Skip to main content

Full text of "NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS) 19850027223: Comparative analysis of operational forecasts versus actual weather conditions in airline flight planning, volume 3"

See other formats


General Disclaimer 


One or more of the Following Statements may affect this Document 


• This document has been reproduced from the best copy furnished by the 
organizational source. It is being released in the interest of making available as 
much information as possible. 


• This document may contain data, which exceeds the sheet parameters. It was 
furnished in this condition by the organizational source and is the best copy 
available. 


• This document may contain tone-on-tone or color graphs, charts and/or pictures, 
which have been reproduced in black and white. 


• This document is paginated as submitted by the original source. 


• Portions of this document are not fully legible due to the historical nature of some 
of the material. However, it is the best reproduction available from the original 
submission. 


Produced by the NASA Center for Aerospace Information (CASI) 




COMPARATIVE ANALYSIS 

OF 

OPERATIONAL FORECASTS 

VS 

ACTUAL WEATHER CONOITIONS 

IN 

AIRLINE FLIGHT PLANNING 


JSC.r 


pnc sPBAa 

OlVISIOfSi OF PRC Fn_ANrvjlNG AND BC£ 


■PACB AOMINISTRATIOIM 


(NAS»-CR-167864) COMPARITIVB INULYSIS CF N85-35 

OPBP&TIOhlL FORECASTS VERSUS ACTUAL HBATHBii 
CONDITIONS IN AIRLINE FLIGHT PLANNING, 

VOLUME 3 (PRC Plannlnq and Econoaics, Inc.) Unclas 

96 p HC A05/MF A0 1 CSCL C4b J3/U7 26884 


X Ww um ’i Cm»m« 


I. M«avi Na. 

!IASA Ct-l«7l«4 


4. TM* M ImMiM 

Coaparaciv* Analrtlt at Oparatlanai roraeaats va. AceuaX 
Uaaehar Coailtiaaa la Airliaa ril|ht riaoalat - Voluaa III 


I Miean OtM 
April 1M2 


I. NrtarmMp Orpw«iMian Cad* 


7, Ar^Mrltl 

Joha T. Kale* 


X Or^nuMian Nama and Addraa 

PKC ipaaa - Olvlaloa at PIC Plaoolni A EcdOdalca, lac. 

tool Saw Hrla Park laaa 

L«ka Suceaai, Saw York 11042 


12. Yoartanm «|antv Nan* atd Addraa* 

Haeisnal Aarooauclc* and ipac* Adaial* era cion 
'iteablaicoa, O.C. 20346 



<3. Mark Uflrt No. 


11. Caatiaci at Qrani Na 
HAS 3-22748 


12. ^va* at A«oon ato aaridd Cavarad 
Contraccor laport 


14. Saomarinp Apancv Cad* 


IX Suodtatnamary No<*( 

Projact .'Unayar, labare Scalabari, Aircraft Propulalon Olvlaloa, HA8A Lawia 
laaaarch Caatar, Clavalaad, Ohio 44US 


A aeudr waa eoaluccad on e>M lapact at aor* elsalY and accuraca waachar data on alrlina flight 
planaiag with ch* aaphaala on fual tavinga. Thia voluaa of ehd rapore dlaeuaaaa eh* raaulea 
of Taak III of eh* four aajor eaaka Included la th* atudr* Taak III coaparad flight plana 
dovalopad oa ch* Suleland foracaac with actual data obaarrad by th* aircraft (and avaragad 
ovar 10 dagraa tagaanca). Tha raaulea ahowad chat ch* avarag* dlffaranc* baevaaa :ha foracaac 
and obaarvad i Ind apaad waa 9 kea. without cooaldarlag diracclon, and th* avarag* dlffaranc* 
loch* coaponanc of ch* foracaac wind parallal to eh* dlractioa of th* obaar-^ad wind waa 13 
kea. - both lodlcaclng that eh* Suleland foracaac uadaraaclaataa tha wind apaada. Th* Root 
Haan Sduar* (RMS) vaccoc arror waa 10.1 kea. Th* av*ra«* abaolut* dlffaranc* in diracclon 
baewaan th* foracaac and obaarvad wind waa 26 dagraaa and eh* caaparacur* dlffaranc* waa 3 
dagraa* Canelgrad*. Than* raaulea ladlcat* that eh* foracaac aodal at wall aa eha varlfylag 
analyala uaad to dovalop coaparlton flight plana In Taaka I and II waa a Halting factor and 
ehac tha avarig* pocanclal fual taviaga or panalcy ara up to 3.6 parcane dapandlng on eh* 
diracclon of flight. 


17. kav Wamt iSintwraa ov Aumoriiil 

IX 0lavtbuv.3n Staiamam 

Aircrafe fual aavlnga 
Uaachar 

nighc planning 

Sorch Aclanclc crack tyacaa 



IX Saouiiy Oataf (of tma raooni 

30. Soeunfv Ca«at. lo1 tM« 0 * 9*1 

21. No. at *k 9 *i 

J1 •"€*• 

Onclaaalfiad 

One laaa If i*d 

1 94 

L 



' For ult by tm Nitiongl Ttctinicol inforiwion Stfvici. Sixinffitid. Virginia 22161 


SASA-C-166 (Ra* 10.79) 


zee SPEAS 




















TA8LE OF CONTENTS 
********************* 


Page 

Number 

1. INTRODUCTION 1 

2. SUMMARY 2 

2.1 Magnitude of Forecast Differences 4 

2.2 Sign of of Forecast Differences 5 

3. ANALYSIS METHODOLOGY 8 

3.1 Data Sources 3 

3.2 Data Normal ization. 10 

4. FINDINGS 17 

4.1 BLUE Airlines Findings 17 

4.2 Supplemental BLUE Airlines Findings..., 23 

4.3 RED Airlines Findings 25 

4.4 Supplemental RED Airlines Findings. 29 

APPENDIX A - FINDINGS BY REGION, DIRECTION OF FLIGHT AND 
AIRLINE 


pro SPEAS 


1 . 


1. INTRODUCTION 
★**■****★**★**★*★*★** 

PRC Speas, assisted by David R. Bornemann Associates, Inc., has conducted 
analyses of flight plan data for the National Aeronautics and Space 
Administration-Lewis Research Center under Contract #NAS3-22748. 

The objective of these analyses was to assess the potential improvements 
in fuel savings which may be possible from improved meteorological 
data. Flight plans calculated from prescribed input parameters and 
meteorological data sets were used as quantitative indicators of differ- 
ences in fuel burn and other relevant parameters. Flight plan data were 
provided through the cooperation of two airlines which will be referred 
to as "BLUE Airlines" and "RED Airlines" throughout this report in order 
to maintain anonymity. 

The work program under this contract was divided into four tasks. This 
volume of the final report presents the findings of Task III which 
involved comparisons of actual flight plan winds and temperatures from an 
operational forecast with the actual winds and temperatures observed by 
flights equipped with an Aircraft Integrated Data System (AIDS). 

Subsequent sections of this volume describe the analysis methodology and 
the results for Task III. 


SPEAS 


2 . 


2. SUMMARY 
*************** 

The Task III analysis compared actual wind and temperature observations 
taken by AIDS equipped aircraft during eight months of 1979 with data 
from the flight plans used by those flights. The flight plans were based 
upon the NWS forecasts valid near the time the flights operated and were 
computed on the RED or BLUE Airlines flight planning systems. Flight 
plans for flights of the other airlines that use the BLUE Airlines system 
were also included in this analysis. 

The objective of the Task III analysis was to determine differences that 
existed between the forecast winds and temperatures and those actually 
observed by the aircraft. In Task I, differences were determined 
(measured by fuel burn, flight time and air miles) between the forecast 
and the actual as represented by the NWS forecast and analysis models, 
after the data were subjected to the editing, smoothing, and other 
adjustments inherent in the model. 

The key findings in Task III were: 

• Based on analysis of 2,430 flight segments when the flight plan 
winds and temperatures based upon the NWS forecast were compared 
to actual data observed by the aircraft and averaged over 10 degree 
segments, difference between the forecast and observed wind speed 
was 9 kts., the direction difference averaged 26 degrees and the 
average temperature difference was 3*C. The average difference in 
the component of the forecast wind parallel to the direction of the 


PPC SPEAS 


3 . 


observed wind was 13 kts. The Root Mean Square (RMS) vector error 
was 30.1 kts. When the wind is always from the direction with 
maximum impact on the direction of flight a 13 kt. error results in 
fuel burn and time penalties of up to 15 minutes and 2,835 kg (932 
gal.) of fuel for the average B747 flight. These flight segments 
were from operational routes which were not minimum fuel tracks and 
may not have been in the area of maximum wind and thus actual errors 
may be larger. 

• Although BLUE and RED Airlines data agre'id that the absolute value 
of the average temperature errors was 3*C, BLUE found the temper- 
atures warmer than forecast while RED found them colder than 
forecast. Similarly, BLUE found the wind direction forecast error 
toward decreasing azimuthal directions while RED found errors toward 
increasing azimuth eastbound and decreasing westbound, indicating 
that weather data interpoUtion errors probably exist in one or both 
flight planning systems. 


Computer programs were developed to extract the wind and temperature data 
from the flight plans and AIDS tapes, reduce them to comparable flight 
segments, and produce statistics on the differences between the forecast 
and actual winds and temperatures. While the flight plan winds and 

temperatures were normally already available as averages 'of ten degree 
longitude segments, the AIDS observations were typically spaced at 200 km 
intervals and averages for 10 degree segments had to be developed. 

A cubic spline function was used to represent the AIDS flight's wind 
direction, speed, temperature and latitude as a continuous function of 
longitude along the flight path. The discrete values of these parameters 
were then determined for each five degree meridional crossing - i.e., 

SOW, 45W, 40W, 35W, etc. Average values for the ten degree segment 

were then determined weighting the midpoint twice the weight of each 

endpoint. 


SPEAS 


4 . 


Segment data were checked for matches of month, day, flight number, 
origin, destination position and flight level. Segments for which the 
AIDS flight did not match the operational flight plan were discarded. 


2.1 MAGNITUDE OF FORECAST DIFFERENCES 


Matching data from AIDS flights 

and flight plans 

were found for 2,430 

segments distributed regionally as 

follows : 



SLUE 

RED 


Airlines 

Airlines 

Eastbound North Atlantic 

394 

358 

Westbound North Atlantic 

696 

736 

Eastbound Polar 

4 

79 

Westbound Polar 

13 

109 

Eastbound Mid-Atlantic 

9 


Westbound Mid-Atlantic 

32 



Differences between the flight plans and AIDS data per flight segment, 
and thus between the forecast and the observed, are summarized below: 


BLUE RED 

Airlines Airlines 


Average Algebraic Difference 

Wind Direction 
Wind Speed 
Temperature 

Average of Absolute Values of Differences 

-5 deg 
-9 kts 
-2"C 

+1 deg 
-5 kts 

+rc 

Wind Direction 

29 deg 

20 deg 

Wind Speed 

14 kts 

13 kts 

Temperature 

3"C 

3 C 

Average Difference in Component of 
Forecast Wind Parallel to Observed Wind 

16 kts 

8 kts 

RMS Vector Error 

33 kts 

24 kts 


pPC SPEAS 


5 . 


Using data from Task I on average North Atlantic flight times and fuel 
burns, it was determined that if the wind were always from the direction 
with maximum impact on the direction of flight this error results in fuel 
burn and time penalties of up to 15 minutes and 2,835 kg of fuel for a 
B747 flight. This fuel burn penalty, or potential savings, amounts to 
3.6 percent of the fuel burn for the flight. 

Since the criteria for matching AIDS flights and flight plans resulted 
in some 70 to 80 percent of segments being rejected, a supplemental 
analysis was conducted with relaxed criteria to expand the size of the 
sample. In this second run segments with flight level differences of 
plus or minus 2,000 feet between the flight plan and AIDS data were nut 
rejected. This resulted in a sample of 1,788 BLUE Airlines segments and 
1,282 RED Airlines segments for a total of 3,070 segments. Even though 
the sample increased by 72 percent the average forecast error only 
changed by 0.5 degrees on wind direction, 0.2 kts. on speed, and 0.34*C 
on temperature, leading to the conclusion that the original sample was 
large enough to be representative of the real world even though many data 
had to be rejected. 

2.2 SIGN OF FORECAST DIFFERENCES 

Since the average algebraic differences between the forecast values and 
the observed values were determined by subtracting the observed value 
from the forecast value, the algebraic sign of the differences provided 
further data on the forecast errors. 


pro SPEAS 


6 . 


For the North Atlantic region the means of the algebraic differences 
between the operational flight plan and the AIDS data were: 



Temperature 

rc) 

Wind 

Direction (deg) 

Speed 

(kts) 

BLUE Airline 

Eastbound 

-2.28 

-5.35 

-8.27 

Westbound 

-2.53 

-4.17 

-8.97 

RED Airline 

Eastbound 

+1.97 

+1.94 

-6.39 

Westbound 

+1.69 

-2.04 

-4.24 


For both airlines the average wind speed differences were always nega- 
tive, meaning the AIDS winds were stronger and implying that wind speeds 
were underestimated which confirms the findings of the other tasks in 
this study. 

Negative temperature differences mean temperatures were warmer than 
forecast and the findings on temperature were somewhat incongruous. 
Even though both airlines' data agreed that the temperature forecasts 
were in error by approximately 3*C, the BLUE Airlines data showed the 
temperatures warmer than forecast while the RED data implied temperatures 
were colder than forecast (positive differences). Regarding wind 
direction, negative differences mean the forecast wind is from a lower 
azimuthal direction than the actual wind, or in other words, considering 


pro SPEAS 


7 . 


that t(H» average wind direction should be from 270 degrees, negative 
differences suggest actual winds more northwesterly than forecast 
and positive differences suggest actual winds more southwesterly than 
forecast. On wind direction, the BLUE Airlines differences were always 
negative while the RED Airlines differences (for the larger North 
Atlantic sample) were positive eastbound and negative westbound. No 
information available to PRC Speas suggests an explanation for these 
latter two incongruous findings and It is suspected that they are the 
result of features peculiar to the weather data interpolation techniques 
in use by the RED or BLUE Airlines or both. 


PPC SPBAS 


8 . 


3. ANALYSIS METHODOLOGY 

•k-kirirtlrirkirklrkirttititiiitititiitifkirkitirk 


The objective of Task III was to determine differences that existed 
between actual winds and temperatures and those derived from the National 
Weather Service forecasts by airline flight planning systems. In Task I 
airline flight plans were used to determine differences that existed 
between the forecast and the verifying analysis as depicted by the 
NWS models, the Seven Level Primitive Equation Model and the Flattery 
Analysis Model, but this approach could not detect anomalies that may 
have been introduced by the flight planning systems or the NWS forecast 
model. Here, the forecast winds and temperatures from operational flight 
plans were compared directly to winds and temperatures observed by AIDS 
equipped aircraft and the results may represent the most accurate measure 
to date of the differences between expected wind/temperature fields and 
those actually encountered. 

