy, so that 1994 will mark the 
end of a three-year profits 

Interim turnover rose by 9J 

per cent to Y302bn, within 
which unit sales to the domes- 
tic market climbed by 20.2 per 
cent to 69,820 vehicles. 

This more than made up for 
a 14.6 per cent decline in 
exports to 15,560 units, a mark 
of the damage inflicted by the 
yen's strength on Hino's over- 
seas price competitiveness. 

Hino’s net profits rose by 
58.7 per cent to Yl.62bn, worth 
Y4.48 a share, up from earn- 
ings of Y2.82 a share in the 
first six months of last year. 
Hino will pay an unchanged 
dividend of Y3 a share. 

sell-off flop 
prompts rail 
sale review 

By William Dawkins 
In Tokyo 

Japan's latest privatisation 
flop yesterday forced the 
government to review plans 
for the flotation next February 
of a state-controlled regional 

Mr Shiznka Kamel, 
transport minister, said he 
would decide next month 
whether to proceed with the 
privatisation of West Japan 
Railway (JR West), one of the 
six rail groups that were 
created by the 1987 break-up 


of Japanese 

He said the derisive factor 
would be the price 
performance of Japan Tobacco, 
the cigarette making 
monopoly, whose listing 
tomorrow has been marred by 
the fact that many private 
investors decided not to take 
up their rights to buy shares. 

The finance ministry 
managed to sell just under 60 
per cent of the shares in Japan 
Tobacco, after private 
investors baulked at the offer 
price of Y 1.438m a share, 
which was set through a 
pre-offer auction to 
Institutions and rich 
individuals. It now plans to 
sell the unwanted shares in 
the new fiscal year, though Mr 
Kamel said yesterday that he 
still hopes to float JR West in 
the current fiscal year, ending 
in March. 

The Japan Tobacco flop has 
attracted widespread criticism 
of the method of pricing 
new Issues via an auction to 
the richest minority of 

This has prompted Mr 
Masayoshi Takemura. the 
finance minister, to launch a 
review of the method of 
pricing flotations. 

• New Oji Paper, Japan’s 
largest paper and pulp 
manufacturer, yesterday said 
parent recurring profits for 
the six months to September 
30 rose 32 per cent to Y6.58bn 
($68m) from Y5bn in the 
corresponding period last 
year. Sales were 25 per cent 
higher at Y27Q.34hn. 

NBHP takes 14% stake in Dominion 

By Nikki Tart 

North Broken mil Peko, the Australian 
mining and equipment group which has 
been debt-free since selling its paper man- 
ufacturing and merchanting operations 
last year, yesterday announced that it had 
acquired a 14.9 per cent interest in Domin- 
ion Mining, a smaller Western Australian 

The stake was purchased in two parts. A 
495 per cent holding was built up through 
market purchases “over recent weeks”. A 
larger, 9.9 per cent interest was then 
bought from Gold Mines of Australia, a 
sm all mining company which earlier this 
year launched a bid for Dominion. 

North said that it had acquired the lat- 

ter stake at GMA's entry cost of A$19.4m 
(*14J2m). or about 45 cents per Dominion 

GMA decided not to press ahead with its 
Agl82m bid for Dominion last July, after 
the target company granted NBHP an 
option to take an 80 per cent interest in 
Dominion’s A$500m Yakabindie nickel 
project in Western Australia - a deal 
which saw Dominion's share price rise sig- 

GMA's bid had been seen as an opportu- 
nistic move, which aimed to capitahse on 
Dcaninion’s recent management upheavals 
and disappointing operational and stock 
market performance. 

Since then, NBHP and Dominion have 
also announced that they intend to team 

up for an interest in the Vasslkovskoye 
gold project in Kazakhstan. 

If a joint venture agreement is reached 
with the Kazakhstan authorities, Domin- 
ion would retain a minority position, and 
North would manage the interests of both 

However, NBHP yesterday played down 
suggestions that a full hid for Dominion 
was imminent. 

It said that the purchase “reflects the 
commonality of interests” between the two 
companies and was also designed to 
remove instability from Dominion's share 

Dominion shares closed 2 cents higher 
at 42 cents on the Australian stock 
exchanges yesterday. 


Apaxs, SA de CV. 

U5S1 00,000,000 10/. per cert. Guaranteed 
Note due 1 996 *Not»1 

NOTICE tS HEREBY QV£N to the holders of ihe Notes lhat, pursuant to 
Condition 7JbJ of the terms end cone&ians (the Terms and CondtionS") of 

and expressions which are ctetmed m the terms anti 
Notes snoO hove the same meanings when used herein. 

Payment of the redemption price will be mode, in the case of the Bearer 
Notes, ogoimt presentation ond stemnder of Are Bereer Note together with 
dB unmahired Coupons appertaining thereto at the specified office of any 
Haying Agent outside the United Stoles listed below ond, in the cose of 
Registered Notes, against presentation and surrender of die Registered 
Note Certfccote at fte specified office of c my Paying Agent listed below to 
the person shown in lie Register os the holder of suai Note. 

If a Bearer Note is presented for redemption without all unrnotured 
Coupons appertaining thereto, the face value of each missing unmatured 
Coupon will be deducted ran rise redemption price. The amount so 
de d ucted wiO be paid, against presentation ond surrender of the relevant 
missing Coiponji), in accordance Condition 6(g) of the Notes. 

In oceordan« with Condition 1 1 of the Notes, claims for payment of 
principal (other than principal withheld in respect of missing unmatured 
Coupons in which event Condition 6(g) shall apply] and interest shall 
became void upon he expin' of ten yrors did five yoors respectively from 
the Relevant Date as defined in Condition 8 of the Notes. 


which are defined in the Terms and Conditions of the 

Citibank, N A, London office 
336 Strand 




1 6 Avenue Morie-T 
1-21 32 Luxembourg 

Hanwha Chemical Corporation 

(tiKoipuuEcd in rti« Republic ufh'unrJ with timurJ tiahlirv) 


to the holders of the outstanding 

U.S. $56,000,000 

3% per cent. Convertible Bonds due 2006 

trhr “BondO 


Han Yang Chemical Corporation 

Whe "Oni/Mny'V 

NOTICE IS HEREBY GIVEN to the holders ot the Bonds ihat.ihe Name 
of the Company was chanced nri the date of 1st October. L994 to Hanwha 
Chemical Corporation by the resolutions of the Boanl of Directors of the 
Company dated on 4th February. 1994- 

Thereafter, all the liabilities and ngha ru the hidden of the Bonds have 
been continued by the Name of Hanwha Chemical Corporation effective 
from 1st October, 1W4. 

October, 1994 

Hanwha Chemical Corporation 



iGteM te tw — wte t Mte e 

KH MaratM IMM 4J5* 

mate Bttrtc HsMUts Uteted US* 

— i a nno 

Sbtfl Is* tela* tenth Was Id fur 
Hottq Rats sm» na 


NOTICE i* hereby ■frentbal.cRec- 
tire o, of November 5. 1994. MORGAN 
NEW YORK nUraipialMbferki 
U-S. corpc H Me crust huetioDs u. and 

■rill be succeeded as New York agent by, 
Street. Suite 1600, New tori. New Yoct 
I DOW on aQ of the above rocs except 
fer the Scare Bank of New Sooth Wales 
10 Year Extendible Floating Roe Nous 
rSnue BartTi and U m d eiwu Capital 
Intenutknul Limited MaodatorUy Coo- 
«ertbte Ouaraiured Bo 

Capital”). Tbe effective date rftbc bach 

fat the State Bank issue will be Novem- 
ber 20. 1994 and for Hendemi Capital 
will bo Jammy 1,1993 

USD 372.000.000 
For the period 
October 25, 1994 to 
April 25, 1995 the 
new rate has been 
fixed at 6,4875% PA 
Next payment date : 
April 25, 1995 
Coupon nr; 14 
Amount : 

USD 32797,92 for the 
denomination of 
USD 1 000 000 


15, Avenue Emile Reuter 

N.V. De Indonesische 

Floating Rate Notes 1997 

The notes will bear interest at 
6.30% per annum for the 
period 26 October 1994 to 
26 January 1995. Interest 
payable 26 January 1995 iaU 
amount to USSI, 610. 00 per 
USS 100,000 note. 

Agent: Morgan Guaranty 
Trust Company 


U.S. 575,000,000 

(Sparbankemas Bank) 
Subordinated Floating Rate 
Notes due 1997 

Nones Is herob* gmn But to, me 
Dm nudn hwrmt Pored bum 
□crater rs. IBM D January SB. IBBS 
ttw Nona wfl) cany an I meres Rata 
o* &S75% pa> annum. Yha Interest Day- 
«bto on tfn wtea a rn awarast payment 
data. January ZB. T99S «ai ba U.S. 

*3.733.47 KM US. 5150.14 rispoc- 
i at U.S. 

US d 5wSSo°Tre sura of 
U8. 5150. u mV ba payflUt per OS. 
SiO.OQO principal amount el Rag la tared 

BpItaCkMHtettasiiBteUU. A 
Lmta,lgatihnt Q 

October 2S.1B9J CHASE 






Guaranteed Floating 
Rate Nodes Dae 1996 

Notice h hereby given that the 
rate of interest for the period 
24th Onotoer 1994 to 23nJ Janu- 
ary 1W has been fixed at S JL 
percent. Interest trill amount to 
US SHQ.6I per US S1O.M0 Note. 
US SI.4iK.0S per US 5100,000 
Note and US SL4.060.76 per US 
SUM0.000 Note, and wiU be 
payable on 23 rd January 1995 
against Coupon No; 3. 

Hamh ing Bank Limited 
. Agent Bank 


SocKie Anonynte - Luxembourg 

As ot October 15. 1994. the 
unoanaoftfcifld net asset value 
was USD 365.548$ 1 5^9, L«. 
U9D 640*5 per share of USO 200 
par value. 

Tha consolidated not asset value 
per share amounted as ot 
October 15. 1994 to USD &B&23. 

C 130- software applications C 
Call London 44 * (0> 71 221 3b; 
tor your guide end price list 


In accordance wish the 
inte rew p eriod tom 2A 

at &687BH per uuum. 

1964 no 24 April lfidfi the Nona cany an httereet me 

coupon no 4 wfil be US$287.63 per 
100,000 note. 

.. date, 24. 
.0,000 mu and 


HK Futures Exch; 
contracts on two stocks 

By Louise Lucas 
in Hong Kong 

The Futures Exchange of Hong 
Kong yesterday announced 
plans to introduce futures con- 
tracts on two of the colony’s 
biggest stocks, HSBC Holdings 
and H on g Kong Telecommuni- 

Hie announcement sparked 
an immediate confrontation 
with the stock exchange, 
which had only been informed 
of the Launch the previous day. 

The Securities and Futures 
Commission (SFC), the colo- 
ny's watchdog, approved the 
product and further agreed to 
honour the fixtures exchange’s 
request for confidentiality “in 
view of the overriding public 
interest for ensuring that Hong 
Kong remains the primary 
market for trading Hong Kong- 
related financial products." 
This meant there was no pub- 
lic consultation. 

However, the SFC conceded 
that as well as competing with 
markets around the world, the 
two Hong Kong exchanges are 

in competition with each other. 

The stock exchange, which 
itself plans to introduce traded 
options on equities in the sec- 
ond half of next year, attacked 
the decision to do away with 
market consultation, especially 
given the worldwide perception 
that equities futures are high 
risk products. 

A spokesman for the stocK 
exchange said: “We had the 
experience in 1987 on futures 
products and the introduction 
of such a product [equity 
futures] would possibly 
increase volatility on the 
underlying stock, so we think 
the market should have been 

Hong Kong has spent much 
of the post-1987 years rebuild- 
ing its international repute fol- 
lowing the crash, which was 
exacerbated by a run on Hang 
Seng Index futures in the 
run-up to October and which 
saw brokers default to the tune 
of HK*X.8bn (US$233m), com- 
pared with a guarantee fund of 

Mr Ivers Riley, chief execu- 

tive of the futures exchange, 
clayed down risk management 
fears and said the instruments 
could decrease volatility 
because of their rule hedg- 
ing He also dismissed con- 
cerns that followed the launch 
of similar products in Sydney, 
saying the row there was 
essentially one over the regular 
tory scheme and who could 
launch the products. 

"Risk management systems 

here are light years array from 
1987; even so. there will be spe- 
cial provisions such as limiting 
the size of the position and 
position reporting." 

There will also be margin 
requirements, although these 
have not yet been set. Trading 
in the two new futures is 
expected to start before the 
year end. 

The stock exchange is not 
convinced. “If you trade an 
option the liability- Is limited 
by the option price; the futures 
liability would be the value of 
the futures contract, which 
would be unlimited, " an offi- 
cial said. 

Placer Pacific slips to 
A$63m at nine months 

By Nikki Tail hi Sydney 

Placer Pacific, the Australian 
listed ra bring - company which 
is controlled by Canada’s 
Placer Dome, yesterday 
reported nine-month profits of 
AS63.?m (US$46. 6m) after tax. 
down from A$72Jim in the cor- 
responding period of 1993. Net 
profits in the third quarter 
alone were A$22.4m this year. 

The lower nine-month result, 
however, was due to the 
absence of last time's abnor- 
mal tax adjustment At the pre- 
tax level and before outside 
equity interests, Placer Pacific 
marie a profit of AS 1 12.9m in 
the nine months to end- 
Sept ember, up from A$76^m in 
the previous year. 

Placer, which has interests 
in Granny Smith, and Kidston 
goldmines in Australia and in 
Qie MSsima and Porgera gold- 
mines in Papua New Guinea, 
said the improvement was 

largely due to lower operating 
costs and depreciation charges. 
Its equity share of gold produc- 
tion during the nine months 
was 576,564 oz, down from 
616,886 oz in the first nine 
months of 1993. The average 
cash production cost for the 
period was $262 per oz. 

Placer, which manages the 
large Porgera mine, added that 
total production there was 
742,083 oz during the nine 
months, down from 865,995 oz 
in the previous year. This was 
below expections, and full year 
production estimates have 
been revised to lm oz. The pro- 
duction figure was dented by 
lower than anticipated ore pro- 
duction from the East Zone 
slopes, and the fatal explosion 
at the mine in August 

However, Placer said that 
development of the West Zones 
was now getting priority, to 
supplement mining production 
in the current quarter. 

Better supply 
helps Napocor 
climb strongly 

By Jose Galang In Manila 

Greater reliability of supply led 
to higher sales and a 567 per 
cent rise in net profits for the 
Philippines' state-run National 
Power Corporation (Napocor) 
in the first nine months of this 

Last year the country was 
plagued by regular power cuts 
of up to 12 hours a day. But 
since then there have been far 
fewer breakdowns as the com- 
pany has achieved reliability of 
supply and much improved 
power generation. 

Yesterday, the company 
reported net profits of 5J23bn 
pesos (US$207m) for the nine 
months. Revenues were up 31 
per cent to 37.8bn pesos. 

Napocor, which still owns 
most of the country’s power 
plant capacity, reported an 
increase of 18 per cent in oper- 
ating expenses to 28.6bn pesos. 

compensation Scheme for Holders of 
Banco Latino H.V. (“BLNV”) 

Euro Certificates of Deposit (“EuroCDs”) 

On August 19. 1994 BLNV has sold some of Its assets to Banco Provincial 
International N.V. (“BPI"), a credit institution established and licensed in the 
Netherlands Antilles. 

According to the calculations based on the value of the assets sold to BPI, balances 
receivable from Banco Latino S.A.C.A. ("BLCA") and the securities held by BLNV, the 
institution expects to pay out to its creditors 75% of their daims on the institution. 

The compensation of the daims to depositors and other creditors indudlng holders of 
EuroCDs, of BLNV will consist of three parts and will take place as follows: 




Certificates of Deposit will be issued by BPI to all creditors amounting to a com- 
pensation ratio of approximately 40% of the original claim. The Certificates of 
Deposit will be Issued to holders of EuroCDs in the following manners: 

Claims will be compensated by means of five (5) Certificates of Deposit in 
Bolivars, representing In the aggregate 20% of the original claim, and one (1) 
Certificate of Deposit in USS, also representing 20% of the original claim. This 
US$ certificate will mature In twenty-four (24) months and the Bolivar certifi- 
cates will mature in a period of two (2) to twenty-four (24) months. 

A special purpose investment fund, named The Venezuela Recovery Fund 
N.V,", will issue share certificates in USS to ail creditors of BLNV representing a 
compensation ratio of approximately 28% of the original claim. 

Upon receipt of the amounts owed by BLCA to BLNV, BPI will issue additional 
Certificates of Deposit to the depositors and other creditors of BLNV represent- 
ing approximately 7% of the original claim of the creditors. 

Re 1) Certificates of Deposit issued by BPI. 

Holders of EuroCertfficates of Deposit (“EuroCDs") and commercial papers guaran- 
teed by BLNV, should present their daims on or after October 18, 1994 at the office of 
BLNV In the manner described below. While some of the holders of record may be 
acting as agents and custodians for beneficial owners, BLNV will only transact with 
the holders of record as provided by Euroclear and CEDEL. The following proce- 
dures apply for holders of records: 

(a) Holders of record should authorize Euroclear and/or CEDEL to release to 
BLNV the holder's Information regarding their BLNV EuroCDs, induding the 
nominal amount(s), ISIN of each BLNV EuroCD, contact name, telephone and 
fax numbers. The deadline for this authorization shall be filed no later than 
November 18, 1994. 




Holders of record should also authorize Eurodear and/or CEDEL to transfer 
their respective EuroCDs, free of payment, to BLNVs account number 54810 
at CEDEL. These EuroCDs will be blocked in such account until CEDEL has 
received a copy of a duly signed release (a copy of the release can be obtained 
in advance from BLNV, Euroclear or CEDEL). 

Euroclear and CEDEL will provide and advise BLNV of each holder's informa- 
tion and transfer of the EuroCDs as specified in (a) and (b) above. 

BLNV will contact each holder individually and make arrangements for the 
issuance of the new BP! CDs. Holders can request the following: 

(i) to appoint an attomey-in-fact to handle the exchange on their behalf, and 

(ii) that the BPI CDs be issued in the name of their beneficial owners. 

On a mutually agreed upon date, holders will be able to sign the release and collect 
the BPI CDs at BLNV and BPI offices in Curagao. 

Re 2 ) Share Certificates to be Issued by the Venezuela Recovery Fund. 

BPI will act as Paying Agent for the Fund and Banco Provincial S.A.C.A. as Custodian 
for the securities maintained In subject Fund. These securities concern negotiable 
long term USS denominated instruments. 

During the month of October 1994. BLNV will issue a separate communication In 
which the creditors will be Informed of the dates when the Certificates of the Fund will 
be issued to them. 

Re 3) Certificates of Deposit to be issued after receipt of the amounts owed by 

Presently discussions are going on With BLCA to determine the manner in which pay* 
mant to BLNV will be done by BLCA. BLNV expects to finalize these discussions 
soon, so that all creditors can be compensated as soon as possible. When the dis- 
cussions with BLCA are finalized, BLNV will announce to its creditors how and when 
they may expect their final compensation. 

The following is the address of Banco Latino N.V. and Banco Provincial International 

De Ruyterkade 61 
Willemstad, Curasao 
Willemstad, October 28, 1994 
Banco Latino N.V. 

t > FI 

5 . .M* 

j V M 

Salk** 1 

* ij f 


- M i 

• ’*! ? «S 


i >=- 



New Issue 

All of these securities having been sold, this announcement appears as a matter of record only. 



Common Stock 

The New York Stock Exchange symbol is I IT 

Global Coordinators: 

Merrill Lynch & Co. 

P.T. (Persero) Danareksa 

6,471,876 American Depositary Shares 
Representing 64,718,760 Shares of Common Stock 

The above shares were underwritten outside the United States, Canada, Asia (including Indonesia), Australia and New Zealand by the following group of International Underwriters. 

Merrill Lynch International limited 

CS First Boston 
Lazard Freres et Cle 

Deutsche Bank 


Dresdner Bank 


Barclays de Zoete Wedd Limited 

Kleinwort Benson Securities 

P.T. Danareksa Sekuritas 

Goldman Sachs International 
N M Rothschild and Smith New Court 

Cazenove & Co. Credit Lyonnais Securities 

Paribas Capital Markets UBS Limited 

12,943,750 American Depositary Shares 
Representing 129,437,500 Shares of Common Stock 

The above shares were underwritten in the United States and Canada by the following group of U.S. Underwriters. 

Merrill Lynch & Co. 

Goldman, Sachs & Co. 

Lehman Brothers 

J.E Morgan Securities Inc. 
Salomon Brothers Inc 

Bear, Stearns & Co. Inc. 

Donaldson, Lufkin & Jenrette 

Securities CoipomUoa 

Amhold and S. Bleichroeder, Inc. 

Janney Montgomery Scott Inc. 

Raymond James & Associates, Inc. 

Alex. B rown & Sons 


Lazard Freres & Co. 

Robert W. Baird & Co. 


Edward D. Jones & Co. 

CS First Boston 
PaineWebber Incorporated 

J. G. Bradford & Co. 
C. J. Lawrence/Deutsche Bank 

Securities Corporation 

The Robinson-Humphrey Company, Inc. 

Morgan Stanley & Co. 


Smith Barney Inc. 

Dean Witter Reynolds Inc. 
Prudential Securities Incorporated 
Cowen & Company 
Legg Mason Wood Walker 


Wheat First Butcher Singer 

6,471,874 American Depositary Shares 
Representing 64,718,740 Shares of Common Stock 

The above shares were underwritten in Asia (excluding Indonesia), Australia and New Zealand by the following group of Asian Underwriters. 

Merrill Lynch International Limited 

P.T. Danareksa Sekuritas 

S.G.Warburg Securities 

Baring Brothers & Co., Limited Jardine Fleming Yamaichi Merchant Bank (Singapore) limited 

Daiwa Securities (H.K.) Limit ed The Nikko Securities Co. (Asia) Limited Nomura International (Hong Kong) Limited Bankers Trust International PLC 

Carr Indosuez Asia Limited Crosby Securities HG Asia Ltd Morgan Grenfell Asia 

Peregrine Capital Limited Schroders Swiss Bank Corporation Wardley Corporate Finance Limited 

103,550,000 Shares of Common Stock 

The above shares were underwritten in Indonesia only, with the following as representative of the Lead Managing Underwriters. 

P.T. Danareksa Sekuritas 

Lazard Freres et Cie 

Joint Advisors to the Government of the Republic of Indonesia 
Lehman Brothers 

S.G-Warburg & Co. Ltd. 

Advisor to the Company 
Goldman, Sadis & Co. 


Early gains in Treasuries quickly evaporate 

By Frank McGurty in New York 
and Conner MkSdelmann 

In London 

US Treasury bonds held close 
to their opening prices yester- 
day morning In spite of a 
weaker than expected reading 
on consumer confidence. 

By midday, the benchmark 
30-year government bond was 
down £ at 93!i, with the yield 
rising to 8-043 per cent At the 
short end, the two-year note 
was unchanged at 99 l A, to yield 
6.795 per cent 

After a day of heavy losses, 
the selling pressure on the 
long end eased on a mildly 
favourable piece of economic 
news. The Conference Board, a 
trade group, said its October 
index of consumer sentiment 
slipped to 87.6, from 89.5 the 
previous month. The data was 
positive for inflation-sensitive 
bonds because it suggested less 
spending by consumers. 

The development offset an 
earlier announcement by the 
National Association of Real- 
tors that September sales of 
existing homes had climbed 1 
per cent from the August level. 

The figure was not strong 
enough to discourage bargain 
hunting, with the 30-year bond 
yield at its highest level in 
more than two years, but the 
overall tone of the market was 
weak, and early gains quickly 
evaporated. Traders remained 
concerned about an imminent 
move by the Federal Reserve 
to lift short-term interest rates. 

The prospect of a tightening, 
considered likely near the 
Fed’s November 15 policy-mak- 
ing session, discouraged buy- 
ers across the yield curve. 
Traders were looking ahead to 
Friday’s estimate of third-quar- 
ter growth amid fears that the 
data would show that the cen- 
tral bank is allowing the econ- 
omy to expand too fast 

More immediately, dealers 
were adjusting their positions 
ahead of the Treasury’s after- 
noon auction of $17-25bn in 
new two-year notes, to be fol- 
lowed by the sale of Sllbn in 
five-year notes today. Many 
were worried about the mar- 
ket’s ability to absorb the new 
securities with a rate increase 



lower, with Germany leading 
the losses. 

Most markets opened lower 
following overnight weakness 
in US Treasuries and tumbled 
further after breaching key 
technical support levels in the 
futures markets. US consumer 
confidence data helped bonds 
claw back some of their losses, 
but prices slipped back again 
in late trading. 

Meanwhile, the dollar 
showed no signs of arresting 
its slide on the foreign 
exchange markets. With the 
currency down again against 
the yen and D-Mark, the bond 
market was bracing itself for 
further declines as the week 

■ European government bonds 
ended another volatile session 

■ German bunds ended a vola- 
tile day sharply lower, 
depressed by new supply, 
investor selling and the breach 
of key technical support lines 
on the December bund future. 
After breaching support at 
89.50 and 89.00, it bit an intra- 
day low of 88.50 before ending 
at 88.76, down 0.7L 
The first DM3bn tranche of a 
new 7% per cent 10-year bond 
for Germany’s postal authority 
also pressured prices as dealers 
sOld futures against it A sec- 

ond tranche is to be sold today 
via a US-style auction. 
Although the paper offers an 
attractive yield pick-up over 
bonds, it is expected to draw 
little foreign demand and go 
mostly into domestic accounts. 

Dealers reported investor 
sales amid fragile mnricpt senti- 
ment. “There has been some 
Liquidation by people who got 
long after the election," said a 
t /mrion bund dealer. 

accepted bid) of no more than 
2. They were expecting demand 
to be boosted by the paper's 
status as next year’s five-year 

benchmark and the absence of 

a gilt auction in November. 

CFTC to relax 
rules on futures 

By Laurie Morse in Chicago 

■ UK gilts were dragged more 
than Vm point lower by Trea- 
suries and bunds, and were 
depressed farther by the CBfs 
quarterly industrial trends sur- 

Most dealers said they expec- 
ted today's 225bn gilt auction 
to go relatively well in spite of 
the market's weakness, calling 
for a bid-to-cover ratio of 
between 1.5 and 2 times and a 
tail (the difference between the 
average and the lowest 

■ French government bonds 
fen by more than '/« point but 
out-perfonned bunds as inves- 
tors switched into France from 
Germany. The stronger franc 
also helped, attracting some 
outright rash buying, dealers 

While the December OAT 
future on Matif fell by 0.60 
points, the French 10 -year 
benchmark bond’s yield pre- 
mium over bunds narrowed to 
67 basis points from 74 basis 
points on Tuesday. 

Italian government bonds 
were also supported by spread 
trades out of bunds into BTPs; 
Italy’s 10-year yield gap nar- 
rowed to 449 basis points from 
465 basis points on Tuesday. 

The Commodity Futures 
Trading Commission has 
agreed to relax some of its 
rules governing US futures 
pxrhang ps on an experimental 

Johnson & Johnson in rare 
appearance with $400m offer 


By Marlin Brice 

Johnson & Johnson made a 
rare appearance In the euro- 
markets yesterday with a 
5400m unusual two-tranche 

The offering, which received 
praise from other houses, was 
split into two 5200 m parts. 
There was a 7% per cent cou- 
pon, three-year maturity 
tranche aimed at retail inves- 
tors and an 8V4 per cent cou- 
pon, 10-year maturity tranche 
targeted at institutional cus- 

Lead manager Morgan Stan- 
ley said the three-year tranche 
met very strong demand and 
the spread tightened from 15 at 
issue to around 14 when the 
bonds were free to trade. 
Spreads on the 10-year tranche 

stayed around 34 to 32 com- 
pared with the 33 at issue, said 

The rest of the dollar sector 
was dominated by deals from 
Paribas Capital Markets, which 
brought three dollar issues for 
different borrowers, each for 
$200m and in various short- 
dated maturities. 



Citic Pacific Finance made 
an offering guaranteed by Citic 
Pacific, the Hong Kong-listed 
arm of Citic, the Beijing for- 
eign investment company. 
Paribas Capital Markets and 
HSBC were selected as joint 
books on its debut eurobond, a 
three-year $200m floating-rate 

note issue at 50 basis points 
over six-month Libor. 

There was general agree- 
ment in the market that- Pari- 
bas had been select ed fo r its 
European base and. HSBC for 
its Asian links. 

Electricity de France 
brought a $2 00m two-year deal 
with a 7 per cent coupon via 
Paribas, which said the issue 
bail met Strong Homwiid in 
Europe from investors 
attracted by the rare appear- 
ance of rhifi strong namft 

Paribas led a four-year $200m 
offering with a 7K per cent 
coupon from SNCF, the AAA 
rated French railway operator. 
Paribas fed tMs into unsatisf- 
ied demand for the Rabobank 
deal at the same maturity on 
Monday and met good demand, 
much of it from Germany. 


Dom i W f m. 


Johnson & Johnson, Tranche A 200 

Johnson * Johnson. Tranche B 200 

SNCF 200 

Ctttc Pacfflc Finances 200 

BoctridtA de Franco 200 

Coupon Price 

Meturtty Fees Spread Book runner 

% bp 

7.37S 99085R 

MS M.166R 

740 99J7R 

(b) 89-90* 

7.00 99.76R 

Now. 1897 Q.1875R *iStBW%-97) Morgan Storey & Co. MB. 
Nov-2004 0325R +33(7*56-04? Morgan Stanley 4 Ox ML 
Nov. 1996 (LZ25R +15H Paribas Capital Maricets 
Nov. 1997 CL30R - HSBC/ PaiftiM CapLMJdS 

Nov. 1996 Q.15R *12fWI 2yi) Paribas Chattel Markets 

Bayeriache V eral na bank 
Norddeutache Landesbenk 

n.oo ioi no 

11.00 100.975 

Dec-1996 1.125 

Doc.1996 1.125 

Credto RsBano 

Banco Nattonato de Lawxo 

The move, which had been 
expected, came in response to 
requests by the Chicago Board 
of Trade and the Chicago Mer- 
cantile THrcViang ift to have the 
same regulatory relief granted 
to over-the-counter derivatives 
traders in 1963. 

The agency prescribed a 
three-year pilot programme 
with specific limitations. The 
proposed regulatory exemp- 
tions will not apply to any 
existing exchange-listed prod- 
ucts, with the exception of the 
CME’s “rolling spot" foreign 
currency products. 

Only dearly defined groups 
of “professional" traders will 
be allowed to participate In the 
new, exempt markets, and the 
agency will require all pilot 
contracts, which are expected 
to look like over-the-counter 
derivatives, to be cleared 
through a clearing-house. 

Recognising the controver- 
sial aspects of the plan, the 
CFTC is delaying implementa- 
tion for 45 days while it seeks 
public comment Derivatives 

dealers expect t be pripjmme 
tn undergo substantial modifi- 
cations as a result of the public 
comment process. 

The agency, in an unexpect- 
edly forceful move, also said it 
would use the period to deter* 
mine if the exemptions granted 
to unlisted derivatives markets 
in 1993 went too far. 

Ms Mary Scbapuo, the CFTC 
chairwoman, said: “l believe 
that removing necessmy and 
appropriate safeguards and 
protections is not the answer 
to complaints that there is an 
uneven regulatory playing 
field between otherwise compa- 
rable OTC and exchange 
instruments. In this regard, re- 
evaluation of the pilot pro- 
gramme should include scru- 
tiny of the current swaps 
exemption, in conjunction with 
other financial regulators." 

The International Swaps and 
Derivatives Association said it 
needed to study the CFTC pro- 
posal before commenting. 

The CBoT said it was "disap- 
pointed" the exemptions were 
so limited and threatened to do 
battle with the CFTC over the 
issue when the agency's reau- 
thorisations comes before con- 
gress. .The CME, in contrast, 
said it was “delighted" that 
much of its exemption request 
had been granted. 

DSL finance 

European Investment Bank 

JapJnn.Corp.for Small Boainaas 

I raw -American Daw. Bank(c) 

-.1 5(556-99? Barclays da Zoete Weed 

Botco Santander 

Israeli index option launched 

IBJ (Swtay UBS 

By Richard Lapper 

BGU Paribas Lummboisg 

Final terms and non-caUatte unless stated. The yMd spread (over relevant government bond) at breach b suppSod by the lead 
manager, ^floating rets note. *SaniL«njal coupon. Ft fixed ivcttar price; tees am shown at the re-afler (aval a) Over Interpolated 
yMd. b) 6-nuft UBer +60bp. c) Short 1st coupon. 

The day also saw two LlSObn 
two-year deals with 11 per cent 
coupons launched within an 
hour of each other, the first 
when Aal rated Norddeutscbe 
Landesbank made its lira euro- 
market debut via BNL and the 
other from AAA rated Bayer- 








Germany Trau 

Japan Nr 

Japan t* 

UK Gita 

US Treasury ‘ 

ECU (French Govt) 












(UFFE)- Lira 200m lOOtte of 100% 








Open SeO price Change 



Est vol 

Open InL 








9600 00.14 -0.10 












9810 9835 -0.12 





































+0.090 11027 



4. BOO 
















107 201 











1.08 2.09 











008 109 










Be- VOL teal. Cafls asis Pua 3288 Prevloum dvrta open ML. Cali 23561 Putt 283S8 





































t Grass (hdudng wUreMrg msiUpsart peywre W ■ 
Prices: US, UK In 32nda. ocher* lAdacknai 

Scarce: UUS Monadaraf 



Treasury BUa and Bond Yields 

Open Sett price Change Ugh Lour Est. voL Open InL 
86.18 B6.35 -030 8600 85.99 620S3 78,502 

8SJ0 - - ■ 50 

Prime me... — , 

Broker ken «> 

Fed. funds 

Fcd-kHb at banenaon- 


One raoeth — 



Wnyear — 




Hate uwnDi — 
Six man* ■ — 
One jar 

. 874 

. 823 

Bw war— . 


_ 701 



■ NOTIONAL. UK GILT FUTURES frJFFET £50,000 32ndsoM00* 

Open See price Change Wj*i Low Est vol Open tnt 

100-07 99-23 


-0-27 100-14 89-15 73918 99784 

-0-25 0 46 




Sett pries 




Est vol. 

Ctoan ht 






























Eat vc* 

■ LONG GILT FUTURES OPTIONS (UFFE) £00.000 Brithe of 100% 
Strike CALLS ■ PUTS 

Esc ML tcM. CKe 22032 Pin 638. Previous toyTO open InL, Colla 70839 PUB *«01 





- CALLS - 



— PUIS — 







































Open Sett price Change High 
Dec 7956 79.84 -0.84 8002 

Low Eat voL Open ku. 
79.56 710 6,568 

E*. vd. tonL Crts Pun 77,010 . Prerew day's span mt, Con 284J56C Puts 326.583. 



Open Sett price Change Ugh Low Est vol Open InL 
Dec 69.23 88.66 0.79 6926 88.50 189SS7 180986 

Mar 8804 67.90 -0.78 68.34 87.85 746 4513 

■ US TREASURY BOND FUTURES (CST) 5100,000 32nda of 100% 






Est vol 

Open tot 

























a BUND FUTURES OPTIONS (UFFQ DM250.000 pdfnts of 100% 







































Est vc*. total. Orta 2B160 Puts W Previous day's open m«_ Cola 2K1B8 Puts 211750 



0-iFFQ YlOOm rooms of 100% 

Open Close Change High Low Eat. vol Open 1m. 
Dec 107.40 107.51 107.32 2015 0 

■ UFFE contracts traded on APT. Al Open Manat eg*, are ter previous day. 


Triatel — — 188* ... 

Mates tat Bed Price £♦ or- Up Lear 


tot Had Bn£*cr- 

— 1994 — 
Heh Lear 

—YMd— —IBM — 

ffl BWal .a- Hfi Lear 

Wftr (Una ap to Rita Tsars) 

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12DC1W5 1162 

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lOtapelWS 999 

Tims »5«BC rasa— IMS 

HOC 1996 1L9B 

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Ban 13M* 1996# 1123 

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Eadi itfipe 1997 1001 

IhaaflteiWiW ass 

&st»15re1997 1262 

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gnu 13 k ims ions 

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bjsb 'whs 

8.79 11 SIM 
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2WW (785} 184 356!S2Ajd 

2%pc'11 (7461 088 087 1S7A 

2%pc’13 (882) 089 087 12SA 

2*gperiB (8l^ 3,72 389 137% 

-% 111% 1071* 
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-A 148% 

-A 1575 134% 

2%M-20 _«KB 075 090 13111 ISZfi lS% 

2%J*-24#— (97.7) 3.73 387 109A -% 12BA 108% 

4%PC — (ISM X77 361 (OBA -% 1283 105% 

Praaoscave real radempOon sateen prajaciad btaadon of (1) 10% 
and O 5%. (b) Figures to paemby w e show RPI ben lor 


Effiil l!%pc 1999 

Treat ia*3PC 1909 


C an * li on 18%sc 1999- 
TreaRgRatei9S9. — 
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Tims 13K 2000 

10K 200i 

Tee 2001 ft 



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870 8.KI05V6 

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033 8 81 lOOii 

1105 on 117% 
954 896 104)J 

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937 Odd 104A 
A47 M4 «B 
9.43 960 108 

1834 024 in ^ 

-Jj I28A 
-*J 121 A 
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-ii 106A 
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-% 113B 

Treat Bre 2009 






Trees S 1/4K3910 — .... 






taw 9pc b» 2011 » — 






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Trees 5%pc MOB-1 Sift— 





DOT 6K 2013ft 












Tm stroc 2917ft 






Other Fixed Interest 

-YW-- _ 1884 _ 

U Rad Prica? +or- iRp un 

tug Eta )2pc 2013-17. 

837 am 128% -1% 159% 12**, 

■h ,37& 

-fl I2WJ 


ipa% Cmai^<K — - — 
gui Yfar lean 3%p4t-.— 

1Q2U Cow 3'jpc 'fil Ml 

92% nOT3pc«rtt„. 

104% CoaUs2%K 

1D9S Treat 2 1 3pc 

- 45A 

- 40.W -% 

- 57% S 

- — 

- 2«i -% 

- SB* -U 

39% 4411 

5*13 39» 
71 SS% 
44% XS3 
381 j 28,'. 
37% 27U 

Met DavlOiiK 2009 — 9 24 

BTan Il%pc2012. 9.70 

kdMCteieiaKlO- Ml 

9PC CBg 1M8. 867 

13k -97-3 1ZU4 

HjdroOittsciSpeXni- 10H 

Lflrt|13%pc200B 1059 

Uverpoa 3*^c had. 946 

ircarntat nJS 

Mandmff ii%jk2007- IM* 

IfcLWr. Spc’S" 4.41 



lUHoSKta 18%K2009 1161 

869 119% 
965 118% 

- 98% 

- 100% 
- 108 

961 142 

- 127% 


- 32% 

953 114% 
B. 32 68 
<52 132 

468 1Z7 

— . 138% 107£ 

— 142 115 

-h 116% 93% 

-% 103% 99% 
-% 115% 108 

— 19M4 1372 

— m las 

— 44% 33% 

— 40% a% 

136% 112 

78 86% 
159% 13% 

145% 123% 

19% 134% 

• tap* atsdt. a Tu-tres ro WH* Mama on awMon E Aucdcn basts. Kd Ex tSAJand. Cknns nSftpneae are in pcanda. 

iscfae Vertinsbank via Credito 
I taliano 

Credito Italiano said the lira 
market went down after the 
Norddeutscbe deal and the 
Bayerlsche deal was launched 
into a tougher market. 

The European Investment 

Bank brought a Pta20bn, four- 
year deal with a 103 per cent 
coupon via Banco Santander, 
with UBS as joint lead. This 
was the first move into the pri- 
mary peseta market by UBS, 
which recently upgraded its 
Madrid office to a full branch. 

Trading is to begin today on 
the American Stock Exchange 
in options based on an Index of 
Israeli equities listed in the 
United States, allowing inves- 
tors to gain exposure to the 
Israeli equity market 
The option has been devel- 
oped by the Amex and Oscar. 
Gross & Son, a US broker and 
dealer in Israeli stocks. It fol- 
lows the launch of other simi- 

lar products in recent months. 

“Recent privatisations, politi- 
cal manoeuvrings, and peace 
prospects leave investors point- 
ing in Israel’s direction." said 
Mr Joseph Stefanelli, executive 
vice-president, derivative secu- 
rities at the Amex. 

The index reflects the II 
most widely followed and 
highly capitalised US-listed 
companies with interests in 
Israel. It has a combined capi- 
talisation of more than $5bn. 


Pries Indices 

1 Up to 5 years CM) 

2 5-15 years (22) 

a Over IS years (8) 

4 irredeemables (6) 

5 Afl stocks (60) 

B Up to 5 years 0 
7 Over 5 years (11) 
a AB stocks (13) 

Debenture* and Loana 

9 Debs & Loana (77) 


Oct 25 

change M 

Oct 24 




























— Low coupon yMd— -Uadtom coupon yMd- —HM» coupon yMd — 
Oct » Oct 24 Yr. ago Oct 25 Oct 24 Yr. ago Oct 25 Oct 24 Yr. ago 

SL83 5 yr* 
11.00 15 yre 
1057 20 yre 
13.47 Irrad-t 





























— -MaOonm- 



- bifiatton 10% 


Oct 25 Oct 24 Yr. 

Oct 25 Oct 24 Yr. 

SJJ7 Up to 5 yre 
4J8 Over 5 yre 

a year yMd —— 15 year yield — 2B*eor»Md 

Oct 25 Oa 24 Yr. ago Oct 25 Oct 24 Yr. ago Oct 2S Oct 24 Yr. ago 

Average grass mu c ym n ywa ere rioan eboes. Coupon BenOT Low. 0H-7HK; 

9-Z4 9.83 a 73 741 9.7S 

Medksn BK-10**; H0K 11* and w. f Ftot ytaU. ytd Year to i 


Oct 25 Oct 24 Oct 21 Oct 20 Oct 19 Yr i 


Od 24 Oct 21 Oct 20 Oct 19 Oct IB 

Oct 25 Oct 24 Oct 21 Oct 20 Oct 19 Yr ago High - Low- Oct 24 Oct 21 Oct 20 Oct 19 Oct IB 

Oort. Sea. (UK) 90-40 9094 91.29 91.30 91.90 1Q3J6 107-04 B&54 Gfit Edged Iwgalne 64a 91 3 864 89.4 806 

Fixed Merest 107 j« 10794 10005 10031 10055 12433 133-87 10R50 S^y mirage 64J BOA 91.0 944 97a 

• ior 16ft*. aovwmwtt Saeurtfea Ngri »nca contag i on: 127^0 (BTV33. low 48-11 pn/73|. FWm Interest NJi «me» cm rxiaeflpii : 13167 gi/VM) . tem 8053 OTir7q . Barit 100; O uvemnenr Oaourflae ISTUY 
38 and Ftead mms 1828. 8E acttvtty b£n rebaaad 187*. 


Used are th* West ntematad bonds fonarich OTre to an adeqMte sacondny rroriat Lataat pdcaa at 7SOO pm «n October 23 

issued BM Otter Chg. YMd Issued Bd (Mar Chg. YMd 

US DOLLAR STRAIGHTS ltoW)0np()Bro7l»S7. 

Abbey Nri Tmuy B% 03 1QOO 88% 88% -% 850 Vr*MagcflMRn7<B 

Atorta Province 7% 96 1000 89% 9J% 7-81 WaridHroKOIS 

Austria 8% 00 400 102% «B% 791 Word Bar* 5% 03 

BMtolT*»o8% 98 100 101% 101% 737 Watt Bn* 8% 00 

.5500 100% 

-A 203% I97JJ 
-A 1134 106,1, 
-% 17E% 163% 

Austria 8% 00 

Bo* of Tt**) 8% 98 — 

Begun & 03 

BFC6 7%97 

Britisfi Gas 021 


OwngKongFh5%0B - 



Crodt Faxar 9% 99 — 


East Jtoan Mnay 8% 0* 

BMC 8% 96 


BB7% 86 

SB 9% 97 

Bee de fiance 9 88 

Gunfire 9% 98 

Bc-tn 8 b* 8 02 _ 

Bcwn Dev Cop 8% 88 _ 
Federal ftod Mort 740 OA . 

Hrtand 6% 97 


For! Motor CM* 8% 88 . 


tad 8k JapBi ni 7% 97 - 
hter Arner Oev 7% 98 — 

My 6% 23 

Japan Dw Bt 8% 01 

Karel Sec Pi* 10 96 

Ktrre Bee Rarer 6% 03 . 

Lire Hi 6 97 

Manvay 7% 97 . . 

Ontario 7% 03 

Oeur Kaacoar* 8% 01 . 

fttoCarej6 7%« 

Pcrtugd5% 03 

Qtebec Hyde 9% 96 

Quebec Pw9 98 

Sansbuy &% 96 

SAS 10 SB 

SNCF 0% 98 

Spain 6 1 ! 99 

Smis 6k NSW 6% 96 


T*yo BK Power 5% 03 . 
TcAyo MebopoSs 8% 96 — 

Topre Meter 5% 98 

Unto! KtofPcm 7% K — 

Watt Bb* 6% 88 

Watt Ban* 8% 97 

.400 102% XB% 791 Wcttt Bar* 5% 03 

.100 101% 101% 737 Watt 8 b* 6% 00 

1000 82% 32% -% 840 

150 100% 101% 736 9NI88 FRANC BTRAKJHTS 

1600 8% 8% -4 910 Aston Dev Sir* 6 10 

. 1000 93% 94% -% 890 
. 2000 29% 20% -% 797 

.3000 06% 88% 

.1250 108% 103% -% 649 

,1000 ■•02% 102% -% 833 Austria 4% 00 

. 900 83% 89% 

898 Coundl Bippa 4% 88 . 

tOOO 64% 64% -% 336 Denmark *% 99 . 

.100 98 

.1000 95% 

-250 86% 

99% -% 610 

96 •% 544 

-100 101% 101% 720 BB6%0A 

-300 106% 108% -% 793 Bee da fiance 7% 06 — 

.1000 94% 95% -% 743 fintod7%99 

- 800 8B% 86% -% 648 HyintW Mtobr fin 8% 97 

-193 101% 102% -% 737 fcatond 7% (K) 

. 1000 95% 95% -% 537 

-300 104% 105 -% a» 

_ 100 107 MB 835 

.100 107 MB 

.300 106% 106% 
. 100 105% 108% 

. 100 101% 101% 

150 105% 105% -% 7.76 

1500 95% 95% -% 628 

3000 98 98% 793 

.1500 95% 88 -% 796 FWtodB%98 

- 300 103% 103% -% 721 Hrr Anar Dw7% 00. 

-200 102 102% -% 749 Wy3%01 

-200 100% 700% 728 JapBi Dev 0(598 _ 

-203 100% 101% -% 7.17 4pen0ee8k6%01 - 

.3500 77% 77% -% 931 r^ponTalTBS% 90 . 

-SCO 101 101% -% 8.1S Norrey 5% 97 

_ SO 103% 104 -% 799 SNCF 8% 00 

.1380 84% 85 -% BX» Spato5%0Z 

- 200 100% 101 7J8 aredSl4%90 

Iceland 7% 09 






Kobe 8% 01 






OntaJo B% 03 

■ ■■■■- 400 





Oiebec tVfci 5 06 












Watt Hs* 5 03 ___ 






WcridBa*7 01 







as 6% 00 











AbttoyNtom»B»iy BOSE. 
AMnca Lake 11% 97 E — 

Utah land 8% 23 E 


BBW97E., . 


Hatton 1(^| WE 

HBacHddngi119BaeE . 

My 10% 14E 

Japan Dw Bk700£ 

Latt Bans 9% 07E 

Ontario 11% 01 E 


Severn Trent 11% 99 E — 
Tdfio BacPcwar 11 0lE_ 
AbbayNdbnalOSSNZS — 

TCNZ Hi 8% Q2 NZS 

Croat locdstnm 

BK da France 8% 22 FFr _ 
SNEF9% 97 FFr 

.1000 90% 
-100 105% 
-150 06% 

.800 93 

-637 KB 

- 100 103% 
.500 103% 

- IBJ 108% 

-4m UE% 
-200 91 

- 200 85% 

. IX 106% 

- 260 95% 

- 160 107% 
-ISO 107 

. 100 04% 

-75 88% 

OH* Chg. YMd 

80% -% 948 

100 -% 075 

87*4 -% 1057 
93% -% 898 
VB% -% MS 
104 -% 056 

103% -% 948 

109 -% 1002 

106% -% 947 

91% -% 947 

86% -% a® 

107% -% 900 

95% -% 909 

107% -% 943 

OT% -% 9» 

. 7000 87% 

.3000 96% 

4000 103% 

88% -% 844 

87 -% 9JDB 

104% -% 7-49 


!DOOO 104% 105 4% 32S 

. 1000 94% 94% -H 644 VtaiflBar*5%02 . 

. 1000 99% 100% 

- 3X00 112% 113 

30000} 91% 91% 

. 100000 102% 102% 

120000 109% 109% 

- SOOOO 104% 104% 

. 150000 103% 103% 

- 30000 109% 110 

. 125000 105% 105% 

. 160000 1171% 101% 
.290000 102% 102% 

3000 94% 94% -% 042 OT>«l STWttQHTS 

- 200 102 102% an? Gemma Lux 9% 99 IFr 1000 104% 105% 700 

-200 100 100% 701 K3OBUthdua0c6%03lfir_SOOO 100% 101% 845 

1000 83% 84 -% 952 World Bark 0981ft 1000 100 101 704 

150 105% HB% -% 8.17 A0NAmroB% OOR 1000 

200 102% KB% -% OW BWNedQerneanan7(BR _ 1500 94% 94% -% 701 

150 103 103% 709 AttertaPWrtoc e 10% 98 CS 500 103% 1<B% 703 

. 150 103 103% 

.ZB 104% 105% -% 6J2 BaOn*te10%9SCS . 

ISO 105% 

7.78 BdWi Ddjrtta 10 66 CS . 

180 104% 105% *% 904 

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Guess the cost of starting a new 
national telephone network - quadruple 
it and multiply the answer by five. 

Then make it the most advanced 
network in the world, that's capable of 
carrying pictures and information as 
well as sound - add another billion or 
two. At Energis we’ve managed to avoid 

that cost with a brilliant idea. 

Energis is owned by the National 
Grid Company, so what we've done is 
put fibre optic cable along the pylon 
wires to create a new, state-of-the-art, 
long distance telephone service. 

You've probably already heard of the 
information super highway, well Energis 

bring you the information super highwire. 

And yes, the savings will be passed 
on to you, which is why major customers 
have already decided to use us. 

But you don’t have to be a major 
customer to use us, 4 or more fines is 
sufficient to make it worth your while, 
if your company makes a significant 

proportion of long distance calls. 

(You may well be surprised to learn 
that ‘long distance’ is anything over a 
mere 35 miles.) 

So, in the future, as well as using 
phone calls to make you money, you 
could also be using phone calls to save 







Lep acts to cut £340m debt 

By Tim Burt 

Lep Group, the loss making 
freight forwarding and security 
company, has begun intensive 
talks with its lenders in a bid 
to reduce its £340m debt 
The group - restructured in 
1992 in one of the UK's largest 
debt-fbr-equity swaps - admit- 
ted yesterday that its core 
businesses could no longer ser- 
vice interest payments, which 
totalled £l6.lm f£l7.5m) in the 
six months to June 30. 

Mr David James, the com- 
pany doctor appointed chair- 
man by the banks two and a 
half years ago. said the com- 
pany was anxious both to 
reduce £169m of “dead debts" 
from discontinued businesses 
and to refinance National 
Guardian Corporation (NGC), 
its US security business. 