3.1 D ATA SOURCES 

The data included in Task III were collected for NASA during 1979 by 
eight international airlines. Flight plans and AIDS data were collected 
from the seven airlines that use the BLUE Airlines flight planning 
system, and from RED Airlines. AIDS automatically collected on-board the 
aircraft and stored on magnetic tape, readings of position, altitude, 
temperature, wind velocity and time. Since AIDS was coupled to the 


pPC SPBAS 


9 . 


Inertial Navigation System (INS) and other on-board computers, the data 
gathered by AIDS were extremely accurate, 

Data collected by the airlines using the BLUE system were collected 
during the first four months of 1979 and for August through November, 
Data from RED Airlines flights were collected for the same months except 
that July was Included and November was not. However, no RED AIDS data 
were available for January, February and March, Therefore, the analysis 
of RED Airlines data was based on the five months - April, July, August, 
September and October. 

Data were collected by the eight airlines for some 250 days by some 80 
AIDS equipped aircraft. Since most of the airlines were principally 
North Atlantic operators, most of the AIDS data were for the North 
Atlantic, Middle Atlantic, Caribbean or Polar regions. However, some 
data were collected by flights through the Mid East or Far East. 

Flight plans for RED Airlines AIDS equipped flights were collected for 
NASA on magnetic tape throughout the year. Copies of all BLUE Airlines 
flight plans produced on the BLUE flight planning system were also 
collected. Raw AIDS data from the various airlines were collected, 
quality controlled and reformatted by a government agency as part of a 
global weather experiment. 


pPC SPEAS 


10 . 


3.2 DATA NORMALIZATION 

NASA specified that the Task III analysis should compare flight plan 
segments of 10 degrees of longitude with corresponding AIDS segments. 
Therefore, the principal data reduction task was the normalization of the 
flight plan and AIDS data in to common 10 degree segments. 

For most off-airways segments flight plan data were already presented 
in 10 degree segments. For these segments the forecast winds and 
temperatures could be read directly from the RED Airlines flight plans 
and derived from the wind data on the BLUE Airlines plans. These winds 
and temperatures represent the average values for the 10 degree segment 
as determined by the respective flicjht planning system. Since each of 
these airlines use a different algorithm for interpolation between data 
points, it is not likely that both would develop identical winds and 
temperatures for any given segments. The values they do develop, 
however, must be considered to be reasonably representati ve of the 
average segment winds and temperatures determined from the NWS forecast, 
and represent the techniques which are used by many of world's airlines. 

For airways segments identified on the flight plans by navigational aids 
or other checkpoints, 10 degree longitude segments were not clearly 
defined. Latitudes and longitudes locati'^g airways checkpoints were 
not included on many of the flight plans making it impossible to define a 
10 degree segment on airways. It may have been possible with manual 


SPSAS 



11 . 


intervention in the otherwise automated analysis process to define 
airways segments of approximately 10 degrees of longitude. However, due 
to such things as multiple use of the same checkpoint identification in 
different parts of the world and the highly variable length of airways 
segments, this analysis would have been very difficult and would have 
added little additional data since most of the segments were off airways. 

Normalizin^g the AIDS data to 10 degree segments was a more complex 
problem, AIDS data could not be compared directly, since AIDS reporting 
points did not coincide with flight plan checkpoints. Although both sets 
of data followed the same track (or else the flight was rejected as a 
mismatch), the AIDS data were captured every 13 or 14 minutes at random 
positions along the route. On a typical North Atlantic flight, there 
would be about 20 AIDS observations between SOW and lOW longitude. By 
contrast, the corresponding flight plan would include only six or seven 
checkpoints, normally at ten degree meridians and whole degrees of 
latitude. Before any meaningful data comparisons could be made, it was 
necessary to develop a technique to "map" the 'AIDS observations onto the 
flight plan checkpoints. 

After considering linear and geographic interpolation schemes similar to 
those used in the RED, BLUE and other airline flight planning systems it 
was decided that the AIDS wind direction, speed, temperature and latitude 
should be represented as continuous functions of longitude along the 


pro SP£AS 


12 . 


0 

flight path and representative segment values determined from these 
functions. 

An interpolation technique was therefore required to develop simulated 
AIDS data at the flight plan positions, i.e., ten degree meridians and 
whole degrees of latitude, for purposes of comparison. Normal curve fit 
routines, such as multiple regression or Box-Jenkins techniques, were not 
deemed suitable for this purpose; these techniques are generally used to 
forecast or extrapolate data outside the range of observations; however, 
this task required careful interpolation of data between observations. 
The Polynominal approximation is considered to be the best technique for 
this purpose. 

The AIDS data elements of interest (temperature, wind speed, and wind 
direction) all have the property that they are "continuous”, i.e., 
are gradually changing over time (or distance) and do not have discon- 
tinuities or gaps in the data. Temperatures, wind velocities and 
directions change gradually and do not jump from one value to another. 
For this type of data, cubic polynominals have been found to produce the 
best interpolations; cubic polynominals produce a continuously varying 
curve, or "spline", through the data observations in such a way as to 
minimize errors in curvature. This technique has been previously 
applied to meteorological conditions. 


CPC SPEAS 



13 . 


This "cubic spline" technique was applied to all AIDS flights \/ith 
at least 14 data reports, and for which a corresponding flight plan 
existed. Longitude was used as the independent variable in the spline 
develor.i(ient process, so that data (temperature, east-west and north-south 
component of the wind) could be derived for any longitude. These data 
were computed for every five degrees of longitude, and then a "1-2-1" 
weighting technique was applied to calculate the average value for a 
given ten degree segment so as to correspond to the segments on the 
flight plan. (The 1-2-1 weights are simply Romberg integration with two 
sub-intervals.) For example, the calculation of the average temperature 
for a segment from 30W to 40W longitude was based on single weighting of 
the derived temperatures at 30W and 40W combined with a double weighting 
of the 35W temperature. 

The following table of wind speeds and temperature, based on AIDS data 
for a trans-Atlantic flight, demonstrates the cubic spline technique: 


prC SPBAS 


14 . 


WIND SPEED (KTS) TEMPERATURE (-*C) 


Spline 

AIDS 

Lat/Lonq 

AIDS 

Spline 


34 

44N/80W 

47 


62 

45,59 

75W 

47,47 

47 

93 

65,86 

46N/70W 

47,48 

48 

102 

110 

65W 

48 

47 

68 

95 

49N/60W 

46 

43 

56 

60 

55W 

42 

43 

52 

-- 

51N/50W 

50,56 

50 

100 

80,110 

45W 

56 

56 

91 

112 

52N/40W 

55,57 

55 

76 

90,79 

35W 

58 

57 

53 

70 

53N/30W 

57,59 

57 

45 

51,46 

25W 

59 

59 

65 

49 

54N/20W 

57,51 

57 

64 

66,63 

15W 

50 

50,51 

84 

72 

55N/10W 

47,49 

47 

107 

87,119 

5W 

53 

49 

100 

107 

54N/OW 

54 

53 


These derived spline values were then subjected to the 1-2-1 weighting 
techniques to produce the following segment averages: 


44N/80W to 46N/70VI 
46N/70W to 49N/60W 
49N/60W to 51N/50W 
51N/50W to 52N/40W 
52N/40W to 53N/30W 
53N/30W to 54N/20W 
54N/20W to 55N/10W 


64 

kts, 

-47 

92 

kts. 

-46 

58 

kts, 

-45 

86 

kts, 

-54 

74 

kts, 

-57 

52 

kts, 

-59 

70 

kts. 

-51 


prc SPEAS 


15 . 


These calculated segment averages were then compared to the corresponding 
values on the computer flight plan. In accordance with standard meteoro- 
logical practice, all calculatirns involving wind were performed on the 
scalar components of a given wind velocity; these scalar components were 
then recombined to produce the appropriate wind vector. 

Having resolved the AIDS data into 10 degree segments, it was then 
necessary to match AIDS segments with the appropriate flight plans 
and verify that the routes, flight levels, and forecast times were 
comparable. 

The BLUE Airlines flight plans were collected by copying the outgoing 
queue of all flight plans produced by the system and periodically dumping 
the queue onto magnetic tape. Thus, these tapes included many plans that 
were not relevant to this analysis which had to be removed from the data 
during preliminary processing. A more significant problem resulted from 
the presence of more than one flight plan for the same flight. When 
several flight plans existed for the same flight number and date the 
plan that the aircraft actually followed had to be determined first by 
comparing the plans to the AIDS route. Of course, in some case the 
aircraft actually followed a route other than the one in any of the 
plans. In these cases data were salvaged for that portion of the route 
which did match. 


pro SPF.AS 


16 . 


A similar procedure was followed for the RED Airlines data. However, in 
this case only plans from AIDS flights were included on the tape. 

Having matched operational airline flight plans and AIDS flights a final 
check on flight level and routing was made. Flight plan segments with 
flight levels or checkpoints that did not match the AIDS data were 
discarded initially. However, when it was determined that a large number 
of segments was rejected, a second run was made which retained all flight 
plan segments whose flight levels were within plus or minus 2,000 feet of 
the AIDS flight levels. 


% 


pCC SP£AS 


17 . 


4. FINDINGS 
★*****★*★★*★*■**★ 

The results of the comparisons between the AIDS data and the corre- 
sponding flight plan segments based on the operational forecast are 
presented in this section. Results from plans developed by the BLUE and 
RED systems are presented separately as are findings by region and 
direction of flight. 

4.1 BLUE AIRLINES FINDINGS 

In the initial run, matching data from AIDS flights and BLUE flight plans 
were found for 1,148 segments. Data for approximately 11,000 AIDS 
segments were collected by the seven airlines using the BLUE Airline 
flight planning system. Therefore, matching data were found for some 10 
percent of the segments. 

Based upon a sampling of the data it was determined that about 16 percent 
of the segments could not be matched because the AIDS flight levels or 
routings were not the same as the planned routings or flight levels. The 
remaining 74 percent of AIDS segments could not be matched to flight plan 
segments because a corresponding flight plan could not be found. It was 
eventually determined that the BLUE flight planning system output queue 
was not dumped onto the magnetic tape frequently enough and flight plans 
were lost during 24 to 48 hour periods. It is estimated that this 


PPC SPBAS 


18 . 


resulted In the loss of up to 50 percent of the otherwise valid segment 
comparisons. 

The regional and directional distribution of the 1,148 valid segment 
comparisons was as follows: 


North Atlantic Eastbound 394 
North Atlantic Westbound 696 
Polar Eastbound 4 
Polar Westbound 13 
Mid-Atlantic Eastbound 9 
Mid-Atlantic Westbound 32 


As in Tasks I and II, the results of the segment comparisons were 
presented in the form of histograms which depict the number of occur- 
rences of a given temperature or wind difference between the flight plan 
segments, and the AIDS derived segments. These data are included in 
Appendix A to this volume of the report for both BLUE and RED Airlines 
results. The data in the Appendix present the findings fay direction of 
flight and region, and include the algebraic mean of the differences as 
well as the variance, standard deviation and 90 percent confidence limits 
for the temperature difference, the wind direction difference and the 
wind speed difference, the difference in speed between the component of 
the forecast wind parallel to the actual wind and the actual wind, the 
similar difference for the component perpendicular to the actual wind 


pPC SPEAS 



19 . 


(the ciross-coinponent), and the magnitude of the vector difference. The 
RMS of the Vector Error is also included for each region, airline and 
direction of flight group at the end of Appendix A, 

Figure 4-1 summarizes the BLUE Airlines results by region and direction 
of flight. The results are presented in several forms so that they 
may be meaningful to the widest audience. It was believed that, tradi- 
tionally, pilots and others concerned with flight planning refer to wind 
"forecast error" as the differences between the forecast and observed 
wind, as defined by the differences between the two scalar quantities 
wind directions and wind speed. Thus, if the forecast wind were 290 
degrees at 100 kts. and the observed wind were 270 degrees at 120 kts., 
one would say the "forecast error" was 20 degrees and 20 kts. Using this 
definition of "forecast error" the mean forecast error for all segments 
was found to be 28.5 degrees and 13.8 kts for the wind and 2.9’C for the 
temperature. 

Results according to the above definition are identified in Figure 4-1 as 
the "Algebraic Differences" which include the algebraic sign of the 
average differences between the forecast value and the observed value, 
and the "Absolute Value of Differences" which eliminate the sign or 
directional nature of the differences. 


SPEAS 


TASK III RESULTS 

AVERAGE SEGMENT DIFFERENCES BETWEEN FORECAST AND ACTUAL 

BLUE AIRLINE DATA 


20 


u 


s 


< 

a 

£ 


§ 

_i 

o 

Q. 


C_) 

o 

CM o m 

00 o o 

o 

o 

a> 

in 


p-p 

ja 

» • « 

• « » 

• 

• 

• 

9 

• 

h- 

4-) 

^ cn CM 

oi ro CO 

rv 

CO 


cn 

1 


(/) 

1 1 1 

CM pH 

f>H 

1 

CM 

cn 

f 


■a 

c 

3 

o 

jO 

+J 

<A 

0 ) 

s 


•a 

c 

3 

o 

XI 

4 ^ 

l/t 

LU 


•o 

R 

3 

0 
X) 
4-» 
I/) 

01 

3 


•n 

c 


o 

ja 


XJ 

c 

3 


(U 

3 


T3 

C 


lo <si" 
• • • 
«• 00 c\j 

I I t 


o> o o 

• « • 

o in i-H 

I I 


o >cr ^ 

• • • 

a 

l—H I— I -f' 

I I 


CT> ' 3 ' r'. 

• • • 

nH 


I ) 


o o o 

• » * 

cr> CO (“H 

m r~i I 

'i* I 


m CO o> 

• • • 

00 ro «M 
CNJ tH 


00 in 

« • < 

lO Ol pH 

in 


o> ■C 
• • » 
r*. ^ c\j 

m pH 


m 


m 

o 

f-H 

I 


00 

r>. 

rH 

I 


in 

PO 


(VJ 

in 

CM 


in 

03 


03 

* 

CM 

I 


CM 

CM 


m 

m 


n 


a 

CM 




m 

fM 


fo ro CM 


ro ID CM 

^ f— H 


o n m 

• • • 

Cn CTl pH 
O pH 


CO 

r** 

in 

o 

• 

• 

• 

• 

CTl 

00 

m 

pH 

pH 

1 

CM 

cn 


ro 


«R 

CO 


in 

I 


in 


in 

ro 


ro 


CO 

ro 


r — 

q; 

o 

V CO CO 

o CO a 

ID 


CM 

CH 

(d 

o 

XI 

• • p 

« « p 

• 

• 

• 

S 

■M 

z 

4-» 

in 00 CM 

CM m CO 

CO 


ID 

cn 

(d 


in 

ta 

LU 

1 t 1 

CM iH 

pH 

1 

1 

CM 

cn 

O 

<u 


in 

LU 

CD 


S- 

•P" 

tu 

31 

_J 

CO 




Q£ 

^ 







1/1 

UJ 

1/1 







OJ 


(U 

_l 




o 

</l 

(U 

LU 

0 ) 

lU 





tiJ 

t- 

NM 

S- 





in 

CJ 

oi 

o 

O) 

_1 — ' 

cn — > 

z in 

z 

•p* 

Z 

<Up~. 