“The company is addressing 
these problems with our banks 
but it could be a year before 

the discussions are completed." 
Lep's bankers currently hold 
85 per cent of the equity, which 
they exchanged for £i80m of 
debt two years ago when group 
borrowings stood at £630m. 

Although the group has 
reduced borrowings through a 
series of disposals, including 
the £89 tn sale earlier this year 
of Swiss Bank House in Lou- 
don, Mr James said the core 
businesses could only afford 
interest payments on the 
£149m portion of tbe debt 
which they used for working 

Their ability even to meet 
those payments was hampered 
in the first half by £2. 92m of 
exceptional charges covering 
restructuring, litigation costs 
and the security division's 
withdrawal from its special 
engineering business. 

Those charges helped cut 
operating profits from £142m 
to £9A5m. Interest payments, a 

David James: no dividend in 
foreseeable future 

£2.57m provision for loss on 
the disposals and a £lm loss on 
the closure of Lep Industrial 
Holdings together contributed 
to increased pre-tax losses of 
£S.66m (E5.05m). Turnover was 
up at £723m (£703m). 

Mr James said the core 

security and freight forwarding 
businesses remained profitable, 
but their performance had 
been undermined by a series of 
“disastrous” acquisitions in 
the 1980s. 

“Our strategy has been to 
get rid of anything which is 
not fundamental to our two 
main activities," he added. 

The group said it would sell 
its distribution business, sup- 
plying mainly automotive com- 
ponents, “within a few weeks” 
and was determined to further 
restructure its freight forward- 
ing businesses. 

It also predicted that it 
would agree a refinancing 
package for NGC in the first 
quarter of next year. 

Losses per share increased 
from 0.7p to Lip, and with no 
funds to pay a dividend. Mr 
James warned: “There can be 
no expectation of a dividend 
payment in the foreseeable 

Heart drug 
buoys sales 
at Zeneca 

By Thn Burt 

Zeneca, the agrochemicals and 
pharmaceuticals group, 
reported an 8 per cent increase 
in turnover from £3.2bn to 
£3.45bn in the first nine 
months of this year. 

Demand for ZestriL its best- 
selling heart treatment, helped 
lift turnover in the pharma- 
ceutical division from £1.36bn 
to £1.48bn. 

Sales growth in the final 
quarter is expected to fall back 
slightly as the benefits of the 
Zestrfl Incentive Patient Pro- 
gramme - its response to 
aggressive pricing by rival 
drag companies - starts to 
wane. Tbe programme 
prompted a wave of purchases 
in July and August 

Reporting its first nine- 
month sales figures since its 
demerger from IQ in June last 
year, the group said the agro- 
chemicals division enjoyed 
Increased turnover of £1.21bn 
(£1.12bn) following strong 
sales in North America and 
“an encouraging start” to the 
season in Latin America. 

The group lost £9 2m in con- 
tributions from businesses 
sold off during the past year, 
mainly in the specialities divi- 
sion which manufactures coat- 
ings and resins. 

ScotMet returns to the black 

By Richard Woffle 

Scottish Metropolitan, 
Scotland's largest property 
company, yesterday announced 
a turnround to pre-tax profits 
of £11 .3m for the year to 
August 15. against losses of 

Tbe recovery was underpin- 
ned by a 44 per cent reduction 
in interest costs from £i5.9m to 
£9m and a £5 .56m gain on the 
sale of investment properties. 

Operating profits shrunk to 
£l4.7m (£l7.6mj as net revenue 
from properties fell to £l6.3m 
(£19m) after a £35.9m net 

disposal of properties. 

Mr Scott Cairns, managing 
director, said the company 
would improve net revenue by 
reducing Its level of vacant 

“We are still running with 
higher than average voids in 
the sector,” be said. “We do 
not expect a lot of help from 
the letting market in the next 
12 months, but we still expect 
to reduce the level of vacant 

The company also aims to 
increase its portfolio of 
Scottish property, particularly , 
in the industrial sector, and 

further reduce its office prop- 

Gearing fell from 181 per 
cent to 61 per cent as borrow- 
ings were cut from £14L9m to 
£79 .2ra by the year-end. 

During the period a rights 
issue raised £26. 8m net of 
expenses. A £l&8m surplus on 
valuation of investment prop- 
erties also helped to lift net 
asset value per share from 
8L7p to 99.3p. 

Earnings per share stood at 
8.82p after 2,i3p losses last 
year. A recommended final div- 
idend of L5p makes a total of 
2p (L5p>. 

LMS buys shopping arcades 

By Richard Wolffe 

London Merchant Securities, 
the property and investment 
company, has acquired Arca- 
dia, a private company with a 
portfolio of Victorian shopping 

LMS acquired an 80 per cent 
stake in Arcadia by providing 
£14.5m of five year redeemable 
loan stock. The capital will 
dear Arcadia’s bank borrow- 
ings of about £l0m and enable 
the purchase of further shop- 
ping centres. 

In exchange, Arcadia has 
taken over a £2zn portfolio of 
four LMS retail properties 

[dividends ANNOUNCED i 

Correa - 



Current Date of 




payment payment 




Stocks Leisure — 



Feb 3 




Boxmore Inti § int 


Dec a 




Bradford Prop — 

— int 


Jan 5 




Edinburgh Inv — 

— int 


Doc 2 




Contrjj-Cycflca) HTt 

Nov 30 






1.265 A 





McKechnle — 



Jan 28 




Ocean WOsons lnt 


Nov 30 




Scottish Metro — 

— Jin 


Jan 6 




Sunset -»■ Vine — 



Dec 8 







Dec 9 







Jan 31 




Dividends shown pence per share net except where otherwise stated. tOn 
Increased capital. §USM stock. Alrish pence. 

across the UK which are expec- 
ted to be sold on. 

Mr Robert Spier, LMS 
finance director, said: “We 
were looking to expand our 
retail interests, which are very 
much larger. Arcadia is going 
to stick to this type of busi- 
ness. rather than going into 
big shopping centres." 

Arcadia was formed in 1988 
to manage arcade properties in 
Cardiff, Walsall and Stirling, 
with its revenue mainly deriv- 
ing from independent retailers 

Stakis buys 



Stakis, the Glasgow-based 
hotel group, has bought Ren- 
thotel (UK) for £6.1m cash. 
Renthotel’s only asset Is the 92 
bedroom Harewood Hotel, 
opposite Mary Leb one Station in 
central London. 

Some £8m of the consider- 
ation is repayment of debt A 
further £200,000 is payable in 
respect of working capital. 

This announcement appears as a matter of record only. 


is pleased to announce 
the NASDAQ, N.M.S. listing of the 








For further information regarding The Bank of New Yorks ADR Services, 
please concacr Kenneth A. Lopian in New York (212) 815-2084, or Michael 
McAuliffe in London (071) 322-6336. 

on short-term leases or 

The r emaining 20 per cent of 
Arcadia shares will be held by 
Mr Peter Smith, who founded 
tbe company, and Mr Rod 
Pearson, former managing 
director of Raglan Property 
Trust Mr Nicholas Driver and 
Mr Robert Rayne, directors of 
LMS, will join Arcadia's board. 

LMS reported a 20 per cent 
drop in pre-tax profits to 
£22 2m last year. Its properties 
were valued at £379.fim. 

The hotel, to be known as 
the Stakis London Harewood, 
brings the group’s total to 37 
hotels and 22 casinos through- 
out the UK. The group 
announced a £10. 4m pre-tax 
profit at the beginning of the 
year, turning round from 
losses of £47.7m after two years 
of restructuring and disposing 
of Ashbourne Holdings, its 
nursing home operations. 

“Despite the increasing 
buoyancy in the London hotel 
market, this deal proves that it 
is possible to find good buying 
opportunities,'' said Mr David 
Michels, chief executive. 

Blacks Leisure 

Blacks Leisure Group, the 
camping, sports and fashion 
group, lapsed back into the red 
at the half year stage. 

Although still in the black at 
the operating line with profits 
of £339,000 (£499,000 from con- 
tinuing operations), interest 
charges and a £95,000 provision 
for reorganisation pushed the 
group into a pre-tax deficit of 
£53,000 in the six months to 
August 27, against profits of 

Nevertheless, Mr Simon 
Bentley, chairman and chief 
executive, was reasonably 
upbeat on prospects: ,U I do not 
believe the results fully reflect 
tbe progress made in the last 
six months," he said. Accord- 
ingly, the interim dividend is 
maintained at 0.75p; losses per 
share were 0.62p (earnings of 

EIT net 
faU 4.5% 

By Janes Buxton, 

Scottish Correspondent 

Edinburgh Investment Trust, 
one of the largest UK invest- 
ment trusts, reported a fall of 
4.5 per cent to 326.6p in net 
asset value per share in the 
half year to September 30. 

The fall exceeded the decline 
of 3.3 per cent In the FT-SE-A 
All-Share Index over the 
period and meant that the 
trust did not achieve one of its 
regularly stated objectives. 

However, EIT, managed by 
Dunedin Fund Managers, 
achieved its other stated objec- 
tive of producing dividend 
growth ahead of UK inflation. 
It declared an Interim divi- 
dend Of 3.05P (2.95p) - a 3.4 
per cent increase compared 
with a rise in retail prices of 
2.2 per cent. 

Earnings per share fell from 
5.77p to 5.35p, as a result of 
switching part of the gilts 
portfolio into lower yielding 
equities in the latter part of 
last year, as well as the 
timing of some dividend 

However, dividend growth 
from underlying investments 
exceeded expectations and the 
directors are confident of 
being able to increase the final 

Salomon has 73% 
of Attwoods prefs 

Salomon Brothers, the US 
investment bank, has become 
a preference shareholder in 
Attwoods, the waste manage- 
ment company fighting a 
£364m bid from Browning-Fer- 
ris Industries of the US- 

After buying lm preference 
shares at 88Vtp last week, Salo- 
mon disclosed yesterday that 
it had paid a further £3.2m for 
3.64m prefs, at 88p, bringing 
its stake to 7.3 per cent This 
is 3p higher than BFTs offer. 
Salomon bought some of the 
prefs from Fidelity Invest- 
ments, which remains a sub- 
stantial ordinary shareholder. 

A successful BFI would have 
the right in certain circum- 
stances to demand early con- 
version of the prefs, or 
redemption at 100p. Laidlaw of 
Canada has agreed to sell its 
73 per cent pref stake to BFL 

Guardian Media shows 
45% advance to £16.7m 

By Raymond Snoddy 

The Guardian Media group, 
publishers of The Guardian, 
The Observer and tbe Man- 
chester Evening News, yester- 
day announced a 45 per cent 
increase in Interim pre-tax 

The increase for the six 
months to October 1 - from 
£11 ,5m to £16- 7m - exceeded 
pre-tax profits for tbe last full 

Turnover was up from £122m 
to £143m. 

Mr Harry Roche, chairman 
and chief executive of the 
Guar dian Media Group, con- 

ceded that the results reflected 
the decision to take the 
full costs of redundancy and 
integration of Tbe Observer 
purchase In last year's figures. 

All the company’s operations 
- including broadcasting, 
publishing and local newspa- 
pers - were showing strong 

“We are very happy to have 
maintained the sale of our 
national newspapers without 
having to resort to cover price 
reductions,” said Mr Roche. 

“But we take a cautious view 
of the future, given the costs of 
competing in the market and 
the projected increases in 

newsprint costs." ho added. ^ 

In the six months to Septem- 
ber. The Guardian averaged 
daily sales of 39S.W6. 

This was a drop of 1.5 per 
cent, but sales bounced back in 
September and rose to 4I0,S8b‘. 
representing an increase of 
some S.39 per cent. 

The Observers circulation 
averaged 487.800 for tbe six 
months, representing a drop of 
1.88 per cent. 

Mr Roche said yesterday the 
group’s balance sheet 
remained ''exceptionally 

strong - ’. , , . 

Further acquisitions were 
likely as opportunities arose. 

LAWS exceeds expectations 

By John McManus in Dublin 

LAWS, the Irish animal feed 
and fertiliser group, yesterday 
reported a 27 per cent improve- 
ment in annual profits. 

The pre-tax line rose from 
I£10.lm to l£12.8m (£l2.6m) on 
turnover up 19 per cent to 
I£479.Sm. The figures, which 
exceeded most brokers' fore- 
casts, reflected good perfor- 
mances by bey operations in 
Ireland and contributions from 
recent UK acquisitions. 

The group, 84 per cent-owned 
by the Irish Agricultural 
Wholesale Society cooperative, 
had turnover of I£156m in 

Britain, which included the 
first full year contribution 
from Pertwee and Parson, two 
fertiliser businesses bought in 
1992. There was also a half 
year contribution from Nordos, 
a fishmeal company purchased 
in February for I£2m. 

The Irish operations, which 
Include the manufacture of 
food ingredients, animal feed 
and fertiliser blending and dis- 
tribution, all performed well, 
according to Mr David Martin, 
finance director. 

Cash flow from operating 
activities was I£23.5m, allowing 
the group to reduce borrowings 
from l£9.5m to I£1.9m, bringing 

interest charges down from 
I£5.9m to I£4.56m. Gearing 
stands at 4 per cent. 

Both the Nordos purchase 
and a I£3.2m acquisition in 
July of the Malting Company 
of Ireland were funded out of 
cash flow and further bolt-on 
acquisitions in Britain, funded 
in the same way, are being 
considered. Mr Martin added. 

IAWS is carcying out due dil- 
igence on United Fish Products 
in Scotland, for which it has 
bid I£1 Ubl 

Earnings per share were up 
16 per cent to 8.7p; a proposed 
final dividend of l.265p lifts the 
total by 15 per cent to 2.415p. 

Euclidian unveils £20m placing 

By Ralph Atkins 
Insurance Correspondent 

Euclidian, one of the latest 
batch of corporate vehicles 
planning to invest in the 
Lloyd's of London insurance 
market, yesterday announced 
details of its proposed £20m 
stock market placing. 

It hopes to attract investors 
with its high gearing and by 
participating in a wide spread 
of syndicates in 1995. Impact 
day has been set for November 

Euclidian has agreed a gear- 
ing and risk-sharing agreement 
with Centre Re. the Bermuda 
reinsurance subsidiary of Zur- 


Retail lifted sales by some 8 
per cent to £23.1m, but the 
sports side suffered from pres- 
sure on margins while the 
product mix on the outdoor 
operation was affected by the 
hot summer. 

However, the second half 
had started well, Mr Bentley 
said. New stores had opened in 
Chester and Glasgow with oth- 
ers set to open in Worcester 
and Kingston by the year-end. 

Distribution reported a 
reduced operating deficit on 
sales ahead 35 per cent to 
£8.4m with good showings by 
the Miss Sam and O'Neill busi- 
nesses. The troublesome Fila 
distributorship performed “sat- 
isfactorily" with increased 
orders for the second half. 

The shares fell 3p to 31p, 
valuing the company at just 
under £l0m, 


The board of Tomorrows Lei- 
sure, based in Tyneside, con- 
firmed last night that they 
were holding talks with Wig- 
gins Group concerning a possi- 
ble acquisition and associated 
equity funding. No other 
details were available. 

Sunset + Vine 

Sunset + Vine, the television 
production company, reported 
a jump in pre-tax profits from a 
restated £108,000 to £l.Q2m for 
the year to June 30. 

The company said the 
accounts had been prepared on 

a revised basis reflecting 
changes in the nature of the 
business from contracted 
long-term projects to other 
areas of television. The under- 
lying performance would have 
produced pre-tax profits of 
£932,000 (£505.000) under the 
previous accounting policy. 

During 1994*95 sponsored 
programming would represent 
less than 50 per cent of turn- 
over for the first time, it said. 

Turnover amounted to 
£5.9fim (£3.7lm) including 
£791,000 from acquisitions 
which also contributed £167,000 
to operating profits of £975,000 
(£27,000). In May the company 
acquired Mobile Image, the 
outside broadcast facilities 
company, for £2m. 

Sunset also announced yes- 
terday the acquisition of Walk- 
er-Smith Events Licensing and 
Sponsorship for a nominal 

Earnings per share came 
through at 12.1p (1.3p) and a 
final dividend of 2J>p (2p) is 
proposed for a 4p (3.5p) total 

Boxmore Inti 

Boxmore International, the 
Northern Ireland-based plastic 

packaging manufacturer which 

expanded into mainland 
Britain this year, announced 
interim pre-tax profits ahead 38 
per cent from £2. 72m to £3.75m. 

Mr Harold Ennis, rhairman , 
said all operations had per- 
formed well. Turnover for the 
six months to June 30 
increased by 36 per cent to 

ich Insurance. Under the deal, 
Centre Re will make available 
£28m in funds at Lloyd's. 

That will allow Euclidian 
to underwrite insurance poli- 
cies paying premiums of £80ra, 
four times the gross capital 

Centre Re will buy 5 per cent 
of Euclidian's ordinary 

Euclidian plans to place 
funds with up to 65 Lloyd's 
syndicates, selected by Indem- 
nity Insurance Services, the 
broker and Lloyd’s adviser. 

Mr James Truscott and Mr 
James Stuart, joint managing 
directors of QS, are directors of 

£23. lm (£i7m) and operating 
profits were 44 per cent up at 
£3.56m (£2.47m). He warned, 
however, that “substantial raw 
material price increases" had 
affected selling prices. 

USM-quoted Boxmore 
acquired Label Research, a 
pharmaceutical labels maker, 
In February for up to £13.4m, 
most of which was raised by a 
share placing. The acquisition 
contributed £2.3m to sales and 
£701,000 to operating profits. 

Because of the additional 
equity and increased tax, earn- 
ings per share advanced by 
just 16 per cent to l0.9p (9.4p). 

The interim dividend is lifted 
10 per cent to 1375p (1.25p). 


UDO Holdings, the supplier of 
drawing office equipment and 
reprographic services, attri- 
buted a 32 per cent rise in 
annual profits to its cost-cut- 
ting programme and emphasis 
on high margin products. 

In the year to July 31, pre-tax 
profits rose from £3. 73m to 
£4.91m despite a fall in turn- 
over from £48 .5m to £47m. 

Mr Mike Wright, chai rman, 
said the improvement reflected 
savings achieved by a redun- 
dancy programme and renewed 
emphasis on higher margin 
products, especially in the col- 
our imaging services. 

Earnings per share rose by 
32 per cent to 11.85p (8.99p), 
and the proposed final divi- 
dend of 5.78p makes a total of 
6p (7-2p), up 11 per cent 

Efforts by Lloyd's to inject 
corporate capital into the 
insurance market have not 
proved easy this year shares 
in most of the 12 quoted corpo- 
rate investment companies 
underwriting this year are 
trading below the level at 

• Wellington Underwriting, 
another planned Lloyd's corpo- 
rate Investor, has rescheduled 
its placing pending Lloyd's reg- 
ulatory board approval of pro- 
posals to allow existing corpo- 
rate vehicles to invest In 
others. Impact day, originally 
scheduled for this week, is now 
November 11 with dealings 
starting on November 17. 

Ocean Wilsons 

Pre-tax profits at Ocean Wil- 
sons Holdings fell 26 per cent 
from £3. 09m to £2. 28m in the 
six months to June 30. 

Turnover at the investment 
holding and shipping company 
rose from £46.4m to £58.1m, an 
increase of 25 per cent. 

Earnings per share were 
4^2p (4p) and the interim divi- 
dend is unchanged at lp. 

Pictet trust launch 

Pictet Asset Management the 
UK arm of the Swiss private 
bank, is to launch its first 
investment trust. 

The First Russian Frontiers 
Trust wifi invest in companies 
operating in the former Soviet 
republics and satellites. The 
initial portfolio will concen- 
trate on Bulgaria, Romania, 
Russia, Ukraine and Uzbeki- 

No more than 15 per cent of 
the fund's assets will be in the 
more developed markets of the 
Czech Republic, Hungary, 
Poland and Slovakia. Many of 
the investments will be in 
unlisted securities. 

Pictet already has about 
$60m (£38m) invested in the 
region, mostly through a Lux- 
embourg-based umbrella fund 

The fund will be listed in 
London but dollar denomi- 
nated, with an initial life of 10 
years. Pictet aims to raise up 
to $60m from institutional 
investors, with a m inimum 
subscription of $50,000. 


Issue of up to 
Floating Rate Notes 
Due 2005 

In accordance with the terms and 
coodiitom of (be Notes, notice is 
hereby given ituulor the three 
month imereti period from land 
mduiimg.1 2Sth October 1994 to 
(but eadudingl 25th January 1495 
the Notes will cany a rate of 
intense of 6.625 per cent, per 
annum. The relevant interest 
purtReni dju mil be 2ftb January 
1445, The coupon amount per 
XUM0.iKM.00 Nwc will be 
.Ub.ti98.63 payable against uirren- 
derof Coupon No: ?.>. 

Htunbros Bank Limited 
. Agent Bank > 


Sod£U Anooyme - Luxembourg 

AS o! October 15. 1394. the 
unconscJUaled not aasot value 
was USD 3S5.MA915.2S. La 
USD 6-10.45 per share of USD 200 
par value. 

The consolidated net asset value 
per share amounted as of 
October 1 5. 1994 to USD 682 .23. 


la the Utah Court of Jntice OQWMofim 
Ouco) DMdoo 



NOTICE IS HEREBY GfVEV dor « ftetfoao was 
tn tbe 12th day of October 1W4 p re sciuul to Rer 
Majesty's High Court of Juulcc (or the 
conflrmitlQi] of iba reduction or the share 
ptnnlutu ucootau of thr atwe-uaed Company 

nJd Petition » directed to be heard before Mi 
Kqpstrar BuULfcy or 0k Royal Corns at /ostfce, 
Stnnd. Union WC2A 2LL on Wnfaeaday, JOth 
No v ember 1994 . 

ANY CREDITOR at shareholder of the said 
Company desiring to oppose the nuking of an 
Older for the conftnawo at tbe said iRkfcriaa of 
Iks shut premium account should appear it dx 
time of the bearing in person or by Gomel for 
dial popoae. 

A copy of tbe uid Petition mill by furnished m 
toy sach penoa requiring tbe same by tbe 
aodermrarioaed solicitors oa pej mem of tbe 
regulated charge lor the suae. 

Dared Uih October IW 
Aahnist Mon* Crtsp 
Bwadwalk House 
5 Appotd Street 
LvoAm EC2A 2HA 
TekOTl 4M 1111 
Brf SAW/spn 

Sobatora for On: said Company 


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Tut (212) 088 0900 Free i2l2) 688 8229 

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FT Surveys 

Tto ndvtnkrqe a a_bgred in cmpliJmct with the irgairenresti of. lad its coausre. to. 
■*g pr T? J . bi ''. T 1 * i c wri Suck Ezdumae of the United Kingdom and tbe 
Umdom Stoci EwhmgeT pursuant to section 1H of 

TTrh adwiWn, d«a not oontnin ^ jnfomurUoo about The HSBC C3un« Ftaad 

Limited (“the Comp 

ether than tbe (nfonnatton act out bdow and sbouid therefore 
w “** Cwb P«v dared 

be Company") ether than a 
ooqjuetion with the fauna 
W (the “Ltatiug PartktrlmV'.. 

deabnsi iu the Ordinary Sfarei nod 


Introduction to 
The London Stock Exchange 

54,009,600 ordinary shares of USS0.01 each 


1,798,400 Warrants 

(each entitling the holder to subscribe for six Shares) 
Sponsored by 

James Capel & Co Limited 

■ • -hiM ” Cln ™ jra investment 

■ HyinuMTif, jfl Oilaa »» nni i a n 

investments, production activities, tmdlne nr nih. risniflouu ssscu. 

Com of tbe Latut PartlealM tm T~ 

assrsi Basrisn3ssg3saa^3®sr*B 

c- * cb. u 

26 th October 1934 


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t20m * 


financial hmto 


McKechnie rises 44% 
and seeks acquisitions 


fy Pa«i Chnesertght, 


McKechnie yesterday main- 
tained its dividend at the game 
level for the sixth consecutive 
year despite announcing a 44 
per cent annual profits 

The plastics and metals com- 
po nfint s group announced pre- 
tax profits of £35 .am for the 
year to end -July, compared 
with £24.5m, and declared its 
intention of making' acquisi- 
tions in the Pacific area.. 
Europe and North America. 

“The business needs to be 
developed globally," said Mr 
Michael Ost, chief executive. 
Sharp increases in domestic 
sales have meant that 48 per 
cent of turnover comes from 
the UK 

Profits were swollen by 
£3.07m of exceptional items, 
the net gain, from the acquisi- 
tion of five companies, the dis- 
posal of three and the account- 
ing treatment of goodwill But 
the underlying was at 
the tqp end of City expecta- 

Earnings per share were 
27. Ip on headline profits and 
24 7p on an underlying basis, 
against 21.4p. The final divi- 
dend lS 9.75p, maintaining the 
total at 14.75p. McKechnie 
intends to secure dividend 
cover of 2 before incr easing 
payments. Cover provided by 
underlying gamings fa u. 

Turnover rose to £420m 
(2314.4m), producing operating 
profits of £3L6m, against 
£2L7m. It was. said McKechnie, 
“a good year". 

This was especially the case 
in the second six months, 
when profits before interest 
were 44 per cent higher than in 
the first half. That trend 
appears to be continuing. 

“The new financial year has 
shown a very satisfactory and 
encouraging trading situa- 
tion," the company raid 

The profits increase came 
from a combination of factors: 
the successful integration into 
its consumer products division 
of Savage, which produced 
£6 .5m of operating profits, the 
strength of the Australian mar- 
ket and the elimination of plas- 

tics losses in the US during the 
second half. 

Prospect to 
pay £11.7m 
for Whessoe 
piping side 


The wind is now behind 
McKechnie. With thw exception 
of the UK housing products 
market, it is finding trading 
conditions more congenial 
across the globe. There is the 
expectation of Anther recovery 
in continental Europe, phis a 
full year’s contribution from 
Unread, its latest significant 
buy. It is also obtaining the 
benefits of productivity drives. 
So the short term outlook Is 
bright enough to contemplate 
pre-tax profits erf at least £42m 
for the current year. That 
would produce rarninga of 30p. 
opening the way for patient 
shareholders to have a modest 
dividend rise. The shares are 
on a prospective multiple of 
14.4 at yesterday’s closing price 
of 433p. This is not particularly 
demanding if, in the longer 
term, McKechnie can build the 
muscle to make itself a global 
supplier in such sectors as 
automotive, aerospace and tele- 

By Heather Davidson 

Bradford Property down 30% 

By Simon London 

Bradford Property Trust, the 
UK’s largest tenanted property 
company, reported a fall in pre- 
tax profits to against 

217.5m, due to lower dealing 

The company raised £8.7m 
from property sales in the six 
months to October 5, against 

Bradford specialises in buy- 
ing residential properties let at 
low rents under regulated ten- 
ancies, usually at a discount to 
reflect the sitting rights of the 
tenant. When vacant posses- 
sion is achieved, the properties 

are either sold or re-let at mar- 
ket rents. 

The company said that deci- 
sions to sell or re-let when 
properties became vacant were 
driven by the quality of proper- 
ties available. This results in 
fluctuations in the level of 
riwfllfnff profits. 

Gross rental Income 
increased from £9.8m to 
£10.4m. Costs of sales, includ- 
ing repairs, refurbishment and 
the cost of properties sold were 
£6 .38m (£10.7m). 

Interest charges dropped to 
£188400 (£641,000). The interim 
dividend is increased by 10 per 
cent to 3.2p, payable from 

earnings of 5.75p (BJlp). 

Mr Philip Warner, rhah-msm, 
said that quality residential 
investment properties were 
realising higher prices in t he 
market than earlier in the year 
and that the company was 
accelerating its purchasing 
programme as a result. In Hi* 
last full year, Bradford 
increased its stock of residen- 
tial properties by only £L5m. 

In common with most other 
property groups, Bradford does 
not revalue its portfolio at the 
half-year. At the full year It 
owned properties with a mar- 
ket value of £287Jn, some 60 per 
cent of which are in London. 


We still do. 


MEET will principally invest From Asia to Latin 
America in the 25 countries contained In the 
International Finance Corporation (1FC> indices. 


Emerging markets 1 performance is shown below. 
The figures speak for themselves. 

As the frontiers of the developed world were 
pushed outward a century ago. Scottish engineers and 
entrepreneurs were at the forefront. They not only 
knew how. but also where and when. 

And now the Scots ar Murray Johnstone have decided 
that the conditions are right for Murray Emerging 

Economics Trust FLC fMEET). 


Sis of our experienced fund managers currently 
manage over *300 million in emerging markets. 
Murray Smaller Markets Trust PLC. one of the trusts 
managed by Murray Johnstone, had a third of its 
assets invested in emerging markets at its last year 
end and was the best performing trust in the AJTC 
international Capital Growth sector over 1.5 and 10 
years to 31/6/9*-* 

A /**- l «j*i5 **“ t *• 
• Ml! iSmim" / " 


So far ihLs year, emerging markets' performance 
hasn't reflected the continued underlying economic 
growth, and many emerging markets currently offer 
good value. It is also expected that there will be 
continued strong corporate earnings per share 
growth in emerging market countries. 

So, for further information and to register for this 
opportunity, contact your financial adviser, return 
the coupon or call the number below. Il is proposed 
that Lhe offer runs from 9th to 29th November. 

ud, FREEPOST. Dunoon. Aigyle PA23 8QQ ; 
Please send me the mini prospectus for M.E.E.T. ; 


M U B R A Y 

_ FT2643 • 

Postcode * ••••■•• 

* mm , , . , _ . . 

iit • 

X- , , rvminaJ and *»i«l by Murray Jofanoooe Ud ta membrr qf IMKOl fct the purpaKS of KClton S7 ctf ihe financial Services An I5»S> 

v This jclvrtilswneni guide to future Mfonucc. ind lhe price of shares and ihc Income from them may fall is wefl as rise. Inwaion. may w 

■* faal ■Xflivnaxe to nrt mVZJed. Warrants tawohw d Ugh degree of gening that a retailor smaB movement in ibe price of share* may result m a I? 

hack I he .lmourt they unfaTOUiabir a» well as* favourable, in ihe price of warrants. No ofler or invtallnn u> acquire securlihs. of Murray Emerging A 

V; jLawiwntareiirly AnV such offer or ravtnUon win be made ta a pnMpeoin u> be published m due rouse and any ™di acqutskton «■: 

' ; Ecorwrrte* TniM PW us n«n« V ■ n r ^ w , ri f wi contained ta Mich prospectus. There b no giuuawro ifcai the marina price of shares in investment vu>ts will A 
■i <w,kl t»! made solely an uie value. lnve*<orv should he aware rtur the market* In which ihfe mar will Invent tan be highly vofcnUe. imritraaNUiy a ■.*: 

*••• _ .1 ,, .mJcrivtaS S *® 1 v *“ r - , . r , in flirt VtW— — .1 irMumnl • • 

,-v should re "U* M value. invesiOffc snouiu ne aware iruu me nun™ uira, uc 

v fully rrilect rheir «i puss of oadrsnpr may anise the value of tmwtmaas w uuaude. ffci Am Value wal ren 

ii ***** ’ itua Dt,y . 

d return wtti ns dMtferabretaveaed. y 

wiwwivw ■ 

Voting plan fuels family feud 

Richard Wolffe explains the upheaval at Barr & Wallace Arnold 

W hen Nicholas and 
Robert Barr asked 
their uncle. Malcolm 

Prospect Industries, the 
engineering services company, 
has agreed to acquire the pip- 
ing systems division of Whes- 
soe for £lL7m. 

The consideration will be 
satisfied by the issue of 83.2m 
new shares to Whessoe at 14p 
apiece, which will be placed 
with institutional investors. 

Prospect also plans to raise 
£lm towards the costs of the 
acquisition and placing with 
tine issue of 7.07m new ordi- 
nary shares at the same price. 

Qualifying shareholders will 
be invited to apply for 69.4m 
shares on a l-for-3 basis. 

The piping systems division 
of Whesoe trades as Alton in 
the UK and Connex in the US. 
and is involved in the design 
and manufacture of p i p e w o rhs 
for nuclear and fossil fuelled 
power generation plants. For 
the 10-month period to July 31 
it incurred an operating loss of 
22.7m on turnover of £22. 7m. 

According to Whessoe, this 
was the result of a lack of 
orders, an unsuitable product 
mix and contractual delays. 
Prospect’s directors attribute 
its poor performance to reloca- 
tion and management changes 
at Connex, and believe the 
division is "already recovering 
from these setbacks”. 

The piping systems business 
has a large, under-used fabri- 
cation plant in Derby. 

Prospect intends to move its 
UK repair, maintenance and 
piping businesses onto this 
site, and to integrate the man- 
agement and purchasing of its 
new acquisition with one of its 
operating companies. Dmm. 

Mr Philip Wilbraham, chair- 
man of Prospect, said it was a 
“unique opportunity for the 
company to expand its market- 
place from a reduced cost 

W hen Nicholas and 
Robert Barr asked 
their uncle, Malcolm 
Barr, to stand down as chair- 
man of Barr & Wallace Arnold 
Trust, the company's fate 
seemed to hang on the out 
come of a family feud. 

Like all family rows, the 
Bairs’ brawl over the leisure 
and motor group has its roots 
in the post. But both camps 
claim they want to modernise 
the company with a new corpo- 
rate strategy and enfranchise- 
ment of the non-voting A 
shares, held almost entirely by 

The brothers, who speak for 
30 per cent of the ordinary 
shares, which enjoy voting 
rights, have played havoc with 
the retirement plans of their 
67-year-old uncle. 

Malcolm Barr, who is also 
chair man of the Leeds Perma- 
nent building society, had 
overhauled his management 
team and planned to rid thp 
company of its anachronistic 
two-tier share structure. 

“The whole exercise is very 
much part of a management 
plan and obviously I am a part 
of that,” he said. *T am 68 in 
December and, at some stage, 
am looking forward to retire- 

“I think enfranchisement 
will do a lot for the company 
and a lot for the family. I do 
not t hink that good profes- 
sional management like to be 
locked into companies with the 
two-tier structure because they 
cannot expand the company 

In May, Malcolm Barr, who 
speaks for 16 per cent of the 
ordinary shares, appointed an 
outsider, John Parker, as chief 
executive. Mr Parker in turn 
appointed a new finance direc- 
tor, Brian Srnan. 

Last month Barr & Wallace 
reported a 40 per cent rise in 
pretax profits to £928400 for 
the first half of 1994 on turn- 
over 15 per cent up at £124m. 

Generation gap: Robert (left) and Nicholas Barr - at loggerheads with their uncle, Malcolm Barr 

Two weeks ago the brothers 
called an EGM to unseat both 
Mr Parker and Mr Small. They 
claimed majority support 
among voting shareholders, 
iupiuriing the backing of Kerry 
Firth, a Barnsley-based busi- 
nessman who owns 16 per cent 
of the ordinary shares. 

The board countered by call- 
ing a second EGM to discuss 
enfranchisement of the A 


A document, including pro- 
posals for a 1-for-l scrip issue 
for ordinary shareholders, is 
imminent. At present there are 
2.45m ordinary shares and 
945m A shares. The plan 
would reduce family control - 
albeit warring - from about 55 
to IS per cent 

While the brothers say they 
support enfranchisement, they 
have pledged to vote against 
the plans while the present 
board remains intact. 

Barr & Wallace Arnold was 
founded in 1908 by Malcolm 
Barr's father. Far years Mal- 
colm ran the company with his 
brother Stuart, who was man- 
aging director. 

However, the balance of fam- 
ily power changed two years 
ago when Stuart, father of 
Nicholas and Robert, died. His 
sister, Margaret Hook, left the 
board through ill-health. 

Flotation likely to place 
£80m tag on Ashbourne 

By Tim Burt 

Ashbourne Holdings, the 
nursing home operator 
acquired last year In a £50m 
management buy-out from 
Stakis, the hotels and casino 
group, yesterday said its forth- 
coming flo t ati on would value 
the company at more than 

The management buy-out 
team, which admitted it had 
purchased the business "at a 
very good price”, aims to raise 
about £5Qm from the placing 
and open offer. 

Funds raised win be used to 
wipe out the group's £47.8m 
borrowings, enabling it to 
build new homes and buy 
development sites with jE &fin of 
fresh borrowing. 

The pathfinder prospectus, 
published yesterday, showed 
operating profits from the 
existing 19-home portfolio 

increased from £5. 49m to 
£6 J2m during the 12 months to 
October 2. 

Interest payments of £5 19m 
(£3. 05m), however, led to a 
sharp fall in pre-tax profits 
from £3.4m to £Llflm, on turn- 
over up 9 per cent at £23Jjm. 

At the operating level, the 
group enjoyed profit margins 
of 26 per cent and Mr Tom 
Hamilton, chief executive, said 
its high proportion of private 
patients promised further 

He and fellow directors - 
who invested £200,000 at the 
buy-out stage - should see the 
value of their holding increase 
to between £2m and £2.4m if 
the issue is fully taken up. 

“It looks a big ratio increase, 
but the existing shareholders 
will not be selling their 
stakes," said Mr Lawrence 
Guthrie of Charterhouse Bank, 
sponsors to the float 

notice of 


Tb Ibe botten of any ManUei fer 

COMPANY OP NEW YOR 1 C tetri it 
ebbex trustee. New York paying agent. 
New Yrakconcnioa agent. New Yodc 
registrar, New Yotkwctaofeateat, New 
York transfer agent, or in any other 
agency capacity in New York. NOTICE 

« hereby given that, effective «■ of Sep- 
tember Z 1994 , MORGAN GUAR- 
YORK bat rescued and transferred in 
U.S. corporate treat function* n, and bra 

beta mrr rft M nc i|^ifqfn|y {g 

New York agent by. FIRST TRUST OP 
TION. 100 WaS Street Suite 160 U New 
York. New York 10005 . 

i— iH—g asaodarioQ with rapi> 
tilnaiioo of SlOOWm, it a wtoUy^ 
owned operating w li t M hiyorFtat Bank 
National Atirt-i a ri tai. Ibe primary bwik- 
tag nfcridUry of Ftnt Bank Syrian, Esc. 
Dated; October 20 1994 






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■ Baaldig A Finance - Enarpy 
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Within a year Nicholas Barr 
had resigned as development 
director of the motor division 
which his father had built up. 
In July, the group sold its leas- 
ing wing. Trust Leasing, for 
£2.l5m to Robert Barr, its man- 
aging director. The brothers 
now run the leasing company, 
renamed Barr & Barr. 

“To some degree we were 
suppressed in the company, 
probably by the fact that it was 
a family company and the 
senior generation was intact 
until my father died two years 
ago,” said Nicholas Barr. 

“There was a degree of frus- 
tration. waiting for the day 
when you might get the reins. 
But we do not want to take it 
back into the dark ages of 
being a family company.” 

The brothers’ strategy Is to 
split the leisure operation from 
the motor division. Trust 
Motors, and run them as stand- 
alone companies. Nicholas 
Barr would be chief executive 
of the group, with responsibil- 
ity for the motor business, 
while his brother would run 
the leisure company. 

Yesterday they appointed 
NM Rothschild as advisers and 
named Sir David Rowe-Ham. 
former Lord Mayor of London, 
as chairman-designate. 

“We saw the motor distribu- 

tion business grow In the 1970s 
into the tenth largest in the 
UK and now it stands at about 
thirtieth." said Nicholas Barr. 
“There is a lot of opportunity, 
but our feeling is that Trust 
Motors will not have a chance 
to benefit while the holiday 
business uses capital to 
acquire hotels.” 

The board, however, says the 
divisions are complementary. 
In terms of cashflow, the 
deposits on leisure bookings 
help to fund stocks at the 
motor division. 

“When there are high inter- 
est rates, leisure does quite 
well because the average age of 
our passengers is 65, and they 
live on their pensions,” said Mr 
Parker. “High Interest rates 
also mean people do not buy a 
lot of cars because it costs a lot 
of money to fund them.” The 
board rejects c laims that it has 
ignored the motor division by 
pointing to its £3j56m acquisi- 
tion of a Mercedes dealership 
in Bristol in August. There are 
plans for another two or three 
acquisitions on the motor side. 

In January, Malcolm Barr 
retires from his chairmanship 
of Leeds Permanent The ques- 
tion remains whether he will 
still be fthwirman of the com- 
pany which bears his family 


JJB chief to net £13.5m 
from stock market debut 

By Christopher Price 

Mr David Whelan, chairman of 
JJB Sports, the re tailing group 
due to come to the market next 
month, will make around 
£13 An from the flotation. 

JJB, which Mr Whelan 
founded in 1971, is the UK’s 
largest independent sports 
retailer, operating 115 
branches. The float will 
involve the Issue of some 30m 
new shares and the placing of 
about 35 per cent, which 
should raise approximately 
£22m, £8.5m of which will be 
new money. Mr Whelan and 
his family interests will retain 
63.4 per cent 

According to the pathfinder 
prospectus published yester- 
day. the board is forecasting 
operating profits on continuing 
operations for the year ending 
January 31 1995 of not less 
than £6. 5m. Last year the 

group achieved £4.71m on turn- 
over of £41.2m. For the six 
months to July 31, profits were 
Eg.54.m on turnover of £24J3m. 
Historic earnings per share for 
the year to January 31 1993 
were 12.4p. 

JJB - which has a key-man 
insurance policy on Mr Whelan 
worth £lm - will use the cash 
injection to pay for its recent 
move to new premises and look 
for acquisitive opportunities in 
the sports retailing market 

Mr Whelan said he would 
use the proceeds of the sale to 
invest in other areas of the 
stock market 

Remuneration for Mr Whe- 
lan and his five fellow direc- 
tors will amount to a basic sal- 
ary of £50,000 each plus 0.5 per 
cent of profits before tax 

Impact day. when the shares 
will be priced, is scheduled for 
November 11. with dealings 
beginning one week latex. 

Financial Regulation Report 

is a monthly service Tram ihc Financial 
Times. Ii provide* subscriber, with up-io- 
doc Bint thorough infonnmiun on wuriUwhfc 
regulatory developments itmJ their 
implications for the financial services iiktairy. 

Written by professional experts, 

FT-Finn octal Regnlnlhm Report: 

• describes and somiruriroi new 
regulations and legislation: 

• explains authoritatively bui 
intelligibly lhe meaning and 
purpose of new regulations, 
pulling diem in their 
international context: 

comments on the implications 
for the rnarids concerned ■ 
whether short - or mctlium-lcrm 
crctlii. long-term debt, equities 
or derivatives. The vital question 
of lhe competitive position of 
market player* is regularly 

With increasing market stresses and the 
accelerating pace uf tegulaimy change it U 
simply not sale policy lobe underinformed. 

To receive a FREE 
sample copy contact: 

Simi Bonsai, 

Financial Times Newsletters, 
MaAering Department, Third Fluor, 
Number One Soulhwari Bridge . 
London SEI 9HL, England'. 
Tel: (+44 71 ) 871 3795 
Fox: (+44 71) S73 3935 

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EU farm ministers agree to cut cereals set-aside 

By Alison Maitland 

European agriculture ministers 
last night agreed to reduce the 
amount of land that arable 
fanners are obliged to take out 
of production from is per cent 
to 12 per cent 

The move to cut set-aside, 
the single most unpopular 
aspect of the 1992 common 
agricultural policy reforms, is 

expected to please French and 
British cereal farmers who 
have been vociferous tn 
demapdipB a reduction. French 
farmers demonstrated as min- 
isters began their meeting on 
Monday, urging a cut of at 
least s per cent 
The National Farmers' Union 
in England and Wales had 
warned that EU cereal produc- 
ers could have difficulty main- 

taining their markets if set* 
aside remained at 15 per cent 
Mr William Waldegrave. UK 
agriculture minister, said 
Britain had accepted the Lux- 
embourg council decision on 
the basis that it would be neu- 
tral for the CAP budget 
The European Commission 
earlier this month proposed a 
reduction of 2 percentage 
points following a fall in cereal 

stocks from 33m tonnes to I4xn 
tonnes in the past year and 
two lower harvests in the wake 
of the MacS harry reforms. 

The 3-point reduction will 
apply for next year only, and 
the level of set-aside will revert 
to 15 per cent the following 
year unless member states 
decide a further change. 

EU cereals output is expec- 
ted to drop significant Ly this 

year to around 162 m tonnes, 
compared with harvests of 
about iS5m tonnes before the 
reforms were implemented. 

The reforms were aimed at 
curbing overproduction 
through cuts in support prices 
of 30 per cent over three years, 
and through set-aside. This 
was designed to go up or down 
depending on whether output 
targets were being reached 

Mr Ren§ Steichen, farm com- 
missioner, said strong world 
market prices, plus the CAP 
reforms, had left EU cereal 
prices higher than desired, He 
forecast a net increase in grain 
output of asm tonnes after yes- 
terday's decision. 

Co mmission offi cials said the 
decision could he implemented 
only after the European Parlia- 
ment gave its opinion. 

International plant ‘genebanks’ come under UN auspices 

By John Madetey 
in Washington 

An agreement will be signed in 
Washington today to place 
some of the world’s most 
important collections of plant 
genetic resources under the 
auspices of the United Nations 
Food and Agricultural Organi- 

The collections, known as 
“genebanks", are housed in 12 
research centres in Africa, 

Asia and Latin America but 
are funded by the Consultative 
Group on International Agri- 
cultural Research, a network 
of 43 public and private sector 

The centres concentrate 
their research on the world's 
most important staple foods, 
including rice, wheat, maize 
and other cereals. Together 
they hold 500,000 different sam- 
ples of plants, which are vital 
for breeding crops of the 


This accounts for some 35 
per cent of all the world's col- 
lection. They include 80.000 
rice samples at the Interna- 
tional Rice Research Institute 
in the Philippines and 35,000 
wheat samples at the Interna- 
tional Maize and Wheat 
Improvement Centre In 

Following the signing of the 
Biodiversity Convention at the 
earth summit in Rio in 1992 

there has been confusion about 
the legal status of the gene- 

Countries that donate sam- 
ples to the genebanks feared 
that they might not benefit 
from any breeding improve- 
ments to their samples. But 
the new agreement legally 
brings the genebanks under 
the Biodiversity Convention 
and puts donors of samples in 
a position where they could 

Mr Geoffrey Kawtin, director 
of the International Plant 
Genetic Resources Institute, 
said the agreement "resolves 
the status of the collections 
held in the centres' genebanks; 
it will mean they continue to 
be freely available for breeding 
and use.” 

The agreement allows the 12 
research centres to become 
legal trustees of the collections 
they house and could pave the 
way for other international 

Tractor import plan draws fire of Pakistani manufacturers 

Cheap eastern European machines are seen locally as unfair competition, writes Farhan Bokhan 

A large front page adver- annual sale of about 16,000 to reverse its decision to stop every year. “They don't neces- work that has sprung up vate tractor dealers at office 

tlsement in a local tractors. official credit for the purchase sarily have to make large prof- across this country over the not too for from Millat Trat 

newspaper says it alL These companies, together of locally assembled tractors, its.” past two decades, which can tors outside Lahore, the capita 

A large front page adver- 
tisement in a local 
newspaper says it alL 
"Please stop the impart of trac- 
tors and save Pakistani tractor 
industry,” it reads. 

Pakistan’s tractor industry is 
fighting a populist plan by the 
government of Ms Benazir 
Bhutto, the prime minister, 
that would give tractors 
imported from Poland and 
Belarus to farmers at low 

The plan, for importing up to 

60.000 tractors by next year at 
a cost of Rs9bn (US$88 .8m). is 
set to create at least a mini- 
boom for tractor producers in 
the two former communist 
countries. But in P akistan, the 
local industry strongly resist- 
ing the plan, arguing that it 
would lead to large scale losses 
for the two larger local produc- 
ers - Fiat and Massey Ferg- 
uson, which together account 
for up to 90 per cent of the 

annual sale of about 16,000 

These companies, together 
with smaller factories that 
manufacture some of the 
spares, are also opposing an 
official decision to set aside all 
government loans for the pur- 
chase of imported tractors 
only. They argue that there 
would be no government- 
backed credits left to allow 
fanners to purchase their trac- 
tors. Up to 90 per cent of the 
tractors sold in the local mar- 
ket in recent years have been 
bought on such loans, which 
are repayable over an 8 year 

*Tf the government does not 
allow us to participate in the 
plan, the entire tractor indus- 
try will receive a severe jolt” 
says Mr Sikandar Khan, Chair- 
man, Millat Tractors, the man- 
ufacturer of Massey Ferguson 
machin es in Pakistan. Mr 
Qian is urging the government 

to reverse its decision to stop 
official credit for the purchase 
of locally assembled tractors, 
even if the price is higher than 
the imported tractors. 

"Farmers must be given a 
choice," he insists. “If they like 
our tractors, they will buy 

S o far, the government has 
refused to accede to the 
local industry's demand 
unless they can sell their 50 
horsepower tractors for under 
Rsl50,000. But neither Fiat nor 
Massey Ferguson is willing to 
sen these machines at under 
Rs230,000, arguing that any Fur- 
ther cuts would result in huge 

“The local industry should 
also take its profits down," 
says Mr Makhdoom Altai Hus- 
sain, finance minister of the 
province of Punjab, which 
absorbs more than half of the 
new tractors sold in Pakistan 

every year. “They don't neces- 
sarily have to make large prof- 

Privately, senior government 
officials contest the industry's 
claim and argue that there is 
room for further price cuts. 
They also say that a drastic 
rise in the price of tractors dur- 
ing the past decade has made it 
increasingly difficult for farm- 
ers to buy new machines and 

However, tractor factory 
executives such as Mr Khan 
and representatives of tractor 
dealers’ associations are confi- 
dent that even if their prices 
are higher than Poland’s or 
Belarus's, farmers will prefer 
to buy their tractors rather 
than imported ones, provided 
there is no discrimination in 
the availability of official 

This confidence is partly jus- 
tified by the well established 
repair and maintenance net- 

work that has sprung up 
across this country over the 
past two decades, which can 
serve the' needs of Fiat and 
Massey Ferguson tractors. 

Some tractor dealers concede 
that the new tractors may not 
have a long-term future in 
Pakistan, in the absence of 
similar repair networks. In a 
country where literacy is low 
and few tractor mechanics are 
properly trained, there is little 
prospect that repair shops will 
be set up as the new tractors 
start arriving. 

The controversy has also 
once again exposed the oppor- 
tunities for the abuse of tractor 
credit given by the govern- 
ment Senior bankers say pri- 
vately that up to 60 per cent of 
the tractor loans have never 
been fully repaid within their 
time limit 

Evidence of that abuse is 
also visible at dealers' show- 
rooms across the country. Pri- 



Precious Metals continued 

■ OOLDCOMEXfIOOTroyaL; S/troy oz.) 


■ WHEAT LCE (S per two) 


W COCOA ICE (Ptowne) 


■ UVE CATTLE CM£ (40000bx canb/ft*) 

(Mom from Amalgamated Metal Hating) 
m ALUMINIUM, va7 POWTY (S per tonne) 


. price 






to« M 

390.0 aa 




104 JO 


ttuato -Bab low 
- 10428 10450 







prtca i 






Low tat 

930 21266 




Sett Daft CpM . 

prtca dunga Wot Low tat - 

69.725 -4X425 70260 63550 «4 




3 rains 




- . 





- 10070 10050 







901 42524 



68575 -05SO 69.150 66.400 31583 









3907 82901 



■ IIML65 

-025 16000 10850 







975 1451! 



66525 -0300 69250 68575 19.184 









3WJ 19288 




-025 11150 11090 







960 6209 



65275 -0.150 65500 65200 12583 



1762/1 73S 





3903 8.196 











1005 1Z418 



64.425 0.125 64725 64.400 3788 


AM Official 







4012 9.862 











1025 8536 



65250 -0.150 65550 85250 1,373 


Kerb dose 



157,448 10980 





110958 2,836 


0^351 17,25B 

Open lot 267.749 

Total dafly turnover 49,549 

■ ALUMffHUM ALLOY ff per tonne) 

Close 1720-5 

Pnsvtaa 1705-10 

Wflh/taw 1710 

AM Official 1706-9 

Kerb dose 

Qaenlnt 2,959 

Total dolly turnover 923 

■ LEAP |$ per tonne) 

Close 6445-5.5 

Previous 646.5-7.5 

WoMow 847.5 

AM OflWal 647-75 

Kerb dose 

Open mt. 41JB95 

Total dally turnover 5.484 

1 MCKELg per tonne) 

M PIATHUM NYMEX(50 Troy o sj ttroy ta) 

Oct 4214 -03 4200 4244 SB 41 

Jn 4254 -03 4200 424.1 20352 1,491 

Apr 429.7 -03 4315 4295 3.553 fl 

Jar 4345 - 947 2 

Oct 4385 +0.7 - - 358 

An 4415 +07 - - 2 - 

ToM 20298 1532 

■ PALLADIUM WVMEX (100 Troy oz4 S/troy ttt) 

One 15750 +-155 15850 15850 4502 271 

Mar 159.00 +155 15000 15000 1520 20 

•tan 16050 +1.46 16050 15050 388 106 

TeW 0498 403 

m SILVER OQMEX ft 00 Troy QE.; Centn/tnoy tej 

Oct 5295 -2.1 . • 108 8 

He* 5295 -02 

Dec 5325 -02 8375 531-5 75533 10,783 

534.8 -25 5415 5365 73 

■ WHEAT CUT pnoobu min: cents/60lto bushel) M COCOA CSCE (10 tonnes S/tawies) 

■ UVE HOQS CME (40500Bu; centsflba) 

Dec 4000 -4/0 40374 3984) 39.430 11.204 

M«r 410/2 -410 41516 406/4 23,575 3,478 

May 385/4 +-5/B 39116 384/4 4597 387 

JM 353H -312 35413 351/4 8501 928 

Sep 358/4 -1/4 350/4 358/0 232 3 

Dec 385/2 -2/2 387/4 365/2 138 7 

Total 77579 16,085 

■ MAIZE C8T (5.000 bu ffltn; oQTtsSflfc txiahel) 

Dec ZlSf* -M5 217/4 21510122039 31505 
Mar 22&M -MB 228/4 228/2 58,298 6.401 

May 2350 -1/6 238/0 2340 25,131 2506 

M 24010 -1/4 242/2 24Q/2 29592 2500 

Sep 2450 -1/4 247/4 245/2 2 463 191 

Dec 250/0 -MO 251/0 250/2 12565 1.130 

Total 251 520 44,770 

Dec 1320 -ID 1339 1312 27590 3527 

W 1360 -10 1383 1350 22582 1.284 

May 1393 -10 1413 1388 0581 122 

JM 1430 -0 1422 1415 3.027 

Sep 1447 -9 1582 61 

OK 1474 -15 1490 1475 4585 5 

TeW 71/37 $545 

33.400 -0.175 34400 31350 51 2Z7 

36550 -0550 37.150 38500 18553 3.793 

36-725 +0.125 37.150 36.700 7520 830 

42.100 -0.100 42500 42000 4.132 341 

41.700 +0575 41500 41500 1,764 110 

38550 -0575 38500 38550 318 18 

COCOA 0CCO) (SDR's/tannqj 

■ FORK JM9UJSS CME (aaOOOb* twrasflba) 

PMca Rea: day 
980.49 98526 

M COFFEE LCE (S/tame) 

a BAHLEY LCE (E per tome) 



AM Official 

Kert> dose 

Open Hit. 

Total daily turnover 

M UN (S par tome) 



















AM CWicU* 



Kerb cum 


Open on. 

f 7.050 

Total tLifly turnover 


■ ZINC. BfwchJ high oracle ($ per tonne] 





1061 -a 




AM omcka 



Koib close 


Often InL 


Total dajlv turnover 


■ COPPER, grade A (S per lomel 










AM Official 



Kerb close 


Open ml 


Total daily turnover 






+0.15 101 BO 101 35 



l 1*563 




+030 10110 10335 



< 4.684 




+035 10630 10675 







+605 10675 10675 






















3568 11255 1,401 






























-0325 40730 36450 





-0825 40850 36360 





-0900 42.100 40775 





-1200 42600 41200 





-1250 - 40700 






Total 35738 2573 

a COFFEE ■C’ CSCE (375000m; coma/fca) 

Dec 195.45 -1-30 19580 19450 13507 4590 


Strike price $ tome — Csfia — — Puts — 


a CauOE OIL NYMEX (42.000 US gate. S/taanM) 

a SOYABEANS CUT tSJQBm iota; canS/OTb taateQ 

Sett Dayi 
price change Hull 

1746 *0-1 3 1740 
1741 +059 1742 
1748 +047 1740 

1747 +007 1746 

1746 +056 1743 

1747 -058 1740 

tear tat 
1745 >11.120 
17.44 01580 
17A8 38568 
17.43 23506 
17.46 17582 
17.48 11,723 





546/6 43J41 






558/4 39288 






S6W4 22210 






578/? 10.187 






von 1723 a 







5B7AJ 1,153 51 

1«L488 52/077 

19545 -1.30 19940 19450 13507 4590 

20040 -1.15 205-00 200.00 12543 1538 

202.55 -ISO 20750 20250 4.737 308 

202.75 -225 20850 20525 1.600 44 

20350 -250 20525 20350 893 21 

28250 -240 20340 20340 844 

3M86 8,712 

a COFFEE (ICO) (US centa/pound) 

a SOYABEAN OB- GST (60,000(bai oants/lb) 
Dec 2541 -052 2024 2578 33,743 11 

■ CRUDE OIL (PE (ttwrrol) 

UK Bay* open 

Price donga Mgh loo M VM 

1537 -503 18.45 1523 87404 20504 

1528 -Q53 1655 1521 31500 6,787 

1022 -004 1628 1618 12218 1,687 

1613 -007 1052 1610 0582 35 

18.11 -005 1019 1008 3.709 165 

16.09 -057 16)0 1600 2573 

156200 26488 

Dec 2541 -052 2854 25-78 33,743 11531 

Jtn 2441 -026 2557 24.80 13.804 4525 

Mir 3L48 -ft IB 2473 24.45 10043 2.471 

Hay 24.14 -OOfl 2454 24.12 11,121 603 

JM 2351 -050 24.12 2350 7.415 736 

tag 2340 -045 2345 2390 2,148 ? 

TOW 8SAZ7 19581 

a SOVABEAM MEAL CBT C100 torn; S/ten) 

Oct 24 Price Prev. day 

CotPl daSy 18155 18652 

15 euramaw 18857 18755 

■ No7 PREMIUM RAW SUGAR LCE feentn/ttra) 

(9S.794J LME 




(Grade A) LME 








Mar Oec Ma- 

112 33 68 

98 44 70 

08 SB 02 

Mar Deo Mar 
121 47 98 

98 B9 124 
73 07 153 

Jan Nov Jen 
272 8 239 

240 11 268 

230 18 207 


H % _ 















- 1096 1096 290 








- 450 














JM 1241 


a WHITE SUGAR LCE (Sltnnne) 

a HEATING OIL HVMfX (42400 US flat!: dUB gaBaJ 
SMI Day* Dpan 

Dec 1834 -84 1652 1630 43401 8424 

Jn 1644 -14 1662 164.7 1643 a 1492 

Her 168.4 -09 168.7 168.1 144*1 1422 

May 1714 -04 1734 1714 6.105 720 

M 1104 -14 177.2 1763 6403 1438 

tag 1784 -14 1783 1780 1,172 128 

TOW 06495 13472 

34800 +050 34840 34740 3,148 233 

34130 +140 34Z40 33940 0480 825 

33040 +1.10 348.70 337-50 2132 308 

337.00 +140 33740 33840 2479 122 

316.00 +0.70 - 696 

31440 +8.70 4 

17438 1,489 


1850 1 II 


W 17 M 

53 43 S3 

41 77 41 


a CRUDE OIL FOB (per barroVDec) +or 

■ LME AM OflkW E/S rate; 1.0388 
LME dosing OS rate: 1.8358 

Spot 3 irate 6 INK 9 BOS 





dong* Jflgfc (gw 





♦1.70 171.06 11655 





*1.80 11600 119.00 





+12S I167D 11720 















+120 11760 110.15 






SMI Dq/a 
price change 10 M> 

to 4040 +0.14 40.55 

Dec 49.75 +042 4885 

Jan 5053 +830 504S 

M 5073 +033 SOSO 

Bar 5043 +033 5050 

Apr 4868 +033 


■ POTATOES LCE (E/tonne) 

SUGAR IV CSCE (1 IZ.WXWw; cents/lba) 

48.63 17,125 
4840 44455 
4860 32/659 
S02S 10,102 
5000 11434 
- 6479 

1504 .... 

105.0 .... 

2220 +15 2220 2204 1498 

2404 .... 

1074 .... 

1278 -041 12.70 1240 35.109 84*5 

1269 -OOZ 1278 1201 23.101 14 72 

1256 -002 12J65 1243 14410 722 

122) - 1224 1212 12437 410 

1102 +042 1148 1140 1.784 45 

1142 +042 43 


Dubai Sl5.38-5.44z >0.336 

a rent Blend (dated} $16.74-078 +034 

Brwn Blend (Dec) Sib. 63-6. B8z +032 

W.T.1. (1pm est) S1746-7.58Z +0.11 

M OB. PRODUCTS NWEprornpt delivery OF (tome) 

■ GAS Ofl. ffE (Stoma} 

Sett Day's 

lake change Hgb Lew 


W 1M 


(Prices nmpflad by N U HothacMq) 



- 152.00 16040 26144 




- 15340 15100 23.720 




-025 154.75 15340 20470 




-025 155.75 15500 7J86 




-OZS 18650 15600 6955 




-C25 1S42S 15340 2298 





■ NATURAL QAS V/NEX fmOOO amfim; s/mmsii.) 















m coi 



71 88 






7023 22.709 













7120 1X445 













7255 67E 













73JQ 4J06S 














70 00 





earn sa? 

6925 2232 






49SS7 9JB0 

Premium Gasolne 
Gee OB 
Heavy Hal 03 
Naphtha • 

Jet fuel 








Mrotoum Argus. TV. London prsj 360 *788 

a PRANCE JMCE IWCE (15400lba; ccnta/ttw) 

GokKTroy oi) 
Marneg Ire 
Afternoon ft* 

Day's High 
Ddy'9 Low 
Pnwtous dose 
Loco Ldn Mean 

1 month 

2 nwnma — 

3 months 

S price Cequfv. 


389.60 234.142 

38820 237426 




Gold LentSng rtatas (Va L/3S) 

..-4.54 S months .—..5.1! 

4j 54 12 months - 84E 


Sea Daft Open 

price Mange Kph Low Wt Voi 

16(7 +0013 2-040 1430 1J945 38.095 

2.IH2 -0J301 8130 2040 3&58B 18J03 

1405 +OOM 2460 8000 18380 1335 

1.942 +0.001 2XGS 1550 12.423 2.000 

1-890 -0.001 1440 1000 12224 1,017 

1.832 4003 1530 1510 5.706 517 

138419 BSJSB 

10265 -260 10525 10175 4.099 1.QB8 

105.60 -2.75 109.60 10900 11.I3S 1420 

10855 -250 11260 10900 3213 470 

11110 -200 11500 11325 1238 12 

11000 -2.75 11650 118.00 850 0 

11050 -270 - - 543 59 

24,788 3,164 

SAvor Fta 

p/troy oz. 

US CO equtv. 






3 nwwhs 




6 nronlte 




i year 





S price 

C eCUhr. 






Maple Loot 



New Sovereign 


fjrt fjl 


WNEX (*2000 US gMv c/IB pah) 

SMt Oet/tt Open 

price duipo Hgb Um M Vnl 

war 9240 - 5250 50.75 12605 12846 

Dec 5828 -0.03 56.45 6733 22507 11070 

Jao 5548-009 56.10 5520 14.752 4.75? 

Fell S4J0 - 0.10 54.60 54.15 6^22 947 

Mr 54.65 -0.10 54JS 5440 2555 46Q 

Nr SSUS -004 - - 4.478 <92 

Tow 89850 33,700 

Mkwr Metals 

European free mariuL from Metal BuOeun, $ 
per b In wgrenouse, uncsa othanvlae owed 
Oast week's in pockets, where chanped). AnS- 
mony: 09.636. S jw tonne. 5.770^915 (5.760- 
5^70. Sfemutfc min. 99.99(6. tonne tola 3.00- 

4.00 (3.65-4.00). Cadmium: min. 89.596. 
185-200 (200-215) cents a pound. Cobalt: MB 
Me market. 99.696, 28503750 (27-50-3150); 
99.3%. 2400-34.90 (2S -50-26. 75). Mercury; 
min. 99.99%. S per 76 16 OaMt. 110*135. 
Matybdenum; drummed matyixSe oxide. 4.70- 

5.00 (4.10430). SefenbflM r.* 1 995%. 035- 
465 (3J35-4.65L Tungstan orm standard min. 
S&%. 5 per tonne unit (10ha) WO, Ml, 45-55. 
VonadtuiR min. 9896. df, 1.95-1. Sa Uranium: 
Nuexco exchange value, 7-00. 


Open interest and Volume data shown for 
contracts traded on DOMEX, NYMEX, COT. 
NYCE. CME, CSCE and IPE Crude Oil ora ana 
day In arrears. 


■ REUTERS (Bas« 1 e/a/31 »1 00) 

Oc* 25 Oct 24 month ago year ago 

2093.4 2071.7 2 21111 15553 

■ CRB Fubirwe (Baeo: 1967=100) 

Oct 24 Oct 21 month ago year ago 

233.04 23143 232-24 210-64 

Gold (par tray az)$ 
S*ver (per tray 
PteOnum Iber tray oa) 
PaHacfium (per troy oi) 
Copper (US prod) 

Lead (US prod) 

Tin (Kua/a Lumpur) 

Tto (New Vort^ 

Cattle (five wMght)t 
Sh«p (llva wslghTJt* 
Hgs (Bvo weight] 

Lon. day sugar (fan) 
Lon. day sugar (wta) 
Tale 8 Lyle reqwrt 
Barley (Eng. teed) 

Mato? (US Nb3 YeAjw) 
Wheal (US Dark North) 

Rubber 63ec}V 
Rubber (KL RS3 Nol Ju4 
Coccnuf 02 (Phflft 
Palm 06 (Malay.)? 

Copra (PW)§ 

SayabeoM (US) 

Codon Ouflook'A' Max 
Woattopa (84a Super) 

£ per tonne unteis eOmiw sated, p ptnpallg). e eaoMb 
r lUMgMkg. m Urtnfim 00*1/1*9. t QetfDee. * NoWDec- 11 
Oafl*yt. z Dots- ( Nov. f London fhftUaL 5 OF ftenor- 
ftnrv. 3 BiMon «*«« etose. * (lire eelsM fMeosi. ■ 
Change «n <maK O Mm am tar pmvtoua 1%. 

Australian crop 
gloom deepens as 
drought persists 

By Nikki Tat to Sydney 

and national collections of 
plant samples to be placed 
under a similar arrangement 
It will be signed at the annual 
meeting of the CGIAR, which 
is being held this week, by the 
group’s ch a i rpi aT 1 , T^maii Sera* 
geldin, and Mo hamed Zehni, of 
the FAO. 

“These genetic resources will 
be invaluable in the applica- 
tion of science for the benefit 
of the world's poor.” said Ur 

vate tractor dealers at offices 
not too for from Millat Trac- 
tors outside Lahore, the capital 
of Punjab, offer both Fiat and 
Massey Ferguson tractors for 
up to 15 per cent less than the 
price offered by the local man- 
ufacturers. In all such cases, 
the only catch is that the trac- 
tors offered were originally 
bought under a government 
agricultural loan and not 
meant to be resold for up to 8 

Local businessmen opposed 
to the government's plan say 
that the new tractor scheme 
will only further encourage the 
abuse of such credits. In one 
year alone, the import of GO, 000 
tractors, or four times the 
number sold here each year, 
will allow more people to seek 
government credits. “Tho 
abuse will only be more 
hecause there will be more 
opportunities to do just that," 
says one. 

Official forecasts for 
Austr alian wheat production 
were lowered again yesterday, 
because of tbe continuing 
drought, which is crippling key 
growing areas on the east 
coast. The country’s overall 
winter crop production is now 
expected to be the smallest for 
1 2 years. 

According to the Australian 
Bureau of Agriculture and 
Resource Economics, the gov- 
ernment forecasting and 
research agency total winter 
crop production is likely to 
more than halve from last 
year’s 28 . 2 m tonnes, to just 
13.03m tonnes. Wheat produc- 
tion, meanwhile, is forecast to 
be a mere &3m tonnes. 

If the latter prediction proves 
correct, this will be the small- 
est harvest since 1972-73 and a 
reduction of over 50 per cent 
on the 1993-04 figure. A bare 
had already cut its forecast for 
winter crop production several 
times, as key planting seasons 
were missed. It said that the 
latest predictions reflected the 
continued deterioration tn 
cropping conditions in all 
major Australian regions and 
an expectation that rainfall 
would remain below average 


Base metals prices rally 

Base metals prices were back 
on their upward track by the 
end of London Metal Exchange 
afternoon trading. 

A strong NICKEL market in 
the after hours “kerb" session 
ushered in impressive rises in 
contracts in the final minutes, 
traders said. 

“It was all largely technical," 
one Mid. “A lot of tbe longs 
were shaken out earlier. Once 
there was no further selling, 
speculators were happy to take 
it on again.” 

Nickel’s strength followed a 
successful attempt to hold 
above 97.000 a tonne for three 
months delivery. Covering and 
stop-loss orders carried it to 

Compiled from Reuters 

a at Mondays drew) 


A/urn/nfam Jtay 






-32J/5 lo 2,086,650 
+20 to 25.680 
-1.62S la 336.776 
+2,525 to 372.650 
+672 io Mama 
-3+400 to 1,336,175 
+15 to 3 1235 


No.8,594 Set by PROTEUS 

I 1 I WM I" I 1 I" 



1 Gossip about defence matters? 

5 Car one has to go round part 
of Scottish island (6) 

10 Novice In poor shape on bot- 
tom deck (5) 

11 Angry about baring to make 
transition (5,4) 

12 Brief respite sometimes 
needed by snooker player 

13 Rove at large on the moun- 
tains (5) 

14 FU of the sulks when every- 
body gets in bed (6) 

15 Detail nobleman to follow sol- 
dier (7) 

18 Profess to give prior care? (7) 

20 Proceed to make restoration 

22 When firm, has something 
worth having <5) 

24 Make denunciations until 
fame is won? (9) 

25 Greens end run on bears (9) 

26 Object lo night out (5) 

27 The sway of tbe rubbish-col- 
lector (6) 

28 Going in for charm (8) 

4 Very old worker In northern 
French company (7) 

8 Non-representational artist 
having to summarise article 
about playwright (8,7) 

7 Bud attracting a bit of extra 
veneration (5) 

8 Press spread about ten nasty 
snakes (8) 

9 Bill at the pillar-box? (6) 

16 Member of sect giving one 
song on first night (9) 

17 A poor paper book it is obvi- 
ous (8) 

19 Peddler of sham jewellery is 
not very skilful (6) 

20 Car with no reverse keeps 
going forward (5,2) 

21 Bald-headed bird-dog (6) 

23 Position, we bear, looks a 
mess (5) 

Solution 8,593 


1 Insect on top button of gar- 
ment (6) 

2 Arrange to pass place (9) 

3 Fine piece of prase not appre- 
ciated by men in docks? (7JS) 

oagaga Q00GH0BB 
□□□Hamm Bmacnuna 
ITH 0 13 13 D □ 
□□□auH □Diusnaa 
□ a s 0 a a h □ 

El Ki □ 0 Q 0 D 
00011000000 BQQE 
el b a a a b b b 
□000HD0 SS0E00B 
an ^0 Q00B0 
00000000 Q00OBE 

Of broking and ioltoittg ihe Mkm's fund, 

Stv hmr smelly he puts your uvrd wiio tviul. 

Stelikaa © 


until at least autumn next 

In Queensland, which has 
been hit hardest by the cli- 
matic conditions and where 
farmers are now facing their 
fourth year of drought, the 
wheat crop could be as tittle as 

200.000 tonnes, said Abate. The 
last time production fell to this 
sort of level was in 1970-71. The 
Queensland barley crop, mean- 
while. was estimated at aO.OOO 
- a level not seen since the 

In New South Wales, the 
other state very seriously 
affected by the drought, winter 
crop production was estimated 
at only 750,000 tonnes, some 
7m tonnes less than in 1993-94. 
Wheat production was forecast 
to fall by 91 per cent, to 440,000 
tonnes - well below levels seen 
in the 1982-33 drought. NSW 
barley production was put at 

135.000 tonnes, one of the low- 
est figures on record. 

Even in Western Australia, 
which is forecast to provide the 
lion's share oF 1994-95 wheat 
crop, Abarc noted that crops 
were being stressed by hot 
temperatures and below aver- 
age October rainfall. However, 
it said that the predicted 5.4m 
tonne crop would still be above 




! l: ** 






’ 1v 


V ... '"v 

' ‘ 'V Ffr. 

- ^ 

■ ■ -W*. 

m launch 



FT-SE-A All-Share index 


FT-SE Index struggles to hold the 3,000 mark 

By Terry Byland, 

UK Stock Markets Editor 

Tfce fortunes erf the rfnHar and the 
US bond markets continued to 
u ndermine equities in London yes- 
terday. The market plunged 
through the FT-SE 3^X30 mark at the 
op ening and although the index 
managed to struggle back to this 
be nchmar k at the close, the mood 
remained depressed. 

The recovery in the second half of 

the session reflected the rally in 
New York bonds. The final reading 
<*3000.9 cm the FT-SE imtar showed 
a fall on the day of 283 points, but 
the Index had been down to 2^85.8. 

The weakness in Federal bonds, 
r eflecte d in the move above a per 
cent in yield on the key long hnmd 
overwhelmed all other factors in 
UK -equities yesterday morning. 

However, the stock mar ket also 
reacted uncom fo rtably to the latest 
survey of business opinion, fr ora 
members of the Confederation of 
British Industry, which referred to 
expectations of higher prices This 
fuelled fears that the next rise in 
base rates might , come before the 
end of the year, especially if US 
bonds continue to exert similar 
upward pressures on global rates. 

Although trading volumes 
remained moderate yesterday, one 
leading US investment bank was 
believed to have lost money heavily 
after taking on a. very large sell 
programme which bad to be passed 
on into the market after shar e 

prices had fallen heavily. The pro- 
gramme, displayed on the trading 
screens just before the close of deal- 
ing, included substantial tranches 

of Stock in SUCh. leading pamtx; ag 

BTR, BIZ, Seed International, Brit- 
ish Gas and Abbey National. 

The programme also took in a 
large number of small-capitalised 
stocks, which are notably difficult 
to unload when markets are weak, 
and are likely to have cost the US 
hank dear in yesterday’s conditions. 
Trading programmes have become 
high risk operations in a volatile 

Stock index futures provided the 
impetus for much of the action in 
equities. The FT-SE Index opened 
nearly 30 points down and gave fur- 
ther ground as bonds sbd .lower. 
Turnover in- equities was fairly 
restrained at first, with market 
traders unwilling, to venture in to 
the market 

The Seaq total was swollen later 
when the sell programme was 
printed and the final total of 589.7m 

shares was nearly 25 per cent up on 
the previous session. Non-Footsie 
business made up around 56 per 
cent of tile total business. 

Losses among the dollar-earners 
played a significant role in depress- 
ing the FT-SE 100 Index; City ana- 
lysts raimiata that that around one 
fifth of aggregate profits of the Foot- 
sie -listed companies are influenced 
by the dollar’s fortunes. However, 
oil shares proved relatively resis- 
tant to { M lar pressures and utility 
stocks strongly outperformed the 
market on dividend optimism. 

Base rate nervousness showed 
itself in weakness among the retail 
and consumer stocks, where most of 
the high street store groups giro 

ground. There were few beneficia- 
ries, however, from the CBI report's 
stress on Investment plans "nrnmg 
British companies. 

Traders stressed that the sharp- 
ness of the market's bounce when 
New York steadied - the Dow Aver- 
age was 7 points up in OK hours - 
implied that London could open 
higher today if US bonds extend 
their recovery. 

This afternoon brings the disclo- 
sure of the latest monthly US dura- 
ble goods figures, which have in the 
past proved highly significant for 
US bond trends. Analysts are pre- 
dicting a small fall after the 6.1 per 
cent gain in. the previous monthly 
data, a trend which, could prove 
helpfid for bond markets. But confi- 
dence will be tested later this week 
when Washington releases statistics 
on unem ployment claims and third 
quarter gross domestic product. 
M»rfcp»c are also nervous ahead of 
tomorrow’s meeting at the Bundes- 

t .650 -- 

1325 ft. 


1,550 * 


1300 - - 

1,475 * — — * — 

Turnover by velum (mSfery Ewdudhg: 
form mniiint meinnn mri mnimra nmrwnr 



6**ra FTQnpNn 

■ Kay Indicator* 
I n di e— and ratios 

FT-SE 100 

FT-SE Md2S0 

FT-SE-A 350 

FT-SE-A AB-Share ytetd 

3000 9 









FT Ordinary Index 
FT-SE-A Non Fnw pta 
FT-SE 100 Fut Doc 

10 yr GUt yield 

Long gtit/equrty ykl ratio; 











Beat p— funning lectori 

Worst performing eoctors 








5 OU. lntergratod — ... 


5 Retaaere, Food 


BP firm 
r the trend 

BP was one of only a handful 
of FT-SE 100 constituents to 
make progress yesterday, the 
shares responding to excellent 
exploration news from its lat- 
est well in the Foinavon field, 
west of the Shetland Islands, 
but also to better than expeo- 
ted third-quarter figures from a 
number of US oil majors. BP is 
scheduled to announce third- 
quarter results next Tuesday. 

Analysts were sceptical of, but 
refused to rule out completely, 
the chances of an increase in 
the quarterly dividend. 

Another bull point for BP, 
sector specialists said, was the 
absence in recent sessions erf 
any substantial sailing from 
the US. A number of US funds, 
who bought into BP around 18 
mrmfhq ago at a ra n mi the $50 
mark for each ADR, the equiv- 
alent of 32 BP ordinaries, have 
been persistent sellers of the 
stock from $70 upwards. US 
holdings are now below the 20 
per cent mark, compared with 
a peak of over 28 per cent 

Analysts were enthusiastic 
about flow rates averaging 
17,000 barrels a day from well 

204/24a-4 in the Foinavon field; 
“It suggests the area will be a 
major new oil province for 
both BP and Shell and it could 
be that the market has not 
folly talfpn on board the finan- 
cial impact Of this," said nna. 
BP has an 80 per cent stake in 
the Foinavon block and Shull 
20 per cent Elsewhere, west of 
the RMhnilt BP and Rholl are 
mostly 50/50 partners. 

BP were marginally Higher 

at dip. Shell fell 6ft to 694p. 

Cadbury hints 

Concern that Cadbttry- 
Schweppes might be poised to 
make a fresh acquisition were 
sharpened by an announce- 


Stock index futures fell for the Jeffrey Brown. 

third session In a row, moving 
decisively down through the 
3,000 level at one stage in 
heavy trading volume, writes 

The FT-SE 100 December 
contract swung through an arc 
of 32 points in what traders 
described as hectic activity. 

* FT-Se SIP 1HPBC FUTURES (UF^ E26 par Qatar point 


SaB pries 




Eat vo) 

Opan M. 


3003 a 

-21 jO 


2981 JO 





-22 S 





D 280 INDEX FUTURES 5JFFE) CIO par 68 IndaK point 








■ ft-se mm) 280 amex Rmines tOMuq cio par tukKtexpotrt 
0 k - 347M 

M opan Ma i Bat Ipma are ter fmkoua day. f Exact vokro Msaai. 


| CIO par M Index poht 

2800 2080 3000 3080 3100 3160 3300 3380 

tar ZW*2 8*2 17l«a 15 129*z23*2 SS*j 37 81 56 ■ 83** *1*117*2 11>* 189*2 

Dec *31 2212 m 32 in 46 123 63 9* 85 80 111 47 Ml » 178 

tat BVi 35 218*2 48 183*2 62 152 80*2 123 102 96 128*2 73 155 S3 187 

Feb 278 49 233 01 JlS*t 74** >86*2 B3 MB IttfcMffe 138 88 188*2 57 Uffh 

JUrf 311 Tl 2(4*2 103 184 142*2 137*2 188 

C*k B.49Z PH* WlZM 


3835 3875 2836 3975 3085 3075 3125 3175 

faa 192 11(2148*217*2 1W 29 16*2 45 SO BB*2 31 38*2 17 135 176*2 

DOC 208*2 V 171*238*2 131 S3 105 71 77*2 93*2 56*2 121 37*2*52*2 23*2 188 
Jn 238*232*2 157*2 BZ TO 106 KH* 165 

Ur 257*257*2 188*2 88 134*2128*2 Wa TO 

Junt 398*28012 232*2 112 176 152 «7%198*2 

t log ttatod m*r moat*. 


3400 3490 9500 3580 3800 

Oct 127*2 B5*i 168*2 87*2 77*2 1U 

CMK 0 MiO SWOeniHt prfca* and wtmn m Mon M43QpH.. 

3080 3700 3780 

There were 18,600 contracts, 
against 5,523 on Monday and 
an average for last week of 
less than 13,000. 

At the official 4:0 dose, the 
December contract was 3,009, 
down 21* points. At this level 
the premium to the cash 
market was around 9 points 
with far value premium at 14 

Traders said the upsurge in 
volume reflected the strong 
swings in the cadi market 
rather than eery real attempt to 
provide direction. The low 
point for the December 
contract was just after mid-day 
at 2,081. 

Quality of business improved 
with plenty of two-way 
business allowmg traders to 
deal In amounts larger than 
has been the norm recently. 

Traded options activity 
mirrored todex futures vohme, 
roaring ahead to 49,676 lots 
from 13,951 on Monday. 

FT-SE and Euro FT-SE 
turnover accounted for more 
than 31,000 lots. 

British Airways was far and 
away the most actively dealt 
individual stock option turning 
over 2,840 lots. Tesco (1,600 
lots) and British Gas (1,232 
lots) were-afso actively traded. 

FT - SE Actuaries Share indices 

The UK Series 


Oct 25 ctoBM Oct 24 Oct 21 QM20 

Year Dfv. Earn. P/E Xd act Total 
ago yMdM yMd* ratio yM Baton 

FT-SE 100 

FT-8E Md 250 

FT-SE MM 250 ax hw Tmats 

FT-SE-A 380 

FT-SE SmaOCap 

FT-SE SaiaflCap ax In* Tiuata 


-OS 3020.1 3032* 30812 31 OSS 
-0.7 35002 35024 3524.9 3S45J) 
-07 34805 36006 3621 S 3643S 
-09 15200 1SZSM 1538.7 15803 
-08 178020 178056 1782.77 1804S9 
-05 175034 179048 1782JS1 178005 
-09 151076 151299 152088 156(92 

1692 11096 
2056 10090 
1018 11397 
17.14 53.77 
2690 4085 
2290 5071 
1794 5290 

■ FT-SC Actuaries AB-Share 


Oct 25 eftgo* Oct .24 Oct 21 Oct 20 

P/E Xd «4. Total 
tak> ytd Return 


12 Extractive bMustrteaW 

16 OS, Hagntacft 

16 08 Exploration P Pnxrtl) _ 


21 BuMng & ConsJTUcttan$33) 

22 BuBtflng Mata & Mardwpaj 

23 Chmkaltpat 

24 EtaarriBed tnduaWria(1N 

25 BectrorVc 0 Beet Equfp(34) 

26 EntfneeringfTI) 

27 Btgtaaring. V4Mdasn2) 

28 Printing. P*P« & **<*8P6J 

28 Texttaa 8 ApperadMj 

30 CONSUMER 00008(87} 

31 Brawertaa(17) 

32 SpMta, vwnas 0 Cktara(lQ 

33 Pood Manufecturara(33) 

34 Housahctd GoodaPS) 

SB Health Qara<21) 

37 Pharmacaubcri«Ct2) 

38 Tatmcrarill ■ ; 

40 3ERWCES (218} 

41 DWribuerapO) 

42 Leiem A HototSZ^ . 

43 MedhOq 

44 nat a fl ara, Foodfie) 

45 Rotators, QenaraW 
48 Support Sarak»<41) 

40 TianaportflO) 

St Otfrar Snirfcw A BrahawP 

60 unurwspa} 

62 BeeWe*y(17) 

54 Gaa DtaWsuBonp) 

B8 TfltoeoinmricallcirBW 

56 aftg 

BB MON-rWNCWm8371 _ 

70 FVMNCtM9t104 

71 Barton 

73 Lmaance f lT) 

74 LTfs Assurance® 

75 Merchant Banka® 

77 (Xfiar BnancWp^ 

78 ProparivWI 


-06266897 268191 266298 243290 
-19388698 388099 3604.78 3171 AO 
-04 281891 281292 260699240490 
-19 187013 187793 1800.18 196290 
-08 184891 185393 1889.72 192490 
-19 105190 105199 106692 1171.40 
-09 181296 1317.47 1832.70 168290 
-19 231798 231997 234294 222490 
-07 173893 174996 17B990200490 
-19 1858.74 185794 188894210690 
-09 179092 178092 180696 170190 
-19 226028 226691 227592 1637.10 
-04 275397 2748.12 27S699 245390 
-04 1S7590 1581.63 160596 19S4J0 
>09 20BBL57 271191 273790 266690 
-03 2218972218124223241 2076.40 
-09 278343 279293 283998 272690 
-14 2282.03 226696 228697 237340 
-09239694240091 243491 265790 
-06 1606.84 160698 1617.74 174690 
-07 2963.10 290493 299997 330390 
-1,7 3603.11 358093 368190 404390_ 
-09 189399 189528 1906.79 191140 
-OS 246093 248547 2S0296 268500 
-07 2053.17 206897 20789B 191290 
-09 277992 276496 2604.72 262890 
-14 160597 170591 171193 1745.70 
-07 164796 1645.14 1662.83 170). 70 
-04 148392 148596 148298 163740 
-07 221992 221692 223196228690 
-09 1262.19 124797 134595 123330, 

-07 2372.08 236896 239006 2519.10 
404 2468.73 244298 244074 2222.70 
-19 187849 188514 190792 2248.10 
-1.1 199993200192 203795 2303.10 
-07 18S9L1B 187395 190444 194080 
AB 163296 1634.76 1647.70 157536 

-19 213890 213391 216191 232050 
-19 273390 ZieiXSS 262991 265790 
-1.7 122746 1224.18 1244.12 147840 
-14 231077 231068 2359.44 2837.10 
-19 271198 Z72493 274080 317490 
-09180011 1797.72 180197 178890 
-09 1455.79 44 14WU7 1727.10 

-1.1 2717.78 271995 274798 273090 
-09 151078 151299 162598 150492 

2448 <P-41 106893 
23.10 9892 1057.71 
2196 8893 107298 
± 3003 107013 

2395 8897 937.77 

24.73 3008 82044 
23.18 6690 85192 

27.73 7998 101591 
2233 8275 88792 
1798 6085 90197 
2348.4947 101799 

8tUJ0r 9294 100196 
2146 7593 108198 
17.77 4898 88896 
1543 10793 92498 
1593 61.10 891.11 
1638 10193 92990 
1491 8499 84078 
1571.8998 86397 
4198 4524 83039 
1591 12598 94191 
1198 21797 80795 
1051 51.78 BZ49S 
1890 6595 86061 
2495 57.69 100014 
2146 6042 961. tl 
1290 5290 100194 
1896 4493 87691 
1893 3592 90092 
2018 6098 86592 
4891 2592 1065.54 

1598 6197 91091 
1193 8340 1029.10 
*117.96 86493 
1331 6092 84333 
051 8935 92297 

1843 SS32 
12.47 8935 
1198 11639 
1192 6191 
1496 12792 
047 87.76 
1089 6331 
2060 4088 

S049 64.15 90496 
1794 5290 118293 

■ Hourly mow ^ >l t * gJ0 ianp 11J0 1290 13 JP 0 i*oo isoo w.10 

— ***,7 29802 29807 28889 2ML1 26904 28907 30054 29B&6 

FT-SE KJO 29W* 3^75.-, 34669 3409.1 34729 34744 34706 34683 

16043 160M 15aa3 15oao W1J 1S03 ' 1 

_ • M—n IW, ime mOcn. FT-GE 100 1904 Mpc 85Z03( 7JZ) Line 267U $4/^ 

Time ti FT-66 100 Owf* MS* SSSP"* 1*4^* ** IZaOpm. FT-GE 100 1«4 Wpx 

■ ft-SC Actuaries 350 bufciatry bMkets 

Opan 090 1090 1W» 12M 

1690 1010 

PtbhIoub Changa 

meat concerning the food and 
soft drink group’s stake in Dr 
Pepper/Seven-Up, third biggest 
soft drinks groqp in the US. 

Cadbury ei*vi an amendmoit 
to Schedule 13D - an obligatory 
requirement for large holders 
of gfeilcaq in US companies - 
relating to its Investment in Dr 
Pepper. The amendment is 
seen principally as an update 
but ensures fhat Cadbury has 
the possibility erf ebang m g fts 
25 per gfcaVft significantly. 

There are two likely scenar- 
ios, according to the market 
First Cadbury may make an 
outright bid for Dr Pepper 
because it has, so for, been 
itnaiiip to obtain a seat on the 
board. However several ana- 


Vet Ctaatig Dqn 

M*»r Nuionart 



WOO 400 
21V 44 

1,100 BT5 
707 020 

144 323 

4.700 257 




1.100 271 

9.100 407 

2400 422 




Bar* et Scvbtnat 




0400 300 

14400 301 

1400 106 

3300 507 

700 534 

2400 270 

129 400 

3400 520 

MM) Oast 
Ottfe Lmd 




Cartui OnamB.t 







001 004 

12400 153*, 
1400 100 

078 835 

1400 68 

4.100 S3? 

1400 420 

2400 271 


201 100 
3300 7S5 

2400 074 


Omotoi BacLf 

1,700 330 

1400 072 

1400 210 

024 ISflij 
800 115 

1400 130*J 
1300 227 



349 S3* 

10400 220*, 
2.103 100 

Montai [Wn) 






607 573 

1,100 464 


5400 171>i 
1,100 420 

1/00 277 

4400 384 

IV 1340 

araa B M tt— U vt 

BcuOi W—t EW3. 

451 400 

450 140 

8400 403 

4/00 388 

001 4S2 

£100 TV 


™* a 

H QnsT 

Thorn BWf 
ToHov Home 

5400 279 

3.700 221 
7400 31 7 

1400 357 

2400 210*2 
3400 124 

003 4W 
675 124 

7.700 333 

700 310 

634 970 

2400 206 

674 329 

2JQ00 1110 

754 2H 


lysts favour the second possi- 
bility, that Cadbury will wait 
until the Dr Pepper shares 
have reached an acceptable 
level and sell its stake to fund 
an acquisition of SmithKline 
Beecham’s Lucozade and 
Ribena arm. 

Either way, it is likely to 
increase gpyr i pg , Last year 
company spent £476m last year 
on acquisitions, raising E940m 
of the cost through a rights 
issue. Nevertheless, it has said 
it can finance £400m to £500m 
of acquisitions without 
recourse to shareholders. Cad- 
bury shares fell 10 to 425p. 
Dr. Pepper/Seven-Up shares 
were up around 10 per cent 
during London trading hours. 

The life assurance stocks 
were easier, but no worse than 
the wider market, after the 
Securities and Investments 
Board published its review of 
mis-selling of personal pen- 

One marketmaker described 
the ■ < ctb news as “slightly iwa 
worrying than the market had 
been expecting," but pointed 
out that it would “leave a 
shadow ova: the sector until 
the mess is sorted out" 

There was heavy trading in 
Prudential shares, where turn- 
over reached 7.3m, with the 
stock price down 5 at 297p, 
while Legal & General dipped 
7 to 42Sp on IJm traded and 
Uoyds Abbey Life 3 to 327p. 

Dealers pointed out the con- 
tinuing heavy trade in Stan- 
dard Chartered, where turn- 
over reached 5.8m shares, and 
the outperformance of the 
shares, steady at 279p, follow- 
ing further aggressive buying 

LOWS FOR 1994 

LEaum 0 HOTIUB to D»w u>y<i. ibm to 
Banach, RETAUH, OEXERM. (t) Mom Bra. 
A8WCANB tq Tongas- MiaK HI. 

VLTS P} 8AWQB n wmeBoa «i) 
Pmnounl. BUBJXMO A CMTm (6 AMEC 
6Kp Prt. 6wli9w. Parlnmon. Ua MM134 

Morn (7 | /Mm. 8Mba. OWMBV Mttxk 
OOMCAL0 (9 Heknn HT. KMen, tjporta. 
"nrwnrmm fmi nm i i n>mn»i 
r> »nm. am Meter*. ErtapM CempuMr. 

Vd, e*fi. avoawD eats p* 
Q aa miM. Jonoaon BaOrte Vat. S ca noom c. 

BtBMinNO n BM, vewaci n bso 
Inn. Lolid. BtnuciM BOS H) Ongen 
Mntig. EngM Q*» Cay*. Mbnnti Rn. 
HMnaxV. PeMttcMoL T^lMl UM Scinna. 
MSURANCE n «*u* lloydi Wi*. xmnen 
GvnoL Aon Coqa. Lotndn Lnoal. 
AMon OM0 Pit. LadMta MnM O0MML 
Nit. MBNA NtMorMB, BMP. 
PhonVnk. tamM SSndgdnd, 
imCTMKT BANKB (1) Hntm, OB. 

EMOMBOM < moo <9 emarjrta 04. 
Ocamiea. ScMmwgw. OTMDI RMAMC1M. n 
Waste Mraganant tal. PHARMPCB/TKALS 
P) Onein. PfCTNCL MPB( 6 PACXQ n 
Bammea. ML Thornton. BrtMon. Laaaon 
Mntai.afcN». PHO P Bm rna mnaBa. 
FOOD (2) HCTA&SR8. QENE7UL p) B«te (J) 
A, BMl loteuoi tOn^Maf. MMao, Mantln 6Q. 
Signal, Sothabya, SUPPORT SERVS 00 ACT, 
Coda. McDoonel Wo. Pagaaua. VIMac. 
TEXIU£8 0 APPAKEL (1) UK Safety. 
TMN80ORT M CMtay PaeMc Aktas. P 3 CX 

by one erf the (Sty’s leading 

Abbey Natkmal fell 8 to 403p, 
affected by tire stock’s inclu- 
sion in a sizeable programme 
trade with a block of 2m shares 
said to have been iminaflpd on 

the market at 401p. 

Worries about the impact of 
market turbulence, unsettled 
SG Warburg; which dropped 17 
to 614p. Eeinwort Benson, on 
the other edged higher 
to 467p- 

R uHding and pl umbing prod- 
ucts group Wolseley delivered 
excellent preliminary figures, 
including profits at thevery top 
end of the range of analysts' 
forecasts and a dividend total 
only fractionally short of best 
expectations, but its shares 
were hampered by the steep 
decline in the market. 

At the close the shares were 
8 off at 725p, having traded 
between 72£p and 730p: turn- 
over was a relatively high 
L5m. Analysts were said to be 
lilting 1995 estimates from the 
current figure of around 
£230m-£>4Qm to around £250m 
to £260m. 

Pharmaceuticals group 
Tpnpw held firm as the group 
announced third quarter sales 
had risen by 8 per cent The 
shares were 9 weaker in early 
trading, reflecting the weak US 
currency but rallied to dose 
steady at 838p. 

Smith New Court's latest 
quarterly review of diversified 
industrial companies help lift 
Williams Holdings 4 to 339p 
against the market with the 
shares heading the securities 
house's best in the sector list 

BTR - the day's most active 
Footsie stock - dipped 1ft to 
301p In turnover of 14m, of 
which 5m was a programme 
trade said to have been exe- 
cuted by Goldman Sachs. 

Food retailer Argyll slipped 
8ft to 257p as one securities 

house had to work bard to 
place a block of 2m shares. 

Large amounts of stock 
looking for a borne also 
restrained retailer Next Deal- 
ers said 1.3m shares were sold 
at below the current market 
price and the shares fell 6ft to 

The recent moves by 
regional electricity companies 
to buy back stock and pay spe- 
cial dividends sharpened old 
speculation that Great Univer- 
sal Stores would try and find a 
way of distributing part of Its 
£L5bn cash pile to sharehold- 
ers. The company holds its 
annual meeting on Friday - 
potentially an ideal time. The 
shares held firm at 558p. 

Up 4 at 534p, Bass stood out 
in a brewery sector clouded by 
the failure of the Lazard Brew- 
ers Investment Trust which 
was to have acquired Whit- 
bread's share stakes in a num- 
ber of regional drinks groups. 

Wolverhampton and Dudley 
tumbled 12 to 512p while cider 
group Buhner fell 18 to 3S8p. 
Greene King closed 3 down at 
528p. Whitbread tell 4 to548p. 

GKN shed 8 to 601p in fairiy 
nominal L5m turnover follow- 
ing a trade press report that 
Lynx helicopters worldwide 
had been grounded. 

The company's subsequent 
denial of the report had little 
affect on weak sentiment 
among engineering shares. 


Stave Thompson, 

Peter John, 

Jeffrey Brown. 

■ Other statistics. Page 24 




Od Ji Mr Ofl JM Apr 
540 37 - - 1 - — 

SN IM - - IT - - 

240 19 25H31M 1 0M 12M 

250 2 12 21 JM 18 22 

80 I 4H 8 1 4 Si 

70 1 » 4 9 10 11M 

BtMnefl 300 11 28H38M 2 16M 22 
r») 300 1 12 23H23H 34 39 
MBCWA 390 18 29 30M 1 15 21M 

r«3) 420 1 14 22M 10 32 37K 

Buds 500 28 38 SI 1 11 17M 

rS2S ) 550 1 13 28 20 39 43W 

BP 390 31 40 1 8M 15H 

C410 J 430 2 ISM MM 12 24 30 

BrtbhSM 140 IBM 23 27H 1 3 5 
(-19 1 100 IM 0» 10 ®* WM 13 

Bob 500 35H 45 9 1 15M 19 

(•533 1 560 1 IB 9 2DM 43 47 

atetm »im a « 2 ib 2 M 

(-397 ) 420 1 T7M2BM2BM 37 44 

GflUrtMdi 43D13H27H 9 T 18 21 

(-431 ) 460 1 11 21 SOM 40M 44 

COBDIHM 483 21 4S40H 1 10H 22 

rS18 ) 543 1 18 24 28 36H 9 

— cm we — 

- fttlttMa MMf 

220 7» 13 ISM 612M IB 
240 2 5M 8 21M2SM 29 

154 4 - - 10 - - 

W 15 21 8 3 7H 11 
200 4M n IBM 13H 17H 22 
550 51 M 88 74M 3M 10M 24 
GOO WM 31 45M20M 29 47M 
180 17 IBM 22 2» BM 9 
200 4M t U11M 17 19M 
2B0 23 30 33 3H 814M 
300 8 18 2211K16M 25 

850 25M 02 MM IBM 31 4BM 
900 7 28 30 51 BOM 78 

420 42M 9 82 2M BM IBM 
480 MM 21 MM 14 24 39 
360 23 JIM *7 410M15H 

280 IBM ZIM 20% 12 1B2SM 
220 18 24M2BM 3 B 12 
240 8 13 IM 12 ISM 22 

MS IBM 23M - 2 08 - 

BrttMi Finds 

Other Rxod Interest — , 

Mnerd Extraction 

Genwal Manufacturer, . 
Connmor Qoods 

Investment Trusts . 
Others — 






































Feet DoaSngs October 24 Expky 

Last OaeOngs November 4 Settlement 

Januvy 26 

Wla *97, Heean Wte, Kemera, KnfrfL 


O 710 Si TOM 82 1 12 28 

[■797 ) 000 S3BS2M 8 31HS2 

NngUwr 460 13 34M 49 IM IBM 28 

r<70 ) 500 1 14M 9 31K 39 «7» 

200 7 14 IBM 

325 IBM - - 

8 15 IB 

4 - - 

taue AM 
price paid 






354 <K — — 

IBM - - 

P m 



Lew Stock 


tkt Me Nr Oct Jta Apr 

- FP. 



4 APIA Wtnte. 


r BB u 

- F.P. 



63 Arterial Ema. 


- FJ>. 



1 Coral Foods MMb 


63 FJ»_ 



B5 Entemk 


550 1 10 22 

37 S0S3M 

- F P. 



108 Fterrtc CU* 


115 FJ>. 



115 Oemea Workshop 


NN Qv. On HE 
m . cot . yM net 

RN0.71 S3 1J By4 
RN0.75 2JJ OJ 38J7 
RN4.Q 22 4.6 IIS 

Land Sear S50 S1H 5BK St» 1 5M SH 

CSB9) GOO 3 21 3SM 5 24 27 

Mala 8 S 3B0 31M 39 40 1 8 ION 

(•420 ) 420 3 H 29M 3M 15 22M 

NdSat 40D2SM 43 9 1 13 2BM 

r«83 ) 500 1 21 29 ISM 32 48M 

300 20 3B40M 1 11 15 

3B0 1H t8M 29 6M 24 ZW 
BED 4BH 00 BM 1 8 16 

700 2K2SM 9 BM 24 38 
220 3M' .14 12 2 11 16 

240 T BH If 207f 24H £8K 

39O20M2H4 3BK 
420 11 2DM2SM 
25 4 8 • 

30 It » » 
850 IBM SOM 00 
BOO 12 25 S 
200 21 21 9 
280 14M22M2m 
260 M 31 30 
7B0 11 W 19M 23H 
100 2327M32M 

2K n » B 


25M37M 43 
IK 2M 3M 

« in 

14 77 34* 
41M S5B2M 
5M SM 15 
13M 17 25 
4 013K 

12 IBM 23 
4K 9K 13 

13 19 23 

35 27 Grace Dv Cap WIs 

BZ SB Hmrtm Sm AtHn 
30 27 Do Wrote 

195 178 Madde Ml 

mao 22 4.1 74 





160 Man ED & F 











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138 Santeer 









357 TampMen E Nn* 











177 Da WiteL 2004 











57 WMcluctl 








340 Wrexham Water 










320 Do. NV 








Glard Mat 
rasa j 

01 IK M Q 1 4M 6 
BO 1 5 0 7M 10H 12 

110021H SI 00 2 29 45 

1150 1 2SH 4B39H57M72K 

BOO 4IM95M 7TM 1 15H 31 
BSD 2H B 40VH4K 3BH 56K 

■Wt Rth nw BM my 

390 U 20 KM 7K 21 24 

420 OK 1S23M 26 38M 41 
140 UK IBM 23 2» BH 9M 
160 *M 8M UK 13 17 21H 
280 29H 30K33H 4 7K 16 

300 8 19 2312H16H 27 


(-400 ) 
Scat Pdww 


100 tl 10 10 OK 0 14 
180 3 7 9K 17 22 27H 

130 WH 1SH 17 7 12 UK 

140 0 8 UK 13 10 19 

490 3Z44HSSH 12 TB28H 
500 1S24K38K 33 40 49 
33Q 27K 3B44K 10 2DK23H 
3B012H22H 39 2BH 30 3BK 
100 ISM 1SK 17H 2 3K 5M 
110 W 10M 12 5 8 11 

220 1BM22H 21 7H 9K 18 
240 0 12U 10 19H 21 27K 


Issue Amours Latest 




























lenn. 1094 

date Mph Low Slock 

dosing «*■ 

78 2/12 2pm *4pm APT A HeMUi 

M zani 20pm a*2Pfn Gstfes 

78 25/11 >4ixn Dragon 01 

78 9/12 15*2ptn 5pm SJctow 

78 ram SBpm 30pm Smutt (J) 

M 15/11 2 *2 pm 1pm iUnton Severe 

78 14/11 6pm 1*2pm World of Leatar 

*4 pm 

10pm -1 

5pm -4 
30pm -12 


110 11M 15M 19 I M 11 
120 BH 11 15 12 H 14 M IB 

Her M Ikj tar W> Hqr 

480 20 49 B 4 K 10 S 1 H 40 M 
am 11 29 37 45 H 56 WK 
420 16 K 30 04 11 18 K SM 
480 8 K 12 M 10 41 M 44 57 

t 6 9 13 
t 12 14 M 10 
17 34 43 K 
: 41 a 87 
i 3 K 7 M 10 K 
r 11 K 17 2 DK 

6 H 11 14 
rl 7 » 23 35 K 
78 2 BH 39 H 
1 3 BK 53 05 

on tai tar 


Oct 25 

Oct 24 

Oct 21 

Oct 20 

Oct IB 

Yr aoo 



Onflnary Stare 

2301 £ 



2358, 2 





Old. CSV. yWd 









Earn. ytd. % fu« 









P/E rata net 









P/E rarionl 









Tor 1004. (Mrary Store index rinoo rtraplrilwr high 2713.6 JWM, low 404 28CM0 
FT (M«y Bat Me tun due 1/7/35. 