QJ— * 

C in 

tn in 

O -u 

o 

in 

UJ 

■a in 

Uu 

•a 1/1 

Z 4 H 

O -M 

1 — o 

z 

>1 

Qi 


O 

^ « 

«c o 

Z O 

o c 

z 

«— 

LU 

o o 


o o 

Q. R 

CO C 

lU JC 

LU 

Id 

u* 

C CO 

LU 

c c« 


z 

> w 


R 

u. 

O ^ '-P' 


O ^'—p 

2 C p 

z—- 


z 

•a: 


•f— 


» - 


>— 1 

Lu lU 

o 


o 

■M dJ 

< 

■H 0 ) 

1 — 

1 — 

O O 

h— 

CJ 


0 - 0 '- 

> 

U -O J- 

lU z 

tu z 

z 

(-} 

z 


<U <U 3 


OJ OJ 3 

CO LU 

CJ LU 

LU lU 

LU 

z 


U CU •!-» 

UJ 

S. CU 4 H 

z z 

z z 

a z 

> 


< 

•p- Q. <d 

H" 

•f- a. Id 

LU O 

LU O 

3 LU 


• • 

or 

o cn 1 . 


a in o 

z o. 

OS 9 s 

1 — Lu 

Lu 

(U 

CQ 

(U 


OJ 

LU s: 

LU Z 

•H lu 

O 

u 

ui 

■a "o ca. 

o 

- 0-0 0 . 

u. o 

LL. O 

Z IH 


u 

CD 

c C E 

Ln 

C R E 

Ll. CO 

LU O 

CO a 

tn 

3 


*|p" *p» tu 

CQ 

»p" »r* OJ 

—H 

PH 

■a: 

z 

O 

< 

3 3 1 — 

< 

3 3 1 — 

o 

C 3 


z 

tn 


CPC SPEAS 


21 . 


Using data from Task I on average North Atlantic flight times and fuel 
burns, it was determined that if the wind were always from the direction 
with maximum impact on the direction of flight this error results in fuel 
burn and time penalties of up to 15 minutes and 2,835 kg of fuel for a 
8747 flight. This fuel burn penalty, or potential savings, amounts to 
3.6 percent of the fuel burn for the flight. 

However, this finding may be misleading if taken out of context because, 
in reality, elimination of the forecast error would result in a new route 
selection for the flight on the improved forecast which would maximize 
the savings. In this analysis the route is the same on the AIDS observed 
weathfar as on the forecast weather. 

While the presentation of "forecast errors" as defined above will be 
meaningful to some, if not most readers, it is not mathematically correct 
since the wind is a vector and one cannot refer to the independently 
determined differences (or error) between the scalar components as the 
difference between the vectors. Therefore, in order that the results 
presented here may be related to other mathematically sound forecast 
verification data that may be more meaningful to meteorologists, the 
other quantities presented in Figure 4-1 were determined. 

It is interesting to consider the meaning of the findings regarding the 
mean of the algebraic differences. Reference to Figure 4-1 shows that 


Pi'C SPEAS 


22 . 


for both directions, and for nearly all combinations of region and 
forecast parameter especially on the North Atlantic where there Is 
a substantial ly higher number of observations, all of the means are 
negative. Since these differences are obtained by subtracting the AIDS 
derived value from the flight plan value, the negative numbers mean 
that the AIDS values were larger, on the average. Since the AIDS data 
represent the actual and the flight plans represent the forecast, these 
data show that wind speeds are higher than forecast (again confirming the 
findings from the other tasks) and temperatures are warmer than forecast 
on the average. Regarding wind direction, negative differences mean the 
forecast wind Is from a lower azimuthal direction than the actual wind, 
or In other words, considering that the average wind direction should 
be from 270 degrees, negative differences suggest actual winds more 
northwesterly than forecast. 

4.2 SUPPLEMENTAL BLUE AIRLINES FINDINGS 

Since so many segments were rejected because a corresponding flight 
plan could not be found in the BLUE Airlines data. It was decided that 
the analysis would be rerun with a relaxation of the criteria for 
matching segments. It was assumed that, if a substantially higher 
number of segments could be Included in the sample without changing the 
result significantly, the sample was large enough in the first place to 
represent the real world and the loss of some of the BLUE Airlines data 
did not distort the findings. 


pro s;>ws 



23. 


For the reanalysis run the requirement that segment flight levels match 
was changed to a requirement that the AIDS flight segment be within plus 
or minus 2,000 feet of the flight plan segment. A match was still 
required on the beginning and end points of the segment. Under these 
conditions matches were found for 1,788 segments distributed as follows: 


North Atlantic Eastbound 

581 

North Atlantic Westbound 

1,142 

Polar Eastbound 

4 

Polar Westbound 

14 

Mid-Atlantic Eastbound 

12 

Mid-Atlantic Westbound 

35 


A summary of the mean of the differences of the absolute values is 
presented in Figure 4-2 for each region and direction along with the 
differences between these data and the data from Figure 4-1 which used 
the more stringent flight level matching criterion. 

The differences of 0.5 degrees on wind direction, 0.2 kts. for wind 
speed, and 0.3*C for temperature are negligible. 

As might be expected when more comparisons from different flight levels 
are included, the averages of the algebraic differences also changed, but 
by relatively small amounts. For the North Atlantic region, each of the 
forecast parameters had larger negative differences with the larger 


PPC SPEAS 


24 . 


Figure 4-2 

TASK III RESULTS 
SEGMENT FORECAST ERRORS 
BLUE AIRLINE DATA 


MEAN OF THE ABSOLUTE VALUES OF DIFFERENCES BETWEEN FORECAST FLIGHT PLAN 

SEGMENTS AND AIDS DERIVED SEGMENTS 
{RELAXED FLIGHT LEVEL MATCHING CRITERION) 


WIND 

TEMPERATURE 

Direction (deq) Speed (kts) 



Eastbound North Atlantic 

22.8 

15.5 

3.4 

Westbound North Atlantic 

30.7 

13.3 

3.2 

Eastbound Polar 

0 

0 

0 

Westbound Polar 

42,6 

15.7 

2.4 

Eastbound Mid Atlantic 

48.8 

13.5 

2.4 

Westbound Mid Atlantic 

54 

9.4 

1.5 

All Segments 

29.0 

14.0 

3.2 

DIFFERENCES BETWEEN ABOVE 
(FIG. 4-2 

VALUES AND MATCHED FLIGHT LEVEL 
DATA MINUS FIG. 4-1 DATA) 

VALUES 


Eastbound North Atlantic 

0.8 

0.2 

0.4 

Westbound North Atlantic 

0.9 

0.3 

0.2 

Eastbound Polar 

0 

0 

0 

Westbound Polar 

0,7 

0.6 

0.2 

Eastbound Mid Atlantic 

9.1 

0.9 

0.3 

Westbound Mid Atlantic 

2.8 

0 

0 

All Segments 

0.5 

0.2 

0.3 

Source: PRC Speas Analysis 

of BLUE Airline data. 




PPC SPEAS 


25 . 


number of observations, implying that the forecast errors were larger, 
which would be expected v/hen different flight levels are compared. 

4.3 RED AIRLINES FINDINGS 

Matching AIDS data and flight plan data were found for 575 segments which 
were included in the statistical analysis. This represents 22 percent of 
the AIDS derived segments, 

A sample of six day's data was reviewed manually to determine why no 
matching segments were found for the remaining 78 percent of AIDS 
segments. Based on this sample: 

• 28 percent were airways segments; 

f 16 percent were at different flight levels; 

• 5 percent had different flight numbers and could not be identified 
positively with the AIDS flight; 

• 7 percent were on a different route; 

• 22 percent had no corresponding operational flight plan for the same 
date and flight number. (The possibility that these flight plans 
had the wrong flight date was checked but the flights did not exist 
on the preceding or following day either.) 

The regional and directional distribution of the 575 segment comparisons 
was as follows: 


PPC SPEAS 


26 . 


North Atlantic Eastbound 165 
North Atlantic Westbound 327 
Polar Eastbound 36 
Polar Westbound 47 


The RED Airlines results are summarized in Figure 4-3. As with the BLUE 
Airlines results, more detailed data are included in Appendix A. 

The forecast errors indicated by the RED Airlines data are quite similar 
to those from the BLUE Airlines data, The average segment temperature 
error is almost identical at 3"C. The wind speed error is slightly 
smaller at 12.9 knots. However, the average wind direction error is 
nearly ten degrees less at 19,6 degrees. The RMS of the vector error for 
the RED data was 24.0 and the magnitude of the vector' difference was 20.2 
kts. 

While the data in Figure 4-3 confirm that the magnitude of the forecast 
errors are comparable to those found in the analysis of the BLUE Airlines 
data, consideration of the algebraic differences shows some inconsistency 
between the findings for the two airlines. 

The negative wind speed differences imply that actual wind speeds are 
normally higher than forecast - a finding consistent with the BLUE 
Airlines data and with the findings throughout the other tasks in this 
study. The predominantly positive temperature differences imply actual 


pPC SPBAS 


TASK III RESULTS 

AVERAGE SEGMENT DIFFERENCES BETWEEN FORECAST AND ACTUAL 

RED AIRLINE DATA 


27 


i 

I 


0 CO Lf) 

moo 

0 

o> 

CSi 

0 

• « « 

• 4 • 

• 

• 

• 

« 

1— 1 UT r-t 

0 CNJ fO 

CO 

0 

0 


1 t + 

fH 1 — 1 

r 

1 

CNJ 

CVJ 


q: 

< 


c 

3 

o 

A 

■M 

I/) 

(U 

3: 


o 

o. 


•a 

c 

o 

J3 


c/> 

fO 

LU 


cvi rr 

• • • 

C\J O 
I I + 


00 r*. r». 

j • * 

m Lo o 

I I I 


03 O O 

• • * # 

^ CM CM 

CM ^ fH 

I 


CO KT CO 

• « * • 

CM CM CM CO 

CM 1-4 I 


0 

0 

CO 

• 

4 

4 

CVJ 

a\ 

CNJ 

1 


CO 


m 

rH 

00 

4 

* 

4 

0 

00 

CO 

-t* 

1—4 

CM 




cc 

o 

2 : 


•a 

c 

3 

a 

XI 

4 -) 

i/> 

OJ 

=e 


TO 

c 

3 

O 

A 

•M 

</l 

(d 

ixi 


0 CM rx. 

IX. LjO 0 

LO 

r— 1 


C71 

*44 

• 4 4 

4 

4 

4 

4 

CNJ ^ fH 

f-H fO 


ro 

00 

tH 

\ 1 ^ 

CNJ 

1 

1 


CM 


0 

LO ro t-h 

CM 



LD 

* • « 

4 4* 

• 

• 

t « 

4 

1-4 ta CM 

cn tn ro 

cn 



00 

+ 1 + 

i-H 

\ 

+ 

CNJ 

CNI 


I 


i 

I 

I 

i 

I 

) 

'i 


f 


t/i 

LU 

C-J 

3= 

LU 




Q3 







I/I 

LU 

to 






OJ 

LU 

0 ) 

—1 




00 

CD 

LU 

4U 

LU 




LU 

U 


u 



jii— . 


CU 

C31 

C3 

01 

_J.-“ . 

00 —. 

Z i/l 

z 

z 

OJ — . 


OJ ^ 

«C to 

00 to 

0 u> 

C3 

LU 

•a 4/1 

Lu 

•a to 

css u> 

0 4J 

1 — 0 

Z 

0 £ 

1—^ lU ^—1 

0 

4<J . 

< 0 

Q£. 0 

OJ c 

z 

LU 

0 u 


0 CJ 

43u C 

OJ C 

LU 

LU 

U. 

c c« 

LU 

C C a 


JC 

0 *.— < 


LU 

0 .iC'-' 

3 

0 wi 

zrx— ' 

Z — ' 


Z 

1 — I 

*1— 


* 1 — * 

1—1 

UH 

Lu LU 

0 

4=> 

u> OJ 

«C 

+J <U 

1 — 

1 — 

0 OJ 

L— 


0 T3 i. 

z> 

<J T3 U 

LU 3 

LU Z 

z 

0 

<.,} 

OJ (U a 


(U 01 3 

0 LU 

OJ LU 

LU LU 

LU 

»~4 

u OJ ui 

LU 

U OJ u> 

3 Z 

z z 

a Q£ 

3» 

«C 

* 1 — Q, 40 

|.i. 

• 1 - Q, Id 

LU 0 

LU 0 

3 LU 


03 

a 00 u 


a oo s- 

cd ^ 

Z a. 

1- Lu 

Lu 

03 

V 

—1 

0 ) 

LU £ 

LU s: 

*-x Lu 

0 

lU 

TO T3 Q. 

0 

•3 TO Q. 

Lu 0 

Lu 0 

Z >-< 


C3 

C C E 

00 

C 3 E 

LU LJ 

Lu OJ 

00 0 

1/1 

_J 

•r~ 'r— <U 

ea 

•f— *r- S 


•-< 

< 


«c 

3 3 1— 

c 

3 3 1- 

43 


z: 

Z 


crc SPBAS 


Source: PRC Analysis of RED Airline Data 



28 . 


temperatures colder than forecast and, as discussed earlier, positive 
wind direction differences mean winds from a lower azimuthal heading or 
more southwesterly than forecast while negative differences denote winds 
more northwesterly than forecast, or from a higher azimuthal heading. 
These data suggest two incongruous conclusions. First, even though 
both RED and BLUE agree that the average segment temperature forecast is 
in error by 3*C, one airline consistently finds the forecast temper- 
atures too warm while the other finds them too cold. Second, wind 
direction forecast errors tend to be dependent on the direction of 
flight, according to the RED Airlines data. 

Since the average direction errors are so small, the second conclusion 
may be merely a statistical quirk. If it is not, it cannot be explained 
by any information that was available to PRC Speas and it is suspected 
that it is the result of the weather data interpolation scheme used by 
RED Airlines. Similarly, tnere is no explanation for the BLUE Airlines' 
tendency toward larger and more northwesterly wind direction errors and 
it too must be the result of an inherent feature in the flight planning 
system. 

Regarding the temperature errors, no explanation can be offered for the 
inconsistency and these must certainly be the result of the flight 
planning system's processing algorithm. 


pPC SPEAS 


29 . 


4.4 SUPPLEMENTAL RED AIRLINES FINDINGS 

Although the supplemental run was conducted primarily because of the lost 
BLUE Airlines data, the RED data were also included in the rerun with the 
relaxed flight level criterion, 

In the rerun 707 additional matching segments were found bringing the 
total to 1,282. These segments were distributed geographically as 
follows : 


North Atlantic Eastbound 358 
North Atlantic Westbound 736 
Polar Eastbound 79 
Polar Westbound 109 


The results of the analysis with the supplemental data are summarized in 
Figure 4-4. 

As with the BLUE Airlines data, the 120 percent increase in the number of 
segments compared did not change the results appreciably. The average 
wind direction error changed by 1.9 degrees, the speed changed by 0.4 
kts. and the temperature changed by 0.4*C. 


CrO SPEAS 


30 . 


Figure 4-4 


TASK III RESULTS 
SEGMENT FORECAST ERRORS 
RED AIRLINE DATA 


MEAN OF THE ABSOLUTE VALUES OF DIFFERENCES BETWEEN FORECAST FLIGHT PLAN 

SEGMENTS AND AIDS DERIVED SEGMENTS 
(RELAXED FLIGHT LEVEL MATCHING CRITERION) 


WIND 

TEMPERATURE 

Direction (deg) Speed (kts) 

m 


Eastbound North Atlantic 

16 

16.4 

3.6 

Westbound North Atlantic 

22.8 

12.0 

3.4 

Eastbound Polar 

22.0 

10.5 

2.8 

Westbound Polar 

30.1 

13.6 

3.3 

All Segments 

21.5 

13.3 

3.4 


DIFFERENCES BETWEEN ABOVE 
(FIG. 4-4 

VALUES AND MATCHED FLIGHT LEVEL 
DATA MINUS FIG. 4-3 DATA) 

VALUES 

Eastbound North Atlantic 

2.5 

1.1 

0.5 

Westbound North Atlantic 

l.I 

0.5 

0.4 

Eastbound Polar 

0.3 

1.9 

0 

Westbound Polar 

5.3 

0.4 

0.6 

All Segments 

1.9 

0.4 

0.4 


Source: PRC Speas Analysis of RED Airline data. 


SPEAS 


APPENDIX A 

FINDINGS BY REGION, DIRECTION OF FLIGHT, AND AIRLINE 


SPSAS 


I 

I 


Tf » « » 

»**»? 7 * 

Tf«4Hf«* 

w*»444t« 

?{ 45 if 4f {} w # 

45 44 55 44 44 45 45 
44 45 44 45 45 45 44 
^ ^ ^ ^ ^ 

44 44 44 44 45 45 44 44 

45 45 44 45 45 44 44 44 
45» 45 45 44 44 45 44 45 

45 45 45 45 * 45 44 44 45 45 * 

45 45 44 45 # 45 44 44 45 45 45 
45 44 45 45 fi« 45 45 45 *45 
44 44 * 44 44 45 45 44 44 4444 44 

44 45 4 5 * 45 44 44 44 44 44 45 45 45 

45 45 ***45 44 45* **45 45* * 
*44****.**ff»*»#****44 ft 


NUMBER OF OCCURRENCES BY DIFFERENCE 

Temperature Difference in Degress Centigrade 

Operational Segments MINUS AIDS Derived Segments 

MEAN = -2.27664975 • 

VARIANCE s 9.91585072 

MEAN (ABSOLUTE DIF.)= 2.99746193 
STANDARD DEVIATION = 3.14894438 

90? CONFIDENCE LIMITS -7.45666326 TO 2.90336376 

TOTAL OCCURRENCES = 394 

CARRIER: BLUE DIRECTION: Eastbound REGION: North Atlantic 

SPEAS 


80 


! 

A-2 

78 


1 , 


76 


1 


74 


1 


72 


1 


70 


1 

1 

! 

68 


1 

' 

66 


t 


64 


1 


62 


1 

1 


60 


1 

1 


58 


1 


56 


1 


54 


1 


52 


i 

1 


50 


t 

1 


48 


1 


46 


1 

1 


44 


1 

1 

J 

42 


1 

1 

40 


1 

1 


38 


1 

1 

i 

1 

36 


1 

1 

.1 

-1 

34 


1 

t 

32 


1 * 


30 


1 ^ 

1 

28 



1 

26 



•i 

1 

24 




22 



i 

20 




18 




16 




14 


S * «• ft 44 * * » 


12 


4r» ft* 


10 


» ft* ftftftftftftftftft 

‘I 

8 


ft ft ftftSftftftftftftftftft *»* 


6 


ft ftftft ftftftftftftftftftftftftftftftftftftft 

1 

4 


ft ft ftftftftftftftftftftftftftftftftftftftftftftftftftft ft ft ftft 


2 

* 

ft’4ftft***ftftftftftft»ftftftftft«*ft*ft»ftftftftftftftftftftftft*ftft* ftftft* ft 

* 



I 

+ 

1 

1 

1 

1 

+ 

1 

t 

1 

1 

+ 

t 

1 

1 

1 

+ 

1 

1 

1 

1 

+ 

1 

1 

1 

+ 

1 

1 

1 

1 

+ 

t 

1 

I 

1 

+ 

1 

1 

1 

1 

+ 

t 

i 

9 

1 

+ 

1 

- - - ^ 


-90 

-60 -30 0 +30 +60 

+90 ' 


NUMBER OF OCCURRENCES BY DIFFERENCE 


Vlind Direction Difference in Degrees 

Operational Segments MINUS AIDS Derived Segments 

MEAN r -5.35279188 

VARIANCE = 1076.98468 

MEAN (ABSOLUTE DIF.)= 22,0228426 
STANDARD DEVIATION = 32.8174447 

90% CONFIDENCE LIMITS -59.3374885 TO 48.6319047 

TOTAL OCCURRENCES = 394 

CARRIER: BLUE DIRECTION: Eastbound REGION: North Atlantic 


SPEAS 


i 


A-3 


80 

78 

76 

74 

72 

70 

68 

66 

64 

62 

60 

58 

56 

54 

52 

50 

H8 

46 

44 

42 

40 

38 

36 

34 

32 

30 

28 

26 

24 

22 

20 

18 

16 

14 

12 

10 

8 

6 

4 

2 


I 

I 

I 






I 

1 

1 

t 

I 

I 

I 

! 

I 

U It £ V. 
n n It n 

« » » » * W 

« 

» *»««*«* K- »«■« » 

if « K * 

* »*»»*** <HS « i-f «•»« K »»» * 

ft « *ft*ftft»«ft-3Kv‘ftftft«ft**ftttft 
ft ft ftftftftftftftftftftftftftftftftftftftftftftftft ft 
ft ft ftftftftft ftftftftftftftftftttftSftftftftftftftftftSftftftft 

— I--.}.-- — +-««-+_ 

-60 -30 0 +30 


ft 

+ _+„ — + 

+60 +90 


HUMBER OF OCCURREHCES BY DIFFERENCE 


Wind Speed Difference in Knots 

Operational Segments MINUS AIDS Derived Segments 


MEAN = 
VARIANCE = 
MEAN (ABSOLUTE DIF.)= 
STANDARD DEVIATION = 
90? CONFIDENCE LIMITS 
TOTAL OCCURRENCES = 


-8.27226463 
351 -0989 
15.3053435 
18.7376333 

-39-0956714 

393 


TO 22.5511421 


REGION: North Atlantic 


CARRIER: BLUE DIRECTION: Eastbound 


3PEA5 


80 

78 

76 

74 

72 

70 

68 

66 

64 

62 

60 

58 

56 

54 

52 

50 

48 

4b 

44 

42 

40 

38 

36 

34 

32 

30 

2b 

26 

24 

22 

20 

1b 

16 

14 

12 

10 

8 

6 

4 

2 




» 

« 




« 

««| 

«««««« 
««««««« 

««««««««« 

» »»*«*»*»««#«*»***## 


H 

* 


'+■ 


-90 


-60 


+■ 


■+■ 


■+■ 




■+■ 




-30 


+30 


4^0 


+90 


NUMBER OF OCCURRENCES BY DIFFERENCE 


Cross-Component Difference in Knots 

Operational Segments MINUS AIDS Derived Segments 

MEAN = -4.39694656 

VARIANCE = 478,081619 

MEAN (ABSOLUTE DIF.)s 15.8676845 
STANDARD DEVIATION = 21.8650776 
90% CONFIDENCE LIMITS -40.3649993 

TOTAL OCCURRENCES = 393 


TO 31.5711062 


CARRIER; BLUE DIRECTION; Eastbound REGION: North Atlantic 


A-4 




80 

78 

76 

7^ 

78 

70 

68 

66 

64 

62 

60 

58 

56 

54 

52 

50 

48 

48 

44 

42 

40 

38 

36 

34 

32 

30 

28 

26 

24 

22 

20 

18 

16 

14 

12 

10 

8 

6 

4 

2 


« 

a 


* 

* 


w 
« 

* « 

*** 

«« »«««#««« 
«««««««««««»« 

««»«««««««««»««««»« 

« « i(4( » § 


» 

« 

K 


* 

* 


'+■ 


+• 


-90 


'+■ 


-60 




•+• 


+- 


'+• 


+30 


« 


+60 


+90 


NUMBER OF OCCURRENCES BY DIFFERENCE 


A-5 


Parallel-Component Difference in Knots 


Operational Segments MINUS AIDS Derived Segments 


MEAN = 
VARIANCE s 
MEAN (ABSOLUTE DIF.)= 
STANDARD DEVIATION = 
90% CONFIDENCE LIMITS 
TOTAL OCCURRENCES = 


•13.6259542 
469.460599 
18.4249364 
21 .6670395 

-49.2682341 

393 


TO 22.0163258 


CARRIER: BLUE DIRECTION: Eastbound REGION: North Atlantic 


SPSAS 


A-6 


80 

1 

78 

1 

76 

1 

74 

1 

72 

1 

70 

1 

68 

1 

66 

1 

54 

1 

62 

I 

60 

1 

58 

1 

56 

1 

54 

! 

52 

1 

50 

1 

48 

1 

4b 

1 

44 

1 

42 

1 

40 

1 

38 

1 * 

36 

1 

34 

1 «««« 

32 

{ «««« 

30 

j ******* 

28 

I 

26 

{ 

24 

1 «««««««« 

22 

1 

20 

1 »«««««««» 

18 

1 «^««««««« 

16 

1 »««««««««« 

14 

!«««««««{««« » 

12 

1 ********** * * 

10 

1 ««««««#««««« * 

8 

1 »««{(««««««««« ** 

6 

1 «« » 

4 

1 «««««««««»«««««««»« * *** 

2 

m»\.rnu„«mni\w,wm ii ■■■■■,|. ■ ■ ■ - ,1 ■ ■ .ii ■ , 1 ■l■^■ilt . i— 


—90 “60 “30 0 +30 +60 +90 
NUMBER OF OCCURRENCES BY DIFFERENCE 


Magn3.T:ude of V-actor Difference in I&iota 

Operational Segments MINUS AIDS Derived Segments 

MEAN = 26.2213741 

VARIANCE = 445.902648 

MEAN (ABSOLUTE DIF.)= 26.2213741 
STANDARD DEVIATION = 21.1164071 

90% confidence LIMITS -8.51511563 TO 60.9578637 

TOTAL OCCURRENCES = 393 

CARRIER: BLUE DIRECHONi' Eastbound REGION: North Atlantic 


SPEAS 


5 


A-7 


H8 

1 


116 

1 

■1 

11N 

1 

!i 

112 


ij 

no 

1 


108 

1 

J 

106 

1 

'[ 

104 

1 


102 

t 

■ 

100 

t« 


98 

ff« 1 


96 

4i« 1 


QiJ 

1 — 

ij 

92 

t« « 1 


90 

iff 1 

; 

88 

t«t 1 


86 

*•« 1 


84 

• «i * 


82 

ti»4« 


80 

l«4«« 


78 

I ttf« 


76 

«f « »t 


74 



72 

»4f 


70 

*•« Bl 

1 

68 

«« ^ 


66 

Mff 4 ..'ff 

' 

64 

4t«»» 


62 

f ft t»« 


60 

«»««# 


58 

ftf 44 » 


56 

44444 


54 

4S444 


52 

444444 


50 

1414444 


48 



46 



44 

44441444 


42 

44444444 


40 



38 



36 

»«l**>*« 


34 

44444444 


32 


• 

30 



28 

11444444 


26 

444444444 


24 



22 

4444444444 


20 

feitieeci-t 


18 



16 

i«t«f i»»»« 


14 



12 



10 


* 

8 

ai««< 


6 



4 



2 

« If tl«4«f 

; 


+— 

-30 


-20 


-10 


0 


4-10 


4-20 


4-30 


NUHBSa OF OCCURBEHCES BY DIFFERENCE 

f 

Temperature Difference In Degress Centigrade ‘ 

Operational Segments MINUS AIDS Derived Segments 

MEAN = -2.53«i»8276 

VARIANCE = 7.70283393 

MEAN {ABSOLUTE 0IF.)s 2.9655172'! 

STANDARD DEVIATION s 2.77539798 

90 S CONFIDENCE LIMITS -7.100012«3 TO 2.0310!l692 

TOTAL OCCURRENCES s 696 SP6AS ; 

... if 


A-8 


80 

78 

76 

7^» 

72 

70 

68 

66 

64 

62 

60 

53 
56 

54 
52 
50 
48 
46 
44 
42 
40 
38 
36 
34 
32 
30 
28 
26 
24 
22 
20 
18 
16 
14 
12 
10 

8 

6 

4 


a 


•K 

rt 

« * 

^ ft w tJ # ^ 

« «««» w 

»«#*«««* 

•S « » * « w «■ ir 

« * » « a ii a » « aft,}** a 
sa aaaaaaaaaaaaa* 
a a a a a a a a a a a a a a a a 
*a aaaaaaaaaaasaa 
aaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaa a 
a aaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaa* 
a a aa aaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaa 

r, a a a a a a a a a a a a « a a a a a a a a « a a a a a 

aa a a aaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaasaa a a 
a a a a a aa a a a a.a a a a a a a a a a a a a a a a a a a a a a a a a a a a a a a a a a a a a a a a a 


-90 


-60 


-30 


+30 


+60 


NUMBER OF OCCURRENCES BY DIFFERENCE 


VJind Direction Difference in Degrees 
Operational Segments MINUS AIDS Derived Segments 


MEAN = 
VARIANCE = 
MEAN (ABSOLUTE DIF.)= 
STANDARD DEVIATION = 
90? CONFIDENCE LIMITS 
TOTAL OCCURRENCES = 


-4.16522989 

2226.48276 

29.8146552 

47.1856202 

-81.7855752 

696 


TO 


CARRIER: bLJE DIRECTION: Westbound 


aa 

a a a a a a a 

-+- + 

+90 


73.4551154 


REGION: North Atlantic 


SPEAS 


A-9 


80 



* I 

78 



» 1 

76 



* 1 

74 



» i 

72 



» I 

70 



* 1 

68 



*if 1 

66 



j 

64 




62 



ff « ft 1 

60 



# j 

58 



xftft j 

56 



1 

54 



# ft ft 1 ft 

52 



ftftft j ft 

50 



ftftft { ft 

48 



Sftft j ft 

46 



ft ftftft j ftft 

44 



ft ft ft ft ft ft ft 

42 



ftftftftftftftft 

40 



ftftftftftftftft 

38 



ftftftftftftftft 

36 



ftftftftftftftft 

34 



ftftftftftftftftft 

32 



ft ft ft ft ft ft ft ft ft 

30 



ftftftftftftftftfiftft 

28 



^ X 4 y. y. £ 

26 



ftftftftftftftftftftft* 

24 



ftft ft ftftft ft ftft ft ftft 

22 



ft ftftftftftftftftftftftftft 

20 



ft ft ft ft ft ft ft ft ft ft ft ft ft ft 

18 



ftftft ft ftftftftftftftftftftft* 

16 



?j ft ft ft ft ft ft ft ft ft ft ft ft ft ft ft 

14 



ftftftftft ftft ftftftftftftftftft 

12 



ft ft ft ft ft ft ft ft ft ft ft ft 5 ft ft ft 

10 



******* ft ft ftftftftftftftft 

8 




6 



S ft ft ft ft ft ft * ft ft ft ft ft ft ft * * ft ft ft ft ft 

4 



ft ft ft ftft ft ft ft ft ft ft ft ft ft ft ft ft ft * ft ft ft 

2 



ft ft ft ft ft ft ft ft ft ft ft ft ft ft ft ft ft ft ft ft ft ft ft ft 



■-+ — 

1 

+ 

1 

1 

1 

+ 

1 

1 

i 

1 

+ 

1 

1 

1 

1 

+ 

t 

1 

1 

1 

+ 

1 

1 

1 

1 

+ 


-90 


-60 -30 0 


+30 +60 

HUMBER OF OCCURREMCES BY DIFFERENCE 

Vlind Speed Difference in Knots 

Operational Segments MINUS AIDS Derived Segments 

MEAN = - 8.96839081 

VARIANCE = 211.024863 

MEAN (ABSOLUTE DIF.)r 12.9827586 

STANDARD DEVIATION = 14.5266948 

90 s CONFIDENCE LIMITS -32.8648039 TO 14 

TOTAL OCCURRENCES = 696 


-+ 

+90 


9280222 


CARRIER: BLUE DIRECTION: Westbound 


REGION: North Atlantic 


SPBAS 




i 


76 

74 

72 

70 

6a 

66 

64 

62 

60 

58 

56 

54 

52 

50 

48 

45 

44 

42 

40 

38 

36 

34 

32 

30 

2b 

26 

24 

22 

20 

1b 

16 

14 

12 

10 

8 

6 

4 


I 

»|* 

H|* 

«| » 