Bin 300 Tl 29M 2SM BM 14K 22 

(TOO 5 330 2 8K13H31K34H 41 
HTMcu 380 25H 2M 38 2i WH 14 

r300) 390 SH 13 21 14 28 29 

Carboy St* 420 18 NN 34 8 15 25 

(*42S ) 480 2K Q1SM 38 40K 50 




Ecston Bee 79 28 62 7iK 24 K 47 53 

C7SS ) BOO > 31H4BK SB 7SH 79H 

8uk nos 420 40HBSK 9 1H 5K12H 
{*464 J 480 8H23H 3912K2CH2M 
ea 2E0 22 EH 3lH 2 6 BH 

rZ78 ) 280 8 14 20 B IS 17K 





550 3BM57M BO 1 15M2SK 
600 1H20K 42 IBM 38 54 
BSO 47 7ZK 81 1 T837K 

700 0 43H5BH10H38K82H 


« 1 - -10# - - 

iar Feb Itaf Ww FcO Kay 

700 U 21 H 27i 6K >0 
180 4 10M 14 12K 16 21 

O n W a ry 8hT> hourly demgee 

Open aOO 104X7 1L00 12J0 13 j 00 14LOO 13J0 16J0 Lour 

2302.4 2289.5 2299J 2283.0 2291.7 2291,3 2293.1 22982 23000 2304,0 22898 
Oct 2S 0024 Qg 21 Oct 20 Oct 19 Yr epo 
SEAO Den Mns 24.673 22.654 22,025 E3taJ5 20,148 sOfiOB 

- Urtderty*ig maMy price. narimeiMiM 
baed cn PnfeB drier prices 

October 25 Tow BA071 Ms 19800 

Puts 31,062 

SEAO tseiyains 24.673 22.654 

EqlAt turnover JCtt^T * 9*T& 

Equity traqairur - 25^78 

Shame traded (mOt 4206 

leMurano Mra-oerot burin— end bm— trenemr. 

Oct 24 

Oct 21 

Oct 20 

Oct 19 

Yr ago 





















H MNy 2) 

| The Property Finance Sourcebook 1994 

I Avoid expensive fees - go straight to the saints. With this book you are the 
expert. The uttnnue Property Finance Directory, indispensable for anyone 
[ interested is UK property. Call 071 495 172ft 





Te* {0442} 0 3 0 1 S * Fox '04-1 2 ) 07^.33*1 | 


*.#•*.* i 'M-JMNf 

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Dollar slips to fresh lows against D-Mark and yen 


October 28 Over One Ste rajp raw 

right moniti m8w V* 3 * — 

Pessimism about the outlook 
for the US dollar yesterday 
pushed it to fresh laws against 
both the D-Mark and the yen. 
writes Philip Gawith. 

The dollar touched a post- 
World War 2 low of Y96.35 
against the yen, and a two year 
low of DM1.4345 against the 
D-Mark, before recovering to 
finish in London at Y96.36 and 

There was no sign of con- 
certed central hank Interven- 
tion to support the dollar, 
though numerous rumours 
swept the market. 

Sentiment towards the US 
currency remains resolutely 
negative. Traders described the 
afternoon rally as a technical 
correction, driven by covering 
of short positions, rather than 
anything more fundamental. 

Sterling continued its good 
run, touching a high for the 
year of $1.6405 against the dol- 
lar. The trade weighted index 
closed at 60.7 from 80.4, the 
highest level since early June. 
The pound is now 3 per cent 
higher than during its recent 

lows attained last August 

In Europe the Swedish krona 
continued its advance, rising to 
SKT4.728 from SKF4.748 against 
the D-Mark. 

■ Trade in the dollar was 
driven more by technical fac- 
tors. and rumours, than in 
response to any comments or 
new bits of information. 

Mr Malcolm Barr, economist 
at Chemical Bank in London, 
said the extent to which the 
market had moved on rumours 
about central bank interven- 
tion showed how jittery it was. 
“Sentiment towards the dollar 
remains pretty unanimously 
negative," he said. 

The background to this pes- 
simism is the fear that the Fed 
is not being sufficiently vigi- 
lant in combatting inflation: 
and concern that there is little 

■ Pci*m In M aw Yorfc 

Oct 25 —Men — - Prw. don - 

£ spot 1.8367 1.6330 

prospect of the US narrowing 
Ms trade deficit with Japan. 

Mr Avznash Persaud, head of 
currency research at JP Mor- 
gan in London, put matters in 
a slightly different light He 
said currencies were moved 
not by a complex of factors, 
but by some simple relation- 
ship, “currently in force”. 

The dollar, he said, was 
“here because of the weight of 
outbound portfolio flows and 
in particular the sale of dollars 
by domestic investors.” 

Mr Persaud said the dollar 
would turn “only when the US 
investor is comfortable holding 
US assets and the US bonds - 
the largest $ denominated mar- 
ket” A “minimum condition” 
for this would be for US real 
yields (currently 4 - 25 - 4.75 per 
cent) to rise above German real 
yields (above 5 per cent). 

Mr Lloyd Bent sen. the US 
treasury secretary, sought to 
bolster the dollar yesterday, 
saying that the US favoured a 
strong dollar. He also said that 
the Fed a nd the Administra- 
tion shared the same growth 


flg^nst tfw CWtokfDM 



Soufco: OafBStmani 

and inflatio n view. 

Analysts were sceptical 
about the likely success of his 
intervention. Mr Ian Gunner, 
international economist at 
Chase Manhattan in London, 
said there were three things 
the US could do to help the 
dollar: raise interest rates, 
intervene, or talk So far they 
were only doing the latter, and 

then without great conviction. This was reflected in 
Mr Alan Blinder, vice-chair- double-digit losses in most 
man of the Fed, also said that short sterling contracts. The 
he did not believe the Fed was December contract closed at 
“behind the curve " in fighting 93.43, from 93.50, effectively 
inflation. "I think we are very discounting another 50 basis 
close to riding the cum, so to point rise in interest rates by 
speak" said Mr Blinder.. the end of the year. 

One ray of hope for dollar Mr Gunner said with mar- 
bulls was the speed with which kets focusing on inflation, ster- 
it bounced back. Mr Gunner ling continued also to benefit 
said this was an indication from last month’s pre-emptive 
“that perhaps the market was rise in interest rates, 
getting Quite short.” On the In its daily operations, the 
other hand, volumes were mod- Bank of England provided 
est and there was little sign of £660m of late assistance to the 
follow-through buying. market after earUer providing 

Mr Gunner said that with £273 m of liquidity at estab- 
the be nchmar k treasury bond fished rates. Overnight money 
yield having broken through 8 traded between 4% per cent 
per cent, it was possible it and 7 per cent. In the cash 
would s ink quite quickly as far market, three month LIBOR 
as 8.25 per cent On recent evi- finned slightly to 5 per cent 
deuce the dollar would follow, from 5$ per cent, 
perhaps to the DML45 leveL . — 

■ ptk»r cmgaoscssa 

■ The pound gained support oa 25 e j 

^ rtrongrar than aspoc- jw KS.'HS 

ted CBI industrial survey, kmou o.<sw - non nr pw . moot 
- which rekindled talk of rare 374572-375319 225900 • 229 x 10 
another rise in interest rates ^i- 85 - gwy, 0 raw 

by the year end. &0022 ' ^ 1 * 15 ' 15735 

BafeUfln * 

aMk ago 4 

Franco 5 

weekago 9 


weak >go <t.t 

intend 5 

weak ago * 

Italy a 

week ago S 

week ago *2 

Switzerland 3 

week ago 2 

US 4 

week ago *■ 

Japan 2 

weak ago 2 

■ S UBOR FT London 
interbank Rgdng 

week ago 

US Dollar C Da 
week ago 
SDR Linked Da 
week ego 

614 7.40 -*.50 


S* Si B’r 7.40 4 50 

6tt 5.00 

£ 3 £ i £ is 3 3 

54 5% 6* ew 

4* Sfc SU 6 i 

aw 84 «1 •** J2T ' jm 

ftj Si a* s* 

*84 43Q 3-20 5-35 5.73 - 

4.84 AM &« 5.29 5-58 - H* 

aa 3* * 1 * 4Si 6635 

23 31 i 4» 45 4S 6K5 3S0 

- 6.2S 

7.50 8.20 

7.50 820 


31 4 A% 
4fl 5* 

4* 48 5 ft Sir 

2V. 2W 23 24 

214 2U 2» SV? 

51 6» 

Sfc 6% 

4 " 6625 3-SO 

6 Vi - 400 

fl'A - 4.00 

6 54 58 84 

4. 88 5-38 5.71 831 

438 531 551 6.08 

3% 34 3W 4 

3% 3A 3» 4 

week ego - 3* . _ _ 

ecu Ltofrad ne wte nee 1 n*e 64: 3 mm* 3*: 8 8 «: 1 ^ 

iM am ottered raw tor nom qwwi to a* nu** 

«v. the canto m Bnun Tore, B«* of Togo. (CM 

Ujd raw am Motm tor me oomaadc Money Row, US S CO* and SDR iwma Oapeene ww 

499135 • 5000.10 305000 - 305500 
50022 - 50)42 15715 - 56735 


Cfcwng Change BfcVoffer 
rrio-pdnt on day spread 

Day's MW 
Wgh km 

One month Throe month* One year Bonk of 
Rata 94 PA Rate SPA Rata %PA Eng. mdex 




























920 - 065 













702 - 541 

50.3700 50.0840 











330 - 404 






- 0.6 






-a ooi5 

153 - 344 













SBS - 662 



8.36 IS 










410 - 427 













048 - 674 

375283 374.722 











120 - 133 













862 - ISO 

2505.83 2*91.90 








(LFi) 50.3122 +0.1225 702 - 541 50.3700 500840 503272 -04 502272 07 48-8322 1.0 

(FI) 2.7393 *0.0077 384 - 402 

(NKO 106222 +0.021 178 - 286 

(E3) 249.335 *0047 207-462 

(Pin) 203.810 +OS52 732 - 880 

(SKrl 11-5495 -002 412 - 677 

0.0077 384 - 402 2.7423 2.7278 2.7382 Oil 2.7345 0.7 2.7002 1.4 

+0.021 178 - 286 10.7187 105470 10.6217 Ol 10-625 -0.1 10.0268 03 

+0.047 207 - 462 251X144 248.119 2S1.085 -A3 254.245 -7.9 

+0562 732 - 886 203.938 203.016 3KZ -28 204.385 -2.1 SOTJSOS -1.6 

(SKrl 113495 -002 412 - 677 11.8477 11.5064 11.5705 -02 11.6175 -Z* 11-8055 -Z2 

(SFrj 2.0377 +0.0084 365 - 389 Z.041S 2.0264 2.0348 1.7 Z0S8A 1.8 1.3878 25 

(Q - - - 

- 1.2644 *0.0039 837 - 851 13851 13788 13843 -03 13843 0.1 13785 05 

- 13844 *0.0039 837 - 851 

- 0.914322 

Argentina (Peso) 1.6368 +0.0089 364 - 372 1.6410 1.6331 

Brad (Rft 1.3961 *0.0107 94 2 - 980 1.3987 13912 

Canada (CS 23082 +0.0069 073 - 090 2-2206 2.2060 

Mexico (New Paw) 5.5103 *0.0471 055 - 157 5.8180 5.5852 

USA (5) 1.6367 *0.0087 364 -370 1.6410 1.B329 

PHctflc/Mfdcfle East/ Africa 

Austrata (AS) £2225 +0.0123 £13 - 238 23238 32171 

Hong Kang (HNS) 12.6476 +0.0679 445 - 507 12.8798 12.8191 

Into (Rs) 51.3433 +02765 £57 - 609 51.4760 51-2240 

Japan (Y) 158.531 +027 438 - 825 158^30 1S8.070 

Malaysia (MS) 4.1711 +0.0144 695 - 727 4.1780 4.1590 

New Zealand (NZ5) 2.E720 +00152 704 -735 2,6783 2.6683 

PhiSppkies (Peso) 41.0813 +0.4639 464- 161 41.4200 407285 
Saud AraWa (SR) 01387 +0.0329 372 - 401 8.1544 01247 

Singapore (SS) 2.4071 +0.0086 0S8 - 084 2.4100 £4010 

S Africa (Com) (R) 5.7166 +00078 143 - 189 5.7302 5.6940 

S Africa (fin.1 (R) 6.4650 -0.0061 474 . 825 6.4630 6.4459 

South Korea (Won) 1307.31 +9.35 699 - 762 131067 1302.15 

Taiwan (TSI 42.6408 +0228 299 - 512 42.7497 4Z5444 
















































S Africa (Com) (R) 5.7166 +00078 143 - 189 5.7302 5.6940 - - - - - 

S Africa (fin.1 (R) 6.4650 -0.0061 474 . 825 6.4630 6.4459 - - - - - 

South Koras (Won) 1307.31 +9.35 599 - 762 131057 1302.15 - - - - - 

Taiwan (TS) 42.6406 +0228 299 - 512 42.7497 4Z5444 - - - - 

Thailand <Bt) 40.7702 *03017 464 - 940 40.8380 406590 - - - - 

tSOfl raws tor Oct 34. BOttflw «raOs In Ihe Pound Scot nhla show only the last thrao daconal ptuem. Fonwd nan are not (Stochf quoted to 
tut we impead ny cuient merest mn 5evirw wdH cucttaied fry ihe Bmk of EnsMnd- Ben average 1BB5 > 10Q.Bd. Olhr and Md+Ma in be 
die D(A» Spat damred from THE WT.VRBJTERS CU03B+G SPOT RATES. Same velun era roamed by Ole F.T. 


Oct 25 Clcisirn Change B Idlafter Day’s ndd One m ont h Throe merriha One year J.P Morgan 

rrtd-polnl m day apmad Wgti tew Rale %PA Rale %PA Rate MPA Index 

Austria (Sch) 105065 -00275 060 - 110 105380 104580 105085 0.0 10.5083 0.0 10.4336 07 104.6 

Belgium (BFt) 307400 -009 200 - 600 308170 30^540 30.74 Oil 30.71 0.4 3088 03 106.1 

Denmark (DKr) 58285 -0.0245 250 - 280 55461 5.8060 5.8302 -06 5.83S5 -OB 5.8815 -09 105.6 

FWand (FM) 45385 -00255 315 - 415 4.S0S3 4.5034 4.5372 -02 4^32 0.4 *.5385 0.0 33,7 

France (FFt) 5.1092 -0021 077 - 107 5.1263 50885 5.1113 -OS 5.1092 OA 5.103 Ol 106,6 

Germany <D| 1.4920 -0305 917 - 922 1.4975 1.4656 1.4921 -Ol 1.4903 0 4 1.48 04 107.4 

Greece (Dr) 229.950 -04 Boo - 100 230900 22&900 230.24 -IS 230.775 -1.4 23 5 32 S -1.4 68.8 

hetand (K) 1.6163 +0.0101 1SS - 170 1.8182 1A0S3 1.6182 0.0 16164 OXJ 1.8033 0.6 

Italy (L) 162760 -3 B80 - 810 1532.66 152300 1532X15 -3.6 1639S -31 1581 -35 75.1 

Luxembourg (Lft) 30.7400 -0.09 200 - 600 30.6170 335540 30.74 0.0 3 0.71 0.4 3088 03 108.1 

Netherlands (H) 1-B737 -0.0043 734 - 738 1^780 1.8654 1.8738 -0.1 1.B719 U4 1.6814 0.7 106.0 

Norway (NKr) 6.4900 -O.Q22 865 • 915 33490 6.4391 6.4937 -0.7 85065 -1-0 6.5425 -0.8 96.8 

Portugal (Es) 1S2A40 -0.79 290 - 390 1S3JOO 151.980 153016 -6 3 154 US -4.6 158.09 -3 JO 95.1 

Spin (Pea) 124625 -033 500 - 550 124.830 124.050 12 4.81 -2.7 123.78 23 1 27379 -25 80.8 

Sweden (SKr) 7.0506 -041502 528 - 603 7.1288 7.0283 7.0714 -ZS 7.1041 -2.7 7.2691 -30 8 23 

swteeriend (SF«7 1.2450 -0.0015 445 - 456 1-2487 13361 13*37 13 13402 16 1323 13 108.7 

UK (E) 1.6367 +00087 384 - 370 1.6410 1.6329 1.6361 0.4 1.6356 0.3 1.6252 0.7 B9.0 

Ecu - 13743 *0.003 738 ■ 748 1.2804 1.2715 1-2736 0.7 1^732 0 * 1J2712 02 

Stmt - 1-48879 - - * - - ■ 


Argentina (Peso) 1.0001 +0.0001 000 - 001 1.0001 0.9999 

BmzS (Ff) 08530 *0.002 520 - 5*0 0.8540 0-8S20 

Canada (CS) 1.3492 -0.003 489 - 494 13533 1-3489 1^491 Oil 

Mexico (New Peso) 3.4280 *0.0105 255 - 305 3*305 3.4160 3.429 -4X4 

USA (S) .... 

RadScTMiMe East/AMcs 

Austrafa (AS) 1.3576 +00002 674 - 683 1-3594 1.3587 1-3562 -02 

Hong Kong (HKS) 7.7275 +00002 270 - 280 7. 7280 7.7270 7.7273 0.0 

India pa) 313700 +0.0012 660 - 750 31.3750 31.3650 31.456 -33 

Jap» (V) 96-8600 -0355 £00 - 000 97.1600 96.4200 96.63 2-8 

Malaysia (MS) Z-5435 -0.0048 480 - 490 2.5527 2,5445 2.6393 4.3 

New Zealand (HZ!) 1.B326 +0.0006 319 - 332 1.6335 1.6319 1.63.16 -0.7 

PWippines (Peso) 2S.1000 +0.15 000 - 000 253000 24.8000 

Saud Arabia (SR) 3.7506 - 604 - 508 3.7508 3.7504 3,7519 -0 4 

Slngapare (SS) 1.4707 -0.0026 702 - 712 1.4716 1.4695 1.4894 1.1 

1.3*87 0.1 1JS4 -0.4 

3.4308 -03 3.4382 -03 

13689 -0.3 13862 -0.6 

7.728 0 0 7.743 -03 

313 -23 

96-06 33 93395 33 

2528 33 2.8015 -2.1 

1.6354 -0.7 13*07 -0.5 




504 - 508 













702 - 712 













920 - 935 













400 - 600 










eh iha and 


Oct 25 Shoo 7 days One Three 

term notice month months months 

BtHton Franc 4JJ - 4fi *S - *H S - 4^ 5’+ - 5Js 5A - 5« 

Danish Krona S*i - 6 5*i • 5»2 5^-5^ 6‘a - m f! 

D-Mark *% - 4* *B - *JJ 4ft - *U 5i - 5,‘* - 5A 

Dutch Guidar 5 - *^ 5 - 5 -fl 6A - Sjs 5% • 5J* 

French Franc S* - (At SA * 5& S& - ■& 5*» - 5^ 6% ■ «i 

Portuguese Esc. 9 - 0» 9** - 9 9^ - Of. 1^4-10 1 0h - Wa 

Spanish Peeata 7>j - 7,». 7&-1H 7^ ■ 7», 7« - 7« - B«4 

Staring Sh - 6** 5^-5^ o\ - 5,’, 6-8^ 8 & - ft* 

Swiss Franc A - 2 \ - 3^8 3\-8\ Alt - 3U 4 ^ • 4l * 

Can. Oafar 5 - *{| 5 - 5 - *^ 5lz - 5% 6*8 - « 

US D0*» 4\ - 4*3 4JJ - 4}i 5 - 4* 514 • 5& 6 - 57, 

ttaflan Ufa fl - 7h 6^ - 8^ S,i - 8& 8}l - 8fi 9% - 9>+ 

Y« - 2A ■ 2i 2A - 2U 2h - 2ft 24 - 2,; 

Aden SStafl - l\ 1* - 1% 2.1 - 2ft JA - 3ft 3h - 3».' 

awn toon mas are cafl tor ew US Dour and V«n. others: two days' notice. 

M THMBt MOUTH HBOH PUTUHS8 (MA71F) Paris Werhank offered nMe 

Swiss Franc 
Csn. Oater 
US Doter 
ttaDan Ura 

Aden SSfrig 


S«tl price 




E&L vol 































5!i - 5ft 
5ft -5k, 
6*, -81« 
105, ■ 

9ft - 9 
7ft - 7ft 
jft ■ 4*2 
7- Eft 
6ft - ft 7 . 
10ft - 10ft 

2 {l ■ aft 

4 - Oft 

Open bn. 

THREE MOUTH WWOOUjB (UFTET Sim points tri 100% 

Open Sen price Change High Low Est vd Open mt 

















; OJFFE)* DMim points of 100% 






Est vol 

Open kiL 














94 38 
















93 56 



i month moum wrrjwni nmm (uffq tiooom powsonoo% 


Sett price 




Est- vol 

Open inL 










• 8087 
























South Korea (Won) 798.745 +1.45 700 - 790 79&790 797200 801.7*5 -L5 805245 -3-3 823.745 -3.1 

Taiwan (T5) 26.0528 - 510 -545 28.0650 26.0260 £6.0728 -09 26.1128 -03 - 

Thatend fBt> 24.9100 -031 000 - 200 2*9200 243900 24.9625 -U5 25.11 -33 2639 -2.7 

tSOR rate tar Oct 34. BMoflsr sprawls m the IMtor Spot tstM show or*y de as thn» dacand places. Forward rates wa not tSreedy twotod to die nota 

nu ara arpOed by cwrant Interest rtoos. UK. bdwid 4 ECU are quoted In US cwitocy. 4P. Mcxyan nonwal nacre Oct £4. Base avoraga 1990=100 


Sett price 




Est vol 

Open let. 

































■ mm MONTH SCU FUTURBS (UFFE) Eculm points ot 100% 


Sen price 




&t. vol 

Open mt 

































• ufpe Um traded on APT 



Oct 25 



















































































































































































































































































































































Drew). Kroner. French Franc. Nanregm Kroner, and SwedMi Kitnor pw 10: Bdgian Franc. Yen. Escudo, Ura i 
■ D-MARK FUTURBS OMMI DM 125,000 per DM ■ JA 

I CtfArf) Yen 123 par Yen 1 00 






Est vol 

Open frit 






















0 6709 


























■ SWISS FRANC FUTURBS (I MM) SFr 125.000 per SFr 

■ STEHUNO FUTURCSdMM) £62,500 per E 










































Oct 25 Over- 7 days One Three Six One 

nigm nonce month monihe months year 

Interbank Steriino 7 - 4ft 5ft ■ 5ft 5ft -5ft 6 - 5ft 6ft - 6ft 7ft - 7ft 

Storing CC*5 S» • 6ji 5C • 5(2 6ft - 6ft 7ft ■ 7ft 

Treasurv BOB - 5,i - 5ft 5ft - 5ft 

Bank Btfls - - 5ft • 6ft 5ft - 5ft 6ft - 6ft 

Local authority deps. 5ft ■ Sft 5ft ■ 5ft 5ft - 5ft 5ft -5ft 6ft • 6ft 7 ft . 63 

Eocwtt Mariiot ckioa 6ft - 5 5i« - 5*« 

UK duo Ting hank txuo Undeig ro» 5ft per cant from September 12. 199* 

Up to 1 1-3 3-6 6-9 9-12 

month month months months months 

Cots of Ta* oco. I'd 00. GOO) 1ft 4 3ft 3ft 3ft 

Com cl dep undo, ciOOPQQ a i'jr» OopoWU wS ttm lor esan Voc. 

icMci raw 0> Account &42£0pc. ECGO Sxod rare Stlg. bpad Flraor. Make uo any Sop 3A 
IKU. rvr* k, period del ». 1904 BNrrS. 190+. SchonMS SSI* Z.ObfK Botarenc* rota tar 

period Sep I. ’994 10 ScP 30, 1094. Schomn IV S V S-hUpC. Rnonca House Base Rase epc from Oct 
I. 199+ 

■ TKRE1 HO NTH STEHUNC FUTURES (UFFQ £300.000 points of 100% 


Oct 23 

Ecu oaru 


against Ecu 

on day 

can. rata 

% spread 
v weohaat 





































































Sec price 




Eat vol 

Open tet 



93 43 









- 0.10 















91 . 52 

-0.7 7 





Ecu cortoto rales »er by e»» E uatwi Commi a eon. Cmandre are In d w osnreig r^atoe aesnpth. 
PsT L o na t g i dswges ate tor Ecu: a pesshredteedi i totos awed, eenonoy. nhregmoe Sw.i da 
rastobem mu two spreodK the psreemsos dflsrnre britrMn the kuil insist end Ecu ernu* rmr 
ter a currency, aid ttre mamm p ermuted prre no qr d m WScn ct the currency's insrtwt rata from IB 
Ecu central rats. 

(irraro aMOng and wewi Lfras u spenrtod from 6BM. Arfrusonesr cglc i istod by too F s ii dfrl Tfriwe. 

■ PHILADELPHIA SC £/SOPTX»S £31350 {cents per pomp 

Traded on APT. All Open nterau Sga. ore tor piantain day. 





- CALLS — 



— PUTS — 
































1.60 . 






o. is 

a 84 





Preufrxa day's wt, Cafrs 5,738 Ftaa 3 JCC . Pre». ayi open mu GtSa 43&B98 Puts 382-877 

Futures Lid 


F°r hmher information please contact ■■ 
Philip O'Neill If 

3C TeJ: 07) J29 A3JJ. Em: 07J J29 J919 — 

Adams Company S7S 

Aiuoc THst Bar* . .....5.75 

AIB Bar* 5.75 

•Heray Answerer 5.7S 

BorkdfBaroda 575 

Bam SSHd Vtasayn- 5.75 

Bark of Cyprus 5.75 

Bank of Wand 5?5 

Bank of India 5.75 

BJrtdfScodatf S.75 

Barctrys&v* 5.75 

ewSkdiHWEasi. . 575 
•Brown Co Uri .5.75 

CLBarirNddortand .. 5 75 

CrttonkNA 575 

CfydemteSank .535 

TheCooperaDw Bet*. 5.75 

CoucaSCa .5.75 

CflKJtlyonnas 575 

Cyprus Popular Bank. .STS 

Duncan Lwm 5.75 

ExfflerBar* Umtod ... 6.75 
Rnanoal & Qan Bretk _ 63 
•Rodort Fleming & Co... 5.75 

Orafcrk S.75 

•OunnessMafian 5.75 

Ha» Bank AG Zurich . 5.75 

•HamBrnsBank 5.75 

Heritable 8 Gen Inv Bk. 575 

MSamuaf. 5.7S 

C HQore&Co .578 

Kongtong 6 Shanghai 5.75 
JutonKodgoBanfr .. . 575 
•UKpt* Joseph 6 Sotb 575 

UoydaBenk -5T5 

MegfrrsfBanktM .375 

Mriand Barit 575 

* Maun Banking 6 

NatWesn*ister - 575 

•fioa&ums 575 

* Rmtiugha Qusrartoo 

CupuaBui Urnnod b no 

tonga adimsed es 
ADriMiglrriUutioa 8 
Royal BkcfScaOM .. 57S 
•Srritna WtfcnsnSecs. 375 

T5B 37S 

•UrdedBkol Kuwait.- 575 
Unay That Ba* Pic... 575 

Vtte*#n-nust _575 

WhOeawsyLaklaw..— 575 
Yorirshire Bank .575 

• Mantws ol London 

” In aOmWSjaben 

Afl Open (Merest ■» tor urewaus rtoy 






















a 02 





a 25 












EoL VOL Bta. CeUe 477S Alts 4520. PreMou a Q»/ » spot ltd. Cate 205214 Ms 180748 
■ EURO SWISS FRANC OPTIONS (UFFE) SFr 1m point* ot 100% 

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M 1 B 72 SS 3 J 9 B 6 aaB S 47 X 40 1 R 2 T 77 SX 90 20*4 

PCfto» 197 H 

M 263182 268646 7BBLT7 6/2 

M Ontarto(l/i/BD) 20213 2037 * 2 ®*B 2m80 J® 

M IMng(1/U8CI 1072 J KB 39 10774 1136.10 3/2 

185740 zrm 

90460 5/5 

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C 8 S 0 Str (EM S 3 ) 2 B 7.1 2 BB 4 2684 28*60 31/1 

Craft MtatigmM) 37644 380.79 37832 46866 2)3 

TMM MB 0101 ) 10120 B 102444 102160 122325 1/2 

37894 25710 

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134825 136428 136341 W 4 ZHJ 9/2 
M 434*14 456190 3511800 13 ® 

IfeUs Wfc+(I 975 ) 
CbnvMtof (ISJS) 
Pcrtotog ( 4 /U 83 

U 419294 425427 427842 2010 

» 428800 426570 480890 230 

66 MW «l 2073.48 218280 1/2 

ywMB aV4 
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Cap. 40 tl/706) 206144 « 206157 243804 372 


OMSBMIprMQ 105453 106602 106346 121110 2B B 

tM (tap 0/103 306834 311315 306460 310837 471 

8TAflS77) 26074 20024 28942 3Z2B60 1872 

SE/H-S'pmCWn) 58038 56334 56146 64(41 471 

M8NK 365530 368130 381115 387836 35BU5 387636 4122 

(31/1) m P17l*q 07/38 

Hoop BMil 9574 8596 9561 10681 B5J4 10977 5499 

(21/1) 04710 08/IM3) fl/lCWI) 

T/BSpcrt 1475.78 150947 151139 118329 143850 VKU3 1232 

02) (871(4 Wm (677732} 

UIHn 177.43 17947 18040 2E7J8 17545 26546 1050 

(371) (200 Bl/WJ) (8/4/32) 

OJ M. 00 * Ngn 382341 {B 214 B > Law 3840 H 8 (SBB 149 ) (I t— B M 0 ( 

DWl Mtf> 9011^8 (1811.15 > Law 385342 (388443 ) (Actual 

PGA Gen ( 31 / 12 /BO) M 55847 55714 ) 587020 19710 3 BOUO 474 

copn mnssy i/ 83 ) 34200 34722 34748 41539 as 33 a. 11 7/10 
m GWHripHMO! 19104 1946,1 10445 167206 4/2 1 WV 10 371 

JSftM (260/70 23Q2J* 23194 23580 80440 7/9 
JSE ML (2661/78) 65384? 66034 BBZ44 673740 1M 

SSF 00 01/12190) 12ZT46 (23173 123746 M 

CSC *0pi/l 2787) 182*42 154158 164248 29*43 2/2 

122 X 48 25710 
182*42 25710 

ttmQapeanftcr 100142 lostss loeeuj* tnxa iano 

HattU SE PO71205) 28830 29334 293.14 35931 31/1 


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46043 46*89 46685 48140 43192 46248 *40 

K/2J (4« 0WM5 (WW 

64158 55242 55532 58042 51045 56643 342 

(150 (71*9 {1SWB4J (21*92) 

4228 4242 43.14 48M *139 4640 644 

(140 (40 (26098 (1710774) 

25350 25159 25654 28721 2*114 2B7J1 *46 

03 m p®94) C5HT42) 

453.73 *935 457.76 48746 42247 48146 2931 

Cm (2616) 0/Z/B4) (9/12/72) 

78121 76538 76U4 88343 68178 80U3 5447 

(180 0(0 n«®M (31/1(079 

fH/W«3l/l2«8» 75142 76748 7BX7S 869Z7 IBS 

Q»™Ql)art«n/lZ63| 21363 W 21807 *bd 20 
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78244 5710 
211830 5710 
19689 7 A 0 

SwM AM (31/1263) 115846 117354 116062 142X34 31/1 
SBC Grata (1/407) 66048 88967 BBUO 10BU9 31/1 

■807 5710 

Dow Jonas Intt Dfc. YMd 

Mm 8S3V1M0) 82644 83629 83255 1W69 1871 

Hsstag01/»W 924650 836*29 333853 OOtM 4/1 
BSESm/IOTf) 435558 432857 43HXS2 462857 120 
jjjtaMQlflWMMB 51*53 51248 6US7 81248 3/1 
EEQ 0wM4/U8Q 179044 181058 182142 208216 2W 

838844 40 

lUQBPr&IMar W .374230 683878 710U3 9W 

ttSttSETPOWT^ 150158 33 152248 179333 471 

1 M« 

ttnMOnpfM MBS 

5(8163 190 

8 8 P Kid. Dtr. ytau 
S & P (nd. ratio 

Oct 21 Oct 14 Oct 7 Yost ago 

2.72 2.71 2.79 2.79 

Oct 19 Oct 12 Oct 5 Ywr ago 

Z38 2J37 2.43 2.42 

21.11 2041 20J3 2841 

2*73*70 2380507 2480343 

345400 91 

MS C*MM [1/1/70)8 6294* 6315 83*8 04*00 20 

Open Lstsst Change )igh Low EstvoL Opanint 
Dec 48255 46150 - -055 48140 45956 87,038 221.738 

M a 46350 46*70 -035 405.40 432.40 500 11,943 

JU1 - 46850 - 46950 46650 266 2,856 

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NOV 18225 18315 <1*0 1S41J0 18075 M76 4564 w 

Dec 1832.0 104OO -1&0 18485 18185 2594 2B54S TMteop t 

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MHO 300 (1/1O0Q *52— 

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2nd Sactn (47100 219832 220155 222839 35CJB 6/7 

I4U7 471 
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traded pics n0 0024 Oct 21 Oct 20 

1838000 1M 41 HMWtSE 2E787 308» 3a3« 

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Gn Bk 1309300 < 7 J) +» MSiS ftWffS TPtt 

tmm 1047«0 1M 4H KN 

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W 1610300 73 -1H Haas 683 627 890 

TcMdoos 1489300 em -44 Mi 1,499 1388 1.493 

Com 2393300 3744 -44 Unchanged 704 772 896 

Can nyc 23S0300 94t +m Maw HUM 26 22 46 

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in the UK for years. And now it is available from anywhere in the 

if you would like further details fill in the coupon below or call 
the FT Cityline Help Desk on (071) 873 4378. 

FT Business Enterprises Limited, Number One Southwark Bridge, 
London SE1 9HL Registered in England Number 980896. 


7 AffB?A 1477 aV 4 / 

Complete details below and send to: FT Cityline International, 
Number One Southwark Bridge, London SE1 9HL 



Postcode: Tel:. 

4 pm eta* Octobers 


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Telephone Answering Machine 
Automatic Paper Cutter 
60 Locations Automatic Dial 


financial times 


OCTOBER 26 1994 


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30% Z1*0aCM 132 05 S 20 

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32* 32% 
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20 852 39% 38% 39% -% 

27 748 12% 12* 12% 

25 1731 30* 28* 2»% -1 

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20 303 33 32* 33 +% 

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47% 37inroBM 
22% 1ft IBM 
54* 440 
49* 3ft UC GkM 
12* ftlmoDri 
18% 15Mkmnt 
31* 2T%tnra 
97* TfttoMTX 
30% IBtadtaCrth 
23% 18% MEratgy 
21* 1i%tadonFond 

OX 08 20 1771 
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11 57 
IX 84 10 IX 
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15* 10%Mnen 
41% 32% tatted 
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32% ZOhtarReg 
20* 15% tatarera 
3% 1%MUce 
78* 51% BU 
22* 18* UFmB 
: 44% 35%Wff 
7ft 15% MU 
80* 60’lWPtW 
34% 27* ktpltl 
11% 7*tataaUm 
3ft 21 kadV 
3% 4% taTTAH 
34 17* MObubT 
24% 13 tat fed! 

4 * 2 tat Tecta 

54* 42% Intel 
24% IB* fcnalGSE 
35% 28* tptoo Enl 
11% 8% MM 6m 

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378 85 2 

104 Ol Z1K 
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177 14 14 XI 
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050 52 3 83 
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040 1.42Z7 3713 
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13 IX 
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34 33* 33* 
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25 24% 24% 
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3* 3 3* 

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23 25 » 

24* 24 24l 2 

50 SO 50 
31% 39% 31* 
X X 39 
43* 46* 43* 
19* U% 19 
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42* 41% 41% 

1ft 8* to* Find 

35% 22% H Cap 
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0 328 
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75 4S5 
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IX 84 11 245 
112 7.1 14 266 
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007 09 171 

64 1775 
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34% 34 34* 

7% 7% 7% 


4 4 4 

A d* A 
23 22% 22% 
16% 15% 16% 

41* 40% 41 

41* 40% 41 

17* 17% IT* 
77 74% 78* 

32* 31* 32* 
7% d7% 7% 
21% Zl* 21% 

* A * 
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51 80* SO* 
TO* TO 1ft 

32* 21% 32 

84% 84* 84% 

45* 37% JRherPPx 
46 37% JBwrL 
14* 7% Jackpot En 

ift JBeohf Big 

14% 8 Jakarta ft 

a * Jameaem 

103 MAtoPTX 
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55* XJnraU 
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41* 4ft 

21 * 21 * 

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40% -% 

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10* 10* 10* 

17% 17* 17% +% 

32* 21* KUIR Dicn 
26% 2i*KN Energy 
| X 57 K»C1 45 
28% 23% KnhPPl! 

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4* 2* Km* Swr 
23* TftSnQP 
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58% 47%Kritogg 
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11% 9KanpiUn 
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51 raxariMc 
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29* Ifttoyrinlnl 

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44* 33*Kpgm 
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81 48* KflfflUd 
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27* 27 

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2 * 02 * 
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38% -% 
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29% 23%LflwtrCp 

24% 24% ft 
12% ft 
57 B7% ft 
45% 46 

2ft 2ft ft 

» 25% ft 
12* 12* ft 
14% 14% ft 
10* 10* ft 
32* 34 -1* 

12 * 12 * 

20% 20% ft 

61% 47* Uto 
32* 16%Ltatk 

11% +% 
16% ft 
24% ft 
24% ft 

44% 35*Un« 

20% 15% Linen NO* 
70 S7LnagLPS 
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79* 58%Utehd 
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24* 15* IjhLi 
39% 21* LngriV 
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42% 33* LOW 
32 XLautallS 
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48 29* irate 
40% 2B%UM«a< 
21% 14 LTV 

S* 3*UVHS 
38% 26* Lntrzl 
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39% 28%utamkE 
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32% 20%Lj«MP 

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115 U 15 471 

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044 2Z 6 305 

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128 32 101878 
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IV 1.1 9 321 
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086 20 17 687 
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046 1.4 S » 

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38* ft 

21 * 20 % 
IB* IS^g 

18* 18 
12 % 12 % 
18% 18% 
33% 33 

20% 20 
38% 38 

14% 14* 
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1% 1% 
9% 69* 
27* 2ft 
60% X 
18* 17* 
35* d3S 
15* 16* 
57 (MB* 

23* 2ff& 

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44* 43% 


4 63* 
17% 16% 
34 33% 
17% 17 

40 36* 
29 29 

45 43* 
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38* 37% 
19* 18% 

32* 31% 



29* 28% 

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18* ft 

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12% ft 

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25* 22* Mauris PI 
64% 53* WPOQ 
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23* 1S% Marti IV 
32* 24% Mm 
68% 73% Mated. 
29* 20*Mririna 
51 «t% MBMar 
39% 22*MaraaC 

27 812 59* 38% 58% +% 
54 »1Q2*1(n*U1% -% 
43 794# 43% 43 43* ft 

H 4796 10* 9% 10 ft 

53 2281 20% SO* 2P 0 
0 22 1* 1* 1* 

78 124 35% 35* 3S% 
1311803 33* 32* 32% <1* 
8 202 22* 022 22* -* 
31 68 27 28% 27 ft 

17 218 23% S3* 23% ft 
X 509 1ft 16% 15% 

25 9396 10% W* 10* ft 

IV 18 22 12 X 25% 2B 

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1.15198 8 117 at 5% 6% 

011 00 17 2Z7 21% 21% 21% 
028 10 22 2068 29* 28* 28% 
200 18 16 848 76% 78 76* 

7 313 26% 25% 25% 
OX 11 10 11X 4ft 44* 45 

072 11 18 2213 23% a* 23* 

11% MwsTsch 013 10 12 4077 12% 12 12* 
8% Maraud PI 084 07 78 7% 7* 7* 

34% 29* Maenad 
17% 14*MiBcl 
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180 08 9 21 32* 32 32 

14 5 15% 18* 15* ft 

107 O 8101 2 105 165 IX +1% 
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27* IftUBNACOqi 0.72 18 18 8882 24% 24* 24* 

27% 71% HcOtolV 004 10 21 34 23% 23% 23% 

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31% 28% McDendS 2X 00 317 28% d28* 28% 

18% ISHMeOankw 032 IB 5 28 13 12% 12% 

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127% 102* MdDnOg IX 1.1 13 1734 124% 122% 123% 

77* 82* Uctetai 202 32318 584 73 72% 72% 

1B37 S 02* McKean IX 1.7 28 7053 100% SB* 99% 

53% 39*M0Mto IX If 234101 48% 47* 48 

22* 17*MBnatm 044 10 47 52 22 21* 22 

35% raMomuet 165 90 14 791 30 <09* 2^2 

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g a*MritattOp OX 22 19 1220 23* 
28% Metaq BhH x 180 90 114 27 

28% UrikHBWx 20Q 90 114 27dra* 25% 

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10% 8* tekftlz 0X110 98 8% dB* 8* 

57 30* MereSl 1X 20 19 1589 44% 44 44% 

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18* 13 Manny ft 032 25 25 3253 Ifttftt* 12% 
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45% 32%HaAyn OX 15 G8GM 3ft 35* 38* 

4% l*llenyfeM OX 30 0 IK 

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55 45MabElM 300 LB 200 45*2 48 

24* 14% MeuFhtx 080 15 11 579 23 22' 

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10* 7*Mf 8 242 7% 7] 

3% ftUBctathror OX 15237 ZlOO 2% 2% 

1ft 4% UdAnMtata (UB 04 18 2503 5 4% 

10* 8%MtecaR OX 09 13 8% dB% 

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57* 48% W 1J8 12 184734 54* 54* 

27 1B%ursgefee 3S5Z36 21* 20% 

22% 18*Mk»toA aa 17 22 105 17% 17% 

23* 18* HtaHEnB 063 30 a 17% 17* 

7* 2% UWOaip 14 145 3% S* 

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S nMcM 3A0 4.1 18 3872 83% 80% 

9%MriealW 6 1» 13* 12% 


Si W% +2^ 

12% 12* ft 

12* ftHariUdi OX 11 13 4 8% 9% 8% ft 
19% 11% HacMute 019 10 10 291 1ft Ift 14% ft 

88* 7Z% teanta 152 33 18 Z707 77% 78% 

10* ft Hart Btoo 078 102 2 30 7% 7% 
25%21%tertmfe IV 70 11 470 23 22% 

20* lBMroUgofli SI IX 04 8 140 18* 618 18* 

20% 16* Moore CnD 004 40 27 740 19 18% IB 

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11% ftMerganBroa 1.18122 290 9% 9* 

89 S7irganJFFf 5V 70 11 87% 087 

12 Morgen Kp 032 20 5 Z1V 

290 9% 9* 
11 87% 087 

S 4* Morgen 5V 
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20% 16 Martin OV 11 

37* 35* MrtMl (U4 10 
57 4Z*JBnts 029 05 
ft 7*kktnOp 063 88 
11% 8%MnP0tfT 072 11 
9% 8*Mw*tortjr 063 7.7 
1 13* 9*ifcf«a««KZ078 80 

4 192 5* 5 

IV 10 8 610 61% 60% 

OV 5.1 a 914 IB 15% 

044 10 B 207B 2ft 27* 

028 05 15)4390 50 Eft 

0 23 « JJ 

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OX 7.7 133 6* 9% 

078 80 732 ft dB* 

47% 31% MphyO IX 19 22 473 44* 43% 4ft ft 

13% 9% MywslE 022 10 18 U 12* 12* 12* ft 

29% 75% NyterrEVi 020 OJ 29 6383 u2S% 29% 29% 


66% GftKCHCore 
[ 64 43% Sawj 

! 20% WoaCh 

15% 10% Httitl 
87% 44% (fctaSk 
42% SftNrafcWrih 


14 7% to sand 

18% T ft Natron to x 
19 7%NeanikEq 
24% 1A fewdaPw 
6% 4 Nan Am Mx 

39 28%NEngB 

13% 11*Hm*6TOsrar 

27% 1S%fe*Jnta 
24% 20% Men PteR 
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23% 18% Newel 
17* 13%Newhrii 

« 37% too* 
91 48% NriW 
B* 38 MegN 

82* 22* HritriM 

40 32*l«fff 
7% 4% Nora An 
74% SB* talks 
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16% 12* WlFtakx 
10* 4% IE Fed 
25%£S% NEW 
44% 38% lOPer 
1% Htatagrai 
47% 34**910 
29% ZBKriharPab 
28* 22* Hanoi 
11* 5% NMX 
19% iftNnacm 
27% 22MretB 

IV 20 14 82 47% 
IV 10 16 SuX* 
OX 10 44 208 59% 
098 20 16 614 33 

072 12 8 40 22* 
032 13 5534 14 

13* 18 10 5011 48* 
205 70 15 88 35* 

156 08 13 11 39 

IV 44 11 2873 27 

044 11 24 234 2D* 
38 459 5 

5 2* 

IX 80 13 783 29% 
(US 1213610400 IS 
IV 47 15 87 41* 
11 7812 15% 
IX 40 17 273 28% 
8 32 13% 
1 487 12% 
6V1L7 25 61% 

IV 41 11 1214 2ft 
ora i.4 xi re 14% 

85 36681110% 
IV 8.1 11 215 20 

OU 111 380 4* 

130 70 10 513 30% 
012 10 403 12* 

IX 7.1 12 114 31* 
IX 05 22 375 20% 
IV 70 9 1003 18% 
040 10 9 4023 21 

040 20 41 87 14% 

049 12 38 IS 4 41% 
048 1.1 38 1265 42% 
017 04 15 1642 48% 
HO 90 ZlOO 40 
1.12 17 7 <581 13 

OV 10 14 703 61 

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028 47 3587 6* 

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046 1.1 S 1682 40% 
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040 27 17 1 045 10* 
120 114 0% 
1 JB 7J 14 814 23 

164 80 142758 44 

4 W H 
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024 14 400 10* 

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65* 68% +1* 

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14 15 +7 

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29 2ft 
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18% 18% 
20% S0% 


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27* 27% +1.% 
11 * 11 % +* 

11 * 11 % 
26% 27% 
fi% 6 
33% 33% 

60% bS 

40 40% -% 

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43% ft 

44% 44% ft 

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23% 24 


Mgh L»rr«»* 

17% 14% Mi Cz ten 
18% 15NUNVMP 
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28% IBNUCWp 
17* l4fta»W 
13% n*KureenCl 
13* 11%NW6»MI 
17 13% Wwra KG 
12 9%NKWriiNM 
18* 14% NBietnNP 

16% 13% Jf 
16* «%M«enP» 
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Hte tea 
14% dl4* 
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63% 61% 
13* 17% 
14* d14 

11 % 1 <% 
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10% W% 
14* rfl4% 
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10% ft 

13% ft 

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20% 15%0*h® 

29% 19* Orioaaod Mn OV 
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27 16* (XMOepri 
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97 BO OMDE704 704 
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37* 29% Otoh CSE 206 
GO* VOtaCp 220 
41* 26% OneteriB 018 
91% 43% (totem W 
17 13* Ontads Lid 048 

20* 18% Onerax J-W 
28% 22%0nmCapz 100 
11% 8%Op0StiH5 054 
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41* 2ft(Wigeltox2X 
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ra is* ftyriEo 040 
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28% 17* Or’eSh 060 
17* 13* OweniM OiB 
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31 187 

IS 671 
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40 74 4019 
35 3495 
60 14 499 
14 SG 
LOUIS 3098 
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07 2 

90 2 

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19 18 1354 

05 33 HO* 
25 19 Me 
13 13 7 

L4 II 134 
LB 11 96 

09 94 

9.i ra 

14 7 

80 9 141 
30 22 129 

20 7 9« 

29 4 2356 
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13 1596 
20 12 384 

10% *% 
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17 18% 
18% 18% 
51% 51% 
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ra* ora 
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»% 33* 
56% 55% 
36% X 
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13% «% 

20% «* 
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17% IT* 
22% 622% 
9> Z £% 
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30* 29% 
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29* ra 

14* 13% 
19% 19% 
21 % 21 % 
14* 14* 
31% 31 

»* » 


33% ♦* 
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17% 41* 


5% 4* 

17% ft 
29 ft 
13% 4* 
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43* 33PW1 
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42% 34%FPGh 
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32* 2i%PacSden 

PNC Fn a 1.40 80 

FPGh 1.16 19 

PS Group OV 60 

PS 104 50 

Pse Am Inc 1 JO 80 

IV 30 10 1W 37 38% 38% 
1.40 60 7 4111 23%dO% 23* 
1.18 19 14 8775 39% 39% 36% 
OX 02 5 21 9% 9% 9% 

104 50 13 1868 23* 23* 

IV 80 102 14U13% 

012 04 S 1*1 u35 3Z* 

1 08 L4 12 3178 1ft 16% 

lift 15%Nfepx 
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9* 4% MACom 0 532 ft 8% 5% 

b5* 82% tonne iv 20 Siam ss* 6ft S4% ft 

40* 33% MCN 1J2 4.7 14 157 3ft 38* 3ft 

7% 4% MDCMdpe OX 10 10 SS «% d4% 4% 

32* 25% MOUfea IV 50 13 IX 28 27% 27* +* 

9% 8* MF6 Darts 074 02 «48 8% dft ft ft 

7% 5% MFSGorMr 050 80 9 701 B (55% 5% 

Ift I3%M9PRta 088 01 IS 111 14% 14% 14% -% 

39% 22*MBMGnnd 17 3819 32* 31 31% •* 

21* 13* MacFrB 17 239 20* 19% 20* 4* 

18% 12% MagnuC 37 ISOS 1ft 17* 17* -% 

16% 12% Magneto 2D 391 1ft 14 14* -% 

29% 17% MlltyitaF 002 01 107 22% 22% 22* ft 

3ft 2B*Mneta 058 10 27 1039 31* 31 31* ft 

IV 90 10 K5 20% 20* 

Pae(£ iX 80 9 5596 22* 21% 22% 4* 

prana zia 7.1 0812548 30* 30% ft 

PriMH 0.48 11 3 154 15% 15* 15% 

M 037 10 M 1082 18* 18 18* 4* 

PanbdE 084 17 17 Btt 22% H% 2Z* 

PBftEHdX OX 15 23 im 31% 31* 31 }a ft 

Panto 10 504 5% S* S* ft 

Pawn IX 12 33 1760 45 Aft 44% ft 

FttttPt 4 60 1* 61% 1% . 



33% +1% 
18% +% 

aft 4* 

22% 4% 

19% 18* PriMH 
20% 13*M 
25* 18%PanME 
35% 22% Perk Bald 
8% 4% Padto 
45% 34PriWn 
2% T%FtefckFI 

10* 7%FMMPrx 080 105 

106 7% 7% 7* 

3% 2% PritanQp 13 75 3* 3* 3* ft 

28% 23*P«bBi 102 80 10 3488 25 24* » *% 

68 5BP«1riPL40 410 79 3 57 * 57 57 -I 

a 47Peway IV 14 14 2840 49% 49* 49% ft 

27* 19% PBMPL 107 LB 9 1794 19% 19% 1?% ft 

31% 29%Pnfin 120 7.4 17 29% 29* 29% 4* 

58% 45% PnzOt 300 LI 12 2019 «% «8* «* ft 

32* 23% Peqte IV 80 11 1013 29% 27% 27% ft 

35* 25* Pep B0|M4 017 05 34 2928 35* 34 35* 4% 

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Equities mi x ed 
on drift by 
bonds, dollar 


Wednesday October 26 1994 


US indicator rescues bourses in mid-afternoon 

Wall Street 

US stock indices were mixed as 
share prices paralleled a uncer- 
tain drift by bonds and the dol- 
lar. writes Frank McGurty in 
New York. 

By 1 pm, the Dow Jones 
Industrial Average was 2.69 
better at 3,857.99. while the 
more broadly based Standard 
& Poor's 500 was up 0.72 at 
461.55. On the NYSE, volume 
was fairly heavy, with 193m 
shares traded by early after- 

In spite of the slight 
improvement in blue chips, 
most stocks suffered a setback 
during the morning. The Nas- 
daq composite was down 4.12 
at 757.09 and the American SE 
composite was off 1.13 at 
461.16. On the NYSE, declining 
issues led advances by more 
than two to one. 

Prom the opening it was evi- 
dent that the negative tone 
which has held sway over 
investors since last week had 
not budged overnight. The 
Dow industrials began with a 
16-point deficit, but managed 
to crawl back to their starting 
point thanks to some improve- 
ment in the bond market. 

Longer dated Treasuries, 
which were carrying their 
highest yields and lowest 
prices in more than two years, 
appreciated on the Conference 
Board's announcement that 
consumer confidence had 
sagged last month. But the 
ensuing bargain-hunting 
quickly petered out, and con- 
cerns over fresh supply and 
monetary policy soon reas- 
serted themselves. That left 
bonds to drift in and out of 
negative territory, as traders 
kept a wary eye on the dollar, 
which was showing little 
change on the day. 

It was a pattern which the 
leading stock indices would 
mirror until early afternoon, 
when the blue chips gained a 
firmer foothold on the positive 
side. The improvement came 
largely in response to a gener- 
ally favourable tranche of 
earnings news. 

The second round of results 
from the energy group pro- 
duced a few pleasant surprises. 
Texaco, one of the Dow compo- 
nents. gained $1% to $63 Vi after 
it posted third-quarter net 
income of 9S cents, about 25 
per cent better than analysts 
had forecast 

Exxon, another Dow indus- 
trial, earned a (ate reward for 
better-than-expected results 
revealed during the previous 
session. The stock climbed $1% 
to SSl'/i. 

But it was Mobil, up S3 to 
$83%, which fared the best 
among the oil companies. Dean 
Witter Reynolds lifted its rat- 
ing on the stock as the com- 
pany completed a study on 
ways to cut costs and restruc- 
ture its operations. 

USX-US Steel was marked 
down $2K to S36‘A even 
although its third quarter net, 
published after Monday’s close, 
jumped to $1.11 from 41 cents a 
year earlier. 

By contrast, Eastman Kodak 
suffered only minor damage 
after it posted earnings of 57 
cents, well under forecast 

The stock slipped just $'A to 
$47%, although it had fallen by 
nearly 11 per cent since mid- 
September on anticipation of 
just such a result. 

On the Nasdaq. Compu- 
ware's share price was ham- 
mered on weaker-th an -expec- 
ted results from the software 
developer. The stock was down 
more than 16 per cent at $39% 
in heavy volume of 5.8m 


Toronto stocks were hit by 
interest rate jitters and a 
shaky VS dollar, and the TSE 
300 composite index fell 17.62 
to 4,248.40 in 21.15m shares 
worth C$26&2Sm. 

Only four of 14 sub-indices 
were stronger at midday, 
although financial services 
recovered from lows to tirade 
off 19.08 at 3.061.71; communi- 
cations and media lost 42.50 at 
8,122.84 while the forestry 
group foil 39.74, or 0.9 per cent 
to 4J47.67. 

Mexico loses 2.5% 

Mexican stock prices fell 
sharply, hit by a lower-than-ex- 
pected earnings report from 
Telmex and its downgrading 
by US brokers. 

The IPC index of the 37 lead- 
ing shares was off 66.21 at 
2,567.41 in early trade, a fall of 
2.51 per cent. 

Telmex ADRs were down 
$3% at $56% on Wall Street, 
while in Mexico its L shares, 
which can be held by foreign- 
ers, were down 55 per cent. 

Telmex accounted for 22m of 
the 27m shares traded. 

Bear Stearns said that it low- 
ered its 1994 and 1995 earnings 

estimates and Merrill Lynch 
lowered its near-term and 
long-term rating. 

Telmex reported nine-month 
net earnings of 7.15bn new 
pesos, up slightly from the 
same 1993 period. Analysts had 
been expecting a strong rise. 

The Telmex holding com- 
pany, Grupo Carso, dropped 2.4 
per cent to 37.2 pesos. 

Elsewhere Grupo Casa 
Autrey, the pharmaceuticals 
group, was off 79 per cent and 
the construction company, Tri- 
basa, by 69 per cent Cemex, 
the cement company, was off 
29 per cent at 3L1 pesos. 

Johannesburg easier 

Shares on the Johannesburg 
stock exchange followed inter- 
national markets lower. Bro- 
kers remarked that golds with- 
stood an early assault from 
the stronger financial and 
commercial rands, but suc- 
cumbed later In the day after 
bullion edged off the $390 an 
ounce level. 

However, analysts said that 
they expected current declines, 
especially in the industrial 
sector, to be short-lived; medi- 
um-term prospects remained 

positive, especially if the 
recent stream of positive com- 
pany results continued. 

The overall index lost 50 to 
5,701. the industrial index fell 
64 to 6,539 and the gold index 
18 to 2,302. 

Adcock Ingram rose 10 cents 
to R13.85 ahead of improved 
results and Edgars rose R3 to 
R12 8 after announcing a 25 
per cent increase in interim 
earnings a share. 

De Beers slipped R1.25 to 
finish at R99.25. 

New lows for the dollar, and 
further weakness in bonds 
took bourses to falls averaging 
2 per cent in the early after- 
noon, when a slippage in US 
ranciTmflr confidence in Octo- 
ber seemed to rescue them 
from their worst fears, writes 
Our Markets Staff . 

Treasuries and European 
domestic bonds recovered, the 
dollar staged a technical rally 
and bourses recovered half or 
more of their earlier losses. 
But Mr Nicholas Knight, the 
Nomura strategist, said that he 
would want to see a whole 
range of US data before he 
would believe that the US 
economy was slowing down. 

In the Mr Knight 

held to views expressed in a 
global strategy note on Mon- 
day: “Our cash allocation is 
the highest in two years, yet 
still feels inadequate." 

FRANKFURT exemplified 
the European trend. The Dax 
index dropped 50.75. or 29 per 
cent to 1,97493 by the end of 
floor trading and dealers were 
prepared for it to test dosing 
lows of around 1,950 for the 
year in later trading. 

However, bunds led an after- 
noon recovery after a morning 
drop of more than a percentage 
point in December bund 
futures. Equities responded 


with the Ibis indicated Dax 
dosing 26.79, or L3 per cent 
better over 24 honrs at 


Turnover rose from DM4. 7bn 
to DM7bn. RWE, Germany's 
largest electrical utility with a 
decline in 1993/94 earnings per 
share, and MAN, which said 
that its big commercial truck 
and bus division swung to a 
DM97.4m loss, might have 
made an impact on another 
day; but they made little differ- 
ence in a market which left 
pamftp like Bayer in chemicals, 
Deutsche Babcock In engineer- 
ing and Kaufhof in re tailing 
with fells of 2 per cent or more 
at the end of the afternoon. 

PARIS fought back from a 
year’s low in the CAC-40 index 
of 1,79692 to close the day with 
a loss of 17.17 to 1,824.42. The 
market began to rebuild itself 
after Wall Street opened, hav- 
ing collapsed earlier following 
<-h<» s har p nvTpa s e in US Trea- 
suries overnight 

The US consumer confidence 
data later in the day helped to 
steady nerves, at least for the 
time being, although traders 
warned that, given the fact 
that investors were very unset- 
tled at the moment further 
weakness was to be expected. 

Turnover was about FFr4bn. 

In the corporate sector BNP 

FT-SE Actuaries Share indices 

Oct 26 
nuty flanges 

1X00 1400 16.00 Ckaa 

ft-se &mra* too rar.rz taart 1 232.<( taws 137.12 i 3010 islss 129 am 

FT-SE Ewntiodt 380 13SB-16 1355.19 13313* 134046 1347.03 134X22 135431 135647 

Oct 24 oazi octa 0019 oa ib 

FT-SE Euranck 100 131242 1 304J5 132422 13Z2 21 133352 

FT-SE taowek 200 TT7ZSB 136104 1381.68 137MD 1389.14 

am iooo (WNmk wife*: m - T37.4J: an . iss&e imw ioo . iauo an - imuo t 

lost FFr5.20 to FFr244.60 and 
said that it was to discuss 
today a p fan to turn its remain- 
ing investment certificates - 
some 300,000 - into ordinary 
shares, of which there are 
about 185m. 

ZURICH’S recovery from its 
intraday lows left the SMI 
index down 30.50, or 12 per 
cent at 2,494.7 after 2,472.7. The 
main loser in blue chips was 
SMH, down SFr30 to SFr667 as 
two banks reduced their earn- 
ings forecasts for the watch 

Generally, stocks looked 
more vulnerable in the second 
tier. Pharma Vision, the spe- 
cialist investment fund, 
dropped SFrlSO to SFr3,780 
although Sandoz, in the sector 
covered by the fund, lost only 
SFi9 at SFr641 on a 3 pa 1 cent 
rise in nine-month sales. In 
floor and wall coverings, Forbo 
dropped SFrllO to SFr2£50 on 

a 10 per cent rise in nine- 
month profits, and in construc- 
tion equipment, Qilti lost 
SFr40 at SFr980 after it said 
that it had no plans to place 
any of its registered share capi- 
tal on the bourse. 

AMSTERDAM broke away 
from the session low although 
Investor confidence remained 
nervous. The AEX index closed 
down 3.13 at 398.20, having 
fatten earlier to a low of 394.62. 

The market's dollar sensitive 
and heavily capitalised issues 
reacted negatively to the US 
currency’s continued weak- 
ness, but a few bright spots 
were noted. 

NedHoyd, for instance, which 
had been pressured at the end 
of last week on brokers’ down- 
grades and a decision by a 
decision by the European Com- 
mission blocking pricing and 
capacity agreements between 
shipping Tines on transatlantic 

container routes, added 70 
cents to FI 49.20. The group 
said that it did not expect the 
decision to have an adverse 
effect on profitability, and com- 
mented that Far East routes 
were holding up well. 

MILAN gave up the gains 
made at the start of the week 
in another session character- 
ised by low volume. The Comit 
inWo y finished down 8.01 or 1-3 
per cent at 613.78 . 

Aetinvest. the independent 
research group, commented 
that in the present climate 
with turnover remaining 
depressed - an average of 
LSOObn, although yesterday 
that figure fell to L450bn - the 
market was likely to react with 
exaggerated volatility to any 
sort of bearish news. “It is 
probable." said Aetinvest, 
“that this stagnant period 
could last for at least one or 
two months, until the budget is 
finally approved and there is 
more in the govern- 

ing coalition's political capabil- 

RAS, the insurance company 
in which Allianz of Germany 
has a majority stake, shed 6 
per cent to L17.790 after it said 
that it was to mount a 
r.7. 3 onhn funding operation to 
cover its purchase of Elvia 
from Swiss Reinsurance, 

announced earlier in the year. 

RAS said that it would raise 
Ll.iSObn through a rights issue 
with warrants attached and 
x.i.ianbn through a bond issue, 
also with warrants attached. 
The capital increase is expec- 
ted to begin on November 15. 

Telecom Italia, which said on 
Monday that it planned to 
demerge its mobile telecommu- 
nications division next year, 
lost L80 to L3.990, in line with 
the market trend. 

MADRID had a mixed day 
for headlines. It ended a new 
low for the year in spite of an 
intraday recovery with other 
bourses, the general index clos- 
ing 3.94, or 15 per cent lower 
at 28950. But turnover recov- 
ered from Ptall.9bn to 
Pta325bn, partly reflecting a 
big block trade by Bolsa 
Andino in Acesa. the motor- 
way operator, which fell Pta25 
to Ptal.045. 

Falls of 2 per cent or more 
were commonplace in the con- 
struction sector, reasonably so 
in utilities where Telefonica 
dropped Pta35 at Ptal.650, but 
still unus ual in banks. Mon- 
day’s resilient sector, where 
Argentina stood out with a 
fall of PtalOO to Pta4.780. 

Written and edited by William 
Cochrane and John Pitt 

Nikkei ends lower ahead of Japan Tobacco listing 


Worries over the higher yen 
and tomorrow's listing of 
Japan Tobacco eroded investor 
confidence and share prices 
lost ground for the third con- 
secutive day, writes Bmiko 
Terozono in Tokyo. 

The Nikkei 225 index fell 
12052 to close at the day’s low 
of 19.732.15, after opening at a 
high of 1953L87. The market 
was hit by arbitrage selling 
and position closing by dealers 
ahead of the last trading day 
for October settlement today. 
Buying by financial institu- 
tions failed to counter heavy 
selling and the index fell just 
before the close. 

Volume was 219m shares 
against 181m. The Topix Index 

Sega Enter p rises 

Share price and Index rebased 
140 - 

Source: Dabatraan 

of all first section stocks fell 
6.79 to 1,568.40 and the Nikkei 
300 fell 1.18 to 286.82. Declines 
led advances by 632 to 301, 
with 240 issues unchang ed. 

In London, the ISE/NIkkei 50 
index rose to 051 to 1,288.18. 

An official announcement by 
the Finance Ministry that it 
would not unload the unsold 
Japan Tobacco shares until 
next fiscal year failed to 
encourage investors. Some 
market participants were wor- 
ried that institutional inves- 
tors who had bought the stocks 
at the auction prior to the pub- 
lic offering could sell their 

The rise in the yen to the 
Y96 level hurt export oriented 
stocks. Fujitsu fell Y 10 to 
Y1.070 and Toshiba declined 
Y12 to Y751. Car makers were 
also lower with Nissan Motor 
down Y18 to Y828 and Honda 

Motor losing Y30 at Y1.700. 

However, Matsushita Elec- 
tric Industrial rose Y20 to 
Y1.600 after it announced that 
its interim pre-tax profits had 
risen by 26 per cent and 
revised up its full year fore- 

Sega Enterprises, the video 
game maker, snapped out of its 
eight day losing streak, and 
rose Y380 to Y4JS30 on bargain 
hunting, while Nintendo added 
Y120 to Y5.17D. Tsumura, the 
drug maker, put on Y80 to 

Steels and heavy industry 
stocks were actively traded. 
Nippon Steel, the day’s most 
active issue, rose Y2 to Y390 
and Mitsubishi Heavy Indus- 
tries added Y2 to Y766. 

In Osaka, the OSE average 
fell 7956 to 22,01755 in volume 
of 44.4m shares. 


The overnight fall on Wall 
Street brought early weakness 
to the region, but some mar- 
kets recovered later. Taiwan 
was closed for a holiday. 

HONG KONG lost 1.25 per 
cent in low volume, with 
futures-linked trading adding a 
further disincentive. The Hang 
Seng index fell 117.79 to 
9,246.50 in turnover of 
HK$25bn_ October Hang Seng 
futures declined 170 to 9520 on 
21,000 contracts ahead of their 
expiration this Friday. 

Hanny Magnetics, a manu- 
facturer of video cassettes and 
floppy disks, gained 12 cents to 
HK$L05 amid speculation that 
Hutchison Whampoa would 
purchase additional stock to 
maintain its stake in the 
group. Hutchison fell 60 cents 
to HK$34. 

SEOUL staged a rebound in 
blue chips, but brokers said 
that they expected the rise to 
be short-lived as the composite 
stock index added 9.87 to 

Both Goldstar and Yukong 
went limit up, gaining 
Wonl,300 and Wonl,600 to 
close at Won3 1.700 and 
Won44,400 respectively. 

Brokers said that tax pay- 
ments due next week, amount- 
ing to some Won4,000bn, and 
fears of intervention by the 
Korea Stock Market Stabiisa- 
tion Fund would limit further 
rises. Last week the fund sold 


JoMty comprfod by Hw Financial Times Ltd., Goldman. Sacra & Co. and NalWsst SecwiMs Ltd. In conjunction with the institute of Actuaries and the Faculty of Actuaries 


Roues n p a g n ha a es 
•raw number of Bnco 


AustraSa (681 — 

Austin |161 


Canada (1931 

Owmartt 03) — 

Finland (24) 

France (101) 

Germany ($81 

Hong Kong (56) 

Irwand (J4j 


Japan (466)„_ — 


Mexico (18) 

Netncrtand (19) 

New Zealand (141 

Norway (23i 

Singapore (44) 

South Africa (SO) 

Spam (38) 

Sweden pa 

Swisariand (47) 

Untied Kingdom (204)—. 
USA (SIS)- — 

EUROPE (709) 

Nerd* (116)- 

Pacific Bash (747).—. ... 
Euro- Pacific (1456)...—. 

North America (613) 

Europe Ex. UK (SOS)—. — 
Pacific Ex Japan prsj— , 

WoM Ex. US 11636) 

World Ex. UK f 1947)--- 
World Ex. So. AL (2092)- 
World Ex Japan (1663) ._ 



















V> chg 
an day 













DM Currency S2 week S2 week 
index Index High Low 




.... 171.71 
















— 182.25 


165 as 


141 M 




























... ..13023 
















— 25680 















.. — 200.40 
































— 14060 
















. .. 380.03 
















— .707 JO 
















78 66 





































53a 70 





















1389 £4 



































77 J5S 



. — 20000 











181 ai 





. — .399.01 
































..... 141.44 
















































— 200.64 
























1B9 .63 





























21 0.37 































120 67 











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, 164.23 









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174 06 




WonlOObn worth of stocks in 
an attempt to cool the market 
which bad reached an historic 
high on Octo ber 18 of 1,127. 

composite index ended down 
654 at 1.10253 after batting a 
low of 1,099.79. Trading 
remained subdued with vol- 
ume r eaching 196m shares. 

Aridchem led the day’s activ- 
ity with the shares rising 50 
cents to MJ8.40 in volume of 
85m shares. The company last 
Friday announced the acquisi- 
tion of the Penang bridge con- 
cession and a stake in the toll 
operator, Metacorp. 

SINGAPORE retreated on 
foreign investor-led s elling of 
blue chips in light trading, 
with many buyers sidelined. 

The Straits Times Industrial 
index fell 1452 to 2562-54, in 
volume of 155m shares. 

Among the main losers Cycle 

and Carriage lost 30 cents to 
SJ13.40, Keppel Corp 20 cents 
to SS12.90 and Fraser and 
Neave 10 cents to S$1750. 

BANGKOK gave up 1.4 per 
cent in acknowledgment of 
negative sentiment in the 
region, with the banking sector 
particularly barfly hit 

The SET index lost 2050 at 
150158, most of its losses com- 
ing in morning trade. Turnover 
was moderate at Btfi.9bn. 

Brokers said that foreign 
institutions were behind most 
of the selling. 

Tfre banks were sold heavily 
after recent gains, with the 
sub-index losing nearly 2 per 
cent in turnover of Btl.6bn. 
Krung Thai Bank was down 
Bt2 at Bt86. 

SYDNEY followed overseas 
markets down but it was also 
disturbed by sales of futures as 
the All Ordinaries Index fell 

15.6 to 2,0215 in turnover of 

The December futures con- 
tract fell by 31, or 15 per cent 
to 2503. Resources stocks fared 
worse than industrials but 
major hanks finishe d weaker, 
retracing Monday’s gains. 
Dealers expected activity in 
banks to pick up ahead of 
results expected from Westpac, 
National Aust ralia Bank and 
ANZ early November. 

MANILA was led lower by 
Petron, which took it up on 
Monday, and the composite 
index fell 2351 to 3,06954 as 
turnover rose from 1.8lbn 
pesos to 3.73bn. 

Petron fell 1.9 per cent to 
25.50 pesos, Philippine Long 
Distance Telephone Co dipped 
by 2 per emit to 1,450 pesos and 
San Miguel B dropped 1.45 per 
cent to 136. 

BOMBAY extended its gains 

to a a third consecutive day; 
volumes remained low. but 
brokers said that sentiment 
was much improved as the 
BSE 30-share rose 2751 to 
4.355.58. The brokers stud that 
the recovery was mainly due to 
selective buying by Indian 
mutual funds and local inves- 

KARACHI was dominated by 
bearish sentiment as the KSE 
100 index fell 28.55. or 1-25 per 
cent to 2^49.68; traders talked 
of a liquidity crunch, with 
investors’ money diverted to 
new issues. 

COLOMBO came back to a 
fall of 255 per cent, on political 
uncertainty following a day's 
curfew imposed after the assas- 
sination of the opposition 
leader Mr Gamini Dissaoayake. 
The all share index fell 31.74 to 
1,08257 and turnover from 
Rsl7559m to Rs59J21m. 


This announcement appears as a matter of record only 


has acquired 


We acted as financial advisors to 
American Barrick Resources Corporation 


Kidder, Peabody <&Co. 



The Watt Index E151) 177.69 -0.4 161.83 109.19 13329 147.60 -G.4 2.29 17048 15Z55 108.43 138.76 148.17 18080 16085 169A2 

QenritfiL The Bnancul Titm (Inked Gottmoj See* i and Co. and NtiMfet SecwftM Umutd. 1887 
Cotanwom diene* WMMc Nam dungs; Sumitomo Cvmnt io &mur» Oaaiia Cemm (Japan), um prices mere 

inwiWXt hr tt* MKkn Nw Zeritnd m®tat dowU 24/MVM. 

September, 1994 



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Wednesday October 26 1994 

While the PC has become the leading agent for 
change, Paul Taylor finds that office equipment is 
combining features to become multi-functional 

System distinctions 
begin to vanish 

Digital technology is 
transfo rming the way compa- 
nies do business. This is most 
evident in the office where net- 
works of powerful personal 
computers, wireless telephony 
and high-speed communica- 
tions links are re-shaping the 
way we work. 

Data processing and digital 
telecommunications in particu- 
lar have changed the way 
information is collected, 
manipulated, analysed and 
stored, Now these technologies 
are converging, bringing the 
integrated digital office closer. 

In the process they are 
enriching the office environ- 
ment by bringing new val- 
ue-added services, such as vid- 
eo-conferencing, electronic 
mail, electronic data inter- 
change (EDI) and multimedia, 
to the desktop. 

The most dramatic change 
since the early 1980s has been 
the arrival of toe personal com- 
puter and workstation. Today 
an estimated 100m PCs and 
workstations are in use across 
the globe. Each new micropro- 
cessor generation brings more 
power to the desktop at the 
same or lower prices. The 
accelerating pace of silicon 
pn gimwhig iwrans that most 
desktop machines now have 
the power and storage capacity 
of yesterday’s mainfr ame 

Such high performance 
machines are required to han- 
dle toe sophisticated and pow- 
er-hungry software developed 
by Microsoft and others. 

Increasingly these PCs are 
hooked together using hard- 
wire mid wireless telecommu- 
nications imfcs to form local 
and wide-area networks (Lans 
and Wans), which can .share 
data and peripherals like prints 
ers, computer-based fax 

machines, scanners amf other 

equipment. This process of 
computer platform substitution 
- from mainframe to desktop 
PC and mid-range machines 
called ‘‘servers'’, has become 
known as ‘‘downsizing”, or 

The fact that the PC has 
become an indispensable busi- 
ness tool and an agent for 
change in the workplace is 
reflected in a study* of the 
European market undertaken 
by Context, an IT research 
firm, and published recently by 
the Economist Intelligence 

The authors note that in 
spite of recession and cut- 
backs, the PC market has 
gro w n by 1^5 per cent In unit 
terms is 1992 and by about 14 
per cent in 1993. “Projections 
for 1994 are that demand will 
continue to rise and that unit 
growth could increase by more 
than 20 per cent on 1993,” the 
report says. 

“The reasons for this sus- 
tained growth are simple. Busi- 
ness in the 1990s cannot com- 
pete without the efficiency and 
technology provided by com- 
puters. The PC best fulfils 
these r e quirem ents in a form 
that is versatile, flexible, pow- 
erful and, mast important of 
all, affordable. The massive 
price reductions of the past 
two- years have played a vital 
part In promoting continued 
growth in the sale of PCs.'’ 

The PC may have improved 
office productivity, but it has 
not led to the creation of the 
paperless office some had pre- 
dicted. At least 80 per cent of 
information used is the office 
is still stored on paper, rather 
than electronically. 

The growing use of elec- 
trtmic-trading and EDf in the 
UK and elsewhere has begun 

to cot into toe stacks of docu- 
mentation which business 
transactions generate, but 
progress is slow. 

In the US more a third 
of companies are expected to 
buy document management 
systems this year and new 
hardware such as digital opti- 
cal scanning, storage and 
retrieval devices have begun to 
appear in offices. 

But so, too. have new paper 
generators such as high-vol- 
ume electronic demand print- 
ms which link directly to com- 
puters, digital offset presses 
and digital copiers which s een 
a hard copy once and allow 
image manipulation before 
reproducing multiple copies. 

Other digital multi-func- 
tional office equipment is also 
beginning to appear, blurring 
of riistitictirwis between individ- 
ual devices. Most of these 
devices combine some or all of 
the features of a facsimile 
machine, photocopier, laser 
printer and scanner. 

Meanwhile, other bottle- 
necks in the nmnrmintea - 
tions infrastructure have been 
attracting attention. In particu- 
lar the lack of flexibility, ineffi- 
ciencies and unnecessary costs 
imposed by hard-wired tele- 
communications links are 
being challenged by new wire- 
less alternatives - in much the 
same way that cellular tele- 
phones and mobile data have 
begun to change perceptions of 
telecommunications outside 
the office. 

A growing number of busi- 
nesses are using digital cellu- 
lar telephony, portable comput- 
ers and mobhe data networks 
to exchange information 
between the central office data- 
base and mobile employees 
such as salesmen or engineers. 

Now within the office, sev- 

eral PABX (private automatic 
branch exchange) manufac- 
tures have launched digital 
cordless voice systems. Simi- 
larly wireless T-ans linking 
desktop computers, workstat- 
ions and other devices, without 
the need for fixed cabling have 
begun to appear. 

Meanwhile the volume and 
variety trf information requir- 
ing delivery to the desktop is 
set to grow rapidly as desktop 
video-conferencing and multi- 
media applications become 
increasingly commonplace. 

Some computers now come 

folly equipped for videoconfer- 
encing, allowing users to trans- 
mit live video images of them- 
selves to other, similarly- 
equipped users, and to see on 
their PC the person they are 
talking to. But for the moment 
most PC users will have to buy 
a special kit if they want to 
carry out a videoconference in 
a window on their screen. 

In order to deliver these mul- 
timedia services across net- 
works. new high speed, high 
capacity packet-switched tech- 
nologies, such as ATM (Asyn- 
chronous Transfer Mode), have 

been developed. As they are 
aHnptori, the remaining distinc- 
tions between office voice and 
data lines are likely to vanish. 

The rapid pace of change 
means corporate and other 
information technology users 
are having to spend increasing 
amounts to remain in step 
with new technology. The 
annual Price Waterhouse infor- 
mation technology review** 
published ‘ last month and 
based on a survey of 1,000 
information technology execu- 
tives, found that IT spending 
jumped by 15 per cent last year 

across the corporate sector - a 
sharp increase given the low 
inflation rate and far above the 
0.2 per cent increase that the 
same organisations had pre- 
dicted at the start of of 1993. 

The survey found IT spend- 
ing to be closely tied to 
restructuring. Two-thirds of 
organisations claimed to have 
programmes in place and 28 
per cent of IT executives said 
they were themselves the main 
architect of change in their 

“This study confirms that 
managers in major companies 
are now re-thinking their 
operations and re-equipping 
their IT systems to Fit new 
market conditions." says Jane 

Lucien-Scholle. head of the IT 
practice or Price Waterhouse 

The survey also highlights 
the marked trend away from 
mainframe-based systems to 
PC-based client-server net- 
works. Client-server computing 
was the most popular of the 
new and emerging technolo- 
gies and has been Implemented 
by 58 per cent of the respon- 
dents and was ranked number 
one in offering the greatest 
potential benefit 

Other new technologies pop- 
ular with the executives 
included document image pro- 
cessing and workflow systems 
which are being used by organ- 
isations with high volumes of 
paper which need to be stored 
such as credit card receipts 
and cancelled cheques. 

“All these findings point in 
the same direction.” says Ms 
Lucien-Scholie. “Management 
is looking very deeply into the 
competitive implications of IT. 
They want change, but are 
resisting superficial responses. 
They are investing, but they 
also want value. 

“The ways in which they 
spend these very large sums 
and adapt their organisations 
to exploit new systems are 
likely to have a critical influ- 
ence on competitive perfor- 
mance and profits In the years 

•The European Market for 
PCs and Printers, Economist 
Intelligence Unit. IS Regent 
Street, London SWl 4LR . £395. 
**Price Waterhouse IT Review, 
Publications Office, Southwark 
Timers, 32 London Bridge St, 
London SEl 9S¥. Free . — - 

■ Portables: the functions 

of a PC now fit into a note- 
book; Networks: petty thefts 
can damage businesses; 
Desktops: leading PC mak- 
ers are cutting prices to 
increase volumes Page 2 

■ Software: contlici 

emorgos between computing 
departments and end-users; 
Data storage: demand is 
forcing disk capacities 
upwards. Page 3 

■ Photocopiers: working 

towards a digital era; Docu- 
ment processing: compre- 
hensive systems arc still 
lacking Page 5 

■ Printers: our appetite for 

documentation is apparently 
insatiable - sales continue to 
rise; Facsimile machines: 
vendors boliove speod is 
important Pago £ 

■ Cordless communica- 

tions: by the end of the 
decade, analysts predtat tint 
up to a lifth ol new ottico 
equipment will bo cordless; 
Mobile phones: linking the 
office switchboard to a 
mobile phone network can 
cut costs Pago 7 

■ Voice mail: answering 

machines arc being included 
in composite products; Vid- 
eo-conferencing: providing 
an alternative to business 
travel; Paging: customers 
are today only a tenth ot 
what was predicted threa 
years ago — Pago 8 

■ Training: multimedia 
makes learning new skills 
exciting; Electronic infor- 
mation: none of the services 
have yet achieved wide- 
spread use; EDI: the elec- 
tronic marketplace is on its 
way — — Page 9 

■ Building services: 

increasing use of technology 
presents developers with 
problems; Office equip- 
ment health and safety con- 
cerns are beginning to affect 
design Page 10 



O nce again, the worldwide personal 
computer market is in turmoil 
with leading PC manufacturers 
slashing prices to keep volumes moving 
ahead and a bitter public power struggle 
breaking out between Intel, the world's 
leading semiconductor manufacturer, and 
Compaq Computer, its biggest customer. 

In mid-August, a new price war erupted 
in the US personal computer market when 
International Business Machines slashed 
prices on many of its PC products by up to 
27 per cent. The move came in response to 
similar price cuts by Compaq, the US mar- 
ket leader. 

IBM also cut the prices of its PC net- 
work servers to less than those of equiva- 
lent Compaq machines. Compaq is the 
dominant supplier of PC servers, used to 
control office computer networks. This Is 
the most profitable and fastest growing 
section of the corporate PC market. 

Then last month, in an unprecedented 
outburst, Eckhard Pfeiffer, Compaq's pres- 
ident and chieF executive, lashed out at 
Intel, accusing the US chip maker of 
undermining Compaq's marketing efforts 
and of not giving his company due consid- 
eration as the biggest seller of PCs in the 
US and Europe. 

Mr Pfeiffer cited Intel’s promotion of its 
own brand name, chip pricing strategy, 
and the direct competition posed by Intel's 
growing PC and circuit board manufactur- 
ing operations. 

These battles are taking place against 

Desktop computers: Paul Taylor tries to evaluate the conflicting claims 

Intel against Compaq in bitter battle 

the backdrop of a market which has been 
underpinned throughout the recession by 
the continued shift by business customers 
away from mainframe computers to net- 
works of desktop PCs and mid-range com- 
puters (client-server systems). 

According to Dataquest. the market 
research, organisation, about 45 per cent of 
PCs were connected to networks last year, 
and this is forecast to rise to 55 per cent 
this year and 77 per cent by 1997. 

The impact of tins trend is apparent in 
PC volume sales. Despite cutbacks, budget 
freezes and huge numbers of bankruptcies 
and redundancies, the European PC mar- 
ket grew by 12.5 per cent in unit terms in 
1992 and by about 14 per cent in 1993, 
according to an Economist Intelligence 
Unit research report. Projections for 1994 
are that demand will continue to rise, with 
unit growth increasing by a further 20 per 

At the same time, there has been a 
marked resurgence in sales by the large 
brand name PC manufacturers over the 
past two years, reversing the trend 
towards the cut-price “clone'' manufactur- 
ers apparent since the late 1980s. 

The top five PC manufacturers all 
Increased their market shares last year in 
terms of worldwide shipments, according 
to Dataquest. In western Europe, ship- 
ments by the top nine manufacturers rose 
by 73 percentage points to 54.4 per cent of 
the total market Compaq, in particular, 
has achieved a dramatic turnaround. 

ketline International, the average price of 
a PC in the UK fell by 16.8 per cent 
between 1991 and 1993. At the same time, 
the specifications continue to rise, mean- 
ing that entry-level business computers 
now boast features that were available 
only on top-level machines a few years 

The top five PC manufacturers all increased their 
market shares last year in terms of worldwide 
shipments, according to Dataquest 

Several factors are responsible. First, 
the old established manufacturers have hit 
back at cut-price clone manufacturers 
with competitively priced machines of 
their own. Second, the growth of the local 
area network has placed a premium on PC 
networking compatibility and on support 
and service. Finally, customer buying hab- 
its for desktop computers have moved 
back towards established indirect distribu- 
tion channels. 

Meanwhile, PC prices have continued to 
tumble. According to London-based Mar- 

Slim profit margins and shortening 
product cycles continue to take their toll ~ 
there has been a steady stream of casual- 
ties on both sides of the Atlantic. Never- 
theless. volumes are such that no serious 
contender in the data processing industry 
can afford to ignore the PC market 
Fuelling the PC price battle are sharp 
cuts by Intel in the prices of its micropro- 
cessors. The US cbipmaker reduced the 
prices of its 486 and latest generation Pen- 
tium chips by about 40 per cent in the 
second quarter. 

More recently. Intel has announced an 
adver tising campaig n to persuade business 
customers anil home consumers to buy 
PCs fragpd on the Pent! am chip - sales of 
which have been slower than expected. 
This has annoyed Compaq, which had 
large stocks of machines based on lower 
performance chips at the end of the second 
quarter. Compaq sees Intel's attempts to 
accelerate the pace of technological 
advance in foe PC industry as an intru- 

For its part, Intel is thought to be mar- 
keting Pentium chips aggressively so as to 
maximise its already strong profit mar- 
gins, and to outflank mounting competi- 
tion from rival chip manufacturers which 
threaten to eat into its 90 per cent market 
share of world microprocessor sales. 

Among the competition, California-based 
Advanced Micro Devices has already 
launched versions of Intel’s 486 micropro- 
cessors and has promised a Pentium clone 
by the end of the year. Other competitors 
include Nexgen, a privately-held chip 
developer in which Compaq has a minor- 
ity stake, and Cyrix. Market analysts 
believe these companies could achieve a 20 

per cent or higher share of the PC micro- 
processor market over tune. 

^Meanwhile. both Apple Computer and 

Motorola, the VS dertnnw *«} 
nications manufacturer, have launched 
Abased on PowerPC microprocessor 
Sips jSy developed by the two compa- 
nies together with IBM- 

Its advocates claim the PowerPC micro- 
processor is more powerful *^ ““**[: 
fog chips from Intel, making them well 
suited to demanding desktop applications 
such as multimedia with sound, video and 
graphics which are beginning to appear m 

However, the new chips lack the broad 
software base available for Intel-based 
PCs. This is one reason why IBM has 
delayed the launch of its own version of 
the PowerPC until early next year. 

Lou Gerstner, who took over as IBM 
firman is months ago, has said that 
some of IBM’s customers are concerned 
about the rapid obsolescence of the prod- 
ucts they buy. and the pace of technologi- 
cal change. However Mr Gerstner has also 
acknowledged that IBM has often been 
slower than its rivals to bring new prod- 
ucts to market - even when it has a tech- 
nological lead. 

Despite the concerns of both Compaq 
and IBM, it seems unlikely that the pace of 
technical innovation will slow. Therefore 
one of the m-iin challenges facing corpo- 
rate PC customers will continue to be to 
sift through the competing claims. 

A City of London bank, 
which recently con- 
ducted an audit of its 
personal computer networks, 
found 50 megabytes of com- 
puter memory were missing. 
The problem was eventually 

traced to ooe of the technical 

IT staff, who had taken four 
megabytes of memory out of 
each new machine that was 
purchased, and put it into his 
home computer. 

With the price of memory 
running at £80-100 per mega- 
byte, such petty thefts can cost 
the business a significant 
amount of money. Not to men- 
tion the loss of capacity on the 
network, for which the busi- 
ness could also softer. 

The bank's problem is not 
untypical. According to 
Adrian Botterill. UK market- 
ing director of network sup- 
plier Asian, many businesses 
do not know bow much equip- 
ment is connected to their net- 
works. Often equipment is 
purchased without any plan or 
strategy by user departments 
and the FT department is not 
consulted. Even in IT, PCs and 
PC networks tend to be small 
beside the larger mainframe 
and mid-range systems and 
few people bother to keep pre- 
cise records. 

“A lot of companies don’t 
know what networks or 

Monica Horten on how to check software piracy and petty thefts 

Why networks need managers 

systems they have In use. Indi- 
vidual staff connect PCs to 
networks with such a degree 
of freedom that IT depart- 
ments often don't know what 
is happening," says Mr Botter- 

Only now are user organisa- 
tions beginning to realise that 
PC networks need to be prop- 
erly managed. Networks are 
installed to enable staff to be 
more productive by improving 
the flow of information within 
a department or an entire 
organisation. For example, a 
sales department is given 
access across the network to 
the debtors and creditors list 
on the accounting system. 
Sales reps then know which 
customers they should target 
for further sales, and which 
are a bad risk. 

These organisations not only 
risk loss of hardware, but 
could put in jeopardy those 
very benefits which they want 
to achieve; if they fail to look 
after the equipment. For exam- 
ple, can the network cope if 
everyone wants to access a 

particular application at the 
same time? What happens if 
more users are added to the 
network and traffic increases, 
causing regular "crashes"? 

"Networks are designed to 
cope with some failures. But 
you could have a lot of invisi- 
ble failures, and if you then 
load the network np with more 
data traffic, yon could go too 
far and hit a brick waff," says 
Lee Taylor, of specialists sup- 
plier Logical Networks. 

S oftware is available to 
deal with each of these 
issues. Bat no single 
product copes with the lot all 
at once. The products fall into 
two categories: traditional net- 
work management software: 
and a new raft of products 
designed to manage desktop 
applications and hardware. 

The former includes Sun Net 
Manager, Hewlett Packard’s 
Open View or IBM’s Netview. 
These have evolved since the 
mid-1980s, be ginning as prod- 
ucts for managing distributed 
mainframe and mid-range 

computer systems, linked 
together over wide area net- 
works. They manage the net- 
working hardware - routers, 
bridges and multiplexers. 

They also monitor the net- 
work traffic and alert the IT 
staff before a route becomes 
overloaded so they have time 
to take action. For example, if 
a network is running at 50 per 
cent capacity, hot previously it 
was at 20 per cent rising to 30 
per cent, then it is clear that 
the steady increase in traffic 
could pose a problem. The soft- 
ware should automatically 
sort out such problems. 

AD three packages support 
the international standard for 
network management known 
as SNMP (simple network 
management protocol). How- 
ever. they can be expensive, 
especially for small networks. 
Logical Networks quotes a 
minimum of £5,000 for Son 
Net Manager, and £12,000- 
£20,000 for Open View. 

Much less expensive are the 
desktop management prod- 
ucts, such as the Norton 

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suppliers is outsourced to TradeLink. As a supplier you can receive 
credit advices electronically too, and then reconcile them autoniadcally 
within your accounts system. 

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Arfm inistrator from Symantec 
at £350 for a five-user pack, 
rising to £2,900 for 50 users. 
Lan Desk Manager, from Intel, 
costs £715 for a network with 
just one server up to £7,000 for 
one with 20 servers. 

The Norton Administrator, 
for example, mahrfulnn an 
inventory of all PCs on the 
network, including the proces- 
sor power and memory of each 
machine. Software upgrades 
and back-ups are also made 
easier, because the Administa- 
tor can distribute software 
throughout tiie network. 

This solves a big network 
administration problem. Back- 
ups and other "housekeeping” 
activities used to be done by a 
centralised IT department. 
With the advent of PC net- 
works, users were expected to 
do their own. But in practice, 
few do so. Instead. IT staff 
spend most of their time mov- 

The Frankfurt network operations centre of Eunetcom 

fog around the organisation, 
often troubleshooting prob- 
lems that occur precisely 
because housekeeping is dime 
badly or not at all. 

According to a recent study 
by Gartner Group, the market 
researchers, this type of 
administrative activity can 
represent np to 84 per cent of 
the total cost of ownership of a 
PC network. The initial capital 
investment comprises the 
remaining 16 per cent. 

The Administrator also 

deals with a relatively new 
problem facing businesses: 
that of software piracy. A 
business can face litigation if 
found to be using illegal copies 
of applications software pack- 
ages. According to Mr Taylor, 
It is easy to copy software, or 
to load up a package on to 
several different machines. “I 
don’t believe there are many 
companies In the UK which 
know how many copies of 
Microsoft Word they have." he 

The software industry is 
moving to crack down on snch 
illegal copying. The Federa- 
tion Against Software Theft, 
an industry body set up specif- 
ically to deal with the prob- 
lem, has the power to demand 
a software audit "It is easier 
for companies to do an audit if 
they have the management 
software in place." says Mr 

The Administrator, for 
example, checks every soft- 
ware application on the hard 
drives, and monitors the usage 
of each. It tracks software 
licences, and can be made to 
enforce licensing - for exam- 
ple, if 500 licences are paid for, 
it can be asked to refuse to log 
on the 50ist user who tries to 
access that particular package. 

But all of the desktop man- 
agement products are propri- 
etary and one package will not 
work with another. A new 
technical standard, known as 
the desktop management 
interface has been agreed. 
Most manufacturers are now 
redeveloping their software to 
meet this standard, and prod- 
ucts should be available next 

Paul Taylor looks at the rapid growth of the portable computer 

Tumbling prices ignite market 

Lightweight “notebook" 
personal computers and 
modem communications 
devices have made portable 
computing a reality for a grow- 
ing number of mobile profes- 
sionals in the past five years. 

Advances in semiconductor 
technology and the miniaturi- 
sation of other components 
such as hard disc storage 
devices have enabled PC manu- 
facturers to pack most of the 
functions of a desktop PC into 
an A4sized notebook package 
weighing about 6tt> and priced 
at £1500 or less. 

Colour notebook PCs using 
“dual scan" technology have 
become more affordable and 
easier to use. Most machines 
are now powered by fast Intel 
486 processors, have large 
200Mb or bigger hard disks and 
credit-card sized PCMICA 
expansion slots for peripherals 
such as fax-modems. 

Battery life has been 
extended through the use of 
low-power chips, power-saving 
features and improved battery 
technology. For example, Dell 
Computer's new Latitude 
range includes a dual Nickel 
Metal Hydride (NiMH) battery 
option which extends battery 
life to a maxim um 17.5 hours. 

Other manufacturers have 
developed machines for niche 
applications. For example, 
Toshiba offers a model that 
includes a CD-Rom drive, ste- 
reo speakers, detachable key- 
board and facilities to make 
multimedia presentations 
while travelling and Cannon 
has machines which incorpo- 
rate a bubble jet printer for 
those who require paper print- 
outs but do not want to carry a 
separate printer. 

Fujitsu Is one of several 
manufacturers which have 
launched lightweight “tablet" 
PCs where data is input on to a 
flat screen using an electronic 
pen pointing device instead of 
a keyboard. Fujitsu's Stylistic 
500. launched earlier this 
month, weighs 2.61b and is 
designed to appeal to markets 
such as insurance, transporta- 
tion, utilities, consumer pack- 
aged goods, pharmaceuticals 
and h e alth care. 

For engineers and others 
requiring the power of a work- 
station while away from the 
office. Tadpole Technology has 
developed a range of high per- 
formance SPARCbook 3 laptop- 
site portables. Target applica- 
tions and markets include com- 
puter-aided design, financial 
services, geographic informa- 
tion systems, equipment test 
and maintenance and telecom- 

Other machines have a mod- 
ular design, enabling screens 
and hard discs to be swapped 

easily and some, such as AST's 
range of Ascentia 900, can be 
easily hooked up to larger 
screens or office local area net- 
works using a docking station 
or port replicators. 

Technical improvements, 
together with tumbling prices, 
have turned portable comput- 
ers into the fastest-growing 
segment of the world computer 
market. According to Data- 
quest, the market research 
organisation, portable com- 
puter sales - mostly of note- 
book or even smaller sub-note- 
book machines - were worth 
J35bn last year. 

In volume terms notebook 
computer sales in Europe grew 
by more than 18 per cent to 
1.33m with four vendors - 
Compaq, Toshiba, IBM and 
Apple - accounting for 595 per 

employees were able to use 
their portable PCs or data ter- 
minals for communicating 
with the office while travelling. 
Most of these employees made 
their connection over the pub- 
lic switched telephone network 
although a quarter said they 
used cellular telephone connec- 
tions, 185 per cent used pri- 
vate or public mobile radio and 
a similar proportion said they 
used mobile packet data ser- 

In the study, the most impor- 
tant uses listed for mobile data 
communications were sending 
and receiving electronic mail, 
sending and receiving facsimi- 
les, transferring files, accessing 
purchase and inventory data- 
bases and accessing customer 
and invoicing databases. 

A modem (modulator/de- 

‘Connectivfty is becoming a 
more and more important feature 
of mobile computing’ 

cent of the market However, 
portable computer sales still 
represented only 17.4 per cent 
of the total European PC mar- 

“Although portable comput- 
ing represents only a minority 
of the total PC market, more 
and more people are adopting 
it in one form or another, par- 
ticularly in a business environ- 
ment" says Jeffrey Goldberg, a 
Dataquest consultant. "The 
notebook computer has 
replaced the secretary as the 
ubiquitous travelling compan- 

Growth of the portable PC 
market has flattened since the 
boom years of 1990 to 1992. 
Nevertheless. Dataquest pre- 
dicts that between 1993 and 
1998 portable computer sales 
will grow by a compound 
annual rate of 23.4 per cent, 
compared with 8.4 per cent for 
desktop PCs. 

Worldwide sales of mobile 
computing equipment, periph- 
erals and services are expected 
to grow to almost $45bn by 
1997 according to California- 
based Market Intelligence 

Business use of portable 
computers is undoubtedly 
increasing. When Dataquest 
asked corporate computer pur- 
chasing managers across 
Europe whether any of their 
employees used portable PCS, 
70 per cent replied "yes”, with 
the UK and Germany showing 
the highest uptake. The three 
largest gimps of users were 
top executives and finance 
staff, sales and marketing and 
An gfopw in g and maintenance. 

More than 32 per cent also 
claimed at least some of their 

modulator) enables a computer 
to exchange digital data over 
an Qlder-style analogue tele- 
phone line with another 
machine, typically a head 
office computer which is also 
equipped with a modem and 
has become another essential 
piece of equipment for many 
travelling professionals. 

“Connectivity is becoming a 
more and more important fea- 
ture of mobile computing, espe- 
cially aimed at making life 
easier for business users who 
are on the move,” says Steve 
Crawley, AST’s product mar- 
keting manager. “The latest 
trend shows It will soon 
become commonplace to bun- 
dle communications add-ons 
with portable PCs.” 

Modems come in a number 
of shapes and sizes and are get- 
ting faster, smarter and 
cheaper. Some, usually based 
on proprietary designs, fit 
inside the machine but exter- 
nal modems - including some 
which fit Into PCMCIA card 
slots - usually offer faster 
transmission speeds together 
with sophisticated data com- 
pression and error correction 
features. Most also provide the 
facility to send and receive 
faxes direct from the screen. 

Currently most portable 
modems. Including PCMCIA 
card modems, are designed to 
be plugged into a wall tele- 
phone socket However, wire- 
less modems have begun to 
appear which work either with 
existing analogue cellular 
mobile telephone services or 
with the new breed of dedi- 
cated digital mobile packet- 
switched data networks such 
as the Ram Mobile Data net- 

work in the UK. 

These modems represent the 
ultimate in portability since 
they allow mobile computer 
users to transmit or receive 
data and faxes from virtually 
anywhere. Eventually, how- 
ever, there may be no need for 
modems at all since, at least in 
theory, it should be possible to 
plug a digital device, including 
portable computers, directly 
into the next generation of 
mobile telephones operating on 
digital cellular networks such 
as the GSM networks in 

Eventually, the continued 
convergence of telephone and 
computer technologies Is 
expected to lead to multi-pur- 
pose handheld digital devices 
which will combine the func- 
tions of data processing and 
voice and data telecommunica- 

Sales of the first generation 
of so-called personal digital 
assistants, such as Apple's 
Newton, did not live up to 
expectations, largely because 
they lacked sophisticated wire- 
less telecommunications facili- 

According to Dataquest the 
European market for handheld 
computers, inclu ding pen- 
based machines, actually 
declined from an estimated 
401,000 units in 1992 to 283500 
last year. 

“For tiie future we predict 
that f amiliar keyboard-driven 
handhelds will comfortably 
outsell pen handhelds, but 
these will most likely be 
hybrid machines using a pen 
for drawing and pointing, and 
the keyboard for text entry “ 
says Mr Goldberg. 

Dataquest argues that wider 
acceptance of handheld PCs is 
highly dependent on the avail- 
ability of ubiquitous and cheap 
connectivity, in particular 
wireless networking, and on a 
rationalisation of the many 
competing platforms. 

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D ownaenta can be stored in a heap 
ot the desk, in a filing cabinet or 
in a buff folder, but they can get 
oaned or go missing, it takes time to 
retrieve data from cabinets and they take 
up space. 

A square inch of magnetic disk space 
ran .accommodate as much information as 
a) filing cabinets or more. But despite a 
rise in the use of electronic storage meth- 
ods, less than 5 per cent of the world’s 
business information is stored “on line" in 

a .“3P uter * *" nie ^ I* microfilm, 
microfiche and plain old paper,” says Paul 
Wolfetaetter, research analyst with the US 
Gartner group. 