» «»|* 

««««[« * 

*•»*« j *»» 

ft«***j»*»» 

«««'!<«[ 

j «««# 

********** 

*********** 

*********** 

************ 

************ 

************ 

************ 

************* 

************* 

* ************* * 

* **************** 
****************** 
ft ft ftftftftftftftftftftftftftftftftftftftft 
ft ftftftftftftftftftftftftftftftftftftftftftftft ft 
ftft ftftftftftftftftftftftftftftftftftftftftftft^ftft ftftft 
ft ftft ftftftftftftftftftftftftftftftftftftftftftftftftftftftftftftftftftftft ft 




NUMBER OF OCCURRENCES BY DIFFERENCE 

Cross-Component Difference in Knots 

Operational Segments MINUS AIDS Derived Segments 

MEAN = -2.97844828 

VARIANCE = 307.702122 

MEAN (ABSOLUTE DIF.)= 13.2284483 
STANDARD DEVIATION r 17.5414401 

90 % confidence LIMITS -31.8341173 TO 25.8772208 

TOTAL OCCURRENCES = 695 

CARRIER; BLUE DIRECTION; Westbound REGION; North Atlantic 


SPFAS 




80 

78 

76 

74 

72 

70 

68 

66 

64 

62 

60 

58 

56 

54 

52 

50 

48 

4b 

44 

42 

40 

38 

36 

34 

32 

30 

28 

26 

24 

22 

20 

18 

16 

14 

12 

10 

8 

6 

4 

2 


* I 

* I 

«« I 
** I 
j 

«« I 
I 

* 1 
* ** ( 

* «« I 
** I 

* *. I 

* 

* «««{} 

«««««« 

#**»»** 

»#*#**»« 

»*#*»«**» 

««««««««« 

*«**»«««»**• •« *• •• 

*■ »«{}»*«»»#** 

» m***^i*^i*^* 

* *********** 

«« ************ 
*************** 
*************** 
*************** 

** ******************** 

[ I .^.i.| — 1 ■■ I III I [ I — II I . 1 - I — I 

■90 -60 -30 0 +30 


+60 


NUMBER OF OCCURRENCES BY DIFFERENCE 



Parallel-Component Difference in Knots 


Operational Segments MINUS AIDS Derived Segments 


MEAN = 
VARIANCE = 
MEAN (ABSOLUTE DIF.)= 
STANDARD DEVIATION = 
90% CONFIDENCE LIMITS 
TOTAL OCCURRENCES = 


-16.9568965 

552.150441 

19.4051724 

23.4978816 

-55.6109119 

696 


TO 21.6971188 


CARRIER; BLUE DIRECTION; Westbound REGION: North Atlantic 


A-11 


. SPEAS 



A-12 


80 

1 * 

78 

1 » 

76 

1 * 

74 

j «« 

72 

{ 

70 

[ «« 

68 

1 «« 

66 

[ *** 

64 

1 ««« 

62 

1 

60 

j »«««» 

58 

1 !»«««« 

5b 

{ «»««« 

54 

1 ««««* 
I 

52 

50 

1 •»***»* 

48 

1 

4b 

1 «««««« 

44 

1 «»«»««« 

42 

1 

40 

1 

38 

1 

36 

1 

] ««}««««« 

34 

32 

j HH*^*t»*** 

30 

\*»***^*H* 

28 

!««««««««« « 

26 

1 

24 

1 

22 

!#»«#***«»** * 

20 

j *«««««««««» « 

18 

!««««»«««««« * 

16 

j X 

14 

1 **xx**«#***x* 

12 


10 


8 

j »x****xa**»x*»*» 

6 

1 xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx* * 

4 

XXXXXXicXXXXAXXXXXXXXXXX* *** X 

2 

«»x»»*»»***»xx**«**x**»xxx»x**» 

.».t— — I — - 1-.— ..I .. 1 . ..I.. ~~ 1 — ~~.l — 1 — — + 


-90 


-60 


-30 


+30 


+60 


+90 


NUMBER OF OCCURRENCES BY DIFFERENCE 


Magnitude of Vector Difference in Knots 
• Operational Segments MINUS AIDS Derived Segriients 


MEAN = 
VARIANCE = 
MEAN (ABSOLUTE DIF.)= 
STANDARD DEVIATION = 
90 % CONFIDENCE LIMITS 
TOTAL OCCURRENCES = 


24.908046 

509.086373 

24.908046 

22.5629425 

-12.2079944 

69b 


TO 62.0240863 


CARRIER; BLUE DIRECTION: Westbound REGION: North Atlantic 




t 

• I 


. i 

I 


! 


4 

It 







80 

78 

76 

74 

72 

70 

68 

66 

6M 

62 

60 

58 

56 

54 

52 

50 

48 

46 

44 

42 

40 

38 

36 

34 

32 

30 

28 

26 

24 

22 

20 

18 

16 

14 

12 

10 

8 

6 

4 

2 


-30 -20 -10 


I A- 13 

I 


I 

I 

I 

I 


I 

I 


I 

I 

I 

I 


1 

I 

I 

1 


I 

1 


I 

1 


* Sft# 

0 +10 +20 +30 


NUMBER OF OCCURRENCES BY DIFFERENCE 


Temperature Difference in Degress Centigrade 
Operational Segments MINUS AIDS Derived Segments 


MEAN = 
VARIANCE = 
MEAN (ABSOLUTE DIF,)= 
STANDARD DEVIATION = 
90? CONFIDENCE LIMITS 
TOTAL OCCURRENCES = 


-1 

3.5 
1 .5 

1.87082869 

-4.0775132 

4 


TO 


2.0775132 


CARRIER: BLUE 


DIRECTION: 


Eastbound 


REGION: Polar 




HUMBER OF OCCURREHCES BY DIFFERENCE 

VJind Direction Difference in Degrees 

Operational Segments MINUS AIDS Derived Segments 

MEAN = 69 

VARIANCE = 12245.5 

MEAN (ABSOLUTE DIF.)= 109 

STANDARD DEVIATION = 110.659387 

90S CONFIDENCE LIMITS -113.034692 TO 251.034692 

TOTAL OCCURREHCES = 4 


CARRIER: BLUE DIRECTION: Eastbound REGION: Polar 


SPEAS 


80 

78 

76 

74 

72 

70 

68 

66 

64 

62 

60 

58 

56 

54 

52 

50 

48 

46 

44 

42 

40 

38 

36 

34 

32 

30 

28 

26 

24 

22 

20 

18 

16 

14 

12 

10 




V/ind Speed Difference in Knots 

Operational Segments MINUS AIDS Derived Segments 


MEAN = -18 

VARIANCE = 256.5 

MEAN (ABSOLUTE DIF.)= 19-5 
STANDARD DEVIATION = 16.0156174 

90% CONFIDENCE LIMITS -44.3456906 TO 8.34569062 

TOTAL OCCURRENCES = 4 


CARRIER: BLUE DIRECTION; Eastbound REGION: Polar 


'C SPEAS 



A-16 


80 

78 

76 

74 

72 

70 

68 

66 

64 

62 

60 

58 

56 

54 

52 

50 

48 

46 

44 

42 

40 

38 

36 

34 

32 

30 

28 

26 

24 

22 

20 

18 

16 

14 

12 

10 

8 

6 

4 

2 

H +— — + 

-go -60 


I 

I 


I 


I 

I 

I 

1 

I 

1 




+30 +60 +90 


NUMBER OF OCCURRENCES BY DIFFERENCE 


Cross-Component Difference in Knots 

Operational Segments MINUS AIDS Derived Segments 

MEAN s -5 

VARIANCE = 164 

MEAN (ABSOLUTE DIF.)= 8.5 
STANDARD DEVIATION = 12.8062485 

go? CONFIDENCE LIMITS -26,0662788 TO 16.0662788 

TOTAL OCCURRENCES = 4 

CARRIER: BLUE DIKECHON: Eastbound REGION: Polar 


SPEAS 


80 

78 

76 

74 

72 

70 

68 

66 

64 

62 

60 

58 

56 

54 

52 

50 

48 

4b 

44 

42 

40 

3« 

36 

34 

32 

30 

28 

26 

24 

22 

20 

18 

16 

14 

12 

10 

8 

6 

4 

2 


1 


» « « « 


« — — ...t 1 — — 

■go -60 -30 0 


+30 +6o 


NUMBER OF OCCURRENCE BY DIFFERENCE 


Parallel-Component Difference in Knots 

Operational Segments MINUS AIDS Derived Segments 


MEAN = 

VARIANCE = 

MEAN (ABSOLUTE DIF. )= 
STANDARD DEVIATION = 

90^ confidence limits 

TOTAL OCCURRENCE = 


-34.25 

138.6875 

34.25 

11.7765657 

-53.6224506 

4 


TO - 


CARRIER; BLUE DIRECTION; Eastbound REION; Polar 


A-17 


+— — + 
+90 


.8775494 


. SPBAS 


A-18 


80 i 

78 I 

76 1 

74 i 

72 I 

70 I 

68 I 

66 I 

64 I 

62 I 

60 I 

58 I 

56 I 

54 I 

52 I 

50 I 

48 I 

46 I 

44 I 

42 I 

40 I 

38 I 

36 I 

34 I 

32 I 

30 i 

28 I 

26 I 

24 I 

22 I 

20 I 

18 I 

16 I 

14 I 

12 I 

10 1 

8 I 

6 i 

4 I 

2 I 

H 4— I . — I I -4“ 

-90 -60 -30 0 


» » « « 

^ +3o" ^ ^ 


-4- 

+90 


NUMBER OF OCCURRENCES BY DIFFERENCE 


Magnicude of Veczor Difference in Knots 


Operational Segments MINUS AIDS Derived Segments 


MEAN = 
VARIANCE 5 
MEAN (ABSOLUTE DIF.)= 
STANDARD DEVIATION = 
90? CONFIDENCE LIMITS 
TOTAL OCCURRENCES = 


35.5 

213.25 

35.5 

14i60308l9 

11.4779303 


4 


TO 59.5220697 


CARRIER; BLUE DIRECTION; Eastbound REGION; Polar 




80 

78 

76 

74 

72 

70 

68 

66 

64 

62 

60 

58 

56 

54 

52 

50 

48 

46 

44 

42 

40 

38 

36 

34 

32 

30 

28 

26 

24 

22 

20 

18 

16 

14 

12 

10 

8 

6 

4 

2 




-30 


-20 


■10 


0 


■hIO 


■h20 


HUMBER OF OCCURRENCES BY DIFFERENCE 

Temperature Difference in Degress Centigrade 

Operational Segments MINUS AIDS Derived Segments 

MEAN = -1 .69230769 

VARIANCE f. 3.13609468 

MEAN (ABSOLUTE DIF.)= 2.15384615 
STANDARD DEVIATION = 1.77090222 

902 CONFIDENCE LIMITS -4.60544185 

TOTAL OCCURRENCES = 13 


TO 


A- 19 


M M «M 

+30 


.22082646 


CARRIER; BLUE 


DIRECTION: V/estbound 


REGION: Polar 


A-20 


30 

78 

76 

74 

72 

70 

68 

66 

64 

62 

60 

58 

56 

54 

52 

50 

48 

46 

44 

42 

40 

38 

36 

34 

32 

30 

28 

26 

24 

22 

20 

18 

16 

14 

12 

10 

8 

6 

4 

2 


a * * ««»}» 

-60 -30 0 +30 


ft 


+60 


NUMBER OF OCCURRENCES BY DIFFERENCE 


V/ind Direction Difference in Degrees 


Operational Segments MINUS AIDS Derived Segments 

MEAN = -17.9230769 

VARIANCE = 2589.76332 

MEAN (ABSOLUTE DIF.)= 43.3076923 

STANDARD DEVIATION = 50.8897172 

90S CONFIDENCE LIMITS -101.636662 TO 65 

TOTAL OCCURRENCES = 13 


— “ — + 
+90 


7905079 


CARRIER: BLUE DIRECTION: Westbound 


REGION: Polar 


SP£AS 


A-Pl 


80 

78 

76 

72 

70 

68 

66 

6i{ 

62 

60 

58 

56 

5^1 

52 

50 

48 

46 

44 

42 

40 

38 

36 

34 

32 

30 

28 

26 

24 

22 

20 

18 

16 

14 

12 

10 

6 

6 

4 

2 






-90 


k >{« M « 

•60 


■ -)- 


-30 


* ** 

0 


• M V 

+30 


+60 


NUMBER OF OCCURRENCES BY DIFFERENCE 


V/ind Speed Difference in Knots 

Operational Segments MINUS AIDS Derived Segments 

MEAN = -11.3846154 

VARIANCE = 337.159764 

MEAN (ABSOLUTE DIF.):: 16.3076923 

STANDARD DEVIATION = 18.3619107 

90% CONFIDENCE LIMITS -41.5899585 TO 

TOTAL OCCURRENCES = 13 


+ + 

+90 


18.8207277 


CARRIER: SLUE DIRECTION: Westbound 


REGION: Polar 


pro SP£AS 


n 

76 

74 

72 

70 

68 

66 

64 

62 

60 

58 

56 

54 

52 

50 

48 

4b 

44 

42 

40 

38 

36 

34 

32 

30 

28 

26 

24 

22 

20 

18 

16 

14 

12 

10 

8 

6 

4 


-90 


1 

» «« «« »|« «« 

■60 -30 0^ +30 

numbilR of occurrences by difference 


Cross-Component Difference in Knots 
Operational Segments MINUS AIDS Derived Segments 


MEAN = 
VARIANCE = 
MEAN (ABSOLUTE DIF,)= 
STANDARD DEVIATION = 
90% CONFIDENCE LIMITS 
TOTAL OCCURRENCES = 


-8.69230769 

250.366864 

15.4615385 

15.8229853 

-34.721 11 86 
13 


TO 11 


CARRIER: BLUE DIRECTION: Westbound REGION: Polar 


A-22 


+90 


.3365032 


pf'C SPEAS 


A-23 


80 

78 

76 

74 

72 

70 

6b 

66 

64 

6?. 

60 

58 

56 

54 

52 

50 

48 

46 

44 

42 

40 

3b 

36 

34 

32 

30 

2b 

26 

24 

22 

20 

1b 

16 

14 

12 

10 

8 

6 

4 

2 


i 


+ 


-60 


« 


■+ 


-30 


* 


I* 

■H + 

0 


+30 +^ *' ii^go 


NUMBER OF OCCURRENCES BY DIFFERENCE 


Parallel-Component Difference in Knots 


Operational Segments MINUS AIDS Derived Segments 


MEAN = 
VARIANCE = 
MEAN (ABSOLUTE DIF.)= 
STANDARD DEVIATION = 
90% CONFIDENCE LIMITS 
TOTAL OCCURRENCES = 


-19.769230° 

275.869823 

20.0769231 

16 . 6093:^94 

-47.0915777 

13 


TO 7.5531161 


CARRIER: BLUE DIRECTION: Westbound REGION: Polar 


Pf^C SPEAS 


80 

78 

76 

74 

72 

70 

68 

66 

64 

62 

60 

53 
56 

54 
52 
50 
48 
4b 
44 
42 
40 
38 
36 
34 
32 
30 
28 
26 
24 
22 
20 
18 
16 
14 
12 
10 

8 

6 

4 

2 

-90 -60 


-30 


|« ** » 

^0 +90 


A-24 


NUMBER OF OCCURRENCES BY DIFFERENCE 


Magnitude of Vector Difference in Knots 


Operational Segments MINUS AIDS Derived Segments 


MEAN = 
VARIANCE = 
MEAN (ABSOLUTE DIF.)= 
STANDARD DEVIATION = 
90% confidence LIMITS 
TOTAL OCCURRENCES = 


26.5384615 

257.171598 

26.5384615 

16.0365706 

.158302828 

13 


TO 52.9186203 


CARRIER; BLUE DIRECTION: Westbound REGION: Polar 


SPEAS 


80 

78 

76 

74 

72 

70 

68 

66 

64 

62 

60 

58 

56 

54 

52 

50 

48 

46 

44 

42 

40 

38 

36 

34 

32 

30 

28 

26 

24 

22 

20 

18 

16 

14 

12 

10 

8 

6 

4 


+-■ 

-30 




ft* 


-20 


-10 


ftft 


+20 


+ 10 


HUMBER OF OCCURRENCES BY DIFFERENCE 

Temperature Difference in Degress Centigrade 

Operational Segments MINUS AIDS Derived Segments 

MEAN = .444444444 

VARIANCE = 10.0246914 

MEAN (ABSOLUTE DIF.)= 2.66666667 

STANDARD DEVIATION = 3-1661793 

905 CONFIDENCE LIMITS -4.76392051 

TOTAL OCCURRENCES = 9 


TO 


A-25 


-+ + 

+30 

.6528094 

pro SPEAS 


CARRIE:<; blue DIRECTION: Eastbound 


REGION; Middle Atlantic 


80 1 A-26 

78 I 

76 I 

74 I 

72 I 

70 |, 

68 1 

66 I 

64 I 

62 I 

60 i 

58 I 

56 I 

54 ! 

52 i 

50 I 

48 i 

46 I 

44 *i 

42 I 

40 i 

38 i 

36 I 

34 I 

32 ! 

30 I 

28 I 

26 I 

24 

22 [ 

20 ! 

18 I 

16 I 

14 ! 

12 I 

10 I 

6 I 

6 I 


2 









-90 

-60 -30 


0 

+30 +60 


+90 



NUMBER OF 

OCCURRENCES 

BY DIFFERENCE 



Wind 

Direction 

Difference 

in 

Degrees 







I 


i 

1 



Operational Segments MINUS AIDS Derived Segments 


13 

6440.00001 

57.8888889 

80.2496106 

-145.01061 TO 119.01061 


CARRIER: BLUE DIRECTION: Eastbound REGION; Middle Atlantic 

trOSPEAS 


MEAN = 
VARIANCE = 
MEAN (ABSOLUTE DIF. )= 
STANDARD DEVIATION = 
90 % CONFIDENCE LIMITS 
TOTAL OCCURRENCES = 


A-27 


80 

78 

76 

74 

72 

70 

68 

66 

64 

62 

60 

58 

56 

54 

52 

50 

48 

46 

44 

42 

40 

38 

36 

34 

32 

30 

28 

26 

24 

22 

20 

18 

16 

14 

12 

10 

8 

6 

4 

2 


4f» S-S* 


+-• 

-90 


■60 


-30 


0 


■ 1.30 


- 1-60 


NUMBER OF OCCURRENCES BY DIFFERENCE 


VJind Speed Difference in Knots 

Operational Segments MINUS AIDS Derived Segments 


MEAN = 
VARIANCE = 
MEAN (ABSOLUTE DIF.)r 
STANDARD DEVIATION = 
90? CONFIDENCE LIMITS 
TOTAL OCCURRENCES = 


-14.4444444 

21.1358025 

14.4444444 

4.59736909 

- 22.0071166 

9 


TO -( 


+— — — — •!• 
- 1-90 


.8817723 


CARRIER: BLUE DIRECTION; Eastbound 


REGION: Middle Atlantic 


ir 0 SPEAS 


A-28 


76 

74 

72 

70 

68 

66 

6i| 

62 

60 

58 

56 

54 

52 

50 

48 

4b 

44 

42 

40 

38 

36 

34 

32 

30 

28 

26 

24 

22 

20 

18 

16 

14 

12 

10 

8 

6 

4 

2 

H H— »-4— 

-90 -60 


* 



—• 

0 


* 

+■ 


*— H" 

+30 


460 ^ +90 


NUMBER OF OCCURRENCES BY DIFFERENCE 


Cross-Component Difference in ECnots 
Operational Segments MINUS AIDS Derived Segments 


MEAN = 
VARIANCE = 
MEAN (ABSOLUTE DIF.)= 
STANDARD DEVIATION = 
90? CONFIDENCE LIMITS 
TOTAL OCCURRENCES = 


193.6875 

10.25 

13.9171657 

-25.6437375 TO 
4 


20.1437375 


CARRIER: BLUE DIRECTION: Eastbound REGION: Middle Atlantic 


SPEAS 



80 

78 

76 

74 

72 

70 

68 

66 

64 

62 

60 

58 

5b 

54 

52 

50 

48 

4b 

44 

42 

40 

38 

36 

34 

32 

30 

28 

26 

24 

22 

20 

18 

16 

14 

12 

10 

8 

6 

4 

2 


A-29 


-90 


« * { 

-H ^ H H H — 

■60 -30 0 +30 +60 

NUMBES OF OCCUHPENCES BY DIFFERENCE 


Parallel-Component Difference in I&ots 

' Operational Segments MINUS AIDS Derived Segments 

17.75 
42.6875 
17.75 

6.53356718 

-28.497718 TO -7.00228199 
4 

CARRIER: BLUE DIRECTION; Eastbound REGION: Middle Atlantic 


MEAN = 
VARIANCE = 
MEAN (ABSOLUTE DIF.)= 
STANDARD DEVIATION = 
90% CONFIDENCE LIMITS 
TOTAL OCCURRENCES = 


! - 

t ' 


f'CsPEAr, 


80 


1 

I 

A- 30 I 

78 


1 

76 




74 


1 


72 


1 

1 

70 


1 

i'' 

68 


1 


66 


1 


64 


I 


62 


1 


60 


1 


58 


1 


55 


1 


54 


1 


52 


1 

J 

50 


1 

1 

48 


1 

i 

4b 


1 


44 


1 

•j 

42 


1 


40 


1 


38 


1 


36 


1 


34 


1 


32 


1 

: 

30 


! 


28 


1 


26 


I 


24 


1 


22 


1 


20 




18 


1 


16 


1 


14 


1 


12 


I 


10 


1 


8 


1 


6 


1 


4 


1 


2 


1 « 


-90 

-60 -30 

0 +30 +60 +90 

• 


NUMBER OF OCCURRENCES BY DIFFERENCE 

• 

Magnitude of Vector Difference 

in Knots 


Operational Segments MINUS AIDS Derived Segments 

i 

1 


MEAN = 

22 



VARIANCE = 

61 



MEAN (ABSOLUTE DIF.)= 

22 

* 


STANDARD DEVIATION = 

7.81024968 

i 


90% CONFIDENCE LIMITS 

9.15213928 TO 34.8478607 

j 

• 

TOTAL OCCURRENCES = 

4 


CARRIER: 

BLUE DIRECTION: Eastbound REGION; Middle Atlantic 

1 




'SrOSPEAS 


I 


A-31 


80 

78 

76 

7A 

72 

70 

68 

66 

6A 

62 

60 

58 

56 

54 

52 

50 

48 

46 

44 

42 

40 

38 

36 

34 

32 

30 

28 

26 

24 

22 

20 

18 

16 

14 

12 

10 

8 

6 

4 

2 


-30 -20 -10 


I 

I 

I 

I 

I 

X 

* 

* ** 

*«**«*«* 

— — — + — — — — — — — + — 
0 +10 +20 


MUMBER OF OCCURRENCES BY DIFFERENCE 


Temperature Difference in Degress Centigrade 
Operational Segments MINUS AIDS Derived Segments 


MEAN = 
VARIANCE = 
MEAN (ABSOLUTE DIF.)= 
STANDARD DEVIATION = 
90S CONFIDENCE LIMITS 
TOTAL OCCURRENCES = 


- 1 .03125 
3.03027344 
1.46875 . 

1 .74076806 

-3.89481346 

32 


TO 


+ + 

+30 


.83231346 


CARRIER: BLUE 


DIRECTION: VJestbound 


REGION: Middle Atlantic 


SPBAS 



80 


I 


A-3 

78 


I 



76 


I 



74 


I 



72 


I 



70 





68 


1 

1 



66 


! 



64 


1 

1 



62 


1 



60 


1 



58 


1 



56 


i 



54 


1 



52 


1 



50 


1 



48 


1 



46 


! 



44 


1 



42 


t 



40 


1 



38 


1 

1 



36 


1 



34 


1 



32 


1 

1 



30 


1 



28 


1 

1 



26 


f 

1 



24 


1 

1 



22 


1 



20 


1 



18 


» j 



16 


1 

1 



14 


1 

1 



12 


1 



10 


< 

1 



8 


1 

1 



6 


1 



4 


1 ^ 



2 » 


5 5 S# ftwjifSTcwSlt ft, 

X 

it 

*4« 

-90 


-60 -30 0 +30 

+60 ' 

+90 


HUMBER OF OCCURREMCES BY DIFFERENCE 


V/ind Direction Difference in Degrees 


Operational Segments MINUS AIDS Derived Segments 


MEAN r 
VARIANCE = 
MEAN (ABSOLUTE DIF.)= 
STANDARD DEVIATION = 
90? CONFIDENCE LIMITS 
TOTAL OCCURREMCES = 


.9375 

5783.5586 

56.75 

76.049711 4 

-124.164275 

32 


TO 


126.039275 


irC SP£AS 


CARRIER; BLUE DIRECTION; Westbound 


REGION; Middle Atlantic 



A-33 


80 

78 

76 

74 

72 

70 

68 

66 

64 

62 

60 

58 

56 

54 

52 

50 

48 

46 

44 

42 

40 

38 

36 

34 

32 

30 

28 

26 

24 

22 

20 

18 

16 

14 

12 

10 

8 

6 

4 

2 


-90 -60 





* 




• 

0 


TT 

+ 


— •f'**— — — 

+30 


+60 +90 


HUMBER OF OCCURRENCES BY DIFFERENCE 


Wind Speed Difference in Knots 

Operational Segments MINUS AIDS Derived Segments 

MEAN = -5 

VARIANCE = 129.625 

MEAN (ABSOLUTE DIF.)= 9.4375 
STANDARD DEVIATION = 11.3852976 

903 CONFIDENCE LIMITS -23.7288145 TO 13.7288145 

TOTAL OCCURRENCES z 32 

CARRIER: BLUE DIRECTION: Westbound REGION: Middle Atlantic 



80 A-34 


78 


1 

76 


I 

74 


I 

72 


1 

70 


1 

68 


1 

66 


1 

64 


1 

62 


1 

60 


1 

58 


1 

56 


1 

54 


1 

52 


1 

50 


1 

48 


1 

48 


1 

44 


1 

42 


1 

40 


1 

3b 


1 

36 


1 

34 


1 

32 


1 

30 


1 

2b 


1 

26 


1 

24 


1 

22 


1 

20 


1 

1b 


1 

16 


I 

14 


1 

12 


1 

10 


1 

8 


I 

6 


1 

4 


* 1 « 

2 



+- 

— j 



-90 -60 -30 0 +30 +60 +90 


NUMBER OF OCCURRENCES BY DIFFERENCE 


Cross-Component Difference in Knots 
Operational Segments MINUS AIDS Derived Segments 


MEAN = 
VARIANCE = 
MEAN (ABSOLlTi'E DIF,)= 
STANDARD DEVIATION = 
905S confidence LIMITS 
TOTAL OCCURRENCES = 


0 

173.909091 

11.8181818 

13.1874596 

-21.6933711 

22 


TO 21.6933711 


CARRIER: BLUE DIRECTION: Westbound REGION; Middle Atlantic 


ir '^SPEAS 


A- 35 


80 

78 

76 

74 

72 

70 

68 

66 

64 

62 

60 

58 

5b 

54 

52 

50 

48 

4fa 

44 

42 

40 

38 

36 

34 

32 

30 

28 

26 

24 

22 

20 

18 

16 

14 

12 

10 

8 

6 

4 


2 « 

H , I , —.4— — H — H •< — H 4 — + 

-go -60 -30 0 +30 4^0 +90 


NUMBER OF OCCURRENCES BY DIFFERENCE 


Parallel-Component Difference in Knots 


Operational Segments MINUS AIDS Derived Segments 


MEAN = 
VARIANCE = 
MEAN (ABSOLUTE DIF.)= 
STANDARD DEVIATION = 
90% CONFIDENCE LIMITS 
TOTAL OCCURRENCES = 


-10.4545455 
137 .520661 
12.9090909 

11.7269204 

- 29,7453295 TO 

22 


8.83623856 


zrc SPEAS 


CARRIER: BLUE DIRECnON: Westbound 


REGION: Middle Atlantic 


A-36 


80 

78 

76 

74 

72 

70 

68 

66 

t54 

62 

60 

58 

5b 

54 

52 

50 

48 

4b 

44 

42 

40 

3« 

36 

34 

32 

3C 

2d 

26 

24 

22 

20 

1b 

16 

14 

12 

10 

8 

6 

4 

2 


I 

I 


+ 


-60 



+60 +90 


NUMBER OF OCCURRENCES BY DIFFERENCE 


Magnitude of Vector Difference in I^nots 


Operational Segments MINUS AIDS Derived Segments 


MEAN = 
VARIANCE = 
MEAN (ABSOLUTE DIF.)= 
STANDARD DEVIATION = 
90? CONFIDENCE LIMITS 
TOTAL OCCURRENCES = 


18.4545455 

71.5206612 

18.4545455 

8.4569889 

4.54279871 

22 


TO 32.3662922 


CARRIER: BLUE DIRECTION: Westbound REGION: Middle Atlantic 




. ' r.. 