The demand for electronic storage is 
growing rapidly - at a rate of 40-50 per 
rant a year and this Is expected to con- 
tinue. The UK data storage market almy * 
is likely to be worth more than $400m this 
ysar, rising to about $700m by 1997. 
according to Dataquest, the research 

Demand is being fuelled by the greater 
use of computer-based office systems, the 
onset of multimedia applications, net- 
works l inkin g computers to telephone 
lines and an increasing use of software 
programs that eat up storage space. 

Sheila Jones looks at the fast growing market for electronic data storage 

Systems fuel demand for space 

“Only a few years ago. a 20 megabyte 
hard disk would have been enough for 
most people’s needs,” says Trevor Duplock 
of Micropolis, the US disk drive manufac- 
turer. “Today, with the availability of soft- 
ware such as Windows NT which requires 
100Mb of disk space, the typical user needs 
much more space.” 

The market's voracious appetite is forc- 
ing average disk and disk drive capacities 
ever upwards. According to a recent 
study* by Disk Trend Report, the US ana- 
lyst, demand for 100-200 megabyte disk 
drives, which led the market in 1993, will 
plummet by 50 per cent this year in favour 
of 200000m megabyte drives. 

By 1995. 300000Mb drives will lead the 
market. The study expects growth in sales 
of hard disk drives for personal computers, 
workstations and network file servers to 
boost global revenues to about S3Sbn by 

1997. Manufacturers, meanwhile, are 
responding by providing smaller disks 
with ever-increasing capacities. 

But as demand rises, the price per mega- 
byte of storage is expected to continue to 
Call and storage options to increase. 

The way an organisation chooses to 
store data depends on four main factors. 
How much information needs to be stored; 
how quickly access is needed; whether the 
data needs to be processed; and the cost 
per byte of information. 

There are two main options. Magnetic 
disks dominate the storage market 
because they are rewritable, while optical 
disks are usually not. Magneto-optical 
disks, which form only a tiny portion of 
the market, are rewritable, but the cost of 
equipment is relatively high and retrieval 
times are slow - the cost per megabyte, 
however, is low. 

Most PCs are fitted with rewritable mag- 
netic hard disks as well as floppy disk 
drives for portable data storage. A high 
proportion of new PCs are also now 
equipped with a CD-Rom (read only mem- 
ory) drive for multimedia applications. 
The CD-Rom has become a popular 
medium for software distribution because 
it is relatively cheap, easy to handle, and 
capable of staring large amounts of data, 
voice and images. 

A new generation of storage devices 
that adhere to PCMCIA (Personal 
Computer Memory Card Interna- 
tional Association) standards is also begin- 
ning to take hold- These devices, often 
called memory cards because they are not 
much bigger than a credit card, incorpo- 
rate semiconductor memory chips and pro- 
vide data storage capacity approaching 

that of a magnetic hard disk. 

Prices of PCMCIA cards are coming 
down as the cards become more popular 
and manufacturing volumes increase. The 
advantage of memory cards is that they 
are rugged, light weight and portable. This 
makes them particularly well suited to 
notebook PCs and hand-held computing 

in the mainframe and mid-range com- 
puter arena, another acronym that is 
becoming better-known in the market is 
Said - redundant array of inexpensive 
d«k«_ Standard, small er disk drives arc 
stacked together to give the sort of storage 
capacity offered by a single, more expen- 
sive drive. 

Linked in an array, they take large 
amounts of data and access times are rela- 
tively swift. Manufacturers, among them 
CMC, StorageTek, IBM and Micropolis. say 

they offer greater security because the fail- 
ure of one, large disk means much more is 
lost than if one smaller disk in an array 

At the same time, as manufacturers are 
fitting more data on to smaller disks, their 
price is foiling, making it cheaper to make 
back-ups to store precious data on disks 
off site. “The risk for the user is in a 
single, expensive disk. If 1 can buy two 
small disks with the same dollar and each 
with the same capacity, then I buy the two 
and use one to copy and store it,** says Mr 

For now, magnetic hard disks will con- 
tinue to dominate, says Mr WoUstaetter. 
“Magnetic disks have almost pushed opti- 
cal disks out of the picture.” But he 
believes the medium of the future will be 
holographic crystal. 

Scientists at Stanford University have 
recently developed a fully automated digi- 
tal holographic data storage system with a 
data capacity of 163,000 bytes. “By the turn 
of the decade we will have holographic 
recording and we'll be looking at capaci- 
ties of one terabyte (1.000 gigabytes! in a 
cubic centimetre." 

* Rigid Disk Drives, 1994. DiskfTrend 
Report. US. Tel: 415 969 2560. 

■ v • • 

S taff at entertainment 
group Polygram Interna- 
tional must either use 
WordPerfect and Lotus 1-2-3 or 
be denied access to company 
networks and even face a repri- 

This Is the company’s way of 
dealing with an issue which is 
increasingly gaining attention 
as organisations seek to adjust 
the balance between end-user 
software freedom and the cen- 
tral control of standards, con- 
tracts, support and costs. 

Office computing is now 
"generally out of control", says 
Robin Bloor, head of the 
research firm Butlerbloor, who 
has just produced a report* on 
corporate strategy for office 
systems. He identifies some 

First, traditional computing 
departments do not understand 
office computing and are not 
used to supporting distributed 
systems. Meanwhile, business 
departments often include PC 
enthusiasts who think they 
know more than they da and 
Interfere with attempts to 
introduce controls. 

As business users gain bud- 
getary and operational inde- 
pendence from the computing 
department, control of comput- 
ing resources becomes a politi- 
cal issue. 

A new type of conflict is 
therefore emerging between 
computing departments and 
their end-users. In the past, 
business people complained 
that requests for new software 
took months to be dealt with. 

Control of office software needs to be returned to computing professionals, says John Kavanagh 

Lack of discipline a potential disaster 

PCs running spreadsheet soft- 
ware gave them a taste of free- 
dom but the falling cost of soft- 
ware packages and growing 
familiarity with PCs mean they 
are now moving on. to buying 
and illegally copying software 
products which are not sup- 
ported or approved of by the 
central computing «mit. 

“In some offices we have 
seen a lack of dlcrtplinp which 
almost beggars belief,” Mr 
Bloor says. “The horror stories 
include no back-up, virus infes- 
tations. the spread of illicitly 
copied games, a complete lack 
of training, undeclared and 

the software piracy is by end- 
users who do not realise they 
are doing anything wrong. 

Other research suggests that 
laek of training "iwm that 
only 5 or 10 per cent of the 
facilities of office software 
products are exploited. 

Studies of spreadsheet soft- 
ware users have shown that 
they are in fact programmers 
without programming training; 
one survey by accountancy 
and consultancy firm Coopers 
& Lybrand found that 90 per 
cent of spreadsheets had errors 
of more than 5 per cent in their 

*A major problem is that tew organisations 
have defined sensible boimdaries and 
responsibilities,’ Mr Bloor says 

unaudited software develop- 
ment, not to mpntinn the pur- 
chase of non-standard hard- 
ware and software.” 

Such finding s s u pport claims 
by the Federation Against Soft- 
ware Theft that half the office 
software used in the UK is ille- 
gally copied. This costs jobs in 
the software industry and sti- 
fles innovation by cutting 
development budgets, the fed- 
eration says. More than half 

Action is needed because, as 
Mr Bloor puts it, “the end-user 
is truly in the ascendancy”. 
The office PC is now used for 
most writing an d calculating ; 
soon it will be the standard for 
all data storage and communi- 
cation too, he says. 

Growth of workgroup com- 
puting and of client-server 
systems is also complicating 
both local office systems and 
corporate applications which 

combine local and central pro- 
cessing and data storage. 

“A major problem is that few 
organisations have defined sen- 
sible boundaries and responsi- 
bilities," Mr Bloor says. “It 
requires senior management 
intervention to exert control 
where it has been lost; it also 
requires the formulation of 
appropriate corporate stan- 
dards for both user depart- 
ments and comp uting depart- 
ments to apply.” 

He believes the computing 
department must concede con- 
trol and ownership of office 
systems to the users. “What is 
needed is a partnership 
between users and the comput- 
ing department which allows 
users’ enthusiasm and energy 
to be capitalised on and prop- 
erly channelled." 

This partnership must give 
software purchasing back to 
the centre. Mr Bloor says. This 
will not only produce the big- 
gest discounts but also ensure 
that there are corporate stan- 
dards, brin g in g savings in sup- 
port and training. 

The computing specialists 
must be allo wed to instil the 
discipline of software and data 
back-up and security in end-us- 
ers and hammer home the 

Boon office computing b now 
"genarafly out of control” 

importance of avoiding soft- 
ware piracy. 

If users are allowed to 
develop their own software, 
using spreadsheets or the 
increasing number of appar- 
ently (but not really) simple 
development products appear- 
ing on the market, the comput- 
ing department must be 
allowed the final say on testing 
and quality. 

Such proposals hi g hli g ht the • 
chang in g nature of the com- 
puting- department and the 
need to rethink software sup- 
port, according to Philip Virgo, 
head of IT Strategy Services, 

Computing staff in trio UK 



% change 





Systems unatymta 











Systems programmers 




Network staff 








User support 








Outside rr depts 

User support 




Sorar irStangv Samoa raaacft ana a 

who produces an annual study 
of skills trends. He says compa- 
nies need to review their com- 
puting department structures 
and recruitment policies in the 
light of the “fundamental 
change” in the nature of the 
computing c ommuni ty. 

Growth in the use of office 
software means that a new 
computing staff category - 
that of user support - has 
appeared Grom nowhere in the 
past five years. 

He believes most growth in 
employment in computing win 
be in user support - and that 
office software users them- 

selves could fill these jobs. 

Mr Virgo says recruitment 
traditionally involved taking 
on graduates as technicians 
and promoting them to 
systems analysts. But today’s 
need is especially for business 
analysts and user support peo- 

“Secretarial and admin staff 
are now often in charge of rou- 
tine computing in user depart- 
ments," Mr Virgo says. 

“Where computing is critical, 
the staff increasingly report to 
a user manager with solid com- 
puting experience, typically 
gained from a posting to the 

computer department for a 
systems project." 

He argues that such trends 
mean the demand lor comput- 
ing skills, especially in user 
support, could be met increas- 
ingly by retraining users. 

Mr Bloor agrees that office 
staff are becoming their own 
software support specialists: he 
says more than B0 per cent of 
end-user support is done “unof- 
ficially" by ond-u6ers who are 
supposed to be doing other 

This work Is not budgeted 
for. As a result, “the cost of 
providing support is out of con- 
trol in many large companies". 

Mr Bloor, however, tends to 
feel that support should be the 
responsibility or central com- 
puting professionals rather 
than retrained secretaries. 

Whatever the finer points 
here, companies must either 
promote the partnerships 
between user and computing 
departments that Mr Bloor 
talks about or sooner or later 
face the “horror stories" he 
uncovered. For people will 
increasingly use information 
technology to develop their 
own working environments, 
drawing together different 
pieces of software. 

“Ultimately, end-users will 
all become developers of a 
kind,” he says. “The trouble is, 
the typical end-user is bliss- 
fully unaware of sensible com- 
puting disciplines.” 

* The Butlerbloor report. Corpo- 
rate Strategy: the Desktop, is 
available on 0908 373311. 




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T ^paperless office has 
been an anting hnag u 
since the invention of 
word processing a flew decades 
ago- The promise was that it 
would improve efficiency and 
profitability by doing away 
with document duplication, 
lost invoices and desktop paper 

But most of business infor- 
mation Is still on paper. 

"At least 80 per cent of infor- 
mation is In paper form and 
that's not going to change in a 
hurry,” says Andrea Wharton, 
research director of Wharton 
Information Systems in the 
UK. “Computers might com- 
municate with each other, the 
buffs are cn nnniiw^ ^ ng on 
the Internet, hut for the major- 
ity of us, we'll still be using 
paper for at least another five 

The human attachment to 
paper Is only partly to hiam» 
For many small comp anies, it 
may not yet be worth the rela- 
tively high cost of investment 
In document imag in g systems, 
and for larger organisations, 
the move from, paper Is stm a 
"big conceptual leap", says Ms 

But the move away from 
paper has started and it is 
speeding up. The financial ser- 
vices sector continues to be the 
biggest user of document man. 
agement systems, followed by 
the oil and chemicals sector 
and government bodies. Elec- 
tronic document processing 
and management is one of the 
fastest- growing sectors in 
office automation. 

In its latest survey of buying 
intentions*, International Data 
Corporation, the US informa- 
tion technology analyst, pre- 
dicts that more than a third of 
companies and organisations 
will buy document manage- 
ment systems this year. 

The survey, of 300 US-based 
companies and organisations, 
indicates that government bod- 
ies are catching up with the 
financial sector as the biggest 
buyers. And while companies 
are becoming more demanding 
as the industry matures, more 
than 60 per cent of current 
users say that logging paper in 
and out of their document 
management systems is 
already saving them time. In a 
UK survey** by Wharton infer- 

Document management lacks an umbrella system, says Sheila Jones 

Looking for a super glue 

matron Systems, more than 
two-thirds of current users said 
they planned more spending in 
the craning year. 

But while there is a wide 
choice of software for specific 
applications , such as account- 
ing and loans procedures, the 
big gap in the market, accord- 
ing to the Wharton report, is in 
comprehensive systems that 
can be used across organisa- 
tions regardless of the type of 
information or where it is 

“At the heart of future 
systems there will have to be a 
product that can track and 
manage all the files in an 
organisation, no matter where 
they reside and no matter what 
data type they are - voice mes- 
sages, images, text files, data 
file.” In addition, users will 
need the "most flexible type of 
retrieval possible”. At the 
moment, organisations are 
“using bits of the ultimate 
solution, usually the bits that 
they perceive as having the 
most immediate impact on 
their organisation". 

T he report predicts that 
by the middlo of thin 
decade, the point will 
have been reached where the 
disparate elements of docu- 
ment management win have to 
be brought together in an 
umbrella system. “It is 
unlikely that any single organ- 
isation will be aide to provide 
that umbrella system plus all 
of the elements that operate 
underneath it If modem net- 
working systems such as Nov- 
ell Netware can be viewed as a 
sort of organisational 
glue . . . then what we are 
looking for in document man- 
agement terms is a super 

Organisations currently 
moving towards providing 
such a ghie include Interleaf, 
Saros, Soft Solutions and 
Excalibur, whose pattern rec- 
ognition technology is already 
bcxog used by other vendors as 

a building hinrv into their own 

Both the Wharton and IDC 
studies point to trends already 
under way that could lead 
towards a unified solution, 
helping buyers to find products 
that will easily integrate with 
their existing systems and that 
win look after all their process- 
ing ngprio IDC says alliances 
are being formed that wDl cre- 
ate standards to make docu- 
ment management possible 
across disparate systems. 

“The first erf these efforts is 
the Shamrock consortium, ini- 
tiated by Saros ibm, and 
joined by docunffinf managers, 
user corporations and infra- 
structure vendors such as 
Microsoft, Interleaf, Hew- 
lett-Packard, Adobe and 
Frame.” The Wharton report, 
howev er , cautions that Sham- 
rock. while seeking an 
umbrella system, also intends 
to preclude development of 
incompatible and counter-pro- 
ductive systems. 

“While we... applaud any 
action that helps to set stan- 
dards... we are rather more 
concerned about the idea of 
working to ‘predude incompat- 
ible and counter-productive* 
standards," says the report 
“Who is to be the arbiter?” 
Such statements, it adds "are 
more than a tittle worrying, 
especially when such large 
or ganisati o n s ... as IBM, Hew- 
lett-Packard and Microsoft are 
members of the coalition”. 

The Shamrock alliance has 
promised to produce integrated 
architecture that will bring 
together enterprise library ser- 
vices, document communica- 
tion and generation with busi- 
ness process applications. A 
first version of the foil system 
is due to be unveiled early next 

In the meantime, choosing a 
document management system 
continues to be difficult, espe- 
cially for smaller companies 
that cannot afford to employ 
specialists. Even for large 

Manufacturers have added a number of new 
features to photocopiers, says Julie Harnett 

Nearing a digital era 

Long past its forecast sell by 
date, the analogue photocopier 
market is alive and well and 
still growing, albeit at a more 
modest rate than in previous 

According to Jac q ueline Hen- 
driks, document management 
industry analyst at Datequest, 
the market increased by about 
7 per cent in 1993, with 115m 
photocopiers shipped in west 
era Europe and the UK 
accounting for 135,400 unit 

However, while manufactur- 
ers are still investing heavily 
in the technology, with the 
pijiiTi R&D focus being on 
higher reliability and produc- 
tivity with greater ease of use, 
the Industry is working 
steadily, if quietly and cau- 
tiously, towards the digital era. 

Oce van der Grinten, 
Europe's one remaining indige- 
nous copier manufacturer 
acclaimed for its "dean and 
green" high volume analogue 
machines, has intimated that 
1996 will mark the end of the 
line for further development of 
analogue machines, with all 
R&D investment from then 
being devoted to digital tech- 

It is not as bold a step as it 
may sound. As part erf a Euro- 
pean office automation initia- 
tive in the 1980s, Oce hosted 
the first ever demonstration of 
digital copier-printer technol- 
ogy with connectivity support 
across multiple computer plat- 

But the investment required 
to turn it into a co mmer cial 
product fine was not sustain* 

able, so the developments were 
put on the back burner to 

r;- 4 . : :; i : <V» ' £ 

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H&tef v-.'* ■’ .-1.3 

InfotBCh’s now 9385 is Rs tetect copter to date 

await a more digitally aware 

Developments across the 
copter industry over the past 
few years should make the 
copier-based printer (as dis- 
tinct from the printer that has 
a multiple copy function) the 
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tions looking for a directly con- 
nected output device that can 
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puter print world Include: 

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ble-sided copying, from image 
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• Robust paper feeding 
systems that mfrrimtsp the risk 
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• Longer lasting components 
that are more environmental 
friendly; and 

9 Graphical displays with 
touch-screen controls. 

Epitomising the latest 
trends, the Minolta CS Pro 
(Customer Satisfaction 
through increased Productiv- 
ity) Soles is claimed to be 250 
per cent more reliable than 
existing machines, with a CPU 
Watchdog facility which moni- 
tors each operation (feeding, 

duplex, sorting, stapling). 

Conthmed on page 6 

nr ganiag tiffDff , chfljff* C8H 

be hit nnri misB, particularly at 
a point in the industry's devel- 
opment when the central com- 
ponent for successful docu- 
ment management may be still 

missing . 

In the UK, according to the 
Wharton report, Keyfli? led the 
market last year among suppli- 
ers of software packages, most 
of which are Dos-based. 

Canofile still dominates In 
turnkey systems costing less 
than £50,000, according to 
Wharton, which identifies no 
dear leader among vendors of 
client/server systems costing 
more than £50,000, with the 
market shared by Fllenet, Oli- 
vetti, Wang. ICL and Trimco. 
Cimage, Intergraph and 
Trimco, lead in large format 

systems, which the industry is 
targeting the oil and utilities 

Advice on buying new 
systems can be sought from 
industry bodies, such as the 
UK Association of Information 
and Image Management (UK 
AimX There are also specialist 
books on the market such as 
the Document Management 
Yearbook, along with a raft of 
specialist magazines. 

* The 1994 Document Manage- 
ment User Awareness and Buy- 
ing Intention Survey. A Docu- 
ment Management Market 
Review, International Data Cor- 
poration, US. TeL 508872 820Q. 
** Document Management - the 
Next Steps. Wharton Informa- 
tion Systems (sponsored by UK 
Aim). TeL- 81 891 6197. 

103, KatdHA raw document management system 

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26 J9SU 


A few seconds makes all the difference, says Monica Horten 

Faster fax transmission helps 
cut the telephone bill 

One might wonder why it 
matters if a fox machine trans- 
mits a page of text in two sec- 
onds instead of 11. After all, 
the seven seconds makes little 
difference to most people. 

But fax machine vendors 
believe that speed is impor- 
tant, even if most of their cus- 
tomers do not realise it. Soper- 
fast fax machines, transmit- 
ting a page of A4 in just that 
amount of time are expected 
next year from manufacturers 
such as NEC. 

With prices predicted, to be 
about £3,000, they will be com- 
petitive against today's 
heavy-duty, top-of-the range 

The real benefit lies in the 
potential for savings on tele- 
communications costs. The 
two-second transmission time 
means that three to five pages 
can be transmitted in the same 
time as one today. Most 
installed fax machines trans- 
mit at 9.6 kilobits per second, 
averaging 9-11 seconds per 
page. The fastest machines 
transmit at 14.4 kilobits per 
second, which average six sec- 
onds per page. 

Businesses which regularly 
use Tax for long documents 
such as contracts, will notice a 
large reduction in the overall 
transmission times. If they are 
paying high international call 
charges, that redaction should 
translate into a lower tele- 
phone bill. 

The new machines will con- 
form to the Group 3 technical 
standard for fax - the most 
common type of fax machine 
used by businesses today. 
They will operate over ISDN 
lines at 64 kilobits per second. 

Similar transmission times 
are already possible on digital 
fox machines - available from 
manufacturers such as Canon 
and Ricoh. Digital fox. also 
known as Group 4 fax, has 
been available for several 

But it has not proved popu- 
lar. with less than 1,000 sales 
a year throughout Europe, 
according to figures from the 
industry consultancy BIS Stra- 
tegic Decisions. 

The reason is not that users 

doubt the benefit of the higher 
speed. It has more to do with 
technical standards- Group 4 
is incompatible with the anal- 
ogue Group 3 faxes. This 
means that it ^ only trans- 
mit to another Group 4 

Usually, Group 4 machines 
are sold In pairs, for a specific 
purpose. For example, a law 
Gnu with offices in the VS and 

Ricoh's Orris Wills says the 
cost ran be justified by com- 
paring the cost of a 1 -5-second 
transmission time with the 

Group 3 aver- 

age of 11-15 
seconds at 
call rates. 

“Yon can work 
ont a payback 

in months 

rather than mmmmmmmm 
years,” Mr Wills explains. 

Bnt BIS consultant Bruce 
Clements, believes the saper- 
fast Group 3 machines will be 
a better option than Group 4 
because they can talk to any 
Group 3 fox - they adjust the 
transmission speed where 
there is a slower fax at the 
other end. 

He points ont that 1.9m fax 
machines were sold in western 
Europe in 1993. “It is a ques- 
tion of the installed base. The 
whole point of fox is that you 
can talk to someone else,” said 
Mr Clements. 

But speed is not the only 
area of change for fox technol- 
ogy. Next year's fax machines 
will look different, and in 
many cases will do much more 
than faxing. Ricoh’s IFS 66, 
which is now under develop- 
ment, will incorporate PC-fax 
and electronic mail facilities. 
It will also function as a 
printer and a document scan- 

Hie new “intelligent fox" 
will allow people to receive 
faxed information, add to it 
and then send it on to some- 
one else as electronic mail. It 
will also hold individual 
phone books for people, which 
will be able to store regular 
fox destinations. 

Programming numbers into 

Next year’s fax 
machines will look 
different and in many 
cases will do much more 
than just faxing 

the machine will be made 
easier using the new touch 
screen controls - a grap hic 
user interface with computer- 
style screen icons. To send to 
regular destinations, people 
will access their phone book, 

highlight the number and 

The product derives from a 
development led by software 
company Microsoft. Called 
Microsoft At Work, it aims to 
produce a common means for 
connecting disparate pieces of 
office equipment, including 
printers, scanners and copiers 

as well as fax 

Today, all 
products are 
and linking 
them together 
is difficult. 

■ Other fox man- 
ufacturers working with 
Microsoft include NEC, Canon, 
and OkL 

The At Work interface will 
mean that fax machines can tie 
attached to local area net- 
works, and use them to con- 
trol incoming and outgoing 
communications. It should 
also be possible to use fax 
machines as linking equip- 
ment between two different 
local area networks such as 
Banyan Vines and Novell Net- 
ware. At Work products will 
become an alternative to the 
PC-fax and Lan-fax packages 
currently available, such as 
Delrina Winfax and Gamma 

Some industry observers 
question the need for At Work 
when these other products 
already exist. But At Work 
proponents claim that many 
businesses are familiar with 
fox. hot have difficulty under- 
standing computer communi- 
cations. Providing them with a 
means of linking the fax 
machine to a computer net- 
work, is a more acceptable 
solution, they say. 

Paul Gibson, sales director 
at Oki Systems said “techno- 
fear” stops many businesses 
from buying PC-fox products. 
The At Work products provide 
“the best of both worlds. And 

you don't need to know how it 
works”, he said. 

Oki has a forerunner prod- 
uct to the At Work concept, 
which integrates fax with a 
printing and copying functions 
under the control of a PC, for 
just below £3,000. 

Ricoh’s Chris Jobling points 
oat that the At Work concept 
more closely integrates the 
computer system with the fox, 
t*\nn the traditional PC-fax 
products. The At Work con- 
cept incorporates the stand- 
alone fax, with the PC-fax, the 
Email, the printer and the 
scanner, he says. To get the 
«nni» functionality without It, 
would mean exiting me appli- 
cation and going into another. 
The operation would not be as 

NEC’s forthcoming Nefax- 
MFD, also based on the At 
Work interface, will enable the 
fox machine to be used as an 
optical filing system, by 
attaching an optical disk 

It will also have extra secu- 
rity via an electronic signa- 
ture. The signature effectively 
seals a document so that it 
cannot be tampered with. It 
can also be used to generate 
an audit trail, showing where 
the fox bad been and who bad 
looked at it 

The At Work project is also 
expected to design a standard 
screen interface for foxes and 
other equipment Screen-based 
fox controls should mean that 
the machines are easier to use 
than today’s unfriendly 
machines whieb provide no 

However, industry observers 
warn that At Work concept 
has yet to be proven. “Just 
because you develop some- 
thing, doesn’t mean that it 
will be taken up,” said Lester 
Davis, of the British Facimile 
Industry Consultative Commit- 

There is further concern 
that the development is being 
led by a single software ven- 
dor. The fax industry tradi- 
tionally has developed techni- 
cal standards by consultation, 
and by mutual agreement on a 
common approach. 


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Pr inter sales show a continued appetite for paper, says J ujj f Ham gtt 

Documents not yet dead 

Paper prices may be rising, 
business, but our appetite for 
documentation is apparently 
insatiable. Multimedia commu- 
nications and electronic data 
storage may be growth mar- 
kets, but the paperless office is 
clearly as for away as ever. 

Almost 9m printers were 
sold in Europe in 1993, an 
increase of 8 per cent on the 
year, according to Matthew 
Cbedd ey, printer market ana- 
lyst at market research com- 
pany BIS Strategic Decisions. 
Some 4m of those units were 
inkjet printers (most designed 
for personal use). 1.5m. more 
than m 1992. 

The survival of a mass dot 
matrix market appears 
doomed. Just under 3m dot 
matrix printers were shipped 
in 1993, 1.3m fewer than in 
1992. Indeed, Mr Checkley fore- 
casts that by 1998, the dot 
matrix market will be reduced 
to a niche sector with just S 
per cent of total printer sales - 
for applications such, as high 
volume multi-part stationery. 

But while the Star Micronics 
factory in Wrexham has col- 
lapsed under the strain, other 
dot matrix suppliers are opti- 

Rod Saar, managing director 
at Mannesmann Tally believes 
dot matrix will still represent 
20 per cent of the total printer 
market by 1998. 

Eddie Huggins, director of 
marketing at Citizen, agrees, 
riaiming sales of the ABC Col- 
our dot matrix printer, at 30 
per cent above market expecta- 
tions, proves that it is still a 
viable technology in the SoHo 
(small office/home office) mar- 
ket where an occasional colour 
capability at low cost is a 

However, inkjet is dearly the 
technology for the masses. 
According to Romtec, the total 
UK printer market in 1993 was 
worth £740m of which inkjet 
printers commanded a 23.6 per 
cent share by value. 36 per 
cent by unite. Of that market, 
Canon claimed a 41 per cent 
share in value. 52 per cent by 

All four manufacturers of 
core inkjet technology (Canon, 
Epson, Hewlett Packard and, 
more recently, Olivetti), hope 
to benefit from the trend 
towards colour capable inkjet 
printing, with Mr Checkley of 
BIS projecting sales of 6m such 
units per year .by 1998. 

The potential revenues 
appeal to Amstrad. Just three 
years after saying that there 
was no money in computer 
peripherals and the only thing 
to do with existing stocks was 
to “throw them in the River 
Thames”, Amstrad boss Alan 

More than 1m laser/LED 
printers were sold In 
1993 and volumes are 
expected to increase 

Xerox 4850 Wgh&ght cotow copier. Hank Xerox predicts sales 00 per cant ahead of target by the year's end 

Sugar announced a collabora- 
tive agreement with Jarfalla 
ICC, ABB. a manufacturer part 
owned by IBM, to produce a "a 
landmark” product in compact 
low cost high quality inkjet 
printer technology. 

Both Mr Checkley of BIS and 
Graham Salmons of Printer 
Europe, Dataquest point to the 
rise in the sales of laser/LED 
printer as an indication that 
the days of mono (black only) 
inkjet are numbered. 

More than lm laser/LED 
printers were sold during 1993 
and volumes are expected to 
increase significantly over the 
next year or two with the 
advent of Windows GDI 
(Graphical Device Interface) 
laser printers, such as the 

Mannesmann Tally T-WIn. 

Hie advantages of GDI tech- 
nology are that it is easier to 
use, has foster PC-to-print pro- 
cessing speeds and truer WYSI- 
WYP (What you See is What 
You Printer). It also avoids the 
need for a complex built-in 
printer control language and a 
control panel; hence the low 

NEC was the first to intro- 
duce a GDI printer and it now 
hopes to set the printer world 
plight with the second genera- 
tion series of Superscript print- 
ers bringing GDI advantages to 
network applications. NEC is 
not alone, with others, includ- 
ing Brother, hard on its heels. 

The frenetic activity in the 
low end personal page printer 
market could affect the posi- 
tions of the market leaders. 
For now though, according to 
BIS Strategic Decisions, Hew- 
lett Packard continues to domi- 
nate this sector with a 51 per 
cent share (up from 39 per cent 
in 1993), its nearest rival being 
Oki with 7 per cent (up from 6 
per cent in 1992). 

A long-promised Microsoft at 
Work concept, it is said, will 
provide users with a common 
graphical interface for click-on 
access to any function includ- 
ing copying and fox. 

Although there are about 75 
companies involved, the only 
evidence of developments to 

date is the Lexmark Win Writer 
600 (DPI) launched earlier this 
year. With no competitors to 
help drive the market, it could 
be something of a hollow vic- 
tory, although 1995 might 
change all that 

Development activity in the 
networked printer market is 
just as heady; and no wonder. 

Industry analysts point to 
the advantageous 
features of developments 
such as IBM’s strategic 

According to Dataquest, by 
1997 more than 70 per cent of 
European PCs will be con- 
nected to Laos, resulting in a 
tripling of network printers 
within the nest five years. 

Canon, winch has produced 
10m laser beam print engines 
(70 per cent of the total) in the 
past 10 years, is targeting 
small groups with the LPB-4i, a 
4 ppm Windows printer priced 
at the same level as a high 
specification inkjet The price 
per user is almost at dot 
matrix levels. 

As individuals increasingly 
run different applications 
simultaneously, network print- 
ers from suppliers such as 
Mannesmann Tally, Oce-Print- 
ing Systems and QMS have 

been obliged to introduce state- 
of-the-art simultaneous pro- 
cessing of multiple jobs. 

At the high volume end of 
the market industry analysts 
such as the GartnerGroup. 
point to the advantageous fea- 
tures ol IBM's strategic archi- 
tecture (AFP). 

Information from any source 
in any form - plain text, 
graphics, images, tar codes or 
forms with small print - can 
be printed out on any printer. 

Rank Xerox meanwhile has 
launched a range of network 
printers featuring intuitive 
software, called Document Ser- 
vices for Printing. As well as 
allowing systems administra- 
tors to track usage and gener- 
ate charge-backs and account- 
ing reports for specific 
departments, it enables users 
to search the network for the 
printer that best suits the 
needs of the job at the time. 

The advance of colour print- 
ing in the general office is also 
gathering pace, with thermal 
transfer technology the main 

Several product launches 
over the past few weeks, plus 
some aggressive price reduc- 
tions of anything op to 50 per 
cent on existing machines, 
show that manufacturers such 
as Kodak, Mitsubishi and Tek- 
tronix believe it is a market 
worth fighting for. 

But most industry analysts 
look to laser as the colour tech- 
nology of the future. BIS Stra- 
tegic Decisions forecast this 
sector will grow much faster 
than colour copiers, with unit 
sales rising from 130 units in 
1992 to 32.500 In 1997. 

It could be higher if the QMS 
ColourScript Laser 1000 and 
the Oce 6460 desktop machines 
are joined by lower cost units 
from other suppliers. 

In September, two months 
after launching the 4900 colour 
laser printer. Rank Xerox was 
predicting that sales would be 
50 pet cent ahead of target by 
the end of the year, with dis- 
tributors already ordering over 
and above original schedules. 

The market should be in full 
swing next year when Hewlett 
Packard launches its Colour 
LaserJet in the UK. Already 
available in the US and Can- 
ada, it is interesting to note the 
use of a Konica colour laser 

Nicky Ayres, responsible for 
network printer marketing at 
Hewlett Packard in the UK, 
said that the engine has “excel- 
lent colour registration with 
one-pass (higher speed) print- 

Such developments mean 
that 1995 could become an even 
more interesting year for the 
printer industry than 1994 

New era for photocopiers 

Continued from page 5 
If a fault develops, the function 
concerned is isolated so that 
other copier functions can con- 
tinue to be osed as normal. 

Higher productivity innova- 
tions include: 

• More logical left to right 
feeding of originals and 
two-way remote diagnostics 
facility (Minolta); 

• A zoom area indicator 
which tells the user which area 
of the original will be copied, 
plus a new print engine which 
only requires servicing once 
every 100,000 copies (Toshiba); 

• An I-ADF (inverting auto- 
matic document feeder) which 
automatically counts, feeds, 
copies and returns up to 50 
originals in order (Panasonic). 

Developments from Ricoh 
include an auto tandem paper 
tray with automatic switching 
for continuous operation; a 
dual feeder which allows one 
job to be started as another is 
being completed; a 360,000-cop; 
organic drum: and auto sens- 
ing of operator presence which 
automatically activates the 
touch-screen LCD control 

At Sharp- the main focus is 
an high volume copying with 
an innovative vacuum paper 
feed system which lifts and 

separates each sheet of copy 
paper for trouble-free opera- 
tion; while at Konica a low-vol- 
ume copier has a clam-shell 
design which opens from the 
back rather than the ride to 
give service engineers easier 
access, plus cross-range com- 
pliance with the more strin- 
gent Blue Angel n environmen- 
tal standards. 

Most manufacturers with 
digital products in the wings, 
including Info tec. Konica, Lan- 
ier, Minolta and Ricoh, say 
that the bid for a share of the 
copier-printer market will 
begin in earnest in 1995. The 
only question is, how digital 
will be the products. 

Clever tricks offering 
advanced image manipulation 
such as 999 per cent zoom 
rednetion and enlargement 
may be a talking point, but 
they are hardly practical fea- 
tures likely to win over users 
on a general office computer 

More useful is easy access to 
the document production facili- 
ties and transparent connectiv- 
ity with good software. 

"Digital copiers like the AR- 
5040 will challenge the way 
companies think about the role 
of the copier in the document 
production process," says 
David Naylor, general manager 

for copiers and fax at Sharp 

“Features such as duplex 
(double sided) scanning, mail- 
merge. anamorphic zoom and 
even booklet production, com- 
bined with a SCSI interface, 
will bring a new level of docu- 
ment finishing at the work- 
group level previously only 
available on much large, high 
volume copiers”. 

Industry analysts such as 
Jacqueline Hendriks of Data- 
quest point to the Canon GPS5 
which can now be delivered 
with a computer interface that 
turns it from an expensive 
copier into a high-speed (30 
pages per minute) network 
laser printer/copier complete 
with A3, duplex, sorting and 
stapling capabilities. 

Unlike commercial concerns, 
educational establishments 
have already embraced the 
concept of the digital copyprin- 
ter, in the form of the upgrade- 
able electronic duplicator from 
suppliers such as Alcatel, Ges- 
tetner, Infotec, Ricoh and Riso. 

Offering speeds up to 130 
copies per minute, a hi gh 400 
DPI resolution and cost per 
copy or less then lp in multi- 
copy mode, 40 per cent of pur- 
chasers say the cost-justifica- 
tion or paying a higher price 
for a copying facility was the 

ability to upgrade it to digit 
copier-printer at a later date 
allow direct input from a pc 
sonal computer. 

The future of digital coloi 
copying for general offii 
applications is not quite so cc 
tain, however. 

Buyers know that access 
such a facility would enab 
them to produce more ey 
catching presentations ax 
improve their chances of wl 
ning new business, but the c s 
alyst of change is usually co 

Nevertheless, the 1904 Koch 
Office Imaging survey four 
that more than a quarter 
organisations in the UK ui 
spot colour for 10-30 per cent 
document colour compare 
with just 6 per cent a year ag 
Moreover, 50 per cent of cot 
ponies reported that io p> 
cent of their total documei 
output was colour compart 
with one in 10 companies 

Yet, according to Roger Ris 
ley of InfoQuest, a new mark 
research organisation, ju 
1,300 colour units were so] 
last year, with only the Cane 
CLC 10 selling in anything HI 
“real numbers, though far lea 
than in 1992”. Partly responj 
bla for the decline, he suggest 
was the arrival of the Xen 
Majestik which “was he ginnw 
to walk away with the coloi 
market towards the end 





Mobile phones 

Cutting the 
cost of 


Hollywood would have ns 
believe that mobile plumes are 
the answer to life. In between 
the bullets, Keanu Reeves, 
hero of the high- adrenal in 
movie “Speed" spends hours 
on a mobile. In Harrison 
Ford’s in “Clear and Present 
Danger”, mobile phones are 
used to run a covert 

Reality soons parts from fan- 
tasy. Ur Reeves' mobile bat- 
teries never seem to wear out. 
And Harrison Ford is not seen 
paying any phone bills. But 
for the company whose phones 
aren't running on charisma, 
paying the bill is a costly busi- 

One way of beeping costs 
down when phoning the office 
rather is to link the office 
PABX (switchboard) directly 
to a mobile phone network. 

Even if a company has only 
five heavy mobile phone users 
calling the office regularly, 
this approach can cut costs by 
up to 45 per cent, according to 
Mike Short, a spokesman for 
cellular network operator Cell- 

To get these savings, a com- 
pany must rent a telecoms line 
of up to 30km from Mercury or 
BT and sign up for Cellnefs 
Call Access service or Voda- 
fone’s Vodanet 

The leased line will link the 
PABX to a switching centre 
(or a radio base station), 
which is part of the mobile 
phone network. The centre 
will switch calls between the 
PABX and the 
cellular net- 

Call Access 
and Vodanet 
can cut the 
cost of calls to 
and from the 
office because 
these calls don't have to travel 
through the BT or Mercury 

Another advantage is that 
dialing and call set-up times 
are faster. 

Vodafone spokesman Mike 
Caldwell says that when he 
wants to call another member 
of staff from his mobile, he 
simply dials a short code (91 
in this case), followed by the 
colleague's extension number. 
The call does not have to be 
answered by the receptionist 
but goes straight to his col- 
league's desk. 

Incoming calls to staff who 
are out of the office can also 
be handled more conveniently. 
If they cannot be dealt with by 
someone who is in the 
office, they can be transferred 
to the mobile user - without 
the caller having to dial 
another number. 

Vodanet and Call Access can 
be used with either analogue 
(traditional) mobile services or 
the newer GSM (Global System 
for Mobile) services. 

But whether a company 
wants to link its PABX to a 
mobile phone network, or sim- 
ply use mobiles by themselves, 
it is better to opt for phones 
based on digital technology, 
such as GSM or PCN (Personal 
Communications Network) - a 
variant on GSM. 

This is because digital tech- 
nology has a number of advan- 
tages over analogue technol- 

• Clearer conversations. Digi- 
tal technology cuts out back- 
ground noise on mobile 
phones just as it does on com- 
pact discs. 

• Greater security. Digital 
signals are encrypted electron- 
ically before they are sent and 
this makes eavesdropping 
more difficult. 

• Faster connection. Once the 
number has been dialed on a 
digital phone, the call will be 
connected immediately. On an 
analogue phone call set-up 
times are about six or seven 

• Reduced congestion. GSM 
networks can cope with eight 
times as much traffic- as anal- 
ogue systems. This reduces the 
possibility of congestion. PCN 
networks are also able to han- 
dle more traffic than can the 

analogue systems. 

• Pan-European coverage. 
csm is becoming the standard 
for new European digital 

mobile phone services and has 
been adopted in many other 
parts of the world. HaiMfeefa; 
bought in one country can be 
used to send and receive cans 
in another through so-called 
roaming agreements with 
national service providers. 
Very limited overseas roaming 
is also possible for users of 
PCN services. 

• Better transmission for 
mobile data. It is easier to 
transmit data over digital 
mobile phone networks than 
over their analogue counter- 

Vodafone wffl be lanudring 
the OK’s first GSM data com- 
munications service, Vodafone 
Data on 19 October. 

Market researchers are pre- 
dicting strong growth for digi- 
tal mobile networks. Data- 
quest forecasts that there will 
be &31m GSM subscribers in 
Europe by 1996. High growth 
Is also expected for UK PCN 
networks with Mercury's 
OneZOne gaining over 120^00 
subscribers since its launch 

Tgct anlunm. 

There are plenty of digital 
mobile phone services to 
choose from. In most Euro- 
pean countries indudmg the 
UK there are two competing 
GSM networks, and in a few, 
PCN networks have also been 
licensed. The disadvantage is 
that the hand- 
sets cost more 
than those for 
analogue ser- 

In the UK 
the main sup- 
pliers of GSM 
networks are 
Vodafone (with two GSM tar- 
iffs: EuraDigttal and MetroDi- 
grtel) and Celhiet Registration 
and monthly charges for using 
their GSM services are snufiar 
to those for their analogue ser- 
vices. But UK GSM handsets 
cost £100 more than equiva- 
lent analogue handsets and 
typically range from £200 to 

Handsets for using either of 
the UK's two PCN networks: 
Mercury’s One20ne or Orange 
from Hutchison Telecom are 
also expensive. Whereas anal- 
ogue phones can be had for as 
little as £49 and are sometimes 
given away free, PCN handsets 
usually cost between £149 and 
£299 depending on the model 
chosen. However, call charges 
tend to be lower for PCN than 
for GSM. 

Handset prices are not Hkely 
to remain high for long. Diana 
Jones of service provider Mer- 
cury Communications Mobile 
Services, says: “By Christmas, 
GSM handsets should be the 
same price as high-quality 
analogue phones - ranging 
from £99 to £299.” 

One way of getting a 
cheaper GSM handset before 
then is to shop around in 
Europe. Charges for phones 
vary from country to country, 
and depending on whether 
they are bought with or with- 
out airtime. So it is worth 
comparing prices. 

But if yon plan to use your 
GSM phone outside the 
national network you register 
with, beware of the huge 
mark-ups on cross-border 

These can add an extra 30-45 
per cart to GSM call charges, 
according to Bryan Van Dus- 
sen, a senior analyst at the 
Yankee Group Europe. 

Despite high call charges 
when abroad and patchy cov- 
erage in some countries, most 
early customers feel limy get 
value for money in terms of 
convenience and savings on 
hotel phone bills. 

Of course, high handset and 
call charges do not worry Hol- 
lywood mobile users. As well 
as hijacking a car before giv- 
ing chase, they now take the 
mobile too. 

Joia Shillingford 

Most early customers 
feel they get value for 
money in terms of 
convenience and savings 
on hotel phone bills 


July 1992 - July 1994 

This index has been compiled for researchers 
and libraries and those who reqiare a sound 
briefing on national and international subjects. 

A useful cross index of all FT surveys published 
in the above period, listed in alphabetical 
order and subject 

To receive yow oowi send a che ** i ® ** £3 - D0 
made payable to financial Times to: 

Marketing Dep a r tm ent, financial Tlntea 
Number One Southwark Bridge, 

London SE1 9HL 
Teh +44(0)171 873 3213 

Joia Shillingford finds new openings in the switchboard market 

Widening the network 

T he market for office PABXs 
(switchboards) is growing so 
slowly that all the leading sup- 
. pliers are scrambling to find new 
sources of revenue. Bryan Van Dus- 
sen, an analyst at the Yankee Group 
Europe, says the industry is almost 
dead, with only 2-3 per cent growth a 
year worldwide. However, two new 
techno logies pn wtffrit , ipport unitass for 
growth: wireless PAHXs and multime- 
dia (the convergence of sound, image, 

pfunpviil » 

Wireless PABXs allow users to 
make aid receive calls using cordless 
handsets. It makes no difference 
where abouts they are in the office, so 
long as they are within reach of a 
r adio base station. One or more base 
<frgtiopg will be connected to the office 
PABX, which liTiim users to the fixed 
phone network. 

Tim beauty of the technology is that 
companies do not need to throw out 
their old switchboard to use it It is 
possible to buy an add-on device 
which plugs into a standard PABX 
and Hnjfg it to one QT ninr p ha op sta- 
tions. It is also possible for fixed- 
phone and cordless users to coexist 
on ftp bum switchboard. 

This is important because not all 
company workers need cordless hand- 
sets, and because equipping a cordless 
user will cost mare. According to Mr 
Van Dussen, the average cost of con- 
necting an office worker to a standard 
PABX is 5350 including the handset 
and infrastructure. The cost of equip- 
ping a cordless user is about three 
times more expensive at $1,000, and it 
can be more if a lot of base stations 
are required. 

High prices help to explain why the 
wireless PABX market has been rela- 
tively slow to take off. Other Inhibi- 
tors to growth include conflicting 
standards and a limited choice of 

The development of desktop multi- 
media applications could also add lus- 
tre to the PABX industry. Two main 
multimedia applications involve the 
PABX, according to Mr Van Dussen. 
They are: 

• Desktop video-conferencing and 

• Collaborative whiteboarding. 

The first enables PC users to see a 
video image of the person they are 
talking to on the phone. The moving 
video image is displayed in a “win- 
dow” on their PC. 

The second enables PC users in dif- 
ferent places to look at the same 
image or te>rt tn a window on their 

As with a real whiteboard, they can 
annotate the image, which could be 
anything from a diagram to a spread- 
sheet Whiteboarding and desktop vid- 
eo-conferencing can be used either 
separately or simultaneously. 

Because such applications are now 
possible, US computer companies 
such as Intel, Microsoft and Novell 

have started to become more inter- 
ested in voice technology. This has 
led software companies such as Micro- 
soft and Novell to try and set stan- 
dards for the way PCs instruct 
PABXs. Each “standard" has its own 
supporters among computer compa- 

Microsoft has defined Tapi (Tele- 
phony Applications Programming 
Interfere) and Novell has come up 
with a rival definition. Tsapi (Tele- 
phony Services Applications Program- 

ming Interface). 

Novell and Microsoft are each Imp- 
ing that their standards will be used 
to develop CTI (Computer Telephony 
Integration) applications, where com- 
puters and PABXs work closely 

Mr Van Dussen describes his dream 
CTI application as a computer data- 
base linked to a PABX. His phone 
would be answered automatically and 
calls routed according to the phone 
number of the caller (this will be pos- 
sible when BTs calling line identifica- 
tion service is launched). 

A software program would deter- 
mine from the database whether the 
incoming call should be routed to his 
voice mailbox, his secretary or 
directly to him. In certain cases, it 
would just hang up on the caller. 

Such call-routing applications arc 
useful to telephone-sales centres. 
There is also demand for CTI In many 
other areas, for example order-taking, 
where phone orders go sLralght into a 

The Yankee Group is positive about 
the opportunities for PABX suppliers 
to penetrate some of the new markets 
created by developments in wireless 
technology, multimedia and computer 
telephone integration. 

It believes that Dect will grow rap- 
idly as a wireless PABX application, 
rising from less than 0.1m lines 
installed in 1991 to more than 2.6m in 
the year 2000. 

In addition. Cordless Dect- based 
phones, such as those sold by Siemens 
of Germany, could one day be used to 
bypass the local loop (such as BTs 
local phone network in the UK) and 
provide direct connoction to 
long-distance carriers such os Mer- 

Joia Shillingford is Associate Editor of 
the Financial Times newsletter Busi- 
ness Computmg Brief 

Paul Taylor on prospects for cordless business communications 

Wireless office beckons 

Vodafone's GSM service slows data to bo sent and received using a cfigltai mobfle phone 

B y the end of the decade, market 
analysts predict that up to a 
fifth of new office telecommu- 
nications equipment installed will be 

“Wireless office equipment will 
grow from virtually nothing in 1993 to 
nearly 20 per cent of the market by 
the year 2000 while wireline-based 
PABXs (switchboards) and key 
systems dip correspondingly," said 
Frost & Sullivan, the US-based market 
research firm in a recent report 
Systems manufacturers such as 
GPT Communications Systems, a 
Joint venture between Germany's Sie- 
mens group and Britain's GPT, tend 
to be more cautious suggesting that 
cordless systems could take between 
10 and 15 per cent of the market by 
the turn of the century. 

£3ther way, the projected growth of 
cordless business communications 
systems is impressive - driven by fall- 
ing hardware prices and the perceived 
benefits in terms of mobility, flexibil- 
ity and productivity. 

The Frost & Sullivan repeat pre- 
dicted: “The wireless office will gain 
popularity as the price of systems 
decline. Prime target end-users 
include salespersons, top manage- 
ment, employees in distribution mid 
manufacturing firms and healthcare 

“The popularity of cellular phones 
and the emergence of personal core 
munications systems will stimulate 
use of wireless handsets for ln-build- 
ing use as users increasingly seek the 
same convenience they are used to 
outside the office foqj da buildings.” 

Basic cordless telephones have been 
av ailabl e for use in the home since 
the early 1980s. Generally these 
systems include a portable handset 
which communicates by radio with a 
single fixed base-station which is then 
in turn connected to the public tele- 
phone network. 

In recent years technical advances, 
particularly the switch from analogue 
to digital radio transmission, has 
greatly increased the scope of cordless 

office systems mahling high-capacity 
systems using multiple micro-cellular 
base stations and capable of serving 
hundreds or even thousands of busi- 
ness users to be constructed. 

The first large-scale business cord- 
less systems were launched in 1992. 

The advantages of cordless business 
telephone systems are fairly obvious. 
In particular, workers are no longer 
tied to the location of a particular 
hard-wired telephone extension and 
incoming calls have a modi better 
chance of reaching their intended 

S urveys have shown that up to 
70 per cent of all business calls 
fail to reach their target an the 
first attempt often feeding to what 
has been dubbed “telephone tag”. 
Cordless systems can reduce this call 
failure rate substantially, improving 
efficiency and customer satisfaction 
while cutting cost by removing the 
need to return calls. 

Ericsson, the European telecommu- 
nications equipment manufacturer, 
claims that cordless business systems 
can save customers up to 30 per cent 
of their hflfe as a result. 

Cordless systems can also save on 
the costs of rewiring and other config- 
uration operations which can be 
around 10 per cent of the capital cost 
of the system for organisations run- 
ning medium-sized or large PABX 

In addition, as Multrtone, the UK- 
based pager and cordless telephone 
system supplier, points out, cordless 
systems are extremely cost-effective 
to run once installed since there are 
no airtime charges, internal calls are 
free and external cans cost the same 
as from an ordinary desk telephone. 

Multitone’s CS500 system connects 
directly to a PABX and so no expen- 
sive changes need to be made to an 
existing hard-wired system and the 
same desk telephones and extension 
numbers can continue to be used. 

Recognising that many companies 
cannot justify the cost of covering a 
whole site with a cordless system, the 
CS500 also cones with paging soft- 
ware «g»bitng handset users to roam 
outside cordless coverage and still 
stay In touch. 