Operational Segments MINUS AIDS Derived Segments 

RMS or Vector Error = 33«6669U38 
TOTAL OCCURRENCES = 393 

CARRIER: BLUE DIRECTION: Eastbound REGION: North Atlantic 

% 

Operational Segments MINUS AIDS Derived Segments 

* RMS of Vector Error = 33*607992 

TOTAL OCCURRENCES = 69b 

CARRIER: BLUE DIRECTION: Westbound REGION; North Atlantic 

f 

Operational Segments MINUS AIDS Derived Segments i 

RMS or Vector Error = 38*3861955 i 

TOTAL. OCCURRENCES = 4 I 

CARRIER: BLUE DIRECTION: Eastbound REGION: Polar 

Operational Segnents MINUS AIDS Derived Segments 

RMS of Vector Error = 31 .0074433 ^ 

TOTAL OCCURRENCES =13 

CARRIER: BLUE DIRECTION: Westbound REGION; Polar 
Operational Segm'7'its MINUS AIDS Derived Segments 

'f 

RMS or Vector Error = 23*3452351 

TOTAL OCCURRENCES = 4 

CARRIER; BLUE DIRECTION; Eastbound REGION; Middle Atlantic 

Operational Segments MINUS AIDS Derived Segments 

RMS or Vector Error = 20*3000224 

TOTAL OCCURRENCES = 22 

CARRIER: BLUE DIRECTION; Westbound REGION: Middle Atlantic i 

i 

j 

i. 

'T^spbas I 



9 


A- 38 




& S ^ £ 

w S S w vf # * 

««*w«K5«« 

K S * S -S * S # if * 

5- ir -S’ if "S 5 w ■}? IT ii if w S 

S* if *» * 5 3 # « if »• if » » -6 « S 


NUMBER OF OCCURRENCES BY DIFFERENCE 

Temperature Difference in Degress Centigrade 

Operational Segments MINUS AIDS Derived Segments 

MEAN = 1.96341465 

VARIANCE = 12.5718323 

MEAN (ABSOLUTE DIF.)= 3-07317073 
STANDARD DEVIATION = 3.54567797 

90S CONFIDENCE LIMITS -3.86922563 "0 7.79605489 

TOTAL OCCURRENCES = 164 


CARRIER: RED 


DIRECTION: Eastbound 


REGION: North Atlantic 


w • Sf'EA3 



A-39 


80 

78 

76 

74 

72 

70 

68 

66 

64 

62 

60 

58 

56 

54 

52 

50 

48 

46 

44 

42 

40 

38 

36 

34 

32 

30 

28 

26 

24 

22 

20 

18 

16 

14 

12 

10 

8 

6 

4 

2 


-90 


I 

I 


I 

I 

I 

I 

1 


Kx » 

S * S 

» « “ -f « Jf " S X- » if * » 

S«* »»* a 

-60 -30 0 +30 +60 


NUMBER OF OCCURRENCES BY DIFFERENCE 


Wind Direction Difference in Degrees 
Operational Segments MINUS AIDS Derived Segments 


MEAN = 
VARIANCE = 
MEAN (ABSOLUTE DIF.)= 
STANDARD DEVIATION = 
905 CONFIDENCE LIMITS 
TOTAL OCCURRENCES = 


1 .93939394 
321 .911479 
13.4545455 
17.9418917 

-27.575018 

165 


TO 


3 


+90 


.4538058 


CARRIER: RED 


DIRECTION: Eastbound 


REGION: North Atlantic 


A-40 


80 

78 

76 

74 

72 

70 

68 

66 

64 

62 

60 

58 

56 

54 

52 

50 

48 

46 

44 

42 

40 

38 

36 

34 

32 

30 

28 

26 

24 

22 

20 

18 

16 

14 

12 

10 

8 

6 

4 

2 


I 

I 

I 


5 jr * 

« * ft 


ft 


ft ft « 


ftftft ft Sftft* ft 
ftftftftft ftftftftft* ft 
ftftftftftSftftftftftftftftft 
ftftftftftftSftftftftftftftftft ft 
ft ft ft ft ft ft ft ftf ft ft ft ft ft ft ft ft ft ft ft ft 


ft 


+ 1 --, + + + __+ + 1 - 

-90 -60 -30 0 +30 +60 


-+ 

+90 


NUMBER OF OCCURRENCES BY DIFFERENCE 


VJind Speed Difference in Knots 

Operational Segments MINUS AIDS Derived L^egments 


MEAN = 
VARIANCE = 
MEAN (ABSOLUTE DIF.)= 
STANDARD DEVIATION = 
90% CONFIDENCE LIMITS 
TOTAL OCCURRENCES = 


-6.3939394 

339.172085 

15.3393939 

18.4166252 

-36.6892879 

165 


TO 


23.9014091 


CARRIER: RED 


DIRECTION: Eastbourid 


REGION: North Atlantic 


SPEAS 


80 

7a 

76 

74 

12 

70 

6a 

66 

64 

62 

60 

58 

5b 

54 

52 

50 

48 

4b 

44 

42 

40 

38 

36 

34 

32 

30 

28 

26 

24 

22 

20 

1b 

16 

14 

12 

10 

8 

6 

4 

2 » 
-90 -60 


I 

I 


1 


I 

I 


1 


j 

#*«[ » 

#* # 

««««««««« « ** * 

H 4 «-H 4 

-30 0 +30 +60 


NUMBER OF OCCURRENCES BY DIFFERENCE 


-+ 

+90 


A-41 


Cross-Component Difference in Biiots 


Operational Segments MINUS AIDS Derived Segments 


MEAN = 
VARIANCE = 
MEAN (ABSOLUTE DIF.)= 
STANDARD DEVIATION = 
90% CONFIDENCE LIMITS 
TOTAL OCCURRENCES = 


3.35757576 

380.944868 

14.8121212 

19.517809 

-28.74922 

165 


TO 


35.4643716 


CARRIER; RED DIRECTION: Eastbound REGION; North Atlantic 


0 SPEAS 


A-42 


80 

78 

76 

74 

72 

70 

68 

66 

64 

62 

60 

58 

5b 

54 

52 

50 

48 

4fa 

44 

42 

40 

38 

36 

34 

32 

30 

28 

26 

24 

22 

20 

18 

16 

14 

12 

10 

8 

6 

4 

2 


-90 




** * 


'+■ 


'+• 




'■H 


■+• 


-60 


-30 


+30 


+60 


NUMBER OF OXURRENCES BY DIFFERENCE 


~+ 

+90 


Parallel-Component Difference in Knots 


Operational Segments MINUS AIDS Derived Segments 


MEAN = 
VARIANCE = 
MEAN (ABSOLUTE DIF.)= 
STANDARD DEVIATION = 
90% CONFIDENCE LIMITS 
TOTAL OCCURRENCES = 


- 9.20606061 

347.339358 

16.1272727 

18.6370426 

-39.8639957 

165 


TO 21.4518745 


, i SPEAS 


CARRIER: RED DIRECTION: Eastbound 


REGION: North Atlantic 


I **** ff * 

I 

I a 

{««««»«»«»««*« * 

I ««»«*«««««««««« «« 
»««»«««««««««««««««« 


NUMBER OF OCCURRENCES BY DIFFERENCE 


Magnitude of Vector Difference 


in Knots 


Operational Segments MINUS AIDS Derived Segments 

MEAN = 23.9515152 

VARIANCE = 240.288559 

MEAN (ABSOLUTE DIF.)= 23.9515152 
STANDARD DEVIATION = 15*5012438 

90% CONFIDENCE LIMITS -1.54803086 TO 49.4510612 

TOTAL OCCURRENCES - 165 


CARRIER: RED DIRECTION:- Eastbound REGION: North Atlantic 


ore spsAs 



A-44 


80 

78 

76 

74 

72 

70 

68 

66 

64 

62 

60 

58 

56 

54 

52 

50 

48 

46 

44 

42 

40 

38 

36 

34 

32 

30 

28 

26 

24 

22 

20 

18 

16 

14 

12 

10 

8 

6 

4 

2 


■it 
* 
a 
» 

j 

j 

j w w * 

S if vi if if 

ftS ififft 
if S if if if 
3 ilif if if 
3 if » if it 
«»«ff3““ 

3 3 # if if 3 w 3 3 
3 X S 3 w if if if 3 if 3 
3 » 33 » 33333 * 
if 3 3 3 3 if if 3 3 3 3 
3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 it 3 
333333333333 
3333333333333333 


f3333S33333333S3333 333 


-30 


.20 


•lo 


■+■ 

0 


+ 10 


+20 


NUMBER OF OCCURRENCES BY DIFFERENCE 


Temperature Difference in Degress Centigrade 


Operational Segments MINUS AIDS Derived Segments 


MEAN = 
VARIANCE = 
MEAN (ABSOLUTE DIF.)= 
STANDARD DEVIATION = 
90% CONFIDENCE LIMITS 
TOTAL OCCURRENCES = 


1 .6941896 
13.0746757 
3.04587156 
3.6158921 1 

-4.25395292 

327 


TO 


CARRIER: RED 


+— ” “ “ + 

+30 


.64233213 


DIRECTION: Westbound 


REGION: North Atlantic 


. SPEAS 


A-45 


80 

78 

76 

74 

72 

70 

68 

66 

64 

62 

60 

58 

56 

54 

52 

50 

48 

■46 

44 

42 

40 

38 

36 

34 

32 

30 

28 

26 

24 

22 

20 

18 

16 

14 

12 

10 

8 

6 

4 

2 


I* 

* 

ft ftftftftftftft 
ft ft ft ft ft ft ft ft ft ft 
ftftftft ftftftftftftftft 
ftftftftft ftftftftftftSSft 
Sftftftftftftftft ftftftftftftftft 
ftftftftftftftftftftftftftftftftft 


■ 90 


ftft ftftft 


-+- 

-60 


ft 
ft 

ft jS {; 1; * # ft * * # * # * * '.f # # ft ft X 
ftftft ftftftftftftftft ftftftftft ft ftftftftft* ftft 
ftftftftftftftftftftftftftftftftftftftftftftftftSftftftftftftftft 

-30 0 +30 


NUMBER OF OCCURRENCES BY DIFFERENCE 


ft* ft 


+60 


V/ind Direction Difference in Degrees 

Operational Segments MINUS AIDS Derived Segments 

MEAN = -2.03669725 

VARIANCE = 1142.64086 

MEAN (ABSOLUTE DIF.)= 21.706422 
STANDARD DEVIATION = 33.8029711 

90? CONFIDENCE LIMITS -57.6425848 

TOTAL OCCURRENCES = 32? 


TO 


ft ft ftftft 

--+ -+ 

+90 


53.5691903 


CARRIER: RED 


DIRECTION: VJestbound 


REGION: North Atlantic 


*** '■ 


- SPEAS 


80 




I 

78 




I 

76 




I 

74 




I 

72 




I 

70 




I 

68 




I 

66 




I 

64 




I 

62 




I 

60 




I 

58 




I 

56 




I 

54 




I 

52 




I 

50 




I 

48 




I 

46 




1 

1 

44 




\ 

\ 

42 




1 

40 




1 

1 

38 




1 

36 




« 1 

34 




* 1 

32 




« 1 * 

30 




^ 1 * 

28 




Si} S S 

26 





24 




if S if # T? ttw 

22 




*««««&« 

20 





18 





16 





14 





12 





10 





3 




ft* SftSftftftftftftftftft* 

6 




ft* ft ft S*ft ft ft ft ft ft ft * ft ft ft ft 

4 




ft ft ft ft ft ft ft ft ft ft ft ft ft ft ft ft ft ft ft a ft 

• 2 



X 

ftftft ******** ftftftftftftftftft ft* 


+ — 



1 

+ 

i 

1 

1 

1 

+ 

1 

1 

1 

1 

+ 

1 

I 

1 

1 

+ 

1 

1 

1 

1 

+ 

1 

1 

1 

1 

+ 

1 


-90 


-60 

-30 0 +30 


NUMBER OF OCCURRENCES BY DIFFERENCE 


V^ind Speed Difference in ICnots 


Operations! Segments MINUS AIDS Derived Segments 


MEAN z 
VARIANCE z 
MEAN (ABSOLUTE DIF.)z 
STANDARD DEVIATION z 
90? CONFIDENCE LIMITS 
TOTAL OCCURRENCES z 


-4.24464832 
206 .723022 
1 1 .4984709 
14.3778657 

-27.8962374 

327 


TO 1 


A-46 


+90 


9.4069408 


CARRIER: RED DIRECTION: Westbound 


REGION: North Atlantic 


A-47 


76 

74 

72 

70 

68 

66 

64 

62 

60 

58 

56 

54 

52 

50 

48 

4b 

44 

42 

40 

3b 

36 

34 

32 

30 

28 

26 

24 

22 

20 

18 

16 

14 

12 

10 

8 

6 

4 

2 


-90 


* 

«i«« 

« «« I «« 

« ****** 

« «««««« 

********** 

************** 

**************** 


»« 


-60 


'+■ 


'+■ 


-30 




+30 


+60 


— + 
+90 


NUMBER OF OCCURRENCES BY DIFFERENCE 


Cross-Component Difference in Knots 

Operational Segments MINUS AIDS Derived Segments 

MEAN = -3.11009174 

VARIANCE = 210.948125 

MEAN (ABSOLUTE DIF.)= 11.3363914 
STANDARD DEVIATION = 14.5240533 
905S CONFIDENCE LIMITS -27.0021595 

TOTAL OCCURRENCES = 327 


TO 20.781976 


CARRIER: FED DIRECTION: Westbound REGION: North Atlantic 


i,' Z SPEAS 


80 

1 

78 

1 

76 

1 

74 

! 

72 

1 

70 

I 

68 

1 

66 

1 

64 

1 

62 

1 

60 

1 

58 

1 

56 

! 

54 

1 

52 

I 

50 

1 

48 

1 

46 

1 

44 

1 

42 

I 

40 

1 

38 

» 1 

36 

« [ 

34 

« 1 

32 

* I 

30 

[ 

28 

«««[ 

26 

1 

24 


22 


20 


18 


16 

**********n « 

14 


12 


10 


8 


6 


4 



+~— — H I— — I — — H — .»H — H H — + 

-90 -60 -30 0 +30 460 +90 

NUMBER OF OCCURRENCES BY DIFFERENCE 


Parallel-Component Difference in Knots 


Operational Segments ttENUS AIDS Derived Segments 


MEAN = 
VARIANCE = 
MEAN (ABSOLUTE DIF.)= 
STANDARD DEVIATION = 
90? CONFIDENCE LIMITS 
TOTAI. OCCURRENCES = 


-7.550458T2 

217.091491 

12.8470948 

14.7340249 

-31 .7879298 
327 


TO 


16.6870123 


CARRIER; RED DIRECTION; Westbound REGION; North Atlantic 


_ i O SPEAS 



A-49 


80 

78 

76 

74 

72 

70 

68 

66 

64 

62 

60 

58 

56 

54 

52 

50 

48 

46 

44 

42 

40 

38 

36 

34 

32 

30 

28 

26 

24 

22 

20 

ia 

16 

14 

12 

10 

8 

6 

4 

2 

-90 -60 -30 


I « « 

I « 

I »« » 

I nn**** 

I 

j 

I 

I »«««»«« 

I ««««««« 

I 

I «««««««« 

I **im»**** 

I ********** 

I 

I 

I * 

!««««««««««««« 

I »«« * 

* * 

4^***— **^***»f**********' | » — lil|l>l| ■■IIIIMWl j 

0 +30 +60 


NUMBER OF OCCURRENCES BY DIFFERENCE 


-+ 

+90 


Magnitude of Vector Difference in ECnots 


Operational Segments MINUS AIDS Derived Segments 


MEAN s 
VARIANCE = 
MEAN (ABSOLUTE DIF.)= 
STANDARD DEVIATION = 
90% CONFIDENCE LIMITS 
TOTAL OCCURRENCES s 


18.6636086 

131.788982 

18.6636086 

11.4799382 

-.220889824 

327 


TO 


37.548107 


CARRIER: RED DIRECTION: Westbound REGION: North Atlantic 


«.[ O spws 


I 


80 

78 

76 

74 

72 

70 

68 

66 

64 

62 

60 

58 

56 

54 

52 

50 

48 

46 

44 

42 

40 

38 

36 

34 

32 

30 

28 

26 

24 

22 

20 

18 

16 

14 

12 

10 

8 

6 

4 

2 


A-BO 


■jt 

* K •» iJ » 


+ -• 
-30 


-20 


•+— - 

.10 


* * 

-+. 


+10 


■ _+_. 
+20 


■ - + 
+30 


NUMBER OF OCCURRENCE-S BY DIFFERENCE 
Temperature Difference in Degress Centigrade 
Operational Segments MINUS AIDS Derived Segments 


MEAN = 
VARIANCE = 
MEAN (ABSOLUTE DIF.)= 
STANDARD DEVIATION = 
90? CONFIDENCE LIMITS 
TOTAL OCCURRENCES z 


-.694444444 

10.2677469 

2.75 

3.20433252 

-5.96557145 

36 


TO 


i 

5 


I 


4.57668256 


I 


i 

tl 


CARRIER: REO DIRECTION: Eastbound REGION: Polar 


0 SPSAS 




A-51 


SO 

78 

76 

7^< 

72 

70 

68 

66 

64 

62 

60 

58 

56 

54 

52 

50 

48 

46 

44 

42 

40 

38 

36 

3 ^ 

32 

30 

28 

26 

24 

22 

20 

18 

16 

14 

12 

10 

8 

6 

4 

2 


ft * ft 

ft ft* ftftftftftftftftftft ftft 


ftft ft 


-90 


•60 


.«+— 

-30 


H- 

0 


+30 


+60 


NUMBER OF OCCURRENCES P;. DIFFERENCE 


V/ind Direction Difference in Degrees 


Operational Segments MINUS AIDS Derived Segments 


MEAN = 
VARIANCE = 
MEAN (ABSOLUTE DIF.)z 
STANDARD DEVIATION s 
90? CONFIDENCE LIMITS 
TOTAL OCCURRENCES = 


-3.80555556 

1738.26775 

22.25 

41.6925383 

-72.3897311 

36 


TO 6 


+ + 

+90 


4.7786699 


CARRIER; RED 


DIRECTION; Eastbound 


REGION; Polar 


SPEAS 


80 

78 

76 

74 

72 

70 

68 

66 

64 

62 

60 

58 

56 

54 

52 

50 

48 

46 

44 

42 

40 

38 

36 

34 

32 

30 

28 

26 

24 

22 

20 

18 

16 

14 

12 

10 

8 

6 

4 

2 


-90 -60 -30 0 +30 +60 

HUMBER OF OCCURRENCES DIFFERENCE 
Wind Speed Difference in Knots 


« 

s 




4? # ^ w ^5 w 7? w 1 


Operational Segments MINUS AIDS Derived Segments 


MEAN = 
VARIANCE = 
MEAN (ABSOLUTE DIF.)= 
STANDARD DEVIATION = 
905 CONFIDENCE LIMITS 
TOTAL OCCURRENCES = 


-5.72222223 

308.811729 

12.3888889 

17.5730398 

-34.6298728 

36 


TO 


23 


A-52 


*r 

+90 


1854283 


CARRIER: RED 


DIRECTION: Eastbound 


REGION; Polar 


S^EAS 


80 

78 

76 

7n 

72 

70 

68 

66 

64 

62 

60 

58 

56 

54 

52 

50 

48 

4b 

44 

42 

40 

38 

36 

34 

32 

30 

28 

26 

24 

22 

20 

18 

16 

14 

12 

10 

8 

6 

4 


» 


« 

* * 


««« «««««{*«» » 


-90 -60 -30 0 +30 +60 

NUiBER OF XCURRENCES BY DIFFERENCE 

Cross-Component Difference in Knots 

Operational Segments MINUS AIDS Derived Segments 

MEAN = ,638888889 

VARIANCE = 92,73071 

MEAN (ABSOLUTE DIF,)= 7.58333334 

STANDARD DEVIATION = 9.62967861 

90S CONFIDENCE LIMITS -15.2019324 TO 1 

TOTAL OCCURRENCES = 36 


CARRIER: RED DIRECTION; Eastbound REGION; Polar 


A- 53 


+90 


.4797102 


SPSAS 


A-54 


80 

76 

74 

72 

70 

68 

66 

64 

62 

60 

58 

56 

54 

52 

50 

48 

4b 

44 

42 

40 

36 

36 

34 

32 

30 

28 

26 

24 

22 

20 

18 

16 

14 

12 

10 

8 

6 

4 

2 


! 

I 

I 

I 

t 

J 

I 

I 

I 

I 

I 


I 


I 

1 


I 

I 


I 

I 


* « « » 





-90 -60 -30 0 






NUMBER OF OCCURRENCES BY DIFFERENCE 


Parallel-Component Difference in Knots 


Operational Segments MINUS AIDS Derived Segments 


MEAN s 
VARIANCE = 
MEAN (ABSOLUTE DIF.)= 
STANDARD DEVIATION s 
90% CONFIDENCE LIMITS 
TOTAL OCCURRENCES = 


-8,72222223 

400.533951 

15.1111111 

20.0133443 

-41.6441737 

36 


TO 24.1997292 


S," 


CARRIER; RED DIRECTION; Eastbound 


REGION; Polar 


A-55 


8o 

78 

76 

74 

72 

70 

68 

66 

64 

62 

60 

58 

56 

54 

52 

50 

48 

4b 

44 

42 

40 

38 

36 

34 

32 

30 

28 

26 

24 

22 

20 

18 

16 

14 

12 

10 

8 

6 

4 

2 


» 

I 


I 

I 


j» X 
j xxxxxx 

{XXXXXtfXX* 5 « X X« * 

-60 '' ^30 0 "* 460 '' +90 

NUMBER OF OCCURRENCES BY DIFFERENCE 


MagrilTiude of Vector Difference in Knots 


Operational Segments MINUS AIDS Derived Segments 


MEAN 5 
VARIANCE = 
MEAN (ABSOLUTE DIF.)= 
STANDARD DEVIATION = 
90$ CONFIDENCE LIMITS 
TOTAL OCCURRENCES = 


18.0833333 

240.465278 

18.0833333 

15.5069429 

-7.42558775 

36 


TO 43.5922544 


CARRIER: RED DIRECTION: Eastbound 


REGION: Polar 


A-56 


80 

78 

76 

74 

72 

70 

68 

66 

64 

62 

60 

58 

56 

54 

52 

50 

48 

46 

44 

42 

40 

38 

36 

34 

32 

30 

28 

26 

24 

22 

20 

18 

16 

14 

12 

10 

8 

6 

4 

2 


7f 






-30 


.20 


-10 


0 


+ 10 


+20 


NUMBER OF OCCURRENCES BY DIFFERENCE 


Temperature Difference in Degress Centigrade 

Operational Segments MINUS AIDS Derived Segments 

MEAN = .391304348 

VARIANCE = 11.1077505 

MEAN (ABSOLUTE DIF.)= 2.65217391 

STANDARD DEVIATION = 3.3328292 

90 % CONFIDENCE LIMITS -5.09119969 

TOTAL OCCURRENCES r 46 


TO 


+ + 
+30 


.87380838 


CARRIER: RED 


DIRECTION: V/estbound 


REGION: Polar 


SPEAS 


A-57 


80 

1 



78 

1 



76 

I 



74 

1 



72 

1 

1 



70 

1 

1 



68 

1 



66 

1 



64 

\ 

\ 



62 

1 



60 

I 



58 

1 



56 

! 



54 

1 

1 



52 

1 

1 



50 

1 

J 



48 

t 

1 



46 

1 



44 

1 

1 



42 

1 



40 

1 

1 



38 

1 

1 



36 

1 



34 

1 

1 



32 

1 

1 



30 

1 

1 



28 

1 

1 



26 

1 

1 



24 

1 



22 

f 

1 



20 

1 

1 



18 

1 

1 



16 

1 

\ 



14 

1 

1 



12 

1 

1 



10 

1 

1 



8 

1 

t 



6 

« j 



4 

# If-S 1 



2 * 


* » « s « » » * 






-90 

-60 -30 0 

+30 

+60 


NUMBEH OF OCCURRENCES BY DIFFERENCE 




•• + 

+90 


V/ind Direction Difference in Degrees 

Operational Segments MINUS AIDS Derived Segments 

MEAN = -2.61702128 

VARIANCE = 1122.32141 

MEAN (ABSOLUTE DIF.)= 24.787234 
STANDARD DEVIATION = 33.5010659 

90% CONFIDENCE LIMITS -57.7262746 

TOTAL OCCURRENCES r 47 

DIRECTION: Westbound 


TO 52.4922321 


CARRIER: RED 


REGION: Polar 


- SPEAS 


A-58 


80 

78 

76 

74 

72 

70 

68 

66 

64 

62 

60 

58 

56 

54 

52 

50 

48 

46 

44 

42 

40 

38 

36 

34 

32 

30 

28 

26 

24 

22 

20 

18 

16 

14 

12 

10 

8 

6 

4 

2 




if 




-90 


-60 


-30 


0 


+30 


+60 


HUMBER OF OCCURRENCES BY DIFFERENCE 


Wind Speed Difference in Knots 


Operational Segments MINUS AIDS Derived Segments 


MEAN = 

VARIANCE = 

MEAN (ABSOLUTE DIF. )= 
STANDARD DEVIATION 
90 % CONFIDENCE LIMITS 
TOTAL OCCURRENCES = 


-9.14893617 

233.616116 

14 

15.2845053 

-34.2919482 

47 


TO 1 


+ + 

+90 


5.9940758 


CARRIER: RED 


DIRECTION: Vfestbound 


REGION; Polar 


. SPEAS 


15 

76 

74 

72 

70 

68 

66 

64 

62 

60 

58 

56 

54 

52 

50 

48 

4b 

44 

42 

40 

38 

36 

34 

32 

30 

28 

26 

24 

22 

20 

18 

16 
14 
12 
10 
8 
6 
4 
2 


-go 


» 

« 

* 

« » 
««« « 


A-59 








-60 


- 4 - 


■ 4 - 


' 4 - 


-30 


4-30 


460 


— + 
+90 


NUMBER OF OCCURRENCES BY DIFFERENCE 


Cross-Component Difference in Knots 

Operational Segments MINUS AIDS Derived Segments 

MEAN = -2 

VARIANCE = 141.191489 

MEAN (ABSOLUTE DIFjr 9.19148937 
STANDARD DEVIATION = 11.8824025 
90% CONFIDENCE LIMITS -21.5465521 

TOTAL OCCURRENCES = 47 


TO 17.5465521 


CARRIER: RED DiRECnON: Westbound REGION; Polar 


J SP£AS 


A-60 


80 

78 

76 

74 

72 

70 

68 

66 

64 

62 

60 

58 

56 

54 

52 

50 

48 

4b 

44 

42 

40 

36 

36 

34 

32 

30 

28 

26 

24 

22 

20 

18 

16 

14 

12 

10 

8 

6 

4 

2 


-90 


» 


-60 


>4* 


.4- 


' 4 “ 


-30 


+30 


460 


NUMBER OF OCCURRENCES BY DIFFERENCE 


Parallel-Component Difference in Knots 

Operational Segments MINUS AIDS Derived Segments 

MEAN = -12.0212766 

VARIANCE = 218,488909 

MEAN (ABSOLUTE DIF.)= 15-0851064 
STANDARD DEVIATION = 14-7813704 
90? CONFIDENCE LIMITS -36-3366308 

TOTAL OCCURRENCES = 47 


TO 


CARRIER: RED DIRECTION; Westbound REGION: Polar 


+90 


12.2940776 


. SPBAS 


. 80 
78 
76 
• 74 

72 
70 
68 
66 
64 
62 
60 
58 
5b 
54 
52 
50 
48 
4fa 
44 
42 
40 
. 3« 

36 

34 

32 

30 

2b 

26 

24 

22 

20 

1b 

16 

14 

12 

10 

8 

6 

4, 

2 

+— — f— 

-50 -60 


+ 


-30 


■+ 


I » 

I « * 

I » 

; « »«««» 9 * 
I «««««««» 



9 


•f60 +90 


A*61 


I 


i 


^^UMBEH OF OCCURRENCES BY DIFFERENCE 


Magnitude of Vector Difference in Knots 


Operational Segments MINUS AIDS Derived Segments 


MEAN = 
VARIANCE = 
MEAN (ABSOLUTE DIF.)= 
STANDARD DEVIATION = 
90? CONFIDENCE LIMITS 
TOTAL OCCURRENCES = 


18.9574468 

138.338615 

18.9574468 

11.7617437 

-.390621595 

47 


TO 38.3055152 


CARRIER: RED DIRECTION: Westbound REGION: Polar 


, SPEAS 


A- 62 


OperatlonaJL Segiients MINUS AIDS Derived Segments 

BMS of Vector Error = 28,530048 
TOTAL OCCURRENCES = 165 

CARRIER: RED DIRECTION; Eastbound REGION; North Atlantic 


Operational Segments MINUS AIDS Derived Segments 

RMS of Vector Error s 21.911624 
TOTAL OCCURRENCES = 327 

CARRIER; RED DIRECTION; Westbound REGION; North Atlantic 


Operational Segm^ita MINUS AIDS Derived Segments 

RMS Qi Vector Error = 23.8216755 
TOTAL OCCURRENCES = 36 

CARRIER: RED DIRECTION; Eastbound REGION; Polar 

Operational Segments MINUS AIDS Derived Segments 

RMS Of Vector Error = 22.3097155 
TOTAL OCCURRENCES = 47 

CARRIER; RED DIRECHON: Westbound REGION; Polar