However, if cordless business 
systems are to flourish, there are sev- 
eral obstacles to overcome. In particu- 
lar there are two main rival cordless 
business system technology stan- 

dards. CT2 (Cordless Telephony 2) and 
Dect (Digital European Cordless tele- 

nmnmiiTiiratinng ) 

CT2 was the first digital cordless 
technology to be developed in (he UK 
during the 1980s and has been 
adopted as an interim European stan- 
dard. It is the same technology used 
for Teiepoint services in Europe and 

GPT Communications Systems and 
Canada's Northern Telecom have 
been supplying cordless office 
systems which are based upon CT2 
digital technology - BT also supplies 
re-badged Northern Telecom systems 
and Multitone's C$500 cordless sys- 
tem is supplied under an agreement 

with Northern Telecom. 

The Canadian group, which is also 
developing a Dect system for up to 
1,000-users in conjunction with Oli- 
vetti, launched its Companion CT2 
cordless business systems in Europe 
in March last year and has sold over 
1,000 systems in 13 European coun- 
tries and the Middle East since then 
and over 2,000 systems worldwide. 

CT2‘s supporters claim that it is a 
proven and cost-effective technology 
ideally suited to small and medium- 
sized offices. CT2 handsets currently 
cost about a third of the price of their 
Dect rivals and are likely to retain a 
price advantage because of the adop- 
tion of the technology outside Europe 
- for example, in the Far East 

The rival Dect standard is backed 
by ETSI (the European Telecoms 
Standards Institute) and was designed 
to solve the problem of providing 
cordless plumes in high-density busi- 
ness environments such as offices. 

Five of Europe’s largest telecommu- 
nications equipment suppliers - 
Alcatel Ericsson, Nokia, Philips and 
Siemens - which between them repre- 
sent nearly 70 per cent of the Euro- 
pean PABX market adopted the Dect 
standard in March 1993 and the first 
Dect systems begun to appear shortly 

Ericsson has been one of the most 
active promotors of Dect systems and 
launched its Freeset system in Europe 
last autumn although it has been sell- 
ing similar systems outside Europe 
for some time. 

Freeset systems have already been 
installed in manufacturing factories, 
hospitals and “offices of the future" 
such as Digital Equipment's futuristic 
headquarters in Stockholm. 

In time, telecommunications strate- 
gists believe cordless office telecom- 
munications systems will be inte- 
grated with other digital telecoms 
services Including GSM (global sys- 
tem for mobile) and PCN services, and 
with wireless local area networks 
linking desktop computers, workstat- 
ions and other devices. 

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T he decision this autumn by the 
Department of Trade and Industry 
to invite bids for the UK's fifth 
mobile data licence caused amazement in 
an industry that has had to familiarise 
itself with unpleasant surprises since its 
inception five years ago. 

“Anyone applying for a licence now 
would have to be crazy,” was the reaction 
of one industry executive to the DTI deci- 
sion to increase competition in a market 
where customers are today only a tenth of 
what was predicted three years ago. 

The three existing operators - Ram 
Mobile Data. Cognito and Faknet - only 
have 5,000-10.000 customers between them 
compared to industry predictions in 1991 
that a market of 100,000 would have devel- 
oped by the end of this year. 

The high aims were based on the 
assumption that mobile data would breach 
a huge market of business users. Any trav- 
eller away from the office, it was argued, 
would want to retrieve information from 
an office database or Immediately input 

The future for mobile data is in niche applications, says Richard Handford 

Revitalising a stagnant market 

new data, a successful sale, for example, 
rather than waiting to return to the office. 

Instead, it appears the future for mobile 
data is in developing a number of niche 
applications, although not all of them pop- 
ular - For instance, Ram Mobile Data's ter- 
minals are used by traffic wardens in a 
number of London councils who issue a 
total of 5m parking tickets each year. The 
wardens can send and receive details 
about illegally parked vehicles far more 
efficiently this way than by using alterna- 
tives such as a cellular telephone. 

Other niche applications Include emer- 
gency organisations such as the Sue and! 
ambulance services, parcel delivery com- 

panies and TrafSonaster, the UK traffic 
monitoring system which uses the Paknet 
network to relay signals containing infor- 
mation about traffic conditions collected 
from roadside monitors to the company's 
control centre. 

The system then uses a paging network 
to carry the same information on to its 
subscribers in their cars. 

The radio-paging industry is casting 
around for new approaches to avoid being 
superceded by cellular operators who ana 
offering increasingly competitively-priced 
handsets and tariff packages. 

Aside from initiatives such as Traffic- 
master , paging operators are looking at 

two ways to revitalise a stagnant market 
One is to maintain paging's price advan- 
tage over cellular telephones by introduc- 
ing new. cheaper tariff packages. The 
other is to make the pager a more sophisti- 
cated product that offers similar services 
to a mobile data network. 

This autumn has seen the launch by BT 
and Mercury - two of the UK’s four paging 
operators of a new kind of paging service 
first developed in Sweden. 

The market certainly needs this kind of 
Initiative. In the past year the number of 
subscribers has grown by only about 
780,000. Mercury estimates the new ser- 
vices will add between 100,000 and 200.000 

new subscribers. 

The service, known as CPP or Calling 
Party Pays, is an attempt to widen the 
audience for paging services to include 
consumer as well as the business user. 

CPP services eliminate one-off connec- 
tion charges and monthly subscription 
leaving the user only having to pay the 
price of the pager. 

The operator recoups the revenue lost 
on connection and rental charges by 
char g in g callers a premium price for leav- 
ing a message for the subscriber. Cur- 
rently calls to pagers are billed at the 
standard local rate for calls. 

BT has given its service an extra twist 

bv introducing it with a wristwatc* pager 
In the UK - manufactured by 

Swatch. It hopes the pager will deliver the 
Sme kind of youthful audience drawn to 
the One-2-One cellular service, launched 

^h^^cond new innovation likely 1° 
reach the UK soon is the launch of ser- 
vices based on a new. digital technology 
that will enable operators to offer a semce 
that will deliver longer messages at higher 
speeds than is now possible. 

In addition. the new service known as 
Ermes (European radio message system) 
enables users to send and access infor- 
mation from office databases while the* 

are on the move. . 

Aside from teething problems, such as 
the discovery that in Germany Ernes 
causes interference to television pictures 
it is already available in Prance and will 
soon be offered in other European coun- 
tries It is likely to further add to tne 
competition faced by the UK’s mobile data 

S usie, a New York-based 
stockbroker working for 
a European bank, kept 
leaving messages on the 
answerpbone of a potential cli- 
ent. After six months, the cli- 
ent rang her and told her he 
only dealt with US banks. 

Her story shows just how 
prevalent a ns werph ones and 
voice mailboxes are becoming 
in US business, not only as a 
means for staff to receive mes- 
sages when they are absent 
from their desks but also as a 
way of filtering calls. 

Voice mail and answer- 
phones are also becoming more 
common in Europe, where 
growing call volumes are turn- 
ing the telephone into a mixed 

According to UK high street 
retailer Dixons, among the 
most popular answering 
machin es are those which add 
a date and time to each mes- 
sage (with a little help from a 
computer-generated voice). The 
cheapest of these is a £39.99 
machine from Be taco m. BT’s 
Response 50 goes a step further 
by bleeping when any mes- 
sages have been left 
But it may not be necessary 
to buy a separate answering 
machine at all. Increasingly, 
answering machines are being 
included in composite products 
such as Amstrad’s model 
which combines one with a fax 
machine. The latest multime- 
dia borne PC from Compaq 
includes an answerphone with 
12 segments - so that parents, 
for instance, do not have to 
waste time listening to mes- 
sages meant for their children. 

For the corporate environ- 
ment, voice messaging systems 
provide similar features to 

Joia Shillingford looks at the increasing use of messaging systems 

Mechanical voices a mixed blessing 

answerphones but can do 
much more. At their simplest, 
they allow callers to leave a 
message if the person they 
want to talk to is not available. 
By dialing the appropriate 
voice mailbox number (and a 
code), users can play messages 
back or forward them to 
another mailbox. 

But all too often systems are 

with spying on colleagues to 
see if they are changing their 
greetings regularly - for 
instance, when they are on hol- 
iday - and actually listening to 
their messages. 

The penalty for breaking the 
rules is to lose your voice mail- 
box and once again be sub- 
jected to a barrage of calls. 

Another potential problem 

KMlfceaV, | CAHT TALK. TO MACWiNS—'fiCJT t£l] 
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implemented poorly, l eading to 
horror stories of “voice mail 
Jail", where the caller is 
trapped in the system and 
bounced from one voice mail- 
box to another. 

However, individual users 
can be at fault. As a conse- 
quence, some US companies 
have appointed “voice mail 
police”. These are staff tasked 

with voice mail is security. 
This is because, depending on 
how they are set up, PABXs 
(switchboards) with integrated 
voice mail can be vulnerable to 

If special tones are used to 
operate a voice mailbox, these 
can sometimes be used to oper- 
ate the PABX. In tUs way, a 
number of hackers have used 

US company switchboards to 
run up huge bills. 

The Voice Messaging Educa- 
tional Committee (VMEC), 
whose members include AT&T, 
BT Mobile, Octel Communica- 
tions and VMX win publish a 
guide to voice mail security 
next month. 

In spite of security problems, 
use of voice mail is expanding 
in the US. A study there by the 
voice systems consultancy 
Vanguard Communications 
says that the US voice man 
industry grew over 20 per cent 
last year, with sales topping 

Don Van Doren, president of 
Vanguard, says: “The bottom 
line is that voice mail 
improves communication, sav- 
ing time and money." 

In Europe the profile of pub- 
lic voice messaging is increas- 
ing, largely because cellular 
phone operators provide voice 
mailboxes linked to users' 
mobile phones. The market for 
voice processing as a whole 
(including voice messaging) is 
growing at 35-40 per cent a 
year in Europe, according to 
Robin Scorlock, head of BIS 
Strategic Decision's messaging 

He says: “At this year's 
Voice '94 show much of the 
technology that had been 
promised was on display espe- 
cially in the are a of cain cen- 
tres and voice integration on 
the local-area network.” 

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Call centre systems are 
designed to capture the three 
out of every four calls that the 
voice messaging industry esti- 
mates fail to get through first 
time. The systems are designed 
to allocate calls to the next free 
person in a telesales environ- 
ment and to provide a com- 
puter screen full of informa- 
tion on any customer that has 
called before. They can also 
provide a list of calls which 
need to be made. 

In the area of voice integra- 
tion, GPT launched a product 
at Voice '94 which allows users 
on a PC network to get a list of 
all their fax, voice and elec- 
tronic mail messages. 

They can then use a mouse 
to click on the ones, they want 
to see or hear. Suppliers which 
have (or are developing) inte- 
grated products for the desktop 
include VMX, Octel Communi- 
cations, C3, Applied Technol- 
ogy, Dialogic, Active Voice. 
Radish Communications and 

However. Elaine Cascio, a 
consultant at Vanguard Com- 
munications, warns that no 
one really knows whether 
users want to be able to see all 
their different types of mes- 
sages at once. 

There are many different 

types of voice processing (of 
which voice mail is one). They 
go by a confusing array of 
names and there is some over- 
lap between them. Audiotex is 
one of the simplest categories 
and is used for 0898 recorded 
information, such as racing 

Another category is interac- 
tive voice response (TVR). This 
is the type of technology used 
in some home banking and 
home shopping systems. It 
might, for example, prompt the 
use to “press one to check your 
bank balance" or “press two to 
order a cheque book". 

These systems effectively 
link a voice interface to a com- 
puter database. They allow 
customers to input and 
retrieve information either by 
using a touch-tone phone or by 
using speech recognition tech- 

Interest in voice technology 
is growing as computers and 
telecommunications begin to 
converge. For example, PC 
software companies like Micro- 
soft and Novell are muscling in 
and trying to set competing 
standards for CTI (computer 
telephony integration). 

But national character plays 
a big part in the level of adop- 
tion. BIS says people in the 

. •• '&( 

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. . % 

Southampton University's voice mafl system, VoJcoCormect, keeps 
students In contact with friends and relatives 

Netherlands and Sweden are 
less keen to talk to machines 
than the ftn gHdh- 
Americans are probably the 
most comfortable with speak- 
ing to machines. In Japan it 
might be hard to find an execu- 
tive willing to leave messages 
on an answerphone for six 

Scurlock says: “In Japan the 
receptionist often takes the 
message verbally and then 
records it on a machine.” 

* Copies of VMECs voice mail 
security guide can be obtained 
from any VMEC member com- 
pany or from Vanguard Com- 
munications in the US. Tel: 301 


Reduced business travel is not the only benefit of video-conferencing 

Making savings all round 

After a series of false starts, 
video-conferencing is taking 
off. Tumbling prices and 
smaller systems - including 
the first desktop systems - 
mean that video-conferencing 
can now provide a real alterna- 
tive to business travel 

In 1884, a video-conferencing 
system would have cost 
£2501)00 according to Phil Sim- 
monds, marketing manager of 
GPT Communications Services. 
“Today, a professional quality 
system the size of a television 
set can be bought for around 10 
p» cent of that price,” says Mr 
Shnmonds. And it is possible 
to buy systems which are even 
smaller and cheaper. 

There are three main types 
of video-conferencing system: 
large systems designed to 
equip video-conferencing stu- 
dios for between £25,000 and 
£30,000; smaller roll-about 
(movable) systems for between 
£15,000 and £17,000, and desk- 
top systems. BT, for example, 
sells a desktop system the size 
of a portable television for 
£5 £99. 

A lower cost option than 
using a dedicated video-confer- 
encing unit is to add videocon- 
ferencing capabilities to a per- 
sonal computer. Judith 
JeffCoate of the research con- 
sultancy Ovum believes that 
between 1996 and the end or 
1998, revenues from PCs 
equipped for video-conferenc- 
ing will exceed those from con- 
ventional video-conferencing 


An increasing number of 
suppliers have developed or 
are selling systems of this kind 
including Canada-based North- 
ern Telecom (with the Visit 
system distributed by UK com- 
puter dealers P&P), US semi- 
conductor company Intel, 
AT&T GI5 (Global Information 
Solutions). BT, IBM. Apple. 
Picturetel, Olivetti and Griffin 
Sight & Sound. 

Some computers now come 
fully equipped for video-confer- 
encing, allowing users to trans- 
mit live video images of them- 
selves to other, 
similarly-equipped users, and 
to see on their PC the person 
they are talking to. For exam- 
ple, Sun Microsystems sells a 
Unix workstation which 
includes camera, real-time 
video capture and compression 
and a storage disk. 

But most users will have to 
buy a special kit if they want 
to carry out a videoconference 
in a window on their personal 

For example, Olivetti, IBM, 
BT and ICL sell kits which 
indude a small video camera 
which sits on top of the PC, a 
card which slots into the PC 
and software (some of the 

hardware in these kits was 
developed by BT). 

The kit makes it possible for 
users to transmit still or mov- 
ing video images, photographs 
or sound. In most cases users 
will also need an ISDN (digital) 
phone line to enable them to 
carry out a phone conversation 
and transmit data (such as 
video images) at the same 

Many PC-based products 
allow people engaged in a vid- 
eo-conference to point to or 
edit information they can both 
see on their screens. Intel says 
that with its system, users at 
far-flung sites can edit a report 
together, both looking at the 
same version on their screens. 

travel time per month by using 
video-conferencing for Europe- 
USA staff meetings and its 
chairman's speeches. 

• Cost savings. ICL, the UK 
computer company owned by 
Fujitsu of Japan, says it makes 
50 per cent savings on travel 
costs through using video-con- 
ferencing for board meetings 
and links with Japan. 

• Faster product develop- 
ment. When Ford of Europe 
introduced video-conferencing 
it helped to cut down product- 
development times. Staff at dif- 
ferent sites can hold a video- 
conference to sort out a prob- 
lem, rather than travelling for 
a day. 

• Greater team spirit. Ford 

Users of studio-based systems find that 
video-conferencing promotes 
regular, shorter meetings 

The systems Is modular so US 
users can either buy the Pro- 
Share shared editing software 
separately or the full kit 

New products are also com- 
ing to the market In late Octo- 
ber, BT plans to launch Pres- 
ence, which it describes as the 
UK's first self-contained desk- 
top ISDN videophone and the 
VC60Q0 roll-about videoconfer- 
encing system. 

A report from the Economist 
Intelligence Unit, International 
Business Travel: a changing 
profile, suggests that video- 
conferencing will gain popular- 
ity. “Video-conferencing is per- 
ceived to have several benefits 
and it is perhaps the ability to 
streamline travel costs that is 
considered to be the major 
one." says the report. 

Benefits can include: 

• Time savings. Citibank 
Europe saves 200 man hours of 

also believes that video-confer- 
encing helps to hold different 
groups together. 

• Shorter meetings. Users of 
studio-based systems such as 
pharmaceutical company 
Smi th Klinp Beecham, find that 
video-conferencing promotes 
regular, shorter meetings. This 
is because its video-conferenc- 
ing suites are booked in 
advance, end automatically, 
and are often charged out to 
the department using th*m 

• Better access to experts. UK 
high-street bank National 
Westminster has installed a 
number of AT&T video link ser- 
vices at 10 branches. This 
allows customers to speak 
directly from their local 
branch to NatWest's household 
insurance specialists located in 

But video-conferencing 
systems have their limitations. 

Mr Simmonds says: “They 
aren’t good for the initial meet- 
ing with someone - it's better 
to meet people first in the 
flesh." This is especially true 
of PC-based systems, which 
usually provide video images 
at 15 frames a second. At this 
speed, images will be jerky, so 
if business contacts make even 
small movements, it will look 
as if they are swaying around 

As well as keeping still, it is 
also important to try and 
establish eye contact by 
looking into the camera, 
whether in a one-to-one or a 
large videoconferencing meet- 
ing. In larger, “multipoint" vid- 
eoconferencing meetings, peo- 
ple should speak one at a time, 
because it is harder than in 
face-to-face meetings to listen 
to a babble of voices. 

Adrian Butcher, BTs general 
manager for videotelephony, 
says a number of factors must 
be considered when conducting 
a videoconference, but "multi- 
point tends to encourage the 
disciplines that ought to pre- 
vail In a business meeting. Peo- 
ple tend to think about what 
they are going to say before 
they say it, and there is usu- 
ally a chair man in charge”. 

He believes that, unlike 
many technologies, videocon- 
ferencing systems (especially 
the smaller ones) can some- 
times pay for themselves 
immediately through savings 
in travel costs. 

But he does not think that 
businesses should look at cost 
savings alone. “The real power 
of these systems comes from 
faster decision-making," he 
says. “Suddenly, dialogue can 
proceed at the speed of dia- 
logue, not at the speed of peo- 
ple's diaries.” 

Joia Shillingford 

AT&T’s ViaSum muM-mwSa vtdeo-confereiKdng System slows hags* sound and data to be used together 




OCTOBER 26 1994 






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The electronic marketplace is on its way, writes Joia ShiHingford 

traffic increases 

Brian Orating: ‘the most significant application of EDt worldwide ks to 
make reductions fci inventory' 

3M Visual Systems' new 6000 Series TFT projection panels project a high-resolution colour picture from a PC on to a wide screen via remote control 

Julie Harnett on the shortage of staff needed for training programmes 

Multimedia skills in demand 


The growth of paperless 
trading using electronic data 
interchange (EDI) and elec- 
tronic mall is having a pro. 
found effect on the way some 
businesses operate. 

EDI involves the exchange of 
structured business docu- 
ments, such as orders and 
invoices, directly between com- 
puters. It is used mainly for 
inter-company communica- 
tions, where cutting out paper 
can significantly speed up the 
processing and transmission of 

But “the most significant 
application of EDI worldwide is 
to make reductions in inven- 
tory," says Brian Bearing, a 
Europe-based vice-president at 
OS EDI supplier Sterling Soft- 

“For example," says Mr 
Bearing “clothes retailers are 
trying to Improve profitability 
by cutting down on inventory. 
Ideally, they only want to re- 
order the stuff that sells other- 
wise they have to make huge 
markdowns at the end of the 

‘But each time a garment is 
reordered that's an adminis- 
trative task. So unless the pro- 
cess is automated, it isn't prac- 
tical to keep really low levels 
of stock. One solution. Is to gen- 
erate an EDI order every time 
an item is scanned at the 
checkout tilL” 

In addition to Improving 
profitability, a low inventory 
policy means that no stock- 
room is required. Examples are 
S&K Menswear in the US, 
which orders goods in the min- 
imum quantity and than reor- 
ders what has just sold. And 
Victoria’s Secret, the US linge- 
rie company, which also 
requires no stockroom after 
implementing a low-inventory 

Mr Dealing believes that 
using EDI to improve asset 
management will contribute 
Ear more to a company’s profit- 
ability than simply using it to 
cut costs in the accounts 

For those who are planning 
to use EDI, there are a number 
of third-party value-added rut- 
work services (Vans) to choose 
from. In essence, these take 
computer-generated orders or - 
invoices and send them to trad- 
ing partners electronically, 

EDI service providers 
include General Electric Infor- 
mation Services (Gets), IBM, 
INS (now wholly-owned by 
Gels), BT, AT&T and, most 
recently. Sterling which has 
made its US EDr service avail- 
able in Europe as Commerce: 

Some EDI Vans also offer 
electronic mail and, con- 
versely, some email suppliers 

offer EDI-l£ke applications. Mr 
D earing says: "We’ve seen 
email used in EDI communities 
where a retailer or manufac- 
turer has a number of suppli- 
ers and wants to tell them it 
has a new purchasing man- 
ager, or that it’s going to shut 
down for a few days. 

“It’s clear that greater use of 
email for electronic trading is 
going to came, bat a lot of the 
things customers want to do 
really lend themselves more to 

electronic bulletin boards.” 
These allow information to be 
"posted” in an area of the EDI 
network where anyone can 
look at than. 

The research consultancy 
Ovum* predicts that European 
EDI network service revenue 
(including software and sup- 
port for customer-premises 
equipment) will grow at 25 per 
cent a year from Ecu260m 
($322m) in 1993 to Ecu588m in 

By then, it expects 90 per 
cent of European EDI traffic to 
be based on the international 
Edifact standard, as compared 
with less than 50 per cent last 

Ovum also predicts strong 

growth for electronic mail ser- 
vices, such as the Internet It 
forecasts that total European 
email revenues will grow at 53 
per cent a year from Ecu223m 
in 1933 to EcuL453m in 1997. 

A big part of this growth will 
come from new users si gning 
up to use the Internet system. 
Extensively used by the 
research and academic commu- 
nity on a not-for-profit basis, 
the Internet now has at least 
15m users around the world. 

according to Ovum’s estimate, 
and at most between 25m and 

The sheer size of its user 
base is attracting commercial 
interest in spite of the Inter- 
net's uncommercial image. 
Information provider Pipex 
points out that for only a few 
pounds, a company can put an 
article on the Internet system 
which can reach a potentially 
large audience. 

In addition to email, the 
Internet provides databases, 
news discussion groups (such 
as those on electronic bulletin 
boards), long-distance comput- 
ing and the ability to transfer 
data or software programs. 

Rose Lockwood of Ovum 

says: “Recent reports estimate 
that over half of Internet’s 
users are now commercial bod- 
ies, yet there are still many 
barriers to, and much debate 
concerning, the commercial 
use of the Internet” 

For example, the National 
Science Foundation Network 
Internet backbone (the 
NFSNet) deems for-profit activ- 
ities to he unacceptable. But 

commercial suppliers are form- 
ing groups which can intercon- 
nect without such restrictions. 

As a result an increasing 
number of fee-charging ser- 
vices are appearing. These 
include Clarinet - an elec- 
tronic publishing service, pro- 
viding news and information, 
plus live news from the UPI 
wire service. 

Many major o nlin e data- 
bases, such as Dialog and Leads 
can also be accessed via the 

The Internet is often men- 
tioned as an early example of 
the information highway. As 
conceived by US president Bill 
Clinton and vice-president A1 
Gore, information highways - 
national information networks 
- will carry Information, enter- 
tainment, interactive games, 
and services such as home 
banking and shopping into 
homes and businesses. 

The plan is that users will 
plug into these highways using 
mul timedia terminals (which 
combine television, images, 
sound and computing power) 
in the home or office. Alterna- 
tively, they win link up via 
“smart" boxes used with their 
television sets. 

But as well as representing a 
huge business opportunity for 
all Tnnnrtor of industries — such 
as entertainment, publishing, 
financial services, telecoms, 
computers and consumer elec- 
tronics - information high- 
ways also present a threat to 
established ways of offering 

For example, Mel Simon, 
IBM venture manager for the 
information super-highway, 
paints out that the presence of 
a watinnal information infra- 
structure would make it rela- 
tively cheap for new direct sup- 
pliers (such as the 
telephone-based bank First 
Direct and Directline insurers) 
to enter the market and com- 
pete for business. ! 

But until computer net- 
works, such as the Internet, 
become easier for ordinary 
mortals to use, both the 
threats and the commercial 
opportunities will be more 
imagined than real 
* Desktop messaging: strategies 
far the corporate market is 
available from Ovum. Tel: +44 

Within four months of 
implementing an interactive 
multimedia training project, 
the Deutsche Bundespost Post- 
dienst in Germany had saved 
over DM14. 2m in time and 
travel costs. 

By for the largest multime- 
dia installation in Europe, with 
more than 2,000 “Learning Sta- 
tions”. the system was cus- 
tom-built by VideoLogic using 
digital video technology to pro- 
vide a cost-effective solution 
for the training of a widely dis- 
persed workforce of more than 
360,000 people. The initial 
investment had paid for itself 
after potting just 100,000 staff 
through the first two learning 

In the tr aining environment, 
the integration of personal 
computers with digital video, 
audio and still images makes 
learning new skills an exciting 
and positive experience. 

Studies show that pupils 
learn new skills foster, and 
information retortion rates are 
higher than they were with 
traditional aids such as flip- 
charts and marker pens. 

As a result the future of mul- 
timedia, particularly as a train- 
ing aid, is assured. According 
to Alan Binnle. recruitment 
director, of consultants Recruit 
Media, the multimedia markets 
is expected to top £7bn world- 
wide this year. 

He says: “Sales of multime- 
dia PCs with CD-Rom drives 
grew by over 160 per cent last 
year and, if such drives were 
fitted to just a third of all PCs 
expected to be sold in the UK 
in 1995, the potential market 
would increase by 500 per cent 
to something like 1.5m.” How- 
ever, he warns that as the rush 
to supply the market takes off, 
so too will the demand for 
quality staff. 

“Multimedia mixes sound, 
visual images and movement; 
and the creation of a single 
product Involves a whole range 
of new skills from computer 
programming to graphic 
design. Lack of those skills 
could hold the UK back.” 

That view is held by the 
West London Training & 
Enterprise Council which con- 
ducted a survey last year and 
found in the IT field alone a 
national backlog of 50-i00m 
man-days of computer skills 
training. Moreover, it esti- 
mated that catching up though 
conventional methods would 
cost £l0bn-20bn. New thinking 
is called for, the Tec's report 

A growing number or organi- 
sations are keen to address the 
problem using new technology. 
Recruit Media says that 60 per 

cent of companies have said 
that they intend to employ 
multimedia staff within the 
next 12 months. 

Unfortunately, 40 per cent of 
those already travelling the 
multimedia route are experien- 
cing difficulties in finding the 
right staff. 

Mr Ttinnie says: “We are get- 
ting companies like BP, the 
Automobile Association, BBC 
Enterprises and ICL coming to 
us for trained, flexible and cre- 
ative staff and it is getting 
increasingly difficult to find 


“Now that multimedia has 
progressed from a cottage 
industry to one of global signif- 
icance, we must address that 

skill shortage.” 

Technology itself can help. 
For example, rather than rely 
on technical staff and outside 
developers to create interactive 
multimedia training pro- 
grammes, British Airways is 
planning to use AimTech’s 
CBT Express, said to be the 
first computer-based training 
authoring software that makes 
training course development 
fast, simple and accessible to 
non-technlcal personnel 

No scripting, flow charting 
or programming is required. 
The syston uses pre-buflt tem- 
plates and colour backgrounds 
to simplify and accelerate the 
applications development pro- 
cess. If the current trials are 
successful, BA’s training staff 
will be able to produce multi- 
media course material to sup- 
plement the programmes being 

developed by IT staff who use 
AimTech'3 IconAuthor, a more 
complex authoring tool that 
has already proved its worth in 
developing interactive training 
courses for cabin crew. 

Video has long been used in 
the training environment. But 
it can he time-consuming wind- 
ing tape backwards and for- 
wards trying to find a particu- 
larly section. Interactive video 
is one answer but the need to 
implement sophisticated com- 
puter controls has, until now, 
made it an unrealistic proposi- 
tion for the mass market 

An interesting development 
from Japanese electronics 
giant Pioneer is an interactive 
LaserDisc combined with bar 

code techniques. Each laser 
disc can store up to 36 minutes 
of video or up to 54,000 still 
frames and photos, or a combi- 
nation. with each item or sec- 
tion given a unique barcode for 
fast access purposes. 

By running the barcode pen 
over identical supermarket- 
style barcodes in the reference 
book, the relevant section of 
the programme will appear 
instantly on the TV screen, 
complete with relevant photo- 
graphs, slides, diagrams and 

A growing trend among 
trainers and lecturers is the 
use of a PC to create their own 
training presentations. The 
addition of an LCD projection 
panel provides the ultimate 
flexibility, enabling computer 
presentations to be prepared in 
advance then altered quickly 
and easily up the last minute; 
an impossible task If slides or 
OHPs have to be produced. 

Distance learning, whereby 
individuals can learn new 
skills at any time at any loca- 
tion is developing. 

The one problem with it is 
the difficulty of interaction 
between trainee and tutor. 
QData believes its development 
of the Marc PC-based software 
program could be the answer. 
It enables a tutor to deliver 
training materials and exer- 
cises to a group of dispersed 
trainees who can then partici- 
pate in one-to-one or group 
training sessions. 

The tutor can take control of 
all screens on the network, or 
can ask remote trainees to take 
control of the host computer 
and perform certain tasks 
while the rest of the trainees 
watch. Messages can be sent to 
all trainees simultaneously and 
work completed can be printed 
out locally or remotely. 

A big part of the growth will come 
from new users signing up to use 
the Internet system 

A growing number of organisations are 
keen to address the problem 
using new technology 

Monica Horten finds fierce competition in electronic information 

Ease and speed top the list 

Ifs not what you’ve got. It’s 
how you access it. In the fast 
expanding world of electronic 
Information services, that is 
becoming the rule which dif- 
ferentiates service offerings. 

Business information has 
been available on-line for 
many years from service pro- 
viders such as Official Airline 
Guide, Infocheck, Kompass 
Online, various newswires. 
and the Financial Times's Pro- 
file news and reports database 
service. Most are supplied 
through third-party network 
providers such as CompuServe, 
as well as by direct connec- 
tion. But none of the services 
have yet achieved the wide- 
spread use that they deserve. 

One reason Is that they have 

proved difficult to use, often 
providing users with very lit- 
tle on-screen assistance. “Most 
on-line databases are not par- 
ticularly friendly, and by 
design are geared towards 
Information services profes- 
sionals,” said MHre Sullivan, 
of Renters business informa- 
tion products group. 

Another issue is charging. 
Services traditionally charge 
users by the minute, making 
searches expensive. And 
researchers may have to 
access more than one database 
to conduct a comprehensive 
search - for example, to find 
competitive product informa- 
tion they would check news 
archives, companies listings 
and research reports. 

Renters Business Briefing, a 
new Renters service launched 
last year, has improved tbe 
user interface with new Win- 
dows-based software. It lets 
people search its 600 sources 
information by clicking 
through pull-down menus of 
subject codes. It also has a 
simplified charging structure 
- a monthly subscription of 
495, for which users get 20 
hours free search time. 

A Windows interface is 
becoming de rigeur for all new 
information services. Accord- 
ing to Mr Sullivan, users today 
tend to be business executives, 
who need to search data for 
themselves. The executives 
demand that a system is easy 
to use. In the past, the typical 
user was a librarian - an 
Information professional - 
who did the search at the 
request of an executive. 

Users also demand test data 
retrieval. Business Briefing 
d a has to pull up data In less 
that three seconds^ So does a 
rival service called Tel-Me 
from Birkenhead-based 

start-up company Phone-Link. 

Td-Me’s concept is to take a 
number of commonly used 
databases and develop a com- 
mon interface to make search- 
ing simpler. The 10 services 
offered include the Automobile 
Association and BT databases, 
as well as UK railway time- 
tables, companies database 
Infocheck, and news wires. 

The most immediate rival 
to CompuServe is the 
Internet, which 
claims to have 30m 
users worldwide 

Tel-Me charges only 300 
annual subscription, but adds 
a fixed charge per data 
retrieved: from 12p for a 
phone number, np to 24p for a 
company report 
CompuServe, the on-line ser- 
vice based in Columbus, Ohio, 
net only has a Windows inter- 
fere but uses a special inter- 
face to third-party databases 
which makes them easier to 

use than the original service 
provided direct from the infor- 
mation provider. And it lets 
users save information to their 
hard disk, so they can read it 
off-line, cutting on-line costs. 

CompuServe’s philosophy is 
to offer as much variety of 
information as possible. It has 
more than 2,000 databases, 
including the Associated 
Press, Deutsche Presse Agen- 
tur and Press Association 
newswires and business ser- 
vices such as Dun and Brad- 
street, Kompass Online. Extel 
Financial. Market reports from 
Mbxtel and US and UK trade 
marks are also on the system. 

Users have to pay each time 
they access these services - 
except for the newswires 
which are provided free with 
the 37.95 monthly subscrip- 

The advantage is that there 
Is no need to pay an individual 
subscription to each database. 
So a user can do a credit 
check, look np a share price, 
get a company report and so 
on, with relative ease. 

CompuServe has a great 
appeal for smaller businesses, 
which cannot afford subscrip- 
tions to so many services at 
once. It has made a concerted 
drive into European markets 
in the past two years and has 
made the greatest inroads in 
the UK and Germany, where it 
has 65,000 subscribers in each 

"There are up-market bulle- 
tin hoard services and there 
are high cost business ser- 
vices, which sell direct. The 
wedge Is In the middle where 
people want a broad service,” 
said Nell Laver, of Compu- 
Serve’s UK office. 

The most immediate rival to 
CompuServe Is the Internet, 
which claims to have 30m 
users worldwide. However, the 
Internet began as a network 
for academics and boffins, and 
this remains its prime func- 

According to UK company 
Pipex, which supplies Intranet 
connections, the leading busi- 
ness Information suppliers 
have yet to come on-line. 

Some, such as Dow Jones and 
Dun and Bradstreet are in the 
process of connecting. 

Industry observers point out 
that searching the Internet 
can be difficult. It has no cen- 
tral organisational focus, 
which means that technical 
help may be minimal, depend- 
ing on the supplier offering 
the connection. It may also be 
complicated to hook up to 
some of the information sup- 

Commercial Information 
suppliers will not offer their 
services free of charge - as is 
the academic information - 
and users may have to contact 

The client list for the 
London-based Maid 
system includes 93 
banks and a third of the 
UK’s largest companies 

the information supplier 
directly to obtain an account. 
This is not necessary on Com- 

Neither is It necessary on 
Maid, a London-based com- 
pany which rininB to offer a 
much more Intuitive means of 
searching multiple databases. 
With Maid, one ean search all 
the databases on the system - 
including news wires, com- 

pany checks, stock broker 
reports and research material 
- just by entering a single 
query. Thus, if one enters 
“telecommunications in Thai- 
land”, it will provide news cut- 
tings, broker, company and 
analyst reports that ore rele- 

Maid has also invested in a 
novel indexing system. Profes- 
sional indexers provide links 
between information which is 
related even though the actual 
word being searched on is not 
included. For example, if 
asked to search on “tooth- 
paste” it would pick up an 
article on oral hygiene that 
did not mention the word 
“toothpaste’*. But clearly, the 
article would be relevant for 
someone Interested In the sub- 

According to founder Dan 
Wagner, customers are switch- 
ing from other services to 
Maid. So far, the company has 
only targeted large financial 
institutions and major compa- 

The client list already 
includes 93 banks, and one 
third of the UK's largest com- 
panies. However, it will be 
made available for smaller 
businesses next year, when a 
Windows version of the inter- 
face software becomes avail- 


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Increasing use of technology has presented problems to developers, says. David Lawson 

Tenants look for office flexibility 

D evelopers came late to the world of 
high technology. Despite increas- 
ingly frantic urgings from tenants 
and architects, they have only recently 
started producing buildings which can 
cope with the computer age. 

Now. however, they face a barrage of 
complaints that the pendulum has swung 
too far. Many modem office blocks are too 
sophisticated, say the engineers that face 
the task of r unning them. They also bum 
a large hole in tenants' pockets. 

Ironically, a groundswell of disdain 
remains about the poor standards of most 
buildings to cope with office technology. 
Many high-tech companies complain that 
they still find it hard to track down suit- 
able premises. Even non-technical ones 
groan at the difficulties of fairly simple 
internal reorganisation of desks and equip- 

A computer on every desk was consid- 
ered a Star Wars dream until the mid-80s. 
But the “Big Bang” financial revolution 
changed all that Large groups went wild 
in the scramble for a share of deregulated 
markets. Everyone expected to to win a 
big slice, which meant grabbing more 
office space. 

This coincided with a switch to comput- 
er-based dealing in securities, currencies 
and a host of other markets. Big dealing 
floors became the norm in new City 
blocks. But even the most mundane office 
was filling up with new technology as 

equipment prices fell. By file end of the 
decade. Star Wars was no longer a dream. 

This sea-change in working methods 
transformed designs of certain buildings. 
It was well known that electronics pro- 
duce heat - but hate high temperatures. 
Computer rooms had been sealed and air- 
conditioned for years. Now that became 
the norm for a good deal of general office 
space, fitted with false ceilings for ducting, 
sealed windows to keep in expensively- 
cooled air and huge plant rooms on the 

Electronics also need miles of cables, 
and raised floors became the rage. At one 
time designers were proposing enough 
space for a service engineer to walk 
through without disturbing the drones 

But all this costs money. Central Lon- 
don rents doubled during the boom - 
partly to pay for the new services. Run- 
ning costs also soared. Then came the 
slump, and profit-strapped tenants began 
to worry about these high occupation 

By then, however, developers had got 
into their stride and were offering more 
and more sophisticated buildings. Air-con- 
ditioning became the norm, even in build- 
ings well outside the city centres, where it 
was justifiable to seal buildings against 
pollution and noise. 

Engineers and surveyors also started to 
question whether all this expensive 
sophistication was really necessary. Peter 
Hill of the B uilding Research Establish- 
ment Energy Conservation Support Unit 
(Brecsu) examined how office equipment 
was used in 74 British companies. He 
found that manufocturers vastly over-esti- 
mated the power demands - and therefore 
heat output. Staff also tended to use equip- 
ment such as PCs In very different ways, 
so power consumption ranged widely from 
50 to 250 watts per person. 

Developers ensure they can offer specu- 
lative buildings to the widest group of 
potential tenants, so they made sure 
power could be provided at the top of this 
range. Air-conditioning designed to cope 
with this higher figure was, therefore, con- 

sistently running below capacity for the 
average tenant Users found themselves 
paying too much for the original system 
then extra for running it ineffic iently. 

Efforts are now being made to adjust 
buildings closer to tenant needs by bring- 
ing occupiers into the planning process. 
The British Council for Offices, a group or 
agents and developers, has also produced 
guidance notes that will avoid pitfalls. 

The potential for savings shows up in a 
scheme being bandied by cost consultants 
AYH Partnership, which reduced the 
power loading for one proposed London 
building from 25 to 15 Watts per sq metre. 
That will cut future maintenance and run- 
ning costs by 80,000 a year. 

Over-specified buildings will be more 
appreciated as power consumption rises to 
around 300 watts/person by the end of the 
decade. But this could be a brief respite, as 
the move to ‘'green" PCs will cut that back 
to 2QGW in the following 10 years, accord- 
ing to Brecsu. 

Many high-tech businesses, however, are 
more concerned that buildings fall below 

the specifications they need. Quality Soft- 
ware Products, the recently-floated pub- 
lisher of accountancy packages, was dis- 
appointed to be forced out of its 
Leatherhead offices. The company had 
spent a great deal of time and money alter- 
ing the building to cope with computer 
equipment, but needed space to grow. 

F inding a suitable replacement was 
not easy, says QSP, although it even- 
tually tracked one down one at 
Leatberhead's Regent Park which had 
been designed well enough to take the 
endless cabling, specialised lighting, secu- 
rity systems and the Lan and Wan tech- 
nology required. 

This was at least an advance on the 
1980s when the task proved impossible in 
Gateshead, the company’s birthplace. QSP 
had to build its own headquarters because 
developers had nothing suitable to offer. 
Things have not improved much today, as 
most of the suitable buildings are concen- 
trated In the south-east 
One of the main problems is finding a 

building flexible enough to take the con- 
stant changes demanded by modern bust 
nesses, says Richard Hnnnam of QSP. 
"You literally need to bo able to shift walls 
over a weekend as teams are moved 
around." he says. 

Cabling Is also a big problem for the 
modem office. Wltliin the first year of 
occupation the average business moves 
half the work positions, according to Step, 
hen Hill of Oscar Faber Information and 
Communications. That continues with an 
average “churn" of 30 por cent a year. 

More than haff these moves require 
recabling. costing up to 400 per staff mem- 
ber. Designers are now trying to solve this 
problem with the introduction of struc- 
tured wiring schemes under which a wide 
variety of power, data and other cabling 
can be merged. These schemes pay for 
themselves within two or three years by 
cutting file cost of churns to 20 per person, 
says Mr HllL 

Companies will need to take a much 
closer look in future at whether this kind 
of scientific approach to fittings has gone 
into offices they are seeking. High specifi- 
cations may appear a godsend For those 
desperate to find buildings geared to high 
technology, but they must be appropriate 
to future needs. 

The main criterion should be flexibility 
to change - either up or down the technol- 
ogy ladder. Whether developers can come £, 
up with the goods is another matter. 

Monica Horten l ooks at the health risks in using office equipment 

are under scrutiny 

Wearing a headset with a telephone microphone leaves the user with both hands free 


The mouse, a harmless looking device 
used by millio ns of people to control their 
computer software, is the latest piece of 
electronic equipment to come under scru- 
tiny for health and safety reasons. 

It is the subject an international stan- 
dard covering health and safety for high- 
tech offices being drawn up by national 
standards bodies worldwide, and it will 
correlate with EU requirements. 

Recent studies have shown that using a 
mouse can cause injuries, says Bjorn 
Malm berg, technical coordinator at ICL 
Personal Systems. Most people place the 
mouse to one side of the computer, where 
they have to extend their arm to use it 
The slight clicking action works muscles 
further up the am, even though most 
people are not aware of it The further one 
has to stretch to hold the moose, the more 
strain is put on those muscles. 

“Some applications require you to use 
the mouse a lot, and you can get inflamed 
muscles” said Mr Malmberg. He recom- 
mends placing the mouse as close in to the 
shoulder as possible to avoid the condi- 
tion, which is known as tennis elbow. 

Another condition caused by the use of a 
mouse is carpal tunnel syndrome. The 
symptoms are tingling feelings and pain in 
the thumb, index and middle fingers and a 
weakening of the thumb. Carpal tunnel 
syndrome can happen to mouse users if 

they rest their wrist on the desk while 
holding the mouse for extended periods. 
This position pushes the wrist joint back 
at an angle, causing pressure on the 
nerves which transmit signals between the 
hand and the brain. 

Some mouse products have been 
designed to allow the hand to rest in a 
more natural position. The Dexxa mouse 
from Logitec, for example, is designed to 
raise the wrist position, ft costs about £15. 
The Microsoft Ergonomic mouse costs £39. 
Mouse mats with a raised surface at one 
end are also available, for about £10. 

Extended use of computer 
keyboards can cause a 
variety of injuries 

Similarly, new-style computer key- 
boards. designed for comfort, are coming 
on to the market. Injuries caused by 
extended use of computer keyboards 
include carpal tunnel syndrome and repet- 
itive strain injuries. Mostly they occur 
where the user performs repetitive tasks 
in a position which cramp the hands, 
wrists or shoulders. This may be due to 
poorly designed equipment or to poor pos- 
ture, or both. 

Software company Microsoft has just 

launched its Natural Keyboard. Shaped 
like a wave with the two halves of the 
Querty keys sloping away from one 
another at a 40 degree angle, it also has a 
sloping piece of plain plastic along the 
front, intended as a palm rest and a pop-up 
stand underneath to act as a wrist-rest 

Initially, the keyboard feels strange. But 
Microsoft claims that the slope puts the 
shoulders in a more relaxed position does 
than the conventional keyboard. The 
shoulders are opened out instead of being 
hunched up. The pop-up wrist-rest - 
Microsoft calls it a wrist leveller - forces 
the wrist in a slightly downwards-sloping 
position for those who like to rest their 
wrists while typing. 

A rival product from US manufacturer 
Key Tronic uses a system of merhatiinai 
levers underneath the individual keys to 
create a softer landing for the fingers. 
Hard contact switches used to work the 
keys create a mechanical resistance to the 
finger on conventional keyboards, which 
also make the finger press directly down 
on the key - an unnatural movement 

The Key Tronic Pro Touch keyboard 
allows the fingers to arch over the key- 
board in a naturally comfortable position. 

ICL's ergonomically designed keyboard 
helps minimise the strain on muscles in 
the hands and forearms with a curved, 
sloping surface. It also Incorporates an 

Microsoft's claims that the sloping Querty keys 
of its “Natural Keyboard* puts ttie shoulders 
into a more relaxed position than does the 
conventional keyboard 

anti-static device in the space bar - com- 
puters generate a lot of static, which 
attracts dust and can result in headaches 
and tiredness. 

People who type on the keyboard while 
tailring on the telephone are running an 
additional risk. This issue has received 
little attention so Ear, but it is known that 
holding the phone between the head and 
neck affects the balance of the vertebrae 
in the neck, causing a condition called 
Torticollis. Wearing a headset with a tele- 

phone microphone, could be the solution 
because it lets the user have both hands 

According to Stephen Murphy, of head- 
set manufacturer Plantronics. headsets are 
governed by strict regulations on sound 
quality- But headsets can be expensive, 
with starting prices at £150 from either 
Plantronics or rival manufacturer Racal 

However, all manufacturers point out 
that improved equipment alone will not 
prevent any of the debilitating medical 

“Our keyboard does not prevent repeti- 
tive strain injury. Just as you don’t lose 
weight by drinking diet Coke," said Rich- 
ard Teversham, hardware product man- 
ager at Microsoft. Mr Teversham believes 
that telling people how to organise the 
overall work environment, will help them 
to help themselves. 

For example, a desktop computer should 
be placed at an appropriate height for the 
user. A footrest - costing between £15 and 
£40 - reduces the strain on legs and feet. 

A chair with built-in lumbar support - 
costing between £100 and £150 - supports 
the back. Lighting should not cause glare 
or reflections on the screen. And users 
need to be educated to take breaks from 
keyboard or mouse work and to maintain 
a good posture. 

Alan Cuthbertson, an independent con- 
sultant, pointed out that all employers In 
the European Union have a legal responsi- 
bility to educate their employees about 
high-tech health and safety. 

This follows the European directive 90/ ; 
370 which was passed hi 1992. Member 
states were required to introduce legisla- 
tion by January 1993, and organisations 
have been given until 1996 to bring their 
offices in line. 

Keep your head organized. 

20,000 products for office efficiency worldwide. 

EsieUe creates ana distributes products Mr olfice efficiency and creativity iDymq. Pendatlev. Bem&w. 
letrjsetl. We have 12.WQ employees m 55 countries. Our tunmver last year was 050 million Pounds. 

; j-* 3 --V-, ’ ea 

-» tai"' 'isoii i.—~ 



Western groups 
see opportunities 
in Russia: Page 2 

Wednesday October 26 1994 

Car makers express 
optimism about the 
metal’s future: Page 3 

Prices bounce back 
after global deal 

Kenneth Gooding describes how the industry took 
steps to overcome the problems caused by the 
huge increase in aluminium exports from Russia 

Road signs are disappearing 
again. Thieves know that the 
signs are probably made of alu- 
minium, one of the few widely- 
used materials worth stealing. 
There is hardly a better Indica- 
tor that aluminium prices are 
going up and the industry's 
state of health Is improving 
than this disreputable practice. 

If prices go on rising as they 
have in the past few months, it 
won’t be long before the 
thieves become more daring; in 
the 1988 price boom one night 
in Hull, in the north of 
England, an entire canal foot- 
bridge disappeared. 

The rise in aluminium prices 
- by more than 50 per cent 
since last November - was 
prompted by production cuts, 
rising demand and investment 
fund interest 

Less than a year ago, prices 
were at an all-time low in real 
terms, and the industry was 
suffering. Producers worldwide 
were experiencing heavy finan- 
cial losses. More than half the 
west's al uminium smelters 
were not even covering their 
day-to-day operating costs. 

“It seemed that, if the end of 
the world wasn’t going to hap- 
pen tomorrow, it would cer- 
tainly come next week,” said 
Mr Lloyd O’Carroll, economist 
at Reynolds Metals, the world's 
third largest aluminium group. 

The industry's woes were not 
caused by the global recession. 
Demand for al uminium contin- 
ued to reach record levels, as it 
has every year since 1883. 

In any case, the industry had 
prepared itself to cope with the 
inevitable ups and downs that 
a cyclical commodity has to 
expect. What took it - and 
everybody else - by surprise 
was a massive rise in alumin- 
ium exports from Russia, fol- 
lowing the collapse of the for- 

mer Soviet Union in 1991. Rus- 
sian aluminium exports to the 
west tripled in 1991 to lm 
tonnes, and rose to an esti- 
mated 2m tonnes in both 1992 
and 1993. This was equivalent 
to about 13 per cent being 
added to western world supply 
at incredible speed - usually 
the industry gets a three-year 
warning of new capacity, 
because it takes that long for a 
new smelter to be built and 
started up. 

In January 1988. before the 
Russian aluminium invasion, 
stocks In London Metal 
Exchange warehouses totalled 
only 138.000 tonnes, and the 

LUE glfiminium price WHS $1 a 

lb ($2204 a tonne). Last Novem- 
ber, as LME stocks climbed 
towards a record vsm tomw, 
the price had dropped to 47 
cents ($1,036 a tonne). Yet in 
recent weeks it has been above 
77 cents a lb ($1,700 a tonne). 

The industry itself helped to 
create this remarkable recov- 
ery. Since last November, it 
has announced plans to cut 
L25m tonnes of capacity, either 
permanently or temporarily - 
900900 tonnes of this in the 

These cuts were prompted by 
an unprecedented trade agree- 
ment between the European 
Union and five of the largest 
aluminium producing coun- 
tries - Australia, Canada, Nor- 
way, Russia and the US. 

A memorandum of under- 
standing, signed in Brussels in 
February, identified a global 
oversupply of between l.5m 
and 2m tonnes a year, and 
suggested cuts of that size 
should he matte for between 18 
months and two years, to 
restore the balance of supply 
and demand. Russia agreed 
that if cuts were made in the 
west, it would cut output, by 

500,000 tonnes a year. 

Although Russia and west- 
ern producers are unlikely to 
deliver all the cuts that were 
hoped for, the deal laid the 
groundwork for a recovery in 
the market 

This attracted help from an 
unexpected quarter - the 
investment funds which were 
casting round for something 
new to invest in at a time of 
felling bond prices and weak 
stock markets. They derided to 
put some of their ranh into 
base-metals markets. 

“The funds’ intervention was 
unprecedented, incredible in 
its size and volume. It was 
beautifully timed and their 
analysis that the aluminium 
market was due for a swift 
recovery was spot on,” says Mr 
Roger Scott-Taggart, director 
of research at Alcan, the 
world’s second-largest alumin- 
ium group. “People in the 
industry, peering over the rim 
of the trenches, didn't believe 
there would he a serious recov- 
ery thift year. But the funds 
created that recovery on the 
back of a much better funda- 
mental market balance.** 

The market's underlying 
strength was clear for anyone 
to see. Annual growth in 
demand did not go Into 
reverse, it merely slowed from 
3 per cent to L5 per cent 

Partly this was because alu- 
minium has a wide variety of 
uses. P ackag in g is one of its 
best markets - the metal is 
easy to sterilise fin- food and 
medical applications; it is an 
excellent barrier against liq- 
uids, vapours and light it is 
non-toxic and imparts no taste 
or odour. There has also been 
good growth in the use of alu- 
minium in electrical wiring, 
construction and in t he trans- 
port sector (aeroplanes, trains 


LME; stocks bald by fim LME warcfcovns throughout the world 

BPAfc total Blocks of both Ingot end sontMobricaM 
products held by mow of tha worm's 
dunMuni producers and reported ____ 

by tta intematkmi Pnrnery ‘ \ 

Alumnura InsStuto " 


7i O' • .vn ji 

rf. ■vV- tT?' 


' p< rf :rf eta 


1990 - I 1991 s . i 1992 t 

1993 . 1 . 1994 


(1993 total: 2du8 mBflon tonnes) 
Tr ansp ortation 2S% 




(1893 fjQliroa, trMo n tamed) 

and automobiles-) 

Global growth in demand for 
aluminium thio year hag set a 
cracking pace, led by the US 
where shipments of primary 
metal rose by a remarkable II 
per cent in the first half. Reyn- 
olds’ economist, Mr O’Carroll, 
suggests western world con- 
sumption will probably rise by 
7 per cent this year to 16.7m 
tonnes. He adds: “We are prob- 
ably at the begining of a three- 
to five-year up-cycle for alu- 
minium.” He sees global 
annual demand rising at 
between 3 and 5 per cent 

This growth will come from 
beverage cans and cars in par- 

Nearly every beer and fizzy 
drink can in the US is made 
from aluminium, where once 

they were tin plated-steel, so 
any growth there win have to 
come from winning business 
away from glass and plastic 
containers. However, other 
parts of the world offer tremen- 
dous opportunities for the alu- 
minium wm 

Mr Richard Holder, Reynolds 
Metals’ chairman, is predicting 
that the global aluminium ran 
market will grow by 65 per 
cent by the year 2000. 

As if that were not enough, 
aluminium has another “ava- 
lanche" market developing 
after many years of careful 
preparation - the use of more 
aluminium in cars. The 
amount of aluminium, in the 
average car has doubled from 
32kgs (70 lbs) in the late 1970s 
to GS k gs (150 lbs), and even the 

most conservative industry 
forecasts see it doubling again 
by 2010. 

In the US, this trend is being 
driven by ever-tightening fuel 
economy targets set by the 
government. Aluminium’s 
light weight enables car mak- 
ers to meet these targets with- 
out reducing the size of 
vehicles. Consequently, the US 
Al umini um Association is pre- 
dicting that aluminium in the 
average American car will rise 
from 2101bs at present to 
350 lbs by 2000. 

Reynolds’ Mr Holder sug- 
gests that next year shipments 
of aluminium in the US to the 
transport industry will reach 
5.l6bn Ihs (2.4m tonnes), and 
for the first time will top those 
to the packaging industry - 

forecast to be 5.04bn lbs (223m 

Some analysts suggest that 
there might even be a shortage 
of primary smelting capacity in 
the late 1990s, because nearly 
every planned smelter project 
was shrived during the reces- 
sion. Mr O'Carroll at Reynolds 
says it would not surprise him 
if there were one or two years 
of too little capacity. But alu- 
minium prices would not stay 
at extraordinarily high levels 
for very long. Most commenta- 
tors say that prices of between 
75 and 65 cents a lb ($1,653 and 
$1,873 a tonne) would be 
enough to encourage banks to 
put up some of the US$lbn a 
time needed for new alumin- 
ium smelters. 

Mr Paul O’Neill, chairman of 

the Aluminium Company of 
America (Alcoa), dismisses the 
idea that shortages of alumin- 
ium and exceptionally high 
prices will appear. However, he 
says that by late in 1995 it will 
be necessary to restart all the 
smelting capacity recently shut 

Alcoa drew up forecasts for 
13 big al nminiiiin -finns uming 
countries - by no means a 
world-embracing list - and this 
showed potential demand for 
another R9bn lbs (3-8m tonnes) 
of aluminium by 2004, equiva- 
lent to 25 per cent of last year's 
primary aluminium. "And," 
insists Mr O’Neill, “that does 
not take into account the 
potentially large increase of 
aluminium usage in automo- 



There's new been a bodyin-whH* like this. It's the 
aUohimlnium body structure for a family saloon, buih by 
ford in the US. In a technology partnership with Alcan. This 
aluminium-intensive vahide isn't a onooff concept car or a 
low-volume status symbol & demonstrates the technology 
needed far a highvohjme production breakthrough. 

A fleet of these exciting vehicles is already on 
the road, proving aluminium's competitive edge from 

Alaska to Arizona, Germany to Japan, It's a significant 
milestone towards Fulfilling Alcan's unwavering vision of 
how aluminium con revolutionise the mass-produced car. 
And it clearly indicates our long-term commitment to 
the cor industry. 

The values d aluminium are increasingly appreciated 
by automotive manufacturers: light, strong, durable, 
recyclable. After investing some 10 years and millions 

of pounds in R & D programmes, working side-by-side with 
automotive engineers, we have developed exclusive new 
technologies in spot welding and adhesive bonding: 
techniques which now make aluminium structures possible 
in /nass-produoed cars, and are essentially compatible 
with existing hlghvolume production processes. 

The results? A body shell that is 47% 
lighter. A sflffer body structure, giving better 

handling, braking and performance. A safer, quieter car. 
Improved corrosion resistance. Better fuel consumption, 
with fewer exhaust emissions. 

Alcan has always been an international supplier of 
aluminium to this growing market Now we've helped 
I engineer a major technological breakthrough. 
Illl In more ways than one, we're helping to 



tighten the load on the road. 

British Alcan Aluminium pfe, Chaffont Park, Gerrards Cross. Buckinghamshire, S19 OQB, England. 




W hen the mayor of Tur- 
sunzade fired several 
pistol shots at the gem 
eral manager of Tajikistan’s 
aluminium smelter, the news 
ricocheted around the global 
industry. For the Tursunzade 
smelter is one of the world's 
biggest, and its output was 
already falling because of civil 
warfare and shortages of raw 
materials and electricity. 

For Mr Mikhail Sinani, the 
man sent from Russia with a 
team of technicians to help the 
Tajiks keep this vital source of 
foreign earnings up and run- 
ning, the murder attempt was 
the last straw. 

Even though the smelter is 
now being protected by Russian 
paratroopers, Mr Sinani decided 
not to return to Tajikstan when 
his holiday in Russia ended 

Tursunzade ‘s mayor, Mr Ibod- 
ullah Boymatov, had asked for 
a large consignment of alumin- 
ium for delivery to a foreign 
trader, but did not have proper 
documentation. When Mr Sin- 
ani refused to provide the 
metal, the mayor pulled out his 
pistol. Some local reports sug- 
gest that Mr Sinani returned bis 
fire. Fortunately, neither man 
was hurt but the damage to the 
future of the smelter - the larg- 
est single enterprise In the 
southernmost former Soviet 
republic - is incalculable. 

Without Russian help the 
smelter's output, already down 
to only 252,000 tonnes in 1333 
compared with, its annual 
capacity of 500,000 tonnes, is 
expected to fail steeply ~ some 
informed estimates suggest to 

Western groups see opportunities in Russia, writes Kenneth Gooding 

Statistics gap delays plans 

only 100,000 tonnes. 

Whether the former Soviet 
Union industry will ever supply 
more than “informed estimates" 
remains to be seen. Soviet alu- 
minium production statistics 
were a state secret for so long 
that even a reformed Russia 
seems reluctant to give them. 

“Now that Russia is being 
absorbed into the global alu- 
minium industry, we are des- 
perately trying to get some sta- 
tistics, some facts, that will let 
us get on with some proper 
planning," one senior western 
executive complained recently. 

Russia has agreed to supply 
production and export statistics 
to the International Primary 
Aluminium Institute, the Lon- 
don-based organisation which 
collects data for the western 
producers. However, the Insti- 
tute is still waiting for the 
go-ahead by for a fact-finding 
visit to the Russian smelters to 
collect necessary background 

Western executives complain 
that, since the Russian smelters 
were privatised, the situation 
has become even more chaotic. 
The central authorities have no 
control - and no statistics - 
while anyone wanting to do 
deals with the smelters has no 
dear idea who to talk to. 

The chaos is amply illustrated 
by the present situation sur- 

rounding Krasnoyarsk. Russia's 
second-largest smelter. Pech- 
iney, Europe’s biggest alumin- 
ium group, announced in July 
that it had won Russian govern- 
ment support for a scheme to 
modernise gradually the 
Siberian aluminium smelters - 
Krasnoyarsk, Bratsk and Novo- 
kuznetsk - which between 
them account lor about half of 
Russia's al uminium production 
capacity, but are among the 
world’s heaviest polluters. 

Mr Bernard Legrand. bead of 
Pechiney’s al uminium activi- 
ties, said that a start would be 
made at Krasnoyarsk with a 
“module” of 250,000 tonnes of 
annual capacity to replace out- 
dated existing equipment Arr- 
anging finance for this, an esti- 
mated US$400m to SSOOm, and 
completing detailed engineering 
studies would take 18 months to 
two years, and construction 
another two years. 

But at the same time Alcoa, 
the world's biggest aluminium 
producer, has been talking to 
the Krasnoyarsk smelter man- 
agement. According to local 
sources. Alcoa wants to join 
forces with the hydroelectric 
company that supplies Krasno- 
yarsk, to take over the entire 
plant and its production. 

Similar ideas are being mul- 
led over by Russian investment 
companies which, together with 

western aluminium producers 
(AJussuise is rumoured to be 
among them), might soon be 
putting them to the Krasno- 
yarsk management and the 
Russian government 

In the meantime, Trans-World 
Metals, a London-based interna- 
tional trading company which 
has been the biggest supplier of 
raw materials to Krasnoyarsk 
and possibly its biggest cus- 
tomer for aluminium for export, 
is protecting its commercial 
interest. Trans-World has 
organised consortia to acquire 
large shareholdings, at least 
one-third, in Krasnoyarsk and 
three other Russian smelters. 

T he position of trading 
houses like Trans-World 
is less secure following a 
recent international trade 
agreement between some of the 
big aluminium-producing 
nations which promised funds 
to help modernise the Russian 
industry - and reduce its dread- 
ful pollution - if it Joined in a 
worldwide cut in production. 

But all this jockeying for posi- 
tion suggests that some western 
aluminium groups see a unique 
opportunity to move in to a 
potentially huge new market. 
Russia's smelters are being 
gradually absorbed into the 
global aluminium industry. The 
Russian smelters that survive 

can also be expected to become 
more like their western rivals 
and develop downstream fabri- 
cating operations, because Rus- 
sia eventually will consume 
more of its own aluminium. 

Mr Horst Peters, managing 
director of VAW Aluzninium- 
Technologie. the German group 
that is helping the Novokuz- 
netsk smelter to modernise, 
suggests that this battle for 
ownership of the smelters is 
one of the most important 
issues in Russia today. “It is a 
question of who will supply the 
raw materials and who will 
take the metal in future." 

However, in the meantime, 
says Mr Peters, the physical 
condition of some of the smelt- 
ers is deteriorating rapidly. 
Consequently production will 
be down by 10 to 15 per cent 
this year from the 1993 level 
not because of the trade agree- 
ment but because equipment is 
breaking and not being 
repaired. Russian production is 
therefore likely to be about 
2.5m tonnes compared with the 
industry capacity of about 3.3m. 

One third of the former Soviet 
Union’s 3.6m tonnes of alumini- 
um-smelting capacity could be 
expected to disappear in the 
next five years, driven out of 
production by high costs and 
obsolete equipment, according 
to Mr Peters. 

He pointed out that if they 
are to meet present Russian 
emission standards, Russia's 
aluminium smelters needed 
total investment of US$3.5bn. 
Money for this purpose was 
presently not available in the 
former Soviet Union, nor in the 
western financial markets. Mr 
Petere insisted. 

So those smelters not worth 
modernising will be phased out 
He suggests that some heavily- 
polluting smelters could be 
modernised gradually. This 
could be financed out of cash 
flows and some help from inter- 
national financial institutions 
or export credits. 

Mr Peters insists that the 
Russian smelters are no longer 
low-cost producers. They are 
having to pay world prices for 
alumina fan intermediate mate- 
rial), and electricity and trans- 
port costs have been rising rap- 
idly - including the cost of 
security to protect the valuable 
metal on its travels over vast 
distances. "Some smelters say 
that, if they paid all their bills 
they would be bankrupt." 

The projected Call in output 
should have the effect of stabi- 
lising Russia's aluminium 
exports. Mr Peters suggests, 
because “domestic demand is at 
rock-bottom." Al uminium sales 
in Russia, which fell to only 
600.000 tonnes in 1993. are now 
running below an annual rate 
of 400,000 tonnes. Yet there is 
demand for aluminium prod- 
ucts there - for example, all the 
aluminium windows needed for 
the damaged parliament build- 
ing in Moscow were imported 
from the west 

Forged From Strength, Built on Experience 


•. . \ : l ■ . \ : -. . \ ; 

ALMATY. • ASUNCION • lUM.Kuh * hUMIV. • !;*•»,«. »|\ * t>! < l|.\KI>T • I’m i M >v M’'h> • < WRn 

CARACAS •* (';U\\sh. • I f A M 1 1 h >\ • \ / • III! 1 >T \ ! » * ll<>< III Ml Mi ( !l\ ♦ Kn\(, • ls|.\\*>! I, 

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MILANO * MOMlAiOlM * M(imii\\ . \ »• \\ n«.l lit • l‘\UI> • PRaO' I • ‘)! ;|u • K IO !>I. J.\ \ I 1 1<< > 

KoTTFlil) AM • iWII.M.o • N\<) I’M U> * M'H l. • MIAM.IIU • M \« , \|>« »U|. * M >1 I \ 

SVAMIOUI; • >!*>< klinl'v! * M I > \ I Y • lULIl * MIAMI' • Mli^V.oMKI • > K. Y< 1 • / 1 < . 

11 .-***’ 

Ptete material from Hoogovens aluminium raffing mill Ui Koblenz ta used 
in toe production of sides and bottoms tor the Ariane-5 rocket, the Aral 
prototype of which wffl be launched early in 1996 

The new global deal has cut 
production. But can it last? 

Next year may 
see a shortfall as 
stocks decline 

The unprecedented 
international trade agreement 
signed in February to encour- 
age aluminium producers to 
cat production has trans- 
formed the market this year. 

Prices have risen to levels 
where all producers are malting 
profits, and the huge level of 
world stocks has started to foil 
as consumption outstrips pro- 
duction at last 

The fact that western produc- 
ers sought an international deal 
to help curb the flood of metal 
from Russia is a measure of 
their desperation at the inter- 
minable bufld-up of stocks. By 
the rad of last year, reported 
stocks totalled almost 4.5m 
tonnes, with 2.49m tonnes at 
the London Metal Exchange 
and just over 2m tonnes at the 
International Primary Alumin- 
ium Institute. 

The Memorandum of Under- 
standing (MOU) - signed by 
Australia, Canada, the Euro- 
pean Oman, Norway and the 
US, as well as by Russia - soon 
started to be reflected in rising 
prices on the 
exchange. By 
July, prices 3 worth P*k» (Spar tonne) 

were 50 per 1,800 
cent above the 
eight-year low 
of last Novem- 1>60 ° 
ber - $1,037 a 

The memo- 1 .400 
random called 
for production 
cuts of up to 1,200 
2m tonnes. 

500,000 tonnes ijooi 
in the former 82 
Soviet Union. 

The question 

now is how long can it be 
expected to hold together. As 
Anthony Bird Associates, a UK 
consultancy, pointed out in its 
annual review of the industry, 
there are great difficulties in 
getting such agreements to 
work. In addition to the conflict 
of interest between high- and 
low-cost producers, and legal 
problems faced by American 
and Canadian producers. Bird 
points out that, when such 
agreements collapse, “the 
results can be devastating” - 
and he cites the 1985 tin crisis. 

Bird bases his forecasts on 
the assumption “that the MOU 
w£D be mostly successful for a 
limited period." Bird, in April, 
suggested that production and 
consumption should be roughly 
in balance this year. 

Since then, however, indica- 
tions are that stocks will falL 
Bfllit on-Bn tiioveo. Metals’ ana- 
lysts are looking for a supply 
deficit of 400,000 tonnes, with 
Western world output at 
14.15m tonnes, net imports at 
l.&m tonnes, and consumption 
at 16.15m tonnes. 

Another recent assessment - 
the Spector Report of the US - 
put the estimated decline in 
world stocks at 700.000 tonnes 
this year, in stark contrast to 
the 1.5m tonne increase in 1993. 

However, the real impact is 
likely to come next year. Bird 
suggests that supplies should 
be around 1.4m tonnes below 
output, while Billiton is pre- 
dicting a shortfall of 1.18m 

The prospective foil in stocks 
is not merely a reflection of 
production curbs - consump- 
tion is growing strongly, and 
has been remarkably healthy 
thronghoot the recession. 

“We have little reservation in 
stating that the underlying 
demand outlook for aluminium 
is good, and probably better 
than for any of the other major 
base metals, with the possible 
exception of nickel" says Billi- 
ton in its annual Almnimum 
Market Report The report 
pomts to the underlying growth 
rate in non-mature economies 
particularly sooth-east Asia,’ 
which increased its share of 
western aluminium consump- 
tion from 10.4 per cent to 19.1 
jwwut between 1979 and 
1992. By the end of the decade, 
the proportion could be almost 
25 per cent 

Atthe same time, aluminium 
continues to take market share 
from other metals and materi- 

als in the Industrialised econo- 
mies. nils is particularly true 
of the automobile industry. In 
addition, the packaging sector 
is continuing to grow spectacu- 
larly, and has proved itself 
impervious to recession. Billi- 
ton concludes that “aluminium, 
mainly in the form of can sheet, 
will not only continue to domi- 
nate the expanding US bever- 
age can market but will also 
make increasing inroads in tbe 
European and Japanese mar- 
kets where there remains con- 
siderable scope for growth." 

However, it warns that much 
of the growth in packaging and 
automobile sectors is linked 
with recycling. “Thus to some 
extent the growth in primary 
consumption will be con- 
strained 1^' competition from 
its own remelted scrap." Never- 
theless. Billiton believes an 
underlying growth rate of 
between 2£ and 3 per cent can 
be achieved to the end of the 
decade and beyond. 

Bird is even more optimistic, 
predicting growth of 3.4 per 
cent between 


1990 and 2004 
It points out 
that oi» of the 
main reasons 
for the sector’) 
resilience in tin 
recession wa* 
the “stronj 
position, wbid 
we expect t< 
see maintaiuec 
in the year 
ahead. But li 
addition w< 
think the alu 
minium inten- 
sity of anj 
given level oi 
industrial activity has risen." 

Ironically, demand for the 
metal is likely to outstrip pro 
fraction once the stocks over 
hanging the market have been 
drawn down, which will prob- 
ably take only three years. 

Bird points out that there has 
been an investment famine in 
the west, because of the 
short-term excess of supply. As 
the rate of capacity utilisation 
is already above 90 per cent, “it 
would not take much of a sup- 
ply correction to bring the 
industry back to the point 
where new capacity was needed 
very urgently." 

The only big project due to 
come on stream before the end 
of 1996 is the Alnsaf smelter in 
South Africa. However, Specter 
believes that, in order to meet 
demand in 1997 and 1998. the 
industry needs a further 1.5m 
and 2.6m tonnes respectively of 
new capacity, “and that’s just 
not ou the cards at the 

Observers wonder if the Rus- 
sians will be able to mah* up 
the shortfall. Bird argues that 
there will he ftuther falls in 
exports from tbe former Soviet 
Union, not because of the MOU, 
bid; because of cost con st r aints. 

In toe west, production costs 
have been falling to An Average 
of SI, 135 a tonne. Russian costs 
are already higher at *1,234 a 
tonne - a level at which they 
can now make money. How- 
ever .hyperinflation in the for 
mer Soviet Union is clearly evi- 
dent when comparing the costs 
m 1990, which werTonly 3 per 
cent of the western world aver- 
agfc Bird thinks tbe Russians 
wtu “pr ice themselves out of 
weston markets as a result of 
this cost explosion." 

Paradoxically, the MOU. and 
toe consequent rise in market 
prices, has taken some of the 
short-term pressure off tbe Ros- 
sfflns. At the end of August 
s vector suggested that Russian 

SS°tw!? d already Peaked, 
and that they could be down by 

“ l ?° l000 t ™** a 

month for the last five months 
of this year. 

the indications 
“gather, it looks as though the 
J^tomder of the decade will 

titoe for 

“dustry, with strong growth 
/or expansion. As 
g»etor puts it The ftmdamen- 
jaktak great and are getting 

David Blackwell 


ir may 
rtf all jj 

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O n the face of it, you would not 
expect Mr Leslie Boyd to speak 
favourably about aluminium bev- 
erage cans. • 

As a Scot who worked for British Rfo» [ 
Corporation before moving to Highveld 
Steel in South Africa some 25 years ago he 
would seem an unlikely advocate of this 
particular form of packaging which has 
made a big dent in demand for steeL at 
least in one market sector. Yet he speaks 
enthusiasti c ally about aluminium beverage 
cans “taking over all over the world”. Steel 
cans can’t, compete, he suggests, because 
the aluminium variety land themselves 
much more to recycling 

Today, Mr Boyd is a director of the Anglo 
American Corporation of South Africa and 
chairman of its industrial group, which 
now has a vested interest in the develop- 
ment of aluminium beverage rang in t-h?» 
country. High veld’s Rheem division started 
up a new aluminium can p lant last year, 
which exceeded rated capacity almost from 
day one,. and is expected to make a big 
contribution to Highveld's rarnfag a in 199 4 
Mr Boyd already is suggesting that 
Anglo's next big capital investment in 
South Africa might be a USSL5bn alumin- 
ium can sheet plant to provide raw mate- 
rial for can-making: 

S ignifican tly, given his views on the sub- 
ject, aluminium can recycling in South 

Kenneth Gooding on the implications of aluminium beverage cans' success in the US 

The industry plays its Green card 

Africa, which started only nine mnnthg 
ago, has already reached 20 per cent - a 
level not yet reached in many more mature 
markets, and one that the rest of the global 
industry find s fip^ripning 

For, in the past 30 years, aluminium bev- 
erage cans have elbowed out the steel vari- 
ety and taken virtually 100 per cent of the 
US canned beers and fizzy drinks market 
The industry, dominated by a handful of 
large groups operating globally, is now tak- 
ing lessons learned in the US to other mar- 
kets the world over. 

fa the US, some 95bn cans of beer or fhsy 
soft drinks are consumed every year - an 
aluminium can a day for every man. 
woman and child - and output outstrips 
even the production of nails and paper 

Aluminium beverage can-makers exer- 
cise the same attention and precision as do 
makers of the metal for an aircraft wing, 
using the highest-powered computers to 
desig n c ontaine rs that can withstand three 
times as much pressure as there is in in a 

car tyre and also support 250 lbs in weight 
Careful design has enabled the industry to 
cut the amount of metal needed to produce 
aluminium cans. Today's can weighs about 
0.48 of an ounce, down from about 0.6S of 
an ounce in the 19605, yet producers expect 
to reduce that by another 20 per cent. 

The success of the aluminium beverage 
can has left the aluminium industry with a 
problem: about 10 per cent of global 
demand, for its metal comes from one prod- 
uct in one country. So it is spending 
heavily to spread the “gospel" of the alu- 
minium beverage can around the world. 

To pr omo te the use of aluminium bever- 
age rans outside the US, the industry leans 
heavily in its “green" credentials, daiming 
that aluminium cans may be recycled on a 
“closed loop” system (from cans to scrap 
and back to cans again in only a few 
weeks). The relatively high value of alu- 
minium - al uminium pang are worth Six to 
20 Hmpg more than any other used packag- 
ing material, and are the most valuable 
used package found in household waste - 

enables the industry to spread the word 
that can recycling gives collectors a decent 

Last year, for example, the US industry is 
estimated to have paid out about $900m for 
used cans, money that went back into local 
economies to benefit individuals, schools, 
churches'scout troops and other local 

H owever, this is not simply altruism 
on the industry's part - it needs 
this recycled metal, because it is 
cheap. As much as 95 per cent of the 
energy needed to produce new al uminium 
is saved by recycling old metal, because 
aluminium “stores" energy. This is impor- 
tant because the average smelter uses as 
much power as a town of 500,000 people to 
produce new aluminiu m. On top of that, 
there are capital savings because a re- 
melting plant costs only one-tenth as much 
as a smelter. 

Steel producers point out that the high 
cost of new aluminium means it only 

The motor industry has joined producers in voicing optimism about the metal’s future 

Ford and Audi make light of motoring 

Mr Jacques Bougie, president of Alcan, the 
world's second largest aluminium group, let 
me borrow his car last m onth. He was pre- 
pared to do so because the car is signifi- 
cantly different - it is one of the first 40 
“al uminium intensive vehicles” (AfYs) bu ilt 
by Ford. 

This fleet is based an the Mercury/Sable 
range, and gives the first clear tncticatian 
that aluminium is suitable for the produc- 
tion of high volume, rather than just low 
volume “niche" cars. 

Ford, the world's second largest automo- 
tive group, and Alcan believe they have 
overcome most of the problems associated 
with producing aluminium cars from an 
infrastructure which was set up to mate 
then from steeL 

Ford s till needs to conduct extensive man- 
ufacturing trials and consumer tests an the 
new AIV, and Mr Bougie's car is part cf that 
programme. My half-hour drive from down- 
town Montreal to Dorval airport and back 
did not give much scope fin" serious testing. 
But lack in May the AIV was given a much 
more gruelling try-out when four of the cars 
were taken to the Saint Eusfacfae race track, 
near MontreaL to be put through their paces 
by some automotive writers and profes- 
sional drivers. The drivers were also pro- 
vided with equivalent steel-bodied cars - 
4001bs or 47 per cent heavier that the AlVs 
- to compare performances. 

After this test, Mr Jack Heebler, of Auto- 
motive News, reported: “This car [the AIV] . 

handtes so well it’s as if it has sticky tyres 
to help it hold the road. The AIV actually 
seems to carve through the turn without 
the heavy feeling of the steeMxxDed car." 

Similar favourable reviews greeted the 
Audi AS, the first production car to use 
aluminium as its primary structural mate- 
rial This was good news for executives at 
the Aluminium Company of America 
(Alcoa) and at Audi who have spent the 
past 12 years in a co-operative research 
effort, and have invested a great deal in the 
project Audi has spent about DMlbn 
((650m) to bring the new luxury AS to mar- 
ket, ami Alcoa has spent (70m for a plant at 
Soot in Germany, where it is producing 
space frame ram prmgnts winch it also hopes 
to sell to other car makers. 

Alcoa and Audi took a ffl fc n mt route 
from Ford and Alcan. As al umi n ium is ini- 
tially much more expensive than steel they 
believed it would be too expensive simply to 
g uhgritute al uminiu m com ponent s for those 
traditionally made cf steeL Instead, they 
designed a car that has many fewer individ- 
ual components and structures than are 
used in a steel vehicle. They developed a 
space frame, a skeleton-like body structure, 
rranpnspri of fewer than 100 extrusfons and 
castings, compared with as many as 300 for 
a stamped steel body- Uke Ford and Alcan, 
Alcoa and Audi bad to develop new. manu- 
facturing processes to produce these space 
frames, and new al umini um alloys were 
also developed. 

All this activity has been prompted by 
increasingly stringent regulations covering 
both car fuel economy and emissions. This 
is a global trend, but is strongest in devel- 
oped markets such as the US, western 
Europe and Japan. Both requirements can 
be met by lighter vehicles. And, as custom- 
ers are resisting any awam p h to mate cars 
munh smaller, rfajgw rt are finuusing on 

li ghter material* to replace Steel and plas- 
tics. Aluminium used in a typical US car 
has grown from 50 lbs in the 1960s to nearly 
200Ibs today. Most of that extra aluminium 
has been used in «iru po nignte once mada of 
steel or cast iron. 

There is still growth to come from this 
substitution process. Alcan’s Mr Bougie 
says that demand growth of about 6 l 6 per 
rant a year can be w py hd {Or «nrh thing s 
as rarttngg, forgings and some aluminium 
sheet for cars, from today's starting point of 

4m tunna*. 

However, now “both Alcan and Alcoa 
have demonstrated the use of aluminium tn 
car structures, this gives us growth poten- 
tial for another 20 years. But the big growth 
does not come until after the year 2000. 
Aluminium structures in high volume mod- 
els do not come until 2000 to 2005.” 

At present, the Audi- Alcoa technology is 
not economically viahle for cars produced at 
a rate of more than 100,000 a year. Mr 
Bougie points out that Alcan’s technology 
was fran the start aimed at high- volume 
production of midsized cars, “ft is in the 

mass-produced m o d e ls that the real volume 
mnrfeet ties, a market we should see devel- 
oping over the next five to ten years.” 

Mr Donald Macmillan, vice-president and 
general manager (automotive) for Alcan 
Rolled Products, whose job puts him face to 
face with the US car companies in Detroit, 
says the automotive gro up s are preparing 
themselves for even tighter regulations, and 
that, in order to achieve those new stan- 
dards, they will need to hit higher miles per 
gallon figures with high- volume, main- 
stream vehicles. 

When a car is designed specifically to be 
made of aluminium, secondary weight 
savings can be incorporated - a lighter body 
mpflng that angina* nm be smaller, braking 
systems do not have to be so powerful, and 

There are still some question-marks over 
the Use of a h imt ni mn in cars - quagtiim* 
about aluminium's reparabflity and its cost 
A recent Massachusetts Institute of Tech- 
nology study showed that car-makers were 
having to spend an extra (L50 a car for 
every lb saved - not particularly welcomed 
by an Industry that likes pinching its 

The motor industry is also worried about 
the volatility of aluminium prices. Both 
Alcoa’s uhafruum, Mr Paul O^NeflL and Mr 
Macmillan, of Alcan, insist, however, that 
“Me of car” stab le prices be offered as 
long as these reflect the cost of replacing 
the smelte r s rawd to produce the Tnptei. 

as'.-slcprient partner ■ M Mk ■ Mk m 
I pxcucers and orico- yj Ir lr 


;rirtll end miridie-rarg- 

-■v. Fs. 02 23/5:2 2120. A\J 

,-luir-i-vum AG, 2 rvsrr.h&r cf the Vi AG Group, is ar e* os- 
r -;-|p automotive industry. As ore cf dope's iodine elon-rium producers and fa orica 
rs. we use cur range of exoertise to-generete irvreiligent soiu- ^ / . . uy* 

.„ ,-jose cooperation with our p*rin*?<, turning Q / III 

i-xarr.oie: siy minor 

PO 5ov 2465. 5301- Bonn, Germ 

Weight costs energy. 

And energy is too ' 
valuable to waste. 

The less a car weighs, the less 
power is needed to move it 
One important key to energy- 
saving transport is the rapidly 
increasing adoption of sophisticated 
lower-density composites and alloys. 

makes economic sense to use aluminium 
cans if more than 60 per cent of them are 
recycled. Not many markets achieve this 
level. The US recycling rate of about 66 per 
cent means that last year roughly 600,000 
tonnes of aluminium, worth about 8900m. 
escaped from the system, possibly to be 
thrown away. 

In the US, recycling of used beverage 
cans (known in the jargon as UBCs) is 
facilitated through more than 10,000 recycl- 
ing centres. There is no shortage of recycl- 
ing infrastructure in Europe either. British 
Alcan in 1991 opened a £2Sm remelt plant 
dedicated to UBCs at Warrington in the 

UK; and others are operated by Granges in 
Sweden, VAW in Germany. Elval in 
Greece. Alcan and Reynolds Metals in Italy, 
and Pechlney in France. Together they 
have an annual capacity of 120,000 tonnes, 
helping to torn old beverage cans into new 
ones. There are also many secondary smelt- 
ers throughout Europe remelting UBCs 
into new ingots for other high-quality alu- 
minium products. 

In Europe, several aluminium companies 
are financially backing an organisation 
which promotes aluminium can recycling, 
Acre (Aluminium Can Recycling Europe). 
Acre helped South Africa’s equivalent 
organisation prepare the groundwork for 
that country’s roaring start to aluminium 
can recycling. 

According to Acre, Europeans worked 
their way through 56,050 tonnes of alumin- 
ium beverage cans last year, up from 39,595 
in 1992; and at least 29 per cent were recy- 
cled. up from 26 per cent 

Mr Richard Holder, chairman of Reyn- 
olds Metals of the US, now one of the 
world's biggest aluminium can producers, 
says the industry can expect growth in the 
US to come by taking share from glass and 
plastic containers for products other than 
beverages. “Outside the US there are won- 
derful opportunities.” he suggests. 

Reynolds built its first aluminium can 
plant with local partners in Brazil in 1968. 
ft has been expanded three times, and a 
second plant is under construction. The 
Brazilian company is also constructing 
plants in Argentina and Chile. Mr Holder 
says: "When we've finished well have the 
capacity to make Sbn cans a year - but 
that’s only 5 to 6 per cent of the market. So 
if growth trends follow the US pattern, the 
market opportunities are obvious for many 

The Audi A8 was the flrst production car to um aUnninkun as its primary structural material 

The Noth American groups are not the 
only ernes likely to share in the potential 
bonanza. Hydro Aluminium, part of Norsk 
Hydro, Norway’s biggest industrial group 
and Europe’s biggest producer of aluminium 
Btnrtmw, has a vested interest in the suc- 
cess of the space-frame concept, which 
could be a big user of extrusions. Hydro has 
been successfully cooperating on car space- 
frame concepts s»nra the mfai 1980s with 
various groups, including Renault in 
France, Porsche in Germany and Pininfar- 
ina in Italy. 

Alusmsse-Lonza, of Switzerland, has a vir- 
tual monopoly in the supply of al uminium 
sheet for the car industry in Europe, 
because it has developed and patented an 
alloy that other companies prefer to use 
under licence rather than develop an equiv- 
alent material. 

There is stDl a possibility that the ava- 
lanche of new business that the aluminium 

industry hopes for from the motor industry 
will not materialise, and executives remain 
cautious about some of the more extrava- 
gant forecasts being made. The steel and 
plastics producers are working hard to 
ensure their car business is not further 
eroded. Already a lightweight cast iron for 
automotive components available is avail- 
able from Sintercost, a Michigan-based, 
Swedish- American company. 

Nevertheless, Alcan's Mr Bougie can say 
confidently. “By the year 2010, the world 
automotive industry could be consuming ns 
much as three times the niuminj um it does 
today. The aHrfiHnn.-i7 shipments to this mar- 
ket alone could require the equivalent of the 
output of 30 to 40 additional world-scale 
aluminium smelt ers, al thoug h by that time 
a growing part of this would come from 
recycled aluminium.” 

Kenneth Gooding 

Light is right 

A leafing producer of light 
metals, Hydro Aluminium is working 
in dose alliance with major car 
makers, creating vehicles with 
modem materials that provide the 
optimum combination of strength 
and Bghtness. 

By the end of this decade the 
light metal content of the average car 

may have more than doubled, 
conserving fuel and reducing 

For a world vehicle fleet that win 
reach twice today's numbers at 
some point in the next century, the 
light way is certainly 
the right way. 

Hy*o it eniimslrial group bataaen0mpnoaing«*nmrmrasomo8 to moat iwe&iorlQoAmrgyan0mmiiais. 

For hsthtr Information, please contact Hytfro Aluminium, Postbox BO. 1321 Stabekk. Norway. TeLf *471327381 00 



A luminium has clearly 
been the London Metal 
Exchange's outstanding 
performer this year. 

At 49 per cent, its price rise 
since the end of 1993 beats cop- 
per into second place by 13 per- 
centage points; and while it 
still has to play second fiddle 
to that contract In terms of 
turnover, it has narrowed the 
gap appreciably with a 4&5 per 
cent rise to lO.fiftn lots in the 
January-September period, 
compared with copper’s 11.5 
per cent rise to 13.2m lots. 

A less welcome distinction is 
al umini um's continuing unas- 
sailable lead in the LME ware- 
house stocks league. Although 
down by 460,000 tonnes from 
June's all-time high, the total, 
at 2.19m tonnes, is still nearly 
double that for zinc, which is 
itself well clear of lead and 
copper in the minor placings. 

That the size of the stockpile 
has been a millstone around 
the neck of the al uminium mar- 
ket as it has striven to lead the 
base-metals sector out of reces- 
sion is beyond doubt But it has 
become a less onerous burden 
of late, as concerted efforts by 
aluminium producers around 
the world to reduce excess pro- 
duction have led to a quicken- 
ing drawdown from this over- 
hanging reserve of metal. 


Richard Mooney discusses the importance to aluminium of the London Metal Exchange 

Lower production cuts the stockpile 

From the LME's point of 
view, moreover, the size of the 
stockpile pays a compliment to 
the success of the aluminium 
contract since its launch in 

“The LME is now performing, 
with great ease and enthusi- 
asm, the inventory financing 
job that was once done for con* 

The stockpile is a 
compliment to the 
success of the 
aluminium contract 

sumers and producers by their 
own individual banks." Mr Ted 
Arnold, Metals Analyst at Mer- 
rill Lynch, told a Metal Bulle- 
tin-sponsored conference in 
London this year. He said it 
was estimated that between 55 
and 60 per cent of surplus alu- 
minium stocks in the western 
world were now held on the 
LME, compared with only 14 
per cent 12 years ago. 

Facilitating this develop- 
ment, Mr Arnold said, had 
been a change in the LME's 
membership structure. There 
were now for more banks and 
financial -sendees institutions, 
which had “easy access to 
large amounts of money". 

He quoted a survey produced 
by Alan Heap, of County Nat- 
West Securities Australia, 
which showed that up to 80 per 
cent of all LME stocks were 
now held by financial institu- 
tions, rather than by "tradi- 
tional" users of the physical 
market, such as producers, 
merchants and consumers. 

But the development of a 
highly liquid LME aluminium 
contract has also altered the 
commercial behaviour of some 
producers of the metal, sug- 
gests Alcan Aluminum. In a 
recent issue of Compass, its 
house journal, the Canadian 
producer said that before they 
had the LME as a "buyer of 
last resort" producers world- 
wide had been "quicker to 

150 -™-\— 

adjust their production to mar- mg 1 
ket needs. breei 

“But today, things are quite LME 
different. New types of produc- inve. 
ere have entered the market had 
over the past 

ten years - if LIRE transactions 
they can't find 
clients for their Miflort tonnes 
metal, they ® so . " “ 

simply sell it to 

the LME and 200 -■ ■ - 

receive cash." 

Alcan also . \ 
noted that it 150 
was mainly 

speculators 100 — — ----- 

who owned the . 

aluminium in H 

LME ware- .■*'«. -B 

houses. "These 
investors have -? — 

nothing to do • wreeo • as 
with the alu- *^ Lc ^ [ ^ E * c * ar ^ 
minium indus- 
try." it pointed out. “For them, trade 

buying and setting aluminium lowe 

is strictly an investment deci- watc 

sion." Th 

Alcan is not alone in warn- ate, I 

mg of the impact of the new 
breed of investors involved in 
LME trading. Buying by 
investment funds and banks 
had increased metal prices. 

and the vol- 
rons umes traded 

and sometimes 
254 caused prices 

.. tQ ant j C i pate 

H improvements 

... -I|j- in the funda- 

n mental supply- 

ill demand bal- 

Jfff ances, County 

188 NatWest's Alan 

Heap told an 

_J||8p LME seminar 

.feUr nfa during London 

' jK:' ; . 3 * Metals Week 

Je BH earlier this 

month. But 
i so 1983 “later in the 
1W9 ° cycle short sell- 

ing by non- 
trade players may push prices 
lower than many market 

watchers would expect". 

The threat was not immedi- 
ate, however. Banks held metal 

in LME warehouses as collat- 
eral against loans, and also as 
a revenue-earning investment 

- so it was not available for 
imm ediate delivery. About half 
the LME stockpile was tied up 
as collateral, Mr Heap esti- 

This ‘Tinancialisation" of 
LME stocks was part of the 
explanation as to how “physi- 
cal tightness" could drive alu- 
minium prices higher at a time 
of "statistical surplus", accord- 
ing to US industry analyst 
Stewart Spector. In addition, 
there were "logistical prob- 
lems" limiting how quickly 
metal not tied up in financing 
programmes could be shipped 
from the LME warehouses 
around the world, Mr Spector 
pointed out in the latest issue 
of his Monthly Aluminium Sta- 
tistical Review. 

All this suggests that, while 
the market effect of the LME 
stockpile Is not so heavy as it 
may at first appear, it is likely 
to last longer than producers 

would hope. At Rotterdam, 
where the amount of LME alu- 
minium ingot awaiting ship- 
ment was estimated at 400.000 
tonnes, and rising "almost 
daily", port facilities wen- 
capable of loading no more 
t h an 60.000 tonnes a week and 
more probably somewhere 
between 30.000 and 40,000 

The newly-merged New 
York exchanges hope to 

have a new aluminium 
contract in 1995 

tonnes, said the Spector 
review. “At that rate, it could 
take well into 1995 to empty 
Rotterdam warehouses." 

LME dominance or the world 
al umin ium market could be 
facing a challenge soon, but 
not so soon as bad been expec- 

The newly-merged New York 
Mercantile Exchange (Nyznex> 
and New York Commodity 

Exchange iCoiiiex) had 
planned to have a new alumin- 
ium contract up and running 
early in W95. but Nymt-x chair- 
man Daniel Ibippapnrt admit- 
ted recently that that target 
was "overly optimistic". “But 
there i* still a chance for the 
end of is**." he added. 

One problem, he said, was 
designing a contract with spec- 
ifications that met the mar- 
ket's needs. Another was prop- 
erly integrating it with thp 
LME's established contract. 

"The Cnnusc and LME con- 
tracts now feed on each other." 
Mr Rappoport told the Reuters 
news agency, adding that 
Nymex’s aim would be to cre- 
ate a similar "symbiosis" with 
the aluminium contract 

He noted that LME chairman 
Raj Bagri had told him that 
then- was not room for two 
aluminium contracts. "But he 
invited us to find that out for 
ourselves.” the Nymex chief 

One lending US producer, 
Kaiser Aluminum Corporation, 
seems to agree with Mr Bagri. 
“Right now the LME has many 
delivery locations in the US, 
and it seems to be working effi- 
ciently." said a company exec- 
utive earlier this year. "I don't 
see the need for another con- 
tract to get our business done.” 

Kenneth Gooding looks at other recent developments 

As value rises, so does theft 

The downside to al uminium 's 
high value and recyclability is 
that it is all too frequently the 
target for thieves. 

When prices rise, aluminium 
beer barrels, road signs and 
bridge rails - often cut through 
by power saws - disappear at a 
growing rate. 

This represents a real loss for 
the industry, because these 
products are usually made from 
high-quality alloys which would 
normally be recycled as such. 
But, after thieves have melted 
down these products, the alloy 
is not immediately recognisable, 
and the metal is sold as the 
lowest-priced scrap. 

More important, customers - 
particularly local authorities - 
are forced to consider giving up 
using aluminium and changing 
to less-tempting materials, even 
if those materials do not per- 
form as well as aluminium. 

Ways to 
recycle foil 

A lready as much as 70 per 
cent of the aluminium 
used in electrical engi- 
neering, building and transport 
is re-used. Aluminium automo- 
tive castings are almost entirely 
made from scrap metal. 

The industry is now turning 
its attention to recycling alu- 
minium foil - a tricky business, 
because a great deal of hulk has 
to he collected to get any rea- 
sonable weight, and 90 per cent 
of foil is meant to be in contact 
with food which creates hygiene 

In the US. Reynolds Metals, 
the second-largest aluminium 
group, began testing foil recycl- 

ing in 199L Mr Jeremiah Shee- 
han, Reynolds' president, admits 
that it is not as commercially 
necessary for the industry to 
recycle foil as beverage cans - 
in the US only 200m lbs (90,700 
tonnes) of al uminium is used 
annually for consumer foil, plus 
a s imila r quantity for food and 
other containers, compared with 
4bn lbs (1.8m tonnes) used for 

“But recycling helps to iden- 
tify foil as a green product" he 
points out “It gives foil an edge 
over plastics." 

In the UK nearly 40 per cent 
Of al uminium used in packaging 
(including beverage cans) goes 
into foil and about 50,000 tonnes 

Of al uminium foil packa g in g , 
worth, roughly £l5m, is thrown 
away every year. 

To recapture at least some of 
this, an Aluminium Foil Recycl- 
ing Campaign (AFRC) was 
started by foil converters Alcan 
Ekco Packaging, Bo water Foil 
and Paper Products, and Wil- 
liam Garfield, all members of 
the Aluminium Foil Container 
Manufacturers Association, with 
British Alcan Consumer Prod- 

AFRC spent £200,000 over two 
years on five pilot schemes, 
from which it became obvious 
that foil would not be collected 
successfully by local authorities 
working alone, without help 
from the industry. So the indus- 
try has drawn up a 10-year plan 
which will establish national 
infrastructure and work 
towards a 30 per cent recycling 

Typically, schemes provide 
local authority “foil bank" 
systems serviced by a single 
local charity or group of chari- 
ties. Banks are located on super- 
market or other prime sites. 


8500 K08T8IJK (Bcljloa) ^ 

Tel *32 56 220021 Fax +3Z 56 2Z6414 

Leading manufacturers of 
Bronze & Aluminium powders & pastes 

Sectors of application : 

Flexs, holla, textile printing ; plastics ; coatings ; paints 
pyrotechnics ; ltghtmlght concrete 

AFRC says the involvement of a 
local charity provides motiva- 
tion for the public to give for 
their own community - dean 
foil can fetch £350 a tonne. 
Schools are also be involved in 
the collection schemes. The 
scheme is funded by a voluntary 
levy of £10 a tonne from the 
rolling mills. 



A luminium is a relative 
newcomer compared with 
other metals, and manu- 
facturing industry in general 
remains woefully ignorant 
about its uses. 

The European aluminium 
industry is intends to rectify 
this with a 51.5m (Elm) project 
aimed at educational institu- 
tions and industries that use the 

Under a European Commis- 
sion programme known as Corn- 
ett it aluminium industries in 
nine EC and European Free 
Trade Association countries and 
25 universities are setting out to 
put aluminium on the educa- 
tional map. 

The EC is providing about 
one third of the Sim (£600,000) 
cost, while the universities are 
contributing their time. The 
industry is footing the rest of 
the bill, mainly through the 
UK's Aluminium Federation, 
Germany’s AJuminium-Zentrale 
and SkanAluminlum in the Nor- 
dic countries. 

The Aluminium Training 
Partnership (ATP) provides the 
link between the industry and 
the universities. 

The second, and most impor- 
tant project, is known as Talat, 
an acronym for Training for 
Aluminium Application Tech- 

Its objective is to produce 150 
hours of teaching material cov- 
ering a broad range of engineer- 
ing disciplines: material prop- 
erty information on engineering 
alloys and products; design and 
calculation of aluminium allay 
structures; manufacturing of 
products; joining techniques 
and surface technology. 

For each subject one or more 
groups of university partners 

Ail j 

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FAX 1-45270706 

have been formed, each with 
specialist contacts in the Indus- 
try. They aim to produce lec- 
tures suitable for courses in 
nearly all the relevant areas of 
torthnirgl education. 

In the UK the Department of 
Trade and Industry has prom- 
ised £131000 over three years, if 
tire industry will match that 
pound for pound, for teaching 
material such as lecture notes 
ami formatted computer disks. 

act of faith 

N o company has more 
faith in the future of alu- 
minium than Gencor, the 
South African resources group, 
which in July paid $Llbn for 
most of the Royal Duteh/Sheli 
group's mining and minerals 
assets. These operate mainly 
under the Billiton banner. 

About 60 per cent of Billiton's 
revenues come from its interests 
in bauxite and alumina, the raw 
material and intermediate prod- 
uct needed for aluminium pro- 
duction. These interests are 
located in Australia, where Billi- 
ton has 30 per cent of the big 
Worsley deposit, Brazil and 

Gencor also has a 41 per cent 
interest in Alusaf, the South 
African aluminium producer 
that is completing a $2bn expan- 
sion to increase its annua] 
capacity to 646,000 tonnes, a size 
not seen outside Russia before. 

Mr Brian GUbertson. Gencor’s 
c h air m an, points out that a 
combination of Alusaf and the 
Billiton upstream bauxite and 
alumina operations would pro- 
duce the fifth-iargest integrated 
aluminium business in the 
world. Gencor has zn mind float- 
ing Billiton or part of the alu- 
minium assets on a stock 
exchange at some stage. 

Mr Gilbertson admits that 
when aluminium prices are low 
the Billiton deal has little 
appeal. However, “at high prices 
the returns are huge. If our esti- 
mate of tiie medium-term [alu- 
minium] price trends are any- 
where near correct, then this 
parcel of assets will prove to be 
very valuable and the price we 
have paid to have been cheap.” 

Williams & Moffat 

Specialist's In Aluminium Plate fit Bar 
8083 0VS] 

0082 (B30) 


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Delivery 24 bows from order to despatch 
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A metal and some 
of its applications 

Top: Nearly 75 per cent of the structural components of the new 
Boeing 777 wide-bodied commercial transport aircraft are of 
aluminium. R is scheduled for full-scale production next year. 

Upper left As a packaging material, aluminium has a number of 
advantages. R is light, air- and moisture-proof, safe and hygienic 
for medicines, heat-resistant and excellent to print on. 

5 Above: Miguel Indurain won the 1994 Tour de France on a 
bicyde made of Dural can, an aluminium-based metal-ceramic 
material. Thirty competitors used such btcydes. 

Left During the summer, the Feyenoord football stadium, bi 
Rotterdam, was given an aluminium roof covering. 



A name synonymous with quality aluminium 
castings since 1931 

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in green sand, dry sand, plaster and special 
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' -VM' are synonymous 

Indeed 'producer responsibility 1 will not 
be a new experience for the aluminium 
Industry which had not waited for the 
Department of the Environment and the 
Department of Trade and Industry to lay 
down their joint challenge to the 
packaging chain in 1993. 

Years of research and development 
work have resulted in advances 
in source reduction, light weighting, 
reduction in energy use and 
development of successful recycling 

In 1989, the five* major aluminium can 
sheet producers founded the 
Aluminium Can Recycling 
Association (ACRA) to promote the 
many benefits of aluminium drinks can 
recycling (environmental and fund 
raising) to develop UK collection 
infrastructure, to assist in establishing 
numerous grass-roots collection projects 

and to increase the recycling rate, 
indeed since 1989, the UK aluminium 
can recycling rate has grown steadily 
from 2% to an estimated 21% j n igg3 
and ACRA's own milestone, regardless 
of any legislated targets, of 50% 
recycling rate, is within its sights for the 
end of the decade. 

The good news is that the aluminium 
Industry's acceptance of its 'producer 
responsibility has worked out very well 
for the 5* can sheet producers. There is 
every reason to believe therefore, that 
'Producer Responsibility It will prove to 
be every bit as beneficial for PRG's 
28 companies and for Mr Gummer and 
Mr Heseliine too! 

For assistance with your involvement 
in aluminium can recycling, please 
call ACRA on 021-633 4656, facsimile 
021-633 4698. 

"Alcan. Alcoa. PecNfwy, RaynoWa and VAW.